title
stringlengths 4
2.73k
| content
stringlengths 1
843k
⌀ | category
stringclasses 5
values |
|---|---|---|
There’ s been a ‘ key shift’ in the way stocks, bonds and other assets react to growth risks | Buying U.S. Treasurys and shorting commodities became the most effective way to hedge against macroeconomic risks over the past year — and that should continue if worries mount over the spread of China’ s coronavirus, according to one market watcher.
“ Over the last 12 months, experience from usual hedges has been significantly nuanced — a short positioning in stock futures ( or credit-spread wideners) has been much less rewarding than a short positioning in oil, industrial commodities or a long position in Treasury futures, ” said Gaurav Saroliya, director of macro strategy at Oxford Economics, in a Friday note.
Read:
‘ Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse
In fact, that reflects a “ key shift ” in the way various asset classes have priced risks to growth, he said, pointing to the chart below. Over the last six months or so, oil and Treasurys have become far more sensitive to growth risks, while equities are much less sensitive.
Oxford Economics
The response to the China virus outbreak has largely followed the recent script, Saroliya noted, with copper and oil prices and Treasury yields, which fall as Treasury prices rise, all down sharply as investors “ practically [ take ] out all expectations of an industrial recovery that we have seen since Q4 last year. ”
Key Words:
Coronavirus will ‘ shake markets out of their buy-the-dip’ mentality, says El-Erian
At the same time, the drawdown in global equities has been relatively modest, he said. And that isn’ t down solely to the resilience of the U.S. market, he emphasized, noting that both oil and copper have sharply underperformed the MSCI Emerging Market stock index, an index tracked by the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
EEM,
-0.12%
,
the part of the global equities market most sensitive to the China viral outbreak.
See:
Why the coronavirus ‘ poses a more significant threat’ to markets, economy than past epidemics
EEM fell more than 6% in January. Brent crude futures
BRN00,
+0.21%
,
the global benchmark, fell nearly 12% in January, while copper futures
HG00,
+0.28%
dropped nealry 10%.
U.S. stocks tumbled Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.41%
shedding 600 points, with the blue-chip gauge turning lower by 1% in January and the S & P 500
SPX,
-0.35%
edging slightly lower for the month as well. U.S. stocks were solidly in bounce mode on Monday, however, with the Dow taking back around 270 points, or 1%, while the S & P 500 rallied by the same amount percentage-wise, putting the S & P back into positive territory for the year while the Dow remained off marginally.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.946%
fell below 1.54% on Friday, trading at its lowest since October after ending 2019 near 1.92%. Treasury prices retreated Monday, with the 10-year yield up 3 basis points to 1.545%.
Saroliya said resilience for stocks and Treasurys all could be a sign of the growing role of passive investors as asset classes such as equities and credit show lesser sensitivity to macroeconomic risks thanks to a growing tide of price-insensitive buyers, such as passive investors. He added “ discount-rate tailwinds ” from the Fed’ s 2019 cut in interest rates may also be an important driver.
Copper and oil, meanwhile, don’ t have the same offset of investor flows, leaving them with a higher correlation to macro risks, he argued. Core government bond markets, meanwhile, enjoy both the tailwind of retail inflows as risk aversion rises.
That might explain why Treasury yields not only have the highest correlation with proxies for global economic growth but also the “ asymmetric ” behavior they’ ve displayed since early 2019, he said, noting that yields have fallen strongly when risks surface but rise only modestly when risks recede and equities rally hard.
“ This combination of a positive correlation with growth proxies and favorable investor flow tailwinds makes Treasurys the most efficient hedge against macro risks in the current environment, ” he wrote. “ We have remained tactically long the 30-year Treasury bond future
US00,
-0.27%
since the yield was 2.52%. We think the call continues to run its course and has significant residual life. ”
This is an updated version of an article originally published on Jan. 31. | business |
China coronavirus cases now top 20,000; Hong Kong shuts most of border | BEIJING — China said Tuesday the number of infections from a new virus surpassed 20,000 as medical workers and patients arrived at a new hospital and President Xi Jinping said “ we have launched a people’ s war of prevention of the epidemic. ”
Xi presided over a special meeting of the top Communist Party body for the second time since the crisis started, telling the Politburo standing committee on Monday the country must race against time to curb the spread of the virus. He also said those who neglect their duties will be punished, state broadcaster CCTV reported.
Hong Kong shut almost all of its land and sea border crossings with the mainland at midnight after medical workers began a strike demanding the border be closed completely. More than 2,000 hospital workers went on strike Monday, and their union has threatened a bigger walkout Tuesday.
Hong Kong was hit hard by SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, in 2002-03, an illness from the same family of viruses as the current outbreak and which many believe was intensified by official Chinese secrecy and obfuscation.
The mainland’ s latest figures of 425 deaths and 20,438 confirmed infections with the new coronavirus were up from 361 deaths and 17,205 cases the previous day. Outside mainland China, at least 180 cases have been confirmed, including one fatality, in the Philippines.
Other countries are continuing evacuations and restricting the entry of Chinese or people who have recently traveled in the country. A plane carrying Malaysians from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province where the illness has been concentrated, arrived in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday morning, and the 133 people on board were to be screened and quarantined for 14 days, the maximum incubation period for the virus.
Medical teams from the People’ s Liberation Army were arriving in Wuhan to relieve overwhelmed health workers and to staff the new 1,000-bed hospital. It was built in just 10 days, its prefabricated wards equipped with state-of-the-art medical equipment and ventilation systems.
A 1,500-bed hospital also specially built for patients infected with the new virus is due to open within days.
With no end to the outbreak in sight, authorities in Hubei and elsewhere extended the Lunar New Year holiday break, due to end this week, well into February to try to keep people at home and reduce the spread of the virus. All Hubei schools are postponing the start of the new semester until further notice.
Chinese scientists said they have more evidence the virus, which was first detected in Wuhan in December, likely originated in bats. In a study published in the journal Nature, Shi Zhen-Li and colleagues at the Wuhan Institute of Virology reported that genome sequences from seven patients were 96% identical to a bat coronavirus.
SARS is also believed to have originated in bats, although it jumped to civet cats before infecting people. Scientists suspect the latest outbreak began at a seafood market in Wuhan where wild animals were on sale and in contact with people.
Japanese officials were considering a quarantine of more than 3,000 people on a cruise ship that carried a passenger who tested positive for the virus. The passenger on the Japanese-operated Diamond Princess left the vessel while it was in Hong Kong on Jan. 25.
The ship returned to Yokohama after making port calls in Vietnam, Taiwan and Okinawa. A team of quarantine officials and medical staff boarded the ship Monday and began medical checks of everyone on board, a health ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in keeping with department rules.
The ship’ s captain said Hong Kong’ s health authorities notified the ship about the passenger’ s infection on Saturday, according to a recording of the announcement tweeted by a passenger. The patient is recovering, and his traveling companions so far have not been infected, the captain’ s announcement said.
“ I wish we were informed as soon as they found out, then I could have worn a mask or washed hands more carefully, ” the passenger said. “ I was in Hong Kong nine days ago and it seems to be too late now. ” | business |
China stocks plunged 8% as coronavirus fears took hold. It's the worst day in years | The Shanghai Composite ( SHCOMP) plummeted 7.7% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell nearly 8.5% on their first day of trading after an extended Lunar New Year holiday. They had been closed since January 24.
The losses wiped out a combined $ 445 billion in market value.
The plunge delivered Shanghai its worst day since August 2015's `` Black Monday, '' when global markets were rattled by fears of an economic slowdown in China. Shenzhen, meanwhile, hadn't recorded a single-day percentage drop this bad since 2007.
China's currency also fell. The yuan sank 1.6% in onshore trading, dropping below seven to one US dollar in its first day back from the holiday break. The yuan also weakened below the seven mark offshore, where it moves more freely and has been trading since last week.
While global markets have had several days to weigh the rapid spread of the coronavirus, this is the first chance that mainland China has had to react in more than a week. Before the holiday, the number of cases numbered roughly 800 — now, there are more than 17,000.
Markets were originally due to reopen last Friday, but the Chinese government extended the holiday as it worked to control the outbreak.
Pumping money into the market
Authorities knew Monday's shock was likely inevitable. The People's Bank of China said Sunday that it would inject 1.2 trillion yuan ( $ 173 billion) into the Chinese markets by buying short term bonds to shore up banks ' ability to lend money. The measure will help maintain `` reasonably ample liquidity '' in the banking system and keep currency markets stable, the central bank said.
The net amount of liquidity being injected into the markets is much lower. According to Reuters calculations using central bank data, more than 1 trillion yuan worth of other short-term bond agreements will mature Monday. That brings the net amount of cash flooding into the markets down to 150 billion yuan ( $ 22 billion).
The central bank will also keep in contact with financial institutions and markets to determine what other policy responses may be necessary, according to Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank.
Protecting China's financial markets and economy is a top priority for the government, which is also bracing for a potentially severe hit to first quarter economic growth. Economists have said that China's growth rate could drop two percentage points this quarter — a decline that could mean $ 62 billion in lost growth.
Along with Monday's liquidity kick, top financial and economic regulators have announced dozens of other measures to stabilize the situation.
For example, the National Development and Reform Commission — the country's top economic planning agency — said Monday the government would `` go to all lengths '' to make sure that people have what they need to live, including food and other necessities. It also encouraged companies `` that are key to control and prevent the virus '' or are `` of vital importance to the national economy '' to resume production as soon as they can.
And the People's Bank of China said Saturday that it would provide money at low interest rates to commercial banks so that those banks could offer cheap loans to companies that make clinical masks, virus testing kits and other types of medical supplies. The central government will also subsidize those special loans.
The country's stock exchange regulators have also said they would allow companies to delay 2019 annual reports and 2020 quarterly earnings reports if they are affected by the disruption.
Other markets react
Markets elsewhere in Asia were mostly lower Monday, too — though their losses were not nearly as dramatic as in China.
In Japan, where 20 cases of the virus have been confirmed, the Nikkei 225 ( N225) fell 1%. In South Korea, which has 15 confirmed cases, the benchmark Kospi ( KOSPI) closed down a fraction of a percent.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ( HSI), meanwhile, closed up 0.2% after moving between small gains and losses. The index lost more than 6% last week after investors returned from the Lunar New Year holiday. Unlike in mainland China, Hong Kong markets reopened last Wednesday.
In the United States, stock futures were actually higher overnight. Dow ( INDU), S & P 500 ( SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ( COMP) futures were all roughly 0.5% to 0.8% higher during Asian trading hours.
US markets haven't been immune from fears over the coronavirus, though. Last Friday, the Dow fell 600 points, capping a turbulent week for stocks. | business |
Biotech Gilead Sciences testing antiviral drug to treat coronavirus | Gilead Sciences, a biopharmaceutical firm with an experimental drug called remdesivir that is used to treat the Ebola virus, said late Friday it is working with Chinese health authorities to see if the medication can combat the symptoms of coronavirus.
The company said in a statement that remdesivir has demonstrated some success in treating MERS and SARS, two viruses similar to the Wuhan coronavirus, in animals.
Remdesivir has also been used for emergency treatment of patients with Ebola. But the drug has not yet been officially licensed or approved for treatment by any global health organization, Gilead added.
Investors were nonetheless encouraged. Shares of Gilead ( GILD) rose more than 5% Monday.
Gilead is not the only drug firm hoping to find a successful treatment for the coronavirus. Big Pharma rivals Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ) and GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK) are also working on vaccines.
Biotech company AbbVie ( ABBV) has said that they have seen promising results for treating the Wuhan coronavirus with a mixture of two of its HIV medications and Tamiflu, which is produced in a joint venture by Swiss pharma giant Roche ( RHHBF) and Japan's Chugai Pharmaceutical Co ( CHGCY).
Smaller drug producers Moderna ( MRNA), Inovio Pharmaceuticals ( INO) and Novavax ( NVAX) are also working on treatments. Their stocks have all surged in the past month.
It may be more than a year until a vaccine is available, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said. | business |
A Supply-Chain Approach to Solving the Coronavirus Challenge | Last week, we learned that Amazon’ s fourth-quarter results smashed analysts’ expectations. Revenue climbed 21% year on year, profits rebounded, Prime is paying off, and market cap surged to over $ 1 trillion. Exciting developments for those of us who predicted the success of the Amazon operating model.
More sobering, however, was the news that the World Health Organization ( WHO) had upgraded the status of the coronavirus to a global emergency, with 7,700 cases recorded worldwide, and the death toll in China rising to 170.
So what’ s the connection between those two developments? The network effect. Amazon is a network of buyers and sellers who transact orders and share information about goods. The company’ s phenomenal growth is due to its ability to rapidly leverage economic scale from the partner and customer network that it’ s built over time.
Similarly, an Amazon Web Services-based platform connects pharma and healthcare providers with capabilities for seeing across the network, tracking and tracing uniquely serialized products from supply to patient, and exchanging data between supply-chain partners.
With the network effect, the more partners that connect, the more the network grows. And the more powerful the value of the network, the greater the business value of transactions across it — that is, until the platform can no longer scale. But with the increasing sophistication of technology and digital solutions, networks are becoming capable of growing exponentially.
The coronavirus is spreading globally because of the network effect. Virus infection increases exponentially as the planet goes about its normal life, and more people come into contact with one another on a daily basis. They travel, and goods move, but so does the virus, whether we like it or not.
At the same time, however, the networked operating model of supply-chain capabilities offers a solution to the exploding coronavirus issue.
The virus moves as its own supply chain, from source to recipient ( patient), then from patient to patient under a network model. It doesn’ t recognize boundaries, and it thrives on physical connections. Therefore, to counteract the spread of the virus, we need global transparency and analysis of related events. The capability to codify symptoms, and share lessons is fundamental. By learning from confirmed infections, we can model and counteract outbreaks quickly and efficiently.
The challenge is that we need agile digital and IT capabilities that allow us to do things at scale — things we couldn’ t do in the past because of technology and complexity constraints.
In a nutshell, the solution to the coronavirus issue lies in the ability to build end-to-end supply-chain visibility, performance and risk-analysis capabilities. In addition, we need to create responsive planning and execution processes across countries and cultures.
To solve the coronavirus crisis quickly, we must pool global supply-chain thought leadership, capabilities and systems, and holistically build a platform that stretches from the evolving patient network back to the supply system. Then we must find and manufacture a vaccine, distribute product, and ensure that we locate all patients who need treatment. This end-to-end supply system must be designed around achieving the “ moment of truth ”: the point at which patients receive safe vaccinations. Delivery must be on time, in full, right the first ( and every) time, compliant, and predictable.
Unfortunately, todays healthcare system is built on the premise of pharma companies making and distributing patent-protected product at such high margin and inventory levels that it overlooks the need for deep supply-chain skills and experience. A cure for coronavirus won’ t get off the ground if this is the premise.
All this, of course, is what food and beverage, pharma and life sciences producers eat, sleep and breathe everyday. The difference is that coronavirus kills.
The above aren’ t new capabilities for end-to-end digital supply-chains and healthcare. Yet today’ s system of pharma manufacturing and supply, consisting of distributors, logistics providers and dispensers, is inefficient because:
To deal with coronavirus, we need to rapidly stand up a global digital platform that connects the coronavirus partner-solution system onto one seamless, digitally enabled network. Partners must be able to share data and insights, and collaboratively build a patient-centric vaccination and cure network for coronavirus.
We need to fix this outbreak and be prepared for the next one, whenever and wherever it occurs. It’ s been done before; I was personally involved in creation of a global visibility and analytics network ( VAN) program in Africa for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, covering malaria, tuberculosis, AIDS and family planning. So let’ s get cracking! It’ s not like we’ re implementing another enterprise resource planning ( ERP) system.
Roddy Martin is chief digital healthcare transformation officer at TraceLink. | general |
Hong Kong recession deepens as virus outbreak darkens outlook | Hong Kong’ s economy contracted for the first time in a decade in 2019 as violent anti-government protests and trade tariffs between Washington and Beijing took more steam out of the economy in the final quarter of last year.
The worst is yet to come, with no end in sight to the protests in the Chinese-ruled city and a new coronavirus outbreak in mainland China.
“ The coronavirus outbreak will probably keep the city in recession for a while longer, ” said Martin Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics.
Hong Kong, which has so far seen 15 confirmed cases of the virus, has taken measures to reduce the flow of visitors from China where the death toll has risen to 361. The city’ s retail and tourism sectors rely heavily on spenders from the Chinese mainland.
The economy shrank by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October-December from the previous quarter, versus a revised 3.0% contraction in July-September. On an annual basis, the economy shrank 2.9%, compared with a revised 2.8% fall in the third quarter.
For the whole of 2019, real gross domestic product contracted by 1.2%, the first annual decline since 2009.
“ The coronavirus is grabbing the headlines, but the protests haven’ t gone away, ” said Iris Pang, Greater China economist at ING, who expects the economy to contract by 4.5% this year and return to mild growth in 2021 “ if the virus is contained ”.
“ Retail, catering, tourism, mass transportation are all suffering. ”
ANZ analysts predicted a 1.4 percentage point negative impact on Hong Kong’ s first quarter gross domestic product from the effects of the virus, making it the worst hit region in Asia outside mainland China.
Capital Economics expects the virus to shave off 2 percentage points off Hong Kong’ s first quarter growth.
It was always going to be tough for Hong Kong to navigate 2019, with the U.S.-China trade war bound to hurt one of the busiest trading hubs in the world.
But protests have scared tourists and shoppers and often paralysed transport, shaking its remaining key pillars of growth.
In the past week, restaurants and shopping malls have been almost deserted, with people avoiding unnecessary exposure to large crowds and staff at many large companies working from home to protect themselves from catching the virus.
Gordon Lam, convener of a mom-and-pop restaurant alliance, said some eateries saw a 50% drop from a year earlier in Lunar New Year holiday business, much worse than during the protests.
“ People didn’ t even want to go out to visit family, ” said Lam, who owns a hot pot shop.
In November, the most recent data available, retail sales fell for a 10th consecutive month by 23.6% year-on-year.
Tourist arrivals plunged by an annual 55.9% in November, their steepest fall since May 2003, when the city was hit by an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) — its previous major health crisis, which at the time caused a recession on its own.
Also, the civil unrest has drawn corporate heavyweights including HSBC ( HSBA.L) and Cathay Pacific ( 0293.HK) into the political turmoil, underscoring the tightrope businesses must navigate between protesters and the city’ s political masters in Beijing.
Hong Kong — one of the world’ s most important financial hubs with total banking, fund and wealth management assets worth more than $ 6 trillion — has pledged HK $ 35 billion ( $ 4.50 billion) in stimulus to prop up the economy. Further measures are expected in a budget announcement later in February.
Writing by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Jacqueline Wong | business |
El-Erian says coronavirus to 'paralyze China, ' don't buy stock dips | Economist Mohamed El-Erian is warning investors not to buy declines in the stock market like they might have done before the coronavirus.
The outbreak is going to take a major toll on the Chinese economy and hurt global growth, the Allianz chief economic advisor and ex-Pimco CEO told CNBC on Monday.
`` For a long time I thought the market sentiment was so strong that we could overcome a mounting list of economic uncertainty, '' El-Erian said on `` Squawk Box. '' `` But the coronavirus is different. It is big. It's going to paralyze China. It's going to cascade throughout the global economy. ''
`` Importantly, it can not be countered by central bank policy, '' he added. `` We should pay more attention to this. And we should try and resist our inclination to buy the dip. ''
U.S. stocks were higher at Wall Street's open Monday despite the overnight plunge in Chinese stocks.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 603 points, or 2%, in its biggest single-session decline since August.
China's Shanghai composite on Monday nose-dived 7.7% on the first trading day there since the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Investors in China got their first chance to react to the widening coronavirus outbreak.
Confirmed cases in China rose to 17,205 with 361 deaths. On Monday, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced the city would suspend 10 of 13 border crossings with mainland China in an effort to curb the spread of the virus.
The Philippines on Sunday reported the first death outside of China. | business |
David Tepper says coronavirus 'may be a game changer ' for market | Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper, who was bullish on the market just a few weeks ago, said the coronavirus outbreak has changed the environment around stocks.
Tepper, in an interview with Jim Cramer for TheStreet, said investors should be cautious until more is known about the virus.
`` You have to be careful, because it may be a game changer. So you 've just got to be cautious, '' Tepper said.
Tepper had told CNBC two weeks ago that he thought the market would keep climbing, saying `` I love riding a horse that's running. ''
Now, the coronavirus has `` certainly ruined the environment '' for stocks that was in place a few weeks ago, Tepper told Cramer.
The outbreak is still mostly impacting China, which has more than 17,000 confirmed cases and over 360 deaths. However, concerns about how the virus would dent global growth have hit markets around the world, with major indexes in the United States falling by about 2% on Friday.
When asked by Cramer if long-term investors should stay in the market, Tepper indicated they should make sure they are not taking extra risks here.
`` If you're a long-term person, you better not be leveraged, '' Tepper said.
Tepper has run the hedge fund Appaloosa Management since 1993 and it recently managed about $ 14 billion in assets. The fund has seen consistent success, including a return of more than 100% in 2009 from betting on a rebound in the financial sector.
Tepper, who also owns the NFL's Carolina Panthers, announced last year that he would returning a lot of the money in the fund to investors and converting it into a family office. | business |
Chinese stocks recover partially from Monday plunge | Mainland Chinese stocks saw a partial recovery on Tuesday after deep losses on Monday, as investors weighed the potential economic impact of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak that has killed hundreds in China so far.
Monday's plunge had left mainland Chinese indexes diving more than 7%. By the market close on Tuesday, the Shanghai composite was 1.34% higher at about 2,783.29 while the Shenzhen component jumped 3.17% to 10,089.67. The Shenzhen composite added 1.804% to approximately 1,638.02.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was 1.28% higher as of its final hour of trading, as shares of Chinese tech giants Tencent and Alibaba surged 3.26% and 4.2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hospital Authority confirmed on Tuesday morning the first coronavirus-related death in the city, a 39-year-old male.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.49% higher at 23,084.59 while the Topix index gained 0.69% to end its trading day at 1,684.24. South Korea's Kospi surged 1.84% to close at 2,157.90.
Meanwhile, shares in Australia saw gains on the day, with the S & P/ASX 200 up 0.37% to 6,948.70.
Overall, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index was 1.63% higher.
The Reserve Bank of Australia ( RBA) announced Tuesday its decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%.
Following that announcement, the Australian dollar surged to $ 0.6719 after seeing an earlier low of $ 0.6676.
`` Due to both global and domestic factors, it is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target, '' RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a media release announcing the central bank's monetary policy decision.
On the topic of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, Lowe said it was a source of uncertainty that is having a `` significant effect '' on the Chinese economy currently, though it is `` too early to determine how long-lasting the impact will be. ''
`` Our expectation over ( the) next few months, it 'll become apparent that we're not getting further towards the RBA's objective of full employment and inflation within the 2-3% target band, '' Gareth Aird, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told CNBC's `` Street Signs '' on Tuesday.
`` Ultimately, they 'll have to take the policy rate lower, we think it 'll be April, '' Aird said, though he acknowledged that it's `` very much dependent on the data between now and then. ''
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 97.879 after rising from levels below 97.5 yesterday.
The Japanese yen traded at 108.86 against the dollar after seeing an earlier high of 108.54.
Oil prices were higher in the morning of Asian trading hours. The international benchmark Brent crude futures added 0.4% to $ 54.67 per barrel. U.S. crude futures also gained 0.72% to $ 50.47 per barrel.
Correction: This report was updated to reflect that the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its cash rate decision on Tuesday. | business |
China economy: Markit/Caixin January manufacturing PMI | A private survey showed China's manufacturing activity in January expanded at its slowest pace since August.
On Monday, Markit/Caixin said its manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1 for the month of January. That's the slowest in five months.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Markit/Caixin manufacturing PMI to come in at 51.3.
The Markit/Caixin manufacturing PMI — a measure of factory activity — was 51.5 in December.
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that level signal contraction.
Slow demand dragged on manufacturing activity, with total new orders weakening to a level not seen since September 2019, said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at Caixin subsidiary CEBM Group.
On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics said the country's official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0 for the month of January — an indication of stalled activity.
The bureau said that the impact of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak was not fully reflected in the survey, which was conducted before Jan. 20.
With most responses to the Markit/Caixin survey likely submitted early before the Lunar New Year holidays and before widespread public awareness about the scale of the outbreak, the results would not have reflected the extent of the economic damage from the coronavirus, said Capital Economics.
`` Since then, it's become clear that manufacturing activity is facing major near-term headwinds, '' wrote economists Julian Evans-Pritchard and Martin Lynge Rasmussen in a note on Monday.
`` Domestic demand has taken a big hit as consumers are staying home and likely delaying non-essential purchases, '' they added.
Lunar New Year holidays have also been prolonged in many cities and provinces in attempts to contain the virus.
`` This means that factories and ports will be churning out a much lower output than usual, if anything at all, '' they added. Transport disruptions will also make it difficult for migrant workers to return from holidays once businesses are officially allowed to reopen, they said.
CEBM's Zhong said China's economy will be impacted by the coronavirus epidemic in the near term.
Before the outbreak, China's economy had already been affected by the country's long-drawn trade war with the U.S.
The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises while the private manufacturing PMI survey by Markit/Caixin features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms. | business |
Investors should avoid making big moves because of coronavirus fears | When the market makes big moves, you might be tempted to make big decisions. However, having a one-size-fits-all approach to your investments will likely lead to regrets.
`` One of the big mistakes I see people make is that they think that investing is an all or nothing game, '' said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.
On Friday, stocks fell sharply as fears about the coronavirus ' impact on China and other markets spread. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 600 points, or 2.1%. The S & P 500 saw a 1.8% drop.
Though stocks are poised to rebound Monday, investors may still be on guard. Kinahan said they would be wise to take a cue from professional investors.
`` Most professionals very much think of it as a partial game, '' Kinahan said.
That means if you had a good 2019, you may take a small percentage – 10% or less – off the table and realize a profit.
`` You should not, in my opinion, not be thinking all or none with your investments in any situation, '' Kinahan said. `` You should be thinking partials. ''
Removing some risk can give you some comfort and help you think straight, he said.
That advice will likely be relevant in the coming months as the presidential election and coronavirus outbreak continue to make headlines.
Positive and negative news about the candidates could lead to more intraday volatility, Kinahan said.
Meanwhile, the health outbreak could have financial consequences for companies, he said.
For example, McDonald's is closing hundreds of its restaurants in China in response to the crisis. Because 10% of the company's revenues are from China, that could affect their future financial performance, Kinahan said.
`` China is a critical market for us, and we're very concerned about the situation over there. Its actual impact on our business is going to be fairly small, assuming, again, that it stays contained to China, '' McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski said last week during the company's fourth quarter earnings call.
One analyst is predicting the coronavirus could hurt both supply and demand for Apple products. The company's stock has dropped from its highs on worries about the spread of the virus.
`` This has the opportunity to affect earnings, '' Kinahan said of the longer-term implications.
In a note to investors released on Monday, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the `` short term-growth and earnings impact from the coronavirus may prove to be significant, but it will also likely prove temporary. ''
A sharp recovery could be spurred by pent-up demand, Haefele said. In the meantime, UBS recommends limiting exposure to companies with exposure to Chinese tourism and instead focusing on safer areas like dividend-paying stocks.
Investors may also want to take a cue from Apple CEO Tim Cook, who has taken a wait-and-see approach to the virus outbreak, Kinahan said.
`` Have a plan in case things start to get a little bit worse of where you want to go next or if you want to go to cash, '' Kinahan said. `` But in the meantime, wait and see what happens. ''
More from Personal Finance: The Fed holds rates steady. Here's why that matters to youWhat investors should avoid doing as the market swings The retirement savings blind spot you don't realize you have
| business |
US coronavirus: There are 11 confirmed cases of the virus that has killed more than 420 people in China | Right now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta is the only place in the United States that can confirm whether a patient has the virus, which has killed more than 420 people and infected more than 17,000 in China.
Around the world, more than 170 confirmed cases have been reported in more than 20 countries.
CDC officials said they're trying to expedite the `` emergency use authorization '' for tests so more parts of the United States can test for and diagnose the Wuhan coronavirus.
`` The process is extremely expedited, and our colleagues at ( the US Food and Drug Administration) have been working with us closely ever since we made the plan that we were going to do this in this way, '' said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
Her comments Monday came a day after officials confirmed three new cases of infection in California. That brings the state's total to six cases and the nationwide total to 11.
On Sunday officials said a San Benito County man who had recently returned from Wuhan, China, and his wife have the virus. Both were isolating themselves in their home.
The man arrived at San Francisco International Airport on January 24 and was screened and found to be healthy and asymptomatic, said Dr. Martin Fenstersheib, the county's interim public health officer.
But the next day, the man developed symptoms including a cough and low-grade fever, Fenstersheib said. A few days later, his wife began showing symptoms as well. The couple had stayed at home since the husband's arrival, Fenstersheib said.
But on Monday the couple was transported from San Benito County to an undisclosed hospital in San Francisco, said Rachael Kagan, a spokeswoman for the San Francisco Department of Public Health.
Also Sunday, officials confirmed a woman who recently traveled from Wuhan to Santa Clara County also has the virus. The woman's case is the second in Santa Clara County, though officials said the cases are unrelated.
Elsewhere in California, Orange and Los Angeles counties each have had one confirmed case.
The World Health Organization ( WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern last week. A number of countries -- including the United States -- started evacuating their nationals on flights from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in China where the virus was first detected.
The United States issued a level 4 travel advisory warning residents not to travel to China, adding that most commercial air carriers have reduced or suspended flights to and from the country.
A spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry accused the US government Monday of responding inappropriately to the outbreak and feeding mass hysteria.
`` Most countries appreciate and support China's efforts to fight against the novel coronavirus, and we understand and respect them when they adopt or enhance quarantine measures at border entry, '' Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
`` But in the meantime, some countries, the US in particular, have inappropriately overreacted, which certainly runs counter to WHO advice. ''
Not everyone who has the virus went to China
The San Benito couple's diagnosis is the second person-to-person transmission of the virus reported in the United States.
In Chicago, a woman in her 60s was diagnosed after she returned from Wuhan on January 13. She is in a hospital and doing `` quite well, '' her doctors said.
The CDC said the Chicago woman had transmitted the virus to her husband, who had not traveled to China. But he was in close contact with his wife during a long period of time when she was symptomatic, the Illinois Department of Public Health said.
Other US cases of Wuhan coronavirus include a student at the Boston campus of the University of Massachusetts.
In Arizona, officials said, an `` adult member '' of the Arizona State University community was infected. And in Washington state, a man in his 30s sought treatment after returning from Wuhan.
More US citizens are about to be evacuated
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Monday said the United States will send additional flights to China to evacuate Americans from Hubei Province.
`` The exact timing of those we are still coordinating with the Chinese government but we anticipate that they will happen in the next handful of days... we 'll return those American citizens, '' Pompeo said.
`` We may well end up bringing some citizens back from other countries as well. We're working through the details on that. ''
That announcement came after Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared the coronavirus a public health emergency in the United States.
He said American citizens who were in Hubei Province in the past two weeks `` will be subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine. ''
The CDC ordered a federal 14-day quarantine for those passengers -- the first such order in more than half a century. | business |
Macao: Coronavirus turns China's gambling mecca into a ghost town | Visitors only momentarily drop their masks at the entrances to the casino, to pose for thermal cameras on the lookout for the deadly Wuhan coronavirus that has killed hundreds of people in mainland China and infected thousands more.
The outbreak has left the free-wheeling, semi-autonomous Chinese territory of Macao shell-shocked.
Last year, the city received almost 40 million visitors. Now, streets and squares once teeming with tourists from mainland China are empty. Ambulances roam the city, operated by emergency workers dressed in hazardous materials suits.
Ghost town
According to the Macao government, January tourism figures plunged 87% compared to the previous year, even though the busiest holiday of the year -- Lunar New Year -- fell in that period.
Hotels that were nearly at 100% capacity during the 2019 Lunar New Year were left half empty.
The health scare has threatened the business model at the heart of Macao's economy. The unofficial gambling capital of the world depends on millions of visitors from mainland China.
But now administrators are trying to ensure that the deadly new coronavirus first discovered last December in the Chinese city of Wuhan does not take root in this tiny former Portuguese colony.
In January, police went from hotel to hotel, rounding up hundreds of visitors from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. Each person was given a choice: either go home or go into quarantine for two weeks.
As of February 1, the dragnet had failed to track down more than 100 tourists from the region.
`` We are still targeting different Hubei tourists, '' Chio Song Un, Macao's police commissioner, said at a press conference on Friday.
At that briefing, 11 officials from the city government sat wearing masks, addressing a room full of journalists who had been instructed to also cover their faces.
Ao Leong Lu, Macao's secretary for social affairs and culture, urged residents to avoid gathering in large numbers. Her administration also announced schools would be closed indefinitely.
`` I never saw this in my life and I 've been here since 1981, '' Albano Martins, an economist who worked in the city's administration when it was still a Portuguese colony, told CNN.
He warned that Macao faces a major threat to its economy: `` If this effect still continue for two, three months more, we may have a two-digit contraction. ''
'Trust in science '
At Macao's main public hospital, hospital staff wait at the entrance dressed head-to-toe in plastic protective gear.
The coronavirus isolation ward, located on the top floor, has a ventilation system that pumps out and filters air from the patients ' rooms.
On Sunday, administrators announced the discovery of the city's eighth case of coronavirus. They say a 64-year-old woman who never traveled to Hubei province, but did reportedly purchase live poultry from a wet market in China's southern Guangdong province, was being treated for moderate symptoms the virus.
Her husband, as well as a doctor and nurse who had been in contact with her, were all in protective isolation, Vitor Moutinho, a spokesperson with Macao's Health Bureau, told CNN.
Meanwhile, the city government has also urged companies to provide housing for non-resident employees.
With a population of 600,000 -- microscopic by Chinese city standards -- Macao doesn't only rely on tourists from mainland China, with a sizeable chunk of its workforce also crossing the border every day.
City officials say a man and a woman in the neighboring Chinese city of Zhuhai have been diagnosed with coronavirus. Both worked in and around Macao's casinos.
One casino workers ' union is calling for Macao to close its casinos and hotels, echoing similar calls in nearby Hong Kong. That city has already cut border crossings by 80% and instituted new traveler checks.
Cloee Chao, president of New Macao Gaming Staff Rights, estimates the number of casino customers has plunged to less than 10% of normal activity -- meaning a full closure would not have a significantly worse effect on the economy.
`` Shutting down the casinos is the best way to protect the staff, '' she said.
Despite the concern, the government has so far drawn a line against closing Macao's glittering gambling houses.
However, asked whether this could be considered in future, Macao's Secretary for Economy and Finance told CNN he was not ruling it out.
`` We need to trust science and we need to believe in the risk management we have conducted, '' Lei Wai Nong said. `` At this point in time, the casinos in Macao are totally safe. '' | business |
Airlines will be hit hard by coronavirus | STOCKMARKETS IN China fell by nearly 8% on February 3rd—the largest single-day fall since 2015—as fears about the economic impact of the Wuhan coronavirus increased. Of the industries affected by the epidemic, perhaps none will be hit as hard as travel. In recent weeks, hotel occupancy in China has fallen by 45% year-on-year, according to analysts at Citigroup, a bank. Shares in China’ s three biggest airlines—Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines—have fallen by more than 20% since the first person died from the new strain, known as 2019-nCoV, on January 9th. The death toll in China has risen to 361. And the first death from the strain has been reported abroad, in the Philippines.
Investors in Chinese aviation are right to be nervous. Some previous pandemics have caused huge drops in airline traffic. From peak to trough, Asian airlines’ monthly passenger numbers dropped by 35% after the SARS outbreak in 2003; for Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’ s flag carrier, traffic fell by nearly 80%. The impact on some airlines of the Ebola outbreak, which started in West Africa in 2014, was still more severe. International air-passenger arrivals in Sierra Leone, for instance, plunged by 93%.
Compared with previous pandemics, Ebola and SARS hit airlines disproportionately hard. Passenger air traffic after the start of an outbreak normally goes back to pre-pandemic levels after 7 to 9 months. But with SARS the trough was much deeper than for other flu outbreaks in Asia, including MERS, a form of coronavirus that emerged in Saudi Arabia in 2015, as well as for the Zika virus in Brazil. Worse still was Ebola, which saw a deeper fall in passenger arrivals and—uniquely—took much longer for those affected to recover.
Tourists and business travellers may think that staying away from affected places is entirely rational during such outbreaks. But the World Bank estimates that 90% of economic losses during any outbreak arise from “ irrational ” efforts of the public to avoid infection in ways that do no such thing. Tiffany Misrahi of the World Travel & Tourism Council, an international trade body, notes that Ebola had a catastrophic impact on African tourism, whether or not a country was host to Ebola infections or not. Tanzania—a country over 3,000 miles from the Ebola outbreak—never had a single case of the disease, yet saw hotel bookings fall by up to 50% in October 2014 because of worries about the virus. SARS also had consequences far beyond Asia. A drop in air travel in North America caused by the outbreak caused a wave of bankruptcies and consolidation among airlines based there ( although these had already been financially weakened by the recession that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks).
The travel industry should brace for major disruption as governments impose travel bans on Chinese visitors to stop the spread of the disease. On February 3rd the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’ s biggest air-travel hubs, said it will suspend flights to and from Chinese destinations outside Beijing. It is unlikely to be the last to do so.
Published since September 1843 to take part in “ a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress. ”
Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. All rights reserved. | business |
Buy Nike Stock Because the Retailer Is Nearing ‘ a New Era’ of Revenue Growth | BS analyst Jay Sole thinks the stock can hit $ 136.
Photograph by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images
Nike
stock jumped 36% last year. An analyst at UBS thinks it can do even better in 2020.
The back story.
Nike stock ( ticker: NKE) outpaced the
S & P 500
index
in 2019,
rewarding investors with
record highs
amid
growing optimism
from analysts.
Shares, though, stumbled to begin the new year because of the coronavirus and
its potential to hurt earnings
. And it has been an early test for new
CEO John Donahoe.
What’ s new.
Nike stock rose above $ 100 in intraday trading Monday, as U.S. equity investors appeared to pare back
some coronavirus fears
. UBS analyst Jay Sole thinks the stock can hit $ 136.
Sole said Nike is nearing “ a new era ” of higher revenue growth rates. He cited the company’ s history of developing new strategies during times of slower growth to ignite rapid expansion, such as when it entered international markets in the 1980s, improved its distribution to retail outlets in the 1990s, and its tactic in 2007 for zeroing in on specific sports, which it called “ Category Offense. ”
This time, Sole argues that the company’ s consumer-direct strategy—nicknamed “ The Triple Double ” —will drive such growth.
“ The Triple Double represents Nike’ s effort to double the cadence of innovation, double its speed to market, and double its direct connection to consumers, ” he wrote.
Such investments are already paying off, according to Sole. He thinks Nike is poised to gain a larger share of a growing pie that is sportswear sales. Plus, its shift away from wholesale will be a key sales driver.
Looking ahead.
Sole raised his rating on the stock to Buy from Neutral, and brought his price target to $ 136 from $ 103. That represents 37% upside from Monday’ s close.
Citing product innovation, supply chain, and e-commerce, he raised his five-year sales compound annual growth rate estimate to 9% from 6.5%. He thinks that kind of growth, along with 42% adjusted return on invested capital, will lead investors to value Nike at 37 times earnings.
Nike stock rose 3% to $ 99.27 on Monday, on a day when the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 0.5%.
Write to
Connor Smith at
connor.smith @ barrons.com | business |
Online Gaming and Other Stocks That Could Benefit From Coronavirus | Online gaming will likely be the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus-triggered disruption.
Photograph by Fabian Albert
China’ s stock markets reopened on Monday after being closed for an extra-long Lunar New Year holiday. Not surprisingly, stocks tumbled amid the heightened fear for the coronavirus outbreak that has infected 17,205 people in China and killed 361—both exceeding that of the SARS outbreak in 2003.
Last week, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a
public-health emergency of international concern
.
The
Shanghai Composite
tumbled 7.7% as it caught up with last week’ s global market jitters. Investors are worried about
how the epidemic will impact the Chinese economy
in the first quarter or potentially even longer, with stores and restaurants closed, public activities canceled, and travel plans stalled.
But not every business is hurting. Some sectors might actually benefit from the coronavirus outbreak as people shift from activities such as movie-watching to online entertainment such as videogames, live streaming and social networking.
Online gaming will likely be the biggest beneficiary of the coronavirus-triggered disruption. Nomura analyst Jialong Shi noted that most of China’ s existing blockbuster gaming titles have seen a surge in play time and in-game purchases since January, which was further fueled by the release of new content by game operators.
Tencent’ s
Honor of King
, for example, led charts with its daily active users surpassing 100 million at its peak around the Lunar New Year, Shi said in a Monday note. The usual level is around 60 million to 70 million. The momentum will likely continue as most
Chinese colleges have postponed the start of the new school year
to mid- or late-February. College students are one of the top user groups for online and mobile games.
Tencent Holdings
( 0700.HK) and
NetEase
( NTES) —both with significant exposure to the online gaming business—appear to be some of the best plays among Chinese internet stocks, Shi wrote. Tencent trades at 26 times 2020 expected earnings, and NetEase at 18 times. NetEase also offers a dividend yield of 5%, which should provide a layer of downside support amid the market selloff.
Unlike the online gaming business, other online-leisure segments such as social media and video platforms are limited in their ability to directly translate the increased user traffic into financial gains. Although user engagement has surged since the outbreak of the coronavirus, many advertisers—especially those for offline businesses—are holding off their marketing campaigns. That means less revenue for the ad-supported platforms.
Editor's Choice
In terms of e-commerce, demand for most discretionary items has dropped considerably since the outbreak of the epidemic. Consumer-staples goods and groceries, not surprisingly, have remained resilient. However, the grocery category has long had the lowest online penetration in the e-commerce space, Shi noted, and the epidemic should have helped many grocery businesses acquire new online customers without the usual need for marketing campaigns and coupons.
The extended holidays may also affect the order volume of food delivery, as office workers and college students make up a big chunk of the customer base.
Many restaurants have closed
, leaving fewer choices for food-delivery customers. Lockdowns of cities, road closures and controlled access in certain regions of China will further affect e-commerce and food-delivery capabilities. Shi thinks
Meituan Dianping
( 3690.HK) —one of China’ s largest food-delivery platforms—could take a hit as its advertising clients cut their marketing budgets amid the business plunge.
On the other hand, logistics companies that can prove themselves as reliable and fast couriers during this period could get a boost in public recognition. For example,
JD.com
’ s
( JD) JD Logistics and
SF Holding Co.
( 002352.SHE), known as SF Express, are often designated by charity organizations to send supplies to front-line medical teams, which should help them build better brand awareness, Shi said.
Amid restrictions on physical gathering, including for work, the epidemic is essentially forcing people and businesses to embrace new online technologies and applications, and therefore become more convinced of the need to migrate their operations to the cloud. That could bode well for the
ambitions of China’ s cloud operators
such as
Alibaba
’ s
( BABA) AliCloud and Tencent Cloud.
Write to
Evie Liu at
evie.liu @ barrons.com | business |
Why the coronavirus ‘ poses a more significant threat’ to markets, economy than past epidemics | Investors who play down the impact of the coronavirus outbreak may do so at their own peril, one economist argued in a Monday note to clients.
Neal Shearing of Capital Economics said that while the ultimate impact of the virus is “ impossible to predict, ” market participants who are looking to the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, as a guide to how the current situation will unfold should do so with caution.
Related:
Coronavirus will ‘ shake markets out of their buy-the-dip’ mentality, says El-Erian
“ First, given the size and importance of China’ s economy, the impact on the global economy is likely to be more significant than in previous epidemics ( including SARS), ” Shearing wrote.
Meanwhile, China’ s more aggressive response today vis-a-vis the SARS outbreak will make its economic impact greater in China and abroad. “ The steps to contain the virus – rather than the virus itself – are causing most of the economic damage, ” he added.
“ It is therefore significant that the response by China’ s government has been both faster and more extensive than was the case with SARS. The Lunar New Year holiday has been extended for most of the country, keeping factories and other workplaces shut. Widespread travel restrictions have been imposed, transport services curtailed and tourist groups banned. ”
The third major difference between today and 2002 and 2003 is equity valuations.
“ The SARS virus hit at a time when global stock markets were starting to bottom out following the bursting of the dot-com bubble, ” Shearing wrote. In March of 2003, during the height of the SARS outbreak, the S & P 500 index’ s forward price-to-earnings ratio was around 17.3, according to FactSet, versus 18.2 today.
“ In contrast, the Wuhan virus has hit ten years into a bull market for equities. With valuations no longer cheap, and in some cases a little stretched, investors are more likely to be looking for an excuse to sell rather than buy, ” Shearing wrote. “ The potential for the virus to trigger a significant market correction is much greater now than it was back then. ”
U.S. stocks were
bouncing back strongly
from a Friday rout that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.41%
drop 600 points and pushed both the blue-chip gauge and the benchmark S & P 500
SPX,
-0.35%
into negative territory for January. | business |
Apple’ s Real Coronavirus Risk Is the iPhone Supply Chain | Apple stock should see limited impact from the coronavirus for now, some analysts say.
Photograph by Photo by Jack Taylor/Getty Images
On its earnings call last week
,
Apple
that the
evolving coronavirus crisis
introduces some unpredictability into the company’ s financial outlook. And that was immediately apparent. On the call last Tuesday, CEO Tim Cook said Apple had closed one store in China. But by the end of the week, the company had temporarily shut down all of its China facilities.
“ Out of an abundance of caution and based on the latest advice from leading health experts, ” Apple ( ticker: AAPL) said in a statement released Friday, “ we’ re closing all our corporate offices, stores and contact centers in mainland China through February 9. Apple’ s online store in China remains open. We will continue to closely monitor the situation and we look forward to reopening our stores as soon as possible. ”
While many analysts say the impact of the virus on Apple should be limited, investors should worry more about the iPhone supply chain than near-term retail sales, according to Deutsche Bank’ s Jeriel Ong.
Ong writes in a research note Monday that while overall the coronavirus issue continues to gain importance to the company, the size of the financial impact from the shuttering of their China retail stores is likely to be “ relatively minimal. ” Apple has 42 stores in China, and he estimates that a week of closures would imply just $ 40 million to $ 50 million in lost sales. ( Let’ s put this in perspective: Apple had overall December quarter sales of $ 91.8 billion—that’ s about $ 1 billion a day, or roughly $ 40 million an hour.) Additional activity in the App Store—as people stuck at home download more games and other apps—could offset some of those sales, he notes.
The bigger cause for concern is the supply chain. “ The real question to us is whether channel inventories work down materially, should production plants of Apple’ s semiconductor components or Foxconn’ s own plants be disrupted in any material way in the coming weeks, ” Ong writes. “ To us, it’ s too early to call shortages of iPhone parts, but in reality, disruption to any single part of the supply chain could impact Apple’ s ability to maintain their inventories even if the rest of the chain is working as planned. ”
For now, however, the stock should be low-risk when it comes to the virus, other analysts say.
Apple had said its relatively wide March quarter guidance range of between $ 63 billion and $ 67 billion in revenue reflects the potential effects of the virus. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani writes in a research note that by adjusting their outlook to reflect the risk involved in the virus, Apple has become “ one of the more de-risked ” China-affected stocks.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a research note over the weekend that there is a possibility that sales of up to 1 million iPhones could be shifted out of the March quarter and into the June quarter. But he adds that “ with the vast majority of sales online we view a one-week closure of Apple stores as having a negligible impact thus far despite the scary and concerning headlines from the region. ”
Adds Ives: “ While the coronavirus outbreak is a sad situation and concerning headline for investors, for the stock we believe the fundamental impact from this issue to Apple’ s top-line is negligible. ” He maintains his Outperform rating and $ 400 target.
Apple stock was up 0.8%, to $ 311.96 in recent trading.
Write to
Eric J. Savitz at
eric.savitz @ barrons.com | business |
Bitcoin Price Likely to Rise Until Coronavirus Peaks | Bitcoin’ s price is likely to continue to rise until the coronavirus peaks, affirms the CEO of one of the world’ s largest independent financial services and advisory organisations.
The comments from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as the price of the world’ s most influential digital currency has gained more than 10 per cent in a week.
It is also up 30 oper cent since the end of 2019, making 2020 the best start to the year for Bitcoin since 2012.
To date, there have been 17,335 confirmed cases of the potentially deadly Sars-like virus, including 362 deaths. Mainland China remains the epicentre of the outbreak, although cases have been reported in more than two-dozen countries including the UK, Japan, Thailand, the U.S., Spain, Australia and Germany.
Mr Green says: “ The ongoing upward trajectory of the price of Bitcoin correlates to the spread of the coronavirus.
“ The more individual cases that are identified, the more countries around the world that are affected, and the greater the impact on traditional financial markets, the higher the price of Bitcoin has jumped.
“ In this regard, we can expect Bitcoin’ s price is likely to continue to rise until the coronavirus peaks which, according to a prestigious research group in Hong Kong, is likely to be in late April or early May. ”
He continues: “ Why have investors been piling into Bitcoin recently? Because it is increasingly regarded as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty.
“ Bitcoin, known as ‘ digital gold’, shares characteristics of the traditional yellow metal including being a store of value, scarce, being perceived as being resistant to inflation, and a hedge against turmoil in traditional markets – many of which have been pushed in a tailspin since the coronavirus outbreak. ”
The deVere CEO says: “ Whilst coronavirus and geopolitical tensions have certainly been underscoring the reputation of decentralised, non-sovereign, secure currencies, such as Bitcoin, as safe-havens, they are somewhat peripheral drivers for why cryptocurrencies are now regarded as the future of money.
“ These key other factors include that they are digital, they are global, they solve real-life issues, big tech and institutional investors are coming off the sidelines, and worldwide demographics – the growth of the native digital generation – are on the side of crypto, meaning the future is, too. ”
Mr Green concludes: “ Whilst there will be minor peaks and troughs – as in all markets – I predict the overall trajectory of Bitcoin to remain upward until such time as coronavirus peaks. ”
Recommended AI News: AiThority.Com Primer On What Is Robotic Process Automation ( RPA) | tech |
‘ No Chinese allowed’: Racism and fear are now spreading along with the coronavirus | As Chinese health officials and citizens struggle to contain the coronavirus, people in countries including South Korea, Malaysia, the U.K. and Canada are reporting the spread of anti-Chinese racism, attacks on the country’ s cultural mores and businesses with signs saying, “ No Chinese. ”
The coronavirus, a pneumonia-causing illness that infects the respiratory tract,
was responsible for 425 deaths and 20,438 infections as Monday evening
, according to China’ s National Health Commission.
In the Philippines, a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan — the city believed to be the epicenter of the outbreak — was the first person to die outside China from the virus,
health officials in that country announced Sunday.
According to figures provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are confirmed cases in
more than two dozen countries or territories
, including Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and the U.S., the U.K. and Russia.
On Sunday,
New York City health officials said two more patients there were being tested for coronavirus
, bringing the total of suspected cases in that state to three.
Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said
5 million people had left the city
before travel restrictions were imposed ahead of the Chinese New Year. Ma Xiaowei, the director of China’ s National Health Commission, said that the virus had an
incubation period of up to 14 days
.
The focus on Wuhan, the Central Chinese city where the virus is believed to have been first diagnosed in December, and rumors about whether it began in a food market there, have led to reports of racism against Chinese people and
the sharing of xenophobic memes online
.
Sam Phan, a master’ s student at the University of Manchester,
wrote in the Guardian
: “ This week, my ethnicity has made me feel like I was part of a threatening and diseased mass. To see me as someone who carries the virus just because of my race is, well, just racist. ”
“ As an east Asian I can’ t help but feel more and more uncomfortable, ” added Phan, a British citizen. “ On the bus to work last week, as I sat down, the man next to me immediately scrambled to gather his stuff and stood up to avoid sitting next to me. ”
iframe.twitter-tweet { width: 100%! important; }
After five people were arrested in Malaysia for spreading fake news about the virus online, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said, “ The government will take action on those spreading fake news to instill fear among Malaysians and incite hatred among the races. ”
“ Even though we believe in freedom of press, that does not mean the press should agitate people and cause people to be antagonistic towards each other, ” he said,
according to the South China Morning Post
. “ We will take action against those people. ”
Photos of store and
restaurant windows
in
South Korea
and Japan shared on Twitter
TWTR,
+0.86%
reportedly have signs that say “ No Chinese allowed. ” A cafe near the Trevi fountain in Rome reportedly posted a sign prohibiting “ all people coming from China, ”
the Guardian reported.
Social-media users report that similar fear and misinformation spread during the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003.
A video of Chinese vlogger Wang Mengyun
eating bat soup
went viral along with thousands of comments — and, according to Mengyun, hate mail. But the video was recorded three years earlier in Palau, Micronesia, a Pacific island nation, not in China.
On Twitter, Canadian-based journalist
Andrew Kurjata wrote
, “ Perhaps revealing some naiveté, I’ m surprised at the level of vitriol towards Chinese people I’ m seeing in the comments sections of stories about the Wuhan coronavirus. And I mean towards the people, not the government. ”
Recommended:
This is how the illness has spread across the world so rapidly
An online petition
signed by parents
in one school district in Ontario, Canada, asked the school board to request parents whose children or whose families have recently returned from China “ to stay at home and keep isolated for a minimum of 17 days for the purpose of self-quarantine. ”
There were 11
confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S
. as of Monday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and state health officials.
On Monday, the Chinese government accused the U.S. of spreading “ panic ” over the coronavirus by restricting travel to China and evacuating its citizens. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Washington has “
unceasingly manufactured and spread panic. ”
“ It is precisely developed countries like the U.S. with strong epidemic prevention capabilities... that have taken the lead in imposing excessive restrictions contrary to [ World Health Organization ] recommendations, ”
she said.
Some Wuhan citizens have decried a backlash against them among fellow Chinese. April Pin, a Wuhan resident, circulated an open letter online, appealing to her fellow Chinese to show more compassion and understanding.
“ Many of my friends who left Wuhan did not realize [ how severe ] the situation was, ” she wrote in the letter, quoted by CNN.
She told the network
, “ There are too many comments online hurling abuse and denunciation at Wuhan people, ” adding, “ I feel wronged. ”
China has taken major steps to help prevent the spread of the virus. Officials in Wuhan, a city of 11 million residents that is widely regarded as the epicenter of the illness, closed the area’ s outgoing airport and railway stations and suspended all public transport.
Chinese officials have expanded that travel ban to 16 surrounding cities with a combined population of more than 50 million people, including Huanggang, a neighboring city to Wuhan with 7.5 million people, effectively putting those cities on lockdown.
The city’ s marathon, which was scheduled for Feb. 9 and typically attracts 70,000 participants, was canceled. Most of the coronavirus fatalities have been older patients, although a 36-year-old Hubei man died earlier this week, the
Associated Press
reported. Several major theme parks have also been shuttered.
Phan, writing in the Guardian, appealed for compassion over fear. “ It’ s important it is to see us in all our diversity, as individual human beings, and to challenge stereotypes. The coronavirus is a human tragedy, so let’ s not allow fear to breed hatred, intolerance and racism, ” he wrote.
This story was originally published on Jan. 29 and has been updated. | business |
COLUMN-With virus outbreak, China showcases micro drone surveillance: Peter Apps | ( The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
By Peter Apps
LONDON, Feb 3 ( Reuters) - Sometime last week, a small group of Chinese residents were sitting outside in the town of Chengdu. A small drone approached them, hovered nearby and began to speak.
“ Playing mahjong outside is banned during the epidemic, ” said a voice from the drone. “ You have been spotted. Stop playing and leave the site as soon as possible. ” “ Don’ t look at the drone, child, ” it continued. “ Ask your father to leave immediately. ”
For many in the rest of the world, what China’ s Global Times described as a “ creative use ” of drones to tackle its coronavirus outbreak may still sound like a scene from a futuristic dystopia. Those in power in Beijing, however, clearly view it as something to be proud of. The video was shared widely on Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo and showcased in its English-language media for consumption abroad.
It was, perhaps, an indicator of two important things. Firstly, not only is China keen to use all means at its disposal to contain the coronavirus outbreak, but it may well use it to harden, strengthen and demonstrate the growing capabilities of the most sophisticated surveillance state the world has ever known.
Secondly, of course, it demonstrates the proliferation of sophisticated, smaller unmanned vehicles and platforms as a tool for mass surveillance – as well as outright social control. That’ s a trend likely to be seen well beyond the world’ s more authoritarian states, and it is that one democracies will need to have a much more public and accessible conversation about than they have managed so far.
The uses for often already overstretched law enforcement and other security services are obvious. On Sunday, two people were stabbed in London by a recently released extremist, raising questions about the ability of authorities to keep track of individuals deemed risky. Automated technology solutions such as facial recognition software make that easier, but clearly also unsettle many.
In the United States, several towns and cities including Oakland and Berkeley in California and Cambridge, Massachusetts, have outright banned the use of facial recognition technology by law enforcement. Other states and locations are considering tighter controls – but across much of the rest of the United States and Western world, surveillance technology continues to be rolled out, sometimes largely unnoticed and unchallenged.
Much larger unmanned weapons-carrying drones have been at the centre of U.S. operations in the Middle East and beyond for years. Where the United States has led, China has often followed. Beijing is a major supplier of large armed drones to countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, frustrated by limits on U.S. drone exports. The next revolution, however, looks to involve much smaller drones that while less lethal, can also be a much more intrusive presence.
In August last year, the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Project Agency demonstrated a drone swarm at Fort Benning, Georgia, that used largely off-the-shelf technology to autonomously locate, find and monitor a specified object in a particular building – a city hall – in a U.S. military training complex. The aim is for swarms of up to 250 devices to be able to operate largely independently or controlled by a single operator, providing a level of mobile surveillance and coordination not previously available.
For now, the Chinese example demonstrates the limitations of that technology. Beijing has been pouring resources into drone and surveillance technology for decades. In 2018, the South China Morning Post reported that included developing flocks of unmanned aircraft designed to resemble birds such as doves in both appearance and movement. Such devices, it said, have already seen service along China’ s borders and in its north-western Xinjiang province, where a crackdown on Muslim minority ethnic Uighurs has long been a testbed for Beijing’ s surveillance state.
These devices, it said, have proved convincing enough that they can be flown over flocks of sheep – normally very sensitive to aircraft – without the animals determining their true nature. In the long run, Beijing almost certainly wants to match that technology with its other surveillance tools – widespread static cameras, and a colossal facial identification database the state has been building since 2015. Other tools reportedly developed by China include systems to identify people by their distinctive walking gaits.
The surveillance drones in the Global Times videos, however, are clearly under the control of individual human operators, their voices broadcast by loudspeaker. Another video from Jiangsu province, eastern China, showed a policewoman using a drone to check passengers at a crossing wearing masks. “ The handsome guy who is on the phone, where is your mask? Put it on please, ” she said through its loudspeaker. “ The girls who were eating food while walking, put on your masks please. You can eat when you arrive at home. ”
It’ s a reminder that for all its investment in technology, like previous mass surveillance states such as East Germany China remains dependent on using humans to watch other humans. That, however, is changing very quickly. Artificial intelligence algorithms, combined with the colossally larger data trails humans already leave, has already proved a game changer when it comes to targeted advertising. Numberplate recognition cameras mean most vehicles in most countries have their locations recorded sometimes dozens of times a day.
According to the “ Global Times ”, China’ s citizens viewed the Chengdu footage as useful entertainment while they stayed inside following the cancellation of Lunar New Year festivities. Whether that is true is another question – but it’ s an issue the rest of the world may also find itself grappling with sooner than it thinks. * * * Peter Apps is a writer on international affairs, globalisation, conflict and other issues. He is the founder and executive director of the Project for Study of the 21st Century; PS21, a non-national, non-partisan, non-ideological think tank. Paralysed by a war-zone car crash in 2006, he also blogs about his disability and other topics. He was previously a reporter for Reuters and continues to be paid by Thomson Reuters. Since 2016, he has been a member of the British Army Reserve and the UK Labour Party, and is an active fundraiser for the party. ( Editing by Giles Elgood) | business |
China Eastern Airlines: finally to allow evacuation of 200 Taiwanese from Wuhan tonight | After refusing to allow Taiwanese businessmen to flee Wuhan amid the novel coronavirus ( 2019nCoV) outbreak for a week, the first batch of over 200 Taiwanese evacuated from the city is expected to arrive in Taiwan on a charter jet on Monday evening ( Feb. 3).
The chairman of Wuhan's Taiwan Affairs Office, Hsiao Yung-jui confirmed to CNA that he had already received notice from the Taiwan Affairs Office ( TAO) that more than 200 Taiwanese businessmen stranded in Wuhan would be allowed to check in at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport starting at 6 p.m. Monday evening. The China Eastern Airlines charter jet will take off at 6:50 p.m. and is expected to arrive at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport at 9 p.m.
Hsiao said that Taiwanese businessmen in Wuhan will be notified of the exact flight times and dates and that TAO district offices will dispatch vehicles to transport them to the airport. He said that the charter flights will take place on Monday and Tuesday ( Feb. 4).
Hsu Cheng-wen who heads the Parents Association in Taipei, told the news agency that 501 Taiwanese remain in Hubei Province. He added that applications to evacuate from Wuhan were being distributed to Taiwanese in the city on Sunday morning ( Feb. 2).
CDC Deputy Director-General Chuang Jen-hsiang said that the evacuation process is expected to take one to two days and that a Taiwanese business owner surnamed Chin who was diagnosed with the novel coronavirus will stay in Wuhan for treatment. Regarding the public's concern that the evacuation would speed up the spread of the virus, Chuang said that all Taiwanese citizens in Wuhan would be placed under quarantine upon their entry into the country.
Chuang said that the government plans to utilize spare military camps and government dormitories as quarantine zones and equally distribute the returning individuals throughout the country. He pointed out that the locations of these facilities will remain undisclosed to keep nearby residents from becoming alarmed, reported CNA.
Unfortunately, Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je on Sunday apparently inadvertently revealed a location in Taipei where Taiwanese fleeing Wuhan will be kept under quarantine. During a press conference on Sunday afternoon, Ko told reporters that the returning Taiwanese businesspeople will be kept in isolation at the Bank of Taiwan dormitories in Yangmingshan.
When asked by the media to respond to Ko's disclosure of the location, Health and Welfare Minister Chen Shih-chung said, `` Anyone who releases information without the permission of the Command Center will be dealt with in accordance with the relevant regulations, '' reported ETtoday. Later that evening, when asked to respond to Chen's comment at a cherry festival in Neihu, Ko said, `` Oh, then don't talk about it. ''
When asked if his release of information on the quarantine site could lead to fear or panic, Ko sighed but did not respond, according to the report. When confronted again over why he had leaked the location, Ko said, `` Well, good question. I 'm not willing to respond to this question at this time. ''
© Pakistan Press International, source Asianet-Pakistan | business |
Trustworthy AI: A New Frontier in Ethics for Risk and Compliance Leaders | AI is often credited with making work easier and more efficient, but few organizations have a framework in place for its ethical use within risk management and compliance programs. Deloitte’ s Irfan Saif and Maureen Mohlenkamp explore how to rectify that issue.
Think of artificial intelligence ( AI) ethics as the organizational constructs that delineate right and wrong, such as corporate values, policies, codes of ethics and guiding principles applied to AI technologies. These constructs set goals and guidelines for AI throughout the product lifecycle – from research and design, to build and train and finally to change and operate.
As organizations discern how they’ ll adopt and leverage AI capabilities in the future, ethical frameworks are often missing, leaving organizations without a trustworthy AI foundation. In fact, a Deloitte study of 565 C-suite and other executives working at organizations using artificial intelligence found that nearly half ( 48.5 percent) of respondents expect to increase AI use for risk management and compliance efforts in the year ahead, but just 21.1 percent of respondents reported that their organizations have an ethical framework in place to guide AI use within related programs.
The bright side is that companies are more likely than not to involve Chief Risk Officers, Chief Compliance Officers and other top leaders in developing ethical, trustworthy AI practices. In the survey, more than half of respondents ( 53.5 percent) indicated that AI ethics responsibilities are established across their organizations’ C-suites, with only one-fifth ( 19 percent) noting the C-suite in their organizations have no AI ethics responsibilities.
To mitigate unintended and unethical consequences, ask questions early and often about ethical AI, technology and data use. To that end, following are some steps that organizations can take to support ethical, trustworthy AI use in their organizations:
Accountability from the top is a powerful way to ensure any program’ s success; therefore, it’ s important that corporate boards and C-suites set the tone for ethics and compliance programs, inclusive of AI ethics programs. Data officers, CIOs and CISOs — along with legal, ethics or compliance officers — should determine governance specific to AI, as well as to the processes and controls needed for work executed by machines versus humans.
Standards are necessary to guide, monitor and assess if technology and data are used ethically by employees, vendors and customers. For example, data scientists could develop an AI “ code of conduct ” and set up channels through which issues can be escalated. Ultimately, organizational standards for AI ethics should consider the growth of AI and the role of the machine, as the workforce of the future will not be limited to human beings.
AI ethics is as much about understanding the risks as it is about establishing a process for avoiding them. Organizations should review existing organizational policies, procedures and standards to address existing gaps, then expand existing policies or build new ones accordingly to fill any voids.
An educated and tech-savvy workforce should be better positioned to ethically embrace the opportunities that AI use creates, but for many organizations, a steep AI learning curve awaits. Non-technology business professionals will need to learn how to team with data scientists and technologists to understand the types of ethics risks AI can create and the potential impact this can have on the business, as well as how they can partner to help monitor for and stem those risks. Those who develop algorithms and manage data will also need to be specially trained to identify and mitigate bias within AI applications.
The best laid plans will still fail if no one is educated about what to look for in monitoring AI solutions for ethical compliance. One example is to design control structures to support ethical tech governance and embed them into AI-enabled solutions.
While AI offers exciting prospects, there is a potential dark side to AI that is hard to ignore. Those involved with the advancement of trustworthy AI use — including ethics and compliance professionals, corporate boards, management teams and IT professionals — face a growing imperative to bring an ethical lens to what they design and build. By instituting a top-level commitment to ethical leadership, a focus on technical and ethical literacy and ethical guardrails to limit missteps along the way, everyone in an organization can work together to produce solutions that represent AI’ s full potential.
Irfan Saif is a Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory principal and Deloitte’ s AI co-leader, Deloitte & Touche LLP. He has more than 25 years of technology and risk consulting experience and currently serves as a member of Deloitte’ s US Board of Directors. Maureen Mohlenkamp is a Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory principal, Deloitte & Touche LLP, specializing in ethics and compliance risk mitigation. Previously, she served as deputy ethics officer for Deloitte LLP. Maureen also serves on the advisory board of Notre Dame Deloitte Center for Ethical Leadership.
Ankura Consulting Group, a global expert services and advisory firm, has acquired Noragh Analytics. Terms of the deal between the...
The COVID-19 pandemic has proven an inflection point for the use of AI and ML technology in the health care...
Since last year's Data Privacy Day, system down times have continued to lengthen. Cyber insurance has continued to grow more...
In 2022, nations and organizations around the world will continue working to protect customer data against hackers and accidental breaches....
Founded in 2010, CCI is the web’ s premier global independent news source for compliance, ethics, risk and information security.
Got a news tip? Get in touch. Want a weekly round-up in your inbox? Sign up for free. No subscription fees, no paywalls. | general |
Inverse Leverage S & P 500 & U.S. Treasury: 2 ETFs to Watch on Outsized Volume | In the last trading session, U.S. stocks witnessed extremely rough trading on coronavirus scare. Among the top ETFs, investors saw SPY shed 1.8%, DIA lose 2.1%, and QQQ move 1.6% lower on the day.
Two more specialized ETFs are worth noting as both saw trading volume that was far outside of normal. In fact, both these funds experienced volume levels that were more than double their average for the most recent trading session. This could make these ETFs ones to watch out for in the days ahead to see if this trend of extra-interest continues.
SPXS: Volume 2.77 Times Average
This inverse leveraged S & P 500 ETF was in the spotlight as around 18.39 million shares moved hands compared with an average 6.63 million shares a day. We also saw some price movement as SPXS gained 5.5% in the last session.
The movement can largely be credited to the broader market slump due to the rising fear about coronavirus. SPXS has gained 0.5% in a month’ s time.
IEF: Volume 2.88 Times Average
This U.S. treasury bond ETF was under the microscope as 9.75 million shares moved hands. This compares with average trading volume of roughly 3.39 million shares and came as IEF gained 0.5% in the trading session. The big move was largely the result of a safe-haven rally. IEF has added 2.3% over the past month.
Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox?
Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. Get it free > >
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ( DIA): ETF Research Reports iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ( IEF): ETF Research Reports Invesco QQQ ( QQQ): ETF Research Reports SPDR S & P 500 ETF ( SPY): ETF Research Reports To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
Huawei, Chinese chip makers keep factories humming despite virus outbreak | Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd said on Monday it had resumed production of goods including consumer devices and carrier equipment, and operations were running normally.
The company restarted manufacturing after the Lunar New Year holiday in line with a special exemption that allows certain critical industries to remain in operation, despite Beijing's call to halt all work in some cities and provinces.
The spokesman said most of the production was in, a city in the southern province of Guangdong.
Various provinces and cities in China have called for factories to halt work, though companies in certain industries can remain in operation while others can apply for an exemption
A notice in Shanghai, for example, says that business involved in producing food supplies, medical supplies or sectors relevant to the national economy.
Other companies have also kept production running, in some cases even through the New Year, in a sign of the critical importance Beijing places on its domestic tech supply chain, a subject of friction with the United States
Yangtze Memory Technologies Co Ltd ( YMTC), a state-backed maker of flash memory chips based in Wuhan - the city where the virus outbreak began - confirmed that it had not ceased production.
`` At present, production and operations at YMTC are proceeding normally and in an orderly manner, '' a company spokesman wrote in a statement.
The spokesman said no employees had been confirmed as infection cases, and the company had enacted certain isolation measures and partitions to ensure the safety of employees.
State media reported that the chip maker did not cease operations over the Lunar New Year holiday.
Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp ( SMIC) also kept production running through the holiday break.
In a post on social media, the company said it organised a work group before the holiday to ensure plants could stay open, while protecting the safety of employees and adhering to government regulations.
`` SMIC needs to ensure that factory production runs 365 days a year and 24 hours a day to meet customers ' fabrication needs, '' the company said in the post.
The company, which rivals Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, has facilities in Tianjin, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai.
Nina Kao, TSMC's spokeswoman, told Reuters that the company currently `` maintains partial operation '' in China and it plans to resume full operation on Feb 10.
POSSIBLE DELAYS
TCL Corp, makers of display panels and televisions, said on Monday that while the lines at its China Star Optoelectronics Technology Unit ( CSOT) for LCD screens `` operate non-stop all-year round, '' its Wuhan factories can expect delays in manufacturing materials supply.
BOE Technology Group Co Ltd, another Chinese maker of displays, told state media outlet Global Times that one of its plants at Wuhan had encountered a supply shortage due to amid the virus.
Research firm TrendForce, which tracks the global memory sector, reported that plants at Changxin Memory Technologies Co Ltd ( CXMT), based in a city close to Wuhan, and Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, another memory company based in Wuhan, were continuing their operations.
The two companies did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment.
Overseas parts makers with factories in China have also continued production.
Samsung Electronics has not seen a production disruption at its chip factory in Xi'an despite the coronavirus outbreak, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
They did not give further details.
A Samsung Electronics representative confirmed that the plant had been running as usual, saying production had not stopped during the Lunar New Year holiday.
Representatives of Samsung Display, SK Hynix and LG Display also said they were running their Chinese factories as usual.
DRAMexChange wrote in a research note that it expected the virus to have no immediate impact on memory prices, though it could delay planned expansions for some companies.
However, one Samsung source said the virus could still affect supply and demand.
`` It is common sense that if the situation is prolonged, that it will hurt the industry. But I don't know how long it will last, '' the company source told Reuters.
( This story adds missing word in paragraph 19.)
( Reporting by Josh Horwitz and Brenda Goh in Shanghai; Heekyong Yang and Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell, Robert Birsel and Louise Heavens) | business |
Deutsche Bankkunden interagieren immer mehr mobil |
Inhalte, für die Sie sich interessieren, werden hier gespeichert und können später gelesen oder weitergeleitet werden.
Inhalte, für die Sie sich interessieren, werden hier gespeichert und können später gelesen oder weitergeleitet werden.
Inhalt wurde aus dem Red Folder entfernt
Der Zugang über Smartphone und Tablet verdrängt Onlinebanking vom langjährigen Spitzenplatz.
Von Dirk Vater und Markus Bergmann
Im Jahr 2019 haben Kunden erstmals am häufigsten ihr Smartphone oder Tablet für Routineinteraktionen mit ihrer Bank genutzt. Dagegen verzeichnet das Onlinebanking bereits seit Jahren einen deutlichen Rückgang. Diese Entwicklung entspricht dem globalen Trend hin zum Mobile-Banking. Wie unsere aktuelle Bain-Studie zeigt, ergeben sich aus dem veränderten Kundenverhalten neue Chancen für die deutschen Kreditinstitute. „ Mobile First “ -Kunden sind deutlich zufriedener. So liegt die mit dem Net Promoter Score® ( NPS®) messbare Loyalität von Mobile-Banking-Kunden in Deutschland deutlich über dem Wert von Kontoinhabern, die mehrheitlich traditionelle Zugangswege nutzen. Ein hoher NPS hat dabei unmittelbare wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen. Denn besonders loyale Kunden besitzen unserer Studie zufolge mehr Produkte ihrer Bank, erwerben dort auch häufiger weitere Finanzprodukte und wechseln seltener.
Bain-Studie zur Kundenloyalität im Retail-Banking
Clients are hungry for strong financial planning. Can firms speed the transition to a more digital, cost-effective model that delivers what customers value?
Annual revenues will drop by almost one-third at some payments companies.
Our interactive diagnostic can help you assess the actions your bank should consider in response to the coronavirus crisis.
Employees, customers and the balance sheet all need shoring up.
After nearly going bust, the bank has regained stability and growth by following the customer lodestar.
Bain Insights. Unsere Perspektive auf die kritischen Themen, mit denen sich international agierende Unternehmen konfrontiert sehen, finden Sie monatlich in Ihrem Postfach.
© 1996-2020 Bain & Company, Inc. | business |
Coronavirus: Eight US airports to receive flights from China | The US Department of Homeland Security ( DHS) has announced new rules regarding aircraft arrivals from China to restrict the spread of the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China.
By Kavya Chivukula
Visit our Covid-19 microsite for the latest coronavirus news, analysis and updates
Follow the latest updates of the outbreak on our timeline.
The US Department of Homeland Security ( DHS) has announced new rules regarding aircraft arrivals from China to restrict the spread of the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China.
Coronavirus has so far killed 362 and infected 17,386 people in 25 countries.
Related
The DHS stated that all flights arriving from China and passengers who visited China in the past 14 days will be rerouted to eight specified airports in the country.
DHS Acting Secretary Chad F Wolf said: “ While the overall risk to the American public remains low, funnelling all flights with passengers who have recently been in China is the most important and prudent step we can take at this time to decrease the strain on public health officials screening incoming travellers.
“ These steps will also expedite the processing of US citizens returning from China, and ensure resources are focused on the health and safety of the American people. ”
The airports with the necessary authorisations are JFK Airport, O’ Hare Airport, San Francisco Airport, Seattle-Tacoma Airport, Honolulu Airport, Los Angeles Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Airport, and Washington-Dulles Airport.
The department has also authorised three additional airports, Newark Liberty Airport, Dallas / Fort Worth Airport and Detroit Metropolitan Airport to receive the flights and passengers from 3 February.
These 11 airports will be equipped with enhanced screening procedures, as well as provisions to quarantine passengers who may be infected.
The US has reported nine confirmed cases of the coronavirus infection, however, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) states that immediate risk to the general public is low.
Wolf added: “ To minimise disruptions, CBP and air carriers are working to identify qualifying passengers before their scheduled flights. Once back in the US, it’ s imperative that individuals honour self-quarantine directives to help protect the American public. ” | general |
Exxon, Chevron Earnings Intensify Woes for Energy ETFs | Energy appears to be the weakest sector this reporting cycle. Total fourth-quarter earnings for the sector are expected to be down 47.1% from the same period last year on 3% lower revenues.Earnings from two U.S. supermajor oil producers, namely Exxon Mobil XOM and Chevron CVX aggravated concerns of the energy sector, which has been struggling from demand slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak ( read: Virus Scare Weighs on Oil ETFs: Go Short for the Near Term).Although Exxon Mobil missed on both earnings and revenues, Chevron topped on the bottom line.Earnings in FocusThe largest U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil reported earnings per share of 41 cents, lagging the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents and also declining from the year-ago earnings of $ 1.51. Revenues dropped 6.6% year over year to $ 67.17 billion and also fell shy of the estimated figure of $ 69.1 billion. Shares of XOM dipped 4.1% to hit the lowest level since September 2010 ( read: What’ s in Store for Energy ETF This Earnings Season?).Chevron beat on earnings per share by a penny. Earnings of $ 1.49 were lower than the year-ago figure of $ 2.06. Revenues fell 14.2% year over year to $ 36.35 billion and also fell short of the consensus mark of $ 39.85 billion. The stock slipped 3.8% after earnings announcement.ETFs in FocusGiven this scenario, energy ETFs with the largest allocation to energy behemoths are in focus. Below we highlighted a few in detail, which carry a Zacks ETF Rank # 5 ( Strong Sell), suggesting more pains ahead.Energy Select Sector SPDR XLEThis is the largest and the most-popular ETF in the energy space with AUM of $ 15.3 billion and average daily volume of 15.3 million shares per day. Expense ratio is 0.13%. The fund follows the Energy Select Sector Index and holds 28 securities in its basket. XOM and CVX occupy the top two spots with 22.4% and 20.4% share, respectively ( read: Can Energy ETFs Rebound as China Promises Ramped-up Purchases?).iShares U.S. Energy ETF IYEThis ETF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index, giving investors exposure to U.S. companies that produce and distribute oil and gas. It holds 49 stocks in its basket with AUM of $ 510.1 million and average daily volume of about 518,000 shares. The product charges 42 bps in fees per year from investors. Exxon Mobil and Chevron occupy the top two positions in the basket, taking the bigger chunk of assets at 23.6% and 18.2%, respectively.Vanguard Energy ETF VDEThis fund manages $ 2.9 billion in asset base and provides exposure to a basket of 136 energy stocks by tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index. The product sees a good volume of about 410,000 shares and charges 10 bps in annual fees. Here again, Exxon and Chevron are the two leading firms with 21.8% and 17.5% allocation each ( see: all the Energy ETFs here).Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF FENYThe fund follows the MSCI USA IMI Energy Index, holding 113 stocks in its basket. Of these, XOM and CVX take the top two spots at 22.7% and 17.6%, respectively. The product charges 8 bps in annual fees and trades in a good volume of around 259,000 shares. It has accumulated $ 391.9 million in its asset base.Want key ETF info delivered straight to your inbox? Zacks’ free Fund Newsletter will brief you on top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, each week. Get it free > >
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares U.S. Energy ETF ( IYE): ETF Research Reports Vanguard Energy ETF ( VDE): ETF Research Reports Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF ( FENY): ETF Research Reports Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF ( XLE): ETF Research Reports Exxon Mobil Corporation ( XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report Chevron Corporation ( CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report | business |
TCL Electronics Takes Active Against Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia | TCL Electronics Holdings Limited has taken several active measures against the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus ( the ” Epidemic ”). Meanwhile, the Company assures that the global supplies and the business operations remain normal during the Epidemic.
On 26 January, TCL Electronics donated LCD displays to Huoshenshan Hospital and Leishenshan Hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Province for their need in the process of construction, and the Company sent off a special team for the installation. At the same time, the Company’ s subsidiary company Shenzhen Falcon Network Technology ( Falcon Network Technology), which is the Company’ s internet TV operating platform, sets up a coronavirus-themed channel on the homepage of the TCL TV and provides some popular paid contents to the public for free.
In addition, the Company puts the life safety and health of employees as the top priority and promptly carries out a series of measures, including: 1) implementing effective prevention and control, such as daily disinfection in factories, offices and dormitories, provision of sanitary supplies and isolated observation areas, strengthening health protection and monitoring of on-duty employees, and keeping a daily updated health record of homecoming employees; 2) establishing a multi-level working group to implement various prevention and provide necessary services; 3) strict control and checking on access and exit of personnel and vehicles; 4) the employees in Guangdong start working from home, remotely or online to ensure global business operations since 3 February. Most of the employees will resume work in office from 10 February; 5) postponing the resumption of work of employees from Hubei Province.
In response to the Epidemic, the Company spares no efforts to ensure its business developing smoothly. Overseas markets have become the engine of the Company’ s TV business. In 2019, sales volume of TCL brand TV in overseas markets accounted for more than 65% of the overall TCL brand TV sales volume. At present, the Company’ s overseas sales business are moving on as usual. Meanwhile, with factories in Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, Poland, India, etc., the Company’ s total production capacity layout in overseas exceeds 15 million sets per year, which is sufficient to meet its shipment demand in the overseas markets.
For the PRC market, the Company has prepared inventory prior to the Chinese Lunar New Year, which can guarantee the supplies in the domestic market in the near future. In recent years, the Company keeps strengthening its online sales channels and increasing its e-commerce sales proportion of the total sales. Efforts have also been made to clearly define customer segments and develop new online customers. At present, its e-commerce business channels are rather mature, covering the official online mall, Suning, JD, and Tmall, and enough to meet customer demands. As for after-sales service, the Company has rolled out online self-service in response to the Epidemic, which provides customers with shopping guide services, such as upgrading discounts, purchasing large-screen products, etc.
For the Internet business, during the Chinese Lunar New Year, Falcon Network Technology particularly has launched a featured channel for the Spring Festival Gala, and more than 20 featured categories across movies, TV series, variety shows, cartoons for children, and documentaries, providing users with more high-quality films and television contents and continuously enhancing user experience. In addition, aligned with Tencent, Falcon Network Technology specially has provided 56 free-for-limited-time high-quality contents, to meet users’ demands during the Chinese Lunar New Year, which further enhances user loyalty and extends TV screen time. Meanwhile, such many activities as Warm-up for New Year Purchases, sending blessing cards, lucky draw, special designed programs are provided. These activities will be extended to the Lantern Festival to accommodate extension of the holiday. As of 31st January 2020, the number of existing subscribers grew by 177.3% （1）compared to the same period in 2019.
Recommended AI News: AiThority.Com Primer On What Is Robotic Process Automation ( RPA) | tech |
Hong Kong's economy was wrecked by protests. Coronavirus is the last thing this city needs. | Officials on Monday said Hong Kong's economy shrank 1.2% last year as massive pro-democracy protests paralyzed the city's streets and scared away tourists. GDP shrank 2.9% in the fourth quarter alone. The trade spat between Washington and Beijing compounded the problem, as did concerns about China's economic growth.
Until recently, the Asian financial hub had reason to hope that 2020 would be better. The demonstrations were becoming less frequent, while an initial trade deal provided some hope that the relationship between the United States and China could improve.
`` The US-China phase one trade deal and growth stabilization in China should have been positive for Hong Kong's near-term economic outlook, '' said Tommy Wu, a senior economist at Oxford Economics. `` But it has been overshadowed by the coronavirus outbreak. ''
Hong Kong now has to worry about how to stave off a dangerous epidemic that spurred government officials to cancel school for weeks, order civil servants to work from home and urge private companies to do the same. Retail stores, theme parks, cultural attractions and other hotspots also remain closed. Crowds are still common, but most people are wearing face masks as a form of protection.
The coronavirus `` will definitely cause a double blow to the economy, '' Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan wrote in a Sunday blog post. He added that the virus `` will greatly increase the risk of continued economic contraction this year. ''
The Hong Kong government said Monday that the city's economic outlook this year is `` subject to high uncertainties, '' including the global economy, trade and the protests. As for the coronavirus outbreak, the government said it would `` monitor the situation closely. ''
Hong Kong, which has some level of autonomy from mainland China and its own immigration system, has managed to avoid the worst of the outbreak. Only 15 cases have been confirmed in the city, and there have been no deaths. Just over the border in mainland China, the number of confirmed cases totals more than 17,000, while at least 360 people have died.
But the memory of 2003's SARS crisis looms large in Hong Kong, reminding its people of the toll a serious disease can take on the city. More than 280 of the 774 people who died from SARS were reported in Hong Kong, the highest death toll outside of mainland China. The SARS scare caused the city's economy to shrink 0.5% in the second quarter before it rebounded later in the year.
A 'double whammy ' for businesses
Last year's protest movement led millions of Hong Kongers to take to the streets and demand democratic and police reforms. Some clashes between protesters and police became violent, and tear gas, petrol bombs, rubber bullets and water cannons became part of the city's new normal.
The protests hit the city's hospitality and food and beverage industries particularly hard. Many people just stopped going out, fearful that if they strayed too far from home they would find themselves accidentally caught up in a demonstration or cut off from public transportation.
Despite the turmoil, the hospitality industry had been showing signs of recovery in December, according to Allan Zeman, the founder of the property developer Lan Kwai Fong Group.
`` It's kind of a double whammy for Hong Kong, '' said Zeman, whose company developed the popular Hong Kong nightlife district Lan Kwai Fong.
`` We were hoping that going into the Year of the Rat that this would continue, '' he added, referring to this year's Lunar New Year zodiac. `` Suddenly, the coronavirus hit. ''
Black Sheep Restaurants, a group that runs more than 20 Hong Kong businesses, echoed that show of progress, along with concerns about the virus.
`` Things were on the up at the end of last year and first couple of weeks of [ January ], '' Co-founder Syed Asim Hussain told CNN Business in an email. `` However we are now again between a rock and a hard place. ''
Hussain said the company's main concern is the safety of its team. But he added that Black Sheep expects February to be slow, potentially leading to a `` financial write off '' for the first quarter.
Tourism is another major concern for the city. The protests already took a heavy toll on the industry: The number of people who visited Hong Kong in November plunged by nearly half compared to a year earlier, according to the latest available government figures.
The coronavirus outbreak will likely exacerbate that problem. Most of Hong Kong's visitors come from mainland China, where many cities have placed their residents on lockdown. Hong Kong has also closed some of its border crossings into the mainland in an attempt to stop the virus from spreading.
Too early to tell
What's still uncertain is how dramatic and long lasting the effects of the coronavirus will be on Hong Kong's economy.
Iris Pang, an economist at ING, told CNN Business that she expects retail to be moderately affected by the outbreak, noting that last year's protests caused those businesses to take a big hit. But she added that ING doesn't think the virus will have a substantial impact on GDP.
Goldman Sachs on Friday cut its forecast for Hong Kong's economic growth in the first quarter from 5.6% to 4%. The analysts attributed that in large part to how the virus will impact the city's tourism, retail, hospitality, and food and beverage industries.
The bank warned that things could get worse, and that a prolonged outbreak could lower full-year economic growth to 5% or less.
Wu, of Oxford Economics, said the virus could have a `` drastic '' impact on the economy.
`` Some sectors are doing better — like supermarkets, drugstores etc. But shopping malls and luxury brands will likely be hit badly, '' he said.
Wu added that the problem isn't just about the lack of tourism in the city, but about how much people who already live in Hong Kong will spend as worries about the spread of the virus grow.
Zeman, of Lan Kwai Fong, the said it's too early to tell how bad the effects will be, since a lot of businesses are just now getting back to work after the Lunar New Year. The holiday ended last Wednesday, but many in the city typically take the whole week off.
But the government-mandated closures of schools and some public facilities, along with official encouragement that people stay indoors, will likely mean an uncertain future for many businesses.
`` It's not an easy situation, because at the moment, there's no light at the end of the tunnel, '' said Zeman. `` I know many of my tenants, I don't know if they can survive. ''
-- Sherisse Pham and Michelle Toh contributed to this report. | business |
How Cities and Architecture Respond to the Coronavirus | Does the Coronavirus concern us? Yes, it does. Beyond the rush for health cures, cities are seen to react by using both architecture and urban strategic planning as tools for the virus’ containment, shattering our notions of city and resilience planning.
Does the Coronavirus concern us? Yes, it does. Beyond the rush for health cures, cities are seen to react by using both architecture and urban strategic planning as tools for the virus’ containment, shattering our notions of city and resilience planning.
What do we need to know about Coronaviruses? They are not new. First identified in the 1960s, they are common in both humans and animals, and while some of them are not dangerous, others are extremely serious. In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) outbreak was responsible for a death toll of 774, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ( MERS) in 2012 was accountable for 282 dead, and the most recent one — the Coronavirus ( technically known as the COVID-19) which started in Wuhan— is alarming in view of its rapidly rising number of suspected cases and death. Coronaviruses are classified as ‘ zoonotic diseases’, meaning they can spread to people from animals. Just like in the case of SARS, and the Coronavirus outbreak, bats were the original carriers. The bats then transmitted the virus to other animals, which then transmitted it to humans.
What do we need to know about Coronaviruses? They are not new. First identified in the 1960s, they are common in both humans and animals, and while some of them are not dangerous, others are extremely serious. In 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) outbreak was responsible for a death toll of 774, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ( MERS) in 2012 was accountable for 282 dead, and the most recent one — the Coronavirus ( technically known as the COVID-19) which started in Wuhan— is alarming in view of its rapidly rising number of suspected cases and death. Coronaviruses are classified as ‘ zoonotic diseases’, meaning they can spread to people from animals. Just like in the case of SARS, and the Coronavirus outbreak, bats were the original carriers. The bats then transmitted the virus to other animals, which then transmitted it to humans.
Observing the evolution of the outbreak reveals fascinating insights into how cities ( both in China and overseas) are responding to the crisis. Since the reported outbreak on the 9th of January by the World Health Organisation ( WHO), the Wuhan meat market, where the coronavirus originated, was closed and invaded by people in hazmat suits. Two weeks later the city of Wuhan was placed on lockdown, and rapidly after, the zone expanded to 15 cities ( including Shanghai’ s Disneyland). In total, 56 million people were physically cut from the outer world with public transportation disabled and roads closed, during the Chinese Lunar New Year. To put this in perspective, 209 countries have a population of less than 56 million!
Observing the evolution of the outbreak reveals fascinating insights into how cities ( both in China and overseas) are responding to the crisis. Since the reported outbreak on the 9th of January by the World Health Organisation ( WHO), the Wuhan meat market, where the coronavirus originated, was closed and invaded by people in hazmat suits. Two weeks later the city of Wuhan was placed on lockdown, and rapidly after, the zone expanded to 15 cities ( including Shanghai’ s Disneyland). In total, 56 million people were physically cut from the outer world with public transportation disabled and roads closed, during the Chinese Lunar New Year. To put this in perspective, 209 countries have a population of less than 56 million!
How do communities react to this? Interestingly, there are two reported sides of this, where residents are collectively chanting slogans from balconies to keep their moods up, contrasting with the scenes of desolation which reigns in the now ghost cities, and the impromptu acts by civilians to create secluded inner free-virus zones. In a report by SkyNews, structural measures in the form of makeshift brickwalls are seen to emerge in an attempt to prevent outsiders from accessing selected areas in the city. Those are accompanied by signs saying: ‘ No Outsiders Allowed’, and by volunteer health checkpoints. Residents are not doing this on governmental orders, but in a bid to prevent their communities from the risks of the virus outbreak. A natural urge of bunkering to further seclude from the city is observed. But what does this mean for residents?
How do communities react to this? Interestingly, there are two reported sides of this, where residents are collectively chanting slogans from balconies to keep their moods up, contrasting with the scenes of desolation which reigns in the now ghost cities, and the impromptu acts by civilians to create secluded inner free-virus zones. In a report by SkyNews, structural measures in the form of makeshift brickwalls are seen to emerge in an attempt to prevent outsiders from accessing selected areas in the city. Those are accompanied by signs saying: ‘ No Outsiders Allowed’, and by volunteer health checkpoints. Residents are not doing this on governmental orders, but in a bid to prevent their communities from the risks of the virus outbreak. A natural urge of bunkering to further seclude from the city is observed. But what does this mean for residents?
Bunkering in homes, in this context, for long periods of time tests car-dependent cities as residents go out only for grocery shopping. This is problematic as some roads are closed and large groups of people are made to converge to singular points for shopping due to centralised planning ideologies. The lessons of Nikos Salingaros ( Professor and ArchDaily contributor) and of Carlos Moreno ( currently pursuing the’ 15-minutes city’) are valuable here as we understand that centralised planning may lead in this case to increased chances of virus infections. Decentralisation in this case not only reduces automobile dependency by removing the need for the car altogether but also provides community resilience as smaller communities can still function if they decide to disconnect from the larger city.
Bunkering in homes, in this context, for long periods of time tests car-dependent cities as residents go out only for grocery shopping. This is problematic as some roads are closed and large groups of people are made to converge to singular points for shopping due to centralised planning ideologies. The lessons of Nikos Salingaros ( Professor and ArchDaily contributor) and of Carlos Moreno ( currently pursuing the’ 15-minutes city’) are valuable here as we understand that centralised planning may lead in this case to increased chances of virus infections. Decentralisation in this case not only reduces automobile dependency by removing the need for the car altogether but also provides community resilience as smaller communities can still function if they decide to disconnect from the larger city.
From construction and architectural standpoint, China does not disappoint with incredible resources invested to support its health needs. The construction of a 1,000 bed hospital started with a completion deadline of only 6 days ( expected completion 3 Feb). Following this, an additional one was announced to house 1,300 beds, with a completion deadline of 15 days. Meanwhile, buildings are being renovated in record times to house the increasing number of patients, currently lining up in hospital wards. The situation is so bad that doctors have been reported to wear diapers so as not to waste time with toilet breaks. The demand for ultra-rapid construction surge, and architectural sustainability issues are put aside in favour of human survival.
From construction and architectural standpoint, China does not disappoint with incredible resources invested to support its health needs. The construction of a 1,000 bed hospital started with a completion deadline of only 6 days ( expected completion 3 Feb). Following this, an additional one was announced to house 1,300 beds, with a completion deadline of 15 days. Meanwhile, buildings are being renovated in record times to house the increasing number of patients, currently lining up in hospital wards. The situation is so bad that doctors have been reported to wear diapers so as not to waste time with toilet breaks. The demand for ultra-rapid construction surge, and architectural sustainability issues are put aside in favour of human survival.
The urban economy is expected to take a toll, and this can not be disregarded as cities contribute more than 80% to global GDP. From the SARS outbreak, an estimated economic impact of US $ 12-18 billion resulting from the tourism, travel and retail sales industries alone. The Zika virus outbreak on its end is estimated to have costed local economies in affected areas between US $ 7-18 billion, while the Ebola virus caused an estimated loss of US $ 2.2 billion in the GDP of three economies ( Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) in 2015 alone. As it is too early to compute the foresee the economic impact of the Coronavirus on the 15 cities and the resulted impacts on the Chinese economy, resilience planning is expected to be reviewed to ensure that urban economic functions continue, even if at reduced paces, in future outbreaks.
The urban economy is expected to take a toll, and this can not be disregarded as cities contribute more than 80% to global GDP. From the SARS outbreak, an estimated economic impact of US $ 12-18 billion resulting from the tourism, travel and retail sales industries alone. The Zika virus outbreak on its end is estimated to have costed local economies in affected areas between US $ 7-18 billion, while the Ebola virus caused an estimated loss of US $ 2.2 billion in the GDP of three economies ( Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) in 2015 alone. As it is too early to compute the foresee the economic impact of the Coronavirus on the 15 cities and the resulted impacts on the Chinese economy, resilience planning is expected to be reviewed to ensure that urban economic functions continue, even if at reduced paces, in future outbreaks.
Having big tech on our side can help, as our cities are increasingly becoming a playground for ICT corporations due to the rising popularity of Smart Cities, where the IoT market is expected to explode to reach 20 billion this year ( 2020) and 41 billion in 2025. This wealth of data is coined as being the new gold rush, but -besides privacy concerns, there are criticisms that its use is mainly limited by large ICT corporations for monetary gain; hence limiting data-communication between smart city devices and across systems. This segmented data approach negates the efficiency that such concepts prone, where datasets could be processed through Artificial Intelligence ( AI) tools. However, even with limited datasets, the coronavirus outbreak was managed to be detected 9 days earlier by a Canadian AI algorithm. However, more precise readings can be obtained through larger datasets by ensuring that protocols on data sharing are calibrated to remove all hurdles appertaining to sharing of information and for this, there is a need for standardization of protocols between smart city operators and device manufacturers.
Having big tech on our side can help, as our cities are increasingly becoming a playground for ICT corporations due to the rising popularity of Smart Cities, where the IoT market is expected to explode to reach 20 billion this year ( 2020) and 41 billion in 2025. This wealth of data is coined as being the new gold rush, but -besides privacy concerns, there are criticisms that its use is mainly limited by large ICT corporations for monetary gain; hence limiting data-communication between smart city devices and across systems. This segmented data approach negates the efficiency that such concepts prone, where datasets could be processed through Artificial Intelligence ( AI) tools. However, even with limited datasets, the coronavirus outbreak was managed to be detected 9 days earlier by a Canadian AI algorithm. However, more precise readings can be obtained through larger datasets by ensuring that protocols on data sharing are calibrated to remove all hurdles appertaining to sharing of information and for this, there is a need for standardization of protocols between smart city operators and device manufacturers.
What’ s next, as the world observes closely this pandemic, is the need for increased discussions between various stakeholders, expanding it the health sphere to others; include Architectural and Urban organizations, like the International Union of Architects ( UIA), the International Society of City and Regional Planners ( ISOCARP), and others alongside big ICT corporations. Discussions on the future of cities, in our current urbanized world, can only have sustainable outcomes if all actors understanding or set to understand, the intricate relationships between the various urban dimensions -including social ones, are present. On this, design professionals need to voice out. It is important we contribute to the discussion, as we are witnessing a global catastrophe. As problem solvers, we can collaboratively work towards the study of how to provide higher liveability in those Chinese cities and in others, in less developed economies, should the virus spread further in the weeks to come.
What’ s next, as the world observes closely this pandemic, is the need for increased discussions between various stakeholders, expanding it the health sphere to others; include Architectural and Urban organizations, like the International Union of Architects ( UIA), the International Society of City and Regional Planners ( ISOCARP), and others alongside big ICT corporations. Discussions on the future of cities, in our current urbanized world, can only have sustainable outcomes if all actors understanding or set to understand, the intricate relationships between the various urban dimensions -including social ones, are present. On this, design professionals need to voice out. It is important we contribute to the discussion, as we are witnessing a global catastrophe. As problem solvers, we can collaboratively work towards the study of how to provide higher liveability in those Chinese cities and in others, in less developed economies, should the virus spread further in the weeks to come.
We invite you to check out ArchDaily's coverage related to COVID-19, read our tips and articles on Productivity When Working from Home and learn about technical recommendations for Healthy Design in your future projects. Also, remember to review the latest advice and information on COVID-19 from the World Health Organization ( WHO) website.
We invite you to check out ArchDaily's coverage related to COVID-19, read our tips and articles on Productivity When Working from Home and learn about technical recommendations for Healthy Design in your future projects. Also, remember to review the latest advice and information on COVID-19 from the World Health Organization ( WHO) website. | tech |
A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China | Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser ( or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.
Advertisement
Nature volume 579, pages 265–269 ( 2020) Cite this article
551k Accesses
4201 Citations
2654 Altmetric
Metrics details
An Author Correction to this article was published on 02 April 2020
This article has been updated
Emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) and Zika virus disease, present a major threat to public health1,2,3. Despite intense research efforts, how, when and where new diseases appear are still a source of considerable uncertainty. A severe respiratory disease was recently reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. As of 25 January 2020, at least 1,975 cases had been reported since the first patient was hospitalized on 12 December 2019. Epidemiological investigations have suggested that the outbreak was associated with a seafood market in Wuhan. Here we study a single patient who was a worker at the market and who was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan on 26 December 2019 while experiencing a severe respiratory syndrome that included fever, dizziness and a cough. Metagenomic RNA sequencing4 of a sample of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from the patient identified a new RNA virus strain from the family Coronaviridae, which is designated here ‘ WH-Human 1’ coronavirus ( and has also been referred to as ‘ 2019-nCoV’). Phylogenetic analysis of the complete viral genome ( 29,903 nucleotides) revealed that the virus was most closely related ( 89.1% nucleotide similarity) to a group of SARS-like coronaviruses ( genus Betacoronavirus, subgenus Sarbecovirus) that had previously been found in bats in China5. This outbreak highlights the ongoing ability of viral spill-over from animals to cause severe disease in humans.
The patient studied was a 41-year-old man with no history of hepatitis, tuberculosis or diabetes. He was admitted to and hospitalized in the Central Hospital of Wuhan on 26 December 2019, 6 days after the onset of disease. The patient reported fever, chest tightness, unproductive cough, pain and weakness for 1 week on presentation ( Table 1). Physical examination of cardiovascular, abdominal and neurological characteristics was that these were normal. Mild lymphopoenia ( defined as less than 9 × 105 cells per ml) was observed, but white blood cell and blood platelet counts were normal in a complete blood count test. Elevated levels of C-reactive protein ( 41.4 mg l−1 of blood; reference range, 0–6 mg l−1) were observed and the levels of aspartate aminotransferase, lactic dehydrogenase and creatine kinase were slightly elevated in blood chemistry tests. The patient had mild hypoxaemia with oxygen levels of 67 mm Hg as determined by an arterial blood gas test. On the first day of admission ( day 6 after the onset of disease), chest radiographs were abnormal with air-space shadowing such as ground-glass opacities, focal consolidation and patchy consolidation in both lungs ( Extended Data Fig. 1). Computed-tomography scans of the chest revealed bilateral focal consolidation, lobar consolidation and patchy consolidation, especially in the lower lung ( Extended Data Fig. 1a–d). A chest radiograph revealed a bilateral diffuse patchy and fuzzy shadow on day 5 after admission ( day 11 after the onset of disease) ( Extended Data Fig. 1e). Preliminary aetiological investigations excluded the presence of influenza virus, Chlamydia pneumoniae and Mycoplasma pneumoniae using commercial pathogen antigen-detection kits, and this was confirmed by PCR. Other common respiratory pathogens, including human adenoviruses, also tested negative by quantitative PCR ( qPCR) ( Extended Data Fig. 2). Although a combination of antibiotic, antiviral and glucocorticoid therapy was administered, the patient exhibited respiratory failure and was given high-flow non-invasive ventilation. The condition of the patient did not improve after 3 days of treatment and he was admitted to the intensive care unit. The patient was transferred to another hospital in Wuhan for further treatment 6 days after admission.
Epidemiological investigations by the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention revealed that the patient worked at a local indoor seafood market. Notably, in addition to fish and shellfish, a variety of live wild animals—including hedgehogs, badgers, snakes and birds ( turtledoves) —were available for sale in the market before the outbreak began, as well as animal carcasses and animal meat. No bats were available for sale. While the patient might have had contact with wild animals at the market, he recalled no exposure to live poultry.
To investigate the possible aetiological agents associated with this disease, we collected bronchoalveolar lavage fluid ( BALF) and performed deep meta-transcriptomic sequencing. The clinical specimen was handled in a biosafety level 3 laboratory at Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center. Total RNA was extracted from 200 μl of BALF and a meta-transcriptomic library was constructed for pair-end ( 150-bp reads) sequencing using an Illumina MiniSeq as previously described4,6,7,8. In total, we generated 56,565,928 sequence reads that were de novo-assembled and screened for potential aetiological agents. Of the 384,096 contigs assembled by Megahit9, the longest ( 30,474 nucleotides ( nt)) had a high abundance and was closely related to a bat SARS-like coronavirus ( CoV) isolate—bat SL-CoVZC45 ( GenBank accession number MG772933) —that had previously been sampled in China, with a nucleotide identity of 89.1% ( Supplementary Tables 1, 2). The genome sequence of this virus, as well as its termini, were determined and confirmed by reverse-transcription PCR ( RT–PCR) 10 and 5′/3′ rapid amplification of cDNA ends ( RACE), respectively. This virus strain was designated as WH-Human 1 coronavirus ( WHCV) ( and has also been referred to as ‘ 2019-nCoV’) and its whole genome sequence ( 29,903 nt) has been assigned GenBank accession number MN908947. Remapping the RNA-sequencing data to the complete genome of WHCV resulted in an assembly of 123,613 reads, providing 99.99% genome coverage at a mean depth of 6.04× ( range, 0.01–78.84×) ( Extended Data Fig. 3). The viral load in the BALF sample was estimated by qPCR to be 3.95 × 108 copies per ml ( Extended Data Fig. 4).
The viral genome organization of WHCV was determined by sequence alignment to two representative members of the genus Betacoronavirus: a coronavirus associated with humans ( SARS-CoV Tor2, GenBank accession number AY274119) and a coronavirus associated with bats ( bat SL-CoVZC45, GenBank accession number MG772933). The un-translational regions and open-reading frame ( ORF) of WHCV were mapped on the basis of this sequence alignment and ORF prediction. The WHCV viral genome was similar to these two coronaviruses ( Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 3). The order of genes ( 5′ to 3′) was as follows: replicase ORF1ab, spike ( S), envelope ( E), membrane ( M) and nucleocapsid ( N). WHCV has 5′ and 3′ terminal sequences that are typical of betacoronaviruses, with 265 nt at the 5′ terminal end and 229 nt at the 3′ terminal end. The predicted replicase ORF1ab gene of WHCV is 21,291 nt in length and contained 16 predicted non-structural proteins ( Supplementary Table 4), followed by ( at least) 13 downstream ORFs. Additionally, WHCV shares a highly conserved domain ( LLRKNGNKG: amino acids 122–130) in nsp1 with SARS-CoV. The predicted S, ORF3a, E, M and N genes of WHCV are 3,822, 828, 228, 669 and 1,260 nt in length, respectively. In addition to these ORF regions, which are shared by all members of the subgenus Sarbecovirus, WHCV is similar to SARS-CoV in that it carries a predicted ORF8 gene ( with a length of 366 nt) that is located between the M and N ORF genes. The functions of WHCV ORFs were predicted on the basis of those of known coronaviruses and are described in Supplementary Table 5. In a manner similar to SARS-CoV Tor2, a leader transcription regulatory sequence ( TRS) and nine putative body TRSs could be readily identified upstream of the 5′ end of the ORF in WHCV, and the putative conserved TRS core sequence appeared in two forms—ACGAAC or CUAAAC ( Supplementary Table 6).
The organization of genes for WHCV, bat SL-CoVZC45 and SARS-CoV Tor2.
To determine the evolutionary relationships between WHCV and previously identified coronaviruses, we estimated phylogenetic trees on the basis of the nucleotide sequences of the whole-genome sequence, the non-structural protein genes ORF1a and ORF1b, and the main structural proteins encoded by the S, E, M and N genes ( Fig. 2 and Extended Data Fig. 5). In all phylogenies, WHCV clustered with members of the subgenus Sarbecovirus, including the SARS-CoV that was responsible for the global SARS pandemic1,2 of 2002–2003, as well as a number of SARS-like coronaviruses that have been obtained from bats5,11,12,13. However, WHCV changed topological position within the subgenus Sarbecovirus depending on which gene was used, which suggests that recombination has occurred in this group of viruses in the past ( Fig. 2 and Extended Data Fig. 5). Specifically, in the S gene tree ( Extended Data Fig. 5), WHCV was most closely related to the bat coronavirus SL-CoVZC45 with 82.3% amino acid identity ( and around 77.2% amino acid identity to SARS-CoV; Supplementary Table 3) whereas in the ORF1b phylogeny, WHCV fell in a basal position within the subgenus Sarbecovirus ( Fig. 2). This topological division, which probably reflects recombination among the bat sarbecoviruses, was also observed in the phylogenetic trees estimated for conserved domains in the replicase polyprotein pp1ab ( Extended Data Fig. 6).
a, Phylogenetic trees of ORF1a. b, Phylogenetic trees of ORF1b. c, Phylogenetic trees of E. d, Phylogenetic trees of M. EriCoV, Erinaceus coronavirus. Numbers ( > 70) above or below the branches indicate percentage bootstrap values for the associated nodes. The trees were mid-point rooted for clarity only. The scale bar represents the number of substitutions per site.
To better understand the potential of WHCV to infect humans, the receptor-binding domain ( RBD) of its spike protein was compared with those of SARS-CoVs and bat SARS-like CoVs. The RBD sequences of WHCV were more closely related to those of SARS-CoVs ( 73.8–74.9% amino acid identity) and SARS-like CoVs, including strains Rs4874, Rs7327 and Rs4231 ( 75.9–76.9% amino acid identity), that are able to use the human ACE2 receptor for cell entry11 ( Supplementary Table 7). In addition, the RBD of the spike protein from WHCV was only one amino acid longer than the RBD of the spike protein from SARS-CoV ( Extended Data Fig. 7a). By contrast, other bat SARS-like CoVs—including the Rp3 strain that can not bind to human ACE214—had amino acid deletions at positions 433–437 and 460–472 compared with the sequence in SARS-CoVs ( Extended Data Fig. 7a). The previously determined15 crystal structure of the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-CoV complexed with human ACE2 ( Protein Data Bank ( PDB) 2AJF) revealed that regions 433–437 and 460–472 directly interact with human ACE2 and hence may be important in determining species specificity ( Extended Data Fig. 7b). We predicted the three-dimensional protein structures of the RBD domains of the spike protein of WHCV, Rs4874 and Rp3 by protein homology modelling using the SWISS-MODEL server and compared them to the crystal structure of RBD domain of the spike protein of SARS-CoV ( PDB 2GHV) ( Extended Data Fig. 7c–f). In accordance with the sequence alignment, the predicted protein structures of the RBD domains of WHCV and Rs4874 were closely related to that of SARS-CoV and different from the predicted structure of the RBD domain from Rp3. In addition, the N terminus of the spike protein of WHCV is more similar to that of SARS-CoV than other human coronaviruses ( HKU1 and OC43) ( Extended Data Fig. 8) that can bind to sialic acid16. In summary, the high similarities of the amino acid sequences and predicted protein structures of the RBD domains of WHCV and SARS-CoV suggest that WHCV may efficiently use human ACE2 as a receptor for cellular entry, which could potentially facilitate human-to-human transmission11,17,18.
To further characterize the putative recombination events in the evolutionary history of the sarbecoviruses, the whole-genome sequence of WHCV and four representative coronaviruses—bat SARS-like CoV Rp3, CoVZC45, CoVZXC21 and SARS-CoV Tor2—were analysed using the Recombination Detection Program v.4 ( RDP4) 19. Although the similarity plots suggested that possible recombination events had occurred between WHCV and SARS-CoVs or SARS-like CoVs ( Extended Data Fig. 9), there was no significant evidence for recombination across the genome as a whole. However, some evidence for past recombination was detected in the S gene of WHCV, SARS-CoV and bat SARS-like CoVs ( WIV1 and RsSHC014) ( P < 3.147 × 10−3 to P < 9.198 × 10−9), for which the similarity plots suggested the presence of recombination breakpoints at nucleotides 1,029 and 1,652, which separate the S gene of WHCV into three regions ( Fig. 3). In phylogenies of the nucleotide fragments from 1 to 1,029 and from 1,652 to the end of the sequence, WHCV was most closely related to bat SL-CoVZC45 and bat SL-CoVZXC21, whereas in the region of nucleotides 1,030 to 1,651 ( the RBD region) WHCV grouped with SARS-CoV and bat SARS-like CoVs ( WIV1 and RsSHC014) that are capable of direct human transmission17,20. Despite these recombination events, which seem relatively common among sarbecoviruses, there is no evidence that recombination has facilitated the emergence of WHCV.
a, The sequence similarity plot reveals two putative recombination breakpoints ( black dashed lines), with their locations indicated at the bottom. The plot shows similarity comparisons of the S gene of WHCV ( query) compared with the sequences of SARS-CoV Tor2 and bat SARS-like CoVs WIV1, Rf1 and CoVZC45. b, Phylogenies of the major parental region ( 1–1,028 and 1,653–3,804) and minor parental region ( 1,029–1,652). Phylogenies were estimated using a maximum likelihood method and were mid-point rooted for clarity only. Numbers above or below the branches indicate percentage bootstrap values. The scale bar represents the number of substitutions per site.
Coronaviruses are associated with a number of infectious disease outbreaks in humans, including SARS in 2002–2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS) in 20121,21. Four other coronaviruses—human coronaviruses HKU1, OC43, NL63 and 229E—are also associated with respiratory disease22,23,24,25. Although SARS-like coronaviruses have been widely identified in mammals including bats since 2005 in China10,26,27,28, the exact origin of human-infected coronaviruses remains unclear. Here we describe a new coronavirus—WHCV—in the BALF from a patient who experienced severe respiratory disease in Wuhan, China. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that WHCV is a member of the genus Betacoronavirus ( subgenus Sarbecovirus) that has some genomic and phylogenetic similarities to SARS-CoV1, particularly in the RBD of the spike protein. These genomic and clinical similarities to SARS, as well as its high abundance in clinical samples, provides evidence for an association between WHCV and the ongoing outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan and across the world. Although the isolation of the virus from only a single patient is not sufficient to conclude that it caused these respiratory symptoms, our findings have been independently corroborated in further patients in a separate study29.
The identification of multiple SARS-like CoVs in bats have led to the idea that these animals act as hosts of a natural reservoir of these viruses22,23. Although SARS-like viruses have been identified widely in bats in China, viruses identical to SARS-CoV have not yet been documented. Notably, WHCV is most closely related to bat coronaviruses, and shows 100% amino acid similarity to bat SL-CoVZC45 in the nsp7 and E proteins ( Supplementary Table 3). Thus, these data suggest that bats are a possible host for the viral reservoir of WHCV. However, as a variety of animal species were for sale in the market when the disease was first reported, further studies are needed to determine the natural reservoir and any intermediate hosts of WHCV.
Note added in proof: Since this paper was accepted, the ICTV has designated the virus as SARS-CoV-230; in addition, the WHO has released the official name of the disease caused by this virus, which is COVID-1931.
No statistical methods were used to predetermine sample size. The experiments were not randomized and the investigators were not blinded to allocation during experiments and outcome assessment.
A patient presenting with acute onset of fever ( temperature over 37.5 °C), cough and chest tightness, who was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan, in Wuhan, China, was considered to be a suspected case. During admission, BALF was collected and stored at −80 °C until further processing. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were retrieved from the clinical records of the patient. The study was reviewed and approved by the ethics committee of the National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Signed written informed consent was obtained from the patient.
Total RNA was extracted from the BALF sample using the RNeasy Plus Universal Mini kit ( Qiagen) following the manufacturer’ s instructions. The quantity and quality of the RNA solution was assessed using a Qbit machine and an Agilent 2100 Bioanalyzer ( Agilent Technologies) before library construction and sequencing. An RNA library was then constructed using the SMARTer Stranded Total RNA-Seq kit v.2 ( TaKaRa). Ribosomal RNA depletion was performed during library construction following the manufacturer’ s instructions. Paired-end ( 150-bp reads) sequencing of the RNA library was performed on the MiniSeq platform ( Illumina). Library preparation and sequencing were carried out at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Sequencing reads were first adaptor and quality trimmed using the Trimmomatic program32. The remaining 56,565,928 reads were assembled de novo using both Megahit ( v.1.1.3) 9 and Trinity ( v.2.5.1) 33 with default parameter settings. Megahit generated a total of 384,096 assembled contigs ( size range of 200–30,474 nt), whereas Trinity generated 1,329,960 contigs with a size range of 201–11,760 nt. All of these assembled contigs were compared ( using BLASTn and Diamond BLASTx) against the entire non-redundant ( nr) nucleotide and protein databases, with e values set to 1 × 10−10 and 1 × 10−5, respectively. To identify possible aetiological agents present in the sequencing data, the abundance of the assembled contigs was first evaluated as the expected counts using the RSEM program34 implemented in Trinity. Non-human reads ( 23,712,657 reads), generated by filtering host reads using the human genome ( human release 32, GRCh38.p13, downloaded from Gencode) by Bowtie235, were used for the RSEM abundance assessment.
As the longest contigs generated by Megahit ( 30,474 nt) and Trinity ( 11,760 nt) both showed high similarity to the bat SARS-like coronavirus isolate bat SL-CoVZC45 and were found at a high abundance ( Supplementary Tables 1, 2), the longer sequence ( 30,474 nt) —which covered almost the whole virus genome—was used for primer design for PCR confirmation and determination of the genome termini. Primers used for PCR, qPCR and RACE experiments are listed in Supplementary Table 8. The PCR assay was conducted as previously described10 and the complete genome termini was determined using the Takara SMARTer RACE 5′/3′ kit ( TaKaRa) following the manufacturer’ s instructions. Subsequently, the genome coverage and sequencing depth were determined by remapping all of the adaptor- and quality-trimmed reads to the whole genome of WHCV using Bowtie235 and Samtools36.
The viral loads of WHCV in BALF were determined by quantitative real-time RT–PCR using the Takara One Step PrimeScript RT–PCR kit ( Takara RR064A) following the manufacturer’ s instructions. Real-time RT–PCR was performed using 2.5 μl RNA with 8 pmol of each primer and 4 pmol probe under the following conditions: reverse transcription at 42 °C for 10 min, 95 °C for 1 min, followed by 40 cycles of 95 °C for 15 s and 60 °C for 1 min. The reactions were performed and detected by ABI 7500 Real-Time PCR Systems. The PCR product covering the Taqman primers and probe region was cloned into pLB vector using the Lethal Based Simple Fast Cloning Kit ( TianGen) as standards for quantitative viral load test.
For the newly identified virus genome, the potential ORFs were predicted and annotated using the conserved signatures of the cleavage sites recognized by coronavirus proteinases, and were processed in the Lasergene software package ( v.7.1, DNAstar). The viral genes were aligned using the L-INS-i algorithm implemented in MAFFT ( v.7.407) 37.
Phylogenetic analyses were then performed using the nucleotide sequences of various CoV gene datasets: ( 1) whole genome, ( 2) ORF1a, ( 3) ORF1b, ( 4) nsp5 ( 3CLpro), ( 5) RdRp ( nsp12), ( 6) nsp13 ( Hel), ( 7) nsp14 ( ExoN), ( 8) nsp15 ( NendoU), ( 9) nsp16 ( O-MT), ( 10) spike ( S) and ( 11) nucleocapsid ( N). Phylogenetic trees were inferred using the maximum likelihood method implemented in the PhyML program ( v.3.0) 38, using the generalized time reversible substitution model and subtree pruning and regrafting branch swapping. Bootstrap support values were calculated from 1,000 pseudo-replicate trees. The best-fitting model of nucleotide substitution was determined using MEGA ( v.5) 39. Amino acid identities among sequences were calculated using the MegAlign program implemented in the Lasergene software package ( v.7.1, DNAstar).
Potential recombination events in the history of the sarbecoviruses were assessed using both the RDP419 and Simplot ( v.3.5.1) 40. The RDP4 analysis was conducted based on the complete genome ( nucleotide) sequence, using RDP, GENECONV, BootScan, maximum chi square, Chimera, SISCAN and 3SEQ methods. Putative recombination events were identified with a Bonferroni corrected P-value cut-off of 0.01. Similarity plots were inferred using Simplot to further characterize potential recombination events, including the location of possible breakpoints.
An amino acid sequence alignment of RBD sequences from WHCV, SARS-CoVs and bat SARS-like CoVs was performed using MUSCLE41. The predicted protein structures of the RBD of the spike protein were estimated based on target–template alignment using ProMod3 on SWISS-MODEL server ( https: //swissmodel.expasy.org/). The sequences of the RBD domains spike of WHCV, Rs4874 and Rp3 were searched by BLAST against the primary amino acid sequence contained in the SWISS-MODEL template library ( last update, 9 January 2020; last included PDB release, 3 January 2020). Models were built based on the target–template alignment using ProMod3. The global and per-residue model quality was assessed using the QMEAN scoring function42. The PDB files of the predicted protein structures were displayed and compared with the crystal structures of the spike RBD of SARS-CoV ( PDB 2GHV) 43 and the crystal of structure of the spike RBD of SARS-CoV complexed with human ACE2 ( PDB 2AJF) 15.
Further information on research design is available in the Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this paper.
Sequence reads generated in this study are available from the NCBI Sequence Read Archive ( SRA) database under BioProject accession number PRJNA603194. The complete genome sequence of WHCV has been deposited in GenBank under accession number MN908947.
A Correction to this paper has been published: https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2202-3
Drosten, C. et al. Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N. Engl. J. Med. 348, 1967–1976 ( 2003).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Wolfe, N. D., Dunavan, C. P. & Diamond, J. Origins of major human infectious diseases. Nature 447, 279–283 ( 2007).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Ventura, C. V., Maia, M., Bravo-Filho, V., Góis, A. L. & Belfort, R. Jr. Zika virus in Brazil and macular atrophy in a child with microcephaly. Lancet 387, 228 ( 2016).
Article Google Scholar
Shi, M. et al. Redefining the invertebrate RNA virosphere. Nature 540, 539–543 ( 2016).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Hu, D. et al. Genomic characterization and infectivity of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in Chinese bat. Emerg. Microbes Infect. 7, 1–10 ( 2018).
Article Google Scholar
Shi, M. et al. The evolutionary history of vertebrate RNA viruses. Nature 556, 197–202 ( 2018).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Yadav, P. D. et al. Nipah virus sequences from humans and bats during Nipah outbreak, Kerala, India, 2018. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 25, 1003–1006 ( 2019).
CAS Article Google Scholar
McMullan, L. K. et al. Characterisation of infectious Ebola virus from the ongoing outbreak to guide response activities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a phylogenetic and in vitro analysis. Lancet Infect. Dis. 19, 1023–1032 ( 2019).
Article Google Scholar
Li, D., Liu, C. M., Luo, R., Sadakane, K. & Lam, T. W. MEGAHIT: an ultra-fast single-node solution for large and complex metagenomics assembly via succinct de Bruijn graph. Bioinformatics 31, 1674–1676 ( 2015).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Wang, W. et al. Discovery, diversity and evolution of novel coronaviruses sampled from rodents in China. Virology 474, 19–27 ( 2015).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Hu, B. et al. Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus. PLoS Pathog. 13, e1006698 ( 2017).
Article Google Scholar
Lin, X.-D. et al. Extensive diversity of coronaviruses in bats from China. Virology 507, 1–10 ( 2017).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Xu, L. et al. Detection and characterization of diverse alpha- and betacoronaviruses from bats in China. Virol. Sin. 31, 69–77 ( 2016).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Ren, W. et al. Difference in receptor usage between severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS) coronavirus and SARS-like coronavirus of bat origin. J. Virol. 82, 1899–1907 ( 2008).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Li, F., Li, W., Farzan, M. & Harrison, S. C. Structure of SARS coronavirus spike receptor-binding domain complexed with receptor. Science 309, 1864–1868 ( 2005).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Hulswit, R. J. G. et al. Human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 bind to 9-O-acetylated sialic acids via a conserved receptor-binding site in spike protein domain A. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 2681–2690 ( 2019).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Ge, X. Y. et al. Isolation and characterization of a bat SARS-like coronavirus that uses the ACE2 receptor. Nature 503, 535–538 ( 2013).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Yang, X. L. et al. Isolation and characterization of a novel bat coronavirus closely related to the direct progenitor of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. J. Virol. 90, 3253–3256 ( 2016).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Martin, D. P. et al. RDP3: a flexible and fast computer program for analyzing recombination. Bioinformatics 26, 2462–2463 ( 2010).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Menachery, V. D. et al. A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. Nat. Med. 21, 1508–1513 ( 2015).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Bermingham, A. et al. Severe respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus, in a patient transferred to the United Kingdom from the Middle East, September 2012. Euro Surveill. 17, 20290 ( 2012).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Hamre, D. & Procknow, J. J. A new virus isolated from the human respiratory tract. Proc. Soc. Exp. Biol. Med. 121, 190–193 ( 1966).
CAS Article Google Scholar
McIntosh, K., Becker, W. B. & Chanock, R. M. Growth in suckling-mouse brain of “ IBV-like ” viruses from patients with upper respiratory tract disease. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 58, 2268–2273 ( 1967).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
van der Hoek, L. et al. Identification of a new human coronavirus. Nat. Med. 10, 368–373 ( 2004).
Article Google Scholar
Woo, P. C. et al. Characterization and complete genome sequence of a novel coronavirus, coronavirus HKU1, from patients with pneumonia. J. Virol. 79, 884–895 ( 2005).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Li, W. et al. Bats are natural reservoirs of SARS-like coronaviruses. Science 310, 676–679 ( 2005).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Lau, S. K. et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-like virus in Chinese horseshoe bats. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 14040–14045 ( 2005).
ADS CAS Article Google Scholar
Wang, W. et al. Discovery of a highly divergent coronavirus in the Asian house shrew from China illuminates the origin of the Alphacoronaviruses. J. Virol. 91, e00764-17 ( 2017).
CAS PubMed PubMed Central Google Scholar
Zhou, P. et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7 ( 2020).
Gorbalenya, A. E. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus — the species and its viruses, a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. Preprint at bioRxiv https: //doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.07.93786 ( 2020).
WHO. WHO Director-General’ s remarks at the media briefing on 2019-nCoV on 11 February 2020. https: //www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-2019-ncov-on-11-february-2020 ( WHO, 11 February 2020).
Bolger, A. M., Lohse, M. & Usadel, B. Trimmomatic: a flexible trimmer for Illumina sequence data. Bioinformatics 30, 2114–2120 ( 2014).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Grabherr, M. G. et al. Full-length transcriptome assembly from RNA-seq data without a reference genome. Nat. Biotechnol. 29, 644–652 ( 2011).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Li, B., Ruotti, V., Stewart, R. M., Thomson, J. A. & Dewey, C. N. RNA-seq gene expression estimation with read mapping uncertainty. Bioinformatics 26, 493–500 ( 2010).
Article Google Scholar
Langmead, B. & Salzberg, S. L. Fast gapped-read alignment with Bowtie 2. Nat. Methods 9, 357–359 ( 2012).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Li, H. et al. The Sequence Alignment/Map format and SAMtools. Bioinformatics 25, 2078–2079 ( 2009).
Article Google Scholar
Katoh, K. & Standley, D. M. MAFFT multiple sequence alignment software version 7: improvements in performance and usability. Mol. Biol. Evol. 30, 772–780 ( 2013).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Guindon, S. et al. New algorithms and methods to estimate maximum-likelihood phylogenies: assessing the performance of PhyML 3.0. Syst. Biol. 59, 307–321 ( 2010).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Tamura, K. et al. MEGA5: molecular evolutionary genetics analysis using maximum likelihood, evolutionary distance, and maximum parsimony methods. Mol. Biol. Evol. 28, 2731–2739 ( 2011).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Lole, K. S. et al. Full-length human immunodeficiency virus type 1 genomes from subtype C-infected seroconverters in India, with evidence of intersubtype recombination. J. Virol. 73, 152–160 ( 1999).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Edgar, R. C. MUSCLE: multiple sequence alignment with high accuracy and high throughput. Nucleic Acids Res. 32, 1792–1797 ( 2004).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Waterhouse, A. et al. SWISS-MODEL: homology modelling of protein structures and complexes. Nucleic Acids Res. 46, W296–W303 ( 2018).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Hwang, W. C. et al. Structural basis of neutralization by a human anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome spike protein antibody, 80R. J. Biol. Chem. 281, 34610–34616 ( 2006).
CAS Article Google Scholar
Download references
This study was supported by the Special National Project on investigation of basic resources of China ( grant 2019FY101500) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( grants 81861138003 and 31930001). E.C.H. is supported by an ARC Australian Laureate Fellowship ( FL170100022).
These authors contributed equally: Fan Wu, Su Zhao, Bin Yu, Yan-Mei Chen, Wen Wang, Zhi-Gang Song, Yi Hu
Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Fan Wu, Yan-Mei Chen, Zhi-Gang Song, Yuan-Yuan Pei, Yu-Ling Zhang, Fa-Hui Dai, Yi Liu, Qi-Min Wang, Jiao-Jiao Zheng, Lin Xu, Edward C. Holmes & Yong-Zhen Zhang
Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Su Zhao, Yi Hu, Zhao-Wu Tao & Ming-Li Yuan
Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
Bin Yu & Jun-Hua Tian
Department of Zoonosis, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
Wen Wang & Yong-Zhen Zhang
Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Edward C. Holmes
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Yong-Zhen Zhang
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar
Y.-Z.Z. conceived and designed the study. S.Z., Y.H., Z.-W.T. and M.-L.Y. performed the clinical work and sample collection. B.Y. and J.-H.T. performed the epidemiological investigation and sample collection. F.W., Z.-G.S., L.X., Y.-Y.P., Y.-L.Z., F.-H.D., Y.L., J.-J.Z. and Q.-M.W. performed the experiments. Y.-M.C., W.W., F.W., E.C.H. and Y.-Z.Z. analysed the data. Y.-Z.Z., E.C.H. and F.W. wrote the paper with input from all authors. Y.-Z.Z. led the study.
Correspondence to Yong-Zhen Zhang.
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information Nature thanks Nicholas Loman and the other, anonymous, reviewer ( s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Publisher’ s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
a–d, Computed-tomography scans of the chest were obtained on the day of admission ( day 6 after the onset of disease). Bilateral focal consolidation, lobar consolidation and patchy consolidation were clearly observed, especially in the lower lung. e, A chest radiograph was obtained on day 5 after admission ( day 11 after the onset of disease). Bilateral diffuse patchy and fuzzy shadows were observed.
a–e, The BALF sample was tested for the presence of influenza A virus ( a), the Victoria lineage of influenza B viruses ( b), the Yamagata lineage of influenza B viruses ( c), human adenovirus ( d) and Chlamydia pneumoniae ( e). Sample 1 was the BALF sample of the patient, water was used as a negative ( NEG) control and positive ( POS) control samples included plasmids covering the Taqman primers and probe regions of influenza A, the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B viruses, human adenovirus and Chlamydia pneumoniae.
The histograms show the coverage depth per base of the WHCV genome. The mean sequencing depth of the WHCV genome was 604.21 nt.
a, Specificity evaluation of the WHCV primers. Test samples comprised clinical samples that were positive for at least one of the following viruses: influenza A virus ( 09H1N1 and H3N2), influenza B virus, human adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus type 1–4, human bocavirus, human metapneumovirus, coronavirus OC43, coronavirus NL63, coronavirus 229E and coronavirus HKU1. Only the standard plasmid of WHCV ( WHCV 15,704–16,846 bp in a pLB vector) led to positive amplification ( brown curve). b, Amplification curve of the DNA standard for WHCV. From left to right, the DNA concentrations were 1.8 × 108, 1.8 × 107, 1.8 × 106, 1.8 × 105, 1.8 × 104 and 1.8 × 103. c, Linear fitted curve of Ct values to concentrations of the WHCV DNA standard. d, Quantification of WHCV in the BALF sample by real-time RT–PCR. The WHCV DNA standard was used as positive control ( POS), water ( NEG) and blank were used as negative controls. The amplification curve of the BALF sample is shown in green.
Numbers ( > 70) above or below the branches indicate percentage bootstrap values. The trees were mid-point rooted for clarity only. The scale bar represents the number of substitutions per site.
Numbers ( > 70) above or below the branches indicate percentage bootstrap values. The trees were mid-point rooted for clarity only. The scale bar represents the number of substitutions per site.
a, Amino acid sequence alignments of RBD sequences of SARS-like CoVs. Three bat SARS-like CoVs—which could efficiently use the human ACE2 as receptor—had an RBD sequence of similar size to SARS-CoV. WHCV contains a single Val470 insertion. The key amino acid residues involved in the interaction with human ACE2 are marked by orange squares. By contrast, five bat SARS-like CoVs, including Rp3, which has previously been found not to bind to ACE214—had amino acid deletions in two motifs ( amino acids 433–437 and 460–472, highlighted by red boxes) compared with those of SARS-CoV.11 b, The two motifs ( amino acids 433–437 and 460–472) are shown in red for the crystal structure of the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-CoV in complex with the human ACE2 receptor ( PDB 2AJF). Human ACE2 is shown in blue and the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-CoV is shown in green. Important residues in human ACE2 that interact with the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-CoV are marked. c, Predicted protein structure of the RBD of the spike protein of WHCV based on target–template alignment using ProMod3 on the SWISS-MODEL server. d, Predicted structure of the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-like CoV Rs4874. e, Predicted structure of the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-like CoV Rp3. f, Crystal structure of the RBD of the spike protein of SARS-CoV ( green) ( PDB 2GHV). Motifs that resemble amino acids 433–437 and 460–472 of the spike protein of SARS-CoV are shown in red.
Amino acid sequence comparison of the N-terminal domain of the spike protein of WHCV, bovine coronavirus ( BCoV), mouse hepatitis virus ( MHV) and human coronaviruses ( HCoV OC43 and HKU1) that can bind to sialic acid and the SARS-CoVs that can not ( SZ3, WH20, BJ0 and Tor2). The key residues16 for sialic acid binding on BCoV, MHV, and HCoV OC43 and HKU1 are highlighted by orange squares.
Recombination events in WHCV. The sequence similarity plot of WHCV, SARS-like CoVs and bat SARS-like CoVs reveals putative recombination events.
This file contains Supplementary Tables 1-8.
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author ( s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’ s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’ s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http: //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Reprints and Permissions
Wu, F., Zhao, S., Yu, B. et al. A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature 579, 265–269 ( 2020). https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3
Download citation
Received: 07 January 2020
Accepted: 28 January 2020
Published: 03 February 2020
Issue Date: 12 March 2020
DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3
Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative
World Journal of Emergency Surgery ( 2021) | general |
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, Hebei Province | Wuhan Tianhe International Airport was opened in April 1995. The airport, which is situated 26km north of Wuhan City, serves the Hubei Province and has the distinction of being the busiest airport in central China.
Start Year
1995 ( first opened), improvements started in 2005
Project Type
Airport improvement / expansion
Location
Hubei Province, Wuhan City, China
Estimated Investment
¥3.37bn ( $ 421.5m)
Expand
Start Year
1995 ( first opened), improvements started in 2005
Project Type
Airport improvement / expansion
Location
Hubei Province, Wuhan City, China
Estimated Investment
¥3.37bn ( $ 421.5m)
Construction Started
February 2005
Completed
T2: 2008 and T3: 2017
Sponsors
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Co, Provincial Government, CAAC
Lead Contractors, Designers, Architects and Engineers
CPG Consultants
Financing
Provincial Government, CAAC, Morgan Stanley Investment Bank
Passengers
24.5 million ( 2018)
Collapse
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport was opened in April 1995. The airport, which is situated 26km north of Wuhan City, serves the Hubei Province. It is the busiest airport in central China.
The airport handled 24.5 million passengers during 2018 and is the country’ s fourth hub after Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
It has two terminals, namely Terminal 2 and Terminal 3. The airport is served by two concrete paved runways. Terminal 2 is currently being renovated and will be reopened when Terminal 3 exceeds its passenger handling capacity.
The public airport is operated by Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Co., which is responsible to the provincial assembly and the national government. The airport offers flights to at least 120 domestic and international destinations.
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport was temporarily closed for the majority of air traffic following an outbreak of the deadly Coronavirus in January 2020.
CAAC put forward policies to support the development of Wuhan airport as a new aviation hub in Central China.
The major developments at the airport included the construction of the second and third terminals as well as a new control tower and a second runway to accommodate the new A380 superjumbo and increasing passenger figures.
The construction began on the second terminal in February 2005 and the terminal was opened in April 2008. It has 64 aircraft parking bays ensuring 122,000 aircraft movements a year.
The facility can handle 7,500 passengers an hour during peak periods. The terminal has a design capacity of 13 million passengers a year. It also has an additional cargo capacity of 320,000t a year.
The expansion project also included a 38,000m² car park, a 250,000m² apron and a 20,000m² cargo warehouse.
The construction on Terminal 3 began in June 2013 and the terminal was opened to the passengers in August 2017.
The expanded airport became an integrated transportation hub with a high-speed passenger rail link and subway system connected to the airport.
Terminal 3 has an innovative design that resembles a wing structure. Its curved ceiling represents curling planes, mimicking the blades of a jet engine.
The four-story terminal handles both domestic and international flights. It also serves flights to the special administrative regions of Macau and Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The facility has the capacity to handle 35 million passengers a year.
The first level of the terminal features a passenger distribution centre, while the second level accommodates domestic and international arrivals halls and a baggage claim area. The domestic and international departures halls are located in the third and fourth levels respectively.
The T2 building was based on the competition-winning design of CPG Consultants, and consists of three primary levels with level 1 for arrival and level 2 for departure with an elevated roadway to serve level 2.
The main terminal building frontage features a large cantilever canopy that provides both arrival and departure halls with 300m of double kerbside parking area one above the other. The roof is a tied-arch system with three main arches, each around 45m apart. Each intermediate arch is tilted towards the kerbside to serve as a seismic design.
There are 20 contact stands with passenger aero-bridges and four remote stands to accommodate commercial aircraft of code C, D and E types ( ICAO designation). There are two pier concourses that extend beyond the terminal building to provide boarding for up to 13 million passengers a year.
The main check-in hall is outfitted with 80 counters, each having a direct feed to the baggage conveyor system. There are 18 positions for a central passenger security screening system and ten luggage claim carousels. Over 12% of the floor area has been given over to retail concessions ( shops, restaurants and bars).
Other facilities at Wuhan Tianhe Airport include two commercially important persons ( CIP) lounges, several private airline lounges and an arrivals lounge and business centres.
CPG Consultants provided a range of services for the project including master planning, architectural design, mechanical and electrical engineering, civil and structural engineering, quantity surveying and project management.
The CAAC provided ¥150m ( $ 18.8m) in funds to upgrade the security infrastructure at Wuhan airport and also other airports in Hubei province.
In addition, CAAC funded ¥50m ( $ 6.3m) to transform Wuhan into an alternative destination for the A380.
Si ATM provides products and services for air traffic management....
The Chengdu Tianfu international airport in Chengdu was inaugurated in June 2021. Located approximately 50km east of downtown Chengdu, it…
Frankfurt International Airport is Germany’ s main airport hub. It is owned and operated by public body Fraport. Deutsche Flugsicherung ( DFS) …
The main airport in Uganda, Entebbe International Airport, located roughly 40km from Uganda’ s capital city Kampala, is undergoing expansion in…
Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport is located in Qingdao city in the Shandong province of China. It is situated 39km away… | general |
Indonesia central bank intervenes to steady rupiah as virus fear unnerves markets | Bank Indonesia intervened in spot foreign currency trading as well as domestic non-deliverable forward and bond markets on Monday to stabilize the rupiah, an official said, as the currency fell 0.5% to the weakest since mid-January.
“ BI is making sure of rupiah’ s stability, ” Nanang Hendarsah, the central bank’ s head of monetary management, told Reuters by text message.
“ BI is boldly buying bonds in the secondary market and is offering DNDF ( domestic non-deliverable forwards) through 8 brokers, ” he said, adding that intervention was also done in a measured way in the spot FX market.
Hendarsah attributed the rupiah's IDR= fall in early trade to a drop in China's equities market, which plunged after reopening from a 10-day Lunar New Year holiday amid a rapidly spreading virus epidemic.
The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS and commodities markets in Shanghai slumped on Monday, on fears the coronavirus epidemic will hit demand in the world's second-largest economy. The death toll in China rose to 361 as of Sunday with the number of confirmed cases rising to more than 17,200.
The rupiah fell as much as 0.5% to 13,725 per dollar by 0442 GMT. So far this year, it has gained 1.1% helped by big inflows.
Indonesia is one of Asia’ s higher-yielding markets and has attracted heavy overseas inflows into its bond markets as investors sought better returns in a world of plunging interest rates.
Indonesia’ s benchmark 10-year bond yield ID10YT=RR jumped to 6.701%, from the previous session’ s close of 6.645%.
The stock market.JKSE fell 0.5% on Monday and is down 6.6% since mid-January, making it the second-worst performing in Southeast Asia after Manila so far this year.
BI intervened in bonds, DNDF and spot markets almost daily last week, according to a trader in Jakarta, but the central bank was seen focusing most of its intervention in the bond and DNDF markets.
Indonesia’ s one-month DNDF contracts IDR1MNDFOR=ID on Monday traded at 13,751 to the dollar, stronger than comparable offshore non-deliverable forwards at 13,840 IDR1MNDFOR=.
( GRAPHIC: Indonesia's central bank steps in to stabilize rupiah - here)
The interventions have helped keep the rupiah mostly stable in recent weeks, the trader said, but dollar liquidity in the spot market is tight.
“ BI prefers to do their intervention through DNDF now, but most of the offshore traders are seeking dollar in the spot market, which currently is a bit illiquid, ” the trader said.
BI sold DNDF contracts worth more than $ 380 million early on Monday, the trader said, adding to around $ 450 million sold on Friday.
Meanwhile, the central bank believes the pressure on the rupiah is temporary.
“ We believe the rupiah’ s weakness is temporary because fundamentally, the rupiah will be supported by a narrowing current account deficit, low and stable inflation and resilient growth, ” Hendarsah said.
Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Jacqueline Wong | business |
Inflation isn’ t coming and the Fed’ s job is about to get a lot harder, economist says | Like Samuel Beckett’ s unhappy characters, members of the Federal Reserve’ s policy committee are still waiting. Vladimir and Estragon expect their friend to come along any time; policymakers remain hopeful higher inflation will finally emerge, more than a decade into the economic expansion and after
numerous false starts
. But the Fed’ s efforts may prove just as futile as expecting resolution in
“ Waiting for Godot, ”
according to one analyst.
As Steve Blitz, chief economist for TS Lombard, argued in a recent research note, “ What the FOMC said in its statement about growth and inflation trends is what arrived in the Q4 GDP data. ”
While the headline number for fourth-quarter gross domestic product wasn’ t too bad —
2.1% annualized growth
— it’ s the details that matter, Blitz said. When imports and inventory, which are the factors most influenced by tariffs and tariff threats — and their removal — are stripped out, the economy probably only grew at about a 1.5% rate, he thinks.
“ That pace is, in fact, almost as low as the 1.4% rate set in Q4 2018 — the slowdown that, in turn, helped kick off the Fed’ s
mid-course correction
, ” Blitz wrote.
A slowing economy does not produce higher inflation. And policymakers know it’ s already too low, said strategists at TD Securities. “ Officials are now signaling that unchanged Fed policy in the year ahead is conditional on inflation ‘ returning to’ 2%, rather than being ‘ near’ 2%, ” they wrote. “ The slight change appears to have been intended to make clear that officials view the current trend in inflation as too low; the latest 12 month-change in core PCE prices is 1.6%. ”
On Friday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.646%
was yielding 1.53%, the lowest in several months.
But Blitz thinks policymakers won’ t take any steps to try to coax inflation higher — mostly because their hands are tied. The committee “ appears set to tough out any near term disinflationary data believing it is temporary and doing more now would run policy up against its new third bound, financial risk. ”
That rock-and-a-hard-place reality comes even as new unknowns spring up. The deadly coronavirus has prompted an
inversion of the yield curve
— that is, a situation in which
investors are demanding higher interest rates for short-term bonds
than those with longer durations.
“ If the curve stays inverted financial conditions will tighten — lending growth at small banks has yet to recover from the prior inversion, ” Blitz noted. “ There are reasons why the Fed worked to
resteepen the curve
. The risk now is that the virus’ impact on the curve remains in place and then weak Q1 growth inverts the curve further. The Fed today is set to wait to react to the undoing of its work last year. But if events do unfold such that the curve becomes more inverted and stays that way, by the time the Fed sees the data triggers to cut rates, the economy is probably already slipping into recession. ” | business |
Gilead’ s antiviral is encouraging as coronavirus candidate but isn’ t likely to provide long-term shareholder value | Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc. rallied in afternoon trading on Monday over investor excitement about a coronavirus treatment candidate.
Gilead
had said
Jan. 31 that it is working with Chinese authorities to test its investigational antiviral remdesivir as a treatment for coronavirus infections.
There are currently no approved treatments or vaccines for the novel virus, which was first identified in December in Wuhan, China. Since then, at least 361 people have died and 17,205 have been sickened.
Read:
Coronavirus update: 361 have died, there are now 11 cases in the U.S., and the case count has doubled SARS
The stock
GILD,
-1.25%
shot up as much as 8.7% to a seven-month high intraday, before
paring gains to be up 5.3%
in afternoon trading.
According to SVB Leerink’ s Geoffrey Porges, citing
Chinese news sources
, Gilead this weekend received approval from China’ s Food and Drug Administration to start a randomized, controlled clinical trial in Wuhan for 270 patients who have mild to moderate forms of pneumonia as a result of a coronavirus infection. The trial is expected to run through April.
He cautioned investors, however, not to expect remdesivir to be a big money maker for the company as a treatment for coronavirus over the longer term.
“
‘ Therapies of this nature are likely to provide a short-term financial boost, but unlikely to yield a significant impact on long-term shareholder value.’
”
— Geoffrey Porges, SVB Leerink
The drugmaker said while the therapy hasn’ t demonstrated to be safe or effective for any use, the company has data showing that remdesivir had “ in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models ” against Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), both of which are coronaviruses similar to 2019-nCoV.
See also:
Inovio’ s stock soars after receiving grant to develop coronavirus vaccine
“ Gilead has provided remdesivir for use in a small number of patients with 2019-nCoV for emergency treatment in the absence of any approved treatment options, ” Merdad Parsey, Gilead’ s chief medical officer, said in a statement.
A
paper
published Jan. 31 in the New England Journal of Medicine outlined a positive response to intravenous remdesivir recorded in a patient undergoing treatment for pneumonia stemming from a coronavirus infection. The 35-year-old man had recently returned to Snohomish County, Washington, from a trip to Wuhan. He was the first U.S. citizen to be diagnosed with the novel virus.
The finding is encouraging, Porges said, but requires caution for investors.
“ Despite the headline excitement associated with remdesivir, we believe it is unlikely to be a long-term value driver for Gilead’ s stock, ” SVB Leerink’ s Porges wrote in a research note. “ Therapies of this nature are likely to provide a short-term financial boost, but unlikely to yield a significant impact on long-term shareholder value. ”
Porges lays out the case why treatments like this are rarely lucrative. Treatment duration tends to be short; companies are “ likely ” to be limited in the price they can charge, given the public health benefits of such a medicine; and markets like China and Indonesia may simply produce their own versions of a specific therapy.
Read:
Why the coronavirus ‘ poses a more significant threat’ to markets, economy than past epidemics
The lack of treatment options for the coronavirus infections, which have been reported in 24 countries, has triggered a market rally in companies that say they develop vaccines, diagnostic tests, and antiviral therapies like remdesivir or AbbVie Inc.’ s
ABBV,
+0.85%
antiviral Aluvia. “ Some companies who are doing this are cash-hungry and struggling to survive, ” Brad Loncar, CEO of Loncar Investments, said last week in an interview. “ If you can get a pop in your stock price, you might be able to raise money and bring in some cash. ”
Gilead is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon. The stock has gained 3% over the last three months, compared with the S & P 500
SPX,
+0.39%
,
which is up 6%. | business |
Coronavirus May Cause More Pain for the Markets. How to Play a Turnaround. | Photograph by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
Though U.S. stock prices recovered on Monday, some strategists see more pain ahead as China’ s economy becomes increasingly shut off from the rest of the world. When to look for a buying opportunity? Here’ s what strategists are considering.
Overnight, Chinese stocks fell 8% in their worst decline since 2015 as the market caught up to the declines logged by others last week while they were closed for the Lunar New Year. But the
iShares MSCI China ETF
( ticker: MCHI) rose 1.7% to $ 61.14 and the
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets
ETF ( EEM) gained 1.2% to $ 42.62 on Monday morning after last week’ s losses while the S & P 500 gained 0.89% to 3254.27.
At last count, the deadly virus had infected more than 17,000 people in China. The World Health Organization has reported 146 cases in 23 countries outside China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping described the virus as a
major test of the country’ s governance.
While not without fault, China’ s government
has been faster and more extensive
than in its response to the SARS epidemic in 2003, with officials locking down millions, imposing severe travel restrictions and telling factories and businesses not to resume work before at least Feb. 10. The restrictions affecting 24 provinces and accounts for a majority of the country’ s GDP. Other countries also imposed travel restrictions and global companies were also halting operations.
Read Next:
Sports Gambling Will Be a Huge Opportunity. Bet on These Stocks.
For now, strategists and economists are
turning to the SARS epidemic
as a template even though China is much more bigger force in the global economy, and the travel restrictions—
imposed by countries ranging from the U.S. to the U. A. E.
—are likely to create wider disruptions globally. Coming on the heels of a thawing in U.S.-China trade tensions after the phase one trade deal and optimism China’ s economy was stabilizing, the virus has shut off the country in a much swifter way than the escalating US-China tensions.
“ In a novel manner, the coronavirus has ‘ Trumped,’ so to speak, the American tariffs. Who is going to open a business in China now, manufacture in China, or buy Chinese goods when you don’ t know who, or what, might be infected, ” wrote Mark Grant, chief global strategist for fixed income at B. Riley FBR in a note.
The virus also has brought a new type of tension to the fore, with
Chinese officials
bristling at U.S. restrictions and saying the U.S. spread fears when it moved to impose a travel ban and evacuate U.S. citizens. The fallout from the virus also raises questions on how China will meet its commitments under the phase-one trade deal as the virus has sapped demand.
For now, the focus is on the spread of the virus. Here’ s what strategists are looking for in terms of a buying opportunity:
Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management, has been cautious for three weeks—and expects another two to four weeks before he would reconsider that stance. While Chinese stocks have taken a beating, volatility in Europe and the U.S. aren’ t at stress levels and the growth stocks that have led the equities rally haven’ t come under significant pressure. The strategist expects the virus to ding China’ s GDP by one to 1.5 percentage points. While the U.S. isn’ t that dependent on exports to China, that’ s not true of growth companies that generate large chunks of business in China. “ A look at growth stocks strongly suggests this isn’ t priced in, ” Galy says.
If there’ s any good news, it is that Beijing has been quick to inject stimulus into the market, including targeted rate cuts in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus. That should alleviate the risk of a credit crisis. Central bankers in other emerging markets are also likely to ease monetary policy.
Still, Galy expects the virus from the fallout “ to propagate ” for two to four quarters in China, and to a lesser extent to other countries linked to Chinese demand, including Korea and Germany. Earnings warnings and data showing the hit will likely loom over the market, with Galy estimating another two to four weeks of equity markets moving sideway or coming under pressure.
Look for the first such earnings warnings possibly later this week when
Yum China Holdings
( YUMC) reports earnings. Yum, along with
Starbucks
( SBUX), which closed roughly half its nearly 4,300 stores in China, are among the restaurant companies with the largest China exposure, according to Cowen analysts. Luxury retailers may also feel some pain as travel in the region grounds to a halt.
In a note to clients, Cowen analyst Oliver Chen estimates that luxury retailers that get 6% to 20% of sales from China. He sees a possible earnings per share hit of low to mid-single digits, assuming the outbreak is contained by mid-2020.
When to look for a turnaround? Strategists are waiting for signs the virus has been contained, with new cases beginning to plateau. Gavekal Research’ s Tom Holland and Vincent Tsui can paint a picture for Chinese equities that is “ not all dark ” and plenty to like in emerging markets.
“ Once the rate of new infections peaks, investors will be looking at a relatively benign picture for Chinese and regional equities. Policy makers will have room to ease, valuations will be keen, and there are early signs of upturns in the regional electronics and trade cycles which will support earnings, ” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
While the virus may delay the turn in the autos and electronics cycle in Asia that were beginning to take hold but it won’ t cancel them, the analysts wrote.
One more factor that could support emerging markets: The U.S. dollar has strengthened as investors have sought safety but once the virus is contained, investors will turn their attention to the political risk ahead of elections, which should weaken the dollar and help Asian economies and currencies, the Gavekal analysts wrote.
Write to
Reshma Kapadia at
reshma.kapadia @ barrons.com | business |
‘ Gamechanger’ — billionaire investor just got a lot less bullish on the market | Just last month, billionaire hedge-fund manager David Tepper said
he loves “ riding a horse that’ s running, ”
in reference to his bullish stance on the stock market. He’ s “ long and will continue that way, ” he told CNBC at the time.
What a difference a potential pandemic makes.
“
‘ You have to be careful, because it may be a game changer. So you’ ve just got to be cautious.’
”
That’ s Tepper’ s updated view of the market, which he
just shared with CNBC
following Friday’ s hefty dose of selling.
He explained that the coronavirus has “ certainly ruined the environment ” for stocks that was in place a few weeks ago.
“ If you’ re a long-term person, you better not be leveraged, ” warned Tepper, who owns the Carolina Panthers and, according to CNBC, oversees about $ 14 billion in assets for Appaloosa Management.
Watch the interview:
As for
the latest on the coronavirus
, at least 361 people have died and another 17,205 have been sickened. There are reportedly 151 cases outside of China.
Watch:
Time-lapse shows hospital being built in China in 10 days
The market, however, is rebounding from Friday’ s retreat. At last check, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.43%
was up triple digits, while both the S & P 500 index
SPX,
+1.04%
and Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+0.66%
were also higher. | business |
Zoom Video Stock Soars as Coronavirus Travel Bans Boost Videoconferencing | Zoom Video Communications stock soared Monday.
Photograph by Kena Betancur/Getty Images
Zoom Video Communications stock was skyrocketing Monday as the still-expanding
coronavirus crisis
limits international travel and underlines the advantages of videoconferencing. Zoom’ s shares are up almost 15% in the session, and almost 25% over the last five trading days.
Zoom’ s shares ( ticker: ZM) have had a wild ride in the public market since their March 2019 debut at $ 36 a share. The stock surged above the $ 100 level in June, as investors bid up providers of cloud-based technology services, then slid back into the $ 60 range in the fall as investors became nervous about the valuation of Zoom and other cloud-based enterprise software providers. The recent rally has driven the stock’ s valuation back to lofty levels, above $ 88 in recent trading. Zoom now trades at about 28 times expected revenues for the January 2021 fiscal year.
With
many airlines suspending flights to China
, and the U.S. and other nations installing new restrictions on travel to and from China and other countries affected by the virus, some investors have obviously concluded that Zoom’ s business could be a beneficiary of the current situation.
In the company’ s October quarter, Zoom had 19% of revenues from the Asia Pacific region and 18% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In the company’ s latest 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Zoom reports that as of October 31 it had “ over 700 ” employees in China, most of those working on research and development. That’ s about 29% of Zoom’ s total head count of just over 2,400.
One factor in the rally in Zoom stock is that most of the company’ s primary rivals are either parts of much larger businesses—
Microsoft
’ s
( MSFT) Skype,
Cisco System
’ s
( CSCO) WebEx, and Google Hangouts, for instance—or privately held, like BlueJeans Network.
Zoom expects to report results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 on March 4. Zoom didn’ t immediately respond to a request for comment on the sharp rally in its shares.
Write to
Eric J. Savitz at
eric.savitz @ barrons.com | business |
Watch now: ETF Edge on coronavirus impact and WisdomTree-Siegel funds | CNBC's ETF Edge is dedicated to the fastest-growing trend in investing right now: ETFs. Every Monday, Bob Pisani will be joined by a panel of top market participants at the NYSE to offer educational and actionable advice to help you build your best portfolio. | business |
Gilead Might Have a Coronavirus Treatment. Its Stock Is Rising. | The company’ s experimental drug remdesivir will be tested in patients with coronavirus.
Photograph by David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
Did
Gilead
just stumble into the next Tamiflu?
Shares of the big biotech were up about 5% in trading on Monday after reports suggested that the company’ s experimental antiviral drug remdesivir could prove an effective treatment for the new coronavirus that emerged out of the Chinese city of Wuhan, and by Monday had sickened 17,485 people worldwide.
On Friday, The
Wall Street Journal
reported that Chinese
officials had reached an agreement with Gilead
( ticker: GILD) to test remdesivir in patients with coronavirus. The same day, the New England Journal of Medicine published
a case report on a man sickened with the coronavirus in Washington state
who was given remdesivir, and whose condition began to improve the following day.
“ Gilead seems to be now among the front-runners in developing a treatment for Coronavirus, ” Citi analyst Mohit Bansal wrote in a note out Monday.
Remdesivir isn’ t yet approved to treat any disease. According to Gilead,
animal testing has suggested it is active against MERS and SARS
, both of which are also coronaviruses. The drug has also been tested against Ebola.
In his note, Bansal wrote that if remdesivir proves effective, it could be made available quickly on an emergency basis, but that commercial availability could take longer. Bansal noted that, while it is hard conceptualize the commercial implications for Gilead, Roche
( RHHBY) sold $ 3.2 billion of the influenza treatment Tamiflu during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
“ We could see commercial opportunity for GILD in longer term as well since typically countries stockpile such drugs to safeguard against future outbreaks, ” Bansal wrote.
In the first weeks of the outbreak, much of the attention focused on efforts by minor players in the vaccine industry, including
Moderna
( MRNA) and
Johnson & Johnson
( JNJ), to develop prophylactic vaccines to protect against the illness. As
Barron’ s
reported
in a magazine feature this past weekend
, the lack of a business model for drugs and vaccines treating emerging viral threats has kept major players out of the space.
Yet as the virus has spread, and the seriousness of the threat has grown, the effort is expanding. GlaxoSmithKline
( GSK), one of the world’ s largest vaccine makers, announced Sunday night that it would allow a novel technology it developed for vaccine production
to be used by companies working on a coronavirus vaccine
. The company is collaborating with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the same international agency funding coronavirus vaccine efforts by Moderna and
Inovio
( INO.)
The GlaxoSmithKline technology effectively allows more doses of a given vaccine to be produced with a given amount of material.
“ Our adjuvant technology has previously been used successfully in the pandemic flu setting, ” GlaxoSmithKline’ s chief medical officer, Thomas Breuer, said in a statement. “ It enables using only small quantities of the vaccine antigen which allows the production of more doses of the vaccine—a crucial advantage in a pandemic. ”
Gilead shares were up 4.7% to $ 66.21 a little after 10 a.m. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average
was up 1.2%.
Write to
Josh Nathan-Kazis at
josh.nathan-kazis @ barrons.com | business |
U.S. Manufacturing Picked Up In January. Why It’ s Already Last Month’ s News. | Photograph by Jim Young/AFP via Getty Images
America’ s manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with factories running at the best rate since July. It’ s not likely to last.
The
Institute for Supply Management’ s manufacturing index jumped to 50.9
last month from an upwardly revised 47.8 in December. The bounce back above the 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction, was a surprise. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a reading of 48.5. When it was initially reported,
the December figure showed the sector had deteriorated to the worst level since 2009.
The guts of the report were solid, with production rising for the first time in six months as factories reported the highest level of new orders since May
Stocks were higher following the report, with the
S & P 500
and
Dow Jones Industrial Average
both up 1.2%. Industrial stocks such as
Caterpillar
( ticker: CAT) and
Honeywell International
( HON) got modest lifts. U.S. Treasuries, meanwhile, extended their selloff. The 10-year yield reached as high as 1.57% Monday morning.
“ Our business is starting 2020 stronger than we finished 2019, as we saw a dramatic downturn in orders over the last four months of 2019, ” said one ISM survey respondent, adding that orders are up but slightly behind where they were a year ago.
Economists point to the signing of the phase one U.S.-China trade deal for the manufacturing bounce in January. The improvement is welcome, but a heavy dose of investor caution is warranted. One reason in particular: Any disruptions to sales and supply chains from the coronavirus outbreak in China won’ t show up until February.
“ On net, a reading of 50.9 does not imply broad-based optimism for factory output, especially given the expected consequences of the coronavirus for global trade flows and aggregate demand, ” said BMO Capital Markets strategist Jon Hill.
ISM Chairman Tim Fiore said more than half of panelists surveyed monthly have some involvement in Asian trade, meaning they export goods there and/or import materials. Fiore said in an interview Monday that the February and March ISM readings will no doubt be affected by the virus. “ We will see it in all industry sectors, ” he said.
Despite the improvement, economists say a sustained manufacturing recovery is still some way off. The 25% tariffs on imported Chinese intermediate and capital goods remain in place, with no realistic hopes of a comprehensive trade deal this year, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. China will find it hard enough to meet its purchasing commitments under the phase one deal—even without the coronavirus, Shepherdson said.
At the same time,
Boeing’ s ongoing suspension of 737 MAX production will continue to ripple through its supply chain
.
Looking ahead, manufacturers will face significant challenges in 2020, say economists at Oxford Economics. They say the new idiosyncratic challenges, the coronavirus and the
Boeing
737 MAX production halt, “ will add to the pre-existing constraints of slower global growth, tariffs, persistent trade policy uncertainty and the strong US dollar to keep manufacturing activity lethargic this year. ”
Write to
Lisa Beilfuss at
lisa.beilfuss @ barrons.com | business |
Gilead's stock jumps 5% on coronavirus treatment plans | Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc.
GILD,
+0.87%
rallied 5% in premarket trading on Monday after the drugmaker said Friday that it is working with Chinese authorities to test its investigational antiviral remdesivir as a treatment for people with the new coronavirus. The pneumonia-causing virus was first identified in December in Wuhan, China. Since then, at least 361 people have died and more than 17,000 have been sickened, according to the latest figures from China's National Health Commission. The company said it is setting up a randomized, controlled trial in China as part of those plans, saying that remdesivir has shown `` in vitro and in vivo activity in animal models against the viral pathogens '' Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS), both of which are also coronaviruses. Gilead's stock is down about 10% over the past year, compared to the S & P 500
SPX,
+1.89%
,
which has gained 19%. | business |
Oil prices are on the brink of logging fastest slump to a bear market in about 4 years | Oil prices on Monday sank, extending a recent brutal slump and putting futures on the verge of a bear-market settlement, amid rapidly rising concerns that the coronavirus outbreak could wallop China’ s already sluggish economy and ripple through the rest of the globe.
Entry into a bear market is defined by a price drop of at least 20% from a recent high.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate
crude for March delivery
US: CLH20
was down 2.6% at $ 50.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leaving the U.S. benchmark contract more than 20% off its recent peak of $ 63.27 hit on Jan. 6.
A settlement below $ 50.62 would push it into a bear market, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
If WTI falls into a bear market, it would match the fastest such decline from a recent peak — 19 trading sessions, from Jan. 29 to Feb. 11, 2016.
Meanwhile, Brent
UK: BRNH20
,
the international benchmark, wasn’ t faring much better. The commodity was down 3.5% Monday afternoon and off by more than 20% from its recent high of $ 69.02, hit Sept.16, 2019. Brent crude will enter a bear market with a close below $ 55.22.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the coronavirus, which has sickened more than 17,500 people and killed more than 360, was a major test of the country’ s system of governance and vowed consequences for officials who shirk responsibility in tackling the crisis, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“ Anyone who fails to perform their duties will be punished according to discipline and law, ” Xi said, according the Journal, citing Xinhua News Agency.
The World Health Organization officials declared the viral outbreak a public-health emergency of international concern last week and the Trump administration’ s coronavirus task force said it is imposing measures to curb the influenza, including banning travel to China.
The illness has been likened to SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, which caused disruptions to markets in 2002-03. The virus reportedly originated in Wuhan City, China, but has spread rapidly since being first identified back in Dec. 31.
See:
What the 2003 SARS epidemic tells us about the potential impact of China’ s coronavirus on oil and metals
The spread of the virus came ahead of the Lunar New Year celebration, which begins on Jan. 25 and can last through to the Feb. 8 Lantern Festival. It is a significant travel period for the Chinese, raising the potential for further spread of the illness.
Read:
Coronavirus is less deadly than SARS — but that may explain why it’ s so contagious | business |
ISM says manufacturers grow for first time in 6 months | The numbers:
U.S. manufacturers grew their businesses in January for the first time in six month— but it remains to be seen if they can keep it up with the coronavirus disrupting the economy of China.
A closely followed survey by the
Institute for Supply Management rose to 50.9%
last month to 47.8%, topping the key 50% threshold for the first time since July. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast the index to come in at 48.5%.
Manufacturers suffered a letdown last year after the U.S. trade war with China and a global economic slowdown reduced exports and spurred companies to tighten the lease on the spending and investment.
Lately, there has been some signs of a rebound, but the spread of the coronavirus could dissipate any of the benefits from a temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China.
What happened:
A gauge measuring new orders jumped 4.4 points to 52%, also the highest reading since last July. Production turned positive again, though employment is still contracting in part due to a shortage of skilled labor.
The rebound wasn’ t very broad-based, either. Only eight of the 18 industries tracked by the ISM were expanding. Eight contracted again and two saw basically no change.
“ Business has picked up considerably. Many of our suppliers are working at or above full capacity, ” a senior executive at a computer company told ISM.
Yet another executive at a maker of machinery said “ the lack of faith in the economy seems to be why we can not sell capital projects. ”
Read:
Wage growth in the U.S. is no longer accelerating
Read:
These states had the lowest unemployment rates in 2019. What about swing states?
What they are saying? “ Most of the responses were likely filled out before the Wuhan virus began to have a substantial impact, ” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities. “ so it remains to be seen whether the U.S. manufacturing sector will take yet another China-related hit over the next few months. ”
Big picture:
Manufacturers have been heartened by easing trade tensions with China and the signing of a new trade deal with the Mexico and Canada that replaces the old North American Free Trade Agreement.
While trade disputes are still a hindrance, ISM survey panel chairman Timothy Fiore said, “ many respondents were positive for the first time in several months. ”
Yet the coast is far from clear, especially with the spread of the coronavirus causing nations to close themselves off to China. China is the world’ s largest manufacturing hub and the second biggest economy in the world.
The U.S. isn’ t immune. Some economists predict the damage from the virus could be significant in the first quarter, cutting as much as 0.5 percentage points off U.S. growth.
Read:
Coronavirus spreads damage to Wall Street. Could the U.S. economy be next?
Market reaction:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+2.04%
and S & P 500
SPX,
+1.89%
rose in early Monday trades. Stocks had been trading at record highs last month before the spread of the coronavirus in China sent them plunging. Lately they have been bouncing up and down.
The 10-year Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.757%
edged up to 1.56%. | business |
At least 361 people have died, 17,000 sickened by coronavirus | At least 361 people have died and 17,205 have been sickened by the novel coronavirus, according to the latest figures from China's National Health Commission. The World Health Organization said Sunday that outside of China there are 146 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in 23 countries, including one death, in the Philippines.
Media reports say
that there are now 11 confirmed cases in the U.S., there are eight confirmed cases, in California, Illinois, Massachusetts and Washington. | business |
Oil settles at a more than 1-year low as demand worries persist amid coronavirus outbreak | Oil futures ended sharply lower on Monday, with prices logging their lowest settlement in more than a year and marking their entry into a bear market, as worries about a slowdown in oil demand persist on the back of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in response to the demand concerns tied to coronavirus, Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC and its allies for a major, short-term cut in crude production, but that news has failed to provide support to prices.
An adjustment in output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies “ is to be expected with at least a 3 million [ barrel a day ] drop in consumption, ” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “ The big OPEC question is will they wait until their early March meeting for a decision. ”
West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery
US: CLH20
lost $ 1.45, or 2.8%, to settle at $ 50.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as low as $ 49.91. Prices for the front-month contract saw its lowest finish since January 2019.
The
settlement marked WTI’ s entry into a bear market
, down 20.8% from its recent high of $ 63.27 on Jan. 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
April Brent crude
UK: BRNJ20
fell $ 2.17, or 3.8%, to end at $ 54.45 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for its lowest settlement since Dec. 31, 2018. The settlement level also marked the global benchmark’ s entry into a bear market, down 21% from its recent high of $ 69.02 from Sept. 16.
The Journal
, citing officials from OPEC, said the Saudis, under one scenario, would lead a collective reduction of 500,000 barrels a day that would stand until the viral outbreak subsided. Another option would be a temporary cut of 1 million barrels a day by Saudi Arabia to provide the oil market with a jolt, the report said.
OPEC and its allies are set to hold a technical meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss possible action, the report said.
The OPEC website
still lists the next gatherings as March 5 for the special meeting of the OPEC Conference and March 6 for the OPEC+ meeting.
“ Oil prices will likely remain near the low $ 50s until we see further signs that China will see some return to normalcy with oil consumption. Any extended cuts delivered by OPEC+ will likely deliver rallies that will get sold into, ” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note. “ Oil prices will remain heavy until we see start to see some signs that the virus may be peaking. ”
Read
:
‘ Hurricane-force headwinds’ pull oil lower, but the losses aren’ t built to last
Also see:
Oil sector leads commodities lower in January, but gold shines are coronavirus shakes up the market
Bloomberg reported Sunday
, citing people with inside knowledge of China’ s energy industry, that Chinese oil demand has dropped by roughly 3 million barrels a day, or 20% of total consumption due to the virus’ impact on the national’ s economy.
In a tweet Monday
, independent energy expert Anas Alhajji emphasized that China doesn’ t publish oil demand data so the Bloomberg report about the size of the demand decline is a “ guesstimate at best. ”
China’ s National Health Commission on Sunday said cases of the new virus reached 17,205, while the death toll hit 361. Cases have also been reported outside the country, with the World Health Organization last week declaring a public health emergency of international concern.
U.S. benchmark stock indexes
traded broadly higher Monday after a Friday rout that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+2.04%
and the S & P 500
SPX,
+1.89%
log monthly declines for January.
Chinese equity markets plunged
Monday as they reopened after a Lunar New Year holiday that was extended amid the coronavirus outbreak.
How low oil prices go will really depend “ on when this virus peaks, how severe it is and how many countries it affects in addition to how much trade and economic activity is lost, ” said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit. “ The extent of demand destruction won’ t be known until the outbreak can be contained. ”
In other energy trading, March gasoline
US: RBH20
fell 2% to $ 1.4737 a gallon, while March heating oil
US: HOH20
lost 3.1% to $ 1.5779 a gallon, the lowest front-month contract finish since August 2017.
March natural gas
US: NGH20
declined by 1.2% to $ 1.819 per million British thermal units, marking another finish at its lowest since March 2016. Forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather in the eastern half of the U.S. weighed on demand prospects for the fuel, said Christin Redmond, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. | business |
Delta and American Airlines halt flights as U.S. warns travelers to avoid China — how airlines are responding to coronavirus | As U.S. government officials
declared a public-health emergency
and warned Americans to
avoid all travel to China
while the country grapples with a deadly coronavirus outbreak, a growing number of airlines and cruise lines are responding to travel restrictions.
Delta Air Lines
US: DAL
announced
Friday that it would temporarily suspend all U.S. flights to China from Feb. 6 through April 30 over coronavirus concerns, with flights continuing to operate until Feb. 5. American Airlines
US: AAL
also said
Friday that it would suspend flights to and from mainland China until March 27,
following a lawsuit
from the union representing the airline’ s pilots that sought to halt U.S.-China flights.
Meanwhile, British Airways
UK: IAG
said Wednesday
it would temporarily suspend flights to and from Shanghai and Beijing and reassess the situation on Friday. Air Canada
CA: AC
said it
would halt all fights
to Beijing and Shanghai from Jan. 30 to Feb. 29, after the Canadian government cautioned against non-essential travel.
United Airlines
US: UAL
suspended some flights between Feb. 1 and Feb. 8,
citing
a decline in demand for air travel to China. Cathay Pacific
HK:293
, Finnair
FI: FIA1S
, Air France
FR: AF
and Lufthansa
DE: LHA
have all either suspended or reduced flights to and from China. Lufthansa on Monday
extended its flight suspensions
to mainland China to Feb. 29 for flights to Beijing and Shanghai, and to March 29 for flights to Nanjing, Shenyang and Quingdao.
Don’ t miss:
As coronavirus infections exceed 4,500, here’ s how the illness has spread across the world so rapidly
The new coronavirus was first detected in China’ s Wuhan City, a transportation and manufacturing hub, with cases later reported in the U.S. and several other countries including Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam and Singapore. This strain of coronavirus had killed at least 361 people and infected 17,205 in China as of Sunday,
Chinese officials said
. Confirmed cases outside of China totaled 151 as of Monday, according to the World Health Organization
, which declared the outbreak
a global health emergency
last week. Eleven U.S. cases have been confirmed.
What U.S. government agencies have told American travelers
“ Do not travel to China due to the novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China, ” the State Department said in a travel advisory Thursday, noting that travelers should “ be prepared for travel restrictions to be put into effect with little or no advance notice. ” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also advised travelers to avoid all nonessential travel to China.
China had earlier placed Wuhan and several surrounding cities
under a travel ban
that spanned air, rail and public transport. The country has also suspended all overseas tour group and package flight/hotel vacation packages.
Also see:
Mayor of Wuhan, epicenter of coronavirus outbreak, says 5 million people left the city before travel restrictions were imposed
Airlines are responding with flight suspensions and change-fee waivers
Flights from China and passengers who have traveled to China in the past two weeks will be routed through 11 U.S. airports as of Monday, the Department of Homeland Security said Sunday. “ At these eleven airports, the United States Government has established enhanced screening procedures and the capacity to quarantine passengers, if needed, ”
DHS said
.
Officials had earlier screened travelers for the virus at 20 major U.S. airports.
These screenings
, which involve observing travelers for coronavirus symptoms, administering a questionnaire and taking their temperatures with a non-contact thermometer, are designed to identify sick people and educate travelers about the virus.
Several airlines are accommodating travelers who want to reschedule China-related travel plans. American Airlines
said it would allow passengers
who were traveling to, through or from Beijing or Shanghai and wanted to reschedule their trip to waive a change fee, given certain stipulations. The airline will also waive change fees for passengers who want to delay their trip up to a year from the original ticket date, with the possibility of paying a difference in fare.
Delta
said it would waive change fees
for passengers traveling to, through or from Beijing or Shanghai who made a one-time change to a different flight. Travelers can also cancel their trip and apply the unused value to a future flight for up to a year.
United Airlines
also issued travel waivers
in response to the outbreak, including refunds for unflown flights to Wuhan, and is waiving change fees for certain flights related to the Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai airports, with some restrictions. Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific
US: CPCAY
said it would waive rebooking, rerouting and refund charges for bookings to and from mainland China
on certain conditions
; German airline Lufthansa
US: DLAKY
,
meanwhile, is
allowing certain passengers
free rebooking or refunds for their flights in and out of mainland China.
Some cruise lines are canceling trips
“ Although risks to passengers and crew are low, cruise lines are implementing screening, prevention and control programs, ” says cruise-review site
Cruise Critic
, a subsidiary of TripAdvisor
US: TRIP
.
“ Lines are also denying boarding to people who have traveled recently to Hubei Province or Wuhan in the past 14 days. ”
Cruise companies have also canceled or changed dozens of itineraries, with Costa Cruises, Royal Caribbean
US: RCL
, Azamara, Silversea, Celebrity, Princess
US: CCL
, Star Cruises, Victoria Cruise Lines and MSC Cruises sailings among the cancellations, Cruise Critic reported Friday.
The Bahamas government, meanwhile,
instituted a travel ban
on non-resident visitors who had visited China in the last 20 days. As this length of time exceeds many cruise lines’ 14- or 15-day time frames,
Cruise Critic said
, it “ could lead to confusion as to who is permitted off the ship. ”
A number of Chinese tourist sites have temporarily closed
Several top historical and tourist attractions in China, including the Forbidden City, a stretch of the Great Wall of China near Beijing, Shanghai Disney Resort
US: DIS
,
the National Library of China and the National Museum of China, have closed as officials try to stem the spread of coronavirus,
The Wall Street Journal
reported.
McDonald’ s
US: MCD
has closed around 300 of its restaurants across China,
the Guardian
reported Wednesday. Starbucks
US: SBUX
, which extended its earlier Wuhan closings to all Hubei province stores, has shut half its stores in China,
the BBC
reported.
What to do if you have to travel to China
U.S. travelers who still must travel to China should discuss their travel plans with a health-care provider; avoid contact with people who are sick; stay away from dead or live animals, animal markets and animal products like raw meat; and frequently clean hands using soap and water ( for at least 20 seconds) or an alcohol-based hand sanitizer,
the CDC said
. Older travelers and those with underlying health problems could be at greater risk for disease, the agency added.
The CDC also offered guidance for people who had traveled to China in the past two weeks and had symptoms of cough, fever or difficulty breathing: Avoid contact with other people, call ahead to the doctor or emergency room and seek medical attention immediately, avoid travel, cover your nose and mouth area with a sleeve or tissue while sneezing or coughing, and practice frequent hand-washing.
Official recommendations could change at any time
There’ s a lot that public-health officials still don’ t know about this virus, and the CDC’ s recommendations are likely to evolve quickly, Scott Weisenberg, a clinical associate professor of medicine and director of NYU Langone Health’ s travel medicine program, told MarketWatch last week.
While officials’ efforts to control the virus’ s spread will hopefully succeed, he added, it’ s “ too soon to say right now ” whether that will be the case.
“ Right now it’ s very early in the course for this, so it’ s unclear how contagious [ this coronavirus ] will be with routine public-health measures that China and other countries are applying, ” Weisenberg said.
This story was originally published Jan. 28, 2020, and has been updated. | business |
Coronavirus spreads damage to Wall Street. Could the U.S. economy be next? | The coronavirus epidemic in China seemed like a distant threat to the U.S. economy a week ago, but that was before the carnage in the stock market. Fear itself, as is often the case on Wall Street, is also contagious.
After a 600-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.25%
on Friday, it’ s quite clear the spread of the virus poses a risk to economic growth in 2020, at least in China and other parts of the world.
Already, the World Health Agency declared an international emergency, airlines have suspended flights to China, some U.S.-based businesses have temporarily shut down their Chinese operations and the Federal Reserve said it’ s monitoring the situation closely.
The Chinese government itself quarantined tens of millions of people, closed many public venues, extended a long New Year holiday, and encouraged people to stay or work from home if possible.
Although the U.S. economy appears well insulated — barring a worldwide pandemic — the coronavirus is sure to have some kind of impact. After all, China has the world’ s second largest economy, it accounts for one-fifth of global gross domestic product and it’ s one of the largest trading partners of the United States.
The noxious effect of the virus, for one thing, could easily offset any benefits from an interim deal the U.S. and China signed earlier this month to ease a costly dustup over free trade.
It could even worsen the international trade situation if goods — and people — can’ t get in our out. Thousands of Chinese travelers are a big boon for the American tourism industry, for instance.
Some forecasting firms are already penciling in a sizable reduction in economic growth in the first quarter. Goldman Sachs estimates the crisis could cut as much as 0.5 percentage points off U.S. gross domestic product.
Just a week ago, most forecasters were predicting little or no impact.
The next week “ is going to be another big week for scary headlines, ” economists at Jefferies LLC told clients.
Read:
These states had the lowest unemployment rates in 2019. What about swing states?
Even with the coronavirus dominating the headlines, Wall Street is still going to pay close attention to the first big batch of reports on how the economy performed in the first month of the new year.
In any other week, the U.S. employment report for January would be the star headliner. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the economy added 162,000 new jobs last month. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at a 50-year low of 3.5%.
See:
MarketWatch Economic Calendar
The pace of hiring has slowed in the U.S. and wage growth appears to have flatlined, but as the low jobless rate shows, the labor market is still very robust and strong enough to support an economy that’ s expanded for a record 10 and a half years. The jobs report is published Friday.
Read:
Uh-oh: Wages and benefits for American workers have leveled off
Earlier in the week, Wall Street will also pay close attention to the ISM survey of American manufacturers to see if growth showed any improvement in January. The index fell below the key 50% level five months ago into contractionary territory.
Read:
Economy grows 2.1% in fourth quarter. GDP gets boost from falling trade deficit
Even if the index jumps above 50 again, a sustained rebound would seem unlikely until the coronavirus fades. China is by far the biggest center of production in manufacturing in the world and a big blow to its economy would damage the broader global economy as well.
“ The deep slowdown in China, even if only temporary, and spreading concerns about the virus look to chill growth more broadly, ” said chief economist Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets.
How much is the million dollar question, but it may be awhile before we get an answer. | business |
Fearing virus, Hong Kong residents stock up on food, essentials | Panic-stricken residents have emptied shelves in major supermarkets in Hong Kong, stockpiling meat, rice, cleaning products and soap as fears escalate over a coronavirus epidemic on the mainland.
The rush to procure food in the city of 7.4 million people is unprecedented, residents say, describing it as far worse than the panic during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS) that killed nearly 800 people around the world, including nearly 300 in Hong Kong.
The new coronavirus originated in central China’ s Hubei province and has so far killed 361 people in the country.
Over the weekend in Hong Kong, hundreds of people queued for hours to buy masks and immune-boosting products such as vitamin C.
At a major supermarket in the bustling Wan Chai district, counters selling chilled meat and seafood were empty by mid-morning on Friday and over the weekend, with stocks of fresh vegetables dwindling.
“ Everybody is really worried. I think everyone is afraid of what is going to happen in the next few days. Prices are also going to rise, ” said Cindy, a retail executive who was buying dry food and soap.
Dozens of mask-wearing shoppers pushed trolleys down empty aisles showing sold-out signs for hand wash and antiseptic liquids. Others tried to stock up on remaining bags of rice and packaged noodles.
The rush to buy food and cleaning products comes as some shoppers said they were concerned that a potential shutdown of the border would impact the supply of products.
Around 90 percent of the city’ s total food supply is imported, with the bulk coming from the mainland, according to official data.
The Hong Kong government has closed some border crossings, including the high-speed rail, but has stopped short of a complete shutdown, despite growing calls from medical workers, who plan a strike on Monday to demand action.
The government is grappling with how to handle spreading infections locally, with 15 confirmed cases in the city. Calls have grown for the government to close the border with mainland China to minimize the risk of infection.
Hong Kong’ s economy was badly hit during the SARS epidemic with tourism and services sectors the most affected as visitor arrivals tumbled and unemployment spiraled.
There was also a severe drop in consumer spending in the second quarter of 2003 due to SARS but a pick up for the rest of the year saw retail sales drop only 0.6 percent on the year
Last week, at an upmarket supermarket in Kowloon’ s Elements mall, chilled produce was sold out most afternoons while at Britain’ s Marks & Spencer, chicken was sold out by midday.
At local wet markets, which are typically packed with local residents, many stalls were shuttered as residents opted to shop in air-conditioned grocery stores, believing they were safer.
“ It is worrying that food is being stockpiled but what is even scarier is the stockpiling of masks and sanitizers, ” said a man who would only go by his first name, Nelson, who was shopping with his wife.
So frantic is the search for masks that police on Friday said a 56-year-old medical worker was in custody for stealing 36 face masks and gloves from a hospital where she worked.
Additional reporting by Jessie Pang and Scott Murdoch; Writing by Farah Master; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan | business |
Alibaba, Baidu among Chinese internet stocks rallying on U.S. markets | U.S.-listed Chinese internet stocks rallied in Monday trading after the People's Bank of China said it would intervene to help
stimulate the Chinese economy
as the coronavirus continues to spread, stalling business operations in the company. The rally for U.S.-listed internet stocks comes as the Shanghai Composite index dropped about 8% after it reopened Monday at the culmination of the Lunar New Year holiday, though the decline was not as steep as some had feared. Among the U.S.-listed shares trading higher in Monday's session are Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
BABA,
-1.66%
,
JD.com Inc.
JD,
-1.47%
,
and Qutoutiao Inc.
QTT,
-0.97%
Shares of Baidu Inc.
BIDU,
+0.86%
and iQiyi Inc.
IQ,
-3.52%
are also up sharply after Baidu raised its outlook late Friday but said it would be delaying its earnings report due to the outbreak. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF
KWEB,
-1.76%
is up 2.9% in Monday trading, though it has fallen 3.3% over the past month. | business |
Maersk, CMA CGM blank sailings as coronavirus spreads | Carriers canceling port of calls and blanking sailings is not an uncommon practice around the Lunar New Year as output, and therefore demand, for export transport from China slows.
The spreading coronavirus has extended the holiday and production shutdown, prolonging the usual seasonal slump on trade lanes out of Asia. The Chinese government requested companies operating in the country stay closed until Monday, according to CMA CGM. In addition, many local governments extended the holidays to Feb. 9 and Feb. 13 in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.
The continued production stoppage will create a backlog of shipments once restrictions lift and operations get back up and running, which will most likely lead to increased freight rates and cargo delays, according to Freightos.
The extended holiday has further decreased demand and prompted the need for blank sailings, Maersk said, though it `` endeavours to balance our network to match reduced demand. ''
CMA CGM noted `` demand deterioration on the Asia / North Europe trade caused by the Coronavirus '' as the impetus behind its blank sailings. Both carriers proposed alternative coverage for shipments.
The trend of blank sailings `` is expected to persist if the virus continues to spread, '' BIMCO said in an analysis emailed to Supply Chain Dive.
Freightos recommend shippers anticipate delays in goods coming out of China and to consider moving some planned ocean shipments to air, with the caveat that if several shippers go this route, the demand spike will also affect air freight rates.
In addition, belly cargo capacity is already reduced, as airlines such as British Airways, United Airlines and Cathay Pacific have suspended flights to and from China.
In past examples of virus outbreaks, markets have rebounded within months, according to BIMCO. However, `` The outbreak of the coronavirus adds yet another layer of massive uncertainty to the shipping markets, '' it said.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, whose maritime traffic jams have become emblematic of snarled supply chains, have already seen reduced vessel dwell times, the president said.
Biden's signature paves the way for $ 17 billion in port infrastructure and $ 25 billion for airports. Here's what trade associations are saying.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more.
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, whose maritime traffic jams have become emblematic of snarled supply chains, have already seen reduced vessel dwell times, the president said.
Biden's signature paves the way for $ 17 billion in port infrastructure and $ 25 billion for airports. Here's what trade associations are saying.
Topics covered: logistics, freight, operations, procurement, regulation, technology, risk/resilience and more. | general |
Sanders Could Win in Iowa. What It Means for Health-Care Stocks. | Victories by Bernie Sanders tend to rock health-care stocks.
Photograph by Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Sen. Bernie Sanders has the best shot in the Democratic primary field at winning the Iowa caucuses this evening,
according to pollsters.
Sanders is a bit of a boogeyman for health-care investors, given his commitment to a health-insurance scheme that would effectively kill much of the managed-care industry, and his victories have a tendency to rock health-care stocks.
So should investors brace for a fall tonight if Sanders wins Iowa?
Probably not, wrote Jefferies health-care trading-desk analyst Jared Holz in a note released Sunday evening.
“ Based on all of the rhetoric headed into Iowa, we believe the Street is pretty well conditioned for a Sanders victory, ” Holz wrote. “ Assuming Sanders takes Iowa, which most statistics point to, we believe Healthcare can hold in OK provided the gap between him and Biden is relatively small. ”
A victory by former vice president Joe Biden in the Iowa caucus, on the other hand, might boost health-care stocks. “ A Biden win this week in Iowa we believe would spur a materially higher move in the [ health-care sector, ] particularly in the
Healthcare Services
space, ” Holz wrote.
Health care stocks have been trailing the market so far in 2020, dragged down by the insurance companies. The
S & P 500
is up 0.2% since Dec. 31, while the
S & P 500 Health Care
sector is down 2.9%. The
S & P 500 Managed Health Care
subsector, which consists of the major health insurance firms, is down 7.6%, while the
S & P 500 Pharmaceuticals
index has fallen 1%.
It’ s not at all clear that the weakness stems from worry over Sanders’ s surge. Disappointing
earnings have hurt some insurers
, particularly
Anthem
( ticker: ANTM). And
growing anxiety over the Wuhan coronavirus is also likely having an impact
.
In a note on Monday, Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes wrote that she expected Biden to eventually win the Democratic nomination, but said that wouldn’ t be certain for months. In the meantime, she wrote that she expected swings in health-care services stocks.
“ We expect continued near-term volatility and would be buyers on weakness of stocks most impacted, ” she wrote, highlighting
HCA Healthcare
( HCA) and
Humana
( HUM) as her top picks.
The S & P 500 Health Care sector was up 0.8% as the market opened Monday, amid a marketwide rebound after a steep decline on Friday.
Write to
Josh Nathan-Kazis at
josh.nathan-kazis @ barrons.com | business |
Gilead’ s experimental Ebola drug being tested in patients infected with coronavirus | China and the US are testing Gilead’ s remdesivir in patients with the coronavirus, in the hopes of developing an effective treatment for a disease that does not yet have a vaccine.
This new anti-viral drug had been created with an aim to treat Ebola and SARS. It is being studied by a medical team at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing for efficacy in treating the coronavirus. It has been giving to a small number of patients with the disease.
Now a randomized trial is being established to test the drug against people who are not infected. Chief Medical Officer at Gilead, Merdad Parsey, said: “ While there are no antiviral data for remdesivir that show activity against 2019-nCoV at this time, available data in other coronaviruses give us hope. ”
A patient in the US also received this drug treatment. He is a 35-year-old man who developed pneumonia after contracting the coronavirus and has been hospitalised at the Providence Regional Medical Center Everett in Washington State. The doctors reported that on 26 January his condition seemed to improve within a day, and by 30 January it had resolved most of the symptoms except a cough.
Chief Medical Officer at Center, Jay Cook, said: “ We felt the benefits of using this drug outweighed whatever potential risk there might be and we obtained his informed consent. ” | tech |
Analysts recommend buying Nike on coronavirus weakness: 'Multi-year buying opportunity ' | Analysts on Wall Street recommend buying the recent dip in Nike's stock, which is getting hit on worries about the impact of the coronavirus epidemic.
UBS upgraded shares of Nike to buy from neutral and JPMorgan added the stock to its `` analyst focus list '' on Monday, sending shares of the athletic apparel company up 3%.
`` We see the recent pullback as a multi-year buying opportunity, '' JPMorgan retail analyst Matthew Boss said in a note to clients.
Shares of Nike are down nearly 8% in the past two weeks as investors worry about the impact the Chinese coronavirus could have on the shoe giant's Asia results. Nike relies on Greater China for about 16% of its revenues and nearly 30% of its sourcing for its apparel and footwear. Plus, an overall slowdown in global growth would disrupt the world's largest shoe retailer's business.
JPMorgan said Nike's recent weakness has brought the stocks price-earnings to growth ratio, commonly called the PEG ratio, to 1.5x, below the average 1.8x, meaning the stock is undervalued right now. UBS echoed this point when it said Nike's price-to-earnings ratio should be 37x, not 32x, which is its current level.
`` We now think the market will pay a much higher P/E for NKE as it realizes how Nike's business model changes will make the company worth much more long-term, '' UBS analyst Jay Sole said in a note to clients. UBS raised its price target on Nike to $ 136 per share from $ 103 per share, about 40% upside from Friday's closing price of $ 96.30 per share.
Boss also said Nike's new CEO John Donahoe is expected to focus on business `` acceleration '' at the company's investor meeting this week, which should boost sentiment.
The firm said the primary focus will be `` on the digital/DTC front and firm commitment to NKE's long-term financial model of high-single-digit revenue growth and mid-teens EPS annual expansion. ''
In UBS's downside scenario for Nike, `` China slows to a low-teens growth rate and the Wuhan Coronavirus negatively impacts sales, '' said Sole.
JPMorgan has an overweight rating on Nike and a $ 111 per share price target on the stock.
— with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom. | business |
OPEC+ considering further 500,000 bpd oil output cut: Sources | OPEC and its allies are considering cutting their oil output by a further 500,000 barrels per day ( bpd) due to the impact on oil demand from the coronavirus, two OPEC sources and a third industry source familiar with discussions said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, are considering holding a ministerial meeting on Feb. 14-15, one of the OPEC sources said, earlier than a current schedule for a meeting in March.
Oil has fallen $ 10 a barrel this year to $ 56, lower than the level many OPEC countries need to balance their budgets. The coronavirus outbreak in China could cut oil demand by more than 250,000 bpd in the first quarter, analysts and traders say.
OPEC member Iran said on Monday the spread of the virus had hit oil demand and called for an effort to stabilise prices, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported.
`` The oil market is under pressure and prices have dropped to under $ 60 a barrel and efforts must be made to balance it, '' Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said.
Russia on Friday said it was ready to bring forward the OPEC+ meetings to February. The country is the biggest non-OPEC producer working with OPEC so its approval is key.
An OPEC and non-OPEC panel called the Joint Technical Committee ( JTC) has scheduled a meeting for Feb. 4-5 in Vienna to assess the impact of the virus on demand, other OPEC+ sources said.
The technical panel is likely to make a recommendation on any further action to support the market, the sources said.
OPEC+ has been reducing oil supply to support prices, agreeing in December to cut output by 1.7 million bpd until the end of March. Its next meeting is scheduled for March 5-6.
The partners are also discussing extending the duration of the cuts and separate OPEC sources said last week the group wanted to prolong the curbs until at least June.
Saudi Arabia's economy, the largest in the Arab world, remains dominated by hydrocarbon revenue despite plans to diversify. The kingdom needs prices of around $ 80 to balance its state budget. | business |
Tech sector should brace for drastic coronavirus impact | The coronavirus outbreak is expected to severely impact South Africa’ s ICT market, as more global tech giants doing business in China suspend their office operations.
Analysts say while the economic impact of China’ s coronavirus outbreak will depend on how long it ultimately lasts, its repercussions on global technology markets are already being seen, and South African tech firms should brace themselves for the consequences.
The outbreak, which originated in the central city of Wuhan in December, has seen several technology companies ‒ including Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung, Google and Apple ‒ impose travel restrictions to and from China, with some altogether suspending their office operations in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Almost half of the Fortune 500 companies have investments in Wuhan, with most technology giants having their manufacturing hubs in China, where a range of devices including PC components and peripherals, and consumer devices are manufactured.
Arthur Goldstuck, CEO of World Wide Worx, says if the Wuhan lockdown spreads to manufacturing hubs like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, SA could see a massive shortage of tech components and products, resulting in large and rapid price increases.
“ South African companies doing business in China will be severely affected due to travel restrictions, ” notes Goldstuck.
“ While in the short-term, the supply chain for products coming from China does not seem severely affected, technology supply and manufacturers related directly to Wuhan will be severely curtailed, due to the city being in virtual lockdown.
“ Wuhan is known as Optics Valley, supplying a quarter of the world's optical fibre, so we may well see prices go up, as clients turn to other sources. SA's rapidly growing fibre connectivity industry may, then, be affected, but most companies should have reasonable stock levels, given the demand we see locally. ”
Goldstuck points out Chinese companies supplying the South African market may not see a dramatic impact in the short-term.
“ Some well-known Chinese tech companies with a presence in SA, like Lenovo, have major factories in Wuhan, but they can divert manufacturing to other centres. ”
The outbreak, which entered a crucial phase after the World Health Organisation declared it a global health emergency, had claimed the lives of 361 by this morning, with over 12 000 confirmed infection cases. This weekend, the Philippines became the first country outside of China to record a fatality from the illness.
Over the weekend, Apple announced on its Web site that all its 42 China-based stores will be closed until 9 February. The company said it is shutting down all operations, including corporate offices, stores and contact centres.
This was followed by Samsung Electronics announcing it will also temporarily shut down its flagship store in downtown Shanghai.
China is an important market for Apple – it is among the top five smartphone vendors in China and the only non-Chinese vendor, earning nearly 15% of its revenue from the country.
The outbreak has seen the first mandatory Centres for Disease Control and Prevention quarantine in the US in 50 years, with some governments across the globe temporarily suspending all flights to and from China.
Derrick Chikanga, senior analyst of IT services at research firm Africa Analysis, believes it’ s too early to measure the consequences of the outbreak on the local tech sector.
“ This virus was first reported on the 31st of December 2019, and it’ s only been just over a month since then. As such, I’ d think any measures currently being put in place could only be temporary until the virus is brought under control. We will have to wait and see how authorities respond to the situation as a whole before trying to establish the potential implications on the local tech sector. ”
Technology research firm GlobalData says while the temporary closure of tech companies in China will have a negative impact on the product offerings and development initiatives targeted at the domestic audience, the closure of manufacturing plants will have a much larger impact on the product release and the 2020 roadmap of these technology giants.
Nishant Singh, head of technology and telecoms data at GlobalData, explains: “ The manufacturing of devices and components is via an intricate supply chain which traverses the region, and hence a prolonged outbreak can drastically affect the manufacturing obligations – this will in turn impact the product release roadmap of these technology giants.
“ Even if factory operations for these technology hubs are temporarily suspended, like it has happened with Tesla’ s Shanghai plant, the impact of the reduced production might cascade through to the rest of 2020. ”
While the technology markets in the other geographies might eventually bounce back and recover after the outbreak, especially in the second half of the year, the impact will be drastic for the domestic technology market in China, notes Singh.
GlobalData previously estimated the market for enterprise ICT products and services in China will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9% between 2019 and 2023.
“ Before the outbreak, we had estimated 8% growth in 2020 for the enterprise ICT market in China. The outbreak will likely shave off around 2% of this growth, as there will be limited spending in this quarter. ”
While most of the technology giants have their manufacturing hubs in China, fortunately though, the majority of the manufacturing hubs for these devices are still functioning, for now at least, such as Foxconn, a major manufacturer for several big technology companies including Apple, Intel, Microsoft and Sony, notes GobalData.
Similarly, Pegatron, another prominent manufacturer of PC components and peripherals, has also so far not indicated any negative impact on its manufacturing facilities in mainland China. | general |
Cyber criminals cash in on coronavirus fears | While the spread of coronavirus grows, and the situation becomes more dire with the World Health Organisation declaring the deadly virus a global health crisis last week, cyber criminals are already exploiting people’ s fears about the situation and spreading malware.
Attackers have been using worldwide disasters, and current and popular events, to spread malware as these events are more likely to fool users into clicking on malicious links or opening malicious files.
In a report by IBM X-Force Exchange, researchers revealed that they have detected a new wave of such exploitation, driven by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China.
“ Unfortunately, it is quite common for threat actors to exploit basic human emotions such as fear, especially if a global event has already caused terror and panic, '' say the researchers.
What makes these attacks unusual, according to X-Force, is that they deliver the Emotet Trojan, which has shown increased activity recently.
“ It achieves this by urging its victims into opening an attached Word document, described as a supposed notice regarding infection prevention measures, ” says IBM.
The e-mails pose as legitimate mails sent by a Japanese disability welfare service provider. The text claims that reports have been circulating about coronavirus patients in the Gifu prefecture in Japan and urges the target to view the attached Word document for more detail.
However, once IBM researchers ran the document through a sandbox, they were able to retrace the infection process. Should the attachment be opened with macros enabled, an obfuscated Visual Basic for Applications ( VBA) macro script opens PowerShell and installs an Emotet downloader in the background. This is the standard behaviour of most Emotet documents, the company says.
In the past, Emotet e-mails in Japan have centred around corporate style payment notifications and invoices, much like the ones that have been seen targeting European victims, the researchers say. They note that this new approach to delivering the Trojan could be infinitely more successful as it is capitalising on the wide impact of the disease and the fear of infection surrounding it.
IBM says it expects malicious e-mail traffic based on the coronavirus to increase in the coming wees, as the virus and, with it, the fear of infection spreads.
Researchers speculate that Japanese users were most likely targeted due to their close proximity to China. They expect malicious e-mail traffic to start including other languages as well, depending on the impact of the outbreak and the regions it spreads to.
The report recommends to make sure that anti-virus software and associated files are up to date, and search for indicators of compromise in their environment.
“ Block all URL and IP-based IOCs at the firewall, IDS, Web gateways, routers or other perimeter-based devices, and keep applications and operating systems running at the current released patch level, ” IBM researchers conclude. | general |
Top WHO officials: World is unprepared for next pandemic as coronavirus spreads | WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned on Monday that the world may be `` dangerously '' unprepared for the next pandemic as the flu-like coronavirus that emerged from China about a month ago spreads rapidly to new countries.
At an executive board meeting in Geneva, Tedros urged the World Health Organization's 196 member countries to `` invest in preparedness, '' not `` panic. '' He added that funding for outbreak preparedness in surrounding countries `` has remained grossly inadequate '' in the past.
`` For too long, the world has operated on a cycle of panic and neglect, '' Tedros said, according to a transcript of his remarks. `` We throw money at an outbreak, and when it's over, we forget about it and do nothing to prevent the next one. ''
`` If we fail to prepare, we are preparing to fail, '' he added.
Tedros said more than $ 1 billion has been spent trying to stop the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. By comparison, he added, just $ 18 million was spent on preparedness in Congo's neighbor Uganda before the virus crossed the border.
`` This must be a lesson for the rest of the world, '' he said.
The plea from WHO's top official comes as the deadly coronavirus has now killed at least 362 people and sickened more than 17,400 worldwide, including patients in the U.S. and Europe.
The respiratory illness, which is capable of spreading through human-to-human contact, is not yet considered a pandemic. A pandemic is `` an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people, '' according to WHO. While the new virus has spread to almost two dozen countries, the majority of the cases remain in mainland China.
Nevertheless, many global health experts expect the virus will become a pandemic. Since emerging about a month ago in Wuhan, China, the coronavirus has infected more people than the 2003 SARS epidemic, which sickened roughly 8,100 people across the globe over nine months. As of Monday, there are nearly 200 cases in at least 23 countries, outside of China, a handful of which have been transmitted from human contact within those countries.
On Thursday, WHO declared the virus a global health emergency after declining to do so at two previous meetings.
Tedros said the `` continued increase in cases and the evidence of human-to-human transmission outside of China '' were `` most deeply disturbing. ''
`` Over the past few weeks we have witnessed the emergence of a previously unknown pathogen that has escalated into an unprecedented outbreak, '' Tedros said during a news conference at the organization's Geneva headquarters last week. `` We must act together now to limit the spread. ''
In the U.S., the Trump administration declared the novel coronavirus a public health emergency, and announced that certain foreign nationals deemed to pose a risk of transmitting the disease will temporarily be denied entry to the United States. Some returning American citizens potentially at risk will be quarantined. Public health officials say they are trying to contain the infection, which has sickened 11 U.S. citizens, before it spreads too quickly | business |
China's yuan weakens but falling yen points to risk recovery | The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc retreated on Monday, as risk sentiment improved and fears about the coronavirus eased after China took measures to cushion the impact of the new epidemic and pledged to do more to contain it and support the country's financial markets.
China's offshore yuan dropped to a more than seven-week low against the U.S. dollar on Monday, but trimmed its losses as New York trading got underway.
After rising to multi-week highs against the dollar last week in the face of the coronavirus scare, the yen and Swiss franc took a pause from their climb as markets cheered China's efforts.
China's central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates on reverse repurchase agreements by 10 basis points and injected 1.2 trillion yuan ( $ 174 billion) worth of liquidity into the markets via reverse repo operations on Monday.
Chinese authorities also pledged to use various monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity remains reasonably ample and to support firms affected by the virus epidemic, which has so far claimed 305 lives, all but one in China.
`` Traders are looking for value where they can, '' said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Cambridge Global Payments, in Toronto. `` A large part of what we're seeing in the market today is bargain-hunting in anticipation of a return to stimulus from the Chinese government. ''
Chinese markets took a beating in the first trading session after an extended Lunar New Year break. The offshore yuan dropped as low as 7.023 yuan per dollar. The dollar was last up 0.2% against the Chinese currency. The dollar also rallied more than 1% against the onshore yuan from levels before the holiday to 7.0155 yuan.
In morning trading, the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 108.61, off a three-week low set on Friday.
The dollar extended gains versus the yen after data showed the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index rose in January.
The Swiss franc also fell against the dollar, which climbed 0.3% to 0.9662 franc. Gains against the yen and Swiss franc pushed the dollar index higher, which was last up 0.4% at 97.797.
The euro also fell 0.4% versus the dollar to $ 1.1044. The Australian dollar was up 0.1% at US $ 0.6697, holding near a 10-1/2-year low of $ 0.6670 touched last October.
The currency is often regarded as a proxy for the yuan, being more freely traded and because of Australia's reliance on trade with China. Sterling, meanwhile, tumbled after Britain laid out a tough opening stance for future talks with the European Union following its departure from the bloc last week.
Sterling was last down 1.3% at $ 1.3030, retracing all of its gains following the Bank of England's decision last week to keep interest rates on hold. | business |
Here's what US schools are doing in response to the coronavirus | As concerns over the coronavirus mount, some U.S. school districts have canceled Chinese student exchange programs to alleviate fears in the community.
Since the first outbreak of the new virus reported in Wuhan, China, in late December, the virus has spread both locally and overseas, sickening about 17,400 people across the globe and killing at least 362. There have been 11 cases in the United States so far.
Last month, Yakima School District canceled the trip of eight students, two teachers, and two administrators, who were planning to travel to Macao, China in mid-February. Washington was also the first state where a U.S. case of the coronavirus was identified when a man in his 30s was confirmed sick in Snohomish County.
A handful of schools and school districts in Massachusetts have also canceled Chinese exchange programs. Brookline school district said a planned student trip to China has been postponed indefinitely. Norton school district said 10 Chinese students from schools in and around Beijing are no longer coming to study at its schools as originally planned. Easton Middle School, which was supposed to host about 10 to 16 students from the Shijiazhuang Foreign Language School in China starting Monday, canceled its plans as well.
Philadelphia's William Penn Charter School said in January that it was canceling its two-week-long Chinese student exchange program after a student was tested for the coronavirus, Sharon Sexton, a spokeswoman for the school, told CNBC. The test turned out negative.
It is likely the exchange program will continue next year when it is advisable to travel to the region, Sexton said.
Some school districts are taking extra precautions. The Chula Vista Elementary School District in San Diego sent a letter to parents last week asking them to follow the guidelines released by the California Department of Public Health.
`` During the outbreak, we ask any students who have a fever of 100.4 Fahrenheit or greater to be kept home until they have no fever for 24 hours, without fever medication, '' superintendent Francisco Escobedo stated in the letter.
Others are going even further and asking students who have traveled to the region not to attend classes.
Four students who visited China for the Lunar New Year were advised to live-off campus temporarily at the Annie Wright Schools, a private boarding school in Tacoma, Washington. The students did not visit Wuhan or have symptoms of the coronavirus, according to the Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department. The students are expected to return to the dorm after a week, Annie Wright spokesperson Lisa Isenman told CNBC.
Thirty high school students from The Benjamin School, an independent day school in Palm Beach County, were told to stay home from class. The students were at a Model United Nations event at Yale University attended by a Chinese student who was thought to potentially have coronavirus. The student has since then tested negative, according to New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker. | business |
CDC and state officials prepare quarantine facilities for travelers from Hubei | U.S. health officials revealed fresh details Monday about the order to quarantine hundreds of Americans to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now killed at least 362 people and sickened nearly 17,400 worldwide.
Health officials say 195 Americans are now in mandatory quarantine. But that number is expected to grow as Americans who have recently traveled to Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, return to the U.S., Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Monday.
Trump administration officials on Friday announced a mandatory 14-day quarantine for any U.S. citizen or permanent resident who has traveled to Hubei province in the two weeks prior to the announcement. With some exceptions, travelers who are not citizens or permanent residents of the U.S. who have been in Hubei will not be admitted into the U.S., the announcement said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working with state and local health authorities to prepare facilities for quarantine, Messonnier said.
`` The discussions about where those patients will go is a conversation the CDC has been having actively with the state and local health departments, '' she said. `` We are working through an operational plan that might be slightly different at each of those locations depending on how much preparation they 've done. ''
All flights from China are now being funneled through 11 airports in the U.S., so passengers eligible for quarantine will be brought to facilities near those airports, Messonnier added. Where passengers will be quarantined may vary broadly depending on where they land, Messonnier added.
`` I think for some specific locations, military bases are close by, '' she said. `` Other states have already made plans for hotels as part of their operational planning. ''
Messonnier declined to provide an estimate of the number of people who will be placed in quarantine.
Messonnier also said Monday that the State Department is preparing to send more evacuation flights to Wuhan. Those flights, however, will land in the U.S. at `` specific Department of Defense locations, '' rather than the 11 designated airports.
CDC officials will monitor the health of the passengers throughout the quarantine, Messonnier said.
The decision to quarantine Americans is based largely on mounting evidence that the new coronavirus spreads before symptoms appear, she said. | business |
Oil bear market deepens as OPEC talks emergency action to deal with coronavirus crisis | Even as OPEC and Russia consider an emergency production cut, oil is tanking and the outlook for prices is getting dimmer.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were below $ 50 per barrel in late trading Monday, after closing at $ 50.11, a decline of 23.7% from its Jan. 8 intraday high of $ 65.65 per barrel. WTI first fell more than 20% from that level on Jan. 27 on an intraday basis, putting it in a bear market, according to Refinitiv data. Brent crude prices plunged nearly 4% Monday and was down 24% from its January high, when it closed at $ 54.45 per barrel.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Russia have reportedly held preliminary discussions about expanding their production cuts, in place since 2016. The joint technical committee that monitors the progress of the group's market efforts was expected to meet this week to discuss the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and potential action.
Oil prices were slammed Monday, as the virus continued to spread and cruise ships became a bigger concern. Japan quarantined Carnival's Diamond Princess, after a Hong Kong man who sailed on it last month tested positive with coronavirus. The 80-year old had flown to Japan to board the ship, which had 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew on board.
Fears the virus could impact cruise ship bookings or even curb cruises has been hanging over the travel industry, after airlines cut back on flights to China. Transportation in major Chinese cities has been shut down, and Chinese flights have been grounded.
Oil prices attempted to rally Monday on the reports OPEC might cut another 500,000 barrels on top of the current 1.8 million, but virus concerns reversed early gains.
`` They're getting run over by this demand destruction, `` said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. `` Yet another segment of the transportation fuel demand is potentially staring down a big loss. ''
Citigroup energy analysts sliced their price expectations for crude from the high $ 60s for Brent this year to the $ 50s, including an average of $ 54 for the first quarter and $ 50 for the second quarter. They said Brent could touch as low as $ 47. The analysts expect Brent to return to $ 58 by the fourth quarter and then slide to $ 53 in 2021.
`` The depth of the impact on oil looks much deeper than we initially thought, even with a deeper OPEC+ cut, with Chinese government measures amounting to a major shutdown of the economy, '' the analysts wrote. `` This drives much weaker oil balances, though also an uptick from 4Q'20. Returning supply from Libya/Iran could be another bearish hit. ''
The Citi analysts said China's passenger and freight traffic could be down 70% for two or more weeks, before gradually recovering.
They said demand could fall by 1 million barrels a day in the first quarter, given the much larger size of China's economy and oil demand now, compared to during the SARS outbreak in 2003.
`` If China's refinery runs hold up, buying US oil to meet Phase One trade deal commitments, this could boost product exports, pressuring margins and crude demand ex-China, hitting prices across the oil complex, '' the Citi analysts added.
As for WTI, it slid below $ 50 in after hours trading. `` We're certainly going to take a trip down in the upper $ 40s for a time here, potentially the low $ 40s, but that's as far as I 'll go. We just don't know enough, '' said Kilduff.
Even with 1 million barrels a day of Libyan oil off the market, the world is still well supplied as demand dries up. In the U.S., gasoline demand has slipped but the U.S. industry continues to see solid exports, with oil exports of about 3.5 million barrels a day.
`` The cash markets have really softened up globally. Sinopec is out there looking to resell about half a dozen crude cargoes, '' said Kilduff.
Jet fuel prices have cratered and are down 25% and more for the year.
RBC analysts say global flight cancellations spiked to more than 3,000 a day over the weekend. `` In aggregating flight databases to track real time aviation patterns across the top five busiest Chinese airports, we found that flight activity plunged 12% over the Lunar New Year weekend, and continues to track lower, falling by a staggering 41% from normal levels, '' they wrote.
The analysts noted that the coronavirus is currently a Chinese jet fuel demand story for now, and not yet a global demand story.
`` The oil market has been subject to many supply shocks over recent years, but an acute demand shock has not been felt since the 2008 financial crisis. The coronavirus has roiled the oil market, alongside many other asset classes, but this epidemic is a global story, not one confined to oil market fundamentals, '' the RBC analysts noted.
`` These are the darkest days in the industry that I can remember in awhile, '' said Kilduff. | business |
Ryanair warns Boeing 737 Max delays could stifle growth by two years | Ryanair ( RYA.L) on Monday warned that delays in the delivery of Boeing’ s ( BA) 737 Max aircraft could force the airline to push back its goal of flying 200 million passengers a year by up to two years.
The low-cost carrier had planned to fly that many passengers in its 2024 financial year, but CEO Michael O’ Leary said that it would now not happen until 2025, and suggested it may take until 2026.
Ryanair, one of the 737 Max jet’ s biggest customers, said on Monday that it now did not expect delivery of the aircraft until September or October 2020.
It hopes to have 55 of the 210 aircraft it has on order flying by summer 2021, a full year later than it had originally anticipated.
READ MORE: Coronavirus sparks biggest Chinese stock crash since 2015
The Boeing 737 Max has been grounded globally since March 2019 following two fatal crashes that killed all passengers on board the aircraft.
The airline again blamed the delays for the closure of a number of loss-making bases, which led to job losses in Spain, Germany, and Sweden.
Ryanair reiterated the extent to which it expected the aircraft to accelerate its growth plans once they are actually delivered, however.
READ MORE: Firms demand'seat at the table ' in post-Brexit trade deals
Citing their more economical fuel usage and greater number of seats, Ryanair said the “ gamechanger ” 737 Max will “ transform ” its cost base and business for the next decade.
Ryanair on Monday reported net profit of €88m ( £75m) in the three months to the end of December 2019, the third quarter of its financial year.
That was a 230% climb on its €66m loss in the same period in its previous financial year, which was largely driven by a one-off deficit in its Austrian subsidiary Laudamotion and weak winter fares.
Ryanair also raised its guidance for its current financial year and said that it expected full-year pre-tax profits to come in between €950m and €1.05bn, up from a previous forecast of €800m to €900m.
Shares in Ryanair climbed by more than 4.5% on Monday following the trading update. | business |
Coronavirus: Why stock markets are panicking about China's economy | Chinese stocks had their worst day in nearly five years on Monday, even after the People’ s Bank of China tried to ease fears by pumping a mammoth $ 171bn ( £130bn) into the country’ s financial system.
The sell-off was driven by growing anxiety about the coronavirus epidemic. While primarily a public health crisis, the outbreak is having an economic impact too.
“ In the short term, [ it’ s ] likely to bring some slowdown, ” Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said last week. “ In the long term, we don't know. ”
While the full impact is still up in the air, economists already expect a significant hit to global GDP growth.
Investment banks Goldman Sachs ( GS), UBS ( UBS), and Jefferies ( JEF) have all warned about the economic impact of coronavirus in recent days.
Economists are looking to the 2003 SARS epidemic to put coronavirus in context.
SARS, which is similar to coronavirus, knocked two full percentage points off China’ s economic growth in the quarter before the virus was contained; 8,100 people were infected with the virus over the course of eight months.
There have now been well over 17,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide, less than two months after the first cases emerged. There is no indication that infections are slowing.
Not only is the coronavirus outbreak larger, but China is far more dominant in the global economy than it was in 2003 when SARS broke out.
“ As a share of global GDP, Chinese goods imports are three times as large as they were in 2003. And Chinese tourists’ spending abroad is about eight times as large, ” Jan Hatzius, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, told clients on a call on Monday.
READ MORE: Coronavirus sparks biggest Chinese stock crash since 2015
Chinese equities play a much larger role in markets too. In dollar-value terms, Chinese stocks accounted for just 5% of Asian equities in 2003. Now, they account for 33%, meaning a sell-off in China ricochets across an entire continent.
Adding to China’ s economic significance is its status as the world’ s biggest oil importer. Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, is one of the country’ s oil and gas hubs.
“ The coronavirus will have a much more meaningful impact on GDP [ than SARS ], ” analysts at Jefferies said on Monday.
Goldman Sachs predicted the epidemic would shave two percentage points off Chinese economic growth in the first quarter, assuming the virus is contained within the next two months.
That would take China’ s annual GDP growth to 5.5% in 2020 — the slowest pace of expansion in 30 years.
Goldman warned global growth could be cut by two percentage points in the first quarter, as a result of the slowdown in China and spillover effects internationally. China is the European Union’ s second-largest trading partner and Germany sends more goods to China than anywhere else.
UBS and Jefferies have predicted similar blows to global GDP growth.
The economic impact of epidemics is typically linked to efforts to contain outbreaks.
Travel in China has been severely restricted, factories have been shut down, and major retailers like Apple, Starbucks and McDonald’ s have shuttered stores across the country. Most consumers are hunkered down at home.
All of that means less demand for imported goods, air fares, and potential supply chain problems for companies. It translates to lower profit expectations at many companies, which is what’ s driving investors to sell shares.
One of the worst-hit sectors has been luxury goods, which relies heavily on affluent Chinese shoppers. Shares in Burberry ( BRBY.L), for example, have lost more than 10% of their value since the beginning of the year.
Economists are now focused on figuring out just how long the coronavirus outbreak will continue.
“ The key issue is how long these [ restrictions ] stay in place and whether you start seeing these kinds of restrictions in other countries, ” Andrew Tilton, chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs, said on Monday.
READ MORE: How coronavirus outbreak is hitting companies around the world
Tilton said epidemics typically trigger a “ one- to three-month slowdown in the economy, which often cuts several percentage points at an annual rate off GDP growth for one quarter in the worst-hit economies. ”
But he warned annual Chinese GDP growth could fall below the 5% mark if the virus is not contained by the start of the second quarter.
We are still in a period of “ high uncertainty, ” said Zach Pandl, co-head of global FX at Goldman Sachs.
“ We don't really know what exactly the scale of the crisis we have here is, ” he said. | business |
Coronavirus: Airlines scramble to enforce US travel restrictions | The Trump administration's sweeping new travel restrictions aimed at combating the spread of the new coronavirus took effect Sunday, leaving airline employees around the world scrambling to enforce them.
More than 17,200 people have fallen ill to the coronavirus worldwide, killing at least 361 people in China and a 44-year-old man in the Philippines, according to international health officials.
The new U.S. travel rules, announced Friday, prohibit foreigners who have been in China in the last 14 days from entering the United States. Exemptions include whether they are an immediate family member of a U.S. citizen or a permanent resident. The U.S. is imposing a 14-day quarantine on citizens who have visited China's Hubei province — where Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, is located — and self-quarantines for citizens who have been in China in the last 14 days. Hong Kong and Macau are exempt, according to the president's proclamation.
The Transportation Security Administration on Sunday instructed airlines with flights to the U.S. from other countries to screen passengers before boarding to find out whether they 've been in China recently, according to a security directive that was reviewed by CNBC. Check-in and gate agents or other employees are required to question travelers, look through recent reservations and possibly their passports for entry or exit stamps, according to the order, which provided examples of the stamps from China.
Airlines recommended U.S.-bound travelers arrive at airports earlier than usual.
TSA noted that it is not involved in screening air travelers bound for the U.S. from abroad but an agency spokeswoman said it `` is requiring carriers to enforce portions of the president's proclamation that limit who may board a commercial aircraft destined for the United States. ''
The airlines don't have to rely only on passenger answers and must work with U.S. Customs and Border Protection to make a determination, the spokeswoman said.
The restrictions are complex and will mean all travelers headed to the U.S. will likely get questioned, not just people coming directly from China, from where many carriers have already cut routes. From Mexico City to Rome to Dubai, airline staff or their local contractors will have to question all travelers before they can board a U.S.-bound flight in case they had traveled from China to another country before their flight to the U.S.
The screening will apply to tens of thousands of travelers a day. Customs and Border Protection figures show it processed an average of 371,780 people at U.S. airports each day in the last fiscal year, although February travel demand is much lower than in the summer. Some 14,000 people flew into the U.S. from China each day that year.
Foreign travelers who fall under the U.S. restrictions will be denied boarding. The U.S. citizens and permanent residents who have been in China in the last 14 days must be rerouted into one of 11 airports — Atlanta, Chicago's O'Hare, Los Angeles International, San Francisco International, Honolulu, Seattle, Newark, Washington Dulles, Detroit, Dallas/Fort Worth, and New York's Kennedy Airport — for enhanced screening.
`` We realize this could provide added stress and prolong travel times for some individuals, however public health and security experts agree these measures are necessary to contain the virus and protect the American people, '' DHS acting Secretary Chad Wolf said in a statement Sunday. `` To minimize disruptions, CBP and air carriers are working to identify qualifying passengers before their scheduled flights. Once back in the U.S., it's imperative that individuals honor self-quarantine directives to help protect the American public. ''
That means that if a U.S. citizen was in China and then traveled to Dublin with a later flight to Boston, the carrier would need to rebook them to one of the designated U.S. airports so they could be screened on arrival. ( Passengers do not have to cover the cost of a change in their itinerary.)
Such a system relies on the self-reporting by passengers and how much information airline employees can confirm.
Some travelers arriving at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport on Monday morning from India told CNBC that airline employees asked them if they had been in China when they departed for the U.S. but several other travelers who were arriving from the Dominican Republic, Kenya and Senegal said they were only asked upon arrival in the U.S.
`` It's an imperfect system, '' said Henry Harteveldt, founder of travel consulting firm Atmosphere Research Group. `` This is not the best approach. It relies on the honor system and some passengers are just not going to be truthful. ''
It's not the first time airline employees have been tasked with enforcing new rules for travelers. Gate agents and others have had to screen travelers for what has been sometimes confusing restrictions, such as the 2017 in-cabin electronics bans and outright bans on citizens of several nations.
Failing to follow restrictions can be costly because airlines are responsible for flying individuals without accepted documents back. They can also face fines of around $ 3,500, according to the International Air Transport Association, an airline trade group.
-CNBC's Contessa Brewer contributed to this article. | business |
Stopping the spread of coronavirus: Quarantines go back thousands of years | Live Science is supported by its audience. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more
By Leslie S. Leighton published 3 February 20
The recent global spread of a deadly coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China, has led world leaders to invoke an ancient tradition to control the spread of illness: quarantine.
The practice is first recorded in the Old Testament where several verses mandate isolation for those with leprosy. Ancient civilizations relied on isolating the sick, well before the actual microbial causes of disease were known. In times when treatments for illnesses were rare and public health measures few, physicians and lay leaders, beginning as early as the ancient Greeks, turned to quarantine to contain a scourge.
In January, Chinese authorities attempted to lock down millions of residents of Wuhan and the surrounding area, to try to keep the new coronavirus from spreading outward. The country's neighbors are closing borders, airlines are canceling flights, and nations are advising their citizens against traveling to China, a modern instance of the old impulse to restrict people's movements in order to stop disease transmission.
U.S. authorities are holding travelers returning from China in isolation for two weeks as an effort to halt coronavirus ' spread. Always at the center of the policy of quarantine is the tension between individual civil liberties and protection of the public at risk.
The meaning of quarantine has evolved from its original definition `` as the detention and segregation of subjects suspected to carry a contagious disease. ''
Now it represents a period of isolation for persons or animals with a contagious disease — or who may have been exposed but aren't yet sick. Although in the past it may have been a self-imposed or voluntary separation from society, in more recent times quarantine has come to represent a compulsory action enforced by health authorities.
Leprosy, mentioned in both Old and New testaments, is the first documented disease for which quarantine was imposed. In the Middle Ages, leper colonies, administered by the Catholic Church, sprung up throughout the world. Although the causative agent of leprosy — the bacterium Mycobacterium leprae — was not discovered until 1873, its disfiguring and incurable nature made civilizations wrongly believe it was easily spread.
The plague of the 14th century gave rise to the modern concept of quarantine. The Black Death first appeared in Europe in 1347. Over the course of four years, it would kill between 40 million and 50 million people in Europe and somewhere between 75 million and 200 million worldwide.
In 1377, the seaport in Ragusa, modern day Dubrovnik, issued a `` trentina '' — derived from the Italian word for 30 ( trenta). Ships traveling from areas with high rates of plague were required to stay offshore for 30 days before docking. Anyone onboard who was healthy at the end of the waiting period was presumed unlikely to spread the infection and allowed onshore.
Thirty was eventually extended to 40 days, giving rise to the term quarantine, from the Italian word for 40 ( quaranta). It was in Ragusa that the first law to enforce the act of quarantine was implemented.
Over time, variations in the nature and regulation of quarantine emerged. Port officials asked travelers to certify they hadn't been to areas with severe disease outbreaks, before allowing them to enter. In the 19th century, quarantine was abused for political and economic reasons, leading to the call for international conferences to standardize quarantine practices. Cholera epidemics throughout the early 19th century made clear the lack of any uniformity of policy.
The CDC, under statutory authority of the Health and Human Services ( HHS) Secretary, has issued federal quarantine orders to all 195 United States citizens who repatriated to the U.S. on January 29, 2020. The quarantine will last 14 days from when the plane left Wuhan, China.January 31, 2020
The United States has also had its share of epidemics, beginning in 1793, with the outbreak of yellow fever in Philadelphia. A series of further disease outbreaks led Congress in 1878 to pass laws that mandated involvement of the federal government in quarantine. The arrival of cholera to the United States, in 1892, prompted even greater regulation.
Perhaps the best known example of quarantine in American history, pitting an individual's civil liberties against public protection, is the story of Mary Mallon, aka `` Typhoid Mary. '' An asymptomatic carrier of typhoid fever in the early 20th century, she never felt sick but nevertheless spread the disease to families for whom she worked as a cook.
Officials quarantined Mary on North Brother Island in New York City. Released after three years, she promised never to cook for anyone again. Breaking her vow and continuing to spread the disease, she was returned to North Brother Island, where she remained for the remainder of her life in isolation.
More recently, in 2007, public health officials quarantined a 31-year-old Atlanta attorney, Andrew Speaker, who was infected with a drug-resistant form of tuberculosis. His case grabbed international attention when he traveled to Europe, despite knowing he had and could spread this form of TB. Fearing quarantine in Italy, he returned to the United States, where he was apprehended by federal authorities and quarantined at a medical center in Denver, where he also received treatment. Following release, deemed no longer contagious, he was required to report to local health officials five days a week through the end of his treatment.
Quarantine today continues as a public health measure to limit the spread of contagious disease, including not just coronavirus, but Ebola, flu and SARS.
Its stigma has largely been removed by emphasizing not only the benefits of quarantine to society, by removing contagious individuals from the general population, but also the benefit of treatment to those who are ill.
In the United States, where the Constitution guarantees personal rights, it's a serious decision to restrict an individual's freedom of travel and compel medical treatment. And quarantine is not an ironclad way to prevent the spread of disease. But it can be a useful tool for public health officials working to stop the spread of a contagious disease.
[ Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation's newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today's news, every day. ]
This article was originally published at The Conversation. The publication contributed the article to Live Science's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights. | general |
AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes Out For Now Amid Airbus Bribery Probe | Get exclusive stories and unlimited access to Skift.com news
Access every online Skift event live or on demand
Access exclusive travel research, data insights, and surveys
Free stories left to read
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 25/month)
Brian Sumers and Xinyi Liang-Pholsena, Skift
February 3rd, 2020 at 2:40 PM EST
There's always some give-and-take whenever any customer places a big order for anything. But did Airbus go too far to try to sway AirAsia? And what will this mean for CEO Tony Fernandes ' grand digital plans?
Brian Sumers and Xinyi Liang-Pholsena, Skift
AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes, one of the world’ s most iconic airline entrepreneurs, will step aside from the company for at least two months after reports surfaced he and another top executive may have accepted a bribe from Airbus in exchange for major aircraft orders.
The news comes four days after Airbus entered into deferred prosecution agreements with regulators in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France over allegations the plane maker bribed its way into winning orders in many countries. In all, Airbus agreed last week to pay about $ 4 billion to settle many of the allegations.
Some of the juiciest allegations in the investigation involve AirAsia Group, which Fernandes and business partner Kamarudin Meranun bought in 2001. The duo has been fantastically successful, turning what was once a fledgling airline into a regional powerhouse.
According to prosecutors in the United Kingdom, two executives — thought to be Fernandes and Meranun, now the company’ s chairman — accepted money from Airbus to sponsor a sports team they owned.
In a statement, Air Asia acknowledged the agreement but denied the sponsorship was linked to any aircraft order.
“ The involvement of Airbus in the sponsorship of the sports team was a well-known and widely publicized matter bringing branding and other benefits to Airbus, ” the statement said. It continued, “ AirAsia vigorously rejects and denies any and all allegations of wrongdoing.
The Securities Commission Malaysia said in a statement that it will examine the allegations and review all available evidence to determine if there is any breach of securities laws. Under s317A of the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007, a director of a public listed company who does anything with the intention of causing wrongful loss to the company or its related corporation commits an offense which is punishable with imprisonment and fine.
As of 3 p.m. Monday in New York, Feb. 3, AirAsia Group stock took a 10.49 percent dip.
The bribery allegations against AirAsia could not come at a worst time as airlines in the region grapple with the coronavirus outbreak in Asia. Travel demand to China has taken a massive hit amid the raft of travel restrictions imposed on travelers from China. The Malaysia-based airline has canceled all flights in and out of Wuhan and has suspended some services to and from mainland China until February 29.
And with AirAsia’ s head honcho embroiled in this latest scandal, it looks like the airline’ s digital transformation plans will be taking a backseat for now.
UPDATE: This story was updated to include the additional comment of the Securities Commission Malaysia on AirAsia Group and the airline’ s stock information.
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 30/month)
Brian Sumers and Xinyi Liang-Pholsena, Skift
February 3rd, 2020 at 2:40 PM EST
Tags: air asia, airbus, tony fernandes
Photo credit: Air Asia Group CEO Tony Fernandes is stepping down, temporarily, as leader of the company. Air Asia Group
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 25/month) | general |
If Bernie Sanders wins Iowa Monday and gains momentum, that would spook the stock market | Iowa's Democratic presidential caucuses Monday are a step toward narrowing the far-flung field of candidates, and investors could start getting worried if polls prove correct and Bernie Sanders emerges as the winner.
Iowa is just the first ballot, but a win by the Vermont senator could give him more momentum, and that certainly could get the market's attention. Analysts do not expect a sell-off just based on an Iowa win for Sanders, but if he begins to look like the nominee in more races, volatility could increase. New Hampshire's primary is the following week, and Sanders won there in 2016.
`` I think the market really has run up for a lot of reasons, but they clearly have been pricing in a Trump re-election, '' said Lori Calvasina, chief U.S.equity strategist at RBC. `` The betting markets are sending a positive signal on Sanders right now. The big sort of shift in trend is Bernie. ''
Still, strategists say the left-leaning candidate would have a hard time beating President Donald Trump if he were the party nominee, but the fear is there's now some level of risk that he could. Sanders is viewed as negative for the stock market, and he is in favor of significantly raising taxes on individuals and companies.
Sanders had once been seen as a long shot, but he is now leading former Vice President Joseph Biden in Iowa polls by an average 24.2% to 20.2%, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Sanders is also leading Biden by a wider average 9.5 percentage points in polls in his neighboring state of New Hampshire.
`` Anybody who has won two of the first three, they 've all gone on '' to be the nominee, said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas.
Read more: Voters largely favor capitalism over socialism amid Sanders ' rise
Biden is leading in the third and fourth states scheduled to hold votes. He leads by 5.7 percentage points on average in Nevada polls ahead of its Democratic presidential caucuses Feb. 22, and is ahead in the Feb. 29 vote in South Carolina, where RealClearPolitics.com puts him up by an average 17 percentage points. A much anticipated final poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa was not released over the weekend, due to a potential error.
`` Iowa has picked the last four Democratic nominees. The early states, which are often disregarded as not important, create momentum for winners and really start to hurt the losers, '' Clifton said.
This year, there is an early `` Super Tuesday '' of primaries on March 3 in more than a dozen states, including Texas, North Carolina and California, a key state where Sanders now has a large lead. Those states hold 42% of the delegates, but Clifton said Iowa can be pivotal and provide important early momentum for candidates. He said the next pre-caucus poll on Saturday by the Des Moines Register will be important.
`` This is why the volatility is around February, and not March. Super Tuesday has many investors making that bet, '' he said. `` They're betting on March. You want to make your bet around February because there's a lack of realization that Bernie could win the nomination, and he's going to get a fresh bout of momentum if he wins those first states. ''
There has been trading in weekly options betting that the market this week would see elevated volatility in the S & P 500 around the caucuses. There's also been a trade around Super Tuesday March 3, but the scare over the rapidly spreading coronavirus has brought its own hedging.
`` There was a volatility premium built into next Wednesday. People would much rather buy options that incorporate the election-related events. Weekly options go out three months. March 6 options were listed about a month ago. That has Super Tuesday in it, '' said Patrick Kernan, CEO of Cardinal Capital, which trades S & P options. `` Those options were significantly more expensive, puts and calls, relative to the options that expired right before it at the end of February. ''
Health-care stocks have also been hit in part because of the potential rise of Sanders. Calvasina said normally with a health scare, those stocks should be doing well, but they have been trading lower, particularly managed care. The S & P health-care sector was one of last week's worst performers, down 3.3%.
`` That's been his signature issue … I think people really identify him with the health-care policy, '' said Calvasina. `` There's no virus-related reason that health-care stocks should be down this week, these large-cap, policy sensitive names. ''
Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are the most progressive and both favor `` Medicare for All. '' Both also would ban fracking, or the shale drilling that has taken the U.S. from a major importer of oil to an exporter and the biggest producer in the world.
`` Their policies are clearly not pro-market. Regardless of what the odds might be in the general election, they have a puncher's chance, '' said Ed Keon, chief market strategist at QMA.
Biden wants to preserve and expand upon Obamacare, with a private insurance option. He has also supported fracking, which is important to voters in key states such as Pennsylvania and Texas.
The coronavirus has dominated this past week's trading, and bond strategists say the sharp decline in yields has been the direct result of fears the virus will slow the world economy. But they also say investors could get increasingly nervous about the Democratic primaries and there are some investors using bonds as a safety play against election-related volatility.
`` It's a reason not to push rates higher. It's a reason you're willing to be neutral, '' said Jon Hill, BMO senior rate strategist.
In the Iowa polls, Warren is fourth with 15.6%, behind former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, at 16.4%, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is averaging 8.6% in Iowa's polls.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is not in the early state races, and only shows up in time for Super Tuesday. Some strategists see Bloomberg siphoning off Biden supporters, helping Sanders, and he could become more high-profile nationally after his big Superbowl ad buy Sunday.
`` Bloomberg has set up for Bernie winning and Biden crashing. If that scenario takes place, then it would be him and Bernie Sanders one on one in the back end of the states. It's never been done. It wouldn't be easy. He's getting 7% of the vote right now, '' Clifton said. `` But he's the only one increasing in the polls. ''
Cornerstone Macro's Andy Laperriere said even though Sanders looks to be in the lead in Iowa, the situation is fluid and it's hard to tell what the outcome will be. `` What looks like is happening is the progressive vote is coalescing around Sanders and feeling like he's got at least as good a chance as anybody else, '' said Laperriere, who heads U.S. policy at Cornerstone.
Laperriere said an analysis on FiveThirtyEight politics shows a win in Iowa could give a big boost to either candidate but would push Biden closer to being the nominee. The analysis shows Biden doubling his odds to 80%, while the odds for Sanders would get a boost to 61% on an Iowa win.
`` I think investor perceptions will do something similar to that. The market will be shifting its odds pretty dramatically about who will be the Democratic nominee, '' Laperriere said. `` Sanders is much more of a risk to the market, but on the other hand, the perception is the odds of him beating Trump are low. Biden is less of a risk for the market, but the odds of him beating Trump are higher. ''
Tom Block, Washington analyst at Fundstrat, said Iowa could determine which of party's progressive candidates will be left standing.
`` It appears Sanders is gaining momentum, and Elizabeth Warren is losing momentum. I think Iowa can be the defining moment for the race within the race, '' he said. `` If Joe Biden gets wiped out in Iowa that would be a negative for him, but if he's competitive and they all bunch together, I think he can survive for another day. ''
Block said Bloomberg only comes into the race seriously if Biden falters. Markets see the billionaire Bloomberg as much more market-friendly than Sanders or Warren.
`` The landscape has significantly changed. You never before had a Super Tuesday like this that has California, Texas and North Carolina. History is changing with this year's primary schedule, '' Block said. `` I think the biggest outcome of these early first primaries is going to be deciding whether Bernie has captured the progressive vote, and what is Elizabeth Warren's argument for staying in the race. ''
Investors may find Sanders ' tax proposals less appealing than those of Warren. According to Cornerstone Macro's analysis, Sanders would push the highest individual tax rate to 52% while other Democrats would raise it to 39.6%, from the current 37%. Under Sanders ' plan, the highest marginal tax rate would be 69.2%, compared with Warren's 53.5%. | business |
Hong Kong recession deepens as Q4 GDP shrinks 0.4% quarter on quarter | The Hong Kong economy's first recession in a decade deepened in the fourth quarter of last year, weighed down by often violent anti-government protests and the U.S.-China trade war, advanced estimates showed on Monday.
The economy shrank by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October-December from the previous quarter, versus a revised 3.0% in July-September. On an annual basis, the economy contracted 2.9%, compared with a revised 2.8% in the third quarter.
For the whole of 2019, real gross domestic product contracted by 1.2%, the first annual decline since 2009.
Months of unrest in Hong Kong last year plunged the financial and trading hub into its worst crisis since it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997.
Analysts predict an even worse first quarter in 2020, as measures to restrict cross-border mobility to fight the spread of a new coronavirus which originated in mainland China deal a further blow to tourism, retail and other business. | business |
Cramer's lightning round: I 'm blessing Avita Medical as a spec | Micron Technology: `` I happen to like Micron. I think that it could still go down a little bit '' on coronavirus fears. `` I would buy some more at $ 49, but I 'd hold on to what you have. ''
Enphase Energy: `` I think you got a good one. It's one of the few battery suggestions I am ever going to tell you to buy, but remember because you're younger it is speculative and it's up a great deal, but it does have a sound concept. ''
Wingstop: `` Wingstop's a winner. I 've liked it for a very long time. ''
Okta: `` Cybersecurity and identifiers are never going to go out of fashion... and that's why we like that stock so much and it remains a Cramer-family fave. ''
Avita Medical: `` It's spec, '' but a lot of drug companies `` need something that grows like this, so I 'm going to bless it. But it's a spec. ''
Store Capital: `` Not investing in these real estate trusts right now, although I 'm doing a lot of work on Simon Property Group and, believe it or not, SPG looks like a big winner. ''
Morgan Stanley: `` MS is down a quick 4 points. I think you should be a buyer right here. I like that one. ''
Disclaimer
Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram
Questions, comments, suggestions for the `` Mad Money '' website? madcap @ cnbc.com | business |
Jim Cramer: Buying Friday's coronavirus sell-off is a 'mistake ' | CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday said he is anticipating another market sell-off and that investors should refrain from putting more money to work in stocks.
The major averages managed to rebound during the session after Friday's drop, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 600 points on heightened fears of the coronavirus ' spread worldwide. Friday's sell-off wiped out the index's gains from the start of the year.
`` I don't want you to jump the gun, people. Let's wait for a real dip, the kind we haven't had yet, before we get more bullish on this market, '' the `` Mad Money '' host said. `` I 'm betting that another shoe will drop on this coronavirus outbreak, and I think it might be a mistake to buy before that happens. ''
The Dow climbed more than 370 points during the trading day before finishing up nearly 144 points to 28,399.81 at the close. Cramer said people were too eager to get back into the market.
An investment in stocks here is a bet on a vaccine, cure or effective quarantine to address the spreading disease that is impacting the global economy, Cramer said. The host suggested it's better to wait until seeing if that is possible before putting more money into stocks.
In the meantime, investors should be building a `` much higher cash reserve than normal. ''
Cramer is waiting for more bad news to come about the coronavirus, and he wants to mull the outcome of Monday's Iowa Democratic caucuses.
`` I want to wait until we have at least a mid-single-digit decline in the stock market, '' Cramer said. `` We sold a lot for my charitable trust, [ and ] I feel good about those sales. I 'm ready to buy it back when things settle down. ''
Disclaimer
Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - Instagram
Questions, comments, suggestions for the `` Mad Money '' website? madcap @ cnbc.com | business |
Russia may deport any foreigners with coronavirus, PM Mishustin says | Foreigners could be deported from Russia if they test positive for the coronavirus, the prime minister said Monday, according to country's media outlets.
Newly appointed Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said a national plan to prevent the spread of the infection in Russia has been signed.
`` It will allow us to deport foreigners if they are diagnosed with this disease and introduce special restrictions, including isolation and quarantine, '' the prime minister said in comments reported by the Tass news agency and Interfax.
Mishustin added that Russia has `` all the necessary medications, protective means to counter the coronavirus spread. ''
His comments about possible deportation were also reported by The Associated Press and Reuters. Tass later dropped any mention of possible deportations. In a subsequent report, Tass said that Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova's office announced that all foreigners diagnosed with coronavirus in Russia will undergo mandatory treatment until they are cured and then can decide whether to stay in the country or leave.
On Sunday, Mishustin signed a decree that put the virus, known formally as the `` novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, '' in the list of diseases posing a threat to citizens, Tass reported. It said that until recently the list, compiled in 2004, included `` 15 diseases such as HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, Siberian plague, cholera and plague. ''
Russia reportedly plans to start evacuating its citizens from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak originated, on Monday. More than 600 Russians are in the Chinese city, according to a Reuters report citing Russia's deputy prime minister.
Russia reported its first two coronavirus cases on Friday, two Chinese citizens that it said have been isolated. The country also closed most of its entry points along its border with China last week and has temporarily suspended issuing electronic visas to Chinese nationals. The prime minister announced Monday that the government will postpone its Sochi Economic Forum, due to be held later in February, as a precaution.
The coronavirus continues to spread. China's National Health Commission has reported an additional 57 deaths and 2,829 new confirmed cases as of the end of Sunday. That brings the country's total to 361 deaths and 17,205 confirmed cases.
China's foreign ministry said Monday that some countries, especially the U.S., have overreacted to the outbreak, according to Reuters. Last week, President Donald Trump signed an order for the U.S. to deny entry to any foreign nationals who have traveled in China within the past two weeks.
—CNBC's Weizhen Tan, Evelyn Cheng and Christine Wang contributed reporting to this story. | business |
Hong Kong closes more borders to Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, as China death toll overtakes SARS | Since its outbreak in December, more than 360 people have died of the disease in China, the country's health authorities said Monday. The total number of cases in mainland China stood at 17,205 as of Sunday evening, an increase of over 2,800 on the previous day, or almost 20%.
The 2003 outbreak of SARS -- another coronavirus strand -- infected 5,327 people in mainland China, with 349 deaths. There were 8,098 confirmed cases of SARS worldwide from November 2002 to July 2003, with 774 deaths globally.
The first death from the virus outside China was confirmed over the weekend. Philippine health officials said that a 44-year-old Chinese man died Saturday after flying into the country from Wuhan.
So far, more than 180 cases have been reported outside of China -- the majority of them with a direct link to the country -- across more than 25 countries and territories worldwide. Many countries have begun closing their borders to visitors from China, with major airlines canceling flights to and from the country.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam on Monday announced new border closures over the Wuhan virus, amid intense public pressure to stop anyone crossing into the city from mainland China. Lam said further measures were being taken `` to ensure the control of the boundary control points to reduce people movement across the border, '' but fell short of a complete sealing off of the city.
Germany confirmed its 10th case on Sunday, and there were also new cases reported in South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Macao and Hong Kong. The United States, Australia and New Zealand have all announced that they will not allow foreign nationals who have traveled from or transited through China to enter. Nationals from those countries will face mandatory quarantine on arrival.
The G7 nations will hold a joint telephone conference to discuss how to deal with the coronavirus outbreak, German Health Minister Jens Spahn announced after talking with his American counterpart Alex Azar on Sunday.
Economic pain
In China, Monday is supposed to be the first day back at work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday ended on February 2.
However much of the country will not be returning, with multiple local authorities extending the break in an attempt to avoid further spread of the virus. Hubei, the central Chinese province of which Wuhan is the capital, will lengthen its holiday by an `` appropriate extent, '' authorities said Saturday, while Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and the manufacturing provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang will also reportedly remain on holiday until at least next week.
With much of China's economic heartland still closed, concerns are growing over the impact to the Chinese economy. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets -- which have been closed since January 24 -- plunged by around 10% on opening Monday.
The People's Bank of China said Sunday it would inject 1.2 trillion yuan ( $ 173 billion) into the Chinese markets in order to ensure `` reasonably ample liquidity '' in the banking system and keep currency markets stable.
The net amount of liquidity being injected into the markets will be much lower, however. According to Reuters calculations using central bank data, more than 1 trillion yuan worth of other short-term bond sales will mature Monday. That brings the net amount of cash flooding into the markets down to 150 billion yuan ( $ 21.4 billion).
State news agency Xinhua on Monday published a defiant commentary headlined `` Chinese economy resilient enough to counter virus shock. ''
`` The epidemic will eventually come to an end, just like the winter will fade away. The negative implications of the virus on the Chinese economy will be short-lived, and the economic fundamentals are solid enough to withstand its blow, '' Xinhua said. `` Doomsayers take this chance to hype again the China-collapse theory. But seasoned observers disagree. ''
It quoted a former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank saying that while the economic impact in the first quarter will likely be big, perhaps driving nationwide annual growth down a percentage point, `` it will be substantially offset by above-the-trend growth in the rest of the year if the epidemic can be contained soon. ''
Fight to control the virus
In Wuhan itself, the epicenter of the virus outbreak where most of the deaths have been reported, there was a glimmer of hope Monday, as the first of two purpose-built hospitals opened for business.
The hospitals, built in about a week by thousands of workers on round-the-clock shifts and based on a similar plan used during the 2003 SARS outbreak, will be run by People's Liberation Army medical personnel.
They will add thousands of extra beds to Wuhan's extremely strained medical system. Thousands of health workers, including PLA medics, have also been dispatched to help out in ordinary hospitals in the city and other parts of Hubei.
But while Wuhan should be seeing some additional capacity Monday, Hong Kong will be seeing the opposite. Health care workers in the semi-autonomous Chinese city began a five-day strike on Monday over what they see as the failure of the city's government to fully shut the border with China. They are demanding a full border closure and greater support from the government.
In announcing the new border closures, Lam said further measures were being taken `` to ensure the control of the boundary control points to reduce people movement across the border, '' but fell short of completely sealing off the city.
Lam said the main land borders at Lo Wu and Lok Ma Chau would shut as of midnight tonight, as would the Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal.
That will leave all but three border crossings between Hong Kong and mainland China closed. Those which remain open are the city's international airport, the Shenzhen Bay border and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge.
There is widespread fear in Hong Kong -- where 15 coronavirus cases have been confirmed so far -- of a repeat of SARS, which infected more than 1,700 people and killed 286 in 2003.
Most front line medical workers will not strike, their unions said, in order to continue serving the public, but backroom and support staff will walk out.
Studying infection
Many countries have begun evacuating their citizens out of the worst hit areas of Hubei, while other nations, in addition to closing their borders to all visitors from China, are ordering mandatory quarantines of nationals returning home.
Major airlines -- including British Airways, American Airlines, Air Canada and Lufthansa -- have canceled or slashed routes to China for the foreseeable future.
Much of the concern is driven by the lack of a confirmed cure or treatment protocol for the virus, which appears to be far more contagious -- though not as deadly -- as SARS. About 10% of SARS cases resulted in death, while the toll from Wuhan coronavirus cases stands at about 2%.
On Sunday, doctors in Thailand said they had successfully treated one Wuhan coronavirus patient with a combination of antiviral drugs.
Dr. Kriangsak Atipornwanich, a doctor at Rajavithi Hospital in Bangkok, said at a Ministry of Health news conference that he had treated a 71-year-old woman patient from China with a combination of drugs used in HIV and flu treatments. He said the patient had previously been treated only with anti-HIV drugs.
Officials at the news conference said the latest lab test showed there was no trace of the virus in the patient's respiratory system.
Hospitals in Beijing have previously reported using HIV drugs to treat coronavirus patients, though it is unclear if they have been successful.
With some apparent good news came another worrying development, however. Scientists in China discovered over the weekend that fecal samples from patients infected with the Wuhan coronavirus tested positive for the pathogen.
This means it is highly possible the virus can exist in and spread through contaminated fecal matter. Previously it had been thought the virus mainly spread through droplets emitted when a person coughs or sneezes, or through other direct contact.
One of the major SARS outbreaks during the 2003 epidemic was in the Hong Kong housing estate of Amoy Gardens. There, the virus is believed to have spread `` via aerosolized fecal matter through the internal sewer system, '' according to a report by the US National Institute of Medicine. | business |
Apple stock falls from post-earnings high on fears of coronavirus impact | Apple's stock has fallen nearly 5% from its all-time high of $ 324.34 per share after a strong earnings report last week as investors worried how the spread of the coronavirus could impact the business.
The stock closed down 0.2% at $ 308.66 per share Monday afternoon. Its market cap still tops $ 1.3 trillion.
But persistent concerns over the spread of the coronavirus seem to have dampened some of the excitement over Apple's earnings beat Tuesday that sent the stock soaring the next day. China, an important market for Apple and a key manufacturing region, has been the epicenter of the outbreak, which the World Health Organization labeled a global health emergency.
Apple CEO Tim Cook gave a wider than typical range of guidance for the next quarter due to uncertainty caused by the coronavirus. Still, Cook said the company's `` Greater China '' segment, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, had returned to growth in the quarter that ended in December.
Cook said in the earnings call that some factories in China would remain closed until Feb. 10 as the government had recommended and the company had shut one store in the region and restricted employee travel.
On Wednesday, a key Apple analyst predicted the coronavirus outbreak could hurt supply and demand for new Apple products expected to launch in the first half of the year. TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a note to clients that he expects lowered smartphone shipments overall in the region and said factories that produce Apple products could face large-scale production risks and possible delays of launch. With limited employee travel, U.S.-based engineers may not be able to get to China to perform validation tests, for example. On Sunday, Kuo cut his Q1 2020 iPhone shipment forecast by 10%.
Kuo also said Apple's Face ID won't work with face masks commonly worn as a precaution to prevent infection from the virus. While Apple is working on a new fingerprint scanner, according to Kuo, those wearing masks will likely have a poorer experience with the devices in the meantime.
— CNBC's Kif Leswing contributed to this report.
Subscribe to CNBC on YouTube.
WATCH: Tech firms step up efforts to fight coronavirus misinformation | business |
Wall Street braces for more volatility ahead: 'It could go up huge or it could go down huge ' | Stocks have whipsawed investors more in the past two weeks than they have since early October, and it's likely that type of volatile trading will continue.
Even with Monday's rally, analysts were skeptical that the market would be able to recover its bullish composure. The Dow was up as much as 374 points, but a round of coronavirus-related headlines deflated its gains in late morning trading. In early afternoon trading, the Dow was more than 225 points off the high.
`` The market is a wild animal right now, '' said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG. `` It could go up huge or it could go down huge, but the key is how do stocks react to the massive amount of incoming news over the next several days. ''
Emanuel says he's sticking to a year-end target of has a target of 3,450, but he said it's possible stocks could dip to his downside target of 3,070 in a sell-off. Even before investors became aware of the coronavirus, Emanuel said he had expected the market to get more volatile, just because it had become so overbought.
In the past two weeks, the S & P 500 has had its first moves of more than 1%, both lower and higher, since early October.
The Iowa caucuses Monday could also create more volatility, if progressive candidate Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders wins and then picks up momentum in other states. Sanders is leading in the polls in Iowa, and is also ahead in New Hampshire, which holds its primary next week.
`` The impeachment and the election have not been factors in the market so far. That could begin to change tonight, '' said Art Cashin, head of floor operations at UBS. `` If the market begins to feel [ Sanders ] is going to make headway in the first three states, things could begin to change. ''
It's too soon to say whether Sanders will get the Democratic nomination, but analysts say he would be a negative force for markets, based on his tax, health care and other policies. Analysts said it's likely President Donald Trump would beat Sanders, who is seen as far more negative for the market than more moderate, former Vice President Joseph Biden, who had previously been in the lead in Iowa.
`` Our presumption is if the moderates do better than expected versus the progressives that should be market positive, '' said Emanuel. `` We are not so presumptions to know how the market is going to respond right now because you have this exogenous factor—the coronavirus. ''
The Center for Disease Control reported an 11th confirmed U.S. case in California Monday, and there were news reports that it was preparing for `` pandemic. '' That headline and an earlier report that Carnival confirmed one of its passengers tested positive in Hong Kong for coronavirus, rattled stocks.
Goldman Sachs economists Monday said they expect coronavirus outbreak to reduce Chinese GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 by 1.6 percentage points, and global growth could be impacted by 1 percentage point. Then growth is expected to rebound, and global growth would be hit by 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points for the year.
`` Nobody is going to be immune from a sharp drop in the Chinese economy, '' said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. It `` is infecting the economy... at a time when things were fragile to begin with. ''
Boockvar said the morning's rally was too strong a bounce back reaction, after Friday's sell-off.
But Emanuel expects that type of see-saw market, with whippy action. `` With all this incoming news, when the market becomes more volatile, as we believe it will become, you could get a day's worth of price action in 30 minutes, several times a day, '' said Emanuel.
Morgan Stanley analysts, in a note, said investors should expect more of a correction, but not that much more. `` We continue to think this correction will be contained to 5 percent in the S & P 500, '' the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. `` Our large cap defensive bias has worked well this year and we think that continues until 10 year Treasury yields bottom which appear on track to challenge the all time lows at 1.35%. The bottom line is we think there is strong support at 3100 on the S & P 500 both technically and from a valuation standpoint. ''
But others sounded more negative, including Mohamed El-Erian, who warned investors not to buy dips like they would have done prior to the spread of the virus, now affecting about 17,500 people. El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, said on CNBC Monday that the outbreak is going to take a major toll on the Chinese economy and hurt global growth.
Widely watched hedge fund investor David Tepper told CNBC's Jim Cramer, in an interview for TheStreet that the coronavirus has `` ruined the environment '' for stocks that was in place a few weeks ago. Tepper, who runs Appalloosa Management, had told CNBC two weeks ago that he thought the market would keep climbing, saying `` I love riding a horse that's running. ''
On a technical basis, Instinet's Frank Cappelleri says the next few days ' market action could help decide how bearish the market's tone has become.
`` For months, you didn't have any type of bearish pattern pop up much less follow through, '' said Cappelleri, Instinet executive director. That changed in the past two weeks with the more than 3.7% peak to trough decline in the S & P 500.
If the market does not continue moving higher and return to its highs, there could be a steeper pullback, due to a bearish setup. The downside target would be 3,130.
`` A lot has to do with how this initial lift works out today, '' he said. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,250 in afternoon trading. `` We still have to be concerned if the next lift is a lower high, '' which would be negative, he said. `` We're so used to having any pullback being 2 to 4%. ''
Emanuel said it might have been a healthier reaction if stocks continued lower after Friday's big sell-off and the expected 7.8% decline in Shanghai, when its market reopened early Monday.
`` You really wanted a much more cathartic event. Obviously, you're starting to price in Fed rate moves this year, '' said Emanuel, adding he does not expect any moves from the Fed in 2020. But the market is responding to the idea of easier central banks, including the People's Bank of China.
Source: Instinet | business |
Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed | Germans repatriated from Wuhan, China, arrive at an army barracks on 1 February to be examined for signs of infection with the new coronavirus.
By Kai KupferschmidtFeb. 3, 2020, 5:30 PM
A paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine ( NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus made many headlines because it seemed to confirm what public health experts feared: that someone who has no symptoms from infection with the virus, named 2019-nCoV, can still transmit it to others. That might make controlling the virus much harder.
Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “ There’ s no doubt after reading [ the NEJM ] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring, ” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “ This study lays the question to rest. ”
But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute ( RKI), the German government’ s public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper.
The letter in NEJM described a cluster of infections that began after a businesswoman from Shanghai visited a company near Munich on 20 and 21 January, where she had a meeting with the first of four people who later fell ill. Crucially, she wasn’ t sick at the time: “ During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, ” the authors wrote. “ The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. ”
But the researchers didn’ t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “ They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms. ” Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. ( An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)
Hoelscher was not on the call, he says. “ I asked the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority whether the information from that phone conversation called for a correction and I was told that is not the case, ” he says. ( The Bavarian ministry of health, of which the agency is part, has not responded to a request for information from ScienceInsider.) But RKI disagreed. The agency’ s spokesperson confirms that a letter about the error has been submitted to NEJM. RKI also informed the World Health Organization ( WHO) and European partner agencies about the new information.
“ I feel bad about how this went, but I don’ t think anybody is at fault here, ” says virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité University Hospital in Berlin, who did the lab work for the study and is one of its authors. “ Apparently the woman could not be reached at first and people felt this had to be communicated quickly. ”
Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says calling a case asymptomatic without talking to the person is problematic. “ In retrospect, it sounds like this was a poor choice, ” he says. However, “ In an emergency setting, it’ s often not possible to talk to all the people, ” he adds. “ I’ m assuming that this was an overstretched group trying to get out their best idea of what the truth was quickly rather than somebody trying to be careless. ”
The Public Health Agency of Sweden reacted less charitably. “ The sources that claimed that the coronavirus would infect during the incubation period lack scientific support for this analysis in their articles, ” says a document with frequently asked questions the agency posted on its website yesterday. “ This applies, among other things, to an article in [ NEJM ] that has subsequently proven to contain major flaws and errors. ” Even if the patient’ s symptoms were unspecific, it wasn’ t an asymptomatic infection, says Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “ Asymptomatic means no symptoms, zero. It means you feel fine. We have to be careful with our words. ”
Hoelscher agrees that the paper should have been clearer about the origin of the information about the woman’ s health. “ If I was writing this today, I would phrase that differently, ” he says. The need to share information as fast as possible, along with NEJM’ s push to publish early, created a lot of pressure, he says.
Given how fast data are coming out amid the growing global crisis, it’ s good to read even peer-reviewed papers with some extra caution at the moment, Lipsitch says: “ I think peer review is lighter in the middle of an epidemic than it is at normal speed, and also the quality of the data going into the papers is necessarily more uncertain. ”
The fact that the paper got it wrong doesn’ t mean transmission from asymptomatic people doesn’ t occur. Fauci, for one, still believes it does. `` This evening I telephoned one of my colleagues in China who is a highly respected infectious diseases scientist and health official, '' he says. `` He said that he is convinced that there is asymptomatic infection and that some asymptomatic people are transmitting infection. '' But even if they do, asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote in a situation report on Saturday. “ More data may come out soon. We will just have to wait, ” Lipsitch says.
The German cluster does reveal another interesting aspect about the new virus, Drosten says. So far most attention has gone to patients who get seriously ill, but all four cases in Germany had a very mild infection. That may be true for many more patients, Drosten says, which may help the virus spread. “ There is increasingly the sense that patients may just experience mild cold symptoms, while already shedding the virus, ” he says. “ Those are not symptoms that lead people to stay at home. ” | science |
Japanese Prime Minister Doesn't Expect Virus to Affect Tokyo Olympics | Get exclusive stories and unlimited access to Skift.com news
Access exclusive travel research, data insights, and surveys
Associated Press
February 3rd, 2020 at 9:00 AM EST
Japan has doubled down on using international sporting events like the forthcoming Olympic Games as a way to turbocharge its tourism industry. It's clear from the prime minister's remarks on Monday that it doesn't expect the coronavirus to get in the way of that.
Rosie Spinks
Concern about the spreading coronavirus outbreak in China and its impact on this year’ s Tokyo Olympics reached Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday.
Abe was asked about the virus by an opposition lawmaker but he brushed aside worries.
“ We will respond appropriately, ” Abe said, speaking in Japanese, “ while closely cooperating with the World Health Organization and other international organizations so that we can proceed with the preparations without letting it affect the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics. ”
Japan has not reported any fatalities from the outbreak, while China has reported more than 300 deaths from the virus and more than 17,000 cases.
The Olympics open July 24.
Tokyo organizers and the International Olympic Committee have said there are no plans to cancel or postpone the Olympics. Tokyo Governor Yurkio Koike has urged vigilance said there will be “ regrets ” if there isn’ t a maximum effort made.
Olympic Minister Seiko Hashimoto said Tokyo organizers and representatives from local municipalities would meet next week to discuss measures against the virus.
The modern Olympics, dating from 1896, have been called off during wartime and faced boycotts in 1980 and 1984. They have evolved in the last few decades into a multi-billion dollar event with massive investments from television and sponsors.
About 11,000 athletes will attend the Olympics. Many of them still need to qualify and could face qualifying events canceled or postponed if the virus continues to spread outside China.
This article was written by The Associated Press from The Associated Press and was legally licensed through the NewsCred publisher network. Please direct all licensing questions to [ email protected ].
Subscribe to Skift Pro to get unlimited access to stories like these ( $ 30/month) | general |
Japan firms limit customer contact, aiming to prevent spread of deadly coronavirus | A number of companies across Japan have disclosed in turn moves to try and prevent further spread of 2019-nCoV, the new coronavirus that originated in China, with the postponement of celebrity meet-and-greet events and suspension of services such as makeup application at cosmetics stores.
Oriental Land Co., operator of Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks in Urayasu, Chiba Prefecture, decided Friday to reduce visitor contact with some costumed characters until further notice. The characters will also be told not to stay too long in any one place, the company said.
Signs were put up on a pedestrian bridge that links Tokyo Disneyland and its closest train station, encouraging entrants to use hand sanitizer stations set up inside the park.
Haruna Masaoka, 16, a first-year high school student from Saitama Prefecture, said people were still lining up in front of characters at Tokyo DisneySea to take photos. “ I was surprised to see the crew at the attractions wearing masks, ” she said.
Regarding the exceptionally restrictive conditions, Twitter users grumbled that “ it couldn’ t be helped ” and that while they didn’ t want to lose the opportunity to get close to the characters, they also didn’ t want guests or park staff to get sick.
On Thursday, idol group AKB48 postponed a meet-and-greet in Osaka that had been scheduled for Saturday. “ We made the decision by giving maximum priority to maintaining the health of our guests and the group members, ” the organizer of the event said.
On Saturday, talent agency Johnny & Associates wrote on its website that all the events planned in February and March for Sixtones and Snow Man, two boy bands which debuted on the same day in January, would be postponed.
The two groups had been due to host special meet-and-greet events in Sapporo, Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka for people who had purchased their debut singles and applied for the chance to attend. Notices revealing the lucky winners have also been delayed, and the new tour schedule will be announced later on the company’ s event website, Johnny’ s said.
Cosmetics giant Kose Corp. announced Friday that its makeup service and any other services requiring direct contact between customers and staff in stores would be suspended until further notice. Kose staff are also expected to wear masks and disinfect their hands before and after attending to customers.
At the Akita Dog Visitor Center tourist attraction in Odate, Akita prefecture, petting dogs has been banned since Thursday. A staff member stated that this was due to uncertainty over whether dogs can become infected. | tech |
Oil falls as coronavirus hits demand, OPEC+ considers deeper cuts | Oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday, dragged down by concern over demand in China after the coronavirus breakout, though the possibility of deeper crude output cuts by OPEC and its allies offered some price support.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $ 1.42, or 2.8%, to trade at $ 50.13, its lowest level since Jan. 2019. Earlier in the session WTI slid more than 3%, trading as low as $ 49.92 per barrel.
Brent crude was down $ 2.17, or 3.8%, trading at $ 54.43 per barrel, its lowest level since Jan. 3, 2019.
On the first day of trade in China after the New Year holiday, investors erased $ 393 billion from China's benchmark equities index, sold the yuan and dumped commodities as fears about the virus dominated markets.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said the spread of the coronavirus had hit oil demand and called for an effort to stabilise oil prices.
`` The oil market is under pressure and prices have dropped to under $ 60 a barrel and efforts must be made to balance it, '' he said.
Zanganeh also said that Iran would agree to the bringing forward of OPEC's next meeting meeting if the rest of the group agreed to production cuts.
OPEC and its allies, a group know as OPEC+, are considering a further cut in their oil output of 500,000 barrels per day ( bpd), two OPEC sources and a third industry source told Reuters.
The OPEC+ group is also considering holding a ministerial meeting over Feb. 14-15, one of the OPEC sources said, ahead of a previously scheduled meeting in March. `` The market needs assurances that the supply/demand equation remains in balance for prices to hit a floor. This suggests a commitment from OPEC not just to extend oil supply cuts, but even implement deeper ones beyond March, '' said FXTM analyst Hussein Sayed.
As the coronavirus outbreak hit fuel demand in China, Sinopec Corp, Asia's largest refiner, told its facilities to cut throughput this month by about 600,000 bpd.
Independent refineries in Shandong province, which collectively import about a fifth of China's crude, cut output by 30% to 50% in a little more than a week, executives and analysts said.
`` Clearly travel restrictions and the extended shutdown of large parts of the Chinese industrial sector have weighed on oil demand and this is reflected in the weakness that we are seeing in the ICE Brent time spreads, '' said ING analyst Warren Patterson.
The premium of the first-month Brent contract to the second-month contract narrowed to 9 cents a barrel on Monday, from 70 cents a month ago, indicating that traders are not concerned about supply tightness because of the demand impact of the coronavirus. | business |
Twitter is latest tech company to ban employee travel due to coronavirus | Twitter has banned all non-essential employee travel.
Twitter joins the ranks of Amazon and Google to halt nonessential employee travel due to the coronavirus threat.
This means the company is also pulling out of SXSW, where Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey was scheduled to give a keynote address, according to CNET's Erin Carson. In past years, Twitter has hosted speakers and events at its `` Twitter House '' at SXSW in Austin, Texas, which takes place in mid-March.
The company announced the ban yesterday in a blog post and said, `` We also have the responsibility of ensuring that the health and safety of our employees and partners is not compromised. We have continued to monitor the situation closely and are adjusting our internal policies to respond to this rapidly-evolving situation. On February 29, we informed our people and started notifying partners that we are suspending all non-critical business travel and events. ''
`` This policy is effective immediately and will continue until the World Health Organization or Centers for Disease Control deem it appropriate to step back from pandemic precautionary measures or when a vaccine becomes available. ''
Later on Monday, Twitter also announced that all employees are being `` strongly encouraged '' to work from home to lower the probability of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. `` We are operating out of an abundance of caution and the utmost dedication to keeping our Tweeps healthy, '' the company said in a statement.
SEE: Coronavirus having major effect on tech industry beyond supply chain delays ( free PDF) ( TechRepublic)
The travel ban is in place because, `` Our goal is to reduce the risk that anyone at Twitter might contract or inadvertently spread the virus. It is important that we take these proactive steps to protect ourselves and others and minimize the spread of COVID-19. ''
This happened the day after CNET reported Paul Singer, the billionaire founder of the activist fund Elliott Management, is preparing a plan to try to replace Jack Dorsey as CEO of Twitter, according to Bloomberg.
Another company, Ernst & Young has now restricted employee travel both domestically and internationally as well.
A spokesperson said, `` The safety and wellbeing of all EY people, clients and communities remains our primary concern. Consistent with advice from local governments and the World Health Organization ( WHO) on COVID-19 ( Coronavirus), we have asked EY people to defer all travel to those countries at highest risk – currently China, HK, Macau, Japan, South Korea and the restricted areas of Northern Italy. EY people returning from those locations are required to abide by governmental recommendations for a 14-day self-quarantine period. We are also placing limitations on non-essential international and domestic travel and asking our people to utilize alternative ways of connecting. We are monitoring this situation closely and will be updating guidance as developments warrant. ''
As a result of the coronavirus, numerous conferences and events have been cancelled as people fear being in contact with someone with COVID-19, which is the illness caused by coronavirus.
The Game Developers Conference ( GDC) is the latest to cancel, and Facebook cancelled F8 last week. Mobile World Congress was the first to bail, with its February 12 announcement that it was cancelling MWC in Barcelona. Others include F5 Agility 2020, Cisco Live Melbourne, Facebook's annual marketing conference, DEF CON China and the Tokyo Marathon.
SEE: Coronavirus: Business and technology in a pandemic ( ZDNet special feature)
The CDC now has just over 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US in 15 states and six deaths, with New Hampshire and Georgia the most recent states to join the battle against the virus. The novel coronavirus has resulted in more than 3,100 deaths worldwide. So far, there have been 90,000 global cases confirmed as coronavirus spreads around the world.
This article was updated on March 3, 2020.
We deliver the top business tech news stories about the companies, the people, and the products revolutionizing the planet. Delivered Daily | tech |
Kelly Evans: Back in the saddle! And Tesla's off to the races | Have you seen Tesla today?? The stock is up another 10% -- and just crossed the $ 700 mark for the first time. That's a 60% gain for the year -- and it's Feb 3. Tesla is now worth more than all the `` big three '' automakers ( GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler) -- combined.
We 'll have more on that on the show ( s) today, plus the latest on coronavirus and its macro impact. Dave Zervos will be joining me on set with his latest musings, and John Rutledge actually has a couple of Chinese stock picks he 'll explain as well.
And did you see the ISM manufacturing number this morning? Not too shabby! The survey jumped three points to a 50.9 reading, the best since July and back above the 50 level that indicates overall expansion in the sector. Especially after the terrible Chicago PMI number the other day, that's a bit of a relief.
All that's helping the market rebound from Friday's steep slide; the Dow's up about 300 points but there's still plenty of time before the close. I 'll see you at 1 p.m. -- yay! -- with the very latest.
Kelly
P.S. The Exchange is now a podcast! Click to subscribe.
Twitter: @ KellyCNBC
Instagram: @ realkellyevans | business |
China’ s seafood restaurants take hit from coronavirus outbreak, but remain enticing for investors |
Subscribe to SeafoodSource News
// <! [ CDATA [ var switchTo5x=true; // ] ] > // <! [ CDATA [ stLight.options ( { publisher: `` d264abd5-77a9-4dfd-bee5-44f5369b1275 '', doNotHash: false, doNotCopy: false, hashAddressBar: false }); // ] ] >
Share
The share price of a fish-focused Chinese restaurant chain that scored an oversubscribed initial public offering in January is taking a hit from the coronavirus outbreak.
Shares of Jiumaojiu International Holdings Ltd. dropped from HKD 10.00 ( USD 1.28, EUR 1.16) on January 20 to HKD 8.00 ( USD 1.02, EUR 0.93) on 3 February as investors worried about the impact of restaurant closures on the company’ s earnings.
Guangzhou, China-based Jiumaojiu, which raised USD 267 million ( EUR 241.5 million) from its IPO last month, operates the Tai Er chain, whose “ sauerkraut fish ” has been a big hit with younger consumers. The chain serves bass, carp, tilapia, and cod in casual dining settings located mostly in malls.
China’ s key Shanghai index dropped 8 percent on return to trading on Monday, 3 February, a sign of investor fear and gloom as the coronavirus spreads. Markets across Asia were also struggling as investors begin to factor in the impact of the coronavirus in future earnings. Their calculations will have to include the fallout from an expected drastic drop in China’ s outbound tourist numbers. Chinese tourists accounted for one-third of Japan’ s visitor total last year, and around one-third of Vietnam’ s total. It remains to be seen what the impact of a partial travel ban instituted over the Chinese New Year holiday had on retail and restaurant sales in the region, which normally sees robust sales, especially to Chinese tourists.
Despite the drop in its stock price, investors are likely to continue flocking to firms like Jiumaojiu, which target consumer growth in China, in contrast to many of the state-owned industrial stocks that dominate the stock market, which are focused on heavy industries suffering overcapacity and debt issues.
Operating 328 outlets nationwide, up from 141 in 2016 – most self-operated – Jiumaojiu offers a promising alternative to the export market for China’ s seafood producers, especially as it aims to triple its restaurant total with the money it raised from its IPO. Yet with a debt ratio of 38 percent, Jiumaojiu will need to pay down some of its leverage. Nonetheless, in the first half of 2019, the company grew revenues by 41.5 percent to CNY 1.23 billion ( USD 172 million, EUR 158.6 million) and raised profits by 87.6 percent to CNY 102 million ( USD 14.3 million, EUR 13.2 million).
Jiumaojiu has been latched onto by investors hungry for exposure to China’ s consumer markets, as has the Haidilao hotpot chain, which also uses tilapia and carp. Both are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. However, restaurant chains remain poorly represented on China’ s stock markets, in part due to the fragmented nature of the market. | general |
Why central banks may not be able to save China from the coronavirus | As China continues to reel from the spreading coronavirus, the world is looking for a familiar entity to swoop in and save the day: a central bank, in this case the People's Bank of China.
This time, though, even big rate cuts and other forms of easing may not be enough.
Central banks like the PBOC and its counterparts around the world — notably the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank – have been bailing out economies and financial markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Trillions in digital money printing along with bargain-basement interest rates have been the main weapons of choice to combat recurring episodes of slowness.
On cue, the PBOC on Monday announced a massive reverse repo program — swapping high-quality securities for cash — along with corresponding cuts in short-term rates.
In the virus case, though, policymakers are facing a major unknown that comes at a time when China's economy already was slowing. This may be one instance, then, where opening the spigots on monetary policy isn't enough.
`` We doubt that [ the steps announced Monday ] alone will be enough to put China's economy back on track, '' Hubert de Barochez, markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. `` The latest cuts will do nothing directly to offset the drag on economic activity from Chinese authorities ' response to the epidemic – notably travel bans and business closures. ''
`` And even in the most optimistic scenario – whereby the epidemic would be put under control rapidly and things would go back to normal soon – we think that the PBOC would need to cut rates again this year, '' he added.
That was a recurring theme as China's main stock index dropped nearly 8% Monday.
The PBOC said it would lop 10 basis points off its seven-day and 14-day reverse repo rates and inject 1.2 trillion of its local currency the renminbi through reverse repos. The moves did little to calm the selling in China, though U.S. stocks posted solid gains later in the day.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian, however, warned U.S. investors about buying into weakness considering the current circumstances.
`` The playbook has worked extremely well and it's one that I 've deployed, which is rely on central bank injections because the marketplace believes that liquidity can decouple us from fundamentals for a very long time, '' El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz, said during an interview on CNBC's `` Squawk Box. '' `` Everyone seems conditioned to behave this way. But it assumes the shock is temporary, containable and reversible. Those are phrases that are very hard to associate with coronavirus. ''
Central banks could be reaching a point where they are `` ineffective if not counterproductive '' in combating current issues, he said.
Amid the worries about longer-ranging impacts from the virus, Citigroup has cut its outlook for China GDP this year. But it also thinks that ultimately monetary policy and fiscal policy, in the form of deficit spending from China, will converge to limit the damage and `` arrest the downward spiral of economic activities, '' wrote Xiangrong Yu, senior China economist at Citi.
`` We expect the negative economic impact of 2019-nCoV to concentrate in the near-term, before the virus is contained and the government starts to repair the economy, '' Yu said. He, however, also cautioned that the first quarter could see growth as low as 4.8%, and, `` In light of the development of the situation over the past few days, we see the risk tilting more towards the downside. '' | business |
Hong Kong medical workers strike to urge border closure with mainland China to block virus | HONG KONG – Hundreds of medical workers went on strike in Hong Kong on Monday to demand the government shuts the border with mainland China to prevent the spread of a coronavirus and ease pressure on a stretched health sector.
The Hospital Authority Employees Alliance ( HAEA), which has about 18,000 members, said 2,400 workers took part in the strike, despite calls by the government for medical workers not to.
Hong Kong has 15 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, which emerged in central China in December and has killed more than 360 people there and sent jitters through global markets.
“ ( We) hope that these strikes will make the government respond to our five demands, most importantly to stop the spread of the coronavirus in Hong Kong, ” said medical worker Tracy Pui, who queued up with colleagues to sign a petition in support of the HAEA.
The demands are for the government to close the border with the mainland, facilitate the distribution of masks to the public, ensure that front-line medical workers have adequate supplies and protection, provide enough isolation wards for patients, and guarantee no reprisals for striking medical staff.
About 100 people rallied in the heart of Hong Kong’ s financial district in support of the health workers union, with some holding banners saying: “ Close Borders, Contain Epidemics. ”
The scare over the virus comes after months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong, triggered by what many residents see as unnecessary interference by Beijing in city affairs.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has suspended high-speed rail services to the mainland and cross-border ferries, but she has stopped short of closing the entire border, saying it would be “ inappropriate and impractical. ”
Panic-stricken residents have emptied shelves in major supermarkets in Hong Kong, stockpiling meat, rice and cleaning products as fears escalate over the coronavirus.
About 90 percent of the city’ s food is imported, with the bulk coming from the mainland, according to official data.
The coronavirus is expected to pile pressure on the city’ s economy, which sank into recession in the third quarter as the often violent protests scared away tourists and took a heavy toll on retailers.
Toy shop owner Lam Wa-yin, 45, said closing the border would intensify worries about supplies of staples.
“ They’ ve started rushing to buy supplies even before they fully close the borders, ” Lam said.
“ It’ ll get worse if it is fully closed. Especially food, people have been rushing to buy oil, salt and rice, not to mention the face masks. ”
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Coronavirus: des dizaines de millions de Chinois confinés chez eux | De notre correspondant à Pékin,
Comment passe-t-on le temps quand on ne peut pas sortir de chez soi? Par exemple, on ouvre la fenêtre et on crie quand on habite à Wuhan, épicentre de l’ épidémie. La capitale de la province du Hubbei a été la première ville à se retrouver confinée.
Emotional scenes from Wuhan! The scenes in Hospitals and Cities are giving the impression of doomsday but that’ s how people are encouraging each other❤️ What a Nation! # Wuhan # WuhanCoronaVirus # China # CoronaVirus # China # ChinaVirus # coronarvirus # ChineseNewYear # CoronaOutbreak pic.twitter.com/au4mNeT8dY
Depuis la semaine dernière, tous les soirs, des résidents de la capitale du Hubei lancent des « Wuhan Jia You! » ( « Allez Wuhan! ») repris à chaque balcon. Pour se mettre du baume au cœur, on en a bien besoin en ce moment. Sinon, on cherche des loisirs à faire en intérieur et on parle sur Tik Tok, sur WeChat et sur Weibo.
From beauty regimens to homemade carnival games, residents stuck at home found ways to entertain themselves amid the coronavirus lockdown pic.twitter.com/UR2PpoV5wW
Il y en qui improvisent des tennis avec des casseroles, d’ autres qui recomptent les grains de riz…
How do Chinese people kill time at home amid the coronavirus outbreak? Due to the # coronavirus outbreak, # SpringFestival vacation has been extended. Chinese people, bored from being stuck at home, are killing time in amusing ways. pic.twitter.com/WycZAl4RBK
On peut aussi imiter le bruit des feux artifices en crevant des ballons de baudruches, puisque c’ était le Nouvel an lunaire et que, partout, les festivités et les rassemblements ont été interdits pour éviter la propagation du virus. Il y ceux qui font semblant de pêcher dans leur aquarium. On peut aussi imiter la danse du lion avec une bassine sur la tête: ça aussi, c’ était pour le Nouvel an lunaire. D’ autres s’ imaginent dans un transat à la plage, devant l’ écran de la télévision diffusant leurs dernières vacances dans le sud-est asiatique.
Les vacances du Nouvel An lunaire sont terminées, mais il faut encore rester confiné
Le pic de l’ épidémie n’ est pas encore arrivé. De nouvelles villes se sont retrouvées confinées ce week-end, comme Wenzhou, dans la province du Zhejiang, où les habitants doivent désigner un membre de la famille pour aller au ravitaillement, une fois tous les deux jours maximum. Là aussi, il faut trouver à s’ occuper car les « vacances » ont été prolongées. Le retour au travail a été reporté, de même que pour la rentrée scolaire.
Staff in one of the few hotels still open in Wuhan have been engaging in daily group exercise to keep the coronavirus at bay pic.twitter.com/jXd0ifZsMU
Des secteurs et des villes font encore exception. À Shanghai par exemple, on a vu circuler cette vidéo d’ employés d’ un hôtel de luxe occupés à faire des exercices toute la journée sur leur travail. Pour s’ entretenir, raconte leur manager, et pour s’ occuper là encore. Les clients sont loin de bousculer, et ces employés sont un peu seuls dans leur palace.
Les récalcitrants rappelés à l'ordre par drones
Pour ceux qui ne répondent pas aux injonctions, il y a des avertissements: on a beaucoup vu circuler ces images de drones ordonnant aux habitants des déserts de Mongolie intérieure de mettre leur masque et de rentrer à la maison.
Walking around without a protective face mask? Well, you can't avoid these sharp-tongued drones! Many village and cities in China are using drones equipped with speakers to patrol during the # coronavirus outbreak. pic.twitter.com/ILbLmlkL9R
Les drones de la police volent aussi dans les grandes villes, là aussi pour recommander le port du masque et d’ éviter de sortir. Il y a des amendes, certains se font même arrêter. Le lanceur d’ alerte Fang Bing, à Wuhan, a été interpellé pour une vidéo montrant des sacs mortuaires des victimes du coronavirus dans un hôpital de Wuhan.
方斌出来了，回到家中， pic.twitter.com/xU1oXuuugu
« Ils sont venus me chercher à six ou sept en combinaison de protection à la maison, raconte ce dernier. Ils m’ ont emmené au commissariat de police et m'ont demandé pourquoi je filmais des cadavres et des choses négatives. Et puis ils m’ ont relâché. » Lui aussi a été invité à rester chez lui sagement. Il faut tout faire pour que la population reste à la maison: certains opérateurs Télécom proposent des packs Internet permettant de tuer le temps en surfant.
Tous les moyens sont bons! Afin de limiter la propagation du # coronavirus et encourager les gens à rester cloîtrés chez eux China Mobile offre un pack de 30Go. # WuhanOutbreak # Francetvchine # chine # CoronavirusOutbreak @ arnauldmiguet pic.twitter.com/3pWr6Rlfru
Des messages déconseillent de chanter à la fenêtre, de crainte d’ attraper le coronavirus sur son balcon. Ou de faire attention en jouant avec la neige à Pékin: là aussi, selon les médecins, ce serait risquer l’ infection.
Doctors warn residents not to play with snow, which may lead to possible infection with the novel # coronavirus, as Beijing welcomed its first snowfall in the year of Rat on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/LIu8tgOjql
Tour des Réseaux à Pékin par Stéphane Lagarde: face au coronavirus, le confinement des habitants | general |
17,391 Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Globally – 362 Deaths Worldwide | Coronavirus Map: Distribution of 2019-nCoV case as of February 3, 2020. Credit: WHO
Note: There is now a newer Novel Coronavirus ( 2019-nCoV) Situation Report 15.
WHO Operational Support and Logistics ( OSL) is working to support the 2019-nCoV response, both at the global level and directly with Member States. Amongst these activities, WHO OSL has updated the Disease Commodity Package ( DCP), which has been published here. This document provides guidance on commodities required for all aspects of response. WHO OSL has also been working to develop global commodity cost estimates for the 2019-nCoV response, which will aid in global strategic response planning and financing.
Working with technical experts in health operations, WHO OSL has developed a “ 2019-nCoV kit, ” similar to prepared treatment kits used for cholera, Ebola and other high threat pathogens in emergencies. In the coming days, the costing, procurement, and assembly of these kits will be a priority.
Through the Pandemic Supply Chain Network ( PSCN), a market survey has been distributed to over 40 organizations to understand the availability, distribution, and forecasting of crucial response commodities throughout the world. A report of the findings will be redistributed to all partners. The Network is exploring operational options within its stakeholders to ensure in particular that critical personal protective equipment is secured and distributed to appropriate locations. Additional stakeholders are encouraged to join the Pandemic Supply Chain Network by contacting WHO OSL.
Guidance is currently under development for managing the logistics associated with case management, focusing on isolation, triage and standard treatment center configuration.
OSL is setting up a global supply chain system and a coordination mechanism between responders and suppliers to ensure access to essential commodities for countries/populations most in need.
During previous outbreaks due to other coronaviruses ( Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome ( MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS), human-to-human transmission occurred through droplets, contact, and fomites, suggesting that the transmission mode of the 2019-nCoV can be similar. The basic principles to reduce the general risk of transmission of acute respiratory infections include the following:
WHO does not recommend any specific health measures for travelers. In case of symptoms suggestive of respiratory illness either during or after travel, travelers are encouraged to seek medical attention and share their travel history with their healthcare provider. | tech |
TFG Weekly Trade Briefing, 10th February 2020 | Apple’ s main plant for iPhone production in Henan, run by Foxconn, was closed last week because of the virus. Manufacturers that rely on Chinese inputs from the affected area may struggle to maintain production. South Korean automaker Hyundai has halted production at all its Korean plants after exhausting its stock of Chinese components. Automakers in Europe and the US report that they are weeks away from doing the same. The Nikkei Asian Review reported that key suppliers to Apple are expecting labour shortages due to travel restrictions. Read more →
OPEC’ s advisers have called for deeper oil supply cuts in response to the negative impact the coronavirus is having on oil demand. The oil price has fallen 22% to $ 56/b over the last month. OPEC’ s actions in the past have angered U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded OPEC’ s de facto leader Saudi Arabia bring oil prices down if it wants Washington’ s to provide Riyadh with military support against arch-rival Iran.
In the past few months, Trump has said little on OPEC but that might change later in 2020 if oil and gasoline prices rise – a politically sensitive issue in the United States. Trump will seek re-election in November. Read more →
China on Thursday said it would halve additional tariffs levied against 1,717 U.S. goods last year, following the signing of a Phase 1 deal that defused a bruising trade war between the world’ s two largest economies.
While the announcement reciprocates the U.S. commitment under the deal, it is also seen by analysts as a move by Beijing to boost confidence amid a virus outbreak that has disrupted businesses and hit investor sentiment. Read more →
Azimo, the European money transfer service, has entered into a €20 million debt agreement with the European Investment Bank ( EIB). The loan will help Azimo accelerate its expansion, product development, and grow its technical team in Kraków, where the majority of its staff is located.
Headquartered in London, the fintech company offers cross-border money transfers with an emphasis on speed and affordability. Aware that many overseas workers send their paychecks back home ( to the tune of nearly $ 650 billion per year), Azimo works toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals of financial inclusion and inequality reduction. Read more →
Earlier last week, blockchain firm komgo announced it bought another commodity trade finance platform, TRAFEC. The acquired company has almost 100 corporates on the platform and was founded in 2011 by Swiss association STSA and banks. Read more →
U.S. President Donald Trump was “ apoplectic ” with Boris Johnson during a phone call to discuss the British prime minister’ s decision to allow Chinese firm Huawei a role in Britain’ s 5G mobile phone network, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
Citing unnamed officials in London and Washington, the FT said the president was livid during the exchange last week after Johnson’ s government said Huawei could have a limited role in building Britain’ s 5G mobile network, despite warnings from the Trump administration. Read more →
Singapore, 06 Feb 2020 – Advancing Singapore’ s trade digitalisation agenda, DBS Bank, in collaboration with Audi Singapore ( Audi) and Audi’ s local distributor, Premium Automobiles ( Premium), completed the first trade financing transaction on Singapore’ s Networked Trade Platform ( NTP). The inaugural trade relates to an SGD3.5 million letter of credit transaction for a trade of Audi cars between Audi and Premium. Read more →
Persiana is Marketing Executive at Trade Finance Global.
Persiana did a joint degree in Economics and Finance at Queen Mary University London and Bocconi University of Milan.
Her interests include macroeconomic policy, sustainable development and green finance, central banking, treasury and payment systems. | general |
Copper prices could be sending up a warning flare for investors | A corner of the commodities market is spiraling, and it could have big implications for stocks and the economy.
Copper prices have tumbled more than 12% since a Jan. 14 high as the coronavirus outbreak worsens and threatens the global economy. Copper is seen as a barometer of broad economic demand given its applications in electrical equipment and manufacturing.
It could get worse for the commodity from here, warns Danielle Shay, trader specialist at Simpler Trading.
`` Copper is a very China-sensitive commodity, '' Shay said on CNBC's `` Trading Nation '' on Friday. `` What we 've seen over the course of the past two years really is this downward trend that I personally equate largely to the trade war. But of course, what we 've seen over the course the last two weeks is the coronavirus. ''
In two weeks, copper has fallen to levels not seen since September and was the worst-performing metal last week.
The outbreak is `` hitting it even harder because of the uncertainty surrounding it and because of the uncertainty of China's growth. I mean, if we can not get the coronavirus contained, and China's economy can not get back on track, this absolutely could end in more of a down spiral, '' said Shay.
Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Capital, is preparing for a major move in either direction.
`` It has sold off pretty hard … and maybe copper is a little overdone. It's maybe a little oversold. At $ 2.50, there's a lot of support down here. But I don't know. We could shred through $ 2.50 and go right down to $ 2.25. Or we could bounce here — a dead-cat bounce, '' said Baruch.
Copper was trading at $ 2.52 a pound on Monday. It is less than 1% from falling below $ 2.50. A move down to $ 2.25 represents 11% more downside.
Baruch has a way to trade the metal no matter which way it moves. He's putting on an options strangle — buying the 285 call for May and buying the 225 put for May. These don't expire for 87 days and he's using this time value in his favor by planning to hold for only as much as 35 days. Baruch can exit at any time, and he plans to capitalize upon the next directional move that puts his strike prices in play.
Disclaimer | business |
Coronavirus: UAE to suspend all China flights except for Beijing | DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The United Arab Emirates is the latest country to announce suspension of flights to and from China — with the exception of the capital Beijing — in an effort to contain the new coronavirus, its state-run WAM news agency announced Monday.
The suspension will come into effect on Feb. 5, the UAE's General Civil Aviation Authority ( GCAA) said in a statement.
`` We continue to put our confidence in the Chinese government's efforts to control and contain the situation, '' the GCAA said, adding that all passengers traveling from Beijing International Airport will undergo a six to eight hour comprehensive medical screening at the airport before boarding.
The announcement falls in line with a growing number of governments around the world cutting commercial transport routes to China as the death and infection count from the deadly new coronavirus mounts. The disease has killed more than 360 and sickened more than 17,000, the vast majority in China.
Over the weekend, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Australia, Italy, Finland and Indonesia counted among several countries temporarily halting flights to the epidemic-stricken country, with some barring entry to Chinese citizens or foreign nationals who have visited China in recent weeks.
The UAE has announced five confirmed cases of the respiratory infection in the past week, all of which trace back to Wuhan, China, the city of 11 million where the virus first appeared. The UAE is home to national carriers Emirates Airline and Etihad.
The GCAA's statement noted that all flights to and from Wuhan from the UAE have been canceled since Jan. 23.
Emirates Airline, based in Dubai, is the world's largest A380 operator and top-five largest airline in terms of passenger and freight ton kilometers flown. Its base, Dubai International Airport, was ranked the world's busiest airport in terms of passenger traffic last year.
Major airlines temporarily suspending China routes include American Airlines, Delta, United Airlines, Air Canada, British Airways, KLM, Qatar Airways and Egypt Air.
Public health officials and the World Health Organization have warned against the travel bans, saying they can cause more harm than good.
`` Although travel restrictions may intuitively seem like the right thing to do, this is not something that WHO usually recommends, '' Tarik Jasarevic, a WHO spokesperson, told press in late January. `` This is because of the social disruption they cause and the intensive use of resources required. '' Officials also said the bans could wreak a financial toll on the country dealing with the crisis and discourage transparency.
China's National Health Commission earlier confirmed 17,205 cases of the coronavirus in the country and 361 deaths.
Chinese markets opened down 9% on Monday morning as local businesses reel from closures across the country.
Business has been shut down in more than half of China — 21 provinces that accounted for more than 80% of national GDP last year — in an effort to contain the virus. More than 50 million people in China are effectively on travel lockdown while the country struggles to respond to the rising volume of cases. | business |
Oil drops 2.8% on coronavirus fears, dips below $ 50 per barrel | Oil fell to its lowest level in more than a year on Monday as the coronavirus outbreak and its potential impact on demand further hammered crude prices.
`` The oil market has been subject to many supply shocks over recent years, but an acute demand shock has not been felt since the 2008 financial crisis, '' RBC's Michael Tran said in a note to clients Monday, adding that the coronavirus has `` roiled the oil market. ''
U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.8%, or $ 1.45 per barrel, to settle at $ 50.11 per barrel. Earlier in the session, WTI fell more than 3% to $ 49.92, its lowest level since Jan. 2019. International benchmark Brent crude dropped 3.9%, or $ 2.21, to $ 54.41 and hit its lowest level since Jan. 3, 2019.
`` The supply / demand profile in crude oil was already looking extremely fragile for the first half of 2020 before the virus hit, '' said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. `` Crude will remain very reactionary to any headlines that indicate the virus will have a sustained impact on global demand. ''
China is the world's largest oil importer and the second-largest oil consumer, so a demand slowdown could have a big impact on prices.
WTI and Brent are trading in bear-market territory of at least 20% price declines from recent highs and are coming off four straight weeks of losses.
RBC's Helima Croft said the market is focusing `` on a sum-of-all-fears scenario for demand, '' and said that `` all eyes are now on whether OPEC can alter the sentiment through collective action. ''
The energy alliance's Joint Technical Committee, a nonministerial sub group that reviews the oil market, will reportedly hold meetings Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna to discuss options to mitigate the impact from the coronavirus outbreak. The action could include additional production cuts. A full OPEC meeting could take place next week.
`` We're expecting production cuts to the tune of about 500,000 barrels per day, '' Yogi Dewan, CEO of Hassium Asset Management, told CNBC's `` Capital Connection. '' `` OPEC is looking at this very, very carefully, just thinking to themselves, we need to do something here just to help support oil prices. ''
Earlier in the session, WTI briefly turned positive after The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia was considering a 1 million barrels per day cut in order to stimulate prices. The newspaper cited OPEC officials.
`` Willingness to increase production cuts from OPEC+ is expected by the market, '' Babin said.
- CNBC's Michael Bloom, Dan Murphy and Abigail Ng contributed reporting. | business |
Coronavirus impact on Indian economy, according to Maruti chief | The new coronavirus outbreak is unlikely to have a serious impact on India's struggling auto sector even as factories remain shuttered in China as part of an effort to contain the infection, the chairman of Maruti Suzuki said.
Maruti Suzuki is one of India's top auto manufacturers.
While many Maruti vendors rely on supplies of some components and raw materials from China, most of them have inventories of up to 30 days, Maruti Chairman R.C. Bhargava told CNBC's Tanvir Gill. Efforts are also being made to look at alternative sources for some of those parts, he explained.
`` It's not a large amount, '' he said, referring to the percentage of components Maruti and its vendors import from China. `` Total imports are small, but the point is that for a car, even if one component is not there, I can't put the car on the road. ''
He added that while alternative sources of supply will probably add a little to the cost of making a car, it is unlikely to disrupt production or sales.
India's auto industry has been struggling due to rising prices of cars and the lack of cheap loans available due to problems in the financial sector, which made consumers more reluctant to spend. Car sales fell 19% last year while sales of two-wheelers declined 14%, Reuters reported.
The global economic impact of the new outbreak will be greater than what it was during the SARS epidemic in 2003 because China's GDP now accounts for a larger share of the world economy, Bhargava said. China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010.
`` Compared to SARS, this will have a bigger impact, largely because the Chinese economy has become a much bigger economy, '' he said. `` Even if the impact is of the same magnitude, because it's enhanced several times, it will have an impact on ( the global economy). ''
Bhargava pointed to recent declines in crude oil prices amid speculation of lower Chinese demand. Still, India may not be as affected since it does not `` have that much of dependency either on ( international) exports or on the Chinese market. ''
The pneumonia-like virus outbreak, which was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December, has rapidly spread across the country and to more than 20 countries so far. The death toll from the new, mysterious coronavirus in mainland China surpassed that of SARS — or severe acute respiratory syndrome — with 361 people killed through the end of Sunday.
More than half of China's growth hubs have not returned to work, extending the Lunar New Year holiday by at least a week in a bid to stem the spread of the virus. That means factories would remain shut for a longer time than initially planned, effectively disrupting the production and export of materials used by companies around the world.
Many international firms have already suspended operations in China.
Maruti's rival Tata Motors recently said the virus outbreak in the country could affect production for its luxury car brand Jaguar Land Rover, Reuters reported. | business |
Coronavirus: OPEC+ may deepen production cuts amid crude collapse | OPEC and its allies could cut production by more than a million barrels a day at a rescheduled meeting this month, as policymakers work to arrest a double-digit collapse in the price of oil.
`` I think it is a 'go big or go home ' moment for the organization, '' Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC Monday.
`` If you are going the route of an extraordinary meeting, you will have to come up with a substantial reduction in order to prevent the market from further tanking, '' she said, adding that OPEC may potentially cut production in the `` 1 million ( barrel) plus range '' this month. The Wall Street Journal also reported on Monday, citing OPEC officials, that kingpin Saudi Arabia was considering an option to cut by 1 million barrels a day to jolt markets.
Representatives from OPEC are reportedly planning to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna to discuss options to mitigate the impact of a loss of demand arising from the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
Various scenarios are under active consideration. While Croft suggested OPEC could cut `` potentially in the million plus range, '' other analysts have suggested a smaller cut may be more likely.
`` We're expecting production cuts to the tune of about 500,000 barrels per day, '' Yogi Dewan, CEO of Hassium Asset Management, told CNBC's `` Capital Connection. ''
`` OPEC is looking at this very, very carefully, just thinking to themselves, we need to do something here just to help support oil prices, '' he added.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $ 51.51 a barrel on Monday, having fallen more than 15% since the start of the year. Brent crude traded at $ 56.26 a barrel, having fallen 13% in the same period. Brent is now at its lowest level since January 2019.
Oil has struggled following the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China that was first reported in late December and has spread globally in recent weeks. China's National Health Commission said there have been 17,205 confirmed cases and 361 deaths in the country as of the end of Sunday.
OPEC and its allies last year agreed to reduce supply by 1.7 million barrels per day until its next meeting in March 2020, but the group is now likely to reschedule its March 5-6 meeting for February, underscoring the severity of the situation and ongoing price declines.
Reports say the energy alliance's Joint Technical Committee, a non-ministerial sub group that reviews the oil market, will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna, while a full OPEC meeting is likely to follow next week.
According to Reuters reports, Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he would be open to an earlier meeting, while Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said OPEC+ would step in to bolster prices if needed.
OPEC President Mohamed Arkab has also said the meeting could be moved to February, according to the Algeria Press Service. | business |
Online mask prices surge in Japan amid coronavirus scare | OSAKA – As a shortage of face masks continues in Japan amid the spread of the new coronavirus originating in China, their prices are shooting up on online flea markets.
Some people are apparently cornering masks at drugstores and other shops and selling them at excessively high prices via online markets that have no regulations regarding resales.
As the coronavirus outbreak drags on, Amazon.com has run out its inventory of regularly priced masks.
In the meantime, large volumes of masks are on sale elsewhere at inflated prices. For example, a pack of seven masks that normally sells for around ¥400 is priced at about ¥4,000 on one such website.
Visiting a drugstore in the city of Osaka, a female corporate worker in her 20s said, “ I’ m now visiting a fifth store for a pack containing a large number of individually wrapped masks, but I can’ t find them anywhere. ”
RELATED STORIES Coronavirus outbreak to hurt Japan's economy, LDP's Fumio Kishida says Financial market website Zero Hedge knocked off Twitter over coronavirus 'bioweapon ' story Coronavirus forces world's largest telework experiment Stocks in China slide; U.S. equity futures advance Japan firms limit customer contact, aiming to prevent spread of deadly coronavirus
A student from Taiwan in her 20s said she has been asked by her parents to buy masks in Japan and bring them back with her.
“ I came to this store because ( mask) prices are soaring on internet sites, but I can’ t find any, ” she said.
Government officials are considering drawing up regulations on resales and other practices on online flea markets.
“ The situation needs to be watched carefully, ” an official of the Consumer Affairs Agency said.
Kensaku Fukui, a lawyer versed in issues related to product resales, said that sometimes laws are established to ban resales of specific products, such as Olympic tickets, at inflated prices. “ But it’ s difficult to regulate resales of masks, ” he said.
Still, Fukui said that it is very malicious to corner goods and resell during a disease outbreak.
“ Measures should be taken, such as stores limiting the number of items each customer can buy and rejecting purchases for the purpose of resale, ” he said.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Financial market website Zero Hedge knocked off Twitter over coronavirus 'bioweapon ' story | BANGALORE, INDIA – Twitter Inc. has banned financial market website Zero Hedge from the social media platform after it published an article linking a Chinese scientist to the outbreak of the fast-spreading coronavirus last week.
Zero Hedge said it received a notification from Twitter on Friday, accusing it of violating Twitter’ s “ rules against abuse and harassment. ”
The move against the website came as the coronavirus has stoked a wave of anti-China sentiment around the globe. Hoaxes have spread widely online, promoted by conspiracy theorists and exacerbated by a dearth of information from the cordoned-off zone around China’ s central city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began.
Twitter confirmed to Reuters on Sunday Zero Hedge’ s account on its platform had been permanently suspended for violating “ platform manipulation policy. ”
Zero Hedge said it initially thought the suspension was triggered by an article it published on Friday about the makeup of the coronavirus. But it said it later learned Twitter had received a complaint from online news website BuzzFeed over a separate article.
BuzzFeed said Zero Hedge had released the personal information of a scientist from Wuhan in an article that made allegations about coronavirus having been concocted “ as a bioweapon. ” The article was titled “ Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic? ”
BuzzFeed did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Last week, Twitter had said “ those who engage in coordinated attempts to spread disinformation at scale about coronavirus issue will be removed from service. ”
Facebook Inc. also said it would take down misinformation about the virus.
Zero Hedge, which covers mostly finance and economics, had more than 670,000 followers on Twitter as of its suspension.
The coronavirus has killed more than 300 people in China, and more than two dozen other countries have confirmed cases of the virus.
In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. | tech |
Twitter asks employees to work from home due to coronavirus threat | Twitter encourages all employees to work from home.
On Monday, Twitter announced in a blog post that all employees are being `` strongly encouraged '' to work from home to lower the probability of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. `` We are operating out of an abundance of caution and the utmost dedication to keeping our Tweeps healthy, '' the company said in a statement.
Offices will remain open for those who need to come in, or who choose to. Employees in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea will be required to work as a remote employee.
SEE: Policy pack: Guidelines for remote workers ( TechRepublic Premium)
This comes just hours after the company revealed that it had told employees earlier, on February 29, that it was immediately halting all nonessential employee travel due to the risk posed by the coronavirus. With that announcement, Twitter joined the ranks of Amazon and Google to end nonessential employee travel because of the coronavirus and COVID-19.
The Twitter blog post said, `` We are working to make sure internal meetings, all hands, and other important tasks are optimized for remote participation. We recognize that working from home is not ideal for some job functions. For those employees who prefer or need to come into the offices, they will remain open for business. Our Real Estate & Workplace team is increasing deep cleaning and sanitizing in all spaces, as well as more visual reminders for personal hygiene best practices and pre-packaged, pre-composed, and pre-plated food options. ''
SEE: Managing remote workers: A business leader's guide ( free PDF) ( TechRepublic)
The post continued, `` Working from home will be mandatory for employees based in our Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea offices due in part to government restrictions. Our criteria will evolve over time as we get more information, and we will communicate to affected Tweeps as appropriate. ''
The CDC now has just over 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US in 15 states and six deaths, with New Hampshire and Georgia the most recent states to join the battle against the virus. The novel coronavirus has resulted in more than 3,100 deaths worldwide. So far, there have been 90,000 global cases confirmed as coronavirus spreads around the world.
SEE: Coronavirus having major effect on tech industry beyond supply chain delays ( free PDF) ( TechRepublic)
Twitter is also pulling out of SXSW, where Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey was scheduled to give a keynote address, according to CNET's Erin Carson. In past years, Twitter has hosted speakers and events at its `` Twitter House '' at SXSW in Austin, Texas, which takes place in mid-March. Facebook has also cancelled all SXSW participation this year.
Twitter announced the ban on employee travel yesterday in a blog post and said, `` We also have the responsibility of ensuring that the health and safety of our employees and partners is not compromised. We have continued to monitor the situation closely and are adjusting our internal policies to respond to this rapidly-evolving situation. On February 29, we informed our people and started notifying partners that we are suspending all non-critical business travel and events. ''
`` This policy is effective immediately and will continue until the World Health Organization or Centers for Disease Control deem it appropriate to step back from pandemic precautionary measures or when a vaccine becomes available. ''
This comes soon after Paul Singer, the billionaire founder of the activist fund Elliott Management, was reported to be preparing a plan to try to replace Jack Dorsey as CEO of Twitter.
This article was updated on March 3, 2020.
We deliver the top business tech news stories about the companies, the people, and the products revolutionizing the planet. Delivered Daily | tech |
Facebook will now take down posts that spread coronavirus misinformation | The news: Facebook has started deleting posts that contain false claims about the coronavirus, especially ones spreading dangerous misinformation about treatment—such as that drinking bleach cures the virus—and incorrect advice about available health resources.
Why it matters: This policy change, announced in a blog post, marks a welcome break from Facebook’ s usual approach to false information. At best, misinformation flagged by its global team of fact-checkers has been downgraded in news feeds. But this still allows falsehoods to spread across the network and pop up in searches. Facebook started downgrading posts containing false information about the coronavirus last week, but misinformation continued to be shared in private groups set up to discuss the outbreak. This appears to have prompted Facebook to begin removing offending posts entirely.
Social responsibility: Many would like to see this policy spread to other forms of misinformation, including false political ads or false claims about vaccines and cancer cures, but Facebook has given no indication that this will happen. Meanwhile, Twitter and YouTube are also rife with misinformation. Twitter says there have been 15 million tweets about the virus in the last four weeks, and the trend looks set to continue. At least there is no evidence of a coordinated attempt to spread deliberate falsehoods.
Twitter, too: When people search for information about the virus on Twitter, the company now directs them to official pages from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Google is directing people to the WHO.
Computation is the driving technological force behind many modern social and economic shifts. To better understand how computers will impact critical areas of our lives, we explore how they’ re being used today and what forces will shape their future.
Our mission is to bring about better-informed and more conscious decisions about technology through authoritative, influential, and trustworthy journalism. | tech |
The flu has already killed 10,000 across US as world frets over coronavirus | While the new coronavirus ravages much of China and world leaders rush to close their borders to protect citizens from the outbreak, the flu has quietly killed 10,000 in the U.S. so far this influenza season.
At least 19 million people have come down with the flu in the U.S. with 180,000 ending up in the hospital, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The flu season, which started in September and can run until May, is currently at its peak and poses a greater health threat to the U.S. than the new coronavirus, physicians say. The new virus, which first emerged in Wuhan, China, on Dec. 31, has sickened roughly 17,400 and killed 362 people mostly in that country as of Monday morning.
`` In the U.S., it's really a fear based on media and this being something new, '' Dr. Jennifer Lighter, hospital epidemiologist at NYU Langone Health, said of the new coronavirus. `` When in reality, people can take measures to protect themselves against the flu, which is here and prevalent and has already killed 10,000 people. ''
The coronavirus outbreak, however, is proving to be more deadly than the flu. It has killed roughly 2% of the people who have contracted it so far, according to world health officials. That compares with a mortality rate of 0.095% for the flu in the U.S., according to CDC estimates for the 2019-2020 flu season. The CDC estimates that 21 million people will eventually get the flu this season.
`` Two percent case fatality is still a tough case fatality when you compare it to the case fatality for the seasonal flu or other things, '' Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's health emergencies program, told reporters Wednesday.
`` A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it, '' he added. `` And this is the issue at the moment. We don't fully understand it. ''
Though some health-care professionals and analysts believe the number of coronavirus cases to be much higher, which would mean a lower mortality rate.
`` I think we're going to find that the mortality number is going to be lower, '' Lighter said. `` There is more than likely many times that number of people that have mild ( cases) or are asymptomatic. ''
`` It may end up being comparable to a bad flu season, '' Lighter added.
If that's the case, that would bode well for the virus's mortality rate, pathogens specialist Dr. Syra Madad told CNBC's `` Squawk Box. '' It would bring the mortality rate much lower, she pointed out, if there were 100,000 cases and only 362 deaths rather than 10,000 cases with 362 deaths.
`` If we're saying over 100,000 cases, the overall severity of the disease goes down, '' she said. `` The risk to the general American public is low, '' Madad said, though it's still `` very concerning. ''
The two viruses have similar symptoms, which some health officials fear will cause misdiagnoses. Common flu symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat and aches. Coronavirus symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath, according to the CDC.
For now, Lighter stressed that the public should focus on the flu, which is affecting children especially hard this season. She urged people to get their flu shots, if they haven't already, and practice good hygiene. If they're near someone sick, she said to stand three feet away at all times.
`` We are prepared at NYU to see patients that have coronavirus, '' she said. `` But we need to remain focused on our patients in our hospital. '' | business |
Stocks rebound from Friday's deep sell-off, but coronavirus fears linger | Stocks rose solidly on Monday, recovering some of the losses from the previous session's steep sell-off, but investors remained wary about the bounce as coronavirus fears lingered.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 143.78 points higher, or 0.5%, at 28,399.81. The S & P 500 gained 0.7% to end the day at 3,248.92 while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.3% at 9,273.40.
Nike led the Dow higher with a 3.1% rise after analysts at UBS and JPMorgan recommended buying the stock on coronavirus-related weakness. JPMorgan called this recent pullback a `` multi-year buying opportunity. '' Tesla, meanwhile, jumped more than 19% to record levels after an Argus Research analyst hiked his price target on the stock to $ 808 per share.
The major averages reached their session highs after the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing gauge showed activity in the sector expanded. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a contraction in manufacturing activity for January. The 30-stock Dow was up more than 350 points at its high of the day.
However, stocks gave back some of Monday's gains after Carnival confirmed one of its guests tested positive for coronavirus six days after leaving one of its ships. Carnival shares erased earlier gains and closed more than 1% lower on the news.
`` The shorter-term uncertainty around the coronavirus is really affecting everything, '' said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. `` You may continue to see sort of reallocation. ''
The death toll in China from the coronavirus reached 361 on Sunday, surpassing that of the SARS virus which lasted from 2002 to 2003, while a first death outside of China was reported in the Philippines.
Worries about how the virus would impact the global economy dented U.S. stocks in their final trading day of January. The Dow dropped 603 points, or more than 2%, on Friday. The S & P 500 pulled back 1.8%, its biggest one-day drop since October.
`` We had that sharp sell-off on Friday, so it's natural to see a bounce-back, '' said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist/SunTrust Advisory. `` But we think this corrective period has a bit more to go. ''
He noted that, historically, S & P 500 pullbacks last an average of 47 calendar days. Those periods have led to an average loss of more than 9%. The S & P 500 started to take a hit from coronavirus fears 17 calendar days ago, with the broad index losing more than 2% in that time. `` We don't have the all-clear yet, '' Lerner said.
Travel and airline stocks led the way lower for the broader market last week, with Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line among the hardest hit. Airlines such as Delta, United and American also fell.
Investors also increased their exposure last week to Treasurys and loaded up on protection in the options market. The 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday to 1.505%, pushing the note's price higher. The benchmark rate climbed back to around 1.52% on Monday.
Stocks in mainland China plummeted overnight in their first session since closing for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Shanghai Composite tanked by 7.7%. The Shenzhen Index fell by 8.4%. Japanese stocks also declined Monday, with the Nikkei 225 pulling back by 1%.
Yet, U.S. investors are seemingly buying the dip after the S & P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their worst start to a trading year since 2016.
`` We are looking for higher highs in the S & P 500 Index once the Coronavirus fears subside, '' said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics, in a note. `` Buying opportunities abound in strong sectors and industry groups. ''
But Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, advised investors to hold off on adding equity exposure at this point.
`` The coronavirus is different. It is big. It's going to paralyze China. It's going to cascade into the global economy, '' El-Erian told CNBC's `` Squawk Box '' on Monday. `` We should try and resist our inclination to buy the dip. ''
—CNBC's Elliot Smith contributed to this report. | business |
Daily Crunch: Hulu CEO steps down | The Daily Crunch is TechCrunch’ s roundup of our biggest and most important stories. If you’ d like to get this delivered to your inbox every day at around 9am Pacific, you can subscribe here. 1. Hulu restructures under Disney, CEO Randy Freer departs Hulu CEO Randy Freer is stepping down from his role as part of a major restructuring of Disney’ s streaming business. The move signals Disney’ s plans to streamline its direct-to-consumer operations, which also include Disney+ and ESPN+. Disney took control of Hulu last year following its acquisition of 21st Century Fox and a subsequent deal with the service’ s other owner, NBCUniversal. However, the company had largely left Hulu alone to operate as usual — until now. 2. BlackBerry and TCL will end their handset partnership in August 2020 BlackBerry and TCL announced that they would end their four-year brand licensing and tech support partnership in August 2020, with TCL ceasing to make new models of BlackBerry handsets after that point. 3. Launch startup Skyrora successfully tests 3D-printed rocket engines powered by plastic waste Skyrora’ s rocket engines are novel not only in their use of 3D printing, but also because the fuel that powers them is developed from plastic waste — a new type of fuel called “ Ecosene ” the startup says makes its launch vehicles greener and more ecologically sound than the competition. 4. Apple News adds coverage of 2020 US presidential election, including guides to candidates, issues & news literacy The coverage includes curated news, information and election data from ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FiveThirtyEight, Fox News, NBC News, ProPublica, Reuters, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, TIME, USA Today and others. The Apple News editorial team has also put together a series of curated guides, special features and other resources for readers from both sides of the political spectrum. 5. Nigeria is becoming Africa’ s unofficial tech capital Nigeria has become a magnet for venture capital, a hotbed for startup formation and a strategic entry point for Silicon Valley. Still, Jake Bright acknowledges that as a frontier market, there is volatility to the country’ s political and economic trajectory. ( Extra Crunch membership required.) 6. Watch this year’ s tech-themed Super Bowl ads from Amazon, Google and more Some of these ads come from tech giants like Amazon and Facebook, which have hired big stars to promote their products. Meanwhile, Dashlane found a fun way to remind viewers of the nightmare of life without a password manager, while Squarespace enlisted Winona Ryder to build a website on the platform. 7. This week’ s TechCrunch podcasts The latest full episode of Equity features a discussion of why Kleiner Perkins is investing its latest fund of $ 600 million at a rapid pace, while the Monday news roundup looks at the global market’ s response to coronavirus fears. And over at Original Content, we review the Netflix cheerleading documentary “ Cheer. ” | business |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.