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2019-05-02 | 2019-01-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-19", 0.35], ["2019-01-19", 0.517], ["2019-01-19", 0.462], ["2019-01-19", 0.462], ["2019-01-19", 0.47], ["2019-01-19", 0.49], ["2019-01-20", 0.49], ["2019-01-20", 0.528], ["2019-01-20", 0.547], ["2019-01-21", 0.547], ["2019-01-21", 0.569], ["2019-01-21", 0.564], ["2019-01-21", 0.564], ["2019-01-22", 0.558], ["2019-01-22", 0.568], ["2019-01-23", 0.571], ["2019-01-23", 0.577], ["2019-01-23", 0.577], ["2019-01-23", 0.579], ["2019-01-23", 0.578], ["2019-01-24", 0.579], ["2019-01-24", 0.582], ["2019-01-24", 0.585], ["2019-01-24", 0.582], ["2019-01-25", 0.58], ["2019-01-25", 0.579], ["2019-01-26", 0.578], ["2019-01-26", 0.578], ["2019-01-29", 0.579], ["2019-01-29", 0.582], ["2019-01-29", 0.583], ["2019-01-29", 0.585], ["2019-01-30", 0.585], ["2019-01-30", 0.585], ["2019-01-30", 0.585], ["2019-01-31", 0.589], ["2019-02-01", 0.591], ["2019-02-04", 0.585], ["2019-02-10", 0.585], ["2019-02-10", 0.592], ["2019-02-10", 0.575], ["2019-02-11", 0.58], ["2019-02-11", 0.583], ["2019-02-11", 0.577], ["2019-02-11", 0.58], ["2019-02-11", 0.583], ["2019-02-11", 0.585], ["2019-02-12", 0.587], ["2019-02-12", 0.59], ["2019-02-12", 0.579], ["2019-02-12", 0.587], ["2019-02-13", 0.587], ["2019-02-13", 0.585], ["2019-02-15", 0.586], ["2019-02-15", 0.587], ["2019-02-15", 0.587], ["2019-02-16", 0.592], ["2019-02-18", 0.597], ["2019-02-18", 0.596], ["2019-02-19", 0.596], ["2019-02-19", 0.598], ["2019-02-19", 0.601], ["2019-02-19", 0.599], ["2019-02-20", 0.602], ["2019-02-21", 0.6], ["2019-02-23", 0.602], ["2019-02-24", 0.602], ["2019-02-24", 0.604], ["2019-02-25", 0.595], ["2019-02-25", 0.592], ["2019-02-27", 0.592], ["2019-02-28", 0.594], ["2019-02-28", 0.597], ["2019-02-28", 0.602], ["2019-03-01", 0.603], ["2019-03-01", 0.604], ["2019-03-01", 0.604], ["2019-03-01", 0.605], ["2019-03-02", 0.605], ["2019-03-02", 0.605], ["2019-03-02", 0.606], ["2019-03-03", 0.606], ["2019-03-03", 0.606], ["2019-03-05", 0.607], ["2019-03-07", 0.607], ["2019-03-07", 0.608], ["2019-03-07", 0.611], ["2019-03-07", 0.616], ["2019-03-09", 0.619], ["2019-03-09", 0.619], ["2019-03-10", 0.622], ["2019-03-12", 0.622], ["2019-03-15", 0.623], ["2019-03-15", 0.608], ["2019-03-15", 0.608], ["2019-03-16", 0.614], ["2019-03-16", 0.615], ["2019-03-16", 0.615], ["2019-03-16", 0.612], ["2019-03-16", 0.613], ["2019-03-16", 0.615]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2573/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 400 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 402.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.
In order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:Will this outbreak claim more than 1000 lives before it is declared over by the WHO?
Note that this question is asked in the inverse way as the previous one: will 1000 people die, rather than will less than 1000 people die.
Resolution is by credible media report, or by the Congolese Government: Ministère de la Santé de la République Démocratique du Congo. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available. | true | 2019-03-16 | Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-10-15 | 2019-01-17 | [] | binary | [["2020-07-01", 0.6], ["2020-07-02", 0.53], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-02", 0.47], ["2020-07-03", 0.47], ["2020-07-03", 0.412], ["2020-07-03", 0.448], ["2020-07-03", 0.429], ["2020-07-03", 0.444], ["2020-07-04", 0.43], ["2020-07-04", 0.43], ["2020-07-04", 0.429], ["2020-07-04", 0.442], ["2020-07-05", 0.454], ["2020-07-05", 0.433], ["2020-07-05", 0.454], ["2020-07-06", 0.46], ["2020-07-06", 0.443], ["2020-07-06", 0.453], ["2020-07-06", 0.456], ["2020-07-09", 0.48], ["2020-07-10", 0.48], ["2020-07-13", 0.476], ["2020-08-26", 0.473], ["2020-08-28", 0.466], ["2020-09-04", 0.472], ["2020-09-05", 0.472], ["2020-09-05", 0.466], ["2020-10-09", 0.465], ["2020-10-10", 0.465], ["2020-10-10", 0.467], ["2020-10-16", 0.465], ["2020-10-16", 0.461], ["2020-10-21", 0.461], ["2020-11-10", 0.461], ["2020-11-10", 0.461], ["2020-11-19", 0.461], ["2020-11-19", 0.461], ["2020-12-10", 0.466], ["2020-12-11", 0.465], ["2020-12-15", 0.464], ["2020-12-19", 0.464], ["2020-12-20", 0.471], ["2020-12-22", 0.469], ["2020-12-27", 0.469], ["2020-12-27", 0.465], ["2020-12-27", 0.464], ["2020-12-27", 0.464], ["2021-01-11", 0.461], ["2021-01-20", 0.461], ["2021-01-20", 0.462], ["2021-01-20", 0.459], ["2021-02-01", 0.458], ["2021-02-02", 0.461], ["2021-02-03", 0.459], ["2021-02-12", 0.461], ["2021-02-12", 0.461], ["2021-02-15", 0.461], ["2021-04-07", 0.459], ["2021-04-10", 0.459], ["2021-05-01", 0.459], ["2021-05-03", 0.453], ["2021-05-05", 0.453], ["2021-05-05", 0.442], ["2021-05-06", 0.442], ["2021-05-06", 0.441], ["2021-05-23", 0.439], ["2021-06-12", 0.439], ["2021-06-13", 0.435], ["2021-06-28", 0.435], ["2021-07-15", 0.436], ["2021-07-20", 0.436], ["2021-07-20", 0.436], ["2021-07-23", 0.433], ["2021-07-23", 0.434], ["2021-08-05", 0.431], ["2021-08-09", 0.428], ["2021-08-09", 0.428], ["2021-08-22", 0.426], ["2021-08-22", 0.426], ["2021-09-01", 0.426], ["2021-09-14", 0.428], ["2021-09-15", 0.428], ["2021-09-16", 0.43], ["2021-09-21", 0.43], ["2021-09-21", 0.43], ["2021-09-22", 0.431], ["2021-09-25", 0.432], ["2021-09-27", 0.432], ["2021-09-28", 0.433], ["2021-09-29", 0.432], ["2021-09-29", 0.431], ["2021-09-29", 0.429], ["2021-09-30", 0.422], ["2021-09-30", 0.42], ["2021-09-30", 0.411], ["2021-10-01", 0.41], ["2021-10-01", 0.408], ["2021-10-01", 0.406]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2578/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Context
Airborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):
KITE KRAFT
Kitepower
SkySails Group
Ampyx Power
SkyPull
The basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.
Some AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is duration testing a 100kW system.
Question
Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?
Resolution
This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet. | true | 2021-10-01 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-27 | 2019-01-18 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-21", 0.99], ["2019-01-21", 0.698], ["2019-01-21", 0.61], ["2019-01-21", 0.673], ["2019-01-21", 0.664], ["2019-01-21", 0.693], ["2019-01-22", 0.657], ["2019-01-22", 0.657], ["2019-01-22", 0.646], ["2019-01-22", 0.65], ["2019-01-22", 0.65], ["2019-01-22", 0.658], ["2019-01-23", 0.658], ["2019-01-23", 0.664], ["2019-01-23", 0.675], ["2019-01-23", 0.643], ["2019-01-23", 0.646], ["2019-01-23", 0.646], ["2019-01-23", 0.646], ["2019-01-23", 0.645], ["2019-01-24", 0.645], ["2019-01-24", 0.652], ["2019-01-24", 0.648], ["2019-01-24", 0.649], ["2019-01-24", 0.648], ["2019-01-24", 0.644], ["2019-01-25", 0.635], ["2019-01-25", 0.636], ["2019-01-25", 0.63], ["2019-01-26", 0.63], ["2019-01-26", 0.627], ["2019-01-26", 0.631], ["2019-01-26", 0.63], ["2019-01-28", 0.631], ["2019-01-28", 0.631], ["2019-01-28", 0.631], ["2019-01-28", 0.631], ["2019-01-29", 0.63], ["2019-01-29", 0.637], ["2019-01-29", 0.637], ["2019-01-29", 0.636], ["2019-01-31", 0.635], ["2019-02-01", 0.635], ["2019-02-01", 0.638], ["2019-02-01", 0.641], ["2019-02-01", 0.641], ["2019-02-01", 0.641], ["2019-02-02", 0.64], ["2019-02-02", 0.644], ["2019-02-02", 0.644], ["2019-02-02", 0.644], ["2019-02-02", 0.65], ["2019-02-02", 0.652], ["2019-02-03", 0.652], ["2019-02-03", 0.653], ["2019-02-03", 0.652], ["2019-02-03", 0.654], ["2019-02-03", 0.656], ["2019-02-04", 0.658], ["2019-02-04", 0.665], ["2019-02-04", 0.665], ["2019-02-04", 0.665], ["2019-02-05", 0.658], ["2019-02-06", 0.66], ["2019-02-06", 0.663], ["2019-02-06", 0.667], ["2019-02-06", 0.67], ["2019-02-06", 0.674], ["2019-02-06", 0.676], ["2019-02-06", 0.676], ["2019-02-06", 0.682], ["2019-02-06", 0.68], ["2019-02-06", 0.679], ["2019-02-07", 0.671], ["2019-02-07", 0.676], ["2019-02-07", 0.68], ["2019-02-08", 0.683], ["2019-02-08", 0.683], ["2019-02-09", 0.686], ["2019-02-09", 0.686], ["2019-02-09", 0.69], ["2019-02-09", 0.69], ["2019-02-09", 0.696], ["2019-02-09", 0.697], ["2019-02-10", 0.698], ["2019-02-10", 0.699], ["2019-02-10", 0.699], ["2019-02-10", 0.699], ["2019-02-11", 0.701], ["2019-02-11", 0.701], ["2019-02-11", 0.702], ["2019-02-11", 0.705], ["2019-02-11", 0.702], ["2019-02-11", 0.703], ["2019-02-12", 0.705], ["2019-02-13", 0.712], ["2019-02-13", 0.713], ["2019-02-13", 0.721], ["2019-02-13", 0.722], ["2019-02-13", 0.722], ["2019-02-13", 0.725]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2580/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 18 January 2019, the White House announced that United States President Donald Trump would meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un near the end of February.
This question asks: Will Trump meet Kim before 01 April 2019?
For a positive resolution, the two men must be physically present (i.e. not a meeting by teleconference) in the same room or location and visible to one another.
If this does not happen before 01 April 2019 for any reason (including delay, cancellation of the meeting or the death or incapacity of one or both of the participatns) the question shall resolve negatively.
If the meeting is brought forward, this question shall close retroactively one day before the meeting is scheduled to be held. | true | 2019-02-14 | Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-10-22 | 2019-01-20 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-23", 0.75], ["2019-01-24", 0.664], ["2019-01-25", 0.667], ["2019-01-26", 0.642], ["2019-01-28", 0.642], ["2019-01-29", 0.64], ["2019-01-31", 0.641], ["2019-02-03", 0.641], ["2019-02-04", 0.637], ["2019-02-06", 0.637], ["2019-02-13", 0.636], ["2019-02-21", 0.634], ["2019-03-01", 0.631], ["2019-03-03", 0.603], ["2019-03-05", 0.589], ["2019-03-07", 0.589], ["2019-03-09", 0.56], ["2019-03-10", 0.557], ["2019-03-13", 0.552], ["2019-03-18", 0.552], ["2019-03-18", 0.551], ["2019-03-27", 0.55], ["2019-03-30", 0.55], ["2019-04-12", 0.549], ["2019-04-13", 0.547], ["2019-04-17", 0.542], ["2019-04-17", 0.542], ["2019-04-27", 0.545], ["2019-05-12", 0.547], ["2019-05-28", 0.547], ["2019-05-29", 0.537], ["2019-05-31", 0.53], ["2019-06-03", 0.525], ["2019-06-05", 0.523], ["2019-06-06", 0.524], ["2019-06-10", 0.525], ["2019-06-15", 0.525], ["2019-06-17", 0.494], ["2019-06-18", 0.494], ["2019-06-20", 0.485], ["2019-06-22", 0.487], ["2019-06-23", 0.487], ["2019-06-25", 0.482], ["2019-06-26", 0.479], ["2019-06-29", 0.477], ["2019-06-30", 0.477], ["2019-07-02", 0.477], ["2019-07-05", 0.473], ["2019-07-07", 0.468], ["2019-07-08", 0.467], ["2019-07-11", 0.47], ["2019-07-13", 0.484], ["2019-07-14", 0.486], ["2019-07-21", 0.486], ["2019-07-22", 0.486], ["2019-07-28", 0.486], ["2019-07-30", 0.486], ["2019-08-02", 0.487], ["2019-08-04", 0.49], ["2019-08-06", 0.493], ["2019-08-07", 0.494], ["2019-08-09", 0.498], ["2019-08-11", 0.499], ["2019-08-13", 0.505], ["2019-08-15", 0.502], ["2019-08-17", 0.502], ["2019-08-22", 0.502], ["2019-08-22", 0.502], ["2019-08-25", 0.501], ["2019-08-27", 0.501], ["2019-08-29", 0.502], ["2019-08-31", 0.502], ["2019-09-01", 0.503], ["2019-09-03", 0.503], ["2019-09-05", 0.516], ["2019-09-07", 0.518], ["2019-09-08", 0.519], ["2019-09-09", 0.526], ["2019-09-11", 0.544], ["2019-09-13", 0.545], ["2019-09-17", 0.545], ["2019-09-19", 0.542], ["2019-09-20", 0.539], ["2019-09-21", 0.537], ["2019-09-23", 0.531], ["2019-09-24", 0.535], ["2019-09-27", 0.535], ["2019-09-29", 0.539], ["2019-09-30", 0.544], ["2019-10-02", 0.544], ["2019-10-03", 0.544], ["2019-10-04", 0.545], ["2019-10-07", 0.545], ["2019-10-08", 0.544], ["2019-10-10", 0.538], ["2019-10-11", 0.538], ["2019-10-13", 0.544], ["2019-10-15", 0.547], ["2019-10-17", 0.549], ["2019-10-19", 0.547], ["2019-10-21", 0.554]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2583/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The next Canadian federal election will elect members of the House of Commons on or before October 21, 2019.
This question will resolve positive if the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reports that the Liberal Party of Canada won the most parliamentary seats, or ties with another party for the most number of seats. | true | 2019-10-21 | Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-01-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-27", 0.5], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.35], ["2019-01-27", 0.332], ["2019-01-27", 0.31], ["2019-01-27", 0.31], ["2019-01-27", 0.303], ["2019-01-27", 0.302], ["2019-01-28", 0.31], ["2019-01-28", 0.31], ["2019-01-28", 0.312], ["2019-01-28", 0.296], ["2019-01-28", 0.296], ["2019-01-28", 0.296], ["2019-01-28", 0.288], ["2019-01-28", 0.284], ["2019-01-28", 0.282], ["2019-01-29", 0.288], ["2019-01-29", 0.288], ["2019-01-29", 0.282], ["2019-01-29", 0.284], ["2019-01-29", 0.284], ["2019-01-29", 0.284], ["2019-01-30", 0.285], ["2019-01-31", 0.283], ["2019-02-04", 0.283], ["2019-02-12", 0.276], ["2019-02-12", 0.276], ["2019-02-12", 0.276], ["2019-02-17", 0.274], ["2019-02-17", 0.274], ["2019-02-18", 0.272], ["2019-02-18", 0.271], ["2019-02-21", 0.27], ["2019-02-28", 0.27], ["2019-03-02", 0.269], ["2019-03-11", 0.269], ["2019-03-16", 0.263], ["2019-03-19", 0.258], ["2019-03-27", 0.26], ["2019-03-28", 0.258], ["2019-04-13", 0.258], ["2019-04-13", 0.259], ["2019-04-19", 0.259], ["2019-04-29", 0.253], ["2019-05-03", 0.254], ["2019-05-05", 0.256], ["2019-05-11", 0.251], ["2019-05-13", 0.249], ["2019-05-14", 0.249], ["2019-05-14", 0.246], ["2019-05-15", 0.246], ["2019-05-15", 0.238], ["2019-05-16", 0.235], ["2019-05-16", 0.234], ["2019-05-16", 0.234], ["2019-05-16", 0.232], ["2019-05-16", 0.231], ["2019-05-17", 0.231], ["2019-05-17", 0.229], ["2019-05-18", 0.229], ["2019-05-18", 0.227], ["2019-05-18", 0.224], ["2019-05-19", 0.222], ["2019-05-19", 0.22], ["2019-05-19", 0.217], ["2019-05-19", 0.215], ["2019-05-19", 0.214], ["2019-05-19", 0.212], ["2019-05-20", 0.212], ["2019-05-20", 0.211], ["2019-05-20", 0.211], ["2019-05-21", 0.21], ["2019-05-21", 0.208], ["2019-05-21", 0.209], ["2019-05-21", 0.209], ["2019-05-21", 0.207], ["2019-05-21", 0.207], ["2019-05-21", 0.207], ["2019-05-22", 0.207], ["2019-05-22", 0.207], ["2019-05-23", 0.205], ["2019-05-23", 0.205], ["2019-05-23", 0.206], ["2019-05-23", 0.207], ["2019-05-24", 0.207], ["2019-05-25", 0.208], ["2019-05-25", 0.209], ["2019-05-26", 0.207], ["2019-05-27", 0.208], ["2019-05-27", 0.208], ["2019-05-29", 0.208], ["2019-05-30", 0.207], ["2019-05-30", 0.204], ["2019-05-30", 0.199], ["2019-05-31", 0.199], ["2019-05-31", 0.199], ["2019-05-31", 0.196], ["2019-05-31", 0.196], ["2019-05-31", 0.195]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2587/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | In 2017, Leonardo da Vinci's Salvator Mundi sold at auction at Christie's in New York City for $450.3 million. The painting was sold by Dmitry Rybolovlev and the buyer was the Abu Dhabi Department of Culture & Tourism. This was the highest price ever paid for a single piece of art.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2020, will any other single piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million?
Resolution should cite a press release from either the responsible auction house, or the buyer or seller (or their agents) of the artwork in question, or credible press reports.
The artwork must be a single piece, not a collection, and the consideration exchanged must be for the artwork only, excluding any other property included in the sale. The consideration may include any combination of cash, cash equivalents, equity, debt, real property or other financial assets, so long as the total value of the consideration exceeds $450.3 million according to either the seller, buyer, or agents acting on their behalf, or credible media reports.
In the event of a sale in which the value is confidential but is reported to be more than $450.3 million by a reputable source, that sale shall be considered to have met the critera.
The sale must be agreed to on or after January 1 2019 and before 1 January 2020, but physical custody of the artwork need not pass to the new owner before that date. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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Ford was founded in 1903 and in 2017 produced 6.6 million vehicles generating revenue of $156.7 billion, with a net income of $7.602 billion.
Tesla was founded in 2003 and in 2017 produced 101,312 vehicles generating revenue of $11.759 billion, with a net loss of $1.961 billion.
On 1 January 2020, will Tesla still have a larger market capitalization than Ford?
Resolves positively if Tesla's market capitalization is greater than Ford's by any amount on 01 January 2020. Resolves negatively if the inverse is true or if both have exactly the same market capitalization. Resolves ambiguously if either company is not a publicly traded company on that date. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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The global community is split, with, Western powers (broadly speaking), including the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, Brazil and the rest of the Lima group backing the National Assembly, and Russia, China, Mexico, Iran and Turkey and others backing Maduro.
Concern has been expressed that Guaido's declaration is part of, or a front for, a US backed intervention in Venezuela.
This question asks whether US troops will intervene in Venezuela this year.
Resolution is positive if credible media sources report that more than 100 US ground troops are deployed to Venezuela before the 1st of January 2020, and negative otherwise. Troops which are in Venezuela solely guarding, or escorting personnel from diplomatic missions do not count toward positive resolution. | true | 2019-03-01 | Will US troops intervene in Venezuela? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks: Before (and excluding) Q1 2021, will the UK experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?
Because it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question shall not resolve immediately in January 2021, but several months later. Resolution shall rely on the Quarterly National Accounts published by UK statistical authorities rather than any later revisions.
Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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As of the close of trading on 30 January 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 25,014.86.
The DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.
This question asks: Will the DJIA hit 30,000 before it next touches 20,000?
Resolves positively if the DJIA ever reaches an intraday level above 30,000 before reaching an intraday level of 20,000; resolves negatively if the inverse is true; and resolves ambiguously if (before either condition is met) the DJIA is discontinued or altered to such an extent that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. | true | 2019-04-30 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-31 | 2019-01-31 | [] | binary | [["2021-01-01", 0.85], ["2021-01-02", 0.306], ["2021-01-03", 0.361], ["2021-01-03", 0.301], ["2021-01-04", 0.282], ["2021-01-05", 0.288], ["2021-01-06", 0.29], ["2021-01-08", 0.289], ["2021-01-11", 0.287], ["2021-01-11", 0.281], ["2021-01-22", 0.302], ["2021-01-23", 0.302], ["2021-01-25", 0.302], ["2021-01-26", 0.301], ["2021-02-02", 0.302], ["2021-02-03", 0.304], ["2021-02-04", 0.304], ["2021-02-09", 0.306], ["2021-02-10", 0.303], ["2021-02-11", 0.302], ["2021-02-21", 0.302], ["2021-02-22", 0.282], ["2021-02-23", 0.282], ["2021-02-24", 0.275], ["2021-02-27", 0.271], ["2021-02-28", 0.274], ["2021-03-01", 0.268], ["2021-03-05", 0.266], ["2021-03-30", 0.267], ["2021-04-01", 0.267], ["2021-04-04", 0.266], ["2021-04-06", 0.262], ["2021-04-08", 0.257], ["2021-04-10", 0.257], ["2021-04-21", 0.252], ["2021-05-01", 0.252], ["2021-05-02", 0.246], ["2021-05-16", 0.244], ["2021-05-17", 0.244], ["2021-05-18", 0.244], ["2021-05-19", 0.249], ["2021-05-21", 0.249], ["2021-05-21", 0.245], ["2021-05-23", 0.245], ["2021-05-30", 0.242], ["2021-05-30", 0.242], ["2021-06-13", 0.241], ["2021-06-13", 0.241], ["2021-06-25", 0.237], ["2021-06-27", 0.252], ["2021-06-28", 0.252], ["2021-06-29", 0.252], ["2021-07-15", 0.253], ["2021-07-16", 0.253], ["2021-07-19", 0.253], ["2021-07-20", 0.253], ["2021-08-11", 0.253], ["2021-08-12", 0.249], ["2021-08-23", 0.249], ["2021-08-26", 0.249], ["2021-08-27", 0.253], ["2021-08-31", 0.254], ["2021-08-31", 0.253], ["2021-09-06", 0.253], ["2021-09-06", 0.253], ["2021-09-08", 0.253], ["2021-09-09", 0.246], ["2021-09-10", 0.24], ["2021-09-11", 0.238], ["2021-09-13", 0.233], ["2021-09-15", 0.231], ["2021-09-15", 0.231], ["2021-09-16", 0.231], ["2021-09-18", 0.23], ["2021-09-21", 0.23], ["2021-09-21", 0.226], ["2021-09-23", 0.223], ["2021-09-24", 0.222], ["2021-09-29", 0.222], ["2021-09-30", 0.222], ["2021-10-03", 0.222], ["2021-10-04", 0.22], ["2021-10-05", 0.218], ["2021-10-07", 0.217], ["2021-10-08", 0.216], ["2021-10-10", 0.215], ["2021-10-12", 0.215], ["2021-10-13", 0.212], ["2021-10-15", 0.209], ["2021-10-16", 0.205], ["2021-10-18", 0.201], ["2021-10-19", 0.2], ["2021-10-22", 0.199], ["2021-10-23", 0.199], ["2021-10-24", 0.196], ["2021-10-27", 0.192], ["2021-10-28", 0.179], ["2021-10-29", 0.179], ["2021-10-30", 0.176], ["2021-10-31", 0.164], ["2021-11-01", 0.145]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2606/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Due to the DeepMind team's recent achievements with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications.
One example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from.
Such accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency.
It could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training "coach" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.
Do you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?
This question asks:
In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?
New content means:
1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.
2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.
3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:
-new skins,
-new maps,
-or more balance patches,
all three of which occur pretty routinely.
New contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a "response" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way. | true | 2021-11-01 | Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-06-05 | 2019-02-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-07", 0.3], ["2019-02-07", 0.3], ["2019-02-07", 0.333], ["2019-02-07", 0.333], ["2019-02-07", 0.312], ["2019-02-07", 0.31], ["2019-02-08", 0.311], ["2019-02-08", 0.282], ["2019-02-08", 0.284], ["2019-02-08", 0.284], ["2019-02-09", 0.284], ["2019-02-10", 0.308], ["2019-02-11", 0.308], ["2019-02-11", 0.283], ["2019-02-11", 0.283], ["2019-02-11", 0.277], ["2019-02-11", 0.277], ["2019-02-11", 0.259], ["2019-02-11", 0.259], ["2019-02-11", 0.257], ["2019-02-11", 0.252], ["2019-02-11", 0.252], ["2019-02-11", 0.252], ["2019-02-12", 0.252], ["2019-02-12", 0.271], ["2019-02-13", 0.269], ["2019-02-14", 0.269], ["2019-02-15", 0.253], ["2019-02-15", 0.259], ["2019-02-16", 0.259], ["2019-02-16", 0.277], ["2019-02-17", 0.282], ["2019-02-22", 0.282], ["2019-03-01", 0.287], ["2019-03-11", 0.294], ["2019-03-20", 0.296], ["2019-03-20", 0.292], ["2019-03-20", 0.291], ["2019-03-20", 0.291], ["2019-03-20", 0.287], ["2019-03-20", 0.283], ["2019-03-21", 0.28], ["2019-03-21", 0.273], ["2019-03-21", 0.275], ["2019-03-22", 0.275], ["2019-03-22", 0.278], ["2019-03-22", 0.278], ["2019-03-23", 0.275], ["2019-03-26", 0.274], ["2019-03-26", 0.274], ["2019-04-13", 0.269], ["2019-04-13", 0.264], ["2019-04-13", 0.258], ["2019-04-13", 0.256], ["2019-04-13", 0.255], ["2019-04-13", 0.255], ["2019-04-13", 0.254], ["2019-04-13", 0.254], ["2019-04-14", 0.252], ["2019-04-14", 0.248], ["2019-04-14", 0.243], ["2019-04-14", 0.24], ["2019-04-14", 0.234], ["2019-04-14", 0.233], ["2019-04-14", 0.233], ["2019-04-15", 0.23], ["2019-04-16", 0.224], ["2019-04-17", 0.219], ["2019-04-17", 0.216], ["2019-04-19", 0.216], ["2019-04-22", 0.213], ["2019-04-25", 0.209], ["2019-05-03", 0.209], ["2019-05-10", 0.213], ["2019-05-13", 0.207], ["2019-05-16", 0.208], ["2019-05-20", 0.208], ["2019-05-21", 0.203], ["2019-05-22", 0.205], ["2019-05-22", 0.205], ["2019-05-22", 0.205], ["2019-05-26", 0.207], ["2019-05-26", 0.207], ["2019-05-26", 0.206], ["2019-05-26", 0.204], ["2019-05-26", 0.222], ["2019-05-26", 0.221]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2610/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | An election to the Senate of the Netherlands will be held on 27 May 2019, two months after the provincial elections.
The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the States-Provincial of the country's twelve provinces, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens on March 20 2019.
The cabinet in The Netherlands contains representatives from four political parties: VVD, CDA, Christenunie and D66. At the moment they have 38 seats in the Dutch senate with the following breakdown: VVD (13), CDA (12), D66 (10) CU (3). This is more than half of the total 75 seats.
This resolves positively if, after the election, the cabinet consists of the same parties (VVD, CDA, Christenunie and D66), and the sum of senate seats held by these parties continues to be a majority. | true | 2019-05-26 | Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-21 | 2019-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-11", 0.7], ["2019-02-11", 0.75], ["2019-02-11", 0.74], ["2019-02-11", 0.78], ["2019-02-11", 0.711], ["2019-02-11", 0.711], ["2019-02-11", 0.733], ["2019-02-11", 0.741], ["2019-02-11", 0.736], ["2019-02-12", 0.722], ["2019-02-12", 0.716], ["2019-02-12", 0.721], ["2019-02-12", 0.712], ["2019-02-12", 0.704], ["2019-02-12", 0.706], ["2019-02-12", 0.706], ["2019-02-12", 0.699], ["2019-02-12", 0.699], ["2019-02-12", 0.703], ["2019-02-13", 0.699], ["2019-02-13", 0.697], ["2019-02-13", 0.696], ["2019-02-13", 0.698], ["2019-02-13", 0.7], ["2019-02-14", 0.682], ["2019-02-14", 0.682], ["2019-02-15", 0.687], ["2019-02-15", 0.687], ["2019-02-15", 0.691], ["2019-02-15", 0.69], ["2019-02-15", 0.692], ["2019-02-16", 0.69], ["2019-02-16", 0.693], ["2019-02-16", 0.691], ["2019-02-17", 0.691], ["2019-02-22", 0.69], ["2019-02-22", 0.686], ["2019-02-23", 0.683], ["2019-02-23", 0.682], ["2019-02-23", 0.682], ["2019-02-23", 0.68], ["2019-02-23", 0.68], ["2019-02-23", 0.668], ["2019-02-24", 0.665], ["2019-02-24", 0.665], ["2019-02-24", 0.656], ["2019-02-25", 0.652], ["2019-02-25", 0.652], ["2019-02-26", 0.651], ["2019-02-26", 0.651], ["2019-02-26", 0.653], ["2019-02-26", 0.653], ["2019-02-26", 0.652], ["2019-02-26", 0.654], ["2019-02-27", 0.654], ["2019-02-27", 0.652], ["2019-02-28", 0.654], ["2019-02-28", 0.649], ["2019-03-01", 0.645], ["2019-03-01", 0.641], ["2019-03-01", 0.639], ["2019-03-01", 0.639], ["2019-03-02", 0.639], ["2019-03-02", 0.634], ["2019-03-03", 0.632], ["2019-03-03", 0.632], ["2019-03-03", 0.63], ["2019-03-03", 0.63], ["2019-03-03", 0.629], ["2019-03-07", 0.629], ["2019-03-09", 0.633], ["2019-03-09", 0.633], ["2019-03-10", 0.631], ["2019-03-14", 0.631], ["2019-03-15", 0.63], ["2019-03-16", 0.631], ["2019-03-16", 0.631], ["2019-03-18", 0.635], ["2019-03-19", 0.634], ["2019-03-19", 0.635], ["2019-03-21", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.634], ["2019-03-22", 0.63], ["2019-03-25", 0.634], ["2019-03-25", 0.632], ["2019-03-27", 0.627], ["2019-03-27", 0.627], ["2019-03-28", 0.629], ["2019-03-28", 0.629], ["2019-03-29", 0.631], ["2019-03-29", 0.631], ["2019-03-29", 0.631], ["2019-03-29", 0.64], ["2019-03-30", 0.64], ["2019-03-30", 0.639], ["2019-03-30", 0.641], ["2019-03-30", 0.64]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2613/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Sir Richard Branson announced in February 2019 that he "hopes" to fly to space, aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, on the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing.
Will he fail?
Resolves negatively if Richard Branson is both alive and at an altitude above 80km at any point on 2019-07-20. The way he reached that altitude does not matter to resolution. Resolves positively in all other cases (he doesn't try, he tries but fails, etc.). | true | 2019-03-30 | Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-15 | 2019-02-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-08", 0.46], ["2019-02-08", 0.417], ["2019-02-08", 0.478], ["2019-02-08", 0.478], ["2019-02-09", 0.438], ["2019-02-09", 0.46], ["2019-02-09", 0.449], ["2019-02-09", 0.435], ["2019-02-09", 0.427], ["2019-02-09", 0.41], ["2019-02-09", 0.41], ["2019-02-09", 0.451], ["2019-02-09", 0.451], ["2019-02-09", 0.454], ["2019-02-09", 0.456], ["2019-02-09", 0.469], ["2019-02-09", 0.469], ["2019-02-09", 0.449], ["2019-02-09", 0.449], ["2019-02-09", 0.449], ["2019-02-09", 0.45], ["2019-02-09", 0.447], ["2019-02-10", 0.447], ["2019-02-10", 0.439], ["2019-02-10", 0.446], ["2019-02-10", 0.446], ["2019-02-10", 0.448], ["2019-02-10", 0.457], ["2019-02-10", 0.455], ["2019-02-10", 0.455], ["2019-02-10", 0.455], ["2019-02-11", 0.456], ["2019-02-11", 0.456], ["2019-02-11", 0.466], ["2019-02-11", 0.466], ["2019-02-11", 0.466], ["2019-02-11", 0.466], ["2019-02-11", 0.47], ["2019-02-11", 0.476], ["2019-02-11", 0.475], ["2019-02-12", 0.476], ["2019-02-12", 0.477], ["2019-02-12", 0.442], ["2019-02-12", 0.434], ["2019-02-12", 0.433], ["2019-02-12", 0.43], ["2019-02-12", 0.439], ["2019-02-12", 0.447], ["2019-02-12", 0.449], ["2019-02-12", 0.445], ["2019-02-12", 0.443], ["2019-02-12", 0.44], ["2019-02-12", 0.436], ["2019-02-12", 0.433], ["2019-02-12", 0.425], ["2019-02-12", 0.422], ["2019-02-12", 0.408], ["2019-02-12", 0.408], ["2019-02-12", 0.405], ["2019-02-12", 0.405], ["2019-02-12", 0.401], ["2019-02-12", 0.396], ["2019-02-12", 0.39], ["2019-02-12", 0.38], ["2019-02-12", 0.374], ["2019-02-12", 0.367], ["2019-02-12", 0.363], ["2019-02-12", 0.362], ["2019-02-12", 0.357], ["2019-02-13", 0.359], ["2019-02-13", 0.36], ["2019-02-13", 0.36], ["2019-02-13", 0.359], ["2019-02-13", 0.354], ["2019-02-13", 0.343], ["2019-02-13", 0.336], ["2019-02-13", 0.33], ["2019-02-13", 0.328], ["2019-02-13", 0.32], ["2019-02-13", 0.313], ["2019-02-13", 0.309], ["2019-02-13", 0.304], ["2019-02-13", 0.302], ["2019-02-13", 0.304], ["2019-02-13", 0.289], ["2019-02-13", 0.29], ["2019-02-13", 0.277], ["2019-02-13", 0.275], ["2019-02-14", 0.275], ["2019-02-14", 0.272], ["2019-02-14", 0.267], ["2019-02-14", 0.266], ["2019-02-14", 0.266], ["2019-02-14", 0.261], ["2019-02-14", 0.26], ["2019-02-14", 0.259], ["2019-02-14", 0.255], ["2019-02-14", 0.259], ["2019-02-14", 0.258], ["2019-02-14", 0.258], ["2019-02-14", 0.257]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2614/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The recent 35-day government shut down was ended with a 3-week temporary funding bill. the funding lasts through February 15th; if a shutdown occurs, it will begin on the 16th.
Will that shutdown occur?
The question resolves positively if there is some lapse of funding for some federal departments and services on February 16th. Negative resolution occurs if a funding bill is approved by the president and both chambers of congress, with a retroactive closing date 24 hours prior. | true | 2019-02-14 | Will the US government shut down on February 16th? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-21 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.75], ["2019-02-26", 0.755], ["2019-02-26", 0.787], ["2019-02-26", 0.778], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.698], ["2019-02-26", 0.673], ["2019-02-26", 0.676], ["2019-02-27", 0.676], ["2019-02-27", 0.675], ["2019-02-27", 0.675], ["2019-02-27", 0.668], ["2019-02-27", 0.695], ["2019-02-27", 0.689], ["2019-02-27", 0.682], ["2019-02-27", 0.682], ["2019-02-27", 0.681], ["2019-02-27", 0.679], ["2019-02-27", 0.675], ["2019-02-27", 0.681], ["2019-02-28", 0.682], ["2019-02-28", 0.682], ["2019-02-28", 0.685], ["2019-02-28", 0.695], ["2019-02-28", 0.695], ["2019-02-28", 0.702], ["2019-02-28", 0.701], ["2019-03-01", 0.701], ["2019-03-01", 0.7], ["2019-03-02", 0.699], ["2019-03-02", 0.699], ["2019-03-02", 0.698], ["2019-03-02", 0.711], ["2019-03-02", 0.715], ["2019-03-03", 0.712], ["2019-03-03", 0.715], ["2019-03-03", 0.712], ["2019-03-03", 0.712], ["2019-03-03", 0.712], ["2019-03-05", 0.713], ["2019-03-05", 0.715], ["2019-03-07", 0.712], ["2019-03-13", 0.709], ["2019-03-17", 0.71], ["2019-03-18", 0.71], ["2019-03-19", 0.709], ["2019-03-24", 0.706], ["2019-03-27", 0.705], ["2019-03-27", 0.703], ["2019-03-29", 0.706], ["2019-04-02", 0.706], ["2019-04-06", 0.7], ["2019-04-17", 0.7], ["2019-04-20", 0.7], ["2019-04-20", 0.7], ["2019-04-22", 0.701], ["2019-04-25", 0.701], ["2019-04-27", 0.708], ["2019-04-28", 0.706], ["2019-04-30", 0.705], ["2019-05-01", 0.702], ["2019-05-05", 0.702], ["2019-05-06", 0.702], ["2019-05-08", 0.698], ["2019-05-16", 0.698], ["2019-05-20", 0.7], ["2019-05-29", 0.7], ["2019-05-29", 0.699], ["2019-05-29", 0.699], ["2019-05-29", 0.699], ["2019-05-29", 0.699], ["2019-05-30", 0.699], ["2019-05-30", 0.697], ["2019-06-07", 0.695], ["2019-06-09", 0.695], ["2019-06-09", 0.693], ["2019-06-11", 0.69], ["2019-06-11", 0.691], ["2019-06-11", 0.692], ["2019-06-15", 0.69], ["2019-06-16", 0.689], ["2019-06-16", 0.689], ["2019-06-16", 0.69], ["2019-06-19", 0.688], ["2019-06-20", 0.686], ["2019-06-20", 0.685], ["2019-06-24", 0.685], ["2019-06-26", 0.685], ["2019-06-27", 0.686], ["2019-06-28", 0.686], ["2019-06-29", 0.687], ["2019-06-29", 0.687], ["2019-06-30", 0.685], ["2019-06-30", 0.685], ["2019-06-30", 0.683], ["2019-06-30", 0.683], ["2019-06-30", 0.683], ["2019-06-30", 0.683], ["2019-06-30", 0.683], ["2019-06-30", 0.685]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2624/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
The decline in crime rates in the US since the 1990s has been incredibly pronounced. Between 1993 and 2017, violent crime fell by 49 percent, according to data from the FBI. (If you instead poll Americans on whether they were victims of a crime, which sometimes gets different results than looking at arrest rates, violent crime looks to have fallen by 73 percent.) Violent crime rates declined almost every individual year, except 2004-2006 and 2014-2016. We don’t know all of the causes of the fall in crime (lead poisoning likely has something to do with it), but I expect the trend to continue. —KP
Future Perfect's prediction: 80%**
The question resolves positive if the FBI's annual Crime in the United States report indicates that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union
Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018
Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019
Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Related Non-Series Questions:
How many homicides will there be in London in 2019? | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.58], ["2019-02-27", 0.673], ["2019-02-28", 0.669], ["2019-03-01", 0.648], ["2019-03-02", 0.646], ["2019-03-03", 0.641], ["2019-03-03", 0.638], ["2019-03-04", 0.646], ["2019-03-07", 0.646], ["2019-03-10", 0.646], ["2019-03-12", 0.645], ["2019-03-13", 0.638], ["2019-03-14", 0.638], ["2019-03-15", 0.641], ["2019-03-17", 0.641], ["2019-03-18", 0.639], ["2019-03-19", 0.632], ["2019-03-19", 0.631], ["2019-03-21", 0.639], ["2019-03-21", 0.64], ["2019-03-22", 0.64], ["2019-03-23", 0.642], ["2019-03-25", 0.644], ["2019-03-26", 0.644], ["2019-03-27", 0.641], ["2019-03-28", 0.647], ["2019-03-29", 0.644], ["2019-03-30", 0.643], ["2019-04-01", 0.643], ["2019-04-06", 0.645], ["2019-04-08", 0.645], ["2019-04-08", 0.644], ["2019-04-09", 0.646], ["2019-04-12", 0.646], ["2019-04-12", 0.649], ["2019-04-14", 0.648], ["2019-04-16", 0.648], ["2019-04-17", 0.646], ["2019-04-20", 0.639], ["2019-04-21", 0.639], ["2019-04-27", 0.639], ["2019-05-03", 0.644], ["2019-05-03", 0.644], ["2019-05-05", 0.643], ["2019-05-06", 0.635], ["2019-05-07", 0.634], ["2019-05-08", 0.636], ["2019-05-09", 0.635], ["2019-05-09", 0.627], ["2019-05-16", 0.627], ["2019-05-17", 0.62], ["2019-05-20", 0.62], ["2019-05-21", 0.619], ["2019-05-22", 0.606], ["2019-05-24", 0.606], ["2019-05-24", 0.606], ["2019-05-25", 0.602], ["2019-05-26", 0.602], ["2019-05-27", 0.601], ["2019-05-28", 0.597], ["2019-05-29", 0.594], ["2019-05-30", 0.595], ["2019-06-02", 0.595], ["2019-06-03", 0.594], ["2019-06-04", 0.594], ["2019-06-05", 0.595], ["2019-06-07", 0.595], ["2019-06-13", 0.594], ["2019-06-14", 0.594], ["2019-06-14", 0.593], ["2019-06-15", 0.595], ["2019-06-16", 0.594], ["2019-06-18", 0.594], ["2019-06-18", 0.595], ["2019-06-19", 0.595], ["2019-06-20", 0.596], ["2019-06-21", 0.593], ["2019-06-22", 0.591], ["2019-06-22", 0.591], ["2019-06-23", 0.591], ["2019-06-24", 0.593], ["2019-06-25", 0.594], ["2019-06-26", 0.596], ["2019-06-27", 0.596], ["2019-06-28", 0.59], ["2019-06-28", 0.583], ["2019-06-29", 0.582], ["2019-06-30", 0.572], ["2019-07-01", 0.573], ["2019-07-02", 0.566], ["2019-07-03", 0.564], ["2019-07-03", 0.562], ["2019-07-05", 0.562], ["2019-07-07", 0.558], ["2019-07-08", 0.558], ["2019-07-09", 0.56], ["2019-07-10", 0.559], ["2019-07-12", 0.561], ["2019-07-13", 0.561], ["2019-07-14", 0.556], ["2019-07-15", 0.559]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2625/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have, like many effective altruists before them, made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2019 forecasts is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms, and we at Metaculus of course support their endeavor. Now, if we can just encourage the other media outlets to follow suit, "the discourse" will be saved.
With Future Perfect's blessing, we've taken a subset of their 2019 predictions and tweaked them, minimally, for Metaculus user consumption. In some cases we've also linked to any relevant existing Metaculus questions.
With your help, we can make 2019 the most shrewdly predicted year ever.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
The things that would have to happen for the UK to backtrack on Brexit before its planned departure from the EU on March 29 seem, on their own, quite unlikely to me, and less likely when put together. Option 1 is that Theresa May calls a new referendum (Updated PredictIt price: 8 cents) and then “Remain” wins, which polling suggests is possible, though the margins are close. Option 2 is that the Conservatives’ Democratic Unionist Party partners break from the coalition, forcing a new election (Updated PredictIt Price: 4 cents), Jeremy Corbyn and Labour win (it’s tight), and they either cancel Brexit unilaterally or call a new referendum. Corbyn publicly pretended to support Remain during the referendum, but I think it’s pretty obvious he wants to leave the EU, and in any case, he’ll never go that far out on a limb to prevent Brexit from happening. —DM
Future Perfect's prediction: 80%**
The question resolves positive if
The UK leaves with an withdrawal agreement in 2019 with a transitional period (during which time the UK and EU continues to operate under Single Market rules) ending in or before 2025.
The UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement in 2019 (i.e. a "no-deal" Brexit occurs)
(clarification, March 2, 2019) positive resolution need not require ratification of the terms of UK's exit, and therefore a "no-deal" counts toward a positive resolution. Moreover, the UK leaving with a withdrawal agreement also counts toward a positive resolution, provided the transitional period ends by the end of 2025.
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Q2. US homicides will decline
Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018
Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019
Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Related Non-Series Questions:
Will the UK actually leave the EU?
Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?
The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?
Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?
Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit? | true | 2019-07-15 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.64], ["2019-02-26", 0.64], ["2019-02-26", 0.62], ["2019-02-27", 0.633], ["2019-02-27", 0.65], ["2019-02-27", 0.684], ["2019-02-27", 0.669], ["2019-02-27", 0.669], ["2019-02-27", 0.616], ["2019-02-27", 0.628], ["2019-02-27", 0.631], ["2019-02-27", 0.631], ["2019-02-27", 0.657], ["2019-02-27", 0.657], ["2019-02-28", 0.666], ["2019-02-28", 0.695], ["2019-02-28", 0.695], ["2019-02-28", 0.697], ["2019-02-28", 0.703], ["2019-02-28", 0.705], ["2019-02-28", 0.699], ["2019-02-28", 0.699], ["2019-02-28", 0.699], ["2019-02-28", 0.696], ["2019-02-28", 0.696], ["2019-03-01", 0.699], ["2019-03-01", 0.702], ["2019-03-01", 0.702], ["2019-03-01", 0.705], ["2019-03-01", 0.705], ["2019-03-01", 0.706], ["2019-03-02", 0.706], ["2019-03-02", 0.705], ["2019-03-02", 0.707], ["2019-03-03", 0.707], ["2019-03-03", 0.714], ["2019-03-03", 0.716], ["2019-03-03", 0.715], ["2019-03-05", 0.715], ["2019-03-05", 0.712], ["2019-03-06", 0.712], ["2019-03-07", 0.712], ["2019-03-07", 0.708], ["2019-03-07", 0.709], ["2019-03-07", 0.708], ["2019-03-08", 0.71], ["2019-03-10", 0.71], ["2019-03-19", 0.711], ["2019-03-22", 0.714], ["2019-03-27", 0.714], ["2019-03-27", 0.713], ["2019-03-29", 0.713], ["2019-03-29", 0.718], ["2019-04-01", 0.718], ["2019-04-06", 0.721], ["2019-04-09", 0.721], ["2019-04-09", 0.719], ["2019-04-14", 0.721], ["2019-04-27", 0.722], ["2019-05-03", 0.722], ["2019-05-03", 0.725], ["2019-05-04", 0.727], ["2019-05-06", 0.726], ["2019-05-06", 0.724], ["2019-05-07", 0.724], ["2019-05-07", 0.724], ["2019-05-07", 0.728], ["2019-05-09", 0.729], ["2019-05-09", 0.729], ["2019-05-13", 0.728], ["2019-05-14", 0.728], ["2019-05-14", 0.724], ["2019-05-16", 0.727], ["2019-05-16", 0.727], ["2019-05-16", 0.728], ["2019-05-20", 0.727], ["2019-05-29", 0.727], ["2019-05-29", 0.727], ["2019-05-31", 0.725], ["2019-06-03", 0.725], ["2019-06-03", 0.725], ["2019-06-07", 0.722], ["2019-06-08", 0.723], ["2019-06-15", 0.722], ["2019-06-16", 0.722], ["2019-06-19", 0.72], ["2019-06-20", 0.72], ["2019-06-22", 0.719], ["2019-06-22", 0.72], ["2019-06-24", 0.718], ["2019-06-24", 0.717], ["2019-06-26", 0.717], ["2019-06-26", 0.718], ["2019-06-28", 0.718], ["2019-06-28", 0.716], ["2019-06-28", 0.716], ["2019-06-28", 0.715], ["2019-06-29", 0.713], ["2019-06-30", 0.713], ["2019-06-30", 0.714], ["2019-06-30", 0.715]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2626/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
In 2016, more than 9 billion animals were killed for food in the US. Meat consumption per capita has stayed steady or arguably fallen, but as the population is increasing, overall meat consumption has been rising. Plant-based foods might change this someday, but for now the biggest factor that drives meat consumption is actually the economy — people buy more meat when they’re doing better financially. I expect that if we see a strong economy for another year, more animals will be killed for food —KP.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**
The question resolves positive if the numbers as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations indicate that more animals were killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union
Q2. US homicides will decline
Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018
Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019
Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Related Non-Series Questions:
Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?
A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?
A decrease in US meat production by 2025?
Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020? | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018 | metaculus | 1 |
2019-09-29 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.63], ["2019-02-26", 0.498], ["2019-02-26", 0.498], ["2019-02-26", 0.537], ["2019-02-26", 0.56], ["2019-02-27", 0.558], ["2019-02-27", 0.558], ["2019-02-27", 0.562], ["2019-02-27", 0.578], ["2019-02-27", 0.568], ["2019-02-27", 0.552], ["2019-02-27", 0.545], ["2019-02-27", 0.554], ["2019-02-27", 0.552], ["2019-02-27", 0.549], ["2019-02-27", 0.549], ["2019-02-28", 0.541], ["2019-02-28", 0.541], ["2019-02-28", 0.546], ["2019-02-28", 0.558], ["2019-02-28", 0.553], ["2019-02-28", 0.561], ["2019-02-28", 0.567], ["2019-03-01", 0.568], ["2019-03-02", 0.568], ["2019-03-02", 0.568], ["2019-03-03", 0.572], ["2019-03-03", 0.571], ["2019-03-05", 0.573], ["2019-03-05", 0.573], ["2019-03-17", 0.569], ["2019-03-18", 0.569], ["2019-03-19", 0.569], ["2019-03-20", 0.571], ["2019-03-20", 0.572], ["2019-03-20", 0.578], ["2019-03-23", 0.578], ["2019-03-27", 0.581], ["2019-03-27", 0.581], ["2019-04-03", 0.588], ["2019-04-09", 0.588], ["2019-04-12", 0.59], ["2019-04-13", 0.589], ["2019-04-15", 0.595], ["2019-04-23", 0.6], ["2019-04-30", 0.599], ["2019-05-07", 0.599], ["2019-05-16", 0.602], ["2019-05-19", 0.602], ["2019-05-19", 0.601], ["2019-05-29", 0.601], ["2019-05-29", 0.601], ["2019-05-30", 0.601], ["2019-05-30", 0.605], ["2019-05-31", 0.606], ["2019-06-03", 0.614], ["2019-06-07", 0.614], ["2019-06-07", 0.616], ["2019-06-08", 0.613], ["2019-06-09", 0.611], ["2019-06-09", 0.613], ["2019-06-09", 0.613], ["2019-06-11", 0.613], ["2019-06-14", 0.613], ["2019-06-15", 0.613], ["2019-06-16", 0.613], ["2019-06-17", 0.612], ["2019-06-17", 0.611], ["2019-06-18", 0.61], ["2019-06-18", 0.61], ["2019-06-19", 0.612], ["2019-06-20", 0.614], ["2019-06-22", 0.617], ["2019-06-22", 0.617], ["2019-06-22", 0.619], ["2019-06-22", 0.618], ["2019-06-22", 0.619], ["2019-06-23", 0.62], ["2019-06-24", 0.621], ["2019-06-26", 0.621], ["2019-06-26", 0.622], ["2019-06-27", 0.626], ["2019-06-28", 0.626], ["2019-06-28", 0.624], ["2019-06-28", 0.626], ["2019-06-28", 0.626], ["2019-06-28", 0.629], ["2019-06-28", 0.629], ["2019-06-28", 0.63], ["2019-06-29", 0.633], ["2019-06-30", 0.633], ["2019-06-30", 0.637], ["2019-06-30", 0.636], ["2019-06-30", 0.636], ["2019-06-30", 0.636], ["2019-06-30", 0.638], ["2019-06-30", 0.645], ["2019-06-30", 0.645], ["2019-06-30", 0.646], ["2019-06-30", 0.646], ["2019-06-30", 0.648]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2627/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
My standard here is PredictWise, a website that collates odds from bookies and prediction markets to estimate the likelihood that bettors — people putting down actual money predicting the 2020 primaries — assign to various candidates. This prediction will hold up if no Democrat’s odds of winning the nomination break 50 percent at any point during 2019.
Someone in the crowded Democratic field might truly break out and start trouncing everybody. In 2003, Howard Dean’s star rose so much that the Iowa Electronic Markets started giving him a greater than 50 percent chance of winning the nomination. But that seems unusual. Bob Dole didn’t crack 50 percent until pretty late in the 1996 cycle, which he dominated to a far greater degree than I expect anyone to in 2020. No Republican in 2007 came close —DM.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**
The question resolves positive if no Democratic candidate reaches 50% probability of receiving the nomination according to PredictWise.
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union
Q2. US homicides will decline
Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018
Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Related Non-Series Questions:
Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?
Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?
Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019 | metaculus | 0 |
2020-02-03 | 2019-02-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-02-26", 0.61], ["2019-02-26", 0.788], ["2019-02-26", 0.74], ["2019-02-26", 0.8], ["2019-02-27", 0.8], ["2019-02-27", 0.793], ["2019-02-27", 0.793], ["2019-02-27", 0.796], ["2019-02-27", 0.745], ["2019-02-27", 0.733], ["2019-02-27", 0.733], ["2019-02-27", 0.743], ["2019-02-27", 0.735], ["2019-02-27", 0.724], ["2019-02-27", 0.724], ["2019-02-28", 0.724], ["2019-02-28", 0.726], ["2019-02-28", 0.726], ["2019-02-28", 0.71], ["2019-02-28", 0.71], ["2019-02-28", 0.696], ["2019-02-28", 0.698], ["2019-02-28", 0.7], ["2019-02-28", 0.702], ["2019-02-28", 0.702], ["2019-03-01", 0.704], ["2019-03-01", 0.703], ["2019-03-01", 0.69], ["2019-03-02", 0.69], ["2019-03-02", 0.688], ["2019-03-02", 0.688], ["2019-03-03", 0.691], ["2019-03-03", 0.691], ["2019-03-03", 0.689], ["2019-03-05", 0.691], ["2019-03-05", 0.69], ["2019-03-06", 0.696], ["2019-03-19", 0.696], ["2019-03-27", 0.696], ["2019-03-27", 0.698], ["2019-03-29", 0.697], ["2019-03-30", 0.7], ["2019-04-02", 0.7], ["2019-04-06", 0.706], ["2019-04-08", 0.704], ["2019-04-09", 0.702], ["2019-04-12", 0.704], ["2019-04-15", 0.698], ["2019-04-17", 0.689], ["2019-04-20", 0.688], ["2019-04-30", 0.688], ["2019-05-02", 0.687], ["2019-05-02", 0.688], ["2019-05-06", 0.687], ["2019-05-07", 0.687], ["2019-05-16", 0.687], ["2019-05-17", 0.687], ["2019-05-17", 0.69], ["2019-05-19", 0.69], ["2019-05-20", 0.69], ["2019-05-29", 0.689], ["2019-05-29", 0.689], ["2019-05-30", 0.69], ["2019-06-05", 0.689], ["2019-06-07", 0.686], ["2019-06-08", 0.688], ["2019-06-08", 0.687], ["2019-06-09", 0.688], ["2019-06-11", 0.688], ["2019-06-11", 0.689], ["2019-06-15", 0.688], ["2019-06-16", 0.687], ["2019-06-16", 0.683], ["2019-06-16", 0.683], ["2019-06-19", 0.685], ["2019-06-20", 0.684], ["2019-06-22", 0.686], ["2019-06-22", 0.686], ["2019-06-24", 0.687], ["2019-06-26", 0.686], ["2019-06-26", 0.686], ["2019-06-27", 0.69], ["2019-06-28", 0.691], ["2019-06-28", 0.691], ["2019-06-28", 0.689], ["2019-06-29", 0.69], ["2019-06-29", 0.689], ["2019-06-30", 0.693], ["2019-06-30", 0.692], ["2019-06-30", 0.692], ["2019-06-30", 0.692], ["2019-06-30", 0.687], ["2019-06-30", 0.687], ["2019-06-30", 0.687], ["2019-06-30", 0.687], ["2019-06-30", 0.688], ["2019-06-30", 0.69], ["2019-06-30", 0.69], ["2019-06-30", 0.69], ["2019-06-30", 0.691], ["2019-06-30", 0.691]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2629/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.
From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:
My intuitions about questions like these are often surprisingly off. I intuitively consider the question, Is this trending upward or downward? But that’s far from the only thing that matters when predicting whether this year’s temperatures will be higher than last year’s. It’s also important to have a sense of how noisy the trend is. I looked at this data from NASA to see how I would have done making this prediction every year from 2002 to the present. I’d have been right 10 times and wrong six times.
My understanding is that if you have a clear understanding of El Niño and La Niña, and how they affect global temperature patterns, you can do better than that — but I don’t and I can’t. I give it a 60 percent chance that this year will be warmer than 2018. I’m much more confident that it’ll be among the five warmest years on record — all of the past few years have been —KP.
Future Perfect's prediction: 60%**
The question resolves positive if the average world temperature change according to NASA shows an increase in 2019 relative to 2018
Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:
Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union
Q2. US homicides will decline
Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018
Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019
Q6. Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain
Related Non-Series Questions:
What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?
What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?
Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?
How much global warming by 2100? | true | 2019-07-01 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018 | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-04 | 2019-02-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-17", 0.36], ["2019-03-18", 0.261], ["2019-03-19", 0.302], ["2019-03-20", 0.286], ["2019-03-21", 0.286], ["2019-03-22", 0.288], ["2019-03-22", 0.294], ["2019-03-25", 0.297], ["2019-03-27", 0.298], ["2019-03-27", 0.299], ["2019-04-02", 0.299], ["2019-04-08", 0.298], ["2019-04-16", 0.299], ["2019-04-18", 0.299], ["2019-04-18", 0.308], ["2019-04-21", 0.299], ["2019-04-29", 0.299], ["2019-05-02", 0.304], ["2019-05-05", 0.304], ["2019-05-14", 0.304], ["2019-05-19", 0.304], ["2019-05-21", 0.294], ["2019-05-21", 0.293], ["2019-05-22", 0.267], ["2019-05-23", 0.262], ["2019-05-24", 0.262], ["2019-05-25", 0.263], ["2019-05-26", 0.253], ["2019-05-27", 0.248], ["2019-05-27", 0.249], ["2019-05-29", 0.248], ["2019-06-03", 0.248], ["2019-06-05", 0.245], ["2019-06-07", 0.252], ["2019-06-08", 0.252], ["2019-06-11", 0.25], ["2019-06-20", 0.25], ["2019-06-29", 0.251], ["2019-06-29", 0.251], ["2019-07-27", 0.252], ["2019-08-04", 0.249], ["2019-08-05", 0.239], ["2019-08-07", 0.239], ["2019-08-08", 0.236], ["2019-08-12", 0.238], ["2019-08-13", 0.234], ["2019-08-13", 0.232], ["2019-08-15", 0.23], ["2019-08-22", 0.23], ["2019-08-22", 0.229], ["2019-08-23", 0.23], ["2019-08-24", 0.236], ["2019-08-26", 0.236], ["2019-08-27", 0.233], ["2019-08-28", 0.233], ["2019-08-29", 0.233], ["2019-09-02", 0.235], ["2019-09-05", 0.233], ["2019-09-09", 0.234], ["2019-09-11", 0.234], ["2019-09-12", 0.232], ["2019-09-14", 0.23], ["2019-09-15", 0.23], ["2019-09-15", 0.23], ["2019-09-20", 0.238], ["2019-09-22", 0.252], ["2019-09-28", 0.257], ["2019-10-03", 0.258], ["2019-10-12", 0.258], ["2019-10-15", 0.258], ["2019-10-22", 0.256], ["2019-10-24", 0.253], ["2019-10-29", 0.252], ["2019-10-30", 0.259], ["2019-10-31", 0.26], ["2019-11-01", 0.259], ["2019-11-02", 0.256], ["2019-11-06", 0.258], ["2019-11-11", 0.265], ["2019-11-11", 0.265], ["2019-11-16", 0.265], ["2019-11-18", 0.265], ["2019-11-19", 0.266], ["2019-11-20", 0.273], ["2019-11-23", 0.273], ["2019-11-24", 0.273], ["2019-11-25", 0.272], ["2019-11-27", 0.27], ["2019-11-30", 0.269], ["2019-12-05", 0.266], ["2019-12-06", 0.266], ["2019-12-11", 0.266], ["2019-12-11", 0.266], ["2019-12-12", 0.264], ["2019-12-13", 0.264], ["2019-12-17", 0.262], ["2019-12-19", 0.261], ["2019-12-19", 0.268], ["2019-12-21", 0.267], ["2019-12-22", 0.261], ["2019-12-23", 0.262]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2631/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In a recent interview the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, stated that Tesla would be able to roll out a fully autonomous autopilot (software) for their fleet by the end of 2020 that would enable a driver to fall asleep behind the wheel and wake up in the parking lot of their destination. “I think we will be ‘feature-complete’ on full self-driving this year (2019), meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year,” Musk said. He caveats that doesn't mean the autopilot will always work, instead claiming Tesla will enter the “march of nines”, increasing certainty incrementally.
That being said he has little influence on the regulators’ confidence, certainty, and conservatism, which can vary a lot between jurisdictions.
Currently, Tesla's automated driving features is currently classified as a level 2 on the a five level scale according to the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE International) five levels of vehicle automation.
By the end of 2020, will Tesla roll out autopilot features that are classified by SAE International as level 4 or 5 on their 2016 five point scale?
Resolves positive when: Autopilot of described SAE level 4 or 5, as defined by SAE international's 2016 classification, is rolled out on at least county level anywhere (may not be the US).
SAE level 4 is characterized as ("mind off"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, and no driver attention is ever required for safety, e.g. the driver may safely go to sleep or leave the driver's seat. Self-driving is supported only in limited spatial areas (geofenced) or under special circumstances, like traffic jams. Outside of these areas or circumstances, the vehicle must be able to safely abort the trip, e.g. park the car, if the driver does not retake control.
SAE level 5 is defined as Level 5 ("steering wheel optional"): No human intervention is required at all. An example would be a robotic taxi.
Resolves positive if any autopilot system, or "feature" released by Tesla before the end of 2020 is is judged by experts and/or common consensus to meet SAE's 2016 classification as level 4 or above. Note that this judgement may occur after 2020, but must involve an autopilot system or version released before the end of 2020. | true | 2019-12-23 | Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-01 | 2019-03-13 | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/teslas-elon-m\u2026"] | binary | [["2019-03-17", 0.9], ["2019-03-17", 0.9], ["2019-03-17", 0.915], ["2019-03-17", 0.938], ["2019-03-18", 0.938], ["2019-03-18", 0.91], ["2019-03-18", 0.908], ["2019-03-18", 0.9], ["2019-03-18", 0.9], ["2019-03-18", 0.905], ["2019-03-18", 0.896], ["2019-03-18", 0.896], ["2019-03-18", 0.89], ["2019-03-18", 0.89], ["2019-03-18", 0.866], ["2019-03-19", 0.844], ["2019-03-19", 0.839], ["2019-03-19", 0.839], ["2019-03-19", 0.803], ["2019-03-19", 0.784], ["2019-03-20", 0.785], ["2019-03-20", 0.784], ["2019-03-20", 0.796], ["2019-03-21", 0.796], ["2019-03-21", 0.791], ["2019-03-21", 0.794], ["2019-03-22", 0.79], ["2019-03-22", 0.795], ["2019-03-22", 0.795], ["2019-03-23", 0.792], ["2019-03-23", 0.778], ["2019-03-23", 0.777], ["2019-03-24", 0.776], ["2019-03-24", 0.778], ["2019-03-25", 0.777], ["2019-03-25", 0.777], ["2019-03-25", 0.779], ["2019-03-25", 0.779], ["2019-03-25", 0.766], ["2019-03-26", 0.766], ["2019-03-27", 0.767], ["2019-03-27", 0.76], ["2019-03-27", 0.76], ["2019-03-27", 0.756], ["2019-03-27", 0.759], ["2019-03-27", 0.748], ["2019-03-27", 0.755], ["2019-03-27", 0.753], ["2019-03-27", 0.756], ["2019-03-27", 0.753], ["2019-03-27", 0.755], ["2019-03-28", 0.753], ["2019-03-28", 0.753], ["2019-03-28", 0.748], ["2019-03-28", 0.748], ["2019-03-29", 0.748], ["2019-03-29", 0.749], ["2019-03-29", 0.749], ["2019-03-29", 0.751], ["2019-03-29", 0.75], ["2019-03-30", 0.75], ["2019-03-30", 0.752], ["2019-03-31", 0.753], ["2019-03-31", 0.753], ["2019-03-31", 0.756], ["2019-03-31", 0.759], ["2019-03-31", 0.76], ["2019-03-31", 0.76], ["2019-04-01", 0.761], ["2019-04-01", 0.762], ["2019-04-01", 0.758], ["2019-04-01", 0.758], ["2019-04-01", 0.756], ["2019-04-01", 0.76], ["2019-04-02", 0.762], ["2019-04-02", 0.76], ["2019-04-02", 0.762]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2647/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Will Elon Musk still be the CEO of Tesla at the end of the year? The SEC is taking close notice of his recent activities, and the narrative seems to be shifting away from him.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/teslas-elon-m…
Resolves as "Yes" if Musk is still the active Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA).
Resolves as "No" if he is suspended, 'promoted to a strategic advisory role', or fired, or has resigned, or any other functionally equivalent outcome.
Resolves as ambiguous if he still retains the title 'CEO' but a new position has been created where a different person assumes significant aspects of the role he currently has. | true | 2019-04-02 | Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-02-12 | 2019-03-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-19", 0.05], ["2019-03-21", 0.058], ["2019-03-22", 0.086], ["2019-03-25", 0.084], ["2019-03-26", 0.086], ["2019-03-28", 0.086], ["2019-03-30", 0.086], ["2019-04-04", 0.085], ["2019-04-04", 0.087], ["2019-04-08", 0.088], ["2019-04-08", 0.087], ["2019-04-12", 0.087], ["2019-04-13", 0.084], ["2019-04-15", 0.087], ["2019-04-18", 0.086], ["2019-04-20", 0.089], ["2019-04-22", 0.089], ["2019-04-23", 0.082], ["2019-04-28", 0.082], ["2019-05-01", 0.083], ["2019-05-04", 0.082], ["2019-05-05", 0.081], ["2019-05-08", 0.081], ["2019-05-13", 0.081], ["2019-05-15", 0.08], ["2019-05-22", 0.079], ["2019-05-26", 0.079], ["2019-05-26", 0.08], ["2019-06-02", 0.079], ["2019-06-03", 0.078], ["2019-06-13", 0.078], ["2019-06-15", 0.077], ["2019-06-16", 0.082], ["2019-06-18", 0.082], ["2019-06-19", 0.082], ["2019-06-21", 0.081], ["2019-06-25", 0.081], ["2019-06-25", 0.08], ["2019-06-28", 0.079], ["2019-06-29", 0.078], ["2019-07-11", 0.079], ["2019-07-11", 0.079], ["2019-07-15", 0.078], ["2019-07-20", 0.078], ["2019-07-23", 0.078], ["2019-07-25", 0.078], ["2019-07-30", 0.077], ["2019-08-02", 0.077], ["2019-08-02", 0.077], ["2019-08-05", 0.076], ["2019-08-12", 0.076], ["2019-08-15", 0.076], ["2019-08-16", 0.076], ["2019-08-18", 0.076], ["2019-08-20", 0.075], ["2019-08-23", 0.075], ["2019-08-26", 0.075], ["2019-08-28", 0.074], ["2019-08-30", 0.074], ["2019-09-08", 0.077], ["2019-09-26", 0.077], ["2019-09-28", 0.076], ["2019-09-29", 0.084], ["2019-10-05", 0.084], ["2019-10-08", 0.084], ["2019-10-08", 0.084], ["2019-10-22", 0.084], ["2019-10-24", 0.083], ["2019-10-27", 0.083], ["2019-10-30", 0.083], ["2019-11-04", 0.091], ["2019-11-05", 0.09], ["2019-11-08", 0.09], ["2019-11-20", 0.091], ["2019-12-01", 0.089], ["2019-12-01", 0.09], ["2019-12-14", 0.09], ["2019-12-16", 0.088], ["2019-12-19", 0.09], ["2019-12-27", 0.089], ["2019-12-29", 0.089], ["2019-12-31", 0.092], ["2020-01-01", 0.087], ["2020-01-03", 0.086], ["2020-01-06", 0.086], ["2020-01-07", 0.083], ["2020-01-09", 0.082], ["2020-01-11", 0.08], ["2020-01-13", 0.077], ["2020-01-15", 0.072], ["2020-01-16", 0.071], ["2020-01-21", 0.071], ["2020-01-24", 0.072], ["2020-01-26", 0.071], ["2020-01-29", 0.069], ["2020-01-31", 0.069], ["2020-02-03", 0.068], ["2020-02-05", 0.068], ["2020-02-07", 0.068], ["2020-02-09", 0.065], ["2020-02-11", 0.065]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2657/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Andrew Yang (Wikipedia) is a democratic candidate for president known, among other things, for proposing a Universal Basic Income dubbed the "Freedom Dividend" and a focus on the impact of automation on jobs.
He's relatively young for a presidential candidate, with an entrepreneurial background and an extensive policy platform. Including everything from single-payer healthcare to a "carbon fee and dividend" and the legalization of marijuana.
The Washington Post wrote a piece showing evidence of his growing support: "Andrew Yang is running for president. Haven’t heard of him? You will soon."
Nate Silver has also been tweeting about it (11 March 2019):
"Prediction markets think Andrew Yang has approximately the same chance of winning the Democratic nomination (~4%) as Warren, Klobuchar or Booker."
As can be seen on PredictIt.
But can Yang, a complete outsider, really grab the nomination? We will see.
This resolves positive if Yang is nominated by the Democratic party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2020. | true | 2020-02-12 | Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2019-03-24 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-23", 0.4], ["2019-04-23", 0.475], ["2019-04-23", 0.517], ["2019-04-23", 0.512], ["2019-04-23", 0.538], ["2019-04-23", 0.538], ["2019-04-23", 0.612], ["2019-04-23", 0.619], ["2019-04-23", 0.632], ["2019-04-24", 0.632], ["2019-04-24", 0.605], ["2019-04-24", 0.595], ["2019-04-24", 0.579], ["2019-04-25", 0.579], ["2019-04-25", 0.591], ["2019-04-25", 0.598], ["2019-04-25", 0.601], ["2019-04-25", 0.605], ["2019-04-25", 0.605], ["2019-04-26", 0.605], ["2019-04-26", 0.614], ["2019-04-26", 0.614], ["2019-04-26", 0.61], ["2019-04-28", 0.61], ["2019-04-29", 0.61], ["2019-04-30", 0.61], ["2019-05-05", 0.61], ["2019-05-09", 0.611], ["2019-05-13", 0.61], ["2019-05-31", 0.615], ["2019-06-11", 0.609], ["2019-06-11", 0.606], ["2019-06-14", 0.605], ["2019-07-15", 0.605], ["2019-07-17", 0.607], ["2019-07-21", 0.603], ["2019-08-11", 0.591], ["2019-08-11", 0.599], ["2019-08-26", 0.599], ["2019-09-02", 0.599], ["2019-09-12", 0.611], ["2019-10-24", 0.611], ["2019-11-20", 0.611], ["2019-12-05", 0.611], ["2020-01-08", 0.611], ["2020-01-13", 0.615], ["2020-01-31", 0.622], ["2020-02-04", 0.622], ["2020-02-04", 0.624], ["2020-02-20", 0.622], ["2020-02-22", 0.632], ["2020-02-23", 0.632], ["2020-03-08", 0.631], ["2020-03-10", 0.631], ["2020-03-11", 0.631], ["2020-03-11", 0.629], ["2020-03-11", 0.629], ["2020-03-16", 0.628], ["2020-03-16", 0.634], ["2020-03-17", 0.628], ["2020-03-18", 0.626], ["2020-03-19", 0.626], ["2020-03-23", 0.625], ["2020-03-31", 0.628], ["2020-04-02", 0.628], ["2020-04-02", 0.628], ["2020-04-03", 0.628], ["2020-04-03", 0.628], ["2020-04-04", 0.627], ["2020-04-04", 0.627], ["2020-04-05", 0.627], ["2020-04-12", 0.628], ["2020-04-17", 0.627], ["2020-04-23", 0.627], ["2020-05-01", 0.625], ["2020-05-03", 0.625], ["2020-05-05", 0.628], ["2020-05-09", 0.634], ["2020-05-09", 0.637], ["2020-05-10", 0.637], ["2020-05-11", 0.637], ["2020-05-12", 0.637], ["2020-05-12", 0.643], ["2020-05-15", 0.643], ["2020-05-17", 0.645], ["2020-05-19", 0.645], ["2020-05-26", 0.646], ["2020-05-26", 0.645], ["2020-05-28", 0.645], ["2020-05-30", 0.645], ["2020-05-30", 0.646], ["2020-05-30", 0.649], ["2020-05-31", 0.649], ["2020-05-31", 0.65], ["2020-05-31", 0.65], ["2020-05-31", 0.654], ["2020-05-31", 0.655], ["2020-05-31", 0.655], ["2020-05-31", 0.658], ["2020-05-31", 0.661], ["2020-06-01", 0.662]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Mark Latham is an Australian politician. In general, he is known for courting controversy, as can be seen by the 'Post-political life' section of his Wikipedia page. Until 2017, he was a member of the left-wing Labor Party, and was the leader of the Parliamentary party between the 2nd of December 2003 and the 18th of January 2005, when he also resigned from Parliament. In May 2017, he joined the libertarian Liberal Democrats, only to leave in September 2018 to join the nationalist and right-wing populist party One Nation. Then, on the 23rd of March 2019, he was elected to the upper house (Legislative Council or LC) of the Australian state of New South Wales as a One Nation member. However, given his recent history of changing parties, it's reasonable to wonder whether he will do so again. In this question, we ask:
Will Mark Latham be a member of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party on the 1st of January 2021?
If on that date he is, as expected, still a member of the LC, then resolution will be based on the list of members on that body's website. The question resolves positively if his party name includes the string 'One Nation'. If this list is no longer published online by the LC, or if he is no longer a member of the LC, resolution is based on the reporting of credible Australian news sources (such as ABC News, the Sydney Morning Herald, or the Australian). No reporting on a change of parties shall be interpreted to mean that he is still a member of One Nation. If he is deceased by that date, the question will resolve as ambiguous. | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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A quick recap:
The UK referendum’d to leave the EU. On 29 March 2017 the UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which governs withdrawal from the EU. A withdrawal agreement was negotiated by November last year. It was endorsed by leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries. However, it has not been ratified by UK's parliament, as May's deal was defeated twice. The speaker of the House of Commons ruled out third meaningful vote on same deal, making it necessary to postpone leaving to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
Currently, the UK's withdrawal has been postponed to April 12 if the UK doesn’t ratify the agreement by that date, and May 22 if they do.
Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?
This question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on or before April 12 2019 23:00 UK time. It resolves negatively if Brexit is delayed, or if a deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents the UK's leaving before, or on April 12. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguous. | true | 2019-04-09 | Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-03-25 | 2019-03-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-03-28", 0.5], ["2019-04-01", 0.765], ["2019-04-07", 0.768], ["2019-04-10", 0.77], ["2019-04-18", 0.787], ["2019-04-22", 0.783], ["2019-04-26", 0.801], ["2019-05-03", 0.801], ["2019-05-08", 0.804], ["2019-05-13", 0.804], ["2019-05-21", 0.802], ["2019-05-23", 0.802], ["2019-06-01", 0.8], ["2019-06-08", 0.798], ["2019-06-22", 0.799], ["2019-06-22", 0.799], ["2019-07-08", 0.794], ["2019-07-30", 0.797], ["2019-08-29", 0.788], ["2019-08-30", 0.79], ["2019-09-16", 0.791], ["2019-11-21", 0.792], ["2019-11-21", 0.792], ["2019-12-06", 0.791], ["2019-12-14", 0.792], ["2019-12-22", 0.793], ["2019-12-30", 0.793], ["2020-01-04", 0.797], ["2020-01-13", 0.792], ["2020-01-21", 0.782], ["2020-01-26", 0.782], ["2020-02-01", 0.778], ["2020-02-05", 0.777], ["2020-02-09", 0.778], ["2020-02-15", 0.777], ["2020-02-21", 0.773], ["2020-02-28", 0.773], ["2020-03-03", 0.769], ["2020-03-10", 0.754], ["2020-03-15", 0.643], ["2020-03-20", 0.546], ["2020-03-23", 0.472], ["2020-03-29", 0.429], ["2020-04-02", 0.424], ["2020-04-08", 0.406], ["2020-04-15", 0.347], ["2020-04-20", 0.327], ["2020-04-25", 0.311], ["2020-05-01", 0.3], ["2020-05-07", 0.299], ["2020-05-13", 0.285], ["2020-05-17", 0.285], ["2020-05-22", 0.281], ["2020-06-01", 0.279], ["2020-06-08", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.277], ["2020-06-18", 0.277], ["2020-06-30", 0.276], ["2020-07-07", 0.273], ["2020-07-24", 0.273], ["2020-07-28", 0.273], ["2020-08-02", 0.273], ["2020-08-08", 0.266], ["2020-08-16", 0.263], ["2020-08-23", 0.263], ["2020-09-03", 0.263], ["2020-09-04", 0.262], ["2020-09-13", 0.261], ["2020-09-15", 0.259], ["2020-09-22", 0.259], ["2020-09-25", 0.259], ["2020-10-04", 0.258], ["2020-10-09", 0.258], ["2020-10-13", 0.251], ["2020-10-17", 0.247], ["2020-10-20", 0.246], ["2020-10-29", 0.246], ["2020-11-02", 0.244], ["2020-11-10", 0.242], ["2020-11-15", 0.241], ["2020-11-25", 0.24], ["2020-12-03", 0.24], ["2020-12-07", 0.237], ["2020-12-19", 0.237], ["2020-12-24", 0.236], ["2020-12-29", 0.236], ["2021-01-01", 0.233], ["2021-01-07", 0.231], ["2021-01-13", 0.23], ["2021-01-17", 0.228], ["2021-01-23", 0.227], ["2021-01-27", 0.227], ["2021-02-02", 0.225], ["2021-02-09", 0.222], ["2021-02-14", 0.21], ["2021-02-20", 0.208], ["2021-02-27", 0.202], ["2021-03-07", 0.199], ["2021-03-11", 0.198], ["2021-03-18", 0.19], ["2021-03-24", 0.148]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2669/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The 2008 financial crisis was "considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s".
According to the World Bank (series ID: NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).
Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?
Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.
This question was inspired by this related question and that also-related one. | true | 2021-03-24 | Will World GDP grow every year until 2025? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-02 | 2019-03-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-29", 0.04], ["2019-04-29", 0.135], ["2019-04-29", 0.13], ["2019-04-29", 0.122], ["2019-04-29", 0.122], ["2019-04-29", 0.133], ["2019-04-29", 0.133], ["2019-04-29", 0.138], ["2019-04-29", 0.138], ["2019-04-29", 0.167], ["2019-04-30", 0.167], ["2019-04-30", 0.184], ["2019-04-30", 0.176], ["2019-04-30", 0.189], ["2019-04-30", 0.189], ["2019-05-01", 0.2], ["2019-05-02", 0.2], ["2019-05-05", 0.197], ["2019-05-05", 0.197], ["2019-05-06", 0.212], ["2019-05-09", 0.212], ["2019-05-09", 0.239], ["2019-05-13", 0.238], ["2019-05-16", 0.238], ["2019-05-16", 0.239], ["2019-05-16", 0.239], ["2019-05-16", 0.232], ["2019-05-16", 0.232], ["2019-05-16", 0.231], ["2019-05-16", 0.23], ["2019-05-18", 0.23], ["2019-05-19", 0.227], ["2019-05-19", 0.228], ["2019-05-19", 0.228], ["2019-05-20", 0.23], ["2019-05-21", 0.244], ["2019-05-23", 0.241], ["2019-05-23", 0.241], ["2019-05-27", 0.24], ["2019-05-31", 0.237], ["2019-06-04", 0.228], ["2019-06-05", 0.228], ["2019-06-14", 0.231], ["2019-08-08", 0.231], ["2019-09-08", 0.232], ["2019-10-30", 0.232], ["2019-11-11", 0.234], ["2019-12-03", 0.235], ["2019-12-17", 0.236], ["2019-12-22", 0.238], ["2019-12-22", 0.239], ["2019-12-26", 0.239], ["2019-12-26", 0.24], ["2019-12-26", 0.248], ["2019-12-28", 0.248], ["2019-12-28", 0.246], ["2019-12-30", 0.245], ["2019-12-30", 0.245], ["2019-12-31", 0.248], ["2019-12-31", 0.247], ["2019-12-31", 0.247], ["2020-01-01", 0.247], ["2020-01-01", 0.243], ["2020-01-01", 0.242], ["2020-01-01", 0.242]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this Bloomberg article, and a similar take by the South China Morning Post. They cite this paper by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.
Separately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since "bad debt is not written down". That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.
Note that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance this paper arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in this paper (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.
There was also that moment back in 2010 when Li Keqiang reportedly stated explicitly that "China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.
Thus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?
For resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:
Already-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.
Alternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the Purchasing Manager's Index). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.
For future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.
This resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this Wikipedia page.
In order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the World Bank and preserved the currently official figures in this spreadsheet. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-12 | 2019-03-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-03", 0.8], ["2019-04-03", 0.737], ["2019-04-03", 0.778], ["2019-04-03", 0.778], ["2019-04-03", 0.82], ["2019-04-03", 0.842], ["2019-04-03", 0.842], ["2019-04-03", 0.835], ["2019-04-03", 0.859], ["2019-04-03", 0.859], ["2019-04-03", 0.864], ["2019-04-03", 0.848], ["2019-04-03", 0.853], ["2019-04-03", 0.853], ["2019-04-03", 0.837], ["2019-04-04", 0.84], ["2019-04-04", 0.844], ["2019-04-04", 0.844], ["2019-04-04", 0.844], ["2019-04-05", 0.836], ["2019-04-05", 0.836], ["2019-04-05", 0.831], ["2019-04-05", 0.834], ["2019-04-06", 0.829], ["2019-04-06", 0.825], ["2019-04-07", 0.819], ["2019-04-07", 0.823], ["2019-04-08", 0.818], ["2019-04-08", 0.82], ["2019-04-09", 0.816], ["2019-04-09", 0.806], ["2019-04-10", 0.806], ["2019-04-10", 0.798], ["2019-04-10", 0.81], ["2019-04-10", 0.816], ["2019-04-10", 0.819], ["2019-04-10", 0.819], ["2019-04-10", 0.821], ["2019-04-11", 0.824], ["2019-04-11", 0.826], ["2019-04-11", 0.823], ["2019-04-11", 0.823], ["2019-04-11", 0.83], ["2019-04-11", 0.83], ["2019-04-11", 0.832], ["2019-04-11", 0.829], ["2019-04-11", 0.829], ["2019-04-11", 0.833], ["2019-04-11", 0.836], ["2019-04-11", 0.833], ["2019-04-11", 0.836], ["2019-04-11", 0.834], ["2019-04-12", 0.839], ["2019-04-12", 0.839], ["2019-04-12", 0.841], ["2019-04-12", 0.843], ["2019-04-13", 0.841], ["2019-04-13", 0.841], ["2019-04-13", 0.839], ["2019-04-14", 0.844], ["2019-04-14", 0.847], ["2019-04-14", 0.848], ["2019-04-14", 0.852], ["2019-04-14", 0.852], ["2019-04-15", 0.85], ["2019-04-19", 0.851], ["2019-04-19", 0.851], ["2019-04-21", 0.852], ["2019-04-22", 0.854], ["2019-04-22", 0.854], ["2019-04-23", 0.854], ["2019-04-23", 0.854], ["2019-04-23", 0.855], ["2019-04-24", 0.855], ["2019-04-24", 0.851], ["2019-04-25", 0.85], ["2019-04-28", 0.841], ["2019-04-28", 0.84], ["2019-04-28", 0.841], ["2019-04-29", 0.842], ["2019-04-29", 0.842], ["2019-04-30", 0.842], ["2019-04-30", 0.843], ["2019-05-01", 0.843], ["2019-05-02", 0.843], ["2019-05-02", 0.843], ["2019-05-03", 0.845], ["2019-05-03", 0.845], ["2019-05-03", 0.847], ["2019-05-03", 0.843], ["2019-05-03", 0.843], ["2019-05-03", 0.841], ["2019-05-04", 0.836], ["2019-05-05", 0.833], ["2019-05-05", 0.833], ["2019-05-05", 0.834], ["2019-05-08", 0.836], ["2019-05-08", 0.838], ["2019-05-08", 0.839], ["2019-05-09", 0.839], ["2019-05-09", 0.839]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2706/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been ruling Algeria since 1999, when the country was still in the throes of a civil war that only ended in 2002. This first election was quite controversial, but adhered to nevertheless.
The 2004 election were a vast improvement, reflecting the Algerian people's desire to see Bouteflika's rule continued. In 2008 a constitutional amendment allowed Bouteflika to run for and win a third term, under protest and boycott from opposition parties.
Bouteflika suffered a debilitating stroke in 2013, but that didn't stop him from running for a 4th term in 2014. During that campaign and after his win, with far smaller participation numbers anbd under boycott from opposition parties, he was seen less and less in public.
He announced his candidacy for the 2019 election via press release, which resulted in protest, internet censorship, the retraction of his candidacy and an unspecified postponement of the election.
Now the protesters seek Bouteflika to be deemed unfit, which would result in the President of the Senate and incidentally friend of Bouteflika, Abdelkader Bensalah, becoming Acting President for the 90 days until elections would be held.
Interestingly enough, these demands are supported by Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah, himself a powerful man in the state.
Will Algeria hold Presidential Elections in 2019?
Resolves positive when such elections are held before 2020. | true | 2019-05-09 | Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-04-13 | 2019-04-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-06", 0.55], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.758], ["2019-04-07", 0.76], ["2019-04-07", 0.76], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.75], ["2019-04-07", 0.749], ["2019-04-07", 0.749], ["2019-04-07", 0.742], ["2019-04-07", 0.722], ["2019-04-07", 0.722], ["2019-04-07", 0.708], ["2019-04-07", 0.7], ["2019-04-07", 0.709], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.715], ["2019-04-07", 0.715], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.712], ["2019-04-07", 0.71], ["2019-04-07", 0.71], ["2019-04-08", 0.708], ["2019-04-08", 0.679], ["2019-04-08", 0.679], ["2019-04-08", 0.677], ["2019-04-08", 0.682], ["2019-04-08", 0.679], ["2019-04-08", 0.687], ["2019-04-08", 0.685], ["2019-04-08", 0.685], ["2019-04-08", 0.685], ["2019-04-08", 0.681], ["2019-04-08", 0.691], ["2019-04-08", 0.691], ["2019-04-08", 0.691], ["2019-04-08", 0.7], ["2019-04-08", 0.7], ["2019-04-09", 0.698], ["2019-04-09", 0.702], ["2019-04-09", 0.708], ["2019-04-09", 0.708], ["2019-04-09", 0.701], ["2019-04-09", 0.704], ["2019-04-09", 0.704], ["2019-04-09", 0.693], ["2019-04-09", 0.692], ["2019-04-09", 0.678], ["2019-04-09", 0.678], ["2019-04-09", 0.67], ["2019-04-09", 0.664], ["2019-04-10", 0.662], ["2019-04-10", 0.66], ["2019-04-10", 0.655], ["2019-04-10", 0.663], ["2019-04-10", 0.659], ["2019-04-10", 0.659], ["2019-04-11", 0.653], ["2019-04-11", 0.648], ["2019-04-11", 0.648], ["2019-04-11", 0.641], ["2019-04-11", 0.64], ["2019-04-11", 0.639], ["2019-04-11", 0.637], ["2019-04-11", 0.638], ["2019-04-11", 0.638], ["2019-04-11", 0.636], ["2019-04-11", 0.636], ["2019-04-12", 0.636], ["2019-04-12", 0.639], ["2019-04-12", 0.642], ["2019-04-12", 0.642], ["2019-04-12", 0.642], ["2019-04-12", 0.644], ["2019-04-12", 0.644], ["2019-04-12", 0.643], ["2019-04-12", 0.642], ["2019-04-13", 0.643]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2712/ | OpenAI has announced the final live event for OpenAI five will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. OpenAI Five had previously played against human players at the International, and lost the majority of the matches played.
Have the past eight months been enough time for them to build a world champion level Dota2 AI? | Sports | Will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?
Resolution
The total number of matches will be the number of matches played live between OG and OpenAI Five.
For the purposes of question resolution OG will be considered the team that is fielded on April 13th - e.g. if for some reason a player is substituted onto the OG roster the team will still be OG. | true | 2019-04-13 | Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-05-29 | 2019-04-06 | [] | binary | [["2019-04-07", 0.6], ["2019-04-07", 0.517], ["2019-04-07", 0.599], ["2019-04-08", 0.595], ["2019-04-08", 0.613], ["2019-04-08", 0.619], ["2019-04-08", 0.616], ["2019-04-08", 0.621], ["2019-04-08", 0.627], ["2019-04-08", 0.625], ["2019-04-09", 0.639], ["2019-04-09", 0.643], ["2019-04-09", 0.65], ["2019-04-09", 0.649], ["2019-04-09", 0.649], ["2019-04-09", 0.649], ["2019-04-09", 0.654], ["2019-04-10", 0.654], ["2019-04-10", 0.661], ["2019-04-11", 0.657], ["2019-04-11", 0.651], ["2019-04-12", 0.653], ["2019-04-12", 0.652], ["2019-04-12", 0.654], ["2019-04-13", 0.651], ["2019-04-14", 0.651], ["2019-04-14", 0.649], ["2019-04-14", 0.641], ["2019-04-14", 0.641], ["2019-04-15", 0.649], ["2019-04-15", 0.646], ["2019-04-15", 0.645], ["2019-04-15", 0.643], ["2019-04-15", 0.637], ["2019-04-15", 0.619], ["2019-04-16", 0.608], ["2019-04-16", 0.603], ["2019-04-16", 0.6], ["2019-04-16", 0.591], ["2019-04-16", 0.593], ["2019-04-16", 0.586], ["2019-04-17", 0.586], ["2019-04-17", 0.579], ["2019-04-17", 0.577], ["2019-04-18", 0.577], ["2019-04-18", 0.577], ["2019-04-18", 0.574], ["2019-04-18", 0.574], ["2019-04-18", 0.572], ["2019-04-19", 0.572], ["2019-04-19", 0.567], ["2019-04-19", 0.566], ["2019-04-19", 0.566], ["2019-04-19", 0.566], ["2019-04-20", 0.566], ["2019-04-20", 0.554], ["2019-04-20", 0.553], ["2019-04-20", 0.549], ["2019-04-20", 0.542], ["2019-04-20", 0.538], ["2019-04-21", 0.538], ["2019-04-21", 0.537], ["2019-04-23", 0.537], ["2019-04-23", 0.528], ["2019-04-23", 0.535], ["2019-04-23", 0.534], ["2019-04-23", 0.523], ["2019-04-23", 0.511], ["2019-04-24", 0.508], ["2019-04-24", 0.508], ["2019-04-24", 0.502], ["2019-04-24", 0.502], ["2019-04-24", 0.496], ["2019-04-24", 0.494], ["2019-04-25", 0.491], ["2019-04-25", 0.48], ["2019-04-25", 0.479], ["2019-04-26", 0.479], ["2019-04-26", 0.476], ["2019-04-26", 0.472], ["2019-04-26", 0.469], ["2019-04-26", 0.468], ["2019-04-26", 0.468], ["2019-04-27", 0.464], ["2019-04-27", 0.464], ["2019-04-28", 0.463], ["2019-04-29", 0.459], ["2019-04-29", 0.458], ["2019-04-29", 0.458], ["2019-04-29", 0.457], ["2019-04-29", 0.454], ["2019-04-29", 0.444], ["2019-04-29", 0.428], ["2019-04-29", 0.392], ["2019-04-30", 0.386], ["2019-04-30", 0.367], ["2019-04-30", 0.35], ["2019-04-30", 0.347], ["2019-04-30", 0.339], ["2019-04-30", 0.332], ["2019-04-30", 0.322]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2714/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Swedish YouTuber, comedian and gamer–commentator PewDiePie and Indian record label T-Series are in a neck-and-neck race to be the first YouTube channel to reach a 100 million subscriber count.
At the time of writing, PewDiePie has over 93M subscribers, compared to the 92.7M for T-Series. T-Series has temporarily overtaken PewDiePie on numerous occasions in 2019.
Will Pewdiepie be the first YouTube channel to have 100 million subscribers on YouTube?
This question resolves positive if Pewdiepie is reaches the 100M mark before T-Series. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to subscriber counts given on Socialblade, i.e. those here: PewDiePie, T-Series. This question will close retroactively 7 days before the 100M mark has been reached by either of the two. This resolves ambiguous if a channel on this list that is not Pewdiepie or T-Series is the first to achieve 100M subscribers. | true | 2019-04-30 | Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers? | metaculus | 0 |
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The UK invoked Article 50 on March 2017, triggering a two-year process of exiting the European Union. However, the process has been fraught with difficulty and the British government has been unable to win enough support in Parliament to ratify Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiated withdrawal agreement. As a result of the deadlock, the UK has been granted an extension until 31 October 2019 following a Euopean Council meeting on 10 April. If a deal is not reached by this date, the legal default position is that the UK will exit the EU with no deal on this date.
At present the UK government is still pursuing a negotiated exit, and it is still possible that the UK can leave the EU with a deal, or leave without a deal. It is also possible that the UK will seek and be granted another extension. It is also possible for the UK to unilaterally revoke its invocation of Article 50 and thereby cease the process of exiting the European Union.
This question asks: Will the United Kingdom revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?
This question resolves negatively if the United Kingdom has not revoked Article 50 on or before June 23 2020. It resolves positively in the event such revocation does take place. Resolution should cite credible media reports from the UK indicating that Article 50 has been formally revoked. | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now "out of control". It was previously asked whether it would kill more than 400 people, and then more than 1000. Both having happened, it is sadly time for a third question.
Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?
This question resolves positive if, before midnight the 29th of February 2020, the WHO has not declared the current Ebola outbreak to be over. It resolves negative if the WHO declares the outbreak to be over. | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-11-19 | 2019-05-17 | ["https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/:"] | binary | [["2019-05-24", 0.7], ["2019-05-24", 0.65], ["2019-05-25", 0.567], ["2019-05-25", 0.624], ["2019-05-25", 0.624], ["2019-05-25", 0.649], ["2019-05-26", 0.649], ["2019-05-26", 0.632], ["2019-05-28", 0.661], ["2019-05-29", 0.661], ["2019-05-29", 0.676], ["2019-05-29", 0.665], ["2019-05-29", 0.667], ["2019-05-30", 0.665], ["2019-05-31", 0.665], ["2019-05-31", 0.673], ["2019-05-31", 0.673], ["2019-05-31", 0.679], ["2019-05-31", 0.683], ["2019-06-02", 0.688], ["2019-06-02", 0.693], ["2019-06-03", 0.682], ["2019-06-07", 0.679], ["2019-06-11", 0.679], ["2019-06-15", 0.676], ["2019-06-16", 0.672], ["2019-06-19", 0.67], ["2019-06-19", 0.686], ["2019-06-19", 0.688], ["2019-06-20", 0.701], ["2019-06-20", 0.701], ["2019-06-20", 0.708], ["2019-06-21", 0.708], ["2019-06-21", 0.712], ["2019-06-21", 0.71], ["2019-06-22", 0.714], ["2019-06-22", 0.714], ["2019-06-23", 0.719], ["2019-06-25", 0.724], ["2019-06-26", 0.724], ["2019-06-27", 0.727], ["2019-06-27", 0.73], ["2019-06-29", 0.73], ["2019-07-03", 0.732], ["2019-07-16", 0.736], ["2019-07-18", 0.737], ["2019-07-21", 0.738], ["2019-07-21", 0.74], ["2019-07-21", 0.739], ["2019-07-22", 0.739], ["2019-07-22", 0.743], ["2019-07-23", 0.744], ["2019-07-24", 0.744], ["2019-07-25", 0.744], ["2019-08-01", 0.744], ["2019-08-01", 0.734], ["2019-08-05", 0.743], ["2019-08-07", 0.743], ["2019-08-08", 0.744], ["2019-08-10", 0.742], ["2019-08-11", 0.744], ["2019-08-12", 0.741], ["2019-08-16", 0.742], ["2019-08-17", 0.742], ["2019-08-22", 0.745], ["2019-09-04", 0.744], ["2019-09-04", 0.745], ["2019-09-06", 0.745], ["2019-09-07", 0.743], ["2019-09-13", 0.743], ["2019-09-20", 0.747], ["2019-09-21", 0.748], ["2019-09-22", 0.75], ["2019-09-24", 0.75], ["2019-09-29", 0.756], ["2019-10-02", 0.755], ["2019-10-06", 0.755], ["2019-10-08", 0.755], ["2019-10-09", 0.755], ["2019-10-09", 0.753], ["2019-10-15", 0.751], ["2019-10-16", 0.752], ["2019-10-21", 0.755], ["2019-10-22", 0.758], ["2019-10-22", 0.759], ["2019-10-22", 0.763], ["2019-10-23", 0.764], ["2019-10-23", 0.766], ["2019-10-24", 0.769], ["2019-10-24", 0.773], ["2019-10-24", 0.776], ["2019-10-24", 0.775], ["2019-10-25", 0.773], ["2019-10-25", 0.775], ["2019-10-25", 0.775], ["2019-10-25", 0.776], ["2019-10-25", 0.777], ["2019-10-26", 0.782], ["2019-10-27", 0.783], ["2019-10-29", 0.783], ["2019-10-30", 0.784]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2753/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The TOP500 list of the highest-performing computing systems is published twice per year, generally in June and November. Question will be resolved according to the data associated with the November 2019 TOP500 list. To access the data, visit https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/:
Select 'November 2019' from the 'TOP500 Release' drop down menu;
Select 'Countries' in the 'Category' drop down menu.
Click 'Submit.' Question will be resolved according to the data illustrated in the 'Countries Performance Share' pie chart. (The pie chart reflects the statistic, as is maximum performance, and is theoretical maximum performance.)
While historically the U.S. has been the #1 country in performance share of supercomputers, China held the #1 spot in June 2016 and Nov 2017.
Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | true | 2019-10-31 | Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | metaculus | 1 |
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Fund clears first $1.4 billion tranche from new package
The International Monetary Fund approved a new $3.9 billion bailout program for Ukraine to stabilize the economy and help the government pay back its debts.
...
The IMF is expected to consider releasing the next tranches in May and November, according to the Finance Ministry.
The recent presidential elections in April 2019, the planned parliamentary elections in October 2019, and other political considerations could affect the policies necessary for the funds to be released (Bloomberg2, UNIAN, Interfax, CNBC). The amount of each tranche is irrelevant for the resolution of this question.
Will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019? | true | 2019-11-29 | Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine? | metaculus | 0 |
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Farage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the 2016 Brexit vote, in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019.
In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the 2019 European Parliament elections, becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament.
This question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?
Resolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise. | true | 2022-01-07 | Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2019-06-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-16", 0.1], ["2019-06-17", 0.204], ["2019-06-19", 0.202], ["2019-06-20", 0.216], ["2019-06-22", 0.211], ["2019-06-22", 0.211], ["2019-06-25", 0.21], ["2019-06-29", 0.213], ["2019-06-29", 0.213], ["2019-06-30", 0.221], ["2019-07-01", 0.222], ["2019-07-13", 0.224], ["2019-07-21", 0.222], ["2019-07-21", 0.221], ["2019-07-25", 0.221], ["2019-07-30", 0.223], ["2019-09-12", 0.224], ["2019-10-22", 0.224], ["2019-10-25", 0.214], ["2019-10-30", 0.214], ["2019-12-01", 0.214], ["2020-02-14", 0.221], ["2020-02-23", 0.224], ["2020-03-11", 0.222], ["2020-03-16", 0.224], ["2020-03-17", 0.222], ["2020-03-20", 0.222], ["2020-03-23", 0.222], ["2020-03-27", 0.223], ["2020-03-31", 0.22], ["2020-04-02", 0.219], ["2020-04-03", 0.219], ["2020-04-03", 0.219], ["2020-04-04", 0.219], ["2020-04-05", 0.219], ["2020-04-09", 0.218], ["2020-04-20", 0.218], ["2020-04-24", 0.219], ["2020-04-30", 0.217], ["2020-05-21", 0.214], ["2020-05-22", 0.209], ["2020-05-28", 0.204], ["2020-06-01", 0.203], ["2020-06-02", 0.202], ["2020-06-04", 0.201], ["2020-06-29", 0.199], ["2020-06-29", 0.199], ["2020-07-13", 0.199], ["2020-08-01", 0.196], ["2020-08-15", 0.195], ["2020-08-29", 0.196], ["2020-08-30", 0.196], ["2020-09-17", 0.195], ["2020-09-18", 0.194], ["2020-09-25", 0.209], ["2020-09-26", 0.203], ["2020-09-28", 0.203], ["2020-10-04", 0.2], ["2020-10-04", 0.198], ["2020-10-06", 0.198], ["2020-10-07", 0.197], ["2020-10-09", 0.193], ["2020-10-10", 0.192], ["2020-10-18", 0.192], ["2020-10-20", 0.192], ["2020-10-22", 0.193], ["2020-10-24", 0.193], ["2020-11-01", 0.188], ["2020-11-02", 0.188], ["2020-11-03", 0.188], ["2020-11-04", 0.183], ["2020-11-07", 0.183], ["2020-11-08", 0.182], ["2020-11-10", 0.182], ["2020-11-12", 0.182], ["2020-11-13", 0.182], ["2020-11-20", 0.182], ["2020-11-21", 0.181], ["2020-11-26", 0.179], ["2020-11-27", 0.176], ["2020-12-04", 0.177], ["2020-12-07", 0.176], ["2020-12-08", 0.176], ["2020-12-09", 0.173], ["2020-12-10", 0.174], ["2020-12-11", 0.171], ["2020-12-13", 0.171], ["2020-12-15", 0.17], ["2020-12-15", 0.167], ["2020-12-17", 0.165], ["2020-12-18", 0.165], ["2020-12-20", 0.165], ["2020-12-21", 0.16], ["2020-12-22", 0.158], ["2020-12-23", 0.158], ["2020-12-24", 0.158], ["2020-12-25", 0.157], ["2020-12-26", 0.155], ["2020-12-27", 0.152], ["2020-12-29", 0.146], ["2020-12-30", 0.113]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2791/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Among the various issues that have beset the once-booming cryptocurrency markets is a high degree of regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US where the SEC has taken a rather firm stance that cryptocurrencies constituted securities and fall under the purview of securities laws of various types.
That might change with the introduction of the Token Taxonomy Act introduced in April 2019. The act would allow the explicit classification of some coins as tokens and not securities, and carries a number of other provisions as discussed e.g. here.
Will something like this become law?
Question resolves positive if by the end of 2020, a law with substantially the same content as the above act is passed by congress and signed. Allowable versions would be:
Any law with the given title, or with a very similar title re-introduced in 2020 with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.
Any law concerning cryptocurrencies, with an overlap of at least 75% of its text with the above act, and with Rep. Warren Davidson as a sponsor or co-sponsor.
If a law is passed in 2019 or 2020 that arguably includes many of the provisions of this act, but does not satisfy the above criteria, question shall resolve as ambiguous.
If no law is passed by 2020 directly addressing cryptocurrencies, or if the only law(s) passed are quite different or contrary to the above law's intent, question resolves negatively.
In the event of a positive resolution, closing time shall be retroactively set to 1 hour before the start of voting by the second body of Congress to vote on the relevant bill. | true | 2020-12-30 | Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-06-17 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-20", 0.66], ["2019-06-21", 0.38], ["2019-06-21", 0.337], ["2019-06-21", 0.355], ["2019-06-21", 0.388], ["2019-06-21", 0.398], ["2019-06-21", 0.372], ["2019-06-21", 0.361], ["2019-06-22", 0.404], ["2019-06-22", 0.403], ["2019-06-22", 0.428], ["2019-06-22", 0.433], ["2019-06-22", 0.433], ["2019-06-22", 0.428], ["2019-06-22", 0.445], ["2019-06-23", 0.445], ["2019-06-23", 0.447], ["2019-06-23", 0.447], ["2019-06-23", 0.443], ["2019-06-23", 0.446], ["2019-06-24", 0.446], ["2019-06-24", 0.448], ["2019-06-24", 0.448], ["2019-06-24", 0.441], ["2019-06-25", 0.441], ["2019-06-25", 0.441], ["2019-06-25", 0.438], ["2019-06-25", 0.426], ["2019-06-25", 0.423], ["2019-06-26", 0.423], ["2019-06-27", 0.416], ["2019-06-27", 0.413], ["2019-06-28", 0.413], ["2019-06-29", 0.412], ["2019-06-29", 0.412], ["2019-06-29", 0.403], ["2019-06-29", 0.399], ["2019-07-01", 0.399], ["2019-07-03", 0.397], ["2019-07-04", 0.397], ["2019-07-07", 0.396], ["2019-07-07", 0.396], ["2019-07-08", 0.396], ["2019-07-08", 0.391], ["2019-07-09", 0.389], ["2019-07-11", 0.386], ["2019-07-12", 0.386], ["2019-07-13", 0.381], ["2019-07-13", 0.381], ["2019-07-13", 0.376], ["2019-07-13", 0.376], ["2019-07-14", 0.369], ["2019-07-14", 0.359], ["2019-07-14", 0.357], ["2019-07-20", 0.356], ["2019-07-21", 0.353], ["2019-07-22", 0.354], ["2019-07-23", 0.354], ["2019-07-24", 0.353], ["2019-07-28", 0.353], ["2019-07-28", 0.352], ["2019-07-28", 0.352], ["2019-07-30", 0.35], ["2019-07-30", 0.35], ["2019-07-31", 0.351], ["2019-08-02", 0.351], ["2019-08-02", 0.352], ["2019-08-03", 0.353], ["2019-08-05", 0.353], ["2019-08-05", 0.353], ["2019-08-06", 0.351], ["2019-08-06", 0.351], ["2019-08-11", 0.351], ["2019-08-12", 0.349], ["2019-08-12", 0.345], ["2019-08-14", 0.345], ["2019-08-14", 0.345], ["2019-08-17", 0.345], ["2019-08-17", 0.343], ["2019-08-17", 0.34], ["2019-08-20", 0.34], ["2019-08-20", 0.338], ["2019-08-21", 0.337], ["2019-08-21", 0.337], ["2019-08-22", 0.337], ["2019-08-22", 0.335], ["2019-08-22", 0.323], ["2019-08-23", 0.321], ["2019-08-28", 0.321], ["2019-08-28", 0.319], ["2019-08-29", 0.32], ["2019-08-30", 0.317], ["2019-08-30", 0.318], ["2019-08-31", 0.318], ["2019-08-31", 0.318], ["2019-09-01", 0.316], ["2019-09-01", 0.314], ["2019-09-02", 0.314], ["2019-09-02", 0.313], ["2019-09-02", 0.314], ["2019-09-02", 0.313]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2794/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On June 13, 2019, two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz while transiting the Gulf of Oman. The Japanese Kokuka Courageous and Norwegian Front Altair were attacked, allegedly with limpet mines or flying objects, causing fire damage to both ships. This followed from an apparent attack on four ships in May 2019.
Amid heightened tension between Iran and the United States, the United States blamed Iran for the attacks. Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom supported the United States' accusation, while Japan and Germany have demanded more proof of Iran's culpability.[1][2]
By the end of 2019, will either the Norwegian or Japanese government make an official statement claiming that it is their belief that Iran-affiliated forces were responsible for any damage caused to at least one of the ships in the June Incident?
This resolves positively if by the end of 2019, either the Norwegian or Japanese government has blamed Iran-affiliated forces for some of the damage caused to at least one ship. This resolves positive if a statement of blame is made, even if it is subsequently retracted. This resolves negatively if by the end of 2019, neither the Norwegian nor Japanese government has blamed Iran-affiliated forces for the incident. | true | 2019-09-02 | Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-27 | 2019-06-26 | [] | binary | [["2019-06-29", 0.21], ["2019-06-29", 0.242], ["2019-06-29", 0.24], ["2019-06-29", 0.229], ["2019-06-30", 0.229], ["2019-06-30", 0.217], ["2019-06-30", 0.217], ["2019-07-01", 0.217], ["2019-07-01", 0.212], ["2019-07-01", 0.236], ["2019-07-01", 0.234], ["2019-07-01", 0.22], ["2019-07-02", 0.225], ["2019-07-02", 0.221], ["2019-07-02", 0.207], ["2019-07-02", 0.212], ["2019-07-02", 0.211], ["2019-07-03", 0.211], ["2019-07-03", 0.212], ["2019-07-03", 0.21], ["2019-07-03", 0.207], ["2019-07-03", 0.215], ["2019-07-04", 0.21], ["2019-07-05", 0.208], ["2019-07-05", 0.204], ["2019-07-07", 0.204], ["2019-07-07", 0.194], ["2019-07-07", 0.194], ["2019-07-13", 0.191], ["2019-07-15", 0.2], ["2019-07-17", 0.203], ["2019-07-20", 0.203], ["2019-07-20", 0.207], ["2019-07-21", 0.21], ["2019-07-21", 0.214], ["2019-07-22", 0.213], ["2019-07-22", 0.213], ["2019-07-23", 0.211], ["2019-07-23", 0.211], ["2019-07-28", 0.209], ["2019-07-29", 0.208], ["2019-07-29", 0.208], ["2019-07-29", 0.208], ["2019-07-30", 0.207], ["2019-07-30", 0.207], ["2019-07-30", 0.206], ["2019-07-31", 0.203], ["2019-07-31", 0.203], ["2019-08-02", 0.202], ["2019-08-02", 0.202], ["2019-08-03", 0.201], ["2019-08-03", 0.201], ["2019-08-04", 0.201], ["2019-08-04", 0.199], ["2019-08-05", 0.197], ["2019-08-05", 0.193], ["2019-08-05", 0.192], ["2019-08-05", 0.189], ["2019-08-06", 0.189], ["2019-08-07", 0.189], ["2019-08-07", 0.188], ["2019-08-07", 0.184], ["2019-08-09", 0.18], ["2019-08-11", 0.18], ["2019-08-11", 0.18], ["2019-08-12", 0.178], ["2019-08-12", 0.178], ["2019-08-12", 0.175], ["2019-08-13", 0.175], ["2019-08-13", 0.175], ["2019-08-13", 0.174], ["2019-08-14", 0.173], ["2019-08-15", 0.173], ["2019-08-16", 0.172], ["2019-08-16", 0.169], ["2019-08-16", 0.169], ["2019-08-17", 0.169], ["2019-08-17", 0.165], ["2019-08-17", 0.165], ["2019-08-18", 0.165], ["2019-08-18", 0.159], ["2019-08-18", 0.159], ["2019-08-18", 0.157], ["2019-08-18", 0.154], ["2019-08-19", 0.154], ["2019-08-19", 0.15], ["2019-08-19", 0.15], ["2019-08-20", 0.15], ["2019-08-20", 0.142], ["2019-08-20", 0.141], ["2019-08-20", 0.137], ["2019-08-21", 0.136], ["2019-08-21", 0.136], ["2019-08-21", 0.134], ["2019-08-21", 0.132], ["2019-08-21", 0.131], ["2019-08-21", 0.116], ["2019-08-21", 0.116], ["2019-08-22", 0.096], ["2019-08-22", 0.095], ["2019-08-22", 0.081]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2809/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
A "significant leadership disruption" includes confirmed reports that the leader has:
resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),
lost a confidence vote,
formally left office,
died,
been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,
been medically incapacitated or hospitalized for 10 or more consecutive days,
been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days. | true | 2019-08-22 | Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-25 | 2019-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-09", 0.495], ["2019-07-09", 0.413], ["2019-07-09", 0.407], ["2019-07-09", 0.312], ["2019-07-09", 0.373], ["2019-07-10", 0.395], ["2019-07-10", 0.396], ["2019-07-10", 0.396], ["2019-07-10", 0.405], ["2019-07-10", 0.424], ["2019-07-11", 0.424], ["2019-07-11", 0.396], ["2019-07-11", 0.387], ["2019-07-11", 0.369], ["2019-07-12", 0.369], ["2019-07-13", 0.363], ["2019-07-13", 0.367], ["2019-07-13", 0.366], ["2019-07-13", 0.364], ["2019-07-14", 0.364], ["2019-07-14", 0.35], ["2019-07-15", 0.35], ["2019-07-15", 0.334], ["2019-07-15", 0.333], ["2019-07-15", 0.323], ["2019-07-16", 0.317], ["2019-07-16", 0.32], ["2019-07-17", 0.312], ["2019-07-18", 0.305], ["2019-07-18", 0.305], ["2019-07-18", 0.304], ["2019-07-18", 0.304], ["2019-07-18", 0.306], ["2019-07-19", 0.314], ["2019-07-19", 0.314], ["2019-07-19", 0.325], ["2019-07-19", 0.328], ["2019-07-20", 0.328], ["2019-07-20", 0.332], ["2019-07-20", 0.325], ["2019-07-20", 0.326], ["2019-07-20", 0.319], ["2019-07-20", 0.319], ["2019-07-21", 0.317], ["2019-07-21", 0.304], ["2019-07-21", 0.313], ["2019-07-21", 0.318], ["2019-07-21", 0.324], ["2019-07-21", 0.322], ["2019-07-21", 0.325], ["2019-07-22", 0.321], ["2019-07-22", 0.324], ["2019-07-22", 0.319], ["2019-07-22", 0.313], ["2019-07-22", 0.313], ["2019-07-22", 0.31], ["2019-07-22", 0.312], ["2019-07-23", 0.314], ["2019-07-23", 0.318], ["2019-07-23", 0.32], ["2019-07-23", 0.319], ["2019-07-25", 0.317], ["2019-07-25", 0.317], ["2019-07-25", 0.316], ["2019-07-26", 0.308], ["2019-07-26", 0.308], ["2019-07-26", 0.31], ["2019-07-27", 0.312], ["2019-07-27", 0.312], ["2019-07-28", 0.313], ["2019-07-28", 0.31], ["2019-07-28", 0.313], ["2019-07-30", 0.313], ["2019-07-30", 0.315], ["2019-07-30", 0.312], ["2019-07-30", 0.316], ["2019-07-31", 0.316], ["2019-07-31", 0.323], ["2019-07-31", 0.322], ["2019-07-31", 0.321], ["2019-07-31", 0.324], ["2019-07-31", 0.322], ["2019-07-31", 0.322], ["2019-08-01", 0.316], ["2019-08-01", 0.316], ["2019-08-01", 0.313], ["2019-08-01", 0.313], ["2019-08-02", 0.312], ["2019-08-02", 0.312], ["2019-08-02", 0.312], ["2019-08-02", 0.305], ["2019-08-05", 0.305], ["2019-08-11", 0.303], ["2019-08-12", 0.303], ["2019-08-12", 0.302], ["2019-08-14", 0.302], ["2019-08-20", 0.301], ["2019-08-21", 0.3], ["2019-08-22", 0.301], ["2019-08-25", 0.301], ["2019-08-25", 0.318]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2926/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
A "national military attack" includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country's national military forces (to include special forces) on another country's military, military assets, or territory, including citizens located within that territory.
Attacks that occur within territorial waters, foreign missions, and/or exclusive economic zones will not qualify as a "national military attack." Foreign mission here mean diplomatic mission such as embassy or consulates located abroad.
A "cyber" attack will not qualify as a "national military attack."
Resolves positive if a country's government claims that such a national military attack occurred and that their own national military forces were responsible for the attack, or
if the governments of at least three permanent members of the UN Security Council members (i.e three of: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, the United States) make a statement claiming that a national military attack of the sort described above has occurred,
Resolution shall be ambiguous if no government claims their military was responsible for a national military attack but one or two governments of permanent members of the UN Security Council do claim that such a national military attack occurred.
Resolution shall be negative if no country's government claims that a national military attack was perpetrated by their own national military, and no permanent members of the UN Security Council make a claim that a national military attack occurred. | true | 2019-10-05 | Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-07-30 | 2019-07-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-04", 0.67], ["2019-07-05", 0.32], ["2019-07-05", 0.32], ["2019-07-05", 0.367], ["2019-07-05", 0.423], ["2019-07-05", 0.426], ["2019-07-05", 0.415], ["2019-07-05", 0.439], ["2019-07-05", 0.469], ["2019-07-06", 0.441], ["2019-07-06", 0.429], ["2019-07-06", 0.424], ["2019-07-07", 0.426], ["2019-07-07", 0.429], ["2019-07-07", 0.429], ["2019-07-08", 0.435], ["2019-07-08", 0.435], ["2019-07-08", 0.448], ["2019-07-09", 0.45], ["2019-07-10", 0.45], ["2019-07-10", 0.438], ["2019-07-11", 0.438], ["2019-07-11", 0.433], ["2019-07-12", 0.432], ["2019-07-13", 0.453], ["2019-07-13", 0.446], ["2019-07-13", 0.446], ["2019-07-14", 0.444], ["2019-07-14", 0.454], ["2019-07-14", 0.454], ["2019-07-15", 0.449], ["2019-07-15", 0.449], ["2019-07-15", 0.447], ["2019-07-15", 0.435], ["2019-07-16", 0.437], ["2019-07-17", 0.41], ["2019-07-17", 0.402], ["2019-07-18", 0.403], ["2019-07-18", 0.4], ["2019-07-18", 0.401], ["2019-07-19", 0.401], ["2019-07-19", 0.393], ["2019-07-19", 0.382], ["2019-07-19", 0.374], ["2019-07-20", 0.374], ["2019-07-20", 0.368], ["2019-07-20", 0.367], ["2019-07-21", 0.368], ["2019-07-21", 0.367], ["2019-07-21", 0.373], ["2019-07-21", 0.373], ["2019-07-21", 0.378], ["2019-07-21", 0.39], ["2019-07-22", 0.391], ["2019-07-22", 0.395], ["2019-07-22", 0.398], ["2019-07-22", 0.4], ["2019-07-22", 0.403], ["2019-07-22", 0.405], ["2019-07-22", 0.405], ["2019-07-23", 0.41], ["2019-07-23", 0.415], ["2019-07-23", 0.406], ["2019-07-23", 0.417], ["2019-07-23", 0.418], ["2019-07-23", 0.415], ["2019-07-24", 0.415], ["2019-07-24", 0.415], ["2019-07-25", 0.414], ["2019-07-25", 0.405], ["2019-07-25", 0.402], ["2019-07-25", 0.388], ["2019-07-25", 0.372], ["2019-07-25", 0.372], ["2019-07-26", 0.37], ["2019-07-26", 0.36], ["2019-07-26", 0.333], ["2019-07-26", 0.333], ["2019-07-26", 0.323], ["2019-07-26", 0.317], ["2019-07-26", 0.303], ["2019-07-27", 0.291], ["2019-07-27", 0.286], ["2019-07-27", 0.286], ["2019-07-28", 0.286], ["2019-07-28", 0.284], ["2019-07-28", 0.284], ["2019-07-28", 0.284], ["2019-07-28", 0.27], ["2019-07-29", 0.263], ["2019-07-29", 0.263], ["2019-07-29", 0.246], ["2019-07-29", 0.246], ["2019-07-29", 0.175], ["2019-07-29", 0.165], ["2019-07-30", 0.165], ["2019-07-30", 0.157], ["2019-07-30", 0.157], ["2019-07-30", 0.157], ["2019-07-30", 0.145], ["2019-07-30", 0.144]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2927/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
Spanish elections in April 2019 resulted in the Partido Socialista Obrero Espaol (PSOE, or the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) gaining the most seats in the Congress of Deputies, but not the majority required to form a government on its own (ElectionResults (in Spanish), Bloomberg, ElPais, EuropeBlog). Part IV: Government and Administration of the Spanish Constitution describes the nomination and appointment process (ConstitutionProject). | true | 2019-07-30 | Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-02 | 2019-07-02 | ["https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch;"] | binary | [["2019-07-06", 0.69], ["2019-07-06", 0.74], ["2019-07-06", 0.765], ["2019-07-06", 0.693], ["2019-07-06", 0.596], ["2019-07-07", 0.596], ["2019-07-07", 0.579], ["2019-07-07", 0.579], ["2019-07-07", 0.538], ["2019-07-07", 0.544], ["2019-07-08", 0.542], ["2019-07-08", 0.539], ["2019-07-08", 0.559], ["2019-07-08", 0.559], ["2019-07-08", 0.59], ["2019-07-08", 0.603], ["2019-07-08", 0.603], ["2019-07-08", 0.617], ["2019-07-08", 0.62], ["2019-07-08", 0.62], ["2019-07-08", 0.625], ["2019-07-08", 0.625], ["2019-07-09", 0.628], ["2019-07-09", 0.632], ["2019-07-09", 0.632], ["2019-07-09", 0.626], ["2019-07-09", 0.642], ["2019-07-10", 0.642], ["2019-07-10", 0.643], ["2019-07-11", 0.642], ["2019-07-11", 0.642], ["2019-07-11", 0.642], ["2019-07-11", 0.642], ["2019-07-13", 0.654], ["2019-07-14", 0.654], ["2019-07-14", 0.66], ["2019-07-15", 0.661], ["2019-07-16", 0.668], ["2019-07-16", 0.668], ["2019-07-17", 0.662], ["2019-07-17", 0.664], ["2019-07-18", 0.665], ["2019-07-18", 0.669], ["2019-07-18", 0.678], ["2019-07-18", 0.681], ["2019-07-18", 0.686], ["2019-07-19", 0.683], ["2019-07-19", 0.683], ["2019-07-19", 0.688], ["2019-07-19", 0.69], ["2019-07-19", 0.693], ["2019-07-19", 0.693], ["2019-07-19", 0.704], ["2019-07-20", 0.707], ["2019-07-20", 0.709], ["2019-07-20", 0.709], ["2019-07-20", 0.707], ["2019-07-20", 0.712], ["2019-07-20", 0.715], ["2019-07-21", 0.715], ["2019-07-21", 0.712], ["2019-07-21", 0.715], ["2019-07-22", 0.713], ["2019-07-22", 0.71], ["2019-07-23", 0.709], ["2019-07-23", 0.707], ["2019-07-23", 0.708], ["2019-07-25", 0.706], ["2019-07-26", 0.713], ["2019-07-26", 0.713], ["2019-07-26", 0.72], ["2019-07-26", 0.721], ["2019-07-26", 0.722], ["2019-07-26", 0.723], ["2019-07-26", 0.723], ["2019-07-26", 0.723], ["2019-07-26", 0.725], ["2019-07-27", 0.726], ["2019-07-27", 0.728], ["2019-07-27", 0.728], ["2019-07-27", 0.728], ["2019-07-28", 0.727], ["2019-07-28", 0.728], ["2019-07-28", 0.727], ["2019-07-28", 0.727], ["2019-07-29", 0.738], ["2019-07-29", 0.745], ["2019-07-29", 0.745], ["2019-07-29", 0.742], ["2019-07-30", 0.744], ["2019-07-30", 0.745], ["2019-07-30", 0.743], ["2019-07-30", 0.744], ["2019-07-30", 0.742], ["2019-07-30", 0.751], ["2019-07-30", 0.75], ["2019-07-30", 0.753], ["2019-07-31", 0.758], ["2019-07-31", 0.758], ["2019-07-31", 0.76], ["2019-07-31", 0.76]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2928/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
The International Crisis Group's monthly bulletin, Crisis Watch, provides short, country-specific updates on political and security developments worldwide, assessing in each case whether the overall situation has deteriorated, improved, or remained unchanged. The question will be resolved according to conflict status for the country of interest for the period of interest as reported within the International Crisis Groups Crisis Watch Map. To access the relevant information:
Go to https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch;
Click on 'BROWSE MAP';
Click on the country of interest;
Hover over the lines at the top of the pop-up window for the status of the period of interest.
This question will be resolved by consulting the data source once each week sometime between 10:00 AM ET Wednesday and 4:00 PM ET Thursday, starting the Wednesday after the question close date and continuing once each week until the data are successfully retrieved. | true | 2019-07-31 | Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-30 | 2019-07-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-08", 0.35], ["2019-07-09", 0.267], ["2019-07-09", 0.239], ["2019-07-09", 0.227], ["2019-07-10", 0.223], ["2019-07-10", 0.229], ["2019-07-11", 0.229], ["2019-07-11", 0.223], ["2019-07-11", 0.223], ["2019-07-12", 0.245], ["2019-07-12", 0.246], ["2019-07-12", 0.244], ["2019-07-13", 0.248], ["2019-07-13", 0.254], ["2019-07-13", 0.255], ["2019-07-14", 0.25], ["2019-07-14", 0.25], ["2019-07-15", 0.256], ["2019-07-15", 0.244], ["2019-07-16", 0.241], ["2019-07-16", 0.244], ["2019-07-18", 0.245], ["2019-07-18", 0.24], ["2019-07-19", 0.243], ["2019-07-20", 0.238], ["2019-07-21", 0.237], ["2019-07-22", 0.242], ["2019-07-22", 0.242], ["2019-07-23", 0.245], ["2019-07-23", 0.245], ["2019-07-24", 0.247], ["2019-07-25", 0.246], ["2019-07-27", 0.246], ["2019-07-27", 0.25], ["2019-07-27", 0.256], ["2019-07-27", 0.259], ["2019-07-28", 0.259], ["2019-07-28", 0.271], ["2019-07-29", 0.272], ["2019-07-29", 0.272], ["2019-07-30", 0.273], ["2019-07-30", 0.27], ["2019-07-31", 0.271], ["2019-07-31", 0.267], ["2019-08-01", 0.268], ["2019-08-01", 0.268], ["2019-08-02", 0.27], ["2019-08-02", 0.272], ["2019-08-03", 0.271], ["2019-08-04", 0.268], ["2019-08-05", 0.265], ["2019-08-05", 0.268], ["2019-08-05", 0.268], ["2019-08-06", 0.263], ["2019-08-08", 0.263], ["2019-08-11", 0.263], ["2019-08-11", 0.263], ["2019-08-12", 0.261], ["2019-08-12", 0.261], ["2019-08-12", 0.264], ["2019-08-16", 0.259], ["2019-08-16", 0.259], ["2019-08-17", 0.257], ["2019-08-18", 0.258], ["2019-08-19", 0.258], ["2019-08-20", 0.26], ["2019-08-20", 0.26], ["2019-08-22", 0.258], ["2019-08-22", 0.258], ["2019-08-23", 0.257], ["2019-08-28", 0.256], ["2019-08-29", 0.252], ["2019-08-29", 0.249], ["2019-08-29", 0.246], ["2019-08-29", 0.246], ["2019-08-30", 0.246], ["2019-08-30", 0.241], ["2019-09-02", 0.241], ["2019-09-02", 0.247], ["2019-09-02", 0.247], ["2019-09-03", 0.247], ["2019-09-04", 0.249], ["2019-09-04", 0.249], ["2019-09-05", 0.249], ["2019-09-05", 0.249], ["2019-09-06", 0.247], ["2019-09-06", 0.244], ["2019-09-10", 0.244], ["2019-09-10", 0.24], ["2019-09-11", 0.24], ["2019-09-13", 0.236], ["2019-09-13", 0.235], ["2019-09-15", 0.235], ["2019-09-15", 0.235], ["2019-09-16", 0.234], ["2019-09-18", 0.234], ["2019-09-18", 0.234], ["2019-09-21", 0.232], ["2019-09-21", 0.23], ["2019-09-22", 0.225], ["2019-09-22", 0.22]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2931/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As of the time of writing this question, Election Betting Odds reports that Donald Trump has a 47.4% of winning the US presidency.
Will Election Betting Odds report a higher than 60.0% chance of Trump winning the US presidency in 2020 for any 1 hour period before 23:59 November 30, 2019? | true | 2019-09-22 | Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-01 | 2019-07-10 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-13", 0.32], ["2019-07-13", 0.535], ["2019-07-13", 0.524], ["2019-07-13", 0.524], ["2019-07-14", 0.52], ["2019-07-14", 0.527], ["2019-07-14", 0.497], ["2019-07-15", 0.508], ["2019-07-15", 0.519], ["2019-07-15", 0.527], ["2019-07-15", 0.525], ["2019-07-17", 0.525], ["2019-07-17", 0.534], ["2019-07-18", 0.534], ["2019-07-20", 0.54], ["2019-07-21", 0.54], ["2019-07-23", 0.542], ["2019-07-23", 0.558], ["2019-07-26", 0.558], ["2019-07-27", 0.56], ["2019-07-28", 0.541], ["2019-07-28", 0.542], ["2019-07-31", 0.542], ["2019-07-31", 0.538], ["2019-07-31", 0.544], ["2019-08-01", 0.542], ["2019-08-01", 0.539], ["2019-08-04", 0.533], ["2019-08-05", 0.534], ["2019-08-05", 0.533], ["2019-08-08", 0.532], ["2019-08-08", 0.531], ["2019-08-10", 0.531], ["2019-08-13", 0.521], ["2019-08-13", 0.526], ["2019-08-15", 0.521], ["2019-08-19", 0.517], ["2019-08-19", 0.517], ["2019-08-29", 0.53], ["2019-08-31", 0.53], ["2019-09-01", 0.522], ["2019-09-07", 0.522], ["2019-09-09", 0.517], ["2019-09-10", 0.513], ["2019-09-16", 0.513], ["2019-09-22", 0.509], ["2019-09-27", 0.522], ["2019-10-02", 0.521], ["2019-10-14", 0.52], ["2019-10-14", 0.519], ["2019-10-15", 0.519], ["2019-10-15", 0.518], ["2019-10-18", 0.514], ["2019-10-24", 0.513], ["2019-10-24", 0.511], ["2019-10-30", 0.508], ["2019-10-31", 0.504], ["2019-10-31", 0.505], ["2019-11-05", 0.495], ["2019-11-06", 0.452], ["2019-11-06", 0.452], ["2019-11-06", 0.423], ["2019-11-06", 0.397], ["2019-11-06", 0.397], ["2019-11-07", 0.398], ["2019-11-08", 0.388], ["2019-11-09", 0.382], ["2019-11-10", 0.373], ["2019-11-12", 0.371], ["2019-11-15", 0.368], ["2019-11-15", 0.362], ["2019-11-16", 0.372], ["2019-11-16", 0.362], ["2019-11-16", 0.362], ["2019-11-16", 0.358], ["2019-11-17", 0.357], ["2019-11-17", 0.356], ["2019-11-17", 0.366], ["2019-11-18", 0.358], ["2019-11-18", 0.358], ["2019-11-18", 0.358], ["2019-11-18", 0.355], ["2019-11-19", 0.349], ["2019-11-20", 0.343], ["2019-11-20", 0.343], ["2019-11-21", 0.343], ["2019-11-22", 0.341], ["2019-11-23", 0.336], ["2019-11-23", 0.338], ["2019-11-24", 0.333], ["2019-11-25", 0.333], ["2019-11-26", 0.328], ["2019-11-26", 0.328], ["2019-11-26", 0.326], ["2019-11-27", 0.326], ["2019-11-28", 0.324], ["2019-11-28", 0.318], ["2019-11-28", 0.292], ["2019-11-29", 0.272], ["2019-11-29", 0.271], ["2019-11-29", 0.253]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2934/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
Frequent and sometimes even deadly attacks against the Ebola response efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) threaten successful containment of the disease to DRC's borders (Economist, AlJazeera, Vox, France24). Some high risk countries bordering DRC, for example Uganda, have instituted preparedness responses (WHO).
Note: This question concerns the countries neighboring the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and not the DRC itself. | true | 2019-11-29 | Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-05-30 | 2019-07-10 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-12", 0.47], ["2019-07-13", 0.251], ["2019-07-14", 0.246], ["2019-07-14", 0.251], ["2019-07-15", 0.241], ["2019-07-15", 0.272], ["2019-07-16", 0.28], ["2019-07-17", 0.294], ["2019-07-17", 0.331], ["2019-07-19", 0.334], ["2019-07-19", 0.334], ["2019-07-20", 0.33], ["2019-07-20", 0.318], ["2019-07-21", 0.317], ["2019-07-22", 0.317], ["2019-07-25", 0.32], ["2019-07-25", 0.321], ["2019-07-26", 0.321], ["2019-07-28", 0.324], ["2019-07-28", 0.324], ["2019-07-29", 0.316], ["2019-07-30", 0.316], ["2019-07-31", 0.309], ["2019-07-31", 0.305], ["2019-08-01", 0.306], ["2019-08-02", 0.304], ["2019-08-05", 0.305], ["2019-08-07", 0.305], ["2019-08-08", 0.303], ["2019-08-09", 0.301], ["2019-08-10", 0.301], ["2019-08-15", 0.303], ["2019-08-22", 0.305], ["2019-08-23", 0.302], ["2019-08-24", 0.301], ["2019-08-28", 0.301], ["2019-08-29", 0.297], ["2019-08-29", 0.292], ["2019-08-30", 0.277], ["2019-08-31", 0.281], ["2019-08-31", 0.281], ["2019-09-01", 0.277], ["2019-09-02", 0.278], ["2019-09-03", 0.274], ["2019-09-04", 0.267], ["2019-09-05", 0.267], ["2019-09-05", 0.266], ["2019-09-07", 0.265], ["2019-09-10", 0.267], ["2019-09-12", 0.267], ["2019-09-13", 0.266], ["2019-09-13", 0.266], ["2019-09-14", 0.265], ["2019-09-16", 0.265], ["2019-09-17", 0.259], ["2019-09-18", 0.253], ["2019-09-18", 0.245], ["2019-09-19", 0.243], ["2019-09-19", 0.242], ["2019-09-20", 0.242], ["2019-09-21", 0.235], ["2019-09-21", 0.234], ["2019-09-22", 0.234], ["2019-09-26", 0.232], ["2019-09-27", 0.232], ["2019-09-29", 0.231], ["2019-09-29", 0.227], ["2019-09-30", 0.223], ["2019-09-30", 0.221], ["2019-10-01", 0.219], ["2019-10-01", 0.217], ["2019-10-02", 0.217], ["2019-10-03", 0.216], ["2019-10-04", 0.216], ["2019-10-04", 0.215], ["2019-10-06", 0.215], ["2019-10-09", 0.214], ["2019-10-10", 0.214], ["2019-10-11", 0.213], ["2019-10-11", 0.21], ["2019-10-13", 0.21], ["2019-10-13", 0.209], ["2019-10-15", 0.21], ["2019-10-16", 0.21], ["2019-10-16", 0.21], ["2019-10-16", 0.21], ["2019-10-17", 0.21], ["2019-10-20", 0.207], ["2019-10-21", 0.207], ["2019-10-21", 0.206], ["2019-10-22", 0.206], ["2019-10-23", 0.201], ["2019-10-24", 0.201], ["2019-10-25", 0.2], ["2019-10-26", 0.199], ["2019-10-28", 0.198], ["2019-10-28", 0.198], ["2019-10-29", 0.197], ["2019-10-30", 0.196], ["2019-10-31", 0.187], ["2019-10-31", 0.186]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2936/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) is a human spaceflight development program that is funded by the U.S. government and administered by NASA. CCDev will result in US and international astronauts flying to the International Space Station (ISS) on privately operated crew vehicles.
Operational contracts to fly astronauts were awarded in September 2014 to SpaceX and Boeing.
Both companies suffered delays.
SpaceX already managed to successfully demonstrate uncrewed test flight in March 2019, while Boeing is still planning this step no earlier than August 2019. However, SpaceX suffered a setback due to an explosion of a test spacecraft during testing on Earth.
Metaculus previously estimated:
Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020? to be 38%
Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020? to be 13%
Both crewed test flights of Dragon 2 and CST-100 are scheduled no earlier than November 2019. With SpaceX targeting 15 November 2019 and Boeing 30 November 2019.
This question asks:
Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?
For this question to resolve positively Boeing needs to deliver 2 living astronauts to International Space Station before SpaceX. The question will resolve negatively if SpaceX manages to do the same before Boeing. The question will resolve ambiguous if neither SpaceX nor Boeing manage to meet the goal before 2025. | true | 2019-10-31 | Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-01 | 2019-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-14", 0.37], ["2019-07-15", 0.37], ["2019-07-15", 0.31], ["2019-07-15", 0.307], ["2019-07-15", 0.355], ["2019-07-15", 0.364], ["2019-07-15", 0.364], ["2019-07-15", 0.343], ["2019-07-15", 0.343], ["2019-07-15", 0.306], ["2019-07-16", 0.306], ["2019-07-17", 0.27], ["2019-07-18", 0.27], ["2019-07-20", 0.26], ["2019-07-20", 0.268], ["2019-07-21", 0.28], ["2019-07-21", 0.278], ["2019-07-22", 0.284], ["2019-07-22", 0.283], ["2019-07-25", 0.29], ["2019-07-26", 0.279], ["2019-07-26", 0.278], ["2019-07-28", 0.278], ["2019-07-29", 0.273], ["2019-07-29", 0.273], ["2019-07-31", 0.269], ["2019-08-08", 0.269], ["2019-08-10", 0.274], ["2019-08-10", 0.274], ["2019-08-12", 0.277], ["2019-08-13", 0.277], ["2019-08-13", 0.279], ["2019-08-20", 0.282], ["2019-08-26", 0.282], ["2019-09-03", 0.286], ["2019-09-08", 0.286], ["2019-09-13", 0.285], ["2019-09-21", 0.284], ["2019-09-26", 0.288], ["2019-09-29", 0.288], ["2019-10-02", 0.289], ["2019-10-03", 0.289], ["2019-10-03", 0.291], ["2019-10-05", 0.289], ["2019-10-08", 0.274], ["2019-10-13", 0.274], ["2019-10-15", 0.258], ["2019-10-21", 0.258], ["2019-10-22", 0.256], ["2019-10-25", 0.254], ["2019-10-25", 0.254], ["2019-10-25", 0.247], ["2019-10-25", 0.247], ["2019-10-25", 0.245], ["2019-10-25", 0.245], ["2019-10-25", 0.24], ["2019-10-25", 0.24], ["2019-10-25", 0.229], ["2019-10-25", 0.227], ["2019-10-25", 0.227], ["2019-10-25", 0.219], ["2019-10-25", 0.218], ["2019-10-27", 0.218], ["2019-10-27", 0.212], ["2019-10-27", 0.212], ["2019-10-27", 0.212], ["2019-10-27", 0.207], ["2019-10-27", 0.207], ["2019-10-28", 0.201], ["2019-10-28", 0.2], ["2019-10-28", 0.196], ["2019-10-29", 0.196], ["2019-10-29", 0.19], ["2019-10-30", 0.185], ["2019-10-30", 0.178], ["2019-10-30", 0.178], ["2019-10-30", 0.169], ["2019-10-31", 0.169], ["2019-10-31", 0.169], ["2019-10-31", 0.161], ["2019-10-31", 0.161], ["2019-10-31", 0.152], ["2019-10-31", 0.144]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2938/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
The EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions (also called the "EU blacklist of tax havens") was established by the Finance Ministers of EU Member States to indicate countries that fail to meet agreed upon "tax good governance" standards. This question will be resolved based on the information listed on the EU blacklist. | true | 2019-10-31 | Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-14 | 2019-07-11 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-14", 0.6], ["2019-07-15", 0.635], ["2019-07-15", 0.635], ["2019-07-15", 0.532], ["2019-07-15", 0.532], ["2019-07-15", 0.542], ["2019-07-15", 0.542], ["2019-07-15", 0.553], ["2019-07-15", 0.562], ["2019-07-16", 0.573], ["2019-07-16", 0.539], ["2019-07-16", 0.559], ["2019-07-16", 0.564], ["2019-07-17", 0.559], ["2019-07-17", 0.584], ["2019-07-17", 0.596], ["2019-07-17", 0.596], ["2019-07-17", 0.597], ["2019-07-17", 0.613], ["2019-07-17", 0.613], ["2019-07-17", 0.615], ["2019-07-17", 0.631], ["2019-07-17", 0.636], ["2019-07-18", 0.643], ["2019-07-18", 0.637], ["2019-07-18", 0.645], ["2019-07-18", 0.648], ["2019-07-18", 0.64], ["2019-07-18", 0.644], ["2019-07-18", 0.644], ["2019-07-19", 0.646], ["2019-07-20", 0.659], ["2019-07-20", 0.663], ["2019-07-20", 0.663], ["2019-07-20", 0.665], ["2019-07-21", 0.661], ["2019-07-21", 0.661], ["2019-07-21", 0.663], ["2019-07-22", 0.65], ["2019-07-27", 0.654], ["2019-07-28", 0.654], ["2019-07-29", 0.659], ["2019-07-31", 0.656], ["2019-08-05", 0.656], ["2019-08-10", 0.655], ["2019-08-13", 0.653], ["2019-08-15", 0.657], ["2019-08-19", 0.657], ["2019-08-26", 0.659], ["2019-08-28", 0.653], ["2019-08-29", 0.656], ["2019-08-30", 0.658], ["2019-08-30", 0.656], ["2019-08-30", 0.654], ["2019-08-30", 0.654], ["2019-09-05", 0.655], ["2019-09-10", 0.653], ["2019-09-12", 0.645], ["2019-09-14", 0.645], ["2019-09-22", 0.645], ["2019-09-22", 0.654], ["2019-09-22", 0.657], ["2019-09-24", 0.655], ["2019-09-26", 0.654], ["2019-09-27", 0.653], ["2019-10-02", 0.653], ["2019-10-10", 0.652], ["2019-10-10", 0.644], ["2019-10-10", 0.644], ["2019-10-10", 0.641], ["2019-10-11", 0.641], ["2019-10-11", 0.637], ["2019-10-11", 0.64], ["2019-10-11", 0.639], ["2019-10-11", 0.638], ["2019-10-14", 0.635], ["2019-10-14", 0.636], ["2019-10-14", 0.636], ["2019-10-14", 0.635], ["2019-10-14", 0.635], ["2019-10-14", 0.638], ["2019-10-14", 0.638], ["2019-10-14", 0.648], ["2019-10-14", 0.647], ["2019-10-14", 0.647], ["2019-10-15", 0.653], ["2019-10-15", 0.653], ["2019-10-17", 0.652], ["2019-10-25", 0.653], ["2019-10-25", 0.653], ["2019-10-25", 0.654], ["2019-10-27", 0.654], ["2019-10-30", 0.654], ["2019-10-31", 0.654], ["2019-10-31", 0.655], ["2019-11-06", 0.655], ["2019-11-06", 0.656], ["2019-11-07", 0.657], ["2019-11-08", 0.656], ["2019-11-09", 0.655], ["2019-11-10", 0.656]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2939/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge 2.
In the wake of the recent measles outbreak across Europe (EuroNews), German Health Minister Jens Spahn has drafted legislation imposing a fine on parents who refuse the measles vaccine for their children (TheGuardian). Adoption by the Bundestag entails passing three readings before proceeding to the next stage of the legislative process (Bundestag, GermanConstitution). | true | 2019-11-29 | Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-01 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.4], ["2019-07-21", 0.279], ["2019-07-22", 0.337], ["2019-07-23", 0.342], ["2019-07-23", 0.365], ["2019-07-25", 0.365], ["2019-07-25", 0.349], ["2019-07-27", 0.349], ["2019-07-28", 0.347], ["2019-07-30", 0.358], ["2019-07-31", 0.361], ["2019-08-01", 0.335], ["2019-08-05", 0.337], ["2019-08-23", 0.337], ["2019-08-24", 0.336], ["2019-08-26", 0.336], ["2019-08-29", 0.345], ["2019-09-02", 0.337], ["2019-09-07", 0.337], ["2019-09-07", 0.339], ["2019-09-11", 0.339], ["2019-09-21", 0.335], ["2019-09-26", 0.335], ["2019-09-27", 0.339], ["2019-10-02", 0.341], ["2019-10-03", 0.34], ["2019-10-04", 0.315], ["2019-10-05", 0.308], ["2019-10-07", 0.31], ["2019-10-08", 0.314], ["2019-10-11", 0.312], ["2019-10-13", 0.278], ["2019-10-14", 0.278], ["2019-10-15", 0.276], ["2019-10-17", 0.27], ["2019-10-18", 0.267], ["2019-10-18", 0.254], ["2019-10-20", 0.255], ["2019-10-21", 0.257], ["2019-10-22", 0.249], ["2019-10-24", 0.246], ["2019-10-27", 0.243], ["2019-10-27", 0.243], ["2019-11-20", 0.244], ["2019-12-05", 0.244], ["2019-12-21", 0.241], ["2019-12-26", 0.239], ["2019-12-27", 0.238], ["2019-12-31", 0.238], ["2020-01-02", 0.236], ["2020-01-04", 0.235], ["2020-01-05", 0.235], ["2020-01-09", 0.236], ["2020-01-12", 0.234], ["2020-01-16", 0.234], ["2020-01-21", 0.234], ["2020-01-23", 0.228], ["2020-01-24", 0.228], ["2020-01-26", 0.228], ["2020-01-27", 0.227], ["2020-02-01", 0.226], ["2020-02-01", 0.226], ["2020-02-03", 0.224], ["2020-02-04", 0.224], ["2020-02-15", 0.224], ["2020-02-16", 0.226], ["2020-02-24", 0.226], ["2020-02-25", 0.222], ["2020-03-03", 0.223], ["2020-03-05", 0.223], ["2020-03-06", 0.221], ["2020-03-07", 0.22], ["2020-03-10", 0.218], ["2020-03-11", 0.215], ["2020-03-17", 0.215], ["2020-03-22", 0.215], ["2020-03-23", 0.219], ["2020-03-27", 0.218], ["2020-03-28", 0.216], ["2020-03-31", 0.215], ["2020-04-02", 0.216], ["2020-04-03", 0.21], ["2020-04-04", 0.211], ["2020-04-05", 0.21], ["2020-04-07", 0.21], ["2020-04-08", 0.206], ["2020-04-11", 0.206], ["2020-04-12", 0.207], ["2020-04-14", 0.205], ["2020-04-15", 0.205], ["2020-04-16", 0.203], ["2020-04-17", 0.203], ["2020-04-19", 0.207], ["2020-04-22", 0.207], ["2020-04-23", 0.207], ["2020-04-24", 0.208], ["2020-04-25", 0.207], ["2020-04-26", 0.206], ["2020-04-28", 0.205], ["2020-04-30", 0.209], ["2020-05-01", 0.21]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2945/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Related question: What will be the daily volume of Facebook's Libra coin by Oct 1st 2020?
Amid the hype of the new Facebook cryptocurrency initiative Libra, there has been a corresponding backlash, with hearings in Congress about anti-competitive behavior and potential anti-trust violations.
Facebook's been known to move fast and break things, but given the scale of the opposition to their payments play, we now ask:
Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?
This will resolve true if a member of the general public in the U.S. can buy and sell Libra. | true | 2020-05-01 | Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-01 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.53], ["2019-07-20", 0.505], ["2019-07-21", 0.613], ["2019-07-22", 0.598], ["2019-07-22", 0.605], ["2019-07-23", 0.605], ["2019-07-24", 0.601], ["2019-07-25", 0.6], ["2019-07-28", 0.6], ["2019-07-28", 0.59], ["2019-07-30", 0.595], ["2019-07-31", 0.59], ["2019-08-01", 0.566], ["2019-08-01", 0.556], ["2019-08-03", 0.557], ["2019-08-03", 0.557], ["2019-08-06", 0.558], ["2019-08-08", 0.559], ["2019-08-12", 0.562], ["2019-08-13", 0.562], ["2019-08-13", 0.563], ["2019-08-22", 0.564], ["2019-08-24", 0.564], ["2019-08-26", 0.569], ["2019-08-26", 0.569], ["2019-08-29", 0.57], ["2019-09-16", 0.569], ["2019-09-17", 0.569], ["2019-09-20", 0.572], ["2019-09-22", 0.572], ["2019-09-22", 0.576], ["2019-09-26", 0.576], ["2019-09-28", 0.576], ["2019-10-03", 0.576], ["2019-10-03", 0.577], ["2019-10-17", 0.576], ["2019-10-25", 0.575], ["2019-10-30", 0.575], ["2019-11-03", 0.572], ["2019-11-05", 0.572], ["2019-11-17", 0.579], ["2019-11-17", 0.574], ["2019-11-18", 0.574], ["2019-11-20", 0.579], ["2019-11-21", 0.579], ["2019-11-21", 0.577], ["2019-11-23", 0.577], ["2019-11-24", 0.577], ["2019-11-29", 0.574], ["2019-11-30", 0.576], ["2019-11-30", 0.576], ["2019-12-05", 0.571], ["2019-12-05", 0.571], ["2019-12-09", 0.57], ["2019-12-12", 0.565], ["2019-12-17", 0.565], ["2019-12-18", 0.565], ["2019-12-19", 0.566], ["2019-12-21", 0.566], ["2019-12-21", 0.571], ["2019-12-30", 0.573], ["2020-01-03", 0.575], ["2020-01-04", 0.573], ["2020-01-07", 0.573], ["2020-01-08", 0.561], ["2020-01-09", 0.559], ["2020-01-13", 0.553], ["2020-01-13", 0.553], ["2020-01-21", 0.555], ["2020-01-23", 0.56], ["2020-01-24", 0.56], ["2020-01-25", 0.563], ["2020-01-27", 0.559], ["2020-01-27", 0.56], ["2020-01-28", 0.56], ["2020-01-28", 0.565], ["2020-01-31", 0.561], ["2020-02-01", 0.561], ["2020-02-03", 0.561], ["2020-02-04", 0.562], ["2020-02-04", 0.562], ["2020-02-05", 0.562], ["2020-02-06", 0.556], ["2020-02-07", 0.553], ["2020-02-08", 0.544], ["2020-02-08", 0.54], ["2020-02-10", 0.54], ["2020-02-11", 0.539], ["2020-02-12", 0.534], ["2020-02-14", 0.532], ["2020-02-15", 0.531], ["2020-02-16", 0.532], ["2020-02-18", 0.527], ["2020-02-20", 0.524], ["2020-02-21", 0.522], ["2020-02-23", 0.524], ["2020-02-24", 0.524], ["2020-02-25", 0.521], ["2020-02-26", 0.521], ["2020-02-29", 0.522], ["2020-03-01", 0.523]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2946/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana declared his Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019 and enjoyed an impressive rise in name recognition and campaign contributions. As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 5% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.
By May 5, 2020, when Indiana's primary is scheduled to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be little more than two months away.
Will Pete Buttigieg have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Indiana's primary election?
This resolves positive if before the 2020 Indiana Democratic primary, Pete Buttigieg has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Indiana Democratic primary is currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports. | true | 2020-03-02 | Will Pete Buttigieg drop out before the Indiana primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-13 | 2019-07-16 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-20", 0.72], ["2019-07-20", 0.703], ["2019-07-20", 0.68], ["2019-07-20", 0.778], ["2019-07-21", 0.772], ["2019-07-21", 0.761], ["2019-07-21", 0.751], ["2019-07-22", 0.762], ["2019-07-22", 0.767], ["2019-07-22", 0.778], ["2019-07-22", 0.778], ["2019-07-23", 0.79], ["2019-07-23", 0.791], ["2019-07-23", 0.795], ["2019-07-23", 0.791], ["2019-07-24", 0.788], ["2019-07-24", 0.789], ["2019-07-27", 0.789], ["2019-07-28", 0.793], ["2019-07-29", 0.788], ["2019-07-30", 0.788], ["2019-07-30", 0.783], ["2019-07-31", 0.78], ["2019-08-01", 0.78], ["2019-08-02", 0.769], ["2019-08-02", 0.777], ["2019-08-03", 0.776], ["2019-08-05", 0.773], ["2019-08-06", 0.773], ["2019-08-08", 0.768], ["2019-08-08", 0.768], ["2019-08-09", 0.768], ["2019-08-12", 0.771], ["2019-08-17", 0.771], ["2019-08-20", 0.772], ["2019-08-20", 0.771], ["2019-08-22", 0.774], ["2019-08-26", 0.774], ["2019-08-28", 0.775], ["2019-08-28", 0.77], ["2019-08-28", 0.775], ["2019-08-31", 0.778], ["2019-09-07", 0.779], ["2019-09-10", 0.779], ["2019-09-20", 0.784], ["2019-09-21", 0.781], ["2019-09-21", 0.796], ["2019-09-22", 0.805], ["2019-09-22", 0.811], ["2019-09-22", 0.811], ["2019-09-29", 0.812], ["2019-09-29", 0.823], ["2019-09-30", 0.824], ["2019-09-30", 0.828], ["2019-09-30", 0.835], ["2019-10-01", 0.834], ["2019-10-01", 0.834], ["2019-10-01", 0.837], ["2019-10-02", 0.846], ["2019-10-03", 0.847], ["2019-10-04", 0.847], ["2019-10-09", 0.846], ["2019-10-13", 0.849], ["2019-10-25", 0.849], ["2019-10-25", 0.837], ["2019-10-27", 0.836], ["2019-10-30", 0.835], ["2019-11-17", 0.835], ["2019-11-21", 0.838], ["2019-11-30", 0.836], ["2019-12-05", 0.838], ["2019-12-05", 0.838], ["2019-12-12", 0.838], ["2019-12-14", 0.841], ["2019-12-14", 0.844], ["2019-12-14", 0.844], ["2019-12-17", 0.844], ["2019-12-18", 0.847], ["2019-12-21", 0.847], ["2019-12-21", 0.85], ["2019-12-23", 0.85], ["2020-01-01", 0.851], ["2020-01-02", 0.852], ["2020-01-03", 0.852], ["2020-01-04", 0.853], ["2020-01-04", 0.849], ["2020-01-07", 0.849], ["2020-01-07", 0.848], ["2020-01-08", 0.85], ["2020-01-08", 0.853], ["2020-01-08", 0.853], ["2020-01-09", 0.853], ["2020-01-09", 0.854], ["2020-01-10", 0.854], ["2020-01-11", 0.867], ["2020-01-11", 0.867], ["2020-01-12", 0.868], ["2020-01-12", 0.868], ["2020-01-12", 0.868], ["2020-01-12", 0.872], ["2020-01-12", 0.872]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2947/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Junior Senator from New Jersey and former Newark Mayor Cory Booker declared his Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019, bringing a strong resume and an impressive number of endorsements from New Jersey politicians. As of mid-July 2019 he stands at around 2% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.
New Jersey's primary will be in the very last round of voting, on June 2, 2020, less than two months from the party convention.
Will Cory Booker have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New Jersey's primary election?
This resolves positive if before the 2020 New Jersey Democratic primary, Cory Booker has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 New Jersey primary is currently scheduled for June 2, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports. | true | 2020-06-01 | Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-01-01 | 2019-07-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-07-22", 0.275], ["2019-07-23", 0.513], ["2019-07-24", 0.504], ["2019-07-26", 0.509], ["2019-07-27", 0.522], ["2019-07-28", 0.522], ["2019-07-30", 0.529], ["2019-07-31", 0.521], ["2019-08-02", 0.496], ["2019-08-09", 0.489], ["2019-08-09", 0.486], ["2019-08-26", 0.486], ["2019-08-28", 0.49], ["2019-08-31", 0.499], ["2019-09-02", 0.499], ["2019-09-02", 0.488], ["2019-09-17", 0.488], ["2019-09-20", 0.485], ["2019-10-02", 0.485], ["2019-10-04", 0.484], ["2019-10-05", 0.485], ["2019-10-06", 0.485], ["2019-10-08", 0.481], ["2019-10-22", 0.482], ["2019-10-23", 0.473], ["2019-10-24", 0.472], ["2019-10-30", 0.472], ["2019-11-12", 0.472], ["2019-11-28", 0.472], ["2019-11-30", 0.473], ["2019-12-06", 0.461], ["2019-12-17", 0.461], ["2020-01-01", 0.457], ["2020-01-02", 0.451], ["2020-01-08", 0.45], ["2020-01-10", 0.447], ["2020-01-10", 0.442], ["2020-01-13", 0.438], ["2020-01-15", 0.442], ["2020-01-21", 0.452], ["2020-01-23", 0.449], ["2020-01-30", 0.447], ["2020-02-03", 0.448], ["2020-02-04", 0.446], ["2020-02-06", 0.446], ["2020-02-11", 0.442], ["2020-02-11", 0.442], ["2020-02-21", 0.441], ["2020-02-22", 0.444], ["2020-02-23", 0.444], ["2020-02-29", 0.445], ["2020-03-04", 0.445], ["2020-03-05", 0.441], ["2020-03-07", 0.441], ["2020-03-09", 0.439], ["2020-03-11", 0.433], ["2020-03-14", 0.433], ["2020-03-16", 0.433], ["2020-03-17", 0.434], ["2020-03-18", 0.432], ["2020-03-22", 0.43], ["2020-03-23", 0.43], ["2020-03-28", 0.427], ["2020-03-31", 0.425], ["2020-04-02", 0.425], ["2020-04-03", 0.423], ["2020-04-05", 0.423], ["2020-04-07", 0.422], ["2020-04-09", 0.418], ["2020-04-11", 0.418], ["2020-04-13", 0.413], ["2020-04-17", 0.418], ["2020-04-17", 0.416], ["2020-04-21", 0.416], ["2020-04-23", 0.413], ["2020-04-25", 0.412], ["2020-04-25", 0.411], ["2020-04-28", 0.41], ["2020-04-29", 0.412], ["2020-04-30", 0.411], ["2020-05-02", 0.411], ["2020-05-03", 0.409], ["2020-05-05", 0.406], ["2020-05-08", 0.408], ["2020-05-09", 0.407], ["2020-05-11", 0.404], ["2020-05-12", 0.403], ["2020-05-14", 0.404], ["2020-05-15", 0.405], ["2020-05-16", 0.405], ["2020-05-18", 0.409], ["2020-05-19", 0.406], ["2020-05-20", 0.406], ["2020-05-21", 0.405], ["2020-05-23", 0.404], ["2020-05-25", 0.405], ["2020-05-26", 0.405], ["2020-05-28", 0.406], ["2020-05-29", 0.405], ["2020-05-31", 0.401], ["2020-05-31", 0.409]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2951/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Neuralink Corporation is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).
Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.
At that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin "threads" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.
In the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.
Needless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.
Elon Musk: "From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI." (See 00:35 in the video.)
"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants." (See 02:55 in the video.)
"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally." (See 05:55 in the video.)
You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here, and read their paper An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human?
You can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.
The implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.
Note that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution.
Resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure. | true | 2020-05-31 | Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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We are going to fulfill the repeated promises of parliament to the people and come out of the EU on October 31, no ifs or buts. And we will do a new deal, a better deal that will maximise the opportunities of Brexit while allowing us to develop a new and exciting partnership with the rest of Europe.
So, the question is: will Brexit - an event after which UK is no longer part of the EU - occur by the end of the day (UTC) October 31, 2019?
The question resolves positively if UK is no longer part of the European Union by the end of the day October 31, and negatively if it still remains substantially in its current status. For the purposes of the question, the cutoff point is defined as the moment when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. This can happen, for example: by withdrawal agreement between UK and EU, or by the end of the negotiating period as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (provided it is not extended further without any change in status happening - in this case the resolution is negative), repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act, etc. If the agreement specifies that the UK is no longer part of the EU, and is in force by October 31, the resolution is positive even if implementation of some parts of the agreement - e.g. trade deals or customs regime or visa policy - is happening past October 31.
If the UK leaves the EU but parts of the UK remain in the EU (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) with some kind of special status, the resolution is still positive as long as the main part of the UK - the one inheriting the current government structure - leaves the EU.
If there is the substantial change in status, but the links with EU are not severed completely, e.g. if some special status for the whole UK is introduced which is intermediate between full membership and full withdrawal, the resolution is ambiguous. | true | 2019-10-01 | Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-29 | 2019-08-02 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-05", 0.46], ["2019-08-05", 0.557], ["2019-08-05", 0.532], ["2019-08-05", 0.532], ["2019-08-05", 0.438], ["2019-08-05", 0.419], ["2019-08-05", 0.4], ["2019-08-05", 0.383], ["2019-08-05", 0.383], ["2019-08-05", 0.44], ["2019-08-05", 0.458], ["2019-08-05", 0.476], ["2019-08-06", 0.476], ["2019-08-06", 0.468], ["2019-08-06", 0.462], ["2019-08-06", 0.469], ["2019-08-06", 0.467], ["2019-08-06", 0.465], ["2019-08-07", 0.459], ["2019-08-07", 0.47], ["2019-08-07", 0.475], ["2019-08-07", 0.483], ["2019-08-08", 0.483], ["2019-08-08", 0.49], ["2019-08-08", 0.493], ["2019-08-08", 0.493], ["2019-08-08", 0.497], ["2019-08-09", 0.497], ["2019-08-09", 0.497], ["2019-08-09", 0.483], ["2019-08-09", 0.485], ["2019-08-09", 0.483], ["2019-08-09", 0.484], ["2019-08-09", 0.491], ["2019-08-09", 0.491], ["2019-08-09", 0.495], ["2019-08-10", 0.495], ["2019-08-10", 0.497], ["2019-08-10", 0.5], ["2019-08-11", 0.503], ["2019-08-11", 0.498], ["2019-08-11", 0.498], ["2019-08-11", 0.501], ["2019-08-12", 0.502], ["2019-08-12", 0.502], ["2019-08-12", 0.503], ["2019-08-12", 0.504], ["2019-08-12", 0.509], ["2019-08-12", 0.51], ["2019-08-12", 0.515], ["2019-08-13", 0.515], ["2019-08-13", 0.515], ["2019-08-13", 0.515], ["2019-08-13", 0.517], ["2019-08-13", 0.517], ["2019-08-14", 0.517], ["2019-08-15", 0.516], ["2019-08-16", 0.518], ["2019-08-16", 0.517], ["2019-08-16", 0.517], ["2019-08-16", 0.513], ["2019-08-16", 0.517], ["2019-08-17", 0.517], ["2019-08-17", 0.517], ["2019-08-17", 0.517], ["2019-08-18", 0.516], ["2019-08-19", 0.516], ["2019-08-20", 0.516], ["2019-08-20", 0.515], ["2019-08-22", 0.515], ["2019-08-26", 0.516], ["2019-08-26", 0.518], ["2019-08-26", 0.518], ["2019-08-27", 0.525], ["2019-08-27", 0.526], ["2019-08-27", 0.522], ["2019-08-27", 0.522], ["2019-08-27", 0.522], ["2019-08-28", 0.521], ["2019-08-28", 0.52], ["2019-08-28", 0.52], ["2019-08-29", 0.521], ["2019-08-29", 0.526], ["2019-08-30", 0.526], ["2019-08-30", 0.526], ["2019-08-30", 0.526], ["2019-08-30", 0.526], ["2019-08-30", 0.521], ["2019-08-30", 0.523], ["2019-08-30", 0.519], ["2019-08-31", 0.515], ["2019-08-31", 0.514], ["2019-08-31", 0.514], ["2019-08-31", 0.508], ["2019-08-31", 0.512], ["2019-08-31", 0.511], ["2019-08-31", 0.509], ["2019-08-31", 0.505], ["2019-08-31", 0.506], ["2019-08-31", 0.507], ["2019-08-31", 0.503]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2971/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The Great British Pound (GBP) recently fell to its lowest level against the Euro (EUR) in two years. It is currently (2nd of August 2019) trading at around €1.093.
Will the GBP trade at equal to, or less than, €1.000 at any time before January 1st, 2020?
Current and historical rates are available from XE Currency Data. Resolution should be based on figures XE Currency Data.
This question was inspired by (and partly copied from) this question, by Jgalt the Prolific. | true | 2019-08-31 | British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-13 | 2019-08-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.775], ["2019-08-06", 0.775], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.75], ["2019-08-06", 0.732], ["2019-08-06", 0.754], ["2019-08-06", 0.76], ["2019-08-06", 0.78], ["2019-08-06", 0.764], ["2019-08-06", 0.76], ["2019-08-07", 0.756], ["2019-08-07", 0.756], ["2019-08-07", 0.759], ["2019-08-07", 0.754], ["2019-08-07", 0.771], ["2019-08-07", 0.771], ["2019-08-07", 0.773], ["2019-08-07", 0.786], ["2019-08-07", 0.787], ["2019-08-07", 0.787], ["2019-08-08", 0.799], ["2019-08-08", 0.799], ["2019-08-08", 0.813], ["2019-08-08", 0.816], ["2019-08-08", 0.821], ["2019-08-08", 0.827], ["2019-08-08", 0.836], ["2019-08-08", 0.842], ["2019-08-08", 0.846], ["2019-08-08", 0.85], ["2019-08-08", 0.854], ["2019-08-08", 0.859], ["2019-08-08", 0.861], ["2019-08-08", 0.856], ["2019-08-08", 0.863], ["2019-08-08", 0.871], ["2019-08-08", 0.871], ["2019-08-08", 0.866], ["2019-08-08", 0.869], ["2019-08-08", 0.872], ["2019-08-08", 0.875], ["2019-08-08", 0.873], ["2019-08-08", 0.864], ["2019-08-08", 0.864], ["2019-08-08", 0.839], ["2019-08-08", 0.837], ["2019-08-08", 0.837], ["2019-08-08", 0.835], ["2019-08-09", 0.833], ["2019-08-09", 0.836], ["2019-08-09", 0.828], ["2019-08-09", 0.828], ["2019-08-09", 0.815], ["2019-08-09", 0.808], ["2019-08-09", 0.815], ["2019-08-09", 0.813], ["2019-08-09", 0.811], ["2019-08-09", 0.805], ["2019-08-09", 0.805], ["2019-08-09", 0.805], ["2019-08-09", 0.805], ["2019-08-09", 0.805], ["2019-08-10", 0.806], ["2019-08-10", 0.813], ["2019-08-10", 0.815], ["2019-08-10", 0.813], ["2019-08-10", 0.815], ["2019-08-10", 0.815], ["2019-08-10", 0.813], ["2019-08-10", 0.805], ["2019-08-10", 0.793]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2975/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
As a proxy for the popularity of the protests, we can look at the daily Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" in Hong Kong (Google Trends).
Question: Between wednesday the 7th of August 2019 and Tuesday the 13th of August 2019 (incl.), will the daily Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" in Hong Kong go to at least 25% of the 12th of June 2019 value (the record as of writing)?
Precisions:
Resolves positive if the linked Google Trends shows any day in the relevant period with a search volume >= 25% of the 12th of June peak.
Resolves negative if no day satisfies this criterion.
In case of positive resolution, the question will be retroactively closed to the day before the day triggering resolution.
Google Trends being inaccessible or fundamentally changing their methodology resolves ambiguous. | true | 2019-08-10 | [Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak? | metaculus | 1 |
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In 2017 36.74% of AI publications on arXiv were in “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” and 14.42% were in “Computation and Language”.
Source arXiv.org is an online archive of research articles in the fields of physics, mathematics, computer science, quantitative biology, quantitative finance, statistics, electrical engineering and systems science, and economics. arXiv is owned and operated by Cornell University. See more information on arXiv.org.
Methodology The keywords we selected, and their respective categories, are below: Artificial intelligence (cs.AI) Computation and language (cs.CL) Computer vision and pattern recognition (cs.CV) Machine learning (cs.LG) Neural and evolutionary computing (cs.NE) Robotics (cs.RO) Machine learning in stats (stats.ML) For most categories, arXiv provided data years 1999 — 2017. For our analysis, we decided to start at the year 2010 in order to include Machine Learning in Stats, which did not exist on arXiv prior. To see other categories’ submission rates on arXiv, see arXiv.orgs submission statistics.
Nuance
Categories are self-identified by authors — those shown are selected as the “primary” category. Therefore, it is worth noting that there is not one streamlined categorization process. Additionally, the Artificial intelligence or Machine learning categories may be categorized by other subfields / keywords.
arXiv team members have shared that participation on arXiv can breed more participation — meaning that an increase in a subcategory on arXiv could drive over-indexed participation by certain communities.
Growth of papers on arXiv does not reflect actual growth of papers on that topic. Some growth can be attributed to arXiv.org’s efforts to increase their paper count, or to the increasing importance of dissemination by AI communities.
Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?
Resolution
The question will resolve as per the data published by the 2020 AI Index annual report. If the methodology substantially changes relative to the 2018 report, the question resolves ambiguous.
Data
Raw data for analysis was provided to AI Index team by representatives at arXiv.org. Historical data can be accessed here. Please make a copy if you wish to edit it. | true | 2019-12-31 | Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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The original benchmark, GLUE (General Language Understanding Evaluation) is a collection of language understanding tasks built on established existing datasets and selected to cover a diverse range of dataset sizes, text genres, and degrees of difficulty. The tasks were sourced from a survey of ML researchers, and it was launched in mid 2018. Several models have now surpassed the GLUE human baseline.
The new SuperGLUE benchmark contains a set of more difficult language understanding tasks. Human Level performance on the SuperGlue baseline is 89.8. The current best performing ML model as of July 19th, 2019 is BERT++ with a score of 71.5. Will language model performance have progressed enough that by next year one will have superhuman performance on the SuperGLUE benchmark? | Science & Tech | This question will be resolved as true if, according to the public SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard, a single entry has a score of 90% or higher. This question closes and resolves retroactively 48 hours before the first such score is listed on the SuperGLUE benchmark leaderboard. | true | 2019-12-30 | By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-07 | 2019-08-07 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-09", 0.33], ["2019-08-10", 0.272], ["2019-08-10", 0.272], ["2019-08-10", 0.285], ["2019-08-10", 0.285], ["2019-08-10", 0.291], ["2019-08-11", 0.299], ["2019-08-11", 0.299], ["2019-08-11", 0.325], ["2019-08-12", 0.312], ["2019-08-12", 0.317], ["2019-08-12", 0.361], ["2019-08-12", 0.361], ["2019-08-12", 0.365], ["2019-08-13", 0.362], ["2019-08-13", 0.356], ["2019-08-13", 0.366], ["2019-08-13", 0.369], ["2019-08-13", 0.379], ["2019-08-13", 0.395], ["2019-08-13", 0.439], ["2019-08-14", 0.453], ["2019-08-14", 0.453], ["2019-08-14", 0.448], ["2019-08-14", 0.448], ["2019-08-14", 0.453], ["2019-08-14", 0.45], ["2019-08-15", 0.453], ["2019-08-15", 0.455], ["2019-08-16", 0.452], ["2019-08-16", 0.453], ["2019-08-16", 0.428], ["2019-08-16", 0.429], ["2019-08-17", 0.433], ["2019-08-17", 0.428], ["2019-08-17", 0.426], ["2019-08-17", 0.425], ["2019-08-17", 0.424], ["2019-08-17", 0.421], ["2019-08-17", 0.421], ["2019-08-18", 0.408], ["2019-08-18", 0.408], ["2019-08-18", 0.41], ["2019-08-18", 0.403], ["2019-08-18", 0.403], ["2019-08-19", 0.405], ["2019-08-19", 0.405], ["2019-08-20", 0.402], ["2019-08-20", 0.401], ["2019-08-20", 0.401], ["2019-08-20", 0.386], ["2019-08-20", 0.385], ["2019-08-20", 0.383], ["2019-08-21", 0.383], ["2019-08-21", 0.374], ["2019-08-21", 0.37], ["2019-08-22", 0.367], ["2019-08-22", 0.367], ["2019-08-22", 0.365], ["2019-08-22", 0.359], ["2019-08-23", 0.356], ["2019-08-23", 0.356], ["2019-08-23", 0.353], ["2019-08-23", 0.352], ["2019-08-23", 0.348], ["2019-08-24", 0.348], ["2019-08-24", 0.347], ["2019-08-24", 0.345], ["2019-08-25", 0.342], ["2019-08-26", 0.339], ["2019-08-26", 0.336], ["2019-08-26", 0.33], ["2019-08-26", 0.329], ["2019-08-26", 0.33], ["2019-08-26", 0.326], ["2019-08-27", 0.325], ["2019-08-27", 0.319], ["2019-08-27", 0.313], ["2019-08-27", 0.31], ["2019-08-27", 0.308], ["2019-08-27", 0.296], ["2019-08-28", 0.291], ["2019-08-28", 0.286], ["2019-08-28", 0.286], ["2019-08-28", 0.284], ["2019-08-28", 0.278], ["2019-08-28", 0.273], ["2019-08-28", 0.267], ["2019-08-29", 0.267], ["2019-08-29", 0.261], ["2019-08-29", 0.253], ["2019-08-29", 0.243], ["2019-08-29", 0.239], ["2019-08-29", 0.233], ["2019-08-30", 0.233], ["2019-08-30", 0.234], ["2019-08-30", 0.228], ["2019-08-30", 0.226], ["2019-08-30", 0.214], ["2019-08-31", 0.192], ["2019-08-31", 0.178]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2985/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
On the 6th of August 2019, Chinese officials hardened their rethoric (Reuters: 1, 2, 3), but still did not mention the possibility of direct intervention from the mainland.
This article(fr) identifies three entities under direct chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:
The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationned in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.
The Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force.
Question: Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before septembre 1st 2019?
Positive resolution will be by either:
The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.
A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.
Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).
Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.
The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in August are not found before the end of 7th of September, 2019.
Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events. | true | 2019-08-31 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-02-07 | 2019-08-12 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_season", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady#2022_season"] | binary | [["2019-08-15", 0.5], ["2019-08-15", 0.66], ["2019-08-16", 0.66], ["2019-08-16", 0.605], ["2019-08-16", 0.528], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.556], ["2019-08-16", 0.547], ["2019-08-16", 0.547], ["2019-08-16", 0.55], ["2019-08-17", 0.544], ["2019-08-18", 0.544], ["2019-08-18", 0.55], ["2019-08-18", 0.547], ["2019-08-18", 0.535], ["2019-08-18", 0.543], ["2019-08-18", 0.543], ["2019-08-20", 0.543], ["2019-08-20", 0.534], ["2019-08-21", 0.524], ["2019-08-22", 0.524], ["2019-08-23", 0.516], ["2019-08-25", 0.534], ["2019-08-26", 0.534], ["2019-08-26", 0.553], ["2019-08-30", 0.553], ["2019-08-30", 0.553], ["2019-08-30", 0.554], ["2019-08-31", 0.546], ["2019-09-02", 0.546], ["2019-09-03", 0.553], ["2019-09-07", 0.557], ["2019-09-08", 0.556], ["2019-09-09", 0.556], ["2019-09-16", 0.553], ["2019-09-17", 0.552], ["2019-09-21", 0.55], ["2019-09-26", 0.554], ["2019-09-26", 0.554], ["2019-09-29", 0.554], ["2019-09-29", 0.555], ["2019-09-29", 0.555], ["2019-10-02", 0.563], ["2019-10-03", 0.569], ["2019-10-03", 0.569], ["2019-10-04", 0.56], ["2019-10-07", 0.56], ["2019-10-07", 0.558], ["2019-10-07", 0.564], ["2019-10-09", 0.564], ["2019-10-10", 0.562], ["2019-10-10", 0.561], ["2019-10-10", 0.561], ["2019-10-10", 0.56], ["2019-10-10", 0.56], ["2019-10-10", 0.561], ["2019-10-11", 0.566], ["2019-10-11", 0.566], ["2019-10-11", 0.567]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3026/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Tom Brady is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the tenth-oldest quarterback ever to play in the league.
The Patriots have recently extended Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and some have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is here.
Therefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?
This question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season. | true | 2019-10-11 | Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-17 | 2019-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-14", 0.2], ["2019-08-14", 0.4], ["2019-08-14", 0.467], ["2019-08-14", 0.45], ["2019-08-14", 0.45], ["2019-08-14", 0.425], ["2019-08-14", 0.425], ["2019-08-14", 0.397], ["2019-08-14", 0.369], ["2019-08-14", 0.369], ["2019-08-14", 0.327], ["2019-08-14", 0.33], ["2019-08-14", 0.319], ["2019-08-14", 0.288], ["2019-08-14", 0.288], ["2019-08-14", 0.237], ["2019-08-14", 0.237], ["2019-08-14", 0.238], ["2019-08-14", 0.235], ["2019-08-14", 0.235], ["2019-08-14", 0.232], ["2019-08-14", 0.215], ["2019-08-14", 0.248], ["2019-08-14", 0.248], ["2019-08-14", 0.222], ["2019-08-14", 0.222], ["2019-08-14", 0.214], ["2019-08-15", 0.21], ["2019-08-15", 0.209], ["2019-08-15", 0.218], ["2019-08-15", 0.243], ["2019-08-15", 0.232], ["2019-08-15", 0.229], ["2019-08-15", 0.224], ["2019-08-15", 0.224], ["2019-08-15", 0.225], ["2019-08-15", 0.222], ["2019-08-15", 0.222], ["2019-08-15", 0.219], ["2019-08-15", 0.218], ["2019-08-15", 0.218], ["2019-08-15", 0.205], ["2019-08-15", 0.205], ["2019-08-15", 0.196], ["2019-08-15", 0.196], ["2019-08-15", 0.188], ["2019-08-15", 0.177], ["2019-08-15", 0.173], ["2019-08-15", 0.172], ["2019-08-15", 0.165], ["2019-08-15", 0.165], ["2019-08-15", 0.166], ["2019-08-15", 0.165], ["2019-08-15", 0.165]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3029/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | The Hong Kong protesters have recently started occupying Hong Kong Intl. Airport, disrupting many flights.
According to the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's website, on the 12th of August 2019, 118 of 522 departing flights (23%) had been cancelled. As of writing, for the 13th of August, 218 of 511 departing flights were cancelled (43%). For the 14th of August, 56 of 510 departing flights were already cancelled (11%).
Question: On the 16th of August, will the Hong Kong Intl. Airport's website list >= 10% of departing flights as "Cancelled"?
Resolution:
The percentages are to be computed from the "Status" column of the linked page for the relevant day (the website is on HK time), counting number of lines with "Cancelled", and the total number of lines.
Sadly the website only lists flights from the previous day onward, so the numbers will have to be checked on the 17th at the latest.
Failure to retrieve the numbers for any reason resolves ambiguous.
Less than 250 departing flights being scheduled for the 16th resolves ambiguous. | true | 2019-08-15 | [Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-08-28 | 2019-08-13 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-16", 0.6], ["2019-08-16", 0.69], ["2019-08-16", 0.68], ["2019-08-16", 0.704], ["2019-08-16", 0.722], ["2019-08-16", 0.715], ["2019-08-16", 0.727], ["2019-08-16", 0.736], ["2019-08-16", 0.743], ["2019-08-16", 0.743], ["2019-08-17", 0.765], ["2019-08-17", 0.775], ["2019-08-17", 0.773], ["2019-08-17", 0.773], ["2019-08-17", 0.768], ["2019-08-17", 0.763], ["2019-08-18", 0.763], ["2019-08-18", 0.776], ["2019-08-18", 0.775], ["2019-08-19", 0.775], ["2019-08-19", 0.776], ["2019-08-21", 0.777], ["2019-08-21", 0.777], ["2019-08-22", 0.774], ["2019-08-23", 0.767], ["2019-08-23", 0.767], ["2019-08-23", 0.767], ["2019-08-24", 0.77], ["2019-08-24", 0.77], ["2019-08-24", 0.777], ["2019-08-24", 0.778], ["2019-08-24", 0.784], ["2019-08-24", 0.795], ["2019-08-25", 0.799], ["2019-08-25", 0.805], ["2019-08-25", 0.811], ["2019-08-25", 0.816], ["2019-08-26", 0.821], ["2019-08-26", 0.821], ["2019-08-26", 0.824], ["2019-08-26", 0.824], ["2019-08-27", 0.828], ["2019-08-27", 0.83], ["2019-08-27", 0.832], ["2019-08-27", 0.833]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3030/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Kirsten Gillibrand, junior United States Senator for New York and former New York congresswoman, launched her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. She has a "soaring national profile in the U.S. Senate" (Politico) and a particular appeal to college-educated women, but has struggled to break 1% in polling. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.
By 28 April 2020, when New York's primary is expected to take place, most of the Democratic primary electorate will have already voted and the party convention will be just two-and-a-half months away.
Will Kirsten Gillibrand have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in New York's primary election?
This resolves positive if before the 2020 New York Democratic primary, Kirsten Gillibrand has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 New York Democratic primary is currently expected for Tuesday, April 28, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports. | true | 2020-04-27 | Will Kirsten Gillibrand drop out before the New York primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-03-19 | 2019-08-17 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-19", 0.17], ["2019-08-21", 0.761], ["2019-08-22", 0.724], ["2019-08-23", 0.726], ["2019-08-25", 0.711], ["2019-08-26", 0.719], ["2019-08-28", 0.72], ["2019-08-29", 0.739], ["2019-08-31", 0.731], ["2019-08-31", 0.729], ["2019-09-03", 0.732], ["2019-09-04", 0.708], ["2019-09-05", 0.707], ["2019-09-07", 0.707], ["2019-09-10", 0.703], ["2019-09-13", 0.717], ["2019-09-19", 0.72], ["2019-09-20", 0.72], ["2019-09-22", 0.716], ["2019-09-24", 0.716], ["2019-09-25", 0.716], ["2019-09-27", 0.71], ["2019-09-28", 0.714], ["2019-10-03", 0.716], ["2019-10-09", 0.715], ["2019-10-10", 0.715], ["2019-10-11", 0.71], ["2019-10-15", 0.703], ["2019-10-17", 0.7], ["2019-10-18", 0.7], ["2019-10-20", 0.616], ["2019-10-21", 0.602], ["2019-10-22", 0.595], ["2019-10-24", 0.59], ["2019-10-26", 0.583], ["2019-10-30", 0.579], ["2019-10-31", 0.579], ["2019-11-02", 0.568], ["2019-11-08", 0.568], ["2019-11-16", 0.556], ["2019-11-18", 0.556], ["2019-11-21", 0.556], ["2019-11-21", 0.56], ["2019-11-30", 0.55], ["2019-11-30", 0.55], ["2019-12-05", 0.553], ["2019-12-12", 0.553], ["2019-12-14", 0.545], ["2019-12-17", 0.549], ["2019-12-18", 0.539], ["2019-12-19", 0.539], ["2019-12-21", 0.54], ["2019-12-22", 0.538], ["2019-12-24", 0.544], ["2019-12-26", 0.544], ["2019-12-27", 0.544], ["2019-12-29", 0.545], ["2019-12-31", 0.544], ["2019-12-31", 0.536], ["2020-01-02", 0.53], ["2020-01-04", 0.54], ["2020-01-06", 0.546], ["2020-01-07", 0.552], ["2020-01-09", 0.551], ["2020-01-10", 0.552], ["2020-01-13", 0.548], ["2020-01-15", 0.548], ["2020-01-17", 0.548], ["2020-01-20", 0.547], ["2020-01-22", 0.546], ["2020-01-23", 0.541], ["2020-01-24", 0.541], ["2020-01-30", 0.542], ["2020-02-04", 0.542], ["2020-02-06", 0.542], ["2020-02-08", 0.54], ["2020-02-11", 0.541], ["2020-02-12", 0.547], ["2020-02-15", 0.547], ["2020-02-15", 0.553], ["2020-02-17", 0.553], ["2020-02-19", 0.545], ["2020-02-20", 0.546], ["2020-02-22", 0.543], ["2020-02-24", 0.542], ["2020-02-24", 0.542], ["2020-02-26", 0.542], ["2020-02-27", 0.542], ["2020-02-29", 0.543], ["2020-03-01", 0.543], ["2020-03-04", 0.543], ["2020-03-05", 0.534], ["2020-03-07", 0.519], ["2020-03-08", 0.51], ["2020-03-10", 0.504], ["2020-03-11", 0.503], ["2020-03-12", 0.502], ["2020-03-14", 0.491], ["2020-03-15", 0.489], ["2020-03-17", 0.478], ["2020-03-18", 0.476]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3035/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Hawaii Congresswoman Tusli Gabbard, a former Honolulu city councilor and Hawaii state representative, declared her Democratic presidential primary candidacy early in 2019. Though once considered a rising star by the party establishment, she has since become a pariah for what she sees as "stand[ing] strong against [...] neolibs and neocons dragging us from one regime change war to the next"; others in the party have seen her as a supporters of authoritarians abroad.
As of mid-August 2019, Gabbard stands at about 1% in the polling averages. It is still early, but the field is crowded and many other strong candidates have a path to the nomination.
Hawaii's primary will be well along in the voting, on April 4, 2020, about three months before the party convention.
Will Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the Presidential race before voting opens in Hawaii's primary election?
This resolves positive if before the 2020 Hawaii Democratic primary, Tulsi Gabbard has claimed to no longer intend to participate in as a candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. The 2020 Hawaii primary is currently scheduled for April 4, 2020, but this could change. Resolution should be supported by credible news reports. | true | 2020-04-03 | Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-08-29 | 2019-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-22", 0.675], ["2019-08-22", 0.675], ["2019-08-22", 0.62], ["2019-08-22", 0.615], ["2019-08-22", 0.597], ["2019-08-22", 0.59], ["2019-08-22", 0.59], ["2019-08-22", 0.583], ["2019-08-22", 0.611], ["2019-08-22", 0.611], ["2019-08-22", 0.602], ["2019-08-22", 0.587], ["2019-08-22", 0.587], ["2019-08-22", 0.578], ["2019-08-22", 0.578], ["2019-08-22", 0.602], ["2019-08-22", 0.602], ["2019-08-23", 0.587], ["2019-08-23", 0.578], ["2019-08-23", 0.565], ["2019-08-23", 0.56], ["2019-08-23", 0.565], ["2019-08-23", 0.565], ["2019-08-23", 0.548], ["2019-08-23", 0.548], ["2019-08-23", 0.551], ["2019-08-23", 0.549], ["2019-08-23", 0.551], ["2019-08-23", 0.548], ["2019-08-23", 0.544], ["2019-08-23", 0.55], ["2019-08-23", 0.55], ["2019-08-23", 0.55], ["2019-08-24", 0.55], ["2019-08-24", 0.554], ["2019-08-24", 0.556], ["2019-08-25", 0.551], ["2019-08-25", 0.551], ["2019-08-25", 0.557], ["2019-08-25", 0.557], ["2019-08-25", 0.559], ["2019-08-25", 0.564], ["2019-08-26", 0.568], ["2019-08-26", 0.573], ["2019-08-26", 0.576], ["2019-08-26", 0.577], ["2019-08-26", 0.577], ["2019-08-26", 0.578], ["2019-08-26", 0.578], ["2019-08-26", 0.58], ["2019-08-26", 0.593], ["2019-08-26", 0.59], ["2019-08-26", 0.599], ["2019-08-26", 0.599], ["2019-08-26", 0.586], ["2019-08-26", 0.586], ["2019-08-26", 0.586], ["2019-08-26", 0.578], ["2019-08-26", 0.552], ["2019-08-26", 0.552], ["2019-08-26", 0.549], ["2019-08-26", 0.54], ["2019-08-27", 0.528], ["2019-08-27", 0.519], ["2019-08-27", 0.516], ["2019-08-27", 0.518], ["2019-08-27", 0.514], ["2019-08-27", 0.512], ["2019-08-27", 0.512], ["2019-08-27", 0.506], ["2019-08-27", 0.494], ["2019-08-27", 0.49], ["2019-08-27", 0.49], ["2019-08-27", 0.484], ["2019-08-27", 0.484], ["2019-08-27", 0.486], ["2019-08-27", 0.485], ["2019-08-27", 0.483], ["2019-08-27", 0.49], ["2019-08-28", 0.49], ["2019-08-28", 0.493], ["2019-08-28", 0.495], ["2019-08-28", 0.491], ["2019-08-28", 0.493], ["2019-08-28", 0.479], ["2019-08-28", 0.475], ["2019-08-28", 0.479], ["2019-08-28", 0.473], ["2019-08-28", 0.467], ["2019-08-28", 0.465], ["2019-08-28", 0.461], ["2019-08-28", 0.45], ["2019-08-28", 0.448], ["2019-08-28", 0.442], ["2019-08-28", 0.444], ["2019-08-29", 0.442], ["2019-08-29", 0.429], ["2019-08-29", 0.42], ["2019-08-29", 0.42], ["2019-08-29", 0.401], ["2019-08-29", 0.399]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3038/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On the 20th of August 2019, the PM of Italy resigned (AFP).
Now a new coalition must be formed, to allow the President of Italy to name a new Prime Minister.
Question: Will the President of Italy fail to name a new Prime Minister before the end of August 2019?
Resolution shall be by credible media report. The end of August is 2019-08-31 23:59:59, Rome time.
In case of negative resolution, this will retroactively close 1 hour before the official announcement. | true | 2019-08-31 | [Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-05 | 2019-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2019-08-25", 0.84], ["2019-08-25", 0.855], ["2019-08-25", 0.855], ["2019-08-25", 0.77], ["2019-08-25", 0.742], ["2019-08-25", 0.738], ["2019-08-25", 0.74], ["2019-08-25", 0.734], ["2019-08-26", 0.734], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-26", 0.738], ["2019-08-26", 0.746], ["2019-08-27", 0.746], ["2019-08-27", 0.738], ["2019-08-27", 0.729], ["2019-08-27", 0.729], ["2019-08-27", 0.702], ["2019-08-27", 0.724], ["2019-08-27", 0.724], ["2019-08-27", 0.725], ["2019-08-28", 0.719], ["2019-08-28", 0.709], ["2019-08-28", 0.709], ["2019-08-29", 0.709], ["2019-08-29", 0.714], ["2019-08-29", 0.674], ["2019-08-29", 0.669], ["2019-08-29", 0.669], ["2019-08-29", 0.67], ["2019-08-29", 0.67], ["2019-08-29", 0.678], ["2019-08-30", 0.675], ["2019-08-30", 0.675], ["2019-08-31", 0.68], ["2019-08-31", 0.682], ["2019-09-01", 0.683], ["2019-09-02", 0.683], ["2019-09-02", 0.681], ["2019-09-02", 0.681], ["2019-09-03", 0.683], ["2019-09-03", 0.682], ["2019-09-04", 0.682], ["2019-09-04", 0.683], ["2019-09-04", 0.684], ["2019-09-04", 0.684], ["2019-09-04", 0.679], ["2019-09-04", 0.679], ["2019-09-04", 0.678], ["2019-09-04", 0.677], ["2019-09-04", 0.676], ["2019-09-04", 0.676], ["2019-09-04", 0.676], ["2019-09-04", 0.666], ["2019-09-04", 0.664], ["2019-09-05", 0.664], ["2019-09-05", 0.659], ["2019-09-05", 0.654], ["2019-09-05", 0.654], ["2019-09-05", 0.658], ["2019-09-05", 0.661], ["2019-09-05", 0.661], ["2019-09-05", 0.66], ["2019-09-05", 0.658]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3041/ | Chandrayaan-2 is India's second lunar exploration mission after Chandrayaan-1. Developed by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the mission was launched from the second launch pad at Satish Dhawan Space Centre on 22 July 2019 at 2.43 PM IST (09:13 UTC) to the Moon by a Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mark III (GSLV Mk III). It consists of a lunar orbiter, a lander, and a lunar rover named Pragyan, all of which were developed in India. The main scientific objective is to map the location and abundance of lunar water.
The lander and the rover will land on the near side of the Moon, in the south polar region at a latitude of about 70° south on 7 September 2019.
The Israeli lander was not successful, and crashed to the lunar surface after a telemetry error. Will the Chandrayaan-2 succeed?
Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon on any day in September 2019? | Science & Tech | The question resolves positively if the lander is sufficiently intact upon landing so that the carried rover, the Pragyan rover, has functioning control and motor dynamics for at least 1 hour after impact. | true | 2019-09-05 | Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-01 | 2019-08-30 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-01", 0.5], ["2019-09-02", 0.661], ["2019-09-02", 0.588], ["2019-09-02", 0.584], ["2019-09-02", 0.569], ["2019-09-02", 0.569], ["2019-09-02", 0.518], ["2019-09-03", 0.518], ["2019-09-03", 0.517], ["2019-09-03", 0.511], ["2019-09-03", 0.517], ["2019-09-03", 0.506], ["2019-09-03", 0.507], ["2019-09-04", 0.5], ["2019-09-04", 0.5], ["2019-09-04", 0.477], ["2019-09-04", 0.452], ["2019-09-04", 0.437], ["2019-09-04", 0.442], ["2019-09-04", 0.438], ["2019-09-05", 0.438], ["2019-09-05", 0.434], ["2019-09-05", 0.425], ["2019-09-05", 0.419], ["2019-09-05", 0.41], ["2019-09-05", 0.411], ["2019-09-06", 0.408], ["2019-09-06", 0.407], ["2019-09-06", 0.403], ["2019-09-07", 0.403], ["2019-09-08", 0.402], ["2019-09-08", 0.402], ["2019-09-08", 0.4], ["2019-09-09", 0.399], ["2019-09-09", 0.399], ["2019-09-10", 0.4], ["2019-09-10", 0.395], ["2019-09-10", 0.395], ["2019-09-10", 0.395], ["2019-09-11", 0.394], ["2019-09-12", 0.392], ["2019-09-12", 0.392], ["2019-09-13", 0.39], ["2019-09-13", 0.389], ["2019-09-14", 0.389], ["2019-09-14", 0.388], ["2019-09-14", 0.388], ["2019-09-15", 0.382], ["2019-09-15", 0.382], ["2019-09-15", 0.382], ["2019-09-16", 0.379], ["2019-09-16", 0.377], ["2019-09-17", 0.375], ["2019-09-17", 0.371], ["2019-09-17", 0.366], ["2019-09-17", 0.365], ["2019-09-17", 0.364], ["2019-09-18", 0.36], ["2019-09-18", 0.36], ["2019-09-18", 0.359], ["2019-09-18", 0.353], ["2019-09-19", 0.35], ["2019-09-19", 0.35], ["2019-09-20", 0.35], ["2019-09-20", 0.348], ["2019-09-21", 0.348], ["2019-09-21", 0.347], ["2019-09-21", 0.347], ["2019-09-21", 0.346], ["2019-09-21", 0.344], ["2019-09-21", 0.343], ["2019-09-22", 0.343], ["2019-09-22", 0.337], ["2019-09-22", 0.338], ["2019-09-23", 0.333], ["2019-09-23", 0.332], ["2019-09-23", 0.33], ["2019-09-23", 0.328], ["2019-09-24", 0.324], ["2019-09-24", 0.323], ["2019-09-24", 0.318], ["2019-09-25", 0.318], ["2019-09-25", 0.318], ["2019-09-25", 0.316], ["2019-09-26", 0.315], ["2019-09-26", 0.314], ["2019-09-27", 0.314], ["2019-09-27", 0.313], ["2019-09-27", 0.309], ["2019-09-28", 0.309], ["2019-09-28", 0.307], ["2019-09-28", 0.308], ["2019-09-29", 0.306], ["2019-09-29", 0.29], ["2019-09-29", 0.273], ["2019-09-30", 0.258], ["2019-09-30", 0.247], ["2019-09-30", 0.236], ["2019-09-30", 0.235], ["2019-09-30", 0.232], ["2019-09-30", 0.226]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3057/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | As tenthkrige wrote in their question:
Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia)."
Since then the Beijing government has hardened their rhetoric. Chinese state owned media suggested military intervention. There have been violent clashes of protesters with the police and pro-Beijing mobsters. Many protesters were arrested, and including some of the protest leaders. There were many speculations [1] [2] that the Beijing government will not allow the protests to last until the 70th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party that will be celebrated on the 1st of October. This was also suggested by Roundtable lawmaker "Michael Tien Puk-sun who said that according to his sources, the central government has set early September as the "deadline," to calm the situation in Hong Kong"
Again as tenthkrige wrote in their question:
This article(fr) identifies three entities under direct Chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:
The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission. The People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationed in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government. The Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force. Question: Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong before October 1st 2019?
Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?
Positive resolution will be by either:
The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened. A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened. Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence). Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.
The question resolves negatively if the evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in September are not found before the end of 7th of October, 2019.
Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events."
This is a copy of this question but now it is about the intervention in September. It was copied with tenthkrige's permission. | true | 2019-09-30 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-09-15 | 2019-09-04 | ["https://twitter.com/rogerfederer"] | binary | [["2019-09-08", 0.655], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.587], ["2019-09-08", 0.592], ["2019-09-09", 0.592], ["2019-09-09", 0.516], ["2019-09-15", 0.516], ["2019-09-19", 0.478], ["2019-09-22", 0.48], ["2019-09-23", 0.478], ["2019-09-27", 0.489], ["2019-09-29", 0.455], ["2019-10-01", 0.455], ["2019-10-01", 0.458], ["2019-10-02", 0.458], ["2019-10-13", 0.465], ["2019-10-15", 0.468], ["2019-10-17", 0.468], ["2019-10-17", 0.47], ["2019-10-17", 0.469], ["2019-10-24", 0.469], ["2019-10-25", 0.471], ["2019-10-26", 0.472], ["2019-10-29", 0.487], ["2019-10-30", 0.487], ["2019-10-31", 0.487], ["2019-11-12", 0.502], ["2019-11-17", 0.502], ["2019-11-17", 0.5], ["2019-11-18", 0.503], ["2019-11-20", 0.503], ["2019-11-20", 0.503], ["2019-11-21", 0.521], ["2019-12-07", 0.518], ["2019-12-16", 0.518], ["2019-12-17", 0.515], ["2019-12-23", 0.515], ["2019-12-27", 0.517], ["2020-01-01", 0.517], ["2020-01-01", 0.516], ["2020-01-01", 0.516], ["2020-01-01", 0.515], ["2020-01-02", 0.517], ["2020-01-03", 0.517], ["2020-01-03", 0.518], ["2020-01-03", 0.525], ["2020-01-03", 0.525], ["2020-01-03", 0.53], ["2020-01-03", 0.529], ["2020-01-04", 0.529], ["2020-01-05", 0.527], ["2020-01-05", 0.527], ["2020-01-08", 0.527], ["2020-01-09", 0.527], ["2020-01-12", 0.526], ["2020-01-12", 0.535], ["2020-01-12", 0.537], ["2020-01-12", 0.537], ["2020-01-13", 0.532], ["2020-01-13", 0.532], ["2020-01-13", 0.532], ["2020-01-14", 0.535], ["2020-01-14", 0.536], ["2020-01-14", 0.536], ["2020-01-14", 0.536], ["2020-01-14", 0.536], ["2020-01-16", 0.536], ["2020-01-18", 0.539], ["2020-01-18", 0.538], ["2020-01-18", 0.538], ["2020-01-18", 0.535], ["2020-01-18", 0.535], ["2020-01-18", 0.535], ["2020-01-18", 0.532], ["2020-01-18", 0.532]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3071/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The Grand Slam tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.
Roger Federer has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, according to the tennis website Tennis-x.
Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?
Question resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam. | true | 2020-01-19 | Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-22 | 2019-09-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-07", 0.33], ["2019-09-07", 0.36], ["2019-09-07", 0.338], ["2019-09-07", 0.45], ["2019-09-07", 0.45], ["2019-09-08", 0.45], ["2019-09-08", 0.453], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.444], ["2019-09-08", 0.448], ["2019-09-08", 0.455], ["2019-09-08", 0.455], ["2019-09-08", 0.446], ["2019-09-09", 0.446], ["2019-09-09", 0.444], ["2019-09-09", 0.444], ["2019-09-09", 0.44], ["2019-09-09", 0.44], ["2019-09-09", 0.438], ["2019-09-10", 0.432], ["2019-09-10", 0.429], ["2019-09-10", 0.431], ["2019-09-12", 0.431], ["2019-09-13", 0.43], ["2019-09-14", 0.426], ["2019-09-15", 0.426], ["2019-09-15", 0.406], ["2019-09-15", 0.404]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3072/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Wikipedia:
Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Tunisia on 15 September 2019. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be no later than 3 November.
Businessman and Politician Nabil Karoui led the last legal poll in July 2019 (Wikipedia list of polls), but:
On July 8, 2019, Karoui and his brother Ghazi were charged with money laundering around the 2016 allegations. Their assets were frozen and both were forbidden from leaving the country. He was arrested on August 23 following a warrant by the Tunis Court of Appeal.
However:
Despite Karoui's previous arrest, his candidacy was allowed to remain in place, as he has not yet been sentenced by the courts.
Final results are usually published by the Instance supérieure indépendante pour les élections (ISIE, Independent High Authority for Elections) within a month (example for 2014) of the first round, and they by definition have to be published before the second round.
Question: Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election, according to Tunisia's ISIE.
Resolution details:
"Win the popular vote" here means getting strictly more ballots than any other running candidate.
If Karoui is prevented from participating in the first round of the election, this resolves negative.
If the first round does not occur or is postponed beyond September, this resolves ambiguous.
If the final results are not published by the ISIE before the end of October 2019, this resolves ambiguous. | true | 2019-09-15 | Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-11-07 | 2019-09-08 | [] | binary | [["2019-09-11", 0.5], ["2019-09-11", 0.5], ["2019-09-11", 0.42], ["2019-09-12", 0.465], ["2019-09-12", 0.438], ["2019-09-12", 0.398], ["2019-09-12", 0.398], ["2019-09-12", 0.439], ["2019-09-12", 0.424], ["2019-09-13", 0.431], ["2019-09-14", 0.431], ["2019-09-16", 0.402], ["2019-09-17", 0.406], ["2019-09-18", 0.406], ["2019-09-18", 0.385], ["2019-09-19", 0.374], ["2019-09-21", 0.365], ["2019-09-22", 0.368], ["2019-09-23", 0.368], ["2019-09-25", 0.375], ["2019-09-27", 0.372], ["2019-09-30", 0.366], ["2019-10-02", 0.364], ["2019-10-02", 0.363], ["2019-10-09", 0.363], ["2019-10-12", 0.36], ["2019-10-13", 0.361], ["2019-10-14", 0.358], ["2019-10-17", 0.36], ["2019-10-20", 0.36], ["2019-10-21", 0.362], ["2019-10-21", 0.357], ["2019-10-21", 0.357], ["2019-10-23", 0.357], ["2019-10-23", 0.372], ["2019-10-26", 0.374], ["2019-10-26", 0.364], ["2019-10-28", 0.364], ["2019-10-29", 0.368], ["2019-10-29", 0.37], ["2019-10-29", 0.37]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3083/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | After Deepmind's successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana, the AI lab started to test AlphaStar against players online. In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more APM restrictions.
Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed; however, their methodology of tracking and finding AlphaStar games might be unreliable. How likely do you think it is that AlphaStar will win a supermajority of its games against pros?
By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?
We'll evaluate the question when DeepMind releases the results of the experiment.
This question will resolve positively if AlphaStar wins against Grandmaster level players more than 80% of the time.
This question will resolve ambiguously if AlphaStar plays less than ten games against Grandmaster level players.
We'll only evaluate games played as part of the Blizzard online experiment. | true | 2019-10-31 | By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players? | metaculus | 0 |
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The question here is simple. Will the presidential candidate who receives the most support in the Iowa Democratic caucuses end up receiving the party's nomination for the presidency?
The question will resolve positive if the presidential nominee at the convention won the Iowa caucuses and negative if he or she did not. The question resolves ambiguous if the caucuses or the convention fail to occur.
The winner of the Iowa caucuses will be determined to be the candidate who receives the largest percentage of the vote, irrespective of the distribution of delegates. The party's nominee will be determined to be the person nominated at the convention, even if that person is subsequently replaced before the general election.
Historical caucus data is available here. Current Iowa polling data (showing a relatively small lead for Joe Biden) is here. | true | 2019-12-22 | Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination? | metaculus | 0 |
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One of the key scenario paths where Britain leaves the EU before Oct. 31st is if one of the other 27 EU countries vetos an extension. At previous Brexit deadlines EU member states agreed to extend the process; however, it seems there's a notable frustration and a desire to 'get it over with'. If an EU country does veto a motion for extension, then no-deal Brexit could become the default.
Will an EU country veto an extension of the Brexit deliberation period on or before Oct 31st 2019?
This question will resolve positively if an extension is requested and a country (other than the U.K.) vetoes a motion to move the deadline for the U.K. leaving the European Union to a date later than Oct. 31st, 2019. The question resolves negatively if an extension is requested and not vetoed. It resolves ambiguous if an extension is not requested. | true | 2019-10-31 | Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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Question: Will the JPL Mars Helicopeter Scout mounted on the Mars 2020 rover send back at least one picture taken while flying on Mars, conditional on a flight being attempted?
Resolution details:
The picture must be taken while the helicopter is flying under its own power on Mars.
The picture must make it back to earth, and be published by NASA.
This resolves negative if a flight is attempted, but no such picture is obtained.
This resolves ambiguous if no relevant flight is attempted before 2022. | true | 2020-07-16 | Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly? | metaculus | 1 |
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The Oregon Psilocybin Society is gathering the 112,020 signatures necessary to get the Oregon Psilocybin Program Initiative on the ballot in Oregon as an initiated constitutional amendment on November 3, 2020.
Will Oregon vote to legalize the medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?
This question resolves positively if the Oregon Psilocybin Program Initiative or a similar measure is placed on the Oregon ballot in the 2020 general election and passes. If no measure is placed on the Oregon ballot and the medical use of Psilocybin in Oregon is not legalized, the question resolves negatively. | true | 2020-10-30 | Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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Before the House could vote on the impeachment resolutions, Nixon made public on August 5, 1974 a transcript of one of the additional conversations, known as the "Smoking Gun Tape", which made clear his complicity in the cover-up. With his political support completely eroded, Nixon resigned from office on August 9, 1974.
On September 24, 2019, an impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump was initiated, when Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, announced the beginning of a formal impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump. The inquiry was announced in the wake of an anonymous whistleblower report which alleged a widespread abuse of power, and then coverup, by Donald Trump during his presidency.
If the investigation proceeds, and produces enough evidence to warrant drawing up and/or voting on articles of impeachment, there might be some scenarios under which Trump may be expected to resign. According to an article by The Week:
Our second option is a variant of the Nixon play: With an impeachment vote pending or accomplished (in Nixon's case, articles were approved in committee but not yet the full House), Trump could resign. As it would allow him to endlessly deny wrongdoing and claim political persecution until the day he dies, this option may be appealing to the president.
Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?
This question resolves positively if Donald Trump himself, the Financial Times or the New York Times announces that Donald Trump is resigning the office of U.S. president before the inauguration of the candidate that wins the 2020 presidential election (which is currently scheduled for January 20, 2021).
This question resolves negatively if Donald Trump does not resign and remains president throughout his first term. Moreover, this question resolves negatively if Donald Trump does not resign but for any reason is no longer president before the next scheduled inauguration date (e.g. if he's removed from office, passes away, etc.) | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term? | metaculus | 0 |
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The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee; these normally occur eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The Committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.
As of 18 September 2019 the target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75–2.00%. The federal funds target rate has historically been issued as either a percentage (e.g. 3.0%) or a range (e.g. 2.00% – 2.25%).
You can view the history of Federal Open Market Committee actions here. You can view a graph of the history of the federal funds target rate here.
This question asks: Before January 1 2021, will the FOMC announce that the federal funds target rate is equal to or less than 0%, or, if a target range is given, will the lower bound of that target range be equal to or less than 0%?
Resolution should cite a press release or other document from the Federal Reserve, or credible media reports in the financial press. | true | 2020-03-01 | Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
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At a minimum, it would be a substantial break with historical precedent if the House impeached the President, referred articles of impeachment to the Senate, and yet the Senate declined to vote one way or the other on the referral.
This question will resolve positively if, before the end of Trump's first term, articles of impeachment are referred by the House and are then subjected to a vote by the full Senate. It will resolve negatively if, by the end of Trump's first term he has been impeached by the House but no such vote by the Senate has been held. It will resolve ambiguously if Trump is not impeached by the House by the end of his first term, or if Trump leaves office before any impeachment by the House.
If more than one set of articles of impeachment are referred to the Senate at different times, only the first referral will be considered for the purposes of this question. | true | 2019-11-15 | If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote? | metaculus | 1 |
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In just one to two months, SpaceX will launch the Starship Mk1 up to a height of approximately 65,000 feet (20 kilometers) before returning to Earth and landing.
So, given a 2x time dilation, we'll ask:
by 00:00:01 UTC February 1, 2020, will SpaceX launch a Starship test vehicle?
By launch we specify that the vehicle attains a height of at least 100 m. The vehicle must be made predominantly of stainless steel and be at least 40m in height. It need not land successfully (though we could launch a short-fuse question to that as the launch gets closer.). Closes retroactively 1 week prior to launch, should one occur. | true | 2020-01-30 | Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will Joe Biden be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for the President of the United States?
This question resolves positively if the Democratic Party officially recognizes (via press release, or any public statement made by official spokespeople or leadership figures of the Democratic Party) that Joe Biden is the Nominee of their party for the office of President of the United States in the 2020 election cycle.
Biden need not be the Democratic Party Candidate on the date of the Presidential Election for this question to resolve positively; he merely needs to become the official Democratic Party Nominee at some point. A nomination for the office of Vice President shall not suffice for a positive resolution. | true | 2020-03-12 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election? | metaculus | 1 |
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Aramco is considering an initial public offering in the near future, which may involve first listing on the Saudi Stock exchange.
This question resolves positively if Saudi Arabian Oil Company's (Aramco's) stock are listed on any stock exchange before 23:59:59 GMT. | true | 2019-11-21 | Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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RCEP is a proposed trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (RCEP, ASEAN). Negotiators have worked on a trade deal for several years, and now hope to have an agreement by the end of the year (TheHinduBusinessLine, StraitsTimes). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "yes" resolution.
Resolves positive if by 00:00:01 UTC November 30, 2019, ASEAN representatives or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an RCEP participating country (any one of 16 countries) makes an announcement that the RCEP negotiations have concluded, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours. | true | 2019-11-15 | Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded? | metaculus | 0 |
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The party is, at the time of writing, less than one year old (although can be thought of as the spiritual successor to the UK Independence Party, of which Farage was previously the figurehead). It won the most votes in the UK at the recent European elections - but can that success transfer into a general election where UKIP only ever won one seat? Can the party survive in a post-Brexit political landscape (if such a thing ever comes to pass)? Or will Farage himself finally win a seat at the eighth time of asking?
Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?
This question resolves positively if the Brexit Party wins one or more seats at the next UK General Election, as reported by the BBC and negatively otherwise. By-elections and defections do not count.
This question should close two weeks before the date of the election, which will be, at the latest, 05/05/2022 but may well be much earlier. | true | 2022-05-04 | Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Many psychedelic drugs are illegal worldwide under the UN conventions, occasionally excepting use in a religious or research context. Despite these controls, recreational use of psychedelics is common, with Krebs and Johansen, 2013 estimating that there are over 30 million psychedelic users in the United States.
This year, a group of private donors has given $17 million to start the Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins Medicine, to start, what is claimed to be the first such research center in the U.S. and the largest research center of its kind in the world (John Hopkins, 2019).
The corporate side has also taken interest in psychedelics. In March, pharmaceutical and consumer goods firm Johnson & Johnson received FDA approval for a new nasal spray using esketamine, a derivative of ketamine, to help treat patients suffering from depression. Similarly, Atai Life Sciences has reportedly raised $25 million to finance research on the effects of psychedelics and other drugs on depression and other mental illnesses.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M, in 2019 USD?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if credible news reports or credible financial reports indicate that the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M. Psychedelics here include:
Serotonergic psychedelics, such as psilocybin, psilocin and LSD;
Empathogens, such as MDMA;
Dissociatives, such as ketamine.
Note that this list excludes cannabinoids. U.S. investment here is taken to mean investment (by any party) in companies registered in the U.S., research organisations registered in the U.S. Note: admins should take care to avoid double counting in case U.S., companies receive funding to subsequently fund research by U.S. research organisations. | true | 2020-11-01 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-05 | 2019-10-27 | [] | binary | [["2019-10-30", 0.56], ["2019-10-31", 0.226], ["2019-11-02", 0.24], ["2019-11-04", 0.304], ["2019-11-05", 0.323], ["2019-11-07", 0.33], ["2019-11-09", 0.327], ["2019-11-11", 0.321], ["2019-11-15", 0.321], ["2019-12-04", 0.322], ["2019-12-26", 0.323], ["2019-12-28", 0.325], ["2019-12-30", 0.327], ["2020-01-01", 0.348], ["2020-01-03", 0.349], ["2020-01-12", 0.347], ["2020-01-15", 0.346], ["2020-01-22", 0.345], ["2020-01-24", 0.345], ["2020-01-30", 0.342], ["2020-02-01", 0.34], ["2020-02-03", 0.34], ["2020-02-06", 0.34], ["2020-02-11", 0.339], ["2020-02-13", 0.336], ["2020-02-16", 0.336], ["2020-02-17", 0.334], ["2020-02-21", 0.33], ["2020-02-22", 0.33], ["2020-02-26", 0.329], ["2020-03-01", 0.332], ["2020-03-01", 0.331], ["2020-03-05", 0.33], ["2020-03-05", 0.329], ["2020-03-08", 0.329], ["2020-03-11", 0.326], ["2020-03-14", 0.323], ["2020-03-17", 0.323], ["2020-03-20", 0.323], ["2020-03-22", 0.323], ["2020-03-24", 0.319], ["2020-03-27", 0.319], ["2020-03-29", 0.317], ["2020-03-31", 0.318], ["2020-04-02", 0.318], ["2020-04-03", 0.318], ["2020-04-05", 0.318], ["2020-04-09", 0.318], ["2020-04-13", 0.317], ["2020-04-17", 0.315], ["2020-04-17", 0.315], ["2020-04-22", 0.316], ["2020-04-24", 0.314], ["2020-04-27", 0.314], ["2020-04-28", 0.312], ["2020-05-01", 0.311], ["2020-05-03", 0.311], ["2020-05-09", 0.31], ["2020-05-10", 0.308], ["2020-05-12", 0.308], ["2020-05-18", 0.313], ["2020-05-21", 0.312], ["2020-05-25", 0.312], ["2020-05-28", 0.307], ["2020-05-30", 0.307], ["2020-06-01", 0.305], ["2020-06-02", 0.305], ["2020-06-20", 0.305], ["2020-07-08", 0.305], ["2020-07-10", 0.305], ["2020-07-11", 0.302], ["2020-07-17", 0.302], ["2020-07-18", 0.303], ["2020-08-01", 0.304], ["2020-08-03", 0.302], ["2020-08-12", 0.3], ["2020-08-14", 0.285], ["2020-08-16", 0.285], ["2020-08-18", 0.281], ["2020-08-20", 0.279], ["2020-08-24", 0.276], ["2020-08-24", 0.274], ["2020-08-29", 0.274], ["2020-08-30", 0.271], ["2020-09-02", 0.269], ["2020-09-04", 0.268], ["2020-09-05", 0.264], ["2020-09-06", 0.264], ["2020-09-07", 0.26], ["2020-09-09", 0.26], ["2020-09-12", 0.258], ["2020-09-13", 0.259], ["2020-09-15", 0.255], ["2020-09-17", 0.251], ["2020-09-18", 0.253], ["2020-09-20", 0.253], ["2020-09-22", 0.25], ["2020-09-24", 0.246], ["2020-09-27", 0.247], ["2020-09-30", 0.238], ["2020-10-01", 0.218]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3256/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | According to a study by research website Comparitech, eight out of the ten most surveilled cities in the world are in China. The country has been making headlines for its generous use of surveillance technology and is featured heavily throughout the whole ranking that looked at 120 cities globally. According to Comparitech's list, the following cities are most heavily surveilled, in terms of the number surveillance cameras per 1,000 people (non-Chinese cities in bold):
Chongqing, China – 168.03 cameras per 1,000 people
Shenzhen, China – 159.09 cameras per 1,000 people
Shanghai, China – 113.46 cameras per 1,000 people
Tianjin, China – 92.87 cameras per 1,000 people
Ji’nan, China – 73.82 cameras per 1,000 people
London, England (UK) – 68.40 cameras per 1,000 people
Wuhan, China – 60.49 cameras per 1,000 people
Guangzhou, China – 52.75 cameras per 1,000 people
Beijing, China – 39.93 cameras per 1,000 people
Atlanta, Georgia (US) – 15.56 cameras per 1,000 people
By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?
Resolution
This question resolves on the basis of any reports published by Comparitech in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020. Note that Hong Kong is not included as part of China by Comparitech. | true | 2020-10-01 | By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-02 | 2019-10-29 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.155], ["2019-11-04", 0.1], ["2019-11-07", 0.122], ["2019-11-11", 0.122], ["2019-11-13", 0.123], ["2019-11-21", 0.124], ["2019-11-23", 0.126], ["2019-12-01", 0.128], ["2019-12-03", 0.138], ["2019-12-05", 0.142], ["2019-12-08", 0.152], ["2019-12-10", 0.155], ["2019-12-11", 0.162], ["2019-12-25", 0.164], ["2019-12-27", 0.162], ["2019-12-30", 0.162], ["2020-01-01", 0.162], ["2020-01-04", 0.168], ["2020-01-12", 0.166], ["2020-01-13", 0.166], ["2020-01-23", 0.166], ["2020-01-29", 0.168], ["2020-02-01", 0.168], ["2020-02-05", 0.17], ["2020-02-08", 0.17], ["2020-02-11", 0.169], ["2020-02-12", 0.168], ["2020-02-16", 0.168], ["2020-02-21", 0.169], ["2020-02-22", 0.166], ["2020-02-29", 0.165], ["2020-03-01", 0.165], ["2020-03-04", 0.165], ["2020-03-08", 0.165], ["2020-03-10", 0.164], ["2020-03-12", 0.161], ["2020-03-14", 0.161], ["2020-03-17", 0.161], ["2020-03-19", 0.161], ["2020-03-22", 0.161], ["2020-03-23", 0.161], ["2020-03-27", 0.161], ["2020-03-30", 0.16], ["2020-04-02", 0.159], ["2020-04-05", 0.159], ["2020-04-06", 0.158], ["2020-04-13", 0.157], ["2020-04-17", 0.156], ["2020-04-20", 0.157], ["2020-04-23", 0.156], ["2020-04-24", 0.156], ["2020-04-28", 0.154], ["2020-05-01", 0.156], ["2020-05-02", 0.154], ["2020-05-09", 0.154], ["2020-05-10", 0.154], ["2020-05-12", 0.153], ["2020-05-17", 0.152], ["2020-05-19", 0.147], ["2020-05-28", 0.147], ["2020-05-31", 0.144], ["2020-06-01", 0.145], ["2020-06-03", 0.145], ["2020-06-05", 0.147], ["2020-06-08", 0.145], ["2020-06-11", 0.145], ["2020-06-18", 0.144], ["2020-06-18", 0.145], ["2020-07-02", 0.145], ["2020-07-05", 0.145], ["2020-07-08", 0.145], ["2020-07-10", 0.145], ["2020-07-11", 0.144], ["2020-07-16", 0.144], ["2020-07-19", 0.144], ["2020-07-25", 0.144], ["2020-07-25", 0.143], ["2020-07-31", 0.143], ["2020-08-02", 0.137], ["2020-08-05", 0.136], ["2020-08-08", 0.128], ["2020-08-10", 0.128], ["2020-08-12", 0.124], ["2020-08-16", 0.124], ["2020-08-17", 0.124], ["2020-08-20", 0.122], ["2020-08-23", 0.122], ["2020-08-29", 0.121], ["2020-09-01", 0.117], ["2020-09-03", 0.116], ["2020-09-07", 0.116], ["2020-09-07", 0.116], ["2020-09-17", 0.116], ["2020-09-17", 0.115], ["2020-09-23", 0.115], ["2020-09-25", 0.113], ["2020-09-28", 0.109], ["2020-10-01", 0.109], ["2020-10-04", 0.102], ["2020-10-06", 0.098], ["2020-10-09", 0.072]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3263/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | DeepMind is a UK company founded in September 2010, currently owned by Alphabet Inc. The company has been at the forefront of research in artificial intelligence (Holcomb et al., 2018).
The company has recently not been profitable, however. According to the FT,
The artificial intelligence subsidiary of Alphabet, saw its losses rise by 55 per cent last year to £470.2m ($571m) and its debts rise to more than £1bn as the world’s biggest technology companies continue to pour huge sums into AI research and development.
Currently, the relevant LinkedIn page reveals that 836 people are reportedly currently employed by DeepMind.
By November 2nd, 2020, will 668 or fewer people be employed by DeepMind, according to LinkedIn search results? | true | 2020-10-09 | By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-09-20 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.1], ["2019-11-03", 0.326], ["2019-11-04", 0.273], ["2019-11-05", 0.275], ["2019-11-06", 0.268], ["2019-11-06", 0.265], ["2019-11-07", 0.265], ["2019-11-11", 0.279], ["2019-11-12", 0.279], ["2019-11-13", 0.275], ["2019-11-21", 0.275], ["2019-11-22", 0.266], ["2019-11-23", 0.266], ["2019-12-01", 0.265], ["2019-12-25", 0.263], ["2019-12-26", 0.258], ["2019-12-27", 0.261], ["2019-12-28", 0.261], ["2019-12-30", 0.265], ["2019-12-31", 0.263], ["2020-01-01", 0.291], ["2020-01-05", 0.291], ["2020-01-07", 0.295], ["2020-01-13", 0.297], ["2020-01-15", 0.297], ["2020-01-15", 0.283], ["2020-01-17", 0.283], ["2020-01-21", 0.282], ["2020-02-01", 0.282], ["2020-02-03", 0.286], ["2020-02-03", 0.286], ["2020-02-04", 0.281], ["2020-02-09", 0.281], ["2020-02-11", 0.283], ["2020-02-22", 0.282], ["2020-02-26", 0.282], ["2020-03-01", 0.279], ["2020-03-03", 0.277], ["2020-03-04", 0.276], ["2020-03-08", 0.276], ["2020-03-09", 0.274], ["2020-03-09", 0.276], ["2020-03-11", 0.27], ["2020-03-14", 0.27], ["2020-03-14", 0.268], ["2020-03-17", 0.268], ["2020-03-18", 0.268], ["2020-03-20", 0.267], ["2020-03-23", 0.267], ["2020-03-27", 0.268], ["2020-03-27", 0.268], ["2020-03-31", 0.267], ["2020-04-02", 0.267], ["2020-04-03", 0.267], ["2020-04-03", 0.267], ["2020-04-04", 0.265], ["2020-04-05", 0.265], ["2020-04-07", 0.265], ["2020-04-09", 0.262], ["2020-04-13", 0.262], ["2020-04-17", 0.261], ["2020-04-17", 0.264], ["2020-04-24", 0.264], ["2020-05-08", 0.262], ["2020-05-10", 0.26], ["2020-05-17", 0.257], ["2020-05-18", 0.256], ["2020-05-18", 0.254], ["2020-05-19", 0.253], ["2020-05-22", 0.253], ["2020-05-28", 0.254], ["2020-05-28", 0.254], ["2020-05-30", 0.253], ["2020-05-30", 0.254], ["2020-06-01", 0.251], ["2020-06-26", 0.251], ["2020-07-08", 0.25], ["2020-07-11", 0.25], ["2020-07-14", 0.247], ["2020-07-18", 0.247], ["2020-07-19", 0.246], ["2020-08-01", 0.246], ["2020-08-03", 0.246], ["2020-08-03", 0.246], ["2020-08-04", 0.243], ["2020-08-18", 0.243], ["2020-08-21", 0.242], ["2020-08-24", 0.242], ["2020-08-27", 0.24], ["2020-08-31", 0.24], ["2020-09-05", 0.238], ["2020-09-10", 0.236], ["2020-09-13", 0.236], ["2020-09-15", 0.235], ["2020-09-18", 0.235], ["2020-09-26", 0.232], ["2020-09-26", 0.231], ["2020-09-27", 0.232], ["2020-09-29", 0.233], ["2020-09-30", 0.231], ["2020-09-30", 0.231]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3267/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy (Magalhães et al., 2017). This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.
One of the more popular areas of research involves senolytics — a class of drugs that target and destroy aging (or senescent) cells. These drugs are in the early stages of development and might be approved by the FDA to be prescribed to target a specific condition or disease, and would carry the secondary impact of slowing down aging. Some, (notably, Unity Biotechnology, the >$200M startup) are betting large on the success of senolytics.
According to a research report by CBINSIGHTS, around $800M was invested in longevity startups in 2018 (see specifically this chart). This was the result of several large deals (such as UNITY Biotechnology series B, Insilico Medicine series A, and a deal by AgeX Therapeutics).
Even more impressive was Sumumed's 2018 fundraising campaign, which raised a total of $438M.
Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020 (i.e. from November 2nd, 2019 to November 2nd 2020)?
This question resolves positively if credible reports indicate that $5000M or more has been invested through seed stage and mid stage funding rounds, in longevity startups in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, according to data from crunchbase or other sources of venture capital and angel investment financing information. Mergers and acquisitions shall not count as investment for the purpose of this question.
Companies are considered working on "longevity" if these are on AgingBiotech.Info's list. If these are not on the list, an admin should decide whether the company is primarily focussed on the research and development of longevity enhancing therapeutics. | true | 2020-09-30 | Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-04 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.72], ["2019-11-04", 0.584], ["2019-11-07", 0.577], ["2019-11-12", 0.576], ["2019-11-21", 0.574], ["2019-11-23", 0.572], ["2019-11-29", 0.571], ["2019-12-01", 0.571], ["2019-12-13", 0.571], ["2019-12-16", 0.571], ["2019-12-18", 0.563], ["2019-12-20", 0.556], ["2019-12-21", 0.549], ["2019-12-25", 0.534], ["2019-12-27", 0.541], ["2019-12-30", 0.538], ["2020-01-01", 0.54], ["2020-01-03", 0.521], ["2020-01-07", 0.521], ["2020-01-10", 0.524], ["2020-01-13", 0.519], ["2020-01-16", 0.538], ["2020-01-21", 0.538], ["2020-01-27", 0.538], ["2020-01-31", 0.538], ["2020-02-03", 0.539], ["2020-02-04", 0.542], ["2020-02-09", 0.542], ["2020-02-11", 0.542], ["2020-02-17", 0.542], ["2020-02-21", 0.547], ["2020-02-22", 0.547], ["2020-03-05", 0.546], ["2020-03-08", 0.543], ["2020-03-11", 0.54], ["2020-03-14", 0.539], ["2020-03-17", 0.539], ["2020-03-23", 0.539], ["2020-03-26", 0.538], ["2020-03-29", 0.54], ["2020-03-31", 0.54], ["2020-04-03", 0.542], ["2020-04-05", 0.541], ["2020-04-12", 0.541], ["2020-04-13", 0.541], ["2020-04-16", 0.541], ["2020-04-18", 0.543], ["2020-04-22", 0.544], ["2020-04-23", 0.545], ["2020-04-26", 0.546], ["2020-04-27", 0.547], ["2020-04-29", 0.551], ["2020-05-02", 0.559], ["2020-05-05", 0.564], ["2020-05-10", 0.567], ["2020-05-12", 0.564], ["2020-05-14", 0.564], ["2020-05-17", 0.564], ["2020-05-18", 0.564], ["2020-05-21", 0.562], ["2020-05-23", 0.564], ["2020-05-26", 0.565], ["2020-05-30", 0.565], ["2020-06-01", 0.567], ["2020-06-03", 0.566], ["2020-06-05", 0.568], ["2020-06-07", 0.568], ["2020-06-11", 0.569], ["2020-06-14", 0.577], ["2020-06-23", 0.577], ["2020-06-26", 0.578], ["2020-07-01", 0.578], ["2020-07-02", 0.579], ["2020-07-08", 0.58], ["2020-07-10", 0.579], ["2020-07-12", 0.585], ["2020-07-14", 0.585], ["2020-07-18", 0.584], ["2020-07-19", 0.585], ["2020-07-22", 0.585], ["2020-08-03", 0.585], ["2020-08-05", 0.587], ["2020-08-08", 0.588], ["2020-08-11", 0.602], ["2020-08-12", 0.603], ["2020-08-14", 0.603], ["2020-08-17", 0.609], ["2020-08-20", 0.611], ["2020-08-30", 0.609], ["2020-09-02", 0.612], ["2020-09-05", 0.613], ["2020-09-07", 0.611], ["2020-09-10", 0.614], ["2020-09-11", 0.614], ["2020-09-14", 0.615], ["2020-09-15", 0.615], ["2020-09-18", 0.616], ["2020-09-21", 0.623], ["2020-09-24", 0.625], ["2020-09-27", 0.627], ["2020-09-30", 0.637]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3268/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The China–United States trade war is an ongoing economic conflict between the world’s two largest national economies. President Donald Trump in 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are "unfair trade practices".
So far, the US has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn (£296bn) of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of US products (BBC).
Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?
Resolution
This resolves positively if, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,
the U.S. imposes additional ≥$15bn worth in tariffs on Chinese goods, or China imposes addtional ≥$5bn worth of tarrifs on imports from the U.S.
AND, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,
No tariff reductions worth ≥$25bn on the imports of Chinese goods are made by the U.S., and no tariff reductions on the order of ≥$15bn on the imports of U.S. goods are made by China
The question resolves negatively if neither 1., 2. are deemed to have occurred. Finally, the question resolves ambiguously if only one of the two conditions obtain.
For the purpose of this question, the value of tariffs is the total amount that would be paid as tariffs under the assumption that import flows are equal to those in 2019 (i.e. not accounting for expenditure-switching effects). For example, if the U.S. increases its tariffs by 10% on Chinese goods that generated $200bn in export revenue for China in 2019, the value of those tariffs in 2020 will be considered to have been $20bn. | true | 2020-09-30 | Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-11-23 | 2019-10-31 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-02", 0.23], ["2019-11-03", 0.586], ["2019-11-04", 0.518], ["2019-11-04", 0.521], ["2019-11-05", 0.512], ["2019-11-05", 0.502], ["2019-11-06", 0.487], ["2019-11-07", 0.486], ["2019-11-08", 0.476], ["2019-11-23", 0.476], ["2019-12-01", 0.469], ["2019-12-17", 0.455], ["2019-12-17", 0.455], ["2019-12-25", 0.457], ["2019-12-26", 0.444], ["2019-12-26", 0.442], ["2019-12-27", 0.433], ["2019-12-31", 0.426], ["2020-01-02", 0.425], ["2020-01-05", 0.425], ["2020-01-11", 0.418], ["2020-01-12", 0.409], ["2020-01-13", 0.409], ["2020-02-01", 0.403], ["2020-02-01", 0.403], ["2020-02-03", 0.403], ["2020-02-05", 0.401], ["2020-02-09", 0.402], ["2020-02-10", 0.402], ["2020-02-11", 0.399], ["2020-02-12", 0.396], ["2020-02-16", 0.397], ["2020-02-21", 0.398], ["2020-02-21", 0.398], ["2020-02-22", 0.396], ["2020-03-01", 0.396], ["2020-03-01", 0.394], ["2020-03-07", 0.393], ["2020-03-10", 0.388], ["2020-03-11", 0.384], ["2020-03-14", 0.384], ["2020-03-14", 0.383], ["2020-03-17", 0.383], ["2020-03-23", 0.383], ["2020-03-27", 0.381], ["2020-04-02", 0.381], ["2020-04-02", 0.379], ["2020-04-03", 0.378], ["2020-04-04", 0.376], ["2020-04-05", 0.376], ["2020-04-09", 0.376], ["2020-04-17", 0.381], ["2020-04-18", 0.377], ["2020-04-24", 0.376], ["2020-05-10", 0.37], ["2020-05-17", 0.37], ["2020-05-17", 0.357], ["2020-05-18", 0.348], ["2020-05-18", 0.342], ["2020-05-22", 0.341], ["2020-05-25", 0.339], ["2020-05-28", 0.339], ["2020-05-30", 0.335], ["2020-05-30", 0.333], ["2020-06-01", 0.333], ["2020-06-05", 0.332], ["2020-06-06", 0.332], ["2020-06-07", 0.329], ["2020-06-14", 0.324], ["2020-06-30", 0.325], ["2020-07-03", 0.32], ["2020-07-10", 0.317], ["2020-07-10", 0.317], ["2020-07-11", 0.317], ["2020-07-15", 0.311], ["2020-07-31", 0.31], ["2020-08-12", 0.309], ["2020-08-12", 0.306], ["2020-08-17", 0.303], ["2020-08-18", 0.301], ["2020-08-19", 0.299], ["2020-08-22", 0.304], ["2020-08-24", 0.301], ["2020-08-27", 0.301], ["2020-08-29", 0.301], ["2020-08-30", 0.301], ["2020-08-31", 0.323], ["2020-09-08", 0.323], ["2020-09-10", 0.324], ["2020-09-10", 0.325], ["2020-09-15", 0.324], ["2020-09-19", 0.324], ["2020-09-20", 0.33], ["2020-09-22", 0.33], ["2020-09-23", 0.33], ["2020-09-24", 0.33], ["2020-09-27", 0.334], ["2020-09-28", 0.335], ["2020-09-29", 0.337], ["2020-09-30", 0.339], ["2020-09-30", 0.389]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3270/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | According to Leafscience, a life extension advocacy foundation, the thymus is one of the most important organs in the body, and potentially a suitable target for therapies that seek to extend the human health-span:
it is where thymocytes produced in the bone marrow travel to become new T cells before being trained in the lymph nodes to become the defenders of the adaptive immune system. However, as we get older, the thymus increasingly turns to fat and starts to shrink, causing its ability to produce new T cells to fall dramatically. This process is known as thymic involution and actually begins shortly after puberty, so this is one aspect of aging that begins fairly early in life, although it is many decades later before its decline causes serious health issues.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if between November 2nd 2019 and November 2nd 2020, it is credibly disclosed that a new in vivo study on regeneration or rejuvenating the human thymus has been started after November 2nd 2019. Credible disclosure may be via reporting in scientific (pre-print) articles, or registration in a clinical trial database. | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started? | metaculus | 0 |
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One of the more popular areas of research involves senolytics — a class of drugs that target and destroy aging (or senescent) cells. These drugs are in the early stages of development and might be approved by the FDA to be prescribed to target a specific condition or disease, and would carry the secondary impact of slowing down aging. Some, (notably, Unity Biotechnology, the startup with a valuation in excess off $200M) are betting large on the success of senolytics.
In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of 1bn in 2019 USD for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?
This question resolves positively if credible financial reporting indicates that a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn in 2019 USD for a with a primary business focus of longevity. Private funding rounds here refer to venture rounds, mezzanine finance rounds, seed rounds and angel rounds.
Companies are considered working on "longevity" if these are on AgingBiotech.Info's list and listed as "yes" or "only brain" in the "Is it aging?" column. If the list is for some reason no longer available, an admin should decide whether the company is primarily focussed on the research and development of longevity enhancing therapeutics.
Companies that were previously valued in excess $1bn that do not raise money in a private funding stage in the year ending November 2nd, 2020 do not count as qualifying companies for the purpose of this question. | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity? | metaculus | 0 |
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Blockchain was invented by a person (or group of people) using the name Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 to serve as the public transaction ledger of the cryptocurrency bitcoin.
In addition to its application in cryptocurrencies, blockchain has also been proposed as a method to enable smart-contracts, i.e. contracts that can be partially or fully executed or enforced without human interaction.
Blockchain, and especially the cryptocurrencies that it enables, have have had some geopolitical ramifications, according to Trustnodes:
As Venezuela embarks on a radical experiment, as Turkey trades with Russia through crypto payments, as Iran considers its own cryptocurrency, and as Saudi Arabia as well as Dubai announce plans to issue digital currencies, the ramifications of blockchain technology to the post world war two financial order are becoming clearer by the day.
In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?
This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:
A new cryptocurrency will be issued by national government(s), and achieve a market capitalisation of >$10bn (in 2019 USD);
Cryptocurrencies are used to enable trade for goods and services for which at least one counterparty is being economically sanctioned by at least one G20 country, and the value of the trade flow exceeds $750M (in 2019 USD);
Cryptocurrencies are used to fund a group designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the United States, with funding being in excess of $100M;
Blockchain enabled smart contracts are implemented by any G20 government as part of national trade policy, or climate change mitigation policies to address commitment problems.
In case it's unclear to admins how to resolve this question, it shall be decided by unanimous vote of a committee of three, comprised of Zaki Manian, Allison Duettmann, and Anthony Aguirre. Resolves ambiguous in case of a non-unanimous vote. | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of November 2019, searches by the author of "prediction market", "predictit", "metaculus", "good judgement project" and a few similar terms uncovered no case in which predictions by prediction market or platform were quoted for a topic other than politics, sports, or movie awards.
This question resolves positive if between November 2, 2019 and November 2, 2020 a particular prediction made by a prediction market, or a crowd-based platform like Metaculus, is quoted in the WaPo or NYT, regarding something that is not related to sports or politics*, or for which an award is given.
*Construed to mean political contests, ballots, referenda, and the fate of various political figures. | true | 2020-09-01 | By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes? | metaculus | 0 |
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The fingertip is the only part of the human limb that is regeneration‐competent (Dolan et al., 2018). The regenerating mouse digit tip has emerged as a model to study a clinically relevant regenerative response. According to (Dolan et al., 2018), this is for good reason:
Studies of digit tip regeneration have identified critical components of the regenerative response, and how an understanding of endogenous regeneration can lead to expanding the regenerative capabilities of nonregenerative amputation wounds. Such studies demonstrate that regeneration‐incompetent wounds can respond to treatment with individual morphogenetic agents by initiating a multi‐tissue response that culminates in structural regeneration.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in mice or rats (i.e. in excess of endogenous regeneration)?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if results that provide strong evidence of the efficacy of the medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration digits in mice or rats are published in a reputable journal. The regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy must be "novel" in the sense of having not been previously applied to in vivo studies of regenerative response in rodent models. "Strong" evidence includes findings that are statistically significant at a level of 5%, amongst other criteria decided by an admin. | true | 2020-09-30 | In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents? | metaculus | 0 |
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Under California law, any elected official may be the target of a recall campaign. To trigger a recall election, proponents of the recall must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures statewide must equal 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous election for that office.
Under most circumstances in which a recall campaign against a statewide elected official has gathered the required number of signatures, the governor is required to schedule a special election for the recall vote. If the recall campaign qualified less than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election. In recall of the governor, the responsibility for scheduling a special election falls on the lieutenant governor.
The recall ballot has two components: * a yes or no vote for recall, and the names of replacement candidates, selected by the nomination process used in regular elections. * The recall measure itself is successful if it passes by a majority. In that case, the replacement candidate with a simple plurality of votes wins the office. If the recall measure fails, the replacement candidate votes are ignored.
The Cruz recall was approved for circulation by the California Secretary of State on September 6, 2019. Supporters of that recall have until February 13, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.
The Veltmeyer recall was approved for circulation on September 27, 2019. Supporters of the recall have until March 5, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.
Resolves positive if at least 1,495,709 signatures are gathered and certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. | true | 2020-01-15 | Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-08 | 2019-11-15 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-19", 0.38], ["2019-11-19", 0.29], ["2019-11-20", 0.303], ["2019-11-21", 0.303], ["2019-11-21", 0.318], ["2019-11-23", 0.312], ["2019-11-23", 0.312], ["2019-11-26", 0.301], ["2019-11-26", 0.301], ["2019-11-26", 0.316], ["2019-11-26", 0.31], ["2019-11-26", 0.326], ["2019-11-26", 0.326], ["2019-11-26", 0.333], ["2019-11-27", 0.328], ["2019-11-27", 0.328], ["2019-11-27", 0.328], ["2019-11-27", 0.328], ["2019-11-29", 0.328], ["2019-11-29", 0.328], ["2019-11-30", 0.328], ["2019-12-01", 0.328], ["2019-12-09", 0.328], ["2019-12-10", 0.328], ["2019-12-11", 0.332], ["2019-12-11", 0.332], ["2019-12-11", 0.332], ["2019-12-27", 0.316], ["2019-12-28", 0.309], ["2019-12-29", 0.309], ["2019-12-30", 0.293], ["2020-01-02", 0.293], ["2020-01-02", 0.291], ["2020-01-13", 0.291], ["2020-02-02", 0.312], ["2020-02-15", 0.314], ["2020-02-23", 0.314], ["2020-03-06", 0.318]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3345/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | It is estimated that 60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock. The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[1]
World Animal Protection is expected to update its assessment of each country and considers a number of indicators which address the key issues relevant to improving animal welfare around the world. One of these issue is the welfare of farm animals. Specifically, the following three types of concerns related to the welfare of farm animals are considered:
The protection of animals’ welfare needs during rearing, such as freedom of movement and freedom to express natural behaviours
The protection of animals’ welfare needs during transport
The protection of animals’ welfare needs at slaughter, including avoiding unnecessary suffering
In 2017, the USA produced the most beef and veal, and poultry in the world, whilst China produces the most Pork in the world.[2]
In the 2014 Animal Protection Index, the USA was awarded a grade D and China an E for protecting animals used in farming.
Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for protecting animals used in farming by the end 2022?
This question resolves positively if either the USA receives a grade C or above, or China receives a grade D or above, for the indicator "protecting animals used in farming" (or both). The relevant grades are those published in the second edition of the Animal Protection Index, planned to be released in early 2020. This question resolves ambiguously if the grades for China and the USA for the indicator "protecting animals used in farming" are not issued for any years until, and including 2022, before the end of 2023.
In case multiple versions of the Animal Protection Index are released by the end of 2022, this question resolves per the indicator grades of the first to be released.
This question shall be retroactively closed and resolved two days before the second edition of the Animal Protection Index is released. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-01-12 | 2019-11-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-22", 0.56], ["2019-11-22", 0.473], ["2019-11-23", 0.473], ["2019-11-23", 0.405], ["2019-11-23", 0.345], ["2019-11-23", 0.324], ["2019-11-23", 0.328], ["2019-11-23", 0.317], ["2019-11-23", 0.297], ["2019-11-24", 0.278], ["2019-11-24", 0.278], ["2019-11-24", 0.251], ["2019-11-25", 0.251], ["2019-11-25", 0.243], ["2019-11-25", 0.243], ["2019-11-25", 0.239], ["2019-11-25", 0.224], ["2019-11-25", 0.228], ["2019-11-25", 0.217], ["2019-11-25", 0.22], ["2019-11-26", 0.218], ["2019-11-26", 0.217], ["2019-11-26", 0.211], ["2019-11-26", 0.239], ["2019-11-27", 0.208], ["2019-11-27", 0.208], ["2019-11-27", 0.228], ["2019-11-27", 0.226], ["2019-11-29", 0.225], ["2019-11-29", 0.225], ["2019-11-29", 0.222], ["2019-11-30", 0.227], ["2019-11-30", 0.229], ["2019-12-01", 0.229], ["2019-12-01", 0.233], ["2019-12-02", 0.238], ["2019-12-02", 0.238], ["2019-12-02", 0.233], ["2019-12-02", 0.233], ["2019-12-02", 0.235], ["2019-12-02", 0.232], ["2019-12-03", 0.228], ["2019-12-03", 0.227], ["2019-12-03", 0.228], ["2019-12-03", 0.228], ["2019-12-03", 0.221], ["2019-12-04", 0.221], ["2019-12-05", 0.223], ["2019-12-06", 0.222], ["2019-12-06", 0.225], ["2019-12-07", 0.225], ["2019-12-08", 0.218], ["2019-12-08", 0.215], ["2019-12-08", 0.215], ["2019-12-08", 0.214], ["2019-12-09", 0.214], ["2019-12-09", 0.213], ["2019-12-10", 0.207], ["2019-12-11", 0.207], ["2019-12-12", 0.206], ["2019-12-13", 0.205], ["2019-12-13", 0.205], ["2019-12-13", 0.201], ["2019-12-14", 0.201], ["2019-12-14", 0.197], ["2019-12-16", 0.197], ["2019-12-16", 0.196], ["2019-12-16", 0.194], ["2019-12-16", 0.191], ["2019-12-17", 0.185], ["2019-12-17", 0.185], ["2019-12-19", 0.18], ["2019-12-19", 0.18], ["2019-12-20", 0.177], ["2019-12-20", 0.172], ["2019-12-21", 0.172], ["2019-12-21", 0.172], ["2019-12-21", 0.172], ["2019-12-22", 0.171], ["2019-12-24", 0.165], ["2019-12-26", 0.165], ["2019-12-26", 0.164], ["2019-12-26", 0.164], ["2019-12-26", 0.161], ["2019-12-27", 0.158], ["2019-12-27", 0.161], ["2019-12-27", 0.154], ["2019-12-28", 0.154], ["2019-12-28", 0.153], ["2019-12-28", 0.155], ["2019-12-28", 0.153], ["2019-12-30", 0.153], ["2019-12-30", 0.149], ["2019-12-31", 0.143], ["2019-12-31", 0.141], ["2019-12-31", 0.14], ["2019-12-31", 0.133], ["2019-12-31", 0.126], ["2019-12-31", 0.12], ["2019-12-31", 0.116], ["2019-12-31", 0.124]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3358/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).
The Guardian reports that on the 16th of November 2019:
On Saturday afternoon, a few dozen Chinese soldiers jogged out of their barracks in triple file line, wearing shorts and matching army green T-shirts. They cheerily joined a group of residents, clearing away road blocks set up by anti-government protesters, using brooms and plastic buckets.
This Le Monde article (fr) identifies three entities under direct chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:
The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationned in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.
The Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force.
The above November 16th soldiers belonged to the PLA.
Question: Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong in 2019?
Positive resolution will be by either:
The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.
A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.
Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).
Resolution details:
Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.
The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in 2019 are not found before the end of the 7th of January, 2020.
Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.
This question was already asked twice: for August and for September 2019, and resolved negatively both times. | true | 2019-12-31 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-03-08 | 2019-11-25 | [] | binary | [["2019-11-29", 0.385], ["2019-11-29", 0.385], ["2019-11-29", 0.377], ["2019-11-29", 0.38], ["2019-11-30", 0.38], ["2019-11-30", 0.338], ["2019-12-04", 0.308], ["2019-12-04", 0.308], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-04", 0.3], ["2019-12-11", 0.286], ["2019-12-16", 0.29], ["2019-12-17", 0.29], ["2019-12-27", 0.284], ["2020-01-02", 0.317], ["2020-01-02", 0.317], ["2020-01-02", 0.304], ["2020-01-06", 0.299], ["2020-01-10", 0.29], ["2020-01-14", 0.288], ["2020-01-31", 0.301], ["2020-02-04", 0.294], ["2020-02-10", 0.295], ["2020-02-19", 0.314], ["2020-02-23", 0.314], ["2020-02-29", 0.314], ["2020-03-08", 0.314]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3374/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Recent work in neuroscience suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released "The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness," arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes.
In the US, there is some federal legislation recognising some aspects of animal sentience in some animals. In particular, the preamble to the Humane Methods of Slaughter Act of 1958 explains that the use of humane methods in the slaughter of livestock prevents needless suffering, thereby acknowledging this capacity in non-human animals. However, the legislation does not extend to poultry, fish, rabbits or other animals routinely slaughtered for food.[1]
In China, the recognition of non-human animal sentience is very limited: according to Wold Animal Protection, only a couple Chinese legislative articles refer to the humane treatment of animals and measures to ensure that the animals in question do not suffer, whereas most articles regulating the treatment of animals do not.
In 2017, the USA produced the most beef and veal, and poultry in the world, whilst China produces the most Pork in the world.[2]
The US received a D and China received an E in WAP's 2014 index.
Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received it in the 2014 index for its recognition of animal sentience by the end 2022?
Resolution
This question resolves positively if either the USA receives a grade of C or above, or China receives a grade D or above (or both), in the second edition of the Animal Protection Index, planned to be released in early 2020. This question resolves ambiguously if the grades for China and the USA for the indicator "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience" are not issued before the end of 2022.
This question shall be retroactively closed and resolved two days before the second edition of the Animal Protection Index is released. | true | 2021-05-31 | Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-08 | 2019-12-04 | [] | binary | [["2019-12-12", 0.08], ["2019-12-13", 0.48], ["2019-12-14", 0.617], ["2019-12-16", 0.647], ["2019-12-16", 0.667], ["2019-12-17", 0.697], ["2019-12-19", 0.72], ["2019-12-20", 0.726], ["2019-12-22", 0.743], ["2019-12-30", 0.743], ["2020-01-12", 0.794], ["2020-01-16", 0.794], ["2020-01-20", 0.794], ["2020-01-22", 0.801], ["2020-01-22", 0.798], ["2020-02-02", 0.798], ["2020-02-05", 0.792], ["2020-02-11", 0.786], ["2020-02-17", 0.784], ["2020-02-18", 0.777], ["2020-02-23", 0.777], ["2020-02-23", 0.771], ["2020-03-06", 0.771], ["2020-03-07", 0.767], ["2020-03-10", 0.769], ["2020-03-11", 0.765], ["2020-03-16", 0.765], ["2020-03-17", 0.765], ["2020-03-19", 0.765], ["2020-03-20", 0.765], ["2020-03-21", 0.771], ["2020-03-22", 0.771], ["2020-03-23", 0.771], ["2020-03-31", 0.767], ["2020-04-02", 0.767], ["2020-04-03", 0.766], ["2020-04-03", 0.766], ["2020-04-04", 0.766], ["2020-04-05", 0.766], ["2020-04-21", 0.766], ["2020-04-21", 0.763], ["2020-04-23", 0.763], ["2020-04-25", 0.763], ["2020-04-30", 0.76], ["2020-06-01", 0.757], ["2020-06-01", 0.763], ["2020-06-06", 0.766], ["2020-06-24", 0.766], ["2020-07-11", 0.76], ["2020-08-13", 0.76], ["2020-08-19", 0.762], ["2020-08-21", 0.756], ["2020-09-12", 0.759], ["2020-09-16", 0.759], ["2020-09-22", 0.76], ["2020-10-01", 0.761], ["2020-10-03", 0.763], ["2020-10-05", 0.763], ["2020-10-05", 0.769], ["2020-10-09", 0.769], ["2020-10-09", 0.772], ["2020-10-22", 0.772], ["2020-10-22", 0.772], ["2020-10-23", 0.772], ["2020-10-31", 0.778], ["2020-11-03", 0.783], ["2020-11-04", 0.787], ["2020-11-08", 0.788], ["2020-11-08", 0.789], ["2020-11-18", 0.79], ["2020-11-19", 0.793], ["2020-11-20", 0.793], ["2020-11-25", 0.796], ["2020-12-07", 0.797], ["2020-12-08", 0.801], ["2020-12-10", 0.801], ["2020-12-13", 0.801], ["2020-12-14", 0.801], ["2020-12-16", 0.804], ["2020-12-17", 0.806], ["2020-12-18", 0.806], ["2020-12-20", 0.808], ["2020-12-21", 0.81], ["2020-12-22", 0.813], ["2020-12-23", 0.816], ["2020-12-24", 0.841], ["2020-12-26", 0.841], ["2020-12-29", 0.842], ["2020-12-30", 0.852], ["2020-12-30", 0.852], ["2020-12-31", 0.862], ["2021-01-01", 0.873], ["2021-01-01", 0.875], ["2021-01-02", 0.886], ["2021-01-03", 0.892], ["2021-01-04", 0.895], ["2021-01-04", 0.9], ["2021-01-05", 0.905], ["2021-01-06", 0.908], ["2021-01-07", 0.914], ["2021-01-08", 0.928]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3398/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | In Janurary 2016 Physical Review Letters published a paper by a Hungarian research group reporting anomalous results in the decays of excited beryllium-8 atoms. A careful analysis posted in an April 2016 paper suggests that this anomaly is consistent with the existence of a hitherto unknown light (17 MeV) vector boson.
Since then, interest in this potential new physics has grown, though it is tempered by concern about the experimental group and its previous work; see this story for a nice summary.
As discussed in this story, several ongoing or proposed experiments may be able to independently test the possibility of a new vector boson in this mass range in the next year or two, and it is possible that another team could independently reproduce the original nuclear physics experiment.
A previous question by our glorious leader Anthony resolved on Jan 9, 2018 with no new evidence on the matter. Theoretical work has continued on the subject since (see google scholar) and in October 2019, the original Hungarian group uploaded a new paper to the arxiv where they report observing similar anomalous decays of excited He atoms.
Question: By beginning of 2021, will no independent group publish or post to the arxiv a paper adducing additional experimental evidence for a new vector boson in the mass range of 10-50 MeV?
By independent, we mean that the paper will not share authors with either the PRL experimental paper or the Feng et al. theoretical paper; by "adduce experimental evidence" we will include both new experiments providing evidence at > 3-sigma or equivalent, or a new theoretical analysis of data other than that of the Hungarian group providing at least 4-sigma or equivalent evidence. | true | 2021-01-08 | Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-01 | 2019-12-05 | [] | binary | [["2019-12-12", 0.45], ["2019-12-12", 0.55], ["2019-12-12", 0.542], ["2019-12-13", 0.523], ["2019-12-13", 0.545], ["2019-12-13", 0.545], ["2019-12-13", 0.587], ["2019-12-13", 0.587], ["2019-12-13", 0.586], ["2019-12-14", 0.579], ["2019-12-14", 0.574], ["2019-12-14", 0.579], ["2019-12-14", 0.562], ["2019-12-14", 0.588], ["2019-12-14", 0.588], ["2019-12-14", 0.595], ["2019-12-15", 0.595], ["2019-12-15", 0.595], ["2019-12-15", 0.599], ["2019-12-15", 0.607], ["2019-12-15", 0.607], ["2019-12-16", 0.618], ["2019-12-16", 0.616], ["2019-12-16", 0.616], ["2019-12-16", 0.618], ["2019-12-16", 0.62], ["2019-12-16", 0.634], ["2019-12-17", 0.634], ["2019-12-17", 0.632], ["2019-12-17", 0.636], ["2019-12-17", 0.636], ["2019-12-17", 0.647], ["2019-12-17", 0.646], ["2019-12-17", 0.643], ["2019-12-18", 0.64], ["2019-12-18", 0.64], ["2019-12-18", 0.644], ["2019-12-19", 0.644], ["2019-12-19", 0.652], ["2019-12-20", 0.655], ["2019-12-20", 0.662], ["2019-12-21", 0.662], ["2019-12-21", 0.658], ["2019-12-21", 0.664], ["2019-12-21", 0.664], ["2019-12-21", 0.654], ["2019-12-21", 0.647], ["2019-12-22", 0.637], ["2019-12-22", 0.633], ["2019-12-22", 0.635], ["2019-12-22", 0.638], ["2019-12-22", 0.638], ["2019-12-22", 0.636], ["2019-12-22", 0.634], ["2019-12-22", 0.634], ["2019-12-23", 0.63], ["2019-12-23", 0.631], ["2019-12-23", 0.631], ["2019-12-23", 0.612], ["2019-12-23", 0.621], ["2019-12-23", 0.623], ["2019-12-23", 0.623], ["2019-12-24", 0.618], ["2019-12-24", 0.617], ["2019-12-24", 0.615], ["2019-12-24", 0.615], ["2019-12-25", 0.615], ["2019-12-25", 0.614], ["2019-12-26", 0.615], ["2019-12-26", 0.611], ["2019-12-26", 0.611], ["2019-12-26", 0.613], ["2019-12-26", 0.619], ["2019-12-26", 0.618], ["2019-12-26", 0.618], ["2019-12-27", 0.625], ["2019-12-27", 0.626], ["2019-12-27", 0.629], ["2019-12-27", 0.632], ["2019-12-28", 0.633], ["2019-12-28", 0.638], ["2019-12-29", 0.637], ["2019-12-29", 0.638], ["2019-12-29", 0.64], ["2019-12-29", 0.646], ["2019-12-29", 0.648], ["2019-12-29", 0.653], ["2019-12-30", 0.661], ["2019-12-30", 0.661], ["2019-12-30", 0.658], ["2019-12-30", 0.659], ["2019-12-30", 0.66], ["2019-12-31", 0.66], ["2019-12-31", 0.682], ["2019-12-31", 0.694], ["2019-12-31", 0.707], ["2019-12-31", 0.718], ["2019-12-31", 0.744], ["2019-12-31", 0.753], ["2020-01-01", 0.774], ["2020-01-01", 0.775]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3401/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | On 2019-12-03, North Korea's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement through the Korean Central News Agency. The statement concluded:
What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get
This is hardly the first time the North Korean government has employed this type of threatening metaphor. For example, the AP notes that:
After the North tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017, Kim called the missile a “package of gifts” to the Americans for their Fourth of July holiday.
There are a variety of possible gifts the North Koreans could have in mind, including A nuclear weapon test, A ballistic missile test, An attack on a military target, or An attack on a civilian target...
...or maybe nothing at all! KCNA is full of hyperbolic, aggressive propaganda. North Korea is not the most reliable gift-giver. This could very well be just another bluff. Accordingly, I ask:
Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas gift?
This question resolves negatively if North Korea does (or attempts) any of the following:
Launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.
Testing a nuclear weapon.
Committing an act of war in which at least one person is injured.
Any inflammatory acts judged by Metaculus Admins to be commensurate to those listed above.
This question resolves positively if by New Year's day (on-time gifting is hard!), North Korea has not committed any of the above.
One exception: any injury-causing acts of war precipitated by defection attempts will not satisfy a negative resolution, because while defections are a common flash-point in the conflict, that's definitely not the "gift". | true | 2020-01-01 | Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-08-21 | 2019-12-30 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-10", 0.9], ["2020-01-10", 0.853], ["2020-01-10", 0.855], ["2020-01-11", 0.844], ["2020-01-11", 0.69], ["2020-01-11", 0.722], ["2020-01-11", 0.722], ["2020-01-11", 0.738], ["2020-01-11", 0.738], ["2020-01-11", 0.82], ["2020-01-11", 0.819], ["2020-01-12", 0.818], ["2020-01-12", 0.814], ["2020-01-12", 0.817], ["2020-01-12", 0.817], ["2020-01-12", 0.8], ["2020-01-13", 0.8], ["2020-01-13", 0.793], ["2020-01-13", 0.788], ["2020-01-14", 0.788], ["2020-01-14", 0.79], ["2020-01-14", 0.793], ["2020-01-15", 0.793], ["2020-01-16", 0.793], ["2020-01-17", 0.793], ["2020-01-18", 0.791], ["2020-01-18", 0.793], ["2020-01-20", 0.793], ["2020-01-21", 0.792], ["2020-01-21", 0.792], ["2020-01-21", 0.793], ["2020-01-26", 0.79], ["2020-01-26", 0.79], ["2020-01-26", 0.79], ["2020-01-27", 0.795], ["2020-01-28", 0.798], ["2020-01-28", 0.798], ["2020-01-31", 0.797], ["2020-01-31", 0.796], ["2020-02-01", 0.795], ["2020-02-01", 0.795], ["2020-02-01", 0.795], ["2020-02-01", 0.795], ["2020-02-02", 0.792], ["2020-02-03", 0.791], ["2020-02-04", 0.789], ["2020-02-06", 0.789], ["2020-02-06", 0.783], ["2020-02-07", 0.782], ["2020-02-07", 0.783], ["2020-02-08", 0.768], ["2020-02-08", 0.781], ["2020-02-08", 0.782], ["2020-02-08", 0.782], ["2020-02-09", 0.782], ["2020-02-12", 0.781], ["2020-02-12", 0.78], ["2020-02-13", 0.777], ["2020-02-13", 0.777], ["2020-02-13", 0.772], ["2020-02-15", 0.772], ["2020-02-16", 0.764], ["2020-02-17", 0.764], ["2020-02-18", 0.764], ["2020-02-20", 0.763], ["2020-02-20", 0.762], ["2020-02-23", 0.763], ["2020-02-24", 0.764], ["2020-02-25", 0.763], ["2020-02-25", 0.76], ["2020-02-26", 0.76], ["2020-02-27", 0.757], ["2020-03-01", 0.757], ["2020-03-01", 0.748], ["2020-03-01", 0.748], ["2020-03-01", 0.738], ["2020-03-01", 0.733], ["2020-03-02", 0.735], ["2020-03-02", 0.73], ["2020-03-02", 0.727], ["2020-03-02", 0.725], ["2020-03-02", 0.716], ["2020-03-02", 0.711], ["2020-03-02", 0.702], ["2020-03-02", 0.695], ["2020-03-02", 0.694], ["2020-03-02", 0.692], ["2020-03-03", 0.686], ["2020-03-03", 0.686], ["2020-03-03", 0.686], ["2020-03-03", 0.686], ["2020-03-03", 0.686], ["2020-03-04", 0.68], ["2020-03-04", 0.68], ["2020-03-04", 0.677], ["2020-03-04", 0.679], ["2020-03-04", 0.682], ["2020-03-04", 0.682], ["2020-03-04", 0.683], ["2020-03-04", 0.68], ["2020-03-05", 0.68]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3440/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The US Democratic Party selects its candidate for president at the Democratic National Convention. For this upcoming election, the DNC will be held at The Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin between July 13 to July 16, 2020 (Wikipedia).
At this convention, a vote among 3,979 pledged delegates is held during the first round (The Green Papers) and the candidate with 1,990 delegates will be chosen as the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election. If a candidate is not selected after the first round of voting, additional rounds of voting take place, with the inclusion of superdelegates.
This question will close the day after the Super Tuesday primaries are held: March 4, 2020 at 11:59 PM ET
This question will resolve one week after the DNC concludes: July 23, 2020 at 11:59 PM ET
This question resolves positively if any candidate receives 1,990 delegates during the first round of voting at the DNC.
This question resolves negatively if no one candidate receives 1,990 delegates in the first round of voting at the DNC. | true | 2020-03-05 | Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting? | metaculus | 1 |
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S&P 500 closed 3,230.78 Dec. 31, 2019.
Resolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 3,230.78 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 3,230.78 points in the last day close of 2020. | true | 2020-01-31 | Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher? | metaculus | 1 |
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This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?
Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. | true | 2021-12-01 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
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As of 30 November 2017, North Korea had carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984. 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il-sung and 16 under Kim Jong-il. Under Kim Jong-un, more than 80 tests have been undertaken.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'
This question asks: Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?
This question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations or by confirmation of any any permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.
This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the US armed forces launch an invasion of Iran with the intention of overthrowing the Supreme Leader of Iran in 2020?
Question resolves positively if both:
US air AND ground forces strike targets while inside the land border of Iran. The ground forces alone have to be in excess of 2000 troops. USSOCOM-led forces do not count.
And while US troops are on Iranian soil, either:
a. The US government issues an official statement* calling for Ali Khamenei to resign/surrender or otherwise abdicate his position as Supreme Leader of Iran
b. Or subsequent to a US invasion of Iran, Khamenei ceases to hold the title of Supreme Leader for any reason (death, resignation, etc)
c. Or the US recognizes a government other than that headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei as the legal government of Iran
Credible media reports that these have happened are sufficient for resolution.
Question resolves negatively if on January 1, 2021 Khamenei remains Supreme Leader of Iran and the US either failed to invade Iran (1) or not attempted regime change (2)
Question resolves ambiguously if: Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran prior to a US invasion for any reason.
*An official statement includes any statement by a member of the executive branch that could be reasonably construed to describe the offical policy of the US goverment. Or, a bill passed by the US congress. In the case where there is ambiguity about whether a statement represents the official policy of the US government (e.g. Trump tweet), it does not count if it is retracted or substantially amended within 48 hours. | true | 2021-01-01 | US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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So the question is: will there be a war between the United States of America and Iran in 2020?
For the purpose of this questions, the war between US and Iran is defined as:
US President (whether it is Donald Trump or any other person) requests and receives Congressional authorization for military action (even if the word "war" is not used) against Iran
There is a significant military action involving US and Iranian military, and lasting longer than 2 days, as described by major news sources.
Both conditions should be fulfilled for the question to resolve positively.
Isolated ad-hoc military engagements, as well as targeted strikes, terrorist attacks against civilians or attacks against military targets not resulting in prolonged engagement with Congressional authorization, and actions via proxies do not count as "war" for the purpose of this question.
If the Congress does authorize the military action against Iran, the question should be retroactively closed 24 hours before that. | true | 2020-12-01 | Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-01-02 | 2020-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2020-01-14", 0.3], ["2020-01-15", 0.701], ["2020-01-18", 0.708], ["2020-01-21", 0.705], ["2020-01-23", 0.692], ["2020-02-01", 0.7], ["2020-02-01", 0.7], ["2020-02-15", 0.686], ["2020-02-20", 0.688], ["2020-02-23", 0.688], ["2020-02-26", 0.686], ["2020-03-02", 0.679], ["2020-03-07", 0.677], ["2020-03-11", 0.667], ["2020-03-15", 0.667], ["2020-03-19", 0.669], ["2020-03-23", 0.669], ["2020-03-27", 0.669], ["2020-03-28", 0.672], ["2020-03-31", 0.67], ["2020-04-03", 0.67], ["2020-04-05", 0.67], ["2020-04-08", 0.67], ["2020-04-10", 0.675], ["2020-04-14", 0.674], ["2020-04-17", 0.674], ["2020-04-22", 0.671], ["2020-04-23", 0.668], ["2020-05-01", 0.668], ["2020-05-30", 0.671], ["2020-06-02", 0.664], ["2020-06-08", 0.664], ["2020-06-15", 0.668], ["2020-06-18", 0.654], ["2020-06-21", 0.654], ["2020-06-29", 0.659], ["2020-06-30", 0.666], ["2020-07-31", 0.669], ["2020-08-03", 0.692], ["2020-08-05", 0.7], ["2020-08-14", 0.702], ["2020-08-18", 0.702], ["2020-08-19", 0.704], ["2020-08-29", 0.703], ["2020-09-03", 0.704], ["2020-09-07", 0.729], ["2020-09-14", 0.719], ["2020-09-16", 0.733], ["2020-09-24", 0.737], ["2020-09-25", 0.737], ["2020-10-01", 0.74], ["2020-10-04", 0.74], ["2020-10-08", 0.742], ["2020-10-10", 0.743], ["2020-10-15", 0.743], ["2020-10-19", 0.744], ["2020-10-22", 0.744], ["2020-10-25", 0.744], ["2020-10-26", 0.748], ["2020-10-31", 0.751], ["2020-11-03", 0.764], ["2020-11-07", 0.765], ["2020-11-10", 0.768], ["2020-11-14", 0.771], ["2020-11-18", 0.77], ["2020-11-19", 0.77], ["2020-11-26", 0.773], ["2020-11-28", 0.778], ["2020-11-30", 0.778], ["2020-12-02", 0.782], ["2020-12-04", 0.782], ["2020-12-07", 0.785], ["2020-12-10", 0.791], ["2020-12-12", 0.794], ["2020-12-15", 0.794], ["2020-12-16", 0.8], ["2020-12-19", 0.805], ["2020-12-20", 0.806], ["2020-12-23", 0.809], ["2020-12-25", 0.815], ["2020-12-27", 0.817], ["2020-12-30", 0.827], ["2021-01-02", 0.828], ["2021-01-06", 0.83], ["2021-01-09", 0.833], ["2021-01-11", 0.83], ["2021-01-16", 0.831], ["2021-01-17", 0.832], ["2021-01-21", 0.833], ["2021-01-26", 0.833], ["2021-01-29", 0.834], ["2021-01-31", 0.836], ["2021-02-03", 0.838], ["2021-02-07", 0.839], ["2021-02-10", 0.836], ["2021-02-14", 0.836], ["2021-02-17", 0.834], ["2021-02-20", 0.835], ["2021-02-23", 0.835], ["2021-02-27", 0.839], ["2021-02-28", 0.842]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/3481/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism (Wikipedia). CRISPR/Cas9 is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, Lulu and Nana, had been born (Regalado, 2018b).
After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked “Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?” and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.
A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him (Cyranoski, 2020). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year.
According to Vox's Kelsey Piper:
The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday.
Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as CAS9. Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.
In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. | true | 2021-03-01 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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