title
stringlengths 4
2.73k
| content
stringlengths 1
843k
⌀ | category
stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
Life under lockdown in China: hospital queues and empty streets | In hospitals across Wuhan, the city at the centre of the new coronavirus outbreak, there is panic and despair. Patients wearing masks queue for hours, waiting to be called by nurses. Staff who have worked endless shifts are forced to turn many away. Pharmacies are running out of supplies.
A lack of diagnostic tests means many people do not know for sure if their fever is the new strain of coronavirus, which has killed 26 people in China and affected more than 800.
Even reaching emergency wards is a struggle, following the shutdown of public transport in the city, which has been placed in complete lockdown. The roads are mostly deserted, and taxi drivers, fearing infection, are refusing to pick up patients from hospitals.
About 10 people got off a high-speed train that pulled into Wuhan on Friday afternoon but nobody got on before it resumed its journey. “ I need to be with my family, ” said one passenger, dragging two large cases out of the station.
Footage that appears to have been taken inside medical facilities, and shared on social media, shows staff unable to manage the huge influx of people. In one clip, a patient lies on the floor of a crowded room, apparently having fainted. In another, a woman wearing a face mask cries out for help, saying: “ I have a fever. ” It is not possible to verify the videos.
“ Patients are all anxious and worried, ” said Ms Zhang, a nurse in Wuhan, who is pregnant, and who is herself receiving treatment for a low fever.
Her elderly mother is believed by doctors to have the new coronavirus, but she has not been given a diagnostic test. Her mother was previously given injections at an outpatient department and sent home. Despite trying several hospitals, none were able to offer a bed.
Zhang fears her father could also become ill, as he has developed a fever after visiting the hospital with her mother.
On Thursday, she waited for hours to receive treatment herself, and was eventually given an anti-inflammatory injection but told supplies of cephalosporin had run out.
After speaking to the head of department for infected medical staff, she was able to get a bed. “ I am a nurse myself, it’ s difficult to get myself a bed, for normal people it would be much more difficult. The situation is the same in other hospitals in Wuhan, I heard from friends and relatives who are working in other hospitals here, ” she said.
On the outskirts of Wuhan, diggers and bulldozers have begun work to build a new 1,000-bed hospital, which is due to open within days. Built on the site of a holiday complex once intended for local workers, it is expected to be similar to those established in Beijing in 2003, when the city faced a Sars outbreak that killed almost 800 people and reached nearly 30 countries.
An article in the British Medical Journal on Friday warned that the quarantine measures introduced in Wuhan and other cities are likely to substantially raise community anxiety. This could lead to a surge in patients referred to as the “ worried well ”, as well as stigma for those inside the cordon, it said.
Mr Huang, an architect, said his sister-in-law in Wuhan, who has had symptoms, struggled to get a diagnostic test – but eventually had one this week and got the all-clear. “ Only when you are being isolated, and have severe symptoms, there will be a chance you can be tested, ” he said. “ There aren’ t enough beds in hospitals. ”
Another resident, who is British, told the Guardian he and his friends would be reluctant to go to hospital unless they were certain they had the disease. “ It’ s the number one place to catch it, ” he said.
Healthcare staff are working flat out to try to treat patients, said Zhang. All staff have cancelled their spring break, she said, and are taking extended shifts.
In one video shared widely online, the strain placed on medical staff is clear. A doctor wearing a mask and protective googles, believed to be from Wuhan, can be seen breaking down as he speaks on the phone.
“ Do you think I don’ t want to go home? Do you think I don’ t want to celebrate Chinese new year? … We are transferred to work in fever clinic, you think we don’ t care about our own safety? ” he says, as a colleague, also in protective equipment, tries to console him. | general |
Coronavirus death toll rises to 26 with more than 900 confirmed cases worldwide | The fatal flu-like coronavirus spreading quickly throughout Asia has now killed at least 26 people and sickened more than 900 worldwide, including new patients in the U.S. and Europe.
The majority of the reported cases are in mainland China, where local authorities have quarantined several major cities and canceled Lunar New Year's events in Beijing and elsewhere. Multiple cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and the United States. Taiwan has confirmed one case.
France on Friday afternoon announced two cases of the deadly virus, the first cases in Europe.
U.S. health officials diagnosed the nation's second patient with the virus after a Chicago woman returned from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday. There are 63 `` patients under investigation: in the U.S. that are currently being monitored, they said.
Travel bans were in effect Friday for at least 10 Chinese cities, including Wuhan, where the virus emerged Dec. 31. China said Thursday it was offering to refund domestic flights and train tickets nationwide.
Medical teams have been dispatched across China, and hospitals are asking for donations of essential items, including face masks, eye protectors, protective uniforms and sanitizer. China's Finance Ministry said it has allocated 1 billion yuan, or $ 145 million, to support the Hubei province in its fight to contain the outbreak.
In the U.S., the CDC escalated its travel warning for China on Thursday to a level 3, `` Avoid Nonessential Travel. '' U.S. health officials began screening passengers flying from China at major international airports last weekend. On Tuesday, they confirmed the country's first case, a man in Washington state. They are currently monitoring 63 potential cases in the U.S., the CDC said Friday.
ABC News reported Thursday that U.S. officials are investigating a suspected case of a Texas A & M student who recently traveled to Wuhan.
The World Health Organization declined for a second day Thursday to formally designate the new virus as a global health emergency, after postponing its decision the day before. Health officials are trying to contain the fast-spreading illness without unnecessarily spooking global trade. WHO physicians said they needed more data before declaring a global emergency, but the virus is now spreading through close human contact and in health-care settings, they said.
Total:909 confirmed cases ( according to CNBC's tally) 26 deathsNumber of confirmed cases: Mainland China: 891Hong Kong: 2Macau: 2Taiwan: 1Vietnam: 2Thailand: 3Japan: 2South Korea: 2Singapore: 3France: 2US: 2
— CNBC's Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. | business |
Dollar dips vs yen as investors reach for safe havens on virus scare | The U.S. dollar slipped against the safe-haven Japanese yen on Friday as investors fretted over concerns that a spreading virus from China would curb travel and hurt economic demand.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) on Friday confirmed a second U.S. case of the new coronavirus from China in a Chicago woman, and said as many as 63 potential cases were being investigated as the sometimes-deadly illness continues to spread around the globe.
The newly discovered virus has killed 26 people and infected more than 800. Most of the cases and all of the deaths so far have been in China, where officials have imposed severe restrictions on travel and public gatherings.
Against the yen, which tends to draw investors during times of geopolitical or financial stress given Japan's status as the world's largest creditor, the dollar was 0.22% lower at 109.24 yen.
`` The dollar and yen rallied modestly in New York trade on Friday, with safe-haven buying the main driver into the weekend, '' Ronald Simpson, managing director, global currency analysis at Action Economics, said in a note.
`` Nerves were ramped up some as the coronavirus outbreak appeared to have worsened, '' Simpson said.
The dollar's appeal as a safe haven helped boost it near an eight-week high against the euro on Friday. The move was aided by lukewarm European PMI data that added to the broader market conviction that European central bank policymakers will maintain a loose monetary policy for the near future.
Euro zone business activity remained lackluster with the IHS Markit's Euro Zone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers ' Index ( PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, holding at 50.9 in January but missing the median prediction in a Reuters poll for 51.2.
That followed an earlier PMI from Germany, Europe's largest economy, which showed the private sector gained momentum.
The euro was 0.23% lower against the greenback at $ 1.1027.
The survey data comes a day after the European Central Bank did not make any policy change, standing by its pledge to keep buying bonds and, if needed, cut interest rates until euro zone inflation headed back to its goal.
Sterling retreated on Friday, after initially strengthening, as some investors still expected an interest rate cut next week even though business surveys pointed to a post-election bounce in Britain's economy. The pound was 0.33% lower against the greenback.
The Canadian dollar fell about 0.13% against its U.S. counterpart as the coronavirus outbreak weighed on oil prices. | business |
5 things to know before the stock market opens January 24, 2020 | U.S. stock futures were pointing to higher Wall Street open Friday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell modestly, the S & P 500 rose slightly and the Nasdaq logged another record high closing. The Dow and S & P 500 were less than 1% from their all-time high closes. Dow stocks American Express and Intel were higher in Friday's premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue. Stocks on Thursday recovered from earlier losses after the World Health Organization said it's a `` bit too early '' to consider China's outbreak of coronavirus `` a public health emergency of international concern. ''
Chinese health officials said at least 26 people have died from the coronavirus, with confirmed cases there rising to over 900. China's travel ban extended to more than a dozen cities, covering some 35 million people. Shanghai Disney is closing until further notice to help stop the spread of the flu-like virus. The outbreak is hitting during China's Lunar New Year holiday, a time when Walt Disney's Shanghai Disney would normally be packed with tourists.
Democratic impeachment managers pushing the Senate to remove President Donald Trump from office finish their 24-hours of opening statements spread over three days on Friday. Trump's lawyers will then have the same amount of time to present the president's defense. Senators, who have been required to keep silent during the trial proceedings, will then have 16 cumulative hours to ask questions of the House managers and the defense team.
JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon got a 1.6% raise to $ 31.5 million for his work in 2019 after the bank posted record earnings and shares of the company surged. Dimon's compensation package breaks down to $ 1.5 million in salary and $ 30 million in performance-based incentives. Last year, JPMorgan produced $ 36.4 billion in profit last year, more than any bank in history, and shares climbed more than 40%, exceeding its rivals and the broader stock market in 2019.
The U.S. government has announced that former Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf has been banned from working at a bank again and will pay $ 17.5 million for scandals in which millions of fake accounts were set up to meet sales quotas. Regulators plans to target others, including former executives, for their roles in the schemes. Wells Fargo has remained muddled in restructuring and regulatory reforms since the fake accounts were brought to light in 2016.
— Reuters contributed to this report. | business |
Wuhan coronavirus case confirmed in Chicago, the second in the US |
A second case of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States has been identified in Chicago, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday in a press briefing.
The patient is a Chicago resident in her 60s. She is in isolation at a hospital in Chicago, and is in stable condition.
The patient flew from Wuhan to Chicago on January 13. She was not ill while traveling and health authorities do not think she spread the virus during that time. Health authorities say she has had limited close contacts since returning to Chicago; she has not used public transit, attended large gatherings or had extended close contact with anyone outside her home.
A man diagnosed with Wuhan coronavirus near Seattle is being treated largely by a robot
Read More
The first confirmed US case, announced Tuesday, is a man in his 30s in Washington state. The Snohomish County resident is hospitalized at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington, where he is in stable condition. He arrived at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, before any health screenings began at US airports.
Sixty-three people from 22 states are under investigation for the virus, health officials said. Eleven of the 63 tested negative for the virus and two, the Chicago patient and the Washington patient, tested positive. The CDC says there are likely to be many more under investigation in the coming days.
The immediate health risk from Wuhan coronavirus to the general American public is considered low at this time, according to the CDC.
`` We understand that some people are worried about this virus and how it may impact Americans. While this situation poses a very serious public health threat, CDC believes that the immediate risk to the US public is low at this time but the situation continues to evolve rapidly, '' said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
According to health authorities, patients infected with the Wuhan coronavirus may have common symptoms such as fever, cough, headache or muscle pain. A subset of patients may have more severe illness including trouble breathing and scans revealing signs of infection in both lungs.
The United States has launched health screenings at several airports. Similar measures are being adopted by airports across Asia, including temperature screening of incoming passengers.
On Thursday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raised its travel notice for Wuhan to its highest level, `` warning, '' recommending `` that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Wuhan, China. ''
Earlier in the week, the agency also activated its Emergency Operations Center -- as it has done with Ebola and vaping-related lung injuries -- to centralize the US response to the outbreak.
Get CNN Health's weekly newsletter
Sign up here to get
The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta
every Tuesday from the CNN Health team.
Officials in China have linked the initial infections to a Wuhan seafood and wildlife market, which has been closed since January 1 to prevent further spread of the illness.
Chinese officials are racing to contain the outbreak after it was confirmed the infection can be spread from person to person, raising the possibility of increased transmissions as China enters into the busy Lunar New Year travel period. Wuhan is the largest city in central China and a major transportation hub.
CNN's Michael Nedelman contributed to this report. | general |
A man diagnosed with Wuhan coronavirus near Seattle is being treated largely by a robot |
The
first person diagnosed
with the
Wuhan coronavirus
in the United States is being treated by a few medical workers and a robot.
The robot, equipped with a stethoscope, is helping doctors take the man's vitals and communicate with him through a large screen, said Dr. George Diaz, chief of the infectious disease division at the Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington.
The deadly new coronavirus has reached the US. Here's how to protect yourself
The man, who is in his 30s, was
diagnosed with the virus on Monday
. He initially went to an urgent care clinic on January 19 and told the staff that he was concerned about possibly having symptoms of the novel coronavirus because he recently traveled to Wuhan, China, Diaz said.
He arrived at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, before any health screenings began at US airports, the
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
has said.
The Snohomish County resident was in stable condition Thursday and remains in isolation, Diaz said.
Read More
Washington state health officials confirmed Thursday that they have reached out to 43 people considered `` close contacts '' of the 30-year-old man, who identified the people he had interacted with since returning from Wuhan, China. Those contacts will be called daily and actively monitored for signs of any illness.
He arrived at the hospital in a special isolated gurney called an ISOPOD and has been treated in a two-bed isolated area away from busy sections of the hospital, the doctor said.
The man was taken to the hospital in a special isolated gurney.
`` The nursing staff in the room move the robot around so we can see the patient in the screen, talk to him, '' Diaz said, adding the use of the robot minimizes exposure of medical staff to the infected man.
It's unclear when the patient will be released because the CDC, which is set to provide the discharge details, has recommended additional testing.
`` They're looking for ongoing presence of the virus, '' Diaz told CNN on Thursday. `` They're looking to see when the patient is no longer contagious. ''
Doctors are using a robot to communicate with the man from outside the isolation area.
About two weeks ago, the hospital tested its protocol for treating patients with highly contagious diseases such as MERS and Ebola. The hospital made changes after the Ebola outbreak.
`` That's why we set up protocols that will allow us to treat patients with infectious diseases in a way that we can isolate them without spreading the virus to anyone, '' Diaz told CNN en Español.
Washington state health officials confirmed Thursday they have been reaching out to 43 people considered to be `` close contacts '' of the patient.
The department defined `` close contacts '' as anyone who interacted with the patient and came within 3 to 6 feet of the infected person, for a prolonged period of time while infectious or had direct contact with his secretions.
The virus has killed at least 25 people in China, seven of whom did not have preexisting conditions before they contracted the illness, and sickened more than 800, as far afield as the US.
The true extent of the Wuhan coronavirus is unclear, however, and official figures may be an underestimation as mild symptoms and delayed onset mean cases are likely to have been undetected, a team of scientists have said.
The World Health Organization's ( WHO) emergency committee has said it's too early to declare the outbreak an international public health emergency.
CNN's Jen Christensen and Gina Yu contributed to this report. | general |
The next pandemic will come — here's how to prepare for it | NEW YORK – As a new coronavirus spreads within China and to other countries, I’ m reminded of my time in Hong Kong during the SARS outbreak of 2003.
Back then, I spent an otherwise beautiful spring wearing masks in public but mostly working from home, as I reported on the disease and the struggle to contain it.
Every day at the same time I checked an official Hong Kong website, which I trusted completely, to see that day’ s new cases. I remember my relief as the number finally trended down. When it was over, it felt as though SARS had been just a shot across the world’ s bow.
For one thing is certain: The next pandemic will come, and it may resemble the Spanish flu of 1918, which infected half a billion people. The questions are when, where and how, and whether we’ ll be ready collectively. I say “ collectively ” because a pandemic, like climate change, doesn’ t respect passports or borders. We don’ t quarantine, cure or save “ America First, ” or “ China First ” or anybody first; we either put humanity first or we all lose.
There are other links between climate change and pandemics ( and, to be clear, the current outbreak is still far from being one). The main connection is that global warming actually creates new disease vectors. As the permafrost thaws in places like Siberia, viruses that have been frozen for millenniums, and against which animals and humans no longer have any resistance, will resurface.
And as desertification and other side effects of warming move the boundaries between habitats, species will come into contact with creatures they’ ve never encountered before. That’ s how viruses start their journey.
What, then, are my lessons from the SARS outbreak? First, we must plan for human nature, both in its perfidy and its heroism. I observed SARS crash into various cultures in totally different ways.
China at first suppressed information about it, fearing economic loss or political turmoil. But that allowed the virus to spread farther and faster for longer than was necessary. And once China did open up on the subject, its people no longer trusted the government’ s information. Rumors circulated and often prevailed over facts, hampering the official response.
Singapore, by contrast, lived up to its reputation for iron discipline with immediate quarantines that I initially considered draconian and illiberal but came reluctantly to respect. Taiwan initially showed the darker side of individualism, as some hospital workers, to protect themselves and their families, shirked their duties. In Hong Kong ( and then Taiwan and other places, too) the opposite happened, as nurses and doctors cared for the victims and valiantly fought the virus.
Nobody who’ s read Albert Camus’ “ The Plague ” or Jose Saramago’ s “ Blindness ” should be surprised that human beings, individually and in crowds, will respond unpredictably to such crises. Some will hoard scarce medicine or food that’ s more urgently needed by others. Some will break quarantines to be with loved ones. Some will do their duty, others won’ t.
The biggest lesson, which China seems to have learned, is that the government must be ruthlessly honest and transparent. The more facts, the better. Hide nothing. It was my trust in that Hong Kong website that eventually made me believe SARS was waning. Once trust between the population and the state breaks down, controlling an outbreak becomes almost impossible.
Another lesson is, thankfully, one we’ ve already learned. Screening and surveillance, which should be used with caution in free societies, becomes necessary in an outbreak and is effective. Even now various airports around the world are digitally observing the body temperatures of passengers arriving from Wuhan, the center of the new outbreak.
Quarantine should be voluntary at first and actively encouraged by employers and government. Whoever can work from home, via Skype and such, should do so, without fearing recrimination. The more people can keep acting on their own volition, the more “ agency ” they believe they have, the calmer and more cooperative they will remain. Once an outbreak goes out of control, of course, quarantines must become mandatory.
But the most profound lesson is that we must cooperate as a species, with a geopolitical approach that seems to have gone out of fashion: multilateralism. We’ ve always been locked in an arms race between the evolution of viruses, bacteria and fungi and our medicines against them. When a new virus appears, it potentially threatens all of us and should be fought by all of us together.
That means a new bug’ s genome, wherever it’ s first collected, should be sequenced and immediately made available, like open-source computer code, to certified researchers everywhere. ( You still need the World Health Organization or some such body to accredit the scientists, lest the genome gets into the hands of terrorists). All labs and scientists should then share their insights with the entire profession.
The bad news is that we can not be sure that humans will rise to global threats such as climate change or pandemics, because we’ re so prone to put what we perceive to be our own interests, or our nations’, first, only to suffer the consequences later.
The good news — and this too is something I learned from SARS — is that every time we do join together to defeat a new threat, we’ re reminded how much we have in common, and fight better the next time. | tech |
Lunar New Year means everything in China. Canceling celebrations is a massive deal |
It's the most celebratory time of the year in China -- but in many cities, festivities have been
called off
.
Saturday marks the first day of the Lunar New Year, also known in China as Spring Festival. It's a time when families gather, often traveling
huge distances
to go home. Revelers gorge on banquets, give each other packets of money known as ``
hong bao
, '' wear the
lucky color red
, and set off firecrackers to scare off the legendary half-dragon, half-lion monster `` Nian '' who comes out of hiding during Lunar New Year.
But this year, the festive season has become a season of fear.
At a time when people would normally be enjoying
New Year festivities
, China is experiencing a coronavirus outbreak. In the six weeks since the outbreak began in the central city of
Wuhan
, 26 people have died and 830 people have fallen ill in mainland China from the virus, which is similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS).
Chinese passengers, almost all wearing protective masks, arrive to board trains before the annual Spring Festival at a Beijing railway station on January 23, 2020.
Wuhan -- and several surrounding cities -- are in partial lockdown. Authorities in Beijing have canceled all large-scale Lunar New Year celebrations, including traditional fairs and celebrations around temples.
Read More
And there's other things that threaten to put a dampener on the holiday period, which lasts for 15 days.
Shanghai Disneyland has temporarily
closed its doors
. Seven blockbuster movies that were set to hit theaters this weekend have been canceled or postponed -- a big deal given the holiday period is usually a huge draw for moviegoers.
Major New Year's celebrations have also been canceled in the special administrative regions of Macao and Hong Kong, which have each reported two coronavirus cases.
Chinese police officers wear protective masks as they patrol before the annual Spring Festival at a Beijing railway station on January 23, 2020.
It's hard to overstate the significance of this. Lunar New Year is to China what the Christmas-New Year holiday period is to the United States -- except China's 1.4 billion population is more than four times that of the US.
Earlier this month, China was bracing itself for
3 billion individual trips
over the Spring Festival period -- slightly up on last year's 2.99 billion trips.
Now, hundreds of thousands of people in China are facing disrupted travel plans. On Thursday morning, travelers queued up at Wuhan's high-speed railway station, trying to leave before trains stopped running.
A Chinese man wears a protective mask and goggles before boarding a train at a Beijing railway station on January 23, 2020.
China's largest online travel agency announced that it would waive Wuhan cancellation policies, and pay travelers back if a hotel refuses to refund the booking fee.
Eva Kwang, 35, was at Hong Kong's West Kowloon Station on Friday to cancel her family's train tickets to Guangzhou, in southern Guangdong province.
She said she was sad that she couldn't see her family, but was worried about her two kids. `` I think the safety for us is more important than my dinner with them, '' she told CNN. `` I think I can go back and visit them after maybe one month or two months. ''
On China's social media platforms, there has been mixed reaction to what promises to be a more sedate holiday season.
One user found a positive -- rather than going from house to house visiting different family members as is traditional during the Lunar New Year period, the poster could just call them on the phone.
But another -- who claimed to be in Wuhan -- seemed more upset. Although the person's parents were only on the other side of the river, they couldn't have dinner together, the poster claimed. `` Do you guys understand the pain of people in Wuhan? ''
CNN's Sherisse Pham and Alex Lin contributed reporting. | general |
Hospitals in China's virus epicenter launch public appeals for supplies | - Hospitals in the central Chinese city at the center of a coronavirus outbreak are calling on public support for protective supplies such as masks and suits, as supplies run low and the number of cases grows daily.
The death toll from the new flu-like virus has risen to 25 and more than 800 cases have been confirmed as of Thursday, according to China's National Health Commission.
Most of the cases were found in Wuhan city, where the virus is believed to have originated in a market which traded in illegal wildlife.
With the number of confirmed cases rising by the hundreds every day, medical supplies in the city are in short supply as people flood into hospitals waiting to be treated.
At least eight hospitals in Wuhan have issued public appeals for donations of goggles, masks, medical caps and protective suits for medical workers.
Alumni networks of universities in Wuhan have also posted notes on social media calling for public support.
Travel in and out of the city of 11 million people has been tightly controlled since Wednesday to keep the virus from spreading.
The closure of manufacturers, suppliers and distributors of medical gear over the week-long Lunar New Year holiday starting this week is exacerbating the shortages.
Chinese media report that some hospitals have supplies for only three to four days and are running low on testing kits.
Wuhan city has sought more financial support from the central government.
`` If we had any other option, we 'd just wait for government support ( rather than issue public appeals), '' said a doctor at a hospital in Wuhan, requesting anonymity.
Chinese e-commerce company JD.com said in a statement that it would donate one million masks and about 60,000 medical supplies to Wuhan. ( Reporting by Muyu Xu, Yawen Chen and Tony Munroe; Editing by Stephen Coates) | business |
Dior Air Jordan 1 High Photos + Release Info |
ADVERTISEMENT
With the Nike umbrella’ s All-Star Weekend preview having gone down earlier this week, many hopes were had to see Dior’ s continuously teased Jumpman collaboration, but with its release confirmed to take place later down the road in April, all we have are vicarious looks to help tide us over. Inspected to a degree closer than any of the official sets have afforded us, @ retroshopparis shows off the Air Jordan 1 High from its first debut back in Miami during Art Basel. Luxe metallic hang tabs, a modified Wings logo, and the high fashion house’ s signature all-over graphic all share the helm, mixing well both sportswear and luxury influence. Minimal, as is intended by Kim Jones, the pair prefers a toned down palette of white and grey — the latter a favorite of Dior’ s original couturier — only adding color by way of an icy blue tread. Encased within there lies bold, oversized cobranding, matching the energy of the monogram print that takes the shape of an accentuated swoosh. Grab a detailed look at the pair once again right here, and if you’ re currently saving up, you’ ll be able to break the bank come April of this year.
UPDATE ( 07/08/2020): Due to the increase in COVID-19 cases, the entire Air Dior collection will not be available at the luxury house’ s boutiques.
UPDATE 6/25/2020: The Jordan 1 Dior Raffle is currently live now. Find it at Capsule.Dior.com.
UPDATE 6/22/2020: More information has been revealed regarding the Air Dior collection. Expect the apparel to drop July 8th and the shoes to follow via an online release. | general |
Buy Royal Caribbean Even Though Coronavirus Fears Are Slamming the Stock, Scott Black Says | In this final segment of this year’ s Barron’ s Roundtable, our remaining five panelists share and defend 32 promising investments for 2020.
The investment pros spend more than half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead of the crowd or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. Our other five participants’ picks appeared last week.
Weighing in below is Scott Black of Delphi Management.
Scott Black: Science Applications International [ ticker: SAIC ]. It’ s based outside Washington. They provide technical engineering and enterprise information-technology to the U.S. government on large, complex projects. Overall, the mix of business is 54% Department of Defense, 16% to the intelligence area, 28% to federal civilian, and 2% all other. They compete against CACI International [ CACI ] and Booz Allen Hamilton [ BAH ]. Their long-term strategic plan is to grow revenue by the mid- to high-single digits, including bolt-on acquisitions. Their growth and earnings target over the next five years is 10% -plus, with a range of 10% to 15%. They want to increase operating margins, from 8.2% to 9%.
Black: They’ ve got about 1,500 contracts in place. I asked, “ Do you make bidding mistakes? ” [ They answered: ] “ Not often. ” The core skills that they require are software developing, network engineering, electrical engineering, and data analytics.
We do all our own models, and we talk to management. For the pro forma fiscal year ending in January 2021, we have the revenues growing 4.7% to 5.5%. They’ re going to improve profit margins, and they made an acquisition in 2018, Engility [ a systems engineering company that also provides other services ], and that deal closed in January 2019. The acquisition has slightly higher margins than the regular business. The midpoint of our earnings estimate is $ 6.25. So, the stock’ s a little more expensive than I normally like; 14.1 times earnings. We normally buy at 13 times or below. But this is a very fine company.
Black: I don’ t do price targets. I will tell you that Booz Allen is selling at 23 times forward earnings, and CACI at 20 times. There’ s plenty of room for expansion on this one. My next pick is Royal Caribbean Cruises [ RCL ]. If you watch sports, they have a lot of ads on NFL games. Sales for 2019 will be just under $ 11 billion. They’ re going to add some more capacity this year, about 8%. That takes you up to about $ 11.9 billion. The net income per share is $ 10.75 in 2020. It’ s an investment-grade credit, with a $ 3.12 dividend, 2.3% yield. It’ s selling at 12.2 times expected earnings. The return on equity for this year is 17.9%. We like to buy stocks with high ROEs.
Does the Wuhan coronavirus affect your thinking? [ Editors’ note: We asked about the virus after the Roundtable. ]
Black: No. This will pass, too.
They will have slightly negative free cash flow this year. Previously, they’ ve been free-cash- flow positive. But the reason is because they’ re spending $ 4.5 billion on ships. If you looked at the record over the past five years, they’ ve had straight-up earnings, no breaks in any quarter. They’ re going to have a slight break. It’ s temporary, has to do with a hurricane, and they’ re dry-docking a few ships. But there should be a normal resumption in growth.
Meryl Witmer: The aging population loves this stuff, right? And kids like cruises.
Black: I was going to point that out. They have four global brands. And the first is Royal Caribbean, which basically goes for adults and children and some singles. It’ s more moderate to upper. Then they have Celebrity Cruises, which has 13 ships. It’ s a little bit higher. And then they have Silversea Cruises; it’ s at the high end. The fourth brand is Azamara Club, a specialty line.
Black: The next one’ s sort of obscure. It’ s EnerSys [ ENS ]. It’ s an energy-storage company for industrial applications. The company basically has these different markets. Reserve power, motive power, and aerospace and defense. The biggest business now is forklifts because you can’ t use internal combustion engines. You’ d kill everybody at an Amazon. com [ AMZN ] distribution center with carbon-monoxide poisoning. That’ s 44% of sales. They want to bring it down. Uninterruptible power source is 29% of sales; that will go up. They benefit from things like 5G installation. As Mario knows, we have roughly 300,000 cell towers nationwide. But as you go to 5G, you’ re going to have smaller towers.
Gabelli: They don’ t own the towers. Right?
Black: The towers aren’ t theirs. I’ m talking about in total in the U.S. But with the installation of 5G, there will be five million mini-towers, and they’ re all going to have to have backup batteries. These people are the leader in that backup-battery business. They’ re also involved with broadband, like Comcast [ CMCSA ]. They’ re in the cloud. They sell to people like Amazon.com [ AMZN ] and Microsoft [ MSFT ]. And also sell to the electric-utility grid. So, it’ s the kind of business where, irrespective of whether we have a recession or not, earnings will grow at a double-digit rate.
Black: Yes. They have a new one—it’ s a thin-film lithium-type battery. They do make lithium ion. They make traditional lead batteries, as well. There are economies of scale, and that’ s why the profit margins will lift. The stock is $ 75.17, for a $ 3.2 billion market cap. It pays a 70-cent dividend, for a 0.9% yield. It can generate roughly $ 6.23 in earnings. It’ s a 12.1 P/E multiple.
Your’ e also a fan of a home builder, but one that not many have heard of.
Black: In the past, I’ ve recommended home builders like D.R. Horton [ DHI ]. But I’ ve got to be different this year, and this one’ s the cheapest of the really good ones. It’ s M/I Homes [ MHO ], based out of Columbus, Ohio. I’ ve known the management for a long time. It has two regions. They have the northern market: Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Detroit. And then the southern market, which is 61% of their homes sold: Charlotte [ N.C. ], Raleigh [ N.C. ], Tampa [ Fla. ], Orlando [ Fla. ], Sarasota [ Fla. ], Houston, San Antonio, Austin [ Texas ], and Dallas. U.S. housing starts are 1.37 million, up 14% year over year, and the S & P/Case-Shiller housing price index is up about only 2%. There’ s good demand for housing, albeit the mix is shifting toward slightly smaller homes, which are roughly 28% of their mix.
Gabelli: Their average home price has to be about $ 400,000.
Black: It was about $ 388,000 for the first nine months of 2019. M/I does a little over 6,000 homes a year. They’ ll come in this year at about $ 2.7 billion in sales, up 5.5%. They will do $ 5.28 in earnings, so at a stock price of $ 40.01, it’ s a 7.6 P/E multiple, which is much cheaper than Lennar ( LEN), which we happen to own, and Horton, which we also own.
Black: The last is one I used last year. But I think it’ s still good. You have a lot of readers looking for income. It’ s a well-run company. It’ s a business-development corporation, or BDC, based in Palo Alto. BDCs basically provide growth-stage venture capital. It’ s called Hercules Capital [ HTGC ]. The stock is $ 14. They’ ve got a $ 1.28 dividend, so you’ ve got a 9.1% yield.
Exclusive data, tables and charts from Barron's Market Lab.
Black: It doesn’ t hurt them because they’ re basically senior secured lenders. Their basic earnings run rate is about 35 to 36 cents a quarter. So, that’ s $ 1.40 to $ 1.44 a year. Now, net new commitments—because you have people paying off loans—are 11 cents a share. So, you have $ 1.51 to $ 1.55 in per-share earnings. The P/E ratio is 9.1 times. They have 95 portfolio companies they lend to. Their cost of debt is about 5.2%. And their effective interest rate is north of 12%. They’ ve been in business for over 15 years, and they don’ t have to borrow to cover the yield. The return on equity, which is really good for a BDC, will be 14.5% this year. | business |
'Grey's Anatomy ' Season 17 Date, News, Spoilers, and Cast | We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we love. Promise.
If it * is * the last, I’ m down to riot.
Imagining TV without new episodes of Grey’ s Anatomy on Thursdays is like imagining a hospital without doctors: It just doesn’ t exist. And fortunately, fans won’ t have to think about their Thursday nights without Grey’ s for a long time to come. Grey’ s Anatomy season 17 is a thing that’ s definitely happening, and even though it’ s still a few weeks away, what will go down—and which characters will be there for it all—isn’ t a total mystery.
Here’ s everything we know about season 17.
In May 2019, Grey’ s Anatomy was renewed for season 16 and season 17 all in one swoop. Season 16 just wrapped last spring, but season 17 is yet to come in 2020.
“ Obviously I never anticipated the show still being the number one show on the network, ” Ellen Pompeo told People when the show was renewed. “ How do you walk away from a hit? The fans will dictate when the show ends. As much as we think we’ re in control, we’ re not. It’ s the fans’ show at this point. They control how long the show goes. We’ ll see. I kind of just take it year by year and see. ”
Usually, new seasons of Grey's premiere in September, but because of coronavirus-related production delays, the cast and crew weren’ t able to film on the normal schedule. ABC announced last week that season 17 would officially start on November 12 with a two-hour season premiere.
It seems natural for a medical show to cover the current medical crisis facing America, and Grey’ s will do just that. Showrunner Krista Vernoff said, “ We’ re going to address this pandemic for sure, ” she said in an interview in July. “ There’ s no way to be a long-running medical show and not do the medical story of our lifetimes. `` ”
To make sure the show is telling these stories accurately, the writers have been talking to actual doctors who are currently on the front lines of the pandemic.
“ It has felt more like therapy, ” she said during that same interview. “ The doctors come in and we’ re the first people they’ re talking to about these types of experiences they’ re having. They are literally shaking and trying not to cry, they’ re pale, and they’ re talking about it as war—a war that they were not trained for.... I feel like our show has an opportunity and a responsibility to tell some of those stories. Our conversations have been constantly about how do we keep alive humor and romance while we tell these really painful stories. ”
Giacomo Gianniotti, who plays DeLuca, told Entertainment Tonight back in August that the show will start about a month into the COVID-19 pandemic. “ We’ re going to start the season about a month and a half [ into ] full COVID, so it’ s going to take place a little beyond where we left off in the last season, ” Gianniotti said. “ We might have some flashbacks. We might have some things where we’ re referencing last season, just to have context leading up. But we are going to have a little leap when we start this season in terms of time. We’ re not picking up right where we left off. ”
The bummer, though, is that Meredith won’ t have Alex in the hospital ( or possibly even Seattle) to support her. Justin Chambers announced he was leaving the show in January 2020, and while it’ s possible he’ ll still get some sort of send-off this season, if it doesn’ t include death, it leaves the door open for an appearance or two down the line ( fingers crossed).
So who will be returning besides Ellen? At this point, it’ s not too clear, but it seems like we can definitely count on Jesse Williams, who reassured fans in an interview with Entertainment Weekly that despite his role on Little Fires Everywhere, Jackson Avery will be sticking around, and he also signed a contract through 2021.
And yes, it seems like they’ re saying this every season, but this time around, it seems like it might actually be true. During an appearance on The Late Late Show With James Corden back in September, Ellen avoided questions about season 17 being the last, which isn’ t a great sign—and she admitted she has a few ideas for how the ending should go down.
“ The ending, the final episode, matters so much, ” she said. “ Are you kidding me? And the fans are never going to be happy no matter what. Sopranos, Game of Thrones, they’ re pissed no matter what you do. So, there’ s a lot of pressure on that final episode. ”
And she’ s right, because I will be pissed if Meredith Grey gets less than she deserves at the end of this series. Haven’ t we all been victimized by Shonda Rhimes enough?
The moral of the story: Watch every episode of Grey’ s like it’ s one of the last, and who knows? Maybe this time next year, we’ ll be looking forward to season 18. | general |
How Low Will The Coronavirus Send Oil Prices? | A number of developments this week, including Haftar & rsquo; s actions in Libya, would normally have moved oil markets significantly, but in today & rsquo; s market, it is only those that are to do with demand that seem to have any influence. - Travel restrictions and a dangerously spreading virus are dragging oil prices down. Goldman Sachs sees a potential drop in oil demand in China due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has now spread across the country, with 830 confirmed cases as of Thursday, and 26 confirmed & nbsp; deaths, along with one confirmed case in the United States and cases reported in Thailand, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Goldman predicts this outbreak could slash Chinese demand and shave $ 3 off a barrel of crude. The math here mirrors what happened in the 2003 SARS outbreak, which leads Goldman to believe that there is the potential for demand to lose 260,000 barrels per day and & ldquo; shock & rdquo; global oil demand. Goldman is adding 170,000 bpd loss of jet fuel demand in its calculations. The SARS virus caused a slowdown that was much smaller than what Goldman is projecting. The logic behind the fear that the slowdown could be much worse this time around is that Asian air travel has enjoyed rapid growth since the early 2000s, so the slowdown in air travel and the reduced use of jet fuel could be compounded. In other words, there & rsquo; s more to slow down this time. At the time of writing, Brent has & nbsp; fallen to $ 60.88 and WTI to around $ 55. - Hoping to counter this is a projection from Barclays, which expects crude oil demand China virus aside to rise by 1.4 million bpd, from 900,000 bpd in 2019. Previously, Barclays had forecast oil demand to be 500,000 bpd less than this. Barclays is banking on India to drive much of this new demand growth, but also believes that the US and China will see an uptick in demand following the Phase 1 trade deal. - Iraq & rsquo; s oil expansion plans just got hit with more bad news - beyond the fact that the country is a proxy battlefield between the United States and Iran. In Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, giant BP has pulled out, letting its $ 100-million exploration contract expire and putting any hope for the expansion of the Kirkuk oilfield on hold. We & rsquo; ve noted previously that one thing the US-Iran conflict will do for oil prices is at least keep Iraq - one of OPEC & rsquo; s biggest over-producers - from further expanding its production potential, even if current production isn & rsquo; t taking a hit. - Chevron has won another three-month stay of execution in Venezuela, courtesy of the U.S. Treasury Department. This is the third extension Chevron has received to continue operations in Venezuela, as the only remaining major U.S. oil company in the country. Chevron & rsquo; s ventures with Venezuela's state-run oil monopoly PDVSA produce about 200,000 barrels a day, which represents about 25% of Venezuela & rsquo; s total production. - Houston-based oilfield services giant Halliburton is taking a $ 1.1 billion loss for 2019 due to a shale slowdown that has hurt demand for fracking and other oilfield services. Revenue for 2019 was $ 22.4 billion, down 7% from $ 24 billion for 2018. HAL disclosed a $ 2.2-billion charge to earnings for asset impairments on fracking and other drilling equipment and workforce reductions. However, this was in part offset by higher drilling activity in international markets. Deals, M & amp; A, Offerings - Somalia has invited Turkey to explore for oil in its waters, and Erdogan is planning on taking Somalia up on its offer. Somalia & rsquo; s waters do have a significant potential for oil, according to seismic surveys, but Somalia is not yet an oil producer. Earlier this month, Somalia passed new petroleum laws to entice foreign oil companies to invest in its energy sector. The new law also defined revenue sharing between the central government and its states. - Uganda, too, is trying to get into the oil game, and has plans to spend $ 5 billion to develop the Kingfisher and Tilega oilfields. But controversy abounds, and the two fields are currently the subject of tax disputes between the government and Total, CNOOC, and Tullow, who jointly own the fields. Tullow, however, wishes to reduce its stake in the joint project. Uganda expects first oil from the two fields in 2022. The $ 5 billion is just part of Uganda & rsquo; s planned spend of $ 15 billion to $ 20 billion on its oil industry within the next three to five years. The money will be spent not only on drilling more than 500 wells, but also an oil refinery, an oil pipeline, two central processing facilities, and a water plant - without which the two fields can not go into production. Uganda is also looking to award five blocks by the end of 2020 to oil companies interested in exploring there. Uganda has some challenges here as the oil is heavy, and transporting the oil through the planned pipeline through Tanzania will require heaters to keep the oil flowing. - Egypt has signed deals with four companies - Apache, BP, Shell, and Petronas - to develop nine blocks for a collective investment of $ 452 million. The four will drill 38 wells. - BP signed an agreement with Angola's government aimed at acquiring further offshore exploration rights for two oil blocks. The company is already a partner in ongoing production in Block 18, called the Greater Plutonio development. Last week, BP, Eni, Total and Equinor won rights to develop several offshore Angola blocks. - Total and Japan-based Marubeni have plans to build an 800MW solar plant in gas-rich Qatar -- the first utility-scale solar project in the country. The cost for the project is the lowest ever for a solar PPA. The plant will be operational by the time Qatar hosts the 2022 World Cup, but the first 350MW will be operational next year. When complete, it will be one of the largest bifacial projects in the world. Legislation & amp; Regulations - Kazakhstan has suspended oil exports to China after a high volume of organic chloride was found in the oil. It is unknown just how much oil is affected. Shipments of oil will resume after the contamination issue has been resolved. The issue of contaminated oil is reminiscent of Russia & rsquo; s contamination problem from last April, when millions of tonnes of oil were contaminated. - Brazil is contemplating joining OPEC, at a time when OPEC members are cutting oil production in an effort to rebalance what it considers to be an oversupplied market. Brazil, which is expected to hold talks with OPEC in July, is not planning on joining OPEC this year, rather at a later date if at all. If Brazil - the world & rsquo; s second-largest non-OPEC oil producer - does in fact decide to join OPEC, it will restore in part some lost clout that OPEC once had. For Brazil, though, this may run counter to its plans, which include doubling its oil output. And that is not just pie in the sky - Brazil & rsquo; s production in 2019 was the highest annual output growth in years, and prospects for further increases look bright. Brazil is surely a headache for OPEC, which is countering increased production from non-OPEC producers like the United States and Brazil. If it did join, Brazil would be OPEC & rsquo; s third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. - The Trump administration has rubber-stamped a permit to build the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. The permit will allow the pipeline to be built on US land in Montana, allowing construction crews on federal lands. The approval is a big win for the troubled pipeline, which overall will span 1200 miles and carry 830,000 bpd of oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. While this approval means the pipeline has clearance to make it through the Montana portion of the line, it will be anything but smooth sailing, and will likely face continued opposition until it is complete. Politics, Geopolitics & amp; Conflict- Moqtada al-Sadr & rsquo; s calls for a & ldquo; million-man & rdquo; protest in Baghdad succeeded in bringing hundreds of thousands of demonstrators to the streets of the capital on Friday in a power play by the & ldquo; nationalist & rdquo; Shia cleric whose latest gimmick is Iraqi sovereignty from both Iran and the U.S.. Protesters are trying to increase the pressure on the Iraqi PM to ensure that U.S. forces are kicked out of the country. - Russia is attempting to re-establish Assad & rsquo; s control of northeastern Syria Syria & rsquo; s Kurdish region, but are being thwarted by the continued US military presence around the area & rsquo; s oil venues. Earlier this week, US troops blocked the passage of Russian forces. The Assad regime has regained control of most areas previously held by Syrian rebels but remains unable to fully retake Idlib where Syrian rebels are still holding strong or to control the northeast without coming into direct conflict with US troops, via Russian allies. - Cyprus accused Turkey of being a & ldquo; pirate state & rdquo; following the Turkish President & rsquo; s Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed vow to start drilling for natural gas off the coast of the disputed island. Cypriot leaders have also suggested that Turkey may have stolen technical data for Block 8 in Cyprus EEZ, which was recently licensed to Italian Eni and French Total SA. - Amid an ongoing dispute with Russia over crude oil supply and tariffs for transporting Russian gas through Belarus, Belarus & rsquo; BNK oil company has announced it will import crude from Norway & rsquo; s Johan Sverdrup field via a Lithiuanian port. This is not a long-term move and is a temporary resolution for the current month. On January 1st, Russia suspended oil supplies to refineries in Belarus and then returned partial supply three days later, though supply terms for the year have not been agreed upon yet. - The U.S. Treasury Department blacklisted four foreign companies for allegedly purchasing Iranian oil and petrochemical products in violation of U.S. sanctions. The Treasury alleged that the four companies, two based in Hong Kong, one company based in Shanghai and another company based in Dubai collectively ordered the transfer of the equivalent of hundreds of millions of dollars to the state-owned National Iranian Oil Co. as payment for Iranian exports. | business |
China says it is building hospital over weekend to treat coronavirus | The Chinese city of Wuhan is rapidly building a new 1,000-bed hospital to treat victims of a new coronavirus, mobilizing machinery to get it ready by early next week, state media said.
The virus has killed 25 people in China and infected more than 800, the government said on Friday, as the World Health Organisation declared it an emergency but stopped short of declaring the epidemic of international concern.
Most of the cases are in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated late last year.
The new hospital is being built around a holiday complex originally intended for local workers, set in gardens by a lake on the outskirts of the city, the official Changjiang Daily reported on Friday. Prefabricated buildings which will have 1,000 beds will be put up, it said.
Building machinery, including 35 diggers and 10 bulldozers, arrived at the site on Thursday night, with the aim to get the new facility ready by Monday, the paper added.
`` The construction of this project is to solve the shortage of existing medical resources '' the report said. `` Because it will be prefabricated buildings, it will not only be built fast but it also won't cost much. ''
The hospital aims to copy the experience of Beijing in 2003, when the city battled Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS).
As many as 774 people died in the SARS epidemic, which reached nearly 30 countries.
At the time, Beijing built the Xiaotangshan hospital in its northern suburbs in just a week. Within two months, it treated one-seventh of all the country's SARS patients, the Changjiang Daily said.
`` It created a miracle in the history of medical science, '' the paper added.
The Beijing hospital, built by 7,000 workers, was originally designed only to take people who were in recovery from SARS to relieve pressure on other hospitals.
In the end it treated nearly 700 SARS patients. | business |
Dow drops 170 points to end the week as coronavirus fears grow | Stocks fell on Friday after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus was confirmed, stoking concerns over the sickness ' impact on the global economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 170.36 points, or 0.6%, at 28,989.73 after jumping more than 100 points earlier in the day. Friday also marked the Dow's first close below 29,000 since Jan. 14.
The 30-stock average briefly fell more than 300 points before recovering some of those losses as Boeing shares turned around. The S & P 500 fell 0.9% to 3,295.47, for its worst loss of the young year. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day 0.9% lower at 9,314.91.
`` You could see going into the weekend the 10-year Treasury yield is down, gold is higher, the market is in a text book defensive state, '' said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. `` We had a market that was poised for a bout of profit-taking and this is it. ''
On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a Chicago resident who traveled to Wuhan — the Chinese city where the coronavirus originated — in December was diagnosed with the sickness.
U.S. Senator John Barrasso later said the CDC told lawmakers they are about to confirm a third case of the Wuhan virus in the U.S. `` It looks like have two documented cases in the US, it looks like third may be confirmed as well. ''
Shares of United Airlines and American both fell more than 5%. Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts also dropped more than 3% each.
Treasury yields fell, pushing bank shares lower. The benchmark 10-year yield dipped below 1.7%. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America all traded more than 1.5% lower.
`` The market is in nervous mode right now, '' said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. `` We're in one of those pockets of time with risk assets and rates saying central bank liquidity is abundant, but there are still risks out there we need to pay attention to. It's not clear how those risks are going to play out. ''
The Cboe Volatility Index ( VIX), considered to be the best fear gauge in the market, briefly broke above 15 for the first time since early January.
Fears over the possible economic impact of the coronavirus subdued stocks this week. The Dow, S & P 500 and Nasdaq all posted their first weekly loss of 2020. The Dow and S & P 500 both fell at least 1% week to date while the Nasdaq slid 0.8%.
Boeing shares rose 1.7% after the FAA said it was `` pleased '' with the progress being made on the 737 Max jet. A source also told CNBC the plane's grounding could be lifted before mid-year if no new issues are reported.
Stocks started Friday's session on a strong note after the release of better-than-expected earnings from American Express and Intel.
American Express reported a quarterly profit and revenue that beat analyst expectations. Those results were driven in part by strong card fee revenues. The stock gained more than 2% and hit a record high.
Intel, meanwhile, climbed more than 8% after its fourth-quarter numbers topped estimates. The company also gave an optimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2020.
Those results add to what has been a solid start to the earnings season. More than 16% of the S & P 500 has released quarterly results thus far. Of those companies, about 70% have reported better-than-expected earnings, FactSet data shows.
Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout, pointed out that S & P 500 earnings expectations are also improving, which is `` a reason why stocks continue to rise. The rise in price has been more than the underlying improvement in overall EPS expectations. This is what has made stock prices expensive in our opinion. ''
Stocks have been on a record-setting tear since last year, with the S & P 500 rising more than 28% in 2019 and gaining more than 2% to start off 2020.
`` This certainly falls out of the realm of what is considered a normal market structure, '' said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial. `` As we got closer to January, it felt like the FOMO scenario was kicking in, fear of missing out. You have market participants who needed to put money to work. ''
But `` until you see a marked shift in inflation, I just don't see why you are not going to see money keep flowing into the equity market. ''
U.S. equities followed their European counterparts higher earlier in the day after IHS Markit data showed business activity in the region showed signs of stabilizing after weakening throughout 2019.
The Stoxx 600 index, which tracks a broad swath of European shares, advanced 0.9%. Germany's Dax climbed 1.4% while the French CAC 40 gained 0.9%.
`` Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months, '' strategists at MRB Partners said in a note. `` Nevertheless, the macro backdrop is sufficiently positive, and likely to remain so, to suggest that no worse than a digestion phase or mild correction will be necessary to better align equity prices with the slow-moving uptrend in earnings. ''
—CNBC's Ryan Browne contributed to this report. | business |
Energy rout rolls on, but a trader says one stock could have bottomed out | Energy stocks are lagging the market again as the coronavirus outbreak spreads.
The XLE energy ETF tumbled more than 1% on Friday, racking up a more than 4% decline for the week.
Todd Gordon, managing director of Ascent Wealth Partners, warns to stay away from the group – he sees no end in sight to the sell-off.
`` Energy, in general, has been a no touch for us, '' Gordon said Thursday on CNBC's `` Trading Nation. '' `` I want to focus in here on energy exploration … the XOP ETF has been clearly in a downtrend. We're holding on for dear life below the $ 20 support, I think it gives way here. ''
INSERT CHART
The XOP oil & gas exploration ETF is down 14% this month and last traded at $ 20.30.
There is one energy stock that Gordon would consider as having upside potential, though.
`` One name that I do like in the energy space — it's not a member of the XOP, it's an infrastructure play — is Kinder Morgan, '' he said. `` Earnings were a little light, but [ investors ] liked what they said going forward in terms of investment — and the stock is responding well, they also boosted the dividend. We are trying to break up through the $ 20 region, we 've got good volume. ''
Gordon notes that he's looking for a move up to $ 25 for Kinder Morgan. That's a 16% rise from its current $ 21.56.
John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, takes the opposite side on the energy space – he said there could still be opportunity here after its severe downturn.
Energy is `` one sector that's just gotten beaten up over the past couple of years, so there's value to be had in a market where, I think, valuations are in general are stretched, '' Petrides said during the same segment.
The energy sector has one of the cheapest valuations in the S & P 500, trading at 16.9 times forward earnings. The S & P 500 trades with a 19 times forward multiple.
`` There's value to be had in the energy space, I think investors do need to be selective; focus on those with high-quality balance sheets generating a cash flow that can operate in a lower-for-longer oil environment and I think in the long run you're going to be rewarded, '' Petrides added.
However, Gordon notes that these stocks are cheap for a reason.
`` Looking at the XLE since Jan of 2018, it underperformed the S & P by 37%. If my portfolio manager missed out on two-year growth of 37% in my portfolio because I was holding a sector that had a compelling valuation and no technical support in sight, I would take a big step back, '' Gordon said in emailed notes.
Disclaimer | business |
CEE MARKETS-Currencies gain after euro zone PMIs, Czech bond rally pauses | - Central European currencies gained on Friday, as better than expected PMI data from the euro zone helped restore risk appetite that had taken a hit in recent days from the outbreak of coronavirus in China. IHS Markit flash PMI data for the European Union's economic powerhouse Germany showed its private sector gained momentum in January, while euro zone data showed increased optimism about the year ahead despite business activity remaining weak at the start of the year. `` I think the main reason that CEE currencies gained today in the morning are better-than-expected flash PMIs released in the morning... the risk appetite is back on the market, '' said Santander Bank Polska economist Marcin Sulewski. At 0926 GMT the Hungarian forint was 0.34% firmer against the euro at 335.70, while the Czech crown gained 0.19% against the common currency to be bid at 25.110 and the Polish zloty rose 0.10% to 4.2408. Czech bond yields were mixed after a two-day dive lower as expectations the country's weighting in a key JPMorgan emerging markets bond index will rise at the end of January. One fund manager said JPMorgan had sent a note on Tuesday saying the October 2033 bond would be put in on the last day of January, pushing the country's weighting up by 37 basis points. The 2033 bond yield has dropped around 30 basis points since Tuesday's close. The Czech Republic, whose credit rating is the best in central Europe, has a current weighting in JPMorgan's GBI-EM Global Diversified index for local currency government debt of 3.69%. Benchmark Polish 10-year yields climbed over 4 basis points to 2.30% as investor focus shifted from coronavirus to the flash PMI data. Stocks also got a boost from the risk-on mood, with Poland's WIG 20 index up 0.68% at 0941 GMT and Prague's PX index gaining 0.64% as it contimued to hover around multi-year highs.
CET CURRENC IES
s
change
s
00
in
Republic
Poland
FORWARD
interba nk
R= >
= >
= >
quotes
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
( Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague and Marc Jones in London; Editing by Alison Williams) | business |
Coronavirus death toll in China hits 41 as medical staff struggle to cope |
Fifteen more people have been confirmed dead in Hubei province from
a deadly new coronavirus
, according to the provincial health authority, raising the death toll to 41 in mainland China.
Authorities in China have imposed indefinite travel restrictions on tens of millions of people across 11 cities in an unprecedented effort to contain the spread, as hospitals at the epicenter of the outbreak struggle to handle a surge in new patients.
The virus, which was first discovered in the city of Wuhan in December, has spread to every province in China, except the remote autonomous regions of Qinghai and Tibet.
Another 180 cases of the virus were confirmed in Hubei, said the provincial health authority. This raises the total number of confirmed Wuhan coronavirus cases to more than 1,200 in mainland China.
The weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, which began Friday, has led to concerns that the outbreak could quickly accelerate, as hundreds of millions of people travel across the country to visit friends and relatives.
Read More
Wuhan, the largest and most populous city in central China, was placed under lockdown Thursday, while public transport has been suspended in 10 neighboring cities. Numerous other measures and restrictions on public gatherings have also been implemented in the region. More than 30 million people could be affected.
Posts on social media show an atmosphere of fear and anxiety among those inside Wuhan, amid rising uncertainty over the ability of authorities to handle the potential epidemic.
Wuhan is the latest crisis to face China's Xi, and it's exposing major flaws in his model of control
People spoke of sick family members turned away from hospitals due to a lack of beds, or wards packed with feverish patients and limited screening or quarantine.
Video from Chinese social media appears to show hospitals in the city totally overwhelmed. In one video, a hospital corridor appears to be flooded with patients waiting for test results. In another, medical workers tend patient wearing full protective suits. CNN has not been able to independently verify the videos.
The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission acknowledged in a statement that there were a shortage of beds and long outpatient queues in the city. In response, it said seven hospitals will now be used solely for fever patients and more than 3,000 beds will be made available for suspected and confirmed cases of the virus.
Speaking to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV, medical workers in Wuhan have described an incredibly intense environment, where they must balance dealing with the overload of patients and suspected patients while also keeping themselves safe.
Residents wear masks to buy vegetables in a market in Wuhan.
`` Today, I heard one of my colleagues say that she has got blisters on her face, '' Wang Jun, a nurse at Jinyintan Hospital, told the broadcaster. `` It happened because she had to keep the face mask on tight for a long time. ''
On Friday, Chinese authorities announced they would construct a 1,000-bed dedicated pneumonia hospital in the city within six days to help treat the hundreds of people affected by the virus. According to state-backed newspaper
Beijing News
, the hospital will be a prefabricated, box-type model that can be built in the short time frame.
A similar hospital was built during the SARS epidemic in 2003 in Beijing. According to the paper, the dedicated SARS hospital treated almost 700 patients, and had a mortality rate of 1.18%, far below the national average.
In the meantime, hospitals have asked for donations of medical supplies, including masks, medical gloves and protective suits.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization ( WHO) moved to declare the new coronavirus an emergency within China but has refrained from classifying the outbreak as an epidemic of international concern.
Mounting evidence suggests the virus is spreading outside mainland China, however, with various countries and territories reporting their first cases,
including the United States
and Europe.
Health officials in France confirmed two cases of coronavirus on Friday. French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn told reporters one patient is in Paris and another one in Bordeaux.
Cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and Vietnam.
Three people were tested for suspected coronavirus in Scotland, `` as a precautionary measure only '' after traveling from Wuhan, a government spokesperson said. Cases are also under investigation in Canada and Australia, health officials said.
Third generation spread
On Thursday, David Heymann, the chairman of a WHO committee gathering data on the outbreak, said the virus spreads more easily from person to person than previously thought. `` We are now seeing second and third generation spread, '' Heymann said.
Coronaviruses are transmitted by animals and people, and the Wuhan strain has been linked to a market in the city that was selling seafood and live animals, including wild species.
Third generation means that someone who became infected after handling animals at the market spreads the virus to someone else, who then spreads it to a third person. The announcement marks a development in the progress of the spread of the virus.
It initially appeared to spread only by very close contact that would typically occur within a family -- such as hugging, kissing, or sharing eating utensils -- but now evidence is accruing that shows more distant contact could spread the virus, such as if a sick person were to sneeze or cough near someone else's face.
Wuhan coronavirus: Is it safe to travel?
Heymann said there is no evidence at this point that the virus is airborne and could be spread across a room, as happens with the flu or measles.
On Friday, an 80-year-old man died of the Wuhan coronavirus in Hebei province, near Beijing -- the first death outside of the outbreak's epicenter, according to the provincial health authority.
The man had visited Wuhan and stayed with relatives for over two months, health authorities said.
In a press conference on Thursday, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that of those infected, a quarter of patients have experienced severe disease, Ghebreyesus added.
He acknowledged that there is `` still a lot we don't know '' about how -- and how quickly -- the virus spreads.
`` We don't know the source of this virus, we don't understand how easily it spreads and we don't fully understand its clinical features or severity. ''
As officials race to slow the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, containment efforts are being put in place.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) raised its travel notice to the highest level `` warning '' for Wuhan from level 2 to level 3, which recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to the city.
CDC advisors are concerned about the lack of data coming out of Wuhan and worry that Chinese health officials still have not released basic epidemiological data more than three weeks into the outbreak.
Lunar New Year celebrations canceled
Chinese passengers, most wearing masks, arrive to board trains before the annual Spring Festival at a Beijing railway station.
Saturday marks the first day of the Lunar New Year, as countries across Asia greet the Year of the Rat.
But celebrations will be considerably smaller in China than in previous years, as authorities move to cancel many large public gatherings in order to help contain the Wuhan coronavirus.
In Beijing, officials have canceled all large-scale New Year celebrations `` in order to control the epidemic, '' including the city's traditional temple fairs. In Shanghai, the popular Disneyland theme park announced it would close from Saturday until further notice.
Celebrations have also been canceled in Hong Kong, and many other cities have issued guidance to citizens to avoid large public gatherings.
On Friday, China's two most important cities launched a Level 1 emergency response -- the highest level for a public health emergency -- to combat the outbreak, according to state broadcaster CGTN.
A total of 29 cases of the virus were confirmed in Beijing, according to CGTN, with more than 20 cases confirmed in Shanghai.
Hubei, the province at the center of the virus outbreak, declared a Level 1 response earlier Friday.
CNN's Steven Jiang and Yong Xiong in Beijing, Yuli Yang, Chermaine Lee, Alexandra Lin, Isaac Yee, Angus Watson, and Sophie Jeong in Hong Kong, Yoonjung Seo in Seoul, Junko Ogura in Tokyo and Elizabeth Cohen in Atlanta contributed to reporting. | general |
Calls for global ban on wild animal markets amid coronavirus outbreak | Wild animal markets must be banned worldwide, say experts in and outside China, warning that the sale of sometimes endangered species for human consumption is the cause both of the new coronavirus outbreak and other past epidemics.
The Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, which has been closed down as the source of the infection, had a wild animal section, where live and slaughtered species were on sale. An inventory list at the Da Zhong domestic and wild animals shop inside the market includes live wolf pups, golden cicadas, scorpions, bamboo rats, squirrels, foxes, civets, hedgehogs ( probably porcupines), salamanders, turtles and crocodiles. In addition, it offered assorted parts of some animals, such as crocodile tail, belly, tongue and intestines.
After Sars – the severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2002-3 caused by a very similar coronavirus to the one currently in China – there was a temporary ban on the wild animal markets. Chinese scientists wrote papers on the risks of allowing people to trade and eat wild meat.
But the markets are operating again and are widespread across China, Vietnam and other parts of south-east Asia, said Prof Diana Bell from the University of East Anglia’ s School of Biological Sciences.
“ There has been a long discussion among many stakeholders highlighting this risk, ” she told the Guardian.
Ebola came from monkeys, infected by bats and eaten in the African bush by people in very poor villages. But in China, wild animal meat is not cheap. “ These have now become luxury items, ” said Bell. “ It’ s a perfect storm. There is a shift from subsistence hunting to feed your family – that might make your family sick but it doesn’ t go anywhere else. Now, these animals are being sold into a multibillion pound illegal trade, right up there with drugs. They cost more than livestock.
“ People who are interviewed say they prefer wild meat. Rich businessmen will take their colleagues to wildlife restaurants. ”
Although the coronaviruses behind both Sars and Mers ( Middle East respiratory syndrome) were traced eventually to bats, Bell says bats are not necessarily the source of the new virus. “ It’ s just that bats have been quite well studied, ” she said.
“ An obvious candidate is wild rodent [ such as bamboo rat ] in the market. Hygiene levels are poor. They are cutting the throats of animals in front of people, so there will be a lot of blood everywhere. Don’ t think these wild animals are being fed, but they might opportunistically be feeding on rodents in the market. ”
Man’ s destruction of the habitat of many wild species may be partly responsible, she added. Forests and other habitats are being cleared. Species that survive are moving and mixing with different animals and with humans.
In a paper published by the Royal Society in 2004, Bell wrote with colleagues: “ A major lesson from Sars is that the underlying roots of newly emergent zoonotic diseases may lie in the parallel bio-diversity crisis of massive species loss as a result of overexploitation of wild animal populations and the destruction of their natural habitats by increasing human populations. ”
It is time to end the wildlife markets, said Bell. “ The Chinese and surrounding countries need to make it a priority to reduce demand and reduce supply and close the wet markets down. How many warning shots do we need?
“ People need to stop eating wildlife. The younger generation is already on board and various high-profile Chinese people have been saying it. It is the older generation. These markets are all over China and in Vietnam. It is not just Wuhan. ”
Chinese scientists are also highlighting the problem. Zhang Jinshuo of the Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, was one of those who took part in the investigations into the source of Sars in 2003.
“ We later published many papers and popular science articles, urging everyone to stop eating wild animals and not to have too close contact with wild animals. Only the health of wild animals and the health of ecosystems can [ secure ] human health, ” he was reported as saying on the website of Pro-Med, the international society for infectious diseases.
The Wildlife Conservation Society is also calling for the closure of live animal markets that sell wildlife for human consumption. It called on governments to recognise them as a global public health threat and to strengthen enforcement against trafficking.
“ If these markets persist, and human consumption of illegal and unregulated wildlife persists, then the public will continue to face heightened risks from emerging new viruses, potentially more lethal, and the source of future pandemic spread, ” said Dr Christian Walzer, executive director of the WCS health programme.
“ Poorly regulated live animal markets, where wild animals, farmed wildlife, and domestic animals are transported from across the regions and housed together to sell for human consumption provide ideal conditions for the emergence of new viruses that threaten human health, economic stability, and ecosystem health. ” | general |
This scientist hopes to test coronavirus drugs on animals in locked-down Wuhan | Coronaviruses take their name from their crown-like halo.
Credit: EYE OF SCIENCE/SPL
Shanghai, China
As China battles to halt the spread of a new virus that has infected hundreds of people, one structural biologist is hoping to get to the epicentre of the outbreak, the locked-down city of Wuhan.
Rolf Hilgenfeld, who is based at the University of Lübeck in Germany, has been
trying to develop a cure for coronaviruses
since the 2002–03 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS). Hilgenfeld is hoping to get into Wuhan in central China, to work with researchers there to test two compounds in animals infected with the new, related coronavirus, which emerged in the city late last year. The early-stage drug candidates are not ready for use in people, but Hilgenfeld wants to start animal testing with the aim of developing treatments for future coronavirus outbreaks.
Structural biologist Rolf Hilgenfeld.
Credit: University of Lübeck
Hilgenfeld, who is currently in China, tells
Nature
about his quest — and the obstacles.
Why are you visiting China?
I planned to go to China anyway, but after this virus emerged I contacted some collaborators in Wuhan. I have two compounds, and I would like to test them against the new virus, so I am seeking collaborators who have samples of the virus.
Many people would like to get out of Wuhan, but you’ re trying to get in. Are you worried for your safety?
I had the same experience going to Beijing in 2003 for SARS. I was on a flight with eight people. I had to connect through Japan because there were no flights from Europe. In Wuhan, I will wear a face mask all the time.
At what stage of development are your compounds?
We have just been getting them ready to be tested in a mouse model of Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS) with a collaborator in Germany. Those tests should start in the next two weeks. In cell culture, we know they work against SARS and MERS [ which are both also caused by coronaviruses ]. The compounds have been tested in mice; we know they are safe. But these are not drugs. They are not very advanced. They’ ve never been tested in humans.
If all goes well, how fast could you finish the preclinical testing? Could the compounds help subdue the new virus?
The problem with these antiviral compounds is that when you have the compound ready there are no patients. The new coronavirus outbreak will probably be over in six months, like the SARS one was. After six months, we could have data that show one of our compounds works against the new virus, and would be able to collaborate on developing it as a drug. But if by then the outbreak is over, there will be no patients, so how can you do clinical trials?
And the total number of people infected, if you combine SARS, MERS and this new virus, is under 12,500 people. That’ s not a market. The number of cases is too small. Pharmaceutical companies are not interested.
How can you develop drugs that target coronaviruses, then?
We have actually developed compounds that are active against both the coronaviruses and a large family of enteroviruses, which include human rhinoviruses [ the main cause of common colds ] and hand, foot and mouth disease. Every year, half a million children get one called enterovirus-71, so we would aim to go into clinical trials for these diseases. We can get pharma involved. Then if we have something approved for those, we can use the drug quickly next time there is a coronavirus outbreak.
How do the drugs work?
They are directed at viral proteases, which have common features in both coronaviruses and enteroviruses. We are structural biologists. We look at the crystal structure and then design something that targets both. It’ s killing two birds with one stone, as you say in English, or killing two flies with one swatter, as we say in German.
Which compounds have you brought to China?
The ones I brought over are a second generation of compounds that we prepared for the mouse MERS experiments. There is a publication about them under review.
Does China already have an animal model you can use to test your compounds?
It’ s not so easy to make a mouse model. The mouse doesn’ t interact with the MERS or SARS viruses because of a difference in the ACE2 receptor [ which the virus uses to enter cells ]. You must first engineer a mouse that carries the human version of ACE2 and you must delete the mouse version.
What will you do if you can not get to Wuhan?
If Wuhan airport doesn’ t open by next week, I will send my compounds by courier.
Some people are under the impression that you’ re delivering a cure for the disease. Does this concern you?
What happened is that a radio station contacted me because I do work related to SARS. I told them I was going to China and they wrote a
story
with a question mark in the title asking whether I could save people from the Wuhan virus. That was picked up. The idea that I have a drug is premature. I am trying to correct that. | science |
How China’ s Economy Is Taking a Hit From Coronavirus | Workers from a cleaning and disinfection service spray disinfectant in a train in Seoul to prevent the spread of a new virus which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Photograph by Hong Yoon-Gi/AFP via Getty Images
China’ s
spreading new virus
has killed
41 people, with confirmed infections more than 1,300 infected worldwide
—a number health experts say is likely a fraction of the actual cases.
As the disease has spread to nearly 10 other countries, including the U.S., airports around the world are screening passengers from China. Airline and travel-related stocks
are taking a hit
. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
fell
Wednesday and early Thursday but has largely recovered since.
But what is happening on the ground in China’ s domestic economy, which is facing this outbreak amid its lowest growth rate in 30 years?
Authorities there have locked down ground zero of the viral outbreak—the enormous city of Wuhan, which is geographically 10 times the size of Dallas or San Diego, and contains 11 million residents. At least eight
other cities in the region
are under transport lockdown, meaning some 40 million people are restricted from traveling, according to Chinese state media reports.
Predicting how the outbreak and subsequent consumer panic and investor uncertainty will affect certain sectors is often easy, but less clear-cut for several areas.
Morningstar Investment Management Asia forecasts that Chinese airlines with Wuhan-connected routes will suffer in the short term, but “ barring a ‘ black swan’ event, we expect airline operations to normalize over time, ” Ivan Su, a Morningstar equity analyst, said in an emailed statement.
Also expected to take a hit are China’ s leading travel site
Trip.com
( ticker: TCOM) and the tourism and gambling sectors in Macau, which recently announced its first coronavirus case.
Macau’ s economy was hit hard in early 2003 by
the SARS epidemic
, though central government support helped it rebound soon after. As China is experiencing significant economic cooling, investors are waiting to see what, if any, stimulus measures are rolled out for various sectors once the disease is better understood and contained.
One hard-hit sector looks to be China’ s movie industry. The disease struck smack in the middle of the country’ s biggest annual holiday, Lunar New Year, which often rakes in a substantial portion of each year’ s box office receipts—close to $ 10 billion last year. An industry source told entertainment outlet
Deadline
that the disease’ s effects could cost the industry $ 1 billion globally this year.
The dour news spread quickly on Chinese social media, but one clever studio spun straw into gold. The makers of one film, the much-anticipated comedy “ Lost in Russia, ” decided to not only release the movie online, but to offer it for free. Within hours Friday, the announcement became the top-trending topic on China’ s
Twitter
-like Weibo, and Hong Kong-listed
Huanxi Media Group
’ s
( 1003: HK) share price had skyrocketed an eye-popping 43%.
Although many industries and stores close their doors during the holiday, one exception is large, higher-end restaurants, where families and big groups go to treat each other to lavish meals. There is scant data on how they are faring so far, but one Chinese woman who returned to her hometown for the holiday in Henan, a province not far from Wuhan that has reported its own viral cases, said she had urged her friends and family to skip the festive dinners and play it safe at home.
“ My brother and mother were on the fence about going to the big dinner, ” Lü Gaili, a 33-year-old illustrator, told
Barron’ s
. “ I couldn’ t seem to convince them, so I secretly used each of their phones to text the family saying ‘ I’ m not going tonight.’ This way everyone thought we had all decided against going. ”
Many Chinese haven’ t gone to this extreme to convince their loved ones to avoid crowded Lunar New Year events. Three other Chinese citizens told
Barron’ s
they and numerous friends had canceled big gatherings because of the perceived risk.
And these are only examples of voluntary avoidances of activities that would generate economic activity.
Beijing authorities
have outright banned events, including its major new year festival, and have shuttered several of its preeminent tourist attractions, including the Forbidden City, the National Museum, and parts of the Great Wall.
Shanghai has shut down several events as well, including some of its river cruises, but none have provoked the despondency that arose online Friday when Shanghai Disneyland
announced it was closing its doors
for an unspecified duration.
Hong Kong, Macau, and several other cities have taken similar precautions. Despite only moderate ups and downs for overseas stocks, mainland Chinese markets ended the week on a palpably sour note, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index having its worst Lunar New Year’ s eve in its 30-year history, falling nearly 3% Thursday before the start of the seven-day trading break.
Because of China’ s enormous population, the enervation of economic activity, even for as little as a week—and this epidemic could have longer staying power—is enough to significantly dent the country’ s overall economy, experts say.
If the virus continues to spread, “ the economic impact for China—and potentially elsewhere—will be significant, ” according to a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which said up to one percentage point could be shaved off the country’ s 2020 real GDP growth rate.
Other analysts were more pessimistic. “ The current outbreak’ s likely impact will range from a 0.8% cut to real GDP if the epidemic is controlled within three months, to a 1.9% cost to GDP if the epidemic lasts nine months, ” said Mo Ji, chief economist of Greater China for asset management firm AllianceBernstein.
“ Most likely, the duration of the outbreak will be something in between, ” he said. “ For at least another three to four months, China will have to fight not only the spread of the disease but also the damage it causes to economic growth. We currently anticipate a possible one percentage point cost to real GDP growth. ”
Tanner Brown is a contributor to Barron’ s and MarketWatch and producer of the Caixin-Sinica Business Brief podcast. | business |
Wuhan races to build 1,000-bed hospital in nine days to tackle coronavirus | An expert there is reported to have said the instant hospital is needed to ease rising tensions.Wuhan, capital of Hubei province, is the epicentre of the outbreak that was first detected on 31 December. It and nine other cities in China have been locked down in an effort to contain the novel form of pneumonia.By the start of today it had caused 26 deaths in China, with 830 confirmed cases in the country and a small number of cases confirmed in Thailand, the US, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and Singapore, BBC News reports. Remarkable aerial photographs published by state news bureau Xinhua show the construction site packed with machinery. Wuhan city government said last night that the design plan for the hospital would be complete today, and that it would copy the Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital, which authorities had built in seven days to treat victims of the Sars outbreak in 2003, reports China Daily. Xinhua reported that, like Xiaotangshan hospital, the one in Wuhan would consist of “ movable plank houses ” for speedy construction. 7,000 construction workers built the 25,000-sq-m Xiaotangshan hospital on the northern outskirts of Beijing. Of 680 Sars patients hospitalised there, only eight died, said China Daily.Wuhan’ s official newspaper, Changjiang Daily, quoted an anonymous expert as saying it was necessary to build the hospital “ to ease the tension between the increasing demand by patients infected by the virus and insufficient medical resources ”, China Daily relayed.Image ©GCR, illustration by Denis Carrier | tech |
CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus. Chicago resident diagnosed | U.S. health officials said Friday they diagnosed a second patient with the China coronavirus — a Chicago woman who returned from Wuhan with the infection, and they are monitoring dozens of other potential cases here.
There are 63 cases being monitored in the U.S. that stretch across 22 states, including the first patient in Washington state and the new case in Illinois, said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
Officials said the new patient, a woman in her 60s, is doing well and is in stable condition. She remains isolated in a hospital as a precaution, U.S. health officials said on a conference call with reporters. The Illinois patient traveled to China in late December and began experiencing symptoms when she returned to the U.S. last week, officials said. She did not have symptoms while flying, they said.
`` She was not symptomatic when flying. And based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms develop is low, so that is reassuring, '' Dr. Allison Arwady, Chicago's public health commissioner, said on the call.
Upon returning to the U.S., the patient had very limited movement from outside her home and did not use public transportation or attend any large gatherings, they said. The patient began to feel unwell a few days after completing her trip and alerted her doctor.
`` CDC believes the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time, but the situation continues to evolve rapidly, '' Messonnier said, adding that there is likely to be more cases in the coming days. `` We have our best people working on this problem. ''
The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec. 31, has killed at least 41 people in China and infected more than 1,000 worldwide.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the country's first case — a Washington state man who has been quarantined in a hospital outside of Seattle after flying back from Wuhan, where the outbreak was first reported. The CDC said the man reached out to local health authorities last week once he started experiencing pneumonia-like symptoms.
U.S. health officials warned on Friday that the flu or other respiratory illnesses could complicate identifying more cases. They recommend that people call a health-care provider before seeking treatment so the appropriate measures can be put in place. The CDC is trying to speed up testing and to get the tests in the hands of state health officials. It currently takes the CDC about four to six hours to make a diagnosis once a sample makes it to its lab.
`` We're really working to understand the full spectrum of the illness with this coronavirus, '' Messonnier said. `` The problem with this time of year is it's cold and flu season and there are lots of cold and respiratory infections circulating. ''
On Thursday, the World Health Organization declined to formally designate the new virus as a global health emergency, after postponing its decision the day before. Health officials are trying to contain the fast-spreading illness without unnecessarily spooking global trade. WHO physicians said they needed more data before declaring a global emergency, but the virus is now spreading through close human contact and in health-care settings, they said.
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that usually infect animals but can sometimes evolve and spread to humans. Symptoms in humans include fever, coughing, and shortness of breath, which can progress to pneumonia.
U.S. officials began screening passengers flying from China at major international airports over the weekend. Health officials said Friday that they have screened more than 2,000 people across 200 flights and have not found any cases.
In China, some 33 million people are now under travel restrictions. Shanghai Disney is closing until further notice at a time when theme park would normally be packed with tourists during Saturday's Lunar New Year holiday.
Physicians have compared the outbreak to the 2003 outbreak of SARS, which had a short incubation period of two to seven days. U.S. officials said Friday that symptoms from the new virus, temporarily named 2019-nCoV, may take up to 14 days to appear. Neither U.S. patient had symptoms while they were flying, U.S. health officials said.
Former FDA Commissioner told CNBC on Friday the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak is likely more contagious but less severe than the SARS epidemic, which rattled markets and slowed global economic growth.
`` We probably will have some isolated outbreaks [ of coronavirus in the U.S. ], but that doesn't mean it 'll translate to an epidemic, '' Gottlieb told `` Squawk Box. '' | business |
32 Timely Investment Ideas From Barron’ s 2020 Roundtable Panelists | Worried about volatility, geopolitics, high stock and bond valuations, or global warming? Those issues and many others figure in the reasoning of the five panelists who share and defend 32 promising investments for 2020 in this, our final segment of the annual
Barron’ s
Roundtable.
The investment pros spend more than half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead of the crowd or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. Our
other five participants’ picks
appeared last week.
Read More Roundtable
Read the picks—and pans—from these panelists
Abby Joseph Cohen: Buy L3Harris Stock Because Its Dividend Could Grow Double-Digits
Todd Ahlsten: Deere Is a Titan and Its Stock Is a Bargain
Mario Gabelli: Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. Here are Two.
Sonal Desai: Buy the Yen and Gold. Both Will Beat Oil
Scott Black: Buy Royal Caribbean Stock Even Though Coronavirus Fears Are Slamming It
Tesla and 25 Other Stock Picks & Pans from the Barron’ s Roundtable
Almost No Chance of a Recession
2019 Midyear Roundtable: Where to Find Value
As always, the prolific Mario Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Gamco Investors, obliged with several picks—nine in all this year—related to media, defense, and what he dubs his “ theme for the decade: saving planet Earth. ”
Abby Joseph Cohen, advisory director and senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, proposed an eclectic group of stocks, both global and domestic, including Procter & Gamble and Chevron.
Todd Ahlsten, chief investment officer of Parnassus Investments and lead portfolio manager of the Parnassus Core Equity fund, produced last year’ s strongest returns among the Roundtable panelists. This year, he provided compelling cases for five companies, including contrarian pick Deere.
Scott Black, founder and president of Delphi Management, offered a cluster of value names—including a relatively unknown home builder—buttressed by a mountain of metrics.
And newcomer Sonal Desai, portfolio manager and CIO at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, gave reasons to consider gold and the yen, and extolled the merits of a number of funds that she thinks will prosper as the U.S. presidential election, Brexit, trade conflicts, and geopolitics roil the markets.
Click on the article links above to read more.
Write to
Leslie P. Norton at
leslie.norton @ barrons.com | business |
MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics Response to the Coronavirus Crisis | At MIT CTL, we believe learning can be available to everyone, everywhere with minimum barriers to entry. To support this belief, we offer the MITx MicroMasters Credential in Supply Chain Management, an advanced, professional, graduate-level foundation in SCM. This credential opens doors professionally…
No one foresaw China’ s role as the epicenter of a coronavirus outbreak that could have a crippling effect on the global economy.
The crisis could also have far-reaching consequences for China and its role in the world.
An online survey carried out by the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics on January 28 and 29, with hundreds of respondents, shows that while some firms are largely in wait-and-see mode at this early stage of the outbreak, many are starting to map out a strategy to deal with the crisis and have initiated countermeasures.
A total of 379 companies replied to the survey. Enterprises in the $ 1 billion to $ 100 billion size range represent the largest size category ( 39%).
16% and 14% of the companies are in the $ 100 million to $ 1 billion and $ 10 million to $ 100 million categories respectively.
In terms of their primary business, most companies are in manufacturing followed by distribution and retail ( see Figures 1 and 2).
Firms were asked how they are reacting to the outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China. Sixty-one percent of respondents in the distribution and retail businesses said they are watching the news and planning a strategy.
Fewer manufacturers, Forty-one percent, are reacting in this way. However, that doesn’ t mean they are doing nothing.
Forty-two percent of manufacturers are restricting travel to China, compared to 19% and 30% of distributors and retailers respectively.
There is less emphasis on consulting with local constituents and planning specific actions, with twenty percent and eighteen percent of distributors and manufacturers taking this course action.
Only nine percent of retailers report that they are pursuing such consultations.
Most of these results are depicted in Figures three and four.
There is a broad consensus that the effect on channels to market, internal production/distribution, tier-one suppliers, tier-two and lower-tier suppliers, and current contracts and contingencies, will be zero, minor, or moderate.
A possible exception is people-related outcomes. Nineteen percent of respondents report that the outbreak will have a major effect on people.
Many airlines have curtailed their flight schedules to China. United, American, and Delta have about halved the number of flights to China while British Airways canceled all China flights. Those airlines were flying widebody aircraft with only a few dozen people aboard, making such flights uneconomic.
In the US, a serious supply chain-related concern is that the country will run out of certain crucial products. For example, while many life-saving products are assembled and finished in the US or Europe, China is the world’ s largest producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
Some of Apple’ s Chinese suppliers are expected to extend closures beyond the Chinese New Year; Starbucks closed half of its Chinese outlets; McDonald’ s and KFC announced closings; Google closed its China offices; and in a sign of light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel attitude, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross observed that the Chinese outbreak may help bring more jobs to the US.
It’ s too early to draw definitive conclusions about how the coronavirus outbreak will impact global supply chains. However, the survey indicates that companies are watchful and concerned — as they should be.
At the time of writing, almost 10,000 people have been infected by the virus and it has killed more than 213 individuals while only 187 have recovered from the infection.
The World Health Organization has designated the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. For an up-to-date dashboard of cases check here. Worryingly, the virus is spreading rapidly and there is no vaccine to combat it. Moreover, it has a two-week incubation period but there is uncertainty over how contagious people are during this time.
While the situation is very serious, companies can take sensible precautions. Here are some suggestions.
Let’ s hope that the crisis will turn out to be less serious than anticipated, as was the case with the SARS outbreak. But at this point, no one can afford to be complacent.
The year 2020 was less than a month old when the coronavirus outbreak erupted in China. The crisis provides a stark reminder of the uncertainties that supply chains face today – and throughout the new decade. Crossroads 2020 one-day conference will explore these uncertainties, as well as measures that companies can take to prepare for them.
Supply Chain Lessons Learned from The Coronavirus and SARS Outbreaks This white paper contains insights from recent interviews with leading organizations on how they are responding to the new coronavirus crisis. Download Now!
Supply Chain 24/7 Education Resource Center Find the latest educational resources, degrees, and programs. Visit: Supply Chain 24/7 Education Resource Center | general |
Charting a bullish holding pattern, S & P 500 nails gap support | U.S. stocks are lower early Friday, pressured as a strong batch of influential earnings reports vies with the coronavirus overhang to set the market tone.
Against this backdrop, the S & P 500 has asserted a week-to-date holding pattern — constructive price action — punctuated by a successful test of gap support ( 3,302).
Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S & P 500’ s
US: SPX
hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.
As illustrated, the S & P has maintained next support, and rallied toward the range top.
Recall that gap support spans from about 3,298 to 3,302,
detailed previously.
Thursday’ s session low ( 3,301.9) matched gap support, punctuating a successful retest.
Meanwhile, the Dow industrials
US: DJIA
have pulled in slightly more aggressively, pressured partly amid
the headwind of Boeing’ s early-week downdraft.
Still, the blue-chip benchmark has maintained the 29,000 mark, rising to
close
Thursday comfortably atop the inflection point.
Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite
US: COMP
has registered the strongest week-to-date price action.
The index has asserted an orderly four-session range, effectively underpinned by first support ( 9,357).
Also consider that Thursday’ s close ( 9,402) marked a stealth record close, outpacing the other benchmarks.
Widening the view to six months adds perspective.
On this wider view, the Nasdaq has asserted a powerful nearly four-month uptrend.
The index has rallied as much as 1,751 points, or 22.7%, from the October low ( 7,700.00), a level then closely matching the 200-day moving average.
Though still near-term extended, the decisive break to record highs is longer-term bullish. To reiterate, near-term inflection points are detailed on the hourly chart, areas followed by the breakout point ( 9,093) and the 2019 peak ( 9,052).
Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is digesting a bullish two standard deviation mid-January breakout,
detailed previously.
Against this backdrop, an inflection point matches the 29,000 mark, and is followed by the deeper breakout point ( 28,872). The 20-day moving average, currently 28,890, is rising toward the former.
Meanwhile, the S & P 500 has sustained a two standard deviation break atop the 3,300 mark.
Recall that the week-to-date low ( 3,301.9) has closely matched gap support ( 3,302). The bullish reversal from support is constructive.
The bigger picture
Collectively, the major U.S. benchmarks have registered mixed week-to-date price action. Through Thursday’ s close:
The Dow industrials have dropped 188 points week-to-date.
The Nasdaq Composite has added 13.5 points week-to-date.
The S & P 500 has slipped 4.1 points.
Still, the flattish price action is constructive considering each benchmark’ s extended posture amid the exogenous coronavirus-fueled headwind.
Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF
US: IWM
has staged an orderly pullback from 15-month highs.
Against this backdrop, the IWM has thus far maintained its breakout point ( 167.12), on a closing basis, a level that has been tested each session this week.
Meanwhile, the SPDR S & P MidCap 400 ETF
US: MDY
has staged an orderly pullback from all-time highs.
Here again, the MDY has maintained its breakout point ( 377.60) on a closing basis.
More broadly, recall that the small- and mid-cap benchmarks are digesting unusually strong breakouts, encompassing at least three straight closes atop the 20-day volatility bands. ( Four straight closes atop the bands for the MDY.)
Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S & P 500
US: SPY
is holding relatively tightly to record highs.
As
detailed previously,
near-term inflection points match the mid-month gap, around 329.00 and 329.45.
The week-to-date low ( 329.41) has matched support.
Delving deeper, the 20-day moving average, currently 326.60, is followed by the firmer breakout point — the 324.90-to-325.20 area.
Placing a finer point on the S & P 500, its January price action remains bullish, and relatively technical.
Here again, the S & P’ s week-to-date low ( 3,301.9) has matched gap support ( 3,302),
detailed previously.
Separately, consider that the S & P and Nasdaq have briefly violated the 20-hour moving average, perhaps raising the flag to a consolidation phase. ( As always, consolidation can be a function of
price
, a deeper pullback, or
time
, an extended flatlining phase.)
Delving deeper, firmer support at 3,215 matches the December gap ( 3,216), the January low ( 3,214.6) and the S & P’ s former projected target ( 3,215).
The 50-day moving average, currently 3,196, will likely match support next week.
Broadly speaking, the S & P 500’ s intermediate-term bias remains bullish barring a violation of the 3,215 area.
Friday’ s Watch List
The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names — sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see
The Technical Indicator Library.
Drilling down further, the iShares Transportation Average ETF
US: IYT
has nailed major support.
Consider that the trendline continues to track the 50-day moving average, and matches the former range top, circa 195, detailed repeatedly. ( See the
Jan. 16 review.
)
Thursday’ s session low ( 195.01) matched support, and the group subsequently registered a 2.2%
intraday
reversal to close ( 199.35) near session highs. Bullish price action.
The bullish reversal has surfaced amid fundamental cross currents, as the group contends with a coronavirus-fueled headwind and the tailwind of lower energy prices. ( The intraday rally also contributed to Thursday’ s broad-market bullish reversal.)
Initially profiled Sept. 18, Dow 30 component Intel Corp.
US: INTC
has returned 21.9% and remains well positioned. ( Yield = 2.0%.)
The shares have truly taken flight early Friday, rising another 8.0% intraday after the company’ s strong fourth-quarter results.
The prevailing upturn places the shares at 19-year highs — the best level since September 2000 — opening the path to potentially material incremental follow-through.
Though near-term extended, Intel’ s strong-volume breakout is longer-term bullish. Tactically, gap support ( 63.70) is followed by the breakout point ( 60.80). Trendline support closely tracks the 50-day moving average, and is rising toward the breakout point.
More broadly, Intel is also well positioned on the
four-year chart
— rising from a massive double bottom — and the
35-year chart.
Akamai Technologies, Inc.
US: AKAM
is a well positioned large-cap cloud services provider.
Earlier this month, the shares staged a trendline breakout, knifing to 19-year highs.
The subsequent flag pattern signals still muted selling pressure, positioning the shares to build on the January spike. Tactically, the post-breakout low ( 93.25) closely matches the breakout point ( 93.10) and a sustained posture higher supports a bullish bias.
Initially profiled Jan. 7, Twilio, Inc.
US: TWLO
has returned 11.2% and remains well positioned.
Technically, the shares have asserted a bull flag — pinned to the early-January spike — and capped by the 200-day moving average, currently 120.94.
Conversely, the prevailing range bottom ( 117.25) closely matches gap support. A breakout attempt is in play barring a violation. ( Twilio has ventured atop the 200-day early Friday, though as always, it’ s the session close that matters.)
Finally, StoneCo Ltd.
US: STNE
— public since Oct. 2018 — is a large-cap Brazil-based developer of financial technology solutions.
As illustrated, the shares have staged a bull-flag breakout, reaching nine-month highs amid a volume spike.
Underlying the upturn, its relative strength index ( not illustrated) has registered its best level since July, improving the chances of longer-term follow-through. Tactically, the breakout point ( 42.80) is followed by the early-year gap ( 40.60). Trendline support is rising toward the latter.
More broadly, the shares are also well positioned on the
weekly chart,
rising to challenge record highs from a massive ascending triangle.
Still well positioned
The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see
The Technical Indicator Library.
Company
Symbol
Date Profiled
Spirit Airlines, Inc.
SAVE
Jan. 23
Himax Technologies, Inc.
HIMX
Jan. 23
International Business Machines
IBM
Jan. 22
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
DAL
Jan. 22
Yeti Holdings, Inc.
YETI
Jan. 22
Home Depot, Inc.
HD
Jan. 21
Marvell Technology Group, Inc.
MRVL
Jan. 21
IntercontinentalExchange, Inc.
ICE
Jan. 16
PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM
Jan. 16
Square, Inc.
SQ
Jan. 16
Lattice Semiconductor Corp.
LSCC
Jan. 15
SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc.
SAIL
Jan. 15
Dunkin Brands Group, Inc.
DNKN
Jan. 15
SPDR S & P Homebuilders ETF
XHB
Jan. 14
Netflix, Inc.
NFLX
Jan. 14
Pfizer, Inc.
PFE
Jan. 14
Southern Copper Corp.
SCCO
Jan. 13
Newmont Corp.
NEM
Jan. 13
SBA Communications Corp.
SBAC
Jan. 13
Guess, Inc.
GES
Jan. 13
CME Group, Inc.
CME
Jan. 10
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
MSI
Jan. 10
Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc.
GBT
Jan. 10
McDonald’ s Corp.
MCD
Jan. 9
TE Connectivity Ltd.
TEL
Jan. 9
Big Lots, Inc.
BIG
Jan. 9
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU
Jan. 8
Take-Two Interactive Software
TTWO
Jan. 8
Zendesk, Inc.
ZEN
Jan. 8
Fortinet, Inc.
FTNT
Jan. 7
Atlassian Corp.
TEAM
Jan. 7
Twilio, Inc.
TWLO
Jan. 7
Coupa Software, Inc.
COUP
Jan. 6
Progressive Corp.
PGR
Jan. 6
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
EWZ
Jan. 3
EOG Resources, Inc.
EOG
Jan. 3
Blackberry Limited
BB
Jan. 3
SPDR Gold Shares ETF
GLD
Jan. 2
Amazon.com, Inc.
AMZN
Jan. 2
iShares Transportation Average ETF
IYT
Dec. 23
Union Pacific Corp.
UNP
Dec. 23
3M Co.
MMM
Dec. 20
Activision Blizzard, Inc.
ATVI
Dec. 20
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.
SEDG
Dec. 20
Photronics, Inc.
PLAB
Dec. 19
Cree, Inc.
CREE
Dec. 19
Ciena Corp.
CIEN
Dec. 18
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
APD
Dec. 18
PTC Therapeutics, Inc.
PTCT
Dec. 18
iShares Europe ETF
IEV
Dec. 17
Autodesk, Inc.
ADSK
Dec. 17
iRobot Corp.
IRBT
Dec. 17
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF
IBB
Dec. 16
American Express Co.
AXP
Dec. 16
Paycom Software, Inc.
PAYC
Dec. 16
FormFactor, Inc.
FORM
Dec. 16
Xilinx, Inc.
XLNX
Dec. 13
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI
Dec. 11
Starbucks Corp.
SBUX
Dec. 10
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY
Dec. 10
Nordstrom, Inc.
JWN
Dec. 10
On Semiconductor Corp.
ON
Dec. 10
Splunk, Inc.
SPLK
Dec. 9
Macom Technology Solutions Holding, Inc.
MTSI
Dec. 6
Best Buy Co., Inc.
BBY
Dec. 6
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK
Dec. 5
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
EEM
Dec. 5
Yamana Gold. Inc.
AUY
Dec. 5
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF
GDX
Dec. 3
Pan American Silver Corp.
PAAS
Dec. 3
Nuance Communications, Inc.
NUAN
Dec. 3
Scientific Games Corp.
SGMS
Dec. 2
Shopify, Inc.
SHOP
Nov. 27
Microchip Technology, Inc.
MCHP
Nov. 27
Lowe’ s Companies, Inc.
LOW
Nov. 27
MKS Instruments, Inc.
MKSI
Nov. 26
UnitedHealth Group, Inc.
UNH
Nov. 25
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
SWK
Nov. 25
Baidu, Inc.
BIDU
Nov. 22
Bank of America Corp.
BAC
Nov. 21
Medtronic plc
MDT
Nov. 21
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.
WPM
Nov. 20
Nevro Corp.
NVRO
Nov. 19
Kroger Co.
KR
Nov. 19
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
AGIO
Nov. 18
Materials Select Sector SPDR
XLB
Nov. 14
Allstate Corp.
ALL
Nov. 14
Adobe, Inc.
ADBE
Nov. 14
Walt Disney Co.
DIS
Nov. 13
Zebra Technologies Corp.
ZBRA
Nov. 13
AstraZenaca, plc
AZN
Nov. 12
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
XLV
Nov. 11
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD
Nov. 7
AudioCodes, Ltd.
AUDC
Nov. 7
SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF
KRE
Nov. 5
Alibaba Holdings Group, Ltd.
BABA
Nov. 5
Alphabet, Inc.
GOOGL
Nov. 4
Teledoc Health, Inc.
TDOC
Nov. 1
Salesforce.com, Inc.
CRM
Oct. 31
Qualcomm, Inc.
QCOM
Oct. 31
Citrix Systems, Inc.
CTXS
Oct. 31
Industrial Select Sector SPDR
XLI
Oct. 31
Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ
Oct. 30
Centene Corp.
CNC
Oct. 30
Financial Select Sector SPDR
XLF
Oct. 29
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT
Oct. 29
Citigroup, Inc.
C
Oct. 28
Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
HLT
Oct. 28
SPDR S & P Retail ETF
XRT
Oct. 28
Generac Holdings, Inc.
GNRC
Oct. 25
RingCentral, Inc.
RNG
Oct. 24
United Technologies Corp.
UTX
Oct. 23
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA
Oct. 22
Tower Semiconductor Ltd.
TSEM
Oct. 21
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA
Oct. 21
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF
EWU
Oct. 18
Garmin, Ltd.
GRMN
Oct. 18
Fastenal Co.
FAST
Oct. 17
Facebook, Inc.
FB
Oct. 16
Qorvo, Inc.
QRVO
Oct. 16
Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
SWKS
Oct. 15
Jabil Inc.
JBL
Oct. 15
TJX Companies, Inc.
TJX
Oct. 8
Comtech Telecommunications Corp.
CMTL
Oct. 4
Emerson Electric Co.
EMR
Sept. 30
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
TSM
Sept. 27
RH
RH
Sept. 27
Sony Corp.
SNE
Sept. 26
Nike, Inc.
NKE
Sept. 26
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL
Sept.25
Synaptics, Inc.
SYNA
Sept.25
Intel Corp.
INTC
Sept. 18
Keysight Technologies, Inc.
KEYS
Sept. 18
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM
Sept. 16
iShares Japan ETF
EWJ
Sept. 13
VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF
SMH
Sept. 11
Kansas City Southern
KSU
Sept. 10
CVS Corp.
CVS
Sept. 5
Lam Research Corp.
LRCX
Sept. 3
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF
ITB
Aug. 27
Apple, Inc.
AAPL
Aug. 21
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.
RS
Aug. 21
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO
Aug. 20
Itron, Inc.
ITRI
Aug. 19
Cirrus Logic
CRUS
Aug. 16
Builders FirstSource, Inc.
BLDR
Aug. 16
D.R. Horton, Inc.
DHI
July 31
Teradyne, Inc.
TER
July 30
Franco-Nevada Corp.
FNV
July 18
Inphi Corp.
IPHI
July 8
Lululemon Athletica, Inc.
LULU
June 19
Ross Stores, Inc.
ROST
June 14
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
XLP
Mar. 28
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF
IYR
Mar. 13
Costco Wholesale Corp.
COST
Mar. 6
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT
Feb. 22
Procter & Gamble Co.
PG
Feb. 8
Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT
Jan. 25
Utilities Select Sector SPDR
XLU
Oct. 25 | business |
Coronavirus fear hits oil, prices drop most since May | Oil posted its worst week since July as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure prices.
A slowdown in China's economy would impact demand because China is the world's largest crude oil importer, after importing a record 10.12 million barrels per day in 2019, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China is also the second-largest oil consumer, behind the United States.
On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.5%, or $ 1.40, to settle at $ 54.19. At the session low WTI hit $ 53.85, its lowest level since Oct. 31. This was the fourth straight day of losses, and the contract declined 7.4% for a third straight week of declines.
International benchmark Brent crude dropped 2.2% to settle at $ 60.69, bringing its weekly loss to roughly 6.4%, which was also the third straight week of declines.
The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec. 31 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has already killed at least 26 people and infected more than 900 worldwide. The virus has spread to South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States, among other places. On Friday, the CDC confirmed the second case in the U.S.
More than 33 million people are now under travel restrictions in China, which could impact jet fuel demand. The timing is especially important because Chinese New Year, which starts tomorrow, is the world's largest annual human migration.
`` When cities are placed under quarantine, and public transit is shut down, by definition that reduces economic activity and has a negative impact on energy demand, oil included, '' Raymond James analyst John Freeman said in a note to clients Friday. `` Once there is evidence that the outbreak is contained and thus economic disruption subsiding, sentiment on oil should improve, bringing prices back up. ''
Several typically bullish events in the oil market occurred this week, but they weren't enough to prop up prices.
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that inventory fell by 400,000 barrels for the week ending Jan. 17, compared with analyst estimates of a 500,000 barrel buildup, according to S & P Global Platts. Elsewhere, production in Libya slowed as rebels blocked exports.
Freeman said oil's price action is an indication that the market is assuming that `` the situation [ coronavirus ] will get worse before it gets better. ''
That said, some on the Street, including Citi's Eric Lee, believe the move lower will be `` short-lived. ''
`` The sell-off following the outbreak of the coronavirus in China looks overdone, even for a market that increasingly shrugs off geopolitical risk, '' he said in a note to clients Thursday night.
When assessing the potential impacts from the coronavirus, analysts are typically looking to the 2002 outbreak of SARS as a reference case. On Thursday, JPMorgan said that if the crisis develops into a `` SARS style epidemic, '' $ 5 per barrel could be shaved from oil prices.
— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that oil fell the most since July. | business |
US Oil Rig Count Inches Higher As Production Hits 13 Million Bpd | After a brutal week for oil prices courtesy of an outbreak of a deadly virus in China, Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US decreased this week, to 794 & mdash; a decrease of 2 rigs. Oil rigs, however, increased for the week. The total oil and gas rig count is now 265 down from this time last year. For oil rigs, this week saw an increase of 3 rigs, according to Baker Hughes data, bringing the total to 676 & mdash; a 186-rig loss year over year. The total number of active gas rigs in the United States fell by 5 according to the report, to 115. This compares to 197 a year ago. & nbsp; Meanwhile, production has finally surpassed the psychologically important threshold of 13 million bpd, according to data provided by the Energy Information Administration, where it has sat for two weeks. & nbsp; The WTI benchmark at 11 & shy; 58pm was $ 54.23 -2.45% per barrel & mdash; a more than $ 4 per barrel decline from this time last week as fears of slowing demand in China once again takes over the market concerns as the new SARS Coronavirus has restricted travel in China ahead of the Lunar New Year weekend. The Brent benchmark was trading at $ 59.89 -2.27% & mdash; nearly $ 5 per barrel below last week & rsquo; s levels. What & rsquo; s more, the EIA is expecting that US shale production will increase by another 22,000 bpd in February, according to the latest Drilling Productivity Report published this week. Canada & rsquo; s overall rig count stayed the same this week, at a total of 244 rigs. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are now up 79 year on year. & nbsp; At 6 minutes past the hour, WTI was trading at $ 54.23, while Brent was trading at $ 59.80. By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com | business |
The Pleasures of a Small Dog Strategy | Investors seeking higher yields might consider taking a walk with some Small Dogs. This isn’ t some exotic alternative asset class. Rather, it’ s a modification on a time-tested investment strategy, the
Dogs of the Dow
, which are the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow industrials. The strategy returned 15% a year for the past decade, outpacing the Dow, and only trailing it in three of the years.
It’ s a simple strategy that has worked. The average dividend yield for 2020 Dogs is 3.7% —twice the yield of the S & P 500—and the stocks trade for on average 15 times estimated 2020 earnings. These Dogs are Big Dogs: The average market value is $ 180 billion.
But we know there’ s more yield available in smaller stocks. So we decided to build a
Barron’ s
Small Dogs portfolio consisting of the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000 with market values over $ 1 billion. The portfolio isn’ t fancy: It consists of lots of real estate, such as
GEO Group
and
Global Net Lease
.
But over the decade, Small Dogs earned 14% a year on average, trailing the Russell 2000 by about a percentage point a year, and a little better than the S & P 500. The Small Dogs was more volatile, year to year, than the broader indexes. Why should investors take higher volatility for similar returns? Because of yield. The Small Dogs average dividend yield over the decade is almost 20%, compared to 1.7% for the Russell 2000. That’ s a huge gap.
Before going out and trying this, investors should ask how they feel about volatility and what impact dividends will have on their taxes. Pass that test and you can take those Small Dogs around the block.
Last Week
Stocks Take a Dive
The spreading coronavirus crisis agitated markets, but losses were cushioned as earnings season rolled on and stocks like
Netflix
and
IBM
surged. But on Friday, virus fears merged with tumbling oil prices, sending stocks south. The Dow industrials shed 1.2%, to 28,989.73 on the week; the S & P 500 lost 1%, to 3295.47; and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8%, to 9314.91.
Mystery Virus Spreads
The coronavirus killed at least 41 ( and counting), with over 1,000 confirmed cases, while spreading throughout China to neighboring countries; two cases appeared in the U.S. The respiratory virus emerged in a market in Wuhan, in central China. Authorities are concerned that the outbreak coincided with the Lunar New Year, when millions of Chinese travel. China took aggressive moves to slow the infection, locking down Wuhan, and nearby cities, home to over 20 million people.
Senate Trial Opens
Impeachment proceedings began with procedural jousting, first over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’ s rules for the trial, then over a series of amendments by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seeking witnesses and documents. The 11 amendments failed, but McConnell, under pressure from moderates, did loosen some of the rules. On Wednesday, opening arguments began, led off by the Democrats. Next week: the GOP defense and the vote on witnesses.
Davos at 50
The corporate and political elite descended on Davos for the 50th World Economic Forum, anxious about the fate of democracy and capitalism, economic growth and climate change. Protestors marched through the Alpine snow toward security ringing the town. President Donald Trump flew in just before his impeachment trial, giving a rally-style speech where he declared, “ America is thriving, America is flourishing, and yes, America is winning again. ” The theme of the meeting: “ Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World. ”
Trade Peace and Threats
France suspended a 3% digital tax, and the U.S. held off on 100% tariffs on French imports, including wine, avoiding a trade war. French President Emmanuel Macron reached out to Trump on Sunday and worked out a deal until a broader agreement on taxation can be negotiated. At Davos, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin threatened new tariffs on the United Kingdom and Italy if it enacted digital taxes. And Trump warned that Europe would face new levies on car imports if it didn’ t agree to a new trade pact.
An ECB Rethink
The European Central Bank launched its first strategic review since 2003, focused on its failure to hit inflation targets. New ECB President Christine Lagarde said the negative-rate policy would continue in the meantime.
Write to
Al Root at
allen.root @ dowjones.com | business |
Mario Gabelli Says It’ s Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. These Two Stocks Fit the Bill. | In this final segment of this year’ s
Barron’ s
Roundtable
, our remaining five panelists share and defend 32 promising investments for 2020.
The investment pros spend more than half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead of the crowd or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. Our
other five participants’ picks
appeared last week.
Weighing in below is Mario Gabelli of
Gamco Investors
.
Mario, let’ s hear about your 2020 picks.
How many picks do you have?
Gabelli
: Nine. First, I’ m back to baseball: Liberty Braves Group ( ticker: BATRA). The stock is at $ 29.70, with 60 million shares and a $ 1.8 billion market value. The Atlanta Braves finished with a 97-65 record last season, so they’ ve done well on the field. Secondly, Major League Baseball is examining the minor-league ownership rules, which should increase the value of their A, AA, and AAA teams. The third point is betting, which is going to keep the eyeballs focused on the game—meaning more advertising and money for the league.
In addition to that, they’ ve got SunTrust Park [ renamed Truist Park ], which is doing extremely well. John Malone controls the voting stock, except for the 18% our clients own. He will exit at some point. The one tiny challenge is that they don’ t have the rights to the television network because they licensed that off.
What could the stock be worth?
Gabelli
: I won’ t sell for less than $ 42.
What’ s your second-favorite sport?
Gabelli
: Basketball: Madison Square Garden ( MSG). It recently closed at $ 300 per share, with under 24 million shares and $ 1 billion in net cash. There’ s some financial engineering going on. Instead of spinning off the sports teams, the New York Knicks, the Rangers, and some other assets are staying in a RemainCo, and they’ re spinning off all their entertainment businesses via a SpinCo, hopefully this quarter.
Forbes
values the Knicks at over $ 4 billion. And you just had Joe Tsai from Alibaba buy a piece of the Nets—and he paid a fairly significant amount of money.
What about the spun-off entertainment businesses?
Gabelli
: Live entertainment and live tours are very popular. Madison Square Garden is a leading live-entertainment venue operator. But I’ m not going to recommend the SpinCo because they’ re building the Sphere [ performance center ] in Las Vegas, which is going to be more expensive than I expected. And they’ re duplicating it in London. So I need to see the economics of that more clearly. But you want to buy the RemainCo, which is the sports teams.
On to No. 3, Mario.
Mario Gabelli:
I’ m going to pivot to a defense company:
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings
( AJRD). They make liquid-fuel, solid-fuel, air-breathing, and electric-propulsion engines—the things that make rockets and missiles go up. The Russians, the Chinese, and the U.S. are all developing hypersonic missiles, which will make our existing missile-defense systems look like the Maginot Line. The Pentagon will have a budget this year of $ 738 billion, up from $ 716 billion. And the U.S. just created the Space Force.
What are Aerojet’ s numbers?
Gabelli:
There are 90 million diluted shares at $ 48, roughly $ 500 million of net cash, and some undervalued real estate assets. Revenues are $ 1.9 billion, with earnings of about $ 1.75 per share. They’ re down, but that’ s because certain products were phased out. We think their results can inch up next year.
Lockheed Martin
( LMT) is their best customer, and that’ s where hypersonics fit in. But space-launch systems are part of Aerojet’ s expertise, and the key driver there is companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX.
Let’ s get back to Earth for your next pick.
“
[ Fox’ s ] quarter that ended in December might not be vibrant, but then results should just roar ahead. With all these politicians running for office and gathering money and spending it, this is going to be a tsunami year for TV broadcasters.
”
— Mario Gabelli
Gabelli:
The next one is Fox ( FOX), at $ 36 per share [ Fox and
Barron’ s
parent company,
News Corp
,
have common ownership ]. They sold their entertainment assets to
Walt Disney
( DIS) since we talked about them last year. I went to their first investor conference in May, where they said they’ re not going to do anything major. But they’ ve already done four acquisitions and a half-billion dollars in share buybacks. For example, they bought a majority stake in Credible Labs, which is a financial-technology company. They bought a position in TSG in Canada because of FOX Bet [ an online gambling operation ]. They’ re also putting money into
WWE
; that’ s wrestling. Live sports and news are part of their DNA.
The quarter that just ended in December might not be vibrant, but then results should just roar ahead. With all these politicians running for office and gathering money and spending it, this is going to be a tsunami year for TV broadcasters. Buy the voting stock [ Class B shares ]. You’ re getting it at a discount to the nonvoting stock, plus you get the vote. They can earn $ 3.50 per share for the year ending in June 2021.
What about another recent media mergers-and-acquisitions story,
ViacomCBS
( VIACA)?
Gabelli:
That one has been very painful for the past four years. They finally merged on Dec. 4. Again, you’ ve got to buy the voting stock. National Amusements—Shari Redstone—owns 42 million of the 52 million shares, which sell at a $ 3 to $ 4 premium to the nonvoting shares. The whole company has a $ 24 billion equity value. That’ s a tiny morsel for Apple [ AAPL ] or
Amazon.com
( AMZN) in the hunt for content. Their studio, Paramount, has 3,600 movie titles, and they have 140,000 TV episodes in their content library. They have NFL football. They have [ CEO ] Bob Bakish. Meanwhile, they’ re becoming an arms dealer to all of the Peacocks, Hulus, Disney+s, and Netflixes of the world. My dream wish on this one is that Sony Pictures merges with Paramount. Let’ s create a content juggernaut.
In calendar 2020, we see $ 6.5 billion of Ebitda. Also, they are selling CBS’ Manhattan headquarters—Black Rock. Over the next five years, they’ re going to generate about $ 30 billion of Ebitda. Capital expenditure is de minimis—like $ 200 million a year. The result is significant cash flow, so they can spend $ 14 billion on new content and bolster their Pluto TV and other streaming properties.
Mario Gabelli's Picks
Source: Bloomberg
Read More Roundtable
Read the picks—and pans—from these panelists
Abby Joseph Cohen: Buy L3Harris Stock Because Its Dividend Could Grow Double-Digits
Todd Ahlsten: Deere Is a Titan and Its Stock Is a Bargain
Mario Gabelli: Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. Here are Two.
Sonal Desai: Buy the Yen and Gold. Both Will Beat Oil
Scott Black: Buy Royal Caribbean Stock Even Though Coronavirus Fears Are Slamming It
Tesla and 25 Other Stock Picks & Pans from the Barron’ s Roundtable
Almost No Chance of a Recession
2019 Midyear Roundtable: Where to Find Value
Scott Black:
They generate free cash flow, but there’ s no growth, Mario. It’ s all financial engineering. I don’ t see it. The company’ s impaired; it has been for a long time.
Gabelli:
The stock has clearly reflected that.
Black:
I agree it’ s undervalued. But it’ s a value trap.
We’ ll leave that up to the market. What are your last picks, Mario?
Gabelli:
My theme for the 2020s is saving planet Earth. An idea linked to that is Connecticut-based Avangrid ( AGR), which trades at $ 50. They have a regulated utility business, and their $ 10 billion rate base is growing. So, we’ ll have a tailwind to earnings and a rising dividend. The second part is the renewables business; they’ re a major factor in solar and wind.
Iberdrola
( IBE.Spain), the Spanish utility ], owns over 250 million of the 310 million shares outstanding.
My seventh pick,
NextEra Energy Partners
( NEP), at $ 52, also represents a significant opportunity in renewables.
Two to go.
Gabelli:
The next one makes a product that even my wife likes. It’ s called Aperol. Aperol spritzes are the big thing now, made by
Davide Campari-Milano
( CPR.Italy). They’ re selling at about eight euros. Aperol is about 20% of their revenues, Campari is 18%. They also have Wild Turkey, which is what got me interested in the company years ago. And they have extraordinarily competent management.
Finally, Swedish Match ( SWMA.Sweden), at around 500 kronor. It’ s best known for making snus [ smokeless, moist powdered tobacco ] and ( ZYN) nicotine pouches. It’ s simple. They’ re selling ZYN in more and more locations in the U.S., and growing fast. The only short-term challenge is that the Swedish krona has come down sharply, relative to the dollar, which means their significant revenues in the U.S. benefit. If the krona gets a little stronger, they lose some of that.
Thanks, Mario.
Write to
Leslie P. Norton at
leslie.norton @ barrons.com | business |
Oil Bears Are Back As Demand Fears Go Viral | Pessimism has returned to oil markets, with Brent testing the $ 60-per-barrel threshold. & nbsp; Friday, January 24th, 2020WTI fell below $ 55 per barrel in early trading on Friday, and Brent was testing the $ 60-per-barrel threshold. Pessimism is back, and there is a danger of prices sliding further. Saudi Arabia says & ldquo; all options are open & rdquo; at March meeting. Saudi energy minister said that all options are on the table for the March meeting, hinting at further production cuts to head off another market meltdown. EIA Drilling slowing. The latest EIA Drilling Productivity Report estimates oil production growth of just 22,000 bpd in February, a much slower pace than usual. Production gains of 45,000 bpd in the Permian are to be offset by declines of 16,000 bpd in the Anadarko, along with smaller declines in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara. Gas output is set to grow slightly, with Permian gains offset by larger declines in Appalachia, Anadarko and Niobrara. Related EIA Sees Lower Brent Prices On Fading Geopolitical Risk Impact of coronavirus grows. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs estimated that the coronavirus in China could shave off $ 3 from the price of oil. But the impact appears to be growing. China has quarantined Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The travel restrictions were expanded on Friday, now affecting at least 35 million people. The virus helped drag down crude oil prices this week. U.S. natural gas production may sink for first time. Aside from a hiatus during the 2016 market downturn, U.S. natural gas output has been growing for a decade. That may be coming to an end as prices plunge below $ 2/MMBtu. BloombergNEF data shows that gas well completions have fallen to their lowest level since the second quarter. & nbsp; Global LNG prices collapse. LNG prices are on track to hit an all-time low in Asia later this summer. Gas is also at its weakest seasonally in the U.S. and Europe since the late 1990s. & ldquo; There & rsquo; s a surplus already in the U.S. and Europe. And the mild winter in Asia means another surplus is building up there, & rdquo; Marco Dunand, chief executive officer of trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., told Bloomberg. Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group Ltd., said U.S. LNG exporters are 50 cents away from shutdowns. Energy bankruptcies pile up. The North American oil and gas sector has seen more than 200 bankruptcies since 2015, a figure that could continue to climb this year. Roughly $ 40 billion in debt matures this year, posing a problem for companies struggling under high debt and having trouble finding access to fresh capital. Radioactive brine a growing problem. Several new investigations this week highlight the problem of radioactivity in the brine that comes out of oil and gas wells. An expansive piece in Rolling Stone illustrates how pervasive the issue is and how little the public knows about it. Another in Grist looks at how the industry faces a different set of rules on handling wastewater between the eastern and western United States. The Trump administration is trying to loosen rules in the east. Another in DeSmog looks at the history & ndash; that the industry has known about the problem for about 40 years. LNG export terminals have CO2 impact rivaling coal. LNG is often depicted as innocuous, with gas helping to wean the world off coal. But new data suggests that LNG export terminals themselves have carbon footprints rivaling coal. Kinder Morgan takes $ 1 billion write-down. Kinder Morgan NYSE KMI took a $ 1 billion impairment in the fourth quarter, related to a gas pipeline in Wyoming. Related Has Natural Gas Hit Rock Bottom Interior authorizes construction of Keystone XL. The U.S. Department of Interior authorized the construction of TC Energy & rsquo; s NYSE TRP Keystone XL pipeline across federal land in Montana, an important step for the project. Still, the pipeline faces other legal challenges in the state. Arizona utility going carbon-free by 2050. Arizona Public Service said it would become carbon-free by 2050, just two years after spending heavily to defeat a ballot measure that would have required the company to generate half of its electricity from renewables by 2030. Despite that ballot measure, the company now says it will aim for two-thirds renewables by 2030. Climate change could set off financial crisis. A major report from the Bank of International Settlements, which is essentially a coalition of the world & rsquo; s central banks, said that climate change could lead to a financial crisis. The report also said that central banks lack the tools to resolve a hypothetical financial crisis stemming from climate change. Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren D-MA is requesting information from the country & rsquo; s largest banks on their climate risks. Also, climate change was widely seen as one of the most important topics at the World Economic Forum in Davos, evidence that pressure is growing not just on the oil industry, but also on major financial institutions. By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com | business |
Short-video apps like Douyin, Kuaishou become news sources for Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China | As Chinese authorities have put Wuhan, the capital of China’ s Hubei province, in quarantine on Thursday due to the coronavirus, short-video apps like Douyin and Kuaishou have become one of the most important channels for outsiders to know what’ s happening on the ground. | business |
Market Talk Roundup: Coronavirus Hits Stocks, Oil; McDonald's Suspends Some China Operations | The latest Market Talks covering the impact of the coronavirus. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1554 GMT - U.S. stocks turn negative after the CDC confirms the second US case of a deadly coronavirus that originated in China. The Dow falls 7 points to 29153 and the S & P 500 declines 0.2% to 3317. Energy companies slide with oil prices on demand worries and the health-care sector is a big decliner as well. Investors are seeking haven assets -- gold gains 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yields falls below 1.70% for the first time since early November and the dollar is at its strongest vs euro since November. ( jonathan.vuocolo @ wsj.com; @ jonvuocolo)
1549 GMT - McDonald's joins a growing list of companies suspending some operations in China amid the coronavirus outbreak. The fast-food giant temporarily closes all restaurants in Wuhan, Ezhou, Huanggang, Qianjiang and Xiantao while health officials grapple with the virus. McDonald's was already requiring its workers in the country to wear masks and have their temperatures taken. Disney earlier said it was temporarily closing its Disneyland and Disneytown parks in Shanghai. McDonald's shares slip 0.2%. ( colin.kellaher @ wsj.com)
1313 GMT - Brent crude oil is down 0.4% at $ 61.77 a barrel and WTI futures are down 0.3% at $ 55.44 a barrel with the benchmarks on course to close out the week with losses of 4.6% and 5.3% amid an intensifying coronavirus outbreak. `` Oil's beating continues as the lockdown situation keeps getting worse in China, '' Oanda's Edward Moya says. `` Travel bans during the Lunar New Year holiday period are much worse than what the impact would be if the U.S. had bans during Thanksgiving and Christmas, '' he says. Russian media reports of a possible OPEC+ cut deal extension are having little impact on prices, Moya says, although OPEC's Mohammad Barkindo said Thursday such talk was premature, Reuters reports. ( david.hodari @ wsj.com; @ davidhodari)
1026 GMT - Remy Cointreau could potentially take a `` significant '' hit from the coronavirus given the drinks maker's high exposure to China, CFO Luca Marotta says in a conference call following 3Q sales reporting. Under this scenario, the impact would translate to a `` potential slowdown in the coming months, '' Marotta says. Remy Cointreau also suspended its guidance, citing a change in leadership and a new strategy in the works, but Marotta says the risk posed by the coronavirus also contributed to the company's decision not to back its existing goals. Remy Cointreau shares trade 8.8% lower at EUR102.10. ( cristina.roca @ dowjones.com)
0905 GMT - Copper prices are heading for biggest one-week fall in more than five months, as the spread of coronavirus raises worries that it will stifle activity in China's economy and hurt demand for industrial metals. Three-month copper futures are down 0.2% at $ 6,014 a metric ton, putting them on course to lose 2.1% for the week as a whole, which would mark their biggest weekly decline since early August. `` China is the world's largest metal consumer and any slowdown in industrial activity could start to weigh on metals demand, '' says Wenyu Yao, a metals analyst at ING. Still, she expects base-metal markets to be quiet next week because the Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed for Lunar New Year. ( joe.wallace @ wsj.com)
| business |
China is Building a Hospital in 6 Days to Fight Coronavirus | The government of Wuhan City in China has decided to build a 1,000 bed hospital in six days to fight the recent coronavirus outbreak. The project aims builds off the previous construction of Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital in just a week's time back in 2003. As the quarantined Wuhan City's existing hospitals are overwhelmed, they have turned to social media for medical supplies and have begun to turn away patients.
The government of Wuhan City in China has decided to build a 1,000 bed hospital in six days to fight the recent coronavirus outbreak. The project aims builds off the previous construction of Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital in just a week's time back in 2003. As the quarantined Wuhan City's existing hospitals are overwhelmed, they have turned to social media for medical supplies and have begun to turn away patients.
The rapid construction project is a reaction to hospitals running out of beds in an effort to better address the coronavirus outbreak. Currently, the virus has now killed 26 people and infected around 830 worldwide. As CGTN states, work began on the new hospital in the Caidian district of Wuhan on Thursday night. The 270,000-square-foot facility is expected to be up and running by Feb “ to address the insufficiency of existing medical resources, ” city officials said, according to the official Xinhua news agency. While plans for the building are still being finalized, they are expected to be sent to the construction company this week.
The rapid construction project is a reaction to hospitals running out of beds in an effort to better address the coronavirus outbreak. Currently, the virus has now killed 26 people and infected around 830 worldwide. As CGTN states, work began on the new hospital in the Caidian district of Wuhan on Thursday night. The 270,000-square-foot facility is expected to be up and running by Feb “ to address the insufficiency of existing medical resources, ” city officials said, according to the official Xinhua news agency. While plans for the building are still being finalized, they are expected to be sent to the construction company this week.
Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have been reported in the U.S., Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Macau, and Taiwan.
Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have been reported in the U.S., Vietnam, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Macau, and Taiwan.
Related Article A Closer Look at the Chinese Hospitals Built to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic
News via CGTN and WSJ.
News via CGTN and WSJ.
We invite you to check out ArchDaily's coverage related to COVID-19, read our tips and articles on Productivity When Working from Home and learn about technical recommendations for Healthy Design in your future projects. Also, remember to review the latest advice and information on COVID-19 from the World Health Organization ( WHO) website.
We invite you to check out ArchDaily's coverage related to COVID-19, read our tips and articles on Productivity When Working from Home and learn about technical recommendations for Healthy Design in your future projects. Also, remember to review the latest advice and information on COVID-19 from the World Health Organization ( WHO) website.
Related Article A Closer Look at the Chinese Hospitals Built to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic
| tech |
Intel Starts 2020 With Record Numbers |
The company’ s client computing and data center business segments were the top performers, together accounting for 85% of the quarter’ s revenue alone. And these are segments that are growing at a rate usually seen with younger, more ripe revenue streams. The data center segment was up 19% year on year as the company races to meet surging demand from the growing cloud computing space. As the likes of Amazon and Microsoft expand their cloud offerings, the likes of Intel and their data centers stand well-positioned to capture the spillover growth.
On this point, Bob Swan, the company’ s CEO, said “ in 2019, we gained share in an expanded addressable market that demands more performance to process, move and store data. One year into our long-term financial plan, we have outperformed our revenue and EPS expectations. Looking ahead, we are investing to win the technology inflections of the future, play a bigger role in the success of our customers and increase shareholder returns. ''
Wall Street has been on top of the growing opportunity here for months. Having been range-bound for two years through the end of last summer, shares turned on the heat in August and started the 40% run that looks set to continue today. This will be a welcome reprieve for investors who had grown used to Intel, somewhat understandably considering its size and maturity, lagging the broader tech market over the past decade. Compared to the broader tech market seen in the NASDAQ index, Intel is up just over 200% since January 2010 while the tech index is up closer to 400%. However, since January 2017, the two have gone toe to toe in performance and in a sign of the new lease of life being seen in Intel, in the past six months they’ re comfortably the leader.
document.write ( ' < a style= '' text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal; color: # 696969; '' target= '' blank '' rel= '' nofollow '' href= '' https: //www.ame ' + 'ricanconsumernews.net/scripts/click.aspx? NativeDisplayAdID=589 & ImpressionID=0 & UserID=0 & Placement=PlaceOnArticlePage '' > '); Wall Street Legend, Teeka Tiwari, who picked Apple in 2003 -- and Bitcoin in 2016 -- shares his # 1 Pick for the 2020s.
While the company will struggle to offer investors the same returns that rival chip makers like AMD can and have, the lack of volatility that comes with that will attract a different type of investor. Based on market cap, Intel is about 5 times the size of AMD and their lack of annual triple-digit percentage growth makes them no less attractive.
Earlier this week, Jefferies upgraded the company and Bank of America was out with an upgrade last month and a fresh price target citing the huge growth potential along with the massive $ 20 billion stock repurchase program and dividend yield as being extremely attractive to investors.
When comparing total yield to investors ( dividend yield + buyback yield), Intel is ahead of most of its peers in the chip-making space. AMD offers no dividend and has no repurchase program, meaning their total yield is 0%. Nvidia’ s ( NASDAQ: NVDA) is 2.5%, Intel’ s is 7%. Qualcomm’ s ( NASDAQ: QCOM) is an impressive 26% but for all that, their shares have significantly underperformed Intel’ s over the past decade.
For those looking to get involved at these levels, technically the stock is looking structurally sound and has a history of usually playing by the rules. It bounced off support at $ 43 multiple times in recent years and is heading into blue sky territory with a strong uptrend behind it. This is a company that knows what they’ re doing. It’ s seeing growth in all the right places and with full-year revenue at all-time highs along with the stock, investors, analysts and management alike are right to be so excited about Intel’ s prospects into 2020.
6 Gambling Stocks Ready For a Rebound
If you didn’ t believe that gambling stocks are a worthwhile investment, consider this. The Business Research Company projects the global gambling market to reach $ 565.4 billion through 2022. That assumes that the industry will continue growing at is annual rate of 5.9%. The gambling industry is composed of many segments. There are casinos, lotteries, and the now legalized segment of sports betting. But gambling is also broken down into offline gambling, online gambling and even virtual reality gambling. In fact, virtual reality gambling is projected to grow at an annual rate of 21.5% until 2022. But virtual reality is only one of a number of emerging technologies that are changing the “ traditional ” face of the gambling industry. There are now hybrid games – the combination of online and land-based games and even augmented reality games. And don’ t forget about fantasy sports. Fantasy sports has created an entire industry and it wasn’ t created for one person to have bragging rights over their buddies. Fantasy sports is a multi-million industry. But like many other segments of the economy, gambling stocks were hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. Not only were casinos closed, but live sports were also put on hold. This dried up many of the traditional avenues of gambling, and gambling stocks sank lower as a result. However, the global economy is starting to re-open. And while it was thought that casinos would be one of the last to come back, there are casinos that are starting to re-open. And, it’ s becoming more and more likely that there will be live sports ( likely without fans initially) sooner rather than later. And that will open up the fantasy sports market. These stocks tend to move quickly. So now is the time to take action. That’ s why we’ ve created this special presentation that highlights 6 gambling stocks that are ready for a rebound. The sell-off was real, but so will the comeback. And when it does, these stocks may cost much more than they do now.
View the `` 6 Gambling Stocks Ready For a Rebound ''.
Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts ' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter: | business |
IHSE Expands the Draco Ultra Series with New KVM Extender Models | IHSE is expanding the successful Draco ultra series with additional KVM extender models.
These new models enable the transmission of high-definition video signals, including HDMI 1.3, SDI, DVI-I and DVI-D. The Draco ultra range is based on the Lici video codec, developed in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Integrated Circuits ( IIS), to provide high efficiency in video transmission.
The Draco vario ultra series KVM extenders deliver quality in the transmission of high definition video at 60 frames per second, alongside keyboard, mouse and data signals with very little latency.
The new Draco ultra extender models enable remote operation of a computer from a user workstation, consisting of a keyboard, mouse and video screen, and are capable of handling HDMI 1.3 and 2.0, SDI, DVI-D and DVI-I ( VGA) signals. The SDI extender further converts SDI sources for display on standard computer monitors. Digital audio signals can be de-embedded and output as analogue audio to other devices such as external speakers or headphones.
The DisplayPort 1.2 and HDMI 2.0 models deliver 4K60 video with a colour depth of 10 bits per RGB colour channel and optimal 4:4:4 colour sampling over a single KVM connection.
By synchronising multiple Draco ultra extenders, resolutions like 8K or 5K x 3K can be achieved, which is particularly useful for large displays in showrooms and presentation areas.
Draco ultra KVM extenders are good for users who need reliable, real-time, high-resolution remote computer content with minimal cabling. They are an excellent choice for professional AV applications in rental and staging, highly secure control centres, and virtual reality installations.
Enterprises are built around people who need to access data, communicate with each other, and...
In the new major international airport in Berlin-Brandenburg, KVM technology from the German developer and...
In the new major international airport in Berlin-Brandenburg, keyboard, video and mouse ( KVM) technology from...
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries have instigated social distance measures for their...
| general |
China sends in military doctors to help Wuhan hospitals fight coronavirus outbreak | China is mobilising its military doctors to help to contain the Wuhan | business |
MIT monitoring 2019 novel coronavirus | On Dec. 31, 2019, the World Health Organization learned about a number of cases of pneumonia of unknown origin in Wuhan City, in the Hubei Province of China. On Jan. 7, Chinese authorities identified the cause as a novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) — a member of the coronavirus family that had never been encountered before.
Common human coronaviruses usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold, with symptoms that last only a short time. However, two other human coronaviruses, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, have been known to cause severe symptoms and even death.
Symptoms of the 2019 novel coronavirus include fever, cough, and shortness of breath. A small number of infected individuals have died. Like other human coronaviruses, it is thought to have originated in animals, possibly seafood. Many of the first people infected either worked at or frequently shopped in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan City. Researchers do not yet know how easily the virus spreads between people.
As of this writing, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control ( CDC) has reported least two confirmed cases in the U.S., with others suspected to have the virus. All appear to involve individuals who recently traveled to the U.S. from Wuhan.
As of now, there is no identified risk to the MIT community. The CDC is not currently recommending travel restrictions but has updated its interim travel health notice for this destination, which recommends enhanced precautions and provides information to people who may be traveling to Wuhan City and who may get sick.
MIT and MIT Medical are monitoring the situation closely and will be keeping the Institute community informed as more is learned about the virus, or if new travel or other recommendations are made. | business |
Epic pushes out software update to help spot coronavirus | Epic this week sent out an update to its healthcare customers, meant to help providers nationwide detect potential cases of the Wuhan novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV.
WHY IT MATTERS Epic has standardized the new travel screening questionnaire in an effort to ensure clinicians and other front-line medical staff ask patients about recent international travel.
If patients say they have traveled from China, or show symptoms consistent with Wuhan novel coronavirus, providers are now advised to start isolation precautions to help contain potential infection.
Epic says this new update was developed in collaboration with biocontainment experts, infectious disease physicians and others with guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
Early this week, the Epic Travel and Communicable Disease Advisory Board, which comprises infectious disease clinicians practicing at healthcare organizations using Epic, started discussing updates to the travel screening in Epic to detect possible cases of 2019-nCoV.
Members of the advisory board include experts at Providence St. Joseph Health in Washington, which, upon treating the first 2019-nCoV case in the United States, `` quickly turned on an electronic prompt for doctors and nurses to ask travel screening questions, '' as reported by Politico.
The board determined that healthcare organizations will automatically get the new coronavirus alert within Epic’ s travel screening activity. In addition, Epic says its representatives are reaching out to its provider customers to verify that they have IT workflows that follow CDC guidelines.
THE LARGER TREND In 2014, Epic found itself in the middle of a debate related to another public health crisis – the outbreak of the Ebola virus – and to what extent EHR workflows might be related to timely detection and effective response protocols.
That September, Thomas Eric Duncan was admitted to the emergency department at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas, complaining of symptoms consistent with Ebola. Although he told his nurse that he 'd recently traveled to Africa, and it was noted in his EHR, that detail wasn't discerned by the physician, who discharged him from the ED. Duncan returned to the hospital four days later with worsening symptoms and only then was he diagnosed as the first Ebola patient in the U.S.
Initially, Texas Health Resources sought to explain why that key travel information was missed by noting that, `` as designed, the travel history would not automatically appear in the physician's standard workflow. ''
Two days later, however, THR walked back that statement, clarifying that there was `` no flaw in the EHR in the way the physician and nursing portions interacted related to this event '' and that the patient's travel history `` was available to the full care team. ''
At any rate, the case highlighted how technology, the health systems that configure it and the clinicians who use it are all key factors for fast and efficient diagnosis.
ON THE RECORD `` Rapid response to an outbreak is critical to contain it, get patients the treatment they need, and protect other patients and staff, '' said James Doyle, Epic's clinical informatics R & D lead, in a statement about the new coronavirus update.
He added that Epic is committed to helping ensure its healthcare clients will be `` covered by the latest guidelines from the CDC in consultation with leading experts. ''
“ Clinicians on our travel advisory board define the standard for the rapid translation of public health outbreak notifications into actionable warnings, '' added Dr. Chris Alban, a clinical informaticist at Epic. `` Organizations using Epic automatically get advisories in their system as soon as they’ re created. Health systems can respond quickly with this configuration that’ s been vetted by the experts. ''
Twitter: @ MikeMiliardHITN Email the writer: mike.miliard @ himssmedia.com
Healthcare IT News is a publication of HIMSS Media. | tech |
If You Missed Out on Tesla Stock, Consider This Chinese Car Maker | Shares in electric-vehicle pioneer
Tesla
have been
on a tear
, gaining some 125% over the past three months, crushing the gains of the
S & P 500
and
Dow Jones Industrial Average
.
While better-than-expected third-quarter earnings were a major catalyst, growing optimism about the
Chinese EV
market also helped.
Tesla ( ticker: TSLA) just started delivering Model 3 vehicles built in a new
Shanghai facility
to customers in China.
China is the world’ s
biggest market
for electric cars, and growth is expected to continue. But there are more ways than just Tesla to play it. Investors frustrated about
missing out
on Telsa’ s epic run may want to consider looking at Chinese EV maker BYD ( 1211.Hong Kong).
“ We believe China EV [ penetration ] goes from 5% today to 10% in the next two years, ” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told
Barron’ s
. “ Global EV [ penetration ] will be 7% by 2024. ”
Ives is talking about the percentage of new-car sales that will be electric. U.S. EV penetration is about 2%, less than half Chinese levels. “ China is the fuel for Tesla on EV demand, ” Ives said.
Ives doesn’ t cover BYD, but does cover Tesla and rates its shares the equivalent of Hold, with a
$ 550 price target
. He is optimistic about China and EV demand overall, but Tesla’ s high valuation keeps him from recommending the stock.
Tesla, after all, is now a member of the
$ 100 billion
market-capitalization club. There are only about 50 companies in the U.S. with market values that high. Tesla is now the second-largest car company in the world, trailing only
Toyota Motor
( TM). BYD’ s market cap, conversely, is about $ 25 billion.
BYD makes more cars than Tesla does and sold about
460,000 vehicles
in 2019, compared with 367,500 Tesla sold globally. Tesla, however, sells higher-end cars. It generated about $ 24 billion in 2019 sales, while BYD will take in closer to $ 18 billion.
Unlike Tesla, the Chinese auto maker sells both battery-powered and internal-combustion vehicles, and about half of BYD sales are EVs. While Tesla sells more electric cars overall, BYD’ s EV sales outpace Tesla’ s in China.
Both companies are profitable. Tesla has made money for two straight quarters and generated positive free cash flow as well. BYD has been profitable for years.
Neither stock, though, is cheap. Tesla trades for more than 80 times estimated 2020 earnings of $ 6.78 a share. BYD trades for 50 times earnings of about 92 Hong Kong cents a share, or about 12 U.S. cents.
BYD trades in Hong Kong and reports in Hong Kong dollars. The market values and sales comparisons are in U.S. dollars. BYD also trades in the U.S. as an American depositary receipt ( BYDDF). The ADRs closed Thursday at $ 5.98, down 1.3%, as the entire Chinese market sold off on coronavirus fears.
Read More Trader
The Stock Market Finally Finds a Reason to Fall. What Comes Next?
Oil Tumbled This Week. It’ s Time to Buy Energy Stocks Like BP.
BYD is also cheaper, relatively speaking, than Tesla because its growth isn’ t as robust. BYD sales fell in 2019, while Tesla vehicle deliveries grew about 50%. But the entire Chinese new-car market declined by about 8% in 2019. Despite the dip, EV penetration increased in China year over year.
BYD has one more thing going for it: Warren Buffett. His
Berkshire Hathaway
( BRK.A) owns
more than 8%
of the company. Buffett, however, bought a long time ago, back around 2008, when BYD shares were about one-third the price they are today.
Still, Buffett appears to believe in the future of electric cars. And, judging by Tesla’ s recent market action, most other investors do too.
Write to
Al Root at
allen.root @ dowjones.com | business |
As Climate Crisis Hits Tipping Point, Fashion Comes to Davos. Is It Enough? | This Week in Fashion
Leaders from big fashion brands descended on the World Economic Forum for the first time with the climate crisis top of mind. But the elephant in the room was the fundamental tension between sustainability and growth.
This Week in Fashion
Leaders from big fashion brands descended on the World Economic Forum for the first time with the climate crisis top of mind. But the elephant in the room was the fundamental tension between sustainability and growth.
Hello BoF Professionals, your exclusive 'This Week in Fashion ' briefing is ready, with members-only analysis on the key topic of the week and a digest of the week's top news.This week, top political and business leaders from around the world descended on Davos, Switzerland, for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. On Monday, the IMF cut its forecasts for global economic growth this year from 3.4 percent in October to 3.3 percent, casting a cloud over the opening of the event, which organisers had hoped would focus on “ stakeholder capitalism, ” the notion that companies have a wider purpose beyond mere profit-making and delivering returns to shareholders.On the agenda were a wide range of issues, from the rise of totalitarianism to the future of work to the artificial intelligence arms race between the United States and China. But by far the biggest topic of the week was the growing climate crisis that, on the first day of the event, was at the centre of a dramatic showdown between US President Donald Trump and Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, who reprimanded world leaders again at Davos this year for doing little to curb climate change.UN Secretary-General António Guterres delivered a stark warning later in the week. “ Humankind has declared a war on nature and nature is striking back in a very violent way, ” he said, adding that humanity was “ doomed ” unless “ big emitters ” take action.Humankind has declared a war on nature and nature is striking back in a very violent way.The topic was certainly the principal reason why many more business leaders from the fashion world, including top managers like Gucci’ s Marco Bizzarri, Ralph Lauren’ s Patrice Louvet and Nadja Swarovski, came to Davos this year, as both consumers and government regulators ask increasingly urgent questions about fashion’ s role in the climate crisis and chief executives awaken to the need to take action on the issue to diffuse mounting criticism and better connect with shoppers.Back in November, Bizzarri issued an open invitation to chief executives across industries to join Gucci in its pledge to go carbon neutral by reducing its emissions and paying millions of dollars annually to offset those emissions that it could not eliminate from its supply chain. And this week, the Gucci chief came to Davos to appear on panels like “ Business Case for Safeguarding Nature ” and push his “ CEO Carbon Neutral Challenge, ” which was accepted by software company SAP, resulting in plenty of media-friendly pictures of Bizzarri and SAP co-Chief Executive Jennifer Morgan.Gucci’ s parent company Kering has made sustainability a key focus and, at the request of French President Emmanuel Macron, Kering Chief Executive François-Henri Pinault has spearheaded a “ Fashion Pact ” to reduce the negative environmental impact of what is one of the world’ s largest and most heavily polluting industries. ( Hermès, Chanel, Prada and others have since joined the pact, though LVMH, the world’ s largest luxury group, has been relatively quiet on the matter and has not joined the Pinault-initiated pact).Ralph Lauren’ s Louvet also participated in several small and large roundtable discussions and bilateral talks in Davos, with a focus on sustainability and gender inclusion.Getting senior fashion executives and sustainability advocates present in Davos for the first time was an important first step in addressing the fashion industry's role in the climate crisis, even if key players were still missing from the conversations. But the industry still doesn’ t seem ready to face the elephant in the room: the fundamental tension between greater sustainability and a fashion business model that is rooted in overconsumption and obsolescence.Last year, consumers bought 114 billion items of clothing.Last year, consumers bought 114 billion items of clothing, or nearly 15 new garments for every person on planet Earth, according to Global Fashion Agenda, an advocacy group. What’ s more, by 2030, global fashion production is set to grow by 81 percent, and new materials innovators like Andras Forgacs of lab-grown leather start-up Modern Meadow, who was also in Davos this week, are simply not progressing fast enough to offset the environmental impact.On Tuesday, Global Fashion Agenda issued an update to its “ CEO Agenda ” — a set of priorities for executives focused on reducing the industry’ s environmental footprint — and led a roundtable on redesigning growth. The discussion was attended by the likes of Target, Ralph Lauren and PVH, which owns Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. But despite the surge in fashion leaders talking about sustainability and the need to drive real change in the way businesses operate, those open to actually rethinking fashion’ s business model remain few and far between.As new IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned attendees on Friday as the annual meeting was set to close, certain measures required to tackle the climate crisis will necessarily mean that some industries will be less profitable in the future. According to innovation platform Fashion For Good and Boston Consulting Group, also on hand in Davos, the fashion industry needs to spend more than $ 20 billion annually on sustainable innovation in new materials, processes, technologies, and business models to realise the necessary industry transformation. How quickly the fashion industry grapples with this fundamental mindset shift will be critical to the industry’ s success in reducing its carbon impact.THE NEWS IN BRIEFFASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMYCustomers wearing face masks at a luxury mall in Shanghai | Source: Casey HallLuxury stocks hit on new China virus fears. $ 15 billion was wiped off the luxury sector's market value on fears the coronavirus outbreak could hurt sales. Chinese shoppers account for 35 percent of global luxury goods sales and 90 percent of last year's growth in the market. Such statistics illustrate the damage that could be done to luxury goods companies if health fears deter Chinese consumers from travelling or going shopping at home.Balenciaga will return to haute couture. In July, the famed French fashion house will show its first couture collection since founder Cristóbal Balenciaga closed the atelier in 1968. The move underscores Balenciaga’ s ambitions after several years of meteoric growth, driven by Creative Director Demna Gvasalia’ s genius for disruption and meme-able hits. The brand crossed the billion-dollar sales mark last year, more than doubling its size in the course of just three years.Cos undergoes executive shake-up. The head of H & M group’ s second-biggest brand and two other senior executives are exiting in a challenging market. The brand’ s star has recently faded as newer additions to H & M group’ s stable of brands, like Arket, have begun to attract more attention. The reshuffle at Cos represents some of the biggest leadership changes since the brand was launched in 2007. Ted Baker's balance sheet blunder worsens. An investigation by Deloitte found the British retailer's stock was overstated by £58 million, more than double its preliminary estimate. It is the latest in a string of setbacks in the last year, including profit warnings, a decision to suspend dividend payments, and management changes after misconduct allegations against Founder Ray Kelvin.A ban on Vaporfly shoe could boost Nike's bottom line. The controversial shoe is said to give runners an unfair advantage due to high-tech carbon plate and foam sole technology. Debate has raged among athletes and commentators about whether the shoes should be allowed. But Nike is likely to capitalise on the controversy with amateurs hoping for more spring in their step.Burberry faces Hong Kong slump. The British luxury brand saw sales in Hong Kong halve amid anti-government protests, while sales in Europe and mainland China increased. Hong Kong was a major market for Burberry and had previously accounted for 8 percent of sales. It has not closed any of its stores in the territory yet, but is taking steps to mitigate the impact, for example by reviewing rents.Hugo Boss sees strong Christmas quarter. Demand at the German label's renovated stores and growth in online retail drove better-than-expected sales. Fourth-quarter sales rose 4 percent to €825 million ( $ 915.34 million), beating average analysts ' forecast of €805 million. The label’ s shares increased by 2.4 percent in premarket trade as a result.British retail sales drop for fifth month running. Consumer demand in the UK is softening, despite low unemployment and modest inflation. Official data showed sales volumes fell by 0.6 percent from November, defying the median forecast for a rise of 0.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists. Sales in monthly terms have not risen since July, the longest such run since records began in 1996.Private equity firm Peninsula invests in Zadig & Voltaire. Current minority partner TA Associates will be exiting its investment in the Parisian label, while Zadig & Voltaire said it would remain majority-owned by its founder Thierry Gillier. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTYMac Cosmetics ' display inside the new Nordstrom New York store | Source: CourtesyBrands are rethinking the standalone store. Mac Cosmetics, which has an entirely new leadership team for the first time since being acquired by Estée Lauder, is giving its retail format an update. The beauty brand will close six New York City stores to put greater reinvestment in remaining locations and focus on “ experiences. ” The move comes as standalone beauty stores face increasing competition from the likes of Sephora, Ulta and Amazon. Luxury Brand Partners has raised $ 50 million. The incubator to beauty brands such as Oribe Hair Care and Becca has secured an investment from Bookend Capital Partners. The deal is part of Luxury Brand Partners’ plan for increased growth, which will include signing a roster of new brands.PEOPLEJean Paul Gaultier's last show | Source: Getty ImagesJean Paul Gaultier says goodbye to the runway. The designer's Spring/Summer 2020 couture show was his last. Known as the “ enfant terrible ” of French fashion, Gaultier launched his business in 1982 and introduced his couture collection in 1997. In 2014, Gaultier dissolved his ready-to-wear label in order to focus on couture and collaborations, citing the hamster-wheel pace and aesthetic constraints of mass-produced collections. Dries Van Noten taps former Ports 1961 MD for president. Dries van Noten has appointed Matteo De Rosa as president, effective February 1. De Rosa joins the Puig-owned company from Australian luxury group Kennedy, where he was managing director of fashion and lifestyle and group commercial officer. Prior to Kennedy Luxury Group, he was managing director at fashion label Ports 1961.Agent Provocateur names CEO and CCO. Michelle Ryan has been appointed chief executive at Agent Provocateur, effective January 20. Ryan joins the company from Kurt Geiger, where she served as buying and supply chain director. The lingerie brand has also promoted Kerry Neill from joint managing director to chief commercial officer, reporting to Ryan in her new role. MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGYTencent to step up investment overseas and in smart retail. The Chinese tech giant announced in a rare disclosure that it will also pay more attention to payment platforms. Tencent has already invested in more than 800 companies, including 70 listed companies and over 160 are valued at more than $ 1 billion. Asos beats sales forecasts. The online retailer's sales growth indicates that it has addressed operational issues after overhauling its warehouse and technology capabilities. The stock was up 11 percent after Asos, which sells fashion aimed at 20-somethings, reported a 20 percent rise in retail sales to £1.075 billion ( $ 1.41 billion).BoF Professional is your competitive advantage in a fast-changing fashion industry. Missed some BoF Professional exclusive features? Click here to browse the a
This week, top political and business leaders from around the world descended on Davos, Switzerland, for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. On Monday, the IMF cut its forecasts for global economic growth this year from 3.4 percent in October to 3.3 percent, casting a cloud over the opening of the event, which organisers had hoped would focus on “ stakeholder capitalism, ” the notion that companies have a wider purpose beyond mere profit-making and delivering returns to shareholders.
On the agenda were a wide range of issues, from the rise of totalitarianism to the future of work to the artificial intelligence arms race between the United States and China. But by far the biggest topic of the week was the growing climate crisis that, on the first day of the event, was at the centre of a dramatic showdown between US President Donald Trump and Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, who reprimanded world leaders again at Davos this year for doing little to curb climate change.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres delivered a stark warning later in the week. “ Humankind has declared a war on nature and nature is striking back in a very violent way, ” he said, adding that humanity was “ doomed ” unless “ big emitters ” take action.
Humankind has declared a war on nature and nature is striking back in a very violent way.
The topic was certainly the principal reason why many more business leaders from the fashion world, including top managers like Gucci’ s Marco Bizzarri, Ralph Lauren’ s Patrice Louvet and Nadja Swarovski, came to Davos this year, as both consumers and government regulators ask increasingly urgent questions about fashion’ s role in the climate crisis and chief executives awaken to the need to take action on the issue to diffuse mounting criticism and better connect with shoppers.
Back in November, Bizzarri issued an open invitation to chief executives across industries to join Gucci in its pledge to go carbon neutral by reducing its emissions and paying millions of dollars annually to offset those emissions that it could not eliminate from its supply chain. And this week, the Gucci chief came to Davos to appear on panels like “ Business Case for Safeguarding Nature ” and push his “ CEO Carbon Neutral Challenge, ” which was accepted by software company SAP, resulting in plenty of media-friendly pictures of Bizzarri and SAP co-Chief Executive Jennifer Morgan.
Gucci’ s parent company Kering has made sustainability a key focus and, at the request of French President Emmanuel Macron, Kering Chief Executive François-Henri Pinault has spearheaded a “ Fashion Pact ” to reduce the negative environmental impact of what is one of the world’ s largest and most heavily polluting industries. ( Hermès, Chanel, Prada and others have since joined the pact, though LVMH, the world’ s largest luxury group, has been relatively quiet on the matter and has not joined the Pinault-initiated pact).
Ralph Lauren’ s Louvet also participated in several small and large roundtable discussions and bilateral talks in Davos, with a focus on sustainability and gender inclusion.
Getting senior fashion executives and sustainability advocates present in Davos for the first time was an important first step in addressing the fashion industry's role in the climate crisis, even if key players were still missing from the conversations. But the industry still doesn’ t seem ready to face the elephant in the room: the fundamental tension between greater sustainability and a fashion business model that is rooted in overconsumption and obsolescence.
Last year, consumers bought 114 billion items of clothing.
Last year, consumers bought 114 billion items of clothing, or nearly 15 new garments for every person on planet Earth, according to Global Fashion Agenda, an advocacy group. What’ s more, by 2030, global fashion production is set to grow by 81 percent, and new materials innovators like Andras Forgacs of lab-grown leather start-up Modern Meadow, who was also in Davos this week, are simply not progressing fast enough to offset the environmental impact.
On Tuesday, Global Fashion Agenda issued an update to its “ CEO Agenda ” — a set of priorities for executives focused on reducing the industry’ s environmental footprint — and led a roundtable on redesigning growth. The discussion was attended by the likes of Target, Ralph Lauren and PVH, which owns Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. But despite the surge in fashion leaders talking about sustainability and the need to drive real change in the way businesses operate, those open to actually rethinking fashion’ s business model remain few and far between.
As new IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned attendees on Friday as the annual meeting was set to close, certain measures required to tackle the climate crisis will necessarily mean that some industries will be less profitable in the future. According to innovation platform Fashion For Good and Boston Consulting Group, also on hand in Davos, the fashion industry needs to spend more than $ 20 billion annually on sustainable innovation in new materials, processes, technologies, and business models to realise the necessary industry transformation. How quickly the fashion industry grapples with this fundamental mindset shift will be critical to the industry’ s success in reducing its carbon impact.
THE NEWS IN BRIEF
FASHION, BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY
Customers wearing face masks at a luxury mall in Shanghai | Source: Casey Hall
Luxury stocks hit on new China virus fears. $ 15 billion was wiped off the luxury sector's market value on fears the coronavirus outbreak could hurt sales. Chinese shoppers account for 35 percent of global luxury goods sales and 90 percent of last year's growth in the market. Such statistics illustrate the damage that could be done to luxury goods companies if health fears deter Chinese consumers from travelling or going shopping at home.
Balenciaga will return to haute couture. In July, the famed French fashion house will show its first couture collection since founder Cristóbal Balenciaga closed the atelier in 1968. The move underscores Balenciaga’ s ambitions after several years of meteoric growth, driven by Creative Director Demna Gvasalia’ s genius for disruption and meme-able hits. The brand crossed the billion-dollar sales mark last year, more than doubling its size in the course of just three years.
Cos undergoes executive shake-up. The head of H & M group’ s second-biggest brand and two other senior executives are exiting in a challenging market. The brand’ s star has recently faded as newer additions to H & M group’ s stable of brands, like Arket, have begun to attract more attention. The reshuffle at Cos represents some of the biggest leadership changes since the brand was launched in 2007.
Ted Baker's balance sheet blunder worsens. An investigation by Deloitte found the British retailer's stock was overstated by £58 million, more than double its preliminary estimate. It is the latest in a string of setbacks in the last year, including profit warnings, a decision to suspend dividend payments, and management changes after misconduct allegations against Founder Ray Kelvin.
A ban on Vaporfly shoe could boost Nike's bottom line. The controversial shoe is said to give runners an unfair advantage due to high-tech carbon plate and foam sole technology. Debate has raged among athletes and commentators about whether the shoes should be allowed. But Nike is likely to capitalise on the controversy with amateurs hoping for more spring in their step.
Burberry faces Hong Kong slump. The British luxury brand saw sales in Hong Kong halve amid anti-government protests, while sales in Europe and mainland China increased. Hong Kong was a major market for Burberry and had previously accounted for 8 percent of sales. It has not closed any of its stores in the territory yet, but is taking steps to mitigate the impact, for example by reviewing rents.
Hugo Boss sees strong Christmas quarter. Demand at the German label's renovated stores and growth in online retail drove better-than-expected sales. Fourth-quarter sales rose 4 percent to €825 million ( $ 915.34 million), beating average analysts ' forecast of €805 million. The label’ s shares increased by 2.4 percent in premarket trade as a result.
British retail sales drop for fifth month running. Consumer demand in the UK is softening, despite low unemployment and modest inflation. Official data showed sales volumes fell by 0.6 percent from November, defying the median forecast for a rise of 0.5 percent in a Reuters poll of economists. Sales in monthly terms have not risen since July, the longest such run since records began in 1996.
Private equity firm Peninsula invests in Zadig & Voltaire. Current minority partner TA Associates will be exiting its investment in the Parisian label, while Zadig & Voltaire said it would remain majority-owned by its founder Thierry Gillier. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
THE BUSINESS OF BEAUTY
Mac Cosmetics ' display inside the new Nordstrom New York store | Source: Courtesy
Brands are rethinking the standalone store. Mac Cosmetics, which has an entirely new leadership team for the first time since being acquired by Estée Lauder, is giving its retail format an update. The beauty brand will close six New York City stores to put greater reinvestment in remaining locations and focus on “ experiences. ” The move comes as standalone beauty stores face increasing competition from the likes of Sephora, Ulta and Amazon.
Luxury Brand Partners has raised $ 50 million. The incubator to beauty brands such as Oribe Hair Care and Becca has secured an investment from Bookend Capital Partners. The deal is part of Luxury Brand Partners’ plan for increased growth, which will include signing a roster of new brands.
PEOPLE
Jean Paul Gaultier's last show | Source: Getty Images
Jean Paul Gaultier says goodbye to the runway. The designer's Spring/Summer 2020 couture show was his last. Known as the “ enfant terrible ” of French fashion, Gaultier launched his business in 1982 and introduced his couture collection in 1997. In 2014, Gaultier dissolved his ready-to-wear label in order to focus on couture and collaborations, citing the hamster-wheel pace and aesthetic constraints of mass-produced collections.
Dries Van Noten taps former Ports 1961 MD for president. Dries van Noten has appointed Matteo De Rosa as president, effective February 1. De Rosa joins the Puig-owned company from Australian luxury group Kennedy, where he was managing director of fashion and lifestyle and group commercial officer. Prior to Kennedy Luxury Group, he was managing director at fashion label Ports 1961.
Agent Provocateur names CEO and CCO. Michelle Ryan has been appointed chief executive at Agent Provocateur, effective January 20. Ryan joins the company from Kurt Geiger, where she served as buying and supply chain director. The lingerie brand has also promoted Kerry Neill from joint managing director to chief commercial officer, reporting to Ryan in her new role.
MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY
Tencent to step up investment overseas and in smart retail. The Chinese tech giant announced in a rare disclosure that it will also pay more attention to payment platforms. Tencent has already invested in more than 800 companies, including 70 listed companies and over 160 are valued at more than $ 1 billion.
Asos beats sales forecasts. The online retailer's sales growth indicates that it has addressed operational issues after overhauling its warehouse and technology capabilities. The stock was up 11 percent after Asos, which sells fashion aimed at 20-somethings, reported a 20 percent rise in retail sales to £1.075 billion ( $ 1.41 billion).
BoF Professional is your competitive advantage in a fast-changing fashion industry. Missed some BoF Professional exclusive features? Click here to browse the a
Unpacking Tiffany’ s Contentious New Ad Campaign | business |
American Express Customers Continue to Pay for the Privilege |
American Express ( NYSE: AXP) is continuing to build on its stellar 2019. Over the past 12 months, AMEX stock is up over 31%. In the first weeks of 2020, the stock is up almost 7%. The latest earnings report should do nothing to blunt the stock’ s momentum.
On January 24, the company delivered an earnings report that beat analysts’ expectations on the top line and bottom line. The company reported earnings of $ 2.03 per share which beat a Refinitiv forecast of $ 2.01 per share. Revenue was largely in-line with expectations posting a narrow beat of $ 11.365 billion as opposed to the $ 11.36 billion that was forecast.
Adjusted annual profit was up 12% from 2018 at $ 8.30 per share. Looking forward, the company is expecting profits to range between $ 8.85 and $ 9.25 per share. That is tightening the range that analysts polled by Refinitiv have which is for profit between $ 8.49 and $ 9.67 per share. American Express also forecast revenue to grow between 8% -10%.
That last piece of guidance is significant because despite their positive earnings in October, the company’ s stock took a brief tumble due to a cautious growth outlook.
The American Express name appears to retain its cache
The strength of the report was in AMEX’ s net card fees which exceeded estimates by $ 0.03 billion ( $ 1.08 billion vs. $ 1.05 billion). At 17% growth, card fees were the company’ s fastest-growing revenue item in 2019. On the conference call after the earnings report was released, AMEX management projected this trend would continue.
“ These results demonstrate the success of our strategy to generate sustainable, profitable growth across the enterprise over the long term, ” said AMEX CEO Stephen Squeri in a statement. The company added 11.5 million new proprietary cards in 2019. Nearly 70% of these new cardmembers chose the company’ s fee-based products.
document.write ( ' < a style= '' text-decoration: none; font-weight: normal; color: # 696969; '' target= '' blank '' rel= '' nofollow '' href= '' https: //www.ame ' + 'ricanconsumernews.net/scripts/click.aspx? NativeDisplayAdID=472 & ImpressionID=0 & UserID=0 & Placement=PlaceOnArticlePage '' > '); Gold just moved past $ 1,700 an ounce. Stock values are doubling and tripling. Individual investors who aren’ t afraid of the risk are piling in and getting rich. You can try and figure out which companies to buy on your own…
The credit card industry has largely become a case of monkey see, monkey do. It’ s to the point where, for those with credit, the credit card products themselves are commodities. Each card is following a similar playbook to attract customers ( cashback on purchases, frequent flier miles, rewards programs, etc.). But investing in these incentives is a drain on capital. This creates a dynamic in which companies have to wonder if the juice is worth the squeeze. But not having such incentives would put them at a competitive disadvantage.
That’ s where American Express has stood out and continues to stand out. For many years, an American Express was only available as a commercial product. Businesses were content to pay the annual fee because “ membership had its privileges ”. And make no mistake about it, American Express has no plans to move away from their core consumer.
As more competitors like JPMorgan Chase ( NYSE: JPM) have aggressively moved in on the commercial turf, American Express has had to adapt. One way they have done so is to offer the card directly to consumers. This isn’ t new; American Express has been doing this for years. However, the latest earnings report indicates that consumers are still willing to pay that annual fee.
The future of AMEX will depend on how they adapt to digital
American Express has a history of exceeding analysts’ expectations. This report makes it 7 out of 8 quarters the company has delivered earnings that exceeded the consensus estimate. However, the largest threat to the company’ s growth is not really a slowdown in consumer spending, but an increase in consumer expectations regarding technology and in particular security.
“ There are tons of challenges facing card providers these days, ” says Cyndie Martini, chief executive officer at Member Access Processing, the largest aggregator of card services for credit unions in the U.S.
And, according to Martini, foremost among those challenges is the rise of digital payment technology. Fintech companies such as PayPal ( NASDAQ: PYPL) and Square ( NYSE: SQ) are crossing over into areas that are typically reserved for traditional banks. But they are also challenging credit card issuers like AMEX by forcing the companies to make a continual investment in innovative technologies which is a huge investment that ultimately eats into the profits of these companies.
Is AMEX a good buy right now?
American Express looks like a good buy for the foreseeable future. The challenges the company faces are not unique to AMEX. And the company is taking steps to migrate to a digital payment platform.
Plus, the company continues to require high standards for membership. This means that AMEX customers have a higher net worth than other card providers. This makes the stock a bit more recession-proof than others. And if those individuals continue to be willing to pay that annual fee, the company will enjoy a reliable revenue stream no matter which way the economy goes.
7 Gun Stocks to Buy During the Coronavirus Pandemic
Socially conscious investors may want to stop reading. But the fact is that gun stocks were some of the best-performing stocks at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. And they continue their positive momentum. Some of that may be historical. Firearms sales tend to increase during an election year. But of course, this has not started out as a normal election year. In March, the nation was gripped by pictures of long lines outside gun stores in several U.S. states. The website Ammo.com reported that bullet sales increased by 222% in the period from February 23 through March 15 as opposed to the first three weeks in February. And according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation’ s ( FBI) National Instant Criminal Background Check System ( NICS), there was a 73% year-over-year increase in background checks in February. “ The world has never seen anything like this and people want to make sure they're prepared for whatever lies ahead, whether that be food shortages, government shutdown, or worse, '' a spokesperson for Ammo.com said in an emailed statement. `` When everything around you is uncertain, having a supply of ammunition can make our customers feel safer. '' Given the likelihood of increased firearms sales, we’ ve created this presentation that highlights seven gun stocks that you should consider for your portfolio.
View the `` 7 Gun Stocks to Buy During the Coronavirus Pandemic ''.
Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts ' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter: | business |
Why $ 40 Oil Is A Real Possibility | U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are in a position to finish the week sharply lower as well as natural gas futures which pierced the psychological $ 2.00 level earlier in the week, seemingly on its way to the multi-year low of $ 1.60. The catalyst behind the selling pressure is the concern that a virus in China may spread, hurting travel and fuel demand. China is the world & rsquo; s second-largest oil consumer so any slowdown in travel would show up on its demand forecasts. This news is overshadowing OPEC and its allies & rsquo; cuts in supply and an unexpected drop in U.S. weekly inventories. Threat of Coronavirus Spreading The deadly pneumonia-like coronavirus was first identified on December 31 in the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province. It has since spread beyond Wuhan, which has a population of 11 million, to other major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong. Multiple cases of the virus has been confirmed in Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan, while the United States, Taiwan and Singapore have each reported one case Multiple Lockdowns Should Pressure Demand As of Friday, 10 cities were put under lockdown measures with a total of about 33 million people. Transportation services in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, were shut down on January 23 and people were asked to not leave. The airport and train station in the city were also temporarily closed. Other cities under lockdown include Huanggang, Xiantao, Exhou, Qianjiang, Zhijiang, Chibi and Lichuan. The combined population in those cities is approximately 24 million people. Authorities have also canceled Lunar New Year events in Beijing and other places. Airlines and rail operators are offering, refunds on domestic flights and train tickets around the country. The cancelation of transportation and travel opportunities should have an impact on crude oil demand. World Health Organization Calms Traders, but Short-Term Outlook Still Bearish Fear and uncertainty from the spread of the virus could lead traders to further reduce long positions and generate more short positions ahead of the weekend. Furthermore, with more than 30 million people quarantined in China, demand for energy is already dropping and likely to continue to move lower if the problem spreads throughout Southeast Asia. On Thursday, the World Health Organization calmed crude oil traders when it said the coronavirus is not an international emergency yet. This means that traders are primarily concerned about it impact on regional demand in China. If the problem becomes a global emergency and international travel comes to a standstill then look for prices to drop further until they hit a value area where supply meets demand. The current price action and historical chart patterns suggest we haven & rsquo; t reached that area yet, which could be in the low $ 40 area. US Energy Information Administration Weekly Inventories Report Some of the selling pressure on oil was reduced on Thursday after weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA showed that U.S. crude supplies fell by 400,000 barrels for the week ending January 17. Analysts were looking for a drawdown of 100,000 barrels to a 500,000 barrel build. Earlier in the week on Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of 1.6 million barrels. The EIA data also showed a supply build of 1.7 million barrels for gasoline, but distillate stocks declined by 1.2 million barrels. Traders were pricing in an increase in supplies of 3.3 million barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillates. Technical Analysis Weekly March West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Technical AnalysisWeekly Trend indicator The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the downside with the confirmation of the closing price reversal top from the week ending January 10. We said at the time the reversal top was forming that if confirmed, it could lead to the start of a 2 to 3-week correction. The week-ending January 31 is week number three so we should keep an eye out for bottoming action. We & rsquo; re not saying to pick a bottom, we & rsquo; re saying to pay attention to intraday and daily chart patterns that start to indicate the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels. We & rsquo; re in a news-driven, bearish downside momentum market so it doesn & rsquo; t make sense to step in the way of the selling just yet. If there is going to be a bottom on the weekly chart, then it is going to set up on the short-term charts first. The main range is $ 71.83 to $ 45.76. Its retracement zone at $ 58.80 to $ 61.87 is now resistance. It is still controlling the longer-term direction of the market. The short-term range is $ 45.76 to $ 65.40. The market is currently testing its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $ 55.58 to $ 53.26. This is a potential value area so if we & rsquo; re going to see buyers re-emerge then it & rsquo; s likely to occur inside this area. Weekly Trend Indicator Forecast Remember that with the trend up, buyers will be looking for value and support. The short-sellers received a gift with the virus triggering long liquidation. The buyers will also be looking for a gift with the opportunity to re-enter the market at levels not seen since OPEC and its allies agreed to increase their production cuts. Based on this week & rsquo; s price action and the current price at $ 54.51, the direction of the March WTI crude oil futures contract the week-ending January 31 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at $ 55.58. Bearish Scenario A sustained move under $ 55.58 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the short-term 61.8% level at $ 53.26. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level, but if it fails, there could be an acceleration into $ 50.18 to $ 50.08. Bullish Scenario Overcoming and sustaining a move over $ 55.58 will signal the return of buyers. Depending on how aggressive they are, we could see a retracement back to $ 58.80 over the near-term. | business |
Buy the Yen and Gold. Both Will Beat Oil, Sonal Desai Says. | In this final segment of this year’ s
Barron’ s
Roundtable
, our remaining five panelists share and defend 32 promising investments for 2020.
The investment pros spend more than half of their daylong meeting each January proposing stocks, bonds, and funds that they believe will race ahead of the crowd or fall on their faces, and this year was no different. Our
other five participants’ picks
appeared last week.
Weighing in below is Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.
Barron’ s:
Sonal, you have both themes and picks.
Sonal Desai:
The first theme is that we expect volatility to go up, on a combination of four factors. One is valuations. I think Treasuries are a prime example, but clearly equities are a concern, as well. We have the U.S. elections. We have geopolitics. And inflation risk. We are going to get periods of volatility in markets, and periods of risk aversion over the course of the year across all these factors.
My first recommendation would be gold—physical gold—and there are the obvious funds for that. Gold is a good hedge. The
SPDR Gold Shares
exchange-traded fund [ ticker: GLD ]. [ The ETF is up 28% over the past five years through Jan. 3. ]
Next, the Japanese yen is one of the few currencies I like, relative to the U.S. dollar. I don’ t like being long the euro, but I do like being long the yen. It’ s a better risk-aversion currency, than the Swiss franc, certainly better than the euro. I think both the yen and gold are going to be better than oil. [ The dollar is currently at 108 yen. ]
If you’ re worried about geopolitics, if you’ re worried about inflation, if you’ re worried about election noise, gold is a hedge. And the yen tends to rally in periods of risk aversion. It’ s a nice hedge for emerging market positions, and other risk positions in your fixed-income portfolio.
What do you like in emerging markets?
Desai:
Traditional EM funds. One I like is the
Payden Emerging Markets Bond
fund [ PYEWX; advisor class with a $ 5,000 minimum ]. It uses a blended strategy, with 70% hard currency and 30% local currency. [ The fund invests in emerging market sovereign and corporate bonds, and it’ s mostly U.S. dollar-denominated. It gained an annualized 6.2% in the 10 years through Dec. 31. ]
For emerging markets currency investments, you have to go country by country. For example, to fund Indonesia in Asia; I would be looking at low yielders like Korea and Taiwan.
Rupal Bhansali:
What do you mean by hard currency?
Desai:
The U.S. dollar. Emerging market countries can issue bonds in dollars, or they can issue bonds in local currency. And local currency, of course, is more subject to foreign-exchange movements. I am a bit more sanguine about the global growth outlook than most people right now, but it’ s not as if risks don’ t exist. I don’ t think you should invest in EM local currency assets across the board, because each individual country’ s policies vary. I like, for example, the Russian ruble-denominated assets. I would go long ruble-denominated assets. Historically, I have preferred local-market EM. Right now, I would look at more blended strategies.
What about the United Kingdom?
Desai:
Brexit was blown completely out of proportion. The U.K. is still worth investing in. To get exposure to the U.K. equity market, U.S. investors can use the
iShares MSCI United Kingdom
exchange-traded fund [ EWU; the fund invests in large and midsize companies and has returned 4.5%, on average, annually in the past 10 years through Jan. 3 ].
Sonal Desai's Picks
Source: Bloomberg
Read More Roundtable
Read the picks—and pans—from these panelists
Abby Joseph Cohen: Buy L3Harris Stock Because Its Dividend Could Grow Double-Digits
Todd Ahlsten: Deere Is a Titan and Its Stock Is a Bargain
Mario Gabelli: Time to Invest in Stocks That Will Save the World. Here are Two.
Sonal Desai: Buy the Yen and Gold. Both Will Beat Oil
Scott Black: Buy Royal Caribbean Stock Even Though Coronavirus Fears Are Slamming It
Tesla and 25 Other Stock Picks & Pans from the Barron’ s Roundtable
Almost No Chance of a Recession
2019 Midyear Roundtable: Where to Find Value
There definitely will be sand in the gears over the coming months and even years. The U.K. will free trade access to its biggest trading partner, the European Union. But, fundamentally, you’ ll have a better labor market in the U.K., free of EU regulatory constraints. That will make it more attractive for foreign direct investment than most of continental Europe. This is an important factor, which isn’ t in play.
James Anderson:
I’ m glad there is a believer. I would love to see evidence that productivity of the British economy is showing any signs of budging from zero, which is where it’ s been for decades now. When was the last time Britain created a company?
Desai:
I’ m not talking so much about Britain creating its own companies, but about it as a destination for foreign direct investment. If I have to choose between going to France and going to Britain, the lack of free trade between Europe and Britain is unlikely to budge the needle, relative to the ease of the labor market in Britain, relative to France. And I think for a multinational, that has to be an important factor, long term. And there has been so much priced in on the downside that potentially it’ s not indicative of what actually will happen in the U.K.
What about China?
Desai:
I like the
Invesco China Technology
ETF [ CQQQ ], because technology in China is underestimated. There are many opportunities there in the tech space, but it’ s not a six-month play; it’ s a medium- to long-term play. This fund is a way to engage in that. [ The fund is based on the FTSE China Incl A 25% Technology Capped Index, which tracks the performance of the Chinese technology industry. ]
What do you like in the U.S.?
Desai:
With low interest rates and pensioners who need income, it behooves us to pay attention [ to income-generating investments ]. In a high-tax state like California, the
Franklin California Tax-Free Income
fund [ FTFQX ] focuses on income generation. [ The fund, which requires a $ 1,000 minimum investment, had a 7.4% average annual return since its inception in September 2018 through Dec. 31. ]
If you’ re not looking at tax-free, the
Franklin Income
fund [ FKIQX ] is worth considering. It’ s a mix of fixed income and equity and has a 70-year track record. [ The Class A shares, with a $ 1,000 minimum investment, had a 6.1% average annual gain since they were introduced in September 2018 through Dec. 31. ]
Thanks, Sonal.
Write to
Leslie P. Norton at
leslie.norton @ barrons.com | business |
Wuhan coronavirus: Cathay Pacific offers refunds on all mainland China flights until end of February, as Hong Kong’ s tour agents cancel bookings | Cathay Pacific is among the first carriers to allow passengers to change any China travel plans in the face of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. It follows Beijing’ s request late on Thursday to all airlines to offer refunds on flights to and from the mainland. | business |
Airlines Start to Cancel Flights to the Coronavirus-Infected Chinese City of Wuhan | Low-cost carriers Air Asia and Malindo Air have already temporarily canceled all flights to and from the city.
In an attempt to quell the spread of the new deadly coronavirus, Chinese authorities have put the city of Wuhan on lockdown. Now, international airlines are one by one temporarily canceling all flights to and from the Chinese city.
Malaysian-based low-cost carriers Air Asia and Malindo Air are the first airlines to block their regular flights to and from Wuhan.
Up until today, airports around the world have been screening and checking passengers traveling to and from the coronavirus-infected city of Wuhan. Appropriate quarantine questions have also arisen since the outbreak.
[ Travel Advisory ]: AirAsia Temporarily Cancels All Flights to and from # Wuhan; allows change of travel dates for other cities. ( Updated as of 24 January 2020 at 1300hrs GMT+8) https: //t.co/gK4fZNgar6
China has stopped all citizens of Wuhan from leaving the city. Reports that the city's public transport has stopped operating have been shared, and the airport authorities are not allowing any passengers to leave the city.
Now, some international airlines have taken the matter into their own hands and have canceled flights to and from the city.
BREAKING NEWS: This is not a scene from some apocalyptic horror movie, this is a # coronavirus outbreak in China. The SARS like virus has already spread to four countries and infected more than 1700 people. US airports are monitored. Be on alert, stay safe! pic.twitter.com/PIc7NYvsGO
In a travel advisory, Air Asia has blocked all of its flights between Wuhan and Kota Kinabalu, Bangkok, and Phuket until January 28th.
The airline stated `` AirAsia gives its assurance that the safety and well-being of our guests and Allstars is our top priority. AirAsia is complying with advice and regulations from global and local health authorities, including the World Health Organisation. ''
It continued, `` AirAsia’ s guests who are in Wuhan are advised to abide by announcements made by the government and health authorities, and to contact their respective diplomatic missions or embassies in China for assistance. ''
The airline has extended rerouting options to its passengers who wish to change their flights to and from Wuhan.
Officials in Wuhan, China, shut down the airport, trains, buses and subways to stop a coronavirus that's killed 17 people and sickened more than 500https: //t.co/B921YAYPSN pic.twitter.com/CUvDucuIPR
Another Malaysian airline, Malindo Air, has joined Air Asia in stopping its routes to and from the Chinese city. The airline operates flights between Kuala Lumpur International Airport and Wuhan two to three times a week.
The airline stated that `` Passengers who hold a valid booking for travel between Jan 23 and Feb 8 may contact our call center at +60378415388 or walk-in to our ticketing office for further assistance. ''
It continued `` We are also monitoring the current situation in Wuhan very closely and will provide the latest developments to our passengers on our website accordingly. ''
It's most likely just a matter of time until other airlines follow suit, but for now, it looks like all parties are closely monitoring the outbreak situation to minimize its spread.
Arriving in Tokyo's Haneda airport last week, the Japanese border security officials were using temperature radars to surveil arriving passengers and taking those who were showing high temperatures aside. The coronavirus was a lead story in Japanese media. https: //t.co/AKTGSuCbJg
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe at any time.
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe at any time. | tech |
Coronavirus Outbreak Sours Japan on Chinese Tourist Boom | TOKYO — Just as Japan and China have been taking tentative steps toward moving past old animosities, a fast-spreading virus threatens to push them apart.
A deadly coronavirus outbreak in China, which has spawned fears of a pandemic across Asia, is raising concern in Japan that public sentiment could be damaged as Chinese citizens have become an increasingly visible part of daily life.
The alarm over the virus is unlikely to hurt formal government relations. After years of mounting tensions over history and territory, the two largest Asian economies have been drawing closer, with Japan planning a state visit for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, this spring.
But with the start of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday ushering in one of the busiest travel seasons for Chinese tourists, some Japanese say they can not help but regard Chinese visitors warily. It is a view shared in many Asian countries that have experienced an influx of Chinese tourists — and their money — in recent years.
“ I’ m worried about the epidemic spreading here, ” said Naho Imajima, 34, who works at a tobacco shop in the Kabukicho entertainment district in Tokyo, which is popular with Chinese visitors. “ Even people who cough, most of them aren’ t wearing masks. It could just be a cold, but I never know. I get nervous when a foreign tourist passes by and they’ re coughing. ”
Chinese travelers have fueled a tourism boom in Japan, increasing fourfold in the last five years to more than 9.5 million annually, and now representing about a third of all foreign visitors. In addition, more Chinese students are enrolling in Japanese universities, and in some cases they make up a majority in graduate programs.
Many shops and restaurants around Japan now cater to Chinese travelers, posting signs in Chinese and accepting payment systems from China like Alipay or WeChat Pay.
But after two visitors from Wuhan, the epicenter of the new outbreak, were hospitalized in Japan for coronavirus infections over the past week, nerves have been on edge.
This month, a shop owner in Hakone, a popular hot-springs resort town, posted a sign reading, “ Chinese are not allowed to enter the store. ” A photo of it was widely shared on social media in both Japan and China, and some began to wonder if the new coronavirus would amplify an anti-Chinese undercurrent that persists in Japan.
Others applauded the shop owner’ s move, saying that Chinese tourists often exhibited “ bad manners, ” a common theme in online complaints and news reports.
Masanari Iida, a former candidate for public office in Kanagawa Prefecture, argued on Twitter that the owner was acting in “ self-defense. ”
“ I don’ t understand why this is a problem, ” Mr. Iida wrote. “ The store has a right to choose its customers. ”
Fears have spiraled across Asia as China reported that the virus has caused at least 41 deaths and sickened nearly 1,300 people. The Chinese government has put a dozen cities in the central part of the country on a travel lockdown, effectively corralling 35 million residents.
The Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said on Friday that Japan would increase efforts to quarantine visitors who showed symptoms of the coronavirus. The government also recommended that Japanese citizens refrain from visiting Wuhan for “ unnecessary or nonurgent trips. ”
All Nippon Airways canceled all flights to and from Wuhan until Feb. 1. JalPak, a package tour operator owned by Japan Airlines, said that 50 customers had canceled trips to China in the past week because of news of the virus.
At a cabinet meeting, Mr. Abe said he hoped that the public would not “ worry excessively ” and would act calmly, and he called for people to take the same precautions that they would for the common cold, including washing their hands and wearing surgical masks.
With tourism from China such an important segment of the Japanese economy, some business owners said they did not want the coronavirus to affect views of customers from China.
“ Seeing the news, we worry about the disease a little, but I can not say ‘ please don’ t come,’ ” said Setsuko Yoshizawa, 70, the owner of a shop in the Tokyo district of Asakusa, the site of a temple that is often mobbed with Chinese tourists. “ We can not survive without customers visiting us. I welcome Chinese visitors. ”
Japanese public sentiment about China has improved since the lows seen when the two countries were locked in an intense territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea, but it is still not terribly high.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
According to an annual survey by Japan’ s central cabinet office, just over 5 percent of those polled in 2014 said they felt “ an affinity with China. ” Last year, the figure was about 23 percent.
Komaki Lee, a Chinese-born naturalized Japanese citizen who has twice run unsuccessfully for public office, said he had often experienced discrimination because of his Chinese heritage.
When he was a candidate four years ago and again last year, he said, people defaced his campaign posters with the words “ Go home! ” or trolled him with similar sentiments online or in person.
“ Now it’ s the season for a lot of Chinese tourists to visit Japan, and there is this pandemic happening, ” Mr. Lee said. “ So I think that Japanese people will try to avoid Chinese people more, and I think that’ s when discrimination might worsen. ”
Still, the more hostile strains of anti-Chinese expression in Japan are met with pushback. When Tsuyoshi Iida tried to run for office in Kanagawa last year, his party declined to endorse him because its leaders said he had repeatedly posted hate speech online directed at Chinese and Koreans.
This month, the University of Tokyo fired an associate professor of artificial intelligence, Shohei Ohsawa, who made anti-Chinese comments on Twitter, including saying that he would never hire Chinese students at a company for which he was doing research.
Japanese attitudes about China may be shaped more by criticism of the Chinese government than its people, said Atsushi Kondo, a professor of immigration policy studies at Meijo University in Nagoya.
“ More people question human rights and democracy over the Chinese government’ s policy against the Uighurs or Hong Kong, ” said Mr. Kondo, referring to the Chinese government’ s detention of Muslim ethnic minorities in internment camps and its repression of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong.
“ There might be some cases where some people experience trouble over the manners of tourists and have bad feelings, ” Mr. Kondo added. “ But I don’ t think anti-Chinese sentiment is growing in general. ”
Eimi Yamamitsu, Makiko Inoue and Hisako Ueno contributed reporting.
| business |
Panic and Criticism Spread on Chinese Social Media Over Coronavirus | HONG KONG — While China’ s state-run media has urged calm and praised the official response to the coronavirus outbreak, a different story is playing out across the country’ s tightly controlled social media networks.
In the digital world, China’ s citizens are expressing panic and frustration. They are overcoming a lack of reporting in the official media by sharing their own videos and information — sometimes inaccurately.
Some are even evading censors, who commonly stifle criticism of the government, to register complaints about how officials have handled the crisis. They have criticized officials for failing to contain the initial outbreak in Wuhan, the capital of the central province of Hubei; for limiting residents to overcrowded facilities in the region; and for not visiting the affected areas.
“ Let’ s not interrupt the leaders while they listen to songs and go abroad for interviews, ” one commenter wrote sarcastically.
Though some barbs have slipped through, the censors are still scrubbing material critical of the government, or information deemed alarming. It has detained at least eight people for spreading what the government has called “ rumors. ”
But residents are still using social networks and messaging platforms to offer on-the-ground accounts of the crisis that are difficult to find elsewhere.
Users have shared experiences of waiting in lines at hospitals for hours, shuttling sick loved ones from hospital to hospital, only to be sent home without being tested for the coronavirus. Some videos, like one taken on an unknown date at Wuhan No. 7 Hospital, have made their way from China’ s closed-off internet onto networks like Twitter.
Several hospitals in affected cities have sent out pleas for donations online, saying they were running short of surgical masks, gloves and other supplies. Some health workers spoke of the challenge of getting to hospitals in cities where public transportation has been shut down and taxi services suspended.
Videos circulating in chat groups and social networks show patients in Wuhan being loaded into an ambulance by workers wearing full-body protective suits outside a primary school, or transported in a plastic tube in Huizhou, a city in the southeastern province of Guangdong. Several videos have emerged of a patient being wheeled through an airport in a sealed-off cage.
The videos often lack crucial identifying information, including when they were filmed, but many have spread rapidly in recent days among Chinese internet users in the absence of more official information. The state-run media has largely played down the crisis, focusing instead on the encouragement of government officials and the heroism of medical workers. Only a few news outlets have reported critically on the handling of the outbreak by the health care system and the government.
Updated June 30, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “ comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort ” and requires “ balancing benefits versus possible adverse events. ” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “ In my personal experience, ” he says, “ heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask. ” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’ t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’ s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
In the vacuum, misinformation has flourished. One article claimed to cite a health expert as recommending that people counter the virus by rinsing their mouths with salt water, but the expert never said it and the tactic is ineffective. Another widely read but completely false post claimed that setting off fireworks would sterilize germs in the air.
China’ s National Health Commission even went so far as to debunk popular reports saying that drinking a traditional Chinese medicine herb known as indigowoad root, mixed with smoked vinegar, could prevent infection by the coronavirus.
Still, the digital networks have proven useful in conveying the human toll of the virus.
“ Save my life, doctor, I have the fever too, ” a woman in a mask wailed in a widely circulated video, as hospital workers in protective suits walked in and out of what appeared to be a crowded waiting room.
Tiffany May and Elaine Yu contributed reporting.
| business |
China expands quarantine to 12 cities and 35 million residents — Quartz | On Friday ( Jan. 24), the Chinese government took the dramatic step to expand its travel ban to prevent the spread of a novel coronavirus that likely originated in a live animal market in the city of Wuhan. The quarantine now encompasses 12 cities, impacting 35 million residents, thought to be the largest-ever intervention of its kind.
Even with that unprecedented action, it’ s likely too late for the quarantine to have its intended effect, experts contend. “ Three weeks ago they should have started screening people coming in and out of Wuhan, ” says Nischay Mishra, a virologist a the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. “ They could have contained it. ”
But once a quarantine area expands to whole cities, it is much less effective, says Leila Barraza, an assistant professor of public health at the University of Arizona.
In past outbreaks like swine flu and HIV, banning travel to or from an area with a high density of infections has often not reduced the number of people infected. Instead, quarantines can serve to hinder aid, resources, and supplies to the most affected areas—a consideration that likely delayed the decision to implement initial travel ban on 20 million people in Wuhan and four surrounding cities, announced on Jan. 23.
“ If it’ s a decision to quarantine millions of people, you have to consider if there is food to supply all those people, if there are healthcare resources, things like that, ” Barazza says. “ Trying to reopen everything [ after a quarantine ] can take a while. ” Without a picture of resources within the quarantined area, the impact of the expanded quarantine on residents is unclear. “ In most cases, though, ” Barazza says, “ there must be a lot of preparation for healthy and non-healthy individuals if they must stay within a certain area. ”
Despite the benefit of hindsight, it’ s not clear that implementing a travel ban earlier would have been better. Leaders are in a difficult position, Barraza says, because they are trying to protect people without understanding all the information about the disease. In the early stages of an outbreak, lab technicians and epidemiologists work to understand the disease, while public health officials and other government employees must figure out how to contain the infectious agent.
They’ re also trying to minimize damage to the public’ s trust. “ If you’ re screening people, shutting everything down, closing schools, and taking extreme measures, but then nothing happens, the next time around people aren’ t as trusting and as willing to comply, ” says Barraza. And every day of a quarantine is a huge suck on an area’ s economic activity.
Whether or not the travel ban succeeds in limiting the spread of the virus, local governments can pull several other levers. Airport screening, experts agree, can be a good precautionary measure—although they generally don’ t do much to identify people with the disease, nor prevent its spread. Governments can also limit people’ s contact with one another, as the Chinese government has done by shutting down Wuhan’ s public transportation system, markets, and large-scale social events planned in celebration of the Lunar New Year.
But the success of each of those interventions depends on how the new coronavirus is spread and the severity of its symptoms. Which is why the most effective tool at a government’ s disposal is sharing information with its citizens ( pdf). Clear, top-down, frequently updated information about an outbreak that details things like how many people it’ s affected, how it’ s likely spread, and what people can do to protect themselves can cut down on misinformation and panic.
In past outbreaks, the Chinese government hasn’ t shared enough information with its citizens to prevent widespread panic. This one, though better than in the past, also threatens to tip into a frenzy, largely driven by WeChat.
Whether the actions the Chinese and other governments are taking now will be enough to contain the virus is anyone’ s guess. As of Friday, about 900 people had been diagnosed with the virus ( two in the US), and 26 people had died.
“ If I was an official [ in Wuhan ], I would be educating people on what’ s happening, encouraging people to talk to their healthcare providers, to stay home if sick, and do what we’ ve done really well in public health, which is contact tracing [ working backwards to identify who infected people might have come into contact with ], ” Barraza says. | tech |
Research Underway to Address Threat of Novel Coronavirus That Recently Emerged in China | Colorized transmission electron micrograph of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome virus particles ( blue) found near the periphery of an infected VERO E6 cell ( yellow). Image captured and color-enhanced at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility in Fort Detrick, Maryland. Credit: NIAID
The new cluster of viral pneumonia cases originating in Wuhan, China, marks the third time in 20 years that a member of the large family of coronaviruses ( CoVs) has jumped from animals to humans and sparked an outbreak. In a new JAMA Viewpoint essay, Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., director of the NIH’ s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases ( NIAID), looks back at two earlier novel CoV outbreaks that initially caused global havoc and describes steps needed to contain the current one.
Dr. Fauci and his co-authors, Hilary D. Marston, M.D., M.P.H., of NIAID, and Catharine I. Paules, M.D., of Penn State University College of Medicine, note that human CoVs historically have been regarded as relatively benign causes of the common cold. In 2002, however, a novel, highly pathogenic CoV emerged in China that caused 8,098 recorded cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), including 774 deaths, and cost the global economy billions of dollars. Classic public health measures brought the outbreak to an end.
“ The emergence of yet another outbreak of human disease caused by a pathogen from a viral family formerly thought to be relatively benign underscores the perpetual challenge of emerging infectious diseases and the importance of sustained preparedness. ”
Another CoV jumped from animals to humans in 2012 to cause of Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS). Unlike SARS-CoV, which has not caused additional human cases since being eliminated within several months of the initial outbreak, MERS-CoV continues to smolder due to sporadic transmission from camels—the virus’ s intermediate host—to people, and limited chains of person-to-person transmission.
The latest CoV to emerge is the 2019 novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV), recognized by Chinese authorities in Wuhan on December 31, 2019. It has spread beyond Wuhan to other Chinese cities and to multiple countries, including at least one confirmed case in the United States. The Viewpoint authors write, “ While the trajectory of this outbreak is impossible to predict, effective response requires prompt action from the standpoint of classic public health strategies to the timely development and implementation of effective countermeasures. ”
Current studies at NIAID-funded institutions and by scientists in NIAID laboratories include efforts that build on previous work on SARS- and MERS-CoVs. For example, researchers are developing diagnostic tests to rapidly detect 2019-nCoV infection and exploring the use of broad-spectrum anti-viral drugs to treat 2019-nCoVs, the authors note. NIAID researchers also are adapting approaches used with investigational SARS and MERS vaccines to jumpstart candidate vaccine development for 2019-nCoV. Advances in technology since the SARS outbreak have greatly compressed the vaccine development timeline, the authors write. They indicate that a candidate vaccine for 2019-nCoV could be ready for early-stage human testing in as little as three months as compared to 20 months for early-stage development of an investigational SARS vaccine.
The authors conclude that, “ the emergence of yet another outbreak of human disease caused by a pathogen from a viral family formerly thought to be relatively benign underscores the perpetual challenge of emerging infectious diseases and the importance of sustained preparedness. ”
Reference: “ Coronavirus Infections—More Than Just the Common Cold ” by Catharine I. Paules, MD; Hilary D. Marston, MD, MPH and Anthony S. Fauci, MD, 23 January 2020, Journal of the American Medical Association. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.0757 | tech |
UK tests 14 people for Chinese coronavirus | 14 people in the UK have been tested for the Chinese coronavirus, according to Public Health England ( PHE).
In Scotland, five people have been tested and an incident team has been set up to deal with the health threat. A Welsh resident was also tested for the virus but the results cleared them. In Belfast, one man was treated for coronavirus symptoms and all the patients had been to Wuhan in China, where the outbreak began.
Professor Paul Cosford, Medicial Director at Public Health England, said: “ These are early days yet with this virus. The vast majority of people who are infected do seem to be getting better.
`` The people who have done particularly badly, and sadly died, they seem to be people who have other conditions that might make them more likely to suffer badly with this virus. ”
The outbreak began on 12 December, and has been traced to a Wuhan market that sold meat and animals. The disease is thought to come from animal products. Currently known as 2019-nCoV, the virus is understood to be a new strain of coronavirus not previously identified in humans. | tech |
Remy Cointreau shares slump after sales drop, coronavirus concern | The French-based maker of Remy Martin cognac and Cointreau liquor posted a worse than expected 11.3% fall in like for like third-quarter sales and suspended its outlook guidance as newly installed chief Eric Vallat takes stock of its prospects.
Its shares slumped as much as 10%, on track for their biggest daily loss in more than a decade and hitting their lowest in nearly a year.
The company told investors they would have to wait until June 4, when it releases full-year earnings, to get an update on the group's strategy.
`` The potential impact of the coronavirus, if any, will be significant for our business because we are exposed to China, '' finance chief Luca Marotta told analysts on a call. `` We do not have a quantified scenario but clearly we are concerned as China is a major growth engine. ''
Group sales reached 290.2 million euros ( $ 322 million) in the three months to Dec. 31, against an average forecast for a 6 percent decline in a company-compiled poll of 16 analysts.
Cognac sales - which make 72% of the group total - fell 7.6%, against expectations for a 2.3% decline.
Demand for cognac in Hong Kong was impacted by protests in the region, while slow stock replenishment in the United States, and changes in distribution contracts in Europe, also weighed.
These negative factors more than offset a robust performance in mainland China, where cognac sales have been growing at a double-digit rate in volume and value.
In China, the Lunar New Year, a crucial moment for the drinks industry in that country, starts on Jan. 25. This year's event takes place amid rising concern about the coronavirus outbreak in the country, which could hurt sales of high-end brands exposed to China.
CITIES IN LOCKDOWN
`` The coronavirus outbreak has so far been more limited and less fatal than 2003’ s SARS epidemic, '' analysts at Citigroup said in a note. `` However, coming just ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations, and with some Chinese cities already in lockdown, the potential for the crisis to impact European beverage organic sales growth and earnings trajectories in the months ahead is very real. ''
China, where Remy Cointreau makes an estimated 20% of its profits, is a key market for Remy, along with the United States.
`` I do not think there will be any impact of the coronavirus for the Chinese New year in terms of shipments because it is tomorrow, '' Marotta said. `` But if there will be an impact on on-trade, this will translate into slower replenishment from our distributors and a potential slowdown in coming months. ''
Richemont's Vallat in December took over as CEO from Valerie Chapoulaud-Floquet, architect of Remy's push towards higher-priced spirits to boost margins.
Remy shares have more than doubled since Chapoulaud-Floquet's appointment in September 2014 with a strategy focused on selling spirits priced at $ 50 or more a bottle. The strategy had also benefited from a rebound in Chinese demand.
The group said it had decided to hold off on previously provided annual and mid-term goals, but was nevertheless confirming `` the pertinence of its value strategy ''. It said the publication of annual results on June 4 would be the occasion to provide a new strategic roadmap.
Marotta however acknowledged the group was holding off on previous guidance for a flat operating profit for the current year because it lacked visibility on the fourth quarter, citing slower than expected cognac stock replenishment in the United States, the Hong Kong situation and the coronavirus risk.
By Dominique Vidalon | business |
Speculators Are Dragging Down Natural Gas | 1. China and India drive oil demand- The story of oil demand growth is really a story about Chin and India. Together, they account for more than half of global demand growth. - China & rsquo; s oil consumption is expected to grow by 440,000 bpd this year, slower than the 615,000 bpd from last year, according to IEA data that also includes petroleum products. - India has undershot forecasts in the last few years. Demand grew by 155,000 bpd in 2019 and is expected to grow by 170,000 bpd this year. - Total non-OECD demand growth is estimated at 920,000 bpd this year, which will account for the lion & rsquo; s share of the 1.2-mb/d of total global demand growth. 2. Coronavirus drags down commodity prices- Global supply outages are no longer affecting commodity prices. & ldquo; Concerns about demand have definitely gained the upper hand, and are being fed by the further spread of the coronavirus in China, where the number of those infected and deaths continues to rise, & rdquo; Commerzbank wrote in a note. - Beijing has put Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, on lock down. & ldquo; Significantly less oil than usual may well be consumed during the upcoming week of New Year & rsquo; s Festival celebrations in China. This is a period of particularly high demand because normally many Chinese travel during the holiday week, & rdquo; Commerzbank said. & ldquo; Consequently, the oversupply that is already in place on the oil market risks becoming even bigger. & rdquo; - Goldman Sachs said that the outbreak could drag oil prices down by $ 3 per barrel. - & ldquo; The oil products not needed in China could be exported, thereby increasing the already plentiful supply of gasoline and diesel on the global market, & rdquo; Commerzbank added. 3. Natural gas dragged down by speculators- Henry Hub prices fell below $ 2/MMBtu, creating a financial disaster for shale gas drillers. - Prices are at their lowest level in roughly four years, & ldquo; on the back of falling power generation demand and warmer-than- average temperatures across almost all of the Lower-48 States, & rdquo; JBC Energy wrote in a report. - However, the firm said that strong supply and weak demand only explain part of the problem. - & ldquo; The amount of short speculative positions has been rising strongly since December, vastly outpacing the growth in long positions, in turn exerting additional pressure on HH futures & rsquo; prices as speculators pile in on an even more disappointing fundamentals picture than many had previously forecast, & rdquo; JBC said. - & ldquo; The key takeaway from the previous 2015-16 slump being now, that HH prices can continue to fall for a while even after net speculative length takes a turn for the better. & rdquo; 4. Wheat prices on the rise- Wheat prices rose this week to their highest level since August 2018. - The price increase is the result of concerns about supply. Russia has also been mulling restrictions on grain exports, which would put further supply pressure on the global market. Russia is the world & rsquo; s largest exporter of wheat. - & ldquo; Now there is also a risk that wheat from France, the EU & rsquo; s largest wheat exporter, will be in short supply. This is due to the ongoing strike by French railway workers in protest at the pension reform plans of President Macron, & rdquo; Commerzbank said in a note. Grain shipments could come to a standstill. - & ldquo; The French grains industry is warning of serious consequences if the strike were to continue for any length of time, claiming that 450,000 tons of grain are currently stuck at the terminals, & rdquo; Commerzbank added. & ldquo; Alternative modes of transport, such as trucks, would incur extra costs of & euro; 4-6 per ton. & rdquo; 5. Oil majors can & rsquo; t afford their shareholder payouts- Since 2010, the world & rsquo; s five largest oil majors have had to borrow heavily and also sell off assets in order to afford their hefty payouts to shareholders. - Over the past decade, the five majors have sent $ 536 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks, but they only generated $ 329 billion in free cash flow over that timeframe, according to IEEFA. - That means that they needed to come up with $ 207 billion from elsewhere & ndash; debt and asset sales. - & ldquo; The oil majors are consistently under-performing the market and may believe that shareholders won & rsquo; t notice, as long as they receive generous dividends, & rdquo; said IEEFA director of Tom Sanzillo. & ldquo; As these companies continue to sell off assets and acquire more debt, they reveal a sector in disarray. & rdquo; 6. Plastic bans multiply- The oil industry is betting on robust growth of plastic consumption as a hedge against peak demand in the transportation sector. In fact, & ldquo; non-combusted & rdquo; oil demand, which refers to petrochemical products, is expected to be a much larger source of demand growth than that of industry, road transport and other non-road transport. - The oil industry plans on investing $ 34 billion in petrochemicals over the next five years. - However, the proliferation of plastic bag bans is just one of the potential threats. - China just announced a ban on plastic bags to be phased in by the end of 2020. As Liam Denning put it for Bloomberg Opinion, & ldquo; The resort to policies of interdiction, rather than market-led solutions, is itself a green swan fiat dislocation that is hard to model, & rdquo; Denning wrote. - & ldquo; It doesn & rsquo; t take a global ban on single-use plastics to present a problem to an oil industry that has a made petrochemicals a central part of its growth story and b begun deploying billions already in projects ranging from Saudi Arabian Oil Co. & rsquo; s Asian joint ventures to Exxon Mobil Corp. & rsquo; s shale-linked crackers on the Gulf coast, & rdquo; Denning said. 7. Solar gets cheaper and cheaper- Solar costs are falling so low that solar arrays are becoming the preferred choice, even in markets where the technology is not subsidized. - & ldquo; The training wheels are off, & rdquo; Joe Osha, an equity analyst at JMP Securities, told Bloomberg. & ldquo; Prices have declined enough for both solar and wind that there & rsquo; s a path toward continued deployment in a post-subsidy world. & rdquo; - The cost of wind is down 50 percent since 2010, while solar is down 85 percent. - As a result, solar and wind are now cheaper than coal and natural gas in two-thirds of the entire world, according to BloombergNEF. | business |
Yuan Falters as China Battles Wuhan Virus | By Joanne Chiu
China's currency weakened ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, as the widening spread of the Wuhan coronavirus fanned worries of a deeper economic slowdown in parts of the country.
The yuan traded at 6.9251 against the U.S. dollar in offshore trading midday Friday, a two-week low. Onshore, the currency fell more than 1% this week before Chinese markets closed Jan 24 for a weeklong holiday.
The currency's slide has erased recent gains it chalked up after the U.S. in mid-January removed China from a list of trading partners it considers currency manipulators. The signing of a first-stage trade deal between Beijing and Washington had also helped buoy the yuan.
China this week reported sharp increases in the number of people sickened by a pneumonia-causing virus that was first identified in the central city of Wuhan in December. The government has imposed lockdowns on three major cities, stopping flights and shutting public transportation systems to curb the spread of the coronavirus, which has infected more than 800 people and killed 25.
The country was already contending with slower economic growth prior to the outbreak, and the yuan could come under more pressure if the viral outbreak worsens and crimps consumer spending, travel and business activity, strategists say. Already, many Chinese citizens have canceled or modified their travel plans during what is traditionally the country's busiest travel season.
`` The bad news is that the worst has yet to come, as the number of new infections is still on the rise, '' said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital Ltd.
Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong, said some investors who profited from the yuan's recent climb have closed out their positions ahead of the Lunar New Year break. `` They're wary of an escalation of confirmed cases after the holiday, '' he said.
Mr. Cheung said he expects the yuan to trade around 6.9 to the dollar as the market assesses the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on China's growth outlook and consumption patterns.
Back in 2003, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome -- caused by a similar but more deadly virus -- initially caused China's economic growth to slow, but the economy rebounded quickly later in the year after the disease's spread was brought under control. SARS ended up killing 774 people world-wide and infecting more than 8,000 people, mostly in China.
Last August, Beijing let the yuan weaken beyond 7 per dollar for the first time in more than a decade, during a time of heightened trade tensions. The Chinese currency touched a low of nearly 7.2 in early September and has broadly strengthened since. The country last week reported GDP growth of 6.1% for 2019, its slowest growth rate in decades but within a range it earlier forecast.
Write to Joanne Chiu at joanne.chiu @ wsj.com
| business |
FTSE 100 powers through as WHO tempers China virus fears | The FTSE 100 ended a four-day losing streak to rise 1%, but worries over the spread of the virus have spoiled risk appetite in the past few days and dragged the index to its worst weekly performance in nearly two months.
The FTSE 250 also firmed 1%, getting a further boost as early readings of the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers ' Index ( PMI) showed Britain's vast services sector returned to growth in January for the first time since August.
A standout loser across the board was Finablr, which plummeted 27% to a fresh life low after it disclosed its majority owner had pledged over half the company's stock as security against certain debts it incurred.
Global headlines were dominated by the new coronavirus which has killed 26 people and infected more than 800 so far.
The U.S. confirmed a second case of the virus in the country on Friday.
While the WHO termed the outbreak `` an emergency in China '', it refrained from declaring it an epidemic of international concern.
FXTM market analyst Han Tan suggested dealers were also taking heart from China's efforts to lock down the epicentre of the outbreak, potentially limiting its spread and impact.
China has suspended public transport in 10 cities and a media report suggested that a hospital to treat infected people will be constructed by as soon as Monday.
`` The virus itself is not the issue from an economic perspective; instead, it is the self-perpetuating negative feedback loop on economic activity that it creates, '' OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley said.
Car retailer Auto Trader led the FTSE 100 leaderboard, rising 3.4% to 595.6 pence after Morgan Stanley lifted the price target to 650 pence from 560 pence.
Lagging the blue-chips was Just Eat, which gave up 2% after Britain's competition watchdog said it would investigate Takeaway's takeover of the food delivery company.
UAE-focused NMC Health lost 4.1% after Emirates NBD Bank sold a stake, just weeks after the healthcare company was criticised by U.S. short-seller Muddy Waters.
Marston's fell 5.3% underperformed midcaps as investors overlooked a growth in sales over the two-week Christmas holiday period and focused on the pub operator's warning of extra costs due to a higher-than-expected rise in minimum wages.
( Reporting by Shashwat Awasthi and Muvija M in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr, Anil D'Silva and Nick Macfie)
By Shashwat Awasthi and Muvija M | business |
Today's Logistics Report: Cutting Rail Jobs; Warehouse Demand Peaks; Screening China's Ports | By Paul Page
Sign up: With one click, get this newsletter delivered to your inbox.
Union Pacific Corp. is banking on shrinking its way back to profit growth. The freight railroad says it will cut nearly 3,000 jobs in 2020, the WSJ's Paul Ziobro reports, adding to the rapid decline of rail payrolls over the past year as shipping volumes have fallen and carriers have implemented the lean operating strategy known as precision railroading. Union Pacific is transforming its operations, and the railroad now plans to cut its workforce by around 8% this year after reductions of 11% in 2019. Financial returns so far are mixed. Union Pacific's fourth-quarter net profit fell 10% as operating revenues tumbled 9%. Freight volumes fell a bit more, however, and a key measure of pricing power increased 1.4%. Union Pacific's trains also moved faster and spent less time at terminals, giving the railroad hope that financial gains will come along soon.
SUPPLY CHAIN STRATEGIES
A new report suggests the boom in North American warehousing may have peaked. Cushman & Wakefield PLC projects that warehouse construction is likely to outstrip demand over this year and next, the WSJ's Micah Maidenberg writes, suggesting a market long marked by tight capacity and rising rental rates may be shifting to favor tenants. The real-estate firm expects builders to deliver 301 million square feet of distribution space in 2020, and another 272 million square feet next year. Both figures are well ahead of demand projections, capping a turnaround in the market that has been boosted by surging e-commerce sales and a push by retailers to find new warehousing sites. Softer leasing rates would bring some relief to companies that have been stung by the high costs of digital strategies. Vacancy rates remain very low, however, and capacity for new sites near population centers is still hard to find.
ECONOMY & TRADE
The impact of China's rapidly-spreading coronavirus is starting to touch commercial trade. Authorities are holding back some ships from calling at the city of Wuhan, the WSJ Logistics Report's Costas Paris writes, extending efforts to quarantine the region into the shipping sector. The moves at the major trading center on the Yangtze River add to the concerns that the frightening respiratory infection will begin to affect China's economy. Beijing has expanded the lockdown on travel in the central Chinese city of Wuhan to other nearby cities, a crushing event for Chinese citizens just at the start of the Lunar New Year, when millions of people travel home for the country's most important family holiday. The efforts at the river ports have so far kept some cargo ships idling short of Wuhan, and one official says container ships are taking health precautions as they enter the area.
QUOTABLE
IN OTHER NEWS
The International Monetary Fund estimates Europe's economy slowed to a six-year low in 2019 as the manufacturing sector contracted. ( WSJ)
Procter & Gamble's quarterly sales and profits rose as the household goods supplier convinced people to upgrade to premium products. ( WSJ)
Amazon, DHL Express and other companies joined a coalition working to advance the use of electric vehicles in delivery fleets. ( MarketWatch)
Houston-based helicopter companies Era Group Inc. and Bristow Group are in advanced deal talks. ( WSJ)
The price of rhodium has soared 65% this year under growing demand for the metal that strips pollutants out of automotive exhaust fumes. ( WSJ)
The prolonged grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX could stymie growth for U.S. airlines that operate the plane well into this year. ( WSJ)
Xerox Holdings is stepping up efforts to complete a $ 33 billion unsolicited takeover bid for HP. ( WSJ)
Mining giant BHP Group says poor air quality from Australia's bushfires is hurting its coal output in the country. ( Reuters)
FedEx is warning of a digital scam in which people receive text messages purporting to be delivery notices. ( CNN)
Operators of tankers with scrubber emissions systems are earning a large premium in charter rates over other crude carriers. ( Lloyd's List)
Amazon appears to be working on plans to place its first two distribution centers in Louisiana. ( Business Report)
Freighter operators Atlas Air and Cargolux both expect the airfreight market to remain soft through at least the first half of this year. ( The Laodstar)
Paris authorities are developing `` logistics hotels '' that blend e-commerce delivery sites with other mixed-use development. ( Wired) | business |
Canadian dollar slips as oil prices fall on China virus scare | The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell more than 2% on Friday and headed for a steep weekly decline over concerns that the coronavirus will spread farther in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, curbing travel and oil demand.
At 3 p.m. EST ( 2000 GMT), the Canadian dollar < CAD=D3 > was trading down about 0.12% at 1.3141 to the greenback, or 76.10 U.S. cents.
On Wednesday, the loonie came under pressure after the Bank of Canada ( BoC) left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75% as expected but said a future cut was possible should a recent slowdown in domestic growth persist.
`` We 've seen before how BoC meetings can result in lengthy trends for USD/CAD, lasting at least until the next BoC meeting. I think we may well have one of those scenarios now as well, so I wouldn’ t necessarily fade the move at this point, '' Marshall Gittler, chief strategist at ACLS Global, said in a note.
The loonie has fallen about 1% since the start of the year after climbing 5% in 2019, when it was the top-performing G10 currency.
Canadian retail sales were up 0.9% in November from October at C $ 51.48 billion ( $ 39.19 billion), on stronger sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, as well as food and beverage stores, Statistics Canada said on Friday.
`` ( The) rise in retail sales will come as a relief to the Bank of Canada and supports our view that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year, '' said Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.
Canadian government bond prices were higher across the maturity curve, with the two-year price up 6.5 Canadian cents to yield 1.486% and the benchmark 10-year rising 43.2 Canadian cents to yield 1.367%.
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | business |
Coronavirus has struck at the worst time for Chinese tourism — Quartz | Under normal circumstances, the week of the Lunar New Year should be a highlight of the Chinese tourism industry’ s calendar. Every year, in the space of a week, Chinese make around hundreds of millions of trips—boarding flights, visiting family and friends, and making the most of big-ticket domestic tourism sites. Between Jan. and 19, there were nearly 120 million railway trips in preparation for the holiday, according to the transport ministry, a 20% increase compared to last year.
But the growing coronavirus crisis, which is believed to have started in the city of Wuhan, has put a sudden stop to proceedings. Travelers have abandoned plans and been turned away from attractions, as the Chinese government seeks to avoid a repeat of the SARS epidemic of 2002 and 2003 which killed more than 8,000 worldwide. Hundreds of flights out of Wuhan have been canceled, with airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China have been ordered by the country’ s government to cancel flights to and from Wuhan and give prospective passengers full refunds.
For China’ s growing tourism industry, it’ s terrible timing. Last year, according to the Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism, tourism revenue hit 513.9 billion yuan ( $ 78 billion) during the week of the festival, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. More than 40% of tourists visited museums and galleries, while more than one in three attended a “ cultural performance. ”
This year, many of the same attractions are closed or cancelled. Shanghai’ s Disney park, which was so full last Lunar New Year that it had to stop selling tickets, is closing its doors. “ In response to the prevention and control of the disease outbreak and in order to ensure the health and safety of our guests and Cast, Shanghai Disney Resort is temporarily closing Shanghai Disneyland, Disneytown … starting Jan. 25, ” the company announced on its website. “ We will continue to carefully monitor the situation and … announce the reopening date upon confirmation. ” The park had undergone a Year of the Rat-themed makeover for a four-week event closing Feb. 2, with Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse given starring roles.
In Beijing, the iconic Forbidden City will also close to visitors. All over the country, temples have been shuttered and public transport systems suspended.
The depth of the coronavirus crisis—and how long it will last—remain unclear, making it hard to estimate the scale of losses. But the SARS epidemic sets a worrying precedent: In 2003, in the throes of the crisis, China’ s domestic tourism spending contracted after a decade of steep growth, while the valuation of tourism companies including hoteliers and scenic sites dropped by as much as 50% in the space of four months.
More than 15 years later, an equivalent outbreak would have a far greater effect on the country’ s economy, which has shifted heavily toward services including tourism to fuel growth. Tourism revenue has more than quadrupled since 2003, shooting from around $ 90 billion to more than $ 430 billion. | tech |
China coronavirus: 26 dead, while eight cities on lockdown | China’ s deadly coronavirus has claimed 26 lives, authorities have announced. Hubei officials have responded to the crisis by imposing travel bans on eight of its cities, including the province’ s capital of Wuhan, local authorities said. | business |
Toll From Outbreak Climbs in China as Infections Reach Europe and Australia | This briefing has ended. Read about developments in the coronavirus outbreak here.
Fifteen more people have died in the city of Wuhan, the Hubei provincial capital and epicenter of the outbreak, the health authorities in Hubei said.
The new figures, announced early Saturday, represented a nearly 60 percent jump from the previous death toll of 26.
Just three of the 41 deaths reported over all have taken place outside of Wuhan: one in another city in Hubei Province, one in Hebei Province, and one in Heilongjiang, near the Russian border.
The new victims ranged from 55 to 87 years old. Eleven were male, and four female.
Nationwide, more than 400 new cases of the virus were diagnosed, officials said early Saturday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in China to nearly 1,300.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
The authorities on Friday greatly expanded a travel lockdown in central China to include 12 cities near the center of the outbreak, effectively penning in 35 million residents — nearly the population of Canada — in an effort to contain the dangerous coronavirus.
The new travel limits — abruptly decreed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, China’ s busiest travel season — were an extraordinary step that underlined the governing Communist Party’ s deepening fears about the outbreak of a little-understood coronavirus.
Just one day after China restricted travel in and from the center of the outbreak, Wuhan, a city of 11 million and the capital of Hubei Province, and four nearby towns, the government announced plans to suspend public transportation services covering more than half the population of the province.
The rapidly expanding outbreak has overwhelmed the Chinese province’ s hospitals and fueled fears of a global pandemic.
All the deaths reported so far have been in China. Most have been older patients, but included a 36-year-old man.
On Thursday morning, the authorities imposed a travel lockdown in Wuhan, and airlines canceled hundreds of flights to the city, leaving thousands of people stranded.
Later in the day, officials said they would also halt public transportation in the nearby cities of Huanggang, Ezhou, Zhijiang and Chibi, which are together home to more than nine million residents. By Friday, restrictions had been announced in eight other cities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday that a second case of the coronavirus had been confirmed in the United States: a woman in her 60s in Chicago who had recently traveled to Wuhan, China, the center of the outbreak.
The other case, a man in his 30s, was in Washington State.
The unidentified woman returned to Chicago on Jan. 13, officials said. She became ill days later. As of Friday, she was still hospitalized but was doing better. Officials at a news briefing declined to name the hospital.
The C.D.C. told reporters that 63 patients in 22 states were under investigation for the coronavirus; 11 have tested negative.
France became the first country in Europe to report the infections. The Health Ministry reported three confirmed cases — two in Paris and one in Bordeaux. All three people had spent time in China.
Agnès Buzyn, the health minister, told reporters earlier Friday that France reported the first European cases “ because we were very quick in establishing the test and identifying the cases. ”
Australia reported its first confirmed case on Saturday: a man in his 50s visiting from China, who was being treated in a Melbourne hospital. The authorities there said he had been in Wuhan before falling ill, and that he had arrived in Melbourne on Sunday, on a flight from Guangzhou.
American officials have announced expanded screenings for the infection at major airports in the United States. In addition to New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco, airports in Atlanta and Chicago began examining passengers arriving from Wuhan for signs of illness.
On Chinese social media, people across the country expressed mounting mistrust and resentment of the authorities in Wuhan, whom they blamed for mishandling the outbreak.
Some users called for Wuhan leaders to be removed. Others mocked the failure of the Communist Party’ s newspapers to treat the epidemic with front-page urgency. Most of those posts were quickly removed by censors.
On the Twitter-like platform Weibo, Li Haipeng, a former journalist, wrote: “ What is happening in Wuhan is really outrageous. Can it be hollow to this extent, incompetent to this degree? ”
His post was shared more than 41,000 times and received more than 5,000 comments. One commenter wrote, “ I hope the central government can take over before dawn. It’ s almost like anarchy. ”
Another wrote, “ Wuhan’ s party secretary and governor can not soothe the people’ s anger. ”
In another post, a woman whose profile said she worked at a Hubei hospital shared a photo of instant noodles, lamenting that it was the only food she was given after working late on the night before Lunar New Year — traditionally time for a large meal shared with family.
The post was shared more than 30,000 times, and received more than 25,000 comments. “ The Wuhan government is not worthy of such good medical staff, ” one person replied.
Still, at least one person was decidedly complimentary: President Trump, who reached a trade truce with China last week and has sought to cool tensions with the Chinese government. “ China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus, ” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Friday. “ The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. ”
Mr. Trump especially singled out China’ s leader, Xi Jinping: “ In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi! ”
The Lunar New Year is the most important holiday in the traditional Chinese calendar, and celebrations start on the eve, which this year falls on Friday. Chinese were expected to travel home in time to help wrap dumplings or fry sticky rice cakes for all-important reunion dinners with their extended families. At midnight, families around the country usually set off firecrackers and fireworks.
But these celebrations are set to be far more muted this year, particularly in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei Province where the authorities have imposed travel restrictions.
In Wuhan, people waited anxiously on Friday outside Hankou Hospital, one of the medical facilities designated to test for the coronavirus, as their relatives sought treatment inside.
Several said the Lunar New Year would pass without the usual celebrations or vacation travel. They and other residents said that the city was now also confronting food supply problems because so many shops and markets had closed, adding to the hardships caused by the city shutdown.
“ We won’ t have a new year celebration tonight. There’ s no feeling for it, and no food, ” Wu Qiang, a resident in his 50s who was waiting outside the hospital entrance for word about his son, told a New York Times correspondent.
Mr. Wu said he understood the need to close off the city, but added that city authorities should ensure that enough shops and markets were selling fresh food. He said his son had been sneezing, setting off alarm at home.
“ I think he’ s O.K., but now even an ordinary sneeze makes you worry, ” Mr. Wu said. “ You start to think every cough or sneeze might be the virus. ”
Chen Yanming, 47, who said her father might have contracted the coronavirus, said she was melancholic and anxious as the Lunar New Year came. She said her father had suffered a high fever for a few days and was being treated in the hospital.
“ Today should be the Chinese people’ s happiest day, ” she said, “ but this sickness has destroyed that feeling. ”
The official death toll from the mysterious coronavirus increased by more than a half-dozen in 24 hours, to 26, while the number of confirmed cases jumped by more than 200.
The majority of the deaths have occurred in Hubei Province, in central China, but two deaths have been confirmed outside the center of the outbreak.
One patient died in Hebei Province, more than 600 miles north of Wuhan, the authorities announced on Thursday. Another death was confirmed in Heilongjiang, a province near the border with Russia, more than 1,500 miles from Wuhan.
The youngest victim of the outbreak so far has been identified as a 36-year-old man identified only as Li. He died on Thursday after being admitted to the hospital on Jan. 9, the Hubei Health Commission said. He suffered a cardiac arrest less than two hours before he died, officials said.
The disease has now been detected in Australia, Malaysia, Nepal, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, France and the United States.
On Friday, the authorities in Nepal said a student who had returned to the country from China had been confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. He has already been treated and released.
Dr. Anup Bastola, a spokesman for the government-run Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Diseases Hospital, said a 32-year-old doctoral student was admitted to the hospital on Jan. 13 after having some respiratory problems.
Concerned over his symptoms, the doctors sent samples of his blood and sputum for testing. Later, he was found to be infected with the virus that emerged from Wuhan, China.
After spending four days in the hospital, the student was discharged on Jan. 17.
In the aftermath, Nepal’ s Health Ministry has activated health screenings at Tribhuvan International Airport.
Dr. Gauden Galea, the representative of the World Health Organization in Beijing, said in an interview on Friday that while much was uncertain, health officials were preparing for an outbreak that could last for months. He said that eventually thousands of people would most likely be infected, citing models produced by public health experts.
“ My own office is gearing up for a number of months, ” Dr. Galea said. “ We do not expect it to disappear in a number of days. ”
He said much would depend on the patterns of infection over the holiday travel season. He said there was little precedent for the travel restrictions imposed by the Chinese authorities but that public health experts were hopeful that they could help contain the virus, along with efforts to expand screening, promote the use of masks and isolate sick patients.
Still, he acknowledged, health officials were being forced to improvise. “ Part is science and part is hope, ” he said.
Dr. Galea, who visited Wuhan this week before the lockdown, defended how Chinese officials had handled the outbreak, saying they had been transparent in sharing data. He said the Chinese authorities faced a daunting challenge.
“ With the number of cases, ” he said, “ one would expect health systems to be stretched. ”
As Wuhan residents waited in long lines at hospitals to be checked for possible coronavirus infections, some residents complained they were not able to get the treatment they needed.
Xiao Shibing, 51, has had a fever for 15 days and finds it difficult to breathe. When he went to a hospital, he was not tested for the coronavirus, said his daughter, Xiao Hongxia. He was told he had a viral chest infection and was sent home.
Mr. Xiao’ s family has continued to seek treatment, visiting other hospitals, but has been turned away by at least three because of a shortage of beds, his wife, Feng Xiu, said. “ It is like kicking a ball from here to there, ” she said.
Cai Pei, 41, said his wife began coughing and developed a fever three days ago. He wrote on Weibo that hospitals would not admit her, and he had difficulty finding masks and cold medicine in pharmacies.
They still do not know if she is infected with the coronavirus or some more common ailment.
“ Sometimes I can only hide and cry, but I couldn’ t tell her and had to reassure her that it is not the virus, ” Mr. Cai said by phone. “ It is very scary. If it’ s real, we have a child and elderly parents at home. What if we all get sick? ”
Hospitals and medical workers at the center of the outbreak in Wuhan made urgent appeals for supplies, as stocks of surgical masks and other equipment quickly flew off shelves.
“ Shortage of medical supplies, request help!!! ” the Wuhan Children’ s Hospital said on Thursday in a post on Weibo, the Chinese social network.
The hospital asked for donations of surgical masks, disposable garments, protective goggles and gloves.
Several others, including Hubei General Hospital, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and the Central Hospital of Wuhan, posted similar notices.
The central government on Thursday acknowledged the severe strain on resources, and the Ministry of Finance announced an urgent allocation of one billion renminbi, about $ 144 million, for epidemic prevention and control work.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
State news media also carried reports of people volunteering to help ease the strain on health workers. Young doctors at the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University volunteered to take on additional shifts or to take over from colleagues with children, the state broadcaster CCTV reported.
A team of 30 volunteers in Wuhan mobilized to drive doctors to and from hospitals, while others have offered to help the local Red Cross answer phone calls and publicize requests for help from hospitals, according to a report by the China Business Journal.
The American and British governments on Friday urged travelers to avoid the city of Wuhan and the surrounding area amid growing signs that the outbreak of the coronavirus was worsening.
The American Embassy in Beijing advised travelers from the United States to avoid Hubei Province, where Wuhan is the capital. It said the State Department had already ordered nonemergency government personnel to leave the city. It further warned that the Chinese government might prevent travelers from arriving or leaving.
The State Department notice was a Level 4 advisory, the sternest warning the United States government issues regarding travel. Other Level 4 warnings issued by the State Department cover travel to Syria, North Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, Venezuela and Yemen, among other places. The warning is a step up from Washington’ s earlier cautions. Just a day before, the American government had been advising travelers to “ exercise extreme caution ” when traveling to the Wuhan area.
The British government, in a notice dated Thursday, similarly advised against all but essential travel to Wuhan. The warning came a day before the government’ s Cobra committee was to meet in Downing Street to discuss the threat posed by coronavirus to Britain, according to local news reports.
Fourteen people in Britain were tested for the disease, and all came back negative, the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, announced on Friday. But checks on others were continuing.
Some British universities have also warned students considering traveling home to China that they could face quarantine on their return. The University of Chester had warned its Chinese students that if they return to their homeland, they would not be readmitted without a quarantine period, The Guardian reported.
In a statement on Friday, however, a spokeswoman for the university said in an email: “ The University of Chester has a relatively small Chinese student cohort and they are being appropriately supported. All students have been advised they must not interrupt their studies to return to China at this point. ”
Universities UK, which represents 136 universities in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, said in an emailed statement on Friday: “ U.K. universities have been monitoring the coronavirus situation as it unfolds and universities with students in affected areas are working to identify appropriate actions. Universities will continue to follow the latest FCO advice and to monitor the situation, which is evolving rapidly. ”
Shanghai Disneyland, one of the biggest tourist attractions in China, will shut down on Saturday as the Chinese authorities and others look for ways to reduce crowds to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
In a notice on its website on Friday, Shanghai Disney Resort, the arm of the Walt Disney Company that runs Shanghai Disneyland, blamed the outbreak for the shutdown and said it would reopen at an unspecified date.
The shutdown adds to the tourist and cultural attractions closing across China at the beginning of the Lunar New Year holiday, when many families head out of the house to spend quality time together.
The authorities operating the Badaling section of the Great Wall of China, a popular tourist destination north of Beijing, said it would temporarily close beginning on Saturday. Shanghai Huangpu River Cruise, the company that operates boat tours along Shanghai’ s scenic Bund area, said the same.
Shanghai’ s movie theaters will be closed throughout the Lunar New Year holidays, a state media outlet said. Film companies said this week that they would pull new releases planned for the peak film-going period.
A prolonged Shanghai Disneyland shutdown could add to the problems in the region for Disney, the American entertainment giant. Attendance at its Hong Kong Disneyland theme park has been battered by anti-Beijing protests that have swept through Hong Kong’ s streets in recent months, frightening away many tourists from mainland China.
Disney owns a 43 percent stake in Shanghai Disney Resorts, while state-owned Shanghai Shendi Group holds a majority stake.
The closings at a peak spending time could come at a considerable cost to the Chinese economy, though it isn’ t clear how big that toll might be.
The Economist Intelligence Unit projects that the coronavirus could reduce China’ s growth by 0.5 percent to 1 percent, compared with its projected growth rate of 5.9 percent before the outbreak, if the disease worsens on the level of SARS, the outbreak that killed hundreds in 2003.
That hit would be smaller than the blow from SARS. On the other hand, China’ s growth is already slowing, unlike during the SARS outbreak, adding to Beijing’ s problems.
Many infectious disease specialists say that cheap, disposable masks that cover the nose and mouth can help prevent the spread of infections if they are worn properly and used consistently.
But there isn’ t much high-quality scientific evidence on their effectiveness outside health care settings, experts say.
Dr. Julie Vaishampayan, chairwoman of the public health committee for the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said surgical masks are “ the last line of defense. ”
The masks will, however, block most large respiratory droplets from other people’ s sneezes and coughs from entering your mouth and nose, said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease physician at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Coronaviruses are primarily spread through droplets, he said.
Dr. Mark Loeb, an infectious disease specialist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, said a study during an outbreak of the SARS coronavirus found that any type of protection — whether a mask or a respirator — reduced the risk of infections in health care workers by about 85 percent.
“ The most important message was that the risk was lower if they consistently used any mask, ” he said.
But washing hands — frequently and before eating — is universally recommended. Hand sanitizer is effective against respiratory viruses.
China’ s propaganda machine has ramped into overdrive as the authorities fight the spread of the coronavirus, praising the sacrifices of responders and everyday people amid continued criticism online of the government’ s efforts to address the disease.
Mainstream Chinese news outlets have covered the outbreak closely, though censorship prohibits them from taking a critical look, while official news media like CCTV and The People’ s Daily newspaper have played it down. State news media issued herograms to the patriotic Chinese citizens who canceled their trips home to Wuhan and would spend the Lunar New Year holiday alone. It praised doctors heading off to Wuhan.
“ People of Wuhan are making sacrifices, ” Hu Xijin, the editor of The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid controlled by the Communist Party, wrote on Twitter. “ No matter how all of this happened, I want to express my sympathy and salute to them. ”
On what may be the most watched television show on earth, the Spring Festival Gala, the Chinese government on Friday cheered on Wuhan and praised the country’ s leader, Xi Jinping.
Each year, on the eve of the Lunar New Year, the state broadcaster China Central Television shows the gala, a four-hour marathon of speeches, skits and song and dance, all conducted at a stately pace to accommodate a graying audience. Watching the gala while making dumplings — or falling asleep in front of it — is a tradition for many families across the country.
On Friday night’ s broadcast, China’ s propaganda minders addressed the coronavirus outbreak head on. During the first half of the broadcast, six prominent CCTV anchors stood onstage and praised the instructions of Mr. Xi and the Communist Party.
They showed images of doctors and nurses treating patients, of trucks of supplies festooned with banners that said, roughly translated, “ Go, Wuhan! ”
They cited the example of Wang Qiang, the Chinese tennis player who earlier on Friday upset Serena Williams in the Australian Open. “ As long as we’ re not afraid and dare to confront challenges, ” said Hai Xia, a longtime CCTV anchor, “ we will win. ”
Then they declared that the fight against the coronavirus was open, transparent and a testament to the competence of the government. Ms. Hai cited “ the most transparent information disclosure, the strong leadership of the party’ s Central Committee, the efforts of the whole nation. ”
By featuring the response on the gala, the government gave its message a broad platform. The anchors ended their presentation with their own cheer: “ Go, Wuhan! ”
Reporting was contributed by Chris Buckley, Javier Hernández, Vivian Wang, Austin Ramzy, Elaine Yu, Tiffany May, Carlos Tejada, Russell Goldman, Gillian Wong, Paulina Villegas, Steven Lee Myers, Denise Grady, Karen Zraick, Roni Caryn Rabin, Carl Zimmer, Rick Gladstone, Yonette Joseph, Bhadra Sharma, Alexandra Stevenson, Adam Nossiter, Livia Albeck-Ripka and Aurelien Breeden. Research was contributed by Amber Wang, Albee Zhang, Claire Fu, Elsie Chen, Yiwei Wang and Zoe Mou. | business |
China silencia a quienes critican el brote del mortal virus | El desastre del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave ( SRAG, o SARS en inglés) se suponía que arrastraría a China hacia una nueva era de responsabilidad y transparencia. La enfermedad mortal repercutió por todo el mundo hace 17 años gracias a la complicidad del gobierno chino que ocultó su propagación. Cuando la magnitud del problema se hizo evidente, intelectuales, periodistas y otros críticos de China hicieron esfuerzos para avergonzar a Pekín hasta el punto de que tuvo que hablar francamente sobre ese problema.
“ El SRAG ha sido el 11 de septiembre de nuestro país ”, afirmó Xu Zhiyuan en una entrevista con The New York Times en 2003. En ese entonces, Zhiyuan era un joven columnista y crítico acérrimo del manejo gubernamental del SRAG. “ Nos ha obligado a prestarle atención al verdadero significado de la globalización ”.
Hoy, China enfrenta la propagación de otra misteriosa enfermedad, un coronavirus, que hasta el momento ha matado a 17 personas e infectado a más de 570. Y si bien la respuesta de Pekín ha mejorado en varios sentidos, ha sufrido retrocesos en otros. Están censurando la crítica. Están deteniendo a personas por difundir lo que califican como “ rumores ”. Están suprimiendo la información que consideran alarmante.
Aunque los censores gubernamentales están limpiando con ahínco el internet chino, la comunidad en línea del país está registrando su descontento y preocupación por la manera como Pekín ha manejado el nuevo virus, que desde diciembre se ha propagado desde la ciudad de Wuhan a otros países, incluyendo Estados Unidos.
“ Pensé que el SRAG obligaría a que China repensara su modelo de gobernabilidad ”, escribió Xu —quien en la actualidad es el moderador de un programa de entrevistas de video— el 21 de enero en las redes sociales, donde también publicó una captura de pantalla de su cita del 2003 en el Times. “ Fui demasiado ingenuo ”.
China ha mejorado de muchas maneras desde la epidemia del SRAG. Su economía ha crecido ocho veces. Ha construido más rascacielos, metros y líneas de alta velocidad que cualquier otro país. Sus empresas de tecnología están a la par de los gigantes de Silicon Valley. Su burocracia, más receptiva, hace que más personas reciban atención médica, servicios sociales e incluso mejoras en su calidad de vida con, por ejemplo, acceso a nuevos parques.
En lo relacionado al manejo de enfermedades, el sistema de salud pública ha mejorado considerablemente. Wuhan, el epicentro del brote, también aloja uno de los laboratorios de investigación de enfermedades epidémicas más avanzados del mundo.
Estas mejoras han venido con un costo. El gobierno ha endurecido su control sobre internet, los medios y la sociedad civil. Tiene más dinero y mayor habilidad para controlar el flujo de información por todo el país.
Como consecuencia, muchos de los medios de comunicación, grupos de defensa, activistas y otras personas que obligaron al gobierno a rendir cuentas en el 2003, han sido silenciados o marginados.
“ El sistema no es exitoso en tanto ha destruido a personas con integridad, instituciones con credibilidad y a una sociedad capaz de narrar sus propias historias ” dijo Xu en redes sociales. “ Lo que queda es un poder arrogante, un montón de información desordenada y muchos individuos frágiles, aislados y molestos ”.
Incluso mientras el nuevo virus se propagaba en Wuhan, el gobierno se dio a la tarea de guardar las apariencias.
El primer caso fue reportado el 8 de diciembre. Mientras la enfermedad se propagaba, funcionarios de Wuhan insistían en que era tratable y que estaba controlada. La policía interrogó a ocho personas que publicaron información sobre el virus en las redes sociales, afirmando que habían difundido “ rumores ”.
El 18 de enero, dos días antes de que Wuhan le informara al planeta sobre la gravedad del brote, la ciudad organizó un banquete comunitario al que asistieron más de 40.000 familias, para lograr así que la localidad pudiera competir por el récord mundial de más platos servidos en un evento. El día en que Wuhan dio la noticia al mundo, también anunció que estaba repartiendo 200.000 entradas gratis a los residentes para las actividades festivas durante las vacaciones del Año Nuevo lunar, las cuales comienzan el 25 de enero.
El gobierno central respaldó a los funcionarios de Wuhan. Wang Guangfa, un importante experto gubernamental en enfermedades respiratorias, le dijo el 10 de enero al canal del estado Televisión Central de China, que la neumonía de Wuhan estaba “ bajo control ” y que era principalmente una “ condición leve ”. Once días más tarde, Wang le confirmó a los medios chinos que al parecer se había contagiado del virus durante una inspección en Wuhan.
Reconocer una epidemia puede tomar tiempo. China no es el primer gobierno al que una enfermedad lo toma por sorpresa.
Sin embargo, las decisiones tomadas por los funcionarios del gobierno tuvieron un impacto en un importante eje comercial y de transporte. Wuhan es una ciudad de 11 millones de habitantes, entre ellos casi 1 millón de estudiantes universitarios de todo el país. Para cuando se reveló la gravedad del brote, ya había iniciado la temporada de 40 días de viajes del Año Nuevo lunar, en el que la población china toma un estimado combinado de 3000 millones de viajes.
La población podría haber tomado diferentes decisiones si los sitios webs y los titulares hubieran descrito esta creciente preocupación. Pero, en vez de eso, viajaron. El 21 de enero, los cinco casos confirmados en Pekín fueron de personas que en enero viajaron a Wuhan por negocios, estudios o placer.
Hasta hace una semana, algunas personas en China lo llamaban el “ virus patriótico ”. Aparecieron casos en Hong Kong, Tailandia, Vietnam, Japón y en otros sitios en Asia. Ninguna otra ciudad china excepto Wuhan reportó casos de infección. No fue hasta que los medios de noticias de Hong Kong reportaron durante el fin de semana que el virus había sido detectado en otras ciudades, que los funcionarios de muchos otros lugares dieron la cara.
Algunos críticos ven paralelismos con el SRAG. En 2003, el periódico cantonés Southern Metropolis Daily fue el primero en reportar el brote de SRAG. Un médico militar, Jiang Yanyong, contó lo que sabía. En ese momento fue que los funcionarios empezaron a actuar.
“ La manera como este virus entró a la opinión pública es la misma que la del SRAG hace 17 años ”, dijo Rose Luqiu, una profesora de periodismo que cubrió todo lo relacionado al SRAG como reportera de Phoenix Television en Hong Kong.
Muchas de esas voces valientes del 2003 ya no están. Como casi todos los medios de comunicación chinos que estaban activos en la década de 1990 y 2000, el Southern Metropolis Daily ha perdido su libertad de buscar y difundir información con el fin de que los gobiernos locales, o incluso Pekín, tengan que rendir cuentas. Solo un puñado de medios de noticias de China continental están cubriendo la crisis actual de manera crítica, y solo usando un tono analítico.
En 2003, la televisora Phoenix Television envió a Luqiu, entonces una reportera estrella, de Irak a Pekín para que informara sobre el SRAG. Siguió durante una semana al nuevo alcalde de Pekín, Wang Qishan, para cubrir el modo en que el gobierno lidiaba con la crisis. Wang después se convirtió en vicepresidente de China.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Ese tipo de apertura ahora sería inimaginable. La semana pasada, cuando un grupo de periodistas de Hong Kong visitaron el hospital de Wuhan que más pacientes de coronavirus acogió, la policía los detuvo durante horas. Se les pidió que borrasen sus grabaciones televisivas y que entregaran sus teléfonos y cámaras para ser inspeccionados.
El martes, Luqiu escribió un artículo para qq.com, el sitio de noticias que pertenece al gigante de internet Tencent, sobre las medidas que el gobierno hongkongnés ha tomado para enfrentar el virus. El artículo fue eliminado 10 horas más tarde.
El doctor Jiang, el médico militar que en 2003 se convirtió en un denunciante, se encuentra bajo arresto domiciliario intermitente y tiene prohibido visitar Estados Unidos, donde se le va a entregar un premio de derechos humanos. También se le muestra como mal ejemplo. En una pregunta de opción múltiple en un examen de una escuela preparatoria en 2017 se cuestiona su decisión. La respuesta correcta es la B: Jiang estuvo equivocado porque dañó los intereses de la nación, la sociedad y la comunidad y debería estar sujeto a castigo legal.
La difusión de informaciones en China ha mejorado de muchas maneras desde el SRAG. Esta vez, el gobierno admitió el problema mucho más rápido. Los funcionarios de Pekín han mostrado una determinación por ser más transparentes. Un importante comité del partido afirmó el 21 de enero que no toleraría ninguna iniciativa que intentara esconder las infecciones.
“ Todo aquel que de manera deliberada obstruya u oculte información debido a sus propios intereses, quedará eternamente clavado al pilar de la vergüenza histórica ”, sentenció el comité en una publicación de WeChat. La publicación fue posteriormente eliminada.
Pero cuando el gobierno es la única fuente de información, los consejos sabios y las pistas valiosas pueden perderse. Un departamento policial en la provincia oriental de Shandong publicó el 22 de enero en la red social Weibo ( similar a Twitter), que había detenido a cuatro residentes que difundieron rumores de que había un presunto paciente de coronavirus en el distrito. En ese ambiente hostil, otros no se atreven a hablar.
“ Las autoridades están enviando la señal de que solo las agencias gubernamentales pueden hablar sobre la epidemia ”, escribió en su blog personal Yu Ping, antiguo periodista del Southern Metropolis Daily. “ Todos los demás simplemente deben callarse ”.
“ No es divulgación pública ”, añadió Yu. “ Es un crudo monopolio de la información ”.
Li Yuan escribe la columna Nuevo Nuevo Mundo, que se centra en la intersección de la tecnología, los negocios y la política en China y en toda Asia. @ liyuan6 | business |
The Next Big Development Challenge by Arvind Subramanian & Josh Felman | New strategies for reviving growth in emerging markets will have to be indigenous, rather than coming from Western institutions. But where will such strategies come from, and who will provide the intellectual leadership?
CAMBRIDGE – We have suddenly arrived at a tricky stage in global economic development. Emerging markets are losing their dynamism, after a remarkable three-decade-long run during which they caught up rapidly with advanced economies. Moreover, rekindling this vigor requires a new economic strategy. But where will such a model come from, and who will provide the intellectual leadership?
The latest economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are sobering, pointing to protracted slowdowns across the board in China, India, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. Of course, alarmism about the “ end of growth ” might be as overblown as past hype about emerging markets’ unstoppable rise. But policymakers in developing countries are genuinely concerned and are grappling with how to revive flagging dynamism.
In the past, governments had a ready intellectual solution: the so-called Washington Consensus, a term coined by John Williamson of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which advocated a broad strategy of macroeconomic stabilization, privatization, deregulation, and globalization.
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
Subscribe
Unlock additional commentaries for FREE by registering.
Register
Already have an account? Log in
For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.
But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.
As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.
By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.
Subscribe Now
Writing for PS since 2012 27 Commentaries
Follow
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at Brown University, is a distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development and the author of Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy.
Writing for PS since 2018 6 Commentaries
Josh Felman is Director of JH Consulting.
Before posting a comment, please confirm your account. To receive another confirmation email, please click here.
Great papers. But how can you help Discrimination in economic growth? Poor pays 18% GST when he eats at restaurants. But wealth accumulated from $ 2T economy, 90% wealth owners/riches pay 3% GST on gold jewelry. And the Discrimination list goes on and on.... Will economists address these or someone like new godly-Economist needs to be reborn in the world?
`` protracted slowdowns across the board in China ''??? Hardly! China's economic growth was bigger last year than ever in its history or, for that matter, in world history. GDP growth was 9.4 percent a decade ago, but the base for last year’ s estimated 6.1 percent was 188 percent larger than the base 10 yrs ago. So the incremental expansion in the size of China’ s economy in 2019 was 151 percent bigger than it was at the faster growth rate 10 yrs ago.It is sad indeed that a former Chief Economist is unaware of this simple fact.
It appears that you have not yet updated your first and last name. If you would like to update your name, please do so here.
After posting your comment, you’ ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
Your name
Your email
Friend's name
Friend's email
Message
First Name
Last Name
Email
Phone number
Organization
Please provide more details about your request
The world will enter 2022 still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Developing effective policy responses to these challenges is essential to passing the biggest global test of all: rekindling a sense of public trust and optimism.
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.
Email required
Password required Remember me?
Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we 'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.
Reset Password Cancel
Email required
Sunday newsletter
By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.
| general |
China’ s Virus Outbreak Hit Luxury-Goods Stocks. It Won’ t Last Forever. | The coronavirus crisis could give investors an opportunity to buy a select group of companies that achieve consistently high returns.
The stocks of luxury-goods makers are getting battered by the coronavirus outbreak in China, causing fears of a sales slowdown in Hong Kong and on the mainland. Chinese consumers account for 33% of global luxury-goods sales, according to a 2019 report from Bain & Co. The luxury-goods makers have already suffered through waves of protests in Hong Kong.
Over the four days from Jan. 20 through Jan. 23, shares of Cie. Financière Richemont ( ticker: CFR.Switzerland), parent of Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, and other high-end brands, fell 7.5%. Shares of British apparel maker Burberry Group ( BRBY.UK) are down more than 10%, and shares of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton ( MC.France) are off 6%. Hermès International ( RMS.France) has held up a bit better, with a 3% four-day loss.
But while the possibility of a China slowdown is real, luxury-goods makers have been great businesses over the long haul. For the 12-year period through Jan. 22—as far back as the data go—the MSCI Europe Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods index has delivered a 13.5% annualized return, besting the S & P 500 index’ s 10.4% return.
LVMH is that index’ s largest constituent. Richemont, Hermès, and Burberry are also top constituents, as are athletic apparel and shoe maker Adidas ( ADS.Germany) and Kering ( KER), parent of Gucci, Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Brioni, and Puma.
Barron’ s brings retirement planning and advice to you in a weekly wrap-up of our articles about preparing for life after work.
Richemont has had net margins between 11% and 20% over the past five years. LVMH’ s margins have been similar. Abhay Deshpande, manager of the value-oriented Centerstone International fund ( CINTX), has owned Richemont in the fund since 2016, and is hanging on through this turbulence. He bought Richemont when the stock was struggling after Beijing authorities cracked down on a corruption scandal, in which bureaucrats were bribed with expensive watches and other items to facilitate business transactions in China.
Another fund that owns Richemeont and other luxury brands is YCG Enhanced ( YCGEX). Managers Brian Yacktman and Elliott Savage note that it’ s difficult to disrupt luxury brands and that they tend to grow at or more quickly than the rate of global GDP.
The very-high-end luxury brands have an attraction that constitutes a “ belief network, ” as Savage says, that, once it infiltrates someone’ s psyche, tends to remain. Richemont and a few other brands, such as Hermès, which the fund also owns, can provide those “ museum-quality ” items that many crave—and for which the wealthy are willing to pay top prices. | business |
Chicago Woman Is Second Patient in U.S. With Wuhan Coronavirus | A second patient in the United States has been found to be infected with the Wuhan coronavirus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday.
The patient is a woman in her 60s who had traveled to Wuhan, China — the epicenter of the outbreak — and returned to Chicago on Jan. 13. She did not become ill until several days after arriving in Chicago, so officials do not think there is much risk to others who were on her flight home.
She did not take public transportation, attend any large gatherings or have close contact with anyone outside her home after returning, officials said. Members of her household are being monitored.
The woman was taken to a hospital, but she is doing well and is being kept there primarily to keep the infection from spreading, officials said at a news briefing. They declined to name the woman or the hospital.
The first known case in the United States, of a man in Washington State who had traveled to Wuhan, was reported on Tuesday.
“ The immediate risk to the American public is low at this time, but the situation continues to evolve rapidly, ” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news briefing held by the C.D.C. More cases are expected in the United States, she said.
Sixty-three other people in 22 states are being monitored for possible infection, the C.D.C. said. They are people with respiratory symptoms who may have been exposed to the virus through their own travels or by contact with a patient. So far, 11 of the 63 have tested negative for the infection.
The people being tested, called “ patients under investigation, ” were reported to the C.D.C. by state health officials. Samples from the patients — respiratory fluids and blood — have to be sent to the C.D.C., which tests them for genetic material from the virus.
The testing takes four to six hours. The C.D.C. is developing kits that officials will send out to the states so that local authorities can do the testing themselves and get results faster.
Following a briefing in Washington by officials from the C.D.C. and the National Institutes of Health on Friday, senators said it was most likely that more cases would be identified in the United States.
“ The idea is to identify and then contain it, ” said Senator John Barrasso, Republican of Wyoming.
“ We’ re trying to stop and prevent anyone from coming to the United States that may have it, ” he added.
The C.D.C. is sending a team to talk to the patient and her family in Chicago, according to Senators Richard J. Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, both Democrats of Illinois.
Coronaviruses are worrying because epidemics caused by other members of the viral family, SARS and MERS, have had high death rates: 10 percent for SARS, and about 35 percent for MERS. It is too soon to know the death rate for the new virus.
Although influenza kills more people every year, its overall mortality rate is only about 0.1 percent. The number of the deaths is high because so many people become infected. The death rate of the Spanish flu in 1918 was about 2 percent.
Because of the higher death rates, widespread coronavirus epidemics could take a heavy toll, so the health authorities scramble to stamp them out.
A major concern is that with both SARS and MERS, a few patients inexplicably became “ superspreaders ” who infected huge numbers of other people. At a hospital in Seoul, South Korea, in 2015, one man with MERS transmitted it to 82 patients.
The C.D.C. now recommends avoiding nonessential travel to Wuhan.
Because the disease has spread beyond Wuhan, travelers to other parts of China should avoid contact with people who are sick, stay away from markets that sell live wild animals — believed to be the source of the virus — and wash their hands frequently.
Federal health officials are asking people with possible exposure to the virus and who develop symptoms like shortness of breath, cough and fever to call health care providers first, rather than just showing up at a doctor’ s office, clinic or emergency room.
With advance notice, doctors can take steps to prevent the spread of the virus, like isolating patients and putting masks on themselves and the patients. The woman in Chicago followed those instructions, officials said.
There is no antiviral drug to treat coronavirus infection, but a medicine called remdesivir has shown promise in animal studies and would be a good candidate for trials in humans, according to Dr. Mark R. Denison, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
There is also no vaccine to prevent the disease, but researchers at the National Institutes of Health reported on Thursday that it might be possible to develop one ready for testing in people within a few months.
The incubation period of the disease — the time it takes for symptoms to develop after a person has been exposed to the virus — is thought to be about two weeks, Dr. Messonnier said.
Nearly 1,300 people are infected in China, and a handful of cases have turned up in at least seven other countries. All were travelers who brought home the infection from China. At least 41 people have died.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization declined to declare the outbreak a global emergency, but it “ may yet become one, ” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the W.H.O.’ s director general. It is certainly an emergency within China, he added.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
Five major airports in the United States are screening passengers arriving from Wuhan for signs of infection with coronavirus.
The screenings are imperfect. The illness may resemble a common cold or the flu. Some infected travelers, like the two who have been found to have the disease, may have arrived in the United States before symptoms were evident or before screenings were implemented.
People being screened are also given cards with instructions about what symptoms to look out for and how to seek health care if they develop them.
Emily Cochrane contributed reporting from Washington. | business |
Gottlieb: China's coronavirus more contagious than SARS, less severe | Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak in China is likely more contagious but less severe than the SARS epidemic that rattled markets in 2003 and slowed global economic growth.
`` We probably will have some isolated outbreaks [ of coronavirus in the U.S. ], but that doesn't mean it 'll translate to an epidemic, '' said Gottlieb, a physician, health advocate and Pfizer board member. He left the Food and Drug Administration in April.
The total number of coronavirus cases in China rose to over 900, with 26 deaths. The flu-like virus, which was first identified less than a month ago in the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province, has also infected at least 15 people around the world, mostly in Asia. The U.S. reported one case on Tuesday, a Snohomish County, Washington, resident who was returning from China.
Gottlieb told CNBC that in comparison with SARS, this appears to be more contagious and less severe.
`` But the question is, has it achieved sort of that golden point where it's contagious enough to spread rapidly but still severe enough to cause a lot of harm? '' he said a `` Squawk Box '' interview. `` We don't know that yet. ''
Gottlieb said there could be thousands of mild cases that will likely go undiagnosed and clear up on their own.
Physicians have compared coronavirus to the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, which had a short incubation period of two to seven days. At the time, World Health Organization officials said it was less infectious than the flu. While there were just eight confirmed cases in the U.S., it infected 8,098 people worldwide and killed 774.
SARS, however, didn't spread as fast in its first few weeks as the coronavirus, according to WHO data. It took almost two months for SARS to spread to 456 people. By comparison, the 2019 coronavirus has already infected more than 900 people in less than a month.
Some experts have also said that higher stats could be due to health officials learning from the SARS outbreak and can now confirm cases much more quickly.
National Institutes of Health disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC earlier Friday that China is `` doing much better this time '' than with SARS.
`` From the feedback we're getting, in a real time basis, it's an enormous difference, in a positive way, '' said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The fast-spreading infection prompted local authorities to quarantine several major cities and cancel Lunar New Year's events. More than a dozen Chinese cities, impacting more than 30 million people, were placed on lockdown.
Several companies, including Walt Disney's Shanghai Disney, are suspending operations until further notice to prevent the outbreak from spreading. McDonald's suspended business in five cities in Hubei province.
Fauci said there's still much to be learned about the outbreak.
`` We don't have definitive information now about shedding a virus and we're going to get that information pretty soon as these patients are starting to be studied, '' he said. `` But if they were shedding the virus before showing symptoms, it would not be surprising. ''
— CNBC's Berkeley Lovelace Jr. and Dawn Kopecki contributed to this report. | business |
Stocks Moving Premarket: Intel, Broadcom, Discover Financial | Friday is kicking off with U.S. markets poised to open in the green. Among the factors lifting stocks were healthy manufacturing data from Europe and news that the World Health Organization stopped short of declaring the coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 85 points, or 0.3%, as of 8:15 a.m. on the East Coast. S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
Earnings news has been the biggest driver of market moves.
Intel ( ticker: INTC) shares climbed 5% in premarket trading after the company reported late Thursday that its cloud-computing sales were up 48% year over year. The chip maker’ s full-year 2020 financial forecasts also came in ahead of Wall Street estimates.
Broadcom ( AVGO) shares popped 3.7% after the company said on Thursday it secured a multiyear deal with Apple ( AAPL) to supply wireless components for the maker of iPhones. The deal is expected to deliver $ 15 billion in revenue for Broadcom.
Discover Financial Services ( DFS) shares dropped 7.1% after reporting Thursday that its net interest margin decreased 6 hundredths of a percentage point from the prior year. Friday, the credit-card company was downgraded by Piper Sandler analysts, who worry that profit margins will diminish as credit costs rise and loan growth slows.
American Express ( AXP) shares jumped 2.5% after the company reported financial results that came in higher than expected thanks to high holiday-season spending. | business |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Fell as the Coronavirus Is Greeting the Year of the Rat | Under Pressure. Stocks took a hit on Friday after U.S. authorities confirmed a second case of coronavirus within the country. China continues to institute multicity lockdowns in an effort to control the outbreak, and concerns over the negative impact on its economy is brewing. The Commerce Department has withdrawn proposed regulations making it harder for American companies to sell to Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies, but the White House is exploring other ways to help U.S. companies compete with Huawei. Intel stock ( ticker: INTC) jumped after the chip giant beat Wall Street expectations for December quarter earnings. Broadcom stock ( AVGO) also gained after the company said it has reached new supply component agreements with Apple ( AAPL). In today’ s After the Bell, we...
Stocks came under pressure as the Chinese coronavirus continued to threaten lives, and China’ s economic growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 170.36 points, or 0.58%, to close at 28,989.73. The S & P 500 fell 30.07 points, or 0.90%, to end at 3295.47, and the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 87.57 points, or 0.93%, to close at 9314.91.
Health officials have diagnosed a second case of China coronavirus in the U.S. in Chicago, after the first patient was confirmed in Seattle. Reports suggest that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is going to announce a third case of coronavirus in the U.S. It is also keeping an eye on 60 more people who may or may not have been infected.
The CDC believes the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time, but the quickly evolving situation is unsettling. About 40 million residents in at least seven Chinese cities are under travel restrictions. Public events during the Lunar New Year holiday were canceled, and some businesses and venues have closed. Shanghai Disneyland was closed indefinitely and McDonald’ s ( MCD) has shut down stores in Wuhan and other surrounding cities that have suspended local public transportation due to the outbreak.
Investors are worried about the epidemic’ s potential drag on the Chinese economy, which is already expected to grow at the slowest pace in 2020 in nearly three decades. Wuhan is located in central China where about $ 11 million people currently reside. The city serves as a key transportation hub in China, and has a large-size industrial sector, hosting the headquarters for many car and steel producers.
The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated the virus could shave between 0.5 to 1 percentage point off China’ s GDP growth this year.
Elsewhere, the IHS Markit flash purchasing managers index for manufacturing came in at 51.7 for January, below the consensus expectation for 52.6 and December’ s reading of 52.4. It marks the softest reading since October. The drop in the manufacturing PMI runs counter to some nascent optimism about the sector after both the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys surprised to the upside in January. “ Manufacturing is not out of the woods yet, with goods producers seeing only modest gains in output and new orders, ” Sian Jones, an economist at IHS Markit, wrote in a report.
Still, the services sector remained strong, with the IHS Markit services PMI rising to 53.2 in January from 52.8 in December, hitting the highest level since last March. | business |
Fear of Virus Ruins the ‘ Happiest Day’ for Millions of Chinese | WUHAN, China — The Lunar New Year festivities were just hours away, but instead of helping to prepare a joyous family banquet, Chen Yanming stood anxiously outside a hospital where her father was being tested for a dangerous new virus.
“ Today should be the Chinese people’ s happiest day, ” Ms. Chen, 47, said here in Wuhan, the riverside city of 11 million in central China where the outbreak began. “ But this sickness has destroyed that feeling. It came suddenly and unexpectedly. We should have been better prepared. ”
The emergence of the mysterious coronavirus could hardly come at a worse time for China, turning its biggest holiday into a time of deepening fear, restrictions and frustration.
The pneumonia-like illness linked to the virus has, by official count, stricken nearly 1,300 people in mainland China. At least 41 people have been killed, including 15 new deaths in Wuhan reported by officials on Saturday morning alone. More than 20 other cases have been confirmed elsewhere, including five in Hong Kong, two in the United States, three in France and, on Saturday, one in Australia.
Hundreds of millions of people in China travel during the holiday, increasing the risk of spreading the virus. For many migrant workers from the countryside, the Lunar New Year break is the only opportunity to spend extended time with their children. For growing numbers of Chinese people, it is a time for tourism to Beijing and other cities, or to foreign destinations.
But this year, desperate to contain the disease, the Chinese authorities have shut down transportation or imposed travel restrictions in 13 cities in Hubei, the province at the center of the outbreak, hemming in 35 million people.
The streets across Wuhan were eerily empty on Friday, except near hospitals. The city has been largely shut down: Departures are mostly barred, and subways, buses and ferries within Wuhan are suspended. Many residents lined up at hospitals to check for the illness or stayed indoors, rather than reuniting with family.
At the entrance to the hospital where Ms. Chen waited, cars and bicycles arrived with frail older people to be checked. Residents said it had become nearly impossible to find taxis following the ban on public transportation. Doctors and medical workers struggled to cope with the surge of people worried that they had symptoms of the virus.
At another hospital taking in possible cases of infection, an old man sat in a wheelchair outside the building. It was too crowded and unhealthy inside, he said. Another patient shuffled across the street, holding a drip in his arm and its stand, so he could stay away from the crowd inside the hospital.
“ We won’ t have a New Year celebration tonight. There’ s no mood for it, ” said Wu Qiang, a middle-aged Wuhan resident waiting outside a hospital for word about his son, who had a fever. “ I think he’ s O.K., but now even an ordinary sneeze makes you worry. You start to think every cough or sneeze might be the virus. ”
For many families in Wuhan, the Lunar New Year holiday now promises to be a week of anxious waiting — for medical resources and clarity about when they will be free of the virus and able to travel.
“ The government announced there were thousands of beds, but everywhere is crammed with people, ” said Xiao Hongxia, a Wuhan resident who said that her father, Xiao Shibing, was not getting full care for what might be illness from the virus. At one hospital, she said, “ the doctors were crying that they were helpless to do anything. ”
Thirty of China’ s 31 provinces and regions have confirmed cases, and two deaths have occurred far from the outbreak’ s epicenter, one of them nearly 1,500 miles away. Cases have also been detected in Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Nepal and Taiwan.
Officials at Shanghai Disneyland, one of the biggest tourist attractions in China, and at the Badaling section of the Great Wall of China, a popular tourist destination north of Beijing, said they would temporarily close beginning Saturday.
Beijing canceled public events, including two popular temple fairs, and closed the Forbidden City, the capital’ s most famous tourist attraction, until further notice. Many cities shuttered movie theaters, bars and cafes in an effort to limit the spread of the virus.
Dr. Gauden Galea, the representative of the World Health Organization in Beijing, said in an interview on Friday that thousands of people would likely be infected, and that the outbreak could be long.
“ My own office is gearing up for a number of months, ” Dr. Galea said. “ We do not expect it to disappear in a number of days. ”
Here in Wuhan, supermarkets seemed well stocked, but some residents said that prices had gone up or that fresh vegetables and fruit had become harder to buy because so many local markets had closed.
More pressing are shortages of protective gowns, masks, gloves and other equipment to keep medical workers as safe as possible. Supplies have grown scarce in Wuhan under the weight of the epidemic, hospital employees in Wuhan said.
Outside the No. 4 Hospital in Wuhan, two medical workers taking boxes of protective gowns from a truck said the gowns did not give maximum protection from the virus, but would have to do because better supplies were lacking. Some doctors and medical workers have bought their own maximum protection masks because hospitals were running short, one of them said.
“ Shortage of medical supplies, request help!!! ” the Wuhan Children’ s Hospital said Thursday in a post on Weibo, a Chinese social network.
The Wuhan government on Friday ordered that a new hospital be constructed in a matter of days to treat the victims.
The hospital, modeled on one constructed in Beijing for the SARS epidemic in 2003, will have room for 1,000 beds and is expected to be finished by Feb. 3, according to a local media report posted to the Wuhan government’ s website.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Dr. Galea, who visited Wuhan this week before the lockdown, defended how Chinese officials had handled the outbreak, saying they had been transparent in sharing data.
“ With the number of cases, ” he said, “ one would expect health systems to be stretched. ”
But online and in interviews, people around China have been unusually critical of their government, arguing that officials are reluctant to disclose bad news that might sully the Communist Party’ s image of triumphant progress.
In posts on Chinese social media platforms, some users called for Wuhan leaders to be dismissed. Others mocked the failure of the Communist Party’ s flagship media to treat the epidemic with front-page urgency. Most of those posts were quickly removed.
In a sign of how far the outbreak has scrambled the Communist Party’ s messages, the annual Lunar New Year variety show on the main national broadcaster — which usually gives a cheerful face to the party’ s themes — made nods to the crisis.
The show broadcast images of doctors and nurses treating patients, of trucks of supplies festooned with banners that said, roughly translated, “ Go Wuhan! ” The presenters declared that the fight against the coronavirus was open, transparent and a testament to the abilities of the Chinese government.
“ For Wuhan people, tonight the table should be filled with dishes of fish and meat, ” said Ms. Chen. “ But with my father sick, we’ ll have a few simple dishes. ”
Reporting was contributed by Russell Goldman and Alexandra Stevenson from Hong Kong; Ray Zhong from Shanghai; and Javier C. Hernández from Beijing. Yiwei Wang, Amber Wang, Claire Fu and Lin Qiqing contributed research. | business |
European Stocks Surge as World Health Organization Calms China Virus Fears | European stocks rebounded sharply on Friday as the World Health Organization eased concerns over the coronavirus crisis in China.
The Stoxx 600 climbed 1.2% in early trading, while the German DAX and the French CAC rose 1.3%, having dropped on Thursday amid concerns over the spreading virus. The FTSE 100 climbed 1.6%.
The continent’ s major indexes rebounded on Friday despite the coronavirus death toll rising to 26 people. The World Health Organization’ s decision not to declare the outbreak a public health emergency appears to have improved sentiment among investors. China has also imposed travel restrictions on a ninth city in a bid to contain the virus.
European stocks slipped on Thursday over the coronavirus crisis and as investors moved away from riskier assets. U.S. President Donald Trump added to the negative sentiment by threatening “ very high tariffs ” in a trade deal with the European Union.
Aside from the improved sentiment regarding the coronavirus, economic data provided a further boost to stocks.
Germany’ s purchasing managers’ index ( PMI) data suggested the country’ s economy, which recorded its weakest growth last year since 2013, picked up at the beginning of 2020.
The manufacturing and services sectors both beat expectations, with the composite PMI rising to 51.1 in January from 50.2 in December.
“ A number of positive takeaways from January’ s flash PMI survey suggest the storm clouds over the German economy may be starting to clear, ” said Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the data.
The Eurozone PMI survey revealed a slower start to the year for the bloc’ s economy, with growth ticking along at the same pace as in December. Manufacturing PMI moved to five-month highs and closer to stabilizing, but the sector contracted for a 12th consecutive month.
The U.K. economy returned to growth as its composite PMI climbed to 52.4, up from 49.3 in December.
Shares in Ericsson slumped 8% as the telecommunications equipment company’ s fourth quarter earnings were hit by higher 5G costs and a weaker U.S. market. | business |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops After Another Coronavirus Case Found in U.S. | 2:35 p.m. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’ s 100-point gain at Friday’ s open has turned into a more than 200-point loss on reports of another case of coronavirus in the U.S.
The Dow has declined 283.37 points, or 1%, to 28,876.72, while the S & P 500 has fallen 1.2% to 3285.96 and the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 1.2% to 9,287.12.
Reports suggest that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is going to announce a third case of coronavirus in the U.S. It is also keeping an eye on 60 more people who may or may not have the illness. A second case has already been reported in Illinois.
The market hasn’ t been able to ignore that completely. And for good reason. The response to the outbreak in China has been massive, with a new hospital being built in Wuhan to deal with it, and some 40 million people under lockdown. Heck, even Shanghai Disneyland has been shut.
So perhaps reality is setting in about the impact the coronavirus will have on both the economy and the market “ We think it’ s going to freeze up a lot of travel and trade in Q1, ” writes Merion Capital Group’ s Richard Farr. “ And that’ s going to hit GDP worldwide. ”
The stock market has been betting on an earnings revival in 2020, with the hope being that earnings growth can help shrink it’ s valuation. It’ s just one more risk to add to the equation. | business |
下一个发展大挑战 by Arvind Subramanian & Josh Felman | 坎布里奇—突然间，我们来到了全球经济发展的微妙阶段。在经历了令人瞩目的三十年增长、迅速赶超发达经济体之后，新兴市场正在失去活力。此外，重燃活力需要新的经济战略。但这一模式从哪里去找，谁又能提供理论领导？
国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行的最新经济预测令人警醒，它们表明，中国、印度、撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲无不将陷入长期减速。当然，关于 “ 增长的终结 ” 的警告可能像过去的新兴市场崛起不可阻挡的说法一样，有些过于夸张。但发展中国家的决策者真的忧心忡忡，正在绞尽脑汁思考如何复苏日颓的活力。
在过去，政府有一个现成的理论方案：所谓的华盛顿共识。这一术语由彼得森国际经济学研究所的约翰·威廉姆森（John Williamson）提出，其鼓吹一套总体战略，包括宏观经济稳定、私有化、去监管化和全球化。
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
Subscribe
Unlock additional commentaries for FREE by registering.
Register
Already have an account? Log in
For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.
But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.
As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.
By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.
Subscribe Now
Writing for PS since 2012 27 Commentaries
Follow
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at Brown University, is a distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development and the author of Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy.
Writing for PS since 2018 6 Commentaries
Josh Felman is Director of JH Consulting.
Before posting a comment, please confirm your account. To receive another confirmation email, please click here.
Great papers. But how can you help Discrimination in economic growth? Poor pays 18% GST when he eats at restaurants. But wealth accumulated from $ 2T economy, 90% wealth owners/riches pay 3% GST on gold jewelry. And the Discrimination list goes on and on.... Will economists address these or someone like new godly-Economist needs to be reborn in the world?
`` protracted slowdowns across the board in China ''??? Hardly! China's economic growth was bigger last year than ever in its history or, for that matter, in world history. GDP growth was 9.4 percent a decade ago, but the base for last year’ s estimated 6.1 percent was 188 percent larger than the base 10 yrs ago. So the incremental expansion in the size of China’ s economy in 2019 was 151 percent bigger than it was at the faster growth rate 10 yrs ago.It is sad indeed that a former Chief Economist is unaware of this simple fact.
It appears that you have not yet updated your first and last name. If you would like to update your name, please do so here.
After posting your comment, you’ ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
Your name
Your email
Friend's name
Friend's email
Message
First Name
Last Name
Email
Phone number
Organization
Please provide more details about your request
The world will enter 2022 still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Developing effective policy responses to these challenges is essential to passing the biggest global test of all: rekindling a sense of public trust and optimism.
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.
Email required
Password required Remember me?
Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we 'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.
Reset Password Cancel
Email required
Sunday newsletter
By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.
| general |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops 141 Points as Coronavirus Spreads | Sliding. The three major U.S. stock market indexes fell as the second case of coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed by American authorities, and China continued to lock down multiple cities as it tries to control the disease.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 141 points, or 0.5%. The S & P 500 dropped 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6%.
Intel ( ticker: INTC) jumped 8.5% after the chipmaker’ s earnings beat estimates.
American Express ( AXP) gained 2.4% after the company reported strong earnings and fast-growing fee revenue.
Synchrony Financial ( SYF) lost 9.4% after the private label-credit card company reported that its revenue from interest, fees, and loans dropped year over year.
Discover Financial Services ( DFS) fell 9.3% after it reported earnings just ahead of expectations and offered higher-than-expected expense guidance for 2020, which led to downgrades from Evercore ISI and Piper Sandler.
Wynn Resorts ( WYNN) was down 3.5% as investors feared that the coronavirus outbreak will cut into gambling activity in Macau. | business |
If You Missed Out on Tesla Stock, Consider This Chinese Car Maker | Shares in electric-vehicle pioneer Tesla have been on a tear, gaining some 125% over the past three months, crushing the gains of the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. While better-than-expected third-quarter earnings were a major catalyst, growing optimism about the Chinese EV market also helped.
Tesla ( ticker: TSLA) just started delivering Model 3 vehicles built in a new Shanghai facility to customers in China.
China is the world’ s biggest market for electric cars, and growth is expected to continue. But there are more ways than just Tesla to play it. Investors frustrated about missing out on Telsa’ s epic run may want to consider looking at Chinese EV maker BYD ( 1211.Hong Kong).
“ We believe China EV [ penetration ] goes from 5% today to 10% in the next two years, ” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’ s. “ Global EV [ penetration ] will be 7% by 2024. ”
Ives is talking about the percentage of new-car sales that will be electric. U.S. EV penetration is about 2%, less than half Chinese levels. “ China is the fuel for Tesla on EV demand, ” Ives said.
Ives doesn’ t cover BYD, but does cover Tesla and rates its shares the equivalent of Hold, with a $ 550 price target. He is optimistic about China and EV demand overall, but Tesla’ s high valuation keeps him from recommending the stock.
Tesla, after all, is now a member of the $ 100 billion market-capitalization club. There are only about 50 companies in the U.S. with market values that high. Tesla is now the second-largest car company in the world, trailing only Toyota Motor ( TM). BYD’ s market cap, conversely, is about $ 25 billion.
BYD makes more cars than Tesla does and sold about 460,000 vehicles in 2019, compared with 367,500 Tesla sold globally. Tesla, however, sells higher-end cars. It generated about $ 24 billion in 2019 sales, while BYD will take in closer to $ 18 billion.
Receive Barron's new features and product highlights. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Unlike Tesla, the Chinese auto maker sells both battery-powered and internal-combustion vehicles, and about half of BYD sales are EVs. While Tesla sells more electric cars overall, BYD’ s EV sales outpace Tesla’ s in China.
Both companies are profitable. Tesla has made money for two straight quarters and generated positive free cash flow as well. BYD has been profitable for years.
Neither stock, though, is cheap. Tesla trades for more than 80 times estimated 2020 earnings of $ 6.78 a share. BYD trades for 50 times earnings of about 92 Hong Kong cents a share, or about 12 U.S. cents.
BYD trades in Hong Kong and reports in Hong Kong dollars. The market values and sales comparisons are in U.S. dollars. BYD also trades in the U.S. as an American depositary receipt ( BYDDF). The ADRs closed Thursday at $ 5.98, down 1.3%, as the entire Chinese market sold off on coronavirus fears.
BYD is also cheaper, relatively speaking, than Tesla because its growth isn’ t as robust. BYD sales fell in 2019, while Tesla vehicle deliveries grew about 50%. But the entire Chinese new-car market declined by about 8% in 2019. Despite the dip, EV penetration increased in China year over year.
BYD has one more thing going for it: Warren Buffett. His Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A) owns more than 8% of the company. Buffett, however, bought a long time ago, back around 2008, when BYD shares were about one-third the price they are today.
Still, Buffett appears to believe in the future of electric cars. And, judging by Tesla’ s recent market action, most other investors do too. | business |
How to Prevent the Japanification of East Asia’ s Economies by Lee Jong-Wha | Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan were long hailed for their economic dynamism, but now risk following the low-growth path of Japan over the last three decades. To avoid this fate, their governments must adopt a comprehensive set of policies to tackle structural weaknesses.
NEW YORK – At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association ( AEA) in early January, former US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, and eminent economists warned that Western economies risked “ Japanification ”: a future of sluggish growth, low inflation, and perpetually low interest rates. Yet, surprising as it may seem, this malaise also threatens East Asia.
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, once called the “ Asian tigers, ” now face slow growth and disinflationary pressures. Last year, Hong Kong’ s economy contracted by 1.2%, while the other three grew only modestly – Singapore by 0.6%, and South Korea and Taiwan by about 2% each. Inflation in each of these three countries was about 0.6%. East Asia’ s economies suffered from weaker external demand – a result of slow growth in major industrialized countries and China – as well as domestic structural and supply factors. Moreover, their growth potential is trending downward.
Economically and demographically, these East Asian countries seem to be tracking Japan. For starters, Japan is the world’ s most rapidly aging society, with 28% of its population aged 65 and above, up from 14% in 1994. This age cohort’ s share of the population in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan now averages about 14%, and is forecast to increase rapidly in the coming decades. A shrinking workforce will in turn reverse the demographic dividends that previously supported strong regional growth. In South Korea, for example, average annual GDP growth between 2020 and 2040 is forecast to be about one percentage point lower than now.
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
Subscribe
Unlock additional commentaries for FREE by registering.
Register
Already have an account? Log in
For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.
But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.
As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.
By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.
Subscribe Now
Writing for PS since 2012 53 Commentaries
Follow
Lee Jong-Wha, Professor of Economics at Korea University, was chief economist at the Asian Development Bank and a senior adviser for international economic affairs to former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.
Before posting a comment, please confirm your account. To receive another confirmation email, please click here.
Lee Jong-Wha fears the Asian tigers – Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan – may now risk going through the process of “ Japanification. ” It’ s a term used by economists to describe a state of chronically anemic economic growth and feeble inflation or even deflation similar to the conditions Japan faced since a sharp plunge in the real estate market in the early 1990s, after a long period of boom. Even after Japan’ s central bank embraced two extraordinary forms of monetary stimulus – negative interest rates and asset purchases worth more than the entire size of the world’ s third-largest economy – the country has yet to return to a positive growth cycle strong enough to generate 2% inflation after nearly three decades of low-growth. In recent years the US and major European economies have been echoing the same Japanese pattern. The author hopes the four Asian economic power houses would avoid meeting Japan’ s fate, urging their governments to “ adopt a comprehensive set of policies to tackle structural weaknesses. ” However, economically and demographically, they seem to be facing the same challenges – a shrinking workforce due to an aging population, and a sluggish growth. It is crucial that they avoid repeating the macroeconomic policy mistakes Japan made. When the housing bubble popped, the Bank of Japan and policy makers were slow to recognise the scope of the problem. Bad loans piled up. The financial troubles rippled through the economy as consumer spending and job growth fell. The slump was extraordinarily long-lived, ending only two decades ago. This period of stagnation is known as Japan’ s lost decade – a humbling and lasting setback for a nation once feared and admired as a model of economic dynamism.The author says the European Central Bank ( ECB) and the Fed were “ mindful ” of Japan’ s woes and have “ aggressively cut interest rates and injected large amounts of liquidity since the 2008 financial crisis. ” The ECB under its former chief, Mario Draghi, had employed policy tools like “ quantitative easing. ” Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers fears a “ secular stagnation ” - when mature industrial economies tend to move toward instability in the absence of large amounts of public investment. As a measure to avoid “ Japanification, ” the author proposes three paths for the four Asian tihers to follow – they must “ adopt a comprehensive set of policies to overcome their structural weaknesses. ” They should “ spend more on productivity-enhancing infrastructure, technologies, and education '' to boost potential growth. This short-term Keynesian policy of deficit spending helps boost “ public investment in productive sectors ” and “ complement weak private demand and expand supply capacity. ” In order to maintain growth, governments need to secure a reliable workforce, invest in human resources and create incentives that encourage women and the elderly to participate in the labour market. Apart from offering “ a lifelong education and skills training, ” it is equally important to ease immigration rules for foreign workers, and “ tackle inefficiencies in both the financial sector and regulatory policies in order to improve productivity growth. ” Most of all, governments must ensure economic and social equality, while “ bolstering public trust in institutions ”. The author believes Asian countries could learn from Japan, whose society has “ remained harmonious and stable, providing a solid foundation for managing stable growth. ” Elsewhere in Asia, “ rising economic inequality amid weak growth is eroding public confidence in political institutions, ” with protesters in Hong Kong and South Korea taking to the streets to voice their anger and frustration. Governments need to implement policies that bridge social divides, tackle income inequality and restore trust in their institutions - a tall order for the four Asian tigers.
The bubble economy of Japan in the 1980s was a second defeat since 1945. How the bubble rose and busted perhaps can not be explained without considering Japan having taken too much advice from the US concerning its economic policy. Tokyo failed to make soft landing.It would be interesting to compare which runs faster, Japan or South Korea; it would be a dismal talk to compare which one is a slower runner.But the South Korean demographic decline will turn out to be severer very soon than the Japanese one.Korean college students want to leave their country and come to Japan to find jobs with Japanese firms; many Korean universities encourage them to do so. Korean young people call the ROK hell choson ( hell Korea) because of dire prospects.The South Korean economic and financial circles come to Japan to meet Japanese politicians and financial circles and ask for the currency swapping of the South Korean won for the Japanese yen. They ask their government for swappings with Japan. But this time, unlike previous times, Prime Minister Abe and Finance Minister Aso would not consent; they know Koreans have repeatedly and again and again cheated Japan.China, Korea, Vietnam and no other counties are Confucian coutries; Japan was historically fortunate in not falling prey to the autistic, self-centered dogma. Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong are Confucian societies as off-shoots of China but democratic sentiments in South Korea and Taiwan are due to Japanese colonial legacy. Singapore and Hong Kong perhaps owe them to the British.Prof. Auer of Vanderbilt University met with a group of South Korean young people. They were astoshnished to hear that there were more Japanese comfort women than Korean during the Pacific War. And there were far more South Korean comfort women during the Korean War than there were Japanese and Korean women combined during the Pacific War. The treatment of Korean women by the South Korean government was really hideous. Please read my ( Michi's) comment, American Humanism, on Chinese Comfort Women, amazon usa.Marshall Wordsworth/Inconvenient and Uncomfortable: Transcending Japan's Comfort Women Paradigm is a short but good read. Ikuhiko Hata/Comfort Women and Sex in the Battle Zone is more comprehensive.A Japanese expert gives some details in Comfort Women Issue in Sharper Focus. It is available on the Internet in Japanese and English at the following address: http: //www.seisaku-center.net/node/840
2% is very good growth for an advanced economy, that's what the US is getting and they had to add $ 1tn to the deficit in tax cuts to do it.
Don't knock it, other Asian countries could do a lot worse than emulate Japanese style management of difficult demographics and rising competitors. It's managing decline, sure, but it's better than descending into geriatric revolution and chaos because the world around you is fast shifting away from you. Japan has stayed remarkably true to it's Confucianism all the way into modernity, always adapting a bit at a time, even after it was forced open by the west, even after catastrophic defeat in WWII. Even female emancipation has been steadily improving over the decades. It gives me hope, ( alongside rising alarm at it's terrifying embrace of tech-powered authoritarianism) that China will eventually fall into a similar pattern.
It appears that you have not yet updated your first and last name. If you would like to update your name, please do so here.
After posting your comment, you’ ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
Your name
Your email
Friend's name
Friend's email
Message
First Name
Last Name
Email
Phone number
Organization
Please provide more details about your request
The world will enter 2022 still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Developing effective policy responses to these challenges is essential to passing the biggest global test of all: rekindling a sense of public trust and optimism.
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.
Email required
Password required Remember me?
Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we 'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.
Reset Password Cancel
Email required
Sunday newsletter
By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.
| general |
Despite Coronavirus Fears, It’ s Time to Buy United | United Airlines stock dropped this week in connection to news of hundreds of confirmed cases of coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China. Fears of international contagion have disrupted travel plans worldwide, causing travel stocks to fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 170 points Friday in response to the second confirmed case in the U.S.
However, analysts say the market is overreacting, especially because extensive efforts are being undertaken to contain the virus. They cite United’ s ( ticker: UAL) rainy-day provisions included in the company’ s forecast, the short-lasting impact of previous outbreaks on travel stocks, and its recent strong performance report as reasons to buy the stock.
Global airlines have to account for unforeseeable circumstances when creating earnings forecasts. J.P. Morgan analyst Jaime Baker remains optimistic about United’ s outlook in light of the coronavirus outbreak, citing allowances built into United’ s report.
“ United deliberately builds speed bumps into its demand guides, believing ( thus far, correctly) that something unexpected will transpire during every quarter, ” he wrote in a note.
In an emailed comment to Barron’ s, United emphasized the importance of prudent forecasting to absorb any events across the world, such as weather events or dips in local economies.
Of all the U.S. airline carriers, Jose Caiado of Credit Suisse noted, United has the largest exposure to China and the Asia-Pacific region. This area made up 15% of total available revenue per seat per mile and 10% of total revenue for United in 2019, meaning that the company would “ see the greatest revenue hit if this virus outbreak has a significant impact on demand. ” Given the company’ s exposure to the region, Caiado still maintains his Outperform rating on United stock.
Even still, David Vernon of A.B. Bernstein expects the coronavirus effect to be small, dropping United’ s expected first-quarter estimated earnings per share down about $ 0.08, with the assumption that the outbreak will be “ less severe than the effect SARS had on load factors. ”
Modeling data from the Ebola outbreak, Joseph DeNardi of Stifel presented a “ worst-case scenario ” of United losing 23% of full-year earnings per share due to the coronavirus. Even in that situation, DeNardi would rate the stock as Buy.
Indeed, travel stocks bounced back from previous outbreaks, such as SARS in 2003 and Ebola in 2014.
United’ s recent earnings report is also a bright spot for analysts. In a note on Tuesday, Raymond Jones analyst Savanthi Syth said United’ s earnings and guidance update was “ solid. ” She predicted minimal effects of coronavirus on future performance, given “ United’ s conservative guidance practice in recent years. ”
Michael Linenberg at Deutsche Bank, who has a Buy rating on United, sees an opportunity for investors to snatch up the stock during its downturn. He wrote in a note on Thursday, “ We see the recent selloff in United ( down 6% over the past two days) due to the spread of the coronavirus as an opportunity to acquire shares at a more attractive entry-point. ”
On Tuesday, United reported a fourth-quarter net income of $ 641 million, up from $ 461 million a year prior. The earnings per share rose to $ 2.53 from $ 1.69. Adjusted earnings were $ 2.67 per share, up 11% from the fourth quarter of 2018. The company maintained its 2020 full-year earnings target of $ 11 to $ 13.
The solid earnings report failed to reassure investors. United ended Tuesday down 4.4% in response to market fears of reduced travel, while the Dow fell 152 points.
Still, coronavirus isn’ t the only factor that could impact United’ s future performance. Fuel prices, which make up 30% of expenses, and the delay of Boeing’ s 737 MAX in returning to service will also weigh on the stock. United was slated to receive 16 of these airplanes in 2019 and 28 in 2020. However, uncertainty regarding when the FAA will clear this model for takeoff has shaken plans. | business |
Новая серьёзная задача для развития by Arvind Subramanian & Josh Felman | КЕМБРИДЖ ( США) – Внезапно мы достигли весьма сложной стадии в глобальном экономическом развитии. Развивающиеся страны начали терять свой динамизм после выдающегося тридцатилетнего периода, в ходе которого они быстро догоняли развитые страны. Чтобы вновь обрести былую энергию, потребуется новая экономическая стратегия. Но где взять эту новую модель, и кто сможет обеспечить интеллектуальное лидерство?
Последние экономические прогнозы Международного валютного фонда и Всемирного банка отрезвляют: они указывают на продолжительное замедление темпов роста во многих странах – в Китае, Индии, Африке южнее Сахары и Латинской Америке. Алармизм по поводу « прекращения роста », конечно, является таким же преувеличением, как и прежние шумные разглагольствования о неудержимом подъёме развивающихся стран. Тем не менее, власти этих стран действительно озабочены; они стараются понять, как можно оживить слабеющий динамизм.
В прошлом у властей было готовое интеллектуальное решение: так называемый Вашингтонский консенсус ( термин придумал Джон Вильямсон из Института международной экономики им. Петерсона), который предполагал широкую стратегию макроэкономической стабилизации, приватизации, дерегулирования и глобализации.
We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.
Subscribe
Unlock additional commentaries for FREE by registering.
Register
Already have an account? Log in
For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.
But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.
As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.
By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.
Subscribe Now
Writing for PS since 2012 27 Commentaries
Follow
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at Brown University, is a distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development and the author of Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy.
Writing for PS since 2018 6 Commentaries
Josh Felman is Director of JH Consulting.
Before posting a comment, please confirm your account. To receive another confirmation email, please click here.
Great papers. But how can you help Discrimination in economic growth? Poor pays 18% GST when he eats at restaurants. But wealth accumulated from $ 2T economy, 90% wealth owners/riches pay 3% GST on gold jewelry. And the Discrimination list goes on and on.... Will economists address these or someone like new godly-Economist needs to be reborn in the world?
`` protracted slowdowns across the board in China ''??? Hardly! China's economic growth was bigger last year than ever in its history or, for that matter, in world history. GDP growth was 9.4 percent a decade ago, but the base for last year’ s estimated 6.1 percent was 188 percent larger than the base 10 yrs ago. So the incremental expansion in the size of China’ s economy in 2019 was 151 percent bigger than it was at the faster growth rate 10 yrs ago.It is sad indeed that a former Chief Economist is unaware of this simple fact.
It appears that you have not yet updated your first and last name. If you would like to update your name, please do so here.
After posting your comment, you’ ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
Your name
Your email
Friend's name
Friend's email
Message
First Name
Last Name
Email
Phone number
Organization
Please provide more details about your request
The world will enter 2022 still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Developing effective policy responses to these challenges is essential to passing the biggest global test of all: rekindling a sense of public trust and optimism.
Although major economies and markets fared well in 2021 despite all of the uncertainties surrounding new variants of the coronavirus, 2022 will bring new challenges. In addition to central banks shifting toward policy normalization, geopolitical and systemic risks are multiplying.
Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.
Email required
Password required Remember me?
Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we 'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.
Reset Password Cancel
Email required
Sunday newsletter
By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.
| general |
Effects of Coronavirus Begin Echoing Far From Wuhan Epicenter | WUHAN, China — The repercussions from a mysterious virus that has sickened hundreds of people began reverberating far from its epicenter in central China on Saturday, as Hong Kong closed its schools for several weeks, Beijing began restricting buses in and out of the capital, and the country’ s travel association suspended Chinese tour groups heading overseas.
The new measures, coming on top of previous travel restrictions that had effectively penned in tens of millions of people in Hubei, the province at the heart of the outbreak, are certain to further dampen celebrations of the Lunar New Year, which began on Saturday.
They came, too, as China’ s top leader, Xi Jinping, who had said little publicly about the crisis despite growing criticism of the response, pledged Saturday that officials would “ stand at the front line to safeguard social stability. ”
The illness linked to the virus has killed at least 56 people and sickened more than 1,300 in China, according to official reports. Cases have been confirmed in all but one of China’ s provinces and autonomous regions, as well as in at least 11 other countries as the virus has spread to Europe, the United States Australia and, most recently, Canada.
The virus has sickened tens of thousands of people in China and a number of other countries.
Among the newest victims in China was a 62-year-old ear, nose and throat specialist, who died on Saturday, according to state news media. It was unclear whether the doctor, who had retired last year, had treated patients with the disease.
And officials in the southern city of Hechi said on Saturday that a 2-year-old girl suffering from the coronavirus had been admitted to a hospital, becoming the youngest person known to be infected.
In a sign of how the coronavirus has shaken China, Mr. Xi convened a meeting of Communist Party leaders on Saturday to try to stem the outbreak.
“ We’ re sure to be able to win in this battle to beat the epidemic, ” said Mr. Xi, according to a summary of his remarks by state media, offering some of his most extensive remarks to date on the crisis.
Mr. Xi called for stronger efforts to provide medicine and other supplies to affected areas. Shortages have angered doctors and medical workers, particularly in Wuhan, the Hubei provincial capital where the outbreak began. Hospitals have issued pleas for donated supplies.
Party leaders also directed railway stations, airports and ports to step up measures to deter the spread of the virus, through ventilation, disinfection and body temperature checks.
Chinese officials announced later Saturday that more than 1,200 medical personnel would be sent to Wuhan and over 10,000 beds in 24 local hospitals would be requisitioned for treating confirmed and suspected cases of the virus.
But the official response so far has drawn stinging rebukes on social media, where people are questioning whether the authorities are accurately reporting the number of cases or doing enough to rein in the outbreak. In particular, people have denounced the perceived indifference of local, provincial and even national authorities.
“ Where is that person? He is not on the front line, ” one user wrote on Weibo, a Twitter-like platform, in an apparent reference to Mr. Xi.
State media has maintained a steady drumbeat of positive news about the outbreak, praising the sacrifices of responders and everyday people. But there was little doubt the disease had derailed celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the country’ s biggest holiday and busiest travel period.
Travel constraints imposed earlier in Wuhan and 12 nearby cities have effectively penned in 35 million people. Wuhan tightened its restrictions further on Saturday, with a ban on most vehicle traffic in the city center.
The restrictions began spreading far beyond Wuhan, too: In Beijing, the city government said it would halt all inter-province buses beginning on Sunday, effectively limiting road travel into the capital.
The association of China’ s travel agencies said that it would suspend all tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for citizens headed overseas, starting on Monday. Groups already on their trips were allowed to continue, with the directive that travelers’ health be closely monitored.
The move to cut off group tours could have a ripple effect across countries that depend on Chinese tourists. While China is now home to an increasingly sophisticated population ready to hit the tourist routes by themselves, a large number of Chinese do not feel comfortable traveling abroad unless they are with a group.
New measures were also imposed in Hong Kong, where its leader, Carrie Lam, declared a health emergency. Five coronavirus patients connected to Wuhan are being treated in Hong Kong, and more than 100 others are suspected of having the viral pneumonia.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Lunar New Year celebrations are being canceled in Hong Kong, schools will be closed until mid-February and the Hong Kong Marathon has been called off. The city is also suspending flights and train services to Wuhan.
A study by the medical journal The Lancet, published on Friday, raised new concerns that people infected with the coronavirus might be able to spread it even if they do not have flu-like symptoms.
Researchers studied a family in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, five of whom had traveled to Wuhan and two of whom had come in contact with an infected relative in a hospital there. Testing conducted after the family flew home found that six members had the coronavirus, including one who had not gone to Wuhan.
One infected family member, a child, had no symptoms, suggesting that people with the virus might be spreading it without knowing that they have it, the study found.
“ It shows this new coronavirus is able to transfer between person to person, in a hospital setting, a family home setting, and also in an intercity setting, ” Yuen Kwok-yung, an author of the study, said in an interview. “ This is exactly what makes this new disease difficult to control. ”
The United States Embassy said on Saturday that all American employees at its consulate in Wuhan have been ordered to leave. The United States government is arranging a charter flight to evacuate American diplomats and citizens on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the plan.
For people in the United States with close ties to China, the outbreak has brought worry, disappointment and scrutiny. Some Chinese-Americans have had their Lunar New Year plans waylaid, as travel schedules for the coming week and beyond are interrupted.
Chinese-Americans have scrambled, though, to send aid to their friends and family in China.
Sean Shi, of Issaquah, Wash., said he shipped several boxes of masks to China in a friend’ s luggage, hoping that they could reach friends in the Wuhan area. Later in the day, Mr. Shi was back at a hardware store, buying another 46 masks for some of his former peers at Wuhan University.
“ We understand it’ s a tough situation over there — the panic, the shortage of equipment, ” Mr. Shi said. “ We just realized the situation is very serious — more serious than we thought. ”
Christopher Buckley reported from Wuhan, and Tiffany May from Hong Kong. Reporting was contributed by Steven Lee Myers, Vivian Wang, Raymond Zhong, Carlos Tejada, Rick Gladstone, Mike Baker, Jeffrey E. Singer and Elian Peltier. Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
French health officials confirm three cases of Wuhan coronavirus |
Three cases of Wuhan coronavirus have been identified in France, the Health Ministry announced Friday. They are the first European cases of the newly discovered virus, officials said.
One patient is a 48-year-old man in the southwestern city of Bordeaux, Health Minister Agnès Buzyn told reporters.
Buzyn said the man traveled to China and visited Wuhan before returning to France on January 22. A day later, he sought medical examination and has remained in isolation since then.
`` He's in isolation and he's doing well, '' Buzyn said.
A visual guide to the Wuhan coronavirus
Two other patients have been admitted to a hospital in Paris, the ministry said in a statement.
Read More
`` It might be because we set up the tests in a very short time making us capable to identify them, '' the minister told reporters. `` What matters is to contain the fire as fast as possible, that's why we need to know the patient's history, find the people that patient was in contact with, to meet them, speak to them and give them the instructions to first of all stay at home and avoid any contact. ''
The virus, which was first discovered in the city of Wuhan in December, has spread to every province in China, except the remote autonomous regions of Qinghai and Tibet, with the number of infections rising to more than 1,000 worldwide.
As of Friday, the virus had claimed the lives of at least 41 people in mainland China.
The virus has started to spread around the world.
Two cases have been identified in the United States
, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The patients, a woman in her 60s and a man in his 30s, traveled to Wuhan and recently returned to the US.
Cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Japan and Vietnam.
CNN's Nicole Chavez wrote from Atlanta, Saskya Vandoorne and Fanny Bobille reported from Paris. | general |
China’ s Omnivorous Markets Are in the Eye of a Lethal Outbreak Once Again | LANGFANG, China — The typical market in China has fruits and vegetables, butchered beef, pork and lamb, whole plucked chickens — with heads and beaks attached — and live crabs and fish, spewing water out of churning tanks. Some sell more unusual fare, including live snakes, turtles and cicadas, guinea pigs, bamboo rats, badgers, hedgehogs, otters, palm civets, even wolf cubs.
The markets are fixtures in scores of Chinese cities, and now, for at least the second time in two decades, they are the source of an epidemic that has spread fear, taxed the Communist Party bureaucracy and exposed the epidemiological risks that can spawn in places where humans and wildlife converge.
The novel coronavirus that has already killed at least 56 and sickened more than 1,370 in China and around the world is believed to have spread from exactly one of these places: a wholesale market in Wuhan, a city in central China, where vendors legally sold live animals from stalls in close quarters with hundreds of others.
“ This is where you get new and emerging diseases that the human population has never seen before, ” said Kevin J. Olival, a biologist and vice president of research with EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit research organization, who has tracked previous outbreaks.
While the exact path of the pathogen has not yet been established, government officials and scientists said the new contagion had ominous similarities with the outbreak of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, in late 2002, which killed nearly 800 people and sickened thousands more around the world.
Now, as the government struggles to contain public anger over the outbreak, it is facing calls to do more to regulate or even ban the sale of wildlife — and growing questions about why so little has changed in the 17 years since SARS.
That disease was ultimately traced to a coronavirus that jumped from bats to Asian palm civets, a catlike creature prized as a delicacy in southern China, and then to humans involved in the wildlife trade there. According to officials and scientists, the new virus also appears to have originated in bats and made the jump to another mammal, though which one is not yet clear.
The latest outbreak — the scope of which is still unfolding — has led to calls inside and outside of China for better regulations or even an end to this kind of culinary adventurism. While turtle and boar meat are not uncommon in Chinese restaurants, game meats such as civet cats, snakes or pangolins tend to be considered specialties only in some regions. Their consumption is driven as much by the desire to flaunt wealth as by a mix of superstition and belief about the health benefits of wildlife.
Once the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was identified as the most likely source of this outbreak in December, the authorities promptly closed it, though it was not clear what happened to the animals that had been for sale there. Officials announced only on Wednesday that they had banned the sale of wild animals throughout the province. Two other provinces, Henan and Inner Mongolia, also imposed suspensions on the trade this past week.
On Friday, officials from three national agencies announced tighter controls, including a suspension nationally of the sale and transport of animals possibly linked to the new coronavirus. The statement specified only badgers and bamboo rats, a species of rodent found in southern China that lives in ( and eats) bamboo thickets. Both had been advertised for sale in the market in Wuhan.
The flurry of government action came after an unusual outpouring of public sentiment against the trade of live animals. A campaign on Weibo, the social media platform, drew 45 million views with the hashtag # rejectgamemeat.
“ Eating game does not cure impotence or have healing powers, ” Jin Sichen, a television presenter in Nanjing, a city in southeastern China, wrote on his Weibo page on Wednesday. “ Game not only doesn’ t cure disease, it can also make you, your family, friends and even more people sick. ”
“ One must be mentally sick to eat game in order to show off and flaunt, ” Mr. Jin added.
A group of 19 Chinese scholars also called on the government to do more to regulate the trade and the public to stop eating wild animals.
The Wildlife Conservation Society, an advocacy organization based in New York, called for a global ban on the commercial sale of wildlife, especially in markets like those in China, saying that the latest outbreak proved the public health threat.
Christian Walzer, the organization’ s executive director of health, said that the astonishing diversity of wild animals in markets like these, packed in small cages in crowded market stalls, created a perfect laboratory for the unintentional incubation of new viruses that can enter human cells. Viruses can be spread through saliva, blood or feces.
“ Each animal is a package of pathogens, ” he said in a telephone interview.
But some Chinese consumers ascribe traditional medicinal benefits to the animals. Vendors and even officials in state news media have touted wildlife as alternative sources of protein and sources of revenue in impoverished regions.
An article by the Xinhua news agency last fall, for example, said that farming bamboo rats was helping to lift people out of poverty in Guangxi, another southern province.
Worries about meat supplies surged last year over the outbreak of African swine fever, which led to the killing of 40 percent of the country’ s pigs. Production of domesticated livestock on the country’ s farms is, compared to the sale of wildlife, subjected to far more regulation and inspection. Outbreaks still occur, but they are identified more quickly.
Part of the problem with the wildlife trade is that there is far less regulation, despite the greater risk of live animals’ infecting each other and people, especially in markets that can be unsanitary.
Mr. Walzer said that one problem with the legal production of some species is that it can blur the lines between those raised in captivity and those captured in the wild, where unknown viruses have existed for years without contact with humans.
“ It’ s a public health hazard, not only in China but everywhere, ” he said.
At the peak of the SARS outbreak in 2003, the authorities banned the sale of civets and culled the existing stocks, but within months they ended the ban and trade had resumed as before.
“ It is driven by interests, ” Qin Xiaona, president of the Capital Animal Welfare Association, an advocacy organization in Beijing, said of the current outbreak. “ Many people profit from the wildlife trade today. ”
The trafficking of some wildlife is prohibited, including endangered pangolins, which are prized for their scales and meat, but China’ s National Forestry and Grassland Administration allows people to raise 54 different animals, birds, reptiles and insects, including muskrat, chipmunks, ostriches, emus and centipedes.
Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
On Taobao, a popular Chinese online shopping platform, all manner of live wildlife can be had. A baby badger costs 1,300 renminbi, or $ 187. A farmer from Hunan, the province directly south of Hubei, sells civets, the source of SARS, for the equivalent of $ 215 each — discounted to $ 200 if one buys 500 or more.
At the sprawling, semi-enclosed market in Langfang, an electronics manufacturing hub south of Beijing, one vendor advertised a live crocodile ( $ 550) and a porcupine ( $ 115).
In Wuhan, the authorities have not given details about all the animals that were on sale in the market linked to the new coronavirus. People on social media circulated a photograph of a price list for a variety of animals purported to be sold by a vendor in the market, but its authenticity could not be confirmed.
According to a medical blog posted on WeChat, the health authorities in Wuhan visited the market in September and inspected eight vendors selling frogs, snakes and hedgehogs, among other animals. All were licensed to sell wildlife, and no violations were found.
Despite the spread of the virus around the country, a Hong Kong television network, I-Cable News Channel, found scores of wild animals still for sale on Wednesday at a market in Qingyuan, a city in Guangdong, the province where SARS originated.
The epidemic has now put sellers on the defensive.
“ Are you sure it is eating wild animals that has caused the epidemic? ” said Zheng Ming, the sales manager of a company selling animals in Yichang, a city 180 miles west of Wuhan. Until the ban on sales announced this past week, he sold porcupines, civets, guinea pigs and bamboo rats among others.
“ We observe the law, ” he said. “ This is a completely legal business. ”
James Gorman contributed reporting from New York. Zoe Mou in Beijing and Claire Fu in Chengdu contributed research. | business |
What it will take to stop the Wuhan coronavirus ( opinion) | So, as I read the first reports of a cluster of animal-market related illnesses, with the first patient exhibiting symptoms of pneumonia as early as December 12, 2019, I had a chilling sense of déjà vu. By New Year's Eve, it was obvious something akin to SARS -- as it turns out, the Wuhan coronavirus is in the same family of viruses as SARS and MERS ( Middle East respiratory syndrome) -- was unfolding in China.
The mysterious pneumonia virus that emerged from a live animal market in China's central city of Wuhan last month has now infected far too many people, over far too vast a geographic area, to be easily controlled.
The Wuhan coronavirus -- part of a family of viruses that are common among animals and can cause fever as well as respiratory symptoms when transmitted to humans -- has been found in cities all over China, and travelers have since spread the virus to several countries, including Singapore, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
The first American case -- involving a man in his 30s who recently traveled to Wuhan -- was confirmed outside Seattle on January 21, before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday a second case in Chicago. As of Friday, at least 41 people have died from the illness.
I warned that China appeared to be taking more aggressive steps shutting down social media posts, arresting people accused of spreading `` rumors '' and capping the flow of information about the outbreak than it was halting the transmission of the virus. For more than a week, the reported number of cases barely changed after local authorities shut down the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, the putative source of the virus. And authorities insisted the cause was neither SARS, nor similar viruses like the flu, avian flu, or MERS.
They also repeatedly stated that there was no evidence of human-to-human spread of the disease ( which turned out to be false), leading the World Health Organization and outside world to believe that closing the live animal market effectively brought the outbreak to a halt.
As recently as January 18, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted stern warnings against paying heed to `` rumors '' and insisted there were no cases of the disease in hospitals outside of Wuhan, adding that the outbreak was `` preventable and controllable. ''
But we now know that was far from true.
Officially, there are more than 1,000 cases of the Wuhan coronavirus. Unofficially, however, the toll is likely to be far higher, and more than 20 Chinese cities have reported cases of the coronavirus.
Separate studies from London's Imperial College and Hong Kong University Medical School estimated that some 1,300 to 1,700 people were infected during the first week of January, when Chinese officials reported just a handful of cases and downplayed the epidemic's severity. This week, the Imperial College team estimated that there were a total of 4,000 cases ( with the possibility of up to 9,700 cases in the worst-case scenario) by January 18, when the official tally was still at 62 cases.
Using a different statistical method, scientists at Northeastern University in Boston reckon that 5,900 were infected by January 23.
Despite the wide disparity in the figures, this new epidemic seems poised to eclipse the scale of the 2003 SARS epidemic, and is already well outside of the reach of simple control measures.
Hong Kong University virologist Guan Yi, who was part of the team that discovered the SARS virus, tells the Washington Post that the epidemic is so out of control now that `` a bigger outbreak is certain. '' He said that even with a conservative estimate, the outbreak could be 10 times bigger than the SARS epidemic -- with a reach of more than 80,000 cases.
Speaking on background, other SARS veterans tell me there may already be `` many thousands '' of infected individuals in China.
Because authorities initially downplayed the seriousness of the outbreak instead of implementing swift control measures, people have traveled to and from Wuhan -- a major transportation hub with a population of 11 million people -- and unwittingly carried the virus with them.
Chinese authorities have shut down flights, ferries, highways, and trains leaving Wuhan, as well as public transportation within the city. Twelve other cities in China have issued travel restrictions in an unprecedented move to contain the virus just days before the Lunar New Year on January 25, which usually ushers the largest human migration on earth, with hundreds of millions of people traveling to see relatives.
Following my January 8 claim that the Chinese government was covering up a significant epidemic, pressure mounted from United Nations agencies, Ministries of Health worldwide and the scientific community. Finally, Wuhan provincial communist party chief Jiang Chaoliang, and his counterparts in neighboring districts, came under veiled criticism from President Xi Jinping who ordered Party leaders to `` put people's safety and health as the top priority and take effective measures to curb the spread of the virus. ''
On January 20, China's National Health Commission designated the new disease a Class B infection, although it was treating the virus as a Class A infection -- meaning mandatory quarantines and community lockdowns may be used to stop its spread.
And the following day, the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission posted on social media that, `` Anyone who puts the face of politicians before the interests of the people will be the sinner of a millennium to the party and the people. '' The commentary also warned that `` anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of cases out of his or her own self-interest will be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity '' and stressed that transparency was the best defense against rumors and widespread fear.
Not surprisingly, reported numbers of cases from all over China jumped dramatically after Xi's speech and subsequent pressure from Beijing. This has confused matters considerably, making it impossible to tell how much of the soaring epidemic toll is due to a surge in actual new infections, versus release of case numbers that local authorities had been covering up.
Worse, despite calls for openness, SARS hero Dr. Zhong Nanshan, who was celebrated for his 2003 efforts, gave a televised interview on January 20 in which he warned that 14 healthcare workers were infected in Wuhan, the risk to medical personnel is acute, and severity of threat will rise if the virus mutates. Zhong, who had initially made several appearances on Chinese television, has not been featured on broadcasts in recent days, with some speculating that the government is now silencing him.
But Zhong's warning represented sound science. As the leading Chinese virology team wrote, after comparing the genetics and proteins of the new virus and SARS, `` the Wuhan nCoV poses a significant public health risk for human transmission, '' because it -- like SARS -- has the ability to bind to a protein found on the surface of most human lung cells. `` People also need to be reminded that risk and dynamic of cross-species or human-to-human transmission of coronaviruses are also affected by many other factors, '' like the host's immune response, the speed with which the viruses can multiply inside human lungs, and the potential mutations that might make the virus more virulent or transmissible.
Regardless of how transparent Beijing may now become, what I witnessed tracking SARS across Hong Kong and China, and subsequent investigations of sites hit by the disease in Hanoi, Bangkok, Singapore, Toronto and Hong Kong augurs poorly for this new viral epidemic and China's ability to bring it to a rapid resolution.
While 17 years has brought significant improvements in virology, diagnostics development, international health regulations and the WHO, and we know more today about the nCoV2019 virus ( as the Wuhan coronavirus is awkwardly dubbed) than we did one month into the SARS epidemic, there is no magic wand that can wave this highly dispersed, airborne-spread, human-to-human transmitting microbe away.
After the initial coverup, Beijing is now executing the playbook that ultimately stopped SARS. The city of Wuhan is now on lockdown and fever checkpoints are operating in most major transit hubs across the country while Lunar New Year celebrations have been canceled. Instant contagious quarantine 1,000-bed facilities are under construction, with one due to open next week outside Wuhan. One key step -- closing all live animal markets nationwide -- has not yet been implemented.
I discovered in 2003 that wildlife dealers and animal breeders sell their living creatures all over the country, so that an infected animal in one city's market may well have a counterpart from the same dealer, on sale in another market hundreds of miles away. It is not yet known what beast was the source of nCoV2019, though one study suggests, based on genetic analysis of the virus, that it came from a snake. The SARS virus was transmitted to restaurant workers who bought and slaughtered live civets -- raccoon-like animals in a Guangzhou live animal market, which I investigated before authorities shut it down.
Like the Guangzhou market, Wuhan's Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market sells a vast range of animals, including civets as well as other exotic wild animals. All live animal markets throughout China and neighboring Asian countries should be shut down immediately, and not reopen until the source of the nCoV2019 epidemic is identified. Until then, it should be assumed that any live animals sold in markets from Hanoi, Vietnam, to Ulan Bator, Mongolia, might be dangerous to hold, slaughter or consume.
To stop the SARS epidemic in 2003, governments, hospitals and public health authorities resorted to measures that mirrored infection control in the early 20th century, focusing on taking temperatures to find individuals with fevers, and then placing those people -- regardless of the causes of their febrile states -- in mandatory quarantine. Eventually, with the feverish souls separated from the rest of humanity, the virus stopped spreading. By June 2003 the Chinese government was able to declare victory over SARS, eight months after the virus first emerged.
Here is what it will take, then, to stop the Wuhan virus.
First, the flow of people who are infected has to stop and transportation across the entirety of China must be monitored or restricted. The Wuhan animal market from which nCoV2019 arose is located less than 0.5 miles from one of the city's train stations, where several high-speed rails stop. It must be assumed that people, and their live animals, walked that short distance earlier this month to take the trains -- possibly carrying the virus with them to cities across China.
A post from Wuhan Railway that has since been deleted said 300,000 people traveled out of Wuhan by train on Wednesday. It is imperative that the tough lockdown measures unfolding this week presage nationwide travel restrictions.
During the SARS epidemic, a brave military physician leaked medical documents to Time magazine, providing proof that SARS patients were secretly being treated in People's Liberation Army facilities in Beijing. Once word was out, I watched as tens of thousands of Beijing residents climbed onto trains, fleeing the city -- and taking SARS to every corner of the country.
After the exodus from Beijing in 2003, authorities erected fever check stations in every air, bus and train terminal in China, and placed policed health stations along the nation's highways. Fever-check stations were so abundant that I was typically tested 10 to 12 times a day in Beijing, and every 10 to 20 miles while driving on major highways.
The Chinese government has started erecting a network of fever stations in transit hubs, and I expect this will ramp up considerably over the coming week. Social media posts already show several photos and videos of officials erecting roadblocks, barricades, and traffic diversions to police-manned fever stations and similar measures reminiscent of what I witnessed in 2003.
Currently, family members of known nCoV2019 patients are tested for infection and placed under surveillance. Chinese authorities are already tracking hundreds of close contacts of known patients, and this will escalate radically over coming days. Apartment complexes and hotels that are known to have housed a nCoV2019-infected person will also be scoured.
There must also be a safe place to quarantine people who are running temperatures. In 2003 I watched in frank astonishment as teams of Chinese workers erected entire hospitals -- complete with air filters, special sewage systems and electricity -- in just days, province-by-province. A similar effort is now underway in Wuhan.
By far the most important measures to stop the Wuhan coronavirus will be those related to hospitals and how well medical teams can contain the virus. Both MERS and SARS spread like wildfire through unprepared medical facilities, regardless of the comparative wealth and sophistication of the hospitals. Most of the SARS cases in Hong Kong went to two hospitals: one had just a single healthcare worker infected, while the other suffered terrible losses in both health workers and patients who were being treated for other medical ailments.
The key difference? The teams in the better hospital had years of infection control training, which taught staff to work in teams and make sure that any contaminated protective gear was safely removed without contact with the skin, face, eyes or hands.
Over the last few days, many Chinese social media users have posted dramatic videos and photos of over-crowded hospital emergency room facilities, in which frantic patients and family members are crammed together and healthcare workers are hard-pressed to control the influx, as the infectious spread of the virus is surely occurring. In the SARS epidemic, hospitals eventually realized the need to set up fever check stations outside the facilities, screening would-be patients, and ushering febrile individuals into an entry separate from other hospital admissions.
In Toronto and Singapore, which have remarkably good healthcare systems and state-of-the-art facilities, hospital workers struggled mightily to stop spread of SARS, and healthcare workers who were infected died. In some of my discussions with physicians and nurses that went through the SARS nightmares, I have learned that the wealthier facilities were, perhaps, at greater risk because they had more equipment and procedures to apply to patients, including intubation and lavage, which was used to remove fluids from the lungs that built up in response to infection.
When SARS hit Hanoi, patients were originally taken to the prestigious French Hospital, where modern interventions were used, but the virus readily spread, taking the lives of doctors and nurses. When patients were moved to the far less sophisticated Bach Mai Hospital, which lacked some of the more advanced equipment, windows were open due to a lack of air conditioning.
According to some of the doctors, this slowed the spread of the virus by preventing it from adhering to surfaces and people in the hospital.
China is likely to take a serious economic hit as a result of the nCoV2019 virus. The SARS epidemic cost the global economy $ 54 billion, according to a World Bank estimate, and the Wuhan coronavirus is likely to affect Chinese tourism and trade. Seventeen years after SARS, China -- now the second largest economy in the world -- is likely to experience a higher scale of costs and burdens to execute nationwide containment strategy. But Beijing has no choice. The virus is already everywhere. | business |
Central Texas: Medical supply stores running out of medical masks, following possible case of coronavirus | Stores around the Brazos Valley, where the university is located, say they are completely out of medical masks, according to CNN affiliate KBTX.
The student has experienced symptoms of an upper respiratory virus and went to a local hospital Wednesday evening. A sample has been sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing, according to the Brazos County Health Authority.
Results are expected over the weekend or Monday, the authority said. The student is being kept isolated at home until the testing is complete.
Genese Smith, who works at MediCare Equipment in Bryan, Texas, just a few miles from campus, told KBTX that the story typically stocks about 50 masks.
But on Thursday, just a day after the student checked into the hospital, multiple people came into the store looking to buy masks.
`` Within about 30 minutes of word getting out, we started getting phone calls asking if we have the masks, what kind of masks did we have, and how many we had available, '' Smith told KBTX. `` Quite a few people started coming in, asking, and purchasing. ''
The store has already ordered more masks, Smith said. Other stores in the area, including Texas A & M's own Health Services Department, say they're awaiting shipments of more masks after quickly running out, KBTX reported.
Two confirmed cases of coronavirus in US so far
Wuhan coronavirus, a virus similar to SARS and MERS, first appeared last month in Wuhan, China, but has quickly spread across the world, reaching as far as France and the US. As of Friday, at least 41 people in mainland China have died from the virus, where there are more than 1,300 cases reported so far.
Two cases of coronavirus have been confirmed so far in the US, one in Chicago and one in Washington state. The World Health Organization recommends avoiding close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness, like coughing and sneezing.
Scientists believe this coronavirus started in another animal and spread to humans, so health officials recommend laying off the rare steak or runny yolks, and thoroughly cooking meat and eggs.
But, in general, the public should do `` what you do every cold and flu season, '' said Dr. John Wiesman, the health secretary in Washington state, where the first US case of Wuhan coronavirus was confirmed. Wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze, and stay home from work when you are sick. | business |
HK leader declares virus emergency, halts official visits to mainland China | Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam declared a virus emergency on Saturday, announcing measures to limit links with mainland China and prevent the spread of the new coronavirus.
Flights and high speed rail trips between Hong Kong and Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, will be halted. Schools that are currently on Lunar New Year holidays will remain closed until Feb. 17 and education authorities have asked universities to extend leave for students.
Hong Kong’ s health authorities have confirmed 5 coronavirus cases, all linked to Wuhan, with a further 122 people being treated as suspected of having the disease.
Lam said all official visits to the mainland and official Lunar New Year celebrations would be scrapped immediately. But she rejected calls for a temporary ban on all arrivals from the mainland and said it would be impractical to shut down all border crossings with the mainland.
Lam also said she had sought assistance from China’ s State Council to ensure there were adequate supplies of masks.
Lam is dealing with the health issue as she faces broader tensions after seven months of sometimes violent anti-government protests.
“ I hereby urge all citizens stay united to fight against the epidemic to protect all Hong Kong people’ s health and safety, ” she said.
The demonstrations have centred on Hong Kong’ s relationship with mainland China: some protesters have railed against growing interference from Beijing while others have expressed concern over greater integration with the mainland.
Beijing denies meddling and blames the West for stirring trouble in the former British colony.
Lam, speaking hours after returning from the World Economic Forum in Davos, insisted Saturday’ s announcement was not delayed due to her trip, saying she had stayed in close touch with officials while in Switzerland.
The first case in Hong Kong of the new coronavirus was confirmed on Wednesday, a 39-year-old man visiting from Wuhan who crossed by high-speed rail from neighbouring Shenzhen.
The condition of one of the people confirmed with the virus deteriorated on Saturday and the patient was now on a respirator, Hong Kong’ s government funded broadcaster RTHK reported.
Hong Kong earlier deployed temperature screening equipment at the airport and the high-speed rail station. Air and train passengers are required to fill in health declaration forms at the border while isolation wards have been set-up in hospitals.
Many people are using masks in offices and on public transport, a reflection of the city’ s strong memories of an earlier coronavirus crisis.
Gabriel Leung, the dean of the medical school of Hong Kong University, urged the public to increase its already-substantial wearing of glasses.
“ The short-sighted rate in Hong Kong is the highest in the world. So, mostly everyone has small protection - glasses, ” he said, urging others to wear glasses too.
“ This is not a perfect measure, but can let you prevent from the droplet transmission to a certain extent, ” Leung said.
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses named because of crown-like spikes on their surfaces. The viruses cause respiratory illnesses ranging from the common cold to the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS).
Hong Kong was badly hit by the SARS virus in 2003 and has had many episodes of H5N1 bird flu for more than a decade. According to WHO figures, 1,755 people in Hong Kong contracted the SARS virus at the time and 299 died.
Reporting By Felix Tam, Jessie Pang, Scott Murdoch and Marius Zaharia; Writing by Greg Torode; Editing by Michael Perry and Frances Kerry | business |
What's changed between the 2003 SARS outbreak and the current Wuhan coronavirus | In the Chinese city of Wuhan, some 1,000 kilometers ( 620 miles) from the origin of the outbreak, Li -- then a 15-year-old high school student -- was cramming for exams.
Classes were running, but students were told they couldn't go home between their afternoon and evening classes, so parents clustered outside the school gate to pass boxes of food to their children.
Li, not his real name, said his school smelled of vinegar, due to a belief that vinegar fumes would help prevent the spread of disease.
CNN agreed to Li's request not to publish his name -- he's now an academic and fears any perceived criticism of the government could damage his career.
For Li, SARS didn't feel like something he was going to catch himself.
Back then, there were no high-speed trains linking Wuhan with other cities, and the southern province of Guangdong, where the outbreak started, felt very far away. Some people wore masks, others didn't.
Almost two decades later, Asia is on the brink of another pandemic, say experts. For many, it feels eerily similar to the SARS outbreak that infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 around the world between November 2002 and July 2003. SARS is also a type of coronavirus, which causes flu-like symptoms, and can mutate as it spreads from person to person.
In the past month, at least 41 people have died and more than a thousand people have been diagnosed as infected by the Wuhan coronavirus, a cousin of SARS. Cases have been reported in a number of countries, including the United States, France, and Singapore.
Transport is on lockdown in Wuhan -- a city of 11 million and the epicenter of the virus -- and in 10 nearby cities. This is all happening at the worst possible time of year: Lunar New Year, the most significant holiday in the Chinese calendar, when three billion trips were expected to be made.
Even before Wuhan closed train stations and airports, Li -- who is now 31 and working in Macao -- decided, for the first time in his adult life, not to go home for Lunar New Year, which is also known in the mainland as Spring Festival. He worries for his family's health, but says there's little he personally can do.
`` I would hope the government learned a lesson from what happened 17 years ago, '' said Li. `` It seems like they are taking the issue seriously, but I am not sure if it is a little bit too late. ''
Six weeks into the outbreak, there are signs that China is handling this outbreak differently. But there's still concern over China's response -- and just how transparent Beijing is being.
What went wrong during SARS
In the first few months of the 2003 SARS outbreak, China kept the disease under wraps.
SARS was first publicly reported in February 2003, but by that time the country was already months into an outbreak. Five people had died and another 300 had fallen ill from the disease in Guangdong province.
In April 2003, a prominent doctor in Beijing went on the record to accuse the government of a cover-up. Later that month, China sacked its health minister and the mayor of Beijing over their mishandling of the outbreak.
And it wasn't until April -- around five months after the outbreak started -- that American and Canadian scientists announced they had sequenced the genome thought to be the cause of the SARS virus.
The lack of transparency from China, combined with a lack of knowledge about what the virus was and a lack of preparedness among countries in the region in dealing with pandemics, all contributed to SARS's deadly impact.
In semi-autonomous Hong Kong, over 280 people died from SARS -- the highest proportion of death per capita of any territory in the world.
`` The outbreak was very, very difficult to control. At that time, we had no idea what caused the pandemic, '' said Ivan Hung, a specialist in infectious disease at Hong Kong University. `` We were not able to get on top of things and able to make early diagnosis and isolation as a result. There was a lot of cross infection that happened in the hospital. ''
SARS also exposed how ill-prepared China and other territories were at responding to pandemics. In a paper published soon after the epidemic was contained, Hong Kong's former Director of Health Lee Shiu-hung pointed to a number of issues facing the city, including a lack of protective clothing for medical staff, ill-prepared hospital authorities, and basic failings in the healthcare system, like overcrowded wards and poor ventilation.
As Hung puts it, last time around, public health authorities were `` playing catch up. ''
Grace -- a 37-year-old Hong Konger -- was interning at a hotel at the time, and remembers the fear. At her hotel, everyone wore a mask, and people cleaned their hands and phones before starting work.
`` Everyone was worried because nobody knew how serious it was. Everybody had to wear masks wherever they go. Business was not good as well, '' said Grace, who asked CNN not to use her last name out of concern for the impact of her current job. `` People preferred to stay at home if they didn't have to go to work or school. ''
A different China
In the six weeks since the first case of Wuhan coronavirus was detected, it's already clear that today's China isn't the same as the China of 2003.
China informed the World Health Organization about the new virus on December 31, 2019, less than three weeks after the first case was detected on December 12. The virus behind the outbreak was identified on January 7 -- as swift as any other developed country would have been able to identify it, said Ian Lipkin, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University who worked to contain SARS back in 2003.
The prompt identification of the new strain allowed other countries to develop tests for the virus early on that should help contain the outbreak, said Peter Daszak, the president of non-profit EcoHealth Alliance, which researches emerging infectious diseases.
Experts have also praised China for being transparent about the outbreak -- something the country was criticized for last time. Many are also impressed with China's unprecedented decision this week to stop transport to and from Wuhan during the country's biggest holiday. `` SARS was a huge embarrassment to China, and that's been driving a lot of the openness and transparency around this outbreak, '' Daszak said.
There are other things, too, that should make this outbreak easier to contain than SARS 17 years ago.
China and other Asian countries have stepped up their ability to respond to pandemics. Chinese residents are also more aware of how to protect themselves from the spread of disease, Lipkin said. Face masks are now mandatory in Wuhan, but before that, online sales surged, China Daily reported.
That's also true in Hong Kong. For almost eight months, face masks have been closely associated with the ongoing pro-democracy protest movement. But over the past few weeks, more and more people have been wearing surgical masks in public -- for health reasons. For many, SARS taught them how to respond to the risk of disease.
Surgical masks are now ubiquitous on the subway, and Hong Kong is facing a serious shortage of face masks, according to Horace Lau, the vice president of Hong Kong's General Chamber of Pharmacy.
Grace said she started wearing a mask weeks ago.
`` Since SARS took place in 2003, people in Hong Kong are more conscious about health and how to protect themselves, '' she said.
What hasn't changed
But while China has undoubtedly been more communicative about the Wuhan coronavirus, there's still lingering distrust.
In 2003, then 15-year-old Li didn't think to question the authorities. Now, as an academic living outside mainland China's censorship, Li believes the Chinese government doesn't trust its people to handle the full truth.
`` ( It's this) sort of idea of 'we have to control the scale of the panic instead of the scale of disease, '' he said. `` I can only hope that... they can act better and they can respond quickly instead of keeping people in the dark. ''
On Wednesday, a senior US State Department official said the US was concerned about the Chinese government's transparency.
`` I do believe that the concern you see both inside China and internationally is a reflection of what we 've seen in the past, '' the official said. `` That reluctance to respond in a rapid manner doesn't give the global community a secure feeling for this being managed inside China. ''
However, on Friday President Donald Trump said on Twitter that China `` had been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus '' and thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping.
`` The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi! '' Trump tweeted.
Last weekend, Imperial College London found that an estimated 1,723 people were likely to have been infected by the virus by January 12, significantly more than the 45 confirmed cases around the time the study was released. On Monday, Chinese authorities reported that the number of cases had tripled over the weekend to 218.
Those figures worried some people, but Daszak points out that there are always going to be more people infected than we know about -- not everyone's symptoms are serious enough for them to seek medical attention. Lipkin agrees, saying that authorities are likely being cautious about reporting numbers as it is winter -- a season when people often get flu and pneumonia anyway.
Online, numerous people claim to have been turned away from Wuhan's hospitals. Although CNN has not been able to verify individual claims, Wuhan's health authority acknowledged in a statement that local hospitals were overwhelmed. Officials said the situation would improve as more medical facilities were set aside for the detection and treatment of the virus. According to state media reports, Wuhan plans to build a new hospital in six days.
There's also more to be done to address a major issue: live animal markets.
The coronavirus that caused SARS was traced to the civet cat, a wild animal considered a delicacy in parts of south China. After the outbreak in 2003, China banned the slaughter and consumption of civet cats.
This time around, it's believed the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak started in the now-shuttered Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, where a number of wild animals were for sale, including raccoon dogs and snakes. Experts believe that the coronavirus was carried by animals -- possibly snakes -- and then spread to humans.
Although China bans the trafficking of some wild animals, it is still widely seen as the world's largest market for illicit wildlife products. Experts say markets that sell wild animals need to be banned.
`` It places the whole world at risk. And I don't think we can allow these to continue. The risk is just too great, '' Lipkin said.
Daszak added that countries need to take more preventative measures to stop pandemics.
`` We should treat pandemics a bit like smoking or heart disease, '' he said. `` We spend billions of dollars once they emerge to control an outbreak, but we should also start spending money before they emerge to stop them spilling over to people. ''
Is this SARS all over again?
There's reason to think that the current coronavirus outbreak won't have the same impact as SARS did in 2003.
For now, the virus doesn't seem as deadly. As of Thursday, Daszak estimated that it had a 3.5% mortality rate -- the WHO estimates that SARS had a fatality ratio of 14% to 15%.
This time around, we know what the disease is, and there are potential vaccines that can be trialed, Daszak said. Health authorities are also better prepared, says Hung, who doesn't think that this outbreak will be as bad as SARS.
But authorities also face new difficulties. This outbreak coincides with the Lunar New Year, and in the past 17 years, China has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic travel.
China's expansive trade network means the virus could spread to places like Africa, where testing might not be so intensive, Daszak said. Even in more developed countries, identifying people who were potentially infected still largely depends on them self-reporting their symptoms -- something some people just won't do.
At the moment, the disease hasn't become a super-spreader like SARS. If a disease is a super-spreader, it means that one person infects many people. There has been one report of a single patient infecting 14 health care workers, but no other similar cases have been reported.
But if the virus evolves to become a super-spreader, Daszak said that would `` basically be a repeat of SARS. ''
`` It's beginning to look more and more like SARS every day, '' Daszak said, adding that the decision to shut down Wuhan suggested the authorities know something about the way the disease spreads that isn't good news.
Whether this epidemic turns into SARS or not depends on how the disease evolves -- and how well public health authorities manage to contain it, he said.
`` Right now, we are on the cusp of what could be a repeat of the SARS pandemic. '' | business |
Coronavirus Exposes Core Flaws, and Few Strengths, in China’ s Governance | It was the initial news reports that first suggested China’ s political system might be getting in the way of its ability to confront the coronavirus outbreak.
The outbreak seemed to already be a full-blown crisis, infecting dozens in China and even some abroad, by the time it became widely reported.
This seeming delay was of a familiar pattern in China, one suggesting that local officials may have played down early warning signs or simply did not coordinate enough to see the problem’ s scope.
While outsiders might suspect an attempted cover-up as the cause, experts see something much more worrying: weaknesses at the very heart of the Chinese system.
Its rigidly hierarchical bureaucracy discourages local officials from raising bad news with central bosses whose help they might need. And it silos those officials off from one another, making it harder to see, much less manage, the full scope of spiraling crises.
“ That’ s why you never really hear about problems emerging on a local scale in China, ” said John Yasuda, who studies China’ s approach to health crises at Indiana University. “ By the time that we hear about it, and that the problem reaches the central government, it’ s because it’ s become a huge problem. ”
While much remains unknown about the outbreak, a common theme is emerging.
Any political system is better at solving some problems than others. But the coronavirus, like other health crises before it, is bringing out some of the deepest flaws and contradictions in a Chinese system that, for all its historic feats, remains a work in progress.
Those flaws, which have long frustrated Chinese leaders, appear to have played a role in everything from the pace at which officials responded to the coronavirus outbreak, to China’ s yearslong inability to address the health risks that experts have long warned could lead to an outbreak just like this one.
While the country is now mobilizing a nationwide response — one of the system’ s strengths — the incident is already a lesson in the political weak points that can bring grave consequences for China and, as infections spread, the world.
“ When you look at the coronavirus, it looks a lot like what happened with SARS. It involves a very similar template, ” Mr. Yasuda said.
The SARS epidemic, which killed hundreds of people in 2002 and 2003, initially spread unchecked when local Chinese officials minimized early reports.
Their fear was not public unrest, it later emerged, but getting in trouble with the party bosses who controlled their careers.
Guan Yi, a professor of infectious diseases in Hong Kong who helped identify SARS, has accused Chinese authorities of once more delaying action, including by obstructing his own efforts to investigate the outbreak.
“ This is a continuous theme in central-local relations in China. You do not want to be the one to bring bad news, ” said Vivienne Shue, a prominent China scholar at Oxford University.
That gulf between central leaders in Beijing and local officials who run the country day-to-day, Ms. Shue said, is “ the core conundrum in how that system works. ”
It leads officials on both sides of the center-local divide “ to do many counterproductive, irrational things, ” she said, in their efforts to manage and manipulate one another.
That has included holding back reports of potential crises, in the hopes of solving things without the bosses finding out.
At the same time, China’ s quasi-imperial system leaves the top party bosses in Beijing with little direct power over what happens in the provinces — policy proclamations are sometimes ignored or defied — other than promoting or punishing subordinates.
The two ends of the system are engaged in a constant push-pull dynamic, putting them occasionally at odds — particularly in moments of crisis, when each is looking to blame the other.
This has been an issue throughout China’ s modern history, Ms. Shue said, with power fluctuating between the center and the periphery. Xi Jinping, China’ s current leader, has sought to centralize power, setting up Beijing-based working groups to exert more control outside the capital.
But the system’ s underlying contradiction remains. Mr. Xi’ s tightening grip may make local leaders all the more wary of releasing information that could invite his wrath.
As China modernizes, integrating its once-disparate provinces and cities, local mistakes can become national crises before Beijing is even aware that something has happened, as may have happened with the coronavirus outbreak.
“ As logistics and the distribution systems have expanded, you really see how the local and national have been linked together, ” Mr. Yasuda said, referring to the hastening rate at which health, environmental and economic crises can now spread.
That is not all downside. The central government has enormous capacity to mobilize in a crisis, as it is doing now, locking down several major cities to slow the disease’ s spread.
“ Once a clear problem has emerged, it’ s very good at diverting resources, ” Mr. Yasuda said of China’ s political system. “ But it’ s not good at dealing with emerging problems. So it’ s built to be reactive instead of proactive. ”
In some ways, China’ s system has been a source of strength.
Party bosses set priorities, then reward the institutions and officials who best carry them out.
And since the days of Mao Zedong, China has operated under a system known as fragmented authoritarianism, in which even the most local leaders have near-absolute authority over their remit.
That has led to a culture of what Elizabeth J. Perry, a Harvard University scholar, has called “ guerrilla governance, ” in which results take precedence over procedure or accountability, and in which it is all leaders for themselves.
Updated May 20, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Over 38 million people have filed for unemployment since March. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $ 40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $ 100,000, a Fed official said.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
There is an uptick in people reporting symptoms of chilblains, which are painful red or purple lesions that typically appear in the winter on fingers or toes. The lesions are emerging as yet another symptom of infection with the new coronavirus. Chilblains are caused by inflammation in small blood vessels in reaction to cold or damp conditions, but they are usually common in the coldest winter months. Federal health officials do not include toe lesions in the list of coronavirus symptoms, but some dermatologists are pushing for a change, saying so-called Covid toe should be sufficient grounds for testing.
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’ t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.
This approach is seen as crucial in having enabled China to lift hundreds of millions of citizens out of poverty and turn itself from global backwater into world power.
But it can be disastrous when it comes to managing health and environmental issues.
Disease and pollution don’ t respect provincial or municipal borders. And because of the way they spread, it often takes a unified, nationwide policy to prevent or stop them — something for which guerrilla governance is ill-suited.
“ It’ s very difficult to come together to create a clear actionable plan, ” Mr. Yasuda said, adding that, for any health or environmental regulation to work, “ you want it to be standardized, you want it to be transparent, you want it to be accountable. ”
But China’ s system de-emphasizes those concerns, sometimes to disastrous effect.
In the mid-2000s, Beijing demanded a drastic increase in milk production. When factory farms were unable to meet their targets, officials conscripted vast numbers of rural farmers. Some of the farmers, struggling to meet their quotas, watered down their milk, then added an industrial chemical known as melamine to fool quality sensors. The tainted milk poisoned thousands of infants.
Experts fear a similar regulatory failure may have enabled the coronavirus outbreak: the longstanding inability to clean up so-called wet markets, which are stuffed with livestock living and dead, domesticated and wild. Though the outbreak’ s cause is still being studied, Wuhan’ s wet market is considered a prime suspect.
The markets have long been considered a major threat to public health, particularly as a vector for transmitting diseases from animals to humans. And they are a lesson in the perils of patchwork, decentralized regulations like China’ s: While some markets are more carefully policed than others, all it takes is one to cause an outbreak.
In another echo of the tainted milk scandal, top-down political priorities provide an incentive to look the other way. Taking down the markets, which are popular, would risk a public outcry. Local officials had every reason to fear that their bosses, who have not made the markets a priority, would punish them for causing trouble.
A foundational mission of any political system is to align its leaders’ incentives with the needs and desires of the wider public.
Democracies seek to do this through “ the competition of interests, ” Ms. Shue said, on the belief that inviting everyone to participate will naturally pull the system toward the common good. This system, like any, has flaws, for example by handing more power to those with more money.
Within China, Ms. Shue added, the common good “ is seen as something that should be designed from above, like a watch being engineered to run perfectly. ”
But sometimes the watch can be designed in ways that harm the public good.
In 2001, for instance, Beijing ordered provincial officials to reduce water pollution from factories. Many provinces simply moved the factories to their borders, ensuring pollutants would flow into the next district. Nationwide, water pollution worsened.
So far, the coronavirus outbreak seems to highlight both the strengths and perils of China’ s model. Beijing, apparently having learned from the SARS epidemic, has pushed for faster and more drastic action.
But the same systemic problems, from gun-shy local officials to weak health regulations, appear to be recurring as well — a reminder that the system remains, Ms. Shue said, “ a work in progress. ” | business |
Coronavirus Spurs China to Suspend Tours Abroad and Xi to Warn of a ‘ Grave Situation’ | This briefing has ended. Read about developments in the coronavirus outbreak here.
China said on Saturday that it would suspend all tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for its citizens headed overseas, starting on Monday.
The association for China’ s travel agencies said tour groups that were in the middle of their trips could proceed with their itineraries but should closely monitor the health of their travelers.
This measure may come as welcome news to countries that have been gearing up to screen travelers from China for fevers and other signs of infection.
The Beijing city government also announced on Saturday that it would suspend all inter-province buses from Sunday, effectively limiting road travel into the capital.
The measures, taken hundreds of miles from Wuhan, where the outbreak of a novel coronavirus began, were a sign that concerns over the spread of the outbreak have crept close to central government offices and the ruling Communist Party’ s seat of power.
Wuhan also tightened its restrictions further on Saturday with a ban on vehicle traffic in the city center, to begin at midnight.
The local government said some vehicles would be exempted, including shuttle buses and trucks moving supplies. Residents responded with frustration on social media. One woman, who said she was pregnant and near her due date, asked if she was supposed to walk to her gynecologist’ s office.
All the reported deaths from the outbreak have been in mainland China, but travelers have spread the virus to numerous other places. Cases have been confirmed in Australia, Malaysia, Nepal, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, France and the United States.
The authorities in Wuhan said they would also speed up the customs process for donated supplies, as hospitals in the city raise the alarm about a shortage of hospital gowns, surgical masks and other necessities.
A notice posted Saturday on the website of the city’ s customs agency said that new channels were being put in place to ensure that donations were put to immediate use. Overseas donations will be exempted from tax duties, the notice said.
During past crises, the authorities in China have been criticized for their reluctance to accept overseas assistance, apparently preferring to project a sense of control. As China has grown more affluent, it has become a provider of aid rather than a recipient, particularly to regions like Africa.
China has made exceptions during some past disasters, including a devastating earthquake centered on Sichuan Province in 2008.
On Saturday, Hong Kong’ s leader, Carrie Lam, declared a health emergency in the semiautonomous Chinese city and said schools would be closed until mid-February.
Two American universities with campuses in China also postponed their start dates. Duke Kunshan University, a partnership between Duke University in North Carolina and Wuhan University, said it would not resume classes until Feb. 17.
Classes had originally been scheduled to resume Feb. 3, after the Lunar New Year vacation. ( Duke Kunshan University is not in Wuhan, but in Jiangsu Province, more than 400 miles away.)
New York University also announced that its Shanghai campus would start its spring semester one week later than planned, at the request of municipal authorities.
Schools in Hubei Province, where Wuhan is and where the outbreak has hit the hardest, had already decided to delay the start dates at all schools, from kindergarten through college.
China on Sunday morning announced 15 more deaths from the new coronavirus, including one in Shanghai, the first to be reported so far in the metropolis.
Thirteen more deaths were also announced in Hubei Province, where the outbreak began, and one was announced in Henan Province. The latest deaths brought the toll in China to 56.
Across the country, 688 cases of the new virus were diagnosed on Saturday, the government said early Sunday.
That brings the total number of confirmed cases to 1,975. Deaths from the coronavirus had previously been reported outside of Hubei, the outbreak’ s epicenter.
But the death in Shanghai, which is among China’ s most populous cities and a major commercial hub, is likely to add to anxieties about the disease’ s spread.
Shanghai’ s municipal health commission said on Sunday that the patient who died was an 88-year-old man.
Travel restrictions in Wuhan and 12 other cities have essentially penned in 35 million people on the country’ s biggest holiday, normally a time for traveling to visit family.
Though the number of coronavirus cases and deaths is alarming, public health experts have so far warned against mass anxiety. After all, the common flu kills roughly 35,000 people a year and hospitalizes about 200,000 in the United States alone.
It is too soon to know the mortality rate of the virus in the new outbreak. But there are signs that this outbreak could be far more serious than the common flu. For one, the virus has been identified as a coronavirus, named for the spikes that protrude from its membrane. Other coronaviruses have far higher mortality rates than the common flu, and have also led to global outbreaks.
Chinese citizens are also haunted by the memory of the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003, a coronavirus outbreak that also started in China and eventually killed more than 800 people worldwide. During that epidemic, Beijing at first played down the crisis and withheld information, eventually drawing widespread criticism.
And conclusive evidence about how the outbreak started is lacking. While officials in Wuhan first traced it to a seafood market, some patients who have fallen ill never visited the market. Researchers have also offered disparate explanations for what animals may have transmitted the virus to humans.
The Chinese government has promised far more transparency than in the SARS crisis, and the World Health Organization has praised its cooperation with the scientific community.
Still, mistrust of the local and national authorities is evident on Chinese social media. And China’ s health system has already struggled under the new virus’ s strain, with hospitals in Wuhan issuing urgent requests for help and donations.
In a sign of how the spread of the coronavirus has deeply shaken China, the nation’ s top leader, Xi Jinping, convened a meeting of the Communist Party leadership on Saturday to begin an offensive to stanch the spread of the outbreak, improve treatment of victims and speed supplies to areas under lockdown.
“ We’ re sure to be able to win in this battle to beat the epidemic through prevention and control, ” Mr. Xi said, according to an official summary delivered on Chinese television.
Until now, Mr. Xi had said little publicly about the growing crisis, even as confirmed cases of infection with the new and little understood coronavirus multiplied over the past week and Wuhan — the city in central China where the virus first spread — and nearby areas came under a net of travel restrictions intended to contain the outbreak.
Mr. Xi issued brief orders about the emerging epidemic five days ago. Now, though, he has ordered mobilization across the country and drastic measures to hold back the virus, which is linked to pneumonia symptoms that can be deadly.
The China television report showed Mr. Xi speaking to the six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the Communist Party’ s topmost decision-making body, and a circle of other grave-faced officials. The leadership meeting took place on the first full day of China’ s weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, a time when the entire country, including party leaders, usually take time off for family get-togethers and relaxation.
“ Confronted with the grave situation of this accelerating spread of pneumonia from infections with the novel coronavirus, we must step up the centralized and united leadership under the party central ” leadership, Mr. Xi said.
The Communist Party will establish a top-level team, called a leadership small group, to grapple with the crisis, the meeting said, giving efforts to fight the outbreak greater urgency and centralized coordination. Here are some of the other measures and main points announced:
Mr. Xi demanded strong efforts to provide medicine and other supplies, a point of anger among many doctors and medical workers in Wuhan who have complained about a shortage of protective masks, gowns and other safety equipment.
Officials in Hubei Province, where the outbreak began, received an implicit telling off. Residents and many other Chinese people have said that officials did not respond seriously enough. Hubei, the meeting said, “ must make containment and control of the epidemic its topmost priority, adopting even stricter measures to prevent it expanding within and spreading outward. ”
The meeting called for concentrating resources, experts and treatment to cope with the surge of infections, including sending patients with serious symptoms to designated medical units. This suggests that there may be more hospitals built or modified to deal solely with the outbreak.
Local and military medical resources are to be pooled for the response.
Public spaces across China, including railway stations, airports, and ports, were told to step up measures to deter the spread of the virus, including ventilation, disinfection, and body temperature checks for people. “ When suspected cases are found they must be held for observation locally, ” the meeting ordered.
In his remarks on Saturday, Mr. Xi also seemed to address Chinese citizens’ growing dissatisfaction with the official response. On Chinese social media, users have asked whether the authorities have accurately reported the number of cases or taken enough steps to rein in their spread.
Commenters have especially condemned the perceived absence of the local, provincial and even national authorities in the heart of the outbreak. Mr. Xi had made few public remarks about the disease before Saturday, when he called for officials to “ stand at the front line to safeguard social stability. ”
“ Where is that person? He is not on the front line, ” one user wrote on Weibo, a Twitterlike platform, an apparent reference to Mr. Xi. The posts were quickly deleted.
A professor of infectious diseases in Hong Kong who helped identify SARS, Guan Yi, has accused Chinese authorities of delaying action and of obstructing his efforts to investigate the outbreak.
Local officials in China have long had incentives to avoid revealing problems that might invite the wrath of party bosses. But Mr. Xi’ s efforts to centralize power in Beijing have further weakened local authorities and increased their incentive to deny problems.
It’ s part of a longstanding pattern that can make both levels of government slow to acknowledge problems, then blame each other once a problem is revealed.
State media has maintained a steady drumbeat of positive news as the outbreak has spread, praising the sacrifices of responders and everyday people.
“ This is a continuous theme in central-local relations in China. You do not want to be the one to bring bad news, ” said Vivienne Shue, a prominent China scholar at Oxford University.
The State Department has ordered all American employees at the United States Consulate in Wuhan to leave the city, as a lockdown imposed on central China expanded, the United States Embassy said on Saturday.
It said the evacuation of its American staff members and their families was necessary because of the spreading outbreak of the coronavirus, the disruptions caused by the restrictions on transportation in Wuhan and the overwhelming of hospitals.
The evacuation order, made on Thursday, according to a statement from the United States Embassy, was a sign that the measures imposed by the Chinese authorities to try to contain the outbreak of the mysterious coronavirus may be escalating alarm and confusion.
Lines have formed at hospitals and residents have complained that the traffic restrictions have made it nearly impossible to seek timely medical help.
The United States government is arranging a charter flight to evacuate American diplomats and citizens on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the plan. The plane would likely take evacuees to the West Coast of the United States, this person said.
Medical staff would be aboard the plane to screen passengers, and evacuees who were not American diplomatic officers would be responsible for the cost of the flight, according to the person briefed on the plan.
The French Consulate in Wuhan also told its citizens on Friday that it was considering setting up bus rides for those who wished to leave the city, in cooperation with the Chinese authorities, according to France’ s Foreign Ministry.
On Saturday, Hong Kong’ s leader, Carrie Lam, declared a health emergency in the semiautonomous Chinese city and said schools would be closed until mid-February.
The city is treating five coronavirus patients connected to Wuhan, and more than 100 others are suspected of having the viral pneumonia.
Hong Kong is also suspending flights and train services to Wuhan and will cancel all Lunar New Year celebrations. The Hong Kong Marathon, originally scheduled for early February, has also been called off.
Masks and hand sanitizers have sold out in most pharmacies in the city as residents have stocked up on supplies in a panic since last week.
Yuen Kwok-yung, a leading expert in infectious diseases who discovered the agent causing the coronavirus, had called for schools and universities to remain closed beyond the Lunar New Year holiday in an effort to contain the infection’ s reach.
Recent cases have shown that people who do not show symptoms could transmit the disease, according to a study published in The Lancet on Friday of which he was a co-author.
Updated June 12, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “ very rare, ” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’ s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’ s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “ start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid, ” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “ When you haven’ t been exercising, you lose muscle mass. ” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’ t being told to stay at home, it’ s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. ( Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’ s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “ normal ” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’ t have a thermometer ( they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’ t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’ t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’ re sick and you think you’ ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’ s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’ re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’ t be able to get tested.
“ If there are local cases in Hong Kong that is not directly connected to Wuhan, this is a big issue, ” Dr. Yuen said in a phone interview. “ It would mean that this epidemic has reached another level of severity. ”
The medical journal The Lancet published a study on Friday suggesting that people infected with the coronavirus might be able to spread it even if they do not have flu symptoms.
Researchers studied a family of seven in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, five of whom had traveled to Wuhan, the center of the outbreak. Two of them came into contact with an infected relative in a hospital there. Testing conducted days later, after they flew home, found that six members of the family had the coronavirus, including one who had not gone to Wuhan.
One infected family member, a child, had no symptoms, suggesting that people with the virus might be spreading it without knowing that they have it, the study found.
“ It shows this new coronavirus is able to transfer between person to person, in a hospital setting, a family home setting, and also in an intercity setting, ” Yuen Kwok-yung, an author of the study, said in an interview. “ This is exactly what makes this new disease difficult to control. ” Dr. Yuen characterized the disease as “ asymptomatic walking pneumonia. ”
The researchers cautioned that the study was limited to early cases of the virus, and that it was difficult to assess risk factors at this stage. But they stressed the importance of quarantining patients as early as possible, given the early signs of asymptomatic transmission.
Another study in The Lancet found that symptoms of early coronavirus cases showed similarities to SARS. Those symptoms included fever, dry cough and shortness of breath.
The streets of Wuhan were largely empty on Saturday, the first full day of China’ s Lunar New Year holiday.
By contrast, the site for a new hospital to treat victims of the coronavirus was a mosh pit of activity. Earthmovers, trucks and hundreds of construction workers dug and scraped to build a new facility that, if completed within days as scheduled, could do more than treat the ailing.
The government vowed on Friday that it would finish building the hospital in 10 days, a feat recalling the SARS epidemic of 2003, when Beijing built a hospital with similar speed.
Besides treating infected people at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, the facility would also serve as a potent symbol of the government’ s drive to do what needs to be done. If Beijing built a hospital in a few short days, in other words, Wuhan can do it too.
On Saturday, officials announced that a second hospital was in the works to treat people infected by the virus. It would have a capacity for 1,300 beds. They plan to complete the facility, called Leishenshan Hospital, in 15 days.
China is virtually unsurpassed in its capacity to finish in mere months the sort of factories, bridges and other projects that could take many years in other countries. The dozens of earthmovers gouging the soil on the outskirts of Wuhan attested to that strength.
But some workers at the site of the first planned hospital, called Huoshenshan, said there was a severe need for skilled workers. Many are at home or elsewhere, to keep from catching the coronavirus.
Yuan Banfu, a worker from neighboring Henan Province, said a call had gone out on Chinese social media for volunteers to help at the site. He had proudly signed up.
“ This is the new Tangshan Hospital, ” he said, referring to the hospital that Beijing built in 2003.
Mr. Yuan, a wiry 46-year-old, said he had not been able to go home for the Lunar New Year break because the authorities had closed the routes out of Wuhan.
“ I’ m glad to be of help for the people of Wuhan, ” he said. “ My family is worried, but I told them I’ m here anyway and we have to help. ”
Some workers at the site said they had volunteered, while others said they had received calls from their employers urging them to turn up. Nearly all the workers at the site, an expanse of brown mud in the drizzling rain, wore protective masks.
“ I’ m not too scared, ” Mr. Yuan said. “ I work outdoors and my heart and lungs are strong
Officials in a southern Chinese city said on Saturday that a 2-year-old girl suffering from the coronavirus had been admitted to a hospital and was in stable condition. That would make her the youngest person confirmed to have been infected, according to a social media account run by the People’ s Daily newspaper, the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party.
Health officials in the city of Hechi, in the southern region of Guangxi, said that the girl was surnamed Zhong and lived in Wuhan. She had flown from Wuhan to the city of Nanning, which is also in Guangxi, on Tuesday. From there, she was driven to Hechi.
The next day, she developed a fever and began sneezing. She was admitted to Hechi People’ s Hospital and put in isolation, officials said. Officials did not disclose who she was traveling with or what condition they might be in.
Medical experts are watching closely to see who the coronavirus infects and who might be most vulnerable to it. Most of those killed by the coronavirus so far have been older men, many with chronic health issues. The youngest fatality disclosed so far was 36 years old.
State news media reported on Saturday that a doctor had died of a heart failure while tending to patients with the coronavirus in fever wards at a hospital in eastern China. It was unclear whether he had showed signs of the virus.
The doctor, Jiang Jianjun, who specialized in infectious diseases, suffered the heart attack on Thursday while making rounds at the fever wards in Jiangsu Taizhou People’ s Hospital, according to an online tribute posted on the hospital’ s social media account.
“ He collapsed at his beloved workplace, ” the statement read. It has since been deleted, but it said that Dr. Jiang had also treated patients during the outbreaks of the avian flu and swine flu.
News of his death, along with that of a retired physician in Wuhan who was suspected of having the virus, drew much sympathy online, even as frustration brewed over the crowds at hospitals and the shortage of supplies. Several internet users questioned whether Dr. Jiang had died of fatigue.
As footage and photos appeared to show medical workers in white coats wailing from the stress of working several consecutive shifts, many social media users used forums to accuse the government of failing to provide adequate support to physicians working on the front lines of the outbreak.
Many also blamed officials for failing to supply new protective gear and testing kits to hospitals facing shortages.
For people in the United States with close ties to China, the outbreak has brought unexpected worry, disappointment and scrutiny. Some in the Chinese-American community have had their Lunar New Year holiday plans waylaid, as travel schedules for the coming week and beyond get interrupted.
Some are gearing up for the outbreak to get worse. Hardware stores and pharmacies around the United States are selling out of masks that could help prevent the spread of the disease. In the New York City neighborhood of Flushing, masks have been sold out for much of the week.
Chinese-Americans networking with their friends and family in China have scrambled to send aid. One woman in Los Angeles has amassed 20,000 masks to ship overseas.
Sean Shi, of Issaquah, Wash., said he shipped several boxes of masks to China in a friend’ s luggage, with hopes that the masks could reach friends in the Wuhan area as soon as possible. Later in the day, Mr. Shi was back at a local hardware store, buying another 46 masks for some of his former peers at Wuhan University.
“ We understand it’ s a tough situation over there — the panic, the shortage of equipment, ” Mr. Shi said. “ We just realized the situation is very serious — more serious than we thought. ”
Reporting was contributed by Tiffany May, Steven Lee Myers, Vivian Wang, Chris Buckley, Raymond Zhong, Carlos Tejada, Rick Gladstone, Mike Baker, Jeffrey E. Singer and Elian Peltier. Yiwei Wang and Claire Fu contributed research. | business |
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry warns citizens over dangerous situation in China | Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has warned citizens in connection with the situation in China, Trend reports referring to the ministry Jan. 24.
Azerbaijani citizens planning to travel to China are advised to be careful, comply with requirements of the World Health Organization ( WHO) and take into account the situation in the country.
Citizens of Azerbaijan who permanently, temporarily reside or stay in China on a visit are advised to abide by the rules announced in the country and, in connection with any problem encountered, contact the relevant Chinese healthcare authorities and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Beijing.
Azerbaijani citizens who permanently, temporarily reside or on a visit abroad, are advised to contact embassies and consulates, as well as register there for provision of the necessary assistance in emergency cases and other dangerous situations.
Chinese coronavirus has infected hundreds since the outbreak began in Wuhan city in China in December.
The death toll in China's viral outbreak has risen to 25, with the number of confirmed cases also leaping to 830, the Chinese government said.
China has effectively quarantined nearly 20 million people across Wuhan and some nearby cities in response to the virus, and announced measures to curb its spread nationwide as hundreds of millions of people began travelling across the country this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. | general |
Virus anxieties cast shadow over Year of the Rat festivities | * Lunar New Year activities take place across the world
* Death toll from the coronavirus in China rises to 41
* Cases spread outside China, reach Australia on Saturday
By Stefica Nicol Bikes and Lidia Kelly
SYDNEY/MELBOURNE, Jan 25 ( Reuters) - Chinese communities in Australia and New Zealand were among the first to greet the Year of the Rat on Saturday but Lunar New Year celebrations globally were marred by anxieties about the virus outbreak that has disrupted festivities in China.
Sydney, home to a large and growing Chinese population, started its Lunar New Year festivities in subdued fashion after China cancelled many large-scale celebrations of the holiday on concerns about the coronavirus, which has also reached Australia.
Australia’ s largest city welcomed the year with golden rats statues set up at the entrance to its downtown Chinatown precinct.
“ We don’ t know if quite as many people will come this year because of the coronavirus and I’ d like to especially acknowledge Wuhan city government, ” Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore said, referring to the central Chinese city considered the epicentre of the virus.
One hundred community Lunar New Year events are billed across Sydney until Feb. 11, including dragon boat races and the annual lunar lantern display. The festivities last year attracted 1.5 million people
Australia confirmed its first four cases of the virus on Saturday, joining France, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore and other countries outside of China that have reported infections.
The death toll from the outbreak in China has reached 41 while more than 1,300 people have been infected globally.
For China’ s 1.4 billion people, the holiday is the most important and millions travel thousands of miles back to their hometowns to gather with family and friends.
To control the spread of the virus, authorities closed part of the Great Wall and suspended public transport in many cities, stranding millions.
Chinese state television’ s traditional Lunar New Year extravaganza on Friday paid tribute to the people of Wuhan and to medical staff fighting the coronavirus crisis, urging them on to victory in the battle to defeat the outbreak,
Many events, such as making offerings at temples, wandering around at outdoor festival fairs, and even family reunion dinners at restaurants have been cancelled as public gatherings were discouraged.
Young people posted on social media appeals to reduce family gatherings or to at least wear masks when greeting one another with New Year’ s wishes, which is typically seen as disrespectful in the Chinese culture.
In Wuhan, the most affected city, the mood was nervous.
“ There’ s so much news, so much data, every 10 minutes there’ s an update, it’ s frightening, especially for people like us in a severely hit area, ” Lily Jin, 30, a resident of the city, told Reuters.
The concerns surrounding the Lunar New Year festivities are not confined to China.
Zhao Xiaoli, a tour guide from Eastern China’ s Anhui province said while visiting Thailand for the celebrations that precautions have been taken.
“ ( We have advised tourists to) avoid crowded places, take care of personal hygiene, and go to see a doctor immediately if they show symptoms of flu, fever and coughs, ” he said. ( Additional reporting by Praveen Menon in Auckland, Muyu Xu in Beijing and the Beijing bureau; Writing by Lidia Kelly; Editing by Sam Holmes) | business |
How China’ s Economy Is Taking a Hit From Coronavirus | China’ s spreading new virus has killed 41 people, with confirmed infections more than 1,300 infected worldwide—a number health experts say is likely a fraction of the actual cases.
As the disease has spread to nearly 10 other countries, including the U.S., airports around the world are screening passengers from China. Airline and travel-related stocks are taking a hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday and early Thursday but has largely recovered since.
Authorities there have locked down ground zero of the viral outbreak—the enormous city of Wuhan, which is geographically 10 times the size of Dallas or San Diego, and contains 11 million residents. At least eight other cities in the region are under transport lockdown, meaning some 40 million people are restricted from traveling, according to Chinese state media reports.
Predicting how the outbreak and subsequent consumer panic and investor uncertainty will affect certain sectors is often easy, but less clear-cut for several areas.
Morningstar Investment Management Asia forecasts that Chinese airlines with Wuhan-connected routes will suffer in the short term, but “ barring a ‘ black swan’ event, we expect airline operations to normalize over time, ” Ivan Su, a Morningstar equity analyst, said in an emailed statement.
Also expected to take a hit are China’ s leading travel site Trip.com ( ticker: TCOM) and the tourism and gambling sectors in Macau, which recently announced its first coronavirus case.
Macau’ s economy was hit hard in early 2003 by the SARS epidemic, though central government support helped it rebound soon after. As China is experiencing significant economic cooling, investors are waiting to see what, if any, stimulus measures are rolled out for various sectors once the disease is better understood and contained.
One hard-hit sector looks to be China’ s movie industry. The disease struck smack in the middle of the country’ s biggest annual holiday, Lunar New Year, which often rakes in a substantial portion of each year’ s box office receipts—close to $ 10 billion last year. An industry source told entertainment outlet Deadline that the disease’ s effects could cost the industry $ 1 billion globally this year.
The dour news spread quickly on Chinese social media, but one clever studio spun straw into gold. The makers of one film, the much-anticipated comedy “ Lost in Russia, ” decided to not only release the movie online, but to offer it for free. Within hours Friday, the announcement became the top-trending topic on China’ s Twitter -like Weibo, and Hong Kong-listed Huanxi Media Group’ s ( 1003: HK) share price had skyrocketed an eye-popping 43%.
Although many industries and stores close their doors during the holiday, one exception is large, higher-end restaurants, where families and big groups go to treat each other to lavish meals. There is scant data on how they are faring so far, but one Chinese woman who returned to her hometown for the holiday in Henan, a province not far from Wuhan that has reported its own viral cases, said she had urged her friends and family to skip the festive dinners and play it safe at home.
“ My brother and mother were on the fence about going to the big dinner, ” Lü Gaili, a 33-year-old illustrator, told Barron’ s. “ I couldn’ t seem to convince them, so I secretly used each of their phones to text the family saying ‘ I’ m not going tonight.’ This way everyone thought we had all decided against going. ”
Many Chinese haven’ t gone to this extreme to convince their loved ones to avoid crowded Lunar New Year events. Three other Chinese citizens told Barron’ s they and numerous friends had canceled big gatherings because of the perceived risk.
And these are only examples of voluntary avoidances of activities that would generate economic activity. Beijing authorities have outright banned events, including its major new year festival, and have shuttered several of its preeminent tourist attractions, including the Forbidden City, the National Museum, and parts of the Great Wall.
Shanghai has shut down several events as well, including some of its river cruises, but none have provoked the despondency that arose online Friday when Shanghai Disneyland announced it was closing its doors for an unspecified duration.
Hong Kong, Macau, and several other cities have taken similar precautions. Despite only moderate ups and downs for overseas stocks, mainland Chinese markets ended the week on a palpably sour note, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index having its worst Lunar New Year’ s eve in its 30-year history, falling nearly 3% Thursday before the start of the seven-day trading break.
Because of China’ s enormous population, the enervation of economic activity, even for as little as a week—and this epidemic could have longer staying power—is enough to significantly dent the country’ s overall economy, experts say.
If the virus continues to spread, “ the economic impact for China—and potentially elsewhere—will be significant, ” according to a study by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which said up to one percentage point could be shaved off the country’ s 2020 real GDP growth rate.
Other analysts were more pessimistic. “ The current outbreak’ s likely impact will range from a 0.8% cut to real GDP if the epidemic is controlled within three months, to a 1.9% cost to GDP if the epidemic lasts nine months, ” said Mo Ji, chief economist of Greater China for asset management firm AllianceBernstein.
“ Most likely, the duration of the outbreak will be something in between, ” he said. “ For at least another three to four months, China will have to fight not only the spread of the disease but also the damage it causes to economic growth. We currently anticipate a possible one percentage point cost to real GDP growth. ” | business |
An AI Epidemiologist Sent the First Warnings of the Coronavirus | The BlueDot algorithm scours news reports and airline ticketing data to predict the spread of diseases like those linked to the flu outbreak in China. | tech |
Stocks Catch a Cold After Fed Stops Expanding Its Balance Sheet | When America sneezed, the world used to catch a cold. Now the spread of coronavirus in China and abroad has cast a chill on global financial markets.
This new bug raised the specter of the SARS epidemic of 2003, but the World Health Organization says it’ s too early to declare a global health emergency. In China, with over 1,000 confirmed cases and 41 deaths, cities with a combined population over 36 million are in lockdown over the key Lunar New Year’ s holiday.
In the U.S., the coronavirus threat seems to more closely resemble what we see in the typical flu season, but on a much smaller scale, observes Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. There have been 120,000 hospitalizations and 6,600 deaths from the flu, versus two confirmed cases of coronavirus.
The prospect of a disruption in global economies weighed on equities and speculative-grade bonds, along with oil and other commodities. For the week, the Dow industrials and the S & P 500 index fell by more than 1%, their worst declines since August, while the Nasdaq dipped by 0.8%, its worst showing since late September.
Risk markets were already exhibiting signs of being ready to take a breather from their steady advance to record prices and skimpy yield premiums. “ All metrics showed the market being overbought in terms of sentiment, ” commented Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. That included active call-option buying, representing bets on higher prices. All of which helped set the stage for a pullback, with coronavirus providing the catalyst.
Hitting this speed bump, the stock market’ s strong groups didn’ t live up to the popular perception that only the big tech names have powered the averages to records. But bond surrogates represented by exchange-traded funds, such as Utilities Select Sector SPDR ( ticker: XLU) and iShares U.S. Real Estate ( IYR), hit records, as the 10-year Treasury yield slipped under 1.70%, from 1.92% at the turn of the year.
Interest rates remain the primary underpinning for stocks, as equity valuations look stretched, except when compared with the paltry returns offered by the debt market. Much of the credit for that is owed to the world’ s central banks, notably the Federal Reserve. In addition to last year’ s three one-quarter percentage-point short-term rate cuts, the central bank has expanded its balance sheet by over $ 300 billion since September, when ructions in the repurchase-agreement market led it to inject liquidity. Since then, U.S. stocks’ value has jumped by more than $ 3 trillion.
A weekly guide to our best stories on technology, disruption, and the people and stocks in the middle of it all.
The Fed insists that its operations don’ t constitute quantitative easing, as it calls its purchases of long-term securities intended to boost stock and bond prices. Its recent operations consist of adding liquidity to the money markets through repurchase agreements and by buying short-term bills. Others call this a distinction without difference, given the impact on stock and bond prices.
What’ s intriguing is that the Fed’ s balance sheet has stopped expanding since the beginning of the year and actually contracted by some $ 25 billion in the week ended on Wednesday. While the central bank has said it would continue to purchase $ 60 billion of Treasury bills a month, it’ s winding down its repo operations and letting its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities mature without being replaced. It’ s probably coincidental that the stock market has stumbled, but it bears watching.
All of which could provide interesting fodder for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’ s press conference this Wednesday afternoon, following the two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. That the central bank won’ t change its federal-funds target range of 1.50% to 1.75% is about as sure a wager as there is in this life ( although J.P. Morgan economists predict a slight technical upward adjustment in the interest rate on excess reserves, to 1.60% from 1.55%).
What the Powell Fed won’ t do is threaten the economy or bull market by letting the yield curve invert, with the 10-year note yield trading below the two-year note, writes Strategas Research Partners strategist Thomas Tzitzouris. “ Powell’ s pivot ” last year—from planning multiple rate hikes to holding steady and ultimately cutting rates—contrasted with the actions of his predecessors, who were slow to reverse course when the yield curve inverted. Still to be seen: how the Fed manages its balance sheet if risk markets turn rocky. | business |
Oil Tumbled This Week. It’ s Time to Buy Energy Stocks Like BP. | Just when it looked as if oil prices were ready to shoot higher, the waning threat of war and the arrival of the coronavirus has caused them to have their worst start to a year since 2016. That makes it a good time to consider buying energy stocks.
Oil began 2020 with a quick 7.5% gain as tensions between the U.S. and Iran ratcheted up, leading to concern that an all-out conflict would disrupt the oil supply. Those concerns quickly faded and were replaced by the coronavirus, which, if history repeats, could reduce oil demand.
After trading as high as $ 65.65 on Jan. 8, WTI crude oil futures have fallen 17%, to $ 54.38. All told, the price of oil dropped 9.8% during the first 15 trading days of January, the sixth-worst start to the year going back to 1984, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The bad news for investors is that oil prices usually keep falling when they start a new year off in a rut. The good news: Energy stocks eventually rally.
Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey looked at the nine worst starts to the year for WTI crude going back to 1984. Oil kept falling in seven of the nine occasions, with a median drop of 18.8%. The two exceptions: 2016, when WTI dropped 18.1% and then surged 77.1% over the remainder of the year, and 2007, when WTI started the year with a 9.3% slide and then soared 73.3%.
Energy stocks performed far better than oil, rising seven out of nine times, with a median gain of 15.2%. The two exceptions occurred in 2015, when fears of mass bankruptcies in the oil patch paralyzed the sector, and in 2008, during the financial crisis.
“ Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the energy sector after all, ” Hickey says.
Yes, we know that investors have been waiting for energy stocks to rally for years now. The Energy Select Sector SPDRexchange-traded fund ( ticker: XLE) has dropped 10.3%, including reinvested dividends, over the past five years, compared with the S & P 500’ s 80% return, and has lagged behind the broad-market index for four of the past five years. The focus on climate change means that oil companies could end up like tobacco stocks—rooted out of the portfolios of socially responsible investors. The energy sector certainly doesn’ t look as if it’ s in the market’ s sweet spot.
It isn’ t clear why energy stocks should rally when oil prices fall. Though the sector has become more correlated to the price of oil in recent years, Hickey suggests that its outperformance could be driven by something as simple as the forward-looking nature of the stock market—all the bad news should already be reflected in the stocks.
There is another reason to consider the global energy sector—its free-cash-flow yield. We all know that energy stocks are cheap, but they have been the wrong kind of cheap. Free-cash-flow yield is one of the few valuation measures that has worked in the post-financial-crisis world, notes Citigroup strategist Mert Genc, and energy’ s, at 5.7%, is now one of the firm’ s Overweights for the first time since 2007. “ Energy sector share price performance has lagged behind so much that the sector now looks attractive on a FCF Yield, ” he writes.
BP ( BP) looks particularly attractive. The stock has returned just 1.2%, including reinvested dividends, over the past 12 months, and was hit particularly hard after its third-quarter earnings report, when it failed to raise its dividend, something the market was expecting it to do, notes Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel.
The stock, which sports a free-cash-flow yield of 8.5% and trades at just 11.8 times earnings, was recently added to the Jefferies Franchise Picks list, and Gammel believes that the company will soon boost cash returns to investors. Meanwhile, it has a dividend yield of 6.4%, above those of Royal Dutch Shell ( RDSA), Exxon Mobil ( XOM), and Chevron ( CVX). | business |
Hong Kong Marathon cancelled in wake of coronavirus outbreak – most social media users say it’ s a ‘ wise’ and ‘ right’ decision | The 2020 Standard Chartered Hong Kong Marathon has been cancelled in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. | business |
China coronavirus: Hong Kong leader hits back at delay criticism as she suspends school classes, cancels marathon and declares city at highest level of emergency | Hong Kong’ s leader has declared the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak an emergency, raising the government’ s response to its highest level and rolling out a series of measures to prevent further infection. | business |
The Pleasures of a Small Dog Strategy | Investors seeking higher yields might consider taking a walk with some Small Dogs. This isn’ t some exotic alternative asset class. Rather, it’ s a modification on a time-tested investment strategy, the Dogs of the Dow, which are the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow industrials. The strategy returned 15% a year for the past decade, outpacing the Dow, and only trailing it in three of the years.
It’ s a simple strategy that has worked. The average dividend yield for 2020 Dogs is 3.7% —twice the yield of the S & P 500—and the stocks trade for on average 15 times estimated 2020 earnings. These Dogs are Big Dogs: The average market value is $ 180 billion.
But we know there’ s more yield available in smaller stocks. So we decided to build a Barron’ s Small Dogs portfolio consisting of the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000 with market values over $ 1 billion. The portfolio isn’ t fancy: It consists of lots of real estate, such as GEO Group and Global Net Lease.
But over the decade, Small Dogs earned 14% a year on average, trailing the Russell 2000 by about a percentage point a year, and a little better than the S & P 500. The Small Dogs was more volatile, year to year, than the broader indexes. Why should investors take higher volatility for similar returns? Because of yield. The Small Dogs average dividend yield over the decade is almost 20%, compared to 1.7% for the Russell 2000. That’ s a huge gap.
Before going out and trying this, investors should ask how they feel about volatility and what impact dividends will have on their taxes. Pass that test and you can take those Small Dogs around the block.
The spreading coronavirus crisis agitated markets, but losses were cushioned as earnings season rolled on and stocks like Netflix and IBM surged. But on Friday, virus fears merged with tumbling oil prices, sending stocks south. The Dow industrials shed 1.2%, to 28,989.73 on the week; the S & P 500 lost 1%, to 3295.47; and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8%, to 9314.91.
The coronavirus killed at least 41 ( and counting), with over 1,000 confirmed cases, while spreading throughout China to neighboring countries; two cases appeared in the U.S. The respiratory virus emerged in a market in Wuhan, in central China. Authorities are concerned that the outbreak coincided with the Lunar New Year, when millions of Chinese travel. China took aggressive moves to slow the infection, locking down Wuhan, and nearby cities, home to over 20 million people.
Impeachment proceedings began with procedural jousting, first over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’ s rules for the trial, then over a series of amendments by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seeking witnesses and documents. The 11 amendments failed, but McConnell, under pressure from moderates, did loosen some of the rules. On Wednesday, opening arguments began, led off by the Democrats. Next week: the GOP defense and the vote on witnesses.
The corporate and political elite descended on Davos for the 50th World Economic Forum, anxious about the fate of democracy and capitalism, economic growth and climate change. Protestors marched through the Alpine snow toward security ringing the town. President Donald Trump flew in just before his impeachment trial, giving a rally-style speech where he declared, “ America is thriving, America is flourishing, and yes, America is winning again. ” The theme of the meeting: “ Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World. ”
France suspended a 3% digital tax, and the U.S. held off on 100% tariffs on French imports, including wine, avoiding a trade war. French President Emmanuel Macron reached out to Trump on Sunday and worked out a deal until a broader agreement on taxation can be negotiated. At Davos, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin threatened new tariffs on the United Kingdom and Italy if it enacted digital taxes. And Trump warned that Europe would face new levies on car imports if it didn’ t agree to a new trade pact.
The European Central Bank launched its first strategic review since 2003, focused on its failure to hit inflation targets. New ECB President Christine Lagarde said the negative-rate policy would continue in the meantime. | business |
Inside the horrific, inhumane animal markets behind pandemics like coronavirus | You can usually smell the markets before you see them.
Especially if you’ re downwind.
It’ s a sickly, almost sweet and nauseating smell of death. Once inside, the fetid stench — made worse by blistering temperatures and zero refrigeration — is overwhelming, and it is places like this where the deadly coronavirus originated.
In stall after stall, a mix of live and dead animals, which run the gamut from the known ( pig, ox, duck, chicken) to the rare or unknown due to the condition of the carcass — stare back at you. In the wet areas of the market — usually reserved for fish and sea creatures and where the ground is slick with water and often blood — the stink is worse. The animals that have not yet been dispatched by the butcher’ s knife make desperate bids to escape by climbing on top of each other and flopping or jumping out of their containers ( to no avail). At least in the wet areas, the animals don’ t make a sound. The screams from mammals and fowl are unbearable and heartbreaking.
These unregulated and usually filthy markets are found all over Asia and Africa.
In Laos, I came across a section of the local ( i.e. not for tourist) market full of dead bats as well as live creatures like birds, turtles, fish and other unfortunate critters.
In North Vietnam, on market days, hundreds of ( live and dead) dogs were being sold for supper alongside other land and sea creatures.
In Myanmar and Cambodia, fish and animals I never even knew existed were being bartered for alive and dead. In a way, it was fascinating — there were reptiles, insects and fish I’ d never seen before. Some looked so odd it was hard to believe they weren’ t alien — and in colors that were stunning and strange.
In South Africa, Congo and Mali there were monkeys and chimpanzee parts being sold for medicine as well as meat.
I once came across a live hedgehog in Bamako, Mali, and bought it just to give it its freedom and have it live another day. A pangolin baby at the Sangha Pangolin Project I wrote about last week was saved in a similar manner.
The pangolin, an elusive mammal that looks like a cross between an anteater, an armadillo and a pinecone, is the most trafficked animal in the world, with over 100,000 killed last year. They are hunted for their scales which the Chinese believe helps with blood circulation.
Presumably, none of these animals or their carcasses from these markets are screened for rabies, anthrax, salmonella or other animal-borne diseases.
And China is also full of similar markets — where live animals wait for their fresh slaughter. The market at the center of the deadly coronavirus outbreak sold live animals — including wolf pups, foxes, rats and peacocks, as well as crocodiles, giant salamanders, snakes, porcupines, and camel meat.
The coronavirus is a series of viruses that include a range from the common cold to pneumonia that causes respiratory infections, which are often mild, but in rare cases are potentially lethal. Symptoms of the virus include fever, coughing and difficulty breathing.
It is in these markets where the deadliest outbreaks can start.
See
:
President Xi calls situation grave as China scrambles to contain virus
Magda Bermejo — a Spanish primatologist and world authority on the western lowland gorilla who lives and works out of the Odzala Ngaga camp in the Republic of Congo — was in the region during the Ebola outbreak in 2003 and 2004.
“ It’ s thought the outbreak started because of the bats eating from the persimmon trees in the forests. Bats, gorillas and chimpanzees love the fruit. That year when the trees ripened, the bats flocked to the trees and everything was covered in bat guano. During the day the gorillas and chimps ate the [ bat guano covered ] fruit and developed Ebola. It spread quite quickly after that. ”
From the animals, Ebola then transferred to humans.
“ Hunters found the [ gorilla carcasses ] and used them for bushmeat and then got the Ebola from the [ dead ] animals, ” Bermejo said. During that outbreak, 25 people and hundreds of gorillas died.
That outbreak was contained as none of the infected people went to major transport hubs and none of the meat made it to major markets.
In Wuhan, people weren’ t so lucky.
The city of over 11 million residents has been on lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak, which has been linked to a wet seafood market there that sold exotic wildlife for human consumption.
While no one is sure what animal or stall caused the virus, China is responsible for the trafficking of rare endangered animals like the pangolin, rhino and tigers for use in traditional medicine as well as some used for meat.
A few years ago, a Chinese friend of a friend, Jon Hsia, went with me on a tour of the real Chinatown in Queens and quipped, “ Listen, in China, anything with four legs but a table, and anything with two legs and not a person — we’ ll eat it. ”
Historically, the omnivorous, tip-to-tail diet stems from lack of funds — you can’ t afford to not eat the entire animal — you need to make the protein last as long as possible.
China, up until very recently, had no middle class and the majority of its billion-plus population lived in poverty. Even now, according to the latest statistics from the Shanghai government, the average monthly wage in 2018, after deducting tax and social welfare contributions, was $ 1,047. That’ s little more than $ 13,000 a year.
The second case of coronavirus in the US has been confirmed in Chicago on Friday — the first case of coronavirus in the US was confirmed earlier this week in Washington state — as health officials continue to examine 63 patients in 22 states. So far, the virus has killed at least 26 people and infected more than 800 worldwide.
These unregulated markets must stop. Not only are they wiping out precious wildlife, they are the root of most modern epidemics and outbreaks. They literally threaten all life on the planet.
See also
:
Scientist who simulated the global impact of a coronavirus outbreak says ‘ the cat’ s already out of the bag’ and calls China’ s efforts to contain the disease ‘ unlikely to be effective’ | business |
Will Hong Kong ETFs Suffer on Moody's Downgrade? | Moody’ s Investors Service recently downgraded Hong Kong’ s rating as a long-term issuer of debt to Aa3 from Aa2. Notably, this rating giant lowered Hong Kong’ s ratings for the first time after May 2017. However, it updated the outlook to stable from a negative.
Hong Kong’ s economic growth has largely been affected by the frequent pro-democracy protests and clashes between the police and demonstrators since June 2019. The agitation had begun across the city post the government’ s proposed extradition bill. This standoff has been severely hurting the private consumption, tourism and fixed investment levels in Hong Kong. High unemployment level is also inducing disappointing household spending and sluggishness in economic growth. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 3.3% for fourth-quarter 2019 from 2.8% in the months before June 2019.
In this regard, the rating agency notified that “ the absence of tangible plans to address either the political or economic and social concerns of the Hong Kong population that have come to the fore in the past nine months may reflect weaker inherent institutional capacity than Moody’ s had previously assessed ”.
Notably, Fitch Ratings slashed Hong Kong’ s rating in September to AA from AA+ with a negative outlook.
Looking Forward
The world’ s major indices are taking a hit due to the latest coronavirus outbreak in China, which has claimed 26 lives so far and about 830 confirmed cases have been registered. In such a bleak scenario, if the situation further worsens then it can be another headwind to Hong Kong’ s economic progress ( read: ETF Strategies to Combat Coronavirus Outbreak)
Moreover, it is believed that the phase-one trade deal will help improve the trade scene around the globe but the relief will be temporary. China will have to grapple with 25% tariffs on $ 250 billion worth of Chinese industrial goods and components used by manufacturers in the United States. The tariff-related issues are expected to be dealt with during the phase two of the trade deal ( read: Phase-One Trade Deal to Boost These ETF Areas).
ETFs That Might Lose
Against this bearish backdrop, let’ s take a look at some Hong Kong ETFs that might suffer:
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF EWH
The fund provides exposure to large and mid-sized companies in Hong Kong and tracks the MSCI Hong Kong Index. With AUM of $ 2.10 billion, it holds a basket of 43 stocks, heavily focused on the top firm. The product charges 49 bps in annual fees. The fund trades in average daily volumes of 6.1 million shares. It has a Zacks ETF Rank # 3 ( Hold) with a Medium-risk outlook.
Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF FLHK
The fund provides targeted exposure to large- and mid-sized companies in Hong Kong and tracks the FTSE Hong Kong Capped Index. With AUM of $ 19.2 million, it holds a basket of 92 stocks, heavily focused on the top firm. The product charges 9 bps in annual fees. The fund trades in very low average daily volumes of 934 shares. It has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3.
SPDR Solactive Hong Kong ETF ZHOK
The fund seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the Solactive GBS Hong Kong Large & Mid Cap USD Index. With AUM of $ 8 million, it holds a basket of 51 stocks, heavily focused on the top firm. The product charges 14 bps in annual fees. The fund trades in very low average daily volumes of around 1,800 shares. This ETF is Zacks # 3 Ranked.
Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox?
Zacks ' free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. Get it free > >
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF ( EWH): ETF Research Reports SPDR Solactive Hong Kong ETF ( ZHOK): ETF Research Reports Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF ( FLHK): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
China's Citywide Quarantines: Are They Ethical and Effective? | The novel coronavirus outbreak that apparently started in China’ s massive city of Wuhan has now spread to other parts of that nation and several countries beyond it, including the U.S. As of late this week, health officials said the virus had infected more than 1,000 people, causing at least 41 deaths in China. Chinese authorities have responded by shutting down all travel into and out of Wuhan and about a dozen other cities, restricting the movements of around 35 million people.
The restrictions—which are occurring during the Chinese New Year holiday, when millions of people usually travel to visit their families—are an attempt to prevent the virus from spreading further within China, where the vast majority of cases have so far been concentrated. But experts are split on whether this approach is effective or fair to the residents of the affected cities.
“ As far as I know, trying to completely cut out travel from an area of that size—if it’ s not unprecedented, it’ s close, ” says Chandy John, former president of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and a professor of pediatrics at Indiana University. “ I’ m not aware of anything that’ s been that drastic for [ such an area ] in the past. ”
The action raises a number of potential issues, including “ basic human rights concerns about restricting a group of people who are within an epidemic area to that area, ” John says. Additionally, “ if you do something like this, getting health supplies into the city, getting care for the people in the city who are sick—all of that’ s going to be more difficult. And of course, those who are in the city who aren’ t sick—and can’ t leave—may be more exposed than they would be if they could leave. ” The New York Times reported that people in Wuhan were experiencing long waits for medical care, that some were sent home without a thorough exam or treatment and that some residents had limited access to fresh food because so many shops and markets were closed. John says that in a city as large as Wuhan, which has a population of more than 11 million, some people may still find ways to leave. And they might not want to tell others where they are coming from, which could make it harder to trace potential infections.
On the other hand, John says, “ it is still relatively early in the outbreak, and so prevention of travel is one effective way of containing it to an area—especially since [ Wuhan ] seems to be a major hub for transport and travel in China. ” The travel shutdown lowers the risk of residents of Wuhan or nearby cities carrying the virus elsewhere, and it makes it less likely that people who visit will acquire the pathogen and spread it when they return home. “ From that standpoint, I think it could be effective in reducing the spread, ” John says. But something less draconian than restricting all travel—such as telling individuals with symptoms of the infection to stay in their home— “ could have a big bang for the buck without all the downsides of the travel restrictions, ” he says.
Other experts did not express the same qualms about the quarantines. “ Very few countries could pull it off. China is one of the ones that can, ” says Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University Grossman School of Medicine. But should they? “ My attitude here is yes, ” he says. “ We don’ t know whether this is a big risk or small risk, ” Caplan adds. “ Anytime you get a new mutation [ in a virus ], though, that looks like it’ s person-to-person and could be fatal due to pneumonia—I think that’ s something to pay immediate attention to. ” Furthermore, he says, “ it isn't particularly intrusive to be told you have to stay in a city of 11 million people—that's hardly being chained to your apartment... So I don’ t see this as some kind of gigantic civil liberties intrusion. I see it as prudent. ”
But quarantining an entire large city—or multiple cities—is not an approach that would work in many other places. “ You’ re not going to quarantine the city of New York, ever, ” Caplan says, noting that U.S. authorities could not even effectively enforce a quarantine imposed on one nurse who returned to the country after treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone in 2014. Whether it is more effective to quarantine cities, as China has done, or to simply ask individuals who feel sick to stay home is a matter of culture, he says.
When a government decides to quarantine someone, it should ensure that those affected have a tolerable quality of life, Caplan says. If a person is kept in a room with no television, bad heat and no running water, for example, that is unacceptable. But not allowing someone to leave a city of 11 million is “ not especially burdensome, ” he says—at least until more is known about the virus and how lethal it is.
A second U.S. case of the new coronavirus was confirmed on Friday in Illinois. Cases of human-to-human transmission have been reported in China, including chains of up to four people. Most of those who died were older and had underlying health problems. So far, the World Health Organization has declined to declare the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, although it has said that decision could change as more information becomes available. | science |
Dow Jones Industrial Average Suffers Largest Weekly Drop Since August | It’ s taken Selena Gomez many years and three consecutive No. 1 albums—her most recent, Rare, was released earlier this month—to shake the perception of her as a troubled child star. Perceptions of the stock market, unfortunately, can shift in a matter of days.
In our previous column, as the major indexes started the year off with a bang, we mused about the possibility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 30,000. The spread of coronavirus—a respiratory virus most of us weren’ t familiar with until this past week—in China and abroad put that celebration on hold. The Dow dropped 358.37 points, or 1.2%, to 28,989.73, while the S & P 500 index fell 1%, to 3295.47, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8%, to 9314.91. It was the biggest one-week drop for the S & P and the Dow since August.
With the arrival of coronavirus on the scene, information that might have been relevant no longer is. We were looking forward to the release of December’ s durable-goods orders, housing data, and consumer-confidence numbers, as well as fourth-quarter gross-domestic-product data this coming week. Now, those numbers are mostly meaningless. Look no further than the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which fell to 1.68% this past week, its lowest level since October.
“ Alas, if the recent range-challenging price action is any indication, the forward looking prospects will be much more reliant on coronavirus than anything revealed about the final quarter of 2019, ” writes BMO Capital Markets’ Ian Lyngen.
That is a big change from the week before, when low yields were a sign that inflation was low and the Federal Reserve was on hold. Now, they’ re a reason to be worried about the strength of the U.S. economy. Yet Leuthold Group strategist James Paulsen notes that low bond yields often have been good for the stock market.
When the yield on the 10-year is over 3%, an all-stock portfolio has outperformed an all-bond portfolio by 2.3 percentage points annually. When the 10-year is below 3%, stocks offer more than six times the return. “ Rather than raise anxieties, perhaps equity investors should simply embrace amazingly low yields, which historically have made ‘ risk less risky,’ ” Paulsen writes.
But that doesn’ t mean the stock market is suddenly risk-free. As we suggested last week, the market was ready for a pullback—and one may finally be on its way. Most metrics suggest the market was overbought following its recent melt-up. The S & P 500, for instance, has gone 71 days without a 1% move in either direction, the longest such streak since Oct. 9, 2018. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has closed at a record high 28 times since the beginning of November, the most in a three-month stretch since February 2000—you know, right before the dot-com bubble popped.
But this isn’ t the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus is unlikely to be the thing that tips the U.S. into recession. Market internals are still strong, with the advance/decline line, a cumulative measure of the number of stocks rising versus those falling, still making new highs ( it usually diverges four months before a market top). This drop is likely not the big one, even if it may feel that way.
“ Even 5% corrections are not fun, ” writes Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields. “ They tell you they’ re ‘ buying opportunities’ and they are. They don’ t tell you that down 5% the news turns bad and then you’ re afraid the 5% turns to 10% or 15%. ”
So far, it’ s hardly a 5% drop. But brace yourselves, just in case. | business |
Three Cases of Novel Coronavirus Reported in France – Virus Recently Emerged in China | French health authorities have confirmed three cases of novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) virus in France.
The first confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Europe are not unexpected. Their identification proves that detection and confirmation of this novel virus is working in France, showing a high level of preparedness to prevent and control further infections.
French health authorities have confirmed three cases of novel coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) virus in France since January 24, 2020. The first confirmed cases in Europe are not unexpected given the developments of the last few days with several 2019-nCoV cases reported in countries outside of China.
The fact that these cases were identified, proves that detection and confirmation of this novel virus is working in France, showing a high level of preparedness to prevent and control possible infections of 2019-nCoV.
Even if there are still many things unknown about 2019-nCoV, European countries have the necessary capacities to prevent and control an outbreak as soon as cases are detected.
Most EU countries have plans and measures in place to contain this kind of infections and Europe has well-equipped laboratories that can confirm probable cases in addition to hospitals that are prepared to treat patients accordingly. EU/EEA countries should ensure that timely and rigorous infection prevention and control measures ( IPC) are applied around people diagnosed with 2019-nCoV. Such measures will keep the likelihood of further sustained spread in both healthcare and community settings low.
In the past, systematic implementation of infection prevention and control measures were effective in controlling both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.
ECDC is working with the EU/EEA Member States to ensure that they are prepared to manage any imported cases. ECDC is monitoring this event through epidemic intelligence activities, and provides risk assessments to guide EU Member States and the EU Commission in their response activities.
At this stage, it is likely that there will be more imported cases in Europe. Even if there are still many things unknown about 2019-nCoV, European countries have the necessary capacities to prevent and control an outbreak as soon as cases are detected.
Chinese authorities have identified a cluster of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV infections in Wuhan City, China. Cases have also been reported from Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Nepal, Malaysia, France, Australia. All the cases outside China had a recent travel history to China prior onset, except in Vietnam. The first cases in the EU/EEA were confirmed in France. Further global spread is likely.
The 2019-nCoV is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans. Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern, especially when there’ s little knowledge about the characteristics of the virus, how it spreads between people, how severe are the resulting infections and how to treat them.
Human-to-human transmission has been confirmed but more information is needed to evaluate the full extent of this mode of transmission. The source of infection is unknown and could still be active. EU/EEA countries should ensure that timely and rigorous infection prevention and control measures ( IPC) are applied around cases detected in the EU/EEA, in order to prevent further sustained spread in the community and healthcare settings.
Assuming that timely and rigorous IPC measures are applied around imported cases detected in the EU/EEA, the likelihood of further sustained spread in community settings is considered low.
All flights from Wuhan have been canceled. The Chinese New Year celebrations at the end of January will increase travel volume to/from China and within China, hence increasing the likelihood of arrival of cases in the EU. | tech |
Opinion: How an external event could stunt U.S. stocks | History does not always repeat itself in the stock market, but it is always instructive.
Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable. Sometimes it is an exogenous event that topples stocks. What could be happening currently? Could it be that the deadly virus spreading across China stops the buying frenzy in stocks? The first U.S. case was reported Tuesday.
Read:
This is how far and fast the coronavirus has spread through U.S. stocks
There is a mania going on in the stock market, but not in the terms you would think. Before you send me hate mail for raining on the parade, remember that The Arora Report gave a signal to buy stocks on Donald Trump’ s election when many analysts were saying sell. Shortly thereafter, The Arora Report made a case for Dow 30,000 in Trump’ s first term. Please see “
Here’ s the case for Dow 30,000 in Trump’ s first term
. ”
Let’ s explore the stock market mania that is going on this month with the help of an annotated chart.
Chart
Please click
here
for an annotated chart of ETF
DIA,
+1.81%
,
which represents the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.82%
.
Note the following:
• The mania is not in terms of stock market gains. The mania is in stock market
gurus
almost unanimously saying that all is clear. Trump will get re-elected, Democrats will be decimated for impeaching Trump, another new leg of the bull market has just started and the Fed will print more money — so goes the story that is propelling the bullishness.
Does anyone see any holes in this story?
• The chart shows that the last time a similar mania occurred was in January 2018.
• The chart shows that the relative strength index ( RSI) is overbought, similar to the way it was during the January 2018 mania.
• Purists will say that this time RSI is slightly lower and has not been overbought for as long as the last time. Those purists ought to look at RSI on weekly charts of S & P 500 ETF
SPY,
+1.53%
,
which represents the popular benchmark S & P 500
SPX,
+1.42%
and Nasdaq 100 ETF
QQQ,
+0.72%
.
When looking at all three, the only unmistakable conclusion is that the stock market is technically overbought and vulnerable to a pullback.
• Based on proprietary indicators at The Arora Report, the sentiment in the stock market is not as manic as it was last time. In a perverse way, this is slightly positive in relative terms. Please see “
Extreme greed in the stock market is producing a bad setup as earnings season starts
. ”
• The chart shows that a 14% correction occurred after the last stock market mania.
• The momo ( momentum) crowd is aggressively buying stocks, but the smart money is lightly and selectively selling stocks into the strength. However, the smart money is buying technology stocks. Please see “
Something rare is happening among popular technology stocks
. ”
Ask Arora: Nigam Arora answers your questions about investing in stocks, ETFs, bonds, gold and silver, oil and currencies. Have a question? Send it to
Nigam Arora
.
‘ This time is different’
Gurus would say that this time is different. During the last mania, the bond market became a problem, causing the correction; this time there is no apparent bond market problem. Actually, gurus could not see the bond market problem. They can talk about it now only with the benefit of hindsight. Certainly this time is different in many ways. However, the basics of greed and fear in the stock market and gurus coming out of the woodwork with bullish statements during a mania have not changed. ( Where were these gurus when Trump was first elected?)
This is what’ s key
Investors ought to carefully watch earnings. Since the stock market is controlled by the momo crowd and “ bad ” news is “ good ” news, the stock market may ignore poor earnings from many companies. However, the stock market will have a difficult time ignoring earnings that are less than stellar from mega-caps Apple
AAPL,
-0.61%
,
Amazon
AMZN,
-0.18%
,
Facebook
FB,
-0.07%
,
GOOG,
+1.52%
GOOGL,
+1.36%
and Microsoft
MSFT,
-0.18%
.
The stock market will also have a difficult time ignoring earnings from the semiconductor sector if they are less than stellar. Semiconductor stocks to watch include AMD
AMD,
+1.05%
,
Nvidia (
NVDA,
+2.20%
and Micron Technology
MU,
-2.67%
.
Please see “
This U.S. company will benefit as China tries to catch up in semiconductors
” and “
How and when prudent investors ought to buy these 5G stocks
. ”
In the middle of absolute certainty being proclaimed by the gurus and their followers, it is worth remembering that Arora’ s Second Law of Investing and Trading has been tested over time: Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.
Investors should keep a close eye on the new Wuhan coronavirus that is spreading across China, which has confirmed it can spread between humans. A man in Washington state has been diagnosed with it, government health authorities said Tuesday.
Disclosure: Subscribers to
The Arora Report
may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time.
Nigam Arora
is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background who has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at
Nigam @ TheAroraReport.com
. | business |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.