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Bed Bath & Beyond's stock shoots up after reaching 'cooperation agreement ' with activist investor Ryan Cohen | Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.
BYND,
-3.86%
shot up 8.6% in premarket trading Friday, after the home goods retailer announced a `` cooperation agreement '' with activist investor Ryan Cohen and RC Ventures LLC. As part of the agreement, Bed Bath will add three of RC Ventures ' nominees to its board as new independent directors. Cohen and RC Ventures, which are beneficial owners of 9.8% of Bed Bath's outstanding shares,
have criticized the company's `` scattershot strategy ''
that has failed to stem the `` tailspin '' in its business that has persisted since before the COVID-19 pandemic, and urged the company to look for ways to unlock value for shareholders. Cohen is the co-founder of Chewy Inc.
CHWY,
+0.83%
and chairman of GameStop Corp.
GME,
+6.71%
Bed Bath's stock has run up 51.6% year to date, but has tumbled 23.3% over the past 12 months. In comparison, the SPDR S & P Retail ETF
XRT,
-1.31%
has lost 9.5% over the past year while the S & P 500
SPX,
+0.51%
has rallied 15.6%. | business |
The 2022 Oscars Go All in on Streaming | When the 94th Academy Awards air on Sunday night, viewers will see a parade of movies that never actually made it to the theaters. Streaming giant
Netflix
is nominated
for 27 Oscars
, more than any other studio, while AppleTV+ has six nominations and Amazon Studios has four. Numerous other nods came for films that made their debut simultaneously in theaters and streaming platforms from
Walt Disney
and Warner Bros.
After being slow to accept streaming, Hollywood has gone all in. But the embrace comes as streaming’ s original benefactors—3,000 miles away on Wall Street—have
started to lose faith
.
Despite a pandemic bump, shares of Netflix ( ticker: NFLX) have gone sideways for the past three years. Over the past 12 months, the stock has not just underperformed the broad market, but also shares of the country’ s leading movie theater chains,
AMC Entertainment Holdings
( AMC) and
Cinemark Holdings
( CNK). Shares of Walt Disney ( DIS), which runs the No. 2 streaming platform in Disney+, have fallen 27% in a year.
As the critical acclaim builds, the business of streaming is
facing tough questions
. With the exception of Netflix, no one is making money in streaming today. Instead, the industry remains in a land-grab phase, with companies throwing tens of billions of dollars into original series and movies, marketing, and promotions in an effort to win subscribers. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the top 10 streaming companies will spend some $ 130 billion on content in 2022, up 10% from last year.
Subscriber growth, which once sent shares of Netflix and Disney soaring, is no longer enough.
“ Investors have gone from wanting subs, subs, subs at any cost, to ‘ OMG is there a financial model?’ ” says LightShed Partners’ Rich Greenfield. “ There’ s a recognition that streaming is a heck of a lot harder than it looks. ”
The most consumer-friendly feature of streaming—the ability to cancel subscriptions at any time—has put the business at a financial disadvantage to cable, which locked customers into long-term contracts with bloated bundles of channels.
Keeping cancellations, or “ churn, ” down is the holy grail for subscription businesses that rely on recurring revenue. But low streaming churn, it’ s now clear, requires regular infusions of new content and thus heavy spending to keep viewers engaged. More streaming entrants has meant more choice for consumers, which forces more spending.
Today’ s streaming landscape ranges from
Paramount Global
( PARA), home to one of the country’ s earliest movie studios, to Silicon Valley giants like
Amazon.com
( AMZN) and
Apple
( AAPL), which can fund their streaming habit from their piles of cash.
The growing rivalries spawned the idea of the “ streaming wars, ” but recent years have demonstrated that this isn’ t a winner-takes-all game: American households subscribed to an average of 4.5 services last year, according to J.D. Power, spending an average of $ 55 a month on streaming subscriptions. The typical cable package
still costs $ 98
, according to Wall Street research firm MoffettNathanson, which suggests more room for growth as customers continue to cut their cable cord in favor of on-demand streaming options.
It’ s no coincidence that cable penetration in the U.S. peaked in the early 2010s at around 100 million subscribers, just as Netflix introduced its first original TV series,
House of Cards
.
Since then, cord-cutting has picked up steam. Pay-TV subscriptions fell by more than 5% last year, according to MoffettNathanson. Today, fewer than 70 million U.S. households pay for a bundled TV subscription, like cable or satellite.
While Netflix and other streaming stocks have hit a rough patch, the slow transition away from cable TV means there is
opportunity for investors
. Shares of Netflix and Walt Disney still look like long-term winners.
Netflix’ s first-mover advantage, global scale, and massive content budget differentiates the service and will keep subscribers growing from a recent 222 million. Plus, there is upside to profit margins from planned price increases around the world.
Netflix will also have the distinction of being a profitable streaming service in 2022, years ahead of competitors. On average, Wall Street analysts are forecasting almost $ 900 million in free cash flow for the company this year, scaling into the billions in the coming years. Netflix began buying back stock last year and should continue to do so.
At a recent $ 371, Netflix stock trades at 32 times expected earnings per share for the coming 12 months. Over the past five years, that forward multiple has averaged 71. Netflix no longer deserves that, but the company’ s growth and increasing profitability should merit a more premium valuation.
READ MORE
Oscar Awards Put Netflix, Apple and HBO in the Spotlight
Welcome to Prime, James Bond. Amazon Completes MGM Deal.
Disney+ Is Adding an Ad-Supported Tier. Now, Its Strategy Is More in Line With Rivals.
A Guide to Watching the Academy Awards Show and Oscars Nominees
Over the past five years, Netflix’ s price-to-earnings multiple has been 1.6 times its estimated earnings growth. After a flat, reset year coming out of the pandemic, Wall Street analysts expect Netflix to grow earnings by 30% in 2023. That could justify a P/E somewhere between 40 and 50.
With a forward P/E of 40 times, Netflix shares would be worth $ 438, nearly 20% above recent levels. Wall Street analysts are more bullish: Their average price target is $ 509, about 40% upside.
Disney has an enviable content library and huge content budget of its own. It also has the media industry’ s largest legacy business, spanning cable networks, Hollywood studios, and theme parks around the world. Shares have badly trailed the market over the past year as streaming subscriber growth missed high expectations and Covid-19 continued to weigh on theme park attendance.
That segment is expected to do a lot of the heavy lifting in the next few years, with a postpandemic rebound at Disney’ s parks and a corresponding recovery in sales and profits. The company is holding an investor day focused on its parks experience on Monday, March 28.
In the meantime, the company’ s equally large TV networks segment is forecast to continue its secular decline, while management doesn’ t expect streaming to break even until Disney’ s fiscal 2024, which ends in September. The company’ s Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ streaming services ended 2021 with nearly 200 million subscribers combined. The second half of this fiscal year will be a big one for Disney+, with a bevy of new content debuts and dozens of international launches planned.
Shrinking losses at Disney’ s streaming segment, combined with a rebound in profits at theme parks, should bring rapid profit growth for the company over the next three years. Analysts forecast a compound annual growth rate of 42%, about four times the
S & P 500
average.
But Disney’ s P/E ratio is just 1 times that growth; that so-called PEG ratio is about 1.5 times for the S & P 500. Meanwhile, there isn’ t a single Sell rating on Disney stock from Wall Street, where the average price target implies gains of 35% from here.
At Amazon and Apple, streaming is growing, but it doesn’ t quite move the needle for the stocks. The companies’ streaming services are attracting Hollywood talent, adding selected live sports titles, and they don’ t have legacy media businesses to defend—but they are relatively small parts of massive tech businesses. Amazon
spent $ 8.5 billion on MGM
and its library of more than 4,000 films and 17,000 TV episodes—less than 1% of its market value.
For everyone else, streaming economics—and the constant battle with churn—will remain difficult. In a note to clients earlier this year, MoffettNathanson’ s Michael Nathanson suggested that Netflix’ s early success had spoiled investors around streaming: “ The ‘ ease’ in which Netflix has penetrated the world to date may actually have created a false comparison for others now chasing this opportunity. ”
The streaming challenge is driving consolidation. The coming month will likely bring the close of the merger between
Discovery
( DISCA) and
AT & T
’ s
( T) WarnerMedia. Warner Bros. Discovery, as the combined company will be called, unites HBO Max and Discovery+, which had 74 million and 22 million streaming subscribers at the end of 2021, respectively, plus numerous cable TV channels. Postmerger cost savings, combined scale, and complementary content assets should put WBD in a better position to succeed in streaming.
For the stock, however, there is likely to be turbulence in store. AT & T shareholders will receive 0.24 share of WBD for each of their shares, worth 71% of the combined company. That largely telecom- and dividend-focused shareholder base likely won’ t be as interested in holding on to a media company betting on a streaming pivot. Shares could face meaningful selling pressure after the deal closes, expected next month. And many investors and analysts will likely want to hear management’ s unified plans for the combined company—and its strategy for paying down WBD’ s considerable post-transaction debt.
Warner Bros. Discovery will have a major role in the future of streaming, but investors could soon have a better entry point for the shares.
Streaming’ s No. 5 player, Paramount Global, raised eyebrows at an investor day last month when it doubled down on its streaming strategy. The company, which until recently
was known as ViacomCBS
, raised its subscriber target to 100 million by the end of 2024, versus its prior target of up to 75 million, and up from the 56 million viewers on its Paramount+ and Showtime services at the end of 2021. New international markets, plus partnerships with
T-Mobile US
( TMUS) and
Comcast
’ s
( CMCSA) Sky, could help boost subscriber growth in the coming year.
But holding on to them won’ t be cheap. Management expects annual content investment to triple in the next three years, and for streaming losses to increase this year and next before declining. Despite a new name, Paramount is still largely a legacy media company in the midst of a risky and ambitious shift to streaming.
For investors, the high risk could mean high reward. If Paramount pulls off its strategy, the stock could rally. The shares trade for just 13 times forward earnings, making Paramount a value investor’ s way to play streaming, says Chris Marangi, co-CIO for value at Gamco Investors. There’ s likely a floor on the stock because of the potential for a merger with a fellow media company looking to bulk up or a tech giant looking to expand its content offerings.
The Paramount, CBS, and Viacom libraries have value, as does the company’ s content-production capabilities. The same thought exercise around consolidation could be applied to any of the legacy media companies.
Amazon’ s deal for MGM valued the studio and its library at about 28 times 2020 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, of $ 307 million—the last available year of financials before Amazon’ s takeover offer. Paramount, by contrast, currently trades at just 8 times its Ebitda for 2021. At 14 times, just half the MGM multiple, Paramount’ s enterprise value would be $ 62 billion, or 65% above its current value.
At the same 14 times 2021 Ebitda, Comcast’ s NBCUniversal segment, which is making a big streaming push through its nascent Peacock service, would be worth nearly $ 80 billion.
Family control at both Paramount and Comcast could be an obstacle to deal making, but further media consolidation may be a requirement for real streaming success.
AMC Networks
( AMCX) and
Fox
( FOXA) are taking different approaches to streaming. Fox is just dipping its toes into the business, with a Fox Nation subscription service for Fox News superfans and Tubi, a free advertising-supported service with 41,000 library titles and minimal original content. That’ s one fairly low-cost way of monetizing existing content for Fox, but hardly the all-in strategy that other legacy media companies are pursuing. Fox sold the majority of its entertainment assets to Disney in a 2019 megatransaction and is focusing on live news and sports. ( Fox and News Corp, the parent company of
Barron’ s
publisher Dow Jones, share common ownership.)
“ We’ re in the bleachers, watching this bloodshed that’ s going on, ” said Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch at an investor day earlier this month. “ We’ re enjoying the show, and we’ re not spending billions and billions of dollars trying to chase the fourth position in [ streaming. ] ”
MoffettNathanson’ s sole Buy rating in media is on Fox shares, with a $ 50 price target—versus current levels around $ 41. The firm sees value in Fox’ s strong position in live news and sports.
If Netflix is meant to be one size fits all, AMC’ s portfolio of services are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Its brands include Shudder, for horror seekers; Acorn TV, for British TV fans; HiDive, for anime; AllBlk, billed as “ inclusively but unapologetically Black ”; along with AMC Plus, Sundance, and IFC Films Unlimited.
Those are smaller services that appeal to specific demographics or audiences. The niche focus requires less content and marketing spending, management argues, with fewer subscribers needed to break even.
“ Simply put, we’ re not trying to be something for everyone, ” AMC’ s interim CEO Matt Blank said on the company’ s fourth-quarter earnings call last month. “ We are instead trying to be everything to someone. ”
AMC ended 2021 with more than nine million streaming subscribers across its services. The company is aiming for 25 million subscribers by the end of 2025. Starz owner
Lions Gate Entertainment
( LGF.A) has a similarly targeted streaming approach.
“ Niche streaming services should have stronger retention characteristics because their value proposition is more specific and subscribers have a better idea of what to expect upfront, ” Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall wrote recently.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMC Networks’ earnings to be flat to down in each of the next three years, but the content being created will have value. The endgame could be a big payout similar to MGM’ s.
While it’ s Hollywood handing out the streaming awards right now, Wall Street bankers could soon be offering some big prizes of their own.
Write to
Nicholas Jasinski at
nicholas.jasinski @ barrons.com | business |
Southeast Asia Is Surging Postpandemic. Where to Invest. | Not all the world news is bad these days. Southeast Asia, a dynamic growth belt that sprawls from Malaysia to the Philippines, is ditching pandemic restrictions at last, promising an economic rebound for 650 million or so citizens.
Australian tourists returned to the Indonesian paradise of Bali, Vietnam dropped quarantine for foreign visitors, and Singapore greenlighted large gatherings—among other developments from the past few weeks. “ Except for China, the whole region is just living with Covid, ” says Rahul Chadha, chief investment officer for Asia at Mirae Asset Global Investments.
That should
accelerate growth
, which was already revving in the second half of 2021, despite rising prices for commodities and food inflation. Regional giant Indonesia is looking for gross domestic product expansion above 5% for 2022. The Philippines, No. 2 by population, could hit 7%. Investors have two broad choices for playing this revival: consumer companies and tourism. Jerry Goh, a Singapore-based investment manager at asset manager abrdn, is betting on the consumer,
particularly in Indonesia
, which thanks to its coal and nickel riches is a net commodities exporter.
The
iShares MSCI Indonesia
exchange-traded fund ( ticker: EIDO) has already advanced 9% this year, while global emerging markets lost 7%.
Goh sees more gains to come in financial stocks such as
Bank Negara Indonesia
( BBNI.Indonesia). He’ s also high on the nation’ s top mall operator,
Pakuwon Jati
( PWON.Indonesia), and motor vehicle distributor
Astra International
( ASII.Indonesia), whose product line ranges from motorcycles to heavy equipment.
With a third of Indonesia’ s 280 million people unbanked, a battle is raging for dominance in digital finance and innovations like “ buy now, pay later, ” notes Angus Mackintosh, founder of Jakarta-based CrossASEAN Research.
Bank Central Asia
( BBCA.Indonesia), the country’ s biggest, is defending turf from online upstarts like
Bank Jago
( ARTO.Indonesia), whose shares have climbed by half over the past year. Mirae’ s Chadha is more focused on beaten-down tourism stocks. “ People everywhere want to get out of their homes, ” he reasons. “ There’ s huge pent-up demand. ”
Ground zero for tourist reopening is Thailand, which prepandemic relied on foreign visitors for a fifth of its GDP. Bellwether stocks like
Airports of Thailand
( AOT.Thailand) and
Kasikornbank
( Kbank.Thailand) have suffered accordingly. Thai resorts can’ t boom again without cooperation from China, which supplied up to 40% of their clientele in better days. Chadha takes Hong Kong’ s recent Covid easing, and mainland China’ s shift to shorter lockdowns, as signs they could be back later this year. He’ s also buying
Lemon Tree Hotels
( LEMONTRE.India), a popular Indian chain, and China’ s own travel platform
Trip.com Group
( TCOM).
Less optimistic is Louis Lau, director of investments at Brandes Investments. China, locked into its zero-Covid policy, will keep its citizens home until next year. Global inflation will hit Southeast Asian wallets. Indonesia and the Philippines, which have kept interest rates at record lows so far, will both be forced to hike this year, curtailing growth, he predicts. “ By and large things are moving in the right direction, ” Lau says. “ But short-term headwinds are making us cautious. ”
He is holding positions in casinos in Malaysia and China’ s Macau region, figuring Asians will flock back to the gaming tables at first opportunity. Still, by and large moving in the right direction is better than some other emerging markets out there. We’ ll take it for now. | business |
Etsy boycott: sellers call company's fee hike 'pandemic profiteering ' | More than 8,000 people have signed a petition calling on Etsy to call off plans to raise fees for sellers on its platform — and some Etsy makers are threatening to go on strike.
The fee increase, which is set to begin April 11, 2022, will raise the e-commerce site’ s transaction fees from 5% per order to 6.5% per order, according to the
company’ s annual report
.
The petition posted to Coworker.org by Etsy
ETSY,
-6.13%
seller Kristi Cassidy is addressed to company CEO Josh Silverman, and refers to the raised fee as “
pandemic profiteering
. ”
“ They plan to increase our transaction fees by 30%, ” the petition says. “ We’ re going on strike on April 11 to call on Etsy to hold itself accountable to sellers and buyers. Sellers will put their shops on vacation mode in protest. Buyers can show support by agreeing to boycott Etsy from April 11-18. ”
See also:
S & P 500 edges into positive territory, U.S. stocks trade mixed as oil erases loss
The petition also lists other desired changes from Etsy sellers, such as cracking down on resellers — those selling mass produced goods, instead of items they make themselves, which some argue goes against the site’ s self-described identity as an online shop for “ handmade, vintage, custom, and unique gifts. ”
Etsy said that the raised fees will help them weed out these resellers, however.
“ We’ re committed to supporting our community of 5.3 million sellers around the world by helping them grow their businesses. Sellers have consistently told us they want us to expand our efforts around marketing, customer support, and removing listings that don’ t meet our policies, ” an Etsy spokesperson told MarketWatch. “ Our revised fee structure will enable us to increase our investments in each of these key areas so that we can better serve our community and keep Etsy a beloved, trusted, and thriving marketplace. ”
Etsy last increased its seller fees in 2018
from 3.5% to 5%, resulting in similar negative feelings from some makers on the platform. For example, the raised fee forced Etsy seller Christian Adair to move items he was selling from Etsy to his personal online shop following the fee hike, he told
MarketWatch in 2018
.
In February, Etsy reported
fourth-quarter gross merchandise sales of $ 4.2 billion
, a 16% increase year over year. Etsy’ s stock has spiked since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with shares up 246.6% over the last two years.
The
“ Cancel the fee increase ” petition
says that, “ even though it’ s the hard work of Etsy’ s sellers who’ ve made it the massively successful company it is today, we have fewer rights and less of a voice in our workplaces than ever. ” | business |
AM Best Revises Outlooks to Stable for Ansvar Insurance Limited | SINGAPORE -- ( BUSINESS WIRE) -- AM Best has revised the outlooks to stable from negative and affirmed the Financial Strength Rating of A- ( Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of “ a- ” ( Excellent) of Ansvar Insurance Limited ( Ansvar) ( Australia).
These Credit Ratings ( ratings) reflect Ansvar’ s balance sheet strength, which AM Best assesses as very strong, as well as its marginal operating performance, limited business profile and appropriate enterprise risk management. In addition, Ansvar’ s ratings factor in rating enhancement to reflect its ownership, integration and support from Ecclesiastical Insurance Office plc ( EIO).
The revision of the outlooks to stable follows increased financial and reinsurance support provided to Ansvar by EIO, which AM Best views as an effective response to counteract recent pressure on Ansvar’ s operating performance and balance sheet strength fundamentals.
Over the past three years ( 2019-2021), Ansvar has exhibited heightened volatility and a deteriorating trend in operating performance, with its underwriting results having been hampered by weather-related events, COVID-19 provisioning and material reserve increases emanating from physical and sexual abuse ( PSA) claims. In 2021, the company recorded a sizable operating loss and a net combined ratio in excess of 130% driven by a higher-than-expected volume of new PSA claims arising predominantly from legacy exposures.
EIO has taken a series of actions in support of Ansvar’ s response to these performance pressures and to mitigate the impact on the company’ s balance sheet strength position. Recent and planned capital injections from the parent have helped to bolster Ansvar’ s capital adequacy and offset the adverse impact of COVID-19 provisions and material increases in PSA reserves. The company’ s risk-adjusted capitalisation, as measured by Best’ s Capital Adequacy Ratio ( BCAR), was at the very strong level in 2021.
EIO is also providing significant intra-group reinsurance protection to Ansvar in 2022. This includes the renewal of a PSA excess-of-loss cover and the placement of a new stop loss programme, both of which are expected to substantially limit downside risk to operating performance and balance sheet strength fundamentals over the near term. Beyond this, AM Best expects Ansvar and EIO to continue to review and consider the requirement for these intra-group reinsurance arrangements, with group support expected to remain available if Ansvar’ s performance volatility persists.
Ratings are communicated to rated entities prior to publication. Unless stated otherwise, the ratings were not amended subsequent to that communication.
This press release relates to Credit Ratings that have been published on AM Best’ s website. For all rating information relating to the release and pertinent disclosures, including details of the office responsible for issuing each of the individual ratings referenced in this release, please see AM Best’ s Recent Rating Activity web page. For additional information regarding the use and limitations of Credit Rating opinions, please view Guide to Best’ s Credit Ratings. For information on the proper use of Best’ s Credit Ratings, Best’ s Preliminary Credit Assessments and AM Best press releases, please view Guide to Proper Use of Best’ s Ratings & Assessments.
AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specialising in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. For more information, visit www.ambest.com.
Copyright © 2022 by A.M. Best Rating Services, Inc. and/or its affiliates. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Yi Ding Senior Financial Analyst +65 6303 5021 yi.ding @ ambest.com
Christopher Sharkey Manager, Public Relations +1 908 439 2200, ext. 5159 christopher.sharkey @ ambest.com | general |
Will Sanctions on Russia Work? The Ukraine Invasion Has Created a New Coalition. | Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his address to the nation at the Kremlin in Moscow on February 21, 2022.
Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images
About the author:
Paula Stern
is the President of the Stern Group, former chairwoman of the U.S. International Trade Commission, and author of
Water’ s Edge: Domestic Politics and the Making of American Foreign Policy.
Will economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies work to roll back Russia’ s attack on Ukraine? Has the U.S. learned from its
past experience
imposing sanctions on Russia? It is still early days, but there is reason to believe this time may be different.
America has a long history of sanctioning Russia that is rooted in the domestic political fact that Americans all come from “ someplace else. ” They remain connected to overseas brethren, and urge Washington to intervene on their behalf.
Social media turbocharges these links. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has capitalized on these realities to pressure President Biden to intervene against Russia.
America’ s earliest economic face-offs with Russia were tame. In 1912, the U.S. applied economic leverage by withdrawing from the 1832 Russo-American bilateral Treaty of Commerce and Navigation. American abrogation of that treaty was a response to Tsarist Russia’ s mistreatment of naturalized Jewish Americans returning to Russia.
In the 1970s, a different immigration matter played a leading role in U.S.-Soviet diplomacy. Congress urged President Nixon to use economic weapons against Soviet emigration restrictions imposed mainly on Soviet Jews wishing to get to the West.
A bipartisan congressional coalition ultimately blocked President Nixon’ s detente policy with the USSR. Sen. Henry “ Scoop ” Jackson, a Cold Warrior with presidential ambitions, faced off with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Jackson rallied a broad coalition of the left and right that included religious and human rights proponents plus ethnic Americans with ties to so-called captive nations behind the “ Iron Curtain. ”
Jackson and his allies ultimately scuttled Nixon’ s pledge to the Soviet leaders to loosen post-World War II economic restrictions on the USSR. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment remained on U.S. law books from its enactment in 1974 until 2012 when it was replaced by the Magnitsky Act, another expression of U.S. distaste for Russian human rights policies.
The Nixon-era tug of war over Jewish emigration lasted two- and one-half years. In 2022, the policy shift has taken a few days.
Congress, on a bipartisan basis, is
primed to eliminate
Russia’ s most-favored nation status, despite bitter partisanship in every other area. Within days, the U.S. initiated financial and energy sanctions against an expanding list of Russian targets.
What probably surprised Russian President Vladimir Putin most, however, was the
freeze
on Russian Central Bank reserves. The Biden administration has continued rolling out export controls. The U.S.
banned
Russian energy imports. The UK will soon follow.
A total of
46 nations
are now cooperating to squeeze Russia’ s elite. On March 2, the U.S. established Task Force
KleptoCapture
to go after “ dark money. ” Private Russians are estimated to hold as much as $ 920 billion in offshore wealth.
America’ s efforts over the years to alter Russian behavior have been met with mixed, and even disappointing, results. But now much has changed.
First, there is unity between the Biden administration and Congress, which was not the case in the Jackson-Vanik battle.
Second, the Biden administration was prepared probably because the U.S. had a trial run in 2014 when Russia grabbed Crimea and more modest sanctions were imposed. Biden’ s top advisers who had occupied related positions in the Obama Administration apparently gained valuable experience.
Third, there is unprecedented diplomatic cooperation with leading economies in Europe and Asia. Authorities acted at lightning speed, taking by surprise Putin who thought he had amassed a foreign currency reserve that would insulate him from economic sanctions. This contrasted with 2014, when U.S. allies were tepid in response to Russian military operations in Crimea and the separatist areas of the Donbas. This time, the Biden administration had adroitly laid the foundation for close allied coordination.
Fourth, global corporations operating in Russia are more sensitive to risk. In the 1970s, few foreign corporations even operated in the USSR. In 2022, executives at corporate global headquarters want to avoid taint by association with Russia. Roughly 400 companies have announced plans to pull out of Russia. Others have suspended activities.
Fifth, Russia today is not the USSR. The Soviet Union was not integrated with the world economy the way Russia had become. The Russian stock market crashed after the invasion, and only re-opened this week with
heavy restrictions
on trading. The ruble has dropped like a stone. Russia’ s foreign reserves have shriveled.
Putin’ s order to invade Ukraine is sending Russia back to a Soviet style autarky. Putin seems to know and accept that, but will other Russians? That said, could the United States and its allies succeed at causing Russia severe pain but fail at changing Putin’ s idea fixe and
gaining control
of Ukraine?
China
is a big question mark. Putin has backed Russia into an uncomfortable dependence on the People’ s Republic of China. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping both want to challenge U.S. hegemony, but China is far more a part of the global economy.
While Chinese arms and technology still reflect its early dependence on the Soviet Union, China has a far more sophisticated economy. Now Russia needs China to maintain decent levels of consumption and to provide weapons and parts for its military and civil aviation fleets.
Russia needs China more than the reverse.
China has experienced a terrible harvest and needs Russia’ s grains. China is also negotiating to purchase more Russian oil and coal—no doubt at bargain basement prices.
China, however, has been the greatest beneficiary of globalization. Foreign private and public investments from the West have helped lift millions out of poverty.
At this moment, however, Covid saps China’ s growth, a concern for Xi, who seeks internal calm and control particularly in the months leading to September when he plans to be reelected for an unprecedented third five year term.
China
rejected
Russia’ s request for Chinese aviation parts, Russian news agencies reported, lest it suffer an export-control boycott by the U.S.-led coalition. China has to worry about America’ s novel “ secondary sanctions ” on industrial parts and replacements that contain U.S. content including intellectual property such as software codes.
The principal concern of those hoping economic sanctions will succeed is whether Biden can sustain U.S. domestic political support. Since politics doesn’ t stop at America’ s water’ s edge, even during this dire moment, there are opportunistic Republican politicians who may not be willing to stay the course when economic measures bite here at home.
Sen. Marco Rubio
( R., Fla), has found a wedge issue and began accusing China of “ sanction-busting ” —perhaps an echo of Scoop Jackson’ s Cold War rhetoric of the 1970s?
We are at a moment in history that reminds us of
Back to the Future
, but this movie is different from the Cold War version. The world is experiencing a tectonic geostrategic shift that could make the U.S. coalition of market economies the winner of this 21st-century round of economic warfare.
Russia’ s attack has stimulated a closer union of Western economies that presents China with a long-term challenge. It also provides America and Europe an opportunity to wake up from a global economic slumber dating back to the 1970s during which time China—with 1.4 billion people—has become the world’ s preeminent producer of consumer goods and much else.
Hopefully, the U.S. will seize this moment as a wakeup call. America’ s 20th-century economic hegemony may have expired, but the U.S. is still powerful in science and technology. China knows it.
America has a lot of work to do to maintain its place in the world that it has taken for granted for so long. It will take political leaders on both sides of the aisle to rise to the moment, and that is a huge unknown.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’ s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit commentary proposals and other feedback to
ideas @ barrons.com
. | business |
Stock-market investors should watch this part of the yield curve for the 'best leading indicator of trouble ahead ' | Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury
yield curve for inversions,
a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.
They don’ t always agree on
which part of the curve
is best to watch though.
“ Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone, ” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.
“ That’ s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly. ”
An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’ s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.
Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.492%
and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell
to 13 basis points on Tuesday
, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.
Read:
The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’ s what investors need to know
But that’ s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range
from a few days to 30 years
, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.
“ The focus has been on the 10s and 2s, ” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.
“ I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook, ” he said, calling it “ the best leading indicator of trouble ahead. ”
Watch 10-year, 3-month
Instead of falling, that
spread climbed
in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic ( see chart).
The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing
Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management
“ The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’ s target rate, ” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.
“ So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks. ”
Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S & P 500 index
SPX,
+0.19%
and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-0.46%
still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.
By watching the 10s and 2s
TMUBMUSD02Y,
2.301%
spread, “ You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years, ” Stephens said. “ So, effectively, it’ s working with a lag. ”
On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “ there’ s a recession, it’ s almost two years, ” he said, predicting that with
unemployment recently pegged around 3.8%
that, “ this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong. ”
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month
TMUBMUSD03M,
0.537%
and 10-year curve relationship its “ preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions, ” such as
in 2019,
back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.
“ Did it see COVID coming? ” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.
A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.
“ There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality, ” Duffy said. “ We’ ve always said look at many signals. ” | business |
Opinion: Preparing for the great sunset: What you need to know if tax code provisions expire | The hot equities and housing markets have contributed to a surge in U.S. household wealth during the pandemic.
According to the
Federal Reserve
, household wealth grew by $ 19 trillion to $ 137 trillion during the pandemic, increasing American household net worth by 16%. Baby boomers, the first generation of retirement savers, saw their nest eggs grow sharply over the past few years. In addition to being flush in cash and growing their wealth, baby boomers have benefited from selling their homes at peak prices. For this demographic, it’ s no wonder that taxes have quickly risen to the top of their concerns.
There has been a great deal of tax uncertainty as the Biden administration continues to explore tax policy changes. What might be more certain and should be on everyone’ s radar is the great sunset looming with the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ( TCJA).
Sunsets are provisions of the tax code that expire at a specified date. With the TCJA, Congress chose to make many of the individual provisions temporary to limit the revenue cost of the TCJA to a level consistent with the overall constraint on the 10-year revenue loss in the Congressional Budget Resolution. Moreover, to comply with Senate budget rules under the process used to pass the tax act, there can be no increase in the federal budget deficit after the 10th year.
The TCJA made significant changes to individual income taxes as well as estate and gift taxes. For
individual taxpayers
, almost all these provisions expire or “ sunset ” at the end of 2025, while most business provisions are permanent. Without additional tax policy changes, the tax year of 2026 will be a big shock to many U.S. taxpayers and will especially hit boomers hard as many settle into retirement with big taxable nest eggs.
What expires with the sunset? Here are the most notable sunset provisions.
Income taxes and deductions
For individual taxpayers, the top individual, estate and trust income tax bracket goes back up to 39.6% from the current rate of 37%. The TCJA also repealed personal exemptions, but increased the standard deduction of which this year is $ 25,900 for joint filers and $ 12,950 for single taxpayers. For families with dependents, it replaced the dependent exemptions with an increased child tax credit, by doubling the maximum per child credit amount and extending it to higher-income families by substantially increasing the income thresholds for the benefit phase out.
The TCJA removed the phaseout for the overall allowable
itemized deduction
impacting higher income filers with AGI above certain thresholds, but also changed the structure of several major itemized deductions. Under prior tax law, those who itemize could claim deductions for all state and local property taxes ( SALT) and the greater of income or sales taxes ( subject to various limits on itemized deductions). TCJA limited the itemized deduction for total state and local taxes to $ 10,000 annually, for both single and joint filers, and did not index that limit for inflation.
The mortgage interest deduction also changed. Prior to the TCJA, taxpayers could deduct interest on mortgage payments associated with the first $ 1 million of indebtedness incurred to purchase ( or substantially renovate) a primary and secondary residence plus the first $ 100,000 in home equity debt. For taxpayers taking new mortgages after the effective date, TCJA limited the deductibility to the interest on the first $ 750,000 of home mortgage debt and suspended the deductibility on home-equity loans unless they are used to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’ s home.
Alternative minimum tax
TCJA retained the individual AMT but raised both the exemption levels and the income threshold at which the AMT exemption phases out to $ 1 million for married individuals and $ 500,000 for others. The exemption amounts and phase out thresholds continue to be indexed for inflation.
Charitable giving
In general, a tax deduction for
charitable donations was preserved
. In fact, for 2018 through 2025, the annual deduction limit for cash contributions to public charities increased from 50% of AGI to 60% of AGI, and will sunset back to 50% in 2026. ( There was also an increase to 100% of AGI for cash contributions to qualifying charities as part of COVID relief acts for 2020 and 2021.)
Estate and gift tax
For many boomers, the sunset of the current estate and gift tax provisions provides the greatest gloom. TCJA doubled the estate and gift tax exemption to $ 11.2 million for single filers, $ 22.4 million for couples, and continued to index the exemption levels for inflation. This year, the federal estate and gift tax threshold increased to $ 12.06 million per individual, $ 24.12 million for couples. In 2026, the estate and gift exemption will revert to pre-TCJA levels, effectively reduced by half, and expected to be in the ballpark of $ 6.5 million per individual or $ 13 million for a married couple.
The sunset of the estate and gift exemption will have a significant impact on many boomers. For families with a net worth exceeding $ 24 million it is important to shore-up their estate plans and where possible take advantage of the high exemption amount using estate and gifting strategies. The IRS has provided clarity on how significant gifts will be accounted for prior to 2026 when a death occurs in 2026 or later. In general, you benefit if you gift more than the estate and gift exemption amount expected for 2026. For example, if an individual gifts $ 12 million now and the gift and estate exemption becomes $ 6.5 million in 2026, they have moved an additional $ 5.5 out of their estate tax-free. This gets complex really quickly and should only be done with the guidance of your expert estate attorney and accountant.
For boomers in the position of having a taxable estate above $ 13 million now or by 2026, due to years of saving, healthy retirement accounts, home values that have skyrocketed, employment stock options, inheritances or even a sale of a business will now be looking forward, or better said, not looking forward to an impending federal taxable estate. Estate planning will become equally important to these families as their wealth grows and they experience additional wealth events.
It’ s also important to mention that if you live in a state with a state estate tax or inheritance tax, you likely already have cause for estate planning. There are a host of estate and gifting strategies to explore. Again, due to complexity, utilize the guidance of your expert advisers including your attorney and accountant.
Of course there is the potential of new tax legislation before the sunset in 2026. With that said, waiting to see what will happen may put you at risk of running out of time to put a prudent and thoughtful plan in place. Working together with a team of advisers, such as your financial adviser, your attorney and your tax adviser to put a holistic plan in place understanding both the tax provisions today and in 2026 will help make any sunset what it should be, great.
RBC Wealth Management does not provide tax or legal advice. All decisions regarding the tax or legal implications of your investments should be made in consultation with your independent tax or legal adviser.
RBC Wealth Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, registered investment adviser and Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC. | business |
Delivering for children in emergencies: UNICEF’ s response in Ukraine and beyond | Right now, I 'm in Lviv, western Ukraine and my job is to support our UNICEF country office in the emergency response to the war. All of our work is centred around getting life-saving supplies to children and their families, most urgently within Ukraine but also to those displaced in neighbouring countries.
My day-to-day activities include reviewing the most needed items, finding ways to build a strong pipeline to make sure our supplies are arriving, and then organizing for them to get delivered as quickly as possible to the communities and children that need them. Thanks to the quick actions of colleagues, the country office set up a warehouse in Lviv and it has been running at full speed to receive supplies, mainly from UNICEF Supply Division’ s warehouse in Copenhagen. From here, we send them by road or rail throughout the country. I’ ve been joined by Supply Division colleagues Fergal and Omar to support the new warehouse and country office logistics team. It’ s all hands-on-deck and it’ s been great to see colleagues rolling up their sleeves and helping to load and offload trucks.
In any emergency that I’ m sent to support, my job is to make sure I’ m giving the country office the help it needs. They are the ones working hard while dealing with the worry of having family and friends in danger.
The situation in Ukraine is extremely worrying. As of today ( 25 March 2022), 4.3 million children – more than half of the country’ s estimated 7.5 million child population – have been displaced. This includes more than 1.8 million children who have crossed into neighbouring countries as refugees.
Within the country, the situation continues to deteriorate rapidly, and children are in desperate need of protection. As I crossed the border from Poland to Ukraine, there were so many children and women moving in the other direction. What struck me was not only seeing children and their mothers carrying what they could, including their few precious belongings or pets, but there were also many elderly women. It really hits home that there are so many vulnerable groups caught in the middle of this war.
`` The focus is on making it happen, so as windows of opportunity open, we’ re taking full advantage to move supplies. ''
UNICEF was one of the first organizations to get supplies across the border, which meant we could start distributing essential items quickly. In the west of Ukraine, we are seeing a lot of internally displaced people, while in the rest of the country there are many cities encircled and under heavy fire.
A few days ago, we hit the milestone of 1,000 metric tonnes of emergency supplies dispatched to Ukraine and the bordering countries of Moldova, Poland and Romania. We are delivering a mix of goods that includes health supplies, hygiene kits, education and recreation items for children and teenagers, as well as winter clothing and blankets for babies and children up to the age of 14.
These are especially important as it has been bitterly cold. Supplies delivered to the surrounding countries have mostly been sent to support ‘ Blue Dot’ centres, a joint initiative between UNICEF and UNHCR. These one-stop safe spaces provide information to traveling families, help to identify unaccompanied and separated children and ensure their protection from exploitation, and are a hub for essential services.
Finding transport options to carry our supplies to the hardest hit cities is difficult, but we’ re looking at every option to move large quantities as fast as we can. Just this week, we were thrilled to hear that a train carrying UNICEF supplies made it Kharkiv in the north of Ukraine. The city has been under intense attack, and we had to move quickly to get supplies on the train. On-board was everything from medical kits to clothing and blankets. The country office team are leaving no stone unturned to find ways to distribute these goods. The focus is on making it happen, so as windows of opportunity open, we’ re taking full advantage to move supplies.
Winter clothes and blankets are important because the temperature is really low. We also have a demand for health supplies, including medicines, midwifery and surgical kits, which are going to become more and more critical so that clinics and hospitals can continue to take care of patients. Water and sanitation supplies are always amongst the most important items we procure, meaning people have a secure and safe supply of drinking water. But we still face huge challenges getting supplies to areas that are currently inaccessible. Humanitarian corridors are a necessity for UNICEF and any other organization trying to deliver life-saving goods and services.
UNICEF is responding to several major emergencies at the moment. Afghanistan and Yemen are perhaps the two biggest in terms of volume of supplies being shipped. Children in both countries face a perilous situation which is affecting their right to grow up in safety, avail of health care, receive adequate nutrition and an education.
I spent three years in Afghanistan and it’ s a country that will always be very close to my heart. Having spent a lot of time working on school construction and textbook printing I’ m very concerned about children, especially girls, getting access to the education they deserve. Also, the issue of malnutrition is worrying me right now. We see that parents are struggling to feed their infants and children, and when they can, the food doesn’ t always contain enough essential vitamins and nutrients. It’ s a massive emergency that we can't take our eyes off and it's continuing to take a lot of effort to get the volume of supplies needed into the country. Logistics in Afghanistan are extremely challenging as it is a landlocked country with harsh winters that can cut off road access to many parts of the country, but we are always working to overcome these hurdles.
We need to be able to react at a moment’ s notice to natural disasters and we’ ve seen our fair share of these in recent months. Since December, typhoons have hit the Philippines, while Madagascar experienced multiple storms in the space of a few weeks. Tonga also reeled from both a volcanic eruption and a tsunami in January.
Tonga was perhaps one of the most logistically challenging locations for us because of its distance from our regular supply bases. But a Brisbane supply hub worked extremely well, and the UNICEF country and regional offices were able to quickly send in initial supplies including essential water, sanitation and hygiene kits, water containers and buckets, tarpaulins, recreational kits, and tents.
In terms of preparedness, we maintain critical stocks of emergency supplies at our primary warehouse in Copenhagen and in other global hubs including Dubai, Guangzhou and Panama City. However, it’ s not just the sudden onset natural disasters that we track, but other emergencies such as the escalating drought in Somalia are on our radar too.
`` There’ s no better feeling for a logistician than standing on a tarmac watching a plane full of supplies touch down. Or seeing a truck loaded with supplies leaving a warehouse knowing they’ re going to children who need them. ''
I’ ve worked for UNICEF for 14 years in six different postings. I’ ve seen first-hand how the supplies we deliver save and change lives and that’ s why I love what I do so much. It’ s hard to pick just one example because I have seen the value in so many of the items we send.
In Zimbabwe, I know that we were able to save lives by helping to stop the acute watery diarrhoea epidemic with water, sanitation and hygiene items, while the textbooks we delivered helped to change lives through learning. In Afghanistan, I visited hospitals and held a newborn where our health supplies were at work. My favourite supply item in Afghanistan was the blue UNICEF backpack and I always keep my eyes out for them being worn by girls and boys on their way to or from school. In Somalia, working on hospital and primary health care centre rehabilitation was so important for me, especially during COVID-19 to help ensure that people have access to basic health care.
There’ s no better feeling for a logistician than standing on a tarmac watching a plane full of supplies touch down. Or seeing a truck loaded with supplies leaving a warehouse knowing they’ re going to children who need them. And while every emergency is different, the end goal never changes – to reach as many children as possible as fast as we can.
Humanitarian needs are escalating rapidly for Ukraine’ s children. UNICEF and partners are working around the clock to ensure they get support.
See how UNICEF mobilizes life-saving supplies for children by working toward early recovery, long-term development and preparedness for the future. | general |
Management strategies and outcomes in renal transplant recipients recovering from COVID-19: A retrospective, multicentre, cohort study | BackgroundThere is an enormous knowledge gap on management strategies, clinical outcomes, and follow-up after kidney transplantation ( KT) in recipients that have recovered from coronavirus disease ( COVID-19).MethodsWe conducted a multi-center, retrospective analysis in 23 Indian transplant centres between June 26, 2020 to December 1, 2021 on KT recipients who recovered after COVID-19 infections. We analyzed clinical and biopsy-confirmed acute rejection ( AR) incidence and used cox-proportional modeling to estimate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios ( HR) for predictors of AR. We also performed competing risk analysis. Additional outcome measures included graft loss, all-cause mortality, waiting time from a positive real-time polymerase test ( RT-PCR) to KT, laboratory parameters, and quality of life in follow-up.FindingsAmong 372 KT which included 38 ( 10·21%) ABO-incompatible, 12 ( 3·22%) sensitized, 64 ( 17·20%) coexisting donors with COVID-19 history and 20 ( 5·37%) recipients with residual radiographic abnormalities, the incidence of AR was 34 ( 9·1%) with 1 ( 0·26%) death censored graft loss, and 4 ( 1·07%) all-cause mortality over a median ( interquartile range) follow-up of 241 ( 106–350) days. In our cox hazard proportional analysis, absence of oxygen requirement during COVID-19 compared to oxygen need [ HR = 0·14 ( 0·03–0·59); p-value = 0·0071 ], and use of thymoglobulin use compared to other induction strategies [ HR = 0·17 ( 0·03–0.95); p-value = 0·044 ] had a lower risk for AR. Degree of Human leukocyte antigen ( HLA) DR mismatch had the highest risk of AR [ HR = 10.2 ( 1·74–65·83); p-value = 0·011 ]. With competing risk analysis, with death as a competing event, HLA DR mismatch, and oxygen requirement continued to be associated with AR. Age, gender, obesity, inflammatory markers, dialysis vintage, steroid use, sensitization and ABO-incompatibility have not been associated with a higher risk of AR. The median duration between COVID-19 real time polymerase test negativity to transplant was 88 ( 40–145) days ( overall), and ranged from 88 ( 40–137), 65 ( 42–120), 110 ( 49–190), and 127 ( 64–161) days in World Health Organization ordinal scale ≤ 3, 4, 5, and 6–7, respectively. There was no difference in quality of life, tacrolimus levels, blood counts, and mean serum creatinine assessed in patients with a past COVID-19 infection independent of severity.InterpretationOur findings support that the outcomes of KT after COVID-19 recovery are excellent with absence of COVID-19 sequelae during follow-up. Additionally, there does not seem to be a need for changes in the induction/immunosuppression regimen based on the severity of COVID-19.FundingSanofi
There is an enormous knowledge gap on management strategies, clinical outcomes, and follow-up after kidney transplantation ( KT) in recipients that have recovered from coronavirus disease ( COVID-19).
We conducted a multi-center, retrospective analysis in 23 Indian transplant centres between June 26, 2020 to December 1, 2021 on KT recipients who recovered after COVID-19 infections. We analyzed clinical and biopsy-confirmed acute rejection ( AR) incidence and used cox-proportional modeling to estimate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios ( HR) for predictors of AR. We also performed competing risk analysis. Additional outcome measures included graft loss, all-cause mortality, waiting time from a positive real-time polymerase test ( RT-PCR) to KT, laboratory parameters, and quality of life in follow-up.
Among 372 KT which included 38 ( 10·21%) ABO-incompatible, 12 ( 3·22%) sensitized, 64 ( 17·20%) coexisting donors with COVID-19 history and 20 ( 5·37%) recipients with residual radiographic abnormalities, the incidence of AR was 34 ( 9·1%) with 1 ( 0·26%) death censored graft loss, and 4 ( 1·07%) all-cause mortality over a median ( interquartile range) follow-up of 241 ( 106–350) days. In our cox hazard proportional analysis, absence of oxygen requirement during COVID-19 compared to oxygen need [ HR = 0·14 ( 0·03–0·59); p-value = 0·0071 ], and use of thymoglobulin use compared to other induction strategies [ HR = 0·17 ( 0·03–0.95); p-value = 0·044 ] had a lower risk for AR. Degree of Human leukocyte antigen ( HLA) DR mismatch had the highest risk of AR [ HR = 10.2 ( 1·74–65·83); p-value = 0·011 ]. With competing risk analysis, with death as a competing event, HLA DR mismatch, and oxygen requirement continued to be associated with AR. Age, gender, obesity, inflammatory markers, dialysis vintage, steroid use, sensitization and ABO-incompatibility have not been associated with a higher risk of AR. The median duration between COVID-19 real time polymerase test negativity to transplant was 88 ( 40–145) days ( overall), and ranged from 88 ( 40–137), 65 ( 42–120), 110 ( 49–190), and 127 ( 64–161) days in World Health Organization ordinal scale ≤ 3, 4, 5, and 6–7, respectively. There was no difference in quality of life, tacrolimus levels, blood counts, and mean serum creatinine assessed in patients with a past COVID-19 infection independent of severity.
Our findings support that the outcomes of KT after COVID-19 recovery are excellent with absence of COVID-19 sequelae during follow-up. Additionally, there does not seem to be a need for changes in the induction/immunosuppression regimen based on the severity of COVID-19.
Research in context Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed and Google scholar through December 1, 2021, for articles published with the following MeSH terms: “ COVID-19″ or “ SARS-CoV-2″ and “ recovery ”, or “ recovered ”, and “ transplantation ”. There was no restriction of language or date or type of articles in our literature search. With coronavirus disease ( COVID-19) spreading in all regions of the world, the condition became an inevitable concern for transplantation. Existing publications prior to our analysis yielded only case reports with limited and short-term follow-up. Added value of this studyWe performed a multicentre, retrospective, observational cohort study representing the largest analysis of 372 COVID-19 recovered recipients and 64 donors with co-existing COVID-19 history reporting the longest median ( interquartile range) follow-up duration of 241 ( 106–350) and 373 ( 243–446) days after kidney transplantation and COVID-19 infection, respectively. The median duration between COVID-19 negativity by real time polymerase testing to transplantation was 88 ( 40–145) days ( overall); this time period increased in parallel to COVID-19 severity. We found that the acute rejection, graft loss, and patient survival was excellent. Furthermore, outcomes were similar for high-risk transplants including sensitized and ABO incompatible recipients. The outcomes of cases where both donor and recipient had COVID-19 were also favourable. In our multivariable analysis, recipients who did not require oxygen during COVID-19 infection and those who received thymoglobulin had lower rates of rejection. Human leukocyte antigen DR mismatch was associated with highest risk of rejection. In addition, we successfully performed transplantation in 20 ( 5.37%) recipients with residual radiographic abnormalities. We did not observe post-COVID-19 sequelae during our follow-up. Implications of all the available evidenceThis report suggests that there is no need for any alteration in induction or immunosuppressive regimen in recipients of kidney transplants who have recovered from COVID-19. The outcome and follow-up course of these patients are excellent and also not complicated by any COVID-19 sequelae.
We searched PubMed and Google scholar through December 1, 2021, for articles published with the following MeSH terms: “ COVID-19″ or “ SARS-CoV-2″ and “ recovery ”, or “ recovered ”, and “ transplantation ”. There was no restriction of language or date or type of articles in our literature search. With coronavirus disease ( COVID-19) spreading in all regions of the world, the condition became an inevitable concern for transplantation. Existing publications prior to our analysis yielded only case reports with limited and short-term follow-up.
We performed a multicentre, retrospective, observational cohort study representing the largest analysis of 372 COVID-19 recovered recipients and 64 donors with co-existing COVID-19 history reporting the longest median ( interquartile range) follow-up duration of 241 ( 106–350) and 373 ( 243–446) days after kidney transplantation and COVID-19 infection, respectively. The median duration between COVID-19 negativity by real time polymerase testing to transplantation was 88 ( 40–145) days ( overall); this time period increased in parallel to COVID-19 severity. We found that the acute rejection, graft loss, and patient survival was excellent. Furthermore, outcomes were similar for high-risk transplants including sensitized and ABO incompatible recipients. The outcomes of cases where both donor and recipient had COVID-19 were also favourable. In our multivariable analysis, recipients who did not require oxygen during COVID-19 infection and those who received thymoglobulin had lower rates of rejection. Human leukocyte antigen DR mismatch was associated with highest risk of rejection. In addition, we successfully performed transplantation in 20 ( 5.37%) recipients with residual radiographic abnormalities. We did not observe post-COVID-19 sequelae during our follow-up.
This report suggests that there is no need for any alteration in induction or immunosuppressive regimen in recipients of kidney transplants who have recovered from COVID-19. The outcome and follow-up course of these patients are excellent and also not complicated by any COVID-19 sequelae.
According to data accessible on the Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation website, the total annual number of organ transplants performed in India has increased from 4990 in 2013 to 12,666 in 2019. Similarly, the rate of organ donation has increased twofold since 2013 ( 340 in 2013 versus 715 in 2019).1Kute V.B. Ramesh V. Rela M. On the way to self-sufficiency: improving deceased organ donation in India.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1625-1630Google Scholar Currently, India is ranked third for transplantation activities behind the United States, and China. The coronavirus disease ( COVID-19) pandemic has had a negative influence on organ donation, and transplantation activities in India with total organ transplant rates of 7443 in 2020 compared to 12,666 in 2019.2Kute V.B. Meshram H.S. Mahillo B. Dominguez-Gil B. Transplantation in India and China during the COVID-19 pandemic.Lancet Public Health. 2022; 7 ( JanPMID: 34995539): e12https: //doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667 ( 21) 00280-2Google Scholar As of December 1, 2021, India had the second-most COVID-19 cases worldwide. Since the emergence of the pandemic, solid organ transplantation ( SOT) has been recognized as particularly impacted by COVID-19 with higher rates of mortality and morbidity in transplant recipients.3Avery R.K. Chiang T.P. Marr K.A. et al.Inpatient COVID-19 outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients compared to non-solid organ transplant patients: a retrospective cohort.Am J Transplant. 2021; 21: 2498-2508Google Scholar Patients waiting for organ transplants have also been shown to be adversely affected.4Mohan S. King K.L. Husain S.A. Schold J.D. COVID-19-associated mortality among kidney transplant recipients and candidates in the United States.Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2021; 16: 1695-1703Google Scholar Owing to the logistics and changing priorities during the pandemic, a marked decline in transplantation rates have been observed across the globe.5Loupy A. Aubert O. Reese P.P. Bastien O. Bayer F. Jacquelinet C. Organ procurement and transplantation during the COVID-19 pandemic.Lancet. 2020; 395: e95-e96Google Scholar,6Aubert O. Yoo D. Zielinski D. et al.COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide organ transplantation: a population-based study.Lancet Public Health. 2021; 6: e709-e719Google Scholar Indian transplant centers have the largest living donation programs worldwide and transplant volume declined the most during this pandemic.1Kute V.B. Ramesh V. Rela M. On the way to self-sufficiency: improving deceased organ donation in India.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1625-1630Google Scholar,2Kute V.B. Meshram H.S. Mahillo B. Dominguez-Gil B. Transplantation in India and China during the COVID-19 pandemic.Lancet Public Health. 2022; 7 ( JanPMID: 34995539): e12https: //doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667 ( 21) 00280-2Google Scholar,7Meshram H.S. Kute V.B. Swarnalatha G. et al.Effect of coronavirus disease 2019 on transplantation and nephrology in india: a nationwide report from India [ published online ahead of print, 2021 Oct 2 ].Transplant Proc. 2021; ( S0041-1345 ( 21) 00684-9. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.transproceed.2021.09.008) Google Scholar With higher risks of COVID-19 affecting immunocompromised patients, it has also not been clear if a modification of immunosuppression is required. Of particular relevance, it has also been unclear on how to treat patients that have recovered from COVID-19 awaiting transplantation. The existing literature has been limited to a few case reports and series with short term follow up.8Bharat A. Machuca T.N. Querrey M. et al.Early outcomes after lung transplantation for severe COVID-19: a series of the first consecutive cases from four countries.Lancet Respir Med. 2021; 9: 487-497Google Scholar Of interest, many reports on living donor transplants during COVID-19 originate from developing nations.9Kute V.B. Godara S. Guleria S. et al.Is it safe to be transplanted from living donors who recovered from COVID-19? Experience of 31 kidney transplants in a multicenter cohort study from India.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 842-850Google Scholar, 10Kute V.B. Ray D.S. Yadav D.K. et al.A multicentre cohort study from India of 75 kidney transplants in recipients recovered after COVID- 19.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1423-1432Google Scholar, 11Kulkarni A.V. Parthasarathy K. Kumar P. et al.Early liver transplantation after COVID-19 infection: the first report.Am J Transplant. 2021; 21: 2279-2284Google Scholar Many data on deceased donation during COVID-19, in turn, originate from the developed world due to their robust deceased donation program.12Santeusanio A.D. Bhansali A. Rana M. Lerner S. Shapiro R. Kidney transplantation in patients with prior coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID-19).Clin Transplant. 2021; 35: e14288Google Scholar, 13Varotti G. Dodi F. Garibotto G. Fontana I. Successful kidney transplantation after COVID-19.Transplant Int. 2020; 33: 1333-1334Google Scholar, 14Hogan J. Kwon T. Paye-Jaouen A. Fait C. Cointe A. Baudouin V. Kidney transplantation in a COVID-19-positive pediatric recipient.Transplantation. 2021; 105: e74-e75Google Scholar, 15Murad H. Dubberke E. Mattu M. Parikh B. Wellen J. Alhamad T. Repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing after recovery. Is a pretransplant PCR necessary?.Am J Transplant. 2021; 21: 3206-3207Google Scholar, 16Puodziukaite L. Serpytis M. Kundrotaite A. et al.Kidney transplantation from a SARS-CoV-2-positive donor for the recipients with immunity after COVID-19.Transpl Infect Dis. 2021; 23: e13666Google Scholar, 17King C.S. Mannem H. Kukreja J. et al.Lung Transplantation for Patients With COVID-19.Chest. 2022; 161: 169-178https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.chest.2021.08.041Google Scholar, 18Yoshinaga K. Araki M. Wada K. et al.Successful deceased donor kidney transplantation to a recipient with a history of COVID-19 treatment.J Infect Chemother. 2021; 27: 1097-1101Google Scholar, 19Seet C. Dabare D. Forbes S. Khurram M. Mohamed I.H. Kidney transplant surgery in a recipient with COVID-19 at the time of transplantation.Transplantation. 2021; 105: e54-e55Google Scholar, 20Tuschen K. Anders J. Elfanish A. et al.Renal transplantation after recovery from COVID-19 - a case report with implications for transplant programs in the face of the ongoing corona-pandemic.BMC Nephrol. 2021; 22: 251Google Scholar, 21Singh N. Tandukar S. Zibari G. Naseer M.S. Amiri H.S. Samaniego-Picota M.D. Successful simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplant in a patient post-COVID-19 infection.Kidney Int. 2020; 98: 1615-1616Google Scholar
The authors have previously reported a multicentre cohort study from India with 75 kidney transplantation ( KT) in recipients recovered after COVID- 19 during the first wave.10Kute V.B. Ray D.S. Yadav D.K. et al.A multicentre cohort study from India of 75 kidney transplants in recipients recovered after COVID- 19.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1423-1432Google Scholar The study included only 22 ( 29·33%) patients requiring oxygen, and had a limited median follow-up 81 ( 56–117) days. Also, the previous study was conducted in the initial wave of pandemic where variants had not emerged. Longer follow-up and a standardized characterization of the severity of patient and donor COVID-19 is therefore necessary to better understand the impact of prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ( SARS-CoV-2) infections on SOT recipients. We aimed to explore management strategy, transplant outcomes, safety, short and long-term follow-up of KT conducted in COVID-19 recovered patients. This report provides useful insights to transplant professionals across the globe supporting decisions on optimal timing to proceed with transplants and optimal immunosuppressive protocols that will critically determine outcomes.
This multicentre, retrospective, cohort study was conducted at transplant centres across India between June 26, 2020 ( the index transplant date of the study) to December 1, 2021 ( last follow-up date). Through a nationwide collaboration of 23 participating centres ( Supplementary Table 1), data of a total of 372 KT in COVID-19 recovered patients were collected. The study was approved by the ethical committee of Institute of Kidney Diseases and Research center and Dr. HL Trivedi Institute of Transplantation Sciences, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. We abided with the declaration of Helsinki, the declaration of Istanbul, and the Transplantation of Human Organs and Tissues Act in conducting transplantation throughout all the centres. We strictly adhered to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology guidelines for reporting of observational studies. Written informed consent was taken from donor-recipient pairs prior transplantation. We included all recipients that recovered from SARS-CoV-2 prior to transplantation based on nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 real-time polymerase chain reaction ( SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR) sample. We excluded cases with the following criteria: 1) Patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 through an antibody test. 2) Patients who met only clinical criteria for COVID-19.
We defined acute COVID-19 as the time from symptoms onset in a donor/recipient to clinical recovery with or without RT-PCR positive. Data were retrieved from case files, and electronic medical records, including but not limited to demographic characteristics ( age, sex, height, weight, and body mass index), blood group, comorbidities, dialysis vintage, native kidney disease, mode of dialysis, cytomegalovirus serology, donor-specific antibody ( DSA), induction regimen used, Human leukocyte antigen ( HLA) mismatches at different loci ( A, B, DR), laboratory test results ( pre-transplant routine tests, and inflammatory markers during COVID-19), timeline from COVID-19 to surgery, and treatment received during COVID-19 ( corticosteroids, anti-coagulation, and remdesivir). COVID-19 severity was graded based on the World Health Organization 7-point ordinal scale22WHO R & D blueprint novel coronavirus COVID-19 therapeutic trial synopsis. February 18, 2020. Geneva, Switzerland. https: //www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/COVID-19 Treatment Trial Design Master Protocol synopsis Final 18022020.pdf. Last Accessed on 10 Dec 2021Google Scholar which included the following categories: 1 - at home with resumption of normal activities; 2 - at home but difficulty to resume normal activities; 3 - hospitalized without requiring supplemental oxygen; 4 - admitted to hospital, and requiring low flow oxygen devices; 5 - requiring high-flow nasal cannula ( HFNC) / non-rebreather mask ( NRBM); 6 - needing non-invasive mechanical ventilation ( NIV); 7 - needing the support of invasive mechanical ventilation ( MV). The EuroQol five-dimension five-level ( EQ-5D-5 L) questionnaire and the EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale ( EQ-VAS) were used to assess quality of life ( QOL). The EQ-5D-5 L is a validated questionnaire, which has also been previously used in organ transplantation23Li B. Cairns J.A. Draper H. et al.Estimating health-state utility values in kidney transplant recipients and waiting-list patients using the EQ-5D-5L.Value Health. 2017; 20: 976-984Google Scholar to evaluate the patient quality of life based on five domains: mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain or discomfort, and anxiety or depression. Categorization within each domain was divided further from 1 to 5, where 1 represents no difficulty and 5 stands for extreme difficulty.24Herdman M. Gudex C. Lloyd A. et al.Development and preliminary testing of the new five-level version of EQ-5D ( EQ-5D-5L).Qual Life Res. 2011; 20: 1727-1736Google Scholar The EQ-VAS is a patient's subjective assessment of overall health, ranging from 0 ( worst) to 100 ( best health). QOL was assessed at the last follow-up time of recipient at participating transplant centres. In addition, we assessed a retrospective pre-operative QOL. Primary outcomes included the rate of AR ( both clinical and biopsy-proven) and risk factors for rejection. The secondary outcomes included graft loss ( defined as return to maintenance dialysis or re-transplantation), patient's death ( mortality due to any cause), COVID-19 after transplant ( defined as a repeat RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infection which is irrespective of the clinical severity), blood counts ( white blood cell counts ( WBC) and Lymphocyte counts trends at follow-up), immunosuppression levels ( tacrolimus levels), quality of life ( addressed by EQ-5D-5 L and EQVAS scores).
Evaluation of donors–recipient pairs have been detailed in our previous publications9Kute V.B. Godara S. Guleria S. et al.Is it safe to be transplanted from living donors who recovered from COVID-19? Experience of 31 kidney transplants in a multicenter cohort study from India.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 842-850Google Scholar,10Kute V.B. Ray D.S. Yadav D.K. et al.A multicentre cohort study from India of 75 kidney transplants in recipients recovered after COVID- 19.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1423-1432Google Scholar We adhere to the Indian Society of Organ Transplantation consensus statement for kidney transplant recipients and living donors with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19 and adhere to the National Organ and Tissue Transplant Organization transplant specific guidelines with reference to COVID-19.25Kute V. Guleria S. Prakash J. et al.NOTTO transplant specific guidelines with reference to COVID-19.Indian J Nephrol. 2020; 30: 215-220Google Scholar It suggests, using standard drugs and doses of induction and maintenance immunosuppressive regimen based on the recipient's immune risk stratification as was being practised before COVID‑19 in the respective transplant centres. We did not modify our immunosuppression in patients with COVID-19, irrespective of severity or gap from recovery. We did not use any induction ( including interleukin-2 ( IL-2) blocker) in well-matched recipients who received transplants from related donors.10Kute V.B. Ray D.S. Yadav D.K. et al.A multicentre cohort study from India of 75 kidney transplants in recipients recovered after COVID- 19.Transplantation. 2021; 105: 1423-1432Google Scholar In brief, transplants were performed with prior COVID-19 with the following prerequisite ( a) two documented negative PCR tests including or additional one negative test at the time of transplant surgery, ( b) complete symptom resolution for at least 28 days, ( c) normal chest imaging by high resolution computed tomography scan or Roentgenogram chest which are showing no signs of active infection ( d) written, and informed consent of the unknown risks including, but not limited to, reactivation or recrudescence of COVID-19 symptoms, impact on the kidney allograft, and potential for poor long-term outcome. ( e) COVID-19 free transplant pathway with dedicated transplant team to reduce the risk of transmission. ( f) Adherence to established COVID-19 protections at all times for donor, recipient, caretakers, and health care workers.
All statistical analysis were done with the International Business Machines Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Software version 25, and StataCorp STATA: statistical software of data science version 16. A two-tailed p-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. No computation was done for achieving the sample size reached. Missing data were handled by listwise deletion. Data was expressed as median with interquartile range ( IQR) or mean, and standard deviation ( SD) for continuous variables. For categorical variables, absolute value along with the percentage were used. Recipients were categorized into four groups according to their COVID-19 severity scale during their hospital stay: ≤3, not requiring supplemental oxygen; scale: 4, requiring supplemental oxygen through low flow device; scale: 5, requiring HFNC/NRBM; scale: 6–7 NIV- MV. For comparison of baseline data, COVID-19 course, and outcomes ( laboratory, and quality of life), we used χ2 test or Fisher's exact test, analysis of variance ( ANOVA) test, or Kruskal Wallis test as appropriate depending on the type of data, and normality distribution. Kaplan Meier curves were generated along with lifetime table analysis [ numbers at risk ( censored) ] reporting for AR, and compared between oxygen status during COVID-19 severity, different pandemic waves ( The definition, and timeline of waves in India is described in previous studies26Kute V.B. Meshram H.S. Navadiya V.V. et al.Consequences of the first and second COVID-19 wave on kidney transplant recipients at a large Indian transplant centre.Nephrology. 2022; 27 ( Carlton): 195-207https: //doi.org/10.1111/nep.13961Google Scholar), COVID-19 history of donor, DSA, ABO incompatibility, and induction regimen used. Breslow test has been used for survival function instead of a classical log-rank ( Mantel cox), as the event of interest ( AR) was clustered at early time points. Transplant-related covariates ( donor age, recipient age, recipient sex, donor sex, HLA mismatches, dialysis vintage, DSA, ABO incompatibility and induction protocol ( thymoglobulin, anti-Human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin, IL-2 blocker, or no induction agent used) The selection of covariates was based on current evidence of risk factors for rejection. COVID-19 related factors like COVID-19 oxygen requirement, steroids use, and inflammatory markers were also included as covariates in the model to assess their association. For the assessment of survival times, the interval from transplantation to AR was selected as time to event and AR was chosen as failure event. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed with stcox command of STATA version 16. Method for handling tied failures in the regression model was efron. Proportional hazard assumption testing for the model fit was estimated by estat phtest command. Model fitness was assessed with log likelihood, chi square and p-values. Effects of competing risks ( with Death as a competing event) were assessed by stcreg command. The multivariable time to event analysis was expressed as hazard ratio ( HR) with accompanying 95% confidence interval ( CI), standard errors and z values.
The funder of this descriptive study had no role in study conceptualization, design, data collection, data handling, data analysis, data interpretation, or scientific writing of the report.
A total of 372 KT with COVID-19 history were performed between June 26, 2020 to December 1, 2021, including 365 ( 98·11%) living, and 7 ( 1·89%) deceased donor KT. Duration from COVID-19 to last follow-up was 373 ( 243–446) days. The study population for recipients was compiled of all grades of COVID-19 severity including scales of ≤ 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 in 272 ( 73·12%), 59 ( 15·86%), 29 ( 7·80%), 7 ( 1·88%), and 5 ( 1·34%) patients, respectively. The cohort was almost evenly distributed during the pandemic with 171 patients ( 45·96%) corresponding to the first wave, and 201 ( 54·04%) to the second wave. The number of negative RT-PCR tests done before surgery in the recipients included 2, 3, and 4 in 105 ( 28·22%), 117 ( 31·45%), and149 ( 40·05%) recipients respectively. ( Supplementary Table 4 and Supplementary Figure 1). The demographic and acute COVID-19 phase of the recipients, and donors are detailed comprehensively in Table 1, and Table 2, respectively. The median ( IQR) age of recipients was 39 ( 32–48) years, with 305 ( 81·98%) males, and 67 ( 18·02%) females. There was no statistical difference for age, or sex among different COVID-19 scales. Only 32 ( 8·60%) cases had obesity. The median ( IQR) dialysis vintage for the study population was 11 ( 6–14·7) months with no difference per COVID-19 severity ( p-value = 0·78). The mode of dialysis was predominantly hemodialysis through arteriovenous fistula followed by non-tunneled catheter, tunneled cuffed venous catheter, continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis, and pre-emptive transplants in 297 ( 79·84%), 28 ( 7·53%), 32 ( 8·60%),6 ( 1·61%), and 9 ( 2·42%) patients, respectively. Only 14 ( 3·76%) of the recipients were completely vaccinated for COVID-19 before transplant surgery. Covishield ( Oxford/AstraZeneca) was the predominant vaccine with 30 ( 81·08%) doses, and Covaxin ( Bharat Biotech BBV152) was applied in only seven ( 18·92%) of the 37 doses given including the first dose. We assessed pre-transplant COVID-19 antibodies in only 56 ( 15·05%) recipients due to resource limitations. The median ( IQR) antibody levels developed through different grades of severity [ 31 ( 10–325) vs 31 ( 10–325) vs 38 ( 31–48) vs 115 ( 58–172) AU/ml; p-value = 0·86 ] was comparable. The minimum waiting time from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity to transplant surgery varied according to the disease severity ( scale ≤3, 4, 5, and ≥ 6 was 17, 36, 42, and 37 days, respectively). The minimum waiting time from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR negative report to transplant surgery on scales of ≤3, 4, 5, and ≥ 6 was 7, 28, 32, and 30 days, respectively. Pre-transplant radiological abnormalities persisted in 20 ( 5·37%) of recipients. There were no statistically significant differences for the pre-transplant laboratory blood tests among different grades of severity of COVID-19 ( Supplementary Table 5). However, forty-three ( 11·55%) cases had high C-reactive protein ( CRP) at the time of transplant of which 24 ( 55·81%), 10 ( 23·26%), 9 ( 20·93%) cases belonged to scale of 3, 4 and 5, respectively.Table 1Demographic and acute COVID-19 course of recipient.Total ( n = 372) Ordinal scale: 3 ( n = 272) Ordinal scale: 4 ( n = 59) Ordinal scale: 5 ( n = 29) Ordinal scale: 6–7 ( n = 12) p-valueDemographicsAge, years39 ( 32–48) 39 ( 32–48) 38 ( 32–48) 38 ( 31–48) 46 ( 39·5–47) 0·27Male Sex305 ( 82·2) 229 ( 84·2) 44 ( 74·6) 24 ( 82·8) 8 ( 72·7) 0·28Height, cm166 ( 159–172) 166 ( 159–172) 166 ( 159–172) 166 ( 159–172) 168 ( 159–172) 0·13Weight, kg64 ( 54–74) 64 ( 54–74) 63 ( 54–73) 61·5 ( 54–72) 69·5 ( 57·7–77·2) 0·58Body mass index, kg/m223 ( 20–25) 23·4 ( 20·6–25·7) 23·2 ( 20·5–25·5) 23 ( 20·4–25) 24·6–21·1–26·2) 0·42Obesity32 ( 8·6) 21 ( 7·7) 7 ( 11·9) 3 ( 10·3) 1 ( 8·3) 0·75ABO Blood group typing, n = 369A95 ( 25·5) 64 ( 23·5) 16 ( 27·1) 12 ( 41·4) 3 ( 25) 0·21B101 ( 27·2) 74 ( 27·2) 15 ( 25·4) 8 ( 27·6) 4 ( 33·3) 0·95AB35 ( 9·4) 25 ( 9·2) 8 ( 13·6) 2 ( 6·9) 0 ( 0) 0·44O138 ( 37·1) 108 ( 39·7) 18 ( 30·5) 7 ( 24·1) 5 ( 41·7) 0·25Native kidney diseaseRe-transplant10 ( 3·2) 6 ( 2·7) 3 ( 5·3) 1 ( 4·2) 0 ( 0) 0·73Hypertensive nephropathy116 ( 31·2) 86 ( 31·6) 19 ( 32·2) 10 ( 34·5) 1 ( 8·3) 0·37Diabetic kidney disease74 ( 19·9) 53 ( 19·5) 12 ( 20·3) 3 ( 10·3) 6 ( 50) 0·036Obstructive uropathy16 ( 4·3) 14 ( 5·1) 0 ( 0) 1 ( 3·4) 1 ( 8·3) 0·303Cystic kidney disease16 ( 4·3) 13 ( 4·8) 0 ( 0) 3 ( 10·3) 0 ( 0) 0·11IgA nephropathy29 ( 7·8) 23 ( 8·5) 5 ( 8·5) 1 ( 3·4) 0 ( 0) 0·57Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis14 ( 3·8) 11 ( 4) 2 ( 3·4) 1 ( 3·4) 0 ( 0) 0·906Lupus nephritis6 ( 1·6) 5 ( 1·8) 0 ( 0) 1 ( 3·4) 0 ( 0) 0·603Chronic glomerulonephritis83 ( 22·3) 62 ( 22·8) 13 ( 22) 6 ( 20·7) 2 ( 16·7) 0·95Unknown17 ( 19·1) 47 ( 17·3) 15 ( 25·4) 6 ( 20·7) 3 ( 25) 0·48Chronic interstitial nephritis12 ( 3·2) 8 ( 2·9) 1 ( 1·7) 3 ( 10·3) 0 ( 0) 0·13Alport syndrome5 ( 1·3) 4 ( 1·5) 1 ( 1·7) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 0·88Co-morbid conditionsHypertension337 ( 90·6) 247 ( 90·8) 55 ( 93·2) 25 ( 86·2) 10 ( 83·3) 0·59Diabetes98 ( 26·3) 70 ( 25·7) 17 ( 28·8) 5 ( 17·2) 6 ( 50) 0·17Past Myocardial infarction35 ( 9·4) 24 ( 8·8) 5 ( 8·5) 2 ( 6·9) 4 ( 33·3) 0·037Hypothyroid57 ( 15·3) 40 ( 14·7) 11 ( 1·6) 3 ( 10·3) 3 ( 25) 0·57Chronic liver disease6 ( 1·6) 4 ( 1·5) 1 ( 1·7) 0 ( 0) 1 ( 8·3) 0·26Peripheral vascular disease5 ( 1·3) 4 ( 1·5) 0 ( 0) 1 ( 3·4) 0 ( 0) 0·57Peptic ulcer disease8 ( 2·2) 4 ( 1·5) 0 ( 0) 4 ( 13·8) 0 ( 0) < 0·0001Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease13 ( 3·5) 6 ( 2·2) 5 ( 8·5) 1 ( 3·4) 1 ( 8·3) 0·089Cerebrovascular accident17 ( 4·6) 11 ( 4) 4 ( 6·8) 1 ( 3·4) 1 ( 8·3) 0·72Malignancy3 ( 0·8) 3 ( 1·1) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 0·77Leukaemia3 ( 0·8) 2 ( 0·7) 1 ( 1·7) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 0·81Viral marker statusHepatitis C virus24 ( 6·5) 18 ( 6·6) 1 ( 1·7) 5 ( 17·2) 0 ( 0) 0·034Hepatitis B virus8 ( 2·2) 6 ( 2·2) 2 ( 3·4) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 0·72Human immunodeficiency virus3 ( 0·8) 2 ( 0·7) 0 ( 0) 0 ( 0) 1 ( 8·3) 0·026Cytomegalovirus serology ( n = 361) Donor -/ recipient +20 ( 5·5) 17 ( 6·4) 1 ( 1·8) 1 ( 3·6) 1 ( 10) 0·48Donor +/ recipient -12 ( 3·3) 7 ( 2·6) 2 ( 3·6) 2 ( 7·1) 1 ( 10) 0·38Donor +/ recipient +171 ( 47·4) 122 ( 45·7) 34 ( 60·7) 13 ( 46·4) 2 ( 20) 0·056Donor -/ recipient -79 ( 21·9) 54 ( 20·2) 16 ( 28·6) 8 ( 28·6) 1 ( 10) 0·32ABO incompatible38 ( 10·2) 29 ( 10·7) 7 ( 11·9) 1 ( 3·4) 1 ( 8·3) 0·63COVID-19 symptomsFever260 ( 70) 173 ( 63·8) 54 ( 91·5) 25 ( 86·2) 8 ( 66·7) < 0·0001Cough202 ( 54·3) 117 ( 43) 54 ( 91·5) 23 ( 79·3) 8 ( 66·7) < 0·0001Dyspnea95 ( 25·5) 26 ( 9·6) 32 ( 54·2) 26 ( 89·7) 11 ( 91·7) < 0·0001Anosmia/ageusia140 ( 37·6) 97 ( 35·7) 26 ( 44·1) 13 ( 44·8) 4 ( 33·3) 0·52Diarrhea49 ( 13·2) 36 ( 13·2) 2 ( 3·4) 8 ( 27·6) 3 ( 25) 0·0082Radiological abnormalities detected ( n = 361) 185 ( 51·2) 104 ( 39·2) 46 ( 80·7) 23 ( 85·2) 12 ( 100) < 0·0001Anti-COVID-19 regimenRemdesivir102 ( 27·5) 43 ( 15·9) 34 ( 57·6) 17 ( 58·6) 8 ( 66·7) < 0·0001Anticoagulation153 ( 41·5) 76 ( 28·3) 43 ( 72·9) 24 ( 82·8) 19 ( 83·3) < 0·0001Steroid153 ( 41·2) 70 ( 25·8) 48 ( 81·4) 25 ( 86·2) 10 ( 83·3) < 0·0001Peak laboratory abnormalities, ( n) Hemoglobin, g/dl ( n = 344) 9·050 ( 8–10) 9 ( 8–10) 9 ( 8–10) 9 ( 8–10) 9·1 ( 7·45–9·9) 0·013Total leukocyte count x 103 cells ( n = 328) 4·8 ( 3·84–6·37) 4·8 ( 3·8–6·3) 4·8 ( 3·9–6·35) 4·8 ( 3·9–6·4) 4·3 ( 3·7–6) 0·45Neutrophil,% ( n = 342) 72 ( 67–79) 72 ( 67–79) 72 ( 67–79) 72 ( 67–80) 76 ( 70–81) 0·14Lymphocyte,% ( n = 341) 22 ( 15–27) 22 ( 15–27) 22 ( 15–27) 22 ( 13–26) 20 ( 19·5–22) 0·051Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio ( n = 341) 3·3 ( 2·5–5·3) 3·3 ( 2·5–5·3) 3·3 ( 2·5–5·3) 3·3 ( 2·5–5·8) 3·5 ( 3·3–4·15) 0·0099C-reactive protein, g/L ( n = 244) 22·7 ( 8–54) 22·7 ( 8–54) 27·3 ( 9–55·2) 33 ( 12–61) 46 ( 33–67·5) < 0·0001D-dimer, micromol/L ( n = 188) 583 ( 357–1220) 583 ( 357–1220) 566 ( 357–1220) 567 ( 359–1226) 1200 ( 668–1545) 0·029Interleukin-6, pg/ml ( n = 51) 36·6 ( 12·9–60) 36·7 ( 13–1100) 36·6 ( 13–58) 36·6 ( 13–58) 8 ( 8–8) 0·62Ferritin, ng/ml ( n = 131) 687 ( 368–1101) 326 ( 239–439) 687 ( 372–1100) 687 ( 372–1100) 794 ( 645–890) 0·015Lactate dehydrogenase, IU/L ( n = 120) 326 ( 237–439) 326 ( 239–439) 326 ( 239–439) 326 ( 239–439) 441 ( 377–561) 0·12SARS-CoV-2 vaccine statusOne dose23 ( 6·2) 16 ( 5·9) 3 ( 5·1) 3 ( 10·3) 1 ( 8·3) 0·77Two doses14 ( 3·8) 10 ( 3·7) 2 ( 3·4) 1 ( 3·4) 1 ( 8·3) 0·86Abbreviations: Data expressed as numbers, percentages, median, and interquartile range· p-value was calculated using Chi square test, Kruskal Wallis test or Analysis of variance test as appropriate· Obesity was defined as Body mass index > 30 kg/m2 *, Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation·. Open table in a new tab Table 2Baseline features of the donors.Total ( n = 372) Ordinal scale: 3 ( n = 272) Ordinal scale: 4 ( n = 59) Ordinal scale: 5 ( n = 29) Ordinal scale: 6–7 ( n = 12) p-valueAge, years48 ( 40–55) 49 ( 40–55) 48 ( 42–55) 45 ( 38–52) 47.5 ( 37–52.5) 0·47Female sex, n (%) 240 ( 64·5) 179 ( 65·8) 41 ( 69·5) 16 ( 55·2) 4 ( 33·3) 0·0706Height, cm158·6 ( 157·5–159·7) 158·7 ( 157·4–160) 158·5 ( 155·5–161·5) 158·3 ( 154·1–162·5) 158·9 ( 152·6–165·2) 0·99Weight, kg59·3 ( 58·3–60·3) 58·4 ( 57·3–59·5) 61·9 ( 59·4–64·3) 60·3 ( 57·2–63·4) 64·8 ( 57·3–72·2) 0·013Pre-donation SBP, mmHg122·2 ( 117·4–127·1) 123·1 ( 116·6–129·7) 117·6 ( 112·5–122·7) 121·5 ( 119·3–123·6) 127·2 ( 121·4–132·9) 0·85Pre-donation S· creatinine, mg/dl0·8 ( 0·8–0·8) 0·8 ( 0·8–0·8) 0·8 ( 0·8–0·8) 0·8 ( 0·7–0·8) 0·8 ( 0·7–0·9) 0·42DTPA GFR ( Left kidney), ml/min/1·72/m266·6 ( 64·2–69) 67·5 ( 64·7–70·3) 62·1 ( 56·3–67·9) 66·2 ( 56·6–75·7) 70·5 ( 53·7–87·4) 0·409DTPAGFR ( Right kidney), ml/min/1·72/m268·2 ( 65·7–70·7) 68·8 ( 65·9–71·7) 63·9 ( 57·8–69·9) 69·2 ( 59·5–78·9) 72·1 ( 54·3–89·9) 0·501HLA mismatches ( n = 325) A1·16 ( 0·5) 1·16 ( 0·5) 1·18 ( 0·5) 1·14 ( 0·6) 1·09 ( 0·3) 0·95B1·14 ( 0·5) 1·15 ( 0·5) 1·16 ( 0·5) 1·07 ( 0·6) 1 ( 0) 0·66DR1·15 ( 0·5) 1·1 ( 0·5) 1·34 ( 0·6) 1·25 ( 0·6) 0·9 ( 0·3) 0·016Past COVID-19 status, n (%) 64 ( 17·2) 49 ( 18) 11 ( 18·6) 3 ( 10·3) 1 ( 8·3) 0·608Abbreviations: Data reported as numbers ( percentages) or median ( IQR) or mean ( SD). IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation; SBP: systolic blood pressure; DTPA: Diethylene Triamine Pentaacetic Acid; GFR: glomerular filtration rate; BMI: body mass index; HLA: human leukocyte antigen; SD: standard deviation. Only 2 cases had low flow oxygen requirement among the donors with COVID-19 Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation. Open table in a new tab
Abbreviations: Data expressed as numbers, percentages, median, and interquartile range· p-value was calculated using Chi square test, Kruskal Wallis test or Analysis of variance test as appropriate· Obesity was defined as Body mass index > 30 kg/m2 *, Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation·.
Abbreviations: Data reported as numbers ( percentages) or median ( IQR) or mean ( SD). IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation; SBP: systolic blood pressure; DTPA: Diethylene Triamine Pentaacetic Acid; GFR: glomerular filtration rate; BMI: body mass index; HLA: human leukocyte antigen; SD: standard deviation. Only 2 cases had low flow oxygen requirement among the donors with COVID-19 Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation.
In our report, the median ( IQR) age of donors was 48 ( 40–55) years with 240 ( 64·5%) donations originating from females. The pre-donation serum creatinine was 0·8 ( 0·8–0·8) mg/dl. The mean ( SD) HLA mismatches for the study were 1·16 ( 0·5), 1·14 ( 0·5), and 1·15 ( 0·5) for HLA A, B, and DR loci, respectively. Sixty-four ( 17·20%) cases had both donor, and recipient with a history of COVID-19. The COVID-19 severity for donors had a scale of 3, and 4 in 62 ( 96·87%), and 2 ( 3·13%) cases, respectively.
QOL ( Table 3) was measured in recipients, with prominent findings reported in the anxiety domain ( 21·3%). Collectively, for all the domains of EQ-5D-5 L, only five recipients had a scale of 3 ( moderate) while the rest all had a scale of 2 ( sight difficulties). There was no difference in quality of life as per scales. The quality of life of the donor was also satisfactory as shown in Supplementary Table 6. No other neurological, pulmonary, and cognitive impairment was noted in recipients and donors with a COVID-19 history. Few recipients had post-transplant complications in the form of 17 ( 4·56%) urinary tract infections [ 10 ( 58·82%) Escherichia coli, and 7 ( 41·18%) Klebsiella ], four ( 1·07%) post-transplant diabetes mellitus, one ( 0·26%) polycythaemia, two ( 0·53%) acute pancreatitis, one ( 0·26%) urinary leak, one ( 0·26%) capsular tear, one ( 0·26%) catheter-related blood stream infection, one ( 0·26%) Klebsiella pneumonia immediate post-transplant, one ( 0·26%) dengue, and one ( 0·26%) parvo-virus infections. Two ( 0·53%) patients developed pyelonephritis with one ( 0·26%) patient death. There was no complication related to COVID-19 in recipients and donors except for two ( 0·53%) cases. One ( 0·26%) case each with a COVID-19 oxygen scale of 2, and 4 developed a second COVID-19 infection by day 10 and 3-months, respectively without molecular diagnostics, and typing confirmation for re-infection/reactivation due to resource limitations. Both patients recovered successfully. Four ( 1·07%) deaths unrelated to COVID-19 were reported, and their detailed analysis is outlined as Supplementary Table 7. AR episode were detected in 34 ( 9·13%) cases with a median ( IQR) time between transplant and acute rejection of 7·5 ( 5–12) days after transplantation. The time distribution of the AR episodes was as follows: Twenty-three ( 67·65%) AR events before 10 days, seven ( 20·59%) between 10 and 20 days, and four ( 11·76%) AR events reported beyond 20 days.Table 3Outcomes and follow-up course of recipients after transplantation.Total ( n = 372) Ordinal scale: 3 ( n = 272) Ordinal scale: 4 ( n = 59) Ordinal scale: 5 ( n = 29) Ordinal scale: 6–7 ( n = 12) p-valueDays from initial negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR to surgery88 ( 40–145) 88 ( 40–137) 65 ( 42–120) 110 ( 49–190) 127 ( 64–161) 0·18Days from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive to surgery100 ( 54–159) 100 ( 51–155) 94 ( 54–130) 144 ( 59–197) 141 ( 97–177) 0·46Induction regimenIL-2 blocker55 ( 14·8) 38 ( 14) 10 ( 16·9) 3 ( 10·3) 4 ( 33·3) 0·25Thymoglobulin218 ( 58·6) 160 ( 58·8) 38 ( 64·4) 17 ( 58·6) 3 ( 25) 0·093No induction78 ( 21) 66 ( 24·3) 4 ( 6·8) 4 ( 13·8) 4 ( 33·3) 0·012Anti-Human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin21 ( 5·6) 8 ( 2·9) 7 ( 11·9) 5 ( 17·2) 1 ( 8·3) 0·0013EQ-5D-5 L questionnaire, n = 248Mobility: problems during walking around24 ( 6·9) 11 ( 4·3) 7 ( 12·5) 4 ( 16) 2 ( 18·2) 0·013Personal care: problems with washing or dishing8 ( 2·3) 5 ( 2) 0 ( 0) 3 ( 8) 1 ( 9·1) 0·062Usual activity: problems in usual activity12 ( 3·4) 4 ( 1·6) 5 ( 8·9) 2 ( 8) 1 ( 9·1) 0·015Pain/discomfort9 ( 2·6) 3 ( 1·2) 3 ( 5·4) 3 ( 12) 0 ( 0) 0·0078Anxiety/depression74 ( 21·3) 51 ( 19·9) 15 ( 26·8) 7 ( 28) 1 ( 9·1) 0·44EQ-VAS before transplant60·6 ( 11·2) 60·8 ( 11·3) 60·1 ( 9·8) 61·3 ( 14·2) 54·6 ( 5·3) EQ-VAS after transplant84·4 ( 20) 84·6 ( 19·9) 83 ( 23) 83·3 ( 18·7) 87·5 ( 5·9) < 0.0001Serum creatinine, mg/dlPost-operative days to nadir creatinine4 ( 3–6) 4 ( 3–6) 5 ( 4–5) 4 ( 3–6) 4 ( 3–5·25) 0·65Nadir creatinine ( n = 307) 0·98 ( 0·8–1·2) 1 ( 0·8–1·2) 1 ( 0·8–1·2) 1 ( 0·8–1·23) 0·9 ( 0·8–1·13) 0·76Discharge, ( n = 306) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·307) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·3) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·3) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·35) 1 ( 0·87–1·2) 0·961-m, ( n = 251) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·2) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·2) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·2) 1·1 ( 0·9–1·3) 1·1 ( 1·05–1·13) 0·833-m, ( n = 196) 1·1 ( 1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1–1·5) 1·1 ( 1·1–1·12) 0·636-m, ( n = 155) 1·1 ( 1·1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1·1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1–1·3) 1·27 ( 1·1–1·5) 1·1 ( 1·1–1·2) 0·064≥ 1 yr, ( n = 66) 1·1 ( 1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1–1·2) 1·1 ( 1·1–1·2) 1·15 ( 1·12–1·17) 1·5 ( 1·45–1·55) 0·24Total leucocyte count, x 103 cells mm3Discharge, ( n = 307) 7·8 ( 6·1–9·5) 7·7 ( 6–9·4) 7·6 ( 6·7–8·9) 8 ( 6·8–9·8) 7·3 ( 5·4–9) 0·771-m, ( n = 298) 6·8 ( 5·6–8·8) 6·8 ( 5·6–8·8) 7·8 ( 5·3–8·7) 6·8 ( 6–8·7) 5·6 ( 5–7·7) 0·283-m, ( n = 257) 7 ( 5·6–8·9) 7·2 ( 5·7–9) 6·9 ( 5·7–7·9) 5·7 ( 5·25–8·85) 7 ( 3·95–9·4) 0·476-m, ( n = 84) 6·8 ( 5·6–8) 7·1 ( 5·9–8·8) 6 ( 5·6–7) 6·75 ( 6·37–7·8) 4·4 ( 3·25–4·6) 0·28≥ 1 yr, ( n = 38) 6·85 ( 5·925–7·5) 7 ( 6–7·8) 6·8 ( 6·2–6·9) 8·1 ( 8·1–8·1) 3·4 ( 2·8–4) 0·15Lymphocyte,% Discharge, ( n = 282) 25 ( 20–29) 25 ( 20–29) 23 ( 18·5–27·7) 24 ( 19–28) 28 ( 18·5–31·2) 0·491-m, ( n = 134) 21·5 ( 16–25) 22 ( 16–25) 20 ( 13·4–25·5) 22 ( 21–23·5) 21 ( 16·5–23) 0·283-m, ( n = 232) 18 ( 15–22) 18 ( 15–21·2) 19 ( 16–21·5) 19 ( 15·5–34·3) 17 ( 15–20) 0·536-m, ( n = 11) 23·5 ( 21–28) 25 ( 22–28) 21 ( 19–24) 23 ( 23–25·8) 16 ( 16–16) 0·621 yr, ( n = 11) 22 ( 20–24·6) 20 ( 20–24·6) 24 ( 24–24) 22 ( 22–22) N/A0·308Tacrolimus levels, ng/ml in follow-up1-m, ( n = 206) 10·7 ( 9–11·9) 10·9 ( 9–11·9) 10·2 ( 8·8–11·9) 11·3 ( 10–13) 9·7 ( 8·6–10·4) 0·0853-m, ( n = 272) 8·7 ( 7·825–9·5) 8·8 ( 7·8–9·5) 8·6 ( 7·8–9·5) 9·3 ( 8·2–9·5) 9·3 ( 8·15–9·35) 0·0986-m, ( n = 137) 7·8 ( 7–8·4) 7·8 ( 7·2–8·4) 7·9 ( 6·9–8·3) 7·2 ( 6·3–7·8) 6·9 ( 5·8–8·23) 0·43≥ 1 yr, ( n = 31) 6·2 ( 6–7·3) 6·9 ( 6–7·6) 6·8 ( 6·2–7·2) 5 ( 4·7–5·5) 5·6 ( 5·4–5·8) 0·11Abbreviations: Data reported as numbers ( percentages) or median ( IQR) or mean ( SD). IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation; m: months; yr: years; RT-PCR: real time polymerase test detected by nasopharyngeal sample; IL-2: interleukin 2; Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation; EQ-5D-5 L = EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire which consists of five domains, each of which has points ranging from 1 ( No difficulty) to 5 ( extreme difficulty) · All values reported of EQ-5D-5 L had score of 2; EQ-VAS: EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale, ranging from 0 ( worst imaginable health) to 100 ( best of health) · p-value for EQVAS values before and after transplant was calculated. Open table in a new tab
Abbreviations: Data reported as numbers ( percentages) or median ( IQR) or mean ( SD). IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation; m: months; yr: years; RT-PCR: real time polymerase test detected by nasopharyngeal sample; IL-2: interleukin 2; Ordinal scale for COVID-19 severity in recipient is ≤3 = no oxygen needed; 4 = oxygen through low-flow oxygen device; 5 = high-flow nasal cannula for oxygen therapy; 6 = non-invasive ventilation and 7 = mechanical ventilation; EQ-5D-5 L = EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire which consists of five domains, each of which has points ranging from 1 ( No difficulty) to 5 ( extreme difficulty) · All values reported of EQ-5D-5 L had score of 2; EQ-VAS: EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale, ranging from 0 ( worst imaginable health) to 100 ( best of health) · p-value for EQVAS values before and after transplant was calculated.
Kaplan Meier estimates assessing AR association COVID-19 related factors showed a lower risk of acute rejections in patients that never required oxygen ( Figure 1A) during the COVID-19 infection ( Breslow test; p-value = 0·019) compared to patients who required oxygen. Estimated censored largest mean survival time for rejection free episode was higher for cases that never required oxygen compared to cases with oxygen [ 480 ( 464–495) vs 404 ( 371–437) days ]. Different pandemic waves of COVID-19 ( Figure 1B) and co-existing history of COVID-19 in donor ( Figure 1C) showed no predictive value with AR in the study. In Kaplan Meier analysis, thymoglobulin ( Breslow test; p-value = 0·0030) as induction ( Figure 2A) was associated with fewer AR episodes compared to others, while no induction ( Breslow test; p-value = 0·011) had a higher risk of AR ( Figure 2B). Estimated censored largest mean survival time for rejection free episode was higher for thymoglobulin compared to others [ 486 ( 470–501) vs 438 ( 411–465) days ], and contrarily lower for cases with no induction [ 352 ( 319–384) vs 478 ( 462–493) ]. Cox hazard proportional analysis ( Table 4) showed that no oxygen requirement during COVID-19 [ HR = 0·14 ( 0·03–0·59); p-value = 0·0071 ] and thymoglobulin use had lower risk for AR [ HR = 0·17 ( 0·03–0·95); p-value = 0·044 ]. Degree of HLA DR mismatch had the highest risk of AR [ HR = 10·2 ( 1·74- 65·83; p-value = 0·011 ]. In competing risk analysis ( Supplementary Table 2) which included death as competing event, HLA DR mismatch and absence of oxygen requirement compared to oxygen requirement during COVID-19 confirmed our Cox hazard proportional analysis. Demographic parameters ( age, gender), inflammatory markers ( D-dimer, highly sensitive C reactive protein, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio), sensitization and ABO-incompatibility, dialysis vintage, obesity, and steroid use were not associated with rates of AR. There was no donor-derived SARS-CoV-2 infection in our cohort.Figure 1Kaplan Meier analysis for the association of acute rejections with COVID-19 related factors ( 1A: oxygen status during COVID-19 illness; 1B: Comparison of two pandemic waves, 1C: Both donor-recipient ( D-R) had COVID-19 history before transplant).View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download ( PPT) Figure 2Kaplan Meier analysis for the association of acute rejections with transplant related factors ( 2A: Comparison of thymoglobulin vs other induction strategy, 2B: No induction vs other strategy; 2C: Donor specific antibody ( DSA) existence; 2D: ABO incompatible transplant or not).View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download ( PPT) Table 4Cox proportional hazard model for acute rejection.Co-variatesHRSEzp-value95% CILLULChronology from COVID-19 infection to surgeryTime from RT-PCR positive to surgery0.980.03−0.530.590.901.05Time from RT-PCR negative to surgery1.020.040.60.540.941.10Treatment received for COVID-19No oxygen supplementation0.140.10−2.690.00710.030.59Steroid use0.680.73−0.360.720.085.59Inflammatory and laboratory markersHS-CRP1.000.001.710.0870.991.01D-dimer1.000.00−0.760.440.991.00NLR1.080.051.440.140.971.20COVID-19 related general factorsPandemic waves ( First wave versus second wave) 0.920.67−0.110.910.223.86Both donor-recipient had COVID-19 history2.021.510.940.340.468.76Biological and baseline factorsDonor's age1.070.041.840.0660.991.15Donor's sex0.640.59−0.480.630.103.87Pre-donation serum creatinine0.250.60−0.580.560.0026.29Recipient's age0.980.02−0.690.490.921.03Recipient's sex4.313.901.620.1060.7325.40Recipient's obesity1.941.940.670.5030.2713.75Dialysis vintage1.010.002.510.0121.001.02Immunological factorsHLA A mismatch0.260.24−1.470.140.041.55HLA B mismatch0.100.09−2.390.0170.010.66HLA DR mismatch10.729.922.560.0111.7465.83DSA6.239.011.270.2050.36105.94ABOiTx0.650.56−0.490.620.123.59Thymoglobulin vs others * 0.170.15−2.010.0440.030.95No induction vs induction agents0.680.58−0.450.650.123.68Abbreviations: HR = hazard ratio; UL= upper limit; LL= lower limit; SE: standard error; RT-PCR: real time polymerase test detected by nasopharyngeal sample; HS-CRP = highly sensitive C reactive protein; HLA = human leukocyte antigen; NLR= neutrophil lymphocyte ratio; ABOiTx = ABO incompatible kidney transplantation; DSA = donor specific antibody;. * = induction with anti-human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin, Interleukin-2 blocker and no induction. Model fitness statistics ( log likelihood = −69.702; LR chi = 44.1; global test's p-value = 0.036). Open table in a new tab
Abbreviations: HR = hazard ratio; UL= upper limit; LL= lower limit; SE: standard error; RT-PCR: real time polymerase test detected by nasopharyngeal sample; HS-CRP = highly sensitive C reactive protein; HLA = human leukocyte antigen; NLR= neutrophil lymphocyte ratio; ABOiTx = ABO incompatible kidney transplantation; DSA = donor specific antibody;.
* = induction with anti-human T-lymphocyte immunoglobulin, Interleukin-2 blocker and no induction. Model fitness statistics ( log likelihood = −69.702; LR chi = 44.1; global test's p-value = 0.036).
Twelve ( 3.22%) KT ( Supplementary Table 3) were performed in sensitized cases, and their outcomes were comparable to those of our non-sensitized groups ( Figure 2C). Thirty-eight ( 10.21%) cases were ABO-incompatible KT and they had similar outcomes compared to non-ABO-incompatible KT ( Figure 2D, and Supplementary Figure 2). A total of 64 ( 17·20%) KT were performed in which both donor, and recipient had a previous history of COVID-19 with no deaths or graft loss. The AR rates 8 ( 12·50%) were similar to cases in which only recipients had a COVID-19 history ( Figure 1C, and Supplementary Figure 3). There was no proteinuria, haematuria, any other renal or extra-renal abnormality on follow-up in living donors who donated kidney after recovery of COVID-19 at median ( IQR) follow up duration 227 ( 109–309) days, suggesting safety of donation without any postulated sequelae. As per the safety analysis, the data did not result in any safety signal or potential safety issue.
We report this multicentre cohort study from India of 372 KT in recipients recovered after COVID- 19 with favourable outcomes. These data collected during the first and second COVID-19 wave may help to increase the number of KT that can be performed in India. To the best of knowledge, this is the largest cohort study of KT of 372 COVID-19 recovered recipients and 64 donors with the longest follow-up duration assessing management strategy and outcomes. The incidence of AR was 34 ( 9·13%) in which biopsy-proven rejection was 23 ( 6·18%) which is comparable to previous reports and comparable to standard transplantation outcomes before the COVID-19 pandemic.27Kute V.B. Shah P.R. Vanikar A.V. et al.Long-term outcomes of renal transplants from spousal and living-related and other living-unrelated donors: a single center experience.J Assoc Physicians India. 2012; 60: 24-27Google Scholar,28Jha P.K. Yadav D.K. Siddini V. et al.A retrospective multi-center experience of renal transplants from India during COVID-19 pandemic.Clin Transplant. 2021 Oct; 35 ( Epub 2021 Jul 19. PMID: 34255903; PMCID: PMC8420412): e14423https: //doi.org/10.1111/ctr.14423Google Scholar AR episodes tend to be more frequent in cases with higher severity. Furthermore, rejection episodes were less in cases with induction agents.
Patients with severe clinical COVID-19 symptoms requiring oxygen or those with a less potent induction treatment had more frequent AR in our report. This observation can be explained by the fact that, the patients with increasing COVID-19 severity, who are well known to have greater co-morbidities, had a trend for lower induction strategy. Based on our findings, we hypothesize that COVID-19 disease severity or recovery time may not serve as a criterion for reducing immunosuppression. Hence, we support no tailoring of induction agent even in cases who had history of oxygen requirement. Our report supports of an unmodified maintenance immunosuppressive regimen in relation to COVID-19. With only two COVID-19 infections in the post-transplant period, our report also suggests on the safety of current immunosuppression regimen.
We have also performed various high-risk transplantation including sensitized and ABO-incompatible patients with favourable outcomes in the absence of modified immunosuppressants. The four deaths reported during the study were non-COVID-19 related. Although various professional societies have suggested waiting for an extended period before surgery in severe COVID-19, we have found that a minimum waiting time of around 1 month would be safe for all grades of previous COVID-19 infections.
We included 20 ( 5·37%) transplants with pre-surgery residual abnormalities, again with favourable outcomes in the absence of AR. Our report thus supports the rationale that the presence of residual radiological abnormalities without active infections before transplant should not be an absolute contraindication for transplantation, rather than individualizing the assessment. There were extremely few surgical complications in the study which is encouraging in comparison to previously reported eventful post-operative period in COVID-19 recovered patients.29Knisely A. Zhou Z.N. Wu J. et al.Perioperative morbidity and mortality of patients with COVID-19 who undergo urgent and emergent surgical procedures.Ann Surg. 2021; 273: 34-40Google Scholar Of additional relevance, we have not detected any venous or arterial thrombo-embolic phenomena in the absence of anti-thrombotic prophylaxis. In our study, a repeat DSA done after COVID-19 infection was not positive. With the retrospective nature of this study during the pandemic, it was not possible to recover data from patients lost to follow-up. Of note, we did not observe cross-match positivity ( by cytotoxic or flow crossmatch) in any of the donor-recipient pairs after COVID-19 infection. This observation suggests that sensitization subsequent to COVID-19 infection is a rare event.30Roll G.R. Lunow-Luke T. Braun H.J. et al.COVID-19 does not impact HLA antibody profile in a series of waitlisted renal transplant candidates.Hum Immunol. 2021; 82: 568-573Google Scholar Moreover, transplants have not been denied in any recipient recovering from COVID-19 due to medical unsuitability.
The strength of this study is based on an extensive and detailed follow up, large number of 100 ( 27%) moderate-severe cases, feasibility and safety of transplants in 20 ( 5·37%) recipients with residual radiological abnormality in chest without active infection before transplant surgery, 38 ( 10·21%) ABO-incompatible KT, 12 ( 3·22%) sensitised patients, and 64 ( 17·20%) donor/recipient pairs who recovered from COVID-19. We tested and demonstrated that the outcomes in the above-mentioned high-risk transplantation are also safe while yielding favourable graft outcomes. The donor-recipient pairs involved in the study remained at close and dedicated follow-up through in-person/telecommunication for any possible problems. One-year outcomes in transplant recipients and donors in COVID-19 survivors are without any long-term sequelae of COVID-19, and this further adds value to the study contrasting with previous reports.31Huang L. Yao Q. Gu X. et al.1-year outcomes in hospital survivors with COVID-19: a longitudinal cohort study.Lancet. 2021; 398: 747-758Google Scholar,32Adeloye D. Elneima O. Daines L. et al.The long-term sequelae of COVID-19: an international consensus on research priorities for patients with pre-existing and new-onset airways disease.Lancet Respir Med. 2021; 9: 1467-1478Google Scholar The younger cohort of the study population may partly be responsible for the uneventful post-COVID-19 course. The available follow-up suggests that transplantation and immunosuppression appear to be safe even in severe cases of COVID-19 survivors. Our data also show favourable outcome of KT in the first, and second wave despite reliable less pre-transplant vaccinations. We emphasized with all our patients on the importance of COVID-19 protections.
The retrospective design is a limitation of our study. Our patient cohort has been young which is common in India.27Kute V.B. Shah P.R. Vanikar A.V. et al.Long-term outcomes of renal transplants from spousal and living-related and other living-unrelated donors: a single center experience.J Assoc Physicians India. 2012; 60: 24-27Google Scholar,28Jha P.K. Yadav D.K. Siddini V. et al.A retrospective multi-center experience of renal transplants from India during COVID-19 pandemic.Clin Transplant. 2021 Oct; 35 ( Epub 2021 Jul 19. PMID: 34255903; PMCID: PMC8420412): e14423https: //doi.org/10.1111/ctr.14423Google Scholar We want to emphasize that there has not been any selection bias for the inclusion of patients. Nevertheless, our patient population may limit the generalizability of our data for older recipients. Our study population also includes predominantly live donor kidney transplants. In our approach, we kept the waiting time from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR negativity to surgery to a minimum as some patients wanted to move forward based on financial challenges, which is commoner in public sector. Moreover, some patients could have been COVID-19 negative, but due to legislation issues ( regional differences in legal policy of documentation and verification), the transplant would have been delayed. Of additional relevance have been varying COVID-19 transmission rate at various time lines and various regions in addition to varying thresholds for restarting transplantation during the pandemic. Additionally, immunosuppression including maintenance and treatment for COVID-19 have been based on center policies. Some variables remain unexamined regarding safety such as neutralizing antibody testing in the majority of cases and protocol biopsy of patients, and donors with prior COVID-19. Also, only a few pediatric cases in the cohort. The exact waiting time from recovery to transplant for different scales of COVID-19 severity can not be computed, as it depends on logistics, financial boundaries of patients, transplant center capacity, COVID-19 transmission rate, and legal issues during transplantation.
In conclusion, we report on our experience in 372 kidney transplants with a past medical history of COVID-19 ( 365 living and seven deceased donor transplants) across 23 transplant centres in India ( Three public, and 20 private hospitals). Transplantation and established immunosuppression appear independent of past COVID-19 severity. Insights from our study may help transplants professionals in developing an early regional plan for transplanting patients with a past medical history of COVID-19.
All participating authors have full access to all the data in the study and consented to the final responsibility regarding the content of the manuscript before the submission. All authors contributed equally to the conception, design of the work, acquisition, data analysis, interpretation of data, drafting the work, revising it critically for important intellectual content, final approval of the version to be published, and have agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work. VBK, DSR, FA & HSM have verified the underlying data before submission. VBK, and HSM decided for submission to the journal with input from all other authors.
The data collected for the study, including a data dictionary defining each field in the set, individual de-identified participant data, other specified data set, any additional, related documents will be available ( e.g., study protocol, statistical analysis plan, informed consent form) following the publication of this manuscript from the corresponding author on request
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Will Sanctions on Russia Work? The Ukraine Invasion Has Created a New Coalition. | About the author: Paula Stern is the President of the Stern Group, former chairwoman of the U.S. International Trade Commission, and author of Water’ s Edge: Domestic Politics and the Making of American Foreign Policy.
Will economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies work to roll back Russia’ s attack on Ukraine? Has the U.S. learned from its past experience imposing sanctions on Russia? It is still early days, but there is reason to believe this time may be different.
America has a long history of sanctioning Russia that is rooted in the domestic political fact that Americans all come from “ someplace else. ” They remain connected to overseas brethren, and urge Washington to intervene on their behalf.
Social media turbocharges these links. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has capitalized on these realities to pressure President Biden to intervene against Russia.
America’ s earliest economic face-offs with Russia were tame. In 1912, the U.S. applied economic leverage by withdrawing from the 1832 Russo-American bilateral Treaty of Commerce and Navigation. American abrogation of that treaty was a response to Tsarist Russia’ s mistreatment of naturalized Jewish Americans returning to Russia.
In the 1970s, a different immigration matter played a leading role in U.S.-Soviet diplomacy. Congress urged President Nixon to use economic weapons against Soviet emigration restrictions imposed mainly on Soviet Jews wishing to get to the West.
A bipartisan congressional coalition ultimately blocked President Nixon’ s detente policy with the USSR. Sen. Henry “ Scoop ” Jackson, a Cold Warrior with presidential ambitions, faced off with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Jackson rallied a broad coalition of the left and right that included religious and human rights proponents plus ethnic Americans with ties to so-called captive nations behind the “ Iron Curtain. ”
Jackson and his allies ultimately scuttled Nixon’ s pledge to the Soviet leaders to loosen post-World War II economic restrictions on the USSR. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment remained on U.S. law books from its enactment in 1974 until 2012 when it was replaced by the Magnitsky Act, another expression of U.S. distaste for Russian human rights policies.
The Nixon-era tug of war over Jewish emigration lasted two- and one-half years. In 2022, the policy shift has taken a few days.
Congress, on a bipartisan basis, is primed to eliminate Russia’ s most-favored nation status, despite bitter partisanship in every other area. Within days, the U.S. initiated financial and energy sanctions against an expanding list of Russian targets.
What probably surprised Russian President Vladimir Putin most, however, was the freeze on Russian Central Bank reserves. The Biden administration has continued rolling out export controls. The U.S. banned Russian energy imports. The UK will soon follow.
A total of 46 nations are now cooperating to squeeze Russia’ s elite. On March 2, the U.S. established Task Force KleptoCapture to go after “ dark money. ” Private Russians are estimated to hold as much as $ 920 billion in offshore wealth.
America’ s efforts over the years to alter Russian behavior have been met with mixed, and even disappointing, results. But now much has changed.
First, there is unity between the Biden administration and Congress, which was not the case in the Jackson-Vanik battle.
Second, the Biden administration was prepared probably because the U.S. had a trial run in 2014 when Russia grabbed Crimea and more modest sanctions were imposed. Biden’ s top advisers who had occupied related positions in the Obama Administration apparently gained valuable experience.
Third, there is unprecedented diplomatic cooperation with leading economies in Europe and Asia. Authorities acted at lightning speed, taking by surprise Putin who thought he had amassed a foreign currency reserve that would insulate him from economic sanctions. This contrasted with 2014, when U.S. allies were tepid in response to Russian military operations in Crimea and the separatist areas of the Donbas. This time, the Biden administration had adroitly laid the foundation for close allied coordination.
Fourth, global corporations operating in Russia are more sensitive to risk. In the 1970s, few foreign corporations even operated in the USSR. In 2022, executives at corporate global headquarters want to avoid taint by association with Russia. Roughly 400 companies have announced plans to pull out of Russia. Others have suspended activities.
Fifth, Russia today is not the USSR. The Soviet Union was not integrated with the world economy the way Russia had become. The Russian stock market crashed after the invasion, and only re-opened this week with heavy restrictions on trading. The ruble has dropped like a stone. Russia’ s foreign reserves have shriveled.
Putin’ s order to invade Ukraine is sending Russia back to a Soviet style autarky. Putin seems to know and accept that, but will other Russians? That said, could the United States and its allies succeed at causing Russia severe pain but fail at changing Putin’ s idea fixe and gaining control of Ukraine?
China is a big question mark. Putin has backed Russia into an uncomfortable dependence on the People’ s Republic of China. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping both want to challenge U.S. hegemony, but China is far more a part of the global economy.
While Chinese arms and technology still reflect its early dependence on the Soviet Union, China has a far more sophisticated economy. Now Russia needs China to maintain decent levels of consumption and to provide weapons and parts for its military and civil aviation fleets.
Russia needs China more than the reverse.
China has experienced a terrible harvest and needs Russia’ s grains. China is also negotiating to purchase more Russian oil and coal—no doubt at bargain basement prices.
China, however, has been the greatest beneficiary of globalization. Foreign private and public investments from the West have helped lift millions out of poverty.
At this moment, however, Covid saps China’ s growth, a concern for Xi, who seeks internal calm and control particularly in the months leading to September when he plans to be reelected for an unprecedented third five year term.
China rejected Russia’ s request for Chinese aviation parts, Russian news agencies reported, lest it suffer an export-control boycott by the U.S.-led coalition. China has to worry about America’ s novel “ secondary sanctions ” on industrial parts and replacements that contain U.S. content including intellectual property such as software codes.
The principal concern of those hoping economic sanctions will succeed is whether Biden can sustain U.S. domestic political support. Since politics doesn’ t stop at America’ s water’ s edge, even during this dire moment, there are opportunistic Republican politicians who may not be willing to stay the course when economic measures bite here at home.
Sen. Marco Rubio ( R., Fla), has found a wedge issue and began accusing China of “ sanction-busting ” —perhaps an echo of Scoop Jackson’ s Cold War rhetoric of the 1970s?
We are at a moment in history that reminds us of Back to the Future, but this movie is different from the Cold War version. The world is experiencing a tectonic geostrategic shift that could make the U.S. coalition of market economies the winner of this 21st-century round of economic warfare.
Russia’ s attack has stimulated a closer union of Western economies that presents China with a long-term challenge. It also provides America and Europe an opportunity to wake up from a global economic slumber dating back to the 1970s during which time China—with 1.4 billion people—has become the world’ s preeminent producer of consumer goods and much else.
Hopefully, the U.S. will seize this moment as a wakeup call. America’ s 20th-century economic hegemony may have expired, but the U.S. is still powerful in science and technology. China knows it.
America has a lot of work to do to maintain its place in the world that it has taken for granted for so long. It will take political leaders on both sides of the aisle to rise to the moment, and that is a huge unknown. | business |
Etsy boycott: sellers lament 'pandemic profiteering ' from company | More than 8,000 people have signed a petition calling on Etsy to call off plans to raise fees for sellers on its platform — and some Etsy makers are threatening to go on strike.
The fee increase, which is set to begin April 11, 2022, will raise the e-commerce site’ s transaction fees from 5% per order to 6.5% per order, according to the
company’ s annual report
.
The petition posted to Coworker.org by Etsy
ETSY,
+0.55%
seller Kristi Cassidy is addressed to company CEO Josh Silverman, and refers to the raised fee as “
pandemic profiteering
. ”
“ They plan to increase our transaction fees by 30%, ” the petition says. “ We’ re going on strike on April 11 to call on Etsy to hold itself accountable to sellers and buyers. Sellers will put their shops on vacation mode in protest. Buyers can show support by agreeing to boycott Etsy from April 11-18. ”
See also:
Elon Musk says he ‘ supposedly’ has COVID again
The petition also lists other desired changes from Etsy sellers, such as cracking down on resellers — those selling mass produced goods, instead of items they make themselves, which some argue goes against the site’ s self-described identity as an online shop for “ handmade, vintage, custom, and unique gifts. ”
Etsy said that the raised fees will help them weed out these resellers, however.
“ We’ re committed to supporting our community of 5.3 million sellers around the world by helping them grow their businesses. Sellers have consistently told us they want us to expand our efforts around marketing, customer support, and removing listings that don’ t meet our policies, ” an Etsy spokesperson told MarketWatch. “ Our revised fee structure will enable us to increase our investments in each of these key areas so that we can better serve our community and keep Etsy a beloved, trusted, and thriving marketplace. ”
Etsy last increased its seller fees in 2018
from 3.5% to 5%, resulting in similar negative feelings from some makers on the platform. For example, the raised fee forced Etsy seller Christian Adair to move items he was selling from Etsy to his personal online shop following the fee hike, he told
MarketWatch in 2018
.
In February, Etsy reported
fourth-quarter gross merchandise sales of $ 4.2 billion
, a 16% increase year over year. Etsy’ s stock has spiked since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with shares up 246.6% over the last two years.
The
“ Cancel the fee increase ” petition
says that, “ even though it’ s the hard work of Etsy’ s sellers who’ ve made it the massively successful company it is today, we have fewer rights and less of a voice in our workplaces than ever. ” | business |
An Operation Warp Speed need for digital therapeutics | Kelly Stanton, director of quality at Qualio, explains why she feels there is a need for an Operation Warp Speed style approach to digital therapeutics in the U.S.
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the incredible fragility of the modern world. Still, two developments brought hope during these trying times: the prospect of a vaccine against the virus and the adoption of remote care strategies to stay connected with patients.
While waiting for “ Operation Warp Speed ” to produce a safe and effective vaccine, providers turned to virtual care in droves. At the height of the pandemic, the industry saw a 63-fold increase in remote consults among Medicare patients and similar spikes in other patient populations. This shift was only possible because of significant regulatory flexibilities.
Without these regulatory changes, most providers would not have had access to the digital tools and technologies to effectively engage with their patients remotely. They would not have discovered the degree to which patients are willing and able to use apps and remote devices to manage their own health. And they might not now be such vocal advocates for additional ways to use breakthrough digital therapeutics to deliver even more efficient, convenient, and effective care.
We can start by learning from the positive outcomes of Operation Warp Speed and developing our own version of this successful public-private partnership. By finding the balance point between speed to market and appropriate regulatory oversight, we can accelerate promising technologies, reduce administrative burdens, and strengthen our healthcare ecosystem to prepare for the new challenges to come.
Digital therapeutics ( DTx) is a broad class of software applications designed to deliver evidence-based healthcare prevention, management, or treatment services to users.
Digital therapeutics are different from the thousands of health apps available in major smartphone stores. Most downloadable apps offer wellness tools, patient education, or personal health monitoring services, but they can not claim to treat a disease or offer trusted medical advice.
Digital tools that actively treat or prevent health conditions require significant testing and regulatory oversight to ensure patient safety and clinical effectiveness. At the moment, however, only a handful of digital therapeutics are approved by the FDA each year.
The FDA’ s Digital Centre of Excellence is still evaluating the digital therapeutics market and designing regulatory guardrails for the emerging field. Unfortunately, that’ s a slow and challenging process – and in the meantime, developers are left trying to navigate shifting rules and complete complex submissions with copious amounts of quality data and other important information.
As a result, many developers view the FDA as an obstacle to getting their products into the marketplace. But that shouldn’ t be the case.
The FDA itself acknowledges that there are many opportunities to improve the digital therapeutics approval process. They are actively working on doing so, and continue to request industry input and involvement as they establish new guidelines.
Digital therapeutics developers must take them up on this offer. If we participate in the process, we can share actionable insights on what to retain from previous regulatory structures and what components we can discard in the future to enhance and streamline the approval pathway. Collaboration across the industry is essential for creating safer, more effective products and getting them to market faster.
One of the most notable things coming out of the pandemic is the shared realisation that working harder doesn’ t equate to working smarter. As DTx companies look to forge ahead in 2022, they must take time to rethink critical business processes that are ripe for innovation.
This type of lean thinking is best exemplified by recent innovations in clinical trials that took place during the pandemic. No longer are we expecting patients to come into their doctor’ s office for testing and data gathering as part of the clinical trial process. Instead, decentralized clinical trials are taking hold. The recent partnership between CVS Health and Medable is a perfect example of the type of lean, innovative thinking that DTx companies will need to get ahead.
DTx leaders need to use an Operation Warp Speed mentality and identify specific business processes that are ripe for change. While this can be a resource intensive and challenging change management process, the time spent upfront on rethinking the way things have always been done is precisely what will separate the leaders and the left behinds in DTx. But one note of caution. Quality must remain a focal point as part of this process of adopting lean thinking and best practices. Speed to market means little if your DTx ends up being recalled.
Actively collaborating in the regulatory process and taking an active role in driving lean thinking and innovation in processes that are long overdue for change will determine which DTx companies forge ahead in 2022 and which fall behind. If we can create an Operation Warp Speed for digital therapeutics, we will take a strong first step toward establishing a new paradigm where innovative digital tools support preventive care over reactive care. | tech |
The Fed Might Raise Rates by a Half-Point. How It Could Play Out. | One week after the Federal Reserve
raised interest rates for the first time in three years
by a quarter of a percentage point, officials say they’ re considering an even bigger move.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this week that
a half-percentage-point rate increase could be in the cards
as the central bank tries to cool down the economy and get soaring inflation under control. That would be the first time the central bank has done so in 20 years.
also read
The Best Bond Bets as Interest Rates Rise
Housing May Not Get as Hammered as Usual in This Rate-Hike Cycle
The ‘ Yield Curve’ Is Close to Inverting. A Different Curve Tells a More Upbeat Story.
Commentary: Global Growth Is Slowing. We’ re Not Prepared.
And there may be more than one big interest rate hike under consideration.
Citigroup
on Friday said it now expects four consecutive half-point moves this year, and possibly more if inflation remains above 5%.
Although half-point rate hikes are rare steps for the Fed, their impact on the stock market is by and large not dramatic.
How Often Does the Fed Raise Interest Rates by a Half-Point?
The federal-funds rate has been effectively zero since March 2020 when the global economy shut down to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. The rate, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, sets the target interest rate for commercial banks to borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It’ s often viewed as a benchmark that influences short-term interest rates for everything from car loans to credit cards.
The FOMC now expects to
raise the rate at each of its remaining six meetings
this year. If all of those moves are quarter-point hikes, the rate could reach a range of 1.75% to 2% by the end of 2022, the highest since 2019. The rate would be even higher if any of the rate changes are a half-point or more.
Over the past few decades, the Fed has tended to make small adjustments to its rate—like the quarter of a percentage point hike seen last week.
Since the 1970s, the central bank has hiked and slashed interest rates a total of 184 times. During that period, the rate was raised by a quarter-point or less 55 times and cut by a quarter-point or less 33 times. That alone accounts for half of the rate changes.
In comparison, the central bank raised rates by half a percentage point or more 44 times in total, but mostly in the’ 70s and early’ 80s when officials were chasing skyrocketing inflation. Since the early’ 80s, such big moves occurred only 12 times.
It’ s been decades since the U.S. has seen a period of swift tightening. The last time the Fed hiked interest rates by half a percentage point was May 2000 during the dot-com bubble. And the last time the Fed hiked rates by a half-point or more multiple times in one year was 1994 in a move to stave off inflation.
What Do Rate Hikes Mean For The Economy?
The Fed often raises its target interest rate when the economy is overheated––often shown in rising inflation.
Higher rates make borrowing money more expensive, and therefore encourage companies and people to borrow less and save more. As a result, less money would be circulating in the economy, which leads to slower growth and less inflation.
But it can be tricky to pace those moves. If the Fed doesn’ t raise rates fast enough to rein in inflation, the economy could suffer from the double whammy of rapidly rising prices and slow growth,
or stagflation
, as the U.S. saw in the 1970s.
At the time, the Fed was pursuing the so-called stop-go monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation, with rates seesawing up and down. That made both problems worse.
On the other hand, if the central bank raises rates too quickly, it could damp the economy and cause a recession, like what happened in the early 1980s when rates jumped from 10% to 20% in four months.
How Do Stocks Perform When the Fed Raises Rates?
Many investors believe higher interest rates might lead to lower stock prices because they discount the future cash flows of companies, making them worth less today. As bond yields rise, investors also tend to sell their equity holdings and move to the more attractive fixed-income investments instead.
But in reality, the relationship between rates and stocks is more complicated than textbooks suggest, says Russ Koesterich, portfolio manager for BlackRock’ s Global Allocation Fund. “ It very much depends on where the rates are starting from and how fast they are moving in up. ”
In the’ 70s and early’ 80s, higher rates often coincided with poor stock returns. But when rates are rising from low levels like today’ s, stock valuations have been more likely to rise than fall, according to Koesterich.
Barron’ s
analyzed the
S & P 500
’ s
average performance six and 12 months after the Fed adjusts its interest rate. Whether it’ s a cut or hike and regardless of the size of the rate moves, in nearly every case, the stock market is higher one year after the change.
When the central bank raised or cut rates by a quarter-point or less, the S & P 500 returned an average of about 4% six months later and around 7% a year later. Returns also tend to be good one year after big moves of more than 1 percentage point, with the S & P 500 advancing 9% for hikes and 19% for cuts of that magnitude, on average.
One exception was when the Fed raised rates between half of a percentage point and 1 full point. Stocks performed poorly, on average, both six months and a year after the change.
Stocks tend to not react much on the day that rate changes are announced. That’ s because the news is often already priced into the market. “ It’ s not just the Fed’ s announcement, but what investors expect it to do, ” says Koesterich, “ The Fed has been more intent on telegraphing their intentions, and that will affect investors’ reactions. ”
Koesterich notes that higher rates often come during times with faster economic and earnings growth, which can make up for companies’ discounted future cash flows and support their stock prices.
Stocks are also less likely to collapse because investors don’ t have many reasons to move their money into bonds and cash when rates are as low as they are today––even when they are rising. The fed-funds’ nominal rate has remained effectively zero since March 2020, and the mounting inflation means the real rate has long fallen into the negative territory.
“ In the early 2000s when real rate was very positive, if people wanted to step away from equities, they can just park their money in cash and it’ d be good returns. That’ s not available today, ” says Koesterich. “ There are not a lot of alternatives producing real returns. ”
Write to Evie Liu at
evie.liu @ barrons.com | business |
'We're concerned this woman may persuade him to leave his house to her ': My father, 85, moved in with a female friend. Can I declare his home abandoned? | Dear Quentin,
My sister and I are worried about Daddy. Our mom passed away about six months ago. About two weeks ago he started talking about a high school “ girl buddy, ” saying they may start living together to get to know each other again.
My dad is 85 and not in good health. Fast forward to a week ago: he just up-and-left the house and moved in with this woman. She lives two hours away from our home. He walked out the door like he’ d be back in an hour. We don’ t think he’ ll ever return.
My sister is supposed to inherit his house, according to his will. Can we have his house declared abandoned? He isn’ t willing to put his house in my sister’ s name. We’ re concerned this woman may persuade him to leave his house to her.
My sister is the executor of his will. We are also still in the process of probating my mom’ s will. Any advice will be appreciated.
The Daughter
Dear Daughter,
Your father’ s home belongs to him and him alone, and he is under no obligation to put the house in your sister’ s name. Nor is he obliged to stay there by himself if he finds companionship elsewhere. This may be his last chance to have a romantic relationship with another woman, and it could bring him peace and happiness in the last years of his life.
Making moves to declare his house abandoned after two weeks because you fear he will leave it to his friend is overstepping your responsibilities as his daughter, and misunderstands the legal process. What’ s more, he has not relinquished all rights to the control of this property. It’ s his home, and he is under no obligation to spend all of his time there.
“ In New York, for example, the abandonment law would apply to one- to four-family residential real properties that are subject to a mortgage, ” says Neil V. Carbone, trusts and estates partner at
Farrell Fritz PC
. “ After the homeowner falls 90 days behind on the mortgage payments, the mortgagee can take steps to have the property deemed abandoned. ”
I understand your concerns. Six months after his wife’ s death leaves him in a vulnerable place. On the one hand, this could be a perfectly innocent relationship. On the other, she could be a bad actor, and someone who has her eyes on his estate. However, you have no reason to suspect the latter. Has she isolated him from his family? Are there signs of physical abuse, and/or coercive control?
“
I understand your concerns. On the one hand, this could be a perfectly innocent relationship. On the other, she could be a bad actor, and someone who has her eyes on his estate.
”
It does happen. Speaking about his second wife,
this man
told his son: “ Son, get a lawyer. That woman is going to take away your inheritance! ” Elderly parents can be vulnerable, and fall victim to scammers and swindlers. But you are a long way from saving your father from an abusive relationship. Focus on his health and wellbeing, rather than his house and estate.
That said, the state of his health and fate of his estate are not mutually exclusive. Your father’ s health problems may call into question any last minute changes he makes, Carbone says. “ If his health problems relate to his mental health, he may not have the requisite capacity to execute a new will. Presumably, any lawyer he meets with for a new will will explore and confirm his capacity. ”
If he has physical problems, “ medications may interfere with his capacity and/or make him more susceptible to influence, ” he adds. “ Even without the issues that medications can present, if his physical problems make him particularly reliant on someone else, he may be subject to undue influence or even duress from that person to make changes in her or his favor.
The best thing you can do now is keep your father in your life; offer him your help in maintaining his home and collecting his mail. Get to know this woman, and make sure that your father is in constant communication with you. If you overreact and start pushing for a conservatorship or power of attorney, you could damage your relationship with him.
In that case, your fears about his estate would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Parents can be victims of undue influence, but they can also push back against adult children who they fear are overstepping their mark, and wishing to exert more control over their parents and/or their estate. In theatrical plays, every character has something they want. Real life is often no different.
Yo
u
can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell @ marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on
Twitter.
Check out
the Moneyist private Facebook
group, where we look for answers to life’ s thorniest money issues. Readers write in to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.
The Moneyist regrets he can not reply to questions individually.
By emailing your questions, you agree to having them published anonymously on MarketWatch.
By submitting your story to Dow Jones & Company, the publisher of MarketWatch, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties
.
More from Quentin Fottrell
:
•
My girlfriend says I should tip in restaurants. I say waitstaff are just like construction and fast-food workers. Who’ s right?
•
‘ He was infatuated with her’: My brother had a drinking problem and took his own life. He left $ 6 million to his former girlfriend who used to buy him alcohol
•
‘
She had a will, but it was null and void’: My friend and her sister are fighting over their mother’ s life-insurance policy and bank account. Who should win out? | business |
March Madness bracket busted? You can still score free Krispy Kreme doughnuts | If you’ re playing the guess-the-winners game when it comes to the NCAA March Madness tournament, there’ s a good chance your bracket is already busted. After all, there’ s only a one-in-9.2 quintillion chance of having a perfect bracket through the end of the entire competition.
But busted bracketeers can take heart: At least there are some freebies they can claim, including
Krispy Kreme doughnuts
.
Yes, the latest marketing strategy among companies is to offer consumers perks of various kinds connected with failed bracket predictions. The idea is simple enough, explain marketing professionals: The March Madness tournament is a perennial hot topic — and so is the bracket game attached to it — so why not try to tie your brand to the trend and profit from it?
Krispy Kreme
DNUT,
-3.78%
is among the biggest names taking such a promotional approach. The chain is offering a free doughnut — specifically, its original glazed variety — to anyone who shows proof of a busted bracket. Company officials are quick to note it doesn’ t have to be a March Madness bracket — any kind of bracket from any kind of tournament or challenge will suffice.
“ We’ re a brand that’ s about having fun, so it seemed like a good time for us to have fun with this, ” said Dave Skena, Krispy Kreme’ s chief marketing officer.
The doughnut company is, of course, famous for doing giveaways as a promotional tool — it offered freebies
tied to COVID vaccinations
and even gives customers
a dozen doughnuts
on their birthday.
Still, Kripsy is hardly alone when it comes to bracket offers. PointsBet, the online sports-betting company, is giving customers
a free $ 10 bet
with proof of a busted bracket. Other companies, from
banking giant CapitalOne
COF,
+0.60%
to
the White Castle fast-food chain
, have had busted-bracket promotions in the past.
Some companies simply use the bracket craze to tout their brand.
A case in point: The Marlene Meyerson JCC Manhattan, a Jewish community center in New York City, has been promoting membership in its gym via social media with a pitch that says “ Bracket busted? You can still be a March Madness winner! ” The organization is offering
a free month’ s membership
to those who sign up in March, but it isn’ t requiring proof of a busted bracket.
JCC Manhattan executive Melissa Donovan said that membership sales are up by 30% this month over the pre-pandemic period in March 2019. She thinks the promotion is partly the reason.
It captures “ the essence of consumer psychology this time of year, ” she said.
Craig Agranoff, a Florida-based marketing specialist, says it’ s indeed smart for companies to play up the bracket craze, since it’ s such a trending topic. If anything, he wonders why more companies don’ t do busted-bracket promotions or themed advertising.
“ A dentist should be talking about busted teeth, ” he said.
Krispy Kreme officials say it’ s too early to tell if the chain’ s busted-bracket promotion will bring in more customers, though it’ s already creating buzz on social media. Skena, the company’ s marketing chief, also notes that if you happen to be that one-in-9.2 quintillion person with a perfect bracket, you can still claim the offer.
“ We’ ll give them a doughnut, ” he pledged. | business |
Lateral flowing testing in primary care from 1 April | It is the AOP’ s understanding that NHS England guidance states primary care staff should conduct asymptomatic testing twice per week.
The withdrawal of government-funded ( free to the public) lateral flow tests, announced as part of the Living with COVID guidelines, means that practices and staff will no longer have access to these tests at present.
Given the proximity between optometrists and patients, the AOP is aware that the lack of testing has the potential to place patients at risk. From 1 April, practitioners will be faced with the choice of either not testing, or self-funding the tests, which with other rising costs could be unaffordable for many.
We understand the level of concern this situation is creating for our members. As the deadline of 31 March approaches, it is important that practices have clarity on the availability of tests and the associated costs. We have raised this question as a matter of urgency with NHS England. | general |
Cork hospitals introduce visiting restrictions amid rising Covid-19 cases | Cork University Hospital is currently asking that members of the public only attend the Emergency Department if absolutely necessary, as it manages a surge in Covid-19 activity along with increased emergency presentations. Picture Dan Linehan
Some hospitals are introducing visiting restrictions amid a surge in Covid-19 activity while others are cancelling elective surgery as 475 admitted patients are today waiting for beds across the country.
According to today’ s INMO Trolley Watch, 403 patients are waiting for a bed in the emergency department ( ED), while 72 are in wards elsewhere in the hospital.
University Hospital Limerick currently has 51 patients on trolleys while 44 are waiting for a bed at University Hospital Galway and 37 at Cork University Hospital, all of which are in the Emergency Department.
Earlier, two professors at University Hospital Limerick called for the setting up of an elective surgery hospital in the region.
The UL Hospitals Group said most elective care at University Hospital Limerick is deferred until further notice as they prioritise emergency and time-critical care.
Almost all scheduled care at Ennis, Nenagh, St John's and Croom Orthopaedic hospitals is deferred effective Monday, March 26.
Services at University Maternity Hospital Limerick are unaffected and pregnant patients are advised to attend their appointments.
Cork University Hospital is currently asking that members of the public only attend the emergency department if absolutely necessary, as it manages a surge in Covid-19 activity along with increased emergency presentations.
“ Due to this increased level of activity and subsequent admissions, it is regrettable that some patients may experience a delay in the ED, ” it said in a statement. | general |
Ucits’ clash with IM rules could cause collateral damage | Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
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Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
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The sixth and final implementation of the non-cleared margin rules could create a hedging dilemma for popular European investment vehicles, as new requirements to collateralise over-the-counter derivatives might clash with longstanding investor protection rules aimed at fostering liquidity.
The existing Ucits guidelines governing more than €8 trillion of assets under management largely ban the reuse of collateral. This means that variation margin received on in-the-money derivatives hedges
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Liquidity stress testing using optimal portfolio liquidation | Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
According to a survey conducted by Accenture, 77% of risk leaders believe that complex, interconnected new risks are emerging at a more rapid pace than ever before. Most risk leaders are satisfiedâ¦
Todayâs financial crime threats are dynamic and fast-moving. Financial criminals continue to up their game and itâs critical for firms to move even faster than the speed of crime. With many regulaâ¦
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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Shionogi signs supply deal with Japanese government for COVID-19 pill | Shionogi & Co. has signed a basic agreement with the government to supply an oral COVID-19 treatment it is now developing, the firm said Friday.
The government is considering buying a million doses of the drug, pending regulatory approval, the company added in a statement.
Shares of the company surged as much as 3.9% on the news, versus a decline of 0.3% in Tokyo’ s benchmark index.
Last month Shionogi sought approval for the pill, a protease inhibitor known as S-217622 that would become Japan’ s third anti-viral approved for coronavirus patients, following those developed by Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co.
The company has global aspirations for the pill, saying last week it would launch a late-stage trial worldwide with U.S. government support. Chief Executive Isao Teshirogi has said production could reach 10 million doses a year. | tech |
Kishida proposes April visit to Japan for Biden | Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has sounded out U.S. President Joe Biden about visiting Japan in late April, government sources said Friday.
The proposal was made when Kishida had a brief conversation with Biden on Thursday in Brussels, where a summit of the Group of Seven industrialized nations and an emergency meeting of NATO were held, the sources said.
Japan is arranging to host a summit of “ the Quad ” group that also includes Australia and India in Tokyo by June.
The outlook for realizing Biden’ s first visit to Japan since assuming office in January 2021 for a Quad summit remains uncertain, however, due to the war in Ukraine. Australia is also expected to hold a general election by May, the sources noted.
“ We are making arrangements to set a date but nothing specific has been decided yet, ” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a press briefing on Friday.
Kishida and Biden agreed during their conversation in Brussels to strengthen the bilateral alliance via dialogue, using such occasions as the U.S. president’ s possible visit to Japan.
Kishida, who took office in October, had initially hoped to visit the United States for a summit with Biden but surging COVID-19 cases forced him to give up on the idea.
The forthcoming Quad summit would be an opportunity for the four nations to deepen cooperation in the fields of security and economy in the Indo-Pacific region, where China’ s clout has been increasing.
Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine has raised concern about its ramifications for the region.
During a visit to India earlier this month, Kishida agreed with his counterpart, Narendra Modi, that they will not tolerate any attempt to change the status quo by force in the Indo-Pacific or anywhere.
As India has traditionally close ties with Russia, how far the Quad members can show their unity over the crisis in Ukraine has been in focus.
China and India were among the 35 countries that abstained from the vote on a U.N. General Assembly resolution in early March deploring Russia’ s aggression against Ukraine. | tech |
Experts see China stuck in a slowly evolving 'COVID zero ' loop | After fighting COVID-19 for almost two years with a zero-tolerance approach, China is now in the midst of its worst wave since the initial outbreak in Wuhan. Having breached what’ s arguably the world’ s toughest containment regime, omicron — the most infectious coronavirus variant — is starting to test Beijing’ s “ COVID zero ” resolve.
Despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’ s call mid-March to limit the economic and social fallout of virus elimination, large-scale lockdowns and mass testing drives are back. Authorities are tweaking rules, however, to make some of the measures more flexible, targeted and nimble to avoid severe manufacturing disruptions. Still, the last COVID zero holdout isn’ t in a hurry to abandon the policy, even as the rest of the world moves to treating it as endemic.
As the latest wave puts pressure on already shaken global supply chains, we asked experts — including some we spoke to in November — how long the world’ s No. 2 economy can continue an approach that’ s leaving it increasingly isolated. Many stuck to their previous assessment that Beijing won’ t ease curbs and open up this year. Some said China’ s virus strategy could become more practical, learning from Hong Kong’ s current virus crisis triggered by the pathogen evading strict border curbs and then not being adequately contained once inside.
Conditions are not yet right for China to reopen because of low vaccination rates among the elderly and a healthcare system that is inadequate, said Chen Zhengming, an epidemiology professor at the University of Oxford.
Chen predicts further tweaking of the approach but no major changes, with the overall goal remaining the same “ for a long time ” — echoing his observation last year. China would face a “ colossal outbreak ” on a scale beyond anything any other country has yet seen, if it were to reopen in a similar manner to the U.S., a study by Peking University showed in November.
“ I think the government is also in some way trying to procrastinate, betting on the virus becoming milder in the next few months, which is not unreasonable, ” Chen said. “ That’ s when reopening will be less costly. ”
Huang Yanzhong, a senior fellow for global health at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, also reiterated his previous stance, saying no change is likely at least until after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party later this year, at which Xi is expected to secure a record third term as the nation’ s top leader.
Barricades surround an area under lockdown following a COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai, China, on Thursday. | REUTERS
The review of COVID zero is no longer a public health decision, but a political one, and leaders would want to be sure reversing course is politically safe, Huang said. The new willingness to be flexible, which is long overdue, shows “ they have realized it’ s impossible to eliminate the virus and have to address complaints about excessive COVID-19 curbs, especially from the country’ s big cities, ” he said.
Still, the adjustments being made in places like Hong Kong — which is easing some travel and social-distancing curbs despite a high caseload — shows authorities are being more practical, said Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. Big cities “ may still go back to COVID zero, but how long would be the biggest challenge, ” he said.
George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’ s China Center, said his views on how China’ s COVID-19 policy will play out are little changed from when he spoke to Bloomberg News in November.
“ I still don’ t see any meaningful change in the current policy until after the Party Congress, perhaps not until 2023, ” he said. “ Closed borders are a pain and exact major costs, but I’ m not sure the government is so viscerally opposed to this idea. ” Altering course will be tough until China has effective mRNA vaccines, he added.
Rolling out booster shots to the vast majority of China’ s 1.4 billion people, especially the elderly, may help Beijing — always averse to disruption that could lead to social unrest — feel more confident about opening up. A recent Hong Kong study showed three doses of the domestically developed Sinovac Biotech Ltd. vaccine rolled out to millions in China can be equally effective in preventing death and severe disease as the mRNA shots made by firms such as BioNTech SE.
Allowing manufacturers flexibility amid COVID zero might only go so far, as other parts of the economy, such as the services sector, will continue to suffer as a result of the curbs in place, Magnus said.
Frank Tsai, a lecturer at the Emlyon Business School’ s Shanghai campus and founder of consulting firm China Crossroads, said that the government is “ still extremely reluctant to let case counts rise. ”
Beijing needs to educate people of the inevitability of rising infections and dispel fears associated with it before it can truly loosen up on COVID zero, according to Tsai. That hasn’ t happened yet. Top health officials have reiterated omicron is far worse than the flu and continue to say publicly that letting the virus roam free will cause substantial illnesses and deaths.
The leeway granted to factories amid lockdowns and Xi’ s new mantra don’ t mean China is dismantling COVID zero, according to Bruce Pang, head of strategy and macro research at China Renaissance Securities Ltd.
“ China will stick to its zero-tolerance approach, ” Pang said. Phrases in its statements “ that China shouldn’ t waver in fighting the virus imply any adjustment will come with the pre-condition of eliminating infections. ”
But this may mark the beginning of a gradual change in rhetoric from Beijing, allowing time for people to understand that “ the new form of COVID is not that dangerous, ” said Vitaly Umansky, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein. “ This will be a multi-month process where the dialog around what COVID is, how dangerous it is, and what it really means needs to change before you can start having a radical change of policy. ”
Quarantine workers on a street in a neighborhood that was just put under lockdown for rising COVID-19 cases in Shanghai, China, on March 15. Many Asian-Pacific countries are dismantling thickets of coronavirus pandemic rules at bewildering speeds, with one notable exception: mainland China, which is still rolling out lockdowns. | QILAI SHEN / THE NEW YORK TIMES
China’ s past battle against COVID-19 has had relatively little impact on the global supply chain, but omicron’ s widespread penetration of manufacturing hubs means bigger risks from a rigid adherence to COVID zero, Umansky said, adding it explains why Shenzhen eased quarantine rules quickly, even though it still has cases. “ When you go into lockdown, it just becomes a huge problem, ” he said.
Beijing can’ t drop COVID zero, at least not before the Communist Party summit later this year, according to Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA. “ A large COVID wave which increased the number of cases massively in China would be too costly politically, ” she said.
Still, Xi’ s recent adjustment could be the result of “ a real power struggle ” between Beijing and local governments, which have had to spend more on instituting curbs at a time when they are getting less from the central government and land sales amid a property downturn, she said.
A recent politburo meeting called for stricter implementation of COVID-19 control measures while minimizing the impact on the economy, suggesting the dynamic COVID zero approach will last longer, said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank. Ding told Bloomberg News in November that the policy could stay in place at least until March this year. How much longer it will last depends on the vaccination rate of the elderly, availability of effective medicines and preparedness of the medical system for a spike in cases, Ding said.
Tweaks to COVID zero, similar to those announced in Hong Kong on reducing quarantine for inbound travelers, could also be introduced as part of an effort to help the economy, Ding said.
When China eventually reopens, it will do so cautiously, as the country can’ t afford social unrest caused by the inevitable surge in hospitalizations and deaths, said Eric Zhu, an economist covering China and Hong Kong at Bloomberg Economics.
The dynamic COVID zero policy will need to adapt because the economic costs are increasing, said Gary Bowerman, director of travel and tourism research firm Check-in Asia. The current COVID-19 situation in mainland China doesn’ t suggest a reopening is imminent, he said.
“ I think China will open up in a gradual and phased manner, ” Bowerman said. “ Hong Kong and Macau are the priorities in the near future. Setting a hard date is pretty tricky. ” | tech |
Air crash disaster risks an even wider rift for Boeing and China | Determining why a Boeing Co. passenger jet flown by China Eastern Airlines Corp. plummeted to the ground from 29,000 feet ( 8,840 meters) is a thorny task in itself. Now, politics risks complicating the investigation and amplifying the fallout.
With relations between Washington and Beijing at their lowest ebb in years, the probe into China’ s worst aviation disaster in more than a decade — the crash of a U.S.-made plane run by a Chinese, state-owned airline — has turned the two archrivals into reluctant bedfellows.
Both sides stand to lose if the investigation becomes politicized, ensnared in a wider fight for dominance between the two superpowers that’ s touched everything from trade and the origins of the coronavirus to the war in Ukraine.
A transparent inquiry into the March 21 crash would bolster China’ s ambition to be a leader in global aviation as a regulator, and eventually a planemaker on par with Boeing and Airbus SE.
“ How they’ re perceived around the globe is at stake, ” said George Ferguson, a defense and aerospace analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.
A prolonged investigation would be damaging for Boeing, leaving the U.S. manufacturer sidelined in its largest overseas market, where it’ s working to resume deliveries of the 737 Max jet after a three-year halt. A shortage of narrow-body jets could crimp China’ s airlines once COVID-19 recedes, especially if Boeing were to reassign their Max delivery slots to other customers.
Airlines around the world are watching the proceedings closely. That’ s because the model involved in the fatal accident, Boeing’ s 737-800, is one of the most widely flown aircraft on the planet. The Chicago-based planemaker delivered more than 5,100 of the type over two decades before wrapping up production of the passenger version in 2019.
Under a United Nations treaty, the country where a crash occurs leads the investigation into what happened, and representatives from nations in which the plane and its components were built have a right to participate. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board has already nominated its investigator, along with a technical team from the Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing and the maker of the destroyed jet’ s engines, Ohio-based CFM International.
The China Eastern aircraft, a 737-800 model, slammed into a hillside in southern China on Monday. No survivors among the 132 passengers and crew have been found. From a steady cruise, the plane suddenly tipped into a nosedive, flight-tracking data show. After briefly leveling out, it speared into the ground.
The unusual nature of the crash will make transparency in the investigation all the more key, with some commentators already speculating about what may have gone wrong. The lack of an obvious answer has put the focus on the aircraft’ s black boxes as a source of possible clues. Searchers at the crash site found the cockpit voice recorder on Wednesday, and it has been sent to Beijing for analysis. They’ re still searching for the flight data recorder.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying holds a news conference in Beijing. Shortly after the plane crash, Hua accused U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken of “ spreading lies about ‘ genocide’ ” when China was dealing with the immediate tragedy. | REUTERS
But it didn’ t take long for mistrust between the two sides to flare. Shortly after the crash, Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying accused U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken of “ spreading lies about ‘ genocide’ ” when China was dealing with the immediate tragedy. “ How callous! ” she said on Twitter, in apparent reference to a speech Blinken gave in which he listed China and Russia among the countries selling weapons to aid Myanmar’ s crackdown on the Rohingya minority group.
U.S. frustration was already mounting over China’ s reluctance to put pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
In a worst-case scenario, U.S. participants in the China Eastern probe could be excluded from key elements of the investigation, such as full access to data and audio from the black boxes. The probe has, in part, become a test of China’ s commitment to aviation safety, an area it’ s improved significantly on over the past two decades.
“ It’ s in China’ s interests to identify the cause of the crash, ” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “ There is no doubt that including Boeing representatives will aid in doing so. ”
So far, China seems to be following the same playbook for crash investigations as agencies in the U.S. and Europe have. Officials have held daily media conferences and made public key developments like the recovery of the jet’ s cockpit recorder. They’ ve also reached out to family members and there’ s even a livestream video of the salvage effort, showing firefighters and workers walking through the mud, picking out pieces of wreckage.
Authorities have also ordered a safety review encompassing much of the country’ s aviation industry, while China Eastern has said it’ s carrying out its own comprehensive investigation. State media also released a recording of air traffic control and pilots in other planes trying to contact the China Eastern crew.
Still, China’ s desire to maintain international stature — and an overriding focus on preserving social stability inside the country — risks undermining a probe conducted alongside its chief global rival, particularly if it exposes unpalatable actions by a Chinese pilot or malpractice by the state-run airline.
Just over a year ago, China was accused of stonewalling on demands from the U.S. and some of its allies for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus. Overseas experts were eventually allowed into the country as part of a World Health Organization mission, but they were denied meaningful access in the original epicenter of Wuhan, raising questions about the outcomes of the probe.
U.S. crash investigators haven’ t yet traveled to China as a result of Beijing’ s COVID-19 restrictions, but are participating in the probe, the NTSB said in a statement Wednesday. So far, there have been no indications the U.S. will be excluded, said two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing the sensitive issue. While the contents of the first black box are already being analyzed and the crash site pored over, it’ s not unusual for outside teams to arrive at foreign accident scenes days later.
Boeing has “ been in close communication with our customer and regulatory authorities since the accident, and have offered the full support of our technical experts to the investigation led by the Civil Aviation Administration of China, ” Dave Calhoun, the company’ s chief executive officer, told employees March 21. Though travel to the country is “ limited by visa and Covid quarantine requirements, ” the NTSB said Wednesday, “ we are working with the Department of State to address those issues with the Chinese government before any travel will be determined. ”
Asked on Thursday about inviting U.S. representatives to join the crash investigation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the government was in “ close contact ” with relevant parties.
A China Eastern Airlines Corp. aircraft takes off at Incheon International Airport in Incheon, South Korea. | BLOOMBERG
“ China will continue to follow the convention on international civil aviation and its protocols and the relevant laws in China, ” Wang said.
National pride and political tension have created hurdles for some past investigations, but countries rarely disagree on the causes of an accident. After an Ethiopian Airlines 737 Max crashed in 2019, Ethiopia balked at sending the plane’ s recorders to the U.S., but soon agreed to let France download data from the devices.
A rare exception occurred after the 1997 crash of a Silkair 737 in Indonesia. The country’ s National Transportation Safety Committee released a report in 2000 concluding there wasn’ t enough evidence to say what caused it. But in an unusual move, the NTSB issued a dissenting report saying the pilot had most likely committed murder-suicide.
Plane crash investigations usually land on one of four broad outcomes: pilots and crew were to blame, there were maintenance errors that caused the crash, the plane or its systems were faulty, or there were significant external factors, such as bad weather.
Officials in China already appear to be trying to downplay the first two possibilities, emphasizing the qualifications, experience and health of the doomed jet’ s pilots, limiting avenues for apportioning blame locally. Sun Shiying, head of China Eastern’ s Yunnan subsidiary in the province where the plane took off, said the aircraft was strictly maintained, and met all maintenance standards and airworthiness requirements before it departed for the last time. As for the weather, it was clear on the day of the crash.
China has long held ambitions to play a greater global role in the future of aviation, and establish the CAAC as a world-class regulator. It was the first country to ground the 737 Max after its second fatal crash in six months, attributed in part to a faulty system in the plane. China is also seeking some degree of self-sufficiency and international influence through national planemaker Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd., known as Comac.
“ If they’ re going to be a world player in aviation, ” Ferguson of Bloomberg Intelligence said of China’ s crash investigation, “ they’ ve got to show the same timeliness, the same thoroughness, the same specificity. ” | tech |
Biggest share of Americans since 1940s say their financial health will get worse in year ahead | The index reading for April 2021 has been corrected.
The numbers:
The final reading of U.S. consumer sentiment in March fell slightly to 59.4 and stayed at a nearly 11-year low because of high inflation and angst about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What’ s more, the greatest share of Americans since the mid-1940s said they expect their financial situation to get worse in the year ahead, according to the survey
The index registered 59.7 earlier in the month after a preliminary survey. The
report is produced by the University of Michigan
.
The index hit a pandemic peak of 88.3 in April 2021 before beginning a long slide that coincided with the surge in inflation.
Big picture:
Americans aren’ t happy about much right now — and the threat of more disruptions in their lives from the war in Ukraine is adding to their anxiety.
The biggest worry is the
worst bout of inflation in 40 years.
The cost of living has jumped almost 8% in the past year, outstripping a rapid increase in worker pay.
“ Inflation has been the primary cause of rising pessimism, with an expected year-ahead inflation rate at 5.4%, the highest since November 1981, ” said Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey.
Americans are already paying a lot more for cars, homes, rent food, gas and other staples. The Russia-Ukraine conflict could also prices even higher. Both countries are major exporters of oil, wheat and other key commodities.
The saving grace? Americans say it’ s easy to get a job. The U.S. economic recovery is likely to remain intact so long as the labor market is healthy.
Key details:
A gauge that measure what consumers think about their own financial situation and the current health of the economy slid to 67.2 from a preliminary 67.8. That’ s a 13-year low.
Another measure that asks about expectations for the next six months edged down to 54.3 from an initial 54.4. That’ s an 11-year low.
Looking ahead:
“ Confidence that economic policies will resolve the problem is essential. Unfortunately, half of all consumers unfavorably assessed current policies, more than three times the 16% who rated them favorably, ” Curtin said.
“ Making the situation even more difficult, policy makers need to take account of two unusual sources of economic uncertainty. One rather minor, the new covid variant, and a major source of continued economic disruption, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ” he added.
Market reaction:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.40%
and S & P 500
SPX,
-0.27%
were mixed in Friday trades. | business |
Battle-tested Samurai Blue eager for deep World Cup push | After perhaps the most unconventional, daunting and frustrating qualifying campaign in team history, Samurai Blue have qualified for a seventh straight FIFA World Cup and have a chance to once again test Japan’ s might against soccer’ s elite.
Thursday night’ s rain-soaked 2-0 victory over Australia was emblematic of the kind of results this Japan side has achieved over the past six months in Group B of Asia’ s third and final qualifying round.
Despite head coach Hajime Moriyasu’ s men looking superior both on paper and on the pitch, the grueling affair in Sydney seemed almost destined to end in a scoreless draw until late substitute Kaoru Mitoma instantly turned the game on its head with a pair of goals in his 10-minute appearance.
With chance after chance — most of them by profligate Liverpool winger Takumi Minamino — going wasted, Japan never quite seemed capable of getting the ball in the net at Stadium Australia until Mitoma stepped onto the pitch to deliver an unforgettable moment of magic, linking with former Kawasaki Frontale teammates Hidemasa Morita ( now with Portugal’ s Santa Clara) and Miki Yamane for the opener.
While Mitoma’ s star turn made for enthralling viewing, it would not have been necessary had Minamino converted any of the gift-wrapped opportunities he had to score against an Australian side missing many of its top players due to injuries and COVID-19 protocols.
“ I still felt like I could have scored, ” Minamino said of his two first-half efforts that struck the woodwork. “ The most important thing is that we won and I’ m happy that Kaoru did it after he replaced me. ”
Mitoma, 24, is certainly no stranger to the supersub role, having come off the bench to record most of his 13 goals and 13 assists for Frontale in his breakout 2020 rookie season.
Japan’ s Kaoru Mitoma ( center) scored a pair of goals to clinch a spot at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar during a Group B of Asia qualifying match against Australia in Sydney on Thursday. | AFP-JIJI
“ I’ m used to coming off the bench and I’ d been preparing with that sort of situation in mind, ” said Mitoma, playing this season at Belgium’ s Union SG on loan from the Premier League’ s Brighton & Hove Albion. “ Of course I’ d like to play a lot but there are always different plans and situations.
Beyond booking the Samurai Blue’ s flight to Qatar, Mitoma’ s star turn will likely put more pressure on Moriyasu, whose player selections have been subject to frequent criticism from fans and journalists alike.
The 53-year-old, who since 2018 has coached both Japan’ s senior and Olympic sides, has frequently been accused of overlooking up-and-coming talent — such as Mitoma, Porto’ s Shoya Nakajima and Armenia Bliefield’ s Masaya Okugawa — while continuing to call up established names who have struggled on the pitch.
In Moriyasu’ s defense, this World Cup berth arguably required far more pragmatism than it did in past years, with Japan competing against not only some of Asia’ s best countries but also the shifting circumstances of the pandemic, which has wreaked havoc on the international soccer calendar.
Two defeats in the team’ s first three games — at home to Oman and away against Saudi Arabia, sandwiching an uninspiring win over China on neutral ground — raised the specter of a potential third-place finish in Group B, which would have required playoffs against Group A’ s third-place team and a South American side in order to reach Qatar.
But a dramatic 2-1 win over the Socceroos last October in Saitama spurred a six-game winning streak including Thursday’ s clincher, turning Tuesday’ s finale against Vietnam into what will be a night of celebration.
“ It all goes back to that Oman game, ” Japan captain Maya Yoshida reflected. “ If we hadn’ t stumbled there, we wouldn’ t have been forced into a corner even if we had lost to Saudi Arabia.
“ In order to escape that situation we had to fight our way back into the group. ”
For Moriyasu, a former midfielder who was on the pitch for the 1993 qualifying draw against Iraq that cost Japan a spot at the 1994 World Cup, Thursday’ s win was surely its own form of redemption — even if he preferred not to discuss that experience in the locker room.
Japan’ s head coach Hajime Moriyasu ( center) celebrates with fans after defeating Australia in the Group B of Asia 2022 World Cup qualifying match in Sydney on Thursday. | KYODO
“ We thought we could make our dreams come true if we just defended, and it was then that Iraq scored against us, ” Moriyasu said of the infamous game now known as the “ Agony of Doha. ”
“ The World Cup is something you have to earn, not something your opponent is going to give you, ” he said he told his squad before the game.
“ The players have to make lots of difficult decisions, but if there was a choice between a proactive decision and a passive decision, I wanted the players to be proactive. ”
With less than eight months remaining until the Nov. 21 kickoff in Qatar, Moriyasu’ s willingness to follow his own advice will be tested like never before. Japan’ s player pool is deeper than ever at nearly every position — with over 60 players on the books of top-division clubs in Europe — and the Japan Football Association will have no excuses if it fails to assemble a 23-man squad capable of getting past the Round of 16 and into the quarterfinals.
The players — especially those who have stepped onto the pitch as the FIFA anthem plays around them — are also well aware of the new pressure that will soon fall on them now that the previous pressure of qualification has been lifted.
“ I’ m glad we’ ve completed our assignment and qualified … but now preparations for Qatar will start from the beginning, ” said Yoshida, who participated in the 2014 and 2018 World Cups.
“ If you look at the past, the players who took part in qualifying and those who played in the main tournament have been different. The competition for each position starts again from here. ” | tech |
Coronavirus rules are swiftly falling away in Asia, with a big caveat | MANILA, Philippines – In the Philippines, tens of thousands of people are crowding into political rallies in Manila, and the zoo there is packed. In India, millions fanned out last weekend to celebrate a Hindu festival. And in South Korea, 15,000 fans descended on a stadium in Seoul for three nights to see K-pop band BTS perform for the first time since October 2019.
Many Asian-Pacific countries are dismantling thickets of COVID-19 rules at bewildering speeds, even though the omicron variant of the coronavirus is still raging in parts of the region. The moves are driven by a mix of medical advice, economic pressures and the sentiment of a pandemic-weary public that enough is enough.
“ God knows we need this break, ” said Shelly Bacallia, 29, who took her son to the Manila Zoo over the weekend, a reward of sorts for surviving a series of punishing COVID-19 lockdowns. “ We’ ve been cooped up for the past two years. ”
There is at least one major caveat to the trend: Mainland China, which has generally adhered to its “ COVID zero ” approach, sticking with the snap lockdowns and strict border controls it has employed since early 2020. The state-controlled media emphasizes that the country of 1.4 billion people has by far the best record of controlling the virus. It plays up the pandemic death and illness toll of other countries while pointing to China’ s low numbers as a sign of the superiority of the country’ s system.
But experts have questioned the wisdom of that approach as the country has grappled with its largest outbreak since the pandemic began in Wuhan, factories have suspended work and truck traffic has been delayed — snarling frayed supply chains.
“ China’ s zero-COVID policy will increasingly leave it — and Hong Kong, to the extent that it follows — isolated, ” said Victor Ramraj, a law professor who edited a recent collection of articles about COVID-19-era legal policy in the region and teaches at the University of Victoria in Canada.
Hong Kong, a Chinese territory whose COVID-19 policies once mirrored those on the mainland, diverged this week in its strategy, which has exacted a huge cost. With its previously tight border controls, the territory had cut itself off from the outside world, crushing an economy reliant on international trade.
On Monday, Hong Kong’ s leader, Carrie Lam, announced a reversal of its ban on flights from nine countries and signaled plans to further relax COVID-19 rules. But the changes came even as the territory was experiencing a huge outbreak, with the city’ s COVID-19 fatality rate currently among the world’ s highest, at 3 per 100,000 residents. Bodies are piling up next to COVID-19 patients in hospitals and mortuaries are filling up quickly.
But almost everywhere else in Asia, virus rules have been in steady retreat, the pace dictated by epidemiology, economic imperatives or political pressures.
In India, where enormous COVID-19 outbreaks once killed hundreds of thousands, restrictions there have largely vanished in recent weeks, except for a requirement to wear masks. Last weekend, millions of people celebrated Holi, a Hindu springtime festival in which people throw colored powder at one another.
S. Sivaraman, 68, an advertising executive in the capital, New Delhi, went to a Holi party in a park with his family and about 100 neighbors. As people ran around dousing one another with powder, he said, the traumas of the pandemic were briefly forgotten.
“ We felt so happy to be out of a cage, ” he said, “ meeting people freely and hugging each other. ”
Thailand has been gradually relaxing entry requirements for foreign tourists in recent months. In Indonesia, Bali — an essential driver of the country’ s tourism sector — has reopened at a faster pace than the rest of the country; it was among the first provinces to drop quarantine for foreign travelers.
There has been some concern that Indonesia’ s central government could put in place new restrictions during the Ramadan holiday that begins in April. But Theresia Elena, the general manager of the Dash Hotel Seminyak on Bali, said she wasn’ t worried.
“ That won’ t happen, ” she said. “ This is Bali. We’ ve been given sweet promises. ”
New Zealand’ s initial caution toward the virus became politically untenable this year, after business groups called for fewer restrictions and citizens living overseas protested limits on their return. The country now plans to welcome back foreign tourists in April, months ahead of schedule, in a bid to bolster its economic recovery. Starting April 4, vaccine passes will no longer be required to enter public facilities and vaccine mandates will be dropped for education, health, police and defense workers, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Wednesday.
The South Korean government said this month that it would relax several antivirus measures under similar pressure from businesses. The departing president, Moon Jae-in, eased the rules in the midst of an election campaign in which the governing party’ s candidate had been trying to court votes from long-suffering small-business owners with pledges to unwind pandemic rules, including nightly curfews and limits on the number of people allowed to gather publicly.
Jacob Lee, an infectious-disease specialist at Hallym University in South Korea, criticized the change, saying that it had been, above all, “ clearly a political decision. ”
“ Scaling up social distancing would have been the correct and scientific thing to do, ” he said. “ But South Korea took the nonsensical step of preemptively easing distancing. ”
Japan, which has maintained some of the tightest entry barriers, is also considering removing quarantine requirements for foreign businesspeople and students. More Southeast Asian countries are admitting tourists, including Singapore, Cambodia and Vietnam, though travelers have been frustrated with unclear guidelines on quarantines and testing.
In the Philippines, COVID-19 protocols have taken a back seat during campaign rallies for the presidential election in May. Tens of thousands of people crowded into Manila’ s Ortigas business district last weekend to see Leni Robredo, who is running to replace the departing president, Rodrigo Duterte. It was the largest public gathering in the country in two years.
A voter casts her ballot during a special voting time for COVID-19 patients at a polling station in Seoul on March 9. | WOOHAE CHO / THE NEW YORK TIMES
At the same time, masks are still required in public places, some schools are still holding classes online, and reminders about social distancing are still plastered around venues.
That includes the Manila Zoo, where Bacallia’ s 7-year-old son received a second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine at a pop-up clinic last weekend as a condition for entry. He is scared of needles and put up a fight.
“ But it is good that we can all go out now, ” she said. “ We told him, ‘ We’ re going to the zoo, but you need your shot first before you can get in.’ That helped to calm him down. ”
The question now is how long China can hold onto its zero-COVID-19 policy.
This month, officials imposed stringent restrictions on residents’ movement in two major cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen, on a day when each mega-city reported fewer than 70 new cases.
But there are signs that even China is tweaking its approach, after the country’ s leader, Xi Jinping, urged officials to limit the economic pain of the country’ s COVID-19 response.
Ryan Liu, 33, who works at an internet company in Shenzhen and has barely left home this month, said he was happy to make a sacrifice for the greater good.
“ In our view, or in the view of most of us, we prefer this kind of strict control measures, ” he said. “ We must take some measures, and we can’ t let it go. ” | tech |
China battling ‘ severe and complex’ Covid-19 outbreak | China is battle its worst Covid-19 outbreak, driven by the Omicron variant, with health officials calling the situation “ severe and complex ”.
The country has counted more than 56,000 cases since March 1, according to national health officials who gave a press briefing on Friday.
More than half of those cases have been recorded in north-eastern Jilin province and include asymptomatic cases as well. The numbers do not include Hong Kong, which tracks its Covid-19 data separately.
China continues striving to “ achieve dynamic zero-Covid in the short term, as it is still the most economical and most effective prevention strategy against Covid-19, ” said Wu Zunyou, an infectious disease expert at China’ s Centre for Disease Control.
“ Only by doing dynamic zero-Covid can we eliminate the hidden dangers of the epidemic, avoid the run on medical resources that may be caused by large-scale infections and prevent a large number of possible deaths of the elderly or those with underlying diseases, ” Mr Wu added.
The “ zero-Covid ” strategy relies on lockdowns and mass testing, with close contacts often being quarantined at home or in a central government facility.
The strategy focuses on eradicating community transmission of the virus as quickly as possible, sometimes by locking down entire cities.
Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged the toll of the stringent measures, saying China should seek “ maximum effect ” with “ minimum cost ” in controlling the virus. Since then, officials have emphasised that they will ensure their approach and restrictions are targeted.
For example, authorities adjusted mass testing measures so they do not involve entire cities and are targeted instead at specific neighbourhoods or areas, in line with where the virus turns up, Jiao Yahui, a senior official with the National Health Commission, said. | general |
Amazon fired and disparaged him. Then he started a labor union. | When a retail union targeted an Amazon.com Inc. warehouse in Alabama last year, organizers generally avoided provocation, holding rallies far from the facility and urging placard-carrying activists to stay off the company’ s property.
Christian Smalls, an upstart labor leader hoping to unionize Amazon facilities in Staten Island, New York, has tossed that playbook. Over the past couple of years, Smalls has tweeted photos of Amazon consultants he deemed “ union busters ” and encouraged supporters to disrupt anti-union meetings inside the gigantic JFK8 warehouse. Meanwhile, he staked out the Amazon parking lot, handing out union literature, playing loud rap music and buttonholing workers as they came and went.
Time and again, Amazon says, it warned Smalls he was trespassing. Finally, on the afternoon of Feb. 23, the company called the police, and Smalls was arrested and charged with trespassing, resisting arrest and obstructing governmental administration. ( Smalls says a judge adjourned the case for six months and will dismiss the charges so long as he isn’ t charged with a crime during that time.)
One can argue with his methods — and some do — but it’ s hard to deny Smalls’ achievement. In mid-February and early March, his fledgling Amazon Labor Union won two important victories: approval from federal labor officials to hold a union election at one warehouse and sufficient worker support to hold a vote at a second facility nearby. The first election is scheduled to commence on Friday and run through March 30, while the second vote is set for April 25 through April 29. If successful, Smalls will have created not just the first union to breach Amazon’ s U.S. warehouses, but perhaps cemented his position as the face of a new labor movement.
In Amazon, Smalls confronts a deep-pocketed foe that handily defeated the efforts to unionize the Alabama warehouse last year. The novice labor organizer has made rookie mistakes, including failing to gather enough employee signatures in his first attempt to force an election at the JFK8 warehouse. But he and his allies have come this far with little support from organized labor. “ I know I’ m a misfit, there’ s no shame in my game, ” Smalls says. “ I say what I say and that’ s what got me here. The same thing with the union: It represents what the workers want to say. ”
In an emailed statement, Amazon spokeswoman Kelly Nantel said: “ Our employees have the choice of whether or not to join a union. They always have. As a company, we don’ t think unions are the best answer for our employees. Our focus remains on working directly with our team to continue making Amazon a great place to work. ”
Smalls, 33, grew up in Hackensack, New Jersey, playing basketball, football and running track at Hackensack High School. He had a short stint as an independent rapper ( one of his songs can be found on Amazon, though it can’ t be played or purchased) but abandoned these aspirations after having kids, a twin boy and girl now age 9. From 2012 to 2015, Smalls worked various jobs in New Jersey, including stints at Walmart, Home Depot, a grocery warehouse distributor and MetLife Stadium. He toiled at Amazon warehouses for a couple of years, then in 2018 went to work at the then-new JFK8 fulfillment center in Staten Island, where he supervised employees picking items.
When the pandemic struck in 2020, Smalls and thousands of his colleagues became so-called essential workers, who were expected to pick, pack and ship products to home-bound customers. It was a scary time because no one knew if COVID-19 was circulating in the warehouse, and Amazon was then providing little guidance. “ It was business as usual, ” Smalls said last year. “ We weren’ t socially distanced. We were sitting in the cafeteria shoulder to shoulder, you know, eating lunch. ”
After workers began calling in sick and showing up with symptoms, Smalls and colleague Derrick Palmer organized a walkout. Not long after, Amazon told Smalls to stay home because he had possibly been in contact with an infected colleague. Smalls showed up for a rally and was fired, prompting him to file a lawsuit alleging racial bias in Amazon’ s COVID-19 safety protocols. ( A judge dismissed the case in February.)
As tensions rose in Staten Island, senior Amazon executives discussed the situation on a call. In a leaked transcript of the meeting published by Vice, General Counsel David Zapolsky suggested focusing attention on Smalls, who is Black, because he “ wasn’ t smart or articulate. ” Critics decried the comments as racist. Zapolsky later apologized and denied that his remarks were racially motivated.
The incident was a galvanizing moment for Smalls. “ Ironically they said to make me the face of the whole unionizing efforts against Amazon, ” he said last year. “ And from that moment forward, that’ s when I really started to really get involved in organizing. And now I’ m trying to make them kind of eat those words. ”
With COVID-19 spreading across the U.S., Smalls started the Congress of Essential Workers, which mostly traveled around the country protesting Amazon and founder Jeff Bezos. Smalls and his associates weren’ t above pulling stunts of questionable taste, once deploying a mock guillotine outside Bezos’ Washington mansion. These antics alienated some activists, who believed Smalls was just seeking attention. “ You have to be more strategic, ” says Adrienne Williams, a former Amazon delivery driver and member of the Congress of Essential Workers. “ He wanted the publicity that came with that fake protesting. ” Smalls denies that.
Williams and other members of the group also signed a public letter criticizing Smalls for failing to set up a nonprofit and for using money raised on a personal GoFundMe page for his advocacy. Williams says she felt Smalls was blurring the lines between his activism and his own needs. An attorney for Smalls sent the signees a cease-and-desist letter after the missive spread online. “ The money I raised, people donated to me personally, ” Smalls says. “ What I did with that money is what I did with it. ”
Started in April 2021, the Amazon Labor Union targeted four facilities that, according to the company, employ about 10,000 workers. Attempting to sell the benefits of union membership to that many people is a daunting task; last year, according to the National Labor Relations Board, bargaining units comprised about 60 people on average.
Smalls argues that his union has a better shot at winning the election than more established players like the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which lost in Alabama and is currently contesting a do-over vote there that ends March 28. He notes that New York is a union town, unlike Bessemer. New York State has the second highest union membership in the country, with 22.2% of workers belonging to a union, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But most of them work in the public sector.
Smalls has projected a fun-loving, we’ re-just-like-you vibe to win over workers-dancing, joking around and snapping selfies while collecting signatures. He wanted to avoid what he views as mistakes made in Bessemer, where the union touted support from politicians and celebrities. “ Amazon definitely attacked that aspect of it, ” he says. “ The campaign lost touch with their workers. ” Celebrity sightings in New York have been rare: In mid-March activist-actor Susan Sarandon dropped by an ALU phone-canvassing event.
While organized labor can draw on union dues to help finance campaigns such as the one in Bessemer, Smalls says he has mostly relied on GoFundMe to fund the ALU’ s activities-raising more than $ 100,000 since April 2021. Early on in the campaign, Smalls also accepted legal assistance and help collecting signatures from the local chapter of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union. Smalls says the union is still paying the fees for an ALU attorney. He doesn’ t take a salary, and says he has relied on money raised on his GoFundMe page along with financial support from family and friends.
A Teamster speaks during a February union rally in Alabama. | BLOOMBERG
The Staten Island saga has made Smalls into something of a media darling and earned him qualified praise from RWDSU President Stuart Appelbaum, who said in an interview: “ I’ ll give him credit for taking advantage of the moment and the groundwork that was laid by the Bessemer campaign. I want him and everyone else organizing Amazon workers to be successful. ” John Logan, the department chair of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University, says the ALU’ s independence prevented Amazon from defining itself as a job creator standing up to Big Labor. “ I hate the word optics, ” he says. “ But the optics are kind of ‘ Amazon the corporate bully trying to crush the little guy who’ s on the side of the workers.’ ” Calling the police on Smalls, he adds, risked backfiring.
The ALU and Amazon have been competing aggressively to win hearts and minds on the warehouse floor. As in Alabama, the company holds “ information sessions, ” during which managers and labor consultants try to persuade workers that a union wouldn’ t necessarily improve their wages and benefits. In early February, workers belonging to the ALU disrupted one of these meetings by challenging management’ s talking points, stalling the presentation. In response, according to a video reviewed by Bloomberg, a manager at the JFK8 facility told workers not scheduled to attend that they could be dinged for “ insubordination. ” The meeting was canceled.
Gauging the strength of ALU support isn’ t easy. Unions need only collect signatures from 30% of workers to force an election, meaning the rest of the workforce could be pro- or anti-union. “ A lot of people are on the fence, ” says one worker, who plans to vote in favor of unionizing. “ One girl said no because she said Chris doesn’ t have the experience and she doesn’ t need anyone being her voice. Me? I can’ t speak up for myself. ” The election in Bessemer was instructive. Despite months of campaigning and support from leading politicians including President Joe Biden, the union lost by a 2 to 1 margin and may lose the second election, as well.
Smalls has refrained from setting out a detailed agenda should the ALU win but says he has surveyed workers to assess their priorities. Among them: bringing back monthly productivity bonuses the company eliminated in 2018, giving hourly workers Amazon stock and raising pay to $ 30 an hour compared with the current average starting wage of $ 18 an hour. “ If we lose, it’ s not the end of the ALU, it’ s really the beginning, ” Smalls says. “ We have a couple of chances here. We’ re hoping that we’ ll be successful the first time around. ” | tech |
Drugmakers and scientists begin the hunt for long COVID treatments | After producing vaccines and treatments for acute COVID-19 in record time, researchers and drugmakers are turning to finding a cure for long COVID-19, a more elusive target marked by hundreds of different symptoms afflicting millions of people.
Leading drugmakers, including those who have launched antiviral pills and monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19, are having early discussions with researchers about how to target the disease, five scientists in the United States and the U.K said.
Companies including GlaxoSmithKline, Vir Biotechnology and Humanigen confirmed they had spoken to researchers on trials using their current treatments against long COVID-19. Others including Pfizer and Roche said they are interested but would not elaborate on plans.
Researchers, biotech companies and public health experts say major pharmaceutical companies are integral to getting a proven treatment for the disease, which currently afflicts more than 100 million people, according to the World Health Organization.
“ When you look at the numbers for heart failure, for diabetes, etc., that is the ballpark we are talking about, ” said Amitava Banerjee, a leading researcher on a long COVID-19 trial.
Long COVID-19, with some 200 reported afflictions that include fatigue, chest pain and brain fog, is defined by symptoms that last longer than three months. It sidelines people who have had both mild and severe COVID-19, including children. In the United States, it is estimated to have affected 1-in-7 working age adults.
Sandi Zack, 53, a former elementary school teacher from the Atlanta area who can no longer work, described symptoms including extreme fatigue, dizziness, pain and heart palpitations since contracting COVID-19 in December 2020.
Researchers, biotech companies and public health experts say major pharmaceutical companies are integral to getting a proven treatment for long COVID-19, which currently afflicts more than 100 million people, according to the World Health Organization. | REUTERS
She has sought help from a range of specialists and tried a variety of drugs to ease her symptoms including steroids and the antidepressant fluvoxamine.
There are fewer than 20 clinical trials under way testing drugs, a handful of which have moved beyond early stages, according to interviews with more than a dozen independent and government-backed scientists and a Reuters review of a global clinical trials database.
Scientists hope their research will uncover the causes of long COVID-19, a major hurdle in finding targets for new drugs or identifying existing medicines that may work as treatments.
“ We are getting to the stage where we are getting traction, and for people suffering, we are getting treatments tested, ” said David Strain, a University of Exeter Medical School lecturer whose research has informed which treatments will be tested in a major British trial. “ Hopefully we will have things we can we offer them to get their lives back to normal in the near future. ”
Big pharmaceutical companies are looking for disease-specific biomarkers that would allow them to assess the value of tested medicines, experts say.
“ What they’ re struggling with is a case definition for long COVID, ” said Dr. Amy Proal, an expert in post-viral diseases at the PolyBio Research Foundation in Mercer Island, Washington. She said she has held confidential meetings with two venture capital groups and one major pharmaceutical company.
Possible underlying causes researchers are studying include damage from the original infection, lingering reservoirs of virus in the body, an autoimmune response, in which the immune system attacks its own cells, and a dysregulated immune response causing excess inflammation that damages small blood vessels or nerves. It could be a combination of those or other factors, they say.
One major U.K.-funded trial led by University College, London, will test four drugs among 4,500 long COVID-19 patients.
They include antihistamines loratadine and famotidine, the gout and heart inflammation treatment colchichine — all available as generics — and Johnson & Johnson’ s blood clot preventer Xarelto ( rivaroxaban).
All have data from preliminary studies in people suggesting they could work against some of the possible disease targets for long COVID-19, such as inflammation and blood clots.
Moderna is donating its vaccine for early trials in the U.K. testing whether it can help kickstart the immune system and ease long COVID-19 symptoms, the company said in an emailed statement. | REUTERS
Banerjee, lead researcher on that trial, said the drugs will target several potential underlying mechanisms of long COVID-19 while seeking to understand more about them.
“ It’ s challenging, because we’ re going for a hazy target, ” he said in a phone interview. “ People on the industry side are trying to figure it out too. ”
U.S-based Axcella Therapeutics is working with the University of Oxford on a drug developed for nonalcoholic steathohepatitis ( NASH), a liver disease marked by dysregulated metabolism, inflammation and scarring.
In long COVID-19, the hope is the drug will restore the normal function of mitochondria — the energy factories of cells. Poorly functioning mitochondria may explain the crushing long-term fatigue so many patients experience.
As lead researcher Dr. Betty Raman put it, if COVID-19 damaged the battery, the drug aims to restore that battery, so cells can perform their normal functions without using up too much energy.
PureTech Health, another U.S. biotech, is running a midstage trial of an experimental pulmonary fibrosis treatment aimed at preventing long-term lung scarring linked with COVID-19.
In Seattle, researchers at the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson COVID Clinical Research Center are testing Resolve Therapeutics’ experimental treatment targeting fatigue in long COVID-19 patients.
The drug works by dissolving certain RNA in the blood that has been linked with increased inflammation in patients with autoimmune diseases such as Lupus and Sjogren’ s syndrome, said Dr. James Andrews, a rheumatologist at the University of Washington who is leading the trial.
Scientists who believe the root cause of long COVID-19 could be lingering virus are keen to test whether existing COVID-19 treatments or vaccines could have an impact.
Moderna is donating its vaccine for early trials in the U.K. testing whether it can help kickstart the immune system and ease long COVID-19 symptoms, the company said in an emailed statement.
Berlin Cures Holding AG, a German biotech firm, secured only enough money for the first stage of testing of its autoimmune drug — previously used for heart failure — that has shown promise in a handful of patients when used experimentally.
“ People call us and they cry on the phone, ” Chief Operating Officer Peter Goettel said. “ Some people want to sell their house to give us donations, just to get a shot. ” | tech |
Japan keeps economic view unchanged but sounds alert over Ukraine war | The government kept its basic assessment of the country’ s economy unchanged in a monthly report released Friday, while sounding an alert over the impact of the Ukraine war.
The country’ s economy “ continues to show movements of picking up, although some weaknesses are seen ” as the COVID-19 situation remains severe, the Cabinet Office said in the March report.
The wording remained unchanged from the previous month’ s report in which the government lowered its basic economic view for the first time in five months, citing weakness in private consumption.
In the March report, the government kept intact its view on private consumption, saying that its rebound “ appears to be pausing. ”
“ Consumption of services remained weak partly due to the Japanese government’ s COVID-19 pre-emergency measures, which were fully lifted on Monday, ” a Cabinet Office official said, adding that private consumption “ did not deteriorate further. ”
Looking ahead, the March report said that the economy is “ expected to show movements of picking up. ”
At the same time, however, it warned that “ full attention ” should be paid to downside risks arising from the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
“ The impact of Russia’ s aggression in Ukraine, for example, on international commodity prices, financial markets and trade would affect the Japanese economy, ” the Cabinet Office official said.
The government upgraded its view on imports for the first time in 13 months, saying that they are almost flat. In the February report, it said that imports were in a weak tone.
The upgrade came as a recovery in production activities in China, which had been slow partly due to curbs on electricity use, pushed up Japan’ s imports from Asia, the Cabinet Office official said.
The government raised its view on corporate profits for the first time in seven months, as many companies reported robust earnings for October-December, during which the country’ s COVID-19 situation was calmer, according to the official.
The March report said a pickup in business sentiment appears to be pausing amid uncertainties over the course of the Ukraine crisis and fallout from it, revising down the assessment of the sector for the first time in 10 months.
While keeping its assessment unchanged, the government altered its wording on consumer prices, saying that they are “ rising moderately recently. ” The February report said that such prices “ show steady movements. ”
The alternation reflects rising gasoline, electricity and gas prices due to higher crude oil prices. Higher raw material prices, traced to the Ukraine crisis, are “ set to push up prices for a wide range of products in and after April, ” the official warned.
The government left unchanged its views on business investment, exports and employment. | tech |
Giants get off to winning start with victory over Dragons | Just ask new Yomiuri Giants Gregory Polanco and Taisei Ota, who both stood on the hero interview podium soaking up the adulation of over 38,000 fans after kicking off the new NPB season in style.
Polanco had three hits, including a tiebreaking single in the fifth inning, in his NPB debut, and Taisei, a rookie, pitched himself into a jam in the ninth before nailing down the save as the Giants opened the 2022 season with a 4-2 win over the Chunichi Dragons at Tokyo Dome on Friday night.
Polanco singled in his first two at-bats before putting the Giants ahead to stay with his hit to right off Yudai Ono in the fifth.
“ I feel great, ” Polanco said. “ I feel great to be here. It’ s a great feeling for me, especially on opening day. The fans and my teammates, everybody, the coaches, they received me with a lot of energy and I’ m really happy to be here. ”
Yoshihiro Maru drove in the game’ s first run with a home run in the second, but the Dragons struck back with a Yuki Okabayashi RBI single in the third and a home run from Dayan Viciedo home run in the fourth.
Taishi Hirooka, Polanco and Kazuma Okamoto drove in runs to put the Giants ahead 4-2 in the fifth. The score remained the same going into the ninth, when Ota emerged from the bullpen.
The 22-year-old rookie struck out the first batter he faced before giving up singles to Yohei Oshima and Okabayashi. Ota retired the next batter, but hit Viciedo to load the bases. He retired Takuya Kinoshita on a grounder to close out the game and become the first rookie in team history to record a save on opening day.
“ I really believed he was going to hold them down, ” starter Tomoyuki Sugano said. “ I wasn’ t totally at ease, ” he joked. “ I was kind of anxious watching it. ”
Sugano, unlike his new teammates, has been here before, with Friday’ s game marking his eighth opening day start for the club.
“ This was my eighth time, but I was probably the most nervous for this one, ” Sugano said.
The two-time Sawamura Award winner had a difficult 2021 season and was shaky during the Giants’ spring games.
“ Looking at my preseason results, there were some things I was worried about, ” Sugano said. “ I think I was able to do the minimum today and I think I got off to a good start. ”
Sugano fared slightly better than Ono in a matchup battle of former Sawamura Award winners, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits in six innings. Sugano was credited with the victory and set a new Giants record with his fifth opening day win.
“ I’ m really happy, ” he said. “ However, this isn’ t something I could achieve on my own. Even today, my teammates scored the first run for me and then came from behind. ”
The teams played in front of a large crowd, as the previous attendance restrictions in place due to COVID-19 were lifted. A crowd of 38,156 was at the Big Egg. While Japanese baseball’ s familiar songs and chants were still missing, that didn’ t dampen Polanco’ s experience.
“ The atmosphere here, it’ s amazing, ” he said. “ All the fans cheer for you and they’ re so happy and they support you. I’ m happy to be here and I want to do my best every game, every play to try to win games and win the championship. ”
Ono ( 0-1) gave up four runs — three earned — in his six innings on the mound. He allowed eight hits, struck out three and walked a pair in the losing effort.
Maru opened the scoring with his home run in the second to give the Giants an early lead.
Ono hit a two-out infield single in the top of the third and moved up two bases when Oshima hit a ball into the outfield and Polanco committed an error. Okabayashi followed with an RBI single to tie the score.
Viciedo turned an unassisted double play to end the third and gave his team the lead with an opposite-field home run to lead off the fourth.
Yomiuri’ s Naoki Yoshikawa came up with a two-out infield single, upheld after a reply review, in the fifth and came home on a game-tying RBI double by Hirooka.
Polanco hit his tiebreaking single to put Yomiuri back on top, and Okamoto tacked on another run with an RBI double that made it 4-2. | tech |
LDP's junior partner Komeito to propose economic relief package | The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's junior coalition partner Komeito will call on Monday for emergency measures to cushion people against the economic blow from rising prices of energy and food, the party's leader, Natsuo Yamaguchi, said on Friday.
The proposal will include a call to expand and extend the duration of a gasoline subsidy for oil distributors, as well as other steps to ease the pain on companies and households hit by soaring raw material costs, he said.
While the government can tap some of the ¥5.5 trillion ( $ 45 billion) in reserves set aside under the fiscal 2022 budget, it needs to be ready to top up funding to deal with what could be Japan's `` worst postwar crisis, '' Yamaguchi said.
`` In the proposal, we 'll urge the government to look into compiling an extra budget '' to fund the spending, he said in an interview.
`` As we focus on how best to protect people's livelihood, an extra budget should be on the table, '' Yamaguchi said, when asked whether the government should pass an extra budget through the current parliament session ending in June.
The proposal by Komeito, the coalition partner of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's LDP, will likely be incorporated into the government's relief package expected to be compiled next month.
Soaring energy and commodity prices, blamed partly on the war in Ukraine, is clouding the outlook for Japan's economy that is only just recovering from the coronavirus pandemic's wounds.
Some analysts say the yen's recent declines could inflict more damage to the economy by inflating the cost of imports.
Yamaguchi, however, said Japan `` doesn't need to worry too much '' about the weak yen as an imminent threat to the economy.
On monetary policy, Yamaguchi urged the Bank of Japan to maintain its massive stimulus program `` for a bit longer '' to ensure a solid recovery in the economy.
`` The current cost-push inflation isn't a very good thing for the economy, '' he said. `` Responding to this with an interest rate hike could weaken Japan's economic strength. '' | tech |
Traveling the world to make a global impact | For decades, MIT students have traveled abroad over Independent Activities Period ( IAP) or in the summer for enriching global experiences through MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives ( MISTI). This year, dozens of students became MISTI’ s first IAP travelers abroad since the start of the pandemic.
“ We got very good at being spontaneous and rolling with the punches, ” says MIT-Israel student Marilyn Meyers. “ I knew that given the rising cases of the new Covid variant that things in Israel would be a bit chaotic and that I would have to be prepared to go with the flow. I decided to take a chance and go... because I had a feeling that it would still be a transformative experience. I was right about that. ”
MISTI students are extensively prepped before they take their trips abroad, with program managers advising on logistics such as visas and foreign bank accounts and training students on regional workplace culture and travel safety. While the pandemic added some additional elements to the process, a solid infrastructure was already in place to support them.
“ Safely sending students abroad has always been our top priority, even prior to Covid, ” says Griselda Gomez, MISTI’ s assistant director of health and safety. “ That constant commitment is what has made it possible for us confidently navigate the pandemic and reopen programs. ”
The Global Teaching Labs ( GTL) program is one of MISTI’ s most in-demand opportunities, where MIT students teach STEM courses in high schools and universities abroad. On top of the standard preparation, GTL students are trained about teaching materials, platforms, and communication techniques, as well as introduced to the host country's education system and culture. Thirty-seven students took part in GTL this year, sharing the MIT style of education and unique approach to problem-solving around the world.
“ GTL Israel was really an incredible experience, ” gushes Meyers. “ One of the highlights of my experience was playing English games with the students. Seeing the [ students ] push themselves to use the English that they knew and to learn more English words despite making mistakes [ made it ] a really special event. ”
Yuka Machino and Holden Mui went to Ghana with the MIT-Africa GTL program to work on a unique mathematics project. “ The mission for our MISTI program was two-fold. One of our goals was to train their nation’ s top mathematics students in preparation for the International Math Olympiad. The second goal was to inspire students from Ghana’ s top public schools to prepare for and participate in mathematics competitions, ” says Mui. “ It was exhilarating to watch the students reach their ‘ aha!’ moments when working through problems. ”
Machino agrees that interacting with the students was the highlight of the trip. “ They were all very engaged and interested, and I felt a lot of satisfaction in being able to share the kind of math that I found most fun and beautiful. ”
Students also gained valuable experience to bolster their academic and professional careers. “ This MISTI program definitely helped me improve my ability to explain complex concepts in a simple way. Though I’ m not sure what my career will be, this ability will be helpful in almost any career, from working with others in the workplace to one in academia, ” says Mui.
“ Compared to my life during the semester, it was a very different and enriching experience for me to work with other people on a project like this, ” adds Machino. “ I 'm really thankful for MIT for this opportunity and for our host for making it such an enjoyable and exciting experience. ”
There are more student opportunities like this on the way. Now that the students have returned to campus, planning at MISTI is already full steam ahead for the next group of students. Says Gomez, `` We anticipate having even more countries open this summer, and we are positive that our staff and students will be ready. ''
MISTI is MIT’ s hub for global experiences, providing immersive international programs that bring MIT’ s one-of-a-kind learning model to life in countries around the world. MISTI empowers students to build cultural connections, make an impact in the world, and gain valuable perspectives that inform their education, career, and worldview. | business |
Banks tout CCAR-style stress tests for emergent risks | Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
According to a survey conducted by Accenture, 77% of risk leaders believe that complex, interconnected new risks are emerging at a more rapid pace than ever before. Most risk leaders are satisfiedâ¦
Todayâs financial crime threats are dynamic and fast-moving. Financial criminals continue to up their game and itâs critical for firms to move even faster than the speed of crime. With many regulaâ¦
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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Edited by Bill Coen and D. R. Maurice
War in Europe, a global pandemic, ‘ one-in-a-million’ weather disasters: the occurrence of events that were once assigned a near-zero probability has prompted bank risk managers to incorporate extreme scenarios into their internal stress tests.
Major US banks are already subject to the CCAR capital planning regime, which tests firms against a range of scenarios. Financial institutions also run internal risk management exercises, known as risk and control self assessment, or RCSA, which help
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Berkshire Hathaway outruns index puts it sold pre-GFC | Wire payment fraud is a major growing risk for financial institutions in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These cases of fraud donât just hurt finâ¦
Asia Risk is proud to present Asia Risk Live, a face-to-face event in Hong Kong and Singapore. An opportunity to reconnect in person to learn and exchange new ideas.
According to a survey conducted by Accenture, 77% of risk leaders believe that complex, interconnected new risks are emerging at a more rapid pace than ever before. Most risk leaders are satisfiedâ¦
Todayâs financial crime threats are dynamic and fast-moving. Financial criminals continue to up their game and itâs critical for firms to move even faster than the speed of crime. With many regulaâ¦
View our latest in market leading training courses, both public and in-house.
The Energy Risk Awards recognise the leading firms in energy risk management. Corporates, financial players, technology and data firms, consultancies, brokers and exchanges are all welcome to submit â¦
The Asia Risk Awards recognize best practices in risk management and derivatives use by banks and financial institutions around the region.
Take a look at the wide variety of events and training on offer.
This eBook is based on the 2021 industry research by Acuiti, as well as the FIS Readiness Report. Youâll find plenty of support for a move to AI-powered cloud computing, a modular approach that ensurâ¦
Maximising value from better risk management and deal efficiency This Risk.net survey and white paper, commissioned by SS & C Intralinks, assesses the outlook for the CMBS market in the US and Europe, â¦
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Edited by Bill Coen and D. R. Maurice
Berkshire Hathaway’ s point-in-time liability from a series of equity puts it sold before the global financial crisis dropped to zero in the fourth quarter of 2021, bringing the company one step closer to winning its decade-and-a-half long bet.
Between 2004 and 2008, Warren Buffett’ s company sold European-style puts, which can only be exercised on expiry, on four major equity indexes – the S & P 500, the FTSE 100, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Nikkei 225 – for $ 4.9 billion in upfront premiums.
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Exclusive Interview with Chitra Ravi, Founder and CEO of Chrysalis | Join Our Telegram Channel for More Insights. Join
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EdTech is transforming the traditional processes of learning and teaching through digital learning, courses, and libraries. The global EdTech market is expected to hit US $ 605.40 billion in 2027 at a CAGR of 15.52%. The emergence of the pandemic has helped to accelerate the adoption of EdTech in the country through smartphones and smooth internet connections.
Here is an exclusive interview with Chitra Ravi, Founder, and CEO of Chrysalis, who explained the need for this EdTech to transform conventional teaching processes with its products like ThinkRoom and Chrysalis Studios.
Chrysalis is a transformation and growth partner for K-12 schools in India. Starting in 2001, Chrysalis has been a thought leader in this space. Chrysalis with its flagship product ThinkRoom, a new age blended learning programme for schools, has been redefining the teaching-learning process in the foundational years.
Typically, schools use textbooks that are nothing but a ‘ repository of content’ produced by so-called experts. Teacher ‘ TEACH’ from textbooks, students ‘ memorize’ from those textbooks, and reproduce in exams. Parents and schools tend to celebrate the success of academic achievements. It is a sad truth that education has been reduced to mere cognitive gobbling of information.
Chrysalis has been refocusing education stakeholders to start looking at the learning outcomes and the teaching process more holistically. In a ThinkRoom, students are not given ‘ textbooks’ but, are given ‘ studios’ which are way more advanced in pedagogy than regular textbooks. They are skill-building, value-based, and holistic learning materials that don’ t just help students master the concepts in English, Science, Social, Mathematics, and ICT, but also build values and nurture holistic thinking skills in students. Along with the curriculum, ThinkRoom also empowers teachers professionally, supports schools to set up systems, and processes to create a conducive learning environment for students, teachers, and parents.
Other than the ThinkRoom programme, Chrysalis has also been a partner for various corporates in their CSR activities. Chrysalis is the only private education organization in India with a wide range of CSR partnerships with corporates like DELL, Microsoft, NOKIA, WIPRO, and so on.
Chitra Ravi, Founder and CEO of Chrysalis, happened to see her two daughters going to school sad, but coming back home with joy: “ Why are schools not a place of joyful learning? ” She also happened to see mediocre textbooks that only provided information and didn’ t encourage children to think holistically. On top of it, textbooks conditioned children in many ways limiting their thinking. She didn’ t want to be a passive critique of the system. She vowed to change the system that would morph kids into mindless robots. That was 20 years ago.
The ‘ system overhaul’ wasn’ t going to be easy. But she had a Master’ s degree in English, an MBA, and brimming zeal. She had seen her children’ s less-than-happy experience in school. Yes, she would equip herself to promote a form of education that would let children ‘ blossom.’ Bidding goodbye to her family business, she gathered a small education-passionate group and floated Chrysalis ( EZ Vidya Pvt Ltd.).
Chitra’ s premise: Education today does not encourage children to think. It’ s not nerdy or uncool to think! “ Happy thinking ” is possible and through it, children will learn to ‘ look deep’ for critical/analytical thinking, ‘ look beyond’ for creative ideas, ‘ look around’ for social/environmental happenings ( transportation, photo-synthesis), and ‘ look within’ to reflect. Children should ask: “ Why am I learning this? What is the significance? ” to find answers.
“ I don’ t tell teachers what to do, ” she says. “ I ask questions, get them to think. ” Is the education system showing the children the soul of the subject like Chemistry? “ Education must combine cognitive and affective aspects of learning, ” Chitra mentions. “ It must aid self-discovery. The process can be triggered through lessons in class. ” Children should learn to be emotionally safe. Chrysalis, through its flagship product ThinkRoom, has its unique curriculum that replaces the regular textbooks with Chrysalis Studios, unique and innovative learning material for students. Studios let students discover their unique talents and not fit them into a pre-determined framework. The package for schools includes curriculum, teacher training, AI and machine learning-powered technology platform, and growing partnership.
Chrysalis textbooks are designed to create a 21st-century learning environment. These aim to build skills essential for ‘ living well.’ It’ s an LKG-Class 5 curriculum prepared in-house. ”
Feedback has been good, Chitra acknowledged that schools have told children they thought dull were the most participative with the company materials. With Chrysalis, there’ s no need for persuasion. The books and materials cater to the multiple intelligences of the children, allowing space for expression. It’ s time for dull textbooks to move over.
Chitra and her 250-strong staff see Chrysalis as a movement. Each staff feels like a contributing member. They meet students and teachers, get parents to participate actively, and train teachers to listen sharply. The team constantly innovates, re-visits goals, as well as remains dynamic and robust by looking at the heart of education. In the middle of all this, Chitra tweets actively visit schools across India and abroad, and attends national/international educational forums. She miraculously manages time for family, reading, music, and friends.
It is a long haul, but Chitra is optimistic. Chrysalis has impacted over 1800 schools across India and partners several organizations including Wipro, Nokia, Dell, IBM, American India Foundation, and the Azim Premji Foundation, in their educational initiatives. Recently, the company won the BridgeIT Award.
KidsLoop is a global EdTech platform with a powerhouse of features for schools and education service providers. With its AI and machine learning capabilities, KidsLoop is the fastest emerging EdTech platform globally.
Data and analytics help one to stay on top of a school’ s operations. Reports keep one informed of teachers’ performances and the effectiveness of their lesson plans, as well as provide insight on what types of class activities get the most user engagement.
Also, with the COVID-19 pandemic changing the education dynamics, KidsLoop has flexible delivery options including live, in-class, and homework that allows education providers to choose their preferred method of instruction. Whether one is in a traditional classroom, strictly remote, or a bit of both, the KidsLoop platform has what they need.
Schools can also find fun and engaging content to supplement their curriculum. Badanamu ESL and STEAM program is suitable for ages 3-8. Schools can also search the content marketplace to find a wider variety of activities and lesson plans from internationally recognized publishers.
Going one step ahead, schools can completely take control of the platform and digitize their own curriculum. Easy-to-use tools help schools to take their physical curricula into the digital space. Schools use the game-engine templates to make their digital activities interactive and attach learning outcomes and milestones for easy assessment and reporting.
Chitra states a list of how the company is reaping the benefits of advanced technologies to provide a satisfactory service to clients. It helps to align a school’ s curriculum to the international standard while machine-learning algorithms track students as they reach learning milestones and deliver reports on their progress to teachers and parents. Adaptive learning helps schools maximize their educational delivery by identifying individual students’ strengths and weaknesses, letting them know what types of content are best suited to each learner’ s needs, and automating feedback creation and nudges. Easy-to-use tools help schools to take their physical curricula into the digital space while using H5P templates schools digitize activities and make them more interactive thereby improving the engagement, t and improving the learning outcomes. Badanamu ESL and STEAM content make learning more engaging for students.
Internet connectivity in classrooms is still a challenge. While pandemic has majorly made schools adapt to technology faster and internet connectivity in classrooms in the majority of the schools is still a challenge. More and more parents have moved to smartphones and internet data is available at affordable costs. So, schools prefer supplementary learning tools for students at home where they can master the concepts. However, this also creates disparity among students due to students’ economic backgrounds and access to technology. Unlike developed countries, teachers do not carry laptops and they still prefer smartphones. However, teachers are not allowed to carry smartphones inside a classroom. Hence, a school is forced to invest in some classroom technology for enabling in-class technology. This increases the infrastructure investments by schools significantly, which not every school is able to afford.
Schools are moving towards integrated solution providers rather than looking for separate vendors for curriculum, ERP, LMS, etc. They are looking for a single unified vendor who can give all the tools. Parents are ready to pay more money for online tuition than for school fees. That is why school tech players ( ERP) are becoming EdTech players and EdTech players who want to work with schools are putting a SchoolTech in place. There is more focus now on the outcome and learner-centric approach with simplicity in technology. The trend of UI/UX is going to be critical because there is major competition now to capture the B2B market by big players. Curriculum players are acquiring smaller school ERP players as a key trend driving the EdTech industry.
Chrysalis is looking for a 5X growth in the coming twelve months. Currently, Chrysalis is impacting around one million students while the goal is to impact over five million students in the coming few months.
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The Rise in Cyber Crime: What is it Costing Businesses? | Join Our Telegram Channel for More Insights. Join
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The pandemic has caused more and more people to spend time on their computers. Thanks to remote work and poor security measures surrounding the hybrid office, IT and network professionals saw a sharp rise in cybercrimes that’ s unlikely to dip in the next five years.
In fact, several cybersecurity ventures predict that global cybercrime costs will rise by 15% in five years. That brings the total cost to $ 10.5 trillion by 2025, a deeply concerning number.
The following five countries are going to be lead players in the cybersecurity market and largely contribute to the $ 10.5 trillion dollar loss we expect to see in the next five years.
In 2020, the average cost to businesses affected by cybercrime amounted to $ 8.64 million. As the trend keeps rising upward, it’ s getting harder for American companies to stay on top of it. What’ s worse, the long-term effects of the economy will reduce the amount of IT talent.
However, American businesses are attempting to combat this problem by investing in their IT departments. It’ s estimated that the US cybersecurity market will reach 366.10 billion by 2028, which accounts for a 12% hike. Cisco Systems, Inc and IBM Corp. will be key contributors.
Australia reported a 13% hike in cybercrime in 2021 and an average cybercrime report occurring every 8 minutes. The Australian Cyber Security Center suspects that fear caused by COVID-19 has led to a rise in people trusting fake health services and government agencies.
The Australian government found that they were being targeted by sophisticated state-based hackers who targeted all levels of government. IT professionals who have received their Master of Cyber Security online will see an increase in jobs to account for increased threats.
The average UK enterprise will lose $ 3.88 million dollars per breach, which is a bit lower than the global average of $ 3.92 million. UK businesses are less likely to be targeted than US-based companies, but they’ re hit by ransomware and phishing attacks at nearly the same rate.
While UK businesses have claimed that their security budgets have grown in 2021, less than 35% have done a cyber risk assessment in the last 12 months. The UK cites concerns about security staff shortages and lack of cybersecurity education as a reason for high breach rates.
Little is known about the total cost of cybersecurity for Chinese businesses. However, a draft plan published by China’ s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology states that they plan to grow their cybersecurity industry and market from $ 10.2 billion to $ 38.7 billion by 2023.
However, MIT’ s draft plan has some conflicting figures. Market research predicts that China can grow its industry at a rate of 16.8% by 2023, which doesn’ t even come close to the $ 38.7 billion figure. Still, it’ s clear that China is also struggling to keep up with the increase in cybercrime.
India is doing its best to keep up with cyber security spending, but they’ re unfortunately falling behind. In 2020, cyber-attacks cost India 1.25 Lakh Cr ( $ 16.3 billion), an incredibly high number. Cybercrime is also increasing exponentially in India every day, with no real means to stop it.
Government data shows that hacks that target central government websites, IT emergency response teams, and central ministry sites are prime targets. Currently, India is hemorrhaging money due to cybercrime, and it’ s estimated that $ 435 billion more will be lost by 2025
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Detailed minimalism: designing new frames inspired by old ways | News and features about the latest developments relating to professional support from across optics. This includes updates from optical organisations such as the AOP and the GOC
Following the introduction of Charmant’ s new brand, Minamoto, last year, OT sought to find out more about the design inspirations behind the brand, built in homage to the eyewear company’ s Japanese heritage. Nicolas Berne, eyewear designer at Charmant, explains.
Nicolas Berne, eyewear designer at Charmant: When we started to work on that brand, we knew from the beginning that we wanted to create a collection which could represent our origin as a Japanese manufacturer. The Minamoto design ethos was then built around two key words which were ‘ craftmanship’ and ‘ zen.’ The craftsmanship side of this collection could be found in the highly detailed parts, from engraved end pieces and bridges to double side press temples.
Such level of detail is also visible on the kanji logo we apply on the end tip and top bar design. On top of that, we use unique and decorated rims on several of our styles to complete the legacy of ‘ craftsmanship’. On the other hand, ‘ zen’ heritage can be seen in the fact that we wanted to create a timeless product which is intended to last a long time. That’ s why we worked on a limited colour palette ( antique/gold, silver and rose gold plating) which enhances our key material of titanium. My work as a designer was to find the perfect balance between decorated handcrafted elements and a minimal eyewear design approach. I think the Minamoto design language could be described as ‘ detailed minimalism.’
NB: During several trips to Japan, I had the chance to discover the private museum in our headquarters in Sabae. A major part of the displayed collection are glasses from the early 18th to mid-20th centuries. That truly helped me to understand the essence of Japanese eyewear history. The Minamoto collection was inspired by metal engraved patterns, which are one of the symbols of Japanese craftmanship and knowhow. At the same time, Minamoto is also born from a long-lasting teamwork with my Japanese colleague, Hajime, who is as big a fan of eyewear as I am. I stopped counting how many times we had discussions about inspiration, brand philosophy, technical detail or even manufacturing processes. Thanks to him, I know that I can’ t go wrong on this collection. It’ s important to me that Minamoto remains true to the origin.
NB: Yes – we started to work on this collection at end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. This is exactly when COVID-19 started to spread around the world. At the time, it did not change fundamentally my daily work as I used to work remotely with Japan, but it made every part of the process longer. Our original idea was to launch this collection for Opti Munich 2021, but we had to wait until Silmo 2021 to introduce it properly. In a way, it has given us some extra time to fine-tune every detail, from the products to the marketing, to ensure a successful release.
NB: Our technical approach on this collection was mainly the focus on titanium, which is, if we look over the years, Charmant Group’ s key material. Therefore, it made sense to make that material the essential element of Minamoto DNA. Then, all choices we made were to enhance that material in one way or another. All styles in the collection feature integrated rim lock and custom-made hinges. Sides are completely made of beta titanium, which is an amazing material, well known for its flexibility but also for its capacity to be extremely thin. Every part of the frame is made of titanium including pads, which are available in its natural colour.
NB: We are still in the process as we speak. The only thing I can say is that we enjoyed working on it as much as we did the first collection. The global idea remains the same: we want to create long lasting products, which our final consumer will love wearing over the years. There is one concept in Japanese culture, called Ai-Chaku. This is to describe a deep emotional relationship that you can build with an object over time. It could be, for example, your favourite fountain pen or your old teddy bear. With Minamoto eyewear, we would like to develop such deep and long-term bonds between the frame and the wearer, which is the exact opposite of today’ s fast fashion.
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What are Retail CBDCs and why do banks need to be careful when introducing them? | You would be hard pressed to find a central bank that has not already rolled out, or is not currently researching, CBDCs. Central banks have responded to the success and popularity of the decentralised finance space ( DeFi), and the deployment of a digital currency is what we expect to see as a rival to cryptocurrencies in the financial space. The major problem is that jurisdictions are unsure how issuing a retail CBDC will impact the wider financial ecosystem. As showcased through its use during the Winter Olympics, China’ s digital RMB was the first digital currency to be rolled out by a major world economy. In October 2021, Nigeria became the first African country to officially launch a CBDC, the eNaira. Before China and Nigeria, in October 2020, The Central Bank of The Bahamas made a digital version of its local currency available nationwide. Furthermore, Jamaica is set to launch its Jam-Dex this year after a successful pilot. Chile and Tajikistan–among several countries–have also taken major steps in their plans for central bank digital currencies. What we are seeing here is developing countries becoming more willing to push through the issuance of a CBDC. The long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has led to nations with large percentages of unbanked citizens looking to solve this crisis through a CBDC. The Central Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are far more cautious with their approach. So much so that a House of Lords Committee in the UK has stated there is no ‘ convincing case’ for a UK CBDC. The use of banknotes – the most accessible form of money – is declining, and use of privately issued money continues to increase, with technological changes driving innovation. These developments provide the public with new ways to pay for goods and services, which support and enable the digital economy, but also present new risks. Of course, CBDCs have lots of potential benefits, such as reducing the need for central banks to print cash, and for individuals, firms and financial institutions the handling of physical money; increasing financial inclusion; preserving monetary sovereignty against new forms of private money; facilitating the distribution of subsidies and benefits; gaining a better understanding of people’ s aggregate behaviour; and making transactions traceable for taxation and crime prevention purposes. Yet they also come with their challenges. The worries with digital currencies One of the biggest challenges with CBDCs is security. Cybersecurity is one of the largest threats to the future of money, so ensuring the economy is prepared for any scenarios that might happen is of paramount importance. For financial institutions, central and commercial banks, national security is a consistent talking point particularly as there are regular reports into attacks made against critical national infrastructure and assets. If cyber criminals, or state-sponsors seized control, they could literally hold an entire country’ s economy to ransom. CBDC as a means for financial steadiness A well‑designed CBDC could have the potential to enhance financial stability by supporting a resilient payment system and enabling financial authorities to better understand agents’ aggregate behaviour. Yet, agents’ demands for CBDC would oblige banks to purchase more collateral to borrow CBDC from the central bank. This would not only reduce the availability of credit to households and firms, but also disintermediate and compress banks’ interest margins; for instance, banks would change households’ deposits for central bank lending and lending to firms for holding sovereign securities. While over time the banking system would be expected to balance out, it is likely that a rapid flow into CBDC from bank deposits could be destabilizing. However, the disintermediation could affect the availability of funds to commercial banks and to firms and households in the long run. Therefore, the design of the CBDC, amid the features of each economy, will play a key role in preserving financial stability; design features, such as caps on balances and transactional limits, could mitigate some of these effects. How will banks promote the use of their CBDC? A safe payment system is only beneficial if people use it. The people need an efficient, user‑friendly and inclusive service to be able to use it. On the other hand, if everyone adopts it and starts using it instead of their existing cards and accounts, it could disintermediate the payment system. Also, cash has certain unique characteristics that would be lost if it were to fall out of general use, including its major role in financial inclusion and users’ anonymity. In a world where cash becomes less widely used, there is no guarantee that the current private sector provision of the retail payment systems may meet the needs of all users, leaving underbanked groups of society particularly at risk. Further, as the digitisation of money increases, the redundancy granted by the availability of cash diminishes whereas the reliance on technology and critical infrastructure increases. It is undeniable that CBDCs can deliver major benefits on not only the payment network of a nation, but also the average person. Supporting a resilient and inclusive payment system in developing nations; reducing the costs related to handling physical money; avoiding the risks of new forms of private money creation; meeting future payment needs in a digital economy; and gaining a clearer understanding of people’ s aggregate behaviour, are all exciting benefits CBDCs can offer. Yet, the biggest challenge is understanding how CBDCs will affect the economic landscape of each jurisdiction when issued. Over everything else, each nation has their own unique payment network. This is very much not a ‘ one size fits all’ proposition. Using simulation technology and financial analytics can help banks to understand the short- and long-term impacts of issuing their retail CBDC. In doing so, they can mitigate risk, and analyse the subsequent changes to financial ecosystems and the interdependence between the banking infrastructures of nations. Although we are seeing a slow and cautious approach from many of the world’ s largest economies, CBDCs should be welcomed as it is internationally understood that a mistake in this context has the capabilities to bring around another GFC ( Global Financial Crash).
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Is Japan at risk of a downgrade? | SINGAPORE – Japan’ s sovereign credit rating could fall one to three notches in the coming decade if the government does not implement a credible fiscal consolidation plan.
This risk, which the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office highlighted in its recent annual consultation report on the country, underlines the challenges facing Japanese policymakers at a time of mounting global economic turmoil.
Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan was struggling to maintain fiscal discipline in order to contain its government debt, which was and remains the highest in the world as a percentage of gross domestic product ( GDP). But the government’ s strong efforts, combined with sustained economic recovery following the global financial crisis, reduced the fiscal deficit from 8.7% of GDP in 2009 to 3.1% of GDP in 2019.
As a result, Japan’ s government debt plateaued at around 230% of GDP from 2015-19, after rising continuously for about a decade. In comparison, government debt in the United States and the eurozone in 2019 stood at about 107% of GDP and 84% of GDP, respectively.
The COVID-19 pandemic stalled the government’ s debt-control efforts by forcing it to roll out massive stimulus packages in fiscal years 2020 and 2021 to mitigate the economic fallout and fund public-health measures. For 2022, which starts on April 1, the government has proposed a record initial budget of ¥107.6 trillion ( $ 892 billion), implying that the fiscal deficit will remain substantial, at about 6% of GDP.
Despite Japan’ s large public debt, the country’ s credit rating remains strong, at A or A+. This could be mainly because ratings agencies recognize the strength of Japan’ s institutions, its advanced economic development and high per capita income, exceptionally strong external position, large domestic investor base and full access to capital markets. These factors have partly mitigated Japan’ s economic weaknesses, including its high debt-to-GDP ratio, sustained fiscal deficits and limited growth prospects — although the country’ s rating outlook worsened in 2020 when the pandemic began.
To gauge Japan’ s long-term fiscal prospects and their implications for the country’ s sovereign rating, we created three scenarios — reform, baseline and adverse — with different assumptions regarding key macroeconomic and financial variables through 2030. A pivotal consideration in our scenarios is the economic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis, which may temporarily or permanently reduce Japan’ s long-term growth potential, depending on the duration of the crisis and degree of policy support.
All three scenarios project that Japan will continue to run fiscal deficits after the pandemic, mainly because of ballooning social-security expenditure. The country’ s unfavorable demographic profile has led to a steady increase in government spending to fill the growing gap between social-security benefits and contributions, and this structural mismatch will continue to weigh on public finances.
Under the baseline and adverse scenarios, government debt is projected to increase to more than 280% of GDP by 2030. But the reform scenario envisages that the debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 258% in 2021 and then decline to 236% by 2030.
Our model projects that, under the baseline scenario, Japan’ s sovereign rating will fall two notches to A- by 2024, because of slower growth momentum and rising government debt.
The reform scenario, on the other hand, suggests only a one-notch downgrade, to A, during the next decade, mainly owing to the lagged impact of debt accumulation during the pandemic.
Finally, under the adverse scenario, we forecast that much slower growth and faster debt accumulation will cause Japan’ s sovereign rating to decline by three notches, to BBB+.
That said, credit-ratings agencies may follow past practices and attach a positive bias to Japan’ s sovereign rating if the country maintains its traditional economic strengths. Moreover, if the Bank of Japan maintains its ultraloose monetary policy, even a drastic rating downgrade may not significantly increase the interest rates on Japanese government bonds. Nevertheless, sovereign downgrades could result in lower credit ratings and higher foreign-currency funding costs for Japanese private firms, as well as further reduction of foreign holdings of Japanese sovereign debt.
Our rating analysis highlights the need for the Japanese government to get fiscal consolidation back on track and boost the country’ s long-term growth potential through structural reforms — including accelerated efforts to promote digitalization and the green economy.
To help limit any further increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, the Japanese authorities could consider setting up an independent institution with a mandate to monitor fiscal policy and performance. The country’ s medium-term fiscal consolidation plan should emphasize containing social-security expenditure, while increasing tax revenues after the pandemic. All this would help to reduce the risk of future sovereign downgrades.
The COVID-19 pandemic and now Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine have greatly increased the risks to the global economy. The task for Japanese policymakers is to navigate these challenges while keeping their own country’ s fiscal house in order.
Jinho Choi is deputy group head and senior economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. Kimi Xu Jiang is an economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office. © Project Syndicate, 2022 | tech |
'We're concerned this woman may persuade him to leave his house to her ': My father, 85, moved in with a female friend. How do we stop her taking his money? | Dear Quentin,
My sister and I are worried about Daddy. Our mom passed away about six months ago. About two weeks ago he started talking about a high school “ girl buddy, ” saying they may start living together to get to know each other again.
My dad is 85 and not in good health. Fast forward to a week ago: he just up-and-left the house and moved in with this woman. She lives two hours away from our home. He walked out the door like he’ d be back in an hour. We don’ t think he’ ll ever return.
My sister is supposed to inherit his house, according to his will. Can we have his house declared abandoned? He isn’ t willing to put his house in my sister’ s name. We’ re concerned this woman may persuade him to leave his house to her.
My sister is the executor of his will. We are also still in the process of probating my mom’ s will. Any advice will be appreciated.
The Daughter
Dear Daughter,
Your father’ s home belongs to him and him alone, and he is under no obligation to put the house in your sister’ s name. Nor is he obliged to stay there by himself if he finds companionship elsewhere. This may be his last chance to have a romantic relationship with another woman, and it could bring him peace and happiness in the last years of his life.
Making moves to declare his house abandoned after two weeks because you fear he will leave it to his friend is overstepping your responsibilities as his daughter, and misunderstands the legal process. What’ s more, he has not relinquished all rights to the control of this property. It’ s his home, and he is under no obligation to spend all of his time there.
“ In New York, for example, the abandonment law would apply to one- to four-family residential real properties that are subject to a mortgage, ” says Neil V. Carbone, trusts and estates partner at
Farrell Fritz PC
. “ After the homeowner falls 90 days behind on the mortgage payments, the mortgagee can take steps to have the property deemed abandoned. ”
I understand your concerns. Six months after his wife’ s death leaves him in a vulnerable place. On the one hand, this could be a perfectly innocent relationship. On the other, she could be a bad actor, and someone who has her eyes on his estate. However, you have no reason to suspect the latter. Has she isolated him from his family? Are there signs of physical abuse, and/or coercive control?
“
I understand your concerns. On the one hand, this could be a perfectly innocent relationship. On the other, she could be a bad actor, and someone who has her eyes on his estate.
”
It does happen. Speaking about his second wife,
this man
told his son: “ Son, get a lawyer. That woman is going to take away your inheritance! ” Elderly parents can be vulnerable, and fall victim to scammers and swindlers. But you are a long way from saving your father from an abusive relationship. Focus on his health and wellbeing, rather than his house and estate.
That said, the state of his health and fate of his estate are not mutually exclusive. Your father’ s health problems may call into question any last minute changes he makes, Carbone says. “ If his health problems relate to his mental health, he may not have the requisite capacity to execute a new will. Presumably, any lawyer he meets with for a new will will explore and confirm his capacity. ”
If he has physical problems, “ medications may interfere with his capacity and/or make him more susceptible to influence, ” he adds. “ Even without the issues that medications can present, if his physical problems make him particularly reliant on someone else, he may be subject to undue influence or even duress from that person to make changes in her or his favor.
The best thing you can do now is keep your father in your life; offer him your help in maintaining his home and collecting his mail. Get to know this woman, and make sure that your father is in constant communication with you. If you overreact and start pushing for a conservatorship or power of attorney, you could damage your relationship with him.
In that case, your fears about his estate would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Parents can be victims of undue influence, but they can also push back against adult children who they fear are overstepping their mark, and wishing to exert more control over their parents and/or their estate. In theatrical plays, every character has something they want. Real life is often no different.
Yo
u
can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell @ marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on
Twitter.
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the Moneyist private Facebook
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My girlfriend says I should tip in restaurants. I say waitstaff are just like construction and fast-food workers. Who’ s right?
•
‘ He was infatuated with her’: My brother had a drinking problem and took his own life. He left $ 6 million to his former girlfriend who used to buy him alcohol
•
‘
She had a will, but it was null and void’: My friend and her sister are fighting over their mother’ s life-insurance policy and bank account. Who should win out? | business |
COVID-19 mixed with flu increases risk of severe illness and death -- ScienceDaily | Patients with co-infection of SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid-19, and influenza viruses were over four times more likely to require ventilation support and 2.4 times more likely to die than if they only had Covid-19, experts found.
Researchers say the findings show the need for greater flu testing of Covid-19 patients in hospital and highlight the importance of full vaccination against both Covid-19 and the flu.
The team from the University of Edinburgh, University of Liverpool, Leiden University and Imperial College London, made the findings in a study of more than 305,000 hospitalised patients with Covid-19.
The research -- delivered as part of the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium's ( ISARIC) Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium -- is the largest ever study of people with Covid-19 and other endemic respiratory viruses.
ISARIC's study was set up in 2013 in readiness for a pandemic such as this.
The team looked at the data of adults who had been hospitalised with Covid-19 in the UK between 6 February 2020 and 8 December 2021.
Test results for respiratory viral co-infections were recorded for 6965 patients with Covid-19. Some 227 of these also had the influenza virus, and they experienced significantly more severe outcomes.
Dr Maaike Swets, PhD student at the University of Edinburgh and Leiden University, said: `` In the last two years we have frequently witnessed patients with Covid-19 become severely ill, at times leading to an ICU admission and the employment of an artificial ventilator to help with breathing. That an influenza infection could give rise to a similar situation was already known, but less was understood about the outcomes of a double infection of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses. ''
Professor Kenneth Baillie, Professor of Experimental Medicine at the University of Edinburgh, said: `` We found that the combination of Covid-19 and flu viruses is particularly dangerous. This will be important as many countries decrease the use of social distancing and containment measures. We expect that Covid-19 will circulate with flu, increasing the chance of co-infections. That is why we should change our testing strategy for Covid-19 patients in hospital and test for flu much more widely. ''
Professor Calum Semple, Professor of Outbreak Medicine and Child Health at the University of Liverpool, said: `` We are seeing a rise in the usual seasonal respiratory viruses as people return to normal mixing. So, we can expect flu to be circulating alongside Covid-19 this winter. We were surprised that the risk of death more than doubled when people were infected by both flu and Covid-19 viruses. It is now very important that people get fully vaccinated and boosted against both viruses, and not leave it until it is too late. ''
Dr Geert Groeneveld, doctor at Leiden University Medical Center's infectious diseases department, said: `` Understanding the consequences of double infections of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses is crucial as they have implications for patients, hospitals and ICU capacity during seasons that SARS-CoV-2 and influenza circulate together. ''
Professor Peter Openshaw, Professor of Experimental Medicine at Imperial College London, said: `` Being infected with more than one virus is not very common but it's important to be aware that co-infections do happen. The vaccines that protect against Covid-19 and flu are different, and people need both. The way that these two infections are treated is also different so it's important to test for other viruses even when you have a diagnosis in someone who is hospitalised with a respiratory infection. This latest discovery by the ISARIC consortium again adds significantly to improving the way we manage patients. ''
The findings have been published in The Lancet. The research was funded by UK Research and Innovation ( UKRI) and by the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research ( NIHR) as part of the UK Government's Covid-19 rapid research response. | science |
Will China Buy Russian Natural Gas and Oil Exports in the Wake of Ukraine? | About the author: Erica Downs is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’ s School of International and Public Affairs.
Ever since the U.S. the European Union, and other nations imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, outside observers have wondered whether—and to what extent—China will help Russia weather the blows to its economy. Energy features prominently in such discussions for several reasons.
First, Russia is the world’ s third-largest oil producer and its second-largest producer of natural gas. Western sanctions have stopped the flow of technology and capital to Russia’ s oil and natural gas industry, and traders are currently shunning barrels of Russian oil.
Second, China is the world’ s largest importer of crude oil and natural gas, and Russia was its second-largest oil supplier and its third-largest natural gas supplier in 2021. Moreover, less than three weeks before Russian troops marched into Ukraine, China’ s leader, Xi Jinping, and Russia’ s president, Vladimir Putin, declared that their countries’ friendship had “ no limits. ” In addition, Chinese officials have stated that China will not participate in Western sanctions and that normal trade and economic cooperation with Russia will continue.
There is precedent. In May 2014, in the wake of the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea, Putin traveled to China to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. During his visit, Russia’ s state pipeline monopoly, Gazprom, and China National Petroleum Corporation signed an agreement for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years through the Power of Siberia Pipeline. Two Chinese banks also agreed to provide Russia’ s largest independent natural gas producer, Novatek, with $ 12.5 billion in euros and renminbi to develop the first liquified natural gas project in Russia’ s Far North.
In the short term, there are limits to the amount of additional oil and especially natural gas that likely will flow from Russia to China.
First, the number of extra barrels of Russian oil that is absorbed by China is likely to be shaped by a variety of factors. These include how many barrels can be displaced from other suppliers, the availability of refining and storage capacity, prices and the impact of China’ s Covid lockdowns on its oil demand.
Second, Western sanctions appear to be limiting Chinese purchases of Russian oil. For example, China’ s independent refiners, which are concentrated in northeast China and favor Russia’ s ESPO crude, and the Chinese banks that provide them with letters of credit, have been acting with caution due to concerns about running afoul of future U.S. sanctions. There have been reports of some independent refiners putting ESPO crude purchases on pause due to uncertainty over sanctions and others being forced to find alternative payment methods for Russian oil after banks refused to provide letters of credit. Similarly, state-owned refiners seeking to purchase Russia’ s Urals crude, which is trading at a record discount to Brent crude, are reportedly having trouble finding shipping companies willing to transport Russian barrels.
Third, Russia’ s natural gas export pipelines are in the wrong place for it to divert supplies bound for Europe to China. The capacity of Russia’ s eight major pipelines currently delivering natural gas to Europe is 220 bcm, nearly six times that of the one pipeline delivering natural gas to China, the Power of Siberia ( 38 bcm), which is not yet operating at full capacity. Moreover, the natural gas that Russia delivers to Europe and China by pipeline is supplied by different fields that are not connected.
Russia may have more success in diverting some LNG exports to China. LNG is transported from Russia to China by ship instead of a cross-border pipeline. But the volumes available for diversion are small. In 2020, Russia exported 17.2 bcm of LNG to Europe, and China imported 94 bcm ( including 6.9 bcm from Russia), of which almost 40 bcm were spot purchases ( as opposed to sales under term contracts). These numbers suggest China has the capacity to absorb more Russian LNG.
In the long term, Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine will very likely result in an even more robust China-Russia energy relationship.
The European Union’ s plan to phase out Russian oil, natural gas, and coal is likely to galvanize Putin to accelerate the development of infrastructure to expand natural gas exports to China. The two countries took another step in this direction during Putin’ s visit to Beijing in February, when Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation agreed to build a new 10 bcm pipeline to deliver natural gas from the Russian Far East to China. When complete, this project will expand Russia’ s export pipeline capacity to China by almost 25% to 48 bcm.
Putin, however, is likely to want Beijing to agree to an even bigger pipeline, the Power of Siberia II. This long-discussed project would have the capacity to deliver 50 bcm of natural gas from West Siberia ( some of which is currently exported to Europe) to China via Mongolia. If Russia were to sign a supply contract with China for natural gas to be delivered through the Power of Siberia II, then Gazprom would build an interconnector between its pipelines that flow to the west and the east, which would allow the company to send to China natural gas from fields that currently only supply Europe.
The Power of Siberia II is probably attractive to China because it can deliver a large volume of natural gas—more than one-third of China’ s imports in 2020—overland. Not only would gas shipped via the Power of Siberia II avoid the risks associated with traveling long distances through the sea lines of communication. It would also be dispatched from a country whose capital is highly unlikely to succumb to pressure from Washington to turn off the taps.
That said, one of the hallmarks of China’ s approach to energy security has been the diversification of energy suppliers and import routes to avoid becoming excessing dependent on any single supplier or import routes. Would importing 98 bcm of pipeline gas plus LNG from Russia would make China excessively reliant on its northern neighbor? Beijing now has a decision to make. | business |
Israel to host 'historic summit ' of US, Arab diplomats | Hi, what are you looking for?
Israel said it will host a “ historic summit ” from Sunday of top diplomats from the United States and three Arab states.
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Israel said it will host a “ historic summit ” from Sunday of top diplomats from the United States and three Arab states with which it has normalised ties.
“ At the invitation of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, this upcoming Sunday and Monday… a historic diplomatic summit will be held in Israel, ” the foreign ministry said on Friday.
A series of meetings would be attended by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his counterparts from the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, it said, without giving further details.
Israeli leaders, including Lapid, have visited the Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco since normalising ties, but of the three countries only Bahrain’ s foreign minister has conducted a visit to Israel.
The United Arab Emirates forged diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020 under a series of US-brokered deals known as the Abraham Accords.
Bahrain and Morocco followed suit, while Sudan also agreed to normalise ties with Israel although it has yet to finalise a deal.
The agreements, reached under former US president Donald Trump, broke with decades of Arab consensus that there would be no relations with Israel while the Palestinian question remains unresolved.
But the Arab countries said they were motivated by economic benefits of ties with Israel.
The upcoming talks come against the backdrop of Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has sparked wider security concerns and sent oil and food prices soaring.
– Impact of Ukraine war –
It also follows a three-way summit hosted by Egypt on Tuesday at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and the UAE’ s de facto ruler, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed.
Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, after decades of enmity and conflict. Jordan followed suit in 1994.
It was not immediately known where in Israel the top diplomats would meet.
But the talks are being organised to coincide with a regional tour by Blinken due to begin on Saturday.
The US secretary of state is due to hold talks with the Israeli premier before meeting Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas at his Ramallah headquarters in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Blinken is also due to visit Algeria and Morocco at a time when the region is reeling from the backlash of Russia’ s war on Ukraine.
“ We know this pain is keenly felt in the Middle East and North Africa, where most countries import at least half of their wheat ” — much of it from Ukraine, State Department Acting Assistant Secretary Yael Lempert told reporters in Washington.
While in Morocco, Blinken is also due to meet the UAE’ s de facto ruler, the State Department said.
Blinken’ s visit also comes amid Israeli efforts to mediate a solution to the war in Ukraine which has left both sides with heavy losses and shows no signs of abating.
It also comes as the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran to restore the 2015 accord limiting Tehran’ s nuclear activities in return for removing sanctions on the country.
The UAE, Bahrain and Israel share concerns over Iran’ s nuclear programme.
Israel and Iran have been at loggerheads since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the Western-backed shah.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
Under a shattered crescent hanger at Ukraine's Gostomel Airport the world's largest plane lies buckled and broken.
A federal appeals court upheld Biden’ s vaccine mandate for federal workers, while COVID-19 cases rise.
The fake logic is simple to the point of idiocy, but it’ ll work in information-starved Russia.
At least 52 people are killed, including five children, in a rocket attack on a train station in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk.
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Last train to Helsinki for departing Russians | Hi, what are you looking for?
The rail operator said the last train from Russia to Finland will operate on Sunday morning.
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One of the few remaining routes open from Russia to the European Union is closing down after Finland’ s railway operator announced the last train from St Petersburg to Helsinki will run on Sunday.
Following Moscow’ s invasion of Ukraine, the twice-daily Allegro express train was regularly packed with Russians and Finns eager to get out before Western sanctions make leaving all-but impossible.
“ So far we have continued to run the Allegro service in line with official guidance, in order to secure the passage of Finns to Finland, ” Topi Simola, senior vice president of Finnish operator VR said in a statement on Friday.
As airspace closures and other sanctions hit, the Allegro — the last rail link still in operation between Russia and the EU — saw demand soar.
“ In the last weeks people who have wanted to leave Russia have been able to exit the country, ” Simola said.
However, on Thursday Finland’ s minister for state-owned enterprises Tytti Tuppurainen informed VR that “ operating the service was no longer appropriate ” in light of the heavy sanctions against Russia.
The rail operator said the last train from Russia to Finland will operate on Sunday morning.
Most trains have been packed since the February 24 invasion, bringing 700 passengers a day to Finland, but over the last fortnight traveller numbers have decreased to 60 percent of capacity, a VR spokesman told AFP.
Although many Russians have reportedly sought to leave, the Allegro link to Helsinki has only been open to a select few.
Moscow stipulates that passengers must be Russian or Finnish citizens. A visa is required as well as proof of an EU-recognised Covid vaccination, and not the Sputnik dose which is most commonly given in Russia.
Most passengers arriving in the Finnish capital have therefore been Russians who live, work or study in Europe.
On Friday an exhibition of shocking images from the war in Ukraine opened at a train station in Lithuania, with the aim of giving Russian transit travellers a true picture of the conflict.
The Baltic state allows 100 trains a month to transit to and from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, although Russian passengers are not allowed to disembark in Lithuania.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
Dozens of mourners trudged through the snow in a Siberian village to pay last respects to Sergei Sokolov, a young Russian serviceman killed in...
The circumstances around the family drama in an upmarket neighbourhood of the picturesque town on the shores of Lake Geneva remained unclear - Copyright...
Russians aren’ t waiting to see what happens next.
Russia has been accused of comitting war crimes in its invasion of Ukraine. Can Russia be held accountable?
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Aspirin may reduce death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, study finds -- ScienceDaily | Lead researcher, Jonathan Chow said, `` This is our third study and the culmination of 15 months of work looking at aspirin use in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We continue to find that aspirin use is associated with improved outcomes and lower rates of death in hospitalized patients. What's more, it's low cost and readily available, which is important in parts of the world where more expensive therapeutics might not be as accessible. ''
The study included the largest data set of 112,269 patients hospitalized with moderate COVID-19. The data included patients enrolled from January 1, 2020, through September 10, 2021, at 64 health systems in the United States participating in the National Institute of Health's National COVID Cohort Collaborative ( N3C).
Researchers found a 1.6% reduction in mortality when aspirin was given within the first day of hospitalization in patients with moderate disease severity and that patients were less prone to forming blood clots. They also found that elderly patients and patients with one or more comorbidities especially benefit from early aspirin therapy.
Keith Crandall, Director of the Computational Biology Institute ( CBI) at George Washington University, the organization that helped assemble and input GW's data into the NIH database and curate the dataset into a usable format for the statistical analysis, said, `` This research is vital to providing physicians and patients effective and accessible COVID-19 treatments to help reduce in-hospital mortality rates and help people recover from this potentially devastating disease. ''
Chow and his team have been focused on this topic since the beginning of the pandemic. Their first study published in April 2021 and the second study published in November 2021.
This latest study, `` Association of Early Aspirin Use With In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 '' will be published on March 24 in JAMA Network Open. | science |
Liver disease increases as result of life-style changes due to COVID-19, study reveals -- ScienceDaily | The retrospective study used health checkup data of 973 participants between 2018 and 2020 from MedCity21, an advanced medical center for preventive medicine established by Osaka City University Hospital in 2014, and found that new diagnoses of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease ( MAFLD) rose from 22 before the COVID pandemic to 44 during the pandemic.
`` Before the pandemic, we found routine late-night meals, or dinner 2 hours before bedtime, as an independent lifestyle predictor of developing MAFLD, '' states Hideki Fujii, first author of the study, `` however, analysis showed higher daily alcohol intake as an independent predictor of the disease during the pandemic. ''
Pre-pandemic
Researchers analyzed the lifestyle habits of the 22 patients who developed MAFLD between July 2018 and December 2019, which included alcohol intake, exercise, sleep duration, meals per day, and late-night meals. Through a univariate and multivariate analysis of the data to control for potential risk factors like age, sex, etc., they found only the proportion of late-night meals as significantly higher, marking this as an independent predictor of developing MAFLD.
During pandemic
Between December 2019 and December 2020, in the additional 44 patients who developed MAFLD, researchers found a jump in alcohol intake mainly among patients less than 60 years of age. `` This represents a major proportion of the working-age population, '' says Dr. Fujii, `` suggesting a need to more closely monitor and address this life-style change as the pandemic continues. '' Also, the proportion of smokers and those who ate 2 meals a day instead of 3 were higher in those who developed MAFLD during the pandemic.
`` Our data is drawn from individuals who, after undergoing abdominal ultrasonography in 2018, returned for routine follow-ups until 2020, '' explains Dr. Fujii. While the research team is aware that this suggests most participants were healthy enough to engage in work and were sufficiently health conscious to voluntarily undergo health checkups, `` we were curious about the impact COVID-19, and its associated `` new normal '' lifestyles, had on incidences of MAFLD, '' continues Dr. Fujii -- something that has remained until now, unknown.
As the pandemic continues into 2022, these results are ever more relevant for patient lifestyle counseling to prevent the increasing number of individuals with MAFLD. | science |
Covid-19, genomics, and inherited disease: lessons from the pandemic | Hi, what are you looking for?
Covid-19 caused the most significant public health crisis of the 21st century.
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Opinions expressed by Digital Journal contributors are their own.
Covid-19 caused the most significant public health crisis of the 21st century – the longer-term social, cultural, and economic outcomes of which will be hard to determine for some time, if ever. In the short term however, the pandemic has had an indisputable impact on the genomics industry.
For the vast majority of the general public exposure to genomics technology prior to the emergence of Covid-19 was limited to consumer-focused ancestry products such as 23andMe. The pandemic changed this.
In many countries, this shift in public awareness has been driven in part by repeated references to genomic technology during government briefings. Using google news as an indicator of the topics being publicly discussed reveals references to the terms genomic or genomics increased by more than 200 per cent between 2019 and 2022.
The pandemic has also had a tangible impact on general awareness of genomics technology among policymakers. The UK Government’ s willingness to share its genomic tracking data with the rest of the world was vital to our collective response to the threat the virus posed, earning special praise from both the WHO and Germany’ s chief vaccinologist, Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten – who recently admitted that his country based its entire pandemic policy on UK, Danish, and Israeli data.
The pandemic forced governments around the world to wake up to the importance and power of mass genomic surveys to do tangible good.
So, what does this mean? Researchers and commentators alike have heralded the birth of a new age of humanity since the structure of DNA was first determined in the 1950s. Supported by genetic science, it was believed humankind would render disease obsolete and break our connection to evolutionary processes. As we know too well, disease remains very much a fact of life and the development of our species is still subject to the random forces of evolution.
Nevertheless, the real promise of genomics technology is now beginning to become more apparent.
To start with, we have an increasingly accurate understanding of both the processes which drive the evolution of pathogens and why they affect some people more acutely than others based on genetic predisposition. In fact, researchers at Imperial College London recently found that people with a common genetic change to one protein were less likely to be hospitalised with severe Covid-19.
Further, the wider availability of genetic testing developed by companies such as BGI Group is helping to identify inherited disease safely and accurately, allowing earlier intervention where a diagnosis may have been missed – leading to better and more targeted treatment.
Hearing loss and deafness is a particular area of focus for the company, and one in which it is increasingly recognised as a world leader. Over 400 million people, including 34 million children, live with disabling hearing loss, affecting their health and quality of life. Thankfully, progress in the form of genetic testing advances is being made.
A number of recent BGI-authored studies support the efficacy of genetic testing for hearing loss versus more traditional hearing screening approaches. A 2019 study of over 12,000 individuals revealed that genetic screening detected 13% more hearing-impaired infants than hearing screening alone. A 2021 study published in Nature has further underlined the potential of genetic testing in diagnosing hearing loss – indicating that a stepwise approach to testing produces even more accurate results.
Unfortunately, these methods of genomic testing are not yet generally available to the public. Given approximately 40% of hearing loss in children has a genetic component, it is essential that genetic testing becomes a routine element of early treatment and vigilance. This is especially true given the profound developmental challenges children with hearing loss face – even more so when they have not been diagnosed.
As the world emerges from the pandemic with a newly found appreciation for genomics technology, the stage is set for improved outcomes for those living with inherited conditions. It is essential that our leaders apply the lessons learned during the pandemic, particularly the importance of expanding the use of genomics to secure better public health outcomes, and encourage the private sector to expand the testing solutions on offer. Further, as Germany’ s Dr. Christian Drosten indicated, scientific cooperation across borders is an essential component of our efforts to respond to public health crises and research in general.
I am the Founder and CEO of one of the fastest growing digital marketing agencies globally, T1 Advertising ( www.t1advertising.com), Forbes Magazine Digital Marketing Columnist and Business Council Member ( www.forbes.com), and a shareholder in the magazine of L’ Officiel USA Magazine ( www.lofficielusa.com).
Russians aren’ t waiting to see what happens next.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urges NATO members to provide Kyiv with offensive weapons, including tanks and fighter jets.
Australia's spectacular Great Barrier Reef is suffering `` mass bleaching '' as corals lose their colour under the stress of warmer seas.
The US city of Miami Beach prepared to impose a curfew to stem a wave of violence linked to the influx of revellers for...
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Alpaca nanobodies potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 variants -- ScienceDaily | `` With the help of advanced laboratory techniques, we were able to identify a panel of nanobodies that very effectively neutralized several variants of SARS-CoV-2, '' says Gerald McInerney, professor at the Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology ( MTC), Karolinska Institutet, and joint senior author of both studies.
Despite the roll-out of vaccines and antivirals, the need for effective therapeutics against severe COVID-19 infection remains high. Nanobodies -- which are fragments of antibodies that occur naturally in camelids and can be adapted for humans -- are promising therapeutic candidates as they offer several advantages over conventional antibodies. For example, they have favourable biochemical properties and are easy to produce cost-effectively at scale.
In the now published studies, the labs of Gerald McInerney and Ben Murrell, also at MTC, identify several potent nanobodies derived from an alpaca immunised with SARS-CoV-2 antigens.
The first report in Nature Communications describes a single nanobody, Fu2 ( named after the alpaca Funny), that significantly reduced the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in cell cultures and mice. Using electron cryo-microscopy, the researchers found that Fu2 naturally binds to two separate sites on the viral spike, thus inhibiting the virus ' ability to enter the host cell. This part of the study was conducted in collaboration with Hrishikesh Das and Martin Hällberg at the Department of Cell and Molecular Biology at Karolinska Institutet.
The researchers next delved deeper into the alpaca's nanobody repertoire by combining a range of advanced laboratory techniques and computational methods, resulting in a library of nanobodies described in detail.
The results, presented in Science Advances, revealed additional nanobodies that in cell cultures and mice effectively cross-neutralized both the founder and beta variant of SARS-CoV-2 and even neutralized the more distantly related SARS-CoV-1.
`` These nanobodies represent promising therapeutic candidates against several SARS-CoV-2 variants, '' says first author Leo Hanke, a postdoctoral researcher who established the nanobody technology in the McInerney group.
The researchers are currently applying the same techniques to identify which nanobodies from this set are best able to neutralize Omicron, the now dominating SARS-CoV-2 variant.
`` Once established, these libraries can be expanded and mined for nanobodies that neutralize new emerging variants, '' says Assistant Professor Ben Murrell, also joint senior author of both studies.
Funding was provided by David and Astrid Hagelén Foundation, the Clas Groschinskys Minnesfond and a Jonas Söderquist's scholarship, European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Swedish Research Council, and Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation. | science |
How fingers could point to a link between low testosterone and COVID hospitalizations -- ScienceDaily | New research involving Swansea University is examining the link between levels of sex hormones in the womb and in puberty and Covid hospitalizations.
Most people who contract the virus only experience mild symptoms. But when it comes to patients who need hospital care, the rates vary depending on age ( with elderly people the most affected) and gender ( with males experiencing a higher severity than females).
This has led scientists to examine the link between testosterone and Covid-19 severity more closely. One hypothesis implicates high testosterone in severe cases but another links low levels of testosterone in elderly men with a poor prognosis.
Now Professor John Manning, of the Applied Sports Technology, Exercise and Medicine ( A-STEM) research team, has been working with colleagues from the Medical University of Lodz in Poland and Sweden's Karolinska University Hospital to look more closely at digit ratios ( ratios of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th digits) as predictors of severity of Covid-19 symptoms.
The researchers observed that patients with `` feminized '' short little fingers relative to their other digits tend to experience severe Covid-19 symptoms leading to hospitalization, and more importantly patients with large right hand -- left hand differences in ratios 2D:4D and 3D:5D -- have substantially elevated probabilities of hospitalization.
These preliminary findings have just been published in Scientific Reports.
Professor Manning said: `` Our findings suggest that Covid-19 severity is related to low testosterone and possibly high oestrogen in both men and women.
`` 'Feminized ' differences in digit ratios in hospitalised patients supports the view that individuals who have experienced low testosterone and/or high oestrogen are prone to severe expression of Covid-19. This may explain why the most at-risk group is elderly males.
`` This is significant because if it is possible to identify more precisely who is likely to be prone severe Covid-19, this would help in targeting vaccination. Right-Left differences in digit ratios ( particularly 2D:4D and 3D:5D) may help in this regard. ''
There are currently several trials of anti-androgen ( testosterone) drugs as treatment for Covid-19. However, in contrast, there is also interest in testosterone as an anti-viral against Covid-19.
He added: `` Our research is helping to add to understanding of Covid-19 and may bring us closer to improving the repertoire of anti-viral drugs, helping to shorten hospital stays and reduce mortality rates. ''
Professor Manning said the team's work would now continue: `` The sample is small but ongoing work has increased the sample. We hope to report further results shortly. ''
His previous work in the field highlighted how the length of children's fingers relate to mothers ' income level and point to susceptibility to diseases that begin in the womb.
Researchers led by Professor Manning revealed that low-income mothers may feminize their children in the womb by adjusting their hormones, whereas high-income mothers masculinize their offspring. | science |
Design of protein binders from target structure alone -- ScienceDaily | The research, appearing March 24 in the journal Nature, was led by scientists in the laboratory of David Baker, professor of biochemistry at the University of Washington School of Medicine and a recipient of the 2021 Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences.
`` The ability to generate new proteins that bind tightly and specifically to any molecular target that you want is a paradigm shift in drug development and molecular biology more broadly, '' said Baker.
Antibodies are today's most common protein-based drugs. They typically function by binding to a specific molecular target, which then becomes either activated or deactivated. Antibodies can treat a wide range of health disorders, including COVID-19 and cancer, but generating new ones is challenging. Antibodies can also be costly to manufacture.
A team led by two postdoctoral scholars in the Baker lab, Longxing Cao and Brian Coventry, combined recent advances in the field of computational protein design to arrive at a strategy for creating new proteins that bind molecular targets in a manner similar to antibodies. They developed software that can scan a target molecule, identify potential binding sites, generate proteins targeting those sites, and then screen from millions of candidate binding proteins to identify those most likely to function.
The team used the new software to generate high-affinity binding proteins against 12 distinct molecular targets. These targets include important cellular receptors such as TrkA, EGFR, Tie2, and the insulin receptor, as well proteins on the surface of the influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 ( the virus that causes COVID-19).
`` When it comes to creating new drugs, there are easy targets and there are hard targets, '' said Cao, who is now an assistant professor at Westlake University. `` In this paper, we show that even very hard targets are amenable to this approach. We were able to make binding proteins to some targets that had no known binding partners or antibodies, ''
In total, the team produced over half a million candidate binding proteins for the 12 selected molecular targets. Data collected on this large pool of candidate binding proteins was used to improve the overall method.
`` We look forward to seeing how these molecules might be used in a clinical context, and more importantly how this new method of designing protein drugs might lead to even more promising compounds in the future, '' said Coventry.
The research team included scientists from the University of Washington School of Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Ghent University, The Scripps Research Institute, and the National Cancer Institute, among other institutions.
This work was supported in part by The Audacious Project at the Institute for Protein Design, Open Philanthropy Project, National Institutes of Health ( HHSN272201700059C, R01AI140245, R01AI150855, R01AG063845), Defense Advanced Research Project Agency ( HR0011835403 contract FA8750-17-C-0219), Defense Threat Reduction Agency ( HDTRA1-16-C-0029), Schmidt Futures, Gates Ventures, Donald and Jo Anne Petersen Endowment, and an Azure computing gift for COVID-19 research provided by Microsoft. | science |
America's Macroeconomic Outlook by J. Bradford DeLong | Given the depth of the recession caused by COVID-19 in early 2020, the current state of the US economy and labor market is nothing short of spectacular. And though an inevitable increase in inflation has rained on the parade, there is still good reason to think that it will subside in the medium term.
BERKELEY – Many who now worry about rising inflation in the United States may disagree, but the US Federal Reserve should take a victory lap. Just consider what the Fed has achieved over the past two years.
At this time in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had pushed employment down by a massive 14% when large portions of the economy were forced to shut down. And although employment bounced back when the economy began to reopen, it nonetheless remained 7% below its pre-pandemic level.
Getting back that remaining 7% was always going to be difficult, because it required a re-division of labor. During the disappointing, anemic, unsatisfactory recovery from the Great Recession a decade ago, re-knitting the fabric of the labor market occurred at a pace that increased employment only about 1.3 percentage points per year. Because demand was slack and growing only very slowly during this period, it was difficult to figure out which business models would be profitable and where labor was really needed.
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Cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based technologies are here to stay. But what will their next chapter look like?
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J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’ s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.
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Russia insists on calling its war in Ukraine a “ special military operation ” not just to downplay the brutality of its intervention but above all to make clear that war in the old sense of an armed conflict between nation-states does not apply. The Kremlin is merely securing “ peace ” in what it considers its geopolitical sphere of influence.
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The Ukraine War Is Reshaping Development by Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng | However the conflict in Eastern Europe unfolds, it seems clear that countries will have to give national security a far more prominent position in their development agendas. This means not only increasing defense spending, but also diversifying energy and food sources – and preparing for global economic fragmentation.
HONG KONG – The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was always fragile, especially in the developing world. With Russia’ s disastrous war in Ukraine, it has been all but shattered. But the invasion’ s immediate consequences are just the beginning. In a world yet again defined by great-power conflict, countries will have to rethink their approach to development.
There was a time when development economists focused primarily on growth. Rapid economic expansion, it was believed, was the key to delivering broad prosperity. But, in the 1980s, social inclusivity and the environment began to feature in the policy agenda, and have become increasingly prominent over the years.
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine – and even before the pandemic took hold – emerging markets and developing economies ( EMDEs) were struggling on all of these fronts. In March 2020, the World Bank estimated that inequality within EMDEs, and the gap between them and the advanced economies, had reached levels last seen a decade prior. Amid soaring poverty, catastrophic natural disasters, and intensifying civil strife, it should not be surprising that developing-country policymakers struggled to formulate climate policies that could fulfill international commitments.
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Andrew Sheng, a distinguished fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
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Xiao Geng, Chairman of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor and Director of the Institute of Policy and Practice at the Shenzhen Finance Institute at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen.
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You don't have to be China to learn from past mistakes and adapt to changing conditions. What is unique about China is that it is a huge country governed by a communist party that is well organized and has long history. Few countries have that type single party rule, the capacity or the desire to build such party. Developing countries should primarily focus on their own histories and experiences to find the best way forward.
I find the PS essays written by these two economists to be extended cheerleading -- or, failing that, an extended apologia -- of the China model. Thinkers are interesting when they offer up counterintuitive ideas, not when they are slaves of ideological masters.
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Russia insists on calling its war in Ukraine a “ special military operation ” not just to downplay the brutality of its intervention but above all to make clear that war in the old sense of an armed conflict between nation-states does not apply. The Kremlin is merely securing “ peace ” in what it considers its geopolitical sphere of influence.
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Double lung transplant saves US man with terminal cancer | Hi, what are you looking for?
US doctors announced Thursday they had successfully performed a double lung transplant on a patient with terminal lung cancer.
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US doctors announced Thursday they had successfully performed a double lung transplant on a patient with terminal lung cancer, giving new hope to others who also are in advanced stages of the deadly disease.
Albert Khoury, a 54-year-old non-smoker, underwent a seven-hour surgery to receive his new lungs at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago on September 25, 2021.
Six months on, the lungs are working well and he has no signs of cancer in his body.
“ Lung transplantation for lung cancer is extremely uncommon with few cases reported, ” Ankit Bharat, chief of thoracic surgery at Northwestern Medicine, said in a statement.
“ For patients with stage 4 cancer, lung transplantation is considered a complete ‘ no-no,’ but because Albert’ s cancer was confined only to his chest, we were confident we could clear all the cancer during surgery and save his life. ”
Surgeons are generally reluctant to proceed with such transplants because if there are even a few cancerous cells remaining, there is a strong chance they will regrow in a patient taking immune-suppressing medications to prevent organ rejection.
The few such procedures in the past have not been successful, but since then, advances have allowed doctors to better understand cancer’ s spread and when an intervention might work.
Khoury, who was working as a cement finisher for the city of Chicago, began to experience back pain, sneezing, chills, cough and mucus in early 2020. At first he assumed it was Covid, but called his doctor when he coughed up blood.
“ They discovered stage 1 lung cancer, but due to the Covid-19 surge, I couldn’ t begin treatment right away, ” he said in a statement.
By July 2020, his cancer — invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma — progressed to stage 2, and, despite several rounds of chemotherapy, kept growing to stage 3 and stage 4.
He was told there was no chance of survival, but his sister, who had heard about the pioneering lung transplants at Northwestern, urged him to get another opinion.
– ‘ Can’ t stop smiling’ –
In 2020, Bharat had performed the first US double lung transplant on a woman in her twenties whose lungs had been decimated by Covid.
Khoury came under the care of oncologist Young Chae at Northwestern who wanted first to try other cancer-fighting treatments — but his health kept declining, leaving him in an intensive care unit with pneumonia and sepsis.
It was determined that he was in fact a candidate for transplant since the cancer, despite being stage 4, had not spread to other organs, and he received his new lungs after a two-week wait.
The team had to remove “ trillions ” of cancer cells all over his lungs within a six hour time frame, all the while taking care not to spill material into his chest cavity or blood stream.
“ It was an exciting night, ” said Bharat.
Khoury is now leading a normal life, and is able to work and go to the gym, without requiring breathing support.
“ My life went from zero to 100 because of Northwestern Medicine, ” he said.
“ You didn’ t see this smile on my face for over a year, but now I can’ t stop smiling. ”
Based on the success, Bharat and Chae are developing a new set of protocols to determine who else might be eligible for such treatment.
“ We have now convinced ourselves that it’ s possible to offer transplant in a cancer setting… I think it’ s going to make a bigger impact than we appreciate right now, ” said Bharat.
Lung cancer is by far the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the United States making up almost 25 percent of all cancer mortalities — but the number of new cases has been declining, partly because of people quitting smoking.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
The plane has been chartered by Swiss millionaire Guido Fluri.
India has abstained on UN resolutions censuring Russia and continues to buy Russian oil and other goods.
Mexican President López Obrador is critical of the U.S. for its quick action in approving aid to Ukraine.
Dozens of mourners trudged through the snow in a Siberian village to pay last respects to Sergei Sokolov, a young Russian serviceman killed in...
COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2022 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
ADRs End Mostly Lower; NIO Traded Actively | International stocks trading in New York closed mostly lower on Friday.
The S & P/BNY Mellon index of American depositary receipts eased 0.2% to 157.25. The Asian index fell 1% to 193.10. And the emerging-markets index fell 1% to 328.78.
Meanwhile, the European index gained 0.2% to 144.36 and the Latin American index rose 0.9% to 225.34.
NIO Inc. was among those whose ADRs traded actively.
The Food and Drug Administration restricted the use of GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Vir Biotechnology Inc.'s sotrovimab to treat Covid-19 in some areas saying it's unlikely to be effective against the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant. GSK closed 0.1% lower at $ 43.28 and traded slightly down after hours.
Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO Inc.'s ADRs fell 9% to $ 19.91 as quarterly delivery guidance missed Wall Street's expectations.
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Will the TRIPS Waiver Solve Covid-19 Vaccine Inequity? | About the author: Rachel Silverman is a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development.
The Covid-19 pandemic has continued to evolve and mutate along with its underlying virus, frustrating efforts to project its course. Yet one early prediction has come true. Even as highly effective vaccines and therapeutics have come to market in record time, they have been extremely slow to reach the world’ s poorest countries and people. While wealthy countries have enjoyed almost universal access to vaccines since late spring or early summer of last year—and are now rolling out third- and fourth-round booster shots across their populations—less than 10% of people in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali have received their first shot.
Global health leaders have persistently, accurately, and urgently highlighted these enormous disparities, decrying the injustice of “ vaccine apartheid. ” But more than two years into the pandemic—given these shocking statistics—has that moral clarity translated into sound strategic decisions to advance global vaccine access?
The “ TRIPS Waiver ” is a proposal to address vaccine inequities. The details of the proposal have changed over time, but it was originally advanced at the World Trade Organization in October 2020 by India and South Africa before vaccines and the inequity we see today had materialized. Supported by many low- and middle-income countries, the measure would exempt ( at that point hypothetical) Covid-19 vaccines, diagnostics, therapeutics, and other tools from the standard international protections that enable intellectual property monopolies. There are many exceptions and nuances to international intellectual property law, but at a basic level, a company that owns the rights to a vaccine normally has the ultimate authority to decide who can produce it. The waiver would make it simpler for countries to decide to override that authority, in theory easing the path to produce more doses.
The prospect of a TRIPS waiver became a global health cause célèbre from day one, drawing support from prominent leaders and civil society. The campaign for a “ people’ s vaccine, ” free of IP barriers and available to all, consumed an enormous share of advocacy efforts and political will. Many of its supporters came into their professional lives during the travesty of the AIDS crisis, where global enforcement of patents had blocked millions of patients from accessing life-saving AIDS drugs for years. They were determined that such history should not repeat itself; this time, we would elevate human lives over industry profits.
But as an actual policy measure for the Covid-19 response, the value of a TRIPS waiver was contested and at times almost certainly overstated given the complexity of international IP laws and the difficulty of reverse-engineering Covid vaccines. Even the original proposal was time-limited, applied only to international IP obligations ( versus local laws and protections), and offered no provisions to compel technology transfer or industry cooperation. Some campaigners made sweeping ( and inaccurate) claims about the potential power of a TRIPS waiver to unlock vaccine production and save millions of lives. Other more sophisticated organizations, such as Medicins Sans Frontieres and Knowledge Ecology International, argued strongly in favor of the TRIPS waiver but acknowledged that it was one of several complementary measures required to enable local production of Covid tools.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the proposed waiver was anathema to industry and initially blocked by a number of TRIPS signatories, most notably the European Union; other stakeholders, like the U.S., nominally supported the measure but wanted to water it down in negotiations. The effort to advance and pass a TRIPS waiver at the WTO has consumed an enormous share of advocacy energy and political will during this same period through multiple rounds of meetings, debate, and negotiation—both in public and behind closed doors.
It has been nearly a year and a since the first vaccines became available, and no TRIPS waiver has yet been passed. But last week, a leaked document suggested a potential compromise that could break the impasse. The compromise position would be far more limited than the initial proposal. It covers only patents, not trade secrets; applies only to Covid vaccines, which are the hardest to reverse-engineer anyway, versus the broader set of therapeutics, diagnostics, and other tools; and is geographically limited in scope in a manner that would effectively exclude Chinese and Brazilian manufacturers from participation. Advocates have reacted with disappointment and fury at the measure’ s relative weakness.
Whatever the merits of the proposal—and whether or not some compromise version ultimately passes—it is clarifying to reflect on the results for global vaccine equity after 18 months of campaigning.
At first, the failures are obvious. No TRIPS waiver has been passed, despite the enormous investment of advocacy resources and political negotiation. One-dose vaccine coverage remains abysmal in some of the poorest countries, hovering somewhere under 10%. COVAX, the global facility to procure vaccines on behalf of the world’ s poorest countries, struggled to procure doses and has more recently been forced to slow operations due to insufficient donor financing. U.S. funding for global vaccination remains in limbo after it was stripped from a supplemental funding bill.
But it’ s not all bad news, and in many ways the world has moved on from the initial IP debates even as negotiations continue at the WTO. Analysis from my colleagues at the Center for Global Development shows that this has been the fastest and most equitable vaccine roll-out in history by an order of magnitude—even as it left the poorest countries behind. Pharmaceutical companies have actively cooperated in voluntary licensing deals to scale vaccine and therapeutic production and rapidly expand global access, even for brand new treatments like Paxlovid. Vaccines and treatments are getting out to low- and middle-income countries, even if there’ s still work to be done.
The underlying moral principle behind the TRIPS waiver proposal was simple and inarguably correct: We should all value human lives over industry profits. But life is about choices, and the moral high ground is no substitute for smart strategy and hard-nosed prioritization, especially when human lives are on the line.
The advocacy community deserves credit for helping increase the general sense of pressure on industry, which no doubt helped facilitate access concessions and voluntary licensing deals. Yet the narrow focus on TRIPS was ultimately misguided. The attempt to pass a TRIPS waiver, even if it ultimately succeeds, will be a day late and a dollar short—too limited in scope to be useful, and superseded by progress that has taken place in its absence.
Counterfactuals are easy to suggest and impossible to prove. But what if that same advocacy energy had instead been trained on less contentious, more actionable measures—even if they felt less morally satisfying? On pushing for quicker, better resourcing and more expeditious deployment of World Bank funds to purchase vaccines for the poorest countries? On better supporting vaccine campaigns with money and technical assistance on the ground? On regional efforts, in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere, to collectively purchase vaccines and generate citizen demand? On more quickly and aggressively subsidizing manufacturing scale-up, including paying off industry for free use of its IP and technology transfer abroad? What if we had not criticized but instead harnessed companies’ greed for the global good, making the world a better place even if we lined pharma executives’ pockets in the process?
We should never value money over lives, but the inverse holds true: We shouldn’ t put lives at risk because of a distaste for corporate profits or hold out on moral principle instead of doing the messy work required to solve global problems. A pandemic is a bad time for profiteering. But it’ s also a bad time for posturing and positioning. Sometimes the urgent global good requires a partnership with big pharma and rewards them financially; sometimes we need to hold our nose and approve a scientifically important and potentially lifesaving health technology, even if ( some) revenues will benefit Big Tobacco.
From this point out, I hope we can endeavor to choose the path that saves lives with a sense of urgency and purpose. | business |
Henry Ahn Named Chief Business Officer at fuboTV | NEW YORK -- ( BUSINESS WIRE) -- fuboTV Inc. ( NYSE: FUBO), the leading sports-first live TV streaming platform, announced today that Henry Ahn has been appointed to the newly-created position of chief business officer. Effective in early April, Ahn will be based in New York City and report directly to David Gandler, co-founder and CEO.
In conjunction with this appointment, Ahn will transition from his current role on fuboTV’ s board of directors. He joined fuboTV’ s board in July 2020.
As chief business officer, Ahn will oversee fuboTV’ s content strategy and licensing as well as business development. Reporting directly to Ahn will be Ben Grad, senior vice president, content strategy and acquisition, and Len Landi, senior vice president, business development.
“ Henry has served as a trusted advisor to fuboTV since joining our board of directors in 2020, ” said Gandler. “ He is a well-respected media executive whose expertise has straddled both traditional distribution and streaming television, positively impacting key growth areas for the businesses in which he’ s worked. At fubo, Henry’ s focus will be on managing our content licensing strategy and costs, working with Ben and Len who have done a great job leading our partnerships, in an effort to maximize value for our customers and shareholders as we scale our subscriber base. ”
“ I am thrilled to be working with David and the entire fuboTV team even more closely going forward, ” said Ahn. “ Ever since my involvement with fuboTV, which goes back even before I joined the board in 2020, I was impressed by David and his team, who have consistently out-delivered results in the fast growing streaming business. I look forward to working constructively with media companies, other content providers and distribution companies to continue to bring great sports and entertainment programming in an affordable manner to our fuboTV customers. ”
Previously, Ahn served as president of content distribution and partnerships for Univision Communications Inc. He joined Univision in 2018 to lead content distribution sales, operations, finance and strategy, specializing in media contract negotiations, business strategy, content licensing, new media strategy and authenticated streaming/video on-demand. He was also responsible for distribution deal execution and relationships with new and existing distributors including multichannel video programming and online video distributors, mobile carriers and electronic sell-through providers.
Prior to joining Univision, Ahn served as a distribution executive for Scripps Networks Interactive ( SNI) where he led sales, negotiations, strategic planning and marketing efforts for SNI related to every aspect of content distribution. Previously, he served as executive vice president of TV Networks Distribution at NBCUniversal, where he worked for 17 years.
About fuboTV
With a mission to build the world’ s leading global live TV streaming platform with the greatest breadth of premium content, interactivity and integrated wagering, fuboTV Inc. ( NYSE: FUBO) aims to transcend the industry’ s current TV model. fuboTV Inc. operates in the U.S., Canada, France and Spain.
Leveraging its proprietary data and technology platform optimized for live TV and sports viewership, fuboTV Inc. aims to turn passive viewers into active participants and define a new category of interactive sports and entertainment television. The company's sports-first cable TV replacement product, fuboTV, offers U.S. subscribers more than 100 live sports, news and entertainment networks and is the only live TV streaming platform with every Nielsen-rated sports channel ( source: Nielsen Total Viewers, 2021). Subscribers can interact with fuboTV’ s live streaming experience through predictive free-to-play games, which are integrated into select sports content.
Fubo Gaming Inc., a subsidiary of fuboTV Inc., launched Fubo Sportsbook, a next-generation mobile sportsbook purpose-built to integrate with fuboTV, in 2021.
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Alison Sternberg, fuboTV asternberg @ fubo.tv or ir @ fubo.tv
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Jennifer L. Press, fuboTV jpress @ fubo.tv | general |
Clinical Catch-Up: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine for Kids and Much More | Although it was relatively quiet in COVID-19-related clinical trials, there was plenty of other clinical trial news. Here’ s a look.
Moderna reported positive interim results from the Phase II/III KidCOVE trial of its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in children six months to under two years and two years to under six years of age. The data showed a “ robust neutralizing antibody response ” in both cohorts.
The doses were lower, a 25-microgram, two-shot series, than the 100 microgram doses used in adults. The immunogenicity of the 25-microgram doses was similar to those observed with the 100-microgram two-dose shots in adults 17 to 25 years. During the study period, Omicron ( BA.1) was the dominant variant in the U.S. In children six months to two years, efficacy was 43.7% and in two years to six years it was 37.5% against infection. Any infections seen were mild, with no severe cases observed. There were zero incidents of severe disease, hospitalizations or death.
Icosavax announced topline interim results from its ongoing Phase I/II trial of IVX-411 in COVID-19. The product is a vaccine candidate displaying the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain.
ImmunoGen announced positive Phase III results of mirvetuximab soravtansine alone in patients with folate receptor alpha ( FRα) -high platinum-resistant ovarian cancer in patients previously treated with Avastin ( bevacizumab). The Phase III SORAYA trial is a single-arm study of the drug in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer whose cancers expressed high levels of FRα who had been treated with one to three previous regimens, at least one of them being Avastin.
The primary endpoint was confirmed objective response rate ( ORR) evaluated by the investigator, and a key secondary endpoint was duration of response ( DOR). ORR for the study was 32.4%, including five complete responses ( CRs). ORR was 31.6%, including five CRs. The response rates were consistent no matter the number of previous lines of therapies or use of PARP inhibitors the patients had.
Vallon Pharmaceuticals announced that its Phase III SEAL trial of ADAIR for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder ( ADHD) failed to hit its primary endpoint. ADAIR is a proprietary abuse-deterrent formulation of immediate release ( IR) dextroamphetamine. Dextroamphetamine is the active ingredient used in Adderall and other FDA-approved treatments for ADHD. The primary endpoint was Emax Drug Liking. ADAIR’ s score was similar to what had been observed in an earlier proof-of-concept trial, but reference dextroamphetamine didn’ t score as high as expected and as had been observed in the previous trial. As a result, the results of the SEAL study did not hit statistical significance.
Cortexyme presented new data from the Phase II/III GAIN trial of COR388 ( atuzaginstat) to treat mild to moderate Alzheimer’ s disease. The data described target engagement data showing the drug inhibited lysine gingipains, which demonstrated a 30% to 50% slowing in cognitive decline in participants with high P. gigivalis load. It also described numerical trends in traditional Alzheimer’ s disease biomarkers, including phosphor-tau 181 and total tau.
NeuroSense Therapeutics announced the FDA had cleared its IND for PrimeC, a potential therapeutic for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis ( ALS). PrimeC is made up of ciprofloxacin, a well-known antibiotic, and celecoxib, an FDA-approved nonsteroidal ant-inflammatory. The IND is for a Phase I trial.
Zai Lab announced positive data for its Phase III PRIME trial of Zejula ( niraparib) for ovarian cancer patients who had already received platinum-based chemotherapy. Zejula is a poly ( ADP-ribose) polymerase ( PARP) inhibitor.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals announced it is halting enrollment in the Phase III RALLY trial after a futility analysis of the first 50% of patients failed to generate a statistically significant outcome in fibromyalgia patients. The drug, TNX-102 SL ( cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets), is designed to provide rapid transmucosal absorption and reduced production of a long half-life active metabolite, norcyclobenzaprine.
Cali Biosciences offered successful results in its Phase IIb trial of CPL-01, a perioperative long-acting analgesic, injectable version of Naropin ( ropivacaine hydrochloride). It is being evaluated to treat post-operative surgical pain. It reported an excellent dose-response for efficacy.
uniQure completed patient enrollment in the first two cohorts of its Phase I/II trial of AMT-130 for Huntington’ s disease. The treated patients have received a single administration of AMT-130 using MRI-guided, convection-enhanced stereotactic neurosurgical delivery directly into the striatum ( caudate and putamen). AMT-130 is made up of a recombinant AAV5 vector carrying a DNA cassette encoding a microRNA that lowers Huntingtin protein in Huntington’ s disease patients.
KemPharm completed an analysis of the full data set from its Phase I study of serdexmethylphenidate ( SDX) delivered at higher doses than those previously studied. SDX is the company’ s prodrug of d-methylphenidate ( d-MPH) for idiopathic hypersomnia ( IH).
Turning Point Therapeutics hit its enrollment target of 40 patients for the EXP-6 cohort of the Phase I/II registrational TRIDENT-1 study for NTRK-positive TKI-pretreated advanced solid tumor patients. EXP-6 ( reprotrectinib) is a next-generation kinase inhibitor targeting the ROS1 and TRK oncogenic drivers of NSCLC and advanced solid tumors.
Aligos Therapeutics halted the development of ALG-020572, which was being developed in patients with chronic hepatitis B ( CHB). The first CHB cohort of Study ALG-020572-401 was stopped after one of the patients had a serious adverse event ( SAE), causing a brief hospitalization. The patient showed a significant increase in alanine aminotransferase ( ALT) after multiple dosing of 210 mg of the therapy. They noted that this was just one of four CHB subjects in the cohort to have the potentially drug-related ALT flares indicative of liver toxicity, which they were not expecting based on nonclinical research and Phase I studies in healthy volunteers. ALG-020572 is a GalNAc-conjugated antisense oligonucleotide ( ASO).
Phanes Therapeutics announced the FDA cleared it to launch a Phase I trial of PT199 in advanced solid tumors. PT199 is a next-generation monoclonal antibody against CD73.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced it was advancing its VX-147 into pivotal development for proteinuric kidney disease mediated by two mutations in the APOL1 gene ( AMKD). The primary endpoint is a reduction in the rate of decline of kidney function as measured by the estimated glomerular filtration rate ( eGFR) slope versus placebo at approximately two years.
Visus Therapeutics launched the first of two pivotal Phase III Trials for Brimochol PF for presbyopia. Presbyopia is loss of near vision associated with aging. The drug is designed to produce a “ pinhole effect ” that reduces the size of the pupil and allows the light rays focused on the retina to enter the eye, sharpening vision.
Plus Therapeutics dosed the first patient in the ReSPECT-LM Phase I/IIa trial of Rhenium-186 NanoLiposomem for leptomeningeal metastases ( LM). The drug is a proprietary nanoscale compound with a unique chelated radioisotope administered locally as a single dose via a conventional Ommaya reservoir.
Pfizer reported that etrasimod hit the market in the Phase III ulcerative colitis ELEVATE 12 study. The drug is an oral selective sphingosine 1-phosphatase ( S1P) receptor modulator. It demonstrated statistically significant improvements in clinical remission after 12 weeks, as well as statistically significant improvements in all key secondary endpoints.
Argenx shared positive topline data from its ongoing Phase III ADAPT-SC trial of efgartigimod ( Vyvgart) in generalized myasthenia gravis ( gMG). It hit the primary endpoint of total IgG reduction from baseline on the 29th day of observation. It is a subcutaneous formulation made with Halozyme’ s ENHANZE drug delivery technology recombinant human hyaluronidase PH20.
4D Pharma reported results from its Phase I/II trial of MRx0518 in combination with Merck’ s Keytruda ( pembrolizumab) in renal cell carcinoma ( RCC). They were positive interim results. MRx0518 is made up of orally delivered single strains of bacteria derived from healthy human guts. Keytruda is Merck’ s anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor.
NovoCure announced the results of a pre-specified interim analysis of the Phase III INNOVATE-3 trial of Tumor Treating Fields ( TTFields) with paclitaxel for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. The independent DMC recommended the continuation of the trial.
Rezolute announced positive data from its Phase IIb RIZE trial of RZ358 in congenital hyperinsulinism. RZ358 is a human monoclonal antibody that binds to a unique site on insulin receptors in the liver, fat and muscle, counteracting the effects of increased insulin.
PharmaTher announced positive topline data from the dose-finding and tolerability study of ketamine for levodopa-induced dyskinesia in Parkinson’ s disease. The results are adequate to give an effective size in powering a Phase III trial.
Pluristem released Phase I results of PLX-R18 in patients with incomplete hematopoietic recovery following hematopoietic cell transplantation ( HCT). The drug was well-tolerated, and patients receiving the drug demonstrated an increase in all three blood cell types compared to baseline.
AstraZeneca reported that its Phase III CALLA study of Imfinzi ( durvalumab) with chemoradiotherapy ( CRT) failed to hit the primary endpoint in locally advanced cervical cancer. The primary endpoint was an improvement in progression-free survival versus CRT alone.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals dosed the first patient in its Phase II EMERGE-201 trial of Zepzelca ( lurbinectedin) as a monotherapy in urothelial carcinoma, large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the lung and homologous recombination deficient ( HRD) tumors. Zepzelca is an alkylating agent that binds guanine receptors within DNA.
Oncolytics Biotech announced that its partner Adlai Nortye advanced to the third and final dose escalation cohort of the bridging clinical trial of pelareorep-paclitaxel combination therapy in Chinese patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer. Pelareorep is an intravenous immunotherapeutic that induces anti-cancer immune responses and promotes an inflamed tumor phenotype via innate and adaptive immune responses.
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is proceeding with a global Phase II trial of sonelokimab in moderate-to-severe hidradenitis suppurativa. The drug is an investigational Nanobody designed to treat inflammatory disease by inhibiting IL-17A/A, IL-17A/F, and IL-17F/F dimers that drive inflammation.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries presented data from two pivotal Phase III trial of Winlevi ( clascoterone) cream 1% for topical treatment of acne vulgaris ( acne). The results for safety and efficacy were favorable in patients 12 years and older.
Morphic Therapeutic initiated the EMERALD1 Phase IIa trial of MORF-057 in moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. MORF-057 is a potent and selective oral small molecule inhibitor of the alpha 4 beta 7 integrin.
LEO Pharma announced up to 3.5-year data that further support the long-term safety and efficacy of Adbry ( tralokinumab-ldrm) in adults with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis ( AD). Adbry is a high-affinity human monoclonal antibody to IL-13.
Nimbus Therapeutics presented data from the Phase Ib trial of NDI-034858 in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The drug is an investigational oral allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 ( TYK2) inhibitor. The data indicated improvement across multiple measures of disease pathology.
Dermavant Sciences presented new data from the Phase III PSOARING 3 long-term extension study of tapinarof cream for plaque psoriasis in adults. Tapinarof is a novel, non-steroidal, once-daily therapeutic aryl hydrocarbon receptor modulating agent. | general |
American Pharmacists Association Applauds Bipartisan Federal Legislation to Combat COVID-19, Improve Patient Equity, and Respond to Future Public Health Threats | New Bill Will Ensure Patient Access to Essential Care and Services by Pharmacists
WASHINGTON -- ( BUSINESS WIRE) -- To ensure Medicare patients can continue to access essential care and services provided by pharmacists, the American Pharmacists Association, a lead partner in the Future of Pharmacy Care Coalition, strongly supports the Equitable Community Access to Pharmacist Services Act ( ECAPS) ( H.R. 7213), which was introduced by Congressman Ron Kind ( D-WI), Congressman David B. McKinley ( R-WV), Congresswoman Nanette Diaz Barragán ( D-CA), and Congressman Buddy Carter ( R-GA).
This legislation will ensure patients continue to have access to essential pandemic and pandemic-related care services provided by pharmacists, including services to keep communities safe from COVID-19 and future public health crises.
“ During the pandemic, it is clear that pharmacists, as accessible health care professionals for COVID-19 testing, treatment, and immunization, stepped up to provide critical care, ” said Scott Knoer, MS, PharmD, FASHP, APhA executive vice president and CEO. “ This legislation will cement pharmacists’ role in delivering this essential care after the pandemic and in future public health emergencies. ”
According to CDC, pharmacists administered more than 229 million COVID-19 vaccine doses in the U.S. as of February 9, 2022. The proposed bill underscores the importance of pharmacists’ services related to the COVID-19 pandemic and other illnesses, including
Provisions of ECAPS also protect patients by ensuring pharmacists can continue to safeguard our nation’ s communities against future public health threats. This legislation also establishes Medicare coverage and payment for new pharmacy- and pharmacist-provided services in the case of public health emergencies as determined by HHS.
Additionally, pharmacists are often the first line of defense for rural Americans. According to the U.S. Board of Labor Statistics, 55 percent of pharmacists work in a community-based setting, and 45 percent of pharmacy COVID-19 vaccination sites were reported to be in areas with moderate to severe social vulnerability.
“ Pharmacists have been essential providers in rural and underserved communities during this pandemic, providing essential care and services where they are the only accessible health care provider, ” said Theresa Tolle, BSPharm, FAPhA, and APhA president, 2022–2023. “ This legislation will ensure that millions of patients in communities across the country will continue to receive health care services from pharmacists, alleviating gaps in patient care and advancing health equity. ”
Future of Pharmacy Care Coalition members joining APhA in supporting this legislation include
About APhA
APhA is the only organization advancing the entire pharmacy profession. Our expert staff and strong volunteer leadership, including many experienced pharmacists, allow us to deliver vital leadership to help pharmacists, pharmaceutical scientists, student pharmacists, and pharmacy technicians find success and satisfaction in their work and advocate for changes that benefit them, their patients, and their communities. For more information, please visit www.pharmacist.com. | general |
COVID-19 infection linked to higher risk of neuropathy: Symptoms persisted for months after a positive test for COVID-19 -- ScienceDaily | In a study of more than 1,500 people who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 during the first year of the pandemic, the researchers found that those who tested positive for the virus were about three times more likely to report pain, numbness or tingling in their hands and feet as those with negative tests.
The findings are reported online March 24 in the journal Pain.
`` Several viral infections -- such as HIV and shingles -- are associated with peripheral neuropathy because viruses can damage nerves, '' said senior investigator Simon Haroutounian, PhD, chief of clinical research at the Washington University Pain Center. `` We found that nearly 30% of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 also reported neuropathy problems at the time of their diagnosis, and that for 6% to 7% of them, the symptoms persisted for at least two weeks, and up to three months, suggesting this virus may have lingering effects on peripheral nerves. ''
Haroutounian, who also is an associate professor of anesthesiology and director of the department's Division of Clinical and Translational Research, said some patients who traced the start of their neuropathy symptoms to a COVID-19 infection have sought treatment at the Washington University Pain Center. Most of those in the study, however, reported problems that were rated as mild to moderate and may not have sought help from a pain specialist.
`` It is important to understand whether a viral infection is associated with an increased risk of neuropathy, '' he said. `` In the case of HIV, we didn't realize it was causing neuropathy for several years after the AIDS epidemic began. Consequently, many people went undiagnosed with neuropathy and untreated for the pain associated with the problem. ''
He said the same may be true now for patients with neuropathy following COVID-19. There is no established diagnosis of neuropathy related to COVID-19, but Haroutounian explained that, regardless of the cause, current treatments for neuropathy are somewhat similar. Pain specialists use the same types of medications to treat peripheral neuropathy, whether it's caused by diabetes or HIV or the cause is unclear.
`` There is a high likelihood we could still help these patients, even though at the moment there are not clear diagnostic criteria or even a recognized syndrome known as COVID peripheral neuropathy, '' he said.
The research team surveyed patients who were tested for COVID-19 on the Washington University Medical Campus from March 16, 2020, through Jan. 12, 2021. Of the 1,556 study participants, 542 had positive COVID-19 tests, and 1,014 tested negative.
Many of those who tested negative were tested because they were undergoing surgery or were already hospitalized with cancer, diabetes or other health problems, Haroutounian said. Because of those existing health problems, many who tested negative already experienced chronic pain and neuropathy unrelated to COVID-19, he said.
Study patients who tested positive tended to be healthier and younger, and 29% reported symptoms of neuropathy at the time of their diagnosis. That compared to neuropathy problems in about 13% of the participants who tended to have health challenges but tested negative for COVID-19. He said this finding strengthens the possibility that the virus may be involved in causing symptoms of peripheral neuropathy.
Because the study was conducted at a single center, Haroutounian said more research will be needed to replicate the findings. In addition, much of the data was gathered when outpatient clinical research had been halted due to the pandemic, meaning that study patients were evaluated according to their responses to a survey rather than via in-person interviews and physical exams.
`` We also finished our data collection before vaccinations became widespread and before the delta or omicron variants arrived, and it's difficult to say what effects those variables may have, '' he said. `` So we want to follow up with some of those patients who have lingering nerve symptoms and learn about what is causing their pain so that we can better diagnose and treat these patients moving forward. ''
This work is supported by the National Cancer Institute, and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health ( NIH). Grant numbers UL1 TR000448 and P30 CA091842, an NCI Cancer Center Support Grant awarded to the Siteman Comprehensive Cancer Center. | science |
Icosavax Shares Crater as COVID-19 Vaccine Disappoints | Seattle-based Icosavax’ s stock plunged 50% after the company reported topline interim data from its ongoing Phase I/II COVID-19 vaccine trial.
The safety of the company’ s virus-like particles ( VLP) vaccine seemed fine, with any local and systemic adverse events being mild or moderate. The most common side effects were injection site tenderness, headache and fatigue, with no serious adverse events.
It was around immunogenicity that the vaccine seemed to disappoint. Although there was a clear adjuvant effect — a compound added to the vaccine to further stimulate the nervous system — and there was a dose-response, the immune response seen in this interim analysis was comparable or even below the Human Convalescent Sera ( HCS) control.
That is to say, people who had been infected with COVID-19 had a better immune response than people who had received the Icosavax vaccine. This is a lower efficacy compared to the mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech. At day 49 after the second dose, immune responses were up to 154 IU/mL across dosage groups in the company’ s live virus neutralization assay and up to 592 BAU/mL across all groups in the spike IgG assay.
The data in people who had been previously vaccinated demonstrated the vaccine increased immunity after the primary vaccination with an mRNA or adenovirus vaccine. The groups with the adjuvant and without the adjuvant were generally alike.
“ While IVX-411 was immunogenic and well-tolerated in these initial topline data, the level of response was below our expectations given what we know about VLPs, including from clinical studies in COVID-19 and from our own preclinical data, ” said Dr. Niranjan Kanesa-thasan, Icosavax’ s chief medical officer.
Adam Simpson, the company’ s chief executive officer, assured investors that the company was committed to its VLP platform and its efforts and “ vision ” for combination and pan-respiratory vaccines.
“ We plan to investigate the potential causes of these discordant clinical results, including manufacture, shipment, and administration of the product, ” Simpson said. “ As COVID-19 becomes endemic, it continues to be a strategic priority for Icosavax. With regard to our lead program in RSV, we look forward to sharing topline, interim data for IVX-121 in 2Q 2022, with the Phase I initiation of our first combination vaccine candidate, IVX-A12 against RSV and human metapneumovirus ( hMPV), anticipated in 2H 2022. ”
Icosavax’ s VLP platform technology allows for multivalent, particle-based display of complex viral antigens. This is believed to induce broad, robust and durable protection against which viruses are targeted. In addition to vaccines for COVID-19, RSV and hMPV, it has an emerging program in influenza.
Icosavax was established in 2017 based on VLP technology from the Institute for Protein Design at the University of Washington.
In its January 7 pipeline update, the company noted it had exercised its option for a non-exclusive patent license granted by the University of Washington and the Department of Health and Human Services ( HHS) for use with its VLP platform. As of December 21, 2021, the company had $ 281 million in cash, which it expected to fund operations to at least 2024.
Icosavax went public in June 2021 and raised more than $ 180 million.
Investors were initially excited about the company’ s platform because the vaccines are designed to target a part of the virus that is less likely to mutate. The rapid stock drop suggests investors are now wary of the company’ s entire technology platform, not just the COVID-19 vaccine, which would have had to display dazzling results to compete in an increasingly crowded marketplace. However, there’ s quite a bit riding on the value of the company’ s RSV and hMPV programs.
In a November 2020 interview with BioSpace, Simpson said, “ Our VLP technology should also have the advantages of scalable manufacturing, easily maintainable temperatures in the supply chain and, we expect, sustained durability. ” | general |
A Bone-afied Discovery: Researchers Develop Universal Skeleton Key for Druggable Targets | Many drugs work by matching up to a pocket or molecular receptor on a protein, like a key into a lock. Some proteins have been dubbed “ undruggable ” because no obvious pocket or receptor has yet been found. Now, Dr. David Baker from the University of Washington may have found a kind of “ skeleton key ” to fit all locks — specifically, he created an algorithm to design “ keys ” to unlock these proteins. Baker and his team published their research in the journal Nature.
The authors wrote, “ The design of proteins that bind to a specific site on the surface of a target protein using no information other than the three-dimensional structure of the target remains an outstanding challenge. We describe a general solution to this problem which starts with a broad exploration of the very large space of possible binding modes to a selected region of a protein surface, and then intensifies the search in the vicinity of the most promising binding modes. ”
They then tested this by designing binding proteins for 12 diverse protein targets with multiple different shapes and surfaces. All of the binders were smaller than 65 amino acids, were “ hyperstable ” and after experimental optimization, bound to their targets “ with nanomolar to picomolar affinities. ” They analyzed the crystal structures of five of the binder-target complexes and found that all five “ were very close to the corresponding computational design models. ”
They screened almost half a million candidate binder structures for the 12 protein targets. The algorithm highlighted possible hits, as well as a so-called “ cheat code ” that makes binders more efficient at attaching onto the targets.
One of the most significant aspects of this was that the software used only the structure of the target protein to design binder keys.
“ The ability to generate new proteins that bind tightly and specifically to any molecular target that you want is a paradigm shift in drug development and molecular biology more broadly, ” Baker said.
Previous computational approaches to finding pockets and designing molecules that fit into them exist, but they tend to have very high computational demands. It also often requires knowledge about known protein structures, which is not always available. Another approach is to search for hot spots on a target protein, but these hot spots aren’ t always available or accessible to binders.
Baker’ s team describes it as being like rock climbers attempting to climb a new wall. The climbers are binders, the wall is the surface of the target protein. By looking, they can see a lot of potential hand and footholds — in the case of proteins, side chains and protein pockets. But the biggest ones, the so-called “ hot spots, ” aren’ t always capable of holding the climber for the entire pathway.
So, their software maps out all of the holds, even if they’ re not necessarily good places for binders to latch onto. This provides a broad range of potential binding sites, most of which will fail, but some might work very well. A subset of these spots is then “ challenged ” by thousands of binders that attempt to find a promising route. Once the best pathways are identified, more binders will evaluate the pathways in detail.
“ Following this analogy, we devised a multi-step approach to overcome ” previous challenge, Baker’ s team said.
The team’ s protein structure and function mapping program is called Rosetta. It depends upon “ traditional physics, according to Dr. Lance Stewart, chief strategy and operations officer at the Institute for Protein Design, where Dr. Baker’ s laboratory is headquartered, instead of machine learning or deep learning powers.
It all sounded good on the computer, but they needed to test it in the real world. That’ s where the 12 proteins came into play. Among the proteins tested, they were involved in cancer, insulin ( diabetes), and aging. They also ran tests on surface proteins on the COVID-19 virus and influenza viruses. With astounding success. | general |
Novavax May Find COVID-19 Sweet Spot as a Booster | Novavax announced today that its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, is included in two new clinical trials that are now underway. The trials will evaluate the vaccine as a potential booster for COVID-19 in three key areas: safety, immunogenicity and reactogenicity.
Both studies have already begun to initiate enrollment. If the trials are successful, they will not only show how Novavax’ s vaccine can be used as a booster but also open the door for other vaccines to be used as boosters after primary immunization.
This news comes one month after the company announced positive data from Phase III of its PREVENT-19 trial, which studied the effects of its vaccine in adolescents aged 12 to 17 years old in the United States. The vaccine achieved an 80% overall efficacy and was conducted when the SARS-CoV-2's Delta variant was the predominant strain.
Though the new trials announced involve the use of the same vaccine, they will only include adult participants. One of the studies, sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases ( NIAID), is an ongoing Phase I/II trial aimed to assess boosting regiments in people who received a previous series of an Emergency Use Authorization or Food and Drug Administration ( FDA) -approved Covid-19 vaccine.
Participants will either be given a dose of NVX-CoV2373 or a third dose of the same vaccine they’ ve already received. Novavax plans to enroll about 1,130 healthy adults, and approximately 180 of those participants will receive NVX-CoV2373.
The participants will then be monitored for one full year. Novavax expects to announce top-line results later this year and full results in 2023.
The second trial is a Phase III study in the United Arab Emirates. It will only include participants who have been previously vaccinated with Sinopharm's COVID-19 vaccine and will assess the safety and immunogenicity of a single booster dose of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine. The Ministry of Health and Prevention approved NVX-CoV2373 for emergency use in the UAE in December.
Novavax plans to enroll about 1,000 adults who will then be monitored for six months. The company expects to report full results during the fourth quarter of 2022.
Filip Dubovsky, M.D., chief medical officer at Novavax, said he is looking forward to the results of the trials. | general |
What Happens to Your ETFs if Chinese Stocks Delist? | The SEC has singled out Yum China, four others for potential delisting in 2024 over accounting standards.
Chinese stocks have been on a roller coaster ride, taking exchange-traded funds with big holdings of those names along with them.
Earlier in March, the Hang Seng Index plunged more than 20% from where it started 2022, hitting a six-year low, and the Hang Seng Tech Index collapsed by as much as 40%. The broad-based Morningstar China Index fell 28.5% over the same period.
Worries about the impact of coronavirus lockdowns in China were one major reason behind the selloff. Another was a growing conflict between U.S. and Chinese regulators, as the Securities and Exchange Commission warned it was closer to ordering the delisting of shares in five China-based companies that trade on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, if those companies don’ t meet tougher accounting and disclosure rules. These listings are known as American depository receipts, or ADRs.
The ride wasn’ t over, however. As opportunistic investors started to bottom-fish among beaten-up shares, Chinese state media hinted at government support in progressing toward a cooperation plan with U.S. regulators. That sparked a sharp rebound with major Chinese tech firms in Hong Kong markets recording gains of as much as 30% in a single day.
Even after the rebound, investors in many China-heavy ETFs are still facing big losses. The ADR-heavy, $ 212 million Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF ( PGJ) is down 9.4% for the year to date, after plunging 42.8% in 2021. The $ 6.3 billion KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF ( KWEB), which mimics an index focused on Chinese tech firms listed overseas, also delivered a similar return profile, falling 8.0% so far in 2022 and near 50% in 2021. The broad-based iShares MSCI China ETF ( MCHI) has registered a 6.4% drop.
At the same time, the delisting threat lingers. The first batch of five firms cited by the SEC will have until the end of March to show proof of audit compliance, or else they will have to delist from the New York bourse by 2024. The stocks in the spotlight: fast-food chain operator Yum China ( YUMC), wafer processing solution provider ACM Research ( ACMR), and bio-pharma firms BeiGene ( BGNE), Zai Lab ( ZLAB), and HutchMed ( HCM), which is a biopharmaceutical producing arm under Hong Kong’ s CK Hutchison ( CKHUF).
“ We expect more Chinese ADRs to be included in the Provisional List over the next few weeks, ” says Ivan Su, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. As the companies publish their annual reports, the SEC will be scrutinizing the company filing for compliance with the new results.
According to Morningstar Direct data, in the $ 37 billion China equity ETF market in the United States, 16% of assets are ADRs and 5% of those assets buy into Chinese names that are currently listed on U.S. bourses only.
Across global ETF products, PGJ is a Chinese ADR-focused portfolio, and the $ 6.3 billion KWEB has held 50% of its assets in Chinese ADRs.
In terms of the five stocks highlighted by the SEC as already at risk of delisting, MCHI, which has $ 6.4 billion under management, is the largest holder of the batch in dollar terms as of Feb. 28. Chinese ADRs owned by MCHI totaled $ 76.4 million but only account for about 1.6% of its assets.
When it comes to impact by portfolio weighting, since BeiGene, HutchMed, and Zai Lab land in the healthcare sector, the largest owners tilt toward thematic funds. For example, Global X MSCI China Health Care ETF ( CHIH) is among the top owners of BeiGene ( a 5.9% weight), HutchMed ( 1.8%), and Zai Lab ( 2.7%) out of its assets under management. For Yum China, Global X MSCI China Consumer Disc ETF ( CHIQ) and KraneShares MSCI China ESG Leaders ETF ( KESG) top all other ETFs by owning 4.1% and 2.6% of the fast-food chain's shares in their portfolios, respectively.
Among other widely held China ADRs is search engine provider Baidu ( BIDU), owned by ETFs with more than $ 750 million in total assets. E-commerce platforms Alibaba Group ( BABA), JD.com ( JD), and Pinduoduo ( PDD) also are common holdings.
Aside from the volatility in the market, there shouldn’ t be significant implications for ETF shareholders, says Lorraine Tan, Morningstar's director of equity research, Asia. Tan points to the delisting of CNOOC, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation ( 00883), in December 2001 as an example.
“ There is a set process that funds will have to refer to if this should happen, ” Tan says. For companies that have a listing elsewhere, most commonly in Hong Kong, even if delisting occurs, funds can convert U.S. shares into Hong Kong shares. The delisting procedure itself would pass on no fundamental implications, thus their valuations should remain the same.
Tan notes that there is a fee to the funds involved, but it is not one that poses a significant cost to shareholders. In CNOOC’ s case, the conversion into shares listed in Hong Kong cost funds $ 5 per 100 ADRs.
Tan continues: “ The alternative is to sell [ the ADRs ] and buy the Hong Kong shares if the investor wants to retain their holdings and prefers not to wait for the mandatory conversion period. In the meantime, we should expect more notices from the SEC to the companies with China businesses listed in the U.S. ”
Jackie Choy, Morningstar's director of ETF research, Asia, says an ETF would simply mirror changes in the indexes that result from the delisting: “ In the case that a company only has an ADR listing, closer to the delisting date, such delisting would be reflected in the index. Hence, the ETF would be selling out the positions.’’
Some fund companies are getting ahead of any potential delisting.
KWEB’ s manager KraneShares, which has $ 6.9 billion under management, announced March 11 it would progress to a full transition of holding the Hong Kong listings. “ We believe a compromise between the U.S. and Chinese regulators is still attainable, but we are converting our ADR holdings to Hong Kong shares because we believe doing so is in the best interest of our clients, ” the firm said. KraneShares expects the portfolio to be composed of solely Hong Kong listings by the end of 2022, driven by continued U.S. ADR conversion and relistings in Hong Kong.
Still, investors should keep an eye on developments around the delisting threat, says Choy: “ In ETF investments, it is important to understand what the index consists of. This drives the portfolio itself, which in turn drives the performance profile of the ETF. ”
Kate Lin does not own ( actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’ s editorial policies.
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United States: Child Protection and Welfare Technical Specialist ( US Programs) | Church World Service ( CWS) is a not-for-profit, faith-based organization transforming communities around the globe through just and sustainable solutions to hunger, poverty, displacement, and disaster. CWS does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, gender identity, genetic information, age, disability, or veteran status in employment or in the provision of services.
CWS seeks a Child Protection and Welfare Specialist to provide technical assistance in CWS’ s programs serving refugees, asylum seekers, and other vulnerable communities in the United States. The Child Protection and Welfare Specialist supports programs teams to ensure that protection and welfare mechanisms are effectively and systematically considered and applied to all relevant dimensions of CWS programming, including mitigating the risk of violence, abuse, and exploitation across programs. This position is responsible for providing evidence-based technical guidance to various teams in a goal-oriented manner that delivers excellent results and expands CWS’ s protection work.
The Child Protection and Welfare Specialist will work closely with CWS’ s US National Programs teams and will report directly to the Senior Director of Migrant and Emergency Services. The position may also support program components related to mental health and psychosocial support ( MHPSS), and protection from sexual exploitation and abuse ( PSEA).
All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, gender identity, genetic information, disability or protected veteran status.
CWS’ U.S. COVID-19 Vaccination Policy requires all new staff to provide proof of COVID-19 vaccination as soon as reasonable, no longer than 60 days of employment. Any employee who is pregnant, who is nursing, who has a disability, or who has a medical condition that prevents them from safe vaccination, or who rejects vaccination because of sincerely held religious beliefs, may contact the CWS Benefits Administrator to request reasonable accommodation as defined by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ( EEOC).
Please apply via our career site through this link: CWS Careers ( vibehcm.com)
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New type of ultraviolet light makes indoor air as safe as outdoors: Using far-UVC light in places where people gather indoors could help prevent the next pandemic -- ScienceDaily | The study suggests that far-UVC light from lamps installed in the ceiling could be a highly effective passive technology for reducing person-to-person transmission of airborne-mediated diseases such as COVID and influenza indoors, and lowering the risk of the next pandemic.
`` Far-UVC rapidly reduces the amount of active microbes in the indoor air to almost zero, making indoor air essentially as safe as outdoor air, '' says David Brenner, PhD, director of the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons and co-author of the study. `` Using this technology in locations where people gather together indoors could prevent the next potential pandemic. ''
The study was published March 23 in the journal Scientific Reports, a Nature journal.
`` Far-UVC light is simple to install, it's inexpensive, it doesn't need people to change their behavior, and above all it's a safe way to prevent the transmission of any virus, including the COVID virus and its variants, as well as influenza and also any potential future pandemic viruses, '' Brenner says.
What is far-UVC light?
Disinfecting indoor air with far-UVC light is a new approach to safely and efficiently destroy airborne viruses in occupied spaces, including the viruses that cause COVID and influenza.
Scientists have known for decades that a type of ultraviolet light known as UVC light rapidly kills microbes, including bacteria and viruses. But conventional germicidal UVC light can not be used directly to destroy airborne viruses in occupied indoor spaces because it is a potential health hazard to the skin and eyes.
About a decade ago, Columbia University scientists proposed that a different type of UVC light, known as far-UVC light, would be just as efficient at destroying bacteria and viruses but without the safety concerns of conventional germicidal UVC.
Far-UVC light is safe for people because it has a shorter wavelength than conventional germicidal UVC, so it can't penetrate into living human skin cells or eye cells. But it is equally efficient at killing bacteria and viruses, which are much smaller than human cells.
In the past decade, many studies around the world have shown that far-UVC is both efficient at destroying airborne bacteria and viruses and safe for use around people. But until now these studies had only been conducted in small experimental chambers, not in full-sized rooms mimicking real-world conditions.
New study shows far-UVC is highly effective in real room environment
In the current study, scientists at the University of St. Andrews, University of Dundee, University of Leeds, and Columbia University tested the efficacy of far-UVC light in a large room-sized chamber with the same ventilation rate as a typical home or office ( about three air changes per hour).
During the experiment, a sprayer continuously emitted an aerosol mist of S. aureus bacteria into the room. ( This microbe was chosen because it is slightly less sensitive to far-UVC light than coronaviruses, providing the researchers with an appropriately conservative model.) When the concentration of microbes in the room stabilized, the researchers turned on commercially available overhead far-UVC lamps.
At an intensity based on the current regulatory limit on far-UVC light exposure, set by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists, the far-UVC lamps inactivated more than 98% of the airborne microbes in just five minutes. The low level of viable microbes was maintained over time, even though microbes continued to be sprayed into the room.
The efficacy of different approaches to reducing indoor virus levels is usually measured in terms of equivalent air changes per hour. In this study, far-UVC lamps produced the equivalent of 184 equivalent air exchanges per hour. This surpasses any other approach to disinfecting occupied indoor spaces, where five to 20 equivalent air changes per hour is the best that can be achieved practically.
`` Our trials produced spectacular results, far exceeding what is possible with ventilation alone, '' says Kenneth Wood, PhD, lecturer in the School of Physics and Astronomy at the University of St. Andrews and senior author of the study. `` In terms of preventing airborne disease transmission, far-UVC lights could make indoor places as safe as being outside on the golf course on a breezy day at St. Andrews. ''
Far-UVC light is variant-proof
`` Previous studies have shown that far-UVC light can kill the COVID virus, other human coronaviruses, influenza, and drug-resistant bacteria, '' Brenner says. `` What's particularly attractive about far-UVC technology as a practical method of preventing indoor disease transmission is that it will be equally good at inactivating all future COVID variants, as well as new infectious viruses that have yet to emerge, while retaining efficacy against 'old fashioned ' viruses like influenza and measles. ''
Finally, because of the way ultraviolet light kills microbes, viruses and bacteria can not develop resistance as they do with vaccines and drug treatments.
More information
The study, titled `` Far-UVC ( 222 nm) efficiently inactivates an airborne pathogen in a room-sized chamber, '' was published in Scientific Reports on March 23.
The authors are Ewan Eadie ( Ninewells Hospital, Dundee, Scotland), Waseem Hiwar ( University of Leeds, England), Louise Fletcher ( University of Leeds), Emma Tidswell ( University of Leeds), Paul O'Mahoney ( University of Dundee), Manuela Buonanno ( Columbia University), David Welch ( Columbia University), Catherine Adamson ( St. Andrews University, Scotland), David Brenner ( Columbia University), Catherine Noakes ( University of Leeds), and Kenneth Woods ( University of St. Andrews).
The study was supported by grants from the U.K. Health Security Agency.
David J. Brenner and co-inventors have been granted a U.S. patent titled `` Apparatus, method and system for selectively affecting and/or killing a virus '' ( US1078019B2). Columbia University has licensed aspects of filtered UV light technology to USHIO Inc. and has received a research gift from LumenLabs, a company producing far-UVC sources. Other disclosures are noted in the paper. | science |
From Cold War to Hot Peace by Slavoj Žižek | In a world shaped by the iron logic of markets and national interests, Vladimir Putin's atavistic war of conquest has mystified the `` deep '' strategists of realpolitik. Their mistake was to forget that under global capitalism, cultural, ethnic, and religious conflicts are the only forms of political struggle left.
LJUBLJANA – With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are entering a new phase of warfare and global politics. Aside from a heightened risk of nuclear catastrophe, we are already in a perfect storm of mutually reinforcing global crises – the pandemic, climate change, biodiversity loss, and food and water shortages. The situation exhibits a basic madness: at a time when humanity’ s very survival is jeopardized by ecological ( and other) factors, and when addressing those threats should be prioritized over everything else, our primary concern has suddenly shifted – again – to a new political crisis. Just when global cooperation is needed more than ever, the “ clash of civilizations ” returns with a vengeance.
Why does this happen? As is often the case, a little Hegel can go a long way toward answering such questions. In the Phenomenology of Spirit, Hegel famously describes the dialectic of master and servant, two “ self-consciousnesses ” locked in a life-or-death struggle. If each is ready to risk his own life to win, and if both persist in this, there is no winner: one dies, and the survivor no longer has anyone to recognize his own existence. The implication is that all of history and culture rest on a foundational compromise: in the eye-to-eye confrontation, one side ( the future servant) “ averts its eyes, ” unwilling to go to the end.
But Hegel would hasten to note that there can be no final or lasting compromise between states. Relationships between sovereign nation-states are permanently under the shadow of potential war, with each epoch of peace being nothing more than a temporary armistice. Each state disciplines and educates its own members and guarantees civic peace among them, and this process produces an ethic that ultimately demands acts of heroism – a readiness to sacrifice one’ s life for one’ s country. The wild, barbarian relations between states thus serve as the foundation of the ethical life within states.
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Slavoj Žižek, Professor of Philosophy at the European Graduate School, is International Director of the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities at the University of London and the author, most recently, of Heaven in Disorder ( OR Books, 2021).
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A careful analysis of Slavoj Žižek’ s article “ From Cold War to Hot Peace ” reveals that there is a resolution possible of the current world hostilities.Since it is the unfairness of the Capitalist New World Order controlled by the US that has driven the world past Modernism ( Rationalism), wherein the First and Highest Priority is Peace, to Post-Modernism ( violent clashes again between cultures, classes and ideologies), making the Capitalist New World Order FAIR, through refusal by its controllers ( US/West) to weaponize its power to sanction and thus destroy the economies of its enemies, could end the current Post-Modern rejection of peace as priority and allow a return to Rationalism/Modernism.At the end of the article, Slavoj Žižek says: “ Within this limited horizon, it is true that the only alternative to war is a peaceful coexistence of civilizations ( of different “ truths, ” as Dugin put it, or, to use a more popular term today, of different “ ways of life ”).Žižek’ s conclusion is similar to the underlying philosophy of the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, and we may be able to accomplish such a peace, but only after the Sino-Russian Alliances can become convinced that a Liberal Capitalist New World Order does not disparage against them.To return to Modernism/Rationalism/Peace, therefore, it is mandatory that the US/West first stop using their economic power as a weapon by sanctioning/destroying their enemies through economic depravity.The sequence of events to return the World from the current [ Post-Modern ] “ Anarcho-Capitalism ” and its constant internal revolutions/international wars to Rationalism/Peace/Modernism is firstly to make the Liberal Capitalist Global FAIR.That means it up to the US Capitalists to first find an alternative to economic sanctions to enforce their will, and to compromise in order to make their Liberal Capitalist New World Order a fair system under which all can live peaceably.Given the above understanding we must agree with Russia and China that economic sanctions by the US ( weaponizing their economic power) is tantamount, if not equal to, military aggression, and that the US must end economic sanctions if there is to be military peace.
I agree. The notion of a `` clash of civilizations '' is so divisive.
The sooner we recognize that we must substitute a war on climate change ( and its correlation, a war on `` capitalist anarchy '' -- that is the centrality of `` markets '') for the age-old clash of civilizations, the greater the change of humanity's survival -- now growing more problematic by the day).
Interesting but the author sidesteps the question with the self-inflicted weakness of the West through exaggerated attention to ” climate threats ” and the subsequent dangerous energy politics. Wrong focus mildly speaking. Dangerous is also the belief that soft diplomacy and trading solves all security issues.The best strategy of the West is still a self-critical attitude.
Another “ philosopher ” trapped in the labyrinth without way out, as all others since existence of humans. Long term possible solution: Try teach new-born babies across the globe: Self-Criticism; Solidarity on the formula: His/Her happiness=My Happiness?
The 'liberal-capitalist and free ' western bloc thinks it should instead partition world commerce and science, and inflame proxy wars on the trade routes of its rivals. A nativist, Trump, initiated reversal of 70 years of integrating world commerce to instead partition commerce and science into western and chinese spheres with sanctions, tariffs, trade, finance, and communications bans, and now divestiture. A creative-destructive ascent through structural levels is the driving dynamic. The BRICS and some others are mastering diverse processing infrastructure build and have a toehold in information economy, while the western bloc is so far unable to manage the impact of technology advance that has hollowed out and obsoleted vast skills and regions. The 'non aligned ' movement already exists: the 40 countries that did not vote in the UN for sanctions on Russia represent the majority of the world population. The mercantile partition of world commerce and destabilization of border regions are a fool's errand that are already suppressing world economy and will hasten the stagnation and nativism in the west. Replay of WW I and II that ascended the west? No, they dont hold the economic or internal unity cards they had in the past.
So, paraphrasing George W. Bush after the twin towers attack in NYC, please continue to go out shopping? Aren't economic sanctions a more humane way to try to convince Russia the costs of its invasion are too high?
Russia might have come up with a mix of coronavirus pandemic related concepts and anti-nazism pride to cook up not a world war Z but a special military operation Z against the purely materialistic free of free will and thus zombie Wunderwaffen West. So the schematic picture of the conflict might be the Russian orthodox spirit fighting with low tech but high body numbers the materialistic enlightenment using high tech and low body numbers, and consequently one mighy wonder how and to what extent the enlightenment influenced the russian orthodox church if at all.
Ideology is strongly expressive but very weakly determining. These perennial attempts to displace everything into ideology are just the froth of reverie and wish-fulfilment. A clericy's ( understandable but irrelevant) bid for more attention and more customers.
I was wondering if some Russians in power were going fanatical, caring more for ideas than for physical life as we have witnessed with in some fanatical parts of the Islamic creed.
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Immigration has been at the heart of social and economic development since the dawn of civilization; it has also been one of the matches that ignited the populist rebellions of recent years. Lost all too often in the near hysterical politics of immigration is the fact that migrants and refugees are ordinary people pursuing ordinary interests, though often under extraordinary circumstances.
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U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Is Under Way Because of the Russian War | About the author: George Magnus is a research associate at Oxford University’ s China Centre and at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. He was chief economist of UBS and is the author of Red Flags: Why Xi’ s China Is in Jeopardy.
The official readouts of the recent remote meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping were unsurprisingly different. Biden warned about the “ implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia. ” China’ s somewhat defiant response rejected “ sweeping and indiscriminate sanctions ” as dangerous for the world economy. This diplomatic exchange served to emphasize not only the huge sensitivity of sanctions but also that political and economic decoupling is now moving up through the gears.
Financial markets, predictably, didn’ t seem immediately fazed. But companies are taking note.
China is in an awkward position. Xi craves stability ahead of the important 20th Communist Party conference late this year. The Chinese economy was already facing headwinds from an overhang of debt, a tipping point in the property sector, employment pressures, and stalled productivity. Covid prevalence has surged, at least by Chinese standards. Lockdowns and restrictions could affect provinces accounting for nearly half of gross domestic product.
Now, China also faces surging fuel, commodity, and food prices in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, which could take up to 1% off already-anemic growth. The last thing that Xi wants is to become embroiled in a new sanctions row if he is deemed overly complicit in Putin’ s war.
Xi’ s instinct for now is probably to continue to walk the precipitous path between backing Putin just enough and keeping the wrath of the U.S. and European Union at bay. His own political prospects are closely tied to what happens to Putin, and we should assume that he wants a fellow autocrat to prevail against the West. Yet there are limits. Russia is small beer economically compared with the $ 1.3 trillion of bilateral trade China does with the U.S. and EU, and the vast infrastructure of dependence on foreign direct investment, access to global capital markets and the U.S. dollar, and the acquisition of crucial technology, know-how, and research-and-development inputs.
In other words, China thrives and depends on engagement in the global economy. If these relationships were to fracture further, no one would benefit. A more isolated China would be a diminished force economically.
The beginning of the war marks a period of decisive change for China’ s relationship with the world. China will be determined to “ sanction proof ” its economy and financial system, if that’ s even possible. It, along with its liberal adversaries, will strive to rely less on one another’ s products and supply chains in the most sensitive areas associated with broadly defined national security.
Companies in China have gradually, if reluctantly, been drawn into controversial legal and regulatory disputes. While focused on commitments to China’ s large markets and middle class, they have had to manage in an increasingly awkward business environment. China has recalibrated its industrial policy and imposed more-politicized regulation and more-controlling administration systems. The business environment has also deteriorated in the wake of the trade war, development of entity lists, export controls, blacklisting of companies, market access restrictions, and rows over human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.
Covid restrictions and closed borders have simply made more pressing the need to reconsider the integrity and regionalization of supply chains, to diversify away from sole-source suppliers and ensure that business plans remain functional in the event that even one product or material should be subject to new sanction or regulation.
Competing regulations, laws, systems, and standards have also been driving firms to disengage or decouple in, for example, digital, innovation, and research spaces, as they look at the widening risk of bifurcated systems, standards, and data management.
In areas of high strategic or national security importance, there are already different systems. Firewalls are being erected directly through restrictions on market access, negative lists that restrain foreign investors, and national security measures, and indirectly through the application of party- and state-determined standards and licensing requirements.
We should hope that the kind of macro and financial decoupling that is now in full view in Russia never applies to China, but the gauntlet has been thrown down. Companies will be obliged to pay close attention to contingency plans, diversification strategies, and decoupling of supply chains in some areas, at least as far as China goes. They will also find themselves increasingly subject to competing laws and regulations, for example, over sanctions, monopoly and competition policy, and national security. Companies might be forced to choose whether to follow Chinese laws and antagonize their home governments and shareholders, or to flout them and face an altogether different music.
It is true that the unprecedented interdependence between China and the rest of the world can not be quickly or easily ended. Nonetheless, decoupling has started and is likely to gather momentum in years to come. The consequences of the war in Ukraine, and the threat of secondary sanctions against China over its support for Russia or, perhaps one day, its actions on Taiwan, mean that for companies the prior alignment of corporate and national interests is pretty much over. | business |
Kasper Asgreen on disappointing E3 Saxo Bank Classic: ' I didn't have the legs to keep up with Wout van Aert ' | Get access to more than 30 brands, premium video, exclusive content, events, mapping, and more.
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HARELBEKE, Belgium ( VN) — Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl will have to go back to the drawing board after another disappointing classics performance at the E3 Saxo Bank Classic.
Known for its prolific winning capabilities on home roads, the team — which started one man down after Mikkel Honoré had to drop out with illness — usually has multiple cards to play when it comes to crunch moments. Not only did Jumbo-Visma use the Belgian team’ s own tactics against it to blow up the race on the Taaienberg, the squad was conspicuous in its absence at times.
Defending E3 champion Kasper Asgreen was the team leader and the only man able to follow Wout van Aert’ s Taaienberg surge. Florian Sénéchal and Davide Ballerini were able to make the jump to the leading group following a chase by Ineos Grenadiers to close the gap, but Asgreen was isolated again with Ballerini getting dropped and Sénéchal suffering a puncture.
Asgreen was Quick-Step’ s best finisher with 10th place at the back of the chasing group with most of the team finishing over six minutes behind van Aert and his Jumbo-Visma teammate Christophe Laporte. The Dane was hit by COVID-19 at the start of the season, but he doesn’ t want to use it as an excuse for Friday’ s performance.
“ The way Wout van Aert escaped on the Paterberg was quite impressive. That hill never lies. The Jumbo-Visma team is doing very well and accumulating performances. I just didn’ t have the legs to keep up Wout. I’ m not going to hide behind the disease I had to face five or six weeks ago. Yet my condition is not one hundred percent, and I am not able to keep up with the best. It was clear this time, ” Asgreen said.
It’ s not the first disappointing race for the team this spring after fell short at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad with Sénéchal in ninth their best finisher. Fabio Jakobsen made sure the opening weekend wasn’ t a complete washout with victory at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, but it is the only bright spot in a frustrating spring.
The team has been hit hard by the likes of Yves Lampaert and Tim Declercq being ruled out of racing through illness.
The Quick-Step riders and staff may want to consign the 2022 E3 Saxo Bank Classic to the garbage-can of forgotten memories, but it will need to use the frustration of the race to push it forward for the coming races.
Next up is Gent-Wevelgem on Sunday, but the big goal will be the Tour of Flanders next week. A win there and the painful memories of recent weeks will go away, but the team has to figure out how to put a stop to Jumbo-Visma’ s recent dominance.
“ There is a way to beat them, ” Asgreen said. “ We just have to see with our team how we can achieve that. It’ s about finding the right battle plan to beat them. We’ re going to analyze this race to understand where and why it hurts. shot. We can only learn from this E3 Harelbeke. ”
Sport director Tom Steels tried to put a braver face on the performance and said it wasn’ t time for panic stations just yet.
“ Kasper did a solid race and can be satisfied with his effort. It wasn’ t easy, but we don’ t have to panic or be afraid, just head with confidence into the next races because we are getting there, ” he said.
“ We knew it was going to be a hard race, and things complicated when we lost Mikkel before the start through illness. This meant we had to start in six, but even in these conditions Jannik [ Steimle ] and Stijn [ Steels ] did a great job controlling the breakaway. Things still looked good as we headed to the Paterberg, as we could rely on three riders in the main group, but it all changed when Florian had a flat tire. ”
A week is a long time in cycling, but Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl has some work to do.
Get the latest race news, results, commentary, and tech, delivered to your inbox. | general |
Cohen Veterans Network Launches New Research Institute to Improve Mental Health Outcomes for Veterans, Service Members and Their Families | Committed to advancing the field of mental health, Cohen Veterans Network ( CVN), a national not-for-profit network of mental health clinics for post-9/11 veterans, service members and their families, today announced the launch of Cohen Veterans Network Institute for Quality ( CVN-IQ). The institute will use research, innovation, and collaboration, with other military and veteran service agencies, mental health industry leaders and academic partners to improve treatment outcomes for veterans, service members and their families while enhancing their quality of life.
The network launches CVN-IQ as the country faces a public health crisis related to mental health care. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has increased mental health needs nationally, including within the military and veteran communities, while simultaneously reducing access. This is compounded by a shortage of mental health providers. While CVN’ s model is actively addressing the mental health access challenge by providing telehealth, same day appointments for those in crisis, and flexible scheduling, CVN-IQ is another capability the network can deploy to ensure the organization is providing optimal care and advancing the field of mental health.
CVN-IQ will partner with stakeholders across disciplines to explore new treatments, technologies, trainings, clinical benchmarks, models of care, and more. The institute will leverage CVN’ s de-identified data repository to continuously improve the network’ s understanding of and responsiveness to the needs of their clients. Research will focus on four areas, including:
“ I’ m thrilled about the launch of our dedicated collaborative research institute, ” says Cohen Veterans Network President & CEO Dr. Anthony Hassan. “ The institute will enable our network to truly function as a learning mental health system using our data to optimize network performance and ensuring access to quality care remains our top priority. We also look forward to generating new knowledge through original research and leveraging innovation to increase the effectiveness of mental health treatments to benefit the entire field. ”
The institute is led by Dr. David Linkh, an accomplished researcher and 26-year veteran of the U.S. Air Force. Linkh is a Licensed Clinical Social Worker who received his doctorate from Columbia University. Over his two decade plus military career he held numerous clinical, research and command positions, and deployed several times. He has published research in areas including psychological trauma/PTSD, interpersonal and self-directed violence, suicide prevention, resilience, and implementation science.
“ The opportunities for CVN-IQ are limitless as we look toward the future, ” says CVN-IQ Director Dr. David Linkh. “ With collaboration at the heart of the institute, I look forward to partnering across disciplines in the mental health field to solve problems and generate new ideas and methods which improve treatment outcomes for veterans, service members and their families. ”
CVN has treated more than 30,000 clients since its inception in 2016. The network provides high-quality, accessible mental health services to post-9/11 veterans, active duty service members and military family members through its 20 Cohen Clinics across the country. Treatment is available for a wide variety of mental health challenges including PTSD, depression, anxiety, adjustment issues, anger, grief and loss, family issues, transition challenges, relationship problems, and children’ s behavioral problems. Care is available in person or via CVN Telehealth, face-to-face video therapy. | tech |
Azerbaijan confirms 41 more COVID-19 cases, 113 recoveries | Azerbaijan has detected 41 new COVID-19 cases, 113 patients have recovered, and four patients have died, Trend reports citing the Operational Headquarters under Azerbaijani Cabinet of Ministers.
Up until now, 791,695 people have been infected with coronavirus in the country, 781,641 of them have recovered, and 9,679 people have died. Currently, 375 people are under treatment in special hospitals.
To reveal the COVID-19 cases, 2,696 tests have been carried out in Azerbaijan over the past day, and a total of 6,681,983 tests have been conducted so far. | general |
Smart Home Technology Can Be a Selling Point - The Santa Barbara Independent |
By Bob Walsmith Jr.2022 PresidentSanta Barbara Association of Realtors
You often judge a house by its good looks. But guess what? Now you can also judge it by its IQ. Long buzzed-about smart home technology — think smart thermostats, smart lighting, and app-controlled security systems — are moving into more homes. Smart home tech can up your coolness factor and make homes easier to operate. Plus, it may also offer perks when you sell your home.
Home shoppers are increasingly looking beyond that killer kitchen upgrade to a seller’ s Wi-Fi signal and connectivity. This isn’ t just a priority for the techie set. As smart home technology gets more affordable and easier to use, more people are adding devices.
Here comes a potential home buyer. Motion-activated lighting automatically turns on as they enter. A smart thermostat adjusts the temperature for ultimate comfort. The smart robot vacuum is keeping the home tidy. The window blinds are adjusting based on the sun’ s direction. And the smart speaker is telling them about the home’ s features.
Four in 10 Americans have bought a smart home device since the COVID-19 outbreak and are more interested in smart home technology, according to a 2020 REALTOR.com study. The pandemic has driven smart home technology forward. How we interact with our homes is becoming different. At some point, buyers will expect it.
Consumers between 18 and 34 said they would pay more for homes with home theaters, smart speakers in every room, and connected kitchens, according to the REALTOR.com study. In the 25 to 54 age group, consumers said they’ d pay more for solar roof tiles and home battery packs. And for those 55 and older, solar roof tiles, smart doorbells, and security systems would be worth extra money.
You can easily add smart home technology to modernize an older home and help it compete with newer ones. After all, many home builders offer smart home packages to outfit new homes with smart thermostats, app-controlled garage doors, smart lighting, door locks, and video security systems.
Smart home technology investments can range from $ 20 for adding smart light bulbs to $ 20,000 or more for automated solutions that connect systems in one hub for an entire house. For $ 1,500, you can outfit your home with multiple systems like a smart speaker, smart lighting, and a smart thermostat to increase the home’ s smart tech appeal. For about $ 5,500, homeowners could automate the lights, door locks, and thermostat, and install a smart speaker, hub, and smart plugs in three rooms, according to FixR.com.
Bigger brand names in smart home technology — like Nest, Ring, and Lutron — have instant name recognition when selling. Ease of use also counts.
With smart devices, you’ ll need to be clear about what stays and what goes with the home sale. It’ s a gray area with some of these devices on what’ s considered personal property. It’ s important to get this in writing.
1. Find an agent with smart technology expertise. They can help avoid hiccups in selling a smart home and tend to be savvy tech marketers.
2. Identify which of your smart home technology devices or apps are real property versus personal property. In general, items affixed or hardwired to a house stay. If you plan to take your Nest thermostat or Ring doorbell, replace it before listing.
3. Turn over the virtual keys. On closing day, turning over the passwords in a smart home is like turning over the key to the front door. For all transferable technology, reset it to factory settings to erase any personal data. Leave instruction manuals or website links for the new owners.
Smart home technology is improving safety, security, and convenience in homes. Homeowners should also consider the benefits they’ ll have when they sell one day. Just like curb appeal, high home appeal may make your home a standout to buyers.
Bob Walsmith Jr. is a native to Southern California and a Realtor® with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties in Santa Barbara. During his work with the Santa Barbara Association of Realtors, Bob has served on the CORE Committee, Education Committee, been Chair of the Budget & Finance Committee, and the Multiple Listing Service Committee. He also is on the Board of Directors of the Alpha Resource Center of Santa Barbara. Bob lives in Goleta with his beautiful wife Julie. When not working, Bob enjoys playing golf, fine wine, fine dining, and walking our beautiful coastline. Bob can be reached at 805.720.5362 and/or bob @ bobwalsmithjr.com | general |
Joe Biden tells Polish leader: Your freedom is ours | US President Joe Biden has sought to reassure Poland that the United States would defend it against any attacks by Russia and he acknowledged that the Nato ally bore the burden of the refugee crisis from the war in neighbouring Ukraine.
“ Your freedom is ours, ” Mr Biden told his Polish counterpart, Andrzej Duda, echoing of one of Poland’ s unofficial mottos.
At the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, the two leaders spoke of their mutual respect and shared goals to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Today, I met with Ukraine’ s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defense — and with Polish President Andrzej Duda. I’ m visiting a refugee site to see our humanitarian efforts. Tonight, I’ m delivering remarks on our commitment to a future rooted in democratic principles.
“ Although times are very difficult, today Polish-American relations are flourishing, ” Mr Duda said.
More than 3.5 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began, and two million of them are in Poland.
Earlier this week, the US announced it would take in as many as 100,000 refugees, and Mr Biden told Mr Duda that he understood Poland was “ taking on a big responsibility, but it should be all of Nato’ s responsibility ”.
Mr Biden called the “ collective defence ” agreement of Nato a “ sacred commitment ”, and said the unity of the Western military alliance was of the utmost importance.
Today, we announced a new groundbreaking initiative between the European Union and the United States to reduce Europe’ s dependence on Russian energy. pic.twitter.com/ypXg45R8Mp
“ I’ m confident that Vladimir Putin was counting on dividing Nato, ” Mr Biden said about the Russian president.
“ But he hasn’ t been able to do it. We’ ve all stayed together. ”
With the war in Ukraine entering its second month, European security is facing its most serious test since the Second World War.
Western leaders have spent the past week consulting over contingency plans in case the conflict spreads. The invasion has shaken Nato out of any complacency it might have felt and cast a dark shadow over Europe.
Mr Biden’ s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said a speech that the US leader was scheduled to give later on Saturday in Poland’ s capital would outline the “ urgency of the challenge that lies ahead ” and “ what the conflict in Ukraine means for the world, and why it is so important that the free world stay in unity and resolve in the face of Russian aggression ”.
Mr Biden’ s remarks will end a four-day trip that included a series of summits in Brussels.
In addition to the meeting with Mr Duda, he stopped by a meeting of American and Ukrainian diplomatic and defence officials for an update on Ukraine’ s military, diplomatic and humanitarian situation.
Also on the schedule: a stop at stadium where Ukrainian refugees go to obtain a Polish identification number that gives them access to social services such as health care and schools.
The stadium was built in 2012, when Poland and Ukraine hosted the European championships, and was meant as a symbol of how far the two countries had come since the Cold War. More recently, it served as a field hospital for Covid-19 patients.
Mr Biden previewed his closing speech during appearances on Friday in Rzeszow.
This afternoon, I met with members of the 82nd Airborne Division on the ground in Poland. These folks are serving alongside our Polish Allies to bolster NATO’ s frontline defenses. They’ re doing incredible work and I’ m grateful for their service. pic.twitter.com/mXu50UuRWI
“ You’ re in the midst of a fight between democracies and oligarchs, ” he told members of the US Army’ s 82nd Airborne Division during a visit to their temporary headquarters.
“ Is democracy going to prevail and the values we share, or are autocracies going to prevail? ” | general |
Every Photo from Prince William & Kate Middleton's Royal Caribbean Tour | We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we love. Promise.
Amid protests, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge have embarked on an eight-day tour to Belize, the Bahamas, and Jamaica on behalf of Queen Elizabeth.
In celebration of Queen Elizabeth’ s Platinum Jubilee, Prince William and Duchess Kate have embarked on an eight-day royal tour that will take them through Belize, the Bahamas, and Jamaica.
The trip, which is the couple’ s first official joint overseas tour since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been marked by protests and growing criticism from locals throughout the Caribbean demanding slavery reparations and staging demonstrations against the royal family’ s history of colonization. Bazaar.com understands that the couple’ s tour hopes to serve as a “ charm offensive ” to win over residents across the Caribbean at a time when many are unsure about keeping a royal head of state.
Ahead, see every photo from the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’ s royal tour. And watch this space for updates.
Duchess Kate looks like a modern-day Cinderella in a fairy-tale ice blue dress by British designer Phillipa Lepley at a reception hosted by the Bahamas’ governor general at Baha Mar Resort in Nassau, Bahamas.
Duchess Kate and Prince William chat at the Bahamas’ governor general’ s event. William’ s midnight blue velvet tux jacket and bow tie complement Kate’ s dreamy satin gown with bows at the shoulders.
Duchess Kate gracefully sips champagne while at the dinner, where Prince William gave an empowering speech suggesting that the royal family will respect any Caribbean country’ s decision to separate itself from the monarchy.
The Cambridges hold hands and gaze into each other’ s eyes during the governor general’ s reception in the Bahamas.
Duchess Kate waves as she and Prince William attend the Platinum Jubilee Sailing Regatta in the Bahamas.
The duchess wears shorts, a brown woven belt, and a white polo shirt.
The couple laughs during a rainstorm.
Kate holds up a yellow umbrella.
The Duchess of Cambridge wears a mint green pleated chiffon dress from Self-Portrait. Accessories include gold earrings from Nadia Irena and white Jimmy Choo pumps.
Prince William and Duchess Kate interact with the crowd during a visit to Sybil Strachan Primary School in Nassau, Bahamas.
The Cambridges meet with students.
The royals sit in a classroom at Sybil Strachan Primary School.
Prince William plants a tree during a visit to Sybil Strachan Primary School.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge pose for a photo with students.
The couple stand during the official arrival at Lynden Pindling International Airport.
The Cambridges arrive at Lynden Pindling International Airport in Nassau, Bahamas. The duchess wears a custom Emilia Wickstead gown in turquoise with nude Gianvito Rossi pumps.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge attend the Caribbean Military Academy commissioning parade at the Jamaica Defence Force’ s Up Park Camp in Kingston, Jamaica.
The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge attend the Caribbean Military Academy commissioning parade at the Jamaica Defence Force’ s Up Park Camp in Kingston, Jamaica.
Prince William and Duchess Kate ride the same open-top Land Rover that was used by Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip during their 1953 trip to Jamaica.
Kate wears a lacy white midi dress, a white hat, and ivory Emmy London pumps.
Kate wears a lacy white midi dress, a white hat, and ivory Emmy London pumps.
The royals pose for a photo with Governor General of Jamaica Sir Patrick Allen and Lady Allen at a dinner hosted at King’ s House.
Kate wears a glittery custom Jenny Packham gown in emerald green.
The couple prepares to depart on the RAF Voyager from Norman Manley International Airport.
The couple prepares to depart on the RAF Voyager from Norman Manley International Airport.
Prince William and Duchess Kate pose for a photograph with the prime minister of Jamaica, Andrew Holness, and his wife, Juliet Holness, during a meeting at his office in Kingston, Jamaica.
Kate wears an ivory Alexander McQueen suit with an orange top from Ridley London. She color-coordinates her accessories, too, carrying a woven orange handbag and wearing white Jimmy Choo pumps. | general |
Denis Lehane: The return of the heartbreaker | I explained to the lady that I was a bit like the weather-beaten banana I held proudly in my hand.
`` Oh me or my, you make me sigh, you're such a good-looking man, '' Joe Dolan could well have sung back in the day - had he known me.
There is no point in denying it any longer. I am a frightfully good-looking man ( as you have probably guessed from admiring my picture week after week).
I could, if push came to shove, be the best-looking farmer, not only in this townland, but perhaps in the parish and, indeed, the world.
Why I was never snapped up as a model by the great fashion houses of Armani or Calvin Klein is a mystery only the very bright could answer. I would have sold a million underpants once the catalogues were released. Anyhow, the world never saw me in my underpants, and it's the world's loss.
As I look at myself now in a faded bathroom mirror I have to admit that my hair might be getting a little scarce on top ( the picture was taken some time back).
Alas, time has done to my head what the wild westerly wind does to a badly made thatch. And what hair remains, after the onslaught, is now a distinguished grey.
And bizarrely enough, while the hair on my head refuses to grow, my eyebrows are lengthening faster than weeds around the back door of an abandoned farmhouse. Tis a strange sight in many ways.
But be that as it may. My god, I 'm still a sight to behold. Especially from a distance and when a bit of fog is lingering in the valley. Being a farmer who turned 50 some time back, naturally, I now have a tummy that reflects a man of more mature years.
A man who enjoys the delights of fatty bacon, buttery spuds and the odd pint. Sure, we all have our guilty pleasures. Naturally, being of the land, my complexion reflects the years I have spent in turmoil. Years out in the wilds chasing after half-mad sheep, wild pigs and half-squeezed bulls.
I have the colour of a man who has seen it all and the teeth of a man who hasn't visited a dentist in decades. Teeth are overrated if you ask me. Sure when do you really need them?
Anyhow, all these reflections aside, the fact still remains, with regards to looks, I 'm up there with the best of them. With Sinatra and Dean Martin.
A bit like the weather-beaten banana
Last week I took off my covid mask in public for the first time in years and the heads haven't stopped turning yet. `` Good God, '' a woman declared to me in surprise down at our local supermarket as I searched for an overripe banana, `` but I had never realised you were such a rugged and handsome old devil ''. | general |
Killing of American puts snail-paced Greek courts in dock | Hi, what are you looking for?
Texan Bakari Henderson, 22, was set upon by a group of mostly Serbian men on the holiday island of Zakynthos in 2017.
By
Published
Delays in the retrial of men accused of beating a black American graduate to death in Greece has thrown a spotlight on the country’ s snail-paced justice system.
Texan Bakari Henderson, 22, was set upon by a group of mostly Serbian men on the holiday island of Zakynthos in 2017 in a horrific attack captured on video.
With the White House now pressuring Athens for action, insiders say the case is typical of the chronic dysfunction of Greece’ s legal system.
“ In no other country in Europe are procedures so time-consuming, so complicated and so repetitive, ” Supreme Court prosecutor Vassilis Pliotas told AFP.
When US Vice President Kamala Harris met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in February, she reportedly quizzed him about the delays in the Henderson case.
In an angry statement days later, Greek judges said it was “ unfair ” to blame them, warning officials to stay out of judicial business.
The Henderson case has made little progress in four years after a retrial was ordered when prosecutors deemed his attackers had got off too lightly.
Of the nine tried, three walked free and six were sentenced to between five and 15 years in prison for assault rather than murder. Only one is still in jail.
Covid-19 has badly disrupted Greek courts, but even before the pandemic, trials were habitually postponed, frequently because lawyers were busy elsewhere and requested adjournments.
A 2016 strike by lawyers over planned changes to their pension fund also paralysed the system for nine months.
– ‘ Denial of justice’ –
Foot-dragging by judges is another key problem, said veteran justice reporter Panagiotis Tsimboukis, who called the delays a “ denial of justice of pandemic proportions ”.
More than 40 laws have been passed over the years to speed up judicial procedures, and over a dozen judges were fired in recent months for excessive delays, Tsimboukis told AFP.
But the problem persists.
Vassilis Chirdaris, a Supreme Court lawyer with extensive experience at the European Court of Human Rights ( ECHR), said “ nobody obeys ” a requirement to resolve trials within three years.
Some cases have been stuck for 14 years in Greece’ s top administrative court, the Council of State, and over 4,000 hearings have been postponed at least once, Tsimboukis said.
“ The volume of cases overwhelms judges ” who then try to offload the burden to colleagues, he claimed.
The Athens prosecutor’ s office alone can amass 450,000 lawsuits over a three-year period, Pliotas said. “ That’ s around a million people involved. ”
The ECHR has repeatedly fined Greece for excessive case delays, penalising the country more than 500 times since 1959, according to Chirdaris.
– Supermarket trolleys and files in toilets –
Outdated facilities and short court hours don’ t help, he argued.
Case files are wheeled about in supermarket trolleys at the Athens court complex. The former military academy was last refitted nearly four decades ago.
One of the buildings has no elevator, so documents are hoisted upstairs with a winch.
In the building that houses first instance rulings, court documents headed for the archive room are lined in knee-high stacks on the floor.
The bulging folders snake up the stairs to the first floor and into the ladies’ and men’ s toilets, tucked under sinks and blocking two cubicles.
“ Conditions here are tragic, ” said Yiorgos Diamantis, head of the federation of Greek legal operatives.
Not only are the buildings archaic and the courtrooms too small, but the federation says it is short of 3,000 staff, with 1,700 more reaching retirement age.
Steps have been taken in recent years to increase online access to cases and rulings, and the pandemic gave the process further impetus.
The justice ministry is also working on a bill setting out new limits on case postponements.
But a significant part of the system remains stubbornly old-school.
“ Older judges and lawyers are uncomfortable with going digital. At the Athens appeals court, four in 10 rulings are still written out by hand, ” said staff federation spokesman Sotiris Tripolitsiotis.
With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.
That’ s the real danger. Nobody trusts Russian judgment anymore.
The UN refugee agency UNHCR says 4,656,509 Ukrainians have fled since Russia invaded on February 24 - Copyright AFP FARJANA K. GODHULYRobin MILLARDMore than...
AI, facial recognition, and biometrics can help the world get back to work.
Sri Lanka urged its citizens overseas to send home money to help pay for desperately needed food and fuel.
COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2022 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
Making trade easier: Costa-Rican customs adopts blockchain | Hi, what are you looking for?
The blockchain process enables data to be recorded in a secure digital format. This provides real-time information on transactions.
By
Published
Is blockchain now an established part of the supply chain industry? Things appear to be heading in that direction. This includes acceptance by state officials as to the importance of digital ledgers.
READ MORE: FDA drug supply chain pilot project spurs blockchain advancements
Blockchain is based on digital technology and it is a form of software that provides a digital ledger system for records and log transactions, by grouping them into chronologically ordered blocks.
Such a system has been adopted by the Costa Rican Customs Authority, who will integrate a blockchain underpinned platform and use this to review containerized shipment events and transportation documents, including bills of landing. The technology has been provided by the company TradeLens.
The new technology enables key information to be recorded digitally within specific data fields in transportation documents. The aims are two-fold: To make trade easier for compliant companies doing business in the country while and the same time assisting in the identification of fraudulent activities.
The blockchain process enables data to be recorded in a secure digital format. This provides real-time information on transactions between different parties, in records that can not be altered.
Security is strengthened via the “ blocks ” on the blockchain being made up of digital pieces of information, which store information about transactions, say the date, time, and transaction price.
A further advantage, for the industry as a whole, is through the sharing of time-critical events which will allow importers and exporters in Costa Rica to gain access to earlier information and better plan logistic operations.
In a statement, Gerardo Bolaños, General Director of Customs said: “ Customs of Costa Rica is excited to explore the benefits that blockchain can offer local importers and exporters. Collaborating with an ecosystem that already exists within the TradeLens platform allows us to review this new technology quickly and easily. Making it easier for legitimate international trade with Costa Rica is an important joint goal of this evaluation. ”
Such technology sets out to improve the process for network participants and to modernize the industry across the global trade ecosystem.
Dr. Tim Sandle is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for science news. Tim specializes in science, technology, environmental, and health journalism. He is additionally a practising microbiologist; and an author. He is also interested in history, politics and current affairs.
Under a shattered crescent hanger at Ukraine's Gostomel Airport the world's largest plane lies buckled and broken.
A federal appeals court upheld Biden’ s vaccine mandate for federal workers, while COVID-19 cases rise.
The fake logic is simple to the point of idiocy, but it’ ll work in information-starved Russia.
At least 52 people are killed, including five children, in a rocket attack on a train station in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk.
COPYRIGHT © 1998 - 2022 DIGITAL JOURNAL INC. Digital Journal is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more about our external linking. | general |
Number of COVID-2019 cases across globe exceeds 475 million | The overall number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide has exceeded 475 million and the number of fatalities has exceeded 6.1 million, the World Health Organization ( WHO) said on Friday, Trend reports citing TASS.
As of 20:47 Moscow time on March 25, as many as 476,374,234 novel coronavirus cases and 6,108,976 coronavirus-associated deaths were registered across the globe. The number of confirmed cases grew by 1,608,935 over the past day and the number of fatalities increased by 5,143.
The WHO statistics is based on officially confirmed data from the countries.
The biggest number of coronavirus cases was reported from the United States ( 79,139,385), India ( 43,016,372), Brazil ( 29,729,991), France ( 23,903,547), and the United Kingdom ( 20,613,821).
The biggest number of fatalities was reported from the United States ( 967,905), Brazil ( 657,998), India ( 516,755), Russia ( 366,618), and Mexico ( 322,277). | general |
Larry Fink says globalization is over -- - Here's what it means for the markets | An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to PGIM Quantitative Solutions by its former name. The article has been corrected.
BlackRock Inc. founder Larry Fink declared that the Russia-Ukraine war is bringing the era of globalization to an end, but investors should keep in mind that the global economy and the financial system can’ t turn on a dime, analysts say.
“ There is a lot of talk about countries going back to local production and the era of globalization and long overseas supply chains is over, ” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, in a note following Thursday’ s U.S. data showing a fall in first-time jobless benefit claims to their lowest since 1968. “ But that economic model has one gigantic stumbling block in the U.S.A. because there is no one to work the factories to produce the goods here on American soil. ”
So what is Fink, one of the founders of the world’ s largest investment management firm, BlackRock
BLK,
-1.71%
,
with nearly $ 10 trillion under management, talking about when he talks about the end of globalization?
In his
annual investor letter
released on Thursday, Fink said he remains a believer in the benefits of globalization: “ Access to global capital enables companies to fund growth, countries to increase economic development, and more people to experience financial well-being. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades, ” he wrote.
Need to Know:
It’ s the beginning of the end of globalization, say BlackRock’ s Larry Fink and Oaktree’ s Howard Marks
Sanctions imposed by the U.S., EU and allies have largely expelled Russia from the global financial system while numerous Western companies have left or suspended operations in the country as punishment for its invasion of Ukraine. The “ economic war ” shows what can be achieved when companies, supported by their stakeholders, unite in response to violence and aggression, Fink said.
“ Russia’ s aggression in Ukraine and its subsequent decoupling from the global economy is going to prompt companies and governments world-wide to re-evaluate their dependencies and reanalyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints —something that Covid had already spurred many to start doing, ” Fink said.
S
ee:
Russia-Ukraine war could accelerate use of digital currencies, BlackRock’ s Larry Fink says
Indeed, talk of such decoupling first gathered momentum as the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump fought a trade war with China, a trend Fink had highlighted in previous letters. If globalization is poised to unwind, some analysts say, it makes sense to look at homegrown investments, which for U.S. investors would include companies whose revenues come overwhelmingly from domestic sales and whose assets are primarily U.S.-based.
Barron’ s:
Globalization May Be Over. Here Are 5 Stocks That Can Benefit.
It also makes sense to expect more upward pressure on inflation as shorter supply chains raise costs.
Some expectations around deglobalization may not stand up to reality though.
After all, what happens if in a couple of years a firm’ s competitor goes back to doing business with people around the world and can beat it on price? “ Do you go back to the old model? It’ s not an easy competitive point of view, ” said Ed Keon, chief investment strategist at PGIM Quantitative Solutions, in a phone interview.
Competitive forces are likely to keep “ at least a substantial degree of globalization going ” despite near-term crosscurrents, he said.
In the short run, the simplest trade this year has been to look at areas that have seen underinvestment for years, including energy and materials infrastructure, he said.
“ Until that is reversed or we have embraced noncarbon sources until they displace the need for carbon, it seems quite likely this commodity rally might have some legs, ” Keon said, which speaks in favor of investing in commodities and commodity producers.
It’ s been a wild ride for commodity markets since Russia’ s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, with oil benchmarks
CL.1,
-0.37%
BRN00,
-0.37%
soaring to around 14-year highs, retreating sharply, then pushing back to the upside this week. Both West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, remain well above $ 100 a barrel. The energy stock sector, up 42.25% year to date, is the top gainer by far among the S & P 500 index’ s 11 sectors.
U.S. stocks overall have stumbled to start 2022, but have bounced back from the lows. The S & P 500
SPX,
-0.27%
rose 1.8% over the past week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.40%
eked out a 0.1% rise and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.34%
advanced 2%. It was the second consecutive weekly gain for the major indexes. | business |
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for March 26 | As many as 1,382 people have been infected with the coronavirus ( COVID-19) in the past 24 hours in Iran, reads the statement of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, Trend reports.
In addition, 54 people have died from the coronavirus over the past day.
At the same time, the condition of 1,672 people remains critical.
So far, more than 49.1 million tests have been conducted in Iran for the diagnosis of coronavirus.
In total, over 146 million doses of vaccines have been used in Iran so far. A total of 63.7 million doses have been used on the first stage, 56.6 million doses - on the second stage, and 25.8 million doses – on the third stage.
Iran continues to monitor the coronavirus situation in the country. According to recent reports from Iranian officials, over 7.14 million people have been infected, and 139,971 people have already died.
Meanwhile, over 6.85 million people have reportedly recovered from the disease. The country continues to apply strict measures to contain the further spread of the virus.
Reportedly, the disease was brought to Iran by a businessman from Iran's Qom city, who went on a business trip to China, despite official warnings. The man died later from the disease. The Islamic Republic announced its first infections and deaths from the coronavirus on Feb. 19.
The outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan - which is an international transport hub - began at a fish market in late December 2019.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) on March 11 declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Some sources claim the coronavirus outbreak started as early as November 2019. | general |
Chemical Found in Broccoli Shown To Slow Growth of COVID-19 and Common Cold Viruses | A Johns Hopkins Children’ s Center-led study in mice and lab-grown cells finds sulforaphane could help prevent and treat illnesses caused by certain coronaviruses, including COVID-19.
Researchers at Johns Hopkins Children’ s Center report evidence from lab experiments that a chemical derived from a compound found abundantly in broccoli and other cruciferous plants may offer a potentially new and potent weapon against the viruses that cause COVID-19 and the common cold. COVID-19 has already killed more than 6 million people worldwide, and studies have shown that common colds cost an estimated economic loss of $ 25 billion in the U.S. alone each year.
In a study described on March 18, 2022, in the Nature journal Communications Biology, the scientists showed that sulforaphane, a plant-derived chemical, known as a phytochemical, already found to have anti-cancer effects, can inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and another human coronavirus in cells and mice.
While the results are promising, the researchers caution the public against rushing to buy sulforaphane supplements available online and in stores, noting that studies of sulforaphane in humans are necessary before the chemical is proven effective, and emphasizing the lack of regulation covering such supplements.
Sulforaphane’ s natural precursor is particularly abundant in broccoli, cabbage, kale, and Brussels sprouts. First identified as a “ chemopreventive ” compound by a team of Johns Hopkins scientists decades ago, natural sulforaphane is derived from common food sources, such as broccoli seeds, sprouts, and mature plants, as well as infusions of sprouts or seeds for drinking. Previous studies, including those at Johns Hopkins Medicine, have shown sulforaphane to have cancer and infection-prevention properties by way of interfering with certain cellular processes.
“ When the COVID-19 pandemic started, our multidisciplinary research teams switched our investigations of other viruses and bacteria to focus on a potential treatment for what was then a challenging new virus for us, ” says Children’ s Center microbiologist Lori Jones-Brando, Ph.D., an assistant professor of pediatrics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the senior author of the paper. “ I was screening multiple compounds for anti-coronavirus activity and decided to try sulforaphane since it has shown modest activity against other microbial agents that we study. ” The researchers used purified, synthetic sulforaphane purchased from commercial chemical suppliers in their experiments.
In one experiment, the research team first exposed cells to sulforaphane for one to two hours before infecting the cells with SARS-CoV-2 and the common cold coronavirus, HCoV-OC43. They found that low micromolar ( µM) concentrations of sulforaphane ( 2.4–31 µM) reduced the replication by 50% of six strains of SARS-CoV-2, including the delta and omicron variants, as well as that of the HCoV-OC43 coronavirus. The investigators also observed similar results with cells that had been previously infected with the viruses, in which the protective effects of sulforaphane were seen even with an already established virus infection.
The group also examined the effects of sulforaphane when combined with remdesivir, an antiviral medication used to shorten the recovery of hospitalized adults with COVID-19 infections. In their findings, remdesivir inhibited 50% of the replication of HCoV-OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 at 22 µM and 4 µM, respectively. Further, the research team reports that sulforaphane and remdesivir interacted synergistically at several combination ratios to reduce by 50% the viral burden in cells infected with HCoV-OC43 or SARS-CoV-2. In this context, synergism means that lower doses of both sulforaphane ( for example, 1.6–3.2 µM) and remdesivir ( for example, 0.5–3.2 µM), when combined, are more effective against the viruses than either applied alone.
“ Historically, we have learned that the combination of multiple compounds in a treatment regimen is an ideal strategy to treat viral infections, ” says Alvaro Ordonez, M.D., the first author of the paper and an assistant professor of pediatrics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “ The fact that sulforaphane and remdesivir work better combined than alone is very encouraging. ”
The researchers then conducted studies in a mouse model of SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found that giving 30 milligrams of sulforaphane per kilogram of body weight to mice before infecting them with the virus significantly decreased the loss of body weight that’ s typically associated with virus infection ( 7.5% decrease). Further, the pretreatment resulted in a statistically significant decrease in both the viral load, or amount of virus, in the lungs ( 17% decrease) and upper respiratory tract ( 9% decrease) as well as the amount of lung injury ( 29% decrease) compared with infected mice that were not given sulforaphane. The compound also decreased inflammation in the lungs, protecting the cells from a hyperactive immune response that seems to be one of the driving factors that has caused many people to die from COVID-19.
“ What we found is that sulforaphane is antiviral against HCoV-OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses while also helping control the immune response, ” Ordonez says. “ This multifunctional activity makes it an interesting compound to use against these viral infections, as well as those caused by other human coronaviruses. ”
The team plans to conduct studies in humans to evaluate if sulforaphane can be effective in preventing or treating these infections.
“ Despite the introduction of vaccines and other medications that can have side effects, effective antiviral agents are still necessary to prevent and treat COVID-19, particularly considering the potential effects of new coronavirus variants arising in the population, ” Jones-Brando says. “ Sulforaphane could be a promising treatment that is less expensive, safe, and readily available commercially. ”
Reference: “ Sulforaphane exhibits antiviral activity against pandemic SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV-OC43 coronaviruses in vitro and in mice ” by Alvaro A. Ordonez, C. Korin Bullen, Andres F. Villabona-Rueda, Elizabeth A. Thompson, Mitchell L. Turner, Vanessa F. Merino, Yu Yan, John Kim, Stephanie L. Davis, Oliver Komm, Jonathan D. Powell, Franco R. D’ Alessio, Robert H. Yolken, Sanjay K. Jain and Lorraine Jones-Brando, 18 March 2022, Communications Biology. DOI: 10.1038/s42003-022-03189-z
Along with Jones-Brando and Ordonez, other Johns Hopkins Medicine authors of the paper include C. Korin Bullen, Andres F. Villabona-Rueda, Elizabeth A. Thompson, Mitchell L. Turner, Vanessa F. Merino, Yu Yan, John Kim, Stephanie L. Davis, Oliver Komm, Jonathan D. Powell, Franco R. D’ Alessio, Robert H. Yolken and Sanjay K. Jain.
The study was funded by the National Institutes of Health, Mercatus Center, the Center for Infection and Inflammation Imaging Research at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the Stanley Medical Research Institute.
Jones-Brando, Ordonez, Yolken and Jain are co-inventors on a pending patent application ( USPA 22 719 # 63/142,598), “ Methods for inhibiting coronaviruses using sulforaphane ” filed by The Johns Hopkins University. All other authors have no competing interests | tech |
Op-Ed: Five reasons why Tatjana Marjanovic should win the 2022 Indie Series Award for ‘ Best Actress — Drama ' | Hi, what are you looking for?
Tatjana Marjanovic is one of the six nominees for the “ Best Lead Actress — Drama ” 2022 Indie Series Award.
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Tatjana Marjanovic is one of the six nominees vying for the “ Best Lead Actress — Drama ” 2022 Indie Series Award. She deserves to win for her work in the digital series “ Purgatory. ”
First and foremost, Marjanovic was the voice of reason as Lisa in the digital drama series “ Purgatory, ” which aired on Popstar! TV.
Second, Marjanovic had some great, standout scenes with “ Purgatory ” co-star Erik Fellows, who played the former con, Bobby. She showed the vulnerable side of Lisa, as well as the bold and angry side, where she emerged as a strong heroine.
Third, she was memorable in Season 2 of “ Purgatory ” during her intense scenes with Bobby when his character was getting crazier.
Fourth, Lisa is able to subvert all of the audience’ s expectations of her. She learns to grow and adapt from a pampered princess into a strong-willed and badass character that stands firmly on her ground, in an effort to survive and thrive in a cave.
Fifth and finally, Digital Journal hailed her acting performance in this series as “ Emmy-worthy, ” and rightfully so. Her acting truly ran the gamut in “ Purgatory. ”
“ Purgatory ” is available for streaming on Popstar! TV.
The 2022 Indie Series Awards will take place on Thursday, April 7, 2022, at The Colony Theatre in Burbank, California.
For more information on the 2022 Indie Series Award nominees, check out the official website.
To learn more about Tatjana Marjanovic, follow her on Instagram.
Markos Papadatos is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for Music News. Papadatos is a Greek-American journalist and educator that has authored over 17,000 original articles over the past 16 years. He has interviewed some of the biggest names in music, entertainment, lifestyle, magic, and sports. He is a six-time consecutive `` Best of Long Island '' winner, and in the past three years, he was honored as the `` Best Long Island Personality '' in Arts & Entertainment, an honor that has gone to Billy Joel six times.
Under a shattered crescent hanger at Ukraine's Gostomel Airport the world's largest plane lies buckled and broken.
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Rahm Emanuel’ s forceful style gets unexpected welcome in Japan | When U.S. President Joe Biden held a video summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in January, the American president joked that his counterpart should be careful with the incoming U.S. ambassador.
Rahm Emanuel — the former Chicago mayor and long-time Democratic Party insider with a reputation for butting heads — seemed like an odd fit for a diplomatic post in a conservative country where change is often glacial. In the meeting with Kishida, Biden reassured the Japanese leader that Emanuel had his complete trust, according to an official with knowledge of the talks.
So far, Emanuel appears to be causing less friction than during his eight tumultuous years in City Hall. Fellow diplomats and Japanese officials say Emanuel’ s hands-on approach at least in part explains Tokyo’ s surprisingly forceful response to Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine.
“ Everybody said it’ s unbelievably slow and it’ s going to be a torturous process, ” Emanuel, 62, said in an interview with Bloomberg News on March 17 at his residence in the Japanese capital. “ I’ m sure I’ ll run into it. But … that hasn’ t been the case. ”
While Japan’ s decision to sanction Russia is based on its own strategic interests — including deterring any similar action by China against Taiwan — the rapid clampdown stands in contrast to its muted response in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. Not only has the government stripped Russia of its most-favored-nation trade status and frozen assets, but Japanese companies have also halted business in Russia.
Officials in Japan say Emanuel, the onetime chief of staff to former U.S. President Barack Obama whose combative style earned him the nickname “ Rahmbo, ” has brought to the post a degree of political savvy not seen in decades.
“ The speed with which Japan came completely on board with U.S. and ( Group of Seven) sanctions on Russia must be due at least in part to the effective communications facilitated by Ambassador Emanuel, ” said Jan Adams, Australia’ s ambassador to Tokyo, herself a veteran of trade negotiations with Japan. “ There’ s nothing like the political appointment that’ s so close to the president, the White House, the party and the Congress. ”
Emanuel’ s appointment, confirmed in December despite some objections from within the Democratic Party, ended a gap of 2½ years with no envoy in place from Japan’ s sole treaty ally. While Caroline Kennedy brought star power to the job under the Obama administration, few with Emanuel’ s political experience and contacts have been picked for the post.
He began to influence events before setting foot in Tokyo in January, according to Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara, a close aide to Kishida, and a senior diplomat at the U.S. Embassy who asked not to be named. Both credit him with pulling together the virtual summit in January. The U.S. official said he also helped resolve the problem of COVID-19 cases linked to U.S. military bases in Japan that threatened to sour ties, reaching out directly to Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“ He’ s in Japan, but he’ s showing American leadership inside Japan, in the same way as in Washington, ” said Kihara, who has met with Emanuel several times. By bringing together Tokyo-based envoys from G7 and European countries to discuss Ukraine, he’ s created a kind of U.S. “ hub ” that could in the future support the Free and Open Indo-Pacific agenda, he added.
Emanuel played a key role in reaching a partial agreement to lift Section 232 tariffs on Japanese steel that had rankled Tokyo since their imposition in 2018 by then-President Donald Trump. Trade Minister Koichi Hagiuda cited a request from Emanuel as one reason Japan agreed to divert some liquefied natural gas to Europe if needed, ahead of the Russian attack.
A pledge to prioritize the case of Greg Kelly, a former Nissan Motor Co. director who was charged with helping Carlos Ghosn understate his compensation, was also checked off the to-do list when Emanuel waved the American citizen off at the airport this month after he received a suspended sentence. This week, a dispute over tariffs on U.S. beef imports has been resolved.
Each of these steps has been highlighted in frequent posts on Emanuel’ s Twitter feed, which also shows him breaking with tradition by walking to meetings with senior Japanese officials and catching the train, rather than the standard armored BMW, to visit the U.S. naval base at Yokosuka.
The U.S. ambassador has emphasized common ground with Japanese officials, giving the country’ s music-loving foreign minister, Yoshimasa Hayashi, an autographed guitar strap from Chicago Blues legend Buddy Guy. He’ s scheduled to join Kishida on Saturday for a tour of Hiroshima, the site of the first of two U.S. atomic bomb attacks at the end of World War II.
Emanuel said domestic and international circumstances were aligned for Japan to bolster its U.S. alliance. The war in Ukraine has renewed focus on the security challenges posed by China, and Kishida faces a July election in which he will want to showcase a close relationship with Biden and an ability to manage the alliance.
“ We are at a different moment in a different time that requires we modernize and strengthen it in a way and at a pace that has not been true for the last 40 years, ” Emanuel said. “ This is a unique opportunity. ”
Emperor Naruhito receives credentials from new U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel during a ceremony at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo on Friday. | IMPERIAL HOUSEHOLD AGENCY OF JAPAN / VIA REUTERS
Stronger ties could enable the U.S. to be closely involved as Japan revises documents that define its security and defense strategy this year. They could also help in building an alternative economic framework to the regional Trans-Pacific Partnership which was rejected by Trump when he came to office in 2017.
Nonetheless, there’ s a limit to how much one person can sway a relationship that’ s remained largely solid since the end of the U.S. occupation 70 years ago.
While Japan has broken new ground in the past few weeks, such as by shipping nonlethal military equipment to Ukraine, its Self-Defense Forces remain hemmed in by a pacifist Constitution unchanged since it was imposed by the U.S. after the war.
Kishida earlier this month told his ruling Liberal Democratic Party he planned to bolster Japan’ s defenses, strengthen the U.S. alliance and press harder for reform of the United Nations in response to Russia’ s invasion. But he’ s shut down suggestions of “ nuclear sharing ” with the U.S.
While sanctions on Russia are popular with Japanese voters, polls show few are in favor of direct military aid for Ukraine. The government has steered clear of banning energy imports or ending oil and LNG joint ventures with Russian entities, moves which might damage the economy.
“ Japan does have restrictions, so there are things we can and can’ t do, ” Kihara said. “ But we’ ll do all we can. ” | tech |
India records 1,660 fresh Covid-19 cases, active infections below 20,000 | India’ s COVID-19 death toll climbed to 5,20,855 with 4,100 fatalities recorded in a day and Maharashtra reconciling the number of deaths caused by the viral disease in the state, the Union health ministry said on Saturday, Trend reports citing The Indian Express.
A total of 1,660 fresh cases have pushed the country’ s COVID-19 tally to 4,30,18,032, while the number of active cases has fallen below 20,000, according to the ministry’ s data updated at 8 am.
The number of active cases of the infection has declined to 16,741, the lowest in 702 days and accounting for 0.04 per cent of the total caseload. The national COVID-19 recovery rate was recorded at 98.75 per cent, the ministry said.
Maharashtra reported a high death toll because of the inclusion of non-Covid fatalities ( 4,005) reported till Friday. The state reported two fresh deaths caused by the viral disease in the last 24 hours, according to a media bulletin.
A reduction of 4,789 cases was recorded in the country’ s active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours.
The daily positivity rate was recorded at 0.25 per cent, while the weekly positivity rate was 0.29 per cent, according to the health ministry.
A total of 6,58,489 tests were conducted to detect the infection in the last 24 hours. India has so far conducted over 78.63 crore Covid tests.
The number of people who have recuperated has gone up to 4,24,80,436, while the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.21 per cent.
The cumulative number of Covid vaccine doses administered in the country has exceeded 182.87 crore. | general |
Private equity firms invest record $ 150 billion in healthcare sector | The private equity market closed deals worth more than $ 150 billion in the global healthcare sector in 2021, an absolute record for the industry, according to a new report by Bain & Company.
In the twelve months of 2021, total disclosed healthcare deal value more than doubled to $ 151 billion from $ 66 billion ( in 2018: $ 64 billion), on the back of 36% more deals, up from 380 in 2021 to 515 last year.
According to Bain & Company’ s research paper, the record number of deals stemmed partly from a pandemic-induced backlog of parked deals, as well as the revival of megadeals headlined by the $ 34 billion Medline deal and the $ 17 billion acquisition of Athenahealth.
Three others megadeals worth more than $ 5 billion closed last year ( Parexel International and Inovalon in the US and Cerba HealthCare in Europe), and as a result, the average disclosed deal value soared 134%. In comparison, in 2020 only one deal worth over $ 5 billion closed.
North America retained its position as the largest market for deal value, the region also reclaimed the top ranking for private equity deal volume from Asia-Pacific. Deal count in 2021 rose to 216, up from 142 in 2020. Disclosed value surged to $ 108 billion from $ 35 billion and was more than twice the previous high of $ 46.7 billion in 2019.
In Europe, deal count rose to 112 in 2021, a record, from 75 the year prior. Disclosed value also jumped to $ 26 billion from $ 14 billion, surpassing the previous high of $ 19.7 billion in 2019. In Asia Pacific, China contributed 66% of the region’ s deal volume, which ended the year at 179 from the previous record of 156 in 2020.
The Covid-19 pandemic not surprisingly was the foremost driver of healthcare deals, but according to Bain’ s researchers, a range of other factors also contributed significantly to the record levels.
“ Several structural trends continued to benefit healthcare companies. An aging population, the rising incidence of chronic illness, rising income levels and healthcare access in emerging markets, and digital innovations in treatment and operational processes combined to boost underlying demand for an array of healthcare goods and services, ” states the report.
At the side of financial sponsors, a huge stockpile of ‘ dry powder’ ( private equity capital that is waiting to be invested) – around $ 3.3 trillion – has helped boost the number and value of healthcare buyouts.
The growing competition for high-quality is luring new players into the market, such as infrastructure, pension funds, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds. In this slipstream, the number of healthcare-focused funds initiated in 2021 reached a record ( 358) and so did total capital raised, reaching roughly $ 93 billion.
Commenting on the outlook for 2022, Nirad Jain and Kara Murphy, Healthcare Private Equity leaders at Bain & Company, stated: “ Healthcare is enduring a period of discontinuity on several fronts, from the continued Covid-19 pandemic and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict, to digital-driven disruption and more. ”
“ No one can foresee the implications of these discontinuities in detail. Rather, the uncertainties inherent in a time of flux raise the importance of thorough diligence and early planning for value creation. Investors and executives of portfolio companies can benefit by regularly revisiting their portfolios. ” | general |
Jumbo-Visma aim to lower expectations around Tom Dumoulin's Giro d'Italia tilt: 'The victory will be too much | Tom Dumoulin should not be expected to win this May's Giro d'Italia, his Jumbo-Visma team have warned.
The Dutchman took an indefinite break from cycling at the beginning of 2021 to decide whether or not he wanted to continue the sport as his profession, before returning to racing last summer.
He is slated to make his Grand Tour return at the fast-approaching Giro d'Italia - a race he memorably won in 2017 - where he is adjudged to be one of the favourites alongside Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz and João Almeida.
Dumoulin, however, has had a disrupted start to his season, contracting Covid-19 after the UAE Tour and then withdrawing from this week's Volta a Catalunya on stage three.
He has since returned home to resume training and is set to spend three weeks training at altitude before the Giro, meaning he will enter the race on the back of just 12 race days.
Such a buildup has led Marc Reef, one of Jumbo-Visma's sports directors, to tell Cycling Weekly that the 31-year-old should not be viewed as one of the race favourites. Indeed, he will go into the race as co-leader alongside Tobias Foss.
`` We know that he won the Giro in 2017, was on the podium of both the Giro and the Tour de France the year after, but then he has had some difficult years, '' Reef said.
`` I think when you say is he going [ to the Giro ] for the victory... it's too much. For the GC, yes, it's the goal for sure, but what will that be? We don't know. But for sure the GC is our ambition.
`` Tom Dumoulin always has pressure. Expectations not only from him, but also from the Netherlands and cycling in general. They expect something from him when he's starting, so the pressure is always there.
`` We, from the team, we just say we do everything we can do, you work hard, we will work hard, and then we will see what the outcome will be. ''
Dumoulin returned to racing with a bang, become Dutch time trial champion and then placing second in the Olympics time trial for the second successive Games.
Post-Tokyo, however, Dumoulin has only completed 16 race days, meaning his true state of form is largely unknown.
> > > How faster and harder racing is changing the peloton: 'We're getting five percent better every year '
`` He was just not fit, and that's enough without going into detail what his problem was, '' Reef said about his early exit from Catalunya.
`` We are sure he had a good winter: he did a lot of really good training, he had a good February, but then he had the setback with corona.
`` Afterwards he did a few good training sessions again and he was on his way back. With all that he did in the winter, with the whole base he has, with a good period that is coming up, he will be ready for the Giro. '' | general |
Power of Grassroots Innovation: How a Nondescript Box Has Been Saving Lives During the COVID Pandemic | A do-it-yourself air purifier in use in a classroom. Credit: Douglas Hannah, CC BY-ND
One afternoon, a dozen Arizona State University students gathered to spend the morning cutting cardboard, taping fans, and assembling filters in an effort to build 125 portable air purifiers for local schools. That same morning, staff members at a homeless shelter in Los Angeles were setting up 20 homemade purifiers of their own, while in Brookline, Massachusetts, another DIY air purifier was whirring quietly in the back of a daycare classroom as children played.
The technology in all three cases – an unassuming duct tape-and-cardboard construction known as a Corsi-Rosenthal box – is playing an important part in the fight against COVID-19. The story of how it came to be also reveals a lot about communities as sources of innovation and resilience in the face of disasters.
As it became clear that COVID-19 was spread through airborne transmission, people started wearing masks and building managers rushed to upgrade their ventilation systems. This typically meant installing high-efficiency HEPA filters. These filters work by capturing virus-laden particles: Air is forced into a porous mat, contaminants are filtered out, and clean air passes through.
The efficacy of a building’ s ventilation system is governed by two factors, though, not just the quality of the filters. The amount of air moved through the ventilation systems matters as well. Experts typically recommend five to six air changes per hour in shared spaces, meaning the entire volume of air in a room is replaced every 45 minutes. Systems in many older buildings can’ t manage this volume, however.
Portable air filters are an option for augmenting ventilation systems, but they typically cost hundreds of dollars, which puts them out of range for schools and other public spaces that face budget constraints.
This is where the Corsi-Rosenthal box comes in. It’ s a cube consisting of four to five off-the-shelf furnace filters topped by a standard box fan blowing outward. Once sealed together with tape, it can sit on a floor, shelf or table. The fan draws air through the sides of the cube and out the top. The units are simple, durable, and easy to make, and are more effective than simply placing a single filter in front of a box fan. It usually takes 40 minutes, minimal technical expertise, and US $ 60 to $ 90 in materials that are available from any home supply store.
Building a Corsi-Rosenthal box portable air filter comes down to duct-taping together a set of furnace filters and a box fan. Credit: Douglas Hannah, CC BY-ND
Despite this simplicity, though, these homemade units are extremely effective. When used in a shared space like a classroom or hospital ward, they can supplement existing ventilation and remove airborne contaminants, including smoke and virus-laden particles. A raft of recent peer-reviewed research has found portable air purifiers can dramatically reduce aerosol transmission. Other preprint and under-review studies have found Corsi-Rosenthal boxes perform as well as professional units at a fraction of the cost.
The formal story of the Corsi-Rosenthal box began in August 2020, when Richard Corsi, an air quality expert and now dean at the University of California, Davis, pitched the idea of building cheap box-fan air filters on Twitter. Jim Rosenthal, the CEO of a Texas-based filter company, had been playing around with a similar idea and quickly built the first prototype.
Within days, tinkerers and air quality engineers alike were constructing their own Corsi-Rosenthal boxes and sharing the results on social media. A vibrant conversation emerged on Twitter, blending sophisticated technical analysis from engineers with the insight and efforts of nonspecialists.
By December, hundreds of people were making Corsi-Rosenthal boxes, and thousands more had read press coverage in outlets like Wired. In different corners of the world, people tweaked designs based on the availability of supplies and different needs. Their collective improvements and adaptations were documented by dedicated websites and blogs, as well as news reports.
In some cases, design tweaks proved to be influential. In November 2020, for example, a homeowner in North Carolina discovered an issue with air being drawn back in through the corners of the most commonly used square fans. Subsequent testing by air quality experts showed that adding a shroud to the fan increased efficiency by as much as 50%.
Analyzing social media and news coverage gives a sense of the scale of the Corsi-Rosenthal box phenomenon. As of January 2022, more than 1,000 units were in use in schools, with thousands more in homes and offices. More than 3,500 people had used the hashtag # corsirosenthalbox on Twitter, and tens of thousands more contributed to the online conversation. News articles and explainer videos on YouTube had collectively accumulated more than 1.9 million views.
The story of the Corsi-Rosenthal box is part of a broader story of the grassroots response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The early days of the pandemic did more than just take a terrible toll on people. They also galvanized a massive entrepreneurial effort, with tens of thousands of everyday citizens lending their hands to design and produce the critical medical supplies and personal protective equipment that was suddenly needed.
Corsi-Rosenthal boxes assembled and awaiting delivery to a homeless shelter in California. Credit: Douglas Hannah, CC BY-ND
My research team has been tracking these efforts. Through dozens of interviews and months of archival research, we’ ve built a database of more than 200 startups – formal and informal, nonprofit and for-profit – whose activities ranged from designing oxygen concentrators to 3D printing face shields to building UV disinfection rooms. The picture of innovation that emerges is a far cry from the traditional lab coats and middle managers image that is commonly associated with new technologies.
First, few of the innovations we’ ve tracked were actually invented by a single person, or even a single team. Rather, they were the joint project of broad networks of individual contributors from different backgrounds and organizations. This breadth is important because it brings more knowledge and more diverse perspectives. It can also be helpful for tapping existing knowledge. For example, as Corsi-Rosenthal boxes gained traction, the community was able to draw on earlier iterations that had been developed to help with wildfire smoke.
Second, the innovation process lacked hierarchical control. There was no single person directing where or how the technology was used. This lack of control made it easier to experiment and adapt to local conditions. One example is the development of oxygen concentrators for use in hospitals in India. Realizing that existing Western technologies failed frequently in the more humid operating environment typical of India, teams of innovators rallied to develop and share improved open-source designs.
Third, these communities shared knowledge online. This allowed individual contributors to communicate directly and share ideas, which helped knowledge spread rapidly through the network. It also meant that knowledge was more readily accessible. The detailed designs and test results from air quality engineers working on Corsi-Rosenthal boxes were readily available to anyone in the community.
Also, most of the organizations we tracked used Facebook, Twitter and Slack as tools to manage collaboration within and between organizations. As I and others have argued, this gives grassroots innovation tremendous promise – especially in a world where large-scale disruptions like a pandemic are increasingly common.
Despite this promise, there are areas in which grassroots innovation communities falter. One challenge is a lack of technological sophistication and resources. While some of the communities in our study produced remarkably complex devices, the greatest contribution was in far simpler products like face shields and surgical gowns.
Then there are rules and regulations. Even when grassroots communities can produce safe and effective innovations, existing rules may not be ready to receive them. Some hospitals were unable to accept personal protective equipment provided by the community during the pandemic because of inflexible procurement policies, and today some schools continue to prohibit Corsi-Rosenthal boxes.
A final issue is sustaining effort. While grassroots communities were vital to allowing hospitals and medical facilities to remain functioning during the early days of the pandemic, many of the efforts that depended on volunteer labor eventually ran out of steam.
As the second anniversary of the U.S. declaration of emergency approaches, a key lesson the world has learned is the importance of investing in indoor air quality, for example through monitoring and improved ventilation and filtration. And the value of ventilation as a noninvasive public health tool is even greater as mask mandates wane.
Another, broader lesson is the power of grassroots innovation and citizen engineering to develop these technologies. The story of the Corsi-Rosenthal box, like the thousands of other grassroots innovations developed during the pandemic, is fundamentally about people taking the welfare of their communities into their own hands. The most popular tweet shared about Corsi-Rosenthal boxes was from a 14-year-old aspiring engineer in Ontario offering to build and donate boxes to anyone in need.
Written by Douglas Hannah, Assistant Professor of Strategy and Innovation, Boston University.
This article was first published in The Conversation. | tech |
Hospitals not safe for patients or staff due to Covid surge, warns trade union | The INMO has warned that the latest wave of Covid-19 means hospitals are not safe for patients ( Brian Lawless/PA)
Hospitals are not safe for patients or staff, the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation ( INMO) has warned.
Phil Ni Sheaghdha, the INMO General Secretary, said on Sunday that thanks to soaring Covid-19 cases, the health service is no longer a safe environment for healthcare workers or vulnerable patients.
“ The important point is that the pandemic is not over, ” she said.
“ We’ re very concerned about the focus at the moment on a general view that the pandemic no longer exists. Well, in Irish hospitals and in Irish healthcare facilities it most certainly is an extraordinary battle on a daily basis. ”
She said that staff were telling the trade union that hospitals were not safe, with Ireland recording tens of thousands of cases of Covid-19 in recent days and hospital numbers climbing to nearly 1,500.
“ The HSE’ s own figures and the outbreak incidences are way too high, ” Ms Ni Sheaghdha told RTÉ radio.
She said that “ more has to be done ” by the HSE and the Government.
“ If staff are saying this is how unsafe it is, well, then everybody can’ t remain silent.
“ It’ s unsafe for staff. It is most certainly is unsafe for patients. That should be a concern. ” | general |
How Reputation and Performance Insight Technology Could Change the Future of Marketing: An Interview with David Benigson of Signal AI | With today’ s online capabilities enabling information to spread like wildfire, one minor slip-up can cause extreme reputational damage. For corporations and organizations, maintaining a clean and professional reputation is essential to conducting successful business operations.
Marketing teams strive to achieve positive brand awareness, and corporations of higher stature are more likely to land partnerships. Security and reputational risks can always pose threats.
For these reasons, organizations may turn to reputation and performance insight technology to improve their operational efficiency and protect their reputations. These tools enable business leaders and decision-makers to understand the status, changes, and trends of their reputation and business performance.
While there are various software solutions available on the market for managing reputational risks and performance, Signal AI’ s tool utilizes a unique approach for maintaining security and managing reputation’ s impact on business performance. The global decision augmentation company harnesses AI technology with metrics that enable users to run high-level analyses and aggregations.
In addition, Signal AI’ s technology is built on knowledge graph principles for mapping reputational data and showing shifts over time. Its new API suite supports topic mapping for enhanced analysis of organizational reputation and risk data. This solution provides users with access to new quantifiable reputation risk data for better insights and informed decision-making.
CIO Insight interviewed David Bengison, CEO of Signal AI, to discuss the company’ s software, its influence on business operations, the future of reputational software technology, and more.
Benigson: Even before the pandemic, the global business environment was quietly evolving in the face of two key forces. The first was a huge boom in business intelligence and the need for comprehensive, data-driven decision-making. And the other was the rise of ESG as a serious factor in corporate strategy and success.
This fact is evidenced by our recent research that showed that a whopping 72 percent of business leaders see reputation as a stronger driver of business performance than the margin in the next five years. And the fact is that without sophisticated data and an equally advanced means of analyzing it, organizations stand virtually no chance of successfully tracking and maintaining their reputations in a way that will keep them in the best reputational light.
Enter AI. Through advances in AI and next-gen data science, it is now possible for organizations, their comms teams, and agency partners to not just monitor reputation in real-time but proactively identify possible risks, avoid them and then recalibrate.
Moreover, organizations can now set reputation goals such as “ we want to be known as the most innovative financial services brand by 2030 ” and have metrics to measure how well they perform against these stated objectives. This is a far cry from the reactive world many brands live in today and allows organizations to finally take control of their reputations in a way they simply haven’ t been able to before.
Benigson: Data is the lifeblood of every decision a business makes…that is, except when it comes to their comms and reputation management operations. All too often today, while the rest of an organization is speeding toward a new data-driven future, comms teams are stuck in yesteryear using outdated methodologies and guesswork to try to deliver communications success.
The result? Instead of being in a position to dictate their own future, businesses are constantly on the backfoot and waiting for issues to arise. This is largely due to many organizations not realizing that the tools are now available for them to become more progressive in their reputation management, or decision-makers don’ t see the value of data and thus decide to “ stick with what they know. ” Either way, this state of play needs to change if organizations have any chance of finding reputation success today.
Benigson: Because of how long static and reactive reputation management has prevailed in the business world, there really isn’ t a business arm or industry that can’ t benefit from the switch to a real-time approach.
For example, before launching a new ESG initiative, organizations can use real-time tools to scientifically assess media sentiment and key trend areas to identify opportunities where they might be able to deliver the most impact instead of banking on rudimentary analysis.
Furthermore, organizations can use real-time data to understand the media sentiment or proximity to topics around their organizations better ahead of key events—such as annual meetings or earnings announcements—and take proactive steps to position themselves as best as possible instead of relying on guesswork.
Benigson: Our decision augmentation solution provides a new kind of external intelligence fit for the modern world business leaders now have to navigate. We are constantly thinking about how we can deliver insights to power an entire organization, not just one specific business function or another. And to deliver that, we believe that you have to go beyond just simple media monitoring and dig into what is underneath.
For example, to truly understand an organization’ s place in the market and its opportunities and hurdles, you need to be able to easily synthesize a myriad of factors. These include which topics the organization is most associated with, how prevalent it is in the public consciousness, how it stacks up to competitors, what risks a company faces as a result of a breaking trend in a far-off part of the world, and much, much more.
These capabilities—alongside our endless organizational push to create a hub for all of the insights a company needs—separate our platform from the rest in this space.
Benigson: Our AI-powered knowledge graph can track an organization’ s proximity to a topic in the media and see how this shifts over time, from established topics the company is known for to new topics that they may want to be known for.
At Signal AI, we work with business and comms leaders to establish scoring methodologies that sit alongside company goals. For example, an ESG framework can measure real-time pillars and topics the company wants to be known for and is also actively working on.
We have standard measurement frameworks, but what is most valuable to our customers is the work we do in supporting them to index business priorities. The index can be used in reporting, but also as a live litmus as to where external narratives are headed. It forms an external intelligence radar.
Benigson: Given how interconnected the business world is today, enterprise brands really can not afford to not have their fingers on the pulse of what is happening at every moment of the day. Therefore, they need access to the insights around not just their own branded terms, but also around any topics that relate to both their brand and those of their competitors.
Moreover, since the business world is perennially speeding up, and conditions around a company’ s ecosystem are constantly evolving, businesses simply can’ t rely on periodically updated data anymore. There is a strong chance that insights from that morning have changed by that evening, so real-time data has become a prerequisite for business success today.
Benigson: Brands are largely aware of the importance of key terms related to their company or competitors, as well as known-unknowns. However, they still almost universally struggle to monitor for unknown-unknowns—items that they had no idea would potentially impact their reputation—and thus are routinely left with unwelcome surprises.
A good example of this would be detecting anomalies. All too often, companies may see a spike in coverage around a particular event—a labor strike within a particular industry in another country, for example. But because they don’ t see an obvious direct correlation between the incident and their organization, they may not take any proactive action until it comes back to bite them later.
This is just one example of how the Signal AI platform can help organizations keep tabs on evolving areas of risk and opportunity and connect the dots between how those areas could potentially impact their reputation and business performance.
Benigson: Many companies have a good grasp on their internal data and are already making confident decisions based on that data. For example, commercial teams use Salesforce data to spot risks and opportunities or trends, and talent teams use eNPS data to spot areas of improvement for employee engagement. Internal data has been driving strategic decision-making for some time.
What organizations don’ t understand as well is their external intelligence—the things happening outside their company that can have dire effects on the fortunes of the company, or indeed contain potent opportunities.
With the emergence of ESG and related reputational issues that have a direct impact on company performance, having a decision-making “ sat nav ” for these external factors is going to impact many industries, from fund management to insurance to tax and regulation. Having a way to make sense of the external data that will affect your industry is key.
Benigson: Prior to the mass digital transformation efforts that gripped the business world during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were definitely industries that saw the value in being as data-driven as possible. However, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, virtually every industry has now seen the virtues of having data as another core tenet in their business intelligence and decision-making. This includes reputation management.
That said, many businesses are still in the early stages of adopting AI for reputation management. They are just beginning to see the value of top-level benefits like having real-time monitoring capabilities. But, as AI becomes more synonymous with reputation measurement and management, we will see a push among businesses for tools to deliver more intuitive insights.
Thus, the biggest priority for the AI industry over the next few years needs to find ways to innovate and push their tech capabilities even further to keep up with market expectations.
David Benigson is Chief Executive Officer and founder of decision augmentation company Signal AI. He, Miguel Martinez, and Wesley Hall founded Signal AI in 2013 to use automated intelligence to augment the process of accessing and analyzing business-related news.
Signal AI has become one of the world’ s fastest-growing applied AI companies, conducting business with multiple Global Fortune 1000 businesses and offices in London, New York, and Hong Kong. So far, the company has seen much support, and they have gained a current total funding amount of $ 101,600,000.
Note: This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
CIO Insight offers thought leadership and best practices in the IT security and management industry while providing expert recommendations on software solutions for IT leaders. It is the trusted resource for security professionals who need to maintain regulatory compliance for their teams and organizations. CIO Insight is an ideal website for IT decision makers, systems integrators and administrators, and IT managers to stay informed about emerging technologies, software developments and trends in the IT security and management industry.
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India-China talks: Border peace must, follow independent policy on India, Jaishankar to Wang Yi | India and China discussed the border situation as well as Beijing’ s leaning towards Pakistan during three-hour talks between visiting Chinese Minister Wang Yi and EAM S Jaishankar here today, Trend reports citing The Tribune.
Earlier in the day, Wang met NSA Ajit Doval after arriving from Kabul last night for a visit the Chinese side did not want to announce. On being invited to China, Doval told Wang he would do so after immediate issues were resolved.
Jaishankar said progress had been made in resolving issues as regards various friction areas along the LAC and that talks today focused on taking forward the momentum in case of remaining areas. Jaishankar told Wang India found his observations on Kashmir at the OIC ministerial in Islamabad objectionable. “ It was a subject discussed at some length. There was a larger context. We hope China will follow an independent foreign policy with respect to India and not allow its policy to be influenced by others, ” he said.
“ Our effort is to sort out the issue in entirety and look at de-escalation. The challenge has been to implement the agreements on the ground. It is a work-in-progress, obviously at a slower pace than desirable. My discussions were aimed at expediting that process, ” he said.
“ Peace and tranquility in border areas is the basis to move forward on bilateral ties and the answer in that sense can not become normal till there is an abnormal presence of troops in large numbers, ” he added. Jaishankar also “ took up strongly ” the predicament of Indian students studying in China who haven’ t been allowed to return, citing Covid restrictions. “ We hope China will take a non-discriminatory approach since it involves future of many young people, ” he said, adding that Wang said he would speak to the authorities concerned in that regard.
On Ukraine, he said, “ A common element was that both agreed on the importance of immediate ceasefire and return to diplomacy and dialogue. ”
The issue of terror also came up and the minister spoke about concerns with respect to Pakistan.
In a statement, Wang said China and India should “ put the differences on the boundary issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations ” and maintained “ China does not pursue the so-called unipolar Asia ( approach) and respects India’ s traditional role in the region ”.
“ The whole world will pay attention when China and India work hand in hand, ” he said. | general |
housing – Chemicals and the Economy | Understand market developments and complex data and what they mean to you.
Thousands of decisions are taken every day supported by ICIS data.
Access a host of content brought to you by ICIS Experts from around the world.
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“ ICIS price forecasts have helped us allocate resources smartly and efficiently, to anticipate price changes, and to buy PP at favourable prices. The reports have saved our internal team a lot of time and effort when analysing pricing trends. ”
This is why we are facing a K-shaped recession. Companies and investors have a difficult time ahead. They not only have to navigate a potentially major downturn. But they also have to completely reposition their portfolios for the New Normal world that will follow.
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Net Zero is clearly the key issue of our time. With COP26 about to start, 3 key elements need to come together to ensure success. Political leaders have to agree to meet the Net Zero targets, and to provide $ 100bn/year to help poorer nations fund the changes needed. But nothing will happen on the ground [ … ]
China is at the start of its biggest economic shake-up since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping launched his post-Mao reform programme. President Xi Jinping’ s ‘ Common Prosperity’ policy aims to retain his focus on increasing living standards. But it wants to spread the wealth far more widely. The electricity rationing now underway across China highlights the need [ … ]
“ How did you go bankrupt? ” Bill asked. “ Two ways, ” Mike said. “ Gradually, then suddenly. ” These lines from Ernest Hemingway’ s classic novel “ Fiesta ” ( USA title ‘ The Sun also Rises’), summarise where we now are with Evergrande’ s likely default in China. It did indeed begin “ gradually ” at first – starting in February 2016. As I noted here [ … ]
Major new opportunities are starting to appear in today’ s New Normal world, as I describe in a new analysis for the Institution of Chemical Engineers. Please click here to read the full article. We are set to enter a “ New Normal ” world as economies slowly reopen again with the arrival of Covid-19 vaccines. This will [ … ]
A year ago, many were suggesting the lockdowns might produce a “ baby boom ” as couples spent more time together. But early data suggests the world is instead seeing a “ baby bust ”. As Nikkei Asia reports: “ Births ( in December/January) have fallen between 10% and 20% in such countries as Japan, France and Spain — and even [ … ]
Every now and then, people wake up to the fact that debt is only good news when it adds to growth. Otherwise, it simply destroys value. China is usually the case study for this analysis, as the chart confirms. It shows the rise in debt from 2002, when official data begins, versus the rise in [ … ]
Everyone who has ever played the Beer Distribution Game on a training course knows what is happening in supply chains today. A small increase in underlying demand is rapidly leading to a massive increase in ‘ apparent demand’. As the New York Times reports, “ the pandemic has disrupted every stage of the ( supply chain) journey. ” And [ … ]
10 years ago, I took a look ahead at what we could expect in the next decade, as discussed last week. Unfortunately, we now face the major economic and social crises that the chart predicted, if policymakers continued with ‘ business as usual’. This week, I want to look ahead at what we can expect to [ … ]
ICIS is part of the LexisNexis® Risk Solutions Group portfolio of brands. | general |
Ukraine-Russia: how the crisis could reshape petrochemicals demand – Asian Chemical Connections | Understand market developments and complex data and what they mean to you.
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“ ICIS price forecasts have helped us allocate resources smartly and efficiently, to anticipate price changes, and to buy PP at favourable prices. The reports have saved our internal team a lot of time and effort when analysing pricing trends. ”
WHEN CORONAVIRUS first became a pandemic, I flagged- up that government intervention would play a critical role in shaping petrochemicals.
This proved to be the case as government cheques in the developed world were spent on computers, game consoles, washing machines and refrigerators made in China that were manufactured from domestically produced and imported petrochemicals and polymers.
The tide that lifted China’ s economic boat, as it recovered from the pandemic in H2 2020, was hugely beneficial for the whole of the global petrochemicals business.
The nature of developed-world government stimulus was also very different than during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC).
During the GFC, lower-paid workers were left to largely carry the can for sub-prime lending errors as the “ too big to fail ” banks were bailed out.
In 2020 and 2021, money flowed into to job furlough and income support schemes that left some lower-paid workers better off during the pandemic than before it began.
Combine this with all the extra polymers consumption that came from people eating more supermarket food and less in restaurants ( increased “ surface area ” demand) and the boom in internet sales ( online deliveries use a lot of plastic packaging), and this explains why demand for resins such as polyethylene ( PE) performed extremely well relative to the declines in GDP.
Further demand support came from all the syringes, personal protective equipment, face masks and medical packaging required to combat the pandemic.
I therefore don’ t buy the view that the Ukraine-Russia conflict has interrupted a petrochemicals industry recovery that would otherwise have gained lots more momentum this year.
In several key end-use sectors such as white goods, electronics and packaging, there was no real downturn in the first place. Without a downturn there can not be a recovery. Hence, I see it as misleading to talk about the Ukraine-Russia conflict stalling a recovery in 2022.
In 2021 over 2020, US LLDPE demand grew by a further 6% as GDP growth returned to a positive 4%. The EU plus the UK saw a 6% LLDPE demand growth and a 6% rise in GDP.
Patterns of demand growth versus GDP were very similar in several other major petrochemicals and polymers.
With this misconception out of the way, let me move onto some preliminary thoughts about the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on petrochemicals demand in the developed world.
On 13 February, I focused on what I believed were the factors that would drive PE demand in 2022 in the developed world and China. Some must not all of the factors have been changed by Ukraine-Russia.
I hope what follows helps as a first pass at describing the new environment in which our industry is operating, as I focus here only on the developed world. I will revisit China in a later post. I discussed the developing world in my post on 23 March.
Underpinning the revised demand drivers – which this time I see applying to all petrochemicals and polymers -– is my belief that there will be no quick resolution to the crisis. Let’ s hope I am wrong.
If you are a petrochemicals company with internal access to most if not all your hydrocarbon feedstocks, your cost pressures may not be that bad.
Perhaps your upstream naphtha and LPG supplier will help share the huge profits being made from soaring energy prices through more favourable transfer pricing. Perhaps not. This will hinge on internal and often non-transparent transfer pricing mechanisms.
But for the standalone petrochemical companies with little or no access to internal feedstocks, this is a cost crisis on an historic scale.
When it comes to petrochemicals demand – as I have argued above – the outlook is extremely complex. This underlines why multiples over GDP no longer work as a methodology for assessing petrochemicals demand.
Understanding demand requires deep and constant end-use by end-use analysis, leading to far more flexible sales and plant operating tactics than has been the case in the past.
And as this crisis morphs into what I believe will be a long-running Cold War, new demand opportunities will emerge as globalisation goes into reverse and the world splits into two manufacturing blocs. More on this in later posts.
ICIS is part of the LexisNexis® Risk Solutions Group portfolio of brands. | general |
Boeing's problems in China go far beyond the latest grounding |
Another Boeing
plane has been grounded
after a
fatal crash,
this time
in China
. That may be the least of the company's problems in a crucial market.
The decision to ground the
Boeing model 737-800
was made by China Eastern Airlines, which operated the jet that crashed March 21, killing all 132 on board. The cause of the crash has yet to be determined, and the grounding could be lifted soon if it turns out the cause was not mechanical.
But Boeing has plenty of other troubles in China, the world's largest aviation market. It is on the verge of being virtually shut out of the region as
trade tensions
between the United States and China have basically halted Boeing sales in the country for the last four years. The company has not announced any sales to a Chinese passenger airline since November 2017. Only six months ago, Boeing projected the Chinese market would be worth $ 1.5 trillion in commercial aircraft purchases over the next 20 years.
It takes a long time to build and deliver planes after they're ordered, and Boeing continued to deliver jets to China's airlines and leasing companies in 2018 and early 2019. But only 40 of them have been delivered since March 2019. That's when aviation authorities around the globe grounded Boeing's bestselling jet, the 737 Max, after
two fatal crashes
were found to have been caused by a design flaw. That
grounding
stretched on for
20 months
.
The US Federal Aviation Administration
cleared the plane to carry passengers
again in November 2020, with most other countries ' aviation authorities following close behind. Airlines that owned the 737 Max were
soon flying the plane
again.
Read More
But not in China, where the
aviation regulator
— one of the first to ground the Max after the second accident — waited another year to clear the plane to fly. Chinese airlines that own the planes still have not returned them to service.
`` We would now expect further delays to Chinese reinstatement of the 737 Max while this accident is investigated, at least until a likely cause is identified, '' said a note this week from Melius Research.
Key market
Losing a market as important as
China would be a devastating blow to
Boeing
(
BA
)
, which has been hit by one problem after another over the last three years, starting with the 737 Max crashes and then the
pandemic
, which all but obliterated demand for flying and devastated the finances of its airline customers. More recently, there have been issues with its latest model, the
787 Dreamliner
, halting deliveries.
In 2017 and 2018 China accounted for more than 20% of Boeing's global deliveries, but since the start of 2020 the percentage has dropped to below 5%. ( Boeing gets most of its revenue when a plane is delivered.)
China Eastern Airlines grounds 223 Boeing 737-800 aircraft after crash
Some experts believe Boeing has reached agreements to sell some planes to Chinese airlines in the last four years, either through a leasing company or via sales in which the name of the buyer is not made public. But no aircraft orders are official without approval from the Chinese government, which views plane sales as leverage in its negotiations with the United States on overall trade issues, said Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst with AeroDynamic Advisory.
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told investors in October, `` We remain in active discussions with our Chinese customers on their fleet planning needs and continue to urge leaders in both countries to resolve trade differences. ''
The longer the current grounding drags on, the more Boeing is at serious risk of losing out on the Chinese market, analysts say.
Typically, an airline is reluctant to switch between aircraft manufacturers because such a pivotal change increases the cost of pilot training and makes spare parts more costly. If Chinese customers with Boeing planes in their fleets were to start buying jets from rival
Airbus
(
EADSF
)
, it would be a long-term shift not easily reversed, and one made by the Chinese government rather than the airlines.
`` Boeing has its fans over there. But a political mandate in China is a political mandate, '' Aboulafia said.
He and other experts expect Boeing will eventually get back some sales and deliveries in China, but at a much lower number than it was counting on just a few years ago.
China `` can get some planes they need from Airbus, but they can't get all their planes from Airbus, '' said Ronald Epstein, aerospace analyst with Bank of America.
Aboulafia describes the relationship between China and Boeing as a `` bad marriage with no possibility of divorce. ''
The only good news for Boeing is China's aviation sector is not as important as it appeared it would be a decade ago, when experts were projecting the market would account for 30% of all global commercial jet purchases. China's aviation industry was slowing even before the pandemic, Aboulafia said, from a 12.2% growth rate in 2018's fourth quarter to 5.3% a year later, just before the outbreak of Covid came to light.
If Boeing loses much of the Chinese market long-term, it will be relegated to being a permanent No. 2 behind Airbus. Global commercial jet sales are essentially a
duopoly between the two companies
. Being a permanent No. 2 would put Boeing at a long-term competitive disadvantage, Epstein said. | general |
Why virtual assistants fail and how to fix them | We are excited to bring Transform 2022 back in-person July 19 and virtually July 20 - August 3. Join AI and data leaders for insightful talks and exciting networking opportunities. Learn more about Transform 2022
Most of us have had frustrating experiences with a virtual assistant. This isn’ t always the virtual assistant’ s fault. After all, most of the time when we call in to a company, we’ re calling to solve some sort of problem — an insurance claim we disagree with, a service outage — and we’ re often frustrated to begin with. The virtual assistant doesn’ t quite understand the problem, and the person we eventually speak to isn’ t the right person to solve it, sending us through what people in the industry sometimes call the “ spiral of misery. ”
And yet, as the last two years have shown us, there are often going to be times when human-staffed call centers will inevitably come up short, from businesses transitioning tens of thousands of employees to work-from-home, to crisis response and providing public health information during a pandemic. In these situations, human assistance needs to be directed toward solving more critical and complex problems, not answering the same four questions over and over and over again.
In my years of experience building virtual assistants for large companies and governments, I’ ve learned that one of the main reasons many virtual assistants fall short is because they were built either by developers who lack business or user context, or by business professionals who didn’ t have the coding skills or system insights to build a sophisticated experience.
To provide a helpful experience to users and customers, a conversational AI needs to reflect the entire breadth of the business’ s knowledge, drawing on insights from customer service assistants, marketers, sales, experience-design leaders, and more. If you are thinking of looking to virtual assistants to help you solve customer care-related challenges, here are a few steps you can take to ensure you build a frictionless experience for your end users.
The COVID-19 pandemic was a perfect storm for virtual assistants, with hundreds of thousands of people needing chat help. It was also a time when organizations had to build new services essentially overnight, as was the case with one hospital we worked with that needed a virtual assistant that could help triage COVID-19 care. Fueled by a powerful combination of need and desire, the organization brought all the important stakeholders together — doctors, attorneys, administrators, public health officials, developers — and worked through each element of the solution together. Because all the relevant parties had buy-in from the beginning, when an issue or point of confusion was raised, it got addressed. By incorporating the right perspectives, they were able to rapidly build a working solution.
A lot of virtual assistants also fail because the creators don’ t do enough user research or take the time to gather the right data. Even if you have a clear idea of what the assistant is trying to accomplish — say, something as simple as showing a customer movie times — that doesn’ t mean you have the data about how people ask for movie times. Some customer care areas, like healthcare or financial services, can also be particularly confusing. Users might not know which documents they need, or what the document they need is even called. Without reliable data about how these users ask questions and explain their problems, a virtual assistant is only going to frustrate them.
The best place to find this data is to get close to the source: inputs that a human made into some sort of virtual assistant. Perhaps you have an old or defunct chatbot with user data you can mine, or you can create a simple one to gather the data needed to make a refined product. If you can’ t do that, perhaps you have an on-site search engine, or call logs from your existing customer care lines. Using expressions people have actually used can help you train a more responsive and context-aware natural language processing model. Humans talk differently to humans, chat bots, and search engines, so you’ ll need to adapt your initial training data over time.
Another reason it’ s important to build lots of perspectives into your virtual assistant is you need to get a clear visualization of your end user. Most businesses design a virtual assistant with a focus on what they want to get out of it, as opposed to centering on the customer that’ s going to be using the product and the situation they may be in. A simple example is documentation. Most people don’ t have their bills and log-in information in front of them. They probably don’ t remember the exact day they paid their last bill or when the transaction in question took place. For a virtual assistant to walk that customer through a transaction, its designers need to have a clear picture of that customer’ s situation, down to where and how they are calling or typing in and the likely reasons.
A good industry rule of thumb is the 80/20 rule. The idea is basically that 80% of customer requests are related to 20% of the topics you need to cover. In other words, 80% of the requests your virtual assistant will receive will likely be related to your top four or five most common question types. On the other hand, the remaining 20% of your chats could be any one of a thousand different questions, so many that you could never code them all. Automating the most common customer interactions is the only way you can free up call centers to handle the interactions that are too complicated for you to predict or code.
As a technologist, I feel like it’ s okay for me to say this: We tend to write awful dialogue. When technologists make decision trees, they think way too hard about details like classifiers and branching while neglecting the big picture user experience. I’ ve found that our dialogue is also, frankly, kind of rude or overly direct.
On the flip side, non-experts aren’ t very good at training models. You might have one intent with way more training data than the other, which can make your virtual assistant inaccurate. It’ s critical to remember that every piece of text you add to a virtual assistant’ s logic influences the system. Indiscriminately adding data can wind up inadvertently teaching your model things you didn’ t mean to. Garbage in, garbage out. Dialogue needs to be empathetic and human, but it also needs to be written with an eye toward a balanced system that addresses sampling bias. In other words, your model should be trained on representative data, so if half of your users use the word ‘ password’ and half use the word ‘ PIN’, training data should include roughly 50% usage of ‘ PIN,’ 50% of ‘ password,’ but not 100% of either one.
Looking ahead to the future, there’ s reason to believe we’ ll be engaging a great deal more with virtual assistants, even when we’ re not experiencing a crisis. New kinds of natural language processing can learn how to interpret context, as opposed to relying on sprawling word-trees of queries that need to be rigorously maintained. We can now build virtual assistants that can interpret from your browsing behavior what you might be looking for, or what kind of problem you’ re likely to be having. As this technology continues to improve, we can work together as an industry to create AI that helps consumers solve once-frustrating everyday problems.
Thanks to a stronger understanding of these best practices surrounding virtual assistants and conversational AI, virtual assistants have gotten much more powerful and intuitive in only the last few years. As the underlying AI that powers them continues to improve as well, we will continue to see virtual assistants play a growing role in helping people manage their lives.
Andrew R. Freed is a Senior Technical Staff Member and Master Inventor at IBM. He is the author of Conversational AI, published at Manning Publications and has over 100 software patents.
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How AI is creating a safer online world | We are excited to bring Transform 2022 back in-person July 19 and virtually July 20 - August 3. Join AI and data leaders for insightful talks and exciting networking opportunities. Learn more about Transform 2022
From social media cyberbullying to assault in the metaverse, the Internet can be a dangerous place. Online content moderation is one of the most important ways companies can make their platforms safer for users.
However, moderating content is no easy task. The volume of content online is staggering. Moderators must contend with everything from hate speech and terrorist propaganda to nudity and gore. The digital world’ s “ data overload ” is only compounded by the fact that much of the content is user-generated and can be difficult to identify and categorize.
That’ s where AI comes in. By using machine learning algorithms to identify and categorize content, companies can identify unsafe content as soon as it is created, instead of waiting hours or days for human review, thereby reducing the number of people exposed to unsafe content.
For instance, Twitter uses AI to identify and remove terrorist propaganda from its platform. AI flags over half of tweets that violate its terms of service, while CEO Parag Agrawal has made it his focus to use AI to identify hate speech and misinformation. That said, more needs to be done, as toxicity still runs rampant on the platform.
Similarly, Facebook’ s AI detects nearly 90% of hate speech removed by the platform, including nudity, violence, and other potentially offensive content. However, like Twitter, Facebook still has a long way to go.
Despite its promise, AI-based content moderation faces many challenges. One is that these systems often mistakenly flag safe content as unsafe, which can have serious consequences. For example, Facebook marked legitimate news articles about the coronavirus as spam at the outset of the pandemic. It mistakenly banned a Republican Party Facebook page for more than two months. And, it flagged posts and comments about the Plymouth Hoe, a public landmark in England, as offensive.
However, the problem is tricky. Failing to flag content can have even more dangerous effects. The shooters in both the El Paso and Gilroy shootings published their violent intentions on 8chan and Instagram before going on their rampages. Robert Bowers, the accused perpetrator of the massacre at a synagogue in Pittsburgh, was active on Gab, a Twitter-esque site used by white supremacists. Misinformation about the war in Ukraine has received millions of views and likes across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and TikTok.
Another issue is that many AI-based moderation systems exhibit racial biases that need to be addressed in order to create a safe and usable environment for everyone.
To fix these issues, AI moderation systems need higher quality training data. Today, many companies outsource the data to train their AI systems to low-skill, poorly trained call centers in third-world countries. These labelers lack the language skills and cultural context to make accurate moderation decisions. For example, unless you’ re familiar with U.S. politics, you likely won’ t know what a message mentioning “ Jan 6 ” or “ Rudy and Hunter ” refers to, despite their importance for content moderation. If you’ re not a native English speaker, you’ ll likely over-index on profane terms, even when they’ re used in a positive context, mistakenly flagging references to the Plymouth Hoe or “ she’ s such a bad bitch ” as offensive.
One company solving this challenge is Surge AI, a data labeling platform designed for training AI in the nuances of language. It was founded by a team of engineers and researchers who built the trust and safety platforms at Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.
For example, Facebook has faced many issues with gathering high-quality data to train its moderation systems in important languages. Despite the size of the company and its scope as a worldwide communications platform, it barely had enough content to train and maintain a model for standard Arabic, much less dozens of dialects. The company’ s lack of a comprehensive list of toxic slurs in the languages spoken in Afghanistan meant it could be missing many violating posts. It lacked an Assamese hate speech model, even though employees flagged hate speech as a major risk in Assam, due to the increasing violence against ethnic groups there. These are issues Surge AI helps solve, through its focus on languages as well as toxicity and profanity datasets.
In short, with larger, higher-quality datasets, social media platforms can train more accurate content moderation algorithms to detect harmful content, which helps keep them safe and free from abuse. Just as large datasets have fueled today’ s state-of-the-art language generation models, like OpenAI’ s GPT-3, they can also fuel better AI for moderation. With enough data, machine learning models can learn to detect toxicity with greater accuracy, and without the biases found in lower-quality datasets.
AI-assisted content moderation isn’ t a perfect solution, but it’ s a valuable tool that can help companies keep their platforms safe and free from harm. With the increasing use of AI, we can hope for a future where the online world is a safer place for all.
Valerias Bangert is a strategy and innovation consultant, founder of three profitable media outlets and published author.
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Tesla to pause production at Shanghai 'Gigafactory ' amid COVID lockdown: report | Tesla Inc. will pause production at its Shanghai “ Gigafactory ” this week amid a COVID-19 lockdown in the city, according to a new report.
Bloomberg News on Sunday reported
Tesla’ s facility will suspend production for at least one day, starting Monday. The report said it was unclear if the pause will extend for more days, and that employees there have not been told yet.
Tesla
TSLA,
-4.83%
halted production at the Shanghai plant
for two days
earlier this month as COVID restrictions tightened. The facility produces more than 2,000 vehicles a day, on average, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.
A MarketWatch email to Tesla on Sunday seeking confirmation or comment did not receive a response. Tesla dissolved its media relations department in 2020.
On Sunday, the Shanghai city government
announced plans to lock down the city
of 25 million in two stages. One lockdown, affecting about 11 million people, will start Monday and last four days. The second, affecting about 14 million people, will start Friday and also last four days. The lockdowns will require non-essential workers to work from home, shut public transit and ban people from going out.
China is experiencing its worst COVID-19 outbreak since the early months of 2020, as the omicron variant rapidly spreads.
Tesla stock is down 4.4% year to date, but up 63% over the past year, compared to the S & P 500’ s
SPX,
-1.69%
4.6% decline this year and 14% gain over the past 12 months. | business |
Enhancing Patient Experience through Advanced Digital Solutions | Join Our Telegram Channel for More Insights. Join Now
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The healthcare industry is becoming more dynamic and advanced due to the recent developments in the clinical, research, and pharmaceutical aspects of the sphere. We can witness significant changes as a result of the rising demand after the Covid-19 pandemic. Healthcare companies are reaping the full benefits of healthtech solutions by providing personalized and convenient services to patients, hospitals, healthcare providers, and other related professionals. In this ongoing phenomenon of the pandemic, healthcare startups around the world are trying to offer the best possible solutions to revolutionize the healthcare industry and re-equip the industry to meet the existing adverse conditions. Recently, healthtech startups raised substantial amounts of funding to facilitate efficient, cost-effective, and personalized solutions to the patients.
The year 2020 saw a significant amount of boost in the number of healthcare startups, as young entrepreneurs aimed to create a significant amount of change in different medical domains like telehealth, radiology, diagnostics, therapeutics, and others. This overall growth in the industry resulted in improving the quality of healthcare offered to the people, boosting patients’ experience. These new technological innovations also bridged the pre-existing gaps in treatments and other healthcare services. This digital invasion by the healthcare startups also encouraged several government organizations to partner with private venture capital firms and launch initiatives to support the increase in innovation in this sector.
Healthcare startups and small-sized businesses and companies have been maintaining a stronghold in improving and automating the daily operations in a healthcare facility. These startups tend to have a surplus amount invested in research and development to make further advances in the future. This way, the startups are able to significantly contribute to the evolution of the healthcare ecosystem. These startups are essentially tech giants that enhance the underlying capabilities across the different layers of industry based on their needs. Tech stakeholders partner with these tech giants to help provide meaningful outcomes in the industry.
In a nutshell, it is safe to say that the recent improvements in the healthcare sector have resulted in improved outcomes for patients and other stakeholders. Both healthtech startups and established companies are playing crucial roles in contributing to this change in the regional, national, and international healthcare ecosystems.
Innovative healthcare startups have automated the process of scheduling health appointments and managing care. New tools have been introduced to take care of such activities, transforming the way patients sync with doctors. There are startups that have innovated the way of providing integrated benefits management systems for employers. Through such platforms, patients can search for covered providers in their area, and if they have any queries about the coverage, then they will be enabled to contact a support agent that will guide them. The agents can also send emails or messages in order for a follow up. These types of services have made customers switch channels and retain crucial content in such omnichannel customer service.
Also, for those who seek counseling during this pandemic period, healthcare startups have been making new strides in connecting the doctors to the patients via applications to conduct therapy or text-based content. With this, the patients are subjected to get fast, reliable, accurate assistance from professionals, therapists, and doctors.
The bottom line, it has become crucial for healthcare and tech to work together. The healthtech domain is still in its nascent stage, hence, the companies require as much funding and assistance required to provide efficient and accurate healthcare solutions.
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The COVID-19 pandemic pushed social media to become increasingly tribal | Media theorist Marshall McLuhan suggested that each media-related extension of man comes at the expense of another organ. For example, by increasing reliance on visual media, we lose touch with oral communication.
McLuhan also formulated the laws of media which states that all media aim to extend the body, and when they do so some media become obsolete, some get revived and when a new medium is pushed to its limits, it reverts to an early version.
McLuhan’ s theories take on a new significance as we witness a reversion of social media, which I refer to as “ tribal media. ” By this, I mean media that reflects a fragment of a society consisting of like-minded people within specific political, economic, cultural and personal parameters.
Social media has now been around for two decades, and has been treated with ambivalence since its inception. The global COVID-19 pandemic may have pushed social media to its limits, and reverted it to an earlier version: chatrooms.
Until a few years ago, one of the greatest worries about the internet was how addictive it could be. However, when we studied the relationship between screen addiction and stress, we found a silver lining: There was a possibility that addiction to screens helped reduce the emotional burden of other stressors, such as financial worries or relationship problems.
The COVID-19 pandemic forced a different consideration of whether or not social media use produced stress and anxiety. Those who were searching for the potential harms of screen addiction on brain development now had to contend with life and work activities moving online.
In March 2020, our research team used the occasion of the pandemic to explore whether social media causes or relieves stress. We asked respondents about the change in their patterns of different media usage as a result of the pandemic. One year later, we repeated the same question. What we found was a significant change in the nature of people’ s interactions with social media — users avoided what was perceived as sensational and political content, but gravitated towards building community.
We observed this trend in another independent analysis of how older adults used social media and communications technology to cope with public health measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that, for them, social media and new platforms such as Zoom were important only in as far as they connected them to their own families and communities.
The pandemic made social media and communication platforms the inevitable extension of us. But by bringing us into this forced global embrace, it may have also forced us to split along tribal divisions — what anthropologist Gregory Bateson refers to as schismogenesis. These divisions occur because of, and are exacerbated by, increasing conflict in communications about contentious topics such as lockdowns and mandatory vaccinations.
COVID-19 revealed that social media companies are neither neutral nor benevolent. They pick their own tribes too. And when this happened, users reacted.
Research by the Pew Research Center found that more than 40 per cent of Facebook users had begun abandoning the social network before the pandemic.
This followed a chain of controversies involving selling data to Cambridge Analytica to gathering data about the psychological profile of American voters and allowing the Russians to interfere with an American election.
When Facebook was accused of profiting from the spread of misinformation, they used the same type of data-mining methods to monitor and censor posts on their platform. Users could no longer ignore the fact that Facebook gathered and capitalized on their information for corporations that would pay for the data.
As a result of this accelerated exodus, the company’ s shares dropped by 25 per cent. But Facebook acquired the end-to-end encrypted group chat app WhatsApp and launched private chatrooms unregulated by censoring algorithms.
Both of these platforms represented a revival of chatrooms.
Donald Trump’ s use of Twitter as his personal propaganda machine, especially in relation to his public health disinformation, pushed social media to a new edge. When Twitter blocked Trump’ s account, it illustrated the power of social media in political interference. Media commentators sounded the alarm, concerned that a corporation’ s meddling in determining the legitimacy of narratives sets a dangerous precedence and threatens the right to the freedom of expression.
When cultural and ideological schismogenesis surfaced in different narratives of health and safety, Twitter decisively took a position. In response, Trump created his own media platform: Truth Social.
There might still be a silver lining in changing our habits with regards to tribalized media usage. Anthropologist Heidi Larson, director of The Vaccine Confidence Project, warns that centralized “ censorship ” of information runs a greater risk in creating conspiratorial forms of information communications. Larson suggests that targeted social media is better suited to promote trust and serve public safety.
It is not surprising that over the past two decades of globalized social media, we are now returning to the controlled-access chatrooms for people with proven ties and loyalties to each other. Whether this ‘ tribalization’ is an effective response to how we cope with the stress of a world in which social media can be weaponized in times of war remains to be seen. | business |
Tesla to idle China plant for four days as Shanghai moves to stem virus | Tesla Inc. is extending the production pause at its Shanghai plant to Thursday after the city was placed into a phased lockdown to curb a surge in Covid-19 cases, people familiar with the matter said.
Originally suspended for a day, production at the Gigafactory near China’ s main financial center will now be halted for four days, to resume at this stage on April 1, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they’ re not authorized to speak publicly.
Shanghai will lock down half of the city in turns to conduct a mass testing blitz to combat a Covid outbreak that’ s turned it into China’ s biggest virus hotspot. Areas east of the Huangpu River, where the Tesla plant is located, will be locked down on Monday for four days. Many Tesla workers would be affected, though they may be able to return to work when the lockdown shifts to the other side of the city. | general |
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