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Layered controls can significantly curb exposure to COVID-19: Mechanistic modeling study shows the combination of physical distancing, increased ventilation, and face coverings is highly effective -- ScienceDaily | Using a new computational model that simulates the life cycle of pathogen-laden particles, the researchers found that a combination of distancing of six feet, universal mask-wearing, and increased room ventilation could reduce the risk of infection by more than 98 percent in more than 95 percent of scenarios studied.
`` Wide adoption of layered controls dramatically reduces exposure to existing airborne viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, and will be critical to control outbreaks of novel airborne viruses in the future, '' said Laura Fierce, an atmospheric scientist formerly with Brookhaven Lab, now at DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. `` These nonpharmaceutical interventions can be applied in combination with vaccinations. ''
The study is published in the journal Indoor Air. It focuses on how face masks and ventilation work alone and in combination with distancing to reduce the likelihood of someone inhaling virus-laden aerosol particles in particular scenarios -- namely, where an infectious person is speaking continuously in an indoor space for three-hours -- while also accounting for uncertainty in factors governing airborne transmission.
Fierce collaborated with Alison Robey and Catherine Hamilton -- who were participants in the DOE's Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internships ( SULI) program at Brookhaven -- to develop the model of respiratory aerosols and droplets used in the study. The model simulates how virus-laden particles move through the jet of air expelled by an infectious person and within the larger indoor space. It considers how expelled particles change in size as water evaporates, how pathogens within those particles become inactive, and how particles are removed through ventilation, deposition on surfaces, and gravitational settling.
The researchers ' simulations showed that exposure to airborne pathogens is significantly lowered by individual controls, such as face masks. But layering controls -- that is, using them in combination -- can be even more effective. According to the study, the combination of universal mask-wearing and distancing of even just three feet reduced a susceptible person's risk of infection by 99 percent. On the other hand, without the use of face masks, distancing of at least six feet was needed to avoid increased exposure to respiratory pathogens near an infectious person. The team also showed that increasing ventilation rates by completely replacing the air in a room with fresh or filtered air four times per hour reduces the risk of transmission by more than 70 percent, so long as the infectious person and susceptible person are distanced by at least six feet. On the other hand, ventilation does little to reduce the risk of infection when the infectious person is close by.
`` Our detailed modeling of respiratory particles shows how different controls on airborne transmission work in combination, which is important for prioritizing mitigation strategies for different indoor spaces, '' Fierce said.
This research was supported by the DOE Office of Science through the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory, a consortium of DOE national laboratories focused on response to COVID-19, with funding provided by the Coronavirus CARES Act. This project was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy through the Office of Science, Office of Workforce Development for Teachers and Scientists ( WDTS) under the Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internships Program ( SULI). The quadrature-based model was originally developed with support from the DOE Atmospheric System Research program. | science |
Global equities rise despite inflation scares, oil climbs | ( Updates prices, recasts first paragraph)
* World stocks waver as MSCI World Index lifts
* U.S. yields fall after producer prices data
* U.S. crude stocks surge, fuel inventories down
* UK inflation hits 30-year peak; NZ hikes rates
WASHINGTON, April 13 ( Reuters) - Global investor optimism lifted shares on Wednesday despite blurry inflation forecasts as bank earnings and oil supply concerns boosted trading sentiment.
The Japanese yen weakened past the 126 yen per dollar mark on Wednesday for the first time since 2002, while the euro was pinned at a one-month low as investors bought the U.S. currency after hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials.
The prospect of fast and aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep rates ultra-low in the near term have fueled the Japanese currency's declines against the dollar.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell - and data on inflation did not dissuade investors from believing that inflation may have peaked.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.03% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.79%.
Equity markets have suffered from hawkish moves from the world's top central banks in response to inflation, analysts said.
But data on Wednesday showed no let-up for Britain after inflation hit a 30-year high of 7%, although this came a day after a lower-than-expected U.S. print had given some traders cause to hope policy would be tightened more slowly.
`` Another month, another jump in inflation figures around the world, '' said Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager at asset manager Janus Henderson.
`` The increase in prices further ratchets up the pressure on the Bank of England to respond to dampen the squeeze on real incomes. However, fading growth forecasts show the danger to the economy from tightening too quickly or too far. ''
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.74%, the S & P 500 gained 0.89% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.75%.
Investors, poised for lackluster earning results from the largest U.S. banks, have been eyeing investment banking revenue, which has stalled after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February. In the first quarter, the total value of pending and completed deals fell to its lowest since the second quarter of 2020, according to Refinitiv data.
Overnight in Asia, much weaker-than-expected import data from China weighed on the outlook, but added to views that Beijing could ease policy further, helping MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.89% higher.
Japan also posted weak machinery orders data, although its stocks closed higher on the U.S. inflation data that had shown consumer prices rose by the most in 16-1/2 years in March as war in Ukraine boosted the cost of gasoline to record highs, although underlying inflation pressures moderated.
OIL, GOLD FIRMER
After the prior day's fall, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose on Wednesday and was last down 5.3 basis points to 2.674%, compared to an over three-year peak of 2.836%, before the inflation data.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 5.5 basis points at 2.334%.
`` The most important issue this year is how the Federal Reserve is going to respond to the rising levels of inflation, '' said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance in Charlotte, North Carolina.
`` Short-term interest rate expectations have jumped and long-term interest rates have moved higher. ''
In the euro zone, meanwhile, a key gauge of long-term inflation briefly breached 2.4% on Wednesday, above the European Central Bank's 2% target ahead of its next meeting on Thursday.
In response, bond yields in the bloc climbed, with Germany's 10-year yield at 0.810%.
Oil prices rose after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that on-and-off peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, fueling supply worries, with U.S. crude recently rose 3.51% to $ 104.13 per barrel.
Brent was at $ 108.64, up 3.82% on the day.
Gold bounced off its lows to add 0.6% to $ 1,978.03 an ounce.
In currency markets, the euro was last up 0.52% to $ 1.0882. The U.S. dollar soared to a nearly 20-year high against a sluggish yen on Wednesday, as aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve contrasted sharply with the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.
The greenback rose as high as 126.32 yen, its strongest level since June 2002. However, the dollar index last fell 0.455%, with the euro up 0.53% to $ 1.0883.
The New Zealand dollar was down 1.1% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points -- its most aggressive hike in over two decades -- but tempered its rate outlook.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised interest rates by half a percentage point - its biggest single move in more than two decades - and promised more hikes to fight soaring inflation that is being driven in part by the war in Ukraine.
The central bank raised its benchmark overnight rate to 1% from 0.5%. It also said it would allow government bonds it amassed during the COVID-19 pandemic to roll off as they mature from April 25, beginning what is known as quantitative tightening.
( Additional reporting by Simon Jessop and Alun John in London Editing by Kim Coghill, Alexander Smith and Chizu Nomiyama) | business |
Cameron Diaz Talks New Wine Brand and Life After Hollywood | Every product on this page was chosen by a Harper's BAZAAR editor. We may earn commission on some of the items you choose to buy.
The former actress speaks about the enchantment and peace she's found in the vineyards after leaving Hollywood. `` My life is just completely different than when I was making movies, '' she says.
Opening up a bottle of great wine at dinner with friends, or to end a long day on a good note, is something many of us enjoy, but have you ever really looked at the bottle, the ingredients in the wine, or the amount of sulfur added? That is the question Cameron Diaz and Katherine Power asked themselves one day in 2019 after enjoying a few glasses together at the former actress's home.
`` We were talking about how we were being more mindful about what was going into our bodies and on our bodies, and we looked at the wine bottle and were reminded that it's one of the only consumables without nutritional facts or serving information, '' Power says in a conversation with BAZAAR.com. `` And we just thought, Hey, we're buying organic groceries, we're choosing clean skincare products and nontoxic household products. And [ with wine ], we just kind of said to ourselves, 'This is just grapes, right? ' ''
`` We're used to turning a product around and going, 'What's in this? ' And it just isn't a practice in the wine industry, '' Diaz adds.
Driven by their desire to create more transparency in the industry, they came up with the idea for Avaline: a brand of clean wine, made with organic grapes and no secrets. The only problem was they didn't know too much about the actual winemaking process or have connections in the very niche industry.
So Diaz and Power flew to Europe to meet with organic grape farmers and winemakers who specialize in the type of taste profile they were interested in. `` We virtually and then physically knocked on doors to ask these people to work with us, '' Power says.
`` For our white wine, we really wanted something light and dry and crisp that was a little minerally, so we went to Spain, where they have limestone in their terroir and this inherent, mineral aspect to them. And we really wanted to make a very classic French rosé, so we went to France and found one of the most prominent rosé families in Provence and asked them to create a blend for us, '' she adds.
After crafting their blends in Europe, they returned home to Los Angeles to work out the bottle design and marketing strategy—but it's no surprise the former Hollywood star and the Who What Wear cofounder knew exactly what they wanted their brand to look like and the audience they wanted to target.
`` We really made it for consumers like ourselves, '' Diaz says. `` Our first step with Avaline was to create a wine that had the standards of winemaking that we wanted, but also to really just speak to the customer who values that in what they consume—like us. ''
They debuted Avaline in July 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. And now, not even two years into their venture, their wines are in more than 5,000 retail locations in the United States, and they're debuting a new look for their citrusy sharp white and their fresh French rosé: wine in a can. It's not spiked seltzer, it's not questionable flavored alcohol, it's pure Avaline wine, unaltered, and in a `` chic and cute '' package, per Diaz.
`` Honestly the cans are about convenience. The other night, I was meeting a girlfriend of mine that I knew wasn't going to have any wine, and usually for a dinner, I would take a bottle of wine, but I knew she wasn't going to have any. So I just grabbed a can and popped it in my bag and took it to dinner, and that was, like, the perfect amount for me for the evening, the perfect serving—and it literally fit in my fanny pack, '' the There's Something About Mary star says with a laugh.
Power nods. `` It's all I 've been doing, '' she admits. `` Because it's just so easy at the end of the day to pour myself a glass of wine and not open a whole bottle. It's amazing. ''
The canned wines are available online starting today, April 13, and the serving, per the founders, is a little less than two glasses per can.
While, in Diaz's words, `` Alcohol is alcohol '' and `` not a wellness category, '' she says knowing that she and Powers created the best possible version of the drink they love, and which appeals to people now, makes them proud and happy.
`` We 've built a team around the two juxtapositions, like the new world of the wine and the new world of the social media, to really make it a fresh beginning for wine marketing for our generation, for our consumers, '' she says.
`` Our friends really appreciate it, '' Power says with a laugh. `` Cameron is a wonderful chef, and we love eating and drinking wine, and just really hanging out with close friends. ''
The fact that the duo's wine is made with organic grapes and sulfur levels at less than 100 parts per million ( the amount of sulfur organic-grape wines are permitted to have) should be a selling point—and it can be, especially in California—but the term organic is also often stigmatized.
It's true many prestigious vineyards in Europe have been growing organic grapes for their wines for decades, but, again, that information is not often clarified on the label, or promoted. In the United States, there are far fewer organic-grape wines, and Power says, `` Historically, if you put organic in your label, you might end up in a weird section of the grocery store or people would assume it doesn't taste good. ''
Diaz says the stigma also comes from confusion: Organic-grape wine is not the same as natural wine, which is made without intervention or additives and can therefore yield unpredictable results. Avaline wines, while organic, do have added sulfur, to maintain the stabilization.
`` The farmers that we are using for our wines are really highly regarded winemakers, and they 've been in generational farms who 've farmed organically most of their existence … and there's so much reverence for a well-maintained vineyard, like the Côtes du Rhône, where our red comes from, '' Diaz says. `` And it's amazing, too, because they're generational farms. So everybody we met, all of our providers, all of our winemakers have grown up on those farms; like, in the homes and on the vineyard. That's what they 've done their whole lives. It's so incredible. ''
The winemaking business is a step outside the box for both Diaz and Power, but the longtime friends say it feels natural, joyful, and refreshing. `` Wine is so symbiotic with community and friendships and celebrations, and that's been really fun, to kind of rally around that, '' Power says.
For Diaz, Avaline symbolizes a new beginning and a new future. `` I mean everything about my life is different. The pace of this business is there's something new all the time, so it keeps us pretty busy in what we participate in. But, yeah, my life is just completely different than when I was making movies. It's just, I don't make movies anymore, so it's like my whole life is just like [ opens arms as if to say, `` This is what peace looks like '' ], just different. A lot less travel, a lot more sleep, my skin's clearer because I don't have so much makeup on all the time. '' | general |
Structural racism and pandemic stressors associated with postpartum depression and anxiety among Black individuals, study finds -- ScienceDaily | `` The COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on the Black community, in large part due to structural racism and its impact on the social determinants of health, and our study shows this impact extended to the effects on the postpartum period, '' said study first author Wanjikũ F.M. Njoroge, MD, Medical Director of the Young Child Clinic, Associate Chair of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in the Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, and PolicyLab Faculty at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. `` Not only does this research point to an urgent need for policies that address the pandemic's mental health effects on Black pregnant people, but it also highlights the need to follow the babies and toddlers of these people through early childhood to understand any potential impacts on their development and intervene where necessary. ''
The researchers sought to examine how the joint effects of structural and interpersonal racism, two endemic conditions, and the COVID-19 pandemic, an epidemic condition, contributed to postpartum mental health outcomes in Black individuals before and after birth. To do so, they analyzed data from a large birthing cohort participating in a longitudinal study related to the pandemic and perinatal health. Participants delivered in one of two urban hospitals within the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia. The researchers looked at data from a total of 151 Black patients to understand the impacts of multiple forms of racism on their postpartum mental health.
Participants answered a series of questions about their COVID-19 pandemic experiences, interpersonal racism, and mental health status. The researchers also used geocoding of zip codes based on census data as well as examinations of electronic medical record data to assess factors like income inequality, home ownership, education level and insurance type. Additionally, they mapped participants based on Home Owners ' Loan Corporation ( HOLC) redlining boundaries and assigned participants a risk grade from A ( minimal) to D ( hazardous) based on their street address.
The researchers found that nearly all participants ( 91%) expressed at least one significant pregnancy-related COVID-19 worry, and a large majority ( 81%) reported at least one moderate concern related to delivery and the postpartum period. A total of 44 participants ( 29%) screened positive for postpartum depression.
In their analysis, the researchers found that worse experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, reports of interpersonal racism, and living in an area of greater historical redlining were all uniquely associated with postpartum depression. Additionally, the association between racism and poor postpartum mental health was magnified with worse COVID-19 experiences. Indeed, those with more negative COVID-19 experiences combined with higher interpersonal and systemic general racism scores were at the highest risk of meeting screening criteria for postpartum depression and anxiety.
`` These findings underscore that the key to better serving Black patients is to appreciate the cascading effect structural racism has on all aspects of life, including pregnancy, '' said co-author Michal A. Elovitz, MD, co-Principal Investigator of the primary study and the Hilarie L. Morgan and Mitchell L Morgan President's Distinguished Professor in Women's Health in the Perelman School of Medicine at Penn. `` Importantly, we, as a medical community, have failed to adequately address and attend to mental health issues among birthing individuals. This study emphasizes an even additional need to focus on the mental health among Black birthing people. We are hopeful that there will be increased efforts -- both clinically and in research -- to address the impact of structural racism on the mental and physical well-being of Black individuals '' | science |
Mask Mandate on U.S. Transit Set to Expire as Omicron Cases Tick Up | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Passengers wearing masks in the subway on March 28. Photographer: Eilon Paz/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Passengers on U.S. airlines and public transit will get their first chance in more than a year to travel without a mask next week, if the federal government sticks to its current plan to let a pandemic-era mandate expire.
President Joe Biden is being urged by transportation groups and state and local officials to allow the mask rule to end, after extending it for a month through April 18 as the omicron variant added to the nation’ s Covid case count. In recent weeks, cases have started to tick up and some local governments, like in Philadelphia, reimposed indoor mask wearing.
White House and Transportation Security Administration officials are talking with their counterparts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on whether to revise or extend the mask rule. The decision will have implications for the nation’ s economy, health-care system and millions of daily commuters.
Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House’ s new Covid-19 response coordinator, said on NBC’ s “ Today ” show Monday that the CDC will come out with a “ scientific framework ” to help decide whether to keep the mask requirement in place. “ I think it is absolutely on the table ” to extend the rule, Jha said.
“ I’ m hoping that the mask mandate will come off, ” Janno Lieber, chair and chief executive officer of New York’ s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the largest mass-transit provider in the U.S., said March 24. “ Not because I have any status as an epidemiologist, but because mask mandates have come off in the rest of society. ” There’ s no longer a federal requirement for mask use in U.S. schools, restaurants, gyms and arenas.
In a joint letter to Jha last week, groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Travel Association pushed for an end to the mask requirement and the mandate for pre-departure testing for vaccinated passengers traveling to the U.S. The measures “ no longer provide the public health benefits they once did, ” it said. “ Today, these measures are imposing significant costs on the traveling public, airline employees, and the American travel and tourism industries. ”
Demand for transit across the U.S. is about 60% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the American Public Transit Association.
Some state and local transit officials, reluctant to anticipate the Biden administration decision, say they’ re preparing to run their systems without enforcing the mask rule if that’ s the guidance from the U.S. government. The list of such agencies include the Chicago Transit Authority, New Jersey Transit, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, operator of New York City’ s three major airports.
The MTA and New Jersey Transit said they will inform customers of changes to the mask mandate through social media and push notifications, while eliminating signs and public address messages on mask requirements. Officials at Miami International Airport, and federally owned Reagan National and Dulles International airports, say they will follow TSA guidance.
In San Francisco, Bay Area Rapid Transit has no plans to institute its own mask mandate. BART plans increased messaging to customers on any changes, including an ad campaign about Merv 14 air filters installed on all train cars.
“ We want riders to know there is an extra layer of protection on board trains, even crowded trains, ” BART spokesperson Alicia Trost said in an email.
An Amtrak spokesperson said the national rail system is preparing a variety of customer and employee communications in the event that TSA lifts the mandate. Amtrak will determine its own response once specific U.S. guidance is known, and a Los Angeles World Airports spokesperson said officials are reserving comment until they have confirmation of any change in the mandate.
Fewer people wearing masks likely increases the risk of riders being exposed to the virus. While omicron and its new BA.2 variant are proving highly contagious, Covid cases are below the peaks seen in December and early January.
David Young, 81, a New York City resident at the 59th Street - Lexington Avenue subway station on Tuesday, said he wants masks to stay. “ I’ d rather wear a mask than take a chance on getting Covid, ” he said.
But for many travelers, an end to wearing a mask during their commute or flight is welcomed.
“ If there’ s an indoor mask mandate for public space, there should be one for transit; but if there’ s not, then we have to think really hard about the consequences of treating transit differently ” Danny Pearlstein, a spokesperson for Riders Alliance, a transportation advocacy group, said in a phone interview. “ Continuing the mandate long after there is no indoor mask mandate generally makes people afraid of transit and makes enforcement especially complicated. ” | general |
Nanoparticles could enable a more sensitive and durable rapid COVID-19 test | Apr 13, 2022
Nanoparticles could enable a more sensitive and durable rapid COVID-19 test ( Nanowerk News) Rapid antigen tests can quickly and conveniently tell a person that they are positive for COVID-19. However, because antibody-based tests aren’ t very sensitive, they can fail to detect early infections with low viral loads.
Now, researchers reporting in ACS Sensors ( Molecularly Imprinted Polymer Nanoparticles Enable Rapid, Reliable, and Robust Point-of-Care Thermal Detection of SARS-CoV-2) have developed a rapid test that uses molecularly imprinted polymer nanoparticles, rather than antibodies, to detect SARS-CoV-2. The new test is more sensitive and works under more extreme conditions than antibody-based tests.
A 3D-printed device detects temperature changes when SARS-CoV-2 binds to molecularly imprinted polymer nanoparticles ( ruler shows cm). ( ACS Sensors)
The gold standard test for COVID-19 diagnosis remains the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction ( RT-PCR). Although this test is highly sensitive and specific, it generally takes 1-2 days to get a result, is expensive and requires special lab equipment and trained personnel.
In contrast, rapid antigen tests are fast ( 15-30 minutes), and people can take them at home with no training. However, they lack sensitivity, which sometimes results in false negatives. Also, the tests use antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 for detection, which can’ t withstand wide ranges of temperature and pH.
Marloes Peeters and Jake McClements at Newcastle University, Francesco Canfarotta at MIP Diagnostics, and colleagues wanted to make a low-cost, rapid, robust and highly sensitive COVID-19 test that uses molecularly imprinted polymer nanoparticles ( nanoMIPs) instead of antibodies.
The researchers produced nanoMIPs against a small fragment, or peptide, of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein by creating molecular imprints, or molds, in the nanoparticles. These nanoscale binding cavities had a suitable size and shape to recognize and bind the imprinted peptide and, therefore, the entire protein. They attached the nanoparticles that bound most strongly to the peptide to printed electrodes.
After showing that the nanoMIPs could bind SARS-CoV-2, they developed a 3D-printed prototype device that detects binding of the virus by measuring changes in temperature.
When the team added samples from seven patient nasopharyngeal swabs to the device, the liquid flowed over the electrode, and the researchers detected a change in temperature for samples that had previously tested positive for COVID-19 by RT-PCR.
The test required only 15 minutes, and preliminary results indicated that it could detect a 6,000-times lower amount of SARS-CoV-2 than a commercial rapid antigen test. Unlike antibodies, the nanoMIPs withstood warm temperatures — which could give the test a longer shelf life in hot climates — and acidic pH — which might make it useful for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and saliva samples.
However, to prove that the test has a lower false negative rate than existing rapid antigen tests, it must be tested on many more patient samples, the researchers say.
Source: American Chemical Society
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The great Canadian personal finance quiz | Tech ETFs give investors exposure to a still fast-growing area of the market.
If there’ s any silver lining to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’ s that an increasing number of investors are thinking more carefully about the impact their holdings are having on the world.
It doesn’ t matter if you look at the last three years or the last 30, U.S. technology has consistently been one of the best performing sectors in the world.
Many of us will look back on 2020 as a year of great hardship and we may all be eager to turn the calendar and hope for brighter news for the world in 2021. If your finances took a hit or you want a new start for your money, here are 10 things to consider.
Your tax filing may be different this time around because of the COVID-19 pandemic. One piece of advice: Start estimating now whether you may or may not owe money to the government.
It’ s never too early for business owners to start thinking about their end game — after all, you eventually want to enjoy the fruits of your hard work. There’ s a lot to consider. Here’ s a checklist to get you started.
COVID-19 has left many young workers and students unemployed and returning to the safety of their childhood homes. If you are the parent of a teen or young adult whose launch has been interrupted, here are some ways you may help.
If your teenager has a part-time job, you may wonder if they need to file a tax return. Even if it’ s only pocket change, there are some compelling reasons to begin your lifelong relationship with the Canada Revenue Agency.
For many women, balancing career and family priorities is a constant challenge. But a global pandemic has pushed us all to become more creative about how we approach work-life balance.
At each stage of life not only do your life goals shift but so too does your financial focus. At age 25, budgeting may be your most important concern. At age 50, your tax strategy may dominate your thinking. Fortunately, a greater knowledge of finances can allow people to make more informed choices.
So, before you make your next money move, here’ s a chance to test your financial know-how. We hope this may be an opportunity to learn and motivate you to apply your knowledge to your financial scenarios with fresh eyes.
1) What percentage of your annual income can be contributed to your Registered Retirement Savings Plan ( RRSP)? A. There is no limit B. 18% of your income, with some exceptions ( 1) C. 10% of your net worth D. $ 6,000
Investing in mutual funds and other investments within an RRSP can be a great method to benefit you and your family now and in the future. RRSP contributions can lower your taxable income and may even help contribute to a tax refund annually. With annual contributions over time, investments within an RRSP can provide a method of compounding savings to fund your retirement years. You can continue to contribute to an RRSP until the end of the calendar year when you reach the age of 71.
2) The principal residence exemption is….? A. A tax exemption for seniors who sell their home B. A deduction for those helping their children with their first home C. A tax credit for home renovations D. A tax exemption from capital gains on a primary residence
When you sell property, any capital gains are taxable. This could be a major burden for those selling real estate because the gains on real estate could be large ( especially given the current housing market). Fortunately, the principal residence exemption grants an exception for your primary residence or family home ( under certain conditions). If you have more than one property, it’ s best to consult a financial advisor on how you can manage the principal residence exemption or other tax strategies.
3) How old does a child have to be to have a Registered Education Savings Plan ( RESP) set up for them? A. One year old B. One year old but younger if their sibling has an RESP C. No age minimum so long as the child has a Social Insurance Number D. No age minimum as long as a parent has an RRSP
The fact that you can begin contributing to an RESP at year one of a child’ s life means you have a number of years to contribute to your child’ s education before they actually need to use the funds. The Canada Education Savings Grant is also available, to a maximum $ 500 annually ( up to $ 7,200 in total). Annual contributions can be invested — they may compound over time and can offset future educational costs.
4) The most important advice a financial advisor can give you is about: A. Retirement planning B. TFSAs C. Paying for a child’ s post-secondary education D. All of the above
Members of a typical household may have their hands full balancing today’ s needs with tomorrow’ s plans. Often, it’ s a juggle between short and long-term goals: paying bills, stashing money away for a child’ s education or even ensuring you’ ll have an enjoyable retirement. A financial advisor can provide options around budgeting, saving and planning out your goals. With investing, a financial advisor can discuss your risk tolerance, time horizons and financial aims to see what products are right for you.
5) The best method for calculating how much income you need for retirement is…? A. Your highest maximum income, less 10% annually B. 7% of your savings annually, times 25 years in retirement C. It depends on the value of your home and when your kids move out D. It’ s based on your personal situation and tied to your retirement goals
Retirement planning is probably one of the major goals in life: What you do with savings and investing in the first two-thirds of your life may influence what options you have in the last third. And your family, your finances and your wishes and intentions are unlike anyone else’ s, something no standard formula can capture. That’ s why it may be best to consider seeking out a financial planner who can help shape a goal-based financial plan. It can take care of your current needs but also help you achieve your objectives when you are no longer working.
6) When there is economic uncertainty, avoiding the stock market is the best method to keep your money safe over the long term.
During economic uncertainty, some investors may panic and liquidate their investments in the hope they can avoid a market sell-off. In a study, TD Asset Management suggests what can happen when investors try to time the market and are on the sidelines during periods of growth: If you had missed out on 1% of the best market days between 1989 and 2019, your portfolio would provide a significantly lower performance. You can read more about, The power of staying invested.
7) When a parent passes on assets to an adult child in a Will, the child is taxed on property they receive but not RRSPs or Tax-Free Savings Accounts ( TFSAs) under the Canadian Inheritance Tax.
A. Correct B. Incorrect: The beneficiary doesn’ t need to be a child C. Incorrect: Art works will also be taxed D. Incorrect: There is no Canadian Inheritance Tax
It’ s a trick question but many Canadians may be unsure how taxes work when assets get passed down to family members named in their Will. While beneficiaries don’ t pay tax on any assets received, that does not mean that taxes won’ t impact the estate. Anyone wishing to pass on a legacy to their family will want to consider how to organize their money, property and other assets to mitigate taxes when they pass away. These are things a professional planner may be able to help you with.
8) Fact check: At age 60, you must withdraw your investments from your TFSA. A. Yes, correct B. No, but you must withdraw 7% per year C. No, there is no age limit on when you need to withdraw funds D. No, but you must make an entire withdrawal at age 65
One of the valuable aspects about TFSAs is that there is no age maximum when you must stop contributing. As well, you never lose contribution room if you don’ t add to your TFSA one year. In fact, even if you make a withdrawal, that withdrawal amount will be added back to your TFSA contribution room at the beginning of the following year.
Financial literacy is a skill that can provide immediate benefits. Knowing how best to utilize registered accounts like RRSPs, TFSAs and RESPs can ease some of the anxiety around long-term financial goals such as retirement or saving for a child’ s education. But putting all your financial responsibilities and wishes together can be complex: A discussion with a financial advisor can provide you with suitable recommendations that match your unique situation.
1. Your annual contribution limit is related to how much you earn. For 2021, the RRSP contribution limit is 18% of your previous year’ s earned income, up to the maximum amount of $ 27,830 ( a number set each year by the government), plus previous unused contribution room less any pension adjustments
DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein has been provided by TD Wealth and is for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual's objectives and risk tolerance. TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking ( offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and TD Wealth Private Trust ( offered by The Canada Trust Company). All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. ® The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. | general |
Oil rises as tight supply outweighs bearish demand signals | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Oil rose above US $ 104 with traders seeing a global supply deficit even as the International Energy Agency lowered its global demand growth estimates because of China’ s renewed lockdowns.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3.6 per cent on Wednesday, extending its recent rally above US $ 100 a barrel. The IEA said that OPEC+ members have only managed to provide 10 per cent of their promised supply increases for March. In the same report, the agency cut its forecast for the world’ s crude needs this year after Beijing reimposed lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19.
China’ s cabinet said it would cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio in a further sign that the country’ s central bank is likely to add monetary stimulus to boost the economy, according to state-run TV. That should support demand in the world’ s biggest oil importer once lockdowns are eased.
“ There is a supply and demand imbalance, ” in markets right now and that’ s “ going to be supportive of prices, ” said Quinn Kiley, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly US $ 8 billion in energy-related assets.
Oil has experienced extreme volatility and fluctuations in the past few months as markets track developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Even before the war, the oil market was robust as the recovery in demand from COVID-19 helped to drain inventories, leading prices to skyrocket. With higher energy prices fanning inflation, governments recently announced plans to tap strategic oil stockpiles in an attempt to quell rising prices.
“ The market does look more balanced, but we have to remember that oil demand continues to grow this year, ” given the recovery from COVID-19, Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’ s oil market division said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “ With all the uncertainty on both the demand and the supply side, the SPR releases go some way to create comfort for the market. ”
Oil temporarily pared some of its gains as U.S. crude stockpiles rose 9.38 million barrels, the largest build in over a year, though much of that increase was attributed to moving inventories from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial inventories. That build was also offset by declines in both gasoline and distillates.
This U.S. legislation is a game changer: Curaleaf executive chairman
U.S. democratic senators to unveil draft cannabis reform bill on Wednesday: Report | general |
2 years later: What's next in security for the pandemic-era workforce | Organizations can expect the return-to-work model to stress a corporate infrastructure that has languished in recent years.
When businesses left the office in 2020, they left security strategies — long relied upon — behind.
IT departments lost control of the connectivity path of employees, which made the cybersecurity controls and tools that were centralized on internal networks less effective — or even useless.
To keep business operations running, organizations became more reliant on public cloud and SaaS applications, with some rushing into digital transformation before the proper security mechanisms were in place.
Security teams now had to deal with a new infrastructure without perimeters.
In tandem with these new security challenges came a spike in cyberattacks. The FBI reported a dramatic increase in cybercrime complaints during the first year of the pandemic, thanks largely to more sophisticated ransomware attacks.
As organizations tweak their workplace models, cybersecurity will continue to shift. As long as there are workers returning to the office, companies can expect the return-to-work model to stress a corporate infrastructure that has languished in recent years.
This shift will create security challenges in the same way that work from home created secure remote access challenges during the start of the pandemic, according to Rajiv Pimplaskar, president and CEO of Dispersive Holdings.
`` The return to office or hybrid work paradigm should balance secure remote access needs with core infrastructure and resiliency to ensure great user experience, and security everywhere, '' said Pimplaskar.
With few exceptions, businesses will likely never return to the days when everyone worked in a single office or a central location. Many workers are fighting to stay remote full time, while many companies are offering employees the chance to split their work schedules between remote and onsite.
Hybrid workforces will also require a shift in cybersecurity culture. It's going to mean meeting people where they are and understanding the limits of any cybersecurity approach.
`` A holistic, cultural approach is needed to ensure that organizations are devoting the talent and resources necessary to protect themselves and their customers from falling victim to compromise both today and in the future, '' said Chris Clements, VP of solutions architecture at Cerberus Sentinel.
For example, it's unfair to expect non-security professionals to spot sophisticated phishing attacks, yet that's what was asked of employees while they worked remotely. Security awareness training is effective, up to a point.
This became apparent during the lockdown period when employees didn't have the normal security support system available and phishing attacks weaponized COVID-19 fears and no one was readily available to ask for help.
Threat actors have long relied on phishing as a popular attack vector, and the pandemic didn't change that.
`` Phishing has always been a reliable way for threat actors to gain initial access to their victims, but during the pandemic it's absolutely exploded in volume, '' said Clements.
One report by security firm F5 found phishing rose by 220% during the pandemic when compared to previous yearly averages, and it is expected that phishing will continue to increase around 15% annually once COVID-19 levels out and things return closer to normal.
Another shift in threats since the pandemic has been the targeting of remote access systems and cloud services with credential stuffing attacks. While multifactor authentication has always been the most effective control against credential attacks, there are threat actors now using MFA as an attack vector.
`` I 've actually responded to a breach since the pandemic began in which a user approved an attacker's sign in through an MFA prompt, '' said Clements.
Attackers can spam multiple login attempts, which in turn send so many approval prompts that even the most security-knowledgeable user may inadvertently approve the request with an inadvertent tap.
If there's a lesson for cyber executives emerging from the pandemic, it's to be fluid with security.
Recent history has proven that threat actors will get past an initial line of defense — if not on the first try, but the second, third or tenth. They will find the organization's weakest link and exploit it.
In the past, organizations tended to react after the incident and look for the weaknesses as part of the mitigation process.
Moving forward, workers can expect to see zero trust take a more prominent role in security systems and processes. Zero trust on devices and network access will be the one constant for remote, onsite and hybrid workers.
Organizations also need to focus on the fundamentals of security, according to Snehal Antani, CEO and co-founder of Horizon3.ai. That includes good identity and access hygiene, continuous assessment, and the adoption of a purple culture – using offensive actions to inform defensive actions and focus their efforts on the issues most likely to impact their business first.
`` Organizations need to build a multi-year security roadmap to help ensure they're not only focused on how to protect themselves from incidents today, but also for the future of cyberthreats, '' said Antani.
Businesses are pushing for better scalability and new features in their central provisions systems.
IT is still consulted, but line of business managers make the final call.
Businesses are pushing for better scalability and new features in their central provisions systems.
IT is still consulted, but line of business managers make the final call. | tech |
China’ s Imports Drop, Export Growth Slows on Covid Lockdowns | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Trucks parked at the Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, Jan. 11, 2022. China vowed more measures to stabilize trade as pressure builds on the government to bolster the economy amid worsening domestic Covid outbreaks. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s imports unexpectedly fell in March and export growth slowed, with Covid lockdowns disrupting port operations and curbing business activity and spending.
Imports fell 0.1% from a year earlier in dollar terms, the first drop since August 2020 and well below the median forecast for a 8.4% rise. Exports grew 14.7%, customs data showed Wednesday, higher than the 12.8% forecast but slower than the 16.3% increase in the first two months of the year.
The data shows the effect the lockdowns are having on trade. Port congestion and logistical bottlenecks worsened in March, impacting both inbound and outbound shipping traffic. Several businesses, including Apple Inc. supplier Foxconn Technology Group and automakers like Tesla Inc., halted production during the month.
“ The imports side took a hit more heavily from the disruptions on production and logistics caused by the lockdowns, ” Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd., said in a note. “ The soaring commodity prices since the Ukraine war might also start to dampen imports demand. ”
Imports of edible vegetable oils, meat, iron ore and auto parts had the steepest declines in the first quarter compared to a year earlier. Imports of medicines, textile and cosmetics also fell in the first three months by less than 10%, while the value of purchases of crude and refined oil, coal and natural gas all jumped.
The foreign trade environment is becoming increasingly severe and complex, Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the customs administration, told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday. Greater efforts will be needed to achieve the goal of stabilizing trade, he said.
March data benefited from several weeks of trade before the mid-month start of lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities. The hit from lockdowns will be fully reflected in April and possibly May.
Slower export gains will intensify pressure on the government to boost demand via investment. It should also push the People’ s Bank of China to ease credit conditions further by cutting rates and the required reserve ratio.
Strong export demand helped to propel China’ s economy out of its Covid slump early in 2020 and then drove better-than-expected economic growth in 2021. Global demand is holding up for now, with South Korea’ s exports, a leading indicator of world trade, rising to a record in March.
However, the World Trade Organization lowered its trade projections Tuesday, warning that Russia’ s war with Ukraine will slow the global recovery and reduce demand for goods trade. It added that Beijing’ s strict response to Covid outbreaks threatens to slow growth and exports from the world’ s No. 2 economy.
The trade surplus was $ 47.4 billion for the month. Earlier, China’ s customs administration reported trade in yuan terms. Exports climbed 12.9% in March while imports fell 1.7%.
As the Covid outbreak and supply chain disruptions continue, “ the weak domestic demand today will show up in trade data in the coming months, ” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd.
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Rishi Sunak’ s Rating Sinks After U.K. Mini-Budget and Wife’ s Bad Press | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Boris Johnson, left, and Rishi Sunak. Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images, Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
( Bloomberg) -- Rishi Sunak’ s favorability rating turned negative for the first time, sinking below that of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, after a slew of damaging stories about the Chancellor of the Exchequer’ s financial affairs and the perception he isn’ t doing enough to help Britons facing surging living costs.
Sunak posted a net rating of minus 20 in the latest monthly tracker poll by Savanta ComRes, published on Wednesday. That’ s down 26 points in a month, and compares with a high of plus 30 in 2020. The online poll of 2,145 U.K. adults was conducted April 8-10, before both the chancellor and Johnson were fined by police for breaking the coronavirus rules their own government made.
The survey is the latest blow for the chancellor, who made himself popular by opening the Treasury’ s spending taps during successive Covid-19 lockdowns and until just weeks ago was widely touted by politicians and the press as Johnson’ s most likely successor.
He’ s been criticized -- including by members of his own party -- for failing to help the most vulnerable families cope with a cost of living crisis when he gave an economic statement last month.
Then last week came a series of damaging revelations, including that his wife Akshata Murthy, holds non-domiciled status in the U.K., meaning she doesn’ t pay British taxes on her foreign earnings. Under intense pressure, the daughter of an Indian billionaire, Infosys Ltd. co-founder Narayana Murthy, later said she would now do so.
Sunak was also forced to acknowledge he had held a U.S. green card until October 2021 -- by which time he’ d been chancellor for more than a year and a half. Along with his wife’ s tax status, the news fueled the perception that the family didn’ t see their long-term future in the U.K.
“ The fact we’ ve seen such a drop in favorability during a tumultuous month for the chancellor ultimately points to the fact that all public goodwill he may have built up during the pandemic has all but evaporated, ” Savanta ComRes Political Research Director Chris Hopkins said. “ A 26-point drop in one month feels unprecedented, ” yet could have been even worse if the polling had been carried out after Sunak was fined, he said.
Meanwhile Johnson’ s rating increased for a third month, to minus 19 points. Some 34% of people surveyed said they would vote in an election for the ruling Conservatives, while 40% opted for the main opposition Labour Party.
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As rates go up, so will the stress test: Ratehub.ca | general |
EUROPEAN MIDDAY BRIEFING - Stocks Waver as Investors Digest Inflation Data | MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European stocks wavered as investors digested inflation data and its possible impact on monetary policy
The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 was flat. British supermarket chain Tesco declined 5.3% after it said it expects lower profit as rising prices change shoppers ' habits.
Stocks have come under pressure in recent days as concerns about inflation drove uncertainty about how aggressively the Federal Reserve could act to temper it. A data release on Tuesday showed that consumer prices accelerated further in March, rising 8.5% from a year earlier. The monthly increase was in line with economists ' expectations and core inflation which excludes food and energy was slightly lower than predicted, according to Deutsche Bank.
`` The market is swinging quickly to try and price 'peak inflation. ' The assumption is that the yield curves in places such as the [ U.S. ]... has already moved higher to such an extent, that their respective central banks are now just 'filling in the gaps. ' Markets, after all, are forward-looking, '' said Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at broker Oanda.
`` However, it just isn't that simple, '' Halley added. `` The environment for equities remains challenging. '' The analyst cited the Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China as headwinds, with uncertainty lying ahead for the coming U.S. earnings season.
Stocks to watch:
French luxury-goods group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE beat expectations with its first-quarter revenue update. Strong organic growth was driven by the core fashion business, though other divisions including watches and jewelry also performed above consensus forecasts. Read the analysts ' comments here.
-- -
Darktrace's third-quarter update brings annual recurring revenue growth of 46% and revenue growth of 50%, with guidance raised once again, Jefferies said.
The U.K. cybersecurity company's metrics were supported by growth of 37% in customer numbers, implying a continued improvement in annual recurring revenue per customer, the U.S. bank said.
Given Darktrace's strong momentum, the company increased its fiscal 2022 guidance for annual recurring revenue, revenue and adjusted Ebitda, Jefferies said.
Jefferies withdraws its rating and price target on Darktrace's shares, noting that up to 20 million shares are likely to be placed soon given the post-IPO lock-up expires in May. Shares were up 3.6%.
Data in focus:
Consumer prices in the U.K. rose more than expected in March, squeezing consumers ' real incomes further and warranting another rate rise by the Bank of England in May, said Rupert Thompson, investment strategist at Kingswood.
The inflation rate rose to 7% in the 12 months to March, the highest rate since 1992 and up from 6.2% in February, official data showed. Thompson stresses that price gains were widespread, with core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rising to 5.7% from 5.2% in the same timeframe.
`` The data make another 0.25% rate hike on 5 May all the more certain and will exacerbate the cost of living squeeze, '' he said in a note.
Market Insight:
The market's pricing of two full 25 basis point interest rate rises by the ECB by year-end `` seems like a reasonable scenario to us, '' Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at Pimco, said in a note ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
The asset manager doesn't expect the ECB to take any significant monetary policy decisions at this week's meeting, but the next set of macroeconomic staff forecasts in June `` will likely provide the ECB cover to end net asset purchases in July, '' Veit said. He sees a first interest rate rise by the central bank in September as a plausible scenario.
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Data showing the annual U.K. inflation rate rose to 7% in March supports another interest rate rise by the Bank of England at the central bank's next meeting on May 5, said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, part of Raymond James European strategy team.
The uptick in consumer prices was largely driven by transport costs, with average petrol prices rising by 12.6 pence per litre between February and March, the biggest single monthly increase since records began in 1990, he said.
Inflation could hit 8% in April, reflecting the higher energy price cap raising gas and electricity prices. However, `` there is some hope in that official forecasts suggest April's consumer price index data may represent the peak, '' he said.
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UniCredit's global leading indicator declined in March to levels consistent with global trade almost stagnating in 2Q. It was the first decrease after four monthly rises in a row, leaving the indicator at its lowest level since October.
This drop reflects the negative impact from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, according to UniCredit. A further deterioration is likely, the Italian bank said.
`` Furthermore, given the rather lackluster development in the last few months, global trade might already come in stagnation territory in 2Q, '' UniCredit said.
The March reading is consistent with global trade rising a mediocre 0.7% on an annualized 3-months-on-3-months basis compared to its long-term average growth of between 4% and 5%, the bank said.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures rose ahead of earnings reports from major companies and as investors considered the highest inflation in four decades.
`` The inflation data was obviously not great, but maybe we're around the peak and we 'll start to see something of a disinflationary trend over the coming months, '' said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at FlowBank. `` With bank earnings kicking off, we can get some direction. It's really going to be about the guidance that we get for the rest of the year. ''
JPMorgan, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines and Bed Bath & Beyond are slated to report Wednesday ahead of the opening bell. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo are set to follow on Thursday.
The U.S. producer-price index for March, another gauge of inflation, is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Forex:
The dollar rose as traders continue to bet on the Fed raising interest rates more aggressively even after data on Tuesday showed underlying inflation eased slightly in March.
The dollar briefly fell after the U.S. Labor Department said core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month in March after a 0.5% rise in February.
`` We do not expect the March CPI on its own to alter the Fed's current plans for faster policy tightening in the near-term, '' MUFG Bank currency analyst Lee Hardman said in a note.
The dollar's decline on Tuesday was a correction rather than trend reversal, he said.
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The euro could rise considerably if ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks at Thursday's meeting prompt the market to bet on an interest-rate rise as early as June, Ebury said.
Lagarde is likely to reiterate that the ECB will raise rates `` some time '' after asset purchases end but she could flag increased concerns over the persistence of high inflation, Ebury analysts said.
`` Should the market perceive Lagarde's comments as leaving the door open to a hike at either of the June or July meetings, then the euro would likely rally rather sharply, particularly given the current suppressed value of the euro. ''
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Sterling fell against the dollar after data showed U.K. inflation accelerated in March, adding pressure on already squeezed household incomes. U.K. inflation rose to an annual rate of 7.0% in March from 6.2% in February, above the 6.7% expected by economists in a WSJ survey.
`` The figures will add further pressure to the Bank of England to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases, even though the growth outlook has deteriorated, '' BRI Wealth Management's Dan Boardman-Weston said in a note.
The sharp rise in the cost of living, higher taxes and rate increases are hitting consumer demand, he said.
Bonds:
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged up to 2.784% from 2.724% on Tuesday, resuming its march upward after declining the day before.
European government bonds sold off with the benchmark German 10-year bond yield rising to 0.857%. The European Central Bank is meeting on Thursday and investors are awaiting more clarity on plans to curb stimulus measures.
`` ECB speakers have turned a little bit more hawkish lately, '' said Jeremy Gatto, a multiasset investment manager at Unigestion. `` They seem now to be agreeing that inflation might be a concern. It's difficult to get excited about Europe. ''
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Euro corporate bond markets are likely to trade steady ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, said UniCredit's research team. `` European corporate credit investors are likely to be in wait-and-see mode during today's session, '' analysts at the Italian bank said in a research note.
Even if they don't expect any policy changes at this Thursday's Governing Council meeting, they expect euro credit markets to remain largely unchanged in the run-up to the event.
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U.K. 10-year borrowing costs rise after official data Wednesday showed inflation hit a new three-decade high of 7% in March.
The 10-year gilt yield rose to 1.809% after the announcement, from the prior day's close of 1.802%, albeit failing to surpass Tuesday's intraday high of 1.906%, according to Tradeweb.
Rising fuel prices drove the annual consumer price index up to 7% in March, up from 6.2% in February and beating economists ' expectations in a WSJ survey of 6.7%.
Commodities:
Oil edged higher after Russia casts doubt on the success of Ukraine peace negotiations, while weak data from China capped gains. Vladimir Putin said peace talks were at a `` dead end, '' dashing hopes that a diplomatic solution could end the conflict and ease the oil market's supply crunch.
Data showed China's imports fell by 0.1% on year in March, sharply missing expectations for an 8% rise, as a lockdown in Shanghai took a toll on the nation's economy.
( MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-13-22 0630ET | business |
Texas Gov. Abbott's migrant bus discharges passengers at D.C. building housing Fox News, NBC News, C-SPAN | The first bus filled with dozens of undocumented immigrants from Texas arrived in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, a week after Gov. Greg Abbott vowed to transport migrants in the U.S. illegally to the nation’ s capital.
The bus arrived in Washington around 8 a.m., parking blocks away from the U.S. Capitol
in front of a building
that houses Fox News, NBC News and C-SPAN.
The migrants exited the bus one by one, except for family units who left together, according to Fox News, whose cameras captured the arrival live. Officials cut off wristbands before the migrants were released.
“ To help local officials — because communities are being overwhelmed by hordes of illegal immigrants who are being dropped off by the Biden administration — Texas is providing charter buses for these illegal immigrants who have been dropped off to Washington, DC, ” Abbott said in announcing the move last week.
“ We are sending them to the United States capital, where the Biden administration will be able to more immediately address the needs of the people that they are allowing to come across our border, ” the Republican governor added.
The Texas Division of Emergency Management is leading the effort to transport the migrants from federal custody to the District of Columbia. Each bus will have capacity and supplies to transport up to 40 migrants.
The charter buses were dispatched last week to border communities in the Rio Grande Valley and Terrell County and picked up migrants who volunteered to be transported.
One group was reported on social media to have recognized that they were being used for political purposes but consented to the bus trip as their ultimate destination was Florida, where the group aimed to apply for asylum.
When migrants are released from federal custody after crossing the border — having avoided expulsion — they are typically given paperwork allowing them to remain in the U.S. They are also issued an order to appear in immigration court to make their case for asylum.
The Biden administration
criticized Abbott’ s bus maneuver on Thursday
, with White House press secretary Jen Psaki calling it a “ publicity stunt. ”
“ His own office admits that a migrant would need to voluntarily be transported, and then he can’ t compel them to because, again, enforcement of our country’ s immigration laws lies with the federal government and not a state, ” she said.
Abbott has required inspections of commercial vehicles entering the state from Mexico, since many of them, he claimed, “ smuggle immigrants and other illegal cargo into Texas and onto our roads. ”
Abbott admitted last week that the measure will not “ dramatically slow traffic from Mexico, ” but said it will “ immediately help ensure that Texans are not in danger. ”
Truckers have since protested the order, blocking north- and southbound lanes on international bridges — causing more delays.
The White House slammed Abbott over the inspections on Wednesday, calling them “ unnecessary and redundant ” and accusing him of causing “ significant disruptions to the food and automobile supply chains, delaying manufacturing, impacting jobs, and raising prices for families in Texas and across the country. ”
“ Local businesses and trade associations are calling on Governor Abbott to reverse this decision because trucks are facing lengthy delays exceeding 5 hours at some border crossings and commercial traffic has dropped by as much as 60 [% ], ” Psaki said in a statement. “ The continuous flow of legitimate trade and travel and CBP’ s ability to do its job should not be obstructed. Governor Abbott’ s actions are impacting people’ s jobs, and the livelihoods of hardworking American families. ”
The new Texas measures were announced days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it would lift the Trump-era Title 42 order on May 23. The order has allowed border agents to expel thousands of migrants without hearing asylum claims due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Several border officials and bipartisan lawmakers have since warned that lifting the order will only increase illegal crossings, and strain border towns and cities already overrun by new arrivals.
A version of this report appears on NYPost.com.
MarketWatch contributed. | business |
Uniqlo owner's results seen as bellwether for China shutdown impact | China is Fast Retailing's biggest overseas market, with 863 stores on the mainland, almost 90 outlets in Shanghai, where stringent lockdown measures, introduced in late March, remain in place to contain the country's worst outbreak of the pandemic.
Fast Retailing is due to report six-month results through end-February, and COVID conditions in China have only worsened since the first quarter, when the company said profits from China slid dramatically.
The restrictions impact global brands like McDonald's and Starbucks, which each have dozens of outlets in Shanghai, but also disrupt the production hubs of major clothing retailers including Fast Retailing, H & M, and Nike.
Retailers have tried to speed up transportation of their goods out of Asian production hubs following log jams at ports in the United States last year.
But now the same thing is happening in Asia, with container ships lined up outside ports waiting to get in, said Keith Jelinek, managing director of performance improvement for the Berkeley Research Group.
`` These lockdowns in China have shut down a lot of production for manufacturing, so there's going to be this long timeframe to build all that back up, and that's a concern, '' he said.
Fast Retailing has more Uniqlo stores in China than in its home market of Japan. The fast fashion retailer opened a flagship store in Beijing in November, its third megastore in mainland China, and plans to open 100 locations in the country each year going forward.
China makes up about 60% of Fast Retailing's overseas revenue. The company decided to close about 50 stores in Russia following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
`` The Shanghai lockdowns will impact current quarter more than last quarter, '' said Mark Chadwick, a Japanese equity analyst who publishes on the Smartkarma platform.
`` I wonder to what extent ( Fast Retailing) saw these lockdowns coming and were able to adjust production. If not, expect to see markdowns and lower gross margins going forward, '' he added.
( Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Jane Merriman) | business |
Namibia Follows South Africa in Hiking Rate on Inflation Worries | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Namibia’ s central bank lifted its key interest rate for a second straight meeting to safeguard its currency peg with South Africa’ s rand and help counter inflationary pressures stemming from Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine.
The monetary policy committee increased the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, Governor Johannes! Gawaxab told reporters in the capital, Windhoek, on Wednesday. That follows a hike in February that started unwinding some of 2020’ s extraordinary monetary policy stimulus that was aimed at supporting an economy ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic.
The move comes in the wake of a decision by the South African Reserve Bank last month to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-point. The arid southwest African nation forms part of a common monetary area with South Africa, with the rand legal tender and monetary policy and foreign-exchange rules often guided by the SARB’ s actions.
While inflation slowed in February to 4.5%, the central bank sees it averaging 6% this year, up from its previous forecast of 4.4%. That’ s after supply shocks arising from the war in Ukraine fanned oil and food prices. Gasoline prices rose 11% in April.
“ The monetary policy stance is also a step towards normalizing the current negative interest rate that is conducive to long-term economic growth, ”! Gawaxab said.
While the hike should safeguard the nation’ s currency peg, curb inflation and bolster the attractiveness of local assets to offshore investors as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other developed market central banks tighten monetary policy, it may temper an already fragile economic recovery.
The bank left its economic growth forecast unchanged at 3%.
International reserves stood at 40.8 billion Namibian dollars ( $ 2.8 billion) at the end of March, compared with 43 billion Namibian dollars a month prior. That’ s enough to cover 5.5 months of imports and sufficient to help maintain the currency peg,! Gawaxab said.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike its key lending rate by half a percentage point Wednesday, bringing its overnight rate to one per cent.
Realtors and economists alike see a shifting tide after Canada’ s home prices surged by more than 50 per cent over the past two years.
U.S. consumer prices rose in March by the most since late 1981, evidence of a painfully high cost of living and reinforcing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively.
Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge suggested on the eve of the central bank's policy decision that there's no time to waste if Governor Tiff Macklem wants to `` break the psychology '' of runaway prices. | general |
COVID-19 therapy: Better in combination than alone: How a well-known drug can become a game changer -- ScienceDaily | SARS-CoV-2 infections continue to result in hospitalizations. According to estimates by the Robert Koch Institute, the current COVID-19 hospitalization rate is approximately six to seven per 100,000 of the resident population. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients now have access to a range of drugs which can reduce the severity of the disease or, in the most severe cases, reduce the risk of death. Some of these drugs target the virus itself; others fight the inflammation associated with infection.
First-line treatments include monoclonal antibodies and dexamethasone, a drug with strong anti-inflammatory properties. Antibody treatments neutralize the virus by sticking to the surface of its spike protein, preventing it from entering human cells. This type of treatment is used within seven days after symptom onset. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients who require oxygen therapy usually receive dexamethasone, a glucocorticoid which, for approximately 60 years, has been used to treat inflammatory conditions caused by an overactive immune response. In COVID-19, too, the drug has been shown to reliably dampen the body's inflammatory response. However, as the drug is associated with various side effects, including an increased risk of fungal infections, it should only be used in a specific and targeted manner.
Researchers from Charité, the MDC's Berlin Institute of Medical Systems Biology ( BIMSB) and FU Berlin have now studied the mechanisms of action of both types of treatment. `` We uncovered evidence to suggest that combination therapy of antibodies and dexamethasone is more effective than either of these treatments alone, '' says first author Dr. Emanuel Wyler, a researcher at the BIMSB's 'RNA Biology and Posttranscriptional Regulation ' research group, which is led Prof. Dr. Markus Landthaler. As not all lung compartments can be studied using lung tissue samples obtained from patients, the research group's first step last year was to search for a suitable model. That task fell to co-last author Dr. Jakob Trimpert, a veterinarian and research group leader at the FU Berlin's Institute of Virology, who subsequently developed COVID-19 hamster models. As animals which both contract the same virus variants as humans and develop similar disease symptoms, hamsters have proven the most important non-transgenic model for the study of COVID-19. Symptoms and progression, however, vary between different species of hamster. While symptoms usually remain moderate in Syrian hamsters, for example, Roborovski hamsters will develop severe disease reminiscent of that seen in COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care.
`` In the current study, we tested the effects of single and combined antiviral and anti-inflammatory therapies for COVID-19, meaning we used the existing models with monoclonal antibodies, dexamethasone, or a combination of the two, '' explains Dr. Trimpert. The FU Berlin's veterinary pathologists then examined infected lung tissue under a microscope to establish the extent of lung tissue damage. Dr. Trimpert and his team also determined the quantities of infectious virus and viral RNA present in the tissues at various time points. This enabled the researchers to check whether and how viral activity might change over the course of treatment. `` Thanks to a detailed analysis of various COVID-19 parameters, which is only possible in an animal model, we were able to improve our understanding of the basic mechanisms of action of two important COVID-19 drugs. Moreover, we found clear evidence of the potential benefits associated with a combination therapy of monoclonal antibodies and dexamethasone, '' says Dr. Trimpert.
Using single-cell analyses, the researchers demonstrated the drugs ' effects on the complex interplay of various cellular signaling pathways and the number of immune cells present. Individual cells obtained from a particular sample were loaded onto a chip, where they were first barcoded and then encapsulated into minute droplets of aqueous fluid. Once prepared, the single cells underwent RNA sequencing, a process used to establish the sequence of genetic building blocks which a cell has just read. Thanks to barcoding, this RNA is later identifiable as originating from a particular cell, enabling the researchers to determine cellular function at the single-cell level with a high degree of accuracy. `` We were able to observe that the antibodies are effective at reducing the amount of virus present, '' explains Dr. Wyler. He adds: `` This was not much use in our model, though. '' This is because it is not the virus that damages the lung tissue, but the strong inflammatory response triggered by the virus. The immune cells fighting the invading pathogens release messenger substances to call in reinforcements. When these defensive forces arrive in large numbers, the lungs can become clogged. `` Obstructed blood vessels and unstable vessel walls can subsequently result in acute lung failure, '' explains Dr. Wyler.
A surprise came in the shape of the well-known drug dexamethasone. `` This anti-inflammatory exerts a particularly strong effect on a specific kind of immune cell known as neutrophils, '' says the study's co-last author Dr. Geraldine Nouailles, Research Group Leader at Charité's Department of Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine. Neutrophils are a type of white blood cell responsible for mounting a prompt response to viral and bacterial infections. `` The corticosteroid preparation suppresses the immune system and prevents the neutrophils from producing messenger substances which would attract other immune cells, '' explains Dr. Nouailles. She continues: `` This makes the drug extremely effective at preventing an escalation of the immune response. ''
The best treatment outcomes were achieved when the researchers administered a combination of antiviral and anti-inflammatory treatments. `` This type of combination therapy is not included in existing clinical guidelines, '' emphasizes Dr. Nouailles. `` What is more, current guidance stipulates that, in high-risk patients, antibody therapy can only be given in the first seven days following symptom onset. In clinical practice, dexamethasone is only used once a patient requires oxygen therapy, i.e., at an extremely advanced stage of the disease. Its use in combination, however, opens entirely new treatment time windows. '' This new approach must now be evaluated in clinical trials before it can be adopted in clinical practice. | science |
Skittish Stock Traders Are Bracing for $ 2 Trillion Option Expiration | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A trader looks over computer monitors as he works in the Cboe Volatility Index ( VIX) pit on the floor of the Cboe Global Markets, Inc. exchange in Chicago, on Feb. 14, 2018. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg, Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Inflation is surging, central banks are on the move and now it’ s earnings season. To top it all off, stock traders face the market-roiling potential of a monthly options expiration estimated at more than $ 2 trillion.
Roughly $ 495 billion in single-stock derivatives are set to expire Thursday, with another $ 980 billion of S & P 500-linked contracts and $ 170 billion in options tied to the State Street fund tracking the S & P 500 all running out as the holiday-shortened week ends, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’ s Rocky Fishman. Such volumes have been a source of volatility in the past year.
While nothing is ever assured in markets, indexes have exhibited a consistent pattern of declining on days when contracts are closed out. This time around, it comes as stocks are suffering through yet another bout of volatility, with the S & P 500 notching only four positive days since the start of the month.
It isn’ t out of the ordinary to get a monthly expiration on a Thursday in April, but other “ wrinkles arise because it can coincide with tax day and the start of earnings season, both of which we’ re getting now, ” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. The deadline for Americans to file their tax returns is April 18.
With monetary and fiscal support receding, investors have been hunkering down -- and the mood has turned gloomy. A survey by Bank of America Corp. showed fund-manager optimism about global growth is at a record low. The greatest number since 2008 are predicting a stagflationary period of lower growth and still-high inflation. Sentiment is “ poor, ” said the bank’ s strategist. Managers remain in the “ ‘ sell-the-rally’ camp, ” and view the selloff that started the as just an “ appetizer. ”
Others are dialing back their optimism. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’ s Marko Kolanovic, once a steadfast bull, said investors who previously raised stock holdings should now take profits and shift some money to government bonds. Truist Advisory Services’ Keith Lerner downgraded his view on equities, cutting them to neutral from attractive, while saying that the range of potential economic and market outcomes was “ unusually wide. ”
A cautious stance is prevalent in single-stock data, too. The 20-day average of Cboe’ s put-call volume ratio for single stocks has risen from a four-month low, showing an increase in moves to hedge against price drops. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of prices on S & P 500 options, has swung wildly this month, from as low as 18.6 to as high as 24.37. It was in the middle of that range as of 3:50 p.m. Wednesday.
“ Given the backdrop of political uncertainty and supply-chain issues, I think it’ s not an easy time, particularly for the equity markets, ” Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist at AlphaSimplex, said in a phone interview. Inflation, for instance, “ has more room to run than most people would like to think. They keep thinking everything is just going to go back to normal and I think it could take quite a while. ”
Mushrooming options volume has been a regular feature of post-pandemic markets. Bullish options contracts became a favorite tool of retail traders who spent the Covid lockdowns trading from their phones. Now, amid choppier markets, demand for bearish options has been growing. Contracts tied to declines in State Street’ s S & P 500 ETF and the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF have started to rise again, with put open interest on the high-yield fund surging.
To be sure, Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, says this time around, there’ s likely to be less single-stock impact than in the day-trading frenzy of the past two years. Investors who bought puts in January and February when the market was selling off are way out of the money now, he says, which could mute the impact of expirations on market moves.
His team says a total of 85 million U.S.-listed option contracts are set to expire Thursday, an 8% decrease from a year ago. Single-stock contracts are down 12% year-over-year. “ We are seeing a lot less of the meme stock trading compared to last year, that’ s the major culprit, ” Murphy said.
Meanwhile, index and ETF contracts increased 7% and 3%, respectively, versus year-ago levels. “ This is likely due to more of a focus on the macro environment and more hedging, ” he said.
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Canada's big banks didn’ t waste much time following the Bank of Canada’ s lead, announcing Wednesday afternoon they will raise their prime rates half a percentage point to 3.2%, effective Thursday.
The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in its biggest hike in 22 years and said rates are poised to move significantly higher as it moves aggressively to wrestle inflation down from a three-decade high.
It’ s decision time for the people who control the fate of one of Canada’ s biggest-ever mergers. | general |
Bay Street braces for half-point rate hike by the Bank of Canada | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike its key lending rate by half a percentage point Wednesday, bringing its overnight rate to one per cent.
It would mark the biggest jump in its benchmark rate since May 2000, and signal Governor Tiff Macklem’ s willingness to combat surging consumer prices.
Canada’ s inflation rate soared 5.7 per cent year-over-year in February, according to Statistics Canada. That was the fastest pace in three decades as many global supply chains remained snarled by pandemic-related disruptions. More recently, Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine has added to inflationary pressures.
The Canadian economy and labour market, however, have proven resilient despite a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in many regions.
The Bank of Canada’ s latest Business Outlook Survey showed many firms cited labour shortages and supply chain problems for hampering their ability to meet consumer demand.
Seventy per cent of respondents to the survey also said they expect consumer prices to rise more than three per cent annually over the next two years. By contrast, the Bank of Canada’ s goal is to maintain inflation within a band of one to three per cent, while targeting the midpoint of that range.
Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said in an interview Tuesday that the bank should move “ very expeditiously ” on interest rates.
“ Whether that is ( hiking) 50 points a session, whether it's 75 then 50, or whatever — I can't comment on, but it's quite clear that if we're going to break the psychology that inflation is gon na go up and up and up, the bank has something to do here and that is to get those rates up fairly smartly, '' he said.
Calls have been growing among Bay Street forecasters, including economists at Canada’ s big banks, for the central bank to deploy a half-point hike amid runaway inflation expectations.
“ Reading between the lines, it seems like inflation expectations are gradually becoming unmoored, ” wrote Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Securities, in a note to clients on April 4.
“ Even though respondents see inflationary pressures fading as the pandemic and supply chain disruptions subside, the Bank of Canada needs to be on high alert to keep longer-term expectations anchored, ” he said. | general |
Here’ s How China’ s Lockdowns Are Rippling Through the Economy | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A medical worker swab tests a resident during a round of Covid-19 testing in a neighborhood placed under lockdown in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. China hasn't budged in its opposition to living with the virus even in the midst of the country's worst outbreak, but its leaders are now pursuing an easier containment strategy in the uphill battle to tame the hyper-infectious coronavirus. Photogorapher: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s lockdowns to contain the country’ s worst Covid outbreak since early 2020 have battered the economy, stalling production in major technology and financial hubs like Shenzhen and Shanghai, and halting spending by millions of people shut in their homes.
The restrictions are intended to eradicate any trace of the virus in the community, but they’ ve also pressured everything from manufacturing and trade to inflation and food prices.
Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly warned of risks to economic growth, telling local authorities on Monday they should “ add a sense of urgency ” when implementing existing policies. The government is holding firm to its Covid Zero approach for now, a strategy economists say will push growth down to 5% this year, below the official target of around 5.5%.
Here’ s a deeper look at how the lockdowns are impacting critical sectors across the world’ s second-largest economy.
China posted sluggish commodities imports in March, as elevated prices due to the war in Ukraine and tightening virus restrictions took their toll on demand.
Natural gas purchases were worst affected, dropping below 8 million tons to their lowest level since October 2020. Crude and coal purchases were also running well behind last year’ s schedule.
China’ s domestic metals fabricators are facing hurdles to transport raw materials and finished products, which have led to output cuts. Six out of twelve copper-rod plants in Shanghai’ s neighboring provinces surveyed by Shanghai Metals Market earlier said they either have halted or plan to halt output. The researcher also predicted a rise in aluminum inventories.
Meanwhile, Chinese buyers have slashed liquefied natural gas purchases in the world’ s biggest LNG importer as prices soar and domestic demand stalls. Imports in the first quarter fell 14% from the same period last year, according to shipping data, and private companies are spurning offers to use once-highly coveted slots at state-owned receiving terminals.
Shanghai’ s city-wide lockdown has created congestion at the world’ s largest port, with queues of vessels building there and at other stops handling diverted shipments. The number of container ships waiting off Shanghai as of April 11 was 15% higher than a month earlier, according to Bloomberg shipping data.
A shortage of port workers in Shanghai is slowing the delivery of documentation needed for ships to unload cargoes, according to ship owners and traders. Meanwhile, vessels carrying metals like copper and iron ore are left stranded offshore as trucks are unable to send goods from the port to processing mills, they said.
Data on Wednesday also showed the lockdowns having a notable impact on imports, which fell 0.1% on year in March, the first contraction since August 2020.
China’ s purchasing managers surveys show manufacturing contracted in March, with small and medium-sized firms particularly shaken by operational snags. The Caixin index, based on surveys of smaller, export-oriented businesses, dropped to its worst level since the start of the pandemic two years ago.
Some large manufacturing firms have been able to keep operations going by adopting a so-called closed loop system, in which employees were kept at factory locations and tested regularly. However, those protocols aren’ t perfect: One member of a European Union trade group said last week that work can be “ very, very difficult, ” even with permission to operate amid restrictions.
Some technology companies have suspended production as China’ s restrictive policies weigh on a sector already contending with a shortage of components.
Most major tech manufacturers -- from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and iPhone maker Foxconn Technology Group -- froze operations in the early days of Shanghai’ s outbreak. Many have since resumed after setting up closed-loop systems.
Logistics jams are constricting shipments of components, draining inventories to the point where some manufacturers including Pegatron, Wistron Corp. and Compal Electronics Inc. are down to just a few weeks’ stocks, consultancy Trendforce estimates. The ongoing global supply crunch could worsen if local manufacturing is disrupted, constraining stock of computers and gaming consoles to smartphones, servers and electric vehicles.
Overall passenger vehicle sales slid 10.9% last month, suggesting pressure in the massive car market.
Some automakers are hitting production snags because of lockdowns. Tesla Inc.’ s Shanghai factory has been shut down since March 28 because of restrictions in the city. The plant typically produces more than 2,000 cars every day, according to an estimate earlier this month from Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc.
Volkswagen AG was also forced to suspend production in Shanghai this month, while Chinese EV upstart Nio Inc. said Saturday it halted production and delayed deliveries because many suppliers had to close shop.
Auto parts maker Robert Bosch GmbH said Monday it shuttered two of its factories in China and operated closed-loop systems at two others, adding that it was seeing “ temporary effects on logistics and supply chain sourcing. ”
Domestic sales of excavators -- a leading indicator for construction -- plunged almost 64% in March from a year ago, indicating strain in the sector.
China’ s home sales slump also deepened last month: The 100 biggest companies in the debt-ridden property industry saw a 53% drop in sales from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. The decline was the steepest this year.
Steel rebar inventory in China suggests construction activity “ may have shifted to a lower gear, ” according to analysis published last week by David Qu, an economist covering China for Bloomberg Economics.
The lockdowns have driven up food costs and may endanger the nation’ s ability to secure enough grains for the year as the curbs complicate China’ s important spring planting season.
Fresh vegetable prices jumped 17.2% on year in March, compared to a drop of 0.1% in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed this week. Chinese farmers in some parts of the northeast, which produces more than a fifth of China’ s national grain output, have had to contend with restrictions that prevent them from plowing their fields and sowing seeds. | general |
Singapore’ s MAS Tightens Policy Amid Global Inflation Fight | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore building in Singapore, on Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2021. Singapore is seeking to cement itself as a key player for cryptocurrency-related businesses as financial centers around the world grapple with approaches to handle one of the fastest growing areas of finance., Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Singapore’ s central bank tightened monetary policy settings, furthering the global fight against inflation that threatens the recovery of consumer and business activity from the pandemic.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages the exchange rate of the local dollar as its main policy tool, raised the slope and re-centered its policy band higher, it said in a statement Thursday. The moves are the first time since April 2010 that the MAS tightened policy by using both tools at the same time.
Coming after a surprise tightening in January, Thursday’ s decision is seen helping insulate the trade-reliant economy from Russia’ s war-induced supply disruptions. That would be achieved by allowing the local dollar to appreciate, buffering the impact of imported inflation.
“ This tighter monetary policy stance, which builds on the policy moves in October 2021 and January 2022, will slow the inflation momentum and help ensure medium-term price stability, ” it said in the statement.
Singapore has been on the forefront of central banks in Asia acting to combat rising price pressures. While many global peers led by the U.S. Federal Reserve began tightening earlier this year, most Asian policymakers, particularly outside China and Japan, have just begun pivoting away from supporting post-pandemic recoveries toward fighting inflation.
Core inflation, which strips out costs of private transport and accommodation, probably will rise 2.5% -3.5% in 2022 compared with the MAS January forecast for 2% -3%. All-items inflation in 2022 likely will be 4.5% -5.5%, versus earlier expectations of 2.5% -3.5%.
The MAS has a unique approach to monetary policy. Rather than using interest rates to maintain price stability, it guides the local dollar within a policy band against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
Policy is set by adjusting the slope, or pace of appreciation, as well as the width and center of the currency band. Since the outset of the pandemic until October’ s tightening, it had set the slope at 0%, implying that it wasn’ t seeking currency appreciation.
The monetary policy statement was announced at the same time as the government’ s advance reading of first-quarter gross domestic product. The economy during January-March grew 3.4% from the same period a year ago, compared with a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for a 3.8% expansion.
Singapore has seen relatively brighter growth prospects than neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, particularly as recent loosening of Covid-era mobility restrictions has breathed fresh life into the battered food and beverage and hospitality sectors. The lifting of the city-state’ s outdoor mask requirement, resumption of nightlife and relaxation of travel policies have buoyed expectations that the trade-reliant city-state can lead regional economies in treating Covid as endemic.
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Canada's big banks didn’ t waste much time following the Bank of Canada’ s lead, announcing Wednesday afternoon they will raise their prime rates half a percentage point to 3.2%, effective Thursday.
The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in its biggest hike in 22 years and said rates are poised to move significantly higher as it moves aggressively to wrestle inflation down from a three-decade high.
It’ s decision time for the people who control the fate of one of Canada’ s biggest-ever mergers. | general |
Malaysia’ s Hibiscus Explores Singapore SPAC Listing | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
The skyline in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Tuesday, May 12, 2021. Malaysia will follow a standardized protocol nationwide to make it easier for people to comply with social-distancing procedures as the nation bolsters efforts to stem a new wave of Covid infections. Photographer: Samsul Said/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd. is considering listing a special purpose acquisition company in Singapore that could raise as much as S $ 200 million ( $ 147 million), according to people familiar with the matter.
The Malaysian independent oil and gas explorer has held talks with potential advisers on the potential SPAC initial public offering, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is confidential. The blank-check company, which could raise S $ 150 million to S $ 200 million, will look for acquisition targets in the renewable energy sector, the people said.
Discussions are at an early stage and the Kuala Lumpur-based company could decide not to proceed with the plan, the people said.
“ As part of this long term energy transition strategy, we are looking at all forms of funding structures, ” a representative for Hibiscus said in response to Bloomberg News queries, adding no decision has been made. The company declined to comment on a SPAC listing plan.
Singapore’ s IPO market has been dominated by SPAC listings this year. Blank-check companies raised about $ 316 million through first-time share sales in the city-state, accounting for 95% of all the funds raised via IPOs in the country, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Hibiscus itself was the first SPAC to be listed on the Malaysian bourse in July 2011. It became an oil and gas exploration firm a year later after acquiring a 35% stake in Lime Petroleum Plc, whose assets included concessions in the Middle East. The company has since grown its portfolio to include energy assets in Australia, Malaysia, the U.K and Vietnam, according to its website.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike its key lending rate by half a percentage point Wednesday, bringing its overnight rate to one per cent.
Realtors and economists alike see a shifting tide after Canada’ s home prices surged by more than 50 per cent over the past two years.
U.S. consumer prices rose in March by the most since late 1981, evidence of a painfully high cost of living and reinforcing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively.
Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge suggested on the eve of the central bank's policy decision that there's no time to waste if Governor Tiff Macklem wants to `` break the psychology '' of runaway prices. | general |
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast as China Reimposes Lockdowns | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Nearly-empty roads during a lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. China hasn't budged in its opposition to living with the virus even in the midst of the country's worst outbreak, but its leaders are now pursuing an easier containment strategy in the uphill battle to tame the hyper-infectious coronavirus. Photogorapher: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand this year after China reimposed lockdowns to contain the spread of a resurgent coronavirus.
With the weaker demand outlook and the massive release of emergency oil reserves by IEA members, the agency now sees global markets in balance for much of the year. Crude prices have already lost most of their gains since Russia’ s attack on Ukraine, to trade near $ 100 a barrel in New York on Wednesday.
“ Prices are now back to near pre-invasion levels, but remain troublingly high and are a serious threat for the global economic outlook, ” the IEA said in its monthly report. While the market looks balanced now, “ the outlook is mired in uncertainty. ”
The Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies, lowered projections for world fuel consumption this year by 260,000 barrels a day, with a particularly steep reduction of 925,000 a day for China in April. Still, global demand remains on track to increase this year.
The IEA also dialed back estimates for the loss of Russian supplies from an international boycott over its military aggression. Production in April may be 1.5 million barrels a day lower than the prior month -- roughly half the drop that was previously expected. Those losses may still double in May, the IEA said.
Oil surged well above $ 100 a barrel following Russia’ s attack on its neighbor. While prices have eased, they are still high enough to stoke inflationary pressures and exacerbate a cost-of-living crisis for millions of consumers. To counter this, IEA members announced last week that they will deploy 240 million barrels from emergency reserves, the biggest stockpile release in the agency’ s history.
World oil consumption will expand by 1.9 million barrels a day to average 99.4 million a day this year, according to the IEA. China’ s fierce “ zero Covid ” policy has diminished demand growth, as millions are locked down in their homes, imports drop and business activity slows in the world’ s second-biggest economy.
The IEA noted that Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have refused to open the taps faster, partly from a belief that markets didn’ t face a genuine shortage, and partly to preserve the OPEC+ coalition they lead with Russia.
OPEC+ members managed to provide just 10% of the supply increase scheduled for March, according to the IEA. The 19 coalition members, which have been engaged in a pact to stabilize markets since the start of the pandemic, added a mere 40,000 barrels a day as diminished investment erodes production capacity across the group.
The clash over policy between OPEC+ and the IEA -- which has openly expressed disappointment with the cartel’ s inaction -- came to a head last month with OPEC abandoning the agency as one of its data sources.
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hike its key lending rate by half a percentage point Wednesday, bringing its overnight rate to one per cent.
Realtors and economists alike see a shifting tide after Canada’ s home prices surged by more than 50 per cent over the past two years.
U.S. consumer prices rose in March by the most since late 1981, evidence of a painfully high cost of living and reinforcing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively.
Former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge suggested on the eve of the central bank's policy decision that there's no time to waste if Governor Tiff Macklem wants to `` break the psychology '' of runaway prices. | general |
Another Year and Another Respiratory Infection: 2022 Prospects for Tuberculosis Control in the Shadow of COVID-19 | Right now, a highly transmissible respiratory infection is spreading across the world, thriving among marginalized populations and in poorly ventilated spaces. The infection can cause cough, fever, shortness of breath. The world is eager to forget about it and move on, yet the infection continues to cause mass sickness and death whether or not we pay attention.
No, not that one. We’ re talking about the other respiratory plague of our time: tuberculosis ( TB).
While the COVID-19 pandemic has understandably consumed global health attention and resources, TB has faded even further into the background of our collective consciousness. TB, unlike COVID-19, is characterized by long-term transmission and progression over the course of years and decades–not days and weeks. The TB burden rises as a slow tide, not a tsunami; it can therefore continue to kill en masse without ever feeling like an emergency. But until COVID-19 hit in 2020, TB ranked as the world’ s leading infectious disease killer, causing 1.5 million deaths each year—overwhelmingly in low- and middle-income countries.
Until COVID-19 hit in 2020, tuberculosis ranked as the world’ s leading infectious disease killer, causing 1.5 million deaths each year—overwhelmingly in low- and middle-income countries.
Last month the world commemorated World Tuberculosis ( TB) Day with the theme “ Invest to End TB. Save Lives. ” But the needed investment is not forthcoming; expenditure on TB consistently misses the mark: in 2020, spending was less than half the $ 13 billion by 2022 target—and TB deaths increased in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade.
TB, once highly prevalent across Europe and North America, has largely been forgotten in the West but remains a heavy burden in low- and middle-income countries. Now, as rich countries vaccinate ( and boost) their populations against COVID-19, lift restrictions, and slowly return to “ normal, ” we risk leaving low- and middle-income countries behind without sufficient vaccines, tests, and treatment capacity. Will TB history repeat itself with COVID-19 as rich countries move on?
The emergence of COVID-19, and subsequent efforts to curb infection rates and respond to outbreaks, has diverted already limited focus away from TB control. Progress has been reversed: the 2021 WHO Global TB Report indicates that TB mortality has worryingly risen—and already vulnerable populations are at increased risk.
Case notifications of people newly diagnosed with TB sharply declined by 18 percent between 2019 and 2020. This might sound like good news—less TB! —but it likely just means that more cases are going undiagnosed because of the COVID-19 strain on health systems and health workers, coupled with fear of contracting COVID-19 at health facilities. A WHO study from March 2021 estimated reduction of 21 percent in TB care in 2020 – significant disruptions which could cause an additional 500,000 TB deaths.
Overall progress in the TB fight has stalled and reversed. Few End TB Strategy milestones for 2020 were reached; many did not even come close. How long will it take to make up for lost gains? Is the damage reversible? And how will we control if the frequency and severity of future pandemics increases?
Despite this bleak picture, the COVID-19 pandemic may yet offer some silver linings for TB control—both in helping us directly address the disease and by inspiring us to “ think big ” about needed TB innovation.
We now have a better understanding of the spread and transmission dynamics for airborne diseases. Some of the same investments and strategies that helped with COVID-19—for example, better ventilation, especially in congregate living settings—could increase long-term respiratory safety across pathogens.
Some of the same investments and strategies that helped with COVID-19 could increase long-term respiratory safety across pathogens.
We’ ve also seen with COVID-19 how fast-paced innovation can dramatically reduce the global disease burden. Thus far, innovations in TB prevention, diagnostics, and treatments have been severely lacking. We’ re still forced to make due with a 100-year-old vaccine with limited effectiveness in preventing primary infection nor reducing transmission. We can do better with sufficient investment. Typical vaccine development timelines take 5 to 10 years, but COVID-19 vaccines came to market in under a year—a heroic but apparently achievable accomplishment if there is sufficient financing, collective will and collaboration.
We’ ve also observed how rapid, self-testing for COVID-19 can transform diagnosis and care pathways—allowing people to prevent onward transmission and quickly begin effective therapeutics. We desperately need similarly simple and affordable tools for TB diagnosis, which currently requires burdensome blood, sputum, or skin tests. We think this is scientifically feasible in the short-to-medium term, and we’ re currently working on an investment case to incentivize just this kind of innovation. Stay tuned!
And finally, we need better TB therapeutics. Recent advances in COVID-19 treatment have been a game changer for those with access; if taken early, Paxlovid reduces the chance of hospitalization by 88 percent. The good news is that TB is also treatable; the bad news is treatments are sub-optimal due a general ambivalence toward the disease at the global level, and a resulting lag in innovation to develop new therapeutics. Today, people with TB must take drugs for anywhere from six months to two years—and do so consistently—to avoid developing drug-resistant TB. Drug resistant TB can require more than 14,000 pills on top of daily injections for six months, depending on the severity of the case, putting significant burden on patients and health care systems. Though there have been several highly promising breakthroughs for TB treatment in the past decade ( bedaquiline, delamanid, and pretomanid, to name a few) there’ s a question of access and deployment.
CGD’ s proposed market-driven value-based advanced commitment ( MVAC) for TB is designed to produce a better therapy—one based on health technology assessment ( HTA) dependent on country-specific conditions, commitment guarantees, industrial policy alignment, and a credible governance structure—by mobilizing private sector R & D investments based on market purchasing power in emerging economies. But we’ ve also seen that therapeutics are worthless without broad access among populations in need, which is why the MVAC proposal is designed to ensure locally affordable prices for LMIC governments.
Many of the activities discussed in this blog—disease prevention, diagnosis, and control—are attributes of high-performing, well-funded health systems. And investments in TB programs, much like investments in control and prevention for any disease, have far-reaching, complementary benefits across health systems.
Strengthening health systems at the country and community level also builds in resilience so that when crisis situations arise, the existing infrastructure can absorb the shock, thus mitigating any detrimental impacts on TB and other care. The long-term nature of case management for TB ( typically more than 6 months) requires stability and consistency in care, making care in crises all but impossible.
We’ ve seen the consequences of this unfolding in real time in Ukraine, a country with an already high rate of TB infections—32,000 people develop active TB per year, one third of which are drug resistant. The combination of COVID-19 and Russia’ s invasion, and consequent implosion of the public health system, have disrupted treatment for thousands and experts have warned of a potentially devastating TB problem in Ukraine.
The current situation for TB is bleak, but the prospects can be bright if we decide to invest and break the cycle of panic and neglect. Investment in strong health systems—including real-time data and dashboards—is critical to protect against outbreaks of both existing and emerging infectious disease threats. We still do not know the extent of the damage COVID-19 disruptions have had or will have on progress towards TB control, but as the world pivots from recovering from COVID-19 towards preparing for new health threats, diseases like TB should not be left behind.
CGD blog posts reflect the views of the authors, drawing on prior research and experience in their areas of expertise. CGD is a nonpartisan, independent organization and does not take institutional positions. | general |
South Korea Picks Harvard-Educated Conservative as Top Diplomat | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Yoon Suk-yeol, presidential candidate from the People's Party, during a presidential debate at the SBS studio in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, Feb. 25, 2022. South Korea elects a new president on March 9., Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- South Korea’ s president-elect picked a veteran lawmaker with experience in international relations to be his foreign minister, as he plans a hawkish course in diplomacy and closely aligns with Washington on North Korea and China.
Yoon Suk Yeol, who takes office on May 10, selected Park Jin to be the top diplomat for his new conservative government. Park showed a “ high-level expertise ” on diplomacy and security matters, Yoon said at a news conference Wednesday.
The president-elect, a former prosecutor and diplomatic novice, sent a delegation led by Park to Washington this month for meetings with U.S. officials aimed at recalibrating ties after outgoing progressive President Moon Jae-in sought rapprochement with Pyongyang and steered clear of backing policies that targeted China -- South Korea’ s biggest trading partner.
If approved, Park could be tested quickly. North Korea is showing signs it might soon conduct its first nuclear test in five years. South Korean media is reporting that U.S. President Joe Biden could visit Seoul late in May, seeking the help of allies to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and provide a check to security threats posed by China.
Park, who tested positive for coronavirus after his trip to Washington, did not attend the news conference. In a text message to reporters, he said he would realize Yoon’ s diplomatic vision to make South Korea play a role for “ freedom, peace and prosperity. ”
Park is a four-term conservative lawmaker who helped steer a trade deal with the U.S. through parliament more than a decade ago. He worked briefly for the foreign ministry early in his career and holds a degree from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Park, a close confidant on the campaign trail for Yoon, will also be facing a rift with Tokyo left from the Moon administration over disputes between the neighbors rooted in Japan’ s 1910-1945 colonial rule over the Korean Peninsula. Yoon will likely call on Park to make good on his campaign pledge to participate in Biden’ s supply chain initiative.
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korea’ s leader, threatened South Korea with a nuclear strike if it tried to attack, in what appeared to be an effort to justify future provocations to challenge Yoon. The president-elect said on the campaign trail he would be ready to launch a preemptive strike on the neighbor to the north to stop an impending attack.
Canada joins U.S., U.K. in diplomatic boycott of Beijing games
Trudeau weighs auto-content rules as next U.S. trade flashpoint
Unused to volatility, young investors may dread a downturn. Here's how to prepare | general |
China’ s Exports to Russia Slump After Invasion of Ukraine | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s exports to Russia slumped in March after the invasion of Ukraine even as shipments to other nations grew quickly, indicating Chinese companies are likely being cautious about trading with Russia.
Chinese firms sold $ 3.8 billion worth of goods to Russia in March, official data showed Wednesday, a 7.7% drop from a year earlier. That was the lowest amount since May 2020, when global trade was badly affected by the outbreak of Covid-19.
The two nations declared their friendship had no limits earlier this year when Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met before the invasion of Ukraine, and since the attack China has said it will continue normal trade relations. However, the increasing sanctions on Russia by many nations, the slump in the Russian currency and U.S. efforts to stop Russia from using the dollar has probably pushed Chinese firms to hold back on exports.
Imports from Russia rose 26.4% from a year ago, likely pushed higher by rising commodity prices. China mainly buys oil, gas, coal and agricultural commodities from Russia and sells electronic equipment, machinery, and vehicles. Details on the actual goods moved across the border in March will be released later in the month.
China received 188,000 tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia in March, down from 273,000 tons a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While China has been steadily increasing gas imports from Russia since supply of its first Russian gas contract started in late 2019, that volume is less than 11% of what it imported from top supplier Australia in March, according to Bloomberg’ s shipping data.
Imports in March may have dropped due to Russia’ s seasonal pipe maintenance works and China’ s covid outbreaks, but will likely rise by 3 billion cubic meters this summer, from 10bcm in 2021, to keep Gazprom PJSC on track to reach full capacity of 38bcm by 2024, according to Lujia Cao, a gas analyst with BloombergNEF. Just before the invasion, PetroChina Co. inked its second gas contract with Gazprom.
In 2021, China’ s total trade with Russia grew 36% to $ 147 billion, official data showed, with the nations’ leaders agreeing to boost this to $ 250 billion when they met in February. | general |
BNN Bloomberg's mid-morning market update: April 13, 2022 | The Bank of Korea raised its key interest rate on Thursday, brushing aside concerns about a leadership vacuum and global risks to the economy as the board focused instead on resuming its struggle against escalating inflation.
Chinese President Xi Jinping says his government will stick to its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic costs mount.
Singapore’ s central bank tightened monetary policy settings, furthering the global fight against inflation that threatens the recovery of consumer and business activity from the pandemic.
Oil steadied after a two-day surge as the fallout from Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine continued to ripple through a tight global market.
Consensus is building among Tokyo market watchers that the yen can extend losses past its 20-year low to 130 per dollar in coming months, before it steadies.
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Betches parlays social media acumen into canned cocktail line | First published on
Between 2019 and 2020 alone, the canned cocktail category grew 50%, according to industry tracker IWSR. Growth of this category was largely driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, as going out for cocktails at a bar was largely not an option. While the category is still relatively small, it is expected to swell and reach between $ 3 billion and $ 4 billion in revenue in coming years, per Bank of America Securities ' forecast.
Betches ' entrance into the alcohol space is unique, as the company's core focus currently centers around digital media and social content. However, the company's massive social media presence, largely made up of younger women, may help to encourage interest in the new line of canned cocktails.
`` We're excited to introduce Faux Pas to our audience because we made it specifically for them, '' Jordana Abraham, co-founder of Betches and chief innovation officer, said in a press release. `` My co-founders, Aleen Dreksler and Sami Sage, and I are especially proud to create an alcoholic beverage that we feel appeals to women the way no other drink in the market does. We're especially proud to have made a drink that celebrates female friendships grounded in realness and laughing together at our faux pas. ''
Buyers of canned cocktails tend to skew female and younger, as women make up 60% of buyers. Consumers in the millennial age group comprise about 62% of buyers followed only by Gen Z, which makes up 23% of the market. However, Gen Z is seen to have the largest growth potential in this category, suggesting Betches is in a good position to expand its presence with its core consumer base through the new product.
– Sara Karlovitch
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European Gasoline Flows to U.S. Slip Amid Pain at the Pump | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- European gasoline shipments to the U.S. typically rise in April, in the run-up to America’ s summer driving season. Not this year.
With U.S. gasoline prices averaging more than $ 4 a gallon, consumers are cutting back, and that’ s affecting the trans-Atlantic fuel trade. Shipments from Europe have dropped to 346,000 barrels a day in the first ten days of this month -- 23% below the level observed for all of April 2021 -- tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“ U.S. oil products demand has been sadly weak because of high pump prices, said Richard Matthews, head of research at E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. in London. “ With gasoline prices quite firm in the U.S., demand has weakened for the last few weeks, ” he said.
To be sure, the past few years have not provided an easy measuring stick. In April 2020, lockdowns in most parts of the world demolished fuel demand. And this time last year, Covid vaccines aiding the recovery were just starting to become widely available.
Still, with the exception of 2020, gasoline flows from Europe to the Americas this month are set to be the lowest for any April since 2018.
At least three tankers hauling the fuel to New York were diverted to other regions in recent days. U.S. gasoline demand remains muted for the time of year, on a 4-week average basis, data from the Energy Information Administration show.
And stockpiles in the Central Atlantic region, which includes New York Harbor, are at the lowest seasonal level since 2011, according to the EIA.
A tight diesel market could also be a factor hampering gasoline flows from Europe. Refiners have adjusted their operations to make up for an anticipated shortfall in diesel exports from Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine.
“ As a result of high crude runs, particularly in the U.S., more gasoline is being produced, and this is meeting a large proportion of domestic demand, reducing the need for imports from Europe ”, said Jonathan Leitch, an oil market analyst at Turner, Mason & Co.
But he added: “ High prices may well put a cap on summer driving demand for gasoline. ”
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Canada's big banks didn’ t waste much time following the Bank of Canada’ s lead, announcing Wednesday afternoon they will raise their prime rates half a percentage point to 3.2%, effective Thursday.
The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by half a percentage point in its biggest hike in 22 years and said rates are poised to move significantly higher as it moves aggressively to wrestle inflation down from a three-decade high.
It’ s decision time for the people who control the fate of one of Canada’ s biggest-ever mergers. | general |
The end of an era: from globalisation to autarky | You are currently accessing Investment Week via your Enterprise account.
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That is certainly the way it feels right now. Until recently, the world has been on a multi-decade path of greater integration, both at the geopolitical level and so far as economic activity is concerned. Indeed, since the start of the new millennium, globalisation has gathered momentum and, until Trumpism, Brexit and Covid-19, it was a dominant factor driving financial markets.
As predicted by Adam Smith, the Scottish economist and philosopher, the pursuit of comparative advantage supported and enhanced the wealth of nations. While there was sometimes vigorous debate around the fair distribution of the benefits of global trade, few doubted that globalisation was a better economic development model than protectionism.
Supply shortages resulting from COVID related lockdowns, followed by the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, have challenged the idea of globalisation.
Indeed, history may well record 2022 as the turning point when globalisation was replaced by autarky as the dominant mode of thinking.Autarky is the idea of self-sufficiency. Originally expounded by Stoic philosophers such as Seneca, it has latterly come to mean the pursuit of economic independence. Russia and its allies are being forced into autarky through western sanctions. But at the same time, the priority of liberal nations has turned towards food and energy security. In time the scope will no doubt expand to include raw materials and intellectual property. Looking at the votes cast on the UN resolution inviting nations to deplore Russian aggression in Ukraine provides an idea as to how nations might line up should the world fracture into two competing ideological and economic blocks. Although 141 members voted for the resolution, 40 either abstained or voted against it, including China and India.Faced with a change in era, how should investors be thinking about investment strategy? Not just what to do today or tomorrow but how to reorientate investment policy to take account of this move from globalisation to autarky. Tactically, all discretionary investment managers and fund managers are currently seeking to protect investor capital as volatile financial markets react to the daily news flow. They are well placed to perform that function and investors should avoid trying to second guess their managers and time exit and re-entry into stocks, sectors and markets.
As capital allocators, we are concentrating on the strategic implications of a rapid reversal of globalisation.
We are examining our return and risk assumptions for equity and bond markets both at home and abroad. Strategically, clients should be seeking to open dialogue with their managers and advisers on whether changes in investment policy are necessary or desirable given the prospect of a multi-year reversal of globalisation. Income, total return and risk assumptions for equity and bond markets both at home and abroad may need to be adjusted to reflect a radically changing geopolitical and economic environment.
We collect real-time data from 350,000 client portfolios and more than 120 managers who are responsible for around £1.5trn of assets under management. In March, our manager sentiment survey showed that they are repositioning. This has been gradual - a year ago sentiment was more pronounced towards emerging markets whereas today in common with the far east and Europe net sentiment is down by around 25%.
However, there is no need for investors to rush into making wholesale changes amid the current uncertainty. There is however a need to reassess how a new era, or Zeitenwende as it is being described by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will change financial risks and rewards for investors.
The bad news is that this new era of autarky is likely to bring with it higher inflation, slower economic growth and, on average, lower real returns from both bond and equity markets. The good news is that a reversal in globalisation should deliver significant investment opportunities for actively managed portfolios for investors nimble enough to identify tomorrow's winners today.
All eyes on the Fed: Industry reacts at US inflation hits 8.5%
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BoC is 'giving us the medicine we deserve, even if it doesn't taste great ': Scotiabank's Perrault | Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante said Monday grocery store flyers will be delivered only to residents who request them, marking a win for environmentalists and prompting criticism from the company behind the advertisements.
Newfoundland and Labrador forecast a $ 351-million deficit in its budget tabled on Thursday, projecting a significant drop in oil royalties for the 2022-23 fiscal year at a time when oil prices are skyrocketing.
The national office-vacancy rate rose to a record 16.3 per cent in the first quarter, according to a report by commercial real estate brokerage CBRE.
Ontario residents aged 60 and older will be eligible for a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose starting Thursday.
The feds are planning a bill that would force tech companies to pay local news publishers for content, the latest move to help struggling media companies that have seen online ad revenue drain away to Silicon Valley.
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What China gets wrong | IT IS OFTEN said that China’ s government plans decades ahead, carefully playing the long game as democracies flip-flop and dither. But in Shanghai right now there is not much sign of strategic genius. Even as the rest of the world has reopened, 25m people are in a citywide lockdown, trapped in their apartments and facing food and medical shortages that not even China’ s censors can cover up. The zero-covid policy has become a dead end from which the Communist Party has no quick exit.
It is one of a trio of problems faced by China this year, alongside a misfiring economy and the war in Ukraine. You may think they are unconnected, but China’ s response to each has a common root: swagger and hubris in public, an obsession with control in private, and dubious results. Rather than being the product of statecraft with the Yellow Emperor’ s time horizon, China’ s actions reflect an authoritarian system under Xi Jinping that struggles to calibrate policy or admit when it is wrong.
This is the year for China’ s president when everything has to follow the script. In the autumn he is expected to use a five-yearly party congress to launch a third term as its chief, in defiance of norms that he step aside after two and opening a pathway to lifelong rule. For this coronation to go smoothly, China must be stable and successful.
In some ways Mr Xi has triumphed. The propagandists can boast of a covid-19 mortality rate that is the lowest of any big country, and an economy that has grown by more than any other in the G20 since 2018. As Europe descends into war, China stands apart and secure, with a growing nuclear arsenal and the muscle and money to project power from the Pacific to the Caribbean.
Yet look closer and Mr Xi’ s final year as a political mortal betrays China’ s weaknesses under his rule as well as its strengths. Start with the pandemic. Since the virus was detected in Wuhan, China has pursued a zero-covid strategy. Its borders have been closed for two years and outbreaks are met with quarantines, coercive mass testing and harsh lockdowns. Early on, China’ s rulers decided on a giant utilitarian experiment, leading to a largely covid-free life for the majority, at the cost of forfeited individual liberties, pain for those in lockdown and national isolation.
But the outbreaks are becoming harder to control. In addition to Shanghai, five provinces have partial lockdowns and Guangzhou has closed its schools. At least 150m people are affected. Having granted autonomy to Shanghai to manage its lockdown, Mr Xi has seized back control. And there is no exit strategy. The party has not prepared the public for living with covid and has failed to jab enough vulnerable old folk or use more effective Western vaccines. The choice now is between a redoubled vaccination campaign alongside an exit wave that could, according to some models, kill 2m people, or indefinite isolation and repeated curfews.
Those lockdowns are hurting growth, amplifying a botched attempt to recast the economy. Mr Xi has called on Chinese capitalists to become less predatory and more self-reliant. But in an attempt to implement vague slogans such as “ common prosperity ”, zealous officials have reasserted state control and intimidated the most successful entrepreneurs. A once-glittering tech industry is in intensive care, with the largest ten firms having lost $ 1.7trn of market value after a barrage of regulations. The bosses of Alibaba and Tencent are reduced to displays of cringing obedience and barred from expanding in some new areas. In recent weeks the party has tried to reverse course. But global investors are wary. Those ten largest tech firms are valued at a 50% discount to their American peers.
In their place China hopes to create a loyal new generation of startups that follow the party’ s austere goals. Registration documents point to tens of thousands of these firms being created in inland cities, which purport to be at the cutting edge of the cloud, robotics and artificial intelligence. For now, patriotic investors are cheering them on but many are duds or frauds tolerated by officials keen to meet local development targets. A tech industry where the incentives are subsidies and fear, and which is separated from an increasingly globalised system of venture capital, is likely to fall behind the frontier of innovation.
The last problem involves Ukraine and foreign policy. Mr Xi has sided with Russia, in keeping with his belief that the West is in decline. Yet this stance has costs. It will further hurt relations with America and Europe, upon whose markets China relies. China hopes Europe can be prised apart from America, but the war has revived NATO and transatlantic co-operation in energy. It is true that many countries do not want to pick sides between the West and China and Russia. But China’ s “ wolf warrior ” diplomacy is backfiring, as foreigners balk at the insults and threats issuing from Beijing. Across rich countries, public perceptions of China are at their worst for two decades. The same is true in some developing ones, such as India, that fear Chinese aggression.
Underestimating China is foolish. Its centralised governance allows vast resources to be concentrated on strategic tasks, from building a navy to dominating the battery business. Public opinion can be mobilised. The sheer size of the domestic market lets firms achieve economies of scale without leaving home—and the potential pool of profits will always tempt global firms to be present, and mercantilist governments to support them.
These strengths remain. Yet China’ s system of government is developing new flaws as power grows more concentrated. Authoritarian states can get things right but hate to admit when they are wrong. The more Mr Xi’ s status is officially exalted ahead of the party congress, the more sycophancy there will be. When bureaucrats compete to demonstrate zeal, the administration becomes less effective; if officials fear to speak up, the feedback mechanism fails. A test of China’ s long-term prospects is whether it can change course. For now, if you think China’ s ascent is inevitable, look at the deserted streets of its biggest city, and ask yourself if Mr Xi has a monopoly on wisdom. ■
Russia wants to impose its brutal vision on its neighbour. That is everybody’ s business
Russia wants to impose its brutal vision on its neighbour. That is everybody’ s business
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U.K. Minister Quits Over Johnson’ s ‘ Partygate’ Rule-Breaking | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson suffered the first ministerial resignation from his British government since he and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, as well as dozens of officials, were fined for breaking the pandemic laws.
Justice minister David Wolfson, a peer in the U.K.’ s unelected upper House of Lords, cited the “ repeated rule-breaking ” and “ breaches of the criminal law ” in Downing Street as his reason for quitting.
“ The scale, context and nature of those breaches mean that it would be inconsistent with the rule of law for that conduct to pass with constitutional impunity, ” Wolfson said in a letter to Johnson published on Wednesday.
It’ s the most significant sign of dissent within Johnson’ s ruling Conservatives since the prime minister and Sunak were fined on Tuesday by police for attending a gathering on the prime minister’ s birthday in June 2020, in breach of the Covid laws their government passed.
Earlier on Wednesday, Nigel Mills became the first Tory Member of Parliament to call for the premier to quit in the wake of his being penalized, telling the Press Association that Johnson’ s position was “ impossible. ”
Canada joins U.S., U.K. in diplomatic boycott of Beijing games
Trudeau weighs auto-content rules as next U.S. trade flashpoint
As rates go up, so will the stress test: Ratehub.ca | general |
World hits 500 million official COVID cases but real tally likely billions | The world has surpassed over 500 million officially recorded COVID-19 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. This grim milestone is almost certainly an undercount, with some researchers estimating nearly half of the world’ s total population has likely been infected at least once with SARS-CoV-2 over the past two years.
With the emergence of the Omicron variant official COVID-19 cases have skyrocketed over the past few months. At the beginning of 2022 the world had formally counted less than 300 million COVID-19 cases but a month into the new year that global case count had crossed 400 million.
Now, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, there have officially been over half a billion COVID-19 cases since the pandemic kicked off in early 2020. And this number is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the real spread of this novel coronavirus across the world.
Since the beginning of the pandemic many researchers have stressed how official COVID-19 case counts are significantly lower than the real infection numbers. A variety of studies have tracked cases in different parts of the world and found vast numbers of undocumented cases. Even in the United States the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) has estimated less than a quarter of infections are officially recorded.
A striking report last week from the World Health Organization analyzed more than 150 individual studies to conclude around 65 percent of all people in Africa had likely been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 2021. That is 97 times higher than the officially recorded case count on the continent.
A new study published in The Lancet, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, looked to provide a comprehensive analysis of global COVID-19 cases by analyzing local data from 190 countries and territories. The researchers described the findings as “ staggering ”, with their estimates suggesting 3.39 billion people had been infected with COVID-19 at least once by mid-November 2021.
This equates to around 44 percent of the world’ s total population. And perhaps most striking, these estimates only run up to a time point just before the Omicron variant emerged.
Up to November 14 last year the researchers calculate 400 million people globally had experienced a COVID-19 reinfection. Although the new study did not incorporate the impact of Omicron into its model, the researchers hypothesized billions more cases, including vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections, have occurred across early 2022.
“ Models suggest that more than 50 percent of the world might have been infected with Omicron already – however, a detailed analysis will have to await new seroprevalence data emerging in the coming months, ” the researchers write in the new study. “ Cumulative infections for COVID-19 through to March, 2022, might be nearly double what occurred through Nov 14, 2021. ”
The IHME researchers also pointed out the data shows no sign of herd immunity developing in highly infected populations. Even when the model estimated local population infection levels of up to 80 percent it detected no significant decline in rates of COVID-19 infections.
The researchers hypothesize the emergence of new variants as playing a significant role in continuing high infection rates. The idea of herd immunity reducing rates of community transmission is suggested as needing, “ [ a ] very high degree of combined natural and vaccine-derived immunity. ”
Commenting on the new study Emory University epidemiologists Kayoko Shioda and Ben Lopman said the novel statistical model used by the IHME team is a technical achievement delivering robust estimates of global COVID cases. However, the duo also noted the stunning extent of global infections to date raises a host of new questions that researchers now need to investigate.
“ To what extent do the population's historical infections – in terms of timing and variants – protect against infection and severe disease of new variants? ” the epidemiologists asked in the Lancet commentary. “ Relatedly, how do layers of vaccine-induced and virus-induced immunity combine to confer protection to the population? Perhaps most importantly at this moment in the pandemic, we need to identify the sub-populations that remain susceptible to severe disease and death. ” | science |
Online ADHD Medication Startup Ahead Is Shutting Down | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Ahead, an online provider of ADHD treatment, is shutting down, its top investor said Thursday.
The company will immediately stop taking new patients and will continue to provide current patients with care through June 24, said Sid Viswanathan, the chief executive officer of Ahead backer Truepill. As Truepill has shifted its focus to serving corporate and business customers, “ we made the difficult decision to no longer invest in Ahead, ” Viswanathan wrote in an email to Bloomberg.
Ahead, a subscription-based startup, was one of several that began prescribing controlled drugs online during the Covid-19 pandemic. Founded in 2019, Ahead was jump-started with a $ 9 million investment led by Truepill, which provides online health services including a digital pharmacy. Ahead customers pay $ 150 for their first month of service, including an initial evaluation, and $ 75 in subsequent months.
Ahead has 44 employees, according to LinkedIn. The startup competed with other companies such as Done Health -- backed by Craft Ventures, Offline Ventures and former quarterback Joe Montana -- and Cerebral Inc., which garnered a $ 4.8 billion valuation after SoftBank Group Corp. and other investors plowed $ 300 million into the company in December.
The companies’ rise is closely linked with a boom in sales of amphetamine medications, Bloomberg reported last month, and has been helped along by a 2020 rollback of rules governing prescribing addictive medications.
Ahead recently saw a spate of executive departures. Co-founder Emile Barraza left last year and his fellow co-founder Andy Rink, who also served as a senior vice president at Truepill, left both companies this month according to Rink’ s LinkedIn profile.
Truepill, Ahead’ s biggest backer, offers telehealth and prescription delivery services. The startup was valued at $ 1.6 billion after raising $ 142 million in October, according to PitchBook. Investors include Initialized Capital, Optum Ventures and Social Capital.
“ We are impressed by the practice they built and are grateful to the dedicated, passionate team that made Ahead a reality, ” Viswanathan said. | general |
Cogeco Q2 profit increases 7.8% to $ 118.8M on revenue boost | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
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Cogeco Inc. says its net profit increased nearly eight per cent in its second quarter on a boost in revenues.
The Montreal-based company says its net income attributable to shareholders was $ 118.8 million or $ 2.29 per diluted share, up from $ 110.2 million or $ 2.11 per share a year earlier.
Revenues for the three months ended Feb. 18 increased 14.5 per cent to $ 748.1 million, from $ 653.2 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Cogeco was expected to earn $ 2.27 per share on $ 741.2 million of revenues, according to financial data firm Refinitiv.
American broadband services revenue increased 31 per cent in constant currency while Canadian broadband services revenue was up 2.1 per cent mainly due to the DERYtelecom acquisition in December 2020 and organic growth.
Media activities revenue was up 4.9 per cent following an easing of COVID-19 public health restrictions.
`` For our radio business, our revenue has grown despite a weaker advertising market due to sudden lockdowns brought on by the Omicron variant, however signs have been positive for the economy as public health measures are being lifted, '' stated CEO Philippe Jetté in a news release. | general |
Expats Looking for a Move to Singapore Face Rising Costs | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- As some expats in Asia increasingly look to Singapore as a financial center destination - due in part to Hong Kong’ s ongoing Covid restrictions - costs are rising in the tropical city-state.
Though moving down one notch to second place in a global ranking of the world’ s most expensive cities last year, Singapore remained the most expensive hub in Asia, with Hong Kong placed fifth globally and Dubai seventy-fourth.
Inflation in Singapore rose to a 9-year high in February, well ahead of rival Dubai’ s latest reading of about 1%.
At the same time, rents, which typically eat up the largest portion of an expat’ s paycheck, jumped to a seven-year high in the Lion City, with analysts anticipating further increases as demand outweighs supply.
In contrast, rents had fallen in Dubai for nearly five straight years before increasing 0.3% in February, while Hong Kong’ s rents have now risen for seven consecutive months after falling for 19 straight months between 2019 to 2021.
Rising home prices prompted Singapore’ s government to place curbs on foreigners buying private property last year.
Rising commodity prices have pushed transportation costs higher, with Dubai seeing the largest yearly increase of around 20%, followed by 15% in Singapore and 7% in Hong Kong in the latest available data.
In Singapore, if you want to buy a car, prices are also driven up by the cost of the city’ s certificate of entitlement, the first step to having one for 10 years. The price of obtaining a COE recently hit a record of $ 74k and the city has announced higher taxes on luxury cars.
Singapore’ s international schools also cost more, with median annual school fees of $ 21,000 last year, much higher than both Hong Kong and Dubai, according to International Schools Database.
Dubai’ s private schools will freeze education costs for the academic year ending 2023, while Hong Kong’ s private and international school fees rose on average 3.9% in 2021-2022.
Still, Singapore’ s facilities, small size and tropical lifestyle may remain attractive to expats headed to Asia. The latest Global Financial Centres Index put the city-state on the top three for business environment and human capital metrics.
“ Singapore is still the first choice for those who can afford it, ” said Jennifer Gargiulo, a book writer of Diary of An Expat in Singapore. And those “ who very much hope for a return to the life they led before the pandemic. ”
This U.S. legislation is a game changer: Curaleaf executive chairman
U.S. democratic senators to unveil draft cannabis reform bill on Wednesday: Report | general |
Asia Stocks Set to Drop on Renewed Inflation Fears: Markets Wrap | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Stock figures on a screen at the Tokyo Stock Exchange ( TSE), operated by Japan Exchange Group Inc. ( JPX), in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Japanese stocks pared losses after the Bank of Japan’ s policy decision and as U.S. futures bounced back following a global equity rout. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks look set to drop Friday after concern about quickening inflation and monetary tightening again hurt Treasuries and U.S. shares.
Equity futures fell in Japan, one of the few markets open in the region along with China and South Korea amid Easter holidays. The technology sector led a Wall Street retreat Thursday that also saw Chinese shares traded in the U.S. sink.
Treasury yields jumped after a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. import prices and comments from Federal Reserve official John Williams, who said half-percentage point interest-rate hikes are a “ reasonable option. ” A dollar gauge rallied. Treasury markets are shut for Good Friday.
In contrast to the U.S. and many others, China appears set to loosen policy to help an economy hit by Covid lockdowns. The central bank is forecast to cut a key policy rate Friday and may inject more cash into the financial system.
Oil’ s biggest weekly rally this month underlined the price pressures facing the global economy. Crude was bolstered by a report that the European Union is moving toward adopting a phased ban on imports from Russian due to the war in Ukraine.
The climb in bond yields put both gold and Bitcoin on the back foot. The world’ s largest cryptocurrency slipped below $ 40,000.
The gyrations in bond markets remain center stage for investors, reflecting the ebb and flow of concerns over when inflation will peak and the potential economic damage from tighter monetary policy across much of the world.
“ We don’ t think there’ s going to be a recession, ” Julian Emanuel, chief equity strategist at Evercore ISI, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “ We don’ t think the Fed is going to break the glass. But the problem is investors aren’ t in that mindset quite yet. ”
In Europe, policy makers are forming a consensus around raising rates in the third quarter to tackle record inflation, according to people familiar with the matter. The European Central Bank’ s first hike in borrowing costs in more than a decade is expected to be by 25 basis points.
Meanwhile, Twitter Inc. closed lower, whipsawed by billionaire Elon Musk’ s offer to buy the social-media giant. The firm is said to be considering adopting a measure that would protect it from hostile acquisition bids.
Traders at Wall Street’ s biggest investment banks had a better-than-expected quarter as the war in Ukraine compounded volatility. But questions are emerging about future earnings growth as fears of recession creep in.
“ No one ever suggested that when the Fed begins raising rates that the market sells off dramatically, ” Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at Lpl Financial LLC, said on Bloomberg Television. “ It doesn’ t. The market can do very well. This time around you’ ve got quantitative tightening with it, the complete opposite of the flood of liquidity. It makes a big difference. ”
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
“ I Could Have Been Next ”: Stymied Reforms in the Maldives | Help us continue to fight human rights abuses. Please give now to support our work
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Download the full report in English
Appendix I: Human Rights Watch Emails and Letters to the Government, April 2, 2021 – February 6, 2022
Appendix II: Written Response by the President’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, April 22, 2021
Appendix III: Information for Human Rights Watch Provided by the Maldives Death and Disappearances Commission, February 20, 2022
Appendix IV: Information for Human Rights Watch Provided by the Attorney General’ s Office, February 28, 2022
Map
Download the full report in English
Appendix I: Human Rights Watch Emails and Letters to the Government, April 2, 2021 – February 6, 2022
Appendix II: Written Response by the President’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, April 22, 2021
Appendix III: Information for Human Rights Watch Provided by the Maldives Death and Disappearances Commission, February 20, 2022
Appendix IV: Information for Human Rights Watch Provided by the Attorney General’ s Office, February 28, 2022
Stymied Reforms in the Maldives
Soldiers secure a site after a bomb blast injured Mohamed Nasheed, the Maldives parliament speaker and former president, in the capital, Male, May 6, 2021. © 2021 AFP via Getty Images
On May 6, 2021, a remote-controlled bomb exploded as Mohamed Nasheed, the parliament speaker and former president of the Maldives, left his home in Malé, the capital, injuring him, a member of his security detail, and several bystanders. The attempted assassination was the latest—and highest-profile—attack in the Indian Ocean island nation. Nasheed, whose opponents have frequently accused him of being a laadheenee, or “ enemy of Islam, ” was critically injured but survived. Four months after the attack, at his first press conference, he said he believed his life was still in danger.
The attack on Nasheed sent shock waves through the Maldives. After winning the 2018 election, largely on promises of reform, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had vowed to restore fundamental rights eroded by longstanding authoritarian rule. And while his administration has taken some significant steps toward restoring civil liberties, particularly with respect to the media, it has failed to confront deep-rooted corruption and the continuing influence of extremist groups and criminal gangs on the judiciary, police, and other government institutions.
Instead, the government has repeatedly bent to pressure from powerful interest groups, including those who advocate the use of violence on the basis of religion, and in doing so has not protected freedom of speech and religion, and the rights of at-risk communities. Police investigations into targeted attacks have stalled, largely because those responsible enjoy political protection.
This report, based on 26 interviews in the Maldives and among Maldivians living outside the country, finds repeated failures in providing justice for these attacks. It documents the inability of the Solih government to take the necessary steps to uphold basic rights and develop robustly independent and rights-respecting systems. It makes recommendations for justice system reform, and calls on Maldives’ donors, including the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union, to support credible steps towards strengthening independent institutions that can protect and promote human rights.
Since 2012, and particularly during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen from 2013 to 2018, threats and violence against prominent Maldivian activists, politicians, and journalists escalated.
Criminal gangs, organized groups with links to clerics and other religious figures advocating the use of violence, are believed responsible for these attacks. Those targeted included: journalist and blogger Ismail Hilath Rasheed, who survived being stabbed in the neck in June 2012; Dr. Afrasheem Ali, a member of parliament ( MP) and religious scholar known for his sermons supporting gender equality and other liberal views, who was fatally stabbed in October 2012; journalist Ahmed Rilwan, who was abducted and disappeared in 2014, after accusing several politicians of corruption; and blogger Yameen Rasheed, who was fatally stabbed in 2017.
The government’ s failure to provide accountability in these cases has meant that these gangs, their political patrons, and violent members continue to exercise a chilling effect on free speech in the country. Anyone defending religious freedom, for instance, can draw their wrath. With the authorities’ not credibly investigating or prosecuting those responsible for threats and attacks, the chorus of laadheenee, often playing out on social media, can lead to deadly violence. Those targeted include women’ s rights activists, defenders of the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender ( LGBT) people, and journalists and bloggers who publish material and support causes that are deemed “ offensive to Islam. ”
On his first day in office on November 17, 2018, President Solih established the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances ( DDCom) to conduct independent investigations into unresolved cases of violence against activists and keep his election pledge to ensure justice. But nearly three-and-half years later, investigations have largely stalled amid allegations that politicians have intervened in the justice system to protect the perpetrators. The police have buried investigations, prosecutors and courts have failed to indict suspects, and politicians still lend their support to gangs that promote extremist ideology.
The commission’ s chair warned that justice would be impossible so long as these gangs continue to exert influence over the police and judiciary. In Rilwan’ s case, the commission found that suspects were protected by powerful politicians, and some had fled the country to join the extremist group Islamic State ( ISIS) in Syria. As Aisha Rasheed, the sister of slain blogger Yameen Rasheed, told Human Rights Watch: “ Extremism is deep-rooted within the authorities that are meant to protect us.... If someone like the former president and current speaker of the parliament can’ t get justice in this country, who then is Yameen Rasheed? ”
The Solih administration has made progress in reducing state repression of speech and expression. Members of the media say they no longer fear state censorship, particularly after November 2018, when the administration repealed the 2016 Anti-Defamation and Freedom of Expression Act, which had been used to impose massive fines on critical media. Editors and journalists say they no longer worry about facing criminal cases or fines for simply doing their jobs. This change is reflected in the Reporters Without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index, in which the Maldives had climbed up 48 places from ranking 120 in 2018 to 72 in 2021.
At the same time, the government has often relented to pressure from powerful politicians and religious groups instead of upholding freedom of speech and association. When clerics and social media activists label their critics as laadheenee and threaten violence, the government has repeatedly failed to protect rights or prosecute those who carry out attacks.
One of the most damaging cases was the government’ s decision in November 2019 to yield to pressure from influential clerics and political opposition figures to deregister the Maldivian Democracy Network ( MDN), the country’ s leading human rights organization. A weeks-long social media campaign against the group under the hashtag # BanMDN attacked the group for its 2015 report on the rise of extremism in the Maldives. Religious hardliners decried MDN staff as laadheenee and demanded that those involved in authoring the report face criminal charges, including for blasphemy.
In many cases, members of the governing Maldivian Democratic Party ( MDP) and its Islamist ally, the Adhaalath Party, have backed these moves. Salafist religious groups and opposition politicians have been able to influence the government’ s response to allegations that activists have offended Muslim sentiment, which has in turn helped fuel online campaigns and sometimes violence. MDP members of parliament led a controversial campaign to amend the penal code to criminalize hate speech, but its broad provisions raised concerns about infringing free speech, particularly any perceived criticism of Islam. A more limited bill passed into law in November 2021.
In a written response to Human Rights Watch in April 2021, the Office of the President noted measures the government had taken to ensure the safety of individuals facing threats working in civil society. The office acknowledged that individuals who report threats are left feeling that their complaints are not being addressed adequately, and said it was committed to bring reforms. In a statement provided to Human Rights Watch in February 2022, the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances said that its goal was to prosecute persons at all levels for the offenses and to address systemic issues to ensure non-recurrence of these crimes in the future.
However, the government’ s failure to successfully investigate and prosecute many of these attacks has exacerbated the threats. In December 2020, a resident of Addu City posted a statement against religious extremism on social media. When the post elicited an outcry by various religious groups, the police questioned the man and confiscated his electronic devices for further investigation but took no action against those who had issued the threats. The man told Human Rights Watch, “ I have become a constant target for religious extremists because I speak out. I could very easily have been the next Yameen [ Rasheed ] or [ Ahmed ] Rilwan. ”
The Solih government has made limited progress in other areas, but political pressures continue to stymie reforms.
During his election campaign, Solih pledged to abolish laws that curtail citizens’ right to peaceful assembly. However, the government has yet to amend the Freedom of Assembly Act, and has instead continued to use it to block protests. In 2020, the government invoked the law to enforce a lockdown ostensibly to contain the spread of Covid-19, starting with the migrant worker protests against wage theft and poor living conditions in July 2020.
Authorities have also used unnecessary force against peaceful protests. Police used pepper spray to disperse a Labor Day protest on May 1, 2021, organized by a youth-led movement called Rise Up MV, handcuffing adult protesters after forcing them on the ground. The Human Rights Commission of the Maldives said that the allegations of police abuse in this case should be investigated under the Anti-Torture Act. The police announced an internal investigation into the incident, but, as of March 2022, no information had been released.
Despite some reform efforts, the Maldives Police Service demonstrates serious gaps in its capacity to conduct credible criminal investigations or follow regulations regarding the use of force. Police corruption remains a big hurdle to impartial investigations. Police also remain susceptible to political pressure.
In September 2021, President Solih reiterated his commitment to reforming the composition of the Judicial Services Commission ( JSC), which is responsible for appointment of judges. However, politicization of the commission continues to undermine judicial independence. Opposition politicians and civil society activists have expressed concern that, as was the case under the previous Yameen administration, the JSC has been used to pressure the judiciary for the benefit of the ruling party.
International donors—including the US, EU, and UK—should recognize that the entire justice system in the Maldives, including police, prosecutors, and the judiciary, needs urgent reform to build independent and robust institutions that can provide accountability and protect due process rights.
Over the past two decades, since the democratic transition in the Maldives, international donors have increased investment in good governance, transparency, and protection of human rights. These projects are implemented either directly by the government or through nongovernmental and community-based organizations. However, these programs often fail to address core issues–notably a lack of political will to take on the politicians and extremist groups who benefit from existing dysfunction—to bring systemic reforms to the criminal justice system.
Laadheenee
From Arabic, literally “ no religion, ” meaning irreligious or overly secular, an “ enemy of Islam ”
People’ s Majlis
Legislative body of the Maldivian government
Sharia
Islamic law
DDCom
Commission on Deaths and Disappearances
DRP
Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party
HRCM
Human Rights Commission of the Maldives
JSC
Judicial Services Commission
MCS
Maldives Correctional Service
MDN
Maldivian Democracy Network
MDP
Maldivian Democratic Party
MJA
Maldives Journalists Association
MMC
Maldives Media Council
MNDF
Maldives National Defence Force
MPS
Maldives Police Service
NIC
National Integrity Commission
NPM
National Preventative Mechanism
NSS
National Security Service
PNC
People’ s National Congress
PPM
Progressive Party of Maldives
This report is based on field research and 26 interviews conducted in the Maldives between June 2021 and January 2022 with Maldivians and other informed sources living outside the Maldives.
Human Rights Watch interviewed people who had experienced human rights violations, including journalists, social media activists, human rights activists, opposition party leaders and members, lawyers, and judges. Because of the global Covid-19 pandemic, most interviews were conducted by phone or email.
Human Rights Watch also reviewed legal documents related to cases investigated by the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances.
We have withheld the names and other details of some of the interviewees that requested that we safeguard their identity. We paid no remuneration or other inducement to victims and witnesses of abuses who spoke with us.
In January 2022, we wrote to officials in the Maldives seeking their response to our findings. We received responses from the Attorney General’ s Office and the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances, which we have cited in the body of this report and have included in full as appendices.
After gaining independence in 1965 following 78 years as a British protectorate, the Maldives endured decades of political repression. [ 1 ] Constitutional amendments in the 1970s made the president the supreme authority “ entrusted with propagating and protecting the Islamic faith, ” a provision that President Maumoon Gayoom—who took office in 1978—wielded to enhance his political power. [ 2 ] Both his political opponents who demanded democratic reforms and those who challenged him on religious grounds were often jailed on spurious charges of being anti-Islam. [ 3 ]
With no political parties or free elections to challenge his rule, Gayoom held office for 30 years. During this time, the Maldives opened up to tourism after decades of isolation. The capital, Malé, also saw rapid growth as younger people moved to the city from outlying islands in search of education and employment. Urban congestion, drug-related crime, and gang violence increased sharply after 2000. [ 4 ]
Gayoom’ s grip on power weakened after the death from torture of a 19-year-old political prisoner in September 2003 sparked riots that ultimately provoked domestic and international calls for reform. In 2005, political parties were allowed to organize for the first time, among them the Maldivian Democratic Party ( MDP), with a platform promoting democratic change, and the Islamist Adhaalath ( “ Justice ”) Party, both founded in July 2005.
Over the following three years, 13 political parties emerged. Political forces that had been constrained for decades were thrust onto center stage, leading to the emergence of competing and divisive political narratives: a fear that exposure to Western culture would erode the Maldives’ Islamic identity on one hand, and the threat of violent extremism stoked by some clerics, on the other. [ 5 ] In 2008, the constitution was amended to allow for multiparty elections, separation of powers, and freedom of the press.
In November 2008, opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed of the MDP defeated President Gayoom and his Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party ( DRP). Nasheed—who had previously been imprisoned under Gayoom for publishing articles critical of the president—was inaugurated as the country’ s first directly elected leader in a relatively free and fair election. However, disagreements soon broke out among ruling coalition members, and the escalating power struggle contributed to a highly divisive political campaign against the MDP government in 2011-12 on the theme of “ Defending Islam. ” [ 6 ] After the police sided with his opponents, Nasheed stepped down on February 7, 2012, claiming that he had been forced out. [ 7 ]
After disputed elections, Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives ( PPM) took office in 2013. His government expanded its use of broad and vaguely worded counterterrorism laws to intimidate, arbitrarily arrest, and prosecute its critics. It also used anti-defamation laws against the media and social media activists who criticized the president or his policies, and restrictions on assembly to prohibit or severely limit peaceful rallies and protests. The situation continued to deteriorate through 2018, as the President’ s Office increasingly interfered in legislative and judicial affairs.
On February 1, 2018, the Supreme Court ordered the release of nine political prisoners. In response, President Yameen declared a state of emergency and suspended several constitutional protections, banned public assemblies, and granted security forces sweeping powers to arrest and detain. The declaration of emergency was widely condemned internationally. Yameen lifted it on March 22, 2018, after several opposition leaders had been arrested. [ 8 ]
Joint opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated Yameen by a wide margin in the 2018 presidential elections. [ 9 ] He took office on November 17, and vowed to implement judicial reform, restore fundamental rights, and investigate the murders of a political activist and former member of parliament and the forced disappearance of a prominent journalist, among other attacks. [ 10 ] After parliamentary elections in 2019, in which the MDP won a super-majority of seats, Nasheed was appointed the speaker of the parliament, the People’ s Majlis. [ 11 ]
Immediately upon taking office, President Solih took some important steps to lift restrictions on the media. The March 2019 parliamentary elections saw MDP win by a large margin, with the promise of expediting the legislative agenda to fulfill Solih’ s electoral pledges. Having campaigned on a platform of human rights and democratic reforms, the victory by MDP in both the presidential and parliamentary elections raised hopes for genuine change.
An archipelagic state, the Maldives has one of the world’ s most geographically dispersed populations, scattered across 26 atolls in the Indian Ocean. With many of its inhabited islands connected only through speedboat and ferry services, it faces numerous challenges to implementing an effective and uniform justice structure.
Under the 2008 constitution, the administrative structure of the Maldives comprises the executive, legislative ( People’ s Majlis), and judiciary. Both the constitution and national laws prescribe the formation of independent institutions that have monitoring, oversight, and advisory roles. These independent institutions include the Human Rights Commission, Judicial Service Commission, Elections Commission, the Prosecutor General, and the Anti-Corruption Commission.
The Maldives legal system was traditionally community-based and rooted in Sharia ( Islamic law). Religious leaders continue to have strong influence and can act as arbitrators. One former prosecutor, for instance, said that often island communities refuse to file complaints or appear as witnesses, preferring these informal justice mechanisms. [ 12 ]
While the Maldives has been developing a formal criminal justice policy, much remains to be done to create a competent, independent, and impartial system, including training that focuses on credible investigations, the right to defense, and judicial approaches emphasizing alternatives to incarceration.
Prior to 2004, the Maldives police functioned as the National Security Service ( NSS), a paramilitary force under the Ministry of Defence and National Security. In 2004, as part of then-President Gayoom’ s reform agenda, the NSS—with its legacy of torture and brutality—was divided into the Maldives Police Service ( MPS), under the Home Ministry, and the Maldives National Defence Force ( MNDF), under the Ministry of Defence. [ 13 ]
The police, however, remain susceptible to political pressure that undermines their independence and impartiality. [ 14 ] Human rights groups have criticized the police for negligence in handling evidence and breaching confidentiality of witnesses. [ 15 ] Human rights advocates have also accused the police of mistreatment and torture of detainees. [ 16 ] In a few cases, police responsible for abuse have been subject to administrative punishments, such as dismissals or demotions. However, as of March 2022, none had been prosecuted under the Anti-Torture Act. [ 17 ]
In December 2020, President Solih ratified the Maldives Police Service Act, which replaced the 2008 Police Act. [ 18 ] According to the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office, the law is meant to “ enhance the provision of policing, internal governance of the police force and … promote rights centric policing services within communities. ” [ 19 ] The law establishes a seven-member police board comprised of two members appointed by the president, three based on “ technical expertise and experience, ” and two through open applications. The board is meant to oversee various operational aspects, advise on areas of improvement, and play a role in the appointment and dismissal of the police commissioner and the deputy police commissioner.
The new police board, which was not constituted until April 2021, has already sparked controversy. [ 20 ] In August 2021, acting on a clause in the new law mandating the reappointment of all officers above the rank of superintendent other than the commissioner of police, the board recommended the dismissal of seven high-ranking officers. [ 21 ] The commissioner stalled the recommendation until late September 2021, before sending dismissal notices to only two of the seven officers. [ 22 ] In October, five of the seven officers, including the two who were dismissed, filed a case at the civil court, citing unfair dismissal and requested a stay order on the dismissal. [ 23 ] While the Civil Court denied this order, the decision was appealed at the High Court, and a stay order was issued on October 19, 2021. [ 24 ] Granting the order, the High Court stated that the enforcement of the termination of the officers should be suspended until the conclusion of the unfair dismissal case filed by the officers at the Civil Court. As of February 2022, the case has not been concluded at the Civil Court.
The Maldives has a long history of torture within police custody and prisons, which only started to change with the legislative and systemic changes brought over the last decade of democratic transition. [ 25 ] Independent investigators have reported instances of beating or kicking prisoners; using excessive and cruel restraints, including cross-cuffing ( chaining legs to hands); and even pepper-spraying underwear. [ 26 ] The UN special rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, Nils Melzer, in his report published in November 2019, reported that no Maldivian official has ever been held accountable for torture, leading to impunity and a systematic failure in prosecuting those who perpetrate such acts. [ 27 ]
On October 6, 2021, a detainee held for three years in a Malé prison during his trial for drug offenses died in custody. Family members said that he had several times requested the court to grant him permission to seek medical attention, which was denied. [ 28 ] The Prosecutor General’ s Office has since said that it has launched a probe into the death. [ 29 ]
Human rights activist Shahinda Ismail told Human Rights Watch that some forms of torture, including sleep deprivation, have become “ normalized ” among both prisoners and prison officials and that there was no procedure to confidentially file complaints about torture or other ill-treatment. [ 30 ] Melzer, in his report, noted that correspondence to external authorities is “ systematically censored by Correctional Officers and transmitted or held back at their discretion. ” [ 31 ]
According to Shifaath Razzaq, a Commissioner of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives ( HRCM), since the Anti-Torture Act came into effect in 2013, the Human Rights Commission has investigated hundreds of cases of alleged torture and had sent at least 25 cases to the Prosecutor General’ s Office. As of April 2022, only two had been prosecuted, with neither resulting in convictions. [ 32 ]
She noted that one of the biggest challenges in prosecuting torture cases was that it was often difficult to get witness statements from the authorities involved, as officials can choose to remain silent rather than testify against their colleagues. [ 33 ] In addition, the Commission must rely on the police for forensic evidence, even in cases where police officials are suspected of torture. [ 34 ]
Furthermore, the Anti-Torture Act of 2013 mandates a maximum period of three months to complete investigations of allegations of torture, but due to difficulties in gathering evidence, the Commission has found it extremely challenging to meet this deadline. [ 35 ]
Razzaq said that many of the observations of the Prison Audit Commission from 2019 had been highlighted since 2008 by the National Preventative Mechanism ( NPM) established within the HRCM. However, she said that the state had failed to take satisfactory action on the NPM’ s findings during this period. [ 36 ]
In a few cases, police responsible for abuse have been subject to administrative punishments, such as dismissals or demotions. However, as of March 2022, none had been prosecuted under the Anti-Torture Act. [ 37 ]
The primary oversight body of the judiciary is the Judicial Services Commission ( JSC), established under Section 157 of the Constitution. [ 38 ] The JSC is responsible for appointing all judges other than Supreme Court justices and is also responsible for overseeing the conduct of all judges, with the authority to recommend their dismissal to the People’ s Majlis. In the appointment of the chief justice and the Supreme Court, it plays an advisory role to the president, who then forwards the nominees to the People’ s Majlis for confirmation. The JSC has three sitting judges, three legislative representatives, three executive representatives, and one independent lawyer. The political role it has played since 2008 has led critics to question its impartiality and independence. [ 39 ]
Historically, the party or parties that hold majority within the commission have molded the judiciary. After the democratic transition in 2008, for instance, although Nasheed’ s party held the presidency, it was the opposition led by former president Gayoom’ s party that had a majority in parliament. The sitting judges who became members of the JSC had been appointed by Gayoom himself during his presidency and were loyal to him. The opposition ended up controlling the JSC, and thus the judiciary through appointments and dismissals.
Likewise, following the 2018 presidential and 2019 parliamentary elections, the MDP gained a majority of seats in the JSC. There have been numerous dismissals and appointments of judges since then. [ 40 ] Regarding these changes, deputy leader of the People’ s National Congress ( PNC) Adam Shareef said, “ I don’ t think there is a genuine will to make the judiciary independent.... [ T ] he JSC is being used to manipulate and intimidate the judiciary for the benefit of the ruling party. ” [ 41 ]
Under the constitution and the Courts Act of 2010, the Maldives follows a three-tier court system that comprises of the Supreme Court, High Court, and lower courts. The lower courts are further divided into superior courts and magistrate courts. Superior courts are established in the capital, Malé. The law allows branches of these courts to be established in other islands. The superior courts include the criminal court, civil court, family court, juvenile court, and drug court. Magistrate courts are established in all inhabited islands other than the capital, and function like superior courts, unless otherwise prescribed in law. Without established jurisprudence, the judiciary, particularly in the lower courts, tends to rely on Sharia. [ 42 ]
The influence of criminal gangs stretches through the judiciary. In 2020, while he was chair of the presidential commission before being appointed to the Supreme Court, Husnu Al Suood had warned that gangs were nominating judges, providing private security, and colluding with judges and staff to “ fix ” the outcome of trials, including by revealing the identity of prosecution witnesses who were under protection. “ No matter how well we investigate and send cases, I don’ t believe we could have justice with the current judges at the criminal court, ” Suood told the media. “ I think that’ s the view of the whole legal community. ” [ 43 ] He was promptly accused of contempt by the Criminal Court and was summoned to a hearing on the matter, which was later cancelled. [ 44 ]
The Solih government describes recent improvements, with over 50 judges impeached on allegations of gross misconduct since 2019, as a step towards judicial accountability. The Maldives attorney general’ s office informed Human Rights Watch that new amendments to the Judicial Service Commission Act introduced stringent mechanisms for judges’ disciplinary hearings and anonymous submission of complaints. [ 45 ] According to the President’ s Office, this has resulted in the number of complaints being lodged at the JSC rising from 7 in 2018 to 114 in 2019. [ 46 ]
Reforming the composition of the JSC was also a key pledge of the MDP government. [ 47 ] However, as of March 2022, it had yet to be addressed. Until it is, judges remain susceptible to political and other influences—particularly concerning considering allegations that the judiciary has faced threats or coercion from criminal gangs or political actors who have protected them.
In September 2021, President Solih reiterated his commitment to reform the composition of the JSC before the end of his term. [ 48 ] This was preceded by leaked audio clips alleged to be recordings of judges who were on the Criminal Court bench when former President Yameen was found guilty of money laundering, which the opposition contends indicated that the judges were coerced by the ruling party. In the audio clips, one judge even insinuated that his wife or a loved one was held hostage before the ruling on the Yameen case, but was vague on details. [ 49 ] The opposition also contested the promotions of judges on the Criminal Court bench at the time of Yameen’ s verdict. However, JSC member and Member of Parliament Hisaan Hussain told the media that the promotions were unrelated to the verdict and that the timing of the promotions were “ coincidental. ” [ 50 ]
The government made some progress in increasing the number of women in the judiciary.
In September 2019, the first women Justices to the Supreme Court were appointed. The first woman judge to the Criminal Court was appointed in September 2020, and a woman judge to the High Court in October 2020. [ 51 ]
The 2018 US State Department Country Reports noted that, between 2016 and 2018, there had been 13 unexplained custodial deaths in the Maldives. [ 52 ] Additionally, it reported dire conditions within prisons and detention facilities, including overcrowding, unsanitary living arrangements, the lack of ventilation, and lack of access to sufficient health care and to clean drinking water.
Keeping an electoral promise, President Solih established a seven-member commission in December 2018 to conduct the audit of prisons and detention centers. The report, released in May 2019, highlighted the same concerns as the 2018 US report: overcrowding, lack of ventilation and clean drinking water, unsanitary living conditions, and poor medical care, which may have led to preventable custodial deaths. [ 53 ] Shahindha Ismail, who was among the seven members of the commission, told Human Rights Watch:
The UN special rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, noted that while prisoners under the Maldives Correctional Service ( MCS) had access to at least one doctor and two nurses, prisoners were often denied medical attention from specialists. [ 55 ]
The inspector of correctional services, Noora Mohamed, told Human Rights Watch that steps were being taken to improve the conditions of prisons and detention facilities. [ 56 ] However, she noted that the infrastructure in some facilities is so bad that it probably made more financial sense to simply build new facilities.
In its December 2021 report on the Maldives, the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention noted that:
In a response to questions from Human Rights Watch, the Attorney General’ s Office said that efforts:
The statement provided details on steps being taken to address prison overcrowding, including construction of new facilities and the establishment of a remand review board to ensure all detentions were reviewed every 30 days. The Attorney General’ s Office also stated that the recommendations of the Prison Audit Committee were under review, and that “ significant progress had been made in meeting recommendations relating to the improvement of health services to the prison population. ” [ 59 ]
Another major concern highlighted in the Prison Audit Commission’ s report was the discrimination between local and foreign prisoners. It found that in Hulhumalé Prison, which is also used as a facility for immigration detention, all 40 foreign detainees–mostly migrant workers–were locked up in one cell with inadequate toilet facilities. While Maldivian detainees were allowed to be out of their cells for most of the day in common areas, foreign detainees were forced to remain in their cells. While Maldivians were housed in large open rooms with windows, migrant workers were held in smaller rooms, with no windows or ventilation. In addition, Maldivian detainees were allowed to buy commodities from the prison shop, but this same privilege was not afforded to foreign detainees. The Prison Audit Commission also received complaints that records of possessions and money belonging to foreigners were not maintained by prison officials and that these were not returned upon release.
According to Sabra Noordeen, former foreign relations secretary at the President’ s Office, since the publication of the Prison Audit Commission’ s report, major changes have been bought about to the Hulhumalé facility to rectify the issues highlighted in the report. [ 60 ] In addition to the improvements to the Hulhumalé facility, she also told Human Rights Watch that a Prison Reform Monitoring Committee had been established within the Ministry of Home Affairs to facilitate reforms and monitor changes. Among the recommendations being implemented is the translation of the United Nations Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners ( The Nelson Mandela Rules) into Dhivehi language, following which trainings were to be held in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ( UNODC) to inform prison officers on these rules.
A 2019 United Nations Development Program ( UNDP) report on youth vulnerabilities found that prisons had become a place of recruitment for violent extremists, including those alleged to be affiliated with the Islamic State ( ISIS). [ 61 ] It highlighted concerns that up to 80 percent of the prison population in the Maldives are incarcerated on drug-related offenses, and that recruiters often targeted drug users. Furthermore, it noted that due to the overcrowding of prisons, segregation of violent from non-violent prisoners was not possible.
While, historically, the Maldives has received aid primarily for economic development, there has been a growing interest among donors in supporting democratic reforms. Fueled by the country’ s democratic transition in the mid-2000s and subsequent political upheavals, European countries and the United States, along with the UN, have supported reforms aimed at good governance, transparency, protection of human rights, and the development of civil society. Projects funded through such initiatives are implemented either directly with government agencies, or through nongovernmental and community-based organizations. However, such efforts have not always improved the protection of rights. For example, in 2004, as the Maldives was embarking on a number of reforms to its criminal justice system, the UNDP supported a major initiative to overhaul the penal code. [ 62 ] In the new penal code, which was finally enacted in 2015, same-sex conduct was made a criminal offense for the first time, with punishments that included lashing in addition to a prison sentence. [ 63 ]
The biggest support comes from the United States Agency for International Development ( USAID), which has earmarked US $ 24 million for five years through its Strong and Inclusive Maldivian Democracy ( SIMD) and Promoting Resilience in the Maldives ( PRIME) projects. [ 64 ] The SIMD project, implemented through the Consortium for Elections and Political Processes, is meant to provide $ 19 million by 2025 for improving local governance, judicial reform, and strengthening civic engagement. For judicial reform, the project aims to “ strengthen independent court administration; provide support to government and non-governmental institutions to increase public access to free legal assistance; and increase citizen awareness of and engagement with the justice sector. ” [ 65 ] The PRIME project, implemented through the local organization Transparency Maldives, aims, through research and institutional support, to design and implement efforts that will prevent youth engagement in criminal activities, including drug and substance abuse. [ 66 ]
The EU supports projects for judicial reform and community resilience, as well as counterterrorism, totaling €3.4 million. The EU project on judicial reform aims to support objective mechanisms for the appointment and dismissal of judges, develop and implement a curriculum for judicial training, and improve judicial transparency. [ 67 ]
Between 2019 and 2020, the UK government was supporting a two-year program titled the Maldives Conflict, Stability and Security Fund to strengthen the rule of law, justice sector, and governance reforms, as well as security sector collaborations. [ 68 ] The fund was valued at £0.8 million. The UK has also supported a UNDP program to train judges in areas that include sexual and gender-based violence, ethics, and case management. [ 69 ]
The Australian government, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation provide aid for democratic consolidation and structural reforms. For instance, all three currently contribute towards the UNDP’ s Integrated Governance Programme ( also supported by the UK government), aimed at building “ a resilient and peaceful democratic society through effective and accountable governance institutions, improved social cohesion, and strengthened capacity of civil society. ” [ 70 ]
The Maldives government is working with UNODC on a project to build the capacity of the Maldives Correctional Service in managing high-risk prisoners and prisoners requiring special management. [ 71 ] The MCS is also working with UNODC in training MCS officers on a revised risk assessment and prisoner classification tool. [ 72 ]
According to a long-time civil society activist, while donors have shown interest in funding more democratic reforms, shortcomings in program and coordination plague the efforts. Donors too often funnel funds toward resolving symptoms of systematic issues, rather than meaningful structural change. “ For instance, if you take the judiciary, a lot of effort has been made towards training of judges rather than … reforming the Judicial Services Commission, ” said the activist. He said that the lack of cohesive programming and coordination among donors is leading to duplication of efforts and poor implementation. [ 73 ]
The Maldives government’ s failure to credibly investigate and prosecute attacks on critics of the government, journalists, and others illustrates the deeply entrenched impunity for such crimes. The hope that the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances ( DDCom), which was established by the Solih administration soon after taking office, would be able to provide some measure of redress after these repeated failures, has also dimmed.
In the three cases examined below—the most prominent that have come before the DDCom—political interference, police cover-ups, and judicial misconduct have undermined credible investigations and eroded the chance for fair prosecutions. These failures point to systemic problems that can not be eradicated without a serious government commitment to reform.
On May 6, 2021, an improvised explosive device ( IED) was remotely detonated near Mohamed Nasheed’ s home, badly injuring him along with several bystanders and members of his security detail. Two months later, Nasheed publicly criticized the government’ s investigation into the attack, calling it incomplete so long as “ the people who planned this and who funded this remain at large. ” [ 74 ]
Acknowledging that the police in the Maldives lack forensics capacity, the government sought the assistance of international experts including members of the Australian Federal Police and from the UNODC in the investigation. [ 75 ] A statement by the People’ s Majlis in August 2021 revealed that Nasheed had appointed a British lawyer “ to exercise her expertise in evidence gathering … side by side with local and foreign law enforcement and lawyers. ” [ 76 ] In September 2021, during a virtual press conference, Nasheed said that the police were still looking into who funded and ordered the attack. [ 77 ]
The police ultimately charged nine people whom they maintained had either carried out the attack or conspired in the planning. They alleged that these suspects acted out of enmity toward Nasheed. [ 78 ] “ Prior to this, other individuals with similar ideologies have also carried out such attacks in the Maldives as well, ” Nasheed said in a media interview. “ While it may not have been an attack involving the detonation of an IED specifically aimed at me, three murders have been carried out previously under the same pattern. ” [ 79 ]
As of March 2022, four men had been prosecuted: Mujaz Ahmed, Thahmeen Ahmed, Ali Haisham, and Adhuham Ahmed Rasheed. Adhuham, identified as the man who detonated the IED, faced four charges: being involved in a terrorist attack; planning a terrorist attack; supporting a terrorist organization; and attempting to kill another with a dangerous weapon. [ 80 ] In a closed-door hearing he pleaded guilty in a plea deal with the state for a reduced 23-year sentence. According to the plea deal, Adhuham admitted to having been involved in the planning attack as part of ISIS. [ 81 ]
As of March 2022, the remaining suspects had been charged with “ aiding and abetting to commit an act of terrorism, conspiring to commit an act of terrorism, supporting a terrorist organization and for production, sale or transportation of weapons of war or items containing explosive or destructive material. ” [ 82 ] At time of writing, they were awaiting trial.
Nasheed’ s supporters have claimed that the main conspirators are unlikely to be held to account. [ 83 ] “ It is a real pity, but even in a high-profile case like this, the government is hesitating, ” said an analyst who did not wish to be identified. “ They could have used the opportunity to comprehensively crack down on extremism. ” [ 84 ]
On November 17, 2018, the day he was inaugurated, President Solih established the Commission on Disappearances and Deaths ( DDCom) to investigate 30 cases that involved attacks on members of civil society and political figures. [ 85 ] More than three years after it was established, the DDCom’ s investigations have stalled. Its chairman, Husnu Al Suood, left in December 2019 when he was appointed justice of the Supreme Court, and his position was not filled until February 3, 2021, when DDCom member Fareesha Abdulla replaced him.
The cases under investigation include threats and assaults that occurred in the Maldives between 2012 and 2017. In all cases the victims had received threats both in person and online from individuals associated with extremist gangs. The threats accused them of being laadheenee, but also criticized them for their political views, including speaking out about corruption by government officials.
Three major cases concern the attack on journalist and blogger Ismail Hilath Rasheed, who survived being stabbed in the neck in June 2012; the murder of Dr. Afrasheem Ali, a member of parliament and a religious scholar known for his sermons supporting gender equality and other liberal views, who was fatally stabbed outside his apartment in Malé on October 1, 2012; the abduction and enforced disappearance in 2014 of journalist Ahmed Rilwan, who had accused a number of politicians of corruption; and the murder of blogger Yameen Rasheed, who was stabbed to death in 2017.
Families of the victims have complained that the government had not actively pursued investigations. Both the MDP and civil society activists worked particularly closely with the families of journalist Ahmed Rilwan and Yameen Rasheed—the most recent cases before Nasheed’ s—in calling for justice. During the 2018 presidential elections, one of the key promises of the MDP campaign was to investigate and bring to justice those responsible for these deaths and disappearances.
The DDCom has produced reports only on its investigations into the cases of Afrasheem and Rilwan, but neither has led to arrests or prosecutions. In Yameen’ s case, in 2018 the police arrested six suspects accused of being directly involved in the attack, while others accused of conspiracy in the case were not publicly identified. The trial, which began before the DDCom was established, suffered numerous delays. The trial prevented DDCom from being able to complete its investigation into the case. With the conclusion of the trial, and the conviction of two men on January 23, 2022, the DDCom chair announced that the commission’ s investigation into the case would restart. [ 86 ]
Based on information on the DDCom’ s Twitter page, as of March 2022, the DDCom had concluded only three cases including one that was determined to have been a suicide, [ 87 ] and another the commission concluded was a case of custodial death in Maafushi Prison, for which it recommended prosecution. [ 88 ] In a third case, a murder suspect whom immigration authorities claimed had left the country in 2015, surfaced in a southern island. [ 89 ] The suspect was arrested on October 6, one day after the DDCom, having identified the suspect in CCTV footage of a murder scene from 2016, had launched a public appeal to locate him. [ 90 ]
These were the only cases that had made any progress. Husnu Al Suood, then chair of the commission, warned, in 2018, that justice in such cases would be impossible without major reforms to the criminal justice system, because gangs could engineer “ out-of-court settlements ” or “ fix ” witness statements to get the court to acquit the defendant. He also said that the gangs were able to influence judges: “ No matter how well we investigate and send cases, I don’ t believe we could have justice with the current judges at the criminal court. ” [ 91 ]
Suood told the Committee to Protect Journalists, in March 2019, that the authorities were to blame for providing political cover. “ There was an identified group [ behind the attacks ] and the state knew that … and had they stopped or investigated and prosecuted the people behind Rilwan’ s case then Yameen Rasheed’ s would not have occurred, ” he said. “ Even in Hilath’ s case, no action was taken at that time. ” He added, “ Had they stopped that in 2012, even Afrasheem’ s case I doubt could have happened. ” [ 92 ]
On September 2, 2019, the DDCom presented a report of its findings on the Rilwan case to the Speaker of Parliament. The following day, the media reported that Nasheed had made the report available to Parliamentary Group leaders, even though it included the identities of secret witnesses. [ 93 ] The report was later withdrawn from the Parliamentary Groups, but a summary report was published on the Majlis website soon after. [ 94 ] On November 17, the commission reported that “ local extremists ” had murdered former MP, Dr. Afrasheem Ali, in 2012. In both that case and Rilwan’ s, the commission implicated police and politicians in shielding the perpetrators from prosecution. [ 95 ]
On June 22, 2020, Nasheed claimed that the commission had informed him that they were unable to proceed any further with the investigations, citing that the publication of its initial findings by the Majlis as the reason for the challenges in uncovering further evidence. [ 96 ] The commission later denied having said this, stating that the investigations would continue. [ 97 ] However, as of March 2022, the Solih government had yet to follow through with indicting any government officials for their roles in abetting the crimes or failing to investigate them.
In a statement provided to Human Rights Watch on February 20, 2022, the DDCom said that its “ inquiry into the murders of religious scholar and Member of Parliament, Dr. Afrasheem Ali, blogger Yameen Rasheed and the disappearance of journalist and human rights defender Ahmed Rilwan Abdulla, indicate that all three cases are interlinked. ” [ 98 ] It said that it had received assistance in its investigations from experts provided by the organization Justice Rapid Response, and was now “ following new lines of enquiry suggested by the expert including liaising with expert forensic analysts. ” [ 99 ] The letter stated:
On October 1, 2012, Dr. Afrasheem Ali, a member of parliament from the PPM and a religious scholar known for his sermons supporting gender equality and other liberal views, was stabbed to death outside his apartment in Malé. [ 101 ]
Before the DDCom began investigating Afrasheem’ s case, one person had already been convicted and sentenced to death for his murder. Hussain Humam, who was 19 at the time, was arrested hours after the killing. [ 102 ] Others were also arrested, including some accused of previously threatening Afrasheem, but were ultimately released or acquitted by the courts due to lack of evidence.
Several due process concerns including contradictory statements by Humam during various stages of the investigation and trial called into question the fairness of the trial. Humam had a history of mental illness and was not provided with a defense lawyer. He initially confessed to the murder but later said that he had been coerced into making a confession by the police. At one stage of the trial, after Humam had asserted that he was not involved in the murder, the witness to his main alibi was found dead, which police said was due to an “ overdose of LSD. ” [ 103 ] Humam later confessed to the crime again in May 2013, giving a detailed account of the planning and killing and claiming that he was offered MVR 4 million ( US $ 259,000) for his part in the crime. However, before the verdict, he once again retracted his confession in June 2013. The Criminal Court, however, found him guilty and sentenced him to death, a ruling later upheld by both the High Court and the Supreme Court.
The government, at the time, overturned a longstanding moratorium on the death penalty in the Maldvies and moved swiftly to construct execution facilities. [ 104 ] Rights groups, the political opposition, and even Afrasheem’ s family members criticized the governments expedited move to execute Humam. [ 105 ] The family retracted their former wish seeking the death penalty for Humam—under the Islamic principle of qisas—and maintained that Humam was a key witness to the crime, who could help bring others involved in the attack to justice. As of March 2022, Humam was still on death row and no further arrests had been made in relation to the case.
A year into its own investigation into the Afrasheem murder, the DDCom published its findings, which indicated that Humam had been involved in the attack. [ 106 ] The commission also concluded that the attack had been planned by Azlif Rauf, a former member of the Maldives National Defence Force ( MNDF) who also had strong affiliation with criminal gangs. The commission also implicated him in the planning and abduction of Rilwan.
The report suggested that the perpetrators carried out the attack because they were opposed to Afrasheem’ s religious views. The report also stated that Mohamed Shaheem Ali Saeed, who was at the time minister for Islamic affairs, and later President Yameen’ s running mate in the 2018 presidential elections, knew of the planned attack, based on text messages Shaheem had sent in the days leading up to the murder. The DDCom noted that in his statement to the commission, Shameem had given false information contradicted by evidence collected from the text messages. Nasheed, while reading out the DDCom’ s report to the Majlis, noted that Shaheem had left the country the day after the murder. [ 107 ] The DDCom report also noted that nine other individuals who were believed to have been part of a radicalized group left the country the same day Shaheem did.
The commission acknowledged a number of challenges in relation to the Afrasheem case: seven years had passed by the time the investigation began; a number of suspects had left the country in those years; and key pieces of evidence were missing either because the police did not make available to the commission or claimed had been lost, including CCTV footage, intelligence reports, phone call data and a key piece of a phone recording that could have helped identify the person who funded the attack. [ 108 ]
Ahmed Rilwan, a 28-year-old journalist with the Maldives Independent and well-known blogger, went missing August 8, 2014. Rilwan wrote about corruption in Maldivian politics and about the connections between politicians and extremist gangs operating in the islands. He had received numerous threats via social media.
Five years after Rilwan’ s apparent abduction, in September 2019, the DDCom concluded that the attack was planned and carried out by extremists connected with Al-Qaeda who kidnapped Rilwan outside his apartment building in Hulhumalé, took him on board a boat, killed him, and then threw his body into the sea. [ 109 ]
The report named several people involved in various stages of the attack, including those who followed Rilwan prior to his kidnapping, owners of the vehicle and boat used to transport him, those involved in the actual attack, as well as planning. The report said that the police failed to arrest several suspects because they had already fled the Maldives, allegedly to join groups affiliated with ISIS in Syria, where some reportedly died. [ 110 ]
Earlier allegations had implicated the former tourism minister, and later vice president, Ahmed Adeeb, in Rilwan’ s disappearance. [ 111 ] The commission found that Adeeb had used his influence with the judiciary to obstruct justice in Rilwan’ s case. Phone records obtained by the DDCom showed that Adeeb had texted a criminal court judge with the names of some suspects while they were in police detention, following which the judge ordered their release. It was during this time that the suspects fled the country. [ 112 ] Among them was Azlif Rauf, who left the Maldives in January 2015, nine months after Rilwan’ s abduction. Rauf’ s family has claimed that he was killed in Syria in May of the same year. [ 113 ]
In October 2014, soon after Rilwan’ s disappearance, his family accused the police investigators of negligence in their investigation of the case and submitted a complaint to the National Integrity Commission ( NIC), which has the legal mandate to investigate unlawful acts or negligence by the police. Five years later, in September 2019, the NIC declared that it had found no evidence of police misconduct. [ 114 ] However, the DDCom’ s summary report showed that at least two police officers had tried to cover up Rilwan’ s disappearance upon orders from an unnamed “ boss, ” by claiming that Rilwan had left the country voluntarily and had died while out of the Maldives. [ 115 ]
In October 2020, Home Minister Imran Abdulla told the People’ s Majlis that evidence connecting Adeeb and other senior officials of President Yameen’ s administration to Rilwan’ s disappearance had gone missing. [ 116 ] The former DDCom chair, Husnu Al Suood also accused then President Yameen of having tried to “ divert the focus ” of the police investigation. [ 117 ]
Meanwhile Rilwan’ s family continued to raise concerns about the delays in justice. On the sixth anniversary of Rilwan’ s disappearance, they criticized President Solih for failing to act on his campaign pledge to bring justice for unexplained deaths and disappearances. [ 118 ] In July 2020, the family asked the government to seek the help of a foreign expert to investigate the abduction, and in November, the DDCom said that it had decided to do so. [ 119 ] In March 2021, while campaigning for the local council election, President Solih said that the foreign expert had requested a year’ s time to conclude the investigations, promising a final report on the disappearance of Rilwan by the DDCom by the end of 2021. [ 120 ] As of March 2022, the expert had not submitted the report.
In July 2021, the DDCom published a four-minute video reenactment of Rilwan’ s abduction and asked the public for any information regarding the case, including information about a knife that was recovered from the site of the abduction. [ 121 ] It also reiterated a reward of MVR 500,000 ( US $ 32,400) for pertinent information. The following month, a few days prior to the seventh anniversary of Rilwan’ s disappearance, the commission summoned former president Yameen for questioning in relation to allegations of obstruction of justice. Yameen’ s attorneys told the media that the former president chose to remain silent as the allegations against him were “ unclear. ” The attorneys also criticised the DDCom, saying that summoning Yameen was a move to hide its own failures in the investigation. [ 122 ]
Rilwan’ s friends and supporters have also criticized the performance of the DDCom and raised questions as to whether justice can be served when the police failed to investigate the case properly from the outset. [ 123 ]
On April 23, 2017, blogger Yameen Rasheed was found with 34 stab wounds in the stairwell of his apartment building in Malé. He had been a prominent social media activist known for his satirical commentaries on Twitter and his blog, The Daily Panic. His ridiculing of public figures had enraged some politicians, prominent religious leaders, and extremist gangs. He was also a friend of Rilwan and had focused much of his work on Rilwan’ s disappearance and the need to bring the perpetrators to justice. He had received threats since 2010. In the weeks following the murder, the police arrested eight suspects. [ 124 ] State prosecutors ultimately charged six with murder and one with aiding and abetting.
Of the three major cases being investigated by the DDCom, Yameen Rasheed’ s case was the only one being prosecuted at the time the commission was carrying out its own investigation. The trial was marked by numerous delays, with reasons ranging from administrative issues at the court, to the non-appearance of defense lawyers.
Not a single hearing was held in 2020 despite provisions made by courts to hold virtual sessions during the Covid-19 pandemic. [ 125 ] Only three hearings were held in 2021. In April 2021, the DDCom stated that as the case was sub judice—currently being considered by a court—its investigation into the murder could not go forward. [ 126 ]
On January 20, 2022, the Malé criminal court found two men guilty of murdering Yameen Rasheed and sentenced them to life imprisonment. Four others were acquitted for lack of evidence. With the conclusion of the trial, and the conviction of two men on January 23, 2022, the DDCom chair announced that the commission’ s investigation into the case would restart. [ 127 ]
Aisha Rasheed, Yameen Rasheed’ s sister, told Human Rights Watch that while she was initially hopeful when the administration changed in 2018, in the three years since, she became increasingly doubtful that there would be justice in the case. [ 128 ] She said that after the convictions were announced: “ The two people who were convicted were the ones who actually physically stabbed my brother. The only difference between those two and the other four is that they did not wield a knife. ” [ 129 ]
Like Rilwan’ s family, Yameen’ s family filed a complaint with the NIC, charging the police with negligence in the way they handled the murder investigation and for failing to investigate earlier threats against him. When the NIC refused the case, the family took the matter to the civil court, which, after three hearings, referred the family back to the NIC, which rejected the case after the family's lawyers failed to appear for a hearing.
Shortly after the 2018 elections, the Solih administration took steps to end repressive restrictions on the media. [ 130 ] Journalists in the Maldives have said that they no longer fear state censorship, as they did before the 2018 elections. Journalist Zaheena Rasheed, who had been forced to leave the country in 2018 after Al Jazeera broadcast an interview with her in which she accused the former administration of corruption, said she returned in 2020 after the Solih administration took office. “ I no longer have to look over my shoulder every time I am out alone, and I no longer worry that my communications are monitored by the police, ” she told Human Rights Watch. [ 131 ]
However, the government has failed to entrench fundamental rights and has proved unable to counter the continuing influence of extremist groups who can deem people as laadheenee, leading to threats and violence.
The Anti-Defamation and Freedom of Expression Act, enacted in 2016, had criminalized “ defamatory ” speech and imposed heavy fines for journalists convicted of violating its provisions. Before the act was rescinded, opposition-aligned media outlets were fined millions of rufiyaa, which deterred journalists from reporting stories critical of the government. [ 132 ] One network suspended its broadcast due to the hostile environment. [ 133 ] A key pledge during President Solih’ s campaign was to nullify the anti-defamation law. [ 134 ] Even before Solih took office, on November 14, 2018, the parliament voted in favor of repealing the law, with bipartisan endorsement. [ 135 ] Moosa Latheef, the former editor of Mihaaru news outlet, told Human Rights Watch that after the anti-defamation law was repealed, “ journalists and media houses no longer had to worry about hefty fines and criminal charges for simply reporting the news. ” [ 136 ]
While the changes marked a significant improvement, journalists in the Maldives still face threats from the authorities. On August 30, 2021, members of parliament introduced a bill that would compel media outlets to reveal sources. While the proposed Evidence Bill reiterated section 28 of the Constitution guaranteeing press freedom, it added two exceptions left to the discretion of the court under which journalists could be compelled to reveal their sources. First, if the court decides that there is no negative impact or not a significantly negative impact on the source if it were to be revealed, and second, “ if the impact of revealing a source does not significantly impact the ability of journalists to find sources. ” Human rights groups in the Maldives criticized the bill saying:
On September 28, Attorney General Ibrahim Riffath announced that the bill would be “ amended at [ the ] committee stage to address public and media concerns regarding provision granting courts rights to compel media to disclose sources. ” [ 138 ] In response to questions from Human Rights Watch in February 2022, the Attorney General’ s Office said that it was “ committed to resolving the concerns via revisions proposed to the bill at the committee stage. ” [ 139 ] As of March 2022, the bill had not yet been introduced.
On August 22, 2021, the Maldives Journalists Association ( MJA), the Maldives affiliate of the International Federation of Journalists ( IFJ), published a report, “ Chasing Justice: ” Maldives Study on Impunity for Crimes against Journalists, based on a survey in which 70 journalists took part, in addition to two focus groups. The survey results illustrated widespread fear among journalists about an increase in online threats, especially threats to women in the media who contend with gender specific threats and harassment; the power of Islamist extremist gangs; the dangers journalists face reporting on corruption; and near-total impunity for perpetrators. [ 140 ]
International press freedom groups also noted that impunity for past crimes, particularly the failure to credibly investigate and prosecute the cases of journalist Ahmed Rilwan and murdered blogger Yameen Rasheed, undermined the Solih administration’ s promises to restore media freedom. [ 141 ]
Reporters also faced police violence when covering protests. The Maldivian group RiseUpMV reported that police assaulted reporters covering a protest on September 19, 2021, which the group had organized to bring attention to abuse of children at state-run facilities. [ 142 ] The Maldives Media Council ( MMC) stated that it had also received complaints that several journalists were injured by police using force to disperse the protesters, and that the police had obstructed some journalists’ efforts to cover the protest. [ 143 ]
In February 2021, the IFJ raised concerns about police handling of media personnel during a protest held by opposition parties. [ 144 ] It noted that in once instance, the police tackled a Channel-13 cameraperson to the ground, injuring him, and in another, used excessive force to remove two other Channel-13 employees from a restaurant near the protest area, despite their media passes. The police later told the media that their removal from the restaurant was accidental and that their objective was to bring out protesters from the restaurant. [ 145 ]
Incitement to violence on social media, which had escalated during the Yameen administration, has receded somewhat under the Solih government, but threats remain. [ 146 ] For instance, although freedom of information activist Aiman Latheef told Human Rights Watch that he had not received any threats in recent years, he self-censors on social media on certain topics for fear of being labelled as laadheenee. [ 147 ]
Although the authorities pose less of a threat to activists than was previously the case, the Solih government has failed to act against extremist groups that use social media to incite violence and hatred against human rights defenders, including journalists, and rights organizations.
In a written response to Human Rights Watch regarding the measures taken by the government to ensure the safety of individuals working in civil society, the President’ s Office acknowledged that individuals who report threats are left feeling that their complaints are not being addressed adequately. It said that the government was actively working with state institutions to bring reforms. [ 148 ] In response to questions from Human Rights Watch about progress in curbing such threats, the Attorney General’ s Office said:
Ibrahim Ismail, the chairman of Mandhu College and a former lawmaker, faced threats in January 2019, after he criticized a ruling by a magistrate sentencing a 25-year-old woman to death by stoning on charges of adultery. Although the Maldives Supreme Court overturned the verdict the following day, debate continued on social media. [ 150 ] After Ismail challenged Islamic clerics over claims that the Prophet Mohammad had called for such a punishment, unidentified assailants broke the glass on his institute’ s main door, and Islamist extremist groups accused him of blasphemy and threatened to set up a social media campaign to track his movements. [ 151 ] Ismail was branded as laadheenee on social media with some even calling for his beheading for blasphemy. The government is yet to investigate and this harassment, intimidation, and assault.
In December 2020, Ali Anim, a resident of Addu City, faced threats for a social media post against religious extremism. This was exacerbated when the online news outlet Vaguthu published two articles about him, with his details and photos. This led to increased risk of physical attack after a social media campaign branded him an apostate. A number of religious groups called for the police to investigate Anim. The police eventually questioned Anim and confiscated his electronic devices for further investigation. Anim also filed a complaint against Vaguthu for inciting violence against him—he said that he does not know if the police carried out any investigation:
In 2020, Vaguthu itself received threats after it published an article on the operations of extremist groups in Addu City. One of the journalists who contributed to the publication, Mohamed Usam, told Human Rights Watch that he and other journalists who worked on the article received a number of threats from unknown social media accounts following its publication, but said that the police provided protection when informed of the threats. He said:
On May 31, 2021, just weeks after the attack on Nasheed, the MDP party submitted an amendment to the penal code known as the “ Hate Crime Bill. ” Drafted by the Attorney General’ s Office, the amendment seeks to make acts of violence motivated by political beliefs, race, nationality, or skin color a criminal offense. The bill became most notable and contentious for its attempt to criminalize the use of the word “ laadheenee ” toward a Muslim. [ 154 ]
A coalition of parties and religious groups campaigned against the amendment, criticizing it as a “ secular bill ” and claiming that it would prevent Maldivian citizens from exposing those who defied or mocked Islam. [ 155 ] The attempt to criminalize the word laadheenee also created rifts not only within the ruling coalition, but within the MDP as well. [ 156 ] Some who supported the bill, including Hisaan Hussain, the member of parliament who submitted it, reported receiving death threats. [ 157 ] The authorities did not hold any public consultations at the drafting stage, which drew criticism from civil society groups. Its opponents also included free speech advocates, one of whom noted that the bill “ goes beyond regulating hate speech by targeting speech that should be protected under international law. ” [ 158 ]
The campaign against the bill from religious groups, including the Adhaalath Party, a member of the governing coalition, led to changes in the draft that reflected their concerns. [ 159 ] In September, the Attorney General announced that the bill had been further amended following discussions with the Islamic Ministry. [ 160 ] Parliament passed it on November 16, 2021 and on November 28, President Solih ratified it as the Fifth Amendment to the Penal Code. The law criminalizes “ portraying people as non-believers or as anti-Islamic based on views expressed on religious matters in which religious scholars have conflicts or opposing views. It also dissuades the labeling of a Muslim as anti-Islamic unless the person publicly proclaims himself to be a non-believer, comes out as a non-believer, or deliberately commits an act of kufr [ disbelief ]. ” [ 161 ]
Maldivian civil society includes social organizations and activists who play a key role in promoting human rights. Some of these groups have been actively involved in monitoring and reporting on abuses under the Yameen government and who continue to speak for the rights of marginalized groups, like migrant workers, women, and LGBT people. They often face hostility from religious groups who claim these causes are against Islamic tenets.
Ahid Rasheed, former program and governance manager of Transparency Maldives, the local chapter of Transparency International, told Human Rights Watch that under the Solih administration, government institutions have been more willing than the previous administration to engage with rights advocates in policy consultations. He noted, however, continuing tensions within the government that raise questions about its commitment to protect rights. He described what happened to Transparency Maldives after some religious groups claimed it was “ irreligious. ” [ 162 ] On August 18, 2021, when the Ministry of Education announced that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding ( MoU) with Transparency Maldives on a project, “ Promoting Resilience in the Maldives, ” both the ministry and Transparency faced a backlash on social media under the hashtag # BanTranparency, with critics branding the organization and its staff as laadheenee. [ 163 ] Religious groups used Clubhouse, a social media platform, to accuse the Education Ministry of working with Transparency Maldives to “ make the educational curriculum secular. ” [ 164 ] The campaign however failed to get as much traction as the movement against MDN.
Jamiyyathu Salaf, a Salafist religious group, also called upon the Ministry of Education to share the MoU. [ 165 ] In response, the ministry made the MoU public on its website on August 25. [ 166 ] The MoU states the key objectives of the project were to “ improve understanding of radicalization and violent extremism in the Maldives to assist policy making, enhance agency and social cohesion of populations, and improve career prospects and employment opportunities for youth. ” [ 167 ]
The campaign against Transparency Maldives mirrored earlier campaigns, such as the one against MDN, to discredit organizations that have raised concerns about religion-based violence in the Maldives.
In June 2020, Uthema, a group advocating for gender equality, was targeted by extremists who accused it of being anti-Islam. A social media campaign demanded that the government ban Uthema for publishing a report assessing the government’ s adherence to its obligations under the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women. Those behind the campaign alleged that the report offended Muslim sentiment. The group drew fire for endorsing certain sections of the MDN report on radicalization in the Maldives.
A number of local island councils and the Adhaalath Party joined the calls to ban Uthema and take action against its leadership. A human rights activist told Human Rights Watch that the groups behind the campaign had been emboldened by the government’ s ban on MDN. The representative said:
The Maldivian Democracy Network ( MDN), formerly the Maldivian Detainee Network, was formed in 2004 to assist political detainees and their families. [ 169 ] MDN was formally registered in 2006 and expanded its human rights mandate, working in areas such as police and prison reform, legal and constitutional education, and independent oversight of state institutions. [ 170 ] Since its inception, and under different administrations, as the country’ s leading human rights organization, MDN and its personnel faced various threats including pressure of being deregistered, as well as threats of violence to its members on social media. [ 171 ]
However, it was not until the Solih government that any administration took the step to deregister MDN. In September 2019, MDN and its staff became the target of a social media campaign because of a 2015 report the organization had published on the rise in violent extremism in Maldives, which their opponents claimed included language insulting Islam. [ 172 ] The campaign used the hashtag # BanMDN and called for criminal charges against MDN’ s executive committee and those involved in authoring the report. [ 173 ] Protests took place on several islands and over 110 local councils—out of 200—made official statements in support of the call to ban MDN. Apart from pressure from the opposition to ban MDN, the ruling MDP also faced calls to do some from within the party. Party members were warned not to make any public statements. [ 174 ]
On October 9, 2019, MDN publicly acknowledged that some of the language in the report could be misunderstood and said it would incorporate revisions. [ 175 ] This, however, did not quell the campaign. On November 5, 2019, the government yielded to pressure from religious leaders and political opposition figures and ordered the dissolution of MDN. [ 176 ] Government officials told Human Rights Watch that they did so out of concern the protests would spiral out of control. [ 177 ] The MDN leadership was forced into exile because of violent threats from extremist groups. [ 178 ] The police failed to take investigate and prosecute those responsible for the threats.
Given the three-year gap between the report’ s publication and when complaints about it started to surface on social media, Shahinda Ismail, the executive director of MDN, believes that there were other factors that may have triggered the furor. MDN had backed government-proposed amendments to the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2015, which some clerics and gang leaders feared could target them. [ 179 ] In addition, she said that the MDN had called for amendments to a transitional justice bill to expand investigation and prosecution for human rights violations during previous administrations. These actions may have prompted opposition leaders to join with religious groups in calling for MDN’ s deregistration, especially former president Gayoom and his supporters. “ The expedited closure of MDN is a clear sign of how much radical elements have consolidated their power within the system, ” Ismail said. [ 180 ]
Among President Solih’ s campaign pledges was a commitment to abolish laws that had been used to curtail citizens’ right to freedom of assembly. However, despite the ruling party holding a supermajority of 65 seats in parliament, in November 2020, the parliament rejected proposed amendments to the Freedom of Assembly Act that would have nullified provisions granting the authorities power to restrict protests. [ 181 ] At least 56 MPs voted for the amendments to be sent back to the Parliamentary Committee on National Security and Foreign Relations. As of March 2022, the committee had yet to submit its review.
The restrictions include requiring organizers of assemblies to inform the police of any planned gatherings and give the police wide discretion in granting permission. For instance, under article 33 of the law, police may broadly restrict the right to assembly if the gathering poses a threat to national security, to maintain public safety, to establish public order in accordance with legislation, to protect “ public morals, ” or to protect the rights and freedoms of individuals. Not obtaining prior permission can have consequences beyond just preventing the protest: On December 11, 2021, the Maldives civil court upheld a Maldives Police Service ( MPS) decision to dismiss Aisha Rasheed, Yameen Rasheed’ s sister, from her job as assistant director for participating in an August 8, 2017 march marking the third anniversary of Ahmed Rilwan’ s abduction. The march had been deemed unlawful because the organizers had not obtained permission from the police beforehand as required under the Freedom of Assembly Act. [ 182 ]
The act also allows police to restrict demonstrations to designated areas and limits access for journalists, including when police are dispersing a protest. In May 2021, police used excessive force to stop a Labor Day protest held in Malé by Rise Up MV, an organization that advocates for children’ s rights, using pepper spray on protesters and journalists at close quarters and hand-cuffing adult protesters after forcing them to the ground. [ 183 ] Reporters Without Borders criticized the police and called for the government to investigate complaints of police brutality against journalists. [ 184 ] Several protesters were arrested but released shortly after. [ 185 ] The Human Rights Commission of the Maldives noted that allegations of police abuse should be investigated under the Anti-Torture Act and that all citizens be given the right to freely protest. [ 186 ] Police Commissioner Mohamed Hameed announced an investigation into the actions of the officers concerned, but as of March 2022, no findings had been announced. [ 187 ]
The government has also used measures meant to prevent the spread of Covid-19 to prevent protests. In February 2021, the police in Malé arrested opposition party members who had held a demonstration outdoors protesting the government’ s allotment of public housing. All were released but fined for breaking the Health Protection Agency’ s guidelines on Covid-19. [ 188 ] However, opposition party leaders, including MP Adam Shareef, claimed that the protests were held in accordance with Covid-19 requirements on social distancing and masks. Shareef noted that the opposition protests were being held due to the deteriorating conditions in the country and that “ Covid-19 can not be used as a weapon to infringe on people’ s right to be heard. ” [ 189 ]
Since the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020, the government has also interpreted the public safety provision of the law broadly to block migrant workers’ protests that took place between May and July 2020. [ 190 ] For example, on July 14, 2020, the Home Affairs Ministry declared that street protests and marches could only be held with prior written approval from the Maldives Police Service, except in one closed-off location in Malé. [ 191 ] In June 2020, the political movement Navaanavai organized a protest in front of the People’ s Majlis over the deteriorating socioeconomic conditions linked to the pandemic and restrictions to contain an outbreak. The police broke up the protest. Ahmed Mohamed, a member of Navaanavai, said that police action violated the right to peaceful assembly. “ The protests included 14 individuals, all of whom were socially distanced and wearing masks, ” he said. [ 192 ]
In July 2020, Ikleela Hameed, the founder of Voice of Children, a children’ s rights organization, said the police had reached out to her prior to planned protests demanding justice for sexual offenses against children. [ 193 ] Hameed noted that while her group held their protest as required under the health guidelines, the police still blocked it. She said:
Ahid Rasheed said that since the pandemic began, the government has imposed additional restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, but, because of this, the government’ s willingness to protect the right to freedom of assembly has not actually been put to the test. [ 195 ] In response to questions from Human Rights Watch, the government said it is “ committed to upholding all rights enshrined in the Constitution ” and is ” waiting on the outcome of the bill on repealing the 2013 Freedom of Peaceful Assembly Act, before considering other measures to improve citizens right to peaceful assembly. ” [ 196 ]
The Maldives has struggled to address deep-rooted corruption and the continuing influence of extremist groups and criminal gangs on its judiciary, police, and other government institutions.
In order to do so effectively, it needs to tackle longstanding impunity. However, successful prosecutions can only be mounted if their investigations are based on credible evidence and with the cooperation of appropriate witnesses. In the Maldives, witnesses are frequently threatened by perpetrators, particularly those who enjoy political patronage.
In this regard, it is vital that the Commission on Deaths and Disappearances complete its inquiries in a credible, transparent, and time-bound manner, including by questioning relevant government officials and security force members. The government should act on the Commission’ s findings by prosecuting those found responsible for rights violations, and by ensuring independent investigations into other instances in which activists and others have been targeted as laadheeneelaadheenee and prosecuting those responsible for violent crimes.
Donors should assist the Maldives to develop the capacity to gather evidence for criminal prosecutions, including through forensic means, to adopt policies that support and protect witnesses, and to provide training to ensure due process and fair trials.
The Maldives has not developed a transparent and impartial process to select judges. The judiciary appointed by a politicized JSC has raised serious concerns about the independence of the judiciary. The government, through the Judicial Service Commission, should credibly and impartially investigate all allegations of judicial misconduct, including corruption and political interference in the courts. In addition, it should ensure that the composition and functioning of the Judicial Service Commission itself is in line with international principles of independence and accountability of the judiciary.
Judges typically do not have training or experience in international human rights standards. Many also need support in practical judicial skills, such as decision writing, drafting directions and orders, and proper courtroom procedures. The trial and appeals process is also subject to many delays, which hinders access to justice for those whose rights have been violated.
Lack of accountability has also undermined the proper functioning of the police. The government should ensure that police officers are held accountable for abuses including torture, assault, and excessive use of force. Donor support should also incorporate best practices for recruitment, training, and command oversight of the police to reduce and eliminate bias based on religion, political views, and other grounds. Donors should help create a system of oversight in which supervisors hold their charges accountable for mistreatment and are themselves reviewed and evaluated, in part, by how they address subordinate officers who commit human rights violations.
Ultimately, genuine reform of the criminal justice system will require political will at the highest levels of government to bring about greater respect for basic rights. It is important that donor support encourages greater political will to address the Maldives’ longstanding problems in the judiciary and police.
When the Solih administration took office it pledged to make a number of legislative changes to better protect human rights. As of March 2022, only some of these changes had been made. Among those that the government should act on urgently is to amend the Maldives criminal code and the Freedom of Peaceful Assembly Act to conform to international standards on freedom of expression and assembly.
This report was written by Nash’ ath Mohamed, consultant to Human Rights Watch. Patricia Gossman, associate Asia director and Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia director of the Asia Division, edited and provided divisional review. James Ross, legal and policy director, provided legal review; and Danielle Haas senior editor in the program office, provided program review. Editorial and production assistance was provided by Racqueal Legerwood, senior coordinator for the Asia Division; and Travis Carr, senior publications coordinator. The report was prepared for publication by Jose Martinez, senior coordinator, and Fitzroy Hepkins, administrative manager.
Human Rights Watch wishes to thank all those in The Maldives who agreed to be interviewed. We have honored their requests for anonymity.
[ 1 ] The Maldives has a population of about 550,000. Maldivians are ethnically Dhivehi, and 99 percent Sunni Muslim. Islam is the state religion, and proselytizing other religions is prohibited. The Maldives was governed as a sultanate from the 12th century and came under colonial rule by both the Portuguese and Dutch before becoming a British protectorate.
[ 2 ] Islam has been the state religion since its first constitution in 1932. Proselytizing is forbidden. Hassan Amir, “ Islamism and radicalism in the Maldives, ” Master’ s Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, 2011. https: //calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/10724/11Dec Amir.pdf? sequence=1 & isAllowed=y, ( accessed February 15, 2022). With assistance from Pakistan, Brunei, and the states of the Persian Gulf, Gayoom established the Islamic Center of Maldives in 1984. The building also houses the Ministry of Islamic Affairs. During Gayoom’ s rule, the Maldives started to play a more prominent role in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation ( formerly the Organization of the Islamic Conference). “ All these developments enabled Maldives to garner increased assistance from these states, especially in fields like education. It was at this time that significant numbers of Maldivian youth began attending various Islamic education institutes in places such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and India. These youth later became the vanguard of the Islamic revivalist movement in Maldives. ” Ibid.
[ 3 ] Ibid., p. 30.
[ 4 ] Mohamed Faisal, “ Living on a crowded island: Urban transformation in the Maldives, ” n.d., https: //devnet.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Mohammed% 20Faisal.% 20Living% 20on% 20a% 20crowded% 20island% 20Urban% 20transformation% 20in% 20the% 20Maldives.pdf ( accessed February 19, 2022).
[ 5 ] Ibid., pp. 31-32. On September 29, 2007, an improvised bomb exploded in a Malé park. The men suspected of planting it were accused of links to foreign terrorist groups. While no further bombings have occurred, some 200 Maldivians are thought to have traveled to Iraq and Syria to join Al Qaeda and the Islamic State ( ISIS), a disproportionate number for Maldives’ small population. In October 2019, Maldivian police arrested an alleged ISIS recruiter, Mohamad Ameen, on “ suspicion of spreading extremist ideology. ” He was suspected of involvement in the 2007 bombing. US Department of State, “ Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: Maldives, ” https: //www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2019/maldives/ ( accessed February 17, 2022).
[ 6 ] Boris Wille, “ Defending Islam in an Islamic State: Islamic Nationalist Discourse, Democratic Reform, and the Religious
Commitment of the State in the Maldives, ” Asian Ethnology, 2021, 80:1, pp. 199-226, https: //www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/27032444, ( accessed February 17, 2022).
[ 7 ] “ Maldivian police join protesters: Opposition, ” Times Online, February 7, 2012,
https: //web.archive.org/web/20120207081726/http: //sundaytimes.lk/index.php? option=com content & view=article & id=15524: maldivian-police-join-protesters-opposition & catid=1: latest-news & Itemid=547.
[ 8 ] Human Rights Watch, An All -Out Assault on Democracy, ( New York: Human Rights Watch, 2018), https: //www.hrw.org/report/2018/08/16/all-out-assault-democracy/crushing-dissent-maldives.
[ 9 ] “ Maldives election: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih claims victory, ” BBC, September 23, 2018, https: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45592375 ( accessed October 4, 2021).
[ 10 ] @ ibusolih, “ I pledge to open investigations into journalist Ahmed Rilwan’ s disappearance, Yameen Rasheed’ s murder, repeal the anti defamation act and ensure press freedom. ”, Twitter, Sepptember 15, 2018, 6:39 a.m., https: //twitter.com/ibusolih/status/1040912863747952647? lang=he, ( accessed October 4, 2021).
[ 11 ] “ Maldives Ex-Leader Mohamed Nasheed Tipped As New Speaker, ” AFP, May 28, 2019, https: //www.ndtv.com/world-news/maldives-ex-leader-mohamed-nasheed-tipped-as-new-speaker-2043883 ( accessed October 4, 2021).
[ 12 ] Human Rights Watch interview with a former member of the Prosecutor General’ s office, London, June 2019.
[ 13 ] “ Police Reforms: Maldives, ” Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative, https: //www.humanrightsinitiative.org/content/police-reforms-the-maldives ( accessed June 9, 2021).
[ 14 ] Ibid.
[ 15 ] Maldivian Democracy Network, “ Police Reforms in the Maldives: A Compilation, ” April 5, 2019, https: //mvdemocracy.org/police-reforms-in-the-maldives-a-compilation-2019/ ( accessed June 09, 2021).
[ 16 ] Prison Audit Commission, “ Maldives Prison Audit Report 2019, ” April 3, 2019, https: //www.gov.mv/dv/files/final-report-cpa-for-publication2.pdf -- 1 ( accessed May 25, 2021).
[ 17 ] “ Three police officers dismissed, one demoted over public harassment: CP Hameed, ” The Edition, June 16, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/17281 ( accessed June 09, 2021). Human Rights Watch phone interview with member of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives Shifaath Razzaq, May 25, 2021.
[ 18 ] “ The Act establishes the fundamental principles, guidelines, roles and other aspects concerning police officers, aiming to streamline policing in the country by ensuring adherence to the constitution. Police officers are mandated to ensure the safety of all members of the public, without any discrimination or influence, and in line with human rights best practises. The Act also promotes professional standards within the police force and paves the way for the establishment of community-based policing services under a decentralised system of governance. ” The President’ s Office, Republic of Maldives, “ President Ratifies Maldives Police Service Act, ” December 27, 2020, https: //presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/24190 ( accessed August 31, 2021).
[ 19 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 20 ] Ali Faaiq, “ Police start to follow newly amended Police Service Act, ” The Times of Addu, March 26, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/03/26/police-start-to-follow-newly-amended-police-service-act/ ( accessed August 31, 2021).
[ 21 ] Naizak Mohamed, “ Seven senior police officers to be removed from their posts, ” Sun Online, August 10, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/68335 ( accessed October 12, 2021).
[ 22 ] “ ACP Ahmed, Jamsheed dismissed from police force, ” Avas, October 11, 2021, https: //avas.mv/en/108257 ( accessed October 12, 2021). The new law mandated no legal deadline to implement the board’ s decision.
[ 23 ] Areeba, “ Five senior officers file court case against the Police Board, ” The Times of Addu, October 6, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/10/06/five-senior-officers-file-court-case-against-the-police-board/ ( accessed October 12, 2021);
Nazaik Mohamed, “ High Court Issues Stay Order on the Termination of Senior Police Officers, ” Sun Online, https: //en.sun.mv/69841, ( accessed February 14, 2022).
[ 24 ] Ibid.
[ 25 ] Torture Victims Association and Redress, “ This is what I wanted to tell you, ” June 2012, https: //www.refworld.org/pdfid/5064180e6a5a.pdf ( accessed May 6, 2021).
[ 26 ] Prison Audit Commission, “ Maldives Prison Audit Report 2019, ” April 3, 2019, https: //www.gov.mv/dv/files/final-report-cpa-for-publication2.pdf -- 1 ( accessed May 25, 2021).
[ 27 ] UN, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, “ Preliminary observations and recommendations of the United Nations Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, Mr. Nils Melzer, on his official visit to Maldives, ” https: //www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx? NewsID=25351 & LangID=E ( accessed May 6, 2021).
[ 28 ] Ibrahim Adam, “ Man Dies in Pre-Trial Detention, ” The Maldives Journal, October 6, 2021, https: //themaldivesjournal.com/30195 ( accessed October 12, 2021).
[ 29 ] Areeba, “ Man remanded to custody at Malé Jail dies, ” The Times of Addu, October 7, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/10/07/man-remanded-to-custody-at-male-jail-dies/ ( accessed October 12, 2021).
[ 30 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Shahindha Ismail, February 25, 2021.
[ 31 ] UN, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, “ Preliminary observations and recommendations of the United Nations Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, Mr. Nils Melzer, on his official visit to Maldives, ” https: //www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx? NewsID=25351 & LangID=E ( accessed May 6, 2021)
[ 32 ] Human Rights Watch interview with member of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives Shifaath Razzaq, Malé, March 31, 2022.
[ 33 ] In November 2021, the Maldives Police Service issued a public statement expressing concern about the HRCM and the Prosecutor General’ s decision to press charges against 13 police officers who were accused of torturing children in a state-run children’ s shelter. “ Police express concern over decision to prosecute officers for torture, ” Sun.mv, November 11, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/70361 ( accessed March 31, 2022). Human Rights Watch interview with member of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives Shifaath Razzaq, Malé, March 31, 2022.
[ 34 ] Human Rights Watch interview with member of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives Shifaath Razzaq, Malé, May 25, 2021.
[ 35 ] Ibid.
[ 36 ] Ibid.
[ 37 ] “ Three police officers dismissed, one demoted over public harassment: CP Hameed, ” The Edition, June 16, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/17281 ( accessed June 9, 2021); Human Rights Watch interview with member of the Human Rights Commission of the Maldives Shifaath Razzaq, Malé, May 25, 2021.
[ 38 ] “ Judicial Service Commission a. There shall be a Judicial Service Commission of the Maldives. b. The Judicial Service Commission is an independent and impartial institution. It shall perform its duties and responsibilities in accordance with the Constitution and any laws enacted by the People's Majlis. The jurisdiction of the Judicial Service Commission shall extend to all members of the Judiciary and such other persons as designated by the People's Majlis. c. The Judicial Service Commission shall function as provided by the statute governing the Judicial Service Commission. Such statute shall specify the responsibilities, powers, mandate, qualifications, and ethical standards of members. ” Constitution of the Maldives, 2008, section 157. https: //www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Maldives 2008.pdf? lang=en, p. 45 ( accessed January 25, 2022).
[ 39 ] Gabriella Knaul, “ Assessment of the Justice Sector Reform Proposals Final Report, Republic of Maldives, ” August 2019, https: //erc.undp.org/evaluation/managementresponses/keyaction/documents/download/3557 ( accessed June 09, 2021). Some observers have argued that the politicized composition of the commission contributed to controversy, others that individual members had undermined its independence.
[ 40 ] In 2018, under the Yameen government, the Supreme Court had ordered the release of nine political prisoners, ruling that their trials had violated the constitution and international law, and were “ politically motivated. ” President Yameen denounced the ruling as “ illegal, ” and declared a state of emergency. He then had Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed arrested. In an obvious case of submitting to political pressure, the remaining three Supreme Court justices reversed the ruling stating they were doing so “ in light of the concerns raised by the president. ” “ Maldives Ex-President Nasheed Seeks Help from India and US, ” BBC News, February 6, 2018, http: //www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42958179, ( accessed August 21, 2021).
[ 41 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Adam Shareef, March 1, 2021.
[ 42 ] For instance, on January 7, 2019, a magistrate in Naifaru, an island in northern Maldives, sentenced a 25-year-old woman to death by stoning on charges of adultery. The Maldives Supreme Court overturned the verdict the following day. “ Maldives top court quashes death by stoning verdict for adultery, ” Maldives Independent, January 7, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/crime-2/maldives-top-court-quashes-death-by-stoning-verdict-for-adultery-143374 ( accessed April 2, 2021).
[ 43 ] “ Gangs ‘ nominate’ criminal court judges, ” Maldives Independent, December 31, 2018, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/gangs-nominate-criminal-court-judges-143319 ( accessed August 31, 2021).
[ 44 ] “ Court cancels Tuesday’ s hearing in case against Suood, ” Sun Online, https: //en.sun.mv/51962, ( accessed February 15, 2022).
[ 45 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 46 ] Written response to Human Rights Watch by the President’ s Office, April 22, 2021.
[ 47 ] “ Jazeera Raajje Manifesto 2018, ” Maldivian Democratic Party, 2018, https: //mdp.org.mv/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/manifesto 2018 web.pdf ( accessed June 9, 2021).
[ 48 ] Fathona Faiz, “ Will reform JSC, do not know when yet: Mabrook, Asuru Online, September 01, 2021, https: //asuruonline.com/news.php? slug=1299 ( accessed September 6, 2021).
[ 49 ] “ Judge Faiz: Yameen sentenced after holding judges hostage, ” Sun Online, August 29, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/68778 ( accessed September 6, 2021).
[ 50 ] Hussain Aruban Favaz, “ Promotions given to the judges on the bench that sentenced Yameen is a coincidence ”, Vaguthu Online, August 29, 2021, https: //vaguthu.mv/news/610709 ( accessed September 6, 2021).
[ 51 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 52 ] US Department of State, “ Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2018: Maldives, ” https: //www.state.gov/reports/2018-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/maldives/ ( accessed May 6, 2021)
[ 53 ] “ Maldives Prison Audit Report 2019, ” Prison Audit Commission, April 03, 2019, https: //www.gov.mv/dv/files/final-report-cpa-for-publication2.pdf -- 1 ( accessed May 25, 2021).
[ 54 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Shahindha Ismail, February 25, 2021.
[ 55 ] Office of the High Commissioner, United Nations Human Rights, “ Preliminary observations and recommendations of the United Nations Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, Mr. Nils Melzer, on his official visit to Maldives, ” https: //www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx? NewsID=25351 & LangID=E ( accessed May 6, 2021)
[ 56 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Inspector of Correctional Services Noora Mohamed, May 22, 2021.
[ 57 ] UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, “ Preliminary Findings from its visit to Maldives ( 29 November to 9 December 2021), ” https: //www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx? NewsID=27932 & LangID=E ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 58 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 59 ] Ibid.
[ 60 ] Written response by the President’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, April 22, 2021. See Appendix II.
[ 61 ] UNDP Maldives, “ Youth Vulnerability in the Maldives, ” February, 2019, https: //nctc.gov.mv/publications/documents/YVA2019.pdf ( accessed May 6, 2021).
[ 62 ] University of Pennsylvania law professor Paul Robinson led the UNDP drafting effort. “ Penal code drafted by Prof. Paul Robinson and students is enacted in the Maldives, ” Penn Law, May 8, 2014, https: //www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/4728-penal-code-drafted-by-prof-paul-robinson-and #.VfAahhGqpBd ( accessed March 2, 2022).
[ 63 ] Previously, same-sex conduct had been a crime under Sharia law but had not been incorporated into the state penal code. In September 2015, President Yameen ratified the third amendment to the Penal Code, which stated that Islamic law penalties should be imposed for Hadd offenses, including same-sex conduct. US Department of State, “ Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2015: Maldives, ” https: //2009-2017.state.gov/j/drl/rls/hrrpt/humanrightsreport/index.htm ( accessed March 2, 2022).
[ 64 ] USAID, “ Democracy and Governance, ” October 7, 2021, https: //www.usaid.gov/maldives/democracy-and-governance ( accessed September 16, 2021).
[ 65 ] USAID, “ Strong and Inclusive Maldivian Democracy, ” August 2021, https: //www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USAID Maldives GVP 08-2021 - SIMD.pdf ( accessed September 16, 2021).
[ 66 ] USAID, “ Promoting Resilience in Maldives, ” September 2021, https: //www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USAID Maldives GVP 09-2021 - PRIME.pdf ( accessed September 16, 2021).
[ 67 ] Written Response to HRW by Delegation of the European Union to Sri Lanka and Maldives, July 6, 2021.
[ 68 ] The British High Commission in Maldives, “ CSSF Programme Summary, ” https: //assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment data/file/1003165/Maldives programme summary 2020 to 2021.odt ( accessed September 16, 2021).
[ 69 ] UNDP Maldives, “ Judicial Curriculum Training Programme Concludes, ” January 13, 2022, https: //www.mv.undp.org/content/maldives/en/home/presscenter/articles/2022/judicialcurriculumtraining.html ( accessed February 25, 2022).
[ 70 ] UNDP Maldives, Integrated Governance Programme II, https: //open.undp.org/projects/00093667 ( accessed September 16, 2021).
[ 71 ] United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “ Final Independent Project Evaluation Support to Maldives on Counter Terrorism, ” December 2021, https: //www.unodc.org/documents/evaluation/Independent Project Evaluations/2021/Final Evaluation Report Support to Maldives on Counter Terrorism.pdf ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 72 ] Ibid.
[ 73 ] Human Rights Watch interview with civil society activist [ name withheld ], [ location withheld ], September 22, 2021.
[ 74 ] “ Nasheed dissatisfied with investigation to find financers of May 6 blast, ” Sun Online, July 6, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/67622 ( accessed July 27, 2021); Fathmath Zunaam, “ Proper Investigation Was Not Done on May Terror Attack: Alex Ahmed, ” The Times of Addu, July 19, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/07/19/proper-investigation-was-not-done-on-may-terror-attack-alex-ahmed/ ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 75 ] “ Attack on ex-president Nasheed was a 'deliberate act of terror ': Maldives Police, ” ANI, May 7, 2021,
https: //www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/attack-on-ex-president-nasheed-was-a-deliberate-act-of-terror-maldives-police20210507173430/ ( accessed July 27, 2021).
[ 76 ] People’ s Majlis, “ Speaker of the Peoples’ Majlis appoints British QC to represent him and examine and work alongside the criminal investigation into the terrorist attack against him in the Maldives, ” https: //majlis.gov.mv/storage/downloads/9s7f47Y12QUXN5c9C5ioW2jCjDa53MSpxduKyCb8.pdf ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 77 ] Mizna Mohamed, “ I have confidence in the Police: Nasheed, ” The Press, September 5, 2021, https: //en.thepress.mv/13226 ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 78 ] Aisshath Shaany, “ No evidence of financial motive behind attack on Maldives ex-leader, ” Raajje, July 24, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/103770 ( accessed November 1, 2021); “ Maldives bombing: 'Prime suspect ' in attack on Mohamed Nasheed arrested, ” BBC News, May 9, 2021, https: //www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57049128 ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 79 ] Fathmath Zunam, “ May 6 terror attack has no direct links to ISIS: Police, ” The Times of Addu, July 25, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/07/25/may-6-terror-attack-has-no-direct-links-to-isis-police/ ( accessed July 27, 2021).
[ 80 ] Zunana Zalif, “ Nasheed confident that police probing assassination attempt, thoroughly, ” Raajje, December 1, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/110280 ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 81 ] Zunana Zalif, “ Criminal Court to sentence May 6 attack suspect on Tuesday, ” Raajje, December 12, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/110787 ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 82 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 83 ] Fathmath Zunam, “ Police release identity of 10 suspects regarding May 6 terror attack, ” The Times of Addu, July 25, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/07/25/police-release-identity-of-10-suspects-regarding-may-6-terror-attack/ ( accessed July 27, 2021).
[ 84 ] Human Rights Watch interview with [ name withheld ], [ location withheld ], June 2021.
[ 85 ] Aishath Hanaan Hussain Rasheed, “ Carefully following hearings in Yameen Rasheed's murder trial: DDCom, ” Raajje, April 23, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/98760 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 86 ] “ Yameen Rasheed murder: With convictions, DDCom restarts stalled investigation, ” Sun Online, January 23, 2022, https: //sun.com.mv/72013 ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 87 ] Ameera Osmanagic, “ Raudha’ s family refuse to accept DDCOM report, ” The Times of Addu, November 19, 2019, https: //timesofaddu.com/2019/11/19/raudhas-family-refuse-to-accept-ddcom-report/ ( accessed October 6, 2021).
[ 88 ] @ DdcomMdv, “ Mi Commission in balamungendhaa massala thakuge therein Dh. Vaanee, Blue Heavan, Hussain Zareer Maafushee Jalugai maruvi massala commission in balai ninmumah fahu emassalaagai ihumaaluvaa meehunge mahchah dhauvaa kurumah Maldives Police Service ah fonuvaifi. ” [ Of the cases being investigated by this Commission, the case involving the death on Dh. Vaanee, Blue Heavan, Hussain Zareer in Maafushi Prison has been concluded and has been forwarded to the Maldives Police Service for prosecution against those involved ], Twitter, July 31, 2019, 12:25 a.m., https: //twitter.com/DdcomMdv/status/1156420713957355521? s=20, ( accessed October 6, 2021).
[ 89 ] “ Irfan arrested following appeal by the DDCOM for information on his whereabouts, ” Addulive, October 26, 2019, https: //www.addulive.com/166211 ( accessed October 6, 2021).
[ 90 ] @ DdcomMdv, “ 3 bai aharu vee iru dhaulathuge muassasaa thakah meenaa vanee nuhoadhifa eve. Immigration in bunanee 2015 ga meena rajjein beyrah dhiya fahun naanna kamah. Namaves 2016 June ga murder scene egga meena huttaa cctv footage in feney. Veema mikamuga aanmunge eheetherikamah edhemeve. ” [ The state has failed to locate this person for three and a half years. According to Maldives Immigration, he has not returned to the country since 2015. However, he was seen on CCTV footage at a murder scene in 2016. We therefore request the public’ s help in this matter. ], Twitter, October 25, 2019, 1:44 a.m., https: //twitter.com/DdcomMdv/status/1187605785137704960? s=20 ( accessed October 6, 2021).
[ 91 ] “ Gangs ‘ nominate’ criminal court judges, ” Maldives Independent, December 31, 2018, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/gangs-nominate-criminal-court-judges-143319 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 92 ] Aliya Ifthikhar, “ Maldives commission renews hope of justice for Rilwan and Rasheed, ” CPJ, March 18, 2019, https: //cpj.org/2019/03/maldives-commission-justice-rilwan-rasheed-blogger-murder/ ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 93 ] Mohamed Azheem, “ The report on the Rilwan case presented to PG leaders yesterday has been withdrawn, ” Vaguthu, September 3, 2019, https: //vaguthu.mv/news/228270 ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 94 ] People’ s Majlis, “ Summary Report on the Disapearance of Ahmed Rilwan, ” https: //majlis.gov.mv/storage/action files/341/2Na4UKzzREIlDCVfGHBRFrlq7z7fsxfFC0lDHixC.pdf ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 95 ] “ Dr Afrasheem killed by ‘ jihadi group’ linked to al-Qaeda, ” Maldives Independent, November 17, 2019,
https: //maldivesindependent.com/crime-2/dr-afrasheem-killed-by-jihadi-group-linked-to-al-qaeda-149248 ( accessed March 31, 2022); “ Rilwan killed by Maldives group linked to al-Qaeda, presidential commission reveals, ” Maldives Independent, September 1, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/crime-2/rilwan-killed-by-maldives-group-linked-to-al-qaeda-presidential-commission-reveals-147705 ( accessed March 23, 2022).
[ 96 ] Fathimath Aruma Hussain, “ DDCom: We have not halted our investigations, ”, Sun Online, June 22, 2020, https: //en.sun.mv/61247 ( accessed November 1, 2021).
[ 97 ] “ Pres Commission on deaths will not be dissolved before cases are solved, ” Avas, June 24, 2020, https: //avas.mv/en/84704 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 98 ] See Appendix III.
[ 99 ] Ibid.
[ 100 ] Ibid.
[ 101 ] Ibid.
[ 102 ] Ahmed Rilwan, “ Humam sentenced to death for murder of Dr Afrasheem, ” Minivan News Archive, January 16, 2014, https: //minivannewsarchive.com/politics/human-sentenced-to-death-for-murder-of-dr-afrasheem-75319 ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 103 ] “ Family of Afrasheem murder convict call for inquiry against judge, ” Maldives Independent, March 8, 2016, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/family-of-afrasheem-murder-convict-call-for-inquiry-against-judge-122636 ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 104 ] International Federation for Human Rights, “ Death penalty: The Maldives turns its back on history and children's rights, ” May 21, 2014, https: //www.refworld.org/docid/5391b74024.html ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 105 ] Mohamed Visham, “ Maldives parliamentary committee asked to halt death penalty for MP killer, ” The Edition, June 27, 2016, https: //edition.mv/news/246 ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 106 ] Commission on Deaths and Disappearances ( DDCom), “ Dr Afrasheem Ali’ s Murder Investigation Report, ” November 7, 2019, https: //t.co/QjsSxBJOQp? amp=1 ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 107 ] Fathimath Aruma Hussain, “ Afrasheem murder: Shaheem accused of providing false testimony to DDcom, ” Sun Online, November 17, 2019, https: //en.sun.mv/56625 ( accessed July 7, 2021).
[ 108 ] Ahmedulla Abdul Hadi, “ Dr. Afrasheem's murder: Important pieces of evidence missing, ” Sun Online, November 18, 2019, https: //en.sun.mv/56644 ( accessed July 8, 2021).
[ 109 ] People’ s Majlis, “ Summary Report on the Disappearance of Ahmed Rilwan, https: //majlis.gov.mv/storage/action files/341/2Na4UKzzREIlDCVfGHBRFrlq7z7fsxfFC0lDHixC.pdf ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 110 ] Ibid.
[ 111 ] “ Adeeb “ saddened ” at PPM colleague’ s attempts to link him with missing journalist, ” Findmoyameeha, November 1, 2014, https: //findmoyameehaa.com/2014/11/adeeb-saddened-at-ppm-colleagues-attempts-to-link-him-with-missing-journalist/ ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 112 ] People’ s Majlis, “ Summary Report on the Disappearance of Ahmed Rilwan, https: //majlis.gov.mv/storage/action files/341/2Na4UKzzREIlDCVfGHBRFrlq7z7fsxfFC0lDHixC.pdf ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 113 ] President Yameen had called for an investigation into how Azlif Rauf, a key suspect in two major crimes, was allowed to leave the country, claiming that the defense minister under whose portfolio the department of immigration falls under – a position which at the time was temporarily held by Adeeb as the defense minister was on leave – must be held accountable. “ Afrasheem murder suspect’ s departure to Syria under investigation, ” Maldives Independent, July 19, 2015, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/afrasheem-murder-suspects-departure-to-syria-under-investigation-101062 ( accessed July 5, 2021).
[ 114 ] The NIC is an independent body that is mandated with investigating police ( also customs) misconduct. Shahudha Mohamed, “ NIC claims ‘ No Police negligence’ in Rilwan's case, ” The Edition, September 19, 2019, https: //edition.mv/news/12482 ( accessed July 5, 2021).
[ 115 ] The DDCom claimed that a high court judge and two police officers had conspired to produce a false passport and fabricate evidence to make it seem like Rilwan had led the Maldives in 2014. People’ s Majlis, “ Summary Report on the Disapearance of Ahmed Rilwan, ” https: //majlis.gov.mv/storage/action files/341/2Na4UKzzREIlDCVfGHBRFrlq7z7fsxfFC0lDHixC.pdf ( accessed July 6, 2021). Zunana Zalif, “ High Court Judge involved in forged documents connected to Rilwan's death, resigns, ” Raajje, July 21, 2020, https: //raajje.mv/82871, ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 116 ] Ahmed Aiham, “ Evidence regarding Rilwan's disappearance missing: Home Minister, ” The Edition, October 21, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/19883 ( accessed July 5, 2021).
[ 117 ] Zaheena Rasheed, “ Missing Maldives journalist killed by al-Qaeda affiliate, ” Al Jazeera, September 2, 2019, https: //www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/9/2/missing-maldives-journalist-killed-by-al-qaeda-affiliate ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 118 ] Ahmed Aiham, “ Evidence regarding Rilwan's disappearance missing: Home Minister, ” The Edition, October 21, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/19883 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 119 ] Shahudha Mohamed, “ State hires foreign investigator for Rilwan’ s case, ” The Edition, November 23, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/20159 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 120 ] Aishath Hanaan Hussain Rasheed, “ Will resolve case of Rilwan's murder, release report by year-end: President, ” Raajje, March 8, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/96444 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 121 ] Commission on Disappearances and Deaths, video clip of reenactment prepared by the DDCom in relation to the disappearance of M. Shining Star Ahmed Rilwan Abdullah, Facebook, https: //www.facebook.com/DdcomMdv/videos/318274436611693 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 122 ] Zunana Zalif, “ Ex-president'silent ' during DDCom interrogation over journalist's murder, ” Raajje, August 4, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/104287 ( accessed August 6, 2021).
[ 123 ] Shahudha Mohamed, “ Rilwan's family releases book to mark 6 years since journalist's enforced disappearance, ” The Edition, August 08, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/18352 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 124 ] “ Yameen Rasheed: Timeline of a murder, ” Maldives Independent, April 20, 2018, https: //maldivesindependent.com/feature-comment/yameen-rasheed-timeline-of-a-murder-137587 ( accessed July 6, 2021).
[ 125 ] Aisha Rasheed, “ No end in sight, ” Himal South Asian, May 4, 2021, https: //www.himalmag.com/no-end-in-sight-yameen-rasheed-maldives-2021/ ( accessed July 8, 2021).
[ 126 ] Aishath Hanaan Hussain Rasheed, “ Carefully following hearings in Yameen Rasheed's murder trial: DDCom, ” Raajje, April 23, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/98760 ( accessed July 6, 2021). The same month, two NGOs, the Maldivian Democracy Network and FORUM-ASIA, wrote an open letter to the People’ s Majlis, raising concerns that the DDCom had halted the investigations upon objections from the Prosecutor General. Maldivian Democracy Network, “ [ Open Letter ] Joint open letter to the Maldives Speaker of The People’ s Majlis: Call for justice for murdered human rights defender and blogger Yameen Rasheed, ” Forum Asia, Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development, April 23, 2021, https: //www.forum-asia.org/? p=34612 ( accessed July 8, 2021).
[ 127 ] “ Yameen Rasheed murder: With convictions, DDCom restarts stalled investigation, ” Sun Online, January 23, 2022, https: //sun.com.mv/72013 ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 128 ] Aisha Rasheed also observed that the prosecutors had been careless in forgetting important dates or not bringing key pieces of documents to the court. She noted that the defense team comprised more experienced and prominent lawyers, who she believed were able to intimidate the prosecution’ s more junior lawyers. Human Rights Watch phone interview with Aisha Rasheed, June 16, 2021.
[ 129 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Aisha Rasheed, February 14, 2022.
[ 130 ] In acknowledgment of these changes, the Maldives climbed 48 places on Reporters Without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index, to 72 in 2021 from 120 in 2018. The Maldives has a history of quashing dissent, including through arrests and setting heavy fines. Extremist interest groups with links to criminal gangs also targeted anyone seen to be challenging their conservative views. “ Maldives: Encouraging results, promises to keep, ” Reporters Without Borders, 2021, https: //rsf.org/en/maldives ( accessed March 28, 2021).
[ 131 ] Human Rights Watch interview with Zaheena Rasheed, Malé, March 27, 2021.
[ 132 ] Human Rights Watch, An All -Out Assault on Democracy, ( New York: Human Rights Watch, 2018), https: //www.hrw.org/report/2018/08/16/all-out-assault-democracy/crushing-dissent-maldives.
[ 133 ] Human Rights Watch, World Report 2019, ( New York: Human Rights Watch, 2019), Maldives chapter, https: //www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/world report download/hrw world report 2019.pdf.
[ 134 ] Humaam Ali, “ Solih vows to nullify anti-defamation act within 100 days of his administration, ” Raajje, October 22, 2018, https: //raajje.mv/42971 ( accessed March 28, 2021).
[ 135 ] Rae Munavvar, “ Parliament green-lights motion to repeal contentious Defamation Act, ” The Edition, November 14, 2018, https: //edition.mv/news/7871 ( accessed March 28, 2021).
[ 136 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Moosa Latheef, April 4, 2021.
[ 137 ] CIVICUS, “ Restrictions and Attacks on Journalists, Protestors: Reprisals Against Activists in The Maldives, ” November 10, 2021, https: //monitor.civicus.org/updates/2021/10/11/restrictions-and-attacks-journalists-protesters-reprisals-against-activists-maldives/ ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 138 ] Areeba, “ Evidence bill to be amended amid concerns of provision threatening press freedom, ” Times of Addu, September 28, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/09/28/evidence-bill-to-be-amended-amid-concerns-of-provision-threatening-press-freedom/ ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 139 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 140 ] Maldives Journalists Association, “ Chasing Justice Maldives: Study on Impunity for Crimes against Journalists, ” August 2021, https: //samsn.ifj.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Maldives LR A4 2021-final.pdf ( accessed January 10, 2022).
[ 141 ] Reporters Without Borders, “ Maldives, ” 2021https: //rsf.org/en/maldives ( accessed April 2, 2021).
[ 142 ] @ MvRiseUp, “ Once again, Maldives Police has enforced brutality towards local journalists covering a protest. We strongly condemn the incessant abuse and inhumanity practised by Police towards reporters who were simply performing their duties. ” Twitter, September 19, 2021, 2:48 p.m., https: //twitter.com/MvRiseUp/status/1439662769595244547? s=20 ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 143 ] CIVICUS, “ Restrictions and Attacks on Journalists, Protesters: Reprisals Against Activists in the Maldives, ” October 11, 2021, https: //monitor.civicus.org/updates/2021/10/11/restrictions-and-attacks-journalists-protesters-reprisals-against-activists-maldives/ ( accessed January 12, 2022).
[ 144 ] International Federation of Journalists, “ Maldives: Channel 13 media workers harassed during opposition-led protest, ” February 23, 2021, https: //www.ifj.org/media-centre/news/detail/category/press-releases/article/maldives-channel-13-media-workers-harassed-during-opposition-led-protest.html ( accessed March 29, 2021).
[ 145 ] Mohamed Fathih Abdul Muhsin, “ Journalist arrested by mistake: Police, ” The Times of Addu, February 20, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/02/20/journalist-arrested-by-mistake-police/ ( accessed March 29, 2021)
[ 146 ] “ Social media activist arrested for ‘ inciting hatred’, ” Maldives Independent, July 30, 2016, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/social-media-activist-arrested-for-inciting-hatred-125764 ( accessed March 30, 2021).
[ 147 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Aiman Latheef, February 23, 2021.
[ 148 ] Written response by the President’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, April 22, 2021. See Appendix II.
[ 149 ] Information provided by the Maldives Attorney General’ s Office to Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2022. See Appendix IV.
[ 150 ] “ Maldives top court quashes death by stoning verdict for adultery, ” Maldives Independent, January 7, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/crime-2/maldives-top-court-quashes-death-by-stoning-verdict-for-adultery-143374 ( accessed April 2, 2021).
[ 151 ] “ College vandalized after protest against chairman accused of insulting Islam, ” Maldives Independent, January 22, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/college-vandalised-after-protest-against-chairman-accused-of-insulting-islam-143534 ( accessed April 2, 2021).
[ 152 ] Human Rights Watch interview with Ali Anim, Addu City, April 8, 2021.
[ 153 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Mohamed Usam, April 4, 2021.
[ 154 ] “ MP Hisaan submits bill to criminalize calling Muslims ‘ kafir’, ” Sun Online, May 31, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/67024 ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 155 ] “ Jamiyyath Salaf urges people to raise concerns regarding hate crime bill with parliamentarians, ” Sun Online, June 28, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/67456 ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 156 ] N Sathiya Moorthy, “ Maldives: How in the name of Islam, hate crime bill is being made into a hate object, ” Observer Research Foundation, June 25, 2021, https: //www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/maldives-how-in-the-name-of-islam-hate-crime-bill-is-being-made-into-a-hate-object/ ( accessed September 2, 2021).
[ 157 ] “ Hate crime bill sent back to parliamentary committee, ” Sun Online, July 28, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/67672 ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 158 ] Marwaan Macan-Markar, “ Hate crime bill widens Islamic divisions in the Maldives, ” Nikkei Asia, July 22, 2021, https: //asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Hate-crime-bill-widens-Islamic-divisions-in-the-Maldives ( accessed September 2, 2021).
[ 159 ] When it was brought before the parliament’ s judiciary committee, the draft included provisions permitting the use of the word laadheenee against a person who has expressly committed an act or uttered words of kufr ( blasphemy). “ Hate crime bill sent back to parliamentary committee, ” Sun Online, July 28, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/67672 ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 160 ] Naizak Mohamed, “ Additional amendments proposed to the hate crime bill sent to Judiciary Committee, ” Sun Online, September 08, 2021, https: //en.sun.mv/68968 ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 161 ] Giriraj Bhattacharjee, “ Maldives: Islamist Threat – Analysis, ” Eurasia Review, January 18, 2022, https: //www.eurasiareview.com/18012022-maldives-islamist-threat-analysis/, ( accessed January 26, 2022).
[ 162 ] Human Rights Watch Interview with Ahid Rasheed, [ location withheld ], February 25, 2021.
[ 163 ] @ MoEdumv, “ 'Promoting Resilience in the Maldives ' project MoU signed between the Ministry of Education and
@ TransparencyMV. The project is funded by @ USAID. ” Twitter, August 18, 2021, 4:29 a.m., https: //twitter.com/MoEdumv/status/1427910531508178953 ( accessed September 4, 2021);
@ MuhARazzaq, “ # bantransparency # saveourkids ” Twitter, August 27, 2021, 6:05 a.m.m, https: //twitter.com/MuhARazzaq/status/1431196078330703875? s=20 ( accessed September 4, 2021)
[ 164 ] Adam Nishan bin Ali Adam, “ Making the education system laadheenee, ” live audio feed, Clubhouse, August 23, 2021.
[ 165 ] “ Salaf requests the Education-Transparency MoU to be shared with the organization, ” Avas, August 23, 2021. https: //avas.mv/105627 ( accessed September 5, 2021).
[ 166 ] Ministry of Education, “ Memorandum of Understanding between Transparency Maldives and Ministry of Education, ” https: //www.moe.gov.mv/assets/upload/MOU.pdf ( accessed September 12, 2021).
[ 167 ] Ibid.
[ 168 ] Human Rights Watch interview with [ name withheld ], [ location withheld ], February 2021.
[ 169 ] Maldivian Democracy Network, “ Our History, ” [ n.d. ], https: //mvdemocracy.org/our-history/ ( accessed February 25, 2021)
[ 170 ] Ibid.
[ 171 ] Amnesty International, Maldives: Shrinking Space for Civil and Political Rights, 2015, https: //www.amnesty.be/IMG/pdf/maldives 23 avril eng.pdf ( accessed February 23, 2021); Human Rights Watch, An All -Out Assault on Democracy, ( New York: Human Rights Watch 2018), https: //www.hrw.org/report/2018/08/16/all-out-assault-democracy/crushing-dissent-maldives.
[ 172 ] Maldivian Democracy Network, “ Preliminary Assessment of Radicalization in the Maldives, ” 2016, https: //www.docdroid.net/qyCy9gk/preliminary-assessment-of-radicalisation-in-the-maldives-final80856731625919353631-pdf ( accessed February 23, 2021).
[ 173 ] Mushfiq Mohamed, “ The Dangers of Dog-Whistling to Extremists in the Maldives, ” The Diplomat, June 27, 2020. https: //thediplomat.com/2020/06/the-dangers-of-dog-whistling-to-extremists-in-the-maldives/ ( accessed March 10, 2021).
[ 174 ] “ Opposition warns of ‘ popular uprising’ as ban MDN protests continue, ” Maldives Independent, October 27, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/opposition-warns-of-popular-uprising-as-ban-mdn-protests-continue-148794 ( accessed March 2, 2021).
[ 175 ] “ Press Statement: 9th October 2019, ” Maldivian Democracy Network, October 09, 2019, https: //mvdemocracy.org/press-release-english/ ( accessed February 23, 2021).
[ 176 ] Frontline Defenders, “ Maldivian Democracy Network Formally Banned, ” December 19, 2019, https: //www.frontlinedefenders.org/en/case/maldivian-democracy-network-formally-banned ( accessed February 17, 2022).
[ 177 ] Human Rights Watch interviews with government officials [ names withheld ], Malé, December 2, 2019.
[ 178 ] “ Opposition warns of ‘ popular uprising’ as ban MDN protests continue, ” Maldives Independent, October 27, 2019, https: //maldivesindependent.com/politics/opposition-warns-of-popular-uprising-as-ban-mdn-protests-continue-148794 ( accessed March 2, 2021).
[ 179 ] For more on the law, see US Department of State, “ Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: Maldives, ” https: //www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2019/maldives/ ( accessed March 5, 2021).
[ 180 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Shahindha Ismail, February 25, 2021.
[ 181 ] Mariyam Malsa, “ Usham Slams Rejection of Amendment Assuring Freedom of Assembly, '' The Edition, November 26, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/20595 ( accessed May 9, 2021).
[ 182 ] Areeba, “ Civil Court upholds Maldives Police Service’ s decision to fire Aishath Rasheed for participating in ‘ Suvaalu’ March, ” Times of Addu,
December 12, 2021, https: //timesofaddu.com/2021/12/12/civil-court-upholds-maldives-police-services-decision-to-fire-aishath-rasheed-for-participating-in-suvaalu-march/ ( accessed March 31, 2022).
[ 183 ] Aishath Hanaan Hussain Rasheed, “ Police Under Fire for Excessive use of Force at Labour Day Protest, ” Raajje, May 02, 2021, https: //raajje.mv/99253 ( accessed May 9, 2021).
[ 184 ] @ RSF inter, # Maldives🇲🇻:
@ RSF inter firmly condemns the police's excessive use of violence against journalists at the end of Saturday's # LabourDay protests, and joins @ mjamaldives in asking Pdt @ ibusolih to ensure a safe working environment for reporters in the field. ” Twitter, May 3, 2021, 9:11 a.m., https: //twitter.com/RSF inter/status/1389205901165334528? s=20 ( accessed march 31, 2022).
[ 185 ] @ MvRiseUp, “ RiseUp was protesting peacefully for workers rights when the Police attacked us and used force against our protestors. We will not tolerate such brutality from the Police and we call upon @ M Hameedh to investigate this matter and to free @ Nuha Adam Manik. ” Twitter, May 1, 2021, 2:03 p.m., https: //twitter.com/MvRiseUp/status/1388554769908699143 ( accessed May 9, 2021).
[ 186 ] @ hrcmv, “ އެއްވެ އުޅުމުގެ މިނިވަންކަމަކީ ކޮންމެ ރައްޔިތަކަށްވެސް ލިބިގެންވާ ހައްގަކަށްވާއިރު މި ހައްގުގެ ބޭނުން ކުރެވޭނެ ފުރުސަތު ކޮންމެ ރައްޔިތަކަށްވެސް ލިބެންޖެހެއެވެ. ރޭގެ މި ހާދިސާއާއި ގުޅިގެން އެންޓި-ޓޯޗަރ ޤާނޫނުގެ ދަށުން މި މައްސަލަ ކޮމިޝަނުން ބަލަމުންދާނެވާހަކަ ދަންނަވަމެވެ. ” [ Freedom of assembly is a right that is granted to all citizens and all citizens should have the opportunity to exercise this right. In relation to last night’ s incident, we will be investigating the case under the Anti-Torture Act ], Twitter, May 2, 2021, 5:06 p.m., https: //twitter.com/hrcmv/status/1388781823971389440 ( accessed May 09, 2021).
[ 187 ] Mariyam Nima Hassan, “ Investigation into the excessive use of force by the police during last night’ s protest, ” Jazeera, May 2, 2021, https: //jazeera.mv/88140/ ( accessed May 9, 2021).
[ 188 ] Zunana Zalif, “ 30 Opposition Protesters Fined and Released from Custody, ” Raajje, February 27, 2021. https: //raajje.mv/95998 ( accessed May 9, 2021).
[ 189 ] Human Rights Watch phone interview with Adam Shareef, March 1, 2021.
[ 190 ] “ Maldives: Migrants Arrested for Protesting Abuses, ” Human Rights Watch news release, July 24, 2020, https: //www.hrw.org/news/2020/07/24/maldives-migrants-arrested-protesting-abuses.
[ 191 ] “ No gatherings without prior written approval: Ministry of Home Affairs, ” The Edition, July 14, 2020, https: //edition.mv/news/17879 ( accessed January 26, 2022); “ Maldives: Free Speech, Assembly Under Threat, ” Human Rights Watch news release, July 14, 2020,
https: //www.hrw.org/news/2020/07/14/maldives-free-speech-assembly-under-threat.
[ 192 ] Human Rights Watch phone Interview with Ahmed Mohamed, February 27, 2020.
[ 193 ] Human Rights Watch phone Interview with Ikleela Hameed, February 27, 2020.
[ 194 ] Ibid. | general |
IPhone City Staff in China to Undergo Mandatory Virus Testing | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Workers on Foxconn Technology Group’ s iPhone 5 production lines at the company’ s plant in Zhengzhou, China, went on strike yesterday, advocacy group China Labor Watch said in a press release., Debby Wu
( Bloomberg) -- Tens of thousands of staff at China’ s main iPhone manufacturing base will have to go undergo mandatory Covid-testing on Thursday, a potential risk to global supply of Apple Inc.’ s signature device.
Local authorities in Zhengzhou, where Foxconn Technology Group operates its main iPhone-making complex, ordered compulsory testing for areas that include the plant and adjacent parts of the city. Foxconn representatives didn’ t have immediate comment.
The mass-testing exercise represents a risk because Chinese officials have been quick to lock down areas in the event of positive tests. This week, more than 30 Taiwanese companies including iPhone assembler Pegatron Corp. and Apple laptop maker Quanta Computer Inc. have now halted production in the electronics hubs of eastern China to comply with local Covid-related restrictions, spelling more trouble for an already fragile global tech supply chain.
President Xi Jinping has championed a zero-tolerance approach to Covid that includes rapid lockdowns if even a small number of people test positive. His administration has held firm, even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic costs mount.
“ Prevention and control work can not be relaxed, ” Xi said during a trip to the island province of Hainan, the official Xinhua News Agency reported late Wednesday, the same day Shanghai saw a record 27,719 new cases. | general |
road.cc goes to Paris-Roubaix: What do you want to see? | Like this site? Help us to make it better.
It isn’ t often these days that you’ ll find us at an actual bike race, but seeing as Polartec invited us to ride the cobbles and watch both of the weekend’ s races, we couldn’ t really say no…
The plan, as we understand it, is to ride some of the famous pavé sectors on Friday, be in the centre of the Roubaix velodrome for the finish of the women’ s race on Saturday and then catch the start of the men’ s race before hopping between various sectors on Sunday. We 'll be finishing each day in the VIP zones in the centre of the velodrome.
Thrown into the mix should hopefully be a selection of very tasty Belgian beers and plenty of frites. We’ ll be looking to snap a load of pics before, during and after the race and those pics will mainly be focused on the bikes.
> Monumental tipples: the best beer and wine pairings to watch the Classics
Roubaix is one of the races in the calendar, where riders will make a host of changes to their bikes to make the cobbles bearable and we’ ll have our eyes peeled for anything interesting. In fact, there’ s already some tech that we want to see for ourselves. Team DSM will be able to adjust their tyre pressure on the fly after it was announced that they have the Scope Atmoz.
On Saturday and Sunday we’ ll also be sharing updates from down on the ground via our Twitter and Instagram pages, so make sure you’ re following both to see all of the action. We’ ll even try to catch some stuff that the TV cameras miss.
But as the schedule is quite open, we’ d like to know what you’ d like to see? Interviews with riders might be a bit tricky as Covid measures are still in place, but if there are any pro bikes in particular that you’ d like us to point a camera at, let us know.
Alternatively, you could request an everesting on one of the cobbled sectors. Maybe not. Or we could forego the bike races entirely and go on a beer tasting tour. It's just a suggestion...
Lead image courtesy of Alex Broadway/SWPix.com
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Son of a Marathon runner, Nephew of a National 24hr Champion, the racing genetics have completely passed him by. After joining the road.cc staff in 2016 as a reviewer, Liam quickly started writing feature articles and news pieces. After a little time living in Canada, where he spent most of his time eating poutine, Liam returned with the launch of DealClincher, taking over the Editor role at the start of 2018. At the weekend, Liam can be found racing on the road both in the UK and abroad, though he prefers the muddy fields of cyclocross. To date, his biggest race win is to the front of the cafe queue.
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These are obviously scroats that ride around on unregistered or nicked mopeds causing hassle and nicking motorbikes. Round our way they pull up...
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Well, my definition of a biological woman is good enough for me, and many others. It is what defines a woman. When a trans woman can have a child...
Mercedes driver crashes into Voi e-scooters... | general |
Apollo Considers IPO for Golfing Chain ClubCorp at $ 4.5 Billion Value | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Apollo Global Management Inc. is weighing an initial public offering as early as this year for ClubCorp, the country club operator it took private in 2017, according to people familiar with the matter.
The private equity firm is working with advisers on a process for the Dallas-based company, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter is private. The company could be valued at about $ 4.5 billion in an IPO, one of the people said.
Apollo paid about $ 1.1 billion for the company, excluding debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No final decision has been made and the timing or valuation of the listing could change, the people said.
A spokesperson for ClubCorp didn’ t immediately respond to a request for comment. A representative for Apollo declined to comment.
ClubCorp owns or operates more than 200 golf, country, sports and other types of clubs with more than 430,000 members, according to its website. Golf enjoyed a resurgence of interest during the coronavirus pandemic, which led to some dealmaking in the space.
Callaway Golf Co. acquired driving-range chain Topgolf Entertainment Group last year, while Sporting-goods company Vista Outdoor Inc. agreed to buy golf-simulator maker Foresight Sports.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
These Cities Saw Rents Climb During the Pandemic | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Two-year rent data showcase how the map of the U.S. economy shifted to the Sun Belt and away from expensive coastal cities and technology hubs during the pandemic.
Rents in the Miami metropolitan area rose 58% from March 2020 to March 2022, Realtor.com said in a report Thursday. They were little changed in San Francisco and San Jose, and dropped 2.3% in Buffalo, New York, the only place in the 50-city dataset that saw a decline.
Americans who could work remotely flocked to Florida cities and places like Phoenix during the pandemic, fueling inflation and a squeeze in the housing market. Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava this week allocated $ 13 million for tenant assistance and said she would convene a meeting with local officials to cope with what she called an affordability crisis.
Riverside, California, also saw a surge in rents in the Covid era. Government data released this week show that it’ s the only big metro outside of the Sun Belt where inflation has crossed the 10% threshold. | general |
Breathalyzer Test for Covid-19 Wins Approval From FDA | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A medical worker wearing personal protective equipment ( PPE) administers a Covid-19 test at a drive-thru testing site at the Alemany Farmers Market in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020. California Governor Gavin Newsom imposed a curfew on the vast majority of residents to curb coronavirus transmission, deepening measures to stop a rapid outbreak while stopping short of a full lockdown. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- A Covid-19 breathalyzer test with the ability to provide diagnostic results in three minutes has won emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the agency announced Thursday.
The test, made by Frisco, Texas-based InspectIR Systems, is authorized for those 18 and older and in settings where samples are both collected and analyzed, such as doctor’ s offices, hospitals or mobile testing sites. The device is about the size of a piece of carry-on luggage, the FDA said, and works by detecting chemical compounds in breath samples associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The agency said the test was validated in a study of 2,409 people, where it correctly identified 91.2% of positive samples and 99.3% of negative samples. It performed similarly in follow-up tests focused on the omicron variant. The breathalyzer’ s sensitivity is comparable to that of rapid antigen tests, studies show.
“ Today’ s authorization is yet another example of the rapid innovation occurring with diagnostic tests for Covid-19, ” Jeff Shuren, director of the FDA’ s Center for Devices and Radiological Health, said in the statement. The FDA is also supporting the development of more testing capabilities, he said.
The company, which focuses on portable opioid and cannabis detection tools, expects to be able to produce approximately 100 of the devices each week, which can be used to evaluate about 160 samples per day. On its website, the company says the breathalyzer is the first such device available for commercial use.
The FDA said the test can only be administered by qualified, trained operators under the supervision of health care professionals with state authorization to prescribe tests.
InspectIR Systems did not immediately respond to requests for additional information regarding the device’ s cost or the expected level of demand. | general |
Transcript: Summers Says Recession More Likely Than Soft Landing | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
U.S. President Joe Biden greets attendees after speaking at the POET Bioprocessing facility in Menlo, Iowa, U.S., on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. Biden plans to allow expanded sales of higher-ethanol gasoline in an effort to lower fuel prices and counter the political blowback from them. Photographer: Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Larry Summers is at it again. The coal mine-canary is warning of recession as the Federal Reserve tries to curb inflation without triggering a slump.
For now, economists put the chance of a recession developing over the next year at 27.5%, according to a Bloomberg survey earlier this month. Still, the downbeat call by the Harvard professor, former Treasury secretary and paid Bloomberg contributor isn’ t easily dismissed even by optimists. Summers famously cautioned that the federal government was being overly generous with its Covid-19 bailout payments earlier in the pandemic, and he dismissed the idea that inflation would be “ transitory ” well before it was fashionable.
In a wide-ranging chat with Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics and host of its Stephanomics podcast, Summers says the Biden administration could be doing much more to help ease inflation. He says the Fed should be more forthcoming in admitting what he sees as its mistakes and suggests Americans need to sacrifice more in the effort to thwart Russia’ s war on Ukraine. First, he gives some historical perspective on why he sees a recession being more likely than a soft landing.
Podcast: Summers Predicts U.S. Recession More Likely Than a Soft LandingThe below transcript has been edited for clarity.
Larry Summers: I think it’ s the most likely thing. If you look at history, there has never been a moment when inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5% when we did not have a recession within the next two years. So I think the odds on a hard landing within the next two years are certainly better than half, and quite possibly two-thirds or more. I don’ t think the idea that is still embodied in Fed forecasts, that we could have continuing super-tight labor markets at 3 1/2% unemployment, and we could have inflation come down rapidly is a terribly plausible one. That’ s a residue of team transitory.
And the key fact one has to recognize, I think, to grasp the current situation, is that wage inflation is now running above 6% on the best data, which is the Atlanta Fed indicator. And if wage inflation is running at 6%, that’ s a kind of ultimate core inflation pointing to price inflation at 4 1/2% or 5%. So I think we’ re either going to live with that for quite a while, in which case we’ ll have an even bigger recession later, or some set of events involving monetary policy and involving what happens in the real economy are going to force a hard landing. I’ m much more agnostic on how high interest rates are going to have to go to generate a hard landing and disinflation than I am on the likelihood that at the end of the day, we’ re going to see a fairly hard landing.
Stephanie Flanders: Just to dig in a little bit in terms of what you think the mechanism is going to be that will bring the U.S. into a recession. I mean, we know, and in fact was part of your argument, that the stimulus that was so large a year ago in the U.S. it left household excess savings quite high, certainly by historical standards, even in the lower half of the income distribution. Debt service from households is now at a 40 year low. They are coming into this with quite a strong position, even with the inflation that we’ re seeing. So what is the mechanism that’ s going to bring the U.S. into a recession?
Summers: I think there are two classes of mechanisms that are operative, and which one is going to get there first and their relative timing is something where I don’ t have a confident judgment. One class of mechanisms is monetary policy. I think monetary policy is going to have to keep going until we see disinflation, and we’ re not going to see disinflation back towards the target range until we see unemployment rise, meaningfully. That’ s one source of uncertainty, monetary policy, doing what it has to do. The other is the countervailing mechanisms to what you described. The fact that inflation has eroded real incomes and the value of savings. The fact that there’ s significant fragility in financial markets. The fact that mortgage rates have risen by 200 basis points in the last four months.
And, we are seeing for the first time, in many years, that lots of people are starting the mortgage process and not finishing the mortgage process. We’ re seeing evidence in certain sectors of significantly reduced traffic. So I think it’ s hard to know when, and to what extent the economy is going to turn over itself. And to what extent it is going to be induced by monetary policy. But I think the judgment that’ s hard to escape is that inflation is not going to get near reasonable levels if the economy doesn’ t at least substantially slow.
Flanders: You talk about potentially the need or necessity of unemployment to go up. Some of your critics would say we’ ve got to an amazing point in the U.S. economy in which U.S. workers have been on the back foot for so long that you have the unemployment rate at this previously unheard of 3.6%. We’ ve got reporters in Indiana where there’ s less than 1% unemployment, and workers in those places have a position of power that they haven’ t had in many years. What is wrong with having produced that situation?
Summers: Look, Stephanie, it’ s a hugely important question. The first academic work I did was on how important high-pressure labor markets were for the disadvantaged. So, I showed what was novel at that moment, that a 1% increase in the employment ratio for White men was associated with a 6% increase in the employment ratio for African American teenagers. So I yield to no one in my belief in the importance of helping the disadvantaged and in recognizing that tight labor markets do benefit those who are traditionally left behind. But there are three problems. The first is that overall, this higher inflation has gone with falling, not increasing real wages. You know, if you look at a graph of the nominal wage growth in the U.S. on one axis and real wage growth, growth in purchasing power on the other axis, it looks like a turned-over parabola.
Living standards grow most rapidly when wages are rising at 4%, and then they fall off as you start to see wage growth at 5, 6, 7, 8%. So the first thing to say is that what we’ re doing is, we’ re having lower real wage growth for the vast majority of the populations and consequences. The second is the core lesson we have learned is that there’ s not a stable trade-off between unemployment and inflation. There’ s a stable trade-off between unemployment and the acceleration of inflation. And if we run an overheated economy, it’ s not that we’ ll have to live with 4% inflation forever. It’ s that we’ ll live with steadily rising inflation and set up an ever greater price that we have to pay.
Prudent policy makers don’ t just pay attention to the current moment. They pay attention to what happens over the longer term. And the consequence of overheating is that it has to be followed by something that ultimately stabilizes things. And the history is that if you look at the overall path, the poor are worse off once you go through that whole process than they would’ ve been if you kept things stable all along. That’ s why the Fed’ s new woke rhetoric in 2021 was so dangerously misguided. And I fear that down the road, the people who they were most concerned to help with that rhetoric are going to be the victims if, as I expect, we have some kind of hard landing.
Summers: I think the Fed has to stay focused on bringing down the inflation rate and bringing down the expected inflation rate. I don’ t think there is any alternative that doesn’ t set a stage for greater pain. We can have an argument about 2% versus some number, a bit greater than two. But I think we need to recognize, think about this, frankly, in the old-fashioned way, which is less in terms of numerical targets. And, that is price stability is when people aren’ t talking all the time and focused on the overall changes in the price level. By that definition, we had about 35 years price stability between the mid eighties and 2021. And by that definition, we have lost price stability in the U.S. Inflation is now the number one economic issue. It’ s driving vast erosion in confidence in government. And the Fed has to do what’ s necessary to restore a sense of price stability. I can’ t say exactly what that means in numerical terms, but I know that we are well away from it now in the judgment of the American people. I think that’ s what’ s going to be necessary in terms of monetary policy. I welcome, particularly, the most recent speech of Chairman [ Jerome ] Powell, which I think moved a long way towards being in the right place.
I’ d like to see the Fed signal a commitment to raise interest rates until real rates are clearly positive, or until it’ s clear that price stability has been restored. And I think they’ ve moved a long way in that direction. That’ s good, if late, but I think they’ ve got some distance to go before they achieve it.
Flanders: It has become an extraordinarily salient issue, politically, inflation. I mean, President [ Joe ] Biden did it in his State of the Union. He had said this is going to be his number one goal or one one of his primary objectives in the next year and beyond, bringing down inflation. And I think some of us were left sort of scratching our heads thinking, well, hang on, what can the administration do since it’ s the Fed’ s job to be reducing inflation? What can the administration do to reduce inflation?
Summers: Look, the net effect of the things the administration talks about in terms of micropolicies to reduce inflation, this gouging talk is frivolous, non-serious and utterly ineffectual. A gas price holiday would ultimately push up prices by raising demand. The student loan relief yesterday is injecting resources into the economy at a $ 100 billion a year annual rate when the economy needs to be cooled off, not, heated up. The administration could be much more constructive than it has been with respect to energy supply. So I don’ t the administration’ s Buy America policies operate in the direction of raising prices as to various policies they pursue to raise small business. So the microeconomic policies of the administration have been a wash with respect to inflation at best.
What could they do? The Peterson Institute just release a study that I helped instigate and discussed—it’ s on their website—that estimates that a realistic program of trade liberalization could take 1.3% off the CPI. Their scope for policies to increase immigration that would take substantial pressures off the labor market. But the approaches that would work are approaches that would emphasize increasing the level of competition for American producers, not seeking to protect American producers. That’ s the, that’ s the element of microeconomic policy that has a prospect for success. And I fear that the more popular themes around corporate gouging and the like are simply diversionary,
Flanders: The Fed had one job. It has monumentally failed on that job on a consistent way for the last year and potentially into the future with this strategy. If a fund manager made that kind of bad call for such a long time, there would be pretty concrete consequences. If an elected politician made that kind of mistake, there would almost certainly be consequences. Do you think there should be greater accountability for this particular failure and for the forecasting system that produced it, but even potentially individuals?
Summers: I think the Fed should be much more visibly acknowledging that it’ s been wrong and seeking to understand and learn from its errors than have been the case. And I think the failure for there to be the some institutional review. You know, after bad battles, armies have after-action reviews. The IMF has blundered in various situations, and there’ ve been very thoughtful reviews of what in its culture and what in its mode led to those errors. And I think the Fed should be engaged in more of that. I think in fairness to the Fed, the views they were expressing were relatively close to consensus views. Not frankly this last fall, when I think they were behind the consensus and still sticking with their views. But for much of last year, their views were tracking consensus views. And so I think the soul searching is less about accountable individuals at the Fed than about how those consensus views were formed. And I guess I have been struck by a certain blitheness with which some of my friends in the economics community have kind of pivoted to addressing the current moment without thinking of about what led them to be wrong in the past.
Flanders: OK. Let’ s get onto Ukraine, Russia, and the fallout from the crisis. You were a senior Treasury official throughout those two Clinton administrations in the nineties, which were really kind of trying to think through after the end of the Cold War, how Russia was going to fit into the international economic system decisions around whether it should join the G7, all of those things. Should we be doing more to hurt Russia economically now? What’ s your take on the kind of coordinated sanctions that have been achieved and the other actions that have been taken?
Summers: I think by the standards of history and tradition, we’ ve done a great deal. By the standards of the magnitude of the problem, there’ s a lot more to do. Understand this, the ruble is now trading at the same exchange rate that it was before the war started. Russian banks are not experiencing runs. Every day, Russia is getting revenues from the export of its energy products that are comparable to, or greater than they were receiving before the war because of increased energy prices. The limitation on the sale of goods to Russia has not been nearly as comprehensive as was imposed on Iran at earlier moments. The truth is that, in a sense, and I strongly support this, using economic tools is trying to fight a war without costs in blood. That is the right thing, but in important respects, we’ ve been trying to fight an economic war without costs to households.
From the first moment when the sanctions were introduced, and as it was explained that simultaneously we were going to be doing everything we could to keep gas prices under control, I have felt that there was a moral failure. And if this is a unique and extraordinary worst threat in 75 years of naked aggression, then we need to be prepared to make sacrifices at the level of accepting higher energy prices, wearing sweaters on days with cool weather, being a little hotter when we can’ t run air conditioners as strongly as we did before, sacrificing luxury exports to Russia and sacrificing mercantile commercial interests. I do not believe that enough has been done. I believe that much more needs to be done. I was glad to see the step that was taken to stop the Russians from using their frozen reserves to pay debt, but in a way it was an extraordinary and remarkable thing that for the six previous weeks, they had been allowed to use their frozen reserves to prevent them from doing it.
So I think that we have a long way to go in raising the pressure that we impose on sanctions. And frankly, I would prefer less rhetoric about the war criminality of what’ s going on, which it seems to me does not bring pressure to produce peace. If anything, slightly the opposite by meaning that there’ s no exit strategy from this. Less emphasis on that rhetoric and much more emphasis on the imposition of economic pain. We saw in the United States in 2008 what cascading lack of confidence in finance can do to destroy the performance of an economy. It’ s extraordinarily counterintuitive for any financial person, but I think we need to engage exactly those forces as forces of destruction with respect to the Russian economy right now, recognizing that that may have some collateral implications for some few financial institutions in the West, and being prepared to provide the necessary kind of support.
But I don’ t think we have yet stepped up fully in terms of engaging the tools of financial warfare. That’ s how I see it from the outside. But what I have is an outsider’ s view, and I’ ve been an insider and I have seen outsiders with naive views, making it sound simpler than it is. And in fairness to those who are making the decisions, it may be that there are a whole set of collateral costs that they have thought through very carefully. But my instinct is that there’ s a good deal more that could be done. And I’ d like to see some long queues outside some Russian financial institutions. I’ d like to see some Russian defaults followed by the seizures of key Russian assets. And I’ d like to see the ruble in free fall as part of judging the efficacy of a sanctions program.
Flanders: You know, one of the other things that happened under your watch at the Treasury when we were working together in the late 1990s was the beginnings of the G20, which was pretty evident in the global financial crisis and the global response to that, but has been pretty absent in recent years. And certainly in response to this crisis, or indeed the inflation crisis that’ s now in cost of living crunch that’ s coming for so many countries. I wonder, do you think it’ s the end of the G20?
Summers: Look, I think the G20 had a premise. The premise of the G20 was that all countries wanted all other countries to do better, that we all gained from a more open, more rapidly growing economy, that the United States wanted China to grow faster, that China wanted the U.S. to grow faster, that we all wanted to solve global problems together. And that was the premise of the G20. And that was basically true in the 2008 financial crisis. Everybody wanted the crisis to be successfully weathered and the global economy to grow again. That is in very profound question today. Self evidently, it is not the objective of most of the other members of the G20 to support Russia’ s economic flourishing. It is a substantial question whether we are hoping for the success of the Chinese economy, and whether China is hoping for the success of our economy.
So the premise of the G20, which was a forum for devising means to shared ends is much less evidently true today. And before one talks about what you should convene a G20 meeting to do, and what kind of statement a G20 should make, it seems to me, one has to get straight these questions about which communities have which shared ends. Right now, I perceive a bit of a vacuum in clear thinking on this, with some traditionalists wanting to just kind of keep going with the G20 and have G20 do stuff. And others have what seemed to me to be rather naive, given the world we live in, conceptions of communities of democracy, which it seems to me do so much to exclude so many major stakeholders in the economic system that there’ s a real question as to whether they can be meaningfully effective.
So I think we need some serious reflection on the mechanisms of international fora and consultation. I don’ t know that we are in the right place right now, but I think it takes a kind of realism that balances sort of two cliches. One, some sharing of ends is a prerequisite to successful cooperation. And the other is you don’ t make peace with your friends. You make peace with your potential adversaries. And so I suspect we need to use the European term, some kind of variable architecture in which there are some fora where there’ s more in common among the participants, but less reach, and other fora in which there is less in common among the participants but more reach. Anyone who thinks that these descriptions and these kinds of issues.
And this is a place where I’ ve gone from naive and stupid to less naive and stupid. I used to think that serious people discuss serious things and diplomats discuss the shape of tables. And I think I’ ve now come to realize how important the shape and composition of groups could be. And anyone who doubted that proposition needs to consider how consequential the rather loose statements that were made about allowing Ukraine into NATO proved to be in terms of what they set off.
Flanders: Larry Summers, thanks very much for an excellent exchange on issues that I know will be of great interest to all the people listening in.
Elon Musk has made a “ best and final ” offer to buy Twitter, saying the company has extraordinary potential and he will unlock it.
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Stocks and government bonds were mixed as investors focus on corporate earnings and the European Central Bank’ s meeting later on Thursday for cues on the path of monetary policy.
Oil declined after a two-day rally that pushed prices back above US $ 100 a barrel as investors digested a raft of factors including the continuing fallout from Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine and China’ s latest round of virus lockdowns. | general |
Morgan Stanley Traders Top Estimates as Market Volatility Surges | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley traders blew past analysts’ estimates as Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine increased market volatility in the first three months of the year.
The company’ s trading operation posted $ 6.1 billion in revenue, an increase from a year earlier after analysts had expected a 19% decline in the first quarter. The best results were in the equities business, which posted a 10% gain after a big hit from the Archegos Capital Management scandal a year earlier, according to a statement Thursday.
Wild market moves spurred by the war in Ukraine, soaring interest rates and supply-chain logjams have made it harder for investors to predict how bank trading desks would fare at the beginning of the year. That same volatility, meanwhile, has caused the firms’ dealmaking operations to sputter. The relative strength in Morgan Stanley’ s trading business follows a surprise at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which announced trading revenue in both fixed income and equities that beat analysts’ estimates.
“ It was a very strong quarter amid the volatility and uncertainty, ” Morgan Stanley Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said in an interview. “ Another proof point that we are doing what we need to do. Our margins will only be supported as interest rates rise. ”
Dealmakers at New York-based Morgan Stanley and its rivals benefited from a surge in mergers and acquisitions until the boom came to an abrupt halt. Investment-banking revenue totaled $ 1.63 billion in the first quarter, falling short of the average estimate of $ 1.8 billion and down from $ 2.61 billion a year ago. Billionaire Elon Musk said Thursday that he hired Morgan Stanley as his adviser on a takeover bid for Twitter Inc.
Morgan Stanley shares dropped 11% in the first quarter, their worst decline since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. The stock rose 2% to $ 85.85 at 7:39 a.m. in early New York trading.
Wealth management -- a business that Morgan Stanley expects to deliver higher net-interest income this year amid rising rates -- reported revenue of $ 5.94 billion in the first quarter. The unit is less volatile than the institutional-securities business that’ s home to Morgan Stanley’ s traders and dealmakers.
“ Rising interest rates will obviously be positive in NII in the wealth-management business, ” Yeshaya said. In January, the bank had forecast an additional $ 500 million in net interest income from the business this year. That estimate has now been revised higher, Yeshaya said.
The bank’ s investment-management arm posted $ 1.34 billion in revenue. The year-earlier results didn’ t include revenue from Eaton Vance Corp. for the full quarter, with Morgan Stanley completing its purchase of the firm in March 2021.
Morgan Stanley in January raised its target for return on tangible common equity, saying it now expects the metric to reach more than 20% over the long term, lifting it from a previous target of 17%.
In February, Morgan Stanley disclosed U.S. regulators and prosecutors are investigating various aspects of its block-trading business, acknowledging the firm itself is under scrutiny as authorities dig into how Wall Street bankers and money managers carry out stock transactions big enough to move prices.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
China’ s Central Bank Vows to Use Policy Tools, Including RRR | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Nearly-empty roads during a lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. China hasn't budged in its opposition to living with the virus even in the midst of the country's worst outbreak, but its leaders are now pursuing an easier containment strategy in the uphill battle to tame the hyper-infectious coronavirus. Photogorapher: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- The People’ s Bank of China will use its policy toolbox flexibly as it aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the economy, a senior central bank official said, adding hundreds of billions of yuan will be earmarked for two new structural lending programs.
“ Downward pressure on the economy has increased currently, ” Sun Guofeng, head of the monetary policy department, said at a briefing Thursday. “ We will use monetary policy tools including reserve requirement ratio reduction at the proper time ” and keep liquidity “ reasonably ample, ” he said, referring to the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve.
Sun’ s comments came a day after the State Council, China’ s cabinet, pledged to cut the RRR when needed and give greater financial support for industries and small firms hit hard by the pandemic.
Covid controls across China, including an extended lockdown of Shanghai, have disrupted production and supply chains, while exacerbating pressure on already-weak consumer spending. Coupled with a persistent slump in the property market, it’ s becoming increasingly challenging for the government to achieve its target of around 5.5% growth this year.
The PBOC is expected to cut a key policy interest rate -- the rate on the one-year medium-term lending facility -- for the second time this year on Friday, and reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratio within days to shore up the economy hit by Covid lockdowns.
Sun said the central bank will speed up the creation of two new relending programs that provide funding to banks for lending on to technology businesses and the elderly care sector. The PBOC is seeking to “ make good use ” of both structural and aggregate policies, he said.
A total of 200 billion yuan ( $ 31.4 billion) in the tech relending program will be available at a rate of 1.75%, Sun said. The funds will be relent to cover 60% of the principal of loans with at least six-month maturity that 21 national lenders would have granted to high-tech, innovative and leading manufacturing firms, he said.
The PBOC will also provide 40 billion yuan in quota for the relending program to encourage credit for elderly care institutions, which will be carried out on a trial basis in the five provinces of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Jiangxi, Sun said. The cost of the loans will also be set at 1.75%, he added, compared with the 2.85% rate on the one-year medium-term lending facility.
Sun Tianqi, head of the PBOC’ s financial stability bureau, said at the same briefing that the newly created financial stability fund will be used to replenish shortages in dealing with financial risks. The fund was first mentioned by Premier Li Keqiang last month.
The PBOC started to ease monetary policy from late 2021 to counter the economic headwinds, while other major central banks including the Federal Reserve have hiked interest rates to contain runaway inflation. The policy divergence wiped out China’ s yield premium over U.S. Treasuries, adding to capital outflow pressures and threatening the Chinese currency.
Sun Guofeng said China will focus on domestic conditions while setting the pace and magnitude of its monetary policy, closely monitor changes in the overseas environment and handle any “ external shocks ” accordingly.
Elon Musk has made a “ best and final ” offer to buy Twitter, saying the company has extraordinary potential and he will unlock it.
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Stocks and government bonds were mixed as investors focus on corporate earnings and the European Central Bank’ s meeting later on Thursday for cues on the path of monetary policy.
Oil declined after a two-day rally that pushed prices back above US $ 100 a barrel as investors digested a raft of factors including the continuing fallout from Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine and China’ s latest round of virus lockdowns. | general |
Crypto Revolution Spurs Central Banks to Design Money’ s Future | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg Markets) -- When the U.S. and its allies decided to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, they used their power over the global financial system to isolate the nation, crippling its economy and crushing the value of the ruble. But what if, in the future, countries don’ t need those U.S.-dominated payment networks?
That’ s one of the big questions also being asked now about China’ s digital yuan and the European Central Bank’ s plans for a digital euro, just two of the many so-called central bank digital currencies ( CBDCs) that are being tested or studied around the world. CBDCs have emerged amid the rise of thousands of cryptocurrencies, which are quickly disrupting traditional payment systems and pushing central bankers to innovate to compete.
It’ s not the first time. Consumers and businesses used to transact in numerous privately issued banknotes until central banks ended the chaos by monopolizing currency issuance in the 19th and early 20th century. Today, policymakers face a similar challenge of trying to maintain their footprint in global money supply.
CBDCs aim to make payment systems safer, faster, cheaper, and more reliable. Digital money also can give governments in poor nations an alternative to underdeveloped banking systems or help authorities provide lifesaving funds to citizens quickly during a crisis.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that about 100 countries have either rolled out CBDCs or are considering them. The U.S. is among those with a project that’ s still on the drawing board, though an executive order by President Joe Biden in March sought to prioritize the study of a digital dollar.
But isn’ t money already digital? For most of us, our savings or debts are just numbers on a computer or smartphone screen. We perform most transactions without ever touching paper currency or coins.
CBDCs are different in one important respect. The traditional dollars or euros or yuan on our screen today are actually the liabilities of a commercial bank or other financial institution, which makes them vulnerable to that company’ s financial health as well as to actions taken by governments. But CBDCs, like physical cash, are direct liabilities of the central bank. In theory, a CBDC would allow a central bank to transfer currency directly to the digital wallet of an individual, corporation, or other counterparty without needing any other bank or intermediary. In practice, most central banks aren’ t willing to cut out the private financial sector completely.
As with most innovations, there are pluses and minuses. Governments will be able to track the movement of central bank digital currencies easily. That will help policymakers better understand how the economy is functioning. But it could also help in the surveillance of citizens. And given the enormous impact that CBDCs could have on economies, they have to work flawlessly if they’ re to be trusted. In their early days, that hasn’ t always been the case.
Some of the most-motivated nations are smaller, less-developed countries that aren’ t worried about sanctions—they’ re just trying to solve real-world problems for their people. Those issues include the high number of citizens without bank accounts, the costly system for sending money around the world, and even simple geographic isolation. For example, Palau, a cluster of tiny islands in the Pacific that use the U.S. dollar, sometimes runs out of pennies, so merchants have been known to give out pieces of candy as change instead.
What follows is a closer look at six key projects that are up and running, being tested in pilot programs, or close to being rolled out.
CHINA: Digital Yuan ( e-CNY) STATUS: In testing since 2020USERS: 140 million people, more than 1.5 million merchants
Although the digital yuan is still in the pilot phase, the numbers are staggering: The virtual currency has been tested in about a dozen regions since 2020, with the number of individual users surging by late last year to 140 million, or about one-tenth of the population. More than 1.5 million merchants accept it, according to official data. China hasn’ t officially set a timeline for a national rollout, but more cities are expected to join the trial.
The central bank adopted a two-tier system for the digital yuan, officially known as the e-CNY. The People’ s Bank of China first issues e-CNY to commercial banks, which then distribute it to the public. In trials, banks have become partners with merchants, promoting use by handing out free digital cash and consumption vouchers and offering discounts on purchases in digital yuan. China tested the e-CNY during the Winter Olympics in Beijing, though the scope was limited because the games were open to only a small domestic audience because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite making the fastest progress on a digital currency among major economies, China is taking a measured approach in its promotion of the e-CNY. It faces overseas scrutiny and criticism over the possibility that the government may track users’ transactions. Domestically, it also needs to overcome challenges posed by WeChat Pay and Alipay, mobile-payment platforms operated by the nation’ s tech giants that the vast majority of the public relies on for day-to-day transactions. Officials from the PBOC said e-CNY wallets would actually collect less transaction information than private platforms.
Although some U.S. lawmakers worry that the digital yuan could be used to help a nation like Russia avoid sanctions, officials from the PBOC have stressed that the e-CNY is meant primarily for domestic retail transactions. The goal is to allow more people in rural areas to enjoy digital payments while providing a backup to private platforms and making the payment system more efficient.
In 2018, European banks faced a dilemma. U.S. President Donald Trump’ s administration had reinstated sanctions on Iran against the wishes of European governments. One by one, Europe’ s banks pulled the plug on payments linked to trade with the country, defying the wishes of their own governments in an effort to comply with U.S. sanctions. European governments imposed a blocking rule against Trump’ s “ secondary sanctions, ” which pressured banks into not cooperating with them, and tried to create a special-purpose vehicle for payments. Still, thousands of businesses were ultimately forced to cut ties with Iran.
The episode showed the leverage that Washington can wield over banks almost anywhere in the world. The European Central Bank took note. Concern over the sovereignty of the euro zone’ s payment infrastructure was a key reason it began to accelerate efforts to introduce a digital euro when the Covid pandemic struck about a year and a half later.
“ We have a responsibility to ensure that our citizens have choice and can not be excluded from the payments ecosystem due to the unilateral actions of others, ” ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a September 2020 speech. A digital euro would “ ensure that sovereign money remains at the core of European payment systems. ”
The digital euro would also help bring down costs linked to electronic payments. Although cash use declined somewhat during the pandemic, the share of electronic payments is considerably lower in the euro zone than in other parts of the world—in part because vendors say they’ re expensive. The ECB doesn’ t want to let foreign service providers or cryptocurrencies take the lead in technological improvements.
Like other central banks, the ECB is toying with Bitcoin-like distributed ledger technology for its digital currency, but it already has an instant payments system called TIPS, short for Target Instant Payment Settlement, which could be expanded to allow retail use. Unlike the blockchains used by Bitcoin and other cryptos, it’ s a centralized ledger—and that makes it faster and likely more environmentally friendly. Officials say the plan is to have a functioning digital euro by the middle of this decade.
Latin America’ s largest economy is set to test its digital currency in parts of the country by the second half of this year. To Brazil’ s central bank chief, Roberto Campos Neto, a digital real is the natural next step in the country’ s evolution toward a faster, cheaper, and more inclusive payment system.
“ We hope it will be part of everyday life, to be used in tandem with bank accounts, payment accounts, credit cards, and physical money, ” he said in late November at an online event.
Brazil’ s ambition for the digital currency in its initial phases is to promote investment and innovation rather than to serve as a traditional means of payment. Proposals are rolling in from companies in Brazil and around the world for projects that could be facilitated with digital money. Examples include creating digital tokens to represent ownership of vehicles and real estate and financing small businesses and projects in rural areas that would be more expensive or even unfeasible with traditional currency.
“ We want to add services that don’ t yet exist in Brazil, such as new ways of payments and settlements—we see the digital real as the foundation of a smart-payment platform, ” says Fabio Araújo, who oversees the digital real working group at the central bank.
The digital real would build on existing projects, including Brazil’ s instant-payments platform Pix and open banking, a data system for financial institutions in which clients can share their personal information. Pix has been a success, with more than 113 million Brazilians and 8 million companies using it to make instant payments or transfers. But the government has ruled out allowing Brazilians to hold accounts directly with the central bank instead of commercial banks.
“ We want to maintain the partnership we have with the financial system and open the door to new business and fintechs, ” Araújo says.
Allowing conversion from digital to physical money is a goal, meaning Brazilians could hold CBDC in their bank accounts or e-wallets and still withdraw cash from an ATM. That won’ t happen before 2024, because it requires changes in legislation to allow the circulation of digital money.
As of now, the central bank is collaborating with private companies on a set of projects to be implemented in small cities and other locations around the country.
“ We want Brazilians to have a very natural relationship with the digital real, ” Araújo says. “ It’ s not about saying ‘ now I’ m using digital reais.’ It’ s about allowing citizens to do transactions that were very difficult to implement in the past. ”
Nigeria hopes its CBDC will bring basic financial services to more of its citizens, but so far it’ s been slow going. The eNaira went into circulation in October 2021 with the goals of improving monetary policy, boosting financial inclusion, allowing residents to increase remittances from Nigerians living abroad, and completing transactions more efficiently, according to the country’ s central bank. The regulator accelerated the project last year after banning financial institutions from transacting in cryptocurrencies, which it said posed a threat to the financial system.
The West African nation has been failing to meet its goal to bring more citizens into the regulated financial system. At the end of 2020, almost 36% of adults in Nigeria didn’ t have a bank account, according to Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access, a development organization that tracks the data. The government’ s 2013 goal was to cut that proportion to 20% by 2020.
The eNaira has also struggled to meet its objectives. Not enough people know about it, especially in rural areas. And as of now it’ s only available to bank customers, while the central bank monitors how secure it is before deciding when to extend it to the unbanked. Users need a smartphone and a biometric verification number ( BVN) from their bank for the platform’ s security. Even those who qualify aren’ t always able to link the e-wallet with their BVN.
The scarcity of individual users has slowed merchant enrollment. About 700,000 customers from a population of 200 million were in the program at the end of January, according to Lagos-based ThisDay newspaper. Fewer than 10% of transactions were person-to-person or person-to-merchant and vice versa, while about 90% involved banks, Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele said in January.
For the eNaira to succeed, it “ needs more consumers to download and fund the wallet, and the wallet needs to have multiple-use cases that appeal to customers and merchants, ” says Adesoji Solanke, director for frontier and sub-Saharan African banks and financial technology at Renaissance Capital.
Nigeria is working with banks to resolve the technical issues and make it easier to enroll, including enabling Nigerians who don’ t have smartphones to use the currency, according to Emefiele. The central bank is working to get more people to understand the eNaira and also engaging fintechs to create products on the virtual platform to increase payments and broaden penetration, the governor said.
In April 2021, La Soufrière volcano erupted, covering many of the islands of St. Vincent and the Grenadines in ash and forcing more than 20,000 people–almost one-fifth of the population—to leave. Evacuees waited in line for hours for money transfers that could take days to clear and came with hefty fees.
The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, issuer of the Eastern Caribbean Dollar used by eight island nations, had a solution. A month earlier, the bank had become the world’ s first currency union to mint CBDC. So it expedited its plan for St. Vincent, and by July it was offering suffering residents access to DCash. With DCash, anyone with a mobile phone and a digital wallet could receive e-money immediately at no charge. No bank account, no problem.
The influx of money—particularly from relatives on neighboring islands—helped jump-start recovery efforts. DCash allowed people to pay for services remotely when they were cut off from their communities, says Sharmyn Powell, chair of the Fintech Working Group at the ECCB. As with other central banks, the ECCB’ s prime reason for introducing DCash was to bring more people into the financial system and to boost the regional economy, Powell says.
“ If you want innovation, you have to have a payment platform that supports innovation, ” she says. “ If you want to support competitiveness and trade within countries, you need a payment method that gives people confidence that they can get quick, real-time settlement. ”
That’ s especially true during an emergency. When the Bahamas introduced the world’ s first CBDC, the Sand Dollar, in 2020, one motivation was to be able to get money to far-flung islands after hurricanes. Jamaica and Haiti have similar ambitions for their own CBDCs.
DCash’ s initial rollout hasn’ t been smooth. Although more than 4,000 people have downloaded wallets and more than 120 merchants accept DCash, Covid and technical glitches have hampered its adoption, Powell says. In January the currency platform crashed, and it took the ECCB almost two months to fully restore it.
Even so, the e-currency is being used in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Anguilla, the final currency union member, is expected to come online soon. That will be followed by a broader marketing and education push, Powell says.
“ In the next six months or so we will see a whole new picture in terms of penetration of DCash across the currency union, ” she predicts. “ We are going to come out of this much stronger than before. ”
It’ s not easy for people—or money—to flow around the Marshall Islands. A population of about 68,000 is spread over 1,100 islands and islets scattered across 750,000 square miles of the Pacific.
The nation passed a law in 2018 making the blockchain-based Sov—short for “ sovereign ” —legal tender. Supply growth is meant to be limited to 4% each year to keep a lid on inflation. “ It’ s as close to Bitcoin as it gets if you want a decentralized cryptocurrency issued by government, ” says Henri Arslanian, PwC’ s crypto leader.
Other countries in the Pacific with dispersed and isolated populations are working on their own projects.
“ We’ ve run out of pennies, run out of quarters, ” says Surangel Whipps Jr., the president of Palau. Sometimes, people even “ get a piece of candy as a replacement for a coin. ”
The Pacific archipelago has formed a partnership with crypto firm Ripple to develop a digital currency strategy. Whipps sees potential for a stablecoin—a cryptocurrency meant to track the value of a traditional currency or other asset—based on the U.S. dollar.
“ Innovation is coming from economies that need to create these things, ” says Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’ s GeoEconomics Center. “ Larger economies are looking at them to see whether they could apply that. ” �With assistance from Yujing Liu in Beijing; Jim Wyss in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Maria Eloisa Capurro in Brasilia; and Emele Onu in Lagos
Ossinger covers cryptocurrencies in Singapore, and Look reports on the European economy and central bank in Frankfurt. | general |
Manhattan Apartment Rents Hit Another Record in Frenzied Market | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment rents hit a record high for a second straight month as the city roars back from the depths of the pandemic.
Tenants paid a median of $ 3,644 on new leases signed in March, the most in three decades of data-keeping by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Rents jumped 23% from a year earlier and are up $ 14 from the previous record, set in February.
Mirroring the competitive sales market, nearly a fifth of leases were signed at rates above their asking prices -- on average 9.7% more. The numbers were similar for February, the first month the firms tracked rental bidding wars.
Demand is intense as Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, more employers get workers back into their offices and the city’ s social life bounces back. While some renters are just arriving in New York, others who took advantage of pandemic bargains now face the dilemma of renewing at substantially higher prices, or moving to keep their costs down.
Apartment-hunters are finding that the incentives so common during the pandemic’ s darkest months have become rarer and smaller. About 18% of new leases last month had a landlord concession, such as a free month or payment of a broker’ s fee, down from 34% a year earlier. The value of sweeteners dropped to 1.5 months of rent, down from two months in March 2021.
Helping give landlords the upper hand is the vacancy rate, which remained below 2% for a fourth consecutive month. Vacancies averaged just over 2% before the pandemic but surged above 10% early last year, according to the firms.
The market may get even tougher for renters leading up to its busiest months, traditionally July and August, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.
“ There’ s a fair amount of growth in front of us, this is not a peak yet, ” he said. “ Right now it’ s ramping up into the spring and summer, and I would suspect we’ re going to continue atypical rent growth until then. ”
On the bright side, inventory is on the rise, which may help cool competition. While listings are still down significantly from a year earlier, there were 35% more apartments available for rent in March than in February, Corcoran Group said in its own report. | general |
Fast Retailing Gains After Operating Profit Tops Projections | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A Uniqlo store, operated by Fast Retailing Co., in the Ginza district of Tokyo, Japan, on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. Fast Retailing is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings results on April 14., Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing Co. rose the most in more than three weeks after reporting a 27% jump in quarterly operating profit and kept its outlook for the fiscal year despite the shutdown of its Russian operations and the resurgence of Covid in China that are fueling uncertainty in clothing sales across the world.
Fast Retailing rose as much as 5.3% in Tokyo trading, the biggest intraday gain since March 17. The stock, which hit a record in February 2021, has lost more than 40% of its value since then through yesterday.
Operating profit rose to 70 billion yen ( $ 558 million) for the three months ended Feb. 28, led by higher sales in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia, compared with the 66 billion yen average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue rose 1.5% to 592 billion yen.
“ The robust growth in North America and EU markets reflects the strong demand amid the continued easing of COVID-19 restrictions and stronger digital and in-store marketing. ” said Eric Lau, an equities analyst at Citigroup Inc. in a note to clients.
For the current fiscal year through August, Fast Retailing is forecasting operating profit of 270 billion yen on revenue of 2.2 trillion. The company raised its outlook for net income to 190 billion yen, from a prior 175 billion yen, citing a weaker yen that boosts income brought back home.
Last month, Fast Retailing’ s rival Hennes & Mauritz AB reported a sudden slowdown in revenue growth during March, sending shares to a two-year low. China, the largest market for Fast Retailing outside of Japan, is sticking to its policy of eliminating Covid-19 infections, locking down cities such as Shanghai. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for China’ s growth in 2022 by 0.5 percentage points due to the increased difficulty of containing the omicron variant. China accounted for 22% of Fast Retailing’ s sales last year.
The retailer temporarily suspended operations in Russia in March, joining a growing list of global businesses in curtailing their activities in the country after its invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Fast Retailing has 50 Uniqlo shops in Russia, the largest number of outlets outside of Asia. Russia’ s war against Ukraine comes at a time when Fast Retailing seeks to expand its presence in Europe and reduce its dependence on Japan where the population is shrinking. | general |
China’ s Coal Sector Raises Alarm Over Potential for More Outages | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s industrial heartlands could be headed for another power crunch as imports dwindle and a resurgent virus clogs up transport of the nation’ s mainstay fuel.
Eight coastal provinces, including powerhouse Guangdong, are expected to see a growing shortfall of coal for industry and cooling needs, Li Xuegang, vice president of the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, said at an online briefing on Wednesday.
Concerned by the threat of power outages during peak summer demand, the authorities in Guangdong have asked the central government to ensure that miners keep the province supplied via longer term contracts, according to Thermal Coal Today. Forecasts of drier weather in some regions could add to supply pressures, given the reliance of Guangdong and other southern provinces on hydropower.
China’ s overseas purchases of coal fell 24% on year in the first quarter to 52 million tons after domestic price controls made imports less economical. That’ s a particular problem for coastal regions in the south as virus restrictions have slowed the transport of fuel from the mining hubs of the north and west.
Low margins due to the price caps are also a disincentive to long-distance sales. Li said coastal inventories had dropped by about a fifth in March compared to the end of 2021, when production was boosted to record levels in the wake of an unprecedented energy crisis in the fall that forced factories to shut.
His comments are in line with the China National Coal Association, which said in its annual report last month that China should expect periodic shortages in some regions this year even as miners have increased production.
Nationwide coal output in the first two months rose 11% on year to about 687 million tons, or 11.6 million tons a day. It’ s expected to have risen slightly in March, but still be below averages of more than 12 million tons recorded over November and December.
China’ s push for domestic miners to raise production has reached its limits, according to Li. Although Beijing wants to add another 300 million tons of capacity -- an amount that’ s close to recent annual import needs -- it hasn’ t given a timeline for the expansion.
In the meantime, miners will probably face stricter safety and environmental restrictions on their output to avoid mishaps in a crucial election year for President Xi Jinping.
( All times Beijing unless shown otherwise.)
The extended lockdown of Shanghai and other cities has prompted China’ s cabinet to call for a cut in the amount of money that banks are required to keep in reserve. Bloomberg Economics says that could be announced as early as Thursday. A cut to interest rates may follow on Friday as China attempts to rescue the economy’ s growth prospects in the face of a resurgent virus.
China’ s network of delivering everything from electronic parts to raw materials to the nation’ s factories has nearly ground to a halt as Covid-19 restrictions leave hundreds of thousands of truck drivers caught in a web of quarantine controls.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
Easter Travel Surge to Stress U.K. Airports, Roads and Ports | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Passengers queue to check in at British Airways desks inside the departures hall of Terminal 5 at London Heathrow Airport in London, U.K., on Wednesday, April 13, 2022. Travel disruption continued to hit U.K. holidaymakers as officials warned of expected queues at airports later in the week and motorists faced fuel shortages., Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg
Sun-starved British travelers endured hours-long backups this month trying to leave the country for a spring holiday. The return trip could bring renewed stress.
The past two weekends saw rolling chaos at airports and the Port of Dover, while fuel shortages in some places added to the uncertainty over travel. Many families will soon return to the U.K. ahead of schools starting up again after the long Easter weekend, testing the Border Force once again.
Airlines scheduled around 25,000 international flights per week to and from the U.K. over the Easter holidays, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. While that’ s still only 85% of 2019 capacity, it represents a rapid ramp-up from levels earlier in the year.
The Cirium figures exclude hundreds of pre-emptive flight cancellations made by airlines including EasyJet Plc and British Airways, which have struggled to contend with staff illnesses and, in BA’ s case, hiring delays, technology glitches and resource shortages at its London Heathrow base.
The pared-back schedules set the tone for a holiday period that hasn’ t gone smoothly for carriers. They now find themselves on the defensive even as they welcome back much-needed customers.
Staffing shortages and hiring delays continue to dog the system, raising the risk of further delays, cancellations or missed flights. At Manchester airport, a shortage of staff trained on scanners was the main cause of congestion that prompted an apology last week from CEO Charlie Cornish. Wait times as long as 90 minutes to get through security will persist for several months.
The biggest pinch point at London’ s Heathrow airport this weekend could be with incoming traffic. Europe’ s largest hub said it had sufficient staff to conduct security checks, but it expected the longest lines at immigration.
The U.K. Border Force, which processes arriving passengers, warned of longer wait times due to expected high volumes. The agency has mobilized more staff and will deploy them flexibly to manage demand, it said in a statement.
BA, a unit of IAG SA, said it has lowered frequencies on some routes and brought in larger aircraft to minimize customer disruptions from schedule cutbacks made in late March, just ahead of the holiday surge.
Luton-based EasyJet said this week that it hasn’ t yet seen a let-up in Covid-19 cases that have driven absences at some bases to 20% of staff. Larger rival Ryanair Holdings Plc, whose main U.K. base is at London Stansted, hasn’ t suffered the same levels of cancelations or delays.
There has been significant disruption in recent weeks on the vital shipping route from Dover to Calais, France, which transports thousands of trucks, cars and passengers between mainland Europe and the U.K.
That’ s set to continue this weekend after authorities on Thursday diverted passenger cars off the M20, the main highway linking London to Dover, and onto local roads to make way for trucks headed for the EU.
The abrupt firing of almost 800 workers by P & O Ferries, which operates about a third of the capacity on the link, has led to a spat with the government and a suspension of the company’ s operations on the route.
P & O tried to bring two ships back into service this week, the Spirit of Britain and the Pride of Kent. Both failed safety inspections with new, agency-supplied crews -- the Pride of Kent for a second time -- and won’ t be in use for the weekend.
DFDS A/S, which had been taking passengers with P & O reservations, has added capacity to France but says it won’ t accept its competitor’ s customers over the Easter weekend.
The port tumult was exacerbated last week by an IT glitch on a key customs system instituted after the U.K.’ s departure from the European Union. The problem led to 20-mile queues for trucks trying to cross the Channel. HM Revenue & Customs officials say the issue has now been resolved.
Eurostar International Ltd. is running at about 84% of pre-pandemic levels as it continues to build up services.
There will be up to 15 daily round-trips between London and Paris this weekend, up to six between London and Brussels, one between London and Disneyland Paris and three between London and Amsterdam, a spokeswoman said. That compares with as many as 19 returns a day to Paris, eight to Brussels, one to Disney and two to Amsterdam in the same weekend in 2019.
Londoners hoping travel by train to Liverpool or Glasgow will be out of luck, thanks to London’ s Euston station being closed for upgrade works. Getting to airports will also pose challenges, with fewer trains stopping at Gatwick because of construction work and the Piccadilly Tube line to Heathrow not running all weekend.
Nearly 22 million people will hit U.K. roads this weekend -- some 40% of those heading to airports, ferries or the Eurotunnel -- according to roadside recovery firm Green Flag.
“ It’ s very possible this weekend could turn out to be one of the busiest for leisure journeys for many years, ” with traffic exceeding 2019 levels, said Rod Dennis, a spokesman for motoring group RAC.
Climate-change protests have exacerbated fuel shortages -- most acutely for diesel -- that were triggered by Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine. Several stations in southeast England ran out of supplies last weekend, and the environmental group Just Stop Oil plans further actions this weekend.
A spokeswoman for the group wouldn’ t say where it plans to target, after protesters disrupted supplies at two terminals in Essex on Wednesday by blocking tankers and loading bays.
Elon Musk has made a “ best and final ” offer to buy Twitter, saying the company has extraordinary potential and he will unlock it.
Hours after delivering the biggest interest-rate hike in 22 years in Canada, Tiff Macklem had a message for investors: There’ s no reason to worry about inflation getting out of hand.
Stocks and government bonds were mixed as investors focus on corporate earnings and the European Central Bank’ s meeting later on Thursday for cues on the path of monetary policy.
Oil declined after a two-day rally that pushed prices back above US $ 100 a barrel as investors digested a raft of factors including the continuing fallout from Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine and China’ s latest round of virus lockdowns. | general |
Singapore PM Lee Signals Lawrence Wong Becomes New Successor | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Lawrence Wong, Singapore's finance minister and co-chair of the multi-ministry Covid-19 task force, in Singapore, on Monday, Sept. 27, 2021. Singapore stocks rose Monday amid comments from the city-state’ s finance minister that the country is committed to reopening, and that recently reimposed curbs are to ensure the health system can handle an increased number of daily cases. Photographer: Lauryn Ishak/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Lawrence Wong has been chosen as the new leader of the so-called fourth generation team, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a Facebook post, effectively paving the way for him to become the next premier.
A consultation process found “ overwhelming support ” for Wong among cabinet ministers, Lee said.
“ Singapore will always need a strong team in charge, with a leader who can bring others together, and draw out the best of each team member, ” Lee added. “ I have every confidence that Lawrence and his team will continue to give their best for Singapore and Singaporeans. ”
Canada joins U.S., U.K. in diplomatic boycott of Beijing games
Trudeau weighs auto-content rules as next U.S. trade flashpoint
Unused to volatility, young investors may dread a downturn. Here's how to prepare | general |
Why You Need Geopolitical Monitoring | Currently, the most affecting geopolitical conundrum has to be the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the response and sanctions Europe and the United States have made against Russia. In retaliation to those sanctions and other penalties, Russia is likely to turn to cybercrime directed at the United States and Europe.
Additionally, Russia may specifically target large industries and companies who have exited Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, and has even threatened to target Russian employees of such U.S. and European companies
This kind of tension is likely to persist in one form or another—countries are always at odds with one another, and companies like yours may feel the brunt of those tensions.
How can employers secure the safety of their employees? Geopolitical Monitoring can help you gain situational awareness of rapidly evolving geopolitical risk to your employees and/or assets within or across geographic regions.
The world is increasingly reliant on the internet. Onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted almost the entire working world towards remote work online.
Before this shift, industries needed to rely on interconnected information systems to implement automated processes and transactions. Most industries now rely on the internet to get their work done.
But with so many businesses operating in the online realm, the risk of cyber security breaches has increased significantly.
In fact, VMware’ s 2021 Global Security Insights Report found that 63% of US cybersecurity professionals said attacks increased due to employees working remotely.
This is why predicting future shifts of the world’ s political powers is crucial to protecting physical assets from cyber security breaches. Without a geopolitical intelligence platform to monitor these shifts and gain situational awareness about geopolitical events like protests, social unrest, election fraud, structural attacks, etc. your company could be vulnerable to both cyber and physical attacks.
Overseas hackers are increasingly interested in targeting the energy and telco sectors as well as financial services – all critical infrastructure that can inflict the most damage. Here are a few scenarios worth considering:
While the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought many of these cyber concerns to light, they are not new. Nor will they go away—the constant shifts in the geopolitical structure of the world will create new cyber threats that you need to be prepared for.
Operating a business across multiple global markets has many cyber and physical security risks. Geopolitical monitoring can mitigate those risks by gathering and analyzing data about a given country’ s geography, language, and sociopolitical context.
Constella’ s geopolitical protection platform collects and interprets intelligence from the surface, deep, and dark web and social media, to anticipate global geopolitical trends that may present early warning signals of risk to organizations—including specific executives, facilities or operations. Anticipating these risks through geopolitical intelligence monitoring enables global organizations to stay one step ahead.
Request a demo of Constella’ s geopolitical protection platform and learn how you can stay one step ahead of geopolitical threats that could adversely impact your people, your brand or your assets.
Learn more about our Geopolitical Intelligence Monitoring solution.
The post Why You Need Geopolitical Monitoring appeared first on Constella.
* * * This is a Security Bloggers Network syndicated blog from Constella authored by BigLeap. Read the original post at: https: //constellaintelligence.com/why-you-need-geopolitical-monitoring/ | general |
API Security in a Zero Trust World | Cloud Migration. COVID19. Globalization. IT infrastructure, data and users are much more geographically dispersed than ever. The traditional concept of a security perimeter is much less relevant. This is leading many organizations to adopt Zero Trust Architecture ( ZTA) principles, many of which focus on assessing user trust and governing access to sensitive networks, systems, and data through primary user interfaces. But many ZTA initiatives overlook the increased prevalence of API-based access to sensitive application functionality and data as they are designing ways to assess trust on a continuous basis.
In the sections that follow, we’ ll highlight some of the points of intersection between APIs and ZTA. We’ ll also outline some initial steps that you can take to extend your ZTA to include APIs.
Zero Trust Architecture principles were introduced to mainstream enterprise security audiences by Forrester Research in 2010. Zero Trust has evolved greatly since then – both by Forrester and by numerous other industry stakeholders, including NIST in Special Publication 800-207 ( NIST SP 200-807).
In simple terms, a Zero Trust Architecture assumes that no user or device can be implicitly trusted by default and should be subject to assessment every time access to a sensitive resource is attempted – and then continuously thereafter.
For many years, ZTA was more of a discussion topic than something that organizations were pursuing in the real-world. But with the global migration of workers to their homes induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations were forced to push forward with tangible plans for adoption of ZTA principles.
For example, in a January 2022 national security memorandum ( NSM-8), the Biden administration directed all U.S. federal agencies to develop a plan for ZTA adoption based on NIST SP 200-807 and other related guidance within 60 days. Similar initiatives continue to take shape in the private sector.
NIST SP 200-807 outlines seven basic tenets of ZTA. While these tenets encompass much more than API-based access to application functionality and data, they also have very clear points of intersection with an organization’ s API strategy.
The table below includes the seven basic tenets of ZTA as defined in NIST SP 200-807 with recommendations on aligning your organization’ s API security practices with them.
Tenet 1: “ All data sources and computing services are considered resources. ”
Many of the applications and data sources within the scope of ZTA are accessible via APIs in addition to direct user interfaces. So API interfaces should be included in your ZTA assessment and policy enforcement model.
Tenet 2: “ All communication is secured regardless of network location. ”
Even if APIs are only intended for internal use within a private data center or cloud environment, encryption, authentication, and authorization should be implemented as though it is external-facing, to ensure data confidentiality and integrity.
Tenet 3: “ Access to individual enterprise resources is granted on a per-session basis. ”
Trust should be evaluated before access to an API resource is granted. Access should be granted with the least privileges possible. Behavioral analytics should be used to monitor API usage and continuously assess trust.
Tenet 4: “ Access to resources is determined by dynamic policy—including the observable state of client identity, application/service, and the requesting asset—and may include other behavioral and environmental attributes. ”
In order to apply ZTA to APIs, you need to be able to identify the entities involved, infer business context, and use behavioral analytics to identify deviations from normal usage patterns.
A behavioral attribute of note is service-denial via rapid API calls. This is why a lack of API rate limiting is an OWASP API Top 10 vulnerability.
As NIST notes, “ These rules and attributes are based on the needs of the business process and acceptable level of risk. ”
Tenet 5: “ The enterprise monitors and measures the integrity and security posture of all owned and associated assets. ”
This requirement is based on the Continuous Diagnostics and Mitigation ( CDM) concept defined by U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency ( CISA). CDM includes elements such as asset management, vulnerability management, and configuration / settings management.
Just like physical assets, APIs must be continuously discovered, classified, and tracked. Similarly, ongoing vulnerability assessments should extend beyond traditional network and application security vulnerabilities to include possible API-based vulnerabilities.
Tenet 6: “ All resource authentication and authorization are dynamic and strictly enforced before access is allowed. ”
This concept can and should be extended to APIs. Organizations adopting ZTA should perform continuous monitoring of API usage and take automated responses ( e.g., block, limit, revoke credentials) when anomalistic or abusive behavior is detected within authenticated and authorized API traffic.
Tenet 7: “ The enterprise collects as much information as possible about the current state of assets, network infrastructure and communications and uses it to improve its security posture. ”
In order to be an effective element of a ZTA, your API security measures must be capable of capturing data over extending time periods – ideally sufficient time to detect subtle API abuse.
This level of detail is necessary to perform behavioral analytics for both real-time risk assessment and ongoing improvements to the ZTA design. This includes providing on-demand access to API and threat data to threat hunters for use in identifying possible policy improvements. Similar integration points should also be created with the development and operational tools and workflows that your teams use.
One of the biggest challenges that most organizations adopting ZTA have is deciding where to start. In the case of API security, implementing the following capabilities will make an immediate impact on your security posture while also giving you the foundation you need to incorporate API security into your future ZTA plans.
Getting started with ZTA and systematic security can seem daunting. But it doesn’ t have to be. Visit neosec.com to access a free trial of our 100 percent cloud-based API security platform.
* * * This is a Security Bloggers Network syndicated blog from Blog authored by Neosec Team. Read the original post at: https: //www.neosec.com/blog/api-security-in-a-zero-trust-world | general |
China’ s Covid Deaths Data Questioned as Tally Lags Other Nations | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A medical worker swab tests a resident during a round of Covid-19 testing in a neighborhood placed under lockdown in Shanghai, China, on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. China hasn't budged in its opposition to living with the virus even in the midst of the country's worst outbreak, but its leaders are now pursuing an easier containment strategy in the uphill battle to tame the hyper-infectious coronavirus. Photogorapher: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- Almost two months into China’ s worst Covid-19 outbreak, the vast country has reported only two deaths -- a striking number that’ s the subject of growing debate because it appears to best even nations with higher vaccination rates.
China reported more than 386,000 cases in the first six weeks of its latest outbreak, giving it a fatality rate of about 0.5 for every 100,000 people infected through April 13. The deaths both occurred in the northeastern province of Jilin, while financial hub Shanghai, now the epicenter of the country’ s outbreak with a record 27,719 cases on Thursday, hasn’ t reported any so far.
The low death rate is in marked contrast to what happened when the highly transmissible omicron variant coursed through Singapore, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, some of the world’ s best performers in curbing Covid and vaccinating to a high level, a data analysis by Bloomberg News shows.
In New Zealand, where more than 95% of those 65 and older have been fully inoculated, just four people died in the first five weeks of its omicron outbreak before the number shot up. By the sixth week -- where China is now -- its fatality rate had risen to 5 for every 100,000 infections. That’ s ten times the rate in China, despite the fact that China has fully vaccinated only 81% of people aged 60 and above.
The divergence has caught the eye of experts.
“ The bottom line is I’ m skeptical about the death rate reported in China, ” said Peter Collignon, an infectious disease physician and professor at the Australian National University Medical School in Canberra. With omicron driving the current outbreak in China, “ it’ s a bit hard to believe that in Shanghai it’ s behaving differently to everywhere else in the world where this is circulating. ”
There is speculation China -- mindful of its strong pandemic track record and the scrutiny its stringent Covid Zero policy is now receiving -- isn’ t fully disclosing the scale of the current outbreak. At least 20 people died at an elderly-care facility in Shanghai that was hit recently by Covid, though the causes of death remain unclear, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month.
China’ s omicron outbreak was expected to be deadly because of the relatively low vaccination rate among the elderly and the use of less potent domestically developed shots, according to health experts who spoke to Bloomberg. The fact that reported numbers haven’ t budged is therefore raising questions.
Only 57% of the elderly in China have gotten a booster shot. The country’ s strict Covid Zero policy, which successfully averted outbreaks before the highly transmissible omicron variant emerged, means there have been few infections that would have built up the nation’ s natural immunity.
For a place like China where the vaccination rate is good -- at 88% for the overall population -- but lower than some of the world’ s highest inoculating countries, the death rate should be at least 100 per 100,000 infected people, according to Collignon.
A case in point is Hong Kong, which is still recovering from what became the world’ s deadliest outbreak at the time. The city shares similarities with Shanghai in that a lot of the population was vaccinated with Chinese shots and its elderly immunization rate before the latest wave was even lower than China’ s. More than 8,700 people died in Hong Kong during the latest surge, giving it a fatality rate of 739 per 100,000 infections.
Still, Shanghai did lock down unlike Hong Kong, a move that has induced much hardship on the population but which may have contained cases and potentially even deaths. It’ s also possible the virus hasn’ t penetrated China’ s elderly population as deeply as it did in other countries, reducing its harm.
There is a lag of two to four weeks between an increase in infections and severe outcomes such as death, said Paul Griffin, a professor from the University of Queensland in Brisbane. The number of deaths is expected to start to climb by two months into the outbreak, said Griffin, and China is approaching that mark.
Shanghai officials said on Thursday that nine residents have serious infections. Eight of them are over the age of 70 and have other underlying medical conditions.
“ I guess that lag will declare itself over the coming week, as we start to see at least some of those people will progress to more severe consequences, ” he said.
Researchers at the University of Washington’ s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate that more than 33,000 people have died already in China from Covid, seven times the official number -- which at 4,638 gives it one of the lowest death tolls in the world. A further 136,000 people are expected to die in the country between now and Aug. 1, said Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer for population health at the university.
The undercounting of Covid deaths is common across the world, although in some cases it seems more extreme in China, said Mokdad, who helped establish the field epidemiology program at the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The phenomenon could be caused by Covid control personnel being overtaxed, with the same group of people having to do the work of testing, monitoring and containing the outbreak, while keeping up with the surveillance systems
“ We believe China will be able to control the spread of the pandemic right now, but not for long, ” said Mokdad. “ The number of deaths being reported right now from China, I don’ t think they are the full story, either from a lag in reporting or something else. ” | general |
Westchester Home Sales Slow as NYC Suburbs Run Low on Listings | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Home sales in Westchester County slowed for the first time since the summer of 2020, after a pandemic buying boom left little on the market in the pricey New York suburbs.
In the first quarter, purchases of all types of homes slipped 6.6% from a year earlier, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report Thursday. While transactions fell for the first time in six quarters, they were still up 28% from two years ago.
Westchester house-hunters, facing bidding wars and the urgency to outrun soaring mortgage costs, have been left with few choices, and that’ s slowing sales. After a pause in the wake of Covid-19 lockdowns, deals took off, with buyers rushing to the suburbs in search of more space. As a result, inventory is down 25% from a year earlier to 1,901 listings -- the lowest level for a first quarter on record, according to the firms.
Read more: U.S. Homebuyers Get Desperate in Overheated Spring Sales Season
“ What we’ re seeing is the aftermath of a complete market frenzy, ” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. “ Demand for Westchester properties has remained insatiable but continues to be hampered by near-record lows in housing supply. ”
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
Stocks fall Thursday ending holiday week lower; Twitter sheds 1.7% after Musk bid | U.S. stock-indexes finished lower Thursday, booking weekly declines in an abbreviated week of trade, with investors digesting quarterly results from major Wall Street banks and economic data, including March retail sales.
Shares of
Twitter Inc.
TWTR,
-1.68%
gave up earlier gains to end lower after Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-3.66%
chief Elon Musk offered to buy the whole company.
What happened
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.33%
shed 113.36 points, or 0.3%, ending at 34,451.23.
The S & P 500
SPX,
-1.21%
lost 54.00 points, or 1.2%, finishing at 4,392.59.
The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.14%
dropped 292.51 points, or 2.1%, closing at 13,351.08.
For the week, the S & P 500
SPX,
-1.21%
shed 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.14%
fell 2.6%, with both booking a second-straight week of losses. The Dow
DJIA,
-0.33%
lost 0.8%, recording a third-straight week of losses. U.S. equity markets
will be closed on Good Friday
.
What drove the market
Stocks finished down Thursday, led lower by technology stocks, as Treasury yields rose sharply and
China’ s COVID lockdowns were extended
to other cities beyond Shanghai.
News reports of
supply-chain disruptions
weighed on shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc.
AAPL,
-3.00%
and other technology companies,
including Tesla
. Musk also was in the spotlight for his $ 43 million takeover offered for Twitter.
“ The Twitter news was big, and that’ s causing Tesla shares to have a meaningful decline, ” said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management, by phone. “ The tech-complex has seen fallout from Chinese news on lockdowns expanding and facilities closing. ”
Read
:
If Musk’ s $ 43 billion Twitter takeover falls apart, who else has enough money to buy the company?
The S & P 500’ s information and technology sector was its worst performer Thursday, down 2.5%, ahead of the long weekend. Tech shares also likely were under pressure from higher Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury note
BX: TMUBMUSD10Y
up 12 basis points to 2.808%,
the highest since December 2018.
“ There’ s also a long weekend and volumes seem to be down, ” Stritch at BMO said, adding that in a jittery environment “ holding a long position over an extended weekend is probably more frowned upon. ”
Earnings also were in focus Thursday after banks including Goldman Sachs
GS,
-0.10%
,
Morgan Stanley
MS
, Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC
, and Citigroup Inc.
C
reported mixed quarterly results.
“ We are still very early on in the earnings season, ” Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at financial services company Ally, said in a phone interview Thursday.
“ I think my expectation going into earnings season, especially with the banks, was that they were going to set a somewhat cautious tone, ” Bell said. “ They are one of three sectors expected to report an earnings decline in the quarter, and they also have one of the toughest comparisons of all the 11 sectors that make up the S & P 500.
See
:
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup report lower earnings
In U.S. economic data Thursday,
retail sales rose a mild 0.5% in March
and a large part of the increase reflected higher gasoline prices, suggesting inflation is taking a toll on U.S. households. Sales in February were revised up to show a 0.8% increase instead of 0.3%.
Initial jobless claims
rose 18,000 to 185,000
in the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims had matched a 54-year low in the prior week.
The University of Michigan’ s gauge of consumer sentiment rose in April to 65.7, a more than 10% increase from March’ s reading of 59.4 as Americans
anticipated gasoline prices to remain steady over the next year
.
“ I think that we are starting to see early signs that inflation is peaking, ” Bell said.
New York Federal Reserve President, John Williams,
said Thursday
that the Fed needed to raise its benchmark interest rate “ expeditiously ” to get inflation under control. Asked about a half-point hike on May 4, Williams said “ that’ s not a decision we’ ve made yet ” but added “ I think that’ s a reasonable option for us because the federal-funds rate is very low. ”
Read:
This stock-market indicator says investors don’ t think inflation has peaked: analyst
What companies were in focus
Twitter shares fell 1.7% Thursday, giving up earlier gains after Musk disclosed he was offering to
buy all Twitter stock outstanding
he doesn’ t own for $ 54.20 a share, an 18.2% premium to Wednesday’ s closing price of $ 45.85.
Shares of
Morgan Stanley
MS
gained 0.8% after
beating profit and revenue targets
.
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC
shares fell 4.5% as the bank beat earnings targets, while falling short on revenue.
Citigroup Inc.
C
shares gained 1.6% as the bank
posted a 46% drop in profit
for the first quarter, while the earnings still topped analysts’ estimates.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS,
-0.10%
shares fell 0.1% after profit and revenue fell but topped Wall Street expectations.
Rite Aid Corp.
RAD,
-3.60%
shares slid 3.6% after it reported fourth-quarter revenue that
beat consensus and gave guidance ahead of Street expectations
. The pharmacy retailer posted a net loss of $ 389.1 million, or $ 7.18 per share, after a loss of $ 18.5 million, or 34 cents per share, last year.
How other assets performed
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
DXY,
+0.17%
,
a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, rose 0.5%.
Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+0.15%
fell 3.4% to under $ 39,800.
Oil futures shrugged off earlier losses, with the U.S. benchmark
CL.1,
+2.20%
closing up 2.6% at $ 106.954 a barrel, while gold futures
GC00,
-0.37%
fell 0.5% to settle at $ 1,974.90 an ounce.
The Stoxx Europe 600
SXXP,
+0.67%
rose 0.7%, while London’ s FTSE 100
UKX,
+0.47%
closed up 0.5%, but both booked weekly losses.
The Shanghai Composite
SHCOMP,
+1.22%
rose 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index
HSI,
+0.67%
was up 0.7% in Hong Kong and Japan’ s Nikkei 225
NIK,
-0.11%
gained 1.2%.
—William Watts contributed reporting | business |
Bank of Canada opens door to make saving worthwhile again | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
For long-suffering retirement savers, it might seem like a mirage.
In response to Wednesday’ s half-point rate hike by the Bank of Canada, Oaken Financial increased the annual yield on its five-year guaranteed investment certificate ( GIC) to four per cent. Other issuers are close behind with many five-year payouts now north of 3.5 per cent.
Even shorter-term GICs are giving some love. Ratehub lists most one-year GIC yields well above two per cent, and as high as 2.8 per cent. Last year at this time, you were lucky to get one per cent.
For Canadians saving for retirement, higher lending yields provide a safer way to reach return goals by shifting a larger portion of their portfolio assets from higher-risk equities to fixed income.
In more normal times — like three decades ago — the general rule of investing called for a fixed-income portfolio weighting roughly equal to the age of the investor. In other words, if you were 50 years old, half of your portfolio would be fixed income.
That went out the window starting in the 1990s when then-U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made it his mission to keep rates as low as possible, for as long as possible.
Since then, the average retirement investor couldn’ t attain their goals with a large portion of their savings earning less than two per cent each year.
Like the proverbial frog in the pot of boiling water, they have had to inch up the risk ladder to generate income through equities like dividend stocks and real estate investment trusts ( REITs). As a society, we have had to accept that our fortunes in retirement are closely linked to the whims of global equity markets.
Despite this week’ s hike — the biggest in 22 years — the Bank of Canada’ s benchmark rate is still only one per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem told Bloomberg News he expects it to linger between two and three per cent to achieve the central bank’ s two per cent inflation target. That means if all goes well, fixed income yields will continue to climb.
Even as it stands, with the right portfolio mix of fixed income and equities, a four-per-cent payout on a GIC makes it much easier to hit annual return targets of six or seven per cent. After all, equities are expected to do the heavy lifting and fixed income is expected to act as a cushion when stock markets tank.
In the age of rock-bottom yields, the only option for investors wanting the safety of fixed income was to ladder short-term maturities and dream of the day when they could venture into higher-yielding longer terms. Joey Mack, head of fixed income with Toronto-based RF Securities Clearing LP, says that day has come.
“ There’ s no reason not to activate cash and buy bonds from two to 10 years here, especially investment-grade corporate bonds trading at a discount and yielding over 3.5 per cent, ” he says.
That, of course, assumes central banks will be successful in getting inflation to target levels — and that assumes current supply-chain bottlenecks work themselves out, COVID-19 is under control, and the war in Ukraine doesn’ t escalate.
There are concerns that inflation could slip out of the control of central bank monetary policy, and the return of the double-digit rates of the 1980s could wipe out gains from fixed income.
Joey Mack said he believes the Bank of Canada’ s target inflation rate is attainable and a four-per-cent yield should keep well ahead of the cost of living.
If all goes well, happy days are here again for an entire generation that has never known the satisfaction and rewards from saving their hard-earned dollars. | general |
Pfizer and BioNTech say data shows high immune response for COVID booster in children aged 5 to 11 | Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
-0.02%
and German partner BioNTech SE
BNTX,
+6.06%
said Thursday a Phase 2/3 trial of their COVID-19 vaccine booster showed a high immune response in children aged 5-to-11-years old. Data from a sub-analysis of 30 sera from the trial showed a 36-fold increase in neutralizing titers against the omicron variant, which has become dominant globally. `` These data demonstrate an increase in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and wild-type strain neutralizing titers following a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine compared to two doses, '' the companies said in a joint statement. They are planning to submit the data to the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory bodies in the coming days. | business |
Arkam Ventures holds final close for early-stage fund after being delayed by COVID-19 – report | Indian venture capital firm Arkam Ventures has closed a $ 106m early-stage fund, The India Times reported. | business |
TANZANIA: Equinor keeps slow but steady pressure on Magufuli over Tanzania LNG | The British-Dutch major has been eying exploration and development opportunities south of the equator while it starts a gradual withdrawal from its West African assets. [... ]
The new president has made developing the gas sector, largely ignored by her predecessor John Magufuli, a priority of her five-year term in office. [... ]
The plan to build a pipeline from Tanzania's undeveloped gas reserves to the Kenyan port of Mombasa is highly contentious. [... ]
The Belgian cement magnate turned oil tycoon Eddy Van Den Broeke is struggling to get his first small-scale LNG project off the ground in Nigeria. On top of which, he is facing a $ 9m claim from his subcontractor Baker Hughes. [... ]
The inner circle of the late Tanzanian leader had maintained a strict news blackout on his state of health to delay for as long as possible the elevation of the vice president to the top job. [... ]
Equinor and Shell have no complaints about the way the Covid-19 pandemic has brought things to a standstill. It's given them time to change their teams in the hope of advancing offshore gas development at their own gentle pace. [... ]
Shell has picked another long-term company player to replace Axel Knospe at the head of the major's Tanzanian branch in [... ]
According to our sources, the ministry of energy sent out a letter in mid-September to the vast majority of oil [... ]
With a political environment unpropitious for investment in the gas sector, the two oil firms have lost nearly all of their rights after failing to secure extensions to their blocks. [... ]
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Elon Musk's Twitter takeover bid draws surprise, skepticism -- - and celebration | It should come as no surprise that Elon Musk proposing a hostile takeover of Twitter on Thursday quickly became
the
talk of Twitter — as well as subreddits like WallStreetBets, and conservative social media platforms Gettr and Truth Social.
The chatter ranged from supporters celebrating Musk’ s move as a takedown of “ Big Tech, ” to critics ( and people identifying as Twitter employees) threatening to leave the platform if Musk got his way, and questioning what he knows about running a social media company.
On Twitter
TWTR,
-1.68%
,
“ Elon Musk ” trended with “ free speech ” on Thursday morning. He was also a top Google
GOOGL,
-2.44%
search trend, along with Twitter and his EV company Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-3.66%
,
drawing more than 200,000 searches. The most popular Google queries included, “ Can Elon Musk takeover Twitter? ” and “ Why is Elon trying to buy Twitter? ”
Many conservative politicians and pundits, still smarting from former President Donald Trump’ s personal account being
“ permanently suspended ” from Twitter last year
“ due to the risk of further incitement of violence ” following the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, have accused the platform ( and Meta-owned
FB,
-2.24%
Facebook,
which also suspended Trump
) of liberal bias and silencing free speech.
The far-right social media platform Gettr said that Musk’ s takeover bid was further evidence that “ Twitter is a broken platform ” in a press release on Thursday.
“ It’ s clear Twitter disrespected the world’ s richest man, and he realizes that while Twitter’ s technology is good, the people running it can not be fixed, ” Gettr CEO Jason Miller said in a statement. “ Musk has made clear that in order to be saved, Twitter needs a wholesale tear-down to the foundation, its leadership must be removed, and the politically discriminating ideologues running day to day operations must be replaced. ”
Other conservative critics suggested that Musk buying Twitter could lead to Trump rejoining the platform — although the
former president said Thursday
that “ Twitter’ s become very boring, ” so he didn’ t intend to come back even if Musk would have him back on. Others crowed that Musk buying Twitter would bring free speech “ back ” to the platform.
It should be noted that Twitter has been cracking down on accounts pushing misinformation or spreading inflammatory remarks — such as Trump’ s — in a push toward accountability and transparency as social media companies have had to reckon with their
potential role in drug addiction, death, mental illness and sexual abuse
, as well as
the spread of health and COVID misinformation during the pandemic.
But that hasn’ t necessarily silenced conservative voices. A recent internal Twitter study found that
content from right-wing politicians and right-leaning news outlets received a greater boost from its algorithm
compared to left-leaning news outlets.
So even some fans of Musk suggested that he might be in over his head here.
And some critics said that some of Musk’ s actions on Twitter suggested he would be putting his self interests ahead of First Amendment rights like freedom of speech.
“ Leave Twitter ” began trending with more than 172,000 tweets and counting, as those with active Twitter accounts, and some identifying as employees of the company, threatened to defect if Musk took over.
Others called on Musk to take the $ 41 billion he’ d be using to buy Twitter to benefit the world in other ways — such as
Musk’ s recent claim that he would be willing to pay to end world hunger, which didn’ t really pan out
. And the big $ 41 billion figure being thrown around also stoked the wealth inequality debate.
There were also suggestions that Musk should start his own social media platform — or to take over
Trump’ s struggling Truth Social app
— and some smaller social media companies like Gab even posted counteroffers for Musk to invest in their companies, instead.
This being social media, there were plenty of jokes and memes being passed around, of course, with many including Musk and the Dogecoin Shiba Inu. ( Indeed, many supporters began musing whether a Musk-run Twitter would let them pay or tip in Dogecoin.)
While many users on WallStreetBets — a subreddit that popularized meme stocks Game Stop
GME,
+0.05%
and Bed Bath and Beyond
BBBY,
-2.45%
— were quick to joke about the purchase potential, there was some serious thought on what he was trying to do.
“ The legal pump and dump, ”
wrote one user
. “ Buy stock. Stock soars. Big d— offer to buy entire company. Sell when offer rejected, and express that you no longer feel comfortable in your investment. ”
Similarly, fellow billionaire Mark Cuban suggested that Musk is doing all this to mess with the SEC ( bad language alert in this tweet).
After opening up, the company gave back most of its gains. As of 1 p.m., shares were up less than a dollar as compared to Wednesday’ s close. | business |
Improving vaccine cold chain integrity with IoT analytics through SAS and NC Collaboratory partnership | The US Centers for Disease Control claims vaccine storage and transport issues are responsible for nearly 10% of the 65 million COVID-19 vaccine doses wasted in the US the past two years. To address this vaccine logistics challenge, the North Carolina Collaboratory and analytics leader SAS are using IoT analytics and sensor data from vaccine storage freezers to strengthen cold chain integrity and improve dosage delivery, particularly to underserved and rural communities.
Established by the state legislature in 2016 and headquartered at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the NC Collaboratory is a research and policy organization that taps into the resources and expertise of all 17 institutions of the University of North Carolina System. Among these institutions are several historically minority-serving institutions and remote campuses that host ultra-low temperature freezers that support more equitable vaccine distribution to underserved communities. The NC Collaboratory provided 63 freezers across the state, with a capacity of 9.3 million vaccine doses, nearly enough for every person in the state.
The NC Collaboratory turned to SAS® Analytics for IoT and Microsoft Azure to select, transform and operationalize data — without coding — from sensors across 10 freezer locations at universities, in addition to third-party public health data. The project monitored the impact of factors including temperature, humidity, vibration during transport, opening and closing, duration in storage and freezer capacity, while tapping predictive insights and intelligent alerting capabilities to identify and address potential dosage loss and regional vaccine shortages.
“ COVID-19 created the largest and most complex medical logistics program in modern history, ” said Jeff Warren, Executive Director of the NC Collaboratory. “ One of the most formidable challenges has been to protect supply chain integrity as vaccines are transported and stored from manufacturers to administration sites – particularly those in hard-to-reach, underserved communities. Our project with SAS demonstrated how IoT analytics and technologies can be a game changer in getting more vaccines to more people. ”
Supply chain expert Rob Handfield, Executive Director of North Carolina State University’ s Supply Chain Resource Cooperative, has advised SAS on its cold chain IoT efforts. “ With a cold supply chain, you must constantly maintain very low temperatures, as vaccines that exceed the limit begin to deteriorate in just five hours, ” said Handfield. “ The SAS approach seeks to create visibility and prediction into what is today a black box in the cold chain, helping logistics managers identify potential points of failure and proactively minimize vaccine loss. ”
SAS Analytics for IoT is being used to tackle a variety of global challenges, such as analyzing crop data to deliver higher-quality food, improving energy forecasting to reduce utility bills, and protecting people and property from dangerous flooding.
“ This project delivers on the promise of innovation by quickly and efficiently generating value from IoT data using SAS Analytics for IoT — an award-winning, cloud-native solution that employs AI and streaming capabilities to accelerate the generation of predictive insights, ” said Jason Mann, Vice President for Internet of Things at SAS. “ I’ m proud of our university partnerships, and our focus on applying proven IoT solutions to improve critical outcomes and strengthen the cold chain. This initiative will undoubtedly accelerate the state’ s ability to prepare and respond in the face of the next pandemic, variant or deployment of future mRNA vaccines. ” | tech |
UnitedHealth's Momentum Continues; Shares Still Rich | We may increase our fair value estimate to account for cash flows generated since our last valuation change.
UnitedHealth's ( UNH) strong results continued in the first quarter of 2022, as the firm delivered bottom-line results that were slightly higher than FactSet consensus and increased its 2022 guidance a bit. Our estimates for 2022 will likely remain within management's new targeted range, but we may increase our fair value estimate by about 5% primarily to account for cash flows generated since our last valuation change. Even after this change, the group's shares will likely still appear rich to us, especially relative to the company's MCO peers that have similar growth prospects but trade at lower multiples. Like its peers, UnitedHealth's economic moat remains narrow, which recognizes the long-term policy risks that the company faces despite its strongholds in medical insurance, pharmacy benefits, caregiving services, and analytical tools.
In the quarter, UnitedHealth delivered strong top- and bottom-line results. Revenue grew 14% to $ 80 billion with low-double-digit growth from its medical insurance and high-teens growth from its Optum businesses. In medical insurance, total medical membership grew 3% year over year with government-sponsored plans ( 8% growth) offsetting continued weakness in employer-sponsored plans ( flat). The Optum franchises were led by OptumHealth ( 34% revenue growth), as its local physician network grew and those providers continued to transition to value-based arrangements, which continues to boost revenue per member significantly on just low-single digit consumer growth. OptumInsight ( 13% revenue growth) and OptumRx ( 11% revenue growth) performed solidly, too. Compared with a tough comparable period related to COVID trends, UnitedHealth's adjusted EPS grew 3% to $ 5.49 this quarter, or better than FactSet consensus ( $ 5.36.) With that mild outperformance, management increased its 2022 outlook by a similar rate ( $ 0.10) to between $ 21.20 and $ 21.70 per share, and our adjusted EPS estimate for this year will likely remain within that range.
Julie Utterback does not own ( actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’ s editorial policies.
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’ d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’ s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
Coronavirus tally: Two new versions of omicron variant are spreading fast in New York, state officials warn | New York State has become a new COVID-19 epicenter because of two new versions of the omicron variant, that appear even more infectious than the BA.2 subvariant that has become dominant in the U.S., state officials said Wednesday. The two, named BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1, accounted for more than 70% of new cases in central New York State in March,
according to a statement from the health department.
The two are sub-lineages of BA.2, which accounts for 80.6% of COVID cases in New York. The two appear to have a 23% to 27% advantage over BA.2. `` While these subvariants are new, the tools to combat them are not. These tools will work if we each use them: get fully vaccinated and boosted, test following exposure, symptoms, or travel, consider wearing a mask in public indoor spaces, and consult with your healthcare provider about treatment if you test positive, '' said State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett in the statement. The World Health Organization said Wednesday that the omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 accounted for 99.2% of cases sequenced in the latest week, the latest sign of how dominant it has become. The U.S. is averaging 33,691 cases a day,
according to a New York Times tracker,
up 22% from two weeks ago. The country is averaging 14,751 hospitalizations a day, down 14% from two weeks ago, the lowest since the first weeks of the pandemic. The daily death toll has fallen below 600 to 513. On a global basis, total cases are now above 501.9 million, after breaching the 500 million mark on Monday. Total deaths are above 6.19 million, according to
data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University
, with the U.S. still leading the way with 80.5 million cases and 987.560 deaths. | business |
BioMed Momentum: VERU, NMLSF, PHRX, CRXT; Life Sciences Leaders Report Latest Advances in New Drug Development for COVID-19, Cancers, Glaucoma, and Autism | NEW YORK, April 14, 2022 ( GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Wall Street Reporter, the trusted name in financial news since 1843, has published reports on the latest comments and insights from CEOs of: Veru Inc. ( NASDAQ: VERU), Nova Mentis Life Sciences ( OTC: NMLSF) ( CSE: NOVA), Clarus Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: CRXT) and PharmaDrug ( OTC: LMLLF) ( CSE: PHRX).
As the global pharma market surpasses $ 1.3 trillion dollars ( Statista), emerging technologies and healthcare research innovations are unleashing new exponential growth opportunities. As the biotech sector rebounds from cyclical lows, institutional investors are increasingly eyeing early-stage biotech stocks for upside potential delivering alpha. Wall Street Reporter highlights the latest comments from industry thought leaders shaping our world today, and in the decades ahead:
Veru Inc. ( NASDAQ: VERU) CEO Mitchell Steiner, M.D: “ Sabizabulin Delivers Significant Milestone in COVID-19 ” Veru Inc. ( NASDAQ: VERU), an oncology biopharmaceutical company, today announced positive efficacy and safety results from a planned interim analysis of the double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 3 COVID-19 clinical trial evaluating oral sabizabulin 9 mg versus placebo in 150 hospitalized COVID-19 patients at high risk for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome ( ARDS). The Independent Data Safety Monitoring Committee unanimously recommended that the Phase 3 study be halted early due to efficacy, and they further remarked that no safety concerns were identified.CEO Mitchell Steiner, M.D, commented: “ This study represents a significant milestone in the global fight against COVID-19 as sabizabulin is the first drug to demonstrate a clinically and statistically meaningful reduction in deaths in hospitalized patients with moderate to severe COVID-19. We strongly believe that sabizabulin, with its dual anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties which demonstrated positive efficacy and safety results in the Phase 3 COVID-19 study, can be that greatly needed oral therapy for hospitalized moderate to severe COVID-19 patients. ” Veru Inc. ( NASDAQ: VERU) News: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/04/11/verus-novel-covid-19-drug-candidate-reduces-deaths-by-55/
PharmaDrug ( OTC: LMLLF) ( CSE: PHRX) CEO Dan Cohen: “ Advancing Drug Pipeline Addressing Billion Dollar Markets ” PharmaDrug ( OTC: LMLLF) ( CSE: PHRX) CEO Dan Cohen, a featured presenter at Wall Street Reporter’ s NEXT SUPER STOCK investors conference is advancing a pipeline of natural based drugs, addressing multi-billion dollar market opportunities in cancers, anti-viral and glaucoma indications. LMLLF now has four drug candidates advancing towards clinical trials, with key milestones in the weeks ahead. Watch NEXT SUPER STOCK PharmaDrug ( OTC: LMLLF) ( CSE: PHRX) Video: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/03/31/next-super-stock-pharmadrug-otc-lmllf-cse-phrx-advancing-biopharm-assets-w-billion-dollar-markets/
LMLLF’ s flagship platform is PD-001 – a reformulated and patented version of cepharanthine, with lab data demonstrating potential therapies for a number of anti-cancer and anti-viral indications. Cepharanthine is a natural based drug already approved in Japan, with a 70 year history of use. Cepharanthine has shown in studies to both stop the spread and kill cancer cells, and reduce resistance to chemotherapy. LMLLF’ s PD-001 is a reformulation of the traditional treatment in pill form used in Japan, but with 10X the bioavailability. LMLLF sees its PD-001 as a platform for potentially treating a wider array of cancer indications.
LMLLF is now advancing studies for PD-001 for treating esophageal, and prostate cancers. LMLLF has just received FDA Orphan Drug Designation for PD-001 for esophageal cancer a $ 1.5 billion market opportunity. Orphan Drug Designation allows for potentially fast track FDA approval, lower development costs and increased market protection. LMLLF is also advancing PD-001 for prostate cancer, filing a provisional patent for cepharanthine combined with chemo for prostate cancer.
LMLLF is also developing a treatment for glaucoma, based on a re-formulation of DMT ( N-Dimethyltryptamine) to reduce intraocular pressure. Tryptamines, including DMT, have been shown in clinical studies to reduce intraocular pressure. LMLLF is collaborating with the Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, a world class leader in development of novel drug delivery technologies to optimize DMT formulation with a controlled release device. LMLLF’ s clinical research has developed two potential drug formulations, which have have tested well for low toxicity, and show promising potency and efficacy, and expects to initiate FDA clinical trials in coming months. In his interview, CEO Dan Cophen also shares that LMLLF’ s pipeline assets have significant upside potential as biotech valuations recover from current cyclical lows.
March 9 - LMLLF reports positive interim findings for combination of Cepharanthine and frontline chemotherapy for IND-enabling prostate cancer study. The study demonstrated improved tumor growth inhibition by 73% compared to cabazitaxel-alone.
Feb 23 - LMLLF receives encouraging potency data for candidate DMT-analogue molecules designed to treat primary open angle glaucoma. LMLLF successfully completed a head-to-head potency comparator study of its two undisclosed DMT-analogue candidates for the treatment of primary open angle glaucoma ( POAG). LMLLF intends to use the current results in combination with several planned upcoming in vitro studies to elect its final development candidate. Future in vivo efficacy testing in an accepted model of POAG is currently being planned with the goal of providing all necessary support to file an investigative new drug ( IND) application with the FDA to conduct clinical studies.Watch NEXT SUPER STOCK PharmaDrug ( OTC: LMLLF) ( CSE: PHRX) Video: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/03/31/next-super-stock-pharmadrug-otc-lmllf-cse-phrx-advancing-biopharm-assets-w-billion-dollar-markets/
Nova Mentis Life Sciences ( OTC: NMLSF) ( CSE: NOVA) CMO Marvin Hausman, M.D.: “ Nova’ s Psilocybin-based Therapeutics Showing Vast Promise for Autism and Other Neuroinflammatory Disorders ” Nova Mentis Life Sciences ( OTC: NMLSF) ( CSE: NOVA) a featured presenter at Wall Street Reporter’ s NEXT SUPER STOCK investor conference is advancing psilocybin-based novel therapeutics, targeting autism spectrum disorders, an unmet medical need with multi-billion dollar market potential. NMLSF Chief Medical Officer Dr. Marvin Hausman, M.D., has a decades-long track record of success advancing new drugs through the FDA regulatory pathways, into commercialization, generating billions of dollars in revenue. Dr. Hausman, is now bringing the “ same playbook ” to NMLSF for its psilocybin-based therapeutics targeting Fragile X, then potential expansion to treat other neuroinflammatory disorders, including alzheimers, and parkinsons. NMLSF plans to submit a clinical trial application to Health Canada for a Phase 2A study evaluating its psilocybin microdose therapy for Fragile X Syndrome, in the coming weeks.
NMLSF is a global leader in first-in-class psilocybin-based therapeutics and complementary diagnostics for neuroinflammatory disorders. NMLSF is the first biotech company to achieve FDA “ Orphan Drug Designation ” in both the United States and European Union for the use of psilocybin in the treatment of FXS. In his interview, with Wall Street Reporter, Dr. Hausman explains his strategy for advancing NMLSF’ s drug pipeline through commercialization, as he has successfully accomplished with other novel drugs during his decades-long career.Watch NEXT SUPER STOCK Nova Mentis ( OTC: NMLSF) ( CSE: NOVA) Video: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/03/25/next-super-stock-nova-mentis-life-sciences-otc-nmlsf-billions-opportunity-w-autism-psilocybin/
`` The recently completed preclinical study of repeat low doses of our psilocybin drug - every other day for 2 weeks, showed clinical responses that greatly exceeded our expectations. We significantly modulated behavioural and cognitive defects, such as recognition memory, in FXS. '' NMLSF plans to submit a clinical trial application to Health Canada in the coming weeks for a Phase 2A study evaluating psilocybin microdose therapy for FXS. `` Autism spectrum disorder ( `` ASD '') and especially FXS, the largest genetic cause of ASD, continue to have unmet medical needs. Scientists at NOVA, over the past two years, have laid the groundwork for development of potential novel psilocybin-based microdose treatment of ASD, '' said NMLSF Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Marvin S. Hausman, MD.
April 8 - NMLSF contracts with Toronto Institute of Pharmaceutical Technology to formulate and manufacture psilocybin microdose capsules for its upcoming Canadian Phase 2A fragile X syndrome clinical study. NMLSF has already manufactured a large supply of > 98% pure psilocybin for clinical studies and commercialization following drug approval.
March 23 - NMLSF begins patient enrollment process for its North American Observational study: Establishing a Diagnostic and Therapeutic Index in Autism Spectrum Disorder ( ASD) and Fragile X Syndrome ( FXS). NMLSF’ s Observational Study will study the neuroinflammatory mRNA genetic profile contained within cheek cells from ASD and FXS patients, as well as measure serotonin levels in patient saliva. The research objective is to develop a genetic neuroinflammatory and serotonin data bank that will help establish a `` Diagnostic Index '' – an objective set of tools that helps to differentiate subtypes of ASD, as well as FXS, and to develop more accurate methods of diagnosis and treatment. Collected data will be analyzed using customized machine learning algorithms and used to guide design of upcoming clinical trials that will test the efficacy of psilocybin-based therapeutics in ASD and FXS. Patients enrolled in this Observational Study will have a high priority position to be enrolled in planned psilocybin microdose clinical trials in Canada and the United States. NOVA is aiming to recruit at least 300 qualifying participants; 200+ ASD/FSX patients and 100+ neurotypical controls. Patient enrollment information at: novamentis.ca/autismstudy
`` Families caring for patients with autism spectrum disorder ( ASD) and fragile X syndrome ( FXS) deserve new scientific and therapeutic options to improve diagnosis, quality of care and treatment outcomes. The goal of our North American ASD and FXS Observational Study is to uncover novel and meaningful ways to diagnose and treat ASD and FXS, which is particularly relevant for statistical separation between the multitude of ASD subtypes, currently differentiated rather crudely, based on behavioural analysis, '' says NMLSF Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Marvin S. Hausman MD.
February 16 - NMLSF successfully completes an oral microdose psilocybin preclinical study, in the laboratory of Dr. Viviana Trezza, Rome Tre University, Rome, Italy. The results exceeded all expectations with the findings that a very low dose of the Company's proprietary psilocybin significantly modulated behavioural and cognitive defects, such as recognition memory, in a genetic model of fragile X syndrome ( FXS). `` The science team led by Dr. Hausman, together with Dr. Viviana Trezza from Roma Tre University, continues to deliver promising preclinical results. The recent oral microdose data set not only confirms but exceeds our original injectable formulation results, '' says Will Rascan, CEO of NOVA. `` The clear positive data is critical as we prepare to submit our clinical trial application to Health Canada for a Phase 2A study evaluating psilocybin microdose therapy for fragile X syndrome. `` Watch NEXT SUPER STOCK Nova Mentis ( OTC: NMLSF) ( CSE: NOVA) Video: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/03/25/next-super-stock-nova-mentis-life-sciences-otc-nmlsf-billions-opportunity-w-autism-psilocybin/
Clarus Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: CRXT) CEO Dr. Robert Dudley: “ Advancing Androgen and Metabolic Therapies ” Clarus Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: CRXT), a pharmaceutical company dedicated to providing solutions to unmet medical needs by advancing androgen and metabolic therapies for men and women, announced the initiation of screening for the first patient in an investigator-initiated Phase 4 clinical trial designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of JATENZO ( testosterone undecanoate) oral softgel capsules for the treatment of adult hypogonadal men with chronic kidney disease ( CKD). Clarus expects to announce results from the trial in the first half of 2023.
CEO Dr. Robert Dudley commented, “ We are excited screening has begun for the first patient in this trial of hypogonadal men with CKD. Patients with CKD suffer from a myriad of comorbidities, which often include profound reductions in circulating T. Epidemiological data indicate that an estimated two million men with CKD are clinically hypogonadal and thus may benefit from T replacement therapy. This will be the first of several life cycle management studies for JATENZO designed to maximize the potential for treatment of specific patient populations where T deficiency is a component of their compromised health. Because JATENZO increases T levels and has a positive impact on hemoglobin levels, our hypothesis is that JATENZO, with its flexible oral dosing options, could become an important treatment option for hypogonadal adult men with CKD. These men also may prefer JATENZO over other T treatment modalities because it is administered orally as a softgel capsule. ” Clarus Therapeutics ( NASDAQ: CRXT) News: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/2022/03/16/clarus-nasdaq-crxt-announces-initiation-of-phase-4-clinical-trial/
Wall Street Reporter ( Est. 1843) is the leading financial news provider, focused on giving investors direct access to CEOs of promising, publicly-traded companies, and market experts. www.WallStreetReporter.com. Nothing in this news summary shall be construed as investment advice. Quotes/content may be edited for brevity and context. Full disclaimer, and relevant SEC 17B disclosures here: https: //tinyurl.com/2x4eznd5
Wall Street Reporter's NEXT SUPER STOCK Live! conference is dedicated to featuring select companies that have near-term catalysts in place which can drive transformational growth ( and stock appreciation) in the months ahead. Click here to join next livestream event: https: //www.wallstreetreporter.com/next-superstock-online-investor-conference/
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’ d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’ s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
Stocks fall Thursday ending holiday week lower; Twitter sheds 1.7% after Musk bid | U.S. stock-indexes finished lower Thursday, booking weekly declines in an abbreviated week of trade, with investors digesting quarterly results from major Wall Street banks and economic data, including March retail sales.
Shares of Twitter Inc. ( TWTR) gave up earlier gains to end lower after Tesla Inc. ( TSLA) chief Elon Musk offered to buy the whole company.
For the week, the S & P 500 shed 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, with both booking a second-straight week of losses. The Dow lost 0.8%, recording a third-straight week of losses. U.S. equity markets will be closed on Good Friday.
Stocks finished down Thursday, led lower by technology stocks, as Treasury yields rose sharply and China's COVID lockdowns were extended to other cities beyond Shanghai.
News reports of supply-chain disruptions weighed on shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc. ( AAPL) and other technology companies, including Tesla. Musk also was in the spotlight for his $ 43 million takeover offered for Twitter.
`` The Twitter news was big, and that's causing Tesla shares to have a meaningful decline, '' said Michael Stritch, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management, by phone. `` The tech-complex has seen fallout from Chinese news on lockdowns expanding and facilities closing. ''
The S & P 500's information and technology sector was its worst performer Thursday, down 2.5%, ahead of the long weekend. Tech shares also likely were under pressure from higher Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury note BX: TMUBMUSD10Y up 12 basis points to 2.808%, the highest since December 2018
`` There's also a long weekend and volumes seem to be down, '' Stritch at BMO said, adding that in a jittery environment `` holding a long position over an extended weekend is probably more frowned upon. ''
Earnings also were in focus Thursday after banks including Goldman Sachs ( GS), Morgan Stanley MS, Wells Fargo & Co. WFC, and Citigroup Inc. C reported mixed quarterly results.
`` We are still very early on in the earnings season, '' Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at financial services company Ally, said in a phone interview Thursday.
`` I think my expectation going into earnings season, especially with the banks, was that they were going to set a somewhat cautious tone, '' Bell said. `` They are one of three sectors expected to report an earnings decline in the quarter, and they also have one of the toughest comparisons of all the 11 sectors that make up the S & P 500.
In U.S. economic data Thursday, retail sales rose a mild 0.5% in March and a large part of the increase reflected higher gasoline prices, suggesting inflation is taking a toll on U.S. households. Sales in February were revised up to show a 0.8% increase instead of 0.3%.
Initial jobless claims rose 18,000 to 185,000 in the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims had matched a 54-year low in the prior week.
The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment rose in April to 65.7, a more than 10% increase from March's reading of 59.4 as Americans anticipated gasoline prices to remain steady over the next year.
`` I think that we are starting to see early signs that inflation is peaking, '' Bell said.
New York Federal Reserve President, John Williams, said Thursday that the Fed needed to raise its benchmark interest rate `` expeditiously '' to get inflation under control. Asked about a half-point hike on May 4, Williams said `` that's not a decision we 've made yet '' but added `` I think that's a reasonable option for us because the federal-funds rate is very low. ''
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Wide-Moat Funds Play Defense Well | These funds tend to hold up better than the market in a recession.
The article was published in the March 2022 issue of Morningstar FundInvestor. Download a complimentary copy of FundInvestor by visiting the website.
Will Colgate-Palmolive ( CL) still be around in 10 years? What about Procter & Gamble ( PG), McDonald's ( MCD), Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ), or Microsoft ( MSFT)? It seems a pretty safe bet that all of them will be and likely fairly healthy companies at that.
No wonder these firms have wide Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings from our stock analysts. Moats refer to competitive advantages that would be hard for competitors to match. It would be very hard to replace Microsoft's software on a typical company's computers given how embedded Microsoft is within corporate platforms. Likewise, a competitor couldn't easily build up the brand recognition of McDonald's or steal shelf space from Procter & Gamble. Morningstar's definition says a company with a wide economic moat can fend off competition and earn high returns on capital for more than a decade.
It's a concept that drives Warren Buffett's stock selection. He tends to buy for multiple decades and wants the safety of companies that will endure. These companies have pricing power because of their moats, and they tend to have big cash stakes and healthy balance sheets. They make great defensive plays because they can ride out recessions much better with all those advantages. A company that has lots of debt or is vulnerable to someone building a better mousetrap is much less likely to survive multiple recessions intact.
Fund managers with a heavy concentration of wide-moat stocks usually fall into one of two groups. The first is quality-oriented investors. They often talk about moats and quality in interchangeable terms. They like the stability and defensive characteristics of these companies, and mostly what separates them is how much they will pay for the companies. Most of the funds can be found in the large-blend Morningstar Category, but there are some in value and growth.
The second group focuses on dividend growth. These managers want companies that are likely to raise their dividends consistently. It doesn't always produce a yield greater than the S & P 500's, but income can grow nicely over time. And the companies likely to raise dividends are mostly wide-moat companies. Pricing power naturally leads to dividend growth. But wide-moat companies also tend to have strong balance sheets and respectable rates of growth in sales and earnings. Naturally, they are well-positioned for dividend growth. So, dividend-growth managers may not talk about moats, but they really are in the same place as the quality investors.
We collect moat data on mutual fund portfolios. We calculate the percentage that each portfolio has in wide-moat stocks, narrow-moat stocks, and no-moat stocks. That data can help you to understand how defensive a fund is.
Before we get any further, I 'll note a couple of limitations to moats. First, they are pretty well known and understood, so buying a wide-moat business usually requires you to pay a premium over other names in that industry. That somewhat diminishes return potential.
Second, moats can be less helpful in times of valuation contraction, like the one we 've seen this year. Thus far in 2022, the economy has been growing quite robustly, so the kind of defense that moats provide hasn't been needed. Instead, we're seeing high-multiple stocks cut down because they 've had such a great run. Wide-moat stocks and the funds that love them haven't looked so great, though there have been some exceptions.
To see the impact of moats, I went back to data from the end of 2016. I pulled equity funds from FundInvestor's Morningstar 500 that had 50% or more of their portfolios in wide-moat stocks, and I pulled equity funds with 5% or less in wide-moat stocks. Then I looked ahead to see what the risk, return, and moat profiles are today.
In all, there were 31 funds in 2016 with more than half of their assets in wide-moat stocks. Thirty of them were domestic-stock funds, and one was a foreign-stock fund. Vanguard Dividend Growth ( VDIGX) had the highest percentage of wide-moat stocks at 76%, followed by Janus Henderson Forty ( JACTX) and Jensen Quality Growth ( JENSX).
The ensuing five years contained one bear market and some dramatic rallies for aggressive growth. So, from a wide-moat perspective, the period was a real challenge. Here's how things looked using portfolios dated between December and March:
The funds remained quite moaty. Overall, they averaged 58% of assets in wide moats versus 57% five years ago. This is one thing that's appealing about wide-moat funds: They are consistent in owning wide moats because the types of stocks with wide moats don't change much over time. So, if you bought a wide-moat fund for its defensive characteristics and return potential, it probably still has those qualities.
There were three funds whose moat weightings declined significantly: AMG Yacktman Focused ( YAFFX) and AMG Yacktman ( YACKX) fell to 28% and 30%, respectively. Touchtone Sands Capital Select Growth ( PTSGX) dropped to 33%. The three funds are rather flexible, focused funds that aren't really dedicated to quality. Yacktman, for instance, is mostly interested in value first and tends to own a mix of cyclical lower-moat names alongside higher-quality names.
Vanguard Dividend Growth remained heavily invested in wide moats with 76% of assets under management, and BNY Mellon Appreciation ( DGAGX) had 75% of AUM in wide-moat stocks at the end of February 2022.
The wide-moat-heavy fund group returned a nifty 17.36% annualized through January, on average. That's great, but I wouldn't expect a repeat of returns that rich. ( You may have heard that past returns are no guarantee of future returns.) Those returns landed in the top 40% of peers, on average—a solid showing. On a risk-adjusted basis, they produced a 1.66 Sortino ratio ( a rich man's Sharpe ratio) compared with 1.45 for Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ( VTSAX), which returned 16.08%. Not too shabby.
The group also produced a five-year downside-capture ratio of 96% relative to the S & P 500. That means that funds suffered about 96% of the market’ s losses in downturns. Relative to their category benchmark, downside capture averaged an even better 91.6%. Thus, they look better on a risk-adjusted basis because of those defensive characteristics. On the other hand, the 91.6% tells you that these funds are certainly not impervious to bear markets—they just hold up better in recessions.
Besides Vanguard Dividend Growth and Jensen Quality, Harbor Strategic Growth ( MVSGX), BNY Mellon Appreciation, and Polen Growth ( POLRX) are Morningstar Medalists with heavy doses of wide-moat stocks. Some are in the large-growth category, while others are in large blend, but they all have some common threads running through their investment philosophies.
I found 56 Morningstar 500 stock funds with less than 5% in wide-moat stocks. The list, which is dominated by small- and mid-cap funds, ended the period with just 2%, on average, in wide-moat stocks. Only two funds went on to have double-digit wide-moat weightings, so it would seem the not-moaty funds were consistent, too. And their performance was not so hot. They had returns of 11.6% annualized and a percentile rank of 48%. Not bad, but the Sortino ratio was 0.86, and the downside-capture ratio versus the market was 121%. Ouch. The funds tended to have more exposure to cyclical stocks and thus were hit harder in the coronavirus selloff. However, small caps lagged large caps in the past five years, so it isn't as poor as those figures suggest at first glance.
When we look at downside capture relative to the category index, it's a more respectable 94.5%. Both downside-capture ratios were worse than the wide-moat group, but many of the low-moat funds were in small value or an adjacent part of the Morningstar Style Box. They may have offered better protection against price risk than our wide-moat funds even if, overall, their defenses were not as strong.
There are good low-moat and wide-moat strategies. I wouldn't suggest avoiding low-moat funds entirely, but it helps to see which funds are better at playing defense in recessions. The consistency of moats on the fund and stock levels adds appeal as they represent competitive advantages you can depend on, unlike performance, which is more elusive.
Russel Kinnel has a position in the following securities mentioned above: JENSX. Find out about Morningstar’ s editorial policies.
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Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
Baker’ s U.S. Natural Gas Tally Rises as Drilling Activity Focused in Texas | Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails.
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The U.S. natural gas rig count rose two units to 143 for the week ended Thursday ( April 14), matching a two-rig increase in oil-directed drilling for the period, the latest figures from Baker Hughes Co. ( BKR) show.
The combined U.S. rig count climbed to 693 for the week, up 254 units from its year-earlier total of 439. Land drilling increased by five rigs, partially offset by the departure of one rig from inland waters. The Gulf of Mexico count held steady at 12 rigs.
[ Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight. ]
Five directional rigs were added, with total vertical rigs declining by one, according to the BKR numbers, which are based in part on data from Enverus.
In Canada, four oil-directed rigs and four natural gas-directed rigs exited during the week, dropping the Canadian count eight units to 103. That’ s up from 56 in the year-earlier period.
Broken down by major drilling region, the Eagle Ford Shale led with an increase of three rigs, raising its count to 60, versus 33 in the year-ago period. The Permian Basin added two rigs for the period, while the Barnett Shale and Cana Woodford each added one rig to their respective totals.
Counting by state, Texas gained four rigs week/week, raising its total to 346. West Virginia added two rigs, offsetting a two-rig decline in Pennsylvania. Oklahoma and Alaska added one rig each, while Louisiana and New Mexico each dropped one rig week/week, the BKR data show.
U.S. crude oil production for the week ended April 8 held even with the prior week at 11.8 million b/d — after hovering around 11.6 million b/d through most of February and March, the Energy Information Administration ( EIA) said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Output, however, remains more than 1 million b/d below pre-pandemic highs and may struggle to climb in the near term, given mounting demand uncertainty caused by geopolitical strife and a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic.
Total U.S. petroleum demand for the latest EIA period declined 5% week/week, led lower by lighter consumption of distillate fuel and other oils, EIA said.
© 2022 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
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Massive price increases spurred by spring snow storms and pipeline maintenance lifted spot gas prices during the April 11-14 trading period, which covered gas flows through Tuesday because of the Good Friday holiday. NGI’ s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 57.0 cents to $ 5.855/MMBtu. Futures continued to surge as well, with a lack of sustained…
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Activity Ramps Up in Permian, Eagle Ford as U.S. Drilling Total Rises | Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails.
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Including upticks in drilling activity in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, the U.S. rig count ratcheted higher during the week ending Thursday ( April 14), climbing four units to 693, according to the latest tally from Baker Hughes Co. ( BKR).
Two oil-directed rigs and two natural gas-directed rigs were added in the United States for the period, putting the combined U.S. count 254 units ahead of its year-earlier total of 439.
Land drilling increased by five rigs, partially offset by the departure of one rig from inland waters. The Gulf of Mexico count held steady at 12 rigs.
[ Want today’ s Henry Hub, Houston Ship Channel and Chicago Citygate prices? Check out NGI’ s daily natural gas price snapshot now. ]
Five directional rigs were added, with total vertical rigs declining by one, according to the BKR numbers, which are based in part on data from Enverus.
In Canada, four oil-directed rigs and four natural gas-directed rigs exited during the week, dropping the Canadian count eight units to 103. That’ s up from 56 in the year-earlier period.
Broken down by major drilling region, the Eagle Ford led with an increase of three rigs, raising its count to 60, versus 33 in the year-ago period. The Permian added two rigs for the period, while the Barnett Shale and Cana Woodford each added one rig to their respective totals.
Counting by state, Texas gained four rigs week/week, raising its total to 346. West Virginia added two rigs, offsetting a two-rig decline in Pennsylvania. Oklahoma and Alaska added one rig each, while Louisiana and New Mexico each dropped one rig week/week, the BKR data show.
U.S. crude oil production for the week ended April 8 held even with the prior week at 11.8 million b/d — after hovering around 11.6 million b/d through most of February and March, the Energy Information Administration ( EIA) said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
Output, however, remains more than 1 million b/d below pre-pandemic highs and may struggle to climb in the near term, given mounting demand uncertainty caused by geopolitical strife and a resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic.
Total U.S. petroleum demand for the latest EIA period declined 5% week/week, led lower by lighter consumption of distillate fuel and other oils, EIA said.
© 2022 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
ISSN © 2577-9877 | ISSN © 2158-8023 |
Related topics: Baker Hughes Drilling Rig Count
@ JeremiahShelor
email jeremiah.shelor @ naturalgasintel.com
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Massive price increases spurred by spring snow storms and pipeline maintenance lifted spot gas prices during the April 11-14 trading period, which covered gas flows through Tuesday because of the Good Friday holiday. NGI’ s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 57.0 cents to $ 5.855/MMBtu. Futures continued to surge as well, with a lack of sustained…
Markets
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China PBOC Keeps Key Policy Interest Rates Unchanged in Surprise Move | BEIJING -- China's central bank kept its key policy interest rates unchanged on Friday, going against market expectations of a rate cut, to shore up the cooling economic growth amid the flare-up of Covid-19 outbreaks.
The People's Bank of China said in a brief statement that it injected 150 billion yuan ( $ 23.5 billion) of liquidity via its medium-term lending facility which will charge banks an interest rate of 2.85%. The rate was the same as the central bank's last operation.
The PBOC also injected CNY10 billion through seven-day reverse repurchase agreements with a borrowing cost of 2.1%, also unchanged from its last operation.
Economists have anticipated the central bank to lower its key policy rates to give a boost to the world's second largest economy, which has been battered by the outbreaks of the Omicron Covid-19 variant. China's benchmark lending rate -- the loan prime rate -- is priced based on the MLF interest rate.
The absence of a rate cut Friday, however, now increases the chances of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks, which could unleash billions of dollars of liquidity into the financial system.
China's Premier Li Keqiang said in a meeting Wednesday that China will use reserve requirement ratios cuts and other monetary tools to provide support for the nation's struggling businesses, which have been affected by the government's draconian virus-prevention measures.
The two previous RRR cuts in July and December last year came days after a similar signal from Premier Li.
Write to Singapore Editors at singaporeeditors @ dowjones.com
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Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’ s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
Analyst warns on Big Six profits after JPMorgan's wake-up call | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. surprised Wall Street Wednesday by setting aside nearly US $ 1 billion for potential loan losses in its fiscal first quarter. That move also caught the eye of a Canadian banks analyst, who was left wondering whether profit expectations for those institutions are out of whack.
`` In short, we believe the sector still has downside risk heading into [ fiscal second-quarter ] earnings in late May, '' wrote Gabriel Dechaine, who covers the banks for National Bank of Canada Financial Markets, in a report to clients Wednesday night.
`` In the current context of geopolitical uncertainty and the increased probability of a recession ( or stagflation), we believe banks may be compelled to take a more conservative stance with regard to the pace of performing [ allowances for credit losses ] releases. ''
By Dechaine’ s math, Canada's big banks set aside close to $ 13 billion early in the pandemic as they braced for a feared tidal wave of loan losses. But that onslaught of bad loans never materialized as government support programs and other extraordinary efforts helped insulate Canada's economy from an even worse fate as COVID-19 took hold.
As COVID gradually loosened its grip on the economy, the banks benefitted handsomely as they freed up billions of dollars that had been set aside.
But JPMorgan's decision to book US $ 902 million in reserves in its latest quarter, reducing per-share profit by US $ 0.23, gave Dechaine pause. Indeed, the Wall Street giant pointed to macro factors ( `` downside risks due to high inflation and the war in Ukraine, '' it said in a release) that Canada's banks aren't immune to.
Just last month, Dechaine cut his estimate for the sector-wide release of loan-loss provisions by 40 per cent. Now, however, he's taking an even more cautious view.
`` We can not rule out the possibility of banks reversing course entirely and resuming the trend of additions to the performing [ allowances for credit losses ], '' he stated in his latest report.
Dechaine said Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, and Toronto-Dominion Bank are his top candidates to retain their provisions based on their footprints outside of Canada.
Despite the murky outlook for credit quality, Dechaine noted that consensus profit estimates for the Big Six have been steady. Though he pointed out his outlook for earnings per share are below the broader view among his peers.
`` With the world having become much more unpredictable and with clear signs of business deterioration in capital markets segments, you’ d think consensus expectations would have become much more downcast, '' he wrote.
Dechaine has outperform ( the equivalent of a buy) recommendations on Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. He has sector perform ( the equivalent of hold) ratings on TD, BMO, and Scotia. He doesn't have a rating on National.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
China Home Prices Fall at Slower Pace Amid Easing Measures | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Residential buildings in the Jinshan district of Shanghai. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s home prices fell at a slower pace in March after authorities took further steps to prevent a worsening of a prolonged downturn in the real estate industry.
New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slipped 0.07% last month from February when they dropped 0.13%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Friday. Values in the secondary market declined 0.19%, the slowest pace in six months.
The narrower fall offers a rare glimmer of hope to the embattled property sector, which has been hit by a cash crisis among developers following a clampdown on leverage and more recently the country’ s largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years. The Chinese government has pledged more fiscal and monetary stimulus to boost the economy, including a vow to prevent a “ disorderly collapse ” in the property market.
“ A few larger cities are getting back onto a normal track as pent-up demand is gradually being released, ” said Chen Wenjing, associate research director at China Index Holdings. “ However, the market recovery still depends on the control of the Covid outbreak and further property policy support. ”
The State Council, China’ s cabinet, hinted strongly on Wednesday of a reserve requirement ratio cut, which would free up more cash for lenders. Still, the central bank left a key policy rate unchanged on Friday, disappointing most economists who had expected a reduction to bolster the economy amid the worsening Covid outbreak.
The People’ s Bank of China has been guiding banks to step up lending since early this year and more cities have relaxed home purchase and mortgage rules, as authorities seek to put a floor under growth ahead of a political reshuffle later in the year.
More than 60 municipal authorities loosened housing regulations in the first quarter. They include four provincial capital cities that abandoned signature restrictions on how many residences households can own and how long they should hold properties before selling them.
Banks in more than 100 cities lowered mortgage rates by 20 to 60 basis points since March, head of the central bank’ s financial market department Zou Lan said at a Thursday briefing. There was a pickup in medium- and long-term loans to households in March, which are a proxy for mortgages, though the total was still lower than a year earlier.
The March data doesn’ t show the potential impact of an extensive lockdown spreading from the country’ s financial hub Shanghai. Elsewhere, the southern metropolis of Guangzhou is implementing a series of restrictions after local authorities warned that Covid found last week could be the tip of the iceberg.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
Home-Price Drop Slows, Surprise Rate Decision: Evergrande Update | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
People's Bank of China headquarters in Beijing. Photographer: Giulia Marchi/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s home prices dropped at a slower pace in March after authorities took further steps to arrest a decline in the real estate industry, offering a rare glimmer of hope to the distressed sector.
Meanwhile, China’ s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged, disappointing most economists who had expected a decrease to support the economy amid a worsening Covid outbreak. It kept the rate on its one-year policy loans at 2.85% on Friday, and also refrained from injecting extra liquidity into the financial system.
China Central Bank Surprises With Rate Decision ( 10:01 a.m. HK)
China’ s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged, disappointing most economists who had expected a reduction to bolster the economy amid a worsening Covid outbreak.
The People’ s Bank of China kept the rate on its one-year policy loans at 2.85% on Friday. Sixteen of the 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a reduction of 5-10 basis points, with the rest expecting no change.
China Home Price Drop Slows in March ( 9:57 a.m. HK)
China’ s home prices fell at a slower pace in March after authorities took further steps to prevent a worsening of a prolonged downturn in the real estate industry.
New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slipped 0.07% last month from February when they dropped 0.13%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Friday. Values in the secondary market declined 0.19%, the slowest pace in six months.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
China’ s Key Economic Data to Show Price Paid for Covid Zero | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Nearly-empty roads during a lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai. Photogorapher: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- China is due to publish key economic growth data for the past quarter that may look stable on first glance, yet should give clues about the pain that lies ahead as stiff Covid controls hinder consumption and disrupt production.
The statistics bureau will publish first-quarter gross domestic product figures Monday as well as monthly activity indicators for March. The latter will be closely watched to assess the damage of China’ s Covid Zero approach, which has led authorities to lock down millions of people in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities, cut factory output and snarled supply chains.
The State Council, China’ s cabinet, has promised more monetary and fiscal support, although the central bank didn’ t cut policy interest rates on Friday as expected and has yet to boost stimulus by lowering the reserve requirement ratio.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict GDP likely rose 4.3% in the first quarter from a year earlier, up from 4% in the previous three months. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, a better measure of economic momentum, growth likely slowed to 0.7% from 1.6% in the fourth quarter.
Monthly data for production, consumption and property investment probably weakened across the board in March, reversing the trend of official data in January-February, which beat expectations. Infrastructure investment was likely a rare bright spot last month as local governments accelerated bond sales to fund projects.
Consumption has taken a big knock as Covid controls restricted travel, curbed spending on eating out and at cinemas, reduced appetite for car purchases and discouraged online shopping due to logistics problems. National holiday expenditure figures indicate consumer confidence has remained sluggish this month.
Retail sales likely fell 3% in March from a year ago, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey, the first contraction since July 2020. The comparison base last year was high, while the negative impact from the ongoing Covid wave has shown “ no clear signs of abating soon, ” Nomura Holdings Inc. analysts including Lu Ting wrote in a note.
In another sign of disruptions caused by the lockdowns, China’ s imports unexpectedly fell in March, with purchases of edible vegetable oils and meat posting the steepest declines in the first quarter compared to a year earlier.
Growth in fixed-asset investment is predicted to slow to 8.4% year-on-year in the first three months of 2022, according to the survey, after jumping 12.2% in January-February.
The weak real-estate market probably remained a drag. A slump in housing sales deepened in March even though more cities eased home-buying rules, with sales in the top 50 cities tumbling for a third straight month. The growth in property development investment is seen dwindling to 1.2% in January-March, the lowest since what was logged for the first six months of 2020.
Infrastructure investment is expected to be robust as the effects of fiscal stimulus kick in, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. wrote in notes last week. Nomura analysts, however, cautioned that the Covid outbreak may have caused some construction projects to halt, slowing investment.
Some 1.25 trillion yuan ( $ 196 billion) of special local government bonds were sold by the end of March, Deputy Finance Minister Xu Hongcai said this week, equivalent to 34% of the quota for this year. The use of the funds raised was accelerated, with more than 852 billion yuan having been passed over to entities undertaking relevant projects, he added.
Industrial production likely eased in the month as factories in pandemic-stricken areas were shuttered, workers were confined to their homes and supply chains were disrupted because of congestion at ports.
Major technology and manufacturing hub Shenzhen and auto manufacturing base Jilin province were locked down last month, while mass testing was carried out in the city of Dongguan, a key city for the production of shoes, toys and textiles. Businesses said they faced difficulty buying raw materials, or suffered extended delivery times due to virus control measures.
While the Covid damage to factories was less severe than for consumption, economists still expect factory output growth to weaken to 4.0% in March from 7.5% in the first two months of the year. A sub-index of the official purchasing managers’ index survey showed output contracted in March for the first time since last November, when a delta virus outbreak set off by a cluster in Nanjing hit the economy.
The growth outlook hinges largely on how quickly China can bring the outbreaks under control and how much Beijing is willing to sacrifice its economic growth to defend the Covid Zero policy. While authorities have recently dialed up the rhetoric on adding fiscal and monetary stimulus to support growth, a lack of demand from businesses to expand and consumers to spend will likely make the policies less effective than planned.
Economists expect growth to slow to 5% this year, below the government’ s target of around 5.5%. Some banks, like Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs predict growth will weaken to as low as 4.5%.
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
Valneva's Covid-19 Vaccine Gets Its First Approval in UK | Valneva SE's coronavirus vaccine has been granted regulatory approval by the U.K.'s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, the government said Thursday.
The U.K.'s medicines regulator is the first in the world to approve the French biotech company's shot.
With this type of vaccine, the virus is grown in a lab and made completely inactive so that it can't infect cells or replicate in the body but can still trigger an immune response, a process that is widely used in flu and polio vaccines, the U.K. government said.
`` Our approval of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Valneva today follows a rigorous review of the safety, quality and effectiveness of this vaccine, and expert advice from the government's independent scientific advisory body, the Commission on Human Medicines, '' MHRA Chief Executive Dr. June Raine said.
Valneva shares were halted on the Paris stock market on Thursday.
Write to Maitane Sardon at maitane.sardon @ wsj.com
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
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We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
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To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’ s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
Tesla Staring Down 40,000 Lost EVs Due to Shanghai Lockdown | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
The Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai., Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- For the first time, Tesla Inc. has hit a real production snag in China.
The electric carmaker’ s Shanghai plant, its first outside the U.S., has had output suspended for almost three weeks due to city-wide lockdowns in China’ s financial heart. At a run rate of about 2,100 cars a day, that’ s around 39,900 units lost since the lines fell silent on March 28.
There are few signs as to when the situation might change. The city of 25 million is posting record Covid-19 cases almost daily and much of the city remains under restrictions of movements with ongoing disruptions to food and manufacturing supply chains.
All Chinese automakers may have to halt production in May if shutdowns persist in the Shanghai area, according to He Xiaopeng, chief executive officer of electric-vehicle firm Xpeng Inc. The lockdown, now in its third week, has battered the economy and stalled production, prompting Premier Li Keqiang to warn about economic-growth risks multiple times.
“ If supply chain companies could not find a way to resume operation and production, it’ s likely all Chinese OEMs may have to suspend production in May, ” He posted on his personal WeChat and Weibo accounts Thursday evening, referring to automakers.
“ Our base case estimate for reopening is the first week in May, ” Junheng Li, founder and CEO of JL Warren Capital, an equity-research firm focused on Chinese companies, said of Tesla. Under that scenario, she estimated that some 84,000 units may be lost.
Li said Tesla’ s production losses may be even steeper if surrounding cities were to be locked down too, potentially impacting the supply of auto parts to the factory. The plant’ s reopening may also be done in sequenced stages and capacity after any resumption will “ depend on the supply of components Tesla can get. ”
Austin, Texas-based Tesla made 305,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter globally, so a loss of around 40,000 cars is about 13% of that. Its Shanghai factory on the eastern outskirts of the city makes the Model 3 and the Model Y for both export and domestic consumption.
The plant typically produces roughly 2,000 cars every day, based on losses seen during the first quarter, according to an estimate earlier this month by Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc.
Shanghai’ s lockdown forced Tesla to halt production in late March. The carmaker has begun canvassing some staff to see whether it’ s possible to operate under a so-called closed loop system, were they able to leave their apartments, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
Some other big manufacturers including Volkswagen AG and Robert Bosch GmbH have moved to a version of the loop system, whereby workers live on-site and are tested regularly. It hasn’ t particularly worked out for VW in Shanghai, with locked-in workers unable to produce cars anyway due to a lack of parts coming into the factory.
“ China’ s insistence on Zero Covid has caused, and will cause, more multinationals to rethink their strategies in China, ” Li said. “ As long as Covid mutations continue, and China doesn’ t give up on Covid-Zero, I believe that they will cut or halt their expansion plans in the country, ” she said, with reference to companies in general rather than Tesla specifically.
Tesla’ s Shanghai factory churned out 182,174 vehicles in the first quarter, China Passenger Car Association data show. Since the production lines first fired up in late 2019, this most recent production hiatus has been the longest -- worse than when Covid first hit in 2020 and much worse than the odd chip shortage that has forced two- or three-day suspensions in past months.
The factory usually runs for six or seven days a week over three shifts, depending on maintenance arrangements. And ramping production back up from a shutdown isn’ t an instant process.
This U.S. legislation is a game changer: Curaleaf executive chairman
U.S. democratic senators to unveil draft cannabis reform bill on Wednesday: Report | general |
RNC withdraws from ‘ biased’ Commission on Presidential Debates | By unanimous vote, the Republican National Committee is withdrawing from the Commission on Presidential Debates over allegations that the organization that has been sponsoring the general-election debates since 1988 is “ biased. ”
“ Today, the RNC voted to withdraw from the biased CPD, ” RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel tweeted.
“ We are going to find newer, better debate platforms to ensure that future nominees are not forced to go through the biased CPD in order to make their case to the American people. ”
The Commission on Presidential Debates is a nonprofit established in 1987 under the joint sponsorship of the Republican and Democratic parties in the U. S.
Its mis
sion has been “ to ensure, for the benefit of the American electorate, that general election debates between or among the leading candidates for the offices of President and Vice President of the United States are a permanent part of the electoral process. ” And the CPD has been producing the general election debates every four years ever since, which has included research and educational activities relating to the debates.
But former President Donald Trump’ s re-election campaign complained about many of the CPD’ s decisions during the 2020 election, including: the moderators selected; deciding to
hold the second debate virtually during the COVID-19 pandemic
; and
muting microphones during the final debate
that year to prevent one candidate from talking over another.
So the GOP has been threatening to break away from the commission for several months now. In January, for example, there were reports that the RNC planned to require presidential candidates seeking the party’ s nomination to
sign a pledge saying they wouldn’ t take part in any debates sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates.
RNC chairwoman McDaniel’ s statement on Thursday also criticized the commission for not enacting “ simple and commonsense reforms to help ensure fair debates including hosting debates before voting begins and selecting moderators who have never worked for candidates on the debate stage. ”
Here’ s her statement in full:
“ Debates are an important part of the democratic process, and the RNC is committed to free and fair debates. The Commission on Presidential Debates is biased and has refused to enact simple and commonsense reforms to help ensure fair debates including hosting debates before voting begins and selecting moderators who have never worked for candidates on the debate stage.
“ Today, the RNC voted to withdraw from the biased CPD, and we are going to find newer, better debate platforms to ensure that future nominees are not forced to go through the biased CPD in order to make their case to the American people. ”
This “ presidential debates, ” “ The RNC ” and “ Commission ” to trend on Twitter on Thursday afternoon.
“ The GOP is not walking away from debates, ” the Republican Party’ s official Twitter account posted. “ We are walking away from the Commission on Presidential Debates. ” | business |
FTSE 100 Falls, Gains Elsewhere in Europe | The FTSE 100 falls 0.3% to 7560 points even as other European stocks indices rise following gains in Asia and on Wall Street. `` A signal of possible stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to avert an economic slowdown following new Covid-related lockdowns led to a positive session in Asia, which has failed to wash through to the U.K. in early exchanges, '' Interactive Investor analyst Richard Hunter says in a note. The FTSE 100 remains in the relatively isolated position of remaining positive so far this year, having added 2.3% in the year to date, supported by its exposure to defensive stocks, a generous average dividend yield and an ample presence of oil and mining stocks, he says. ( renae.dyer @ wsj.com)
Ashmore Group PLC said Thursday that its assets under management fell 10% over the third quarter of the fiscal year.
Ninety One PLC said Thursday that assets under management for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 increased significantly from a year earlier.
National Grid PLC said Thursday that it anticipates that fiscal 2022 underlying earnings per share will be modestly higher than previous guidance, and expects to complete the sale of its Rhode Island unit in the first quarter.
Halma PLC said Thursday that it has acquired underwater robots manufacturer Deep Trekker Inc. for 60 million Canadian dollars ( $ 47.8 million) on a cash and debt free basis.
Brooks Macdonald Group PLC said Thursday that funds under management fell over the third quarter of fiscal 2022, dragged by the war in Ukraine.
Smiths Group PLC said Thursday that Chief Financial Officer John Shipsey is stepping down from the role by mutual agreement on April 29, and that it has appointed Clare Scherrer as his replacement.
Mediclinic International PLC said on Thursday that it expects to report a rise in revenue for fiscal 2022, and that it sees positive momentum in client activity driving revenue growth and margins in the year ahead.
Wizz Air Holdings PLC said Thursday that it expects to report a widened net loss for fiscal 2022, and that it is starting to see a recovery taking shape as it moves closer to the summer season.
Dunelm Group PLC said Thursday that total sales increased in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, adding that customers responded well to its winter sale despite a hit in the final three weeks of the quarter due to the Omicron wave of the coronavirus.
Hays PLC said Thursday that net fees rose 32% on a like-for-like basis in the third quarter of fiscal 2022 to a record high, and reiterated its full-year operating profit guidance.
Polar Capital Holdings PLC said Thursday that assets under management increased in fiscal 2022 because of a combination of outperformance, net inflows and market improvement.
React Group Plans GBP5.5 Mln Share Placing to Support Acquisitions
React Group PLC said Thursday it intends to raise 5.5 million pounds ( $ 7.2 million) in a share placing, to support its acquisition growth strategy and for general working capital.
finnCap Group PLC said Thursday that revenue for fiscal 2022 is expected to have increased, with adjusted pretax profit in line with expectations.
Norcros PLC said Thursday that it expects to report a rise in fiscal 2022 revenue, and that it has secured a 130 million-pound ( $ 170.5 million) loan.
Renold PLC said Thursday that revenue for fiscal 2022 increased, as the momentum in order intake and turnover of the first half continued into the second half of the financial year.
Shares in Oilex Ltd. fell Thursday after the company said it intends to raise additional funds next month as a result of higher-than-expected re-fracking costs and a delay to the start up of gas production at the Cambay gas field in India.
0804 GMT - Bunzl emerged a postpandemic winner after its shares became extremely cheap during the coronavirus pandemic's early stages, Berenberg says. Analysts at Berenberg view the distribution-and-outsourcing company as a relative inflation winner as it passes on price increases and extracts small profit gains from base material and product price inflation, with shares rising accordingly by around 26% since Berenberg's last stock rating upgrade in July. `` The shares have now reached the opposite extreme in terms of market-relative valuation, and with the intensity of inflationary profit tailwinds likely to moderate from here, we see little more room for upside, '' the German brokerage says. Berenberg downgrades its rating on the stock to hold from buy, and raises its target price to 2,950 pence from 2,750 pence. ( anthony.orunagoriainoff @ dowjones.com)
Contact: London NewsPlus; paul.larkins @ wsj.com
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’ d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’ s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process. | business |
mRNA vaccination found to reduce COVID-19 infectious viral load | New research published in Nature Medicine has found COVID-19 vaccination can reduce a person’ s infectious viral load. The study compared the infectiousness of different SARS-CoV-2 variants between vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects.
We know the virus that causes COVID-19 initially takes hold in a person’ s upper respiratory tract. In the early days of infection the virus rapidly replicates and this is the point when a person is most infectious.
The volume of virus in a person’ s upper respiratory tract is generally referred to as a viral load. A high viral load is believed to be associated with greater infectiousness, and researchers have two main ways of measuring the volume of that viral load. The first, and most commonly used method, comes from tracking a specific PCR ( polymerase chain reaction) testing metric.
A PCR test works by amplifying copies of the virus’ genetic material. Each cycle of the test basically doubles the genetic material present in the individual sample. Usually, if no trace of virus has been found after 30 to 40 cycles a PCR test is reported as negative.
The CT ( cycle threshold) value is a measure of how many times the test cycles before finding viral genetic material. A low number means there was plenty of viral material in the original swab sample, while a higher CT value means the opposite.
So CT values are often used to determine the viral load of a COVID-19 patient, and a high viral load is generally considered to correlate with the contagiousness of a given patient at that point in time. However, research linking PCR measured viral loads and transmission has been inconsistent. Isabella Eckerle, lead researcher on the new study, says measuring viral load this way is not a good indication of how infectious that specific viral load is.
“ [ A PCR ] test is very effective in identifying infected people, but does not indicate whether they are infectious, that is, capable of transmitting the virus to other people, '' explained Eckerle. `` However, the notion of contagiousness is essential for deciding on collective prevention measures, such as periods of isolation. ''
The second way of measuring the infectiousness in a given viral sample is by isolating that virus in cell cultures and watching how rapidly it replicates. This method has been used for many years as a good measure for viral infectiousness, but it hasn’ t been frequently deployed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Current safety measures require this kind of test with SARS-CoV-2 to be conducted in a biosafety level 3 laboratory. Not an easy process to routinely perform.
The new research set out to perform these tests on several hundred samples of SARS-CoV-2 including three different variants ( the original strain, Delta and Omicron) spanning both unvaccinated and vaccinated infections.
The researchers first found there was very little correlation between viral load as measured by PCR CT value and infectious viral load measured from cell cultures. The researchers also found age and sex played no part in influencing a person’ s infectious viral load.
“ Next, we have investigated the effect of vaccination ( 2 doses mRNA) on infectious viral load, ” Eckerle reported on Twitter. “ In vaccinated individuals with a Delta breakthrough infection, infectious virus was almost 5-fold lower & was cleared more rapidly than in the unvaccinated with Delta. ”
Next, we have investigated the effect of # vaccination ( 2 doses mRNA) on infectious viral load: In vaccinated individuals with a Delta breakthrough infection, infectious virus was almost 5-fold lower & was cleared more rapidly than in the unvaccinated with Delta 4/ pic.twitter.com/JcfaRuc1Ao
The results were quite different when the researchers looked at infectious viral loads in patients with the Omicron variant. With Omicron, those two-dose vaccinated patients were found to have similar infectious viral loads to unvaccinated patients. But a big drop in infectious viral load came with the third vaccine dose. This matches a large volume of research finding a third vaccine dose is crucial in protecting against the Omicron variant.
“ This is immunologically consistent: many vaccines require 3 doses spaced several months apart to induce a sustained immune response, such as that against Hepatitis B virus, '' explained Eckerle.
One of the more unexpected findings in the new study was the observation that, overall, it seems the Omicron variant generated lower levels of infectious viral load compared to the Delta variant. Considering we know Omicron to be significantly more transmissible than previous SARS-CoC-2 variants the researchers conclude it is still unclear exactly what mechanism is behind the variant's increased transmissibility.
“ We still don't know, but our data suggest that other infectious mechanisms are at play, '' said study co-author Pauline Vetter. `` It is now clear that the mutations of Omicron strongly differentiate it from other variants, allowing it to partially escape the vaccine, and diminish the effectiveness of some antiviral treatments used so far. ''
While the study can not explicitly associate real-world transmissibility to this cell cultured metric of infectious viral load, the findings do offer insights into how vaccination affects infectious viral load. Eckerle hopes the study influences public health decisions as she believes the findings do suggest, even in the face of Omicron, vaccination is likely an important factor in reducing rates of transmission.
“ … vaccination can reduce infectious viral load, likely leading to lower onward transmission, ” Eckerle said on Twitter. “ These findings underscore the benefit of vaccination on SARSCoV2 circulation beyond individual protection from severe disease. ”
The new study was published in the journal Nature Medicine.
Source: University of Geneva | science |
U.S. retail sales rise in March, but high gas prices and inflation take a big bite | The numbers:
Sales at U.S. retailers rose a mild 0.5% in March and a large part of the increase reflected higher gasoline prices, suggesting inflation is taking a toll on U.S. households.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% advance.
If gas stations and auto dealers are set aside, retail sales rose an even smaller 0.2% last month.
Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. Americans are still buying lots of goods and services and spending is still well above pre-pandemic levels, but in many cases consumers are simply paying more money.
The cost of living jumped 1.2% in March
, according to the consumer price index. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell sharply in March.
One bit of good news: Sales in February were revised up to show a 0.8% increase instead of 0.3%,
the government reported Thursday
.
U.S. retail sales in March
+0.5%
Autos & parts
-1.9%
Home furnishings
0.7%
Electronics & appliances
3.3%
Home & garden centers
0.5%
Food & beverages
1%
Health & personal care
-0.3%
Gasoline stations
8.9%
Clothing
2.6%
Sporting goods & hobbies
3.3%
General stores
5.4%
Miscellaneous stores
0.8%
Internet ( nonstore) retailers
-6.4%
Bars & restaurants
1%
Big picture:
High inflation is outstripping wage gains for workers
and pinching households budgets. Americans are thinking twice about what they buy and how much and seeking out cheaper alternatives.
Yet level of spending is still sufficient to keep the economy growing, especially with Americans feeling secure in their jobs. They say work is easy to find.
The Federal Reserve is moving to raise interest rates, however, in an effort to tame runaway inflation. Higher rates could eventually act as a drag on spending and the broader U.S. economy.
Key details:
Gas stations posted an 8.9% increase in sales last month — the biggest gain in a year — but that’ s not a good thing for households or the economy. Higher gas prices squeeze families and leave them less money to spend on other goods and services.
Gas prices were rising sharply well before the war in Ukraine, but the conflict is likely to keep the cost of oil high for the foreseeable future.
Sales at auto dealers sank 1.9%. Auto sales have been up and down because of ongoing shortages of new vehicles. Auto sales account for about one-fifth of overall retail spending.
The March retail sales report might not offer much new insight into the growth of the economy. Easter occurred much later than usual, for one thing, and shifted some spending that normally would have taken place in March into April.
Nor does the report reveal much about spending on the much larger category of services.
The 1% in sales at restaurants, however, was a good sign. Eating out is one of the first things Americans cut back on when they lose confidence in the economy.
There were a few other good signs in the report. Sales at electronics stores such as Best Buy
BBY,
-1.46%
jumped 3.3% — almost triple the rate of inflation. Consumers also spent a lot more on other discretionary goods such as clothes and hobby items.
Still, it’ s likely that higher gas and grocery prices are siphoning off some spending on discretionary items.
One oddity: Sales at internet retailers sank a surprising 6.4%. Internet sales are still rising overall, but they have been up and down since last fall. Some analysts say it reflects a return to in-store shopping with Covid cases at very low levels.
Looking ahead:
“ The boost from fiscal stimulus is petering out, interest rates on credit cards, car loans, and mortgages are rising, and the cost of gas has surged after Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine, ” said chief economist Bill Adams of Comerica. “ These issues are collectively a meaningful headwind to consumer spending in 2022. ”
Market reaction:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.33%
rose, but S & P 500
SPX,
-1.21%
,
fell in Thursday trades. | business |
Where oil stands 2 years after its historic drop below zero dollars a barrel | Nearly two years have passed since U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil settled below zero dollars a barrel. But the shock from the one-day plunge lives on, even as prices recovered to a year-to-date peak above $ 130 a barrel—the highest in nearly 14 years.
Analysts expect prices to mostly hold above the $ 100 mark, with the market unlikely to get much help from oil producers who are concerned about another potentially significant decline in prices. They also don’ t want to be stuck with too much supply in the event of a drop in demand.
“ We should remember that both oil’ s sharp drop to negative prices and its rise to 14-year highs are largely the result of the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, ” says Matthew Sherwood, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. And no one expected the world to potentially be on the “ precipice of a global war, with Russia’ s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ” sending oil well above $ 100, he says.
On April 20, 2020, WTI crude
CL.1,
+2.20%
CLK22,
+2.20%
CL00,
+2.20%
saw its front month settle at a
negative $ 37.63 a barrel
, down 306% for the session. That marked the lowest futures finish and biggest one-day price plunge on record.
Prices then saw a
mostly steady climb to a peak intraday level
so far this year at $ 130.50 on March 7—the highest since July 2008. That represents a nearly 447% climb from the negative price settlement almost two years ago.
What the market saw in 2020 was “ unique, ” and it was an event “ no one could have ever anticipated, ” says Scott Sheridan, market expert and CEO of online brokerage tastyworks, which is part of IG Group
IGG,
+0.73%
.
2-year chart of front-month WTI oil prices, as of April 14, 2022.
FactSet
Even so, from a supply and demand perspective, the range of the price moves “ actually makes sense when taken in the context of world events, ” he says. “ It’ s just been a volatile couple of years. ”
Oil prices: zero to $ 100
An economic recovery from the pandemic led to a massive demand shock, and it took “ unprecedented cooperation ” by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to agree to sharp production cuts in 2020, says the EIU’ s Sherwood. The cuts and a slow and steady increase in production since last year put a floor under oil prices, while demand recovered faster than output. That led the market to a supply deficit in 2021, he says.
The deficit largely remains this year, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, says Sherwood, as Western nations have limited their purchases of Russian oil.
Elevated food prices and sanctions against Russia may place additional pressure on OPEC to raise oil supplies, says Tammy Da Costa, analyst at DailyFX. But OPEC members have so far been unable to lift output enough to meet rising targets.
The U.S. and its allies in the International Energy Agency plan to release 240 million barrels from emergency oil reserves over a six-month period, which may limit the impact of sanctions on Russian oil in the short run, says Da Costa.
Read:
What Biden’ s historic decision to release oil reserves means for the market
However, “ an extension of the war and rapidly depleting reserves ” will likely be the key oil driver for the rest of the year, unless producers can make up the shortfall and compensate for rising demand, she says.
That’ s a challenge given that volatility over the past two years has made producers wary of sudden price moves.
Producers and traders are “ more cautious, given the downside risks, ” says Sherwood. That’ s likely to be the case for some time, or “ until producers are confident that prices will remain elevated more permanently, ” he says. Meanwhile, growth opportunities are more limited “ given that in many regions, there are few commercially attractive deposits left to exploit. ”
Looking ahead, Sherwood expects WTI oil to remain above $ 100 as long as war rages in Ukraine, but with room for dips below that mark.
Prices likely already hit their peak this year, but spikes above $ 130 are still a real possibility, given uncertainty in the oil market and global economy, he says. | business |
China Central Bank Unexpectedly Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- China’ s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged, disappointing most economists who had expected a reduction to bolster the economy amid a worsening Covid outbreak.
The People’ s Bank of China kept the rate on its one-year policy loans at 2.85% on Friday. Sixteen of the 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a reduction of 5-10 basis points, with the rest expecting no change.
The PBOC also refrained from injecting extra liquidity into the financial system, opting instead to roll over the 150 billion yuan ( $ 23.5 billion) of loans maturing in the medium-term lending facility.
China’ s 10-year government bond yield rose 2 basis points to 2.77% after the announcement, while the offshore yuan was steady at 6.3907 per dollar. The benchmark CSI 300 Index fell as much as 0.8% in early trading after rallying 1.3% on Thursday amid expectations of a rate cut. The liquidity-sensitive ChiNext Index opened 0.9% lower after closing little changed on Thursday.
Growth projections for China have been steadily downgraded this year as Covid lockdowns spread, with economists now expecting economic expansion of 5% in 2022, below the government’ s target of around 5.5%. Top officials including Premier Li Keqiang have repeatedly warned about the outlook as lockdowns in major cities like Shanghai disrupt production and spending.
An imminent reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for banks, as hinted strongly by the State Council, China’ s cabinet, may have made an interest rate cut less urgent, according to analysts with Citigroup Inc. and GF Securities Co. The RRR cuts in July and December last year both came days after a similar signal from either the State Council or the premier.
The PBOC was expected to lower rates sooner rather than later as tighter monetary policy in the U.S. reduces the China’ s yield premium over U.S. Treasuries, adding to capital outflow pressures and threatening the yuan.
China’ s yield advantage over Treasuries disappeared for the first time in more than a decade earlier this week, after overseas investors offloaded a record amount of Chinese sovereign bonds in March and trimmed holdings of mainland equities for the first time since September 2020.
Banks may still lower loan prime costs -- China’ s de-facto benchmark loan rates -- on April 20 after the government urged them to “ make reasonable interest concessions, ” Citigroup economists wrote in a Thursday note.
Sun Guofeng, head of the PBOC’ s monetary policy department, said Thursday the central bank will use its policy toolbox flexibly as it aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the economy.
( Updates with market reaction in fourth paragraph.)
Macquarie Group said the Canadian housing market is facing “ significant headwinds ” if the Bank of Canada does indeed increase its benchmark interest rate by another one-and-a-half per cent. | general |
EU Leaders to Discuss Joint Gas Purchases at Summit in Late May | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders plan to discuss common gas purchases at a summit late next month as they seek to avoid competing against each other for alternative energy supplies in the effort to phase out purchases from Russia.
The bloc’ s two-day summit starting May 30 is expected to cover a solidarity mechanism to support member states facing gas shortages, energy interconnections in the bloc, the security of energy supplies and possible changes to the EU’ s electricity market, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The May summit, which was added earlier this year, comes after leaders agreed in March to move toward joint storage and purchase of gas to help it cut down the bloc’ s over-dependence from Russia. Some European countries are calling for sanctions on Russian gas over Moscow’ s invasion of Ukraine, but about 40% of the EU’ s gas currently comes from Russia.
Even before the war in Ukraine, countries including France and Spain had been calling for shared purchase of gas to cushion the impact of energy price spikes, replicating the EU’ s joint mechanism for vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. Russian president Vladimir Putin’ s invasion, which added urgency to the bloc’ s push toward energy independence, is helping to convince some member states who were skeptical about the proposal.
Some EU governments are already reaching out to third countries to sign new gas deals. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi this week struck agreements for Algerian and Egyptian gas, and will travel to central and southern Africa later this month.
But the race to secure energy providers risks boosting fossil fuel prices even more if member states act in an uncoordinated manner, an EU official warned. The Italian deal sparked concern in the Spanish gas industry that it could affect their arrangements with Algeria.
Ahead of the summit, in the week of May 18, the European Commission aims to present its RePowerEU package, which addresses the rising energy costs and ways to cut down Europe’ s dependence on Russia. The proposal will also assess how member states’ post-pandemic recovery funds could help to address the bloc’ s energy structural gaps.
In parallel, the EU executive’ s arm will put forward proposals on faster permit-granting procedures for renewables projects, energy-savings initiatives and the design of the electricity market.
France, which holds the EU’ s rotating presidency, is considering convening an extra meeting of energy ministers to prepare for the summit after countries including Germany, Italy and the Netherlands requested it to scrutinize the commission’ s package.
EU leaders are also expected to discuss the commission’ s analysis on defense investment gaps and possible new sanctions to react to Russia’ s aggression against Ukraine.
Canada joins U.S., U.K. in diplomatic boycott of Beijing games
Trudeau weighs auto-content rules as next U.S. trade flashpoint | general |
Porsche sales stumble on supply chain snarls, virus restrictions | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
A customer looks at a Porsche GT3 luxury automobile in the Porsche SE showroom in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday, March 29, 2022. Porsche, which reports reports final year earnings today, delivered 301,915 vehicles to customers in 2021, an 11% jump from 2020 and the first time it has surpassed the 300,000 mark., Bloomberg
Porsche deliveries fell during the first quarter after outbreaks of coronavirus in China shut dealerships and a number of vehicles were lost at sea when a cargo ship caught fire and sank.
The Volkswagen AG brand’ s shipments dropped 5 per cent to 68,426 vehicles globally during the first three months of the year after significant declines in the U.S. and China outweighed a surge in Europe, the sports-car maker said Thursday. Last year, Porsche delivered a record number of vehicles even as the global chip shortage roiled carmakers.
“ The latest outbreak in the pandemic in China and other regions, as well as considerable delivery-related and logistical challenges, have put us under considerable pressure, ” Detlev von Platen, Porsche’ s sales and marketing chief, said in a statement.
Carmakers continue to battle significant strains from stretched supply chains, chief among them shortages of semiconductors that have idled production lines. While manufacturers have outlined hopes for improved supplies during the second half of the year, Mercedes-Benz AG reported a 15 per cent slump in deliveries during the first quarter. In addition, renewed lockdowns in China to combat coronavirus and Russia’ s war in Ukraine is straining global business.
Porsche performed better than some of the other Volkswagen units. Deliveries of the main VW passenger brand slumped 26 per cent in the first quarter, while Audi reported a 17 per cent decline, the Wolfsburg-based manufacturer said Thursday in a separate statement.
In China, Porsche’ s largest single market, sales fell by a fifth as government-imposed lockdowns forced trade and consumer businesses to a halt. The carmaker, one of VW’ s most profitable units, continues work on an initial public offering targeted for the fourth quarter, which could value the iconic brand at as much as 90 billion euros ( US $ 97.5 billion).
“ We are starting the second quarter with hyper-vigilance -- particularly in view of the armed conflicts in Ukraine, ” said von Platen. “ The impact on our business is continuously reviewed and assessed by experts in a task force. ” | general |
Latino Mortality Rate Spiked 48% in Los Angeles During Covid | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- The death rate of Latinos in Los Angeles rose dramatically more than any other ethnic group during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Between 2019 and 2021, the percentage rate of deaths for any reason for Latinos spiked 48%, data from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health show. Just under half of the city’ s population is of Hispanic or Latino descent, according to Census data. While all ethnic groups suffered more than usual deaths during the first year of the pandemic, only the Latino population saw the trend continue the following year. The overall two year mortality-rate for Black people increased 23% and 22% for Asian people, consistent with the broader county statistics.
The overall mortality rate for White residents rose by 7% in the two-year span. Black residents in Los Angeles, who comprise just under 9% of the population, still have the highest death rate of any group.
Latinos accounted for more than half of Covid-related deaths from Los Angeles, excluding Long Beach and Pasadena, the data show.
The increase in Latino mortality challenges what has been called the “ Latino health paradox, ” or the tendency for people of Hispanic or Latino descent to live longer than their counterparts, including non-Hispanic White people.
“ The ‘ paradox’ part stems from the unequal set of health-relevant risk factors — Latinos generally have lower education attainment, higher rates of poverty, lower socioeconomic status, lower rates of health insurance, and lower quality of accessible care, ” said John M. Ruiz, a professor at the University of Arizona.
The pandemic added an extra risk: Only one in six Hispanic workers nationwide were able to work from home and safeguard themselves from viral transmission, a March 2020 report from the Economic Policy Institute found.
Latinos in the U.S. tended to live 3.3 years longer than any other racial or ethnic group, Ruiz said, though the pandemic’ s disproportionate impact on the community narrowed the difference to 1.2 years in 2020.
A study from researchers at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine that has not yet been peer-reviewed and was published last week found that average life expectancy dropped in the U.S. in 2020, and the averages for Black, Latino and White Americans were all negatively affected. Those numbers increased slightly in 2021 for Black Americans and held steady for Latinos. White Americans were the only group who saw a further decrease last year. | general |
Covid Standout South Korea to Drop Most Curbs as Virus Recedes | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
Pedestrians walk beneath cherry blossoms in Seoul, on April 9., Getty Images via Bloomberg
( Bloomberg) -- South Korea is lifting almost all social distancing restrictions, including limits on private gatherings and restaurant operating hours, as a slowing spread of infections and drop of people in critical condition have prompted authorities to class Covid-19 with other long-standing diseases like tuberculosis.
Starting Monday, there will be no social distancing rules except for wearing masks, culminating the country’ s drive to “ return lives to normal ” with a strategy that has stood out for preventing an economic downturn while keeping the death rate relatively low.
“ As our quarantine situation and medical system’ s capability have been stabilized, we will boldly lift social distancing measures, ” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said in virus response meeting Friday.
The decision comes after South Korea eased some travel requirements, including exempting mandatory quarantine for fully vaccinated inbound travelers. But the country has been reluctant to completely reopen its borders as immigration officials are still mulling whether to reinstate visa-free travel with the emergence of the omicron sub-variant in other countries.
The measured, step-by-step approach to the pandemic has drawn global attention. The country pioneered the use of quick testing and high-tech contact tracing early on, using lessons learned from previous epidemics.
South Korea also focused on inoculating those in high-risk groups first. It now has the highest booster shot take-ups in the world, with 89.2% of the population 18 and above having had their third shot. This week, the government began supplying second boosters for the elderly.
While it’ s seen more than 30% of the 51 million population testing positive for Covid since the start of 2020, South Korea has never had to resort to a lockdown thanks to its mitigation approach that’ s constantly renewed and extended every few weeks depending on the severity of the spread. Some of the toughest measures included at one time limiting private gatherings to just two people and requiring a vaccine pass to enter restaurants and other public venues.
Unlike other countries that gave up and stopped tracking the virus during the omicron surge, South Korea continued to test everyone, at a cost of $ 1.3 billion, which led to the astronomical case counts.
After posting a world-topping daily tally of over 600,000 a month ago, new cases dropped to about 125,000 on Friday. The death rate remained at about one-10th of that in the U.S and near that of the seasonal flu for those who have been fully vaccinated.
With severe cases also falling, the country’ s health authorities downgraded Covid’ s infectious disease classification to a lower risk group on par with that of tuberculosis and cholera -- from the list of top risk diseases that include Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS.
The change means the quarantine period for those infected will likely be reduced from current seven days and those who test positive won’ t have to report it to health authorities immediately. The country is now advising people to use at-home test kits, offering free PCR testing only to those in the high-risk groups.
Canada joins U.S., U.K. in diplomatic boycott of Beijing games
Trudeau weighs auto-content rules as next U.S. trade flashpoint | general |
Your mental health may impact your chances of breakthrough COVID -- ScienceDaily | The researchers from UCSF and the San Francisco VA Health Care System found that patients over 65 with substance abuse, psychotic disorders, bipolar disorder, adjustment disorder and anxiety, faced increased risks of up to 24% for breakthrough COVID. For those under 65, risks were up to 11% higher than for those without a psychiatric history.
For both age groups, data was adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity and vaccine type, as well as for smoking and underlying conditions like obesity, diabetes, sleep apnea, cardiovascular, lung, kidney and liver diseases, HIV and cancer.
In the study, which publishes on April 14, 2022, in JAMA Network Open, researchers tracked data from more than a quarter of a million U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs patients, who had completed their vaccine regimen and had at least one test for SARS-CoV-2. Just over a half ( 51.4%) of the patients had received at least one psychiatric diagnosis within the last five years and 14.8% developed breakthrough COVID, confirmed by a positive test.
Waning Immunity, Less Protection to New Variants May Explain Higher Rates
`` Our research suggests that increased breakthrough infections in people with psychiatric disorders can not be entirely explained by socio-demographic factors or pre-existing conditions, '' said senior author Aoife O'Donovan, PhD, of the UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences and the San Francisco VA Health Care System. `` It's possible that immunity following vaccination wanes more quickly or more strongly for people with psychiatric disorders and/or they could have less protection to newer variants. ''
A study earlier this year, led by the same UCSF researchers, found that people with elevated anxiety and probable post-traumatic stress disorder, conditions associated with impulsivity, were more likely to engage in behaviors that put them at higher risk for COVID.
The average age of the 263,697 participants was 66 and 90.8% were male. Overall, those participants with psychiatric disorders had a 3% increased risk for breakthrough COVID infections in 2021, when adjusted for both demographic factors and pre-existing conditions, compared with participants without a psychiatric history. But the risk was 24% higher for over-65s with substance abuse, 23% higher for those with psychotic disorders, 16% higher for bipolar disorder, 14% for adjustment disorder and 12% for anxiety.
Surprisingly, given the greater incidence of breakthrough infections among younger people, this study showed significantly smaller effects in the under-65s group. Moreover, risks were 10% lower in participants with psychotic disorders compared to those without a psychiatric diagnosis -- a decrease that O'Donovan attributes to possible lower socialization among younger people with psychotic disorders compared with older people who `` may be less socially isolated because of their greater burden of ill health and contacts with caregivers. ''
However, risks for breakthrough infections associated with substance abuse, adjustment disorder, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder were all higher in the younger cohort than their peers without a psychiatric diagnosis -- 11%, 9%, 4% and 3%, respectively.
Higher Need for In-Person Care May Mean Increased Risk
First author Kristen Nishimi, PhD, also of the UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences and the San Francisco VA Health Care System, believes the higher incidence of breakthrough infection among older participants may be due to `` decreased immunological response to vaccine that has been associated with some psychiatric disorders, which may be more substantial in older adults. ''
It's also possible that older adults with psychiatric disorders `` may require more frequent in-person care, which could increase their interactions with the health care system, '' she noted.
Breakthrough risks for other non-psychiatric conditions were also calculated and adjusted for factors like obesity and smoking status, as well as other underlying conditions. The researchers found that patients with chronic kidney disease had an increased risk of 23%, compared with 20% for HIV, 19% for cardiovascular disease, 18% for COPD and 13% for sleep apnea.
This shows that certain psychiatric conditions, particularly in the 65-plus group, face risks that are on a par with other conditions, said O'Donovan. `` Mental health is important to consider in conjunction with other risk factors, '' she said, `` and some patients should be prioritized for boosters and other critical preventive efforts. ''
Co-Authors: Thomas C. Neylan, MD, of San Francisco VA Health Care System and UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences; Daniel Bertenthal, MPH, of San Francisco VA Health Care System; Karen H. Seal, MD, of UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences, UCSF Department of Medicine and San Francisco VA Health Care System.
Funding: This work was supported by a UCSF Department of Psychiatry Rapid Award and UCSF Faculty Resource Fund Award to O'Donovan. Nishimi and Bertenthal are supported by awards from the Department of Veterans Affairs | science |
UnitedHealth Raises Fiscal-Year Profit Estimate After Earnings Beat | Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
UnitedHealth Group
reported first-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ estimates and the giant health insurer raised its fiscal-year forecast.
UnitedHealth ( ticker: UNH) earned an adjusted $ 5.49 a share in the first quarter on revenue of $ 80.2 billion.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected UnitedHealth to report first-quarter earnings of $ 5.36 a share on revenue of $ 78.7 billion. A year earlier, the company reported a profit of $ 5.31 a share on revenue of $ 70.2 billion.
The company said earnings growth was driven by Optum Health on the “ accelerating expansion of its value-based care delivery initiatives. ” Optum revenue rose 18.9% from a year earlier to $ 43.3 billion.
UnitedHealth said its first-quarter operating cost ratio was 14.2%, down from 14.6% in 2021 “ due to Covid effects and continued productivity advances, partially offset by business mix ” and investments. The medical care ratio was 82% vs. 80.9%.
UnitedHealth said it expects adjusted fiscal-year earnings of $ 21.20 to $ 21.70 a share, higher than its previous forecast of $ 21.10 to $ 21.60.
The stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading Thursday to $ 539.80.
Write to Joe Woelfel at
joseph.woelfel @ barrons.com | business |
The Pandemic Generation News and Research | Like many paediatricians, Dani Dumitriu braced herself for the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus when it first surged in her wards. She was relieved when most newborn babies at her hospital who had been exposed to COVID-19 seemed to do just fine. Knowledge of the effects of Zika and other viruses that can cause birth defects meant that doctors were looking out for problems.
But hints of a more subtle and insidious trend followed close behind. Dumitriu and her team at the NewYork–Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children’ s Hospital in New York City had more than two years of data on infant development—since late 2017, they had been analysing the communication and motor skills of babies up to six months old. Dumitriu thought it would be interesting to compare the results from babies born before and during the pandemic. She asked her colleague Morgan Firestein, a postdoctoral researcher at Columbia University in New York City, to assess whether there were neurodevelopmental differences between the two groups.
A few days later, Firestein called Dumitriu in a panic. “ She was like, ‘ We’ re in a crisis, I don’ t know what to do, because we not only have an effect of a pandemic, but it’ s a significant one,’ ” Dumitriu recalled. She was up most of that night, poring over the data. The infants born during the pandemic scored lower, on average, on tests of gross motor, fine motor and communication skills compared with those born before it ( both groups were assessed by their parents using an established questionnaire). It didn’ t matter whether their birth parent had been infected with the virus or not; there seemed to be something about the environment of the pandemic itself.
Dumitriu was stunned. “ We were like, oh, my God, ” she recalled. “ We’ re talking about hundreds of millions of babies. ”
Although children have generally fared well when infected with SARS-CoV-2, preliminary research suggests that pandemic-related stress during pregnancy could be negatively affecting fetal brain development in some children. Moreover, frazzled parents and carers might be interacting differently or less with their young children in ways that could affect a child’ s physical and mental abilities.
Lockdowns—which have been crucial for controlling the spread of the coronavirus—have isolated many young families, robbing them of playtime and social interactions. Stressed out and stretched thin, many carers also haven’ t been able to provide the one-to-one time that babies and toddlers need.
“ Everyone wants to document how this is impacting child development, and parent–child relationships and peer relationships, ” says James Griffin, chief of the Child Development and Behavior Branch at the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development in Bethesda, Maryland. “ Everyone has concerns. ”
Some of the teams looking into these issues around the world are starting to publish their findings. New studies have begun. Firm answers are hard to come by, not least because many child-development research laboratories shut down during the pandemic.
Some babies born during the past two years might be experiencing developmental delays, whereas others might have thrived, if carers were at home for extended periods and there were more opportunities for siblings to interact. As with many aspects of health during the pandemic, social and economic disparities have a clear role in who is affected the most. Early data suggest that the use of masks has not negatively affected children’ s emotional development. But prenatal stress might contribute to some changes in brain connectivity. The picture is evolving and many studies have not yet been peer reviewed.
Some researchers propose that many of the children falling behind in development will be able to catch up without lasting effects. “ I do not expect that we’ re going to find that there’ s a generation that has been injured by this pandemic, ” says Moriah Thomason, a child and adolescent psychologist at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine.
One lab that managed to stay open during the COVID-19 pandemic was Brown University’ s Advanced Baby Imaging Lab in Providence, Rhode Island. In it, Sean Deoni, a medical biophysicist, and his colleagues use magnetic resonance imaging ( MRI) and other techniques to study how environmental factors shape brain development in infants.
Although the pandemic changed how they conducted their research—fewer visitors and more cleaning—they continued inviting babies to their lab, to track motor, visual and language skills as part of a seven-year National Institutes of Health study on early childhood development and its effects on later health.
However, as the pandemic progressed, Deoni began hearing worrying comments from his colleagues. “ What our staff began to tell me, anecdotally, was ‘ Man, it’ s taking these kids a lot longer to get through these assessments,’ ” Deoni recalled.
He was mystified, so asked his researchers to plot and compare the yearly averages and variances from the infants’ neurodevelopmental scores. That’ s when they discovered that the scores during the pandemic were much worse than those from previous years ( see ‘ Development dip’). “ Things just began sort of falling off a rock the tail end of last year and the beginning part of this year, ” he said in late 2021. When they compared results across participants, the pandemic-born babies scored almost two standard deviations lower than those born before it on a suite of tests that measure development in a similar way to IQ tests. They also found that babies from low-income families experienced the largest drops, that boys were more affected than girls and that gross motor skills were affected the most.
At first, Deoni assumed that selection bias was at play: perhaps the families who made the effort to come in for testing during the pandemic were those whose children were at risk of developmental problems or were already showing them. But, over time, he grew convinced that selection bias wasn’ t explaining the findings, because the children coming in did not have different backgrounds, birth outcomes or socio-economic statuses compared with previous participants.
These effects appeared drastic, but some researchers argue that they are not necessarily predictive of long-term problems. “ IQ, as babies, doesn’ t predict much, ” says Marion van den Heuvel, a developmental neuropsychologist at Tilburg University in the Netherlands. “ It’ s really hard to say anything about what that will mean for their future. ” She points to a study showing that Romanian girls who started life in orphanages but were then adopted by foster families before 2.5 years of age were less likely to have psychiatric problems at 4.5 years of age than were girls who remained in institutional care. That situation is different from a pandemic, but suggests that babies could make up for hardship once restrictions are lifted.
Worryingly, however, Deoni has found that the longer the pandemic has continued, the more deficits children have accumulated. “ The magnitude is massive—it’ s just astonishing, ” Deoni says of the findings, which are now under revision in JAMA Pediatrics.
When Deoni first posted his results on a preprint server, there was a flurry of worrying media coverage—and backlash from the research community. There was “ a real concern about the fact that these results were being put out without proper peer review, ” Griffin says.
But, assuming the findings do have merit, why might babies born during the COVID-19 pandemic be experiencing significant cognitive—and especially motor—deficits? Deoni suspects that the problems stem from a lack of human-to-human interactions. In follow-up research that has not yet been published, he and his team have recorded parent—child interactions at home, finding that the number of words spoken by parents to their children, and vice versa, in the past two years has been lower than in previous years. He also suspects that babies and toddlers are not getting as much gross motor practice as usual because they aren’ t regularly playing with other children or going to playgrounds. “ And the unfortunate thing is that those skills kind of lay the foundation for all the other skills, ” he says.
Other recent research supports the idea that lack of peer interactions could be holding some kids back. In a study published earlier this year, researchers in the United Kingdom surveyed 189 parents of children between the ages of 8 months and 3 years, asking whether their children received daycare or attended preschool during the pandemic, and assessing language and executive functioning skills. The authors found that the children’ s skills were stronger if they had received group care during the pandemic, and that these benefits were more pronounced among children from lower-income backgrounds.
Those most at risk seem to be children of colour or those from low-income families. For instance, a growing body of research suggests that among school-aged children, remote learning might be widening the already-large learning and development gaps between children from affluent and low-income backgrounds and between white kids and children of colour. In the Netherlands, researchers found that kids did worse on national assessments in 2020—compared with the three previous years—and that learning losses were up to 60% larger for children from less-educated families.
In parts of sub-Saharan Africa—including Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Tanzania and Uganda—research suggests that some children have lost as much as a full year of learning. And in the United States, after the first lockdown, a report by the consultancy firm McKinsey suggested that students of colour began school in autumn three to five months behind in learning, whereas white students were only one to three months behind ( go.nature.com/3fauntp).
Children who have attended school or other group settings during the pandemic have typically been interacting with others who wore face masks. One important question is whether masks, which obscure parts of the face important for expressing emotions and speech, might also be affecting kids’ emotional and language development.
Edward Tronick, a psychologist at the University of Massachusetts Boston, has been bombarded with e-mails from parents and paediatricians concerned about the potential developmental effects of masking. Tronick is famous for his 1975 ‘ Still Face’ experiment, which showed that when birth parents suddenly remained straight-faced when interacting with their infants, their kids at first tried to get their attention, and then slowly withdrew and grew increasingly upset and wary.
Tronick decided to see whether masks had a similar effect. With his colleague, psychologist Nancy Snidman, he conducted an experiment ( which has not yet been peer reviewed) in which parents used smartphones to record interactions with their babies before, during and after they put on face masks. Although babies noticed when their parents put on masks—they would briefly change their facial expression, look away or point at the mask—they would then continue interacting with their parents as they had before. The mask is blocking only one channel of communication, Tronick says. “ The parent wearing a mask is still saying, ‘ I’ m interacting with you, I’ m still here for you, I’ m still connecting to you.’ ”
Face masks don’ t seem to interfere all that much with emotional or language perception, either. A study published in May reported that two-year-olds were still able to understand words spoken by adults in opaque face masks. Children “ compensate for information deficits more readily than we think ”, says study lead author Leher Singh, a psychologist at the National University of Singapore. Researchers in the United States found that, although face masks made it harder for school-age children to perceive adults’ emotions—about as difficult as when adults were wearing sunglasses—the kids were still, for the most part, able to make accurate inferences.
“ There’ s a lot of other cues that kids can use to parse apart how other people are feeling, like vocal expressions, body expressions, context, ” says study author Ashley Ruba, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
Other researchers are keen to know whether the pandemic could be affecting children’ s development before they are born. Catherine Lebel, a psychologist who runs the Developmental Neuroimaging Lab at the University of Calgary in Canada, and her colleagues surveyed more than 8,000 pregnant people during the pandemic. Nearly half reported experiencing symptoms of anxiety, while one-third had symptoms of depression—a much higher percentage than in pre-pandemic years. How was this stress affecting babies in the womb?
To find out, the researchers used MRI imaging to scan the brains of 75 of the babies 3 months after birth. In a preprint posted in October, they found that babies born to people who reported more prenatal distress—more anxiety or depression symptoms—showed different structural connections between their amygdala, a brain region involved in emotional processing, and their prefrontal cortex, an area responsible for executive functioning skills.
In a previous, small study, Lebel and her team had made the link between prenatal depression and brain connectivity differences in those same areas, and had suggested that in boys, these brain changes correlated with aggressive and hyperactive behaviour at preschool age. Other teams have found that changes in connectivity between these areas in adults are risk factors for depression and anxiety. “ Those are the areas that are involved in emotion processing, and lots of different behaviours, ” Lebel says.
Other research has found similar associations between prenatal pandemic stress and child development. Livio Provenzi, a psychologist at the IRCCS Mondino Foundation in Pavia, Italy, and his colleagues observed that three-month-old babies of people who reported experiencing more stress and anxiety during pregnancy had more problems regulating their emotions and attention—they were less able to maintain their attention on social stimuli, for instance, and were less easily soothed—than were babies of people who were less stressed and anxious during pregnancy.
Thomason is running her own study to assess the effects of maternal stressors on children’ s brains and behaviour. She notes that, although there is a lot of concern about how prenatal stress might affect pandemic babies, early findings such as these do not mean that children are going to struggle for the rest of their lives. “ Children are so adaptive, and elastic. And we do expect that things are going to improve and that they should be able to be resilient to a lot of what’ s happened, ” she says.
Indeed, research on historical disasters suggests that, although stress in the womb can be harmful to babies, it doesn’ t always have lasting effects. Children born to people who experienced considerable stress as a result of the 2011 floods in Queensland, Australia, showed deficits in problem-solving and social skills at six months of age, compared with children born to people who experienced less stress. However, by 30 months, these outcomes were no longer correlated with stress, and the more responsive that parents were to their babies’ and toddlers’ needs after birth, the better the toddlers did.
The research on pandemic babies presents a mixed picture, and scientists say it’ s too early to draw meaningful interpretations. For one thing, some of these early, often unpublished findings might not reflect reality, says Catherine Monk, a medical psychologist who works with Dimitriu at NewYork–Presbyterian.
The parents who chose to participate in some early studies, for instance, might not be a representative sample, Monk says. Perhaps they were already worried about their kids on the basis of the behaviours they are seeing. Furthermore, she says, the results of in-person studies such as Deoni’ s could be affected by the wearing of face masks—perhaps not a lot, but enough to skew results.
As Thomason wrote last year in a commentary in JAMA Pediatrics, the incentive to publish interesting findings might also be shaping these early studies. “ Scientists are quick to go look for a harmful difference. It’ s the thing that’ s going to get the attention of the media; it’ s the thing that’ s going to get published in a high-impact journal, ” she says.
Researchers and funders are launching large studies and collaborations that could help to build a clearer picture. The US National Institute on Drug Abuse is funding a handful of studies through its Healthy Brain and Child Development Study. These will look at how maternal stress and substance use during the pandemic affect child development. In addition, alliances and conferences have been formed to bring researchers together and share emerging data. In March 2020, Thomason launched the international COVID Generation Research Alliance, which brings together researchers from 14 countries studying families with young children during the pandemic. The alliance, which held a research summit in November 2021, includes researchers in North and South America, Europe, Australia, Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
Even if kids’ brains are truly being affected by the pandemic, there is still time to steer them back on course, Dumitriu notes. “ We can totally get ahead of this becoming a public-health emergency, ” she says. “ The brains of six-month-olds are very plastic, and we can get in there, and we can change their trajectory. ”
Parents can make headway by playing and talking with their young children regularly, and giving them opportunities to play with others in safe settings. Policy changes aimed at supporting families and children could make a difference, too. Lebel’ s research found that meaningful social support, such as from a partner or close friend, during pregnancy resulted in much less prenatal distress. “ We could do so much more of that in the prenatal care ecosystem, ” says Monk. Researchers also argue for interventions that support families immediately after birth. Provenzi’ s research has found that people who had just given birth and were visited at home by nurses and neonatologists experienced less stress and anxiety than those who did not receive these visits.
Overall, researchers maintain that most children will probably be OK—but more than usual might currently be struggling. And if we want to support those who are falling behind, we should ideally intervene soon. “ Kids are certainly very resilient, ” Deoni says. “ But at the same time, we also recognize the importance of the first 1,000 days of a child’ s life as being the crucial early foundations. ” The first pandemic babies, born in March 2020 are, at this point, more than 650 days old.
Children “ are a product of their environment ”, Deoni says. “ The more that we can stimulate them and play with them and read to them and love them—that’ s what it’ s going to take. ”
This article is reproduced with permission and was first published on January 12 2022. | science |
AiThority Interview with Robert Schena, CEO and Co-founder at Rajant | The co-founding of Rajant in 2001 by me and Paul Hellhake came about in the aftermath of 9/11 when our country witnessed communication breakdowns when traditional networks were hit by terrorists. Together with a small team of engineers and business development experts, we identified the need for private networking that could effectively support mobile wireless communications under adverse conditions and without infrastructure. What was originally intended to support first responders drew the attention of the U.S. military and then commercially with mining. Rajant pioneered Kinetic Mesh®, the most adaptable, scalable, and readily deployable networking solution on the market today, and expanded to more industries, such as energy, ports, agriculture, and our original target, public safety.
Every entrepreneur faces adversity when launching a company. It is how you overcome it and grow that is the most important part of the process. We started our company during a very tense part of our nation’ s history.
Prior to 9/11, our co-founder Paul Hellhake and I were working on new wireless technology for last-mile communications in the telecom industry. After recognizing how our work could address the significant shortcomings of traditional wireless technology—particularly when it came to mobile voice and data networks used by first responders—we redirected our efforts to create a wireless broadband network system capable of the attributes stated earlier. It had to be fully mobile, instantly deployed, self-configuring, and automatically fault tolerant.
In October 2001, one month following the 9/11 attacks, Rajant was established. We envisioned a new, dynamic communications network based on robust InstaMesh® that would deliver on the promises of mobility, scalability, bandwidth, and immunity to failure. InstaMesh is the protocol that seamlessly networks fixed, wireless, and mobile radio nodes together and dynamically redirects traffic between the next best available points if any one peer node is compromised or obstructed. We matched this with the rugged design and tight manufacturing tolerances of the Rajant BreadCrumb radio nodes. In doing so, we delivered on a promise of operating reliably in even the most demanding environments while overcoming the inherent complexities of wireless data networking.
In the pandemic, we’ ve had to change the way we do business. The most telling was further opening lines of communication. I hosted bi-weekly small group calls with every Rajant employee. The conversation was two-way where I’ d give a state of our performance and operations followed by comments and questions. We enacted similar meetings with our global channel and partners to figure out new ways to help them remain productive and helpful to their end-users. We donated networking equipment, meeting HIPAA security standards. This enabled connectivity for hospital emergency response rapid deployment to treat and service the escalating COVID-related patient numbers. Rajant also used our 3D printers to produce masks at a time when supply was limited.
Rajant Kinetic Mesh is unlike any other wireless mesh system. It provides fully mobile broadband connectivity that is simple, instantaneous, and fail-proof in any application – providing resilient communication of video, voice, and data that moves and evolves with connectivity demands.
Through our patented Kinetic Mesh, Rajant brings to life extraordinarily agile and adaptable wireless mesh networks and a broadband solution that thrives in today’ s diverse, ubiquitously mobile environments.
5G, the fifth-generation mobile network, promises things like significantly higher performance and improved efficiency that can connect pretty much everyone and everything. While it is true that next-gen 5G will take advantage of higher frequencies to deliver data rates faster than 4G, there are still 5G network disadvantages. It isn’ t the silver bullet of connectivity for OEMs and their customers.
These frequencies have a much shorter range and require line-of-sight, meaning more towers are needed—escalating deployment and maintenance costs quickly. And it still doesn’ t solve the root challenge of LTE in industrial settings—namely, that radio frequency can’ t travel through common industrial obstructions like thick steel or rock.
Rajant’ s wireless networking creates a more resilient, fully mobile coverage everywhere across an industrial setting. Our network has many nodes—connection points in a communications link—that work peer-to-peer, simultaneously holding multiple connections over multiple frequencies. This creates a phenomenon where hundreds of potential paths to connection are available without throughput degradation or lag. Optimally, nodes can be fixed or mobile and easily deployed on moving equipment to extend coverage in hard-to-reach places. This enables machine-to-machine communications, which can be crucial in many dynamic environments.
Pop-up shelters and field support centers looked to Rajant with greater intensity amid the global pandemic. One example is Rajant joining forces with Western Shelter to provide a safe environment for a frontline response. Running Ethernet cable to every device in temporary spaces is time-consuming and creates safety hazards. Wi-Fi is hard to come by in remote locations; it’ s essential to develop more reliable communications options for healthcare and emergency response teams.
Robotics and drones are excellent options to distance the human workforce from unsafe conditions. Safety separation from germs was pushed to the forefront with COVID-19 making robotic platforms, whether automated or semi-autonomous, preferential to putting people on the frontline for many tasks. To enable better coverage and benefits, healthcare systems will find a secure networking solution that scales to their demands anywhere and at any time.
This is my favorite part of the Q & A. Please tell us about your views on Artificial Intelligence ( AI) and Machine Learning ( ML). How do you envision a more secured and customer-friendly environment in mesh technology with AI and ML applications?
Reliable access to real-time data is critical for AI and ML to be effective. This puts Rajant in the ideal position to enable, develop, and deploy these next-generation applications. Rajant was the first to create an autonomously adaptable network. That innovation spurred Kinetic Mesh to become the ideal platform to unleash the full potential of AI-powered technology and applications today. It is the ideal solution to deliver mission-critical, low-latency connectivity required for AI.
Autonomy and robotics are just the beginning of the state-of-the-art AI applications Rajant can enable and develop for industries like healthcare, mining, energy, and public safety. We’ re committed to applying our technology in ways that help our customers solve significant, complex challenges.
Mining is an inherently risky occupation, with dangers ranging from mine collapses to inhalation of harmful particles. However, it is becoming less dangerous—as robotic technologies pave the way for safer work conditions and more deployment of resourceful solutions.
We work across several industries, but the ones that have mainly adopted our mesh network solutions are those that see an immediate need for it. This includes mining, military, oil & gas, public safety, heavy construction, and other mission-critical areas.
However, we work across many other markets, including warehouse automation, agriculture, amusement events, and other industries requiring our mesh network solutions.
We collaborate with our partners in a variety of ways and settings. It typically depends on the industry and region we are serving. One concrete example of how we partnered with two other organizations was in a recent, historic mine inspection in the U.S. Working with our technology partner Australian Droid and Robot ( ADR) and integration partner PBE Group, we completed the deepest remote underground mine inspection in history. Using ten ADR Explora XL unmanned robots and a wireless below-ground communication network, a mobile infrastructure depth of 1.7 kilometers was achieved to enable the reestablishment of operations at a collapsed limestone mine and restore jobs.
There are countless other examples and partners we work with around the world. You can learn more about them here.
Of note is Rajant’ s recent and continued growth. During a time of pandemic-related uncertainty, Rajant sought out the talent other organizations laid off. From seasoned veterans to tomorrow’ s leaders, we are committed to helping professionals grow. An example of this is the recent Lean Six Sigma certification for nine of our team members. This is the second year in a row following Rajant’ s same achievement announced in January 2021. Process phases, which support Rajant’ s culture of continuous improvement in engineering and manufacturing. You can read more about that here.
Thank you, Robert! That was fun and we hope to see you back on AiThority.com soon.
[ To share your insights with us, please write to sghosh @ martechseries.com ]
In 2002, Robert Schena co-founded Rajant Corporation, the pioneer of Kinetic Mesh™ Networks. Mr. Schena has successfully grown this once small startup in Wayne, Pennsylvania to have a strong international presence in a broad array of markets including military, industrial, transportation, utilities, and telecommunications. Today, Rajant is doing business in over 50 countries with large global partners and has offices across the U.S., including offices in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Kentucky, and Alabama. | tech |
TSMC Beats Profit Estimates as Gadget Demand Boosts Chip Sales | The information you requested is not available at this time, please check back again soon.
( Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported first-quarter profit that beat estimates on solid demand for chips used in everything from smartphones to cars, while an ongoing shortage increased prices.
Net income rose to NT $ 202.7 billion ( $ 7 billion) in the three months through March, the world’ s biggest contract manufacturer of chips said Thursday. Analysts estimated NT $ 186.1 billion on average. Revenue jumped 36% to a record NT $ 491.1 billion ( $ 17 billion) based on previously reported numbers.
Consumers in the U.S. and Europe are snapping up mobile phones, smart televisions and other gadgets from makers such as Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. even as they exit pandemic-era work-from-home arrangements. Meanwhile a chip shortage is yet to ease -- the wait times for semiconductor delivery grew again in March due to China’ s Covid lockdowns and a Japan earthquake that hit production, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group.
TSMC has kept production running in China, even as many other factories suspended operations to cope with the local pandemic policy. The chipmaker said in end-March that it will rearrange production priorities to deal with a shift in demand caused by Covid restrictions in China. TSMC wasn’ t planning to revise down its sales and capital spending forecasts for 2022, Chairman Mark Liu said at the time.
TSMC’ s inventory strategy on key materials such as silicon wafers and industrial gases will be a key focus at the 1Q results briefing, as rising geopolitical tension and slow global wafer capacity gains keep the supply picture foggy.
The company has earmarked $ 40 billion to $ 44 billion this year to expand and upgrade its facilities -- a record outlay intended to keep the company at the forefront of a rapidly evolving technology and sating future demand. But analysts including Credit Suisse’ s Randy Abrams warn that semiconductor sector growth could slow in the second half as higher interest rates, Chinese lockdowns and rising commodity prices sap spending on consumer electronics.
Shares of TSMC have lost about 7% this year, dragged down by a broader decline in global technology stocks and China’ s lockdowns which have weighed on consumer demand and affected supply chains. The stock was little changed ahead of the company’ s report. | general |
Volkswagen warns of cloudy outlook as commodity hedges boost profit | * Q1 operating return on sales 13.5% vs 7.7%
* Commodity hedges boost profits amid soaring raw material prices
* Group deliveries down 21.9% in Q1
* All-electric vehicle deliveries jump 65%
BERLIN, April 14 ( Reuters) - Volkswagen on Thursday warned that it had started to feel the impact of the war in Ukraine on supply chains and raw materials prices in the first quarter, with the longer-term effects on its business difficult to predict.
The company indicated an 8.5 billion euro ( $ 9.27 billion) operating profit for the first three months of the year, but noted that 3.5 billion euros of that was attributable to commodity hedges amid soaring raw material prices.
Volkswagen shares were 2.1% lower at 147.9 euros by 1054 GMT.
Its operating return on sales jumped to 13.5% in the first quarter, according to the preliminary figures, from 7.7% in the same period of 2021 when the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor shortages were weighing heavily on results.
A spokesperson said in March that the company had long-term measures in place with suppliers to secure raw materials, including an `` extensive and forward-looking purchasing and hedging program for important precious metals. ''
Nonetheless, Volkswagen warned at its annual results conference last month that the outbreak of war in Ukraine called its annual forecast of an 8-13% boost to revenue with a 5-10% increase in deliveries into question.
Volkswagen Group deliveries were down 21.9% in January to March, totalling just over 1.89 million vehicles, with brand deliveries down 25.6%. Still, deliveries of all-electric vehicles grew 65% to 99,100, with the biggest increase in China.
Carmakers have prioritized their electric line-ups amid a shortage of semiconductors as a way to boost revenue and remain on track to meet tightening European climate regulations.
BMW reported last week that its deliveries in the first quarter had fallen 6.2% while Mercedes-Benz saw a drop of 15% from last year.
Volkswagen is due to publish first-quarter results on May 4. ( $ 1 = 0.9170 euros) ( Reporting by Victoria Waldersee; Editing by Maria Sheahan, Kirsten Donovan) | business |
Bird flu, Ukraine war push egg prices higher worldwide | Severe outbreaks of bird flu in the United States and France are tightening global egg supplies and raising prices for the food staple as the war in Ukraine disrupts shipments to Europe and the Middle East.
Higher prices are particularly painful for consumers who rely on eggs as a low-cost source of protein and substitute for more expensive meat. Demand jumps around the Easter and Passover holidays in the United States and Europe as families use eggs to bake and dye Easter eggs.
Bird flu has wiped out more than 19 million egg-laying chickens on commercial U.S. farms this year in the worst outbreak since 2015, eliminating about 6% of the country's flock, according to Reuters calculations of federal and state government data. France, meanwhile, is suffering its worst outbreak ever in which about 8% of egg-laying hens have been culled.
When poultry are infected, entire flocks are culled to contain the disease, which is often spread by wild birds.
The deadly virus and war are the latest challenges for egg suppliers also grappling with labor shortages and high costs for energy and grain used for animal feed.
Higher egg prices eat into profits for bakeries and food companies grappling with increased costs for flour and other goods. World food prices jumped nearly 13% in March to a new record high as the war in Ukraine, a major exporter of wheat and corn, pushed up grain prices, the U.N. food agency said.
Egg prices are expected to stay elevated, producers said, as it will take months to resume operations on infected farms. Infections also hamper work at facilities that process shell eggs into products like dried eggs and liquid eggs used in food items such as cake and pancake mixes and egg sandwiches.
`` The product industry is in a general panic, '' said Marcus Rust, chief executive of Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest U.S. egg producer. The company lost about 1.5 million egg-laying chickens at an Iowa farm infected by bird flu, which also sidelined a processing plant, he said.
'EVERYBODY IS RUNNING SHORT '
Iowa, the top U.S. egg-producing state, has suffered badly with the culling of two flocks that each contained more than 5 million laying chickens. On Wednesday, Nebraska said a flock of more than 1.7 million laying hens would be culled. The sheer size of such poultry operations accelerated the impact on the U.S. food industry, compared to Europe where farms are smaller.
Wholesale prices for large eggs in the U.S. Midwest topped $ 3 per dozen in March and reached the second-highest level ever, up nearly 200% from a year earlier on the spot market, data firm Urner Barry said. Prices remained below the record of $ 3.09 per dozen set at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Egg products like liquid whole eggs are at record highs, though, Urner Barry said.
In France, wholesale shell egg prices have climbed 69% from last year, French farm office FranceAgriMer said. As a result, consumers could see higher prices for food products made with eggs.
`` When you produce mayonnaise, it is quite complicated when egg prices surge, '' said Jean-Philippe Puig, chief executive of French agri-food group Avril, which owns sauce maker Lesieur. `` You must turn to supermarkets and convince them to accept a price rise. ''
The United States increased egg imports from countries including France, Italy and Spain to boost supplies after its worst-ever outbreak of bird flu in 2015, according to U.S. government data. Imports are a less viable option now because of outbreaks in Europe, analysts said.
`` It is very much turning into a global issue in terms of the overall shortage, '' said Karyn Rispoli, Urner Barry egg market reporter. `` Unfortunately now everybody is running short on supply. ''
WAR REDIRECTS DEMAND
The outbreak of war, not just disease, is disrupting supply chains for Middle East buyers.
Santosh Kumar, who imports eggs for Farzana Trading in the United Arab Emirates, said he is not aware of shipments from Ukraine into the UAE for the past two weeks. Farzana is importing eggs from Turkey instead, he said.
Ukraine produced 14.1 billion eggs in 2021, data from Ukraine's state statistics service shows. A year earlier, production reached 16.2 billion eggs, more than the 15.7 billion produced in France, the EU's largest egg producer, according to French egg industry group CNPO.
Ukraine has in recent years been the EU's main egg supplier, accounting for about half of the imports, ahead of the United States.
Middle Eastern countries that bought Ukrainian eggs before the war are attempting to find replacement supplies in Europe, said Loic Coulombel, CNPO vice president.
`` There is a bird flu problem in France but also throughout Europe, '' he said. `` The is no other European country that would have a large volume to compensate for the shortfall. ''
French food manufacturers will likely reduce output of some processed goods or adjust their recipes to cope with high egg prices, said Coulombel, who produces about 1 million eggs in France's Brittany and Normandy regions.
In Green Bay, Wisconsin, Liz Rehberg, owner of cake and pastry shop The Bakery, said the price for 15 dozen eggs climbed to $ 45 from $ 26 in recent weeks. She is considering whether to raise prices or reduce the sizes of her baked goods.
`` You're just ordering it because you need eggs, '' Rehberg said. `` Then you look at the price and you go, 'Oh my God. ' ''
( Reporting by Tom Polansek and Sybille de La Hamaide; Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Alexander Cornwell in Dubai; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Lisa Shumaker)
By Tom Polansek and Sybille de La Hamaide | business |
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott cites'sense of urgency ' in move to ease border gridlock precipitated by backup inspections he ordered | AUSTIN, Texas — The logjam of trucks at the U.S.-Mexico border finally began breaking Thursday after nearly a week as Texas Gov. Greg Abbott eased off his latest dramatic action over immigration that has gridlocked some of the world’ s busiest trade ports and taken a mounting economic toll.
“ There is a sense of urgency now to reach deals that did not exist before, ” Abbott said.
The two-term Republican governor, who for days has allowed commercial trucks to backup for miles into Mexico after requiring them to stop for additional inspections in Texas, lifted that order for bridges in El Paso and other cities after announcing a new security agreement with the neighboring Mexican state of Chihuahua.
Background:
White House blasts Texas governor’ s inspections of trucks at border, notes ‘ significant disruptions’
Also:
Further price inflation and product shortages in forecast as Texas governor’ s extra inspections snarl truck traffic at Mexico frontier
And:
Defiant Greg Abbott sticks to extra-inspections regime amid public outcry over commercial traffic gridlock at Texas’ s southern border
This does not represent a full repeal of Abbott’ s policy that he rushed into place April 6 as part of an ongoing fight with the Biden administration over the flow of migrants and drugs. The lengthy extra inspections elsewhere along Texas’ s 1,200-mile border — including in the busy Rio Grande Valley — will continue until Abbott says similar agreements are reached with other Mexican states.
But the deal with Gov. María Campos Galván of Chihuahua, who joined Abbott for the announcement in the Texas capitol, sets in motion the biggest relief yet for traffic that has snarled the Texas-Mexico border and raised intensifying warnings of higher prices for U.S. shoppers and spare grocery store shelves.
“ People like me who buy millions of dollars of produce a week are starting to curb their purchases toward other regions of the country, ” said Brent Erenwert, CEO of Brothers Produce in Houston, which relies heavily on imports from Mexico.
The inspections ordered by Abbott came in response to the Biden administration’ s announcement last month it would wind down a public health law that has limited asylum-seekers in the name of preventing the spread of COVID-19. When that happens, the number of migrants coming to the U.S. is expected to increase.
On Wednesday, Abbott had repealed the inspections at one bridge in Laredo after reaching a similar agreement over security with neighboring Nuevo Leon. Gov. Samuel García of Nuevo Leon said his state would begin checkpoints to assure Abbott they “ would not have any trouble. ”
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican who has urged Abbott to walk back the inspections order, said Thursday one major agricultural company told him that 100 trucks sent to Mexico for deliveries have been unable to come back across because of the congestion.
He questioned what the holdout achieved, and in the case of Abbott’ s agreement with Nuevo Leon, said it did not appear substantive.
“ They’ re just basically going to leave it up in good faith, ” Miller said. “ There’ s no enforcement, no reckoning on that if they don’ t. ”
The White House, the Mexican government, trade groups and reeling businesses have bashed the extra inspections as redundant and a new burden on an already fragile supply chain.
Abbott faces a re-election battle with Democrat Beto O’ Rourke in November. The former congressman and Democratic presidential hopeful has called the extra-inspection regime counterproductive, at minimum, including citing
a Wall Street Journal editorial
critical of the Abbott scheme.
Critics have asked how the inspections are meeting Abbott’ s objective of stopping the flow of migrants and drugs. Abbott, when asked what troopers had turned up in their truck inspections, directed the question to the Texas Department of Public Safety.
As of Monday, the agency said it had inspected more than 3,400 commercial vehicles and placed more than 800 “ out of service ” for violations that included defective brakes, tires and lighting. It made no mention of whether the inspections turned up migrants or drugs.
Abbott’ s border inspections came at a time when U.S. supply chains are already overwhelmed. A surge in demand from customers — the result of a surprisingly fast recovery from the devastating coronavirus recession of 2020 — caught businesses by surprise and led to bottlenecks at factories, ports and freight yards. It’ s also pushed up prices, contributing to the highest inflation in 40 years.
COVID-related factory shutdowns in China and the rocketing cost of shipping goods across the Pacific Ocean have many companies looking to Mexico, where there’ s no ocean to cross and there’ s relief from the political and trade disputes between Washington and Beijing.
“ A lot of companies, right now, they’ re looking at Mexico as a way to bypass ocean dependency,’’ said Bindiya Vakil, CEO of the supply chain consultancy Resilnc. “ If I’ m one of those companies, I’ m looking at this new regulation on the Texas border and I’ m really concerned because this means additional delays, and that was supposed to be my solution — to go to Mexico and avoid the ocean altogether.’’
“ The border situation is already pretty bad,’’ Bakil said. “ Truck drivers spend hours sitting — six to eight hours — just waiting at the border.’’ The trucking industry is already struggling to find and keep drivers, she said; more hassles at the U.S.-Mexico border will just make a truck driving less appealing and the jobs harder to fill.
The U.S.-Mexico border is crucial to the U.S. economy. The United States last year imported $ 390.7 billion worth of goods from Mexico, second only to China. Laredo, Texas, was the busiest U.S. port of entry for trucks last year, processing 1.9 million loaded containers, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
The auto industry is especially dependent on cross-border commerce. The U.S. last year imported more auto parts from Mexico ( $ 60.1 billion worth) than it did from the next four countries ( Canada, China, Japan and Germany) combined.
Read on:
Texas Gov. Abbott’ s migrant bus discharges passengers at D.C. building housing Fox News, NBC News, C-SPAN | business |
Meet ZingoStealer: the Haskers Gang's new, free malware | ZingoStealer is able to spread cryptocurrency mining malware.
Charlie Osborne is a cybersecurity journalist and photographer who writes for ZDNet and CNET from London.
A new type of information stealer has been added to the Haskers Gang malware portfolio.
Simple steps can make the difference between losing your online accounts or maintaining what is now a precious commodity: Your privacy.
On Thursday, researchers from Cisco Talos said that the malware, dubbed ZingoStealer, is being offered for free to Haskers Gang Telegram group members.
Active since at least 2020, the Haskers Gang group isn't your typical, small collective of cybercriminals. Instead, the 'community ' comprises of a few founders -- likely based in Eastern Europe -- and thousands of casual members.
Haskers Gang communicates via Telegram and Discord to share 'community ' updates, tools, and its latest activities. The Telegram group has just under four thousand subscribers who share tips on cracks, crypters, bypassing security measures, and hacking software. Telegram is also abused to manage the malicious executables and exfiltrated data packages.
The attackers target gamers through cheat codes, pirated software, and cracks, and tend to focus on Russian-speaking victims, according to the researchers.
The new ZingoStealer information stealer can harvest account credentials, Chrome and Firefox browser data, and Discord tokens, among other datasets. In addition, the malware will try to tap into any cryptocurrency wallet credentials held by browser extensions from services including BitApp, Coinbase, Binance, and Brave.
ZingoStealer may also be used in conjunction with other malware strains including RedLine Stealer.
RedLine Stealer contains your typical stealer functions alongside the ability to harvest VPN account credentials and login details, impacting vendors including NordVPN, OpenVPN, and ProtonVPN. In January, Fortinet observed the malware being spread in a phishing campaign taking advantage of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Furthermore, ZingoStealer can also be used to deploy a cryptocurrency miner on infected systems. Also known as cryptojacking, cybercriminals may quietly execute a cryptocurrency miner in attacks that steal computing power to mine for coins -- and these virtual assets are sent to wallets controlled by threat actors.
In this case, a custom version of XMRig, a Monero ( XMR) miner, is deployed. The hackers internally refer to this miner as `` ZingoMiner. ''
ZingoStealer was first released in March this year. Even though it is a new form of malware, its code has already undergone extensive development and there are multiple versions in the wild.
However, while a free version of ZingoStealer has been released, the threat group is also attempting to cash in with a subscription version, also known as malware-as-a-service ( MaaS), which costs roughly 300 roubles ( $ 3). This variant also contains a crypter called ExoCrypt. It is possible multiple threat groups will adopt the stealer in the future, especially as a free option is available.
`` While the malware is new, Cisco Talos has observed that it is undergoing consistent development and improvement and that the volume of new samples being observed in the wild continues to increase as more threat actors attempt to leverage it for nefarious purposes, '' the researchers said.
Clueless hackers spent months inside a network and nobody noticed. But then a ransomware gang turned up
She wanted a Samsung Galaxy S22. Verizon stopped her from getting it
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California delays COVID-19 vaccine mandate for schools until at least summer 2023 | SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California is delaying a coronavirus vaccine mandate for schoolchildren until at least the summer of 2023.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’ s administration announced the change on Thursday.
California was the first state to announce it would require all schoolchildren to receive the coronavirus vaccine. But the mandate will not take effect until federal regulators give final approval to the vaccine for children. That hasn’ t happened yet.
California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said school districts would need more time to implement the mandate once federal approval happens. State officials say the mandate will not happen before July 1, 2023.
California is one of two states, plus the District of Columbia, that has announced a coronavirus vaccine mandate for K-12 public schools, according to the National Academy for State Health Policy. | business |
Why the iPhone inventor won't be investing in the metaverse | Tony Fadell, the engineer who helped invent the iPhone, founded Nest and now runs an investment firm that has backed more than 200 startups, has strong opinions and is not afraid to shout about them.
Here are two for starters: Europe is going to lead the climate tech revolution — and investing in the metaverse is a harmful “ diversion of resources ”.
The world, says Fadell, is experiencing a “ Holy Shit moment ” as it grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic, a “ horrifying, devastating war ” in Ukraine and looming environmental disaster.
But, ever the optimist, Fadell says that these massive challenges also create extraordinary opportunities. A new generation of purposeful startups is inventing creative solutions to problems that will not only improve our planet but may turn into trillion-dollar businesses, too.
“ Everything is going to change over the next 20 years, ” he says. “ Every product you use today will be changed. ”
Fadell’ s Future Shape investment and advisory fund, which writes cheques between $ 250k and $ 25m but declines to reveal the overall scale of its investments, is heavily focusing on climate tech startups. It’ s already invested in alt-meat giant Impossible Foods and synthetic diamond producer Diamond Foundry in the US, and is actively exploring investments in a cleaner environment, better crops and healthier seas in Europe too.
Earlier this month, Paris-based Future Shape participated in the $ 73m Series B by Sweep, the French carbon management platform, which Fadell claims is a world leader in its field. It’ s also invested in Nothing, the smartphone manufacturer that aspires to rival Apple.
Other public European portfolio investments include Aectual, a Dutch carbon neutral 3D-printing company, and Aryballe, a French odour digitisation startup.
“ If you are a cleantech investor the best place to go is right here in Europe and that includes the UK, ” he says. Europe enjoys more progressive environmental regulation, more progressive companies and more progressive societies than most other parts of the world. “ It is wonderful to be here. ”
As a private fund, with no outside LPs, Fadell says that Future Shape can move fast and focus on the long term. Its aim is to help “ incredible scientists and engineers ” take their ideas from the lab into real life. “ We call ourselves mentors with money, ” he says, focusing a lot on helping entrepreneurs tell their stories in compelling ways.
As someone who has worked closely with Steve Jobs, has successfully played the startup game and has now become an active VC investor, Fadell says he is constantly asked for advice. In response, he has summarised what he has learnt in a book called “ Build: An Unorthodox Guide to Making Things Worth Making ”, published next month.
“ Every day at Future Shape I get tons and tons of the same questions. The selfish reason for writing the book is so I don’ t have to say the same things over and over again, ” he laughs.
“ The religion of Silicon Valley is reinvention, disruption — blowing up old ways of thinking and proposing new ones. But certain things you can’ t blow up. Human nature doesn’ t change ”
“ Build ” is a jaunty book, dispensing as much life advice as startup coaching. It covers the standard fare of how to achieve product-market fit, build a business and raise money. But it deals with the human side as well: how to overcome startup growth breakpoints, deal with assholes and know when to quit. “ In the end, there are two things that matter: products and people, ” Fadell writes.
He acknowledges that much of his advice is old school. “ The religion of Silicon Valley is reinvention, disruption — blowing up old ways of thinking and proposing new ones. But certain things you can’ t blow up. Human nature doesn’ t change, regardless of what you’ re building, where you live, how old you are, how wealthy or not, ” he writes.
He also accepts, in our interview, that the best way to learn how to run a startup is to start running a startup. “ There is no startup school. You have to get a PhD in it by doing it. ” Failure may be an inevitable result of inexperience but that also provides the best learning experience. “ It is only failure if you do not have another go. The first iPhone was a disaster. But we just kept going, ” he says.
What excites Fadell as an investor today is how business is becoming democratised as more entrepreneurs can access cheap technological tools, easy finance and global markets. “ I think that we can widen the universe ” of entrepreneurs, he says. What has also changed since the last cleantech boom and bust of 10 to 15 years ago is that governments and consumers are now “ screaming ” for action on the environment. Carbon border taxes can provide an economic incentive for green investment, too.
He is, however, worried that surging investment in the metaverse will suck energy out of climate tech. “ The metaverse is a false choice. It is a diversion of resources. Either you are part of the problem or part of the solution. If you invest in the metaverse you are part of the problem, ” he says.
VCs can make money from moving around digital bits, but it is only by moving around physical atoms that we will solve the climate crisis.
John Thornhill is Sifted’ s editorial director and cofounder. He is also innovation editor of the Financial Times, and tweets from @ johnthornhillft | tech |
Twitter gave rise to Elon Musk's fame, and amplified his ideas | Elon Musk has lived large in the public imagination since the early days of his life as an entrepreneur— espousing big ideas for tackling big problems, and unafraid to engage with fans and foes in public forums.
And no where else more than on Twitter,
the company he has bid for on Thursday
.
To many of his followers and admirers, Musk’ s persona on the social-media platform occupies a place somewhere between a Steve Jobs heir apparent and a real-life Tony Stark.
Here are some of Musk’ s most-talked about tweets, starting with the perhaps most famous, or infamous, of all: his “ going private ” tweet, which sparked a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’ s investigation and suit that was later settled.
Related:
Elon Musk seeks to end SEC’ s supervision over ‘ going private’ tweets
Aug. 7, 2018
Musk surprises investors with a tweet saying he is considering taking Tesla private at $ 420 a share.
In his tweet, Musk claims that “ funding [ has been ] secured, ” without providing any details. His tweet leads to questions from federal regulators as to whether the “ funding secured ” claim was factual.
July 15, 2018
Musk launches a vicious Twitter attack against one of the men who helped rescue a group of youth soccer players from a Thai cave, calling him a “ pedo ” after the man, Vernon Unsworth, criticized Musk’ s failed bid to aid the boys. Musk later deleted the tweet, but plenty of people had it screenshot.
July 19, 2018
Musk apologizes for his attack, saying his words were “ spoken in anger. ” A Los Angeles jury would later find that Musk did not defame Vernon Unsworth in calling him “ pedo guy. ”
April 1, 2018
Musk jokingly tweets about Tesla going bankrupt.
May 23, 2018
Musk posts a series of tweets attacking the media, including one in which he says he intends to create a site “ where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication. ”
“ Thinking, ” he says, referencing the Soviet state newspaper whose name means “ truth, ” “ of calling it Pravda … ”
Sept. 6-7, 2018
Musk lights up the internet and heads to the top of Google’ s trending searches after appearing to smoke marijuana during an interview on “ The Joe Rogan Experience ” podcast. The interview went viral, and sparked a range of reactions — and memes.
Following news of his Twitter stake and invitation to join the board, which he later turned down, Musk tweeted the meme:
By the end of 2018, Musk had logged more than 400 tweets, and the attention they gathered only grew.
The year 2019 was relatively quiet, with Musk first tweeting about dogecoin, perhaps at least at first jokingly:
In 2020, however, Musk would go on to engage in a fight with San Francisco Bay Area authorities over local shutdown orders that kept the Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-3.66%
factory in Fremont, Calif., shuttered. The factory was then Tesla’ s only U.S. car-making plant.
May 9, 2020
In the same exchange, Musk went on to say he’ d move Tesla out of California. He made
good on the threat in October
, moving headquarters to the Austin, Texas area from Palo Alto, Calif.
Musk spread misinformation about the pandemic in several tweets in 2020, using the platform to promote a discredited drug and amplify dubious takes on the pandemic, to cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 tests, and to call for an end of public-health measures put in place to curb the spread of the novel virus.
April 28, 2020
He predicted on March 19, 2020 that the U.S. would have “ zero ” COVID-19 cases by the end of April. By then, the U.S. was averaging more than 30,000 new cases daily. | business |
COVID-19: Vaccination greatly reduces infectious viral load, study finds -- ScienceDaily | A research team from the University of Geneva ( UNIGE) and the University Hospitals of Geneva ( HUG) measured the infectious viral load of nearly 600 symptomatic patients to detect possible differences between the original virus, Delta and Omicron sublineage BA.1, as well as according to vaccination status. They discovered that Delta causes a higher viral load than the original virus and the Omicron variant. For Delta and Omicron breakthrough infections, vaccination drastically reduces the viral load. In the case of Omicron, however, the decrease was only observed after three doses of vaccine. Furthermore, Omicron's very high infectiousness is seemingly related to factors other than viral load alone. These results, to be read in the journal Nature Medicine, highlight the benefit of vaccination for public health in addition to individual protection against the severe form of the disease, and remind us that variants of the virus must be closely monitored to prevent further massive outbreaks.
The diagnosis of COVID-19 consists of a PCR test performed on a nasopharyngeal or salivary swab. `` This test is very effective in identifying infected people, but does not indicate whether they are infectious, that is, capable of transmitting the virus to other people, '' says Isabella Eckerle, professor in the Department of Medicine at UNIGE Faculty of Medicine and head of the HUG-UNIGE Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases, who led this work. `` However, the notion of contagiousness is essential for deciding on collective prevention measures, such as periods of isolation. ''
PCR tests can only detect the presence of viral RNA, but do not indicate whether the virus is still intact and able to spread. The measurement of the infectious viral load necessarily involves culturing the virus for several days in a biosafety level 3 laboratory, a procedure impossible to perform routinely.
Lower viral load due to vaccination
Since the beginning of the pandemic, samples taken at the HUG screening centre have been kept for research purposes, with the authorisation of the persons concerned. `` We were able to reanalyze samples from previous waves of the disease, '' explains Benjamin Meyer, a researcher at the Centre for Vaccinology in the Department of Pathology and Immunology at UNIGE Faculty of Medicine. `` We measured the infectious viral load of 3 cohorts of patients during the first 5 symptomatic days to compare the viral load caused by the original virus ( 118 samples, spring 2020), the Delta variant ( 293 samples, fall 2021) and the Omicron variant sublineage BA.1 ( 154 samples, winter 2022), as well as, for the last two cohorts, whether a significant difference could be detected in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. ''
Overall, the infectious viral load for the Delta cohort was significantly higher than that of the cohort with the original virus. However, people infected by Delta who received two doses of mRNA vaccine had a significantly lower infectious viral load than unvaccinated people. `` For the Omicron cohort, contrary to what can be assumed given its rapid spread, the infectious viral load was overall lower than that of the Delta cohort, '' says Isabella Eckerle. In contrast, only people who were boosted ( that is, having received three doses of the vaccine) had their viral load decreased; people who received two doses only had no benefit in this regard compared to unvaccinated people. `` This is immunologically consistent: many vaccines require 3 doses spaced several months apart to induce a sustained immune response, such as that against Hepatitis B virus, '' explains Isabella Eckerle.
Omicron: a variant far away from the previous ones
Why is the Omicron variant so contagious, if the viral load it induces is lower than its predecessors? `` We still don't know, but our data suggest that other infectious mechanisms are at play, '' explains Pauline Vetter, clinic director at the HUG-UNIGE Center for Emerging Diseases. `` It is now clear that the mutations of Omicron strongly differentiate it from other variants, allowing it to partially escape the vaccine, and diminish the effectiveness of some antiviral treatments used so far. '' However, vaccination has been shown to be useful in limiting the occurrence of severe symptoms and most likely also the transmission of the virus. Indeed, in countries where the population, especially the elderly, is poorly vaccinated, Omicron has proven to be just as deadly.
The Geneva study also shows that the knowledge acquired for previous variants must be updated every time a new variant emerges to be able to adapt the means of combating COVID-19. `` In view of our results, the greatest caution should be exercised in the face of a virus whose evolution is not fully understood, and against which currently existing treatments lose some of their effectiveness, '' conclude the authors.
This work was carried out thanks to grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation ( SNSF), the Pictet Group's Fondation Ancrage bienfaisance and the HUG Private Foundation. | science |
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