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The Epoch-Greedy Algorithm for Contextual Multi-armed Bandits Tong Zhang Department of Statistics Rutgers University [email protected] John Langford Yahoo! Research [email protected] Abstract We present Epoch-Greedy, an algorithm for contextual multi-armed bandits (also known as bandits with side information). Epoch-Greedy has the following properties: 1. No knowledge of a time horizon T is necessary. 2. The regret incurred by Epoch-Greedy is controlled by a sample complexity bound for a hypothesis class. 3. The regret scales as O(T 2/3 S 1/3 ) or better (sometimes, much better). Here S is the complexity term in a sample complexity bound for standard supervised learning. 1 Introduction The standard k-armed bandits problem has been well-studied in the literature (Lai & Robbins, 1985; Auer et al., 2002; Even-dar et al., 2006, for example). It can be regarded as a repeated game between two players, with every stage consisting of the following: The world chooses k rewards r1 , ..., rk ? [0, 1]; the player chooses an arm i ? {1, k} without knowledge of the world?s chosen rewards, and then observes the reward ri . The contextual bandits setting considered in this paper is the same except for a modification of the first step, in which the player also observes context information x which can be used to determine which arm to pull. The contextual bandits problem has many applications and is often more suitable than the standard bandits problem, because settings with no context information are rare in practice. The setting considered in this paper is directly motivated by the problem of matching ads to web-page contents on the internet. In this problem, a number of ads (arms) are available to be placed on a number of web-pages (context information). Each page visit can be regarded as a random draw of the context information (one may also include the visitor?s online profile as context information if available) from an underlying distribution that is not controlled by the player. A certain amount of revenue is generated when the visitor clicks on an ad. The goal is to put the most relevant ad on each page to maximize the expected revenue. Although one may potentially put multiple ads on each web-page, we focus on the problem that only one ad is placed on each page (which is like pulling an arm given context information). The more precise definition is given in Section 2. Prior Work. The problem of bandits with context has been analyzed previously (Pandey et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2005), typically under additional assumptions such as a correct prior or knowledge of the relationship between the arms. This problem is also known as associative reinforcement learning (Strehl et al., 2006, for example) or bandits with side information. A few results under as weak or weaker assumptions are directly comparable. 1. The Exp4 algorithm (Auer et al., 1995) notably makes no assumptions about the world. Epoch-Greedy has a worse regret bound in T (O(T 2/3 ) rather than O(T 1/2 )) and is only 1 analyzed under an IID assumption. An important advantage of Epoch-Greedy is a much better dependence on the size of the set of predictors. In the situation where the number of predictors is infinite but with finite VC-Dimension d, Exp4 has a vacuous regret bound while Epoch-Greedy has a regret bound no worse than O(T 2/3 (ln m)1/3 ). Sometimes we can achieve much better dependence on T , depending on the structure of the hypothesis space. For example, we will show that it is possible to achieve O(ln T ) regret bound using Epoch-Greedy, while this is not possible with Exp4 or any simple modification of it. Another substantial advantage is reduced computational complexity. The ERM step in Epoch-Greedy can be replaced with any standard learning algorithm that achieves approximate loss minimization, making guarantees that degrade gracefully with the approximation factor. Exp4 on the other hand requires computation proportional to the explicit count of hypotheses in a hypothesis space. 2. The random trajectories method (Kearns et al., 2000) for learning policies in reinforcement learning with hard horizon T = 1 is essentially the same setting. In this paper, bounds are stated for a batch oriented setting where examples are formed and then used for choosing a hypothesis. Epoch-Greedy takes advantage of this idea, but it also has analysis which states that it trades off the number of exploration and exploitation steps so as to maximize the sum of rewards incurred during both exploration and exploitation. What we do. We present and analyze the Epoch-Greedy algorithm for multiarmed bandits with context. This has all the nice properties stated in the abstract, resulting in a practical algorithm for solving this problem. The paper is broken up into the following sections. 1. In Section 2 we present basic definitions and background. 2. Section 3 presents the Epoch-Greedy algorithm along with a regret bound analysis which holds without knowledge of T . 3. Section 4 analyzes the instantiation of the Epoch-Greedy algorithm in several settings. 2 Contextual bandits We first formally define contextual bandit problems and algorithms to solve them. Definition 2.1 (Contextual bandit problem) In a contextual bandits problem, there is a distribution P over (x, r1 , ..., rk ), where x is context, a ? {1, . . . , k} is one of the k arms to be pulled, and ra ? [0, 1] is the reward for arm a. The problem is a repeated game: on each round, a sample (x, r1 , ..., rk ) is drawn from P , the context x is announced, and then for precisely one arm a chosen by the player, its reward ra is revealed. Definition 2.2 (Contextual bandit algorithm) A contextual bandits algorithm B determines an arm a ? {1, . . . , k} to pull at each time step t, based on the previous observation sequence (x1 , a1 , ra,1 ), . . . , (xt?1 , at?1 , ra,t?1 ), and the current context xt . PT Our goal is to maximize the expected total reward t=1 E(xt ,~rt )?P [ra,t ]. Note that we use the notation ra,t = rat to improve readability. Similar to supervised learning, we assume that we are given a set H consisting of hypotheses h : X ? {1, . . . , k}. Each hypothesis maps side information x to an arm a. A natural goal is to choose arms to compete with the best hypothesis in H. We introduce the following definition. Definition 2.3 (Regret) The expected reward of a hypothesis h is   R(h) = E(x,~r)?D rh(x) . Consider any contextual bandits algorithm B. Let Z T = {(x1 , ~r1 ), . . . , (xT , ~rT )}, and the expected regret of B with respect to a hypothesis h be: ?R(B, h, T ) = T R(h) ? EZ T ?P T T X t=1 2 rB(x),t . The expected regret of B up to time T with respect to hypothesis space H is defined as ?R(B, H, T ) = sup ?R(B, h, T ). h?H The main challenge of the contextual bandits problem is that when we pull an arm, rewards of other arms are not observed. Therefore it is necessary to try all arms (explore) in order to form an accurate estimation. In this context, methods we investigate in the paper make explicit distinctions between exploration and exploitation steps. In an exploration step, the goal is to form unbiased samples by randomly pulling all arms to improve the accuracy of learning. Because it does not focus on the best arm, this step leads to large immediate regret but can potentially reduce regret for the future exploitation steps. In an exploitation step, the learning algorithm suggests the best hypothesis learned from the samples formed in the exploration steps, and the arm given by the hypothesis is pulled: the goal is to maximize immediate reward (or minimize immediate regret). Since the samples in the exploitation steps are biased (toward the arm suggested by the learning algorithm using previous exploration samples), we do not use them to learn the hypothesis for the future steps. That is, in methods we consider, exploitation does not help us to improve learning accuracy for the future. More specifically, in an exploration step, in order to form unbiased samples, we pull an arm a ? {1, . . . , k} uniformly at random. Therefore the expected regret comparing to the best hypothesis in H can be as large as O(1). In an exploitation step, the expected regret can be much smaller. Therefore a central theme we examine in this paper is to balance the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, so as to achieve a small overall expected regret up to some time horizon T . Note that if we decide to pull a specific arm a with side information x, we do not observe rewards ra0 for a0 6= a. In order to apply standard sample complexity analysis, we first show that exploration samples, where a is picked uniformly at random, can create a standard learning problem without missing observations. This is simply achieved by setting fully observed rewards r0 such that ra0 0 (ra ) = kI(a0 = a)ra , (1) where I(?) is the indicator function. The basic idea behind this transformation from partially observed to fully observed data dates back to the analysis of ?Sample Selection Bias? (Heckman, 1979). The above rule is easily generalized to other distribution over actions p(a) by replacing k with 1/p(a). The following lemma shows that this method of filling missing reward components is unbiased. 0 Lemma 2.1 For all arms a0 : E~r?P |x [ra0 ] = E~r?P h|x,a?U (1,...,k) i [ra0 (ra )]. Therefore for any hy- 0 pothesis h(x), we have R(h) = E(x,~r)?P,a?U (1,...,k) rh(x) (ra ) . Proof We have: E~r?P |x,a?U (1,...,k) [ra0 0 (ra )] =E~r?P |x k X k ?1 [ra0 0 (ra )] a=1 =E~r?P |x k X k ?1 [kra I(a0 = a)] = E~r?P |x [ra0 ] . a=1 Lemma 2.1 implies that we can estimate reward R(h) of any hypothesis h(x) using expectation with respectP to exploration samples (x, a, ra ). The right hand side can then be replaced by empirical samples as t I(h(xt ) = at )ra,t for hypotheses in a hypothesis space H. The quality of this estimation can be obtained with uniform convergence learning bounds. 3 Exploration with the Epoch-Greedy algorithm The problem of treating contextual bandits as standard bandits is that the information in x is lost. That is, the optimal arm to pull should be a function of the context x, but this is not captured by the 3 standard bandits setting. An alternative approach is to regard each hypothesis h as a separate artificial ?arm?, and then apply a standard bandits algorithm to these artificial arms. Using this approach, let m be the number of hypotheses, we can get a bound of O(m). However, this solution ignores the fact that many hypotheses can share the same arm so that choosing an arm yields information for many hypotheses. For this reason, with a simple algorithm, we can get a bound that depends on m logarithmically, instead of O(m) as would be the case for the standard bandits solution discussed above. As discussed earlier, the key issue in the algorithm is to determine when to explore and when to exploit, so as to achieve appropriate balance. If we are given the time horizon T in advance, and would like to optimize performance with the given T , then it is always advantageous to perform a first phase of exploration steps, followed by a second phase of exploitation steps (until time step T ). The reason that there is no advantage to take any exploitation step before the last exploration step is: by switching the two steps, we can more accurately pick the optimal hypothesis in the exploitation step due to more samples from exploration. With fixed T , assume that we have taken n steps of exploration, and obtain an average regret bound of n for each exploitation step at the point, then we can bound the regret of the exploration phase as n, and the exploitation phase as n (T ? n). The total regret is n + (T ? n)n . Using this bound, we shall switch from exploration to exploitation at the point n that minimizes the sum. Without knowing T in advance, but with the same generalization bound, we can run exploration/exploitation in epochs, where at the beginning of each epoch `, we perform one step of exploration, followed by d1/n e steps of exploitation. We then start the next epoch. After epoch L, the PL total average regret is no more than n=1 (1 + n d1/n e) ? 3L. Moreover, the epoch L? containing T is no more than the optimal regret bound minn [n + (T ? n)n ] (with known T and optimal stopping point). Therefore the performance of our method (which does not need to know T ) is no worse than three time the optimal bound with known T and optimal stopping point. This motivates a modified algorithm in Figure 1. The idea described above is related to forcing in (Lai & Yakowitz, 1995). Proposition 3.1 Consider a sequence of nonnegative and monotone non-increasing numbers {n }. PL Let L? = min{L : `=1 (1 + d1/` e) ? T }, then L? ? min [n + (T ? n)n ]. n?[0,T ] Proof Let n? = arg minn?[0,T ] [n + (T ? n)n ]. The bound is trivial if n? ? L? . We only PL? ?1 need consider the case n? ? L? ? 1. By assumption, `=1 (1 + 1/` ) ? T ? 1. Since PL? ?1 PL? ?1 , we have L 1/ ? 1/ ? (L ? n )1/ ? ? 1 + (L? ? n? )1/n? ? T ? 1. ` ` ? ? n? `=1 `=n? Rearranging, we have L? ? n? + (T ? L? )n? . In Figure 1, s(Z1n ) is a sample-dependent (integer valued) exploitation step count. Proposition 3.1 suggests that choosing s(Z1n ) = d1/n (Z1n )e, where n (Z1n ) is a sample dependent average generalization bound, yields performance comparable to the optimal bound with known time horizon T. Definition 3.1 (Epoch-Greedy Exploitation Cost) Consider a hypothesis space H consisting of hypotheses that take values in {1, 2, . . . , k}. Let Zt = (xt , at , ra,t ) for i = 1, . . . , n be independent random samples, where ai is uniform randomly distributed in {1, . . . , k}, and ra,t ? [0, 1] is the observed (random) reward. Let Z1n = {Z1 , . . . , Zn }, and the empirical reward maximization estimator n X n ? h(Z1 ) = arg max ra,t I(h(xt ) = at ). h?H t=1 Given any fixed n, ? ? [0, 1], and observation Z1n , we denote by s(Z1n ) a data-dependent exploitation step count. Then the per-epoch exploitation cost is defined as:   ? n )) s(Z n ). ?n (H, s) = EZ1n sup R(h) ? R(h(Z 1 1 h?H 4 Epoch-Greedy (s(W` )) /*parameter s(W` ): exploitation steps*/ initialize: exploration samples W0 = {} and t1 = 1 iterate ` = 1, 2, . . . t = t` , and observe xt /*do one-step exploration*/ select an arm at ? {1, . . . , k} uniformly at random receive reward ra,t ? [0, 1] W` = W`?1 ? {(xt , at , ra,t )} ? ` ? H by solving find best hypothesis h P maxh?H (x,a,ra )?W` ra I(h(x) = a) t`+1 = t` + s(W` ) + 1 for t = t` + 1, ? ? ? , t`+1 ? 1 /*do s(W` )-steps exploitation*/ ? ` (xt ) select arm at = h receive reward ra,t ? [0, 1] end for end iterate Figure 1: Exploration by -greedy in epochs Theorem 3.1 For all T, n` , L such that: T ? L + in Figure 1 is bounded by ?R(Epoch-Greedy, H, T ) ? L + L X PL `=1 n` , the expected regret of Epoch-Greedy ?` (H, s) + T `=1 L X P [s(Z1` ) < n` ]. `=1 This theorem statement is very general, because we want to allow sample dependent bounds to be used. When sample-independent bounds are used the following simple corollary holds: Corollary 3.1 Assume we choose s(Z1` ) = s` ? b1/?` (H, 1)c (` = 1, . . .), and let LT = PL arg minL {L : L + `=1 s` ? T }. Then the expected regret of Epoch-Greedy in Figure 1 is bounded by ?R(Epoch-Greedy, H, T ) ? 2LT . Proof (of the main theorem) Let B be the Epoch-Greedy algorithm. One of the following events will occur: ? A: s(Z1` ) < n` for some ` = 1, . . . , L. ? B: s(Z1` ) ? n` for all ` = 1, . . . , L. If event A occurs, then since each reward is in [0,1], up to time T , regret cannot be larger than T . Thus the total expected contribution of A to the regret ?R(B, H, T ) is at most T P (A) ? T L X P [s(Z1` ) < n` ]. (2) `=1 If event B occurs, then t`+1 ? t` ? n` + 1 for ` = 1, . . . , L, and thus tL+1 > T . Therefore the expected contribution of B to the regret ?R(B, H, T ) is at most the sum of expected regret in the first L epochs. By definition and construction, after the first step of epoch `, W` consists of ` random observations Zj = (xj , aj , ra,j ) where aj is drawn uniformly at random from {1, . . . , k}, and j = 1, . . . , `. This is independent of the number of exploitation steps before epoch `. Therefore we can treat W` as ` independent samples. This means that the expected regret associated with exploitation steps in epoch ` is ?` (H, s). Since the exploration step in each epoch contributes at most 1 to the 5 expected regret, the total expected regret for each epoch ` is at most 1 + ?` (H, s). Therefore the PL total expected regret for epochs ` = 1, . . . , L is at most L + `=1 ?` (H, s). Combined with (2), we obtain the desired bound. In the theorem, we bound the expected regret of each exploration step by one. Clearly this assumes the worst case scenario and can often be improved. Some consequences of the theorem with specific function classes are given in Section 4. 4 Examples Theorem 3.1 is quite general. In this section, we present a few simple examples to illustrate the potential applications. 4.1 Finite hypothesis space worst case bound Consider the finite hypothesis space situation, with m = |H| < ?. We apply Theorem 3.1 with a worst-case deviation bound. Let x1 , . . . , xn ? [0, k] be iid random variables, such that Exi ? 1, then Bernstein inequality implies that there exists a constant c0 > 0 such that ?? ? (0, 1), with probability 1 ? ?: v u n n n X X X p u Ex2i + c0 k ln(1/?) ? c0 nk ln(1/?) + c0 k ln(1/?). xi ? Exi ? c0 tln(1/?) i=1 i=1 i=1 It follows that there exists a universal constant c > 0 such that p ?n (H, 1) ? c?1 k ln m/n. Therefore in Figure 1, if we choose s(Z1` ) = bc p `/(k ln m)c, then ?` (H, s) ? 1: this is consistent with the choice recommended in Proposition 3.1. In order to obtain a performance bound of this scheme using Theorem 3.1, we can simply take p n` = bc `/(k ln m)c. This implies that P (s(Z1` ) < n` ) = 0. Moreover, with this choice, for any T , we can pick an L that PL satisfies the condition T ? `=1 n` . It implies that there exists a universal constant c0 > 0 such that for any given T , we can take L = bc0 T 2/3 (k ln m)1/3 c in Theorem 3.1. p In summary, if we choose s(Z1` ) = bc `/(k ln m)c in Figure 1, then ?(Epoch-Greedy, H, T ) ? 2L ? 2c0 T 2/3 (k ln m)1/3 . Reducing the problem to standard bandits, as discussed at the beginning of Section 3, leads to a bound of O(m ln T ) (Lai & Robbins, 1985; Auer et al., 2002). Therefore when m is large, the Epoch-Greedy algorithm in Figure 1 can perform significantly better. In this particular situation, ? Epoch-Greedy does not do as well as Exp4 in (Auer et al., 1995), which implies a regret of O( kT ln m). However, the advantage of Epoch-Greedy is that any learning bound can be applied. For many hypothesis classes, the ln m factor can be improved for Epoch-Greedy. In fact, a similar result can be obtained for classes with infinitely many hypotheses but finite VC dimensions. Moreover, as we will see next, under additional assumptions, it is possible to obtain much better bounds in terms of T for Epoch-Greedy, such as O(k ln m + k ln T ). This extends the classical O(ln T ) bound for standard bandits, and is not possible to achieve using Exp4 or simple variations of it. 6 4.2 Finite hypothesis space with unknown expected reward gap This example illustrates the importance of allowing sample-dependent s(Z1` ). We still assume a finite hypothesis space, with m = |H| < ?. However, we would like to improve the performance bound by imposing additional assumptions. In particular we note that the standard bandits problem has regret of the form O(ln T ) while in the worst case, our method for the contextual bandits problem has regret O(T 2/3 ). A natural question is then: what are the assumptions we can impose so that the Epoch-Greedy algorithm can have a regret of the form O(ln T ). The main technical reason that the standard bandits problem has regret O(ln T ) is that the expected reward of the best bandit and that of the second best bandit has a gap: the constant hidden in the O(ln T ) bound depends on this gap, and the bound becomes trivial (infinity) when the gap approaches zero. In this example we show that a similar assumption for contextual bandits problems leads to a similar regret bound of O(ln T ) for the Epoch-Greedy algorithm. Let H = {h1 , . . . , hm }, and assume without loss of generality that R(h1 ) ? R(h2 ) ? ? ? ? ? R(hm ). Suppose that we know that R(h1 ) ? R(h2 ) + ? for some ? > 0, but the value of ? is not known in advance. Although ? is not known, it can be estimated from the data Z1n . Let the empirical reward of h ? H be n kX n ? R(h|Z ) = ra,t I(h(xt ) = at ). 1 n t=1 ? 1 be the hypothesis with highest empirical reward on Z n , and h ? 2 be the hypothesis with second Let h 1 highest empirical reward. We define the empirical gap as ? 1 |Z n ) ? R( ? 2 |Z n ). ? 1n ) = R( ? h ? h ?(Z 1 1 ? 1 6= Let h1 be the hypothesis with the highest true expected reward, then we suffer a regret when h h1 . Again, the standard large deviation bound implies that there exists a universal constant c > 0 such that for all j ? 1: ? 1 6= h1 ) ?me?ck?1 n(1+j 2 )?2 ? 1n ) ? (j ? 1)?, h P (?(Z ? 1n ) ? 0.5?) ?me?ck P (?(Z Now we can set s(Z1n ) = bm?1 e(2k) such that ?1 ? n )2 cn?(Z 1 ?1 n?2 . c. With this choice, there exists a constant c0 > 0 d??1 e X ?n (H, s) ? ? 1 6= h1 ) ? 1n ) ? j?}P (?(Z ? 1n ) ? [(j ? 1)?, j?], h sup{s(Z1n ) : ?(Z j=1 d??1 e X ? m?1 e(2k) ?1 cnj 2 ?2 ? 1 6= h1 ) ? 1n ) ? [(j ? 1)?, j?], h P (?(Z j=1 d??1 e X ? ?1 cnj 2 ?2 ?ck?1 n(1+j 2 )?2 ?1 n(0.5j 2 +1)?2 e(2k) j=1 d??1 e X ? e?ck j=1 0 ?c p ?1 2 k/n??1 e?ck n? . There exists a constant c00 > 0 such that for any L: L X `=1 ?` (H, s) ?L + c0 ? p X ?1 2 k/`??1 e?ck `? `=1 ?L + c00 k??2 . 7 Now, consider any time horizon T . If we set n` = 0 when ` < L, nL = T , and   8k(ln m + ln(T + 1)) , L= c?2 then ? 1L ) ? 0.5?) ? me?ck P (s(Z1L ) ? nL ) ? P (?(Z That is, if we choose s(Z1n ) = bm?1 e(2k) ?1 ?1 L?2 ? 1/T. ? n )2 cn?(Z 1 ?R(Epoch-Greedy, H, T ) ? 2L + 1 + c00 k??2 c in Figure 1, then   8k(ln m + ln(T + 1)) ?2 + 1 + c00 k??2 . c?2 The regret for this choice is O(ln T ), which is better than O(T 2/3 ) of Section 4.1. However, the constant depends on the gap ? which can be small. It is possible to combine the two strategies (that ? n ) is small) and obtain bounds that not only work is, use the s(Z1n ) choice of Section 4.1 when ?(Z 1 well when the gap ? is large, but also not much worse than the bound of Section 4.1 when ? is small. As a special case, we can apply the method in this section to solve the standard bandits problem. The O(k ln T ) bound of the Epoch-Greedy method matches those more specialized algorithms for the standard bandits problem, although our algorithm has a larger constant. 5 Conclusion We consider a generalization of the multi-armed bandits problem, where observable context can be used to determine which arm to pull and investigate the sample complexity of the exploration/exploitation trade-off for the Epoch-Greedy algorithm. The Epoch-Greedy algorithm analysis leaves one important open problem behind. Epoch-Greedy is much better at dealing with large hypothesis spaces or hypothesis spaces with special structures due to its ability to employ any data-dependent sample complexity bound. However, for finite hypothesis space, in the worst case scenario, Exp4 has better dependency on T . In such situations, it?s possible that a better designed algorithm can achieve both strengths. References Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., & Fischer, P. (2002). Finite time analysis of the multi-armed bandit problem. Machine Learning, 47, 235?256. Auer, P., Cesa-Bianchi, N., Freund, Y., & Schapire, R. E. (1995). Gambling in a rigged casino: The adversarial multi-armed bandit problem. FOCS. Even-dar, E., Mannor, S., & Mansour, Y. (2006). Action elimination and stopping conditions for the multi-armed bandit and reinforcement learning problems. JMLR, 7, 1079?1105. Heckman, J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47, 153?161. Kearns, M., Mansour, Y., & Ng, A. Y. (2000). 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Stable Dual Dynamic Programming Tao Wang? Daniel Lizotte Michael Bowling Dale Schuurmans Department of Computing Science University of Alberta {trysi,dlizotte,bowling,dale}@cs.ualberta.ca Abstract Recently, we have introduced a novel approach to dynamic programming and reinforcement learning that is based on maintaining explicit representations of stationary distributions instead of value functions. In this paper, we investigate the convergence properties of these dual algorithms both theoretically and empirically, and show how they can be scaled up by incorporating function approximation. 1 Introduction Value function representations are dominant in algorithms for dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL). However, linear programming (LP) methods clearly demonstrate that the value function is not a necessary concept for solving sequential decision making problems. In LP methods, value functions only correspond to the primal formulation of the problem, while in the dual they are replaced by the notion of state (or state-action) visit distributions [1, 2, 3]. Despite the well known LP duality, dual representations have not been widely explored in DP and RL. Recently, we have showed that it is entirely possible to solve DP and RL problems in the dual representation [4]. Unfortunately, [4] did not analyze the convergence properties nor implement the proposed ideas. In this paper, we investigate the convergence properties of these newly proposed dual solution techniques, and show how they can be scaled up by incorporating function approximation. The proof techniques we use to analyze convergence are simple, but lead to useful conclusions. In particular, we find that the standard convergence results for value based approaches also apply to the dual case, even in the presence of function approximation and off-policy updating. The dual approach appears to hold an advantage over the standard primal view of DP/RL in one major sense: since the fundamental objects being represented are normalized probability distributions (i.e., belong to a bounded simplex), dual updates cannot diverge. In particular, we find that dual updates converge (i.e. avoid oscillation) in the very circumstance where primal updates can and often do diverge: gradient-based off-policy updates with linear function approximation [5, 6]. 2 Preliminaries We consider the problem of computing an optimal behavior strategy in a Markov decision process (MDP), defined by a set of actions A, a set of states S, a |S||A| by |S| transition matrix P , a reward vector r and a discount factor ?, where we assume P? thet goal is to maximize the infinite horizon discounted reward r0 + ?r1 + ? 2 r2 + ? ? ? = t=0 ? rt . It is known that an optimal behavior strategy can always be expressed by a stationary policy, whose entries ? (sa) specify the probability of taking action a in state s. Below, we represent a policy ? by an equivalent representation as an |S| ? |S||A| matrix ? where ?(s,s0 a) = ? (sa) if s0 = s, otherwise 0. One can quickly verify that the matrix product ?P gives the state-to-state transition probabilities induced by the policy ? in the environment P , and that P ? gives the state-action to state-action transition probabilities induced by policy ? in P . The problem is to compute an optimal policy given either (a) a complete ? Current affiliation: Computer Sciences Laboratory, Australian National University, [email protected]. specification of the environmental variables P and r (the ?planning problem?), or (b) limited access to the environment through observed states and rewards and the ability to select actions to cause further state transitions (the ?learning problem?). The first problem is normally tackled by LP or DP methods, and the second by RL methods. In this paper, we will restrict our attention to scenario (a). 3 Dual Representations Traditionally, DP methods for solving the MDP planning problem are typically expressed in terms of the primal value function. However, [4] demonstrated that all the classical algorithms have natural duals expressed in terms of state and state-action probability distributions. In the primalP representation, the policy state-action value function can be specified by an |S||A|?1 ? i i vector q = i=0 ? (P ?) r which satisfies q = r + ?P ?q. To develop a dual form of stateaction policy evaluation, one considers the linear system d> = (1 ? ?)? > + ?d> P ?, where ? is the initial distribution over state-action pairs. Not only is d a proper probability distribution over state-action pairs, it also allows one to easily compute the expected discounted return of the policy ?. However, recovering the state-action distribution d is inadequate for policy improvement. Therefore, one considers the following |S||A| ? |S||A| matrix H = (1 ? ?)I + ?P ?H. The matrix H that satisfies this linear relation is similar to d> , in that each row is a probability distribution and the entries H(sa,s0 a0 ) correspond to the probability of discounted state-action visits to (s0 a0 ) for a policy ? starting in state-action pair (sa). Unlike d> , however, H drops the dependence on ?, giving (1 ? ?)q = Hr. That is, given H we can easily recover the state-action values of ?. For policy improvement, in the primal representation one can derive an improved policy ? 0 via the update a? (s) = arg maxa q(sa) and ? 0(sa) = 1 if a = a? (s), otherwise 0. The dual form of the policy update can be expressed in terms of the state-action matrix H for ? is a ? (s) = arg maxa H(sa,:) r. In fact, since (1 ? ?)q = Hr, the two policy updates given in the primal and dual respectively, must lead to the same resulting policy ? 0 . Further details are given in [4]. 4 DP algorithms and convergence We first investigate whether dynamic programming operators with the dual representations exhibit the same (or better) convergence properties to their primal counterparts. These questions will be answered in the affirmative. In the tabular case, dynamic programming algorithms can be expressed by operators that are successively applied to current approximations (vectors in the primal case, matrices in the dual), to bring them closer to a target solution; namely, the fixed point of a desired Bellman equation. Consider two standard operators, the on-policy update and the max-policy update. For a given policy ?, the on-policy operator O is defined as Oq = r + ?P ?q and OH = (1 ? ?)I + ?P ?H, for the primal and dual cases respectively. The goal of the on-policy update is to bring current representations closer to satisfying the policy-specific Bellman equations, q = r + ?P ?q and H = (1 ? ?)I + ?P ?H The max-policy operator M is different in that it is neither linear nor defined by any reference policy, but instead applies a greedy max update to the current approximations Mq = r + ?P ?? [q] and MH = (1 ? ?)I + ?P ??r [H], ? ? where ? [q](s) = maxa q(sa) and ?r [H](s,:) = H(sa0 (s),:) such that a0 (s) = arg maxa [Hr](sa) . The goal of this greedy update is to bring the representations closer to satisfying the optimal-policy Bellman equations q = r + ?P ?? [q] and H = (1 ? ?)I + ?P ??r [H]. 4.1 On-policy convergence For the on-policy operator O, convergence to the Bellman fixed point is easily proved in the primal case, by establishing a contraction property of O with respect to a specific norm on q vectors. In particular, one defines a weighted 2-norm with weights given by the stationary distribution determined by the policy ? and transition model P : Let z ? 0 be a vector such that z> P ? = z> ; that is, z is the stationary state-action visit distribution for P ?. Then the norm is defined as P 2 kqkz = q> Zq = (sa) z(sa) q2(sa) , where Z = diag(z). It can be shown that kP ?qkz ? kqkz and kOq1 ? Oq2 kz ? ?kq1 ? q2 kz (see [7]). Crucially, for this norm, a state-action transition is not an expansion [7]. By the contraction map fixed point theorem [2] there exists a unique fixed point of O in the space of vectors q. Therefore, repeated applications of the on-policy operator converge to a vector q? such that q? = Oq? ; that is, q? satisfies the policy based Bellman equation. Analogously, for the dual representation H, one can establish convergence of the on-policy operator by first defining an approximate weighted norm over matrices and then verifying that O is a contraction with respect to this norm. Define X X 2 2 kHkz,r = kHrkz = z(sa) ( H(sa,s0 a0 ) r(s0 a0 ) )2 (1) (sa) (s0 a0 ) It is easily verified that this definition satisfies the property of a pseudo-norm, and in particular, satisfies the triangle inequality. This weighted 2-norm is defined with respect to the stationary distribution z, but also the reward vector r. Thus, the magnitude of a row normalized matrix is determined by the magnitude of the weighted reward expectations it induces. Interestingly, this definition allows us to establish the same non-expansion and contraction results as the primal case. We can have kP ?Hkz,r ? kHkz,r by arguments similar to the primal case. Moreover, the on-policy operator is a contraction with respect to k?kz,r . Lemma 1 kOH1 ? OH2 kz,r ? ?kH1 ? H2 kz,r Proof: kOH1 ? OH2 kz,r = ?kP ?(H1 ? H2 )kz,r ? ?kH1 ? H2 kz,r since kP ?Hkz,r ? kHkz,r . Thus, once again by the contraction map fixed point theorem there exists a fixed point of O among row normalized matrices H, and repeated applications of O will converge to a matrix H ? such that OH? = H? ; that is, H? satisfies the policy based Bellman equation for dual representations. This argument shows that on-policy dynamic programming converges in the dual representation, without making direct reference to the primal case. We will use these results below. 4.2 Max-policy convergence The strategy for establishing convergence for the nonlinear max operator is similar to the on-policy case, but involves working with a different norm. Instead of considering a 2-norm weighted by the visit probabilities induced by a fixed policy, one simply uses the max-norm in this case: kqk ? = max(sa) |q(sa) |. The contraction property of the M operator with respect to this norm can then be easily established in the primal case: kMq1 ? Mq2 k? ? ?kq1 ? q2 k? (see [2]). As in the on-policy case, contraction suffices to establish the existence of a unique fixed point of M among vectors q, and that repeated application of M converges to this fixed point q? such that Mq? = q? . To establish convergence of the off-policy update in the dual representation, first define the maxnorm for state-action visit distribution as X kHk? = max | H(sa,s0 a0 ) r(s0 a0 ) | (2) (sa) (s0 a0 ) Then one can simply reduce the dual to the primal case by appealing to the relationship (1??)Mq = MHr to prove convergence of MH. Lemma 2 If (1??)q = Hr, then (1??)Mq = MHr. Proof: (1??)Mq = (1??)r+?P ?? [(1??)q]) = (1??)r+?P ?? [Hr] = (1??)r+?P ??r [H]r = MHr where the second equality holds since we assumed (1 ? ?)q(sa) = [Hr](sa) for all (sa). Thus, given convergence of Mq to a fixed point Mq? = q? , the same must also hold for MH. However, one subtlety here is that the dual fixed point is not unique. This is not a contradiction because the norm on dual representations k?kz,r is in fact just a pseudo-norm, not a proper norm. That is, the relationship between H and q is many to one, and several matrices can correspond to the same q. These matrices form a convex subspace (in fact, a simplex), since if H 1 r = (1 ? ?)q and H2 r = (1 ? ?)q then (?H1 + (1 ? ?)H2 )r = (1 ? ?)q for any ?, where furthermore ? must be restricted to 0 ? ? ? 1 to maintain nonnegativity. The simplex of fixed points {H ? : MH? = H? } is given by matrices H? that satisfy H? r = (1 ? ?)q? . 5 DP with function approximation Primal and dual updates exhibit strong equivalence in the tabular case, as they should. However, when we begin to consider approximation, differences emerge. We next consider the convergence properties of the dynamic programming operators in the context of linear basis approximation. We focus on the on-policy case here, because, famously, the max operator does not always have a fixed point when combined with approximation in the primal case [8], and consequently suffers the risk of divergence [5, 6]. Note that the max operator cannot diverge in the dual case, even with basis approximation, by boundedness alone; although the question of whether max updates always converge in this case remains open. Here we establish that a similar bound on approximation error in the primal case can be proved for the dual approach with respect to the on-policy operator. In the primal case, linear approximation proceeds by fixing a small set of basis functions, forming a |S||A|?k matrix ?, where k is the number of bases. The approximation of q can be expressed ? = ?w where w is a k ?1 vector of adjustable weights. This is by a linear combination of bases q ? ? col span(?). In the dual, a linear approximation equivalent to maintaining the constraint that q ? = ?w, where the vec operator creates a column vector from to H can be expressed as vec(H) a matrix by stacking the column vectors of the matrix below one another, w is a k ? 1 vector of adjustable weights as it is in the primal case, and ? is a (|S||A|)2 ? k matrix of basis functions. ? remains a nonnegative, row normalized approximation to H, we simply add the To ensure that H ? ? simplex(?) ? {H ? : vec(H) ? = ?w, ? ? 0,(1>?I)? = 11> ,w ? 0, w> 1 = 1} constraints that H where the operator ? is the Kronecker product. In this section, we first introduce operators (projection and gradient step operators) that ensure the approximations stay representable in the given basis. Then we consider their composition with the on-policy and off-policy updates, and analyze their convergence properties. For the composition of the on-policy update and projection operators, we establish a similar bound on approximation error in the dual case as in the primal case. 5.1 Projection Operator Recall that in the primal, the action value function q is approximated by a linear combination of bases in ?. Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect Oq or Mq to stay in the column span of ?, so a best approximation is required. The subtlety resolved by Tsitsiklis and Van Roy [7] is to identify a particular form of best approximation?weighted least squares?that ensures convergence is still achieved when combined with the on-policy operator O. Unfortunately, the fixed point of this combined update operator is not guaranteed to be the best representable approximation of O?s fixed point, q? . Nevertheless, a bound can be proved on how close this altered fixed point is to the best representable approximation. We summarize a few details that will be useful below: First, the best least squares approximation is computed with respect to the distribution z. The map from a general q vector onto its best approximation in col span(?) is defined by another operator, P, which projects q into the column span of ? kz 2 = ?(?> Z?)?1 ?> Zq, where q ? is an approximation for ?, Pq = argminq? ?col span(?) kq ? q value function q. The important property of this weighted projection is that it is a non-expansion operator in k?kz , i.e., kPqkz ? kqkz , which can be easily obtained from the generalized Pythagorean theorem. Approximate dynamic programming then proceeds by composing the two operators?the on-policy update O with the subspace projection P?to compute the best representable approximation of the one step update. This combined operator is guaranteed to converge, since composing a 1 non-expansion with a contraction is still a contraction, i.e., kq+ ? q? kz ? 1?? kq? ? Pq? kz [7]. Linear function approximation in the dual case is a bit more complicated because matrices are being represented, not vectors, and moreover the matrices need to satisfy row normalization and nonnegativity constraints. Nevertheless, a very similar approach to the primal case can be successfully applied. Recall that in the dual, the state-action visit distribution H is approximated by a linear combination of bases in ?. As in the primal case, there is no reason to expect that an update like OH should keep the matrix in the simplex. Therefore, a projection operator must be constructed that determines the best representable approximation to OH. One needs to be careful to define this projection with respect to the right norm to ensure convergence. Here, the pseudo-norm k?k z,r defined in Equation 1 suits this purpose. Define the weighted projection operator P over matrices ? z,r2 PH = argmin kH ? Hk (3) ? H?simplex(?) The projection could be obtained by solving the above quadratic program. A key result is that this projection operator is a non-expansion with respect to the pseudo-norm k?k z,r . Theorem 1 kPHkz,r ? kHkz,r Proof: The easiest way to prove the theorem is to observe that the projection operator P is really a composition of three orthogonal projections: first, onto the linear subspace span(?), then onto the subspace of row normalized matrices span(?) ? {H : H1 = 1}, and finally onto the space of nonnegative matrices span(?) ? {H : H1 = 1} ? {H : H ? 0}. Note that the last projection into the nonnegative halfspace is equivalent to a projection into a linear subspace for some hyperplane tangent to the simplex. Each one of these projections is a non-expansion in k?k z,r in the same way: a generalized Pythagorean theorem holds. Consider just one of these linear projections P 1 2 2 2 kHkz,r = kP1 H + H ? P1 Hkz,r = kP1 Hr + Hr ? P1 Hrkz 2 2 2 2 = kP1 Hrkz + kHr ? P1 Hrkz = kP1 Hkz,r + kH ? P1 Hkz,r Since the overall projection is just a composition of non-expansions, it must be a non-expansion. As in the primal, approximate dynamic programming can be implemented by composing the onpolicy update O with the projection operator P. Since O is a contraction and P a non-expansion, PO must also be a contraction, and it then follows that it has a fixed point. Note that, as in the tabular case, this fixed point is only unique up to Hr-equivalence, since the pseudo-norm k?k z,r does not distinguish H1 and H2 such that H1 r = H2 r. Here too, the fixed point is actually a simplex of equivalent solutions. For simplicity, we denote the simplex of fixed points for PO by some representative H+ = POH+ . Finally, we can recover an approximation bound that is analogous to the primal bound, which bounds the approximation error between H+ and the best representable approximation to the on-policy fixed point H? = OH? . Theorem 2 kH+ ? H? kz,r ? 1 1?? kPH? ? H? kz,r Proof: First note that kH+ ?H? kz,r = kH+ ?PH? +PH? ?H? kz,r ? kH+ ?PH? kz,r + kPH? ?H? kz,r by generalized Pythagorean theorem. Then since H+ = POH+ and P is a non-expansion operator, we have kH+ ?PH? kz,r = kPOH+ ?PH? kz,r ? kOH+ ?H? kz,r . Finally, using H? = OH? and Lemma 1, we obtain kOH+ ?H? kz,r = kOH+ ?OH? kz,r ? ?kH+ ?H? kz,r . Thus (1??)kH+ ?H? kz,r ? kPH? ?H? kz,r . To compare the primal and dual results, note that despite the similarity of the bounds, the projection operators do not preserve the tight relationship between primal and dual updates. That is, even if (1??)q = Hr and (1??)(Oq) = (OH)r, it is not true in general that (1??)(POq) = (POH)r. The most obvious difference comes from the fact that in the dual, the space of H matrices has bounded diameter, whereas in the primal, the space of q vectors has unbounded diameter in the natural norms. Automatically, the dual updates cannot diverge with compositions like PO and PM; yet, in the primal case, the update PM is known to not have fixed points in some circumstances [8]. 5.2 Gradient Operator In large scale problems one does not normally have the luxury of computing full dynamic programming updates that evaluate complete expectations over the entire domain, since this requires knowing the stationary visit distribution z for P ? (essentially requiring one to know the model of the MDP). Moreover, full least squares projections are usually not practical to compute. A key intermediate step toward practical DP and RL algorithms is to formulate gradient step operators that only approximate full projections. Conveniently, the gradient update and projection operators are independent of the on-policy and off-policy updates and can be applied in either case. However, as we will see below, the gradient update operator causes significant instability in the off-policy update, to the degree that divergence is a common phenomenon (much more so than with full projections). Composing approximation with an off-policy update (max operator) in the primal case can be very dangerous. All other operator combinations are better behaved in practice, and even those that are not known to converge usually behave reasonably. Unfortunately, composing the gradient step with an off-policy update is a common algorithm attempted in reinforcement learning (Q-learning with function approximation), despite being the most unstable. In the dual representation, one can derive a gradient update operator in a similar way to the primal, except that it is important to maintain the constraints on the parameters w, since the basis functions are probability distributions. We start by considering the projection objective 1 ? z,r 2 subject to vec(H) ? = ?w, w ? 0, w> 1 = 1 JH = kH ? Hk 2 The unconstrained gradient of the above objective with respect to w is ? ? h) ?w JH = ?> (r> ?I)> Z(r> ?I)(?w ? h) = ?> Z(r> ?I)(h ? = vec(H). ? where ? = (r> ? I)?, h = vec(H), and h However, this gradient step cannot be followed directly because we need to maintain the constraints. The constraint w > 1 = 1 can be maintained by first projecting the gradient onto it, obtaining ?w = (I ? k1 11> )?w JH . Thus, the weight vector can be updated by 1 ? ? h) wt+1 = wt ? ??w = wt ? ?(I ? 11> )?> Z(r> ? I)(h k where ? is a step-size parameter. Then the gradient operator can then be defined by ? ? ???w = h ? ? ??(I ? 1 11> )?> Z(r> ? I)(h ? ? h) Gh? h = h k (Note that to further respect the box constraints, 0 ? h ? 1, the stepsize might need to be reduced and additional equality constraints might have to be imposed on some of the components of h that are at the boundary values.) Similarly as in the primal, since the target vector H (i.e., h) is determined by the underlying dynamic programming update, this gives the composed updates ? = h ? ? ??(I ? 1 11> )?>Z(r> ?I)(h?O ? ? and GOh h) k ? = h ? ? ??(I ? 1 11> )?>(r> ?I)(h?M ? ? GMh h) k respectively for the on-policy and off-policy cases (ignoring the additional equality constraints). Thus far, the dual approach appears to hold an advantage over the standard primal approach, since convergence holds in every circumstance where the primal updates converge, and yet the dual updates are guaranteed never to diverge because the fundamental objects being represented are normalized probability distributions (i.e., belong to a bounded simplex). We now investigate the convergence properties of the various updates empirically. 6 Experimental Results To investigate the effectiveness of the dual representations, we conducted experiments on various domains, including randomly synthesized MDPs, Baird?s star problem [5], and on the mountain car problem. The randomly synthesized MDP domains allow us to test the general properties of the algorithms. The star problem is perhaps the most-cited example of a problem where Q-learning with linear function approximation diverges [5], and the mountain car domain has been prone to divergence with some primal representations [9] although successful results were reported when bases are selected by sparse tile coding [10]. For each problem domain, twelve algorithms were run over 100 repeats with a horizon of 1000 steps. The algorithms were: tabular on-policy (O), projection on-policy (PO), gradient on-policy (GO), tabular off-policy (M), projection off-policy (PM), and gradient off-policy (GM), for both the primal and the dual. The discount factor was set to ? = 0.9. For on-policy algorithms, we measure the difference between the values generated by the algorithms and those generated by the analytically determined fixed-point. For off-policy algorithms, we measure the difference between the values generated by the resulting policy and the values of the optimal policy. The step size for the gradient updates was 0.1 for primal representations and 100 for dual representations. The initial values of state-action value functions q are set according to the standard normal distribution, and state-action visit distributions H are chosen uniformly randomly with row normalization. Since the goal is to investigate the convergence of the algorithms without carefully crafting features, we also choose random basis functions according to a standard normal distribution for the primal representations, and random basis distributions according to a uniform distribution for the dual representations. Randomly Synthesized MDPs. For the synthesized MDPs, we generated the transition and reward functions of the MDPs randomly?the transition function is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 and the reward function is drawn from a standard normal. Here we only reported the results of random MDPs with 100 states, 5 actions, and 10 bases, observed consistent convergence of the dual representations on a variety of MDPs, with different numbers of states, actions, and bases. In Figure 1(right), the curve for the gradient off-policy update (GM) in the primal case (dotted line with the circle marker) blows up (diverges), while all the other algorithms in Figure 1 converge. Interestingly, the approximate error of the dual algorithm POH (4.60?10?3 ) is much smaller than the approximate error of the corresponding primal algorithm POq (4.23?10 ?2 ), even though their theoretical bounds are the same (see Figure 1(left)). On?Policy Update on Random MDPs Off?Policy Update on Random MDPs 10 10 10 10 Oq Mq PMq G Oq Difference from Reference Point Difference from Reference Point POq 5 10 OH POH G OH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 G Mq 5 10 MH PMH G MH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 10 1000 100 200 300 Number of Steps 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Number of Steps Figure 1: Updates of state-action value q and visit distribution H on randomly synthesized MDPs The Star Problem. The star problem has 7 states and 2 actions. The reward function is zero for each transition. In these experiments, we used the same fixed policy and linear value function approximation as in [5]. In the dual, the number of bases is also set to 14 and the initial values of the state-action visit distribution matrix H are uniformly distributed random numbers between 0 and 1 with row normalization. The gradient off-policy update in the primal case diverges (see the dotted line with the circle marker in Figure 2(right)). However, all the updates with the dual representation algorithms converge. On?Policy Update on Star Problem Off?Policy Update on Star Problem 10 10 10 10 Oq Mq PMq G Oq Difference from Reference Point Difference from Reference Point POq 5 10 OH POH G OH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 G Mq 5 10 MH PMH G MH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 100 200 300 400 500 600 Number of Steps 700 800 900 1000 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Number of Steps Figure 2: Updates of state-action value q and visit distribution H on the star problem 900 1000 The Mountain Car Problem The mountain car domain has continuous state and action spaces, which we discretized with a simple grid, resulting in an MDP with 222 states and 3 actions. The number of bases was chosen to be 5 for both the primal and dual algorithms. For the same reason as before, we chose the bases for the algorithms randomly. In the primal representations with linear function approximation, we randomly generated basis functions according to the standard normal distribution. In the dual representations, we randomly picked the basis distributions according to the uniform distribution. In Figure 3(right), we again observed divergence of the gradient off-policy update on state-action values in the primal, and the convergence of all the dual algorithms (see Figure 3). Again, the approximation error of the projected on-policy update POH in the dual (1.90?10 1 ) is also considerably smaller than POq (3.26?102 ) in the primal. On?Policy Update on Mountain Car Off?Policy Update on Mountain Car 10 10 10 10 Oq Mq PMq G Oq Difference from Reference Point Difference from Reference Point POq 5 10 OH POH G OH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 10 G Mq 5 10 MH PMH G MH 0 10 ?5 10 ?10 100 200 300 400 500 600 Number of Steps 700 800 900 1000 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Number of Steps Figure 3: Updates of state-action value q and visit distribution H on the mountain car problem 7 Conclusion Dual representations maintain an explicit representation of visit distributions as opposed to value functions [4]. We extended the dual dynamic programming algorithms with linear function approximation, and studied the convergence properties of the dual algorithms for planning in MDPs. We demonstrated that dual algorithms, since they are based on estimating normalized probability distributions rather than unbounded value functions, avoid divergence even in the presence of approximation and off-policy updates. Moreover, dual algorithms remain stable in situations where standard value function estimation diverges. References [1] M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Dynamic Programming. Wiley, 1994. [2] D. Bertsekas. Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, volume 2. Athena Scientific, 1995. [3] D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-Dynamic Programming. Athena Scientific, 1996. [4] T. Wang, M. Bowling, and D. Schuurmans. Dual representations for dynamic programming and reinforcement learning. In Proceeding of the IEEE International Symposium on ADPRL, pages 44?51, 2007. [5] L. C. Baird. Residual algorithms: Reinforcement learning with function approximation. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 30?37, 1995. [6] R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press, 1998. [7] J. Tsitsiklis and B. Van Roy. An analysis of temporal-difference learning with function approximation. IEEE Trans. Automat. Control, 42(5):674?690, 1997. [8] D. de Farias and B. Van Roy. On the existence of fixed points for approximate value iteration and temporal-difference learning. J. Optimization Theory and Applic., 105(3):589?608, 2000. [9] J. A. Boyan and A. W. Moore. Generalization in reinforcement learning: Safely approximating the value function. In NIPS 7, pages 369?376, 1995. [10] R. S. Sutton. Generalization in reinforcement learning: Successful examples using sparse coarse coding. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, pages 1038?1044, 1996.
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Evaluation of Adaptive Mixtures of Competing Experts Steven J. Nowlan and Geoffrey E. Hinton Computer Science Dept. University of Toronto Toronto, ONT M5S 1A4 Abstract We compare the performance of the modular architecture, composed of competing expert networks, suggested by Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan and Hinton (1991) to the performance of a single back-propagation network on a complex, but low-dimensional, vowel recognition task. Simulations reveal that this system is capable of uncovering interesting decompositions in a complex task. The type of decomposition is strongly influenced by the nature of the input to the gating network that decides which expert to use for each case. The modular architecture also exhibits consistently better generalization on many variations of the task. 1 Introduction If back-propagation is used to train a single, multilayer network to perform different subtasks on different occasions, there will generally be strong interference effects which lead to slow learning and poor generalization. If we know in advance that a set of training cases may be naturally divideJ into subsets that correspond to distinct subtasks, interference can be reduced by using a system (see Fig. 1) composed of several different "expert" networks plus a gating network that decides which of the experts should be used for each training case. Systems of this type have been suggested by a number of authors (Hampshire and Waibel, 1989; Jacobs, Jordan and Barto, 1990; Jacobs et al., 1991) (see also the paper by Jacobs and Jordan in this volume (1991?. Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan and Hinton (1991) show that this system can be trained by performing gradient descent 774 Evaluation of Adaptive Mixtures of Competing Experts -10 O2 Expert 1 t Expert 2 x1 x 2 x3 Expert 3 Gating Network t Intut~ Input Figure 1: A system of expert and gating networks. Each expert is a feedforward network and all experts receive the same input and have the same number of outputs. The gating network is also feedforward and may receive a different input than the expert networks. It has normalized outputs Pj exp(xj)/ L:i exp(xd, where Xj is the total weighted input received by output unit j of the gating network. Pj can be viewed as the probability of selecting expert j for a particular case. = in the following error function: E C = _logLvie-lIdc-o,cIl2/2Q'2 (1) where E C is the error on training case c, pi is the output of the gating network for expert i, lc is the desired output vector and o{ is the output vector of expert i, and u is constant. The error defined by Equation 1 is simply the negative log probability of generating the desired output vector under a mixture of gaussians model of the probability distribution of possible output vectors given the current input. The output vector of each expert specifies the mean of a multidimensional gaussian distribution. These means are a function of the inputs to the experts. The outputs of the gating network specify the mixing proportions of the experts, so these too are determined by the current input. During learning, the gradient descent in E has two effects. It raises the mixing proportion of experts that do better than average in predicting the desired output vector for a particular case, and it also makes each expert better at predicting the desired output for those cases for which it has a high mixing proportion. The result of these two effects is that, after learning, the gating network nearly always assigns a mixing proportion near 1 to one expert on each case. So towards the end of the learning, each expert can focus on modelling the cases it is good at without interference from the cases for which it has a negligible mixing proportion. 775 776 Nowlan and Hinton In this paper, we compare mixtures of experts to single back-propagation networks on a vowel recognition task. We demonstrate that the mixtures are better at fitting the training data and better at generalizing than comparable single backpropagation networks. 2 Data and Experimental Procedures The data used in these experiments consisted of the frequencies of the first and second formants for 10 vowels from 75 speakers (32 Males, 28 Females, and 15 Children) (Peterson and Barney, 1952).1 The vowels, which were uttered in an hVd context, were {heed, hid, head, had, hud, hod, hawed, hood, who'd, heard}. The word list was repeated twice by each speaker, with the words in a different random order for each presentation. The resulting spectrograms were hand segmented and the frequencies of the formants extracted from the middle portion of the vowel. The simulations were performed using a conjugate gradient technique, with one weight change after each pass through the training set. For the back-propagation experiments, each simulation was initialised randomly with weight values in the range [-0.5,0.5]. For the mixture systems, the last layer of weights in the gating network was always initialised to 0 so that all experts initially had equal a priori selection probabilities, Pi,k, while all other weights in the gating and expert networks were initialized randomly with values in the range [-0.5,0.5] to break symmetry. The value of u used was 0.25 for all of the mixture simulations. In all cases, the input formant values were linearly scaled by dividing them by 1000, so the first formant was in the range (0,1.5) and the second was in the range (0,4). Two sets of experiments were performed: one in which the performance of different systems on the training data was compared and a second in which the ability of different systems to generalize was compared. Five different types of input were used in each set of experiments: 1. Frequencies of first and second formants only (Form.). 2. Form. plus a localist encoding of the speaker identity (Form. + Speaker ID). 3. Form. plus a localist encoding of whether the speaker was a male, female, or child (Form. + MFC). 4. Form. plus the minimum and maximum frequency for the first and second formant (as real values) over all samples from the speaker (Form. + Range). 5. Form. + MFC + Range. For the simulations in which a single back-propagation network was used the network received the entire set of input values. However, for the mixture systems the expert networks saw only the formant frequencies, while the gating network saw everything but the formant frequencies (except of course when the input consisted only of the formant frequencies). 1 Obtained, with thanks, from Ray Watrous, who originally obtained the data from Ann Syrdal at AT&T Bell Labs. Evaluation of Adaptive Mixtures of Competing Experts Type of Input Form. Form. + Speaker ID Form. + MFC Form. + MFC + Range Form. + Range # Experts 20 10 10 10 10 # Hid per Expert 3-5 25 25 25 25 # Hid Gating 10 0 0 5 5 Table 1: Summary of mixture architecture used with each type of input. Type of Input Formants only Form. + Speaker ID Form. + MFC Form. + MFC + Range Form. + Range Mixture Error % 13.9 ? 0.9 4.6 ? 0.7 13.0 ? 0.4 5.6 ? 0.6 11.6 ? 0.9 BP Error % 21.8 ? 0.6 6.2 ? 0.6 15.4 ? 0.3 13.1 ? 1.0 13.5 ? 0.4 Sig.(p) ? 0.9999 > 0.97 ? 0.9999 ~ 0.9999 > 0.998 Table 2: Performance comparison of associative mixture systems and single backpropagation networks on vowel classification task. Results reported are based on an average over 25 simulations for each back-propagation network or mixture system. The BP networks used in the single network simulations contained one layer of hidden units. 2 In the mixture systems, the expert networks also contained one layer of hidden units although the number of hidden units in each expert varied. The gating network in some cases contained hidden units, while in other cases it did not (see Table 1). Further details of the simulations may be found in (Nowlan, 1991). 3 Results of Performance Studies In the set of performance experiments, each system was trained with the entire set of 1494 tokens until the magnitude of the gradient vector was < 10- 8 . The error rate (as percent of total cases) was evaluated on the training data (generalization studies are described in the next section). The very high degree of class overlap in this task makes it extremely difficult to find good solutions with a gradient descent procedure and this is reflected by the far from optimal average performance of all systems on the training data (see Table 2). For purposes of comparison, the best performance ever obtained on this vowel data using speaker dependant classification methods is about 2.5% (Gerstman, 1968; Watrous, 1990). Table 2 reveals that in every case the mixture system performs significantly better 3 than a single network given the same input. The most striking, and interesting, 2The number of hidden units was selected by performing a number of initial simulations with different numbers of hidden units for each network and choosing the smallest number which gave near optimal performance. These numbers were 50, 150, 60, 150, and 80 respectively for the five types of input listed above. 3Based on a t-test with 48 degrees of freedom. 777 778 Nowlan and Hinton Spec. 0 4 5 7 8 9 # % Male % Female % Child % Total 0.0 3.1 84.4 9.4 3.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 17.8 7.1 42.9 28.6 6.7 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 86.7 1.3 2.7 42.7 8.0 17.3 28.0 Table 3: Speaker decomposition in terms of Male, Female and Child categories for a mixture with speaker identity as input to the gating network. result in Table 2 is contained in the fourth row of the table. While the associative mixture architecture is able to combine the two separate cues of MFC categories and speaker formant range quite effectively, the single back-propagation network fails to do so. The combination of these two different cues in the associative mixture system was obtained by a hierarchical training procedure in which three different experts were first created using the MFC cue alone, and copies of these networks were further specialized when the formant range cue was added to the input received by the gating network (see (Nowlan, 1990; Nowlan, 1991) for details). Since the single back-propagation network is much less modular than the associative mixture system, it is difficult to implement such a hierarchical training procedure in the single network case. (A variety of techniques were explored and details may again be found in (Nowlan, 1991).) Another interesting aspect of the mixture systems, not revealed in Table 2, is the manner in which the training cases were divided among the different expert networks. Once the network was trained, the training cases were clustered by assigning each case to the expert that was selected most strongly by the gating network. The mixture which used only the formant frequencies as input to both the gating and expert networks tended to cluster training cases according to the position of the tongue hump when the vowel is uttered. In all simulations, the four front vowels were always clustered together and handled by a single expert. The low back and high back vowels also tended to be grouped together, but each of these groups was divided among several experts and not always in exactly the same way. The mixture which received speaker identity as well as formant frequencies as input tended to group speakers roughly according to the categories male, female, and child. A typical grouping of speakers by the mixture is shown in Table 3. 4 Results of Generalization Studies In the set of generalization experiments, for all but the input which contained the speaker identity, each system was trained on data from 65 speakers until the magnitude of the gradient vector was < 10- 4 . The performance was then tested on the data from the 10 speakers not in the training set. Twenty different test sets were created by leaving out different speakers for each, and results are an average over one simulation with each of the test sets. Each test set consisted of 4 male, 3 Evaluation of Adaptive Mixtures of Competing Experts Type of Input Formants only Form. + Speaker ID Form. + MFC Form. + MFC + Range Form. + Range Mixture Error % 15.1 ? 0.9 6.4 ? 1.3 13.5 ? 0.6 6.2 ? 0.9 12.8 ? 0.9 BP Error % 23.3 ? 1.2 18.4 ? 1.1 16.1 ? 1.0 16.2 ? 0.8 Sig.(p) 0.9999 0.9999 ? 0.9999 ~ 0.9999 > 0.9999 ~ ~ Table 4: Generalization comparison of associative mixture systems and single backpropagation networks on vowel classification task. Results reported are based on an average over 20 simulations for each back- propagation network or mixture system. female and 3 child speakers. The generalization tests for the mixture in which speaker identity was part of the input used a different testing strategy. In this case, the training set consisted of 70 speakers and the testing set contained the remaining 5 speakers (2 male, 2 female, 1 child). Again, results are averaged over 20 different testing sets. After the mixture was trained, an expert was selected for each test speaker using one utterance of each of the first 3 vowels, and the performance of the selected expert was tested on the remaining 17 utterances of that speaker. No generalization results are reported for the single back-propagation network which received the speaker identity as well as the first and second formant values, since there is no straightforward way to perform rapid speaker adaptation with this architecture. (See Watrous (Watrous, 1990) for some approaches to speaker adaptation in single networks.) The percentage of misclassifications on the test set for the mixture systems and corresponding single back-propagation networks are summarized in Table 4, and in all cases the mixture system generalizes significantly better 4 than a single network. The relatively poor generalization performance of the single back-propagation networks is not due to overfitting on the training data because the single backpropagation networks perform worse on the training data than the mixture systems on the test data. Also, the associative mixture systems initially contained even more parameters than the corresponding back-propagation networks. (The associative mixture which received formant range data for gating input initially contained almost 3600 parameters, while the corresponding single back-propagation network contained only slightly more than 1200 parameters.) Part of the explanation for the good generalization performance of the mixt ures is the pruning of excess parameters as the system is trained. The number of effective parameters in the final mixture is very often less than half the number in the original system, because a large number of experts have negligible mixing proportions in the final mixture. 5 Discussion The mixture systems outperform single back-propagation networks which receive the same input, and show much better generalization properties when forced to deal with relatively small training sets . In addition, the mixtures can easily be 4Based on a t-test with 38 degrees of freedom. 779 780 Nowlan and Hinton refined hierarchically by learning a few experts and then making several copies of each and adding additional contextual input to the gating network. The best performance for either single networks or mixture systems is obtained by including the speaker identity as part of the input. When given such input, the mixture systems are capable of discovering speaker categories which give levels of classification performance close to those obtained by speaker dependent classification schemes. Good performance can also be obtained on novel speakers by determining which existing speaker category the new speaker is most similar to (using a small number oflabelled utterances). If, instead, the speaker is represented in terms of features such as male, female, child, and formant range, the mixtures also exhibit good generalization to novel speakers described in terms of these features. Acknow ledgements This research was supported by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, the Ontario Information Technology Research Center, and Apple Computer Inc. Hinton is the Norand a fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. References Gerstman, L. J. (1968). Classification of self-normalized vowels. IEEE Trans. on Audio and Electroacoustics, AU-16(1 ):78-80. Hampshire, J. and Waibel, A. (1989). The Meta-Pi network: Building distributed knowledge representations for robust pattern recognition. Technical Report CMU-CS-89-166, Carnegie-Mellon, Pittsburgh, PA. Jacobs, R. A. and Jordan, M. I. (1991). A competitive modular connectionist architecture. In Touretzky, D. S., editor, Neural Information Processing Systems 3. Morgan Kauffman, San Mateo, CA. Jacobs, R. A., Jordan, M. I., and Barto, A. G. (1990). Task decomposition through competition in a modular connectionist architecture: The what and where vision tasks. Cognitive Science. In Press. Jacobs, R. A., Jordan, M. I., Nowlan, S. J., and Hinton, G. E. (1991). Adaptive mixtures of local experts. Neural Computation, 3(1). Nowlan, S. J. (1990). Competing experts: An experimental investigation of asssociative mixture models. Technical Report CRG-TR-90-5, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto. Nowlan, S. J. (1991). Soft Competitive Adaptation: Neural Network Learning Algorithms based on Fitting Statistical Mixtures. PhD thesis, School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. Peterson, G. E. and Barney, H. L. (1952). Control methods used in a study of vowels. The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 24:175-184. Watrous, R. L. (1990). Speaker normalization and adaptation using second order connectionist networks. Technical Report CRG-TR-90-6, University of Toronto.
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How SVMs can estimate quantiles and the median Ingo Steinwart Information Sciences Group CCS-3 Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA [email protected] Andreas Christmann Department of Mathematics Vrije Universiteit Brussel B-1050 Brussels, Belgium [email protected] Abstract We investigate quantile regression based on the pinball loss and the ?-insensitive loss. For the pinball loss a condition on the data-generating distribution P is given that ensures that the conditional quantiles are approximated with respect to k ? k1 . This result is then used to derive an oracle inequality for an SVM based on the pinball loss. Moreover, we show that SVMs based on the ?-insensitive loss estimate the conditional median only under certain conditions on P . 1 Introduction Let P be a distribution on X ? Y , where X is an arbitrary set and Y ? R is closed. The goal of quantile regression is to estimate the conditional quantile, i.e., the set valued function    ? F?,P (x) := t ? R : P (??, t] | x ? ? and P [t, ?) | x ? 1 ? ? , x ? X, where ? ? (0, 1) is a fixed constant and P( ? | x), x ? X, is the (regular) conditional probability. For conceptual simplicity (though mathematically this is not necessary) we assume throughout this paper ? ? that F?,P (x) consists of singletons, i.e., there exists a function f?,P : X ? R, called the conditional ? ? ? -quantile function, such that F?,P (x) = {f?,P (x)}, x ? X. Let us now consider the so-called ? -pinball loss L? : R ? R ? [0, ?) defined by L? (y, t) := ?? (y ? t), where ?? (r) = (? ? 1)r, if r < 0, and ?? (r) = ? r, if r ? 0. Moreover, given a (measurable) function f : X ? R we define the ? L? -risk of f by RL? ,P (f ) := E(x,y)?P L? (y, f (x)). Now recall that f?,P is up to zero sets the only ? function that minimizes the L? -risk, i.e. RL? ,P (f?,P ) = inf RL? ,P (f ) =: R?L? ,P , where the infimum is taken over all f : X ? R. Based on this observation several estimators minimizing a (modified) empirical L? -risk were proposed (see [5] for a survey on both parametric and non-parametric methods) for situations where P is unknown, but i.i.d. samples D := ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )) drawn from P are given. In particular, [6, 4, 10] proposed an SVM that finds a solution fD,? ? H of n 1X arg min ?kf k2H + L? (yi , f (xi )) , (1) f ?H n i=1 where ? > 0 is a regularization parameter and H is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) over X. Note that this optimization problem can be solved by considering the dual problem [4, 10], but since this technique is nowadays standard in machine learning we omit the details. Moreover, [10] contains an exhaustive empirical study as well some theoretical considerations. Empirical methods estimating quantiles with the help of the pinball loss typically obtain functions fD for which RL? ,P (fD ) is close to R?L? ,P with high probability. However, in general this only ? implies that fD is close to f?,P in a very weak sense (see [7, Remark 3.18]), and hence there is so far only little justification for using fD as an estimate of the quantile function. Our goal is to address this issue by showing that under certain realistic assumptions on P we have an inequality of the form q ? (2) kf ? f?,P kL1 (PX ) ? cP RL? ,P (f ) ? R?L? ,P . We then use this inequality to establish an oracle inequality for SVMs defined by (1). In addition, we illustrate how this oracle inequality can be used to obtain learning rates and to justify a datadependent method for finding the hyper-parameter ? and H. Finally, we generalize the methods for establishing (2) to investigate the role of ? in the ?-insensitive loss used in standard SVM regression. 2 Main results In the following X is an arbitrary, non-empty set equipped with a ?-algebra, and Y ? R is a closed non-empty set. Given a distribution P on X ? Y we further assume throughout this paper that the ?-algebra on X is complete with respect to the marginal distribution PX of P, i.e., every subset of a PX -zero set is contained in the ?-algebra. Since the latter can always be ensured by increasing the original ?-algebra in a suitable manner we note that this is not a restriction at all. Definition 2.1 A distribution Q on R is said to have a ? -quantile of type ? > 0 if there exists a ? -quantile t? ? R and a constant cQ > 0 such that for all s ? [0, ?] we have   Q (t? , t? + s) ? cQ s and Q (t? ? s, t? ) ? cQ s . (3) It is not difficult to see that a distribution Q having a ? -quantile of some type ? has a unique ? quantile t? . Moreover, if Q has a Lebesgue density hQ then Q has a ? -quantile of type ? if hQ is bounded away from zero on [t? ??, t? +?] since we can use cQ := inf{hQ (t) : t ? [t? ??, t? +?]} in (3). This assumption is general enough to cover many distributions used in parametric statistics such as Gaussian, Student?s t, and logistic distributions (with Y = R), Gamma and log-normal distributions (with Y = [0, ?)), and uniform and Beta distributions (with Y = [0, 1]). The following definition describes distributions on X ? Y whose conditional distributions P( ? |x), x ? X, have the same ? -quantile type ?. Definition 2.2 Let p ? (0, ?], ? ? (0, 1), and ? > 0. A distribution P on X ?Y is said to have a ? -quantile of p-average type ?, if Qx := P( ? |x) has PX -almost surely a ? -quantile type ? and b : X ? (0, ?) defined by b(x) := cP( ? |x) , where cP( ? |x) is the constant in (3), satisfies b?1 ? Lp (PX ). Let us now give some examples for distributions having ? -quantiles of p-average type ?. Example 2.3 Let P be a distribution on X ? R with marginal distribution PX and regular condi tional probability Qx (??, y] := 1/(1+e?z ), y ? R, where z := y?m(x) /?(x), m : X ? R describes a location shift, and ? : X ? [?, 1/?] describes a scale modification for some constant ? ? (0, 1]. Let us further assume that the functions m and ? are measurable. Thus Qx is a logistic distribution having the positive and bounded Lebesgue density hQx (y) = e?z /(1 + e?z )2 , y ? R. ? ? The ? -quantile function is t? (x) := f?,Q = m(x) + ?(x) log( 1?? ), x ? X, and we can choose x ? ? b(x) = inf{hQx (t) : t ? [t (x) ? ?, t (x) + ?]}. Note that hQx (m(x) + y) = hQx (m(x) ? y) for all y ? R, and hQx (y) is strictly decreasing for y ? [m(x), ?). Some calculations show n u (x)  u2 (x) o  1 1 b(x) = min hQx (t? (x)??), hQx (t? (x)+?) = min , ? c , , ?,? (1+u1 (x))2 (1+u2 (x))2 4 ??/?(x) ?/?(x) where u1 (x) := 1?? , u2 (x) := 1?? and c?,? > 0 can be chosen independent of x, ? e ? e ?1 because ?(x) ? [?, 1/?]. Hence b ? L? (PX ) and P has a ? -quantile of ?-average type ?. ? be a distribution on X ? Y with marginal distribution P ? X and regular conExample 2.4 Let P ? ? ? ? X -almost surely ditional probability Qx := P(? | x) on Y . Furthermore, assume that Qx is P of ? -quantile type ?. Let us now consider the family of distributions P with marginal distribu  ? X and regular conditional distributions Qx := P ? (? ? m(x))/?(x) x , x ? X, where tion P m : X ? R and ? : X ? (?, 1/?) are as in the previous example. Then Qx has a ? -quantile ? ? f?,Q = m(x) + ?(x)f?, ? x of type ??, because we obtain for s ? [0, ??] the inequality x Q   ? ? ? x (f ? ? , f ? ? + s/?(x)) ? b(x)s/?(x) ? b(x)?s . Qx (f?,Q , f?,Q + s) = Q x x ?,Qx ?,Qx ? does have a ? -quantile of Consequently, P has a ? -quantile of p-average type ?? if and only if P p-average type ?. The following theorem shows that for distributions having a quantile of p-average type the conditional quantile can be estimated by functions that approximately minimize the pinball risk. p Theorem 2.5 Let p ? (0, ?], ? ? (0, 1), ? > 0 be real numbers, and q := p+1 . Moreover, let P be a distribution on X ? Y that has a ? -quantile of p-average type ?. Then for all f : X ? R p+2 2p satisfying RL? ,P (f ) ? R?L? ,P ? 2? p+1 ? p+1 we have q ? 1/2 ? kf ? f?,P kLq (PX ) ? 2 kb?1 kLp (PX ) RL? ,P (f ) ? R?L? ,P . Our next goal is to establish an oracle inequality for SVMs defined by (1). To this end let us assume Y = [?1, 1]. Then we have L? (y, t?) ? L? (y, t) for all y ? Y , t ? R, where t? denotes t clipped to the interval [?1, 1], i.e., t? := max{?1, min{1, t}}. Since this yields RL? ,P (f?) ? RL? ,P (f ) for all functions f : X ? R we will focus on clipped functions f? in the following. To describe the approximation error of SVMs we need the approximation error function A(?) := inf f ?H ?kf k2H + RL? ,P (f ) ? R?L? ,P , ? > 0. Recall that [8] showed lim??0 A(?) = 0 if the RKHS H is dense in L1 (PX ). We also need the covering numbers which for ? > 0 are defined by   N BH , ?, L2 (?) := min n ? 1 : ? x1 , . . . , xn ? L2 (?) with BH ? ?ni=1 (xi + ?BL2 (?) ) , (4) where ? is a distribution on X, and BH and BL2 (?) denote the closed unit balls ofH and the Hilbert space L2 (?), respectively. Given a finite sequence D = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xn , yn )) ? (X ? Y )n we write DX := (x1 , . . . , xn ), and N (BH , ?, L2 (DX )) := N (BH , ?, L2 (?)) if ? is the empirical measure defined by DX . Finally, we write L? ? f for the function (x, y) 7? L? (y, f (x)). With these preparations we can now recall the following oracle inequality shown in more generality in [9]. Theorem 2.6 Let P be a distribution on X ?[?1, 1] for which there exist constants v ? 1, ? ? [0, 1] with 2 ? ? ? EP L? ? f? ? L? ? f?,P ? v EP (L? ? f? ? L? ? f?,P ) (5) for all f : X ? R. Moreover, let H be a RKHS over X for which there exist ? ? (0, 1) and a ? 1 with  sup log N BH , ?, L2 (DX ) ? a??2? , ? > 0. (6) D?(X?Y )n Then there exists a constant K?,v depending only on ? and v such that for all ? ? 1, n ? 1, and ? > 0 we have with probability not less than 1 ? 3e?? that r 1   1  32v?  2?? K?,v a 2??+?(??1) K?,v a A(?) ? ? ? RL? ,P (fD,? ) ? RL? ,P ? 8A(?) + 30 + + 5 + . ? n ?? n ?? n n Moreover, [9] showed that oracle inequalities of the above type can be used to establish learning rates and to investigate data-dependent parameter selection strategies. For example if we assume that there exist constants c > 0 and ? ? (0, 1] such that A(?) ? c?? for all ? > 0 then RL? ,P (f?T,?n ) ? 2? converges to R?L? ,P with rate n?? where ? := min { ?(2??+?(??1))+? , ?+1 } and ?n = n??/? . Moreover, [9] shows that this rate can also be achieved by selecting ? in a data-dependent way with the help of a validation set. Let us now consider how these learning rates in terms of risks translate ? into rates for kf?T,? ? f?,P kLq (PX ) . To this end we assume that P has a ? -quantile of p-average type ? for ? ? (0, 1). Using the Lipschitz continuity of L? and Theorem 2.5 we then obtain 2 q/2 ? ? 2 ? ? ? ? q ? EP L? ?f??L? ?f?,P ? EP |f??f?,P | ? kf??f?,P k2?q ? EP |f ?f?,P | ? c RL? ,P (f )?RL? ,P p+2 2p for all f satisfying RL? ,P (f?)?R?L? ,P ? 2? p+1 ? p+1 , i.e. we have a variance bound (5) for ? := q/2 and clipped functions with small excess risk. Arguing carefully to handle the restriction on f? we ? then see that kf?T,? ? f?,P kLq (PX ) can converge as fast as n?? , where n o ? ? ? := min ?(4?q+?(q?2))+2? , ?+1 . To illustrate the latter let us assume that H is a Sobolev space W m (X) of order m ? N over X, where X is the unit ball in Rd . Recall from [3] that H satisfies (6) for ? := d/(2m) if m > d/2 and in this case H also consists of continuous functions. Furthermore, assume that we are in the ideal ? ? situation f?,P ? W m (X) which implies ? = 1. Then the learning rate for kf?T,? ? f?,P kLq (PX ) be?1/(4?q(1??)) ?2m/(6m+d) comes n , which for ?-average type distributions reduces to n ? n?1/3 . Let us finally investigate whether the ?-insensitive loss defined by L(y, t) := max{0, |y ? t| ? ?} for y, t ? R and fixed ? > 0, can be used to estimate the median, i.e. the (1/2)-quantile. Theorem 2.7 Let L be the ?-insensitive loss for some ? > 0 and P be a distribution on X ?R which ? has a unique median f1/2,P . Furthermore, assume that all conditional distributions P(?|x), x ? X, are atom-free, i.e. P({y}|x) = 0 for all y ? R, and symmetric, i.e. P(h(x)+A|x) = P(h(x)?A|x) for all measurable A ? R and a suitable function h : X ? R. If for the conditional distributions ? ? have a positive mass concentrated around f1/2,P ? ? then f1/2,P is the only minimizer of RL,P . Note that using [7] one can show that for distributions specified in the above theorem the ? SVM using the ?-insensitive loss approximates f1/2,P whenever the SVM is RL,P -consistent, ? i.e. RL,P (fT,? ) ? RL,P in probability, see [2]. More advanced results in the sense of Theorem 2.5 seem also possible, but are out of the scope of this paper. 3 Proofs Let us first recall some notions from [7] who investigated surrogate losses in general and the question how approximate risk minimizers approximate exact risk minimizers in particular. To this end let L : X ? Y ? R ? [0, ?) be a measurable function which we call a loss in the following. For a distribution P and an f : X ? R the L-risk is then defined by RL,P (f ) := E(x,y)?P L(x, y, f (x)), and, as usual, the Bayes L-risk, is denoted by R?L,P := inf RL,P (f ), where the infimum is taken over all (measurable) Rf : X ? R. In addition, given a distribution Q on Y the inner L-risks were defined by CL,Q,x (t) := Y L(x, y, t) dQ(y), x ? X, t ? R, and the minimal inner L-risks were denoted by ? CL,Q,x := inf CL,Q,x (t), x ? X, where the infimum is taken over all t ? R. Moreover, following [7] we usually omit the indexes x or Q if L is independent of x or y, respectively. Obviously, we have Z  RL,P (f ) = CL,P( ? |x),x f (x) dPX (x) , (7) X ? and [7, Theorem 3.2] further shows that x 7? CL,P( ? |x),x is measurable if Rthe ?-algebra on X is ? complete. In this case it was also shown that the intuitive formula R?L,P = X CL,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) holds, i.e. the Bayes L-risk is obtained by minimizing the inner risks and subsequently integrating with respect to the marginal distribution PX . Based on this observation the basic idea in [7] is to consider both steps it turned  separately. In particular, out that the sets of ?-approximate minimizers ? ML,Q,x (?) := t ? R : CL,Q,x (t) < CL,Q,x + ? , ? ? [0, ?], and the set of exact minimizers T ML,Q,x (0+ ) := ?>0 ML,Q,x (?) play a crucial role. As in [7] we again omit the subscripts x and Q in these definitions if L happens to be independent of x or y, respectively. Now assume we have two losses Ltar : X ? Y ? R ? [0, ?] and Lsur : X ? Y ? R ? [0, ?], and that our goal is to estimate the excess Ltar -risk by the excess Lsur -risk. This issue was investigated in [7], where the main device was the so-called calibration function ?max ( ? , Q, x) defined by ( inf t?R\MLtar ,Q,x (?) CLsur ,Q,x (t) ? CL? sur ,Q,x if CL? sur ,Q,x < ? , ?max (?, Q, x) := ? if CL? sur ,Q,x = ? , for all ? ? [0, ?]. In the following we sometimes write ?max,Ltar ,Lsur (?, Q, x) := ?max (?, Q, x) whenever we need to explicitly mention the target and surrogate losses. In addition, we follow our convention which omits x or Q whenever this is possible. Now recall that [7, Lemma 2.9] showed  ?max CLtar ,Q,x (t) ? CL? tar ,Q,x , Q, x ? CLsur ,Q,x (t) ? CL? sur ,Q,x , t?R (8) if both CL? tar ,Q,x < ? and CL? sur ,Q,x < ?. Before we use (8) to establish an inequality between the excess risks of Ltar and Lsur , we finally recall that the Fenchel-Legendre bi-conjugate g ?? : I ? [0, ?] of a function g : I ? [0, ?] defined on an interval I is the largest convex function h : I ? [0, ?] satisfying h ? g. In addition, we write g ?? (?) := limt?? g ?? (t) if I = [0, ?). With these preparations we can now establish the following generalization of [7, Theorem 2.18]. Theorem 3.1 Let P be a distribution on X ? Y with R?Ltar ,P < ? and R?Lsur ,P < ? and assume that there exist p ? (0, ?] and functions b : X ? [0, ?] and ? : [0, ?) ? [0, ?) such that and b ?1 ?max (?, P( ? |x), x) ? b(x) ?(?) , ? ? 0, x ? X, (9) p q ? Lp (PX ). Then for q := p+1 , ?? := ? : [0, ?) ? [0, ?), and all f : X ? R we have  q ???? RLtar ,P (f ) ? R?Ltar ,P ? kb?1 kqLp (PX ) RLsur ,P (f ) ? R?Lsur ,P . Proof: Let us first consider the case RLtar ,P (f ) < ?. Since ???? is convex and satisfies ???? (?) ? ? for all ? ? [0, ?) we see by Jensen?s inequality that ?(?) Z   ???? RLtar ,P (f ) ? R?Ltar ,P ? ?? CLtar ,P( ? |x),x (t) ? CL? tar ,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) (10) X Moreover, using (8) and (9) we obtain b(x) ? CLtar ,P( ? |x),x (t) ? CL? tar ,P( ? |x),x  ? CLsur ,P( ? |x),x (t) ? CL? sur ,P( ? |x),x ? and H?older?s inequality in the for PX -almost all x ? X and all t ? R. By (10), the definition of ?,  form of k ? kq ? k ? kp ? k ? k1 , we thus find that ???? RLtar ,P (f ) ? R?Ltar ,P is less than or equal to Z q/q ?q  q b(x) CLsur ,P( ? |x),x f (x) ? CL? sur ,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) X Z q/p Z q   ? b?p dPX CLsur ,P( ? |x),x f (x) ? CL? sur ,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) X X q ?1 q ? kb kLp (PX ) RLsur ,P (f ) ? R?Ltar ,P . Let us finally deal with the case RLtar ,P (f ) = ?. If ???? (?) = 0 there is nothing to prove and hence we assume ???? (?) > 0. Following the proof of [7, Theorem 2.13] we then see that there exist constants c1 , c2 ? (0, ?) satisfying t ? c1 ? ?? (t) + c2 for all t ? [0, ?]. From this we obtain Z  ? ? = RLtar ,P (f ) ? RLtar ,P ? c1 ???? CLtar ,P( ? |x),x (t) ? CL? tar ,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) + c2 X Z q ?q   ? c1 b(x) CLsur ,P( ? |x),x f (x) ? CL? sur ,P( ? |x),x dPX (x) + c2 , X where the last step is analogous to our considerations for RLtar ,P (f ) < ?. By b?1 ? Lp (PX ) and H?older?s inequality we then conclude RLsur ,P (f ) ? R?Lsur ,P = ?. Our next goal is to determine the inner risks and their minimizers for the pinball loss. To this end recall (see, e.g., [1, Theorem 23.8]) that given a distribution Q on R and a non-negative function g : X ? [0, ?) we have Z Z ? g dQ = 0 R Q(g ? s) ds . (11) Proposition 3.2 Let ? ? (0, 1) and Q be a distribution on R with CL? ? ,Q < ? and t? be a ? -quantile of Q. Then there exist q+ , q? ? [0, ?) with q+ + q? = Q({t? }), and for all t ? 0 we have Z t  ? ? CL? ,Q (t + t) ? CL? ,Q (t ) = tq+ + Q (t? , t? + s) ds , and (12) 0 Z t  CL? ,Q (t? ? t) ? CL? ,Q (t? ) = tq? + Q (t? ? s, t? ) ds . (13) 0 ? ? Proof: Let us consider the distribution Q(t ) defined by Q(t ) (A) := Q(t? + A) for all measurable ? A ? R. Then it is not hard to see that 0 is a ? -quantile of Q(t ) . Moreover, we obviously have CL? ,Q (t? + t) = CL? ,Q(t? ) (t) and hence we may assume without loss of generality that t? = 0. Then our assumptions together with Q((??, 0]) + Q([0, ?)) = 1 + Q({0}) yield ? ? Q((??, 0]) ? ? + Q({0}), i.e., there exists a q+ satisfying 0 ? q+ ? Q({0}) and Q((??, 0]) = ? + q+ . (14) Let us now compute the inner risks of L? . To this end we first assume t ? 0. Then we have Z Z Z (y ? t) dQ(y) = y dQ(y) ? tQ((??, t)) + y dQ(y) y<t y<0 0?y<t R R R and y?t (y ? t) dQ(y) = y?0 y dQ(y) ? tQ([t, ?)) ? 0?y<t y dQ(y) and hence we obtain Z Z CL? ,Q (t) = (? ? 1) (y ? t) dQ(y) + ? (y ? t) dQ(y) y<t y?t Z = CL? ,Q (0) ? ? t + tQ((??, 0)) + tQ([0, t)) ? y dQ(y) . 0?y<t Moreover, using (11) we find Z Z t Z t Z t tQ([0, t)) ? y dQ(y) = Q([0, t))ds ? Q([s, t)) ds = tQ({0}) + Q((0, s))ds , 0?y<t 0 0 0 and since (14) implies Q((??, 0)) + Q({0}) = Q((??, 0]) = ? + q+ we thus obtain (12). Now (13) can be derived from (12) by considering the pinball loss with parameter 1 ? ? and the ? defined by Q(A) ? distribution Q := Q(?A), A ? R measurable. This further yields a q? satisfying 0 ? q? ? Q({0}) and Q([0, ?) = 1 ? ? + q? . By (14) we then find q+ + q? = Q({0}). For the proof of Theorem 2.5 we recall a few more concepts from [7]. To this end let us now assume that our loss is independent of x, i.e. we consider a measurable function L : Y ? R ? [0, ?]. We write  Qmin (L) := Q ? Qmin (L) : ? t?L,Q ? R such that ML,Q (0+ ) = {t?L,Q } , i.e. Qmin (L) contains the distributions on Y whose inner L-risks have exactly one exact minimizer. ? Furthermore, note that this definition immediately yields CL,Q < ? for all Q ? Qmin (L). Following [7] we now define the self-calibration loss of L by ? L(Q, t) := |t ? t?L,Q | , Q ? Qmin (L), t ? R . (15) This loss is a so-called template loss in the sense of [7], i.e., for a given distribution P on X ? Y , where X has a complete ?-algebra and P( ? |x) ? Qmin (L) for PX -almost all x ? X, the P-instance ? P (x, t) := |t ? t? L L,P( ? |x) | is measurable and hence a loss. [7] extended the definition of inner risks ? to the self-calibration loss by setting CL,Q ? (t) := L(Q, t), and based on this the minimal inner risks and their (approximate) minimizers were defined in the obvious way. Moreover, the self-calibration ? function was defined by ?max,L,L CL,Q (t) ? CL,Q . As shown in [7] this ? (?, Q) = inf t?R; |t?t? L,Q |?? self-calibration function has two important properties: first it satisfies  ? ?max,L,L |t ? t?L,Q |, Q ? CL,Q (t) ? CL,Q , t ? R, (16) ? i.e. it measures how well approximate L-risk minimizers t approximate the true minimizer t?L,Q , and ? P , i.e. second it equals the calibration function of the P-instance L ?max,L? P ,L (?, P( ? |x), x) = ?max,L,L ? ? [0, ?], x ? X. (17) ? (?, P( ? |x)) , In other words, the self-calibration function can be utilized in Theorem 3.1. ? Proof of Theorem 2.5: Let Q be a distribution on R with CL,Q < ? and t? be the only ? -quantile of Q. Then the formulas of Proposition 3.2 show Z ? Z ? n   o ? ? ?max,L,L Q (t , t + s) ds, ?q? + Q (t? ? s, t? ) ds , ? ? 0, ? (?, Q) = min ?q+ + 0 0 where q+ and q? are the real numbers defined in Proposition 3.2. Let us additionally assume that the ? -quantile t? is of type ?. For the Huber type function ?(?) := ?2 /2 if ? ? [0, ?], and ?(?) := ?? ? ?2 /2 if ? > ?, a simple calculation then yields ?max,L,L ? (?, Q) ? cQ ?(?), where cQ is the ? ? constant satisfying (3). Let us further define ? : [0, ?) ? [0, ?) by ?(?) := ? q (?1/q ), ? ? 0. In ? ? view of Theorem 3.1 we then need to find a convex function ?? : [0, ?) ? [0, ?) such    that ? ? ?. ? ? To this end we define ?(?) := spp ?2 if ? ? 0, sp ap and ?(?) := ap ? ? sp+2 a if ? > sp ap , p p q ?q/p ? where ap := ? and sp := 2 . Then ? : [0, ?) ? [0, ?) is continuously differentiable and its derivative is increasing, and thus ?? is convex. Moreover, we have ??? ? ??? and hence ?? ? ?? which in turn implies ?? ? ???? . Now we find the assertion by (16), (17), and Theorem 3.1. The proof of Theorem 2.7 follows immediately from the following lemma. Lemma 3.3 Let Q be a symmetric, atom-free distribution on R Rwith median t? = 0. Then for ? > 0 ? ? and L being the ?-insensitive loss we have CL,Q (0) = CL,Q = 2 ? Q[s, ?)ds and if CL,Q (0) < ? we further have Z ? Z ?+t CL,Q (t) ? CL,Q (0) = Q[s, ?] ds + Q[?, s] ds, if t ? [0, ?], CL,Q (t) ? CL,Q (?) = ??t t?? Z 0 Q[s, ?) ds ? ? ?+t Z Zt?? Q[s, ?) ds + 2 Q[0, s] ds ? 0, 2? if t > ?. 0 ? In particular, if Q[? ? ?, ? + ?] = 0 for some ? > 0 then CL,Q (?) = CL,Q . Proof: Because L(y, t) = L(?y, ?t) for all y, t ? R we only have to consider t ? 0. For later use we note that for 0 ? a ? b ? ? Equation (11) yields Z b Z b y dQ(y) = aQ([a, b]) + Q([s, b])ds . (18) a a Moreover, the definition of L implies Z t?? Z CL,Q (t) = t ? y ? ? dQ(y) + ?? ? t+? y ? ? ? t dQ(y) . R t?? R? Using the symmetry of Q yields ? ?? y dQ(y) = ??t y dQ(y) and hence we obtain Z t?? Z t+? Z t+? Z ? CL,Q (t) = Q(??, t ? ?]ds ? Q[t + ?, ?)ds + y dQ(y) + 2 y dQ(y) . (19) 0 0 ??t t+? R t+? R t+? Let us first consider the case t ? ?. Then the symmetry of Q yields ??t y dQ(y) = t?? y dQ(y), and hence (18) implies Z t?? Z t?? Z t+? CL,Q (t) = Q[? ? t, ?)ds + Q[t??, t+?] ds + Q[s, t+?] ds 0 Z +2 ? t+? Q[s, ?) ds + Z 0 0 t+? t?? Q[t+?, ?) ds. Using Z t+? Q[s, t + ?) ds = t?? Z t+? Q[s, t + ?) ds ? 0 t?? Z Q[s, t + ?) ds 0 we further obtain Z? Zt?? Z? Zt+? Zt+? Q[s, t + ?) ds + Q[t + ?, ?) ds + Q[s, ?) ds = Q[s, ?) ds ? Q[s, t + ?) ds . t?? t+? 0 R t?? 0 R t?? 0 R t?? Q[t ? ?, t + ?] ds ? 0 Q[s, t + ?] ds = ? 0 Q[s, t ? ?] ds follows Z t?? Z t?? Z ? Z ? CL,Q (t) = ? Q[s, t ? ?] ds+ Q[? ? t, ?) ds+ Q[s, ?) ds+ Q[s, ?) ds . From this and 0 0 0 t+? 0 R t?? R t?? The symmetry of Q implies 0 Q[? ? t, t ? ?] ds = 2 0 Q[0, t ? ?] ds, and we get Z t?? Z t?? Z t?? Z t?? ? Q[s, t ? ?] ds + Q[? ? t, ?) ds = 2 Q[0, s) ds + Q[s, ?) ds . 0 0 0 0 This and Z ? t+? Q[s, ?) ds + Z 0 ? Z Q[s, ?) ds = 2 ? t+? Q[s, ?) ds + Z 0 t+? Q[s, ?) ds yields t?? Z CL,Q (t) = 2 Q[0, s) ds + 0 By Z t?? 0 t?? Q[s, ?) ds + 0 Z we obtain Z CL,Q (t) = 2 Z 0 t?? 0 t+? Z Q[s, ?) ds + 2 Z Q[s, ?) ds = 2 Z Q[0, ?) ds + 2 ? t+? Q[s, ?) ds + t?? 0 Q[s, ?) ds + ? t+? Q[s, ?) ds + Z Z t+? Q[s, ?) ds . 0 t+? Z t?? Q[s, ?) ds t+? Q[s, ?) ds t?? if t ? ?. Let us now consider the case t ? [0, ?]. Analogously we obtain from (19) that Z ??t Z ?+t Z ? CL,Q (t) = Q[? ? t, t + ?] ds + Q[s, t + ?] ds + 2 Q[s, ?) ds 0 Z +2 0 ??t ??t ?+t Q[? + t, ?) ds ? Combining this with Z ??t Z Q[? ? t, t + ?] ds ? 0 and Z 0 ?+t ?+t Q[? ? t, ?) ds ? ??t 0 Q[? ? t, ?) ds = ? R ?+t Z Z 0 Q[? + t, ?) ds . ??t 0 Q[? + t, ?) ds R ??t R ?+t Q[? + t, ?) ds ? 0 Q[? + t, ?) ds = ??t Q[? + t, ?) ds we get Z ?+t Z ?+t Z ? CL,Q (t) = Q[? + t, ?) ds + Q[s, t + ?] ds + 2 Q[s, ?) ds 0 ??t ?+t = Z ??t Z Q[s, ?) ds + 2 ??t ? ?+t Q[s, ?) ds = ?+t Z ? ??t Q[s, ?) ds + Z ? ?+t Q[s, ?) ds. R? Hence CL,Q (0) = 2 ? Q[s, ?) ds. The expressions for CL,Q (t)?CL,Q (0), t ? (0, ?], and CL,Q (t)? CL,Q (?), t > ?, given in Lemma 3.3 follow by using the same arguments. Hence one exact minimizer of CL,Q (?) is the median t? = 0. The last assertion is a direct consequence of the formula for CL,Q (t) ? CL,Q (0) in the case t ? (0, ?]. References [1] H. Bauer. Measure and Integration Theory. De Gruyter, Berlin, 2001. [2] A. Christmann and I. Steinwart. Consistency and robustness of kernel based regression. Bernoulli, 15:799?819, 2007. [3] D.E. Edmunds and H. Triebel. Function Spaces, Entropy Numbers, Differential Operators. Cambridge University Press, 1996. [4] C. Hwang and J. Shim. A simple quantile regression via support vector machine. In Advances in Natural Computation: First International Conference (ICNC), pages 512 ?520. Springer, 2005. [5] R. Koenker. Quantile Regression. Cambridge University Press, 2005. [6] B. Sch?olkopf, A. J. Smola, R. C. Williamson, and P. L. Bartlett. New support vector algorithms. Neural Computation, 12:1207?1245, 2000. [7] I. Steinwart. How to compare different loss functions. Constr. Approx., 26:225?287, 2007. [8] I. Steinwart, D. Hush, and C. Scovel. Function classes that approximate the Bayes risk. In Proceedings of the 19th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, COLT 2006, pages 79?93. Springer, 2006. [9] I. Steinwart, D. Hush, and C. Scovel. An oracle inequality for clipped regularized risk minimizers. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 1321?1328, 2007. [10] I. Takeuchi, Q.V. Le, T.D. Sears, and A.J. Smola. Nonparametric quantile estimation. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 7:1231?1264, 2006.
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Convex Clustering with Exemplar-Based Models Danial Lashkari Polina Golland Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 {danial, polina}@csail.mit.edu Abstract Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approach to approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering can be thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping. We present experimental results illustrating the performance of our algorithm and its comparison with the conventional approach to mixture model clustering. 1 Introduction Clustering is one of the most basic problems of unsupervised learning with applications in a wide variety of fields. The input is either vectorial data, that is, vectors of data points in the feature space, or proximity data, the pairwise similarity or dissimilarity values between the data points. The choice of the clustering cost function and the optimization algorithm employed to solve the problem determines the resulting clustering [1]. Intuitively, most methods seek compact clusters of data points, namely, clusters with relatively small intra-cluster and high inter-cluster distances. Other approaches, such as Spectral Clustering [2], look for clusters of more complex shapes lying on some low dimensional manifolds in the feature space. These methods typically transform the data such that the manifold structures get mapped to compact point clouds in a different space. Hence, they do not remove the need for efficient compact-cluster-finding techniques such as k-means. The widely used Soft k-means method is an instance of maximum likelihood fitting of a mixture model through the EM algorithm. Although this approach yields satisfactory results for problems with a small number of clusters and is relatively fast, its use of a gradient-descent algorithm for minimization of a cost function with many local optima makes it sensitive to initialization. As the search space grows, that is, the number of data points or clusters increases, it becomes harder to find a good initialization. This problem often arises in emerging applications of clustering for large biological data sets such as gene-expression. Typically, one runs the algorithm many times with different random initializations and selects the best solution. More sophisticated initialization methods have been proposed to improve the results but the challenge of finding good initialization for EM algorithm remains [4]. We aim to circumvent the initialization procedure by designing a convex problem whose global optimum can be found with a simple algorithm. It has been shown that mixture modeling can 1 be formulated as an instance of iterative distance minimization between two sets of probability distributions [3]. This formulation shows that the non-convexity of mixture modeling cost function comes from the parametrization of the model components . More precisely, any mixture model is, by definition, a convex combination of some set of distributions. However, for a fixed number of mixture components, the set of all such mixture models is usually not convex when the distributions have, say, free mean parameters in the case of normal distributions. Inspired by combinatorial, non-parametric methods such as k-medoids [5] and affinity propagation [6], our main idea is to employ the notion of exemplar finding, namely, finding the data points which could best describe the data set. We assume that the clusters are dense enough such that there is always a data point very close to the real cluster centroid and, thus, restrict the set of possible cluster means to the set of data points. Further, by taking all data points as exemplar candidates, the modeling cost function becomes convex. A variant of EM algorithm finds the globally optimal solution. Convexity of the cost function means that the algorithm will unconditionally converge to the global minimum. Moreover, since the number of clusters is not specified a priori, the algorithm automatically finds the number of clusters depending only on one temperature-like parameter. This parameter, which is equivalent to a common fixed variance in case of Gaussian models, defines the width scale of the desired clusters in the feature space. Our method works exactly in the same way with both proximity and vectorial data, unifying their treatment and providing insights into the modeling assumptions underlying the conversion of feature vectors into pairwise proximity data. In the next section, we introduce our maximum likelihood function and the algorithm that maximizes it. In Section 3, we make a connection to the Rate-Distortion theory as a way to build intuition about our objective function. Section 4 presents implementation details of our algorithm. Experimental results comparing our method with a similar mixture model fitting method are presented in Section 5, followed by a discussion of the algorithm and the related work in Section 6. 2 Convex Cost Function Given a set of data points X = {x1 , ? ? ? , xn } ? IRd , mixture model clustering seeks to maximize the scaled log-likelihood function l({qj }kj=1 , {mj }kj=1 ; X ) =  X k n 1X qj f (xi ; mj ) , log n i=1 j=1 (1) where f (x; m) is an exponential family distribution on random variable X. It has been shown that there is a bijection between regular exponential families and a broad family of divergences called Bregman divergence [7]. Most of the well-known distance measures, such as Euclidean distance or Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL-divergence) are included in this family. We employ this relationship and let our model be an exponential family distribution on X of the form f (x; m) = C(x) exp(?d? (x, m)) where d? is some Bregman divergence and C(x) is independent of m. Note that with this representation, m is the expected value of X under the distribution f (x; m). For instance, taking Euclidean distance as the divergence, we obtain normal distribution as our model f . In this work, we take models of the above form whose parameters m lie in the same space as data vectors. Thus, we can restrict the set of mixture components to the distributions centered at the data points, i.e., mj ? X . Yet, for a specified number of clusters k, the problem still has a combinatorial nature of choosing the right k cluster centers among n data points. To avoid this problem, we increase the number of possible components to n and represent all data points as cluster-center candidates. The new log-likelihood function is X  n n n n X 1X 1X n ??d? (xi ,xj ) l({qj }j=1 ; X ) = log qj fj (xi ) = log qj e + const. , (2) n i=1 n i=1 j=1 j=1 where fj (x) is an exponential family member with its expectation parameter equal to the jth data vector and the constant denotes a term that does not depend on the unknown variables {qj }nj=1 . The constant scaling factor ? in the exponent controls the sharpness of mixture components. We n o Pn maximize l(?; X ) over the set of all mixture distributions Q = Q|Q(?) = j=1 qj fj (?) . 2 The log-likelihood function (2) can be expressed in terms of the KL-divergence by defining P? (x) = 1/n, x ? X , to be the empirical distribution of the data on IRd and by noting that X D(P? kQ) = ? P? (x) log Q(x) ? H(P? ) = ?l({qj }nj=1 ; X ) + const. (3) x?X where H(P? ) is the entropy of the empirical distribution and does not depend on the unknown mixture coefficients {qj }nj=1 . Consequently, the maximum likelihood problem can be equivalently stated as the minimization of the KL-divergence between P? and the set of mixture distributions Q. It is easy to see that unlike the unconstrained set of mixture densities considered by the likelihood function (1), set Q is convex. Our formulation therefore leads to a convex minimization problem. Furthermore, it is proved in [3] that for such a problem, the sequence of distributions Q(t) with (t) corresponding weights {qj }nj=1 defined iteratively via (t+1) qj (t) = qj X x?X P? (x)fj (x) Pn (t) 0 j 0 =1 qj 0 fj (x) (4) is guaranteed to converge to the global optimum solution Q? if the support of the initial distribution (0) is the entire index set, i.e., qj > 0 for all j. 3 Connection to Rate-Distortion Problems Now, we present an equivalent statement of our problem on the product set of exemplars and data points. This alternative formulation views our method as an instance of lossy data compression and directly implies the optimality of the algorithm (4). The following proposition is introduced and proved in [3]: Proposition 1. Let Q0 be the set of distributions of the complete data random variable (J, X) ? {1, ? ? ? , n} ? IRd with elements Q0 (j, x) = qj fj (x). Let P 0 be the set of all distributions on the same random variable (J, X) which have P? as their marginal on X. Then, min D(P? kQ) = Q?Q min P 0 ?P 0 ,Q0 ?Q0 D(P 0 kQ0 ) (5) where Q is the set of all marginal distributions of elements of Q0 on X. Furthermore, if Q? and (P 0? , Q0? ) are the corresponding optimal arguments, Q? is the marginal of Q0? . This proposition implies that we can express our problem of minimizing (3) as minimization of D(P 0 kQ0 ) where P 0 and Q0 are distributions of the random variable (J, X). Specifically, we define:  1 n rij , x = xi ? X ; Q0 (j, x) = qj C(x)e??d? (x,xj ) P 0 (j, x) = P? (x)P 0 (j|x) = (6) 0, otherwise where qj and rij = P 0 (j|x = xi ) are probability distributions over the set {j}nj=1 . This formulation ensures that P 0 ? P 0 , Q0 ? Q0 and the objective function is expressed only in terms of variables qj and P 0 (j|x) for x ? X . Our goal is then to solve the minimization problem in the space of distributions of random variable (J, I) ? {j}nj=1 ?{j}nj=1 , namely, in the product space of exemplar ? data point indices. Substituting expressions (6) into the KL-divergence D(P 0 kQ0 ), we obtain the equivalent cost function:   n rij 1 X 0 0 rij log + ?d? (xi , xj ) + const. (7) D(P kQ ) = n i,j=1 qj P It is straightforward to show that for any set of values rij , setting qj = n1 i rij minimizes (7). Substituting this expression into the cost function, we obtain the final expression   n 1 X rij 0 0? 0 D(P kQ (P )) = rij log 1 P + ?d? (xi , xj ) + const. , n i,j=1 i 0 r i0 j n = I(I; J) + ?EI,J d? (xi , xj ) + const. 3 (8) where the first term is the mutual information between the random variables I (data points) and J (exemplars) under the distribution P 0 and the second term is the expected value of the pairwise distances with the same distribution on indices. The n2 unknown values of rij lie on n separate n-dimensional simplices. These parameters have the same role as cluster responsibilities in soft k-means: they stand for the probability of data point xi choosing data point xj as its cluster-center. The algorithm described in (4) is in fact the same as the standard Arimoto-Blahut algorithm [10] commonly used for solving problems of the form (8). We established that the problem of maximizing log-likelihood function (2) is equivalent to the minimization of objective function (8). This helps us to interpret this problem in the framework of Rate-Distortion theory. The data set can be thought of as an information source with a uniform distribution on the alphabet X . Such a source has entropy log n, which means that any scheme for encoding an infinitely long i.i.d. sequence generated by this source requires on average this number of bits per symbol, i.e., has a rate of at least log n. We cannot compress the information source beyond this rate without tolerating some distortion, when the original data points are encoded into other points with nonzero distances between them. We can then consider rij ?s as a probabilistic encoding of our data set onto itself with the corresponding average distortion D = EI,J d? (xi , xj ) ? that minimizes (8) for some ? yields the least rate that can be and the rate I(I; J). A solution rij achieved having no more than the corresponding average distortion D. This rate is usually denoted by R(D), a function of average distortion, and is called the rate-distortion function [8]. Note that we have ?R/?D = ??, 0 < ? < ? at any point on the rate-distortion function graph. The weight qj for the data point xj is a measure of how likely this point is to appear in the compressed representation of the data set, i.e., to be an exemplar. Here, we can rigorously quantify our intuitive idea that higher number of clusters (corresponding to higher rates) is the inherent cost of attaining lower average distortion. We will see an instance of this rate-distortion trade-off in Section 5. 4 Implementation The implementation of our algorithm costs two matrix-vector multiplications per iteration, that is, has a complexity of order n2 per iteration, if solved with no approximations. Letting sij = exp(??d? (xi , xj )) and using two auxiliary vectors z and ?, we obtain the simple update rules (t) zi = n X j=1 n (t) sij qj (t) ?j = 1 X sij n i=1 z (t) (t+1) qj (t) (t) = ?j qj (9) i (0) where the initialization qj is nonzero for all the data points we want to consider as possible exemplars. At the fixed point, the values of ?j are equal to 1 for all data points in the support P of qj and are less than 1 otherwise [10]. In practice, we compute the gap between maxj (log ?j ) and j qj log ?j in each iteration and stop the algorithm when this gap becomes less than a small threshold. Note (t) (t) (t) that the soft assignments rij = qj sij /nzi need to be computed only once after the algorithm has converged. Any value of ? ? [0, ?) yields a different solution to (8) with different number of nonzero qj values. Smaller values of ? correspond to having wider clusters and greater values correspond to narrower clusters. Neither extreme, one assigning all data points to the central exemplar and the other taking all data points as exemplars, is interesting. For reasonable ranges of ?, the solution is sparse and the resulting number of nonzero components of qj determines the final number of clusters. Similar to other interior-point methods, the convergence of our algorithm becomes slow as we move close to the vertices of the probability simplex where some qj ?s are very small. In order to improve the convergence rate, after each iteration, we identify all qj ?s that are below a certain threshold (10?3 /n in our experiments,) set them to zero and re-normalize the entire distribution over the remaining indices. This effectively excludes the corresponding points as possible exemplars and reduces the cost of the following iterations. In order to further speed up the algorithm for very large data sets, we can search over values of sij for any i and keep only the largest no values in any row turning the proximity matrix into a sparse one. The reasoning is simply that we expect any point to be represented in the final solution with exemplars relatively close to it. We observed that as long as no values are a few times greater than the expected number of data points in each cluster, the final results remain almost the same 4 12 6 10 5 8 Rate (bits) 4 6 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Average Distortion 800 900 0 0 1000 0.5 1 ?/?o 1.5 2 2.5 Figure 1: Left: rate-distortion function for the example described in the text. The line with slope ??o is also illustrated for comparison (dotted line) as well as the point corresponding to ? = ?o (cross) and the line tangent to the graph at that point. Right: the exponential of rate (dotted line) and number of hard clusters for different values of beta (solid line.) The rate is bounded above by logarithm of number of clusters. with or without this preprocessing. However, this approximation decreases the running time of the algorithm by a factor n/no . 5 Experimental Results To illustrate some general properties of our method, we apply it to the set of 400 random data points in IR2 shown in Figure 2. We use Euclidean distance and run the algorithm for different values of ?. Figure 1 (left) shows the resulting rate-distortion function for this example. As we expect, the estimated rate-distortion function is smooth, monotonically decreasing and convex. To visualize the clustering results, we turn the soft responsibilities into hard assignments. Here, we first choose the set of exemplars to be the set of all indices j that are MAP estimate exemplars for some data point i under P 0 (j|xi ). Then, any point is assigned to its closest exemplar. Figure 2 illustrates the shapes of the resulting hard clusters for different values of ?. Since ? has dimensions P of inverse variance in the case of Gaussian models, we chose an empirical value ?o = n2 log n/ i,j kxi ? xj k2 so that values ? around ?o give reasonable results. We can see how clusters split when we increase ?. Such cluster splitting behavior also occurs in the case of a Gaussian mixture model with unconstrained cluster centers and has been studied as the phase transitions of a corresponding statistical system [9]. The nature of this connection remains to be further investigated. The resulting number of hard clusters for different values of ? are shown in Figure 1 (right). The figure indicates two regions of ? with relatively stable number of clusters, namely 4 and 10, while other cluster numbers have a more transitory nature with varying ?. The distribution of data points in Figure 2 shows that this is a reasonable choice of number of clusters for this data set. However, we also observe some fluctuations in the number of clusters even in the more stable regime of values of ?. Comparing this behavior with the monotonicity of our rate shows how, by turning the soft assignments into the hard ones, we lose the strong optimality guarantees we have for the original soft solution. Nevertheless, since our global optimum is minimum to a well justified cost function, we expect to obtain relatively good hard assignments. We further discuss this aspect of the formulation in Section 6. The main motivation for developing a convex formulation of clustering is to avoid the well-known problem of local optima and sensitivity to initialization. We compare our method with a regular mixture model of the form (1) where f (x; m) is a Gaussian distribution and the problem is solved using the EM algorithm. We will refer to this regular mixture model as the soft k-means. The kmeans algorithm is a limiting case of this mixture-model problem when ? ? ?, hence the name soft k-means. The comparison will illustrate how employing convexity helps us better explore the search space as the problem grows in complexity. We use synthetic data sets by drawing points from unit variance Gaussian distributions centered around a set of vectors. There is an important distinction between the soft k-means and our algorithm: although the results of both algorithms depend on the choice of ?, only the soft k-means needs the number of clusters k as an input. We run the two algorithms for five different values of ? which were empirically found 5 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ?10 ?10 ?20 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?40 40 (a) ?30 ?30 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 ?40 40 ?40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ?10 ?10 ?20 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?40 40 (c) ?30 ?30 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 ?40 40 ?40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 ?10 ?10 ?20 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?40 (e) ?30 ?30 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 ?40 40 ?40 (b) ?30 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 40 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 40 ?20 ?10 0 10 20 30 40 (d) ?30 (f) ?30 Figure 2: The clusters found for different values of ?, (a) 0.1?o (b) 0.5?o (c) ?o (d) 1.2?o (e) 1.6?o (f) 1.7?o . The exemplar data point of each cluster is denoted by a cross. The range of normal distributions for any mixture model is illustrated here by circles around these exemplar points with radius equal to the square root of the variance corresponding to the value of ? used by the algorithm (? = (2?)?1/2 ). Shapes and colors denote cluster labels. to yield reasonable results for the problems presented here. As a measure of clustering quality, we use micro-averaged precision. We form the contingency tables for the cluster assignments found by the algorithm and the true cluster labels. The percentage of the total number of data points assigned to the right cluster is taken as the precision value of the clustering result. Out of the five runs with different values of ?, we take the result with the best precision value for any of the two algorithms. In the first experiment, we look at the performance of the two algorithms as the number of clusters increases. Different data sets are generated by drawing 3000 data points around some number of cluster centers in IR20 with all clusters having the same number of data points. Each component of any data-point vector comes from an independent Gaussian distribution with unit variance around the value of the corresponding component of its cluster center. Further, we randomly generate components of the cluster-center vectors from a Gaussian distribution with variance 25 around zero. In this experiment, for any value of ?, we repeat soft k-means 1000 times with random initialization and pick the solution with the highest likelihood value. Figure 3 (left) presents the precision values as a function of the number of clusters in the mixture distribution that generates the 3000 data points. The error bars summarize the standard deviation of precision over 200 independently generated data sets. We can see that performance of soft k-means drops as the number of clusters increases while our performance remains relatively stable. Consequently, as illustrated in Figure 3 (right), 6 25 Average Precision Gain Average Precision 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 ? Convex?Clustering? Soft?k?means? 56 8 10 12 15 20 25 Number of Clusters 30 20 15 10 5 0 -5 5 6 8 10 12 15 20 25 Number of Clusters 30 ? Figure 3: Left: average precision values of Convex Clustering and Soft k-means for different numbers of clusters in 200 data sets of 3000 data points. Right: precision gain of using Convex Clustering in the same experiment. the average precision difference of the two algorithms increases with increasing number of clusters. Since the total number of data points remains the same, increasing the number of clusters results in increasing complexity of the problem with presumably more local minima to the cost function. This trend agrees with our expectation that the results of the convex algorithm improves relative to the original one with a larger search space. As another way of exploring the complexity of the problem, in our second experiment, we generate data sets with different dimensionality. We draw 100 random vectors, with unit variance Gaussian distribution in each component, around any of the 40 cluster centers to make ? data sets of total 4000 data points. The cluster centers are chosen to be of the form (0, ? ? ? , 0, 50, 0, ? ? ? , 0) where we change the position of the nonzero component to make different cluster centers. In this way, the pairwise distance between all cluster centers is 50 by formation. Figure 4 (left) presents the precision values found for the two algorithms when 4000 points lie in spaces with different dimensionality. Soft k-means was repeated 100 times with random initialization for any value of ?. Again, the relative performance of Convex Clustering when compared to soft k-means improves with the increasing problem complexity. This is another evidence that for larger data sets the less precise nature of our constrained search, as compared to the full mixture models, is well compensated by its ability to always find its global optimum. In general the value of ? should be tuned to find the desired solution. We plan to develop a more systematic way for choosing ?. 6 Discussion and Related Work Since only the distances take part in our formulation and the values of data point vectors are not required, we can extend this method to any proximity data. Given a matrix Dn?n = [dij ] that describes the pairwise symmetric or asymmetric dissimilarities between data points, we can replace d? (xi , xj )?s in (8) with dij ?s and solve the same minimization problem whose convexity can be directly verified. The algorithm works in exactly the same way and all the aforementioned properties carry over to this case as well. A previous application of rate-distortion theoretic ideas in clustering led to the deterministic annealing (DA). In order to avoid local optima, DA gradually decreases an annealing parameter, tightening the bound on the average distortion [9]. However, at each temperature the same standard EM updates are used. Consequently, the method does not provide strong guarantees on the global optimality of the resulting solution. Affinity propagation is another recent exemplar-based clustering algorithm. It finds the exemplars by forming a factor graph and running a message passing algorithm on the graph as a way to minimize the clustering cost function [6]. If the data point i is represented by the data point ci , assuming a common preference parameter value ? for all data points, the objective function of affinity propP agation can be stated as i dici + ?k where k is the number of found clusters. The second term is needed to put some cost on picking any point as an exemplar to prevent the trivial case of sending any point to itself. Outstanding results have been reported for the affinity propagation [6] but theoretical guarantees on its convergence or optimality are yet to be established. 7 ? Average Precision Gain Average Precision ? 100 95 Convex?Clustering? Soft?k?means? 90 85 50 75 100 125 Number of Dimensions 150 18 16 14 12 10 8 50 75 100 125 Number of Dimensions 150 ? Figure 4: Left: average precision values of Convex Clustering and Soft k-means for different data dimensionality in 100 data sets of 4000 data points with 40 clusters. Right: precision gain of using Convex Clustering in the same experiment. We can interpret our algorithm as a relaxation of this combinatorial problem to the soft assignment case by introducing probabilities P P(ci = j) = rij of associating point i with an exemplar j. The 1 marginal distribution qj = n i rij is the probability that point j is an exemplar. In order to use analytical tools for solving this problem, we have to turn the regularization term k into a continuous function of assignments. A possible choice might be H(q), entropy of distribution qj , which is bounded above by log k. However, the entropy function is concave and any local or global minimum of a concave minimization problem over a simplex occurs in an extreme point of the feasible domain which in our case corresponds to the original combinatorial hard assignments [11]. In contrast, using mutual information I(I, J) induced by rij as the regularizing term turns the problem into a convex problem. Mutual information is convex and serves as a lower bound on H(q) since it is always less than the entropy of both of its random variables. Now, by letting ? = 1/? we arrive to our cost function in (8). We can therefore see that our formulation is a convex relaxation of the original combinatorial problem. In conclusion, we proposed a framework for constraining the search space of general mixture models to achieve global optimality of the solution. In particular, our method promises to be useful in problems with large data sets where regular mixture models fail to yield consistent results due to their sensitivity to initialization. We also plan to further investigate generalization of this idea to the models with more elaborate parameterizations. Acknowledgements. This research was supported in part by the NIH NIBIB NAMIC U54EB005149, NCRR NAC P41-RR13218 grants and by the NSF CAREER grant 0642971. References [1] J. Puzicha, T. Hofmann, and J. M. Buhmann, ?Theory of proximity based clustering: Structure detection by optimization,? Pattern Recognition, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 617?634, 2000. [2] A. Y. Ng, M. I. Jordan, and Y. Weiss, ?On Spectral Clustering: Analysis and an Algorithml,? Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 14, pp. 849?856, 2001. [3] I. Csisz?ar and P. Shields, ?Information Theory and Statistics: A Tutorial,? Foundations and Trends in Communications and Information Theory, Vol. 1, No. 4, pp. 417?528, 2004. [4] M. Meil?a, and D. Heckerman, ?An Experimental Comparison of Model-Based Clustering Methods,? Machine Learning, Vol. 42, No. 1-2, pp. 9?29, 2001. [5] J. Han, and M. Kamber, Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques, Morgan Kaufmann, 2001. [6] B. J. Frey, and D. Dueck, ?Clustering by Passing Messages Between Data Points,? Science, Vol. 315, No. 5814, pp. 972?976, 2007. [7] A. Banerjee, S. Merugu, I. S.Dhillon, and J. Ghosh, ?Clustering with Bregman Divergences,? Journal of Machine Learning Research, Vol. 6, No. 6, pp. 1705-1749, 2005. [8] T. M. Cover, and J. A. Thomas, Elements of information theory, New York, Wiley, 1991. [9] K. Rose, ?Deterministic Annealing for Clustering, Compression, Classification, Regression, and Related Optimization Problems,? Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 86, No. 11, pp. 2210?2239, 1998. [10] R. E. .Blahut, ?Computation of Channel Capacity and Rate-Distortion Functions,? IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Vol. IT-18, No. 4, pp. 460?473, 1974. [11] M. Pardalos, and J. B. Rosen, ?Methods for Global Concave Minimization: A Bibliographic Survey,? SIAM Review, Vol. 28, No. 3., pp. 367?379, 1986. 8
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Random Features for Large-Scale Kernel Machines Benjamin Recht Caltech IST Pasadena, CA 91125 [email protected] Ali Rahimi Intel Research Seattle Seattle, WA 98105 [email protected] Abstract To accelerate the training of kernel machines, we propose to map the input data to a randomized low-dimensional feature space and then apply existing fast linear methods. The features are designed so that the inner products of the transformed data are approximately equal to those in the feature space of a user specified shiftinvariant kernel. We explore two sets of random features, provide convergence bounds on their ability to approximate various radial basis kernels, and show that in large-scale classification and regression tasks linear machine learning algorithms applied to these features outperform state-of-the-art large-scale kernel machines. 1 Introduction Kernel machines such as the Support Vector Machine are attractive because they can approximate any function or decision boundary arbitrarily well with enough training data. Unfortunately, methods that operate on the kernel matrix (Gram matrix) of the data scale poorly with the size of the training dataset. For example, even with the most powerful workstation, it might take days to train a nonlinear SVM on a dataset with half a million training examples. On the other hand, linear machines can be trained very quickly on large datasets when the dimensionality of the data is small [1, 2, 3]. One way to take advantage of these linear training algorithms for training nonlinear machines is to approximately factor the kernel matrix and to treat the columns of the factor matrix as features in a linear machine (see for example [4]). Instead, we propose to factor the kernel function itself. This factorization does not depend on the data, and allows us to convert the training and evaluation of a kernel machine into the corresponding operations of a linear machine by mapping data into a relatively low-dimensional randomized feature space. Our experiments show that these random features, combined with very simple linear learning techniques, compete favorably in speed and accuracy with state-of-the-art kernel-based classification and regression algorithms, including those that factor the kernel matrix. The kernel trick is a simple way to generate features for algorithms that depend only on the inner product between pairs of input points. It relies on the observation that any positive definite function k(x, y) with x, y ? Rd defines an inner product and a lifting ? so that the inner product between lifted datapoints can be quickly computed as h?(x), ?(y)i = k(x, y). The cost of this convenience is that the algorithm accesses the data only through evaluations of k(x, y), or through the kernel matrix consisting of k applied to all pairs of datapoints. As a result, large training sets incur large computational and storage costs. Instead of relying on the implicit lifting provided by the kernel trick, we propose explicitly mapping the data to a low-dimensional Euclidean inner product space using a randomized feature map z : Rd ? RD so that the inner product between a pair of transformed points approximates their kernel evaluation: k(x, y) = h?(x), ?(y)i ? z(x)0 z(y). (1) 1 Unlike the kernel?s lifting ?, z is low-dimensional. Thus, we can simply transform the input with z, and then apply fast linear learning methods to approximate the answer of the corresponding nonlinear kernel machine. In what follows, we show how to construct feature spaces that uniformly approximate popular shift-invariant kernels k(x ? y) to within  with only D = O(d?2 log 12 ) dimensions, and empirically show that excellent regression and classification performance can be obtained for even smaller D. In addition to giving us access to extremely fast learning algorithms, these randomized feature maps also provide a way to quickly evaluate the machine. With the kernel trick, evaluating the machine PN at a test point x requires computing f (x) = i=1 ci k(xi , x), which requires O(N d) operations to compute and requires retaining much of the dataset unless the machine is very sparse. This is often unacceptable for large datasets. On the other hand, after learning a hyperplane w, a linear machine can be evaluated by simply computing f (x) = w0 z(x), which, with the randomized feature maps presented here, requires only O(D + d) operations and storage. We demonstrate two randomized feature maps for approximating shift invariant kernels. Our first randomized map, presented in Section 3, consists of sinusoids randomly drawn from the Fourier transform of the kernel function we seek to approximate. Because this map is smooth, it is wellsuited for interpolation tasks. Our second randomized map, presented in Section 4, partitions the input space using randomly shifted grids at randomly chosen resolutions. This mapping is not smooth, but leverages the proximity between input points, and is well-suited for approximating kernels that depend on the L1 distance between datapoints. Our experiments in Section 5 demonstrate that combining these randomized maps with simple linear learning algorithms competes favorably with state-of-the-art training algorithms in a variety of regression and classification scenarios. 2 Related Work The most popular methods for large-scale kernel machines are decomposition methods for solving Support Vector Machines (SVM). These methods iteratively update a subset of the kernel machine?s coefficients using coordinate ascent until KKT conditions are satisfied to within a tolerance [5, 6]. While such approaches are versatile workhorses, they do not always scale to datasets with more than hundreds of thousands of datapoints for non-linear problems. To extend learning with kernel machines to these scales, several approximation schemes have been proposed for speeding up operations involving the kernel matrix. The evaluation of the kernel function can be sped up using linear random projections [7]. Throwing away individual entries [7] or entire rows [8, 9, 10] of the kernel matrix lowers the storage and computational cost of operating on the kernel matrix. These approximations either preserve the separability of the data [8], or produce good low-rank or sparse approximations of the true kernel matrix [7, 9]. Fast multipole and multigrid methods have also been proposed for this purpose, but, while they appear to be effective on small and low-dimensional problems, they have not been demonstrated on large datasets. Further, the quality of the Hermite or Taylor approximation that these methods rely on degrades exponentially with the dimensionality of the dataset [11]. Fast nearest neighbor lookup with KD-Trees has been used to approximate multiplication with the kernel matrix, and in turn, a variety of other operations [12]. The feature map we present in Section 4 is reminiscent of KD-trees in that it partitions the input space using multi-resolution axis-aligned grids similar to those developed in [13] for embedding linear assignment problems. 3 Random Fourier Features Our first set of random features project data points onto a randomly chosen line, and then pass the resulting scalar through a sinusoid (see Figure 1 and Algorithm 1). The random lines are drawn from a distribution so as to guarantee that the inner product of two transformed points approximates the desired shift-invariant kernel. The following classical theorem from harmonic analysis provides the key insight behind this transformation: Theorem 1 (Bochner [15]). A continuous kernel k(x, y) = k(x ? y) on Rd is positive definite if and only if k(?) is the Fourier transform of a non-negative measure. 2 x Kernel Name R2 ? Gaussian Laplacian Cauchy RD k(?) ? k?k2 2 2 e e?k?k1 Q 2 d 1+?2d p(?) D ?2 ? (2?) e Q 1 k?k2 2 2 d ?(1+?d2 ) ?k?k1 e Figure 1: Random Fourier Features. Each component of the feature map z(x) projects x onto a random direction ? drawn from the Fourier transform p(?) of k(?), and wraps this line onto the unit circle in R2 . After transforming two points x and y in this way, their inner product is an unbiased estimator of k(x, y). The table lists some popular shift-invariant kernels and their Fourier transforms. To deal with non-isotropic kernels, the data may be whitened before applying one of these kernels. If the kernel k(?) is properly scaled, Bochner?s theorem guarantees that its Fourier transform p(?) 0 is a proper probability distribution. Defining ?? (x) = ej? x , we have Z k(x ? y) = 0 p(?)ej? (x?y) d? = E? [?? (x)?? (y)? ], (2) Rd so ?? (x)?? (y)? is an unbiased estimate of k(x, y) when ? is drawn from p. To obtain a real-valued random feature for k, note that both the probability distribution p(?) and 0 the kernel k(?) are real, so the integrand ej? (x?y) may be replaced with cos ? 0 (x ? y). Defining 0 z? (x) = [ cos(x) sin(x) ] gives a real-valued mapping that satisfies the condition E[z??(x)0 z? (y)] = k(x, y), since z? (x)0 z? (y) = cos ? 0 (x ? y). Other mappings such as z? (x) = 2 cos(? 0 x + b), where ? is drawn from p(?) and b is drawn uniformly from [0, 2?], also satisfy the condition E[z? (x)0 z? (y)] = k(x, y). We can lower the variance of z? (x)0 z? (y) by ? concatenating D randomly chosen z? into a column vector z and normalizing each component by D. The inner product of points featureized by the PD 1 2D-dimensional random feature z, z(x)0 z(y) = D j=1 z?j (x)z?j (y) is a sample average of z?j (x)z?j (y) and is therefore a lower variance approximation to the expectation (2). Since z? (x)0 z? (y) is bounded between -1 and 1, for a fixed pair of points x and y, Hoeffding?s inequality guarantees exponentially fast convergence in D between z(x)0 z(y) and k(x, y): Pr [|z(x)0 z(y) ? k(x, y)| ? ] ? 2 exp(?D2 /2). Building on this observation, a much stronger assertion can be proven for every pair of points in the input space simultaneously: Claim 1 (Uniform convergence of Fourier features). Let M be a compact subset of Rd with diameter diam(M). Then, for the mapping z defined in Algorithm 1, we have   2   ?p diam(M) D2 sup |z(x)0 z(y) ? k(x, y)| ?  ? 28 exp ? ,  4(d + 2) x,y?M  Pr where ?p2 ? Ep [? 0 ?] is the second moment of the Fourier transform of k. Further, supx,y?M |z(x)0 z(y) ? k(y, x)| ?  with any constant probability when D =   ? diam(M) ? d2 log p  . The proof of this assertion first guarantees that z(x)0 z(y) is close to k(x ? y) for the centers of an -net over M ? M. This result is then extended to the entire space using the fact that the feature map is smooth with high probability. See the Appendix for details. By a standard Fourier identity, the scalar ?p2 is equal to the trace of the Hessian of k at 0. It quantifies the curvature of the kernel at the origin. For the spherical Gaussian kernel, k(x, y) =  exp ??kx ? yk2 , we have ?p2 = 2d?. 3 Algorithm 1 Random Fourier Features. Require: A positive definite shift-invariant kernel k(x, y) = k(x ? y). Ensure: A randomized feature map z(x) : Rd ? R2D so that Rz(x)0 z(y) ? k(x ? y). 0 1 e?j? ? k(?) d?. Compute the Fourier transform p of the kernel k: p(?) = 2? Draw D iid q samples ?1 , ? ? ? , ?D ? Rd from p. Let z(x) ? 4 1 D [ cos(?10 x) ??? 0 0 0 cos(?D x) sin(?10 x) ??? sin(?D x) ] . Random Binning Features Our second random map partitions the input space using randomly shifted grids at randomly chosen resolutions and assigns to an input point a binary bit string that corresponds to the bin in which it falls (see Figure 2 and Algorithm 2). The grids are constructed so that the probability that two points x and y are assigned to the same bin is proportional to k(x, y). The inner product between a pair of transformed points is proportional to the number of times the two points are binned together, and is therefore an unbiased estimate of k(x, y). 10000000 01000000 00100000 00010000 00001000 00000100 00000010 00000001 ? k(xi , xj ) + z1 (xi )0 z1 (xj ) z2 (xi )0 z2 (xj ) + z3 (xi )0 z3 (xj ) +??? = z(xi )0 z(xj ) Figure 2: Random Binning Features. (left) The algorithm repeatedly partitions the input space using a randomly shifted grid at a randomly chosen resolution and assigns to each point x the bit string z(x) associated with the bin to which it is assigned. (right) The binary adjacency matrix that describes this partitioning has z(xi )0 z(xj ) in its ijth entry and is an unbiased estimate of kernel matrix. We first  describe a randomized mapping to approximate the ?hat? kernel khat (x, y; ?) = max 0, 1 ? |x?y| on a compact subset of R ? R, then show how to construct mappings for ? more general separable multi-dimensional kernels. Partition the real number line with a grid of pitch ?, and shift this grid randomly by an amount u drawn uniformly at random from [0, ?]. This grid partitions the real number line into intervals [u + n?, u + (n + 1)?] forall integers n.  The |x?y| [13]. probability that two points x and y fall in the same bin in this grid is max 0, 1 ? ? In other words, if we number the bins of the grid so that a point x falls in bin x ? = b x?u ? c and y y?u falls in bin y? = b ? c, then Pru [? x = y?|?] = khat (x, y; ?). If we encode x ? as a binary indicator vector z(x) over the bins, z(x)0 z(y) = 1 if x and y fall in the same bin and zero otherwise, so Pru [z(x)0 z(y) = 1|?] = Eu [z(x)0 z(y)|?] = khat (x, y; ?). Therefore z is a random map for khat . Now consider shift-invariant kernels that R ?can be written as convex combinations of hat kernels on a compact subset of R ? R: k(x, y) = 0 khat (x, y; ?)p(?) d?. If the pitch ? of the grid is sampled from p, z again gives a random map for k because E?,u [z(x)0 z(y)] = E? [Eu [z(x)0 z(y)|?]] = E? [khat (x, y; ?)] = k(x, y). That is, if the pitch ? of the grid is sampled from p, and the shift u is drawn uniformly from [0, ?] the probability that x and y are binned together is k(x, y). Lemma 1 in ? the appendix shows that p can be easily recovered from k by setting p(?) = ? k(?). For example, in the case of the Laplacian kernel, kLaplacian (x, y) = exp(?|x ? y|), p(?) is the Gamma distribution ? exp(??). For the Gaussian kernel, k? is not everywhere positive, so this procedure does not yield a random map. Random maps for separable multivariate shift-invariant kernels of the form k(x ? y) = Qd m m m=1 km (|x ?y |) (such as the multivariate Laplacian kernel) can be constructed in a similar way if each km can be written as a convex combination of hat kernels. We apply the above binning process over each dimension of Rd independently. The probability that xm and y m are binned together in dimension m is km (|xm ? y m |). Since the binning process is independent across dimensions, the 4 Qd probability that x and y are binned together in every dimension is m=1 km (|xm ?y m |) = k(x?y). 1 d In this multivariate case, z(x) encodes the integer vector [ x? ,??? ,?x ] corresponding to each bin of the d-dimensional grid as a binary indicator vector. In practice, to prevent overflows when computing z(x) when d is large, our implementation eliminates unoccupied bins from the representation. Since there are never more bins than training points, this ensures no overflow is possible. We can again reduce the variance of the estimator z(x)0 z(y) p by concatenating P random binning functions z into a larger list of features z and scaling by 1/P . The inner product z(x)0 z(y) = PP 1 0 0 p=1 zp (x) zp (y) is the average of P independent z(x) z(y) and has therefore lower variance. P Since z(x)0 z(y) is binary, Hoeffding?s inequality guarantees that for a fixed pair of points x and y, z(x)0 z(y) converges exponentially quickly to k(x, y) as a function of P . Again, a much stronger claim is that this convergence holds simultaneously for all points: Claim 2. Let M be a compact subset of Rd with diameter diam(M). Let ? = E[1/?] and let Lk denote the Lipschitz constant of k with respect to the L1 norm. With z as above, we have ? ?  2   ? P8 + ln Lk ?, Pr sup |z(x)0 z(y) ? k(x, y)| ?  ? 1 ? 36dP ? diam(M) exp ? d+1 x,y?M R? R? ? Note that ? = 0 1? p(?) d? = 0 k(?) d? is 1, and Lk = 1 for the Laplacian kernel. The proof of the claim (see the appendix) partitions M ? M into a few small rectangular cells over which k(x, y) does not change much and z(x) and z(y) are constant. With high probability, at the centers of these cells z(x)0 z(y) is close to k(x, y), which guarantees that k(x, y) and z(x)0 z(y) are close throughout M ? M. Algorithm 2 Random Binning Features. Qd Require: A point x ? Rd . A kernel function k(x, y) = m=1 km (|xm ? y m |), so that pm (?) ? ?k?m (?) is a probability distribution on ? ? 0. Ensure: A randomized feature map z(x) so that z(x)0 z(y) ? k(x ? y). for p = 1 . . . P do Draw grid parameters ?, u ? Rd with the pitch ? m ? pm , and shift um from the uniform distribution on [0, ? m ]. Let z return the coordinate of the bin containing x as a binary indicator vector zp (x) ? d d 1 1 e). e, ? ? ? , d x ??u hash(d x ??u 1 d end for q 0 z(x) ? P1 [ z1 (x)???zP (x) ] . 5 Experiments The experiments summarized in Table 1 show that ridge regression with our random features is a fast way to approximate the training of supervised kernel machines. We focus our comparisons against the Core Vector Machine [14] because it was shown in [14] to be both faster and more accurate than other known approaches for training kernel machines, including, in most cases, random sampling of datapoints [8]. The experiments were conducted on the five standard large-scale datasets evaluated in [14], excluding the synthetic datasets. We replicated the results in the literature pertaining to the CVM, SVMlight , and libSVM using binaries provided by the respective authors.1 For the random feature experiments, we trained regressors and classifiers by solving the ridge regression problem 1 We include KDDCUP99 results for completeness, but note this dataset is inherently oversampled: training an SVM (or least squares with random features) on a random sampling of 50 training examples (0.001% of the training dataset) is sufficient to consistently yield a test-error on the order of 8%. Also, while we were able to replicate the CVM?s 6.2% error rate with the parameters supplied by the authors, retraining after randomly shuffling the training set results in 18% error and increases the computation time by an order of magnitude. Even on the original ordering, perturbing the CVM?s regularization parameter by a mere 15% yields 49% error rate on the test set [16]. 5 Dataset CPU regression 6500 instances 21 dims Census regression 18,000 instances 119 dims Adult classification 32,000 instances 123 dims Forest Cover classification 522,000 instances 54 dims KDDCUP99 (see footnote) classification 4,900,000 instances 127 dims Fourier+LS 3.6% 20 secs D = 300 5% 36 secs D = 500 14.9% 9 secs D = 500 11.6% 71 mins D = 5000 7.3% 1.5 min D = 50 Binning+LS 5.3% 3 mins P = 350 7.5% 19 mins P = 30 15.3% 1.5 mins P = 30 2.2% 25 mins P = 50 7.3% 35 mins P = 10 CVM 5.5% 51 secs 8.8% 7.5 mins 14.8% 73 mins 2.3% 7.5 hrs 6.2% (18%) 1.4 secs (20 secs) Exact SVM 11% 31 secs ASVM 9% 13 mins SVMTorch 15.1% 7 mins SVMlight 2.2% 44 hrs libSVM 8.3% < 1s SVM+sampling Table 1: Comparison of testing error and training time between ridge regression with random features, Core Vector Machine, and various state-of-the-art exact methods reported in the literature. For classification tasks, the percent of testing points incorrectly predicted is reported, and for regression tasks, the RMS error normalized by the norm of the ground truth. 6 % error Testing error 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 10 training+testing time (sec) 0.5 5 4 3 0 10 2 10 4 Training set size 10 6 2 10 20 30 P 40 50 1200 800 400 10 20 30 40 50 P Figure 3: Accuracy on test data continues to improve as the training set grows. On the Forest dataset, using random binning, doubling the dataset size reduces testing error by up to 40% (left). Error decays quickly as P grows (middle). Training time grows slowly as P grows (right). minw kZ0 w ? yk22 + ?kwk22 , where y denotes the vector of desired outputs and Z denotes the matrix of random features. To evaluate the resulting machine on a datapoint x, we can simply compute w0 z(x). Despite its simplicity, ridge regression with random features is faster than, and provides competitive accuracy with, alternative methods. It also produces very compact functions because only w and a set of O(D) random vectors or a hash-table of partitions need to be retained. Random Fourier features perform better on the tasks that largely rely on interpolation. On the other hand, random binning features perform better on memorization tasks (those for which the standard SVM requires many support vectors), because they explicitly preserve locality in the input space. This difference is most dramatic in the Forest dataset. Figure 3(left) illustrates the benefit of training classifiers on larger datasets, where accuracy continues to improve as more data are used in training. Figure 3(middle) and (right) show that good performance can be obtained even from a modest number of features. 6 Conclusion We have presented randomized features whose inner products uniformly approximate many popular kernels. We showed empirically that providing these features as input to a standard linear learning algorithm produces results that are competitive with state-of-the-art large-scale kernel machines in accuracy, training time, and evaluation time. It is worth noting that hybrids of Fourier features and Binning features can be constructed by concatenating these features. While we have focused on regression and classification, our features can be applied to accelerate other kernel methods, including semi-supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms. In all of these cases, a significant computational speed-up can be achieved by first computing random features and then applying the associated linear technique. 6 7 Acknowledgements We thank Eric Garcia for help on early versions of these features, Sameer Agarwal and James R. Lee for helpful discussions, and Erik Learned-Miller and Andres Corrada-Emmanuel for helpful corrections. References [1] T. Joachims. Training linear SVMs in linear time. In ACM Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2006. [2] M. C. Ferris and T. S. Munson. Interior-point methods for massive Support Vector Machines. SIAM Journal of Optimization, 13(3):783?804, 2003. [3] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal Estimated sub-GrAdient SOlver for SVM. In IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2007. [4] D. DeCoste and D. Mazzoni. Fast query-optimized kernel machine classification via incremental approximate nearest support vectors. In IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2003. [5] J. Platt. Using sparseness and analytic QP to speed training of Support Vector Machines. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 1999. [6] C.-C. Chang and C.-J. Lin. LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines, 2001. Software available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/?cjlin/libsvm. [7] D. Achlioptas, F. McSherry, and B. Sch?olkopf. Sampling techniques for kernel methods. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2001. [8] A. Blum. Random projection, margins, kernels, and feature-selection. LNCS, 3940:52?68, 2006. [9] A. Frieze, R. Kannan, and S. Vempala. Fast monte-carlo algorithms for finding low-rank approximations. In Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), pages 378?390, 1998. [10] P. Drineas and M. W. Mahoney. On the nystrom method for approximating a Gram matrix for improved kernel-based learning. In COLT, pages 323?337, 2005. [11] C. Yang, R. Duraiswami, and L. Davis. Efficient kernel machines using the improved fast gauss transform. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2004. [12] Y. Shen, A. Y. Ng, and M. Seeger. Fast gaussian process regression using KD-Trees. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), 2005. [13] P. Indyk and N. Thaper. Fast image retrieval via embeddings. In International Workshop on Statistical and Computational Theories of Vision, 2003. [14] I. W. Tsang, J. T. Kwok, and P.-M. Cheung. Core Vector Machines: Fast SVM training on very large data sets. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 6:363?392, 2005. [15] W. Rudin. Fourier Analysis on Groups. Wiley Classics Library. Wiley-Interscience, New York, reprint edition edition, 1994. [16] G. Loosli and S. Canu. Comments on the ?Core Vector Machines: Fast SVM training on very large data sets?. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 8:291?301, February 2007. [17] F. Cucker and S. Smale. On the mathematical foundations of learning. Bull. Amer. Soc., 39:1?49, 2001. A Proofs Lemma 1. Suppose a function k(?) : R ? R is twice differentiable and has the form R? ? p(?) max(0, 1? ? ? ) d?. Then p(?) = ? k(?). 0 Proof. We want p so that Z ? k(?) = p(?) max(0, 1 ? ?/?) d? (3) 0 Z ? Z ? p(?) ? 0 d? + = 0 Z ? p(?)(1 ? ?/?) d? = ? Z ? ? To solve for p, differentiate twice w.r.t. to ? to find that k(?) = ? p(?)/?. 7 ? p(?) d? ? ? p(?)/? d?. (4) ? R? ? ? p(?)/? d? and k(?) = Proof of Claim 1. Define s(x, y) ? z(x)0 z(y), and f (x, y) ? s(x, y) ? k(y, x). Since f , and s are shift invariant, as their arguments we use ? ? x ? y ? M? for notational simplicity. M? is compact and has diameter at most twice diam(M), so we can find an -net that covers M? using at most T = (4 diam M/r)d balls of radius r [17]. Let {?i }Ti=1 denote the centers of these balls, and let Lf denote the Lipschitz constant of f . We have |f (?)| <  for all ? ? M? if  |f (?i )| < /2 and Lf < 2r for all i. We bound the probability of these two events. Since f is differentiable, Lf = k?f (?? )k, where ?? = arg max??M? k?f (?)k. We have E[L2f ] = Ek?f (?? )k2 = Ek?s(?? )k2 ? Ek?k(?? )k2 ? Ek?s(?? )k2 ? Ep k?k2 = ?p2 , so by Markov?s inequality, Pr[L2f ? t] ? E[L2f ]/t, or  2 h  i 2r?p Pr Lf ? . (5) ? 2r  The union bound followed by Hoeffding?s inequality applied to the anchors in the -net gives    Pr ?Ti=1 |f (?i )| ? /8 ? 2T exp ?D2 /2 . Combining (5) and (6) gives a bound in terms of the free variable r:     d 2  2r?p 4 diam(M) 2 exp ?D /8 ? . Pr sup |f (?)| ?  ? 1 ? 2 r  ??M? This has the form 1 ? ?1 r?d ? k2 r2 . Setting r =  ?1 ?2 1  d+2 d (6) (7) 2 turns this to 1 ? 2?2d+2 ?1d+2 , and ? diam(M) ? 1 and diam(M) ? 1, proves the first part of the claim. To prove the assuming that p  second part of the claim, pick any probability for the RHS and solve for D. Proof of Claim 2. M can be covered by rectangles over each of which z is constant. Let ?pm be the pitch of the pth grid along the mth dimension. Each grid has at most ddiam(M)/? pm e bins, and P   PP PP 1 overlapping grids produce at most Nm = g=1 ddiam(M)/?gm e ? P + diam(M) p=1 ?pm partitions along the mth dimension. The expected value of the right hand side is P + P diam(M)?. By Markov?s inequality and the union bound, Pr ?dm=1 Nm ? t(P + P diam(M)?) ? 1 ? d/t. That is, with probability 1 ? d/t, along every dimension, we have at most t(P + P diam(M)?) one-dimensional cells. Denote by dmi the width of the ith cell along the mth dimension and observe PNm that i=1 dmi ? diam(M). We further subdivide these cells into smaller rectangles of some small width r to ensure that the kernel k varies very little over each of these cells. This results in at most PNm dmi Nm +diam(M) small one-dimensional cells over each dimension. Plugging in the i=1 d r e ? r 1 and assuming ? diam(M) ? 1, with probability 1 ? d/t, M upper bound for Nm , setting t ? ?P  d 3tP ? diam(M) rectangles of side r centered at {xi }Ti=1 . can be covered with T ? r The condition |z(x, y) ? k(x, y)| ?  on M ? M holds if |z(xi , yi ) ? k(xi , yi )| ?  ? Lk rd and z(x) is constant throughout each rectangle. With rd = 2L k , the union bound followed by Hoeffding?s inequality gives  Pr [?ij |z(xi , yj ) ? k(xi , yj )| ? /2] ? 2T 2 exp ?P 2 /8 (8) Combining this with the probability that z(x) is constant in each cell gives a bound in terms of t:     d P 2 2Lk Pr sup |z(x, y) ? k(x, y)| ?  ?1 ? ? 2(3tP ? diam(M))d exp ? . t  8 x,y?M?M This has the form 1 ? ?1 t?1 ? ?2 td . To prove the claim, set t = upper bound of 1 ? 1 3?1 ?2d+1 . 8  ?1 2?2  1 d+1 , which results in an
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Efficient Inference for Distributions on Permutations Jonathan Huang Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Carlos Guestrin Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] Leonidas Guibas Stanford University [email protected] Abstract Permutations are ubiquitous in many real world problems, such as voting, rankings and data association. Representing uncertainty over permutations is challenging, since there are n! possibilities, and typical compact representations such as graphical models cannot efficiently capture the mutual exclusivity constraints associated with permutations. In this paper, we use the ?low-frequency? terms of a Fourier decomposition to represent such distributions compactly. We present Kronecker conditioning, a general and efficient approach for maintaining these distributions directly in the Fourier domain. Low order Fourier-based approximations can lead to functions that do not correspond to valid distributions. To address this problem, we present an efficient quadratic program defined directly in the Fourier domain to project the approximation onto a relaxed form of the marginal polytope. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real camera-based multi-people tracking setting. 1 Introduction Permutations arise naturally in a variety of real situations such as card games, data association problems, ranking analysis, etc. As an example, consider a sensor network that tracks the positions of n people, but can only gather identity information when they walk near certain sensors. Such mixed-modality sensor networks are an attractive alternative to exclusively using sensors which can measure identity because they are potentially cheaper, easier to deploy, and less intrusive. See [1] for a real deployment. A typical tracking system maintains tracks of n people and the identity of the person corresponding to each track. What makes the problem difficult is that identities can be confused when tracks cross in what we call mixing events. Maintaining accurate track-to-identity assignments in the face of these ambiguities based on identity measurements is known as the Identity Management Problem [2], and is known to be N P -hard. Permutations pose a challenge for probabilistic inference, because distributions on the group of permutations on n elements require storing at least n! ? 1 numbers, which quickly becomes infeasible as n increases. Furthermore, typical compact representations, such as graphical models, cannot capture the mutual exclusivity constraints associated with permutations. Diaconis [3] proposes maintaining a small subset of Fourier coefficients of the actual distribution allowing for a principled tradeoff between accuracy and complexity. Schumitsch et al. [4] use similar ideas to maintain a particular subset of Fourier coefficients of the log probability distribution. Kondor et al. [5] allow for general sets of coefficients, but assume a restrictive form of the observation model in order to exploit an efficient FFT factorization. The main contributions of this paper are: ? A new, simple and general algorithm, Kronecker Conditioning, which performs all probabilistic inference operations completely in the Fourier domain. Our approach is general, in the sense that it can address any transition model or likelihood function that can be represented in the Fourier domain, such as those used in previous work, and can represent the probability distribution with any desired set of Fourier coefficients. ? We show that approximate conditioning can sometimes yield Fourier coefficients which do not correspond to any valid distribution, and present a method for projecting the result back onto a relaxation of the marginal polytope. ? We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real camera-based multi-people tracking setting. 1 2 Filtering over permutations In identity management, a permutation ? represents a joint assignment of identities to internal tracks, with ?(i) being the track belonging to the ith identity. When people walk too closely together, their identities can be confused, leading to uncertainty over ?. To model this uncertainty, we use a Hidden Markov Model on permutations, which is a joint distribution over P (? (1) , . . . , ? (T ) , z (1) , . . . , z (T ) ) which factors as: P (? (1) , . . . , ? (T ) , z (1) , . . . , z (T ) ) = P (z (1) |? (1) ) Y P (z t |? (t) ) ? P (? (t) |? (t?1) ), t (t) (t) where the ? are latent permutations and the z denote observed variables. The conditional probability distribution P (? (t) |? (t?1) ) is called the transition model, and might reflect for example, that the identities belonging to two tracks were swapped with some probability. The distribution P (z (t) |? (t) ) is called the observation model, which might capture a distribution over the color of clothing for each individual. We focus on filtering, in which one queries the HMM for the posterior at some timestep, conditioned on all past observations. Given the distribution P (? (t) |z (1) , . . . , z (t) ), we recursively compute P (? (t+1) |z (1) , . . . , z (t+1) ) in two steps: a prediction/rollup step and a conditioning step. The first updates the distribution by multiplying by the transition model and marginalizing out the P (t+1) (t) previous timestep: P (? (t+1) |z (1) , . . . , z (t) ) = P (? |? )P (? (t) |z (1) , . . . , z (t) ). ? (t) The second conditions the distribution on an observation z (t+1) using Bayes rule: P (? (t+1) |z (1) , . . . , z (t+1) ) ? P (z (t+1) |? (t+1) )P (? (t+1) |z (1) , . . . , z (t) ). Since there are n! permutations, a single update requires O((n!)2 ) flops and is consequently intractable for all but very small n. The approach that we advocate is to maintain a compact approximation to the true distribution based on the Fourier transform. As we discuss later, the Fourier based approximation is equivalent to maintaining a set of low-order marginals, rather than the full joint, which we regard as being analagous to an Assumed Density Filter [6]. 3 Fourier projections of functions on the Symmetric Group Over the last 50 years, the Fourier Transform has been ubiquitously applied to everything digital, particularly with the invention of the Fast Fourier Transform. On the real line, the Fourier Transform is a well-studied method for decomposing a function into a sum of sine and cosine terms over a spectrum of frequencies. Perhaps less familiar, is its group theoretic generalization, which we review in this section with an eye towards approximating functions on the group of permutations, the Symmetric Group. For permutations on n objects, the Symmetric Group will be abbreviated by Sn . The formal definition of the Fourier Transform relies on the theory of group representations, which we briefly discuss first. Our goal in this section is to motivate the idea that the Fourier transform of a distribution P is related to certain marginals of P . For references on this subject, see [3]. Definition 1. A representation of a group G is a map ? from G to a set of invertible d? ? d? matrix operators which preserves algebraic structure in the sense that for all ?1 , ?2 ? G, ?(?1 ?2 ) = ?(?1 ) ? ?(?2 ). The matrices which lie in the image of this map are called the representation matrices, and we will refer to d? as the degree of the representation. Representations play the role of basis functions, similar to that of sinusoids, in Fourier theory. The simplest basis functions are constant functions ? and our first example of a representation is the trivial representation ?0 : G ? R which maps every element of G to 1. As a more pertinent example, we define the 1st order permutation representation of Sn to be the degree n representation, ?1 , which maps a permutation ? to its corresponding permutation matrix given by: [?1 (?)]ij = 1 {?(j) = i}. For example, the permutation in S3 which swaps the second and third elements maps to: 0 1 ?1 (1 7? 1, 2 7? 3, 3 7? 2) = @ 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 A. 0 The ?1 representation can be thought of as a collection of n2 functions at once, one for each matrix entry, [?1 (?)]ij . There are other possible permutation representations - for example the 2nd order unordered permutation representation, ?2 , is defined by the action of a permutation on unordered pairs of objects, ([?(?)]{i,j},{?,k} = 1 {?({?, k}) = {i, j}}), and is a degree n(n?1) representation. 2 And the list goes on to include many more complicated representations. 2 It is useful to think of two representations as being the same if the representation matrices are equal up to some consistent change of basis. This idea is formalized by declaring two representations ? and ? to be equivalent if there exists an invertible matrix C such that C ?1 ? ?(?) ? C = ? (?) for all ? ? G. We write this as ? ? ? . Most representations can be seen as having been built up by smaller representations. We say that a representation ? is reducible if there exist smaller representations ?1 , ?2 such that ? ? ?1 ? ?2 where ? is defined to be the direct sum representation: ?1 ? ?2 (g) , ? ?1 (g) 0 0 ?2 (g) ? . (1) In general, there are infinitely many inequivalent representations. However, for any finite group, there is always a finite collection of atomic representations which can be used to build up any other representation using direct sums. These representations are referred to as the irreducibles of a group, and they are simply the collection of representations which are not reducible. We will refer to the set of irreducibles by R. It can be shown that any representation of a finite group G is equivalent to a direct sum of irreducibles [3], and hence, for any representation ? , there exists a matrices C for which C ?1 ? ? ? C = ??i ?R ? ?i , where the inner ? refers to some finite number of copies of the irreducible ?i . Describing the irreducibles of Sn up to equivalence is a subject unto itself; We will simply say that there is a natural way to order the irreducibles of Sn that corresponds to ?simplicity? in the same way that low frequency sinusoids are simpler than higher frequency ones. We will refer to the irreducibles in this order as ?0 , ?1 , . . . . For example, the first two irreducibles form the first order permutation representation (?1 ? ?0 ? ?1 ), and the second order permutation representation can be formed by the first 3 irreducibles. Irreducible representation matrices are not always orthogonal, but they can always be chosen to be so (up to equivalence). For notational convenience, the irreducible representations in this paper will always be assumed to be orthogonal. 3.1 The Fourier transform On the real line, the Fourier Transform corresponds to computing inner products of a function with sines and cosines at varying frequencies. The analogous definition for finite groups replaces the sinusoids by group representations. Definition 2. Let f : G ? R be any function on a group G and let ? be any representation on G. P The Fourier Transform of f at the representation ? is defined to be: f?? = ? f (?)?(?). There are two important points which distinguish this Fourier Transform from the familiar version on the real line ? it is matrix-valued, and instead of real numbers, the inputs to f? are representations of G. The collection of Fourier Transforms of f at all irreducibles form the Fourier Transform of f . As in the familiar case, there is an inverse transform given by: f (?) = h i 1 X d?k Tr f??Tk ? ?k (?) , |G| (2) k where k indexes over the collection of irreducibles of G. We provide two examples for intuition. For functions on the real line, the Fourier Transform at zero gives the DC component of a signal. This is also true for functions on a group; If f : G ? R is any function, then the Fourier Transform of f at the trivial representation is constant with P f??0 = ? f (?). Thus, for any probability distribution P , we have P??0 = 1. If P were the uniform distribution, then P?? = 0 at all irreducibles except at the trivial representation. The Fourier Transform at ?1 also has a simple interpretation: [f??1 ]ij = X ??Sn f (?)[?1 (?)]ij = X ??Sn f (?)1 {?(j) = i} = X f (?). ?:?(j)=i Thus, if P is a distribution, then P??1 is a matrix of marginal probabilties, where the ij-th element is the marginal probability that a random permutation drawn from P maps element j to i. Similarly, the Fourier transform of P at the second order permutation representation is a matrix of marginal probabilities of the form P (?({i, j}) = {k, ?}). 3 In Section 5, we will discuss function approximation by bandlimiting the Fourier coefficients, but this example should illustrate the fact that maintaining Fourier coefficients at low-order irreducibles is the same as maintaining low-order marginal probabilities, while higher order irreducibles correspond to more complicated marginals. 4 Inference in the Fourier domain Bandlimiting allows for compactly storing a distribution over permutations, but the idea is rather moot if it becomes necessary to transform back to the primal domain each time an inference operation is called. Naively, the Fourier Transform on Sn scales as O((n!)2 ), and even the fastest Fast Fourier Transforms for functions on Sn are no faster than O(n! log(n!)) (see [7] for example). To resolve this issue, we present a formulation of inference which operates solely in the Fourier domain, allowing us to avoid a costly transform. We begin by discussing exact inference in the Fourier domain, which is no more tractable than the original problem because there are n! Fourier coefficients, but it will allow us to discuss the bandlimiting approximation in the next section. There are two operations to consider: prediction/rollup, and conditioning. The assumption for the rest of this section is that the Fourier Transforms of the transition and observation models are known. We discuss methods for obtaining the models in Section 7. 4.1 Fourier prediction/rollup We will consider one particular type of transition model ? that of a random walk over a group. This model assumes that ? (t+1) is generated from ? (t) by drawing a random permutation ? (t) from some distribution Q(t) and setting ? (t+1) = ? (t) ? (t) . In our identity management example, ? (t) represents a random identity permutation that might occur among tracks when they get close to each other (a mixing event), but the random walk model appears in other applications such as modeling card shuffles [3]. The Fourier domain Prediction/Rollup step is easily formulated using the convolution theorem (see also [3]): Proposition 3. Let Q and P be probability distributions on Sn . Define the convolution ofh Q andiP to P \ be the function [Q ? P ] (?1 ) = ?2 Q(?1 ? ?2?1 )P (?2 ). Then for any representation ?, Q ?P = ? b ? ? Pb? , where the operation on the right side is matrix multiplication. Q The Prediction/Rollup step for the random walk transition model can be written as a convolution: P (? (t+1) ) = X Q(t) (? (t) )?P (? (t) ) = {(? (t) ,? (t) ) : ? (t+1) =? (t) ?? (t) } X ? (t) h i Q(t) (? (t+1) ?(? (t) )?1 )P (? (t) ) = Q(t) ? P (? (t+1) ). (t) b (t) Then assuming that Pb? and Q ? are given, the prediction/rollup update rule is simply: b (t) ? Pb(t) . Pb?(t+1) ? Q ? ? Note that the update requires only knowledge of P? and does not require P . Furthermore, the update is pointwise in the Fourier domain in the sense that the coefficients at the representation ? affect (t+1) Pb? only at ?. 4.2 Fourier conditioning An application of Bayes rule to find a posterior distribution P (?|z) after observing some evidence z requires a pointwise product of likelihood L(z|?) and P prior P (?), followed by a normalization step. We showed earlier that the normalization constant ? L(z|?) ? P (?) is given by the Fourier trans(t) P (t) at the trivial representation ? and therefore the normalization step of conditioning form of L\ i h (t) P (t) . can be implemented by simply dividing each Fourier coefficient by the scalar L\ ?0 The pointwise product of two functions f and g, however, is trickier to formulate in the Fourier domain. For functions on the real line, the pointwise product of functions can be implemented by convolving the Fourier coefficients of f? and g?, and so a natural question is: can we apply a similar operation for functions over other groups? Our answer to this is that there is an analogous (but more complicated) notion of convolution in the Fourier domain of a general finite group. We present a convolution-based conditioning algorithm which we call Kronecker Conditioning, which, in contrast to the pointwise nature of the Fourier Domain prediction/rollup step, and much like convolution, smears the information at an irreducible ?k to other irreducibles. 4 Fourier transforming the pointwise product Our approach to Fourier Transforming the pointwise product in terms of f? and g? is to manipulate the function f (?)g(?) so that it can be seen as the result of an inverse Fourier Transform. Hence, the goal will be to find matrices Ak (as a function of f?, g?) such that for any ? ? G, f (?) ? g(?) = ? ? 1 X d?k Tr ATk ? ?k (?) , |G| (3) k h i where Ak = fcg . For any ? ? G we can write the pointwise product in terms f? and g? using the ?k inverse Fourier Transform (Equation 2): f (?) ? g(?) = = " # " # ? ? ? ? 1 X 1 X T T ? d?i Tr f?i ? ?i (?) ? d?j Tr g??j ? ?j (?) |G| i |G| j ? ?2 X h ? ? ? ?i 1 d?i d?j Tr f??Ti ? ?i (?) ? Tr g??Tj ? ?j (?) . |G| i,j (4) Now we want to manipulate this product of traces in the last line to be just one trace (as in Equation 3), by appealing to some properties of the matrix Kronecker product. The connection to the pointwise product (first observed in [8]), lies in the property that for any matrices U, V , Tr (U ? V ) = (Tr U ) ? (Tr V ). Applying this to Equation 4, we have: ? ? ? ? Tr f??Ti ? ?i (?) ? Tr g??Tj ? ?j (?) ?? ? ? ?? f??Ti ? ?i (?) ? g??Tj ? ?j (?) ?? ? ?T Tr f??i ? g??j ? (?i (?) ? ?j (?)) , = Tr = (5) where the last line follows by standard matrix properties. The term on the right, ?i (?) ? ?j (?), itself happens to be a representation, called the Kronecker Product Representation. In general, the Kronecker Product representation is reducible, and so it can decomposed into a direct sum of irreducibles. This means that if ?i and ?j are any two irreducibles of G, there exists a similarity transform Cij such that for any ? ? G, ?1 Cij ? [?i ? ?j ] (?) ? Cij = zijk MM k ?k (?). ?=1 The ? symbols here refer to a matrix direct sum as in Equation 1, k indexes over all irreducible representations of Sn , while ? indexes over a number of copies of ?k which appear in the decomposition. We index blocks on the right side of this equation by pairs of indices (k, ?). The number of copies of each ?k is denoted by the integer zijk , the collection of which, taken over all triples (i, j, k), are commonly referred to as the Clebsch-Gordan series. Note that we allow the zijk to be zero, in which case ?k does not contribute to the direct sum. The matrices Cij are known as the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients. The Kronecker Product Decomposition problem is that of finding the irreducible components of the Kronecker product representation, and thus to find the Clebsch-Gordan series/coefficients for each pair of representations (?i , ?j ). Decomposing the Kronecker product inside Equation 5 using the Clebsch-Gordan series/coefficients yields the desired Fourier Transform, which we summarize here: Proposition 4. Let f?, g? be the Fourier Transforms of functions f and g respectively,  and for each ?1 ? ordered pair of irreducibles (?i , ?j ), define the matrix: Aij , C ? f? ? g?? ? Cij . Then the ij i j Fourier tranform of the pointwise product f g is: h i fcg ?k zijk X k? 1 X Aij , d?i d?j = d?k |G| ij (6) ?=1 z ijk where Ak? ?k . ij is the block of Aij corresponding to the (k, ?) block in ?k ?? See the Appendix for a full proof of Proposition 4. The Clebsch-Gordan series, zijk , plays an important role in Equation 6, which says that the (?i , ?j ) crossterm contributes to the pointwise product at ?k only when zijk > 0. For example, ?1 ? ?1 ? ?0 ? ?1 ? ?2 ? ?3 . So z1,1,k = 1 for k ? 3 and is zero otherwise. 5 (7) Unfortunately, there are no analytical formulas for finding the Clebsch-Gordan series or coefficients, and in practice, these computations can take a long time. We emphasize however, that as fundamental quantities, like the digits of ?, they need only be computed once and stored in a table for future reference. Due to space limitations, we will not provide complete details on computing these numbers. We refer the reader to Murnaghan [9], who provides general formulas for computing ClebschGordan series for pairs of low-order irreducibles, and to Appendix 1 for details about computing Clebsch-Gordan coefficients. We will also make precomputed coefficients available on the web. 5 Approximate inference by bandlimiting We approximate the probability distribution P (?) by fixing a bandlimit B and maintaining the Fourier transform of P only at irreducibles ?0 , . . . ?B . We refer to this set of irreducibles as B. As on the real line, smooth functions are generally well approximated by only a few Fourier coefficients, while ?wigglier? functions require more. For example, when B = 3, B is the set ?0 , ?1 , ?2 , and ?3 , which corresponds to maintaining marginal probabilities of the form P (?((i, j)) = (k, ?)). During inference, we follow the procedure outlined in the previous section but ignore the higher order terms which are not maintained. Pseudocode for bandlimited prediction/rollup and Kronecker conditioning is given in Figures 1 and 2. Since the Prediction/Rollup step is pointwise in the Fourier domain, the update is exact for the maintained irreducibles because higher order irreducibles cannot affect those below the bandlimit. As in [5], we find that the error from bandlimiting creeps in through the conditioning step. For example, Equation 7 shows that if B = 1 (so that we maintain first-order marginals), then the pointwise product spreads information to second-order marginals. Conversely, pairs of higher-order irreducibles may propagate information to lower-order irreducibles. If a distribution is diffuse, then most of the energy is stored in low-order Fourier coefficients anyway, and so this is not a big problem. However, it is when the distribution is sharply concentrated at a small subset of permutations, that the low-order Fourier projection is unable to faithfully approximate the distribution, in many circumstances, resulting in a bandlimited Fourier Transform with negative ?marginal probabilities?! To combat this problem, we present a method for enforcing nonnnegativity. Projecting to a relaxed marginal polytope The marginal polytope, M, is the set of marginals which are consistent with some joint distribution over permutations. We project our approximation onto a relaxation of the marginal polytope, M? , defined by linear inequality constraints that marginals be nonnegative, and linear equality constraints that they correspond to some legal Fourier transform. Intuitively, our relaxation produces matrices of marginals which are doubly stochastic (rows and columns sum to one and all entries are nonnegative), and satisfy lower-order marginal consistency (different high-order marginals are consistent at lower orders). After each conditioning step, we apply a ?correction? to the approximate posterior P (t) by finding the bandlimited function in M? which is closest to P (t) in an L2 sense. To perform the projection, we employ the Plancherel Theorem [3] which relates the L2 distance between functions on Sn to a distance metric in the Fourier domain.  T   1 X Proposition 5. X 2 ? ? (f (?) ? g(?)) = d?k Tr f?k ? g??k ? f?k ? g??k . (8) |G| ? k We formulate the optimization as a quadratic program where the objective is to minimize the right side of Equation 8 ? the sum is taken only over the set of maintained irreducibles, B, and subject to the linear constraints which define M? . We remark that even though the projection will always produce a Fourier transform corresponding to nonnegative marginals, there might not necessarily exist a joint probability distribution on Sn consistent with those marginals. In the case of first-order marginals, however, the existence of a consistent joint distribution is guaranteed by the Birkhoff-von Neumann theorem [10], which states that a matrix is doubly stochastic if and only if it can be written as a convex combination of permutation matrices. And so for the case of first-order marginals, our relaxation is in fact, exact. 6 Related Work The Identity Management problem was first introduced in [2] which maintains a doubly stochastic first order belief matrix to reason over data associations. Schumitsch et al. [4] exploits a similar idea, but formulated the problem in log-space. 6 Figure 1: Pseudocode for the Fourier Prediction/Rollup Algorithm. P REDICTION ROLLUP (t+1) ? (t) ? (t) foreach ?k ? B do P??k ?Q ?k ? P?k ; Figure 2: Pseudocode for the Kronecker Conditioning Algorithm. K RONECKER C ONDITIONING h i (t) P (t) foreach ?k ? B do L\ ?k ? 0 //Initialize Posterior //Pointwise Product foreach ?i ? B do foreach ?j ? B do z ? CGseries(?i , ?j ) ; ? ? T Cij ? CGcoef f icients(?i , ?j ) ; Aij ? Cij ? f??i ? g??j ? Cij ; for ?k ? B such that zijk 6= 0 do for ?h = 1 to zki do h i d? d? (t) P (t) (t) P (t) L\ ? L\ + d?i n!j Ak? //Ak? ij ij is the (k, ?) block of Aij k ?k ?k h i (t) P (t) Z ? L\ ; ?0 h i i h (t) P (t) (t) P (t) //Normalization foreach ?k ? B do L\ ? Z1 L\ ?k ?k Kondor et al. [5] were the first to show that the data association problem could be approximately handled via the Fourier Transform. For conditioning, they exploit a modified FFT factorization which works on certain simplified observation models. Our approach generalizes the type of observations that can be handled in [5] and is equivalent in the simplified model that they present. We require O(D3 n2 ) time in their setting. Their FFT method saves a factor of D due to the fact that certain representation matrices can be shown to be sparse. Though we do not prove it, we observe that the Clebsch-Gordan coefficients, Cij are typically similarly sparse, which yields an equivalent running time in practice. In addition, Kondor et al. do not address the issue of projecting onto valid marginals, which, as we show in our experimental results, is fundamental in practice. Willsky [8] was the first to formulate a nonabelian version of the FFT algorithm (for Metacyclic groups) as well as to note the connection between pointwise products and Kronecker product decompositions for general finite groups. In this paper, we address approximate inference, which is necessary given the n! complexity of inference for the Symmetric group. 7 Experimental results For small n, we compared our algorithm to exact inference on synthetic datasets in which tracks are drawn at random to be observed or swapped. For validation we measure the L1 distance between true and approximate marginal distributions. In (Fig. 3(a)), we call several mixings followed by a single observation, after which we measured error. As expected, the Fourier approximation is better when there are either more mixing events, or when more Fourier coefficients are maintained. In (Fig. 3(b)) we allow for consecutive conditioning steps and we see that that the projection step is fundamental, especially when mixing events are rare, reducing the error dramatically. Comparing running times, it is clear that our algorithm scales gracefully compared to the exact solution (Fig. 3(c)). We also evaluated our algorithm on data taken from a real network of 8 cameras (Fig. 3(d)). In the data, there are n = 11 people walking around a room in fairly close proximity. To handle the fact that people can freely leave and enter the room, we maintain a list of the tracks which are external to the room. Each time a new track leaves the room, it is added to the list and a mixing event is called to allow for m2 pairwise swaps amongst the m external tracks. The number of mixing events is approximately the same as the number of observations. For each observation, the network returns a color histogram of the blob associated with one track. The task after conditioning on each observation is to predict identities for all tracks inside the room, and the evaluation metric is the fraction of accurate predictions. We compared against a baseline approach of predicting the identity of a track based on the most recently observed histogram at that track. This approach is expected to be accurate when there are many observations and discriminative appearance models, neither of which our problem afforded. As (Fig. 3(e)) shows, 7 Error of Kronecker Conditioning, n=8 Running time of 10 forward algorithm iterations Projection versus No Projection (n=6) 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 5 10 # Mixing Events 15 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 b=1, w/o Projection b=2, w/o Projection b=3, w/o Projection b=1, w/Projection b=2, w/Projection b=3, w/Projection b=0 (Uniform distribution) Running time in seconds 0.08 Averaged over 250 timesteps 5 b=1 b=2 b=3 L1 error at 1st order Marginals L1 error at 1st order marginals 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 4 b=1 b=2 b=3 exact 3 2 1 0 4 0.8 5 Fraction of Observation events 6 n 7 8 (a) Error of Kronecker Con- (b) Projection vs. No Projec- (c) n versus Running Time ditioning tion % Tracks correctly Identified 60 Omniscient 50 w/Projection 40 w/o Projection 30 20 Baseline 10 0 (d) Sample Image (e) Accuracy for Camera Data Figure 3: Evaluation on synthetic ((a)-(c)) and real camera network ((d),(e)) data. both the baseline and first order model(without projection) fared poorly, while the projection step dramatically boosted the accuracy. To illustrate the difficulty of predicting based on appearance alone, the rightmost bar reflects the performance of an omniscient tracker who knows the result of each mixing event and is therefore left only with the task of distinguishing between appearances. 8 Conclusions We presented a formulation of hidden Markov model inference in the Fourier domain. In particular, we developed the Kronecker Conditioning algorithm which performs a convolution-like operation on Fourier coefficients to find the Fourier transform of the posterior distribution. We argued that bandlimited conditioning can result in Fourier coefficients which correspond to no distribution, but that the problem can be remedied by projecting to a relaxation of the marginal polytope. Our evaluation on data from a camera network shows that our methods outperform well when compared to the optimal solution in small problems, or to an omniscient tracker in large problems. Furthermore, we demonstrated that our projection step is fundamental to obtaining these high-quality results. We conclude by remarking that the mathematical framework developed in this paper is quite general. In fact, both the prediction/rollup and conditioning formulations hold over any finite group, providing a principled method for approximate inference for problems with underlying group structure. Acknowledgments This work is supported in part by the ONR under MURI N000140710747, the ARO under grant W911NF-06-1-0275, the NSF under grants DGE-0333420, EEEC-540865, Nets-NOSS 0626151 and TF 0634803, and by the Pennsylvania Infrastructure Technology Alliance (PITA). Carlos Guestrin was also supported in part by an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship. We thank Kyle Heath for helping with the camera data and Emre Oto, and Robert Hough for valuable discussions. References [1] Y. Ivanov, A. Sorokin, C. Wren, and I. Kaur. Tracking people in mixed modality systems. Technical Report TR2007-11, MERL, 2007. [2] J. Shin, L. Guibas, and F. Zhao. A distributed algorithm for managing multi-target identities in wireless ad-hoc sensor networks. In IPSN, 2003. [3] P. Diaconis. Group Representations in Probability and Statistics. IMS Lecture Notes, 1988. [4] B. Schumitsch, S. Thrun, G. Bradski, and K. Olukotun. The information-form data association filter. In NIPS. 2006. [5] R. Kondor, A. Howard, and T. Jebara. Multi-object tracking with representations of the symmetric group. In AISTATS, 2007. [6] X. Boyen and D. Koller. Tractable inference for complex stochastic processes. In UAI, 1998. [7] R. Kondor. Sn ob: a C++ library for fast Fourier transforms on the symmetric group, 2006. Available at http://www.cs.columbia.edu/?risi/Snob/. [8] A. Willsky. On the algebraic structure of certain partially observable finite-state markov processes. Information and Control, 38:179?212, 1978. [9] F.D. Murnaghan. The analysis of the kronecker product of irreducible representations of the symmetric group. American Journal of Mathematics, 60(3):761?784, 1938. [10] J. van Lint and R.M. Wilson. A Course in Combinatorics. Cambridge University Press, 2001. 8
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Invariant Common Spatial Patterns: Alleviating Nonstationarities in Brain-Computer Interfacing Benjamin Blankertz1,2 Motoaki Kawanabe2 Friederike U. Hohlefeld4 Ryota Tomioka3 Vadim Nikulin5 Klaus-Robert M?ller1,2 1 TU Berlin, Dept. of Computer Science, Machine Learning Laboratory, Berlin, Germany 2 Fraunhofer FIRST (IDA), Berlin, Germany 3 Dept. Mathematical Informatics, IST, The University of Tokyo, Japan 4 Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Berlin, Germany 5 Dept. of Neurology, Campus Benjamin Franklin, Charit? University Medicine Berlin, Germany {blanker,krm}@cs.tu-berlin.de Abstract Brain-Computer Interfaces can suffer from a large variance of the subject conditions within and across sessions. For example vigilance fluctuations in the individual, variable task involvement, workload etc. alter the characteristics of EEG signals and thus challenge a stable BCI operation. In the present work we aim to define features based on a variant of the common spatial patterns (CSP) algorithm that are constructed invariant with respect to such nonstationarities. We enforce invariance properties by adding terms to the denominator of a Rayleigh coefficient representation of CSP such as disturbance covariance matrices from fluctuations in visual processing. In this manner physiological prior knowledge can be used to shape the classification engine for BCI. As a proof of concept we present a BCI classifier that is robust to changes in the level of parietal ? -activity. In other words, the EEG decoding still works when there are lapses in vigilance. 1 Introduction Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) translate the intent of a subject measured from brain signals directly into control commands, e.g. for a computer application or a neuroprosthesis ([1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]). The classical approach to brain-computer interfacing is operant conditioning ([2, 7]) where a fixed translation algorithm is used to generate a feedback signal from the electroencephalogram (EEG). Users are not equipped with a mental strategy they should use, rather they are instructed to watch a feedback signal and using the feedback to find out ways to voluntarily control it. Successful BCI operation is reinforced by a reward stimulus. In such BCI systems the user adaption is crucial and typically requires extensive training. Recently machine learning techniques were applied to the BCI field and allowed to decode the subject?s brain signals, placing the learning task on the machine side, i.e. a general translation algorithm is trained to infer the specific characteristics of the user?s brain signals [8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]. This is done by a statistical analysis of a calibration measurement in which the subject performs well-defined mental acts like imagined movements. Here, in principle no adaption of the user is required, but it is to be expected that users will adapt their behaviour during feedback operation. The idea of the machine learning approach is that a flexible adaption of the system relieves a good amount of the learning load from the subject. Most BCI systems are somewhere between those extremes. 1 Although the proof-of-concept of machine learning based BCI systems1 was given some years ago, several major challenges are still to be faced. One of them is to make the system invariant to non task-related fluctuations of the measured signals during feedback. These fluctuations may be caused by changes in the subject?s brain processes, e.g. change of task involvement, fatigue etc., or by artifacts such as swallowing, blinking or yawning. The calibration measurement that is used for training in machine learning techniques is recorded during 10-30 min, i.e. a relatively short period of time and typically in a monotone atmosphere, so this data does not contain all possible kinds of variations to be expected during on-line operation. The present contribution focusses on invariant feature extraction for BCI. In particular we aim to enhance the invariance properties of the common spatial patterns (CSP, [15]) algorithm. CSP is the solution of a generalized eigenvalue problem and has as such a strong link to the maximization of a Rayleigh coefficient, similar to Fisher?s discriminant analysis. Prior work by Mika et al. [16] in the context of kernel Fisher?s discriminant analysis contains the key idea that we will follow: noise and distracting signal aspects with respect to which we want to make our feature extractor invariant is added to the denominator of a Rayleigh coefficient. In other words, our prior knowledge about the noise type helps to re-design the optimization of CSP feature extraction. We demonstrate how our invariant CSP (iCSP) technique can be used to make a BCI system invariant to changes in the power of the parietal ? -rhythm (see Section 2) reflecting, e.g. changes in vigilance. Vigilance changes are among the most pressing challenges when robustifying a BCI system for long-term real-world applications. In principle we could also use an adaptive BCI, however, adaptation typically has a limited time scale which might not allow to follow fluctuations quickly enough. Furthermore online adaptive BCI systems have so far only been operated with 4-9 channels. We would like to stress that adaptation and invariant classification are no mutually exclusive alternatives but rather complementary approaches when striving for the same goal: a BCI system that is invariant to undesired distortions and nonstationarities. 2 Neurophysiology and Experimental Paradigms Neurophysiological background. Macroscopic brain activity during resting wakefulness contains distinct ?idle? rhythms located over various brain areas, e.g. the parietal ? -rhythm (7-13 Hz) can be measured over the visual cortex [17] and the ? -rhythm can be measured over the pericentral sensorimotor cortices in the scalp EEG, usually with a frequency of about 8?14 Hz ([18]). The strength of the parietal ? -rhythm reflects visual processing load as well as attention and fatigue resp. vigilance. The moment-to-moment amplitude fluctuations of these local rhythms reflect variable functional states of the underlying neuronal cortical networks and can be used for brain-computer interfacing. Specifically, the pericentral ? - and ? rythms are diminished, or even almost completely blocked, by movements of the somatotopically corresponding body part, independent of their active, passive or reflexive origin. Blocking effects are visible bilateral but with a clear predominance contralateral to the moved limb. This attenuation of brain rhythms is termed event-related desynchronization (ERD) and the dual effect of enhanced brain rhythms is called event-related synchronization (ERS) (see [19]). Since a focal ERD can be observed over the motor and/or sensory cortex even when a subject is only imagining a movement or sensation in the specific limb, this feature can be used for BCI control: The discrimination of the imagination of movements of left hand vs. right hand vs. foot can be based on the somatotopic arrangement of the attenuation of the ? and/or ? rhythms. However the challenge is that due to the volume conduction EEG signal recorded at the scalp is a mixture of many cortical activities that have different spatial localizations; for example, at the electrodes over the mortor cortex, the signal not only contains the ? -rhythm that we are interested in but also the projection of parietal ? -rhythm that has little to do with the motor-imagination. To this end, spatial filtering is an indispensable technique; that is to take a linear combination of signals recorded over EEG channels and extract only the component that we are interested in. In particular the CSP algorithm that optimizes spatial filters with respect to discriminability is a good candidate for feature extraction. Experimental Setup. In this paper we evaluate the proposed algorithm on off-line data in which the nonstationarity is induced by having two different background conditions for the same primary 1 Note: In our exposition we focus on EEG-based BCI systems that does not rely on evoked potentials (for an extensive overview of BCI systems including invasive and systems based on evoked potentials see [1]). 2 0 ?0.05 Figure 1: Topographies of r2 ?values (multiplied by the sign of the difference) quantifying the difference in log band-power in the alpha band (8?12 Hz) between different recording sessions: Left: Difference between imag_move and imag_lett. Due to lower visual processing demands, alpha power in occipital areas is stronger in imag_lett. Right: Difference between imag_move and sham_feedback. The latter has decreased alpha power in centro-parietal areas. Note the different sign in the colormaps. 0.5 0.4 ?0.1 ?0.15 0.3 ?0.2 0.2 ?0.25 0.1 ?0.3 0 task. The ultimate challenge will be on-line feedback with strong fluctuations of task demands etc, a project envisioned for the near future. We investigate EEG recordings from 4 subjects (all from whom we have an ?invariance measurement?, see below). Brain activity was recorded from the scalp with multi-channel amplifiers using 55 EEG channels. In the ?calibration measurement? all 4.5?6 seconds one of 3 different visual stimuli indicated for 3 seconds which mental task the subject should accomplish during that period. The investigated mental tasks were imagined movements of the left hand, the right hand, and the right foot. There were two types of visual stimulation: (1: imag_lett) targets were indicated by letters (L, R, F) appearing at a central fixation cross and (2: imag_move) a randomly moving small rhomboid with either its left, right or bottom corner filled to indicate left or right hand or foot movement, respectively. Since the movement of the object was independent from the indicated targets, target-uncorrelated eye movements are induced. Due to the different demands in visual processing, the background brain activity can be expected to differ substancially in those two types of recordings. The topography of the r2 ?values (bi-serial correlation coefficient of feature values with labels) of the log band-power difference between imag_move and imag_lett is shown in the left plot of Fig. 2. It shows a pronounced differene in parietal areas. A sham_feedback paradigm was designed in order to charaterize invariance properties needed for stable real-world BCI applications. In this measurement the subjects received a fake feedback sequence which was preprogrammed. The aim of this recording was to collect data during a large variety of mental states and actions that are not correlated with the BCI control states (motor imagery of hands and feet). Subjects were told that they could control the feedback in some way that they should find out, e.g. with eye movements or muscle activity. They were instructed not to perform movements of hands, arms, legs and feet. The type of feedback was a standard 1D cursor control. In each trial the cursor starts in the middle and should be moved to either the left or right side as indicated by a target cue. When the cursor touched the left or right border, a response (correct or false) was shown. Furthermore the number of hits and misses was shown. The preprogrammed ?feedback? signal was constructed such that it was random in the beginning and then alternating periods of increasingly more hits and periods with chance level performance. This was done to motivate the subjects to try a variety of different actions and to induce different states of mood (satisfaction during ?successful? periods and anger resp. disfavor during ?failure?). The right plot of Fig. 2 visualizes the difference in log band-power between imag_move and sham_feedback. A decreased alpha power in centro-parietal areas during sham_feedback can be observed. Note that this recording includes much more variations of background mental activity than the difference between imag_move and imag_lett. 3 Methods Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) Analysis. The CSP technique ([15]) allows to determine spatial filters that maximize the variance of signals of one condition and at the same time minimize the variance of signals of another condition. Since variance of band-pass filtered signals is equal to bandpower, CSP filters are well suited to discriminate mental states that are characterized by ERD/ERS effects ([20]). As such it has been well used in BCI systems ([8, 14]) where CSP filters are calculated individually for each subject on the data of a calibration measurement. Technically the Common Spatial Pattern (CSP) [21] algorithm gives spatial filters based on a discriminative criterion. Let X1 and X2 be the (time ? channel) data matrices of the band-pass filtered 3 EEG signals (concatenated trials) under the two conditions (e.g., right-hand or left-hand imagination, respectively2) and ?1 and ?2 be the corresponding estimates of the covariance matrices ?i = Xi> Xi . We define the two matrices Sd and Sc as follows: Sd = ?(1) ? ?(2) : discriminative activity matrix, Sc = ? : common activity matrix. (1) +? (2) The CSP spatial filter v ? RC (C is the number of channels) can be obtained by extremizing the Rayleigh coefficient: {max, min}v?RC v> S d v . v> S c v (1) This can be done by solving a generalized eigenvalue problem. Sd v = ? Sc v. (2) The eigenvalue ? is bounded between ?1 and 1; a large positive eigenvalue corresponds to a projection of the signal given by v that has large power in the first condition but small in the second condition; the converse is true for a large negative eigenvalue. The largest and the smallest eigenvalues correspond to the maximum and the minimum of the Rayleigh coefficient problem (Eq. (1)). Note that v> Sd v = v> ?1 v ? v> ?2 v is the average power difference in two conditions that we want to maximize. On the other hand, the projection of the activity that is common to two classes v> Sc v should be minimized because it doesn?t contribute to the discriminability. Using the same idea from [16] we can rewrite the Rayleigh problem (Eq. (1)) as follows: min v?RC v> Sc v, s.t. v> ?1 v ? v> ?2 v = ? , which can be interpreted as finding the minimum norm v with the condition that the average power difference between two conditions to be ? . The norm is defined by the common activity matrix Sc . In the next section, we extend the notion of Sc to incorporate any disturbances that is common to two classes that we can measure a priori. In this paper we call filter the generalized eigenvectors v j ( j = 1, . . . ,C) of the generalized eigenvalue problem (Eq. (2)) or a similar problem discussed in the next section. Moreover we denote by V the matrix we obtain by putting the C generalized eigenvectors into columns, namely V = {v j }Cj=1 ? RC?C and call patterns the row vectors of the inverse A = V ?1 . Note that a filter v j ? RC has its corresponding pattern a j ? RC ; a filter v j extracts only the activity spanned by a j and cancels out all other activities spanned by ai (i 6= j); therefore a pattern a j tells what the filter v j is extracting out (see Fig. 2). For classification the features of single-trials are calculated as the log-variance in CSP projected signals. Here only a few (2 to 6) patterns are used. The selection of patterns is typically based on eigenvalues. But when a large amount of calibration data is not available it is advisable to use a more refined technique to select the patterns or to manually choose them by visual inspection. The variance features are approximately chi-square distributed. Taking the logarithm makes them similar to gaussian distributions, so a linear classifier (e.g., linear discriminant analysis) is fine. For the evaluation in this paper we used the CSPs corresponding the the two largest and the two smallest eigenvalues and used linear disciminant analysis for classification. The CSP algorithm, several extentions as well as practical issues are reviewed in detail in [15]. Invariant CSP. The CSP spatial filters extracted as above are optimized for the calibration measurement. However, in online operation of the BCI system different non task-related modulations of brain signals may occur which are not suppressed by the CSP filters. The reason may be that these modulations have not been recorded in the calibration measurement or that they have been so infrequent that they are not consistently reflected in the statistics (e.g. when they are not equally distributed over the two conditions). The proposed iCSP method minimizes the influence of modulations that can be characterized in advance by a covariance matrix. In this manner we can code neurophysiological prior knowledge 2 We use the term covariance for zero-delay second order statistics between channels and not for the statistical variability. Since we assume the signal to be band-pass filtered, the second order statistics reflects band power. 4 or further information such as the tangent covariance matrix ([22]) into such a covariante matrix ?. In the following motivation we assume that ? is the covariance matrix of a signal matrix Y . Using (1) (1) the notions from above, the objective is then to calculate spatial filters v j such that var(X1 v j ) is (1) (1) (2) maximized and var(X2 v j ) and var(Y v j ) are minimized. Dually spatial filters v j are determined (2) (2) (2) that maximize var(X2 v j ) and minimize var(X1 v j ) and var(Y v j ). Pratically this can be accomplished by solving the following two generalized eigenvalue problems: > V (1) ?1V (1) = D(1) V (2) > ?2V (2) = D(2) > and V (1) ((1?? )(?1 + ?2 ) + ? ?)V (1) = I and V (2) > (3) ((1?? )(?1 + ?2 ) + ? ?)V (2) = I (4) where ? ? [0, 1] is a hyperparameter to trade-off the discrimination of the training classes (X1 , X2 ) against invariance (as characterized by ?). Section 4 discusses the selection of parame(1) (1) (1) ter ? . Filters v j with high eigenvalues d j provide not only high var(X1 v j ) but also small (1) > vj (1) (1) (1) (1) ((1 ? ? )?2 + ? ?)v j = 1 ? (1 ? ? )d j , i.e. small var(X2 v j ) and small var(Y v j ). The dual (2) is true for the selection of filters from v j . Note that for ? = 0.5 there is a strong connection to the one-vs-rest strategy for 3-class CSP ([23]). (1) Features for classification are calculated as log-variance using the two filters from each of v j and (2) v j corresponding to the largest eigenvalues. Note that the idea of iCSP is in the spirit of the invariance constraints in (kernel) Fisher?s Discriminant proposed in [16]. A Theoretical Investigation of iCSP by Influence Analysis. As mentioned, iCSP is aiming at robust spatial filtering against disturbances whose covariance ? can be anticipated from prior knowledge. Influence analysis is a statistical tool with which we can assess robustness of inference procedures [24]. Basically, it evaluates the effect in inference procedures, if we add a small perturbation of O(? ), where ?  1. For example, influence functions for the component analyses such as PCA and CCA have been discussed so far [25, 26]. We applied the machinery to iCSP, in order to check whether iCSP really reduces influence caused by the disturbance at least in local sense. For this purpose, we have the following lemma (its proof is included in the Appendix). Lemma 1 (Influence of generalized eigenvalue problems) Let ?k and wk be k-th eigenvalue and eigenvector of the generalized eigvenvalue problem Aw = ? Bw, (5) respectively. Suppose that the matrices A and B are perturbed with small matrices ? ? and ? P where ?  1. Then the eigenvalues w e k and eigenvectors e ?k of the purterbed problem (A + ? ?)e w=e ? (B + ? P)e w (6) can be expanded as ?k + ? ?k + o(? ) and wk + ?? k + o(? ), where ?k = w> k (? ? ?k P)wk , 1 ? k = ?Mk (? ? ?k P)wk ? (w> Pwk )wk , 2 k (7) Mk := B?1/2 (B?1/2 AB?1/2 ? ?k I)+ B?1/2 and the suffix ?+? denotes Moore-Penrose matrix inverse. The generalized eigenvalue problem eqns (3) and (4) can be rephrased as ?1 v = d{(1 ? ? )(?1 + ?2 ) + ? ?}v, ?2 u = c{(1 ? ? )(?1 + ?2 ) + ? ?}u. For simplicity, we consider here the simplest perturbation of the covariances as ?1 ? ?1 + ? ? and ?2 ? ?1 + ? ?. In this case, the perturbation matrices in the lemma can be expressed as ?1 = ?, ?2 = ?, P = 2(1 ? ? )?. Therefore, we get the expansions of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors as dk + ? ?1k , ck + ? ?2k , vk + ?? 1k and uk + ?? 2k , where ?1k = {1 ? 2(1 ? ? )dk}v> k ?vk , ? 1k = ? 2k = ?2k = {1 ? 2(1 ? ? )ck}u> k ?uk , ?{1 ? 2(1 ? ? )dk}M1k ?vk ? (1 ? ? )(v> k ?vk )vk , ?{1 ? 2(1 ? ? )ck}M2k ?uk ? (1 ? ? )(u> k ?uk )uk , 5 (8) (9) (10) original CSP invariant CSP original CSP ? error: 10.7% / 11.4% / 12.9% / 37.9% 10.7% alpha=0.0 ?=0 filter 11.4% alpha=0.5 ?=0.5 12.9% 37.9% alpha=1.0 ?=1 alpha=2.0 ?=2 errors pattern invariant CSP ? error: 9.3% / 10.0% / 9.3% / 11.4% 9.3% 10.0% 9.3% 11.4% alpha=0.0 ?=0 alpha=0.5 ?=0.5 alpha=1.0 ?=1 alpha=2.0 ?=2 filter pattern Figure 2: Comparison of CSP and iCSP on test data with artificially increased occipital alpha. The upper plots show the classifier output on the test data with different degrees of alpha added (factors ? = 0, 0.5, 1, 2). The lower panel shows the filter/pattern coefficients topographically mapped on the scalp from original CSP (left) and iCSP (right). Here the invariance property was defined with respect to the increase in the alpha activity in the visual cortex (occipital location) using an eyes open/eyes closed recording. See Section 3 for the definition of filter and pattern. M1k := ??1/2 (??1/2 ?1 ??1/2 ? dk I)+ ??1/2 , M2k := ??1/2 (??1/2 ?2 ??1/2 ? dk I)+ ??1/2 , and ? := (1 ? ? )(?1 + ?2 ) + ? ?. The implication of the result is the following. If ? = 1 ? 2d1 (resp. ? = k 1 ? 2c1k ) is satisfied, the O(? ) term ?1k (resp. ?2k ) of the k-th eigenvalue vanishes and also the k-th eigenvector does coincide with the one for the original problem up to ? order, because the first term of ? 1k (resp. ? 2k ) becomes zero (we note that dk and ck also depend on ? ). 4 Evaluation Test Case with Constructed Test Data. To validate the proposed iCSP, we first applied it to specifically constructed test data. iCSP was trained (? = 0.5) on motor imagery data with the invariance characterized by data from a measurement during ?eyes open? (approx. 40 s) and ?eyes closed? (approx. 20 s). The motor imagery test data was used in its original form and variants that were modified in a controlled manner: From another data set during ?eyes closed? we extracted activity related to increased occipital alpha activity (backprojection of 5 ICA components) and added this with 3 different factors (? = 0.5, 1, 2) to the test data. The upper plots of Fig. 2 display the classifier output on the constructed test data. While the performance of the original CSP is more and more deteriorated with increased alpha mixed in, the proposed iCSP method maintains a stable performance independent of the amount of increased alpha activity. The spatial filters that were extracted by CSP analysis vs. the proposed iCSP often look quite similar. However, tiny but apparently important differences exist. In the lower panel of Fig. 2 the filter (v j ) pattern (a j ) pairs from original CSP (left) and iCSP (right) are shown. The filters from two approaches resemble each other strongly. However, the corresponding patterns reveal an important difference. While the pattern of the original CSP has positive weights at the right occipital side which might be susceptible to ? modulations, the corresponding iCSP has not. A more detailed inspection shows that both filters have a focus over the right (sensori-) motor cortex, but only the invariant filter has a spot of opposite sign right posterior to it. This spot will filter out contributions coming from occipital/parietal sites. Model selection for iCSP. For each subject, a cross-validation was performed for different values of ? on the training data (session imag_move) and the ? resulting in minimum error was chosen. For the same values of ? the iCSP filters + LDA classifier trained on imag_move were applied to calcu6 35 35 Subject cv test train 30 20 15 cv zv zk zq 20 15 10 5 5 0 0.2 35 0.4 xi 0.6 0 0.8 0 0.2 35 Subject zk test train 30 0.4 xi 0.6 Subject zq 30 0.8 test train 15 10 25 error [%] 25 error [%] 20 error [%] 10 20 15 10 20 5 15 10 5 0 25 test train 25 error [%] error [%] 25 0 Subject zv 30 5 0 0.2 0.4 xi 0.6 0.8 0 0 0.2 0.4 xi 0.6 0 0.8 CSP iCSP Figure 3: Modelselection and evaluation. Left subplots: Selection of hyperparameter ? of the iCSP method. For each subject, a cross-validation was performed for different values of ? on the training data (session imag_move), see thin black line, and the ? resulting in minimum error was chosen (circle). For the same values of ? the iCSP filters + LDA classifier trained on imag_move were applied to calculate the test error on data from imag_lett (thick colorful line). Right plot: Test error in all four recordings for classical CSP and the proposed iCSP (with model parameter ? chosen by cross-validation on the training set as described in Section 4). late the test error on data from imag_lett. Fig. 3 (left plots) shows the result of this procedure. The shape of the cross-validation error on the training set and the test error is very similar. Accordingly, the selection of values for parameter ? is successful. For subject zq ? = 0 was chosen, i.e. classical CSP. The case for subject zk shows that the selection of ? may be a delicate issue. For larges values of ? cross-validation error and test error differ dramatically. A choice of ? > 0.5 would result in bad performance of iCSP, while this effect could have not been predicted so severely from the cross-validation of the training set. Evaluation of Performance with Real BCI Data. For evaluation we used the imag_move session (see Section 2) as training set and the imag_lett session as test set. Fig 3 (right plot) compares the classification error obtained by classical CSP and by the proposed method iCSP with model parameter ? chosen by cross-validation on the training set as described above. Again an excellent improvement is visible. 5 Concluding discussion EEG data from Brain-Computer Interface experiments are highly challenging to evaluate due to noise, nonstationarity and diverse artifacts. Thus, BCI provides an excellent testbed for testing the quality and applicability of robust machine learning methods (cf. the BCI Competitions [27, 28]). Obviously BCI users are subject to variations in attention and motivation. These types of nonstationarities can considerably deteriorate the BCI classifier performance. In present paper we proposed a novel method to alleviate this problem. A limitation of our method is that variations need to be characterized in advance (by estimating an appropriate covariance matrix). At the same time this is also a strength of our method as neurophysiological prior knowledge about possible sources of non-stationarity is available and can thus be taken into account in a controlled manner. Also the selection of hyperparameter ? needs more investigation, cf. the case of subject zk in Fig. 3. One strategy to pursue is to update the covariance matrix ? online with incoming test data. (Note that no label information is needed.) Online learning (learning algorithms for adaptation within a BCI session) could also be used to further stabilize the system against unforeseen changes. It remains to future research to explore this interesting direction. Appendix: Proof of Lemma 1. By substituting the expansions of e ?k and w e k to Eq.(6) and taking the O(? ) term, we get A? k + ?wk = ?k B? k + ?k Pwk + ?k Bwk . Eq.(7) can be obtained by multiplying w> k to Eq.(11) and applying Eq.(5). Then, from Eq.(11), (A ? ?k B)? k = ?(? ? ?k P)wk + ?k Bwk = ?(A ? ?k B)Mk (? ? ?k P)wk , 7 (11) holds, where we used the constraints w>j Bwk = ? jk and (A ? ?k B)Mk = ? Bw j w>j = I ? Bwk w>k . (12) j6=k Eq.(12) can (B?1/2 AB?1/2 ? ?k I)+ be proven by B?1/2 AB?1/2 ? ?k I = ? j6=k ? j B1/2 w j w>j B1/2 and Since span{wk } is the kernel of the operator A ? ?k B, = ? j6=k 1/? j ? k can be explained as ? k = ?Mk (? ? ?k P)wk + cwk . By a multiplication with w> k B, the constant c turns > BM = 0> and w> B? = ?w> Pw /2 derived from the out to be c = ?w> Pw /2, where we used the fact w k k k k k k k k normalization w e> wk = 1. k (B + ? P)e B1/2 w > 1/2 . jw j B References [1] J. R. Wolpaw, N. Birbaumer, D. J. McFarland, G. Pfurtscheller, and T. M. Vaughan, ?Brain-computer interfaces for communication and control?, Clin. Neurophysiol., 113: 767?791, 2002. [2] N. Birbaumer, N. Ghanayim, T. Hinterberger, I. Iversen, B. Kotchoubey, A. K?bler, J. Perelmouter, E. Taub, and H. Flor, ?A spelling device for the paralysed?, Nature, 398: 297?298, 1999. [3] G. Pfurtscheller, C. Neuper, C. Guger, W. Harkam, R. Ramoser, A. Schl?gl, B. Obermaier, and M. Pregenzer, ?Current Trends in Graz Brain-computer Interface (BCI)?, IEEE Trans. Rehab. Eng., 8(2): 216?219, 2000. [4] J. Mill?n, Handbook of Brain Theory and Neural Networks, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2002. [5] E. A. Curran and M. J. 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Learning with Tree-Averaged Densities and Distributions Sergey Kirshner AICML and Dept of Computing Science University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2E8 [email protected] Abstract We utilize the ensemble of trees framework, a tractable mixture over superexponential number of tree-structured distributions [1], to develop a new model for multivariate density estimation. The model is based on a construction of treestructured copulas ? multivariate distributions with uniform on [0, 1] marginals. By averaging over all possible tree structures, the new model can approximate distributions with complex variable dependencies. We propose an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters for these tree-averaged models for both the real-valued and the categorical case. Based on the tree-averaged framework, we propose a new model for joint precipitation amounts data on networks of rain stations. 1 Introduction Multivariate real-valued data appears in many real-world data sets, and a lot of research is being focused on the development of multivariate real-valued distributions. One of the challenges in constructing such distributions is that univariate continuous distributions commonly do not have a clear multivariate generalization. The most studied exception is the multivariate Gaussian distribution owing to properties such as closed form density expression with a convenient generalization to higher dimensions and closure over the set of linear projections. However, not all problems can be addressed fairly with Gaussians (e.g., mixtures, multimodal distributions, heavy-tailed distributions), and new approaches are needed for such problems. While modeling multivariate distributions is in general difficult due to complicated functional forms and the curse of dimensionality, learning models for individual variables (univariate marginals) is often straightforward. Once the univariate marginals are known (or assumed known), the rest can be modeled using copulas, multivariate distributions with all univariate marginals equal to uniform distributions on [0, 1] (e.g., [2, 3]). A large portion of copula research concentrated on bivariate copulas as extensions to higher dimensions are often difficult. Thus if the desired distribution decomposes into its univariate marginals and only bivariate distributions, the machinery of copulas can be effectively utilized. Distributions with undirected tree-structured graphical models (e.g., [4]) have exactly these properties, as probability density functions over the variables with tree-structured conditional independence graphs can be written as a product involving univariate marginals and bivariate marginals corresponding to the edges of the tree. While tree-structured dependence is perhaps too restrictive, a richer variable dependence can be obtained by averaging over a small number of different tree structures [5] or all possible tree structures; the latter can be done analytically for categorical-valued distributions with an ensemble-of-trees model [1]. In this paper, we extend this tree-averaged model to continuous variables with the help of copulas and derive a learning algorithm to estimate the parameters within the maximum likelihood framework with EM [6]. Within this framework, the 1 parameter estimation for tree-structured and tree-averaged models requires optimization over only univariate and bivariate densities potentially avoiding the curse of dimensionality, a property not shared by alternative models that relax the dependence restriction of trees (e.g., vines [7]). The main contributions of the paper are the new tree-averaged model for multivariate copulas, a parameter estimation algorithm for tree-averaged framework (for both categorical and real-valued complete data), and a new model for multi-site daily precipitation amounts, an important application in hydrology. In the process, we introduce previously unexplored tree-structured copula density and an algorithm for estimation of its structure and parameters. The paper is organized as follows. First, we describe copulas, their densities, and some of their useful properties (Section 2). We then construct multivariate copulas with tree-structured dependence from bivariate copulas (Section 3.1) and show how to estimate the parameters of the bivariate copulas and perform the edge selection. To allow more complex dependencies between the variables, we describe a tree-averaged copula, a novel copula object constructed by averaging over all possible spanning trees for tree-structured copulas, and derive a learning algorithm for the estimation of the parameters from data for the treeaveraged copulas (Section 4). We apply our new method to a benchmark data set (Section 5.1); we also develop a new model for multi-site precipitation amounts, a problem involving both binary (rain/no rain) and continuous (how much rain) variables (Section 5.2). 2 Copulas Let X = (X1 , . . . , Xd ) be a vector random variable with corresponding probability distribution F (cdf) defined on Rd . We denote by V the set of d components (variables) of X and refer to individual variables as Xv for v ? V. For simplicity, we will refer to assignments to random variables by lower case letters, e.g., Xv = xv will be denoted by xv . Let Fv (xv ) = F (Xv = xv , Xu = ? : u ? V \ {v}) denote a univariate marginal of F over the variable Xv . Let pv (xv ) denote the probability density function (pdf) of Xv . Let av = Fv (xv ), and let a = (a1 , . . . , ad ), so a is a vector of quantiles of components of x with respect to corresponding univariate marginals. Next, we define copula, a multivariate distribution over vectors of quantiles. d Definition 1. The copula associated with F is a distribution function C : [0, 1] ? [0, 1] that satisfies F (x) = C (F1 (x1 ) , . . . , Fd (xd )) , x ? Rd . (1) If F is a continuous distribution on Rd with univariate marginals F1 , . . . , Fd , then C (a) =  ?1 ?1 F F1 (a1 ) , . . . , Fd (ad ) is the unique choice for (1). Assuming that F has d-th order partial derivatives, the probability density function (pdf) can be obtained from the distribution function via differentiation and expressed in terms of a derivative of a copula: p (x) = Y ? d F (x) ? d C (a) ? d C (a) Y ?av = = = c (a) pv (xv ) ?x1 . . . ?xd ?x1 . . . ?xd ?a1 . . . ?ad ?xv v?V where c (a) = (2) v?V ? d C(a) ?a1 ...?ad is referred to as a copula density function.  Suppose we are given a complete data set D = x1 , . . . , xN of d-component real-valued vectors xn = xn1 , . . . , xd1 under i.i.d. assumption. A maximum likelihood (ML) estimate for the parameters of c (or p) from data can be obtained my maximizing the log-likelihood of D ln p (D) = N XX v?V n=1 ln pv (xnv ) + N X ln c (F1 (xn1 ) , . . . , Fd (xnd )) . (3) n=1 The first term of the log-likelihood corresponds to the total log-likelihood of all univariate marginals of p, and the second term to the log-likelihood of its d-variate copula. These terms are not independent as the second term in the sum is defined in terms of the probability expressions in the first summand; except for a few special cases, a direct optimization of (3) is prohibitively complicated. However a useful (and asymptotically consistent) heuristic is first to maximize the log-likelihood for the marginals (first term only), and then to estimate the parameters for the copula given the solution 2 for the marginals. The univariate marginals can be accurately estimated by either fitting the parameters for some appropriately chosen univariate distributions or by applying non-parametric methods1 as the marginals are estimated independent of each other and do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Let p?v (xv ) be the estimated pdf for component v, and F?v be the corresponding cdf.   1 Let A = a , . . . , aN where an = (an1 , . . . , and ) = F? (xn1 ) , . . . , F? (xnd ) be a set of estimated quantiles. Under the above heuristic, ML estimate for copula density c is computed by maximizing PN ln c (A) = n=1 ln c (an ). 3 Exploiting Tree-Structured Dependence Joint probability distributions are often modeled with probabilistic graphical models where the structure of the graph captures the conditional independence relations of the variables. The joint distribution is then represented as a product of functions over subsets of variables. We would like to keep the number of variables for each of the functions small as the number of parameters and the number of points needed for parameter estimation often grows exponentially with the number of variables. Thus, we focus on copulas with tree dependence. Trees play an important role in probabilistic graphical models as they allow for efficient exact inference [10] as well as structure and parameter learning [4]. They can also be placed in a fully Bayesian framework with decomposable priors allowing to compute expected values (over all possible spanning trees) of product of functions defined on the edges of the trees [1]. As we will see later in this section, under the tree-structured dependence, a copula density can be computed as products of bivariate copula densities over the edges of the graph. This property allows us to estimate the parameters for the edge copulas independently. 3.1 Tree-Structured Copulas We consider tree-structured Markov networks, i.e., undirected graphs that do not have loops. For a distribution F admitting tree-structured Markov networks (referred from now on as tree-structured distributions), assuming that p (x) > 0 and p (x) < ? for x ? R ? Rd , the density (for x ? R) can be rewritten as " # Y Y puv (xu , xv ) p (x) = pv (xv ) . (4) pu (xu ) pv (xv ) v?V {u,v}?E This formulation easily follows from the Hammersley-Clifford theorem [11]. Note that for {u, v} ? E, a copula density cuv (au , av ) for F (xu , xv ) can be computed using Equation 2: puv (xu , xv ) . (5) cuv (au , av ) = pu (xu ) pv (xv ) Using Equations 2, 4, and 5, cp (a) for F (x) can be computed as Y Y p (x) puv (xu , xv ) cp (a) = Q = = cp (au , av ) . (6) pu (xu ) pv (xv ) v?V pv (xv ) {u,v}?E {u,v}?E Equation 6 states that a copula density for a tree-structured distribution decomposes as a product of bivariate copulas over its edges. The converse is true as well; a tree-structured copula can be constructed by specifying copulas for the edges of the tree. Theorem 1. Given a tree or a forest G = (V, E) and copula densities cuv (au , av ) for {u, v} ? E, Y cE (a) = cuv (au , av ) {u,v}?E is a valid copula density. For a tree-structured density, the copula log-likelihood can be rewritten as ln c (A) = N X X ln cuv (anu , anv ) , {u,v}?E n=1 1 These approaches for copula estimation are referred to as inference for the margins (IFM) [8] and canonical maximum likelihood (CML) [9] for parametric and non-parametric forms for the marginals, respectively. 3 PN and the parameters can be fitted by maximizing n=1 ln cuv (anu , anv ) independently for different pairs {u, v} ? E. The tree structure can be learned from the data as well, as in the Chow-Liu algorithm [4]. Full algorithm can be found in an extended version of the paper [12]. 4 Tree-Averaged Copulas While the framework from Section 3.1 is computationally efficient and convenient for implementation, the imposed tree-structured dependence is too restrictive for real-world problems. Vines [7], for example, deal with this problem by allowing recursive refinements for the bivariate probabilities over variables not connected by the tree edges. However, vines require estimation of additional characteristics of the distribution (e.g., conditional rank correlations) requiring estimation over large sets of variables, which is not advisable when the amount of available data is not large. Our proposed method would only require optimization of parameters of bivariate copulas from the corresponding two components of weighted data vectors. Using the Bayesian framework for spanning trees from [1], it is possible to construct an object constituting a convex combination over all possible spanning trees allowing a much richer set of conditional independencies than a single tree. Meil?a and Jaakkola [1] proposed a decomposable prior over all possible spanning tree structures. Let ? be a symmetric matrix of non-negative weights for all pairs of distinct variables and zeros on the diagonal. Let E be a set of all possible spanning trees over V. The probability distribution over all spanning tree structures over V is defined as X Y 1 Y P (E ? E|?) = ?uv where Z = ?uv . (7) Z E?E {u,v}?E {u,v}?E Even though the sum is over |E| = dd?2 trees, Z can be efficiently computed in closed form using a weighted generalization of Kirchoff?s Matrix Tree Theorem (e.g., [1]). Theorem 2. Let P (E) be a distribution over spanning tree structures defined by (7). Then the normalization constant Z is equal to the determinant |L? (?)|, with matrix L? (?) representing the first (d ? 1) rows and columns of the matrix L (?) given by:  ?? u, v ? V, u 6= v; P uv Luv (?) = Lvu (?) = ? u, v ? V, u = v. vw w?V ? is a generalization of an adjacency matrix, and L (?) is a generalization of the Laplacian matrix. The decomposability property of the tree prior (Equation 7) allows us to compute the average of the tree-structured distributions over all dd?2 tree structures. In [1], such averaging was applied to tree-structured distributions over categorical variables. Similarly, we define a tree-averaged copula density as a convex combination of copula densities of the form (6): ? ?? ? X Y |L? (?c (a))| 1 X? Y ?uv ? ? cuv (au , av )? = r (a) = P (E|?) c (a) = Z |L? (?)| E?E E?E {u,v}?E {u,v}?E where entry (uv) of matrix ?c (a) denotes ?uv cuv (au , av ). A finite convex combination of copulas is a copula, so r (a) is a copula density. 4.1 Parameter Estimation Given a set of estimated quantile values A, a suitable parameter values ? (edge weight matrix) and ? (parameters for bivariate edge copulas) can be found by maximizing the log-likelihood of A: l (?, ?) = ln r (A|?, ?) = N X ln r (an |?, ?) = n=1 N X ln |L? (?c (an |?))| ? N ln |L? (?)| . (8) n=1 However, the parameter optimization of l (?, ?) cannot be done analytically. Instead, noticing that we are dealing with a mixture model (granted, one where the number of mixture components is super-exponential), we propose performing the parameter optimization with the EM algorithm [6].2 2 A possibility of EM algorithm for ensemble-of-trees with categorical data was mentioned [1], but the idea was abandoned due to the concern about the M-step. 4 Algorithm T REE AVERAGED C OPULA D ENSITY(D, c) Inputs: A complete data set D of d-component real-valued vectors; a set of of bivariate parametric copula densities c = {cuv : u, v ? V} 1. Estimate univariate margins F?v (Xv ) for all components v ? V treating all components independently.   2. Replace D with A consisting of vectors an = F?1 (xn ) , . . . , F?d (xn ) for each vector 1 d xn in D 3. Initialize ? and ? 4. Run until convergence (as determined by change in log-likelihood, Equation 8) ? E-step: For all vectors an and pairs {u, v}, compute P ({u, v} ? E|an , ?, ?) ? M-step: ? Update ? with gradient ascent ? Update ? uv for all pairs by setting partial derivative with respect to parameters of ? uv (Equation 9) to zero and solving corresponding equations   ? Q |L (?c(a))| ? ? Output: Denoting au = F (xu ) and av = F (xv ), p? (x) = p?v (xv ) |L? (? )| v?V Figure 1: Algorithm for estimation of a pdf with tree-averaged copulas. While there are dd?2 possible mixture components (spanning trees), in the E-step, we only need to compute the posterior probabilities for d (d ? 1) /2 edges. Each step of EM consists of find ing parameters ? 0 , ? 0 maximizing the expected joint log-likelihood M ? 0 , ? 0 ; ?, ? given current parameter values ?, ? where M ? 0 , ? 0 ; ?, ?  = N X X    P (En |an , ?, ?) ln P E|? 0 c an |E, ? 0 n=1 En ?E = N X X  0 0 sn ({u, v}) (ln ?uv + ln cuv (anu , anv |?uv )) ? N ln L? ? 0 ; {u,v} n=1 Q sn ({u, v}) = X n P (En |a , ?, ?) = E?E X E?E {u,v}?E {u,v}?E (?uv cuv (anu , anv |? uv )) |L? (?c (an ))| . {u,v}?E n The probability distribution P (En |a , ?, ?) is of the same form as the tree prior, so to compute sn ({u, v}) one needs to compute the sum of probabilities of all trees containing edge {u, v}. ?1 Theorem 3. Let P (E|?) be a tree prior defined in Equation 7. Let Q (?) = (L? (?)) where L? is obtained by removing row and column w from L. Then ( ?uv (Quu (?) + Qvv (?) ? 2Quv (?)) : u 6= v, u 6= w, v 6= w, X ?uw Quu (?) : v = w, P (E|?) = ?wv Qvv (?) : u = w. E?E: {u,v}?E As a consequence of Theorem 3, for each an , all d (d ? 1) /2 edge probabilities sn ({u, v}) can be computed simultaneously with time complexity of a single (d ? 1) ? (d ? 1) matrix inversion,  O d3 . Assuming a candidate bivariate copula cuv has one free parameter ?uv , ?uv can be optimized by setting  N 0 X ?M ? 0 , ? 0 ; ?, ? ? ln cuv (anu , anv ; ?uv ) = sn ({u, v}) , (9) 0 0 ??uv ?? uv n=1 to 0. (See [12] for more details.) The parameters of the tree prior can be updated by maximizing ! N X 1 X 0 sn ({u, v}) ln ?uv ? ln |L? (?)| , N n=1 {u,v} 5 an expression concave in ln ?uv ? {u, v}. ? 0 can be updated using a gradient ascent algorithm on ln ?uv ? {u, v}, with time complexity O d3 per iteration. The outline of the EM algorithm is shown in Figure 1. Assuming the complexity  of each bivariate copula update is O (N ), the time complexity of each EM iteration is O N d3 . The EM algorithm can be easily transferred to tree averaging for categorical data. The E-step does not change, and in the M-step, the parameters for the univariate marginals are updated ignoring bivariate terms. Then, the parameters for the bivariate distributions for each edge are updated constrained on the new values of the parameters for the univariate distributions. While the algorithm does not guarantee a maximization of the expected log-likelihood, it nonetheless worked well in our experiments. 5 5.1 Experiments MAGIC Gamma Telescope Data Set First, we tested our tree-averaged density estimator on a MAGIC Gamma Telescope Data Set from the UCI Machine Learning Repository [13]. We considered only the examples from class gamma (signal); this set consists of 12332 vectors of d = 10 real-valued components. The univariate marginals are not Gaussian (some are bounded; some have multiple modes). Fig. 2 shows an average log-likelihood of models trained on training sets with N = 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000 and evaluated on 2000-example test sets (averaged over 10 training and test sets). The marginals were estimated using Gaussian kernel density estimators (KDE) with Rule-of-Thumb bandwidth selection. All of the models except for full Gaussian have the same marginals, differ only in the multivariate dependence (copula). As expected from the curse of dimensionality, product KDE improves logarithmically with the amount of data. Not only the marginals are not Gaussian (evidenced by a Gaussian copula with KDE marginals outperforming a Gaussian distribution), the multivariate dependence is also not Gaussian, evidenced by a tree-structured Frank copula outperforming a tree-structured and a full Gaussian copula. However, model averaging even with the wrong dependence model (tree-averaged Gaussian copula) yields superior performance. 5.2 Multi-Site Precipitation Modeling We applied the tree-averaged framework to the problem of modeling daily rainfall amounts for a regional spatial network of stations. The task is to build a generative model capturing the spatial and temporal properties of the data. This model can be used in at least two ways: first, to sample sequences from it and to use them as inputs for other models, e.g., crop models; and second, as a descriptive model of the data. Hidden Markov models (possible with non-homogeneous transitions) are being frequently used for this task (e.g., [14]) with the transition distribution responsible for modeling of temporal dependence, and the emission distributions capturing most of the spatial dependence. Additionally, HMMs can be viewed as assigning rainfall daily patterns to ?weather states? (or corresponding emission components), and both these states (as described by either their parameters or the statistics of the patterns associated with it) and their temporal evolution often offer useful synoptic insight. We will use HMMs as the wrapper model with tree-averaged (and tree-structured) distributions to model the emission components. The distribution of daily rainfall amounts for any given station can be viewed as a non-overlapping mixture with one component corresponding to zero precipitation, and the other component to positive precipitation. For a station v, let rv be the precipitation amount, ?v be a probability of positive precipitation, and let fv (rv |?v ) be a probability density function for amounts given positive precipitation:  1 ? ?v : rv = 0, p (rv |?v , ?v ) = ?v fv (rv |?v ) : rv > 0. For a pair of stations {u, v}, let ?uv denote the probability of simultaneous positive amounts and cuv (Fu (ru |?u ) , Fv (rv |?v ) |? uv ) denote the copula density for simultaneous positive amounts; 6 then ? 1 ? ?u ? ?v + ?uv : ru = 0, ? ? (?v ? ?uv ) fv (rv |?v ) : ru = 0, p (ru , rv |?u , ?v , ?uv , ?u , ?v ) = : ru > 0, ? (?u ? ?uv ) fu (ru |?u ) ? ?uv fu (ru ) fv (rv ) c (Fu (ru ) , Fv (rv )) : ru > 0, rv rv rv rv = 0, > 0, = 0, > 0. We can now define a tree-structured and tree-averaged probability distributions, pt (r) and pta (r), respectively, over the amounts: " # Y Y p (ru , rv |?u , ?v , ?uv , ?u , ?v ) ?uv (r) = , pt (r|?, ?, ?, E) = p (rv |?v ) ?uv (r) , p (ru |?u , ?u ) p (rv |?v , ?v ) v?V {u,v}?E " # Y X |L? (?? (r))| P (E|?) pt (r|?, ?, ?, E) = p (rv |?v ) pta (r|?, ?, ?, ?) = . |L? (?)| E?E v?V ??v rv We employ univariate exponential distributions fv (rv ) = ?v e cuv (au , av ) = ? and bivariate Gaussian copulas 2 ??1 (a )2 ?2? ?1 (a )??1 (a ) ? 2 ??1 (au )2 +?uv v uv ? u v ? uv 2 ) 2(1??uv 1 e 2 1??uv . We applied the models to a data set collected from 30 stations from a region in Southeastern Australia (Fig. 3) 1986-2005, April-October, (20 sequences 214 30-dimensional vectors each). We used a 5-state HMM with three different types of emission distributions: tree-averaged (pta ), treestructured (pt ), and conditionally independent (first term of pt and pta ). We will refer to these models HMM-TA, HMM-Tree, and HMM-CI, respectively. For HMM-TA, we reduced the number of free parameters by only allowing edges for stations adjacent to each other as determined by the the Delaunay triangulation (Fig. 3). We also did not learn the edge weights (?) setting them to 1 for selected edges and to 0 for the rest. To make sure that the models do not overfit, we computed their out-of-sample log-likelihood with cross-validation, leaving out one year at a time (not shown). (5 states were chosen because the leave-one-year out log-likelihood starts to flatten out for HMM-TA at 5 states.) The resulting log-likelihoods divided by the number of days and stations are ?0.9392, ?0.9522, and ?1.0222 for HMM-TA, HMM-Tree, and HMM-CI, respectively. To see how well the models capture the properties of the data, we trained each model on the whole data set (with 50 restarts of EM), and then simulated 500 sequences of length 214. We are particularly interested in how well they measure pairwise dependence; we concentrate on two measures: log-odds ratio for occurrence and Kendall?s ? measure of concordance for pairs when both stations had positive amounts. Both are shown in Fig. 4. Both plots suggest that HMM-CI underestimates the pairwise dependence for strongly dependent pairs (as indicated by its trend to predict lower absolute values for log-odds and concordance); HMM-Tree estimating the dependence correctly mostly for strongly dependent pairs (as indicated by good prediction for high values), but underestimating it for moderate dependence; and HMM-TA performing the best for most pairs except for the ones with very strong dependence. Acknowledgements This work has been supported by the Alberta Ingenuity Fund through the AICML. We thank Stephen Charles (CSIRO, Australia) for providing us with precipitation data. References [1] M. Meil?a and T. Jaakkola. Tractable Bayesian learning of tree belief networks. Statistics and Computing, 16(1):77?92, 2006. [2] H. Joe. Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts, volume 73 of Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1997. [3] R. B. Nelsen. An Introduction to Copulas. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, 2nd edition, 2006. [4] C. K. Chow and C. N. Liu. Approximating discrete probability distributions with dependence trees. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, IT-14(3):462?467, May 1968. [5] M. Meil?a and M. I. Jordan. Learning with mixtures of trees. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 1(1):1?48, October 2000. 7 ?33 ?2.6 Coastline Stations Selected pairs ?34 ?2.8 ?35 Independent KDE Product KDE Gaussian Gaussian Copula Gaussian TCopula Frank TCopula Gaussian TACopula ?2.9 ?3 Latitude Log?likelihood per feature ?2.7 ?36 ?3.1 ?37 ?3.2 50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 ?38 10000 143 144 145 Training set size Figure 2: Averaged test set per-feature loglikelihood for MAGIC data: independent KDE (black solid ), product KDE (blue dashed ?), Gaussian (brown solid ?), Gaussian copula (orange solid +), Gaussian tree-copula (magenta dashed x), Frank tree-copula (blue dashed ), Gaussian tree-averaged copula (red solid x). 146 Longitude 147 148 149 150 Figure 3: Station map with station locations (red dots), coastline, and the pairs of stations selected according to Delaunay triangulation (dotted lines) 5 HMM?TA HMM?Tree HMM?CI y=x 0.7 HMM?TA HMM?Tree HMM?CI y=x 0.6 Kendall?s ? from the simulated data Log?odds from the simulated data 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.5 0 1 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Log?odds from the historical data 4.5 5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Kendall?s ? from the historical data 0.7 Figure 4: Scatter-plots of log-odds ratios for occurrence (left) and Kendall?s ? measure of concordance (right) for all pairs of stations for the historical data vs HMM-TA (red o), HMM-Tree (blue x), and HMM-CI (green ?). [6] A. P. Dempster, N. M. Laird, and D. B. Rubin. Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Methodological, 39(1):1?38, 1977. [7] T. Bedford and R. M. Cooke. Vines ? a new graphical model for dependent random variables. The Annals of Statistics, 30(4):1031?1068, 2002. [8] H. Joe and J.J. Xu. The estimation method of inference functions for margins for multivariate models. Technical report, Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, 1996. [9] C. Genest, K. Ghoudi, and L.-P. Rivest. A semiparametric estimation procedure of dependence parameters in multivariate families of distributions. Biometrika, 82:543?552, 1995. [10] J. Pearl. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc., San Francisco, California, 1988. [11] J. Besag. Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Methodological, 36(2):192?236, 1974. [12] S. Kirshner. Learning with tree-averaged densities and distributions. Technical Report TR 08-01, Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, 2008. [13] A. Asuncion and D.J. Newman. UCI machine learning repository, 2007. [14] E. Bellone. Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Models for Downscaling Synoptic Atmospheric Patterns to Precipitation Amounts. PhD thesis, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2000. 8
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Local Algorithms for Approximate Inference in Minor-Excluded Graphs Kyomin Jung Dept. of Mathematics, MIT [email protected] Devavrat Shah Dept. of EECS, MIT [email protected] Abstract We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing MAP and logpartition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say G. Our algorithm is based on decomposing G into appropriately chosen small components; computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a good global solution. We prove that the algorithm can provide approximate solution within arbitrary accuracy when G excludes some finite sized graph as its minor and G has bounded degree: all Planar graphs with bounded degree are examples of such graphs. The running time of the algorithm is ?(n) (n is the number of nodes in G), with constant dependent on accuracy, degree of graph and size of the graph that is excluded as a minor (constant for Planar graphs). Our algorithm for minor-excluded graphs uses the decomposition scheme of Klein, Plotkin and Rao (1993). In general, our algorithm works with any decomposition scheme and provides quantifiable approximation guarantee that depends on the decomposition scheme. 1 Introduction Markov Random Field (MRF) based exponential family of distribution allows for representing distributions in an intuitive parametric form. Therefore, it has been successful for modeling in many applications Specifically, consider an exponential family on n random variables X = (X1 , . . . , Xn ) represented by a pair-wise (undirected) MRF with graph structure G = (V, E), where vertices V = {1, . . . , n} and edge set E ? V ? V . Each Xi takes value in a finite set ? (e.g. ? = {0, 1}). The joint distribution of X = (Xi ): for x = (xi ) ? ?n , ? ? X X ?ij (xi , xj )? . (1) Pr[X = x] ? exp ? ?i (xi ) + i?V (i,j)?E 4 Here, functions ?i : ? ? R+ = {x ? R : x ? 0}, and ?ij : ?2 ? R+ are assumed to be arbitrary non-negative (real-valued) functions.1 The two most important computational questions of interest are: (i) finding maximum a-posteriori (MAP) assignment x? , where x? = arg maxx??n Pr[X = x]; and (ii) marginal distributions of variables, i.e. Pr[Xi = x]; for x ? ?, 1 ? i ? n. MAP is equivalent to a minimal energy assignment (or ground state) n where energy, E(x), P P of state x ? ? is defined as E(x) = ?H(x) + Constant, where H(x) = ? (x )+ ? (x , x ). i j Similarly, computing marginal is equivalent to computing logi?V i i (i,j)?E ij P P  P partition function, defined as log Z = log . x??n exp i?V ?i (xi ) + (i,j)?E ?ij (xi , xj ) ? In this paper, we will find ?-approximation solutions of MAP and log-partition function: that is, x and log Z? such that: (1 ? ?)H(x? ) ? H(? x) ? H(x? ), (1 ? ?) log Z ? log Z? ? (1 + ?) log Z. 1 Here, we assume the positivity of ?i ?s and ?ij ?s for simplicity of analysis. 1 Previous Work. The question of finding MAP (or ground state) comes up in many important application areas such as coding theory, discrete optimization, image denoising.Similarly, log-partition function is used in counting combinatorial objects loss-probability computation in computer networks, etc. Both problems are NP-hard for exact and even (constant) approximate computation for arbitrary graph G. However, applications require solving this problem using very simple algorithms. A plausible approach is as follows. First, identify wide class of graphs that have simple algorithms for computing MAP and log-partition function. Then, try to build system (e.g. codes) so that such good graph structure emerges and use the simple algorithm or else use the algorithm as a heuristic. Such an approach has resulted in many interesting recent results starting the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm designed for Tree graph [1].Since there a vast literature on this topic, we will recall only few results. Two important algorithms are the generalized belief propagation (BP) [2] and the tree-reweighted algorithm (TRW) [3,4].Key properties of interest for these iterative procedures are the correctness of fixed points and convergence. Many results characterizing properties of the fixed points are known starting from [2]. Various sufficient conditions for their convergence are known starting [5]. However, simultaneous convergence and correctness of such algorithms are established for only specific problems, e.g. [6]. Finally, we discuss two relevant results. The first result is about properties of TRW. The TRW algorithm provides provable upper bound on log-partition function for arbitrary graph [3]However, to the best of authors? knowledge the error is not quantified. The TRW for MAP estimation has a strong connection to specific Linear Programming (LP) relaxation of the problem [4]. This was made precise in a sequence of work by Kolmogorov [7], Kolmogorov and Wainwright [8] for binary MRF. It is worth noting that LP relaxation can be poor even for simple problems. The second is an approximation algorithm proposed by Globerson and Jaakkola [9] to compute log-partition function using Planar graph decomposition (PDC). PDC uses techniques of [3] in conjunction with known result about exact computation of partition function for binary MRF when G is Planar and the exponential family has specific form. Their algorithm provides provable upper bound for arbitrary graph. However, they do not quantify the error incurred. Further, their algorithm is limited to binary MRF. Contribution. We propose a novel local algorithm for approximate computation of MAP and logpartition function. For any ? > 0, our algorithm can produce an ?-approximate solution for MAP and log-partition function for arbitrary MRF G as long as G excludes a finite graph as a minor (precise definition later). For example, Planar graph excludes K3,3 , K5 as a minor. The running time of the algorithm is ?(n), with constant dependent on ?, the maximum vertex degree of G and the size of the graph that is excluded as minor. Specifically, for a Planar graph with bounded degree, it takes ? C(?)n time to find ?-approximate solution with log log C(?) = O(1/?). In general, our algorithm works for any G and we can quantify bound on the error incurred by our algorithm. It is worth noting that our algorithm provides a provable lower bound on log-partition function as well unlike many of previous works. The precise results for minor-excluded graphs are stated in Theorems 1 and 2. The result concerning general graphs are stated in the form of Lemmas 2-3-4 for log-partition and Lemmas 5-6-7 for MAP. Techniques. Our algorithm is based on the following idea: First, decompose G into small-size connected components say G1 , . . . , Gk by removing few edges of G. Second, compute estimates (either MAP or log-partition) in each of Gi separately. Third, combine these estimates to produce a global estimate while taking care of the effect induced by removed edges. We show that the error in the estimate depends only on the edges removed. This error bound characterization is applicable for arbitrary graph. Klein, Plotkin and Rao [10]introduced a clever and simple decomposition method for minorexcluded graphs to study the gap between max-flow and min-cut for multicommodity flows. We use their method to obtain a good edge-set for decomposing minor-excluded G so that the error induced in our estimate is small (can be made as small as required). In general, as long as G allows for such good edge-set for decomposing G into small components, our algorithm will provide a good estimate. To compute estimates in individual components, we use dynamic programming. Since each component is small, it is not computationally burdensome. 2 However, one may obtain further simpler heuristics by replacing dynamic programming by other method such as BP or TRW for computation in the components. 2 Preliminaries Here we present useful definitions and previous results about decomposition of minor-excluded graphs from [10,11]. Definition 1 (Minor Exclusion) A graph H is called minor of G if we can transform G into H through an arbitrary sequence of the following two operations: (a) removal of an edge; (b) merge two connected vertices u, v: that is, remove edge (u, v) as well as vertices u and v; add a new vertex and make all edges incident on this new vertex that were incident on u or v. Now, if H is not a minor of G then we say that G excludes H as a minor. The explanation of the following statement may help understand the definition: any graph H with r nodes is a minor of Kr , where Kr is a complete graph of r nodes. This is true because one may obtain H by removing edges from Kr that are absent in H. More generally, if G is a subgraph of G0 and G has H as a minor, then G0 has H as its minor. Let Kr,r denote a complete bipartite graph with r nodes in each partition. Then Kr is a minor of Kr,r . An important implication of this is as follows: to prove property P for graph G that excludes H, of size r, as a minor, it is sufficient to prove that any graph that excludes Kr,r as a minor has property P. This fact was cleverly used by Klein et. al. [10] to obtain a good decomposition scheme described next. First, a definition. Definition 2 ((?, ?)-decomposition) Given graph G = (V, E), a randomly chosen subset of edges B ? E is called (?, ?) decomposition of G if the following holds: (a) For any edge e ? E, Pr(e ? B) ? ?. (b) Let S1 , . . . , SK be connected components of graph G0 = (V, E\B) obtained by removing edges of B from G. Then, for any such component Sj , 1 ? j ? K and any u, v ? Sj the shortest-path distance between (u, v) in the original graph G is at most ? with probability 1. The existence of (?, ?)-decomposition implies that it is possible to remove ? fraction of edges so that graph decomposes into connected components whose diameter is small. We describe a simple and explicit construction of such a decomposition for minor excluded class of graphs. This scheme was proposed by Klein, Plotkin, Rao [10] and Rao [11]. DeC(G, r, ?) (0) Input is graph G = (V, E) and r, ? ? N. Initially, i = 0, G0 = G, B = ?. (1) For i = 0, . . . , r ? 1, do the following. (a) Let S1i , . . . , Ski i be the connected components of Gi . (b) For each Sji , 1 ? j ? ki , pick an arbitrary node vj ? Sji . ? Create a breadth-first search tree Tji rooted at vj in Sji . ? Choose a number Lij uniformly at random from {0, . . . , ? ? 1}. ? Let Bji be the set of edges at level Lij , ? + Lij , 2? + Lij , . . . in Tji . i Bji . ? Update B = B ?kj=1 (c) set i = i + 1. (3) Output B and graph G0 = (V, E\B). As stated above, the basic idea is to use the following step recursively (upto depth r of recursion): in each connected component, say S, choose a node arbitrarily and create a breadth-first search tree, say T . Choose a number, say L, uniformly at random from {0, . . . , ? ? 1}. Remove (add to B) all edges that are at level L + k?, k ? 0 in T . Clearly, the total running time of such an algorithm is O(r(n + |E|)) for a graph G = (V, E) with |V | = n; with possible parallel implementation across different connected components. The algorithm DeC(G, r, ?) is designed to provide a good decomposition for class of graphs that exclude Kr,r as a minor. Figure 1 explains the algorithm for a line-graph of n = 9 nodes, which excludes K2,2 as a minor. The example is about a sample run of DeC(G, 2, 3) (Figure 1 shows the first iteration of the algorithm). 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 00 0 11 1 00 11 4 3 2 1 G0 1 0 0 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 00 11 0 1 00 11 1 0 0 1 1 0 00 0 11 1 00 11 7 6 9 8 5 4 3 L1 11 00 0 1 2 1 G1 1 0 6 1 0 T1 7 1 0 8 1 0 9 11 00 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 1 2 S1 3 4 5 S2 6 S3 7 S4 8 9 S5 Figure 1: The first of two iterations in execution of DeC(G, 2, 3) is shown. Lemma 1 If G excludes Kr,r as a minor, then algorithm DeC(G, r, ?) outputs B which is (r/?, O(?))-decomposition of G. It is known that Planar graph excludes K3,3 as a minor. Hence, Lemma 1 implies the following. Corollary 1 Given a planar graph G, the algorithm DeC(G, 3, ?) produces (3/?, O(?))decomposition for any ? ? 1. 3 Approximate log Z Here, we describe algorithm for approximate computation of log Z for any graph G. The algorithm uses a decomposition algorithm as a sub-routine. In what follows, we use term D ECOMP for a generic decomposition algorithm. The key point is that our algorithm provides provable upper and lower bound on log Z for any graph; the approximation guarantee and computation time depends on the property of D ECOMP. Specifically, for Kr,r minor excluded G (e.g. Planar graph with r = 3), we will use DeC(G, r, ?) in place of D ECOMP. Using Lemma 1, we show that our algorithm based on DeC provides approximation upto arbitrary multiplicative accuracy by tuning parameter ?. L OG PARTITION(G) (1) Use D ECOMP(G) to obtain B ? E such that (a) G0 = (V, E\B) is made of connected components S1 , . . . , SK . (2) For each connected component Sj , 1 ? j ? K, do the following: (a) Compute partition function Zj restricted to Sj by dynamic programming(or exhaustive computation). L U (3) Let ?ij = min(x,x0 )??2 ?ij (x, x0 ), ?ij = max(x,x0 )??2 ?ij (x, x0 ). Then K K X X X X L U log Zj + ?ij ; log Z?UB = log Zj + ?ij . log Z?LB = j=1 j=1 (i,j)?B (i,j)?B (4) Output: lower bound log Z?LB and upper bound log Z?UB . In words, L OG PARTITION(G) produces upper and lower bound on log Z of MRF G as follows: decompose graph G into (small) components S1 , . . . , SK by removing (few) edges B ? E using D ECOMP(G). Compute exact log-partition function in each of the components. To produce bounds log Z?LB , log Z?UB take the summation of thus computed component-wise log-partition function along with minimal and maximal effect of edges from B. Analysis of L OG PARTITION for General G : Here, we analyze performance of L OG PARTI TION for any G. In the next section, we will specialize our analysis for minor excluded G when L OG PARTITION uses DeC as the D ECOMP algorithm. Lemma 2 Given an MRF G described by (1), the L OG PARTITION produces log Z?LB , log Z?UB such that X  U L log Z?LB ? log Z ? log Z?UB , log Z?UB ? log Z?LB = ?ij ? ?ij . (i,j)?B 4 ?  It takes O |E|K?|S | + TDECOMP time to produce this estimate, where |S ? | = maxK j=1 |Sj | with D ECOMP producing decomposition of G into S1 , . . . , SK in time TDECOMP . hP i 1 U L Lemma 3 If G has maximum vertex degree D then, log Z ? D+1 (i,j)?E ?ij ? ?ij . Lemma 4 If G has maximum vertex degree D and the D ECOMP(G) produces B that is (?, ?)decomposition, then h i E log Z?UB ? log Z?LB ? ?(D + 1) log Z, w.r.t. the randomness in B, and L OG PARTITION takes time O(nD|?| D? ) + TDECOMP . Analysis of L OG PARTITION for Minor-excluded G : Here, we specialize analysis of L OG PAR TITION for minor exclude graph G. For G that exclude minor Kr,r , we use algorithm DeC(G, r, ?). Now, we state the main result for log-partition function computation. Theorem 1 Let G exclude Kr,r as minor and have D as maximum vertex degree. Given ? > 0, use L OG PARTITION algorithm with DeC(G, r, ?) where ? = d r(D+1) e. Then, ? h i log Z?LB ? log Z ? log Z?UB ; E log Z?UB ? log Z?LB ? ? log Z. Further, algorithm takes (nC(D, |?|, ?)), where constant C(D, |?|, ?) = D|?|D O(rD/?) . We obtain the following immediate implication of Theorem 1. Corollary 2 For any ? > 0, the L OG PARTITION algorithm with DeC algorithm for constant degree Planar graph G based MRF, produces log Z?LB , log Z?UB so that (1 ? ?) log Z ? log Z?LB ? log Z ? log Z?UB ? (1 + ?) log Z, in time O(nC(?)) where log log C(?) = O(1/?). 4 Approximate MAP Now, we describe algorithm to compute MAP approximately. It is very similar to the L OG PAR TITION algorithm: given G, decompose it into (small) components S1 , . . . , SK by removing (few) edges B ? E. Then, compute an approximate MAP assignment by computing exact MAP restricted to the components. As in L OG PARTITION, the computation time and performance of the algorithm depends on property of decomposition scheme. We describe algorithm for any graph G; which will be specialized for Kr,r minor excluded G using DeC(G, r, ?). M ODE(G) (1) Use D ECOMP(G) to obtain B ? E such that (a) G0 = (V, E\B) is made of connected components S1 , . . . , SK . (2) For each connected component Sj , 1 ? j ? K, do the following: (a) Through dynamic programming (or exhaustive computation) find exact MAP x?,j for component Sj , where x?,j = (x?,j i )i?Sj . c? , which is obtained by assigning values to nodes using x?,j , 1 ? j ? K. (3) Produce output x Analysis of M ODE for General G : Here, we analyze performance of M ODE for any G. Later, we will specialize our analysis for minor excluded G when it uses DeC as the D ECOMP algorithm. c? such that Lemma 5P Given an MRF G described by (1), the M ODE algorithm produces outputs x  U L c? ) ? H(x? ). It takes O |E|K?|S ? | + TDECOMP time to H(x? ) ? (i,j)?B ?ij ? ?ij ? H(x produce this estimate, where |S ? | = maxK j=1 |Sj | with D ECOMP producing decomposition of G into S1 , . . . , SK in time TDECOMP . Lemma 6 If G has maximum vertex degree D, then ? ? ? ? X X 1 1 U? U L? ? ? H(x? ) ? ?ij ? ?ij ? ?ij . D+1 D+1 (i,j)?E (i,j)?E 5 Lemma 7 If G has maximum vertex degree D and the D ECOMP(G) produces B that is (?, ?)decomposition, then h i c? ) ? ?(D + 1)H(x? ), E H(x? ) ? H(x D? where expectation is w.r.t. the randomness in B. Further, M ODE takes time O(nD|?| )+TDECOMP . Analysis of M ODE for Minor-excluded G : Here, we specialize analysis of M ODE for minor exclude graph G. For G that exclude minor Kr,r , we use algorithm DeC(G, r, ?). Now, we state the main result for MAP computation. Theorem 2 Let G exclude Kr,r as minor and have D as the maximum vertex degree. Given ? > 0, use M ODE algorithm with DeC(G, r, ?) where ? = d r(D+1) e. Then, ? c? ) ? H(x? ). (1 ? ?)H(x? ) ? H(x DO(rD/?) Further, algorithm takes n ? C(D, |?|, ?) time, where constant C(D, |?|, ?) = D|?| . We obtain the following immediate implication of Theorem 2. Corollary 3 For any ? > 0, the M ODE algorithm with DeC algorithm for constant degree Planar c? so that graph G based MRF, produces estimate x c? ) ? H(x? ), (1 ? ?)H(x? ) ? H(x in time O(nC(?)) where log log C(?) = O(1/?). 5 Experiments Our algorithm provides provably good approximation for any MRF with minor excluded graph structure, with planar graph as a special case. In this section, we present experimental evaluation of our algorithm for popular synthetic model. Setup 1.2 Consider binary (i.e. ? = {0, 1}) MRF on an n ? n lattice G = (V, E): ? Pr(x) ? exp ? X i?V ?i x i + X (i,j)?E ? 2 ?ij xi xj ? , for x ? {0, 1}n . Figure 2 shows a lattice or grid graph with n = 4 (on the left side). There are two scenarios for choosing parameters (with notation U[a, b] being uniform distribution over interval [a, b]): (1) Varying interaction. ?i is chosen independently from distribution U[?0.05, 0.05] and ?ij chosen independent from U[??, ?] with ? ? {0.2, 0.4, . . . , 2}. (2) Varying field. ?ij is chosen independently from distribution U[?0.5, 0.5] and ?i chosen independently from U[??, ?] with ? ? {0.2, 0.4, . . . , 2}. The grid graph is planar. Hence, we run our algorithms L OG PARTITION and M ODE, with decomposition scheme DeC(G, 3, ?), ? ? {3, 4, 5}. We consider two measures to evaluate performance: error in log Z, defined as n12 | log Z alg ? log Z|; and error in H(x? ), defined as n12 |H(xalg ? H(x? )|. We compare our algorithm for error in log Z with the two recently very successful algorithms ? Tree re-weighted algorithm (TRW) and planar decomposition algorithm (PDC). The comparison is plotted in Figure 3 where n = 7 and results are averages over 40 trials. The Figure 3(A) plots error with respect to varying interaction while Figure 3(B) plots error with respect to varying field strength. Our algorithm, essentially outperforms TRW for these values of ? and perform very competitively with respect to PDC. The key feature of our algorithm is scalability. Specifically, running time of our algorithm with a given parameter value ? scales linearly in n, while keeping the relative error bound exactly the same. To explain this important feature, we plot the theoretically evaluated bound on error in log Z 2 Though this setup has ?i , ?ij taking negative values, they are equivalent to the setup considered in the paper as the function values are lower bounded and hence affine shift will make them non-negative without changing the distribution. 6 in Figure 4 with tags (A), (B) and (C). Note that error bound plot is the same for n = 100 (A) and n = 1000 (B). Clearly, actual error is likely to be smaller than these theoretically plotted bounds. We note that these bounds only depend on the interaction strengths and not on the values of fields strengths (C). Results similar to of L OG PARTITION are expected from M ODE. We plot the theoretically evaluated bounds on the error in MAP in Figure 4 with tags (A), (B) and (C). Again, the bound on MAP relative error for given ? parameter remains the same for all values of n as shown in (A) for n = 100 and (B) for n = 1000. There is no change in error bound with respect to the field strength (C). Setup 2. Everything is exactly the same as the above setup with the only difference that grid graph is replaced by cris-cross graph which is obtained by adding extra four neighboring edges per node (exception of boundary nodes). Figure 2 shows cris-cross graph with n = 4 (on the right side). We again run the same algorithm as above setup on this graph. For cris-cross graph, we obtained its graph decomposition from the decomposition of its grid sub-graph. graph Though the cris-cross graph is not planar, due to the structure of the cris-cross graph it can be shown (proved) that the running time of our algorithm will remain the same (in order) and error bound will become only 3 times weaker than that for the grid graph ! We compute these theoretical error bounds for log Z and MAP which is plotted in Figure 5. This figure is similar to the Figure 4 for grid graph. This clearly exhibits the generality of our algorithm even beyond minor excluded graphs. References [1] J. Pearl, ?Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference,? San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. [2] J. Yedidia, W. Freeman and Y. Weiss, ?Generalized Belief Propagation,? Mitsubishi Elect. Res. Lab., TR2000-26, 2000. [3] M. J. Wainwright, T. Jaakkola and A. S. Willsky, ?Tree-based reparameterization framework for analysis of sum-product and related algorithms,? IEEE Trans. on Info. Theory, 2003. [4] M. J. Wainwright, T. S. Jaakkola and A. S. Willsky, ?MAP estimation via agreement on (hyper)trees: Message-passing and linear-programming approaches,? IEEE Trans. on Info. Theory, 51(11), 2005. [5] S. C. Tatikonda and M. I. Jordan, ?Loopy Belief Propagation and Gibbs Measure,? Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2002. [6] M. Bayati, D. Shah and M. Sharma, ?Maximum Weight Matching via Max-Product Belief Propagation,? IEEE ISIT, 2005. [7] V. Kolmogorov, ?Convergent Tree-reweighted Message Passing for Energy Minimization,? IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2006. [8] V. Kolmogorov and M. Wainwright, ?On optimality of tree-reweighted max-product message-passing,? Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2005. [9] A. Globerson and T. Jaakkola, ?Bound on Partition function through Planar Graph Decomposition,? NIPS, 2006. [10] P. Klein, S. Plotkin and S. Rao, ?Excluded minors, network decomposition, and multicommodity flow,? ACM STOC, 1993. [11] S. Rao, ?Small distortion and volume preserving embeddings for Planar and Euclidian metrics,? ACM SCG, 1999. 11 00 00 00 11 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 11 00 11 00 00 11 00 11 00 11 00 11 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 11 00 00 11 0 00 1 11 00 11 0 1 0 1 11 00 00 11 00 0 00 1 11 11 0 1 1 0 1 0 11 00 00 11 1 00 0 11 0 11 00 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 11 00 11 00 1 0 11 00 11 1 00 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 Cris Grid Figure 2: Example of grid graph (left) and cris-cross graph (right) with n = 4. 7 (1-A) Grid, N=7 (1-B) Gird, n=7 ????? ??? TRW TRW 3 ' 4 ' 5 ????? Z Error Z Error ' ??? ???? PDC ???? PDC ???? ' 3 ' 4 ' 5 ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ? ? ??? ??? ??? ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ??? ? Interaction Strength ??? ??? ??? ??? ? Field Strength Figure 3: Comparison of TRW, PDC and our algorithm for grid graph with n = 7 with respect to error in log Z. Our algorithm outperforms TRW and is competitive with respect to PDC. (2-A) Grid, n=100 (2-C) Grid, n=1000 (2-B) Grid, n=1000 0.9 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 ' 5 0.7 2 0.7 Z Error Bound Z Error Bound 10 0.6 ' 0.5 20 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 Z Error Bound ' 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0 2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Interaction Strength 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.2 20 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 1.6 1.8 2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 MAP Error Bound MAP Error Bound MAP Error Bound 10 ' 1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 Field Strength 0.9 ' 5 ' 0.6 (3-C) Grid, n=1000 (3-B) Grid, n=1000 0.9 0.7 0.4 Interaction Strength (3-A) Grid, n=100 0.8 1 0.5 0 0.2 1.5 2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Interaction Strength 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.2 2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Field Strength Interaction Strength Figure 4: The theoretically computable error bounds for log Z and MAP under our algorithm for grid with n = 100 and n = 1000 under varying interaction and varying field model. This clearly shows scalability of our algorithm. (4-B) Cris Cross, n=1000 (4-A) Cris Cross, n=100 0.6 2.5 2.5 ' 5 (4-C) Cris Cross, n=1000 0.5 2 2 ' 20 1.5 1 0.5 Z Error Bound 10 Z Error Bound Z Error Bound ' 1.5 1 0 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.2 2 Interaction Strength 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.2 Interaction Strength (5-B) Cris Cross, n=1000 0.6 ' 5 20 1 MAP Error Bound ' MAP Error Bound MAP Error Bound 1.5 10 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 Field Strength (5-C) Cris Cross, n=1000 0.5 2 2 ' 0.3 0.2 0.5 (5-A) Criss Cross, n=100 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Interaction Strength Interaction Strength Figure 5: 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Field Strength The theoretically computable error bounds for log Z and MAP under our algorithm for cris-cross with n = 100 and n = 1000 under varying interaction and varying field model. This clearly shows scalability of our algorithm and robustness to graph structure. 8
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A Spectral Regularization Framework for Multi-Task Structure Learning Andreas Argyriou Department of Computer Science University College London Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK [email protected] Charles A. Micchelli Department of Mathematics and Statistics SUNY Albany 1400 Washington Avenue Albany, NY, 12222, USA Massimiliano Pontil Department of Computer Science University College London Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK [email protected] Yiming Ying Department of Engineering Mathematics University of Bristol University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK [email protected] Abstract Learning the common structure shared by a set of supervised tasks is an important practical and theoretical problem. Knowledge of this structure may lead to better generalization performance on the tasks and may also facilitate learning new tasks. We propose a framework for solving this problem, which is based on regularization with spectral functions of matrices. This class of regularization problems exhibits appealing computational properties and can be optimized efficiently by an alternating minimization algorithm. In addition, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for convexity of the regularizer. We analyze concrete examples of the framework, which are equivalent to regularization with Lp matrix norms. Experiments on two real data sets indicate that the algorithm scales well with the number of tasks and improves on state of the art statistical performance. 1 Introduction Recently, there has been renewed interest in the problem of multi-task learning, see [2, 4, 5, 14, 16, 19] and references therein. This problem is important in a variety of applications, ranging from conjoint analysis [12], to object detection in computer vision [18], to multiple microarray data set integration in computational biology [8] ? to mention just a few. A key objective in many multitask learning algorithms is to implement mechanisms for learning the possible structure underlying the tasks. Finding this common structure is important because it allows pooling information across the tasks, a property which is particularly appealing when there are many tasks but only few data per task. Moreover, knowledge of the common structure may facilitate learning new tasks (transfer learning), see [6] and references therein. In this paper, we extend the formulation of [4], where the structure shared by the tasks is described by a positive definite matrix. In Section 2, we propose a framework in which the task parameters and the structure matrix are jointly computed by minimizing a regularization function. This function has the following appealing property. When the structure matrix is fixed, the function decomposes across the tasks, which can hence be learned independently with standard methods such as SVMs. When the task parameters are fixed, the optimal structure matrix is a spectral function of the covariance of the tasks and can often be explicitly computed. As we shall see, spectral functions are of particular interest in this context because they lead to an efficient alternating minimization algorithm. 1 The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, in Section 3 we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for convexity of the optimization problem. Second, in Section 4 we characterize the spectral functions which relate to Schatten Lp regularization and present the alternating minimization algorithm. Third, in Section 5 we discuss the connection between our framework and the convex optimization method for learning the kernel [11, 15], which leads to a much simpler proof of the convexity in the kernel than the one given in [15]. Finally, in Section 6 we present experiments on two real data sets. The experiments indicate that the alternating algorithm runs significantly faster than gradient descent and that our method improves on state of the art statistical performance on these data sets. They also highlight that our approach can be used for transfer learning. 2 Modelling Tasks? Structure In this section, we introduce our multi-task learning framework. We denote by S d the set of d ? d symmetric matrices, by Sd+ (Sd++ ) the subset of positive semidefinite (definite) ones and by Od the set of d ? d orthogonal matrices. For every positive integer n, we define INn = {1, . . . , n}. We let T be the number of tasks which we want to simultaneously learn. We assume for simplicity that each task t ? INT is well described by a linear function defined, for every x ? IRd , as wt> x, where wt is a fixed vector of coefficients. For each task t ? INT , there are m data examples {(xtj , ytj ) : j ? INm } ? IRd ? IR available. In practice, the number of examples per task may vary but we have kept it constant for simplicity of notation. Our goal is to learn the vectors w1 , . . . , wT , as well as the common structure underlying the tasks, from the data examples. In this paper we follow the formulation in [4], where the tasks? structure is summarized by a positive definite matrix D which is linked to the covariance matrix between the tasks, W W > . Here, W denotes the d ? T matrix whose t-th column is given by the vector wt (we have assumed for simplicity that the mean task is zero). Specifically, we learn W and D by minimizing the function Reg(W, D) := Err(W ) + ? Penalty(W, D), (2.1) where ? is a positive parameter which balances the importance between the error and the penalty. The former may be any bounded from below and convex function evaluated at the values w t> xtj , tP? INT , j ? INm . Typically, P it will be the average error on the tasks, namely, Err(W ) = > L (w ), where L (w ) = t t t t t?INT j?INm `(ytj , wt xtj ) and ` : IR ? IR ? [0, ?) is a prescribed loss function (e.g. quadratic, SVM, logistic etc.). We shall assume that the loss ` is convex in its second argument, which ensures that the function Err is also convex. The latter term favors the tasks sharing some common structure and is given by T X Penalty(W, D) = tr(F (D)W W > ) = wt> F (D)wt , (2.2) t=1 where F : Sd++ ? Sd++ is a prescribed spectral matrix function. This is to say that F is induced by applying a function f : (0, ?) ? (0, ?) to the eigenvalues of its argument. That is, for every D ? Sd++ we write D = U ?U > , where U ? Od , ? = Diag(?1 , . . . , ?d ), and define F (D) = U F (?)U > , F (?) = Diag(f (?1 ), . . . , f (?d )). (2.3) In the rest of the paper, we will always use F to denote a spectral matrix function and f to denote the associated real function, as above. Minimization of the function Reg allows us to learn the tasks and at the same time a good representation for them which is summarized by the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the matrix D. Different choices of the function f reflect different properties which we would like the tasks to share. In the special case that f is a constant, the tasks are totally independent and the regularizer (2.2) is a sum of T independent L2 regularizers. In the case f (?) = ??1 , which is considered in [4], the regularizer favors a sparse representation in the sense that the tasks share a small common set of features. More generally, functions of the form f (?) = ??? , ? ? 0, allow for combining shared features and task-specific features to some degree tuned by the exponent ?. Moreover, the regularizer (2.2) ensures that the optimal representation (optimal D) is a function of the tasks? covariance W W > . Thus, we propose to solve the minimization problem n o inf Reg(W, D) : W ? IRd?T , D ? Sd++ , tr D ? 1 2 (2.4) for functions f belonging to an appropriate class. As we shall see in Section 4, the upper bound on the trace of D in (2.4) prevents the infimum from being zero, which would lead to overfitting. Moreover, even though the infimum above is not attained in general, the problem in W resulting after partial minimization over D admits a minimizer. Since the first term in (2.1) is independent of D, we can first optimize the second term with respect to D. That is, we can compute the infimum  ?f (W ) := inf tr(F (D)W W > ) : D ? Sd++ , tr D ? 1 . (2.5) In this way we could end up with an optimization problem in W only. However, in general this would be a complex matrix optimization problem. It may require sophisticated optimization tools such as semidefinite programming, which may not scale well with the size of W . Fortunately, as we shall show, problem (2.4) can be efficiently solved by alternately minimizing over D and W . In particular, in Section 4 we shall show that ?f is a function of the singular values of W only. Hence, the only matrix operation required by alternate minimization is singular value decomposition and the rest are merely vector problems. Finally, we note that the ideas above may be extended naturally to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space setting [3]. 3 Joint Convexity via Matrix Concave Functions In this section, we address the issue of convexity of the regularization function (2.1). Our main result characterizes the class of spectral functions F for which the term w > F (D)w is jointly convex in (w, D), which in turn implies that (2.4) is a convex optimization problem. To illustrate our result, we require the matrix analytic concept of concavity, see, for example, [7]. We say that the real-valued function g : (0, ?) ? IR is matrix concave of order d if ?A, B ? Sd++ and ? ? [0, 1] , ?G(A) + (1 ? ?)G(B)  G(?A + (1 ? ?)B) where G is defined as in (2.3). The notation  denotes the Loewner partial order on S d : C  D if and only if D ? C is positive semidefinite. If g is a matrix concave function of order d for any d ? IN, we simply say that g is matrix concave. We also say that g is matrix convex (of order d) if ?g is matrix concave (of order d). Clearly, matrix concavity implies matrix concavity of smaller orders (and hence standard concavity). Theorem 3.1. Let F : Sd++? Sd++ be a spectral function. Then the function ? : IRd ?Sd++? [0, ?) defined as ?(w, D) = w > F (D)w is jointly convex if and only if f1 is matrix concave of order d. Proof. By definition, ? is convex if and only if, for any w1 , w2 ? IRd , D1 , D2 ? Sd++ and ? ? (0, 1), it holds that ?(?w1 + (1 ? ?)w2 , ?D1 + (1 ? ?)D2 ) ? ??(w1 , D1 ) + (1 ? ?)?(w2 , D2 ). Let C := F (?D1 + (1 ? ?)D2 ), A := F (D1 )/?, B := F (D2 )/(1 ? ?), w := ?w1 + (1 ? ?)w2 and z := ?w1 . Using this notation, the above inequality can be rewritten as w> Cw ? z > Az + (w ? z)> B(w ? z) ? w, z ? IRd . (3.1) The right hand side in (3.1) is minimized for z = (A + B)?1 Bw and hence (3.1) is equivalent to  >  w> Cw ? w> B(A + B)?1 A(A + B)?1 B + I ? (A + B)?1 B B I ? (A + B)?1 B w , ? w ? IRd , or to C  B(A + B)?1 A(A + B)?1 B + I ? (A + B)?1 B > B I ? (A + B)?1 B  = B(A + B)?1 A(A + B)?1 B + B ? 2B(A + B)?1 B + B(A + B)?1 B(A + B)?1 B = B ? B(A + B)?1 B = (A?1 + B ?1 )?1 , where the last equality follows from the matrix inversion lemma [10, Sec. 0.7]. The above inequality is identical to (see e.g. [10, Sec. 7.7]) A?1 + B ?1  C ?1 , 3 or, using the initial notation, ?1 ?1 ?1 ? F (D1 ) + (1 ? ?) F (D2 )  F (?D1 + (1 ? ?)D2 ) . By definition, this inequality holds for any D1 , D2 ? Sd++ , ? ? (0, 1) if and only if concave of order d. 1 f is matrix Examples of matrix concave functions on (0, ?) are log(x + 1) and the function x s for s ? [0, 1] ? see [7] for other examples and theoretical results. We conclude with the remark that, whenever f1 is matrix concave of order d, function ?f in (2.5) is convex, because it is the partial infimum of a jointly convex function [9, Sec. IV.2.4]. 4 4.1 Regularization with Schatten Lp Prenorms Partial Minimization of the Penalty Term In this section, we focus on the family of negative power functions f and obtain that function ? f in (2.5) relates to the Schatten Lp prenorms. We start by showing that problem (2.5) reduces to a minimization problem in IRd , by application of a useful matrix inequality. In the following, we let B take the place of W W > for brevity. Lemma 4.1. Let F : Sd ? Sd be a spectral function, B ? Sd and ?i , i ? INd , the eigenvalues of B. Then, ) ( X X d ?i ? 1 . inf{tr(F (D)B) : D ? S++ , tr D ? 1} = inf f (?i )?i : ?i > 0, i ? INd , i?INd i?INd Moreover, for the infimum on the left to be attained, F (D) has to share a set of eigenvectors with B so that the corresponding eigenvalues are in the reverse order as the ?i . Proof. We use an inequality of Von Neumann [13, Sec. H.1.h] to obtain, for all X, Y ? S d , that X tr(XY ) ? ?i ?i i?INd where ?i and ?i are the eigenvalues of X and Y in nonincreasing and nondecreasing order, respectively. The equality is attained whenever X = U Diag(?)U > , Y = U Diag(?)U > for some U ? Od . Applying this inequality for X = F (D), Y = B and denoting f (?i ) = ?i , i ? INd , the result follows. Using this lemma, we can now derive the solution of problem (2.5) in the case that f is a negative power function. Proposition 4.2. Let B ? Sd+ and s ? (0, 1]. Then we have that n o 1 s?1 (tr B s ) s = inf tr(D s B) : D ? Sd++ , tr D ? 1 . Moreover, if B ? Sd++ the infimum is attained and the minimizer is given by D = Bs . tr B s Proof. By Lemma 4.1, it suffices to show the analogous statement for vectors, namely that ! 1s ( ) X s?1 X X s s ?i = inf ?i ?i : ?i > 0, i ? INd , ?i ? 1 i?INd i?INd i?INd 1 where ?i ? 0, i ? INd . To this end, we apply H?older?s inequality with p = 1s and q = 1?s : !s !1?s !s X s?1 X X  s?1 s X s?1 X ?is = ?i s ?i ?i1?s ? ?i s ?i ?i ? ?i s ?i . i?INd i?INd i?INd i?INd ?is When ?i > 0, i ? INd , the equality is attained for ?i = P inequality is P sharp in all other cases, we replace ?i by ?i,? s s ?i,? = ?i,? /( j ?j,? ) and take the limits as ? ? 0. 4 i?INd , i ? INd . To show that the ?js := ?i + ?, i ? INd , ? > 0, define j?INd The above result implies that the regularization problem (2.4) is conceptually equivalent to regular2 ization with a Schatten Lp prenorm of W , when the coupling function f takes the form f (x) = x1? p with p ? (0, 2], p = 2s. The Schatten Lp prenorm is the Lp prenorm of the singular values of a matrix. In particular, trace norm regularization (see [1, 17]) corresponds to the case p = 1. We also note that generalization error bounds for Schatten Lp norm regularization can be derived along the lines of [14]. 4.2 Learning Algorithm Lemma 4.1 demonstrates that optimization problems such as (2.4) with spectral regularizers of the form (2.2) are computationally appealing, since they decompose to vector problems in d variables along with singular value decomposition of the matrix W . In particular, for the Schatten L p prenorm with p ? (0, 2], the proof of Proposition 4.2 suggests a way to solve problem (2.4). We modify the penalty term (2.2) as  Penalty? (W, D) = tr F (D)(W W > + ?I) , (4.1) where ? > 0 and let Reg? (W, D) = Err(W ) + ? Penalty? (W, D) be the corresponding regularization function. By Proposition 4.2, for a fixed W ? IRd?T there is a unique minimizer of Penalty ? (under the constraints in (2.5)), given by the formula p (W W > + ?I) 2 p . tr(W W > + ?I) 2 Moreover, there exists a minimizer of problem (2.4), which is unique if p ? (1, 2]. D? (W ) = (4.2) Therefore, we can solve problem (2.4) using an alternating minimization algorithm, which is an extension of the one presented in [4] for the special case F (D) = D ?1 . Each iteration of the algorithm consists of two steps. In the first step, we keep D fixed and minimize over W . This consists in solving the problem ( ) X X d?T > min Lt (wt ) + ? wt F (D)wt : W ? IR . t?INT t?INT This minimization can be carried out independently for each task since the regularizer decouples 1 when D is fixed. Specifically, introducing new variables for (F (D)) 2 wt yields a standard L2 regularization problem for each task with the same kernel K(x, z) = x> (F (D))?1 z, x, z ? IRd . In other words, we simply learn the parameters wt ? the columns of matrix W ? independently by a regularization method, for example by an SVM or ridge regression method, for which there are well developed tool boxes. In the second step, we keep matrix W fixed and minimize over D using equation (4.2). Space limitations prevent us from providing a convergence proof of the algorithm. We only note that following the proof detailed in [3] for the case p = 1, one can show that the sequence produced by the algorithm converges to the unique minimizer of Reg ? if p ? [1, 2], or to a local minimizer if p ? (0, 1). Moreover, by [3, Thm. 3] as ? goes to zero the algorithm converges to a solution of problem (2.4), if p ? [1, 2]. In theory, an algorithm without ?-perturbation does not converge to a minimizer, since the columns of W and D always remain in the initial column space. In practice, however, we have observed that even such an algorithm converges to an optimal solution, because of round-off effects. 5 Relation to Learning the Kernel In this section, we discuss the connection between the multi-task framework (2.1)-(2.4) and the framework for learning the kernel, see [11, 15] and references therein. To this end, we define the kernel Kf (D)(x, z) = x> (F (D))?1 z, x, z ? IRd , the set of kernels Kf = {Kf (D) : D ? Sd++ , tr D ? 1} and, for every kernel K, the task kernel matrix Kt = (K(xti , xtj ) : i, j ? INm ), t ? INT . It is easy to prove, using Weyl?s monotonicity theorem [10, Sec. 4.3] and [7, Thm. V.2.5], that the set Kf is convex if and only if f1 is matrix concave. By the well-known representer theorem (see e.g. [11]), problem (2.4) is equivalent to minimizing the function ! X X `(yti , (Kt ct )i ) + ? c> (5.1) t Kt c t t?INT i?INm 5 over ct ? IRm (for t ? INT ) and K ? Kf . It is apparent that the function (5.1) is not jointly convex in ct and K. However, minimizing each term over the vector ct gives a convex function of K. Proposition 5.1. Let K be the set of all reproducing kernels on IRd . If `(y, ?) is convex for any y ? IR then the function Et : K ? [0, ?) defined for every K ? K as ) ( X m > `(yti , (Kt c)i ) + ? c Kt c : c ? IR Et (K) = min i?INm is convex. Proof. Without loss of generality, we can assume as in [15] that KP t are invertible for all t ? INT . For every a ? IRm and K ? K , we define the function Gt (a, K) = i?INm `(yti , ai )+? a> Kt?1 a, which is jointly convex by Theorem 3.1. Clearly, Et (K) = min{Gt (a, K) : a ? IRm }. Recalling that the partial minimum of a jointly convex function is convex [9, Sec. IV.2.4], we obtain the convexity of Et . The fact that the function Et is convex has already been proved in [15], using minimax theorems and Fenchel duality. Here, we were able to simplify the proof of this result by appealing to the joint convexity property stated in Theorem 3.1. 6 Experiments In this section, we first report a comparison of the computational cost between the alternating minimization algorithm and the gradient descent algorithm. We then study how performance varies for different Lp regularizers, compare our approach with other multi-task learning methods and report experiments on transfer learning. We used two data sets in our experiments. The first one is the computer survey data from [12]. It was taken from a survey of 180 persons who rated the likelihood of purchasing one of 20 different personal computers. Here the persons correspond to tasks and the computer models to examples. The input represents 13 different computer characteristics (price, CPU, RAM etc.) while the output is an integer rating on the scale 0 ? 10. Following [12], we used the first 8 examples per task as the training data and the last 4 examples per task as the test data. We measured the root mean square error of the predicted from the actual ratings for the test data, averaged across people. The second data set is the school data set from the Inner London Education Authority (see http://www.cmm.bristol.ac.uk/learning-training/multilevel-m-support/datasets.shtml). It consists of examination scores of 15362 students from 139 secondary schools in London. Thus, there are 139 tasks, corresponding to predicting student performance in each school. The input consists of the year of the examination, 4 school-specific and 3 student-specific attributes. Following [5], we replaced categorical attributes with binary ones, to obtain 27 attributes in total. We generated the training and test sets by 10 random splits of the data, so that 75% of the examples from each school (task) belong to the training set and 25% to the test set. Here, in order to compare our results with those in [5], we used the measure of percentage explained variance, which is defined as one minus the mean squared test error over the variance of the test data and indicates the percentage of variance explained by the prediction model. Finally, we note that in both data sets we used the square loss, tuned the regularization parameter ? with 5-fold cross-validation and added an additional input component accounting for the bias term. In the first experiment, we study the computational cost of the alternating minimization algorithm against the gradient descent algorithm, both implemented in Matlab, for the Schatten L 1.5 norm. The left plot in Figure 1 shows the value of the objective function (2.1) versus the number of iterations, on the computer survey data. The curves for different learning rates ? are shown, whereas for rates greater than 0.05 gradient descent diverges. The alternating algorithm curve for ? = 10 ?16 is also shown. We further note that for both data sets our algorithm typically needed less than 30 iterations to converge. The right plot depicts the CPU time (in seconds) needed to reach a value of the objective function which is less than 10?5 away from the minimum, versus the number of tasks. It is clear that our algorithm is at least an order of magnitude faster than gradient descent with the optimal learning rate and scales better with the number of tasks. We note that the computational cost of our method is mainly due to the T ridge regressions in the supervised step (learning W ) and the singular 6 value decomposition in the unsupervised step (learning D). A singular value decomposition is also needed in gradient descent, for computing the gradient of the Schatten Lp norm. We have observed that the cost per iteration is smaller for gradient descent but the number of iterations is at least an order of magnitude larger, leading to the large difference in time cost. 28.5 6 ? = 0.05 ? = 0.03 ? = 0.01 Alternating 28 27.5 Alternating ? = 0.05 5 4 27 seconds Reg 26.5 3 26 2 25.5 1 25 24.5 0 20 40 60 80 0 50 100 100 150 200 tasks iterations Figure 1: Comparison between the alternating algorithm and the gradient descent algorithm. 4 0.27 0.265 3.5 0.26 3 0.255 RMSE expl. variance 0.25 2.5 0.245 2 0.24 1.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.235 0.4 1.8 p 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 p Figure 2: Performance versus p for the computer survey data (left) and the school data (right). Table 1: Comparison of different methods on the computer survey data (left) and school data (right). Method p=2 p=1 p = 0.7 Hierarchical Bayes [12] RMSE 3.88 1.93 1.86 1.90 Method p=2 p=1 Hierarchical Bayes [5] Explained variance 23.5 ? 2.0% 26.7 ? 2.0% 29.5 ? 0.4% In the second experiment we study the statistical performance of our method as the spectral function changes. Specifically, we choose functions giving rise to Schatten Lp prenorms, as discussed in Section 4. The results, shown in Figure 2, indicate that the trace norm is the best norm on these data sets. However, on the computer survey data a value of p less than one gives the best result overall. From this we speculate that our method can even approximate well the solutions of certain non-convex problems. In contrast, on the school data the trace norm gives almost the best result. Next, in Table 1, we compare our algorithm with the hierarchical Bayes (HB) method described in [5, 12]. This method also learns a matrix D using Bayesian inference. Our method improves on the HB method on the computer survey data and is competitive on the school data (even though our regularizer is simpler than HB and the data splits of [5] are not available). Finally, we present preliminary results on transfer learning. On the computer survey data, we trained our method with p = 1 on 150 randomly selected tasks and then used the learned structure matrix D for training 30 ridge regressions on the remaining tasks. We obtained an RMSE of 1.98 on these 30 ?new? tasks, which is not much worse than an RMSE of 1.88 on the 150 tasks. In comparison, when 7 using the raw data (D = dI ) on the 30 tasks we obtained an RMSE of 3.83. A similar experiment was performed on the school data, first training on a random subset of 110 schools and then transferring D to the remaining 29 schools. We obtained an explained variance of 19.2% on the new tasks. This was worse than the explained variance of 24.8% on the 110 tasks but still better than the explained variance of 13.9% with the raw representation. 7 Conclusion We have presented a spectral regularization framework for learning the structure shared by many supervised tasks. This structure is summarized by a positive definite matrix which is a spectral function of the tasks? covariance matrix. The framework is appealing both theoretically and practically. Theoretically, it brings to bear the rich class of spectral functions which is well-studied in matrix analysis. Practically, we have argued via the concrete example of negative power spectral functions, that the tasks? parameters and the structure matrix can be efficiently computed using an alternating minimization algorithm, improving upon state of the art statistical performance on two real data sets. A natural question is to which extent the framework can be generalized to allow for more complex task sharing mechanisms, in which the structure parameters depend on higher order statistical properties of the tasks. Acknowledgements This work was supported by EPSRC Grant EP/D052807/1, NSF Grant DMS 0712827 and by the IST Programme of the European Commission, PASCAL Network of Excellence IST-2002-506778. References [1] J. Abernethy, F. Bach, T. Evgeniou, and J-P. Vert. Low-rank matrix factorization with attributes. Technical Report N24/06/MM, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 2006. [2] R. K. Ando and T. Zhang. A framework for learning predictive structures from multiple tasks and unlabeled data. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1817?1853, 2005. [3] A. Argyriou, T. Evgeniou, and M. Pontil. Convex multi-task feature learning. Machine Learning, 2007. In press. [4] A. Argyriou, T. Evgeniou, and M. Pontil. Multi-task feature learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 41?48. 2007. [5] B. Bakker and T. Heskes. Task clustering and gating for bayesian multi?task learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:83?99, 2003. [6] J. Baxter. A model for inductive bias learning. J. of Artificial Intelligence Research, 12:149?198, 2000. [7] R. Bhatia. Matrix Analysis. Graduate texts in Mathematics. Springer, 1997. [8] R. Chari, W.W. Lockwood, and B.P. Coe et al. Sigma: a system for integrative genomic microarray analysis of cancer genomes. BMC Genomics, 7:324, 2006. [9] J.-B. Hiriart-Urruty and C. Lemar?echal. Convex Analysis and Minimization Algorithms. Springer, 1996. [10] R. A. Horn and C. R. Johnson. Matrix Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 1985. [11] G.R.G. Lanckriet, N. Cristianini, P. Bartlett, L. El Ghaoui, and M.I. Jordan. Learning the kernel matrix with semidefinite programming. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:27?72, 2005. [12] P. J. Lenk, W. S. DeSarbo, P. E. Green, and M. R. Young. Hierarchical Bayes conjoint analysis: recovery of partworth heterogeneity from reduced experimental designs. Marketing Science, 15(2):173?191, 1996. [13] A. W. Marshall and I. Olkin. Inequalities: Theory of Majorization and its Applications. Academic Press, 1979. [14] A. Maurer. Bounds for linear multi-task learning. J. of Machine Learning Research, 7:117?139, 2006. [15] C.A. Micchelli and M. Pontil. Learning the kernel function via regularization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1099?1125, 2005. [16] R. Raina, A. Y. Ng, and D. Koller. Constructing informative priors using transfer learning. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2006. [17] N. Srebro, J. D. M. Rennie, and T. S. Jaakkola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 1329?1336. 2005. [18] A. Torralba, K. P. Murphy, and W. T. Freeman. Sharing features: efficient boosting procedures for multiclass object detection. In Proc. of Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. 2:762-769, 2004. [19] J. Zhang, Z. Ghahramani, and Y. Yang. Learning multiple related tasks using latent independent component analysis. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 18, pages 1585?1592. 2006. 8
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Catching Change-points with Lasso Zaid Harchaoui, C?eline L?evy-Leduc LTCI, TELECOM ParisTech and CNRS 37/39 Rue Dareau, 75014 Paris, France {zharchao,levyledu}@enst.fr Abstract We propose a new approach for dealing with the estimation of the location of change-points in one-dimensional piecewise constant signals observed in white noise. Our approach consists in reframing this task in a variable selection context. We use a penalized least-squares criterion with a `1 -type penalty for this purpose. We prove some theoretical results on the estimated change-points and on the underlying piecewise constant estimated function. Then, we explain how to implement this method in practice by combining the LAR algorithm and a reduced version of the dynamic programming algorithm and we apply it to synthetic and real data. 1 Introduction Change-points detection tasks are pervasive in various fields, ranging from audio [10] to EEG segmentation [5]. The goal is to partition a signal into several homogeneous segments of variable durations, in which some quantity remains approximately constant over time. This issue was addressed in a large literature (see [20] [11]), where the problem was tackled both from an online (sequential) [1] and an off-line (retrospective) [5] points of view. Most off-line approaches rely on a Dynamic Programming algorithm (DP), allowing to retrieve K change-points within n observations of a signal with a complexity of O(Kn2 ) in time [11]. Such a feature refrains practitioners from applying these methods to large datasets. Moreover, one often observes a sub-optimal behavior of the raw DP algorithm on real datasets. We suggest here to slightly depart from this line of research, by focusing on a reformulation of change-point estimation in a variable selection framework. Then, estimating change-point locations off-line turns into performing variable selection on dummy variables representing all possible change-point locations. This allows us to take advantage of the latest theoretical [23], [3] and practical [7] advances in regression with Lasso penalty. Indeed, Lasso provides us with a very efficient method for selecting potential change-point locations. This selection is then refined by using the DP algorithm to estimate the change-point locations. Let us outline the paper. In Section 2, we first describe our theoretical reformulation of off-line change-point estimation as regression with a Lasso penalty. Then, we show that the estimated magnitude of jumps are close in mean, in a sense to be precized, to the true magnitude of jumps. We also give a non asymptotic inequality to upper-bound the `2 -loss of the true underlying piecewise constant function and the estimated one. We describe our algorithm in Section 3. In Section 4, we discuss related works. Finally, we provide experimental evidence of the relevance of our approach. 1 2 2.1 Theoretical approach Framework We describe, in this section, how off-line change-point estimation can be cast as a variable selection problem. Off-line estimation of change-point locations within a signal (Yt ) consists in estimating the ?k? ?s in the following model: ? Yt = ??k + ?t , t = 1, . . . , n such that ?k?1 + 1 ? t ? ?k? , 1 ? k ? K ? with ?0? = 0, (1) where ?t are i.i.d zero-mean random variables with finite variance. This problem can be reformulated as follows. Let us consider: Yn = Xn ? n + ?n (2) where Yn is a n ? 1 vector of observations, Xn is a n ? n lower triangular matrix with nonzero elements equal to one and ?n = (?n1 , . . . , ?nn )0 is a zero-mean random vector such that the ?nj ?s are i.i.d with finite variance. As for ? n , it is a n ? 1 vector having all its components equal to zero except those corresponding to the change-point instants. The above multiple change-point estimation problem (1) can thus be tackled as a variable selection one: 2 Minimize kYn ? Xn ?kn subject to k?k1 ? s , ? (3) Pn where kuk1 and kukn are defined for a vector u = (u1 , . . . , un ) ? Rn by kuk1 = j=1 |uj | Pn 2 ?1 2 and kukn = n j=1 uj respectively. Indeed, the above formulation amounts to minimize the following counterpart objective in model (1): n Minimize ?1 ,...,?n 1X (Yt ? ?t )2 n t=1 subject to n?1 X t=1 |?t+1 ? ?t | ? s, (4) which consists in imposing an `1 -constraint on the magnitude of jumps. The underpinning insight is the sparsity-enforcing property of the `1 -constraint, which is expected to give a sparse vector, whose non-zero components would match with those of ? n and thus with change-point locations. It is related to the popular Least Absolute Shrinkage eStimatOr (LASSO) in least-square regression of [21], used for efficient variable selection. In the next section, we provide two results supporting the use of the formulation (3) for off-line multiple change-point estimation. We show that estimates of jumps minimizing (3) are consistent in mean, and we provide a non asymptotic upper bound for the `2 loss of the underlying estimated piecewise constant function and the true underlying piecewise function. This inequality shows that, at a precized rate, the estimated piecewise constant function tends to the true piecewise constant function with a probability tending to one. 2.2 Main results In this section, we shall study the properties of the solutions of the problem (3) defined by n o 2 ??n (?) = Arg min kYn ? Xn ?kn + ?k?k1 . (5) ? Let us now introduce the notation sign. It maps positive entry to 1, negative entry to -1 and a null entry to zero. Let A = {k, ?kn 6= 0} and A = {1, . . . , n}\A (6) n and let C the covariance matrix be defined by C n = n?1 Xn0 Xn . (7) In a general regression framework, [18] recall that, with probability tending to one, ??n (?) and ? n have the same sign for a well-chosen ?, only if the following condition holds element-wise: ? n ? n n ? ?C (CAA )?1 sign(?A ) < 1, (8) AA n where CIJ is a sub-matrix of C n obtained by keeping rows with index in the set I and columns with n n index in J. The vector ?A is defined by ?A = (?kn )k?A . The condition (8) is not fulfilled in the 2 change-point framework implying that we cannot have a perfect estimation of the change-points as it is already known, see [13]. But, following [18] and [3], we can prove some consistency results, see Propositions 1 and 2 below. In the following, we shall assume that the number of break points is equal to K ? . The following proposition ensures that for a large enough value of n the estimated change-point locations are close to the true change-points. Proposition 1. Assume that the observations (Yn ) are given by (2) and that the ?nj ?s are centered. ? If ? = ?n is such that ?n n ? 0 as n tends to infinity then kE(??n (?n )) ? ? n kn ? 0 . Proof. We shall follow the proof of Theorem 1 in [18]. For this, we denote ? n (?) the estimator ??n (?) under the absence of noise and ?n (?) the bias associated to the Lasso estimator: ?n (?) = ? n (?) ? ? n . For notational simplicity, we shall write ? instead of ?n (?). Note that ? satisfies the following minimization: ? = Arg min??Rn f (?) , where X X f (?) = ? 0 C n ? + ? |?kn + ?k | + ? |?k | . ? k?A k?A Since f (?) ? f (0), we get ?0C n? + ? X k?A |?kn + ?k | + ? X ? k?A |?k | ? ? X k?A |?kn | . We thus obtain using the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality the following upper bound ? n !1/2 X X ? 0 n 2 ?C ??? |?k | ? ? K ? |?k | . k?A k=1 ? Pn Using that ? 0 C n ? ? n?1 k=1 |?k |2 , we obtain: k?kn ? ? nK ? . The following proposition ensures, thanks to a non asymptotic result, that the estimated underlying piecewise function is close to the true piecewise constant function. Proposition 2. Assume that the observations (Yn ) are given by (2) and that the ?nj ?s are centered iid Gaussian random variables with variance ? 2 > 0. Assume also that (?kn )k?A belong to (?min , ?max ) ? 1?A2 /2 where ?min , if p> 0. For all n ? 1 and A > 2 then, with a probability larger than 1 ? n ?n = A? log n/n, r log n n n 2 ? ? kXn (? (?n ) ? ? )kn ? 2A??max K . n Proof. By definition of ??n (?) in (5) as a minimizer of a criterion, we have kYn ? Xn ??n (?)k2n + ?k??n (?)k1 ? kYn ? Xn ? n kn + ?k? n k1 . 2 Using (2), we get n n X X 2 |?jn | . kXn (? n ? ??n (?))k2n + (? n ? ??n (?))0 Xn0 ?n + ? |??jn (?)| ? ? n j=1 j=1 Thus, X X 2 kXn (? n ? ??n (?))k2n ? (??n (?) ? ? n )0 Xn0 ?n + ? (|?jn | ? |??jn (?)|) ? ? |??jn (?)| . n ? j?A Observe that j?A ? n X 2 ?n 1 (? (?) ? ? n )0 Xn0 ?n = 2 (??jn (?) ? ?jn ) ? ?ni ? . n n j=1 i=j n X 3 ? ?P ? o Tn n ? n ? Let us define the event E = j=1 n?1 ? i=j ?ni ? ? ? . Then, using the fact that the ?ni ?s are iid zero-mean Gaussian random variables, we obtain ? ? ? ? ? n ? ? ? n n X X ? X ? n2 ?2 ?1 n ? ? ? ? ? P(E) ? P n ? ?i ? > ? ? exp ? 2 . 2? (n ? j + 1) ? i=j ? j=1 j=1 p Thus, if ? = ?n = A? log n/n, ? ? n1?A2 /2 . P(E) With a probability larger than 1 ? n1?A kXn (? n ? ??n (?))k2n ? ?n n X j=1 2 /2 , we get |??jn (?) ? ?jn | + ?n X (|?jn | ? |??jn |) ? ?n j?A X ? j?A |??jn | . 2 We thus obtain with a probability larger than 1 ? n1?A /2 the following upper bound r r X log n X n log n n n 2 n ? ? kXn (? ? ? (?))kn ? 2?n |?j | = 2A? |?j | ? 2A??max K . n n j?A j?A 3 Practical approach The previous results need to be efficiently implemented to cope with finite datasets. Our algorithm, called Cachalot (CAtching CHAnge-points with LassO), can be split into the following three steps described hereafter. Estimation with a Lasso penalty We compute the first Kmax non-null coefficients ???1 , . . . , ???Kmax on the regularization path of the LASSO problem (3). The LAR/LASSO algorithm, as described in [7], provides an efficient algorithm to compute the entire regularization path for the LASSO problem. P Since j |?j | ? s is a sparsity-enforcing constraint, the set {j, ??j 6= 0} = {?j } becomes larger as we run through the regularization path. We shall denote by S the Kmax -selected variables: S = {?1 , . . . , ?Kmax } . (9) The computational complexity of the Kmax -long regularization path of LASSO solutions is 3 2 n). Most of the time, we can see that the Lasso effectively catches the true change+ Kmax O(Kmax point but also irrelevant change-points at the vicinity of the true ones. Therefore, we propose to refine the set of change-points caught by the Lasso by performing a post-selection. Reduced Dynamic Programming algorithm One can consider several strategies to remove irrelevant change-points from the ones retrieved by the Lasso. Among them, since usually in applications, one is only interested in change-point estimation up to a given accuracy, we could launch the Lasso on a subsample of the signal. Here, we suggest to perform post-selection by using the standard Dynamic Programming algorithm (DP) thoroughly described in [11] (Chapter 12, p. 450) but on the reduced set S instead of {1, . . . , n}. This algorithm allows one to efficiently minimize the following objective for each K in {1, . . . , Kmax }: J(K) = Min ?1 <???<?K s.t ?1 ,...,?K ?S K X k=1 ?k X (Yi ? ? ?k )2 , (10) i=?k?1 +1 S being defined in (9) and outputs for each K, the corresponding subset of change-points (? ?1 , . . . , ??K ). The DP algorithm has a computational complexity of O(Kmax n2 ) if we look for at most Kmax change-points within the signal. Here, our reduced DP calculations (rDP) scales 2 as O(Kmax Kmax ) where Kmax is the maximum number of change-points/variables selected by LAR/LASSO algorithm. Since typically Kmax ? n, our method thus provides a reduction of the computational burden associated with the classical change-points detection approach which consists in running the DP algorithm over all the n observations. 4 Selecting the number of change-points The point is now to select the adequate number of change-points. As n ? ?, according to [15], the ratio ?k = J(k + 1)/J(k) should show different qualitative behavior when k 6 K ? and when k > K ? , K ? being the true number of change-points. In particular, ?k ? Cn for k > K ? , where Cn ? 1 as n ? ?. Actually we found out that Cn was close to 1, even in small-sample settings, for various experimental designs in terms of noise variance and true number of change-points. Hence, conciliating theoretical guidance in large-sample setting and experimental findings in fixed-sample setting, we suggest the following rule of thumb for select? :K ? = Mink?1 {?k ? 1 ? ?} , where ?k = J(k + 1)/J(k). ing the number of change-points K Cachalot Algorithm Input ? Vector of observations Y ? Rn ? Upper bound Kmax on the number of change-points ? Model selection threshold ? Processing 1. Compute the first Kmax non-null coefficients (??1 , . . . , ??Kmax ) on the regularization path with the LAR/LASSO algorithm. 2. Launch the rDP algorithm on the set of potential change-points (?1 , . . . , ?Kmax ). 3. Select the smallest subset of the potential change-points (?1 , . . . , ?Kmax ) selected by the rDP algorithm for which ?k ? 1 ? ?. Output Change-point locations estimates ??1 , . . . , ??K? . To illustrate our algorithm, we consider observations (Yn ) satisfying model (2) with (?30 , ?50 , ?70 , ?90 ) = (5, ?3, 4, ?2), the other ?j being equal to zero, n = 100 and ?n a Gaussian random vector with a covariance matrix equal to Id, Id being a n ? n identity matrix. The set of the first nine active variables caught by the Lasso along the regularization path, i.e. the set {k, ??k 6= 0} is given in this case by: S = {21, 23, 28, 29, 30, 50, 69, 70, 90}. The set S contains the true change-points but also irrelevant ones close to the true change-points. Moreover the most significant variables do not necessarily appear at the beginning. This supports the use of the reduced version of the DP algorithm hereafter. Table 1 gathers the J(K), K = 1, . . . , Kmax and the corresponding (? ?1 , . . . , ??K ). Table 1: Toy example: The empirical risk J and the estimated change-points as a function of the possible number of change-points K K 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 J(K) 696.28 249.24 209.94 146.29 120.21 118.22 116.97 116.66 116.65 116.64 (? ?1 , . . . , ??K ) ? 30 (30,70) (30,50,69) (30,50,70,90) (30,50,69,70,90) (21,30,50,69,70,90) (21,29,30,50,69,70,90) (21,23,29,30,50,69,70,90) (21,23,28,29,30,50,69,70,90) The different values of the ratio ?k for k = 0, . . . , 8 of the model selection procedure are given in ? = 4 and that the change-points Table 2. Here we took ? = 0.05. We conclude, as expected, that K are (30, 50, 70, 90), thanks to the results obtained in Table 1. 4 Discussion Off-line multiple change-point estimation has recently received much attention in theoretical works, both in a non-asymptotic and in an asymptotic setting by [17] and [13] respectively. From a practi? cal point of view, retrieving the set of change-point locations {?1? , . . . , ?K } is challenging, since it is 5 Table 2: Toy example: The values of the ratio (?k = J(k + 1)/J(k), k = 0, . . . , 8) k ?k 0 0.3580 1 0.8423 2 0.6968 3 0.8218 4 0.9834 5 0.9894 6 0.9974 7 0.9999 8 1.0000 plagued by the curse of dimensionality. Indeed, all of the n observation times have to be considered as potential change-point instants. Yet, a dynamic programming algorithm (DP), proposed by [9] and [2], allows to explore all the configurations with a complexity of O(n3 ) in time. Then selecting the number of change-points is usually performed thanks to a Schwarz-like penalty ?n K, where ?n has to be calibrated on data [13] [12], or a penalty K(a + b log(n/K)) as in [17] [14], where a and b are data-driven as well. We should also mention that an abundant literature tackles both change-point estimation and model selection issues from a Bayesian point of view (see [20] [8] and references therein). All approaches cited above rely on DP, or variants in Bayesian settings, and hence yield a computational complexity of O(n3 ), which makes them inappropriate for very largescale signal segmentation. Moreover, despite its theoretical optimality in a maximum likelihood framework, raw DP may sometimes have poor performances when applied to very noisy observations. Our alternative framework for multiple change-point estimation was previously elusively mentioned several times, e.g. in [16] [4] [19]. However up to our knowledge neither successful practical implementation nor theoretical grounding was given so far to support such an approach for change-point estimation. Let us also mention [22], where the Fused Lasso is applied in a similar yet different way to perform hot-spot detection. However, this approach includes an additional penalty, penalizing departures from the overall mean of the observations, and should thus rather be considered as an outlier detection method. 5 5.1 Comparison with other methods Synthetic data We propose to compare our algorithm with a recent method based on a penalized least-squares criterion studied by [12]. The main difficulty in such approaches is the choice of the constants appearing in the penalty. In [12], a very efficient approach to overcome this difficulty has been proposed: the choice of the constants is completely data-driven and has been implemented in a toolbox available online at http://www.math.u-psud.fr/?lavielle/programs/index.html. In the following, we benchmark our algorithm: A together with the latter method: B. We shall use Recall and Precision as relevant performance measures to analyze the previous two algorithms. More precisely, the Recall corresponds to the ratio of change-points retrieved by a method with those really present in the data. As for the Precision, it corresponds to the number of change-points retrieved divided by the number of suggested change-points. We shall also estimate the probability of false alarm corresponding to the number of suggested change-points which are not present in the signal divided by the number of true change-points. To compute the precision and the recall of methods A and B, we ran Monte-Carlo experiments. More precisely, we sampled 30 configurations of change-points for each real number of change-points K ? equal to 5, 10, 15 and 20 within a signal containing 500 observations. Change-points were at least distant of 10 observations. We sampled 30 configurations of levels from a Gaussian distribution. We used the following setting for the noise: for each configuration of change-points and levels, we synthesized a Gaussian white noise such that the standard deviation is set to a multiple of the minimum magnitude jump between two contiguous segments, i.e. ? = m Mink (??k+1 ? ??k ), ??k being the level of the kth segment. The number of noise replications was set to 10. As shown in Tables 3, 4 and 5 below, our method A yields competitive results compared to method B with 1 ? ? = 0.99 and Kmax = 50. Performances in recall are comparable whereas method A provides better results than method B in terms of precision and false alarm rate. 5.2 Real data In this section, we propose to apply our method previously described to real data which have already been analyzed by Bayesian methods: the well-log data which are described in [20] and [6] and 6 Table 3: Precision of methods A and B ? Method m = 0.1 m = 0.5 m = 1.0 m = 1.5 K =5 A B 0.81?0.15 0.71?0.29 0.8?0.16 0.73?0.29 0.78?0.17 0.71?0.27 0.73?0.19 0.66?0.28 Method m = 0.1 m = 0.5 m = 1.0 m = 1.5 K? = 5 A B 0.99?0.02 0.99?0.02 0.98?0.04 0.99?0.03 0.95?0.08 0.94?0.08 0.85?0.16 0.87?0.15 K ? = 10 A B 0.89?0.08 0.8?0.22 0.89?0.08 0.8?0.21 0.88?0.09 0.78?0.21 0.84?0.1 0.79?0.2 K ? = 15 A B 0.95?0.05 0.86?0.13 0.95?0.05 0.86?0.13 0.93?0.06 0.85?0.13 0.93?0.06 0.84?0.13 K ? = 20 A B 0.97?0.03 0.91?0.09 0.97?0.03 0.92?0.09 0.96?0.04 0.9?0.09 0.95?0.04 0.9?0.1 Table 4: Recall of methods A and B K ? = 10 A B 1?0 1?0 0.99?0.01 0.99?0.01 0.96?0.06 0.96?0.05 0.92?0.07 0.91?0.09 K ? = 15 A B 0.99?0 0.99?0 0.99?0.01 0.99?0.01 0.97?0.03 0.97?0.04 0.94?0.06 0.94?0.06 K ? = 20 A B 0.99?0 1?0 0.99?0.01 1?0 0.97?0.03 0.98?0.02 0.95?0.04 0.96?0.04 Table 5: False alarm rate of methods A and B ? K =5 A B 0.13?0.03 0.23?0.2 0.13?0.03 0.22?0.2 0.13?0.03 0.21?0.18 0.13?0.03 0.21?0.2 Method m = 0.1 m = 0.5 m = 1.0 m = 1.5 K ? = 10 A B 0.24?0.03 0.33?0.19 0.23?0.03 0.32?0.18 0.23?0.03 0.32?0.18 0.23?0.03 0.29?0.16 K ? = 15 A B 0.34?0.02 0.42?0.13 0.33?0.02 0.41?0.13 0.33?0.02 0.4?0.13 0.31?0.03 0.4?0.15 K ? = 20 A B 0.44?0.02 0.51?0.12 0.44?0.02 0.5?0.11 0.43?0.03 0.5?0.12 0.42?0.03 0.48?0.11 displayed in Figure 1. They consist in nuclear magnetic response measurements expected to carry information about rock structure and especially its stratification. One distinctive feature of these data is that they typically contain a non-negligible amount of outliers. The multiple change-point estimation method should then, either be used after a data cleaning step (median filtering [6]), or explicitly make heavy-tailed noise distribution assumption. We restricted ourselves to a median filtering pre-processing. The results given by our method applied to the welllog data processed with a median filter are displayed in Figure 1 for Kmax = 200 and 1 ? ? = 0.99. The vertical lines locate the change-points. We can note that they are close to those found out by [6] (P. 206) who used Bayesian techniques to perform change-points detection. 5 5 1.5 1.4 x 10 x 10 1.35 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.15 1 1.1 0.9 1.05 0.8 1 0.7 0.95 0.6 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 0.9 0 4500 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Figure 1: Left: Raw well-log data, Right: Change-points locations obtained with our method in well-log data processed with a median filter 7 6 Conclusion and prospects We proposed here to cast the multiple change-point estimation as a variable selection problem. A least-square criterion with a Lasso-penalty yields an efficient primary estimation of change-point locations. Yet these change-point location estimates can be further refined thanks to a reduced dynamic programming algorithm. We obtained competitive performances on both artificial and real data, in terms of precision, recall and false alarm. Thus, Cachalot is a computationally efficient multiple change-point estimation method, paving the way for processing large datasets. References [1] M. Basseville and N. Nikiforov. The detection of abrupt changes. Information and System sciences series. Prentice-Hall, 1993. [2] R. Bellman. On the approximation of curves by line segments using dynamic programming. Communications of the ACM, 4(6), 1961. [3] P. Bickel, Y. Ritov, and A. Tsybakov. Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector. Preprint 2007. [4] L. Boysen, A. Kempe, A. Munk, V. Liebscher, and O. Wittich. Consistencies and rates of convergence of jump penalized least squares estimators. Annals of Statistics, In revision. [5] B. Brodsky and B. Darkhovsky. Non-parametric statistical diagnosis: problems and methods. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000. [6] O. Capp?e, E. Moulines, and T. Ryden. Inference in Hidden Markov Models (Springer Series in Statistics). Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 2005. [7] B. Efron, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Least angle regression. Annals of Statistics, 32:407?499, 2004. [8] P. Fearnhead. Exact and efficient bayesian inference for multiple changepoint problems. Statistics and Computing, 16:203?213, 2006. [9] W. D. Fisher. On grouping for maximum homogeneity. Journal of the American Statistical Society, 53:789?798, 1958. [10] O. Gillet, S. Essid, and G. Richard. On the correlation of automatic audio and visual segmentation of music videos. IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems for Video Technology, 2007. [11] S. M. Kay. Fundamentals of statistical signal processing: detection theory. Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1993. [12] M. Lavielle. Using penalized contrasts for the change-points problems. Signal Processing, 85(8):1501? 1510, 2005. [13] M. Lavielle and E. Moulines. Least-squares estimation of an unknown number of shifts in a time series. Journal of time series analysis, 21(1):33?59, 2000. [14] E. Lebarbier. Detecting multiple change-points in the mean of a gaussian process by model selection. Signal Processing, 85(4):717?736, 2005. [15] C.-B. L. Lee. Estimating the number of change-points in a sequence of independent random variables. Statistics and Probability Letters, 25:241?248, 1995. [16] E. Mammen and S. Van De Geer. Locally adaptive regression splines. Annals of Statistics, 1997. [17] P. Massart. A non asymptotic theory for model selection. pages 309?323. European Mathematical Society, 2005. [18] N. Meinshausen and B. Yu. Lasso-type recovery of sparse representations for high-dimensional data. Preprint 2006. [19] S. Rosset and J. Zhu. Piecewise linear regularized solution paths. Annals of Statistics, 35, 2007. [20] J. Ruanaidh and W. Fitzgerald. Numerical Bayesian Methods Applied to Signal Processing. Statistics and Computing. Springer, 1996. [21] R. Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 58(1):267?288, 1996. [22] R. Tibshirani and P. Wang. Spatial smoothing and hot spot detection for cgh data using the fused lasso. Biostatistics, 9(1):18?29, 2008. [23] P. Zhao and B. Yu. On model selection consistency of lasso. Journal Of Machine Learning Research, 7, 2006. 8
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Multi-task Gaussian Process Prediction Edwin V. Bonilla, Kian Ming A. Chai, Christopher K. I. Williams School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, 5 Forrest Hill, Edinburgh EH1 2QL, UK [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Abstract In this paper we investigate multi-task learning in the context of Gaussian Processes (GP). We propose a model that learns a shared covariance function on input-dependent features and a ?free-form? covariance matrix over tasks. This allows for good flexibility when modelling inter-task dependencies while avoiding the need for large amounts of data for training. We show that under the assumption of noise-free observations and a block design, predictions for a given task only depend on its target values and therefore a cancellation of inter-task transfer occurs. We evaluate the benefits of our model on two practical applications: a compiler performance prediction problem and an exam score prediction task. Additionally, we make use of GP approximations and properties of our model in order to provide scalability to large data sets. 1 Introduction Multi-task learning is an area of active research in machine learning and has received a lot of attention over the past few years. A common set up is that there are multiple related tasks for which we want to avoid tabula rasa learning by sharing information across the different tasks. The hope is that by learning these tasks simultaneously one can improve performance over the ?no transfer? case (i.e. when each task is learnt in isolation). However, as pointed out in [1] and supported empirically by [2], assuming relatedness in a set of tasks and simply learning them together can be detrimental. It is therefore important to have models that will generally benefit related tasks and will not hurt performance when these tasks are unrelated. We investigate this in the context of Gaussian Process (GP) prediction. We propose a model that attempts to learn inter-task dependencies based solely on the task identities and the observed data for each task. This contrasts with approaches in [3, 4] where task-descriptor features t were used in a parametric covariance function over different tasks?such a function may be too constrained by both its parametric form and the task descriptors to model task similarities effectively. In addition, for many real-life scenarios task-descriptor features are either unavailable or difficult to define correctly. Hence we propose a model that learns a ?free-form? task-similarity matrix, which is used in conjunction with a parameterized covariance function over the input features x. For scenarios where the number of input observations is small, multi-task learning augments the data set with a number of different tasks, so that model parameters can be estimated more confidently; this helps to minimize over-fitting. In our model, this is achieved by having a common covariance function over the features x of the input observations. This contrasts with the semiparametric latent factor model [5] where, with the same set of input observations, one has to estimate the parameters of several covariance functions belonging to different latent processes. For our model we can show the interesting theoretical property that there is a cancellation of intertask transfer in the specific case of noise-free observations and a block design. We have investigated both gradient-based and EM-based optimization of the marginal likelihood for learning the hyperparameters of the GP. Finally, we make use of GP approximations and properties of our model in order to scale our approach to large multi-task data sets, and evaluate the benefits of our model on two practical multi-task applications: a compiler performance prediction problem and a exam score prediction task. The structure of the paper is as follows: in section 2 we outline our model for multi-task learning, and discuss some approximations to speed up computations in section 3. Related work is described in section 4. We describe our experimental setup in section 5 and give results in section 6. 2 The Model Given a set X of N distinct inputs x1 , . . . , xN we define the complete set of responses for M tasks as y = (y11 , . . . , yN 1 , . . . , y12 , . . . , yN 2 , . . . , y1M , . . . , yN M )T , where yil is the response for the lth task on the ith input xi . Let us also denote the N ? M matrix Y such that y = vec Y . Given a set of observations yo , which is a subset of y, we want to predict some of the unobserved response-values yu at some input locations for certain tasks. We approach this problem by placing a GP prior over the latent functions {fl } so that we directly induce correlations between tasks. Assuming that the GPs have zero mean we set f x hfl (x)fk (x0 )i = Klk k (x, x0 ) yil ? N (fl (xi ), ?l2 ), (1) where K f is a positive semi-definite (PSD) matrix that specifies the inter-task similarities, k x is a covariance function over inputs, and ?l2 is the noise variance for the lth task. Below we focus on stationary covariance functions k x ; hence, to avoid redundancy in the parametrization, we further let k x be only a correlation function (i.e. it is constrained to have unit variance), since the variance can be explained fully by K f . The important property of this model is that the joint Gaussian distribution over y is not blockdiagonal wrt tasks, so that observations of one task can affect the predictions on another task. In [4, 3] this property also holds, but instead of specifying a general PSD matrix K f , these authors set f Klk = k f (tl , tk ), where k f (?, ?) is a covariance function over the task-descriptor features t. One popular setup for multi-task learning is to assume that tasks can be clustered, and that there are inter-task correlations between tasks in the same cluster. This can be easily modelled with a general task-similarity K f matrix: if we assume that the tasks are ordered with respect to the clusters, then K f will have a block diagonal structure. Of course, as we are learning a ?free form? K f the ordering of the tasks is irrelevant in practice (and is only useful for explanatory purposes). 2.1 Inference Inference in our model can be done by using the standard GP formulae for the mean and variance of the predictive distribution with the covariance function given in equation (1). For example, the mean prediction on a new data-point x? for task l is given by f?l (x? ) = (kfl ? kx? )T ??1 y ? = Kf ? Kx + D ? I (2) where ? denotes the Kronecker product, kfl selects the lth column of K f , kx? is the vector of covariances between the test point x? and the training points, K x is the matrix of covariances between all pairs of training points, D is an M ? M diagonal matrix in which the (l, l)th element is ?l2 , and ? is an M N ? M N matrix. In section 2.3 we show that when there is no noise in the data (i.e. D = 0), there will be no transfer between tasks. 2.2 Learning Hyperparameters Given the set of observations yo , we wish to learn the parameters ? x of k x and the matrix K f to maximize the marginal likelihood p(yo |X, ? x , K f ). One way to achieve this is to use the fact that y|X ? N (0, ?). Therefore, gradient-based methods can be readily applied to maximize the marginal likelihood. In order to guarantee positive-semidefiniteness of K f , one possible parametrization is to use the Cholesky decomposition K f = LLT where L is lower triangular. Computing the derivatives of the marginal likelihood with respect to L and ? x is straightforward. A drawback of this approach is its computational cost as it requires the inversion of a matrix of potential size M N ? M N (or solving an M N ? M N linear system) at each optimization step. Note, however, that one only needs to actually compute the Gram matrix and its inverse at the visible locations corresponding to yo . Alternatively, it is possible to exploit the Kronecker product structure of the full covariance matrix as in [6], where an EM algorithm is proposed such that learning of ? x and K f in the M-step is decoupled. This has the advantage that closed-form updates for K f and D can be obtained (see equation (5)), and that K f is guaranteed to be positive-semidefinite. The details of the EM algorithm are as follows: Let f be the vector of function values corresponding to y, and similarly for F wrt Y . Further, let y?l denote the vector (y1l , . . . , yN l )T and similarly for f ?l . Given the missing data, which in this case is f , the complete-data log-likelihood is i ?1 T N M 1 h ?1 Lcomp = ? log |K f | ? log |K x | ? tr K f F (K x ) F 2 2 2 M X  MN 1  N log 2? (3) log ?l2 ? tr (Y ? F )D?1 (Y ? F )T ? ? 2 2 2 l=1 from which we have following updates: D  E  bx = arg min N log F T (K x (? x ))?1 F + M log |K x (? x )| ? ?x   ?1  D E T cx ) b f = N ?1 F T K x (? K F ? bl2 = N ?1 (y?l ? f ?l ) (y?l ? f ?l ) (4) (5)  where the expectations h?i are taken with respect to p f |yo , ? x , K f , and b? denotes the updated parameters. For Then  clarity, let us consider the case where yo = y, i.e. a block design.  p f |y, ? x , K f = N (K f ? K x )??1 y, (K f ? K x ) ? (K f ? K x )??1 (K f ? K x ) . We have seen that ? needs to be inverted (in time O(M 3 N 3 )) for both making predictions and learning the hyperparameters (when considering noisy observations). This can lead to computational problems if M N is large. In section 3 we give some approximations that can help speed up these computations. 2.3 Noiseless observations and the cancellation of inter-task transfer One particularly interesting case to consider is noise-free observations at the same locations for all tasks (i.e. a block-design) so that y|X ? Normal(0, K f ? K x ). In this case maximizing the marginal likelihood p(y|X) wrt the parameters ? x of k x reduces to maximizing ?M log |K x | ? N log |Y T (K x )?1 Y |, an expression that does not depend on K f . After convergence we can obtain ? f = 1 Y T (K x )?1 Y . The intuition behind is this: The responses Y are correlated via K f K f as K N x and K . We can learn K f by decorrelating Y with (K x )?1 first so that only correlation with respect to K f is left. Then K f is simply the sample covariance of the de-correlated Y . Unfortunately, in this case there is effectively no transfer between the tasks (given the kernels). To see this, consider making predictions at a new location x? for all tasks. We have (using the mixedproduct property of Kronecker products) that T ?1 f (x? ) = K f ? kx? Kf ? Kx y (6)   f T x T f ?1 x ?1 = (K ) ? (k? ) (K ) ? (K ) y (7)  f f ?1   x T x ?1 = K (K ) ? (k? ) (K ) y (8) ? ? x T x ?1 (k? ) (K ) y?1 ? ? .. (9) =? ?, . (kx? )T (K x )?1 y?M and similarly for the covariances. Thus, in the noiseless case with a block design, the predictions for task l depend only on the targets y?l . In other words, there is a cancellation of transfer. One can in fact generalize this result to show that the cancellation of transfer for task l does still hold even if the observations are only sparsely observed at locations X = (x1 , . . . , xN ) on the other tasks. After having derived this result we learned that it is known as autokrigeability in the geostatistics literature [7], and is also related to the symmetric Markov property of covariance functions that is discussed in [8]. We emphasize that if the observations are noisy, or if there is not a block design, then this result on cancellation of transfer will not hold. This result can also be generalized to multidimensional tensor product covariance functions and grids [9]. 3 Approximations to speed up computations The issue of dealing with large N has been much studied in the GP literature, see [10, ch. 8] and [11] for overviews. In particular, one can use sparse approximations where only Q out of N data points are selected as inducing inputs[11]. Here, we use the Nystr?om approximation of K x in the def x x ?1 x ex = marginal likelihood, so that K x ? K K?I (KII ) KI? , where I indexes Q rows/columns of x K . In fact for the posterior at the training points this result is obtained from both the subset of regressors (SoR) and projected process (PP) approximations described in [10, ch. 8]. Specifying a full rank K f requires M (M + 1)/2 parameters, and for large M this would be a lot of parameters to estimate. One parametrization of K f that reduces this problem is to use a PPCA model def ef = [12] K f ? K U ?U T + s2 IM , where U is an M ? P matrix of the P principal eigenvectors f of K , ? is a P ? P diagonal matrix of the corresponding eigenvalues, and s2 can be determined analytically from the eigenvalues of K f (see [12] and references therein). For numerical stability, ?L ? T , where L ? is a we may further use the incomplete-Cholesky decomposition setting U ?U T = L M ? P matrix. Below we consider the case s = 0, i.e. a rank-P approximation to K f . def e = ?f ? K ? x + D ? IN , we have, after using the Applying both approximations to get ? ? ? K   def ?? e ?1 = ??1 ? ??1 B I ? K x + B T ??1 B ?1 B T ??1 where B = (L Woodbury identity, ? II def x ?f ?K ? x has rank P Q, we have that computation ), and ? = D ? IN is a diagonal matrix. As K K?I ?1 2 2 ? of ? y takes O(M N P Q ). e x poses a problem in (4) because for the rank-deficient For the EM algorithm, the approximation of K x e matrix K , its log-determinant is negative infinity, and its matrix inverse is undefined. We overcome e x = lim??0 (K x (K x )?1 K x +? 2 I), so that we solve an equivalent optimizathis by considering K I? II ?I x x x |, | ? log |KII K?I tion problem where the log-determinant is replaced by the well-defined log |KI? and the matrix inverse is replaced by the pseudo-inverse. With these approximations the computational complexity of hyperparameter learning can be reduced to O(M N P 2 Q2 ) per iteration for both the Cholesky and EM methods. 4 Related work There has been a lot of work in recent years on multi-task learning (or inductive transfer) using methods such as Neural Networks, Gaussian Processes, Dirichlet Processes and Support Vector Machines, see e.g. [2, 13] for early references. The key issue concerns what properties or aspects should be shared across tasks. Within the GP literature, [14, 15, 16, 17, 18] give models where the covariance matrix of the full (noiseless) system is block diagonal, and each of the M blocks is induced from the same kernel function. Under these models each y?i is conditionally independent, but inter-task tying takes place by sharing the kernel function across tasks. In contrast, in our model and in [5, 3, 4] the covariance is not block diagonal. The semiparametric latent factor model (SLFM) of Teh et al [5] involves having P latent processes (where P ? M ) and each of these latent processes has its own covariance function. The noiseless outputs are obtained by linear mixing of these processes with a M ? P matrix ?. The covariance matrix of the system under this model has rank at most P N , so that when P < M the system corresponds to a degenerate GP. Our model is similar to [5] but simpler, in that all of the P latent processes share the same covariance function; this reduces the number of free parameters to be fitted and should help to minimize overfitting. With a common covariance function k x , it turns out that K f is equal to ??T , so a K f that is strictly positive definite corresponds to using P = M latent processes. Note that if P > M one can always find an M ? M matrix ?0 such that ?0 ?0T = ??T . We note also that the approximation methods used in [5] are different to ours, and were based on the subset of data (SoD) method using the informative vector machine (IVM) selection heuristic. In the geostatistics literature, the prior model for f? given in eq. (1) is known as the intrinsic correlation model [7], a specific case of co-kriging. A sum of such processes is known as the linear coregionalization model (LCM) [7] for which [6] gives an EM-based algorithm for parameter estimation. Our model for the observations corresponds to an LCM model with two processes: the process for f? and the noise process. Note that SLFM can also be seen as an instance of the LCM model. To see this, let Epp be a P ? P diagonal matrix with 1 at (p, p) and zero elsewhere. Then we PP PP can write the covariance in SLFM as (??I)( p=1 Epp ?Kpx )(??I)T = p=1 (?Epp ?T )?Kpx , where ?Epp ?T is of rank 1. Evgeniou et al. [19] consider methods for inducing correlations between tasks based on a correlated prior over linear regression parameters. In fact this corresponds to a GP prior using the kernel k(x, x0 ) = xT Ax0 for some positive definite matrix A. In their experiments they use a restricted f form of K f with Klk = (1 ? ?) + ?M ?lk (their eq. 25), i.e. a convex combination of a rank-1 matrix of ones and a multiple of the identity. Notice the similarity to the PPCA form of K f given in section 3. 5 Experiments We evaluate our model on two different applications. The first application is a compiler performance prediction problem where the goal is to predict the speed-up obtained in a given program (task) when applying a sequence of code transformations x. The second application is an exam score prediction problem where the goal is to predict the exam score obtained by a student x belonging to a specific school (task). In the sequel, we will refer to the data related to the first problem as the compiler data and the data related to the second problem as the school data. We are interested in assessing the benefits of our approach not only with respect to the no-transfer case but also with respect to the case when a parametric GP is used on the joint input-dependent and task-dependent space as in [3]. To train the parametric model note that the parameters of the covariance function over task descriptors k f (t, t0 ) can be tuned by maximizing the marginal likelihood, as in [3]. For the free-form K f we initialize this (given k x (?, ?)) by using the noise-free expression ? f = 1 Y T (K x )?1 Y given in section 2.3 (or the appropriate generalization when the design is K N not complete). For both applications we have used a squared-exponential (or Gaussian) covariance function k x and a non-parametric form for K f . Where relevant the parametric covariance function k f was also taken to be of squared-exponential form. Both k x and k f used an automatic relevance determination (ARD) parameterization, i.e. having a length scale for each feature dimension. All the length scales in k x and k f were initialized to 1, and all ?l2 were constrained to be equal for all tasks and initialized to 0.01. 5.1 Description of the Data Compiler Data. This data set consists of 11 C programs for which an exhaustive set of 88214 sequences of code transformations have been applied and their corresponding speed-ups have been recorded. Each task is to predict the speed-up on a given program when applying a specific transformation sequence. The speed-up after applying a transformation sequence on a given program is defined as the ratio of the execution time of the original program (baseline) over the execution time of the transformed program. Each transformation sequence is described as a 13-dimensional vector x that records the absence/presence of one-out-of 13 single transformations. In [3] the taskdescriptor features (for each program) are based on the speed-ups obtained on a pre-selected set of 8 transformations sequences, so-called ?canonical responses?. The reader is referred to [3, section 3] for a more detailed description of the data. School Data. This data set comes from the Inner London Education Authority (ILEA) and has been used to study the effectiveness of schools. It is publicly available under the name of ?school effectiveness? at http://www.cmm.bristol.ac.uk/learning-training/ multilevel-m-support/datasets.shtml. It consists of examination records from 139 secondary schools in years 1985, 1986 and 1987. It is a random 50% sample with 15362 students. This data has also been used in the context of multi-task learning by Bakker and Heskes [20] and Evgeniou et al. [19]. In [20] each task is defined as the prediction of the exam score of a student belonging to a specific school based on four student-dependent features (year of the exam, gender, VR band and ethnic group) and four school-dependent features (percentage of students eligible for free school meals, percentage of students in VR band 1, school gender and school denomination). For comparison with [20, 19] we evaluate our model following the set up described above and similarly, we have created dummy variables for those features that are categorical forming a total of 19 student-dependent features and 8 school-dependent features. However, we note that school-descriptor features such as the percentage of students eligible for free school meals and the percentage of students in VR band 1 actually depend on the year the particular sample was taken. It is important to emphasize that for both data sets there are task-descriptor features available. However, as we have described throughout this paper, our approach learns task similarity directly without the need for task-dependent features. Hence, we have neglected these features in the application of our free-form K f method. 6 Results For the compiler data we have M = 11 tasks and we have used a Cholesky decomposition K f = LLT . For the school data we have M = 139 tasks and we have preferred a reduced rank ef = L ?L ? T , with ranks 1, 2, 3 and 5. We have learnt the parameparameterization of K f ? K ters of the models so as to maximize the marginal likelihood p(yo |X, K f , ? x ) using gradient-based search in MATLAB with Carl Rasmussen?s minimize.m. In our experiments this method usually outperformed EM in the quality of solutions found and in the speed of convergence. Compiler Data: For this particular application, in a real-life scenario it is critical to achieve good performance with a low number of training data-points per task given that a training data-point requires the compilation and execution of a (potentially) different version of a program. Therefore, although there are a total of 88214 training points per program we have followed a similar set up to [3] by considering N = 16, 32, 64 and 128 transformation sequences per program for training. All the M = 11 programs (tasks) have been used for training, and predictions have been done at the (unobserved) remaining 88214 ? N inputs. For comparison with [3] the mean absolute error (between the actual speed-ups of a program and the predictions) has been used as the measure of performance. Due to the variability of the results depending on training set selection we have considered 10 different replications. Figure 1 shows the mean absolute errors obtained on the compiler data for some of the tasks (top row and bottom left) and on average for all the tasks (bottom right). Sample task 1 (histogram) is an example where learning the tasks simultaneously brings major benefits over the no transfer case. Here, multi-task GP (transfer free-form) provides a reduction on the mean absolute error of up to 6 times. Additionally, it is consistently (although only marginally) superior to the parametric approach. For sample task 2 (fir), our approach not only significantly outperforms the no transfer case but also provides greater benefits over the parametric method (which for N = 64 and 128 is worse than no transfer). Sample task 3 (adpcm) is the only case out of all 11 tasks where our approach degrades performance, although it should be noted that all the methods perform similarly. Further analysis of the data indicates that learning on this task is hard as there is a lot of variability that cannot be explained by the 1-out-of-13 encoding used for the input features. Finally, for all tasks on average (bottom right) our approach brings significant improvements over single task learning and consistently outperforms the parametric method. For all tasks except one our model provides better or roughly equal performance than the non-transfer case and the parametric model. School Data: For comparison with [20, 19] we have made 10 random splits of the data into training (75%) data and test (25%) data. Due to the categorical nature of the data there are a maximum of N = 202 different student-dependent feature vectors x. Given that there can be multiple observations of a target value for a given task at a specific input x, we have taken the mean of these observations and corrected the noise variances by dividing them over the corresponding number of observations. As in [19], the percentage explained variance is used as the measure of performance. This measure can be seen as the percentage version of the well known coefficient of determination r2 between the actual target values and the predictions. SAMPLE TASK 1 SAMPLE TASK 2 0.2 0.35 NO TRANSFER TRANSFER PARAMETRIC TRANSFER FREE?FORM 0.16 NO TRANSFER TRANSFER PARAMETRIC TRANSFER FREE?FORM 0.3 MAE MAE 0.25 0.12 0.08 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.04 0.05 0 16 32 64 0 128 16 64 N SAMPLE TASK 3 ALL TASKS (a) 128 (b) 0.12 0.14 0.1 0.12 NO TRANSFER TRANSFER PARAMETRIC TRANSFER FREE?FORM 0.1 MAE 0.08 MAE 32 N 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.04 NO TRANSFER TRANSFER PARAMETRIC TRANSFER FREE?FORM 0.02 0 16 32 64 128 0.02 0 16 32 N 64 128 N (c) (d) Figure 1: Panels (a), (b) and (c) show the average mean absolute error on the compiler data as a function of the number of training points for specific tasks. no transfer stands for the use of a single GP for each task separately; transfer parametric is the use of a GP with a joint parametric (SE) covariance function as in [3]; and transfer free-form is multi-task GP with a ?free form? covariance matrix over tasks. The error bars show ? one standard deviation taken over the 10 replications. Panel (d) shows the average MAE over all 11 tasks, and the error bars show the average of the standard deviations over all 11 tasks. The results are shown in Table 1; note that larger figures are better. The parametric result given in the table was obtained from the school-descriptor features; in the cases where these features varied for a given school over the years, an average was taken. The results show that better results can be obtained by using multi-task learning than without. For the non-parametric K f , we see that the rank-2 model gives best performance. This performance is also comparable with the best (29.5%) found in [20]. We also note that our no transfer result of 21.1% is much better than the baseline of 9.7% found in [20] using neural networks. no transfer parametric rank 1 rank 2 rank 3 rank 5 21.05 (1.15) 31.57 (1.61) 27.02 (2.03) 29.20 (1.60) 24.88 (1.62) 21.00 (2.42) Table 1: Percentage variance explained on the school dataset for various situations. The figures in brackets are standard deviations obtained from the ten replications. On the school data the parametric approach for K f slightly outperforms the non-parametric method, probably due to the large size of this matrix relative to the amount of data. One can also run the parametric approach creating a task for every unique school-features descriptor1 ; this gives rise to 288 tasks rather than 139 schools, and a performance of 33.08% (?1.57). Evgeniou et al [19] use a linear predictor on all 8 features (i.e. they combine both student and school features into x) and then introduce inter-task correlations as described in section 4. This approach uses the same information as our 288 task case, and gives similar performance of around 34% (as shown in Figure 3 of [19]). 1 Recall from section 5.1 that the school features can vary over different years. 7 Conclusion In this paper we have described a method for multi-task learning based on a GP prior which has inter-task correlations specified by the task similarity matrix K f . We have shown that in a noisefree block design, there is actually a cancellation of transfer in this model, but not in general. We have successfully applied the method to the compiler and school problems. An advantage of our method is that task-descriptor features are not required (c.f. [3, 4]). However, such features might be beneficial if we consider a setup where there are only few datapoints for a new task, and where the task-descriptor features convey useful information about the tasks. Acknowledgments CW thanks Dan Cornford for pointing out the prior work on autokrigeability. KMC thanks DSO NL for support. This work is supported under EPSRC grant GR/S71118/01 , EU FP6 STREP MILEPOST IST-035307, and in part by the IST Programme of the European Community, under the PASCAL Network of Excellence, IST2002-506778. This publication only reflects the authors? views. References [1] Jonathan Baxter. A Model of Inductive Bias Learning. JAIR, 12:149?198, March 2000. [2] Rich Caruana. Multitask Learning. Machine Learning, 28(1):41?75, July 1997. [3] Edwin V. Bonilla, Felix V. Agakov, and Christopher K. I. Williams. Kernel Multi-task Learning using Task-specific Features. In Proceedings of the 11th AISTATS, March 2007. [4] Kai Yu, Wei Chu, Shipeng Yu, Volker Tresp, and Zhao Xu. Stochastic Relational Models for Discriminative Link Prediction. In NIPS 19, Cambridge, MA, 2007. MIT Press. [5] Yee Whye Teh, Matthias Seeger, and Michael I. Jordan. Semiparametric latent factor models. In Proceedings of the 10th AISTATS, pages 333?340, January 2005. [6] Hao Zhang. Maximum-likelihood estimation for multivariate spatial linear coregionalization models. Environmetrics, 18(2):125?139, 2007. [7] Hans Wackernagel. Multivariate Geostatistics: An Introduction with Applications. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2nd edition, 1998. [8] A. O?Hagan. A Markov property for covariance structures. Statistics Research Report 98-13, Nottingham University, 1998. [9] C. K. I. Williams, K. M. A. Chai, and E. V. Bonilla. A note on noise-free Gaussian process prediction with separable covariance functions and grid designs. Technical report, University of Edinburgh, 2007. [10] C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2006. [11] Joaquin Qui?nonero-Candela, Carl Edward Rasmussen, and Christopher K. I. Williams. Approximation Methods for Gaussian Process Regression. In Large Scale Kernel Machines. MIT Press, 2007. To appear. [12] Michael E. Tipping and Christopher M. Bishop. Probabilistic principal component analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 61(3):611?622, 1999. [13] S. Thrun. Is Learning the n-th Thing Any Easier Than Learning the First? In NIPS 8, 1996. [14] Thomas P. Minka and Rosalind W. Picard. Learning How to Learn is Learning with Point Sets. 1999. [15] Neil D. Lawrence and John C. Platt. Learning to learn with the Informative Vector Machine. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning, July 2004. [16] Kai Yu, Volker Tresp, and Anton Schwaighofer. Learning Gaussian Processes from Multiple Tasks. In Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2005. [17] Anton Schwaighofer, Volker Tresp, and Kai Yu. Learning Gaussian Process Kernels via Hierarchical Bayes. In NIPS 17, Cambridge, MA, 2005. MIT Press. [18] Shipeng Yu, Kai Yu, Volker Tresp, and Hans-Peter Kriegel. Collaborative Ordinal Regression. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, June 2006. [19] Theodoros Evgeniou, Charles A. Micchelli, and Massimiliano Pontil. Learning Multiple Tasks with Kernel Methods. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:615?537, April 2005. [20] Bart Bakker and Tom Heskes. Task Clustering and Gating for Bayesian Multitask Learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:83?99, May 2003.
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Dynamics of Learning in Recurrent Feature-Discovery Networks Todd K. Leen Department of Computer Science and Engineering Oregon Graduate Institute of Science & Technology Beaverton, OR 97006-1999 Abstract The self-organization of recurrent feature-discovery networks is studied from the perspective of dynamical systems. Bifurcation theory reveals parameter regimes in which multiple equilibria or limit cycles coexist with the equilibrium at which the networks perform principal component analysis. 1 Introduction Oja (1982) made the remarkable observation that a simple model neuron with an Hebbian adaptation rule develops into a filter for the first principal component of the input distribution. Several researchers have extended Oja's work, developing networks that perform a complete principal component analysis (PCA). Sanger (1989) proposed an algorithm that uses a single layer of weights with a set of cascaded feedback projections to force nodes to filter for the principal components. This architecture singles out a particular node for each principal component. Oja (1989) and Oja and Karhunen (1985) give a related algorithm that projects inputs onto an orthogonal basis spanning the principal subspace, but does not necessarily filter for the principal components themselves. In another class of models, nodes are forced to learn different statistical features by a set of lateral connections. Rubner and Schulten (1990) use cascaded lateral connections; the ith node receives signals from the input and all nodes j with j < i. The lateral connections are modified by an anti-Hebbian learning rule that tends to de-correlate the node responses . Like Sanger's scheme, this architecture singles out a particular node for each principal component. Kung and Diamantaras (1990) propose a different learning rule on the same network topology. Foldiak (1989) simulates a network with full lateral connectivity, but does not discuss convergence. Dynamics of Learning in Recurrent &ature-Discovery Networks 71 The goal of this paper is to help form a more complete picture of feature-discovery models that use lateral signal flow. We discuss two models with particular emphasis on their learning dynamics. The models incorporate Hebbian and anti-Hebbian adaptation, and recurrent lateral connections. We give stability analyses and derive bifurcation diagrams for the models. Stability analysis gives a lower bound on the rate of adaptation the lateral connections, below which the equilibrium corresponding to peA is unstable. Bifurcation theory provides a description of the behavior near loss of stability. The bifurcation analyses reveal stable equilibria in which the weight vectors from the input are combinations of the eigenvectors of the input correlation. Limit cycles are also found. 2 The Single-Neuron Model In Oja's model the input, x E R N , is a random vector assumed to be drawn from a stationary probability distribution. The vector of synaptic weights is denoted w and the post-synaptic response is linear; y x . w. The continuous-time, ensemble averaged form of the learning rule is = w < xy > - < y2 > w Rw - (w. Rw) w (1) = where < ... > denotes the average over the ensemble of inputs, and R < X xT > is the correlation matrix. The unit-magnitude eigenvectors of R are denoted ei, i 1 ... N and are assumed to be ordered in decreasing magnitude of the associated eigenvalues Al > A2 > ... > AN > O. Oja shows that the weight vector asymptotically approaches ?el' The variance of the node's response is thus maximized and the node acts as a filter for the first principal component of the input distribution. = 3 Extending the Single Neuron Model To extend the model to a system of M ::5 N nodes we consider a set of linear neurons with weight vectors (called the forward weights) Wl ?? . WM connecting each to 'the--- __ N -dimensional input. Without interactions between the nodes in the array, all M weight vectors would converge to ?el. We consider two approaches to building interactions that force nodes to filter for different statistical features. In the first approach an internode potential is constructed. This formulation results in a non-local model. The model is made local by introducing lateral connections that naturally acquire anti-Hebbian a.daptation. For reasons that will become clear, the resulting model is referred to as a minimal coupling scheme. In the second approach, we write equations of motion of the forward weights based directly on (1). The evolution of the lateral connection strengths will follow a simple anti-Hebbian rule. 3.1 Minimal Coupling The response of the ith node in the array is taken to be linear in the input (2) ~ 72 Leen The adaptation of the forward weights is derived from the potential ~ 1 U + 2" i L.J i,k;i?k 1 M ~ -2 ~ C 2 2 L.J < Yi > C + (Wj . RWj) M 2: 2 (3) (Wj' R W k)2, j,k;j?k J where C is a coupling constant. The first term of U generates the Hebb law, while the second term penalizes correlated node activity (Yuille et al. 1989). The equations of motion are constructed to perform gradient descent on U with a term added to bound the weight vectors, 2 < -V"w. U Yi > Wi M c 2: < x Yi > - < Yi Yj > < x Yj > - < yi > Wi j?i M RWi C - L: (Wi' RWj) RWj - (Wi' Rwd Wi. (4) j ?i Note that Wi refers to the weight vector from the input to the component of the weight vector. ith node, not the ith Equation (4) is non-local as it involves correlations, < Yi Yj >, between nodes. In order to provide a purely local adaptation, we introduce a symmetric matrix of lateral connections 1Jij i, j 1, ... , M = = O. 1Jii These evolve according to -d (1Jij + C < Yi Yj > ) -d (1Jij + C Wi . RWj ) where d is a rate constant. In the limit of fast adaptation (large d) 1Jij (5) -C < Yi Yj > . With this limiting behavior in mind, we replace (4) with 1Jij --+ M < XVi > + L: 1Jij < XYj > - < Yi2 > Wi j?i M RWi + L: 1Jij RWj - (Wi' RWi) Wi? (6) j?i Equations (5) and (6) specify the adaptation of the network. Notice that the response of the ith node is given by (2) and is thus independent of the signals carried on the lateral connections. In this sense the lateral signals affect node plasticity but not node response. This minimal coupling can also be derived as a low-order approximation to the model in ?3.2 below. Dynamics of Learning in Recurrent &ature-Discovery Networks 3.1.1 Stability and Bifurcation By inspection the weight dynamics given by (5) and (6) have an equilibrium at (7) At this equilibrium the outputs are the first M principal components of input vectors. In suitable coordinates the linear part of the equations of motion break into block diagonal form with any possible instabilities constrained to 3 x 3 sub-blocks. Details of the stability and bifurcation analysis are given in Leen (1991). The principal component subspace is always asymptotically stable. However the equilibrium Xo is linearly stable if and only if d > do C > Co - (Ai - Aj)2 (Ai + Aj) A~I + A? J 1 1 ;:; (i,j) ;:; M. Ai + Aj , (8) (9) At Co or do there is a qualitative change (a bifurcation) in the learning dynamics. If the condition on d is violated, then there is a Hopf bifurcation to oscillating weights. At the critical value Co there is a bifurcation to multiple equilibria. The bifurcation normal form was found by Liapunov-Schmidt reduction (see e.g. Golubitsky and Schaeffer 1984) performed at the bifurcation point (Xo, Co). To deal effectively with the large dimensional phase space of the network, the calculations were performed on a symbolic algebra program. At the critical point (Xo, Co) there is a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. Two unstable equilibria appear near Xo for C > Co. At these equilibria the forward weights are mixtures of eM and eM -1 and the lateral connection strengths are non-zero. Generically one expects a saddle-node bifurcation. However Xo is an equilibrium for all values of C, and the system has an inversion symmetry. These conditions preclude the saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations, and we are left with the pitchfork. The position of stable equilibria away from (Xo, Co) can be found by examining terms of order five and higher in the bifurcation expansion. Alternatively we examine the bifurcation from the homogeneous solution, Xh, in which all weight vectors are proportional to el. For a system of two nodes this equilibrium is asymptotically stable provided (10) If Al < 3A2' then there is a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation at Ch. Two stable equilibria emerge from Xh for C > Ch. At these stable equilibria, the forward weight vectors are mixtures of the first two correlation eigenvectors and the lateral connection strengths are nonzero. The complete bifurcation diagram for a system of two nodes is shown in Fig . 1. The upper portion of the figure shows the bifurcation at (Xo, Co). The horizontal line corresponds to the peA equilibrium Xo. This equilibrium is stable (heavy line) for 73 74 Leen C > Co, and unstable (light line) for C < Co. The subsidiary, unstable, equilibria that emerge from (Xo, Co) lie on the light, parabolic branches of the top diagram. Calculations indicate that the form of this bifurcation is independent of the number of nodes, and of the input dimension. Of course the value of Co increases with increasing number of nodes, c.f. (9). The lower portion of Fig. 1 shows the bifurcation from (Xh' Ch) for a system of two nodes. The horizontal line corresponds to the homogeneous equilibrium X h. This is stable for C < Ch and unstable for C > Ch. The stable equilibria consisting of mixtures of the correlation eigenvectors lie on the heavy parabolic branches of the diagram. For networks with more nodes, there are presumably further bifurcations along the supercritical stable branches emerging from (Xh' Ch); equilibria with qualitatively different eigenvector mixtures are observed in simulations. Each inset in the figure shows equilibrium forward weight vectors for both nodes in a two-node network. These configurations were generated by numerical integration of the equations of motion (5) and (6). The correlation matrix corresponds to an ensemble of noise vectors with short-range correlations between the components. Simulations of the corresponding discrete, pattern-by-pattern learning rule confirm the form of the weight vectors shown here. ~2 3.0 lr t O.S . 2 4 6 8 10 AI Figure 1: Bifurcation diagram for the minimal model 3.2 Fig 2: Regions in the (>'1, >'2) plane corresponding to supercritical (shaded) and subcritical (unshaded) Hopf bifurcation. Full Coupling In a more conventional coupling scheme, the signals carried on the lateral connections affect the node activities directly. For linear node response, the vector of activities is given by (11) where y E RM, TJ is the !l1 x !If matrix of lateral connection st.rengths and w is an M x N matrix whose ith row is the forward weight vector to the ith node. The adaptation rule is w < yx T D TJ - > _ Diag? yyT C < yyT >, TJii ?w = 0, (12) (13) Dynamics of Learning in Recurrent Feature-Discovery Networks where D and C are constants and Diag sets the off-diagonal elements of its argument equal to zero. This system also has the peA equilibrium Xo. This is linearly stable if D > 0 C > Co (14) D (15) Equation (14) tells us that the peA equilibrium is structurally unstable without the D'TJ term in (13). Without this term, the model reduces to that given by Foldiak (1989). That the latter generally does not converge to the peA equilibrium is consistent with the condition in (14). If, on the other hand, the condition on C is violated then the network undergoes a Hopf bifurcation leading to oscillations. Depending on the eigenvalue spectrum of the input correlation, this bifurcation may be subcritical (with stable limit cycles near Xo for C < Co), or supercritical (with unstable limit cycles near Xo for C > Co). Figure 2 shows the corresponding regions in the (.AI, .A2) plane for a 1. Simulations show that even in the supercritical network of two nodes with D regime, stable limit cycles are found for C < Co, and for C > Co sufficiently close to Co. This suggests that the complete bifurcation diagram in the supercritical regime is shaped like the bottom of a wine bottle, with only the indentation shown in figure 2. Under the approximation u ~ 1 + 'TJ, the super-critical regime is significantly narrowed. = 4 Discussion The primary goal of this study has been to give a theoretical description of learning in feature-discovery models; in particular models that use lateral interactions to ensure that nodes tune to different statistical features. The models presented here have several different limit sets (equilibria and cycles) whose stability and location in the weight space depends on the relative learning rates in the network, and on the eigenvalue spectrum of the input correlation. We have applied t.ools from bifurcation theory to qualitatively describe the location and determine stability of these different limiting solutions. This theoretical approach provides a unifying framework within which similar algorithms can be studied. Both models have equilibria at which the network performs peA. In addition, the minimal model has stable equilibria for which the forward weight vectors are mixtures of the correlation eigenvectors. Both models have regimes in which the weight vectors oscillate. The model given by Rubner et al. (1990) also loses stability through Hopf bifurcation for small values of the lateral learning rate. The minimal values of C in (9) and (15) for the stability of the peA equilibrium can become quite large for small correlation eigenvalues. These stringent conditions can be ameliorated in both models by the replacement d 'TJij -+ ? Y; > + < YJ > ) 'TJij. However in the minimal model, this leads to degenerate bifurcations which have not been thoroughly examined. 75 76 Leen Finally, it remains to be seen whether the techniques employed here extend to similar systems with non-linear node activation (e.g. Carlson 1991) or to the problem of locating multiple minima in cost functions for supervised learning models. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research under contract N0001490-1349 and by DARPA grant MDA 972-88-J-1004 to the Department of Computer Science and Engineering. The author thanks Bill Baird for stimulating e-mail disCUSSlon. References Carlson, A. (1991) Anti-Hebbian learning in a non-linear neural network Bioi. Cybern., 64:171-176. Foldiak, P. (1989) Adaptive network for optimal linear feature extraction. In Proceedings of the JJCNN, pages I 401-405. Golubitsky, Martin and Schaeffer, David (1984) Singularities and Groups in Bifurcation Theory, Vol. I. Springer-Verlag, New York. 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Touretzky, editor, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1. Morgan Kauffmann. Yuille, A.L, Kammen, D.M. and Cohen, D.S. (1989) Quadrature and the development of orientation selective cortical cells by Hebb rules. Bioi. Cybern., 61:183-194.
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Evaluating Search Engines by Modeling the Relationship Between Relevance and Clicks Ben Carterette? Center for Intelligent Information Retrieval University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, MA 01003 [email protected] Rosie Jones Yahoo! Research 3333 Empire Ave Burbank, CA 91504 [email protected] Abstract We propose a model that leverages the millions of clicks received by web search engines to predict document relevance. This allows the comparison of ranking functions when clicks are available but complete relevance judgments are not. After an initial training phase using a set of relevance judgments paired with click data, we show that our model can predict the relevance score of documents that have not been judged. These predictions can be used to evaluate the performance of a search engine, using our novel formalization of the confidence of the standard evaluation metric discounted cumulative gain (DCG), so comparisons can be made across time and datasets. This contrasts with previous methods which can provide only pair-wise relevance judgments between results shown for the same query. When no relevance judgments are available, we can identify the better of two ranked lists up to 82% of the time, and with only two relevance judgments for each query, we can identify the better ranking up to 94% of the time. While our experiments are on sponsored search results, which is the financial backbone of web search, our method is general enough to be applicable to algorithmic web search results as well. Furthermore, we give an algorithm to guide the selection of additional documents to judge to improve confidence. 1 Introduction Web search engine evaluation is an expensive process: it requires relevance judgments that indicate the degree of relevance of each document retrieved for each query in a testing set. In addition, reusing old relevance judgements to evaluate an updated ranking function can be problematic, since documents disappear or become obsolete, and the distribution of queries entered changes [15]. Click data from web searchers, used in aggregate, can provide valuable evidence about the relevance of each document. The general problem with using clicks as relevance judgments is that clicks are biased. They are biased to the top of the ranking [12], to trusted sites, to attractive abstracts; they are also biased by the type of query and by other things shown on the results page. To cope with this, we introduce a family of models relating clicks to relevance. By conditioning on clicks, we can predict the relevance of a document or a set of documents. Joachims et al. [12] used eye-tracking devices to track what documents users looked at before clicking. They found that users tend to look at results ranked higher than the one they click on more often than they look at results ranked lower, and this information can in principle be used to train a search engine using these ?preference judgments?[10]. The problem with using preference judgments inferred from clicks for learning is that they will tend to learn to reverse the list. A click at the lowest rank is preferred to everything else, while a click at the highest rank is preferred to nothing ? Work done while author was at Yahoo! 1 else. Radlinski and Joachims [13] suggest an antidote to this: randomly swapping adjacent pairs of documents. This ensures that users will not prefer document i to document i + 1 solely because of rank. However, we may not wish to show a suboptimal document ordering in order acquire data. Our approach instead will be to use discounted cumulative gain (DCG [9]), an evaluation metric commonly used in search engine evaluation. Using click data, we can estimate the confidence that a difference in DCG exists between two rankings without having any relevance judgments for the documents ranked. We will show how a comparison of ranking functions can be performed when clicks are available but complete relevance judgments are not. After an initial training phase with a few relevance judgments, the relevance of unjudged documents can be predicted from clickthrough rates. The confidence in the evaluation can be estimated with the knowledge of which documents are most frequently clicked. Confidence can be dramatically increased with only a few more judiciously chosen relevance judgments. Our contributions are (1) a formalization of the information retrieval metric DCG as a random variable (2) analysis of the sign of the difference between two DCGs as an indication that one ranking is better than another (3) empirical demonstration that combining click-through rates over all results on the page is better at predicting the relevance of the document at position i than just the click-through rate at position i (4) empirically modeling relevance of documents using clicks, and using this model to estimate DCG (5) empirical evaluation of comparison of different rankings using DCG derived from clicks (6) an algorithm for selection of minimal numbers of documents for manual relevance judgement to improve the confidence in DCG over the estimate derived from clicks alone. Section 2 covers previous work on using clickthrough rates and on estimating evaluation metrics. Section 3 describes the evaluation of web retrieval systems using the metric discounted cumulative gain (DCG) and shows how to estimate the confidence that a difference exists when relevance judgments are missing. Our model for predicting relevance from clicks is described in Section 4. We discuss our data in Section 5 and in Section 6 we return to the task of estimating relevance for the evaluation of search engines. Our experiments are conducted in the context of sponsored search, but the methods we use are general enough to translate to general web search engines. 2 Previous Work There has been a great deal of work on low-cost evaluation in TREC-type settings ([20, 6, 16, 5] are a few), but we are aware of little for the web. As discussed above, Joachims [10, 12] and Radlinski and Joachims [13] conducted seminal work on using clicks to infer user preferences between documents. Agichtein et al.[2, 1] used and applied models of user interaction to predict preference relationships and to improve ranking functions. They use many features beyond clickthrough rate, and show that they can learn preference relationships using these features. Our work is superficially similar, but we explicitly model dependencies among clicks for results at different ranks with the purpose of learning probabilistic relevance judgments. These relevance judgments are a stronger result than preference ordering, since preference ordering can be derived from them. In addition, given a strong probabilistic model of relevance from clicks, better combined models can be built. Dupret et al. [7] give a theoretical model for the rank-position effects of click-through rate, and build theoretical models for search engine quality using them. They do not evaluate estimates of document quality, while we empirically compare relevance estimated from clicks to manual relevance judgments. Joachims [11] investigated the use of clickthrough rates for evaluation, showing that relative differences in performance could be measured by interleaving results from two ranking functions, then observing which function produced results that are more frequently clicked. As we will show, interleaving results can change user behavior, and not necessarily in a way that will lead to the user clicking more relevant documents. Soboroff [15] proposed methods for maintaining the relevance judgments in a corpus that is constantly changing. Aslam et al. [3] investigated minimum variance unbiased estimators of system performance, and Carterette et al. [5] introduced the idea of treating an evaluation measure as a random variable with a distribution over all possible relevance judgments. This can be used to create an optimal sampling strategy to obtain judgments, and to estimate the confidence in an evaluation measure. We extend their methods to DCG. 2 3 Evaluating Search Engines Search results are typically evaluated using Discounted Cumulative Gain (DCG) [9]. DCG is defined as the sum of the ?gain? of presenting a particular document times a ?discount? of presenting it P` at a particular rank, up to some maximum rank `: DCG` = i=1 gaini discounti . For web search, ?gain? is typically a relevance score determined from a human labeling, and ?discount? is the reciprocal of the log of the rank, so that putting a document with a high relevance score at a low rank results in a much lower discounted gain than putting the same document at a high rank. DCG` = rel1 + ` X reli log2 i i=2 The constants reli are the relevance scores. Human assessors typically judge documents on an ordinal scale, with labels such as ?Perfect?, ?Excellent?, ?Good?, ?Fair?, and ?Bad?. These are then mapped to a numeric scale for use in DCG computation. We will denote five levels of relevance aj , with a1 > a2 > a3 > a4 > a5 . In this section we will show that we can compare ranking functions without having labeled all the documents. 3.1 Estimating DCG from Incomplete Information DCG requires that the ranked documents have been judged with respect to a query. If the index has recently been updated, or a new algorithm is retrieving new results, we have documents that have not been judged. Rather than ask a human assessor for a judgment, we may be able to infer something about DCG based on the judgments we already have. Let Xi be a random variable representing the relevance of document i. Since relevance is ordinal, the distribution of Xi is multinomial. We will define pij = p(Xi = aj ) for 1 ? j ? 5 with P5 P5 j=1 pij = 1. The expectation of Xi is E[Xi ] = j=1 pij aj , and its variance is V ar[Xi ] = P5 2 2 j=1 pij aj ? E[Xi ] . We can then express DCG as a random variable: DCG` = X1 + ` X Xi log 2i i=2 Its expectation and variance are: E[DCG` ] = E[X1 ] + ` X E[Xi ] i=2 V ar[DCG` ] = V ar[X1 ] + (1) log2 i ` X V ar[Xi ] i=2 (log2 i)2 +2 ` X Cov(X1 , Xi ) i=1 log2 i +2 X Cov(Xi , Xj ) ? E[DCG` ]2 log i ? log j 2 2 1<i<j (2) If the relevance of documents i and j are independent, the covariance Cov(Xi , Xj ) is zero. When some relevance judgments are not available, Eq. (1) and (2) can be used to estimate confidence intervals for DCG. Thus we can compare ranking functions without having judged all the documents. 3.2 Comparative Evaluation If we only care about whether one index or ranking function outperforms another, the actual values of DCG matter less than the sign of their difference. We now turn our attention to estimating the sign of the difference with high confidence. We redefine DCG in terms of an arbitrary indexing of documents, instead of the indexing by rank we used in the previous section. Let rj (i) be the rank at which document i was retrieved by system j. We define the discounted gain gij of document i to the DCG of system j as gij = reli if rj (i) = 1, gij = logrelrji (i) if 1 < rj (i) ? `, and gij = 0 if 2 3 document i was not ranked by system j. Then we can write the difference in DCG for systems 1 and 2 as N X ?DCG` = DCG`1 ? DCG`2 = gi1 ? gi2 (3) i=1 where N is the number of documents in the entire collection. In practice we need only consider those documents returned in the top ` by either of the two systems. We can define a random variable Gij by replacing reli with Xi in gij ; we can then compute the expectation of ?DCG: E[?DCG` ] = N X E[Gi1 ] ? E[Gi2 ] i=1 We can compute its variance as well, which is omitted here due to space constraints. 3.3 Confidence in a Difference in DCG Following Carterette et al. [5], we define the confidence in a difference in DCG as the probability that ?DCG = DCG1 ? DCG2 is less than zero. If P (?DCG < 0) ? 0.95, we say that we have 95% confidence that system 1 is worse than system 2: over all possible judgments that could be made to the unjudged documents, 95% of them will result in ?DCG < 0. To compute this probability, we must consider the distribution of ?DCG. For web search, we are typically most interested in performance in the top 10 retrieved. Ten documents is too few for any convergence results, so instead we will estimate the confidence using Monte Carlo simulation. We simply draw relevance scores for the unjudged documents according to the multinomial distribution p(Xi ) and calculate ?DCG using those scores. After T trials, the probability that ?DCG is less than 0 is simply the number of times ?DCG was computed to be less than 0 divided by T . How can we estimate the distribution p(Xi )? In the absence of any other information, we may assume it to be uniform over all five relevance labels. Relevance labels that have been made in the past provide a useful prior distribution. As we shall see below, clicks are a useful source of information that we can leverage to estimate this distribution. 3.4 Selecting Documents to Judge If confidence estimates are low, we may want to obtain more relevance judgments to improve it. In order to do as little work as necessary, we should select the documents that are likely to tell us a lot about ?DCG and therefore tell us a lot about confidence. The most informative document is the one that would have the greatest effect on ?DCG. Since ?DCG is linear, it is quite easy to determine which document should be judged next. Eq. (3) tells us to simply choose the document i that is unjudged and has maximum |E[Gi1 ] ? E[Gi2 ]|. Algorithm 1 shows how relevance judgments would be acquired iteratively until confidence is sufficiently high. This algorithm is provably optimal in the sense that after k judgments, we know more about the difference in DCG than we would with any other k judgments. Algorithm 1 Iteratively select documents to judge until we have high confidence in ?DCG. 1: while 1 ? ? ? P (?DCG < 0) ? ? do 2: i? ? maxi |E[Gi1 ] ? E[Gi2 ]| for all unjudged documents i 3: judge document i? (human annotator provides reli? ) 4: P (Xi? = reli? ) ? 1 5: P (Xi? 6= reli? ) ? 0 6: estimate P (?DCG) using Monte Carlo simulation 7: end while 4 Modeling Clicks and Relevance Our goal is to model the relationship between clicks and relevance in a way that will allow us to estimate a distribution of relevance p(Xi ) from the clicks on document i and on surrounding 4 documents. We first introduce a joint probability distribution including the query q, the relevance Xi of each document retrieved (where i indicates the rank), and their respective clickthrough rates ci : p(q, X1 , X2 , ..., X` , c1 , c2 , ..., c` ) = P (q, X, c) (4) Boldface X and c indicate vectors of length `. Suppose we have a query for which we have few or no relevance judgments (perhaps because it has only recently begun to appear in the logs, or because it reflects a trend for which new documents are rapidly being indexed). We can nevertheless obtain click-through data. We are therefore interested in the conditional probability p(X|q, c). Note that X = {X1 , X2 , ? ? ? } is a vector of discrete ordinal variables; doing inference in this model is not easy. To simplify, we make the assumption that the relevance of document i and document j are conditionally independent given the query and the clickthrough rates: p(X|q, c) = ` Y p(Xi |q, c) (5) i=1 This gives us a separate model for each rank, while still conditioning the relevance at rank i on the clickthrough rates at all of the ranks. We do not lose the dependence between relevance at each rank and clickthrough rates on other ranks. We will see the importance of this empirically in section 6. The independence assumption allows us to model p(Xi ) using ordinal regression. Ordinal regression is a generalization of logistic regression to a variable with two or more outcomes that are ranked by preference. The proportional odds model for our ordinal response variable is log ` ` X X p(X > aj |q, c) = ?j + ?q + ?i ci + ?ik ci ck p(X ? aj |q, c) i=1 i<k where aj is one of the five relevance levels. The sums are over all ranks in the list; this models the dependence of the relevance of the document to the clickthrough rates of everything else that was retrieved, as well as any multiplicative dependence between the clickthrough rates at any two ranks. After the model is trained, we can obtain p(X ? aj |q, c) using the inverse logit function. Then p(X = aj |q, c) = p(X ? aj |q, c) ? p(X ? aj?1 |q, c). A generalization to the proportional odds model is the vector generalized additive model (VGAM) described by Yee and Wild [19]. VGAM has the same relationship to ordinal regression that GAM [8] has to logistic regression. It is useful in our case because clicks do not necessarily have linear relationships to relevance. VGAM is implemented in the R library VGAM. Once the model is trained, we have p(X = aj ) using the same arithmetic as for the proportional odds model. 5 Data We obtained data from Yahoo! sponsored search logs for April 2006. Although we limited our data to advertisements, there is no reason in principle our method should not be applicable to general web search, since we see the same effects of bias towards the top of search results, to trusted sites and so on. We have a total of 28,961 relevance judgments for 2,021 queries. The queries are a random sample of all queries entered in late 2005 and early 2006. Relevance judgments are based on details of the advertisement, such as title, summary, and URL. We filtered out queries for which we had no relevance judgments. We then aggregated records into distinct lists of advertisements for a query as follows: Each record L consisted of a query, a search identification string, a set of advertisement ids, and for each advertisement id, the rank the advertisement appeared at and the number of times it was clicked. Different sets of results for a query, or results shown in a different order, were treated as distinct lists. We aggregated distinct lists of results to obtain a clickthrough rate at each rank for a given list of results for a given query. The clickthrough rate on each ad is simply the number of times it was clicked when served as part of list L divided by the impressions, the number of times L was shown to any user. We did not adjust for impression bias. 5 Dependence of Clicks on Entire Result List Our model takes into account the clicks at all ranks to estimate the relevance of the document at position i. As the figure to the right shows, when there is an ?Excellent? document at rank 1, its clickthrough rate varies depending on the relevance of the document at rank 2. For example, a ?Perfect? document at rank 2 may decrease the likelihood of a click on the ?Excellent? document at rank 1, while a ?Fair? document at rank 2 may increase the clickthrough rate for rank 1. Clickthrough rate at rank 1 more than doubles as the relevance of the document at rank 2 drops from ?Perfect? to ?Fair?. 6 6.1 relative clickthrough rate at rank 1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 5.1 Bad Fair GoodExcellentPerfect relevance at rank 2 Experiments Fit of Document Relevance Model We first want to test our proposed model (Eq. (5)) for predicting relevance from clicks. If the model fits well, the distributions of relevance it produces should compare favorably to the actual relevance of the documents. We will compare it to a simpler model that does not take into account the click dependence. The two models are contrasted below: Y dependence model: p(X|q, c) = p(Xi |q, c) Y independence model: p(X|q, c) = p(Xi |q, ci ) The latter models the relevance being conditional only on the query and its own clickthrough rate, ignoring the clickthrough rates of the other items on the page. Essentially, it discretizes clicks into relevance label bins at each rank using the query as an aid. We removed all instances for which we had fewer than 500 impressions, then performed 10-fold cross-validation. For simplicity, the query q is modeled as the aggregate clickthrough rate over all results ever returned for that query. Both models produce a multinomial distribution for the probability of relevance of a document p(Xi ). Predicted relevance is the expected value of this P5 distribution: E[Xi ] = j=1 p(Xi = aj )aj . The correlation between predicted relevance and actual relevance starts from 0.754 at rank 1 and trends downward as we move down the list; by rank 5 it has fallen to 0.527. Lower ranks are clicked less often; there are fewer clicks to provide evidence for relevance. Correlations for the independence model are significantly lower at each point. Figure 1 depicts boxplots for each value of relevance for both models. Each box represents the distribution of predictions for the true value on the x axis. The center line is the median prediction; the edges are the 25% and 75% quantiles. The whiskers are roughly a 95% confidence interval, with the points outside being outliers. When dependence is modeled (Figure 1(a)), the distributions are much more clearly separated from each other, as shown by the fact that there is little overlap in the boxes. The correlation between predicted and acutal relevance is 18% higher, a statistically significant difference. 6.2 Estimating DCG Since our model works fairly well, we now turn our attention to using relevance predictions to estimate DCG for the evaluation of search engines. Recall that we are interested in comparative evaluation?determining the sign of the difference in DCG rather than its magnitude. Our confidence in the sign is P (?DCG < 0), which is estimated using the simulation procedure described in Section 3.3. The simulation samples from the multinomial distributions p(Xi ). Methodology: To be able to calculate the exact DCG to evaluate our models, we need all ads in a list to have a relevance judgment. Therefore our test set will consist of all of the lists for which we have complete relevance judgments and at least 500 impressions. The remainder will be used for training. The size of the test set is 1720 distinct lists. The training sets will include all lists for which we have at least 200 impressions, over 5000 lists. After training the model, we 6 1.5 0.5 1.0 expected relevance 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 expected relevance 0.5 0.0 0.0 Bad Fair Good Excellent Perfect Bad (a) Dependence model; ? = 0.754 Fair Good Excellent Perfect (b) No dependence modeled; ? = 0.638 Figure 1: Predicted vs. actual relevance for rank 1. Correlation increases 18% when dependence of relevance of the document at rank 1 on clickthrough at all ranks is modeled. Confidence Accuracy clicks-only Accuracy 2 judgments 0.5 ? 0.6 0.522 0.572 0.6 ? 0.7 0.617 0.678 0.7 ? 0.8 0.734 0.697 0.8 ? 0.9 0.818 0.890 0.9 ? 0.95 ? 0.918 0.95 ? 1.0 ? 0.940 Table 1: Confidence vs. accuracy of predicting the better ranking for pairs of ranked lists using the relevance predictions of our model based on clicks alone, and with two additional judgments for each pair of lists. Confidence estimates are good predictions of accuracy. predict relevance for the ads in the test set. We then use these expected relevances to calculate the expectation E[DCG]. We will compare these expectations to the true DCG calculated using the actual relevance judgments. As a baseline for Pautomatic evaluation, we will compare to the average ci , the naive approach described in our introduction. clickthrough rate on the list E[CT R] = k1 We then estimate the confidence P (?DCG < 0) for pairs of ranked lists for the same query and compare it to the actual percentage of pairs that had ?DCG < 0. Confidence should be less than or equal to this percentage; if it is, we can ?trust? it in some sense. predicted relevance 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 The figure to the right shows actual vs. predicted relevance for ads in the test set. (This is slightly different from Figure 1: the earlier figure shows predicted results for all data from cross-validation while this one only shows predicted results on our test data.) The separation of the boxes shows that our model is doing quite well on the testing data, at least for rank 1. Performance degrades quite a bit as rank increases (not shown), but it is important to note that the upper ranks have the greatest effect on DCG?so getting those right is most important. 3.0 Results: We first looked at the ability of E[DCG] to predict DCG, as well as the ability of the average clickthrough rate E[CT R] to predict DCG. The correlation between the latter two is 0.622, while the correlation between the former two is 0.876. This means we can approximate DCG better using our model than just using the mean clickthrough rate as a predictor. Bad Fair Good Excellent Perfect In Table 1, we have binned pairs of ranked lists by their estimated confidence. We computed the accuracy of our predictions (the percent of pairs for which the difference in DCG was correctly identified) for each bin. The first line shows results when evaluating with no additional relevance judgments beyond those used for training the model: although confidence estimates tend to be low, they are accurate in the sense that a confidence estimate predicts how well we were able to distinguish between the two lists. This means that the confidence estimates provide a guide for identifying which evaluations require ?hole-filling? (additional judgments). The second line shows how results improve when only two judgments are made. Confidence estimates increase a great deal (to a mean of over 0.8 from a mean of 0.6), and the accuracy of the confidence estimates is not affected. 7 In general, performance is very good: using only the predictions of our model based on clicks, we have a very good sense of the confidence we should have in our evaluation. Judging only two more documents dramatically improves our confidence: there are many more pairs in high-confidence bins after two judgments. 7 Conclusion We have shown how to compare ranking functions using expected DCG. After a single initial training phase, ranking functions can be compared by predicting relevance from clickthrough rates. Estimates of confidence can be computed; the confidence gives a lower bound on how accurately we have predicted that a difference exists. With just a few additional relevance judgments chosen cleverly, we significantly increase our success at predicting whether a difference exists. Using our method, the cost of acquiring relevance judgments for web search evaluation is dramatically reduced, when we have access to click data. References [1] E. Agichtein, E. Brill, and S. T. Dumais. Improving web search ranking by incorporating user behavior information. In Proceedings SIGIR, pages 19?26, 2006. [2] E. Agichtein, E. Brill, S. T. Dumais, and R. Ragno. Learning user interaction models for predicting web search result preferences. In Proceedings SIGIR, pages 3?10, 2006. [3] J. A. Aslam, V. Pavlu, and E. Yilmaz. A sampling technique for efficiently estimating measures of query retrieval performance using incomplete judgments. In Proceedings of the 22nd ICML Workshop on Learning with Partially Classified Training Data, pages 57?66, 2005. [4] A. Broder. A taxonomy of web search. SIGIR Forum, 36(2):3?10, 2002. [5] B. Carterette, J. Allan, and R. K. Sitaraman. Minimal test collections for retrieval evaluation. In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 268?275, 2006. [6] G. V. Cormack, C. R. Palmer, and C. L. Clarke. Efficient Construction of Large Test Collections. In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 282?289, 1998. [7] G. Dupret, B. Piwowarski, C. Hurtado, and M. Mendoza. A statistical model of query log generation. In SPIRE, LNCS 4209, pages 217?228. Springer, 2006. [8] T. Hastie and R. Tibshirani. Generalized additive models. Statistical Science, 1:297?318, 1986. [9] K. Jarvelin and J. Kekalainen. Cumulated gain-based evaluation of ir techniques. ACM Trans. Inf. Syst., 20(4):422?446, 2002. [10] T. Joachims. Optimizing search engines using clickthrough data. In Proceedings of KDD, pages 133?142, 2002. [11] T. Joachims. Evaluating retrieval performance using clickthrough data. In Text Mining, pages 79?96. 2003. [12] T. Joachims, L. A. Granka, B. Pan, H. Hembrooke, and G. Gay. Accurately interpreting clickthrough data as implicit feedback. In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 154?161, 2005. [13] F. Radlinski and T. Joachims. Minimally invasive randomization fro collecting unbiased preferences from clickthrough logs. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2006. [14] M. Richardson, E. Dominowska, and R. Ragno. Predicting clicks: Estimating the click-through rate for new ads. In Proceedings of WWW 2007, 2007. [15] I. Soboroff. Dynamic test collections: measuring search effectiveness on the live web. In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 276?283, 2006. [16] I. Soboroff, C. Nicholas, and P. Cahan. Ranking Retrieval Systems without Relevance Judgments. In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 66?73, 2001. [17] L. Wasserman. All of Nonparametric Statistics. Springer, 2006. [18] S. N. Wood. Thin plate regression splines. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 65(1):95?114, 2003. [19] T. W. Yee and C. J. Wild. Vector generalized additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological), 58(3):481?493, 1996. [20] J. Zobel. How Reliable are the Results of Large-Scale Information Retrieval Experiments? In Proceedings of SIGIR, pages 307?314, 1998. 8
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Random Projections for Manifold Learning Chinmay Hegde ECE Department Rice University [email protected] Michael B. Wakin EECS Department University of Michigan [email protected] Richard G. Baraniuk ECE Department Rice University [email protected] Abstract We propose a novel method for linear dimensionality reduction of manifold modeled data. First, we show that with a small number M of random projections of sample points in RN belonging to an unknown K-dimensional Euclidean manifold, the intrinsic dimension (ID) of the sample set can be estimated to high accuracy. Second, we rigorously prove that using only this set of random projections, we can estimate the structure of the underlying manifold. In both cases, the number of random projections required is linear in K and logarithmic in N , meaning that K < M ? N . To handle practical situations, we develop a greedy algorithm to estimate the smallest size of the projection space required to perform manifold learning. Our method is particularly relevant in distributed sensing systems and leads to significant potential savings in data acquisition, storage and transmission costs. 1 Introduction Recently, we have witnessed a tremendous increase in the sizes of data sets generated and processed by acquisition and computing systems. As the volume of the data increases, memory and processing requirements need to correspondingly increase at the same rapid pace, and this is often prohibitively expensive. Consequently, there has been considerable interest in the task of effective modeling of high-dimensional observed data and information; such models must capture the structure of the information content in a concise manner. A powerful data model for many applications is the geometric notion of a low-dimensional manifold. Data that possesses merely K ?intrinsic? degrees of freedom can be assumed to lie on a K-dimensional manifold in the high-dimensional ambient space. Once the manifold model is identified, any point on it can be represented using essentially K pieces of information. Thus, algorithms in this vein of dimensionality reduction attempt to learn the structure of the manifold given highdimensional training data. While most conventional manifold learning algorithms are adaptive (i.e., data dependent) and nonlinear (i.e., involve construction of a nonlinear mapping), a linear, nonadaptive manifold dimensionality reduction technique has recently been introduced that employs random projections [1]. Consider a K-dimensional manifold M in the ambient space RN and its projection onto a random subspace of dimension M = CK log(N ); note that K < M ? N . The result of [1] is that the pairwise metric structure of sample points from M is preserved with high accuracy under projection from RN to RM . (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 1: Manifold learning using random projections. (a) Input data consisting of 1000 images of a shifted disk, each of size N = 64?64 = 4096. (b) True ?1 and ?2 values of the sampled data. (c,d) Isomap embedding learned from (c) original data in RN , and (d) a randomly projected version of the data into RM with M = 15. This result has far reaching implications. Prototypical devices that directly and inexpensively acquire random projections of certain types of data (signals, images, etc.) have been developed [2, 3]; these devices are hardware realizations of the mathematical tools developed in the emerging area of Compressed Sensing (CS) [4, 5]. The theory of [1] suggests that a wide variety of signal processing tasks can be performed directly on the random projections acquired by these devices, thus saving valuable sensing, storage and processing costs. The advantages of random projections extend even to cases where the original data is available in the ambient space RN . For example, consider a wireless network of cameras observing a scene. To perform joint image analysis, the following steps might be executed: 1. Collate: Each camera node transmits its respective captured image (of size N ) to a central processing unit. 2. Preprocess: The central processor estimates the intrinsic dimension K of the underlying image manifold. 3. Learn: The central processor performs a nonlinear embedding of the data points ? for instance, using Isomap [6] ? into a K-dimensional Euclidean space, using the estimate of K from the previous step. In situations where N is large and communication bandwidth is limited, the dominating costs will be in the first transmission/collation step. On the one hand, to reduce the communication needs one may perform nonlinear image compression (such as JPEG) at each node before transmitting to the central processing. But this requires a good deal of processing power at each sensor, and the compression would have to be undone during the learning step, thus adding to overall computational costs. On the other hand, every camera could encode its image by computing (either directly or indirectly) a small number of random projections to communicate to the central processor. These random projections are obtained by linear operations on the data, and thus are cheaply computed. Clearly, in many situations it will be less expensive to store, transmit, and process such randomly projected versions of the sensed images. The question now becomes: how much information about the manifold is conveyed by these random projections, and is any advantage in analyzing such measurements from a manifold learning perspective? In this paper, we provide theoretical and experimental evidence that reliable learning of a Kdimensional manifold can be performed not just in the high-dimensional ambient space RN but also in an intermediate, much lower-dimensional random projection space RM , where M = CK log(N ). See, for example, the toy example of Figure 1. Our contributions are as follows. First, we present a theoretical bound on the minimum number of measurements per sample point required to estimate the intrinsic dimension (ID) of the underlying manifold, up to an accuracy level comparable to that of the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm [7, 8], a widely used geometric approach for dimensionality estimation. Second, we present a similar bound on the number of measurements M required for Isomap [6] ? a popular manifold learning algorithm ? to be ?reliably? used to discover the nonlinear structure of the manifold. In both cases, M is shown to be linear in K and logarithmic in N . Third, we formulate a procedure to determine, in practical settings, this minimum value of M with no a priori information about the data points. This paves the way for a weakly adaptive, linear algorithm (ML-RP) for dimensionality reduction and manifold learning. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 recaps the manifold learning approaches we utilize. In Section 3 presents our main theoretical contributions, namely, the bounds on M required to perform reliable dimensionality estimation and manifold learning from random projections. Sec- tion 4 describes a new adaptive algorithm that estimates the minimum value of M required to provide a faithful representation of the data so that manifold learning can be performed. Experimental results on a variety of real and simulated data are provided in Section 5. Section 6 concludes with discussion of potential applications and future work. 2 Background An important input parameter for all manifold learning algorithms is the intrinsic dimension (ID) of a point cloud. We aim to embed the data points in as low-dimensional a space as possible in order to avoid the curse of dimensionality. However, if the embedding dimension is too small, then distinct data points might be collapsed onto the same embedded point. Hence a natural question to ask is: given a point cloud in N -dimensional Euclidean space, what is the dimension of the manifold that best captures the structure of this data set? This problem has received considerable attention in the literature and remains an active area of research [7, 9, 10]. For the purposes of this paper, we focus our attention on the Grassberger-Procaccia (GP) [7] algorithm for ID estimation. This is a widely used geometric technique that takes as input the set of pairwise distances between sample points. It then computes the scale-dependent correlation dimension of the data, defined as follows. Definition 2.1 Suppose X = (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) is a finite dataset of underlying dimension K. Define X 1 Ikxi ?xj k<r , Cn (r) = n(n ? 1) i6=j where I is the indicator function. The scale-dependent correlation dimension of X is defined as b corr (r1 , r2 ) = log Cn (r1 ) ? log Cn (r2 ) . D log r1 ? log r2 b is obtained by fixing r1 and r2 to the biggest The best possible approximation to K (call this K) range over which the plot is linear and the calculating Dcorr in that range. There are a number of practical issues involved with this approach; indeed, it has been shown that geometric ID estimation algorithms based on finite sampling yield biased estimates of intrinsic dimension [10, 11]. In our theoretical derivations, we do not attempt to take into account this bias; instead, we prove that the effect of running the GP algorithm on a sufficient number of random projections produces a dimension estimate that well-approximates the GP estimate obtained from analyzing the original point cloud. b of the ID of the point cloud is used by nonlinear manifold learning algorithms (e.g., The estimate K Isomap [6], Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) [12], and Hessian Eigenmaps [13], among many b others) to generate a K-dimensional coordinate representation of the input data points. Our main analysis will be centered around Isomap. Isomap attempts to preserve the metric structure of the manifold, i.e., the set of pairwise geodesic distances of any given point cloud sampled from the manifold. In essence, Isomap approximates the geodesic distances using a suitably defined graph and performs classical multidimensional scaling (MDS) to obtain a reduced K-dimensional representation of the data [6]. A key parameter in the Isomap algorithm is the residual variance, which is equivalent to the stress function encountered in classical MDS. The residual variance is a measure of how well the given dataset can be embedded into a Euclidean space of dimension K. In the next section, we prescribe a specific number of measurements per data point so that performing Isomap on the randomly projected data yields a residual variance that is arbitrarily close to the variance produced by Isomap on the original dataset. We conclude this section by revisiting the results derived in [1], which form the basis for our development. Consider the effect of projecting a smooth K-dimensional manifold residing in RN onto a random M -dimensional subspace (isomorphic to RM ). If M is sufficiently large, a stable near-isometric embedding of the manifold in the lower-dimensional subspace is ensured. The key advantage is that M needs only to be linear in the intrinsic dimension of the manifold K. In addition, M depends only logarithmically on other properties of the manifold, such as its volume, curvature, etc. The result can be summarized in the following theorem. Theorem 2.2 [1] Let M be a compact K-dimensional manifold in RN having volume V and condition number 1/? . Fix 0 < ? < 1 and 0 < ? < 1. Let ? be a random orthoprojector1 from RN to RM and   K log(N V ? ?1 ) log(??1 ) M ?O . (1) ?2 Suppose M < N . Then, with probability exceeding 1 ? ?, the following statement holds: For every pair of points x, y ? M, and i ? {1, 2}, r r M di (?x, ?y) M ? ? (1 + ?) . (2) (1 ? ?) N di (x, y) N where d1 (x, y) (respectively, d2 (x, y)) stands for the geodesic (respectively, ?2 ) distance between points x and y. The condition number ? controls the local, as well as global, curvature of the manifold ? the smaller the ? , the less well-conditioned the manifold with higher ?twistedness? [1]. Theorem 2.2 has been proved by first specifying a finite high-resolution sampling on the manifold, the nature of which depends on its intrinsic properties; for instance, a planar manifold can be sampled coarsely. Then the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma [14] is applied to these points to guarantee the so-called ?isometry constant? ?, which is nothing but (2). 3 Bounds on the performance of ID estimation and manifold learning algorithms under random projection We saw above that random projections essentially ensure that the metric structure of a highdimensional input point cloud (i.e., the set of all pairwise distances between points belonging to the dataset) is preserved up to a distortion that depends on ?. This immediately suggests that geometrybased ID estimation and manifold learning algorithms could be applied to the lower-dimensional, randomly projected version of the dataset. The first of our main results establishes a sufficient dimension of random projection M required to maintain the fidelity of the estimated correlation dimension using the GP algorithm. The proof of the following is detailed in [15]. Theorem 3.1 Let M be a compact K-dimensional manifold in RN having volume V and condition number 1/? . Let X = {x1 , x2 , ...} be a sequence of samples drawn from a uniform density b be the dimension estimate of the GP algorithm on X over the range supported on M. Let K (rmin , rmax ). Let ? = ln(rmax /rmin ) . Fix 0 < ? < 1 and 0 < ? < 1. Suppose the following condition holds: rmax < ? /2 (3) Let ? be a random orthoprojector from RN to RM with M < N and   K log(N V ? ?1 ) log(??1 ) . (4) M ?O ?2 ?2 b ? be the estimated correlation dimension on ?X in the projected space over the range Let K p p b ? is bounded by: (rmin M/N , rmax M/N ). Then, K with probability exceeding 1 ? ?. b ?K b ? ? (1 + ?)K b (1 ? ?)K (5) Theorem 3.1 is a worst-case bound and serves as a sufficient condition for stable ID estimation using random projections. Thus, if we choose a sufficiently small value for ? and ?, we are guaranteed estimation accuracy levels as close as desired to those obtained with ID estimation in the original b ? is multiplicative. This implies that in the worst case, the signal space. Note that the bound on K 1 Such a matrix is formed by orthogonalizing M vectors of length N having, for example, i.i.d. Gaussian or Bernoulli distributed entries. b ? very close to K b (say, within integer roundoff error) number of projections required to estimate K becomes higher with increasing manifold dimension K. The second of our main results prescribes the minimum dimension of random projections required to maintain the residual variance produced by Isomap in the projected domain within an arbitrary additive constant of that produced by Isomap with the full data in the ambient space. This proof of this theorem [15] relies on the proof technique used in [16]. Theorem 3.2 Let M be a compact K-dimensional manifold in RN having volume V and condition number 1/? . Let X = {x1 , x2 , ..., xn } be a finite set of samples drawn from a sufficiently fine density supported on M. Let ? be a random orthoprojector from RN to RM with M < N . Fix 0 < ? < 1 and 0 < ? < 1. Suppose   K log(N V ? ?1 ) log(??1 ) . M ?O ?2 Define the diameter ? of the dataset as follows: ? = max diso (xi , xj ) 1?i,j?n where diso (x, y) stands for the Isomap estimate of the geodesic distance between points x and y. Define R and R? to be the residual variances obtained when Isomap generates a K-dimensional embedding of the original dataset X and projected dataset ?X respectively. Under suitable constructions of the Isomap connectivity graphs, R? is bounded by: R? < R + C?2 ? with probability exceeding 1 ? ?. C is a function only on the number of sample points n. Since the choice of ? is arbitrary, we can choose a large enough M (which is still only logarithmic in N ) such that the residual variance yielded by Isomap on the randomly projected version of the dataset is arbitrarily close to the variance produced with the data in the ambient space. Again, this result is derived from a worst-case analysis. Note that ? acts as a measure of the scale of the dataset. In practice, we may enforce the condition that the data is normalized (i.e., every pairwise distance calculated by Isomap is divided by ?). This ensures that the K-dimensional embedded representation is contained within a ball of unit norm centered at the origin. Thus, we have proved that with only an M -dimensional projection of the data (with M ? N ) we can perform ID estimation and subsequently learn the structure of a K-dimensional manifold, up to accuracy levels obtained by conventional methods. In Section 4, we utilize these sufficiency results to motivate an algorithm for performing practical manifold structure estimation using random projections. 4 How many random projections are enough? In practice, it is hard to know or estimate the parameters V and ? of the underlying manifold. Also, b and R, the outputs since we have no a priori information regarding the data, it is impossible to fix K of GP and Isomap on the point cloud in the ambient space. Thus, often, we may not be able fix a definitive value for M . To circumvent this problem we develop the following empirical procedure that we dub it ML-RP for manifold learning using random projections. We initialize M to a small number, and compute M random projections of the data set X = {x1 , x2 , ..., xn } (here n denotes the number of points in the point cloud). Using the set ?X = b {?x : x ? X}, we estimate the intrinsic dimension using the GP algorithm. This estimate, say K, b is used by the Isomap algorithm to produce an embedding into K-dimensional space. The residual variance produced by this operation is recorded. We then increment M by 1 and repeat the entire process. The algorithm terminates when the residual variance obtained is smaller than some tolerance parameter ?. A full length description is provided in Algorithm 1. The essence of ML-RP is as follows. A sufficient number M of random projections is determined by a nonlinear procedure (i.e., sequential computation of Isomap residual variance) so that conventional Algorithm 1 ML-RP M ?1 ? ? Random orthoprojector of size M ? N . while residual variance ? ? do Run the GP algorithm on ?X. b to perform Isomap on ?X. Use ID estimate (K) Calculate residual variance. M ?M +1 Add one row to ? end while return M b return K (a) (b) Figure 2: Performance of ID estimation using GP as a function of random projections. Sample size n = 1000, ambient dimension N = 150. (a) Estimated intrinsic dimension for underlying hyperspherical manifolds of increasing dimension. The solid line indicates the value of the ID estimate obtained by GP performed on the original data. (b) Minimum number of projections required for GP to work with 90% accuracy as compared to GP on native data. manifold learning does almost as well on the projected dataset as the original. On the other hand, the random linear projections provide a faithful representation of the data in the geodesic sense. In this manner, ML-RP helps determine the number of rows that ? requires in order to act as an operator that preserves metric structure. Therefore, ML-RP can be viewed as an adaptive method for linear reduction of data dimensionality. It is only weakly adaptive in the sense that only the stopping criterion for ML-RP is determined by monitoring the nature of the projected data. The results derived in Section 3 can be viewed as convergence proofs for ML-RP. The existence of a certain minimum number of measurements for any chosen error value ? ensures that eventually, M in the ML-RP algorithm is going to become high enough to ensure ?good? Isomap performance. Also, due to the built-in parsimonious nature of ML-RP, we are ensured to not ?overmeasure? the manifold, i.e., just the requisite numbers of projections of points are obtained. 5 Experimental results This section details the results of simulations of ID estimation and subsequent manifold learning on real and synthetic datasets. First, we examine the performance of the GP algorithm on random projections of K-dimensional dimensional hyperspheres embedded in an ambient space of dimension N = 150. Figure 2(a) shows the variation of the dimension estimate produced by GP as a function of the number of projections M . The sampled dataset in each of the cases is obtained from drawing n = 1000 samples from a uniform distribution supported on a hypersphere of corresponding dimension. Figure 2(b) displays the minimum number of projections per sample point required to estimate the scale-dependent correlation dimension directly from the random projections, up to 10% error, when compared to GP estimation on the original data. We observe that the ID estimate stabilizes quickly with increasing number of projections, and indeed converges to the estimate obtained by running the GP algorithm on the original data. Figure 2(b) illustrates the variation of the minimum required projection dimension M vs. K, the intrinsic dimen- Figure 3: Standard databases. Ambient dimension for the face database N = 4096; ambient dimension for the hand rotation databases N = 3840. Figure 4: Performance of ML-RP on the above databases. (left) ML-RP on the face database (N = 4096). Good approximates are obtained for M > 50. (right) ML-RP on the hand rotation database (N = 3840). For M > 60, the Isomap variance is indistinguishable from the variance obtained in the ambient space. sion of the underlying manifold. We plot the intrinsic dimension of the dataset against the minimum b ? is within 10% of the conventional GP estimate K b (this number of projections required such that K is equivalent to choosing ? = 0.1 in Theorem 3.1). We observe the predicted linearity (Theorem 3.1) in the variation of M vs K. Finally, we turn our attention to two common datasets (Figure 3) found in the literature on dimension estimation ? the face database2 [6], and the hand rotation database [17].3 The face database is a collection of 698 artificial snapshots of a face (N = 64 ? 64 = 4096) varying under 3 degrees of freedom: 2 angles for pose and 1 for lighting dimension. The signals are therefore believed to reside on a 3D manifold in an ambient space of dimension 4096. The hand rotation database is a set of 90 images (N = 64 ? 60 = 3840) of rotations of a hand holding an object. Although the image appearance manifold is ostensibly one-dimensional, estimators in the literature always overestimate its ID [11]. Random projections of each sample in the databases were obtained by computing the inner product of the image samples with an increasing number of rows of the random orthoprojector ?. We note that in the case of the face database, for M > 60, the Isomap variance on the randomly projected points closely approximates the variance obtained with full image data. This behavior of convergence of the variance to the best possible value is even more sharply observed in the hand rotation database, in which the two variance curves are indistinguishable for M > 60. These results are particularly encouraging and demonstrate the validity of the claims made in Section 3. 6 Discussion Our main theoretical contributions in this paper are the explicit values for the lower bounds on the minimum number of random projections required to perform ID estimation and subsequent manifold learning using Isomap, with high guaranteed accuracy levels. We also developed an empirical greedy algorithm (ML-RP) for practical situations. Experiments on simple cases, such as uniformly generated hyperspheres of varying dimension, and more complex situations, such as the image databases displayed in Figure 3, provide sufficient evidence of the nature of the bounds described above. 2 http://isomap.stanford.edu http://vasc.ri.cmu.edu//idb/html/motion/hand/index.html. Note that we use a subsampled version of the database used in the literature, both in terms of resolution of the image and sampling of the manifold. 3 The method of random projections is thus a powerful tool for ensuring the stable embedding of lowdimensional manifolds into an intermediate space of reasonable size. The motivation for developing results and algorithms that involve random measurements of high-dimensional data is significant, particularly due to the increasing attention that Compressive Sensing (CS) has received recently. It is now possible to think of settings involving a huge number of low-power devices that inexpensively capture, store, and transmit a very small number of measurements of high-dimensional data. ML-RP is applicable in all such situations. In situations where the bottleneck lies in the transmission of the data to the central processing node, ML-RP provides a simple solution to the manifold learning problem and ensures that with minimum transmitted amount of information, effective manifold learning can be performed. The metric structure of the projected dataset upon termination of MLRP closely resembles that of the original dataset with high probability; thus, ML-RP can be viewed as a novel adaptive algorithm for finding an efficient, reduced representation of data of very large dimension. References [1] R. G. Baraniuk and M. B. Wakin. Random projections of smooth manifolds. 2007. To appear in Foundations of Computational Mathematics. [2] M. B. Wakin, J. N. Laska, M. F. Duarte, D. Baron, S. Sarvotham, D. Takhar, K. F. Kelly, and R. G. Baraniuk. An architecture for compressive imaging. In IEEE International Conference on Image Processing (ICIP), pages 1273?1276, Oct. 2006. [3] S. Kirolos, J.N. Laska, M.B. Wakin, M.F. Duarte, D.Baron, T. Ragheb, Y. Massoud, and R.G. Baraniuk. Analog-to-information conversion via random demodulation. In Proc. IEEE Dallas Circuits and Systems Workshop (DCAS), 2006. [4] E. J. Cand`es, J. Romberg, and T. Tao. Robust uncertainty principles: Exact signal reconstruction from highly incomplete frequency information. IEEE Trans. Info. Theory, 52(2):489?509, Feb. 2006. [5] D. L. Donoho. Compressed sensing. IEEE Trans. Info. Theory, 52(4):1289?1306, September 2006. [6] J. B. Tenenbaum, V.de Silva, and J. C. Landford. A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Science, 290:2319?2323, 2000. [7] P. Grassberger and I. Procaccia. Measuring the strangeness of strange attractors. Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena, 9:189?208, 1983. [8] J. Theiler. Statistical precision of dimension estimators. Physical Review A, 41(6):3038?3051, 1990. [9] F. Camastra. Data dimensionality estimation methods: a survey. Pattern Recognition, 36:2945? 2954, 2003. [10] J. A. Costa and A. O. Hero. Geodesic entropic graphs for dimension and entropy estimation in manifold learning. IEEE Trans. Signal Processing, 52(8):2210?2221, August 2004. [11] E. Levina and P. J. Bickel. Maximum likelihood estimation of intrinsic dimension. In Advances in NIPS, volume 17. MIT Press, 2005. [12] S. Roweis and L. Saul. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding. Science, 290:2323?2326, 2000. [13] D. Donoho and C. Grimes. Hessian eigenmaps: locally linear embedding techniques for high dimensional data. Proc. of National Academy of Sciences, 100(10):5591?5596, 2003. [14] Sanjoy Dasgupta and Anupam Gupta. An elementary proof of the JL lemma. Technical Report TR-99-006, University of California, Berkeley, 1999. [15] C. Hegde, M. B. Wakin, and R. G. Baraniuk. Random projections for manifold learning proofs and analysis. Technical Report TREE 0710, Rice University, 2007. [16] M. Bernstein, V. de Silva, J. Langford, and J. Tenenbaum. Graph approximations to geodesics on embedded manifolds, 2000. Technical report, Stanford University. [17] B. K?egl. Intrinsic dimension estimation using packing numbers. In Advances in NIPS, volume 14. MIT Press, 2002.
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Anytime Induction of Cost-sensitive Trees Saher Esmeir Computer Science Department Technion?Israel Institute of Technology Haifa 32000, Israel [email protected] Shaul Markovitch Computer Science Department Technion?Israel Institute of Technology Haifa 32000, Israel [email protected] Abstract Machine learning techniques are increasingly being used to produce a wide-range of classifiers for complex real-world applications that involve nonuniform testing costs and misclassification costs. As the complexity of these applications grows, the management of resources during the learning and classification processes becomes a challenging task. In this work we introduce ACT (Anytime Cost-sensitive Trees), a novel framework for operating in such environments. ACT is an anytime algorithm that allows trading computation time for lower classification costs. It builds a tree top-down and exploits additional time resources to obtain better estimations for the utility of the different candidate splits. Using sampling techniques ACT approximates for each candidate split the cost of the subtree under it and favors the one with a minimal cost. Due to its stochastic nature ACT is expected to be able to escape local minima, into which greedy methods may be trapped. Experiments with a variety of datasets were conducted to compare the performance of ACT to that of the state of the art cost-sensitive tree learners. The results show that for most domains ACT produces trees of significantly lower costs. ACT is also shown to exhibit good anytime behavior with diminishing returns. 1 Introduction Suppose that a medical center has decided to use machine learning techniques to induce a diagnostic tool from records of previous patients. The center aims to obtain a comprehensible model, with low expected test costs (the costs of testing attribute values) and high expected accuracy. Moreover, in many cases there are costs associated with the predictive errors. In such a scenario, the task of the inducer is to produce a model with low expected test costs and low expected misclassification costs. A good candidate for achieving the goals of comprehensibility and reduced costs is a decision tree model. Decision trees are easily interpretable because they mimic the way doctors think [13][chap. 9]. In the context of cost-sensitive classification, decision trees are the natural form of representation: they ask only for the values of the features along a single path from the root to a leaf. Indeed, cost-sensitive trees have been the subject of many research efforts. Several works proposed learners that consider different misclassification costs [7, 18, 6, 9, 10, 14, 1]. These methods, however, do not consider test costs. Other authors designed tree learners that take into account test costs, such as IDX [16], CSID3 [22], and EG2 [17]. These methods, however, do not consider misclassification costs. The medical center scenario exemplifies the need for considering both types of cost together: doctors do not perform a test before considering both its cost and its importance to the diagnosis. Minimal Cost trees, a method that attempts to minimize both types of costs simultaneously has been proposed in [21]. A tree is built top-down. The immediate reduction in total cost each split results in is estimated, and a split with the maximal reduction is selected. Although efficient, the Minimal Cost approach can be trapped into a local minimum and produce trees that are not globally optimal. 1 cost(a1-10) = $$ a9 a10 0 1 a7 a10 1 a6 a9 0 cost(a1-8) = $$ cost(a9,10) = $$$$$$ a1 0 a9 1 1 a4 0 0 a4 1 1 0 Figure 1: A difficulty for greedy learners (left). Importance of context-based evaluation (right). For example, consider a problem with 10 attributes a1?10 , of which only a9 and a10 are relevant. The cost of a9 and a10 , however, is significantly higher than the others but lower than the cost of misclassification. This may hide their usefulness, and mislead the learner to fit a large expensive tree. The problem is intensified if a9 and a10 were interdependent with a low immediate information gain (e.g., a9 ? a10 ), as illustrated in Figure 1 (left). In such a case, even if the costs were uniform, local measures would fail in recognizing the relevance of a9 and a10 and other attributes might be preferred. The Minimal Cost method is appealing when resources are very limited. However, it requires a fixed runtime and cannot exploit additional resources. In many real-life applications, we are willing to wait longer if a better tree can be induced. For example, due to the importance of the model, the medical center is ready to allocate 1 week to learn it. Algorithms that can exploit more time to produce solutions of better quality are called anytime algorithms [5]. One way to exploit additional time when searching for a tree of lower costs is to widen the search space. In [2] the cost-sensitive learning problem is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and a systematic search is used to solve the MDP. Although the algorithm searches for an optimal strategy, the time and memory limits prevent it from always finding optimal solutions. The ICET algorithm [24] was a pioneer in searching non-greedily for a tree that minimizes both costs together. ICET uses genetic search to produce a new set of costs that reflects both the original costs and the contribution each attribute can make to reduce misclassification costs. Then it builds a tree using the greedy EG2 algorithm but with the evolved costs instead of the original ones. ICET was shown to produce trees of lower total cost. It can use additional time resources to produce more generations and hence to widen its search in the space of costs. Nevertheless, it is limited in the way it can exploit extra time. Firstly, it builds the final tree using EG2. EG2 prefers attributes with high information gain (and low test cost). Therefore, when the concept to learn hides interdependency between attributes, the greedy measure may underestimate the usefulness of highly relevant attributes, resulting in more expensive trees. Secondly, even if ICET may overcome the above problem by reweighting the attributes, it searches the space of parameters globally, regardless of the context. This imposes a problem if an attribute is important in one subtree but useless in another. To illustrate the above consider the concept in Figure 1 (right). There are 10 attributes of similar costs. Depending on the value of a1 , the target concept is a7 ? a9 or a4 ? a6 . Due to interdependencies, all attributes will have a low gain. Because ICET assigns costs globally, they will have similar costs as well. Therefore, ICET will not be able to recognize which attribute is relevant in what context. Recently, we have introduced LSID3, a cost-insensitive algorithm, which can induce more accurate trees when given more time [11]. The algorithm uses stochastic sampling techniques to evaluate candidate splits. It is not designed, however, to minimize test and misclassification costs. In this work we build on LSID3 and propose ACT, an Anytime Cost-sensitive Tree learner that can exploit additional time to produce trees of lower costs. Applying the sampling mechanism to the costsensitive setup, however, is not trivial and imposes several challenges which we address in Section 2. Extensive set of experiments that compares ACT to EG2 and to ICET is reported in Section 3. The results show that ACT is significantly better for the majority of problems. In addition ACT is shown to exhibit good anytime behavior with diminishing returns. The major contributions of this paper are: (1) a non-greedy algorithm for learning trees of lower costs that allows handling complex cost structures, (2) an anytime framework that allows learning time to be traded for reduced classification costs, and (3) a parameterized method for automatic assigning of costs for existing datasets. Note that costs may also be involved during example acquisition [12, 15]. In this work, however, we assume that the full training examples are in hand. Moreover, we assume that during the test phase, all tests in the relevant path will be taken. Several test strategies that determine which values to query for and at what order have been recently studied [21]. These strategies are orthogonal to our work because they assume a given tree. 2 2 The ACT Algorithm Offline concept learning consists of two stages: learning from labelled examples; and using the induced model to classify unlabelled instances. These two stages involve different types of cost [23]. Our primary goal in this work is to trade the learning time for reduced test and misclassification costs. To make the problem well defined, we need to specify how to: (1) represent misclassification costs, (2) calculate test costs, and (3) combine both types of cost. To answer these questions, we adopt the model described by Turney [24]. In a problem with |C| different classes, a classification cost matrix M is a |C| ? |C| matrix whose Mi,j entry defines the penalty of assigning the class ci to an instance that actually belongs to the class cj . To calculate the test costs of a particular case, we sum the cost of the tests along the path from the root to the appropriate leaf. For tests that appear several times we charge only for the first occurrence. The model handles two special test types, namely grouped and delayed. Grouped tests share a common cost that is charged only once per group. Each test also has an extra cost charged when the test is actually made. For example, consider a tree path with tests like cholesterol level and glucose level. For both values to be measured, a blood test is needed. Clearly, once blood samples are taken to measure the cholesterol level, the cost for measuring the glucose level is lower. Delayed tests are tests whose outcome cannot be obtained immediately, e.g., lab test results. Such tests force us to wait until the outcome is available. Alternatively, we can take into account all possible outcomes and follow several paths in the tree simultaneously (and pay for their costs). Once the result of the delayed test is available, the prediction is in hand. Note that we might be charged for tests that we would not perform if the outcome of the delayed tests were available. In this work we do not handle delayed costs but we do explain how to adapt our framework to scenarios that involve them. Having measured the test costs and misclassification costs, an important question is how to combine them. Following [24] we assume that both types of cost are given in the same scale. Alternatively, Qin et. al. [19] presented a method to handle the two kinds of cost scales by setting a maximal budget for one kind and minimizing the other. ACT, our proposed anytime framework for induction of cost-sensitive trees, builds on the recently introduced LSID3 algorithm [11]. LSID3 adopts the general top-down induction of decision trees scheme (TDIDT): it starts from the entire set of training examples, partitions it into subsets by testing the value of an attribute, and then recursively builds subtrees. Unlike greedy inducers, LSID3 invests more time resources for making better split decisions. For every candidate split, LSID3 attempts to estimate the size of the resulting subtree were the split to take place and following Occam?s razor [4] it favors the one with the smallest expected size. The estimation is based on a biased sample of the space of trees rooted at the evaluated attribute. The sample is obtained using a stochastic version of ID3, called SID3 [11]. In SID3, rather than choosing an attribute that maximizes the information gain ?I (as in ID3), the splitting attribute is chosen semi-randomly. The likelihood that an attribute will be chosen is proportional to its information gain. LSID3 is a contract algorithm parameterized by r, the sample size. When r is larger, the resulting estimations are expected to be more accurate, therefore improving the final tree. Let m = |E| be the number of examples and n = |A| be the number of attributes. The runtime complexity of LSID3 is O(rmn3 ) [11]. LSID3 was shown to exhibit a good anytime behavior with diminishing returns. When applied to hard concepts, it produced significantly better trees than ID3 and C4.5. ACT takes the same sampling approach as in LSID3. However, three major components of LSID3 need to be replaced for the cost-sensitive setup: (1) sampling the space of trees, (2) evaluating a tree, and (3) pruning. Obtaining the Sample. LISD3 uses SID3 to bias the samples towards small trees. In ACT, however, we would like to bias our sample towards low cost trees. For this purpose, we designed a stochastic version of the EG2 algorithm, that attempts to build low cost trees greedily. In EG2, a tree is built top-down, and the attribute that maximizes ICF (Information Cost Function) is chosen for splitting  a node, where, ICF (a) = 2?I(a) ? 1 / ((cost (a) + 1)w ). In Stochastic EG2 (SEG2), we choose splitting attributes semi-randomly, proportionally to their ICF. Due to the stochastic nature of SEG2 we expect to be able to escape local minima for at least some of the trees in the sample. To obtain a sample of size r, ACT uses EG2 once and SEG2 r ? 1 times. Unlike ICET, we give EG2 and SEG2 a direct access to context-based costs, i.e., if an attribute has already been tested its cost would be zero and if another attribute that belongs to the same group has been tested, a group discount is applied. The parameter w controls the bias towards lower cost 3 attributes. While ICET tunes this parameter using genetic search, we set w inverse proportionally to the misclassification cost: a high misclassification cost results in a smaller w, reducing the effect of attribute costs. One direction for future work would be to tune w a priori. Evaluating a Subtree. As a cost insensitive learner, the main goal of LSID3 is to maximize the expected accuracy of the learned tree. Following Occam?s razor, it uses the tree size as a preference bias and favors splits that are expected to reduce the final tree size. In a cost-sensitive setup, our goal is to minimize the expected cost of classification. Following the same lookahead strategy as LSID3, we sample the space of trees under each candidate split. However, instead of choosing an attribute that minimizes the size, we would like to choose one that minimizes costs. Therefore, given a tree, we need to come up with a procedure that estimates the expected costs when classifying a future case. This cost consists of two components: the test cost and misclassification cost. Assuming that the distribution of future cases would be similar to that of the learning examples, we can estimate the test costs using the training data. Given a tree, we calculate the average test cost of the training examples and use it to approximate the test cost of new cases. For a tree T and a set of training examples E, we denote the average cost of traversing T for an example from E (average testing cost) by tst-cost(T, E). Note that group discounts and delayed cost penalties do not need a special care because they will be incorporated when calculating the average test costs. Estimating the cost of errors is not obvious. One can no longer use the tree size as a heuristic for predictive errors. Occam?s razor allows to compare two consistent trees but does not provide a mean to estimate accuracy. Moreover, tree size is measured in a different currency than accuracy and hence cannot be easily incorporated in the cost function. Instead, we propose using a different estimator: the expected error [20]. For a leaf with m training examples, of which e are misclassified the expected error is defined as the upper limit on the probability for error, i.e., EE(m, e, cf ) = Ucf (e, m) where cf is the confidence level and U is the confidence interval for binomial distribution. The expected error of a tree is the sum of the expected errors in its leafs. Originally, the expected error was used by C4.5 to predict whether a subtree performs better than a leaf. Although it lacks theoretical basis, it was shown experimentally to be a good heuristic. In ACT we use the expected error to approximate the misclassification cost. Assume a problem with |C| classes and a misclassification cost matrix M . Let c be the class label in a leaf l. Let m be the total number of examples in l and mi be the number of examples in l that belong to class i. The expected misclassification cost in l is (the right most expression assumes uniform misclassification cost Mi,j = mc) X 1 mc-cost(l) = EE(m, m ? mc , cf ) ? Mc,i = EE(m, m ? mc , cf ) ? mc |C| ? 1 i6=c The expected error of a tree is the sum of the expected errors in its leafs. In our experiments we use cf = 0.25, as in C4.5. In the future, we intend to tune cf if the allocated time allows. Alternatively, we also plan to estimate the error using a set-aside validation set, when the training set size allows. To conclude, let E be the set of examples used to learn a tree T , and let m be the size of E. Let L be the set of leafs in T . The expected total cost of T when classifying an instance is: 1 X tst-cost(T, E) + ? mc-cost (l). m l?L Having decided about the sampler and the tree utility function we are ready to formalize the tree growing phase in ACT. A tree is built top-down. The procedure for selecting splitting test at each node is listed in Figure 2 (left), and exemplified in Figure 2 (right). The selection procedure, as formalized is Figure 2 (left) needs to be slightly modified when an attribute is numeric: instead of iterating over the values the attribute can take, we examine r cutting points, each is evaluated with a single invocation of EG2. This guarantees that numeric and nominal attributes get the same resources. The r points are chosen dynamically, according to their information gain. Costs-sensitive Pruning. Pruning plays an important role in decision tree induction. In costinsensitive environments, the main goal of pruning is to simplify the tree in order to avoid overfitting. A subtree is pruned if the resulting tree is expected to yield a lower error. When test costs are taken into account, pruning has another important role: reducing costs. It is worthwhile to keep a subtree only if its expected reduction to the misclassification cost is larger that the cost of its tests. If the misclassification cost was zero, it makes no sense to keep any split in the tree. If, on the other hand, 4 Procedure ACT-C HOOSE -ATTRIBUTE(E, A, r) If r = 0 Return EG2-C HOOSE -ATTRIBUTE(E, A) Foreach a ? A Foreach vi ? domain(a) Ei ? {e ? E | a(e) = vi } T ? EG2(a, Ei , A ? {a}) mini ? C OST(T, Ei ) Repeat r ? 1 times T ? SEG2(a, Ei , A ? {a}) mini ? min (mini , C OST(T, Ei )) P|domain(a)| totala ? C OST(a) + i=1 mini Return a for which totala is minimal a cost(SEG2) =5.1 ) G2 SE st( .9 co =4 cost(EG2) =4.1 cost(EG2) =8.9 Figure 2: Attribute selection (left) and evaluation (right) in ACT (left). Assume that the cost of a in the current context is 1. The estimated cost of a subtree rooted at a is therefore 1 + min(4.1, 5.1) + min(8.9, 4.9) = 9. the misclassification cost was very large, we would expect similar behavior to the cost-insensitive setup. To handle this challenge, we propose a novel approach for cost-sensitive pruning. Similarly to error-based pruning [20], we scan the tree bottom-up. For each subtree, we compare its expected total cost to that of a leaf. Formally, assume that e examples in E do not belong to the default class.1 We prune a subtree T into a leaf if: 1 1 X ? mc-cost(l) ? tst-cost(T, E) + ? mc-cost(l). m m l?L 3 Empirical Evaluation A variety of experiments were conducted to test the performance and behavior of ACT. First we describe and motivate our experimental methodology. We then present and discuss our results. 3.1 Methodology We start our experimental evaluation by comparing ACT, given a fixed resource allocation, with EG2 and ICET. EG2 was selected as a representative for greedy learners. We also tested the performance of CSID3 and IDX but found the results very similar to EG2, confirming the report in [24]. Our second set of experiments compares the anytime behavior of ACT to that of ICET. Because the code of EG2 and ICET is not publicly available we have reimplemented them. To verify the reimplementation results, we compared them with those reported in literature. We followed the same experimental setup and used the same 5 datasets. The results are indeed similar with the basic version of ICET achieving an average cost of 49.9 in our reimplementation vs. 49 in Turney?s paper [24]. One possible reason for the slight difference may be the randomization involved in the genetic search as well as in data partitioning into training, validating, and testing sets. Datasets. Typically, machine learning researchers use datasets from the UCI repository [3]. Only five UCI datasets, however, have assigned test costs [24]. To gain a wider perspective, we developed an automatic method that assigns costs to existing datasets randomly. The method is parameterized with: (1) cr the cost range, (2) g the number of desired groups as a percentage of the number of attributes, and (3) sc the group shared cost as a percentage of the maximal marginal cost in the group. Using this method we assigned costs to 25 datasets: 21 arbitrarily chosen UCI datasets2 and 4 datasets that represent hard concept and have been used in previous research. The online appendix 3 gives detailed descriptions of these datasets. Two versions of each dataset have been created, both with cost range of 1-100. In the first g and sc were set to 20% and in the second they were set to 80%. These parameters were chosen arbitrarily, in attempt to cover different types of costs. In total we have 55 datasets: 5 with costs assigned as in [24] and 50 with random costs. Cost-insensitive learning algorithms focus on accuracy and therefore are expected to perform well 1 The default class is the one that minimizes the misclassification cost in the node. The chosen UCI datasets vary in their size, type of attributes and dimension. 3 http://www.cs.technion.ac.il/?esaher/publications/nips07 2 5 Table 1: Average cost of classification as a percentage of the standard cost of classification. The table also lists for each of ACT and ICET the number of significant wins they had using t-test. The last row shows the winner, if any, as implied by a Wilcoxon test over all datasets with ? = 5%. EG2 22.37 AVERAGE B ETTER W ILCOXON mc = 10 ICET 10.23 0 ACT 2.21 34 ? EG2 25.93 mc = 100 ICET ACT 17.15 11.86 0 25 ? EG2 38.69 mc = 1000 ICET ACT 35.28 34.38 3 11 EG2 54.22 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 mc = 10000 ICET ACT 47.47 41.62 10 12 ? 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 3: Illustration of the differences in performance between ACT and ICET for misclassification costs (from left to right: 10, 100, 1000, and 10000). Each point represents a dataset. The x-axis represents the cost of ICET while the y-axis represents that of ACT. The dashed line indicates equality. Points are below it if ACT performs better and above it if ICET is better. when testing costs are negligible relative to misclassification costs. On the other hand, when testing costs are significant, ignoring them would result in expensive classifiers. Therefore, to evaluate a cost-sensitive learner a wide spectrum of misclassification costs is needed. For each problem out of the 55, we created 4 instances, with uniform misclassification costs mc = 10, 100, 1000, 10000. Normalized Cost. As pointed out by Turney [24], using the average cost is problematic because: (1) the differences in costs among the algorithms become small as misclassification cost increases, (2) it is difficult to combine the results for the multiple datasets, and (3) it is difficult to combine average costs for different misclassification costs. To overcome these problems, Turney suggests to normalize the average cost of classification by dividing it by the standard cost, defined as (T C + mini (1 ? fi ) ? maxi,j (Mi,j )), The standard cost is an approximation for the maximal cost in a given problem. It consists of two components: (1) T C, the cost if we take all tests, and (2) the misclassification cost if the classifier achieves only the base-line accuracy. fi denotes the frequency of class i in the data and hence (1 ? fi ) would be the error if the response would always be class i. Statistical Significance. For each problem, one 10 fold cross-validation experiment has been conducted. The same partition to train-test sets was used for all compared algorithms. To test the statistical significance of the differences between ACT and ICET we used two tests. The first is t-test with a ? = 5% confidence: for each method we counted how many times it was a significant winner. The second is Wilcoxon test [8], which compares classifiers over multiple datasets and states whether one method is significantly better than the other (? = 5%). 3.2 Fixed-time Comparison For each of the 55 ? 4 problem instances, we run the seeded version of ICET with its default parameters (20 generations),4 EG2, and ACT with r = 5. We choose r = 5 so the average runtime of ACT would be shorter than ICET for all problems. EG2 and ICET use the same post-pruning mechanism as in C4.5. In EG2 the default confidence factor is used (0.25) while in ICET this value is tuned using the genetic search. Table 1 lists the average results, Figure 3 illustrates the differences between ICET and ACT, and Figure 4 (left) plots the average cost for the different values of mc. The full results are available in the online appendix. Similarly to the results reported in [24] ICET is clearly better than EG2, because the latter does not consider misclassification costs. When mc is set to 10 and to 100 ACT significantly outperforms ICET for most datasets. In these cases ACT was able to produce very small trees, sometimes consist of one node, neglecting the accuracy of the learned model. For mc set to 1000 and 10000 there are fewer significant wins, yet it is clear that ACT is dominating: the 4 Seeded ICET includes the true costs in the initial population and was reported to perform better [24]. 6 30 20 EG2 ICET ACT 10 0 10 100 1000 Misclassification Cost 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 10000 50 C4.5 ICET ACT 45 EG2 ICET ACT 48 Average Cost 40 Average Cost Average Accuracy Average Cost 50 46 44 42 100 1000 Misclassification Cost 10000 35 30 EG2 ICET ACT 25 20 40 10 40 0 1 2 3 Time [sec] 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 Time [sec] 5 6 Figure 4: Average cost (left most) and accuracy (mid-left) as a function of misclassification cost. Average cost as a function of time for Breast-cancer-20 (mid-right) and Multi-XOR-80 (right most). number of ACT wins is higher and the average results indicate that ACT trees are cheaper. The Wilcoxon test, states that for mc = 10, 100, 10000, ACT is significantly better than ICET, and that for mc = 1000 no significant winner was found. When misclassification costs are low, an optimal algorithm would produce a very shallow tree. When misclassification costs are dominant, an optimal algorithm would produce a highly accurate tree. Some concepts, however, are not easily learnable and even cost-insensitive algorithms fail to achieve perfect accuracy on them. Hence, with the increase in the importance of accuracy the normalized cost increases: the predictive errors affect the cost more dramatically. To learn more about the effect of accuracy, we compared the accuracy of ACT to that of C4.5 and ICET mc values. Figure 4 (mid-left) shows the results. An important property of both ICET and ACT is their ability to compromise on accuracy when needed. ACT?s flexibility, however, is more noteworthy: from the least accurate method it becomes the most accurate one. Interestingly, when accuracy is extremely important both ICET and ACT achieves even better accuracy than C4.5. The reason is their non-greedy nature. ICET performs an implicit lookahead by reweighting attributes according to their importance. ACT performs lookahead by sampling the space of subtrees under every split. Among the two, the results indicates that ACT?s lookahead is more efficient in terms of accuracy. We also compared ACT to LSID3. As expected, ACT was significantly better for mc ? 1000. For mc = 10000 their performance was similar. In addition, we compared the studied methods on nonuniform misclassification costs and found ACT?s advantage to be consistent. 3.3 Anytime Comparison Both ICET and ACT are anytime algorithms that improve their performance with time. ICET is expected to exploit extra time by producing more generations and hence better tuning the parameters for the final invocation of EG2. ACT can use additional time to acquire larger samples and hence achieve better cost estimations. A typical anytime algorithm would produce improved results with the increase in resources. The improvements diminish with time, reaching a stable performance. To examine the anytime behavior of ICET and ACT, we run each of them on 2 problems, namely Breast-cancer-20 and Multi-XOR-80, with exponentially increasing time allocation. ICET was run with 2, 4, 8 . . . generations and ACT with a sample size of 1, 2, 4, . . .. Figure 4 plots the results. The results show a good anytime behavior of both ICET and ACT. For both algorithms, it is worthwhile to allocate more time. ACT dominates ICET for both domains and is able to produce trees of lower costs in shorter time. The Multi-XOR dataset is an example for a concept with attributes being important only in one sub-concept. As we expected, ACT outperforms ICET significantly because the latter cannot assign context-based costs. Allowing ICET to produce more and more generations (up to 128) does not result in trees comparable to those obtained by ACT. 4 Conclusions Machine learning techniques are increasingly being used to produce a wide-range of classifiers for real-world applications that involve nonuniform testing costs and misclassification costs. As the complexity of these applications grows, the management of resources during the learning and classification processes becomes a challenging task. In this work we introduced a novel framework for operating in such environments. Our framework has 4 major advantages: (1) it uses a non-greedy approach to build a decision tree and therefore is able to overcome local minima problems, (2) it evaluates entire trees and therefore can be adjusted to any cost scheme that is defined over trees. (3) it exhibits good anytime behavior and produces significantly better trees when more time is available, and (4) it can be easily parallelized and hence can benefit from distributed computer power. 7 To evaluate ACT we have designed an extensive set of experiments with a wide range of costs. The experimental results show that ACT is superior over ICET and EG2. Significance tests found the differences to be statistically strong. ACT also exhibited good anytime behavior: with the increase in time allocation, there was a decrease in the cost of the learned models. ACT is a contract anytime algorithm that requires its sample size to be pre-determined. In the future we intend to convert ACT into an interruptible anytime algorithm, by adopting the IIDT general framework [11]. In addition, we plan to apply monitoring techniques for optimal scheduling of ACT and to examine other strategies for evaluating subtrees. References [1] N. Abe, B. Zadrozny, and J. Langford. An iterative method for multi-class cost-sensitive learning. In KDD, 2004. [2] V. Bayer-Zubek and Dietterich. Integrating learning from examples into the search for diagnostic policies. Artificial Intelligence, 24:263?303, 2005. [3] C. L. Blake and C. J. Merz. UCI repository of machine learning databases, 1998. [4] A. Blumer, A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, and M. K. Warmuth. Occam?s Razor. Information Processing Letters, 24(6):377?380, 1987. [5] M. Boddy and T. L. Dean. Deliberation scheduling for problem solving in time constrained environments. Artificial Intelligence, 67(2):245?285, 1994. [6] J. Bradford, C. Kunz, R. Kohavi, C. Brunk, and C. Brodley. Pruning decision trees with misclassification costs. In ECML, 1998. [7] L. Breiman, J. Friedman, R. Olshen, and C. Stone. Classification and Regression Trees. Wadsworth and Brooks, Monterey, CA, 1984. [8] J. Demsar. Statistical comparisons of classifiers over multiple data sets. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1?30, 2006. [9] P. Domingos. Metacost: A general method for making classifiers cost-sensitive. In KDD, 1999. [10] C. Elkan. The foundations of cost-sensitive learning. In IJCAI, 2001. [11] S. Esmeir and S. Markovitch. Anytime learning of decision trees. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8, 2007. [12] R. Greiner, A. J. Grove, and D. Roth. Learning cost-sensitive active classifiers. Artificial Intelligence, 139(2):137?174, 2002. [13] T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman. The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2001. [14] D. Margineantu. Active cost-sensitive learning. In IJCAI, 2005. [15] P. Melville, M. Saar-Tsechansky, F. Provost, and R. J. Mooney. Active feature acquisition for classifier induction. In ICDM, 2004. [16] S. W. Norton. Generating better decision trees. In IJCAI, 1989. [17] M. Nunez. The use of background knowledge in decision tree induction. Machine Learning, 6:231?250, 1991. [18] F. Provost and B. Buchanan. Inductive policy: The pragmatics of bias selection. Machine Learning, 20(1-2):35?61, 1995. [19] Z. Qin, S. Zhang, and C. Zhang. Cost-sensitive decision trees with multiple cost scales. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, AI, Volume 3339/2004:380?390, 2004. [20] J. R. Quinlan. C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning. Morgan Kaufmann, 1993. [21] S. Sheng, C. X. Ling, A. Ni, and S. Zhang. Cost-sensitive test strategies. In AAAI, 2006. [22] M. Tan and J. C. Schlimmer. Cost-sensitive concept learning of sensor use in approach and recognition. In Proceedings of the 6th international workshop on Machine Learning, 1989. [23] P. Turney. Types of cost in inductive concept learning. In Workshop on Cost-Sensitive Learning at ICML, 2000. [24] P. D. Turney. Cost-sensitive classification: Empirical evaluation of a hybrid genetic decision tree induction algorithm. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2:369?409, 1995. 8
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Estimating divergence functionals and the likelihood ratio by penalized convex risk minimization XuanLong Nguyen SAMSI & Duke University Martin J. Wainwright UC Berkeley Michael I. Jordan UC Berkeley Abstract We develop and analyze an algorithm for nonparametric estimation of divergence functionals and the density ratio of two probability distributions. Our method is based on a variational characterization of f -divergences, which turns the estimation into a penalized convex risk minimization problem. We present a derivation of our kernel-based estimation algorithm and an analysis of convergence rates for the estimator. Our simulation results demonstrate the convergence behavior of the method, which compares favorably with existing methods in the literature. 1 Introduction An important class of ?distances? between multivariate probability distributions P and Q are the AliSilvey or f -divergences [1, 6]. These divergences, to be defined formally in the sequel, are all of the R form D? (P, Q) = ?(dQ/dP)dP, where ? is a convex function of the likelihood ratio. This family, including the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and the variational distance as special cases, plays an important role in various learning problems, including classification, dimensionality reduction, feature selection and independent component analysis. For all of these problems, if f -divergences are to be used as criteria of merit, one has to be able to estimate them efficiently from data. With this motivation, the focus of paper is the problem of estimating an f -divergence based on i.i.d. samples from each of the distributions P and Q. Our starting point is a variational characterization of f -divergences, which allows our problem to be tackled via an M -estimation procedure. Specifically, the likelihood ratio function dP/dQ and the divergence functional D? (P, Q) can be estimated by solving a convex minimization problem over a function class. In this paper, we estimate the likelihood ratio and the KL divergence by optimizing a penalized convex risk. In particular, we restrict the estimate to a bounded subset of a reproducing kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) [17]. The RKHS is sufficiently rich for many applications, and also allows for computationally efficient optimization procedures. The resulting estimator is nonparametric, in that it entails no strong assumptions on the form of P and Q, except that the likelihood ratio function is assumed to belong to the RKHS. The bulk of this paper is devoted to the derivation of the algorithm, and a theoretical analysis of the performance of our estimator. The key to our analysis is a basic inequality relating a performance metric (the Hellinger distance) of our estimator to the suprema of two empirical processes (with respect to P and Q) defined on a function class of density ratios. Convergence rates are then obtained using techniques for analyzing nonparametric M -estimators from empirical process theory [20]. Related work. The variational representation of divergences has been derived independently and exploited by several authors [5, 11, 14]. Broniatowski and Keziou [5] studied testing and estimation problems based on dual representations of f -divergences, but working in a parametric setting as opposed to the nonparametric framework considered here. Nguyen et al. [14] established a one-to-one correspondence between the family of f -divergences and the family of surrogate loss functions [2], through which the (optimum) ?surrogate risk? is equal to the negative of an associated f -divergence. Another link is to the problem of estimating integral functionals of a single density, with the Shannon entropy being a well-known example, which has been studied extensively dating back to early 1 work [9, 13] as well as the more recent work [3, 4, 12]. See also [7, 10, 8] for the problem of (Shannon) entropy functional estimation. In another branch of related work, Wang et al. [22] proposed an algorithm for estimating the KL divergence for continuous distributions, which exploits histogram-based estimation of the likelihood ratio by building data-dependent partitions of equivalent (empirical) Q-measure. The estimator was empirically shown to outperform direct plug-in methods, but no theoretical results on its convergence rate were provided. This paper is organized as follows. Sec. 2 provides a background of f -divergences. In Sec. 3, we describe an estimation procedure based on penalized risk minimization and accompanying convergence rates analysis results. In Sec. 4, we derive and implement efficient algorithms for solving these problems using RKHS. Sec. 5 outlines the proof of the analysis. In Sec. 6, we illustrate the behavior of our estimator and compare it to other methods via simulations. 2 Background We begin by defining f -divergences, and then provide a variational representation of the f divergence, which we later exploit to develop an M -estimator. Consider two distributions P and Q, both assumed to be absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure ?, with positive densities p0 and q0 , respectively, on some compact domain X ? Rd . The class of Ali-Silvey or f -divergences [6, 1] are ?distances? of the form: Z D? (P, Q) = p0 ?(q0 /p0 ) d?, (1) ? is a convex function. Different choices of ? result in many divergences that play where ? : R ? R important roles in information theory and statistics, including the variational distance, Hellinger distance, KL divergence and so on (see, e.g., [19]). As an important example, the Kullback-Leibler R (KL) divergence between P and Q is given by DK (P, Q) = p0 log(p0 /q0 ) d?, corresponding to the choice ?(t) = ? log(t) for t > 0 and +? otherwise. Variational representation: Since ? is a convex function, by Legendre-Fenchel convex duality [16] we can write ?(u) = supv?R (uv ? ?? (v)), where ?? is the convex conjugate of ?. As a result, ?Z ? Z Z ? ? D? (P, Q) = p0 sup(f q0 /p0 ? ? (f )) d? = sup f dQ ? ? (f ) dP , f f R where the supremum is taken over all measurable functions f : X ? R, and f dP denotes the expectation of f under distribution P. Denoting by ?? the subdifferential [16] of the convex function ?, it can be shown that the supremum will be achieved for functions f such that q0 /p0 ? ??? (f ), where q0 , p0 and f are evaluated at any x ? X . By convex duality [16], this is true if f ? ??(q0 /p0 ) for any x ? X . Thus, we have proved [15, 11]: Lemma 1. Letting F be any function class in X ? R, there holds: Z D? (P, Q) ? sup f dQ ? ?? (f ) dP, (2) f ?F with equality if F ? ??(q0 /p0 ) 6= ?. To illustrate this result in the special case of the KL divergence, here the function ? has the form ?(u) = ? log(u) for u > 0 and +? for u ? 0. The convex dual of ? is ?? (v) = supu (uv??(u)) = ?1 ? log(?v) if u < 0 and +? otherwise. By Lemma 1, Z Z Z Z DK (P, Q) = sup f dQ ? (?1 ? log(?f )) dP = sup log g dP ? gdQ + 1. (3) g>0 f <0 In addition, the supremum is attained at g = p0 /q0 . 3 Penalized M-estimation of KL divergence and the density ratio Let X1 , . . . , Xn be a collection of n i.i.d. samples from the distribution Q, and let Y1 , . . . , Yn be n i.i.d. samples drawn from the distribution P. Our goal is to develop an estimator of the KL divergence and the density ratio g0 = p0 /q0 based on the samples {Xi }ni=1 and {Yi }ni=1 . 2 The variational representation in Lemma 1 motivates the following estimator of the KL divergence. First, let G be a function class of X ? R+ . We then compute Z Z ? K = sup log g dPn ? gdQn + 1, D (4) g?G R R where dPn and dQn denote the expectation under empirical measures Pn and Qn , respectively. If the supremum is attained at g?n , then g?n serves as an estimator of the density ratio g0 = p0 /q0 . In practice, the ?true? size of G is not known. Accordingly, our approach in this paper is an alternative approach based on controlling the size of G by using penalties. More precisely, let I(g) be a non-negative measure of complexity for g such that I(g0 ) < ?. We decompose the function class G as follows: G = ?1?M ?? GM , (5) where GM := {g | I(g) ? M } is a ball determined by I(?). The estimation procedure involves solving the following program: Z Z ?n 2 g?n = argming?G gdQn ? log g dPn + I (g), 2 (6) where ?n > 0 is a regularization parameter. The minimizing argument g?n is plugged into (4) to obtain an estimate of the KL divergence DK . ? K ? DK (P, Q)| is a natural performance measure. For For the KL divergence, the difference |D estimating the density ratio, various metrics are possible. Viewing g0 = p0 /q0 as a density function with respect to Q measure, one useful metric is the (generalized) Hellinger distance: Z 1 1/2 h2Q (g0 , g) := (g0 ? g 1/2 )2 dQ. (7) 2 For the analysis, several assumptions are in order. First, assume that g0 (not all of G) is bounded from above and below: 0 < ?0 ? g0 ? ?1 for some constants ?0 , ?1 . (8) Next, the uniform norm of GM is Lipchitz with respect to the penalty measure I(g), i.e.: sup |g|? ? cM for any M ? 1. (9) g?GM Finally, on the bracket entropy of G [21]: For some 0 < ? < 2, H?B (GM , L2 (Q)) = O(M/?)? for any ? > 0. (10) The following is our main theoretical result, whose proof is given in Section 5: Theorem 2. (a) Under assumptions (8), (9) and (10), and letting ?n ? 0 so that: 2/(2+?) ??1 )(1 + I(g0 )), n = OP (n then under P: hQ (g0 , g?n ) = OP (?1/2 n )(1 + I(g0 )), I(? gn ) = OP (1 + I(g0 )). (b) If, in addition to (8), (9) and (10), there holds inf g?G g(x) ? ?0 for any x ? X , then ? K ? DK (P, Q)| = OP (?1/2 )(1 + I(g0 )). |D n 4 (11) Algorithm: Optimization and dual formulation G is an RKHS. Our algorithm involves solving program (6), for some choice of function class G. In our implementation, relevant function classes are taken to be a reproducing kernel Hilbert space induced by a Gaussian kernel. The RKHS?s are chosen because they are sufficiently rich [17], and as in many learning tasks they are quite amenable to efficient optimization procedures [18]. 3 Let K : X ? X ? R be a Mercer kernel function [17]. Thus, K is associated with a feature map ? : X ? H, where H is a Hilbert space with inner product h., .i and for all x, x0 ? X , K(x, x0 ) = h?(x), ?(x0 )i. As a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, any function g ? H can be expressed as an inner product g(x) = hw, ?(x)i, where kgkH = kwkH . A kernel used in our simulation is the Gaussian kernel: K(x, y) := e?kx?yk 2 /? , where k.k is the Euclidean metric in Rd , and ? > 0 is a parameter for the function class. Let G := H, and let the complexity measure be I(g) = kgkH . Thus, Eq. (6) becomes: n n 1X 1X ?n min J := min hw, ?(xi )i ? loghw, ?(yj )i + kwk2H , w w n n 2 i=1 j=1 (12) where {xi } and {yj } are realizations of empirical data drawn from Q and P, respectively. The log function is extended take value ?? for negative arguments. Lemma 3. minw J has the following dual form: ?min ?>0 n X 1 1 1 X 1 X 1 X ? ? log n?j + ?i ?j K(yi , yj )+ K(xi , xj )? ?j K(xi , yj ). 2 n n 2?n i,j 2?n n i,j ?n n i,j j=1 Proof. Let ?i (w) := min J w 1 n hw, ?(xi )i, ?j (w) := ? n1 loghw, ?(yj )i, and ?(w) = = ? max(h0, wi ? J(w)) = ?J ? (0) ?n 2 2 kwkH . We have w = ? min ui ,vj n X ?i? (ui ) + i=1 n X ??j (vj ) + ?? (? j=1 n X i=1 ui ? n X vj ), j=1 where the last line is due to the inf-convolution theorem [16]. Simple calculations yield: 1 1 ? log n?j if v = ??j ?(yj ) and + ? otherwise n n 1 ? ?i (u) = 0 if u = ?(xi ) and + ? otherwise n 1 ? 2 ? (v) = kvkH . 2?n Pn Pn Pn So, minw J = ? min?i j=1 (? n1 ? n1 log n?j )+ 2?1n k j=1 ?j ?(yj )? n1 i=1 ?(xi )k2H , which implies the lemma immediately. ??j (v) = ? If ? ? is solution it is not difficult to show that the optimal w ? is attained at Pn of the dual formulation, Pn w ? = ?1n ( j=1 ? ? j ?(yj ) ? n1 i=1 ?(xi )). For an RKHS based on a Gaussian kernel, the entropy condition (10) holds for any ? > 0 [23]. Furthermore, (9) trivially p holds via the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality: |g(x)| = |hw, ?(x)i| ? kwkH k?(x)kH ? I(g) K(x, x) ? I(g). Thus, by Theorem 2(a), kwk ? H = k? gn kH = OP (kg0 kH ), so the penalty term ?n kwk ? 2 vanishes at the same rate as ?n . We have arrived at the following estimator for the KL divergence: ?K = 1 + D n X j=1 n (? X 1 1 1 ? log n? ?j ) = ? log n? ?j . n n n j=1 log G is an RKHS. Alternatively, we could set log G to be the RKHS, letting g(x) = exphw, ?(x)i, and letting I(g) = k log gkH = kwkH . Theorem 2 is not applicable in this case, because condition (9) no longer holds, but this choice nonetheless seems reasonable and worth investigating, because in effect we have a far richer function class which might improve the bias of our estimator when the true density ratio is not very smooth. 4 A derivation similar to the previous case yields the following convex program: n min J w n 1 X hw, ?(xi )i 1 X ?n e ? hw, ?(yj )i + kwk2H n i=1 n j=1 2 := min = n n 1X 1 X ?i ?(xi ) ? ?(yj )k2H . ? min ?i log(n?i ) ? ?i + k ?>0 2?n i=1 n j=1 i=1 w n X Letting ? ? be the solution of the above convex program, the KL divergence can be estimated by: ?K = 1 + D n X ? ? i log ? ?i + ? ? i log i=1 5 n . e Proof of Theorem 2 We now sketch out the proof of the main theorem. The key to our analysis is the following lemma: Lemma 4. If g?n is an estimate of g using (6), then: Z Z ?n 2 g?n + g0 ?n 2 1 2 h (g0 , g?n ) + I (? gn ) ? ? (? gn ? g0 )d(Qn ? Q) + 2 log I (g0 ). d(Pn ? P) + 4 Q 2 2g0 2 R ? Proof. Define dl (g0 , g) = (g ? g0 )dQ ? log gg0 dP. Note that for x > 0, 12 log x ? x ? 1. Thus, R R ?1/2 log gg0 dP ? 2 (g 1/2 g0 ? 1) dP. As a result, for any g, dl is related to hQ as follows: Z Z ?1/2 dl (g0 , g) ? (g ? g0 ) dQ ? 2 (g 1/2 g0 ? 1) dP Z Z Z 1/2 1/2 = (g ? g0 ) dQ ? 2 (g 1/2 g0 ? g0 ) dQ = (g 1/2 ? g0 )2 dQ = 2h2Q (g0 , g). By the definition (6) of our estimator, we have: Z Z Z Z ?n 2 ?n 2 g?n dQn ? log g?n dPn + I (? gn ) ? g0 dQn ? log g0 dPn + I (g0 ). 2 2 Both sides (modulo the regularization term I 2 ) are convex functionals of g. By Jensen?s inequality, if F is a convex function, then F ((u + v)/2) ? F (v) ? (F (u) ? F (v))/2. We obtain: Z Z Z Z g?n + g0 g?n + g0 ?n 2 ?n 2 dQn ? log dPn + I (? gn ) ? g0 dQn ? log g0 dPn + I (g0 ). 2 2 4 4 R R 0 0 Rearranging, g?n ?g d(Qn ? Q) ? log g?n2g+g d(Pn ? P) + ?4n I 2 (? gn ) ? 2 0 g?n ? g0 ?n 2 g0 + g?n ?n 2 dQ + I (g0 ) = ?dl (g0 , )+ I (g0 ) 2 4 2 4 g0 + g?n ?n 2 1 ?n 2 ? ?2h2Q (g0 , )+ I (g0 ) ? ? h2Q (g0 , g?n ) + I (g0 ), 2 4 8 4 where the last inequality is a standard result for the (generalized) Hellinger distance (cf. [20]). Z log g?n + g0 dP ? 2g0 Z 0 Let us now proceed to part (a) of the theorem. Define fg := log g+g 2g0 , and let FM := {fg |g ? GM }. Since fg is a Lipschitz function of g, conditions (8) and (10) imply that H?B (FM , L2 (P)) = O(M/?)? . (13) Apply Lemma 5.14 of [20] using distance metric d2 (g0 , g) = kg ? g0 kL2 (Q) , the following is true under Q (and so true under P as well, since dP/dQ is bounded from above), R | (g ? g0 )d(Qn ? Q)| sup = OP (1). (14) 2 1??/2 g?G n?1/2 d2 (g0 , g) (1 + I(g) + I(g0 ))?/2 ? n? 2+? (1 + I(g) + I(g0 )) 5 In the same vein, we obtain that under P measure: R | fg d(Pn ? P)| sup = OP (1). 2 1??/2 g?G n?1/2 d2 (g0 , g) (1 + I(g) + I(g0 ))?/2 ? n? 2+? (1 + I(g) + I(g0 )) (15) By condition (9), we have: d2 (g0 , g) = kg ? g0 kL2 (Q) ? 2c1/2 (1 + I(g) + I(g0 ))1/2 hQ (g0 , g). Combining Lemma 4 and Eqs. (15), (14), we obtain the following: 1 2 ?n 2 hQ (g0 , g?n ) + I (? gn ) ? ?n I(g0 )2 /2+ 4 2 ? ? 2 OP n?1/2 hQ (g0 , g)1??/2 (1 + I(g) + I(g0 ))1/2+?/4 ? n? 2+? (1 + I(g) + I(g0 )) . (16) From this point, the proof involves simple algebraic manipulation of (16). To simplify notation, let ? = hQ (g0 , g?n ), I? = I(? h gn ), and I0 = I(g0 ). There are four possibilities: ? ? n?1/(2+?) (1 + I? + I0 )1/2 and I? ? 1 + I0 . From (16), either Case a. h ? 2 /4 + ?n I?2 /2 ? OP (n?1/2 )h ? 1??/2 I?1/2+?/4 or h ? 2 /4 + ?n I?2 /2 ? ?n I 2 /2, h 0 which implies, respectively, either ? ? ??1/2 OP (n?2/(2+?) ), h n ?2/(2+?) I? ? ??1 ) or n OP (n ? ? OP (?1/2 I0 ), h n I? ? OP (I0 ). 2/(?+2) Both scenarios conclude the proof if we set ??1 (1 + I0 )). n = OP (n ? ? n?1/(2+?) (1 + I? + I0 )1/2 and I? < 1 + I0 . From (16), either Case b. h ? 2 /4 + ?n I?2 /2 ? OP (n?1/2 )h ? 1??/2 (1 + I0 )1/2+?/4 or h ? 2 /4 + ?n I?2 /2 ? ?n I 2 /2, h 0 which implies, respectively, either ? ? (1 + I0 )1/2 OP (n?1/(?+2) ), h ? ? OP (?1/2 I0 ), h n I? ? 1 + I0 or I? ? OP (I0 ). 2/(?+2) Both scenarios conclude the proof if we set ??1 (1 + I0 )). n = OP (n ? ? n?1/(2+?) (1 + I? + I0 )1/2 and I? ? 1 + I0 . From (16) Case c. h ? 2 /4 + ?n I?2 /2 ? OP (n?2/(2+?) )I, ? h ? ? OP (n?1/(2+?) )I?1/2 and I? ? ??1 OP (n?2/(2+?) ). This means that h ? ? which implies that h n 1/2 ?1 2/(2+?) ? OP (?n )(1 + I0 ), I ? OP (1 + I0 ) if we set ?n = OP (n )(1 + I0 ). ? ? n?1/(2+?) (1 + I? + I0 )1/2 and I? ? 1 + I0 . Part (a) of the theorem is immediate. Case d. h Finally, part (b) is a simple consequence of part (a) using the same argument as in Thm. 9 of [15]. 6 Simulation results In this section, we describe the results of various simulations that demonstrate the practical viability of our estimators, as well as their convergence behavior. We experimented with our estimators using various choices of P and Q, including Gaussian, beta, mixture of Gaussians, and multivariate Gaussian distributions. Here we report results in terms of KL estimation error. For each of the eight estimation problems described here, we experiment with increasing sample sizes (the sample size, n, ranges from 100 to 104 or more). Error bars are obtained by replicating each set-up 250 times. For all simulations, we report our estimator?s performance using the simple fixed rate ?n ? 1/n, noting that this may be a suboptimal rate. We set the kernel width to be relatively small (? = .1) for one-dimension data, and larger for higher dimensions. We use M1 to denote the method in which G is the RKHS, and M2 for the method in which log G is the RKHS. Our methods are compared to 6 Estimate of KL(1/2 N (0,1)+ 1/2 N (1,1),Unif[?5,5]) Estimate of KL(Beta(1,2),Unif[0,1]) t t 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.414624 M1, ? = .1, ? = 1/n M2, ? = 1, ? = .1/n 0.3 0.1 0.1931 M1, ? = .1, ? = 1/n M2, ? = .1, ? = .1/n 0 0.2 1/3 WKV, s = n 1/2 WKV, s = n 1/2 WKV, s = n 0.1 1/3 2/3 WKV, s = n ?0.1 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 WKV, s = n 0 50000 100 Estimate of KL(N (0,1),N (4,2)) t 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 Estimate of KL(N (4,2),N (0,1)) t t 2.5 t 6 5 2 4 3 1.5 2 1 1.9492 M1, ? = .1, ? = 1/n M2, ? = .1, ? = .1/n 0 0 WKV, s = n1/3 WKV, s = n1/2 WKV, s = n2/3 0.5 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 4.72006 M1, ? = 1, ? = .1/n M2, ? = 1, ? = .1/n 1 WKV, s = n1/4 WKV, s = n1/3 WKV, s = n1/2 ?1 ?2 10000 100 2 1000 t 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 500 2000 2 0.5 0.777712 M1, ? = .5, ? = .1/n M2, ? = .5, ? = .1/n 200 500 1000 2000 5000 2 WKV, n1/2 0 10000 100 3 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 Estimate of KL(N (0,I ),N (1,I )) Estimate of KL(N (0,I ),Unif[?3,3] ) t t WKV, n1/3 WKV, n1/2 100 10000 0.959316 M1, ? = .5, ? = .1/n M2, ? = .5, ? = .1/n WKV, n1/3 0 5000 Estimate of KL(N (0,I ),N (1,I )) Estimate of KL(N (0,I ),Unif[?3,3] ) t 200 t 3 3 t 3 2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1 1 0.8 1.16657 M1 ? = 1, ? = .1/n1/2 M2, ? = 1, ? = .1/n 0.5 0.6 0.2 WKV, n1/3 WKV, n1/2 0 100 200 500 1000 2000 1.43897 M1, ? = 1, ? = .1/n M2, ? = 1, ? = .1/n 0.4 M2, ? = 1, ? = .1/n2/3 WKV, n1/2 0 5000 ?0.2 10000 WKV, n1/3 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 10000 Figure 1. Results of estimating KL divergences for various choices of probability distributions. In all plots, the X-axis is the number of data points plotted on a log scale, and the Y-axis is the estimated value. The error bar is obtained by replicating the experiment 250 times. Nt (a, Ik ) denotes a truncated normal distribution of k dimensions with mean (a, . . . , a) and identity covariance matrix. 7 algorithm A in Wang et al [22], which was shown empirically to be one of the best methods in the literature. Their method, denoted by WKV, is based on data-dependent partitioning of the covariate space. Naturally, the performance of WKV is critically dependent on the amount s of data allocated to each partition; here we report results with s ? n? , where ? = 1/3, 1/2, 2/3. The first four plots present results with univariate distributions. In the first two, our estimators M 1 and M 2 appear to have faster convergence rate than WKV. The WKV estimator performs very well in the third example, but rather badly in the fourth example. The next four plots present results with two and three dimensional data. Again, M1 has the best convergence rates in all examples. The M2 estimator does not converge in the last example, suggesting that the underlying function class exhibits very strong bias. The WKV methods have weak convergence rates despite different choices of the partition sizes. It is worth noting that as one increases the number of dimensions, histogram based methods such as WKV become increasingly difficult to implement, whereas increasing dimension has only a mild effect on our method. References [1] S. M. Ali and S. D. Silvey. A general class of coefficients of divergence of one distribution from another. J. Royal Stat. Soc. Series B, 28:131?142, 1966. [2] P. L. Bartlett, M. I. Jordan, and J. D. McAuliffe. Convexity, classification, and risk bounds. 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Rockafellar. Convex Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1970. [17] S. Saitoh. Theory of Reproducing Kernels and its Applications. Longman, Harlow, UK, 1988. [18] B. Sch?olkopf and A. Smola. Learning with Kernels. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2002. [19] F. Topsoe. Some inequalities for information divergence and related measures of discrimination. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 46:1602?1609, 2000. [20] S. van de Geer. Empirical Processes in M-Estimation. Cambridge University Press, 2000. [21] A. W. van der Vaart and J. Wellner. Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, 1996. [22] Q. Wang, S. R. Kulkarni, and S. Verd?u. Divergence estimation of continuous distributions based on data-dependent partitions. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(9):3064?3074, 2005. [23] D. X. Zhou. The covering number in learning theory. Journal of Complexity, 18:739?767, 2002. 8
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SpAM: Sparse Additive Models Pradeep Ravikumar? Han Liu?? John Lafferty?? Larry Wasserman?? ? Machine Learning Department of Statistics ? Computer Science Department ? Department Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Abstract We present a new class of models for high-dimensional nonparametric regression and classification called sparse additive models (SpAM). Our methods combine ideas from sparse linear modeling and additive nonparametric regression. We derive a method for fitting the models that is effective even when the number of covariates is larger than the sample size. A statistical analysis of the properties of SpAM is given together with empirical results on synthetic and real data, showing that SpAM can be effective in fitting sparse nonparametric models in high dimensional data. 1 Introduction Substantial progress has been made recently on the problem of fitting high dimensional linear regression models of the form Yi = X iT ? + i , for i = 1, . . . , n. Here Yi is a real-valued response, X i is a p-dimensional predictor and i is a mean zero error term. Finding an estimate of ? when p > n that is both statistically well-behaved and computationally efficient has proved challenging; howb ever, the lasso estimator (Tibshirani (1996)) has been remarkably successful. The lasso estimator ? minimizes the `1 -penalized sums of squares p X X T (Yi ? X i ?) + ? |? j | i (1) j=1 bj are zero. The with the `1 penalty k?k1 encouraging sparse solutions, where many components ? good empirical success of this estimator has been recently backed up by results confirming that it has strong theoretical properties; see (Greenshtein and Ritov, 2004; Zhao and Yu, 2007; Meinshausen and Yu, 2006; Wainwright, 2006). The nonparametric regression model Yi = m(X i )+i , where m is a general smooth function, relaxes the strong assumptions made by a linear model, but is much more challenging in high dimensions. Hastie and Tibshirani (1999) introduced the class of additive models of the form Yi = p X j=1 m j (X i j ) + i (2) which is less general, but can be more interpretable and easier to fit; in particular, an additive model can be estimated using a coordinate descent Gauss-Seidel procedure called backfitting. An extension of the additive model is the functional ANOVA model X X X Yi = m j (X i j ) + m j,k (X i j , X ik ) + m j,k,` (X i j , X ik , X i` ) + ? ? ? + i (3) 1? j? p j<k j<k<` 1 which allows interactions among the variables. Unfortunately, additive models only have good statistical and computational behavior when the number of variables p is not large relative to the sample size n. In this paper we introduce sparse additive models (SpAM) that extend the advantages of sparse linear models to the additive, nonparametric setting. The underlying model is the same as in (2), but constraints are placed on the component functions {m j }1? j? p to simultaneously encourage smoothness of each component and sparsity across components; the penalty is similar to that used by the COSSO of Lin and Zhang (2006). The SpAM estimation procedure we introduce allows the use of arbitrary nonparametric smoothing techniques, and in the case where the underlying component functions are linear, it reduces to the lasso. It naturally extends to classification problems using generalized additive models. The main results of the paper are (i) the formulation of a convex optimization problem for estimating a sparse additive model, (ii) an efficient backfitting algorithm for constructing the estimator, (iii) simulations showing the estimator has excellent behavior on some simulated and real data, even when p is large, and (iv) a statistical analysis of the theoretical properties of the estimator that support its good empirical performance. 2 The SpAM Optimization Problem In this section we describe the key idea underlying SpAM. We first present a population version of the procedure that intuitively suggests how sparsity is achieved. We then present an equivalent convex optimization problem. In the following section we derive a backfitting procedure for solving this optimization problem in the finite sample setting. To motivate our approach, we first consider a formulation that scales each component function g j by a scalar ? j , and then imposes an `1 constraint on ? = (?1 , . . . , ? p )T . For j ? {1, . . . , p}, let H j denote the Hilbert space of measurable functions f j (x j ) of the single scalar variable x j , such that E( f j (X j )) = 0 and E( f j (X j )2 ) < ?, furnished with the inner product D E   f j , f j0 = E f j (X j ) f j0 (X j ) . (4) Let Hadd = H1 + H2 + . .P . , H p denote the Hilbert space of functions of (x1 , . . . , x p ) that have an additive form: f (x) = j f j (x j ). The standard additive model optimization problem, in the population setting, is 2  Pp (5) min E Y ? j=1 f j (X j ) f j ?H j , 1? j? p and m(x) = E(Y | X = x) is the unknown regression function. Now consider the following modification of this problem that imposes additional constraints: 2  Pp E Y ? j=1 ? j g j (X j ) (6a) (P) min ??R p ,g j ?H j subject to p X j=1 |? j | ? L   E g 2j = 1, j = 1, . . . , p  E g j = 0, j = 1, . . . , p (6b) (6c) (6d) noting that g j is a function while ? is a vector. Intuitively, the constraint that ? lies in the `1 -ball {? : k?k1 ? L} encourages sparsity of the estimated P p ?, just as for P pthe parametric lasso. When ? is sparse, the estimated additive function f (x) = j=1 f j (x j ) = j=1 ? j g j (x j ) will also be sparse, meaning that many of the component functions f j (?) = ? j g j (?) are identically zero. The constraints (6c) and (6c) are imposed for identifiability; without (6c), for example, one could always satisfy (6a) by rescaling. While this optimization problem makes plain the role `1 regularization of ? to achieve sparsity, it has the unfortunate drawback of not being convex. More specifically, while the optimization problem is convex in ? and {g j } separately, it is not convex in ? and {g j } jointly. 2 However, consider the following related optimization problem:  2 Pp (Q) min E Y ? j=1 f j (X j ) f j ?H j subject to p q X j=1 E( f j2 (X j )) ? L (7a) (7b) E( f j ) = 0, j = 1, . . . , p. (7c) This problem is convex in { f j }. Moreover, the solutions to problems (P) and (Q) are equivalent: n o n o n o ? ?j , g ?j optimizes (P) implies f j? = ? ?j g ?j optimizes (Q); n o n o n o f j? optimizes (Q) implies ? ?j = (k f j k2 )T , g ?j = f j? /k f j? k optimizes (P). 2 While optimization problem (Q) has the important virtue of being convex, the way it encourages 4 sparsity is not intuitive; the following observation provides some insight. Consider  the set C ? R  q q 2 + f2 + 2 + f 2 ? L . Then the projecf 21 defined by C = ( f 11 , f 12 , f 21 , f 22 )T ? R4 : f 11 12 22 tion ?12 C onto the first two components is an `2 ball. However, the projection ?13P C onto the first and third components is an `1 ball. In this way, it can be seen that the constraint j f j 2 ? L acts as an `1 constraint across components to encourage sparsity, while it acts as an `2 constraint within components to encourage smoothness, as in a ridge regression penalty. It is thus crucial that 2 the norm f j 2 appears in the constraint, and not its square f j 2 . For the purposes of sparsity, P this constraint could be replaced by j f j q ? L for any q ? 1. In case each f j is linear, ( f j (x1 j ), . . . , f (xn j )) = ? j (x1 j , . . . , xn j ), the optimization problem reduces to the lasso. The use of scaling coefficients together with a nonnegative garrote penalty, similar to our problem (P), is considered by Yuan (2007). However, the component functions g j are fixed, so that the procedure is not asymptotically consistent. The form of the optimization problem (Q) is similar to that of the COSSO for smoothing spline ANOVA models (Lin and Zhang, 2006); however, our method differs significantly from the COSSO, as discussed below. In particular, our method is scalable and easy to implement even when p is much larger than n. 3 A Backfitting Algorithm for SpAM We now derive a coordinate descent algorithm for fitting a sparse additive model. We assume that we observe Y = m(X ) + , where  is mean zero Gaussian noise. We write the Lagrangian for the optimization problem (Q) as p q 2 X X Pp 1  L( f, ?, ?) = E Y ? j=1 f j (X j ) + ? E( f j2 (X j )) + ? j E( f j ). (8) 2 j j=1 P Let R j = Y ? k6= j f k (X k ) be the jth residual. The stationary condition for minimizing L as a function of f j , holding the other components f k fixed for k 6= j, is expressed in terms of the Frechet derivative ?L as   ?L( f, ?, ?; ? f j ) = E ( f j ? R j + ?v j )? f j = 0 (9) q for any ? f j ? H j satisfying E(? f j ) = 0, where v j ? ? E( f j2 ) is an element of the subgradient, q .q E( f j2 ) if E( f j2 ) 6= 0. Therefore, conditioning on X j , the satisfying Ev 2j ? 1 and v j = f j stationary condition (9) implies f j + ?v j = E(R j | X j ). (10) Letting P j = E[R j | X j ] denote the projection of the residual onto H j , the solution satisfies ? ? ?1 + q ? ? f j = P j if E(P j2 ) > ? (11) 2 E( f j ) 3 Input: Data (X i , Yi ), regularization parameter ?. (0) Initialize f j = f j , for j = 1, . . . , p. Iterate until convergence: For each j = 1, . . . , p: P Compute the residual: R j = Y ? k6= j f k (X k ); bj = S j R j ; Estimate the projection P j = E[R j | X j ] by smoothing: P q Estimate the norm s j = E[P j ]2 using, for example, (15) or (35);   ? bj ; Soft-threshold: f j = 1 ? P b sj + Center: f j ? f j ? mean( f j ). P Output: Component functions f j and estimator m b(X i ) = j f j (X i j ). Figure 1: T HE S PAM BACKFITTING A LGORITHM and f j = 0 otherwise. Condition (11), in turn, implies ? ? q q ? ? E( f 2 ) = E(P 2 ) or ?1 + q j j E( f j2 ) q E( f j2 ) = q E(P j2 ) ? ?. Thus, we arrive at the following multiplicative soft-thresholding update for f j : ? ? ? ? Pj f j = ?1 ? q E(P j2 ) (12) (13) + where [?]+ denotes the positive part. In the finite sample case, as in standard backfitting (Hastie and Tibshirani, 1999), we estimate the projection E[R j | X j ] by a smooth of the residuals: bj = S j R j P (14) where S j is a linear smoother, such as a local linear or kernel smoother. Let b s j be an estimate of q 2 E[P j ]. A simple but biased estimate is q 1 b b2 ). b s j = ? kP j k2 = mean( P j n (15) More accurate estimators are possible; an example is given in the appendix. We have thus derived the SpAM backfitting algorithm given in Figure 1. While the motivating optimization problem (Q) is similar to that considered in the COSSO (Lin and Zhang, 2006) for smoothing splines, the SpAM backfitting algorithm decouples smoothing and sparsity, through a combination of soft-thresholding and smoothing. In particular, SpAM backfitting can be carried out with any nonparametric smoother; it is not restricted to splines. Moreover, by iteratively estimating over the components and using soft thresholding, our procedure is simple to implement and scales to high dimensions. 3.1 SpAM for Nonparametric Logistic Regression The SpAM backfitting procedure can be extended to nonparametric logistic regression for classification. The additive logistic model is P  p exp f (X ) j j j=1 P  P(Y = 1 | X ) ? p(X ; f ) = (16) p 1 + exp f (X ) j j j=1 4   where Y ? {0, 1}, and the population log-likelihood is `( f ) = E Y f (X ) ? log (1 + exp f (X )) . Recall that in the local scoring algorithm for generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani, 1999) in the logistic case, one runs the backfitting procedure within Newton?s method. Here one iteratively computes the transformed response for the current estimate f 0 Yi ? p(X i ; f 0 ) Z i = f 0 (X i ) + (17) p(X i ; f 0 )(1 ? p(X i ; f 0 )) and weights w(X i ) = p(X i ; f 0 )(1 ? p(X i ; f 0 ), and carries out a weighted backfitting of (Z , X ) with weights w. The weighted smooth is given by S (w R j ) bj = j P . (18) Sjw To incorporate the sparsity penalty, we first note that the Lagrangian is given by p q X X   E( f j2 (X j )) + ? j E( f j ) (19) L( f, ?, ?) = E log (1 + exp f (X )) ? Y f (X ) + ? j=1  j and the stationary condition for component function f j is E p ? Y | X j + ?v j = 0 where v j is an q element of the subgradient ? E( f j2 ). As in the unregularized case, this condition is nonlinear in f , and of the log-likelihood around f 0 . This yields the linearized condition  so we linearize the gradient  E w(X )( f (X ) ? Z ) | X j + ?v j = 0. When E( f j2 ) 6= 0, this implies the condition ? ?  ? ?E w | X j + q ? f j (X j ) = E(w R j | X j ). (20) 2 E( f j ) In the finite sample case, in terms of the smoothing matrix S j , this becomes S j (w R j ) .q . fj = Sjw + ? E( f j2 ) (21) If kS j (w R j )k2 < ?, then f j = 0. Otherwise, this implicit, nonlinear equation for f j cannot be solved explicitly, so we propose to iterate until convergence: S j (w R j ) fj ? . (22) ?  S j w + ? n k f j k2 When ? = 0, this yields the standard local scoring update (18). An example of logistic SpAM is given in Section 5. 4 4.1 Properties of SpAM SpAM is Persistent The notion of risk consistency, or persistence, was studied by Juditsky and Nemirovski (2000) and Greenshtein and Ritov (2004) in the context of linear models. Let (X, Y ) denote a new pair (independent of the observed data) and define the predictive risk when predicting Y with f (X ) by R( f ) = E(Y ? f (X ))2 . (23) P Since we consider predictors of the form f (x) = ? g (x ) we also write the risk as R(?, g) j j j j where ? = (?1 , . . . , ? p ) and g = (g1 , . . . , g p ). Following Greenshtein and Ritov (2004), we say that an estimator m bn is persistent relative to a class of functions Mn if P R(b m n ) ? R(m ?n ) ? 0 (24) ? where m n = argmin f ?Mn R( f ) is the predictive oracle. Greenshtein and Ritov (2004) showed that the lasso is persistent for the class of linear models Mn = { f (x) = x T ? : k?k1 ? L n } if L n = o((n/ log n)1/4 ). We show a similar result for SpAM. ? Theorem 4.1. Suppose that pnn ? en for some ? < 1. Then SpAM ois persistent relative to the  Pp class of additive models Mn = f (x) = j=1 ? j g j (x j ) : k?k1 ? L n if L n = o n (1?? )/4 . 5 4.2 SpAM is Sparsistent In the case of linear regression, with m j (X j ) = ? Tj X j , Wainwright (2006) shows that under certain conditions on n, p, s = |supp(?)|, and the design matrix X , the lasso recovers the sparsity pattern  bn is sparsistent: P supp(?) = supp(? bn ) ? 1. We asymptotically; that is, the lasso estimator ? show a similar result for SpAM with the sparse backfitting procedure. For the purpose of analysis, we use orthogonal function regression as the smoothing procedure. For each j = 1, . . . , p let ? j be an orthogonal basis for H j . We truncate the basis to finite dimension dn , and let dn ? ? such that dn /n ? 0. Let 9 j denote the n ? d matrix 9 j (i, k) = ? jk (X i j ). If A ? {1, . . . , p}, we denote by 9 A the n ? d|A| matrix where for each i ? A, 9i appears as a submatrix in the natural way. The SpAM optimization problem can then be written as p r 2 X Pp 1  1 T T min Y ? j=1 9 j ? j + ?n ? 9 9j?j (25) ? 2n n j j j=1 where each ? j is a d-dimensional vector. Let S denote the true set of variables {j : m j 6= 0}, with bj 6= 0} denote the estimated set of s = |S|, and let S c denote its complement. Let b Sn = {j : ? b variables from the minimizer ?n of (25). Theorem 4.2. Suppose that 9 satisfies the conditions     1 T 1 T 9 S 9 S ? Cmax < ? and 3min 9 S 9 S ? Cmin > 0 3max n n s 2     ?1 1 T ?? ? Cmin 1? 9 c 9S 1 9 T 9S , for some 0 < ? ? 1 n S n S Cmax s 2 Let the regularization parameter ?n ? 0 be chosen to satisfy p s dn (log dn + log( p ? s)) ?n sdn ? 0, ? 0. ? 0, and dn ?n n?2n  Then SpAM is sparsistent: P b Sn = S ?? 1. 5 (26) (27) (28) Experiments In this section we present experimental results for SpAM applied to both synthetic and real data, including regression and classification examples that illustrate the behavior of the algorithm in various conditions. We first use simulated data to investigate the performance of the SpAM backfitting algorithm, where the true sparsity pattern is known. We then apply SpAM to some real data. If not explicitly stated otherwise, the data are always rescaled to lie in a d-dimensional cube [0, 1]d , and a kernel smoother with Gaussian kernel is used. To tune the penalization parameter ?, we use a C p statistic, which is defined as p n 2 2b Pp 1 X ?2 X C p( b f) = Yi ? j=1 b f j (X j ) + trace(S j ) 1[ b f j 6= 0] (29) n n i=1 j=1 where S j is the smoothing matrix for the j-th dimension and b ? 2 is the estimated variance. 5.1 Simulations We first apply SpAM to an example from (H?rdle et al., 2004). A dataset with sample size n = 150 is generated from the following 200-dimensional additive model: Yi = f 1 (xi1 ) + f 2 (xi2 ) + f 3 (xi3 ) + f 4 (xi4 ) + i 2 f 1 (x) = ?2 sin(2x), f 2 (x) = x ? 1 3, f 3 (x) = x ? 1 2, f 4 (x) = e?x + e?1 ? 1 (30) (31) and f j (x) = 0 for j ? 5 with noise i ? N (0, 1). These data therefore have 196 irrelevant dimensions. The results of applying SpAM with the plug-in bandwidths are summarized in Figure 2. 6 1.0 14 0.8 prob. of correct recovery 12 0.6 0.5 p=256 0.2 6 0.0 4 2 0.0 0.1 194 9 94 2 0.2 0.4 8 0.3 4 3 Cp 0.6 0.4 10 Component Norms p=128 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 110 130 150 sample size zero zero 0.4 0.6 x1 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x2 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x3 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x4 0.8 1.0 0.0 4 2 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 m6 2 ?2 ?4 ?2 ?4 ?6 0.2 m5 m4 2 2 ?2 ?4 ?2 ?4 ?2 ?4 0.0 m3 m2 2 m1 2 4 4 4 6 6 4 4 l1=79.26 6 l1=90.65 6 l1=88.36 6 l1=97.05 0.2 0.4 0.6 x5 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 x6 0.8 1.0 Figure 2: (Simulated data) Upper left: The empirical `2 norm of the estimated P components as plotted against the tuning parameter ?; the value on the x-axis is proportional to j k b f j k2 . Upper center: The C p scores against the tuning parameter ?; the dashed vertical line corresponds to the value of ? which has the smallest C p score. Upper right: The proportion of 200 trials where the correct relevant variables are selected, as a function of sample size n. Lower (from left to right): Estimated (solid lines) versus true additive component functions (dashed lines) for the first 6 dimensions; the remaining components are zero. 5.2 Boston Housing The Boston housing data was collected to study house values in the suburbs of Boston; there are altogether 506 observations with 10 covariates. The dataset has been studied by many other authors (H?rdle et al., 2004; Lin and Zhang, 2006), with various transformations proposed for different covariates. To explore the sparsistency properties of our method, we add 20 irrelevant variables. Ten of them are randomly drawn from Uniform(0, 1), the remaining ten are a random permutation of the original ten covariates, so that they have the same empirical densities. The full model (containing all 10 chosen covariates) for the Boston Housing data is: medv = ? + f 1 (crim) + f 2 (indus) + f 3 (nox) + f 4 (rm) + f 5 (age) + f 6 (dis) + f 7 (tax) + f 8 (ptratio) + f 9 (b) + f 10 (lstat) (32) The result of applying SpAM to this 30 dimensional dataset is shown in Figure 3. SpAM identifies 6 nonzero components. It correctly zeros out both types of irrelevant variables. From the full solution path, the important variables are seen to be rm, lstat, ptratio, and crim. The importance of variables nox and b are borderline. These results are basically consistent with those obtained by other authors (H?rdle et al., 2004). However, using C p as the selection criterion, the variables indux, age, dist, and tax are estimated to be irrelevant, a result not seen in other studies. 5.3 SpAM for Spam Here we consider an email spam classification problem, using the logistic SpAM backfitting algorithm from Section 3.1. This dataset has been studied by Hastie et al. (2001), using a set of 3,065 emails as a training set, and conducting hypothesis tests to choose significant variables; there are a total of 4,601 observations with p = 57 attributes, all numeric. The attributes measure the percentage of specific words or characters in the email, the average and maximum run lengths of upper case letters, and the total number of such letters. To demonstrate how SpAM performs well with sparse data, we only sample n = 300 emails as the training set, with the remaining 4301 data points used as the test set. We also use the test data as the hold-out set to tune the penalization parameter ?. The results of a typical run of logistic SpAM are summarized in Figure 4, using plug-in bandwidths. 7 m4 10 ?10 ?10 70 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 x1 l1=478.29 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 x4 l1=1221.11 0.4 0.6 0.8 20 m1010 m8 10 20 40 30 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ?10 0.2 ?10 0.0 20 0 17 7 5 1 63 8 50 Cp 2 60 Component Norms 10 3 80 m1 10 4 20 l1=1173.64 20 l1=177.14 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 x8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 x10 0.18 0.16 SELECTED VARIABLES { 8,54} { 8, 9, 27, 53, 54, 57} {7, 8, 9, 17, 18, 27, 53, 54, 57, 58} {4, 6?10, 14?22, 26, 27, 38, 53?58} ALL ALL ALL ALL 0.14 # ZEROS 55 51 46 20 0 0 0 0 0.12 E RROR 0.2009 0.1725 0.1354 ? 0.1083 ( ) 0.1117 0.1174 0.1251 0.1259 Empirical prediction error ?(?10?3 ) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 0.20 Figure 3: (Boston housing) Left: The empirical `2 norm of the estimated components versus the regularization parameter ?. Center: The C p scores against ?; the dashed vertical line corresponds to best C p score. Right: Additive fits for four relevant variables. 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 penalization parameter Figure 4: (Email spam) Classification accuracies and variable selection for logistic SpAM. 6 Acknowlegments This research was supported in part by NSF grant CCF-0625879 and a Siebel Scholarship to PR. References G REENSHTEIN , E. and R ITOV, Y. (2004). Persistency in high dimensional linear predictor-selection and the virtue of over-parametrization. Journal of Bernoulli 10 971?988. H ?RDLE , W., M ?LLER , M., S PERLICH , S. and W ERWATZ , A. (2004). Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models. Springer-Verlag Inc. H ASTIE , T. and T IBSHIRANI , R. (1999). Generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall Ltd. H ASTIE , T., T IBSHIRANI , R. and F RIEDMAN , J. H. (2001). The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer-Verlag. J UDITSKY, A. and N EMIROVSKI , A. (2000). Functional aggregation for nonparametric regression. Ann. Statist. 28 681?712. L IN , Y. and Z HANG , H. H. (2006). Component selection and smoothing in multivariate nonparametric regression. Ann. Statist. 34 2272?2297. M EINSHAUSEN , N. and Y U , B. (2006). Lasso-type recovery of sparse representations for high-dimensional data. Tech. Rep. 720, Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley. T IBSHIRANI , R. (1996). Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Methodological 58 267?288. WAINWRIGHT, M. (2006). Sharp thresholds for high-dimensional and noisy recovery of sparsity. Tech. Rep. 709, Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley. Y UAN , M. (2007). Nonnegative garrote component selection in functional ANOVA models. In Proceedings of AI and Statistics, AISTATS. Z HAO , P. and Y U , B. (2007). On model selection consistency of lasso. J. of Mach. Learn. Res. 7 2541?2567. 8
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Learning the structure of manifolds using random projections Yoav Freund ? UC San Diego Sanjoy Dasgupta ? UC San Diego Mayank Kabra UC San Diego Nakul Verma UC San Diego Abstract We present a simple variant of the k-d tree which automatically adapts to intrinsic low dimensional structure in data. 1 Introduction The curse of dimensionality has traditionally been the bane of nonparametric statistics, as reflected for instance in convergence rates that are exponentially slow in dimension. An exciting way out of this impasse is the recent realization by the machine learning and statistics communities that in many real world problems the high dimensionality of the data is only superficial and does not represent the true complexity of the problem. In such cases data of low intrinsic dimension is embedded in a space of high extrinsic dimension. For example, consider the representation of human motion generated by a motion capture system. Such systems typically track marks located on a tight-fitting body suit. The number of markers, say N , is set sufficiently large in order to get dense coverage of the body. A posture is represented by a (3N )-dimensional vector that gives the 3D location of each of the N marks. However, despite this seeming high dimensionality, the number of degrees of freedom is relatively small, corresponding to the dozen-or-so joint angles in the body. The marker positions are more or less deterministic functions of these joint angles. Thus the data lie in R3N , but on (or very close to) a manifold [4] of small dimension. In the last few years, there has been an explosion of research investigating methods for learning in the context of low-dimensional manifolds. Some of this work (for instance, [2]) exploits the low intrinsic dimension to improve the convergence rate of supervised learning algorithms. Other work (for instance, [12, 11, 1]) attempts to find an embedding of the data into a low-dimensional space, thus finding an explicit mapping that reduces the dimensionality. In this paper, we describe a new way of modeling data that resides in RD but has lower intrinsic dimension d < D. Unlike many manifold learning algorithms, we do not attempt to find a single unified mapping from RD to Rd . Instead, we hierarchically partition RD into pieces in a manner that is provably sensitive to low-dimensional structure. We call this spatial data structure a random projection tree (RP tree). It can be thought of as a variant of the k-d tree that is provably manifoldadaptive. k-d trees, RP trees, and vector quantization Recall that a k-d tree [3] partitions RD into hyperrectangular cells. It is built in a recursive manner, splitting along one coordinate direction at a time. The succession of splits corresponds to a binary tree whose leaves contain the individual cells in RD . These trees are among the most widely-used methods for spatial partitioning in machine learning and computer vision. ? ? Corresponding author: [email protected]. Dasgupta and Verma acknowledge the support of NSF, under grants IIS-0347646 and IIS-0713540. 1 Figure 1: Left: A spatial partitioning of R2 induced by a k-d tree with three levels. The dots are data vectors; each circle represents the mean of the vectors in one cell. Right: Partitioning induced by an RP tree. On the left part of Figure 1 we illustrate a k-d tree for a set of vectors in R2 . The leaves of the tree partition RD into cells; given a query point q, the cell containing q is identified by traversing down the k-d tree. Each cell can be thought of as having a representative vector: its mean, depicted in the figure by a circle. The partitioning together with these mean vectors define a vector quantization (VQ) of R2 : a mapping from R2 to a finite set of representative vectors (called a ?codebook? in the context of lossy compression methods). A good property of this tree-structured vector quantization is that a vector can be mapped efficiently to its representative. The design goal of VQ is to minimize the error introduced by replacing vectors with their representative. We quantify the VQ error by the average squared Euclidean distance between a vector in the set and the representative vector to which it is mapped. This error is closely related (in fact, proportional) to the average diameter of cells, that is, the average squared distance between pairs of points in a cell.1 As the depth of the k-d tree increases the diameter of the cells decreases and so does the VQ error. However, in high dimension, the rate of decrease of the average diameter can be very slow. In fact, as we show in the supplementary material, there are data sets in RD for which a k-d tree requires D levels in order to halve the diameter. This slow rate of decrease of cell diameter is fine if D = 2 as in Figure 1, but it is disastrous if D = 1000. Constructing 1000 levels of the tree requires 21000 data points! This problem is a real one that has been observed empirically: k-d trees are prone to a curse of dimensionality. What if the data have low intrinsic dimension? In general, k-d trees will not be able to benefit from this; in fact the bad example mentioned above has intrinsic dimension d = 1. But we show that a simple variant of the k-d tree does indeed decrease cell diameters much more quickly. Instead of splitting along coordinate directions, we use randomly chosen unit vectors, and instead of splitting data exactly at the median, we use a more carefully chosen split point. We call the resulting data structure a random projection tree (Figure 1, right) and we show that it admits the following theoretical guarantee (formal statement is in the next section). Pick any cell C in the RP tree, and suppose the data in C have intrinsic dimension d. Pick a descendant cell ? d levels below; then with constant probability, this descendant has average diameter at most half that of C.2 There is no dependence at all on the extrinsic dimensionality (D) of the data. We thus have a vector quantization construction method for which the diameter of the cells depends on the intrinsic dimension, rather than the extrinsic dimension of the data. A large part of the benefit of RP trees comes from the use of random unit directions, which is rather like running k-d trees with a preprocessing step in which the data are projected into a random 1 2 This is in contrast to the max diameter, the maximum distance between two vectors in a cell. Here the probability is taken over the randomness in constructing the tree. 2 low-dimensional subspace. In fact, a recent experimental study of nearest neighbor algorithms [8] observes that a similar pre-processing step improves the performance of nearest neighbor schemes based on spatial data structures. Our work provides a theoretical explanation for this improvement and shows both theoretically and experimentally that this improvement is significant. The explanation we provide is based on the assumption that the data has low intrinsic dimension. Another spatial data structure based on random projections is the locality sensitive hashing scheme [6]. Manifold learning and near neighbor search The fast rate of diameter decrease in random projection trees has many consequences beyond the quality of vector quantization. In particular, the statistical theory of tree-based statistical estimators ? whether used for classification or regression ? is centered around the rate of diameter decrease; for details, see for instance Chapter 20 of [7]. Thus RP trees generically exhibit faster convergence in all these contexts. Another case of interest is nearest neighbor classification. If the diameter of cells is small, then it is reasonable to classify a query point according to the majority label in its cell. It is not necessary to find the nearest neighbor; after all, the only thing special about this point is that it happens to be close to the query. The classical work of Cover and Hart [5] on the Bayes risk of nearest neighbor methods applies equally to the majority vote in a small enough cell. Figure 2: Distributions with low intrinsic dimension. The purple areas in these figures indicate regions in which the density of the data is significant, while the complementary white areas indicate areas where data density is very low. The left figure depicts data concentrated near a one-dimensional manifold. The ellipses represent mean+PCA approximations to subsets of the data. Our goal is to partition data into small diameter regions so that the data in each region is well-approximated by its mean+PCA. The right figure depicts a situation where the dimension of the data is variable. Some of the data lies close to a one-dimensional manifold, some of the data spans two dimensions, and some of the data (represented by the red dot) is concentrated around a single point (a zero-dimensional manifold). Finally, we return to our original motivation: modeling data which lie close to a low-dimensional manifold. In the literature, the most common way to capture this manifold structure is to create a graph in which nodes represent data points and edges connect pairs of nearby points. While this is a natural representation, it does not scale well to very large datasets because the computation time of closest neighbors grows like the square of the size of the data set. Our approach is fundamentally different. Instead of a bottom-up strategy that starts with individual data points and links them together to form a graph, we use a top-down strategy that starts with the whole data set and partitions it, in a hierarchical manner, into regions of smaller and smaller diameter. Once these individual cells are small enough, the data in them can be well-approximated by an affine subspace, for instance that given by principal component analysis. In Figure 2 we show how data in two dimensions can be approximated by such a set of local ellipses. 2 2.1 The RP tree algorithm Spatial data structures In what follows, we assume the data lie in RD , and we consider spatial data structures built by recursive binary splits. They differ only in the nature of the split, which we define in a subroutine 3 called C HOOSE RULE. The core tree-building algorithm is called M AKE T REE, and takes as input a data set S ? RD . procedure M AKE T REE(S) if |S| < M inSize then ? return (Leaf ) Rule ? C HOOSE RULE(S) ? ? Lef tT ree ? M AKE T REE({x ? S : Rule(x) = true}) else ? ?RightT ree ? M AKE T REE({x ? S : Rule(x) = false}) return ([Rule, Lef tT ree, RightT ree]) A natural way to try building a manifold-adaptive spatial data structure is to split each cell along its principal component direction (for instance, see [9]). procedure C HOOSE RULE(S) comment: PCA tree version let u be the principal eigenvector of the covariance of S Rule(x) := x ? u ? median({z ? u : z ? S}) return (Rule) This method will do a good job of adapting to low intrinsic dimension (details omitted). However, it has two significant drawbacks in practice. First, estimating the principal eigenvector requires a significant amount of data; recall that only about 1/2k fraction of the data winds up at a cell at level k of the tree. Second, when the extrinsic dimension is high, the amount of memory and computation required to compute the dot product between the data vectors and the eigenvectors becomes the dominant part of the computation. As each node in the tree is likely to have a different eigenvector this severely limits the feasible tree depth. We now show that using random projections overcomes these problems while maintaining the adaptivity to low intrinsic dimension. 2.2 Random projection trees We shall see that the key benefits of PCA-based splits can be realized much more simply, by picking random directions. To see this pictorially, consider data that is concentrated on a subspace, as in the following figure. PCA will of course correctly identify this subspace, and a split along the principal eigenvector u will do a good job of reducing the diameter of the data. But a random direction v will also have some component in the direction of u, and splitting along the median of v will not be all that different from splitting along u. Figure 3: Intuition: a random direction is almost as good as the principal eigenvector. Now only medians need to be estimated, not principal eigenvectors; this significantly reduces the data requirements. Also, we can use the same random projection in different places in the tree; all we need is to choose a large enough set of projections that, with high probability, there is be a good projection direction for each node in the tree. In our experience setting the number of projections equal to the depth of the tree is sufficient. Thus, for a tree of depth k, we use only k projection vectors v, as opposed to 2k with a PCA tree. When preparing data to train a tree we can compute the k projection values before building the tree. This also reduces the memory requirements for the training set, as we can replace each high dimensional data point with its k projection values (typically we use 10 ? k ? 20). We now define RP trees formally. For a cell containing points S, let ?(S) be the diameter of S (the distance between the two furthest points in the set), and ?A (S) the average diameter, that is, the 4 average distance between points of S: 1 X 2 X ?2A (S) = kx ? yk2 = kx ? mean(S)k2 . 2 |S| |S| x,y?S x?S 2 We use two different types of splits: if ? (S) is less than c?2A (S) (for some constant c) then we use the hyperplane split discussed above. Otherwise, we split S into two groups based on distance from the mean. procedure C HOOSE RULE(S) comment: RP tree version 2 if ?2 (S) ?? c ? ?A (S) choose a random unit direction v ? ? ? ? sort projection values: a(x) = v ? x ?x ? S, generating the list a1 ? a2 ? ? ? ? ? an ? ? ? . . . , n ? 1 compute ? ( i = 1, P ?for Pn i 1 1 ?1 = i j=1 aj , ?2 = n?i then j=i+1 aj P P ? i n 2 2 ? ? c = (a ? ? ) + i 1 ? j=1 j j=i+1 (aj ? ?2 ) ? ? ? ? ?find i that minimizes ci and set ? = (ai + ai+1 )/2 Rule(x) := v ? x ? ? else {Rule(x) := kx ? mean(S)k ? median{kz ? mean(S)k : z ? S} return (Rule) In the first type of split, the data in a cell are projected onto a random direction and an appropriate split point is chosen. This point is not necessarily the median (as in k-d trees), but rather the position that maximally decreases average squared interpoint distance. In Figure 4.4, for instance, splitting the bottom cell at the median would lead to a messy partition, whereas the RP tree split produces two clean, connected clusters. Figure 4: An illustration of the RP-Tree algorithm. 1: The full data set and the PCA ellipse that approximates it. 2: The first level split. 3: The two PCA ellipses corresponding to the two cells after the first split. 4: The two splits in the second level. 5: The four PCA ellipses for the cells at the third level. 6: The four splits at the third level. As the cells get smaller, their individual PCAs reveal 1D manifold structure. Note: the ellipses are for comparison only; the RP tree algorithm does not look at them. The second type of split, based on distance from the mean of the cell, is needed to deal with cases in which the cell contains data at very different scales. In Figure 2, for instance, suppose that the vast majority of data is concentrated at the singleton ?0-dimensional? point. If only splits by projection were allowed, then a large number of splits would be devoted to uselessly subdividing this point mass. The second type of split separates it from the rest of the data in one go. For a more concrete example, suppose that the data are image patches. A large fraction of them might be ?empty? background patches, in which case they?d fall near the center of the cell in a very tight cluster. The 5 remaining image patches will be spread out over a much larger space. The effect of the split is then to separate out these two clusters. 2.3 Theoretical foundations In analyzing RP trees, we consider a statistical notion of dimension: we say set S has local covariance dimension (d, ) if (1 ? ) fraction of the variance is concentrated in a d-dimensional subspace. 2 To make this precise, start by letting ?12 ? ?22 ? ? ? ? ? ?D denote the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix; these are the variances in each of the eigenvector directions. Definition 1 S ? RD has local covariance dimension (d, ) if the largest d eigenvalues of its 2 2 covariance matrix satisfy ?12 + ? ? ? + ?d2 ? (1 ? ) ? (?12 + ? ? ? + ?D ). (Note that ?12 + ? ? ? + ?D = 2 (1/2)?A (S).) Now, suppose an RP tree is built from a data set X ? RD , not necessarily finite. Recall that there are two different types of splits; let?s call them splits by distance and splits by projection. Theorem 2 There are constants 0 < c1 , c2 , c3 < 1 with the following property. Suppose an RP tree is built using data set X ? RD . Consider any cell C for which X ? C has local covariance dimension (d, ), where  < c1 . Pick a point x ? S ? C at random, and let C 0 be the cell that contains it at the next level down. ? If C is split by distance then E [?(S ? C 0 )] ? c2 ?(S ? C). ? If C is split by projection, then    c3  2 E ?2A (S ? C 0 ) ? 1 ? ?A (S ? C). d In both cases, the expectation is over the randomization in splitting C and the choice of x ? S ? C. As a consequence, the expected average diameter of cells is halved every O(d) levels. The proof of this theorem is in the supplementary material, along with even stronger results for different notions of dimension. 3 3.1 Experimental Results A streaming version of the algorithm The version of the RP algorithm we use in practice differs from the one above in three ways. First of all, both splits operate on the projected data; for the second type of split (split by distance), data that fall in an interval around the median are separated from data outside that interval. Second, the tree is built in a streaming manner: that is, the data arrive one at a time, and are processed (to update the tree) and immediately discarded. This is managed by maintaining simple statistics at each internal node of the tree and updating them appropriately as the data streams by (more details in the supplementary matter). The resulting efficiency is crucial to the large-scale applications we have in mind. Finally, instead of choosing a new random projection in each cell, a dictionary of a few random projections is chosen at the outset. In each cell, every one of these projections is tried out and the best one (that gives the largest decrease in ?2A (S)) is retained. This last step has the effect of boosting the probability of a good split. 3.2 Synthetic datasets We start by considering two synthetic datasets that illustrate the shortcomings of k-d trees. We will see that RP trees adapt well to such cases. For the first dataset, points x1 , . . . , xn ? RD are generated by the following process: for each point xi , 6 1350 1250 k?d Tree (random coord) k?d Tree (max var coord) RP Tree PCA Tree 1800 1200 Avg VQ Error Avg VQ Error 2000 k?d Tree (random coord) k?d Tree (max var coord) RP Tree PCA Tree 1300 1150 1100 1050 1600 1400 1200 1000 950 1 2 3 Levels 4 1000 5 1 2 3 Levels 4 5 Figure 5: Performance of RP trees with k-d trees on first synthetic dataset (left) and the second synthetic dataset (right) ? choose pi uniformly at random from [0, 1], and ? select each coordinate xij independently from N (pi , 1). For the second dataset, we choose n points from two D-dimensional Gaussians (with equal probability) with means at (?1, ?1, . . . , ?1) and (1, 1, . . . , 1), and identity covariances. We compare the performance of different trees according to the average VQ error they incur at various levels. We consider four types of trees: (1) k-d trees in which the coordinate for a split is chosen at random; (2) k-d trees in which at each split, the best coordinate is chosen (the one that most improves VQ error); (3) RP trees; and (4) for reference, PCA trees. Figure 5 shows the results for the two datasets (D = 1,000 and n = 10,000) averaged over 15 runs. In both cases, RP trees outperform both k-d tree variants and are close to the performance of PCA trees without having to explicitly compute any principal components. 3.3 MNIST dataset We next demonstrate RP trees on the all-familiar MNIST dataset of handwritten digits. This dataset consists of 28 ? 28 grayscale images of the digits zero through nine, and is believed to have low intrinsic dimension (for instance, see [10]). We restrict our attention to digit 1 for this discussion. Figure 6 (top) shows the first few levels of the RP tree for the images of digit 1. Each node is represented by the mean of the datapoints falling into that cell. Hence, the topmost node shows the mean of the entire dataset; its left and the right children show the means of the points belonging to their respective partitions, and so on. The bar underneath each node shows the fraction of points going to the left and to the right, to give a sense of how balanced each split is. Alongside each mean, we also show a histogram of the 20 largest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix, which reveal how closely the data in the cell is concentrated near a low-dimensional subspace. The last bar in the histogram is the variance unaccounted for. Notice that most of the variance lies in a small number of directions, as might be expected. And this rapidly becomes more pronounced as we go further down in the tree. Hence, very quickly, the cell means become good representatives of the dataset: an experimental corroboration that RP trees adapt to the low intrinsic dimension of the data. This is also brought out in Figure 6 (bottom), where the images are shown projected onto the plane defined by their top two principal components. (The outer ring of images correspond to the linear combinations of the two eigenvectors at those locations in the plane.) The left image shows how the data was split at the topmost level (dark versus light). Observe that this random cut is actually quite close to what the PCA split would have been, corroborating our earlier intuition (recall Figure 3). The right image shows the same thing, but for the first two levels of the tree: data is shown in four colors corresponding to the four different cells. 7 Figure 6: Top: Three levels of the RP tree for MNIST digit 1. Bottom: Images projected onto the first two principal components. Colors represent different cells in the RP tree, after just one split (left) or after two levels of the tree (right). References [1] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Laplacian eigenmaps for dimensionality reduction and data representation. Neural Computation, 15(6):1373?1396, 2003. [2] M. Belkin, P. Niyogi, and V. Sindhwani. On manifold regularization. Conference on AI and Statistics, 2005. [3] J. Bentley. Multidimensional binary search trees used for associative searching. Communications of the ACM, 18(9):509?517, 1975. [4] W. Boothby. An Introduction to Differentiable Manifolds and Riemannian Geometry. Academic Press, 2003. [5] T. M. Cover and P. E. Hart. Nearest neighbor pattern classifications. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 13(1):21?27, 1967. [6] M. Datar, N. Immorlica, P. Indyk, and V. Mirrokni. Locality sensitive hashing scheme based on p-stable distributions. Symposium on Computational Geometry, 2004. [7] L. Devroye, L. Gyorfi, and G. Lugosi. A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition. Springer, 1996. [8] T. Liu, A. Moore, A. Gray, and K. Yang. An investigation of practical approximate nearest neighbor algorithms. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2004. [9] J. McNames. A fast nearest neighbor algorithm based on a principal axis search tree. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 23(9):964?976, 2001. [10] M. Raginsky and S. Lazebnik. Estimation of intrinsic dimensionality using high-rate vector quantization. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 18, 2006. [11] S. Roweis and L. Saul. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding. Science, 290:2323?2326, 2000. [12] J. Tenenbaum, V. de Silva, and J. Langford. A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Science, 290(5500):2319?2323, 2000. 8
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A Probabilistic Approach to Language Change Alexandre Bouchard-C?ot?e? Percy Liang? Thomas L. Griffiths? ? ? Computer Science Division Department of Psychology University of California at Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 Dan Klein? Abstract We present a probabilistic approach to language change in which word forms are represented by phoneme sequences that undergo stochastic edits along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. This framework combines the advantages of the classical comparative method with the robustness of corpus-based probabilistic models. We use this framework to explore the consequences of two different schemes for defining probabilistic models of phonological change, evaluating these schemes by reconstructing ancient word forms of Romance languages. The result is an efficient inference procedure for automatically inferring ancient word forms from modern languages, which can be generalized to support inferences about linguistic phylogenies. 1 Introduction Languages evolve over time, with words changing in form, meaning, and the ways in which they can be combined into sentences. Several centuries of linguistic analysis have shed light on some of the key properties of this evolutionary process, but many open questions remain. A classical example is the hypothetical Proto-Indo-European language, the reconstructed common ancestor of the modern Indo-European languages. While the existence and general characteristics of this proto-language are widely accepted, there is still debate regarding its precise phonology, the original homeland of its speakers, and the date of various events in its evolution. The study of how languages change over time is known as diachronic (or historical) linguistics (e.g., [4]). Most of what we know about language change comes from the comparative method, in which words from different languages are compared in order to identify their relationships. The goal is to identify regular sound correspondences between languages and use these correspondences to infer the forms of proto-languages and the phylogenetic relationships between languages. The motivation for basing the analysis on sounds is that phonological changes are generally more systematic than syntactic or morphological changes. Comparisons of words from different languages are traditionally carried out by hand, introducing an element of subjectivity into diachronic linguistics. Early attempts to quantify the similarity between languages (e.g., [15]) made drastic simplifying assumptions that drew strong criticism from diachronic linguists. In particular, many of these approaches simply represent the appearance of a word in two languages with a single bit, rather than allowing for gradations based on correspondences between sequences of phonemes. We take a quantitative approach to diachronic linguistics that alleviates this problem by operating at the phoneme level. Our approach combines the advantages of the classical, phoneme-based, comparative method with the robustness of corpus-based probabilistic models. We focus on the case where the words are etymological cognates across languages, e.g. French faire and Spanish hacer from Latin facere (to do). Following [3], we use this information to estimate a contextualized model of phonological change expressed as a probability distribution over rules applied to individual phonemes. The model is fully generative, and thus can be used to solve a variety of problems. For example, we can reconstruct ancestral word forms or inspect the rules learned along each branch of 1 a phylogeny to identify sound laws. Alternatively, we can observe a word in one or more modern languages, say French and Spanish, and query the corresponding word form in another language, say Italian. Finally, models of this kind can potentially be used as a building block in a system for inferring the topology of phylogenetic trees [3]. In this paper, we use this general approach to evaluate the performance of two different schemes for defining probability distributions over rules. The first scheme, used in [3], treats these distributions as simple multinomials and uses a Dirichlet prior on these multinomials. This approach makes it difficult to capture rules that apply at different levels of granularity. Inspired by the prevalence of multi-scale rules in diachronic phonology and modern phonological theory, we develop a new scheme in which rules possess a set of features, and a distribution over rules is defined using a loglinear model. We evaluate both schemes in reconstructing ancient word forms, showing that the new linguistically-motivated change can improve performance significantly. 2 Background and previous work Most previous computational approaches to diachronic linguistics have focused on the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from a Boolean matrix indicating the properties of words in different languages [10, 6, 14, 13]. These approaches descend from glottochronology [15], which measures the similarity between languages (and the time since they diverged) using the number of words in those languages that belong to the same cognate set. This information is obtained from manually curated cognate lists such as the data of [5]. The modern instantiations of this approach rely on sophisticated techniques for inferring phylogenies borrowed from evolutionary biology (e.g., [11, 7]). However, they still generally use cognate sets as the basic data for evaluating the similarity between languages (although some approaches incorporate additional manually constructed features [14]). As an example of a cognate set encoding, consider the meaning ?eat?. There would be one column for the cognate set which appears in French as manger and Italian as mangiare since both descend from the Latin mandere (to chew). There would be another column for the cognate set which appears in both Spanish and Portuguese as comer, descending from the Latin comedere (to consume). If these were the only data, algorithms based on this data would tend to conclude that French and Italian were closely related and that Spanish and Portuguese were equally related. However, the cognate set representation has several disadvantages: it does not capture the fact that the cognate is closer between Spanish and Portuguese than between French and Spanish, nor do the resulting models let us conclude anything about the regular processes which caused these languages to diverge. Also, curating cognate data can be expensive. In contrast, each word in our work is tracked using an automatically obtained cognate list. While these cognates may be noisier, we compensate for this by modeling phonological changes rather than Boolean mutations in cognate sets. Another line of computational work has explored using phonological models as a way to capture the differences between languages. [16] describes an information theoretic measure of the distance between two dialects of Chinese. They use a probabilistic edit model, but do not consider the reconstruction of ancient word forms, nor do they present a learning algorithm for such models. There have also been several approaches to the problem of cognate prediction in machine translation (essentially transliteration), e.g., [12]. Compared to our work, the phenomena of interest, and therefore the models, are different. [12] presents a model for learning ?sound laws,? general phonological changes governing two completely observed aligned cognate lists. This model can be viewed as a special case of ours using a simple two-node topology. 3 A generative model of phonological change In this section, we outline the framework for modeling phonological change that we will use throughout the paper. Assume we have a fixed set of word types (cognate sets) in our vocabulary V and a set of languages L. Each word type i has a word form wil in each language l ? L, which is represented as a sequence of phonemes which might or might not be observed. The languages are arranged according to some tree topology T (see Figure 2(a) for examples). It is possible to also induce the topology or cognate set assignments, but in this paper we assume that the topology is fixed and cognates have already been identified. 2 For each word i ? V : wiROOT ? LanguageModel For each branch (k ? l) ? T : [choose edit parameters] ?k?l ? Rules(? 2 ) For each word i ? V : wil ? Edit(wik , ?k?l ) [sample word form] ??? wiA ?A?B eiA?B (a) Generative description # C V C V C # # f o k u s # # f w O k o # # C V V C V # f o k u s ? ? ? ? ? wiB f wO k o / / / / / # C V C V V C V C # ?B?C eiB?C wiC ??? ?B?D eiB?D wiD ??? word type i = 1 . . . |V | Edits applied Rules used (b) Example of edits (c) Graphical model Figure 1: (a) A description of the generative model. (b) An example of edits that were used to transform the Latin word focus (/fokus/) into the Italian word fuoco (/fwOko/) (fire) along with the context-specific rules that were applied. (c) The graphical model representation of our model: ? are the parameters specifying the stochastic edits e, which govern how the words w evolve. The probabilistic model specifies a distribution over the word forms {wil } for each word type i ? V and each language l ? L via a simple generative process (Figure 1(a)). The generative process starts at the root language and generates all the word forms in each language in a top-down manner. The w ? LanguageModel distribution is a simple bigram phoneme model. Q A root word form w n consisting of n phonemes x1 ? ? ? xn is generated with probability plm (x1 ) = j=2 plm (xj | xj?1 ), where plm is the distribution of the language model. The stochastic edit model w0 ? Edit(w, ?) describes how a single old word form w = x1 ? ? ? xn changes along one branch of the phylogeny with parameters ? to produce a new word form w0 . This process is parametrized by rule probabilities ?k?l , which are specific to branch (k ? l). The generative process used in the edit model is as follows: for each phoneme xi in the old word form, walking from left to right, choose a rule to apply. There are three types of rules: (1) deletion of the phoneme, (2) substitution with some phoneme (possibly the same one), or (3) insertion of another phoneme, either before or after the existing one. The probability of applying a rule depends on the context (xi?1 , xi+1 ). Context-dependent rules are often used to characterize phonological changes in diachronic linguistics [4]. Figure 1(b) shows an example of the rules being applied. The context-dependent form of these rules allows us to represent phenomena such as the likely deletion of s in word-final positions. 4 Defining distributions over rules In the model defined in the previous section, each branch (k ? l) ? T has a collection of contextdependent rule probabilities ?k?l . Specifically, ?k?l specifies a collection of multinomial distributions, one for each C = (cl , x, cr ), where cl is left phoneme, x is the old phoneme, cr is the right phoneme. Each multinomial distribution is over possible right-hand sides ? of the rule, which could consist of 0, 1, or 2 phonemes. We write ?k?l (C, ?) for the probability of rule x ? ? / c1 c2 . Previous work using this probabilistic framework simply placed independent Dirichlet priors on each of the multinomial distributions [3]. While this choice results in a simple estimation procedure, it has some severe limitations. Sound changes happen at many granularities. For example, from Latin to Vulgar Latin, u ? o occurs in many contexts while s ? ? occurs only in word-final contexts. Using independent Dirichlets forces us to commit to a single context granularity for C. Since the different multinomial distributions are not tied together, generalization becomes very difficult, especially as data is limited. It is also difficult to interpret the learned rules, since the evidence for a coarse phenomenon such as u ? o would be unnecessarily fragmented across many different 3 context-dependent rules. We would like to ideally capture a phenomenon using a single rule or feature. We could relate the rule probabilities via a simple hierarchical Bayesian model, but we would still have to define a single hierarchy of contexts. This restriction might be inappropriate given that sound changes often depend on different contexts that are not necessarily nested. For these reasons, we propose using a feature-based distribution over the rule probabilities. Let F (C, ?) be a feature vector that depends on the context-dependent rule (C, ?), and ?k?l be the log-linear weights for branch (k ? l). We use a Normal prior on the log-linear weights, ?k?l ? N (0, ? 2 I). The rule probabilities are then deterministically related to the weights via the softmax function: T e?k?l F (C,?) ?k?l (C, ?; ?k?l ) = P ?T F (C,?0 ) . k?l ?0 e (1) For each rule x ? ? / cl cr , we defined features based on whether x = ? (i.e. self-substitution), and whether |?| = n for each n = 0, 1, 2 (corresponding to deletion, substitution, and insertion). We also defined sets of features using three partitions of phonemes c into ?natural classes?. These correspond to looking at the place of articulation (denoted A2 (c)), testing whether c is a vowel, consonant, or boundary symbol (A1 (c)), and the trivial wildcard partition (A0 (c)), which allows rules to be insensitive to c. Using these partitions, the final set of features corresponded to whether Akl (cl ) = al and Akr (cr ) = ar for each type of partitioning kl , kr ? {0, 1, 2} and natural classes al , ar . The move towards using a feature-based scheme for defining rule probabilities is not just motivated by the greater expressive capacity of this scheme. It also provides a connection with contemporary phonological theory. Recent work in computational linguistics on probabilistic forms of optimality theory has begun to use a similar approach, characterizing the distribution over word forms within a language using a log-linear model applied to features of the words [17, 9]. Using similar features to define a distribution over phonological changes thus provides a connection between synchronic and diachronic linguistics in addition to a linguistically-motivated method for improving reconstruction. 5 Learning and inference We use a Monte Carlo EM algorithm to fit the parameters of both models. The algorithm iterates between a stochastic E-step, which computes reconstructions based on the current edit parameters, and an M-step, which updates the edit parameters based on the reconstructions. 5.1 Monte Carlo E-step: sampling the edits The E-step computes the expected sufficient statistics required for the M-step, which in our case is the expected number of times each edit (such as o ? O) was used in each context. Note that the sufficient statistics do not depend on the prior over rule probabilities; in particular, both the model based on independent Dirichlet priors and the one based on a log-linear prior require the same E-step computation. An exact E-step would require summing over all possible edits involving all languages in the phylogeny (all unobserved {e}, {w} variables in Figure 1(c)), which does not permit a tractable dynamic program. Therefore, we resort to a Monte Carlo E-step, where many samples of the edit variables are collected, and counts are computed based on these samples. Samples are drawn using Gibbs sampling [8]: for each word form of a particular language wil , we fix all other variables in the model and sample wil along with its corresponding edits. Consider the simple four-language topology in Figure 1(c). Suppose that the words in languages A, C and D are fixed, and we wish to sample the word at language B along with the three corresponding sets of edits (remember that the edits fully determine the words). While there are an exponential number of possible words/edits, we can exploit the Markov structure in the edit model to consider all such words/edits using dynamic programming, in a way broadly similar to the forward-backward algorithm for HMMs. See [3] for details of the dynamic program. 4 la vl la es ib it it Experiment Latin reconstruction (6.1) Sound changes (6.2) es Topology 1 Topology 1 1 2 Model Dirichlet Log-linear Log-linear Heldout la:293 la:293 None pt Topology 2 (a) Topologies (b) Experimental conditions Figure 2: Conditions under which each of the experiments presented in this section were performed. The topology indices correspond to those displayed at the left. The heldout column indicates how many words, if any, were held out for edit distance evaluation, and from which language. All the experiments were run on a data set of 582 cognates from [3]. 5.2 M-step: updating the parameters In the M-step, we estimate the distribution over rules for each branch (k ? l). In the Dirichlet model, this can be done in closed form [3]. In the log-linear model, we need to optimize the feature weights ?k?l . Let us fix a single branch and drop the subscript. Let N (C, ?) be the expected number of times the rule (C, ?) was used in the E-step. Given these sufficient statistics, the estimate of ? is given by optimizing the expected complete log-likelihood plus the regularization penalty from the prior on ?, h i ||?||2 X X T 0 O(?) = N (C, ?) ?T F (C, ?) ? log e? F (C,? ) ? . (2) 2? 2 0 ? C,? We use L-BFGS to optimize this convex objective. which only requires the partial derivatives: h i ? X X ?O(?) j (3) = N (C, ?) Fj (C, ?) ? ?(C, ?0 ; ?)Fj (C, ?0 ) ? 2 ??j ? 0 ? C,? = F?j ? X N (C, ?)?(C, ?0 ; ?)Fj (C, ?0 ) ? C,?0 ?j , ?2 (4) def P def P where F?j = C,? N (C, ?)Fj (C, ?) is the empirical feature vector and N (C, ?) = ? N (C, ?) is the number of times context C was used. F?j and N (C, ?) do not depend on ? and thus can be precomputed at the beginning of the M-step, thereby speeding up each L-BFGS iteration. 6 Experiments In this section, we summarize the results of the experiments testing our different probabilistic models of phonological change. The experimental conditions are summarized in Table 2. Training and test data sets were taken from [3]. 6.1 Reconstruction of ancient word forms We ran the two models using Topology 1 in Figure 2 to assess the relative performance of Dirichletparametrized versus log-linear-parametrized models. Half of the Latin words at the root of the tree were held out, and the (uniform cost) Levenshtein edit distance from the predicted reconstruction to the truth was computed. While the uniform-cost edit distance misses important aspects of phonology (all phoneme substitutions are not equal, for instance), it is parameter-free and still seems to correlate to a large extent with linguistic quality of reconstruction. It is also superior to held-out log-likelihood, which fails to penalize errors in the modeling assumptions, and to measuring the percentage of perfect reconstructions, which ignores the degree of correctness of each reconstructed word. 5 Model Dirichlet Log-linear (0) Log-linear (0,1) Log-linear (0,1,2) Baseline 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 Model 3.33 3.21 3.14 3.10 Improvement 7% 11% 12% 14% Table 1: Results of the edit distance experiment. The language column corresponds to the language held out for evaluation. We show the mean edit distance across the evaluation examples. Improvement rate is computed by comparing the score of the algorithm against the baseline described in Section 6.1. The numbers in parentheses for the log-linear model indicate which levels of granularity were used to construct the features (see Section 4). /dEntis/ i ?E E?jE s? /djEntes/ /dEnti/ Figure 3: An example of the proper Latin reconstruction given the Spanish and Italian word forms. Our model produces /dEntes/, which is nearly correct, capturing two out of three of the phenomena. We ran EM for 10 iterations for each model, and evaluated performance via a Viterbi derivation produced using these parameters. Our baseline for comparison was picking randomly, for each heldout node in the tree, an observed neighboring word (i.e., copy one of the modern forms). Both models outperformed this baseline (see Figure 3), and the log-linear model outperformed the Dirichlet model, suggesting that the featurized system better captures the phonological changes. Moreover, adding more features further improved the performance, indicating that being able to express rules at multiple levels of granularity allows the model to capture the underlying phonological changes more accurately. To give a qualitative feel for the operation of the system (good and bad), consider the example in Figure 3, taken from the Dirichlet-parametrized experiment. The Latin dentis /dEntis/ (teeth) is nearly correctly reconstructed as /dEntes/, reconciling the appearance of the /j/ in the Spanish and the disappearance of the final /s/ in the Italian. Note that the /is/ vs. /es/ ending is difficult to predict in this context (indeed, it was one of the early distinctions to be eroded in Vulgar Latin). 6.2 Inference of phonological changes Another use of this model is to automatically recover the phonological drift processes between known or partially-known languages. To facilitate evaluation, we continued in the well-studied Romance evolutionary tree. Again, the root is Latin, but we now add an additional modern language, Portuguese, and two additional hidden nodes. One of the nodes characterizes the least common ancestor of modern Spanish and Portuguese; the other, the least common ancestor of all three modern languages. In Figure 2, Topology 2, these two nodes are labeled vl (Vulgar Latin) and ib (ProtoIbero Romance), respectively. Since we are omitting many other branches, these names should not be understood as referring to actual historical proto-languages, but, at best, to collapsed points representing several centuries of evolution. Nonetheless, the major reconstructed rules still correspond to well-known phenomena and the learned model generally places them on reasonable branches. Figure 4 shows the top four general rules for each of the evolutionary branches recovered by the log-linear model. The rules are ranked by the number of times they were used in the derivations during the last iteration of EM. The la, es, pt, and it forms are fully observed while the vl and ib forms are automatically reconstructed. Figure 4 also shows a specific example of the evolution of the Latin VERBUM (word), along with the specific edits employed by the model. For this particular example, both the Dirichlet and the log-linear models produced the same reconstruction in the internal nodes. However, the log-linear parametrization makes inspection of sound laws easier. Indeed, with the Dirichlet model, since the natural classes are of fixed granularity, some 6 r ? R / * * e ? # / ALV t ? d / * * ? ? s / * * u ? o / * /werbum/ (la) m? u?o w?v * o ? os / C # v ? b / * * t ? te / * * e?E /veRbo/ (ib) v?b /beRbo/ (es) / * # / * # i ? / * V ? ? n / * /verbo/ (vl) r?R s ? m ? VELAR u ? o / * * e ? E / * * i ? / C V a ? ja / * * /vErbo/ (it) o?u /veRbu/ (pt) n ? m / * * a ? 5 / * * o ? u / * * e ? 1 * / * Figure 4: The tree shows the system?s hypothesized transformation of a selected Latin word form, VERBUM (word) into the modern Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese pronunciations. The Latin root and modern leaves were observed while the hidden nodes as well as all the derivations were obtained using the parameters computed by our model after 10 iterations of EM. Nontrivial rules (i.e. rules that are not identities) used at each stage are shown along the corresponding edge. The boxes display the top four nontrivial rules corresponding to each of these evolutionary branches, ordered by the number of times they were applied during the last E step. These are grouped and labeled by their active feature of highest weight. ALV stands for alveolar consonant. rules must be redundantly discovered, which tends to flood the top of the rule lists with duplicates. In contrast, the log-linear model groups rules with features of the appropriate degree of generality. While quantitative evaluation such as measuring edit distance is helpful for comparing results, it is also illuminating to consider the plausibility of the learned parameters in a historical light, which we do here briefly. In particular, we consider rules on the branch between la and vl, for which we have historical evidence. For example, documents such as the Appendix Probi [2] provide indications of orthographic confusions which resulted from the growing gap between Classical Latin and Vulgar Latin phonology around the 3rd and 4th centuries AD. The Appendix lists common misspellings of Latin words, from which phonological changes can be inferred. On the la to vl branch, rules for word-final deletion of classical case markers dominate the list. It is indeed likely that these were generally eliminated in Vulgar Latin. For the deletion of the /m/, the Appendix Probi contains pairs such as PASSIM NON PASSI and OLIM NON OLI. For the deletion of final /s/, this was observed in early inscriptions, e.g. CORNELIO for CORNELIOS [1]. The frequent leveling of the distinction between /o/ and /u/ (which was ranked 5, but was not included for space reasons) can be also be found in the Appendix Probi: COLUBER NON COLOBER. Note that in the specific example shown, the model lowers the original /u/ and then re-raises it in the pt branch due to a later process along that branch. Similarly, major canonical rules were discovered in other branches as well, for example, /v/ to /b/ fortition in Spanish, palatalization along several branches, and so on. Of course, the recovered words and rules are not perfect. For example, reconstructed Ibero /trinta/ to Spanish /treinta/ (thirty) is generated in an odd fashion using rules /e/ to /i/ and /n/ to /in/. In the Dirichlet model, even when otherwise reasonable systematic sound changes are captured, the crudeness of the fixed-granularity contexts can prevent the true context from being captured, resulting in either rules applying with low probability in overly coarse environments or rules being learned redundantly in overly fine environments. The featurized model alleviates this problem. 7 Conclusion Probabilistic models have the potential to replace traditional methods used for comparing languages in diachronic linguistics with quantitative methods for reconstructing word forms and inferring phylogenies. In this paper, we presented a novel probabilistic model of phonological change, in which the rules governing changes in the sound of words are parametrized using the features of the phonemes involved. This model goes beyond previous work in this area, providing more accurate reconstructions of ancient word forms and connections to current work on phonology in synchronic linguistics. Using a log-linear model to define the probability of a rule being applied results in a 7 straightforward inference procedure which can be used to both produce accurate reconstructions as measured by edit distance and identify linguistically plausible rules that account for phonological changes. We believe that this probabilistic approach has the potential to support quantitative analysis of the history of languages in a way that can scale to large datasets while remaining sensitive to the concerns that have traditionally motivated diachronic linguistics. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Bonnie Chantarotwong for her help with the IPA converter and our reviewers for their comments. This work was supported by a FQRNT fellowship to the first author, a NDSEG fellowship to the second author, NSF grant number BCS-0631518 to the third author, and a Microsoft Research New Faculty Fellowship to the fourth author. References [1] W. Sidney Allen. Vox Latina: The Pronunciation of Classical Latin. Cambridge University Press, 1989. [2] W.A. Baehrens. Sprachlicher Kommentar zur vulg?arlateinischen Appendix Probi. Halle (Saale) M. Niemeyer, 1922. [3] A. Bouchard-C?ot?e, P. Liang, T. Griffiths, and D. Klein. A Probabilistic Approach to Diachronic Phonology. In Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and Computational Natural Language Learning (EMNLP/CoNLL), 2007. [4] L. Campbell. Historical Linguistics. The MIT Press, 1998. [5] I. Dyen, J.B. Kruskal, and P. Black. FILE IE-DATA1. Available at http://www.ntu.edu.au/education/langs/ielex/IE-DATA1, 1997. [6] S. N. Evans, D. Ringe, and T. Warnow. Inference of divergence times as a statistical inverse problem. In P. Forster and C. Renfrew, editors, Phylogenetic Methods and the Prehistory of Languages. McDonald Institute Monographs, 2004. [7] J. Felsenstein. Inferring Phylogenies. Sinauer Associates, 2003. [8] S. Geman and D. Geman. Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 6:721?741, 1984. [9] S. Goldwater and M. Johnson. Learning ot constraint rankings using a maximum entropy model. Proceedings of the Workshop on Variation within Optimality Theory, 2003. [10] R. D. Gray and Q. Atkinson. Language-tree divergence times support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origins. Nature, 2003. [11] J. P. Huelsenbeck, F. Ronquist, R. Nielsen, and J. P. Bollback. Bayesian inference of phylogeny and its impact on evolutionary biology. Science, 2001. [12] G. Kondrak. Algorithms for Language Reconstruction. PhD thesis, University of Toronto, 2002. [13] L. Nakhleh, D. Ringe, and T. Warnow. Perfect phylogenetic networks: A new methodology for reconstructing the evolutionary history of natural languages. Language, 81:382?420, 2005. [14] D. Ringe, T. Warnow, and A. Taylor. Indo-european and computational cladistics. Transactions of the Philological Society, 100:59?129, 2002. [15] M. Swadesh. Towards greater accuracy in lexicostatistic dating. Journal of American Linguistics, 21:121?137, 1955. [16] A. Venkataraman, J. Newman, and J.D. Patrick. A complexity measure for diachronic chinese phonology. In J. Coleman, editor, Computational Phonology. Association for Computational Linguistics, 1997. [17] C. Wilson and B. Hayes. A maximum entropy model of phonotactics and phonotactic learning. Linguistic Inquiry, 2007. 8
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Online Linear Regression and Its Application to Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Alexander L. Strehl? Yahoo! Research New York, NY [email protected] Michael L. Littman Department of Computer Science Rutgers University Piscataway, NJ USA [email protected] Abstract We provide a provably efficient algorithm for learning Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state and action spaces in the online setting. Specifically, we take a model-based approach and show that a special type of online linear regression allows us to learn MDPs with (possibly kernalized) linearly parameterized dynamics. This result builds on Kearns and Singh?s work that provides a provably efficient algorithm for finite state MDPs. Our approach is not restricted to the linear setting, and is applicable to other classes of continuous MDPs. Introduction Current reinforcement-learning (RL) techniques hold great promise for creating a general type of artificial intelligence (AI), specifically autonomous (software) agents that learn difficult tasks with limited feedback (Sutton & Barto, 1998). Applied RL has been very successful, producing worldclass computer backgammon players (Tesauro, 1994) and model helicopter flyers (Ng et al., 2003). Many applications of RL, including the two above, utilize supervised-learning techniques for the purpose of generalization. Such techniques enable an agent to act intelligently in new situations by learning from past experience in different but similar situations. Provably efficient RL for finite state and action spaces is accomplished by Kearns and Singh (2002) and hugely contributes to our understanding of the relationship between exploration and sequential decision making. The achievement of the current paper is to provide an efficient RL algorithm that learns in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with continuous state and action spaces. We prove that it learns linearly-parameterized MDPs, a model introduced by Abbeel and Ng (2005), with sample (or experience) complexity that grows only polynomially with the number of state space dimensions. Our new RL algorithm utilizes a special linear regresser, based on least-squares regression, whose analysis may be of interest to the online learning and statistics communities. Although our primary result is for linearly-parameterized MDPs, our technique is applicable to other classes of continuous MDPs and our framework is developed specifically with such future applications in mind. The linear dynamics case should be viewed as only an interesting example of our approach, which makes substantial progress in the goal of understanding the relationship between exploration and generalization in RL. An outline of the paper follows. In Section 1, we discuss online linear regression and pose a new online learning framework that requires an algorithm to not only provide predictions for new data points but also provide formal guarantees about its predictions. We also develop a specific algorithm and prove that it solves the problem. In Section 2, using the algorithm and result from the first section, we develop a provably efficient RL algorithm. Finally, we conclude with future work. ? Some of the work presented here was conducted while the author was at Rutgers University. 1 1 Online Linear Regression Linear Regression (LR) is a well-known and tremendously powerful technique for prediction of the value of a variable (called the response or output) given the value of another variable (called the explanatory or input). Suppose we are given some data consisting of input-output pairs: (x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), . . . , (xm , ym ), where xi ? Rn and yi ? R for i = 1, . . . , m. Further, suppose that the data satisfies a linear relationship, that is yi ? ?T xi ?i ? {1, . . . , m}, where ? ? Rn is an n-dimensional parameter vector. When a new input x arrives, we would like to make a prediction of the corresponding output by estimating ? from our data. A standard approach is to approximate ? with the least-squares estimator ?? defined by ?? = (X T X)?1 X T y, where X ? Rm?n is a matrix whose ith row consists of the ith input xTi and y ? Rn is a vector whose ith component is the ith output yi . Although there are many analyses of the linear regression problem, none is quite right for an application to model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). In particular, in MBRL, we cannot assume that X is fixed ahead of time and we require more than just a prediction of ? but knowledge about whether this prediction is sufficiently accurate. A robust learning agent must not only infer an approximate model of its environment but also maintain an idea about the accuracy of the parameters of this model. Without such meta-knowledge, it would be difficult to determine when to explore (or when to trust the model) and how to explore (to improve the model). We coined the term KWIK (?know what it knows?) for algorithms that have this special property. With this idea in mind, we present the following online learning problem related to linear regression. Let ||v|| denote the Euclidean norm of a vector v and let Var [X] denote the variance of a random variable X. Definition 1 (KWIK Linear Regression Problem or KLRP) On every timestep t = 1, 2, . . . an input vector xt ? Rn satisf ying||xt|| ? 1 and output number yt ? [?1, 1] is provided. The input xt may be chosen in any way that depends on the previous inputs and outputs (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xt , yt ). The output yt is chosen probabilistically from a distribution that depends only on xt and satisfies E[yt ] = ?T xt and Var[yt ] ? ? 2 , where ? ? Rn is an unknown parameter vector satisfying ||?|| ? 1 and ? ? R is a known constant. After observing xt and before observing yt , the learning algorithm must produce an output y?t ? [?1, 1] ? {?} (a prediction of E[yt |xt ]). Furthermore, it should be able to provide an output y?(x) for any input vector x ? {0, 1}n. A key aspect of our problem that distinguishes it from other online learning models is that the algorithm is allowed to output a special value ? rather than make a valid prediction (an output other than ?). An output of ? signifies that the algorithm is not sure of what to predict and therefore declines to make a prediction. The algorithm would like to minimize the number of times it predicts ?, and, furthermore, when it does make a valid prediction the prediction must be accurate, with high probability. Next, we formalize the above intuition and define the properties of a ?solution? to KLRP. Definition 2 We define an admissible algorithm for the KWIK Linear Regression Problem to be one that takes two inputs 0 ?  ? 1 and 0 ? ? < 1 and, with probability at least 1 ? ?, satisfies the following conditions: 1. Whenever the algorithm predicts y?t (x) ? [?1, 1], we have that |? yt (x) ? ?T x| ? . 2. The number of timesteps t for which y?t (xt ) = ? is bounded by some function ?(, ?, n), polynomial in n, 1/ and 1/?, called the sample complexity of the algorithm. 1.1 Solution First, we present an algorithm and then a proof that it solves KLRP. Let X denote an m ? n matrix whose rows we interpret as transposed input vectors. We let X(i) denote the transpose of the ith row of X. Since X T X is symmetric, we can write it as X T X = U ?U T , (Singular Value Decomposition) (1) where U = [v1 , . . . , vn ] ? Rn?n , with v1 , . . . , vn being a set of orthonormal eigenvectors of X T X. Let the corresponding eigenvalues be ?1 ? ?2 ? ? ? ? ? ?k ? 1 > ?k+1 ? ? ? ? ? ?n ? 0. Note that ? = [v1 , . . . , vk ] ? ? = diag(?1 , . . . , ?n ) is diagonal but not necessarily invertible. Now, define U 2 ? = diag(?1 , . . . , ?k ) ? Rk?k . For a fixed input xt (a new input provided to the Rn?k and ? algorithm at time t), define ?? ? ?1 U ? T xt ? Rm?n , q? := X U (2) T v? = [0, . . . , 0, vk+1 xt , . . . , vnT xt ]T ? Rn . (3) Algorithm 1 KWIK Linear Regression 0: Inputs: ?1 , ?2 1: Initialize X = [ ] and y = [ ]. 2: for t = 1, 2, 3, ? ? ? do 3: Let xt denote the input at time t. 4: Compute q? and v? using Equations 2 and 3. 5: if ||? q || ? ?1 and ||? v || ? ?2 then P ? ? 1, where X(i) is 6: Choose ?? ? Rn that minimizes i [y(i) ? ??T X(i)]2 subject to ||?|| the transpose of the ith row of X and y(i) is the ith component of y. ? 7: Output valid prediction xT ?. 8: else 9: Output ?. 10: Receive output yt . 11: Append xTt as a new row to the matrix X. 12: Append yt as a new element to the vector y. 13: end if 14: end for Our algorithm for solving the KWIK Linear Regression Problem uses these quantities and is provided in pseudocode by Algorithm 1. Our first main result of the paper is the following theorem. Theorem 1 With appropriate parameter settings, Algorithm 1 is an admissible algorithm for the ? 3 /4 ). KWIK Linear Regression Problem with a sample complexity bound of O(n Although the analysis of Algorithm 1 is somewhat complicated, the algorithm itself has a simple interpretation. Given a new input xt , the algorithm considers making a prediction of the output yt using the norm-constrained least-squares estimator (specifically, ?? defined in line 6 of Algorithm1). The norms of the vectors q? and v? provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty about this estimate. When both norms are small, the estimate is trusted and a valid prediction is made. When either norm is large, the estimate is not trusted and the algorithm produces an output of ?. One may wonder why q? and v? provide a measure of uncertainty for the least-squares estimate. Consider the case when all eigenvalues of X T X are greater than 1. In this case, note that x = X T X(X T X)?1 x = X T q?. Thus, x can be written as a linear combination of the rows of X, whose coefficients make up q?, of previously experienced input vectors. As shown by Auer (2002), this particular linear combination minimizes ||q|| for any linear combination x = X T q. Intuitively, if the norm of q? is small, then there are many previous training samples (actually, combinations of inputs) ?similar? to x, and hence our least-squares estimate is likely to be accurate for x. For the case of ill-conditioned X T X (when X T X has eigenvalues close to 0), X(X T X)?1 x may be undefined or have a large norm. In this case, we must consider the directions corresponding to small eigenvalues separately and this consideration is dealt with by v?. 1.2 Analysis We provide a sketch of the analysis of Algorithm 1. Please see our technical report for full details. The analysis hinges on two key lemmas that we now present. In the following lemma, we analyze the behavior of the squared error of predictions based on an incorrect estimator ?? 6= ? verses the squared error of using the true parameter vector ?. Specifically, we show that the squared error of the former is very likely to be larger than the latter when the predictions based on ?? (of the form ??T x for input x) are highly inaccurate. The proof uses Hoeffding?s bound and is omitted. 3 ? ? Lemma 1 Let ? ? Rn and ?? ? Rn be two fixed parameter vectors satisfying ||?|| ? 1 and ||?|| 1. Suppose that (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym ) is any sequence of samples satisfying xi ? Rn , yi ? R, ||xi || ? 1, yi ? [?1, 1], E[yi |xi ] = ?T xi , and Var[yi |xi ] ? ? 2 . For any 0 < ? 0 < 1 and fixed positive constant z, if m X p ? T xi ]2 ? 2 8m ln(2/?) + z, [(? ? ?) (4) i=1 then m m X X (yi ? ??T xi )2 > (yi ? ?T xi )2 + z i=1 0 (5) i=1 with probability at least 1 ? 2? . The following lemma, whose proof is fairly straight-forward and therefore omitted, relates the error of an estimate ??T x for a fixed input x based on an inaccurate estimator ?? to the quantities ||? q ||, qP m T 2 ? ? ||? v ||, and ?E (?) := [(? ? ?) X(i)] . Recall that when ||? q || and ||? v || are both small, our i=1 algorithm becomes confident of the least-squares estimate. In precisely this case, the lemma shows ? T x| is bounded by a quantity proportional to ?E (?). ? that |(? ? ?) ? ? Lemma 2 Let ? ? Rn and ?? ? Rn be two fixed parameter vectors satisfying ||?|| ? 1 and ||?|| 1. Suppose that (x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym ) is any sequence of samples satisfying xi ? Rn , yi ? R, ? ||xi || ? 1, yi ? [?1, q 1]. Let x ? Rn be any vector. Let q? and v? be defined as above. Let ?E (?) Pm ?T 2 denote the error term i=1 [(? ? ?) xi ] . We have that ? T x| ? ||? ? + 2||? |(? ? ?) q ||?E (?) v ||. (6) Proof sketch: (of Theorem 1) The proof has three steps. The first is to bound the sample complexity of the algorithm (the number of times the algorithm makes a prediction of ?), in terms of the input parameters ?1 and ?2 . The second is to choose the parameters ?1 and ?2 . The third is to show that, with high probability, every valid prediction made by the algorithm is accurate. Step 1 We derive an upper bound m ? on the number of timesteps for which either ||? q || > ?1 holds or ||? v || > ?2 holds. Observing that the algorithm trains on only those samples experienced during pricisely these timesteps and applying Lemma 13 from the paper by Auer (2002) we have that   n ln(n/?1 ) n m ? =O + 2 . (7) ?21 ?2 2 , and ?2 ln(1/(?)) ln(n) Step 2 We choose ?1 = C ?Q ln Q, where C is a constant and Q = ? n = /4. Step 3 Consider some fixed timestep t during the execution of Algorithm 1 such that the algorithm makes a valid prediction (not ?). Let ?? denote the solution of the norm-constrained least-squares minimization (line 6 in the pseudocode). By definition, since ? was not predicted, we have that q? ? ?1 and v? ? ?2 . We would like to show that |??T x ? ?T x| ?  so that Condition 1 of Definition 2 is satisfied. Suppose not, namely that |(?? ? ?)T x| > . Using Lemma 2, we can lower bound the ? 2 = Pm [(? ? ?) ? T X(i)]2 , where m denotes the number of rows of the matrix X quantity ?E (?) i=1 (equivalently, the number of samples obtained used by the algorithm for training, which we upperbounded by m), ? and X(i) denotes the transpose of the ith row of X. Finally, we would like to apply Lemma 1 to prove that, with high probability, the squared error of ?? will be larger than the squared error of predictions based on the true parameter vector ?, which contradicts the fact that ?? Pm was chosen to minimize the term i=1 (yi ? ??T X(i))2 . One problem with this approach is that Lemma 1 applies to a fixed ?? and the least-squares computation of Algorithm 1 may choose any ?? in ? ? 1}. Therefore, we use a uniform discretization to form a the infinite set {?? ? Rn such that ||?|| 4 ? To guarantee finite cover of [?1, 1]n and apply the theorem to the member of the cover closest to ?. that the total failure probability of the algorithm is at most ?, we apply the union bound over all (finitely many) applications of Lemma 1. 2 1.3 Notes In our formulation of KLRP we assumed an upper bound of 1 on the the two-norm of the inputs xi , outputs yi , and the true parameter vector ?. By appropriate scaling of the inputs and/or outputs, we could instead allow a larger (but still finite) bound. Our analysis of Algorithm 1 showed that it is possible to solve KLRP with polynomial sample complexity (where the sample complexity is defined as the number of timesteps t that the algorithm outputs ? for the current input xt ), with high probability. We note that the algorithm also has polynomial computational complexity per timestep, given the tractability of solving norm-constrained least-squares problems (see Chapter 12 of the book by Golub and Van Loan (1996)). 1.4 Related Work Work on linear regression is abundant in the statistics community (Seber & Lee, 2003). The use of the quantities v? and q? to quantify the level of certainty of the linear estimator was introduced by Auer (2002). Our analysis differs from that by Auer (2002) because we do not assume that the input vectors xi are fixed ahead of time, but rather that they may be chosen in an adversarial manner. This property is especially important for the application of regression techniques to the full RL problem, rather than the Associative RL problem considered by Auer (2002). Our analysis has a similar flavor to some, but not all, parts of the analysis by Abbeel and Ng (2005). However, a crucial difference of our framework and analysis is the use of output ? to signify uncertainty in the current estimate, which allows for efficient exploration in the application to RL as described in the next section. 2 Application to Reinforcement Learning The general reinforcement-learning (RL) problem is how to enable an agent (computer program, robot, etc.) to maximize an external reward signal by acting in an unknown environment. To ensure a well-defined problem, we make assumptions about the types of possible worlds. To make the problem tractable, we settle for near-optimal (rather than optimal) behavior on all but a polynomial number of timesteps, as well as a small allowable failure probability. This type of performance metric was introduced by Kakade (2003), in the vein of recent RL analyses (Kearns & Singh, 2002; Brafman & Tennenholtz, 2002). In this section, we formalize a specific RL problem where the environment is mathematically modeled by a continuous MDP taken from a rich class of MDPs. We present an algorithm and prove that it learns efficiently within this class. The algorithm is ?model-based? in the sense that it constructs an explicit MDP that it uses to reason about future actions in the true, but unknown, MDP environment. The algorithm uses, as a subroutine, any admissible algorithm for the KWIK Linear Regression Problem introduced in Section 1. Although our main result is for a specific class of continuous MDPs, albeit an interesting and previously studied one, our technique is more general and should be applicable to many other classes of MDPs as described in the conclusion. 2.1 Problem Formulation The model we use is slightly modified from the model described by Abbeel and Ng (2005). The main difference is that we consider discounted rather than undiscounted MDPs and we don?t require the agent to have a ?reset? action that takes it to a specified start state (or distribution). Let PS denote the set of all (measurable) probability distributions over the set S. The environment is described by a discounted MDP M = hS, A, T, R, ?i, where S = RnS is the state space, A = RnA is the action space, T : S ? A ? PS is the unknown transition dynamics, ? ? [0, 1) is the discount factor, and R : S ? A ? R is the known reward function.1 For each timestep t, let xt ? S denote the current 1 All of our results can easily be extended to the case of an unknown reward function with a suitable linearity assumption. 5 state and ut ? A the current action. The transition dynamics T satisfy xt+1 = M ?(xt , ut ) + wt , nS +nA (8) n where xt+1 ? S, ?(?, ?) : R ? R is a (basis or kernel) function satisfying ||?(?, ?)|| ? 1, and M is an nS ? n matrix. We assume that the 2-norm of each row of M is bounded by 1.2 Each component of the noise term wt ? RnS is chosen i.i.d. from a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance ? 2 for a known constant ?. If an MDP satisfies the above conditions we say that it is linearly parameterized, because the next-state xt+1 is a linear function of the vector ?(xt , ut ) (which describes the current state and action) plus a noise term. We assume that the learner (also called the agent) receives nS , nA , n, R, ?(?, ?), ?, and ? as input, with T initially being unknown. The learning problem is defined as follows. The agent always occupies a single state s of the MDP M . The agent is given s and chooses an action a. It then receives an immediate reward r ? R(s, a) and is transported to a next state s0 ? T (s, a). This procedure then repeats forever. The first state occupied by the agent may be chosen arbitrarily. A policy is any strategy for choosing actions. We assume (unless noted otherwise) that rewards all lie ? in the interval [0, 1]. For any policy ?, let VM (s) (Q?M (s, a)) denote the discounted, infinite-horizon value (action-value) function for ? in M (which may be omitted from the notation) from state s. Specifically, let st and rt be the tth encountered state and received reward, respectively, resulting P ? j from execution of policy ? in some MDP M from state s0 . Then, VM (s) = E[ ? ? r |s j 0 = s]. j=0 ? The optimal policy is denoted ? ? and has value functions VM (s) and Q?M (s, a). Note that a policy cannot have a value greater than vmax := 1/(1 ? ?) by the assumption of a maximum reward of 1. 2.2 Algorithm First, we discuss how to use an admissible learning algorithm for KLRP to construct an MDP model. We proceed by specifying the transition model for each of the (infinitely many) state-action pairs. Given a fixed state-action pair (s, a), we need to estimate the next-state distribution of the MDP from past experience, which consists of input state-action pairs (transformed by the nonlinear function ?) and output next states. For each state component i ? {1, . . . , nS }, we have a separate learning problem that can be solved by any instance Ai of an admissible KLRP algorithm.3 If each instance makes a valid prediction (not ?), then we simply construct an approximate next-state distribution whose ith component is normally distributed with variance ? 2 and whose mean is given by the ? prediction of Ai (this procedure is equivalent to constructing an approximate transition matrix M ? whose ith row is equal to the transpose of the approximate parameter vector ? learned by Ai ). If any instance of our KLRP algorithm predicts ? for state-action pair (s, a), then we cannot estimate the next-state distribution. Instead, we make s highly rewarding in the MDP model to encourage exploration, as done in the R-MAX algorithm (Brafman & Tennenholtz, 2002). Following the terminology introduced by Kearns and Singh (2002), we call such a state (state-action) an ?unknown? state (state-action) and we ensure that the value function of our model assigns vmax (maximum possible) to state s. The standard way to satisfy this condition for finite MDPs is to make the transition function for action a from state s a self-loop with reward 1 (yielding a value of vmax = 1/(1 ? ?) for state s). We can affect the exact same result in a continuous MDP by adding a component to each state vector s and to each vector ?(s, a) for every state-action pair (s, a). If (s, a) is ?unknown? we set the value of the additional components (of ?(s, a) and s) to 1, otherwise we set it to 0. We add an additional row and column to M that preserves this extra component (during the transformation from ?(s, a) to the next state s0 ) and otherwise doesn?t change the next-state distribution. Finally, we give a reward of 1 to any unknown state, leaving rewards for the known states unchanged. Pseudocode for the resulting KWIK-RMAX algorithm is provided in Algorithm 2. Theorem 2 For any  and ?, the KWIK-RMAX algorithm executes an -optimal policy on at most a polynomial (in n, nS , 1/, 1/?, and 1/(1 ? ?)) number of steps, with probability at least 1 ? ?. 2 The algorithm can be modified to deal with bounds (on the norms of the rows of M ) that are larger than one. 3 One minor technical detail is that our KLRP setting requires bounded outputs (see Definition 1) while our application to MBRL requires dealing with normal, and hence unbounded outputs. This is easily dealt with by ignoring any extremely large (or small) outputs and showing that the resulting norm of the truncated normal distribution learned by the each instance Ai is very close to the norm of the untruncated distribution. 6 Algorithm 2 KWIK-RMAX Algorithm 0: Inputs: nS , nA , n, R, ?(?, ?), ?, ?, , ?, and admissible learning algorithm ModelLearn. 1: for all state components i ? {1, . . . , nS } do 2 ? 2: Initialize a new instantiation of ModelLearn, denoted Ai , with inputs C (1??) and ?/nS , 2 n for inputs  and ?, respectively, in Definition 2, and where C is some constant determined by the analysis. 3: end for 4: Initialize an MDP Model with state space S, action space A, reward function R, discount factor ? and transition function specified by Ai for i ? {1, . . . , nS } as described above. 5: for t = 1, 2, 3, ? ? ? do 6: Let s denote the state at time t. 7: Choose action a := ? ? ? (s) where ? ? ? is the optimal policy of the MDP Model. 0 8: Let s be the next state after executing action a. 9: for all factors i ? {1, . . . , n} do 10: Present input-output pair (?(s, a), s0 (i)) to Ai,a . 11: end for 12: Update MDP Model. 13: end for 2.3 Analysis Proof sketch: (of Theorem 2) ? It can be shown that, with high probability, policy ? ? ? is either an -optimal policy (V ?? (s) ? V ? (s) ? ) or it is very likely to lead to an unknown state. However, the number of times the latter event can occur is bounded by the maximum number of times the instances Ai can predict ?, which is polynomial in the relevant parameters. 2 2.4 The Planning Assumption We have shown that the KWIK-RMAX Algorithm acts near-optimally on all but a small (polynomial) number of timesteps, with high probability. Unfortunately, to do so, the algorithm must solve its internal MDP model completely and exactly. It is easy to extend the analysis to allow approximate solution. However, it is not clear whether even this approximate computation can be done efficiently. In any case, discretization of the state space can be used, which yields computational complexity that is exponential in the number of (state and action) dimensions of the problem, similar to the work of Chow and Tsitsiklis (1991). Alternatively, sparse sampling can be used, whose complexity has no dependence on the size of the state space but depends exponentially on the time horizon (? 1/(1 ? ?)) (Kearns et al., 1999). Practically, there are many promising techniques that make use of value-function approximation for fast and efficient solution (planning) of MDPs (Sutton & Barto, 1998). Nevertheless, it remains future work to fully analyze the complexity of planning. 2.5 Related Work The general exploration problem in continuous state spaces was considered by Kakade et al. (2003), and at a high level our approach to exploration is similar in spirit. However, a direct application of Kakade et al.?s (2003) algorithm to linearly-parameterized MDPs results in an algorithm whose sample complexity scales exponentially, rather than polynomially, with the state-space dimension. That is because the analysis uses a factor of the size of the ?cover? of the metric space. Reinforcement learning in continuous MDPs with linear dynamics was studied by Fiechter (1997). However, an exact linear relationship between the current state and next state is required for this analysis to go through, while we allow the current state to be transformed (for instance, adding non-linear state features) through non-linear function ?. Furthermore, Fiechter?s algorithm relied on the existence of a ?reset? action and a specific form of reward function. These assumptions admit a solution that follows a fixed policy and doesn?t depend on the actual history of the agent or the underlying MDP. The model that we consider, linearly parameterized MDPs, is taken directly from the work by Abbeel and Ng (2005), where it was justified in part by an application to robotic helicopter flight. In 7 that work, a provably efficient algorithm was developed in the apprenticeship RL setting. In this setting, the algorithm is given limited access (polynomial number of calls) to a fixed policy (called the teacher?s policy). With high probably, a policy is learned that is nearly as good as the teacher?s policy. Although this framework is interesting and perhaps more useful for certain applications (such as helicopter flying), it requires a priori expert knowledge (to construct the teacher) and alleviates the problem of exploration altogether. In addition, Abbeel and Ng?s (2005) algorithm also relies heavily on a reset assumption, while ours does not. Conclusion We have provided a provably efficient RL algorithm that learns a very rich and important class of MDPs with continuous state and action spaces. Yet, many real-world MDPs do not satisfy the linearity assumption, a concern we now address. Our RL algorithm utilized a specific online linear regression algorithm. We have identified certain interesting and general properties (see Definition 2) of this particular algorithm that support online exploration. These properties are meaningful without the linearity assumption and should be useful for development of new algorithms for different modeling assumptions. Our real goal of the paper is to work towards developing a general technique for applying regression algorithms (as black boxes) to model-based reinforcement-learning algorithms in a robust and formally justified way. We believe the approach used with linear regression can be repeated for other important classes, but we leave the details as interesting future work. Acknowledgements We thank NSF and DARPA IPTO for support. References Abbeel, P., & Ng, A. Y. (2005). Exploration and apprenticeship learning in reinforcement learning. ICML ?05: Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on Machine learning (pp. 1?8). New York, NY, USA: ACM Press. Auer, P. (2002). Using confidence bounds for exploitation-exploration trade-offs. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3, 397?422. Brafman, R. I., & Tennenholtz, M. (2002). R-MAX?a general polynomial time algorithm for near-optimal reinforcement learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3, 213?231. Chow, C.-S., & Tsitsiklis, J. N. (1991). An optimal one-way multigrid algorithmfor discrete time stochastic control. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 36, 898?914. Fiechter, C.-N. (1997). PAC adaptive control of linear systems. Tenth Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory (COLT) (pp. 72?80). Golub, G. H., & Van Loan, C. F. (1996). Matrix computations. Baltimore, Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 3rd edition. Kakade, S. M. (2003). On the sample complexity of reinforcement learning. Doctoral dissertation, Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London. Kakade, S. M. K., Kearns, M. J., & Langford, J. C. (2003). Exploration in metric state spaces. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML-03). Kearns, M., Mansour, Y., & Ng, A. Y. (1999). A sparse sampling algorithm for near-optimal planning in large Markov decision processes. Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-99) (pp. 1324?1331). Kearns, M. J., & Singh, S. P. (2002). Near-optimal reinforcement learning in polynomial time. Machine Learning, 49, 209?232. Ng, A. Y., Kim, H. J., Jordan, M. I., & Sastry, S. (2003). Autonomous helicopter flight via reinforcement learning. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 16 (NIPS-03). Seber, G. A. F., & Lee, A. J. (2003). Linear regression analysis. Wiley-Interscience. Sutton, R. S., & Barto, A. G. (1998). Reinforcement learning: An introduction. The MIT Press. Tesauro, G. (1994). TD-Gammon, a self-teaching backgammon program, achieves master-level play. Neural Computation, 6, 215?219. 8
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Semi-Supervised Multitask Learning Qiuhua Liu, Xuejun Liao, and Lawrence Carin Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Duke University Durham, NC 27708-0291, USA Abstract A semi-supervised multitask learning (MTL) framework is presented, in which M parameterized semi-supervised classifiers, each associated with one of M partially labeled data manifolds, are learned jointly under the constraint of a softsharing prior imposed over the parameters of the classifiers. The unlabeled data are utilized by basing classifier learning on neighborhoods, induced by a Markov random walk over a graph representation of each manifold. Experimental results on real data sets demonstrate that semi-supervised MTL yields significant improvements in generalization performance over either semi-supervised single-task learning (STL) or supervised MTL. 1 Introduction Supervised learning has proven an effective technique for learning a classifier when the quantity of labeled data is large enough to represent a sufficient sample from the true labeling function. Unfortunately, a generous provision of labeled data is often not available since acquiring the label of a datum is expensive in many applications. A classifier supervised by a limited amount of labeled data is known to generalize poorly even if it produces zero training errors. There has been much recent work on improving the generalization of classifiers based on using information sources beyond the labeled data. These studies fall into two major categories: (i) semi-supervised learning [9, 12, 15, 10] and (ii) multitask learning (MTL) [3, 1, 13]. The former employs the information from the data manifold, in which the manifold information provided by the usually abundant unlabeled data is exploited, while the latter leverages information from related tasks. In this paper we attempt to integrate the benefits offered by semi-supervised learning and MTL, by proposing semi-supervised multitask learning. The semi-supervised MTL framework consists of M semi-supervised classifiers coupled by a joint prior distribution over the parameters of all classifiers. Each classifier provides the solution for a partially labeled data classification task. The solutions for the M tasks are obtained simultaneously under the unified framework. Existing semi-supervised algorithms are often not directly amenable to MTL extensions. Transductive algorithms directly operate on labels. Since the label is a local property of the associated data point, information sharing must be performed at the level of data locations, instead of at the task level. The inductive algorithm in [10] employs a data-dependent prior to encode manifold information. Since the information transferred from related tasks is also often represented by a prior, the two priors will compete and need be balanced; moreover, this precludes a Dirichlet process [6] or its variants to represent the sharing prior across tasks, because the base distribution of a Dirichlet process cannot be dependent on any particular manifold. We develop a new semi-supervised formulation, which enjoys several nice properties that make the formulation immediately amenable to an MTL extension. First, the formulation has a parametric classifier built for each task, thus multitask learning can be performed efficiently at the task level, using the parameters of the classifiers. Second, the formulation encodes the manifold information of each task inside the associated likelihood function, sparing the prior for exclusive use by the information from related tasks. Third, the formulation lends itself to a Dirichlet process, allowing the tasks to share information in a complex manner. The new semi-supervised formulation is used as a key component of our semi-supervised MTL framework. In the MTL setting, we have M partially labeled data manifolds, each defining a classification task and involving design of a semi-supervised classifier. The M classifiers are designed simultaneously within a unified sharing structure. The key component of the sharing structure is a soft variant of the Dirichlet process (DP), which implements a soft-sharing prior over the parameters of all classifiers. The soft-DP retains the clustering property of DP and yet does not require exact sharing of parameters, which increases flexibility and promotes robustness in information sharing. 2 Parameterized Neighborhood-Based Classification The new semi-supervised formulation, termed parameterized neighborhood-based classification (PNBC), represents the class probability of a data point by mixing over all data points in the neighborhood, which is formed via Markov random walk over a graph representation of the manifold. 2.1 Neighborhoods Induced by Markov Random Walk Let G = (X , W) be a weighted graph such that X = {x1 , x2 , ? ? ?, xn } is a set of vertices that coincide with the data points in a finite data manifold, and W = [wij ]n?n is the affinity matrix with the (i, j)-th element wij indicating the immediate affinity between data points xi and xj . We follow [12, 15] to define wij = exp(?0.5 kxi ? xj k2 /?i2 ), where k ? k is the Euclidean norm and ?ij > 0. A Markov random walk on graph G = (X , W) is characterized by a matrix of one-step transition probabilities A = [aij ]n?n , where aij is the probability of transiting from xi to xj via a single step w and is given by aij = Pn ij w [4]. Let B = [bij ]n?n = At . Then (i, j)-th element bij represents k=1 ik the probability of transiting from xi to xj in t steps. Data point xj is said to be a t-step neighbor of xi if bij > 0. The t-step neighborhood of xi , denoted as Nt (xi ), is defined by all t-step neighbors of xi along with the associated t-step transition probabilities, i.e., Nt (xi ) = {(xj , bij ) : bij > 0, xj ? X }. The appropriateness of a t-step neighborhood depends on the right choice of t. A rule of choosing t is given in [12], based on maximizing the margin of the associated classifier on both labeled and unlabeled data points. The ?i in specifying wij represents the step-size (distance traversed in a single step) for xi to reach its immediate neighbor, and we have used a distinct ? for each data point. Location-dependent step-sizes allow one to account for possible heterogeneities in the data manifold ? at locations with dense data distributions a small step-size is suitable, while at locations with sparse data distributions a large step-size is appropriate. A simple choice of heterogeneous ? is to let ?i be related to the distance between xi and close-by data points, where closeness is measured by Euclidean distance. Such a choice ensures each data point is immediately connected to some neighbors. 2.2 Formulation of the PNBC Classifier Let p? (yi |xi , ?) be a base classifier parameterized by ?, which gives the probability of class label yi of data point xi , given xi alone (which is a zero-step neighborhood of xi ). The base classifier can be implemented by any parameterized probabilistic classifier. For binary classification with y ? {?1, 1}, the base classifier can be chosen as logistic regression with parameters ?, which expresses the conditional class probability as p? (yi |xi , ?) = [1 + exp(?yi ? T xi )]?1 (1) where a constant element 1 is assumed to be prefixed to each x (the prefixed x is still denoted as x for notational simplicity), and thus the first element in ? is a bias term. Let p(yi |Nt (xi ), ?) denote a neighborhood-based classifier parameterized by ?, representing the probability of class label yi for xi , given the neighborhood of xi . The PNBC classifier is defined as a mixture Pn p(yi |Nt (xi ), ?) = j=1 bij p? (yi |xj , ?) (2) where the j-th component is the base classifier applied to (xj , yi ) and the associated mixing proportion is defined by the probability of transiting from xi to xj in t steps. Since the magnitude of bij automatically determines the contribution of xj to the mixture, we let index j run over the entire X for notational simplicity. The utility of unlabeled data in (2) is conspicuous ? in order for xi to be labeled yi , each neighbor xj must be labeled consistently with yi , with the strength of consistency proportional to bij ; in such a manner, yi implicitly propagates over the neighborhood of xi . By taking neighborhoods into account, it is possible to obtain an accurate estimate of ?, based on a small amount of labeled data. The over-fitting problem associated with limited labeled data is ameliorated in the PNBC formulation, through enforcing consistent labeling over each neighborhood. Let L ? {1, 2, ? ? ? , n} denote the index set of labeled data in X . Assuming the labels are conditionally independent, we write the neighborhood-conditioned likelihood function ? ? Q Q Pn p {yi , i ? L}|{Nt (xi ) : i ? L}, ? = i?L p(yi |Nt (xi ), ?) = i?L j=1 bij p? (yi |xj , ?) (3) 3 3.1 The Semi-Supervised MTL Framework The sharing prior Suppose we are given M tasks, defined by M partially labeled data sets m Dm = {xm i : i = 1, 2, ? ? ? , nm } ? {yi : i ? Lm } for m = 1, ? ? ? , M , where yim is the class label of xm i and Lm ? {1, 2, ? ? ? , nm } is the index set of labeled data in task m. We consider M PNBC classifiers, parameterized by ?m , m = 1, ? ? ? , M , with ?m responsible for task m. The M classifiers are not independent but coupled by a prior joint distribution over their parameters QM p(?1 , ? ? ? , ?M ) = m=1 p(?m |?1 , ? ? ? , ?m?1 ) (4) with the conditional distributions in the product defined by ? ? Pm?1 1 ?p(?m |?) + l=1 N (?m ; ?l , ? 2 I) p(?m |?1 , ? ? ? , ?m?1 ) = ?+m?1 (5) where ? > 0, p(?m |?) is a base distribution parameterized by ?, N ( ? ; ?l , ? 2 I) is a normal distribution with mean ?l and covariance matrix ? 2 I. As discussed below, the prior in (4) is linked to Dirichlet processes and thus is more general than a parametric prior, as used, for example, in [5]. Each normal distribution represents the prior transferred from a previous task; it is the metaknowledge indicating how the present task should be learned, based on the experience with a previous task. It is through these normal distributions that information sharing between tasks is enforced. Taking into account the data likelihood, unrelated tasks cannot share since they have dissimilar solutions and forcing them to share the same solution will decrease their respective likelihood; whereas, related tasks have close solutions and sharing information helps them to find their solutions and improve their data likelihoods. The base distribution represents the baseline prior, which is exclusively used when there are no previous tasks available, as is seen from (5) by setting m = 1. When there are m ? 1 previous ? , and uses the prior transferred from each tasks, one uses the baseline prior with probability ?+m?1 1 of the m ? 1 previous tasks with probability ?+m?1 . The ? balances the baseline prior and the priors imposed by previous tasks. The role of baseline prior decreases as m increases, which is in agreement with our intuition, since the information from previous tasks increase with m. The formulation in (5) is suggestive of the polya urn representation of a Dirichlet process (DP) [2]. The difference here is that we have used a normal distribution to replace Dirac delta in Dirichlet processes. Since N (?m |?l , ? 2 I) approaches Dirac delta ?(?m ? ?l ) as ? 2 ? 0, we recover the Dirichlet process in the limit case when limit case when ? 2 ? 0. The motivation behind the formulation in (5) is twofold. First, a normal distribution can be regarded as a soft version of the Dirac delta. While the Dirac delta requires two tasks to have exactly the same ? when sharing occurs, the soft delta only requires sharing tasks to have similar ??s. The soft sharing may therefore be more consistent with situations in practical applications. Second, the normal distribution is analytically more appealing than the Dirac delta and allows simple maximum a posteriori (MAP) solutions. This is an attractive property considering that most classifiers do not have conjugate priors for their parameters and Bayesian learning cannot be performed exactly. Under the sharing prior in (4), the current task is equally influenced by each previous task but is influenced unevenly by future tasks ? a distant future task has less influence than a near future task. The ordering of the tasks imposed by (4) may in principle affect performance, although we have not found this to be an issue in the experimental results. Alternatively, one may obtain a sharing prior that does not depend on task ordering, by modifying (5) as ? ? P 1 2 p(?m |??m ) = ?+M (6) l6=m N (?m ; ?l , ? I) ?1 ?p(?m |?) + where ??m = {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M } \ {?m }. The prior joint distribution of {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M } associated with the full conditionals in (6) is not analytically available, nether is the corresponding posterior joint distribution, which causes technical difficulties in performing MAP estimation. 3.2 Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) Estimation Assuming that, given {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M }, the class labels of different tasks are conditionally independent, the joint likelihood function over all tasks can be written as ? ? m M M p {yim , i ? Lm }M m=1 |{Nt (xi ) : i ? Lm }m=1 , {?m }m=1 QM Q Pnm m ? m m = m=1 i?Lm j=1 bij p (yi |xj , ?m ) (7) where the m-th term in the product is taken from (3), with the superscript m indicating the task index. Note that the neighborhoods are built for each task independently of other tasks, thus a random walk is always restricted to the same task (the one where the starting data point belongs) and can never traverse multiple tasks. From (4), (5), and (7), one can write the logarithm of the joint posterior of {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M }, up to a constant translation that does not depend on {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M }, ? ? m M m M `MAP (?1 , ? ? ? , ?M ) = ln p {?m }M m=1 |{yi , i ? Lm }m=1 , {Nt (xi ) : i ? Lm }m=1 ? ? P Pnm m ? m m Pm?1 PM ? ? bij p (yi |xj , ?m ) (8) = m=1 ln ?p(?m |?) + l=1 N (?m ; ?l , ? 2 I) + i?Lmln j=1 We seek the parameters {?1 , ? ? ? , ?M } that maximize the log-posterior, which is equivalent to simultaneously maximizing the prior in (4) and the likelihood function in (7). As seen from (5), the prior tends to have similar ??s across tasks (similar ??s increase the prior); however sharing between unrelated tasks is discouraged, since each task requires a distinct ? to make its likelihood large. As a result, to make the prior and the likelihood large at the same time, one must let related tasks have similar ??s. Although any optimization techniques can be applied to maximize the objective function (8), expectation maximization (EM) is particularly suitable, since the objective function involves summations under the logarithmic operation. To conserve space the algorithmic details are omitted here. Utilization of the manifold information and the information from related tasks has greatly reduced the hypothesis space. Therefore, point MAP estimation in semi-supervised MTL will not suffer as much from overfitting as in supervised STL. This argument will be supported by the experimental results in Section 4.2, where semi-supervised MTL outperforms both supervised MTL and supervised STL, although the former is based on MAP and the latter two are based on Bayesian learning. With MAP estimation, one obtains the parameters of the base classifier in (1) for each task, which can be employed to predict the class label of any data point in the associated task, regardless of whether the data point has been seen during training. In the special case when predictions are desired only for the unlabeled data points seen during training (transductive learning), one can alternatively employ the PNBC classifier in (2) to perform the predictions. 4 Experimental Results First we consider semi-supervised learning on a single task and establish the competitive performance of the PNBC in comparison with existing semi-supervised algorithms. Then we demonstrate the performance improvements achieved by semi-supervised MTL, relative to semi-supervised STL and supervised MTL. Throughout this section, the base classifier in (1) is logistic regression. 4.1 Performance of the PNBC on a Single Task WDBC PIMA 0.72 0.7 0.68 PNBC Szummer & Jaakkola Logistic GRF GRF Transductive SVM 0.66 0.64 0.62 20 40 60 Number of labeled data 0.94 0.92 PNBC Szummer & Jaakkola Logistic GRF GRF Transductive SVM 0.9 0.88 0.86 80 Accuracy on unlabeled data Accuracy on unlabeled data 0.74 Accuracy on unlabeled data Ionosphere 0.96 20 40 60 Number of labeled data 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.7 0.65 80 PNBC Szummer & Jaakkola Logistic GRF GRF Transductive SVM PNBC?II 0.75 20 40 60 Number of Labeled Data 80 0.7 0.6 PNBC Logistic GRF 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 Number of Unlabeled Samples 120 0.8 0.7 0.6 PNBC Logistic GRF 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 Number of Unlabeled Samples 120 30 labeled samples 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0 PNBC Logistic GRF 20 40 60 80 100 Number of Unlabeled Samples 120 Accuracy on separated test data 0.8 20 labeled samples 0.9 Accuracy on separated test data 10 labeled samples 0.9 Accuracy on separated test data Accuracy on separated test data Figure 1: Transductive results of the PNBC. The horizontal axis is the size of XL . 40 labeled samples 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 PNBC Logistic GRF 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Number of Unlabeled Samples Figure 2: Inductive results of the PNBC on Ionosphere. The horizontal axis is the size of XU . The PNBC is evaluated on three benchmark data sets ? Pima Indians Diabetes Database (PIMA), Wisconsin Diagnostic Breast Cancer (WDBC) data, and Johns Hopkins University Ionosphere database (Ionosphere), which are taken from the UCI machine learning repository [11]. The evaluation is performed in comparison to four existing semi-supervised learning algorithms, namely, the transductive SVM [9], the algorithm of Szummer & Jaakkola [12], GRF [15], and Logistic GRF [10]. The performance is evaluated in terms of classification accuracy, defined as the ratio of the number of correctly classified data over the total number of data being tested. We consider two testing modes: transductive and inductive. In the transductive mode, the test data are the unlabeled data that are used in training the semi-supervised algorithms; in the inductive mode, the test data are a set of holdout data unseen during training. We follow the same procedures as used in [10] to perform the experiments. Denote by X any of the three benchmark data sets and Y the associated set of class labels. In the transductive mode, we randomly sample XL ? X and assume the associated class labels YL are available; the semi-supervised algorithms are trained by X ? YL and tested on X \ XL . In the inductive mode, we randomly sample two disjoint data subsets XL ? X and XU ? X , and assume the class labels YL associated with XL are available; the semisupervised algorithms are trained by XL ? YL ? XU and tested on 200 data randomly sampled from X \ (XL ? XU ). The comparison results are summarized in Figures 1 and 2, where the results of the PNBC and the algorithm of Szummer & Jaakkola are calculated by us, and the results of remaining algorithms are cited from [10]. The algorithm of Szummer & Jaakkola [12] and the PNBC use ?i = minj kxi ? xj k/3 and t = 100; learning of the PNBC is based on MAP estimation. Each curve in the figures is a result averaged from T independent trials, with T = 20 for the transductive results and T = 50 for the inductive results. In the inductive case, the comparison is between the proposed algorithm and the Logistic GRF, as the others are transductive algorithms. For the PNBC, we can either use the base classifier in (1) or the PNBC classifier in (2) to predict the labels of unlabeled data seen in training (the transductive mode). In the inductive mode, however, the {bij } are not available for the test data (unseen in training) since they are not in the graph representation, therefore we can only employ the base classifier. In the legends of Figures 1 and 2, a suffix ?II? to PNBC indicates that the PNBC classifier in (2) is employed in testing; when no suffix is attached, the base classifier is employed in testing. Figures 1 and 2 show that the PNBC outperforms all the competing algorithms in general, regardless of the number of labeled data points. The improvements are particularly significant on PIMA and Ionosphere. As indicated in Figure 1(c), employing manifold information in testing by using (2) can improve classification accuracy in the transductive learning case. The margin of improvements achieved by the PNBC in the inductive learning case is striking and encouraging ? as indicated by the error bars in Figure 2, the PNBC significantly outperforms Logistic GRF in almost all individual trials. Figure 2 also shows that the advantage of the PNBC becomes more conspicuous with decreasing amount of labeled data considered during training. 4.2 Performance of the Semi-Supervised MTL Algorithm We compare the proposed semi-supervised MTL against: (a) semi-supervised single-task learning (STL), (b) supervised MTL, (c) supervised STL, (d) supervised pooling; STL refers to designing M classifiers independently, each for the corresponding task, and pooling refers to designing a single classifier based on the data of all tasks. Since we have evaluated the PNBC in Section 4.1 and established its effectiveness, we will not repeat the evaluation here and employ PNBC as a representative semi-supervised learning algorithm in semi-supervised STL. To replicate the experiments in [13], we employ AUC as the performance measure, where AUC stands for area under the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve [7]. The basic setup of the semi-supervised MTL algorithm is as follows. The tasks are ordered as they are when the data are provided to the experimenter (we have randomly permuted the tasks and found the performance does not change much). A separate t-neighborhood is employed to represent the manifold information (consisting of labeled and unlabeled data points) for each task, where the step-size at each data point is one third of the shortest distance to the remaining points and t is set to half the number of data points. The base prior p(?m |?) = N (?m ; 0, ? 2 I) and the soft delta is N (?m ; ?l , ? 2 I), where ? = ? = 1. The ? balancing the base prior and the soft delta?s is 0.3. These settings represent the basic intuition of the experimenter; they have not been tuned in any way and therefore do not necessarily represent the best settings for the semi-supervised MTL algorithm. 0.8 2 4 0.7 0.65 Supervised STL Supervised Pooling Supervised MTL Semi?Supervised STL Semi?Supervised MTL 0.6 0.55 20 40 60 80 100 120 Number of Labeled Data in Each Task (a) 140 Index of Landmine Field Average AUC on 19 tasks 0.75 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Index of Landmine Field 16 18 (b) Figure 3: (a) Performance of the semi-supervised MTL algorithm on landmine detection, in comparison to the remaining five algorithms. (b) The Hinton diagram of between-task similarity when there are 140 labeled data in each task. Landmine Detection First we consider the remote sensing problem considered in [13], based on data collected from real landmines. In this problem, there are a total of 29 sets of data, collected from various landmine fields. Each data point is represented by a 9-dimensional feature vector extracted from radar images. The class label is binary (mine or false mine). The data are available at http://www.ee.duke.edu/?lcarin/LandmineData.zip. Each of the 29 data sets defines a task, in which we aim to find landmines with a minimum number of false alarms. To make the results comparable to those in [13], we follow the authors there and take data sets 1-10 and 16-24 to form 19 tasks. Of the 19 selected data sets, 1-10 are collected at foliated regions and 11-19 are collected at regions that are bare earth or desert. Therefore we expect two dominant clusters of tasks, corresponding to the two different types of ground surface conditions. To replicate the experiments in [13], we perform 100 independent trials, in each of which we randomly select a subset of data for which labels are assumed available, train the semi-supervised MTL and semi-supervised STL classifiers, and test the classifiers on the remaining data. The AUC averaged over the 19 tasks is presented in Figure 3(a), as a function of the number of labeled data, where each curve represents the mean calculated from the 100 independent trials and the error bars represent the corresponding standard deviations. The results of supervised STL, supervised MTL, and supervised pooling are cited from [13]. Semi-supervised MTL clearly yields the best results up to 80 labeled data points; after that supervised MTL catches up but semi-supervised MTL still outperforms the remaining three algorithms by significant margins. In this example semi-supervised MTL seems relatively insensitive to the amount of labeled data; this may be attributed to the doubly enhanced information provided by the data manifold plus the related tasks, which significantly augment the information available in the limited labeled data. The superiority of supervised pooling over supervised STL on this dataset suggests that there are significant benefits offered by sharing across the tasks, which partially explains why supervised MTL eventually catches up with semi-supervised MTL. We plot in Figure 3(b) the Hinton diagram [8] of the between-task sharing matrix (an average over the 100 trials) found by the semi-supervised MTL when there are 140 labeled data in each task. 2 lk ) (normalized such that the The (m, l)-th element of similarity matrix is equal to exp(? k?m ?? 2 maximum element is one), which is represented by a square in the Hinton diagram, with a larger square indicating a larger value of the corresponding element. As seen from Figure 3(b), there is a dominant sharing among tasks 1-10 and another dominant sharing among tasks 11-19. Recall from the beginning of the section that data sets 1-10 are from foliated regions and data sets 11-19 are from regions that are bare earth or desert. Therefore, the sharing is in agreement with the similarity between tasks. Art Images Retrieval We now consider the problem of art image retrieval [14, 13], in which we have a library of 642 art images and want to retrieve the images based on a user?s preference. The preference of each user is available on a subset of images, therefore the objective is to learn the preference of each user based on a subset of training examples. Each image is represented by a vector of features and a user?s rating is represented by a binary label (like or dislike). The users? preferences are collected in a web-based survey, which can be found at http://honolulu.dbs.informatik.unimuenchen.de:8080/paintings/index.jsp. We consider the same 69 users as considered in [13], who each rated more than 100 images. The preference prediction for each user is treated as a task, with the associated set of ground truth data defined by the images rated by the user. These 69 tasks are used in our experiment to evaluate the performance of semi-supervised MTL. Since two users may give different ratings to exactly the same image, pooling the tasks together can lead to multiple labels for the same data point. For this reason, we exclude supervised pooling and semi-supervised pooling in the performance comparison. 0.62 0.61 Average AUC on 68 tasks 0.6 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 Supervised STL Supervised MTL Semi?supervised STL Semi?supervised MTL 0.53 0.52 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Number of Labeled Data for Each Task 50 55 Figure 4: Performance of the semi-supervised MTL algorithm on art image retrieval, in comparison to the remaining three algorithms. Following [13], we perform 50 independent trials, in each of which we randomly select a subset of images rated by each user, train the semi-supervised MTL and semi-supervised STL classifiers, and test the classifiers on the remaining images. The AUC averaged over the 69 tasks is presented in Figure 4, as a function of the number of labeled data (rated images), where each curve represents the mean calculated from the 50 independent trials and the error bars represent the corresponding standard deviations. The results of supervised STL and supervised MTL are cited from [13]. Semi-supervised MTL performs very well, improving upon results of the three other algorithms by significant margins in almost all individual trials (as seen from the error bars). It is noteworthy that the performance improvement achieved by semi-supervised MTL over semi-supervised STL is larger than corresponding improvement achieved by supervised MTL over supervised STL. The greater improvement demonstrates that unlabeled data can be more valuable when used along with multitask learning. The additional utility of unlabeled data can be attributed to its role in helping to find the appropriate sharing between tasks. 5 Conclusions A framework has been proposed for performing semi-supervised multitask learning (MTL). Recognizing that existing semi-supervised algorithms are not conveniently extended to an MTL setting, we have introduced a new semi-supervised formulation to allow a direct MTL extension. We have proposed a soft sharing prior, which allows each task to robustly borrow information from related tasks and is amenable to simple point estimation based on maximum a posteriori. Experimental results have demonstrated the superiority of the new semi-supervised formulation as well as the additional performance improvement offered by semi-supervised MTL. The superior performance of semi-supervised MTL on art image retrieval and landmine detection show that manifold information and the information from related tasks could play positive and complementary roles in real applications, suggesting that significant benefits can be offered in practice by semi-supervised MTL. References [1] B. Bakker and T. Heskes. Task clustering and gating for Bayesian multitask learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, pages 83?99, 2003. [2] D. Blackwell and J. MacQueen. Ferguson distributions via polya urn schemes. Annals of Statistics, 1: 353?355, 1973. [3] R. Caruana. Multitask learning. Machine Learning, 28:41?75, 1997. [4] F. R. K. Chung. Spectral Graph Theory. American Mathematical Society, 1997. [5] T. Evgeniou and M. Pontil. Regularized multi-task learning. In Proc. 17th SIGKDD Conf. on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2004. [6] T. Ferguson. A Bayesian analysis of some nonparametric problems. Annals of Statistics, 1:209?230, 1973. [7] J. 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Scan Strategies for Adaptive Meteorological Radars Victoria Manfredi, Jim Kurose Department of Computer Science University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA USA {vmanfred,kurose}@cs.umass.edu Abstract We address the problem of adaptive sensor control in dynamic resourceconstrained sensor networks. We focus on a meteorological sensing network comprising radars that can perform sector scanning rather than always scanning 360? . We compare three sector scanning strategies. The sit-and-spin strategy always scans 360? . The limited lookahead strategy additionally uses the expected environmental state K decision epochs in the future, as predicted from Kalman filters, in its decision-making. The full lookahead strategy uses all expected future states by casting the problem as a Markov decision process and using reinforcement learning to estimate the optimal scan strategy. We show that the main benefits of using a lookahead strategy are when there are multiple meteorological phenomena in the environment, and when the maximum radius of any phenomenon is sufficiently smaller than the radius of the radars. We also show that there is a trade-off between the average quality with which a phenomenon is scanned and the number of decision epochs before which a phenomenon is rescanned. 1 Introduction Traditionally, meteorological radars, such as the National Weather Service NEXRAD system, are tasked to always scan 360 degrees. In contrast, the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) Engineering Research Center [5] is developing a new generation of small, low-power but agile radars that can perform sector scanning, targeting sensing when and where the user needs are greatest. Since all meteorological phenomena cannot be now all observed all of the time with the highest degree of fidelity, the radars must decide how best to perform scanning. While we focus on the problem of how to perform sector scanning in such an adaptive meteorological sensing network, it is an instance of the larger class of problems of adaptive sensor control in dynamic resource-constrained sensor networks. Given the ability of a network of radars to perform sector scanning, how should scanning be adapted at each decision epoch? Any scan strategy must consider, for each scan action, both the expected quality with which phenomena would be observed, and the expected number of decision epochs before which phenomena would be first observed (for new phenomena) or rescanned, since not all regions are scanned every epoch under sectored scanning. Another consideration is whether to optimize myopically only over current and possibly past environmental state, or whether to additionally optimize over expected future states. In this work we examine three methods for adapting the radar scan strategy. The methods differ in the information they use to select a scan configuration at a particular decision epoch. The sit-and-spin strategy of always scanning 360 degrees is independent of any external information. The limited lookahead strategies additionally use the expected environmental state K decision epochs in the future in its decision-making. Finally, the full lookahead strategy has an infinite horizon: it uses all expected future states by casting the problem as a Markov decision process and using reinforcement learning to estimate the optimal scan strategy. All strategies, excluding sit-and-spin, work by optimizing the overall ?quality? (a term we will define 1 precisely shortly) of the sensed information about phenomena in the environment, while restricting or penalizing long inter-scan intervals. Our contributions are two-fold. We first introduce the meteorological radar control problem and show how to constrain the problem so that it is amenable to reinforcement learning methods. We then identify conditions under which the computational cost of an infinite horizon radar scan strategy such as reinforcement learning is necessary. With respect to the radar meteorological application, we show that the main benefits of considering expected future states are when there are multiple meteorological phenomena in the environment, and when the maximum radius of any phenomenon is sufficiently smaller than the radius of the radars. We also show that there is a trade-off between the average quality with which a phenomenon is scanned and the number of decision epochs before which a phenomenon is rescanned. Finally, we show that for some environments, a limited lookahead strategy is sufficient. In contrast to other work on radar control (see Section 5), we focus on tracking meteorological phenomena and the time frame over which to evaluate control decisions. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 defines the radar control problem. Section 3 describes the scan strategies we consider. Section 4 describes our evaluation framework and presents results. Section 5 reviews related work on control and resource allocation in radar and sensor networks. Finally, Section 6 summarizes this work and outlines future work. 2 Meteorological Radar Control Problem Meteorological radar sensing characteristics are such that the smaller the sector that a radar scans (until a minimum sector size is reached), the higher the quality of the data collected, and thus, the more likely it is that phenomena located within the sector are correctly identified [2]. The multiradar meteorological control problem is then as follows. We have a set of radars, with fixed locations and possibly overlapping footprints. Each radar has a set of scan actions from which it chooses. In the simplest case, a radar scan action determines the size of the sector to scan, the start angle, the end angle, and the angle of elevation. We will not consider elevation angles here. Our goal is to determine which scan actions to use and when to use them. An effective scanning strategy must balance scanning small sectors (thus implicitly not scanning other sectors), to ensure that phenomena are correctly identified, with scanning a variety of sectors, to ensure that no phenomena are missed. We will evaluate the performance of different scan strategies based on inter-scan time, quality, and cost. Inter-scan time is the number of decision epochs before a phenomenon is either first observed or rescanned; we would like this value to be below some threshold. Quality measures how well a phenomenon is observed, with quality depending on the amount of time a radar spends sampling a voxel in space, the degree to which a meteorological phenomena is scanned in its (spatial) entirety, and the number of radars observing a phenomenon; higher quality scans are better. Cost is a meta-metric that combines inter-scan time and quality, and that additionally considers whether a phenomenon was never scanned. The radar control problem is that of dynamically choosing the scan strategy of the radars over time to maximize quality while minimizing inter-scan time. 3 Scan Strategies We define a radar configuration to be the start and end angles of the sector to be scanned by an individual radar for a fixed interval of time. We define a scan action to be a set of radar configurations (one configuration for each radar in the meteorological sensing network). We define a scan strategy to be an algorithm for choosing scan actions. In Section 3.1 we define the quality function associated with different radar configurations and in Section 3.2 we define the quality functions associated with different scan strategies. 3.1 Quality Function The quality function associated with a given scan action was proposed by radar meteorologists in [5] and has two components. There is a quality component Up associated with scanning a particular phenomenon p. There is also a quality component Us associated with scanning a sector, which is independent of any phenomena in that sector. Let sr be the radar configuration for a single radar r and let Sr be the scan action under consideration. From [5], we compute the quality Up (p, Sr ) of 2 Fc Function Fw Function Fd Function 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.6 Fd Fc Fw 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 c 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 w/360 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 d 0.8 1 1.2 Figure 1: Step functions used by the Up and Us quality functions, from [9] scanning a phenomenon p using scan action Sr with the following equations,    w(sr ) Up (p, sr ) = Fc (c(p, sr )) ? ?Fd (d(r, p)) + (1 ? ?)Fw 360 Up (p, Sr ) = maxsr ?Sr [Up (p, sr )] (1) where w(sr ) = size of sector sr scanned by r a(r, p) = minimal angle that would allow r to cover p w(sr ) = coverage of p by r scanning sr c(p, sr ) = a(r, p) h(r, p) = distance from r to geometric center of p hmax (r) = range of radar r h(r, p) d(r, p) = = normalized distance from r to p hmax (r) ? = tunable parameter Up (p, Sr ) is the maximum quality obtained for scanning phenomenon p over all possible radars and their associated radar configurations sr . Up (p, sr ) is the quality obtained for scanning phenomenon p using a specific radar r and radar configuration sr . The functions Fc (?), Fw (?), and Fd (?) from [5] are plotted in Figure 1. Fc captures the effect on quality due to the percentage of the phenomenon covered; to usefully scan a phenomenon, at least 95% of the phenomenon must be scanned. Fw captures the effect of radar rotation speed on quality; as rotation speed is reduced, quality increases. Fd captures the effects of the distance from the radar to the geometrical center of the phenomenon on quality; the further away the radar center is from the phenomenon being scanned, the more degraded will be the scan quality due to attenuation. Due to the Fw function, the quality function Up (p, sr ) outputs the same quality for scan angles of 181? to 360? . The quality Us (ri , sr ) for scanning a subsector i of radar r scanned using configuration sr is,   w(sr ) Us (ri , sr ) = Fw (2) 360 Intuitively, a sector scanning strategy is only preferable when the quality function is such that the quality gained for scanning a sector is greater than the quality lost for not scanning another sector. 3.2 Scan Strategies We compare the performance of the following three scan strategies. The strategies differ in whether they optimize quality over only current or also future expected states. For example, suppose a storm cell is about to move into a high-quality multi-doppler region (i.e., the area where multiple radar footprints overlap). By considering future expected states, a lookahead strategy can anticipate this event and have all radars focused on the storm cell when it enters the multi-doppler region, rather than expending resources (with little ?reward?) to scan the storm cell just before it enters this region. (i) Sit-and-spin strategy. All radars always scan 360? . (ii) Limited ?lookahead? strategy. We examine both a 1-step and a 2-step look-ahead scan strategy. Although we do not have an exact model of the dynamics of different phenomena, to perform the 3 look-ahead we estimate the future attributes of each phenomenon using a separate Kalman filter. For each filter, the true state x is a vector comprising the (x, y) location and velocity of the phenomenon, and the measurement y is a vector comprising only the (x, y) location. The Kalman filter assumes that the state at time t is a linear function of the state at time t ? 1 plus some Gaussian noise, and that the measurement at time t is a linear function of the state at time t plus some Gaussian noise. In particular, xt = Axt?1 + N [0, Q] and yt = Bxt + N [0, R]. Following work by [8], we initialize each Kalman filter as follows. The A matrix reflects that storm cells typically move to the north-east. The B matrix, which when multiplied with xt returns xt , assumes that the observed state yt is directly the true state xt plus some Gaussian noise. The Q matrix assumes that there is little noise in the true state dynamics. Finally, the measurement error covariance matrix R is a function of the quality Up with which phenomenon p was scanned at time t. We discuss how to compute the ?t ?s in Section 4. We use the first location measurement of a storm cell y0 , augmented with the observed velocity, as the the initial state x0 . We assume that our estimate of x0 has little noise and use .0001 ? I for the initial covariance P0 . A= " 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 # , B= h 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 i " ,Q = .0001 0 0 0 0 .0001 0 0 0 0 .0001 0 0 0 0 .0001 # , R= h ?t 0 0 ?t i We compute the k-step look-ahead quality for different sets of radar configurations Sr with, UK (Sr,1 |Tr ) = K X k?1 ? Np X Up (pi,k , Sr,k |Tr ) i=1 k=1 where Np is the number of phenomena in the environment in the current decision epoch, pi,0 is the current set of observed attributes for phenomenon i, pi,k is the k-step set of predicted attributes for phenomenon i, Sr,k is the set of radar configurations for the kth decision epoch in the future, and ? is a tunable discount factor between 0 and 1. The optimal set of radar configurations is ? then Sr,1 = argmaxSr,1 UK (Sr,1 |Tr ). To account for the decay of quality for unscanned sectors and phenomena, and to consider the possibility of new phenomena appearing, we restrict Sr to be those scan actions that ensure that every sector has been scanned at least once in the last Tr decision epochs. Tr is a tunable parameter whose purpose is to satisfy the meteorological dictate found in [5], that all sectors be scanned, for instance by a 360? scan, at most every 5 minutes. (iii) Full ?lookahead? strategy. We formulate the radar control problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and use reinforcement learning to obtain a lookahead scan strategy as follows. While a POMDP (partially observable MDP) could be used to model the environmental uncertainty, due to the cost of solving a POMDP with a large state space [9], we choose to formulate the radar control problem as an MDP with quality (or uncertainty) variables as in an augmented MDP [6]. S is the observed state of the environment. The state is a function of the observed number of storms, the observed x, y velocity of each storm, and the observed dimensions of each storm cell given by x, y center of mass and radius. To model the uncertainty in the environment, we additionally define as part of the state quality variables up and us based on the Up and Us quality functions defined in Equations (1) and (2) in Section 3.1. up is the quality Up (?) with which each storm cell was observed, and us is the current quality Us (?) of each 90? subsector, starting at 0, 90, 180, or 270? . A is the set of actions available to the radars. This is the set of radar configurations for a given decision epoch. We restrict each radar to scanning subsectors that are a multiple of 90? , starting at 0, 90, 180, or 270? . Thus, with N radars there are 13N possible actions at each decision epoch. The transition function T (S ? A ? S) ? [0, 1] encodes the observed environment dynamics: specifically the appearance, disappearance, and movement of storm cells and their associated attributes. For meteorological radar control, the next state really is a function of not just the current state but also the action executed in the current state. For instance, if a radar scans 180 degrees rather than 360 degrees, then any new storm cells that appear in the unscanned areas will not be observed. Thus, the new storm cells that will be observed will depend on the scanning action of the radar. The cost function C(S, A, S) ? R encodes the goals of the radar sensing network. C is a function of the error between the true state and the observed state, whether all storms have been observed, 4 and a penalty term for not rescanning a storm within Tr decision epochs. More precisely, No C = p Nd X X |doij ? dij | + (Np ? Npo )Pm + i=1 j=1 Np X I(ti )Pr (3) i=1 where Npo is the observed number of storms, Nd is the number of attributes per storm, doij is the observed value of attribute j of storm i, dij is the true value of attribute j of storm i, Np is the true number of storms, Pm is the penalty for missing a storm, ti is the number of decision epochs since storm i was last scanned, Pr is the penalty for not scanning a storm at least once within Tr decision epochs, and I(ti ) is an indicator function that equals 1 when ti ? Tr . The quality with which a storm is observed determines the difference between the observed and true values of its attributes. We use linear Sarsa(?) [15] as the reinforcement learning algorithm to solve the MDP for the radar control problem. To obtain the basis functions, we use tile coding [13, 14]. Rather than defining tilings over the entire state space, we define a separate set of tilings for each of the state variables. 4 4.1 Evaluation Simulation Environment We consider radars with both 10 and 30km radii as in [5, 17]. Two overlapping radars are placed in a 90km ? 60km rectangle, one at (30km, 30km) and one at (60km, 30km). A new storm cell can appear anywhere within the rectangle and a maximum number of cells can be present on any decision epoch. When the (x, y) center of a storm cell is no longer within range of any radar, the cell is removed from the environment. Following [5], we use a 30-second decision epoch. We derive the maximum storm cell radius from [11], which uses 2.83km as ?the radius from the cell center within which the intensity is greater than e?1 of the cell center intensity.? We then permit a storm cell?s radius to range from 1 to 4 km. To determine the range of storm cell velocities, we use 39 real storm cell tracks obtained from meteorologists. Each track is a series of (latitude, longitude) coordinates. We first compute the differences in latitude and longitude, and in time, between successive pairs of points. We then fit the differences using Gaussian distributions. We obtain, in units of km/hour, that the latitude (or x) velocity has mean 9.1 km/hr and std. dev. of 35.6 km/hr and that the longitude (or y) velocity has mean 16.7 km/hr and std. dev. of 28.8 km/hr. To obtain a storm cell?s (x, y) velocity, we then sample the appropriate Gaussian distribution. To simulate the environment transitions we use a stochastic model of rainfall in which storm cell arrivals are modeled using a spatio-temporal Poisson process, see [11, 1]. To determine the number of new storm cells to add during a decision epoch, we sample a Poisson random variable with rate ???a?t with ? = 0.075 storm cells/km2 and ? = 0.006 storm cells/minute from [11]. From the radar setup we have ?a = 90 ? 60 km2 , and from the 30-second decision epoch we have ?t = 0.5 minutes. New storm cells are uniformly randomly distributed in the 90km ? 60km region and we uniformly randomly choose new storm cell attributes from their range of values. This simulates the true state of the environment over time. The following simplified radar model determines how well the radars observe the true environmental state under a given set of radar configurations. If a storm cell p is scanned using a set of radar configurations Sr , the location, velocity, and radius attributes are observed as a function of the Up (p, Sr ) quality defined in Section 3.1. Up (p, Sr ) returns a value u between zero and one. Then the observed value of the attribute is the true value of the attribute plus some Gaussian noise distributed with mean zero and standard deviation (1 ? u)V max /? where V max is the largest positive value the attribute can take and ? is a scaling term that will allow us to adjust the noise variability. Since u depends on the decision epoch t, for the k-step look-ahead scan strategy we also use ?t = (1 ? ut )V max /? to compute the measurement error covariance matrix, R, in our Kalman filter. We parameterize the MDP cost function as follows. We assume that any unobserved storm cell has been observed with quality 0, hence u = 0. Summing over (1 ? u)V max /? for all attributes with ? = 0 gives the value Pm = 15.5667, and thus a penalty of 15.5667 is received for each unobserved storm cell. If a storm cell is not seen within Tr = 4 decision epochs a penalty of Pr = 200 is given. Using the value 200 ensures that if a storm cell has not been rescanned within the appropriate amount of time, this part of the cost function will dominate. 5 We distinguish the true environmental state known only to the simulator from the observed environmental state used by the scan strategies for several reasons. Although radars provide measurements about meteorological phenomena, the true attributes of the phenomena are unknown. Poor overlap in a dual-Doppler area, scanning a subsector too quickly or slowly, or being unable to obtain a sufficient number of elevation scans will degrade the quality of the measurements. Consequently, models of previously existing phenomena may contain estimation errors such as incorrect velocity, propagating error into the future predicted locations of the phenomena. Additionally, when a radar scans a subsector, it obtains more accurate estimates of the phenomena in that subsector than if it had scanned a full 360? , but less accurate estimates of the phenomena outside the subsector. 4.2 Results In this section we present experimental results obtained using the simulation model of the previous section and the scan strategies described in Section 3. For the limited lookahead strategy we use ? = 0.5, ?p = 0.25, ?s = 0.25, and ? = 0.75. For Sarsa(?), we use a learning rate ? = 0.0005, exploration rate  = 0.01, discount factor ? = 0.9, and eligibility decay ? = 0.3. Additionally, we use a single tiling for each state variable. For the (x, y) location and radius tilings, we use a granularity of 1.0; for the (x, y) velocity, phenomenon confidence, and radar sector confidence tilings, we use a granularity of 0.1. When there are a maximum of four storms, we restrict Sarsa(?) to scanning only 180 or 360 degree sectors to reduce the time needed for convergence. Finally, all strategies are always compared over the same true environmental state. Figure 2(a) shows an example convergence profile of Sarsa(?) when there are at most four storms in the environment. Figure 2(b) shows the average difference in scan quality between the learned Sarsa(?) strategy and sit-and-spin and 2-step strategies. When 1/? = 0.001 (i.e., little measurement noise) Sarsa(?) has the same or higher relative quality than does sit-and-spin, but significantly lower relative quality (0.05 to 0.15) than does the 2-step. This in part reflects the difficulty of learning to perform as well as or better than Kalman filtering. Examining the learned strategy showed that when there was at most one storm with observation noise 1/? = 0.001, Sarsa(?) learned to simply sit-and-spin, since sector scanning conferred little benefit. As the observation noise increases, the relative difference increases for sit-and-spin, and decreases for the 2-step. Figure 2(c) shows the average difference in cost between the learned Sarsa(?) scan strategy and the sit-and-spin and 2-step strategies for a 30 km radar radius. Sarsa(?) has the lowest average cost. Looking at the Sarsa(?) inter-scan times, Figure 2 (d) shows that, as a consequence of the penalty for not scanning a storm within Tr = 4 time-steps, while Sarsa(?) may rescan fewer storm cells within 1, 2, or 3 decision epochs than do the other scan strategies, it scans almost all storm cells within 4 epochs. Note that for the sit-and-spin CDF, P [X ? 1] is not 1; due to noise, for example, the measured location of a storm cell may be (expected) outside any radar footprint and consequently the storm cell will not be observed. Thus the 2-step has more inter-scan times greater than Tr = 4 than does Sarsa(?). Together with Figure 2(b) and (c), this implies that there is a trade-off between inter-scan time and scan quality. We hypothesize that this trade-off occurs because increasing the size of the scan sectors ensures that inter-scan time is minimized, but decreases the scan quality. Other results (not shown, see [7]) examine the average difference in quality between the 1-step and 2step strategies for 10 km and 30 km radar radii. With a 10 km radius, the 1-step quality is essentially the same as the 2-step quality. We hypothesize that this is a consequence of the maximum storm cell radius, 4 km, relative to the 10 km radar radius. With a 30 km radius and at most eight storm cells, the 2-step quality is about 0.005 better than the 1-step and about 0.07 better than sit-and-spin (recall that quality is a value between 0 and 1). Now recall that Figure 2(b) shows that with a 30 km radius and at most four storm cells, the 2-step quality is as much as 0.12 than sit-and-spin. This indicates that there may be some maximum number of storms above which it is best to sit-and-spin. Overall, depending on the environment in which the radars are deployed, there are decreasing marginal returns for considering more than 1 or 2 future expected states. Instead, the primary value of reinforcement learning for the radar control problem is balancing multiple conflicting goals, i.e., maximizing scan quality while minimizing inter-scan time. Implementing the learned reinforcement learning scan strategy in a real meteorological radar network requires addressing the differences between the offline environment in which the learned strategy is trained, and the online environment in which the strategy is deployed. Given the slow convergence time for Sarsa(?) (on the order of 6 Radar Radius = 30km, Max 4 Storms 24 22 20 18 16 14 0 1 2 3 4 Episode Radar Radius = 30km 0.15 sit?and?spin sarsa Average Difference in Scan Quality (250,000 steps) Average Cost Per Episode of 1000 Steps 26 5 0.1 0.05 0 ?0.05 ?0.1 ?0.15 ?0.2 6 2step ? sarsa, max 1 storm 2step ? sarsa, max 4 storms sitandspin? sarsa, max 1 storm sitandspin ? sarsa, max 4 storms 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 4 x 10 (a) 0.94 2.5 0.92 P[X <= x] Average Difference in Cost (250,000 steps) 0.96 3 2 1.5 0.5 0.84 0 0.82 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.1 0.9 0.86 0.01 0.09 0.88 1 0 0.08 0.98 3.5 ?0.5 0.07 Max # of Storms = 4, Radar Radius = 30km 1 2step ? sarsa, max 1 storm 2step ? sarsa, max 4 storms sitandspin? sarsa, max 1 storm sitandspin ? sarsa, max 4 storms 4 0.06 (b) Radar Radius = 30km 4.5 0.05 1/? 0.05 1/? 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.8 0.1 (c) sit?and?spin, 1/?=0.1 1step, 1/?=0.1 2step, 1/?=0.1 sarsa, 1/?=0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 x = # of decision epochs between storm scans 9 10 (d) Figure 2: Comparing the scan strategies based on quality, cost, and inter-scan time. Recall that ? is a scaling term used to determine measurement noise, see Section 4.1. days), training solely online is likely infeasible, although the time complexity could be mitigated by using hierarchical reinforcement learning methods and semi-Markov decision process. Some online training could be achieved by treating 360? scans as the true environment state. Then when unknown states are entered, learning could be performed, alternating between 360? scans to gauge the true state of the environment and exploratory scans by the reinforcement learning algorithm. 5 Related Work Other reinforcement learning applications in large state spaces include robot soccer [12] and helicopter control [10]. With respect to radar control, [4] examines the problem of using agile radars on airplanes to detect and track ground targets. They show that lookahead scan strategies for radar tracking of a ground target outperform myopic strategies. In comparison, we consider the problem of tracking meteorological phenomena using ground radars. [4] uses an information theoretic measure to define the reward metric and proposes both an approximate solution to solving the MDP Bellman equations as well as a Q-learning reinforcement learning-based solution. [16] examines where to target radar beams and which waveform to use for electronically steered phased array radars. They maintain a set of error covariance matrices and dynamical models for existing targets, as well as 7 track existence probability density functions to model the probability that targets appear. They then choose the scan mode for each target that has both the longest revisit time for scanning a target and error covariance below a threshold. They do this for control 1-step and 2-steps ahead and show that considering the environment two decision epochs ahead outperforms a 1-step look-ahead for tracking of multiple targets. 6 Conclusions and Future Work In this work we compared the performance of myopic and lookahead scan strategies in the context of the meteorological radar control problem. We showed that the main benefits of using a lookahead strategy are when there are multiple meteorological phenomena in the environment, and when the maximum radius of any phenomenon is sufficiently smaller than the radius of the radars. We also showed that there is a trade-off between the average quality with which a phenomenon is scanned and the number of decision epochs before which a phenomenon is rescanned. Overall, considering only scan quality, a simple lookahead strategy is sufficient. To additionally consider inter-scan time (or optimize over multiple metrics of interest), a reinforcement learning strategy is useful. For future work, rather than identifying a policy that chooses the best action to execute in a state for a single decision epoch, it may be useful to consider actions that cover multiple epochs, as in semi-Markov decision processes or to use controllers from robotics [3]. We would also like to incorporate more radar and meteorological information into the transition, measurement, and cost functions. Acknowledgments The authors thank Don Towsley for his input. This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under the Engineering Research Centers Program, award number EEC-0313747. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Science Foundation. References [1] D. Cox and V. Isham. A simple spatial-temporal model of rainfall. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 415:1849:317?328, 1988. [2] B. Donovan and D. J. McLaughlin. Improved radar sensitivity through limited sector scanning: The DCAS approach. In Proceedings of AMS Radar Meteorology, 2005. [3] M. Huber and R. Grupen. A feedback control structure for on-line learning tasks. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 22(3-4):303?315, 1997. [4] C. Kreucher and A. O. H. III. Non-myopic approaches to scheduling agile sensors for multistage detection, tracking and identification. In Proceedings of ICASSP, pages 885?888, 2005. [5] J. Kurose, E. Lyons, D. McLaughlin, D. Pepyne, B. Phillips, D. Westbrook, and M. Zink. An end-user-responsive sensor network architecture for hazardous weather detection, prediction and response. AINTEC, 2006. [6] C. Kwok and D. Fox. Reinforcement learning for sensing strategies. In IROS, 2004. [7] V. Manfredi and J. Kurose. Comparison of myopic and lookahead scan strategies for meteorological radars. Technical Report U of Massachusetts Amherst, 2006-62, 2006. [8] V. Manfredi, S. Mahadevan, and J. Kurose. Switching kalman filters for prediction and tracking in an adaptive meteorological sensing network. In IEEE SECON, 2005. [9] K. Murphy. A survey of POMDP solution techniques. Technical Report U.C. Berkeley, 2000. [10] A. Ng, A. Coates, M. Diel, V. Ganapathi, J. Schulte, B. Tse, E. Berger, and E. Liang. Inverted autonomous helicopter flight via reinforcement learning. In International Symposium on Experimental Robotics, 2004. [11] I. Rodrigues-Iturbe and P. Eagleson. Mathematical models of rainstorm events in space and time. Water Resources Research, 23:1:181? 190, 1987. [12] P. Stone, R. Sutton, and G. Kuhlmann. Reinforcement learning for robocup-soccer keepaway. Adaptive Behavior, 3, 2005. [13] R. Sutton. Tile coding software. http://rlai.cs.ualberta.ca/RLAI/RLtoolkit/tiles.html. [14] R. Sutton. Generalization in reinforcement learning: Successful examples using sparse coarse coding. In NIPS, 1996. [15] R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1998. [16] S. Suvorova, D. Musicki, B. Moran, S. Howard, and B. L. Scala. Multi step ahead beam and waveform scheduling for tracking of manoeuvering targets in clutter. In Proceedings of ICASSP, 2005. [17] J. M. Trabal, B. C. Donovan, M. Vega, V. Marrero, D. J. McLaughlin, and J. G. Colom. Puerto Rico student test bed applications and system requirements document development. In Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Engineering Education, 2006. 8
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824 SYNCHRONIZATION IN NEURAL NETS Jacques J. Vidal University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, Ca. 90024 John Haggerty? ABSTRACT The paper presents an artificial neural network concept (the Synchronizable Oscillator Networks) where the instants of individual firings in the form of point processes constitute the only form of information transmitted between joining neurons. This type of communication contrasts with that which is assumed in most other models which typically are continuous or discrete value-passing networks. Limiting the messages received by each processing unit to time markers that signal the firing of other units presents significant implemen tation advantages. In our model, neurons fire spontaneously and regularly in the absence of perturbation. When interaction is present, the scheduled firings are advanced or delayed by the firing of neighboring neurons. Networks of such neurons become global oscillators which exhibit multiple synchronizing attractors. From arbitrary initial states, energy minimization learning procedures can make the network converge to oscillatory modes that satisfy multi-dimensional constraints Such networks can directly represent routing and scheduling problems that conSist of ordering sequences of events. INTRODUCTION Most neural network models derive from variants of Rosenblatt's original perceptron and as such are value-passing networks. This is the case in particular with the networks proposed by Fukushima I, Hopfield 2 , Rumelhart 3 and many others. In every case, the inputs to the processing elements are either binary or continuous amplitude signals which are weighted by synaptic gains and subsequently summed (integrated). The resulting activation is then passed through a sigmoid or threshold filter and again produce a continuous or quantized output which may become the input to other neurons. The behavior of these models can be related to that of living neurons even if they fall considerably short of accounting for their complexity. Indeed, it can be observed with many real neurons that action potentials (spikes) are fired and propagate down the axonal branches when the internal activation reaches some threshold and that higher John Haggerty is with Interactive Systems Los angeles 3030 W. 6th St. LA, Ca. 90020 @) American Institute of Physics 1988 825 input rates levels result in more rapid firing. Behind these traditional models, there is the assumption that the average frequency of action potentials is the carrier of information between neurons. Because of integration, the firings of individual neurons are considered effective only to the extent to which they contribute to the average intensities It is therefore assumed that the activity is simply "frequency coded". The exact timing of individual firing is ignored. This view however does not cover some other well known aspects of neural communication. Indeed, the precise timing of spike arrivals can make a crucial difference to the outcome of some neural interactions. One classic example is that of pre-synaptic inhibition, a widespread mechanism in the brain machinery. Several studies have also demonstrated the occurrence and functional importance of precise timing or phase relationship between cooperating neurons in local networks 4 . 5 . The model presented in this paper contrasts with the ones just mentioned in that in the networks each firing is considered as an individual output event. On the input side of each node, the firing of other nodes (the presynaptic neurons) either delay (inhibit) or advance (excite) the node firing. As seen earlier, this type of neuronal interaction which would be called phase-modulation in engineering systems, can also find its rationale in experimental neurophysiology. Neurophysiological plausibility however is not the major concern here. Rather, we propose to explore a potentially useful mechanism for parallel distributed computing. The merit of this approach for artificial neural networks is that digital pulses are used for internode communication instead of analog voltages. The model is particularly well suited to the time-ordering and sequencing found in a large class of routing and trajectory control problems. NEURONS AS SYNCHRONIZABLE OSCILLATORS: In our model, the proceSSing elements (the "neurons") are relaxation oscillators with built-in self-inhibition. A relaxation oscillator is a dynamic system that is capable of accumulating potential energy until some threshold or breakdown point is reached. At that point the energy is abruptly released, and a new cycle begins. The description above fits the dynamic behavior of neuronal membranes. A richly structured empirical model of this behavior is found in the well-established differential formulation of Hodgkin and Huxley 6 and in a simplified version given by Fitzhugh7. These differential equations account for the foundations of neuronal activity and are also capable of representing subthreshold behavior and the refractoriness that follows each firing. When the membrane potential enters the critical region, an abrupt depolarization, i.e., a collapse of the potential difference across the membrane occurs followed by a somewhat slower recovery. This brief electrical 826 shorting of the membrane is called the action potential or "spike" and constitutes the output event for the neuron. If the causes for the initial depolarization are maintained, oscillation ( "limit-cycles") develops, generating multiple firings. Depending on input level and membrane parameters, the oscillation can be limited to a single spike, or may produce an oscillatory burst, or even continually sustained activity. The present model shares the same general properties but uses the much simpler description of relaxation oscillator illustrated on Figure 1. Activation EnergyE(t) Exdt3tOIJ OJ Input Out InJrjh1~olJ Input perturbation ~~utl Intemilf l!neJU Inpul r 1 u (t - ty t Figure 1 Relaxation Oscillator with perturbation input Firing occurs when the energy level E(t) reaches some critical level Ec. Assuming a constant rate of energy influx a, firing will occur with the natural period Ec? T=a:When pre-synaptic pulses impinge on the course of energy accumulation, the firing schedule is disturbed. Letting to represent the instant of the last firing of the cell and tj. U = 1.2 ?... J), the intants of impinging arrivals from other cells: E(t - to) = aCt - to) + L Wj ?? uo(t - til ; E $ Ec where uo(t) represents the unit impulse at t=O. The dramatic complexity of synchronization dynamics can be appreCiated by considering the simplest possible case, that of a master slave interaction between two regularly firing oscillator units A and B, with natural periods TA and TB. At the instants of firing, unit A unidirectionally sends a spike Signal to unit B which is received at some interval <I> measured from the last time B fired. 827 Upon reception the spike is transformed into a quantum of energy 6E which depends upon the post-firing arrival time 4>. The relationship 6E(4)) can be shaped to represent refractoriness and other post-spike properties. Here it is assumed to be a simple ramp function. If the interaction is inhibitory. the consequence of this arrival is that the next firing of unit B is delayed (with respect to what its schedule would have been in absence of perturbation) by some positive interval 5 (Figure 2). Because of the shape of 6E(4)) . the delaying action. nil immediately after firing. becomes longer for impinging pre-synaptic spikes that arrive later in the interval. If the interaction is excitatory. the delay is negative. Le. a shortening of the natural firing interval. Under very general assumptions regarding the function 6E( 4?. B will tend to synchronize to A. Within a given range of coupling gains, the phase 4> will self-adjust until equilibrium is achieved. With a given 6E(4)) , this equilibrium corresponds to a distribution of maximum entropy, i.e., to the point where both cells receive the same amouint of activation. during their common cycle. I I ~h ~ $~~ ~ ~ .. ) Inhibition B ( .. ) Excitation Figure 2 Relationship between phase and delay when input effiCiently increases linearly in the after-spike interval The synchronization dynamiCS presents an attractor for each rational frequency pair. To each ratio is aSSOCiated a range of stability but only the ratios of lowest cardinality have wide zones of phaselocking (Figure 3). The wider stability wnes correspond to a one to one ratio between fA and fB (or between their inverses TA and TBl. Kohn and Segundo have demonstrated that such phase locking occurs in living invertebrate neurons and pointed out the paradoxical nature of phase-locked inhibition which, within each stability region, 828 takes the appearence of excitation since small increases in input firing rate will locally result in increased output rates 8, 5. The areas between these ranges of stability have the appearance of unstable transitions but in fact. as recently pOinted out by Bak9 ? form an infinity of locking steps known as the Devil's Staircase. corresponding to the infinity of intermediate rational pairs (figure 3). Bak showed that the staircase is self-similar under scaling and that the transitions form a fractal Cantor set with a fractal dimension which is a universal constant of dynamic systems. 1/2 ~ ;;: I 1/2 ) Excitation Inhibiti~~v'/ I :7 lI?L It.?' Figure 3 Unilateral SynchroniZation: CONSTRAINT SATISFACTION IN OSCILLATOR NETWORKS The global synchronization of an interconnected network of mutually phase-locking oscillators is a constraint satisfaction problem. For each synchronization equilibrium, the nodes fire in interlocked patterns that organize inter-spike intervals into integer ratios. The often cited "Traveling Salesman Problem". the archetype for a class of important "hard" problems. is a special case when the ratio must be 1 / 1: all nodes must fire at the same frequency. Here the equilibrium condition is that every node will accumulate the the same amount of energy during the global cycle. Furthermore. the firings must be ordered along a minimal path. Using stochastic energy minimization and simulated annealing. the first simulations have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach with a limited number of nodes. The TSP is isomorphic to many other sequencing problems which involve distributed constraints. and fall into the oscillator array neural net paradigm in a particularly natural way. Work is being pursued to more rigorously establish the limits of applicability of the model.. 829 ~~~~~-L~~~~~~T- 171~~~~~~~~~-L~- I Annea/./ng ~ a~~~--~~--~----~-- 171--~L-~~--~~--~~- c~--~~--~--~----~? Gf~--~~--~----L-----~ e t-A-----.&--------.?.---- Figure 4. The Traveling Salesman Problem: In the global oscillation oj minimal energy each node is constrained to fire at the same rate in the order corresponding to the minimal path. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Research supported in part by Aerojet Electro-Systems under the Aerojet-UCLA Cooperative Research Master Agreement No. D8412I1, and by NASA NAG 2-302. REFERENCES l. 2. 3. K. Fukushima. BioI. Cybern. 20. 121 (1975). J.J. Hopfield. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 79.2556 (1982). D.E. Rumelhart. G.E. Hinton. and R.J. Williams. Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the Microstructure oj Cognition, (MIT Press. Cambridge. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. MA .. 1986) p. 318. J.P. Segundo. G.P. Moore. N.J. Stensaas. and T.H. Bullock. J. Exp. BioI. 40. 643. (1963). J.P. Segundo and A.F. Kohn. BioI Cyber 40. 113 (1981). A.L. Hodgkin and A.F. Huxley. J. PhysiOI. 117.500 (1952). Fitzhugh. Biophysics J .. 1. 445 (1961). A.F. Kohn. A. Freitas da Rocha. and J.P. Segundo. BioI. Cybem. 41. 5 (1981). P. Bak. Phys. Today (Dec 1986) p. 38 . J. Haggerty and J.J. Vidal. UCLA BCI Report. 1975.
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Exploratory Feature Extraction in Speech Signals Nathan Intrator Center for Neural Science Brown U ni versity Providence, RI 02912 Abstract A novel unsupervised neural network for dimensionality reduction which seeks directions emphasizing multimodality is presented, and its connection to exploratory projection pursuit methods is discussed. This leads to a new statistical insight to the synaptic modification equations governing learning in Bienenstock, Cooper, and Munro (BCM) neurons (1982). The importance of a dimensionality reduction principle based solely on distinguishing features, is demonstrated using a linguistically motivated phoneme recognition experiment, and compared with feature extraction using back-propagation network. 1 Introduction Due to the curse of dimensionality (Bellman, 1961) it is desirable to extract features from a high dimensional data space before attempting a classification. How to perform this feature extraction/dimensionality reduction is not that clear. A first simplification is to consider only features defined by linear (or semi-linear) projections of high dimensional data. This class of features is used in projection pursuit methods (see review in Huber, 1985). Even after this simplification, it is still difficult to characterize what interesting projections are, although it is easy to point at projections that are uninteresting. A statement that has recently been made precise by Diaconis and Freedman (1984) says that for most high-dimensional clouds, most low-dimensional projections are approximately normal. This finding suggests that the important information in the data is conveyed in those directions whose single dimensional projected distribution is far from Gaussian, especially at the center of the distribution. Friedman (1987) 241 242 Intrator argues that the most computationally attractive measures for deviation from normality (projection indices) are based on polynomial moments. However they very heavily emphasize departure from normality in the tails of the distribution (Huber, 1985). Second order polynomials (measuring the variance - principal components) are not sufficient in characterizing the important features of a distribution (see example in Duda & Hart (1973) p. 212), therefore higher order polynomials are needed. We shall be using the observation that high dimensional clusters translate to multimodallow dimensional projections, and if we are after such structures measuring multimodality defines an interesting projection. In some special cases, where the data is known in advance to be bi-modal, it is relatively straightforward to define a good projection index (Hinton & Nowlan, 1990). When the structure is not known in advance, defining a general multi modal measure of the projected data is not straight forward, and will be discussed in this paper. There are cases in which it is desirable to make the projection index invariant under certain transformations, and maybe even remove second order structure (see Huber, 1985) for desirable invariant properties of projection indices) . In such cases it is possible to make such transformations before hand (Friedman, 1987), and then assume that the data possesses these invariant properties already. 2 Feature Extraction using ANN In this section, the intuitive idea presented above is used to form a statistically plausible objective function whose minimization will be those projections having a single dimensional projected distribution that is far from Gaussian. This is done using a loss function whose expected value leads to the desired projection index. Mathematical details are given in Intrator (1990). Before presenting this loss function, let us review some necessary notations and assumptions. Consider a neuron with input vector x = (Xl, ... , :r N), synaptic weights vector m = (ml' ... , mN), both in R N , and activity (in the linear region) c = x . m. Define the threshold em = E[(x . m)2], and the functions ?(c, em) = c2 - ~cem, ?(c, em) = c 2 _ icem. The ? function has been suggested as a biologically plausible synaptic modification function that explains visual cortical plasticity (Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro, 1982). Note that at this point c represents the linear projection of x onto m, and we seek an optimal projection in some sense. We want to base our projection index on polynomial moments of low order, and to use the fact that bimodal distribution is already interesting, and any additional mode should make the distribution even more interesting. With this in mind, consider the following family of loss functions which depend on the synaptic weight vector and on the input x; The motivation for this loss function can be seen in the following graph, which represents the ? function and the associated loss function Lm (x). For simplicity the loss for a fixed threshold em and synaptic vector m can be written as Lm(c) = -ic2(c - em), where c = (x? m). Exploratory Feature Extraction in Speech Signals TllI~ qlA:\D LOSS Ft;:\CIlO:\S l.Jc) Figure 1: The function ? and the loss functions for a fixed m and em. The graph of the loss function shows that for any fixed m and em, the loss is small for a given input x, when either (x .111.) is close to zero, or when (x . m) is larger than m . Moreover, the loss function remains negative for (x? m) > m , therefore, any kind of distribution at the right hand side of ~em is possible, and the preferred ones are those which are concentratt'd further away from ~em. ie ie We must still show why it is not possible that a minimizer of the average loss will be such that all the mass of the distribution will be concentrated in one of the regions. Roughly speaking, this can not happen because the threshold em is dynamic and depends on the projections in a nonlinear way, namely, em = E(x . m)2. This implies that em will always move itself to a stable point such that the distribution will not be concentrated at only one of its sides. This yields that the part of the distribution for c < ~em has a high loss, making those distributions in which the distribution for c < ~em has its mode at zero more plausible. The risk (expected value of the loss) is given by: Rm = -~ {E[(x .111.)3] - E2[(x? m?]}. 3 Since the risk is continuously differentiable, its minimization can be achieved via a gradient descent method with respect to m, namely: dm a -dt = - -;;;--Rm = J1 E[?(x? m, em)Xi]. t V7ni The resulting differential equations suggest a modified version of the law governing synaptic weight modification in the BCM theory for learning and memory (Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro, 1982). This theory was presented to account for various experimental results in visual cortical plasticity. The biological relevance of the theory has been extensively studied (Soul et al., 1986; Bear et al., 1987; Cooper et aI., 1987; Bear et al., 1988), and it was shown that the theory is in agreement with the classical deprivation experiments (Clothioux et al., 1990). The fact that the distribution has part of its mass on both sides of ~em makes this loss a plausible projection index that seeks multimodalities. However, we still need 243 244 Intrator to reduce the sensitivity of the projection index to outliers, and for full generality, allow any projected distribution to be shifted so that the part of the distribution that satisfies c < ~em will have its mode at zero. The over-sensitivity to outliers is addressed by considering a nonlinear neuron in which the neuron's activity is defined to be C = q(x . m), where q usually represents a smooth sigmoidal function. A more general definition that would allow symmetry breaking of the projected distributions, will provide solution to the second problem raised above, and is still consistent with the statistical formulation, is c = q(x . m - a), for an arbitrary threshold a which can be found by using gradient descent as well. For the nonlinear neuron, em is defined to be em = E[q2(x . m)]. Based on this formulation, a network of Q identical nodes may be constructed. All the neurons in this network receive the same input and inhibit each other, so as to extract several features in parallel. A similar network has been studied in the context of mean field theory by Scofield and Cooper (1985). The activity of neuron k in the network is defined as Ck = q(x . mk - ak), where mk is the synaptic weight vector of neuron k, and ak is its threshold. The inhibited activity and threshold of the k'th neuron are given by Ck = Ck - 17 E}#k Cj, e~ = E[c~]. We omit the derivation of the synaptic modification equations which is similar to the one for a single neuron, and present only the resulting modification equations for a synaptic vector mk in a lateral inhibition network of nonlinear neurons: mk = -11 E{?(Ck' e~:J(q'(Ck) -17 Lq'(Cj})x}. j#k The lateral inhibition network performs a direct search of Q-dimensional projections together, and therefore may find a richer structure that a stepwise approach may miss, e.g. see example 14.1 Huber (1985). 3 Conlparison with other feature extraction nlethods When dealing with a classification problem, the interesting features are those that distinguish between classes. The network presented above has been shown to seek multimodality in the projected distributions, which translates to clusters in the original space, and therefore to find those directions that make a distinction between different sets in the training data. In this section we compare classification performance of a network that performs dimensionality reduction (before the classification) based upon multimodality, and a network that performs dimensionality reduction based upon minimization of misclassification error (using back-propagation with MSE criterion). This is done using a phoneme classification experiment whose linguistic motivation is described below. In the latter we regard the hidden units representation as a new reduced feature representation of the input space. Classification on the new feature space was done using back-propagation 1 1 See Intrator (1990) for comparison with principal components feature extraction and with k-NN as a classifier Exploratory Feature Extraction in Speech Signals Consider the six stop consonants [p,k,t,b,g,dJ, which have been a subject of recent research in evaluating neural networks for phoneme recognition (see review in Lippmann, 1989). According to phonetic feature theory, these stops posses several common features, but only two distinguishing phonetic features, place of articulation and voicing (see Blumstein & Lieberman 1984, for a review and related references on phonetic feature theory). This theory suggests an experiment in which features extracted from unvoiced stops can be used to distinguish place of articulation in voiced stops as well. It is of interest if these features can be found from a single speaker, how sensitive they are to voicing and whether they are speaker invariant. The speech data consists of 20 consecutive time windows of 32msec with 30msec overlap, aligned to the beginning of the burst. In each time window, a set of 22 energy levels is computed. These energy levels correspond to Zwicker critical band filters (Zwicker, 1961). The consonant-vowel (CV) pairs were pronounced in isolation by native American speakers (two male BSS and LTN, and one female JES.) Additional details on biologicalmotivatioll for the preprocessing, and linguistic motivation related to child language acquisition can be found in Seebach (1990), and Seebach and Intrator (1991). An average (over 25 tokens) of the six stop consonants followed by the vowel [aJ is presented in Figure 2. All the images are smoothened using a moving average. One can see some similarities between the voiced and unvoiced stops especially in the upper left corner of the image (high frequencies beginning of the burst) and the radical difference between them in the low frequencies. Figure 2: An average of the six stop consonants followed by the vowel raj. Their order from left to right [paJ [baJ [kaJ [gal [taJ [da]. Time increases from the burst release on the X axis, and frequency increases on the Y axis. In the experiments reported here, 5 features were extracted from the 440 dimension original space. Although the dimensionality reduction methods were trained only with the unvoiced tokens of a single speaker, the classifier was trained on (5 dimensional) voiced and unvoiced data from the other speakers as well. The classification results, which are summarized in table 1, show that the backpropagation network does well in finding structure useful for classification of the trained data, but this structure is more sensitive to voicing. Classification results using a BCM network suggest that, for this specific task, structure that is less sensitive to voicing can be extracted, even though voic.ing has significant effects on the speech signal itself. The results also suggest that these features are more speaker invariant. 245 246 Inuator Place of Articulation Classification JB-P) BCM B-P 100 100 BSS /p,k,t/ 94.7 83.4 BSS /b,g,d/ 95.6 97.7 LTN /p,k,t/ 78.3 93.2 LTN /b,g,d/ 99.4 JES (Both) 88.0 Table 1: Percentage of correct classification of place of articulation in voiced and unvoiced stops. Figure 3 : Synaptic weight images ofthe 5 hidden units of back-propagation (top), and by the 5 BCM neurons (bottom). The difference in performance between the two feature extractors may be partially explained by looking at the synaptic weight vectors (images) extracted by both method: For the back-propagation feature extraction it can be seen that although 5 units were used, fewer number of features were extracted. One of the main distinction between the unvoiced stops in the training set is the high frequency burst at the beginning of the consonant (the upper left corner). The back-propagation method concentrated mainly on this feature, probably because it is sufficient to base the recognition of the training set on this feature, and the fact that training stops when misclassification error falls to zero. On the other hand, the BCM method does not try to reduce the misclassificaion error and is able to find a richer, linguistically meaningful structure, containing burst locations and format tracking of the three different stops that allowed a better generalization to other speakers and to voiced stops. The network and its training paradigm present a different approach to speaker independent speech recognition. In this approach the speaker variability problem is addressed by training a network that concentrates mainly on the distinguishing features of a single speaker, as opposed to training a network that concentrates on both the distinguishing and common features, on multi-speaker data. Acknowledgements I wish to thank Leon N Cooper for suggesting the problem and for providing many helpful hints and insights. Geoff Hinton made invaluable comments. The application of BCM to speech is discussed in more detail in Seebach (1990) and in a Exploratory Feature Extraction in Speech Signals forthcoming article (Seebach and Intrator, 1991). Research was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Army Research Office, and the Office of Naval Research. References Bellman, R. E. (1961) Adaptive Control Processes, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press. Bienenstock, E. L., L. N Cooper, and P.W. Munro (1982) Theory for the development of neuron selectivity: orientation specificity and binocular interaction in visual cortex. J.Neurosci. 2:32-48 Bear, M. F., L. N Cooper, and F. F. Ebner (1987) A Physiological Basis for a Theory of Synapse Modification. Science 237:42-48 Diaconis, P, and D. Freedman (1984) Asymptotics of Graphical Projection Pursuit. The Annals of Statistics, 12 793-815. Friedman, J. H. (1987) Exploratory Projection Pursuit. Journal of the American Statistical Association 82-397:249-266 Hinton, G. E. and S. J. Nowlan (1990) The bootstrap Widrow-Hoffrule as a clusterformation algorithm. Neural Computation. Huber P. J. (1985) Projection Pursuit. The Annal. of Sta.t. 13:435-475 Intrator N. (1990) A Neural Network For Feature Extraction. In D. S. Touretzky (ed.), Advances in Neural Information Processing System,s 2. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann. Lippmann, R. P. (1989) Review of Neural Networks for Speech Recognition. Neural Computation 1, 1-38. Reilly, D. L., C.L. Scofield, L. N Cooper and C. Elbaum (1988) GENSEP: a multiple neural network with modifiable network topology. INNS Conference on Neural Networks. Saul, A. and E. E. Clothiaux, 1986) Modeling and Simulation II: Simulation of a Model for Development of Visual Cortical specificity. J. of Electrophysiological Techniques, 13:279-306 Scofield, C. L. and L. N Cooper (1985) Development and properties of neural networks. Contemp. Phys. 26:125-145 Seebach, B. S. (1990) Evidence for the Development of Phonetic Property Detectors in a Neural Net without Innate Knowledge of Linguistic Structure. Ph.D. Dissertation Brown University. Duda R. O. and P. E. Hart (19;3) Pattern classification and scene analysis John Wiley, New York Zwicker E. (1961) Subdivision of the audible frequency range into critical bands (Frequenzgruppen) Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 33:248 247
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Fixing Max-Product: Convergent Message Passing Algorithms for MAP LP-Relaxations Amir Globerson Tommi Jaakkola Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139 gamir,[email protected] Abstract We present a novel message passing algorithm for approximating the MAP problem in graphical models. The algorithm is similar in structure to max-product but unlike max-product it always converges, and can be proven to find the exact MAP solution in various settings. The algorithm is derived via block coordinate descent in a dual of the LP relaxation of MAP, but does not require any tunable parameters such as step size or tree weights. We also describe a generalization of the method to cluster based potentials. The new method is tested on synthetic and real-world problems, and compares favorably with previous approaches. Graphical models are an effective approach for modeling complex objects via local interactions. In such models, a distribution over a set of variables is assumed to factor according to cliques of a graph with potentials assigned to each clique. Finding the assignment with highest probability in these models is key to using them in practice, and is often referred to as the MAP (maximum aposteriori) assignment problem. In the general case the problem is NP hard, with complexity exponential in the tree-width of the underlying graph. Linear programming (LP) relaxations have proven very useful in approximating the MAP problem, and often yield satisfactory empirical results. These approaches relax the constraint that the solution is integral, and generally yield non-integral solutions. However, when the LP solution is integral, it is guaranteed to be the exact MAP. For some classes of problems the LP relaxation is provably correct. These include the minimum cut problem and maximum weight matching in bi-partite graphs [8]. Although LP relaxations can be solved using standard LP solvers, this may be computationally intensive for large problems [13]. The key problem with generic LP solvers is that they do not use the graph structure explicitly and thus may be sub-optimal in terms of computational efficiency. The max-product method [7] is a message passing algorithm that is often used to approximate the MAP problem. In contrast to generic LP solvers, it makes direct use of the graph structure in constructing and passing messages, and is also very simple to implement. The relation between max-product and the LP relaxation has remained largely elusive, although there are some notable exceptions: For tree-structured graphs, max-product and LP both yield the exact MAP. A recent result [1] showed that for maximum weight matching on bi-partite graphs max-product and LP also yield the exact MAP [1]. Finally, Tree-Reweighted max-product (TRMP) algorithms [5, 10] were shown to converge to the LP solution for binary xi variables, as shown in [6]. In this work, we propose the Max Product Linear Programming algorithm (MPLP) - a very simple variation on max-product that is guaranteed to converge, and has several advantageous properties. MPLP is derived from the dual of the LP relaxation, and is equivalent to block coordinate descent in the dual. Although this results in monotone improvement of the dual objective, global convergence is not always guaranteed since coordinate descent may get stuck in suboptimal points. This can be remedied using various approaches, but in practice we have found MPLP to converge to the LP 1 solution in a majority of the cases we studied. To derive MPLP we use a special form of the dual LP, which involves the introduction of redundant primal variables and constraints. We show how the dual variables corresponding to these constraints turn out to be the messages in the algorithm. We evaluate the method on Potts models and protein design problems, and show that it compares favorably with max-product (which often does not converge for these problems) and TRMP. 1 The Max-Product and MPLP Algorithms The max-product algorithm [7] is one of the most often used methods for solving MAP problems. Although it is neither guaranteed to converge to the correct solution, or in fact converge at all, it provides satisfactory results in some cases. Here we present two algorithms: EMPLP (edge based MPLP) and NMPLP (node based MPLP), which are structurally very similar to max-product, but have several key advantages: ? After each iteration, the messages yield an upper bound on the MAP value, and the sequence of bounds is monotone decreasing and convergent. The messages also have a limit point that is a fixed point of the update rule. ? No additional parameters (e.g., tree weights as in [6]) are required. ? If the fixed point beliefs have a unique maximizer then they correspond to the exact MAP. ? For binary variables, MPLP can be used to obtain the solution to an LP relaxation of the MAP problem. Thus, when this LP relaxation is exact and variables are binary, MPLP will find the MAP solution. Moreover, for any variable whose beliefs are not tied, the MAP assignment can be found (i.e., the solution is partially decodable). Pseudo code for the algorithms (and for max-product) is given in Fig. 1. As we show in the next sections, MPLP is essentially a block coordinate descent algorithm in the dual of a MAP LP relaxation. Every update of the MPLP messages corresponds to exact minimization of a set of dual variables. For EMPLP minimization is over the set of variables corresponding to an edge, and for NMPLP it is over the set of variables corresponding to all the edges a given node appears in (i.e., a star). The properties of MPLP result from its relation to the LP dual. In what follows we describe the derivation of the MPLP algorithms and prove their properties. 2 The MAP Problem and its LP Relaxation We consider functions over n variables x = {x1 , . . . , xn } defined as follows. Given a graph G = (V, E) with n vertices, and potentials ?ij (xi , xj ) for all edges ij ? E, define the function1 X f (x; ?) = ?ij (xi , xj ) . (1) ij?E The MAP problem is defined as finding an assignment xM that maximizes the function f (x; ?). Below we describe the standard LP relaxation for this problem. Denote by {?ij (xi , xj )}ij?E distributions over variables corresponding to edges ij ? E and {?i (xi )}i?V distributions corresponding to nodes i ? V . We will use ? to denote a given set of distributions over all edges and nodes. The set ML (G) is defined as the set of ? where pairwise and singleton distributions are consistent P P   ?ij (? xi , xj ) = ?j (xj ) , ?j ) = ?i (xi ) ?ij ? E, xi , xj x ?j ?ij (xi , x ML (G) = ? ? 0 Px?i ?i ? V xi ?i (xi ) = 1 Now consider the following linear program: ?L? = arg max ? ? ? . (2) MAPLPR : ??ML (G) P P where ??? is shorthand for ??? = ij?E xi ,xj ?ij (xi , xj )?ij (xi , xj ). It is easy to show (see e.g., [10]) that the optimum of MAPLPR yields an upper bound on the MAP value, i.e. ?L? ?? ? f (xM ). Furthermore, when the optimal ?i (xi ) have only integral values, the assignment that maximizes ?i (xi ) yields the correct MAP assignment. In what follows we show how the MPLP algorithms can be derived from the dual of MAPLPR. 1 P We note that some authors also add a term i?V ?i (xi ) to f (x; ?). However, these terms can be included in the pairwise functions ?ij (xi , xj ), so we ignore them for simplicity. 2 3 The LP Relaxation Dual Since MAPLPR is an LP, it has an equivalent convex dual. In App. A we derive a special dual of MAPLPR using a different representation of ML (G) with redundant variables. The advantage of this dual is that it allows the derivation of simple message passing algorithms. The dual is described in the following proposition. Proposition 1 The following optimization problem is a convex dual of MAPLPR DMAPLPR : P P min max max ?ki (xk , xi ) xi i (3) k?N (i) xk ?ji (xj , xi ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) = ?ij (xi , xj ) , s.t. where the dual variables are ?ij (xi , xj ) for all ij, ji ? E and values of xi and xj . The dual has an intuitive interpretation in terms of re-parameterizations. Consider the star shaped graph Gi consisting of node i and all its neighbors N (i). Assume the potential on edge kiP(for k ? N (i)) is ?ki (xk , xi ). The value of the MAP assignment for this model is max max ?ki (xk , xi ). This is exactly the term in the objective of DMAPLPR. Thus the dual xi k?N (i) xk corresponds to individually decoding star graphs around all nodes i ? V where the potentials on the graph edges should sum to the original potential. It is easy to see that this will always result in an upper bound on the MAP value. The somewhat surprising result of the duality is that there exists a ? assignment such that star decoding yields the optimal value of MAPLPR. 4 Block Coordinate Descent in the Dual To obtain a convergent algorithm we use a simple block coordinate descent strategy. At every iteration, fix all variables except a subset, and optimize over this subset. It turns out that this can be done in closed form for the cases we consider. We begin by deriving the EMPLP algorithm. Consider fixing all the ? variables except those corresponding to some edge ij ? E (i.e., ?ij and ?ji ), and minimizing DMAPLPR over the non-fixed variables. Only two terms in the DMAPLPR objective depend on ?ij and ?ji . We can write those as     ?i f (?ij , ?ji ) = max ??j (x ) + max ? (x , x ) + max ? (x ) + max ? (x , x ) (4) i ji j i j ij i j i j xi where we defined ??j i (xi ) = xj P k?N (i)\j xi xi ?ki (xi ) and ?ki (xi ) = maxxk ?ki (xk , xi ) as in App. A. ?j Note that the function f (?ij , ?ji ) depends on the other ? values only through ??i j (xj ) and ?i (xi ). This implies that the optimization can be done solely in terms of ?ij (xj ) and there is no need to store the ? values explicitly. The optimal ?ij , ?ji are obtained by minimizing f (?ij , ?ji ) subject to the re-parameterization constraint ?ji (xj , xi ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) = ?ij (xi , xj ). The following proposition characterizes the minimum of f (?ij , ?ji ). In fact, as mentioned above, we do not need to characterize the optimal ?ij (xi , xj ) itself, but only the new ? values. Proposition 2 Maximizing the function f (?ij , ?ji ) yields the following ?ji (xi ) (and the equivalent expression for ?ij (xj ))   1 1 ?ji (xi ) = ? ?i?j (xi ) + max ??i j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) 2 2 xj The proposition is proved in App. B. The ? updates above result in the EMPLP algorithm, described in Fig. 1. Note that since the ? optimization affects both ?ji (xi ) and ?ij (xj ), both these messages need to be updated simultaneously. We proceed to derive the NMPLP algorithm. For a given node i ? V , we consider all its neighbors j ? N (i), and wish to optimize over the variables ?ji (xj , xi ) for ji, ij ? E (i.e., all the edges in a star centered on i), while the other variables are fixed. One way of doing so is to use the EMPLP algorithm for the edges in the star, and iterate it until convergence. We now show that the result of 3 Inputs: A graph G = (V, E), potential functions ?ij (xi , xj ) for each edge ij ? E. Initialization: Initialize messages to any value. Algorithm: ? Iterate until a stopping criterion is satisfied: ? Max-product: Iterate over messages and update (cji shifts the max to zero) h i mji (xi )? max m?i j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) ? cji xj ? EMPLP: For each ij ? E, update ?ji (xi ) and ?ij (xj ) simultaneously (the update for ?ij (xj ) is the same with i and j exchanged) h i 1 1 ?ji (xi )? ? ??j max ??i j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) i (xi ) + 2 2 xj ? NMPLP: Iterate over nodes i ? V and update all ?ij (xj ) where j ? N (i) 2 3 X 2 ?ij (xj )? max 4?ij (xi , xj ) ? ?ji (xi ) + ?ki (xi )5 xi |N (i)| + 1 k?N(i) ? Calculate node ?beliefs?: Set biP (xi ) to be the sum of incoming messages into node i ? V (e.g., for NMPLP set bi (xi ) = k?N(i) ?ki (xi )). Output: Return assignment x defined as xi = arg maxx?i b(? xi ). Figure 1: The max-product, EMPLP and NMPLP algorithms. Max-product, EMPLP and NMPLP use mesP sages mij , ?ij and ?ij respectively. We use the notation m?i j (xj ) = k?N(j)\i mkj (xj ). this optimization can be found in closed form. The assumption about ? being fixed   outside the star ?i implies that ??i (x ) is fixed. Define: ? (x ) = max ? (x , x ) + ? (x ) j ji i xj ij i j j . Simple algebra j j ?j yields the following relation between ?i (xi ) and ?ki (xi ) for k ? N (i) X 2 ??j ?ki (xi ) (5) i (xi ) = ??ji (xi ) + |N (i)| + 1 k?N (i) Plugging this into the definition of ?ji (xi ) we obtain the NMPLP update in Fig. 1. The messages for both algorithms can be initialized to any value since it can be shown that after one iteration they will correspond to valid ? values. 5 Convergence Properties The MPLP algorithm decreases the dual objective (i.e., an upper bound on the MAP value) at every iteration, and thus its dual objective values form a convergent sequence. Using arguments similar to [5] it can be shown that MPLP has a limit point that is a fixed point of its updates. This in itself does not guarantee convergence to the dual optimum since coordinate descent algorithms may get stuck at a point that is not a global optimum. There are ways of overcoming this difficulty, for example by smoothing the objective [4] or using techniques as in [2] (see p. 636). We leave such extensions for further work. In this section we provide several results about the properties of the MPLP fixed points and their relation to the corresponding LP. First, we claim that if all beliefs have unique maxima then the exact MAP assignment is obtained. Proposition 3 If the fixed point of MPLP has bi (xi ) such that for all i the function bi (xi ) has a unique maximizer x?i , then x? is the solution to the MAP problem and the LP relaxation is exact. Since the dual objective is always greater than or equal to the MAP value, it suffices to show that there exists a dual feasible point whose objective value is f (x? ). Denote by ? ? , ?? the value of the corresponding dual parameters at the fixed point of MPLP. Then the dual objective satisfies X X X X X X ? ? ??ki (xi ) = max ?ki max (xk , x?i ) = ?ki (x?k , x?i ) = f (x? ) i xi k?N (i) i k?N (i) xk i 4 k?N (i) To see why the second equality holds, note that bi (x?i ) = maxxi ,xj ??j i (xi ) + ?ji (xj , xi ) and ?i ? bj (xj ) = maxxi ,xj ?j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ). By the equalization property in Eq. 9 the arguments of the two max operations are equal. From the unique maximum assumption it follows that x?i , x?j are the unique maximizers of the above. It follows that ?ji , ?ij are also maximized by x?i , x?j . In the general case, the MPLP fixed point may not correspond to a primal optimum because of the local optima problem with coordinate descent. However, when the variables are binary, fixed points do correspond to primal solutions, as the following proposition states. Proposition 4 When xi are binary, the MPLP fixed point can be used to obtain the primal optimum. The claim can be shown by constructing a primal optimal solution ?? . For tied bi , set ??i (xi ) to 0.5 and for untied bi , set ??i (x?i ) to 1. If bi , bj are not tied we set ??ij (x?i , x?j ) = 1. If bi is not tied but bj is, we set ??ij (x?i , xj ) = 0.5. If bi , bj are tied then ?ji , ?ij can be shown to be maximized at either x?i , x?j = (0, 0), (1, 1) or x?i , x?j = (0, 1), (1, 0). We then set ??ij to be 0.5 at one of these assignment pairs. The resulting ?? is clearly primal feasible. Setting ?i? = b?i we obtain that the dual variables (? ? , ?? , ? ? ) and primal ?? satisfy complementary slackness for the LP in Eq. 7 and therefore ?? is primal optimal. The binary optimality result implies partial decodability, since [6] shows that the LP is partially decodable for binary variables. 6 Beyond pairwise potentials: Generalized MPLP In the previous sections we considered maximizing functions which factor according to the edges of the graph. A more general setting considers P clusters c1 , . . . , ck ? {1, . . . , n} (the set of clusters is denoted by C), and a function f (x; ?) = c ?c (xc ) defined via potentials over clusters ?c (xc ). The MAP problem in this case also has an LP relaxation (see e.g. [11]). To define the LP we introduce the following definitions: S = {c ? c? : c, c? ? C, c ? c? 6= ?} is the set of intersection between clusters and S(c) = {s ? S : s ? c} is the set of overlap sets for cluster c.We now consider marginals over the variables in c ? C and s ? S and require that cluster marginals agree on their overlap. Denote this set by ML (C). The LP relaxation is then to maximize ? ? ? subject to ? ? ML (C). As in Sec. 4, we can derive message passing updates that result in monotone decrease of the dual LP of the above relaxation. The derivation is similar and we omit the details. The key observation is that one needs to introduce |S(c)| copies of each marginal ?c (xc ) (instead of the two copies in the pairwise case). Next, as in the EMPLP derivation we assume all ? are fixed except those corresponding to some cluster c. The resulting messages are ?c?s (xs ) from a cluster c to all of its intersection sets s ? S(c). The update on these messages turns?out to be: ?   X 1 1 ? ??c max ? ??c ?c?s (xs ) = ? 1 ? s (xs ) + s? (xs?) + ?c (xc ) |S(c)| |S(c)| xc\s s ??S(c)\s where for a given c ? C all ?c?s should be updated simultaneously for s ? S(c), and ??c s (xs ) is defined as the sum of messages into s that are not from c. We refer to this algorithm as Generalized EMPLP (GEMPLP). It is possible to derive an algorithm similar to NMPLP that updates several clusters simultaneously, but its structure is more involved and we do not address it here. 7 Related Work Weiss et al. [11] recently studied the fixed points of a class of max-product like algorithms. Their analysis focused on properties of fixed points rather than convergence guarantees. Specifically, they showed that if the counting numbers used in a generalized max-product algorithm satisfy certain properties, then its fixed points will be the exact MAP if the beliefs have unique maxima, and for binary variables the solution can be partially decodable. Both these properties are obtained for the MPLP fixed points, and in fact we can show that MPLP satisfies the conditions in [11], so that we obtain these properties as corollaries of [11]. We stress however, that [11] does not address convergence of algorithms, but rather properties of their fixed points, if they converge. MPLP is similar in some aspects to Kolmogorov?s TRW-S algorithm [5]. TRW-S is also a monotone coordinate descent method in a dual of the LP relaxation and its fixed points also have similar 5 guarantees to those of MPLP [6]. Furthermore, convergence to a local optimum may occur, as it does for MPLP. One advantage of MPLP lies in the simplicity of its updates and the fact that it is parameter free. The other is its simple generalization to potentials over clusters of nodes (Sec. 6). Recently, several new dual LP algorithms have been introduced, which are more closely related to our formalism. Werner [12] presented a class of algorithms which also improve the dual LP at every iteration. The simplest of those is the max-sum-diffusion algorithm, which is similar to our EMPLP algorithm, although the updates are different from ours. Independently, Johnson et al. [4] presented a class of algorithms that improve duals of the MAP-LP using coordinate descent. They decompose the model into tractable parts by replicating variables and enforce replication constraints within the Lagrangian dual. Our basic formulation in Eq. 3 could be derived from their perspective. However, the updates in the algorithm and the analysis differ. Johnson et al. also presented a method for overcoming the local optimum problem, by smoothing the objective so that it is strictly convex. Such an approach could also be used within our algorithms. Vontobel and Koetter [9] recently introduced a coordinate descent algorithm for decoding LDPC codes. Their method is specifically tailored for this case, and uses updates that are similar to our edge based updates. Finally, the concept of dual coordinate descent may be used in approximating marginals as well. In [3] we use such an approach to optimize a variational bound on the partition function. The derivation uses some of the ideas used in the MPLP dual, but importantly does not find the minimum for each coordinate. Instead, a gradient like step is taken at every iteration to decrease the dual objective. 8 Experiments We compared NMPLP to three other message passing algorithms:2 Tree-Reweighted max-product (TRMP) [10],3 standard max-product (MP), and GEMPLP. For MP and TRMP we used the standard approach of damping messages using a factor of ? = 0.5. We ran all algorithms for a maximum of 2000 iterations, and used the hit-time measure to compare their speed of convergence. This measure is defined as follows: At every iteration the beliefs can be used to obtain an assignment x with value f (x). We define the hit-time as the first iteration at which the maximum value of f (x) is achieved.4 We first experimented with state. The function f (x) was Pa 10 ? 10 grid graph, with P 5 values per 5 a Potts model: f (x) = The values for ?ij and ?i (xi ) ij?E ?ij I(xi = xj ) + i?V ?i (xi ). were randomly drawn from [?cI , cI ] and [?cF , cF ] respectively, and we used values of cI and cF in the range range [0.1, 2.35] (with intervals of 0.25), resulting in 100 different models. The clusters for GEMPLP were the faces of the graph [14]. To see if NMPLP converges to the LP solution we also used an LP solver to solve the LP relaxation. We found that the the normalized difference between NMPLP and LP objective was at most 10?3 (median 10?7 ), suggesting that NMPLP typically converged to the LP solution. Fig. 2 (top row) shows the results for the three algorithms. It can be seen that while all non-cluster based algorithms obtain similar f (x) values, NMPLP has better hit-time (in the median) than TRMP and MP, and MP does not converge in many cases (see caption). GEMPLP converges more slowly than NMPLP, but obtains much better f (x) values. In fact, in 99% of the cases the normalized difference between the GEMPLP objective and the f (x) value was less than 10?5 , suggesting that the exact MAP solution was found. We next applied the algorithms to the real world problems of protein design. In [13], Yanover et al. show how these problems can be formalized in terms of finding a MAP in an appropriately constructed graphical model.6 We used all algorithms except GNMPLP (since there is no natural choice for clusters in this case) to approximate the MAP solution on the 97 models used in [13]. In these models the number of states per variable is 2 ? 158, and there are up to 180 variables per model. Fig. 2 (bottom) shows results for all the design problems. In this case only 11% of the MP runs converged, and NMPLP was better than TRMP in terms of hit-time and comparable in f (x) value. The performance of MP was good on the runs where it converged. 2 As expected, NMPLP was faster than EMPLP so only NMPLP results are given. The edge weights for TRMP corresponded to a uniform distribution over all spanning trees. 4 This is clearly a post-hoc measure since it can only be obtained after the algorithm has exceeded its maximum number of iterations. However, it is a reasonable algorithm-independent measure of convergence. 5 The potential ?i (xi ) may be folded into the pairwise potential to yield a model as in Eq. 1. 6 Data available from http://jmlr.csail.mit.edu/papers/volume7/yanover06a/Rosetta Design Dataset.tgz 3 6 (a) (b) (c) 100 (d) 0.6 2000 0.04 0.4 0.02 ?50 0 ?0.02 ?0.04 ?(Value) 0 1000 ?(Hit Time) ?(Value) ?(Hit Time) 50 0 MP TRMP GMPLP 0 ?0.2 ?1000 ?0.4 ?0.06 ?100 0.2 MP TRMP GMPLP MP TRMP MP TRMP Figure 2: Evaluation of message passing algorithms on Potts models and protein design problems. (a,c): Convergence time results for the Potts models (a) and protein design problems (c). The box-plots (horiz. red line indicates median) show the difference between the hit-time for the other algorithms and NMPLP. (b,d): Value of integer solutions for the Potts models (b) and protein design problems (d). The box-plots show the normalized difference between the value of f (x) for NMPLP and the other algorithms. All figures are such that better MPLP performance yields positive Y axis values. Max-product converged on 58% of the cases for the Potts models, and on 11% of the protein problems. Only convergent max-product runs are shown. 9 Conclusion We have presented a convergent algorithm for MAP approximation that is based on block coordinate descent of the MAP-LP relaxation dual. The algorithm can also be extended to cluster based functions, which result empirically in improved MAP estimates. This is in line with the observations in [14] that generalized belief propagation algorithms can result in significant performance improvements. However generalized max-product algorithms [14] are not guaranteed to converge whereas GMPLP is. Furthermore, the GMPLP algorithm does not require a region graph and only involves intersection between pairs of clusters. In conclusion, MPLP has the advantage of resolving the convergence problems of max-product while retaining its simplicity, and offering the theoretical guarantees of LP relaxations. We thus believe it should be useful in a wide array of applications. A Derivation of the dual Before deriving the dual, we first express the constraint set ML (G) in a slightly different way. The definition of ML (G) in Sec. 2 uses a single distribution ?ij (xi , xj ) for every ij ? E. In what follows, we use two copies of this pairwise distribution for every edge, which we denote ? ? ij (xi , xj ) and ? ?ji (xj , xi ), and we add the constraint that these two copies both equal the original ?ij (xi , xj ). For this extended set of pairwise marginals, we consider the following set of constraints which is clearly equivalent to ML (G). On the rightmost column we give the dual variables that will correspond to each constraint (we omit non-negativity constraints). ? ?ij (xi , xj ) = ?ij (xi , xj ) ? ?ji (xj , xi ) = ?ij (xi , xj ) P ?ij (? xi , xj ) = ?j (xj ) Px?i ? ? ? (? xj , xi ) = ?i (xi ) ji Px?j ? (x xi i i ) = 1 ?ij ? E, xi , xj ?ij ? E, xi , xj ?ij ? E, xj ?ji ? E, xi ?i ? V ?ij (xi , xj ) ?ji (xj , xi ) ?ij (xj ) ?ji (xi ) ?i (6) ? L (G). We can now state an LP that We denote the set of (?, ? ? ) satisfying these constraints by M is equivalent to MAPLPR, only with an extended set of variables and constraints. The equivalent ? L (G) (note that the objective uses the original problem is to maximize ? ? ? subject to (?, ? ?) ? M ? copy). LP duality transformation of the extended problem yields the following LP P min i ?i s.t. ?ij (xj ) ? ?ij (xi , xj ) ? 0 ?ij, ji ? E, xi , xj (7) ?ijP (xi , xj ) + ?ji (xj , xi ) = ?ij (xi , xj ) ?ij ? E, xi , xj ? k?N (i) ?ki (xi ) + ?i ? 0 ?i ? V, xi We next simplify the above LP by eliminating some of its constraints and variables. Since each variableP?i appears in only one constraint, and the objective minimizes ?i it follows that ?i = maxxi k?N (i) ?ki (xi ) and the constraints with ?i can be discarded. Similarly, since ?ij (xj ) appears in a single constraint, we have that for all ij ? E, ji ? E, xi , xj ?ij (xj ) = maxxi ?ij (xi , xj ) and the constraints with ?ij (xj ), ?ji (xi ) can also be discarded. Using the eliminated ?i and ?ji (xi ) 7 variables, we obtain that the LP in Eq. 7 is equivalent to that in Eq. 3. Note that the objective in Eq. 3 is convex since it is a sum of point-wise maxima of convex functions. B Proof of Proposition 2 We wish to minimize f in Eq. 4 subject to the constraint that ?ij + ?ji = ?ij . Rewrite f as h i   f (?ij , ?ji ) = max ??j (x ) + ? (x , x ) + max ??i i ji j i j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) i xi ,xj xi ,xj (8) ?i The sum of the two arguments in the max is ??j i (xi ) + ?j (xj ) + ?ij (xi , xj ) (because of h the constraints on ?). i Thus the minimum must be greater than ?j ?i 1 max ? (x ) + ? (x ) + ? (x , x ) xi ,xj i j ij i j . One assignment to ? that achieves this minii j 2 mum is obtained by requiring an equalization condition:7  1 ?j ?j ?i ??i (x ) + ? (x , x ) = ? (x ) + ? (x , x ) = ? (x , x ) + ? (x ) + ? (x ) (9) j ij i j i ji j i ij i j i j j i i j 2   ?i which implies ?ij (xi , xj ) = 12 ?ij (xi , xj ) + ??j i (xi ) ? ?j (xj ) and a similar expression for ?ji . The resulting ?ij (xj ) = maxxi ?ij (xi , xj ) are then the ones in Prop. 2. Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge support from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Transfer Learning program). Amir Globerson was also supported by the Rothschild Yad-Hanadiv fellowship. References [1] M. Bayati, D. Shah, and M. Sharma. Maximum weight matching via max-product belief propagation. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory (to appear), 2007. [2] D. P. Bertsekas, editor. Nonlinear Programming. Athena Scientific, Belmont, MA, 1995. [3] A. Globerson and T. Jaakkola. Convergent propagation algorithms via oriented trees. In UAI. 2007. [4] J.K. Johnson, D.M. Malioutov, and A.S. Willsky. Lagrangian relaxation for map estimation in graphical models. In Allerton Conf. Communication, Control and Computing, 2007. [5] V. Kolmogorov. Convergent tree-reweighted message passing for energy minimization. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 28(10):1568?1583, 2006. [6] V. Kolmogorov and M. Wainwright. On the optimality of tree-reweighted max-product message passing. In 21st Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI). 2005. [7] J. Pearl. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. [8] B. Taskar, S. Lacoste-Julien, and M. Jordan. Structured prediction, dual extragradient and bregman projections. Journal of Machine Learning Research, pages 1627?1653, 2006. [9] P.O. Vontobel and R. Koetter. Towards low-complexity linear-programming decoding. In Proc. 4th Int. Symposium on Turbo Codes and Related Topics, 2006. [10] M. J. Wainwright, T. Jaakkola, and A. S. Willsky. Map estimation via agreement on trees: messagepassing and linear programming. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, 51(11):1120?1146, 2005. [11] Y. Weiss, C. Yanover, and T. Meltzer. Map estimation, linear programming and belief propagation with convex free energies. In UAI. 2007. [12] T. Werner. A linear programming approach to max-sum, a review. IEEE Trans. on PAMI, 2007. [13] C. Yanover, T. Meltzer, and Y. Weiss. Linear programming relaxations and belief propagation ? an empirical study. Jourmal of Machine Learning Research, 7:1887?1907, 2006. [14] J.S. Yedidia, W.T. W.T. Freeman, and Y. Weiss. Constructing free-energy approximations and generalized belief propagation algorithms. IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, 51(7):2282?2312, 2005. 7 Other solutions are possible but may not yield some of the properties of MPLP. 8
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A Kernel Statistical Test of Independence Arthur Gretton MPI for Biological Cybernetics T?ubingen, Germany [email protected] Le Song NICTA, ANU and University of Sydney [email protected] Kenji Fukumizu Inst. of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo Japan [email protected] Bernhard Sch?olkopf MPI for Biological Cybernetics T?ubingen, Germany [email protected] Choon Hui Teo NICTA, ANU Canberra, Australia [email protected] Alexander J. Smola NICTA, ANU Canberra, Australia [email protected] Abstract Although kernel measures of independence have been widely applied in machine learning (notably in kernel ICA), there is as yet no method to determine whether they have detected statistically significant dependence. We provide a novel test of the independence hypothesis for one particular kernel independence measure, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). The resulting test costs O(m2 ), where m is the sample size. We demonstrate that this test outperforms established contingency table and functional correlation-based tests, and that this advantage is greater for multivariate data. Finally, we show the HSIC test also applies to text (and to structured data more generally), for which no other independence test presently exists. 1 Introduction Kernel independence measures have been widely applied in recent machine learning literature, most commonly in independent component analysis (ICA) [2, 11], but also in fitting graphical models [1] and in feature selection [22]. One reason for their success is that these criteria have a zero expected value if and only if the associated random variables are independent, when the kernels are universal (in the sense of [23]). There is presently no way to tell whether the empirical estimates of these dependence measures indicate a statistically significant dependence, however. In other words, we are interested in the threshold an empirical kernel dependence estimate must exceed, before we can dismiss with high probability the hypothesis that the underlying variables are independent. Statistical tests of independence have been associated with a broad variety of dependence measures. Classical tests such as Spearman?s ? and Kendall?s ? are widely applied, however they are not guaranteed to detect all modes of dependence between the random variables. Contingency tablebased methods, and in particular the power-divergence family of test statistics [17], are the best known general purpose tests of independence, but are limited to relatively low dimensions, since they require a partitioning of the space in which each random variable resides. Characteristic functionbased tests [6, 13] have also been proposed, which are more general than kernel density-based tests [19], although to our knowledge they have been used only to compare univariate random variables. In this paper we present three main results: first, and most importantly, we show how to test whether statistically significant dependence is detected by a particular kernel independence measure, the Hilbert Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC, from [9]). That is, we provide a fast (O(m2 ) for sample size m) and accurate means of obtaining a threshold which HSIC will only exceed with small probability, when the underlying variables are independent. Second, we show the distribution 1 of our empirical test statistic in the large sample limit can be straightforwardly parameterised in terms of kernels on the data. Third, we apply our test to structured data (in this case, by establishing the statistical dependence between a text and its translation). To our knowledge, ours is the first independence test for structured data. We begin our presentation in Section 2, with a short overview of cross-covariance operators between RKHSs and their Hilbert-Schmidt norms: the latter are used to define the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). In Section 3, we describe how to determine whether the dependence returned via HSIC is statistically significant, by proposing a hypothesis test with HSIC as its statistic. In particular, we show that this test can be parameterised using a combination of covariance operator norms and norms of mean elements of the random variables in feature space. Finally, in Section 4, we give our experimental results, both for testing dependence between random vectors (which could be used for instance to verify convergence in independent subspace analysis [25]), and for testing dependence between text and its translation. Software to implement the test may be downloaded from http : //www.kyb.mpg.de/bs/people/arthur/indep.htm 2 Definitions and description of HSIC Our problem setting is as follows: Problem 1 Let Pxy be a Borel probability measure defined on a domain X ? Y, and let Px and Py be the respective marginal distributions on X and Y. Given an i.i.d sample Z := (X, Y ) = {(x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym )} of size m drawn independently and identically distributed according to Pxy , does Pxy factorise as Px Py (equivalently, we may write x ? ? y)? We begin with a description of our kernel dependence criterion, leaving to the following section the question of whether this dependence is significant. This presentation is largely a review of material from [9, 11, 22], the main difference being that we establish links to the characteristic function-based independence criteria in [6, 13]. Let F be an RKHS, with the continuous feature mapping ?(x) ? F from each x ? X, such that the inner product between the features is given by the kernel function k(x, x? ) := h?(x), ?(x? )i. Likewise, let G be a second RKHS on Y with kernel l(?, ?) and feature map ?(y). Following [7], the cross-covariance operator Cxy : G ? F is defined such that for all f ? F and g ? G, hf, Cxy giF = Exy ([f (x) ? Ex (f (x))] [g(y) ? Ey (g(y))]) . The cross-covariance operator itself can then be written Cxy := Exy [(?(x) ? ?x ) ? (?(y) ? ?y )], (1) where ?x := Ex ?(x), ?y := Ey ?(y), and ? is the tensor product [9, Eq. 6]: this is a generalisation of the cross-covariance matrix between random vectors. When F and G are universal reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (that is, dense in the space of bounded continuous functions [23]) on the compact domains X and Y, then the largest singular value of this operator, kCxy k, is zero if and only if x ? ? y [11, Theorem 6]: the operator therefore induces an independence criterion, and can be used to solve Problem 1. The maximum singular value gives a criterion similar to that originally proposed in [18], but with more restrictive function classes (rather than functions of bounded variance). Rather than the maximum singular value, we may use the squared Hilbert-Schmidt norm (the sum of the squared singular values), which has a population expression HSIC(Pxy , F, G) = Exx? yy? [k(x, x? )l(y, y ? )] + Exx? [k(x, x? )]Eyy? [l(y, y ? )] ? 2Exy [Ex? [k(x, x? )]Ey? [l(y, y ? )]] (2) (assuming the expectations exist), where x? denotes an independent copy of x [9, Lemma 1]: we call this the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). We now address the problem of estimating HSIC(Pxy , F, G) on the basis of the sample Z. An unbiased estimator of (2) is a sum of three U-statistics [21, 22], X X X 1 1 1 kij lij + kij lqr ? 2 kij liq , (3) HSIC(Z) = (m)2 (m)4 (m)3 m m m (i,j)?i2 (i,j,q,r)?i4 2 (i,j,q)?i3 m! where (m)n := (m?n)! , the index set im r denotes the set all r-tuples drawn without replacement from the set {1, . . . , m}, kij := k(xi , xj ), and lij := l(yi , yj ). For the purpose of testing independence, however, we will find it easier to use an alternative, biased empirical estimate [9, Definition 2], obtained by replacing the U-statistics with V-statistics1 HSICb (Z) = m m m 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 k l + k l ? 2 kij liq = 2 trace(KHLH), ij ij ij qr 2 4 3 m i,j m i,j,q,r m i,j,q m (4) where the summation indices now denote all r-tuples drawn with replacement from {1, . . . , m} (r 1 being the number of indices below the sum), K is the m?m matrix with entries kij , H = I? m 11? , 2 and 1 is an m ? 1 vector of ones (the cost of computing this statistic is O(m )). When a Gaussian 2 kernel kij := exp ?? ?2 kxi ? xj k is used (or a kernel deriving from [6, Eq. 4.10]), the latter statistic is equivalent to the characteristic function-based statistic [6, Eq. 4.11] and the T 2n statistic of [13, p. 54]: details are reproduced in [10] for comparison. Our setting allows for more general kernels, however, such as kernels on strings (as in our experiments in Section 4) and graphs (see [20] for further details of kernels on structures): this is not possible under the characteristic function framework, which is restricted to Euclidean spaces (Rd in the case of [6, 13]). As pointed out in [6, Section 5], the statistic in (4) can also be linked to the original quadratic test of Rosenblatt [19] given an appropriate kernel choice; the main differences being that characteristic function-based tests (and RKHS-based tests) are not restricted to using kernel densities, nor should they reduce their kernel width with increasing sample size. Another related test described in [4] is based on the functional canonical correlation between F and G, rather than the covariance: in this sense the test statistic resembles those in [2]. The approach in [4] differs with both the present work and [2], however, in that the function spaces F and G are represented by finite sets of basis functions (specifically B-spline kernels) when computing the empirical test statistic. 3 Test description We now describe a statistical test of independence for two random variables, based on the test statistic HSICb (Z). We begin with a more formal introduction to the framework and terminology of statistical hypothesis testing. Given the i.i.d. sample Z defined earlier, the statistical test, T(Z) : (X ? Y)m 7? {0, 1} is used to distinguish between the null hypothesis H0 : Pxy = Px Py and the alternative hypothesis H1 : Pxy 6= Px Py . This is achieved by comparing the test statistic, in our case HSICb (Z), with a particular threshold: if the threshold is exceeded, then the test rejects the null hypothesis (bearing in mind that a zero population HSIC indicates Pxy = Px Py ). The acceptance region of the test is thus defined as any real number below the threshold. Since the test is based on a finite sample, it is possible that an incorrect answer will be returned: the Type I error is defined as the probability of rejecting H0 based on the observed sample, despite x and y being independent. Conversely, the Type II error is the probability of accepting Pxy = Px Py when the underlying variables are dependent. The level ? of a test is an upper bound on the Type I error, and is a design parameter of the test, used to set the test threshold. A consistent test achieves a level ?, and a Type II error of zero, in the large sample limit. How, then, do we set the threshold of the test given ?? The approach we adopt here is to derive the asymptotic distribution of the empirical estimate HSICb (Z) of HSIC(Pxy , F, G) under H0 . We then use the 1 ? ? quantile of this distribution as the test threshold.2 Our presentation in this section is therefore divided into two parts. First, we obtain the distribution of HSICb (Z) under both H0 and H1 ; the latter distribution is also needed to ensure consistency of the test. We shall see, however, that the null distribution has a complex form, and cannot be evaluated directly. Thus, in the second part of this section, we describe ways to accurately approximate the 1 ? ? quantile of this distribution. Asymptotic distribution of HSICb (Z) We now describe the distribution of the test statistic in (4) The first theorem holds under H1 . 1 The U- and V-statistics differ in that the latter allow indices of different sums to be equal. An alternative would be to use a large deviation bound, as provided for instance by [9] based on Hoeffding?s inequality. It has been reported in [8], however, that such bounds are generally too loose for hypothesis testing. 2 3 Theorem 1 Let hijqr = 1 4! (i,j,q,r) X ktu ltu + ktu lvw ? 2ktu ltv , (5) (t,u,v,w) where the sum represents all ordered quadruples (t, u, v, w) drawn without replacement from (i, j, q, r), and assume E h2 < ?. Under H1 , HSICb (Z) converges in distribution as m ? ? to a Gaussian according to  1 D m 2 (HSICb (Z) ? HSIC(Pxy , F, G)) ? N 0, ?u2 . (6)    2 The variance is ?u2 = 16 Ei Ej,q,r hijqr ? HSIC(Pxy , F, G) , where Ej,q,r := Ezj ,zq ,zr . Proof We first rewrite (4) as a single V-statistic, HSICb (Z) = m 1 X hijqr , m4 i,j,q,r (7) where we note that hijqr defined in (5) does not change with permutation of its indices. The associated U-statistic HSICs (Z) converges in distribution as (6) with variance ?u2 [21, Theorem 5.5.1(A)]: see [22]. Since the difference between HSICb (Z) and HSICs (Z) drops as 1/m (see [9], or Theorem 3 below), HSICb (Z) converges asymptotically to the same distribution. The second theorem applies under H0 Theorem 2 Under H0 , the U-statistic HSICs (Z) corresponding to the V-statistic in (7) is degenerate, meaning Ei hijqr = 0. In this case, HSICb (Z) converges in distribution according to [21, Section 5.5.2] ? X D mHSICb (Z) ? ?l zl2 , (8) l=1 where zl ? N(0, 1) i.i.d., and ?l are the solutions to the eigenvalue problem Z ?l ?l (zj ) = hijqr ?l (zi )dFi,q,r , where the integral is over the distribution of variables zi , zq , and zr . Proof This follows from the discussion of [21, Section 5.5.2], making appropriate allowance for the fact that we are dealing with a V-statistic (which is why the terms in (8) are not centred: in the case of a U-statistic, the sum would be over terms ?l (zl2 ? 1)). Approximating the 1 ? ? quantile of the null distribution A hypothesis test using HSICb (Z) could be derived from Theorem 2 above by computing the (1 ? ?)th quantile of the distribution (8), where consistency of the test (that is, the convergence to zero of the Type II error for m ? ?) is guaranteed by the decay as m?1 of the variance of HSICb (Z) under H1 . The distribution under H0 is complex, however: the question then becomes how to accurately approximate its quantiles. One approach, taken by [6], is to use a Monte Carlo resampling technique: the ordering of the Y sample is permuted repeatedly while that of X is kept fixed, and the 1 ? ? quantile is obtained from the resulting distribution of HSICb values. This can be very expensive, however. A second approach, suggested in [13, p. 34], is to approximate the null distribution as a two-parameter Gamma distribution [12, p. 343, p. 359]: this is one of the more straightforward approximations of an infinite sum of ?2 variables (see [12, Chapter 18.8] for further ways to approximate such distributions; in particular, we wish to avoid using moments of order greater than two, since these can become expensive to compute). Specifically, we make the approximation mHSICb (Z) ? x??1 e?x/? ? ? ?(?) where ? = (E(HSICb (Z)))2 , var(HSICb (Z)) 4 ?= mvar(HSICb (Z)) . E(HSICb (Z)) (9) Figure 1: mHSICb cumulative distribution function (Emp) under H 0 for m = 200, obtained empirically using 5000 independent draws of mHSICb . The two-parameter Gamma distribution (Gamma) is fit using ? = 1.17 and ? = 8.3 ? 10?4 in (9), with mean and variance computed via Theorems 3 and 4. P(mHSICb(Z) < mHSICb) An illustration of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) obtained via the Gamma approximation is given in Figure 1, along with an empirical CDF obtained by repeated draws of HSICb . We note the Gamma approximation is quite accurate, especially in areas of high probability (which we use to compute the test quantile). The accuracy of this approximation will be further evaluated experimentally in Section 4. 1 To obtain the Gamma distribution from our observa0.8 tions, we need empirical estimates for E(HSICb (Z)) and 0.6 var(HSICb (Z)) under the null hypothesis. Expressions 0.4 for these quantities are given in [13, pp. 26-27], however these are in terms of the joint and marginal characterisEmp 0.2 tic functions, and not in our more general kernel setting Gamma 0 (see also [14, p. 313]). In the following two theorems, 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 mHSIC b we provide much simpler expressions for both quantities, in terms of norms of mean elements ?x and ?y , and the covariance operators Cxx := Ex [(?(x) ? ?x ) ? (?(x) ? ?x )] and Cyy , in feature space. The main advantage of our new expressions is that they are computed entirely in terms of kernels, which makes possible the application of the test to any domains on which kernels can be defined, and not only Rd . Theorem 3 Under H0 ,  1 1  2 2 2 2 TrCxx TrCyy = 1 + k?x k k?y k ? k?x k ? k?y k , (10) m m where the second equality assumes kii = lii = 1. An empirical estimate of this statistic is obtained P 2 \ by replacing the norms above with k? k = (m)?1 k , bearing in mind that this results E(HSICb (Z)) = x in a (generally negligible) bias of O(m ?1 2 (i,j)?im 2 ij 2 2 ) in the estimate of k?x k k?y k . Theorem 4 Under H0 , var(HSICb (Z)) = 2(m ? 4)(m ? 5) kCxx k2HS kCyy k2HS + O(m?3 ). (m)4 Denoting by ? the entrywise matrix product, A?2 the entrywise matrix power, and B = ((HKH) ? (HLH))?2 , an empirical estimate with negligible bias may be found by replacing the product of covariance operator norms with 1? (B ? diag(B)) 1: this is slightly more efficient than taking the product of the empirical operator norms (although the scaling with m is unchanged). Proofs of both theorems may be found in [10], where we also compare with the original characteristic function-based expressions in [13]. We remark that these parameters, like the original test statistic in (4), may be computed in O(m2 ). 4 Experiments General tests of statistical independence are most useful for data having complex interactions that simple correlation does not detect. We investigate two cases where this situation arises: first, we test vectors in Rd which have a dependence relation but no correlation, as occurs in independent subspace analysis; and second, we study the statistical dependence between a text and its translation. Independence of subspaces One area where independence tests have been applied is in determining the convergence of algorithms for independent component analysis (ICA), which involves separating random variables that have been linearly mixed, using only their mutual independence. ICA generally entails optimisation over a non-convex function (including when HSIC is itself the optimisation criterion [9]), and is susceptible to local minima, hence the need for these tests (in fact, for classical approaches to ICA, the global minimum of the optimisation might not correspond to independence for certain source distributions). Contingency table-based tests have been applied [15] 5 in this context, while the test of [13] has been used in [14] for verifying ICA outcomes when the data are stationary random processes (through using a subset of samples with a sufficiently large delay between them). Contingency table-based tests may be less useful in the case of independent subspace analysis (ISA, see e.g. [25] and its bibliography), where higher dimensional independent random vectors are to be separated. Thus, characteristic function-based tests [6, 13] and kernel independence measures might work better for this problem. In our experiments, we tested the independence of random vectors, as a way of verifying the solutions of independent subspace analysis. We assumed for ease of presentation that our subspaces have respective dimension dx = dy = d, but this is not required. The data were constructed as follows. First, we generated m samples of two univariate random variables, each drawn at random from the ICA benchmark densities in [11, Table 3]: these include super-Gaussian, sub-Gaussian, multimodal, and unimodal distributions. Second, we mixed these random variables using a rotation matrix parameterised by an angle ?, varying from 0 to ?/4 (a zero angle means the data are independent, while dependence becomes easier to detect as the angle increases to ?/4: see the two plots in Figure 2, top left). Third, we appended d ? 1 dimensional Gaussian noise of zero mean and unit standard deviation to each of the mixtures. Finally, we multiplied each resulting vector by an independent random d-dimensional orthogonal matrix, to obtain vectors dependent across all observed dimensions. We emphasise that classical approaches (such as Spearman?s ? or Kendall?s ? ) are completely unable to find this dependence, since the variables are uncorrelated; nor can we recover the subspace in which the variables are dependent using PCA, since this subspace has the same second order properties as the noise. We investigated sample sizes m = 128, 512, 1024, 2048, and d = 1, 2, 4. We compared two different methods for computing the 1 ? ? quantile of the HSIC null distribution: repeated random permutation of the Y sample ordering as in [6] (HSICp), where we used 200 permutations; and Gamma approximation (HSICg) as in [13], based on (9). We used a Gaussian kernel, with kernel size set to the median distance between points in input space. We also compared with two alternative tests, the first based on a discretisation of the variables, and the second on functional canonical correlation. The discretisation based test was a power-divergence contingency table test from [17] (PD), which consisted in partitioning the space, counting the number of samples falling in each partition, and comparing this with the number of samples that would be expected under the null hypothesis (the test we used, described in [15], is more refined than this short description would suggest). Rather than a uniform space partitioning, we divided our space into roughly equiprobable bins as in [15], using a Gessaman partition for higher dimensions [5, Figure 21.4] (Ku and Fine did not specify a space partitioning strategy for higher dimensions, since they dealt only with univariate random variables). All remaining parameters were set according to [15]. The functional correlationbased test (fCorr) is described in [4]: the main differences with respect to our test are that it uses the spectrum of the functional correlation operator, rather than the covariance operator; and that it approximates the RKHSs F and G by finite sets of basis functions. Parameter settings were as in [4, Table 1], with the second order B-spline kernel and a twofold dyadic partitioning. Note that fCorr applies only in the univariate case. Results are plotted in Figure 2 (average over 500 repetitions). The y-intercept on these plots corresponds to the acceptance rate of H0 at independence, or 1 ? (Type I error), and should be close to the design parameter of 1 ? ? = 0.95. Elsewhere, the plots indicate acceptance of H0 where the underlying variables are dependent, i.e. the Type II error. As expected, we observe that dependence becomes easier to detect as ? increases from 0 to ?/4, when m increases, and when d decreases. The PD and fCorr tests perform poorly at m = 128, but approach the performance of HSIC-based tests for increasing m (although PD remains slightly worse than HSIC at m = 512 and d = 1, while fCorr becomes slightly worse again than PD). PD also scales very badly with d, and never rejects the null hypothesis when d = 4, even for m = 2048. Although HSIC-based tests are unreliable for small ?, they generally do well as ? approaches ?/4 (besides m = 128, d = 2). We also emphasise that HSICp and HSICg perform identically, although HSICp is far more costly (by a factor of around 100, given the number of permutations used). Dependence and independence between text In this section, we demonstrate independence testing on text. Our data are taken from the Canadian Hansard corpus (http : //www.isi.edu/natural ? language/download/hansard/). These consist of the official records of the 36th Canadian parliament, in English and French. We used debate transcripts on the three topics of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Immigration, due to the relatively large volume of data in these categories. Our goal was to test whether there exists a statistical dependence between 6 Rotation ? = ?/8 Rotation ? = ?/4 2 1 1 1 0 ?1 ?2 ?2 ?2 0 ?3 2 ?2 X Samp:512, Dim:1 0.5 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 1 1 Samp:2048, Dim:4 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 Angle (??/4) 0.5 Angle (??/4) 0 0.8 0 0 0.2 Samp:1024, Dim:4 % acceptance of H 0.2 0.4 0 0 1 1 0 % acceptance of H 0 0.4 0.5 0.6 Angle (??/4) Samp:512, Dim:2 0.6 Angle (??/4) 0.2 0 0 2 1 0.8 0 0 0.4 X 1 % acceptance of H 0 0.6 0.8 0 ?3 PD fCorr HSICp HSICg 0.8 % acceptance of H ?1 % acceptance of H Y Y 0 0 2 Samp:128, Dim:2 Samp:128, Dim:1 1 % acceptance of H 3 0 3 0.5 Angle (??/4) 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.5 1 Angle (??/4) Figure 2: Top left plots: Example dataset for d = 1, m = 200, and rotation angles ? = ?/8 (left) and ? = ?/4 (right). In this case, both sources are mixtures of two Gaussians (source (g) in [11, Table 3]). We remark that the random variables appear ?more dependent? as the angle ? increases, although their correlation is always zero. Remaining plots: Rate of acceptance of H 0 for the PD, fCorr, HSICp, and HSICg tests. ?Samp? is the number m of samples, and ?dim? is the dimension d of x and y. English text and its French translation. Our dependent data consisted of a set of paragraph-long (5 line) English extracts and their French translations. For our independent data, the English paragraphs were matched to random French paragraphs on the same topic: for instance, an English paragraph on fisheries would always be matched with a French paragraph on fisheries. This was designed to prevent a simple vocabulary check from being used to tell when text was mismatched. We also ignored lines shorter than five words long, since these were not always part of the text (e.g. identification of the person speaking). We used the k-spectrum kernel of [16], computed according to the method of [24]. We set k = 10 for both languages, where this was chosen by cross validating on an SVM classifier for Fisheries vs National Defense, separately for each language (performance was not especially sensitive to choice of k; k = 5 also worked well). We compared this kernel with a simple kernel between bags of words [3, pp. 186?189]. Results are in Table 1. Our results demonstrate the excellent performance of the HSICp test on this task: even for small sample sizes, HSICp with a spectral kernel always achieves zero Type II error, and a Type I error close to the design value (0.95). We further observe for m = 10 that HSICp with the spectral kernel always has better Type II error than the bag-of words kernel. This suggests that a kernel with a more sophisticated encoding of text structure induces a more sensitive test, although for larger sample sizes, the advantage vanishes. The HSICg test does less well on this data, always accepting H0 for m = 10, and returning a Type I error of zero, rather than the design value of 5%, when m = 50. It appears that this is due to a very low variance estimate returned by the Theorem 4 expression, which could be caused by the high diagonal dominance of kernels on strings. Thus, while the test threshold for HSICg at m = 50 still fell between the dependent and independent values of HSICb , this was not the result of an accurate modelling of the null distribution. We would therefore recommend the permutation approach for this problem. Finally, we also tried testing with 2-line extracts and 10-line extracts, which yielded similar results. 5 Conclusion We have introduced a test of whether significant statistical dependence is obtained by a kernel dependence measure, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). Our test costs O(m2 ) for sample size m. In our experiments, HSIC-based tests always outperformed the contingency table [17] and functional correlation [4] approaches, for both univariate random variables and higher dimensional vectors which were dependent but uncorrelated. We would therefore recommend HSIC-based tests for checking the convergence of independent component analysis and independent subspace analysis. Finally, our test also applies on structured domains, being able to detect the dependence 7 Table 1: Independence tests for cross-language dependence detection. Topics are in the first column, where the total number of 5-line extracts for each dataset is in parentheses. BOW(10) denotes a bag of words kernel and m = 10 sample size, Spec(50) is a k-spectrum kernel with m = 50. The first entry in each cell is the null acceptance rate of the test under H 0 (i.e. 1 ? (Type I error); should be near 0.95); the second entry is the null acceptance rate under H 1 (the Type II error, small is better). Each entry is an average over 300 repetitions. BOW(10) Spec(10) BOW(50) Spec(50) Topic HSICg HSICp HSICg HSICp HSICg HSICp HSICg HSICp Agriculture 1.00, 0.94, 1.00, 0.95, 1.00, 0.93, 1.00, 0.95, (555) 0.99 0.18 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Fisheries 1.00, 0.94, 1.00, 0.94, 1.00, 0.93, 1.00, 0.95, (408) 1.00 0.20 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Immigration 1.00, 0.96, 1.00, 0.91, 0.99, 0.94, 1.00, 0.95, (289) 1.00 0.09 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 of passages of text and their translation.Another application along these lines might be in testing dependence between data of completely different types, such as images and captions. Acknowledgements: NICTA is funded through the Australian Government?s Backing Australia?s Ability initiative, in part through the ARC. This work was supported in part by the IST Programme of the European Community, under the PASCAL Network of Excellence, IST-2002-506778. 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Approximation Theorems of Mathematical Statistics. Wiley, New York, 1980. L. Song, A. Smola, A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, and J. Bedo. Supervised feature selection via dependence estimation. In Proc. Intl. Conf. Machine Learning, pages 823?830. Omnipress, 2007. I. Steinwart. The influence of the kernel on the consistency of support vector machines. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2, 2002. C. H. Teo and S. V. N. Vishwanathan. Fast and space efficient string kernels using suffix arrays. In ICML, pages 929?936, 2006. F.J. Theis. Towards a general independent subspace analysis. In NIPS 19, 2007. 8
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PSVM: Parallelizing Support Vector Machines on Distributed Computers Edward Y. Chang?, Kaihua Zhu, Hao Wang, Hongjie Bai, Jian Li, Zhihuan Qiu, & Hang Cui Google Research, Beijing, China Abstract Support Vector Machines (SVMs) suffer from a widely recognized scalability problem in both memory use and computational time. To improve scalability, we have developed a parallel SVM algorithm (PSVM), which reduces memory use through performing a row-based, approximate matrix factorization, and which loads only essential data to each machine to perform parallel computation. Let n denote the number of training instances, p the reduced matrix dimension after factorization (p is significantly smaller than n), and m the number of machines. PSVM reduces the memory requirement from O(n2 ) to O(np/m), and improves computation time to O(np2 /m). Empirical study shows PSVM to be effective. PSVM Open Source is available for download at http://code.google.com/p/psvm/. 1 Introduction Let us examine the resource bottlenecks of SVMs in a binary classification setting to explain our proposed solution. Given a set of training data X = {(xi , yi )|xi ? Rd }ni=1 , where xi is an observation vector, yi ? {?1, 1} is the class label of xi , and n is the size of X , we apply SVMs on X to train a binary classifier. SVMs aim to search a hyperplane in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) that maximizes the margin between the two classes of data in X with the smallest training error (Vapnik, 1995). This problem can be formulated as the following quadratic optimization problem: n X 1 ?i (1) min P(w, b, ?) = kwk22 + C 2 i=1 s.t. 1 ? yi (wT ?(xi ) + b) ? ?i , ?i > 0, where w is a weighting vector, b is a threshold, C a regularization hyperparameter, and ?(?) a basis function which maps xi to an RKHS space. The decision function of SVMs is f (x) = wT ?(x) + b, where the w and b are attained by solving P in (1). The optimization problem in (1) is the primal formulation of SVMs. It is hard to solve P directly, partly because the explicit mapping via ?(?) can make the problem intractable and partly because the mapping function ?(?) is often unknown. The method of Lagrangian multipliers is thus introduced to transform the primal formulation into the dual one 1 T ? Q? ? ?T 1 2 s.t. 0 ? ? ? C, yT ? = 0, min D(?) = (2) where [Q]ij = yi yj ?T (xi )?(xj ), and ? ? Rn is the Lagrangian multiplier variable (or dual Pn variable). The weighting vector w is related with ? in w = i=1 ?i ?(xi ). ? This work was initiated in 2005 when the author was a professor at UCSB. 1 The dual formulation D(?) requires an inner product of ?(xi ) and ?(xj ). SVMs utilize the kernel trick by specifying a kernel function to define the inner-product K(xi , xj ) = ?T (xi )?(xj ). We thus can rewrite [Q]ij as yi yj K(xi , xj ). When the given kernel function K is psd (positive semidefinite), the dual problem D(?) is a convex Quadratic Programming (QP) problem with linear constraints, which can be solved via the Interior-Point method (IPM) (Mehrotra, 1992). Both the computational and memory bottlenecks of the SVM training are the IPM solver to the dual formulation of SVMs in (2). Currently, the most effective IPM algorithm is the primal-dual IPM (Mehrotra, 1992). The principal idea of the primal-dual IPM is to remove inequality constraints using a barrier function and then resort to the iterative Newton?s method to solve the KKT linear system related to the Hessian matrix Q in D(?). The computational cost is O(n3 ) and the memory usage O(n2 ). In this work, we propose a parallel SVM algorithm (PSVM) to reduce memory use and to parallelize both data loading and computation. Given n training instances each with d dimensions, PSVM first loads the training data in a round-robin fashion onto m machines. The memory requirement per machine is O(nd/m). Next, PSVM performs a parallel row-based Incomplete Cholesky Factorization (ICF) on the loaded data. At the end of parallel ICF, each machine stores only a fraction of the factorized matrix, which takes up space of O(np/m), ? where p is the column dimension of the factorized matrix. (Typically, p can be set to be about n without noticeably degrading training accuracy.) PSVM reduces memory use of IPM from O(n2 ) to O(np/m), where p/m is much smaller than n. PSVM then performs parallel IPM to solve the quadratic optimization problem in (2). The computation time is improved from about O(n2 ) of a decomposition-based algorithm (e.g., SVMLight (Joachims, 1998), LIBSVM (Chang & Lin, 2001), SMO (Platt, 1998), and SimpleSVM (Vishwanathan et al., 2003)) to O(np2 /m). This work?s main contributions are: (1) PSVM achieves memory reduction and computation speedup via a parallel ICF algorithm and parallel IPM. (2) PSVM handles kernels (in contrast to other algorithmic approaches (Joachims, 2006; Chu et al., 2006)). (3) We have implemented PSVM on our parallel computing infrastructures. PSVM effectively speeds up training time for large-scale tasks while maintaining high training accuracy. PSVM is a practical, parallel approximate implementation to speed up SVM training on today?s distributed computing infrastructures for dealing with Web-scale problems. What we do not claim are as follows: (1) We make no claim that PSVM is the sole solution to speed up SVMs. Algorithmic approaches such as (Lee & Mangasarian, 2001; Tsang et al., 2005; Joachims, 2006; Chu et al., 2006) can be more effective when memory is not a constraint or kernels are not used. (2) We do not claim that the algorithmic approach is the only avenue to speed up SVM training. Data-processing approaches such as (Graf et al., 2005) can divide a serial algorithm (e.g., LIBSVM) into subtasks on subsets of training data to achieve good speedup. (Data-processing and algorithmic approaches complement each other, and can be used together to handle large-scale training.) 2 PSVM Algorithm The key step of PSVM is parallel ICF (PICF). Traditional column-based ICF (Fine & Scheinberg, 2001; Bach & Jordan, 2005) can reduce computational cost, but the initial memory requirement is O(np), and hence not practical for very large data set. PSVM devises parallel row-based ICF (PICF) as its initial step, which loads training instances onto parallel machines and performs factorization simultaneously on these machines. Once PICF has loaded n training data distributedly on m machines, and reduced the size of the kernel matrix through factorization, IPM can be solved on parallel machines simultaneously. We present PICF first, and then describe how IPM takes advantage of PICF. 2.1 Parallel ICF ICF can approximate Q (Q ? Rn?n ) by a smaller matrix H (H ? Rn?p , p ? n), i.e., Q ? HH T . ICF, together with SMW (the Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury formula), can greatly reduce the computational complexity in solving an n ? n linear system. The work of (Fine & Scheinberg, 2001) provides a theoretical analysis of how ICF influences the optimization problem in Eq.(2). The authors proved that the error of the optimal objective value introduced by ICF is bounded by C 2 l?/2, where C is the hyperparameter of SVM, l is the number of support vectors, and ? is the bound of 2 Algorithm 1 Row-based PICF Input: n training instances; p: rank of ICF matrix H; m: number of machines Output: H distributed on m machines Variables: v: fraction of the diagonal vector of Q that resides in local machine k: iteration number; xi : the ith training instance M : machine index set, M = {0, 1, . . . , m ? 1} Ic : row-index set on machine c (c ? M ), Ic = {c, c + m, c + 2m, . . .} 1: for i = 0 to n ? 1 do 2: Load xi into machine imodulom. 3: end for 4: k ? 0; H ? 0; v ? the fraction of the diagonal vector of Q that resides in local machine. (v(i)(i ? Im ) can be obtained from xi ) 5: Initialize master to be machine 0. 6: while k < p do 7: Each machine c ? M selects its local pivot value, which is the largest element in v: lpvk,c = max v(i). i?Ic and records the local pivot index, the row index corresponds to lpvk,c : lpik,c = arg max v(i). i?Ic 8: 9: Gather lpvk,c ?s and lpik,c ?s (c ? M ) to master. The master selects the largest local pivot value as global pivot value gpvk and records in ik , row index corresponding to the global pivot value. gpvk = max lpvk,c . c?M 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: The master broadcasts gpvk and ik . Change master to machine ik %m. Calculate H(ik , k) according to (3) on master. The master broadcasts the pivot instance xik and the pivot row H(ik , :). (Only the first k + 1 values of the pivot row need to be broadcast, since the remainder are zeros.) Each machine c ? M calculates its part of the kth column of H according to (4). Each machine c ? M updates v according to (5). k ?k+1 end while ICF approximation (i.e. tr(Q ? HH T ) < ?). Experimental results in Section 3 show that when p is ? set to n, the error can be negligible. Our row-based parallel ICF (PICF) works as follows: Let vector v be the diagonal of Q and suppose the pivots (the largest diagonal values) are {i1 , i2 , . . . , ik }, the k th iteration of ICF computes three equations: p H(ik , k) = v(ik ) (3) H(Jk , k) = (Q(Jk , k) ? k?1 X H(Jk , j)H(ik , j))/H(ik , k) (4) j=1 v(Jk ) = v(Jk ) ? H(Jk , k)2 , (5) where Jk denotes the complement of {i1 , i2 , . . . , ik }. The algorithm iterates until the approximation of Q by Hk HkT (measured by trace(Q ? Hk HkT )) is satisfactory, or the predefined maximum iterations (or say, the desired rank of the ICF matrix) p is reached. As suggested by G. Golub, a parallelized ICF algorithm can be obtained by constraining the parallelized Cholesky Factorization algorithm, iterating at most p times. However, in the proposed algorithm (Golub & Loan, 1996), matrix H is distributed by columns in a round-robin way on m machines (hence we call it column-based parallelized ICF). Such column-based approach is optimal for the single-machine setting, but cannot gain full benefit from parallelization for two major reasons: 3 1. Large memory requirement. All training data are needed for each machine to calculate Q(Jk , k). Therefore, each machine must be able to store a local copy of the training data. 2. Limited parallelizable computation. Only the inner product calculation Pk?1 ( j=1 H(Jk , j)H(ik , j)) in (4) can be parallelized. The calculation of pivot selection, the summation of local inner product result, column calculation in (4), and the vector update in (5) must be performed on one single machine. To remedy these shortcomings of the column-based approach, we propose a row-based approach to parallelize ICF, which we summarize in Algorithm 1. Our row-based approach starts by initializing variables and loading training data onto m machines in a round-robin fashion (Steps 1 to 5). The algorithm then performs the ICF main loop until the termination criteria are satisfied (e.g., the rank of matrix H reaches p). In the main loop, PICF performs five tasks in each iteration k: ? Distributedly find a pivot, which is the largest value in the diagonal v of matrix Q (steps 7 to 10). Notice that PICF computes only needed elements in Q from training data, and it does not store Q. ? Set the machine where the pivot resides as the master (step 11). ? On the master, PICF calculates H(ik , k) according to (3) (step 12). ? The master then broadcasts the pivot instance xik and the pivot row H(ik , :) (step 13). ? Distributedly compute (4) and (5) (steps 14 and 15). At the end of the algorithm, H is stored distributedly on m machines, ready for parallel IPM (presented in the next section). PICF enjoys three advantages: parallel memory use (O(np/m)), parallel computation (O(p2 n/m)), and low communication overhead (O(p2 log(m))). Particularly on the communication overhead, its fraction of the entire computation time shrinks as the problem size grows. We will verify this in the experimental section. This pattern permits a larger problem to be solved on more machines to take advantage of parallel memory use and computation. 2.2 Parallel IPM As mentioned in Section 1, the most effective algorithm to solve a constrained QP problem is the primal-dual IPM. For detailed description and notations of IPM, please consult (Boyd, 2004; Mehrotra, 1992). For the purpose of SVM training, IPM boils down to solving the following equations in the Newton step iteratively. ? ? ?i 1 + diag( )4x (6) 4? = ?? + vec t(C ? ?i ) C ? ?i ? ? 1 ?i ? diag( )4x (7) 4? = ?? + vec t?i ?i yT ??1 z + yT ? yT ??1 y ?i ?i D = diag( + ) ?i C ? ?i 4x = ??1 (z ? y4?), 4? = where ? and z depend only on [?, ?, ?, ?] from the last iteration as follows: ?i ?i ? = Q + diag( + ) ?i C ? ?i 1 1 1 z = ?Q? + 1n ? ?y + vec( ? ). t ?i C ? ?i (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) The computation bottleneck is on matrix inverse, which takes place on ? for solving 4? in (8) and 4x in (10). Equation (11) shows that ? depends on Q, and we have shown that Q can be approximated through PICF by HH T . Therefore, the bottleneck of the Newton step can be sped up from O(n3 ) to O(p2 n), and be parallelized to O(p2 n/m). Distributed Data Loading To minimize both storage and communication cost, PIPM stores data distributedly as follows: 4 ? Distribute matrix data. H is distributedly stored at the end of PICF. ? Distribute n ? 1 vector data. All n ? 1 vectors are distributed in a round-robin fashion on m machines. These vectors are z, ?, ?, ?, ?z, ??, ??, and ??. ? Replicate global scalar data. Every machine caches a copy of global data including ?, t, n, and ??. Whenever a scalar is changed, a broadcast is required to maintain global consistency. Parallel Computation of 4? Rather than walking through all equations, we describe how PIPM solves (8), where ??1 appears twice. An interesting observation is that parallelizing ??1 z (or ??1 y) is simpler than parallelizing ??1 . Let us explain how parallelizing ??1 z works, and parallelizing ??1 y can follow suit. According to SMW (the Sherman-Morrison-Woodbury formula), we can write ??1 z as ??1 z = (D + Q)?1 z ? (D + HH T )?1 z = D?1 z ? D?1 H(I + H T D?1 H)?1 H T D?1 z = D?1 z ? D?1 H(GGT )?1 H T D?1 z. ??1 z can be computed in four steps: 1. Compute D?1 z. D can be derived from locally stored vectors, following (9). D?1 z is a n ? 1 vector, and can be computed locally on each of the m machines. 2. Compute t1 = H T D?1 z. Every machine stores some rows of H and their corresponding part of D?1 z. This step can be computed locally on each machine. The results are sent to the master (which can be a randomly picked machine for all PIPM iterations) to aggregate into t1 for the next step. 3. Compute (GGT )?1 t1 . This step is completed on the master, since it has all the required data. G can be obtained from H in a straightforward manner as shown in SMW. Computing t2 = (GGT )?1 t1 is equivalent to solving the linear equation system t1 = (GGT )t2 . PIPM first solves t1 = Gy0 , then y0 = GT t2. Once it has obtained y0 , PIPM can solve GT t2 = y0 to obtain t2 . The master then broadcasts t2 to all machines. 4. Compute D?1 Ht2 All machines have a copy of t2 , and can compute D?1 Ht2 locally to solve for ??1 z. Similarly, ??1 y can be computed at the same time. Once we have obtained both, we can solve ?? according to (8). 2.3 Computing b and Writing Back When the IPM iteration stops, we have the value of ? and hence the classification function f (x) = Ns X ?i yi k(si , x) + b i=1 Here Ns is the number of support vectors and si are support vectors. In order to complete this classification function, b must be computed. According to the SVM model, given a support vector s, we obtain one of the two results for f (s): f (s) = +1, if ys = +1, or f (s) = ?1, if ys = ?1. In practice, we can select M , say 1, 000, support vectors and compute the average of the bs in parallel using MapReduce (Dean & Ghemawat, 2004). 3 Experiments We conducted experiments on PSVM to evaluate its 1) class-prediction accuracy, 2) scalability on large datasets, and 3) overheads. The experiments were conducted on up to 500 machines in our data center. Not all machines are identically configured; however, each machine is configured with a CPU faster than 2GHz and memory larger than 4GBytes. 5 Table 1: Class-prediction Accuracy with Different p Settings. dataset svmguide1 mushrooms news20 Image CoverType RCV 3.1 samples (train/test) 3, 089/4, 000 7, 500/624 18, 000/1, 996 199, 957/84, 507 522, 910/58, 102 781, 265/23, 149 LIBSVM 0.9608 1 0.7835 0.849 0.9769 0.9575 p = n0.1 0.6563 0.9904 0.6949 0.7293 0.9764 0.8527 p = n0.2 0.9 0.9920 0.6949 0.7210 0.9762 0.8586 p = n0.3 0.917 1 0.6969 0.8041 0.9766 0.8616 p = n0.4 0.9495 1 0.7806 0.8121 0.9761 0.9065 p = n0.5 0.9593 1 0.7811 0.8258 0.9766 0.9264 Class-prediction Accuracy PSVM employs PICF to approximate an n ? n kernel matrix Q with an n ? p matrix H. This experiment evaluated how the choice of p affects class-prediction accuracy. We set p of PSVM to nt , where t ranges from 0.1 to 0.5 incremented by 0.1, and compared its class-prediction accuracy with that achieved by LIBSVM. The first two columns of Table 1 enumerate the datasets and their sizes with which we experimented. We use Gaussian kernel, and select the best C and ? for LIBSVM and PSVM, respectively. For CoverType and RCV, we loosed the terminate condition (set -e 1, default 0.001) and used shrink heuristics (set -h 0)?to make LIBSVM terminate within several days. The table shows that when t is set to 0.5 (or p = n), the class-prediction accuracy of PSVM approaches that of LIBSVM. We compared only with LIBSVM because it is arguably the best open-source SVM implementation in both accuracy and speed. Another possible candidate is CVM (Tsang et al., 2005). Our experimental result on the CoverType dataset outperforms the result reported by CVM on the same dataset in both accuracy and speed. Moreover, CVM?s training time has been shown unpredictable by (Loosli & Canu, 2006), since the training time is sensitive to the selection of stop criteria and hyper-parameters. For how we position PSVM with respect to other related work, please refer to our disclaimer in the end of Section 1. 3.2 Scalability For scalability experiments, we used three large datasets. Table 2 reports the speedup of PSVM on up to m = 500 machines. Since when a dataset size is large, a single machine cannot store the factorized matrix H in its local memory, we cannot obtain the running time of PSVM on one machine. We thus used 10 machines as the baseline to measure the speedup of using more than 10 machines. To quantify speedup, we made an assumption that the speedup of using 10 machines is 10, compared to using one machine. This assumption is reasonable for our experiments, since PSVM does enjoy linear speedup when the number of machines is up to 30. Table 2: Speedup (p is set to Machines 10 30 50 100 150 200 250 500 LIBSVM ? n); LIBSVM training time is reported on the last row for reference. Image (200k) Time (s) Speedup 1, 958 (9) 10? 572 (8) 34.2 473 (14) 41.4 330 (47) 59.4 274 (40) 71.4 294 (41) 66.7 397 (78) 49.4 814 (123) 24.1 4, 334 NA NA CoverType (500k) Time (s) Speedup 16, 818 (442) 10? 5, 591 (10) 30.1 3, 598 (60) 46.8 2, 082 (29) 80.8 1, 865 (93) 90.2 1, 416 (24) 118.7 1, 405 (115) 119.7 1, 655 (34) 101.6 28, 149 NA NA RCV (800k) Time (s) 45, 135 (1373) 12, 289 (98) 7, 695 (92) 4, 992 (34) 3, 313 (59) 3, 163 (69) 2, 719 (203) 2, 671 (193) 184, 199 NA Speedup 10? 36.7 58.7 90.4 136.3 142.7 166.0 169.0 NA We trained PSVM three times for each dataset-m combination. The speedup reported in the table is the average of three runs with standard deviation provided in brackets. The observed variance in speedup was caused by the variance of machine loads, as all machines were shared with other tasks 6 running on our data centers. We can observe in Table 2 that the larger is the dataset, the better is the speedup. Figures 1(a), (b) and (c) plot the speedup of Image, CoverType, and RCV, respectively. All datasets enjoy a linear speedup when the number of machines is moderate. For instance, PSVM achieves linear speedup on RCV when running on up to around 100 machines. PSVM scales well till around 250 machines. After that, adding more machines receives diminishing returns. This result led to our examination on the overheads of PSVM, presented next. (a) Image (200k) speedup (b) Covertype (500k) speedup (c) RCV (800k) speedup (d) Image (200k) overhead (e) Covertype (500k) overhead (f) RCV (800k) overhead (g) Image (200k) fraction (h) Covertype (500k) fraction (i) RCV (800k) fraction Figure 1: Speedup and Overheads of Three Datasets. 3.3 Overheads PSVM cannot achieve linear speedup when the number of machines continues to increase beyond a data-size-dependent threshold. This is expected due to communication and synchronization overheads. Communication time is incurred when message passing takes place between machines. Synchronization overhead is incurred when the master machine waits for task completion on the slowest machine. (The master could wait forever if a child machine fails. We have implemented a checkpoint scheme to deal with this issue.) The running time consists of three parts: computation (Comp), communication (Comm), and synchronization (Sync). Figures 1(d), (e) and (f) show how Comm and Sync overheads influence the speedup curves. In the figures, we draw on the top the computation only line (Comp), which approaches the linear speedup line. Computation speedup can become sublinear when adding machines beyond a threshold. This is because the computation bottleneck of the unparallelizable step 12 in Algorithm 1 (which computation time is O(p2 )). When m is small, this bottleneck is insignificant in the total computation time. According to the Amdahl?s law; however, even a small fraction of unparallelizable computation can cap speedup. Fortunately, the larger the dataset is, the smaller is this unparallelizable fraction, which is O(m/n). Therefore, more machines (larger m) can be employed for larger datasets (larger n) to gain speedup. 7 When communication overhead or synchronization overhead is accounted for (the Comp + Comm line and the Comp + Comm + Sync line), the speedup deteriorates. Between the two overheads, the synchronization overhead does not impact speedup as much as the communication overhead does. Figures 1(g), (h), and (i) present the percentage of Comp, Comm, and Sync in total running time. The synchronization overhead maintains about the same percentage when m increases, whereas the percentage of communication overhead grows with m. As mentioned in Section 2.1, the communication overhead is O(p2 log(m)), growing sub-linearly with m. But since the computation time per node decreases as m increases, the fraction of the communication overhead grows with m. Therefore, PSVM must select a proper m for a training task to maximize the benefit of parallelization. 4 Conclusion In this paper, we have shown how SVMs can be parallelized to achieve scalable performance. PSVM distributedly loads training data on parallel machines, reducing memory requirement through approximate factorization on the kernel matrix. PSVM solves IPM in parallel by cleverly arranging computation order. We have made PSVM open source at http://code.google.com/p/psvm/. Acknowledgement The first author is partially supported by NSF under Grant Number IIS-0535085. References Bach, F. R., & Jordan, M. I. (2005). Predictive low-rank decomposition for kernel methods. Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning. Boyd, S. (2004). Convex optimization. Cambridge University Press. Chang, C.-C., & Lin, C.-J. (2001). LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines. Software available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/ cjlin/libsvm. Chu, C.-T., Kim, S. K., Lin, Y.-A., Yu, Y., Bradski, G., Ng, A. Y., & Olukotun, K. (2006). Map reduce for machine learning on multicore. NIPS. Dean, J., & Ghemawat, S. (2004). Mapreduce: Simplified data processing on large clusters. OSDI?04: Symposium on Operating System Design and Implementation. Fine, S., & Scheinberg, K. (2001). Efficient svm training using low-rank kernel representations. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2, 243?264. Ghemawat, S., Gobioff, H., & Leung, S.-T. (2003). The google file system. 19th ACM Symposium on Operating Systems Principles. Golub, G. H., & Loan, C. F. V. (1996). Matrix computations. Johns Hopkins University Press. Graf, H. P., Cosatto, E., Bottou, L., Dourdanovic, I., & Vapnik, V. (2005). Parallel support vector machines: The cascade svm. In Advances in neural information processing systems 17, 521?528. Joachims, T. (1998). Making large-scale svm learning practical. Advances in Kernel Methods Support Vector Learning. Joachims, T. (2006). Training linear svms in linear time. ACM KDD, 217?226. Lee, Y.-J., & Mangasarian, O. L. (2001). Rsvm: Reduced support vector machines. First SIAM International Conference on Data Mining. Chicago. Loosli, G., & Canu, S. (2006). Comments on the core vector machines: Fast svm training on very large data sets (Technical Report). Mehrotra, S. (1992). On the implementation of a primal-dual interior point method. SIAM J. Optimization, 2. Platt, J. (1998). Sequential minimal optimization: A fast algorithm for training support vector machines (Technical Report MSR-TR-98-14). Microsoft Research. Tsang, I. W., Kwok, J. T., & Cheung, P.-M. (2005). Core vector machines: Fast svm training on very large data sets. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6, 363?392. Vapnik, V. (1995). The nature of statistical learning theory. New York: Springer. Vishwanathan, S., Smola, A. J., & Murty, M. N. (2003). Simplesvm. ICML. 8
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Predictive Matrix-Variate t Models Shenghuo Zhu Kai Yu Yihong Gong NEC Labs America, Inc. 10080 N. Wolfe Rd. SW3-350 Cupertino, CA 95014 {zsh,kyu,ygong}@sv.nec-labs.com Abstract It is becoming increasingly important to learn from a partially-observed random matrix and predict its missing elements. We assume that the entire matrix is a single sample drawn from a matrix-variate t distribution and suggest a matrixvariate t model (MVTM) to predict those missing elements. We show that MVTM generalizes a range of known probabilistic models, and automatically performs model selection to encourage sparse predictive models. Due to the non-conjugacy of its prior, it is difficult to make predictions by computing the mode or mean of the posterior distribution. We suggest an optimization method that sequentially minimizes a convex upper-bound of the log-likelihood, which is very efficient and scalable. The experiments on a toy data and EachMovie dataset show a good predictive accuracy of the model. 1 Introduction Matrix analysis techniques, e.g., singular value decomposition (SVD), have been widely used in various data analysis applications. An important class of applications is to predict missing elements given a partially observed random matrix. For example, putting ratings of users into a matrix form, the goal of collaborative filtering is to predict those unseen ratings in the matrix. To predict unobserved elements in matrices, the structures of the matrices play an importance role, for example, the similarity between columns and between rows. Such structures imply that elements in a random matrix are no longer independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.). Without the i.i.d. assumption, many machine learning models are not applicable. In this paper, we model the random matrix of interest as a single sample drawn from a matrixvariate t distribution, which is a generalization of Student-t distribution. We call the predictive model under such a prior by matrix-variate t model (MVTM). Our study shows several interesting properties of the model. First, it continues the line of gradual generalizations across several known probabilistic models on random matrices, namely, from probabilistic principle component analysis (PPCA) [11], to Gaussian process latent-variable models (GPLVMs)[7], and to multi-task Gaussian processes (MTGPs) [13]. MVTMs can be further derived by analytically marginalizing out the hyper-parameters of these models. From a Bayesian modeling point of view, the marginalization of hyper-parameters means an automatic model selection and usually leads to a better generalization performance [8]; Second, the model selection by MVTMs explicitly encourages simpler predictive models that have lower ranks. Unlike the direct rank minimization, the log-determinant terms in the form of matrix-variate t prior offers a continuous optimization surface (though non-convex) for rank constraint; Third, like multivariate Gaussian distributions, a matrix-variate t prior is consistent under marginalization, that means, if a matrix follows a matrix-variate t distribution, its any sub-matrix follows a matrix-variate t distribution as well. This property allows to generalize distributions for finite matrices to infinite stochastic processes. ? ? ? ? ? S ? ? R S I T T T T Y Y Y Y (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 1: Models for matrix prediction. (a) MVTM. (b) and (c) are two normal-inverse-Wishart models, equivalent to MVTM when the covariance variable S (or R) is marginalized. (d) MTGP, which requires to optimize the covariance variable S. Circle nodes represent for random variables, shaded nodes for (partially) observable variables, text nodes for given parameters. Under a Gaussian noise model, the matrix-variate t distribution is not a conjugate prior. It is thus difficult to make predictions by computing the mode or mean of the posterior distribution. We suggest an optimization method that sequentially minimizes a convex upper-bound of the log-likelihood, which is highly efficient and scalable. In the experiments, the algorithm shows very good efficiency and excellent prediction accuracy. This paper is organized as follows. We review three existing models and introduce the matrix-variate t models in Section 2. The prediction methods are proposed in Section 3. In Section 4, the MVTM is compared with some other models. We illustrate the MVTM with the experiments on a toy example and on the movie-rating data in Section 5. We conclude in Section 6. 2 Predictive Matrix-Variate t Models 2.1 A Family of Probabilistic Models for Matrix Data In this section we introduce three probabilistic models in the literature. Let Y be a p ? m observational matrix and T be the underlying p ? m noise-free random matrix. We assume Yi,j = Ti,j + i,j , i,j ? N (0, ? 2 ), where Yi,j denotes the (i, j)-th element of Y. If Y is partially observed, then YI denotes the set of observed elements and I is the corresponding index set. Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) [11] assumes that yj , the j-th column vector of Y, can be generated from a latent vector vj in a k-dimensional linear space (k < p). The model is defined as yj = Wvj + ? + j and vj ? Nk (vj ; 0, Ik ), where j ? Np (j ; 0, ? 2 Ip ), and W is a p ? k loading matrix. By integrating out vj , we obtain the marginal distribution yj ? Np (yj ; ?, WW> + ? 2 Ip ). Since the columns of Y are conditionally independent, letting S take the place of WW> , PPCA is similar1 to Yi,j = Ti,j + i,j , T ? Np,m (T; 0, S, Im ), where Np,m (?; 0, S, Im ) is a matrix-variate normal prior with zero mean, covariance S between rows, and identity covariance Im between columns. PPCA aims to estimate the parameter W by maximum likelihood. Gaussian Process Latent-Variable Model (GPLVM) [7] formulates a latent-variable model in a slightly unconventional way. It considers the same linear relationship from latent representation vj to observations yj . Instead of treating vj as random variables, GPLVM assigns a prior on W and see {vj } as parameters yj = Wvj + j , and W ? Np,k (W; 0, Ip , Ik ), where the elements of W are independent Gaussian random variables. By marginalizing out W, we obtain a distribution that each row of Y is an i.i.d. sample from a Gaussian process prior with the covariance VV> + ? 2 Im and V = [v1 , . . . , vm ]> . Letting R take the place of VV> , we rewrite a similar model as Yi,j = Ti,j + i,j , 1 T ? Np,m (T; 0, Ip , R). Because it requires S to be positive definite and W is usually low rank, they are not equivalent. From a matrix modeling point of view, GPLVM estimates the covariance between the rows and assume the columns to be conditionally independent. Multi-task Gaussian Process (MTGP) [13] is a multi-task learning model where each column of Y is a predictive function of one task, sampled from a Gaussian process prior, yj = tj + j , and tj ? Np (0, S), where j ? Np (0, ? 2 Ip ). It introduces a hierarchical model where an inverseWishart prior is added for the covariance, Yi,j = Ti,j + i,j , T ? Np,m (T; 0, S, Im ), S ? IW p (S; ?, Ip ) MTGP utilizes the inverse-Wishart prior as the regularization and obtains a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of S. 2.2 Matrix-Variate t Models The models introduced in the previous section are closely related to each other. PPCA models the row covariance of Y, GPLVM models the column covariance, and MTGP assigns a hyper prior to prevent over-fitting when estimating the (row) covariance. From a matrix modeling point of view, capturing the dependence structure of Y by its row or column covariance is a matter of choices, which are not fundamentally different.2 There is no reason to favor one choice over the other. By introducing the matrix-variate t models (MVTMs), they can be unified to be the same model. From a Bayesian modeling viewpoint, one should marginalize out as many variables as possible [8]. We thus extend the MTGP model in two directions: (1) assume T ? Np,m (T; 0, S, Im ) that have covariances on both sides of the matrix; (2) marginalize the covariance S on one side (see Figure 1(b)). Then we have a marginal distribution of T Z Pr(T) = Np,m (T; 0, S, Im )IW p (S; ?, Ip )dS = tp,m (T; ?, 0, Ip , Im ), (1) which is a matrix-variate t distribution. Because the inverse-Wishart distribution may have different degree-of-freedom definition in literature, we use the definition in [5]. Following the definition in [6], the matrix-variate t distribution of p ? m matrix T is given by def tp,m (T; ?, M, ?, ?) = ? ?+m+p?1 p m 1 2 |?|? 2 |?|? 2 Ip + ??1 (T ? M)??1 (T ? M)> , Z where ? is the degree of freedom; M is a p ? m matrix; ? and ? are positive definite matrices of mp size p ? p and m ? m, respectively; Z = (??) 2 ?p ( ?+p?1 )/?p ( ?+m+p?1 ); ?p (?) is a multivariate 2 2 gamma function, and | ? | stands for determinant. The model can be depicted as Figure 1(a). One important property of matrix-variate t distribution is that the marginal distribution of its sub-matrix still follows a matrix-variate t distribution with the same degree of freedom (see Section 3.1). Therefore, we can expand it to the infinite dimensional stochastic process. By Eq. (1), we can see that Figure 1(a) and Figure 1(b) describe two equivalent models. Comparing them with the MTGP model represented in Figure 1(d), we can see that the difference lies in whether S is point estimated or integrated out. Interestingly, the same matrix-variate t distribution can be equivalently derived by putting another hierarchical generative process on the covariance R, as described in Figure 1(c), where R follows an inverse-Wishart distribution. In other words, integrating the covariance on either side, we obtain the same model. This implies that the model controls the complexity of the covariances on both sides of the matrix. Neither PPCA nor GPLVM has such a property. The matrix-variate t distribution involves a determinant term of T, which becomes a log-determinant term in log-likelihood or KL-divergence. The log-determinant term encourages the sparsity of matrix T with lower rank. This property has been used as the heuristic for minimizing the rank of the matrix in [3]. Student?s t priors were applied to enforce sparse kernel machine [10]. Here we say a few words about the given parameters. Though we can use evidence framework[8] or other methods to estimate ?, the results are not good in many cases(see [4]). Usually we just set 2 GPLVM offers an advantage of using nonlinear covariance function based on attributes. ? to a small number. Similar to ?, the estimated ? 2 does not give us a good result either, but crossvalidation is a good choice. For the mean matrix M, in our experiments, we just use sample average for all observed elements. For some tasks, when we have prior knowledge about the covariance between columns or between rows, we can use the covariance matrices in the places of Im or Ip . 3 Prediction Methods When the evaluation of the prediction is the sum of individual losses, the optimal prediction is to find the individual mode of the marginal posterior distribution, i.e., arg maxTij Pr(Tij |YI ). However, there is no exact solution for the marginal posterior. We have two ways to approximate the optimal prediction. One way to make prediction is to compute the mode of the joint posterior distribution of T, i.e. the prediction problem is b = arg max {ln Pr(YI |T) + ln Pr(T)} . T (2) T The computation of this estimation is usually easy. We discuss it in Section 3.3. An alternative way is to use the individual mean of the posterior distribution to approximate the individual mode. Since the joint of individual mean happens to be the mean of the joint distribution, we only need to compute the joint posterior distribution. The problem of prediction by means is written as T = E(T|YI ). (3) However, it is usually difficult to compute the exact mean. One estimation method is the Monte Carlo method, which is computationally intensive. In Section 3.4, we discuss an approximation to compute the mean. From our experiments, the prediction by means usually outperforms the prediction by modes. Before discussing the prediction methods, we introduce a few useful properties in Section 3.1 and suggest an optimization method as the efficient tool for prediction in Section 3.2. 3.1 Properties The MVTM has a rich set of properties. We list a few in the following Theorem. Theorem 1. If q p  n m q ? ? Iq ? tp+q,m+n (?; ?, 0, ? T 0 p n 0 In , Ip 0 m 0 ), Im (4) then Pr(T) =tp,m (T; ?, 0, Ip , Im ), (5) > > Pr(T|?, ?, ?) =tp,m (T; ? + q + n, M, (Ip + ?B? ), (Im + ? A?)), Pr(?) =tq,n (?; ?, 0, Iq , In ), Pr(?|?) =tq,m (?; ? + n, 0, A?1 , Im ), ?1 Pr(?|?, ?) =tp,n (?; ? + q, 0, Ip , B ) = Pr(?|?), E(T|?, ?, ?) =M,     Cov vec T> |?, ?, ? =(? + q + n ? 2)?1 (Ip + ?B?> ) ? (Im + ?> A?), def def (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) def where A = (??> + Iq )?1 , B = (?> ? + In )?1 , and M = ??> A? = ?B?> ?. This theorem can be directly derived from Theorem 4.3.1 and 4.3.9 in [6] with a little calculus. It provides some insights about MVTMs. The marginal distribution in Eq. (5) has the same form as the joint distribution, therefore the matrix-variate t distribution is extensible to an infinite dimensional stochastic process. As conditional distribution in Eq. (6) is still a matrix-variate t distribution, we can use it to approximate the posterior distribution, which we use in Section 3.4. We encounter log-determinant terms in computation of the mode or mean estimation. The following theorem provides a quadratic upper bounds for the log-determinant terms, which makes it possible to apply the optimization method in Section 3.2. Lemma 1. If X is a p ? p positive definite matrices, it holds that ln |X| ? tr (X) ? p. The equality holds when X is an orthonormal matrix. P P Proof. Let {?1 , ? ? ? , ?p } be the eigenvalues of X. We have ln |X| = i ln ?i and tr (X) = i ?i . Since ln ?i ? ?i ? 1, we have the inequality. The equality holds when ?i = 1. Therefore, when X is an orthonormal matrix (especially X = Ip ), the equality holds. Theorem 2. If ? is a p ? p positive definite matrix, ? is an m ? m positive definite matrix, and T and T0 are p ? m matrices, it holds that ln |? + T??1 T> | ? h(T; T0 , ?, ?) + h0 (T0 , ?, ?), where   def ?1 > ?1 h(T; T0 , ?, ?) =tr (? + T0 ??1 T> ) T? T , 0   def ?1 > ?1 T0 ) ? ? p h0 (T0 , ?, ?) = ln |? + T0 ??1 T> 0 | + tr (? + T0 ? The equality holds when T = T0 . Also it holds that ? ? ?1 > ?1 ?1 h(T; T0 , ?, ?) ln |? + T? T | = 2(? + T0 ??1 T> ) T ? = . 0 0 ?T ?T T=T0 T=T0 ?1 Applying Lemma 1 with X = (? + T0 ??1 T> (? + T??1 T> ), we obtain the inequality. By 0) some calculus we have the equality of the first-order derivative. Actually h(?) is a quadratic convex ?1 function with respect to T, as (? + T0 ??1 T> and ??1 are positive definite matrices. 0) 3.2 Optimization Method Once the objective is given, the prediction becomes an optimization problem. We use an EMstyle optimization method to make the prediction. Suppose J (T) be the objective function to be minimized. If we can find an auxiliary function, Q(T; T0 ), having the following properties, we can apply this method. 1. J (T) ? Q(T; T0 ) and J (T0 ) = Q(T0 ; T0 ), 0 2. ?J (T)/?T| 0 = ?Q(T; T )/?T 0 , T=T 0 T=T 0 3. For a fixed T , Q(T; T ) is quadratic and convex with respect to T. Starting from any T0 , as long as we can find a T1 such that Q(T1 , T0 ) < Q(T0 , T0 ), we have J (T0 ) = Q(T0 , T0 ) > Q(T1 , T0 ) ? J (T1 ). If there exists a global minimum point of J (T), there exists a global minimum point of Q(T; T0 ) as well, because Q(T; T0 ) is upper bound of J (T). Since Q(T; T0 ) is quadratic with the respect to T, we can apply the Newton-Raphson method to minimize Q(T; T0 ). As long as T0 is not a local minimum, maximum or saddle point of J , we can find a T to reduce Q(T; T0 ), because Q(T; T0 ) has the same derivative as J (T) at T0 . Usually, a random starting point, T0 is unlikely to be a local maximum, then T1 can not be a local maximum. If T0 is a local maximum, we can reselect a point, which is not. After we find a Ti , we repeat the procedure to find a Ti+1 so that J (Ti+1 ) < J (Ti ), unless Ti is a local minimum or saddle point of J . Repeating this procedure, Ti converges a local minimum or saddle point of J , as long as T0 is not a local maximum. 3.3 Mode Prediction Following Eq. (2), the goal is to minimize the objective function ?+m+p?1 def ln Ip + TT> , Jb(T) = `(T) + 2 (12) def where `(T) = ? ln Pr(YI ) = 1 2? 2 P (i,j)?I (Tij ? Yij )2 + const. As Jb contains a log-determinant term, minimizing Jb by nonlinear optimization is slow. Here, we introduce an auxiliary function, def Q(T; T0 ) = `(T) + h(T; T0 , Ip , Im ) + h0 (T0 , Ip , Im ). (13) 0 0 0 0 0 By Corollary 2, we have that Jb(T) ? Q(T; T ), Jb(T ) = Q(T , T ), and Q(T, T ) has the same first-order derivative as Jb(T) at T0 . Because l and h are quadratic and convex, Q is quadratic and convex as well. Therefore, we can apply the optimization method in Section 3.2 to minimize Jb. b is still time consuming and requires a very large However, when the size of T is large, to find T b Therefore, we consider a low space. In many tasks, we only need to infer a small portion of T. > rank approximation, using UV to approximate T, where U is a p ? k matrix and V is an m ? k matrix. The problem of Eq. (2) is approximated by arg minU,V Jb(UV> ). We can minimize J1 by b ? USV> , alternatively optimizing U and V. We can put the final result in a canonical format as T where U and V are semi-orthonormal and S is a k ? k diagonal matrix. This result can be consider as the SVD of an incomplete matrix using matrix-variate t regularization. The details are skipped because of the limit space. 3.4 Variational Mean Prediction As the difficulty in explicitly computing the posterior distribution of T, we take a variational approach to approximate its posterior distribution by a matrix-variate t distribution via an expanded model. We expand the model by adding matrix variate ?, ? and ? with distribution as Eq. (4). Since the marginal distribution, Eq. (5), is the same as the prior of T, we can derive the original model by marginalizing out ?, ? and ?. However, instead of integrating out ?, ? and ?, we use them as the parameters to approximate T?s posterior distribution. Therefore, the estimation of the parameters is to minimize Z ? ln Pr(YI , ?, ?, ?) = ? ln Pr(?, ?, ?) ? ln Pr(T|?, ?, ?) Pr(YI |T)dT (14) over ?, ? and ?. The first term in the RHS of Eq. (14) can be written as ? ln Pr(?, ?, ?) = ? ln Pr(?) ? ln Pr(?|?) ? ln Pr(?|?, ?) = ?+q+n+p+m?1 2 ln |Iq + ??> | + ?+q+n+m?1 2 ln |Im + ?> A?| (15) ?+q+n+p?1 ln |Ip + ?B?> | + const. 2 Due to the convexity of negative logarithm, the second term in the RHS of Eq. (14) is bounded by X 1 1 1 `(?B 2 ?> A 2 ?) + 2 (16) (1 + [?B?> ]ii )(1 + [?> A?]jj ) + const. + 2? (?+q+n?2) (i,j)?I because ? ln Pr(YI |T) is quadratic respective to T, thus we only need integration using the mean and variance of Tij of Pr(T|?, ?, ?), which is given by Eq. (10) and (11). The parameter estimation not only reduce the loss (the term of `(?)), but also reduce the variance. Because of this, the prediction by means usually outperforms the prediction by modes. Let J be the sum of the right-hand-side of Eq. (15) and (16), which can be considered as the upper bound of Eq. (14) (ignoring constants). Here, we estimate the parameters by minimizing J . Because A and B involve the inverse of quadratic term of ?, it is awkward to directly optimize ?, ?, ?. def def def We reparameterize J by U = ?B1/2 , V = ?> A1/2 , and S = ?. We can easily apply the optimization method in Section 3.2 to find optimal U, V and S. After estimation U, V and S, by Theorem 1, we can compute T = M = USV> . The details are skipped because of the limit space. 4 Related work Maximum Margin Matrix Factorization (MMMF) [9] is not in the framework of stochastic matrix analysis, but there are some similarities between MMMF and our mode estimation in Section 3.3. Using trace norm on the matrix as regularization, MMMF overcomes the over-fitting problem in factorizing matrix with missing values. From the regularization viewpoint, the prediction by mode of MVTM uses log-determinants as the regularization term in Eq. (12). The log-determinants encourage sparsity predictive models. Stochastic Relational Models (SRMs) [12] extend MTGPs by estimating the covariance matrices for each side. The covariance functions are required to be estimated from observation. By maximizing marginalized likelihood, the estimated S and R reflect the information of the dependency structure. Then the relationship can be predicted with S and R. During estimating S and R, inverseWishart priors with parameter ? and ? are imposed to S and R respectively. MVTM differs from SRM in integrating out the hyper-parameters or maximizing out. As MacKay suggests [8], ?one should integrate over as many variables as possible?. Robust Probabilistic Projections (RPP)[1] uses Student-t distribution to extends PPCA by scaling each feature vector by an independent random variable. Written in a matrix format, RPP is ? ? T ? Np,m (T; ?1> , WW> , U), U = diag {ui } , ui ? IG(ui | , ), 2 2 where IG is inverse Gamma distribution. Though RPP unties the scale factors between feature vectors, which could make the estimation more robust, it does not integrate out the covariance matrix, which we did in MVTM. Moreover inherited from PPCA, RPP implicitly uses independence assumption of feature vectors. Also RPP results different models depending on which side we assume to be independent, therefore it is not suitable for matrix prediction. 5 Experiments 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 30 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 (a) Original Matrix 25 30 20 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 30 20 2 (b) With Noise (0.32) 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 (c) MMMF (0.27) 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 30 30 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 (e) SRM (0.22) 18 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 18 20 (d) PPCA (0.26) 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 (f) MVTM mode (0.20) (g) MVTM mean (0.192) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 (h) MCMC (0.185) Figure 2: Experiments on synthetic data. RMSEs are shown in parentheses. singular values Synthetic data: We generate a 30 ? 20 matrix (Fig4 MMMF 3.5 ure 2(a)), then add noise with ? 2 = 0.1 (Figure 2(b)). The MVTM-mode 3 root mean squared noise is 0.32. We select 70% elements MVTM-mean 2.5 as the observed data and the rest elements are for predic2 tion. We apply MMMF [9], PPCA[11], MTGP[13], SRM 1.5 [12], our MVTM prediction-by-means and prediction1 by-modes methods. The number of dimensions for low 0.5 rank approximation is 10. We also apply MCMC method 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 to infer the matrix. The reconstruction matrix and root index mean squared errors of prediction on the unobserved elements (comparing to the original matrix) are shown in Figure 3: Singular values of recovered Figure 2(c)-2(g), respectively. MTGP has the similar re- matrices in descent order. sult as PPCA, we do not show the result. MVTM is in favor of sparse predictive models. To verify this, we depict the singular values of the MMMF method and two MVTM prediction methods in Figure 3. There are only two singular RMSE MAE user mean 1.425 1.141 movie mean 1.387 1.103 MMMF 1.186 0.943 PPCA 1.165 0.915 MVTM (mode) 1.162 0.898 MVTM (mean) 1.151 0.887 Table 1: RMSE (root mean squred error) and MAE (mean absolute error) of experiments on Eachmovie data. All standard errors are 0.001 or less. values of the MVTM prediction-by-means method are non-zeros. The singular values of the mode estimation decrease faster than the MMMF ones at beginning, but decrease slower after a threshold. This confirms that the log-determinants automatically determine the intrinsic rank of the matrices. Eachmovie data: We test our algorithms on Eachmovie from [2]. The dataset contains 74, 424 users? 2, 811, 718 ratings on 1, 648 movies, i.e. about 2.29% are rated by zero-to-five stars. We put all ratings into a matrix, and randomly select 80% as observed data to predict the remaining ratings. The random selection was carried out 10 times independently. We compare our approach with other three approaches: 1) USER MEAN predicting rating by the sample mean of the same user? ratings; 2) MOVIE MEAN, predicting rating by the sample mean of users? ratings of the same movie; 3) MMMF[9]; 4) PPCA[11]. We do not have a scalable implementation for other approaches compared in the previous experiment. The number of dimensions is 10. The results are shown in Table 1. Two MVTM prediction methods outperform the other methods. 6 Conclusions In this paper we introduce matrix-variate t models for matrix prediction. The entire matrix is modeled as a sample drawn from a matrix-variate t distribution. An MVTM does not require the independence assumption over elements. The implicit model selection of the MVTM encourages sparse models with lower ranks. To minimize the log-likelihood with log-determinant terms, we propose an optimization method by sequentially minimizing its convex quadratic upper bound. The experiments show that the approach is accurate, efficient and scalable. References [1] C. Archambeau, N. Delannay, and M. Verleysen. Robust probabilistic projections. In ICML, 2006. [2] J. Breese, D. Heckerman, and C. Kadie. Empirical analysis of predictive algorithms for collaborative filtering. In UAI-98, pages 43?52, 1998. [3] M. Fazel, H. Haitham, and S. P. Boyd. Log-det heuristic for matrix rank minimization with applications to hankel and euclidean distance matrices. In Proceedings of the American Control Conference, 2003. [4] C. Fernandez and M. F. J. Steel. Multivariate Student-t regression models: Pitfalls and inference. Biometrika, 86(1):153?167, 1999. [5] A. Gelman, J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D. B. Rubin. Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York, 2nd edition, 2004. [6] A. K. Gupta and D. K. Nagar. Matrix Variate Distributions. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2000. [7] N. Lawrence. Probabilistic non-linear principal component analysis with gaussian process latent variable models. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 6:1783?1816, 2005. [8] D. J. C. MacKay. Comparison of approximate methods for handling hyperparameters. Neural Comput., 11(5):1035?1068, 1999. [9] J. D. M. Rennie and N. Srebro. Fast maximum margin matrix factorization for collaborative prediction. In ICML, 2005. [10] M. E. Tipping. Sparse bayesian learning and the relevance vector machine. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 1:211?244, 2001. [11] M. E. Tipping and C. M. Bishop. Probabilistic principal component analysis. Journal of the Royal Statisitical Scoiety, B(61):611?622, 1999. [12] K. Yu, W. Chu, S. Yu, V. Tresp, and Z. Xu. Stochastic relational models for discriminative link prediction. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19 (NIPS), 2006. [13] K. Yu, V. Tresp, and A. Schwaighofer. Learning Gaussian processes from multiple tasks. In ICML, 2005.
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Modelling motion primitives and their timing in biologically executed movements Ben H Williams School of Informatics University of Edinburgh 5 Forrest Hill, EH1 2QL, UK [email protected] Marc Toussaint TU Berlin Franklinstr. 28/29, FR 6-9 10587 Berlin, Germany [email protected] Amos J Storkey School of Informatics University of Edinburgh 5 Forrest Hill, EH1 2QL, UK [email protected] Abstract Biological movement is built up of sub-blocks or motion primitives. Such primitives provide a compact representation of movement which is also desirable in robotic control applications. We analyse handwriting data to gain a better understanding of primitives and their timings in biological movements. Inference of the shape and the timing of primitives can be done using a factorial HMM based model, allowing the handwriting to be represented in primitive timing space. This representation provides a distribution of spikes corresponding to the primitive activations, which can also be modelled using HMM architectures. We show how the coupling of the low level primitive model, and the higher level timing model during inference can produce good reconstructions of handwriting, with shared primitives for all characters modelled. This coupled model also captures the variance profile of the dataset which is accounted for by spike timing jitter. The timing code provides a compact representation of the movement while generating a movement without an explicit timing model produces a scribbling style of output. 1 Introduction Movement planning and control is a very difficult problem in real-world applications. Current robots have very good sensors and actuators, allowing accurate movement execution, however the ability to organise complex sequences of movement is still far superior in biological organisms, despite being encumbered with noisy sensory feedback, and requiring control of many non-linear and variable muscles. The underlying question is that of the representation used to generate biological movement. There is much evidence to suggest that biological movement generation is based upon motor primitives, with discrete muscle synergies found in frog spines, (Bizzi et al., 1995; d?Avella & Bizzi, 2005; d?Avella et al., 2003; Bizzi et al., 2002), evidence of primitives being locally fixed (Kargo & Giszter, 2000), and modularity in human motor learning and adaption (Wolpert et al., 2001; Wolpert & Kawato, 1998). Compact forms of representation for any biologically produced data should therefore also be based upon primitive sub-blocks. 1 (A) (B) ?m Figure 1: (A) A factorial HMM of a handwriting trajectory Yt . The parameters ? t indicate the probability of triggering a primitive in the mth factor at time t and are learnt for one specific character. (B) A hierarchical generative model of handwriting where the random variable c indicates the currently written character and defines a distribution over random variables ?m t via a Markov model over Gm . There are several approaches to use this idea of motion primitives for more efficient robotic movement control. (Ijspeert et al., 2003; Schaal et al., 2004) use non-linear attractor dynamics as a motion primitive and train them to generate motion that solves a specific task. (Amit & Matari?c, 2002) use a single attractor system and generate non-linear motion by modulating the attractor point. These approaches define a primitive as a segment of movement rather than understanding movement as a superposition of concurrent primitives. The goal of analysing and better understanding biological data is to extract a generative model of complex movement based on concurrent primitives which may serve as an efficient representation for robotic movement control. This is in contrast to previous studies of handwriting which usually focus on the problem of character classification rather than generation (Singer & Tishby, 1994; Hinton & Nair, 2005). We investigate handwriting data and analyse whether it can be modelled as a superposition of sparsely activated motion primitives. The approach we take can intuitively be compared to a Piano Model (also called Piano roll model (Cemgil et al., 2006)). Just as piano music can (approximately) be modelled as a superposition of the sounds emitted by each key we follow the idea that biological movement is a superposition of pre-learnt motion primitives. This implies that the whole movement can be compactly represented by the timing of each primitive in analogy to a score of music. We formulate a probabilistic generative model that reflects these assumptions. On the lower level a factorial Hidden Markov Model (fHMM, Ghahramani & Jordan, 1997) is used to model the output as a combination of signals emitted from independent primitives (each primitives corresponds to a factor in the fHMM). On the higher level we formulate a model for the primitive timing dependent upon character class. The same motion primitives are shared across characters, only their timings differ. We train this model on handwriting data using an EM-algorithm and thereby infer the primitives and the primitive timings inherent in this data. We find that the inferred timing posterior for a specific character is indeed a compact representation for the specific character which allows for a good reproduction of this character using the learnt primitives. Further, using the timing model learnt on the higher level we can generate new movement ? new samples of characters (in the same writing style as the data), and also scribblings that exhibit local similarity to written characters when the higher level timing control is omitted. Section 2 will introduce the probabilistic generative model we propose. Section 3 briefly describes the learning procedures which are variants of the EM-algorithm adapted to our model. Finally in section 4 we present results on handwriting data recorded with a digitisation tablet, show the primitives and timing code we extract, and demonstrate how the learnt model can be used to generate new samples of characters. 2 2 Model Our analysis of primitives and primitive timings in handwriting is based on formulating a corresponding probabilistic generative model. This model can be described on two levels. On the lower level (Figure 1(A)) we consider a factorial Hidden Markov Model (fHMM) where each factor produces the signal of a single primitive and the linear combination of factors generates the observed movement Yt . This level is introduced in the next section and was already considered in (Williams et al., 2006; Williams et al., 2007). It allows the learning and identification of primitives in the data but does not include a model of their timing. In this paper we introduce the full generative model (Figure 1(B)) which includes a generative model for the primitive timing conditioned on the current character. 2.1 Modelling primitives in data Let M be the number of primitives we allow for. We describe a primitive as a strongly constrained Markov process which remains in a zero state most of the time but with some ? ? [0, 1] enters the 1 state and then rigorously runs through all states 2, .., K probability ? before it enters the zero state again. While running though its states, this process emits a fixed temporal signal. More rigorously, we have a fHMM composed of M factors. The state of the mth factor at time t is Stm ? {0, .., Km}, and the transition probabilities are ? ?m ?t for a = 0 and b = 1 ? ? m ? 1 ? ? for a = 0 and b = 0 m t ?m) = . (1) = a, ? P (Stm = b | St?1 t 1 for a 6= 0 and b = (a + 1) mod Km ? ? 0 otherwise ? m of the mth primitive at time t. This process is parameterised by the onset probability ? t The M factors emit signals which are combined to produce the observed motion trajectory Yt according to M X P (Yt | St1:M ) = N (Yt , WSmtm , C) , (2) m=1 where N (x, a, A) is the Gaussian density function over x with mean a and covariance matrix A. This emission is parameterised by Wsm which is constrained to W0m = 0 (the zero state does not contribute to the observed signal), and C is a stationary output covariance. m m ) is what we call a primitive and ? to stay in the analogy = (W1m , .., WK The vector W1:K m m ? m ? [0, 1] could be ? can be compared to the sound of a piano key. The parameters ? t compared to the score of the music. We will describe below how we learn the primitives Wsm and also adapt the primitive lengths Km using an EM-algorithm. 2.2 A timing model ? to be fixed parameters is not a suitable model of biological movement. Considering the ??s The usage and timing of primitives depends on the character that is written and the timing ? actually provide a rather high-dimensional varies from character to character. Also, the ??s representation for the movement. Our model takes a different approach to parameterise the primitive activations. For instance, if a primitive is activated twice in the course of the movement we assume that there have been two signals (?spikes?) emitted from a higher level process which encode the activation times. More formally, let c be a discrete random variable indicating the character to be written, see Figure 1(B). We assume that for each primitive we have another Markovian process which generates a length-L sequence of states Gm l ? {1, .., R, 0}, m P (Gm 1:L | c) = P (G1 | c) L Y m P (Gm l | Gl?1 , c) . (3) l=2 The states Gm l encode which primitives are activated and how they are timed, as seen in Figure 2(b). We now define ?m t to be a binary random variable that indicate the activation 3 Training sample number 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 ?1 0.1 0.2 0.3 ?2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 ?3 0.8 Time /ms (a) (b) Figure 2: (a) Illustration of equation (4): The Markov process on the states Gm l emits Gaussian components to the onset probabilities P (?m t = 1). (b) Scatter plot of the MAP onsets of a single primitive for different samples of the same character ?p?. Gaussian components can be fit to each cluster. of a primitive at time t, which we call a ?spike?. For a zero-state Gm l = 0 no spike is emitted and thus the probability of ?m = 1 is not increased. A non-zero state Gm l = r adds a Gaussian component to the probabilities of ?m t = 1 centred around a typical spike time m ?m r and with variance ?r , Z t+0.5 L X m m m >0 = 1 | G , c) = ? N (t, ?m , ?G (4) P (?m m ) dt . G 1:Km Gm t l l l t?0.5 l=1 Here, ?Gm is zero for Gm l = 0 and 1 otherwise, and the integral essentially discretises the l >0 Gaussian density. Additionally, we restrict the Markovian process such that each Gaussian m component can emit at most one spike, i.e., we constrain P (Gm l | Gl?1 , c) to be a lower triangular matrix. Given the ??s, the state transitions in the fHMM factors are as in equation ? by ?. (1), replacing ? To summarise, the spike probabilities of ?m t = 1 are a sum of at most L Gaussian components m centred around the means ?m l and with variances ?l . Whether or not such a Gaussian component is present is itself randomised and depends on the states Gm l . We can observe at most L spikes in one primitive, the spike times between different primitives are dependent, but we have a Markovian dependency between the presence and timing of spikes within a primitive. The whole process is parameterised by the initial state distribution P (Gm 1 | c), m m m the transition probabilities P (Gm l | Gl?1 , c), the spike means ?r and the variances ?r . All these parameters will be learnt using an EM-algorithm. This timing model is motivated from results with the fHMM-only model: When training the fHMM on data of a single character and then computing the MAP spike times using a Viterbi alignment for each data sample we find that the MAP spike times are roughly Gaussian distributed around a number of means (see Figure 2(b)). This is why we used a sum of Gaussian components to define the onset probabilities P (? = 1). However, the data is more complicated than provided for by a simple Mixture of Gaussians. Not every sample includes an activation for each cluster (which is a source of variation in the handwriting) and there cannot be more than one spike in each cluster. Therefore we introduced the constrained Markov process on the states Gm l which may skip the emission of some spikes. 3 Inference and learning In the experiments we will compare both the fHMM without the timing model (Figure 1(A)) and the full model including the timing model (Figure 1(B)). In the fHMM-only model, inference in the fHMM is done using variational inference as described in (Ghahramani & Jordan, 1997). Using a standard EM-algorithm we can train ? To prevent overfitting we assume the spike probabilities the parameters W , C and ?. 4 10 2 6 5 4 ?2 ?4 ?10 ?9 ?6 ?3 ?9 ?5 ?0.5 ?10 0 0.20.4 1 (a) ?4 ?2 0 2 Distance /mm 0 0 0 1 2 3 ?4.5 ?1 0.25 0 ?0.25 ?0.5 0.25 ?0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 Time /s ?0.5 2.5 ?0.25 0 0.5 0 ?14 1 0 0 ?5 ?8 ?12 2 ?8 ?6 ?10 3 ?2 ?4 Distance /mm ?2 7 0 ?0.25 ?0.5 4 0 0.2 0.4 0 ?0.25 ?0.5 ?0.75 0 0.20.4 ?0.2 0 ?3 ?7 ?1 ?8 ?2 ?3 ?0.1 ?0.5 ?0.2 Distance /mm ?0.2?0.1 ?4 ?3 ?8 ?7 ?4 ?7 ?4 ?5 ?4 ?10 ?5 ?12.5 ?15 ?8 ?3 ?8 ?3 ?17.5 ?0.3 ?0.2 0 ?3 ?4 ?2 ?8?7 ?4 ?9 ?3 ?3 ?7 ?7.5 ?4 ?5 0 ?0.25 ?8 ?4 ?3 ?7 ?1 ?5 ?5 ?8 ?1 ?7 ?1 ?5 ?3 ?4 ?2.5 0 ?0.25 ?0.5 ?0.75 ?10 Distance /mm Primitive number 8 ?2 ?7 ?5 ?4 ?9 ?2 ?1 ?8 5 0.5 ?5 Distance /mm ?7 ?6 ?8 ?1 0 ?7 ?2?8 ?1 ?5 0 0 9 ?7 0 (b) ?5 ?2.5 0 2.5 5 Distance /mm (c) Figure 3: (a) Reconstruction of a character from a training dataset, using a subset of the primitives. The thickness of the reconstruction represents the pressure of the pen tip, and the different colours represent the activity of the different primitives, the onsets of which are labelled with an arrow. The posterior probability of primitive onset is shown on the left, highlighting why a spike timing representation is appropriate. (b) Plots of the 10 extracted primitives, as drawn on paper. (c) Generative samples using a flat primitive onset prior, showing scribbling behaviour of uncoupled model. ? m for each are stationary (?m t constant over t) and learn only a single mean parameter ? primitive. In the full model, inference is an iterative process of inference in the timing model and inference in the fHMM. Note that variational inference in the fHMM is itself an iterative process which recomputes the posteriors over Stm after adapting the variational parameters. We couple this iteration to inference in the timing model in both directions: In each iteration, the posterior over Stm defines observation likelihoods for inference in the Markov models Gm l . m Inversely, the resulting posterior over Gm l defines a new prior over ??s (a message from Gl to ?m t ) which enter the fHMM inference in the next iteration. Standard M-steps are then used to train all parameters of the fHMM and the timing model. In addition, we use heuristics to adapt the length Km of each primitive: we increase or decrease Km depending on whether the learnt primitive is significantly different to zero in the last time steps. The number of parameters used in the model therefore varies during learning, as the size of W depends upon Km , and the size of G depends upon the number of inferred spikes. In the experiments we will also investigate the reconstruction of data. By this we mean that we take a trained model, use inference to compute the MAP spikes ? for a specific data sample, then we use these ??s and the definition of our generative model (including the learnt primitives W ) to generate a trajectory which can be compared to the original data sample. Such a reconstruction can be computed using both the fHMM-only model and the full model. 4 4.1 Results Primitive and timing analysis using the fHMM-only We first consider a data set of 300 handwritten ?p?s recorded using an INTUOS 3 WACOM digitisation tablet http://www.wacom.com/productinfo/9x12.cfm, providing trajectory data at 200Hz. The trajectory Yt we model is the normalised first differential of the data, so that the data mean was close to zero, providing the requirements for the zero state assumption in the model constraints. Three dimensional data was used, x-position, y-position, and pressure. The data collected were separated into samples, or characters, allowing each sample to be separately normalised. Our choice of parameter was M = 10 primitives and we initialised all Km = 20 and constrained them to be smaller than 100 throughout learning. We trained the fHMM-only model on this dataset. Figure 3(a) shows the reconstruction of a specific sample of this data set and the corresponding posterior over ??s. This clean posterior is the motivation for introducing a model of the spike timings as a compact representation 5 ?15 ?20 ?25 ?30 ?35 ?40 ?45 ?50 4 2 ?20 ?10 0 Distance /mm (a) 10 0 x 10 x position y position pressure 1.8 1.6 ?10 Distance /mm Distance /mm ?10 ?10 ?8 ?4 ?7 ?7 ?10 ?4 ?2 ?8 ?9 ?3 ?1 ?7 ?1 ?8 ?10 ?4 ?7 ?3 ?1 ?1 ?7 ?9 ?4 ?3 ?2 ?3 ?1 ?4 ?1?4 ?8 ?6 ?4 ?1 ?4 ?6 ?10 ?2 ?9 ?8 ?6 ?6 ?8 ?3 ?8 ?10 ?6 ?2 ?3 ?4 ?5 ?7 ?6 ?9 ?2?9 ?7 ?3 ?3 ?3 ?2 ?10 ?5 ?9 ?10 ?6 ?10 ?10 ?10 ?9 ?7 ?7 ?6 ?10 ?2 ?4 ?4 ?6 ?6 ?7 ?7 ?3 ?10 ?3 ?6 ?10 ?3 ?6 ?4 ?2 ?5 ?6 ?10 ?10 ?5 ?2 ?7 ?5 ?5 ?3 ?7 ?3 ?4 ?4 ?4 ?10 ?7 ?9 ?10 ?4 ?9 ?10 ?4 ?9 ?10 ?6 ?4 ?3 ?10 ?8 ?3 ?6 ?8 ?4 ?2 ?3 ?1 ?9 ?8?4?4 ?10 ?8 ?1 ?6 ?1 ?7 ?10 ?3 ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 ?10 ?4 ?1 ?9 ?4 ?2 ?1 ?2 ?1 ?10 ?4 ?4 ?2 ?8 ?3 ?2 ?4 ?7?6 ?10?7 ?6 ?4 ?9 ?3 ?9 ?8?8 ?2 ?4 ?2 ?3 ?8 ?7 ?8 ?10 ?3 ?8 ?3 ?9 ?7 ?3 ?10 ?2 ?7 ?10 ?5 ?7 ?5 ?6 ?5 ?9 ?8 ?8 ?4 ?10 ?5 ?7 ?7 ?10 ?7 ?10 ?6 ?10 ?3 ?10 ?9 ?8 ?7 ?6 ?5 ?5 ?5 ?4 ?10 ?3 ?3 ?10 ?7?7 ?6 ?4 ?3 ?8 ?10 ?6 ?6 ?10 ?7 ?2 ?3 ?10 ?6 ?4 ?6 ?4 ?4 ?3 ?4 ?10 ?4 ?10 ?10 ?7 ?10 ?9 ?7 ?9 ?3 ?9 ?3 ?7 ?1 ?4 ?4 ?1 ?9 ?8 ?3 ?1 ?10 ?7 ?2 ?3 ?2 ?3 ?2 ?8 ?4 ?4 ?7 ?8 ?10 ?8 ?10 ?10 ?1 ?10 ?3 ?3 ?1 ?2 ?3 ?6 ?1 ?3 ?7 ?9 ?3 ?2 ?9 ?8 ?4 ?7 ?6 ?6?7 ?4 ?2 ?4 ?10 ?2 ?3?2 ?4?2 ?9 ?2 ?10 ?4 ?3 ?10 ?2 ?4 ?6 ?7 ?8 ?10 ?3 ?10 ?10 ?2 ?5 ?3 ?10 ?5 ?5 ?5 ?6 ?5 ?5 ?6 ?10 ?6 ?3 ?4 ?7 ?3 ?10 ?6 ?6 ?9 ?10 ?10 ?7 ?10 ?3 ?3 ?4 ?6 ?7 ?3 ?4 ?7 ?10 ?8 ?4 ?4 ?8 ?7 ?9 ?5 ?3 Number of samples 0 ?5 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 ?20 ?30 ?40 0.6 0.4 ?50 0.2 0 ?800 ?600 ?400 ?200 0 200 400 Velocity error /pixels /sec (b) 600 800 ?10 0 10 20 30 Distance /mm (c) Figure 4: (a) Reconstructions of ?p?s using the full model. (b) Histogram of the reconstruction error, which is 3-dimensional pen movement velocity space. These errors were produced using over 300 samples of a single character. (c) Generative samples using the full generative model (Figure 1(B)). of the data. Equally the reconstruction (using the Viterbi aligned MAP spikes) shows the sufficiency of the spike code to generate the character. Figure 3(b) shows the primitives W m (translated back into pen-space) that were learnt and implicitly used for the reconstruction of the ?p?. These primitives can be seen to represent typical parts of the ?p? character; the arrows in the reconstruction indicate when they are activated. The fHMM-only model can be used to reconstruct a specific data sample using the MAP ??s of that sample, but it can not ?autonomously? produce characters since it lacks a model of the timing. To show the importance of this spike timing information, we can demonstrate the effects of removing it. When using the fHMM-only model as a generative model with ?m the result is a form of primitive babbling, as can the learnt stationary spike probabilities ? be seen in Figure 3(c). Since these scribblings are generated by random expression of the learnt primitives they locally resemble parts of the ?p? character. The primitives generalise to other characters if the training dataset contained sufficient variation. Further investigation has shown that 20 primitives learnt from 12 character types are sufficiently generalised to represent all remaining novel character types without further learning, by using a single E-step to fit the pre-learnt parameters to a novel dataset. 4.2 Generating new characters using the full generative model Next we trained the full model on the same ?p?-dataset. Figure 4(a) shows the reconstructions of some samples of the data set. To the right we see the reconstruction errors in velocity space showing at many time points a perfect reconstruction was attained. Since the full model includes a timing model it can also be run autonomously as a generative model for new character samples. Figure 4(c) displays such new samples of the character ?p? generated by the learnt model. As a more challenging problem we collected a data set of over 450 character samples of the letters a, b and c. The full model includes the written character class as a random variable and can thus be trained on multi-character data sets. Note that we restrict the total number of primitives to M = 10 which will require a sharing of primitives across characters. Figure 5(a) shows samples of the training data set while Figure 5(b) shows reconstructions of the same samples using the MAP ??s in the full model. Generally, the reconstructions using the full model are better than using the fHMM-only model. This can be understood investigating the distribution of the MAP ??s across different samples under the fHMM-only and the full model, see Figure 6. Coupling the timing and the primitive model during learning has the effect of trying to learn primitives from data that are usually in the same place. Thus, using the full model the inferred spikes are more compactly clustered at the Gaussian components due to the prior imposed from the timing model (the thick black lines correspond to Equation (4)). 6 0 0 ?20 ?20 ?20 ?30 ?40 ?50 ?60 Distance /mm ?30 Distance /mm Distance /mm 0 ?10 ?10 ?40 ?50 ?60 ?70 ?70 ?40 ?60 ?80 ?80 ?80 ?90 ?90 ?10 0 10 20 30 ?100 ?10 40 ?100 0 10 20 30 ?10 40 (a) 0 10 20 30 40 Distance /mm Distance /mm Distance /mm (b) (c) Figure 5: (a) Training dataset, showing 3 character types, and variation. (b) Reconstruction of dataset using 10 primitives learnt from the dataset in (a). (c) Generative samples using the full generative model (Figure 1(B)). m=5 Primitive ? Sample index Primitive ? Sample index m=5 m=4 m=3 m=2 m=1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 m=4 m=3 m=2 m=1 0 Time /ms 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Time /ms (a) (b) Figure 6: (a) Scatter plot of primitive onset spikes for a single character type across all samples and primitives, showing the clustering of certain primitives in particular parts of a character. The horizontal bars separate the results for different primitives. (b) Scatter plot of spikes from same dataset, with a coupled model, showing suppression of outlying spikes and tightening of clusters. The thick black lines displays the prior over ??s imposed from the timing model via Equation (4). Finally, we run the full model autonomously to generate new character samples, see Figure 5(c). Here the character class, c is first sampled uniform randomly and then all learnt parameters are used to eventually sample a trajectory Yt . The generative samples show interesting variation while still being readably a character. 5 Conclusions In this paper we have shown that it is possible to represent handwriting using a primitive based model. The model consists of a superposition of several arbitrary fixed functions. These functions are time-extended, of variable length (during learning), and are superimposed with learnt offsets. The timing of activations is crucial to the accurate reproduction of the character. With a small amount of timing variation, a distorted version of the original character is reproduced, whilst large (and coordinated) differences in the timing pattern produce different character types. The spike code provides a compact representation of movement, unlike that which has previously been explored in the domain of robotic control. We have proposed to use Markov processes conditioned on the character as a model for these spike emissions. Besides contributing to a better understanding of biological movement, we hope that such models will inspire applications also in robotic control, e.g., for movement optimisation based on spike codings. 7 An assumption made in this work is that the primitives are learnt velocity profiles. We have not included any feedback control systems in the primitive production, however the presence of low-level feedback, such as in a spring system (Hinton & Nair, 2005) or dynamic motor primitives (Ijspeert et al., 2003; Schaal et al., 2004), would be interesting to incorporate into the model, and could perhaps be done by changing the outputs of the fHMM to parameterise the spring systems rather than be Gaussian distributions of velocities. We make no assumptions about how the primitives are learnt in biology. It would be interesting to study the evolution of the primitives during human learning of a new character set. As humans become more confident at writing a character, the reproduction becomes faster, and more repeatable. This could be related to a more accurate and efficient use of primitives already available. However, it might also be the case that new primitives are learnt, or old ones adapted. More research needs to be done to examine these various possibilities of how humans learn new motor skills. Acknowledgements Marc Toussaint was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG), Emmy Noether fellowship TO 409/1-3. References Amit, R., & Matari?c, M. (2002). Parametric primitives for motor representation and control. Proc. of the Int. Conf. on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) (pp. 863?868). Bizzi, E., d?Avella, A., Saltiel, P., & Trensch, M. (2002). Modular organization of spinal motor systems. The Neuroscientist, 8, 437?442. Bizzi, E., Giszter, S., Loeb, E., Mussa-Ivaldi, F., & Saltiel, P. (1995). Modular organization of motor behavior in the frog?s spinal cord. Trends in Neurosciences, 18, 442?446. Cemgil, A., Kappen, B., & Barber, D. (2006). A generative model for music transcription. IEEE Transactions on Speech and Audio Processing, 14, 679?694. d?Avella, A., & Bizzi, E. (2005). Shared and specific muscle synergies in natural motor behaviors. PNAS, 102, 3076?3081. d?Avella, A., Saltiel, P., & Bizzi, E. (2003). Combinations of muscle synergies in the construction of a natural motor behavior. Nature Neuroscience, 6, 300?308. Ghahramani, Z., & Jordan, M. (1997). Factorial hidden Markov models. Machine Learning, 29, 245?275. Hinton, G. E., & Nair, V. (2005). Inferring motor programs from images of handwritten digits. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 18 (NIPS 2005) (pp. 515?522). Ijspeert, A. J., Nakanishi, J., & Schaal, S. (2003). Learning attractor landscapes for learning motor primitives. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 15 (NIPS 2003) (pp. 1523?1530). MIT Press, Cambridge. Kargo, W., & Giszter, S. (2000). Rapid corrections of aimed movements by combination of forcefield primitives. J. Neurosci., 20, 409?426. Schaal, S., Peters, J., Nakanishi, J., & Ijspeert, A. (2004). ISRR2003. Learning movement primitives. Singer, Y., & Tishby, N. (1994). Dynamical encoding of cursive handwriting. Biol.Cybern., 71, 227?237. Williams, B., M.Toussaint, & Storkey, A. (2006). Extracting motion primitives from natural handwriting data. Int. Conf. on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN) (pp. 634?643). Williams, B., M.Toussaint, & Storkey, A. (2007). A primitive based generative model to infer timing information in unpartitioned handwriting data. Int. Jnt. Conf. on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) (pp. 1119?1124). Wolpert, D. M., Ghahramani, Z., & Flanagan, J. R. (2001). Perspectives and problems in motor learning. TRENDS in Cog. Sci., 5, 487?494. Wolpert, D. M., & Kawato, M. (1998). Multiple paired forward and inverse models for motor control. Neural Networks, 11, 1317?1329. 8
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The pigeon as particle filter Nathaniel D. Daw Center for Neural Science and Department of Psychology New York University [email protected] Aaron C. Courville D?partement d?Informatique et de recherche op?rationnelle Universit? de Montr?al [email protected] Abstract Although theorists have interpreted classical conditioning as a laboratory model of Bayesian belief updating, a recent reanalysis showed that the key features that theoretical models capture about learning are artifacts of averaging over subjects. Rather than learning smoothly to asymptote (reflecting, according to Bayesian models, the gradual tradeoff from prior to posterior as data accumulate), subjects learn suddenly and their predictions fluctuate perpetually. We suggest that abrupt and unstable learning can be modeled by assuming subjects are conducting inference using sequential Monte Carlo sampling with a small number of samples ? one, in our simulations. Ensemble behavior resembles exact Bayesian models since, as in particle filters, it averages over many samples. Further, the model is capable of exhibiting sophisticated behaviors like retrospective revaluation at the ensemble level, even given minimally sophisticated individuals that do not track uncertainty in their beliefs over trials. 1 Introduction A central tenet of the Bayesian program is the representation of beliefs by distributions, which assign probability to each of a set of hypotheses. The prominent theoretical status accorded to such ambiguity seems rather puzzlingly at odds with the all-or-nothing nature of our everyday perceptual lives. For instance, subjects observing ambiguous or rivalrous visual displays famously report experiencing either percept alternately and exclusively; for even the most fervent Bayesian, it seems impossible simultaneously to interpret the Necker cube as potentially facing either direction [1]. A longstanding laboratory model for the formation of beliefs and their update in light of experience is Pavlovian conditioning in animals, and analogously structured prediction tasks in humans. There is a rich program of reinterpreting data from such experiments in terms of statistical inference [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. The data do appear in a number of respects to reflect key features of the Bayesian ideal ? specifically, that subjects represent beliefs as distributions with uncertainty and appropriately employ it in updating them in light of new evidence. Most notable in this respect are retrospective revaluation phenomena (e.g., [7]), which demonstrate that subjects are able to revise previously favored beliefs in a way suggesting that they had entertained alternative hypotheses all along [6]. However, the data addressed by such models are, in almost all cases, averages over large numbers of subjects. This raises the question whether individuals really exhibit the sophistication attributed to them, or if it instead somehow emerges from the ensemble. Recent work by Gallistel and colleagues [8] frames the problem particularly sharply. Whereas subject-averaged responses exhibit smooth learning curves approaching asymptote (interpreted by Bayesian modelers as reflecting the gradual tradeoff from prior to posterior as data accumulate), individual records exhibit neither smooth learning nor steady asymptote. Instead responding emerges abruptly and fluctuates perpetually. These analyses soundly refute all previous quantitative theories of learning in these tasks: both Bayesian and traditional associative learning. 1 Here we suggest that individuals? behavior in conditioning might be understood in terms of Monte Carlo methods for sequentially sampling different hypotheses (e.g., [9]). Such a model preserves the insights of a statistical framing while accounting for the characteristics of individual records. Through the metaphor of particle filtering, it also explains why exact Bayesian reasoning is a good account of the ensemble. Finally, it addresses another common criticism of Bayesian models: that they attribute wildly intractable computations to the individual. A similar framework has also recently been used to characterize human categorization learning [10]. To make our point in the most extreme way, and to explore the most novel corner of the model space, we here develop as proof of concept the idea that (as with percepts in the Necker cube) subjects sample only a single hypothesis at a time. That is, we treat them as particle filters employing only one particle. We show that even given individuals of such minimal capacity, sophisticated effects like retrospective revaluation can emerge in the ensemble. Clearly intermediate models are possible, either employing more samples or mixtures of sampling and exact methods within the individual, and the insights developed here will extend to those cases. We therefore do not mean to defend the extreme claim that subjects never track or employ uncertainty ? we think this would be highly maladaptive ? but instead intend to explore the role of sampling and also point out how poor is the evidentiary record supporting more sophisticated accounts, and how great is the need for better experimental and analytical methods to test them. 2 2.1 Model Conditioning as exact filtering In conditioning experiments, a subject (say, a dog) experiences outcomes (?reinforcers,? say, food) paired with stimuli (say, a bell). That subjects learn thereby to predict outcomes on the basis of antecedent stimuli is demonstrated by the finding that they emit anticipatory behaviors (such as salivation to the bell) which are taken directly to reflect the expectation of the outcome. Human experiments are analogously structured, but using various cover stories (such as disease diagnosis) and with subjects typically simply asked to state their beliefs about how much they expect the outcome. A standard statistical framing for such a problem [5], which we will adopt here, is to assume that subjects are trying to learn the conditional probability P (r | x) of (real-valued) outcomes r given (vector-valued) stimuli x. One simple generative model is to assume that each stimulus xi (bells, lights, tones) produces reinforcement according to some unknown parameter wi ; that the contributions of multiple stimuli sum; and that the actual reward is Gaussian in the the aggregate. That is, P (r | x) = N (x ? w, ?o2 ), where we take the variance parameter as known. The goal of the subject is then to infer the unknown weights in order to predict reinforcement. If we further assume the weights w can change with time, and take that change as Gaussian diffusion, P (wt+1 | wt ) = N (wt , ?d2 I) (1) then we complete the well known generative model for which Bayesian inference about the weights can be accomplished using the Kalman filter algorithm [5]. Given a Gaussian prior on w0 , the ? t , ?t ), with the mean posterior distribution P (wt | x1..t , r1...t ) also takes a Gaussian form, N (w and covariance given by the recursive Kalman filter update equations. Returning to conditioning, a subject?s anticipatory responding to test stimulus xt is taken to be proportional to her expectation about rt conditional on xt , marginalizing out uncertainty over the ? t , ?t ) = xt ? w ? t. weights. E(rt | xt , w 2.2 Conditioning as particle filtering Here we assume instead that subjects do not maintain uncertainty in their posterior beliefs, via e tL and treats it as true with covariance ?t , but instead that subject L maintains a point estimate w L e t+1 certainty. Even given such certainty, because of diffusion intervening between t and t + 1, w L e t+1 from the will be uncertain; let us assume that she recursively samples her new point estimate w posterior given this diffusion and the new observation xt+1 , rt+1 : L L e t+1 e tL , xt+1 , rt+1 ) w ? P (wt+1 | wt = w 2 (2) This is simply a Gaussian given by the standard Kalman filter equations. In particular, the mean of e tL +xt+1 ?(rt+1 ?xt+1 ? w e t ). Here the Kalman gain ? = ?d2 /(?d2 +?o2 ) the sampling distribution is w e then, is just that given by the Rescorla-Wagner [11] model. is constant; the expected update in w, Such seemingly peculiar behavior may be motivated by the observation that, assuming that the initial e 0L is sampled according to the prior, this process also describes the evolution of a single sample w in particle filtering by sequential importance sampling, with Equation 2 as the optimal proposal distribution [9]. (In this algorithm, particles evolve independently by sequential sampling, and do not interact except for resampling.) Of course, the idea of such sampling algorithms is that one can estimate the true posterior over wt by averaging over particles. In importance sampling, the average must be weighted according to e tL ) over each t) serve to importance weights. These (here, the product of P (rt+1 | xt+1 , wt = w squelch the contribution of particles whose trajectories turn out to be conditionally more unlikely given subsequent observations. If subjects were to behave in accord with this model, then this would give us some insight into the ensemble average behavior, though if computed without importance reweighting, the ensemble average will appear to learn more slowly than the true posterior. 2.3 Resampling and jumps One reason why subjects might employ sampling is that, in generative models more interesting than the toy linear, Gaussian one used here, Bayesian reasoning is notoriously intractable. However, the approximation from a small number of samples (or in the extreme case considered here, one sample) would be noisy and poor. As we can see by comparing the particle filter update rule of Equation 2 to the Kalman filter, because the subject-as-single-sample does not carry uncertainty from trial to trial, she is systematically overconfident in her beliefs and therefore tends to be more reluctant than optimal in updating them in light of new evidence (that is, the Kalman gain is low). This is the individual counterpart to the slowness at the ensemble level, and at the ensemble level, it can be compensated for by importance reweighting and also by resampling (for instance, standard sequential importance resampling; [12, 9]). Resampling kills off conditionally unlikely particles and keeps most samples in conditionally likely parts of the space, with similar and high importance weights. Since optimal reweighting and resampling both involve normalizing importance weights over the ensemble, they are not available to our subject-as-sample. However, there are some generative models that are more forgiving of these problems. In particular, consider Yu and Dayan?s [13] diffusion-jump model, which replaces Equation 1 with P (wt+1 | wt ) = (1 ? ?)N (wt , ?d2 I) + ?N (0, ?j2 I) (3) with ?j ? ?d . Here, the weights usually diffuse as before, but occasionally (with probability ?) are regenerated anew. (We refer to these events as ?jumps? and the previous model of Equation 1 as a ?no-jump? model, even though, strictly speaking, diffusion is accomplished by smaller jumps.) Since optimal inference in this model is intractable (the number of modes in the posterior grows exponentially) Yu and Dayan [13] propose maintaining a simplified posterior: they make a sort of maximum likelihood determination whether a jump occurred or not; conditional on this the posterior is again Gaussian and inference proceeds as in the Kalman filter. If we use Equation 3 together with the one-sample particle filtering scheme of Equation 2, then we simplify the posterior still further by not carrying over uncertainty from trial to trial, but instead L only a point estimate. As before, at each step, we sample from the posterior P (wt+1 | wt = L e t , xt+1 , rt+1 ) given total confidence in our previous estimate. This distribution now has two w modes, one representing the posterior given that a jump occurred, the other representing the posterior given no jump. Importantly, we are more likely to infer a jump, and resample from scratch, if the observation rt+1 is e tL . Specifically, the probability that far from that expected under the hypothesis of no jump, xt+1 ? w no jump occurred (and that we therefore resample according to the posterior distribution given drift ? effectively, the chance that the sample ?survives? as it would have in the no-jump Kalman filter) e tL , no jump). This is also the factor that the trial would ? is proportional to P (rt+1 | xt+1 , wt =w contribute to the importance weight in the no-jump Kalman filter model of the previous section. The importance weight, in turn, is also the factor that would determine the chance that a particle would be selected during an exact resampling step [12, 9]. 3 Figure 1: Aggregate versus individual behavior in conditioning, figures adapted with permission from [8], copyright 2004 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA. (a) Mean over subjects reveals smooth, slow acquisition curve (timebase is in sessions). (b) Individual records are noisier and with more abrupt changes (timebase is in trials). (c) Examples of fits to individual records assuming the behavior is piecewise Poisson with abrupt rate shifts. no jumps jumps 1 1 1.5 0.25 0 0 kalman 0.6 50 0 0 100 0.2 50 100 jumps 0.4 1 no jumps 1.5 probability average P(r) 0.8 0.15 0.1 0.2 0.05 0 (a) 0 20 40 60 trial 80 100 (b) 0 0 50 100 (c) 0 0 50 100 0 (d) 1 50 dynamic interval >100 Figure 2: Simple acquisition in conditioning, simulations using particle filter models. (a) Mean behavior over samples for jump (? = 0.075; ?j = 1; ?d = 0.1; ?o = 0.5) and no-jump (? = 0) particle filter models of conditioning, plotted against exact Kalman filter for same parameters (and ? = 0). (b) Two examples of individual subject traces for the no-jump particle filter model. (c) Two examples of individual subject traces for the particle filter model incorporating jumps. (d) Distribution over individuals using the jump model of the ?dynamic interval? of acquisition, that is the number of trials over which responding grows from negligible to near-asymptotic levels. There is therefore an analogy between sampling in this model and sampling with resampling in the simpler generative model of Equation 1. Of course, this cannot exactly accomplish optimal resampling, both because the chance that a particle survives should be normalized with respect to the population, and because the distribution from which a non-surviving particle resamples should also depend on the ensemble distribution. However, it has a similar qualitative effect of suppressing conditionally unlikely samples and replacing them ultimately with conditionally more likely ones. We can therefore view the jumps of Equation 3 in two ways. First, they could correctly model a jumpy world; by periodically resetting itself, such a world would be relatively forgiving of the tendency for particles in sequential importance sampling to turn out conditionally unlikely. Alternatively, the jumps can be viewed as a fiction effectively encouraging a sort of resampling to improve the performance of low-sample particle filtering in the non-jumpy world of Equation 1. Whatever their interpretation, as we will show, they are critical to explaining subject behavior in conditioning. 3 Acquisition In this and the following section, we illustrate the behavior of individuals and of the ensemble in some simple conditioning tasks, comparing particle filter models with and without jumps (Equations 1 and 3). Figure 1 reproduces some data reanalyzed by Gallistel and colleagues [8], who quantify across a number of experiments what had long been anecdotally known about conditioning: that individual 4 records look nothing like the averages over subjects that have been the focus of much theorizing. Consider the simplest possible experiment, in which a stimulus A is paired repeatedly with food. (We write this as A+.) Averaged learning curves slowly and smoothly climb toward asymptote (Figure 1a, here the anticipatory behavior measured is pigeons pecking), just as does the estimate of the mean, w ?A , in the Kalman filter models. Viewed in individual records (Figure 1b), the onset of responding is much more abrupt (often it occurred in a single trial), and the subsequent behavior much more variable. The apparently slow learning results from the average over abrupt transitions occurring at a range of latencies. Gallistel et al. [8] characterized the behavior as piecewise Poisson with instantaneous rate changes (Figure 1c). These results present a challenge to the bulk of models of conditioning ? not just Bayesian ones, but also associative learning theories like the seminal model of Rescorla & Wagner [11] ubiquitously produce smooth, asymptoting learning curves of a sort that these data reveal to be essentially an artifact of averaging. One further anomaly with Bayesian models even as accounts for the average curves is that acquisition is absurdly slow from a normative perspective ? it emerges long after subjects using reasonable priors would be highly certain to expect reward. This was pointed out by Kakade and Dayan [5], who also suggested an account for why the slow acquisition might actually be normative due to unaccounted priors caused by pretraining procedures known as hopper training. However, Balsam and colleagues later found that manipulating the hopper pretraining did not speed learning [14]. Figure 2 illustrates individual and group behavior for the two particle filter models. As expected, at the ensemble level (Figure 2a), particle filtering without jumps learns slowly, when averaged without importance weighting or resampling and compared to the optimal Kalman filter for the same parameters. As shown, the inclusion of jumps can speed this up. In individual traces using the jumps model (Figure 2c) frequent sampled jumps both at and after acquisition of responding capture the key qualitative features of the individual records: the abrupt onset and ongoing instability. The inclusion of jumps in the generative model is key to this account: as shown in Figure 2b, without these, behavior changes more smoothly. In the jump model, when a jump is sampled, the posterior distribution conditional on the jump having occurred is centered near the observed rt , meaning that the sampled weight will most likely arrive immediately near its asymptotic level. Figure 2d shows that such an abrupt onset of responding is the modal behavior of individuals. Here (after [8]), we have fit each individual run from the jump-model simulations with a sigmoidal Weibull function, and defined the ?dynamic interval? over which acquisition occurs as the number of trials during which this fit function rises from 10% to 90% of its asymptotic level. Of course, the monotonic Weibull curve is not a great characterization of the individual?s noisy predictions, and this mismatch accounts for the long tail of the distribution. Nevertheless, the cumulative distribution from our simulations closely matches the proportions of animals reported as achieving various dynamic intervals when the same analysis was performed on the pigeon data [8]. These simulations demonstrate, first, how sequential sampling using a very low number of samples is a good model of the puzzling features of individual behavior in acquisition, and at the same time clarify why subject-averaged records resemble the results of exact inference. Depending on the presumed frequency of jumps (which help to compensate for this problem) the fact that these averages are of course computed without importance weighting may also help to explain the apparent slowness of acquisition. This could be true regardless of whether other factors, such as those posited by Kakade and Dayan [5], also contribute. 4 Retrospective revaluation So far, we have shown that sequential sampling provides a good qualitative characterization of individual behavior in the simplest conditioning experiments. But the best support for sophisticated Bayesian models of learning comes from more demanding tasks such as retrospective revaluation. These tasks give the best indication that subjects maintain something more than a point estimate of the weights, and instead strongly suggest that they maintain a full joint distribution over them. However, as we will show here, this effect can actually emerge due to covariance information being implicitly represented in the ensemble of beliefs over subjects, even if all the individuals are one-particle samplers. 5 after AB+ after B+ 1 B 0 expected P(r) 1 weight B weight B 1 0 AB+? B+? 0.5 A ?1 ?1 (a) 0 weight A ?1 ?1 1 after AB+ 0 0 weight A 1 0 50 trials 100 after B+ 1 B 0 average P(r) 1 weight B weight B 1 0 AB+? B+? 0.5 A ?1 ?1 (b) 0 weight A 1 ?1 ?1 0 0 weight A 1 0 50 trials 100 Figure 3: Simulations of backward blocking effect, using exact Kalman filter (a) and particle filter model with jumps (b). Left, middle: Joint distributions over wA and wB following first-phase AB+ training (left) and second phase B+ training (middle). For the particle filter, these are derived from the histogram of individual particles? joint point beliefs about the weights. Right: Mean beliefs about wA and wB , showing development of backward blocking. Parameters as in Figure 2. Retrospective revaluation refers to how the interpretation of previous experience can be changed by subsequent experience. A typical task, called backward blocking [7], has two phases. First, two stimuli, A and B, are paired with each other and reward (AB+), so that both develop a moderate level of responding. In the second phase, B alone is paired with reward (B+), and then the prediction to A alone is probed. The typical finding is that responding to A is attenuated; the intuition is that the B+ trials suggested that B alone was responsible for the reward received in the AB+ trials, so the association of A with reward is retrospectively discounted. Such retrospective revaluation phenomena are hard to demonstrate in animals (though see [15]) but robust in humans [7]. Kakade and Dayan [6] gave a more formal analysis of the task in terms of the Kalman filter model. In particular they point out that conditonal on the initial AB+ trials, the model will infer an anticorrelated joint distribution over wA and wB ? i.e., that they together add up to about one. This is represented in the covariance ?; the joint distribution is illustrated in Figure 3a (left). Subsequent B+ training indicates that wB is high, which means, given its posterior anticorrelation with wA , that the latter is likely low. Note that this explanation seems to turn crucially on the representation of the full joint distribution over the weights, rather than just a point estimate. Contrary to this intuition, Figure 3b demonstrates the same thing in the particle filter model with jumps. At the end of AB+ training, the subjects as an ensemble represent the anti-correlated joint distribution over the weights, even though each individual maintains only a particular point belief. Moreover, B+ training causes an aggregate backward blocking effect. This is because individuals who believe that wA is high tend also to believe that wB is low, which makes them most likely to sample that a jump has occurred during subsequent B+ training. The samples most likely to stay in place already have w eA low and w eB high; beliefs about wA are, on average, thereby reduced, producing the backward blocking effect in the ensemble. Note that this effect depends on the subjects sampling using a generative model that admits of jumps (Equation 3). Although the population implicitly represents the posterior covariance between wA and wB even using the diffusion model with no jumps (Equation 1; simulations not illustrated), sub6 sequent B+ training has no tendency to suppress the relevant part of the posterior, and no backward blocking effect is seen. Again, this traces to the lack of a mechanism for downweighting samples that turn out to be conditionally unlikely. 5 Discussion We have suggested that individual subjects in conditioning experiments behave as though they are sequentially sampling hypotheses about the underlying weights: like particle filters using a single sample. This model reproduces key and hitherto theoretically troubling features of individual records, and also, rather more surprisingly, has the ability to reproduce more sophisticated behaviors that had previously been thought to demonstrate that subjects represented distributions in a fully Bayesian fashion. One practical problem with particle filtering using a single sample is the lack of distributional information to allow resampling or reweighting; we have shown that use of a particular generative model previously proposed by Yu and Dayan [13] (involving sudden shocks that effectively accomplish resampling) helps to compensate qualitatively if not quantitatively for this failing. This mechanism is key to all of our results. The present work echoes and formalizes a long history of ideas in psychology about hypothesis testing and sudden insight in learning, going back to Thorndike?s puzzle boxes. It also complements a recent model of human categorization learning [10], which used particle filters to sample (sparsely or even with a single sample) over possible clusterings of stimuli. That work concentrated on trial ordering effects arising from the sparsely represented posterior (see also [16]); here we concentrate on a different set of phenomena related to individual versus ensemble behavior. Gallistel and colleagues? [8] demonstration that individual learning curves exhibit none of the features of the ensemble average curves that had previously been modeled poses rather a serious challenge for theorists: After all, what does it mean to model only the ensemble? Surely the individual subject is the appropriate focus of theory ? particularly given the evolutionary rationale often advanced for Bayesian modeling, that individuals who behave rationally will have higher fitness. The present work aims to refocus theorizing on the individual, while at the same time clarifying why the ensemble may be of interest. (At the group level, there may also be a fitness advantage to spreading different beliefs ? say, about productive foraging locations ? across subjects rather than having the entire population gravitate toward the ?best? belief. This is similar to the phenomenon of mixed strategy equilibrium in multiplayer games, and may provide an additional motivation for sampling.) Previous models fail to predict any intersubject variability because they incorporate no variation in either the subjects? beliefs or in their responses given their beliefs. We have suggested that the structure in response timeseries suggests a prominent role for intersubject variability in the beliefs, due to sampling. There is surely also noise in the responding, which we do not model, but for this alone to rescue previous models, one would have to devise some other explanation for the noise?s structure. (For instance, if learning is monotonic, simple IID output noise would not predict sustained excursions away from asymptote as in Fig 1c.) Similarly, nonlinearity in the performance function relating beliefs to response rates might help to account for the sudden onset of responding even if learning is smooth, but would not address the other features of the data. In addition to addressing the empirical problem of fit to the individual, sampling also answers an additional problem with Bayesian models: that they attribute to subjects the capacity for radically intractable calculations. While the simple Kalman filter used here is tractable, there has been a trend in modeling human and animal learning toward assuming subjects perform inference about model structure (e.g., recovering structural variables describing how different latent causes interact to produce observations; [4, 3, 2]). Such inference cannot be accomplished exactly using simple recursive filtering like the Kalman filter. Indeed, it is hard to imagine any approach other than sequentially sampling one or a small number of hypothetical model structures, since even with the structure known, there typically remains a difficult parametric inference problem. The present modeling is therefore motivated, in part, toward this setting. While in our model, subjects do not explicitly carry uncertainty about their beliefs from trial to trial, they do maintain hyperparameters (controlling the speed of diffusion, the noise of observations, and the probability of jumps) that serve as a sort of constant proxy for uncertainty. We might expect them 7 to adjust these so as to achieve the best performance; because the inference is anyway approximate, the veridical, generative settings of these parameters will not necessarily perform the best. Of course, the present model is only the simplest possible sketch, and there is much work to do in developing it. In particular, it would be useful to develop less extreme models in which subjects either rely on sampling with more particles, or on some combination of sampling and exact inference. We posit that many of the insights developed here will extend to such models, which seem more realistic since exclusive use of low-sample particle filtering would be extremely brittle and unreliable. (The example of the Necker cube also invites consideration of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling for exploration of multimodal posteriors even in nonsequential inference [1] ? such methods are clearly complementary.) However, there is very little information available about individual-level behavior to constrain the details of approximate inference. The present results on backward blocking stress again the perils of averaging and suggest that data must be analyzed much more delicately if they are ever to bear on issues of distributions and uncertainty. In the case of backward blocking, if our account is correct, there should be a correlation, over individuals, between the degree to which they initially exhibited a low w eB and the degree to which they subsequently exhibited a backward blocking effect. This would be straightforward to test. More generally, there has been a recent trend [17] toward comparing models against raw trial-by-trial data sets according to the cumulative loglikelihood of the data. Although this measure aggregates over trials and subjects, it measures the average goodness of fit, not the goodness of fit to the average, making it much more sensitive for purposes of studying the issues discussed in this article. References [1] P Schrater and R Sundareswara. Theory and dynamics of perceptual bistability. In NIPS 19, 2006. [2] TL Griffiths and JB Tenenbaum. Structure and strength in causal induction. Cognit Psychol, 51:334?384, 2005. [3] AC Courville, ND Daw, and DS Touretzky. Similarity and discrimination in classical conditioning: A latent variable account. In NIPS 17, 2004. [4] AC Courville, ND Daw, GJ Gordon, and DS Touretzky. Model uncertainty in classical conditioning. In NIPS 16, 2003. [5] S Kakade and P Dayan. Acquisition and extinction in autoshaping. Psychol Rev, 109:533?544, 2002. [6] S Kakade and P Dayan. Explaining away in weight space. In NIPS 13, 2001. [7] DR Shanks. Forward and backward blocking in human contingency judgement. Q J Exp Psychol B, 37:1?21, 1985. [8] CR Gallistel, S Fairhurst, and P Balsam. The learning curve: Implications of a quantitative analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 101:13124?13131, 2004. [9] A Doucet, S Godsill, and C Andrieu. On sequential Monte Carlo sampling methods for Bayesian filtering. Stat Comput, 10:197?208, 2000. [10] AN Sanborn, TL Griffiths, and DJ Navarro. A more rational model of categorization. In CogSci 28, 2006. [11] RA Rescorla and AR Wagner. A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: The effectiveness of reinforcement and non-reinforcement. In AH Black and WF Prokasy, editors, Classical Conditioning, 2: Current Research and Theory, pages 64?69. 1972. [12] DB Rubin. Using the SIR algorithm to simulate posterior distributions. In JM Bernardo, MH DeGroot, DV Lindley, and AFM Smith, editors, Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 3, pages 395?402. 1988. [13] AJ Yu and P Dayan. Expected and unexpected uncertainty: ACh and NE in the neocortex. In NIPS 15, 2003. [14] PD Balsam, S Fairhurst, and CR Gallistel. Pavlovian Contingencies and Temporal Information. J Exp Psychol Anim Behav Process, 32:284?295, 2006. [15] RR Miller and H Matute. Biological significance in forward and backward blocking: Resolution of a discrepancy between animal conditioning and human causal judgment. J Exp Psychol Gen, 125:370?386, 1996. [16] ND Daw, AC Courville, and P Dayan. Semi-rational models of cognition: The case of trial order. In N Chater and M Oaksford, editors, The Probabilistic Mind. 2008. (in press). [17] ND Daw and K Doya. The computational neurobiology of learning and reward. Curr Opin Neurobiol, 16:199?204, 2006. 8
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Learning the 2-D Topology of Images Yoshua Bengio University of Montreal [email protected] Nicolas Le Roux University of Montreal [email protected] Marc Joliveau ? Ecole Centrale Paris [email protected] Pascal Lamblin University of Montreal [email protected] Bal?azs K?egl LAL/LRI, University of Paris-Sud, CNRS 91898 Orsay, France [email protected] Abstract We study the following question: is the two-dimensional structure of images a very strong prior or is it something that can be learned with a few examples of natural images? If someone gave us a learning task involving images for which the two-dimensional topology of pixels was not known, could we discover it automatically and exploit it? For example suppose that the pixels had been permuted in a fixed but unknown way, could we recover the relative two-dimensional location of pixels on images? The surprising result presented here is that not only the answer is yes, but that about as few as a thousand images are enough to approximately recover the relative locations of about a thousand pixels. This is achieved using a manifold learning algorithm applied to pixels associated with a measure of distributional similarity between pixel intensities. We compare different topologyextraction approaches and show how having the two-dimensional topology can be exploited. 1 Introduction Machine learning has been applied to a number of tasks involving an input domain with a special topology: one-dimensional for sequences, two-dimensional for images, three-dimensional for videos and for 3-D capture. Some learning algorithms are generic, e.g., working on arbitrary unstructured vectors in d , such as ordinary SVMs, decision trees, neural networks, and boosting applied to generic learning algorithms. On the other hand, other learning algorithms successfully exploit the specific topology of their input, e.g., SIFT-based machine vision [10], convolutional neural networks [6, 7], time-delay neural networks [5, 16]. It has been conjectured [8, 2] that the two-dimensional structure of natural images is a very strong prior that would require a huge number of bits to specify, if starting from the completely uniform prior over all possible permutations. The question studied here is the following: is the two-dimensional structure of natural images a very strong prior or is it something that can be learned with a few examples? If a small number of examples is enough to discover that structure, then the conjecture in [8] about the image topology was probably incorrect. To answer that question we consider a hypothetical learning task involving images whose pixels have been permuted in a fixed but unknown way. Could we recover the 1 two-dimensional relations between pixels automatically? Could we exploit it to obtain better generalization? A related study performed in the context of ICA can be found in [1]. The basic idea of the paper is that the two-dimensional topology of pixels can be recovered by looking for a two-dimensional manifold embedding pixels (each pixel is a point in that space), such that nearby pixels have similar distributions of intensity (and possibly color) values. We explore a number of manifold techniques with this goal in mind, and explain how we have adapted these techniques in order to obtain the positive and surprising result: the two-dimensional structure of pixels can be recovered from a rather small number of training images. On images we find that the first 2 dimensions are dominant, meaning that even the knowledge that 2 dimensions are most appropriate could probably be inferred from the data. 2 Manifold Learning Techniques Used In this paper we have explored the question raised in the introduction for the particular case of images, i.e., with 2-dimensional structures, and our experiments have been performed with images of size 27 ? 27 to 30 ? 30, i.e., with about a thousand pixels. It means that we have to look for the embedding of about a thousand points (the pixels) on a two-dimensional manifold. Metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling MDS is a linear embedding technique (analogous to PCA but starting from distances and yielding coordinates on the principal directions, of maximum variance). Nonparametric techniques such as Isomap [13], Local Linear Embedding (LLE) [12], or Semidefinite Embedding (SDE, also known as MVU for Maximum Variance Unfolding) [17] have computation time that scale polynomially in the number of examples n. With n around a thousand, all of these are feasible, and we experimented with MDS, Isomap, LLE, and MVU. Since we found Isomap to work best to recover the pixel topology even on small sets of images, we review the basic elements of Isomap. It applies the metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) algorithm to geodesic distances in the neighborhood graph. The neighborhood graph is obtained by connecting the k nearest neighbors of each point. Each arc of the graph is associated with a distance (the user-provided distance between points), and is used to compute an approximation of the geodesic distance on the manifold with the length of the shortest path between two points. The metric MDS algorithm then transforms these distances into d-dimensional coordinates as follows. It first computes the dot-product (or Gram) formula, P 2n ? n1 matrix P 2M using Pthe ?double-centering? 2 2 yielding entries Mij = ? 21 (Dij ? n1 i Dij ? n j Dij + n12 i,j Dij ). The d principal eigenvectors vk?and eigenvalues ?k (k = 1, . . . , d) of M are then computed. This yields the coordinates: xik = vki ?k is the k-th embedding coordinate of point i. 3 Topology-Discovery Algorithms In order to apply a manifold learning algorithm, we must generally have a notion of similarity or distance between the points to embed. Here each point corresponds to a pixel, and the data we have about the pixels provide an empirical distribution of intensities for all pixels. Therefore we want to compare two estimate the statistical dependency between two pixels, in order to determine if they should be ?neighbors? on the manifold. A simple and natural dependency statistic is the correlation between pixel intensities, and it works very well. The empirical correlation ?ij between the intensity of pixel i and pixel j is in the interval [?1, 1]. However, two pixels highly anti-correlated are much more likely to be close than pixels not correlated (think of edges in an image). We should thus consider the absolute value of the correlations. If we assume them to be the value of a Gaussian kernel 1 2 |?ij | = K(xi , xj ) = e? 2 kxi ?xj k , then by defining Dij = kxi ? xj k and solving the above for Dij we obtain a ?distance? formula that can be used with the manifold learning algorithms: q Dij = ? log |?ij | . (1) Note that scaling the distances in the Gaussian kernel by a variance parameter would only scale the resulting embedding, so it is unnecessary. 2 Many other measures of distance would probably work as well. However, we found the absolute correlation to be simple and easy to understand while yielding nice embeddings. 3.1 Dealing With Low-Variance Pixels A difficulty we observed in experimenting with different manifold learning algorithms on data sets such as MNIST is the influence of low-variance pixels. On MNIST digit images the border pixels may have 0 or very small variance. This makes them all want to be close to each other, which tends to fold the manifold on itself. To handle this problem we have simply ignored pixels with very low variance. When these represent a fixed background (as in MNIST images), this strategy works fine. In the experiments with MNIST we removed pixels with standard deviation less than 15% of the maximum standard deviation (maximum over all pixels). On the NORB dataset, which has varied backgrounds, this step does not remove any of the pixels (so it is unnecessary). 4 Converting Back to a Grid Image Once we have obtained an embedding for the pixels, the next thing we would like to do is to transform the data vectors back into images. For this purpose we have performed the following two steps: 1. Choosing horizontal and vertical axes (since the coordinates on the manifold can be arbitrarily rotated), and rotating the embedding coordinates accordingly, and 2. Transforming the input vector of intensity values (along with the pixel coordinates) into an ordinary discrete image on a grid. This should be done so that the resulting intensity at position (i, j) is close to the intensity values associated with input pixels whose embedding coordinates are (i, j). Such a mapping of pixels to a grid has already been done in [4], where a grid topology is defined by the connections in a graphical model, which is then trained by maximizing the approximate likelihood. However, they are not starting from a continuous embedding, but from the original data. Let pk (k = 1 . . . N ) be the embedding coordinates found by the dimensionality reduction algorithm for the k-th input variable. We select the horizontal axis as the direction of smaller spread, the vertical axis being in the orthogonal direction, and perform the appropriate rotation. Once we have a coordinate system that assigns a 2-dimensional position p k to the k-th input pixel, placed at irregular locations inside a rectangular grid, we can map the input intensities x k into intensities Mi,j , so as to obtain a regular image that can be processed by standard image-processing and machine vision learning algorithms. The output image pixel intensity M i,j at coordinates (i, j) is obtained through a convex average X Mi,j = wi,j,k xk (2) k where the weights are non-negative and sum to one, and are chosen as follows. vi,j,k wi,j,k = P k vi,j,k with an exponential of the L1 distance to give less weight to farther points: vi,j,k = exp (?k(i, j) ? pk k1 ) N (i,j,k) (3) where N (i, j, k) is true if k(i, j) ? pk k1 < 2 (or inferior to a larger radius to make sure that at least one input pixel k is associated with output grid position (i, j)). We used ? = 3 in the experiments, after trying only 1, 3 and 10. Large values of ? correspond to using only the nearest neighbor of (i, j) among the pk s. Smaller values smooth the intensities and make the output look better if the embedding is not perfect. Too small values result in a loss of effective resolution. 3 Algorithm 1 Pseudo-code of the topology-learning learning that recovers the 2-D structure of inputs provided in an arbitrary but fixed order. Input: X {Raw input n ? N data matrix, one row per example, with elements in fixed but arbitrary order} Input: ? = 0.15 (default value){Minimum relative standard deviation threshold, to remove too low-variance pixels} Input: k = 4?(default value){Number of neighbors used to build Isomap neighborhood graph} ? Input: L = N , W = N (default values) {Dimensions (length L, width W of output image)} Input: ? = 3 (default value) {Smoothing coefficient to recover images} Output: p {N ? 2 matrix of embedding coordinates (one per row) for each input variable} Output: w {Convolution weights to recover an image from a raw input vector} n = number of examples (rows of X) for all column P X.i do ?i ? n1 t Xti {Compute means} P ?i2 ? n1 t (Xti ? ?i )2 {Compute variances} end for Remove columns of X for which max?ji ?j < ? for all column X.i do for all column X.j do (X.i ??i )0 (X.j ??j ) empirical correlation ?ij = {Compute all pair-wise empirical correla?i ?j tions} p pseudo-distances Dij = ? log |?ij | end for end for {Compute the 2-D embeddings (pk1 , pk2 ) of each input variable k through Isomap} p = Isomap(D, k, 2) {Rotate the coordinates p to try to align them to a vertical-horizontal grid (see text)} {Invert the axes if L < W } {Compute the convolution weights that will map raw values to output image pixel intensities} for all grid position (i, j) in output image (i in 1 . . . L, j in 1 . . . W ) do r=1 repeat neighbors ? {k : ||pk ? (i, j)||1 < r} r ?r+1 until neighbors not empty for all k in neighbors do vk ? e?||pk ?(i,j)||1 end for wi,j,. ? 0 for all k in neighbors do v {Compute convolution weights} wi,j,k = P i,j,k k vi,j,k end for end for Algorithm 2 Convolve a raw input vector into a regular grid image, using the already discovered embedding for each input variable. Input: x {Raw input N -vector (in same format as a row of X above)} Input: p {N ? 2 matrix of embedding coordinates (one per row) for each input variable} Input: w {Convolution weights to recover an image from a raw input vector} Output: Y {L ? W output image} for all gridPposition (i, j) in output image (i in 1 . . . L, j in 1 . . . W ) do Yi,j ? k wi,j,k xk {Perform the convolution} end for 4 5 Experimental Results We performed experiments on two sets of images: MNIST digits dataset and NORB object classification dataset 1 . We used the ?jittered objects and cluttered background? image set from NORB. The MNIST images are particular in that they have a white background, whereas the NORB images have more varying backgrounds. The NORB images are originally of dimension 108 ? 108; we subsampled them by 4 ? 4 averaging into 27 ? 27 images. The experiments have been performed with k = 4 neighbors for the Isomap embedding. Smaller values of k often led to unconnected neighborhood graphs, which Isomap cannot deal with. (a) Isomap embedding (b) LLE embedding (c) MDS embedding (d) MVU embedding Figure 1: Examples of embeddings discovered by Isomap, LLE, MDS and MVU with 250 training images from NORB. Each of the original pixel is placed at the location discovered by the algorithm. Size of the circle and gray level indicate the original true location of the pixel. Manifold learning produces coordinates with an arbitrary rotation. Isomap appears most robust, and MDS the worst method, for this task. In Figure 1 we compare four different manifold learning algorithms on the NORB images: Isomap, LLE, MDS and MVU. Figure 2 explains why Isomap is giving good results, especially in comparison with MDS. One the one hand, MDS is using the pseudo-distance defined in equation 1, whose relationship with the real distance between two pixels in the original image is linear only in a small neighborhood. On the other hand, Isomap uses the geodesic distances in the neighborhood graph, whose relationship with the real distance is really close to linear. (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 2: (a) and (c): Pseudo-distance Dij (using formula 1) vs. the true distance on the grid. (b) and (d): Geodesic distance in neighborhood graph vs. the true distance on the grid. The true distance is on the horizontal axis for all figures. (a) and (b) are for a point in the upper-left corner, (c) and (d) for a point in the center. Figure 3 shows the embeddings obtained on the NORB data using different numbers of examples. In order to quantitatively evaluate the reconstruction, we applied on each embedding the similarity transformation that minimizes the Root of the Mean Squared Error (RMSE) between the coordinates of each pixel on the embedding, and their coordinates on the original grid, before measuring the residual error. This minimization is justified because the discovered embedding could be arbitrarily rotated, isotropically scaled, and mirrored. 100 examples are enough to get a reasonable embedding, and with 2000 or more a very good embedding is obtained: the RMSE for 2000 examples is 1.13, meaning that in expectation, each pixel is off by slightly more than one. 1 Both can be obtained from Yann Le Cun?s web site: http://yann.lecun.com/. 5 9.25 10 examples 2.43 50 examples 1.68 100 examples 1.21 1000 examples 1.13 2000 examples Figure 3: Embedding discovered by Isomap on the NORB dataset, with different numbers of training samples (top row). Second row shows the same embeddings aligned (by a similarity transformation) on the original grid, third row shows the residual error (RMSE) after the alignment. Figure 4 shows the whole process of transforming an original image (with pixels possibly permuted) into an embedded image and finally into a reconstructed image as per algorithms 1 and 2. Figure 4: Example of the process of transforming an MNIST image (top) from which pixel order is unknown (second row) into its embedding (third row) and finally reconstructed as an image after rotation and convolution (bottom). In the third row, we show the intensity associated to each original pixel by the grey level in a circle located at the pixel coordinates discovered by Isomap. We also performed experiments with acoustic spectral data to see if the time-frequency topology can be recovered. The acoustic data come from the first 100 blues pieces of a publically available genre classification dataset [14]. The FFT is computed for each frame and there are 86 frames per second. The first 30 frequency bands are kept, each covering 21.51 Hz. We used examples formed by 30-frame spectrograms, i.e., just like images of size 30 ? 30. Using the first 600,000 audio samples from each recording yielded 2600 30-frames images, on which we applied our technique. Figure 5 shows the resulting embedding when we removed the 30 coordinates of lowest standard deviation (? = .15). 6 4 Eigenvalues Ratio of consecutive eigenvalues 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 (a) Blues embedding 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (b) Spectrum Figure 5: Embedding and spectrum decay for sequences of blues music. 6 Discussion Although [8] argue that learning the right permutation of pixels with a flat prior might be too difficult (either in a lifetime or through evolution), our results suggest otherwise. How do we interpret that apparent contradiction? The main element of explanation that we see is that the space of permutations of d numbers is not ? d such a large class of functions. There are approximately N = 2?d de permutations (Stirling approximation) of d numbers. Since this is a finite class of functions, its VC-dimension [15] is h = log N ? d log d ? d. Hence if we had a bounded criterion (say taking values in [0, 1]) to compare different permutations and we used n examples (i.e., n images, here), we r would expect the difference between generaliza1 2 log N/? with probability 1??. Hence, with n a tion error and test error to be bounded [15] by 2 n multiple of d log d, we would expect that one could approximately learn a good permutation. When d = 400 (the number of pixels with non-negligible variance in MNIST images), d log d ? d ? 2000. This is more than what we have found necessary to recover a ?good? representation of the images, but on the other hand there are equivalent classes within the set of permutations that give as good results as far as our objective and subjective criteria are concerned: we do not care about image symmetries, rotations, and small errors in pixel placement. What is the selection criterion that we have used to recover the image structure? Mainly we have used an additional prior which gives a preference to an order for which nearby pixels have similar distributions. How specific to natural images and how strong is that prior? This may be an application of a more general principle that could be advantageous to learning algorithms as well as to brains. When we are trying to compute useful functions from raw data, it is important to discover dependencies between the input random variables. If we are going to perform computations on subsets of variables at a time (which would seem necessary when the number of inputs is very large, to reduce the amount of connecting hardware), it would seem wiser that these computations combine variables that have dependencies with each other. That directly gives rise to the notion of local connectivity between neurons associated to nearby spatial locations, in the case of brains, the same notion that is exploited in convolutional neural networks. The fact that nearby pixels are more correlated is true at many scales in natural images. This is well known and explains why Gabor-like filters often emerge when trying to learn good filters for images, e.g., by ICA [9] or Products of Experts [3, 11]. In addition to the above arguments, there is another important consideration to keep in mind. The way in which we score permutations is not the way that one would score functions in an ordinary learning experiment. Indeed, by using the distributional similarity between pairs of pixels, we get not just a scalar score but d(d?1)/2 scores. Since our ?scoring function? is much more informative, it is not surprising that it allows us to generalize from many fewer examples. 7 7 Conclusion and Future Work We proved here that, even with a small number of examples, we are able to recover almost perfectly the 2-D topology of images. This allows us to use image-specific learning algorithms without specifying any prior other than the dimensionnality of the coordinates. We also showed that this algorithm performed well on sound data, even though the topology might be less obvious in that case. However, in this paper, we only considered the simple case where we knew in advance the dimensionnality of the coordinates. One could easily apply this algorithm to data whose intrinsic dimensionality of the coordinates is unknown. In that case, one would not convert the embedding to a grid image but rather keep it and connect only the inputs associated to close coordinates (performing a k nearest neighbor for instance). It is not known if such an embedding might be useful for other types of data than the ones discussed above. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank James Bergstra for helping with the audio data. They also want to acknowledge the support from several funding agencies: NSERC, the Canada Research Chairs, and the MITACS network. References [1] S. Abdallah and M. Plumbley. Geometry dependency analysis. Technical Report C4DM-TR06-05, Center for Digital Music, Queen Mary, University of London, 2006. [2] Y. Bengio and Y. Le Cun. Scaling learning algorithms towards AI. In L. Bottou, O. Chapelle, D. DeCoste, and J. Weston, editors, Large Scale Kernel Machines. MIT Press, 2007. [3] G. Hinton, M. Welling, Y. Teh, and S. Osindero. A new view of ica. In Proceedings of ICA-2001, San Diego, CA, 2001. [4] A. Hyv?arinen, P. O. Hoyer, and M. Inki. Topographic independent component analysis. Neural Computation, 13(7):1527?1558, 2001. [5] K. J. Lang and G. E. Hinton. The development of the time-delay neural network architecture for speech recognition. Technical Report CMU-CS-88-152, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1988. [6] Y. LeCun, B. Boser, J. Denker, D. Henderson, R. Howard, W. Hubbard, and L. Jackel. Backpropagation applied to handwritten zip code recognition. Neural Computation, 1(4):541?551, 1989. [7] Y. LeCun, L. Bottou, Y. Bengio, and P. Haffner. Gradient based learning applied to document recognition. Proceedings of the IEEE, 86(11):2278?2324, November 1998. [8] Y. LeCun and J. S. Denker. Natural versus universal probability complexity, and entropy. In IEEE Workshop on the Physics of Computation, pages 122?127. IEEE, 1992. [9] T.-W. Lee and M. S. Lewicki. Unsupervised classification segmentation and enhancement of images using ica mixture models. IEEE Trans. Image Proc., 11(3):270?279, 2002. [10] D. Lowe. Distinctive image features from scale-invariant keypoints. International Journal of Computer Vision, 60(2):91?110, 2004. [11] S. Osindero, M. Welling, and G. Hinton. Topographic product models applied to natural scene statistics. Neural Computation, 18:381?344, 2005. [12] S. Roweis and L. Saul. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding. Science, 290(5500):2323?2326, Dec. 2000. [13] J. Tenenbaum, V. de Silva, and J. Langford. A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Science, 290(5500):2319?2323, Dec. 2000. [14] G. Tzanetakis and P. Cook. Musical genre classification of audio signals. IEEE Transactions on Speech and Audio Processing, 10(5):293?302, Jul 2002. [15] V. Vapnik. Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1982. [16] A. Waibel. Modular construction of time-delay neural networks for speech recognition. Neural Computation, 1:39?46, 1989. [17] K. Q. Weinberger and L. K. Saul. An introduction to nonlinear dimensionality reduction by maximum variance unfolding. In Proceedings of the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), Boston, MA, 2006. 8
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Comparing Bayesian models for multisensory cue combination without mandatory integration Konrad P. K?ording Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago Northwestern University, Dept. PM&R Chicago, IL 60611 [email protected] Ulrik R. Beierholm Computation and Neural Systems California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA 91025 [email protected] Ladan Shams Department of Psychology University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90095 [email protected] Wei Ji Ma Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences University of Rochester Rochester, NY 14620 [email protected] Abstract Bayesian models of multisensory perception traditionally address the problem of estimating an underlying variable that is assumed to be the cause of the two sensory signals. The brain, however, has to solve a more general problem: it also has to establish which signals come from the same source and should be integrated, and which ones do not and should be segregated. In the last couple of years, a few models have been proposed to solve this problem in a Bayesian fashion. One of these has the strength that it formalizes the causal structure of sensory signals. We first compare these models on a formal level. Furthermore, we conduct a psychophysics experiment to test human performance in an auditory-visual spatial localization task in which integration is not mandatory. We find that the causal Bayesian inference model accounts for the data better than other models. Keywords: causal inference, Bayesian methods, visual perception. 1 Multisensory perception In the ventriloquist illusion, a performer speaks without moving his/her mouth while moving a puppet?s mouth in synchrony with his/her speech. This makes the puppet appear to be speaking. This illusion was first conceptualized as ?visual capture?, occurring when visual and auditory stimuli exhibit a small conflict ([1, 2]). Only recently has it been demonstrated that the phenomenon may be seen as a byproduct of a much more flexible and nearly Bayes-optimal strategy ([3]), and therefore is part of a large collection of cue combination experiments showing such statistical near-optimality [4, 5]. In fact, cue combination has become the poster child for Bayesian inference in the nervous system. In previous studies of multisensory integration, two sensory stimuli are presented which act as cues about a single underlying source. For instance, in the auditory-visual localization experiment by Alais and Burr [3], observers were asked to envisage each presentation of a light blob and a sound click as a single event, like a ball hitting the screen. In many cases, however, the brain is not only posed with the problem of identifying the position of a common source, but also of determining whether there was a common source at all. In the on-stage ventriloquist illusion, it is indeed primarily the causal inference process that is being fooled, because veridical perception would attribute independent causes to the auditory and the visual stimulus. 1 To extend our understanding of multisensory perception to this more general problem, it is necessary to manipulate the degree of belief assigned to there being a common cause within a multisensory task. Intuitively, we expect that when two signals are very different, they are less likely to be perceived as having a common source. It is well-known that increasing the discrepancy or inconsistency between stimuli reduces the influence that they have on each other [6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11]. In auditoryvisual spatial localization, one variable that controls stimulus similarity is spatial disparity (another would be temporal disparity). Indeed, it has been reported that increasing spatial disparity leads to a decrease in auditory localization bias [1, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 2, 18, 19, 20, 21]. This decrease also correlates with a decrease in the reports of unity [19, 21]. Despite the abundance of experimental data on this issue, no general theory exists that can explain multisensory perception across a wide range of cue conflicts. 2 Models The success of Bayesian models for cue integration has motivated attempts to extend them to situations of large sensory conflict and a consequent low degree of integration. In one of recent studies taking this approach, subjects were presented with concurrent visual flashes and auditory beeps and asked to count both the number of flashes and the number of beeps [11]. The advantage of the experimental paradigm adopted here was that it probed the joint response distribution by requiring a dual report. Human data were accounted for well by a Bayesian model in which the joint prior distribution over visual and auditory number was approximated from the data. In a similar study, subjects were presented with concurrent flashes and taps and asked to count either the flashes or the taps [9, 22]. The Bayesian model proposed by these authors assumed a joint prior distribution with a near-diagonal form. The corresponding generative model assumes that the sensory sources somehow interact with one another. A third experiment modulated the rates of flashes and beeps. The task was to judge either the visual or the auditory modulation rate relative to a standard [23]. The data from this experiment were modeled using a joint prior distribution which is the sum of a near-diagonal prior and a flat background. While all these models are Bayesian in a formal sense, their underlying generative model does not formalize the model selection process that underlies the combination of cues. This makes it necessary to either estimate an empirical prior [11] by fitting it to human behavior or to assume an ad hoc form [22, 23]. However, we believe that such assumptions are not needed. It was shown recently that human judgments of spatial unity in an auditory-visual spatial localization task can be described using a Bayesian inference model that infers causal structure [24, 25]. In this model, the brain does not only estimate a stimulus variable, but also infers the probability that the two stimuli have a common cause. In this paper we compare these different models on a large data set of human position estimates in an auditory-visual task. In this section we first describe the traditional cue integration model, then the recent models based on joint stimulus priors, and finally the causal inference model. To relate to the experiment in the next section, we will use the terminology of auditory-visual spatial localization, but the formalism is very general. 2.1 Traditional cue integration The traditional generative model of cue integration [26] has a single source location s which produces on each trial an internal representation (cue) of visual location, xV and one of auditory location, xA . We assume that the noise processes by which these internal representations are generated are conditionally independent from each other and follow Gaussian distributions. That is, p (xV |s) ? N (xV ; s, ?V )and p (xA |s) ? N (xA ; s, ?A ), where N (x; ?, ?) stands for the normal distribution over x with mean ? and standard deviation ?. If on a given trial the internal representations are xV and xA , the probability that their source was s is given by Bayes? rule, p (s|xV , xA ) ? p (xV |s) p (xA |s) . If a subject performs maximum-likelihood estimation, then the estimate will be +wA xA s? = wV wxVV +w , where wV = ?12 and wA = ?12 . It is important to keep in mind that this is the A V A estimate on a single trial. A psychophysical experimenter can never have access to xV and xA , which 2 are the noisy internal representations. Instead, an experimenter will want to collect estimates over many trials and is interested in the distribution of s? given sV and sA , which are the sources generated by the experimenter. In a typical cue combination experiment, xV and xA are not actually generated by the same source, but by different sources, a visual one sV and an auditory one sA . These sources are chosen close to each other so that the subject can imagine that the resulting cues originate from a single source and thus implicitly have a common cause. The experimentally observed distribution is then Z Z p (? s|sV , sA ) = p (? s|xV , xA ) p (xV |sV ) p (xA |sA ) dxV dxA Given that s? is a linear combination of two normally distributed variables, it will itself follow a +wA sA 1 normal distribution, with meanh? si = wVwsVV +w and variance ?s?2 = wV +w . The reason that we A A emphasize this point is because many authors identify the estimate distribution p (? s|sV , sA ) with the posterior distribution p (s|xV , xA ). This is justified in this case because all distributions are Gaussian and the estimate is a linear combination of cues. However, in the case of causal inference, these conditions are violated and the estimate distribution will in general not be the same as the posterior distribution. 2.2 Models with bisensory stimulus priors Models with bisensory stimulus priors propose the posterior over source positions to be proportional to the product of unimodal likelihoods and a two-dimensional prior: p (sV , sA |xV , xA ) = p (sV , sA ) p (xV |sV ) p (xA |sA ) The traditional cue combination model has p (sV , sA ) = p (sV ) ? (sV ? sA ), usually (as above) even with p (sV ) uniform. The question arises what bisensory stimulus prior is appropriate. In [11], the prior is estimated from data, has a large number of parameters, and is therefore limited in its predictive power. In [23], it has the form ? (sV ?sA )2 p (sV , sA ) ? ? + e 2? 2 coupling while in [22] the additional assumption ? = 0 is made1 . In all three models, the response distribution p (? sV , s?A |sV , sA ) is obtained by identifying it with the posterior distribution p (sV , sA |xV , xA ). This procedure thus implicitly assumes that marginalizing over the latent variables xV and xA is not necessary, which leads to a significant error for non-Gaussian priors. In this paper we correctly deal with these issues and in all cases marginalize over the latent variables. The parametric models used for the coupling between the cues lead to an elegant low-dimensional model of cue integration that allows for estimates of single cues that differ from one another. C C=1 S XA 2.3 C=2 XV SA SV XA XV Causal inference model In the causal inference model [24, 25], we start from the traditional cue integration model but remove the assumption that two signals are caused by the same source. Instead, the number of sources can be one or two and is itself a variable that needs to be inferred from the cues. Figure 1: Generative model of causal inference. 1 This family of Bayesian posterior distributions also includes one used to successfully model cue combination in depth perception [27, 28]. In depth perception, however, there is no notion of segregation as always a single surface is assumed. 3 If there are two sources, they are assumed to be independent. Thus, we use the graphical model depicted in Fig. 1. We denote the number of sources by C. The probability distribution over C given internal representations xV and xA is given by Bayes? rule: p (C|xV , xA ) ? p (xV , xA |C) p (C) . In this equation, p (C) is the a priori probability of C. We will denote the probability of a common cause by pcommon , so that p (C = 1) = pcommon and p (C = 2) = 1 ? pcommon . The probability of generating xV and xA given C is obtained by inserting a summation over the sources: Z Z p (xV , xA |C = 1) = p (xV , xA |s)p (s) ds = p (xV |s) p (xA |s)p (s) ds Here p (s) is a prior for spatial location, which we assume to be distributed as N (s; 0, ?P ). Then all three factors in this integral hare Gaussians, allowing for anianalytic solution: p (xV , xA |C = 1) = 2 2 2 2 2 2 A ) ?P +xV ?A +xA ?V ? 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 exp ? 12 (xV ??x . 2 ? 2 +? 2 ? 2 +? 2 ? 2 2? ?V ?A +?V ?P +?A ?P V A V P A P For p (xV , xA |C = 2) we realize that xV and xA are independent of each other and thus obtain Z  Z  p (xV , xA |C = 2) = p (xV |sV )p (sV ) dsV p (xA |sA )p (sA ) dsA Again, as all these distributions are assumed hto be Gaussian, we obtain i an analytic solution, x2V x2A 1 1 p (xV , xA |C = 2) = p 2 2 2 2 exp ? 2 ?2 +?2 + ?2 +?2 . Now that we have comp p V A 2? (?V +?p )(?A +?p ) puted p (C|xV , xA ), the posterior distribution over sources is given by X p (si |xV , xA ) = p (si |xV , xA , C) p (C|xV , xA ) C=1,2 where i can be V or A and the posteriors conditioned on C are well-known: p (si |xA , xV , C = 1) = R p (xA |si ) p (xV |si ) p (si ) , p (xA |s) p (xV |s) p (s) ds p (si |xA , xV , C = 2) = R p (xi |si ) p (si ) p (xi |si ) p (si ) dsi The former is the same as in the case of mandatory integration with a prior, the latter is simply the unimodal posterior in the presence of a prior. Based on the posterior distribution on a given trial, p (si |xV ,DxA ), an estimate has to be created. cost funcE D For this, we use a sum-squared-error E 2 2 tion, Cost = p (C = 1|xV , xA ) (? s ? s) + p (C = 2|xV , xA ) (? s ? sV or A ) . Then the best estimate is the mean of the posterior distribution, for instance for the visual estimation: s?V = p (C = 1|xA , xV ) s?V,C=1 + p (C = 2|xA , xV ) s?V,C=2 where s?V,C=1 = ?2 ?2 ?2 xV ?V +xA ?A +xP ?P ?2 ?2 ?2 ?V +?A +?P and s?V,C=2 = ?2 ?2 xV ?V +xP ?P . ?2 ?2 ?V +?P If pcommon equals 0 or 1, this estimate reduces to one of the conditioned estimates and is linear in xV and xA . If 0 < pcommon < 1, the estimate is a nonlinear combination of xV and xA , because of the functional form of p (C|xV , xA ). The response distributions, that is the distributions of s?V and s?A given sV and sA over many trials, now cannot be identified with the posterior distribution on a single trial and cannot be computed analytically either. The correct way to obtain the response distribution is to simulate an experiment numerically. Note that the causal inference model above can also be cast in the form of a bisensory stimulus prior by integrating out the latent variable C, with: p (sA , sV ) = p (C = 1) ? (sA ? sV ) p (sA ) + p (sA ) p (sV ) p (C = 2) However, in addition to justifying the form of the interaction between the cues, the causal inference model has the advantage of being based on a generative model that well formalizes salient properties of the world, and it thereby also allows to predict judgments of unity. 4 3 Model performance and comparison To examine the performance of the causal inference model and to compare it to previous models, we performed a human psychophysics experiment in which we adopted the same dual-report paradigm as was used in [11]. Observers were simultaneously presented with a brief visual and also an auditory stimulus, each of which could originate from one of five locations on an imaginary horizontal line (-10? , -5? , 0? , 5? , or 10? with respect to the fixation point). Auditory stimuli were 32 ms of white noise filtered through an individually calibrated head related transfer function (HRTF) and presented through a pair of headphones, whereas the visual stimuli were high contrast Gabors on a noisy background presented on a 21-inch CRT monitor. Observers had to report by means of a key press (1-5) the perceived positions of both the visual and the auditory stimulus. Each combination of locations was presented with the same frequency over the course of the experiment. In this way, for each condition, visual and auditory response histograms were obtained. We obtained response distributions for each the three models described above by numeral simulation. On each trial, estimation is followed by a step in which, the key is selected which corresponds to the position closed to the best estimate. The simulated histograms obtained in this way were compared to the measured response frequencies of all subjects by computing the R2 statistic. Auditory response Auditory model Visual response Visual model no vision The parameters in the causal inference model were optimized using fminsearch in MATLAB to maximize R2 . The best combination of parameters yielded an R2 of 0.97. The response frequencies are depicted in Fig. 2. The bisensory prior models also explain most of the variance, with R2 = 0.96 for the Roach model and R2 = 0.91 for the Bresciani model. This shows that it is possible to model cue combination for large disparities well using such models. no audio 1 0 Figure 2: A comparison between subjects? performance and the causal inference model. The blue line indicates the frequency of subjects responses to visual stimuli, red line is the responses to auditory stimuli. Each set of lines is one set of audio-visual stimulus conditions. Rows of conditions indicate constant visual stimulus, columns is constant audio stimulus. Model predictions is indicated by the red and blue dotted line. 5 3.1 Model comparison To facilitate quantitative comparison with other models, we now fit the parameters of each model2 to individual subject data, maximizing the likelihood of the model, i.e., the probability of the response frequencies under the model. The causal inference model fits human data better than the other models. Compared to the best fit of the causal inference model, the Bresciani model has a maximal log likelihood ratio (base e) of the data of ?22 ? 6 (mean ? s.e.m. over subjects), and the Roach model has a maximal log likelihood ratio of the data of ?18 ? 6. A causal inference model that maximizes the probability of being correct instead of minimizing the mean squared error has a maximal log likelihood ratio of ?18 ? 3. These values are considered decisive evidence in favor of the causal inference model that minimizes the mean squared error (for details, see [25]). The parameter values found in the likelihood optimization of the causal model are as follows: pcommon = 0.28 ? 0.05, ?V = 2.14 ? 0.22? , ?A = 9.2 ? 1.1? , ?P = 12.3 ? 1.1? (mean ? s.e.m. over subjects). We see that there is a relatively low prior probability of a common cause. In this paradigm, auditory localization is considerably less precise than visual localization. Also, there is a weak prior for central locations. 3.2 Localization bias We used the individual subject fittings from above and and averaged the auditory bias values obtained from those fits (i.e. we did not fit the bias data themselves). Fits are shown in Fig. 3 (dashed lines). We applied a paired t-test to the differences between the 5? and 20? disparity conditions (model-subject comparison). Using a double-sided test, the null hypothesis that the difference between the bias in the 5? and 20? conditions is correctly predicted by each model is rejected for the Bresciani model (p < 0.002) and the Roach model (p < 0.042) and accepted for the causal inference model (p > 0.17). Alternatively, with a single-sided test, the hypothesis is rejected for the Bresciani model (p < 0.001) and the Roach model (p < 0.021) and accepted for the causal inference model (> 0.9). % Auditory Bias A useful quantity to gain more insight into the structure of multisensory data is the cross-modal bias. In our experiment, relative auditory bias is defined as the difference between the mean auditory estimate in a given condition and the real auditory position, divided by the difference between the real visual position and the real auditory position in this condition. If the influence of vision on the auditory estimate is strong, then the relative auditory bias will be high (close to one). It is well-known that bias decreases with spatial disparity and our experiment is no exception (solid line in Fig. 3; data were combined between positive and negative disparities). It can easily be shown that a traditional cue integration model would predict a bias equal to ?1  ?2 , which would be close to 1 and 1 + ?V2 50 A independent of disparity, unlike the data. This 45 shows that a mandatory integration model is an insufficient model of multisensory interactions. 40 35 30 25 20 5 10 15 Spatial Disparity (deg.) 20 Figure 3: Auditory bias as a function of spatial disparity. Solid blue line: data. Red: Causal inference model. Green: Model by Roach et al. [23]. Purple: Model by Bresciani et al. [22]. Models were optimized on response frequencies (as in Fig. 2), not on the bias data. The reason that the Bresciani model fares worst is that its prior distribution does not include a component that corresponds to independent causes. On 2 The Roach et al. model has four free parameters (?,?V , ?A , ?coupling ), the Bresciani et al. model has three (?V , ?A , ?coupling ), and the causal inference model has four (pcommon ,?V , ?A , ?P ). We do not consider the Shams et al. model here, since it has many more parameters and it is not immediately clear how in this model the erroneous identification of posterior with response distribution can be corrected. 6 the contrary, the prior used in the Roach model contains two terms, one term that is independent of the disparity and one term that decreases with increasing disparity. It is thus functionally somewhat similar to the causal inference model. 4 Discussion We have argued that any model of multisensory perception should account not only for situations of small, but also of large conflict. In these situations, segregation is more likely, in which the two stimuli are not perceived to have the same cause. Even when segregation occurs, the two stimuli can still influence each other. We compared three Bayesian models designed to account for situations of large conflict by applying them to auditory-visual spatial localization data. We pointed out a common mistake: for nonGaussian bisensory priors without mandatory integration, the response distribution can no longer be identified with the posterior distribution. After correct implementation of the three models, we found that the causal inference model is superior to the models with ad hoc bisensory priors. This is expected, as the nervous system actually needs to solve the problem of deciding which stimuli have a common cause and which stimuli are unrelated. We have seen that multisensory perception is a suitable tool for studying causal inference. However, the causal inference model also has the potential to quantitatively explain a number of other perceptual phenomena, including perceptual grouping and binding, as well as within-modality cue combination [27, 28]. Causal inference is a universal problem: whenever the brain has multiple pieces of information it must decide if they relate to one another or are independent. As the causal inference model describes how the brain processes probabilistic sensory information, the question arises about the neural basis of these processes. Neural populations encode probability distributions over stimuli through Bayes? rule, a type of coding known as probabilistic population coding. Recent work has shown how the optimal cue combination assuming a common cause can be implemented in probabilistic population codes through simple linear operations on neural activities [29]. This framework makes essential use of the structure of neural variability and leads to physiological predictions for activity in areas that combine multisensory input, such as the superior colliculus. Computational mechanisms for causal inference are expected have a neural substrate that generalizes these linear operations on population activities. A neural implementation of the causal inference model will open the door to a complete neural theory of multisensory perception. References [1] H.L. Pick, D.H. Warren, and J.C. Hay. Sensory conflict in judgements of spatial direction. Percept. Psychophys., 6:203205, 1969. [2] D. H. Warren, R. B. Welch, and T. J. McCarthy. The role of visual-auditory ?compellingness? in the ventriloquism effect: implications for transitivity among the spatial senses. Percept Psychophys, 30(6):557? 64, 1981. [3] D. Alais and D. Burr. The ventriloquist effect results from near-optimal bimodal integration. Curr Biol, 14(3):257?62, 2004. [4] R. A. Jacobs. Optimal integration of texture and motion cues to depth. Vision Res, 39(21):3621?9, 1999. [5] R. J. van Beers, A. C. Sittig, and J. J. Gon. Integration of proprioceptive and visual position-information: An experimentally supported model. J Neurophysiol, 81(3):1355?64, 1999. [6] D. H. Warren and W. T. Cleaves. Visual-proprioceptive interaction under large amounts of conflict. J Exp Psychol, 90(2):206?14, 1971. [7] C. E. Jack and W. R. Thurlow. Effects of degree of visual association and angle of displacement on the ?ventriloquism? effect. Percept Mot Skills, 37(3):967?79, 1973. [8] G. H. Recanzone. Auditory influences on visual temporal rate perception. J Neurophysiol, 89(2):1078?93, 2003. [9] J. P. Bresciani, M. O. Ernst, K. Drewing, G. Bouyer, V. Maury, and A. Kheddar. Feeling what you hear: auditory signals can modulate tactile tap perception. Exp Brain Res, 162(2):172?80, 2005. 7 [10] R. Gepshtein, P. Leiderman, L. Genosar, and D. Huppert. Testing the three step excited state proton transfer model by the effect of an excess proton. J Phys Chem A Mol Spectrosc Kinet Environ Gen Theory, 109(42):9674?84, 2005. [11] L. Shams, W. J. Ma, and U. Beierholm. Sound-induced flash illusion as an optimal percept. Neuroreport, 16(17):1923?7, 2005. [12] G Thomas. Experimental study of the influence of vision on sound localisation. J Exp Psychol, 28:167177, 1941. [13] W. R. Thurlow and C. E. Jack. Certain determinants of the ?ventriloquism effect?. Percept Mot Skills, 36(3):1171?84, 1973. [14] C.S. Choe, R. B. Welch, R.M. Gilford, and J.F. Juola. The ?ventriloquist effect?: visual dominance or response bias. Perception and Psychophysics, 18:55?60, 1975. [15] R. I. Bermant and R. B. Welch. Effect of degree of separation of visual-auditory stimulus and eye position upon spatial interaction of vision and audition. Percept Mot Skills, 42(43):487?93, 1976. [16] R. B. Welch and D. H. Warren. Immediate perceptual response to intersensory discrepancy. Psychol Bull, 88(3):638?67, 1980. [17] P. Bertelson and M. Radeau. Cross-modal bias and perceptual fusion with auditory-visual spatial discordance. Percept Psychophys, 29(6):578?84, 1981. [18] P. Bertelson, F. Pavani, E. Ladavas, J. Vroomen, and B. de Gelder. Ventriloquism in patients with unilateral visual neglect. Neuropsychologia, 38(12):1634?42, 2000. [19] D. A. Slutsky and G. H. Recanzone. Temporal and spatial dependency of the ventriloquism effect. Neuroreport, 12(1):7?10, 2001. [20] J. Lewald, W. H. Ehrenstein, and R. Guski. Spatio-temporal constraints for auditory?visual integration. Behav Brain Res, 121(1-2):69?79, 2001. [21] M. T. Wallace, G. E. Roberson, W. D. Hairston, B. E. Stein, J. W. Vaughan, and J. A. Schirillo. Unifying multisensory signals across time and space. Exp Brain Res, 158(2):252?8, 2004. [22] J. P. Bresciani, F. Dammeier, and M. O. Ernst. Vision and touch are automatically integrated for the perception of sequences of events. J Vis, 6(5):554?64, 2006. [23] N. W. Roach, J. Heron, and P. V. McGraw. Resolving multisensory conflict: a strategy for balancing the costs and benefits of audio-visual integration. Proc Biol Sci, 273(1598):2159?68, 2006. [24] K. P. Kording and D. M. Wolpert. Bayesian decision theory in sensorimotor control. Trends Cogn Sci, 2006. 1364-6613 (Print) Journal article. [25] K.P. Kording, U. Beierholm, W.J. Ma, S. Quartz, J. Tenenbaum, and L. Shams. Causal inference in multisensory perception. PLoS ONE, 2(9):e943, 2007. [26] Z. Ghahramani. Computational and psychophysics of sensorimotor integration. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. [27] D. C. Knill. Mixture models and the probabilistic structure of depth cues. Vision Res, 43(7):831?54, 2003. [28] D. C. Knill. Robust cue integration: A bayesian model and evidence from cue conflict studies with stereoscopic and figure cues to slant. Journal of Vision, 7(7):2?24. [29] W. J. Ma, J. M. Beck, P. E. Latham, and A. Pouget. Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes. Nat Neurosci, 9(11):1432?8, 2006. 8
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Probabilistic Matrix Factorization Ruslan Salakhutdinov and Andriy Mnih Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto 6 King?s College Rd, M5S 3G4, Canada {rsalakhu,amnih}@cs.toronto.edu Abstract Many existing approaches to collaborative filtering can neither handle very large datasets nor easily deal with users who have very few ratings. In this paper we present the Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) model which scales linearly with the number of observations and, more importantly, performs well on the large, sparse, and very imbalanced Netflix dataset. We further extend the PMF model to include an adaptive prior on the model parameters and show how the model capacity can be controlled automatically. Finally, we introduce a constrained version of the PMF model that is based on the assumption that users who have rated similar sets of movies are likely to have similar preferences. The resulting model is able to generalize considerably better for users with very few ratings. When the predictions of multiple PMF models are linearly combined with the predictions of Restricted Boltzmann Machines models, we achieve an error rate of 0.8861, that is nearly 7% better than the score of Netflix?s own system. 1 Introduction One of the most popular approaches to collaborative filtering is based on low-dimensional factor models. The idea behind such models is that attitudes or preferences of a user are determined by a small number of unobserved factors. In a linear factor model, a user?s preferences are modeled by linearly combining item factor vectors using user-specific coefficients. For example, for N users and M movies, the N ? M preference matrix R is given by the product of an N ? D user coefficient matrix U T and a D ? M factor matrix V [7]. Training such a model amounts to finding the best rank-D approximation to the observed N ? M target matrix R under the given loss function. A variety of probabilistic factor-based models has been proposed recently [2, 3, 4]. All these models can be viewed as graphical models in which hidden factor variables have directed connections to variables that represent user ratings. The major drawback of such models is that exact inference is intractable [12], which means that potentially slow or inaccurate approximations are required for computing the posterior distribution over hidden factors in such models. Low-rank approximations based on minimizing the sum-squared distance can be found using Sin? = U T V of the given rank which mingular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD finds the matrix R imizes the sum-squared distance to the target matrix R. Since most real-world datasets are sparse, most entries in R will be missing. In those cases, the sum-squared distance is computed only for the observed entries of the target matrix R. As shown by [9], this seemingly minor modification results in a difficult non-convex optimization problem which cannot be solved using standard SVD implementations. ? = U T V , i.e. the number of factors, Instead of constraining the rank of the approximation matrix R [10] proposed penalizing the norms of U and V . Learning in this model, however, requires solving a sparse semi-definite program (SDP), making this approach infeasible for datasets containing millions of observations. 1 ?V ?U ?U ?W ?V Wk Yi Vj Ui k=1,...,M Vj Ui R ij R ij i=1,...,N j=1,...,M Ii i=1,...,N j=1,...,M ? ? Figure 1: The left panel shows the graphical model for Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF). The right panel shows the graphical model for constrained PMF. Many of the collaborative filtering algorithms mentioned above have been applied to modelling user ratings on the Netflix Prize dataset that contains 480,189 users, 17,770 movies, and over 100 million observations (user/movie/rating triples). However, none of these methods have proved to be particularly successful for two reasons. First, none of the above-mentioned approaches, except for the matrix-factorization-based ones, scale well to large datasets. Second, most of the existing algorithms have trouble making accurate predictions for users who have very few ratings. A common practice in the collaborative filtering community is to remove all users with fewer than some minimal number of ratings. Consequently, the results reported on the standard datasets, such as MovieLens and EachMovie, then seem impressive because the most difficult cases have been removed. For example, the Netflix dataset is very imbalanced, with ?infrequent? users rating less than 5 movies, while ?frequent? users rating over 10,000 movies. However, since the standardized test set includes the complete range of users, the Netflix dataset provides a much more realistic and useful benchmark for collaborative filtering algorithms. The goal of this paper is to present probabilistic algorithms that scale linearly with the number of observations and perform well on very sparse and imbalanced datasets, such as the Netflix dataset. In Section 2 we present the Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) model that models the user preference matrix as a product of two lower-rank user and movie matrices. In Section 3, we extend the PMF model to include adaptive priors over the movie and user feature vectors and show how these priors can be used to control model complexity automatically. In Section 4 we introduce a constrained version of the PMF model that is based on the assumption that users who rate similar sets of movies have similar preferences. In Section 5 we report the experimental results that show that PMF considerably outperforms standard SVD models. We also show that constrained PMF and PMF with learnable priors improve model performance significantly. Our results demonstrate that constrained PMF is especially effective at making better predictions for users with few ratings. 2 Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) Suppose we have M movies, N users, and integer rating values from 1 to K 1 . Let Rij represent the rating of user i for movie j, U ? RD?N and V ? RD?M be latent user and movie feature matrices, with column vectors Ui and Vj representing user-specific and movie-specific latent feature vectors respectively. Since model performance is measured by computing the root mean squared error (RMSE) on the test set we first adopt a probabilistic linear model with Gaussian observation noise (see fig. 1, left panel). We define the conditional distribution over the observed ratings as Iij N Y M  Y p(R|U, V, ? 2 ) = N (Rij |UiT Vj , ? 2 ) , (1) i=1 j=1 where N (x|?, ? 2 ) is the probability density function of the Gaussian distribution with mean ? and variance ? 2 , and Iij is the indicator function that is equal to 1 if user i rated movie j and equal to 1 Real-valued ratings can be handled just as easily by the models described in this paper. 2 0 otherwise. We also place zero-mean spherical Gaussian priors [1, 11] on user and movie feature vectors: 2 p(U |?U )= N Y 2 N (Ui |0, ?U I), p(V |?V2 ) = i=1 M Y N (Vj |0, ?V2 I). (2) j=1 The log of the posterior distribution over the user and movie features is given by N M N M 1 XX 1 X T 1 X T T 2 I (R ? U V ) ? U U ? V Vj ij ij i i j i 2 2? 2 i=1 j=1 2?U 2?V2 j=1 j i=1 ?? ? ? N M 1 ??X X ? 2 ? Iij ln ? 2 + N D ln ?U + M D ln ?V2 ? + C, (3) 2 i=1 j=1 2 ln p(U, V |R, ? 2 , ?V2 , ?U )=? where C is a constant that does not depend on the parameters. Maximizing the log-posterior over movie and user features with hyperparameters (i.e. the observation noise variance and prior variances) kept fixed is equivalent to minimizing the sum-of-squared-errors objective function with quadratic regularization terms: E= N M N M 2 ?U X ?V X 1 XX Iij Rij ? UiT Vj + k Ui k2F ro + k Vj k2F ro , 2 i=1 j=1 2 i=1 2 j=1 (4) 2 where ?U = ? 2 /?U , ?V = ? 2 /?V2 , and k ? k2F ro denotes the Frobenius norm. A local minimum of the objective function given by Eq. 4 can be found by performing gradient descent in U and V . Note that this model can be viewed as a probabilistic extension of the SVD model, since if all ratings have been observed, the objective given by Eq. 4 reduces to the SVD objective in the limit of prior variances going to infinity. In our experiments, instead of using a simple linear-Gaussian model, which can make predictions outside of the range of valid rating values, the dot product between user- and movie-specific feature vectors is passed through the logistic function g(x) = 1/(1 + exp(?x)), which bounds the range of predictions: Iij N Y M  Y p(R|U, V, ? 2 ) = N (Rij |g(UiT Vj ), ? 2 ) . (5) i=1 j=1 We map the ratings 1, ..., K to the interval [0, 1] using the function t(x) = (x ? 1)/(K ? 1), so that the range of valid rating values matches the range of predictions our model makes. Minimizing the objective function given above using steepest descent takes time linear in the number of observations. A simple implementation of this algorithm in Matlab allows us to make one sweep through the entire Netflix dataset in less than an hour when the model being trained has 30 factors. 3 Automatic Complexity Control for PMF Models Capacity control is essential to making PMF models generalize well. Given sufficiently many factors, a PMF model can approximate any given matrix arbitrarily well. The simplest way to control the capacity of a PMF model is by changing the dimensionality of feature vectors. However, when the dataset is unbalanced, i.e. the number of observations differs significantly among different rows or columns, this approach fails, since any single number of feature dimensions will be too high for some feature vectors and too low for others. Regularization parameters such as ?U and ?V defined above provide a more flexible approach to regularization. Perhaps the simplest way to find suitable values for these parameters is to consider a set of reasonable parameter values, train a model for each setting of the parameters in the set, and choose the model that performs best on the validation set. The main drawback of this approach is that it is computationally expensive, since instead of training a single model we have to train a multitude of models. We will show that the method proposed by [6], originally applied to neural networks, can be used to determine suitable values for the regularization parameters of a PMF model automatically without significantly affecting the time needed to train the model. 3 As shown above, the problem of approximating a matrix in the L2 sense by a product of two low-rank matrices that are regularized by penalizing their Frobenius norm can be viewed as MAP estimation in a probabilistic model with spherical Gaussian priors on the rows of the low-rank matrices. The complexity of the model is controlled by the hyperparameters: the noise variance ? 2 and the the 2 parameters of the priors (?U and ?V2 above). Introducing priors for the hyperparameters and maximizing the log-posterior of the model over both parameters and hyperparameters as suggested in [6] allows model complexity to be controlled automatically based on the training data. Using spherical priors for user and movie feature vectors in this framework leads to the standard form of PMF with ?U and ?V chosen automatically. This approach to regularization allows us to use methods that are more sophisticated than the simple penalization of the Frobenius norm of the feature matrices. For example, we can use priors with diagonal or even full covariance matrices as well as adjustable means for the feature vectors. Mixture of Gaussians priors can also be handled quite easily. In summary, we find a point estimate of parameters and hyperparameters by maximizing the logposterior given by ln p(U, V, ? 2 , ?U , ?V |R) = ln p(R|U, V, ? 2 ) + ln p(U |?U ) + ln p(V |?V )+ ln p(?U ) + ln p(?V ) + C, (6) where ?U and ?V are the hyperparameters for the priors over user and movie feature vectors respectively and C is a constant that does not depend on the parameters or hyperparameters. When the prior is Gaussian, the optimal hyperparameters can be found in closed form if the movie and user feature vectors are kept fixed. Thus to simplify learning we alternate between optimizing the hyperparameters and updating the feature vectors using steepest ascent with the values of hyperparameters fixed. When the prior is a mixture of Gaussians, the hyperparameters can be updated by performing a single step of EM. In all of our experiments we used improper priors for the hyperparameters, but it is easy to extend the closed form updates to handle conjugate priors for the hyperparameters. 4 Constrained PMF Once a PMF model has been fitted, users with very few ratings will have feature vectors that are close to the prior mean, or the average user, so the predicted ratings for those users will be close to the movie average ratings. In this section we introduce an additional way of constraining user-specific feature vectors that has a strong effect on infrequent users. Let W ? RD?M be a latent similarity constraint matrix. We define the feature vector for user i as: PM k=1 Iik Wk Ui = Yi + P . (7) M k=1 Iik where I is the observed indicator matrix with Iij taking on value 1 if user i rated movie j and 0 otherwise2 . Intuitively, the ith column of the W matrix captures the effect of a user having rated a particular movie has on the prior mean of the user?s feature vector. As a result, users that have seen the same (or similar) movies will have similar prior distributions for their feature vectors. Note that Yi can be seen as the offset added to the mean of the prior distribution to get the feature vector Ui for the user i. In the unconstrained PMF model Ui and Yi are equal because the prior mean is fixed at zero (see fig. 1). We now define the conditional distribution over the observed ratings as PM  N Y M  Y    2 Iij 2 k=1 Iik Wk T Vj , ? ) . (8) p(R|Y, V, W, ? ) = N (Rij |g Yi + PM i=1 j=1 k=1 Iik We regularize the latent similarity constraint matrix W by placing a zero-mean spherical Gaussian prior on it: p(W |?W ) = M Y 2 N (Wk |0, ?W I). (9) k=1 2 If no rating information is available about some user i, i.e. all entries of Ii vector are zero, the value of the ratio in Eq. 7 is set to zero. 4 The Netflix Dataset 10D 30D 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 Netflix Baseline Score Netflix Baseline Score 0.95 PMF1 RMSE RMSE 0.95 0.94 SVD 0.94 SVD 0.93 PMF2 0.93 0.92 PMF 0.92 0.91 PMFA1 0.91 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0.9 0 100 Constrained PMF 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Epochs Epochs Figure 2: Left panel: Performance of SVD, PMF and PMF with adaptive priors, using 10D feature vectors, on the full Netflix validation data. Right panel: Performance of SVD, Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) and constrained PMF, using 30D feature vectors, on the validation data. The y-axis displays RMSE (root mean squared error), and the x-axis shows the number of epochs, or passes, through the entire training dataset. As with the PMF model, maximizing the log-posterior is equivalent to minimizing the sum-ofsquared errors function with quadratic regularization terms: PM N M  2  1 XX k=1 Iik Wk T Vj (10) Iij Rij ? g Yi + P E = M 2 i=1 j=1 k=1 Iik + N M M ?Y X ?V X ?W X k Yi k2F ro + k Vj k2F ro + k Wk k2F ro , 2 i=1 2 j=1 2 k=1 2 . We can then perform gradient descent in Y , with ?Y = ? 2 /?Y2 , ?V = ? 2 /?V2 , and ?W = ? 2 /?W V , and W to minimize the objective function given by Eq. 10. The training time for the constrained PMF model scales linearly with the number of observations, which allows for a fast and simple implementation. As we show in our experimental results section, this model performs considerably better than a simple unconstrained PMF model, especially on infrequent users. 5 Experimental Results 5.1 Description of the Netflix Data According to Netflix, the data were collected between October 1998 and December 2005 and represent the distribution of all ratings Netflix obtained during this period. The training dataset consists of 100,480,507 ratings from 480,189 randomly-chosen, anonymous users on 17,770 movie titles. As part of the training data, Netflix also provides validation data, containing 1,408,395 ratings. In addition to the training and validation data, Netflix also provides a test set containing 2,817,131 user/movie pairs with the ratings withheld. The pairs were selected from the most recent ratings for a subset of the users in the training dataset. To reduce the unintentional overfitting to the test set that plagues many empirical comparisons in the machine learning literature, performance is assessed by submitting predicted ratings to Netflix who then post the root mean squared error (RMSE) on an unknown half of the test set. As a baseline, Netflix provided the test score of its own system trained on the same data, which is 0.9514. To provide additional insight into the performance of different algorithms we created a smaller and much more difficult dataset from the Netflix data by randomly selecting 50,000 users and 1850 movies. The toy dataset contains 1,082,982 training and 2,462 validation user/movie pairs. Over 50% of the users in the training dataset have less than 10 ratings. 5.2 Details of Training To speed-up the training, instead of performing batch learning we subdivided the Netflix data into mini-batches of size 100,000 (user/movie/rating triples), and updated the feature vectors after each 5 mini-batch. After trying various values for the learning rate and momentum and experimenting with various values of D, we chose to use a learning rate of 0.005, and a momentum of 0.9, as this setting of parameters worked well for all values of D we have tried. 5.3 Results for PMF with Adaptive Priors To evaluate the performance of PMF models with adaptive priors we used models with 10D features. This dimensionality was chosen in order to demonstrate that even when the dimensionality of features is relatively low, SVD-like models can still overfit and that there are some performance gains to be had by regularizing such models automatically. We compared an SVD model, two fixed-prior PMF models, and two PMF models with adaptive priors. The SVD model was trained to minimize the sum-squared distance only to the observed entries of the target matrix. The feature vectors of the SVD model were not regularized in any way. The two fixed-prior PMF models differed in their regularization parameters: one (PMF1) had ?U = 0.01 and ?V = 0.001, while the other (PMF2) had ?U = 0.001 and ?V = 0.0001. The first PMF model with adaptive priors (PMFA1) had Gaussian priors with spherical covariance matrices on user and movie feature vectors, while the second model (PMFA2) had diagonal covariance matrices. In both cases, the adaptive priors had adjustable means. Prior parameters and noise covariances were updated after every 10 and 100 feature matrix updates respectively. The models were compared based on the RMSE on the validation set. The results of the comparison are shown on Figure 2 (left panel). Note that the curve for the PMF model with spherical covariances is not shown since it is virtually identical to the curve for the model with diagonal covariances. Comparing models based on the lowest RMSE achieved over the time of training, we see that the SVD model does almost as well as the moderately regularized PMF model (PMF2) (0.9258 vs. 0.9253) before overfitting badly towards the end of training. While PMF1 does not overfit, it clearly underfits since it reaches the RMSE of only 0.9430. The models with adaptive priors clearly outperform the competing models, achieving the RMSE of 0.9197 (diagonal covariances) and 0.9204 (spherical covariances). These results suggest that automatic regularization through adaptive priors works well in practice. Moreover, our preliminary results for models with higher-dimensional feature vectors suggest that the gap in performance due to the use of adaptive priors is likely to grow as the dimensionality of feature vectors increases. While the use of diagonal covariance matrices did not lead to a significant improvement over the spherical covariance matrices, diagonal covariances might be well-suited for automatically regularizing the greedy version of the PMF training algorithm, where feature vectors are learned one dimension at a time. 5.4 Results for Constrained PMF For experiments involving constrained PMF models, we used 30D features (D = 30), since this choice resulted in the best model performance on the validation set. Values of D in the range of [20, 60] produce similar results. Performance results of SVD, PMF, and constrained PMF on the toy dataset are shown on Figure 3. The feature vectors were initialized to the same values in all three models. For both PMF and constrained PMF models the regularization parameters were set to ?U = ?Y = ?V = ?W = 0.002. It is clear that the simple SVD model overfits heavily. The constrained PMF model performs much better and converges considerably faster than the unconstrained PMF model. Figure 3 (right panel) shows the effect of constraining user-specific features on the predictions for infrequent users. Performance of the PMF model for a group of users that have fewer than 5 ratings in the training datasets is virtually identical to that of the movie average algorithm that always predicts the average rating of each movie. The constrained PMF model, however, performs considerably better on users with few ratings. As the number of ratings increases, both PMF and constrained PMF exhibit similar performance. One other interesting aspect of the constrained PMF model is that even if we know only what movies the user has rated, but do not know the values of the ratings, the model can make better predictions than the movie average model. For the toy dataset, we randomly sampled an additional 50,000 users, and for each of the users compiled a list of movies the user has rated and then discarded the actual ratings. The constrained PMF model achieved a RMSE of 1.0510 on the validation set compared to a RMSE of 1.0726 for the simple movie average model. This experiment strongly suggests that knowing only which movies a user rated, but not the actual ratings, can still help us to model that user?s preferences better. 6 Toy Dataset 1.2 1.3 1.28 1.26 1.15 SVD 1.24 1.1 1.22 1.2 1.05 RMSE RMSE 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 Movie Average PMF 1 Constrained PMF 0.95 1.1 1.08 0.9 PMF 1.06 1.04 1.02 1 0 0.85 Constrained PMF 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0.8 200 1?5 6?10 11?20 21?40 41?80 81?160 >161 Number of Observed Ratings Epochs Figure 3: Left panel: Performance of SVD, Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) and constrained PMF on the validation data. The y-axis displays RMSE (root mean squared error), and the x-axis shows the number of epochs, or passes, through the entire training dataset. Right panel: Performance of constrained PMF, PMF, and the movie average algorithm that always predicts the average rating of each movie. The users were grouped by the number of observed ratings in the training data. 20 1.2 0.92 18 0.918 1.15 16 0.916 14 Users (%) PMF 1.05 RMSE Movie Average 1 Constrained PMF 0.95 0.914 12 0.912 RMSE 1.1 10 0.91 8 0.908 6 0.906 4 0.904 2 0.902 Constrained PMF 0.9 0.85 0.8 1?5 6?10 11?20 21?40 41?80 81?160 161?320 321?640 Number of Observed Ratings >641 0 1?5 6?10 11?20 21?40 41?80 81?160 161?320 321?640 Number of Observed Ratings >641 0.9 0 Constrained PMF (using Test rated/unrated id) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Epochs Figure 4: Left panel: Performance of constrained PMF, PMF, and the movie average algorithm that always predicts the average rating of each movie. The users were grouped by the number of observed rating in the training data, with the x-axis showing those groups, and the y-axis displaying RMSE on the full Netflix validation data for each such group. Middle panel: Distribution of users in the training dataset. Right panel: Performance of constrained PMF and constrained PMF that makes use of an additional rated/unrated information obtained from the test dataset. Performance results on the full Netflix dataset are similar to the results on the toy dataset. For both the PMF and constrained PMF models the regularization parameters were set to ?U = ?Y = ?V = ?W = 0.001. Figure 2 (right panel) shows that constrained PMF significantly outperforms the unconstrained PMF model, achieving a RMSE of 0.9016. A simple SVD achieves a RMSE of about 0.9280 and after about 10 epochs begins to overfit. Figure 4 (left panel) shows that the constrained PMF model is able to generalize considerably better for users with very few ratings. Note that over 10% of users in the training dataset have fewer than 20 ratings. As the number of ratings increases, the effect from the offset in Eq. 7 diminishes, and both PMF and constrained PMF achieve similar performance. There is a more subtle source of information in the Netflix dataset. Netflix tells us in advance which user/movie pairs occur in the test set, so we have an additional category: movies that were viewed but for which the rating is unknown. This is a valuable source of information about users who occur several times in the test set, especially if they have only a small number of ratings in the training set. The constrained PMF model can easily take this information into account. Figure 4 (right panel) shows that this additional source of information further improves model performance. When we linearly combine the predictions of PMF, PMF with a learnable prior, and constrained PMF, we achieve an error rate of 0.8970 on the test set. When the predictions of multiple PMF models are linearly combined with the predictions of multiple RBM models, recently introduced by [8], we achieve an error rate of 0.8861, that is nearly 7% better than the score of Netflix?s own system. 7 6 Summary and Discussion In this paper we presented Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) and its two derivatives: PMF with a learnable prior and constrained PMF. We also demonstrated that these models can be efficiently trained and successfully applied to a large dataset containing over 100 million movie ratings. Efficiency in training PMF models comes from finding only point estimates of model parameters and hyperparameters, instead of inferring the full posterior distribution over them. If we were to take a fully Bayesian approach, we would put hyperpriors over the hyperparameters and resort to MCMC methods [5] to perform inference. While this approach is computationally more expensive, preliminary results strongly suggest that a fully Bayesian treatment of the presented PMF models would lead to a significant increase in predictive accuracy. Acknowledgments We thank Vinod Nair and Geoffrey Hinton for many helpful discussions. This research was supported by NSERC. References [1] Delbert Dueck and Brendan Frey. Probabilistic sparse matrix factorization. Technical Report PSI TR 2004-023, Dept. of Computer Science, University of Toronto, 2004. [2] Thomas Hofmann. Probabilistic latent semantic analysis. In Proceedings of the 15th Conference on Uncertainty in AI, pages 289?296, San Fransisco, California, 1999. Morgan Kaufmann. [3] Benjamin Marlin. Modeling user rating profiles for collaborative filtering. Lawrence K. Saul, and Bernhard Sch?olkopf, editors, NIPS. MIT Press, 2003. In Sebastian Thrun, [4] Benjamin Marlin and Richard S. Zemel. The multiple multiplicative factor model for collaborative filtering. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twenty-first International Conference (ICML 2004), Banff, Alberta, Canada, July 4-8, 2004. ACM, 2004. [5] Radford M. Neal. Probabilistic inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Technical Report CRG-TR-93-1, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, September 1993. [6] S. J. Nowlan and G. E. Hinton. Simplifying neural networks by soft weight-sharing. Neural Computation, 4:473?493, 1992. [7] Jason D. M. Rennie and Nathan Srebro. Fast maximum margin matrix factorization for collaborative prediction. In Luc De Raedt and Stefan Wrobel, editors, Machine Learning, Proceedings of the TwentySecond International Conference (ICML 2005), Bonn, Germany, August 7-11, 2005, pages 713?719. ACM, 2005. [8] Ruslan Salakhutdinov, Andriy Mnih, and Geoffrey Hinton. Restricted Boltzmann machines for collaborative filtering. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twenty-fourth International Conference (ICML 2004). ACM, 2007. [9] Nathan Srebro and Tommi Jaakkola. Weighted low-rank approximations. In Tom Fawcett and Nina Mishra, editors, Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 720?727. AAAI Press, 2003. [10] Nathan Srebro, Jason D. M. Rennie, and Tommi Jaakkola. Maximum-margin matrix factorization. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2004. [11] Michael E. Tipping and Christopher M. Bishop. Probabilistic principal component analysis. Technical Report NCRG/97/010, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University, September 1997. [12] Max Welling, Michal Rosen-Zvi, and Geoffrey Hinton. Exponential family harmoniums with an application to information retrieval. In NIPS 17, pages 1481?1488, Cambridge, MA, 2005. MIT Press. 8
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On Higher-Order Perceptron Algorithms ? Cristian Brotto DICOM, Universit`a dell?Insubria Claudio Gentile DICOM, Universit`a dell?Insubria [email protected] [email protected] Fabio Vitale DICOM, Universit`a dell?Insubria [email protected] Abstract A new algorithm for on-line learning linear-threshold functions is proposed which efficiently combines second-order statistics about the data with the ?logarithmic behavior? of multiplicative/dual-norm algorithms. An initial theoretical analysis is provided suggesting that our algorithm might be viewed as a standard Perceptron algorithm operating on a transformed sequence of examples with improved margin properties. We also report on experiments carried out on datasets from diverse domains, with the goal of comparing to known Perceptron algorithms (first-order, second-order, additive, multiplicative). Our learning procedure seems to generalize quite well, and converges faster than the corresponding multiplicative baseline algorithms. 1 Introduction and preliminaries The problem of on-line learning linear-threshold functions from labeled data is one which have spurred a substantial amount of research in Machine Learning. The relevance of this task from both the theoretical and the practical point of view is widely recognized: On the one hand, linear functions combine flexiblity with analytical and computational tractability, on the other hand, online algorithms provide efficient methods for processing massive amounts of data. Moreover, the widespread use of kernel methods in Machine Learning (e.g., [24]) have greatly improved the scope of this learning technology, thereby increasing even further the general attention towards the specific task of incremental learning (generalized) linear functions. Many models/algorithms have been proposed in the literature (stochastic, adversarial, noisy, etc.) : Any list of references would not do justice of the existing work on this subject. In this paper, we are interested in the problem of online learning linear-threshold functions from adversarially generated examples. We introduce a new family of algorithms, collectively called the Higher-order Perceptron algorithm (where ?higher? means here ?higher than one?, i.e., ?higher than first-order? descent algorithms such as gradientdescent or standard Perceptron-like algorithms?). Contrary to other higher-order algorithms, such as the ridge regression-like algorithms considered in, e.g., [4, 7], Higher-order Perceptron has the ability to put together in a principled and flexible manner second-order statistics about the data with the ?logarithmic behavior? of multiplicative/dual-norm algorithms (e.g., [18, 19, 6, 13, 15, 20]). Our algorithm exploits a simplified form of the inverse data matrix, lending itself to be easily combined with the dual norms machinery introduced by [13] (see also [12, 23]). As we will see, this has also computational advantages, allowing us to formulate an efficient (subquadratic) implementation. Our contribution is twofold. First, we provide an initial theoretical analysis suggesting that our algorithm might be seen as a standard Perceptron algorithm [21] operating on a transformed sequence of examples with improved margin properties. The same analysis also suggests a simple (but principled) way of switching on the fly between higher-order and first-order updates. This is ? The authors gratefully acknowledge partial support by the PASCAL Network of Excellence under EC grant n. 506778. This publication only reflects the authors? views. especially convenient when we deal with kernel functions, a major concern being the sparsity of the computed solution. The second contribution of this paper is an experimental investigation of our algorithm on artificial and real-world datasets from various domains: We compared Higher-order Perceptron to baseline Perceptron algorithms, like the Second-order Perceptron algorithm defined in [7] and the standard (p-norm) Perceptron algorithm, as in [13, 12]. We found in our experiments that Higher-order Perceptron generalizes quite well. Among our experimental findings are the following: 1) Higher-order Perceptron is always outperforming the corresponding multiplicative (p-norm) baseline (thus the stored data matrix is always beneficial in terms of convergence speed); 2) When dealing with Euclidean norms (p = 2), the comparison to Second-order Perceptron is less clear and depends on the specific task at hand. Learning protocol and notation. Our algorithm works in the well-known mistake bound model of on-line learning, as introduced in [18, 2], and further investigated by many authors (e.g., [19, 6, 13, 15, 7, 20, 23] and references therein). Prediction proceeds in a sequence of trials. In each trial t = 1, 2, . . . the prediction algorithm is given an instance vector in Rn (for simplicity, all vectors are normalized, i.e., ||xt || = 1, where || ? || is the Euclidean norm unless otherwise specified), and then guesses the binary label yt ? {?1, 1} associated with xt . We denote the algorithm?s prediction by ybt ? {?1, 1}. Then the true label yt is disclosed. In the case when ybt 6= yt we say that the algorithm has made a prediction mistake. We call an example a pair (xt , yt ), and a sequence of examples S any sequence S = (x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), . . . , (xT , yT ). In this paper, we are competing against the class of linear-threshold predictors, parametrized by normal vectors u ? {v ? Rn : ||v|| = 1}. In this case, a common way of measuring the (relative) prediction performance of an algorithm A is to compare the total number of mistakes of A on S to some measure of the linear separability of S. One such measure (e.g., [24]) is the cumulative hinge-loss (or soft-margin) D? (u; S) of S w.r.t. a PT linear classifier u at a given margin value ? > 0: D? (u; S) = t=1 max{0, ? ? yt u> xt } (observe that D? (u; S) vanishes if and only if u separates S with margin at least ?. A mistake-driven algorithm A is one which updates its internal state only upon mistakes. One can therefore associate with the run of A on S a subsequence M = M(S, A) ? {1, . . . , T } of mistaken trials. Now, the standard analysis of these algorithms allows us to restrict the behavior of the comparison class to mistaken trialsPonly and, as a consequence, to refine D? (u; S) so as to include only trials in M: D? (u; S) = t?M max{0, ? ? yt u> xt }. This gives bounds on A?s performance relative to the best u over a sequence of examples produced (or, actually, selected) by A during its on-line functioning. Our analysis in Section 3 goes one step further: the number of mistakes of A on S is contrasted to the cumulative hinge loss of the best u on a transformed sequence S? = ((? xi1 , yi1 ), (? xi2 , yi2 ), . . . , (? xim , yim )), where each instance xik gets transformed ? ik through a mapping depending only on the past behavior of the algorithm (i.e., only on into x examples up to trial t = ik?1 ). As we will see in Section 3, this new sequence S? tends to be ?more separable? than the original sequence, in the sense that if S is linearly separable with some margin, then the transformed sequence S? is likely to be separable with a larger margin. 2 The Higher-order Perceptron algorithm The algorithm (described in Figure 1) takes as input a sequence of nonnegative parameters ?1 , ?2 , ..., and maintains a product matrix Bk (initialized to the identity matrix I) and a sum vector v k (initialized to 0). Both of them are indexed by k, a counter storing the current number of mistakes (plus one). Upon receiving the t-th normalized instance vector xt ? Rn , the algorithm computes its binary prediction value ybt as the sign of the inner product between vector Bk?1 v k?1 and vector Bk?1 xt . If ybt 6= yt then matrix Bk?1 is updates multiplicatively as Bk = Bk?1 (I ? ?k xt x> t ) while vector v k?1 is updated additively through the standard Perceptron rule v k = v k?1 + yt xt . The new matrix Bk and the new vector v k will be used in the next trial. If ybt = yt no update is performed (hence the algorithm is mistake driven). Observe that ?k = 0 for any k makes this algorithm degenerate into the standard Perceptron algorithm [21]. Moreover, one can easily see that, in order to let this algorithm exploit the information collected in the matrix BP (and let the algorithm?s ? behavior be substantially different from Perceptron?s) we need to ensure k=1 ?k = ?. In the sequel, our standard choice will be ?k = c/k, with c ? (0, 1). See Sections 3 and 4. Implementing Higher-Order Perceptron can be done in many ways. Below, we quickly describe three of them, each one having its own merits. 1) Primal version. We store and update an n?n matrix Ak = Bk> Bk and an n-dimensional column Parameters: ?1 , ?2 , ... ? [0, 1). Initialization: B0 = I; v 0 = 0; k = 1. Repeat for t = 1, 2, . . . , T : 1. Get instance xt ? Rn , ||xt || = 1; > 2. Predict ybt = SGN(w> k?1 xt ) ? {?1, +1}, where w k?1 = Bk?1 Bk?1 v k?1 ; 3. Get label yt ? {?1, +1}; v k = v k?1 + yt xt 4. if ybt 6= yt then: Bk k = Bk?1 (I ? ?k xt x> t ) ? k + 1. Figure 1: The Higher-order Perceptron algorithm (for p = 2). vector v k . Matrix Ak is updated as Ak = Ak?1 ? ?Ak?1 xx> ? ?xx> Ak?1 + ?2 (x> Ak?1 x)xx> , taking O(n2 ) operations, while v k is updated as in Figure 1. Computing the algorithm?s margin v > Ax can then be carried out in time quadratic in the dimension n of the input space. 2) Dual version. This implementation allows us the use of kernel functions (e.g., [24]). Let us denote by Xk the n ? k matrix whose columns are the n-dimensional instance vectors x1 , ..., xk where a mistake occurred so far, and y k be the k-dimensional column vector of the corresponding (k) labels. We store and update the k ? k matrix Dk = [di,j ]ki,j=1 , the k ? k diagonal matrix Hk = (k) (k) hk = (h1 , ..., hk )> = Xk> Xk y k , and the k-dimensional column vector g k = y k + Dk Hk 1k , being 1k a vector of k ones. If we interpret the primal matrix Ak above as Ak = Pk (k) > > > I + i,j=1 di,j xi x> j , it is not hard to show that the margin value w k?1 x is equal to g k?1 Xk?1 x, and can be computed through O(k) extra inner products. Now, on the k-th mistake, vector g can be updated with O(k 2 ) extra inner products by updating D and H in the following way. We let 1 D  0 and H0 be emptymatrices. Then, given Dk?1 and Hk?1 = DIAG{hk?1 }, we have Dk = Dk?1 ??k bk (k) > 2 , where bk = Dk?1 Xk?1 xk , and dk,k = ?2k x> (k) k Xk?1 bk ? 2?k + ?k . On ??k b> dk,k k DIAG {hk }, the other hand, Hk = DIAG {hk?1 (k) (k) > > + yk Xk?1 xk , hk }, with hk = y > k?1 Xk?1 xk + yk . Observe that on trials when ?k = 0 matrix Dk?1 is padded with a zero row and a zero column. Pk (k) This amounts to say that matrix Ak = I + i,j=1 di,j xi x> j , is not updated, i.e., Ak = Ak?1 . A closer look at the above update mechanism allows us to conclude that the overall extra inner products needed to compute g k is actually quadratic only in the number of past mistaken trials having ?k > 0. This turns out to be especially important when using a sparse version of our algorithm which, on a mistaken trial, decides whether to update both B and v or just v (see Section 4). 3) Implicit primal version and the dual norms algorithm. This is based on the simple observation that for any vector z we can compute Bk z by unwrapping Bk as in Bk z = Bk?1 (I ? ?xx> )z = Bk?1 z 0 , where vector z 0 = (z ? ?x x> z) can be calculated in time O(n). Thus computing > the margin v > Bk?1 Bk?1 x actually takes O(nk). Maintaining this implicit representation for the product matrix B can be convenient when an efficient dual version is likely to be unavailable, as is the case for the multiplicative (or, more generally, dual norms) extension of our algorithm. We recall that a multiplicative algorithm is useful when learning sparse target hyperplanes (e.g., [18, 15, 3, 12, 11, 20]). We obtain a dual norms algorithm by introducing a norm parameter p ? 2, and the associated gradient mapping2 g : ? ? Rn ? ?? ||?||2p / 2 ? Rn . Then, in Figure 1, we > normalize instance vectors xt w.r.t. the p-norm, we define wk?1 = Bk?1 g(Bk?1 v k?1 ), and gen> eralize the matrix update as Bk = Bk?1 (I ? ?k xt g(xt ) ). As we will see, the resulting algorithm combines the multiplicative behavior of the p-norm algorithms with the ?second-order? information contained in the matrix Bk . One can easily see that the above-mentioned argument for computing the margin g(Bk?1 v k?1 )> Bk?1 x in time O(nk) still holds. 1 Observe that, by construction, Dk is a symmetric matrix. This mapping has also been used in [12, 11]. Recall that setting p = O(log n) yields an algorithm similar to Winnow [18]. Also, notice that p = 2 yields g = identity. 2 3 Analysis We express the performance of the Higher-order Perceptron algorithm in terms of the hinge-loss behavior of the best linear classifier over the transformed sequence S? = (B0 xt(1) , yt(1) ), (B1 xt(2) , yt(2) ), (B2 xt(3) , yt(3) ), . . . , (1) being t(k) the trial where the k-th mistake occurs, and Bk the k-th matrix produced by the algorithm. Observe that each feature vector xt(k) gets transformed by a matrix Bk depending on past examples only. This is relevant to the argument that S? tends to have a larger margin than the original sequence (see the discussion at the end of this section). This neat ?on-line structure? does not seem to be shared by other competing higher-order algorithms, such as the ?ridge regression-like? algorithms considered, e.g., in [25, 4, 7, 23]. For the sake of simplicity, we state the theorem below only in the case p = 2. A more general statement holds when p ? 2. Theorem 1 Let the Higher-order Perceptron algorithm in Figure 1 be run on a sequence of examples S = (x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), . . . , (xT , yT ). Let the sequence of parameters ?k satisfy 0 ? ?k ? 1?c , where xt is the k-th mistaken instance vector, and c ? (0, 1]. Then the total number m 1+|v > k?1 xt | s of mistakes satisfies3 2 ? D? (u; Sc )) ? ? D? (u; S?c )) ?2 m?? + 2+ ? + 2, (2) ? 2? ? ? 4? holding for any ? > 0 and any unit norm vector u ? Rn , where ? = ?(c) = (2 ? c)/c. Proof. The analysis deliberately mimics the standard Perceptron convergence analysis [21]. We fix an arbitrary sequence S = (x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), . . . , (xT , yT ) and let M ? {1, 2, . . . , T } be the set of trials where the algorithm in Figure 1 made a mistake. Let t = t(k) be the trial where the k-th mistake occurred. We study the evolution of ||Bk v k ||2 over mistaken trials. Notice that the matrix Bk> Bk is positive semidefinite for any k. We can write 2 ||Bk v k ||2 = ||Bk?1 (I ? ?k xt x> t ) (v k?1 + yt xt ) || (from the update rule v k = v k?1 + yt xt and Bk = Bk?1 (I ? ?k xt x> t )) = ||Bk?1 v k?1 + yt (1 ? ?k yt v k?1 xt ? ?k )Bk?1 xt ||2 2 = ||Bk?1 v k?1 || + > 2 yt rk v > k?1 Bk?1 Bk?1 xt + (using ||xt || = 1) rk2 ||Bk?1 xt ||2 , where we set for brevity rk = 1 ? ?k yt v k?1 xt ? ?k . We proceed by upper and lower bounding the above chain of equalities. To this end, we need to ensure rk ? 0. Observe that yt v k?1 xt ? 0 implies rk ? 0 if and only if ?k ? 1/(1 + yt v k?1 xt ). On the other hand, if yt v k?1 xt < 0 then, in order for rk to be nonnegative, it suffices to pick ?k ? 1. In both cases ?k ? (1 ? c)/(1 + |v k?1 xt |) implies > rk ? c > 0, and also rk2 ? (1+?k |v k?1 xt |??k )2 ? (2?c)2 . Now, using yt v > k?1 Bk?1 Bk?1 xt ? 0 2 2 2 (combined with rk ? 0), we conclude that ||Bk v k || ? ||Bk?1 v k?1 || ? (2 ? c) ||Bk?1 xt ||2 = > 4 (2 ? c)2 x> t Ak?1 xt , where we set Ak = Bk Bk . A simple (and crude) upper bound on the last > term follows by observing that ||xt || = 1 implies xt Ak?1 xt ? ||Ak?1 ||, the spectral norm (largest eigenvalue) of Ak?1 . Since a factor matrix of the form (I ? ? xx> ) with ? ? 1 and ||x|| = 1 has Qk?1 > 2 spectral norm one, we have x> t Ak?1 xt ? ||Ak?1 || ? i=1 ||I ? ?i xt(i) xt(i) || ? 1. Therefore, summing over k = 1, . . . , m = |M| (or, equivalently, over t ? M) and using v 0 = 0 yields the upper bound ||Bm v m ||2 ? (2 ? c)2 m. (3) To find a lower bound of the left-hand side of (3), we first pick any unit norm vector u ? Rn , and apply the standard Cauchy-Schwartz inequality: ||Bm v m || ? u> Bm v m . Then, we observe that for a generic trial t = t(k) the update rule of our algorithm allows us to write u> Bk v k ? u> Bk?1 v k?1 = rk yt u> Bk?1 xt ? rk (? ? max{0, ? ? yt u> Bk?1 xt }), where the last inequality follows from rk ? 0 and holds for any margin value ? > 0. We sum 3 The subscript c in S?c emphasizes the dependence of the transformed sequence on the choice of c. Note that in the special case c = 1 we have ?k = 0 for any k and ? = 1, thereby recovering the standard Perceptron bound for nonseparable sequences (see, e.g., [12]). 4 A slightly more refined bound can be derived which depends on the trace of matrices I ? Ak . Details will be given in the full version of this paper. the above over k = 1, . . . , m and exploit c ? rk ? 2 ? c after rearranging terms. This gets ||Bm v m || ? u> Bm v m ? c ? m ? (2 ? c)D? (u; S?c ). Combining with (3) and solving for m gives the claimed bound.  From the above result one can see that our algorithm might be viewed as a standard Perceptron algorithm operating on the transformed sequence S?c in (1). We now give a qualitative argument, which is suggestive of the improved margin properties of S?c . Assume for simplicity that all examples (xt , yt ) in the original sequence are correctly classified by hyperplane u with the same margin ? = yt u> xt > 0, where t = t(k). According to Theorem 1, the parameters ?1 , ?2 , . . . should be small positive numbers. Assume, again for simplicity, that all ?k are set to the same small enough Qk value ? > 0. Then, up to first order, matrix Bk = i=1 (I ? ? xt(i) x> t(i) ) can be approximated as Pk > Bk ' I ? ? i=1 xt(i) xt(i) . Then, to the extent that the above approximation holds, we can write:5   Pk?1 Pk?1 > yt u> Bk?1 xt = yt u> I ? ? i=1 xt(i) x> I ? ? i=1 yt(i) xt(i) yt(i) x> t(i) xt = yt u t(i) xt = yt u> xt ? ? yt Pk?1 i=1  > yt(i) u> xt(i) yt(i) x> t(i) xt = ? ? ? ? yt v k?1 xt . Now, yt v > k?1 xt is the margin of the (first-order) Perceptron vector v k?1 over a mistaken trial for the Higher-order Perceptron vector wk?1 . Since the two vectors v k?1 and wk?1 are correlated > > 2 (recall that v > k?1 w k?1 = v k?1 Bk?1 Bk?1 v k?1 = ||Bk?1 v k?1 || ? 0) the mistaken condition > > yt wk?1 xt ? 0 is more likely to imply yt v k?1 xt ? 0 than the opposite. This tends to yield a margin larger than the original margin ?. As we mentioned in Section 2, this is also advantageous from a computational standpoint, since in those cases the matrix update Bk?1 ? Bk might be skipped (this is equivalent to setting ?k = 0), still Theorem 1 would hold. Though the above might be the starting point of a more thorough theoretical understanding of the margin properties of our algorithm, in this paper we prefer to stop early and leave any further investigation to collecting experimental evidence. 4 Experiments We tested the empirical performance of our algorithm by conducting a number of experiments on a collection of datasets, both artificial and real-world from diverse domains (Optical Character Recognition, text categorization, DNA microarrays). The main goal of these experiments was to compare Higher-order Perceptron (with both p = 2 and p > 2) to known Perceptron-like algorithms, such as first-order [21] and second-order Perceptron [7], in terms of training accuracy (i.e., convergence speed) and test set accuracy. The results are contained in Tables 1, 2, 3, and in Figure 2. Task 1: DNA microarrays and artificial data. The goal here was to test the convergence properties of our algorithms on sparse target learning tasks. We first tested on a couple of well-known DNA microarray datasets. For each dataset, we first generated a number of random training/test splits (our random splits also included random permutations of the training set). The reported results are averaged over these random splits. The two DNA datasets are: i. The ER+/ER? dataset from [14]. Here the task is to analyze expression profiles of breast cancer and classify breast tumors according to ER (Estrogen Receptor) status. This dataset (which we call the ?Breast? dataset) contains 58 expression profiles concerning 3389 genes. We randomly split 1000 times into a training set of size 47 and a test set of size 11. ii. The ?Lymphoma? dataset [1]. Here the goal is to separate cancerous and normal tissues in a large B-Cell lymphoma problem. The dataset contains 96 expression profiles concerning 4026 genes. We randomly split the dataset into a training set of size 60 and a test set of size 36. Again, the random split was performed 1000 times. On both datasets, the tested algorithms have been run by cycling 5 times over the current training set. No kernel functions have been used. We also artificially generated two (moderately) sparse learning problems with margin ? ? 0.005 at labeling noise levels ? = 0.0 (linearly separable) and ? = 0.1, respectively. The datasets have been generated at random by first generating two (normalized) target vectors u ? {?1, 0, +1}500 , where the first 50 components are selected independently at random in {?1, +1} and the remaining 450 5 Again, a similar argument holds in the more general setting p ? 2. The reader should notice how important the dependence of Bk on the past is to this argument. components are 0. Then we set ? = 0.0 for the first target and ? = 0.1 for the second one and, corresponding to each of the two settings, we randomly generated 1000 training examples and 1000 test examples. The instance vectors are chosen at random from [?1, +1]500 and then normalized. If u ? xt ? ? then a +1 label is associated with xt . If u ? xt ? ?? then a ?1 label is associated with xt . The labels so obtained are flipped with probability ?. If |u ? xt | < ? then xt is rejected and a new vector xt is drawn. We call the two datasets ?Artificial 0.0 ? and ?Artificial 0.1 ?. We tested our algorithms by training over an increasing number of epochs and checking the evolution of the corresponding test set accuracy. Again, no kernel functions have been used. Task 2: Text categorization. The text categorization datasets are derived from the first 20,000 newswire stories in the Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1, [22]). A standard TF - IDF bag-of-words encoding was used to transform each news story into a normalized vector of real attributes. We built four binary classification problems by ?binarizing? consecutive news stories against the four target categories 70, 101, 4, and 59. These are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th most frequent6 categories, respectively, within the first 20,000 news stories of RCV1. We call these datasets RCV1x , where x = 70, 101, 4, 59. Each dataset was split into a training set of size 10,000 and a test set of the same size. All algorithms have been trained for a single epoch. We initially tried polynomial kernels, then realized that kernel functions did not significantly alter our conclusions on this task. Thus the reported results refer to algorithms with no kernel functions. Task 3: Optical character recognition (OCR). We used two well-known OCR benchmarks: the USPS dataset and the MNIST dataset [16] and followed standard experimental setups, such as the one in [9], including the one-versus-rest scheme for reducing a multiclass problem to a set of binary tasks. We used for each algorithm the standard Gaussian and polynomial kernels, with parameters chosen via 5-fold cross validation on the training set across standard ranges. Again, all algorithms have been trained for a single epoch over the training set. The results in Table 3 only refer to the best parameter settings for each kernel. Algorithms. We implemented the standard Perceptron algorithm (with and without kernels), the Second-order Perceptron algorithm, as described in [7] (with and without kernels), and our Higherorder Perceptron algorithm. The implementation of the latter algorithm (for both p = 2 and p > 2) was ?implicit primal? when tested on the sparse learning tasks, and in dual variables for the other two tasks. When using Second-order Perceptron, we set its parameter a (see [7] for details) by testing on a generous range of values. For brevity, only the settings achieving the best results are reported. On the sparse learning tasks we tried Higher-order Perceptron with norm p = 2, 4, 7, 10, while on the other two tasks we set p = 2. In any case, for each value of p, we set7 ?k = c/k, with c = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8. Since c = 0 corresponds to a standard p-norm Perceptron algorithm [13, 12] we tried to emphasize the comparison c = 0 vs. c > 0. Finally, when using kernels on the OCR tasks, we also compared to a sparse dual version of Higher-order Perceptron. On a mistaken round t = t(k), this algorithm sets ?k = c/k if yt v k?1 xt ? 0, and ?k = 0 otherwise (thus, when yt v k?1 xt < 0 the matrix Bk?1 is not updated). For the sake of brevity, the standard Perceptron algorithm is called FO (?First Order?), the Second-order algorithm is denoted by SO (?Second Order?), while the Higher-order algorithm with norm parameter p and ?k = c/k is abbreviated as HOp (c). Thus, for instance, FO = HO2 (0). Results and conclusions. Our Higher-order Perceptron algorithm seems to deliver interesting results. In all our experiments HOp (c) with c > 0 outperforms HOp (0). On the other hand, the comparison HOp (c) vs. SO depends on the specific task. On the DNA datasets, HOp (c) with c > 0 is clearly superior in Breast. On Lymphoma, HOp (c) gets worse as p increases. This is a good indication that, in general, a multiplicative algorithm is not suitable for this dataset. In any case, HO2 turns out to be only slightly worse than SO. On the artificial datasets HOp (c) with c > 0 is always better than the corresponding p-norm Perceptron algorithm. On the text categorization tasks, HO2 tends to perform better than SO. On USPS, HO2 is superior to the other competitors, while on MNIST it performs similarly when combined with Gaussian kernels (though it turns out to be relatively sparser), while it is slightly inferior to SO when using polynomial kernels. The sparse version of HO2 cuts the matrix updates roughly by half, still maintaining a good performance. In all cases HO2 (either sparse or not) significantly outperforms FO. In conclusion, the Higher-order Perceptron algorithm is an interesting tool for on-line binary clas6 7 We did not use the most frequent category because of its significant overlap with the other ones. Notice that this setting fulfills the condition on ?k stated in Theorem 1. Table 1: Training and test error on the two datasets ?Breast? and ?Lymphoma?. Training error is the average total number of updates over 5 training epochs, while test error is the average fraction of misclassified patterns in the test set, The results refer to the same training/test splits. For each algorithm, only the best setting is shown (best training and best test setting coincided in these experiments). Thus, for instance, HO2 differs from FO because of the c parameter. We emphasized the comparison HO7 (0) vs. HO7 (c) with best c among the tested values. According to Wilcoxon signed rank test, an error difference of 0.5% or larger might be considered significant. In bold are the smallest figures achieved on each row of the table. TRAIN TEST TRAIN TEST LYMPHOMA FO HO 2 HO 4 HO 7 (0) HO 7 HO 10 SO 45.2 23.4% 22.1 11.8% 21.7 16.4% 19.6 10.0% 24.5 13.3% 18.9 10.0% 47.4 15.7% 23.0 11.5% 24.5 12.0% 20.0 11.5% 32.4 13.5 23.1 11.9% 29.6 15.0% 19.3 9.6% FO = HO 2(0.0) Training updates vs training epochs on Artificial 0.0 SO # of training updates 800 * HO 4(0.4) 600 HO 7(0.0) * 400 300 * * * * * SO 2400 HO 2(0.4) 700 500 HO 7 (0.4) * 2000 * 1200 400 2 3 5 10 15 20 * 1 * * 2 3 * Test error rates * * * (a = 0.2) HO 2(0.4) HO 4(0.4) * * * * HO 7(0.0) HO 7 (0.4) 14% Test error rates (minus 10%) FO = HO 2(0.0) SO 18% 5 22% 10 20 15 20 FO = HO 2(0.0) * * * * * * * * (a = 0.2) HO 2(0.4) HO 4(0.4) HO 7(0.0) 14% HO 7 (0.4) 6% # of training epochs 15 18% 10% 5 10 SO 26% 6% 2 3 HO 7(0.0) HO 7(0.4) Test error rates vs training epochs on Artificial 0.1 10% 1 * # of training epochs Test error rates vs training epochs on Artificial 0.0 22% * * # of training epochs 26% (a = 0.2) HO 2(0.4) HO 4(0.4) 1600 800 * 1 FO = HO 2(0.0) Training updates vs training epochs on Artificial 0.1 (a = 0.2) # of training updates B REAST 1 2 3 5 10 15 20 # of training epochs Figure 2: Experiments on the two artificial datasets (Artificial0.0 , on the left, and Artificial0.1 , on the right). The plots give training and test behavior as a function of the number of training epochs. Notice that the test set in Artificial0.1 is affected by labelling noise of rate 10%. Hence, a visual comparison between the two plots at the bottom can only be made once we shift down the y-axis of the noisy plot by 10%. On the other hand, the two training plots (top) are not readily comparable. The reader might have difficulty telling apart the two kinds of algorithms HOp (0.0) and HOp (c) with c > 0. In practice, the latter turned out to be always slightly superior in performance to the former. sification, having the ability to combine multiplicative (or nonadditive) and second-order behavior into a single inference procedure. Like other algorithms, HOp can be extended (details omitted due to space limitations) in several ways through known worst-case learning technologies, such as large margin (e.g., [17, 11]), label-efficient/active learning (e.g., [5, 8]), and bounded memory (e.g., [10]). 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Table 2: Experimental results on the four binary classification tasks derived from RCV1. ?Train? denotes the number of training corrections, while ?Test? gives the fraction of misclassified patterns in the test set. Only the results corresponding to the best test set accuracy are shown. In bold are the smallest figures achieved for each of the 8 combinations of dataset (RCV1x , x = 70, 101, 4, 59) and phase (training or test). FO TRAIN TEST 993 673 803 767 7.20% 6.39% 6.14% 6.45% RCV170 RCV1101 RCV14 RCV159 HO 2 TRAIN TEST 941 665 783 762 6.83% 5.81% 5.94% 6.04% SO TRAIN TEST 880 677 819 760 6.95% 5.48% 6.05% 6.84% Table 3: Experimental results on the OCR tasks. ?Train? denotes the total number of training corrections, summed over the 10 categories, while ?Test? denotes the fraction of misclassified patterns in the test set. Only the results corresponding to the best test set accuracy are shown. For the sparse version of HO2 we also reported (in parentheses) the number of matrix updates during training. In bold are the smallest figures achieved for each of the 8 combinations of dataset (USPS or MNIST), kernel type (Gaussian or Polynomial), and phase (training or test). FO U SPS M NIST G AUSS P OLY G AUSS P OLY TRAIN TEST 1385 1609 5834 8148 6.53% 7.37% 2.10% 3.04% HO 2 TRAIN TEST 945 1090 5351 6404 4.76% 5.71% 1.79% 2.27% Sparse HO2 SO TRAIN TEST TRAIN TEST 965 (440) 1081 (551) 5363 (2596) 6476 (3311) 5.13% 5.52% 1.81% 2.28% 1003 1054 5684 6440 5.05% 5.53% 1.82% 2.03% [7] N. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Conconi & C. Gentile (2005). A second-order perceptron algorithm. SIAM Journal of Computing, 34(3), 640?668. [8] N. Cesa-Bianchi, C. Gentile, & L. Zaniboni (2006). Worst-case analysis of selective sampling for linearthreshold algorithms. JMLR, 7, 1205?1230. [9] C. Cortes & V. Vapnik (1995). Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, 20(3), 273?297. [10] O. Dekel, S. Shalev-Shwartz, & Y. 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The relaxed online maximum margin algorithm. Machine Learning, 46(1-3), 361?387. [18] N. Littlestone (1988). Learning quickly when irrelevant attributes abound: a new linear-threshold algorithm. Machine Learning, 2(4), 285?318. [19] N. Littlestone & M.K. Warmuth (1994). The weighted majority algorithm. Information and Computation, 108(2), 212?261. [20] P. Long & X. Wu (2004). Mistake bounds for maximum entropy discrimination. NIPS 2004. [21] A.B.J. Novikov (1962). On convergence proofs on perceptrons. Proc. of the Symposium on the Mathematical Theory of Automata, vol. XII, pp. 615?622. [22] Reuters: 2000. http://about.reuters.com/researchandstandards/corpus/. [23] S. Shalev-Shwartz & Y. Singer (2006). Online Learning Meets Optimization in the Dual. COLT 2006, pp. 423?437. [24] B. Schoelkopf & A. Smola (2002). Learning with kernels. MIT Press. [25] Vovk, V. (2001). Competitive on-line statistics. International Statistical Review, 69, 213-248.
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Adaptive Range Coding Bruce E. Rosen, James M. Goodwin, and Jacques J. Vidal Distributed Machine Intelligence Laboratory Computer Science Department University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90024 Abstract This paper examines a class of neuron based learning systems for dynamic control that rely on adaptive range coding of sensor inputs. Sensors are assumed to provide binary coded range vectors that coarsely describe the system state. These vectors are input to neuron-like processing elements. Output decisions generated by these "neurons" in turn affect the system state, subsequently producing new inputs. Reinforcement signals from the environment are received at various intervals and evaluated. The neural weights as well as the ran g e b 0 u n dar i e s determining the output decisions are then altered with the goal of maximizing future reinforcement from the environment. Preliminary experiments show the promise of adapting "neural receptive fields" when learning dynamical control. The observed performance with this method exceeds that of earlier approaches. 486 Adaptive Range Coding 1 INTRODUCTION A major criticism of unsupervised learning and control techniques such as those used by Barto et al. (Barto t 1983) and by Albus (Albus t 1981) is the need for a priori selection of region sizes for range coding. Range coding in principle generalizes inputs and reduces computational and storage overhead t but the boundary partitioningt determined a priori t is often non-optimal (for example t the ranges described in (Barto t 1983) differ from those used in (Barto 1982) for the same control task differ). Determination of nearly optimal t or at least adequate t regions is left as an additional task that would require that the system dynamics be analyzed t which is not always possible. To address this problem t we move region boundaries adaptively t progressively altering the initial partitioning to a more appropriate representation with no need for a priori knowledge. Unlike previous work (Michie t 1968)t (Barto t 1983)t (Anderson t 1982) which used fixed coderS t this approach produces adaptive coders that contract and expand regions/ranges. During adaptation t frequently active regions/ranges contract t reducing the number of situations in which they will be activated, and increasing the chances that neighboring regions will receive input instead. This class of self-organization is discussed in Kohonen (Kohonen t 1984)t (Ritter t 1986 t 1988). The resulting self-organizing mapping will tend to track the environmental input probability density function. Adaptive range coding creates a focusing mechanism. Resources are distributed according to regional activity level. More resources can be allocated to critical areas of the state space. Concentrated activity is more finely discriminated and corresponding control decisions are more finely tuned. Dynamic shaping of the region boundaries can be achieved without sacrificing memory or learning speed. Also t since the region boundaries are finally determined solely by the environmental dynamics t optimal a priori ranges and regIOn specifications are not necessary. As an example t consider a one dimensional state space t as shown in figures 1a and 1b. It is is partitioned into three regions by the vertical lines shown. The heavy curve indicates a theoretical optimal control surface (unknown a priori) of a state space which the weight in each region should approximate. The dashed horizontal lines show the best learned weight values for the 487 488 Rosen, Goodwin, and Vidal respective partitionings. Weight values approximate the mean value of the true control surface weight in each of the regions. Weight Weight state space Figure 1a Even Region Partition state space Figure 1b Adapted Region Partition An evenly partitioned space produces the weights shown in figure 1a. Figure 1b shows the regions after the boundaries have been adjusted. and the final weight values. Although the weights in both 1a and 1b reflect the mean of the true control surface (in their respective regions). adaptive partitioning is able to represent the ideal surface with a smaller mean squared error. 2 ADAPTIVE RANGE CODING RULE For the more general n dimensional control problem using adaptive range boundaries. the shape of each region can change from an initial n dimensional prism to an n dimensional polytope. The polytope shape is determined by the current activation state and its average activity. The heuristic for our adaptive range coding is to move each region vertex towards or away from the current activation state according to the rei nf0 r c e men t. The equation which adjusts each regIOn boundary is adapted in part from the weight alteration formula used by Kohonen's topological mapping (Kohonen 1984). Each region (i) consists of 2n vertices (V ij<t). 1 ~ j ~ 2n) describing that region's boundaries that move toward or away from the current state activity (ACt? depending on the reinforcement r. V ij(t+1) = Yilt) + K r h(Vij(t) - A(t? w her e K is the gain. r is the reinforcement (or error) used to alter the weight in the region. and hO is a Gaussian or a difference of Gaussians function. [1] Adaptive Range Coding 3 SIMULATION RESULTS In our experiments, the expected reinforcement of the ASE/ACE system ~ (described in (Barto 1983)) was also used as r in [1]. Simple pole balancing (see figure 2) was chosen, rather than the cart-pole balancing task in (Barto 1983). The time step twas chosen to be large (0.05 seconds) and initial region boundaries of 9 and 9? were chosen as (-12,-6,0,1,6,12) and (-00, -10,10,00). All other parameters were identical to those described in (Barto, 1983). Impulse Right ? Impulse Left III Figure 2: The Pole Balancing Task The standard ASE, ASE/ACE, and adaptive range coding algorithms were compared on this task. One hundred runs of each algorithm were performed. Each run consisted of a sequence of trials and each trial counted the number of time steps until the pole fell. If the pole had not fallen after 20,000 time steps, the trial was considered to be successful and it was terminated. Each run was terminated either after 100 trials, or after the pole was successfully balanced in five successive trials. (We assumed that five successive trials indicated that the systems weights and regions had stabilized.) All region weights were initialized to zero at the start of each run. In the adaptive range coding runs, the updated vertex state positions were determined by 3 factors: difference between the vertex and the current state, the expected reinforcement, and the gain. A Gaussian served as an appropriate decay function to modulate vertex movements. Current state to vertex differences served as function input parameters. Outputs attenuated with 489 490 Rosen, Goodwin, and Vidal increasing inputs. and the standard deviation 0' of the Gaussian shaped the decay function. The magnitude and position of each vertex movement were also modulated by the reinforcement ~ (t) which moves the vertex towards or away form the current state. and by K. a gain parameter. The user definable parameter values of K and 0' were initially chosen (arbitrarily) as K = 1 and 0' = 10.0. and were used in the following experiments. Parameters were not fine tuned or optimized. Figure 3 shows the results of the ASE. ASE/ACE. and adaptive range coding experiments. The various runs and trials differed only in the random number generator seed. Corresponding runs and trials using the standard ASE. ASE/ACE and the adaptive range coding algorithm used the same random number seed. All other parameters were identical between the two systems. However. in adaptive range coding. region boundaries were shifted in accordance with [1] during each run. 0/0 Successes 1 Ie % Success 80 60 40 20 0 Associative Search Element (ASE) Critic Element (ACE) Adaptive Range Coding Figure 3: Comparison of the ASE. ASE/ACE. and the Adaptive Range Coding Algorithm. Adaptive Range Coding We simulated 100 runs of the ASE algorithm with zero successful runs. Using the ASE/ACE algorithm, 54 runs were successful. With adaptive range coding algorithm, 84 of the 100 runs were successful. With O'ase/ace = 4.98 and O'adapt_range_code = 3.66, a X2 test showed the two performance sets to be statistically different (p > 0.95). Figure 4 shows a comparison of the average performance values of the 100 ASE/ACE and Adaptive Range Coding (ARC) runs. Pole balancing time is shown as a function of the number of learning trials experienced. Pole Balancing Average Performances 20000 18000 16000 " 14000 ... .' 12000 Run Time 1. . ... .. ... . I'? . . '1 "."" ?? ." ,.- ?' I .' 10000 ............. ..... n. t ? ttlL t:..... ." I 8000 6000 0, I" .1 ? ? .1111- - ASE/ACE " a ARC Et 4000 e 2000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Trial Number Figure 4: Comparison of the ASE/ACE and Adaptive Range Coding learning rates on the cart pole task. Pole balancing time is shown as function of learning trials. Results are averaged over 100 runs. The disparity between the run times of the two different algorithms is due to the comparatively large number of failures of the ASE/ ACE system. Statistical analysis indicates no significant difference in the learning rates or performance levels of the successful runs between categories, leading us to believe that adaptive range coding may lead to an "all or none" 491 492 Rosen, Goodwin, and Vidal behavior, and that there is a mInImum area of the state space that the system must explore to succeed. 4 CONCLUSION The research has shown that neuron-like elements with adjustable regions can dynamically create topological cause and It is effect maps reflecting the control laws of dynamic systems. anticipated from the results of the examples presented above, that adaptive range coding will be more effective than earlier static region approaches in the control of complex systems with unknown dynamics. References J. S. Albus. (1981) Brains, Behavior, and Robotics, NH: McGraw-Hill Byte Books. Peterburough, C. W. Anderson. (1982) Feature generation and Selection by a Layered Network of Reinforcement Learning Elements: Some Initial Experiments, Technical Report COINS 82-12. Amherst, MA: University of Massachusetts, Department of Computer and Information Science. A. Barto, R. Sutton, and C. Anderson. (1982) Neuron-like elements that can solve difficult learning control problems. Coins Tech. Rept. No. 82-20. Amherst, MA: University of Massachusetts, Department of Computer and Information Science. A. G. Barto, R. S. Sutton, and C. W. Anderson. (1983) Neuron-like elements that can solve difficult learning control problems, lEE E Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 13(5): 834-846. T. Kohonen. (1984) Self-Organization New York: Springer-Verlag. D. Michie and R. Chambers. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd. (1968) and Associative Machine Memory, Intelligence H. Ritter and K. Schulten. (1986) Topology Conserving Mappings for Learning Motor Tasks. In J. S. Denker (ed.), Neural Networks for Computing. Snowbird, Utah: AlP. H. Ritter and K. Schulten. (1988) Extending Kohonen's SelfOrganizing Mapping Algorithm to Learn Ballistic Movements. In R. Eckmiller (ed.), Neural Computers. Springer-Verlag.
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Configuration Estimates Improve Pedestrian Finding Duan Tran? U.Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801 USA [email protected] D.A. Forsyth U.Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801 USA [email protected] Abstract Fair discriminative pedestrian finders are now available. In fact, these pedestrian finders make most errors on pedestrians in configurations that are uncommon in the training data, for example, mounting a bicycle. This is undesirable. However, the human configuration can itself be estimated discriminatively using structure learning. We demonstrate a pedestrian finder which first finds the most likely human pose in the window using a discriminative procedure trained with structure learning on a small dataset. We then present features (local histogram of oriented gradient and local PCA of gradient) based on that configuration to an SVM classifier. We show, using the INRIA Person dataset, that estimates of configuration significantly improve the accuracy of a discriminative pedestrian finder. 1 Introduction Very accurate pedestrian detectors are an important technical goal; approximately half-a-million pedestrians are killed by cars each year (1997 figures, in [1]). At relatively low resolution, pedestrians tend to have a characteristic appearance. Generally, one must cope with lateral or frontal views of a walk. In these cases, one will see either a ?lollipop? shape ? the torso is wider than the legs, which are together in the stance phase of the walk ? or a ?scissor? shape ? where the legs are swinging in the walk. This encourages the use of template matching. Early template matchers include: support vector machines applied to a wavelet expansion ([2], and variants described in [3]); a neural network applied to stereoscopic reconstructions [4]; chamfer matching to a hierachy of contour templates [5]; a likelihood threshold applied to a random field model [6]; an SVM applied to spatial wavelets stacked over four frames to give dynamical cues [3]; a cascade architecture applied to spatial averages of temporal differences [7]; and a temporal version of chamfer matching to a hierachy of contour templates [8]. By far one of the most successful static template matcher is due to Dalal and Triggs [9]. Their method is based on a comprehensive study of features and their effects on performance for the pedestrian detection problem. The method that performs best involves a histogram of oriented gradient responses (a HOG descriptor). This is a variant of Lowe?s SIFT feature [10]. Each window is decomposed into overlapping blocks (large spatial domains) of cells (smaller spatial domains).In each block, a histogram of gradient directions (or edge orientations) is computed for each cell with a measure of histogram ?energy?. These cell histograms are concatenated into block histograms followed by normalization which obtains a modicum of illumination invariance. The detection window is tiled with an overlapping grid. Within each block HOG descriptors are computed, and the ? We would like to thank Alexander Sorokin for his providing the annotation software and Pietro Perona for insightful comments. This work was supported by Vietname Education Foundation as well as in part by the National Science Foundation under IIS - 0534837 and in part by the Office of Naval Research under N00014-01-1-0890 as part of the MURI program. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Science Foundation or the Office of Naval Research. resulting feature vector is presented to an SVM. Dalal and Triggs show this method produces no errors on the 709 image MIT dataset of [2]; they describe an expanded dataset of 1805 images. Furthermore, they compare HOG descriptors with the original method of Papageorgiou and Poggio [2]; with an extended version of the Haar wavelets of Mohan et al. [11]; with the PCA-Sift of Ke and Sukthankar ([12]; see also [13]); and with the shape contexts of Belongie et al. [14]. The HOG descriptors outperform all other methods. Recently, Sabzmeydani and Mori [15] reported improved results by using AdaBoost to select shapelet features (triplets of location, direction and strength of local average gradient responses in different directions). A key difficulty with pedestrian detection is that detectors must work on human configurations not often seen in datasets. For systems to be useful, they cannot fail even on configurations that are very uncommon ? it is not acceptable to run people over when they stand on their hands. There is some evidence (figure 1) that less common configurations present real difficulties for very good current pedestrian detectors (our reimplementation of Dalal and Triggs? work [9]). Figure 1. Configuration estimates result in our method producing fewer false negatives than our implementation of Dalal and Triggs does. The figure shows typical images which are incorrectly classified by our implementation of Dalal and Triggs, but correctly classified when a configuration estimate is attached. We conjecture that a configuration estimate can avoid problems with occlusion or contrast failure because the configuration estimate reduces noise and the detector can use lower detection thresholds. 1.1 Configuration and Parts Detecting pedestrians with templates most likely works because pedestrians appear in a relatively limited range of configurations and views (e.g. ?Our HOG detectors cue mainly on silhouette contours (especially the head, shoulders and feet)? [9], p.893). It appears certain that using the architecture of constructing features for whole image windows and then throwing the result into a classifier could be used to build a person-finder for arbitrary configurations and arbitrary views only with a major engineering effort. The set of examples required would be spectacularly large, for example. This is unattractive, because this set of examples implicitly encodes a set of facts that are relatively easy to make explicit. In particular, people are made of body segments which individually have a quite simple structure, and these segments are connected into a kinematic structure which is quite well understood. All this suggests finding people by finding the parts and then reasoning about their layout ? essentially, building templates with complex internal kinematics. The core idea is very old (see the review in [16]) but the details are hard to get right and important novel formulations are a regular feature of the current research literature. Simply identifying the body parts can be hard. Discriminative approaches use classifiers to detect parts, then reason about configuration [11]. Generative approaches compare predictions of part appearance with the image; one can use a tree structured configuration model [17], or an arbitrary graph [18]. If one has a video sequence, part appearance can itself be learned [19, 20]; more recently, Ramanan has shown knowledge of articulation properties gives an appearance model in a single image [21]. Mixed approaches use a discriminative model to identify parts, then a generative model to construct and evaluate assemblies [22, 23, 24]. Codebook approaches avoid explicitly modelling body segments, and instead use unsupervised methods to find part decompositions that are good for recognition (rather than disarticulation) [25]. Our pedestrian detection strategy consists of two steps: first, for each window, we estimate the configuration of the best person available in that window; second, we extract features for that window conditioned on the configuration estimate, and pass these features to a support vector machine classifier, which makes the final decision on the window. Figure 2. This figure is best viewed in color. Our model of human layout is parametrized by seven vertices, shown on an example on the far left. The root is at the hip; the arrows give the direction of conditional dependence. Given a set of features, the extremal model can be identified by dynamic programming on point locations. We compute segment features by placing a box around some vertices (as in the head), or pairs of vertices (as in the torso and leg). Histogram features are then computed for base points referred to the box coordinate frame; the histogram is shifted by the orientation of the box axis (section 3) within the rectified box. On the far right, a window showing the color key for our structure learning points; dark green is a foot, green a knee, dark purple the other foot, purple the other knee, etc. Note that structure learning is capable of finding distinction of left legs (green points) and right legs (pink points). On the center right, examples of configurations estimated by our configuration estimator after 20 rounds of structure learning to estimate W. 2 Configuration Estimation and Structure Learning We are presented with a window within which may lie a pedestrian. We would like to be able to estimate the most likely configuration for any pedestrian present. Our research hypothesis is that this estimate will improve pedestrian detector perfomance by reducing the amount of noise the final detector must cope with ? essentially, the segmentation of the pedestrian is improved from a window to a (rectified) figure. We follow convention (established by [26]) and model the configuration of a person as a tree model of segments (figure 2), with a score of segment quality and a score of segment-segment configuration. We ignore arms because they are small and difficult to localize. Our configuration estimation procedure will use dynamic programming to extract the best configuration estimate from a set of scores depending on the location of vertices on the body model. However, we do not know which features are most effective at estimating segment location; this is a well established difficulty in the literature [16]. Structure learning is a method that uses a series of correct examples to estimate appropriate weightings of features relative to one another to produce a score that is effective at estimating configuration [27, 28]. We will write the image as I; coordinates in the image as x; the coordinates of an estimated configuration as y (which is a stack of 7 point coordinates); the score for this configuration as WT f (I, x; y) (which is a linear combination of a collection of scores, each of which depends on the configuration and the image). For a given image I0 and known W and f , the best configuration estimate is arg max WT f (I0 , x; y) y?y(I0 ) and this can be found with dynamic programming for appropriate choice of f and y(I0 ). There is a variety of sensible choices of features for identifying body segments, but there is little evidence that a particular choice of features is best; different choices of W may lead to quite different behaviours. In particular, we will collect a wide range of features likely to identify segments well in f , and wish to learn a choice of W that will give good configuration estimates. We choose a loss function L(yt , yp ) that gives the cost of predicting yp when the correct answer is yt . Write the set of n examples as E, and yp,i as the prediction for the i?th example. Structure learning must now estimate a W to minimize the hinge loss as in [29] X 1 1 || W || 2 + ?i ?i 2 n i?examples subject to the constraints ?i ? E, WT f (Ii , x; yt,i ) + ?i ? max (WT (Ii , x; yp,i ) + L(yt,i , yp,i )) yp,i ?y(Ii ) At the minimum, the slack variables ?i happen at the equality of the constraints. Therefore, we can move the constraints to the objective function, which is: X 1 1 || W || 2 + ?i ( max (WT (Ii , x; yp,i ) + L(yt,i , yp,i )) ? WT f (Ii , x; yt,i )) 2 n yp,i ?y(Ii ) i?examples Notice that this function is convex, but not differentiable. We follow Ratliff et al. [29], and use the subgradient method (see [30]) to minimize. In this case, the derivative of the cost function at an extremal yp,i is a subgradient (but not a gradient, because the cost function is not differentiable everywhere). 3 Features There are two sets of features: first, those used for estimating configuration of a person from a window; and second, those used to determine whether a person is present conditioned on the best estimate of configuration. 3.1 Features for Estimating Configuration We use a tree structured model, given in figure 2. The tree is given by the position of seven points, and encodes the head, torso and legs; arms are excluded because they are small and difficult to identify, and pedestrians can be identified without localizing arms. The tree is rooted at hips, and the arrows give the direction of conditional dependence. We assume that torso, lef tleg, rightleg are conditionally independent given the root (at the hip). The feature vector f (I, x; y) contains two types of feature: appearance features encode the appearance of putative segments; and geometric features encode relative and absolute configuration of the body segments. Each geometric feature depends on at most three point positions. We use three types of feature. First, the length of a segment, represented as a 15-dimensional binary vector whose elements encode whether the segment is longer than each of a set of test segments. Second, the cosine of the angle between a segment and the vertical axis. Third, the cosine of the angle between pairs of adjoining segments (except at the lower torso, for complexity reasons); this allows the structure learning method to prefer straight backs, and reasonable knees. Appearance features are computed for rectangles constructed from pairs of points adjacent in the tree. For each rectangle, we compute Histogram of Oriented Gradient (HOG) features, after [9]. These features have a strong record in pedestrian detection, because they can detect the patterns of orientation associated with characteristic segment outlines (typically, strong vertical orientations in the frame of the segment for torso and legs; strong horizontal orientations at the shoulders and head). However, histograms involve spatial pooling; this means that one can have many strong vertical orientations that do not join up to form a segment boundary. This effect means that HOG features alone are not particularly effective at estimating configuration. To counter this effect, we use the local gradient features described by Ke and Sukthankar [12]. To form these features, we concatenate the horizontal and vertical gradients of the patches in the segment coordinate frame, then normalize and apply PCA to reduce the number of dimensions. Since we want to model the appearance, we do not align the orientation to a canonical orientation as in PCA-SIFT. This feature reveals whether the pattern of a body part appears at that location. The PCA space for each body part is constructed from 500 annotated positive examples. 3.2 Features for Detection Once the best configuration has been obtained for a window, we must determine whether a person is present or not. We do this with a support vector machine. Generally, the features that determine configuration should also be good for determining whether a person is present or not. However, a set of HOG features for the whole image window has been shown to be good at pedestrian detection [9]. The support vector machine should be able to distinguish between good and bad features, so it is natural to concatenate the configuration features described above with a set of HOG features. We find it helpful to reduce the dimension of the set of HOG features to 500, using principal components. We find that these whole window features help recover from incorrect structure predictions. These combined features are used in training the SVM classifier and in detection as well. 4 Results Dataset: We use INRIA Person, consisting of 2416 pedestrian images (1208 images with their leftright reflections) and 1218 background images for training. For testing, there are 1126 pedestrian images (563 images with their left-right reflections) and 453 background images. Training structure learning: we manually annotate 500 selected pedestrian images in the training set examples. We use all 500 annotated examples to build the PCA spaces for each body segment. In training, each example is learned to update the weight vector. The order of selecting examples in each round is randomly drawn based on the differences of their scores on the predictions and their scores on the true targets. For each round, we choose 300 examples drawn (since structure learning is expensive). We have trained the structure learning on 10 rounds and 20 rounds for comparisons. Quality of configuration estimates: Configuration estimates look good (figure 2). A persistent nuisance associated with pictorial structure models of people is the tendency of such models to place legs on top of one another. This occurs if one uses only appearance and relative geometric features. However, our results suggest that if one uses absolute configuration features as well as different appearance features for left and right legs (implicit in the structure learning procedure), the left and right legs are identified correctly. The conditional independence assumption (which means we cannot use the angle between the legs as a feature) does not appear to cause problems, perhaps because absolute configuration features are sufficient. Bootstrapping the SVM: The final SVM is bootstrapped, as in [9]. We use 2146 pedestrian images with 2756 window images extracted from 1218 background images. We apply the learned structure model to generate on these 2416 positive examples and 2756 negative examples to train the initial SVM classifier. We then use this classifier to scan over 1218 background images with step side of 32 pixels and find hard examples (including false positives and true negatives of low confidence by using LibSVM [31] with probability option). These negatives yield a bootstrap training set for the final SVM classifier. This bootstrap learning helps to reduce the false alarm significantly. Testing: We test on 1126 positive images and scan 64x128 image windows over 453 negative test images, stepping by 16 pixels, a total of 182, 934 negative windows. Scanning rate and comparison: Pedestrian detection systems work by scanning image windows, and presenting each window to a detector. Dalal and Triggs established a methodology for evaluating pedestrian detectors, which is now quite widely used. Their dataset offers a set of positive windows (where pedestrians are centered), and a set of negative images. The negative images produce a pool of negative windows, and the detector is evaluated on detect rate on the positive windows and the false positive per window (FPPW) rate on the negative windows. This strategy ? which evaluates the detector, rather than the combination of detection and scanning ? is appropriate for comparing systems that scan image windows at approximately the same high rate. Current systems do so, because the detectors require nearly centered pedestrians. However, the important practical parameter for evaluating a system is the false positive per image (FPPI) rate. If one has a detector that does not require a pedestrian to be centered in the image window, then one can obtain the same detect rate while scanning fewer image windows. In turn, the FPPI rate will go down even if the FPPW rate is fixed. To date, this issue has not arisen, because pedestrian detectors have required pedestrians to be centered. Figure 3. Left: a comparison of our method with the best detector of Dalal and Triggs, and the detector of Sabzmaydani and Mori, on the basis of FPPW rate. This comparison ignores the fact that we can look at fewer image windows without loss of system sensitivity. We show ROC?s for a configuration estimator trained on 10 (blue) and 20 (red) rounds of structure learning. With 20 rounds of structure learning, our detector easily outperforms that of Dalal and Triggs. Note that at high specificity, our detector is slightly more sensitive than that of Sabzmaydani and Mori, too. Right: a comparison of our method with the best detector of Dalal and Triggs, and the detector of Sabzmaydani and Mori, on the basis of FPPI rate. This comparison takes into account the fact that we can look at fewer image windows (by a factor of four). However, scanning by larger steps might cause a loss of sensitivity. We test this with a procedure of replicating positive examples, described in the text, and show the results of four runs. The low variance in the detect rate under this procedure shows that our detector is highly insensitive to the configuration of the pedestrian within a window. If one evaluates on the basis of false positives per image ? which is likely the most important practical parameter ? our system easily outperforms the state of the art. 4.1 The Effect of Configuration Estimates Figure 3 compares our detector with that of Dalal and Triggs, and of Sabzmeydani and Mori on the basis of detect and FPPW rates. We plot detect rate against FPPW rate for the three detectors. For this plot, note that at low FPPW rate our method is somewhat more sensitive than that of Sabzmeydani and Mori, but has no advantage at higher FPPW rates. However, this does not tell the whole story. We scan images at steps of 16 pixels (rather than 8 pixels for Dalal and Triggs and Sabzmeydani and Mori). This means that we scan four times fewer windows than they do. If we can establish that the detect rate is not significantly affected by big offsets in pedestrian position, then we expect a large advantage in FPPI rate. We evaluate the effect on the detect rate of scanning by large steps by a process of sampling. Each positive example is replaced by a total of 256 replicates, obtained by offsetting the image window by steps in the range -7 to 8 in x and y (figure 4). We now conduct multiple evaluation runs. For each, we select one replicate of each positive example uniformly at random. For each run, we evaluate the detect rate. A tendency of the detector to require centered pedestrians would appear as variance in the reported detect rate. The FPPI rate of the detector is not affected by this procedure, which evaluates only the spatial tuning of the detector. Figure 4. In color, original positive examples from the INRIA test set; next to each, are three of the replicates we use to determine the effect on our detection system of scanning relatively few windows, or, equivalently, the effect on our detector of not having a pedestrian centered in the window. See section 4.1, and figure 3. Figure 3 compares system performance, combining detect and scanning rates, by plotting detect rate against FPPI rate. We show four evaluation runs for our system; there is no evidence of substantial variance in detect rate. Our system shows a very substantial increase in detect rate at fixed FPPI rate. 5 Discussion There is a difficulty with the evaluation methodology for pedestrian detection established by Dalal and Triggs (and widely followed). A pedestrian detector that tests windows cannot find more pedestrians than there are windows. This does not usually affect the interpretation of precision and recall statistics because the windows are closely packed. However, in our method, because a pedestrian need not be centered in the window to be detected, the windows need not be closely packed, and there is a possibility of undercounting pedestrians who stand too close together. We believe that this does not occur in our current method, because our window spacing is narrow relative to the width of a pedestrian. Part representations appear to be a natural approach to identifying people. However, to our knowledge, there is no clear evidence to date that shows compelling advantages to using such an approach (e.g. the review in [16]). We believe our method does so. Configuration estimates appear to have two important advantages. First, they result in a detector that is relatively insensitive to the placement of a pedestrian in an image window, meaning one can look at fewer image windows to obtain the same detect rate, with consequent advantages to the rate at which the system produces false positives. This is probably the dominant advantage. Second, configuration estimates appear to be a significant help at high specificity settings (notice that our method beats all others on the FPPW criterion at very low FPPW rates). This is most likely because the process of estimating configurations focuses the detector on important image features (rather than pooling information over space). The result would be that, when there is low contrast or a strange body configuration, the detector can use a somewhat lower detection threshold for the same FPPW rate. Figure 1 shows human configurations detected by our method but not by our implementation of Dalal and Triggs; notice the predominance of either strange body configurations or low contrast. Structure learning is an attractive method to determine which features are discriminative in configuration estimation, and it produces good configuration estimates in complex images. Future work will include: tying W components for legs; evaluating arm detection; and formulating strategies to employ structure learning for detecting other objects. References [1] D.M. Gavrila. Sensor-based pedestrian protection. Intelligent Transportation Systems, pages 77?81, 2001. [2] C. Papageorgiou and T. Poggio. A trainable system for object detection. Int. J. Computer Vision, 38(1):15? 33, June 2000. [3] C.P. Papageorgiou and T. Poggio. A pattern classification approach to dynamical object detection. In Int. Conf. on Computer Vision, pages 1223?1228, 1999. [4] L. Zhao and C.E. Thorpe. Stereo- and neural network-based pedestrian detection. Intelligent Transportation Systems, 1(3):148?154, September 2000. [5] D. Gavrila. Pedestrian detection from a moving vehicle. In European Conference on Computer Vision, pages II: 37?49, 2000. [6] Y. Wu, T. Yu, and G. Hua. A statistical field model for pedestrian detection. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pages I: 1023?1030, 2005. [7] P. Viola, M.J. Jones, and D. Snow. Detecting pedestrians using patterns of motion and appearance. Int. J. Computer Vision, 63(2):153?161, July 2005. [8] M. Dimitrijevic, V. Lepetit, and P. Fua. Human body pose recognition using spatio-temporal templates. In ICCV workshop on Modeling People and Human Interaction, 2005. [9] N. Dalal and B. Triggs. Histograms of oriented gradients for human detection. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pages I: 886?893, 2005. [10] D.G. Lowe. Distinctive image features from scale-invariant keypoints. Int. J. Computer Vision, 60(2):91? 110, November 2004. [11] A. Mohan, C.P. Papageorgiou, and T. Poggio. Example-based object detection in images by components. IEEE T. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 23(4):349?361, April 2001. [12] Y. Ke and R. Sukthankar. Pca-sift: a more distinctive representation for local image descriptors. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pages II: 506?513, 2004. [13] K. Mikolajczyk and C. Schmid. A performance evaluation of local descriptors. IEEE T. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 2004. accepted. [14] Serge Belongie, Jitendra Malik, and Jan Puzicha. Shape matching and object recognition using shape contexts. IEEE T. Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 24(4):509?522, 2002. [15] P. Sabzmeydani and G. Mori. Detecting pedestrians by learning shapelet features. In CVPR, 2007. [16] D.A. Forsyth, O.Arikan, L. Ikemoto, J. O?Brien, and D. Ramanan. Computational studies in human motion 1: Tracking and animation. Foundations and Trends in Computer Vision, 2006. In press. [17] P.F. Felzenszwalb and D.P. Huttenlocher. Pictorial structures for object recognition. Int. J. Computer Vision, 61(1):55?79, January 2005. [18] M. P. Kumar, P. H. S. Torr, and A. Zisserman. Extending pictorial structures for object recognition. In Proceedings of the British Machine Vision Conference, 2004. [19] Deva Ramanan, D.A. Forsyth, and A. Zisserman. Strike a pose: Tracking people by finding stylized poses. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2005. [20] D. Ramanan and D.A. Forsyth. Using temporal coherence to build models of animals. In Proc. ICCV, 2003. [21] D. Ramanan. Learning to parse images of articulated objects. In Proc. NIPS, 2006. [22] R. Ronfard, C. Schmid, and B. Triggs. Learning to parse pictures of people. In European Conference on Computer Vision, page IV: 700 ff., 2002. [23] K. Mikolajczyk, C. Schmid, and A. Zisserman. Human detection based on a probabilistic assembly of robust part detectors. In European Conference on Computer Vision, pages Vol I: 69?82, 2004. [24] A. Micilotta, E. Ong, and R. Bowden. Detection and tracking of humans by probabilistic body part assembly. In British Machine Vision Conference, volume 1, pages 429?438, 2005. [25] B. Leibe, E. Seemann, and B. Schiele. Pedestrian detection in crowded scenes. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pages I: 878?885, 2005. [26] Pedro F. Felzenszwalb and Daniel P. Huttenlocher. Efficient matching of pictorial structures. In IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2000. [27] B. Taskar. Learning Structured Prediction Models: A Large Margin Approach. PhD thesis, Stanford University, 2004. [28] B. Taskar, S. Lacoste-Julien, and M. Jordan. Structured prediction via the extragradient method. In Neural Information Processing Systems Conference, 2005. [29] N. Ratliff, J. A. Bagnell, and M. Zinkevich. Subgradient methods for maximum margin structured learning. In ICML 2006 Workshop on Learning in Structured Output Spaces, 2006. [30] N.Z. Shor. Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions and Applications. 1985. [31] Chih-Chung Chang and Chih-Jen Lin. LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines, 2001.
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Using Deep Belief Nets to Learn Covariance Kernels for Gaussian Processes Ruslan Salakhutdinov and Geoffrey Hinton Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto 6 King?s College Rd, M5S 3G4, Canada rsalakhu,[email protected] Abstract We show how to use unlabeled data and a deep belief net (DBN) to learn a good covariance kernel for a Gaussian process. We first learn a deep generative model of the unlabeled data using the fast, greedy algorithm introduced by [7]. If the data is high-dimensional and highly-structured, a Gaussian kernel applied to the top layer of features in the DBN works much better than a similar kernel applied to the raw input. Performance at both regression and classification can then be further improved by using backpropagation through the DBN to discriminatively fine-tune the covariance kernel. 1 Introduction Gaussian processes (GP?s) are a widely used method for Bayesian non-linear non-parametric regression and classification [13, 16]. GP?s are based on defining a similarity or kernel function that encodes prior knowledge of the smoothness of the underlying process that is being modeled. Because of their flexibility and computational simplicity, GP?s have been successfully used in many areas of machine learning. Many real-world applications are characterized by high-dimensional, highly-structured data with a large supply of unlabeled data but a very limited supply of labeled data. Applications such as information retrieval and machine vision are examples where unlabeled data is readily available. GP?s are discriminative models by nature and within the standard regression or classification scenario, unlabeled data is of no use. Given a set of i.i.d. labeled input vectors Xl = {xn }N n=1 and their N associated target labels {yn }N n=1 ? R or {yn }n=1 ? {?1, 1} for regression/classification, GP?s model p(yn |xn ) directly. Unless some assumptions are made about the underlying distribution of the input data X = [Xl , Xu ], unlabeled data, Xu , cannot be used. Many researchers have tried to use unlabeled P data by incorporating a model of p(X). For classification tasks, [11] model p(X) as a mixture yn p(xn |yn )p(yn ) and then infer p(yn |xn ), [15] attempts to learn covariance kernels based on p(X), and [10] assumes that the decision boundaries should occur in regions where the data density, p(X), is low. When faced with high-dimensional, highly-structured data, however, none of the existing approaches have proved to be particularly successful. In this paper we exploit two properties of DBN?s. First, they can be learned efficiently from unlabeled data and the top-level features generally capture significant, high-order correlations in the data. Second, they can be discriminatively fine-tuned using backpropagation. We first learn a DBN model of p(X) in an entirely unsupervised way using the fast, greedy learning algorithm introduced by [7] and further investigated in [2, 14, 6]. We then use this generative model to initialize a multi-layer, non-linear mapping F (x|W ), parameterized by W , with F : X ? Z mapping the input vectors in X into a feature space Z. Typically the mapping F (x|W ) will contain millions of parameters. The top-level features produced by this mapping allow fairly accurate reconstruction of the input, so they must contain most of the information in the input vector, but they express this information in a way that makes explicit a lot of the higher-order structure in the input data. After learning F (x|W ), a natural way to define a kernel function is to set K(xi , xj ) = exp (?||F (xi |W ) ? F (xj |W )||2 ). Note that the kernel is initialized in an entirely unsupervised way. The parameters W of the covariance kernel can then be fine-tuned using the labeled data by 1 maximizing the log probability of the labels with respect to W . In the final model most of the information for learning a covariance kernel will have come from modeling the input data. The very limited information in the labels will be used only to slightly adjust the layers of features already discovered by the DBN. 2 Gaussian Processes for Regression and Binary Classification For a regression task, we are given a data set D of i.i.d . labeled input vectors Xl = {xn }N n=1 and their corresponding target labels {yn }N n=1 ? R. We are interested in the following probabilistic regression model: yn = f (xn ) + ?, ? ? N (?|0, ? 2 ) (1) A Gaussian process regression places a zero-mean GP prior over the underlying latent function f we are modeling, so that a-priori p(f |Xl ) =N (f |0, K), where f = [f (x1 ), ..., f (xn )]T and K is the covariance matrix, whose entries are specified by the covariance function Kij = K(xi , xj ). The covariance function encodes our prior notion of the smoothness of f , or the prior assumption that if two input vectors are similar according to some distance measure, their labels should be highly correlated. In this paper we will use the spherical Gaussian kernel, parameterized by ? = {?, ?}:  1 Kij = ? exp ? (xi ? xj )T (xi ? xj ) (2) 2? Integrating out the function values f , the marginal log-likelihood takes form: N 1 1 L = log p(y|Xl ) = ? log 2? ? log |K + ? 2 I| ? yT (K + ? 2 I)?1 y (3) 2 2 2 which can then be maximized with respect to the parameters ? and ?. Given a new test point x? , a prediction is obtained by conditioning on the observed data and ?. The distribution of the predicted value y? at x? takes the form: p(y? |x? , D, ?, ? 2 ) = N (y? |k?T (K + ? 2 I)?1 y, k?? ? k?T (K + ? 2 I)?1 k? + ? 2 ) where k? = K(x? , Xl ), and k?? = K(x? , x? ). (4) For a binary classification task, we similarly place a zero mean GP prior over the underlying latent function f , which is then passed through the logistic function g(x) = 1/(1 + exp(?x)) to define a prior p(yn = 1|xn ) = g(f (xn )). Given a new test point x? , inference is done by first obtaining the distribution over the latent function f? = f (x? ): Z p(f? |x? , D) = p(f? |x? , Xl , f )p(f |Xl , y)df (5) which is then used to produce a probabilistic prediction: Z p(y? = 1|x? , D) = g(f? )p(f? |x? , D)df? (6) The non-Gaussian likelihood makes the integral in Eq. 5 analytically intractable. In our experiments, we approximate the non-Gaussian posterior p(f |Xl , y) with a Gaussian one using expectation propagation [12]. For more thorough reviews and implementation details refer to [13, 16]. 3 Learning Deep Belief Networks (DBN?s) In this section we describe an unsupervised way of learning a DBN model of the input data X = [Xl , Xu ], that contains both labeled and unlabeled data sets. A DBN can be trained efficiently by using a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) to learn one layer of hidden features at a time [7]. Welling et. al. [18] introduced a class of two-layer undirected graphical models that generalize RBM?s to exponential family distributions. This framework will allow us to model real-valued images of face patches and word-count vectors of documents. 3.1 Modeling Real-valued Data We use a conditional Gaussian distribution for modeling observed ?visible? pixel values x (e.g. images of faces) and a conditional Bernoulli distribution for modeling ?hidden? features h (Fig. 1): P (x?bi ??i hj wij )2 j 1 exp(? ) (7) p(xi = x|h) = ?2?? 2 2? i i  P p(hj = 1|x) = g bj + i wij x?ii (8) 2 1000 W3 1000 target y RBM 1000 h GP 1000 WT3 W2 Binary Hidden Features 1000 RBM 1000 W 1000 WT2 1000 WT1 W1 x Gaussian Visible Units Feature Representation F(X|W) RBM Input X Figure 1: Left panel: Markov random field of the generalized RBM. The top layer represents stochastic binary hidden features h and and the bottom layer is composed of linear visible units x with Gaussian noise. When using a Constrained Poisson Model, the top layer represents stochastic binary latent topic features h and the bottom layer represents the Poisson visible word-count vector x. Middle panel: Pretraining consists of learning a stack of RBM?s. Right panel: After pretraining, the RBM?s are used to initialize a covariance function of the Gaussian process, which is then fine-tuned by backpropagation. where g(x) = 1/(1 + exp(?x)) is the logistic function, wij is a symmetric interaction term between input i and feature j, ?i2 is the variance of input i, and bi , bj are biases. The marginal distribution over visible vector x is: X exp (?E(x, h)) R P (9) p(x) = g exp (?E(u, g))du u h P P P ?bi )2 where E(x, h) is an energy term: E(x, h) = i (xi2? ? j bj hj ? i,j hj wij x?ii . The param2 i eter updates required to perform gradient ascent in the log-likelihood is obtained from Eq. 9: ?wij = ? ? log p(x) = ?(<zi hj >data ? <zi hj >model ) ?wij (10) where ? is the learning rate, zi = xi /?i , < ?>data denotes an expectation with respect to the data distribution and < ?>model is an expectation with respect to the distribution defined by the model. To circumvent the difficulty of computing <?>model , we use 1-step Contrastive Divergence [5]: ?wij = ?(<zi hj >data ? <zi hj >recon ) (11) The expectation < zi hj >data defines the expected sufficient statistics of the data distribution and is computed as zi p(hj = 1|x) when the features are being driven by the observed data from the training set using Eq. 8. After stochastically activating the features, Eq. 7 is used to ?reconstruct? real-valued data. Then Eq. 8 is used again to activate the features and compute <zi hj >recon when the features are being driven by the reconstructed data. Throughout our experiments we set variances ?i2 = 1 for all visible units i, which facilitates learning. The learning rule for the biases is just a simplified version of Eq. 11. 3.2 Modeling Count Data with the Constrained Poisson Model We use a conditional ?constrained? Poisson distribution for modeling observed ?visible? word count data x and a conditional Bernoulli distribution for modeling ?hidden? topic features h: P   X exp (?i + j hj wij )  ? N , p(hj = 1|x) = g(bj + P p(xi = n|h) = Pois n, P wij xi ) (12) k exp ?k + j hj Wkj i  ?? n where Pois P n, ? = e ? /n!, wij is a symmetric interaction term between word i and feature j, N = i xi is the total length of the document, ?i is the bias of the conditional Poisson model for word i, and bj is the bias of feature j. The Poisson rate, whose log is shifted by the weighted combination of the feature activations, is normalized and scaled up by N . We call this the ?Constrained Poisson Model? since it ensures that the mean Poisson rates across all words sum up to the length of the document. This normalization is significant because it makes learning stable and it deals appropriately with documents of different lengths. 3 The marginal distribution over visible count vectors x is given in Eq. 9 with an ?energy? given by X X X X E(x, h) = ? ?i xi + log (xi !) ? b j hj ? xi hj wij (13) i i j i,j The gradient of the log-likelihood function is: ?wij = ? ? log p(v) = ?(<xi hj >data ? <xi hj >model ) ?wij (14) 3.3 Greedy Recursive Learning of Deep Belief Nets A single layer of binary features is not the best way to capture the structure in the input data. We now describe an efficient way to learn additional layers of binary features. After learning the first layer of hidden features we have an undirected model that defines p(v, h) by defining a consistent pair of conditional probabilities, p(h|v) and p(v|h) which can be used to sample from the model distribution. A different way to express what has been learned is p(v|h) and p(h). Unlike a standard, directed model, this p(h) does not have its own separate parameters. It is a complicated, non-factorial prior on h that is defined implicitly by p(h|v) and p(v|h). This peculiar decomposition into p(h) and p(v|h) suggests a recursive algorithm: keep the learned p(v|h) but replace p(h) by a better prior over h, i.e. a prior that is closer to the average, over all the data vectors, of the conditional posterior over h. So after learning an undirected model, the part we keep is part of a multilayer directed model. We can sample from this average conditional posterior by simply using p(h|v) on the training data and these samples are then the ?data? that is used for training the next layer of features. The only difference from learning the first layer of features is that the ?visible? units of the second-level RBM are also binary [6, 3]. The learning rule provided in the previous section remains the same [5]. We could initialize the new RBM model by simply using the existing learned model but with the roles of the hidden and visible units reversed. This ensures that p(v) in our new model starts out being exactly the same as p(h) in our old one. Provided the number of features per layer does not decrease, [7] show that each extra layer increases a variational lower bound on the log probability of data. To suppress noise in the learning signal, we use the real-valued activation probabilities for the visible units of every RBM, but to prevent hidden units from transmitting more than one bit of information from the data to its reconstruction, the pretraining always uses stochastic binary values for the hidden units. The greedy, layer-by-layer training can be repeated several times to learn a deep, hierarchical model in which each layer of features captures strong high-order correlations between the activities of features in the layer below. 4 Learning the Covariance Kernel for a Gaussian Process After pretraining, the stochastic activities of the binary features in each layer are replaced by deterministic, real-valued probabilities and the DBN is used to initialize a multi-layer, non-linear mapping f (x|W ) as shown in figure 1. We define a Gaussian covariance function, parameterized by ? = {?, ?} and W as:  1 Kij = ? exp ? ||F (xi |W ) ? F (xj |W )||2 (15) 2? Note that this covariance function is initialized in an entirely unsupervised way. We can now maximize the log-likelihood of Eq. 3 with respect to the parameters of the covariance function using the labeled training data[9]. The derivative of the log-likelihood with respect to the kernel function is:  ?L 1 = Ky?1 yyT Ky?1 ? Ky?1 (16) ?Ky 2 where Ky = K + ? 2 I is the covariance matrix. Using the chain rule we readily obtain the necessary gradients: ?L ?L ?Ky = ?? ?Ky ?? and ?L ?L ?Ky ?F (x|W ) = W ?Ky ?F (x|W ) ?W 4 (17) Training Data ?22.07 32.99 ?41.15 66.38 27.49 Unlabeled Test Data A B Figure 2: Top panel A: Randomly sampled examples of the training and test data. Bottom panel B: The same sample of the training and test images but with rectangular occlusions. A B Training labels 100 500 1000 100 500 1000 GPstandard Sph. ARD 22.24 28.57 17.25 18.16 16.33 16.36 26.94 28.32 20.20 21.06 19.20 17.98 GP-DBNgreedy Sph. ARD 17.94 18.37 12.71 8.96 11.22 8.77 23.15 19.42 15.16 11.01 14.15 10.43 GP-DBNfine Sph. ARD 15.28 15.01 7.25 6.84 6.42 6.31 19.75 18.59 10.56 10.12 9.13 9.23 GPpca Sph. ARD 18.13 (10) 16.47 (10) 14.75 (20) 10.53 (80) 14.86 (20) 10.00 (160) 25.91 (10) 19.27 (20) 17.67 (10) 14.11 (20) 16.26 (10) 11.55 (80) Table 1: Performance results on the face-orientation regression task. The root mean squared error (RMSE) on the test set is shown for each method using spherical Gaussian kernel and Gaussian kernel with ARD hyperparameters. By row: A) Non-occluded face data, B) Occluded face data. For the GPpca model, the number of principal components that performs best on the test data is shown in parenthesis. where ?F (x|W )/?W is computed using standard backpropagation. We also optimize the observation noise ? 2 . It is necessary to compute the inverse of Ky , so each gradient evaluation has O(N 3 ) complexity where N is the number of the labeled training cases. When learning the restricted Boltzmann machines that are composed to form the initial DBN, however, each gradient evaluation scales linearly in time and space with the number of unlabeled training cases. So the pretraining stage can make efficient use of very large sets of unlabeled data to create sensible, high-level features and when the amount of labeled data is small. Then the very limited amount of information in the labels can be used to slightly refine those features rather than to create them. 5 Experimental Results In this section we present experimental results for several regression and classification tasks that involve high-dimensional, highly-structured data. The first regression task is to extract the orientation of a face from a gray-level image of a large patch of the face. The second regression task is to map images of handwritten digits to a single real-value that is as close as possible to the integer represented by the digit in the image. The first classification task is to discriminate between images of odd digits and images of even digits. The second classification task is to discriminate between two different classes of news story based on the vector of word counts in each story. 5.1 Extracting the Orientation of a Face Patch The Olivetti face data set contains ten 64?64 images of each of forty different people. We constructed a data set of 13,000 28?28 images by randomly rotating (?90? to +90? ), cropping, and subsampling the original 400 images. The data set was then subdivided into 12,000 training images, which contained the first 30 people, and 1,000 test images, which contained the remaining 10 people. 1,000 randomly sampled face patches from the training set were assigned an orientation label. The remaining 11,000 training images were used as unlabeled data. We also made a more difficult version of the task by occluding part of each face patch with randomly chosen rectangles. Panel A of figure 2 shows randomly sampled examples from the training and test data. For training on the Olivetti face patches we used the 784-1000-1000-1000 architecture shown in figure 1. The entire training set of 12,000 unlabeled images was used for greedy, layer-by-layer training of a DBN model. The 2.8 million parameters of the DBN model may seem excessive for 12,000 training cases, but each training case involves modeling 625 real-values rather than just a single real-valued label. Also, we only train each layer of features for a few passes through the training data and we penalize the squared weights. 5 45 1.0 40 Input Pixel Space 35 30 25 0.8 20 15 Feature 312 10 5 0.6 0 1 2 3 4 log ? 5 6 90 80 0.4 Feature Space 70 60 50 40 0.2 More Relevant 30 20 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Feature 992 0 ?1 0 1 2 log ? 3 4 5 6 Figure 3: Left panel shows a scatter plot of the two most relevant features, with each point replaced by the corresponding input test image. For better visualization, overlapped images are not shown. Right panel displays the histogram plots of the learned ARD hyper-parameters log ?. After the DBN has been pretrained on the unlabeled data, a GP model was fitted to the labeled data using the top-level features of the DBN model as inputs. We call this model GP-DBNgreedy. GP-DBNgreedy can be significantly improved by slightly altering the weights in the DBN. The GP model gives error derivatives for its input vectors which are the top-level features of the DBN. These derivatives can be backpropagated through the DBN to allow discriminative fine-tuning of the weights. Each time the weights in the DBN are updated, the GP model is also refitted. We call this model GP-DBNfine. For comparison, we fitted a GP model that used the pixel intensities of the labeled images as its inputs. We call this model GPstandard. We also used PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the labeled images and fitted several different GP models using the projections onto the first m principal components as the input. Since we only want a lower bound on the error of this model, we simply use the value of m that performs best on the test data. We call this model GPpca. Table 1 shows the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the predicted face orientations using all four types of GP model on varying amounts of labeled data. The results show that both GPDBNgreedy and GP-DBNfine significantly outperform a regular GP model. Indeed, GP-DBNfine with only 100 labeled training cases outperforms GPstandard with 1000. To test the robustness of our approach to noise in the input we took the same data set and created artificial rectangular occlusions (see Fig. 2, panel B). The number of rectangles per image was drawn from a Poisson with ? = 2. The top-left location, length and width of each rectangle was sampled from a uniform [0,25]. The pixel intensity of each occluding rectangle was set to the mean pixel intensity of the entire image. Table 1 shows that the performance of all models degrades, but their relative performances remain the same and GP-DBNfine on occluded data is still much better than GPstandard on non-occluded data. We have also experimented with using a Gaussian kernel with ARD hyper-parameters, which is a common practice when the input vectors are high-dimensional:  1 (18) Kij = ? exp ? (xi ? xj )T D(xi ? xj ) 2 where D is the diagonal matrix with Dii = 1/?i , so that the covariance function has a separate length-scale parameter for each dimension. ARD hyper-parameters were optimized by maximizing the marginal log-likelihood of Eq. 3. Table 1 shows that ARD hyper-parameters do not improve GPstandard, but they do slightly improve GP-DBNfine and they strongly improve GP-DBNgreedy and GPpca when there are 500 or 1000 labeled training cases. The histogram plot of log ? in figure 3 reveals that there are a few extracted features that are very relevant (small ?) to our prediction task. The same figure (left panel) shows a scatter plot of the two most relevant features of GP-DBNgreedy model, with each point replaced by the corresponding input test image. Clearly, these two features carry a lot of information about the orientation of the face. 6 A B Train labels 100 500 1000 100 500 1000 GPstandard Sph. ARD 1.86 2.27 1.42 1.62 1.25 1.36 0.0884 0.1087 0.0222 0.0541 0.0129 0.0385 GP-DBNgreedy Sph. ARD 1.68 1.61 1.19 1.27 1.07 1.14 0.0528 0.0597 0.0100 0.0161 0.0058 0.0059 GP-DBNfine Sph. ARD 1.63 1.58 1.16 1.22 1.03 1.10 0.0501 0.0599 0.0055 0.0104 0.0050 0.0100 GPpca Sph. ARD 1.73 (20) 2.00 (20) 1.32 (40) 1.36 (20) 1.19 (40) 1.22 (80) 0.0785 (10) 0.0920 (10) 0.0160 (40) 0.0235 (20) 0.0091 (40) 0.0127 (40) Table 2: Performance results on the digit magnitude regression task (A) and and discriminating odd vs. even digits classification task (B). The root mean squared error for regression task on the test set is shown for each method. For classification task the area under the ROC (AUROC) metric is used. For each method we show 1-AUROC on the test set. All methods were tried using both spherical Gaussian kernel, and a Gaussian kernel with ARD hyper-parameters. For the GPpca model, the number of principal components that performs best on the test data is shown in parenthesis. Number of labeled cases (50% in each class) 100 500 1000 GPstandard GP-DBNgreedy GP-DBNfine 0.1295 0.0875 0.0645 0.1180 0.0793 0.0580 0.0995 0.0609 0.0458 Table 3: Performance results using the area under the ROC (AUROC) metric on the text classification task. For each method we show 1-AUROC on the test set. We suspect that the GP-DBNfine model does not benefit as much from the ARD hyper-parameters because the fine-tuning stage is already capable of turning down the activities of irrelevant top-level features. 5.2 Extracting the Magnitude Represented by a Handwritten Digit and Discriminating between Images of Odd and Even Digits The MNIST digit data set contains 60,000 training and 10,000 test 28?28 images of ten handwritten digits (0 to 9). 100 randomly sampled training images of each class were assigned a magnitude label. The remaining 59,000 training images were used as unlabeled data. As in the previous experiment, we used the 784-1000-1000-1000 architecture with the entire training set of 60,000 unlabeled digits being used for greedily pretraining the DBN model. Table 2, panel A, shows that GP-DBNfine and GP-DBNgreedy perform considerably better than GPstandard both with and without ARD hyperparameters. The same table, panel B, shows results for the classification task of discriminating between images of odd and images of even digits. We used the same labeled training set, but with each digit categorized into an even or an odd class. The same DBN model was used, so the Gaussian covariance function was initialized in exactly the same way for both regression and classification tasks. The performance of GP-DBNgreedy demonstrates that the greedily learned feature representation captures a lot of structure in the unlabeled input data which is useful for subsequent discrimination tasks, even though these tasks are unknown when the DBN is being trained. 5.3 Classifying News Stories The Reuters Corpus Volume II is an archive of 804,414 newswire stories The corpus covers four major groups: Corporate/Industrial, Economics, Government/Social, and Markets. The data was randomly split into 802,414 training and 2000 test articles. The test set contains 500 articles of each major group. The available data was already in a convenient, preprocessed format, where common stopwords were removed and all the remaining words were stemmed. We only made use of the 2000 most frequently used word stems in the training data. As a result, each document was represented as a vector containing 2000 word counts. No other preprocessing was done. For the text classification task we used a 2000-1000-1000-1000 architecture. The entire unlabeled training set of 802,414 articles was used for learning a multilayer generative model of the text documents. The bottom layer of the DBN was trained using a Constrained Poisson Model. Table 3 shows the area under the ROC curve for classifying documents belonging to the Corporate/Industrial vs. Economics groups. As expected, GP-DBNfine and GP-DBNgreedy work better than GPstandard. The results of binary discrimination between other pairs of document classes are very similar to the results presented in table 3. Our experiments using a Gaussian kernel with ARD hyper-parameters did not show any significant improvements. Examining the histograms of the length-scale parame7 ters ?, we found that most of the input word-counts as well as most of the extracted features were relevant to the classification task. 6 Conclusions and Future Research In this paper we have shown how to use Deep Belief Networks to greedily pretrain and discriminatively fine-tune a covariance kernel for a Gaussian Process. The discriminative fine-tuning produces an additional improvement in performance that is comparable in magnitude to the improvement produced by using the greedily pretrained DBN. For high-dimensional, highly-structured data, this is an effective way to make use of large unlabeled data sets, especially when labeled training data is scarce. Greedily pretrained DBN?s can also be used to provide input vectors for other kernel-based methods, including SVMs [17, 8] and kernel regression [1], and our future research will concentrate on comparing our method to other kernel-based semi-supervised learning algorithms [4, 19]. Acknowledgments We thank Radford Neal for many helpful suggestions. This research was supported by NSERC, CFI and OTI. GEH is a fellow of CIAR and holds a CRC chair. References [1] J. K. Benedetti. On the nonparametric estimation of regression functions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society series B, 39:248?253, 1977. [2] Y. Bengio and Y. Le Cun. Scaling learning algorithms towards AI. In L. Bottou, O. Chapelle, D. DeCoste, and J. Weston, editors, Large-Scale Kernel Machines. MIT Press, 2007. [3] Y. Bengio, P. Lamblin, D. Popovici, and H. Larochelle. Greedy layer-wise training of deep networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2006. [4] O. Chapelle, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Zien. Semi-Supervised Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [5] G. E. Hinton. Training products of experts by minimizing contrastive divergence. Neural Computation, 14(8):1711?1800, 2002. [6] G. E. Hinton and R. Salakhutdinov. Reducing the dimensionality of data with neural networks. Science, 313, 2006. [7] Geoffrey E. Hinton, Simon Osindero, and Yee Whye Teh. A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets. Neural Computation, 18(7):1527?1554, 2006. [8] F. Lauer, C. Y. Suen, and G. Bloch. A trainable feature extractor for handwritten digit recognition. Pattern Recognition, 40(6):1816?1824, 2007. [9] N. D. Lawrence and J. Qui?nonero Candela. Local distance preservation in the GP-LVM through back constraints. In William W. Cohen and Andrew Moore, editors, ICML, volume 148, pages 513?520. ACM, 2006. [10] N. D. Lawrence and M. I. Jordan. Semi-supervised learning via gaussian processes. In NIPS, 2004. [11] N. D. Lawrence and B. Sch?olkopf. Estimating a kernel Fisher discriminant in the presence of label noise. In Proc. 18th International Conf. on Machine Learning, pages 306?313. Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, 2001. [12] T. P. Minka. Expectation propagation for approximate bayesian inference. In Jack Breese and Daphne Koller, editors, UAI, pages 362?369, San Francisco, CA, 2001. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. [13] C. E. Rasmussen and C. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. The MIT Press, 2006. [14] R. Salakhutdinov and G. E. Hinton. Learning a nonlinear embedding by preserving class neighbourhood structure. In AI and Statistics, 2007. [15] M. Seeger. Covariance kernels from bayesian generative models. In Thomas G. Dietterich, Suzanna Becker, and Zoubin Ghahramani, editors, NIPS, pages 905?912. MIT Press, 2001. [16] M. Seeger. Gaussian processes for machine learning. Int. J. Neural Syst, 14(2):69?106, 2004. [17] V. Vapnik. Statistical Learning Theory. Wiley, 1998. [18] M. Welling, M. Rosen-Zvi, and G. Hinton. Exponential family harmoniums with an application to information retrieval. In NIPS 17, pages 1481?1488, Cambridge, MA, 2005. MIT Press. [19] Xiaojin Zhu, Jaz S. Kandola, Zoubin Ghahramani, and John D. Lafferty. Nonparametric transforms of graph kernels for semi-supervised learning. In NIPS, 2004. 8
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Learning Bounds for Domain Adaptation John Blitzer, Koby Crammer, Alex Kulesza, Fernando Pereira, and Jennifer Wortman Department of Computer and Information Science University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19146 {blitzer,crammer,kulesza,pereira,wortmanj}@cis.upenn.edu Abstract Empirical risk minimization offers well-known learning guarantees when training and test data come from the same domain. In the real world, though, we often wish to adapt a classifier from a source domain with a large amount of training data to different target domain with very little training data. In this work we give uniform convergence bounds for algorithms that minimize a convex combination of source and target empirical risk. The bounds explicitly model the inherent trade-off between training on a large but inaccurate source data set and a small but accurate target training set. Our theory also gives results when we have multiple source domains, each of which may have a different number of instances, and we exhibit cases in which minimizing a non-uniform combination of source risks can achieve much lower target error than standard empirical risk minimization. 1 Introduction Domain adaptation addresses a common situation that arises when applying machine learning to diverse data. We have ample data drawn from a source domain to train a model, but little or no training data from the target domain where we wish to use the model [17, 3, 10, 5, 9]. Domain adaptation questions arise in nearly every application of machine learning. In face recognition systems, training images are obtained under one set of lighting or occlusion conditions while the recognizer will be used under different conditions [14]. In speech recognition, acoustic models trained by one speaker need to be used by another [12]. In natural language processing, part-of-speech taggers, parsers, and document classifiers are trained on carefully annotated training sets, but applied to texts from different genres or styles [7, 6]. While many domain-adaptation algorithms have been proposed, there are only a few theoretical studies of the problem [3, 10]. Those studies focus on the case where training data is drawn from a source domain and test data is drawn from a different target domain. We generalize this approach to the case where we have some labeled data from the target domain in addition to a large amount of labeled source data. Our main result is a uniform convergence bound on the true target risk of a model trained to minimize a convex combination of empirical source and target risks. The bound describes an intuitive tradeoff between the quantity of the source data and the accuracy of the target data, and under relatively weak assumptions we can compute it from finite labeled and unlabeled samples of the source and target distributions. We use the task of sentiment classification to demonstrate that our bound makes correct predictions about model error with respect to a distance measure between source and target domains and the number of training instances. Finally, we extend our theory to the case in which we have multiple sources of training data, each of which may be drawn according to a different distribution and may contain a different number of instances. Several authors have empirically studied a special case of this in which each instance is weighted separately in the loss function, and instance weights are set to approximate the target domain distribution [10, 5, 9, 11]. We give a uniform convergence bound for algorithms that min1 imize a convex combination of multiple empirical source risks and we show that these algorithms can outperform standard empirical risk minimization. 2 A Rigorous Model of Domain Adaptation We formalize domain adaptation for binary classification as follows. A domain is a pair consisting of a distribution D on X and a labeling function f : X ? [0, 1].1 Initially we consider two domains, a source domain hDS , fS i and a target domain hDT , fT i. A hypothesis is a function h : X ? {0, 1}. The probability according the distribution DS that a hypothesis h disagrees with a labeling function f (which can also be a hypothesis) is defined as ?S (h, f ) = Ex?DS [ |h(x) ? f (x)| ] . When we want to refer to the risk of a hypothesis, we use the shorthand ?S (h) = ?S (h, fS ). We write the empirical risk of a hypothesis on the source domain as ??S (h). We use the parallel notation ?T (h, f ), ?T (h), and ??T (h) for the target domain. We measure the distance between two distributions D and D? using a hypothesis class-specific distance measure. Let H be a hypothesis class for instance space X , and AH be the set of subsets of X that are the support of some hypothesis in H. In other words, for every hypothesis h ? H, {x : x ? X , h(x) = 1} ? AH . We define the distance between two distributions as: dH (D, D? ) = 2 sup |PrD [A] ? PrD? [A]| . A?AH For our purposes, the distance dH has an important advantage over more common means for comparing distributions such as L1 distance or the KL divergence: we can compute dH from finite unlabeled samples of the distributions D and D? when H has finite VC dimension [4]. Furthermore, we can compute a finite-sample approximation to dH by finding a classifier h ? H that maximally discriminates between (unlabeled) instances from D and D? [3]. For a hypothesis space H, we define the symmetric difference hypothesis space H?H as H?H = {h(x) ? h? (x) : h, h? ? H} , where ? is the XOR operator. Each hypothesis g ? H?H labels as positive all points x on which a given pair of hypotheses in H disagree. We can then define AH?H in the natural way as the set of all sets A such that A = {x : x ? X , h(x) 6= h? (x)} for some h, h? ? H. This allows us to define as above a distance dH?H that satisfies the following useful inequality for any hypotheses h, h? ? H, which is straight-forward to prove: 1 |?S (h, h? ) ? ?T (h, h? )| ? dH?H (DS , DT ) . 2 We formalize the difference between labeling functions by measuring error relative to other hypotheses in our class. The ideal hypothesis minimizes combined source and target risk: h? = argmin ?S (h) + ?T (h) . h?H We denote the combined risk of the ideal hypothesis by ? = ?S (h? ) + ?T (h? ) . The ideal hypothesis explicitly embodies our notion of adaptability. When the ideal hypothesis performs poorly, we cannot expect to learn a good target classifier by minimizing source error.2 On the other hand, for the kinds of tasks mentioned in Section 1, we expect ? to be small. If this is the case, we can reasonably approximate target risk using source risk and the distance between DS and DT . We illustrate the kind of result available in this setting with the following bound on the target risk in terms of the source risk, the difference between labeling functions fS and fT , and the distance between the distributions DS and DT . This bound is essentially a restatement of the main theorem of Ben-David et al. [3], with a small correction to the statement of their theorem. 1 This notion of domain is not the domain of a function. To avoid confusion, we will always mean a specific distribution and function pair when we say domain. 2 Of course it is still possible that the source data contains relevant information about the target function even when the ideal hypothesis performs poorly ? suppose, for example, that fS (x) = 1 if and only if fT (x) = 0 ? but a classifier trained using source data will perform poorly on data from the target domain in this case. 2 Theorem 1 Let H be a hypothesis space of VC-dimension d and US , UT be unlabeled samples of size m? each, drawn from DS and DT , respectively. Let d?H?H be the empirical distance on US , UT , induced by the symmetric difference hypothesis space. With probability at least 1 ? ? (over the choice of the samples), for every h ? H, s 2d log(2m? ) + log( 4? ) 1? ?T (h) ? ?S (h) + dH?H (US , UT ) + 4 +?. 2 m? The corrected proof of this result can be found Appendix A.3 The main step in the proof is a variant of the triangle inequality in which the sides of the triangle represent errors between different decision rules [3, 8]. The bound is relative to ?. When the combined error of the ideal hypothesis is large, there is no classifier that performs well on both the source and target domains, so we cannot hope to find a good target hypothesis by training only on the source domain. On the other hand, for small ? (the most relevant case for domain adaptation), Theorem 1 shows that source error and unlabeled H?H-distance are important quantities for computing target error. 3 A Learning Bound Combining Source and Target Data Theorem 1 shows how to relate source and target risk. We now proceed to give a learning bound for empirical risk minimization using combined source and target training data. In order to simplify the presentation of the trade-offs that arise in this scenario, we state the bound in terms of VC dimension. Similar, tighter bounds could be derived using more sophisticated measures of complexity such as PAC-Bayes [15] or Rademacher complexity [2] in an analogous way. At train time a learner receives a sample S = (ST , SS ) of m instances, where ST consists of ?m instances drawn independently from DT and SS consists of (1??)m instances drawn independently from DS . The goal of a learner is to find a hypothesis that minimizes target risk ?T (h). When ? is small, as in domain adaptation, minimizing empirical target risk may not be the best choice. We analyze learners that instead minimize a convex combination of empirical source and target risk: ??? (h) = ?? ?T (h) + (1 ? ?)? ?S (h) We denote as ?? (h) the corresponding weighted combination of true source and target risks, measured with respect to DS and DT . We bound the target risk of a domain adaptation algorithm that minimizes ??? (h). The proof of the bound has two main components, which we state as lemmas below. First we bound the difference between the target risk ?T (h) and weighted risk ?? (h). Then we bound the difference between the true and empirical weighted risks ?? (h) and ??? (h). The proofs of these lemmas, as well as the proof of Theorem 2, are in Appendix B. Lemma 1 Let h be a hypothesis in class H. Then   1 |?? (h) ? ?T (h)| ? (1 ? ?) dH?H (DS , DT ) + ? . 2 The lemma shows that as ? approaches 1, we rely increasingly on the target data, and the distance between domains matters less and less. The proof uses a similar technique to that of Theorem 1. Lemma 2 Let H be a hypothesis space of VC-dimension d. If a random labeled sample of size m is generated by drawing ?m points from DT and (1 ? ?)m points from DS , and labeling them according to fS and fT respectively, then with probability at least 1 ? ? (over the choice of the samples), for every h ? H s r ?2 (1 ? ?)2 d log(2m) ? log ? + . |? ?? (h) ? ?? (h)| < ? 1?? 2m 3 A longer version of this paper that includes the omitted appendix can be found on the authors? websites. 3 The proof is similar to standard uniform convergence proofs [16, 1], but it uses Hoeffding?s inequality in a different way because the bound on the range of the random variables underlying the inequality varies with ? and ?. The lemma shows that as ? moves away from ? (where each instance is weighted equally), our finite sample approximation to ?? (h) becomes less reliable. Theorem 2 Let H be a hypothesis space of VC-dimension d. Let US and UT be unlabeled samples of size m? each, drawn from DS and DT respectively. Let S be a labeled sample of size m generated by drawing ?m points from DT and (1 ? ?)m points from DS , labeling them according to fS and ? ? H is the empirical minimizer of ??? (h) on S and h? = minh?H ?T (h) is the fT , respectively. If h T target risk minimizer, then with probability at least 1 ? ? (over the choice of the samples), s r ?2 (1 ? ?)2 d log(2m) ? log ? ? ? ?T (h) ? ?T (hT ) + 2 + + ? 1?? 2m ? ? s ? ) + log( 4 ) 2d log(2m 1 ? 2(1 ? ?) ? d?H?H (US , UT ) + 4 + ?? . 2 m? When ? = 0 (that is, we ignore target data), the bound is identical to that of Theorem 1, but with an empirical estimate for the source error. Similarly when ? = 1 (that is, we use only target data), the bound is the standard learning bound using only target data. At the optimal ? (which minimizes the right hand side), the bound is always at least as tight as either of these two settings. Finally note that by choosing different values of ?, the bound allows us to effectively trade off the small amount of target data against the large amount of less relevant source data. We remark that when it is known that ? = 0, the dependence on m in Theorem 2 can be improved; this corresponds to the restricted or realizable setting. 4 Experimental Results We evaluate our theory by comparing its predictions to empirical results. While ideally Theorem 2 could be directly compared with test error, this is not practical because ? is unknown, dH?H is computationally intractable [3], and the VC dimension d is too large to be a useful measure of complexity. Instead, we develop a simple approximation of Theorem 2 that we can compute from unlabeled data. For many adaptation tasks, ? is small (there exists a classifier which is simultaneously good for both domains), so we ignore it here. We approximate dH?H by training a linear classifier to discriminate between the two domains. We use a standard hinge  loss (normalized by dividing by the number of instances) and apply the quantity 1 ? hinge loss in place of the actual dH?H . Let ?(US , UT ) be our approximation to dH?H , computed from source and target unlabeled data. For domains that can be perfectly separated with margin, ?(US , UT ) = 1. For domains that are indistinguishable, ?(US , UT ) = 0. Finally we replace the VC dimension sample complexity term with a tighter constant C. The resulting approximation to the bound of Theorem 2 is s   C ?2 (1 ? ?)2 f (?) = + (1 ? ?)?(US , UT ) . (1) + m ? 1?? Our experimental results are for the task of sentiment classification. Sentiment classification systems have recently gained popularity because of their potential applicability to a wide range of documents in many genres, from congressional records to financial news. Because of the large number of potential genres, sentiment classification is an ideal area for domain adaptation. We use the data provided by Blitzer et al. [6], which consists of reviews of eight types of products from Amazon.com: apparel, books, DVDs, electronics, kitchen appliances, music, video, and a catchall category ?other?. The task is binary classification: given a review, predict whether it is positive (4 or 5 out of 5 stars) or negative (1 or 2 stars). We chose the ?apparel? domain as our target domain, and all of the plots on the right-hand side of Figure 1 are for this domain. We obtain empirical curves for the error as a function of ? by training a classifier using a weighted hinge loss. Suppose the target domain has weight ? and there are ?m target training instances. Then we scale the loss of target training instance by ?/? and the loss of a source training instance by (1 ? ?)/(1 ? ?). 4 (a) vary distance, mS = 2500, mT = 1000 (c) ?(US , UT ) = 0.715, mS = 2500, vary mT Dist: 0.780 Dist: 0.715 Dist: 0.447 Dist: 0.336 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 (b) vary sources, mS = 2500, mT = 1000 0.2 0.4 (e) ?(US , UT ) = 0.715, vary mS , mT = 2500 mT: 250 m : 250 mT: 500 m : 500 mT: 1000 m : 1000 mT: 2000 m : 2500 0.6 S S S S 0.8 1 0 (d) source = dvd, mS = 2500, vary mT 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 (f) source = dvd, vary mS , mT = 2500 mT: 250 books: 0.78 dvd: 0.715 electronics: 0.447 kitchen: 0.336 mT: 500 mS: 250 mT: 1000 mS: 500 mT: 2000 mS: 1000 mS: 2500 0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Figure 1: Comparing the bound with test error for sentiment classification. The x-axis of each figure shows ?. The y-axis shows the value of the bound or test set error. (a), (c), and (e) depict the bound, (b), (d), and (f) the test error. Each curve in (a) and (b) represents a different distance. Curves in (c) and (d) represent different numbers of target instances. Curves in (e) and (f) represent different numbers of source instances. Figure 1 shows a series of plots of equation 1 (on the top) coupled with corresponding plots of test error (on the bottom) as a function of ? for different amounts of source and target data and different distances between domains. In each pair of plots, a single parameter (distance, number of target instances mT , or number of source instances mS ) is varied while the other two are held constant. Note that ? = mT /(mT + mS ). The plots on the top part of Figure 1 are not meant to be numerical proxies for the true error (For the source domains ?books? and ?dvd?, the distance alone is well above 12 ). Instead, they are scaled to illustrate that the bound is similar in shape to the true error curve and that relative relationships are preserved. By choosing a different C in equation 1 for each curve, one can achieve complete control over their minima. In order to avoid this, we only use a single value of C = 1600 for all 12 curves on the top part of Figure 1. First note that in every pair of plots, the empirical error curves have a roughly convex shape that mimics the shape of the bounds. Furthermore the value of ? which minimizes the bound also has a low empirical error for each corresponding curve. This suggests that choosing ? to minimize the bound of Theorem 2 and subsequently training a classifier to minimize the empirical error ??? (h) can work well in practice, provided we have a reasonable measure of complexity.4 Figures 1a and 1b show that more distant source domains result in higher target error. Figures 1c and 1d illustrate that for more target data, we have not only lower error in general, but also a higher minimizing ?. Finally, figures 1e and 1f depict the limitation of distant source data. With enough target data, no matter how much source data we include, we always prefer to use only the target data. This is reflected in our bound as a phase transition in the value of the optimal ? (governing the tradeoff between source and target data). The phase transition occurs when mT = C/?(US , UT )2 (See Figure 2). 4 Although Theorem 2 does not hold uniformly for all ? as stated, this is easily remedied via an application of the union bound. The resulting bound will contain an additional logarithmic factor in the complexity term. 5 1 Target ?102 32 30 0.5 28 26 0 24 5,000 50,000 722,000 Source 11 million 167 million Figure 2: An example of the phase transition in the optimal ?. The value of ? which minimizes the bound is indicated by the intensity, where black means ? = 1 (corresponding to ignoring source and learning only from target data). We fix C = 1600 and ?(US , UT ) = 0.715, as in our sentiment results. The x-axis shows the number of source instances (log-scale). The y-axis shows the number of target instances. A phase transition occurs at 3,130 target instances. With more target instances than this, it is more effective to ignore even an infinite amount of source data. 5 Learning from Multiple Sources We now explore an extension of our theory to the case of multiple source domains. We are presented with data from N distinct sources. Each source Sj is associated with an unknown underlying distribution Dj over input points and an unknown labeling function fj . From each source Sj , we are given mj labeled training instances, and our goal is to use these instances to train a model to perform well on a target domain hDT , fT i, which may or may not be one of the sources. This setting is motivated by several new domain adaptation algorithms [10, 5, 11, 9] that weigh the loss from training instances depending on how ?far? they are from the target domain. That is, each training instance is its own source domain. As in the previous sections, we will examine algorithms that minimize convex combinations of training errors over the labeled examples from each source domain. As before, we let mj = ?j m P PN with j=1 ?j = 1. Given a vector ? = (?1 , ? ? ? , ?N ) of domain weights with j ?j = 1, we define the empirical ?-weighted error of function h as ??? (h) = N X j=1 ?j ??j (h) = N X ?j X |h(x) ? fj (x)| . mj j=1 x?Sj The true ?-weighted error ?? (h) is defined analogously. Let D? be a mixture of the N source distributions with mixing weights equal to the components of ?. Finally, analogous to ? in the single-source setting, we define the error of the multi-source ideal hypothesis for a weighting ? as ?? = min{?T (h) + ?? (h)} = min{?T (h) + h h N X ?j ?j (h)} . j=1 The following theorem gives a learning bound for empirical risk minimization using the empirical ?-weighted error. Theorem 3 Suppose we are given mj labeled instances from source Sj for j = 1 . . . N . For a fixed ? = argmin vector of weights ?, let h ?? (h), and let h?T = argminh?H ?T (h). Then for any h?H ? ? ? (0, 1), with probability at least 1 ? ? (over the choice of samples from each source), v u N 2r   uX ?j d log 2m ? log ? 1 ? ? ? ?T (h ) + 2t + 2 ? + d (D , D ) . ?T (h) ? H?H ? T T ? 2m 2 j=1 j 6 (a) Source. More girls than boys (b) Target. Separator from uniform mixture is suboptimal (c) Weighting sources to match target is optimal Females Males learned separator Females Males Target optimal separator errors optimal & learned separator learned separator Figure 3: A 1-dimensional example illustrating how non-uniform mixture weighting can result in optimal error. We observe one feature, which we use to predict gender. (a) At train time we observe more females than males. (b) Learning by uniformly weighting the training data causes us to learn a suboptimal decision boundary, (c) but by weighting the males more highly, we can match the target data and learn an optimal classifier. The full proof is in appendix C. Like the proof of Theorem 2, it is split into two parts. The first part bounds the difference between the ?-weighted error and the target error similar to lemma 1. The second is a uniform convergence bound for ??? (h) similar to lemma 2. Theorem 3 reduces to Theorem 2 when we have only two sources, one of which is the target domain (that is, we have some small number of target instances). It is more general, though, because by manipulating ? we can effectively change the source domain. This has two consequences. First, we demand that there exists a hypothesis h? which has low error on both the ?-weighted convex combination of sources and the target domain. Second, we measure distance between the target and a mixture of sources, rather than between the target and a single source. One question we might ask is whether there exist settings where a non-uniform weighting can lead to a significantly lower value of the bound than a uniform weighting. This can happen if some non-uniform weighting of sources accurately approximates the target domain. As a hypothetical example, suppose we are trying to predict gender from height (Figure 3). Each instance is drawn from a gender-specific Gaussian. In this example, we can find the optimal classifier by weighting the ?males? and ?females? components of the source to match the target. 6 Related Work Domain adaptation is a widely-studied area, and we cannot hope to cover every aspect and application of it here5 . Instead, in this section we focus on other theoretical approaches to domain adaptation. While we do not explicitly address the relationship in this paper, we note that domain adaptation is closely related to the setting of covariate shift, which has been studied in statistics. In addition to the work of Huang et al. [10], several other authors have considered learning by assigning separate weights to the components of the loss function corresponding to separate instances. Bickel at al. [5] and Jiang and Zhai [11] suggest promising empirical algorithms that in part inspire our Theorem 3. We hope that our work can help to explain when these algorithms are effective. Dai et al. [9] considered weighting instances using a transfer-aware variant of boosting, but the learning bounds they give are no stronger than bounds which completely ignore the source data. Crammer et al. [8] consider learning when the marginal distribution on instances is the same across sources but the labeling function may change. This corresponds in our theory to cases where dH?H = 0 but ? is large. Like us they consider multiple sources, but their notion of weighting is less general. They consider only including or discarding a source entirely. Li and Bilmes [13] give PAC-Bayesian learning bounds for adaptation using ?divergence priors?. They place source-centered prior on the parameters of a model learned in the target domain. Like 5 The NIPS 2006 Workshop on Learning When Test and Training Inputs have Different Distributions (http://ida.first.fraunhofer.de/projects/different06/) contains a good set of references on domain adaptation and related topics. 7 our model, the divergence prior also emphasizes the tradeoff between source and target. In our model, though, we measure the divergence (and consequently the bias) of the source domain from unlabeled data. This allows us to choose the best tradeoff between source and target labeled data. 7 Conclusion In this work we investigate the task of domain adaptation when we have a large amount of training data from a source domain but wish to apply a model in a target domain with a much smaller amount of training data. Our main result is a uniform convergence learning bound for algorithms which minimize convex combinations of source and target empirical risk. Our bound reflects the trade-off between the size of the source data and the accuracy of the target data, and we give a simple approximation to it that is computable from finite labeled and unlabeled samples. This approximation makes correct predictions about model test error for a sentiment classification task. Our theory also extends in a straightforward manner to a multi-source setting, which we believe helps to explain the success of recent empirical work in domain adaptation. Our future work has two related directions. First, we wish to tighten our bounds, both by considering more sophisticated measures of complexity [15, 2] and by focusing our distance measure on the most relevant features, rather than all the features. We also plan to investigate algorithms that choose a convex combination of multiple sources to minimize the bound in Theorem 3. 8 Acknowledgements This material is based upon work partially supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) under Contract No. NBCHD030010. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the DARPA or Department of Interior-National Business Center (DOI-NBC). References [1] M. Anthony and P. Bartlett. Neural Network Learning: Theoretical Foundations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999. [2] P. Barlett and S. Mendelson. Rademacher and gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. JMLR, 3:463?482, 2002. [3] S. Ben-David, J. Blitzer, K. Crammer, and F. Pereira. Analysis of representations for domain adaptation. In NIPS, 2007. [4] S. Ben-David, J. Gehrke, and D. Kifer. Detecting change in data streams. In VLDB, 2004. [5] S. Bickel, M. Br?uckner, and T. Scheffer. Discriminative learning for differing training and test distributions. In ICML, 2007. [6] J. Blitzer, M. Dredze, and F. Pereira. Biographies, bollywood, boomboxes and blenders: Domain adaptation for sentiment classification. In ACL, 2007. [7] C. Chelba and A. Acero. Empirical methods in natural language processing. In EMNLP, 2004. [8] K. Crammer, M. Kearns, and J. Wortman. Learning from multiple sources. In NIPS, 2007. [9] W. Dai, Q. Yang, G. Xue, and Y. Yu. Boosting for transfer learning. In ICML, 2007. [10] J. Huang, A. Smola, A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, and B. Schoelkopf. Correcting sample selection bias by unlabeled data. In NIPS, 2007. [11] J. Jiang and C. Zhai. Instance weighting for domain adaptation. In ACL, 2007. [12] C. Legetter and P. Woodland. Maximum likelihood linear regression for speaker adaptation of continuous density hidden markov models. Computer Speech and Language, 9:171?185, 1995. [13] X. Li and J. Bilmes. A bayesian divergence prior for classification adaptation. In AISTATS, 2007. [14] A. Martinez. Recognition of partially occluded and/or imprecisely localized faces using a probabilistic approach. In CVPR, 2007. [15] D. McAllester. Simplified PAC-Bayesian margin bounds. In COLT, 2003. [16] V. Vapnik. Statistical Learning Theory. John Wiley, New York, 1998. [17] P. Wu and T. Dietterich. Improving svm accuracy by training on auxiliary data sources. In ICML, 2004. 8
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Unconstrained Online Handwriting Recognition with Recurrent Neural Networks Alex Graves TUM, Germany [email protected] Santiago Fern?andez IDSIA, Switzerland [email protected] Horst Bunke University of Bern, Switzerland [email protected] Marcus Liwicki University of Bern, Switzerland [email protected] ? Jurgen Schmidhuber IDSIA, Switzerland and TUM, Germany [email protected] Abstract In online handwriting recognition the trajectory of the pen is recorded during writing. Although the trajectory provides a compact and complete representation of the written output, it is hard to transcribe directly, because each letter is spread over many pen locations. Most recognition systems therefore employ sophisticated preprocessing techniques to put the inputs into a more localised form. However these techniques require considerable human effort, and are specific to particular languages and alphabets. This paper describes a system capable of directly transcribing raw online handwriting data. The system consists of an advanced recurrent neural network with an output layer designed for sequence labelling, combined with a probabilistic language model. In experiments on an unconstrained online database, we record excellent results using either raw or preprocessed data, well outperforming a state-of-the-art HMM based system in both cases. 1 Introduction Handwriting recognition is traditionally divided into offline and online recognition. Offline recognition is performed on images of handwritten text. In online handwriting the location of the pen-tip on a surface is recorded at regular intervals, and the task is to map from the sequence of pen positions to the sequence of words. At first sight, it would seem straightforward to label raw online inputs directly. However, the fact that each letter or word is distributed over many pen positions poses a problem for conventional sequence labelling algorithms, which have difficulty processing data with long-range interdependencies. The problem is especially acute for unconstrained handwriting, where the writing style may be cursive, printed or a mix of the two, and the degree of interdependency is therefore difficult to determine in advance. The standard solution is to preprocess the data into a set of localised features. These features typically include geometric properties of the trajectory in the vicinity of every data point, pseudo-offline information from a generated image, and character level shape characteristics [6, 7]. Delayed strokes (such as the crossing of a ?t? or the dot of an ?i?) require special treatment because they split up the characters and therefore interfere with localisation. HMMs [6] and hybrid systems incorporating time-delay neural networks and HMMs [7] are commonly trained with such features. The issue of classifying preprocessed versus raw data has broad relevance to machine learning, and merits further discussion. Using hand crafted features often yields superior results, and in some cases can render classification essentially trivial. However, there are three points to consider in favour of raw data. Firstly, designing an effective preprocessor requires considerable time and expertise. Secondly, hand coded features tend to be more task specific. For example, features designed 1 for English handwriting could not be applied to languages with substantially different alphabets, such as Arabic or Chinese. In contrast, a system trained directly on pen movements could be applied to any alphabet. Thirdly, using raw data allows feature extraction to be built into the classifier, and the whole system to be trained together. For example, convolutional neural networks [10], in which a globally trained hierarchy of network layers is used to extract progressively higher level features, have proved effective at classifying raw images, such as objects in cluttered scenes or isolated handwritten characters [15, 11]. (Note than convolution nets are less suitable for unconstrained handwriting, because they require the text images to be presegmented into characters [10]). In this paper, we apply a recurrent neural network (RNN) to online handwriting recognition. The RNN architecture is bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory [3], chosen for its ability to process data with long time dependencies. The RNN uses the recently introduced connectionist temporal classification output layer [2], which was specifically designed for labelling unsegmented sequence data. An algorithm is introduced for applying grammatical constraints to the network outputs, thereby providing word level transcriptions. Experiments are carried out on the IAM online database [12] which contains forms of unconstrained English text acquired from a whiteboard. The performance of the RNN system using both raw and preprocessed input data is compared to that of an HMM based system using preprocessed data only [13]. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time whole sentences of unconstrained handwriting have been directly transcribed from raw online data. Section 2 describes the network architecture, the output layer and the algorithm for applying grammatical constraints. Section 3 provides experimental results, and conclusions are given in Section 4. 2 2.1 Method Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory One of the key benefits of RNNs is their ability to make use of previous context. However, for standard RNN architectures, the range of context that can in practice be accessed is limited. The problem is that the influence of a given input on the hidden layer, and therefore on the network output, either decays or blows up exponentially as it cycles around the recurrent connections. This is often referred to as the vanishing gradient problem [4]. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM; [5]) is an RNN architecture designed to address the vanishing gradient problem. An LSTM layer consists of multiple recurrently connected subnets, known as memory blocks. Each block contains a set of internal units, known as cells, whose activation is controlled by three multiplicative ?gate? units. The effect of the gates is to allow the cells to store and access information over long periods of time. For many tasks it is useful to have access to future as well past context. Bidirectional RNNs [14] achieve this by presenting the input data forwards and backwards to two separate hidden layers, both of which are connected to the same output layer. Bidirectional LSTM (BLSTM) [3] combines the above architectures to provide access to long-range, bidirectional context. 2.2 Connectionist Temporal Classification Connectionist temporal classification (CTC) [2] is an objective function designed for sequence labelling with RNNs. Unlike previous objective functions it does not require pre-segmented training data, or postprocessing to transform the network outputs into labellings. Instead, it trains the network to map directly from input sequences to the conditional probabilities of the possible labellings. A CTC output layer contains one more unit than there are elements in the alphabet L of labels for the task. The output activations are normalised with the softmax activation function [1]. At each time step, the first |L| outputs are used to estimate the probabilities of observing the corresponding labels. The extra output estimates the probability of observing a ?blank?, or no label. The combined output sequence estimates the joint probability of all possible alignments of the input sequence with all possible labellings. The probability of a particular labelling can then be estimated by summing over the probabilities of all the alignments that correspond to it. More precisely, for an input sequence x of length T , choosing a label (or blank) at every time step according to the probabilities implied by the network outputs defines a probability distribution 2 T over the set of length T sequences of labels and blanks. We denote this set L0 , where L0 = L ? T {blank}. To distinguish them from labellings, we refer to the elements of L0 as paths. Assuming that the label probabilities at each time step are conditionally independent given x, the conditional T probability of a path ? ? L0 is given by p(?|x) = T Y y?t t , (1) t=1 where ykt is the activation of output unit k at time t. Denote the set of sequences of length less than or equal to T on the alphabet L as L?T . Then Paths are mapped onto labellings l ? L?T by an operator B that removes first the repeated labels, then the blanks. For example, both B(a, ?, a, b, ?) and B(?, a, a, ?, ?, a, b, b) yield the labelling (a,a,b). Since the paths are mutually exclusive, the conditional probability of a given labelling l ? L?T is the sum of the probabilities of all paths corresponding to it: X p(l|x) = p(?|x). (2) ??B?1 (l) Although a naive calculation of the above sum would be unfeasible, it can be efficiently evaluated with a graph-based algorithm [2], similar to the forward-backward algorithm for HMMs. To allow for blanks in the output paths, for each label sequence l ? L?T consider a modified label ?T sequence l0 ? L0 , with blanks added to the beginning and the end and inserted between every pair of labels. The length of l0 is therefore |l0 | = 2|l| + 1. For a labelling l, define the forward variable ?t (s) as the summed probability of all paths whose length t prefixes are mapped by B onto the length s/2 prefix of l, i.e. ?t (s) = P (?1:t : B(?1:t ) = l1:s/2 , ?t = l0s |x) = t X Y 0 y?t t0 , (3) t0 =1 ?: B(?1:t )=l1:s/2 where, for some sequence s, sa:b is the subsequence (sa , sa+1 , ..., sb?1 , sb ), and s/2 is rounded down to an integer value. The backward variables ?t (s) are defined as the summed probability of all paths whose suffixes starting at t map onto the suffix of l starting at label s/2 ?t (s) = P (?t+1:T : B(?t:T ) = ls/2:|l| , ?t = l0s |x) = X T Y 0 y?t t0 (4) ?: t0 =t+1 B(?t:T )=ls/2:|l| Both the forward and backward variables are calculated recursively [2]. The label sequence probability is given by the sum of the products of the forward and backward variables at any time step: 0 p(l|x) = |l | X ?t (s)?t (s). (5) s=1 The objective function for CTC is the negative log probability of the network correctly labelling the entire training set. Let S be a training set, consisting of pairs of input and target sequences (x, z), where target sequence z is at most as long as input sequence x. Then the objective function is: X OCT C = ? ln (p(z|x)). (6) (x,z)?S The network can be trained with gradient descent by differentiating OCT C with respect to the outputs, then using backpropagation through time to differentiate with respect to the network weights. Noting that the same label (or blank) may be repeated several times for a single labelling l, we define the set of positions where label k occurs as lab(l, k) = {s : l0s = k}, which may be empty. We then set l = z and differentiate (5) with respect to the unnormalised network outputs atk to obtain: X ?ln (p(z|x)) ?OCT C 1 =? = ykt ? ?t (s)?t (s). (7) t t ?ak ?ak p(z|x) s?lab(z,k) 3 Once the network is trained, we would ideally label some unknown input sequence x by choosing the most probable labelling l? : l? = arg max p(l|x). (8) l Using the terminology of HMMs, we refer to the task of finding this labelling as decoding. Unfortunately, we do not know of a tractable decoding algorithm that is guaranteed to give optimal results. However a simple and effective approximation is given by assuming that the most probable path corresponds to the most probable labelling, i.e.   l? ? B arg max p(?|x) . (9) ? 2.3 Integration with an External Grammar For some tasks we want to constrain the output labellings according to a predefined grammar. For example, in speech and handwriting recognition, the final transcriptions are usually required to form sequences of dictionary words. In addition it is common practice to use a language model to weight the probabilities of particular sequences of words. We can express these constraints by altering the probabilities in (8) to be conditioned on some probabilistic grammar G, as well as the input sequence x: l? = arg max p(l|x, G). l (10) Absolute requirements, for example that l contains only dictionary words, can be incorporated by setting the probability of all sequences that fail to meet them to 0. At first sight, conditioning on G seems to contradict a basic assumption of CTC: that the labels are conditionally independent given the input sequences (see Eqn. (1)). Since the network attempts to model the probability of the whole labelling at once, there is nothing to stop it from learning inter-label transitions direct from the data, which would then be skewed by the external grammar. However, CTC networks are typically only able to learn local relationships such as commonly occurring pairs or triples of labels. Therefore as long as G focuses on long range label interactions (such as the probability of one word following another when the outputs are letters) it doesn?t interfere with the dependencies modelled by CTC. The basic rules of probability tell us that p(l|x, G) = p(l|x)p(l|G)p(x) , where we have used the fact p(x|G)p(l) that x is conditionally independent of G given l. If we assume x is independent of G, this reduces to p(l|x, G) = p(l|x)p(l|G) . That assumption is in general false, since both the input sequences and p(l) the grammar depend on the underlying generator of the data, for example the language being spoken. However it is a reasonable first approximation, and is particularly justifiable in cases where the grammar is created using data other than that from which x was drawn (as is common practice in speech and handwriting recognition, where independent textual corpora are used to generate language models). Finally, if we assume that all label sequences are equally probable prior to any knowledge about the input or the grammar, we can drop the p(l) term in the denominator to get l? = arg max p(l|x)p(l|G). l (11) Note that, since the number of possible label sequences is finite (because both L and |l| are finite), assigning equal prior probabilities does not lead to an improper prior. We now describe an algorithm, based on the token passing algorithm for HMMs [16], that allows us to find an approximate solution to (11) for a simple grammar. Let G consist of a dictionary D containing W words, and a set of W 2 bigrams p(w|w) ? that define the probability of making a transition from word w ? to word w. The probability of any labelling that does not form a sequence of dictionary words is 0. For each word w, define the modified word w0 as w with blanks added at the beginning and end and between each pair of labels. Therefore |w0 | = 2|w| + 1. Define a token tok = (score, history) to be a pair consisting of a real valued score and a history of previously visited words. In fact, 4 each token corresponds to a particular path through the network outputs, and its score is the log probability of that path. The basic idea of the token passing algorithm is to pass along the highest scoring tokens at every word state, then maximise over these to find the highest scoring tokens at the next state. The transition probabilities are used when a token is passed from the last state in one word to the first state in another. The output word sequence is given by the history of the highest scoring end-of-word token at the final time step. At every time step t of the length T output sequence, each segment s of each modified word w0 holds a single token tok(w, s, t). This is the highest scoring token reaching that segment at that time. In addition we define the input token tok(w, 0, t) to be the highest scoring token arriving at word w at time t, and the output token tok(w, ?1, t) to be the highest scoring token leaving word w at time t. 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: 21: 22: 23: 24: 25: 26: Initialisation: for all words w ? D do tok(w, 1, 1) = (ln(yb1 ), (w)) 1 tok(w, 2, 1) = (ln(yw ), (w)) 1 if |w| = 1 then tok(w, ?1, 1) = tok(w, 2, 1) else tok(w, ?1, 1) = (??, ()) tok(w, s, 1) = (??, ()) for all s 6= ?1 Algorithm: for t = 2 to T do sort output tokens tok(w, ?1, t ? 1) by ascending score for all words w ? D do w? = arg maxw?D tok(w, ? ?1, t ? 1).score + ln (p(w|w)) ? ? tok(w, 0, t).score = tok(w? , ?1, t ? 1).score + ln (p(w|w? )) tok(w, 0, t).history = tok(w? , ?1, t ? 1).history + w for segment s = 1 to |w0 | do P = {tok(w, s, t ? 1), tok(w, s ? 1, t ? 1)} 0 if ws0 6= blank and s > 2 and ws?2 6= ws0 then add tok(w, s ? 2, t ? 1) to P tok(w, s, t) = token in P with highest score t tok(w, s, t).score += ln(yw 0) s tok(w, ?1, t) = highest scoring of {tok(w, |w0 |, t), tok(w, |w0 | ? 1, t)} Termination: find output token tok ? (w, ?1, T ) with highest score at time T output tok ? (w, ?1, T ).history Algorithm 1: CTC Token Passing Algorithm The algorithm?s worst case complexity is O(T W 2 ), since line 14 requires a potential search through all W words. However, because the output tokens tok(w, ?1, T ) are sorted in order of score, the search can be terminated when a token is reached whose score is less than the current best score with the transition included. The typical complexity is therefore considerably lower, with a lower bound of O(T W logW ) to account for the sort. If no bigrams are used, lines 14-16 can be replaced by a simple search for the highest scoring output token, and the complexity reduces to O(T W ). Note that this is the same as the complexity of HMM decoding, if the search through bigrams is exhaustive. Much work has gone into developing more efficient decoding techniques (see e.g. [9]), typically by pruning improbable branches from the tree of labellings. Such methods are essential for applications where a rapid response is required, such as real time transcription. In addition, many decoders use more sophisticated language models than simple bigrams. Any HMM decoding algorithm could be applied to CTC outputs in the same way as token passing. However, we have stuck with a relatively basic algorithm since our focus here is on recognition rather than decoding. 5 3 Experiments The experimental task was online handwriting recognition, using the IAM-OnDB handwriting database [12], which is available for public download from http://www.iam.unibe.ch/ fki/iamondb/ For CTC, we record both the character error rate, and the word error rate using Algorithm 1 with a language model and a dictionary. For the HMM system, the word error rate is quoted from the literature [13]. Both the character and word error rate are defined as the total number of insertions, deletions and substitutions in the algorithm?s transcription of test set, divided by the combined length of the target transcriptions in the test set. We compare results using both raw inputs direct from the pen sensor, and a preprocessed input representation designed for HMMs. 3.1 Data and Preprocessing IAM-OnDB consists of pen trajectories collected from 221 different writers using a ?smart whiteboard? [12]. The writers were asked to write forms from the LOB text corpus [8], and the position of their pen was tracked using an infra-red device in the corner of the board. The input data consisted of the x and y pen coordinates, the points in the sequence when individual strokes (i.e. periods when the pen is pressed against the board) end, and the times when successive position measurements were made. Recording errors in the x, y data were corrected by interpolating to fill in for missing readings, and removing steps whose length exceeded a certain threshold. IAM-OnDB is divided into a training set, two validation sets, and a test set, containing respectively 5364, 1438, 1518 and 3859 written lines taken from 775, 192, 216 and 544 forms. The data sets contained a total of 3,298,424, 885,964, 1,036,803 and 2,425,5242 pen coordinates respectively. For our experiments, each line was used as a separate sequence (meaning that possible dependencies between successive lines were ignored). The character level transcriptions contain 80 distinct target labels (capital letters, lower case letters, numbers, and punctuation). A dictionary consisting of the 20, 000 most frequently occurring words in the LOB corpus was used for decoding, along with a bigram language model optimised on the training and validation sets [13]. 5.6% of the words in the test set were not in the dictionary. Two input representations were used. The first contained only the offset of the x, y coordinates from the top left of the line, the time from the beginning of the line, and the marker for the ends of strokes. We refer to this as the raw input representation. The second representation used state-of-theart preprocessing and feature extraction techniques [13]. We refer to this as the preprocessed input representation. Briefly, in order to account for the variance in writing styles, the pen trajectories were normalised with respect to such properties as the slant, skew and width of the letters, and the slope of the line as a whole. Two sets of input features were then extracted, the first consisting of ?online? features, such as pen position, pen speed, line curvature etc., and the second consisting of ?offline? features created from a two dimensional window of the image created by the pen. 3.2 Experimental Setup The CTC network used the BLSTM architecture, as described in Section 2.1. The forward and backward hidden layers each contained 100 single cell memory blocks. The input layer was fully connected to the hidden layers, which were fully connected to themselves and the output layer. The output layer contained 81 units (80 characters plus the blank label). For the raw input representation, there were 4 input units and a total of 100,881 weights. For the preprocessed representation, there were 25 inputs and 117,681 weights. tanh was used for the cell activation functions and logistic sigmoid in the range [0, 1] was used for the gates. For both input representations, the data was normalised so that each input had mean 0 and standard deviation 1 on the training set. The network was trained with online gradient descent, using a learning rate of 10?4 and a momentum of 0.9. Training was stopped after no improvement was recorded on the validation set for 50 training epochs. The HMM setup [13] contained a separate, left-to-right HMM with 8 states for each character (8 ? 81 = 648 states in total). Diagonal mixtures of 32 Gaussians were used to estimate the observation 6 Table 1: Word Error Rate (WER) on IAM-OnDB. LM = language model. CTC results are a mean over 4 runs, ? standard error. All differences were significant (p < 0.01) System HMM CTC CTC CTC CTC Input preprocessed raw preprocessed raw preprocessed LM X 7 7 X X WER 35.5% [13] 30.1 ? 0.5% 26.0 ? 0.3% 22.8 ? 0.2% 20.4 ? 0.3% probabilities. All parameters, including the word insertion penalty and the grammar scale factor, were optimised on the validation set. 3.3 Results The character error rate for the CTC network with the preprocessed inputs was 11.5 ? 0.05%. From Table 1 we can see that with a dictionary and a language model this translates into a mean word error rate of 20.4%, which is a relative error reduction of 42.5% compared to the HMM. Without the language model, the error reduction was 26.8%. With the raw input data CTC achieved a character error rate of 13.9 ? 0.1%, and word error rates that were close to those recorded with the preprocessed data, particularly when the language model was present. The key difference between the input representations is that the raw data is less localised, and therefore requires more use of context. A useful indication of the network?s sensitivity to context is provided by the derivatives of the output ykt at a particular point t in the data sequence with respect 0 to the inputs xtk at all points 1 ? t0 ? T . We refer to these derivatives as the sequential Jacobian. Looking at the relative magnitude of the sequential Jacobian over time gives an idea of the range of context used, as illustrated in Figure 1. 4 Conclusion We have combined a BLSTM CTC network with a probabilistic language model. We have applied this system to an online handwriting database and obtained results that substantially improve on a state-of-the-art HMM based system. We have also shown that the network?s performance with raw sensor inputs is comparable to that with sophisticated preprocessing. As far as we are aware, our system is the first to successfully recognise unconstrained online handwriting using raw inputs only. Acknowledgments This research was funded by EC Sixth Framework project ?NanoBioTact?, SNF grant 200021111968/1, and the SNF program ?Interactive Multimodal Information Management (IM)2?. References [1] J. S. Bridle. Probabilistic interpretation of feedforward classification network outputs, with relationships to statistical pattern recognition. In F. Fogleman-Soulie and J.Herault, editors, Neurocomputing: Algorithms, Architectures and Applications, pages 227?236. Springer-Verlag, 1990. [2] A. Graves, S. Fern?andez, F. Gomez, and J. Schmidhuber. Connectionist temporal classification: Labelling unsegmented sequence data with recurrent neural networks. In Proc. 23rd Int. Conf. on Machine Learning, Pittsburgh, USA, 2006. [3] A. Graves and J. Schmidhuber. Framewise phoneme classification with bidirectional LSTM and other neural network architectures. Neural Networks, 18(5-6):602?610, June/July 2005. [4] S. Hochreiter, Y. Bengio, P. Frasconi, and J. Schmidhuber. Gradient flow in recurrent nets: the difficulty of learning long-term dependencies. In S. C. Kremer and J. F. Kolen, editors, A Field Guide to Dynamical Recurrent Neural Networks. IEEE Press, 2001. [5] S. Hochreiter and J. Schmidhuber. Long Short-Term Memory. Neural Comp., 9(8):1735?1780, 1997. [6] J. Hu, S. G. Lim, and M. K. Brown. Writer independent on-line handwriting recognition using an HMM approach. Pattern Recognition, 33:133?147, 2000. 7 Figure 1: Sequential Jacobian for an excerpt from the IAM-OnDB, with raw inputs (left) and preprocessed inputs (right). For ease of visualisation, only the derivative with highest absolute value is plotted at each time step. The reconstructed image was created by plotting the pen coordinates recorded by the sensor. The individual strokes are alternately coloured red and black. For both representations, the Jacobian is plotted for the output corresponding to the label ?i? at the point when ?i? is emitted (indicated by the vertical dashed lines). Because bidirectional networks were used, the range of sensitivity extends in both directions from the dashed line. For the preprocessed data, the Jacobian is sharply peaked around the time when the output is emitted. For the raw data it is more spread out, suggesting that the network makes more use of long-range context. Note the spike in sensitivity to the very end of the raw input sequence: this corresponds to the delayed dot of the ?i?. [7] S. Jaeger, S. Manke, J. Reichert, and A. Waibel. On-line handwriting recognition: the NPen++ recognizer. Int. Journal on Document Analysis and Recognition, 3:169?180, 2001. [8] S. Johansson, R. Atwell, R. Garside, and G. Leech. The tagged LOB corpus user?s manual; Norwegian Computing Centre for the Humanities, 1986. [9] P. Lamere, P. Kwok, W. Walker, E. Gouvea, R. Singh, B. Raj, and P. Wolf. Design of the CMU Sphinx-4 decoder. In Proc. 8th European Conf. on Speech Communication and Technology, Aug. 2003. [10] Y. LeCun, L. Bottou, Y. Bengio, and P. Haffner. Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition. Proc. IEEE, 86(11):2278?2324, Nov. 1998. [11] Y. LeCun, F. Huang, and L. Bottou. Learning methods for generic object recognition with invariance to pose and lighting. In Proc. of CVPR?04. IEEE Press, 2004. [12] M. Liwicki and H. Bunke. IAM-OnDB - an on-line English sentence database acquired from handwritten text on a whiteboard. In Proc. 8th Int. Conf. on Document Analysis and Recognition, volume 2, pages 956?961, 2005. [13] M. Liwicki, A. Graves, S. Fern?andez, H. Bunke, and J. Schmidhuber. A novel approach to on-line handwriting recognition based on bidirectional long short-term memory networks. In Proc. 9th Int. Conf. on Document Analysis and Recognition, Curitiba, Brazil, Sep. 2007. [14] M. Schuster and K. K. Paliwal. Bidirectional recurrent neural networks. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 45:2673?2681, Nov. 1997. [15] P. Y. Simard, D. Steinkraus, and J. C. Platt. Best practices for convolutional neural networks applied to visual document analysis. In Proc. 7th Int. Conf. on Document Analysis and Recognition, page 958, Washington, DC, USA, 2003. IEEE Computer Society. [16] S. Young, N. Russell, and J. Thornton. Token passing: A simple conceptual model for connected speech recognition systems. Technical Report CUED/F-INFENG/TR38, Cambridge University Eng. Dept., 1989. 8
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo with People Adam N. Sanborn Psychological and Brain Sciences Indiana University Bloomington, IN 47045 [email protected] Thomas L. Griffiths Department of Psychology University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 tom [email protected] Abstract Many formal models of cognition implicitly use subjective probability distributions to capture the assumptions of human learners. Most applications of these models determine these distributions indirectly. We propose a method for directly determining the assumptions of human learners by sampling from subjective probability distributions. Using a correspondence between a model of human choice and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we describe a method for sampling from the distributions over objects that people associate with different categories. In our task, subjects choose whether to accept or reject a proposed change to an object. The task is constructed so that these decisions follow an MCMC acceptance rule, defining a Markov chain for which the stationary distribution is the category distribution. We test this procedure for both artificial categories acquired in the laboratory, and natural categories acquired from experience. 1 Introduction Determining the assumptions that guide human learning and inference is one of the central goals of cognitive science. Subjective probability distributions are used to model the degrees of belief that learners assign to hypotheses in many domains, including categorization, decision making, and memory [1, 2, 3, 4]. If the knowledge of learners can be modeled in this way, then exploring this knowledge becomes a matter of asking questions about the nature of their associated probability distributions. A common way to learn about a probability distribution is to draw samples from it. In the machine learning and statistics literature, drawing samples from probability distributions is a major area of research, and is often done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this paper, we describe a method for directly obtaining information about subjective probability distributions, by having people act as elements of an MCMC algorithm. Our approach is to design a task that will allow us to sample from a particular subjective probability distribution. Much research has been devoted to relating the magnitude of psychological responses to choice probabilities, resulting in mathematical models of these tasks. We point out an equivalence between a model of human choice behavior and an MCMC acceptance function, and use this equivalence to develop a method for obtaining samples from a subjective distribution. In this way we can use the power of MCMC algorithms to explore the knowledge of human learners. The plan of the paper is as follows. In Section 2, we describe MCMC in general and the Metropolis method and Barker acceptance function in particular. Section 3 describes the experimental task we use to connect human judgments to MCMC. In Section 4, we present an experiment showing that this method can be used to recover trained category distributions from human judgments. Section 5 gives a demonstration of our MCMC method applied to recovering natural categories of animal shape. Section 6 summarizes the results and discusses some implications. 1 2 Markov chain Monte Carlo Models of physical phenomena used by scientists are often expressed in terms of complex probability distributions over different events. Generating samples from these distributions can be an efficient way to determine their properties, indicating which events are assigned high probabilities and providing a way to approximate various statistics of interest. Often, the distributions used in these models are difficult to sample from, being defined over large state spaces or having unknown normalization constants. Consequently, a great deal of research has been devoted to developing sophisticated Monte Carlo algorithms that can be used to generate samples from complex probability distributions. One of the most successful methods of this kind is Markov chain Monte Carlo. An MCMC algorithm constructs a Markov chain that has the target distribution, from which we want to sample, as its stationary distribution. This Markov chain can be initialized with any state, being guaranteed to converge to its stationary distribution after many iterations of stochastic transitions between states. After convergence, the states visited by the Markov chain can be used similarly to samples from the target distribution (see [5] for details). The canonical MCMC algorithm is the Metropolis method [6], in which transitions between states have two parts: a proposal distribution and an acceptance function. Based on the current state, a candidate for the next state is sampled from the proposal distribution. The acceptance function gives the probability of accepting this proposal. If the proposal is rejected, then the current state is taken as the next state. A variety of acceptance functions guarantee that the stationary distribution of the resulting Markov chain is the target distribution [7]. If we assume that the proposal distribution is symmetric, with the probability of proposing a new state x? from the current state x being the same as the probability of proposing x from x? , we can use the Barker acceptance function [8], giving ?(x? ) ?(x? ) + ?(x) A(x? ; x) = (1) for the acceptance probability, where ?(x) is the probability of x under the target distribution. 3 An acceptance function from human behavior While our approach can be applied to any subjective probability distribution, our experiments focused on sampling from the distributions over objects associated with different categories. Categories are central to cognition, reflecting our knowledge of the structure of the world, supporting inferences, and serving as the basic units of thought. The way people group objects into categories has been studied extensively, producing a number of formal models of human categorization [3, 4, 9, 10, 11], almost all of which can be interpreted as defining a category as a probability distribution over objects [4]. In this section, we consider how to lead people to choose between two objects in a way that would correspond to a valid acceptance function for an MCMC algorithm with the distribution over objects associated with a category as its target distribution. 3.1 A Bayesian analysis of a choice task Consider the following task. You are shown two objects, x1 and x2 , and told that one of those objects comes from a particular category, c. You have to choose which object you think comes from that category. How should you make this decision? We can analyze this choice task from the perspective of a rational Bayesian learner. The choice between the objects is a choice between two hypotheses: The first hypothesis, h1 , is that x1 is drawn from the category distribution p(x|c) and x2 is drawn from g(x), an alternative distribution that governs the probability of other objects appearing on the screen. The second hypothesis, h2 , is that x1 is from the alternative distribution and x2 is from the category distribution. The posterior probability of the first hypothesis given the data is determined via Bayes? rule, p(h1 |x1 , x2 ) = = p(x1 , x2 |h1 )p(h1 ) p(x1 , x2 |h1 )p(h1 ) + p(x1 , x2 |h2 )p(h2 ) p(x1 |c)g(x2 )p(h1 ) p(x1 |c)g(x2 )p(h1 ) + p(x2 |c)g(x1 )p(h2 ) 2 (2) where we use the category distribution p(x|c) and its alternative g(x) to calculate p(x1 , x2 |h). We will now make two assumptions. The first assumption is that the prior probabilities of the hypotheses are the same. Since there is no a priori reason to favor one of the objects over the other, this assumption seems reasonable. The second assumption is that the probabilities of the two stimuli under the alternative distribution are approximately equal, with g(x1 ) ? g(x2 ). If people assume that the alternative distribution is uniform, then the probabilities of the two stimuli will be exactly equal. However, the probabilities will still be roughly equal under the weaker assumption that the alternative distribution is fairly smooth and x1 and x2 differ by only a small amount relative to the support of that distribution. With these assumptions Equation 2 becomes p(h1 |x1 , x2 ) ? p(x1 |c) p(x1 |c) + p(x2 |c) (3) with the posterior probability of h1 being set by the probabilities of x1 and x2 in that category. 3.2 From a task to an acceptance function The Bayesian analysis of the task described above results in a posterior probability of h1 (Equation 3) which has a similar form to the Barker acceptance function (Equation 1). If we return to the context of MCMC, and assume that x1 is the proposal x? and x2 the current state x, and that people choose x1 with probability equal to the posterior probability of h1 , then x? is chosen with probability A(x? ; x) = p(x? |c) p(x? |c) + p(x|c) (4) being the Barker acceptance function for the target distribution ?(x) = p(x|c). This equation has a long history as a model of human choice probabilities, where it is known as the Luce choice rule or the ratio rule [12, 13]. This rule has been shown to provide a good fit to human data when people choose between two stimuli based on a particular property [14, 15, 16]. It corresponds to a situation in which people choose alternatives based on their relative probabilities, a common behavior known as probability matching [17]. The Luce choice rule has also been used to convert psychological response magnitudes into response probabilities in many models of cognition [11, 18, 19, 20, 21]. 3.3 A more flexible response rule Probability matching can be a good description of the data, but subjects have been shown to produce behavior that is more deterministic [17]. Several models of categorization have been extended in order to account for this behavior [22] by using an exponentiated version of Equation 4 to map category probabilities onto response probabilities, A(x? ; x) = p(x? |c)? p(x? |c)? + p(x|c)? (5) where ? raises each term on the right side of Equation 4 to a constant. This response rule can be derived by applying a soft threshold to the log odds of the two hypotheses (a sigmoid function with a gain of ?). As ? increases the hypothesis with higher posterior probability will be chosen more often. By equivalence to the Barker acceptance function, this response rule defines a Markov chain with stationary distribution ?(x) ? p(x|c)? . (6) Thus, using the weaker assumptions of Equation 5 as a model of human behavior, we can estimate the category distribution p(x|c) up to a constant exponent. This estimate will have the same modes and ordering of variances on the variables, but the actual values of the variances will differ. 3.4 Summary Based on the results in this section, we can define a simple method for drawing samples from a category distribution using MCMC. On each trial, a proposal is drawn from a symmetric distribution. A person chooses between the current state and the proposal to select the new state. Assuming that people?s choice behavior follows the Luce choice rule, the stationary distribution of the Markov chain is the category distribution. The states of the chain are samples from the category distribution, which provide information about the mental representation of that category. 3 4 Testing the MCMC algorithm with known categories To test whether the procedure outlined in the previous section will produce samples that accurately reflect people?s mental representations, we trained people on a variety of category distributions and attempted to recover those distributions using MCMC. A simple one-dimensional categorization task was used, with the height of schematic fish (see Figure 1) being the dimension along which category distributions were defined. Subjects were trained on two categories of fish height ? a uniform distribution and a Gaussian distribution ? being told that they were learning to judge whether a fish came from the ocean (the uniform distribution) or a fish farm (the Gaussian distribution). Four between-subject conditions tested different means and variances for the Gaussian distributions. Once subjects were trained, we collected MCMC samples for the Gaussian distributions by asking subjects to judge which of two fish came from the fish farm. 4.1 Method Fifty subjects were recruited from the university community via a newspaper advertisement. Data from one subject was discarded for not finishing the experiment, data from another was discarded because the chains reached a boundary, and the data of eight others were discarded because their chains did not cross (more detail below). There were ten observers in each between-subject condition. Each subject was paid $4 for a 35 minute session. The experiment was presented on a Apple iMac G5 controlled by a script running in Matlab using PsychToolbox extensions [23, 24]. Observers were seated approximately 44 cm away from the display. Each subject was trained to discriminate between two categories of fish: ocean fish and fish farm fish. Subjects were instructed, ?Fish from the ocean have to fend for themselves and as a result they have an equal probability of being any size. In contrast, fish from the fish farm are all fed the same amount of food, so their sizes are similar and only determined by genetics.? These instructions were meant to suggest that the ocean fish were drawn from a uniform distribution and the fish farm fish were drawn from a Gaussian distribution. The mean and the standard deviation of the Gaussian were varied in four between-subject conditions, resulting from crossing two levels of the mean, ? = 3.66 cm and ? = 4.72 cm, with two levels of the standard deviation, ? = 3.1 mm and ? = 1.3 mm. The uniform distribution was the same across training distributions and was bounded at 2.63 cm and 5.76 cm. The stimuli were a modified version of the fish used in [25]. The fish were constructed from three ovals, two gray and one black, and a circle on a black background. Fish were all 9.1 cm long with heights drawn from the Gaussian and uniform distributions in training. Examples of the smallest and largest fish are shown in Figure 1. During the the MCMC trials, the range of possible fish heights was expanded to be from 0.3 mm to 8.35 cm. Subjects saw two types of trials. In a training trial, either the uniform or Gaussian distribution was selected with equal probability, and a single sample was drawn from the selected distribution. The sampled fish was shown to the subject, who chose which distribution produced the fish. Feedback was then provided on the accuracy of this choice. In an MCMC trial, two fish were presented on the screen. Subjects chose which of the two fish came from the Gaussian distribution. Neither fish had been sampled from the Gaussian distribution. Instead, one fish was the state of a Markov chain and the other fish was the proposal. The state and proposal were unlabeled and they were randomly assigned to either the left or right side of the screen. Three MCMC chains were interleaved during the MCMC trials. The start states of the chains were chosen to be 2.63 cm, 4.20 cm, and 5.76 cm. Relative to the training distributions, the start states were overdispersed, facilitating assessment of Figure 1: Examples of the largest and smallest fish stimuli presented to subjects during training. The relative size of the fish stimuli are shown here; true display sizes are given in the text. 4 Fish Width (cm) 5 4 3 Subject 44 5 4 3 Subject 30 5 4 3 Subject 37 5 4 3 Subject 19 10 20 30 40 50 Trial Number 60 70 80 Training Kernel Gaussian Density Fit Figure 2: The four rows are subjects from each of the between-subject conditions. The panels in the first column show the behavior of the three Markov chains per subject. The black lines represent the states of the Markov chains, the dashed line is the mean of the Gaussian training distribution, and the dot-dashed lines are two standard deviations from the mean. The second column shows the densities of the training distributions. These training densities can be compared to the MCMC samples, which are described by their kernel density estimates and Gaussian fits in the last two columns. convergence. The proposal was chosen from a symmetric discretized pseudo-Gaussian distribution with a mean equal to the current state. The probability of proposing the current state was set to zero. The experiment was broken up into blocks of training and MCMC trials, beginning with 120 training trials, followed by alternating blocks of 60 MCMC trials and 60 training trials. Training and MCMC trials were interleaved to keep subjects from forgetting the training distributions. A block of 60 test trials, identical to the training trials but without feedback, ended the experiment. 4.2 Results Subjects were excluded if their chains did not converge to the stationary distribution or if the state of any chain reached the edge of the parameter range. We used a heuristic for determining convergence: every chain had to cross another chain.1 Figure 2 shows the chains from four subjects, one from each of the between-subject conditions. Most subjects took approximately 20 trials to produce the first crossing in their chains, so these trials were discarded and the remaining 60 trials from each chain were pooled and used in further analyses. The distributions on the right hand side of Figure 2 show the training distribution, best fit Gaussian to the MCMC samples, and kernel density estimate based on the MCMC samples. The distributions estimated for the subjects shown in this figure match well with the training distribution. The mean, ?, and standard deviation, ?, were computed from the MCMC samples produced by each subject. The average of these estimates for each condition is shown in Figure 3. As predicted, ? was higher for subjects trained on Gaussians with higher means, and ? was higher for subjects trained on Gaussians with higher standard deviations. These differences were statistically significant, with a one-tailed Student?s t-test for independent samples giving t(38) = 7.36, p < 0.001 and t(38) = 2.01, p < 0.05 for ? and ? respectively. The figure also shows that the means of the MCMC samples corresponded well with the actual means of the training distributions. The standard deviations of the samples tended to be higher than the training distributions, which could be a consequence of either perceptual 1 Many heuristics have been proposed for assessing convergence. The heuristic we used is simple to apply in a one-dimensional state space. It is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for convergence. 5 Trained Gaussian (cm) ? = 4.72, ? = 0.31 ? = 4.72, ? = 0.13 ? = 3.66, ? = 0.31 ? = 3.66, ? = 0.13 0 1 2 3 ? 4 5 6 0 0.2 ? 0.4 0.6 Mean of Estimates from MCMC Samples (cm) Figure 3: The bar plots show the mean of ? and ? across the MCMC samples produced by subjects in all four training conditions. Error bars are one standard error. The black dot indicates the actual value of ? and ? for each condition. noise (increasing the effective variation in stimuli associated with a category) or choices being made in a way consistent with the exponentiated choice rule with ? < 1. 5 Investigating the structure of natural categories The previous experiment provided evidence that the assumptions underlying the MCMC method are approximately correct, as the samples recovered by the method matched the training distribution. Now we will demonstrate this method in a much more interesting case: sampling from subjective probability distributions that have been built up from real-world experience. The natural categories of the shapes of giraffes, horses, cats, and dogs were explored in a nine-dimensional stick figure space [26]. The responses of a single subject are shown in Figure 4. For each animal, three Markov chains were started from different states. The three starting states were the same between animal conditions. Figure 4B shows the chains converging for the giraffe condition. The different animal conditions converged to different areas of the parameter space (Figure 4C) and the means across samples produced stick figures that correspond well to the tested categories (Figure 4D). 6 Summary and conclusion We have developed a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from a subjective probability distribution. This method allows a person to act as an element of an MCMC algorithm by constructing a task for which choice probabilities follow a valid acceptance function. By choosing between the current state and a proposal, people produce a Markov chain with a stationary distribution matching their mental representation of a category. The results of our experiment indicate that this method accurately uncovers differences in mental representations that result from training people on categories with different structures. In addition, we explored the subjective probability distributions of natural animal shapes in a multidimensional parameter space. This method is a complement to established methods such as classification images [27]. Our method estimates the subjective probability distribution, while classification images estimate the decision boundary between two classes. Both methods can contribute to the complete picture of how people make categorization decisions. The MCMC method corresponds most closely to procedures for gathering typicality ratings in categorization research. Typicality ratings are used to determine which objects are better examples of a category than other objects. Our MCMC method yields the same information, but provides a way to efficiently do so when the category distribution is concentrated in a small region of a large parameter space. Testing a random subset of objects from this type of space will result in many uninformative trials. MCMC?s use of previous responses to select new test trials is theoretically more efficient, but future work is needed to empirically validate this claim. Our MCMC method provides a way to explore the subjective probability distributions that people associate with categories. Similar tasks could be used to investigate subjective probability distributions in other settings, providing a valuable tool for testing probabilistic models of cognition. The general principle of identifying connections between models of human performance and machine learning algorithms can teach us a great deal about cognition. For instance, Gibbs sampling could 6 Figure 4: Task and results for an experiment exploring natural categories of animals using stick figure stimuli. (A) Screen capture from the experiment, where people make a choice between the current state of the Markov chain and a proposed state. (B) States of the Markov chain for the subject when estimating the distribution for giraffes. The nine-dimensional space characterizing the stick figures is projected onto the two dimensions that best discriminate the different animal distributions using linear discriminant analysis. Each chain is a different color and the start states of the chains are indicated by the filled circle. The dotted lines are samples that were discarded to ensure that the Markov chains had converged, and the solid lines are the samples that were retained. (C) Samples from distributions associated with all four animals for the subject, projected onto the same plane used in B. Two samples from each distribution are displayed in the bubbles. The samples capture the similarities and differences between the four categories of animals, and reveal the variation in the members of those categories.(D) Mean of the samples for each animal condition. 7 be used to generate samples from a distribution, if a clever method for inducing people to sample from conditional distributions could be found. Using people as the elements of a machine learning algorithm is a virtually unexplored area that should be exploited in order to more efficiently test hypotheses about the knowledge that guides human learning and inference. References [1] M. Oaksford and N. Chater, editors. Rational models of cognition. Oxford University Press, 1998. [2] N. Chater, J. B. Tenenbaum, and A. Yuille. Special issue on ?Probabilistic models of cognition?. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10(7), 2006. [3] J. R. Anderson. The adaptive character of thought. Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1990. [4] F. G. Ashby and L. A. Alfonso-Reese. Categorization as probability density estimation. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 39:216?233, 1995. [5] W.R. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter, editors. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman and Hall, Suffolk, 1996. [6] A. W. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, and E. Teller. Equations of state calculations by fast computing machines. Journal of Chemical Physics, 21:1087?1092, 1953. [7] W. K. Hastings. Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika, 57:97?109, 1970. [8] A. A. Barker. Monte Carlo calculations of the radial distribution functions for a proton-electron plasma. Australian Journal of Physics, 18:119?133, 1965. [9] S. K. Reed. Pattern recognition and categorization. Cognitive Psychology, 3:393?407, 1972. [10] D. L. Medin and M. M. Schaffer. Context theory of classification learning. Psychological Review, 85:207? 238, 1978. [11] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention, similarity, and the identification-categorization relationship. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 115:39?57, 1986. [12] R. D. Luce. Detection and recognition. In R. D. Luce, R. R. Bush, and E. Galanter, editors, Handbook of Mathematical Psychology, Volume 1, pages 103?190. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York and London, 1963. [13] R. N. Shepard. Stimulus and response generalization: A stochastic model relating generalization to distance in psychological space. Psychometrika, 22:325?345, 1957. [14] R. A. Bradley. Incomplete block rank analysis: On the appropriateness of the model of a method of paired comparisons. Biometrics, 10:375?390, 1954. [15] F. R. Clarke. Constant-ratio rule for confusion matrices in speech communication. The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 29:715?720, 1957. [16] J. W. Hopkins. Incomplete block rank analysis: Some taste test results. Biometrics, 10:391?399, 1954. [17] N. Vulkan. An economist?s perspective on probability matching. Journal of Economic Surveys, 14:101? 118, 2000. [18] F. G. Ashby. Multidimensional models of perception and cognition. Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1992. [19] R. M. Nosofsky. Attention and learning processes in the identification and categorization of integral stimuli. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 13:87?108, 1987. [20] G. C. Oden and D. W. Massaro. Integration of featural information in speech perception. Psychological Review, 85:172?191, 1978. [21] J. L. McClelland and J. L. Elman. The TRACE model of speech perception. Cognitive Psychology, 18:1?86, 1986. [22] F. G. Ashby and W. T. Maddox. Relations between prototype, exemplar, and decision bound models of categorization. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 37:372?400, 1993. [23] D. H. Brainard. The psychophysics toolbox. Spatial Vision, 10:433?436, 1997. [24] D. G. Pelli. The VideoToolbox software for visual psychophysics: Transforming numbers into movies. Spatial Vision, 10:437?442, 1997. [25] J. Huttenlocher, L. V. Hedges, and J. L. Vevea. Why do categories affect stimulus judgment? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 129:220?241, 2000. [26] C. Olman and D. Kersten. Classification objects, ideal observers, and generative models. Cognitive Science, 28:227?239, 2004. [27] A. J. Ahumada and J. Lovell. Stimulus features in signal detection. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 49:1751?1756, 1971. 8
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Learning with Transformation Invariant Kernels Christian Walder Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics 72076 T?ubingen, Germany [email protected] Olivier Chapelle Yahoo! Research Santa Clara, CA [email protected] Abstract This paper considers kernels invariant to translation, rotation and dilation. We show that no non-trivial positive definite (p.d.) kernels exist which are radial and dilation invariant, only conditionally positive definite (c.p.d.) ones. Accordingly, we discuss the c.p.d. case and provide some novel analysis, including an elementary derivation of a c.p.d. representer theorem. On the practical side, we give a support vector machine (s.v.m.) algorithm for arbitrary c.p.d. kernels. For the thinplate kernel this leads to a classifier with only one parameter (the amount of regularisation), which we demonstrate to be as effective as an s.v.m. with the Gaussian kernel, even though the Gaussian involves a second parameter (the length scale). 1 Introduction Recent years have seen widespread application of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (r.k.h.s.) based methods to machine learning problems (Sch?olkopf & Smola, 2002). As a result, kernel methods have been analysed to considerable depth. In spite of this, the aspects which we presently investigate seem to have received insufficient attention, at least within the machine learning community. The first is transformation invariance of the kernel, a topic touched on in (Fleuret & Sahbi, 2003). Note we do not mean by this the local invariance (or insensitivity) of an algorithm to application specific transformations which should not affect the class label, such as one pixel image translations (see e.g. (Chapelle & Sch?olkopf, 2001)). Rather we are referring to global invariance to transformations, in the way that radial kernels (i.e. those of the form k(x, y) = ?(kx ? yk)) are invariant to translations. In Sections 2 and 3 we introduce the more general concept of transformation scaledness, focusing on translation, dilation and orthonormal transformations. An interesting result is that there exist no non-trivial p.d. kernel functions which are radial and dilation scaled. There do exist non-trivial c.p.d. kernels with the stated invariances however. Motivated by this, we analyse the c.p.d. case in Section 4, giving novel elementary derivations of some key results, most notably a c.p.d. representer theorem. We then give in Section 6.1 an algorithm for applying the s.v.m. with arbitrary c.p.d. kernel functions. It turns out that this is rather useful in practice, for the following reason. Due to its invariances, the c.p.d. thin-plate kernel which we discuss in Section 5, is not only richly non-linear, but enjoys a duality between the length-scale parameter and the regularisation parameter of Tikhonov regularised solutions such as the s.v.m. In Section 7 we compare the resulting classifier (which has only a regularisation parameter), to that of the s.v.m. with Gaussian kernel (which has an additional length scale parameter). The results show that the two algorithms perform roughly as well as one another on a wide range of standard machine learning problems, notwithstanding the new method?s advantage in having only one free parameter. In Section 8 we make some concluding remarks. 1 2 Transformation Scaled Spaces and Tikhonov Regularisation Definition 2.1. Let T be a bijection on X and F a Hilbert space of functions on some non-empty set X such that f 7? f ? T is a bijection on F. F is T -scaled if hf, giF = gT (F) hf ? T , g ? T iF (1) + for all f ? F, where gT (F) ? R is the norm scaling function associated with the operation of T on F. If gT (F) = 1 we say that F is T -invariant. The following clarifies the behaviour of Tikhonov regularised solutions in such spaces. Lemma 2.2. For any ? : F ? ? ? R and T such that f 7? f ? T is a bijection of F, if the left hand side is unique then   arg min ?(f ) = arg min ?(fT ? T ) ? T f ?F fT ?F Proof. Let f ? = arg minf ?F ?(f ) and fT? = arg minfT ?F ?(fT ? T ). By definition we have that ?g ? F, ?(fT? ? T ) ? ?(g ? T ). But since f 7? f ? T is a bijection on F, we also have ?g ? F, ?(fT? ? T ) ? ?(g). Hence, given the uniqueness, this implies f ? = fT? ? T . The following Corollary follows immediately from Lemma 2.2 and Definition 2.1. Corollary 2.3. Let Li be any loss function. If F is T -scaled and the left hand side is unique then      X X 2 2 arg min kf kF + Li (f (xi )) = arg min kf kF /gT (F) + Li (f (T xi )) ?T. f ?F i f ?F i Corollary 2.3 includes various learning algorithms for various choices of Li ? for example the s.v.m. with linear hinge loss for Li (t) = max (0, 1 ? yi t), and kernel ridge regression for Li (t) = 2 (yi ? t) . Let us now introduce the specific transformations we will be considering. Definition 2.4. Let Ws , Ta and OA be the dilation, translation and orthonormal transformations Rd ? Rd defined for s ? R \ {0}, a ? Rd and orthonormal A : Rd ? Rd by Ws x = sx, Ta x = x + a and OA x = Ax respectively. Hence, for an r.k.h.s. which is Ws -scaled for arbitrary s 6= 0, training an s.v.m. and dilating the resultant decision function by some amount is equivalent training the s.v.m. on similarly dilated input patterns but with a regularisation parameter adjusted according to Corollary 2.3. While (Fleuret & Sahbi, 2003) demonstrated this phenomenon for the s.v.m. with a particular kernel, as we have just seen it is easy to demonstrate for the more general Tikhonov regularisation setting with any function norm satisfying our definition of transformation scaledness. 3 Transformation Scaled Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces We now derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for a reproducing kernel (r.k.) to correspond to an r.k.h.s. which is T -scaled. The relationship between T -scaled r.k.h.s.?s and their r.k.?s is easy to derive given the uniqueness of the r.k. (Wendland, 2004). It is given by the following novel Lemma 3.1 (Transformation scaled r.k.h.s.). The r.k.h.s. H with r.k. k : X ? X ? R, i.e. with k satisfying hk(?, x), f (?)iH = f (x), (2) is T -scaled iff k(x, y) = gT (H) k(T x, T y). (3) Which we prove in the accompanying technical report (Walder & Chapelle, 2007) . It is now easy p to see that, for example, the homogeneous polynomial kernel k(x, y) = hx, yi corresponds to a p p Ws -scaled r.k.h.s. H with gWs (H) = hx, yi / hsx, syi = s?2p . Hence when the homogeneous polynomial kernel is used with the hard-margin s.v.m. algorithm, the result is invariant to multiplicative scaling of the training and test data. If the soft-margin s.v.m. is used however, then the invariance 2 holds only under appropriate scaling (as per Corollary 2.3) of the margin softness parameter (i.e. ? of the later equation (14)). We can now show that there exist no non-trivial r.k.h.s.?s with radial kernels that are also Ws -scaled for all s 6= 0. First however we need the following standard result on homogeneous functions: Lemma 3.2. If ? : [0, ?) ? R and g : (0, ?) ? R satisfy ?(r) = g(s)?(rs) for all r ? 0 and s > 0 then ?(r) = a?(r) + brp and g(s) = s?p , where a, b, p ? R, p 6= 0, and ? is Dirac?s function. Which we prove in the accompanying technical report (Walder & Chapelle, 2007). Now, suppose that H is an r.k.h.s. with r.k. k on Rd ? Rd . If H is Ta -invariant for all a ? Rd then k(x, y) = k(T?y x, T?y y) = k(x ? y, 0) , ?T (x ? y). If in addition to this H is OA -invariant for all orthogonal A, then by choosing A such that A(x?y) = kx ? yk e? where e? is an arbitrary unit vector in Rd we have k(x, y) = k(OA x, OA y) = ?T (OA (x ? y)) = ?T (kx ? yk e?) , ?OT (kx ? yk) i.e. k is radial. All of this is straightforward, and a similar analysis can be found in (Wendland, 2004). Indeed the widely used Gaussian kernel satisfies both of the above invariances. But if we now also assume that H is Ws -scaled for all s 6= 0 ? this time with arbitrary gWs (H) ? then k(x, y) = gWs (H)k(Ws x, Ws y) = gW|s| (H)?OT (|s| kx ? yk) so that letting r = kx ? yk we have that ?OT (r) = gW|s| (H)?OT (|s| r) and hence by Lemma 3.2 that ?OT (r) = a?(r) + brp where a, b, p ? R. This is positive semi-definite for the trivial case p = 0, but there are various ways of showing this cannot be non-trivially positive semi-definite for p 6= 0. One simple way is to consider two arbitrary vectors x1 and x2 such that kx1 ? x2 k = d > 0. For the corresponding Gram matrix   a bdp K, , bdp a to be positive semi definite we require 0 ? det(K) = a2 ? b2 d2p , but for arbitrary d > 0 and a < ?, this implies b = 0. This may seem disappointing, but fortunately there do exist c.p.d. kernel functions with the stated properties, such as the thin-plate kernel. We discuss this case in detail in Section 5, after the following particularly elementary and in part novel introduction to c.p.d. kernels. 4 Conditionally Positive Definite Kernels In the last Section we alluded to c.p.d. kernel functions ? these are given by the following Definition 4.1. A continuous function ? : X ? X ? R is conditionally positive definite with respect to (w.r.t.) the linear of functions P if, for all m ? N, all {xi }i=1...m ? X , and all Pspace m ? ? Rm \ {0} satisfying j=1 ?j p(xj ) = 0 for all p ? P, the following holds Pm (4) j,k=1 ?j ?k ?(xj , xk ) > 0. Due to the positivity condition (4) ? as opposed one of non negativity ? we are referring to c.p.d. rather than conditionally positive semi-definite kernels. The c.p.d. case is more technical than the p.d. case. We provide a minimalistic discussion here ? for more details we recommend e.g. (Wendland, 2004). To avoid confusion, let us note in passing that while the above definition is quite standard (see e.g. (Wendland, 2004; Wahba, 1990)), many authors in the machine learning community use a definition of c.p.d. kernels which corresponds to our definition when P = {1} (e.g. (Sch?olkopf & Smola, 2002)) or when P is taken to be the space of polynomials of some fixed maximum degree (e.g. (Smola et al., 1998)). Let us now adopt the notation P ? (x1 , . . . , xm ) for the set Pm {? ? Rm : i=1 ?i p(xi ) = 0 for all p ? P} . The c.p.d. kernels of Definition 4.1 naturally define a Hilbert space of functions as per Definition 4.2. Let ? : X ? X ? R be a c.p.d. kernel w.r.t. P. We define F? (X ) to be the Hilbert space of functions which is the completion of the set nP o m ? ? ?(?, x ) : m ? N, x , .., x ? X , ? ? P (x , .., x ) , j j 1 m 1 m j=1 which due to the D definition of ? we may endow with E the inner product Pm j=1 ?j ?(?, xj ), Pn k=1 ?k ?(?, yk ) = F? (X ) 3 Pm Pn j=1 k=1 ?j ?k ?(xj , yk ). (5) Note that ? is not the r.k. of F? (X ) ? in general ?(x, ?) does not even lie in F? (X ). For the remainder of this Section we develop a c.p.d. analog of the representer theorem. We begin with Lemma 4.3. Let ? : X ? X ? R be a c.p.d. kernel w.r.t. P and p1 , . . . pr a basis for P. For any {(x1 , y1 ), . . . (xm , ym )} ? X ? R, there exists an s = sF? (X ) + sP where sF? (X ) = Pm Pr j=1 ?j ?(?, xj ) ? F? (X ) and sP = k=1 ?k pk ? P, such that s(xi ) = yi , i = 1 . . . m. A simple and elementary proof (which shows (17) is solvable when ? = 0), is given in (Wendland, 2004) and reproduced in the accompanying technical report (Walder & Chapelle, 2007). Note that although such an interpolating function s always exists, it need not be unique. The distinguishing property of the interpolating function is that the norm of the part which lies in F? (X ) is minimum. Definition 4.4. Let ? : X ? X ? R be a c.p.d. kernel w.r.t. P. We use the notation P? (P) to denote the projection F? (X ) ? P ? F? (X ). Pm Note that F? (X ) ? P? (P) is a direct sum since p = j=1 ?i ?(zj , ?) ? P ? F? (X ) implies Pm Pn Pm 2 kpkF? (X ) = hp, piF? (X ) = i=1 j=1 ?i ?j ?(zi , zj ) = j=1 ?j p(zj ) = 0. Hence, returning to the main thread, we have the following lemma ? our proof of which seems to be novel and particularly elementary. Lemma 4.5. Denote by ? : X ? X ? R a c.p.d. kernel w.r.t. P and Pmby p1 , . . . pr a basis for P. Consider an arbitrary function s = sF? (X ) + sP with sF? (X ) = j=1 ?j ?(?, xj ) ? F? (X ) Pr and sP = k=1 ?k pk ? P. kP? (P)skF? (X ) ? kP? (P)f kF? (X ) holds for all f ? F? (X ) ? P satisfying f (xi ) = s(xi ), i = 1 . . . m. (6) Proof. Let f be an arbitrary element of F? (X ) ? P. We can always write f as f= m X (?i + ?i ) ?(?, xj ) + j=1 n X bl ?(?, zl ) + r X ck pk . k=1 l=1 If we define1 [Px ]i,j = pj (xi ), [Pz ]i,j = pj (zi ), [?xx ]i,j = ?(xi , xj ), [?xz ]i,j = ?(xi , zj ), and [?zx ]i,j = ?(zi , xj ), then the condition (6) can hence be written Px ? = ?xx ? + ?xz b + Px c, (7) and the definition of F? (X ) requires that e.g. ? ? P ? (x1 , . . . , xm ), hence implying the constraints Px> ? = 0 and Px> (? + ?) + Pz> b = 0. The inequality to be demonstrated is then  >    ?+? ?xx ?xz ?+? L , ?> ?xx ? ? , R. b ?zx ?zz b | {z } (8) (9) ,? By expanding  >    >   ? ? ? ? R = ? ?xx ? + +2 ? , ? b b 0 b | {z } | {z } | {z } =L > ,?1 ,?2  it follows from (8) that Px> ? + Pz> ? = 0, and since ? is c.p.d. w.r.t. Px> Pz> that ?1 ? 0. But (7) and (8) imply that L ? R, since =0 z }| { > > > ?2 = ? ?xx ? + ? ?xz b = ? Px (? ? c) ? ?> ?xz b + ?> ?xz b = 0. 1 Square brackets w/ subscripts denote matrix elements, and colons denote entire rows or columns. 4 Using these results it is now easy to prove an analog of the representer theorem for the p.d. case. Theorem 4.6 (Representer theorem for the c.p.d. case). Denote by ? : X ? X ? R a c.p.d. kernel w.r.t. P, by ? a strictly monotonic increasing real-valued function on [0, ?), and by c : Rm ? R ? {?} an arbitrary cost function. There exists a minimiser over F? (X ) ? P of   2 (10) W (f ) , c (f (x1 ), . . . , f (xm )) + ? kP? (P)f kF? (X ) Pm which admits the form i=1 ?i ?(?, xi ) + p, where p ? P. Pm Proof. Let f be a minimiser of W. Let s = i=1 ?i ?(?, xi ) + p satisfy s(xi ) = f (xi ), i = 2 1 . . . m. By Lemma 4.3 we know that such an s exists. But by Lemma 4.5 kP? (P)skF? (X ) ? 2 kP? (P)f kF? (X ) . As a result, W (s) ? W (f ) and s is a minimizer of W with the correct form. 5 Thin-Plate Regulariser Definition 5.1. The m-th order thin-plate kernel ?m : Rd ? Rd ? R is given by ( 2m?d (?1)m?(d?2)/2 kx ? yk log(kx ? yk) if d ? 2N, ?m (x, y) = 2m?d m?(d?1)/2 (?1) kx ? yk if d ? (2N ? 1), (11) for x 6= y, and zero otherwise. ?m is c.p.d. with respect to ?m?1 (Rd ), the set of d-variate polyno mials of degree at most m ? 1. The kernel induces the following norm on the space F?m Rd of Definition 4.2 (this is not obvious ? see e.g. (Wendland, 2004; Wahba, 1990)) hf, giF? , h?f, ?giL2 (Rd ) Z d d Z ? X X = ??? ??? m (R d) i1 =1 im =1 where ? : F?m R Clearly gOA (F?m d  x1 =?? ? xd =??  ? ? ??? f ?xi1 ?xim   ? ? ??? g dx1 . . . dxd , ?xi1 ?xim d ? L2 (R ) is a regularisation operator, implicitly defined above.   Rd ) = gTa (F?m Rd ) = 1. Moreover, from the chain rule we have   ? ? ? ? ??? (f ? Ws ) = sm ??? f ? Ws ?xi1 ?xim ?xi1 ?xim (12) and therefore since hf, giL2 (Rd ) = sd hf ? Ws , g ? Ws iL2 (Rd ) ,we can immediately write h? (f ? Ws ) , ? (g ? Ws )iL2 (Rd ) = s2m h(?f ) ? Ws , (?g) ? Ws iL2 (Rd ) = s2m?d h?f, ?giL2 (Rd ) (13)  so that gWs (F?m Rd ) = s?(2m?d) . Note that although it may appear that this can be shown more easily using (11) and an argument similar to Lemma 3.1, the process is actually more involved due to the log factor in the first case of (11), and it is necessary to use the fact that the kernel is c.p.d. w.r.t. ?m?1 (Rd ). Since this is redundant and not central to the paper we omit the details. 6 Conditionally Positive Definite s.v.m. In the Section 3 we showed that non-trivial kernels which are both radial and dilation scaled cannot be p.d. but rather only c.p.d. It is therefore somewhat surprising that the s.v.m. ? one of the most widely used kernel algorithms ? has been applied only with p.d. kernels, or kernels which are c.p.d. respect only to P = {1} (see e.g. (Boughorbel et al., 2005)). After all, it seems interesting to construct a classifier independent not only of the absolute positions of the input data, but also of their absolute multiplicative scale. Hence we propose using the thin-plate kernel with the s.v.m. by minimising the s.v.m. objective over the space F? (X ) ? P (or in some cases just over F? (X ), as we shall see in Section 6.1). For this we require somewhat non-standard s.v.m. optimisation software. The method we propose seems simpler and more robust than previously mentioned solutions. For example, (Smola et al., 1998) mentions the numerical instabilities which may arise with the direct application of standard solvers. 5 Dataset banana breast diabetes flare german heart Gaussian 10.567 (0.547) 26.574 (2.259) 23.578 (0.989) 36.143 (0.969) 24.700 (1.453) 17.407 (2.142) Thin-Plate 10.667 (0.586) 28.026 (2.900) 23.452 (1.215) 38.190 (2.317) 24.800 (1.373) 17.037 (2.290) dim/n 2/3000? 9/263 8/768 9/144 20/1000 13/270 Dataset image ringnm splice thyroid twonm wavefm Gaussian 3.210 (0.504) 1.533 (0.229) 8.931 (0.640) 4.199 (1.087) 1.833 (0.194) 8.333 (0.378) Thin-Plate 1.867 (0.338) 1.833 (0.200) 8.651 (0.433) 3.247 (1.211) 1.867 (0.254) 8.233 (0.484) dim/n 18/2086 20/3000? 60/2844 5/215 20/3000? 21/3000 Table 1: Comparison of Gaussian and thin-plate kernel with the s.v.m. on the UCI data sets. Results are reported as ?mean % classification error (standard error)?. dim is the input dimension and n the total number of data points. A star in the n column means that more examples were available but we kept only a maximum of 2000 per class in order to reduce the computational burden of the extensive number of cross validation and model selection training runs (see Section 7). None of the data sets were linearly separable so we always used used the normal (? unconstrained) version of the optimisation described in Section 6.1. 6.1 Optimising an s.v.m. with c.p.d. Kernel It is simple to implement an s.v.m. with a kernel ? which is c.p.d. w.r.t. an arbitrary finite dimensional space of functions P by extending the primal optimisation approach of (Chapelle, 2007) to the c.p.d. case. The quadratic loss s.v.m. solution can be formulated as arg minf ?F? (X )?P of n X 2 ? kP? (P)f kF? (X ) + max(0, 1 ? yi f (xi ))2 , (14) i=1 Note that for the second order thin-plate case we have X = Rd and P = ?1 (Rd ) (the space of constant and first order polynomials). Hence dim (P) = d + 1 and we can take the basis to be pj (x) = [x]j for j = 1 . . . d along with pd+1 = 1. It follows immediately from Theorem 4.6 that, letting p1 , p2 , . . . pdim(P) span P, the solution to (14) Pn Pdim(P) is given by fsvm (x) = i=1 ?i ?(xi , x) + j=1 ?j pj (x). Now, if we consider only the margin violators ? those vectors which (at a given step of the optimisation process) satisfy yi f (xi ) < 1, we can replace the max (0, ?) in (14) with (?). This is equivalent to making a local second order approximation. Hence by repeatedly solving in this way while updating the set of margin violators, we will have implemented a so-called Newton optimisation. Now, since 2 kP? (P)fsvm kF? (X ) = n X ?i ?j ?(xi , xj ), (15) i,j=1 the local approximation of the problem is, in ? and ? 2 minimise ??> ?? + k?? + P ? ? yk , subject to P > ? = 0, (16) where [?]i,j = ?(xi , xj ), [P ]j,k = pk (xj ), and we assumed for simplicity that all vectors violate the margin. The solution in this case is given by (Wahba, 1990)    ?1   ? y ?I + ? P > = . (17) ? 0 P 0 In practice it is essential that one makes a change of variable for ? in order to avoid the numerical problems which arise when P is rank deficient or numerically close to it. In particular we make the QR factorisation (Golub & Van Loan, 1996) P > = QR, where Q> Q = I and R is square. We then solve for ? and ? = R?. As a final step at the end of the optimisation process, we take the minimum norm solution of the system ? = R?, ? = R# ? where R# is the pseudo inverse of R. Note that although (17) is standard for squared loss regression models with c.p.d. kernels, our use of it in optimising the s.v.m. is new. The precise algorithm is given in (Walder & Chapelle, 2007), where we also detail two efficient factorisation techniques, specific to the new s.v.m. setting. Moreover, the method we present in Section 6.2 deviates considerably further from the existing literature. 6 6.2 Constraining ? = 0 Previously, if the data can be separated with only the P part of the function space ? i.e. with ? = 0 ? then the algorithm will always do so regardless of ?. This is correct in that, since P lies in the null 2 space of the regulariser kP? (P)?kF? (X ) , such solutions minimise (14), but may be undesirable for various reasons. Firstly, the regularisation cannot be controlled via ?. Secondly, for the thin-plate, P = ?1 (Rd ) and the solutions are simple linear separating hyperplanes. Finally, there may exist infinitely many solutions to (14). It is unclear how to deal with this problem ? after all it implies that the regulariser is simply inappropriate for the problem at hand. Nonetheless we still wish to apply a (non-linear) algorithm with the previously discussed invariances of the thin-plate. To achieve this, we minimise (14) as before, but over the space F? (X ) rather than F? (X ) ? P. It is important to note that by doing so we can no longer invoke Theorem 4.6, the representer theorem for the c.p.d. case. This is because the solvability argument of Lemma 4.3 no longer holds. Hence we do not know the optimal basis for the function, which may involve infinitely many ?(?, x) terms. The way we deal with this is simple ? instead of minimising over F? (X ) we consider only the finite dimensional subspace given by nP o n ? , ? ?(?, x ) : ? ? P (x , . . . , x ) j j 1 n j=1 where x1 , . . . xn are those of the original problem (14). The required update equation can be acquired in a similar manner as before. The closed form solution to the constrained quadratic programme is in this case given by (see (Walder & Chapelle, 2007))  ?1 > > ? = ?P? P?> ?? + ?> P? ?sx ys (18) sx ?sx P? where ?sx = [?]s,: , s is the current set of margin violators and P? the null space of P satisfying P P? = 0. The precise algorithm we use to optimise in this manner is given in the accompanying technical report (Walder & Chapelle, 2007), where we also detail efficient factorisation techniques. 7 Experiments and Discussion We now investigate the behaviour of the algorithms which we have just discussed, namely the thinplate based s.v.m. with 1) the optimisation over F? (X ) ? P as per Section 6.1, and 2) the optimisation over a subspace of F? (X ) as per Section 6.2. In particular, we use the second method if the data is linearlyseparable, otherwisewe use the first. For a baseline we take the Gaussian kernel 2 k(x, y) = exp ? kx ? yk /(2? 2 ) , and compare on real world classification problems. Binary classification (UCI data sets). Table 1 provides numerical evidence supporting our claim that the thin-plate method is competitive with the Gaussian, in spite of it?s having one less hyper parameter. The data sets are standard ones from the UCI machine learning repository. The experiments are extensive ? the experiments on binary problems alone includes all of the data sets used in (Mika et al., 2003) plus two additional ones (twonorm and splice). To compute each error measure, we used five splits of the data and tested on each split after training on the remainder. For parameter selection, we performed five fold cross validation on the four-fifths of the data available for training each split, over an exhaustive search of the algorithm parameter(s) (? and ? for the Gaussian and happily just ? for the thin-plate). We then take the parameter(s) with lowest mean error and retrain on the entire four fifths. We ensured that the chosen parameters were well within the searched range by visually inspecting the cross validation error as a function of the parameters. Happily, for the thin-plate we needed to cross validate to choose only the regularisation parameter ?, whereas for the Gaussian we had to choose both ? and the scale parameter ?. The discovery of an equally effective algorithm which has only one parameter is important, since the Gaussian is probably the most popular and effective kernel used with the s.v.m. (Hsu et al., 2003). Multi class classification (USPS data set). We also experimented with the 256 dimensional, ten class USPS digit recognition problem. For each of the ten one vs. the rest models we used five fold cross validation on the 7291 training examples to find the parameters, retrained on the full training set, and labeled the 2007 test examples according to the binary classifier with maximum output. The Gaussian misclassified 88 digits (4.38%), and the thin-plate 85 (4.25%). Hence the Gaussian did not perform significantly better, in spite of the extra parameter. 7 Computational complexity. The normal computational complexity of the c.p.d. s.v.m. algorithm is the usual O(nsv 3 ) ? cubic in the number of margin violators. For the ? = 0 variant (necessary only on linearly separable problems ? presently only the USPS set) however, the cost is O(nb 2 nsv + nb 3 ), where nb is the number of basis functions in the expansion. For our USPS experiments we expanded on all m training points, but if nsv  m this is inefficient and probably unnecessary. For example the final ten models (those with optimal parameters) of the USPS problem had around 5% margin violators, and so training each Gaussian s.v.m. took only ? 40s in comparison to ? 17 minutes (with the use of various efficient factorisation techniques as detailed in the accompanying (Walder & Chapelle, 2007) ) for the thin-plate. By expanding on only 1500 randomly chosen points however, the training time was reduced to ? 4 minutes while incurring only 88 errors ? the same as the Gaussian. Given that for the thin-plate cross validation needs to be performed over one less parameter, even in this most unfavourable scenario of nsv  m, the overall times of the algorithms are comparable. Moreover, during cross validation one typically encounters larger numbers of violators for some suboptimal parameter configurations, in which cases the Gaussian and thin-plate training times are comparable. 8 Conclusion We have proven that there exist no non-trivial radial p.d. kernels which are dilation invariant (or more accurately, dilation scaled), but rather only c.p.d. ones. Such kernels have the advantage that, to take the s.v.m. as an example, varying the absolute multiplicative scale (or length scale) of the data has the same effect as changing the regularisation parameter ? hence one needs model selection to chose only one of these, in contrast to the widely used Gaussian kernel for example. Motivated by this advantage we provide a new, efficient and stable algorithm for the s.v.m. with arbitrary c.p.d. kernels. Importantly, our experiments show that the performance of the algorithm nonetheless matches that of the Gaussian on real world problems. The c.p.d. case has received relatively little attention in machine learning. Our results indicate that it is time to redress the balance. Accordingly we provided a compact introduction to the topic, including some novel analysis which includes an new, elementary and self contained derivation of one particularly important result for the machine learning community, the representer theorem. References Boughorbel, S., Tarel, J.-P., & Boujemaa, N. (2005). Conditionally positive definite kernels for svm based image recognition. Proc. of IEEE ICME?05. Amsterdam. Chapelle, O. (2007). Training a support vector machine in the primal. Neural Computation, 19, 1155?1178. Chapelle, O., & Sch?olkopf, B. (2001). Incorporating invariances in nonlinear support vector machines. In T. Dietterich, S. Becker and Z. Ghahramani (Eds.), Advances in neural information processing systems 14, 609?616. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Fleuret, F., & Sahbi, H. (2003). Scale-invariance of support vector machines based on the triangular kernel. Proc. of ICCV SCTV Workshop. Golub, G. H., & Van Loan, C. F. (1996). Matrix computations. Baltimore MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 2nd edition. Hsu, C.-W., Chang, C.-C., & Lin, C.-J. (2003). A practical guide to support vector classification (Technical Report). National Taiwan University. Mika, S., R?atsch, G., Weston, J., Sch?olkopf, B., Smola, A., & M?uller, K.-R. (2003). Constructing descriptive and discriminative non-linear features: Rayleigh coefficients in feature spaces. IEEE PAMI, 25, 623?628. Sch?olkopf, B., & Smola, A. J. (2002). Learning with kernels: Support vector machines, regularization, optimization, and beyond. Cambridge: MIT Press. Smola, A., Sch?olkopf, B., & M?uller, K.-R. (1998). The connection between regularization operators and support vector kernels. Neural Networks, 11, 637?649. Wahba, G. (1990). Spline models for observational data. Philadelphia: Series in Applied Math., Vol. 59, SIAM. Walder, C., & Chapelle, O. (2007). Learning with transformation invariant kernels (Technical Report 165). Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics, Department of Empirical Inference, T?ubingen, Germany. Wendland, H. (2004). Scattered data approximation. Monographs on Applied and Computational Mathematics. Cambridge University Press. 8
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Bayesian binning beats approximate alternatives: estimating peristimulus time histograms Dominik Endres, Mike Oram, Johannes Schindelin and Peter F?oldi?ak School of Psychology University of St. Andrews KY16 9JP, UK {dme2,mwo,js108,pf2}@st-andrews.ac.uk Abstract The peristimulus time histogram (PSTH) and its more continuous cousin, the spike density function (SDF) are staples in the analytic toolkit of neurophysiologists. The former is usually obtained by binning spike trains, whereas the standard method for the latter is smoothing with a Gaussian kernel. Selection of a bin width or a kernel size is often done in an relatively arbitrary fashion, even though there have been recent attempts to remedy this situation [1, 2]. We develop an exact Bayesian, generative model approach to estimating PSTHs and demonstate its superiority to competing methods. Further advantages of our scheme include automatic complexity control and error bars on its predictions. 1 Introduction Plotting a peristimulus time histogram (PSTH), or a spike density function (SDF), from spiketrains evoked by and aligned to a stimulus onset is often one of the first steps in the analysis of neurophysiological data. It is an easy way of visualizing certain characteristics of the neural response, such as instantaneous firing rates (or firing probabilities), latencies and response offsets. These measures also implicitly represent a model of the neuron?s response as a function of time and are important parts of their functional description. Yet PSTHs are frequently constructed in an unsystematic manner, e.g. the choice of time bin size is driven by result expectations as much as by the data. Recently, there have been more principled approaches to the problem of determining the appropriate temporal resolution [1, 2]. We develop an exact Bayesian solution, apply it to real neural data and demonstrate its superiority to competing methods. Note that we do in no way claim that a PSTH is a complete generative description of spiking neurons. We are merely concerned with inferring that part of the generative process which can be described by a PSTH in a Bayes-optimal way. 2 The model Suppose we wanted to model a PSTH on [tmin , tmax ], which we discretize into T contiguous intervals of duration ?t = (tmax ? tmin )/T (see fig.1, left). We select a discretization fine enough so that we will not observe more than one spike in a ?t interval for any given spike train. This can be achieved easily by choosing a ?t shorter than the absolute refractory period of the neuron under investigation. Spike train i can then be represented by a binary vector ~zi of dimensionality T . We model the PSTH by M + 1 contiguous, non-overlapping bins having inclusive upper boundaries km , within which the firing probability P (spike|t ? (tmin + ?t(km?1 + 1), tmin + ?t(km + 1)]) = fm is constant. M is the number of bin boundaries inside [tmin , tmax ]. The probability of a spike train 1 ??getIEC(m,T?1,m) ??getIEC(T?1,T?1,m) tmin tmax ?t subEm?1[m?1] t subEm?1[m] P(spike|t) f1 subEm?1[m?1] k1 k2 subEm[T?2] subEm?1[m] f2 k0 subEm[T?1] ??getIEC(m+1,T?1,m) ??getIEC(m,T?2,m) i ?z = [ 1 , 0 , 0 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 0 , 1 , 0 , 1 , 0 , 0 , 1 , 0 ] 0 subEm?1[T?2] subEm[T?1] ??getIEC(m+1,T?2,m) k k k3=T?1 m?1 m T?2 T?1 Figure 1: Left: Top: A spike train, recorded between times tmin and tmax is represented by a binary vector ~zi . Bottom: The time span between tmin and tmax is discretized into T intervals of duration ?t = (tmax ? tmin )/T , such that interval k lasts from k ? ?t + tmin to (k + 1) ? ?t + tmin . ?t is chosen such that at most one spike is observed per ?t interval for any given spike train. Then, we model the firing probabilities P (spike|t) by M + 1 = 4 contiguous, non-overlapping bins (M is the number of bin boundaries inside the time span [tmin , tmax ]), having inclusive upper boundaries km and P (spike|t ? (tmin + ?t(km?1 + 1), tmin + ?t(km + 1)]) = fm . Right: The core iteration. To compute the evidence contribution subEm [T ? 1] of a model with a bin boundary at T ? 1 and m bin boundaries prior to T ? 1, we sum over all evidence contributions of models with a bin boundary at k and m ? 1 bin boundaries prior to k, where k ? m ? 1, because m bin boundaries must occupy at least time intervals 0; . . . ; m ? 1. This takes O(T ) operations. Repeat the procedure to obtain subEm [T ?2]; . . . ; subEm [m]. Since we expect T  m, computing all subEm [k] given subEm?1 [k] requires O(T 2 ) operations. For details, see text. ~zi of independent spikes/gaps is then P (~zi |{fm }, {km }, M ) = M Y s(~ z fm i ,m) (1 ? fm )g(~z i ,m) (1) m=0 where s(~zi , m) is the number of spikes and g(~zi , m) is the number of non-spikes, or gaps in spiketrain ~zi in bin m, i.e. between intervals km?1 + 1 and km (both inclusive). In other words, we model the spiketrains by an inhomogeneous Bernoulli process with piecewise constant probabilities. We also define k?1 = ?1 and kM = T ? 1. Note that there is no binomial factor associated with the contribution of each bin, because we do not want to ignore the spike timing information within the bins, but rather, we try to build a simplified generative model of the spike train. Therefore, the probability of a (multi)set of spiketrains {~zi } = {z1 , . . . , zN }, assuming independent generation, is P ({~zi }|{fm }, {km }, M ) = N Y M Y s(~ z fm i ,m) (1 ? fm )g(~z i ,m) i=1 m=0 = M Y s({~ z fm i },m) (1 ? fm )g({~z i },m) (2) m=0 where s({~zi }, m) = 2.1 PN i=1 s(~zi , m) and g({~zi }, m) = PN i=1 g(~zi , m) The priors We will make a non-informative prior assumption for p({fm }, {km }), namely p({fm }, {km }|M ) = p({fm }|M )P ({km }|M ). 2 (3) i.e. we have no a priori preferences for the firing rates based on the bin boundary positions. Note that the prior of the fm , being continuous model parameters, is a density. Given the form of eqn.(1) and the constraint fm ? [0, 1], it is natural to choose a conjugate prior p({fm }|M ) = M Y B(fm ; ?m , ?m ). (4) ?(? + ?) ? p (1 ? p)? . ?(?)?(?) (5) m=0 The Beta density is defined in the usual way [3]: B(p; ?, ?) = There are only finitely many configurations of the km . Assuming we have no preferences for any of them, the prior for the bin boundaries becomes 1 . P ({km }|M ) =  (6) T ?1 M where the denominator is just the number of possibilities in which M ordered bin boundaries can be distributed across T ? 1 places (bin boundary M always occupies position T ? 1, see fig.1,left , hence there are only T ? 1 positions left). 3 Computing the evidence P ({~zi }|M ) To calculate quantities of interest for a given M , e.g. predicted firing probabilities and their variances or expected bin boundary positions, we need to compute averages over the posterior p({fm }, {km }|M, {~zi }) = p({~zi }, {fm }, {km }|M ) P ({~zi }|M ) (7) which requires the evaluation of the evidence, or marginal likelihood of a model with M bins: i P ({~z }|M ) = kM ?1 ?1 T ?2 X X ... kM ?1 =M ?1 kM ?2 =M ?2 kX 1 ?1 P ({~zi }|{km }, M )P ({km }|M ) (8) k0 =0 where the summation boundaries are chosen such that the bins are non-overlapping and contiguous and Z 1 Z 1 Z 1 i P ({~z }|{km }, M ) = df0 df1 . . . dfM P ({~zi }|{fm }, {km }, M )p({fm }|M ). (9) 0 0 0 By virtue of eqn.(2) and eqn.(4), the integrals can be evaluated: P ({~zi }|{km }, M ) = M M Y ?(s({~zi }, m) + ?m )?(g({~zi }, m) + ?m ) Y ?(?m + ?m ) . ?(s({~zi }, m) + ?m + g({~zi }, m) + ?m ) m=0 ?(?m )?(?m ) m=0 (10) Computing the sums in eqn.(8) quickly is a little tricky. A na??ve approach would suggest that a computational effort of O(T M ) is required. However, because eqn.(10) is a product with one factor per bin, and because each factor depends only on spike/gap counts and prior parameters in that bin, the process can be expedited. We will use an approach very similar to that described in [4, 5] in the context of density estimation and in [6, 7] for Bayesian function approximation: define the function getIEC(ks , ke , m) := ?(s({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m )?(g({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m ) ?(s({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m + g({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m ) (11) where s({~zi }, ks , ke ) is the number of spikes and g({~zi }, ks , ke ) is the number of gaps in {~zi } between the start interval ks and the end interval ke (both included). Furthermore, collect all contributions to eqn.(8) that do not depend on the data (i.e. {~zi }) and store them in the array pr[M ]: QM ?(?m +?m ) pr[M ] := m=0 ?(?m )?(?m )  3 T ?1 M  . (12) Substituting eqn.(10) into eqn.(8) and using the definitions (11) and (12), we obtain P ({~zi }|M ) ? T ?2 X ... kM ?1 =M ?1 kX M 1 ?1 Y getIEC(km?1 + 1, km , m)getIEC(0, k0 , 0) (13) k0 =0 m=1 with kM = T ? 1 and the constant of proportionality being pr[M ]. Since the factors on the r.h.s. depend only on two consecutive bin boundaries each, it is possible to apply dynamic programming [8]: rewrite the r.h.s. by ?pushing? the sums as far to the right as possible: P ({~zi }|M ) ? T ?2 X kM ?1 ?1 getIEC(kM ?1 +1, T ?1, M ) kX 1 ?1 getIEC(kM ?2 +1, kM ?1 , M ?1) kM ?2 =M ?2 kM ?1 =M ?1 ?... X getIEC(k0 + 1, k1 , 1)getIEC(0, k0 , 0). (14) k0 =0 Evaluating the sum over k0 requires O(T ) operations (assuming that T  M , which is likely to be the case in real-world applications). As the summands depend also on k1 , we need to repeat this evaluation O(T ) times, i.e. summing out k0 for all possible values of k1 requires O(T 2 ) operations. This procedure is then repeated for the remaining M ? 1 sums, yielding a total computational effort of O(M T 2 ). Thus, initialize the array subE0 [k] := getIEC(0, k, 0), and iterate for all m = 1, . . . , M : k?1 X subEm [k] := getIEC(r + 1, k, m)subEm?1 [r], (15) r=m?1 A close look at eqn.(14) reveals that while we sum over kM ?1 , we need subEM ?1 [k] for k = M ? 1; . . . ; T ? 2 to compute the evidence of a model with its latest boundary at T ? 1. We can, however, compute subEM ?1 [T ? 1] with little extra effort, which is, up to a factor pr[M ? 1], equal to P ({~zi }|M ? 1), i.e. the evidence for a model with M ? 1 bin boundaries. Moreover, having computed subEm [k], we do not need subEm?1 [k ? 1] anymore. Hence, the array subEm?1 [k] can be reused to store subEm [k], if overwritten in reverse order. In pseudo-code (E[m] contains the evidence of a model with m bin boundaries inside [tmin , tmax ] after termination): Table 1: Computing the evidences of models with up to M bin boundaries 1. for k := 0 . . . T ? 1 : subE[k] := getIEC(0, k, 0) 2. E[0] := subE[T ? 1] ? pr[0] 3. for m := 1 . . . M : (a) if m = M then l := T ? 1 else l := m (b) for k := T ? 1 . . . l Pk?1 subE[k] := r:=m?1 subE[r] ? getIEC(r + 1, k, m) (c) E[m] = subE[T ? 1] ? pr[m] 4. return E[] 4 Predictive firing rates and variances ? {~zi }, M ). For a given configuration of We will now calculate the predictive firing rate P (spike|k, {fm } and {km }, we can write ? {fm }, {km }, M ) = P (spike|k, M X fm 1(k? ? {km?1 + 1, km }) (16) m=0 where the indicator function 1(x) = 1 iff x is true and 0 otherwise. Note that the probability of a spike given {km } and {fm } does not depend on any observed data. Since the bins are non? {~zi }, {km }) overlapping, k? ? {km?1 + 1, km } is true for exactly one summand and P (spike|k, evaluates to the corresponding firing rate. 4 To finish we average eqn.(16) over the posterior eqn.(7). The denominator of eqn.(7) is independent of {fm }, {km } and is obtained by integrating/summing the numerator via the algorithm in table 1. Thus, we only need to multiply the integrand of eqn.(9) (i.e. the numerator of the posterior) with ? {fm }, {km }, M ), thereby replacing eqn.(11) with P (spike|k, getIEC(ks , ke , m) := ?(s({~zi }, ks , ke ) + 1(k? ? {ks , ke }) + ?m )?(g({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m ) (17) ?(s({~zi }, ks , ke ) + 1(k? ? {ks , ke }) + ?m + g({~zi }, ks , ke ) + ?m ) ? Call the array returned by this modified i.e. we are adding an additional spike to the data at k. ? {~zi }, M ) = Ek? [M ] . To evaluate the algorithm Ek? []. By virtue of eqn.(7) we then find P (spike|k, E[M ] 2 ? variance, we need the posterior expectation of fm . This can be computed by adding two spikes at k. 5 Model selection vs. model averaging To choose the best M given {~zi }, or better, a probable range of M s, we need to determine the model posterior P ({~zi }|M )P (M ) (18) P (M |{~zi }) = P z i }|m)P (m) m P ({~ where P (M ) is the prior over M , which we assume to be uniform. The sum in the denominator runs over all values of m which we choose to include, at most 0 ? m ? T ? 1. Once P (M |{~zi }) is evaluated, we could use it to select the most probable M 0 . However, making this decision means ?contriving? information, namely that all of the posterior probability is concentrated at M 0 . Thus we should rather average any predictions over all possible M , even if evaluating such an average has a computational cost of O(T 3 ), since M ? T ? 1. If the structure of the data allow, it is possible, and useful given a large enough T , to reduce this cost by finding a range of M , such that the risk of excluding a model even though it provides a good description of the data is low. In analogy to the significance levels of orthodox statistics, we shall call this risk ?. If the posterior of M is unimodal (which it has been in most observed cases, see fig.3, right, for an example), we can then choose the smallest interval of M s around the maximum of P (M |{~zi }) such that P (Mmin ? M ? Mmax |{~zi }) ? 1 ? ? (19) and carry out the averages over this range of M after renormalizing the model posterior. 6 6.1 Examples and comparison to other methods Data acquisition We obtained data through [9], where the experimental protocols have been described. Briefly, extracellular single-unit recordings were made using standard techniques from the upper and lower banks of the anterior part of the superior temporal sulcus (STSa) and the inferior temporal cortex (IT) of two monkeys (Macaca mulatta) performing a visual fixation task. Stimuli were presented for 333 ms followed by an 333 ms inter-stimulus interval in random order. The anterior-posterior extent of the recorded cells was from 7mm to 9mm anterior of the interaural plane consistent with previous studies showing visual responses to static images in this region [10, 11, 12, 13]. The recorded cells were located in the upper bank (TAa, TPO), lower bank (TEa, TEm) and fundus (PGa, IPa) of STS and in the anterior areas of TE (AIT of [14]). These areas are rostral to FST and we collectively call them the anterior STS (STSa), see [15] for further discussion. The recorded firing patters were turned into distinct samples, each of which contained the spikes from ?300 ms before to 600 ms after the stimulus onset with a temporal resolution of 1 ms. 6.2 Inferring PSTHs To see the method in action, we used it to infer a PSTH from 32 spiketrains recorded from one of the available STSa neurons (see fig.2, A). Spikes times are relative to the stimulus onset. We discretized the interval from ?100ms pre-stimulus to 500ms post-stimulus into ?t = 1ms time intervals and 5 spiketrain number A 30 20 10 B P(spike) 0 | || | | || || | | | | | ||| | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | | | || | | | | || | || | | | || | | | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | || | | | || || | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | || | | | || | | | || | | | | | | | | | || | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | || | || | | | | || | | | | || | | | | || ||| | || || | | | | | | | || || | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | || | | | || | |||| || | || | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | || | | | || | | | || | | | | || ||| | | | || | | | | ||| | | | || || | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | | | | | || | | || ||| | | | | | | | || | || | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | || || | || | | | || | | | | | | | || || || | | || | | || | | | | | | | | | | || | | | || | | | | | | | | | | || | | | || | || | || | | | | | | | || | || | | || || | | | || | | | | | || | | | | || | | || | | || | | | || || | | || | | | | | || | | | | | || | | || | | | | | | || | | || | | || || | | | | | | || | | | | || ||| | | | | | || |||| | | || | || | | | | | | || | || | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | || || || | | || || | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | || | || | | || | || | || | | || | | || | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | || || | || | | | || | || | | | | | | | || | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | || | | || || | || | | | || | || | || | ||| | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | || | | | | | | ||| | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | || || | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || || | | | | | | || | | ||| || ||| | | | | | | | || | | | | | || | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | || || || || | | || || | | | | || | || || | || | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | || || | | | 0.1 0.05 C P(spike) 0 0.1 0.05 D P(spike) 0 0.1 0.05 0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 time, ms after stimulus onset Figure 2: Predicting a PSTH/SDF with 3 different methods. A: the dataset used in this comparison consisted of 32 spiketrains recorded from a STSa neuron. Each tick mark represents a spike. B: PSTH inferred with our Bayesian binning method. The thick line represents the predictive firing rate (section 4), the thin lines show the predictive firing rate ?1 standard deviation. Models with 4 ? M ? 13 were included on a risk level of ? = 0.1 (see eqn.(19)). C: bar PSTH (solid lines), optimal binsize ? 26ms, and line PSTH (dashed lines), optimal binsize ? 78ms, computed by the methods described in [1, 2]. D: SDF obtained by smoothing the spike trains with a 10ms Gaussian kernel. computed the model posterior (eqn.(18)) (see fig.3, right). The prior parameters were equal for all bins and set to ?m = 1 and ?m = 32. This choice corresponds to a firing probability of ? 0.03 in each 1 ms time interval (30 spikes/s), which is typical for the neurons in this study1 . Models with 4 ? M ? 13 (expected bin sizes between ? 23ms-148ms) were included on an ? = 0.1 risk level (eqn.(19)) in the subsequent calculation of the predictive firing rate (i.e. the expected firing rate, hence the continuous appearance) and standard deviation (fig.2, B). Fig.2, C, shows a bar PSTH and a line PSTH computed with the recently developed methods described in [1, 2]. Roughly speaking, 1 one could search for the ?m , ?m which maximize of P ({~zi }|?m , ?m ) P Alternatively, i i = P ({~z }|M )P (M |?m , ?m ), where P ({~z }|M ) is given by eqn.(8). Using a uniform P (M |?m , ?m ), we found ?m ? 2.3 and ?m ? 37 for the data in fig.2, A M 6 these methods try to optimize a compromise between minimal within-bin variance and maximal between-bin variance. In this example, the bar PSTH consists of 26 bins. Graph D in fig.2 depicts a SDF obtained by smoothing the spiketrains with a 10ms wide Gaussian kernel, which is a standard way of calculating SDFs in the neurophysiological literature. All tested methods produce results which are, upon cursory visual inspection, largely consistent with the spiketrains. However, Bayesian binning is better suited than Gaussian smoothing to model steep changes, such as the transient response starting at ? 100ms. While the methods from [1, 2] share this advantage, they suffer from two drawbacks: firstly, the bin boundaries are evenly spaced, hence the peak of the transient is later than the scatterplots would suggest. Secondly, because the bin duration is the only parameter of the model, these methods are forced to put many bins even in intervals that are relatively constant, such as the baselines before and after the stimulus-driven response. In contrast, Bayesian binning, being able to put bin boundaries anywhere in the time span of interest, can model the data with less bins ? the model posterior has its maximum at M = 6 (7 bins), whereas the bar PSTH consists of 26 bins. 6.3 Performance comparison 0.4 10 ms Gaussian 0 0.1 i P(M|{z }) relative frequency 0.2 0.4 bar PSTH 0.2 0 0.4 0.05 line PSTH 0.2 0 0 0.005 0.01 0 0 0.015 CV error relative to Bayesian Binning 10 M 20 30 Figure 3: Left: Comparison of Bayesian Binning with competing methods by 5-fold crossvalidation. The CV error is the negative expected log-probability of the test data. The histograms show relative frequencies of CV error differences between 3 competing methods and our Bayesian binning approach. Gaussian: SDFs obtained by Gaussian smoothing of the spiketrains with a 10 ms kernel. Bar PSTH and line PSTH: PSTHs computed by the binning methods described in [1, 2]. Right: Model posterior P (M |{~zi }) (see eqn.(18)) computed from the data shown in fig.2. The shape is fairly typical for model posteriors computed from the neural data used in this paper: a sharp rise at a moderately low M followed by a maximum (here at M = 6) and an approximately exponential decay. Even though a maximum M of 699 would have been possible, P (M > 23|{~zi }) < 0.001. Thus, we can accelerate the averaging process for quantities of interest (e.g. the predictive firing rate, section 4) by choosing a moderately small maximum M . For a more rigorous method comparison, we split the data into distinct sets, each of which contained the responses of a cell to a different stimulus. This procedure yielded 336 sets from 20 cells with at least 20 spiketrains per set. We then performed 5-fold crossvalidation, the crossvalidation error is given by the negative logarithm of the data (spike or gap) in the test sets: CV error = ? hlog(P (spike|t))i . (20) Thus, we measure how well the PSTHs predict the test data. The Gaussian SDFs were discretized into 1 ms time intervals prior to the procedure. We average the CV error over the 5 estimates to obtain a single estimate for each of the 336 neuron/stimulus combinations. On average, the negative log likelihood of our Bayesian approach predicting the test data (0.04556 ? 0.00029, mean ? SEM) was significantly better than any of the other methods (10ms Gaussian kernel: 0.04654 ? 0.00028; Bar PSTH: 0.04739?0.00029; Line PSTH: 0.04658?0.00029). To directly compare the performance of different methods we calculate the difference in the CV error for each neuron/stimulus combination. Here a positive value indicates that Bayesian binning predicts the test data more accurately than the alternative method. Fig.3, left, shows the relative frequencies of CV error differences between the 3 other methods and our approach. Bayesian binning predicted the data better than the three other 7 methods in at least 295/336 cases, with a minimal difference of ? ?0.0008, indicating the general utility of this approach. 7 Summary We have introduced an exact Bayesian binning method for the estimation of PSTHs. Besides treating uncertainty ? a real problem with small neurophysiological datasets ? in a principled fashion, it also outperforms competing methods on real neural data. It offers automatic complexity control because the model posterior can be evaluated. While its computational cost is significantly higher than that of the methods we compared it to, it is still fast enough to be useful: evaluating the predictive probability takes less than 1s on a modern PC2 , with a small memory footprint (<10MB for 512 spiketrains). Moreover, our approach can easily be adapted to extract other characteristics of neural responses in a Bayesian way, e.g. response latencies or expected bin boundary positions. Our method reveals a clear and sharp initial response onset, a distinct transition from the transient to the sustained part of the response and a well-defined offset. An extension towards joint PSTHs from simultaneous multi-cell recordings is currently being implemented. References [1] H. Shimazaki and S. Shinomoto. A recipe for optimizing a time-histogram. In B. Sch?olkopf, J. Platt, and T. Hoffman, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 1289?1296. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [2] H. Shimazaki and S. Shinomoto. A method for selecting the bin size of a time histogram. Neural Computation, 19(6):1503?1527, 2007. [3] J.O. Berger. Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Springer, New York, 1985. [4] D. Endres and P. F?oldi?ak. Bayesian bin distribution inference and mutual information. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 51(11), 2005. [5] D. Endres. Bayesian and Information-Theoretic Tools for Neuroscience. PhD thesis, School of Psychology, University of St. Andrews, U.K., 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/162. [6] M. Hutter. Bayesian regression of piecewise constant functions. Technical Report arXiv:math/0606315v1, IDSIA-14-05, 2006. [7] M. Hutter. Exact bayesian regression of piecewise constant functions. Journal of Bayesian Analysis, 2(4):635?664, 2007. [8] D. P. Bertsekas. Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control. Athena Scientific, 2000. [9] M. W. Oram, D. Xiao, B. Dritschel, and K.R. Payne. The temporal precision of neural signals: A unique role for response latency? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series B, 357:987?1001, 2002. [10] CJ Bruce, R Desimone, and CG Gross. Visual properties of neurons in a polysensory area in superior temporal sulcus of the macaque. Journal of Neurophysiology, 46:369?384, 1981. [11] DI Perrett, ET Rolls, and W Caan. Visual neurons responsive to faces in the monkey temporal cortex. Expl. Brain. Res., 47:329?342, 1982. [12] G.C. Baylis, E.T. Rolls, and C.M. Leonard. Functional subdivisions of the temporal lobe neocortex. 1987. [13] M. W. Oram and D. I. Perrett. Time course of neural responses discriminating different views of the face and head. Journal of Neurophysiology, 68(1):70?84, 1992. [14] K Tanaka, H Saito, Y Fukada, and M Moriya. Coding visual images of objects in the inferotemporal cortex of the macaque monkey. Journal of Neurophysiology, pages 170?189, 1991. [15] N.E. Barraclough, D. Xiao, C.I. Baker, M.W. Oram, and D.I. Perrett. Integration of visual and auditory information by superior temporal sulcus neurons responsive to the sight of actions. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 17, 2005. 2 3.2 GHz Intel XeonTM , SuSE Linux 10.0 8
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Learning Visual Attributes Vittorio Ferrari ? University of Oxford (UK) Andrew Zisserman University of Oxford (UK) Abstract We present a probabilistic generative model of visual attributes, together with an efficient learning algorithm. Attributes are visual qualities of objects, such as ?red?, ?striped?, or ?spotted?. The model sees attributes as patterns of image segments, repeatedly sharing some characteristic properties. These can be any combination of appearance, shape, or the layout of segments within the pattern. Moreover, attributes with general appearance are taken into account, such as the pattern of alternation of any two colors which is characteristic for stripes. To enable learning from unsegmented training images, the model is learnt discriminatively, by optimizing a likelihood ratio. As demonstrated in the experimental evaluation, our model can learn in a weakly supervised setting and encompasses a broad range of attributes. We show that attributes can be learnt starting from a text query to Google image search, and can then be used to recognize the attribute and determine its spatial extent in novel real-world images. 1 Introduction In recent years, the recognition of object categories has become a major focus of computer vision and has shown substantial progress, partly thanks to the adoption of techniques from machine learning and the development of better probabilistic representations [1, 3]. The goal has been to recognize object categories, such as a ?car?, ?cow? or ?shirt?. However, an object also has many other qualities apart from its category. A car can be red, a shirt striped, a ball round, and a building tall. These visual attributes are important for understanding object appearance and for describing objects to other people. Figure 1 shows examples of such attributes. Automatic learning and recognition of attributes can complement category-level recognition and therefore improve the degree to which machines perceive visual objects. Attributes also open the door to appealing applications, such as more specific queries in image search engines (e.g. a spotted skirt, rather than just any skirt). Moreover, as different object categories often have attributes in common, modeling them explicitly allows part of the learning task to be shared amongst categories, or allows previously learnt knowledge about an attribute to be transferred to a novel category. This may reduce the total number of training images needed and improve robustness. For example, learning the variability of zebra stripes under non-rigid deformations tells us a lot about the corresponding variability in striped shirts. In this paper we propose a probabilistic generative model of visual attributes, and a procedure for learning its parameters from real-world images. When presented with a novel image, our method infers whether it contains the learnt attribute and determines the region it covers. The proposed model encompasses a broad range of attributes, from simple colors such as ?red? or ?green? to complex patterns such as ?striped? or ?checked?. Both the appearance and the shape of pattern elements (e.g. a single stripe) are explicitly modeled, along with their layout within the overall pattern (e.g. adjacent stripes are parallel). This enables our model to cover attributes defined by appearance (?red?), by shape (?round?), or by both (the black-and-white stripes of zebras). Furthermore, the model takes into account attributes with general appearance, such as stripes which are characterized by a pattern of alternation ABAB of any two colors A and B, rather than by a specific combination of colors. Since appearance, shape, and layout are modeled explictly, the learning algorithm gains an understanding of the nature of the attribute. As another attractive feature, our method can learn in a weakly supervised setting, given images labeled only by the presence or absence of the attribute, ? This research was supported by the EU project CLASS. The authors thank Dr. Josef Sivic for fruitful discussions and helpful comments on this paper. unary red round binary black/white stripes generic stripes Figure 1: Examples of different kinds of attributes. On the left we show two simple attributes, whose characteristic properties are captured by individual image segments (appearance for red, shape for round). On the right we show more complex attributes, whose basic element is a pair of segments. without indication of the image region it covers. The presence/absence labels can be noisy, as the training method can tolerate a considerable number of mislabeled images. This enables attributes to be learnt directly from a text specification by collecting training images using a web image search engine, such as Google-images, and querying on the name of the attribute. Our approach is inspired by the ideas of Jojic and Caspi [4], where patterns have constant appearance within an image, but are free to change to another appearance in other images. We also follow the generative approach to learning a model from a set of images used by many authors, for example LOCUS [10]. Our parameter learning is discriminative ? the benefits of this have been shown before, for example for training the constellation model of [3]. In term of functionality, the closest works to ours are those on the analysis of regular textures [5, 6]. However, they work with textures covering the entire image and focus on finding distinctive appearance descriptors. In constrast, here textures are attributes of objects, and therefore appear in complex images containing many other elements. Very few previous works appeared in this setting [7, 11]. The approach of [7] focuses on colors only, while in [11] attributes are limited to individual regions. Our method encompasses also patterns defined by pairs of regions, allowing to capture more complex attributes. Moreover, we take up the additional challenge of learning the pattern geometry. Before describing the generative model in section 3, in the next section we briefly introduce image segments, the elementary units of measurements observed in the model. 2 Image segments ? basic visual representation The basic units in our attribute model are image segments extracted using the algorithm of [2]. Each segment has a uniform appearance, which can be either a color or a simple texture (e.g. sand, grain). Figure 2a shows a few segments from a typical image. Inspired by the success of simple patches as a basis for appearance descriptors [8, 9], we randomly sample a large number of 5 ? 5 pixel patches from all training images and cluster them using kmeans [8]. The resulting cluster centers form a codebook of patch types. Every pixel is soft-assigned to the patch types. A segment is then represented as a normalized histogram over the patch types of the pixels it contains. By clustering the segment histograms from the training images we obtain a codebook A of appearances (figure 2b). Each entry in the codebook is a prototype segment descriptor, representing the appearance of a subset of the segments from the training set. Each segment s is then assigned the appearance a ? A with the smallest Bhattacharya distance to the histogram of s. In addition to appearance, various geometric properties of a segment are measured, summarizing its shape. In our current implementation, these are: curvedness, compactness, elongation (figure 2c), fractal dimension and area relative to the image. We also compute two properties of pairs of segments: relative orientation and relative area (figure 2d). A P 1 A C A2 A P2 ln ( AA ) 1 2 M C P m m M ?1 ? ?2 ?1 ?2 a c b d Figure 2: Image segments as visual features. a) An image with a few segments overlaid, including two pairs of adjacent segments on a striped region. b) Each row is an entry from the appearance codebook A (i.e. one appearance; only 4 out of 32 are shown). The three most frequent patch types for each appearance are displayed. Two segments from the stripes are assigned to the white and black appearance respectively (arrows). c) Geometric properties of a segment: curvedness, which is the ratio between the number of contour points C with curvature above a threshold and the total perimeter P ; compactness; and elongation, which is the ratio between the minor and major moments of inertia. d) Relative geometric properties of a pair of segments: relative area and relative orientation. Notice how these measures are not symmetric (e.g. relative area is the area of the first segment wrt to the second). 3 Generative models for visual attributes Figure 1 shows various kinds of attributes. Simple attributes are entirely characterized by properties of a single segment (unary attributes). Some unary attributes are defined by their appearance, such as colors (e.g. red, green) and basic textures (e.g. sand, grainy). Other unary attributes are defined by a segment shape (e.g. round). All red segments have similar appearance, regardless of shape, while all round segments have similar shape, regardless of appearance. More complex attributes have a basic element composed of two segments (binary attributes). One example is the black/white stripes of a zebra, which are composed of pairs of segments sharing similar appearance and shape across all images. Moreover, the layout of the two segments is characteristic as well: they are adjacent, nearly parallel, and have comparable area. Going yet further, a general stripe pattern can have any appearance (e.g. blue/white stripes, red/yellow stripes). However, the pairs of segments forming a stripe pattern in one particular image must have the same appearance. Hence, a characteristic of general stripes is a pattern of alternation ABABAB. In this case, appearance is common within an image, but not across images. The attribute models we present in this section encompass all aspects discussed above. Essentially, attributes are found as patterns of repeated segments, or pairs of segments, sharing some properties (geometric and/or appearance and/or layout). 3.1 Image likelihood. We start by describing how the model M explains a whole image I. An image I is represented by a set of segments {s}. A latent variable f is associated with each segment, taking the value f = 1 for a foreground segment, and f = 0 for a background segment. Foreground segments are those on the image area covered by the attribute. We collect f for all segments of I into the vector F. An image has a foreground appearance a, shared by all the foreground segments it contains. The likelihood of an image is Y p(I|M; F, a) = p(x|M; F, a) (1) x?I where x is a pixel, and M are the model parameters. These include ? ? A, the set of appearances allowed by the model, from which a is taken. The other parameters are used to explain segments and are dicussed below. The probability of pixels is uniform within a segment, and independent across segments: p(x|M; F, a) = p(sx |M; f, a) (2) x with s the segment containing x. Hence, the image likelihood can be expressed as a product over the probability of each segment s, counted by its area Ns (i.e. the number of pixels it contains) Y x Y N p(I|M; F, a) = p(s |M; f, a) = x?I p(s|M; f, a) s?I s (3) ? ? a R (a) (b) ? s ? f 1 ? Si D G ? ? 2 ? ? a s c Ci G f Si D Figure 3: a) Graphical model for unary attributes. D is the number of images in the dataset, Si is the number of segments in image i, and G is the total number of geometric properties considered (both active and inactive). b) Graphical model for binary attributes. c is a pair of segments. ?1,2 are the geometric distributions for each segment a pair. ? are relative geometric distributions (i.e. measure properties between two segments in a pair, such as relative orientation), and there are R of them in total (active and inactive). ? is the adjacency model parameter. It tells whether only adjacent pairs of segments are considered (so p(c|? = 1) is one only iff c is a pair of adjacent segments). Note that F and a are latent variables associated with a particular image, so there is a different F and a for each image. In contrast, a single model M is used to explain all images. 3.2 Unary attributes Segments are the only observed variables in the unary model. A segment s = (sa , {sjg }) is defined by its appearance sa and shape, captured by a set of geometric measurements {sjg }, such as elongation and curvedness. The graphical model in figure 3a illustrates the conditional probability of image segments  Q j p(s|M; f, a) = p(sa |a) ? ? j p(sjg |?j )v if f = 1 if f = 0 (4) The likelihood for a segment depends on the model parameters M = (?, ?, {?j }), which specify a visual attribute. For each geometric property ?j = (?j , v j ), the model defines its distribution ?j over the foreground segments and whether the property is active or not (v j = 1 or 0). Active properties are relevant for the attribute (e.g. elongation is relevant for stripes, while orientation is not) and contribute substantially to its likelihood in (4). Inactive properties instead have no impact on the likelihood (exponentiation by 0). It is the task of the learning stage to determine which properties are active and their foreground distribution. The factor p(sa |a) = [sa = a] is 1 for segments having the foreground appearance a for this image, and 0 otherwise (thus it acts as a selector). The scalar value ? represents a simple background model: all segments assigned to the background have likelihood ?. During inference and learning we want to maximize the likelihood of an image given the model over F, which is achieved by setting f to foreground when the f = 1 case of equation (4) is greater than ?. As an example, we give the ideal model parameters for the attribute ?red?. ? contains the red appearance only. ? is some low value, corresponding to how likely it is for non-red segments to be assigned the red appearance. No geometric property {?j } is active (i.e. all v j = 0). 3.3 Binary attributes The basic element of binary attributes is a pair of segments. In this section we extend the unary model to describe pairs of segments. In addition to duplicating the unary appearance and geometric properties, the extended model includes pairwise properties which do not apply to individual segments. In the graphical model of figure 3b, these are relative geometric properties ? (area, orientation) and adjacency ?, and together specify the layout of the attribute. For example, the orientation of a segment with respect to the other can capture the parallelism of subsequent stripe segments. Adjacency expresses whether the two segments in the pair are adjacent (like in stripes) or not (like the maple leaf and the stripes in the canadian flag). We consider two segments adjacent if they share part of the boundary. A pattern characterized by adjacent segments is more distinctive, as it is less likely to occur accidentally in a negative image. Segment likelihood. An image is represented by a set of segments {s}, and the set of all possible pairs of segments {c}. The image likelihood p(I|M; F, a) remains as defined in equation (3), but now a = (a1 , a2 ) specifies two foreground appearances, one for each segment in the pair. The likelihood of a segment s is now defined as the maximum over all pairs containing it  p(s|M; f, a) = max{c|s?c} p(c|M, t) ? if f = 1 if f = 0 (5) Pair likelihood. The observed variables in our model are segments s and pairs of segments c. A pair c = (s1 , s2 , {ckr }) is defined by two segments s1 , s2 and their relative geometric measurements {ckr } (relative orientation and relative area in our implementation). The likelihood of a pair given the model is  Y  Y j j j k k vk j v j j v p(c|M, a) = p(s1,a , s2,a |a) ? | {z appearance } p(s1,g |?1 ) 1 ? p(s2,g |?2 ) ? 2 j | p(cr |? ) r ? p(c|?) (6) k {z shape }| {z layout } The binary model parameters M = (?, ?, ?, {?j1 }, {?j2 }, {? k }) control the behavior of the pair likelihood. The two sets of ?ji = (?ji , vij ) are analogous to their counterparts in the unary model, and define the geometric distributions and their associated activation states for each segment in the pair respectively. The layout part of the model captures the interaction between the two segments in the pair. For each relative geometric property ? k = (?k , vrk ) the model gives its distribution ?k over pairs of foreground segments and its activation state vrk . The model parameter ? determines whether the pattern is composed of pairs of adjacent segments (? = 1) or just any pair of segments (? = 0). The factor p(c|?) is defined as 0 iff ? = 1 and the segments in c are not adjacent, while it is 1 in all other cases (so, when ? = 1, p(c|?) acts as a pair selector). The appearance factor p(s1,a , s2,a |a) = [s1,a = a1 ? s2,a = a2 ] is 1 when the two segments have the foreground appearances a = (a1 , a2 ) for this image. As an example, the model for a general stripe pattern is as follows. ? = (A, A) contains all pairs of appearances from A. The geometric properties ?elong , ?curv are active (v1j = 1) and their 1 1 j distributions ?1 peaked at high elongation and low curvedness. The corresponding properties {?j2 } have similar values. The layout parameters are ? = 1, and ? rel area , ? rel orient are active and peaked at 0 (expressing that the two segments are parallel and have the same area). Finally, ? is a value very close to 0, as the probability of a random segment under this complex model is very low. 4 Learning the model Image Likelihood. The image likelihood defined in (3) depends on the foreground/background labels F and on the foreground appearance a. Computing the complete likelihood, given only the model M, involves maximizing a over the appearances ? allowed by the model, and over F: p(I|M) = max max p(I|M; F, a) a?? F (7) The maximization over F is easily achieved by setting each f to the greater of the two cases in equation (4) (equation (5) for a binary model). The maximization over a requires trying out all allowed appearances ?. This is computationally inexpensive, as typically there are about 32 entries in the appearance codebook. Training data. We learn the model parameters in a weakly supervised setting. The training data i i consists of positive I+ = {I+ } and negative images I? = {I? }. While many of the positive images contain examples of the attribute to be learnt (figure 4), a considerable proportion don?t. Conversely, some of the negative images do contain the attribute. Hence, we must operate under a weak assumption: the attribute occurs more frequently on positive training images than on negative. Moreover, only the (unreliable) image label is given, not the location of the attribute in the image. As demonstrated in section 5, our approach is able to learn from this noisy training data. Although our attribute models are generative, learning them in a discriminative fashion greatly helps given the challenges posed by the weakly supervised setting. For example, in figure 4 most of the overall surface for images labeled ?red? is actually white. Hence, a maximum likelihood estimator over the positive training set alone would learn white, not red. A discriminative approach instead positive training images negative training images Figure 4: Advantages of discriminative training. The task is to learn the attribute ?red?. Although the most frequent color in the positive training images is white, white is also common across the negative set. notices that white occurs frequently also on the negative set, and hence correctly picks up red, as it is most discriminative for the positive set. Formally, the task of learning is to determine the model parameters M that maximize the likelihood ratio Q i p(I+ |M) I i ?I+ p(I+ |M) = Q+ i p(I? |M) p(I? |M) I i ?I ? (8) ? Learning procedure. The parameters of the binary model are M = (?, ?, ?, {?j1 }, {?j2 }, {? k }), as defined in the previous sections. Since the binary model is a superset of the unary one, we only explain here how to learn the binary case. The procedure for the unary model is derived analogously. In our implementation, ? can contain either a single appearance, or all appearances in the codebook A. The former case covers attributes such as colors, or patterns with specific colors (such as zebra stripes). The latter case covers generic patterns, as it allows each image to pick a different appearance a ? ?, while at the same time it properly constrains all segments/pairs within an image to share the same appearance (e.g. subsequent pairs of stripe segments have the same appearance, forming a pattern of alternation ABABAB). Because of this definition, ? can take on (1 + |A|)2 /2 different values (sets of appearances). As typically a codebook of |A| ? 32 appearances is sufficient to model the data, we can afford exhaustive search over all possible values of ?. The same goes for ?, which can only take on two values. Given a fixed ? and ?, the learning task reduces to estimating the background probability ?, and the geometric properties {?j1 }, {?j2 }, {? k }. To achieve this, we need determine the latent variable F for each training image, as it is necessary for estimating the geometric distributions over the foreground segments. These are in turn necessary for estimating ?. Given ? and the geometric properties we can estimate F (equation (6)). This particular circular dependence in the structure of our model suggests a relatively simple and computationally cheap approximate optimization algorithm: S 1. For each I ? {I+ I? }, estimate an initial F and a via equation (7), using an initial ? = 0.01, and no geometry (i.e. all activation variables set to 0). 2. Estimate all geometric distributions ?j1 , ?j2 , ?k over the foreground segments/pairs from all images, according to the initial estimates {F}. 3. Estimate ? and the geometric activations v iteratively: (a) Update ? as the average probability of segments from I? . This is obtained using the foreground expression of (5) for all segments of I? . (b) Activate the geometric property which most increases the likelihood-ratio (8) (i.e. set the corresponding v to 1). Stop iterating when no property increases (8). 4. The above steps already yield a reasonable estimate of all model parameters. We use it as initialization for the following EM-like iteration, which refines ? and ?j1 , ?j2 , ?k (a) Update {F} given the current ? and geometric properties (set each f to maximize (5)) (b) Update ?j1 , ?j2 , ?k given the current {F}. (c) Update ? over I? using the current ?j1 , ?j2 , ?k . The algorithm is repeated over all possible ? and ?, and the model maximizing (8) is selected. Notice how ? is continuously re-estimated as more geometric properties are added. This implicitly offers to the selector the probability of an average negative segment under the current model as an up-to-date baseline for comparison. It prevents the model from overspecializing as it pushes it to only pick up properties which distinguish positive segments/pairs from negative ones. (a) Layout Segment 2 Segment 1 (b) 0 1 <.33 >.67 0 1 <.33 >.67 <.33 >.67 ??/2 0 ?/2 ?4 0 4 0 4 (c) 1 0 elongation <.33 >.67 curvedness 0 1 area 0 0.4 compactness 0 1 elongation curvedness ?4 relative orientation relative area Figure 5: a) color models learnt for red, green, blue, and yellow. For each, the three most frequent patch types are displayed. Notice how each model covers different shades of a color. b+c) geometric properties of the learned models for stripes (b) and dots (c). Both models are binary, have general appearance, i.e. ? = (A, A), and adjacent segments, i.e. ? = 1. The figure shows the geometric distributions for the activated geometric properties. Lower elongation values indicate more elongated segments. A blank slot means the property is not active for that attribute. See main text for discussion. One last, implicit, parameter is the model complexity: is the attribute unary or binary ? This is tackled through model selection: we learn the best unary and binary models independently, and then select the one with highest likelihood-ratio. The comparison is meaningful because image likelihood is measured in the same way in both unary and binary cases (i.e. as the product over the segment probabilities, equation (3)). 5 Experimental results Learning. We present results on learning four colors (red, green, blue, and yellow) and three patterns (stripes, dots, and checkerboard). The positive training set for a color consists of the 14 images in the first page returned by Google-images when queried by the color name. The proportion of positive images unrelated to the color varies between 21% and 36%, depending on the color (e.g. figure 4). The negative training set for a color contains all positive images for the other colors. Our approach delivers an excellent performance. In all cases, the correct model is returned: unary, no active geometric property, and the correct color as a specific appearance (figure 5a). Stripes are learnt from 74 images collected from Google-images using ?striped?, ?stripe?, ?stripes? as queries. 20% of them don?t contain stripes. The positive training set for dots contains 35 images, 29% of them without dots, collected from textile vendors websites and Google-images (keywords ?dots?, ?dot?, ?polka dots?). For both attributes, the 56 images for colors act as negative training set. As shown in figure 5, the learnt models capture well the nature of these attributes. Both stripes and dots are learnt as binary and with general appearance, while they differ substantially in their geometric properties. Stripes are learnt as elongated, rather straight pairs of segments, with largely the same properties for the two segments in a pair. Their layout is meaningful as well: adjacent, nearly parallel, and with similar area. In contrast, dots are learnt as small, unelongated, rather curved segments, embedded within a much larger segment. This can be seen in the distribution of the area of the first segment, the dot, relative to the area of the second segment, the ?background? on which dots lie. The background segments have a very curved, zigzagging outline, because they circumvent several dots. In contrast to stripes, the two segments that form this dotted pattern are not symmetric in their properties. This characterisic is modeled well by our approach, confirming its flexibility. We also train a model from the first 22 Google-images for the query ?checkerboard?, 68% of which show a black/white checkerboard. The learnt model is binary, with one segment for a black square and the other for an adjacent white square, demonstrating the learning algorithm correctly infers both models with specific and generic appearance, adapting to the training data. Recognition. Once a model is learnt, it can be used to recognize whether a novel image contains the attribute, by computing the likelihood (7). Moreover, the area covered by the attribute is localized by the segments with f = 1 (figure 6). We report results for red, yellow, stripes, and dots. All test images are downloaded from Yahoo-images, Google-images, and Flickr. There are 45 (red), 39 (yellow), 106 (stripes), 50 (dots) positive test images. In general, the object carrying the attribute stands against a background, and often there are other objects in the image, making the localization task non-trivial. Moreover, the images exhibit extreme variability: there are paintings as well as photographs, stripes appear in any orientation, scale, and appearance, and they are often are deformed Figure 6: Recognition results. Top row: red (left) and yellow (right). Middle rows: stripes. Bottom row: dots. We give a few example test images and the corresponding localizations produced by the learned models. Segments are colored according to their foreground likelihood, using matlab?s jet colormap (from dark blue to green to yellow to red to dark red). Segments deemed not to belong to the attribute are not shown (black). In the case of dots, notice how the pattern is formed by the dots themselves and by the uniform area on which they lie. The ROC plots shows the image classification performance for each attribute. The two lower curves in the stripes plot correspond to a model without layout, and without either layout nor any geometry respectively. Both curves are substantially lower, confirming the usefulness of the layout and shape components of the model. (human body poses, animals, etc.). The same goes for dots, which can vary in thickness, spacing, and so on. Each positive set is coupled with a negative one, in which the attribute doesn?t appear, composed of 50 images from the Caltech-101 ?Things? set [12]. Because these negative images are rich in colors, textures and structure, they pose a considerable challenge for the classification task. As can be seen in figure 6, our method achieves accurate localizations of the region covered by the attribute. The behavior on stripe patterns composed of more than two appearances is particularly interesting (the trousers in the rightmost example). The model explains them as disjoint groups of binary stripes, with the two appearances which cover the largest image area. In terms of recognizing whether an image contains the attribute, the method performs very well for red and yellow, with ROC equal-error rates above 90%. Performance is convincing also for stripes and dots, especially since these attributes have generic appearance, and hence must be recognized based only on geometry and layout. In contrast, colors enjoy a very distinctive, specific appearance. References [1] N. Dalal and B. Triggs, Histograms of Oriented Gradients for Human Detection, CVPR, 2005. [2] P. Felzenszwalb and D Huttenlocher, Efficient Graph-Based Image Segmentation, IJCV, (50):2, 2004. [3] R. Fergus, P. Perona, and A. Zisserman, Object Class Recognition by Unsupervised Scale-Invariant Learning, CVPR, 2003. [4] N. Jojic and Y. Caspi, Capturing image structure with probabilistic index maps, CVPR, 2004 [5] S. Lazebnik, C. Schmid, and J. Ponce, A Sparse Texture Representation Using Local Affine Regions, PAMI, (27):8, 2005 [6] Y. Liu, Y. Tsin, and W. Lin, The Promise and Perils of Near-Regular Texture, IJCV, (62):1, 2005 [7] J. Van de Weijer, C. Schmid, and J. Verbeek, Learning Color Names from Real-World Images, CVPR, 2007. [8] M. Varma and A. Zisserman, Texture classification: Are filter banks necessary?, CVPR, 2003. [9] J. Winn, A. Criminisi, and T. Minka, Object Categorization by Learned Universal Visual Dictionary, ICCV, 2005. [10] J. Winn and N. Jojic. LOCUS: Learning Object Classes with Unsupervised Segmentation, ICCV, 2005. [11] K. Yanai and K. Barnard, Image Region Entropy: A Measure of ?Visualness? of Web Images Associated with One Concept, ACM Multimedia, 2005. [12] Caltech 101 dataset: www.vision.caltech.edu/Image Datasets/Caltech101/Caltech101.html
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Convex Learning with Invariances Choon Hui Teo Australian National University [email protected] Amir Globerson CSAIL, MIT [email protected] Sam Roweis Department of Computer Science University of Toronto [email protected] Alexander J. Smola NICTA Canberra, Australia [email protected] Abstract Incorporating invariances into a learning algorithm is a common problem in machine learning. We provide a convex formulation which can deal with arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary losses. In addition, it is a drop-in replacement for most optimization algorithms for kernels, including solvers of the SVMStruct family. The advantage of our setting is that it relies on column generation instead of modifying the underlying optimization problem directly. 1 Introduction Invariances are one of the most powerful forms of prior knowledge in machine learning; they have a long history [9, 1] and their application has been associated with some of the major success stories in pattern recognition. For instance, the insight that in vision tasks, one should be often be designing detectors that are invariant with respect to translation, small degrees of rotation & scaling, and image intensity has led to best-in-class algorithms including tangent-distance [13], virtual support vectors [5] and others [6]. In recent years a number of authors have attempted to put learning with invariances on a solid mathematical footing. For instance, [3] discusses how to extract invariant features for estimation and learning globally invariant estimators for a known class of invariance transforms (preferably arising from Lie groups). Another mathematically appealing formulation of the problem of learning with invariances casts it as a second order cone programming [8]; unfortunately this is neither particularly efficient to implement (having worse than cubic scaling behavior) nor does it cover a wide range of invariances in an automatic fashion. A different approach has been to pursue ?robust? estimation methods which, roughly speaking, aim to find estimators whose performance does not suffer significantly when the observed inputs are degraded in some way. Robust estimation has been applied to learning problems in the context of missing data [2] and to deal with specific type of data corruption at test time [7]. The former approach again leads to a second order cone program, limiting its applicability to very small datasets; the latter is also computationally demanding and is limited to only specific types of data corruption. Our goal in this work is to develop a computationally scalable and broadly applicable approach to supervised learning with invariances which is easily adapted to new types of problems and can take advantage of existing optimization infrastructures. In this paper we propose a method which has what we believe are many appealing properties: 1. It formulates invariant learning as a convex problem and thus can be implemented directly using any existing convex solver, requiring minimal additional memory and inheriting the convergence properties/guarantees of the underlying implementation. 1 2. It can deal with arbitrary invariances, including gradual degradations, provided that the user provides a computational recipe to generate invariant equivalents efficiently from a given data vector. 3. It provides a unifying framework for a number of previous approaches, such as the method of Virtual Support Vectors [5] and is broadly applicable not just to binary classification but in fact to any structured estimation problem in the sense of [16]. 2 Maximum Margin Loss with Invariances We begin by describing a maximum margin formulation of supervised learning which naturally incorporates invariance transformations on the input objects. We assume that we are given input patterns x ? X from from some space X and that we want to estimate outputs y ? Y. For instance Y = {?1} corresponds to binary classification; Y = An corresponds to sequence prediction over the alphabet A.1 We denote our prediction by y?(x), which is obtained by maximizing our learned function f : X ? Y ? R, i.e. y?(x) := argmaxy?Y f (x, y). For instance, if we are training a (generative or discriminative) probabilistic model, f (x, y) = log p(y|x) then our prediction is the maximum a-posteriori estimate of the target y given x. In many interesting cases y?(x) is obtained by solving a nontrivial discrete optimization problem, e.g. by means of dynamic programming. In kernel methods f (x, y) = h?(x, y), wi for a suitable feature map ? and weight vector w. For the purpose of our analysis the precise form of f is immaterial, although our experiments focus on the kernel machines, due to the availability of scalable optimizers for that class of estimators. 2.1 Invariance Transformations and Invariance Sensitive Cost The crucial ingredient to formulating invariant learning is to capture the domain knowledge that there exists some class S of invariance transforms s which can act on the input x while leaving the target y essentially unchanged. We denote by (s(x), y) s ? S the set of valid transformations of the pair (x, y). For instance, we might believe that slight rotation (in pixel coordinates) of an input image in a pattern recognition problem do not change the image label. For text classification problems such as spam filtering, we may believe that certain editing operations (such as changes in capitalization or substitutions like Viagra ? V1agra,V!agra) should not affect our decision function. Of course, most invariances only apply ?locally?, i.e. in the neighborhood of the original input vector. For instance, rotating an image of the digit 6 too far might change its label to 9; applying both a substitution and an insertion can change Viagra ? diagram. Furthermore, certain invariances may only hold for certain pairs of input and target. For example, we might believe that horizontal reflection is a valid invariance for images of digits in classes 0 and 8 but not for digits in class 2. The set s(x) s ? S incorporates both the locality and applicability constraints. (We have introduced a slight abuse of notation since s may depend on y but this should always be clear in context.) To complete the setup, we adopt the standard assumption that the world or task imposes a cost function such that if the true target for an input x is y and our prediction is y?(x) we suffer a cost ?(y, y?(x)).2 For learning with invariances, we extend the definition of ? to include the invariance function s(x), if any, which was applied to the input object: ?(y, y?(s(x)), s). This allows the cost to depend on the transformation, for instance we might suffer less cost for poor predictions when the input has undergone very extreme transformations. In a image labeling problem, for example, we might believe that a lighting/exposure invariance applies but we might want to charge small cost for extremely over-exposed or under-exposed images since they are almost impossible to label. Similarly, we might assert that scale invariance holds but give small cost to severely spatially downsampled images since they contain very little information. 2.2 Max Margin Invariant Loss Our approach to the invariant learning problem is very natural, yet allows us to make a surprising amount of analytical and algorithmic progress. A key quantity is the cost under the worst case transformation for each example, i.e. the transformation under which our predicted target suffers 1 2 For more nontrivial examples see, e.g. [16, 14] and the references therein. Normally ? = 0 if y?(x) = y but this is not strictly necessary. 2 the maximal cost compared with the true target: C(x, y, f ) = sup ?(y, y?(s(x)), s) (1) s?S The objective function (loss) that we advocate minimizing during learning is essentially a convex upper bound on this worst case cost which incorporates a notion of (scaled) margin: l(x, y, f ) := sup ?(y, y 0 )(f (s(x), y 0 ) ? f (s(x), y)) + ?(y, y 0 , s) (2) y 0 ?Y,s?S This loss function finds the combination of invariance transformation and predicted target for which the sum of (scaled) ?margin violation? plus the cost is maximized. The function ?(y, y 0 ) is a nonnegative margin scaling which allows different target/prediction pairs to impose different amounts of loss on the final objective function.3 The numerical scale of ? also sets the regularization tradeoff between margin violations and the prediction cost ?. This loss function has two mathematically important properties which allow us to develop scalable and convergent algorithms as proposed above. Lemma 1 The loss l(x, y, f ) is convex in f for any choice of ?, ? and S. Proof For fixed (y 0 , s) the expression ?(y, y 0 )(f (s(x), y 0 ) ? f (s(x), y)) + ?(y, y 0 , s) is linear in f , hence (weakly) convex. Taking the supremum over a set of convex functions yields a convex function. This means that we can plug l into any convex solver, in particular whenever f belongs to a linear function class, as is the case with kernel methods. The primal (sub)gradient of l is easy to write: ?f l(x, y, f ) = ?(y, y ? )(?(s? (x), y ? ) ? ?(s? (x), y)) ? (3) ? where s , y are values of s, y for which the supremum in Eq. (2) is attained and ? is the evaluation functional of f , that is hf, ?(x, y)i = f (x, y). In kernel methods ? is commonly referred to as the feature map with associated kernel k((x, y), (x0 , y 0 )) = h?(x, y), ?(x0 , y 0 )i . (4) Note that there is no need to define S formally. All we need is a computational recipe to obtain the worst case s ? S in terms of the scaled margin in Eq. 2. Nor is there any requirement for ?(y, y 0 , s) or (s(x), y) to have any particularly appealing mathematical form, such as the polynomial trajectory required by [8], or the ellipsoidal shape described by [2]. Lemma 2 The loss l(x, y, f ) provides an upper bound on C(x, y, f ) = sups?S ?(y, y?(s(x)), s). Proof Denote by (s? , y ? ) the values for which the supremum of C(x, y, f ) is attained. By construction f (s? (x), y ? ) ? f (s? (x), y). Plugging this inequality into Eq. (2) yields l(x, y, f ) ? ?(y, y ? )(f (s? (x), y ? ) ? f (s? (x), y)) + ?(y, y ? , s? ) ? ?(y, y ? , s? ). Here the first inequality follows by substituting (s? , y ? ) into the supremum. The second inequality follows from the fact that ? ? 0 and that (s? , y ? ) are the maximizers of the empirical loss. This is essentially a direct extension of [16]. The main modifications are the inclusion of a margin scale ? and the use of an invariance transform s(x). In section 4 we clarify how a number of existing methods for dealing with invariances can be viewed as special cases of Eq. (2). In summary, Eq. (2) penalizes estimation errors not only for the observed pair (x, y) but also for patterns s(x) which are ?near? x in terms of the invariance transform s. Recall, however, that the cost function ? may assign quite a small cost to a transformation s which takes x very far away from the original. Furthermore, the transformation class is restricted only by the computational consideration that we can efficiently find the ?worst case? transformation; S does not have to have a specific analytic form. Finally, there is no specific restriction on y, thus making the formalism applicable to any type of structured estimation. 3 Such scaling has been shown to be extremely important and effective in many practical problems especially in structured prediction tasks. For example, the key difference between the large margin settings of [14] and [16] is the incorporation of a sequence-length dependent margin scaling. 3 3 Learning Algorithms for Minimizing Invariant Loss We now turn to the question of learning algorithms for our invariant loss function. We assume that we are given a training set of input patterns X = {x1 , . . . , xm } and associated labels Y = {y1 , . . . , ym }. We follow the common approach of minimizing, at training time, our average training loss plus a penalty for model complexity. In the context of kernel methods this can be viewed as a regularized empirical risk functional of the form m R[f ] = 1 X ? 2 l(xi , yi , f ) + kf kH where f (x, y) = h?(x, y), wi . m i=1 2 (5) A direct extension of the derivation of [16] yields that the dual of (5) is given by minimize ? m X X X ?iys ?jy0 s0 Kiys,jy0 s0 + i,j=1 y,y 0 ?Y s,s0 ?S subject to ?m XX m XX X ?(yi , y, s)?iys (6a) i=1 y?Y s?S ?iys = 1 for all i and ?iys ? 0. (6b) y?Y s?S Here the entries of the kernel matrix K are given by Kiys,jy0 s0 = ?(yi , y)?(yj , y 0 ) h?(s(xi ), y) ? ?(s(xi ), yi ), ?(s0 (xj ), y 0 ) ? ?(s0 (xj ), yj )i (7) This can be expanded into four kernel functions by using Eq. (4). Moreover, the connection between the dual coefficients ?iys and f is given by f (x0 , y 0 ) = m XX X ?iys [k((s(xi ), y), (x0 , y 0 )) ? k((s(xi ), yi ), (x0 , y 0 ))] . (8) i=1 y?Y s?S There are many strategies for attempting to minimize this regularized loss, either in the primal formulation or the dual, using either batch or online algorithms. In fact, a number of previous heuristics for dealing with invariances can be viewed as heuristics for approximately minimizing an approximation to an invariant loss similar to l. For this reason we believe a discussion of optimization is valuable before introducing specific applications of the invariance loss. Whenever the are an unlimited combination of valid transformations and targets (i.e. the domain S ? Y is infinite), the optimization above is a semi-infinite program, hence exact minimization of R[f ] or of its dual are essentially impossible. However, even is such cases it is possible to find approximate solutions efficiently by means of column generation. In the following we describe two algorithms exploiting this technique, which are valid for both infinite and finite programs. One based on a batch scenario, inspired by SVMStruct [16], and one based on an online setting, inspired by BMRM/Pegasos [15, 12]. 3.1 A Variant of SVMStruct The work of [16, 10] on SVMStruct-like optimization methods can be used directly to solve regularized risk minimization problems. The basic idea is to compute gradients of l(xi , yi , f ), either one observation at a time, or for the entire set of observations simultaneously and to perform updates in the dual space. While bundle methods work directly with gradients, solvers of the SVMStruct type are commonly formulated in terms of column generation on individual observations. We give an instance of SVMStruct for invariances in Algorithm 1. The basic idea is that instead of checking the constraints arising from the loss functions only for y we check them for (y, s), that is, an invariance in combination with a corresponding label which violates the margin most. If we view the tuple (s, y) as a ?label? it is straightforward to see that the convergence results of [16] apply. That is, this algorithm converges to  precision in O(?2 ) time. In fact, one may show, by solving the difference equation in the convergence proof of [16] that the rate can be improved to O(?1 ). We omit technical details here. 4 Algorithm 1 SVMStruct for Invariances 1: Input: data X, labels Y , sample size m, tolerance  2: Initialize Si = ? for all i, and w = 0. 3: repeat 4: for i = 1 to mP do P 5: f (x0 , y 0 ) = i (s,y)?Si ?iz [k((s(xi ), y), (x0 , y 0 )) ? k((s(xi ), yi ), (x0 , y 0 ))] 6: (s? , y ? ) = argmaxs?S,y?Y ?(yi , y)[f (s(xi ), y) ? f (s(xi ), yi )] + ?(yi , y, s) 7: ?i = max(0, max(s,y)?Si ?(yi , y)[f (s(xi ), y) ? f (s(xi ), yi )] + ?(yi , y, s)) 8: if ?(yi , y ? )[f (s? (xi ), y ? ) ? f (s? (xi ), yi )] + ?(yi , y ? , s? ) > ?i +  then 9: Increase constraint set Si ? Si ? {(s? , y ? )} 10: Optimize (6) using only ?iz where z ? Si . 11: end if 12: end for 13: until S has not changed in this iteration 3.2 An Application of Pegasos Recently, Shalev-Shwartz et al. [12] proposed an online algorithm for learning optimization problems of type Eq. (5). Algorithm 2 is an adaptation of their method to learning with our convex invariance loss. In a nutshell, the algorithm performs stochastic gradient descent on the regularized 1 version of the instantaneous loss while using a learning rate of ?t and while projecting the current q 2R[0] weight vector back to a feasible region kf k ? ? , should it exceed it. Algorithm 2 Pegasos for Invariances 1: Input: data X, labels Y , sample size m, iterations T , 2: Initialize f1 = 0 3: for t = 1 to T do 4: Pick (x, y) := (xt mod m , yt mod m ) 5: Compute constraint violator (s? , y ? ) := argmax ?(y, y?) [f (? s(x), y?) ? f (? s(x), y)] + ?(y, y?, s?) s??S,? y ?Y 6: 7: 8: 9: 10:   ? ) Update ft+1 = 1 ? 1t ft + ?(y,y [k((s? (x), y), (?, ?)) ? k((s? (x), y ? ), (?, ?))] ?t q if kft+1 k > 2R[0] then ? q Update ft+t ? 2R[0] ? ft+1 / kft+1 k end if end for We can apply the convergence result from [12] directly to Algorithm 2. In this context note that the gradient with respect to l is bounded by twice the norm of ?(y, y ? ) [?(s(x), y ? ) ? ?(s(x), y)], due to Eq. (3). We assume that the latter is given by R. We can apply [12, Lemma 1] immediately: Theorem 3 Denote by Rt [f ] := l(xt mod m , yt mod m , f ) + t. In this case Algorithm 2 satisfies the following bound: ? 2 2 kf k the instantaneous risk at step T T T T 1X 1X 1X 1X R2 (1 + log T ) Rt [ ft?] ? Rt [ft ] ? min Rt [f ] + . q T t=1 T ? T t=1 2?T 2R[0] T kf k? t=1 t (9) ? In particular, if T is a multiple of m we obtain bounds for the regularized risk R[f ]. 4 Related work and specific invariances While the previous sections gave a theoretical description of the loss, we now discuss a number of special cases which can be viewed as instances of a convex invariance loss function presented here. 5 Virtual Support Vectors (VSVs): The most straightforward approach to incorporate prior knowledge is by adding ?virtual? (data) points generated from existing dataset. An extension of this approach is to generate virtual points only from the support vectors (SVs) obtained from training on the original dataset [5]. The advantage of this approach is that it results in far fewer SV than training on all virtual points. However, it is not clear which objective it optimizes. Our current loss based approach does optimize an objective, and generates the required support vectors in the process of the optimization. Second Order Cone Programming for Missing and Uncertain Data: In [2], the authors consider the case where the invariance is in the form of ellipsoids around the original point. This is shown to correspond to a second order cone program (SOCP). Instead of solving SOCP, we can solve an equivalent but unconstrained convex problem. Semidefinite Programming for Invariances: Graepel and Herbrich [8] introduce a method for learning when the invariances are polynomial trajectories. They show that the problem is equivalent to an semidefinite program (SDP). Their formulation is again an instance of our general loss based approach. Since SDPs are typically hard to solve for large problems, it it is likely that the optimization scheme we suggest will perform considerably faster than standard SDP solvers. Robust Estimation: Globerson and Roweis [7] address the case where invariances correspond to deletion of a subset of the features (i.e., setting their values to zero). This results in a quadratic program (QP) with a variables for each data point and feature in the training set. Solving such a large QP (e.g., 107 variables for the MNIST dataset) is not practical, and again the algorithm presented here can be much more efficient. In fact, in the next section we introduce a generalization of the invariance in [7] and show how it can be optimized efficiently. 5 Experiments Knowledge about invariances can be useful in a wide array of applications such as image recognition and document processing. Here we study two specific cases: handwritten digit recognition on the MNIST data, and spam filtering on the ECML06 dataset. Both examples are standard multiclass classification tasks, where ?(y, y 0 , s) is taken to be the 0/1 loss. Also, we take the margin scale ?(y, y 0 ) to be identically one. We used SVMStruct and BMRM as the solvers for the experiments. 5.1 Handwritten Digits Recognition Humans can recognize handwritten digits even when they are altered in various ways. To test our invariant SVM (Invar-SVM) in this context, we used handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset [11] and modeled 20 invariance transformations: 1-pixel and 2-pixel shifts in 4 and 8 directions, rotations by ?10 degrees, scaling by ?0.15 unit, and shearing in vertical or horizontal axis by ?0.15 unit. To test the effect of learning with these invariances we used small training samples of 10, 20, . . . , 50 samples per digit. In this setting invariances are particularly important since they can compensate for the insufficient training data. We compared Invar-SVM to a related method where all possible transformations were applied in advance to each data point to create virtual samples. The virtual and original samples were used to train a multiclass SVM (VIR-SVM). Finally, we also trained a multiclass SVM that did not use any invariance information (STD-SVM). All of the aforementioned SVMs were trained using RBF kernel with well-chosen hyperparameters. For evaluation we used the standard MNIST test set. Results for the three methods are shown in Figure 1. It can be seen that Invar-SVM and VIR-SVM, which use invariances, significantly improve the recognition accuracy compared to STD-SVM. This comes at a certain cost of using more support vectors, but for Invar-SVM the number of support vectors is roughly half of that in the VIR-SVM. 5.2 SPAM Filtering The task of detecting spam emails is a challenging machine learning problem. One of the key difficulties with such data is that it can change over time as a result of attempts of spam authors to outwit spam filters [4]. In this context, the spam filter should be invariant to the ways in which a spam authors will change their style. One common mechanism of style alteration is the insertion of common words, and avoiding using specific keywords consistently over time. If documents are 6 Figure 1: Results for the MNIST handwritten digits recognition task, comparing SVM trained on original samples (STD-SVM), SVM trained on original and virtual samples (VIR-SVM), and our convex invariance-loss method (Invar-SVM). Left figure shows the classification error as a function of the number of original samples per digit used in training. Right figure shows the number of support vectors corresponding to the optimum of each method. represented using a bag-of-words, these two strategies correspond to incrementing the counts for some words, or setting it to zero [7]. Here we consider a somewhat more general invariance class (FSCALE) where word counts may be scaled by a maximum factor of u (e.g., 1.5) and a minimum factor of l (e.g., 0.5), and the maximum number of words subject to such perturbation is limited at K. Note that by setting l = 0 and u = 1 we specialize it to the feature deletion case (FDROP) in [7]. The invariances we consider are thus defined by s(x) = {x ? ? : ? ? [l, u]d , l ? 1 ? u, #{i : ?i 6= 1} ? K}, (10) where ? denotes element-wise product, d is the number of features, and #{?} denotes the cardinality of the set. The set S is large so exhaustive enumeration is intractable. However, the search for optimal perturbation s? is a linear program and can be computed efficiently by Algorithm 3 in O(d log d) time. We evaluated the performance of our invariance loss FSCALE and its special case FDROP as well as the standard hinge loss on ECML?06 Discovery Challenge Task A dataset.4 This dataset consists of two subsets, namely evaluation set (ecml06a-eval) and tuning set (ecml06a-tune). ecml06a-eval has 4000/7500 training/testing emails with dimensionality 206908, and ecml06a-tune has 4000/2500 training/testing emails with dimensionality 169620. We selected the best parameters for each methods on ecml06a-tune and used them for the training on ecml06a-eval. Results and parameter sets are shown in Table 1. We also performed McNemar?s Tests and rejected the null hypothesis that there is no difference between hinge and FSCALE/FDROP with p-value < 10?32 . Algorithm 3 FSCALE loss 1: Input: datum x, label y, weight vector w ? Rd , invariance-loss parameters (K, l, u) 2: Initialize i := 1, j := d 3: B := y ? w ? x 4: I := IndexSort(B), such that B(I) is in ascending order 5: for k = 1 to K do 6: if B[I[i]] ? (1 ? u) > B[I[j]] ? (1 ? l) then 7: x[I[i]] := x[I[i]] ? u and i := i + 1 8: else 9: x[I[j]] := x[I[j]] ? l and j := j ? 1 10: end if 11: end for 4 http://www.ecmlpkdd2006.org/challenge.html 7 Loss Hinge FDROP FSCALE Average Accuracy % 74.75 81.73 83.71 Average AUC % 83.63 87.79 89.14 Parameters (?, K, l, u) (0.005,-,-,-) (0.1,14,0,1) (0.01,10,0.5,8) Table 1: SPAM filtering results on ecml06a-eval averaged over 3 testing subsets. ? is regularization constant, (K, l, u) are parameters for invariance-loss methods. The loss FSCALE and its special case FDROP statistically significantly outperform the standard hinge loss (Hinge). 6 Summary We have presented a general approach for learning using knowledge about invariances. Our cost function is essentially a worst case margin loss, and thus its optimization only relies on finding the worst case invariance for a given data point and model. This approach can allow us to solve invariance problems which previously required solving very large optimization problems (e.g. a QP in [7]). We thus expect it to extend the scope of learning with invariances both in terms of the invariances used and efficiency of optimization. Acknowledgements: We thank Carlos Guestin and Bob Williamson for fruitful discussions. Part of the work was done when CHT was visiting NEC Labs America. NICTA is funded through the Australian Government?s Backing Australia?s Ability initiative, in part through the ARC. This work was supported in part by the IST Programme of the European Community, under the PASCAL Network of Excellence, IST-2002-506778. References [1] Y. Abu-Mostafa. A method for learning from hints. In S. J. Hanson, J. D. Cowan, and C. L. Giles, editors, NIPS 5, 1992. [2] C. Bhattacharyya, K. S. Pannagadatta, and A. J. Smola. A second order cone programming formulation for classifying missing data. In L. K. Saul, Y. Weiss, and L. Bottou, editors, NIPS 17, 2005. [3] C. J. C. Burges. Geometry and invariance in kernel based methods. In B. Sch?olkopf, C. J. C. Burges, and A. J. Smola, editors, Advances in Kernel Methods ? Support Vector Learning, pages 89?116, Cambridge, MA, 1999. MIT Press. [4] N. Dalvi, P. Domingos, Mausam, S. Sanghai, and D. Verma. Adversarial classification. In KDD, 2004. [5] D. DeCoste and B. Sch?olkopf. Training invariant support vector machines. Machine Learning, 46:161? 190, 2002. [6] M. Ferraro and T. M. Caelli. Lie transformation groups, integral transforms, and invariant pattern recognition. Spatial Vision, 8:33?44, 1994. [7] A. Globerson and S. Roweis. Nightmare at test time: Robust learning by feature deletion. In ICML, 2006. [8] T. Graepel and R. Herbrich. Invariant pattern recognition by semidefinite programming machines. In S. Thrun, L. Saul, and B. Sch?olkopf, editors, NIPS 16, 2004. [9] G. E. Hinton. Learning translation invariant recognition in massively parallel networks. In Proceedings Conference on Parallel Architectures and Laguages Europe, pages 1?13. Springer, 1987. [10] T. Joachims. Training linear SVMs in linear time. In KDD, 2006. [11] Y. LeCun, L. D. Jackel, L. Bottou, A. Brunot, C. Cortes, J. S. Denker, H. Drucker, I. Guyon, U. A. M?uller, E. S?ackinger, P. Simard, and V. Vapnik. Comparison of learning algorithms for handwritten digit recognition. In F. Fogelman-Souli?e and P. Gallinari, editors, ICANN, 1995. [12] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM. In ICML, 2007. [13] P. Simard, Y. LeCun, and J. Denker. Efficient pattern recognition using a new transformation distance. In S. J. Hanson, J. D. Cowan, and C. L. Giles, editors, NIPS 5, 1993. [14] B. Taskar, C. Guestrin, and D. Koller. Max-margin Markov networks. In S. Thrun, L. Saul, and B. Sch?olkopf, editors, NIPS 16, 2004. [15] C.H. Teo, Q. Le, A.J. Smola, and S.V.N. Vishwanathan. A scalable modular convex solver for regularized risk minimization. In KDD, 2007. [16] I. Tsochantaridis, T. Joachims, T. Hofmann, and Y. Altun. Large margin methods for structured and interdependent output variables. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 6:1453?1484, 2005. 8
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Active Preference Learning with Discrete Choice Data Eric Brochu, Nando de Freitas and Abhijeet Ghosh Department of Computer Science University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada {ebrochu, nando, ghosh}@cs.ubc.ca Abstract We propose an active learning algorithm that learns a continuous valuation model from discrete preferences. The algorithm automatically decides what items are best presented to an individual in order to find the item that they value highly in as few trials as possible, and exploits quirks of human psychology to minimize time and cognitive burden. To do this, our algorithm maximizes the expected improvement at each query without accurately modelling the entire valuation surface, which would be needlessly expensive. The problem is particularly difficult because the space of choices is infinite. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the new algorithm compared to related active learning methods. We also embed the algorithm within a decision making tool for assisting digital artists in rendering materials. The tool finds the best parameters while minimizing the number of queries. 1 Introduction A computer graphics artist sits down to use a simple renderer to find appropriate surfaces for a typical reflectance model. It has a series of parameters that must be set to control the simulation: ?specularity?, ?Fresnel reflectance coefficient?, and other, less-comprehensible ones. The parameters interact in ways difficult to discern. The artist knows in his mind?s eye what he wants, but he?s not a mathematician or a physicist ? no course he took during his MFA covered Fresnel reflectance models. Even if it had, would it help? He moves the specularity slider and waits for the image to be generated. The surface is too shiny. He moves the slider back a bit and runs the simulation again. Better. The surface is now appropriately dull, but too dark. He moves a slider down. Now it?s the right colour, but the specularity doesn?t look quite right any more. He repeatedly bumps the specularity back up, rerunning the renderer at each attempt until it looks right. Good. Now, how to make it look metallic...? Problems in simulation, animation, rendering and other areas often take such a form, where the desired end result is identifiable by the user, but parameters must be tuned in a tedious trial-anderror process. This is particularly apparent in psychoperceptual models, where continual tuning is required to make something ?look right?. Using the animation of character walking motion as an example, for decades, animators and scientists have tried to develop objective functions based on kinematics, dynamics and motion capture data [Cooper et al., 2007]. However, even when expensive mocap is available, we simply have to watch an animated film to be convinced of how far we still are from solving the gait animation problem. Unfortunately, it is not at all easy to find a mapping from parameterized animation to psychoperceptual plausibility. The perceptual objective function is simply unknown. Fortunately, however, it is fairly easy to judge the quality of a walk ? in fact, it is trivial and almost instantaneous. The application of this principle to animation and other psychoperceptual tools is motivated by the observation that humans often seem to be forming a mental model of the objective function. This model enables them to exploit feasible regions of the parameter space where the valuation is predicted to be high and to explore regions of high uncertainty. It is our the1 optimization model regression model model true function Figure 1: An illustrative example of the difference between models learned for regression vesus optimization. The regression model fits the true function better overall, but doesn?t fit at the maximum better than anywhere else in the function. The optimization model is less accurate overall, but fits the area of the maximum very well. When resources are limited, such as an active learning environment, it is far more useful to fit the area of interest well, even at the cost of overall predictive performance. Getting a good fit for the maximum will require many more samples using conventional regression. sis that the process of tweaking parameters to find a result that looks ?right? is akin to sampling a perceptual objective function, and that twiddling the parameters to find the best result is, in essence, optimization. Our objective function is the psycho-perceptual process underlying judgement ? how well a realization fits what the user has in mind. Following the econometrics terminology, we refer to the objective as the valuation. In the case of a human being rating the suitability of a simulation, however, it is not possible to evaluate this function over the entire domain. In fact, it is in general impossible to even sample the function directly and get a consistent response! While it would theoretically be possible to ask the user to rate realizations with some numerical scale, such methods often have problems with validity and reliability. Patterns of use and other factors can result in a drift effect, where the scale varies over time [Siegel and Castellan, 1988]. However, human beings do excel at comparing options and expressing a preference for one over others [Kingsley, 2006]. This insight allows us to approach the optimization function in another way. By presenting two or more realizations to a user and requiring only that they indicate preference, we can get far more robust results with much less cognitive burden on the user [Kendall, 1975]. While this means we can?t get responses for a valuation function directly, we model the valuation as a latent function, inferred from the preferences, which permits an active learning approach [Cohn et al., 1996; Tong and Koller, 2000]. This motivates our second major insight ? it is not necessary to accurately model the entire objective function. The problem is actually one of optimization, not regression (Figure 1). We can?t directly maximize the valuation function, so we propose to use an expected improvement function (EIF) [Jones et al., 1998; Sasena, 2002]. The EIF produces an estimate of the utility of knowing the valuation at any point in the space. The result is a principled way of trading off exploration (showing the user examples unlike any they have seen) and exploitation (trying to show the user improvements on examples they have indicated preference for). Of course, regression-based learning can produce an accurate model of the entire valuation function, which would also allow us to find the best valuation. However, this comes at the cost of asking the user to compare many, many examples that have no practical relation what she is looking for, as we demonstrate experimentally in Sections 3 and 4. Our method tries instead to make the most efficient possible use of the user?s time and cognitive effort. Our goal is to exploit the strengths of human psychology and perception to develop a novel framework of valuation optimization that uses active preference learning to find the point in a parameter space that approximately maximizes valuation with the least effort to the human user. Our goal is to offload the cognitive burden of estimating and exploring different sets of parameters, though we can incorporate ?slider twiddling? into the framework easily. In Section 4, we present a simple, but practical application of our model in a material design gallery that allows artists to find particular appearance rendering effects. Furthermore, the valuation function can be any psychoperceptual process that lends itself to sliders and preferences: the model can support an animator looking for a particular ?cartoon physics? effect, an artist trying to capture a particular mood in the lighting of a scene, or an electronic musician looking for a specific sound or rhythm. Though we use animation and rendering as motivating domains, our work has a broad scope of application in music and other arts, as well as psychology, marketing and econometrics, and human-computer interfaces. 2 1.1 Previous Work Probability models for learning from discrete choices have a long history in psychology and econometrics [Thurstone, 1927; Mosteller, 1951; Stern, 1990; McFadden, 2001]. They have been studied ? o, 1978] was adopted by the extensively for use in rating chess players, and the Elo system [El? World Chess Federation FIDE to model the probability of one player defeating another. Glickman and Jensen [2005] use Bayesian optimal design for adaptively finding pairs for tournaments. These methods all differ from our work in that they are intended to predict the probability of a preference outcome over a finite set of possible pairs, whereas we work with infinite sets and are only incidentally interested in modelling outcomes. In Section 4, we introduce a novel ?preference gallery? application for designing simulated materials in graphics and animation to demonstrate the practical utility of our model. In the computer graphics field, the Design Gallery [Marks et al., 1997] for animation and the gallery navigation interface for Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions (BRDFs) [Ngan et al., 2006] are artist-assistance tools most like ours. They both uses non-adaptive heuristics to find the set of input parameters to be used in the generation of the display. We depart from this heuristic treatment and instead present a principled probabilistic decision making approach to model the design process. Parts of our method are based on [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005b], which presents a preference learning method using probit models and Gaussian processes. They use a ThurstoneMosteller model, but with an innovative nonparametric model of the valuation function. [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005a] adds active learning to the model, though the method presented there differs from ours in that realizations are selected from a finite pool to maximize informativeness. More importantly, though, this work, like much other work in the field [Seo et al., 2000; Guestrin et al., 2005], is concerned with learning the entire latent function. As our experiments show in Section 3, this is too expensive an approach for our setting, leading us to develop the new active learning criteria presented here. 2 Active Preference Learning By querying the user with a paired comparison, one can estimate statistics of the valuation function at the query point, but only at considerable expense. Thus, we wish to make sure that the samples we do draw will generate the maximum possible improvement. Our method for achieving this goal iterates the following steps: 1. Present the user with a new pair and record the choice: Augment the training set of paired choices with the new user data. 2. Infer the valuation function: Here we use a Thurstone-Mosteller model with Gaussian processes. See Sections 2.1 and 2.2 for details. Note that we are not interested in predicting the value of the valuation function over the entire feasible domain, but rather in predicting it well near the optimum. 3. Formulate a statistical measure for exploration-exploitation: We refer to this measure as the expected improvement function (EIF). Its maximum indicates where to sample next. EI is a function of the Gaussian process predictions over the feasible domain. See Section 2.3. 4. Optimize the expected improvement function to obtain the next query point: Finding the maximum of the EI corresponds to a constrained nonlinear programming problem. See Section 2.3. 2.1 Preference Learning Model Assume we have shown the user M pairs of items. In each case, the user has chosen which item she likes best. The dataset therefore consists of the ranked pairs D = {rk  ck ; k = 1, . . . , M }, where the symbol  indicates that the user prefers r to c. We use x1:N = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xN }, xi ? X ? Rd , to denote the N elements in the training data. That is, rk and ck correspond to two elements of x1:N . Our goal is to compute the item x (not necessarily in the training data) with the highest user valuation in as few comparisons as possible. We model the valuation functions u(?) for r and c as follows: u(rk ) u(ck ) = f (rk ) + erk = f (ck ) + eck , 3 (1) where the noise terms are Gaussian: erk ? N (0, ? 2 ) and eck ? N (0, ? 2 ). Following [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005b], we assign a nonparametric Gaussian process prior to the unknown mean valua 1 tion: f (?) ? GP (0, K(?, ?)). That is, at the N training points. p(f ) = |2?K|? 2 exp ? 12 f T K?1 f , where f = {f (x1 ), f (x2 ), . . . , f (xN )} and the symmetric positive definite covariance K has entries (kernels) Kij = k(xi , xj ). Initially we learned these parameters via maximum likelihood, but soon realized that this was unsound due to the scarcity of data. To remedy this, we elected to use subjective priors using simple heuristics, such as expected dataset spread. Although we use Gaussian processes as a principled method of modelling the valuation, other techniques, such as wavelets could also be adopted. Random utility models such as (1) have a long and influential history in psychology and the study of individual choice behaviour in economic markets. Daniel McFadden?s Nobel Prize speech [McFadden, 2001] provides a glimpse of this history. Many more comprehensive treatments appear in classical economics books on discrete choice theory. Under our Gaussian utility models, the probability that item r is preferred to item c is given by:   f (rk ) ? f (ck ) ? , P (rk  ck ) = P (u(rk ) > u(ck )) = P (eck ? erk < f (rk ) ? f (ck )) = ? 2?  R dk where ? (dk ) = ?12? ?? exp ?a2 /2 da is the cumulative function of the standard Normal distribution. This model, relating binary observations to a continuous latent function, is known as the Thurstone-Mosteller law of comparative judgement [Thurstone, 1927; Mosteller, 1951]. In statistics it goes by the name of binomial-probit regression. Note that one could also easily adopt a logis?1 tic (sigmoidal) link function ? (dk ) = (1 + exp (?dk )) . In fact, such choice is known as the Bradley-Terry model [Stern, 1990]. If the user had more than two choices one could adopting a multinomial-probit model. This multi-category extension would, for example, enable the user to state no preference for any of the two items being presented. 2.2 Inference Our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution of the latent utility function given the discrete data. QM )?f (ck ) . Although That is, we want to compute p(f |D) ? p(f ) k=1 p(dk |f ), where dk = f (rk? 2? there exist sophisticated variational and Monte Carlo methods for approximating this distribution, we favor a simple strategy: Laplace approximation. Our motivation for doing this is the simplicity and computational efficiency of this technique. Moreover, given the amount of uncertainty in user valuations, we believe the choice of approximating technique plays a small role and hence we expect the simple Laplace approximation to perform reasonably in comparison to other techniques. The application of the Laplace approximation is fairly straightforward, and we refer the reader to [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005b] for details. Finally, given an arbitrary test pair, the predicted utility f ? and f are jointly Gaussian. Hence, one can obtain the conditional p(f ? |f ) easily. Moreover, the predictive distribution p(f ? |D) follows by R ? ? straightforward convolution of two Gaussians: p(f |D) = p(f |f )p(f |D)df . One of the criticisms of Gaussian processes, the fact that they are slow with large data sets, is not a problem for us, since active learning is designed explicitly to minimize the number of training data. 2.3 The Expected Improvement Function Now that we are armed with an expression for the predictive distribution, we can use it to decide what the next query should be. In loose terms, the predictive distribution will enable us to balance the tradeoff of exploiting and exploring. When exploring, we should choose points where the predicted variance is large. When exploiting, we should choose points where the predicted mean is large (high valuation). Let x? be an arbitrary new instance. Its predictive distribution p(f ? (x? )|D) has sufficient statis?1 ? tics {?(x? ) = k?T K?1 f M AP , s2 (x? ) = k?? ? k?T (K + C?1 k }, where, now, k?T = M AP ) ? ? ?? ? ? [k(x , x1 ) ? ? ? k(x , xN )] and k = k(x , x ). Also, let ?max denote the highest estimate of the predictive distribution thus far. That is, ?max is the highest valuation for the data provided by the individual. 4 1 1 0.8 0.8 ?4 x 10 0.4 2.5 0 0.4 6 0.2 2 0.6 8 0.6 3 0.2 4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2 0 1 ?2 0.5 ?4 1 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Figure 2: The 2D test function (left), and the estimate of the function based on the results of a typical run of 12 preference queries (right). The true function has eight local and one global maxima. The predictor identifies the region of the global maximum correctly and that of the local maxima less well, but requires far fewer queries than learning the entire function. The probability of improvement at a point x? is simply given by a tail probability:   ?max ? ?(x? ) p(f ? (x? ) ? ?max ) = ? , s(x? ) where f ? (x? ) ? N (?(x? ), s2 (x? )). This statistical measure of improvement has been widely used in the field of experimental design and goes back many decades [Kushner, 1964]. However, it is known to be sensitive to the value of ?max . To overcome this problem, [Jones et al., 1998] defined the improvement over the current best point as I(x? ) = max{0, ?(x? ) ? ?max }, which resulted in an expected improvement of  (?max ? ?(x? ))?(d) + s(x? )?(d) if s > 0 ? EI(x ) = 0 if s = 0 where d = ?max ??(x? ) . s(x? ) To find the point at which to sample, we still need to maximize the constrained objective EI(x? ) over x? . Unlike the original unknown cost function, EI(?) can be cheaply sampled. Furthermore, for the purposes of our application, it is not necessary to guarantee that we find the global maximum, merely that we can quickly locate a point that is likely to be as good as possible. The original EGO work used a branch-and-bound algorithm, but we found it was very difficult to get good bounds over large regions. Instead we use DIRECT [Jones et al., 1993], a fast, approximate, derivativefree optimization algorithm, though we conjecture that for larger dimensional spaces, sequential quadratic programming with interior point methods might be a better alternative. 3 Experiments The goal of our algorithm is to find a good approximation of the maximum of a latent function using preference queries. In order to measure our method?s effectiveness in achieving this goal, we create a function f for which the optimum is known. At each time step, a query is generated in which two points x1 and x2 are adaptively selected, and the preference is found, where f (x1 ) > f (x2 ) ? x1  x2 . After each preference, we measure the error, defined as  = fmax ? f (argmaxx f ? (x)), that is, the difference between the true maximum of f and the value of f at the point predicted to be the maximum. Note that by design, this does not penalize the algorithm for drawing samples from X that are far from argmaxx , or for predicting a latent function that differs from the true function. We are not trying to learn the entire valuation function, which would take many more queries ? we seek only to maximize the valuation, which involves accurate modelling only in the areas of high valuation. We measured the performance of our method on three functions ? 2D, 4D and 6D. By way of demonstration, Figure 2 shows the actual 2D functions and the typical prediction after several queries. The test functions are defined as: f2d = max{0, sin(x1 ) + x1 /3 + sin(12x1 ) + sin(x2 ) + x2 /3 + sin(12x2 ) ? 1} f4d,6d = d X sin(xi ) + xi /3 + sin(12xi ) i=1 5 1.0 2D function 0.8 ? 4.0 4D function 8.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 5.0 6D function 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 10 20 30 40 0.0 10 20 30 preference queries 40 4.0 10 20 30 40 Figure 3: The evolution of error for the estimate of the optimum on the test functions. The plot shows the error evolution  against the number of queries. The solid line is our method; the dashed is a baseline comparison in which each query point is selected randomly. The performance is averaged over 20 runs, with the error bars showing the variance of . all defined over the range [0, 1]d . We selected these equations because they seem both general and difficult enough that we can safely assume that if our method works well on them, it should work on a large class of real-world problems ? they have multiple local minima to get trapped in and varying landscapes and dimensionality. Unfortunately, there has been little work in the psychoperception literature to indicate what a good test function would be for our problem, so we have had to rely to an extent on our intuition to develop suitable test cases. The results of the experiments are shown in Figure 3. In all cases, we simulate 50 queries using our method (here called maxEI ). As a baseline, we compare against 50 queries using the maximum variance of the model (maxs ), which is a common criterion in active learning for regression [Seo et al., 2000; Chu and Ghahramani, 2005a]. We repeated each experiment 20 times and measured the mean and variance of the error evolution. We find that it takes far fewer queries to find a good result using maxEI in all cases. In the 2D case, for example, after 20 queries, maxEI already has better average performance than maxs achieves after 50, and in both the 2D and 4D scenarios, maxEI steadily improves until it find the optima, while maxs soon reaches a plateau, improving only slightly, if at all, while it tries to improve the global fit to the latent function. In the 6D scenario, neither algorithm succeeds well in finding the optimum, though maxEI clearly comes closer. We believe the problem is that in six dimensions, the space is too large to adequately explore with so few queries, and variance remains quite high throughout the space. We feels that requiring more than 50 user queries in a real application would be unacceptable, so we are instead currently investigating extensions that will allow the user to direct the search in higher dimensions. 4 Preference Gallery for Material Design Properly modeling the appearance of a material is a necessary component of realistic image synthesis. The appearance of a material is formalized by the notion of the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). In computer graphics, BRDFs are most often specified using various analytical models observing the physical laws of reciprocity and energy conservation while also exhibiting shadowing, masking and Fresnel reflectance phenomenon. Realistic models are therefore fairly complex with many parameters that need to be adjusted by the designer. Unfortunately these parameters can interact in non-intuitive ways, and small adjustments to certain settings may result in non-uniform changes in appearance. This can make the material design process quite difficult for the end user, who cannot expected to be an expert in the field of appearance modeling. Our application is a solution to this problem, using a ?preference gallery? approach, in which users are simply required to view two or more images rendered with different material properties and indicate which ones they prefer. To maximize the valuation, we use an implementation of the model described in Section 2. In practice, the first few examples will be points of high variance, since little of the space is explored (that is, the model of user valuation is very uncertain). Later samples tend to be in regions of high valuation, as a model of the user?s interest is learned. We use our active preference learning model on an example gallery application for helping users find a desired BRDF. For the purposes of this example, we limit ourselves to isotropic materials and ignore wavelength dependent effects in reflection. The gallery uses the Ashikhmin-Shirley Phong 6 Table 1: Results of the user study algorithm latin hypercubes maxs maxEI trials 50 50 50 n (mean ? std) 18.40 ? 7.87 17.87 ? 8.60 8.56 ? 5.23 model [Ashikhmin and Shirley, 2000] for the BRDFs which was recently validated to be well suited for representing real materials [Ngan et al., 2005]. The BRDFs are rendered on a sphere under high frequency natural illumination as this has been shown to be the desired setting for human preception of reflectance [Fleming et al., 2001]. Our gallery demonstration presents the user with two BRDF images at a time. We start with four predetermined queries to ?seed? the parameter space, and after that use the learned model to select gallery images. The GP model is updated after each preference is indicated. We use parameters of real measured materials from the MERL database [Ngan et al., 2005] for seeding the parameter space, but can draw arbitrary parameters after that. 4.1 User Study To evaluate the performance of our application, we have run a simple user study in which the generated images are restricted to a subset of 38 materials from the MERL database that we deemed to be representative of the appearance space of the measured materials. The user is given the task of finding a single randomly-selected image from that set by indicating preferences. Figure 4 shows a typical user run, where we ask the user to use the preference gallery to find a provided target image. At each step, the user need only indicate the image they think looks most like the target. This would, of course, be an unrealistic scenario if we were to be evaluating the application from an HCI stance, but here we limit our attention to the model, where we are interested here in demonstrating that with human users maximizing valuation is preferable to learning the entire latent function. Using five subjects, we compared 50 trials using the EIF to select the images for the gallery (maxEI ), 50 trials using maximum variance (maxs , the same criterion as in the experiments of Section 3), and 50 trials using samples selected using a randomized Latin hypercube algorithm. In each case, one of the gallery images was the image with the highest predicted valuation and the other was selected by the algorithm. The algorithm type for each trial was randomly selected by the computer and neither the experimenter nor the subjects knew which of the three algorithms was selecting the images. The results are shown in Table 1. n is the number clicks required of the user to find the target image. Clearly maxEI dominates, with a mean n less than half that of the competing algorithms. Interestingly, selecting images using maximum variance does not perform much better than random. We suspect that this is because maxs has a tendency to select images from the corners of the parameter space, which adds limited information to the other images, whereas Latin hypercubes at least guarantees that the selected images fill the space. Active learning is clearly a powerful tool for situations where human input is required for learning. With this paper, we have shown that understanding the task ? and exploiting the quirks of human cognition ? is also essential if we are to deploy real-world active learning applications. As people come to expect their machines to act intelligently and deal with more complex environments, machine learning systems that can collaborate with users and take on the tedious parts of users? cognitive burden has the potential to dramatically affect many creative fields, from business to the arts to science. References [Ashikhmin and Shirley, 2000] M. Ashikhmin and P. Shirley. An anisotropic phong BRDF model. J. Graph. Tools, 5(2):25?32, 2000. [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005a] W. Chu and Z. Ghahramani. Extensions of Gaussian processes for ranking: semi-supervised and active learning. In Learning to Rank workshop at NIPS-18, 2005. [Chu and Ghahramani, 2005b] W. Chu and Z. Ghahramani. Preference learning with Gaussian processes. In ICML, 2005. [Cohn et al., 1996] D. A. Cohn, Z. Ghahramani, and M. I. Jordan. Active learning with statistical models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 4:129?145, 1996. 7 T arget 1. 2. 3. 4. Figure 4: A shorter-than-average but otherwise typical run of the preference gallery tool. At each (numbered) iteration, the user is provided with two images generated with parameter instances and indicates the one they think most resembles the target image (top-left) they are looking for. The boxed images are the user?s selections at each iteration. [Cooper et al., 2007] S. Cooper, A. Hertzmann, and Z. Popovi?c. Active learning for motion controllers. In SIGGRAPH, 2007. ? o, 1978] A. ? El? ? o. The Rating of Chess Players: Past and Present. Arco Publishing, New York, 1978. [El? [Fleming et al., 2001] R. Fleming, R. Dror, and E. Adelson. How do humans determine reflectance properties under unknown illumination? In CVPR Workshop on Identifying Objects Across Variations in Lighting, 2001. [Glickman and Jensen, 2005] M. E. Glickman and S. T. Jensen. Adaptive paired comparison design. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 127:279?293, 2005. [Guestrin et al., 2005] C. Guestrin, A. 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Beardsley, W. Freeman, S. Gibson, J. Hodgins, T. Kang, B. Mirtich, H. Pfister, W. Ruml, K. Ryall, J. Seims, and S. Shieber. Design galleries: A general approach to setting parameters for computer graphics and animation. Computer Graphics, 31, 1997. [McFadden, 2001] D. McFadden. Economic choices. The American Economic Review, 91:351?378, 2001. [Mosteller, 1951] F. Mosteller. Remarks on the method of paired comparisons: I. the least squares solution assuming equal standard deviations and equal correlations. Psychometrika, 16:3?9, 1951. [Ngan et al., 2005] A. Ngan, F. Durand, and W. Matusik. Experimental analysis of BRDF models. In Proceedings of the Eurographics Symposium on Rendering, pages 117?226, 2005. [Ngan et al., 2006] A. Ngan, F. Durand, and W. Matusik. Image-driven navigation of analytical BRDF models. In T. Akenine-M?oller and W. Heidrich, editors, Eurographics Symposium on Rendering, 2006. [Sasena, 2002] M. J. Sasena. 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INTERACTION AMONG OCULARITY, RETINOTOPY AND ON-CENTER/OFFCENTER PATHWAYS DURING DEVELOPMENT Shigeru Tanaka Fundamental Research Laboratories, NEC Corporation, 34 Miyukigaoka, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan ABSTRACT The development of projections from the retinas to the cortex is mathematically analyzed according to the previously proposed thermodynamic formulation of the self-organization of neural networks. Three types of submodality included in the visual afferent pathways are assumed in two models: model (A), in which the ocularity and retinotopy are considered separately, and model (B), in which on-center/off-center pathways are considered in addition to ocularity and retinotopy. Model (A) shows striped ocular dominance spatial patterns and, in ocular dominance histograms, reveals a dip in the binocular bin. Model (B) displays spatially modulated irregular patterns and shows single-peak behavior in the histograms. When we compare the simulated results with the observed results, it is evident that the ocular dominance spatial patterns and histograms for models (A) and (B) agree very closely with those seen in monkeys and cats. 1 INTRODUCTION A recent experimental study has revealed that spatial patterns of ocular dominance columns (ODes) observed by autoradiography and profiles of the ocular dominance histogram (ODH) obtained by electrophysiological experiments differ greatly between monkeys and cats. ODes for cats in the tangential section appear as beaded patterns with an irregularly fluctuating bandwidth (Anderson, Olavarria and Van Sluyters 1988); ODes for monkeys are likely to be straight parallel stripes (Hubel, Wiesel and LeVay, 1977). The typical ODH for cats has a single peak in the middle of the ocular dominance corresponding to balanced response in ocularity (Wiesel and Hubel, 1974). In contrast to this, the ODH for monkeys has a dip in the middle of the ocular dominance (Hubel and Wiesel, 1963). Furthermore, neurons in the input layer of the cat's primary visual cortex exhibit orientation selectivity, while those of the monkey do not Through these comparisons, we can observe distinct differences in the anatomical and physiological properties of neural projections from the retinas to the visual cortex in monkeys and cats. To obtain a better understanding of these differences, theoretical analyses of interactions among ocularity, retinotopy and on-center/off-center pathways during visual 18 Interaction Among Ocularity, Retinotopy and On-center/Off-center Pathways cortical development were performed with computer simulation based on the previously proposed thermodynamic formulation of the self-organization of neural networks (fanaka, 1990). Two models for the development of the visual afferent pathways are assumed: model (A), in which the development of ocular dominance and retinotopic order is laken into account, and model (B), in which the development of on-center/off-center pathway terminals is considered in addition to ocular dominance and retinotopic order. 2 MODEL DESCRIPTION The synaptic connection density of afferent fibers from the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) in a local equilibrium state is represented by the Potts spin variables C1,i.J"S because of their strong winner-lake-all process (Tanaka, 1990). The following function nq<{ C1,l,J'P gives the distribution of the Potts spins in equilibrium: 1req ( (aj, l'll? = .1 exp( _H( (OJ,l,ll}) Z T with Z = L exp( _H( (OJ,l,Il}) {q,l,Jl=l,O} T ) (1) . (2) The Hamiltonian H in the argument of the exponential function in (1) and (2) determines the behavior of this spin system at the effective temperature T, where H is given by (3) Function VJ,J ~~ represents the interaction between synapses at positions j and j' in layer 4 of the primary visual cortex; function r~k,~ represents the correlation in activity between LGN neurons at positions k and k' of cell types 11- and 11-'. The set Hj represents a group of LGN neurons which can project their axons to the position j in the visual cortex; therefore, the magnitude of this set is related to the extent of afferent terminal arborization in the cortex A.A. Taking the above formulation into consideration, we have only to discuss the thermodynamics in the Potts spin system described by the Hamiltonian H at the temperature T in order to discuss the activity-dependent self-organization of afferent neural connections during development. Next, let us discuss more specific descriptions on the modeling of the visual afferent pathways. We will assume that the LGN serves only as a relay nucleus and that the signal is transferred from the retina to the cortex as if they were directly connected. Therefore, the correlation function r~k,~ can be treated as that in the retinas r:}I;Ic',~, This function is given by using the lateral interaction function in the retina Vl~'c' and the correlation function 19 20 Tanaka of stimuli to RGCs Gq Jl:12: in the following: (4) For simplicity. the stimuli are treated as white noise: (5) Now. we can obtain two models for the formation of afferent synaptic connections between the retinas and the primary visual cortex: model (A). in which ocularity and retinotopy are taken into account: tIE (left. right). K = [1 '1] . (6) '1 1 where 11 (0 ~ n ~ 1 ) is the correlation of activity between the left and right retinas; and model (B). in which on-center and off-center pathways are added to model (A): tIE {(left. on-center). (left. Off-center). (right. on-center). (right. off-center)} K= 1 '1 +1'2 '1 +1'2 1 n n '1 '1 ? '1 '1 '1 '1 (7) 1 n +1'2 '1 +1'2 1 where 1'2 (- 1 ~ '2 ~ 1 ) is the correlation of activity between the on-center and off-center RGCs in the same retina when there is no correlation between different retinas. A negative value of 1'2 means out-of-phase firings between on-center and off-center neurons. 3 COMPUTER SIMULATION Computer simulations were carried out according to the Metropolis algorithm (Metropolis. 1953; Tanaka. 1991). A square panel consisting of 80x80 grids was assumed to be the input layer of the primary visual cortex. where the length of one grid is denoted by a. The Potts spin is assigned to each grid. Free boundary conditions were adopted on the border of the panel. One square panel of 20><20 grids was assumed to be a retina for each submodality JL The length of one grid is given as 4a so that the edges for the square model cortex and model retinas are of the same length. The following form was adopted for the interactions V1v: i V kv. k' = ? qVa 2nlt v 2 a ~ d!.k' )- ex - 21t v2 a IS qVinh 2nlt v 2 inh (v= VC or R): ~ c(k') . ex - 21t v 2 illh (8) Interaction Among Ocularity, Retinotopy and On-center/Off-center Pathways All results reported in this paper were obtained with parameters whose values are ~s vc VC R follows: qVCu = 1.0, qVcw. = 5.0, A. u =0.15, A. w. = 1.0, qRu = I, A. u =0.5, A. RiIJI = 1.0, A. A = 1.6. a =0.1. T =0.001. n = 0, and r2 =- 0.2. It is assumed that qRw. =0 for model (A) while qRiIJI =0.5 for model (B). By considering that the receptive field (RF) of an RGC at position k is represented by JlVl~ l" RGCs for model (A) and (B) have lowpass and high-pass filtering properties, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation for model (A) was carried out for 200,000 steps; that for model (B) was done for 760,000 steps. L (a) (b) R (c) L (d) (e) R (f) (g) Fig. 1 Simulated results of synaptic terminal and neuronal distributions and ocular dominance histograms for models (A) and (B). 21 22 Tanaka 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS The distributions of synaptic terminals and neurons, and ocular dominance histograms are shown in Fig. I, where (a), (b) and (c) were obtained from model (A); (d), (e), (f) and (g) were obtained from model (B). The spatial distribution of synaptic terminals originating from the left or right retina (Figs. 1a and 1d) is a counterpart of an autoradiograph of the one by the eye-injection of radiolabeled amino acid. The bandwidth of the simulated one (Fig. 1a) is almost constant as well as the observed bandwidth for monkeys (Hubel and Wiesel, 1974). The distribution of ocularity in synaptic terminals shown in Fig. 1d is irregular in that the periodicity seen in Fig. 1a disappears even though a patchy pattern can be seen. This pattern is quite similar to the ODe for cats (Anderson, Olavarria and Van Sluyters 1988). By calculating the convolution of the synaptic connections q.l.Il'S with the cortical interaction function v.J.J~, the ocular dominance in response of cortical cells to monocular stimulation and the spatial pattern of the ocular dominance in activity (Figs. 1b and Ie) were obtained. Neurons specifically responding to stimuli presented in the right and left eyes are, respectively, in the black and white domains. This pattern is a counterpart of an electrophysiological pattern of the ODe. The distributions of ocularity in synaptic terminals correspond to those of ocular dominance in neuronal response to monocular stimulation (a to b; d to e in Fig. 1). This suggests that the borders of the autoradiographic ODe pattern coincide with those of the electrophysiological ODe pattern. This correspondence is not trivial since strong lateral inhibition exerts in the cortex. Reflecting the narrow transition areas between monocular domains in Fig. 1b, a dip appears in the binocular bin in the corresponding ODH (Fig. 1c). In contrast, the profile of the ODH (Fig. If) has a single peak in the binocular bin since binocularly responsive neurons are distributed over the cortex (Fig. Ie). In model (B), on-center and off-center terminals are also segregated in the cortex in superposition to the ODe paUern (Fig. 19). No correlation can be seen between the spatial distribution of on-center/off-center terminals and the one pattern (Fig.1d). (a) (b) (c) Fig. 2 A visual stimulation pattern (a) and the distributions of active synaptic terminals in the cortex [(b) for model (A) and (c) for model (B)]. Figures 2b and 2c visualize spatial patterns of active synaptic terminals in the cortex for model (A) and model (B), when the light stimulus shown by Fig.1d is presented to both Interaction Among Ocularity, Retinotopy and On-center/Off-center Pathways retinas. A pattern similar to the stimulus appears in the cortex for model (A) (Fig. Ie). This supports the observation that retinotopic order is almost achieved. In other simulations for model (A), the retinotopic order in the final pattern was likely to be achieved when initial patterns were roughly ordered in retinotopy. In model (B), the retinotopic order seems to be broken at least in this system size even though the initial pattern has a well-ordered retinotopy (Fig. lc). There is a tendency for retinotopy to be harder to preserve in model (B) than in model (A). L L R (a) (c) R (b) (d) (e) Fig. 3 Representative receptive fields obtained from simulations. Model (A) reproduced only concentric RFs for both eyes. The dominant RFs of monocular neurons were of the on-center/off-surround type (right in Fig. 3a); the other RFs of the same neurons were of the type of the low-pass filter which has only the off response (left in Fig. 3a). In Model (B), RFs of cortical neurons generally had complex structures (Fig. 3b). It can barely be recognized that the dominant RFs of monocular neurons showed simple-cell-like RFs. To determine why model (B) produced complex structures in RFs, another simulation of RF formation was carried out based on a model where retinotopy and on-center/off-center pathways are considered. Various types of RFs emerged in the cortex (bottom row in Fig. 3). The difference in structures between Figures. 3c and 3e shows the difference in the orientation and the phase (the deviation of the on region from the RF center) in the simplecell-like RFs. Fig. 3d shows an on-center concentric RF. Such nonoriented RFs were likely to appear in the vicinity of the singular points around which the orientation rotates by 180 degrees. Simulations for model (A) with different values of parameters such as qVcw., A. A and qRw. were also carried out although the results are not visualized here. When qvcjM takes a small 23 24 Tanaka value, the OOC bandwidth fluctuates). However large the fluctuation may be, the left-eye or right-eye dominant domains are well connected, and the pattern does not become an irregular beaded pattern as seen in the cat OOC. When afferent axonal arbors were widely spread in the cortex (,t A ? I), segregated OOC stripe patterns had only small fluctuation in the bandwidth. qRw. = 0 corresponds to a monotonically decreasing function Vl~l' with respect to the radial distance dk.)'. When qRw. was increased from zero, the number of monocular neurons was decreased. Therefore, the profile of the ODH changes from that in Fig. 1c. In model (B), as the value of T'}. became smaller, on-center and off-center terminals were more sharply segregated, and the average size of the OOC patches became smaller. The segregation of on-center and off-center terminals seems to interfere strongly with the development of the ODe and the retinotopic organization. This may be attributed to the competition between ocularity and on-center/off-center pathways. We have seen that only concentric or simple-cell-like RFs can be obtained (Fig. 3b) unless both the ocularity and the on-center/off-center pathways are taken into account in simulations. However, in model (B) in which the two types of submodality are treated, neurons have complex separated RF structures (Fig. 3b). This also seems to be due to the competition among the ocularity and the on-center/off-center pathways. The simulation of model (B) was performed with no correlation in activity between the left and right eyes 1'l. This condition can be realized for binocularly deprived kittens (Tanaka, 1989). By considering this, we may conclude that the formation of normal RFs needs cooperative binocular input In this research, we did not consider the effect of color-related cell types on OOC formation. Actually, there are varieties of single-opponent cells in the retina and LGN of monkeys such as four types of red-green opponent cells: a red on-center cell with a green inhibitory surround; a green on-center cell with a red inhibitory surround; a red off-center cell with a green excitatory surround; and a green off-center cell with a red excitatory surround. The correlation of activity between red on-center and green on-center cells or green off-center and red off-center cells may be positive in view of the fact that the spectral response functions between three photoreceptors overlap on the axis of the wavelength. However, the red oncenter and green on-center cells antagonize the red off-center and green off-center cells, respectively. Therefore, the former two and latter two can be looked upon as the on-center and off-center cells seen in the retina of cats. This implies that the model for monkeys should be model (B); thereby, the ODC pattern for monkeys should be an irregular beaded pattern despite the fact that the OOC and ODH in model (A) resemble those for monkeys. To avoid such contradiction, the on-center and off-center cells must separately send their axons into different sublayers within layer 4e~, as seen in the visual cortex for Tree shrews (Fitzpatrick and Raczkowski, 1990). 5 CONCLUSION In model (A), the OOC showed the striped pattern and the ODH revealed a dip in the binocular bin. In contrast to this, model (B) reproduced spatially modulated irregular OOC patterns and the single-peak behavior of the ODH. From comparison of these simulated results with experimental observations, it is evident that the OOCs and ODHs for models (A) and (B) agree very closely with those seen in monkeys and cats, respectively. Therefore, this leads to the conclusion that model (A) describes the development of the afferent fiber terminals of the primary visual cortex of monkeys, while model (B) describes that of the Interaction Among Ocularity, Retinotopy and On-center/Off-center Pathways cat. In fact. the assumption of the negative correlation (7'2 < 0) between the on-center and off-center pathways in model (B) is consistent with the experiments on correlated activity between on-center and off-center RGCs for cats (Mastronarde. 1988). Finally. we predict the following with regard to afferent projections for cats and monkeys. [1] In the input layer of the visual cortex for cats. on-center/off-center pathway terminals are segregated into patches. superposing the ocular dominance patterns. [2] In monkeys, the axons from on-center/off-center cells in the LGN terminate in different sublayers in layer 4C~ of the primary visual cortex. Acknowledgment The author thanks Mr.Miyashita for his help in performing computer simulations of receptive field formation. References P.A. Anderson, J. Olavarria & R.C. Van Sluyters. (1988) The overall pattern of ocular dominance bands in the cat visual cortex. J. Neurosci.. 8: 2183-2200. D.H. Hubel, T.N. Wiesel and S. LeVay. (1977). Plasticity of ocular dominance columns in monkey striate cortex. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond .? B278: 377-409. T.N. Wiesel and D.H. Hubel. (l974).Ordered arrangement of orientation columns in monkeys lacking visual experience. J. Compo Neurol. 158: 307-318 D.H. Hubel and T.N. Wiesel. (1963). Receptive fields, binocular interaction and functional architecture in the cat's visual cortex. J. Physiol.. 160: 106-154. S. Tanaka. (1990) Theory of self-organization of cortical maps: Mathematical framework. Neural Networks, 3: 625-640. N. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth. M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller and E. Teller. (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J. Chern. Phys., 21: 10871092. S. Tanaka. (1991) Theory of ocular dominance column formation: Mathematical basis and computer simulation. BioI. Cybem., in press. S. Tanaka. (1989) Theory of self-organization of cortical maps. In D. S. Touretzky (ed.), Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1.451-458, San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufmann. D. Fitzpatrick and D. Raczkowski. (1990) Innervation patterns of single physiologically identified geniculocortical axons in the striate cortex of the tree shrew. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 87: 449-453. D. N. Mastronarde. (1989) Correlated firing of retinal ganglion cells. Trends in Neurosci. 12: 75-80. 25
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Receptive Fields without Spike-Triggering Jakob H Macke j a k o b@ t u e bi n g e n . mpg . de Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics S pemannstrasse 41 72076 T u? bingen, Germany ? G unther Zeck z e c k @ n e u r o . mpg . de Max Planck Institute of Neurobiology Am Klopferspitze 1 8 8 21 52 Martinsried, Germany Matthias Bethge mbe t hg e @ t u e bi n g e n . mpg . de Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics S pemannstrasse 41 72076 T u? bingen, Germany Abstract S timulus selectivity of sensory neurons is often characterized by estimating their receptive ?eld properties such as orientation selectivity. Receptive ?elds are usually derived from the mean (or covariance) of the spike-triggered stimulus ensemble. This approach treats each spike as an independent message but does not take into account that information might be conveyed through patterns of neural activity that are distributed across space or time. Can we ?nd a concise description for the processing of a whole population of neurons analogous to the receptive ?eld for single neurons? Here, we present a generalization of the linear receptive ?eld which is not bound to be triggered on individual spikes but can be meaningfully linked to distributed response patterns. More precisely, we seek to identify those stimulus features and the corresponding patterns of neural activity that are most reliably coupled. We use an extension of reverse-correlation methods based on canonical correlation analysis. The resulting population receptive ?elds span the subspace of stimuli that is most informative about the population response. We evaluate our approach using both neuronal models and multi-electrode recordings from rabbit retinal ganglion cells. We show how the model can be extended to capture nonlinear stimulus-response relationships using kernel canonical correlation analysis, which makes it possible to test different coding mechanisms. Our technique can also be used to calculate receptive ?elds from multi-dimensional neural measurements such as those obtained from dynamic imaging methods. 1 Introduction Visual input to the retina consists of complex light intensity patterns. The interpretation of these patterns constitutes a challenging problem: for computational tasks like object recognition, it is not clear what information about the image should be extracted and in which format it should be represented. S imilarly, it is dif?cult to assess what information is conveyed by the multitude of neurons in the visual pathway. Right from the ?rst synapse, the information of an individual photoreceptor is signaled to many different cells with different temporal ?ltering properties, each of which is only a small unit within a complex neural network [ 20] . Even if we leave the dif?culties imposed by nonlinearities and feedback aside, it is hard to judge what the contribution of any particular neuron is to the information transmitted. 1 The prevalent tool for characterizing the behavior of sensory neurons, the spike triggered average, is based on a quasi-linear model of neural responses [ 1 5] . For the sake of clarity, we consider an idealized model of the signaling channel y = Wx + ? , (1 ) where y = ( y1 , . . . , yN ) T denotes the vector of neural responses, x the stimulus parameters, W = ( w 1 , . . . , w N ) T the ?lter matrix with row ? k? containing the receptive ?eld w k of neuron k, and ? is the noise. The spike-triggered average only allows description of the stimulus-response function (i. e. the w k ) of one single neuron at a time. In order to understand the collective behavior of a neuronal population, we rather have to understand the behavior of the matrix W, and the structure of the noise correlations ? ? : Both of them in?uence the feature selectivity of the population. Can we ?nd a compact description of the features that a neural ensemble is most sensitive to? In the case of a single cell, the receptive ?eld provides such a description: It can be interpreted as the ?favorite stimulus? of the neuron, in the sense that the more similar an input is to the receptive ?eld, the higher is the spiking probability, and thus the ?ring rate of the neuron. In addition, the receptive ?eld can easily be estimated using a spike-triggered average, which, under certain assumptions, yields the optimal estimate of the receptive ?eld in a linear-nonlinear cascade model [ 1 1 ] . If we are considering an ensemble of neurons rather than a single neuron, it is not obvious what to trigger on: This requires assumptions about what patterns of spikes or modulations in ?ring rates across the population carry information about the stimulus. Rather than addressing the question ?what features of the stimulus are correlated with the occurence of spikes?, the question now is: ?What stimulus features are correlated with what patterns of spiking activity?? [ 1 4] . Phrased in the language of information theory, we are searching for the subspace that contains most of the mutual information between sensory inputs and neuronal responses. By this dimensionality reduction technique, we can ?nd a compact description of the processing of the population. As an ef?cient implementation of this strategy, we present an extension of reverse-correlation methods based on canonical correlation analysis. The resulting population receptive ?elds (PRFs) are not bound to be triggered on individual spikes but are linked to response patterns that are simultaneously determined by the algorithm. We calculate the PRF for a population consisting of uniformly spaced cells with center-surround receptive ?elds and noise correlations, and estimate the PRF of a population of rabbit retinal ganglion cells from multi-electrode recordings. In addition, we show how our method can be extended to explore different hypotheses about the neural code, such as spike latencies or interval coding, which require nonlinear read out mechanisms. 2 From reverse correlation to canonical correlation We regard the stimulus at time t as a random variable Xt ? R n , and the neural response as Yt ? R m . For simplicity, we assume that the stimulus consists of Gaussian white noise, i. e. E( X) = 0 and Cov( X) = I. The spike-triggered average a of a neuron can be motivated by the fact that it is the direction in stimulus-space maximizing the correlation-coef?cient ?= ? Cov( a T X, Y1 ) Var( a T X) Var( Y1 ) . (2) between the ?ltered stimulus a T X and a univariate neural response Y1 . In the case of a neural population, we are not only looking for the stimulus feature a, but also need to determine what pattern of spiking activity b it is coupled with. The natural extension is to search for those vectors a 1 and b 1 that maximize T Cov( a T 1 X, b 1 Y) . (3 ) ?1 = ? T Var( a T 1 X) Var( b 1 Y) We interpret a 1 as the stimulus ?lter whose output is maximally correlated with the output of the ?response ?lter? b 1 . Thus, we are simultaneously searching for features of the stimulus that the neural system is selective for, and the patterns of activity that it uses to signal the presence or absence 2 of this feature. We refer to the vector a 1 as the (?rst) population receptive ?eld of the population, and b 1 is the response feature corresponding to a 1 . If a hypothetical neuron receives input from the population, and wants to decode the presence of the stimulus a 1 , the weights of the optimal linear readout [ 1 6] could be derived from b 1 . Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) [ 9] is an algorithm that ?nds the vectors a 1 and b 1 that maximize (3 ): We denote the covariances of X and Y by ? x , ? y , the cross-covariance by ? x y , and the whitened cross-covariance by C = ? x( ? 1 / 2 ) ? x y ? y( ? 1 / 2 ) . (4) Let C = UDV T denote the singular value decomposition of C, where the entries of the diagonal matrix D are non-negative and decreasing along the diagonal. Then, the k-th pair of canonical ( ? 1 /2) ( ? 1 /2) u k and b k = ? y v k , where u k and v k are the k-th column variables is given by a k = ? x vectors of U and V, respectively. Furthermore, the k-th singular value of C, i. e. the k-th diagonal T T T entry of D is the correlation-coef?cient ? k of a T k Xand b k Y. The random variables a i X and a j X are uncorrelated for i ?= j. Importantly, the solution for the optimization problem in CCA is unique and can be computed ef?ciently via a single eigenvalue problem. The population receptive ?elds and the characteristic patterns are found by a joint optimization in stimulus and response space. Therefore, one does not need to know?or assume?a priori what features the population is sensitive to, or what spike patterns convey the information. The ?rst K PRFs form a basis for the subspace of stimuli that the neural population is most sensitive to, and the individual basis vectors a k are sorted according to their ?informativeness? [ 1 3 , 1 7] . The mutual information between two one-dimensional Gaussian Variables with correlation ? is given by MI G a us s = ? 21 log( 1 ? ? 2 ) , so maximizing correlation coef?cients is equivalent to maximizing mutual information [ 3 ] . Assuming the neural response Y to be Gaussian, the subspace spanned by the ?rst K vectors B K = ( b 1 , . . . , b K ) is also the K-subspace of stimuli that contains the maximal amount of mutual information between stimuli and neural response. That is B K = argmax B ? Rn ? k ` ? det B T ? y B ? ? ? ? (?1) det B T ? y ? ? T ?xy B xy ?x . (5) Thus, in terms of dimensionality reduction, CCA optimizes the same objective as oriented PCA [ 5] . In contrast to oriented PCA, however, CCA does not require one to know explicitly how the response covariance ? y = ? s + ? ? splits into signal ? s and noise ? ? covariance. Instead, it uses the cross-covariance ? x y which is directly available from reverse correlation experiments. In addition, CCA not only returns the most predictable response features b 1 , . . . b K but also the most predictive stimulus components A K = ( a 1 , . . . a K ) . For general Y and for stimuli X with elliptically contoured distribution, MI G a us s ? J( A T X) provides a lower bound to the mutual information between A T X and B T Y, where J( A T X) = 1 log( det( 2 ?eA T ? x A) ) ? h( A T X) 2 (6) is the Negentropy of A T X, and h( A T X) its differential entropy. S ince for elliptically contoured distributions J( A T X) does not depend on A, the PRFs can be seen as the solution of a variational approach, maximizing a lower bound to the mutual information. Maximizing mutual information directly is hard, requires extensive amounts of data, and usually multiple repetitions of the same stimulus sequence. 3 The receptive ?eld of a population of neurons 3.1 The effect of tuning functions and noise correlations To illustrate the relationship between the tuning-functions of individual neurons and the PRFs [ 22] , we calculate the ?rst PRF of a simple one-dimensional population model consisting of center3 ? ? 1 ? x ? c?2 f ( x) = exp ? ? A exp 2 ? ? ? 2! surround neurons. Each tuning function is modeled by a ?Difference of Gaussians? (DOG) 1 ? 2 x? c ? (7) whose centers c are uniformly distributed over the real axis. The width ? of the negative Gaussian is set to be twice as large as the width ? of the positive Gaussian. If the area of both Gaussians is the same ( A = 1 ) , the DC component of the DOG-?llter is zero, i. e. the neuron is not sensitive to the mean luminance of the stimulus. If the ratio between both areas becomes substantially unbalanced, the DC component will become the largest signal ( A ? 0) . In addition to the parameter A, we will study the length scale of noise correlations ? [ 1 8 ] . S peci?cally, we assume exponentially decaying noise correlation with ? ? ( s ) = exp( ? | s | / ?) . As this model is invariant under spatial shifts, the ?rst PRF can be calculated by ?nding the spatial frequency at which the S NR is maximal. That is, the ?rst PRF can be used to estimate the passband of the population transfer function. The S NR is given by ? ? 1 + ?2 ?2 2? S NR( ?) = e? ? 2 ?2 + A2 e? ? 2 ?2 ? 2 Ae ? ?2 +?2 2 ?2 ??2 . (8 ) The passband of the ?rst population ?lter moves as a function of both parameters A and ?. It equals the DC component for small A (i. e. large imbalance) and small ? (i. e. short correlation length). In this case, the mean intensity is the stimulus property that is most faithfully signaled by the ensemble. 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 A 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 1 ? 1.5 2 0 Figure 1 : S patial frequency of the ?rst PRF for the model described above. ? is the length-scale of the noise correlations, A is the weight of the negative Gaussian in the DOG-model. The region in the bottom left corner (bounded by the white line) is the part of the parameter-space in which the PRF equals the DC component. 3.2 The receptive ?eld of an ensemble of retinal ganglion cells We mapped the population receptive ?elds of rabbit retinal ganglion cells recorded with a wholemount preparation. We are not primarily interested in prediction performance [ 1 2] , but rather in dimensionality reduction: We want to characterize the ?ltering properties of the population. The neurons were stimulated with a 1 6 ? 1 6 checkerboard consisting of binary white noise which was updated every 20ms. The experimental procedures are described in detail in [ 21 ] . After spikesorting, spike trains from 32 neurons were binned at 2 0ms resolution, and the response of a neuron to a stimulus at time t was de?ned to consist of the the spike-counts in the 1 0 bins between 40ms and 240ms after t. Thus, each population response Yt is a 3 20 dimensional vector. Figure 3 . 2 A) displays the ?rst 6 PRFs, the corresponding patterns of neural activity (B) and their correlation coef?cients ? k (which were calculated using a cross-validation procedure). It can be seen that the PRFs look very different to the usual center-surrond structure of retinal ganglion. However, one should keep in mind that it is really the space spanned by the PRFs that is relevant, and thus be careful when interpreting the actual ?lter shapes [ 1 5] . For comparison, we also plotted the single-cell receptive ?elds in Figure 3 . 2 C), and their projections into the spaced spanned by the ?rst 6 PRFs. These plots suggest that a small number of PRFs might 4 be suf?cient to approximate each of the receptive ?elds. To determine the dimensionality of the relevant subspace, we analyzed the correlation-coef?cients ? k . The Gaussian Mutual Information ?K MI G a us s = ? 12 k = 1 log( 1 ? ? 2k ) is an estimate of the information contained in the subspace spanned by the ?rst K PRFs. Based on this measure, a 1 2 dimensional subspace accounts for 90% of the total information. In order to link the empirically estimated PRFs with the theoretical analysis in section 3 . 1 , we calculated the spectral properties of the ?rst PRF. Our analysis revealed that most of the power is in the low frequencies, suggesting that the population is in the parameter-regime where the single-cell receptive ?elds have power in the DC-component and the noise-correlations have short range, which is certainly reasonable for retinal ganglion cells [ 4] . 0.51 0.44 0.38 0.35 0.29 0.27 B) 5 5 5 5 5 5 Neuron index A) 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 30 30 40 160 220 Time ? 40 30 160 220 40 30 160 220 40 30 160 220 40 0.2 0 ?0.2 30 160 220 40 160 220 Proj. RF RF Proj. RF RF C) Figure 2: The population receptive ?elds of a group of 32 retinal ganglion cells: A) the ?rst 6 PRFs, as sorted by the correlation coef?cient ? k B) the response features b k coupled with the PRFs. Each row of each image corresponds to one neuron, and each column to one time-bin. Blue color denotes enhanced activity, red suppressed. It can be seen that only a subset of neurons contributed to the ?rst 6 PRFs. C) The single-cell receptive ?elds of 2 4 neurons from our population, and their projections into the space spanned by the 6 PRFs. 5 B) 0.6 0.5 0.4 Percentage of MI Correlations coefficients ?k A) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 ?0.1 1 5 10 15 20 30 PRF index 40 100 90 80 60 40 20 0 50 1 5 10 15 20 30 40 Dimensionality of subspace 50 Figure 3 : A) Correlation coef?cients ? k for the PRFs. Estimates and error-bars are calculated using a cross-validation procedure. B) Gaussian-MI of the subspace spanned by the ?rst K PRFs. 4 Nonlinear extensions using Kernel Canonical Correlation Analysis Thus far, our model is completely linear: We assume that the stimulus is linearly related to the neural responses, and we also assume a linear readout of the response. In this section, we will explore generalizations of the CCA model using Kernel CCA: By embedding the stimulus-space nonlinearly in a feature space, nonlinear codes can be described. Kernel methods provide a framework for extending linear algorithms to the nonlinear case [ 8 ] . After projecting the data into a feature space via a feature maps ? and ?, a solution is found using linear methods in the feature space. In the case of Kernel CCA [ 1 , 1 0, 2, 7] one seeks to ?nd a linear ? = ?( X) and Y ? = ?( Y) , rather than between X and relationship between the random variables X Y. If an algorithm is purely de?ned in terms of dot-products, and if the dot-product in feature space k( s , t) = ? ?( s ) , ?( t) ? can be computed ef?ciently, then the algorithm does not require explicit calculation of the feature maps ? and ?. This ?kernel-trick? makes it possible to work in high(or in?nite)-dimensional feature spaces. It is worth mentioning that the space of patterns Y itself does not have to be a vector space. Given a data-set x 1 . . . x n , it suf?ces to know the dot-products between any pair of training points, Ki j : = ? ?( yi ) , ?( yj ) ? . The kernel function k( s , t) can be seen as a similiarity measure. It incorporates our assumptions about which spike-patterns should be regarded as similar ?messages?. Therefore, the choice of the kernel-function is closely related to speci?ng what the search-space of potential neural codes is. A number of distance- and kernel-functions [ 6, 1 9] have been proposed to compute distances between spike-trains. They can be designed to take into account precisely timed pattern of spikes, or to be invariant to certain transformations such as temporal jitter. We illustrate the concept on simulated data: We will use a similarity measure based on the metric D interval [ 1 9] to estimate the receptive ?eld of a neuron which does not use its ?ring rate, but rather the occurrence of speci?c interspike intervals to convey information about the stimulus. The metric D interval between two spike-trains is essentially the cost of matching their intervals by shifting, adding or deleting spikes. (We set k( s , t) = exp( ? D( s , t) . In theory, this function is not guaranteed to be positive de?nite, which could lead to numerical problems, but we did not encounter any in our simulation. ) If we consider coding-schemes that are based on patterns of spikes, the methods described here become useful even for the analysis of single neurons. We will here concentrate on a single neuron, but the analysis can be extended to patterns distributed across several neurons. Our hypothetical neuron encodes information in a pattern consisting of three spikes: The relative timing of the second spike is informative about the stimulus: The bigger the correlation between receptive ?eld and stimulus ? r, s t ? , the shorter is the interval. If the receptive ?eld is very dissimilar to the stimulus, the interval is long. While the timing of the spikes relative to each other is precise, there is jitter in the timing of the pattern relative to the stimulus. Figure 4 A) is a raster plot of simulated spike-trains from this model, ordered by ? r, s t ? . We also included noise spikes at random times. 6 A) B) Spike trains C) D) 0 50 100 Time ? 150 200 Figure 4: Coding by spike patterns: A) Receptive ?eld of neuron described in S ection 4. B) A subset of the simulated spike-trains, sorted with respect to the similarity between the shown stimulus and the receptive ?eld of the model. The interval between the ?rst two informative spikes in each trial is highlighted in red. C) Receptive ?eld recovered by Kernel CCA, the correlation coef?cient between real and estimated receptive ?eld is 0. 93 . D) Receptive ?eld derived using linear decoding, correlation coef?cient is 0. 02 . Using these spike-trains, we tried to recover the receptive ?eld r without telling the algorithm what the indicating pattern was. Each stimulus was shown only once, and therefore, that every spikepattern occurred only once. We simulated 5 000 stimulus presentations for this model, and applied Kernel CCA with a linear kernel on the stimuli, and the alignment-score on the spike-trains. By using incomplete Cholesky decompositions [ 2] , one can compute Kernel CCA without having to calculate the full kernel matrix. As many kernels on spike trains are computationally expensive, this trick can result in substantial speed-ups of the computation. The receptive ?eld was recovered (see Figure 4), despite the highly nonlinear encoding mechanism of the neuron. For comparison, we also show what receptive ?eld would be obtained using linear decoding on the indicated bins. Although this neuron model may seem slightly contrived, it is a good proof of concept that, in principle, receptive ?elds can be estimated even if the ?ring rate gives no information at all about the stimulus, and the encoding is highly nonlinear. Our algorithm does not only look at patterns that occur more often than expected by chance, but also takes into account to what extent their occurrence is correlated to the sensory input. 5 Conclusions We set out to ?nd a useful description of the stimulus-response relationship of an ensemble of neurons akin to the concept of receptive ?eld for single neurons. The population receptive ?elds are found by a joint optimization over stimuli and spike-patterns, and are thus not bound to be triggered by single spikes. We estimated the PRFs of a group of retinal ganglion cells, and found that the ?rst PRF had most spectral power in the low-frequency bands, consistent with our theoretical analysis. The stimulus we used was a white-noise sequence?it will be interesting to see how the informative subspace and its spectral properties change for different stimuli such as colored noise. The ganglion cell layer of the retina is a system that is relatively well understood at the level of single neurons. Therefore, our results can readily be compared and connected to those obtained using conventional analysis techniques. However, our approach has the potential to be especially useful in systems in which the functional signi?cance of single cell receptive ?elds is dif?cult to interpret. 7 We usually assumed that each dimension of the response vector Y represents an electrode-recording from a single neuron. However, the vector Y could also represent any other multi-dimensional measurement of brain activity: For example, imaging modalities such as voltage-sensitive dye imaging yield measurements at multiple pixels simultaneously. Data from electro-physiological data, e. g. local ?eld potentials, are often analyzed in frequency space, i. e. by looking at the energy of the signal in different frequency bands. This also results in a multi-dimensional representation of the signal. Using CCA, receptive ?elds can readily be estimated from these kinds of representations without limiting attention to single channels or extracting neural events. Acknowledgments We would like to thank A Gretton and J Eichhorn for useful discussions, and F J?a kel, J Butler and S Liebe for comments on the manuscript. References [ 1 ] S . Akaho. A kernel method for canonical correlation analysis. In International Meeting ofPsychometric Society, Osaka, 2001 . [ 2] F. R. Bach and M. I. Jordan. Kernel independent component analysis. Journal ofMachine Learning Research, 3 : 1 : 48 , 2002. [ 3 ] G. Chechik, A. Globerson, N. Tishby, and Y. Weiss. Information Bottleneck for Gaussian Variables. The Journal ofMachine Learning Research, 6: 1 65?1 8 8 , 2005. [ 4] S . Devries and D. Baylor. Mosaic Arrangement of Ganglion Cell Receptive Fields in Rabbit Retina. Journal ofNeurophysiology, 78 (4): 2048 ?2060, 1 997. [ 5] K. Diamantaras and S . Kung. Cross-correlation neural network models. Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on, 42(1 1 ): 3 21 8 ?3 223 , 1 994. [ 6] J. Eichhorn, A. Tolias, A. Zien, M. Kuss, C. E. Rasmussen, J. Weston, N. Logothetis, and B. S cho? lkopf. Prediction on spike data using kernel algorithms. In S . Thrun, L. S aul, and B. S cho? lkopf, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1 6. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2004. [ 7] K. Fukumizu, F. R. Bach, and A. Gretton. S tatistical consistency of kernel canonical correlation analysis. Journal ofMachine Learning Research, 2007. [ 8 ] T. Hofmann, B. S cho? lkopf, and A. S mola. Kernel methods in machine learning. Annals ofStatistics (in press), 2007. [ 9] H. Hotelling. Relations between two sets of variates. Biometrika, 28 : 3 21 ?3 77, 1 93 6. [ 1 0] T. Melzer, M. Reiter, and H. Bischof. Nonlinear feature extraction using generalized canonical correlation analysis. In Proc. ofInternational Conference on Arti?cial Neural Networks (ICANN), pages 3 53 ?3 60, 8 2001 . [ 1 1 ] L. Paninski. Convergence properties of three spike-triggered analysis techniques. Network, 1 4(3 ): 43 7?64, Aug 2003 . [ 1 2] J. W. Pillow, L. Paninski, V. J. Uzzell, E. P. S imoncelli, and E. J. Chichilnisky. Prediction and decoding of retinal ganglion cell responses with a probabilistic spiking model. J Neurosci, 25(47): 1 1 003 ?1 3 , 2005. [ 1 3 ] J. W. Pillow and E. P. S imoncelli. Dimensionality reduction in neural models: an information-theoretic generalization of spike-triggered average and covariance analysis. J Vis, 6(4): 41 4?28 , 2006. [ 1 4] M. J. S chnitzer and M. Meister. Multineuronal ?ring patterns in the signal from eye to brain. Neuron, 3 7(3 ): 499?51 1 , 2003 . [ 1 5] O. S chwartz, J. W. Pillow, N. C. Rust, and E. P. S imoncelli. S pike-triggered neural characterization. J Vis, 6(4): 48 4?507, 2006. [ 1 6] H. S . S eung and H. S ompolinsky. S imple models for reading neuronal population codes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 90(22): 1 0749?53 , 1 993 . [ 1 7] T. S harpee, N. Rust, and W. Bialek. Analyzing neural responses to natural signals: maximally informative dimensions. Neural Comput, 1 6(2): 223 ?50, 2004. [ 1 8 ] H. S ompolinsky, H. Yoon, K. Kang, and M. S hamir. Population coding in neuronal systems with correlated noise. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys, 64(5 Pt 1 ): 051 904, 2001 . [ 1 9] J. Victor. S pike train metrics. Curr Opin Neurobiol, 1 5(5): 58 5?92, 2005. [ 20] H. W?a ssle. Parallel processing in the mammalian retina. Nat Rev Neurosci, 5(1 0): 747?57, 2004. [ 21 ] G. M. Zeck, Q. Xiao, and R. H. Masland. The spatial ?ltering properties of local edge detectors and brisk-sustained retinal ganglion cells. Eur J Neurosci, 22(8 ): 201 6?26, 2005. [ 22] K. Zhang and T. S ejnowski. Neuronal Tuning: To S harpen or Broaden?, 1 999. 8
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Extending position/phase-shift tuning to motion energy neurons improves velocity discrimination Stanley Yiu Man Lam and Bertram E. Shi Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering Hong Kong Univeristy of Science and Technology Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong {eelym,eebert}@ee.ust.hk Abstract We extend position and phase-shift tuning, concepts already well established in the disparity energy neuron literature, to motion energy neurons. We show that Reichardt-like detectors can be considered examples of position tuning, and that motion energy filters whose complex valued spatio-temporal receptive fields are space-time separable can be considered examples of phase tuning. By combining these two types of detectors, we obtain an architecture for constructing motion energy neurons whose center frequencies can be adjusted by both phase and position shifts. Similar to recently described neurons in the primary visual cortex, these new motion energy neurons exhibit tuning that is between purely spacetime separable and purely speed tuned. We propose a functional role for this intermediate level of tuning by demonstrating that comparisons between pairs of these motion energy neurons can reliably discriminate between inputs whose velocities lie above or below a given reference velocity. 1 Introduction Image motion is an important cue used by both biological and artificial visual systems to extract information about the environment. Although image motion is commonly used, there are different models for image motion processing in different systems. The Reichardt model is a dominant model for motion detection in insects, where image motion analysis occurs at a very early stage [1]. For mammals, the bulk of visual processing for motion is thought to occur in the cortex, and the motion energy model is one of the dominant models [2][3]. However, despite the differences in complexity between these two models, they are mathematically equivalent given appropriate choices of the spatial and temporal filters [4]. The motion energy model is very closely related to the disparity energy model, which has been used to model the outputs of disparity selective neurons in the visual cortex [5]. The disparity tuning of neurons in this model can be adjusted via two mechanisms: a position shift between the center locations of the receptive fields in the left and right eyes or a phase shift between the receptive field organization in the left and right eyes [6][7]. It appears that biological systems use a combination of these two mechanisms. In Section 2, we extend the concepts of position and phase tuning to the construction of motion energy neurons. We combine the Reichardt model and the motion energy model to obtain an architecture for constructing motion energy neurons whose tuning can be adjusted by the analogs of position and phase shifts. In Section 3, we investigate the functional advantages of position and phase shifts, inspired by a similar comparison from the disparity energy literature. We show that by simply comparing the outputs of pair of motion energy cells with combined position/phase shift tuning enables us to discriminate reliably between stimuli moving above and below a reference velocity. Finally, in Section 4, we place this work in the context of recent results on speed tuning in V1 neurons. 2 Extending Position/Phase Tuning to Motion Energy Models Figure 1(a) shows a 1D array of three Reichardt detectors[1] tuned to motion from left to right. Each detector computes the correlation between its photosensor input and the delayed input from the photosensor to the left. The delay could be implemented by a low pass filter. Usually, the correlation is assumed to be computed by a multiplication between the current and delayed signals. For consistency with the following discussion, we show the output as a summation followed by a squaring. Squaring the sum is essentially equivalent to the product, since the product could be recovered by subtracting the sum of the squared inputs from the squared sum (e.g. ( a + b ) 2 ? ( a 2 + b 2 ) = 2 ab ). Delbruck proposed a modification of the Reichardt detector (Figure 1(b)), which switches the order of the delay and the sum, resulting in a delay-line architecture [8]. The output of a detector is the sum of its photosensor input and the delayed output of the detector to the left. This recurrent connection extends the spatio-temporal receptive field of the detector, since the input from the secondnearest-neighboring photosensor to the left is now connected to the detector through two delays, whereas the Reichardt detector never sees the output of its second-nearest-neighboring photosensor. The velocity tuning of these detectors is determined by the combination of the temporal delay and the position shift between the neighboring detectors. As the delay increases, the tuned velocity decreases. As the position shift increases, the tuned velocity also increases. This position-tuning of velocity is reminiscent of the position-tuning of disparity energy neurons, where the larger the position shift between the spatial receptive fields being combined from the left and right eyes, the larger the disparity tuning [9]. Figure 1(c) shows a 1D array of three motion energy detectors[2][3]. At each spatial location, the outputs of the photosensors in a neighborhood around each spatial location are combined through even and odd symmetric linear spatial receptive fields, which are here modelled by spatial Gabor functions. In 1D, the even and odd symmetric Gabor receptive field profiles are the real and imaginary parts of the function ? x ? ? x ? 1 1 g s ( x ) = ----------------- exp ? ? --------? exp ( jx ? x ) = ----------------- exp ? ? --------? ( cos ( ? x x ) + j sin ( ? x x ) ) 2 2 2 2?? x 2 ? 2? x? 2?? x ? 2? x? (1) where ? x determines the preferred spatial frequency of the receptive field, and ? x determines its spatial extent. The even and odd spatial filter outputs are then combined through temporal filters to produce two outputs which are then squared and summed to produce the motion energy. In many cases, the temporal receptive field profiles are also Gabor functions. The combined spatial and temporal receptive fields of the two neurons are separable when considered as a single complex valued function: ? x ? ? t ? 1 1 g ( x, t ) = ----------------- exp ? ? --------? exp ( j ? x x ) ? ----------------- exp ? ? --------2-? exp ( j ? t t ) 2 2 2?? x ? 2? x? 2 2?? t ? 2? t? (2) where ? t and ? t determine the preferred temporal frequency and temporal extent of the temporal receptive fields. Strictly speaking, these spatio-temporal filters are not velocity tuned, since the velocity at which a moving sine-wave grating stimulus produces maximum response varies with the spatial frequency of the sine-wave grating. However, since spatial frequencies of ? x lead to the largest responses, the filter is sometimes thought of as having a preferred velocity v pref = ? ? t ? ? x . 2 2 2 ? ? (a) 2 2 2 ? ? (b) im 2 2 ? ? ? ? ? j? ae re 2 2 2 2 im re ? ae j? j? j? ae ae im a cos? im -a sin? a sin? re a cos? re (c) 2 2 ? ? j? ? 2 2 2 2 ? ? ? j? ae ae (d) Figure 1. (a) 1D array of three Reichardt detectors tuned to motion from left to right. The ? block represents a temporal delay. The semi-circles represent photosensors. (b) Delbruck delay-line detector. (c) 1D array of three motion energy detectors. The bottom blocks represent even and odd symmetric spatial receptive fields modelled by Gabor functions. (d) The proposed motion detector by combining the position and phase tuning mechanisms of (b) and (c). One problem with using spatio-temporal Gabor functions is that they are non-causal in time. In this work, we consider the use of a causal recurrently implemented temporal filter. If we let the real and imaginary parts of u(x, t) denote the even and odd spatial filter outputs, then the two temporal fil- ter outputs of the temporal filter are given by the real and imaginary parts of v(x, t) , which satisfies v ( x, t ) = a exp ( j ? t ) ? v ( x, t ? 1 ) + ( 1 ? a ) ? u ( x, t ) (3) where a < 1 and ? t are real valued constants. We derive this equation from Fig. 1(c) by considering the time delay ? as a unit sample discrete time delay. We consider discrete time operation here for consistency with our experimental results, however, a corresponding continuous time temporal filter can be obtained by replacing the time delay by a first order continuous-time recurrent filter with time constant ? . The frequency response of this complex-valued filter is V(? x, ? t) 1?a ---------------------= ------------------------------------------------------------U(? x, ? t) 1 ? a ? exp ( ? j ( ? t ? ? t ) ) (4) where ? x and ? t are spatial and temporal frequency variables. This function achieves unity maximum value at ? t = ? ? t , independently of ? x . Assuming the same Gabor spatial receptive field, the combined spatio-temporal receptive field can be approximated by the continuous function: ? x ? 1 g ( x, t ) = ----------------- exp ? ? --------? exp ( j ? x x ) ? ? ? 1 exp ( ? t ? ? ) exp ( j ? t t ) h(t) 2 2 2?? x ? 2? x? (5) where h(t) is the unit step function, and ? ? 1 ? ( 1 ? a ) . Again, strictly speaking, the filter is not velocity tuned, but for input sine-wave gratings with a spatial frequency near ? x , the composite spatio-temporal filter has a preferred velocity near v pref = ? ? t ? ? x . The velocity tuning of this filter is determined by the combination of the time delay and a phase shift ? t between the input u(x, t) and the output v(x, t ? 1) . The longer the time delay, the slower the preferred velocity. However, the larger the phase-shift, the higher the preferred velocity. This phase-tuning of velocity is reminiscent of the phase-tuning of disparity tuned neurons, where the larger the phase shift between the left and right receptive fields, the larger the preferred disparity. The possibility to adjust velocity tuning using two complementary mechanisms, suggests that it should be possible to combine these two methods, as observed in disparity neurons. Figure 1(d) shows how the position and phase tuning mechanisms of Figures 1(b) and 1(c) can be combined. The preferred velocity for spatial frequencies ? x will be determined by the sum of the preferred velocities determined by the position and phase-shift mechanisms, i.e. v pref = 1 ? ? t ? ? x , assuming a unit spatial displacement between adjacent photosensors. 3 Motion energy pairs for velocity discrimination Given the possibility of combining the position and phase tuning mechanisms, an interesting question is how these two mechanisms might be exploited when constructing populations of motion energy neurons. Velocity can be estimated using a population of neurons tuned to different spatiotemporal frequencies [10][11]. However, the output of a single motion energy neuron is an ambiguous indicator of velocity, since its output depends upon other stimulus dimensions in addition to motion, (e.g. orientation, contrast). Given the long history of position/phase shifts in disparity tuning, it is natural to start with an inspiration taken from the context of binocular vision. It has been shown that the responses from a population of phase-tuned disparity energy are more comparable than the responses from a population of position-tuned disparity energy neurons [12]. In particular, the preferred disparity of the neuron with maximum response in a population of phase tuned neurons is a more reliable indicator of the stimulus disparity than the preferred disparity of the neuron with maximum response in a population of position tuned neurons, especially for neurons with small phase shifts. The disadvantage of purely phase tuned neurons is that their preferred disparities can be tuned only over a limited range due to phase-wraparound in the sinusoidal modulation of the spatial Gabor. However, there is no restriction on the range of preferred disparities when using position shifts. Thus, it has been suggested that position shifts can be used to ?bias? the preferred disparity of a population around a rough estimate of the stimulus disparity, and then use a population of neurons tuned by phase shifts to obtain a more accurate estimation of the actual disparity. In this section, we demonstrate that a similar phenomenon holds for motion energy neurons. In particular, we show that we can use position shifts to place the tuned velocity (for a spatial frequency of ? x ) in a population of two neurons around a desired bias velocity, v bias , and then use phase shifts with equal magnitude but opposite sign to place the preferred velocities symmetrically around this bias velocity. We then show that by comparing the outputs of these two neurons, we can accurately discriminate between velocities above and below v bias . The equation describing the complex valued output of the spatio-temporal filtering stage w(x, t) for the detector shown in Figure 1(d) is w(x, t) = a exp ( j ? t ) ? w ( x ? 1, t ? 1 ) + ( 1 ? a ) ? u ( x, t ) (6) The frequency response is W ( ? x, ? t ) 1?a ------------------------ = -------------------------------------------------------------------------U(? x, ? t) 1 ? a ? exp ( ? j ( ? t + ? x ? ? t ) ) (7) and achieves its maximum along the line ? t = ? x + ? t , as seen in the contour plot of the spatiotemporal frequency response magnitude of the cascade of (1) and (7) in Fig. 2(a). In comparison, the spatio-temporal frequency response of the cascade of (1) and (4) shown in Fig. 2(e), achieves its maximum at ? t independently of ? x . For a moving sine wave grating input with spatial and temporal frequencies ? x and ? t , the steady state motion energy outputs will be proportional to the squared magnitudes of the spatio-temporal frequency response evaluated at ( ? x, ? t ) . Assume that we have two such motion cells with the same preferred spatial frequency ? x = 2? ? 20 but opposite temporal frequencies ? t = ? 2? ? 20 . The motion energy cell with positive ? t is tuned to fast velocities, while the motion energy cell with negative ? t is tuned to slow velocities. If we compare the frequency response magnitudes at frequency ( ? x, ? t ) , the boundary between the regions in the ? x ? ? t plane where the magnitude of one is larger than the other is a line passing thorough the origin with slope equal to 1, as shown in Fig. 2(c). This suggests that we can determine whether the velocity of the grating is faster or slower than 1 pixel per frame by checking the relative magnitude of the motion energy outputs, at least for sine-wave gratings. Although the sine-wave grating is a particularly simple input, this property is not shared by other pairs of motion energy neurons. For example, Fig. 2(f) shows the spatio-temporal frequency responses two motion energy neurons that have the same spatio-temporal center frequencies as considered above, but are constructed by phase tuning (the cascade of (1) and (4)). In this case, the boundary is a horizontal line. Thus, the velocity boundary depends upon the spatial frequency. For lower spatial frequencies, the relative magnitudes will switch at higher velocities. Another commonly considered arrangement of Gabor-filters is to place the center frequencies around a circle. For two neurons, this corresponds to displacing the two center frequencies by an equal amount perpendicularly to the line ? x = ? t (Fig. 2(k)). For motion energy filters built from non-causal Gabor filters, the spatio-temporal frequency responses exhibit perfect circular symmetry, and the decision boundary also coincides with the diagonal line ? x = ? t (see Figure 9 in [13]). However, non-causal filters are not physically realizable. If we consider motion energy neurons constructed from temporally causal functions (e.g. the cascade (1) and (4)), the boundary only matches the diagonal line in a small neighborhood of ? x = ? x , as shown in Fig. 2(i). We have characterized the performance of the three motion pairs on the fast/slow velocity discrimination task for a variety of inputs, including sine-wave gratings, square wave gratings, and drifting random dot stimuli with varying coherence. We first consider drifting sinusoidal gratings with spatial frequencies ? x ? [ 0, 2? ? 10 ] and velocities v input ? [ 0, 2 ] . For each spatial frequency and velocity, we compare the two motion energy 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 spatial frequency -1 0 -0.5 -1 1 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -1 1 0 -0.5 -1 1 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1 0 -0.4 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 0 -0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -1 0 -1 0 1 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 distance (h) 1.5 1 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -1 -1.5 0 (d) 0.5 -1.5 -0.2 distance (g) 1.5 -1.5 1 spatial frequency temporal frequency temporal frequency temporal frequency phase-tuned (orthogonal) 1 0 1 (f) 0.5 0 0 -1 1.5 spatial frequency (e) 1.5 -1 0 0.4 0.2 -1 -1.5 0.6 (c) 1.5 spatial frequency -1.5 0 -0.5 0.8 spatial frequency temporal frequency temporal frequency temporal frequency phase-tuned (vertical) 0.5 0 0.5 (b) 1 -1 1 1 1 spatial frequency (a) 1.5 -1.5 0 1.5 amplitude 0 1 amplitude -1 1.5 tuning curve amplitude 1 temporal frequency 1.5 -1.5 motion pair slow cell temporal frequency temporal frequency phase/position-tuned fast cell 0 -1 0 1 spatial frequency spatial frequency spatial frequency (i) (j) (k) -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 distance (l) Figure 2. Frequency response amplitudes of the motion pairs formed by types of motion cells. First row: Phase and position tuned motion cells. The center frequencies of the fast (a) and slow (b) cells are ( ? x, ? t ) = ( 0.314, 0.628 ) and ( 0.314, 0 ) respectively. Second row: Vertically displaced phase-tuned motion energy cells. The center frequencies of the fast (e) and slow (f) cells are ( 0.314, 0.628 ) and ( 0.314, 0 ) respectively. Third row: Orthogonally displaced phase-tuned motion energy cells. The center frequencies of the fast (i) and slow (j) cells are ( 0.092, 0.536 ) and ( 0.536, 0.092 ) respectively. The third column shows the contour plot of difference between the frequency response amplitudes of the fast cell from the slow cell. The dashed line shows the decision boundary at zero. The fourth column shows the cross sections of the frequency response amplitudes along the line connecting the two center frequencies (fast = solid, slow = dashed). Zero denotes the point on the line that crosses ? t = ? x . outputs at different phase shifts of the input grating, and calculate the percentage where the response of the fast cell is larger than that of the slow cell. Fig. 3(a)-(c) show the percentages as the grey scale value for each combination of input spatial frequency and velocity. Ideally, the top half should be white (i.e. the fast cell?s response is larger for all inputs whose velocity is greater than one), and the bottom half should be black. For the phase-shifted motion cells with unit positiontuned velocity bias, the responses are correct over a wide range of spatial frequencies. On the other hand, for the motion pairs with the same center frequencies but tuned by pure phase shifts (Fig. 3(c)), the velocity at which the relative responses switch decreases with spatial frequency. This is consistent with the horizontal decision boundary computed by comparing the frequency response magnitudes. For the phase-tuned motion-energy cells with orthogonally displaced center frequencies, the boundary rapidly diverges from the horizontal as the spatial frequency moves away from ? x . Fig. 3(d) shows the overall accuracy by combining the responses over all velocities. The detector utilizing the phase-tuned cells with position bias have the highest accuracy over the widest range of spatial frequencies. Fig. 3(e)-(h) show the responses of the motion pairs to square wave gratings. The results are similar to the case of sinusoidal gratings, except that the performance at low spatial frequencies is worse. phase-tuned (vertical) 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 0.5 velocity velocity 1 1 0.5 0.8 1 0.7 0.6 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.6 0 input spatial frequency 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.6 0 input spatial frequency 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0 0.6 input spatial frequency (b) 0.1 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 input spatial frequency (c) 2 (d) 0.5 1 accuracy 1 velocity velocity 1 velocity 1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.6 0 input spatial frequency 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.6 0 input spatial frequency (e) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0 0.6 input spatial frequency (f) 0.1 (g) 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 input spatial frequency (h) 1 velocity velocity velocity 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.9 accuracy square wave gratings 0.9 0.5 (a) drifting random dots average accuracy phase-tuned (orthogonal) 2 velocity sine wave gratings position/phase tuned 2 1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 coherence level (i) 1 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 coherence level (j) 1 0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 coherence level (k) 1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 coherence level (l) Figure 3. Performance on the velocity discrimination task for different stimuli. First row: sine wave gratings; second row: square wave gratings; third row: drifting random dots. The first three columns show the percentage of stimuli where the fast motion energy cell?s response is larger than the slow cell?s response. First column: motion cells with position-tuned velocity bias; second column: phase tuned motion cells with the same center frequencies; third column: phase-tuned motion cells with orthogonal offset. The fourth column shows the average accuracy over all input velocities. Solid line: motion cells with position-tuned velocity bias; dashed line: phase tuned motion cells with the same center frequencies; dash-dot line: phase-tuned motion cells with orthogonal offset. this is expected, since for low spatial frequencies, the square wave gratings have large constant intensity areas that convey no motion information. Fig. 3(i)-(l) show the responses for drifting random dot stimuli at different velocities and coherence levels. The dots were one pixel wide. The motion pair using the phase-shifted cells with position tuned bias velocity maintain a consistently higher accuracy over all coherence levels tested. 4 Discussion We described a new architecture for motion energy filters obtained by combining the position tuning mechanism of the Reichardt-like detectors and the phase tuning mechanism of motion energy detectors based on complex-valued spatio-temporal separable filters. Motivated by results with disparity energy neurons indicating that the responses of phase-tuned neurons with small phase shifts are more comparable, we have examined the ability of the proposed velocity detectors to discriminate between input stimuli above and below a fixed velocity. Our experimental and analytical results confirm that comparisons between pairs constructed by using a position shift to center the tuned velocities around the border and using phase shifts to offset the tuned velocity of the pair to opposite sides of the boundary is consistently better than previously proposed architectures that were based on pure phase tuning. Recent experimental evidence has cast doubt upon the belief that the motion neurons in V1 and MT have very distinct properties. Traditionally, the tuning of V1 motion sensitive neurons is thought to be separable along the spatial and temporal frequency dimensions, while the frequency tuning MT neurons is inseparable, consistent with constant speed tuning. However, it now seems that both V1 and MT neurons actually show a continuum in the degree to which preferred velocity changes with spatial frequency [14][15][16]. Our proposed neurons constructed by position and phase shifts also show an intermediate behavior between speed tuning and space-time separable tuning. With pure phase shifts, the tuning is space-time separable. With position shifts, the neurons become speed tuned. An intermediate tuning is obtained by combining position and phase tuning. Our results on a simple velocity discrimination task suggest a functional role for this intermediate level of tuning in creating motion energy pairs whose relative responses truly indicate changes in velocity around a reference level for stimuli with a broad band of spatial frequency content. Pair-wise comparisons have been previously proposed as a potential method for coding image speed [17][18]. Here, we have demonstrated a systematic way of constructing reliably comparable pairs of neurons using simple neurally plausible circuits. Acknowledgements This work was supported in part by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council under Grant HKUST6300/04E. 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Heterogeneous Component Analysis 3,2 ? Shigeyuki Oba1 , Motoaki Kawanabe2 , Klaus Robert Muller , and Shin Ishii4,1 1. Graduate School of Information Science, Nara Institute of Science and Technology, Japan 2. Fraunhofer FIRST.IDA, Germany 3. Department of Computer Science, Technical University Berlin, Germany 4. Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Japan [email protected] Abstract In bioinformatics it is often desirable to combine data from various measurement sources and thus structured feature vectors are to be analyzed that possess different intrinsic blocking characteristics (e.g., different patterns of missing values, observation noise levels, effective intrinsic dimensionalities). We propose a new machine learning tool, heterogeneous component analysis (HCA), for feature extraction in order to better understand the factors that underlie such complex structured heterogeneous data. HCA is a linear block-wise sparse Bayesian PCA based not only on a probabilistic model with block-wise residual variance terms but also on a Bayesian treatment of a block-wise sparse factor-loading matrix. We study various algorithms that implement our HCA concept extracting sparse heterogeneous structure by obtaining common components for the blocks and specific components within each block. Simulations on toy and bioinformatics data underline the usefulness of the proposed structured matrix factorization concept. 1 Introduction Microarray and other high-throughput measurement devices have been applied to examine specimens such as cancer tissues of biological and/or clinical interest. The next step is to go towards combinatorial studies in which tissues measured by two or more of such devices are simultaneously analyzed. However, such combinatorial studies inevitably suffer from differences in experimental conditions, or, even more complex, from different measurement technologies. Also, when concatenating a data set from different measurement sources, we often observe systematic missing parts in a dataset (e.g., Fig 3A). Moreover, the noise levels may vary among different experiments. All these induce a heterogeneous structure in data, that needs to be treated appropriately. Our work will contribute exactly to this topic, by proposing a Bayesian method for feature subspace extraction, called heterogeneous component analysis (HCA, sections 2 and 3). HCA performs a linear feature extraction based on matrix factorization in order to obtain a sparse and structured representation. After relating to previous methods (section 4), HCA is applied to toy data and more interestingly to neuroblastoma data from different measurement techniques (section 5). We obtain interesting factors that may be a first step towards better biological model building. 2 Formulation of the HCA problem Let a matrix Y = {yij }i=1:M,j=1:N denote a set of N observations of M -dimensional feature vectors, where yij ? R is the j-th observation of the i-th feature. In a heterogeneous situation, we assume the M -dimensional feature vector is decomposed into L disjoint blocks. Let I (l) denote a ? set of feature indices included in the l-th block, so that I (1) ? ? ? ? ? I (L) = I and I (l) ? I (l ) = ? for l 6= l? . Figure 1: An illustration of a typical dataset and the result by the HCA. The observation matrix Y consists of multiple samples j = 1, . . . , N with high-dimensional features i ? I. The features consist of multiple blocks, in this case I (1) ? I (2) ? I (3) = I. There are many missing observations whose distribution is highly structural depending on each block. HCA optimally factorizes the matrix Y so that the factor-loading matrix U has structural sparseness; it includes some regions of zero elements according to the block structure of the observed data. Each factor may or may not affect all the features within a block, but each block does not necessarily affect all the factors. Therefore, the rank of each factor-loading sub-matrix for each block (or any set of blocks) can be different from the others. The resulting block-wise sparse matrix reflects a characteristic heterogeneity of features over blocks. We assume that the matrix Y ? RM ?N is a noisy observation of a matrix of true values X ? RM ?N whose rank is K(< min(M, N )) and has a factorized form: Y = X + E, X = U V T , M ?N M ?K (1) N ?K where E ? R ,U ?R , and V ? R are matrices of residuals, factor-loadings, and factors, respectively. The superscript T denotes the matrix transpose. There may be missing or unmeasured observations denoted by a matrix W ? {0, 1}M ?N , which indicates observation yij is missing if wij = 0 or exists otherwise (wij = 1). Figure 1 illustrates the concept of HCA. In this example, the observed data matrix (left panel) is made up by three blocks of features. They have block-wise variation in effective dimensionalities, missing rates, observation noise levels, and so on, which we overall call heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity affects the effective rank of the observation sub-matrix corresponding to each block, and hence leads naturally to different ranks of factor-loading sub-matrix between blocks. In addition, there can exist block-wise patterns of missing values (shadowed rectangular regions in the left panel); such a situation would occur, for example in bioinformatics, when some particular genes have been measured in one assay (constituting a block) but not in another assay (constituting another block). To better understand the objective data based on the feature extraction by matrix factorization, we assume a block-wise sparse factor-loading matrix U (right panel in Fig.1). Namely, the effective rank of an observation sub-matrix corresponding to a block is reflected by the number of non-zero components in the corresponding rows of U . Assuming such a block-wise sparse structure can decrease the model?s effective complexity, and will describe the data better and therefore lead to better generalization ability, e.g., for missing value prediction. 3 A probabilistic model for HCA PK Model For each element of the residual matrix, eij ? yij ? k=1 uik vjk , we assume a Gaussian distribution with a common variance ?l2 for every feature i in the same block I (l) : 1 ?2 2 1 1 2 2 ln p(eij |?l(i) ) = ? ?l(i) eij ? ln ?l(i) ? ln 2?, 2 2 2 (2) where l(i) denotes the pre-determined block index to which the i-th feature belongs. For a factor matrix V , we assume a Gaussian prior:  K  N X X 1 2 ln p(V ) = ? vjk ? ln 2? . (3) 2 j=1 k=1 The above two assumptions are exactly the same as those for probabilistic PCA that is a special case of HCA with a single active block. Another special case where each block contains only one active feature is probabilistic factor analysis (FA). Namely, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation based on the following log-likelihood includes both the PCA and the FA as special settings of the blocks.   1X  1X ?2 2 2 2 ln p(Y , V |U , ? 2 ) = wij ??l(i) eij ? ln ?l(i) ? ln 2? + ?vjk ? ln 2? . (4) 2 ij 2 jk 2 (?l2 )P l=1,...,L ? = summation ij is a vector of variances of all blocks. Since wij = 0 iff yij is missing, the is actually taken for all observed values in Y . Another character of the HCA model is the block-wise sparse factor-loading matrix, which is implemented by a prior for U , given by  X  1 1 (5) ln p(U |T ) = tik ? u2ik ? ln 2? , 2 2 ik where T = {tik } is a block-wise mask matrix which defines the block-wise-sparse structure; if tik = 0, then uik = 0 with probability 1. Each column vector of the mask matrix takes one of the possible block-wise mask patterns; a binary pattern vector whose dimensionality is the same as the factor-loading vector, and whose values are consistent, either 0 or 1, within each block. When there are L blocks, each column vector of T can take one of 2L possible patterns including the zero vector, and hence, the matrix T with K columns can take one of 2LK possible patterns. Parameter estimation We estimated the model parameters U and V by maximum a posteriori def (MAP) estimation, and ? by ML estimation; that is, the log-joint: L = log P (Y , U , V |?, T ) was maximized w.r.t. U , V and ?. Maximization of the log-joint L w.r.t U , V , and ? was performed by the conjugate gradient algorithm that was available in the NETLAB toolbox [1]. The stationary condition w.r.t. the variance, ?L ?(? 2 ) = 0, was solved as a closed form of U and V : def ? ?l2 (U , V ) = mean(i,j|l) [e2ij ], (6) where mean(i,j|l) [.] is the average over all pairs (i, j) not missing in the l-th block. By redefining the objective function with the closed form solution plugged in: ? , V ) def ? 2 (U , V )), L(U = L(U , V , ? (7) the conjugate gradient of L? w.r.t. U and V led to faster and more stable optimization than the naive maximization of L w.r.t. U , V , and ? 2 . ModelR selection The mask matrix T was determined by maximization of the log-marginal likelihood LdU dV which was calculated by Laplace approximation around the MAP estimator: 1 def E(T ) = L ? lndetH, 2 def where H = ?2 L ???? T (8) is the Hessian of log-joint w.r.t. all elements (?) in the parameters U and V . The log Hessian term, lndetH, which works as a penalty term for maintaining non-zero elements in the factor-loading matrix, was simplified in order for tractable calculation. Namely, independence in the log-joint was assumed: ?2L ?2L ?2L ? 0, ? 0, and ? 0, ?uik vjk? ?uik uik? ?vjk vjk? (9) which enabled a similar tractable computation to variational Bayes (VB) and was expected to produce satisfactory results. To avoid searching through an exponentially large number of possibilities, we implemented a greedy search that optimizes each of the column vectors in a step-wise manner, called HCA-greedy algorithm. In each step of the HCA-greedy algorithm, factor-loading and factor vectors are estimated based on 2L possible settings of block-wise mask vectors, and we accept the one achieving the maximum log-marginal. It terminated if zero vector is accepted as the best mask vector. HCA with ARD The greedy search still searches 2L possibilities per a factor, whose computation increases exponentially as the number of blocks L increases. The automatic relevance determination (ARD) is a hierarchical Bayesian approach for selecting relevant bases, which has been applied to component analyzers since its first introduction to Bayesian PCA (BPCA) [2]. The prior for U is given by ( ) L K  1 XX X 2 ln p(U |?) = ??lk uik + ln ?lk ? ln 2? , 2 l=1 k=1 (10) i?Il where ?lk is an ARD hyper-parameter for the l-th block of the k-th column of U . ? is a vector of all elements of ?lk , l = 1, . . . , L, k = 1, . . . , K. With this prior, the log-joint probability density function becomes   1X  1X ?2 2 2 2 wij ??l(i) eij ? ln ?l(i) ? ln 2? + ?vjk ? ln 2? ln p(Y , U , V |? 2 , ?) = 2 ij 2 jk  1X + ??l(i)k u2ik + ln ?l(i)k ? ln 2? . 2 (11) ik According to this ARD approach, ? is updated by the conjugate gradient-based optimization simultaneously with U and V . In each step of the optimization, ? was updated until the stationary condition of log-marginal w.r.t. ? approximately held. In HCA with ARD, called HCA-ARD, the initial values of U and V were obtained by SVD. We also examined an ARD-based procedure with another initial value setting, i.e., starting from the result obtained by HCA-greedy, which is signified by HCA-g+ARD. 4 Related work In this work, the ideas from both probabilistic modeling of linear component analyzers and sparse matrix factorization frameworks are combined into an analytical tool for data with underlying heterogeneous structures. The weighted low-rank matrix factorization (WLRMF) [3] has been proposed as a minimization problem of the weighted error: X X min = wij (yij ? uik vjk )2 , (12) U ,V i,j k where wij is a weight for the element yij of the observation matrix Y . The weight value is set as wij = 0 if the corresponding yij is missing or wij > 0 otherwise. This objective function is equivalent to the (negative) log-likelihood of a probabilistic generative model based on an assumption that each element of the residual matrix obeys a Gaussian distribution with variance 1/wij . The WLRMF objective function is equivalent to our log-likelihood function (4) if the weight is set at P estimated inverse noise variance for each (i, j)-th element. Although the prior term, 2 ln p(V ) = ? 12 jk vjk + const., has been added to eq. (4), it just imposes a constraint on the linear indeterminacy between U and V , and hence the resultant low-rank matrix U V T is identical to that by WLRMF. Bayesian PCA [2] is also a matrix factorization procedure, which includes a characteristic prior P density of factor-loading vectors, ln p(U |?) = ? 21 ik ?k u2ik + const.. It is an equivalent prior for (A) Missing pattern (B) True (C) factor loading (D) SVD WLRMF (I) 1 50 50 50 100 100 100 100 150 150 150 150 (E) 50 100 BPCA (F) 2468 10 HCA-greedy (G) HCA-ARD 2468 20 (H) HCA-g+ARD 50 50 50 50 100 100 100 100 150 150 150 150 2468 10 20 2468 0.9 NRMSE 50 SVD WLRMF BPCA HCA-greedy HCA-ARD HCA-g+ARD 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0 5 10 K 15 20 2468 Figure 2: Experimental results when applied to an artificial data matrix. (A) Missing pattern of the observation matrix. Vertical and horizontal axes correspond to row (typically, genes) and column (typically, samples) of the matrix (typically, gene expression matrix). Red cells signify missing elements. (B) True factor-loading matrix. Horizontal axis denotes factors. Color and its intensity denote element values and white cells denote zero elements. Panels from (C) to (H) show the factor-loading matrices estimated by SVD, WLRMF, BPCA, HCA-greedy, HCA-ARD, and HCAg+ARD, respectively. The vertical line in panel (F) denotes the automatically determined number of components. Panel (I) shows missing value prediction performance obtained by the three HCA algorithms and other methods. The vertical and horizontal axes denote normalized root mean square of test errors and dimensionalities of factors, respectively. HCA-ARD (eq. (10)) if we assume only a single block. Although this prior term obviously a simple L2 norm in the WLRMF, it also includes hyper parameter ? which constitute different regularization term and it leads to automatic model (intrinsic dimensionality) selection when ? is determined by evidence criterion. Component analyzers with sparse factor-loadings have recently been investigated as sparse PCA (SPCA). In a well established context of SPCA studies (e.g. [4]), the tradeoff problem is solved between the understandability (sparsity of factor-loadings) and the reproducibility of the covariance matrix from the sparsified factor-loadings. In our HCA, the block-wise sparse factor-loading matrix is useful not only for understandability but also for generalization ability. The latter merit comes from the assumption that the observation includes uncertainty due to a small sample size, large noises, and missing observations, which have not been considered sufficiently in SPCA. 5 Experiments Experiment 1: an artificial dataset We prepared an artificial data set with an underlying block structure. For this we generated a 170 ? 9 factor-loading matrix U that included a pre-determined block structure (white vs. colored in Fig. 2(B)), and a 100 ? 9 factor matrix V by applying orthogonalization to the factors sampled from a standard Gaussian distribution. The observation matrix Y was produced by U V T + E, where each element of E was generated from a standard Gaussian. Then, missing values were artificially introduced according to the pre-determined block structure (Fig. 2(A)). ? Block 1 consisted of 20 features with randomly selected 10 % missing entries. ? Block 2 consisted of 50 features whose 50% columns were completely missing and the remaining columns contained randomly selected 50% missing entries. ? Block 3 consisted of 100 features whose 20% columns were completely missing and the remaining columns contained randomly selected 20% missing entries. We applied three HCA algorithms: HCA-greedy, HCA-ARD, and HCA-g+ARD, and three existing matrix factorization algorithms: SVD, WLRMF and BPCA. SVD SVD calculated for a matrix whose missing values are imputed to zeros. WLRMF[3] The weights were set 1 for the value-existing entries or 0 for the missing entries. BPCA WLRMF with an ARD prior, called here BPCA, which is equivalent to HCA-ARD except that all features are in a single active block (i.e., colored in Fig. 2(B)). We confirmed this method exhibited almost the same performance as VB-EM-based algorithm [5]. The generalization ability was evaluated on the basis of the estimation performance for artificially introduced missing values. The estimated factor-loading matrices and missing value estimation accuracies are shown in Figure 2. Factor-loading matrices based on WLRMF and BPCA were obviously almost the same with that by SVD, because these three methods did not assume any sparsity in the factor-loading matrix. The HCA-greedy algorithm terminated at K = 10. The factor-loading matrix estimated by HCAgreedy showed an identical sparse structure to the one consisting of the top five factors in the true factor-loadings. The sixth factor in the second block was not extracted, possibly because the second block lacked information due to the large rate of missing values. This algorithm also happened to extract one factor not included in the original factor-loadings, as the tenth one in the first block. Although the HCA-ARD and HCA-g+ARD algorithms extracted good ones as the top three and four factors, respectively, they failed to completely reconstruct the sparsity structure in other factors. As shown in panel (I), however, such a poorly extracted structure did not increase the generalization error, implying that the essential structure underlying the data was extracted well by the three HCAbased algorithms. def Reconstruction of missing values was evaluated by normalized root mean square errors: NRMSE = p mean[(y ? y?)2 ]/var[y], where y and y? denote true and estimated values, respectively, the mean is the average over all the missing entries and the variance is for all entries of the matrix. Figure 2(I) shows the generalization ability of missing value predictions. SVD and WLRMF, which incurred no penalty on extracting a large number of factors, exhibited the best results around K = 9, but got worse with the increase in the number of K due to over-fitting. HCA-g+ARD showed the best performance at K = 9, which was better than that obtained by all the other methods. HCAgreedy, HCA-ARD, and BPCA exhibited comparative performance at K = 9. At K = 2, . . . , 8, the HCA algorithms performed better than BPCA. Namely, the sparse structure in the factor-loadings tended to achieve better performance. HCA-ARD performed less effectively than the other two HCA algorithms at K > 13, because of convergence to local solutions. This reason is supported by the fact that HCA-g+ARD employing good initialization by HCA-greedy exhibited the best performance among all the HCA algorithms. Accordingly, HCA showed a better generalization ability with a smaller number of effective parameters than the existing methods. (A) Missing entries (B) Factor loading (HCA-greedy) (C) Factor loading (WLRMF) array CGH 1000 1000 2000 2000 Microarray 1 Microarray 2 100 200 Samples 300 2448 5 10 Factors 15 20 2448 5 10 Factors 15 20 Figure 3: Analysis of an NBL dataset. Vertical axes denote high-dimensional features. Features measured by array CGH technology are sorted in the chromosomal order. Microarray features are sorted by correlations to sample?s prognosis, dead or alive at the end of clinical followup. (A) Missing pattern in the NBL dataset. White and red colors denote observed and missing entries in the data matrix, respectively. (B) and (C) Factor-loading matrices estimated by the HCA-greedy and WLRMF algorithms, respectively. Experiment 2: a cross-analysis of neuroblastoma data We next applied our HCA to a neuroblastoma (NBL) dataset consisting of three data blocks taken by three kinds of high-throughput genomic measurement technologies. Array CGH Chromosomal changes of 2340 DNA segments (using 2340 probes) were measured for each of 230 NBL tumors, by using the array comparative genomic hybridization (array CGH) technology. Data for 1000 probes were arbitrarily selected from the whole dataset. Microarray 1 Expression levels of 5340 genes were measured for 136 tumors from NBL patients. We selected 1000 genes showing the largest variance over the 136 tumors. Microarray 2 Gene expression levels in 25 out of 136 tumors were also measured by a small-sized microarray technology harboring 448 probes. The dataset Microarray 1 was the same one as used in the previous study [6], and the other two datasets, array CGH and Microarray 2, were also provided by the same research group for this study. As seen in Figure 3(A), the set of measured samples was quite different in the three experiments, leading to apparent block-wise missing observations. We normalized the data matrix so that the block-wise variances become unity. We further added 10% missing entries randomly into the observed entries in order to evaluate missing value prediction performance. When HCA-greedy was applied to this dataset, it terminated at K = 23, but we continued to obtain further factors until K = 80. Figure 3(B) shows the factor-loading matrix from K = 0 to 23. HCA-greedy extracted one factor showing the relationship between the three measurement devices and three factors between aCGH and Microarray 1. The other factors accounted for either of aCGH or Microarray 1. The first factor was strongly correlated with patient?s prognosis as clearly shown by the color code in the parts of Microarrays 1 and 2. Note that the features in these two datasets are aligned by correlations to the prognosis. This suggests that the dataset Microarray 2 did not include factors other than the first one as those strongly related to the prognosis. On the other hand, WLRMF extracted the identical first factor to HCA-greedy, but extracted much more factors concerning Microarray 2, all of which may not be trustworthy because the number of samples observed in Microarray 2 was as small as 25. (B) SVD BPCA WLRMF HCA-greedy HCA-ARD HCA-g+ARD Training NRMSE 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Test NRMSE 0.9 (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Test NRMSE (A) 0.7 0.6 0.5 20 40 K 60 80 0 0.7 0.6 0.5 20 40 K 60 80 0 0.5 1 1.5 Num.NonZeroElements 2 5 x 10 Figure 4: Missing value prediction performance by the six algorithms. Vertical axis denotes normalized root mean square of training errors (A) or test errors (B and C). Horizontal axis denotes the number of factors (A and B) or the number of non-zero elements in the factor-loading matrices (C). Each curve corresponds to one of the six algorithms. We also applied SVD, WLRMF, BPCA and other two HCA algorithms to the NBL dataset. For WLRMF, BPCA, HCA-ARD, and HCA-g+ARD, the initial numbers of factors were set at K = 5, 10, 20, . . . , 70, and 80. Missing value prediction performance in terms of NRMSE was obtained as a measurement value of generalization performance. Note that the original data matrix included many missing values, but we evaluated the performance by using artificially introduced missing values. Figure 4 shows the results. Training errors almost monotonically decreased as the number of factors increased (Fig. 4A), indicating the stability of the algorithms. The only exception was HCA-ARD whose error increased from K = 30 to K = 40; this was due to local solution, because HCA-g+ARD employing the same algorithm but starting from different initialization showed consistent improvements in its performance. Test errors did not show monotonic profiles except that HCA-greedy exhibited monotonically better results for larger K values (Fig. 4B and C). SVD and WLRMF exhibited the best performance at K = 22 and K = 60, respectively, and got worse as the number of factors increased due to over-fitting. Overall, the variants of our new HCA concept have shown good generalization performance as measured on missing values, much similar to existing methods like WLRMF. We would like to emphasize, however, that HCA yields a clearer factor structure that is easier interpretable from the biological point of view. 6 Conclusion Complex structured data are ubiquitous in practice. For instance, when we should integrate data derived from different measurement devices, it becomes critically important to combine the information in each single source optimally ? otherwise no gain can be achieved beyond the individual analyses. Our Bayesian HCA model allows to take into account such structured feature vectors that possess different intrinsic blocking characteristics. The new probabilistic structured matrix factorization framework was applied to toy data and to neuroblastoma data collected by multiple high-throughput measurement devices which had block-wise missing structures due to different experimental designs. HCA achieved a block-wise sparse factor-loading matrix, representing the information amount contained in each block of the dataset simultaneously. While HCA provided a better or similar missing value prediction performance than existing methods such as BPCA or WLRMF, the heterogeneous structure underlying the problem was clearly captured much better. Furthermore the HCA factors derived are an interesting representation that may ultimately lead to a better modeling of the neuroblastoma data (see section 5). In the current HCA implementation, block structures were assumed to be known, as for the neuroblastoma data. Future work will go into a fully automatic estimate of structure from measured multi-modal data and the respective model selection techniques to achieve this goal. Clearly there is an increasing need for methods that are able to reliably extract factors from multimodal structured data with heterogeneous features. Our future effort will therefore strive towards applications beyond bioinformatics and to design novel structured spatio-temporal decomposition methods in applications like electroencephalography (EEG), image and audio analyses. Acknowledgement This work was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) No. 19710172 from MEXT Japan. References [1] I. Nabney and Christopher Bishop. Netlab: Netlab neural network software. http://www.ncrg.aston.ac.uk/netlab/, 1995. [2] C.M. Bishop. Bayesian PCA. In Proceedings of 11th conference on Advances in neural information processing systems, pages 382?388. MIT Press Cambridge, MA, USA, 1999. [3] N. Srebro and T. Jaakkola. Weighted low rank matrix approximations. In Proceedings of 20th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 720?727, 2003. [4] A. d?Aspremont, F. R. Bach, and L. El Ghaoui. Full regularization path for sparse principal component analysis. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2007. [5] S. Oba, M. Sato, I. Takemasa, M. Monden, K. Matsubara, and S. Ishii. A Bayesian missing value estimation method for gene expression profile data. Bioinformatics, 19(16):2088?2096, 2003. [6] M. Ohira, S. Oba, Y. Nakamura, E. Isogai, S. Kaneko, A. Nakagawa, T. Hirata, H. Kubo, T. Goto, S. Yamada, Y. Yoshida, M. Fuchioka, S. Ishii, and A. Nakagawara. Expression profiling using a tumor-specific cDNA microarray predicts the prognosis of intermediate risk neuroblastomas. Cancer Cell, 7(4):337?350, Apr 2005.
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Discovering Weakly-Interacting Factors in a Complex Stochastic Process Charlie Frogner School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] Avi Pfeffer School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] Abstract Dynamic Bayesian networks are structured representations of stochastic processes. Despite their structure, exact inference in DBNs is generally intractable. One approach to approximate inference involves grouping the variables in the process into smaller factors and keeping independent beliefs over these factors. In this paper we present several techniques for decomposing a dynamic Bayesian network automatically to enable factored inference. We examine a number of features of a DBN that capture different types of dependencies that will cause error in factored inference. An empirical comparison shows that the most useful of these is a heuristic that estimates the mutual information introduced between factors by one step of belief propagation. In addition to features computed over entire factors, for efficiency we explored scores computed over pairs of variables. We present search methods that use these features, pairwise and not, to find a factorization, and we compare their results on several datasets. Automatic factorization extends the applicability of factored inference to large, complex models that are undesirable to factor by hand. Moreover, tests on real DBNs show that automatic factorization can achieve significantly lower error in some cases. 1 Introduction Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are graphical model representations of discrete-time stochastic processes. DBNs generalize hidden Markov models and are used for modeling a wide range of dynamic processes, including gene expression [1] and speech recognition [2]. Although a DBN represents the process?s transition model in a structured way, all variables in the model might become jointly dependent over the course of the process and so exact inference in a DBN usually requires tracking the full joint probability distribution over all variables; it is generally intractable. Factored inference approximates this joint distribution over all variables as the product of smaller distributions over groups of variables (factors) and in this way enables tractable inference for large, complex models. Inference algorithms based on this idea include Boyen-Koller [3], the Factored Frontier [4] and Factored Particle Filtering [5]. Factored inference has generally been demonstrated for models that are factored by hand. In this paper we will show that it is possible algorithmically to select a good factorization, thus not only extending the applicability of factored inference to larger models, for which it might be undesireable manually to choose a factorization, but also allowing for better (and sometimes ?non-obvious?) factorizations. The quality of a factorization is defined by the amount of error incurred by repeatedly discarding the dependencies between factors and treating them as independent during inference. As such we formulate the goal of our algorithm as the minimization over factorizations of an objective that describes the error we expect due to this type of approximation. For this purpose we have examined a range of features that can be computed from the specification of the DBN, based both on 1 the underlying graph structure and on two essential conceptions of weak interaction between factors: the degree of separability [6] and mutual information. For each principle we investigated a number of heuristics. We find that the mutual information between factors that is introduced by one step of belief state propagation is especially well-suited to the problem of finding a good factorization. Complexity is an issue in searching for good factors, as the search space is large and the scoring heuristics themselves are computationally intensive. We compare several search methods for finding factors that allow for different tradeoffs between the efficiency and the quality of the factorization. The fastest is a graph partitioning algorithm in which we find a k-way partition of a weighted graph with edge-weights being pairwise scores between variables. Agglomerative clustering and local search methods use the higher-order scores computed between whole factors, and are hence slower while finding better factorizations. The more expensive of these methods are most useful when run offline, for example when the DBN is to be used for online inference and one cares about finding a good factorization ahead of time. We additionally give empirical results on two other real DBN models as well as randomly-generated models. Our results show that dynamic Bayesian networks can be decomposed efficiently and automatically, enabling wider applicability of factored inference. Furthermore, tests on real DBNs show that using automatically found factors can in some cases yield significantly lower error than using factors found by hand. 2 Background A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), [7] [8], represents a dynamic system consisting of some set of variables that co-evolve in discrete timesteps. In this paper we are dealing with discrete variables. We denote the set of variables in the system by X, with the canonical variables being those that directly influence at least one variable in the next timestep. We call the probability distribution over the possible states of the system at a given timestep the belief state. The DBN gives us the probabilities of transitioning from any given system state at t to any other system state at time t + 1, and it does so in a factored way: the probability that a variable takes on a given state at t + 1 depends only on the states of a subset of the variables in the system at t. We can hence represent this transition model as a Bayesian network containing the variables in X at timestep t, denoted Xt , and the variables in X at timestep t + 1, say Xt+1 ? this is called a 2-TBN (for two-timeslice Bayesian network). By inferring the belief state over Xt+1 from that over Xt , and conditioning on observations, we propagate the belief state through the system dynamics to the next timestep. The specification of a DBN also includes a prior belief state at time t = 0. Note that, although each variable at t + 1 may only depend on a small subset of the variables at t, its state might be correlated implicitly with the state of any variable in the system, as the influence of any variable might propagate through intervening variables over multiple timesteps. As a result, the whole belief state over X (at a given timestep) in general is not factored. Boyen and Koller, [3], find that, despite this fact, we can factor the system into components whose belief states are kept independently, and the error incurred by doing so remains bounded over the course of the process. The BK algorithm hence approximates the belief state at a given timestep as the product of the local belief states for the factors (their marginal distributions), and does exact inference to propagate this approximate belief state to the next timestep. Both the Factored Frontier, [4], and Factored Particle, [5], algorithms also rely on this idea of a factored belief state representation. In [9] and [6], Pfeffer introduced conditions under which a single variable?s (or factor?s) marginal distribution will be propagated accurately through belief state propagation, in the BK algorithm. The degree of separability is a property of a conditional probability distribution that describes the degree to which that distribution can be decomposed as the sum of simpler conditional distributions, each of which depends on only a subset of the conditioning variables. For example, let p(Z|XY ) give the probability distribution for Z given X and Y . If p(Z|XY ) is separable in terms of X and Y to a degree ?, this means that we can write p(Z|XY ) = ?[?pX (Z|X) + (1 ? ?)pY (Z|Y )] + (1 ? ?)pXY (Z|XY ) (1) for some conditional probability distributions pX (Z|X), pX (Z|Y ), and pXY (Z|XY ) and some parameter ?. We will say that the degree of separability is the maximum ? such that there exist pX (Z|X), pX (Z|Y ), and pXY (Z|XY ) and ? that satisfy (1). [9] and [6] have shown that if a system is highly separable then the BK algorithm produces low error in the components? marginal distributions. 2 Previous work has explored bounds on the error encountered by the BK algorithm. [3] showed that the error over the course of a process is bounded with respect to the error incurred by repeatedly projecting the exact distribution onto the factors as well as the mixing rate of the system, which can be thought of as the rate at which the stochasticity of the system causes old errors to be forgotten. [10] analyzed the error introduced between the exact distribution and the factored distribution by just one step of belief propagation. The authors noted that this error can be decomposed as the sum of conditional mutual information terms between variables in different factors and showed that each such term is bounded with respect to the mixing rate of the subsystem comprising the variables in that term. Computing the value of this error decomposition, unfortunately, requires one to examine a distribution over all of the variables in the model, which can be intractable. Along with other heuristics, we examined two approaches to automatic factorization that seek directly to exploit the above results, labeled in-degree and out-degree in Table 1. 3 Automatic factorization with pairwise scores We first investigated a collection of features, computable from the specification of the DBN, that capture different types of pairwise dependencies between variables. These features are based both on the 2-TBN graph structure and on two conceptions of interaction: the degree of separability and mutual information. These methods allow us to factorize a DBN without computing expensive whole-factor scores. 3.1 Algorithm: Recursive min-cut We use the following algorithm to find a factorization using only scores between pairs of variables. We build an undirected graph over the canonical variables in the DBN, weighting each edge between two variables with their pairwise score. An obvious algorithm for finding a partition that minimizes pairwise interactions between variables in different factors would be to compute a k-way min-cut, taking, say, the best-scoring such partition in which all factors are below a size limit. Unfortunately, on larger models this approach underperforms, yielding many partitions of size one. Instead we find that a good factorization can be achieved by computing a recursive min-cut, recurring until all factors are smaller than the pre-defined maximum size. We begin with all variables in a single factor. As long as there exists a factor whose weight is larger than the maximum, we do the following. For each factor that is too large, we search over the number of smaller factors, k, into which to divide the large factor, for each k computing the k-way min-cut factorization of the variables in the large factor. In our experiments we use a spectral graph partitioning algorithm, [11], e.g. We choose the k that minimizes the overall sum of between-factor scores. This is repeated until all factors are of sizes less than the maximum. This min-cut approach is designed only to use scores computed between pairs of variables, and so it sacrifices optimality for significant speed gains. 3.2 Pairwise scores Graph structure As a baseline in terms of speed and simplicity, we first investigated three types of pairwise graph relationships between variables that are indicative of different types of dependency. ? Children of common parents. Suppose that two variables at time t + 1, Xt+1 and Yt+1 , depend on some common parents Zt . As X and Y share a common, direct influence, we might expect them to to become correlated over the course of the process. The score between X and Y is the number of parents they share in the 2-TBN. ? Parents of common children. Suppose that Xt and Yt jointly influence common children Zt+1 . Then we might care more about any correlations between X and Y , because they jointly influence Z. If X and Y are placed in separate factors, then the accuracy of Z?s marginal distribution will depend on how correlated X and Y were. Here the score between X and Y is the number of children they share in the 2-TBN. ? Parent to child. If Yt+1 directly depends on Xt , or Xt+1 on Yt , then we expect them to be correlated. The score between X and Y is the number of edges between them in the 2-TBN. 3 Degree of separability The degree of separability for a given factor?s conditional distribution in terms of the other factors gives a measure of how accurately the belief state for that factor will be propagated via that conditional distribution to the next timestep, in BK inference. When a factor?s conditional distribution is highly separable in terms of the other factors, ignored dependencies between the other factors lead to relatively small errors in that factor?s marginal belief state after propagation. We can hence use the degree of separability as an objective to be maximized: we want to find the factorization that yields the highest degree of separability for each factor?s conditional distribution. Computing the degree of separability is a constrained optimization problem, and [12] gives an approximate method of solution. For distributions over many variables the degree of separability is quite expensive to compute, as the number of variables in the optimization grows exponentially with the number of discrete variables in the input conditional distribution. Computing the degree of separability for a small distribution is, however, reasonably efficient. In adapting the degree of separability to a pairwise score for the min-cut algorithm, we took two approaches. ? Separability of the pair?s joint conditional distribution: We assign a score to the pair of canonical variables X and Y equal to the degree of separability for the joint conditional distribution p(Xt+1 Yt+1 |P arents(Xt+1 ) ? P arents(Yt+1 )). We want to maximize this value for variables that are joined in a factor, as a high degree of separability implies that the error of the factor marginal distribution after propagation in BK will be low. Note that the degree of separability is defined in terms of groups of parent variables. If we have, for example, p(Z|W XY ), then this distribution might be highly separable in terms of the groups XY and W , but not in terms of W X and Y . If, however, p(Z|W XY ) is highly separable in terms of W , X and Y grouped separately, then it is at least as separable in terms of any other groupings. We compute the degree of separability for the above joint conditional distribution in terms of the parents taken separately. ? Non-separability between parents of a common child: If two parents are highly non-separable in a common child?s conditional distribution, then the child?s marginal distribution can be rendered inaccurate by placing these two parents in different components. For two variables X and Y , we refer to the shared children of Xt and Yt in timeslice t + 1 as Zt+1 . The strength of interaction between X and Y is defined to be the average degree of non-separability for each variable in Zt+1 in terms of its parents taken separately. The degree of non-separability is one minus the degree of separability. Mutual information Whereas the degree of separability is a property of a single factor?s conditional distribution, the mutual information between two factors measures their joint dependencies. To compute it exactly requires, however, that we obtain a joint distribution over the two factors. All we are given is a DBN defining the conditional distribution over the next timeslice given the previous, and some initial distribution over the variables at time 1. In order to obtain a suitable joint distribution over the variables at t + 1 we must assume a prior distribution over the variables at time t. We therefore examine several features based on the mutual information that we can compute from the DBN in this way, to capture different types of dependencies. ? Mutual information after one timestep: We assume a prior distribution over the variables at time t and do one step of propagation to get a marginal distribution over Xt+1 and Yt+1 . We then use this marginal to compute the mutual information between X and Y , thus estimating the degree of dependency between X and Y that results from one step of the process. ? Mutual information between timeslices t and t + 1: We measure the dependencies resulting from X and Y directly influencing each other between timeslices: the more information Xt carries about Yt+1 , the more we expect them to become correlated as the process evolves. Again, we assume a prior distribution at time t and use this to obtain the joint distribution p(Yt+1 Xt )), from which we can calculate their mutual information. We sum the mutual information between Xt and Yt+1 and that between Yt and Xt+1 to get the score. ? Mutual information from the joint over both timeslices: We take into account all possible direct influences between X and Y, by computing the mutual information between the sets of variables (Xt ? Xt+1 ) and (Yt ? Yt+1 ). As before, we assume a prior distribution at time t to compute a joint distribution p((Xt ?Xt+1 )?(Yt ?Yt+1 )), from which we can get the mutual information. 4 There are many possibilities for a prior distribution at time t. We can assume a uniform distribution, in which case the resulting mutual information values are exactly those introduced by one step of inference, as all variables are independent at time t. More costly would be to generate samples from the DBN and to do inference, computing the average mutual information values observed over the steps of inference. We found that, on small examples, there was little practical benefit to doing the latter. For simplicity we use the uniform prior, although the effects of different prior assumptions deserves further inquiry. 3.3 Empirical comparison We compared the preceding pairwise scores by factoring randomly-generated DBNs, using the BK algorithm for belief state monitoring. We computed two error measures. The first is the joint belief state error, which is the relative entropy between the product of the factor marginal belief states and the exact joint belief state. The second is the average factor belief state error, which is the average over all factors of the relative entropy between each factor?s marginal distribution and the equivalent marginal distribution from the exact joint belief state. We were constrained in choosing datasets on which exact inference is tractable, which limited both the number of state variables and the number of parameters per variable. Note that in our tables the joint KL distance is always given in terms of 10?2 , while the factor marginal KL distance is in terms of 10?4 . For this comparison we used two datasets. The first is a large, relatively uncomplicated dataset that is intended to elucidate basic distinctions between the different heuristics. It consists of 400 DBNs, each of which contains 12 binary-valued state variables and 4 noisy observation variables. We tried to capture the tendency in real DBNs for variables to depend on a varying number of parents by drawing the number of parents for each variable from a gaussian distribution of mean 2 and standard deviation 1 (rounding the result and truncating at zero), and choosing parents uniformly from among the other variables. In real models variables usually, but not always, depend on themselves in the previous timeslice, and each variable in our networks also depended on itself with a probability of 0.75. Finally, the parameters for each variable were drawn randomly with a uniform prior. The second dataset is intended to capture more complicated structures commonly seen in real DBNs: determinisim and context-specific independence. It consists of 50 larger models, each with 20 binary state variables and 8 noisy observation variables. Parents and parameters were chosen as before, except that in this case we chose several variables to be deterministic, each computing a boolean function of its parents, and several other variables to have tree-structured context-specific independence. To generate context-specific independence, the variable?s parents were randomly permuted and between one half and all of the parents were chosen each to induce independence between the child variable and the parents lower in the tree, conditional upon one of its states. The results are shown in Table 1. For reference we have shown two additional methods that minimize the maximum out-degree and in-degree of factors. These are suggested by Boyen and Koller as a means of controlling the mixing rate of factored inference, which is used to bound the error. In all cases, the mutual-information based factorizations, and in particular the mutual information after one timestep, yielded lower error, both in the joint belief state and in the factor marginal belief states. The degree of separability is apparently not well-adapted to a pairwise score, given that it is naturally defined in terms of an entire factor. 4 Exploiting higher-order interactions The pairwise heuristics described above do not take into account higher-order properties of whole groups of variables: the mutual information between two factors is usually not exactly the sum of its constituent pairwise information relationships, and the degree of separability is naturally formulated in terms of a whole factor?s conditional distribution and not between arbitrary pairs of variables. Two search algorithms allow us to use scores computed for whole factors, and to find better factors while sacrificing speed. 4.1 Algorithms: Agglomerative clustering and local search Agglomerative clustering begins with all canonical variables in separate factors, and at each step chooses a pair of factors to merge such that the score of the factorization is minimized. If a merger leads to a factor of size greater than some given maximum, it is ignored. The algorithm stops when no advantageous merger is found. As the factors being scored are always of relatively small size, agglomerative clustering allows us to use full-factor scores. 5 Table 1: Random DBNs with pairwise scores 12 nodes Joint KL Factor KL Out-degree In-degree Children of common parents Parents of common children Parent to child Separability between parents Separability of pairs of variables Mut. information after timestep Mut. information between timeslices Mut. information from both timeslices ?10?4 2.50 2.44 2.61 1.98 2.28 2.69 2.80 1.11 1.62 1.65 ?10?2 1.25 1.20 1.87 1.01 1.19 1.09 1.27 0.408 0.664 0.575 20 nodes/determinism/CSI Joint KL Factor KL ?10?4 16.0 15.1 15.5 11.9 14.9 15.3 18.5 7.11 9.73 10.5 ?10?2 10.0 8.54 10.0 5.92 6.62 14.0 12.0 3.44 4.96 5.15 Local search begins with some initial factorization and attempts to find a factorization of minimum score by iteratively modifying this factorization. More specifically, from any given factorization moves of the following three types are considered: create a new factor with a single node, move a single node from one factor into another, or swap a pair of nodes in different factor. At each iteration only those moves that do not yield a factor of size greater than some given maximum are considered. The move that yields the lowest score at that iteration is chosen. If there is no move that decreases the score (and so we have hit a local minimum), however, the factors are randomly re-initialized and the algorithm continues searching, terminating after a fixed number of iterations. The factorization with the lowest score of all that were examined is returned. As with agglomerative clustering, local search enables the use of full-factor scores. We have found that good results are achieved when the factors are initialized (and re-initialized) to be as large as possible. In addition, although the third type of move (swapping) is a composition of the other two, we have found that the sequence of moves leading to an advantageous swap is not always a path of strictly decreasing scores, and performance degrades without it. We note that all of the algorithms benefit greatly from caching the components of the scores that are computed. 4.2 Empirical comparison We verified that the results for the pairwise scores extend to whole-factor scores on a dataset of 120 randomly-generated DBNs, each of which contained 8 binary-valued state variables. We were significantly constrained in our choice of models by the complexity of computing the degree of separability for large distributions: even on these smaller models, doing agglomerative clustering with the degree of separability sometimes took over 2 hours and local search much longer. We have therefore confined our comparison to agglomerative clustering on 8-variable models. We divided the dataset into three groups to explore the effects of both extensive determinism and context-specific independence separately. The mutual information after one timestep again produced the lowest error in both in the factor marginal belief states and in the joint belief state. For the networks with large amounts of contextspecific independence, the degree of separability was always close to one, and this might have hampered its effectiveness for clustering. Interestingly, we see that agglomerative clustering can sometimes produce results that are worse than those for graph partitioning, although local search consistently outperforms the two. This may be due to the fact that agglomerative clustering tends to produce smaller clusters than the divisive approach. Finally, we note that, although determinism greatly increased error, the relative performance of the different heuristics and algorithms was unchanged. Local search consistently found lower-error factorizations. We further compared the different algorithms on the dataset with 12 state variables per DBN, from Section 3.3, using the mutual information after one timestep score. It is perhaps surprising that the graph min-cut algorithm can perform comparably with the others, given that it is restricted to pairwise scores. 6 Table 2: Random DBNs using pairwise and whole-factor scores Score type/Search algorithm Separability between parents: Min-cut Separability b/t pairs of variables: Min-cut Whole-factor separability: Agglomerative Mut. info. after one timestep: Min-cut Agglomerative Local search Mut. info. between timeslices: Min-cut Agglomerative Local search Mut. info. both timeslices: Min-cut Agglomerative Local search 5 8 nodes Joint Factor 8 nodes/determ. Joint Factor 8 nodes/CSI Joint Factor 2.36 2.54 38.9 70 0.82 0.45 2.42 2.12 27.2 139 0.56 0.31 2.19 1.23 31.1 61 0.99 0.46 1.20 1.15 1.05 1.00 1.13 0.90 18.1 19.0 13.8 44 43 32 0.25 0.20 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.098 1.62 1.60 1.40 1.17 1.45 1.20 27.7 27.6 23.8 47 61 44 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.24 0.32 0.32 1.88 1.86 1.70 1.51 1.08 0.95 22.9 25.1 23.1 45 62 26 0.64 0.66 0.58 0.36 0.34 0.29 Factoring real models Boyen and Koller, [3], demonstrated factored inference on two models that were factored by hand: the Bayesian Automated Taxi network and the water network. Table 3 shows the performance of automatic factorization on these two DBNs. In both cases automatic factorization recovered reasonable factorizations that performed better than those found manually. The Bayesian Automated Taxi (BAT) network, [13], is intended to monitor highway traffic and car state for an automated driving system. The DBN contains 10 persistent state variables and 10 observation variables. Local search with factors of 5 or fewer variables yielded exactly the 5+5 clustering given in the paper. When allowing 4 or fewer variables per factor, local search and agglomerative search both recovered the factorization ([LeftClr], [RightClr], [LatAct+Xdot+InLane], [FwdAct+Ydot+Stopped+EngStatus], [FrontBackStatus]), while graph min-cut found ([EngStatus], [FrontBackStatus], [InLane], [Ydot], [FwdAct+Ydot+Stopped+EngStatus], [LatAct+LeftClr]). The manual factorization from [3] is ([LeftClr+RightClr+LatAct], [Xdot+InLane], [FwdAct+Ydot+Stopped+EngStatus], [FrontBackStatus]). The error results are shown in Table 3. Local search took about 300 seconds to complete, while agglomerative clustering took 138 seconds and graph min-cut 12 seconds. The water network is used for monitoring the biological processes of a water purification plant. It has 8 state variables and 4 observation variables (labeled A through H), and all variables are discrete with 3 or 4 states. The agglomerative and local search algorithms yielded the same result ([A+B+C+E], [D+F+G+H]) and graph min-cut was only slightly different ([A+C+E], [D+F+G+H], [B]). The manual factorization from [3] is ([A+B],[C+D+E+F],[G+H]). The results in terms of KL distance are shown in Figure 3. The automatically recovered factorizations were on average at least an order of magnitude better. Local search took about one minute to complete, while agglomerative clustering took 30 seconds and graph min-cut 3 seconds. 6 Conclusion We compared several heuristics and search algorithms for automatically factorizing a dynamic Bayesian network. These techniques attempt to minimize an objective score that captures the extent to which dependencies that are ignored by the factored approximation will lead to error. The heuristics we examined are based both on the structure of the 2-TBN and on the concepts of degree of separability and mutual information. The mutual information after one step of belief propaga7 Table 3: Algorithm performance 12-var. random Jnt. Fact. Min-cut Agglomerative Local search Manual 1.08 1.10 1.06 - Jnt. 0.433 0.55 0.52 - BAT Fact. 14.7 0.390 0.390 5.62 0.723 0.0485 0.0485 0.0754 Water Jnt. Fact. 0.430 0.0702 0.0702 3.12 1.32 0.566 0.566 2.12 tion has generally been greatly more effective than the others as an objective for factorization. We presented three search methods that allow for tradeoffs between computational complexity and the quality of the factorizations they produce. Recursive min-cut efficiently uses scores between pairs of variables, while agglomerative clustering and local search both use scores computed between whole factors ? the latter two are slower, while achieving better results. Automatic factorization can extend the applicability of factored inference to larger models for which it is undesireable to find factors manually. In addition, tests run on real DBNs show that automatically factorized DBNs can achieve significantly lower error than hand-factored models. Future work might explore extensions to overlapping factors, which have been found to yield lower error in some cases. Acknowledgments This work was funded by an ONR project, with special thanks to Dr. Wendy Martinez. References [1] Sun Yong Kim, Seiya Imot, and Satoru Miyano. Inferring gene networks from time series microarray data using dynamic Bayesian networks. Briefings in Bioinformatics, 2003. [2] Geoffrey Zweig and Stuart Russell. Dynamic Bayesian networks for speech recognition. In National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 1998. [3] Xavier Boyen and Daphne Koller. Tractable inference for complex stochastic processes. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 1998. [4] Kevin Murphy and Yair Weiss. The factored frontier algorithm for approximate inference in DBNs. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2001. [5] Brenda Ng, Leonid Peshkin, and Avi Pfeffer. Factored particles for scalable monitoring. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2002. [6] Avi Pfeffer. Approximate separability for weak interaction in dynamic systems. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2006. [7] Thomas Dean and Keiji Kanazawa. A model for reasoning about persistence and causation. Computational Intelligence, 1989. [8] Kevin Murphy. Dynamic Bayesian networks: representation, inference and learning. PhD thesis, U.C. Berkeley, Computer Science Division, 2002. [9] Avi Pfeffer. Sufficiency, separability and temporal probabilistic models. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2001. [10] Xavier Boyen and Daphne Koller. Exploiting the architecture of dynamic systems. In Proceedings AAAI-99, 1999. [11] Andrew Ng, Michael Jordan, and Yair Weiss. On spectral clustering: analysis and an algorithm. In Neural Information Processing Systems, 2001. [12] Charlie Frogner and Avi Pfeffer. Heuristics for automatically decomposing a dynamic Bayesian network for factored inference. Technical Report TR-04-07, Harvard University, 2007. [13] Jeff Forbes, Tim Huang, Keiji Kanazawa, and Stuart Russell. The BATmobile: towards a Bayesian automatic taxi. In International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1995. 8
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Inferring Elapsed Time from Stochastic Neural Processes Misha B. Ahrens and Maneesh Sahani Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL Alexandra House, 17 Queen Square, London, WC1N 3AR {ahrens, maneesh}@gatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract Many perceptual processes and neural computations, such as speech recognition, motor control and learning, depend on the ability to measure and mark the passage of time. However, the processes that make such temporal judgements possible are unknown. A number of different hypothetical mechanisms have been advanced, all of which depend on the known, temporally predictable evolution of a neural or psychological state, possibly through oscillations or the gradual decay of a memory trace. Alternatively, judgements of elapsed time might be based on observations of temporally structured, but stochastic processes. Such processes need not be specific to the sense of time; typical neural and sensory processes contain at least some statistical structure across a range of time scales. Here, we investigate the statistical properties of an estimator of elapsed time which is based on a simple family of stochastic process. 1 Introduction The experience of the passage of time, as well as the timing of events and intervals, has long been of interest in psychology, and has more recently attracted attention in neuroscience as well. Timing information is crucial for the correct functioning of a large number of processes, such as accurate limb movement, speech and the perception of speech (for example, the difference between ?ba? and ?pa? lies only in the relative timing of voice onsets), and causal learning. Neuroscientific evidence that points to a specialized neural substrate for timing is very sparse, particularly when compared to the divergent set of specific mechanisms which have been theorized. One of the most influential proposals, the scalar expectancy theory (SET) of timing [1], suggests that interval timing is based on the accumulation of activity from an internal oscillatory process. Other proposals have included banks of oscillators which, when fine-tuned, produce an alignment of phases at a specified point in time that can be used to generate a neuronal spike [2]; models in which timing occurs via the characteristic and monotonic decay of memory traces [3] or reverberant activity [4]; and randomly-connected deterministic networks, which, given neuronal processes of appropriate timescales, can be shown to encode elapsed time implicitly [5]. Although this multitude of theories shows that there is little consensus on the mechanisms responsible for timing, it does point out an important fact: that timing information is present in a range of different processes, from oscillations to decaying memories and the dynamics of randomly connected neural networks. All of the theories above choose one specific such process, and suggest that observers rely on that one alone to judge time. An alternative, which we explore here, is to phrase time estimation as a statistical problem, in which the elapsed time ?t is extracted from a collection of stochastic processes whose statistics are known. This is loosely analagous to accounts have appeared in the psychological literature in the form of number-of-events models [6], which suggest that the number of events in an interval influence the perception of its duration. Such models have 1 been related to recent psychological findings the show that the nature of the stimulus being timed affects judgments of duration [7]. Here, by contrast, we consider the properties of duration estimators that are based on more general stochastic processes. The particular stochastic processes we analyze are abstract. However, they may be seen as models both for internally-generated neural processes, such as (spontaneous) network activity and local field potentials, and for sensory processes, in the form of externally-driven neural activity, or (taking a functional view) in the form of the stimuli themselves. Both neural activity and sensory input from the environment follow well-defined temporal statistical patterns, but the exploitation of these statistics has thus far not been studied as a potential substrate for timing judgements, despite being potentially attractive. Such a basis for timing is consistent with recent studies that show that the statistics of external stimuli affect timing estimates [8, 7], a behavior not captured by the existing mechanistic models. In addition, there is evidence that timing mechanisms are distributed [9] but subject to local (e.g. retinotopic or spatiotopic) biases [10]. Using the distributed time-varying processes which are already present in the brain is implementationally efficient, and lends itself straightforwardly to a distributed implementation. At the same time, it suggests a possible origin for the modality-specificity and locality of the bias effects, as different sets of processes may be exploited for different timing purposes. Here, we show primarily that interval estimates based on such processes obey a Weber-like scaling law for accuracy under a wide range of assumptions, as well as scaling with process number that is consistent with experimental observation; and we use estimation theoretic analysis to find the reasons behind the robustness of these scaling laws. Neuronal spike trains exhibit internal dependencies on many time scales, ranging from milliseconds to tens of seconds [11, 12], so these ? or, more likely, processes derived from spike trains, such as average network activity ? are plausible candidates for the types of processes assumed in this paper. Likewise, sensory information too varies over a large range of temporal scales [13]. The particular stochastic processes we use here are Gaussian Processes, whose power spectra are chosen to be broad and roughly similar to those seen in natural stimuli. 2 The framework To illustrate how random processes contain timing information, consider a random walk starting at the origin, and suppose that we see a snapshot of the random walk at another, unknown, point in time. If the walk were to end up very far from the origin, and if some statistics of the random walk were known, we would expect that the time difference between the two observations, ?t, must be reasonably long in comparison to the diffusion time of the process. If, however, the second point were still very close to the origin, we might assign a high probability to ?t ? 0, but also some probability (associated with delayed return to the orgin) to |?t| > 0. Access to more than one such random walk would lead to more accurate estimates (e.g. if two random walks had both moved very little between the two instances in time, our confidence that ?t ? 0 would be greater). From such considerations it is evident that, on the basis of multiple stochastic processes, one can build up a probabilistic model for ?t. To formalize these ideas, we model the random processes as a family of independent stationary Gaussian Processes (GPs, [14]). A GP is a stochastic process y(t) in which any subset of observations {y(t), y(t? ), y(t?? ), ...} is jointly Gaussian distributed, so that the probability distribution over observations is completely specified by a mean value (here set to zero) and a covariance structure (here assumed to remain constant in time). We denote the set of processes by {yi (t)}. Although this is not a necessity, we let each process evolve independently according to the same stochastic dynamics; thus the process values differ only due to the random effects. Mimicking the temporal statistics of natural scenes [15], we choose the dynamics to simultaneously contain multiple time scales ? specifically, the power spectrum approximately follows a 1/f 2 power law, were f = frequency = 1/(time scale). Some instances of such processes are shown in Figure 1. Stationary Gaussian processes are fully described by the covariance function K(?t): hyi (t)yi (t + ?t)i = K(?t) so that the probability of observing a sequence of values [yi (t1 ), yi (t2 ), ..., yi (tn )] is Gaussian distributed, with zero mean and covariance matrix ?n,n? = K(tn? ? tn ). 2 y log power 0 ?5 ?10 ?4 time ?2 0 log frequency 2 4 Figure 1: Left: Two examples of the GPs used for inference of ?t. Right: Their power spectrum. This is approximately a 1/f 2 spectrum, similar to the temporal power spectrum of visual scenes. To generate processes with multiple time scales, we approximate a 1/f 2 spectrum with a sum over Q squared exponential covariance functions: K(?t) = Q X q=1 ?q2 exp(??t2 /2lq2 ) + ?y2 I(?t) Here ?y2 I(?t) describes the instantaneous noise around the underlying covariance structure (I is the indicator function, which equals 1 when its argument is zero), and lq are the time scales of the component squared exponential functions. We take these to be linearly spaced, so that lq ? q. To mimic a 1/f 2 spectrum, we choose the power of each component to be constant: ?q2 = 1/Q. Figure 1 shows that this choice does indeed quite accurately reproduce a 1/f 2 power spectrum. To illustrate how elapsed time is implicitly encoded in such stochastic processes, we infer the duration of an interval [t, t + ?t] from two instantaneous observations of the processes, namely {yi (t)} and {yi (t+?t)}. For convenience, yi is used to denote the vector [yi (t), yi (t+?t)]. The covariance matrix ?(?t) of yi , which is of size 2x2, gives rise to a likelihood of these observations, P ({yi (t)}, {yi (t + ?t)}|?t) Y ? i   1 |?|?1/2 exp ? yiT ??1 yi 2 With the assumption of a weak prior1 , this yields a posterior distribution over ?t: ?(?t) = P (?t|{yi }) ? P (?t) ? Y i P (yi |?t) !  1 X T ?1 ? P (?t) ? exp ? log |?| + yi ? yi 2 i This distribution gives a probabilistic description of the time difference between two snapshots of the random processes. As we will see below (see Figure 2), this distribution tends to be centred on the true value of ?t, showing that such random processes may indeed be exploited to obtain timing information. In the following section, we explore the statistical properties of timing estimates based on ?, and show that they correspond to several experimental findings. 1 such as P (?t) = ? exp(???t)?(?t) with ? ? 1 and ? the Heaviside function, or P (?t) = U[0, tmax ]; the details of the weak prior do not affect the results. 3 4 25 standard deviation estimated ? t 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 ?t 10 3 2 1 0 15 0 5 ?t 10 15 Figure 2: Statistics of the inference of ?t from snapshots of a group of GPs. The GPs have time scales in the interval [0.05, 50]. Left: The mean estimated times (blue) are clustered around the true times (dashed). Right: The Weber law of timing, ? ? ?t, approximately holds true for this model. The error bars are standard errors derived via a Laplace approximation to the posterior. A straight line fit is shown with a dashed line. The Cramer-Rao bound (blue), which will be derived later in the text, predicts the empirical data well. 3 3.1 Scaling laws and behaviour Empirical demonstration of Weber?s law Many behavioral studies have shown that the standard deviation of interval estimates is proportional to the interval being judged, ? ? ?t, across a wide range of timescales and tasks (e.g. [1]). Here, we show that GP-based estimates share this property under broad conditions. To compare the behaviour of the model to experimental data, we must choose a mapping from the function ? to a single scalar value, which will model the observer?s report. A simple choice is to assume that the reported ?t is the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator based on ?, that is, c MAP = argmax?t ?(?t). To compare the statistics of this estimator to the experimental obser?t vation, we took samples {yi (t)} and {yi (t + ?t)} from 50 GPs with identical 1/f 2 -like statistics containing time scales from 1 to 40 time units. 100 samples were generated for each ?t (ranging c MAP . These estimates are plotted in Figure 2A. from 1 to 16 time unis), leading to 100 estimates, ?t They are seen to follow the true ?t. Their spread around the true value increases with increasing ?t. The standard deviation of this spread is plotted in Figure 2B, and is a roughly linear function of ?t. Thus, time estimation is possible using the stochastic process framework, and the Weber law of timing holds fairly accurately. 3.2 Fisher Information and Weber?s law A number of questions about this Weber-like result naturally arise: Does it still hold if one changes the power spectrum of the processes? What if one changes the scale of the instantaneous noise? We increased the noise scale ?y2 , and found that the Weber law was still approximately satisfied. When changing the power spectrum of the processes from a 1/f 2 -type spectrum to a 1/f 3 -type spectrum (by letting ?i2 ? li instead of ?i2 ? 1), the Weber law was still approximately satisfied (Figure 3). This result may appear somewhat counter-intuitive, as one might expect that the accuracy of the estimator for ?t would increase as the power in frequencies around 1/?t increased; thus, changing the power spectrum to 1/f 3 might be expected to result in more accurate estimates of large ?t (lower frequencies) as compared to estimates of small ?t, but this was not the case. To find reasons for this behaviour, it would useful to have an analytical expression for the relationship between the variability of the estimated duration and the true duration. This is complex, but a simpler analytical approximation to this relation can be constructed through the Cramer-Rao bound. This is a lower bound on the asymptotic variance of an unbiased Maximum Likelihood estimator of ?t and is given by the inverse Fisher Information: 4 y standard deviation 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 5 time ?t 10 15 Figure 3: Left: Two examples of GPs with a different power spectrum (?i2 ? li , for li ? i, which approximates a 1/f 3 power spectrum, resulting in much smoother dynamics). Right: Inference of c MAP is based on the true likelihood, ?t based on these altered processes. Note that the estimator ?t i.e., the new 1/f 3 statistics. The Weber law still approximately holds, even though the dynamics is different from the initial case. The empirical standard deviation is again well predicted by the analytical Cramer-Rao bound (blue). c ? 1/IF (?t) Var(?t) The Fisher Information, assuming that the elapsed time is estimated on the basis of N processes, each evolving according to covariance matrix ?(?t), is given by the expression IF (?t) = ?N   D ? 2 log P ({y }|?t) E N i ?1 ?? ?1 ?? = Tr ? ? ??t2 2 ??t ??t y (1) This bound is plotted in blue in Figure 2, and again in Figure 3, and can be seen to be a good approximation to the empirical behaviour of the model. What is the reason for the robust Weber-like behaviour? To answer this question, consider a different but related model, in which there are N Gaussian processes, again labeled i, but each now evolving according to different covariance matrix Ci (?t). Previously, each process reflected structure at many timescales. In this new model, each process evolves with a single squared-exponential covariance kernel, and thus a single time-constant. This will allow us to see how each process contributes to the accuracy of the estimator. Thus, in this model, [Ci (?t)]n,n? = ?i2 exp(?(tn? ?tn )2 /2li2 )+?y2 I(tn? ?tn ). (The power spectrum is then shaped as exp(?f 2 li2 /2).) The likelihood of observing the processes at two instances is now P ({yi (t)}, {yi (t + ?t)}|?t) Y ? i ?1/2 |Ci |   1 T ?1 exp ? yi Ci yi 2 (2) This model shows very similar behaviour to the original model, but is somewhat less natural. Its advantage lies in the fact that the Fisher Information can now be decomposed as a sum over different time scales, IF (?t) = X i IF,i   1X ?1 ?Ci ?1 ?Ci = Tr Ci C 2 i ??t i ??t Using the Fisher Information to plot Cramer-Rao bounds for different types of processes {yi (t)} (Figure 4, dashed lines), we first note that the bounds are all relatively close to linear, even though the parameters governing the processes are very different. In particular, we tested both linear spacing of time scales (li ? i) and quadratic spacing (li ? i2 ), and we tested a constant power distribution 5 power ~ time scale lengthscales spaced linearly power ~ time scale lengthscales spaced quadratically l=0.7 l=2.4,... l=42.3 Cr.?Rao bound F F I and (I )?1/2 IF and (IF) ?1/2 l=6 l=11,... l=46 Cr.?Rao bound 0 10 ?t 20 30 0 power = constant lengthscales spaced linearly 20 30 l=0.7 l=2.4,... l=42.3 Cr.?Rao bound F F I and (I )?1/2 ?1/2 ?t power = constant lengthscales spaced quadratically l=6 l=11,... l=46 Cr.?Rao bound IF and (IF) 10 0 10 ?t 20 30 0 10 ?t 20 30 Figure 4: Fisher Information and Cramer-Rao bounds for the model of equation 2. The Cramer-Rao bound is the square root of the inverse of the sum of all the Fisher Information curves (note that only a few Fisher Information curves are shown). The noise scale ?y2 = 0.1, and the time scales are either li = i, i = 1, 2, . . . , 50 (linear) or li = i2 /50, i = 1, 2, . . . , 50 (quadratic). The power of each process is either ?i2 = 1 (constant) or ?i2 = li . The graphs show that each time scale contributes to the estimation of a wide range of ?t, and that the Cramer-Rao bounds are all fairly linear, leading to a robust Weber-like behaviour of the estimator of elapsed time. (?i = 1) and a power distribution where slower processes have more power (?i2 ? li ). None of these manipulations caused the Cramer-Rao bound to deviate much from linearity. Next, we can evaluate the contribution of each time scale to the accuracy of estimates of ?t, by inspecting the Fisher Information IF,i of a given process yi . Figure 4 shows that (contrary to the intuition that time scales close to ?t contribute most to the estimation of ?t) a process evolving at a certain time scale lj contributes to the estimation of elapsed time ?t even if ?t is much smaller than lj (indeed, the peak of IF,j does not lie at lj , but below it). This lies at the heart of the robust Weber-like behaviour: the details of the distribution of time scales do not matter much, because each time scale contributes to the estimation of a wide range of ?t. For similar reasons, the distribution of power does not drastically affect the Cramer-Rao bound. From the graphs of IF,i , it is evident that the Weber law arises from an accumulation of high values of Fisher Information at low values of ?t. Very small values of ?t may be an exception, if the instantaneous noise dominates the subtle changes that the processes undergo during very short periods; for these ?t, the standard deviation may rise. This is reflected by a subtle rise in some of the Cramer-Rao bounds at very low values of ?t. However, it may be assumed that the shortest times that neural systems can evaluate are no shorter than the scale of the fastest process within the system, making these small ?t?s irrelevant. 3.3 Dependence of timing variability on the number of processes Increasing the number of processes, say Nprocesses , will add more terms to the likelihood and make the estimated ?t more accurate. The Fisher Information (equation 1) scales with Nprocesses , which p c MAP is proportional to 1/ Nprocesses ; this was confirmed suggests that the standard deviation of ?t empirically (data not shown). 6 Psychologically and neurally, increasing the number of processes would correspond to adding more perceptual processes, or expanding the size of the network that is being monitored for timing estimation. Although experimental data on this issue is sparse, in [9], it is shown that unimanual rhythm tapping results in a higher variability of tapping times than bimanual rhythm tapping, and that tapping with two hands and a foot results in even lower variability. c MAP . Note that a This correlates well with the theoretical scaling behaviour of the estimator ?t similar scaling law is obtained from the Multiple Timer Model [16]. This is not a model for timing itself, but for the combination of timing estimates of multiple timers; the Multiple Timer Model combines these estimates by averaging, which is the ML estimate ? arising from independent draws of equal variance Gaussian random variables, also resulting in a 1/ N scaling law. ? Experimentally, a slower decrease in variability than a 1/ N law was observed. This can be accounted for by assuming that the processes governing the right and left hands are dependent, so that the number of effectively independent processes grows more slowly than the number of effectors. 4 Conclusion We have shown that timing information is present in random processes, and can be extracted probabilistically if certain statistics of the processes are known. A neural implementation of such a framework of time estimation could use both internally generated population activity as well as external stimuli to drive its processes. The timing estimators considered were based on the full probability distribution of the process values at times t and t? , but simpler estimators could also be constructed. There are two reasons for considering simpler estimators: First, simpler estimators might be more easily implemented in neural systems. Second, to calculate ?(?t), one needs all of {yi (t), yi (t? )}, so that (at least) {yi (t)} has to be stored in memory. One way to construct a simpler estimator might be to select a particular class (say, a linear function of {yi }) and optimize over its parameters. Alternatively, an estimator may be based on the posterior distribution over ?t conditioned on a reduced set of parameters, with the neglected parameters integrated out. Another route might be to consider different stochatic processes, which have more compact sufficient statistics (e.g. Brownian motion, being translationally invariant, would require only {yi (t? ) ? yi (t)} instead of {yi (t), yi (t? )}; we have not considered such processes because they are unbounded and therefore hard to associate with sensory or neural processes). We have not addressed how a memory mechanism might be combined with the stochastic process framework; this will be explored in the future. The intention of this paper is not to offer a complete theory of neural and psychological timing, but to examine the statistical properties of a hitherto neglected substrate for timing ? stochastic processes that take place in the brain or in the sensory world. It was demonstrated that estimators based on such processes replicate several important behaviors of humans and animals. Full models might be based on the same substrate, thereby naturally incorporating the same behaviors, but contain more completely specified relations to external input, memory mechanisms, adaptive mechanisms, neural implementation, and importantly, (supervised) learning of the estimator. The neural and sensory processes that we assume to form the basis of time estimation are, of course, not fully random. But when the deterministic structure behind a process is unknown, they can still be treated as stochastic under certain statistical rules, and thus lead to a valid timing estimator. Would the GP likelihood still apply to real neural processes or would the correct likelihood be completely different? This is unknown; however, the Multivariate Central Limit Theorem implies that sums of i.i.d. stochastic processes tend to Gaussian Processes ? so that, when e.g. monitoring average neuronal activity, the correct estimator may well be based on a GP likelihood. An issue that deserves consideration is the mixing of internal (neural) and external (sensory) processes. Since timing information is present in both sensory processes (such as sound and movement of the natural world, and the motion of one?s body) and internal processes (such as fluctuations in network activity), and because stimulus statistics influence timing estimates, we propose that psychological and neural timing may make use of both types of processes. However, fluctuations in the external world do not always translate into neural fluctuations (e.g. there is evidence for a spatial 7 code for temporal frequency in V2 [17]), so that neural and stimulus fluctuations cannot always be treated on the same footing. We will address this issue in the future. The framework presented here has some similarities with the very interesting and more explicitly physiological model proposed by Buonomano and colleagues [5, 18], in which time is implicitly encoded in deterministic2 neural networks through slow neuronal time constants. However, temporal information in the network model is lost when there are stimulus-independent fluctuations in the network activity, and the network can only be used as a reliable timer when it starts from a fixed resting state, and if the stimulus is identical on every trial. The difference in our scheme is that here timing estimates are based on statistics, rather than deterministic structure, so that it is fundamentally robust to noise, internal fluctuations, and stimulus changes. The stochastic process framework is, however, more abstract and farther removed from physiology, and a neural implementation may well share some features of the network model of timing. Acknowledgements: We thank Jeff Beck for useful suggestions, and Peter Dayan and Carlos Brody for interesting discussions. References [1] J Gibbon. Scalar expectancy theory and Weber?s law in animal timing. Psychol Rev, 84:279?325, 1977. [2] R C Miall. The storage of time intervals using oscillating neurons. Neural Comp, 1:359?371, 1989. [3] J E R Staddon and J J Higa. Time and memory: towards a pacemaker-free theory of interval timing. J Exp Anal Behav, 71:215?251, 1999. [4] G Bugmann. Towards a neural model of timing. Biosystems, 48:11?19, 1998. [5] D V Buonomano and M M Merzenich. Temporal information transformed into a spatial code by a neural network with realistic properties. Science, 267:1028?1030, 1995. [6] D Poynter. Judging the duration of time intervals: A process of remembering segments of experience. In I Levin and D Zakay, editors, Time and human cognition: A life-span perspective, pages 305?331. Elsevier, 1989. [7] R Kanai, C L E Paffen, H Hogendoorn, and F A J Verstraten. Time dilation in dynamic visual display. J Vision, 6:1421?1430, 2006. [8] D M Eagleman, P U Tse, D V Buonomano, P Janssen, A C Nobre, and A O Holcombe. Time and the brain: How subjective time relates to neural time. J Neurosci, pages 10369?10371, 2005. [9] R B Ivry, T C Richardson, and L L Helmuth. Improved temporal stability in multi-effector movements. J Exp Psychol, 28:72?92, 2002. [10] D Burr, A Tozzi, and M C Morrone. Neural mechanisms for timing visual events are spatially selective in real-world coordinates. Nat Neurosci, 10:423?425, 2007. [11] M C Teich, C Heneghan, and S B Lowen. Fractal characted of the neural spike train in the visual system of the cat. J Opt Soc Am A, 14:529?546, 1997. [12] L C Osborne, W Bialek, and S G Lisberger. Time course of information about motion direction in visual area MT of macaque monkeys. J Neurosci, 24:3210?3222, 2004. [13] H Attias and C E Schreiner. Temporal low-order statistics of natural sounds. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 9, pages 27?33, 1996. [14] C E Rasmussen and C K I Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [15] D W Dong and J J Atick. Statistics of natural time-varying images. Network: Computation in Neural Systems, 6:345?358, 1995. [16] R B Ivry and T C Richardson. Temporal control and coordination: the multiple timer model. Brain and Cognition, 48:117?132, 2002. [17] K H Foster, J P Gaska, M Nagler, and D A Pollen. Spatial and temporal frequency selectivity of neurones in visual cortical areas v1 and v2 of the macaque monkey. J Physiol, 365:331?363, 1985. [18] U R Karmarkar and D V Buonomano. Timing in the absence of clocks: encoding time in neural network states. Neuron, 53:427?438, 2007. 2 While this model and some other previous models might also contain neuronal noise, it is the deterministic (and known) element of their behaviour which encodes time. 8
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A Unified Near-Optimal Estimator For Dimension Reduction in l? (0 < ? ? 2) Using Stable Random Projections Ping Li Department of Statistical Science Faculty of Computing and Information Science Cornell University [email protected] Trevor J. Hastie Department of Statistics Department of Health, Research and Policy Stanford University [email protected] Abstract Many tasks (e.g., clustering) in machine learning only require the l? distances instead of the original data. For dimension reductions in the l? norm (0 < ? ? 2), the method of stable random projections can efficiently compute the l? distances in massive datasets (e.g., the Web or massive data streams) in one pass of the data. The estimation task for stable random projections has been an interesting topic. We propose a simple estimator based on the fractional power of the samples (projected data), which is surprisingly near-optimal in terms of the asymptotic variance. In fact, it achieves the Cram?er-Rao bound when ? = 2 and ? = 0+. This new result will be useful when applying stable random projections to distancebased clustering, classifications, kernels, massive data streams etc. 1 Introduction Dimension reductions in the l? norm (0 < ? ? 2) have numerous applications in data mining, information retrieval, and machine learning. In modern applications, the data can be way too large for the physical memory or even the disk; and sometimes only one pass of the data can be afforded for building statistical learning models [1, 2, 5]. We abstract the data as a data matrix A ? Rn?D . In many applications, it is often the case that we only need the l? properties (norms or distances) of A. The method of stable random projections [9, 18, 22] is a useful tool for efficiently computing the l? (0 < ? ? 2) properties in massive data using a small (memory) space. Denote the leading two rows in the data matrix A by u1 , u2 ? RD . The l? distance d(?) is d(?) = D X |u1,i ? u2,i |? . (1) i=1 The choice of ? is beyond the scope of this study; but basically, we can treat ? as a tuning parameter. In practice, the most popular choice, i.e., the ? = 2 norm, often does not work directly on the original (unweighted) data, as it is well-known that truly large-scale datasets (especially Internet data) are ubiquitously ?heavy-tailed.? In machine learning, it is often crucial to carefully term-weight the data (e.g., taking logarithm or tf-idf) before applying subsequent learning algorithms using the l2 norm. As commented in [12, 21], the term-weighting procedure is often far more important than fine-tuning the learning parameters. Instead of weighting the original data, an alternative scheme is to choose an appropriate norm. For example, the l1 norm has become popular recently, e.g., LASSO, LARS, 1-norm SVM [23], Laplacian radial basis kernel [4], etc. But other norms are also possible. For example, [4]Pproposed a family of non-Gaussian radial basis kernels for SVM in the form K(x, y) = exp (?? i |xi ? yi |? ), where x and y are data points in high-dimensions; and [4] showed that ? ? 1 (even ? = 0) in some cases produced better results in histogram-based image classifications. The l? norm with ? < 1, which may initially appear strange, is now well-understood to be a natural measure of sparsity [6]. In the extreme case, when ? ? 0+, the l? norm approaches the Hamming norm (i.e., the number of non-zeros in the vector). Therefore, there is the natural demand in science and engineering for dimension reductions in the l? norm other than l2 . While the method of normal random projections for the l2 norm [22] has become very popular recently, we have to resort to more general methodologies for 0 < ? < 2. The idea of stable random projections is to multiply A with a random projection matrix R ? RD?k (k ? D). The matrix B = A ? R ? Rn?k will be much smaller than A. The entries of R are (typically) i.i.d. samples from a symmetric ?-stable distribution [24], denoted by S(?, 1), where ? is the index and 1 is the scale. We can then discard the original data matrix A because the projected matrix B now contains enough information to recover the original l? properties approximately. A symmetric ?-stable random variable is denoted by S(?, d), where d is the scale parameter. If x ? S(?, d), then its characteristic function (Fourier transform of the density function) would be ?  E exp ?1xt = exp (?d|t|? ) , (2) whose inverse does not have a closed-form except for ? = 2 (i.e., normal) or ? = 1 (i.e., Cauchy). Applying stable random projections on u1 ? RD , u2 ? RD yields, respectively, v1 = RT u1 ? Rk and v2 = RT u2 ? Rk . By the properties of Fourier transforms, the projected differences, v1,j ?v2,j , j = 1, 2, ..., k, are i.i.d. samples of the stable distribution S(?, d(?) ), i.e., xj = v1,j ? v2,j ? S(?, d(?) ), j = 1, 2, ..., k. (3) Thus, the task is to estimate the scale parameter from k i.i.d. samples xj ? S(?, d(?) ). Because no closed-form density functions are available except for ? = 1, 2, the estimation task is challenging when we seek estimators that are both accurate and computationally efficient. For general 0 < ? < 2, a widely used estimator is based on the sample inter-quantiles [7,20], which can be simplified to be the sample median estimator by choosing the 0.75 - 0.25 sample quantiles and using the symmetry of S(?, d(?) ). That is median{|xj |? , j = 1, 2, ..., k} . d?(?),me = median{S(?, 1)}? (4) It has been well-known that the sample median estimator is not accurate, especially when the sample size k is not too large. Recently, [13] proposed various estimators based on the geometric mean and the harmonic mean of the samples. The harmonic mean estimator only works for small ?. The geometric mean estimator has nice properties including closed-form variances, closed-form tail bounds in exponential forms, and very importantly, an analog of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss (JL) Lemma [10] for dimension reduction in l? . The geometric mean estimator, however, can still be improved for certain ?, especially for large samples (e.g., as k ? ?). 1.1 Our Contribution: the Fractional Power Estimator The fractional power estimator, with a simple unified format for all 0 < ? ? 2, is (surprisingly) near-optimal in the Cram?er-Rao sense (i.e., when k ? ?, its variance is close to the Cram?er-Rao lower bound). In particularly, it achieves the Cram?er-Rao bound when ? = 2 and ? ? 0+. The basic idea is straightforward. We first obtain an unbiased estimator of d?(?) , denoted by R? (?),? .  1/?  We then estimate d(?) by R? (?),? , which can be improved by removing the O k1 bias (this consequently also reduces the variance) using Taylor expansions. We choose ? = ?? (?) to minimize the theoretical asymptotic variance. We prove that ?? (?) is the solution to a simple convex program, i.e., ?? (?) can be pre-computed and treated as a constant for every ?. The main computation involves only P k j=1 |xj |? ? ? 1/?? ; and hence this estimator is also computationally efficient. 1.2 Applications The method of stable random projections is useful for efficiently computing the l? properties (norms or distances) in massive data, using a small (memory) space. ? Data stream computations Massive data streams are fundamental in many modern data processing application [1, 2, 5, 9]. It is common practice to store only a very small sketch of the streams to efficiently compute the l? norms of the individual streams or the l? distances between a pair of streams. For example, in some cases, we only need to visually monitor the time history of the l? distances; and approximate answers often suffice. One interesting special case is to estimate the Hamming norms (or distances) using the PD ? fact that, when ? ? 0+, d(?) = i=1 |u1,i ? u2,i | approaches the total number of D non-zeros in {|u1,i ? u2,i |}i=1 , i.e., the Hamming distance [5]. One may ask why not just (binary) quantize the data and then apply normal random projections to the binary data. [5] considered that the data are dynamic (i.e., frequent addition/subtraction) and hence prequantizing the data would not work. With stable random projections, we only need to update the corresponding sketches whenever the data are updated. ? Computing all pairwise distances In many applications including distanced-based clustering, classifications and kernels (e.g.) for SVM, we only need the pairwise distances. Computing all pairwise distances of A ? Rn?D would cost O(n2 D), which can be significantly reduced to O(nDk + n2 k) by stable random projections. The cost reduction will be more considerable when the original datasets are too large for the physical memory. ? Estimating l? distances online While it is often infeasible to store the original matrix A in the memory, it is also often infeasible to materialize all pairwise distances in A. Thus, in applications such as online learning, databases, search engines, online recommendation systems, and online market-basket analysis, it is often more efficient if we store B ? Rn?k in the memory and estimate any pairwise distance in A on the fly only when it is necessary. When we treat ? as a tuning parameter, i.e., re-computing the l? distances for many different ?, stable random projections will be even more desirable as a cost-saving device. 2 Previous Estimators We assume k i.i.d. samples xj ? S(?, d(?) ), j = 1, 2, ..., k. We list several previous estimators. ? The geometric mean estimator is recommended in [13] for ? < 2. d?(?),gm =  2 Qk ? k ? ( 2   ? 2 ? Var d(?),gm = d(?)  ? 2 ? ?  2 1 ? = d2(?) k 12 ? |xj |?/k  k . 1 ? k1 sin ?2 ?k )   k 2? ? 1 ? k2 sin ? ?k k   2k ? 1 ? ? 1 ? k1 sin ?2 ?k k     1 ?2 + 2 + O . k2 j=1  ? (5) (6) (7) ? The harmonic mean estimator is recommended in [13] for 0 < ? ? 0.344. !! ???(?2?) sin (??) , k?  2 ? 1 ?(??) sin ?2 ? !   ???(?2?) sin (??) 1 ? 1 + O .  2 k2 ?(??) sin ? ?  ? ?2 ?(??) sin ?2 ? ? d(?),hm = Pk ?? j=1 |xj |   1 Var d?(?),hm = d2(?) k (8) (9) 2 P ? For ? = 2, the arithmetic mean estimator, k1 kj=1 |xj |2 , is commonly used, which has variance = k2 d2(2) . It can be improved by taking advantage of the marginal l2 norms [17]. 3 The Fractional Power Estimator The fractional power estimator takes advantage of the following statistical result in Lemma 1.  Lemma 1 Suppose x ? S ?, d(?) . Then for ?1 < ? < ?,   ?   ? ?/? 2 E |x|? = d(?) ? 1 ? ?(?) sin ? . (10) ? ? 2 If ? = 2, i.e., x ? S(2, d(2) ) = N (0, 2d(2) ), then for ? > ?1,   ?   ? ?/2 2 ?/2 2? (?) . E |x|? = d(2) ? 1 ? ?(?) sin ? = d(2) ? 2 2 ? ?2 (11) Proof: For 0 < ? ? 2 and ?1 < ? < ?, (10) can be inferred directly from [24, Theorem 2.6.3]. For ? = 2, the moment E |x|? exists for any ? > ?1. (11) can be shown by directly integrating the Gaussian density (using the integral formula [8, 3.381.4]). The Euler?s ? reflection formula ? and the duplication formula ?(z)? z + 12 = 21?2z ??(2z) are handy. ?(1 ? z)?(z) = sin(?z) The fractional power estimator is defined in Lemma 2. See the proof in Appendix A. Lemma 2 Denoted by d?(?),f p , the fractional power estimator is defined as d?(?),f p = where 1 k Pk j=1 |xj |? ? !1/?? ?  ? ? ?? )?(?? ?) sin ?2 ?? ? !!   2 ?(1 ? 2?? )?(2?? ?) sin (??? ?) 1 1 1 ? ?1 , 1? 2 ? 1 2 k 2?? ?? ?(1 ? ?? )?(?? ?) sin ?2 ?? ? ? ! 2 ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???) 1 ?? = argmin g (?; ?) , g (?; ?) = 2 ?2 ? 1 . 2 ? ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin ? ?? ? 1 ?< 1 2? 2 ?(1 ? ? 2 (12) (13) 2 Asymptotically (i.e., as k ? ?), the bias and variance of d?(?),f p are     1 E d?(?),f p ? d(?) = O , k2 !   2   ?(1 ? 2?? )?(2?? ?) sin (??? ?) 1 2 1 1 ? ? Var d(?),f p = d(?) . 2 2 ? 1 + O 2 ? ? ? ? k ??2 k ?(1 ? ? )?(? ?) sin 2 ? ? ? (14) (15) P 1/?? k ?? ? Note that in calculating d?(?),f p , the real computation only involves , because j=1 |xj | all other terms are basically constants and can be pre-computed. 3.2 1.5 1.9 3 1.95 1.2 2.8 2.6 1.999 1 2.4 2.2 0.8 2 2 0.5 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.3 1.2 2e?16 1 ?1 ?.8 ?.6 ?.4 ?.2 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 ? ?opt Variance factor Figure 1(a) plots g (?; ?) as a function of ? for many different values of ?. Figure 1(b) plots the optimal ?? as a function of ?. We can see that g (?; ?) is a convex function of ? and ?1 < ?? < 12 (except for ? = 2), which will be proved in Lemma 3. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 ?0.1 ?0.2 ?0.3 ?0.4 ?0.5 ?0.6 ?0.7 ?0.8 ?0.9 ?1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 ? Figure 1: Left panel plots the variance factor g (?; ?) as functions of ? for different ?, illustrating g (?; ?) is a convex function of ? and the optimal solution (lowest points on the curves) are between -1 and 0.5 (? < 2). Note that there is a discontinuity between ? ? 2? and ? = 2. Right panel plots the optimal ?? as a function of ?. Since ? = 2 is not included, we only see ?? < 0.5 in the figure. 3.1 Special cases  The discontinuity, ?? (2?) = 0.5 and ?? (2) = 1, reflects the fact that, for x ? S(?, d), E |x|? exists for ?1 < ? < ? when ? < 2 and exists for any ? > ?1 when ? = 2. P When ? = 2, since ?? (2) = 1, the fractional power estimator becomes k1 kj=1 |xj |2 , i.e., the arithmetic mean estimator. We will from now on only consider 0 < ? < 2. when ? ? 0+, since ?? (0+) = ?1, the fractional power estimator approaches the harmonic mean estimator, which is asymptotically optimal when ? = 0+ [13]. When ? ? 1, since ?? (1) = 0 in the limit, the fractional power estimator has the same asymptotic variance as the geometric mean estimator. 3.2 The Asymptotic (Cram?er-Rao) Efficiency For an estimator d?(?) , its variance, under certain regularity condition, is lower-bounded  bythe Information inequality (also known as the Cram?er-Rao bound) [11, Chapter 2], i.e., Var d?(?) ? 1 . kI(?) The Fisher Information I(?) can be approximated by computationally intensive procedures [19]. When ? = 2, it is well-known that the arithmetic mean estimator attains the Cram?er-Rao bound. When ? = 0+, [13] has shown that the harmonic mean estimator is also asymptotically optimal. Therefore, our fractional power estimator achieves the Cram?er-Rao bound, exactly when ? = 2, and asymptotically when ? = 0+. 1 to the asymptotic variance of The asymptotic (Cram?er-Rao) efficiency is defined as the ratio of kI(?) ? d(?) (d(?) = 1 for simplicity). Figure 2 plots the efficiencies for all estimators we have mentioned, illustrating that the fractional power estimator is near-optimal in a wide range of ?. 1 Efficiency 0.9 0.8 0.7 Fractional Geometric Harmonic Median 0.6 0.5 0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 ? Figure 2: The asymptotic Cram?er-Rao efficiencies of various estimators for 0 < ? < 2, which are 1 to the asymptotic variances of the estimators. Here k is the sample size and I(?) is the ratios of kI(?) the Fisher Information (we use the numeric values in [19]). The asymptotic variance of the sample median estimator d?(?),me is computed from known statistical theory for sample quantiles. We can see that the fractional power estimator d?(?),f p is close to be optimal in a wide range of ?; and it always outperforms both the geometric mean and the harmonic mean estimators. Note that since we only consider ? < 2, the efficiency of d?(?),f p does not achieve 100% when ? ? 2?. 3.3 Theoretical Properties We can show that, when computing the fractional power estimator d?(?),f p , to find the optimal ?? only involves searching for the minimum on a convex curve in the narrow range ?? ?  1 max ?1, ? 2? , 0.5 . These properties theoretically ensure that the new estimator is well-defined and is numerically easy to compute. The proof of Lemma 3 is briefly sketched ! in Appendix B. 2 ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???) 1 ? Lemma 3 Part 1: g (?; ?) = (16) 2 2 ? 1 , ?2 ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin ? ?? ? 2 is a convex function of ?. Part 2: For 0 < ? < 2, the optimal ?? = argmin g (?; ?), satisfies ?1 < ?? < 0.5. 1 ? 2? ?< 12 3.4 Comparing Variances at Finite Samples It is also important to understand the small sample performance of the estimators. Figure 3 plots the empirical mean square errors (MSE) from simulations for the fractional power estimator, the harmonic mean estimator, and the sample median estimator. The MSE for the geometric mean estimators can be computed exactly without simulations. Figure 3 indicates that the fractional power estimator d?(?),f p also has good small sample performance unless ? is close to 2. After k ? 50, the advantage of d?(?),f p becomes noticeable even when ? is very close to 2. It is also clear that the sample median estimator has poor small sample performance; but even at very large k, its performance is not that good except when ? is about 1. 0.6 k = 10 0.5 0.4 0.3 Fractional Geometric Harmonic Median 0.2 0.1 Mean square error (MSE) Mean square error (MSE) 0.7 0.06 0.05 k = 100 0.04 0.03 Fractional Geometric Harmonic Median 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 ? 0.1 k = 50 0.08 0.06 Fractional Geometric Harmonic Median 0.04 0.02 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 ? ? Mean square error (MSE) Mean square error (MSE) 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.12 0.0109 0.01 k = 500 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 Fractional 0.003 Geometric 0.002 Harmonic 0.001 Median 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 ? Figure 3: We simulate the mean square errors (MSE) (106 simulations at every ? and k) for the harmonic mean estimator (0 < ? ? 0.344 only) and the fractional power estimator. We compute the MSE exactly for the geometric mean estimator (for 0.344? < 2). The fractional power has good accuracy (small MSE) at reasonable sample sizes (e.g., k ? 50). But even at small samples (e.g., k = 10), it is quite accurate except when ? approaches 2. 4 Discussion P 1/?? k ?? ? The fractional power estimator d?(?),f p ? |x | can be treated as a linear estimator j j=1 Pk ? ? in because the power 1/? is just a constant. However, j=1 |xj |? ? is not a metric because ?? ? < 1, as shown in Lemma 3. Thus our result does not conflict the celebrated impossibility result [3], which proved that there is no hope to recover the original l1 distances using linear projections and linear estimators without incurring large errors. Although the fractional power estimator achieves near-optimal asymptotic variance, analyzing its tail bounds does not appear straightforward. In fact, when ? approaches 2, this estimator does not have finite moments much higher than the second order, suggesting poor tail behavior. Our additional simulations (not included in this paper) indicate that d?(?),f p still has comparable tail probability behavior as the geometric mean estimator, when ? ? 1. Finally, we should mention that the method of stable random projections does not take advantage of the data sparsity while high-dimensional data (e.g., text data) are often highly sparse. A new method call Conditional Random Sampling (CRS) [14?16] may be more preferable in highly sparse data. 5 Conclusion In massive datasets such as the Web and massive data streams, dimension reductions are often critical for many applications including clustering, classifications, recommendation systems, and Web search, because the data size may be too large for the physical memory or even for the hard disk and sometimes only one pass of the data can be afforded for building statistical learning models. While there are already many papers on dimension reductions in the l2 norm, this paper focuses on the l? norm for 0 < ? ? 2 using stable random projections, as it has become increasingly popular in machine learning to consider the l? norm other than l2 . It is also possible to treat ? as an additional tuning parameter and re-run the learning algorithms many times for better performance. Our main contribution is the fractional power estimator for stable random projections. This estimator, with a unified format for all 0 < ? ? 2, is computationally efficient and (surprisingly) is also near-optimal in terms of the asymptotic variance. We also prove some important theoretical properties (variance, convexity, etc.) to show that this estimator is well-behaved. We expect that this work will help advance the state-of-the-art of dimension reductions in the l? norms. A Proof of Lemma 2 ? (?),? , By Lemma 1, we first seek an unbiased estimator of of d?(?) , denoted by R ? (?),? = 1 R k Pk j=1 2 ? ?(1 |xj |?? ? ?)?(??) sin , whose variance is   d2? ? (?),? = (?) Var R k ?1/? < ? < 1 ? 2 ?? ! ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???) ? 1 ,  2 ? ? ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin 2 ?? 2  ?2 ? 1 1 <?< 2? 2 1/?  ? (?),? A biased estimator of d(?) would be simply R , which has O k1 bias. This bias can be removed to an extent by Taylor expansions [11, Theorem 6.1.1]. While it is well-known that bias-corrections are not always beneficial because of the bias-variance trade-off phenomenon, in our case, it is a good idea to conduct the bias-correction because the function f (x) = x1/? is convex for 1 1 1 1/??2 x > 0. Note that f ? (x) = ?1 x1/??1 and f ?? (x) > 0, assuming ? 2? < ? < 21 .  = ? ? ?1 x 1 Because f (x) is convex, removing the O k bias will also lead to a smaller variance.  We call this new estimator the ?fractional power? estimator:     ? (?),?  1/??2 Var R 1 1 ? ?1 d(?) ? 2 ? ? ! 1/? !! Pk   ?? 2 1 1 1 1 j=1 |xj | ? ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???)  1 ? ? 1 ? 1 ,   2 2 2 ? k ? k 2? ? ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin ? 2 ?? ? ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin 2 ?? d?(?),f p,? = =  ? (?),? R  1/? where we plug in the estimated d?(?) . The asymptotic variance would be      1   1/??1  2 1 ? (?),? d? +O Var d?(?),f p,? = Var R (?) 2 ? k = d2(?) 1 ?2 k The optimal ?, denoted by ?? , is then ( ? ? = argmin 1 ?< 1 ? 2? 2 1 ?2 !   ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???) 1 . ? 1 +O  2 2 ? k ? ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin 2 ?? 2  ?2 2 ?(1 ? 2?)?(2??) sin (???) ?2 2 ?(1 ? ?)?(??) sin ?2 ?? ? !) ?1 . B Proof of Lemma 3 We sketch the basic steps; and we direct readers to the additional supporting material for more detail. We use the infinite-product representations of the Gamma and sine functions [8, 8.322,1.431.1], ?(z) =    ?  exp (??e z) Y z ?1 z 1+ exp , z s s s=1 sin(z) = z ? Y 1? s=1 z2 s2 ? 2 ! , to re-write g (?; ?) as g(?; ?) = 1 1 (M (?; ?) ? 1) = 2 ?2 ? fs (?; ?) =  1? ? s 2  1+ 2?? s ? Y ! fs (?; ?) ? 1 s=1  ?1  1? ?? s  1+ , ?? s 3 1? ?2 ?2 4s2 ! ?2  1? 2? s With respect to ?, the first two derivatives of g(?; ?) are 1 ?g = 2 ?? ? ?2 g M = 2 ??2 ? ? ? X 2 ? log fs (M ? 1) + M ? ?? s=1 X ? 2 log fs 6 + + 2 ? ??2 s=1 ? ! . ? X ? log fs ?? s=1 !2 ? ? 4 X ? log fs ? s=1 ?? ! ? 6 . ?4  ?1 . Also,   ? ? X X 1 2 1 1 ? log fs = 2? + ?2 + 2 ? 2 , 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ?? s ? 3s? + 2? 4s ? ? ? s + 3s?? + 2? ? s ?? ? s=1 s=1 ? ? X X ? 2 log fs ?2 4 2?2 ?2 3?2 4?2 2?2 = + + ? ? + + 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ?? (s ? ?) (s ? 2?) (2s ? ??) (s ? ??) (s + ??) (s + 2??) (2s + ??)2 s=1 s=1 ? X ? 3 log fs ??3 s=1 = ? X 16 4 + + 2?3 (s ? ?)3 (s ? 2?)3 ? X ?12 96 4 + + 6? (s ? ?)4 (s ? 2?)4 s=1  2 1 3 8 2 ? + ? ? (2s ? ??)3 (s ? ??)3 (s + ??)3 (s + 2??)3 (2s + ??)3  ,  2 1 3 16 2 ? ? + + (2s ? ??)4 (s ? ??)4 (s + ??)4 (s + 2??)4 (2s + ??)4  . ? X ? 4 log fs ??4 s=1 = s=1 ?2g ??2 2 ? g > 0, it suffices to show ?4 ?? 2 > 0, which can shown based on its own second derivaP? ? 4 log fs tive (and hence we need s=1 ??4 ). Here we consider ? 6= 0 to avoid triviality. To complete the proof, we use some properties of the Riemann?s Zeta function and the infinite countability. = 0, which is equivalent to h(?? ) = 1, Next, we show that ?? < ?1 does not satisfy ?g(?;?) ?? To show h(?? ) = M(?? ) ?? ? ?? X ? log fs 1? 2 s=1 ?? ?? ! = 1, ?h We show that when ? < ?1, ?? > 0, i.e., h(?) < h(?1). We then show ?h(?1) < 0 for ?? 0 < ? < 0.5; and hence h(?1; ?) < h(?1; 0+) = 1. Therefore, we must have ?? > ?1. References [1] C. Aggarwal, editor. Data Streams: Models and Algorithms. Springer, New York, NY, 2007. [2] B. Babcock, S. Babu, M. Datar, R. Motwani, and J. Widom. Models and issues in data stream systems. In PODS, 1?16, 2002. [3] B. Brinkman and M. Charikar. On the impossibility of dimension reduction in l1 . Journal of ACM, 52(2):766?788, 2005. [4] O. Chapelle, P. Haffner, and V. Vapnik. Support vector machines for histogram-based image classification. IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, 10(5):1055?1064, 1999. [5] G. Cormode, M. Datar, P. Indyk, and S. Muthukrishnan. Comparing data streams using hamming norms (how to zero in). In VLDB, 335?345, 2002. [6] D. Donoho. Compressed sensing. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 52(4):1289?1306, 2006. [7] E. Fama and R. Roll. Parameter estimates for symmetric stable distributions. JASA, 66(334):331?338, 1971. [8] I. Gradshteyn and I. Ryzhik. Table of Integrals, Series, and Products. Academic Press, New York, fifth edition, 1994. [9] P. Indyk. Stable distributions, pseudorandom generators, embeddings, and data stream computation. Journal of ACM, 53(3):307?323, 2006. [10] W. Johnson and J. Lindenstrauss. Extensions of Lipschitz mapping into Hilbert space. Contemporary Mathematics, 26:189?206, 1984. [11] E. Lehmann and G. Casella. Theory of Point Estimation. Springer, New York, NY, second edition, 1998. [12] E. Leopold and J. Kindermann. Text categorization with support vector machines. how to represent texts in input space? Machine Learning, 46(1-3):423?444, 2002. [13] P. Li. Estimators and tail bounds for dimension reduction in l? (0 < ? ? 2) using stable random projections. In SODA, 2008. [14] P. Li and K. Church. Using sketches to estimate associations. In HLT/EMNLP, 708?715, 2005. [15] P. Li and K. Church. A sketch algorithm for estimating two-way and multi-way associations. Computational Linguistics, 33(3):305?354, 2007. [16] P. Li, K. Church, and T. Hastie. Conditional random sampling: A sketch-based sampling technique for sparse data. In NIPS, 873?880, 2007. [17] P. Li, T. Hastie, and K. Church. Improving random projections using marginal information. In COLT, 635?649, 2006. [18] P. Li, T. Hastie, and K. Church. Nonlinear estimators and tail bounds for dimensional reduction in l1 using cauchy random projections. Journal of Machine Learning Research (To appear) . [19] M. Matsui and A. Takemura. Some improvements in numerical evaluation of symmetric stable density and its derivatives. Communications on Statistics-Theory and Methods, 35(1):149?172, 2006. [20] J. McCulloch. Simple consistent estimators of stable distribution parameters. Communications on Statistics-Simulation, 15(4):1109? 1136, 1986. [21] J. Rennie, L. Shih, J. Teevan, and D. Karger. Tackling the poor assumptions of naive Bayes text classifiers. In ICML, 616?623, 2003. [22] S. Vempala. The Random Projection Method. American Mathematical Society, Providence, RI, 2004. [23] J. Zhu, S. Rosset, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. 1-norm support vector machines. In NIPS, Vancouver, 2003. [24] V. M. Zolotarev. One-dimensional Stable Distributions. American Mathematical Society, Providence, RI, 1986.
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People Tracking with the Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model Zhengdong Lu CSEE, OGI, OHSU ? Carreira-Perpin? ? an Miguel A. EECS, UC Merced Cristian Sminchisescu University of Bonn [email protected] http://eecs.ucmerced.edu sminchisescu.ins.uni-bonn.de Abstract Reliably recovering 3D human pose from monocular video requires models that bias the estimates towards typical human poses and motions. We construct priors for people tracking using the Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model (LELVM). LELVM is a recently introduced probabilistic dimensionality reduction model that combines the advantages of latent variable models?a multimodal probability density for latent and observed variables, and globally differentiable nonlinear mappings for reconstruction and dimensionality reduction?with those of spectral manifold learning methods?no local optima, ability to unfold highly nonlinear manifolds, and good practical scaling to latent spaces of high dimension. LELVM is computationally efficient, simple to learn from sparse training data, and compatible with standard probabilistic trackers such as particle filters. We analyze the performance of a LELVM-based probabilistic sigma point mixture tracker in several real and synthetic human motion sequences and demonstrate that LELVM not only provides sufficient constraints for robust operation in the presence of missing, noisy and ambiguous image measurements, but also compares favorably with alternative trackers based on PCA or GPLVM priors. Recent research in reconstructing articulated human motion has focused on methods that can exploit available prior knowledge on typical human poses or motions in an attempt to build more reliable algorithms. The high-dimensionality of human ambient pose space?between 30-60 joint angles or joint positions depending on the desired accuracy level, makes exhaustive search prohibitively expensive. This has negative impact on existing trackers, which are often not sufficiently reliable at reconstructing human-like poses, self-initializing or recovering from failure. Such difficulties have stimulated research in algorithms and models that reduce the effective working space, either using generic search focusing methods (annealing, state space decomposition, covariance scaling) or by exploiting specific problem structure (e.g. kinematic jumps). Experience with these procedures has nevertheless shown that any search strategy, no matter how effective, can be made significantly more reliable if restricted to low-dimensional state spaces. This permits a more thorough exploration of the typical solution space, for a given, comparatively similar computational effort as a high-dimensional method. The argument correlates well with the belief that the human pose space, although high-dimensional in its natural ambient parameterization, has a significantly lower perceptual (latent or intrinsic) dimensionality, at least in a practical sense?many poses that are possible are so improbable in many real-world situations that it pays off to encode them with low accuracy. A perceptual representation has to be powerful enough to capture the diversity of human poses in a sufficiently broad domain of applicability (the task domain), yet compact and analytically tractable for search and optimization. This justifies the use of models that are nonlinear and low-dimensional (able to unfold highly nonlinear manifolds with low distortion), yet probabilistically motivated and globally continuous for efficient optimization. Reducing dimensionality is not the only goal: perceptual representations have to preserve critical properties of the ambient space. Reliable tracking needs locality: nearby regions in ambient space have to be mapped to nearby regions in latent space. If this does not hold, the tracker is forced to make unrealistically large, and difficult to predict jumps in latent space in order to follow smooth trajectories in the joint angle ambient space. 1 In this paper we propose to model priors for articulated motion using a recently introduced probabilistic dimensionality reduction method, the Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model (LELVM) [1]. Section 1 discusses the requirements of priors for articulated motion in the context of probabilistic and spectral methods for manifold learning, and section 2 describes LELVM and shows how it combines both types of methods in a principled way. Section 3 describes our tracking framework (using a particle filter) and section 4 shows experiments with synthetic and real human motion sequences using LELVM priors learned from motion-capture data. Related work: There is significant work in human tracking, using both generative and discriminative methods. Due to space limitations, we will focus on the more restricted class of 3D generative algorithms based on learned state priors, and not aim at a full literature review. Deriving compact prior representations for tracking people or other articulated objects is an active research field, steadily growing with the increased availability of human motion capture data. Howe et al. and Sidenbladh et al. [2] propose Gaussian mixture representations of short human motion fragments (snippets) and integrate them in a Bayesian MAP estimation framework that uses 2D human joint measurements, independently tracked by scaled prismatic models [3]. Brand [4] models the human pose manifold using a Gaussian mixture and uses an HMM to infer the mixture component index based on a temporal sequence of human silhouettes. Sidenbladh et al. [5] use similar dynamic priors and exploit ideas in texture synthesis?efficient nearest-neighbor search for similar motion fragments at runtime?in order to build a particle-filter tracker with observation model based on contour and image intensity measurements. Sminchisescu and Jepson [6] propose a low-dimensional probabilistic model based on fitting a parametric reconstruction mapping (sparse radial basis function) and a parametric latent density (Gaussian mixture) to the embedding produced with a spectral method. They track humans walking and involved in conversations using a Bayesian multiple hypotheses framework that fuses contour and intensity measurements. Urtasun et al. [7] use a dynamic MAP estimation framework based on a GPLVM and 2D human joint correspondences obtained from an independent image-based tracker. Li et al. [8] use a coordinated mixture of factor analyzers within a particle filtering framework, in order to reconstruct human motion in multiple views using chamfer matching to score different configuration. Wang et al. [9] learn a latent space with associated dynamics where both the dynamics and observation mapping are Gaussian processes, and Urtasun et al. [10] use it for tracking. Taylor et al. [11] also learn a binary latent space with dynamics (using an energy-based model) but apply it to synthesis, not tracking. Our work learns a static, generative low-dimensional model of poses and integrates it into a particle filter for tracking. We show its ability to work with real or partially missing data and to track multiple activities. 1 Priors for articulated human pose We consider the problem of learning a probabilistic low-dimensional model of human articulated motion. Call y ? RD the representation in ambient space of the articulated pose of a person. In this paper, y contains the 3D locations of anywhere between 10 and 60 markers located on the person?s joints (other representations such as joint angles are also possible). The values of y have been normalised for translation and rotation in order to remove rigid motion and leave only the articulated motion (see section 3 for how we track the rigid motion). While y is high-dimensional, the motion pattern lives in a low-dimensional manifold because most values of y yield poses that violate body constraints or are simply atypical for the motion type considered. Thus we want to model y in terms of a small number of latent variables x given a collection of poses {yn }N n=1 (recorded from a human with motion-capture technology). The model should satisfy the following: (1) It should define a probability density for x and y, to be able to deal with noise (in the image or marker measurements) and uncertainty (from missing data due to occlusion or markers that drop), and to allow integration in a sequential Bayesian estimation framework. The density model should also be flexible enough to represent multimodal densities. (2) It should define mappings for dimensionality reduction F : y ? x and reconstruction f : x ? y that apply to any value of x and y (not just those in the training set); and such mappings should be defined on a global coordinate system, be continuous (to avoid physically impossible discontinuities) and differentiable (to allow efficient optimisation when tracking), yet flexible enough to represent the highly nonlinear manifold of articulated poses. From a statistical machine learning point of view, this is precisely what latent variable models (LVMs) do; for example, factor analysis defines linear mappings and Gaussian densities, while the generative topographic mapping (GTM; [12]) defines nonlinear mappings and a Gaussian-mixture density in ambient space. However, factor analysis is too limited to be of practical use, and GTM? 2 while flexible?has two important practical problems: (1) the latent space must be discretised to allow tractable learning and inference, which limits it to very low (2?3) latent dimensions; (2) the parameter estimation is prone to bad local optima that result in highly distorted mappings. Another dimensionality reduction method recently introduced, GPLVM [13], which uses a Gaussian process mapping f (x), partly improves this situation by defining a tunable parameter xn for each data point yn . While still prone to local optima, this allows the use of a better initialisation for {xn }N n=1 (obtained from a spectral method, see later). This has prompted the application of GPLVM for tracking human motion [7]. However, GPLVM has some disadvantages: its training is very costly (each step of the gradient iteration is cubic on the number of training points N , though approximations based on using few points exist); unlike true LVMs, it defines neither a posterior distribution p(x|y) in latent space nor a dimensionality reduction mapping E {x|y}; and the latent representation it obtains is not ideal. For example, for periodic motions such as running or walking, repeated periods (identical up to small noise) can be mapped apart from each other in latent space because nothing constrains xn and xm to be close even when yn = ym (see fig. 3 and [10]). There exists a different type of dimensionality reduction methods, spectral methods (such as Isomap, LLE or Laplacian eigenmaps [14]), that have advantages and disadvantages complementary to those of LVMs. They define neither mappings nor densities but just a correspondence (xn , yn ) between points in latent space xn and ambient space yn . However, the training is efficient (a sparse eigenvalue problem) and has no local optima, and often yields a correspondence that successfully models highly nonlinear, convoluted manifolds such as the Swiss roll. While these attractive properties have spurred recent research in spectral methods, their lack of mappings and densities has limited their applicability in people tracking. However, a new model that combines the advantages of LVMs and spectral methods in a principled way has been recently proposed [1], which we briefly describe next. 2 The Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model (LELVM) LELVM is based on a natural way of defining an out-of-sample mapping for Laplacian eigenmaps (LE) which, in addition, results in a density model. In LE, typically we first define a k-nearestneighbour graph on the sample data {yn }N n=1 and weigh each edge yn ? ym by a Gaussian affinity 2 function K(yn , ym ) = wnm = exp (? 21 k(yn ? ym )/?k ). Then the latent points X result from:  min tr XLX? s.t. X ? RL?N , XDX? = I, XD1 = 0 (1) where we define the matrix PN XL?N = (x1 , . . . , xN ), the symmetric affinity matrix WN ?N , the degree matrix D = diag ( n=1 wnm ), the graph Laplacian matrix L = D?W, and 1 = (1, . . . , 1)? . The constraints eliminate the two trivial solutions X = 0 (by fixing an arbitrary scale) and x1 = ? ? ? = xN (by removing 1, which is an eigenvector of L associated with a zero eigenvalue). The solution is given by the leading u2 , . . . , uL+1 eigenvectors of the normalised affinity matrix 1 1 1 N = D? 2 WD? 2 , namely X = V? D? 2 with VN ?L = (v2 , . . . , vL+1 ) (an a posteriori translated, rotated or uniformly scaled X is equally valid). Following [1], we now define an out-of-sample mapping F(y) = x for a new point y as a semisupervised learning problem, by recomputing the embedding as in (1) (i.e., augmenting the graph Laplacian with the new point), but keeping the fixed:   old embedding  L K(y) X? min tr ( X x ) K(y)? 1? K(y) (2) x? x?RL 2 where Kn (y) = K(y, yn ) = exp (? 12 k(y ? yn )/?k ) for n = 1, . . . , N is the kernel induced by the Gaussian affinity (applied only to the k nearest neighbours of y, i.e., Kn (y) = 0 if y ? yn ). This is one natural way of adding a new point to the embedding by keeping existing embedded points fixed. We need not use the constraints from (1) because they would trivially determine x, and the uninteresting solutions X = 0 and X = constant were already removed in the old embedding anyway. The solution yields an out-of-sample dimensionality reduction mapping x = F(y): PN n) = n=1 PN K(y,y x (3) x = F(y) = 1X?K(y) K(y) K(y,y ? ) n n? =1 n applicable to any point y (new or old). This mapping is formally identical to a Nadaraya-Watson estimator (kernel regression; [15]) using as data {(xn , yn )}N n=1 and the kernel K. We can take this a step further by defining a LVM that has as joint distribution a kernel density estimate (KDE): PN PN PN p(x, y) = N1 n=1 Ky (y, yn )Kx (x, xn ) p(y) = N1 n=1 Ky (y, yn ) p(x) = N1 n=1 Kx (x, xn ) 3 where Ky is proportional to K so it integrates to 1, and Kx is a pdf kernel in x?space. Consequently, the marginals in observed and latent space are also KDEs, and the dimensionality reduction and reconstruction mappings are given by kernel regression (the conditional means E {y|x}, E {x|y}): PN PN PN n) F(y) = n=1 p(n|y)xn f (x) = n=1 PN Kx (x,x y = n=1 p(n|x)yn . (4) K (x,x ? ) n n? =1 x n We allow the bandwidths to be different in the latent and ambient spaces: 2 2 Kx (x, xn ) ? exp (? 12 k(x ? xn )/?x k ) and Ky (y, yn ) ? exp (? 21 k(y ? yn )/?y k ). They may be tuned to control the smoothness of the mappings and densities [1]. Thus, LELVM naturally extends a LE embedding (efficiently obtained as a sparse eigenvalue problem with a cost O(N 2 )) to global, continuous, differentiable mappings (NW estimators) and potentially multimodal densities having the form of a Gaussian KDE. This allows easy computation of posterior probabilities such as p(x|y) (unlike GPLVM). It can use a continuous latent space of arbitrary dimension L (unlike GTM) by simply choosing L eigenvectors in the LE embedding. It has no local optima since it is based on the LE embedding. LELVM can learn convoluted mappings (e.g. the Swiss roll) and define maps and densities for them [1]. The only parameters to set are the graph parameters (number of neighbours k, affinity width ?) and the smoothing bandwidths ?x , ?y . 3 Tracking framework We follow the sequential Bayesian estimation framework, where for state variables s and observation variables z we have the recursive prediction and correction equations: R p(st |z0:t?1 ) = p(st |st?1 ) p(st?1 |z0:t?1 ) dst?1 p(st |z0:t ) ? p(zt |st ) p(st |z0:t?1 ). (5) We define the state variables as s = (x, d) where x ? RL is the low-dim. latent space (for pose) and d ? R3 is the centre-of-mass location of the body (in the experiments our state also includes the orientation of the body, but for simplicity here we describe only the translation). The observed variables z consist of image features or the perspective projection of the markers on the camera plane. The mapping from state to observations is (for the markers? case, assuming M markers): P f x ? RL ????? y ? R3M ??? ? ?????? z ? R2M d ? R3 (6) where f is the LELVM reconstruction mapping (learnt from mocap data); ? shifts each 3D marker by d; and P is the perspective projection (pinhole camera), applied to each 3D point separately. Here we use a simple observation model p(zt |st ): Gaussian with mean given by the transformation (6) and isotropic covariance (set by the user to control the influence of measurements in the tracking). We assume known correspondences and observations that are obtained either from the 3D markers (for tracking synthetic data) or 2D tracks obtained from a 2D tracker. Our dynamics model is p(st |st?1 ) ? pd (dt |dt?1 ) px (xt |xt?1 ) p(xt ) (7) where both dynamics models for d and x are random walks: Gaussians centred at the previous step value dt?1 and xt?1 , respectively, with isotropic covariance (set by the user to control the influence of dynamics in the tracking); and p(xt ) is the LELVM prior. Thus the overall dynamics predicts states that are both near the previous state and yield feasible poses. Of course, more complex dynamics models could be used if e.g. the speed and direction of movement are known. As tracker we use the Gaussian mixture Sigma-point particle filter (GMSPPF) [16]. This is a particle filter that uses a Gaussian mixture representation for the posterior distribution in state space and updates it with a Sigma-point Kalman filter. This Gaussian mixture will be used as proposal distribution to draw the particles. As in other particle filter implementations, the prediction step is carried out by approximating the integral (5) with particles and updating the particles? weights. Then, a new Gaussian mixture is fitted with a weighted EM algorithm to these particles. This replaces the resampling stage needed by many particle filters and mitigates the problem of sample depletion while also preventing the number of components in the Gaussian mixture from growing over time. The choice of this particular tracker is not critical; we use it to illustrate the fact that LELVM can be introduced in any probabilistic tracker for nonlinear, nongaussian models. Given the corrected distribution p(st |z0:t ), we choose its mean as recovered state (pose and location). It is also possible to choose instead the mode closest to the state at t ? 1, which could be found by mean-shift or Newton algorithms [17] since we are using a Gaussian-mixture representation in state space. 4 4 Experiments We demonstrate our low-dimensional tracker on image sequences of people walking and running, both synthetic (fig. 1) and real (fig. 2?3). Fig. 1 shows the model copes well with persistent partial occlusion and severely subsampled training data (A,B), and quantitatively evaluates temporal reconstruction (C). For all our experiments, the LELVM parameters (number of neighbors k, Gaussian affinity ?, and bandwidths ?x and ?y ) were set manually. We mainly considered 2D latent spaces (for pose, plus 6D for rigid motion), which were expressive enough for our experiments. More complex, higher-dimensional models are straightforward to construct. The initial state distribution p(s0 ) was chosen a broad Gaussian, the dynamics and observation covariance were set manually to control the tracking smoothness, and the GMSPPF tracker used a 5-component Gaussian mixture in latent space (and in the state space of rigid motion) and a small set of 500 particles. The 3D representation we use is a 102-D vector obtained by concatenating the 3D markers coordinates of all the body joints. These would be highly unconstrained if estimated independently, but we only use them as intermediate representation; tracking actually occurs in the latent space, tightly controlled using the LELVM prior. For the synthetic experiments and some of the real experiments (figs. 2?3) the camera parameters and the body proportions were known (for the latter, we used the 2D outputs of [6]). For the CMU mocap video (fig. 2B) we roughly guessed. We used mocap data from several sources (CMU, OSU). As observations we always use 2D marker positions, which, depending on the analyzed sequence were either known (the synthetic case), or provided by an existing tracker [6] or specified manually (fig. 2B). Alternatively 2D point trackers similar to the ones of [7] can be used. The forward generative model is obtained by combining the latent to ambient space mapping (this provides the position of the 3D markers) with a perspective projection transformation. The observation model is a product of Gaussians, each measuring the probability of a particular marker position given its corresponding image point track. Experiments with synthetic data: we analyze the performance of our tracker in controlled conditions (noise perturbed synthetically generated image tracks) both under regular circumstances (reasonable sampling of training data) and more severe conditions with subsampled training points and persistent partial occlusion (the man running behind a fence, with many of the 2D marker tracks obstructed). Fig. 1B,C shows both the posterior (filtered) latent space distribution obtained from our tracker, and its mean (we do not show the distribution of the global rigid body motion; in all experiments this is tracked with good accuracy). In the latent space plot shown in fig. 1B, the onset of running (two cycles were used) appears as a separate region external to the main loop. It does not appear in the subsampled training set in fig. 1B, where only one running cycle was used for training and the onset of running was removed. In each case, one can see that the model is able to track quite competently, with a modest decrease in its temporal accuracy, shown in fig. 1C, where the averages are computed per 3D joint (normalised wrt body height). Subsampling causes some ambiguity in the estimate, e.g. see the bimodality in the right plot in fig. 1C. In another set of experiments (not shown) we also tracked using different subsets of 3D markers. The estimates were accurate even when about 30% of the markers were dropped. Experiments with real images: this shows our tracker?s ability to work with real motions of different people, with different body proportions, not in its latent variable model training set (figs. 2?3). We study walking, running and turns. In all cases, tracking and 3D reconstruction are reasonably accurate. We have also run comparisons against low-dimensional models based on PCA and GPLVM (fig. 3). It is important to note that, for LELVM, errors in the pose estimates are primarily caused by mismatches between the mocap data used to learn the LELVM prior and the body proportions of the person in the video. For example, the body proportions of the OSU motion captured walker are quite different from those of the image in fig. 2?3 (e.g. note how the legs of the stick man are shorter relative to the trunk). Likewise, the style of the runner from the OSU data (e.g. the swinging of the arms) is quite different from that of the video. Finally, the interest points tracked by the 2D tracker do not entirely correspond either in number or location to the motion capture markers, and are noisy and sometimes missing. In future work, we plan to include an optimization step to also estimate the body proportions. This would be complicated for a general, unconstrained model because the dimensions of the body couple with the pose, so either one or the other can be changed to improve the tracking error (the observation likelihood can also become singular). But for dedicated prior pose models like ours these difficulties should be significantly reduced. 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A: we use 217 datapoints for training LELVM (with added noise) and for tracking. Row 1: tracking in the 2D latent space. The contours (very tight in this sequence) are the posterior probability. Row 2: perspective-projection-based observations with occlusions. Row 3: each quadruplet (a, a? , b, b? ) show the true pose of the running man from a front and side views (a, b), and the reconstructed pose by tracking with our model (a? , b? ). B: we use the first running cycle for training LELVM and the second cycle for tracking. C: RMSE errors for each frame, for the tracking of A (left plot) ?1/2normalised so that 1 equals the PM and B (middle 2plot), 1 ? ky ? y k for all 3D locations of the M height of the stick man. RMSE(n) = M nj nj j=1 ? n with ground-truth stick man yn . Right plot: markers, i.e., comparison of reconstructed stick man y multimodal posterior distribution in pose space for the model of A (frame 42). Comparison with PCA and GPLVM (fig. 3): for these models, the tracker uses the same GMSPPF setting as for LELVM (number of particles, initialisation, random-walk dynamics, etc.) but with the mapping y = f (x) provided by GPLVM or PCA, and with a uniform prior p(x) in latent space (since neither GPLVM nor the non-probabilistic PCA provide one). The LELVM-tracker uses both its f (x) and latent space prior p(x), as discussed. All methods use a 2D latent space. We ensured the best possible training of GPLVM by model selection based on multiple runs. For PCA, the latent space looks deceptively good, showing non-intersecting loops. However, (1) individual loops do not collect together as they should (for LELVM they do); (2) worse still, the mapping from 2D to pose space yields a poor observation model. The reason is that the loop in 102-D pose space is nonlinearly bent and a plane can at best intersect it at a few points, so the tracker often stays put at one of those (typically an ?average? standing position), since leaving it would increase the error a lot. Using more latent dimensions would improve this, but as LELVM shows, this is not necessary. For GPLVM, we found high sensitivity to filter initialisation: the estimates have high variance across runs and are inaccurate ? 80% of the time. When it fails, the GPLVM tracker often freezes in latent space, like PCA. When it does succeed, it produces results that are comparable with LELVM, although somewhat less accurate visually. However, even then GPLVM?s latent space consists of continuous chunks spread apart and offset from each other; GPLVM has no incentive to place nearby two xs mapping to the same y. This effect, combined with the lack of a data-sensitive, realistic latent space density p(x), makes GPLVM jump erratically from chunk to chunk, in contrast with LELVM, which smoothly follows the 1D loop. Some GPLVM problems might be alleviated using higher-order dynamics, but our experiments suggest that such modeling sophistication is less 6 0 0.5 1 n=1 n = 15 n = 29 n = 43 n = 55 n = 69 A 100 100 100 100 100 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?100 ?100 ?100 ?100 ?100 ?100 50 50 40 ?40 ?20 ?50 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 20 ?20 40 n=4 ?40 10 20 ?20 40 50 0 n=9 ?40 ?20 30 40 50 0 n = 14 ?40 20 ?20 40 50 30 20 10 0 0 ?40 ?20 ?30 ?20 ?40 10 20 ?30 ?10 0 ?50 30 50 n = 19 ?50 ?30 ?10 ?50 30 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 10 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?50 ?30 ?10 ?50 20 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 10 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?50 ?30 ?10 ?50 30 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 0 50 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?50 ?30 ?10 ?50 30 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 10 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?50 100 40 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 50 n = 24 40 50 n = 29 B 20 20 20 20 20 40 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 100 100 100 100 100 100 120 120 120 120 120 120 140 140 140 140 140 140 160 160 160 160 160 160 180 180 180 180 180 200 200 200 200 200 220 220 220 220 220 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 20 40 60 180 200 220 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 100 150 100 100 100 100 100 100 50 50 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?50 ?100 ?100 ?100 ?100 ?100 50 50 40 ?20 ?50 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 40 ?40 ?20 ?50 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 40 ?40 ?20 ?50 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 ?20 30 40 50 0 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 40 50 300 350 50 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 ?50 ?30 ?10 ?50 20 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 ?40 10 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 50 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 50 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?20 ?30 50 40 30 20 10 0 ?10 ?40 250 0 ?50 ?100 ?50 200 ?40 ?20 ?30 ?20 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 40 50 ?10 ?50 ?40 ?20 ?30 ?20 ?30 ?10 0 ?40 10 20 ?50 30 40 50 Figure 2: A: tracking of a video from [6] (turning & walking). We use 220 datapoints (3 full walking cycles) for training LELVM. Row 1: tracking in the 2D latent space. The contours are the estimated posterior probability. Row 2: tracking based on markers. The red dots are the 2D tracks and the green stick man is the 3D reconstruction obtained using our model. Row 3: our 3D reconstruction from a different viewpoint. B: tracking of a person running straight towards the camera. Notice the scale changes and possible forward-backward ambiguities in the 3D estimates. We train the LELVM using 180 datapoints (2.5 running cycles); 2D tracks were obtained by manually marking the video. In both A?B the mocap training data was for a person different from the video?s (with different body proportions and motions), and no ground-truth estimate was available for favourable initialisation. LELVM GPLVM PCA tracking in latent space tracking in latent space tracking in latent space 2.5 0.02 30 38 2 38 0.99 0.015 20 1.5 38 0.01 1 10 0.005 0.5 0 0 0 ?0.005 ?0.5 ?10 ?0.01 ?1 ?0.015 ?1.5 ?20 ?0.02 ?0.025 ?0.025 ?2 ?0.02 ?0.015 ?0.01 ?0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 ?2.5 ?2 ?1 0 1 2 3 ?30 ?80 ?60 ?40 ?20 0 20 40 60 80 Figure 3: Method comparison, frame 38. PCA and GPLVM map consecutive walking cycles to spatially distinct latent space regions. Compounded by a data independent latent prior, the resulting tracker gets easily confused: it jumps across loops and/or remains put, trapped in local optima. In contrast, LELVM is stable and follows tightly a 1D manifold (see videos). crucial if locality constraints are correctly modeled (as in LELVM). We conclude that, compared to LELVM, GPLVM is significantly less robust for tracking, has much higher training overhead and lacks some operations (e.g. computing latent conditionals based on partly missing ambient data). 7 5 Conclusion and future work We have proposed the use of priors based on the Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model (LELVM) for people tracking. LELVM is a probabilistic dim. red. method that combines the advantages of latent variable models and spectral manifold learning algorithms: a multimodal probability density over latent and ambient variables, globally differentiable nonlinear mappings for reconstruction and dimensionality reduction, no local optima, ability to unfold highly nonlinear manifolds, and good practical scaling to latent spaces of high dimension. LELVM is computationally efficient, simple to learn from sparse training data, and compatible with standard probabilistic trackers such as particle filters. Our results using a LELVM-based probabilistic sigma point mixture tracker with several real and synthetic human motion sequences show that LELVM provides sufficient constraints for robust operation in the presence of missing, noisy and ambiguous image measurements. Comparisons with PCA and GPLVM show LELVM is superior in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. The objective of this paper was to demonstrate the ability of the LELVM prior in a simple setting using 2D tracks obtained automatically or manually, and single-type motions (running, walking). Future work will explore more complex observation models such as silhouettes; the combination of different motion types in the same latent space (whose dimension will exceed 2); and the exploration of multimodal posterior distributions in latent space caused by ambiguities. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by NSF CAREER award IIS?0546857 (MACP), NSF IIS?0535140 and EC MCEXT?025481 (CS). CMU data: http://mocap.cs.cmu.edu (created with funding from NSF EIA?0196217). OSU data: http://accad.osu.edu/research/mocap/mocap data.htm. References ? Carreira-Perpi?na? n and Z. Lu. The Laplacian Eigenmaps Latent Variable Model. In AISTATS, 2007. [1] M. A. [2] N. R. Howe, M. E. Leventon, and W. T. Freeman. Bayesian reconstruction of 3D human motion from single-camera video. In NIPS, volume 12, pages 820?826, 2000. [3] T.-J. Cham and J. M. Rehg. A multiple hypothesis approach to figure tracking. In CVPR, 1999. [4] M. Brand. Shadow puppetry. In ICCV, pages 1237?1244, 1999. [5] H. Sidenbladh, M. J. Black, and L. Sigal. Implicit probabilistic models of human motion for synthesis and tracking. In ECCV, volume 1, pages 784?800, 2002. [6] C. Sminchisescu and A. Jepson. Generative modeling for continuous non-linearly embedded visual inference. In ICML, pages 759?766, 2004. [7] R. Urtasun, D. J. Fleet, A. Hertzmann, and P. Fua. Priors for people tracking from small training sets. In ICCV, pages 403?410, 2005. [8] R. Li, M.-H. Yang, S. Sclaroff, and T.-P. Tian. Monocular tracking of 3D human motion with a coordinated mixture of factor analyzers. In ECCV, volume 2, pages 137?150, 2006. [9] J. M. Wang, D. Fleet, and A. Hertzmann. Gaussian process dynamical models. In NIPS, volume 18, 2006. [10] R. Urtasun, D. J. Fleet, and P. Fua. Gaussian process dynamical models for 3D people tracking. In CVPR, pages 238?245, 2006. [11] G. W. Taylor, G. E. Hinton, and S. Roweis. Modeling human motion using binary latent variables. In NIPS, volume 19, 2007. [12] C. M. Bishop, M. Svens?en, and C. K. I. Williams. GTM: The generative topographic mapping. Neural Computation, 10(1):215?234, January 1998. [13] N. Lawrence. Probabilistic non-linear principal component analysis with Gaussian process latent variable models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1783?1816, November 2005. [14] M. Belkin and P. Niyogi. Laplacian eigenmaps for dimensionality reduction and data representation. Neural Computation, 15(6):1373?1396, June 2003. [15] B. W. Silverman. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall, 1986. [16] R. van der Merwe and E. A. Wan. Gaussian mixture sigma-point particle filters for sequential probabilistic inference in dynamic state-space models. In ICASSP, volume 6, pages 701?704, 2003. ? Carreira-Perpi?na? n. Acceleration strategies for Gaussian mean-shift image segmentation. In CVPR, [17] M. A. pages 1160?1167, 2006. 8
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Cluster Stability for Finite Samples Ohad Shamir? and Naftali Tishby?? ? School of Computer Science and Engineering ? Interdisciplinary Center for Neural Computation The Hebrew University Jerusalem 91904, Israel {ohadsh,tishby}@cs.huji.ac.il Abstract Over the past few years, the notion of stability in data clustering has received growing attention as a cluster validation criterion in a sample-based framework. However, recent work has shown that as the sample size increases, any clustering model will usually become asymptotically stable. This led to the conclusion that stability is lacking as a theoretical and practical tool. The discrepancy between this conclusion and the success of stability in practice has remained an open question, which we attempt to address. Our theoretical approach is that stability, as used by cluster validation algorithms, is similar in certain respects to measures of generalization in a model-selection framework. In such cases, the model chosen governs the convergence rate of generalization bounds. By arguing that these rates are more important than the sample size, we are led to the prediction that stability-based cluster validation algorithms should not degrade with increasing sample size, despite the asymptotic universal stability. This prediction is substantiated by a theoretical analysis as well as some empirical results. We conclude that stability remains a meaningful cluster validation criterion over finite samples. 1 Introduction Clustering is one of the most common tools of unsupervised data analysis. Despite its widespread use and an immense amount of literature, distressingly little is known about its theoretical foundations [14]. In this paper, we focus on sample based clustering, where it is assumed that the data to be clustered are actually a sample from some underlying distribution. A major problem in such a setting is assessing cluster validity. In other words, we might wish to know whether the clustering we have found actually corresponds to a meaningful clustering of the underlying distribution, and is not just an artifact of the sampling process. This problem relates to the issue of model selection, such as determining the number of clusters in the data or tuning parameters of the clustering algorithm. In the past few years, cluster stability has received growing attention as a criterion for addressing this problem. Informally, this criterion states that if the clustering algorithm is repeatedly applied over independent samples, resulting in ?similar? clusterings, then these clusterings are statistically significant. Based on this idea, several cluster validity methods have been proposed (see [9] and references therein), and were shown to be relatively successful for various data sets in practice. However, in recent work, it was proven that under mild conditions, stability is asymptotically fully determined by the behavior of the objective function which the clustering algorithm attempts to optimize. In particular, the existence of a unique optimal solution for some model choice implies stability as sample size increase to infinity. This will happen regardless of the model fit to the data. From this, it was concluded that stability is not a well-suited tool for model selection in clustering. This left open, however, the question of why stability is observed to be useful in practice. 1 In this paper, we attempt to explain why stability measures should have much wider relevance than what might be concluded from these results. Our underlying approach is to view stability as a measure of generalization, in a learning-theoretic sense. When we have a ?good? model, which is stable over independent samples, then inferring its fit to the underlying distribution should be easy. In other words, stability should ?work? because stable models generalize better, and models which generalize better should fit the underlying distribution better. We emphasize that this idea in itself is not novel, appearing explicitly and under various guises in many aspects of machine learning. The novelty in this paper lies mainly in the predictions that are drawn from it for clustering stability. The viewpoint above places emphasis on the nature of stability for finite samples. Since generalization is meaningless when the sample is infinite, it should come as no surprise that stability displays similar behavior. On finite samples, the generalization uncertainty is virtually always strictly positive, with different model choices leading to different convergence rates towards zero for increasing sample size. Based on the link between stability and generalization, we predict that on realistic data, all risk-minimizing models asymptotically become stable, but the rates of convergence to this ultimate stability differ. In other words, an appropriate scaling of the stability measures will make them independent of the actual sample size used. Using this intuition, we characterize and prove a mild set of conditions, applicable in principle to a wide class of clustering settings, which ensure the relevance of cluster stability for arbitrarily large sample sizes. We then prove that the stability measure used in previous work to show negative asymptotic results on stability, actually allows us to discern the ?correct? model, regardless of how large is the sample, for a certain simple setting. Our results are further validated by some experiments on synthetic and real world data. 2 Definitions and notation We assume that the data sample to be clustered, S = {x1 , .., xm }, is produced by sampling instances i.i.d from an underlying distribution D, supported on a subset X of Rn . A clustering CD for some D ? X is a function from D ? D to {0, 1}, defining an equivalence relation on D with a finite number of equivalence classes (namely, CD (xi , xj ) = 1 if xi and xj belong to the same cluster, and 0 otherwise). For a clustering CX of the instance space, and a finite sample S, let CX |S denote the functional restriction of CX on S ? S. A clustering algorithm A is a function from any finite sample S ? X , to some clustering CX of the instance space1 . We assume the algorithm is driven by optimizing an objective function, and has some user-defined parameters ?. In particular, Ak denotes the algorithm A with the number of clusters chosen to be k. Following [2], we define the stability of a clustering algorithm A on finite samples of size m as: stab(A, D, m) = ES1 ,S2 dD (A(S1 ), A(S2 )), (1) where S1 and S2 are samples of size m, drawn i.i.d from D, and dD is some ?dissimilarity? function between clusterings of X , to be specified later. Let ` denote a loss function from any clustering CS of a finite set S ? X to [0, 1]. ` may or may not correspond to the objective function the clustering algorithm attempts to optimize, and may involve a global quality measure rather than some average over individual instances. For a fixed sample size, we say that ` obeys the bounded differences property (see [11]), if for any clustering CS it holds that |`(CS ) ? `(CS 0 )| ? a, where a is a constant, and CS 0 is obtained from CS by replacing at most one instance of S by any other instance from X , and clustering it arbitrarily. A hypothesis class H is defined as some set of clusterings of X . The empirical risk of a clustering CX ? H on a sample S of size m is `(CX |S ). The expected risk of CX , with respect to samples S of size m, will be defined as ES `(CX |S ). The problem of generalization is how to estimate the expected risk, based on the empirical data. 1 Many clustering algorithms, such as spectral clustering, do not induce a natural clustering on X based on a clustering of a sample. In that case, we view the algorithm as a two-stage process, in which the clustering of the sample is extended to X through some uniform extension operator (such as assigning instances to the ?nearest? cluster in some appropriate sense). 2 3 A Bayesian framework for relating stability and generalization The relationship between generalization and various notions of stability is long known, but has been dealt with mostly in a supervised learning setting (see [3][5] [8] and references therein). In the context of unsupervised data clustering, several papers have explored the relevance of statistical stability and generalization, separately and together (such as [1][4][14][12]). However, there are not many theoretical results quantitatively characterizing the relationship between the two in this setting. The aim of this section is to informally motivate our approach, of viewing stability and generalization in clustering as closely related. Relating the two is very natural in a Bayesian setting, where clustering stability implies an ?unsurprising? posterior given a prior, which is based on clustering another sample. Under this paradigm, we might consider ?soft clustering? algorithms which return a distribution over a measurable hypothesis class H, rather than a specific clustering. This distribution typically reflects the likelihood of a clustering hypothesis, given the data and prior assumptions. Extending our notation, we have that for any sample S, A(S) is now a distribution over H. The empirical risk of such a distribution, with respect to sample S 0 , is defined as `(A(S)|S 0 ) = ECX ?A(S) `(CX |S 0 ). In this setting, consider for example the following simple procedure to derive a clustering hypothesis distribution, as well as a generalization bound: Given a sample of size 2m drawn i.i.d from D, we randomly split it into two samples S1 ,S2 each of size m, and use A to cluster each of them separately. Then we have the following: Theorem 1. For the procedure defined above, assume ` obeys the bounded differences property with parameter 1/m. Define the clustering distance dD (P, Q) in Eq. (1), between two distributions P,Q over the hypothesis class H, as the Kullback-Leibler divergence DKL [Q||P]2 . Then for a fixed confidence parameter ? ? (0, 1), it holds with probability at least 1 ? ? over the draw of samples S1 and S2 of size m, that r dD (A(S1 ), A(S2 )) + ln(m/?) + 2 . ES `(A(S2 )|S ) ? `(A(S2 )|S2 ) ? 2m ? 1 The theorem is a straightforward variant of the PAC-Bayesian theorem [10]. Since the loss function is not necessarily an empirical average, we need to utilize McDiarmid?s bound for random variables with bounded differences, instead of Hoeffding?s bound. Other than that, the proof is identical, and is therefore ommited. This theorem implies that the more stable is the Bayesian algorithm, the tighter the expected generalization bounds we can achieve. In fact, the ?expected? magnitude of the high-probability bound we will get (over drawing S1 and S2 and performing the procedure described above) is: r r dD (A(S1 ), A(S2 )) + ln(m/?) + 2 ES1 ,S2 dD (A(S1 ), A(S2 )) + ln(m/?) + 2 ? ES1 ,S2 2m ? 1 2m ? 1 r stab(A, D, m) + ln(m/?) + 2 . = 2m ? 1 Note that the only model-dependent quantity in the expression above is stab(A, D, m). Therefore, carrying out model selection by attempting to minimize these types of generalization bounds is closely related to minimizing stab(A, D, m). In general, the generalization bound might converge to 0 as m ? ?, but this is immaterial for the purpose of model selection. The important factor is the relative values of the measure, over different choices of the algorithm parameters ?. In other words, the important quantity is the relative convergence rates of this bound for different choices of ?, governed by stab(A, D, m). This informal discussion only exemplifies the relationship between generalization and stability, since the setting and the definition of dD here differs from the one we will focus on later in the paper. Although these ideas can be generalized, they go beyond the scope of this paper, and we leave it for future work. R Where we define DKL [Q||P] = X Q(X) ln(Q(X)/P(X)), and DKL [q||p] for q, p ? [0, 1] is defined as the divergence of Bernoulli distributions with parameters q and p. 2 3 4 Effective model selection for arbitrarily large sample sizes From now on, following [2], we will define the clustering distance function dD of Eq. (1) as: dD (A(S1 ), A(S2 )) = Pr x1 ,x2 ?D (A(S1 )(x1 , x2 ) 6= A(S2 )(x1 , x2 )) . (2) In other words, the clustering distance is the probability that two independently drawn instances from D will be in the same cluster under one clustering, and in different clusters under another clustering. In [2], it is essentially proven that if there exists a unique optimizer to the clustering algorithm?s objective function, to which the algorithm converges for asymptotically large samples, then stab(A, D, m) converges to 0 as m ? ?, regardless of the parameters of A. From this, it was concluded that using stability as a tool for cluster validity is problematic, since for large enough samples it would always be approximately zero, for any algorithm parameters chosen. However, using the intuition gleaned from the results of the previous section, the different convergence rates of the stability measure (for different algorithm parameters) should be more important than their absolute values or the sample size. The key technical result needed to substantiate this intuition is the following theorem: Theorem 2. Let X, Y be two random variables bounded in [0, 1], and with strictly positive expected values. Assume E[X]/E[Y ] ? 1 + c for some positive constant c. Letting X1 , . . . , Xm and ? = 1 Pm Xi Y1 , . . . , Ym be m identical independent copies of X and Y respectively, define X i=1 m Pm 1 Y . and Y? = m Then it holds that: i i=1 ? ? ? ? ?4 ! ?2 ! c c 1 1 ? ? Y? ) ? exp ? mE[X] Pr(X + exp ? mE[X] . 8 1+c 4 1+c ? Y? are taken to be empirical estimators The importance of this theorem becomes apparent when X, of stab(A, D, m) for two different algorithm parameter sets ?, ?0 . For example, suppose that according to our stability measure (see Eq. (1)), a cluster model with k clusters is more stable than a model with k 0 clusters, where k 6= k 0 , for sample size m (e.g., stab(Ak , D, m) < stab(Ak0 , D, m)). These stability measures might be arbitrarily close to zero. Assume that with high probability over ? the choice of samples S1 and S2 ? of size m, we can show that dD (Ak (S1 ), Ak (S2 )) ? 1/ m, while dD (Ak0 (S1 ), Ak0 (S2 )) ? 1.01/ m. We cannot compute these exactly, since the definition of dD involves an expectation over the unknown distribution D (see Eq. (2)). However, we can estimate them by drawing another sample S3 of m instance pairs, and computing a sample mean to estimate Eq. (2). According to Thm. 2, since dD (Ak (S1 ), Ak (S2 )) and dD (Ak0 (S1 ), Ak0 (S2 )) have slightly different convergence rates (c ? 0.01), which are slower than ?(1/m), then we can discern which number of clusters is more stable, with a high probability which actually improves as m increases. Therefore, we can use Thm. 2 as a guideline for when a stability estimator might be useful for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Namely, we need to show it is an expected value of some random variable, with at least slightly different convergence rates for different model selections, and with at least some of them dominating ?(1/m). We would expect these conditions to hold under quite general settings, since most stability measures are based on empirically estimating the mean of some random variable. Moreover, a central-limit theorem argument leads us to expect an asymptotic form of ? ?(1/ m), with the exact constants dependent on the model. This convergence rate is slow enough for the theorem to apply. The difficult step, however, is showing that the differing convergence rates can be detected empirically, without knowledge of D. In the example above, this reduces to showing that with high probability over S1 and S2 , dD (Ak (S1 ), Ak (S2 )) and dD (Ak0 (S1 ), Ak0 (S2 )) will indeed differ by some constant ratio independent of m. Proof of Thm. 2. Using a relative entropy variant of Hoeffding?s bound [7], we have that for any 1 > b > 0 and 1/E[Y ] > a > 1, it holds that: ? ? ? ? bE[X] ? exp (?m DKL [bE [X] || E [X]]) , Pr X ? ? Pr Y? ? aE[Y ] ? exp (?m DKL [aE [Y ] || E [Y ]]) . 4 By substituting the bound DKL [p||q] ? (p ? q)2 /2 max{p, q} in the two inequalities, we get: ? ? ? ? ? ? bE[X] ? exp ? 1 mE [X] (1 ? b)2 Pr X 2 ? ?? ? ? ? 1 1 , Pr Y? ? aE[Y ] ? exp ? mE [Y ] a + ? 2 2 a (3) (4) 2 which hold whenever 1 > b > 0 and a > 1. Let b = 1 ? (1 ? E[Y ]/E[X]) /2, and a = bE[X]/E[Y ]. It is easily verified that b < 1 and a > 1. Substituting these values into the r.h.s of Eq. (3), and to both sides of Eq. (4), and after some algebra, we get: ? ? ?4 ! c 1 ? ? bE[X]) ? exp ? mE[X] , Pr(X 8 1+c ? ? ?2 ! c 1 ? Pr(Y ? bE[X]) ? exp ? mE[X] . 4 1+c ? ? Y? ) is at most the sum of the r.h.s of the last As a result, by the union bound, we have that Pr(X two inequalities, hence proving the theorem. As a proof of concept, we show that for a certain setting, the stability measure used by [2], as defined above, is meaningful for arbitrarily large sample sizes, even when this measure converges to zero for any choice of the required number of clusters. The result is a simple counter-example to the claim that this phenomenon makes cluster stability a problematic tool. The setting we analyze is a mixture distribution of three well-separated unequal Gaussians in R, where an empirical estimate of stability, using a centroid-based clustering algorithm, is utilized to discern whether the data contain 2, 3 or 4 clusters. We prove that with high probability, this empirical estimation process will discern k = 3 as much more stable than both k = 2 and k = 4 (by an amount depending on the separation between the Gaussians). The result is robust enough to hold even if in addition one performs normalization procedures to account for the fact that higher number of clusters entail more degrees of freedom for the clustering algorithm (see [9]). We emphasize that the simplicity of this setting is merely for the sake of analytical convenience. The proof itself relies on a general and intuitive characteristic of what constitutes a ?wrong? model (namely, having cluster boundaries in areas of high density), rather than any specific feature of this setting. We are currently working on generalizing this result, using a more involved analysis. In this setting, by the results of [2], stab(Ak , D, m) will converge to 0 as m ? ? for k = 2, 3, 4. The next two lemmas, however, show that the stability measure for k = 3 (the ?correct? model order) is smaller than the other two, by a substantial ratio independent of m, and that this will be discerned, with high probability, based on the empirical estimates of dD (Ak (S1 ), Ak (S2 )). The proofs are technical, and appear in the supplementary material to this paper. Lemma 1. For some ? > 0, let D be a Gaussian mixture distribution on R, with density function ? ? 2? ? ? ? (x + ?)2 x (x ? ?)2 1 1 2 + ? exp ? + ? exp ? . p(x) = ? exp ? 2 2 2 3 2? 6 2? 6 2? Assume ? ? 1, so that the Gaussians are well separated. Let Ak be a centroid-based clustering algorithm, which is given a sample and required number of clusters k, and returns a set of k centroids, minimizing the k-means objective function (sum of squared Euclidean distances between each instance and its nearest centroid). Then the following holds, with o(1) signifying factors which converge to 0 as m ? ?: ? ? ?2 0.4 ? o(1) 1 ? o(1) ? ? exp ? , stab(A4 , D, m) ? stab(A2 , D, m) ? 32 7 m m ? 2? ? 1.1 + o(1) ? exp ? . stab(A3 , D, m) ? 8 m 5 Lemma 2. For the setting described in Lemma 1, it holds that over the draw of independent sample pairs (S1 , S2 ), (S10 , S20 ), (S100 , S200 ) (each of size m from D), the ratio between dD (A2 (S10 ), A2 (S20 )) and dD (A3 (S1 ), A3 (S2 )), as well as the ratio between dD (A4 (S100 ), A4 (S200 )) and dD (A3 (S1 ), A3 (S2 )), is larger than 2 with probability of at least: ? ? 2? ? 2 ?? ? ? + exp ? . 1 ? (4 + o(1)) exp ? 16 32 It should be noted that the asymptotic notation is merely to get rid of second-order terms, and is not an essential feature. Also, the constants are by no means the tightest possible. With these lemmas, we can prove that a direct estimation of stab(A, D, m), based on a random sample, allows us to discern the more stable model with high probability, for arbitrarily large sample sizes. Theorem 3. For the setting described in Lemma 1, define the following unbiased estimator ??k,4m of stab(Ak , D, m): Given a sample of size 4m, split it randomly into 3 disjoint subsets S1 ,S2 ,S3 of size m,m and 2m respectively. Estimate dD (Ak (S1 ), Ak (S2 )) by computing ? ? X 1 1 Ak (S1 )(xi , xm+i ) 6= Ak (S2 )(xi , xm+i ) , m xi ,xm+i ?S3 where (x1 , .., xm ) is a random permutation of S3 , and return this value as an estimate of stab(Ak , D, m). If three samples of size 4m each are drawn i.i.d from D, and are used to calculate ??2,4m , ??3,4m , ??4,4m , then ? n o? ? ? ? ?? ?? Pr ??3,4m ? min ??2,4m , ??4,4m ? exp ??(?2 ) + exp ?? m . Proof. Using Lemma 2, we have that: ? Pr ? min {dD (A2 (S10 ), A2 (S20 )), dD (A4 (S100 ), A4 (S200 ))} ?2 dD (A3 (S1 ), A3 (S2 )) ? ? < exp ??(?2 ) . (5) Denoting the event above as B, and assuming it does not occur, we have that the estimators ??2,4m , ??3,4m , ??4,4m are each an empirical average over an additional sample of size m, and the expected value of ??3,4m is at least twice smaller than the expected values ? of the other two. Moreover, by Lemma 1, the expected value of dD (A3 (S1 ), A3 (S2 )) is ?(1/ m). Invoking Thm. 2, we have that: ? n o ? ? ? ?? ?? (6) Pr ??3,4m ? min ??2,4m , ??4,4m ? B { ? exp ?? m Combining Eq. (5) and Eq. (6) yield the required result. 5 Experiments In order to further substantiate our analysis above, some experiments were run on synthetic and real world data, with the goal of performing model selection over the number of clusters k. Our first experiment simulated the setting discussed in section 4 (see figure 1). We tested 3 different Gaussian mixture distributions (with ? = 5, 7, 8), and sample sizes m ranging from 25 to 222 . For each distribution and sample size, we empirically estimated ??2 , ??3 and ??4 as described in section 4, using the k-means algorithm, and repeated this procedure over 1000 trials. Our results show that although these empirical estimators converge towards zero, their convergence rates differ, with ? approximately constant ratios between them. Scaling the graphs by m results in approximately constant and differing stability measures for each ?. Moreover, the failure rate does not increase with sample size, and decreases rapidly to negligible size as the Gaussians become more well separated - exactly in line with Thm. 3. Notice that although in the previous section we assumed a large separation between the Gaussians for analytical convenience, good results are obtained even when this separation is quite small. For the other experiments, we used the stability-based cluster validation algorithm proposed in [9], which was found to compare favorably with similar algorithms, and has the desirable property of 6 Values of ??2 , ??3 , ??4 Distribution Failure Rate 0.5 p(x) 0.3 ?2 0.4 ?4 0.3 10 0.2 10 ?6 0.1 10 0 10 ?8 ?10 ?5 0 5 10 0.2 k=2 k=3 k=4 1 0.1 3 10 5 10 7 10 10 0 1 10 3 5 10 7 10 10 0.5 p(x) 0.3 ?2 0.4 ?4 0.3 10 0.2 10 0.1 10 0 10 ?6 ?8 ?10 ?5 0 5 10 0.2 k=2 k=3 k=4 1 0.1 3 10 5 10 7 10 10 0 1 10 3 5 10 7 10 10 0.5 p(x) 0.3 ?2 0.4 10 0.3 ?4 0.2 10 ?6 0.1 10 0 10 ?8 ?10 ?5 0 5 10 0.2 k=2 k=3 k=4 1 0.1 3 10 5 10 7 10 10 0 1 10 3 5 10 7 10 m 10 m Figure 1: Empirical validation of results in section 4. In each row, the leftmost sub-figure is the actual distribution, the middle sub-figure is a log-log plot of the estimators ??2 , ??3 , ??4 (averaged over 1000 trials), as a function of the sample size, and on the right is the failure rate as a function of the sample size (percentage of trials where ??3 was not the smallest of the three). Random Sample Values of stability method index ?1 5 10 0.4 0.3 ?2 0 10 k=4 0.2 ?3 ?5 10 ?10 ?10 10 0.1 k=5 ?4 ?5 0 5 Failure Rate 0.5 k=3 k=7 k=6 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 6 10 0 10 2 10 3 4 5 10 10 10 2000 4000 8000 0.5 2 ?1 0.4 10 0 k=4 k=5 ?2 10 ?2 0.2 k=3 k=2 ?3 10 ?2 0 0.3 2 2000 4000 8000 0.1 0 0.5 50 sh iy dcl aa ao 0 ?50 ?100 0 100 200 0.4 ?1 10 k=5 k=6 k=4 k=3 ?2 10 ?3 300 10 500 1000 5000 m 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 500 1000 5000 m Figure 2: Performance of stability based algorithm in [9] on 3 data sets. In each row, the leftmost sub-figure is a sample representing the distribution, the middle sub-figure is a log-log plot of the computed stability indices (averaged over 100 trials), and on the right is the failure rate (in detecting the most stable model over repeated trials). In the phoneme data set, the algorithm selects 3 clusters as the most stable models, since the vowels tend to group into a single cluster. The ?failures? are all due to trials when k = 4 was deemed more stable. 7 producing a clear quantitative stability measure, bounded in [0, 1]. Lower values match models with higher stability. The synthetic data sets selected (see figure 2) were a mixture of 5 Gaussians, and segmented 2 rings. We also experimented on the Phoneme data set [6], which consists of 4, 500 log-periodograms of 5 phonemes uttered by English speakers, to which we applied PCA projection on 3 principal components as a pre-processing step. The advantage of this data set is its clear low-dimensional representation relative to its size, allowing us to get nearer to the asymptotic convergence rates of the stability measures. All experiments used the k-means algorithm, except for the ring data set which used the spectral clustering algorithm proposed in [13]. Complementing our theoretical analysis, the experiments clearly demonstrate that regardless of the actual stability measures per fixed sample size, they seem to eventually follow roughly constant and differing convergence rates, with no substantial degradation in performance. In other words, when stability works well for small sample sizes, it should also work at least as well for larger sample sizes. The universal asymptotic convergence to zero does not seem to be a problem in that regard. 6 Conclusions In this paper, we propose a principled approach for analyzing the utility of stability for cluster validation in large finite samples. This approach stems from viewing stability as a measure of generalization in a statistical setting. It leads us to predict that in contrast to what might be concluded from previous work, cluster stability does not necessarily degrade with increasing sample size. This prediction is substantiated both theoretically and empirically. The results also provide some guidelines (via Thm. 2) for when a stability measure might be relevant for arbitrarily large sample size, despite asymptotic universal stability. They also suggest that by appropriate scaling, stability measures would become insensitive to the actual sample size used. These guidelines do not presume a specific clustering framework. However, we have proven their fulfillment rigorously only for a certain stability measure and clustering setting. The proof can be generalized in principle, but only at the cost of a more involved analysis. We are currently working on deriving more general theorems on when these guidelines apply. Acknowledgements: This work has been partially supported by the NATO SfP Programme and the PASCAL Network of excellence. References [1] Shai Ben-David. A framework for statistical clustering with a constant time approximation algorithms for k-median clustering. In Proceedings of COLT 2004, pages 415?426. [2] Shai Ben-David, Ulrike von Luxburg, and D?avid P?al. A sober look at clustering stability. In Proceedings of COLT 2006, pages 5?19. [3] Olivier Bousquet and Andr?e Elisseeff. Stability and generalization. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2:499?526, 2002. [4] Joachim M. Buhmann and Marcus Held. Model selection in clustering by uniform convergence bounds. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 216?222, 1999. [5] Andrea Caponnetto and Alexander Rakhlin. Stability properties of empirical risk minimization over donsker classes. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:2565?2583, 2006. [6] Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, Jerome Friedman. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Springer, 2001. [7] Wassily Hoeffding. Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(301):13?30, March 1963. [8] Samuel Kutin and Partha Niyogi. Almost-everywhere algorithmic stability and generalization error. In Proceeding of the 18th confrence on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), pages 275?282, 2002. [9] Tilman Lange, Volker Roth, Mikio L. Braun, and Joachim M. Buhmann. Stability-based validation of clustering solutions. Neural Computation, 16(6):1299?1323, June 2004. [10] D.A. McAllester. Pac-bayesian stochastic model selection. Machine Learning Journal, 51(1):5?21, 2003. [11] C. McDiarmid. On the method of bounded differences. In Surveys in Combinatorics, volume 141 of London Mathematical Society Lecture Note Series, pages 148?188. Cambridge University Press, 1989. [12] Alexander Rakhlin and Andrea Caponnetto. Stability of k-means clustering. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [13] Jianbo Shi and Jitendra Malik. Normalized cuts and image segmentation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 22(8):888?905, 2000. [14] Ulrike von Luxburg and Shai Ben-David. Towards a statistical theory of clustering. Technical report, PASCAL workshop on clustering, London, 2005. 8
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Transfer Learning using Kolmogorov Complexity: Basic Theory and Empirical Evaluations M. M. Hassan Mahmud Department of Computer Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [email protected] Sylvian R. Ray Department of Computer Science University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [email protected] Abstract In transfer learning we aim to solve new problems using fewer examples using information gained from solving related problems. Transfer learning has been successful in practice, and extensive PAC analysis of these methods has been developed. However it is not yet clear how to define relatedness between tasks. This is considered as a major problem as it is conceptually troubling and it makes it unclear how much information to transfer and when and how to transfer it. In this paper we propose to measure the amount of information one task contains about another using conditional Kolmogorov complexity between the tasks. We show how existing theory neatly solves the problem of measuring relatedness and transferring the ?right? amount of information in sequential transfer learning in a Bayesian setting. The theory also suggests that, in a very formal and precise sense, no other reasonable transfer method can do much better than our Kolmogorov Complexity theoretic transfer method, and that sequential transfer is always justified. We also develop a practical approximation to the method and use it to transfer information between 8 arbitrarily chosen databases from the UCI ML repository. 1 Introduction The goal of transfer learning [1] is to learn new tasks with fewer examples given information gained from solving related tasks, with each task corresponding to the distribution/probability measure generating the samples for that task. The study of transfer is motivated by the fact that people use knowledge gained from previously solved, related problems to solve new problems quicker. Transfer learning methods have been successful in practice, for instance it has been used to recognize related parts of a visual scene in robot navigation tasks, predict rewards in related regions in reinforcement learning based robot navigation problems, and predict results of related medical tests for the same group of patients. Figure 1 shows a prototypical transfer method [1], and it illustrates some of the key ideas. The m tasks being learned are defined on the same input space, and are related by virtue of requiring the same common ?high level features? encoded in the hidden units. The tasks are learned in parallel ? i.e. during training, the network is trained by alternating training samples from the different tasks, and the hope is that now the common high level features will be learned quicker. Transfer can also be done sequentially where information from tasks learned previously are used to speed up learning of new ones. Despite the practical successes, the key question of how one measures relatedness between tasks has, so far, eluded answer. Most current methods, including the deep PAC theoretic analysis in [2], start by assuming that the tasks are related because they have a common near-optimal inductive bias (the common hidden units in the above example). As no explicit measure of relatedness is prescribed, it becomes difficult to answer questions such as how much information to transfer between tasks and when not to transfer information. 1 Figure 1: A typical Transfer Learning Method. There has been some work which attempt to solve these problems. [3] gives a more explicit measure of task relatedness in which two tasks P and Q are said to be similar with respect to a given set of functions if the set contains an element f such that P (a) = Q(f (a)) for all events a. By assuming the existence of these functions, the authors are able to derive PAC sample complexity bounds for error of each task (as opposed to expected error, w.r.t. a distribution over the m tasks, in [2]). More interesting is the approach in [4], where the author derives PAC bounds in which the sample complexity is proportional to the joint Kolmogorov complexity [5] of the m hypotheses. So Kolmogorov complexity (see below) determines the relatedness between tasks. However, the bounds hold only for ? 8192 tasks (Theorem 3). In this paper we approach the above idea from a Bayesian perspective and measure tasks relatedness using conditional Kolmogorov complexity of the hypothesis. We describe the basics of the theory to show how it justifies this approach and neatly solves the problem of measuring task relatedness (details in [6; 7]). We then perform experiments to show the effectiveness of this method. Let us take a brief look at our approach. We assume that each hypothesis is represented by a program ? for example a decision tree is represented by a program that contains a data structure representing the tree, and the relevant code to compute the leaf node corresponding to a given input vector. The Kolmogorov complexity of a hypothesis h (or any other bit string) is now defined as the length of the shortest program that outputs h given no input. This is a measure of absolute information content of an individual object ? in this case the hypothesis h. It can be shown that Kolmogorov complexity is a sharper version of Information Theoretic entropy, which measures the amount of information in an ensemble of objects with respect to a distribution over the ensemble. The conditional Kolmogorov complexity of hypothesis h given h? , K(h|h? ), is defined as the length of the shortest program that outputs the program h given h? as input. K(h|h? ) measures the amount of constructive information h? contains about h ? how much information h? contains for the purpose of constructing h. This is precisely what we wish to measure in transfer learning. Hence this becomes our measure of relatedness for performing sequential transfer learning in the Bayesian setting. In the Bayesian setting, any sequential transfer learning mechanism/algorithm is ?just? a conditional prior W (?|h? ) over the hypothesis/probability measure space, where h? is the task learned previously ? i.e. the task we are trying to transfer information from. In this case, by setting the prior over the ? hypothesis space to be P (?|h? ) := 2?K(?|h ) we weight each candidate hypothesis by how related it is to previous tasks, and so we automatically transfer the right amount of information when learning the new problem. We show that in a certain precise sense this prior is never much worse than any reasonable transfer learning prior, or any non-transfer prior. So, sequential transfer learning is always justified from a theoretical perspective. This result is quite unexpected as the current belief in the transfer learning community is that it should hurt to transfer from unrelated tasks. Due to lack of space, we only just briefly note that similar results hold for an appropriate interpretation of parallel transfer, and that, translated to the Bayesian setting, current practical transfer methods look like sequential transfer methods [6; 7]. Kolmogorov complexity is computable only in the limit (i.e. with infinite resources), and so, while ideal for investigating transfer in the limit, in practice we need to use an approximation of it (see [8] for a good example of this). In this paper we perform transfer in Bayesian decision trees by using a fairly simple approximation to the 2?K(?|?) prior. In the rest of the paper we proceed as follows. In section 3 we define Kolmogorov complexity more precisely and state all the relevant Bayesian convergence results for making the claims above. We then describe our Kolmogorov complexity based Bayesian transfer learning method. In section 4 we describe our method for approximation of the above using Bayesian decision trees, and then in section 5 we describe 12 transfer experiments using 8 standard databases from the UCI machine learning repository [9]. Our experiments are the most general that we know of, in the sense that we 2 transfer between arbitrary databases with little or no semantic relationships. We note that this fact also makes it difficult to compare our method to other existing methods (see also section 6). 2 Preliminaries We consider Bayesian transfer learning for finite input spaces Ii and finite output spaces Oi . We assume finite hypothesis spaces Hi , where each h ? Hi is a conditional probability measure on Oi , conditioned on elements of Ii . So for y ? Oi and x ? Ii , h(y|x) gives the probability of output being y given input x. Given Dn = {(x1 , y1 ), (x2 , y2 ), ? ? ? , (xn , yn )} from Ii ? Oi , the probability of Dn according to h ? Hi is given by: n Y h(Dn ) := h(yk |xk ) k=1 The conditional probability of a new sample (xnew , ynew ) ? Ii ? Oi for any conditional probability measure ? (e.g. h ? Hi or MW in ( 3.2) ) is given by: ?(Dn ? {(xnew , ynew )}) ?(ynew |xnew , Dn ) := (2.1) ?(Dn ) So the learning problem is: given a training sample Dn , where for each (xk , yk ) ? Dn yk is assumed to have been chosen according a h ? Hi , learn h. The prediction problem is to predict the label of the new sample xnew using ( 2.1). The probabilities for the inputs x are not included above because they cancel out. This is merely the standard Bayesian setting, translated to a typical Machine learning setting (e.g. [10]). We use MCMC simulations in a computer to sample for our Bayesian learners, and so considering only finite spaces above is acceptable. However, the theory we present here holds for any hypothesis, input and output space that may be handled by a computer with infinite resources (see [11; 12] for more precise descriptions). Note that we are considering cross-domain transfer [13] as our standard setting (see section 6). We further assume that each h ? Hi is a program (therefore a bit string) for some Universal prefix Turing machine U . When it is clear that a particular symbol p denotes a program, we will write p(x) to denote U (p, x), i.e. running program p on input x. 3 3.1 Transfer Learning using Kolmogorov Complexity Kolmogorov Complexity based Task Relatedness A program is a bit string, and a measure of absolute constructive information that a bit string x contains about another bit string y is given by the conditional Kolmogorov complexity of x given y [5] . Since our hypotheses are programs/bit strings, the amount of information that a hypothesis or program h? contains about constructing another hypothesis h is also given by the same: Definition 1. The conditional Kolmogorov complexity of h ? Hj given h? ? Hi is defined as the length of the shortest program that given the program h? as input, outputs the program h. K(h|h? ) := min{l(r) : r(h? ) = h} r We will use a minimality property of K. Let f (x, y) be a computable function over product of bit strings. f is computable means that there is a program p such that p(x, n), n ? N, P computes f (x) to accuracy ? < 2?n in finite time. Now assume that f (x, y) satisfies for each y x 2?f (x,y) ? 1. Then for a constant cf = K(f ) + O(1), independent of x and y, but dependent on K(f ), the length of shortest program computing f , and some small constant (O(1)) [5, Corollary 4.3.1]: K(x|y) ? f (x, y) + cf (3.1) 3.2 Bayesian Convergence Results A Bayes mixture MW over Hi is defined as follows: X X MW (Dn ) := h(Dn )W (h) with W (h) ? 1 h?Hi h?Hi 3 (3.2) (the inequality is sufficient for the convergence results). Now assume that the data has been generated by a hj ? Hi (this is standard for a Bayesian setting, but we will relax this constraint below). Then the following impressive result holds true for each (x, y) ? Ii ? Oi . ? X X hj (Dn )[MW (y|x, Dn ) ? hj (y|x, Dn )]2 ? ? ln W (hj ). (3.3) t=0 Dn So for finite ? ln W (hj ), convergence is rapid; the expected number of times n |MW (a|x, Dn ) ? hj (a|x, Dn )| > ? is ? ? ln W (hj )/?2 , and the probability that the number of ? deviations > ? ln W (hj )/?2 ? is < ?. This result was first proved in [14], and extended variously in [11; 12]. In essence these results hold as long as Hi can be enumerated and hj and W can be computed with infinite resources. These results also hold if hj 6? Hi , but ?h?j ? Hi such that the nth order KL divergence between hj and h?j is bounded by k. In this case the error bound is ? ln W (h?j ) + k [11, section 2.5]. Now consider the Solomonoff-Levin prior: 2?K(h) ? this has ( 3.3) error bound K(h) ln 2, and for any computable prior W (?), f (x, y) := ? ln W (x)/ ln 2 satisfies conditions for f (x, y) in ( 3.1). So by ( 3.3), with y = the empty string, we get: K(h) ln 2 ? ? ln W (h) + cW (3.4) ?K(h) By ( 3.3), this means that for all h ? Hi , the error bound for the 2 prior can be no more than a constant worse than the error bound for any other prior. Since reasonable priors have small K(W ) (= O(1)), cW = O(1) and this prior is universally optimal [11, section 5.3]. 3.3 Bayesian Transfer Learning Assume we have previously observed/learned m ? 1 tasks, with task tj ? Hij , and the mth task to be learned is in Him . Let t := (t1 , t2 , ? ? ? , tm?1 ). In the Bayesian framework, a transfer learning scheme corresponds to a computable prior W (?|t) over the space Him , X W (h|t) ? 1 h?Him In this case, by ( 3.3), the error bound of the transfer learning scheme MW (defined by the prior W ) is ? ln W (h|t). We define our transfer learning method MT L by choosing the prior 2?K(?|t) : X MT L (Dn ) := h(Dn )2?K(h|t) . h?Him For MT L the error bound is K(h|t) ln 2. By the minimality property ( 3.1), we get that K(h|t) ln 2 ? ? ln W (h|t) + cW So for a reasonable computable transfer learning scheme MW , cW = O(1) and for all h and t, the error bound for MT L is no more than a constant worse than the error bound for MW ? i.e. MT L is universally optimal [11, section 5.3]. Also note that in general K(x|y) ? K(x)1 . Therefore by ( 3.4) the transfer learning scheme MT L is also universally optimal over all non-transfer learning schemes ? i.e. in the precise formal sense of the framework in this paper, sequential transfer learning is always justified. The result in this section, while novel, are not technically deep (see also [6] [12, section 6]). We should also note that the 2?K(h) prior is not universally optimal with respect to the transfer prior W (?|t) because the inequality ( 3.4) now holds only upto the constant cW (?|t) which depends on K(t). So this constant increases with increasing number of tasks which is very undesirable. Indeed, this is demonstrated in our experiments when the base classifier used is an approximation to the 2?K(h) prior and the error of this prior is seen to be significantly higher than the transfer learning prior 2?K(h|t) . 4 Practical Approximation using Decision Trees Since K is computable only in the limit, to apply the above ideas in practical situations, we need to approximate K and hence MT L . Furthermore we also need to specify the spaces Hi , Oi , Ii and how to sample from the approximation of MT L . We address each issue in turn. 1 Because arg K(x), with a constant length modification, also outputs x given input y. 4 4.1 Decision Trees We will consider standard binary decision trees as our hypotheses. Each hypothesis space Hi consists of decision trees for Ii defined by the set fi of features. A tree h ? Hi is defined recursively: h := nroot nj := rj Cj ? ? | rj Cj njL ? | rj Cj ? njR | rj Cj njL njR C is a vector of size |Oi |, with component Ci giving the probability of the ith class. Each rule r is of the form f < v, where f ? fi and v is a value for f . The vector C is used during classification only when the corresponding node has one or more ? children. The size of each tree is N c0 where N is the number of nodes, and c0 is a constant, denoting the size of each rule entry, the outgoing pointers, and C. Since c0 and the length of the program code p0 for computing the tree output are constants independent of the tree, we define the length of a tree as l(h) := N . Approximating K and the Prior 2?K(?|t) 4.2 Approximation for a single previously learned tree: We will approximate K(?|?) using a function that is defined for a single previously learned tree as follows: Cld (h|h? ) := l(h) ? d(h, h? ) where d(h, h? ) is the maximum number of overlapping nodes starting from the root nodes: d(h, h? ) := d(nroot , n?root ) d(n, ?) := 0 d(n, n? ) := 1 + d(nL , n?L ) + d(nR , n?R ) d(?, n? ) := 0 In the single task case, the prior is just 2?l(h) /Zl (which is an approximation to the Solomonoff? Levin prior 2?K(?) ), and in the transfer learning case, the prior is 2?Cld (?|h ) /ZCld where the Zs 2 are normalization terms . In both cases, we can sample from the prior directly by growing the decision tree dynamically. Call a ? in h a hole. Then for 2?l(h) , during the generation process, we first generate an integer k according to 2?t distribution (easy to do using a pseudo random number generator). Then at each step we select a hole uniformly at random and then create a node there (with two more holes) and generate the corresponding rule randomly. We do so until we get a tree ? with l(h) = k. In the transfer learning case, for the prior 2?Cld (?|h ) we first generate an integer k ?t according to 2 distribution. Then we generate as above until we get a tree h with Cld (h|h? ) = k. It can be seen with a little thought that these procedures sample from the respective priors. Approximation for multiple previously learned trees: We define Cld for multiple trees as an averaging of the contributions of each of the m ? 1 previously learned trees: ! m?1 1 X ?Cld (hm |hi ) m Cld (hm |h1 , h2 , ? ? ? , hm?1 ) := ? log 2 m ? 1 i=1 m m which reduces to 1/[(m? In the transfer learning case, we need to sample according 2?Cld (?|?) /ZCld Pm?1 ?Cld (hm |hi ) m] 1)ZCld . To sample from this, we can simply select a hi from the m ? 1 trees i=1 2 at random and then sample from 2?Cld (?|hi ) to get the new tree. The transfer learning mixture: The approximation of the transfer learning mixture MT L is now: X m m PT L (Dn ) = h(Dn )2?Cld (h|t) /ZCld h?Him m So by ( 3.3), the error bound for PT L is given by Cld (h|t) ln 2 + ln ZCld (the ln ZCld is a constant m that is same for all h ? Hi ). So when using Cld , universality is maintained, but only up to the degree m that Cld approximates K. In our experiments we used the prior 1.005?C instead of 2?C above to make larger trees more likely and hence speed up convergence of MCMC sampling. 2 The Z?s exist, here because the Hs Pare finite, and in general because ki = N c0 + l(p0 ) gives lengths of programs, which are known to satisfy i 2?ki ? 1. 5 Table 1: Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm 1. Let Dn be the training sample; select the current tree/state hcur using the proposal distribution q(hcur ). 2. For i = 1 to J do (a) Choose a candidate next state hprop according to the proposal distribution q(hprop ). (b) Draw u uniformly at random from [0, 1] and set hcur := hprop if A(hprop , hcur ) > u, where A is defined by ( ) m h(Dn )2?Cld (h|t) q(h? ) A(h, h? ) := min 1, m ? h? (Dn )2?Cld (h |t) q(h) 4.3 Approximating PT L using Metropolis-Hastings As in standard Bayesian MCMC methods, the idea will be to draw N samples hmi from the posterior, P (h|Dn , t) which is given by m m P (Dn )) P (h|Dn , t) := h(Dn )2?Cld (h|t) /(ZCld Then we will approximate PT L by N 1 X hmi (y|x) P?T L (y|x) := N i=1 We will use the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample from PT L (see [15] for a brief introduction and further references). The algorithm is given in table 1. The algorithm is first run for some J = T , to get the Markov chain q ? A to converge, and then starting from the last hcur in the run, the algorithm is run again for J = N times to get N samples for P?T L . In our experiments m m , and hence the acceptance we set T to 1000 and N = 50. We set q to our prior 2?Cld (?|t) /ZCld probability A is reduced to min{1, h(Dn )/h? (Dn )}. Note that every time after we generate a tree according to q, we set the C entries using the training sample Dn in the usual way. 5 Experiments We used 8 databases from the UCI machine learning repository [9] in our experiments (table 2). To show transfer of information we used 20% of the data for a task as the training sample, but also used as prior knowledge trees learned on another task using 80% of the data as training sample. The reported error rates are on the testing sets and are averages over 10 runs . To the best of our knowledge our transfer experiments are the most general performed so far, in the sense that the databases information is transferred between have semantic relationship that is often tenuous. We performed 3 sets of experiments. In the first set we learned each classifier using 80% of the data as training sample and 20% as testing sample (since it is a Bayesian method, we did not use a validation sample-set). This set ensured that our base Bayesian classifier with 2?l(h) prior is reasonably powerful and that any improvement in performance in the transfer experiments (set 3) was due to transfer and not deficiency in our base classifier. From a survey of literature it seems the error rate for our classifier is always at least a couple of percentage points better than C4.5. As an example, for ecoli our classifier outperforms Adaboost and Random Forests in [16], but is a bit worse than these for German Credit. In the second set of experiments we learned the databases that we are going to transfer to using 20% of the database as training sample, and 80% of the data as the testing sample. This was done to establish baseline performance for the transfer learning case. The third and final set of experiments were performed to do the actual transfer. In this case, first one task was learned using 80/20 (80% training, 20% testing) data set and then this was used to learn a 20/80 dataset. During transfer, the N N trees from the sampling of the 80/20 task were all used in the prior 2?Cld (?|t) . The results are 6 Table 2: Database summary. The last column gives the error and standard deviation for 80/20 database split. Data Set No. of Samples No. of Feats. No. Classes Error/S.D. Ecoli Yeast Mushroom Australian Credit German Credit Hepatitis Breast Cancer,Wisc. Heart Disease, Cleve. 336 1484 8124 690 1000 155 699 303 7 8 22 14 20 19 9 14 8 10 2 2 2 2 2 5 9.8%, 3.48 14.8%, 2.0 0.83%, 0.71 16.6%, 3.75 28.2%, 4.5 18.86%, 2.03 5.6%, 1.9 23.0%, 2.56 given in table 3. In our experiments, we transferred only to tasks that showed a significant drop in error rate with the 20/80 split. Surprisingly, the error of the other data sets did not change much. As can be seen from comparing the tables, in most cases transfer of information improves the performance compared to the baseline transfer case. For ecoli, the transfer resulted in improvement to near 80/20 levels, while for australian the improvement was better than 80/20. While the error rate for mushroom and bc-wisc did not move up to 80/20 levels, there was improvement. Interestingly transfer learning did not hurt in one single case, which agrees with our theoretical results in the idealized setting. Table 3: Results of 12 transfer experiments. Transfer To and From rows gives databases information is transferred to and from. The row No-Transfer gives the baseline 20/80 error-rate and standard deviation. Row Transfer gives the error rate and standard deviation after transfer, and the final row PI gives percentage improvement in performance due to transfer. With our admittedly inefficient code, each experiment took between 15 ? 60 seconds on a 2.4 GHz laptop with 512 MB RAM. Trans. To Trans. From Yeast ecoli Germ. BC Wisc Germ. Australian ecoli hep. No-Transfer Transfer PI 20.6%, 3.8 11.3%, 1.6 45.1% 20.6%, 3.8 10.2%, 4.74 49% 20.6%, 3.8 9.68%, 2.98 53% 23.2%, 2.4 15.47%, 0.67 33.0% 23.2%, 2.4 15.43%, 1.2 33.5% 23.2%, 2.4 15.21%, 0.42 34.4% Trans. To Trans. From ecoli mushroom BC Wisc. Germ. heart BC Wisc. Aus. ecoli No-Transfer Transfer PI 13.8%, 1.3 4.6%, 0.17 66.0% 13.8%, 1.3 4.64%, 0.21 66.0% 13.8%, 1.3 3.89%, 1.02 71.8% 10.3%, 1.6 8.3%, 0.93 19.4% 10.3%, 1.6 8.1%, 1.22 21.3% 10.3%, 1.6 7.8%, 2.03 24.3% 6 Discussion In this paper we introduced a Kolmogorov Complexity theoretic framework for Transfer Learning. The theory is universally optimal and elegant, and we showed its practical applicability by constructing approximations to it to transfer information across disparate domains in standard UCI machine learning databases. The full theoretical development can be found in [6; 7]. Directions for future empirical investigations are many. We did not consider transferring from multiple previous tasks, and effect of size of source samples on transfer performance (using 70/30 etc. as the sources) or transfer in regression. Due to the general nature of our method, we can perform transfer experiments between any combination of databases in the UCI repository. We 7 also wish to perform experiments using more powerful generalized similarity functions like the gzip compressor [8]3 . We also hope that it is clear that Kolmogorov complexity based approach elegantly solves the problem of cross-domain transfer, where we transfer information between tasks that are defined over different input,output and distribution spaces. To the best of our knowledge, the first paper to address this was [13], and recent works include [17] and [18]. All these methods transfer information by finding structural similarity between various networks/rule that form the hypotheses. This is, of course, a way to measure constructive similarity between the hypotheses, and hence an approximation to Kolmogorov complexity based similarity. So Kolmogorov complexity elegantly unifies these ideas. Additionally, the above methods, particularly the last two, are rather elaborate and are hypothesis space specific ([18] is even task specific). The theory of Kolmogorov complexity and its practical approximations such as [8] and this paper suggests that we can get good performance by just using generalized compressors, such as gzip, etc., to measure similarity. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Kiran Lakkaraju for their comments and Samarth Swarup for many fruitful disucssions. References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] Rich Caruana. Multitask learning. Machine Learning, 28:41?75, 1997. Jonathan Baxter. A model of inductive bias learning. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 12:149? 198, March 2000. Shai Ben-David and Reba Schuller. Exploiting task relatedness for learning multiple tasks. In Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2003. Brendan Juba. Estimating relatedness via data compression. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2006. Ming Li and Paul Vitanyi. An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity and its Applications. SpringerVerlag, New York, 2nd edition, 1997. M. M. Hassan Mahmud. On universal transfer learning. In Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory, 2007. M. M. Hassan Mahmud. On universal transfer learning (Under Review). 2008. R. Cilibrasi and P. Vitanyi. Clustering by compression. IEEE Transactions on Information theory, 51(4):1523?1545, 2004. D.J. Newman, S. Hettich, C.L. Blake, and C.J. Merz. UCI repository of ML databases, 1998. Radford M. Neal. Bayesian methods for machine learning, NIPS tutorial, 2004. Marcus Hutter. Optimality of Bayesian universal prediction for general loss and alphabet. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:971?1000, 2003. Marcus Hutter. On universal prediction and bayesian confirmation. Theoretical Computer Science (in press), 2007. Samarth Swarup and Sylvian R. Ray. Cross domain knowledge transfer using structured representations. In Proceedings of the 21st National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2006. R. J. Solomonoff. Complexity-based induction systems: comparisons and convergence theorems. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 24(4):422?432, 1978. Christophe Andrieu, Nando de Freitas, Arnaud Doucet, and Michael I. Jordan. An introduction to MCMC for machine learning. Machine Learning, 50(1-2):5?43, 2003. Leo Breiman. Random forests. Machine Learning, 45:5?32, 2001. Lilyana Mihalkova, Tuyen Huynh, and Raymond Mooney. Mapping and revising markov logic networks for transfer learning. In Proceedings of the 22nd National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI, 2007. Matthew Taylor and Peter Stone. Cross-domain transfer for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2007. 3 A flavor of this approach: if the standard compressor is gzip, then the function Cgzip (xy) will give the length of the string xy after compression by gzip. Cgzip (xy) ? Cgzip (y) will be the conditional Cgzip (x|y). So Cgzip (h|h? ) will give the relatedness between tasks. 8
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Inferring Neural Firing Rates from Spike Trains Using Gaussian Processes John P. Cunningham1 , Byron M. Yu1,2,3 , Krishna V. Shenoy1,2 1 Department of Electrical Engineering, 2 Neurosciences Program, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 {jcunnin,byronyu,shenoy}@stanford.edu Maneesh Sahani3 Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL Alexandra House, 17 Queen Square, London, WC1N 3AR, UK [email protected] 3 Abstract Neural spike trains present challenges to analytical efforts due to their noisy, spiking nature. Many studies of neuroscientific and neural prosthetic importance rely on a smoothed, denoised estimate of the spike train?s underlying firing rate. Current techniques to find time-varying firing rates require ad hoc choices of parameters, offer no confidence intervals on their estimates, and can obscure potentially important single trial variability. We present a new method, based on a Gaussian Process prior, for inferring probabilistically optimal estimates of firing rate functions underlying single or multiple neural spike trains. We test the performance of the method on simulated data and experimentally gathered neural spike trains, and we demonstrate improvements over conventional estimators. 1 Introduction Neuronal activity, particularly in cerebral cortex, is highly variable. Even when experimental conditions are repeated closely, the same neuron may produce quite different spike trains from trial to trial. This variability may be due to both randomness in the spiking process and to differences in cognitive processing on different experimental trials. One common view is that a spike train is generated from a smooth underlying function of time (the firing rate) and that this function carries a significant portion of the neural information. If this is the case, questions of neuroscientific and neural prosthetic importance may require an accurate estimate of the firing rate. Unfortunately, these estimates are complicated by the fact that spike data gives only a sparse observation of its underlying rate. Typically, researchers average across many trials to find a smooth estimate (averaging out spiking noise). However, averaging across many roughly similar trials can obscure important temporal features [1]. Thus, estimating the underlying rate from only one spike train (or a small number of spike trains believed to be generated from the same underlying rate) is an important but challenging problem. The most common approach to the problem has been to collect spikes from multiple trials in a peristimulus-time histogram (PSTH), which is then sometimes smoothed by convolution or splines [2], [3]. Bin sizes and smoothness parameters are typically chosen ad hoc (but see [4], [5]) and the result is fundamentally a multi-trial analysis. An alternative is to convolve a single spike train with a kernel. Again, the kernel shape and time scale are frequently ad hoc. For multiple trials, researchers may average over multiple kernel-smoothed estimates. [2] gives a thorough review of classical methods. 1 More recently, point process likelihood methods have been adapted to spike data [6]?[8]. These methods optimize (implicitly or explicitly) the conditional intensity function ?(t|x(t), H(t)) ? which gives the probability of a spike in [t, t + dt), given an underlying rate function x(t) and the history of previous spikes H(t) ? with respect to x(t). In a regression setting, this rate x(t) may be learned as a function of an observed covariate, such as a sensory stimulus or limb movement. In the unsupervised setting of interest here, it is constrained only by prior expectations such as smoothness. Probabilistic methods enjoy two advantages over kernel smoothing. First, they allow explicit modelling of interactions between spikes through the history term H(t) (e.g., refractory periods). Second, as we will see, the probabilistic framework provides a principled way to share information between trials and to select smoothing parameters. In neuroscience, most applications of point process methods use maximum likelihood estimation. In the unsupervised setting, it has been most common to optimize x(t) within the span of an arbitrary basis (such as a spline basis [3]). In other fields, a theory of generalized Cox processes has been developed, where the point process is conditionally Poisson, and x(t) is obtained by applying a link function to a draw from a random process, often a Gaussian process (GP) (e.g. [9]). In this approach, parameters of the GP, which set the scale and smoothness of x(t) can be learned by optimizing the (approximate) marginal likelihood or evidence, as in GP classification or regression. However, the link function, which ensures a nonnegative intensity, introduces possibly undesirable artifacts. For instance, an exponential link leads to a process that grows less smooth as the intensity increases. Here, we make two advances. First, we adapt the theory of GP-driven point processes to incorporate a history-dependent conditional likelihood, suitable for spike trains. Second, we formulate the problem such that nonnegativity in x(t) is achieved without a distorting link function or sacrifice of tractability. We also demonstrate the power of numerical techniques that makes application of GP methods to this problem computationally tractable. We show that GP methods employing evidence optimization outperform both kernel smoothing and maximum-likelihood point process models. 2 Gaussian Process Model For Spike Trains Spike trains can often be well modelled by gamma-interval point processes [6], [10]. We assume the underlying nonnegative firing rate x(t) : t ? [0, T ] is a draw from a GP, and then we assume that our spike train is a conditionally inhomogeneous gamma-interval process (IGIP), given x(t). The spike train is represented by a list of spike times y = {y0 , . . ., yN }. Since we will model this spike train as an IGIP1 , y | x(t) is by definition a renewal process, so we can write: p(y | x(t)) = N Y p(yi | yi?1 , x(t)) ? p0 (y0 | x(t)) ? pT (T | yN , x(t)), (1) i=1 where p0 (?) is the density of the first spike occuring at y0 , and pT (?) is the density of no spikes being observed on (yN , T ]; the density for IGIP intervals (of order ? ? 1) (see e.g. [6]) can be written as:  Z yi ??1   Z yi ?x(yi ) p(yi | yi?1 , x(t)) = ? x(u)du exp ?? x(u)du . ?(?) yi?1 yi?1 (2) The true p0 (?) and pT (?) under this gamma-interval spiking model are not closed form, so we simplify these distributions as intervals of an inhomogeneous Poisson process (IP). This step, which we find to sacrifice very little in terms of accuracy, helps to preserve tractability. Note also that we write the distribution in terms of the inter-spike-interval distribution p(yi |yi?1 , x(t)) and not ?(t|x(t), H(t)), but the process could be considered equivalently in terms of conditional intensity. We now discretize x(t) : t ? [0, T ] by the time resolution of the experiment (?, here 1 ms), to T yield a series of n evenly spaced samples x = [x1 , . . ., xn ]0 (with n = ? ). The events y become N + 1 time indices into x, with N much smaller than n. The discretized IGIP output process is now (ignoring terms that scale with ?): 1 The IGIP is one of a class of renewal models that works well for spike data (much better than inhomogeneous Poisson; see [6], [10]). Other log-concave renewal models such as the inhomogeneous inverse-Gaussian interval can be chosen, and the implementation details remain unchanged. 2 p(y | x) =  N  Y ?xy i i=1 ?(?) ? yX i ?1 xk ? k=yi?1 ??1   yX i ?1 exp ?? xk ? k=yi?1  yX   n?1  0 ?1 X ? xy0 exp ? xk ? ? exp ? xk ? , k=0 (3) k=yN where the final two terms are p0 (?) and pT (?), respectively [11]. Our goal is to estimate a smoothly varying firing rate function from spike times. Loosely, instead of being restricted to only one family of functions, GP allows all functions to be possible; the choice of kernel determines which functions are more likely, and by how much. Here we use the standard squared exponential (SE) kernel. Thus, x ? N (?1, ?), where ? is the positive definite covariance matrix defined by    ? ? = K(ti , tj ) i,j?{1,...,n} where K(ti , tj ) = ?f2 exp ? (ti ? tj )2 + ?v2 ?ij . 2 (4) For notational convenience, we define the hyperparameter set ? = [?; ?; ?; ? f2 ; ?v2 ]. Typically, the GP mean ? is set to 0. Since our intensity function is nonnegative, however, it is sensible to treat ? instead as a hyperparameter and let it be optimized to a positive value. We note that other standard kernels - including the rational quadratic, Matern ? = 23 , and Matern ? = 25 - performed similarly to the SE; thus we only present the SE here. For an in depth discussion of kernels and of GP, see [12]. As written, the model assumes only one observed spike train; it may be that we have m trials believed to be generated from Ymthe same firing rate profile. Our method naturally incorporates this case: define p(y(i) | x), where y(i) denotes the ith spike train observed.2 Otherwise, the p({y}m | x) = 1 i=1 model is unchanged. 3 3.1 Finding an Optimal Firing Rate Estimate Algorithmic Approach R Ideally, we would calculate the posterior on firing rate p(x | y) = ? p(x | y, ?)p(?)d? (integrating over the hyperparameters ?), but this problem is intractable. We consider two approximations: replacing the integral by evaluation at the modal ?, and replacing the integral with a sum over a discrete grid of ? values. We first consider choosing a modal hyperparameter set (ML-II model selection, see [12]), i.e. p(x | y) ? q(x | y, ? ? ) where q(?) is some approximate posterior, and ?? = argmax p(? | y) = argmax p(?)p(y | ?) = argmax p(?) ? ? ? Z p(y | x, ?)p(x | ?)dx. (5) x (This and the following equations hold similarly for a single observation y or multiple observations {y}m 1 , so we consider only the single observation for notational brevity.) Specific choices for the hyperprior p(?) are discussed in Results. The integral in Eq. 5 is intractable under the distributions we are modelling, and thus we must use an approximation technique. Laplace approximation and Expectation Propagation (EP) are the most widely used techniques (see [13] for a comparison). The Laplace approximation fits an unnormalized Gaussian distribution to the integrand in Eq. 5. Below we show this integrand is log concave in x. This fact makes reasonable the Laplace approximation, since we know that the distribution being approximated is unimodal in x and shares log concavity with the normal distribution. Further, since we are modelling a non-zero mean GP, most of the Laplace approximated probability mass lies in the nonnegative orthant (as is the case with the true posterior). Accordingly, we write: 2 Another reasonable approach would consider each trial as having a different rate function x that is a draw from a GP with a nonstationary mean function ?(t). Instead of inferring a mean rate function x ? , we would learn a distribution of means. We are considering this choice for future work. 3 p(y | ?) = Z n ? ? p(y | x, ?)p(x | ?)dx ? p(y | x , ?)p(x | ?) x (2?) 2 1 |?? + ??1 | 2 , (6) where x? is the mode of the integrand and ?? = ??2x log p(y | x, ?) |x=x? . Note that in general both ? and ?? (and x? , implicitly) are functions of the hyperparameters ?. Thus, Eq. 6 can be differentiated with respect to the hyperparameter set, and an iterative gradient optimization (we used conjugate gradients) can be used to find (locally) optimal hyperparameters. Algorithmic details and the gradient calculations are typical for GP; see [12]. The Laplace approximation also naturally provides confidence intervals from the approximated posterior covariance (? ?1 + ?? )?1 . We can also consider approximate integration over ? using the Laplace approximation above. The Laplace approximation produces a posterior approximation q(x | y, ?) = N x? , (?? + ??1 )?1 and a model evidence approximation q(? | y)P(Eq. 6). The approximate integrated posterior can be written as p(x | y) = E?|y [p(x | y, ?)] ? j q(x | y, ?j )q(?j | y) for some choice of samples ?j (which again gives confidence intervals on the estimates). Since the dimensionality of ? is small, and since we find in practice that the posterior on ? is well behaved (well peaked and unimodal), we find that a simple grid of ?j works very well, thereby obviating MCMC or another sampling scheme. This approximate integration consistently yields better results than a modal hyperparameter set, so we will only consider approximate integration for the remainder of this report. For the Laplace approximation at any value of ?, we require the modal estimate of firing rate x ? , which is simply the MAP estimator: x? = argmax p(x | y) = argmax p(y | x)p(x). x0 (7) x0 Solving this problem is equivalent to solving an unconstrained problem where p(x) is a truncated multivariate normal (but this is not the same as individually truncating each marginal p(x i ); see [14]). Typically a link or squashing function would be included to enforce nonnegativity in x, but this can distort the intensity space in unintended ways. We instead impose the constraint x  0, which reduces the problem to being solved over the (convex) nonnegative orthant. To pose the problem as a convex program, we define f (x) = ?log p(y | x)p(x): f (x) = N  X yX i ?1 ?log xyi ? (? ? 1)log i=1 ?log xy0 + xk ? k=yi?1 yX 0 ?1 k=1 xk ? + n?1 X xk ? + k=yN   + yX N ?1 ?xk ? (8) k=y0 1 (x ? ?1)T ??1 (x ? ?1) + C, 2 (9) where C represents constants with respect to x. From this form follows the Hessian ?2x f (x) = ??1 + ? where ? = ??2x log p(y | x, ?) = B + D, (10) ?2 ?2 where D = diag(x?2 y0 , . . ., 0, . . ., xyi . . ., 0, . . ., xyN ) is positive semidefinite and diagonal. B is block diagonal with N blocks. Each block is rank 1 and associates its positive, nonzero eigenvalue with eigenvector [0, . . ., 0, bTi , 0, . . ., 0]T . The remaining n ? N eigenvalues are zero. Thus, B has total rank N and is positive semidefinite. Since ? is positive definite, it follows then that the Hessian is also positive definite, proving convexity. Accordingly, we can use a log barrier Newton method to efficiently solve for the global MAP estimator of firing rate x? [15]. In the case of multiple spike train observations, we need only add extra terms of negative log likelihood from the observation model. This flows through to the Hessian, where ? 2x f (x) = ??1 + ? and ? = ?1 + . . . + ?m , with ?i ? i ? {1, . . ., m} defined for each observation as in Eq. 10. 4 3.2 Computational Practicality This method involves multiple iterative layers which require many Hessian inversions and other matrix operations (matrix-matrix products and determinants) that cost O(n3 ) in run-time complexity and O(n2 ) in memory, where (x ? IRn ). For any significant data size, a straightforward implementation is hopelessly slow. With 1 ms time resolution (or similar), this method would be restricted to spike trains lasting less than a second, and even this problem would be burdensome. Achieving computational improvements is critical, as a naive implementation is, for all practical purposes, intractable. Techniques to improve computational performance are a subject of study in themselves and are beyond the scope of this paper. We give a brief outline in the following paragraph. In the MAP estimation of x? , since we have analytical forms of all matrices, we avoid explicit representation of any matrix, resulting in linear storage. Hessian inversions are avoided using the matrix inversion lemma and conjugate gradients, leaving matrix vector multiplications as the single costly operation. Multiplication of any vector by ? can be done in linear time, since ? is a (blockwise) vector outer product matrix. Since we have evenly spaced resolution of our data x in time indices ti , ? is Toeplitz; thus multiplication by ? can be done using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) methods [16]. These techniques allow exact MAP estimation with linear storage and nearly linear run time performance. In practice, for example, this translates to solving MAP estimation problems of 103 variables in fractions of a second, with minimal memory load. For the modal hyperparameter scheme (as opposed to approximately integrating over the hyperparameters), gradients of Eq. 6 must also be calculated at each step of the model evidence optimization. In addition to using similar techniques as in the MAP estimation, log determinants and their derivatives (associated with the Laplace approximation) can be accurately approximated by exploiting the eigenstructure of ?. In total, these techniques allow optimal firing rates functions of 103 to 104 variables to be estimated in seconds or minutes (on a modern workstation). These data sizes translate to seconds of spike data at 1 ms resolution, long enough for most electrophysiological trials. This algorithm achieves a reduction from a naive implementation which would require large amounts of memory and would require many hours or days to complete. 4 Results We tested the methods developed here using both simulated neural data, where the true firing rate was known by construction, and in real neural spike trains, where the true firing rate was estimated by a PSTH that averaged many similar trials. The real data used were recorded from macaque premotor cortex during a reaching task (see [17] for experimental method). Roughly 200 repeated trials per neuron were available for the data shown here. We compared the IGIP-likelihood GP method (hereafter, GP IGIP) to other rate estimators (kernel smoothers, Bayesian Adaptive Regressions Splines or BARS [3], and variants of the GP method) using root mean squared difference (RMS) to the true firing rate. PSTH and kernel methods approximate the mean conditional intensity ?(t) = EH(t) [?(t|x(t), H(t))]. For a renewal process, we know (by the time rescaling theorem [7], [11]) that ?(t) = x(t), and thus we can compare the GP IGIP (which finds x(t)) directly to the kernel methods. To confirm that hyperparameter optimization improves performance, we also compared GP IGIP results to maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of x(t) using fixed hyperparameters ?. This result is similar in spirit to previously published likelihood methods with fixed bases or smoothness parameters. To evaluate the importance of an observation model with spike history dependence (the IGIP of Eq. 3), we also compared GP IGIP to an inhomogeneous Poisson (GP IP) observation model (again with a GP prior on x(t); simply ? = 1 in Eq. 3). The hyperparameters ? have prior distributions (p(?) in Eq. 5). For ?f , ?, and ?, we set lognormal priors to enforce meaningful values (i.e. finite, positive, and greater than 1 in the case of ?). Specifically, we set log(?f2 ) ? N (5, 2) , log(?) ? N (2, 2), and log(? ? 1) ? N (0, 100). The variance ?v can be set arbitrarily small, since the GP IGIP method avoids explicit inversions of ? with the matrix inversion lemma (see 3.2). For the approximate integration, we chose a grid consisting of the empirical mean rate for ? (that is, total spike count N divided by total time T ) and (?, log(?f2 ), log(?)) ? [1, 2, 4] ? [4, . . ., 8] ? [0, . . ., 7]. We found this coarse grid (or similar) produced similar results to many other very finely sampled grids. 5 70 Firing Rate (spikes/sec) Firing Rate (spikes/sec) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Time (sec) 1.2 1.4 0 1.6 (a) Data Set L20061107.214.1; 1 spike train 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Time (sec) 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 (b) Data Set L20061107.14.1; 4 spike trains 50 16 14 40 Firing Rate (spikes/sec) Firing Rate (spikes/sec) 45 35 30 25 20 15 10 10 8 6 4 2 5 0 12 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Time (sec) 1.2 1.4 0 1.6 (c) Data Set L20061107.151.5; 8 spike trains 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Time (sec) 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 (d) Data Set L20061107.46.3; 1 spike train Figure 1: Sample GP firing rate estimate. See full description in text. The four examples in Fig. 1 represent experimentally gathered firing rate profiles (according to the methods in [17]). In each of the plots, the empirical average firing rate of the spike trains is shown in bold red. For simulated spike trains, the spike trains were generated from each of these empirical average firing rates using an IGIP (? = 4, comparable to fits to real neural data). For real neural data, the spike train(s) were selected as a subset of the roughly 200 experimentally recorded spike trains that were used to construct the firing rate profile. These spike trains are shown as a train of black dots, each dot indicating a spike event time (the y-axis position is not meaningful). This spike train or group of spike trains is the only input given to each of the fitting models. In thin green and magenta, we have two kernel smoothed estimates of firing rates; each represents the spike trains convolved with a normal distribution of a specified standard deviation (50 and 100 ms). We also smoothed these spike trains with adaptive kernel [18], fixed ML (as described above), BARS [3], and 150 ms kernel smoothers. We do not show these latter results in Fig. 1 for clarity of figures. These standard methods serve as a baseline from which we compare our method. In bold blue, we see x? , the results of the GP IGIP method. The light blue envelopes around the bold blue GP firing rate estimate represent the 95% confidence intervals. Bold cyan shows the GP IP method. This color scheme holds for all of Fig. 1. We then ran all methods 100 times on each firing rate profile, using (separately) simulated and real neural spike trains. We are interested in the average performance of GP IGIP vs. other GP methods (a fixed ML or a GP IP) and vs. kernel smoothing and spline (BARS) methods. We show these results in Fig. 2. The four panels correspond to the same rate profiles shown in Fig. 1. In each panel, the top, middle, and bottom bar graphs correspond to the method on 1, 4, and 8 spike trains, respectively. GP IGIP produces an average RMS error, which is an improvement (or, less often, a deterioration) over a competing method. Fig. 2 shows the percent improvement of the GP IGIP method vs. the competing method listed. Only significant results are shown (paired t-test, p < 0.05). 6 50 GP Methods GP IP Fixed ML short Kernel Smoothers medium long adaptive BARS 50 % % 0 50 0 50 % % 0 50 0 50 % % 0 0 (a) L20061107.214.1; 1,4,8 spike trains 50 GP Methods GP IP Fixed ML short Kernel Smoothers medium long adaptive BARS GP Methods GP IP Fixed ML short Kernel Smoothers medium long adaptive BARS (b) L20061107.14.1; 1,4,8 spike trains 50 % % 0 50 0 50 % % 0 50 0 50 % % 0 0 (c) L20061107.151.5; 1,4,8 spike trains GP Methods GP IP Fixed ML short Kernel Smoothers medium long adaptive BARS (d) L20061107.46.3; 1,4,8 spike trains Figure 2: Average percent RMS improvement of GP IGIP method (with model selection) vs. method indicated in the column title. See full description in text. Blue improvement bars are for simulated spike trains; red improvement bars are for real neural spike trains. The general positive trend indicates improvements, suggesting the utility of this approach. Note that, in the few cases where a kernel smoother performs better (e.g. the long bandwidth kernel in panel (b), real spike trains, 4 and 8 spike trains), outperforming the GP IGIP method requires an optimal kernel choice, which can not be judged from the data alone. In particular, the adaptive kernel method generally performed more poorly than GP IGIP. The relatively poor performance of GP IGIP vs. different techniques in panel (d) is considered in the Discussion section. The data sets here are by no means exhaustive, but they indicate how this method performs under different conditions. 5 Discussion We have demonstrated a new method that accurately estimates underlying neural firing rate functions and provides confidence intervals, given one or a few spike trains as input. This approach is not without complication, as the technical complexity and computational effort require special care. Estimating underlying firing rates is especially challenging due to the inherent noise in spike trains. Having only a few spike trains deprives the method of many trials to reduce spiking noise. It is important here to remember why we care about single trial or small number of trial estimates, since we believe that in general the neural processing on repeated trials is not identical. Thus, we expect this signal to be difficult to find with or without trial averaging. In this study we show both simulated and real neural spike trains. Simulated data provides a good test environment for this method, since the underlying firing rate is known, but it lacks the experimental proof of real neural spike trains (where spiking does not exactly follow a gamma-interval process). For the real neural spike trains, however, we do not know the true underlying firing rate, and thus we can only make comparisons to a noisy, trial-averaged mean rate, which may or may not accurately reflect the true underlying rate of an individual spike train (due to different cognitive processing on different trials). Taken together, however, we believe the real and simulated data give good evidence of the general improvements offered by this method. Panels (a), (b), and (c) in Fig. 2 show that GP IGIP offers meaningful improvements in many cases and a small loss in performance in a few cases. Panel (d) tells a different story. In simulation, GP IGIP generally outperforms the other smoothers (though, by considerably less than in other panels). In real neural data, however, GP IGIP performs the same or relatively worse than other methods. This may indicate that, in the low firing rate regime, the IGIP is a poor model for real neural spiking. 7 It may also be due to our algorithmic approximations (namely, the Laplace approximation, which allows density outside the nonnegative orthant). We will report on this question in future work. Furthermore, some neural spike trains may be inherently ill-suited to analysis. A problem with this and any other method is that of very low firing rates, as only occasional insight is given into the underlying generative process. With spike trains of only a few spikes/sec, it will be impossible for any method to find interesting structure in the firing rate. In these cases, only with many trial averaging can this structure be seen. Several studies have investigated the inhomogeneous gamma and other more general models (e.g. [6], [19]), including the inhomogeneous inverse gaussian (IIG) interval and inhomogeneous Markov interval (IMI) processes. The methods of this paper apply immediately to any log-concave inhomogeneous renewal process in which inhomogeneity is generated by time-rescaling (this includes the IIG and several others). The IMI (and other more sophisticated models) will require some changes in implementation details; one possibility is a variational Bayes approach. Another direction for this work is to consider significant nonstationarity in the spike data. The SE kernel is standard, but it is also stationary; the method will have to compromise between areas of categorically different covariance. Nonstationary covariance is an important question in modelling and remains an area of research [20]. Advances in that field should inform this method as well. Acknowledgments This work was supported by NIH-NINDS-CRCNS-R01, the Michael Flynn SGF, NSF, NDSEGF, Gatsby, CDRF, BWF, ONR, Sloan, and Whitaker. This work was conceived at the UK Spike Train Workshop, Newcastle, UK, 2006; we thank Stuart Baker for helpful discussions during that time. We thank Vikash Gilja, Stephen Ryu, and Mackenzie Risch for experimental, surgical, and animal care assistance. We thank also Araceli Navarro. References [1] B. Yu, A. Afshar, G. Santhanam, S. Ryu, K. Shenoy, and M. Sahani. Advances in NIPS, 17, 2005. [2] R. Kass, V. Ventura, and E. Brown. J. Neurophysiol, 94:8?25, 2005. [3] I. DiMatteo, C. Genovese, and R. Kass. Biometrika, 88:1055?1071, 2001. [4] H. Shimazaki and S. Shinomoto. Neural Computation, 19(6):1503?1527, 2007. [5] D. Endres, M. Oram, J. Schindelin, and P. Foldiak. Advances in NIPS, 20, 2008. [6] R. Barbieri, M. Quirk, L. Frank, M. Wilson, and E. Brown. J Neurosci Methods, 105:25?37, 2001. [7] E. Brown, R. Barbieri, V. Ventura, R. Kass, and L. Frank. Neural Comp, 2002. [8] W. Truccolo, U. Eden, M. Fellows, J. Donoghue, and E. Brown. J Neurophysiol., 93:1074? 1089, 2004. [9] J. Moller, A. Syversveen, and R. Waagepetersen. Scandanavian J. of Stats., 1998. [10] K. Miura, Y. Tsubo, M. Okada, and T. Fukai. J Neurosci., 27:13802?13812, 2007. [11] D. Daley and D. Vere-Jones. An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes. Springer, 2002. [12] C. Rasmussen and C. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [13] M. Kuss and C. Rasmussen. Journal of Machine Learning Res., 6:1679?1704, 2005. [14] W. Horrace. J Multivariate Analysis, 94(1):209?221, 2005. [15] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [16] B. Silverman. Journal of Royal Stat. Soc. Series C: Applied Stat., 33, 1982. [17] C. Chestek, A. Batista, G. Santhanam, B. Yu, A. Afshar, J. Cunningham, V. Gilja, S. Ryu, M. Churchland, and K. Shenoy. J Neurosci., 27:10742?10750, 2007. [18] B. Richmond, L. Optican, and H. Spitzer. J. Neurophys., 64(2), 1990. [19] R. Kass and V. Ventura. Neural Comp, 14:5?15, 2003. [20] C. Paciorek and M. Schervish. 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Generalization by Weight-Elimination with Application to Forecasting Andreas S. Weigend Physics Department Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 David E. Rumelhart Psychology Department Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 Bernardo A. Huberman Dynamics of Computation XeroxPARC Palo Alto, CA 94304 Abstract Inspired by the information theoretic idea of minimum description length, we add a term to the back propagation cost function that penalizes network complexity. We give the details of the procedure, called weight-elimination, describe its dynamics, and clarify the meaning of the parameters involved. From a Bayesian perspective, the complexity term can be usefully interpreted as an assumption about prior distribution of the weights. We use this procedure to predict the sunspot time series and the notoriously noisy series of currency exchange rates. 1 INTRODUCTION Learning procedures for connectionist networks are essentially statistical devices for performing inductive inference. There is a trade-off between two goals: on the one hand, we want such devices to be as general as possible so that they are able to learn a broad range of problems. This recommends large and flexible networks. On the other hand, the true measure of an inductive device is not how well it performs on the examples it has been shown, but how it performs on cases it has not yet seen, i.e., its out-of-sample performance. Too many weights of high precision make it easy for a net to fit the idiosyncrasies or "noise" of the training data and thus fail to generalize well to new cases. This overfitting problem is familiar in inductive inference, such as polynomial curve fitting. There are a number of potential solutions to this problem. We focus here on the so-called minimal network strategy. The underlying hypothesis is: if several nets fit the data equally well, the simplest one will on average provide the best generalization. Evaluating this hypothesis requires (i) some way of measuring simplicity and (ii) a search procedure for finding the desired net. The complexity of an algorithm can be measured by the length of its minimal description 875 876 Weigend, Rumelhart, and Huberman in some language. Rissanen [Ris89] and Cheeseman [Che90] formalized the old but vague intuition of Occam's razor as the information theoretic minimum description length (MDL) criterion: Given some data, the most probable model is the model that minimizes description length = description length(datalmodel) , Y cost .f , ", + description length(model) . , .J V Y error complexity This sum represents the trade-off between residual error and model complexity. The goal is to find a net that has the lowest complexity while fitting the data adequately. The complexity is dominated by the number of bits needed to encode the weights. It is roughly proportional to the number of weights times the number of bits per weight. We focus here on the procedure of weight-elimination that tries to find a net with the smallest number of weights. We compare it with a second approach that tries to minimize the number of bits per weight, thereby creating a net that is not too dependent on the precise values of its weights. 2 WEIGHT-ELIMINATION In 1987, Rumelhart proposed a method for finding minimal nets within the framework of back propagation learning. In this section we explain and interpret the procedure and, for the first time, give the details of its implementation. 1 2.1 METHOD The idea is indeed simple in conception: add to the usual cost function a term which counts the number of parameters, and minimize the sum of performance error and the number of weights by back propagation, (1) The first term measures the performance of the net. In the simplest case, it is the sum squared error over the set of training examples T. The second term measures the size of the net. Its sum extends over all connections C. A represents the relative importance of the complexity term with respect to the performance term. The learning rule is then to change the weights according to the gradient of the entire cost function, continuously doing justice to the trade-off between error and complexity. This differs from methods that consider a set of fixed models, estimate the parameters for each of them, and then compare between the models by considering the number of parameters. The complexity cost as function of wdwo is shown in Figure 1(b). The extreme regions of very large and very small weights are easily interpreted. For IWi I ~ wo, the cost of a weight approaches unity (times A). This justifies the interpretation of the complexity term as a counter of significantly sized weights. For IWi I ~ wo, the cost is close to zero. ''Large'' and "small" are defined with respect to the scale wo, a free parameter of the weight-elimination procedure that has to be chosen. IThe original formulation benefited from conversations with Paul Smolensky. Variations, and alternatives have been developed by Hinton, Hanson and Pratt, Mozer and Smolensky, Ie Cun, Denker and SoHa, Ii, Snapp and Psaltis and others. They are discussed in Weigend [Wei91]. Generalization by Weight-Elimination with Application to Forecasting 0.8 I'\ . prior I probability I 0.5 I\ 0.2 J \ ~ =-~=-=-~-~_:/.. I -4 -3 -2 -1 A=4 A=2 A=l ---- A=O.S I .~~=-~-=-=. 0 1 0.9 cost (c) A 0.8 (a) I I I 2 3 4 0.7 1.3 cost/).. (b) 0.2 -3 1.2 0:= A 0.5 7. 1 0.5 -4 0.6 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0.4 ex weight/wo 4 I I I 0 .0 0.5 1.0 Figure 1: (a) Prior probability distribution for a weight. (b) Corresponding cost. (c) Cost for different values of S/wo as function of 0:' = WI / S, where S = WI + W2. To clarify the meaning of Wo, let us consider a unit which is connected-redundantly-by two weights (WI and wz) to the same signal source. Is it cheaper to have two smaller weights or just one large weight? Interestingly, as shown in Figure l(c), the answer depends on the ratio S/wo, where S = WI + Wz is the relevant sum for the receiving unit. For values of S/wo up to about 1.1, there is only one minimum at 0:' := wt/S = 0.5, i.e., both weights are present and equal. When S/Wo increases, this symmetry gets broken; it is cheaper to set one weight ~ S and eliminate the other one. Weight-decay, proposed by Hinton and by Ie Cun in 1987, is contained in our method of weight-elimination as the special case of large woo In the statistics community, this limit (cost ex w;) is known as ridge regression. The scale parameter Wo thus allows us to express a preference for fewer large weights (wo small) or many small weights (wo large). In our experience, choosing Wo of order unity is good for activations of order unity. 2.2 INTERPRETATION AS PRIOR PROBABILITY Further insight can be gained by viewing the cost as the negative log likelihood of the network, given the data. In this framework 2 , the error term is the negative logarithm of the probability of the data given the net, and the complexity term is the negative logarithm of the prior probability of the weights. The cost function corresponds approximately to the assumption that the weights come from a mixture of two distributions. Relevant weights are drawn from a uniform distribution (to 2This perspective is expanded in a forthcoming paper by Rumelhart et ai. [RDGC92]. 877 878 Weigend, Rumelhart, and Huberman allow for normalization of the probability, up to a certain maximum size). Weights that are merely the result of "noise" are drawn from a Gaussian-like distribution centered on zero; they are expected to be small. We show the prior probability for our complexity term for several values of ,X in Figure l(a). If we wish to approximate the bump around zero by a Gaussian, its variance is given by (1'2 == w5;,X. Its width scales with Woo Perhaps surprisingly the innocent weighting factor ,x now influences the width: the variance of the "noise" is inversely proportional to,X. The larger ,x is, the closer to zero a weight must be to have a reasonable probability of being a member of the "noise" distribution. Also, the larger ,x is, the more "pressure" small weights feel to become even smaller. The following technical section describes how ,x is dynamically adjusted in training. From the perspective taken in Section 2.1, the usual increase of ,x during training corresponds to attaching more importance to the complexity term. From the perspective developed in this section, it corresponds to sharpening the peak of the weight distribution around zero. 2.3 DETAILS Although the basic form of the weight-elimination procedure is simple, it is sensitive to the choice of ,X.3 If ,x is too small, it will have no effect. If ,x is too large, all of the weights will be driven to zero. Worse, a value of ,x which is useful for a problem that is easily learned may be too large for a hard problem, and a problem which is difficult in one region (at the start, for example) may require a larger value of ,x later on. We have developed some rules that make the performance relatively insensitive to the exact values of the parameters. We start with A = 0 so that the network can initially use all of its resources. A is changed after each epoch. It is usually gently incremented, sometimes decremented, and, in emergencies, cut down. The choice among these three actions depends on the value of the error on the training set The subscript n denotes the number of the epoch that has just finished. (Note that is only the first term of the cost function (Equation 1). Since gradient descent minimizes the sum of both terms, en by itself can decrease or increase.) en is compared to three quantities, the first two derived from previous values of that error itself, the last one given externally: en. en ? en-l Previous error. ? An Average error (exponentially weighted over the past). It is defined as An = "YA n - 1 + (1 - "Y)en (with "Y relatively close to 1). 1) Desired error, the externally provided performance criterion. The strategy for choosing 1) depends on the specific problem. For example, "solutions" with an error larger than 1) might not be acceptable. Dr, we may have observed (by monitoring the out-of-sample performance during training) that overfitting starts when a certain in-sample error is reached. Dr, we may have some other estimate of the amount of noise in the training data. For toy problems, derived from approximating analytically defined functions (where perfect performance on the training data can be expected), a good choice is 1) = O. For hard problems, such as the prediction of currency exchange rates, 1) is set just below the error that corresponds to chance performance, since overfitting would occur if the error was reduced further. After each epoch in training, we evaluate whether is above or below each of these quantities. This gives eight possibilities. Three actions are possible: ? en ? A ~ A +dA In six cases, we increment A slightly. These are the situations in which things are going well: the error is already below than the criterion (en < 1)) and/or is still falling (en < en-d. 3The reason that A appears at all is because weight-elimination only deals with a part of the complete network complexity, and this only approximately. In a theory rigidly derived from the minimum description length principle, no such parameter would appear. Generalization by Weight-Elimination with Application to Forecasting Incrementing ~ means attaching more importance to the complexity term and making the Gaussian a little sharper. Note that the primary parameter is actually .1~. Its size is fairly small, of order 10-6 ? In the remaining two cases, the error is worse than the criterion and it has grown compared to just before (En ~ En - 1 ). The action depends on its relation to its long term average An . ? ~ - ~ - .1~ [if En ~ En - 1 A En < An A En ~ 1)] In the less severe of those two cases, the performance is still improving with respect to the long term average (En < A). Since the error can have grown only slightly, we reduce ~ slightly. ? ~ - 0.9 ~ [if En ~ En - 1 A En ~ An A En ~ 1)] In this last case, the error has increased and exceeds its long term average. This can happen for two reasons. The error might have grown a lot in the last iteration. Or, it might not have improved by much in the whole period covered by the long term average, i.e., the network might be trapped somewhere before reaching the performance criterion. The value of ~ is cut, hopefully prevent weight-elimination from devouring the whole net. We have found that this set of heuristics for finding a minimal network while achieving a desired level of performance on the training data works rather well on a wide range of tasks. We give two examples of applications of weight-elimination. In the second example we show how A changes during training. 3 APPLICATION TO TIME SERIES PREDICTION A central problem in science is predicting the future of temporal sequences; examples range from forecasting the weather to anticipating currency exchange rates. The desire to know the future is often the driving force behind the search for laws in science. The ability to forecast the behavior of a system hinges on two types of knowledge. The first and most powerful one is the knowledge of the laws underlying a given phenomenon. When expressed in the form of equations, the future outcome of an experiment can be predicted. The second, albeit less powerful, type of knowledge relies On the discovery of empirical regularities without resorting to knowledge of the underlying mechanism. In this case, the key problem is to determine which aspects of the data are merely idiosyncrasies and which aspects are truly indicators of the intrinsic behavior. This issue is particularly serious for real world data, which are limited in precision and sample size. We have applied nets with weight-elimination to time series of sunspots and currency exchange rates. 3.1 SUNSPOT SERIES 4 When applied to predict the famous yearly sunspot averages, weight-elimination reduces the number of hidden units to three. Just having a small net, however, is not the ultimate goal: predictive power is what counts. The net has one half the out-of-sample error (on iterated single step predictions) of the benchmark model by Tong [Ton90]. What happens when we enlarge the input size from twelve, the optimal size for the benchmark model, to four times that size? As shown in [WRH90], the performance does not deteriorate (as might have been expected from a less dense distribution of data points in higher dimensional spaces). Instead, the net manages to ignore irrelevant information. 4We here only briefly summarize our results on sunspots. Details have been published in [WHR90) and [WRH90). 879 880 Weigend, Rumelhart, and Huberman 3.2 CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 5 We use daily exchange rates (or prices with respect to the US Dollar) for five currencies (German Mark (DM), Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Pound Sterling and Canadian Dollar) to predict the returns at day t, defined as ._ 1't.- In ~ -- In (1 Pt-l + Pt - Pt Pt-l -1) f"V ,--P_t_-_P_t_-_l ,...., Pt-l (2) For small changes, the return is the difference to the previous day normalized by the price Pt -1. Since different currencies and different days of the week may have different dynamics, we pick for one day (Monday) and one currency (OM). We define the task to be to learn Monday DM dynamics: given exchange rate information through a Monday, predict the DM - US$ rate for the following day. The net has 45 inputs for past daily DM returns, 5 inputs for the present Monday's returns of all available currencies, and 11 inputs for additional information (trends and volatilities), solely derived from the original exchange rates. The k day trend at day t is the mean of the returns of the k last days, 1't ? Similarly, the k day volatility is defined to be the standard deviation of the returns 0 the k last days. t 2:!-ktl The inputs are fully connected to the 5 sigmoidal hidden units with range (-1, 1). The hidden units are fully connected to two output units. The first one is to predict the next day return, 1't+l. This is a linear unit, trained with quadratic error. The second output unit focuses on the sign of the change. Its target value is one when the price goes up and zero otherwise. Since we want the unit to predict the probability that the return is positive, we choose a sigmoidal unit with range (0,1) and minimize cross entropy error. The central question is whether the net is able to extract any signal from the training set that generalizes to the test sets. The performance is given as function of training time in epochs in Figure 2. 6 The result is that the out-of-sample prediction is significantly better than chance. Weightelimination reliably extracts a signal that accounts for between 2.5 and 4.0 per cent of the variance, corresponding to a correlation coefficient of 0 .21 ? 0.03 for both test sets. In contrast, nets without precautions against overfitting show hopeless out-of-sample performance almost before the training has started. Also, none of the control experiments (randomized series and time-reversed series) reaches any significant predictability. The dynamics of weight-elimination, discussed in Section 2.3, is also shown in Figure 2. A first grows very slowly. Then, around epoch 230, the error reaches the performance SWe thank Blake LeBaron for sending us the data. 6The error of the unit predicting the return is expressed as the gyerage r.elative y"ariance arv S = 2:kES (target k - prediction k)2 2:kES (targetk - = - 1 cri- means)2 1 '" ( L..t rk Ns kES - ...... rk )2 (3) The averaging (division by N s, the number of observations in set S) makes the measure independent of the size of the set. The normalization (division by ~, the estimated variance of the data in S), removes the dependence on the dynamic range of the data. Since the mean of the returns is close to zero, the random walk hypothesis corresponds to arv 1.0. = Generalization by Weight-Elimination with Application to Forecasting training with added noise training with weight-elimination ~~~ ...~ ... ~--~=---------------~--~1.00F_~~_~_~_-~----------------~--~----~ :-=--:>~,-~.~~i:~:::. ::: '-><',-----=:!>E;;~:~? aN (r-unit) 0.92 ~-+-.~~~+-__~~+-~~~~o.oo~-+-+~~~+-__-+__~~~~~ ~-~-~-~==~~~---:----~----~.~~--------~~--~~--~----~ -....... -... - ... -. r.m.s. .... . . ,. .. , .... ~- ~. ~~ " error (s-ul1 It.I ' " ........ "\ .. , '. -- - - - - - - ? ?-,--... --~ . . : .494 492 ., . . \ . :.. .... ;.... .. ...~ :400 ..., ...;....\ ......{ ....._......... : .488 . ?'?il .486I1...----1..--L--L...J.......L.....L..JI....L-_ _' - -.........~.........-L..JL.....L..J......... 50 70 epochs 200 400 700 training (5/75... 12/84) (501) early test (9/73... 4/75) (87) late test (12/84... 5/87) (128) Figure 2: Learning curves of currency exchange rates for training with weight-elimination (left) and training with added noise (right). In-sample predictions are shown as solid lines, out-of sample predictions in grey and dashed. Top: average relative variance of the unit predicting the return (r-unit). Center: root-mean-square error of the unit predicting the sign (s-unit). Bottom: Weighting of the complexity term. criterion. 7 The network starts to focus on the elimination of weights (indicated by growing A) without further reducing its in-sample errors (solid lines), since that would probably correspond to overfitting. We also compare training with weight-elimination with a method intended to make the parameters more robust. We add noise to the inputs, independently to each input unit, different at each presentation of each pattern. 8 This can be viewed as artificially enlarging the training set by smearing the data points around their centers. Smoother boundaries of the "basins of attraction" are the result. Viewed from the description length angle, it means saving bits by specifying the (input) weights with less preciSion, as opposed to eliminating some of them. The corresponding learning curves are shown on the right hand side of Figure 2. This simple method also successfully avoids overfitting. 7Guided by cross-validation, we set the criterion (for the sum of the squared errors from both outputs) to 650. With this value, the choice of the other parameters is not critical, as long as they are fairly small. We used a learning rate of 2.5 x 10-4, no momentum, and an increment dA of 2.5 x 10-6 ? If the criterion was set to zero, the balance between error and complexity would be fragile in such a hard problem. 8We add Gaussian noise with a rather large standard deviation of 1.5 times the signal. The exact value is not crucial: similar performance is obtained for noise levels between 0.7 and 2.0. 881 882 Weigend, Rumelhart, and Huberman Finally, we analyze the weight-eliminated network solution. The weights from the hidden units to the outputs are in a region where the complexity term acts as a counter. In fact only one or two hidden units remain. The weights from the inputs to the dead hidden units are also eliminated. For time series prediction, weight-elimination acts as hidden-unit elimination. The weights between inputs and remaining hidden units are fairly small. Weight-elimination is in its quadratic region and prevents them from growing too large. Consequently, the activation of the hidden units lies in ( -0.4,0.4). This prompted us to try a linear net where our procedure also works surprisingly well, yielding comparable performance to sigmoids. Since all inputs are scaled to zero mean and unit standard deviation, we can gauge the importance of different inputs directly by the size of the weights. With weight-elimination, it becomes fairly clear which quantities are important, since connections that do not manage to reduce the error are not worth their price. A detailed deSCription will be published in [WHR91]. Weight-elimination enhances the interpretability of the solution. To summarize, we have a working procedure that finds small nets and can help prevent overfitting. With our rules for the dynamics of A, weight-elimination is fairly stable. values of most parameters. In the examples we analyzed, the network manages to pick out some significant part of the dynamics underlying the time series. References [Che90] [RDGC92] [Ris89] [Ton90] [Wei91] [WHR90] [WHR91] [WRH90] Peter C. Cheeseman. On finding the most probable model. In J. Shrager and P. Langley (eds.) Computational Models of Scientific Discovery and Theory Formation, p. 73. Morgan Kaufmann, 1990. David E. Rumelhart, Richard Durbin, Richard Golden, and Yves Chauvin. Backpropagation: theoretical foundations. In Y. Chauvin and D. E. Rumelhart (eds.) Backpropagation and Connectionist Theory. Lawrence Erlbaum, 1992. Jorma Rissanen. Stochastic Complexity in Statistical Inquiry. World Scientific, 1989. Howell Tong. Non-linear Time Series: a Dynamical System Approach. Oxford University Press, 1990. Andreas S. Weigend. Connectionist Architectures for Time Series Prediction. PhD thesis, Stanford University, 1991. (in preparation) Andreas S. Weigend, Bernardo A. Huberman, and David E. Rumelhart. Predicting the future: a connectionist approach. International Journal ofNeural Systems, 1:193, 1990. Andreas S. Weigend, Bernardo A. Huberman, and David E. Rumelhart. Predicting sunspots and currency rates with connectionist networks. In M. Casdagli and S. Eubank (eds.) Proceedings of the 1990 NATO Workshop on Nonlinear Modeling and Forecasting (Santa Fe). Addison-Wesley, 1991. Andreas S. Weigend, David E. Rumelhart, and Bernardo A. Huberman. Backpropagation, weight-elimination and time series prediction. In D. S.1buretzky, J. L. Elman, T. J. Sejnowski, and G. E. Hinton (eds.) Proceedings of the 1990 Connectionist Models Summer School, p 105. Morgan Kaufmann, 1990.
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Bundle Methods for Machine Learning Alexander J. Smola, S.V. N. Vishwanathan, Quoc V. Le NICTA and Australian National University, Canberra, Australia [email protected], {SVN.Vishwanathan, Quoc.Le}@nicta.com.au Abstract We present a globally convergent method for regularized risk minimization problems. Our method applies to Support Vector estimation, regression, Gaussian Processes, and any other regularized risk minimization setting which leads to a convex optimization problem. SVMPerf can be shown to be a special case of our approach. In addition to the unified framework we present tight convergence bounds, which show that our algorithm converges in O(1/) steps to  precision for general convex problems and in O(log(1/)) steps for continuously differentiable problems. We demonstrate in experiments the performance of our approach. 1 Introduction In recent years optimization methods for convex models have seen significant progress. Starting from the active set methods described by Vapnik [17] increasingly sophisticated algorithms for solving regularized risk minimization problems have been developed. Some of the most exciting recent developments are SVMPerf [5] and the Pegasos gradient descent solver [12]. The former computes gradients of the current solution at every step and adds those to the optimization problem. Joachims [5] prove an O(1/2 ) rate of convergence. For Pegasos Shalev-Shwartz et al. [12] prove an O(1/) rate of convergence, which suggests that Pegasos should be much more suitable for optimization. In this paper we extend the ideas of SVMPerf to general convex optimization problems and a much wider class of regularizers. In addition to this, we present a formulation which does not require the solution of a quadratic program whilst in practice enjoying the same rate of convergence as algorithms of the SVMPerf family. Our error analysis shows that the rates achieved by this algorithm are considerably better than what was previously known for SVMPerf, namely the algorithm enjoys O(1/) convergence and O(log(1/)) convergence, whenever the loss is sufficiently smooth. An important feature of our algorithm is that it automatically takes advantage of smoothness in the problem. Our work builds on [15], which describes the basic extension of SVMPerf to general convex problems. The current paper provides a) significantly improved performance bounds which match better what can be observed in practice and which apply to a wide range of regularization terms, b) a variant of the algorithm which does not require quadratic programming, yet enjoys the same fast rates of convergence, and c) experimental data comparing the speed of our solver to Pegasos and SVMPerf. Due to space constraints we relegate the proofs to an technical report [13]. 2 Problem Setting Denote by x ? X and y ? Y patterns and labels respectively and let l(x, y, w) be a loss function which is convex in w ? W, where either W = Rd (linear classifier), or W is a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space for kernel methods. Given a set of m training patterns {xi , yi }m i=1 the regularized risk 1 functional which many estimation methods strive to minimize can be written as m J(w) := Remp (w) + ??(w) where Remp (w) := 1 X l(xi , yi , w). m i=1 (1) 2 ?(w) is a smooth convex regularizer such as 12 kwk , and ? > 0 is a regularization term. Typically ? is cheap to compute and to minimize whereas the empirical risk term Remp (w) is computationally expensive to deal with. For instance, in the case of intractable graphical models it requires approximate inference methods such as sampling or semidefinite programming. To make matters worse the number of training observations m may be huge. We assume that the empirical risk Remp (w) is nonnegative. If J is differentiable we can use standard quasi-Newtons methods like LBFGS even for large values of m [8]. Unfortunately, it is not straightforward to extend these algorithms to optimize a non-smooth objective. In such cases one has to resort to bundle methods [3], which are based on the following elementary observation: for convex functions a first order Taylor approximation is a lower bound. So is the maximum over a set of Taylor approximations. Furthermore, the Taylor approximation is exact at the point of expansion. The idea is to replace Remp [w] by these lower bounds and to optiFigure 1: A lower bound on the mize the latter in conjunction with ?(w). Figure 1 gives geometric convex empirical risk Remp (w) intuition. In the remainder of the paper we will show that 1) This exobtained by computing three tan- tends a number of existing algorithms; 2) This method enjoys good gents on the entire function. rates of convergence; and 3) It works well in practice. Note that there is no need for Remp [w] to decompose into individual losses in an additive fashion. For instance, scores, such as Precision@k [4], or SVM Ranking scores do not satisfy this property. Likewise, estimation problems which allow for an unregularized common constant offset or adaptive margin settings using the ?-trick fall into this category. The only difference is that in those cases the derivative of Remp [w] with respect to w no more decomposes trivially into a sum of gradients. 3 3.1 Bundle Methods Subdifferential and Subgradient Before we describe the bundle method, it is necessary to clarify a key technical point. The subgradient is a generalization of gradients appropriate for convex functions, including those which are not necessarily smooth. Suppose w is a point where a convex function F is finite. Then a subgradient is the normal vector of any tangential supporting hyperplane of F at w. Formally ? is called a subgradient of F at w if, and only if, F (w0 ) ? F (w) + hw0 ? w, ?i ?w0 . (2) The set of all subgradients at a point is called the subdifferential, and is denoted by ?w F (w). If this set is not empty then F is said to be subdifferentiable at w. On the other hand, if this set is a singleton then, the function is said to be differentiable at w. 3.2 The Algorithm Denote by wt ? W the values of w which are obtained by successive steps of our method, Let at ? W, bt ? R, and set w0 = 0, a0 = 0, b0 = 0. Then, the Taylor expansion coefficients of Remp [wt ] can be written as at+1 := ?w Remp (wt ) and bt+1 := Remp (wt ) ? hat+1 , wt i . (3) Note that we do not require Remp to be differentiable: if Remp is not differentiable at wt we simply choose any element of the subdifferential as at+1 . Since each Taylor approximation is a lower bound, we may take their maximum to obtain that Remp (w) ? maxt hat , wi + bt . Moreover, by 2 Algorithm 1 Bundle Method() Initialize t = 0, w0 = 0, a0 = 0, b0 = 0, and J0 (w) = ??(w) repeat Find minimizer wt := argminw Jt (w) Compute gradient at+1 and offset bt+1 . Increment t ? t + 1. until t ?  virtue of the fact that Remp is a non-negative function we can write the following lower bounds on Remp and J respectively: Rt (w) := max hat0 , wi + bt0 and Jt (w) := ??(w) + Rt (w). 0 (4) t ?t By construction Rt0 ? Rt ? Remp and Jt0 ? Jt ? J for all t0 ? t. Define w? := argmin J(w), ?t := Jt+1 (wt ) ? Jt (wt ), w wt := argmin Jt (w), t := min Jt0 +1 (wt0 ) ? Jt (wt ). 0 and t ?t w The following lemma establishes some useful properties of ?t and t . Lemma 1 We have Jt0 (wt0 ) ? Jt (wt ) ? J(w? ) ? J(wt ) = Jt+1 (wt ) for all t0 ? t. Furthermore, t is monotonically decreasing with t ? t+1 ? Jt+1 (wt+1 ) ? Jt (wt ) ? 0. Also, t upper bounds the distance from optimality via ?t ? t ? mint0 ?t J(wt0 ) ? J(w? ). 3.3 Dual Problem Optimization is often considerably easier in the dual space. In fact, we will show that we need not know ?(w) at all, instead it is sufficient to work with its Fenchel-Legendre dual ?? (?) := supw hw, ?i ? ?(w). If ?? is a so-called Legendre function [e.g. 10] the w at which the supremum is attained can be written as w = ?? ?? (?). In the sequel we will always assume that ?? is twice P 2 differentiable and Legendre. Examples include ?? (?) = 12 k?k or ?? (?) = i exp[?]i . Theorem 2 Let ? ? Rt , denote by A = [a1 , . . . , at ] the matrix whose columns are the (sub)gradients, let b = [b1 , . . . , bt ]. The dual problem of minimize Jt (w) := max hat0 , wi + bt0 + ??(w) is 0 (5) maximize Jt? (?) := ? ??? (???1 A?) + ?> b subject to ? ? 0 and k?k1 = 1. (6) w t ?t ? Furthermore, the optimal wt and ?t are related by the dual connection wt = ??? (???1 A?t ). 2 2 Recall that for ?(w) = 21 kwk2 the Fenchel-Legendre dual is given by ?? (?) = 12 k?k2 . This is commonly used in SVMs and Gaussian Processes. The following corollary is immediate: Corollary 3 Define Q := A> A, i.e. Quv := hau , av i. For quadratic regularization, i.e. 2 minimizew max(0, maxt0 ?t hat0 , wi + bt0 ) + ?2 kwk2 the dual becomes maximize ? ? 1 > 2? ? Q? + ?> b subject to ? ? 0 and k?k1 = 1. (7) This means that for quadratic regularization the dual optimization problem is a quadratic program where the number of variables equals the number of gradients computed previously. Since t is typically in the order of 10s to 100s, the resulting QP is very cheap to solve. In fact, we don?t even need to know the gradients explicitly. All that is required to define the QP are the inner products between gradient vectors hau , av i. Later in this section we propose a variant which does away with the quadratic program altogether while preserving most of the appealing convergence properties of Algorithm 1. 3 3.4 Examples Structured Estimation Many estimation problems [14, 16] can be written in terms of a piecewise linear loss function l(x, y, w) = max h?(x, y 0 ) ? ?(x, y), wi + ?(y, y 0 ) 0 (8) y ?Y for some suitable joint feature map ?, and a loss function ?(y, y 0 ). It follows from Section 3.1 that a subdifferential of (8) is given by ?w l(x, y, w) = ?(x, y ? ) ? ?(x, y) where y ? := argmax h?(x, y 0 ) ? ?(x, y), wi + ?(y, y 0 ). (9) y 0 ?Y Since Remp is defined as a summation of loss terms, this allows us to apply Algorithm 1 directly for risk minimization: at every iteration t we find all maximal constraint violators for each (xi , yi ) pair and compute the composite gradient vector. This vector is then added to the convex program we have so far. Joachims [5] pointed out this idea for the special case of ?(x, y) = y?(x) and y ? {?1}, that is, binary loss. Effectively, by defining a joint feature map as the sum over individual feature maps and by defining a joint loss ? as the sum over individual losses SVMPerf performs exactly the same operations as we described above. Hence, for losses of type (8) our algorithm is a direct extension of SVMPerf to structured estimation. Exponential Families One of the advantages of our setting is that it applies to any convex loss function, as long as there is an efficient way of computing the gradient. That is, we can use it for cases where we are interested in modeling Z p(y|x; w) = exp(h?(x, y), wi ? g(w|x)) where g(w|x) = log exp h?(x, y 0 ), wi dy 0 (10) Y That is, g(w|x) is the conditional log-partition function. This type of losses includes settings such as Gaussian Process classification and Conditional Random Fields [1]. Such settings have been studied by Lee et al. [6] in conjunction with an `1 regularizer ?(w) = kwk1 for structure discovery in graphical models. Choosing l to be the negative log-likelihood it follows that Remp (w) = m X g(w|xi ) ? h?(xi , yi ), wi and ?w Remp (w) = i=1 m X Ey0 ?p(y0 |xi ;w) [?(xi , y 0 )] ? ?(xi , yi ). i=1 This means that column generation methods are therefore directly applicable to Gaussian Process estimation, a problem where large scale solvers were somewhat more difficult to find. It also shows that adding a new model becomes a matter of defining a new loss function and its corresponding gradient, rather than having to build a full solver from scratch. 4 Convergence Analysis While Algorithm 1 is intuitively plausible, it remains to be shown that it has good rates of convergence. In fact, past results, such as those by Tsochantaridis et al. [16] suggest an O(1/2 ) rate, which would make the application infeasible in practice. We use a duality argument similar to those put forward in [11, 16], both of which share key techniques with [18]. The crux of our proof argument lies in showing that t ? t+1 ? Jt+1 (wt+1 ) ? Jt (wt ) (see Theorem 4) is sufficiently bounded away from 0. In other words, since t bounds the distance from the optimality, at every step Algorithm 1 makes sufficient progress towards the optimum. Towards this end, we first observe that by strong duality the values of the primal and dual problems (5) and (6) are equal at optimality. Hence, any progress in Jt+1 can be computed in the dual. Next, we observe that the solution of the dual problem (6) at iteration t, denoted by ?t , forms a feasible set of parameters for the dual problem (6) at iteration t + 1 by means of the parameterization (?t , 0), i.e. by padding ?t with a 0. The value of the objective function in this case equals Jt (wt ). 4 To obtain a lower bound on the improvement due to Jt+1 (wt+1 ) we perform a line search along ((1? ?)?t , ?) in (6). The constraint ? ? [0, 1] ensures dual feasibility. We will bound this improvement in terms of ?t . Note that, in general, solving the dual problem (6) results in an increase which is larger than that obtained via the line search. The line search is employed in the analysis only for analytic tractability. We aim to lower-bound t ?t+1 in terms of t and solve the resultant difference equation. Depending on J(w) we will be able to prove two different convergence results. (a) For regularizers ?(w) for which ??2 ?? (?) ? H ? we first experience a regime of progress linear in ?t and a subsequent slowdown to improvements 2 which are quadratic in ?t . (b) Under the above conditions, if furthermore ?w J(w) ? H, i.e. the Hessian of J is bounded, we have linear convergence throughout. We first derive lower bounds on the improvement Jt+1 (wt+1 ) ? Jt (wt ), then the fact that for (b) the bounds are better. Finally we prove the convergence rates by solving the difference equation in t . This reasoning leads to the following theorem: Theorem 4 Assume that k?w Remp (w)k ? G for all w ? W , where W is some domain of interest containing all wt0 for t0 ? t. Also assume that ?? has bounded curvature, i.e. let ??2 ?? (?) ? H ?  ?? where ? for all ? ? ???1 A? ? ? 0 and k? ?k1 ? 1 . In this case we have t ? t+1 ? ?2t min(1, ??t /4G2 H ? ) ? 2t min(1, ?t /4G2 H ? ). 2 J(w) ? H, then we have Furthermore, if ?w ? if ?t > 4G2 H ? /? ??t /2 ? t ? t+1 ? ?/8H if 4G2 H ? /? ? ?t ? H/2 ? ? ??t /4HH otherwise (11) (12) Note that the error keeps on halving initially and settles for a somewhat slower rate of convergence after that, whenever the Hessian of the overall risk is bounded from above. The reason for the difference in the convergence bound for differentiable and non-differentiable losses is that in the former case the gradient of the risk converges to 0 as we approach optimality, whereas in the former case, no such guarantees hold (e.g. when minimizing |x| the (sub)gradient does not vanish at the optimum). Two facts are worthwhile noting: a) The dual of many regularizers, e.g. squares norm, squared `p norm, and the entropic regularizer second derivative. See e.g. [11] for a discussion have bounded and details. Thus our condition ??2 ?? (?) ? H ? is not unreasonable. b) Since the improvements decrease with the size of ?t we may replace ?t by t in both bounds and conditions without any ill effect (the bound only gets worse). Applying the previous result we obtain a convergence theorem for bundle methods. Theorem 5 Assume that J(w) ? 0 for all w. Under the assumptions of Theorem 4 we can give the following convergence guarantee for Algorithm 1. For any  < 4G2 H ? /? the algorithm converges to the desired precision after n ? log2 ?J(0) 8G2 H ? + ?4 G2 H ? ? (13) steps. If furthermore the Hessian of J(w) is bounded, convergence to any  ? H/2 takes at most the following number of steps: n ? log2   4HH ? ?J(0) 4H ? + max 0, H ? 8G2 H ? /? + log(H/2) 2 ? 4G H ? ? (14) Several observations are in order: firstly, note that the number of iterations only depends logarithmically on how far the initial value J(0) is away from the optimal solution. Compare this to the result of Tsochantaridis et al. [16], where the number of iterations is linear in J(0). 5 Secondly, we have an O(1/) dependence in the number of iterations in the non-differentiable case. This matches the rate of Shalev-Shwartz et al. [12]. In addition to that, the convergence is O(log(1/)) for continuously differentiable problems. Note that whenever Remp (w) is the average over many piecewise linear functions Remp (w) behaves essentially like a function with bounded Hessian as long as we are taking large enough steps not to ?notice? the fact that the term is actually nonsmooth. 2 1 Remark 6 For = dual Hessian is exactly H ? = 1. Moreover we know that ?(w) 2 kwk the 2 2 H ? ? since ?w J(w) = ? + ?w Remp (w) . Effectively the rate of convergence of the algorithm is governed by upper bounds on the primal and dual curvature of the objective function. This acts like a condition number of the problem ? for ?(w) = 12 w> Qw the dual is ?? (z) = 12 z > Q?1 z, hence the largest eigenvalues of Q and Q?1 would have a significant influence on the convergence. In terms of ? the number of iterations needed for convergence is O(??1 ). In practice the iteration count does increase with ?, albeit not as badly as predicted. This is likely due to the fact that the empirical risk Remp (w) is typically rather smooth and has a certain inherent curvature which acts as a natural regularizer in addition to the regularization afforded by ??[w]. 5 A Linesearch Variant The convergence analysis in Theorem 4 relied on a one-dimensional line search. Algorithm 1, however, uses a more complex quadratic program to solve the problem. Since even the simple updates promise good rates of convergence it is tempting to replace the corresponding step in the bundle update. This can lead to considerable savings in particular for smaller problems, where the time spent in the quadratic programming solver is a substantial fraction of the total runtime. 2 To keep matters simple, we only consider quadratic regularization ?(w) := 12 kwk . Note that ? Jt+1 (?) := Jt+1 ((1 ? ?)?t , ?) is a quadratic function in ?, regardless of the choice of Remp [w]. Hence a line search only needs to determine first and second derivative as done in the proof 2 of Theorem 4. It can be shown that ?? Jt+1 (0) = ?t and ??2 Jt+1 (0) = ? ?1 k?w J(wt )k = 2 ? ?1 k?wt + at+1 k . Hence the optimal value of ? is given by ? = min(1, ??t /k?wt + at+1 k22 ). (15) This means that we may update wt+1 = (1 ? ?)wt ? ?? at+1 . In other words, we need not store past gradients for the update. To obtain ?t note that we Remp (wt ) as part of the Taylor  are computing  approximation step. Finally, Rt (wt ) is given by w> A + b ?t , hence it satisfies the same update 2 relations. In particular, the fact that w> A? = ? kwk means that the only quantity we need to cache is b> ?t as an auxiliary variable rt in order to compute ?t efficiently. Experiments show that this simplified algorithm has essentially the same convergence properties. 6 Experiments In this section we show experimental results that demonstrate the merits of our algorithm and its analysis. Due to space constraints, we report results of experiments with two large datasets namely Astro-Physics (astro-ph) and Reuters-CCAT (reuters-ccat) [5, 12]. For a fair comparison with existing solvers we use the quadratic regularizer ?(w) := ?2 kwk2 , and the binary hinge loss. In our first experiment, we address the rate of convergence and its dependence on the value of ?. In Figure 2 we plot t as a function of iterations for various values of ? using the QP solver at every iteration to solve the dual problem (6) to optimality. Initially, we observe super-linear convergence; this is consistent with our analysis. Surprisingly, even though theory predicts sub-linear speed of convergence for non-differentiable losses like the binary hinge loss (see (11)), our solver exhibits linear rates of convergence predicted only for differentiable functions (see (12)). We conjecture that the average over many piecewise linear functions, Remp (w), behaves essentially like a smooth function. As predicted, the convergence speed is inversely proportional to the value of ?. 6 Figure 2: We plot t as a function of the number of iterations. Note the logarithmic scale in t . Left: astro-ph; Right: reuters-ccat. Figure 3: Top: Objective function value as a function of time. Bottom: Objective function value as a function of iterations. Left: astro-ph, Right: reuters-ccat. The black line indicates the final value of the objective function + 0.001 . In our second experiment, we compare the convergence speed of two variants of the bundle method, namely, with a QP solver in the inner loop (which essentially boils down to SVMPerf) and the line search variant which we described in Section 5. We contrast these solvers with Pegasos [12] in the batch setting. Following [5] we set ? = 104 for reuters-ccat and ? = 2.104 for astro-ph. Figure 3 depicts the evolution of the primal objective function value as a function of both CPU time as well as the number of iterations. Following Shalev-Shwartz et al. [12] we investigate the time required by various solvers to reduce the objective value to within 0.001 of the optimum. This is depicted as a black horizontal line in our plots. As can be seen, Pegasos converges to this region quickly. Nevertheless, both variants of the bundle method converge to this value even faster (line search is slightly slower than Pegasos on astro-ph, but this is not always the case for many other large datasets we tested on). Note that both line search and Pegasos converge to within 0.001 precision rather quickly, but they require a large number of iterations to converge to the optimum. 7 Related Research Our work is closely related to Shalev-Shwartz and Singer [11] who prove mistake bounds for online algorithms by lower bounding the progress in the dual. Although not stated explicitly, essentially the same technique of lower bounding the dual improvement was used by Tsochantaridis et al. [16] to show polynomial time convergence of the SVMStruct algorithm. The main difference however is that Tsochantaridis et al. [16] only work with a quadratic objective function while the framework 7 proposed by Shalev-Shwartz and Singer [11] can handle arbitrary convex functions. In both cases, a weaker analysis led to O(1/2 ) rates of convergence for nonsmooth loss functions. On the other hand, our results establish a O(1/) rate for nonsmooth loss functions and O(log(1/)) rates for smooth loss functions under mild technical assumptions. Another related work is SVMPerf [5] which solves the SVM estimation problem in linear time. SVMPerf finds a solution with accuracy  in O(md/(?2 )) time, where the m training patterns ? xi ? Rd . This bound was improved by Shalev-Shwartz et al. [12] to O(1/??) for obtaining an accuracy of  with confidence 1 ? ?. Their algorithm, Pegasos, essentially performs stochastic ? (sub)gradient descent but projects the solution back onto the L2 ball of radius 1/ ?. But, as our experiments show, performing an exact line search in the dual leads to a faster decrease in the value of primal objective. Note that Pegasos also can be used in an online setting. This, however, only applies whenever the empirical risk decomposes into individual loss terms (e.g. it is not applicable to multivariate performance scores). The third related strand of research considers gradient descent in the primal with a line search to choose the optimal step size, see e.g. [2, Section 9.3.1]. Under assumptions of smoothness and strong convexity ? that is, the objective function can be upper and lower bounded by quadratic functions ? it can be shown that gradient descent with line search will converge to an accuracy of  in O(log(1/)) steps. The problem here is the line search in the primal, since evaluating the regularized risk functional might be as expensive as computing its gradient, thus rendering a line search in the primal unattractive. On the other hand, the dual objective is relatively simple to evaluate, thus making the line search in the dual, as performed by our algorithm, computationally feasible. Finally, we would like to point out connections to subgradient methods [7]. These algorithms are designed for nonsmooth functions, and essentially choose an arbitrary element of the subgradient set to perform a gradient descent like update. Let kJw (w)k ? G, and B(w? , r) denote a ball of radius r centered around the minimizer of J(w). By applying the analysis of Nedich and Bertsekas [7] to the regularized risk minimization problem with ?(w) := ?2 kwk2 , Ratliff et al. [9] showed that subgradient descent with a fixed, but sufficiently small, stepsize will converge linearly to B(w? , G/?). References [1] Y. Altun, A. J. Smola, and T. Hofmann. Exponential families for conditional random fields. In UAI, pages 2?9, 2004. [2] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [3] J. Hiriart-Urruty and C. Lemar?echal. Convex Analysis and Minimization Algorithms. 1993. [4] T. Joachims. A support vector method for multivariate performance measures. In ICML, pages 377?384, 2005. [5] T. Joachims. Training linear SVMs in linear time. In KDD, 2006. [6] S.-I. Lee, V. Ganapathi, and D. Koller. Efficient structure learning of Markov networks using L1regularization. In NIPS, pages 817?824, 2007. [7] A. Nedich and D. P. Bertsekas. Convergence rate of incremental subgradient algorithms. In Stochastic Optimization: Algorithms and Applications, pages 263?304. 2000. [8] J. Nocedal and S. J. Wright. Numerical Optimization. Springer, 1999. [9] N. Ratliff, J. Bagnell, and M. Zinkevich. (online) subgradient methods for structured prediction. In Proc. of AIStats, 2007. [10] R. T. Rockafellar. Convex Analysis. Princeton University Press, 1970. [11] S. Shalev-Shwartz and Y. Singer. Online learning meets optimization in the dual. In COLT, 2006. [12] S. Shalev-Shwartz, Y. Singer, and N. Srebro. Pegasos: Primal estimated sub-gradient solver for SVM. In ICML, 2007. [13] A. J. Smola, S. V. N. Vishwanathan, and Q. V. Le. Bundle methods for machine learning. JMLR, 2008. in preparation. [14] B. Taskar, C. Guestrin, and D. Koller. Max-margin Markov networks. In NIPS, pages 25?32, 2004. [15] C. H. Teo, Q. Le, A. Smola, and S. V. N. Vishwanathan. A scalable modular convex solver for regularized risk minimization. In KDD, 2007. [16] I. Tsochantaridis, T. Joachims, T. Hofmann, and Y. Altun. Large margin methods for structured and interdependent output variables. JMLR, 6:1453?1484, 2005. [17] V. Vapnik. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Springer, 1995. [18] T. Zhang. Sequential greedy approximation for certain convex optimization problems. IEEE Trans. Information Theory, 49(3):682?691, 2003. 8
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An Analysis of Inference with the Universum Fabian H. Sinz Max Planck Institute for biological Cybernetics Spemannstrasse 41, 72076, T?ubingen, Germany [email protected] Alekh Agarwal University of California Berkeley 387 Soda Hall Berkeley, CA 94720-1776 [email protected] Olivier Chapelle Yahoo! Research Santa Clara, California [email protected] Bernhard Sch?olkopf Max Planck Institute for biological Cybernetics Spemannstrasse 38, 72076, T?ubingen, Germany [email protected] Abstract We study a pattern classification algorithm which has recently been proposed by Vapnik and coworkers. It builds on a new inductive principle which assumes that in addition to positive and negative data, a third class of data is available, termed the Universum. We assay the behavior of the algorithm by establishing links with Fisher discriminant analysis and oriented PCA, as well as with an SVM in a projected subspace (or, equivalently, with a data-dependent reduced kernel). We also provide experimental results. 1 Introduction Learning algorithms need to make assumptions about the problem domain in order to generalise well. These assumptions are usually encoded in the regulariser or the prior. A generic learning algorithm usually makes rather weak assumptions about the regularities underlying the data. An example of this is smoothness. More elaborate prior knowledge, often needed for a good performance, can be hard to encode in a regulariser or a prior that is computationally efficient too. Interesting hybrids between both extremes are regularisers that depend on an additional set of data available to the learning algorithm. A prominent example of data-dependent regularisation is semisupervised learning [1], where an additional set of unlabelled data, assumed to follow the same distribution as the training inputs, is tied to the regulariser using the so-called cluster assumption. A novel form of data-dependent regularisation was recently proposed by [11]. The additional dataset for this approach is explicitly not from the same distribution as the labelled data, but represents a third ? neither ? class. This kind of dataset was first proposed by Vapnik [10] under the name Universum, owing its name to the intuition that the Universum captures a general backdrop against which a problem at hand is solved. According to Vapnik, a suitable set for this purpose can be thought of as a set of examples that belong to the same problem framework, but about which the resulting decision function should not make a strong statement. Although initially proposed for transductive inference, the authors of [11] proposed an inductive classifier where the decision surface is chosen such that the Universum examples are located close to it. Implementing this idea into an SVM, different choices of Universa proved to be helpful in various classification tasks. Although the authors showed that different choices of Universa and loss functions lead to certain known regularisers as special cases of their implementation, there are still a few unanswered questions. On the one hand it is not clear whether the good performance of their algorithm is due to the underlying original idea, or just a consequence of the employed algorithmic 1 relaxation. On the other hand, except in special cases, the influence of the Universum data on the resulting decision hyperplane and therefore criteria for a good choice of a Universum is not known. In the present paper we would like to address the second question by analysing the influence of the Universum data on the resulting function in the implementation of [11] as well as in a least squares version of it which we derive in section 2. Clarifying the regularising influence of the Universum on the solution of the SVM can give valuable insight into which set of data points might be a helpful Universum and how to obtain it. The paper is structured as follows. After briefly deriving the algorithms in section 2 we show in section 3 that the algorithm of [11] pushes the normal of the hyperplane into the orthogonal complement of the subspace spanned by the principal directions of the Universum set. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the least squares version of the Universum algorithm is equivalent to a hybrid between kernel Fisher Discriminant Analysis and kernel Oriented Principal Component Analysis. In section 4, we validate our analysis on toy experiments and give an example how to use the geometric and algorithmic intuition gained from the analysis to construct a Universum set for a real world problem. 2 2.1 The Universum Algorithms The Hinge Loss U-SVM We start with a brief review of the implementation proposed in [11]. Let L = {(x1 , y1 ), ..., (xm , ym )} be the set of labelled examples and let U = {z1 , ..., zq } denote the set of Universum examples. Using the hinge loss Ha [t] = max{0, a ? t} and fw,b (x) = hw, xi + b, a standard SVM can compactly be formulated as min w,b m X 1 ||w||2 + CL H1 [yi fw,b (xi )]. 2 i=1 In the implementation of [11] the goal of bringing the Universum examples close to the separating hyperplane is realised by also minimising the cumulative ?-insensitive loss I? [t] = max{0, |t| ? ?} on the Universum points min w,b q m X X 1 ||w||2 + CL H1 [yi fw,b (x)] + CU I? [ |fw,b (zj )| ]. 2 i=1 j=1 (1) Noting that I? [t] = H?? [t] + H?? [?t], one can use the simple trick of adding the Universum examples twice with opposite labels and obtain an SVM like formulation which can be solved with a standard SVM optimiser. 2.2 The Least Squares U-SVM The derivation of the least squares U-SVM starts with the same general regularised error minimisation problem q m 1 CL X CU X 2 min ||w|| + Qy [fw,b (x)] + Q0 [fw,b (zj )]. w,b 2 2 i=1 i 2 j=1 (2) Instead of using the hinge loss, we employ the quadratic loss Qa [t] = ||t ? a||22 which is used in the least squares versions of SVMs [9]. Expanding (2) in terms of slack variables ? and ? yields min w,b s.t. q m 1 CL X 2 CU X 2 ||w||2 + ?i + ? 2 2 i=1 2 j=1 j (3) hw, xi i + b = yi ? ?i for i = 1, ..., m hw, zj i + b = 0 ? ?j for j = 1, ..., q. Minimising the Lagrangian of (3) with respect to the primal variables w, b, ? and ?, and substituting their optimal values back into (3) yields a dual maximisation problem in terms of the Lagrange 2 multipliers ?. Since this dual problem is still convex, we can set its derivative to zero and thereby obtain the following linear system      0 b 0 1> y = , ? 1 K+C 0 Here, K =  U, and C = KL,L K> L,U  1 CL I 0 KL,U KU,U  denotes the kernel matrix between the input points in the sets L and 0  an identity matrix of appropriate size scaled with 1 CU I associated with labelled examples and 1 CU 1 CL in dimensions for dimensions corresponding to Universum examples. The solution (?, b) can then be obtained by a simple matrix inversion. In the remaining part of this paper we denote the least squares SVM by Uls -SVM. 2.3 Related Ideas Although [11] proposed the first algorithm that explicitly refers to Vapnik?s Universum idea, there exist related approaches that we shall mention briefly. The authors of [12] describe an algorithm for the one-vs-one strategy in multiclass learning that additionally minimises the distance of the separating hyperplane to the examples that are in neither of the classes. Although this is algorithmically equivalent to the U-SVM formulation above, their motivation is merely to sharpen the contrast between the different binary classifiers. In particular, they do not consider using a Universum for binary classification problems. There are also two Bayesian algorithms that refer to non-examples or neither class in the binary classification setting. [8] gives a probabilistic interpretation for a standard hinge loss SVM by establishing the connection between the MAP estimate of a Gaussian process with a Gaussian prior using a covariance function k and a hinge loss based noise model. In order to deal with the problem that the proposed likelihood does not integrate to one the author introduces a third ? the neither? class, A similar idea is used by [4], introducing a third class to tackle the problem that unlabelled examples used in semi-supervised learning do not contribute to discriminative models PY|X (yi |xi ) since the parameters of the label distribution are independent of input points with unknown, i.e., marginalised value of the label. To circumvent this problem, the authors of [4] introduce an additional ? neither ? class to introduce a stochastic dependence between the parameter and the unobserved label in the discriminative model. However, neither of the Bayesian approaches actually assigns an observed example to the introduced third class. 3 Analysis of the Algorithm The following two sections analyse the geometrical relation of the decision hyperplane learnt with one of the Universum SVMs to the Universum set. It will turn out that in both cases the optimal solutions tend to make the normal vector orthogonal to the principal directions of the Universum. The extreme case where w is completely orthogonal to U, makes the decision function defined by w invariant to transformations that act on the subspace spanned by the elements of U. Therefore, the Universum should contain directions the resulting function should be invariant against. In order to increase the readability we state all results for the linear case. However, our results generalise to the case where the xi and zj live in an RKHS spanned by some kernel. 3.1 U-SVM and Projection Kernel For this section we start by considering a U-SVM with hard margin on the elements of U. Furthermore, we use ? = 0 for the ?-insensitive loss. After showing the equivalence to using a standard SVM trained on the orthogonal complement of the subspace spanned by the zj , we extend the result to the cases with soft margin on U. Lemma A U-SVM with CU = ?, ? = 0 is equivalent to training a standard SVM with the training points projected onto the orthogonal complement of span{zj ?z0 , zj ? U}, where z0 is an arbitrary element of U. 3 Proof: Since CU = ? and ? = 0, any w yielding a finite value of (1) must fulfil hw, zj i + b = 0 for all j = 1, ..., q. So hw, zj ? z0 i = 0 and w is orthogonal to span{zj ? z0 , zj ? U}. Let PU? denote the projection operator onto the orthogonal complement of that set. From the previous argument, we can replace hw, xi i by hPU? w, xi i in the solution of (1) without changing it. Indeed, the optimal w in (1) will satisfy w = PU? w. Since PU? is an orthogonal projection we have that PU? = PU>? and hence hPU? w, xi i = hw, PU>? xi i = hw, PU? xi i. Therefore, the optimisation problem in (1) is  the same as a standard SVM where the xi have been replaced by PU? xi . The special case the lemma refers to, clarifies the role of the Universum in the U-SVM. Since the resulting w is orthogonal to an affine space spanned by the Universum points, it is invariant against features implicitly specified by directions of large variance in that affine space. Picturing the h?, zj i as filters that extract certain features from given labelled or test examples x, using the Universum algorithms means suppressing the features specified by the zj . Finally, we generalise the result of the lemma by dropping the hard constraint assumption on the Universum examples, i.e. we consider the case CU < ?. Let w? and b? the optimal solution of (1). We have that q q X X |hw? , zj i + b|. CU |hw? , zj i + b? | ? CU min b j=1 j=1 The right hand side can be interpreted as an ?L1 variance?. So the algorithm tries to find a direction w? such that the variance of the projection of the Universum points on that direction is small. As CU approaches infinity this variance approaches 0 and we recover the result of the above lemma. 3.2 Uls -SVM, Fisher Discriminant Analysis and Principal Component Analysis In this section we present the relation of the Uls -SVM to two classic learning algorithms: (kernel) oriented Principal Component Analysis (koPCA) and (kernel) Fisher discriminant analysis (kFDA) [5]. As it will turn out, the Uls -SVM is equivalent to a hybrid between both up to a linear equality constraint. Since koPCA and kFDA can both be written as maximisation of a Rayleigh Quotient we start with the Rayleigh quotient of the hybrid from FDA w w> (CL X z + ? }| + (c ? c )(c . j=1 k=? i?I k | { ? > ?c ) w q X X k k > ?)(zj ? c ?)> )w (xi ? c )(xi ? c ) +CU (zj ? c w max > {z } | from FDA {z } from oPCA ? = 21 (c+ + c? ) is the point between Here, c? denote the class means of the labelled examples and c them. As indicated in the equation, the numerator is exactly the same as in kFDA, i.e. the interclass variance, while the denominator is a linear combination of the denominators from kFDA and koPCA, i.e. the inner class variances from kFDA and the noise variance from koPCA. As noted in [6] the numerator is just a rank one matrix. For optimising the quotient it can be fixed to an arbitrary value while the denominator is minimised. Since the denominator might not have full rank it needs to be regularised [6]. Choosing the regulariser to be ||w||2 , the problem can be rephrased as min ? ? P P P ?)(zj ? c ? )> w ||w||2 + w> CL k=? i?I k (xi ? ck )(xi ? ck )> + CU qj=1 (zj ? c s.t. w> (c+ ? c? ) = 2 w As we will see below this problem can further be transformed into a quadratic program min ||w||2 + CL ||?||2 + CU ||?||2 w,b s.t. (4) (5) hw, xi i + b = yi + ?i for all i = 1, ..., m hw, zj i + b = ?j for all j = 1, ..., q ? > 1k = 0 for k = ?. Ignoring the constraint ? 1 = 0, this program is equivalent to the quadratic program (3) of the Uls -SVM. The following lemma establishes the relation of the Uls -SVM to kFDA and koPCA. > k 4 Lemma For given CL and CU the optimisation problems (4) and (5) are equivalent. Proof: Let w, b, ? and ? the optimal solution of (5). Combining the first and last constraint, we get ?. Plugging ? and ? in (5) w> c? + b ? 1 = 0. This gives us w> (c+ ? c? ) = 2 as well as b = ?w> c and using this value of b, we obtain the objective function (4). So we have proved that the minimum value of (4) is not larger than the one of (5). ?, ?i = w>P Conversely, let w be the optimal solution of (4). Let us choose b = ?w> c xi + b ? yi and > ?j = w zj +b. Again both objective functions are equal. We just have to check that i: yi =?1 ?i = 0. But because w> (c+ ? c? ) = 2, we have 1 m? X ?i = w> c? + b ? 1 = w> c? ? i: yi =?1 w> (c+ + c? ) w> (c? ? c? ) ?1= ? 1 = 0. 2 2 The above lemma establishes a relation of the Uls -SVM to two classic learning algorithms. This further clarifies the role of the Universum set in the algorithmic implementation of Vapnik?s idea as proposed by [11]. Since the noise covariance matrix of koPCA is given by the covariance of the Universum points centered on the average of the labelled class means, the role of the Universum as a data-dependent specification of principal directions of invariance is affirmed. The koPCA term also shows that both Pq the position and covariance P structure are crucial>to a good ?)(zj ? c ?)> as qj=1 (zj ? z ?)(zj ? z ?) + q(? Universum. To see this, we rewrite j=1 (zj ? c z? Pq 1 > ?)(? ?) , where z ? = q j=1 zj is the Universum mean. The additive relationship between c z?c covariance of Universum about its mean, and the distance between Universum and training sample means projected onto w shows that either quantity can dominate depending on the data at hand. In the next section, we demonstrate the theoretical results of this section on toy problems and give an example how to use the insight gained from this section to construct an appropriate Universum. 4 4.1 Experiments Toy Experiments The theoretical results of section 3 show that the covariance structure of the Universum as well as its absolute position influence the result of the learning process. To validate this insight on toy data, we sample ten labelled sets of size 20, 50, 100 and 500 from two fifty-dimensional Gaussians. Both Gaussians have a diagonal covariance that has low standard deviation (?1,2 = 0.08) in the first two dimensions and high standard deviation (?3,...,50 = 10) in the remaining 48. The two Gaussians are displaced such that the mean of ?? i = ?0.3 exceeds the standard deviation by a factor of 3.75 in the first two dimensions but was 125 times smaller in the remaining ones. The values are chosen such that the Bayes risk is approx. 5%. Note, that by construction the first two dimensions are most discriminative. We construct two kinds of Universa for this toy problem. For the first kind we use a mean zero Gaussian with the same covariance structure as the Gaussians for the labelled data (?3,...,50 = 10), but with varied degree of anisotropy in the first two dimensions (?1,2 = 0.1, 1.0, 10). According to the results of section 3 the Universa should be more helpful for larger anisotropy. For the second kind of Universa we use the same covariance as the labelled classes but shifted them along the line between the means of the labelled Gaussians. This kind of Universa should have a positive effect on the accuracy for small displacements but that effect should vanish with increasing amount of translation. Figure 1 shows the performance of a linear U-SVMs for different amounts of training and Universum data. In the top row, the degree of isotropy increases from left to right, whereas ? = 10 refers to the complete isotropic case. In the bottom row, the amount of translation increases from left to right. As expected, performance converges to the performance of an SVM for high isotropy ? and large translations t. Note, that large translations do not affect the accuracy as much as a high isotropy. However, this might be due to the fact the variance along the principal components of the Universum is much larger in magnitude than the applied shift. We obtained similar results for the Uls -SVM. Also, the effect remains when employing an RBF kernel. 5 ? = 0.1 ? = 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 500 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 100 200 300 400 0 0 500 100 t = 0.1 200 300 0 0 500 0.2 0.1 200 0.4 400 0.2 500 400 500 t = 0.9 0.3 0 0 300 0.5 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 1000 0.1 300 100 m mean error 0.3 200 0.2 t = 0.5 mean error mean error 400 0.5 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 1000 100 0.3 m 0.5 0.4 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 500 0.4 0.1 m 0 0 mean error 0.4 0 0 ? = 10.0 0.5 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 500 mean error mean error 0.5 SVM (q=0) q = 100 q = 1000 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 100 200 300 m 400 500 0 0 100 200 m 300 400 500 m Figure 1: Learning curves of linear U-SVMs for different degrees of isotropy ? and different amounts of translation z 7? z + 2t ? (c+ ? c? ). With increasing isotropy and translation the performance of the U-SVMs converges to the performance of a normal SVM. Universum Test error Mean output Angle 0 1.234 0.406 81.99 1 1.313 -0.708 85.57 2 1.399 -0.539 79.49 3 1.051 -0.031 69.74 4 1.246 -0.256 79.75 6 1.111 0.063 81.02 7 1.338 -0.165 82.72 9 1.226 -0.360 77.98 Table 1: See text for details. Without Universum, test error is 1.419%. The correlation between the test error and the absolute value of the mean output (resp. angle) is 0.71 (resp 0.64); the p-value (i.e the probability of observing such a correlation by chance) is 3% (resp 5.5%). Note that for instance that digits 3 and 6 are the best Universum and they are also the closest to the decision boundary. 4.2 Results on MNIST Following the experimental work from [11], we took up the task of distinguishing between the digits 5 and 8 on MNIST data. Training sets of size 1000 were used, and other digits served as Universum data. Using different digits as universa, we recorded the test error (in percentage) of U-SVM. We also computed the mean output (i.e. hw, xi + b) of a normal SVM trained for binary classification between the digits 5 and 8, measured on the points from the Universum class. Another quantity of interest measured was the angle between covariance matrices of training and Universum data in the feature space. Note that for two covariance matrices CX and CY corresponding to matrices p X and Y (centered about their means), the cosine of the angle is defined as trace(CX CY )/ ptrace(C2X )trace(C2Y ). This quantity can be computed in feature space as 2 2 trace(KXY K> XY )/ trace(KXX )trace(KY Y ), with KXY the kernel matrix between the sets X and Y . These quantities have been documented in Table 1. All the results reported are averaged over 10-folds of cross-validation, with C = CU = 100, and ? = 0.01. 4.3 Classification of Imagined Movements in Brain Computer Interfaces Brain computer interfaces (BCI) are devices that allow a user to control a computer by merely using his brain activity [3]. The user indicates different states to a computer system by deliberately changing his state of mind according to different experimental paradigms. These states are to be detected by a classifier. In our experiments, we used data from electroencephalographic recordings (EEG) with a imagined-movement paradigm. In this paradigm the patient imagines the movement of his left or right hand for indicating the respective state. In order to reverse the spatial blurring of the brain activity by the intermediate tissue of the skull, the signals from all sensors are demixed via 6 Algorithm SVM U-SVM LS-SVM Uls -SVM SVM U-SVM LS-SVM Uls -SVM U ? UC3 Unm ? UC3 Unm FS 40.00 ? 7.70 41.33 ? 7.06 (0.63) 39.67 ? 8.23 (1.00) 41.00 ? 7.04 40.67 ? 7.04 (1.00) 40.67 ? 6.81 (1.00) ? UC3 Unm ? UC3 Unm S1 12.35 ? 6.82 13.53 ? 6.83 (0.63) 12.35 ? 7.04 (1.00) 13.53 ? 8.34 12.94 ? 6.68 (1.00) 16.47 ? 7.74 (0.50) DATA I JH 40.00 ? 11.32 34.58 ? 9.22 (0.07) 37.08 ? 11.69 (0.73) 40.42 ? 11.96 37.08 ? 7.20 (0.18) 37.92 ? 12.65 (1.00) DATA II S2 35.29 ? 13.30 32.94 ? 11.83 (0.63) 27.65 ? 14.15 (0.13) 33.53 ? 13.60 32.35 ? 10.83 (0.38) 31.18 ? 13.02 (0.69) JL 30.00 ? 15.54 30.56 ? 17.22 (1.00) 30.00 ? 16.40 (1.00) 30.56 ? 15.77 31.11 ? 17.01 (1.00) 30.00 ? 15.54 (1.00) S3 35.26 ? 14.05 35.26 ? 14.05 (1.00) 36.84 ? 13.81 (1.00) 34.21 ? 12.47 35.79 ? 15.25 (1.00) 35.79 ? 15.25 (1.00) Table 2: Mean zero-one test error scores for the BCI experiments. The mean was taken over ten single error scores. The p-value for a two-sided sign test against the SVM error scores are given in brackets. an independent component analysis (ICA) applied to the concatenated lowpass filtered time series of all recording channels [2]. In the experiments below we used two BCI datasets. For the first set (DATA I) we recorded the EEG activity from three healthy subjects for an imagined movement paradigm as described by [3]. The second set (DATA II) contains EEG signals from a similar paradigm [7]. We constructed two kind of Universa. The first Universum, UC3 consists of recordings from a third condition in the experiments that is not related to imagined movements. Since variations in signals from this condition should not carry any useful information about imagined movement task, the classifier should be invariant against them. The second Universum Unm is physiologically motivated. In the case of the imagined-movement paradigm the relevant signal is known to be in the so called ?-band from approximately 10 ? 12Hz and spatially located over the motor cortices. Unfortunately, signals in the ?-band are also related to visual activity and independent components can be found that have a strong influence from sensors over the visual cortex. However, since ICA is unsupervised, those independent components could still contain discriminative information. In order to make the learning algorithm prefer the signals from the motor cortex, we construct a Universum Unm by projecting the labelled data onto the independent components that have a strong influence from the visual cortex. The machine learning experiments were carried out in two nested cross validation loops, where the inner loop was used for model selection and the outer for testing. We exclusively used a linear kernel. Table 2 shows the mean zero-one loss for DATA I and DATA II and the constructed Universa. On the DATA I dataset, there is no improvement in the error rates for the subjects FS and JL compared to an SVM without Universum. Therefore, we must assume that the employed Universa did not provide helpful information in those cases. For subject JH, UC3 and Unm yield an improvement for both Universum algorithms. However, the differences to the SVM error scores are not significantly better according to a two-sided sign test. The Uls -SVM performs worse than the U-SVM in almost all cases. On the DATA II dataset, there was an improvement only for subject S2 using the U-SVM with the Unm and UC3 Universum (8% and 3% improvement respectively). However, also those differences are not significant. As already observed for the DATA I dataset, the Uls -SVM performs constantly worse than its hinge loss counterpart. The better performance of the Unm Universum on the subjects JH and S2 indicates that additional information about the usefulness of features might in fact help to increase the accuracy of the classifier. The regularisation constant CU for the Universum points was chosen C = CU = 0.1 in both cases. This means that the non-orthogonality of w on the Universum points was only weakly 7 penalised, but had equal priority to classifying the labelled examples correctly. This could indicate that the spatial filtering by the ICA is not perfect and discriminative information might be spread over several independent components, even over those that are mainly non-discriminative. Using the Unm Universum and therefore gently penalising the use of these non-discriminative features can help to improve the classification accuracy, although the factual usefulness seems to vary with the subject. 5 Conclusion In this paper we analysed two algorithms for inference with a Universum as proposed by Vapnik [10]. We demonstrated that the U-SVM as implemented in [11] is equivalent to searching for a hyperplane which has its normal lying in the orthogonal complement of the space spanned by Universum examples. We also showed that the corresponding least squares Uls -SVM can be seen as a hybrid between the two well known learning algorithms kFDA and koPCA where the Universum points, centered between the means of the labelled classes, play the role of the noise covariance in koPCA. Ideally the covariance matrix of the Universum should thus contain some important invariant directions for the problem at hand. The position of the Universum set plays also an important role and both our theoretical and experimental analysis show that the behaviour of the algorithm depends on the difference between the means of the labelled set and of the Universum set. The question of whether the main influence of the Universum comes from the position or the covariance does not have a clear answer and is probably problem dependent. From a practical point, the main contribution of this paper is to suggest how to select a good Universum set: it should be such that it contains invariant directions and is positioned ?in between? the two classes. Therefore, as can be partly seen from the BCI experiments, a good Universum dataset needs to be carefully chosen and cannot be an arbitrary backdrop as the name might suggest. References [1] O. Chapelle, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Zien, editors. Semi-Supervised Learning. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [2] N. J. Hill, T. N. Lal, M. Schr?oder, T. Hinterberger, B. Wilhelm, F. Nijboer, U. Mochty, G. Widman, C. E. Elger, B. Sch?olkopf, A. K?ubler, and N. Birbaumer. Classifying EEG and ECoG signals without subject training for fast bci implementation: Comparison of non-paralysed and completely paralysed subjects. IEEE Transactions on Neural Systems and Rehabilitation Engineering, 14(2):183?186, 06 2006. [3] T. N. Lal. Machine Learning Methods for Brain-Computer Interdaces. PhD thesis, University Darmstadt, 09 2005. Logos Verlag Berlin MPI Series in Biological Cybernetics, Bd. 12 ISBN 3-8325-1048-6. [4] Neil D. Lawrence and Michael I. Jordan. Gaussian processes and the null-category noise model. In A. Zien O. Chapelle, Bernhard Sch?olkopf, editor, Semi-Supervised Learning, chapter 8, pages 137?150. MIT University Press, 2006. [5] S. Mika, G. R?atsch, J. Weston, B. Sch?olkopf, A. Smola, and K. M?uller. Invariant feature extraction and classification in kernel spaces. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 526?532, 2000. [6] Sebastian Mika, Gunnar R?atsch, and Klaus-Robert M?uller. A mathematical programming approach to the kernel fisher algorithm. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, NIPS, 2000. [7] J. del R. Mill?an. On the need for on-line learning in brain-computer interfaces. IDIAP-RR 30, IDIAP, Martigny, Switzerland, 2003. Published in ?Proc. of the Int. Joint Conf. on Neural Networks?, 2004. [8] P. Sollich. Probabilistic methods for support vector machines. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 1999. [9] J. A. K. Suykens and J. Vandewalle. Least squares support vector machine classifiers. Neural Processing Letters, 9(3):293?300, 1999. [10] V. Vapnik. Transductive Inference and Semi-Supervised Learning. In O. Chapelle, B. Sch?olkopf, and A. Zien, editors, Semi-Supervised Learning, chapter 24, pages 454?472. MIT press, 2006. [11] J. Weston, R. Collobert, F. Sinz, L. Bottou, and V. Vapnik. Inference with the universum. In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Machine Learning, page 127, 06/25/ 2006. [12] P. Zhong and M. Fukushima. A new support vector algorithm. Optimization Methods and Software, 21:359?372, 2006. 8
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Retrieved context and the discovery of semantic structure Vinayak A. Rao, Marc W. Howard? Syracuse University Department of Psychology 430 Huntington Hall Syracuse, NY 13244 [email protected], [email protected] Abstract Semantic memory refers to our knowledge of facts and relationships between concepts. A successful semantic memory depends on inferring relationships between items that are not explicitly taught. Recent mathematical modeling of episodic memory argues that episodic recall relies on retrieval of a gradually-changing representation of temporal context. We show that retrieved context enables the development of a global memory space that reflects relationships between all items that have been previously learned. When newly-learned information is integrated into this structure, it is placed in some relationship to all other items, even if that relationship has not been explicitly learned. We demonstrate this effect for global semantic structures shaped topologically as a ring, and as a two-dimensional sheet. We also examined the utility of this learning algorithm for learning a more realistic semantic space by training it on a large pool of synonym pairs. Retrieved context enabled the model to ?infer? relationships between synonym pairs that had not yet been presented. 1 Introduction Semantic memory refers to our ability to learn and retrieve facts and relationships about concepts without reference to a specific learning episode. For example, when answering a question such as ?what is the capital of France?? it is not necessary to remember details about the event when this fact was first learned in order to correctly retrieve this information. An appropriate semantic memory for a set of stimuli as complex as, say, words in the English language, requires learning the relationships between tens of thousands of stimuli. Moreover, the relationships between these items may describe a network of non-trivial topology [16]. Given that we can only simultaneously perceive a very small number of these stimuli, in order to be able to place all stimuli in the proper relation to each other the combinatorics of the problem require us to be able to generalize beyond explicit instruction. Put another way, semantic memory needs to not only be able to retrieve information in the absence of a memory for the details of the learning event, but also retrieve information for which there is no learning event at all. Computational models for automatic extraction of semantic content from naturally-occurring text, such as latent semantic analysis [12], and probabilistic topic models [1, 7], exploit the temporal co-occurrence structure of naturally-occurring text to estimate a semantic representation of words. Their success relies to some degree on their ability to not only learn relationships between words that occur in the same context, but also to infer relationships between words that occur in similar ? Vinayak Rao is now at the Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London. http://memory.syr.edu. 1 contexts. However, these models operate on an entire corpus of text, such that they do not describe the process of learning per se. Here we show that the temporal context model (TCM), developed as a quantitative model of human performance in episodic memory tasks, can provide an on-line learning algorithm that learns appropriate semantic relationships from incomplete information. The capacity for this model of episodic memory to also construct semantic knowledge spaces of multiple distinct topologies, suggests a relatively subtle relationship between episodic and semantic memory. 2 The temporal context model Episodic memory is defined as the vivid conscious recollection of information from a specific instance from one?s life [18]. Many authors describe episodic memory as the result of the recovery of some type of a contextual representation that is distinct from the items themselves. If a cue item can recover this ?pointer? to an episode, this enables recovery of other items that were bound to the contextual representation without committing to lasting interitem connections between items whose occurrence may not be reliably correlated [17]. Laboratory episodic memory tasks can provide an important clue to the nature of the contextual representation that could underlie episodic memory. For instance, in the free recall task, subjects are presented with a series of words to be remembered and then instructed to recall all the words they can remember in any order they come to mind. If episodic recall of an item is a consequence of recovering a state of context, then the transitions between recalls may tell us something about the ability of a particular state of context to cue recall of other items. Episodic memory tasks show a contiguity effect?a tendency to make transitions to items presented close together in time, but not simultaneously, with the just-recalled word. The contiguity effect shows an apparently universal form across multiple episodic recall tasks, with a characteristic asymmetry favoring forward recall transitions [11] (see Figure 1a). The temporal contiguity effect observed in episodic recall can be simply reconciled with the hypothesis that episodic recall is the result of recovery of a contextual representation if one assumes that the contextual representation changes gradually over time. The temporal context model (TCM) describes a set of rules for a gradually-changing representation of temporal context and how items can be bound to and recover states of temporal context. TCM has been applied to a number of problems in episodic recall [9]. Here we describe the model, incorporating several changes that enable TCM to describe the learning of stable semantic relationships (detailed in Section 3).1 TCM builds on distributed memory models which have been developed to provide detailed descriptions of performance in human memory tasks [14]. In TCM, a gradually-changing state of temporal context mediates associations between items and is responsible for recency effects and contiguity effects. The state of the temporal context vector at time step i is denoted as ti and changes from moment-to-moment according to ti = ?i ti?1 + ?tIN (1) i , IN where ? is a free parameter, ti is the input caused by the item presented at time step i, assumed to be of unit length, and ?i is chosen to ensure that ti is of unit length. Items, represented as unchanging orthonormal vectors f , are encoded in their study contexts by means of a simple outer-product matrix connecting the t layer to the f layer, MT F , which is updated according to: ?MTi F = fi t0i?1 , (2) where the prime denotes the transpose and the subscripts here reflect time steps. Items are probed for recall by multiplying MT F from the right with the current state of t as a cue. This means that when tj is presented as a cue, each item is activated to the extent that the probe context overlaps with its encoding contexts. The space over which t evolves is obviously determined by the tIN s. We will decompose tIN into cIN , a component that does not change over the course of study of this paper, and hIN , a component 1 Previous published treatments of TCM have focused on episodic tasks in which items were presented only once. Although the model described here differs from previously published versions in notation and its behavior over multiple item repetitions, it is identical to previously-published results described for single presentations of items. 2 a b c 1 f Hippocampal Cortical hi t Cue strength 0.8 ci 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 h -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Lag 2 3 4 5 Figure 1: Temporal recovery in episodic memory. a. Temporal contiguity effect in episodic recall. Given that an item from a series has just been recalled, the y-axis gives the probability that the next item recalled came from each serial position relative the just-recalled item. This figure is averaged across a dozen separate studies [11]. b. Visualization of the model. Temporal context vectors ti are hypothesized to reside in extra-hippocampal MTL regions. When an item fi is presented, it evokes two inputs to t?a slowly-changing direct cortical input cIN and a more rapidly varying i hippocampal input hIN i . When an item is repeated, the hippocampal component retrieves the context in which the item was presented. c. While the cortical component serves as a temporally-asymmetric cue when an item is repeated, the hippocampal component provides a symmetric cue. Combining these in the right proportion enables TCM to describe temporal contiguity effects. that changes rapidly to retrieve the contexts in which an item was presented. Denoting the time steps at which a particular item A was presented as Ai , we have ? IN + (1 ? ?) cIN . tIN ? ? h (3) Ai+1 Ai+1 A IN where the proportionality reflects the fact that t is always normalized before being used to update ti as in Eq. 1 and the hat on the hIN term refers to the normalization of hIN . We assume that the cIN s corresponding to the items presented in any particular experiment start and remain orthonormal to each other. In contrast, hIN starts as zero for each item and then changes according to: IN hIN Ai+1 = hAi + tAi ?1 . (4) It has been hypothesized that ti reflects the pattern of activity at extra-hippocampal medial temporal lobe (MTL) regions, in particular the entorhinal cortex [8]. The notation cIN and hIN reflects the hypothesis that the consistent and rapidly-changing parts of tIN reflect inputs to the entorhinal cortex from cortical and hippocampal sources, respectively (Figure 1b). According to TCM, associations between items are not formed directly, but rather are mediated by the effect that items have on the state of context which is then used to probe for recall of other items. When an item is repeated as a probe, this induces a correlation between the tIN of the probe context and the study context of items that were neighbors of the probe item when it was initially presented. The consistent part of tIN is an effective cue for items that followed the initial presentation of the probe item (open symbols, Figure 1c). In contrast, recovery of the state of context that was present before the probe item was initially presented is a symmetric cue (filled symbols, Figure 1). Combining these two components in the proper proportions provides an excellent description of contiguity effects in episodic memory [8]. 3 Constructing global semantic information from local events In each of the following simulations, we specify a to-be-learned semantic structure by imagining items as the nodes of a graph with some topology. We generated training sequences by randomly sampling edges from the graph.2 Each edge only contains a limited amount of information about 2 The pairs are chosen randomly, so that any across-pair learning would be uninformative with respect to the overall structure of the graph. To further ensure that learning across pairs from simple contiguity could not contribute to our results, we set ? in Eq. 1 to one when the first member of each pair was presented. This means that the temporal context when the second item is presented is effectively isolated from the previous pair. 3 b G I D B C E d J I I H H G G F H J A c J F 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Dimension 2 a F E E D D C C B B A A A B C D E F G H I J 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1 -1.2 -1.4 A B C D E F G H I J -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 Dimension 1 1 1.5 2 Figure 2: Learning of a one-dimensional structure using contextual retrieval. a. The graph used to generate the training pairs. b-c. Associative strength between items after training (higher strength corresponds to darker cells). b. The model without contextual retrieval (? = 0). c. The model with contextual retrieval (? > 0). d. Two dimensional MDS solution for the log of the data in c. Lines connect points corresponding to nodes connected by an edge. the global structure. For the model is to learn the global structure of the graph, it must somehow integrate the learning events into a coherent whole. After training we evaluated the ability of the model to capture the topology of the graph by examining the cue strength between each item. The cue strength from item A to B is defined as IN and hIN components of A and the contexts fB0 MT F tIN A . This reflects the overlap between the c 3 in which B was presented. Because tIN is caused by presentation of item i, we can think of the tIN s as a representation of the i set of items. Learning can be thought of as a mixing of the tIN s according to the temporal structure of experience. Because the cIN s are fixed, changes in the representation are solely due to changes in the hIN s. Suppose that two items, A and B are presented in sequence. If context is retrieved, IN then after presentation of the pair A-B hIN B includes the tA that obtained when A was presented. IN This includes the current state of hA as well as the fixed state cIN A . If at some later time B is now is similar to tIN presented as part of the sequence B-C , then because tIN A , item C is learned in a B IN context that resembles tA , despite the fact that A and C were not actually presented close together IN in time. After learning A-B and B-C , tIN A and tC will resemble each other. This ability to rate as similar items that were not presented together in the same context, but that were presented in similar contexts, is a key property of latent models of semantic learning [12]. To isolate the importance of retrieved context for the ability to extract global structure, we will compare a version of the model with ? = 0 to one with ? > 0.4 With ? = 0, the model functions as a simple co-occurrence detector in that the cue strength between A and B is non-zero only if cIN A was part of the study contexts of B. In the absence of contextual retrieval, this requires that B was preceded by A during study. IN Ultimately, the ti s and hIN vectors. We therefore i s can be expressed as a combination of the c treated these as orthonormal basis vectors in the simulations that follow. MT F and the hIN s were initialized as a matrix and vectors of zeros, respectively. The parameter ? for the second member of a pair was fixed at 0.6. 3.1 1-D: Rings For this simulation we sampled edges chosen from a ring of ten items (Fig. 2a). We treated the ring as an undirected graph, in that we sampled an edge A-B equally often as B-A . We presented the model with 300 pairs chosen randomly from the ring. For example, the training pairs might include the sub-sequence C-D , A-B , F-E , B-C . 3 0 TF In this implementation of TCM, hIN . This need not be the case in general, as one A is identical to fA M could alter the learning rate, or even the structure of Eqs. 2 and/or 4 without changing the basic idea of the model. 4 In the simulations reported below, this value is set to 0.6. The precise value does not affect the qualitative results we report as long as it is not too close to one. 4 a b c Y X 6 5 5 4 4 W T V S Dimension 2 O Q N P M J L H E G D F 1 0 -1 -2 I K 2 2 R Dimension 2 U 3 3 C B A 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Dimension 1 2 3 4 5 6 -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Dimension 1 2 3 4 5 Figure 3: Reconstruction of a 2-dimensional spatial representation. a. The graph used to construct sequences. b. 2-dimensional MDS solution constructed from the temporal co-occurrence version of TCM ? = 0 using the log of the associative strength as the metric. Lines connect stimuli from adjacent edges. c. Same as b, but for TCM with retrieved context. The model accurately places the items in the correct topology. Figure 2b shows the cue strength between each pair of items as a grey-scale image after training the model without contextual retrieval (? = 0). The diagonal is shaded reflecting the fact that an item?s cue strength to itself is high. In addition, one row on either side of the diagonal is shaded. This reflects the non-zero cue strength between items that were presented as part of the same training pair. That is, the model without contextual retrieval has correctly learned the relationships described by the edges of the graph. However, without contextual retrieval the model has learned nothing about the relationships between the items that were not presented as part of the same pair (e.g. the cue strength between A and C is zero). Figure 2c shows the cue strength between each pair of items for the model with contextual retrieval ? > 0. The effect of contextual retrieval is that pairs that were not presented together have non-zero cue strength and this cue strength falls off with the number of edges separating the items in the graph. This happens because contextual retrieval enables similarity to ?spread? across the edges of the graph, reaching an equilibrium that reflects the global structure. Figure 2d shows a two-dimensional MDS (multi-dimensional scaling) solution conducted on the log of the cue strengths of the model with contextual retrieval. The model appears to have successfully captured the topology of the graph that generated the pairs. More precisely, with contextual retrieval, TCM can place the items in a space that captures the topology of the graph used to generate the training pairs. On the one hand, the relationships that result from contextual retrieval in this simulation seem intuitive and satisfying. Viewed from another perspective, however, this could be seen as undesirable behavior. Suppose that the training pairs accurately sample the entire set of relationships that are actually relevant. Moreover, suppose that one?s task were simply to remember the pairs, or alternatively, to predict the next item that would be presented after presenting the first member of a pair. Under these circumstances, the co-occurrence model performs better than the model equipped with contextual retrieval. It should be noted that people form associations across pairs (e.g. A-C ) after learning lists of paired associates with a linked temporal structure like the rings shown in Figure 2a [15]. In addition, rats can also generalize across pairs, but this ability depends on an intact hippocampus [2]. These finding suggest that the mechanism of contextual retrieval capture an important property of how we learn in similar circumstance. 3.2 2-D: Spatial navigation The ring illustrated in Figure 2 demonstrates the basic idea behind contextual retrieval?s ability to extract semantic spaces, but it is hard to imagine an application where such a simple space would need to be extracted. In this simulation will illustrate the ability of retrieved context to discover relationships between stimuli arranged in a two-dimensional sheet. The use of a two-dimensional sheet has an analog in spatial navigation. It has long been argued that the medial temporal lobe has a special role in our ability to store and retrieve information from a spatial map. Eichenbaum [5] has argued that the MTL?s role in spatial 5 navigation is merely a special case of more general role in organizing disjointed experiences into integrated representations. The present model can be seen as a computational mechanism that could implement this idea. In our typical experience, spatial information is highly correlated with temporal information. Because of our tendency to move in continuous paths through our environment, locations that are close together in space also tend to be experienced close together in time. However, insofar as we travel in more-or-less straight paths, the combinatorics of the problem place a premium on the ability to integrate landmarks experienced on different paths into a coherent whole. At the outset we should emphasize that our extremely simple simulation here does not capture many of the aspects of actual spatial navigation?the model is not provided with metric spatial information, nor gradually changing item inputs, nor do we discuss how the model could select an appropriate trajectory to reach a goal [3]. We constructed a graph arranged as a 5?5 grid with horizontal and vertical edges (Figure 3a). We presented the model with 600 edges from the graph in a randomly-selected order. One may think of the items as landmarks in a city with a rectangular street plan. The ?traveler? takes trips of one block at a time (perhaps teleporting out of the city between journeys).5 The problem here is not only to integrate pairs into rows and columns as in the 1-dimensional case, but to place the rows and columns into the correct relationship to each other. Figure 3b shows the two-dimensional MDS solution calculated on the log of the cue strengths for the co-occurrence model. Without contextual retrieval the model places the items in a high-dimensional structure that reflects their co-occurrence. Figure 3c shows the same calculation for TCM with contextual retrieval. Contextual retrieval enables the model to place the items on a two-dimensional sheet that preserves the topology of the graph used to generate the pairs. It is not a map?there is no sense of North nor an accurate metric between the points?but it is a semantic representation that captures something intuitive about the organization that generated the pairs. This illustrates the ability of contextual retrieval to organize isolated experiences, or episodes, into a coherent whole based on the temporal structure of experience. 3.3 More realistic example: Synonyms The preceding simulations showed that retrieved context enables learning of simple topologies with a few items. It is possible that the utility of the model in discovering semantic relationships is limited to these toy examples. Perhaps it does not scale up well to spaces with large numbers of stimuli, or perhaps it will be fooled by more realistic and complex topologies. In this subsection we demonstrate that retrieved context can provide benefits in learning relationships among a large number of items with a more realistic semantic structure. We assembled a large list of English words (all unique strings in the TASA corpus) and used these as probes to generate a list of nearly 114,000 synonym pairs using WordNet. We selected 200 of these synonym pairs at random as a test list. The word pairs organize into a large number of connected graphs of varying sizes. The largest of these contained slightly more than 26,000 words; there were approximately 3,500 clusters with only two words. About 2/3 of the pairs reflect edges within the five largest clusters of words. We tested performance by comparing the cue strength of the cue word with its synonym to the associative strength to three lures that were synonyms of other cue words?if the correct answer had the highest cue strength, it was counted as correct.6 We averaged performance over ten shuffles of the training pairs. We preserved the order of the synonym pairs, so that this, unlike the previous two simulations, described a directed graph. Figure 4a shows performance on the training list as a function of learning. The lower curve shows ?co-occurrence? TCM without contextual retrieval, ? = 0. The upper curve shows TCM with contextual retrieval, ? > 0. In the absence of contextual retrieval, the model learns linearly, performing perfectly on pairs that have been explicitly presented. However, contextual retrieval enables faster learning of the pairs, presumably due to the fact that it can ?infer? relationships between words 5 We also observed the same results when we presented the model with complete rows and columns of the sheet as a training set rather than simply pairs. 6 In instances where the cue strength was zero for all the choices, as at the beginning of training, this was counted as 1/4 of a correct answer. 6 b 1 1 0.8 0.8 P(correct) P(correct) a 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.4 0.2 TCM Co-occurrence 0 0.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 Number of pairs presented (1k) TCM Co-occurrence 0 20 40 60 80 100 Number of pairs presented (1k) Figure 4: Retrieved context aids in learning synonyms that have not been presented. a. Performance on the synonym test. The curve labeled ?TCM? denotes the performance of TCM with contextual retrieval. The curve labeled ?Co-occurrence? is the performance of TCM without contextual retrieval. b. Same as a, except that the training pairs were shuffled to omit any of the test pairs from the middle region of the training sequence. that were never presented together. To confirm that this property holds, we constructed shuffles of the training pairs such that the test synonyms were not presented for an extended period (see Figure 4b). During this period, the model without contextual retrieval does not improve its performance on the test pairs because they are not presented. In contrast, TCM with contextual retrieval shows considerable improvement during that interval.7 4 Discussion We showed that retrieval of temporal context, an on-line learning method developed for quantitatively describing episodic recall data, can also integrate distinct learning events into a coherent and intuitive semantic representation. It would be incorrect to describe this representation as a semantic space?the cue strength between items is in general asymmetric (Figure 1c). The model thus has the potential to capture some effects of word order and asymmetry. However, one can also think of the set of tIN s corresponding to the items as a semantic representation that is also a proper space. Existing models of semantic memory, such as LSA and LDA, differ from TCM in that they are offline learning algorithms. More specifically, these algorithms form semantic associations between words by batch-processing large collections of natural text (e.g., the TASA corpus). While it would be interesting to compare results generated by running TCM on such a corpus with these models, constraints of syntax and style complicate this task. Unlike the simple examples employed here, temporal proximity is not a perfect indicator of local similarity in real world text. The BEAGLE model [10] describes the semantic representation of a word as a superposition of the words that occurred with it in the same sentence. This enables BEAGLE to describe semantic relations beyond simple cooccurrence, but precludes the development of a representation that captures continuously-varying representations (e.g., Fig. 3). It may be possible to overcome this limitation of a straightforward application of TCM to naturally-occurring text by generating a predictive representation, as in the syntagmatic-paradigmatic model [4]. The present results suggest that retrieved temporal context?previously hypothesized to be essential for episodic memory?could also be important in developing coherent semantic representations. This could reflect similar computational mechanisms contribute to separate systems, or it could indicate a deep connection between episodic and semantic memory. A key finding is that adult-onset amnesics with impaired episodic memory retain the ability to express previously-learned semantic knowledge but are impaired at learning new semantic knowledge [19]. Previous connectionist models have argued that the hippocampus contributes to classical conditioning by learning compressed representations of stimuli, and that these representations are eventually transferred to entorhinal cor7 To ensure that this property wasn?t simply a consequence of backward associations for the model with retrieved context, we re-ran the simulations presenting the pairs simultaneously rather than in sequence (so that the co-occurrence model would also learn backward associations) and obtained the same results. 7 tex [6]. This could be implemented in the context of the current model by allowing slow plasticity to change the cIN s over long time scales [13]. Acknowledgments Supported by NIH award MH069938-01. Thanks to Mark Steyvers, Tom Landauer, Simon Dennis, and Shimon Edelman for constructive criticism of the ideas described here at various stages of development. 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Fitted Q-iteration in continuous action-space MDPs Andr?as Antos Computer and Automation Research Inst. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Kende u. 13-17, Budapest 1111, Hungary [email protected] R?emi Munos SequeL project-team, INRIA Lille 59650 Villeneuve d?Ascq, France [email protected] Csaba Szepesv?ari? Department of Computing Science University of Alberta Edmonton T6G 2E8, Canada [email protected] Abstract We consider continuous state, continuous action batch reinforcement learning where the goal is to learn a good policy from a sufficiently rich trajectory generated by some policy. We study a variant of fitted Q-iteration, where the greedy action selection is replaced by searching for a policy in a restricted set of candidate policies by maximizing the average action values. We provide a rigorous analysis of this algorithm, proving what we believe is the first finite-time bound for value-function based algorithms for continuous state and action problems. 1 Preliminaries We will build on the results from [1, 2, 3] and for this reason we use the same notation as these papers. The unattributed results cited in this section can be found in the book [4]. A discounted MDP is defined by a quintuple (X , A, P, S, ?), where X is the (possible infinite) state space, A is the set of actions, P : X ? A ? M (X ) is the transition probability kernel with P (?|x, a) defining the next-state distribution upon taking action a from state x, S(?|x, a) gives the corresponding distribution of immediate rewards, and ? ? (0, 1) is the discount factor. Here X is a measurable space and M (X ) denotes the set of all probability measures over X . The Lebesguemeasure shall be denoted by ?. We start with the following mild assumption on the MDP: Assumption A1 (MDP Regularity) X is a compact subset of the dX -dimensional Euclidean space, ? max A is a compact subset of [?A? , A? ]dA . The random immediate rewards are bounded by R R and that the expected immediate reward function, r(x, a) = rS(dr|x, a), is uniformly bounded by Rmax : krk? ? Rmax . A policy determines the next action given the past observations. Here we shall deal with stationary (Markovian) policies which choose an action in a stochastic way based on the last observation only. The value of a policy ? when it is started from a state x is defined as the expected discounted Ptotal ? reward that is encountered while the policy is executed: V ? (x) = E? [ t=0 ? t Rt |X0 = x]. Here Rt ? S(?|Xt , At ) is the reward received at time step t, the state, Xt , evolves according to Xt+1 ? ? Also with: Computer and Automation Research Inst. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Kende u. 13-17, Budapest 1111, Hungary. 1 P (?|Xt , At ), where At is sampled from the distribution determined by ?. We use Q? : X ? A ? R P? to denote the action-value function of policy ?: Q? (x, a) = E? [ t=0 ? t Rt |X0 = x, A0 = a]. The goal is to find a policy that attains the best possible values, V ? (x) = sup? V ? (x), at all states ? x ? X . Here V ? is called the optimal value function and a policy ? ? that satisfies V ? (x) = ? ? ? V (x) for all x ? X is called optimal. The optimal action-value function Q (x, a) is Q (x, a) = sup? Q? (x, a). We say that a (deterministic stationary) policy ? is greedy w.r.t. an action-value function Q ? B(X ? A), and we write ? = ? ? (?; Q), if, for all x ? X , ?(x) ? argmaxa?A Q(x, a). Under mild technical assumptions, such a greedy policy always exists. Any greedy policy w.r.t. Q? ? is optimal. For ? : X ? A we ? A), by R define its evaluation operator, T : B(X ?? A) ?? B(X ? (T Q)(x, a) = r(x, a) + ? X Q(y, ?(y)) P (dy|x, a). It is known that Q = T Q? . Further, if weR let the Bellman operator, T : B(X ? A) ? B(X ? A), defined by (T Q)(x, a) = r(x, a) + ? X supb?A Q(y, b) P (dy|x, a) then Q? = T Q? . It is known that V ? and Q? are bounded by Rmax /(1 ? ?), just like Q? and V ? . For ? : X ? A, the operator E ? : B(X ? A) ? B(X ) is defined by (E ? Q)(x) = Q(x, ?(x)), while E : B(X ? A) ? B(X ) is defined by (EQ)(x) = supa?A Q(x, a). Throughout the paper F ? {f : X ? A ? R} will denote a subset of real-valued functions over the state-action space X ? A and ? ? AX will R be a set of policies. For ? ? M (X ) and f : X ? R p measurable, we let (for p ? 1) kf kp,? = X |f (x)|p ?(dx). We simply write kf k? for kf k2,? . R R 2 Further, we extend k?k? to F by kf k? = A X |f |2 (x, a) d?(x) d?A (a), where ?RA is the uniform distribution over A. We shall use the shorthand notation ?f to denote the integral f (x)?(dx). We denote the space of bounded measurable functions with domain X by B(X ). Further, the space of measurable functions bounded by 0 < K < ? shall be denoted by B(X ; K). We let k?k? denote the supremum norm. 2 Fitted Q-iteration with approximate policy maximization We assume that we are given a finite trajectory, {(Xt , At , Rt )}1?t?N , generated by some stochastic stationary policy ?b , called the behavior policy: At ? ?b (?|Xt ), Xt+1 ? P (?|Xt , At ), Rt ? def S(?|Xt , At ), where ?b (?|x) is a density with ?0 = inf (x,a)?X ?A ?b (a|x) > 0. The generic recipe for fitted Q-iteration (FQI) [5] is Qk+1 = Regress(Dk (Qk )), (1) where Regress is an appropriate regression procedure and Dk (Qk ) is a dataset defining a regression problem in the form of a list of data-point pairs: ?h ? i Dk (Qk ) = (Xt , At ), Rt + ? max Qk (Xt+1 , b) .1 b?A 1?t?N Fitted Q-iteration can be viewed as approximate value iteration applied to action-value functions. To see this note that value iteration would assign the value (T Qk )(x, a) = r(x, a) + R ? maxb?A Qk (y, b) P (dy|x, a) to Qk+1 (x, a) [6]. Now, remember that the regression function for the jointly distributed random variables (Z, Y ) is defined by the conditional expectation of Y given Z: m(Z) = E [Y |Z]. Since for any fixed function Q, E [Rt + ? maxb?A Q(Xt+1 , b)|Xt , At ] = (T Q)(Xt , At ), the regression function corresponding to the data Dk (Q) is indeed T Q and hence if FQI solved the regression problem defined by Qk exactly, it would simulate value iteration exactly. However, this argument itself does not directly lead to a rigorous analysis of FQI: Since Qk is obtained based on the data, it is itself a random function. Hence, after the first iteration, the ?target? function in FQI becomes random. Furthermore, this function depends on the same data that is used to define the regression problem. Will FQI still work despite these issues? To illustrate the potential difficulties consider a dataset where X1 , . . . , XN is a sequence of independent random variables, which are all distributed uniformly at random in [0, 1]. Further, let M be a random integer greater than N which is independent of the dataset (Xt )N t=1 . Let U be another random variable, uniformly distributed in [0, 1]. Now define the regression problem by Yt = fM,U (Xt ), where fM,U (x) = sgn(sin(2M 2?(x + U ))). Then it is not hard to see that no matter how big N is, no procedure can 1 Since the designer controls Qk , we may assume that it is continuous, hence the maximum exists. 2 estimate the regression function fM,U with a small error (in expectation, or with high probability), even if the procedure could exploit the knowledge of the specific form of fM,U . On the other hand, if we restricted M to a finite range then the estimation problem could be solved successfully. The example shows that if the complexity of the random functions defining the regression problem is uncontrolled then successful estimation might be impossible. Amongst the many regression methods in this paper we have chosen to work with least-squares methods. In this case Equation (1) takes the form ? ? ??2 N X 1 Q(Xt , At ) ? Rt + ? max Qk (Xt+1 , b) Qk+1 = argmin . (2) b?A Q?F t=1 ?b (At |Xt ) We call this method the least-squares fitted Q-iteration (LSFQI) method. Here we introduced the weighting 1/?b (At |Xt ) since we do not want to give more weight to those actions that are preferred by the behavior policy. Besides this weighting, the only parameter of the method is the function set F. This function set should be chosen carefully, to keep a balance between the representation power and the number of samples. As a specific example for F consider neural networks with some fixed architecture. In this case the function set is generated by assigning weights in all possible ways to the neural net. Then the above minimization becomes the problem of tuning the weights. Another example is to use linearly parameterized function approximation methods with appropriately selected basis functions. In this case the weight tuning problem would be less demanding. Yet another possibility is to let F be an appropriate restriction of a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (e.g., in a ball). In this case the training procedure becomes similar to LS-SVM training [7]. As indicated above, the analysis of this algorithm is complicated by the fact that the new dataset is defined in terms of the previous iterate, which is already a function of the dataset. Another complication is that the samples in a trajectory are in general correlated and that the bias introduced by the imperfections of the approximation architecture may yield to an explosion of the error of the procedure, as documented in a number of cases in, e.g., [8]. Nevertheless, at least for finite action sets, the tools developed in [1, 3, 2] look suitable to show that under appropriate conditions these problems can be overcome if the function set is chosen in a judicious way. However, the results of these works would become essentially useless in the case of an infinite number of actions since these previous bounds grow to infinity with the number of actions. Actually, we believe that this is not an artifact of the proof techniques of these works, as suggested by the counterexample that involved random targets. The following result elaborates this point further: Proposition 2.1. Let F ? B(X ? A). Then even if the pseudo-dimension of F is finite, the fatshattering function of ? ? ? Fmax = VQ : VQ (?) = max Q(?, a), Q ? F a?A 2 can be infinite over (0, 1/2). Without going into further details, let us just note that the finiteness of the fat-shattering function is a sufficient and necessary condition for learnability and the finiteness of the fat-shattering function is implied by the finiteness of the pseudo-dimension [9].The above proposition thus shows that without imposing further special conditions on F, the learning problem may become infeasible. One possibility is of course to discretize the action space, e.g., by using a uniform grid. However, if the action space has a really high dimensionality, this approach becomes unfeasible (even enumerating 2dA points could be impossible when dA is large). Therefore we prefer alternate solutions. Another possibility is to make the functions in F, e.g., uniformly Lipschitz in their state coordinates. ? Then the same property will hold for functions in Fmax and hence by a classical result we can bound the capacity of this set (cf. pp. 353?357 of [10]). One potential problem with this approach is that this way it might be difficult to get a fine control of the capacity of the resulting set. 2 The proof of this and the other results are given in the appendix, available in the extended version of this paper, downloadable from http://hal.inria.fr/inria-00185311/en/. 3 In the approach explored here we modify the fitted Q-iteration algorithm by introducing a policy set ? and a search over this set for an approximately greedy policy in a sense that will be made precise in a minute. Our algorithm thus has four parameters: F, ?, K, Q0 . Here F is as before, ? is a user-chosen set of policies (mappings from X to A), K is the number of iterations and Q0 is an initial value function (a typical choice is Q0 ? 0). The algorithm computes a sequence of iterates (Qk , ? ?k ), k = 0, . . . , K, defined by the following equations: ? ?0 Qk+1 ? ?k+1 = argmax ??? = argmin N X argmax ??? Q0 (Xt , ?(Xt )), t=1 Q?F = N X t=1 N X ? ? ??2 1 Q(Xt , At ) ? Rt + ?Qk (Xt+1 , ? ?k (Xt+1 )) , ?b (At |Xt ) (3) Qk+1 (Xt , ?(Xt )). (4) t=1 Thus, (3) is similar to (2), while (4) defines the policy search problem. The policy search will generally be solved by a gradient procedure or some other appropriate method. The cost of this step will be primarily determined by how well-behaving the iterates Qk+1 are in their action arguments. For example, if they were quadratic and if ? was linear then the problem would be a quadratic optimization problem. However, except for special cases3 the action value functions will be more complicated, in which case this step can be expensive. Still, this cost could be similar to that of searching for the maximizing actions for each t = 1, . . . , N if the approximately maximizing actions are similar across similar states. This algorithm, which we could also call a fitted actor-critic algorithm, will be shown to overcome the above mentioned complexity control problem provided that the complexity of ? is controlled appropriately. Indeed, in this case the set of possible regression problems is determined by the set F?? = { V : V (?) = Q(?, ?(?)), Q ? F, ? ? ? } , and the proof will rely on controlling the complexity of F?? by selecting F and ? appropriately. 3 3.1 The main theoretical result Outline of the analysis In order to gain some insight into the behavior of the algorithm, we provide a brief summary of its error analysis. The main result will be presented subsequently. For f ,Q ? F and a policy ?, we define the tth TD-error as follows: dt (f ; Q, ?) = Rt + ?Q(Xt+1 , ?(Xt+1 )) ? f (Xt , At ). Further, we define the empirical loss function by N X d2t (f ; Q, ?) ? N (f ; Q, ?) = 1 , L N t=1 ?(A)?b (At |Xt ) where the normalization with ?(A) is introduced for mathematical convenience. Then (3) can be ? N (f ; Qk , ? written compactly as Qk+1 = argminf ?F L ?k ). ? N (f ; Q, ?) is an The algorithm can then be motivated by the observation that for any f ,Q, and ?, L unbiased estimate of def 2 L(f ; Q, ?) = kf ? T ? Qk? + L? (Q, ?), (5) where the first term is the error we are interested in and the second term captures the variance of the random samples: Z L? (Q, ?) = E [Var [R1 + ?Q(X2 , ?(X2 ))|X1 , A1 = a]] d?A (a). A 3 Linear quadratic regulation is such a nice case. It is interesting to note that in this special case the obvious choices for F and ? yield zero error in the limit, as can be proven based on the main result of this paper. 4 h i ? N (f ; Q, ?) = L(f ; Q, ?). This result is stated formally by E L Since the variance term in (5) is independent of f , argminf ?F L(f ; Q, ?) = 2 ? argminf ?F kf ? T Qk? . Thus, if ? ?k were greedy w.r.t. Qk then argminf ?F L(f ; Qk , ? ?k ) = 2 argminf ?F kf ? T Qk k? . Hence we can still think of the procedure as approximate value iteration over the space of action-value functions, projecting T Qk using empirical risk minimization on the space F w.r.t. k?k? distances in an approximate manner. Since ? ?k is only approximately greedy, we will have to deal with both the error coming from the approximate projection and the error coming from the choice of ? ?k . To make this clear, we write the iteration in the form Qk+1 = T ??k Qk + ?0k = T Qk + ?0k + (T ??k Qk ? T Qk ) = T Qk + ?k , def where ?0k is the error committed while computing T ??k Qk , ?00k = T ??k Qk ? T Qk is the error committed because the greedy policy is computed approximately and ?k = ?0k + ?00k is the total error of step k. Hence, in order to show that the procedure is well behaved, one needs to show that both errors are controlled and that when the errors are propagated through these equations, the resulting error stays controlled, too. Since we are ultimately interested in the performance of the policy obtained, we will also need to show that small action-value approximation errors yield small performance losses. For these we need a number of assumptions that concern either the training data, the MDP, or the function sets used for learning. 3.2 Assumptions 3.2.1 Assumptions on the training data We shall assume that the data is rich, is in a steady state, and is fast-mixing, where, informally, mixing means that future depends weakly on the past. Assumption A2 (Sample Path Properties) Assume that {(Xt , At , Rt )}t=1,...,N is the sample path of ?b , a stochastic stationary policy. Further, assume that {Xt } is strictly stationary (Xt ? ? ? M (X )) and exponentially ?-mixing with the actual rate given by the parameters (?, b, ?).4 We further assume that the sampling policy ?b satisfies ?0 = inf (x,a)?X ?A ?b (a|x) > 0. The ?-mixing property will be used to establish tail inequalities for certain empirical processes.5 Note that the mixing coefficients do not need to be known. In the case when no mixing condition is satisfied, learning might be impossible. To see this just consider the case when X1 = X2 = . . . = XN . Thus, in this case the learner has many copies of the same random variable and successful generalization is thus impossible. We believe that the assumption that the process is in a steady state is not essential for our result, as when the process reaches its steady state quickly then (at the price of a more involved proof) the result would still hold. 3.2.2 Assumptions on the MDP In order to prevent the uncontrolled growth of the errors as they are propagated through the updates, we shall need some assumptions on the MDP. A convenient assumption is the following one [11]: Assumption A3 (Uniformly stochastic transitions) For all x ? X and a ? A, assume that P (?|x, a) is absolutely continuous w.r.t. ? and the derivative of P w.r.t. ? is bounded ? ? Radon-Nikodym def ? dP (?|x,a) ? uniformly with bound C? : C? = supx?X ,a?A ? d? ? < +?. ? Note that by the definition of measure differentiation, Assumption A3 means that P (?|x, a) ? C? ?(?). This assumption essentially requires the transitions to be noisy. We will also prove (weaker) results under the following, weaker assumption: 4 For the definition of ?-mixing, see e.g. [2]. We say ?empirical process? and ?empirical measure?, but note that in this work these are based on dependent (mixing) samples. 5 5 Assumption A4 (Discounted-average concentrability of future-state distributions) Given ?, ?, m ? 1 and an arbitrary sequence of stationary policies {?m }m?1 , assume that the futuredef state distribution ?P ?1 P ?2 . . .?P ?m is absolutely continuous w.r.t. ?. Assume that c(m) = ? ?1 ?2 ?m ? P def ? sup?1 ,...,?m ? d(?P Pd? ...P ) ? satisfies m?1 m? m?1 c(m) < +?. We shall call C?,? = ? ? ? P P max (1 ? ?)2 m?1 m? m?1 c(m), (1 ? ?) m?1 ? m c(m) the discounted-average concentrability coefficient of the future-state distributions. The number c(m) measures how much ? can get amplified in m steps as compared to the reference distribution ?. Hence, in general we expect c(m) to grow with m. In fact, the condition that C?,? is finite is a growth rate condition on c(m). Thanks to discounting, C?,? is finite for a reasonably large class of systems (see the discussion in [11]). A related assumption is needed in the error analysis of the approximate greedy step of the algorithm: Assumption A5 (The random policy ?makes no peak-states?) Consider the distribution ? = (? ? ?A )P which is the distribution of a state that results from sampling an initial state according to ? and then executing an action which is selected uniformly at random.6 Then ?? = kd?/d?k? < +?. Note that under Assumption A3 we have ?? ? C? . This (very mild) assumption means that after one step, starting from ? and executing this random policy, the probability of the next state being in a set is upper bounded by ?? -times the probability of the starting state being in the same set. def Besides, we assume that A has the following regularity property: Let Py(a, h, ?) = ? ? (a0 , v) ? RdA +1 : ka ? a0 k1 ? ?, 0 ? v/h ? 1 ? ka ? a0 k1 /? denote the pyramid with hight ? def ? h and base given by the `1 -ball B(a, ?) = a0 ? RdA : ka ? a0 k1 ? ? centered at a. Assumption A6 (Regularity of the action space) We assume that there exists ? > 0, such that for all a ? A, for all ? > 0, ? ? ?(Py(a, 1, ?) ? (A ? R)) ?(A) ? min ?, . ?(Py(a, 1, ?)) ?(B(a, ?)) For example, if A is an `1 -ball itself, then this assumption will be satisfied with ? = 2?dA . Without assuming any smoothness of the MDP, learning in infinite MDPs looks hard (see, e.g., [12, 13]). Here we employ the following extra condition: Assumption A7 (Lipschitzness of the MDP in the actions) Assume that the transition probabilities and rewards are Lipschitz w.r.t. their action variable, i.e., there exists LP , Lr > 0 such that for all (x, a, a0 ) ? X ? A ? A and measurable set B of X , |P (B|x, a) ? P (B|x, a0 )| ? LP ka ? a0 k1 , |r(x, a) ? r(x, a0 )| ? Lr ka ? a0 k1 . Note that previously Lipschitzness w.r.t. the state variables was used, e.g., in [11] to construct consistent planning algorithms. 3.2.3 Assumptions on the function sets used by the algorithm These assumptions are less demanding since they are under the control of the user of the algorithm. However, the choice of these function sets will greatly influence the performance of the algorithm, as we shall see it from the bounds. The first assumption concerns the class F: Assumption A8 (Lipschitzness of candidate action-value functions) Assume F ? B(X ? A) and that any elements of F is uniformly Lipschitz in its action-argument in the sense that |Q(x, a) ? Q(x, a0 )| ? LA ka ? a0 k1 holds for any x ? X , a,a0 ? A, and Q ? F . 6 Remember that ?A denotes the uniform distribution over the action set A. 6 We shall also need to control the capacity of our function sets. We assume that the reader is familiar with the concept of VC-dimension.7 Here we use the pseudo-dimension of function sets that builds upon the concept of VC-dimension: Definition 3.1 (Pseudo-dimension). The pseudo-dimension VF + of F is defined as the VCdimension of the subgraphs of functions in F (hence it is also called the VC-subgraph dimension of F). Since A is multidimensional, we define V?+ to be the sum of the pseudo-dimensions of the coordinate projection spaces, ?k of ?: V ?+ = dA X V? + , k=1 k ?k = { ?k : X ? R : ? = (?1 , . . . , ?k , . . . , ?dA ) ? ? } . Now we are ready to state our assumptions on our function sets: Assumption A9 (Capacity of the function and policy sets) Assume that F ? B(X ? A; Qmax ) for Qmax > 0 and VF + < +?. Also, A ? [?A? , A? ]dA and V?+ < +?. Besides their capacity, one shall also control the approximation power of the function sets involved. Let us first consider the policy set ?. Introduce e? (F, ?) = sup inf ?(EQ ? E ? Q). Q?F ??? Note that inf ??? ?(EQ ? E ? Q) measures the quality of approximating ?EQ by ?E ? Q. Hence, e? (F, ?) measures the worst-case approximation error of ?EQ as Q is changed within F. This can be made small by choosing ? large. Another related quantity is the one-step Bellman-error of F w.r.t. ?. This is defined as follows: For a fixed policy ?, the one-step Bellman-error of F w.r.t. T ? is defined as E1 (F; ?) = sup inf kQ0 ? T ? Qk? . 0 Q?F Q ?F Taking again a pessimistic approach, the one-step Bellman-error of F is defined as E1 (F, ?) = sup E1 (F; ?). ??? Typically by increasing F, E1 (F, ?) can be made smaller (this is discussed at some length in [3]). However, it also holds for both ? and F that making them bigger will increase their capacity (pseudo-dimensions) which leads to an increase of the estimation errors. Hence, F and ? must be selected to balance the approximation and estimation errors, just like in supervised learning. 3.3 The main result Theorem 3.2. Let ?K be a greedy policy w.r.t. QK , i.e. ?K (x) ? argmaxa?A QK (x, a). Then under Assumptions A1, A2, and A5?A9, for all ? > 0 we have with probability at least 1 ? ?: given Assumption A3 (respectively A4), kV ? ? V ?K k? (resp. kV ? ? V ?K k1,? ), is bounded by ? ?? ? d 1+1 ?+1 ? ? A ? ? 4? (log N + log(K/?)) K ? + ? , C ?E1 (F, ?) + e? (F, ?) + 1/4 ? ? N ? ? A where C depends on dA , VF + , (V?+ )dk=1 , ?, ?, b, ?, C? (resp. C?,? ), ?? , LA , LP ,Lr , ?, ?(A), ?0 , k ?+1 ? max , and A? . In particular, C scales with V 4?(dA +1) , where V = 2VF + + V?+ Qmax , Rmax , R plays the role of the ?combined effective? dimension of F and ?. 7 Readers not familiar with VC-dimension are suggested to consult a book, such as the one by Anthony and Bartlett [14]. 7 4 Discussion We have presented what we believe is the first finite-time bounds for continuous-state and actionspace RL that uses value functions. Further, this is the first analysis of fitted Q-iteration, an algorithm that has proved to be useful in a number of cases, even when used with non-averagers for which no previous theoretical analysis existed (e.g., [15, 16]). In fact, our main motivation was to show that there is a systematic way of making these algorithms work and to point at possible problem sources the same time. We discussed why it can be difficult to make these algorithms work in practice. We suggested that either the set of action-value candidates has to be carefully controlled (e.g., assuming uniform Lipschitzness w.r.t. the state variables), or a policy search step is needed, just like in actorcritic algorithms. The bound in this paper is similar in many respects to a previous bound of a Bellman-residual minimization algorithm [2]. It looks that the techniques developed here can be used to obtain results for that algorithm when it is applied to continuous action spaces. Finally, although we have not explored them here, consistency results for FQI can be obtained from our results using standard methods, like the methods of sieves. We believe that the methods developed here will eventually lead to algorithms where the function approximation methods are chosen based on the data (similar to adaptive regression methods) so as to optimize performance, which in our opinion is one of the biggest open questions in RL. Currently we are exploring this possibility. Acknowledgments Andr?as Antos would like to acknowledge support for this project from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Bolyai Fellowship). Csaba Szepesv?ari greatly acknowledges the support received from the Alberta Ingenuity Fund, NSERC, the Computer and Automation Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. References [1] A. Antos, Cs. Szepesv?ari, and R. Munos. Learning near-optimal policies with Bellman-residual minimization based fitted policy iteration and a single sample path. In COLT-19, pages 574?588, 2006. [2] A. Antos, Cs. Szepesv?ari, and R. Munos. Learning near-optimal policies with Bellman-residual minimization based fitted policy iteration and a single sample path. Machine Learning, 2007. (accepted). [3] A. Antos, Cs. Szepesv?ari, and R. Munos. Value-iteration based fitted policy iteration: learning with a single trajectory. In IEEE ADPRL, pages 330?337, 2007. [4] D. P. Bertsekas and S.E. Shreve. Stochastic Optimal Control (The Discrete Time Case). Academic Press, New York, 1978. [5] D. Ernst, P. Geurts, and L. Wehenkel. Tree-based batch mode reinforcement learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:503?556, 2005. [6] R.S. Sutton and A.G. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Bradford Book. MIT Press, 1998. [7] N. Cristianini and J. Shawe-Taylor. An introduction to support vector machines (and other kernel-based learning methods). Cambridge University Press, 2000. [8] J.A. Boyan and A.W. Moore. Generalization in reinforcement learning: Safely approximating the value function. In NIPS-7, pages 369?376, 1995. [9] P.L. Bartlett, P.M. Long, and R.C. Williamson. Fat-shattering and the learnability of real-valued functions. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 52:434?452, 1996. [10] A.N. Kolmogorov and V.M. Tihomirov. ?-entropy and ?-capacity of sets in functional space. American Mathematical Society Translations, 17(2):277?364, 1961. [11] R. Munos and Cs. Szepesv?ari. Finite time bounds for sampling based fitted value iteration. Technical report, Computer and Automation Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Kende u. 13-17, Budapest 1111, Hungary, 2006. [12] A.Y. Ng and M. Jordan. PEGASUS: A policy search method for large MDPs and POMDPs. In Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, pages 406?415, 2000. [13] P.L. Bartlett and A. Tewari. Sample complexity of policy search with known dynamics. In NIPS-19. MIT Press, 2007. [14] M. Anthony and P. L. Bartlett. Neural Network Learning: Theoretical Foundations. Cambridge University Press, 1999. [15] M. Riedmiller. Neural fitted Q iteration ? first experiences with a data efficient neural reinforcement learning method. In 16th European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 317?328, 2005. [16] S. Kalyanakrishnan and P. Stone. Batch reinforcement learning in a complex domain. In AAMAS-07, 2007. 8
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Topmoumoute online natural gradient algorithm Pierre-Antoine Manzagol University of Montreal [email protected] Nicolas Le Roux University of Montreal [email protected] Yoshua Bengio University of Montreal [email protected] Abstract Guided by the goal of obtaining an optimization algorithm that is both fast and yields good generalization, we study the descent direction maximizing the decrease in generalization error or the probability of not increasing generalization error. The surprising result is that from both the Bayesian and frequentist perspectives this can yield the natural gradient direction. Although that direction can be very expensive to compute we develop an efficient, general, online approximation to the natural gradient descent which is suited to large scale problems. We report experimental results showing much faster convergence in computation time and in number of iterations with TONGA (Topmoumoute Online natural Gradient Algorithm) than with stochastic gradient descent, even on very large datasets. Introduction An efficient optimization algorithm is one that quickly finds a good minimum for a given cost function. An efficient learning algorithm must do the same, with the additional constraint that the function is only known through a proxy. This work aims to improve the ability to generalize through more efficient learning algorithms. Consider the optimization of a cost on a training set with access to a validation set. As the end objective is a good solution with respect to generalization, one often uses early stopping: optimizing the training error while monitoring the validation error to fight overfitting. This approach makes the underlying assumption that overfitting happens at the later stages. A better perspective is that overfitting happens all through the learning, but starts being detrimental only at the point it overtakes the ?true? learning. In terms of gradients, the gradient of the cost on the training set is never collinear with the true gradient, and the dot product between the two actually eventually becomes negative. Early stopping is designed to determine when that happens. One can thus wonder: can one limit overfitting before that point? Would this actually postpone that point? From this standpoint, we discover new justifications behind the natural gradient [1]. Depending on certain assumptions, it corresponds either to the direction minimizing the probability of increasing generalization error, or to the direction in which the generalization error is expected to decrease the fastest. Unfortunately, natural gradient algorithms suffer from poor scaling properties, both with respect to computation time and memory, when the number of parameters becomes large. To address this issue, we propose a generally applicable online approximation of natural gradient that scales linearly with the number of parameters (and requires computation time comparable to stochastic gradient descent). Experiments show that it can bring significant faster convergence and improved generalization. 1 1 Natural gradient e = Let Le be a cost defined as L(?) Z L(x, ?)p(x)dx where L is a loss function over some parameters ? and over the random variable x with distribution p(x). The problem of minimizing Le over ? is often encountered and can be quite difficult. There exist various techniques to tackle it, their efficiency depending on L and p. In the case of non-convex optimization, gradient descent is a successful e technique. The approach consists in progressively updating ? using the gradient ge = dd?L . e (the covariance of the [1] showed that the parameter space is a Riemannian space of metric C gradients), and introduced the natural gradient as the direction of steepest descent in this space. e?1 ge. The Riemannian space is known to The natural gradient direction is therefore given by C correspond to the space of functions represented by the parameters (instead of the space of the parameters themselves). The natural gradient somewhat resembles the Newton method. [6] showed that, in the case of a mean squared cost function, the Hessian is equal to the sum of the covariance matrix of the gradients and of an additional term that vanishes to 0 as the training error goes down. Indeed, when the data are generated from the model, the Hessian and the covariance matrix are equal. There are two important e is positive-definite, which makes the technique more stable, differences: the covariance matrix C but contains no explicit second order information. The Hessian allows to account for variations in the parameters. The covariance matrix accounts for slight variations in the set of training samples. It also means that, if the gradients highly disagree in one direction, one should not go in that direction, even if the mean suggests otherwise. In that sense, it is a conservative gradient. 2 A new justification for natural gradient Until now, we supposed we had access to the true distribution p. However, this is usually not the case and, in general, the distribution p is only known through the samples of the training set. These samples define a cost L (resp. a gradient g) that, although close to the true cost (resp. gradient), is not equal to it. We shall refer to L as the training error and to Le as the generalization error. The danger is then to overfit the parameters ? to the training set, yielding parameters that are not optimal with respect to the generalization error. A simple way to fight overfitting consists in determining the point when the continuation of the e This can be done by setting aside some samples to optimization on L will be detrimental to L. e Once the error starts increasing form a validation set that will provide an independent estimate of L. on the validation set, the optimization should be stopped. We propose a different perspective on overfitting. Instead of only monitoring the validation error, we consider using as descent direction an estimate of the direction that maximizes the probability of reducing the generalization error. The goal is to limit overfitting at every stage, with the hope that the optimal point with respect to the validation should have lower generalization error. Consider a descent direction v. We know that if v T ge is negative then the generalization error drops (for a reasonably small step) when stepping in the direction of v. Likewise, if v T g is negative then the training error drops. Since the learning objective is to minimize generalization error, we would like v T ge as small as possible, or at least always negative. n 1X ?L(xi , ?) gi where gi = and n is the n i=1 ?? number of training samples. With a rough approximation, one can consider the g i s as draws from the true gradient distribution and assume all the gradients are independent and identically distributed. The central limit theorem then gives ! e C g ? N ge, (1) n By definition, the gradient on the training set is g = e is the true covariance matrix of where C ?L(x,?) ?? wrt p(x). 2 We will now show that, both in the Bayesian setting (with a Gaussian prior) and in the frequentist setting (with some restrictions over the type of gradient considered), the natural gradient is optimal in some sense. 2.1 Bayesian setting In the Bayesian setting, ge is a random variable. We would thus like to define a posterior over ge given the samples gi in order to have a posterior distribution over v T ge for any given direction v. The prior over ge will be a Gaussian centered in 0 of variance ? 2 I. Thus, using eq. 1, the posterior over ge given the gi s (assuming the only information over ge given by the gi s is through g and C) is ? ? !?1  ?1 e C I e?N? I+ e?1 ? ge|g, C (2) g, + nC n? 2 ?2 e? = I + Denoting C e C n? 2 , we therefore have e?N v ge|g, C T T e ?1 e e?1 g, v C? Cv v C ? n T ! (3) Using this result, one can choose between several strategies, among which two are of particular interest: ? choosing the direction v such that the expected value of v T ge is the lowest possible (to maximize the immediate gain). In this setting, the direction v to choose is e??1 g. v ? ?C (4) e? = I and this If ? < ?, this is the regularized natural gradient. In the case of ? = ?, C is the batch gradient descent. ? choosing the direction v to minimize the probability of v T ge to be positive. This is equivalent to finding e??1 g vT C argminv p e e??1 Cv vT C (we dropped n for the sake of clarity, since it does not change the result). If we square this e ?1 g(v T C e?1 g)(v T C e?1 Cv) e ? quantity and take the derivative with respect to v, we find 2C ? ? ? ?1 e T e ?1 2 ?1 e e 2C? Cv(v C? g) at the numerator. The first term is in the span of C? g and the second e Hence, for the derivative to be zero, we must have g ? Cv e e ?1 Cv. one is in the span of C ? e e (since C and C? are invertible), i.e. e ?1 g. v ? ?C (5) This direction is the natural gradient and does not depend on the value of ?. 2.2 Frequentist setting In the frequentist setting, ge is a fixed unknown quantity. For the sake of simplicity, we will only consider (as all second-order methods do) the directions v of the form v = M T g (i.e. we are only allowed to go in a direction which is a linear function of g).   e Since g ? N ge, C n , we have ! e ge geT M T CM T T T v ge = g M g ? N ge M ge, (6) n The matrix M ? which minimizes the probability of v T ge to be positive satisfies M ? = argminM 3 geT M ge geT M T CM ge (7) e gegeT ? 2CM e gegeT M gegeT . The first The numerator of the derivative of this quantity is gegeT M T CM e term is in the span of ge and the second one is in the span of CM ge. Thus, for this derivative to be e ?1 and we obtain the same result as in the Bayesian case: the 0 for all ge, one must have M ? C natural gradient represents the direction minimizing the probability of increasing the generalization error. 3 Online natural gradient The previous sections provided a number of justifications for using the natural gradient. However, the technique has a prohibitive computational cost, rendering it impractical for large scale problems. Indeed, considering p as the number of parameters and n as the number of examples, a direct batch implementation of the natural gradient is O(p2 ) in space and O(np2 + p3 ) in time, associated respectively with the gradients? covariance storage, computation and inversion. This section reviews existing low complexity implementations of the natural gradient, before proposing TONGA, a new low complexity, online and generally applicable implementation suited to large scale problems. In e to be known. In a practical algorithm the previous sections we assumed the true covariance matrix C we of course use an empirical estimate, and here this estimate is furthermore based on a low-rank approximation denoted C (actually a sequence of estimates Ct ). 3.1 Low complexity natural gradient implementations [9] proposes a method specific to the case of multilayer perceptrons. By operating on blocks of the covariance matrix, this approach attains a lower computational complexity 1. However, the technique is quite involved, specific to multilayer perceptrons and requires two assumptions: Gaussian distributed inputs and a number of hidden units much inferior to that of input units. [2] offers a more general approach based on the Sherman-Morrison formula used in Kalman filters: the technique maintains an empirical estimate of the inversed covariance matrix that can be updated in O(p 2 ). Yet the memory requirement remains O(p2 ). It is however not necessary to compute the inverse of the gradients? covariance, since one only needs its product with the gradient. [10] offers two approaches to exploit this. The first uses conjugate gradient descent to solve Cv = g. The second revisits [9] thereby achieving a lower complexity. [8] also proposes an iterative technique based on the minimization of a different cost. This technique is used in the minibatch setting, where Cv can be computed cheaply through two matrix vector products. However, estimating the gradient covariance only from a small number of examples in one minibatch yields unstable estimation. 3.2 TONGA Existing techniques fail to provide an implementation of the natural gradient adequate for the large scale setting. Their main failings are with respect to computational complexity or stability. TONGA was designed to address these issues, which it does this by maintaining a low rank approximation of the covariance and by casting both problems of finding the low rank approximation and of computing the natural gradient in a lower dimensional space, thereby attaining a much lower complexity. What we exploit here is that although a covariance matrix needs many gradients to be estimated, we can take advantage of an observed property that it generally varies smoothly as training proceeds and moves in parameter space. 3.2.1 Computing the natural gradient direction between two eigendecompositions Even though our motivation for the use of natural gradient implied the covariance matrix of the empirical gradients, we will use the second moment (i.e. the uncentered covariance matrix) throughout the paper (and so did Amari in his work). The main reason is numerical stability. Indeed, in the batch setting, we have (assuming C is the centered covariance matrix and g the mean) v = C ?1 g, thus Cv = g. But then, (C + gg T )v = g + gg T v = g(1 + g T v) and v (C + gg T )?1 g = = v? (8) 1 + gT v 1 Though the technique allows for a compact representation of the covariance matrix, the working memory requirement remains the same. 4 Even though the direction is the same, the scale changes and the norm of the direction is bounded 1 by kgk cos(g,v) . Since TONGA operates using a low rank estimate of the gradients? non-centered covariance, we must be able to update cheaply. When presented with a new gradient, we integrate its information using the following update formula2: Ct = ? C?t?1 + gt gtT (9) where C0 = 0 and C?t?1 is the low rank approximation at time step t ? 1. Ct is now likely of greater rank, and the problem resides in computing its low rank approximation C?t . Writing C?t?1 = T Xt?1 Xt?1 , ? Ct = Xt XtT with Xt = [ ?Xt?1 gt ] With such covariance matrices, computing the (regularized) natural direction v t is equal to vt = (Ct + ?I)?1 gt = (Xt XtT + ?I)?1 gt (10) vt = (Xt XtT + ?I)?1 Xt yt with yt = [0, . . . 0, 1]T . (11) Using the Woodbury identity with positive definite matrices [7], we have vt = Xt (XtT Xt + ?I)?1 yt (12) If Xt is of size p ? r (with r < p, thus yielding a covariance matrix of rank r), the cost of this computation is O(pr 2 + r3 ). However, since the Gram matrix Gt = XtT Xt can be rewritten as     ? T ? T T ?Xt?1 gt ?Gt?1 ?Xt?1 gt ?Xt?1 Xt?1 ? T ? T = , (13) Gt = ?gt Xt?1 gtT gt ?gt Xt?1 gtT gt the cost of computing Gt using Gt?1 reduces to O(pr + r 3 ). This stresses the need to keep r small. 3.2.2 Updating the low-rank estimate of Ct To keep a low-rank estimate of Ct = Xt XtT , we can compute its eigendecomposition and keep only the first k eigenvectors. This can be made at low cost using its relation to that of G t : Gt = V DV T Ct = (Xt V D? 2 )D(Xt V D? 2 )T (14) The cost of such an eigendecomposition is O(kr 2 + pkr) (for the computation of the eigendecomposition of the Gram matrix and the computation of the eigenvectors, respectively). Since the cost of computing the natural direction is O(pr + r 3 ), it is computationally more efficient to let the rank of Xt grow for several steps (using formula 12 in between) and then compute the eigendecomposition using i h t+b b?1 1 T Ct+b = Xt+b Xt+b with Xt+b = ?Ut , ? 2 gt+1 , . . . ? 2 gt+b?1 , ? 2 gt+b ] 1 1 with Ut the unnormalized eigenvectors computed during the previous eigendecomposition. 3.2.3 Computational complexity The computational complexity of TONGA depends on the complexity of updating the low rank approximation and on the complexity of computing the natural gradient. The cost of updating the approximation is in O(k(k + b)2 + p(k + b)k) (as above, using r = k + b). The cost of computing 3 the natural pgradient vt is in O(p(k + b) + (k + b) ) (again, as above, using r = k + b). Assuming k + b  (p) and k ? b, TONGA?s total computational cost per each natural gradient computation is then O(pb). Furthermore, by operating on minibatch gradients of size b0 , we end up with a cost per example of 0 O( bp b0 ). Choosing b = b , yields O(p) per example, the same as stochastic gradient descent. Empirical comparison of cpu time also shows comparable CPU time per example, but faster convergence. In our experiments, p was in the tens of thousands, k was less than 5 and b was less than 50. The result is an approximate natural gradient with low complexity, general applicability and flexibility over the tradoff between computations and the quality of the estimate. 2 The second term is not weighted by 1?? so that the influence of gt in Ct is the same for all t, even t = 0.To keep the magnitude of the matrix constant, one must use a normalization constant equal to 1 + ? + . . . + ? t . 5 4 Block-diagonal online natural gradient for neural networks One might wonder if there are better approximations of the covariance matrix C than computing its first k eigenvectors. One possibility is a block-diagonal approximation from which to retain only the first k eigenvectors of every block (the value of k can be different for each block). Indeed, [4] showed that the Hessian of a neural network with one hidden layer trained with the cross-entropy cost converges to a block diagonal matrix during optimization. These blocks are composed of the weights linking all the hidden units to one output unit and all the input units to one hidden unit. Given the close relationship between the Hessian and the covariance matrices, we can assume they have a similar shape during the optimization. Figure 1 shows the correlation between the standard stochastic gradients of the parameters of a 16 ? 50 ? 26 neural network. The first blocks represent the weights going from the input units to each hidden unit (thus 50 blocks of size 17, bias included) and the following represent the weights going from the hidden units to each output unit (26 blocks of size 51). One can see that the blockdiagonal approximation is reasonable. Thus, instead of selecting only k eigenvectors to represent the full covariance matrix, we can select k eigenvectors for every block, yielding the same total cost. However, the rank of the approximation goes from k to k ?number of blocks. In the matrices shown in figure 1, which are of size 2176, a value of k = 5 yields an approximation of rank 380. (a) Stochastic gradient (b) TONGA (c) TONGA - zoom Figure 1: Absolute correlation between the standard stochastic gradients after one epoch in a neural network with 16 input units, 50 hidden units and 26 output units when following stochastic gradient directions (left) and natural gradient directions (center and right). ? kC?Ck Figure 2 shows the ratio of Frobenius norms kCk2 F for different types of approximations C? (full F or block-diagonal). We can first notice that approximating only the blocks yields a ratio of .35 (in comparison, taking only the diagonal of C yields a ratio of .80), even though we considered only 82076 out of the 4734976 elements of the matrix (1.73% of the total). This ratio is almost obtained with k = 6. We can also notice that, for k < 30, the block-diagonal approximation is much better (in terms of the Frobenius norm) than the full approximation. The block diagonal approximation is therefore very cost effective. 2 1 0.8 Ratio of the squared Frobenius norms Ratio of the squared Frobenius norms 1 Full matrix approximation Block diagonal approximation 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Number k of eigenvectors kept 1800 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 2000 (a) Full view Full matrix approximation Block diagonal approximation 0.9 5 10 15 20 25 30 Number k of eigenvectors kept 35 40 (b) Zoom Figure 2: Quality of the approximation C? of the covariance C depending on the number of eigenvec? 2 kC?Ck tors kept (k), in terms of the ratio of Frobenius norms kCk2 F , for different types of approximation F C? (full matrix or block diagonal) 6 This shows the block diagonal approximation constitutes a powerful and cheap approximation of the covariance matrix in the case of neural networks. Yet this approximation also readily applies to any mixture algorithm where we can assume independence between the components. 5 Experiments We performed a small number of experiments with TONGA approximating the full covariance matrix, keeping the overhead of the natural gradient small (ie, limiting the rank of the approximation). Regrettably, TONGA performed only as well as stochastic gradient descent, while being rather sensitive to the hyperparameter values. The following experiments, on the other hand, use TONGA with the block diagonal approximation and yield impressive results. We believe this is a reflection of the phenomenon illustrated in figure 2: the block diagonal approximation makes for a very cost effective approximation of the covariance matrix. All the experiments have been made optimizing hyperparameters on a validation set (not shown here) and selecting the best set of hyperparameters for testing, trying to keep small the overhead due to natural gradient calculations. One could worry about the number of hyperparameters of TONGA. However, default values of k = 5, b = 50 and ? = .995 yielded good results in every experiment. When ? goes to infinity, TONGA becomes the standard stochastic gradient algorithm. Therefore, a simple heuristic for ? is to progressively tune it down. In our experiments, we only tried powers of ten. 5.1 MNIST dataset The MNIST digits dataset consists of 50000 training samples, 10000 validation samples and 10000 test samples, each one composed of 784 pixels. There are 10 different classes (one for every digit). 0.05 0.02 0.16 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 CPU time (in seconds) 3500 4000 4500 (a) Train class error 0.015 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.2 Block diagonal TONGA Stochastic batchsize=1 Stochastic batchsize=400 Stochastic batchsize=1000 Stochastic batchsize=2000 0.15 0.1 0.04 0.01 0 Block diagonal TONGA Stochastic batchsize=1 Stochastic batchsize=400 Stochastic batchsize=1000 Stochastic batchsize=2000 0.18 Negative log?likelihood 0.03 Block diagonal TONGA Stochastic batchsize=1 Stochastic batchsize=400 Stochastic batchsize=1000 Stochastic batchsize=2000 0.055 Classification error Classification error 0.04 0.2 0.06 Block diagonal TONGA Stochastic batchsize=1 Stochastic batchsize=400 Stochastic batchsize=1000 Stochastic batchsize=2000 0.05 Negative log?likelihood 0.06 0.02 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 CPU time (in seconds) 3500 4000 4500 (b) Test class error 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 CPU time (in seconds) 3500 (c) Train NLL 4000 4500 0.05 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 CPU time (in seconds) 3500 4000 4500 (d) Test NLL Figure 3: Comparison between stochastic gradient and TONGA on the MNIST dataset (50000 training examples), in terms of training and test classification error and Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL). The mean and standard error have been computed using 9 different initializations. Figure 3 shows that in terms of training CPU time (which includes the overhead due to TONGA), TONGA allows much faster convergence in training NLL, as well as in testing classification error and testing NLL than ordinary stochastic and minibatch gradient descent on this task. One can also note that minibatch stochastic gradient is able to profit from matrix-matrix multiplications, but this advantage is mainly seen in training classification error. 5.2 Rectangles problem The Rectangles-images task has been proposed in [5] to compare deep belief networks and support vector machines. It is a two-class problem and the inputs are 28 ? 28 grey-level images of rectangles located in varying locations and of different dimensions. The inside of the rectangle and the background are extracted from different real images. We used 900,000 training examples and 10,000 validation examples (no early stopping was performed, we show the whole training/validation curves). All the experiments are performed with a multi-layer network with a 784-200-200-100-2 architecture (previously found to work well on this dataset). Figure 4 shows that in terms of training CPU time, TONGA allows much faster convergence than ordinary stochastic gradient descent on this task, as well as lower classification error. 7 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 CPU time (in seconds) 2.5 3 (a) Train NLL error 3.5 4 x 10 0.5 Stochastic gradient Block diagonal TONGA 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 CPU time (in seconds) 2.5 3 3.5 4 x 10 (b) Test NLL error 0.2 Stochastic gradient Block diagonal TONGA 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 CPU time (in seconds) 2.5 3 (c) Train class error 3.5 4 x 10 Stochastic gradient Block diagonal TONGA 0.18 Classification error on the test set 0.45 0.2 0.18 Classification error on the training set Stochastic gradient Block diagonal TONGA 0.5 Negative log?likelihood on the test set Negative log?likelihood on the training set 0.55 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 CPU time (in seconds) 2.5 3 3.5 4 x 10 (d) Test class error Figure 4: Comparison between stochastic gradient descent and TONGA w.r.t. NLL and classification error, on training and validation sets for the rectangles problem (900,000 training examples). 6 Discussion [3] reviews the different gradient descent techniques in the online setting and discusses their respective properties. Particularly, he states that a second order online algorithm (i.e., with a search direction of is v = M g with g the gradient and M a positive semidefinite matrix) is optimal (in terms of convergence speed) when M converges to H ?1 . Furthermore, the speed of convergence depends (amongst other things) on the rank of the matrix M . Given the aforementioned relationship between the covariance and the Hessian matrices, the natural gradient is close to optimal in the sense defined above, provided the model has enough capacity. On mixture models where the block-diagonal approximation is appropriate, it allows us to maintain an approximation of much higher rank than a standard low-rank approximation of the full covariance matrix. Conclusion and future work We bring two main contributions in this paper. First, by looking for the descent direction with either the greatest probability of not increasing generalization error or the direction with the largest expected increase in generalization error, we obtain new justifications for the natural gradient descent direction. Second, we present an online low-rank approximation of natural gradient descent with computational complexity and CPU time similar to stochastic gradientr descent. In a number of experimental comparisons we find this optimization technique to beat stochastic gradient in terms of speed and generalization (or in generalization for a given amount of training time). Even though default values for the hyperparameters yield good results, it would be interesting to have an automatic procedure to select the best set of hyperparameters. References [1] S. Amari. Natural gradient works efficiently in learning. Neural Computation, 10(2):251?276, 1998. [2] S. Amari, H. Park, and K. Fukumizu. Adaptive method of realizing natural gradient learning for multilayer perceptrons. Neural Computation, 12(6):1399?1409, 2000. [3] L. Bottou. Stochastic learning. In O. Bousquet and U. von Luxburg, editors, Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning, number LNAI 3176 in Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, pages 146?168. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 2004. [4] R. Collobert. Large Scale Machine Learning. PhD thesis, Universit?e de Paris VI, LIP6, 2004. [5] H. Larochelle, D. Erhan, A. Courville, J. Bergstra, and Y. Bengio. An empirical evaluation of deep architectures on problems with many factors of variation. In Twenty-fourth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML?2007), 2007. [6] Y. LeCun, L. Bottou, G. Orr, and K.-R. M?uller. Efficient backprop. In G. Orr and K.-R. M?uller, editors, Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, pages 9?50. Springer, 1998. [7] K. B. Petersen and M. S. Pedersen. The matrix cookbook, feb 2006. Version 20051003. [8] N. N. Schraudolph. Fast curvature matrix-vector products for second-order gradient descent. Neural Computation, 14(7):1723?1738, 2002. [9] H. H. Yang and S. Amari. Natural gradient descent for training multi-layer perceptrons. Submitted to IEEE Tr. on Neural Networks, 1997. [10] H. H. Yang and S. Amari. Complexity issues in natural gradient descent method for training multi-layer perceptrons. Neural Computation, 10(8):2137?2157, 1998. 8
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Sparse Overcomplete Latent Variable Decomposition of Counts Data Madhusudana Shashanka Mars, Incorporated Hackettstown, NJ [email protected] Bhiksha Raj Mitsubishi Electric Research Labs Cambridge, MA [email protected] Paris Smaragdis Adobe Systems Newton, MA [email protected] Abstract An important problem in many fields is the analysis of counts data to extract meaningful latent components. Methods like Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been proposed for this purpose. However, they are limited in the number of components they can extract and lack an explicit provision to control the ?expressiveness? of the extracted components. In this paper, we present a learning formulation to address these limitations by employing the notion of sparsity. We start with the PLSA framework and use an entropic prior in a maximum a posteriori formulation to enforce sparsity. We show that this allows the extraction of overcomplete sets of latent components which better characterize the data. We present experimental evidence of the utility of such representations. 1 Introduction A frequently encountered problem in many fields is the analysis of histogram data to extract meaningful latent factors from it. For text analysis where the data represent counts of word occurrences from a collection of documents, popular techniques available include Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA; [6]) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA; [2]). These methods extract components that can be interpreted as topics characterizing the corpus of documents. Although they are primarily motivated by the analysis of text, these methods can be applied to analyze arbitrary count data. For example, images can be interpreted as histograms of multiple draws of pixels, where each draw corresponds to a ?quantum of intensity?. PLSA allows us to express distributions that underlie such count data as mixtures of latent components. Extensions to PLSA include methods that attempt to model how these components co-occur (eg. LDA, Correlated Topic Model [1]). One of the main limitations of these models is related to the number of components they can extract. Realistically, it may be expected that the number of latent components in the process underlying any dataset is unrestricted. However, the number of components that can be discovered by LDA or PLSA is restricted by the cardinality of the data, e.g. by the vocabulary of the documents, or the number of pixels of the image analyzed. Any analysis that attempts to find an overcomplete set of a larger number of components encounters the problem of indeterminacy and is liable to result in meaningless or trivial solutions. The second limitation of the models is related to the ?expressiveness? of the extracted components i.e. the information content in them. Although the methods aim to find ?meaningful? latent components, they do not actually provide any control over the information content in the components. In this paper, we present a learning formulation that addresses both these limitations by employing the notion of sparsity. Sparse coding refers to a representational scheme where, of a set of components that may be combined to compose data, only a small number are combined to represent any particular instance of the data (although the specific set of components may change from instance to 1 instance). In our problem, this translates to permitting the generating process to have an unrestricted number of latent components, but requiring that only a small number of them contribute to the composition of the histogram represented by any data instance. In other words, the latent components must be learned such that the mixture weights with which they are combined to generate any data have low entropy ? a set with low entropy implies that only a few mixture weight terms are significant. This addresses both the limitations. Firstly, it largely eliminates the problem of indeterminacy permitting us to learn an unrestricted number of latent components. Secondly, estimation of low entropy mixture weights forces more information on to the latent components, thereby making them more expressive. The basic formulation we use to extract latent components is similar to PLSA. We use an entropic prior to manipulate the entropy of the mixture weights. We formulate the problem in a maximum a posteriori framework and derive inference algorithms. We use an artificial dataset to illustrate the effects of sparsity on the model. We show through simulations that sparsity can lead to components that are more representative of the true nature of the data compared to conventional maximum likelihood learning. We demonstrate through experiments on images that the latent components learned in this manner are more informative enabling us to predict unobserved data. We also demonstrate that they are more discriminative than those learned using regular maximum likelihood methods. We then present conclusions and avenues for future work. 2 Latent Variable Decomposition Consider an F ? N count matrix V. We will consider each column of V to be the histogram of an independent set of draws from an underlying multinomial distribution over F discrete values. Each column of V thus represents counts in a unique data set. Vf n , the f th row entry of Vn , the nth column of V, represents the count of f (or the f th discrete symbol that may be generated by the multinomial) in the nth data set. For example, if the columns of V represent word count vectors for a collection of documents, Vf n would be the count of the f th word of the vocabulary in the nth document in the collection. We model all data as having been generated by a process that is characterized by a set of latent probability distributions that, although not directly observed, combine to compose the distribution of any data set. We represent the probability of drawing f from the z th latent distribution by P (f |z), where z is a latent variable. To generate any data set, the latent distributions P (f |z) are combined in proportions that are specific to that set. Thus, each histogram (column) in V is the outcome of draws from a distribution that is a column-specific composition of P (f |z). We can define the distribution underlying the nth column of V as X Pn (f ) = P (f |z)Pn (z), (1) z where Pn (f ) represents the probability of drawing f in the nth data set in V, and Pn (z) is the mixing proportion signifying the contribution of P (f |z) towards Pn (f ). Equation 1 is functionally identical to that used for Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis of text data [6]1 : if the columns Vn of V represent word count vectors for documents, P (f |z) represents the z th latent topic in the documents. Analogous interpretations may be proposed for other types of data as well. For example, if each column of V represents one of a collection of images (each of which has been unraveled into a column vector), the P (f |z)?s would represent the latent ?bases? that compose all images in the collection. In maintaining this latter analogy, we will henceforth refer to P (f |z) as the basis distributions for the process. Geometrically, the normalized columns of V (obtained by scaling the entries of Vn to sum to 1.0), ? n , which we refer to as data distributions, may be viewed as F -dimensional vectors that lie in an V (F ? 1) simplex. The distributions Pn (f ) and basis distributions P (f |z) are also F -dimensional vectors in the same simplex. The model expresses Pn (f ) as points within the convex hull formed by the basis distributions P (f |z). The aim of the model is to determine P (f |z) such that the model 1 P PLSA actually represents the joint distribution of n and f as P (n, f ) = P (n) z P (f |z)P (z|n). However the maximum likelihood estimate of P (n) is simply the fraction of all observations from all data sets that occurred in the nth data set and does not affect the estimation of P (f |z) and P (z|n). 2 2 Basis Vectors 3 Basis Vectors (010) (100) (010) (100) (001) Simplex Boundary Data Points Basis Vectors Approximation (001) Simplex Boundary Data Points Basis Vectors Convex Hull Figure 1: Illustration of the latent variable model. Panels show 3-dimensional data distributions as points within the Standard 2-Simplex given by {(001), (010), (100)}. The left panel shows a set of 2 Basis distributions (compact code) derived from the 400 data points. The right panel shows a set of 3 Basis distributions (complete code). The model approximates data distributions as points lying within the convex hull formed by the basis distributions. Also shown are two data points (marked by + and ?) and their approximations by the model (respectively shown by ? and ). ? n approximates it closely. Since Pn (f ) is constrained to lie within Pn (f ) for any data distribution V ? n accurately if the latter also lies within the the simplex defined by P (f |z), it can only model V ? hull. Any Vn that lies outside the hull is modeled with error. Thus, the objective of the model is to identify P (f |z) such that they form a convex hull surrounding the data distributions. This is illustrated in Figure 1 for a synthetic data set of 400 3-dimensional data distributions. 2.1 Parameter Estimation Given count matrix V, we estimate P (f |z) and Pn (z) to maximize the likelihood of V. This can be done through iterations of equations derived using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm: Pn (z)P (f |z) , Pn (z|f ) = P z Pn (z)P (f |z) and P f Vf n Pn (z|f ) Pn (z) = P P z f Vf n Pn (z|f ) P n Vf n Pn (z|f ) P (f |z) = P P , f n Vf n Pn (z|f ) (2) (3) Detailed derivation is shown in supplemental material. The EM algorithm guarantees that the above multiplicative updates converge to a local optimum. 2.2 Latent Variable Model as Matrix Factorization We can write the model given by equation (1) in matrix form as pn = Wgn , where pn is a column vector indicating Pn (f ), gn is a column vector indicating Pn (z), and W is a matrix with the (f, z)th element corresponding to P (f |z). If we characterize V by R basis distributions, W is an F ? R matrix. Concatenating all column vectors pn and gn as matrices P and G respectively, one can write the model as P = WG, where G is an R ? N matrix. It is easy to show (as demonstrated in the supplementary material) that the maximum likelihood estimator for P (f |z) and Pn (z) attempts to minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) distance between the normalized data distribution Vn and Pn (f ), weighted by the total count in Vn . In other words, the model of Equation (1) actually represents the decomposition V ? WGD = WH (4) th where D is an N ? N diagonal matrix, whose n diagonal element is the total number of counts in Vn and H = GD. The astute reader might recognize the decomposition of equation (4) as Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF; [8]). In fact equations (2) and (3) can be shown to be equivalent to one of the standard update rules for NMF. Representing the decomposition in matrix form immediately reveals one of the shortcomings of the basic model. If R, the number of basis distributions, is equal to F , then a trivial solution exists that achieves perfect decomposition: W = I; H = V, where I is the identity matrix (although the algorithm may not always arrive at this solution). However, this solution is no longer of any utility to us since our aim is to derive basis distributions that are characteristic of the data, whereas the 3 (100) Enclosing triangles for ?+?: ABG, ABD, ABE, ACG, ACD, ACE, ACF B A (010) C G F E D (001) Simplex Boundary Data Points Basis Vectors Figure 2: Illustration of the effect of sparsifying H on the dataset shown in Figure 1. A-G represent 7 basis distributions. The ?+? represents a typical data point. It can be accurately represented by any set of three or more bases that form an enclosing polygon and there are many such polygons. However, if we restrict the number of bases used to enclose ?+? to be minimized, only the 7 enclosing triangles shown remain as valid solutions. By further imposing the restriction that the entropy of the mixture weights with which the bases (corners) must be combined to represent ?+? must be minimum, only one triangle is obtained as the unique optimal enclosure. columns of W in this trivial solution are not specific to any data, but represent the dimensions of the space the data lie in. For overcomplete decompositions where R > F , the solution becomes indeterminate ? multiple perfect decompositions are possible. The indeterminacy of the overcomplete decomposition can, however, be greatly reduced by im? n must employ minimum number of basis posing a restriction that the approximation for any V distributions required. By further imposing the constraint that the entropy of gn must be minimized, the indeterminacy of the solution can often be eliminated as illustrated by Figure 2. This principle, which is related to the concept of sparse coding [5], is what we will use to derive overcomplete sets of basis distributions for the data. 3 Sparsity in the Latent Variable Model Sparse coding refers to a representational scheme where, of a set of components that may be combined to compose data, only a small number are combined to represent any particular input. In the context of basis decompositions, the goal of sparse coding is to find a set of bases for any data set such that the mixture weights with which the bases are combined to compose any data are sparse. Different metrics have been used to quantify the sparsity of the mixture weights in the literature. Some approaches minimize variants of the Lp norm of the mixture weights (eg. [7]) while other approaches minimize various approximations of the entropy of the mixture weights. In our approach, we use entropy as a measure of sparsity. We use the entropic prior, which has been used in the maximum entropy literature (see [9]) to manipulate entropy. Given P a probability distribution ?, the entropic prior is defined as Pe (?) ? e??H(?) , where H(?) = ? i ?i log ?i is the entropy of the distribution and ? is a weighting factor. Positive values of ? favor distributions with lower entropies while negative values of ? favor distributions with higher entropies. Imposing this prior during maximum a posteriori estimation is a way to manipulate the entropy of the distribution. The distribution ? could correspond to the basis distributions P (f |z) or the mixture weights Pn (z) or both. A sparse code would correspond to having the entropic prior on Pn (z) with a positive value for ?. Below, we consider the case where both the basis vectors and mixture weights have the entropic prior to keep the exposition general. 3.1 Parameter Estimation We use the EM algorithm to derive the update equations. Let us examine the case where both P (f |z) and Pn (z) have the entropic prior. The set of parameters to be estimated is given by ? = {P (f |z), Pn (z)}. The a priori distribution over the parameters, P (?), corresponds to the entropic priors. We can write log P (?), the log-prior, as ? XX z P (f |z) log P (f |z) + ? XX n f 4 z Pn (z) log Pn (z), (5) 3 Basis Vectors (010) (100) 7 Basis Vectors (010) (100) (001) (001) 7 Basis Vectors 7 Basis Vectors (010) Sparsity Param = 0.01 (010) 7 Basis Vectors (010) (100) Sparsity Param = 0.3 Sparsity Param = 0.05 (001) (010) (001) (100) (100) 10 Basis Vectors (100) (001) (001) Figure 3: Illustration of the effect of sparsity on the synthetic data set from Figure 1. For visual clarity, we do not display the data points. Top panels: Decomposition without sparsity. Sets of 3 (left), 7 (center), and 10 (right) basis distributions were obtained from the data without employing sparsity. In each case, 20 runs of the estimation algorithm were performed from different initial values. The convex hulls formed by the bases from each of these runs are shown in the panels from left to right. Notice that increasing the number of bases enlarges the sizes of convex hulls, none of which characterize the distribution of the data well. Bottom panels: Decomposition with sparsity. The panels from left to right show the 20 sets of estimates of 7 basis distributions, for increasing values of the sparsity parameter for the mixture weights. The convex hulls quickly shrink to compactly enclose the distribution of the data. where ? and ? are parameters indicating the degree of sparsity desired in P (f |z) and Pn (z) respectively. As before, we can write the E-step as Pn (z)P (f |z) Pn (z|f ) = P . z Pn (z)P (f |z) (6) The M-step reduces to the equations ? ? + ? + ? log P (f |z) + ?z = 0, + ? + ? log Pn (z) + ?n = 0 (7) P (f |z) Pn (z) P P where we have let ? represent n Vf n Pn (z|f ), ? represent f Vf n Pn (z|f ), and ?z , ?n are Lagrange multipliers. The above M-step equations are systems of simultaneous transcendental equations for P (f |z) and Pn (z). Brand [3] proposes a method to solve such equations using the Lambert W function [4]. It can be shown that P (f |z) and Pn (z) can be estimated as P? (f |z) = ??/? , W(??e1+?z /? /?) P?n (z) = ??/? . W(??e1+?n /? /?) (8) Equations (7), (8) form a set of fixed-point iterations that typically converge in 2-5 iterations [3]. The final update equations are given by equation (6), and the fixed-point equation-pairs (7), (8). Details of the derivation are provided in supplemental material. Notice that the above equations reduce to the maximum likelihood updates of equations (2) and (3) when ? and ? are set to zero. More generally, the EM algorithm aims to minimize the KL distance between the true distribution of the data and that of the model, i.e. it attempts to arrive at a model that conserves the entropy of the data, subject to the a priori constraints. Consequently, reducing entropy of the mixture weights Pn (z) to obtain a sparse code results in increased entropy (information) of basis distributions P (f |z). 3.2 Illustration of the Effect of Sparsity The effect and utility of sparse overcomplete representations is demonstrated by Figure 3. In this example, the data (from Figure 1) have four distinct quadrilaterally located clusters. This structure cannot be accurately represented by three or fewer basis distributions, since they can, at best specify 5 A. Occluded Faces B. Reconstructions C. Original Test Images Figure 4: Application of latent variable decomposition for reconstructing faces from occluded images (CBCL Database). (A). Example of a random subset of 36 occluded test images. Four 6 ? 6 patches were removed from the images in several randomly chosen configurations (corresponding to the rows). (B). Reconstructed faces from a sparse-overcomplete basis set of 1000 learned components (sparsity parameter = 0.1). (C). Original test images shown for comparison. a triangular simplex, as demonstrated by the top left panel in the figure. Simply increasing the number of bases without constraining the sparsity of the mixture weights does not provide meaningful solutions. However, increasing the sparsity quickly results in solutions that accurately characterize the distribution of the data. A clearer intuition is obtained when we consider the matrix form of the decomposition in Equation 4. The goal of the decomposition is often to identify a set of latent distributions that characterize the underlying process that generated the data V. When no sparsity is enforced on the solution, the trivial solution W = I, H = V is obtained at R = F . In this solution, the entire information in V is borne by H and the bases W becomes uninformative, i.e. they no longer contain information about the underlying process. However, by enforcing sparsity on H the information V is transferred back to W, and non-trivial solutions are possible for R > F . As R increases, however, W become more and more data-like. At R = N another trivial solution is obtained: W = V, and H = D (i.e. G = I). The columns of W now simply represent (scaled versions) of the specific data V rather than the underlying process. For R > N the solutions will now become indeterminate. By enforcing sparsity, we have thus increased the implicit limit on the number of bases that can be estimated without indeterminacy from the smaller dimension of V to the larger one. 4 Experimental Evaluation We hypothesize that if the learned basis distribution are characteristic of the process that generates the data, they must not only generalize to explain new data from the process, but also enable prediction of components of the data that were not observed. Secondly, the bases for a given process must be worse at explaining data that have been generated by any other process. We test both these hypotheses below. In both experiments we utilize images, which we interpret as histograms of repeated draws of pixels, where each draw corresponds to a quantum of intensity. 4.1 Face Reconstruction In this experiment we evaluate the ability of the overcomplete bases to explain new data and predict the values of unobserved components of the data. Specifically, we use it to reconstruct occluded portions of images. We used the CBCL database consisting of 2429 frontal view face images handaligned in a 19 ? 19 grid. We preprocessed the images by linearly scaling the grayscale intensities so that pixel mean and standard deviation was 0.25, and then clipped them to the range [0, 1]. 2000 images were randomly chosen as the training set. 100 images from the remaining 429 were randomly chosen as the test set. To create occluded test images, we removed 6 ? 6 grids in ten random configurations for 10 test faces each, resulting in 100 occluded images. We created 4 sets of test images, where each set had one, two, three or four 6 ? 6 patches removed. Figure 4A represents the case where 4 patches were removed from each face. In a training stage, we learned sets of K ? {50, 200, 500, 750, 1000} basis distributions from the training data. Sparsity was not used in the compact (R < F ) case (50 and 200 bases) and sparsity 6 Basis Vectors Basis Vectors Mixture Weights Mixture Weights Pixel Image Pixel Image Figure 5: 25 Basis distributions (represented as images) extracted for class ?2? from training data without sparsity on mixture weights (Left Panel, sparsity parameter = 0) and with sparsity on mixture weights (Right Panel, sparsity parameter = 0.2). Basis images combine in proportion to the mixture weights shown to result in the pixel images shown. ?=0 ? = 0.2 ? = 0.5 Figure 6: 25 basis distributions learned from training data for class ?3? with increasing sparsity parameters on the mixture weights. The sparsity parameter was set to 0, 0.2 and 0.5 respectively. Increasing the sparsity parameter of mixture weights produces bases which are holistic representations of the input (histogram) data instead of parts-like features. was imposed (parameter = 0.1) on the mixture weights in the overcomplete cases (500, 750 and 1000 basis vectors). The procedure for estimating the occluded regions of the a test image has two steps. In the first step, we estimate the distribution underlying the image as a linear combination of the basis distributions. This is done by iterations of Equations 2 and 3 to estimate Pn (z) (the bases P (f |z), being already known, stay fixed) based only on the pixels that are observed (i.e. we marginalize out the occluded pixels). The combination of the bases P (f |z) and the estimated Pn (z) give us the overall distribution Pn (f ) for the image. The occluded pixel P values at any pixel Pf is estimated as the expected number of counts at the pixels, given by Pn (f )( f ? ?{Fo } Vf ? )/( f ? ?{Fo } Pn (f ? )) where Vf represents the value of the image at the f th pixel and {Fo } is the set of observed pixels. Figure 4B shows the reconstructed faces for the sparse-overcomplete case of 1000 basis vectors. Figure 7A summarizes the results for all cases. Performance is measured by mean Signal-to-Noise-Ratio (SNR), where SNR for an image was computed as the ratio of the sum of squared pixel intensities of the original image to the sum of squared error between the original image pixels and the reconstruction. 4.2 Handwritten Digit Classification In this experiment we evaluate the specificity of the bases to the process represented by the training data set, through a simple example of handwritten digit classification. We used the USPS Handwritten Digits database which has 1100 examples for each digit class. We randomly chose 100 examples from each class and separated them as the test set. The remaining examples were used for training. During training, separate sets of basis distributions P k (f |z) were learned for each class, where k represents the index of the class. Figure 5 shows 25 bases images extracted for the digit ?2?. To classify any test image v, we attempted to compute the distribution underlying the image using the bases for each class (by estimating the mixture weights Pvk (z), keeping the bases fixed, as before). The ?match? of the bases by the likelihood Lk of the image comP to the test instance was indicated P puted using P k (f ) = z P k (f |z)Pvk (z) as Lk = f vf log P k (f ). Since we expect the bases for the true class of the image to best compose it, we expect the likelihood for the correct class to be maximum. Hence, the image v was assigned to the class for which likelihood was the highest. 7 A. Reconstruction Experiment 24 5 1 patch 2 patches 3 patches 4 patches 22 25 50 75 100 200 4.5 Percentage Error 20 Mean SNR B. Classification Experiment 18 16 14 4 3.5 3 12 2.5 10 8 50 200 500 750 2 0 1000 Number of Basis Components 0.05 0.1 Sparsity Parameter 0.2 0.3 Figure 7: (A). Results of the face Reconstruction experiment. Mean SNR of the reconstructions is shown as a function of the number of basis vectors and the test case (number of deleted patches, shown in the legend). Notice that the sparse-overcomplete codes consistently perform better than the compact codes. (B). Results of the classification experiment. The legend shows number of basis distributions used. Notice that imposing sparsity almost always leads to better classification performance. In the case of 100 bases, error rate comes down by almost 50% when a sparsity parameter of 0.3 is imposed. Results are shown in Figure 7B. As one can see, imposing sparsity improves classification performance in almost all cases. Figure 6 shows three sets of basis distributions learned for class ?3? with different sparsity values on the mixture weights. As the sparsity parameter is increased, bases tend to be holistic representations of the input histograms. This is consistent with improved classification performance - as the representation of basis distributions gets more holistic, the more unlike they become when compared to bases of other classes. Thus, there is a lesser chance that the bases of one class can compose an image in another class, thereby improving performance. 5 Conclusions In this paper, we have presented an algorithm for sparse extraction of overcomplete sets of latent distributions from histogram data. We have used entropy as a measure of sparsity and employed the entropic prior to manipulate the entropy of the estimated parameters. We showed that sparseovercomplete components can lead to an improved characterization of data and can be used in applications such as classification and inference of missing data. We believe further improved characterization may be achieved by the imposition of additional priors that represent known or hypothesized structure in the data, and will be the focus of future research. References [1] DM Blei and JD Lafferty. Correlated Topic Models. In NIPS, 2006. [2] DM Blei, AY Ng, and MI Jordan. Latent Dirichlet Allocation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:993?1022, 2003. [3] ME Brand. Pattern Discovery via Entropy Minimization. In Uncertainty 99: AISTATS 99, 1999. [4] RM Corless, GH Gonnet, DEG Hare, DJ Jeffrey, and DE Knuth. On the Lambert W Function. Advances in Computational mathematics, 1996. [5] DJ Field. What is the Goal of Sensory Coding? Neural Computation, 1994. [6] T Hofmann. Unsupervised Learning by Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis. Machine Learning, 42:177?196, 2001. [7] PO Hoyer. Non-negative Matrix Factorization with Sparseness Constraints. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5, 2004. [8] DD Lee and HS Seung. Algorithms for Non-negative Matrix Factorization. In NIPS, 2001. [9] J Skilling. Classic Maximum Entropy. In J Skilling, editor, Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. Kluwer Academic, 1989. 8
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Second Order Bilinear Discriminant Analysis for single-trial EEG analysis Christoforos Christoforou Department of Computer Science The Graduate Center of the City University of New York 365 Fifth Avenue New York, NY 10016-4309 [email protected] Paul Sajda Department of Biomedical Engineering Columbia University 351 Engineering Terrace Building, MC 8904 1210 Amsterdam Avenue New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Lucas C. Parra Department of Biomedical Engineering The City College of The City University of New York Convent Avenue 138th Street New York,NY 10031, USA [email protected] Abstract Traditional analysis methods for single-trial classification of electroencephalography (EEG) focus on two types of paradigms: phase locked methods, in which the amplitude of the signal is used as the feature for classification, e.g. event related potentials; and second order methods, in which the feature of interest is the power of the signal, e.g. event related (de)synchronization. The procedure for deciding which paradigm to use is ad hoc and is typically driven by knowledge of the underlying neurophysiology. Here we propose a principled method, based on a bilinear model, in which the algorithm simultaneously learns the best first and second order spatial and temporal features for classification of EEG. The method is demonstrated on simulated data as well as on EEG taken from a benchmark data used to test classification algorithms for brain computer interfaces. 1 1.1 Introduction Utility of discriminant analysis in EEG Brain computer interface (BCI) algorithms [1][2][3][4] aim to decode brain activity, on a singletrial basis, in order to provide a direct control pathway between a user?s intentions and a computer. Such an interface could provide ?locked in patients? a more direct and natural control over a neuroprosthesis or other computer applications [2]. Further, by providing an additional communication 1 channel for healthy individuals, BCI systems can be used to increase productivity and efficiency in high-throughput tasks [5, 6]. Single-trial discriminant analysis has also been used as a research tool to study the neural correlates of behavior. By extracting activity that differs maximally between two experimental conditions, the typically low signal-noise ratio of EEG can be overcome. The resulting discriminant components can be used to identify the spatial origin and time course of stimulus/response specific activity, while the improved SNR can be leveraged to correlate variability of neural activity across trials to behavioral variability and behavioral performance [7, 5]. In essence, discriminant analysis adds to the existing set of multi-variate statistical tools commonly used in neuroscience research (ANOVA, Hoteling T 2 , Wilks? ? test). 1.2 Linear and quadratic approaches In EEG the signal-to-noise ratio of individual channels is low, often at -20dB or less. To overcome this limitation, all analysis methods perform some form of averaging, either across repeated trials, across time, or across electrodes. Traditional EEG analysis averages signals across many repeated trials for individual electrodes. A conventional method is to average the measured potentials following stimulus presentation, thereby canceling uncorrelated noise that is not reproducible from one trial to the next. This averaged activity, called an event related potential (ERP), captures activity that is time-locked to the stimulus presentation but cancels evoked oscillatory activity that is not locked in phase to the timing of the stimulus. Alternatively, many studies compute the oscillatory activity in specific frequency bands by filtering and squaring the signal prior to averaging. Thus, changes in oscillatory activity are termed event related synchronization or desynchronization (ERS/ERD). Surprisingly, discriminant analysis methods developed thus far by the machine learning community have followed this dichotomy: First order methods in which the amplitude of the EEG signal is considered to be the feature of interest in classification ? corresponding to ERP ? and second order methods in which the power of the feature is considered to be of importance for classification ? corresponding to ERS/ERD. First order methods include temporal filtering + thresholding [2], hierarchical linear classifiers [5] and bilinear discriminant analysis [8, 9]. Second order methods include the logistic regression with a quadratic term [11] and the well known common spatial patterns method (CSP) [10] and its variants: common spatio-spectral patterns (CSSP)[12], and common sparse spectral spatial patterns (CSSSP)[13] . Choosing what kind of features to use traditionally has been an ad hoc process motivated by knowledge of the underlying neurophysiology and task. From a machine-learning point of view, it seems limiting to commit a priori to only one type of feature. Instead it would be desirable for the analysis method to extract the relevant neurophysiological activity de novo with minimal prior expectations. In this paper we present a new framework that combines both the first order features and the second order features in the analysis of EEG. We use a bilinear formulation which can simultaneously extract spatial linear components as well as temporal (filtered) features. 2 2.1 Second order bilinear discriminant analysis Problem setting D?T Given a set of sample points D = {Xn , yn }N , y ? {?1, 1} , where Xn corresponds n=1 , X ? R to the EEG signal of D channels and T sample points and yn indicate the class that corresponds to one of two conditions (e.g. right or left hand imaginary movement, stimulus versus control conditions, etc.), the task is then to predict the class label y for an unobserved trial X. 2.2 Second order bilinear model Define a function, f (X; ?) = C Trace(UT XV) + (1 ? C) Trace(?AT (XB)(XB)T A) 0 (1) where ? = {U ? RD ? R , V ? RT ? R , A ? RD ? K B ? RT ? T } are the parameters of the model, ? ? diag({?1, 1}) a given diagonal matrix with elements {?1, 1} and C ? [0, 1]. We consider the 2 following discriminative model; we model the log-odds ratio of the posterior class probability to be the sum of a bilinear function with respect to the EEG signal amplitude and linear with respect to the second order statistics of the EEG signal: P (y = +1|X) log = f (X|?) (2) P (y = ?1|X) 2.2.1 Interpretation of the model The first term of the equation (1) can be interpreted as a spatio-temporal projection of the signal, under the bilinear model, and captures the first order statistics of the signal. Specifically, the columns ur of U represent R linear projections in space (rows of X). Similarly, each of the R columns of vk in matrix V represent linear projections in time (columns of X). By re-writing the term as: Trace(UT XV) = Trace(VUT X) = Trace(WT X) (3) T where we defined W = UV , it is easy to see that the bilinear projection is a linear combination of elements of X with the rank ? R constrained on W. This expression is linear in X and thus captures directly the amplitude of the signal directly. In particular, the polarity of the signal (positive evoked response versus negative evoked response) will contribute significantly to discrimination if it is consistent across trials. This term, therefore, captures phase locked event related potentials in the EEG signal. The second term of equation (1), is a projection of the power of the filtered signal, which captures the second order statistics of the signal. As before, each column of matrix A and B, represent components that project the data in space and time respectively. Depending on the structure one enforces in matrix B different interpretations of the model can be archived. In the general case where no structure on B is assumed, the model captures a linear combination of the elements of a rank ? T 0 second order matrix approximation of the signal ? = XB(XB)T . In the case where Toeplitz structure is enforced on B, then B defines a temporal filter on the signal and the model captures the linear combination of the power of the second order matrix of the filtered signal. For example if B is fixed to a Toeplitz matrix with coefficients corresponding to a 8Hz-12Hz band pass filter, then the second term is able to extract differences in the alpha-band which is known to be modulated during motor related tasks. Further, by learning B from the data, we may be able to identify new frequency bands that have so far not been identified in novel experimental paradigms. The spatial weights A together with the Trace operation ensure that the power is measured, not in individual electrodes, but in some component space that may reflect activity distributed across several electrodes. Finally, the scaling factor ? (which may seem superfluous given the available degrees of freedom) is necessary once regularization terms are added to the log-likelihood function. 2.3 Logistic regression We use a logistic Rregression (LR) formalism as it is particularly convenient when imposing additional statistical properties on the matrices U, V, A, B such as smoothness or sparseness. In addition, in our experience, LR performs well in strongly overlapping high-dimensional datasets and is insensitive to outliers, the later being of particular concern when including quadratic features. Under the logistic regression model (2) the class posterior probability P (y|X; ?) is modeled as 1 P (y|X; ?) = (4) 1 + e?y(f (X;?)+wo ) and the resulting log likelihood is given by L(?) = ? N X log(1 + e?y(f (Xn ;?)+wo ) ) (5) n=1 We minimize the negative log likelihood and add a log-prior on each of the columns of U, V and A and parameters of B that act as a regularization term, which is written as: ? ? R K T0 X X X argmin ??L(?) ? (log p(ur ) + log p(vr )) ? log p(ak ) ? log(p(bt ))? (6) U,V,A,B,wo r=1 k=1 3 t=1 (u) where the log-priors are given for each of the parameters as log p(uk ) = uT uk kK T (v) T (a) T (b) , log p(vk ) = uk K uk , log p(ak ) = ak K ak and log p(bk ) = bk K bk . K(u) ? RD?D , K(v) ? RT ?T , K(a) ? RD?D , K(b) ? RT ?T are kernel matrices that control the smoothness of the parameter space. Details on the regularization procedure can be found in [8]. Analytic gradients of the log likelihood (5) with respect to the various parameters are given by: N X yn ?(Xn )Xn vr (7) N X yn ?(Xn )ur Xn (8) ?L(?) ?ur = ?L(?) ?vr = ?L(?) ?ar = 2 ?L(?) ?bt = 2 n=1 n=1 N X yn ?(Xn )?r,r (Xn B)(Xn B)T ar N X yn ?(Xn )XT A?AT Xbt (10) n=1 where we define e?y(f (Xn ;?)+wo ) 1 + e?y(f (Xn ;?)+wo ) columns of U, V, A, B respectively. ?(Xn ) = 1 ? P (y|X) = where ui , vi , ai , and bi correspond to the ith 2.4 (9) n=1 (11) Fourier Basis for B If matrix B is constrained to have a circular toepliz structure then it can be represented as B = F?1 DF, where F?1 denotes the inverse Fourier matrix, and D is a diagonal complex-valued matrix of Fourier coefficients. In such a case, we can re-write equations (9) and (10) as ?L(?) ?ar ?L(?) ?di = 2 N X ? ?T XT )ar yn ?(Xn )?r,r (Xn F?1 DF n (12) N X T ?1 yn ?(Xn )(F?T XT )i,i di n A?A Xn F (13) n=1 = 2 n=1 (14) ? = DDT , and the parameters are now optimized with respect to Fourier coefficients di = where D Di,i . An iterative minimization procedure can be used to solve the above minimization. 3 3.1 Results Simulated data In order to validate our method and its ability to capture both linear and second order features, we generated simulated data that contained both types of features; namely ERP type of features and ERS/ERD type of features. The simulated signals were generated with a signal to noise ratio of ?20dB which is a typical noise level for EEG. A total of 28 channels, 500 ms long signals and at a sampling frequency of 100Hz where generated, resulting in a matrix of X of 28 by 50 elements, for each trial. Data corresponding to a total of 1000 trials were generated; 500 trials contained only zero mean Gaussian noise (representing baseline conditions), with the other 500 trials having the signal of interest added to the noise (representing the stimulus condition): For channels 1-9 the signal was composed of a 10Hz sinusoid with random phase in each of the nine channels, and across trials. The 4 U component V Component 1.5 0.4 0.3 amplitude 1 0.5 0 ?0.5 0.2 0.1 0 0 10 20 ?0.1 30 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 time(m/s) channels A component 350 400 450 500 350 400 450 500 B component 1.5 0.15 0.1 1 amplitute 0.05 0.5 0 ?0.05 ?0.1 0 ?0.15 ?0.5 0 10 20 30 ?0.2 0 50 100 150 channels 200 250 300 time (m/s) Figure 1: Spatial and temporal component extracted on simulated data for the linear term (top) and quadratic term (bottom). sinusoids were scaled to match the ?20dB SNR. This simulates an ERS type feature. For channels 10-18, a peak represented by a half cycle sinusoid was added at approximately 400 ms, which T simulates an ERP type feature. The extracted components are shown in Figure 1. The linear component U (in this case only a column vector) has non-zero coefficients for channels 10 to 18 only, showing that the method correctly identified the ERP activity. Furthermore, the associated temporal component V has a temporal profile that matches the time course of the simulated evoked response. Similarly, the second order components A have non-zero weights for only channels 1-9 showing that the method also identified the spatial distribution of the non-phase locked activity. The temporal filter B was trained in the frequency domain and the resulting filter is shown here in the time domain. It exhibits a dominant 10Hz component, which is indeed the frequency of the non-phase locked activity. 3.2 BCI competition dataset To evaluate the performance of the proposed method on real data we applied the algorithm to an EEG data set that was made available through The BCI Competition 2003 ([14], Data Set IV). EEG was recorded on 28 channels for a single subject performing self-paced key typing, that is, pressing the corresponding keys with the index and little fingers in a self-chosen order and timing (i.e. self-paced). Key-presses occurred at an average speed of 1 key per second. Trial matrices were extracted by epoching the data starting 630ms before each key-press. A total of 416 epochs were recorded, each of length 500ms. For the competition, the first 316 epochs were to be used for classifier training, while the remaining 100 epochs were to be used as a test set. Data were recorded at 1000 Hz with a pass-band between 0.05 and 200 Hz, then downsampled to 100Hz sampling rate. For this experiment, the matrix B was fixed to a Toeplitz structure that encodes a 10Hz33Hz bandpass filter and only the parameters U, V, A and w0 were trained. The number of columns of U and V were set to 1, where two columns were used for A. The temporal filter was selected based on prior knowledge of the relevant frequency band. This demonstrates the flexibility of our approach to either incorporate prior knowledge when available or extract it from 5 U component V component 0.1 0.05 0 ?0.05 ?0.1 First Column of A 0 100 200 300 time (m/s) 400 500 Second Column of A Figure 2: Spatial and temporal component (top), and two spatial components for second order features (bottom) learned on the benchmark dataset data otherwise. Regularization parameters where chosen via a five fold cross validation procedure (details can be found in [8]). The resulting components for this dataset are shown in Figure 2. Benchmark performance was measured on the test set which had not been used during either training or cross validation. The number of misclassified trials in the test set was 13 which places our method on a new first place given the results of the competition which can be found online http://ida.first.fraunhofer.de/projects/bci/competition ii/results/index.html ([14]). Hence, our method works as a classifier producing a state-of-the art result on a realistic data set. The receiveroperator characteristic (ROC) curve for cross validation and for the independent testset are shown in Figure 3. Figure 3.2 also shows the contribution of the linear and quadratic terms for every trial for the two types of key-presses. The figure shows that the two terms provide independent information and that in this case the optimal relative weighting factor is C ? 0.5. 4 Conclusion In this paper we have presented a framework for uncovering spatial as well as temporal features in EEG that combine the two predominant paradigms used in EEG analysis: event related potentials and oscillatory power. These represent phase locked activity (where polarity of the activity matters), and non-phase locked activity (where only the power of the signal is relevant). We used the probabilistic formalism of logistic regression that readily incorporates prior probabilities to regularize the increased number of parameters. We have evaluated the proposed method on both simulated data, and a real BCI benchmark dataset, achieving state-of-the-art classification performance. The proposed method provides a basis for various future directions. For example, different sets of basis functions (other than a Fourier basis) can be enforced on the temporal decomposition of the data through the matrix B (e.g. wavelet basis). Further, the method can be easily generalized to 6 AUC : 0.935 #errors:13 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 True positive rate True positive rate AUC : 0.96 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 False positive rate 0.8 0 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 False positive rate 0.8 1 Figure 3: ROC curve with area under the curve 0.96 for the cross validation on the benchmark dataset (left). ROC curve with area under the curve 0.93, on the independent test set, for the benchmark dataset. There were a total of 13 errors on unseen data, which is less than any of the results previously reported, placing this method in first place in the benchmark ranking. Training Set Testing set 5 second order term second order term 10 5 0 ?5 0 ?5 ?10 ?15 ?20 ?10 ?10 0 first order term 10 ?15 ?10 ?5 0 first order term 5 10 Figure 4: Scatter plot of the first order term vs second order term of the model, on the training and testing set for the benchmark dataset (?+? left key, and ?o? right key). It is clear that the two types of features contain independent information that can help improve the classification performance. 7 multi-class problems by using a multinomial distribution on y. Finally, different regularizations (i.e L1 norm, L2 norm) can be applied to the different types of parameters of the model. References [1] J. R. Wolpaw, N. Birbaumer, D. J. McFarland, G. Pfurtscheller, and T. M. Vaughan. Brain-computer interfaces for communication and control. Clin Neurophysiol, 113(6):767?791, June 2002. [2] N. Birbaumer, N. Ghanayim, T. Hinterberger, I. Iversen, B. Kotchoubey, A. Kubler, J. Perelmouter, E. Taub, and H. Flor. A spelling device for the paralysed. Nature, 398(6725):297?8, Mar FebruaryMay 1999. [3] B. Blankertz, G. Curio, and K. uller. Classifying single trial eeg: Towards brain computer interfacing. In T. G. Diettrich, S. Becker, and Z. Ghahramani, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14. MIT Press, 2002., 2002. [4] B. Blankertz, G. Dornhege, C. Schfer, R. Krepki, J. Kohlmorgen, K. Mller, V. Kunzmann, F. Losch, and G. Curio. Boosting bit rates and error detection for the classification of fast-paced motor commands based on single-trial eeg analysis. IEEE Trans. Neural Sys. Rehab. Eng., 11(2):127?131, 2003. [5] Adam D. Gerson, Lucas C. Parra, and Paul Sajda. Cortically-coupled computer vision for rapid image search. IEEE Transactions on Neural Systems and Rehabilitation Engineering, 14:174?179, June 2006. [6] Lucas C. Parra, Christoforos Christoforou, Adam D. Gerson, Mads Dyrholm, An Luo, Mark Wagner, Marios G. Philiastides, and Paul Sajda. Spatiotemporal linear decoding of brain state: Application to performance augmentation in high-throughput tasks. IEEE, Signal Processing Magazine, January 2008. [7] Philiastides Marios G., Ratcliff Roger, and Sajda Paul. Neural representation of task difficulty and decision making during perceptual categorization: A timing diagram. Journal of Neuroscience, 26(35): 8965?8975, August 2006. [8] Mads Dyrholm, Christoforos Christoforou, and Lucas C. Parra. Bilinear discriminant component analysis. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 8:1097?1111, 2007. [9] Ryota Tomioka and Kazuyuki Aihara. Classifying matrices with a spectral regularization. In 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2007. [10] H. Ramoser, J. M?uller-Gerking, and G. Pfurtscheller. Optimal spatial filtering of single trial EEG during imagined hand movement. IEEE Trans. Rehab. Eng., 8:441?446, December 2000. [11] Ryota Tomioka, Kazuyuki Aihara, and Klaus-Robert Mller. Logistic regression for single trial eeg classification. In B. Sch?olkopf, J. Platt, and T. Hoffman, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 1377?1384. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [12] S. Lemm, B. Blankertz, G. Curio, and K. Muller. Spatio-spectral filters for improving the classification of single trial eeg. IEEE Trans Biomed Eng., 52(9):1541?8, 2005., 2005. [13] Dornhege G., Blankertz B, and K.R. Krauledat M. Losch F. Curio G.Muller. Combined optimization of spatial and temporal filters for improving brain-computer interfacing. IEEE Trans. Biomed. Eng. 2006, 2006. [14] B. Blankertz, K.-R. Muller, G. Curio, T.M. Vaughan, G. Schalk, J.R. Wolpaw, A. Schlogl, C. Neuper, G. Pfurtscheller, T. Hinterberger, M. Schroder, and N. Birbaumer. The bci competition 2003: progress and perspectives in detection and discrimination of eeg single trials. Biomedical Engineering, IEEE Transactions on, 51(6):1044?1051, 2004. 8
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Learning Horizontal Connections in a Sparse Coding Model of Natural Images Pierre J. Garrigues Department of EECS Redwood Center for Theoretical Neuroscience Univ. of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] Bruno A. Olshausen Helen Wills Neuroscience Inst. School of Optometry Redwood Center for Theoretical Neuroscience Univ. of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] Abstract It has been shown that adapting a dictionary of basis functions to the statistics of natural images so as to maximize sparsity in the coefficients results in a set of dictionary elements whose spatial properties resemble those of V1 (primary visual cortex) receptive fields. However, the resulting sparse coefficients still exhibit pronounced statistical dependencies, thus violating the independence assumption of the sparse coding model. Here, we propose a model that attempts to capture the dependencies among the basis function coefficients by including a pairwise coupling term in the prior over the coefficient activity states. When adapted to the statistics of natural images, the coupling terms learn a combination of facilitatory and inhibitory interactions among neighboring basis functions. These learned interactions may offer an explanation for the function of horizontal connections in V1 in terms of a prior over natural images. 1 Introduction Over the last decade, mathematical explorations into the statistics of natural scenes have led to the observation that these scenes, as complex and varied as they appear, have an underlying structure that is sparse [1]. That is, one can learn a possibly overcomplete basis set such that only a small fraction of the basis functions is necessary to describe a given image, where the operation to infer this sparse representation is non-linear. This approach is known as sparse coding. Exploiting this structure has led to advances in our understanding of how information is represented in the visual cortex, since the learned basis set is a collection of oriented, Gabor-like filters that resemble the receptive fields in primary visual cortex (V1). The approach of using sparse coding to infer sparse representations of unlabeled data is useful for classification as shown in the framework of self-taught learning [2]. Note that classification performance relies on finding ?hard-sparse? representations where a few coefficients are nonzero while all the others are exactly zero. An assumption of the sparse coding model is that the coefficients of the representation are independent. However, in the case of natural images, this is not the case. For example, the coefficients corresponding to quadrature pair or colinear Gabor filters are not independent. This has been shown and modeled in the early work of [3], in the case of the responses of model complex cells [4], feedforward responses of wavelet coefficients [5, 6, 7] or basis functions learned using independent component analysis [8, 9]. These dependencies are informative and exploiting them leads to improvements in denoising performance [5, 7]. We develop here a generative model of image patches that does not make the independence assumption. The prior over the coefficients is a mixture of a Gaussian when the corresponding basis 1 function is active, and a delta function centered at zero when it is silent as in [10]. We model the binary variables or ?spins? that control the activation of the basis functions with an Ising model, whose coupling weights model the dependencies among the coefficients. The representations inferred by this model are also ?hard-sparse?, which is a desirable feature [2]. Our model is motivated in part by the architecture of the visual cortex, namely the extensive network of horizontal connections among neurons in V1 [11]. It has been hypothesized that they facilitate contour integration [12] and are involved in computing border ownership [13]. In both of these models the connections are set a priori based on geometrical properties of the receptive fields. We propose here to learn the connection weights in an unsupervised fashion. We hope with our model to gain insight into the the computations performed by this extensive collateral system and compare our findings to known physiological properties of these horizontal connections. Furthermore, a recent trend in neuroscience is to model networks of neurons using Ising models, and it has been shown to predict remarkably well the statistics of groups of neurons in the retina [14]. Our model gives a prediction for what is expected if one fits an Ising model to future multi-unit recordings in V1. 2 A non-factorial sparse coding model Let x ? Rn be an image patch, where the xi ?s are the pixel values. We propose the following generative model: m X x = ?a + ? = ai ?i + ?, i=1 n?m where ? = [?1 . . . ?m ] ? R is an overcomplete transform or basis set, and the columns ?i are its basis functions. ? ? N (0, ?2 In ) is small Gaussian noise. Each coefficient ai = si2+1 ui is a Gaussian scale mixture (GSM). We model the multiplier s with an Ising model, i.e. s ? {?1, 1}m T 1 T has a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution p(s) = Z1 e 2 s W s+b s , where Z is the normalization constant. If the spin si is down (si = ?1), then ai = 0 and the basis function ?i is silent. If the spin si is up (si = 1), then the basis function is active and the analog value of the coefficient ai is drawn from a Gaussian distribution with ui ? N (0, ?i2 ). The prior on a can thus be described as a ?hard-sparse? prior as it is a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Gaussian. The corresponding graphical model is shown in Figure 1. It is a chain graph since it contains both undirected and directed edges. It bears similarities to [15], which however does not have the intermediate layer a and is not a sparse coding model. To sample from this generative model, one first obtains a sample s from the Ising model, then samples coefficients a according to p(a | s), and then x according to p(x | a) ? N (?a, ?2 In ). W1m s1 s2 a1 a2 sm W2m am ? x1 x2 xn Figure 1: Proposed graphical model The parameters of the model to be learned from data are ? = (?, (?i2 )i=1..m , W, b). This model does not make any assumption about which linear code ? should be used, and about which units should exhibit dependencies. The matrix W of the interaction weights in the Ising model describes these dependencies. Wij > 0 favors positive correlations and thus corresponds to an excitatory connection, whereas Wij < 0 corresponds to an inhibitory connection. A local magnetic field bi < 0 favors the spin si to be down, which in turn makes the basis function ?i mostly silent. 2 3 Inference and learning 3.1 Coefficient estimation We describe here how to infer the representation a of an image patch x in our model. To do so, we first compute the maximum a posteriori (MAP) multiplier s (see Section 3.2). Indeed, a GSM model reduces to a linear-Gaussian model conditioned on the multiplier s, and therefore the estimation of a is easy once s is known. Given s = s?, let ? = {i : s?i = 1} be the set of active basis functions. We know that ?i ? / ?, ai = 0. Hence, we have x = ?? a? + ?, where a? = (ai )i?? and ?? = [(?i )i?? ]. The model reduces thus to linear-Gaussian, where a? ? N (0, H = diag((?i2 )i?? )). We have a? | x, s? ? N (?, K), where K = (??2 ?? ?T? + H ?1 )?1 and ? = ??2 K?T? x. Hence, conditioned on x and s?, the Bayes Least-Square (BLS) and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators of a? are the same and given by ?. 3.2 Multiplier estimation The MAP estimate of s given x is given byPs? = arg maxs p(s | x). Given s, x has a Gaussian distribution N (0, ?), where ? = ?2 In + i : si =1 ?i2 ?i ?Ti . Using Bayes? rule, we can write p(s | x) ? p(x | s)p(s) ? e?Ex (s) , where 1 T ?1 1 1 x ? x + log det ? ? sT W s ? bT s. 2 2 2 We can thus compute the MAP estimate using Gibbs sampling and simulated annealing. In the Gibbs sampling procedure, the probability that node i changes its value from si to s?i given x, all the other nodes s?i and at temperature T is given by ?1   ?Ex p(si ? s?i |s?i , x) = 1 + exp ? , T Ex (s) = where ?Ex = Ex (si , s?i ) ? Ex (s?i , s?i ). Note that computing Ex requires the inverse and the ? and ? be the covariance matrices corresponding to the determinant of ?, which is expensive. Let ? proposed state (s?i , s?i ) and current state (si , s?i ) respectively. They differ only by a rank 1 matrix, ? = ? + ??i ?T , where ? = 1 (s?i ? si )? 2 . Therefore, to compute ?Ex we can take advantage i.e. ? i i 2 of the Sherman-Morrison formula ? ?1 = ??1 ? ???1 ?i (1 + ??Ti ??1 ?i )?1 ?Ti ??1 ? (1) and of a similar formula for the log det term  ? = log det ? + log 1 + ??Ti ??1 ?i . log det ? (2) Using (1) and (2) ?Ex can be written as T ?Ex = ?1 2 1 1 ?(x ? ?i ) ? log 1 + ??Ti ??1 ?i 2 1 + ??Ti ??1 ?i 2  ? ? X + (s?i ? si ) ? Wij sj + bi ? . j6=i The transition probabilities can thus be computed efficiently, and if a new state is accepted we update ? and ??1 using (1). 3.3 Model estimation Given a dataset D = {x(1) , . . . , x(N ) } of image patches, we want to learn the parameters ? = P (i) (?, (?i2 )i=1..m , W, b) that offer the best explanation of the data. Let p? (x) = N1 N i=1 ?(x ? x ) be the empirical distribution. Since in our model the variables a and s are latent, we use a variational expectation maximization algorithm [16] to optimize ?, which amounts to maximizing a lower bound on the log-likelihood derived using Jensen?s inequality XZ p(x, a, s | ?) da, log p(x | ?) ? q(a, s | x) log q(a, s | x) a s 3 where q(a, s | x) is a probability distribution. We restrict ourselves to the family of point mass distributions Q = {q(a, s | x) = ?(a ? a ?)?(s ? s?)}, and with this choice the lower bound on the log-likelihood of D can be written as L(?, q) = Ep? [log p(x, a ?, s? | ?)] (3) s?, (?i2 )i=1..m )] + Ep? [log p(? s| a| = Ep? [log p(x | a ?, ?)] + Ep? [log p(? | {z } | {z L? L? We perform coordinate ascent in the objective function L(?, q). } | {z LW,b W, b)] . } 3.3.1 Maximization with respect to q We want to solve maxq?Q L(?, q), which amounts to finding arg maxa,s log p(x, a, s) for every x ? D. This is computationally expensive since s is discrete. Hence, we introduce two phases in the algorithm. In the first phase, we infer in the usual sparse coding model where the prior over a Q the coefficients Q is factorial, i.e. p(a) = i p(ai ) ? i exp{??S(ai )}. In this setting, we have Y X 1 a ? = arg max p(x|a) e??S(ai ) = arg min 2 kx ? ?ak22 + ? S(ai ). (4) a a 2? i i With S(ai ) = |ai |, (4) is known as basis pursuit denoising (BPDN) whose solution has been shown to be such that many coefficient of a ? are exactly zero [17]. This allows us to recover the sparsity pattern s?, where s?i = 2.1[a?i 6= 0] ? 1 ?i. BPDN can be solved efficiently using a competitive algorithm [18]. Another possible choice is S(ai ) = 1[ai 6= 0] (p(ai ) is not a proper prior though), where (4) is combinatorial and can be solved approximately using orthogonal matching pursuits (OMP) [19]. After several iterations of coordinate ascent and convergence of ? using the above approximation, we enter the second phase of the algorithm and refine ? by using the GSM inference described in Section 3.1 where s? = arg max p(s|x) and a ? = E[a | s?, x]. 3.3.2 Maximization with respect to ? We want to solve max? L(?, q). Our choice of variational posterior allowed us to write the objective function as the sum of the three terms L? , L? and LW,b (3), and hence to decouple the variables ?, (?i2 )i=1..m and (W, b) of our optimization problem. Maximization of L? . Note that L? is the same objective function as in the standard sparse coding problem when the coefficients a are fixed. Let {? a(i) , s?(i) } be the coefficients and multipliers (i) corresponding to x . We have L? = ? N 1 X (i) Nn kx ? ?? a(i) k22 ? log 2??2 . 2 2? i=1 2 We add the constraint that k?i k2 ? 1 to avoid the spurious solution where the norm of the basis functions grows and the coefficients tend to 0. We solve this ?2 constrained least-square problem using the Lagrange dual as in [20]. Maximization of L? . The problem of estimating ?i2 is a standard variance estimation problem for a 0-mean Gaussian random variable, where we only consider the samples a?i such that the spin s?i is equal to 1, i.e. X 1 ?i2 = (a?i (k) )2 . (k) card{k : s?i = 1} k : s? (k) =1 i Maximization of LW,b . This problem is tantamount to estimating the parameters of a fully visible Boltzmann machine [21] which is a convex optimization problem. We do gradient ascent in LW,b , ?L ?L where the gradients are given by ?WW,b = ?Ep? [si sj ] + Ep [si sj ] and ?bW,b = ?Ep? [si ] + Ep [si ]. ij i We use Gibbs sampling to obtain estimates of Ep [si sj ] and Ep [si ]. 4 Note that since computing the parameters (? a, s?) of the variational posterior in phase 1 only depends on ?, we first perform several steps of coordinate ascent in (?, q) until ? has converged, which is the same as in the usual sparse coding algorithm. We then maximize L? and LW,b , and after that we enter the second phase of the algorithm. 4 Recovery of the model parameters Although the learning algorithm relies on a method where the family of variational posteriors q(a, s | x) is quite limited, we argue here that if data D = {x(1) , . . . , x(N ) } is being sampled according to parameters ?0 that obey certain conditions that we describe now, then our proposed learning algorithm is able to recover ?0 with good accuracy using phase 1 only. Let ? be the coherence parameter of the basis set which equals the maximum absolute inner product between two distinct basis functions. It has been shown that given a signal that is a sparse linear combination of p basis functions, BP and OMP will identify the optimal basis functions and their coefficients provided that p < 21 (? ?1 + 1), and the sparsest representation of the signal is unique [19]. Similar results can be derived when noise is present (? > 0) [22], but we restrict ourselves to the noiseless case for simplicity. Let ksk? be the number of spins that are up. We require (W0 , b0 ) to be such that P r ksk? < 12 (? ?1 + 1) ? 1, which can be enforced by imposing strong negative biases. A data point x(i) ? D thus has a high probability of yielding a unique sparse representation in the basis set ?. Provided that we have a good estimate of ? we can recover its sparse representation using OMP or BP, and therefore identify s(i) that was used to originally sample x(i) . That is we recover with high probability all the samples from the Ising model used to generate D, which allows us to recover (W0 , b0 ). We provide for illustration a simple example of model recovery where n P= 7 and m = 8. Let (e1 , . . . , e7 ) be an orthonormal basis in R7 . We let ?0 = [e1 , . . . e7 , ?17 i ei ]. We fix the biases b0 at ?1.2 such that the model is sufficiently sparse as shown by the histogram of ksk? in Figure 2, and the weights W0 are sampled according to a Gaussian distribution. The variance parameters ?0 are fixed to 1. We then generate synthetic data by sampling 100000 data from this model using ?0 . We then estimate ? from this synthetic data using the variational method described in Section 3 using OMP and phase 1 only. We found that the basis functions are recovered exactly (not shown), and that the parameters of the Ising model are recovered with high accuracy as shown in Figure 2. 4 14 x 10 b0 sparsity histogram W0 0 12 0.2 ?1 10 ?2 8 0.1 1 2 3 2 0 4 5 6 7 0 b 6 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 W 0.2 0.1 0 0 ?0.1 ?0.1 ?1 ?0.2 ?0.2 ?2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Figure 2: Recovery of the model. The histogram of ksk? is such that the model is sparse. The parameters (W, b) learned from synthetic data are close to the parameters (W0 , b0 ) from which this data was generated. 5 Results for natural images We build our training set by randomly selecting 16 ? 16 image patches from a standard set of 10 512 ? 512 whitened images as in [1]. It has been shown that change of luminance or contrast have little influence on the structure of natural scenes [23]. As our goal is to uncover this structure, we subtract from each patch its own mean and divide it by its standard deviation such that our dataset is contrast normalized (we do not consider the patches whose variance is below a small threshold). We fix the number of basis functions to 256. In the second phase of the algorithm we only update ?, and we have found that the basis functions do not change dramatically after the first phase. Figure 3 shows the learned parameters ?, ? and b. The basis functions resemble Gabor filters at a variety of orientations, positions and scales. We show the weights W in Figure 4 according to 5 ? ? 2 1 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 150 200 250 b 0 ?0.5 ?1 0 50 100 Figure 3: On the left is shown the entire set of basis functions ? learned on natural images. On the right are the learned variances (?i2 )i=1..m (top) and the biases b in the Ising model (bottom). the spatial properties (position, orientation, length) of the basis functions that are linked together by them. Each basis function is denoted by a bar that indicates its position, orientation, and length within the 16 ? 16 patch. ?i (a) 10 most positive weights ?j ?k Wij < 0 Wik > 0 (b) 10 most negative weights (c) Weights visualization (d) Association fields Figure 4: (a) (resp. (b)) shows the basis function pairs that share the strongest positive (resp. negative) weights ordered from left to right. Each subplot in (d) shows the association field for a basis function ?i whose position and orientation are denoted by the black bar. The horizontal connections (Wij )j6=i are displayed by a set of colored bars whose orientation and position denote those of the basis functions ?j to which they correspond, and the color denotes the connection strength (see (c)). We show a random selection of 36 association fields, see www.eecs.berkeley.edu/ garrigue/nips07.html for the whole set. We observe that the connections are mainly local and connect basis functions at a variety of orientations. The histogram of the weights (see Figure 5) shows a long positive tail corresponding to a bias toward facilitatory connections. We can see in Figure 4a,b that the 10 most ?positive? pairs have similar orientations, whereas the majority of the 10 most ?negative? pairs have dissimilar orientations. We compute for a basis function the average number of basis functions sharing with it a weight larger than 0.01 as a function of their orientation difference in four bins, which we refer to as the ?orientation profile? in Figure 5. The error bars are a standard deviation. The resulting orientation profile is consistent with what has been observed in physiological experiments [24, 25]. We also show in Figure 5 the tradeoff between the signal to noise ratio (SNR) of an image patch x and its reconstruction ?? a, and the ?0 norm of the representation k? ak0 . We consider a ? inferred using both the Laplacian prior and our proposed prior. We vary ? (see Equation (4)) and ? respectively, and average over 1000 patches to obtain the two tradeoff curves. We see that at similar SNR the representations inferred by our model are more sparse by about a factor of 2, which bodes well for compression. We have also compared our prior for tasks such as denoising and filling-in, and have found its performance to be similar to the factorial Laplacian prior even though it does not exploit the dependencies of the code. One possible explanation is that the greater sparsity of our inferred representations makes them less robust to noise. Thus we are currently investigating whether this 6 property may instead have advantages in the self-taught learning setting in improving classification performance. T (W,? ?) correlation coupling weights histogram 110 12 100 0.08 5000 0.06 4000 W ij 0.04 0.02 3000 0 2000 ?0.02 80 8 6 0.05 0.1 ?0.06 0 0.15 weights 0.2 |? Ti ? j | 0.3 ?2 0.4 60 50 2 40 0 0.1 70 4 ?0.04 0 Laplacian prior proposed prior 90 10 1000 0 ?0.05 tradeoff SNR?sparsity orientation profile 14 0.1 sparsity 6000 0.12 average # of connections 7000 ?? / 4 0 ?/4 ?/2 1 2 3 4 orientation bins 30 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 SNR Figure 5: Properties of the weight matrix W and comparison of the tradeoff curve SNR - ?0 norm between a Laplacian prior over the coefficients and our proposed prior. To access how much information is captured by the second-order statistics, we isolate a group (?i )i?? of 10 basis functions sharing strong weights. Given a collection of image patches that we sparsify using (4), we obtain a number of spins (? si )i?? from which we can estimate the empirical distribution pemp , the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution pIsing consistent with first and second order correlations, and the factorial distribution pf act (i.e. no horizontal connections) consistent with first order correlations. We can see in Figure 6 that the Ising model produces better estimates of the empirical distribution, and results in better coding efficiency since KL(pemp ||pIsing ) = .02 whereas KL(pemp ||pf act ) = .1. ?1 10 factorial model Ising model ?2 10 Empirical probaility all spins down ?3 10 all spins up 3 spins up ?4 10 ?5 10 ?5 10 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 ?1 10 10 Model probability Figure 6: Model validation for a group of 10 basis functions (right). The empirical probabilities of the 210 patterns of activation are plotted against the probabilities predicted by the Ising model (red), the factorial model (blue), and their own values (black). These patterns having exactly three spins up are circled. The prediction of the Ising model is noticably better than that of the factorial model. 6 Discussion In this paper, we proposed a new sparse coding model where we include pairwise coupling terms among the coefficients to capture their dependencies. We derived a new learning algorithm to adapt the parameters of the model given a data set of natural images, and we were able to discover the dependencies among the basis functions coefficients. We showed that the learned connection weights are consistent with physiological data. Furthermore, the representations inferred in our model have greater sparsity than when they are inferred using the Laplacian prior as in the standard sparse coding model. Note however that we have not found evidence that these horizontal connections facilitate contour integration, as they do not primarily connect colinear basis functions. Previous models in the literature simply assume these weights according to prior intuitions about the function of horizontal connections [12, 13]. It is of great interest to develop new models and unsupervised learning schemes possibly involving attention that will help us understand the computational principles underlying contour integration in the visual cortex. 7 References [1] B.A. Olshausen and D. J. Field. Emergence of simple-cell receptive field properties by learning a sparse code for natural images. Nature, 381(6583):607?609, June 1996. [2] R. Raina, A. Battle, H. Lee, B. Packer, and A.Y. Ng. Self-taught learning: Transfer learning from unlabeled data. Proceedings of the Twenty-fourth International Conference on Machine Learning, 2007. [3] G. Zetzsche and B. Wegmann. The atoms of vision: Cartesian or polar? J. Opt. Soc. Am., 16(7):1554? 1565, 1999. [4] P. Hoyer and A. Hyv?arinen. A multi-layer sparse coding network learns contour coding from natural images. Vision Research, 42:1593?1605, 2002. [5] M.J. Wainwright, E.P. Simoncelli, and A.S. Willsky. Random cascades on wavelet trees and their use in modeling and analyzing natural imagery. Applied and Computational Harmonic Analysis, 11(1):89?123, July 2001. [6] O. Schwartz, T. J. Sejnowski, and P. Dayan. Soft mixer assignment in a hierarchical generative model of natural scene statistics. Neural Comput, 18(11):2680?2718, November 2006. [7] S. Lyu and E. P. Simoncelli. Statistical modeling of images with fields of gaussian scale mixtures. In Advances in Neural Computation Systems (NIPS), Vancouver, Canada, 2006. [8] A. Hyv?arinen, P.O. Hoyer, J. Hurri, and M. Gutmann. Statistical models of images and early vision. Proceedings of the Int. Symposium on Adaptive Knowledge Representation and Reasoning (AKRR2005), Espoo, Finland, 2005. [9] Y. Karklin and M.S. Lewicki. A hierarchical bayesian model for learning non-linear statistical regularities in non-stationary natural signals. Neural Computation, 17(2):397?423, 2005. [10] B.A. Olshausen and K.J. Millman. Learning sparse codes with a mixture-of-gaussians prior. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 12, 2000. [11] D. Fitzpatrick. The functional organization of local circuits in visual cortex: insights from the study of tree shrew striate cortex. Cerebral Cortex, 6:329?41, 1996. [12] O. Ben-Shahar and S. Zucker. Geometrical computations explain projection patterns of long-range horizontal connections in visual cortex. Neural Comput, 16(3):445?476, March 2004. [13] L. Zhaoping. Border ownership from intracortical interactions in visual area v2. Neuron, 47:143?153, 2005. [14] E. Schneidman, M.J. Berry, R. Segev, and W. Bialek. Weak pairwise correlations imply strongly correlated network states in a neural population. Nature, April 2006. [15] G. Hinton, S. Osindero, and K. Bao. Learning causally linked markov random fields. Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Barbados, 2005. [16] M.I. Jordan, Z. Ghahramani, T. Jaakkola, and L.K. Saul. An introduction to variational methods for graphical models. Learning in Graphical Models, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999. [17] S.S. Chen, D.L. Donoho, and M.A. Saunders. Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit. SIAM Review, 43(1):129?159, 2001. [18] C.J. Rozell, D.H. Johnson, R.G. Baraniuk, and B.A. Olshausen. Neurally plausible sparse coding via competitive algorithms. In Proceedings of the Computational and Systems Neuroscience (Cosyne) meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, February 2007. [19] J.A. Tropp. Greed is good: algorithmic results for sparse approximation. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 50(10):2231?2242, 2004. [20] H. Lee, A. Battle, R. Raina, and A.Y. Ng. Efficient sparse coding algorithms. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 801?808. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [21] D.H. Ackley, G.E. Hinton, and T.J. Sejnowski. A learning algorithm for boltzmann machines. Cognitive Science, 9(1):147?169, 1985. [22] J.A. Tropp. Just relax: convex programming methods for identifying sparse signals in noise. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 52(3):1030?1051, 2006. [23] Z. Wang, A.C. Bovik, and E.P. Simoncelli. Structural approaches to image quality assessment. In Alan Bovik, editor, Handbook of Image and Video Processing, chapter 8.3, pages 961?974. Academic Press, May 2005. 2nd edition. [24] R. Malach, Y. Amir, M. Harel, and A. Grinvald. Relationship between intrinsic connections and functional architecture revealed by optical imaging and in vivo targeted biocytin injections in primate striate cortex. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 82:935?939, 1993. [25] W. Bosking, Y. Zhang, B. Schofield, and D. Fitzpatrick. Orientation selectivity and the arrangement of horizontal connections in the tree shrew striate cortex. J. Neuroscience, 17(6):2112?2127, 1997. 8
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One-Pass Boosting Zafer Barutcuoglu [email protected] Philip M. Long [email protected] Rocco A. Servedio [email protected] Abstract This paper studies boosting algorithms that make a single pass over a set of base classifiers. We first analyze a one-pass algorithm in the setting of boosting with diverse base classifiers. Our guarantee is the same as the best proved for any boosting algorithm, but our one-pass algorithm is much faster than previous approaches. We next exhibit a random source of examples for which a ?picky? variant of AdaBoost that skips poor base classifiers can outperform the standard AdaBoost algorithm, which uses every base classifier, by an exponential factor. Experiments with Reuters and synthetic data show that one-pass boosting can substantially improve on the accuracy of Naive Bayes, and that picky boosting can sometimes lead to a further improvement in accuracy. 1 Introduction Boosting algorithms use simple ?base classifiers? to build more complex, but more accurate, aggregate classifiers. The aggregate classifier typically makes its class predictions using a weighted vote over the predictions made by the base classifiers, which are usually chosen one at a time in rounds. When boosting is applied in practice, the base classifier at each round is usually optimized: typically, each example is assigned a weight that depends on how well it is handled by the previously chosen base classifiers, and the new base classifier is chosen to minimize the weighted training error. But sometimes this is not feasible; there may be a huge number of base classifiers with insufficient apparent structure among them to avoid simply trying all of them out to find out which is best. For example, there may be a base classifier for each word or k-mer. (Note that, due to named entities, the number of ?words? in some analyses can far exceed the number of words in any natural language.) In such situations, optimizing at each round may be prohibitively expensive. The analysis of AdaBoost, however, suggests that there could be hope in such cases. Recall that if AdaBoost is run with a sequence of base classifiers b1 , . . . , bn that achieve weighted error 12 ? ?1 , . . . , 12 ? ?n , then the training error of AdaBoost?s final output hypothesis is at most Pn exp(?2 t=1 ?t2 ). One could imagine applying AdaBoost without performing optimization: (a) fixing an order b1 , ..., bn of the base classifiers without looking at the data, (b) committing to use base classifier bt in round t, and (c) setting the weight with which bt votes as a function of its weighted training error using AdaBoost. (In a one-pass scenario, it seems sensible to use AdaBoost since, as indicated by the above bound, it can capitalize on the advantage over random guessing of every hypothesis.) The resulting algorithm uses essentially the same computational resources as Naive Bayes [2, 7], but benefits from taking some account of the dependence among base classifiers. Thus motivated, in this paper we study the performance of different boosting algorithms in a one-pass setting. Contributions. We begin by providing theoretical support for one-pass boosting using the ?diverse base classifiers? framework previously studied in [1, 6]. In this scenario there are n base classifiers. For an unknown subset G of k of the base classifiers, the events that the classifiers in G are correct on a random item are mutually independent. This formalizes the notion that these k base classifiers are not redundant. Each of these k classifiers is assumed to have error 21 ? ? under the initial distribution, and no assumption is made about the other n ? k base classifiers. In [1] it is shown that if Boost-by-Majority is applied with a weak learner that does optimization (i.e. always uses the ?best? of the n candidate base classifiers at each of ?(k) stages of boosting), the error rate of the combined hypothesis with respect to the underlying distribution is (roughly) at most exp(??(? 2 k)). In Section 2 we show that a one-pass variant of Boost-by-Majority achieves a similar bound with a single pass through the n base classifiers, reducing the computation time required by an ?(k) factor. We next show in Section 3 that when running AdaBoost using one pass, it can sometimes be advantageous to abstain from using base classifiers that are too weak. Intuitively, this is because using many weak base classifiers early on can cause the boosting algorithm to reweight the data in a way that obscures the value of a strong base classifier Pn that comes later. (Note that the quadratic dependence on ?t in the exponent of the exp(?2 t=1 ?t2 ) means that one good base classifier is more valuable than many poor ones.) In a bit more detail, suppose that base classifiers are considered in the order b1 , . . . , bn , where each of b1 , . . . , bn?1 has a ?small? advantage over random guessing under the initial distribution D and bn has a ?large? advantage under D. Using b1 , . . . , bn?1 for the first n ? 1 stages of AdaBoost can cause the distributions D2 , D3 , . . . to change from the initial D1 in such a way that when bn is finally considered, its advantage under Dn is markedly smaller than its advantage under D0 , causing AdaBoost to assign bn a small voting weight. In contrast, a ?picky? version of AdaBoost would pass up the opportunity to use b1 , . . . , bn?1 (since their advantages are too small) and thus be able to reap the full benefit of using bn under distribution D0 (since when bn is finally considered the distribution D is still D0 , since no earlier base classifiers have been used). Finally, Section 4 gives experimental results on Reuters and synthetic data. These show that one-pass boosting can lead to substantial improvement in accuracy over Naive Bayes while using a similar amount of computation, and that picky one-pass boosting can sometimes further improve accuracy. 2 Faster learning with diverse base classifiers We consider the framework of boosting in the presence of diverse base classifiers studied in [1]. Definition 1 (Diverse ?-good) Let D be a distribution over X ? {?1, 1}. We say that a set G of classifiers is diverse and ?-good with respect to D if (i) each classifier in G has advantage at least ? (i.e., error at most 21 ? ?) with respect to D, and (ii) the events that the classifiers in G are correct are mutually independent under D. We will analyze the Picky-One-Pass Boost-by-Majority (POPBM) algorithm, which we define as follows. It uses three parameters, ?, T and . 1. Choose a random ordering b1 , ..., bn of the base classifiers in H, and set i1 = 1. 2. For as many rounds t as it ? min{T, n}: (a) Define Dt as follows: for each example (x, y), i. Let rt (x, y) be the the number of previously chosen base classifiers h1 , . . . , ht?1 that are correct on (x, y);  1 T T ?t?1 ii. Let wt (x, y) = b T Tc?r ( 2 + ?)b 2 c?rt (x,y) ( 12 ? ?)d 2 e?t?1+rt (x,y) , let t (x,y) 2 Zt = E(x,y)?D (wt (x, y)), and let Dt (x, y) = wt (x,y)D(x,y) . Zt (b) Compare Zt to /T , and i. If Zt ? /T , then try bit , bit +1 , ... until you encounter a hypothesis bj with advantage at least ? with respect to Dt (and if you run out of base classifiers before this happens, then go to step 3). Set ht to be bj (i.e. return bj to the boosting algorithm) and set it+1 to j + 1 (i.e. the index of the next base classifier in the list). ii. If Zt < /T , then set ht to be the constant-1 hypothesis (i.e. return this constant hypothesis to the boosting algorithm) and set it+1 = it . 3. If t < T +1 (i.e. the algorithm ran out of base classifiers before selecting T of them), abort. Otherwise, output the final classifier f (x) = M aj(h1 (x), . . . , hT (x)). The idea behind step 2.b.ii is that if Zt is small, then Lemma 4 will show that it doesn?t much matter how good this weak hypothesis is, so we simply use a constant hypothesis. To simplify the exposition, we have assumed that POPBM can exactly determine quantities such as Zt and the accuracies of the weak hypotheses. This would provably be the case if D were concentrated on a moderate number of examples, e.g. uniform over a training set. With slight complications, a similar analysis can be performed when these quantities must be estimated. The following lemma from [1] shows that if the filtered distribution is not too different from the original distribution, then there is a good weak hypothesis relative to the original distribution. Lemma 2 ([1]) Suppose a set G of classifiers of size k is diverse and ?-good with respect to D. For 2 any probability distribution Q such that Q(x, y) ? ?3 e? k/2 D(x, y) for all (x, y) ? X ? {?1, 1}, there is a g ? G such that Pr(x,y)?Q (g(x) = y) ? 21 + ?4 . (1) The following simple extension of Lemma 2 shows that, given a stronger constraint on the filtered distribution, there are many good weak hypotheses available. Lemma 3 Suppose a set G of classifiers of size k is diverse and ?-good with respect to D. Fix any ` < k. For any probability distribution Q such that ? 2 Q(x, y) ? e? `/2 D(x, y) (2) 3 for all (x, y) ? X ? {?1, 1}, there are at least k ? ` + 1 members g of G such that (1) holds. Proof: Fix any distribution Q satisfying (2). Let g1 , ..., g` be an arbitrary collection of ` elements of G. Since the {g1 , ..., g` } and Q satisfy the requirements of Lemma 2 with k set to `, one of g1 , . . . , g` must satisfy (1); so any set of ` elements drawn from G contains an element that satisfies (1). This yields the lemma. We will use another lemma, implicit in Freund?s analysis [3], formulated as stated here in [1]. It formalizes two ideas: (a) if the weak learners perform well, then so will the strong learner; and (b) the performance of the weak learner is not important in rounds for which Z t is small. Lemma 4 Suppose that Boost-by-Majority is run with parameters ? and T , and generates classifiers h1 , ..., hT for which D1 (h1 (x) = y) = 21 + ?1 , . . . , DT (hT (x) = y) = 21 + ?T . Then, for a random element of D, a majority vote over h1 , ..., hT is incorrect with probability at most PT 2 e?2? T + t=1 (? ? ?t )Zt . Now we give our analysis. Theorem 5 Suppose the set H of base classifiers used by POPBM contains a subset G of k elements that is diverse and ?-good with respect to the initial distribution D, where ? is a constant (say 1/4). Then there is a setting of the parameters of POPBM so that, with probability 1 ? 2 ??(k) , it outputs a classifier with accuracy exp(??(? 2 k)) with respect to the original distribution D. Proof: We prove that ? = ?/4, T = k/64, and  = required. We will establish the following claim: 3k ?? 2 k/16 8? e is a setting of parameters as Claim 6 For the above parameter settings we have Pr[POPBM aborts in Step 3] = 2 ??(k) . Suppose for now that the claim holds, so that with high probability POPBM outputs a classifier. In case it does, let f be this output. Then since POPBM runs for a full T rounds, we may apply Lemma 4 which bounds the error rate of the Boost-by-Majority final classifier. The lemma gives us that D(f (x) 6= y) is at most e?2? 2 T + T P (? ? ?t )Zt = e?? 2 T /8 + P t:Zt < T t=1 ? e??(? 2 k) (? ? ?t )Zt + P t:Zt ? T + T (/T ) + 0 = e??(? 2 k) . (? ? ?t )Zt (Theorem 5) The final inequality holds since ? ? ?t ? 0 if Zt ? /T and ? ? ?t ? 1 if Zt < /T. Proof of Claim 6: In order for POPBM to abort, it must be the case that as the k base classifiers in G are encountered in sequence as the algorithm proceeds through h 1 , . . . , hn , more than 63k/64 of them are skipped in Step 2.b.i. We show this occurs with probability at most 2 ??(k) . For each j ? {1, ..., k}, let Xj be an indicator variable for the event that the jth member of G in the ordering b1 , . . . , bn is encountered during the boosting process and skipped, and for each P` ` ? {1, ..., k}, let S` = min{( j=1 Xj ) ? (3/4)`, k/8}. We claim that S1 , ..., Sk/8 is a supermartingale, i.e. that E[S`+1 |S1 , . . . , S` ] ? S` for all ` < k/8. If S` = k/8 or if the boosting process has terminated by the `th member of G, this is obvious. Suppose that S ` < k/8 and that the algorithm has not terminated yet. Let t be the round of boosting in which the `th member of G is encountered. The value wt (x, y) can be interpreted as a probability, and so we have that wt (x, y) ? 1. Consequently, we have that D(x, y) ? 2 ? 2 T Dt (x, y) ? ? D(x, y) ? = D(x, y) ? e? k/16 < D(x, y) ? e? k/8 . Zt  24 3 Now Lemma 3 implies that at least half of the classifiers in G have advantage at least ? w.r.t. D t . Since ` < k/4, it follows that at least k/4 of the remaining (at most k) classifiers in G that have not yet been seen have advantage at least ? w.r.t. Dt . Since the base classifiers were ordered randomly, any order over the remaining hypotheses is equally likely, and so also is any order over the remaining hypotheses from G. Thus, the probability that the next member of G to be encountered has advantage at least ? is at least 1/4, so the probability that it is skipped is at most 3/4. This completes the proof that S1 , ..., Sk/8 is a supermartingale. Since |S` ? S`?1 | ? 1, Azuma?s inequality for supermartingales implies that Pr(Sk/8 > k/64) ? e??(k) . This means that the probability that at least k/64 good elements were not skipped is at least 1 ? e?O(k) , which completes the proof. 3 For one-pass boosting, PickyAdaBoost can outperform AdaBoost AdaBoost is the most popular boosting algorithm. It is most often applied in conjunction with a weak learner that performs optimization, but it can be used with any weak learner. The analysis of AdaBoost might lead to the hope that it can profitably be applied for one-pass boosting. In this section, we compare AdaBoost and its picky variant on an artificial source especially designed to illustrate why the picky variant may be needed. AdaBoost. We briefly recall some basic facts about AdaBoost (see Figure 1). If we run AdaBoost for T stages with weak hypotheses h1 , . . . , hT , it constructs a final hypothesis T P H(x) = sgn(f (x)) where f (x) = ?t ht (x) (3) t=1 Here t = Pr(x,y)?Dt [ht (x) 6= y] where Dt is the t-th distribution constructed with ?t = ln by the algorithm (the first distribution D1 is just D, the initial distribution). We write ?t to denote 1 2 ? t , the advantage of the t-th weak hypothesis under distribution D t . Freund and Schapire [5] proved that if AdaBoost is run with an initial distribution D over a set of labeled examples, then the PT error rate of the final combined classifier H is at most exp(?2 i=1 ?t2 ) under D:   T P 2 Pr(x,y)?D [H(x) 6= y] ? exp ?2 ?t . (4) 1 2 1?t t . i=1 (We note that AdaBoost is usually described in the case in which D is uniform over a training set, but the algorithm and most of its analyses, including (4), go through in the greater generality presented here. The fact that the definition of ?t depends indirectly on an expectation evaluated according to D makes the case in which D is uniform over a sample most directly relevant to practice. However, it is easiest to describe our construction using this more general formulation of AdaBoost.) PickyAdaBoost. Now we define a ?picky? version of AdaBoost, which we call PickyAdaBoost. The PickyAdaBoost algorithm is initialized with a parameter ? > 0. Given a value ?, the PickyAdaBoost algorithm works like AdaBoost but with the following difference. Suppose that PickyAdaBoost is performing round t of boosting, the current distribution is some D 0 , and the current Given a source D of random examples. ? Initialize D1 = D. ? For each round t from 1 to T : ? Present Dt to a weak learner, and receive base classifier ht ; t ? Calculate error t = Pr(x,y)?Dt [ht (x) 6= y] and set ?t = 21 ln 1? t ; 0 ? Update the distribution: Define Dt+1 by setting Dt+1 (x, y) = 0 exp(??t yht (x))Dt (x, y) and normalizing Dt+1 to get the probability distribu0 tion Dt+1 = Dt+1 /Zt+1 ; P ? Return the final classification rule H(x) = sgn ( t ?t ht (x)) . Figure 1: Pseudo-code for AdaBoost (from [4]). base classifier ht being considered has advantage ? under D 0 , where |?| < ?. If this is the case then PickyAdaBoost abstains in that round and does not include h t into the combined hypothesis it is constructing. (Note that consequently the distribution for the next round of boosting will also be D0 .) On the other hand, if the current base classifier has advantage ? where |?| ? ?, then PickyAdaBoost proceeds to use the weak hypothesis just like AdaBoost, i.e. it adds ? t ht to the function f described in (3) and adjusts D 0 to obtain the next distribution. Note that we only require the magnitude of the advantage to be at least ?. Whether a given base classifier is used, or its negation is used, the effect that it has on the output of AdaBoost is the same  (briefly, because ln 1?  = ? ln 1? ). Consequently, the appropriate notion of a ?picky? version of AdaBoost is to require the magnitude of the advantage to be large. 3.1 The construction We consider a sequence of n + 1 base classifiers b1 , . . . , bn , bn+1 . For simplicity we suppose that the domain X is {?1, 1}n+1 and that the value of the i-th base classifier on an instance x ? {0, 1} n is simply bi (x) = xi . Now we define the distribution D over X ?{?1, 1}. A draw of (x, y) is obtained from D as follows: the bit y is chosen uniformly from {+1, ?1}. Each bit x1 , . . . , xn is chosen independently to equal y with probability 21 + ?, and the bit xn+1 is chosen to equal y if there exists an i, 1 ? i ? n, for which xi = y; if xi = ?y for all 1 ? i ? n then xn+1 is set to ?y. 3.2 Base classifiers in order b1 , . . . , bn , bn+1 Throughout Section 3.2 we will only consider parameter settings of ?, ?, n for which ? < ? ? 1 1 1 1 1 1 n n n 2 ? ( 2 ? ?) . Note that the inequality ? < 2 ? ( 2 ? ?) is equivalent to ( 2 ? ?) < 2 ? ?, which holds for all n ? 2. PickyAdaBoost. In the case where ? < ? ? 12 ? ( 12 ? ?)n , it is easy to analyze the error rate of PickyAdaBoost(?) after one pass through the base classifiers in the order b 1 , . . . , bn , bn+1 . Since each of b1 , . . . , bn has advantage exactly ? under D and bn+1 has advantage 12 ? ( 12 ? ?)n under D, PickyAdaBoost(?) will abstain in rounds 1, . . . , n and so its final hypothesis is sgn(b n+1 (?)), which is the same as bn+1 . It is clear that bn+1 is wrong only if each xi 6= y for i = 1, . . . , n, which occurs with probability ( 21 ? ?)n . We thus have: Lemma 7 For ? < ? ? 12 ? ( 12 ? ?)n , PickyAdaBoost(?) constructs a final hypothesis which has error rate precisely ( 21 ? ?)n under D. AdaBoost. Now let us analyze the error rate of AdaBoost after one pass through the base classifiers in the order b1 , . . . , bn+1 . We write Dt to denote the distribution that AdaBoost uses at the t-th stage of boosting (so D = D1 ). Recall that ?t is the advantage of bt under distribution Dt . The following claim is an easy consequence of the fact that given the value of y, the values of the base classifiers b1 , . . . , bn are all mutually independent: Claim 8 For each 1 ? t ? n we have that ?t = ?. It follows that the coefficients ?1 , . . . , ?n of b1 , . . . , bn are all equal to 1 2 ln 1/2+? 1/2?? = 1 2 ln 1+2? 1?2? . The next claim can be straightforwardly proved by induction on t: Claim 9 Let Dr denote the distribution constructed by AdaBoost after processing the base classifiers b1 , . . . , br?1 in that order. A draw of (x, y) from Dr is distributed as follows: ? The bit y is uniform random from {?1, +1}; ? Each bit x1 , . . . , xr?1 independently equals y with probability 21 , and each bit xr , . . . , xn independently equals y with probability 12 + ?; ? The bit xn+1 is set as described in Section 3.1, i.e. xn+1 = ?y if and only if x1 = ? ? ? = xn = ?y. Claim 9 immediately gives n+1 = Pr(x,y)?Dn+1 [bn+1 (x) 6= y] = 1/2n. It follows that ?n+1 = 1?n+1 1 1 n 2 ln n+1 = 2 ln(2 ? 1). Thus an explicit expression for the final hypothesis of AdaBoost after one pass over the n + 1 classifiers b1 , . . . , bn+1 is H(x) = sgn(f (x)), where    f (x) = 12 ln 1+2? (x1 + ? ? ? + xn ) + 21 (ln(2n ? 1))xn+1 . 1?2? Using the fact that H(x) 6= y if and only if yf (x) < 0, it is easy to establish the following: Claim 10 The classifier H(x) makes a mistake on (x, y) if and only if more than A of the variables n ?1) x1 , . . . , xn disagree with y, where A = n2 + ln(2 . 2 ln 1+2? 1?2? For (x, y) drawn from source D, we have that each of x1 , . . . , xn independently agrees with y with probability 21 + ?. Thus we have established the following: Lemma 11 Let B(n, p) denote a binomial random variable with parameters n, p (i.e. a draw from B(n, p) is obtained by summing n i.i.d. 0/1 random variables each of which has expectation p). Then the AdaBoost final hypothesis error rate is Pr[B(n, 12 ? ?) > A], which equals   n P n (1/2 ? ?)i (1/2 + ?)n?i . (5) i=bAc+1 i In terms of Lemma 11, Lemma 7 states that the PickyAdaBoost(?) final hypothesis has error Pr[B(n, 21 ? ?) ? n]. We thus have that if A < n ? 1 then AdaBoost?s final hypothesis has greater error than PickyAdaBoost. We now give a few concrete settings for ?, n with which PickyAdaBoost beats AdaBoost. First we observe that even in some simple cases the AdaBoost error rate (5) can be larger than the PickyAdaBoost error rate by a fairly large additive constant. Taking n = 3 and ? = 0.38, we find that the error rate of PickyAdaBoost(?) is ( 21 ? 0.38)3 = 0.001728, whereas the AdaBoost error rate is ( 12 ? 0.38)3 + 3( 12 ? 0.38)2 ? ( 12 + 0.38) = 0.03974. Next we observe that there can be a large multiplicative factor difference between the AdaBoost and Pn?bAc?1 n PickyAdaBoost error rates. We have that Pr[B(n, 1/2 ? ?) > A] equals i=0 i (1/2 ? ?)n?i (1/2 + ?)i . This can be lower bounded by   n?bAc?1 P n n Pr[B(n, 1/2 ? ?) > A] ? (1/2 ? ?) ; (6) i i=0 this bound is rough but good enough for our purposes. Viewing n as an asymptotic parameter and ? as a fixed constant, we have   ?n n P (6) ? (1/2 ? ?)n (7) i=0 i where ? = 1 2 ? ln 2 1+2? 2 ln 1?2? ? o(1). Using the bound P?n i=0 n i  = 2n?(H(?)?o(1)) , which holds for 0 < ? < 21 , we see that any setting of ? such that ? is bounded above zero by a constant gives an exponential gap between the error rate of PickyAdaBoost (which is (1/2??) n) and the lower bound on AdaBoost?s error provided by (7). As it happens any ? ? 0.17 yields ? > 0.01. We thus have Claim 12 For any fixed ? ? (0.17, 0.5) and any ? < ?, the final error rate of AdaBoost on the source D is 2?(n) times that of PickyAdaBoost(?). 3.3 Base classifiers in an arbitrary ordering The above results show that PickyAdaBoost can outperform AdaBoost if the base classifiers are considered in the particular order b1 , . . . , bn+1 . A more involved analysis (omitted because of space constraints) establishes a similar difference when the base classifiers are chosen in a random order: Proposition 13 Suppose that 0.3 < ? < ? < 0.5 and 0 < c < 1 are fixed constants independent of def n that satisfy Z(?) < c, where Z(?) = ln ln 4 (1?2?)2 1+2? (1?2?)3 . Suppose the base classifiers are listed in an order such that bn+1 occurs at position c ? n. Then the error rate of AdaBoost at least 2n(1?c) ? 1 = 2?(n) times greater than the error of PickyAdaBoost(?). For the case of randomly ordered base classifiers, we may view c as a real value that is uniformly distributed in [0, 1], and for any fixed constant 0.3 < ? < 0.5 there is a constant probability (at least 1 ? Z(?)) that AdaBoost has error rate 2?(n) times larger than PickyAdaBoost(?). This probability can be fairly large, e.g. for ? = 0.45 it is greater than 1/5. 4 Experiments We used Reuters data and synthetic data to examine the behavior of three algorithms: (i) Naive Bayes; (ii) one-pass Adaboost; and (iii) PickyAdaBoost. The Reuters data was downloaded from www.daviddlewis.com. We used the ModApte splits into training and test sets. We only used the text of each article, and the text was converted into lower case before analysis. We compared the boosting algorithms with multinomial Naive Bayes [7]. We used boosting with confidence-rated base classifiers [8], with a base classifier for each stem of length at most 5; analogously to the multinomial Naive Bayes, the confidence of a base classifier was taken to be the number of times its stem appeared in the text. (Schapire and Singer [8, Section 3.2] suggested, when the confidence of base classifiers cannot be bounded a priori, to choose each voting weight ?t in order to maximize the reduction in potential. We did this, using Newton?s method to do this optimization.) We averaged over 10 random permutations of the features. The results are compiled in Table 1. The one-pass boosting algorithms usually improve on the accuracy of Naive Bayes, while retaining similar simplicity and computational efficiency. PickyAdaBoost appears to usually improve somewhat on AdaBoost. Using a t-test at level 0.01, the W-L-T for PickyAdaBoost(0.1) against multinomial Naive Bayes is 5-1-4. We also experimented with synthetic data generated according to a distribution D defined as follows: to draw (x, y), begin by picking y ? {?1, +1} uniformly at random. For each of the k features x1 , . . . , xk in the diverse ?-good set G, set xi equal to y with probability 1/2 + ? (independently for each i). The remaining n ? k variables are influenced by a hidden variable z which is set independently to be equal to y with probability 4/5. The features x k+1 , . . . , xn are each set to be independently equal to z with probability p. So each such x j (j ? k + 1) agrees with y with probability (4/5) ? p + (1/5) ? (1 ? p). There were 10000 training examples and 10000 test examples. We tried n = 1000 and n = 10000. Results when n = 10000 are summarized in Table 2. The boosting algorithms predictably perform better than Naive Bayes, because Naive Bayes assigns too much weight to the correlated features. The picky boosting algorithm further ameliorates the effect of this correlation. Results for n = 1000 are omitted due to space constraints: these are qualitatively similar, with all algorithms performing better, and the differences between algorithms shrinking somewhat. Data NB earn acq money-fx crude grain trade interest wheat ship corn 0.042 0.036 0.043 0.026 0.038 0.068 0.026 0.022 0.013 0.027 Error rates PickyAdaBoost 0.001 0.01 0.1 0.023 0.020 0.018 0.027 0.094 0.065 0.071 0.153 0.042 0.041 0.041 0.048 0.031 0.027 0.026 0.040 0.021 0.023 0.019 0.018 0.028 0.028 0.026 0.029 0.032 0.029 0.032 0.035 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.017 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.013 OPAB NB 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 19288 Feature counts OPAB PickyAdaBoost 0.001 0.01 0.1 19288 2871 542 52 19288 3041 508 41 19288 2288 576 62 19288 2865 697 58 19288 2622 650 64 19288 2579 641 61 19288 2002 501 58 19288 2294 632 61 19288 2557 804 67 19288 2343 640 67 Table 1: Experimental results. On the left are error rates on the 3299 test examples for Reuters data sets. On the right are counts of the number of features used in the models. NB is the multinomial Naive Bayes, and OPAB is one-pass AdaBoost. Results are shown for three PickyAdaBoost thresholds: 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1. k p ? NB OPAB 20 20 20 50 50 50 100 100 100 0.85 0.9 0.95 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.1 PickyAdaBoost 0.07 0.1 0.16 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 Table 2: Test-set error rate for synthetic data. Each value is an average over 100 independent runs (random permutations of features). Where a result is omitted, the corresponding picky algorithm did not pick any base classifiers. References [1] S. Dasgupta and P. M. Long. Boosting with diverse base classifiers. COLT, 2003. [2] R. O. Duda and P. E. Hart. Pattern Classification and Scene Analysis. Wiley, 1973. [3] Y. Freund. Boosting a weak learning algorithm by majority. Inf. and Comput., 121(2):256?285, 1995. [4] Y. Freund and R. Schapire. Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In ICML, pages 148? 156, 1996. [5] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. JCSS, 55(1):119?139, 1997. [6] N. Littlestone. Redundant noisy attributes, attribute errors, and linear-threshold learning using Winnow. In COLT, pages 147?156, 1991. [7] A. Mccallum and K. Nigam. A comparison of event models for naive bayes text classification. In AAAI-98 Workshop on Learning for Text Categorization, 1998. [8] R. Schapire and Y. Singer. Improved boosting algorithms using confidence-rated predictions. Machine Learning, 37:297?336, 1999.
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Stability Bounds for Non-i.i.d. Processes Mehryar Mohri Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Google Research 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 Afshin Rostamizadeh Department of Computer Science Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences 251 Mercer Street New York, NY 10012 [email protected] [email protected] Abstract The notion of algorithmic stability has been used effectively in the past to derive tight generalization bounds. A key advantage of these bounds is that they are designed for specific learning algorithms, exploiting their particular properties. But, as in much of learning theory, existing stability analyses and bounds apply only in the scenario where the samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). In many machine learning applications, however, this assumption does not hold. The observations received by the learning algorithm often have some inherent temporal dependence, which is clear in system diagnosis or time series prediction problems. This paper studies the scenario where the observations are drawn from a stationary mixing sequence, which implies a dependence between observations that weaken over time. It proves novel stability-based generalization bounds that hold even with this more general setting. These bounds strictly generalize the bounds given in the i.i.d. case. It also illustrates their application in the case of several general classes of learning algorithms, including Support Vector Regression and Kernel Ridge Regression. 1 Introduction The notion of algorithmic stability has been used effectively in the past to derive tight generalization bounds [2?4,6]. A learning algorithm is stable when the hypotheses it outputs differ in a limited way when small changes are made to the training set. A key advantage of stability bounds is that they are tailored to specific learning algorithms, exploiting their particular properties. They do not depend on complexity measures such as the VC-dimension, covering numbers, or Rademacher complexity, which characterize a class of hypotheses, independently of any algorithm. But, as in much of learning theory, existing stability analyses and bounds apply only in the scenario where the samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). Note that the i.i.d. assumption is typically not tested or derived from a data analysis. In many machine learning applications this assumption does not hold. The observations received by the learning algorithm often have some inherent temporal dependence, which is clear in system diagnosis or time series prediction problems. A typical example of time series data is stock pricing, where clearly prices of different stocks on the same day or of the same stock on different days may be dependent. This paper studies the scenario where the observations are drawn from a stationary mixing sequence, a widely adopted assumption in the study of non-i.i.d. processes that implies a dependence between observations that weakens over time [8, 10, 16, 17]. Our proofs are also based on the independent block technique commonly used in such contexts [17] and a generalized version of McDiarmid?s inequality [7]. We prove novel stability-based generalization bounds that hold even with this more general setting. These bounds strictly generalize the bounds given in the i.i.d. case and apply to all stable learning algorithms thereby extending the usefulness of stability-bounds to non-i.i.d. scenar1 ios. It also illustrates their application to general classes of learning algorithms, including Support Vector Regression (SVR) [15] and Kernel Ridge Regression [13]. Algorithms such as support vector regression (SVR) [14, 15] have been used in the context of time series prediction in which the i.i.d. assumption does not hold, some with good experimental results [9, 12]. To our knowledge, the use of these algorithms in non-i.i.d. scenarios has not been supported by any theoretical analysis. The stability bounds we give for SVR and many other kernel regularization-based algorithms can thus be viewed as the first theoretical basis for their use in such scenarios. In Section 2, we will introduce the definitions for the non-i.i.d. problems we are considering and discuss the learning scenarios. Section 3 gives our main generalization bounds based on stability, including the full proof and analysis. In Section 4, we apply these bounds to general kernel regularization-based algorithms, including Support Vector Regression and Kernel Ridge Regression. 2 Preliminaries We first introduce some standard definitions for dependent observations in mixing theory [5] and then briefly discuss the learning scenarios in the non-i.i.d. case. 2.1 Non-i.i.d. Definitions Definition 1. A sequence of random variables Z = {Zt }? t=?? is said to be stationary if for any t and non-negative integers m and k, the random vectors (Zt , . . . , Zt+m ) and (Zt+k , . . . , Zt+m+k ) have the same distribution. Thus, the index t or time, does not affect the distribution of a variable Zt in a stationary sequence. This does not imply independence however. In particular, for i < j < k, Pr[Zj | Zi ] may not equal Pr[Zk | Zi ]. The following is a standard definition giving a measure of the dependence of the random variables Zt within a stationary sequence. There are several equivalent definitions of this quantity, we are adopting here that of [17]. ? Definition 2. Let Z = {Zt }t=?? be a stationary sequence of random variables. For any i, j ? Z ? {??, +?}, let ?ij denote the ?-algebra generated by the random variables Zk , i ? k ? j. Then, for any positive integer k, the ?-mixing and ?-mixing coefficients of the stochastic process Z are defined as i h ?(k) = sup En sup Pr[A | B] ? Pr[A] ?(k) = sup Pr[A | B] ? Pr[A] . (1) ? n B???? A??n+k n? A??n+k n B??? ? Z is said to be ?-mixing (?-mixing) if ?(k) ? 0 (resp. ?(k) ? 0) as k ? ?. It is said to be algebraically ?-mixing (algebraically ?-mixing) if there exist real numbers ?0 > 0 (resp. ?0 > 0) and r > 0 such that ?(k) ? ?0 /k r (resp. ?(k) ? ?0 /k r ) for all k, exponentially mixing if there exist real numbers ?0 (resp. ?0 > 0) and ?1 (resp. ?1 > 0) such that ?(k) ? ?0 exp(??1 k r ) (resp. ?(k) ? ?0 exp(??1 k r )) for all k. Both ?(k) and ?(k) measure the dependence of the events on those that occurred more than k units of time in the past. ?-mixing is a weaker assumption than ?-mixing. We will be using a concentration inequality that leads to simple bounds but that applies to ?-mixing processes only. However, the main proofs presented in this paper are given in the more general case of ?-mixing sequences. This is a standard assumption adopted in previous studies of learning in the presence of dependent observations [8, 10, 16, 17]. As pointed out in [16], ?-mixing seems to be ?just the right? assumption for carrying over several PAC-learning results to the case of weakly-dependent sample points. Several results have also been obtained in the more general context of ?-mixing but they seem to require the stronger condition of exponential mixing [11]. Mixing assumptions can be checked in some cases such as with Gaussian or Markov processes [10]. The mixing parameters can also be estimated in such cases. 2 Most previous studies use a technique originally introduced by [1] based on independent blocks of equal size [8, 10, 17]. This technique is particularly relevant when dealing with stationary ?-mixing. We will need a related but somewhat different technique since the blocks we consider may not have the same size. The following lemma is a special case of Corollary 2.7 from [17]. Lemma 1 (Yu [17], Corollary 2.7). Let ? ? 1 and suppose that function, with Qh is measurable  Q? ? si absolute value bounded by M , on a product probability space j=1 ?j , i=1 ?ri where ri ? si ? ri+1 for all i. Let Q be a probability measure on the product space with marginal measures Qi Q Qi+1 sj  i+1 si i+1 on (?i , ?ri ), and let Q be the marginal measure of Q on j=1 ?j , j=1 ?rj , i = 1, . . . , ??1. Q? Let ?(Q) = sup1?i???1 ?(ki ), where ki = ri+1 ? si , and P = i=1 Qi . Then, | E[h] ? E[h]| ? (? ? 1)M ?(Q). Q P (2) The lemma gives a measure of the difference between the distribution of ? blocks where the blocks are independent in one case and dependent in the other case. The distribution within each block is assumed to be the same in both cases. For a monotonically decreasing function ?, we have ?(Q) = ?(k ? ), where k ? = mini (ki ) is the smallest gap between blocks. 2.2 Learning Scenarios We consider the familiar supervised learning setting where the learning algorithm receives a sample of m labeled points S = (z1 , . . . , zm ) = ((x1 , y1 ), . . . , (xm , ym )) ? (X ? Y )m , where X is the input space and Y the set of labels (Y = R in the regression case), both assumed to be measurable. For a fixed learning algorithm, we denote by hS the hypothesis it returns when trained on the sample S. The error of a hypothesis on a pair z ? X ?Y is measured in terms of a cost function c : Y ?Y ? R+ . Thus, c(h(x), y) measures the error of a hypothesis h on a pair (x, y), c(h(x), y) = (h(x)?y)2 in the standard regression cases. We will use the shorthand c(h, z) := c(h(x), y) for a hypothesis h and z = (x, y) ? X ? Y and will assume that c is upper bounded by a constant M > 0. We denote b by R(h) the empirical error of a hypothesis h for a training sample S = (z1 , . . . , zm ): m 1 X b R(h) = c(h, zi ). (3) m i=1 In the standard machine learning scenario, the sample pairs z1 , . . . , zm are assumed to be i.i.d., a restrictive assumption that does not always hold in practice. We will consider here the more general case of dependent samples drawn from a stationary mixing sequence Z over X ? Y . As in the i.i.d. case, the objective of the learning algorithm is to select a hypothesis with small error over future samples. But, here, we must distinguish two versions of this problem. In the most general version, future samples depend on the training sample S and thus the generalization error or true error of the hypothesis hS trained on S must be measured by its expected error conditioned on the sample S: R(hS ) = E[c(hS , z) | S]. (4) z This is the most realistic setting in this context, which matches time series prediction problems. A somewhat less realistic version is one where the samples are dependent, but the test points are assumed to be independent of the training sample S. The generalization error of the hypothesis hS trained on S is then: R(hS ) = E[c(hS , z) | S] = E[c(hS , z)]. (5) z z This setting seems less natural since if samples are dependent, then future test points must also depend on the training points, even if that dependence is relatively weak due to the time interval after which test points are drawn. Nevertheless, it is this somewhat less realistic setting that has been studied by all previous machine learning studies that we are aware of [8, 10, 16, 17], even when examining specifically a time series prediction problem [10]. Thus, the bounds derived in these studies cannot be applied to the more general setting. We will consider instead the most general setting with the definition of the generalization error based on Eq. 4. Clearly, our analysis applies to the less general setting just discussed as well. 3 3 Non-i.i.d. Stability Bounds ? This section gives generalization bounds for ?-stable algorithms over a mixing stationary distribu1 tion. The first two sections present our main proofs which hold for ?-mixing stationary distributions. In the third section, we will be using a concentration inequality that applies to ?-mixing processes only. ? The condition of ?-stability is an algorithm-dependent property first introduced in [4] and [6]. It has been later used successfully by [2, 3] to show algorithm-specific stability bounds for i.i.d. samples. Roughly speaking, a learning algorithm is said to be stable if small changes to the training set do not produce large deviations in its output. The following gives the precise technical definition. ? Definition 3. A learning algorithm is said to be (uniformly) ?-stable if the hypotheses it returns for any two training samples S and S ? that differ by a single point satisfy ? |c(hS , z) ? c(hS ? , z)| ? ?. ?z ? X ? Y, (6) Many generalization error bounds rely on McDiarmid?s inequality. But this inequality requires the random variables to be i.i.d. and thus is not directly applicable in our scenario. Instead, we will use a theorem that extends McDiarmid?s inequality to general mixing distributions (Theorem 1, Section 3.3). To obtain a stability-based generalization bound, we will apply this theorem to ?(S) = R(hS ) ? b S ). To do so, we need to show, as with the standard McDiarmid?s inequality, that ? is a Lipschitz R(h function and, to make it useful, bound E[?]. The next two sections describe how we achieve both of these in this non-i.i.d. scenario. 3.1 Lipschitz Condition As discussed in Section 2.2, in the most general scenario, test points depend on the training sample. We first present a lemma that relates the expected value of the generalization error in that scenario and the same expectation in the scenario where the test point is independent of the training sample. e S ) = We denote by R(hS ) = Ez [c(hS , z)|S] the expectation in the dependent case and by R(h b Eze[c(hSb , ze)] that expectation when the test points are assumed independent of the training, with Sb denoting a sequence similar to S but with the last b points removed. Figure 1(a) illustrates that sequence. The block Sb is assumed to have exactly the same distribution as the corresponding block of the same size in S. ? Lemma 2. Assume that the learning algorithm is ?-stable and that the cost function c is bounded by M . Then, for any sample S of size m drawn from a ?-mixing stationary distribution and for any b ? {0, . . . , m}, the following holds: e S )]| ? b?? + ?(b)M. | E[R(hS )] ? E[R(h b (7) ? E[R(hS )] = E [c(hS , z)] ? E [c(hSb , z)] + b?. (8) S S ? Proof. The ?-stability of the learning algorithm implies that S S,z S,z The application of Lemma 1 yields e S [R(hS )] + b?? + ?(b)M. E[R(hS )] ? E [c(hSb , ze)] + b?? + ?(b)M = E b S S,e z (9) The other side of the inequality of the lemma can be shown following the same steps. We can now prove a Lipschitz bound for the function ?. 1 The standard variable used for the stability coefficient is ?. To avoid the confusion with the ?-mixing coefficient, we will use ?? instead. 4 Sb zi z b b zi b (a) i Si,b Si,b Si b (b) z b b (c) z b z b b (d) Figure 1: Illustration of the sequences derived from S that are considered in the proofs. ? Lemma 3. Let S = (z1 , z2 , . . . , zm ) and S i = (z1? , z2? , . . . , zm ) be two sequences drawn from a ?-mixing stationary process that differ only in point i ? [1, m], and let hS and hS i be the hypotheses ? returned by a ?-stable algorithm when trained on each of these samples. Then, for any i ? [1, m], the following inequality holds: M |?(S) ? ?(S i )| ? (b + 1)2?? + 2?(b)M + . m (10) Proof. To prove this inequality, we first bound the difference of the empirical errors as in [3], then the difference of the true errors. Bounding the difference of costs on agreeing points with ?? and the one that disagrees with M yields m b S ) ? R(h b S i )| = |R(h = 1 X |c(hS , zj ) ? c(hS i , zj? )| m j=1 (11) 1 X 1 M |c(hS , zj ) ? c(hS i , zj? )| + |c(hS , zi ) ? c(hS i , zi? )| ? ?? + . m m m j6=i ? Now, applying Lemma 2 to both generalization error terms and using ?-stability result in |R(hS ) ? R(hS i )| e S ) ? R(h e S i )| + 2b?? + 2?(b) ? |R(h b b (12) = E[c(hSb , ze) ? c(hSbi , ze)] + 2b?? + 2?(b)M ? ?? + 2b?? + 2?(b)M. z e The lemma?s statement is obtained by combining inequalities 11 and 12. 3.2 Bound on E[?] As mentioned earlier, to make the bound useful, we also need to bound ES [?(S)]. This is done by analyzing independent blocks using Lemma 1. ? Lemma 4. Let hS be the hypothesis returned by a ?-stable algorithm trained on a sample S drawn from a stationary ?-mixing distribution. Then, for all b ? [1, m], the following inequality holds: E[|?(S)|] ? (6b + 1)?? + 3?(b)M. S (13) b S )]. Let Si be the sequence S with the b points before and Proof. We first analyze the term ES [R(h after point zi removed. Figure 1(b) illustrates this definition. Si is thus made of three blocks. Let Sei denote a similar set of three blocks each with the same distribution as the corresponding block in Si , but such that the three blocks are independent. In particular, the middle block reduced to one point ? zei is independent of the two others. By the ?-stability of the algorithm, " # " # m m X X 1 1 ? b S )] = E E[R(h c(hS , zi ) ? E c(hSi , zi ) + 2b?. (14) S S m Si m i=1 i=1 Applying Lemma 1 to the first term of the right-hand side yields " # m 1 X b E[R(hS )] ? E c(hSei , zei ) + 2b?? + 2?(b)M. S ei m S i=1 5 (15) b S ) and R(hS ) will help us prove the Combining the independent block sequences associated to R(h lemma in a way similar to the i.i.d. case treated in [3]. Let Sb be defined as in the proof of Lemma 2. To deal with independent block sequences defined with respect to the same hypothesis, we will consider the sequence Si,b = Si ? Sb , which is illustrated by Figure 1(c). This can result in as many as four blocks. As before, we will consider a sequence Sei,b with a similar set of blocks each with the same distribution as the corresponding blocks in Si,b , but such that the blocks are independent. ? Since three blocks of at most b points are removed from each hypothesis, by the ?-stability of the learning algorithm, the following holds: " # m X 1 b S ) ? R(hS )] = E E[?(S)] = E[R(h c(hS , zi ) ? c(hS , z) (16) S S S,z m i=1 # " m 1 X ? c(hSi,b , zi ) ? c(hSi,b , z) + 6b?. (17) ? E Si,b ,z m i=1 Now, the application of Lemma 1 to the difference of two cost functions also bounded by M as in the right-hand side leads to " # m 1 X E[?(S)] ? E c(hSei,b , zei ) ? c(hSei,b , ze) + 6b?? + 3?(b)M. (18) S ei,b ,e S z m i=1 Since ze and zei are independent and the distribution is stationary, they have the same distribution and we can replace zei with ze in the empirical cost and write # " m 1 X c(hSei , ze) ? c(hSei,b , ze) + 6b?? + 3?(b)M ? ?? + 6b?? + 3?(b)M, (19) E[?(S)] ? E i,b S ei,b ,e S z m i=1 i where Sei,b is the sequence derived from Sei,b by replacing zei with ze. The last inequality holds by ? ?-stability of the learning algorithm. The other side of the inequality in the statement of the lemma can be shown following the same steps. 3.3 Main Results This section presents several theorems that constitute the main results of this paper. We will use the following theorem which extends McDiarmid?s inequality to ?-mixing distributions. Theorem 1 (Kontorovich and Ramanan [7], Thm. 1.1). Let ? : Z m ? R be a function defined over a countable space Z. If ? is l-Lipschitz with respect to the Hamming metric for some l > 0, then the following holds for all ? > 0:   ??2 Pr[|?(Z) ? E[?(Z)]| > ?] ? 2 exp , (20) Z 2ml2 ||?m ||2? where ||?m ||? ? 1 + 2 m X ?(k). k=1 ? Theorem 2 (General Non-i.i.d. Stability Bound). Let hS denote the hypothesis returned by a ?stable algorithm trained on a sample S drawn from a ?-mixing stationary distribution and let c be a measurable non-negative cost function upper bounded by M > 0, then for any b ? [0, m] and any ? > 0, the following generalization bound holds ? h? i ? b S )?? > ? + (6b + 1)?? + 6M ?(b) ? 2 exp Pr ?R(hS ) ? R(h S ! P ?2 ??2 (1 + 2 m i=1 ?(i)) . 2m((b + 1)2?? + 2M ?(b) + M/m)2 Proof. The theorem follows directly the application of Lemma 3 and Lemma 4 to Theorem 1. The theorem gives a general stability bound for ?-mixing stationary sequences. If we further assume that the sequence is algebraically ?-mixing, that is for all k, ?(k) = ?0 k ?r for some r > 1, then we can solve for the value of b to optimize the bound. 6 Theorem 3 (Non-i.i.d. Stability Bound for Algebraically Mixing Sequences). Let hS denote the ? hypothesis returned by a ?-stable algorithm trained on a sample S drawn from an algebraically ?-mixing stationary distribution, ?(k) = ?0 k ?r with r > 1 and let c be a measurable non-negative cost function upper bounded by M > 0, then for any ? > 0, the following generalization bound holds ? h? i ? b S )?? > ? + ?? + (r + 1)6M ?(b) ? 2 exp Pr ?R(hS ) ? R(h S where ?(b) = ?0  ?? r?0 M r/(r+1) ??2 (4 + 2/(r ? 1))?2 2m(2?? + (r + 1)2M ?(b) + M/m)2 ! , . Proof. For an algebraically mixing sequence, the value of b minimizing the bound of Theorem 2  ? ?1/(r+1)  ? r/(r+1) ? ? ? = rM ?(b), which gives b = satisfies ?b and ?(b) = ?0 . The r?0 M r?0 M following term can be bounded as  Z m m X X 1+2 ?(i) = 1 + 2 i?r ? 1 + 2 1 + i=1 1 i=1 m i?r di    m1?r ? 1 =1+2 1+ . 1?r (21) For r > 1, the exponent of m is negative, and so we can bound this last term by 3 + 2/(r ? 1). Plugging in this value and the minimizing value of b in the bound of Theorem 2 yields the statement of the theorem. In the case of a zero mixing coefficient (? = 0 and b = 0), the bounds of Theorem 2 and Theorem 3 coincide with the i.i.d. stability bound of [3]. In order for the right-hand side of these bounds to ? ? converge, we must have ?? = o(1/ m) and ?(b) = o(1/ m). For several general classes of algorithms, ?? ? O(1/m) [3]. In the case of algebraically mixing sequences with r > 1 assumed in ? (r/(r+1)) ? Theorem 3, ?? ? O(1/m) implies ?(b) = ?0 (?/(r? < O(1/ m). The next section 0 M )) illustrates the application of Theorem 3 to several general classes of algorithms. 4 Application We now present the application of our stability bounds to several algorithms in the case of an algebraically mixing sequence. Our bound applies to all algorithms based on the minimization of a regularized objective function based on the norm k ? kK in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where K is a positive definite symmetric kernel: m 1 X argmin c(h, zi ) + ?khk2K , (22) h?H m i=1 under some general conditions, since these algorithms are stable with ?? ? O(1/m) [3]. Two specific instances of these algorithms are SVR, for which the cost function is based on the ?-insensitive cost:  0 if |h(x) ? y| ? ?, c(h, z) = |h(x) ? y|? = (23) |h(x) ? y| ? ? otherwise, and Kernel Ridge Regression [13], for which c(h, z) = (h(z) ? y)2 . Corollary 1. Assume a bounded output Y = [0, B], for some B > 0, and assume that K(x, x) ? ? for all x for some ? > 0. Let hS denote the hypothesis returned by the algorithm when trained on a sample S drawn from an algebraically ?-mixing stationary distribution. Then, with probability at least 1 ? ?, the following generalization bounds hold for a. Support vector regression (SVR): 2 b S ) + 13? + 5 R(hS ) ? R(h 2?m b. Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR): 2 2 b S ) + 26? B + 5 R(hS ) ? R(h ?m 7 r !r 3?2 B 2 ln(1/?) +? ; ? ? m (24) r !r B 2 ln(1/?) 12?2 B 2 +? . ? ? m (25) p Proof. It has been shown in [3] that for SVR ?? ? ?2 /(2?m) and that M < ? B/? and for KRR, p ?? ? 2?2 B 2 /(?m) and M < ? B/?. Plugging in these values in the bound of Theorem 3 and using the lower bound on r, r > 1, yield the statement of the corollary. These bounds give, to the best of our knowledge, the first stability-based generalization bounds for SVR and KRR in a non-i.i.d. scenario. Similar bounds can be obtained for other families of algorithms such as maximum entropy discrimination, which can be shown to have comparable stability properties [3]. Our bounds have the same convergence behavior as those derived by [3] in the i.i.d. case. In fact, they ? differ only by some constants. As in the i.i.d. case, they are non-trivial when the condition ? ? 1/ m on the regularization parameter holds for all large values of m. It would be interesting to give a quantitative comparison of our bounds and the generalization bounds of [10] based on covering numbers for mixing stationary distributions, in the scenario where test points are independent of the training sample. In general, because the bounds of [10] are not algorithmdependent, one can expect tighter bounds using stability, provided that a tight bound is given on the stability coefficient. The comparison also depends on how fast the covering number grows with the sample size and trade-off parameters such as ?. For a fixed ?, the asymptotic behavior of our stability bounds for SVR and KRR is tight. 5 Conclusion Our stability bounds for mixing stationary sequences apply to large classes of algorithms, including SVR and KRR, extending to weakly dependent observations existing bounds in the i.i.d. case. Since they are algorithm-specific, these bounds can often be tighter than other generalization bounds. Weaker notions of stability might help further improve or refine them. References [1] S. N. Bernstein. Sur l?extension du th?eor`eme limite du calcul des probabilit?es aux sommes de quantit?es d?ependantes. Math. Ann., 97:1?59, 1927. [2] O. Bousquet and A. Elisseeff. Algorithmic stability and generalization performance. In NIPS 2000, 2001. [3] O. Bousquet and A. Elisseeff. Stability and generalization. JMLR, 2:499?526, 2002. [4] L. Devroye and T. Wagner. Distribution-free performance bounds for potential function rules. In Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on, volume 25, pages 601?604, 1979. [5] P. Doukhan. Mixing: Properties and Examples. Springer-Verlag, 1994. [6] M. Kearns and D. Ron. Algorithmic stability and sanity-check bounds for leave-one-out cross-validation. In Computational Learing Theory, pages 152?162, 1997. [7] L. Kontorovich and K. Ramanan. Concentration inequalities for dependent random variables via the martingale method, 2006. [8] A. Lozano, S. Kulkarni, and R. Schapire. Convergence and consistency of regularized boosting algorithms with stationary ?-mixing observations. In NIPS, 2006. [9] D. Mattera and S. Haykin. Support vector machines for dynamic reconstruction of a chaotic system. In Advances in kernel methods: support vector learning, pages 211?241. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1999. [10] R. Meir. Nonparametric time series prediction through adaptive model selection. Machine Learning, 39(1):5?34, 2000. [11] D. Modha and E. Masry. On the consistency in nonparametric estimation under mixing assumptions. IEEE Transactions of Information Theory, 44:117?133, 1998. [12] K.-R. M?uller, A. Smola, G. R?atsch, B. Sch?olkopf, J. K., and V. Vapnik. Predicting time series with support vector machines. In Proceedings of ICANN?97, LNCS, pages 999?1004. Springer, 1997. [13] C. Saunders, A. Gammerman, and V. Vovk. Ridge Regression Learning Algorithm in Dual Variables. In Proceedings of the ICML ?98, pages 515?521. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 1998. [14] B. Sch?olkopf and A. Smola. Learning with Kernels. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2002. [15] V. N. Vapnik. Statistical Learning Theory. Wiley-Interscience, New York, 1998. [16] M. Vidyasagar. Learning and Generalization: With Applications to Neural Networks. Springer, 2003. [17] B. Yu. Rates of convergence for empirical processes of stationary mixing sequences. The Annals of Probability, 22(1):94?116, Jan. 1994. 8
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Discrete Affine Wavelet Transforms For Analysis And Synthesis Of Feedforward Neural Networks Y. c. Pati and P. S. Krishnaprasad Systems Research Center and Department of Electrical Engineering University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 Abstract In this paper we show that discrete affine wavelet transforms can provide a tool for the analysis and synthesis of standard feedforward neural networks. It is shown that wavelet frames for L2(IR) can be constructed based upon sigmoids. The spatia-spectral localization property of wavelets can be exploited in defining the topology and determining the weights of a feedforward network. Training a network constructed using the synthesis procedure described here involves minimization of a convex cost functional and therefore avoids pitfalls inherent in standard backpropagation algorithms. Extension of these methods to L2(IRN) is also discussed. 1 INTRODUCTION Feedforward type neural network models constructed from empirical data have been found to display significant predictive power [6]. Mathematical justification in support of such predictive power may be drawn from various density and approximation theorems [1, 2, 5]. Typically this latter work doesn't take into account the spectral features apparent in the data. In the present paper, we note that the discrete affine wavelet transform provides a natural framework for the analysis and synthesis of feedforward networks. This new tool takes account of spatial and spectral localization properties present in the data. Throughout most of this paper we restrict discussion to networks designed to approximate mappings in L2(IR). Extensions to L2(IRN) are briefly discussed in Section 4 and will be further developed in [10]. 743 744 Pati and Krishnaprasad 2 WAVELETS AND FRAMES Consider a function f of one real variable as a static feedforward input-output map y= f(x) For simplicity assume f E L2(IR) the space of square integrable functions on the real line. Suppose a sequence {fn} C L2(IR) is given such that, for suitable constants A> 0, B < 00, (1) n for all f E L2(JR) . Such a sequence is said to be a frame. In particular orthonormal bases are frames. The above definition (1) also applies in the general Hilbert space setting with the appropriate inner product. Let T denote the bounded operator from L2(IR) to f2(Z), the space of square summable sequences, defined by (Tf) = {< f, fn > }neZ' In terms of the frame operator T, it is possible to give series expansions, f = L Tn < f, fn > n Lfn < f,fn >, (2) n where {Tn = (T-T)-l fn} is the dual frame. A particular class of frames leads to affine wavelet expansions. Consider a family of functions {tPmn} of the form, (3) where, the function 1j; satisfies appropriate admissibility conditions [3, 4] (e.g. J tP = 0). Then for suitable choices of a > 1, b > 0, the family {tPmn} is a frame for L2 (IR) . Hence there exists a convergent series representation, m n m n (4) The frame condition (1) guarantees that the operator (T-T) is boundedly invertible. Also since III - (2(A + B)-lT-T)1I < 1, (T-T)-l is given by a Neumann series [3]. Hence, given f, the expansion coefficients emn can be computed. The representation (4) of f above as a series in dilations and translations of a single function 1j; is called a wavelet expansion and the function tP is known as the analyzing or mother wavelet for the expansion. Discrete Affine Wavelet Transforms 3 FEEDFORWARD NETWORKS AND WAVELET EXPANSIONS Consider the input-output relationship of a feedforward network with one input, one output, and a single hidden layer, (5) n where an are the weights from the the input node to the hidden layer, bn are the biases on the hidden layer nodes, en are the weights from the hidden layer to the output layer and g defines the activation function of the hidden layer nodes. It is clear from (5) that the output of such a network is given in terms of dilations and translations of a single function g. 3.1 WAVELET ANALYSIS OF FEEDFORWARD NETWORKS Let g be a 'sigmoidal' function e.g. g(x) = l+!-z and let "p be defined as "p(x) = g(x + 2) + g(x - 2) - 2g(x). (6) Then it is possible (see [9] for details) to determine a translation stepsize band 1 - --y--- - - - , - - - - , - - 2 . 5 ,------,------,.----, 2 0.5 1.5 of--1 -0.5 0.5 -1~-~~-~---~--~ -4 -2 time o 2 (seconds) 4 o~-----'...c::...-----"J.-----' -4 -2 Log Frequency o 2 (Hz) Figure 1: Mother Wavelet "p (Left) And Magnitude Of Fourier Transform 1~12 a dilation stepsize a for which the family of functions "pmn as defined by (3) is a frame for L2(IR). Note that wavelet frames for L2(JR) can be constructed based upon other combinations ofsigmoids (e.g "p(x) = g(x+p)+g(x-p)-2g(x), p> 0) and that we use the mother wavelet of (6) only to illustrate some properties which are common to many such combinations. It follows from the above discussion that a feedforward network having one hidden layer with sigmoidal activation functions can represent any function in L2(IR) . In such a network (6) says that the sigmoidal nodes should be grouped together in sets of three so as to form the mother wavelet "p. 745 746 Pati and Krishnaprasad 3.2 WAVELETS AND SYNTHESIS OF FEEDFORWARD NETWORKS In defining the topology of a feedforward network we make use of the fact that the function "p is well concentrated in both spatial and spectral domains (see Figure 1). Dilating"p corresponds to shifting the spectral concentration and translating "p corresponds to shifting the spatial concentration. The synthesis procedure we describe here is based upon estimates of the spatial and spectral localization of the unknown mapping as determined from samples provided by the training data. Spatial locality of interest can easily be determined by examination of the training data or by introducing a priori assumptions as to the region over which it is desired to approximate the unknown mapping. Estimates of the appropriate spectral locality are also possible via preprocessing of the training data. Let Qmn and Qf respectively denote the spatia-spectral concentrations of the wavelet "pmn and of f. Thus Qmn and Qf are rectangular regions in the spatiaspectral plane (see Figure 2) which contain 'most' of the energy in the functions "pmn and f. More precise definitions of these concentrations can be found in [9]. Assuming that Qf has been estimated from the training data. We choose only those ro mu ?????? e , , , , , , ,, , ,, ,,,,,,, , , ,', , '", ,i, ,,,," , ,, , , , , ,, ??? ?????? -romu ~~~~~~~~~~ time Figure 2: Spatio-Spectral Concentrations Qmn And Qf Of Wavelets "pmn And Unknown Map f. elements of the frame {.,pmn} which contribute 'significantly' to the region Qf by defining an index set L f ~ Z2 in the following manner, where, J.L is the Lesbegue measure on lR? Since f is concentrated in Qf, by choosing L f as above, a 'good' approximation of f can be obtained in terms of the finite set of frame elements with indices in T f. That is f = L (m,n)eLJ f can be approximated by 1 where, cmn"pmn (7) Discrete Affine Wavelet Transforms for some coefficients {c mn } (m,n )eL J ? Having determined L f, a network is constructed to implement the appropriate wavelets tPmn. This is easily accomplished by choosing the number of sigmoidal hidden layer nodes to be M = 3 x ~L J and then grouping them together in sets of three to implement tP as in (6). Weights from the input to the hidden layer are set to provide the required dilations of tP and biases on the hidden layer nodes are set to provide the required translations. 3.2.1 Computation of Coefficients By the above construction, all weights in the network have been fixed except for the weights from the hidden layer to the output which specify the coefficients Cmn in (7). These coefficients can be computed using a simple gradient descent algorithm on the standard cost function of backpropagation. Since the cost function is convex in the remaining weights, only globally minimizing solutions exist. 3.2.2 Simulations Figure 3 shows the results of a simple simulation example. The solid line in Figure 3 indicates the original mapping f which was defined via the inverse Fourier transform of a randomly generated approximately bandlimited spectrum. Using a single dilation of tP which covered the frequency band sufficiently well and the required translations, the dashed curve shows the learned network approximation. 6 .2 o -.2 -.4 "'-L.~..L-L-~ 05 o t I I I I .1 I I I , L LI----L..L-lJ..-L..LL...I.....LL.LJ.--'--'" . 15 2 .25 3 "Time (seconds)" Figure 3: Simulation Using Network Synthesis Procedure. Solid Curve: Original Function, Dashed Curve: Network Reconstruction. 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS It has been demonstrated here that affine wavelet expansions provide a framework within which feedforward networks designed to approximate mappings in L2(lR) can be understood. In the case when the mapping is known, the expansion coefficients, and therefore all weights in the network can be computed. Hence the wavelet 747 748 Pati and Krishnaprasad transform method (and in general any transform method) not only gives us represent ability of certain classes of mappings by feedforward networks, but also tells us what the representation should be. Herein lies an essential difference between the wavelet methods discussed here and arguments based upon density in function spaces. In addition to providing arguments in support of the approximating power of feedforward networks, the wavelet framework also suggests one method of choosing network topology (in this case the number of hidden layer nodes) and reducing the training problem to a convex optimization problem. The synthesis technique suggested is based upon spatial and spectral localization which is provided by the wavelet transform. Most useful applications of feedforward networks involve the approximation of mappings with higher dimensional domains e.g. mappings in L2(JRN). Discrete affine wavelet transforms can be applied in higher dimensions as well (see e.g. [7] and [8]). Wavelet transforms in L2(IRN) can also be defined with respect to mother wavelets constructed from sigmoids combined in a manner which doesn't deviate from standard feedforward network architectures [10]. Figure 4 shows a mother wavelet for L2(IR2) constructed from sigmoids. In higher dimensions it is possible to use more than one analyzing wavelet [7], each having certain orientation selectivity in addition to spatial and spectral localization. If orientation selectivity is not essential, an isotropic wavelet such as that in Figure 4 can be used. Figure 4: Two-Dimensional Isotropic Wavelet From Sigmoids The wavelet formulation of this paper can also be used to generate an orthonormal basis of compactly supported wavelets within a standard feedforward network architecture. If the sigmoidal function 9 in Equation (6) is chosen as a discontinuous threshold function, the resulting wavelet 'IjJ is the Haar function which thereby results in the Haar transform. Dilations of the Haar function in powers of 2 (a = 2) together with integer translations (b = 1), generate an orthonormal basis for L2(IR) . Multidimensional Haar functions are defined similarly. The Haar transform is the earliest known example of a wavelet transform which however suffers due to the discontinuous nature of the mother wavelet. Discrete Affine Wavelet Transforms Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Professor Hans Feichtinger of the University of Vienna, and Professor John Benedetto of the University of Maryland for many valuable discussions. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation's Engineering Research Centers Program: NSFD CDR 8803012, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under contract AFOSR-88-0204 and by the Naval Research Laboratory. References [1] G. Cybenko. Approximations by Superpositions of a Sigmoidal Function. Technical Report CSRD 856, Center for Supercomputing Research and Development, University of Illinois, Urbana, February 1989. [2] G. Cybenko. Continuous Valued Neural Networks with Two Hidden Layers are Sufficient. Technical Report, Department of Computer Science, Tufts University, Medford, MA, March 1988. [3] I. Daubechies. The Wavelet Transform, Time-Frequency Localization and Signal Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 36(5):9611005,September 1990. [4] C. E. Heil and D. F. Walnut. Continuous and Discrete Wavelet Transforms. SIAM Review, 31(4):628-666, December 1989. [5] K. Hornik, M. Stinchcombe, and H. White. Multilayer Feedforward Networks are Universal Approximators. Neural Networks, 2:359-366, 1989. [6] A. Lapedes, and R. Farber. Nonlinear Signal Processing Using Neural Networks: Prediction and System Modeling. Technical Report LA- UR-87-2662, Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1987. [7] S. G. Mallat. Multifrequency Channel Decompositions ofImages and Wavelet Models. IEEE Transactions On Acoustics Speech and Signal Processing, 37(12):2091-2110, December 1989. [8] R. Murenzi, "Wavelet Transforms Associated To The n-Dimensional Euclidean Group With Dilations: Signals In More Than One Dimension," in Wavelets Time-Frequency Methods And Phase Space (J. M. Combes, A. Grossman and Ph. Tchamitchian, eds.), pp. 239-246, Springer-Verlag, 1989. [9] Y. C. Pati and P. S. Krishnaprasad, "Analysis and Synthesis of Feedforward Neural Networks Using Discrete Affine Wavelet Transforms," Technical Report SRC TR 90-44, University of Maryland, Systems Research Center, 1990. [10] Y. C. Pati and P. S. Krishnaprasad, In preparation. 749
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Message Passing for Max-weight Independent Set Sujay Sanghavi LIDS, MIT [email protected] Devavrat Shah Dept. of EECS, MIT [email protected] Alan Willsky Dept. of EECS, MIT [email protected] Abstract We investigate the use of message-passing algorithms for the problem of finding the max-weight independent set (MWIS) in a graph. First, we study the performance of loopy max-product belief propagation. We show that, if it converges, the quality of the estimate is closely related to the tightness of an LP relaxation of the MWIS problem. We use this relationship to obtain sufficient conditions for correctness of the estimate. We then develop a modification of max-product ? one that converges to an optimal solution of the dual of the MWIS problem. We also develop a simple iterative algorithm for estimating the max-weight independent set from this dual solution. We show that the MWIS estimate obtained using these two algorithms in conjunction is correct when the graph is bipartite and the MWIS is unique. Finally, we show that any problem of MAP estimation for probability distributions over finite domains can be reduced to an MWIS problem. We believe this reduction will yield new insights and algorithms for MAP estimation. 1 Introduction The max-weight independent set (MWIS) problem is the following: given a graph with positive weights on the nodes, find the heaviest set of mutually non-adjacent nodes. MWIS is a well studied combinatorial optimization problem that naturally arises in many applications. It is known to be NP-hard, and hard to approximate [6]. In this paper we investigate the use of message-passing algorithms, like loopy max-product belief propagation, as practical solutions for the MWIS problem. We now summarize our motivations for doing so, and then outline our contribution. Our primary motivation comes from applications. The MWIS problem arises naturally in many scenarios involving resource allocation in the presence of interference. It is often the case that large instances of the weighted independent set problem need to be (at least approximately) solved in a distributed manner using lightweight data structures. In Section 2.1 we describe one such application: scheduling channel access and transmissions in wireless networks. Message passing algorithms provide a promising alternative to current scheduling algorithms. Another, equally important, motivation is the potential for obtaining new insights into the performance of existing message-passing algorithms, especially on loopy graphs. Tantalizing connections have been established between such algorithms and more traditional approaches like linear programming (see [9] and references). The MWIS problem provides a rich, yet relatively tractable, first framework in which to investigate such connections. 1.1 Our contributions In Section 4 we construct a probability distribution whose MAP estimate corresponds to the MWIS of a given graph, and investigate the application of the loopy Max-product algorithm to this distritbuion. We demonstrate that there is an intimate relationship between the max-product fixed-points and the natural LP relaxation of the original independent set problem. We use this relationship to provide a certificate of correctness for the max-product fixed point in certain problem instances. 1 In Section 5 we develop two iterative message-passing algorithms. The first, obtained by a minor modification of max-product, calculates the optimal solution to the dual of the LP relaxation of the MWIS problem. The second algorithm uses this optimal dual to produce an estimate of the MWIS. This estimate is correct when the original graph is bipartite. In Section 3 we show that any problem of MAP estimation in which all the random variables can take a finite number of values (and the probability distribution is positive over the entire domain) can be reduced to a max-weight independent set problem. This implies that any algorithm for solving the independent set problem immediately yields an algorithm for MAP estimation. We believe this reduction will prove useful from both practical and analytical perspectives. 2 Max-weight Independent Set, and its LP Relaxation Consider a graph G = (V, E), with a set V of nodes and a set E of edges. Let N (i) = {j ? V : (i, j) ? E} be the neighbors of i ? V . Positive weights wi , i ? V are associated with each node. A subset of V will be represented by vector x = (xi ) ? {0, 1}|V | , where xi = 1 means i is in the subset xi = 0 means i is not in the subset. A subset x is called an independent set if no two nodes in the subset are connected by an edge: (xi , xj ) 6= (1, 1) for all (i, j) ? E. We are interested in finding a maximum weight independent set (MWIS) x? . This can be naturally posed as an integer program, denoted below by IP. The linear programing relaxation of IP is obtained by replacing the integrality constraints xi ? {0, 1} with the constraints xi ? 0. We will denote the corresponding linear program by LP. The dual of LP is denoted below by DUAL. n X IP : max s.t. xi + xj ? 1 for all (i, j) ? E, xi ? {0, 1}. DUAL : wi xi , i=1 s.t. min X X ?ij , (i,j)?E ?ij ? wi , for all i ? V, j?N (i) ?ij ? 0, for all (i, j) ? E. It is well-known that LP can be solved efficiently, and if it has an integral optimal solution then this solution is an MWIS of G. If this is the case, we say that there is no integrality gap between LP and IP or equivalently that the LP relaxation is tight. usIt is well known [3] that the LP relaxation is tight for bipartite graphs. More generally, for non-bipartite graphs, tightness will depend on the node weights. We will use the performance of LP as a benchmark with which to compare the performance of our message passing algorithms. The next lemma states the standard complimentary slackness conditions of linear programming, specialized for LP above, and for the case when there is no integrality gap. Lemma 2.1 When there is no integrality gap between IP and LP, there exists a pair of optimal n solutions P x = (xi ), ? = (?ij ) of LP and DUAL respectively, such that: (a) x ? {0, 1} , (b) xi j?N (i) ?ij ? wi = 0 for all i ? V , (c) (xi + xj ? 1) ?ij = 0, for all (i, j) ? E. 2.1 Sample Application: Scheduling in Wireless Networks We now briefly describe an important application that requires an efficient, distributed solution to the MWIS problem: transmision scheduling in wireless networks that lack a centralized infrastructure, and where nodes can only communicate with local neighbors (e.g. see [4]). Such networks are ubiquitous in the modern world: examples range from sensor networks that lack wired connections to the fusion center, and ad-hoc networks that can be quickly deployed in areas without coverage, to the 802.11 wi-fi networks that currently represent the most widely used method for wireless data access. Fundamentally, any two wireless nodes that transmit at the same time and over the same frequencies will interfere with each other, if they are located close by. Interference means that the intended receivers will not be able to decode the transmissions. Typically in a network only certain pairs 2 of nodes interfere. The scheduling problem is to decide which nodes should transmit at a given time over a given frequency, so that (a) there is no interference, and (b) nodes which have a large amount of data to send are given priority. In particular, it is well known that if each node is given a weight equal to the data it has to transmit, optimal network operation demands scheduling the set of nodes with highest total weight. If a ? conflict graph? is made, with an edge between every pair of interfering nodes, the scheduling problem is exactly the problem of finding the MWIS of the conflict graph. The lack of an infrastructure, the fact that nodes often have limited capabilities, and the local nature of communication, all necessitate a lightweight distributed algorithm for solving the MWIS problem. 3 MAP Estimation as an MWIS Problem In this section we show that any MAP estimation problem is equivalent to an MWIS problem on a suitably constructed graph with node weights. This construction is related to the ?overcomplete basis? representation [7]. Consider the following canonical MAP estimation problem: suppose we are given a distribution q(y) over vectors y = (y1 , . . . , yM ) of variables ym , each of which can take a finite value. Suppose also that q factors into a product of strictly positive functions, which we find convenient to denote in exponential form: ! X 1 Y 1 q(y) = exp (?? (y? )) = exp ?? (y? ) Z Z ??A ??A Here ? specifies the domain of the function ?? , and y? is the vector of those variables that are in the domain of ?? . The ??s also serve as an index for the functions. A is the set of functions. The MAP estimation problem is to find a maximizing assignment y? ? arg maxy q(y). e and assign weights to its nodes, such that the MAP estimation We now build an auxillary graph G, e There is one node in G e for each pair (?, y? ), problem above is equivalent to finding the MWIS of G. where y? is an assignment (i.e. a set of values for the variables) of domain ?. We will denote this e by ?(?, y? ). node of G 1 2 e between any two nodes ?(?1 , y? There is an edge in G ) and ?(?2 , y? ) if and only if there exists 1 2 a variable index m such that 1. m is in both domains, i.e. m ? ?1 and m ? ?2 , and 1 2 2. the corresponding variable assignments are different, i.e. ym 6= ym . In other words, we put an edge between all pairs of nodes that correspond to inconsistent assigne we now assign weights to the nodes. Let c > 0 be any number such that ments. Given this graph G, c + ?? (y? ) > 0 for all ? and y? . The existence of such a c follows from the fact that the set of assignments and domains is finite. Assign to each node ?(?, y? ) a weight of c + ?? (y? ). e are as above. (a) If y? is a MAP estimate of q, let ? ? = Lemma 3.1 Suppose q and G ? e that correspond to each domain being consistent {?(?, y? ) | ? ? A} be the set of nodes in G ? ? e e Then, for every with y . Then, ? is an MWIS of G. (b) Conversely, suppose ? ? is an MWIS of G. ? domain ?, there is exactly one node ?(?, y? ) included in ? ? . Further, the corresponding domain ? assignments{y? | ? ? A} are consistent, and the resulting overall vector y? is a MAP estimate of q. Example. Let y1 and y2 be binary variables with joint distribution 1 q(y1 , y2 ) = exp(?1 y1 + ?2 y2 + ?12 y1 y2 ) Z e is shown where the ? are any real numbers. The corresponding G to the right. Let c be any number such that c + ?1 , c + ?2 and c + ?12 e are: ?1 + c on are all greater than 0. The weights on the nodes in G node ?1? on the left, ?2 + c for node ?1? on the right, ?12 + c for the node ?11?, and c for all the other nodes. 3 00 0 01 0 10 1 11 1 4 Max-product for MWIS The classical max-product algorithm is a heuristic that can be used to find the MAP assignment of a probability distribution. Now, given an MWIS problem on G = (V, E), associate a binary random variable Xi with each i ? V and consider the following joint distribution: for x ? {0, 1}n , p (x) = 1 Z Y 1{xi +xj ?1} Y exp(wi xi ), (1) i?V (i,j)?E where Z is the normalization constant. In the above, 1 isP the standard indicator function: 1true = 1 and 1false = 0. It is easy to see that p(x) = Z1 exp ( i wi xi ) if x is an independent set, and p(x) = 0 otherwise. Thus, any MAP estimate arg maxx p(x) corresponds to a maximum weight independent set of G. The update equations for max-product can be derived in a standard and straightforward fashion from the probability distribution. We now describe the max-product algorithm as derived from p. At every iteration t each node i sends a message {mti?j (0), mti?j (1)} to each neighbor j ? N (i). Each node also maintains a belief {bti (0), bti (1)} vector. The message and belief updates, as well as the final output, are computed as follows. Max-product for MWIS (o) Initially, m0i?j (0) = m0j?i (1) = 1 for all (i, j) ? E. (i) The messages are updated as follows: ? ? ? Y ? Y t wi t mt+1 (0) = max m (0) , e m (1) , k?i k?i i?j ? ? k6=j,k?N (i) k6=j,k?N (i) Y mt+1 mtk?i (0). i?j (1) = k6=j,k?N (i) (ii) Nodes i ? V , compute their beliefs as follows: Y Y t+1 wi bt+1 (0) = mt+1 (0), b (1) = e mt+1 i i k?i k?i (1). k?N (i) k?N (i) (iii) Estimate max. wt. independent set x(bt+1 ) as follows: xi (bt+1 ) = 1{bt+1 (1)>bt+1 (0)} . i i i t (iv) Update t = t + 1; repeat from (i) till x(b ) converges and output the converged estimate. t For the purpose of analysis, we find it convenient to transform the messages be defining1 ?i?j =  t  mi?j (0) log mt (1) . Step (i) of max-product now becomes i?j t+1 ?i?j ? ? ? = max 0, ?wi ? ? X k6=j,k?N (i) ?? ? t ? , ?k?i ? (2) where we use the notation (x)+ = max{x, 0}. The estimation of step (iii) of max-product becomes: xi (? t+1 ) = 1{wi ?Pk?N (i) ?k?i >0} . This modification of max-product is often known as the ?minsum? algorithm, and is just a reformulation of the max-product. In the rest of the paper we refer to this as simply the max-product algorithm. 1 If the algorithm starts with all messages being strictly positive, the messages will remain strictly positive over any finite number of iterations. Thus taking logs is a valid operation. 4 4.1 Fixed Points of Max-Product When applied to general graphs, max product may either (a) not converge, (b) converge, and yield the correct answer, or (c) converge but yield an incorrect answer. Characterizing when each of the three situations can occur is a challenging and important task. One approach to this task has been to look directly at the fixed points, if any, of the iterative procedure [8]. Proposition 4.1 Let ? represent a fixed point of the algorithm, and let x(?) = (xi (?)) be the corresponding estimate for the independent set. Then, the following properties hold: (a) Let i be a node with estimate xi (?) = 1, and let j ? N (i) be any neighbor of i. Then, the messages on edge (i, j) satisfy ?i?j > ?j?i . Further, from this it can be deduced that x(?) represents an independent set in G. P (b) Let j be a node with xj (?) = 0, which by definition means that wj ? k?N (j) ?k?j ? 0. Suppose P now there exists a neighbor i ? N (j) whose estimate is xi (?) = 1. Then it has to be that wj ? k?N (j) ?k?j < 0, i.e. the inequality is strict. (c) For any edge (j1 , j2 ) ? E, if the estimates of the endpoints are xj1 (?) = xj2 (?) = 0, then it has to be that ?j1 ?j2 = ?j2 ?j1 . In addition, if there exists a neighbor i1 ? N (j1 ) of j1 whose estimate is xi1 (?) = 1, then it has to be that ?j1 ?j2 = ?j2 ?j1 = 0 (and similarly for a neighbor i2 of j2 ). The properties shown in Proposition 4.1 reveal striking similarities between the messages ? of fixed points of max-product, and the optimal ? that solves the dual linear program DUAL. In particular, suppose that ? is a fixed point at which the corresponding estimate x(?) is a maximal independent set: for every j whose estimate xj (?) = 0 there exists a neighbor i ? N (j) whose estimate is xi (?) = 1. The MWIS, for example, is also maximal (if not, one could add a node to the MWIS and obtain a higher weight). For a maximal estimate, it is easy to see that ? (xi (?) + xj (?) ? 1) ?i?j = 0 for all edges (i, j) ? E.   P ? xi (?) ?i?j + k?N (i)?j ?k?i ? wi = 0 for all i, j ? V At least semantically, these relations share a close resemblance to the complimentary slackness conditions of Lemma 2.1. In the following lemma we leverage this resemblance to derive a certificate of optimality of the max-product fixed point estimate for certain problems. Lemma 4.1 Let ? be a fixed point of max-product and x(?) the corresponding estimate of the independent set. Define G? = (V, E ? ) where E ? = E\{(i, j) ? E : ?i?j = ?j?i = 0} is the set of edges with at least one non-zero message. Then, if G? is acyclic, we have that : (a) x(?) is a solution to the MWIS for G, and (b) there is no integrality gap between LP and IP, i.e. x(?) is an optimal solution to LP. Thus the lack of cycles in G? provides a certificate of optimality for the estimate x(?). Max-product vs. LP relaxation. The following general question has been of great recent interest: which of the two, max-product and LP relaxation, is more powerful ? We now briefly investigate this question for MWIS. As presented below, we find that there are examples where one technique is better than the other. That is, neither technique clearly dominates the other. To understand whether correctness of max-product (e.g. Lemma 4.1) provides information about LP relaxation, we consider the simplest loopy graph: a cycle. For bipartite graph, we know that LP relaxation is tight, i.e. provides answer to MWIS. Hence, we consider odd cycle. The following result suggests that if max-product works then it must be that LP relaxation is tight (i.e. LP is no weaker than max-product for cycles). Corollary 4.1 Let G be an odd cycle, and ? a fixed point of Max-product. Then, if there exists at least one node i whose estimate xi (?) = 1, then there is no integrality gap between LP and IP. Next, we present two examples which help us conclude that neither max-product nor LP relaxation dominate the other. The following figures present graphs and the corresponding fixed points of max-product. In each graph, numbers represent node weights, and an arrow from i to j represents 5 a message value of ?i?j = 2. All other messages have ? are equal to 0. The boxed nodes indicate the ones for which the estimate xi (?) = 1. It is easy to verify that both represent max-product fixed points. 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 For the graph on the left, the max-product fixed point results in an incorrect estimate. However, the graph is bipartite, and hence LP will get the correct answer. In the graph on the right, there is an integrality gap between LP and IP: setting each xi = 21 yields an optimal value of 7.5, while the optimal solution to IP has value 6. However, the estimate at the fixed point of max-product is the correct MWIS. In both of these examples, the fixed points lie in the strict interiors of nontrivial regions of attraction: starting the iterative procedure from within these regions will result in convergence to the fixed point. These examples indicate that it may not be possible to resolve the question of relative strength of the two procedures based solely on an analysis of the fixed points of max-product. 5 A Convergent Message-passing Algorithm In this section we present our algorithm for finding the MWIS of a graph. It is based on modifying max-product by drawing upon a dual co-ordinate descent and barrier method. Specifically, the algorithm is as follows: (1) For small enough parameters ?, ?, run subroutine DESCENT(?, ?) (close to) convergence. This will produce output ??,? = (??,? ij )(i,j)?E . (2) For small enough parameter ?1 , use subroutine EST(??,? , ?1 ), to produce an estimate for the MWIS as the output of algorithm. Both of the subroutines, DESCENT, EST are iterative message-passing procedures. Before going into details of the subroutines, we state the main result about correctness and convergence of this algorithm. Theorem 5.1 The following properties hold for arbitrary graph G and weights: (a) For any choice of ?, ?, ?1 > 0, the algorithm always converges. (b) As ?, ? ? 0, ??,? ? ?? where ?? is an optimal solution of DUAL . Further, if G is bipartite and the MWIS is unique, then the following holds: (c) For small enough ?, ?, ?1 , the algorithm produces the MWIS as output. Subroutine: DESCENT 5.1 Consider the standard coordinate descent algorithm for DUAL: the variables are {?ij , (i, j) ? E}(with notation ?ij = ?ji ) and at each iteration t one edge (i, j) ? E is picked2 and update ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? X X t ? t ? ? ? ?t+1 = max 0, w ? ? , w ? ? (3) i j ik jk ij ? ? k?N (i),k6=j k?N (j),k6=i The ? on all the other edges remain unchanged from t to t + 1. Notice the similarity (at least syntactic) between (3) and update of max-product (min-sum) (2): essentially, the dual coordinate descent is a sequential bidirectional version of the max-product algorithm ! It is well known that the coordinate descent always coverges, in terms of cost for linear programs. Further, it converges to an optimal solution if P the constraints are of the product set type (see [2] for details). However, due to constraints of type j?N (i) ?ij ? wi in DUAL, the algorithm may not 2 A good policy for picking edges is round-robin or uniformly at random 6 converge to an optimal of DUAL. Therefore, a direct adaptation of max-product to mimic dual coordinate descent is not good enough. We use barrier (penalty) function based approach to overcome this difficulty. Consider the following convex optimization problem obtained from DUAL by adding a logarithmic barrier for constraint violations with ? ? 0 controlling penalty due to violation. ? ? ? ? ?? X X X CP(?) : min ? ?ij ? ? ? ? log ? ?ij ? wi ?? i?V (i,j)?E subject to j?N (i) ?ij ? 0, for all (i, j) ? E. The following is coordinate descent algorithm for CP(?). DESCENT(?, ?) (o) The parameters are variables ?ij , one for each edge (i, j) ? E. We will use notation that ?tij = ?tji . The vector ? is iteratively updated, with t denoting the iteration number. ? Initially, set t = 0 and ?0ij = max{wi , wj } for all (i, j) ? E. (i) In iteration t + 1, update parameters as follows: ? Pick an edge (i, j) ? E. This edge selection is done so that each edge is chosen infinitely often as t ? ? (for example, at each t choose an edge uniformly at random.) t ? For all (i? , j ? ) ? E, (i? , j ? ) 6= (i, j) do nothing, i.e. ?t+1 i? j ? = ?i? j ? . ? For edge (i, j), nodes i and j exchange messages as follows: ? ? ? ? X X t+1 t+1 ?i?j = ?wi ? ?tki ? , ?j?i = ?wj ? ?tk? j ? k6=j,k?N (i) ? Update ?t+1 ij as follows: with a = ?t+1 = ij k? 6=i,k? ?N (j) + t+1 ?i?j + t+1 ?j?i , and b = ! p a + b + 2? + (a ? b)2 + 4?2 . 2 (4) + (ii) Update t = t + 1 and repeat till algorithm converges within ? for each component. (iii) Output ?, the vector of paramters at convergence, Remark. The iterative step (4) can be rewritten as follows: for some ? ? [1, 2], ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? X X ?t+1 = ?? + max ???, ?wi ? ?tik ? , ? wj ? ?tkj ? , ij ? ? k?N (i)\j k?N (j)\i t+1 t+1 where ? depends on values of ?i?j , ?j?i . Thus the updates in DESCENT are obtained by small but important perturbation of dual coordinate descent for DUAL, and making it convergent. The output of DESCENT(?, ?), say ??,? ? ?? as ?, ? ? 0 where ?? is an optimal solution of DUAL. 5.2 Subroutine: EST DESCENT yields a good estimate of the optimal solution to DUAL, for small values of ? and ?. However, we are interested in the (integral) optimum of LP. In general, it is not possible to recover the solution of a linear program from a dual optimal solution. However, we show that such a recovery is possible through EST algorithm described below for the MWIS problem when G is bipartite with unique MWIS. This procedure is likely to extend for general G when LP relaxation is tight and LP has unique solution. EST(?, ?1 ). 7 (o) The algorithm iteratively estimates x = (xi ) given ?. P (i) Initially, color a node i gray and set xi = 0 if j?N (i) ?ij > wi . Color all other nodes P with green and leave their values unspecified. The condition j?N (i) ?ij > wi is checked P as whether j?N (i) ?ij ? wi + ?1 or not. (ii) Repeat the following steps (in any order) till no more changes can happen: ? if i is green and there exists a gray node j ? N (i) with ?ij > 0, then set xi = 1 and color it orange. The condition ?ij > 0 is checked as whether ?ij ? ?1 or not. ? if i is green and some orange node j ? N (i), then set xi = 0 and color it gray. (iii) If any node is green, say i, set xi = 1 and color it red. (iv) Produce the output x as an estimation. 6 Discussion We believe this paper opens several interesting directions for investigation. In general, the exact relationship between max-product and linear programming is not well understood. Their close similarity for the MWIS problem, along with the reduction of MAP estimation to an MWIS problem, suggests that the MWIS problem may provide a good first step in an investigation of this relationship. Also, our novel message-passing algorithm and the reduction of MAP estimation to an MWIS problem immediately yields a new message-passing algorithm for MAP estimation. It would be interesting to investigate the power of this algorithm on more general discrete estimation problems. References [1] M. Bayati, D. Shah and M. Sharma, ?Max Weight Matching via Max Product Belief Propagation,? IEEE ISIT, 2005. [2] D. Bertsekas, ?Non Linear Programming?, Athena Scientific. [3] M. Grtschel, L. Lovsz, and A. Schrijver, ?Polynomial algorithms for perfect graphs,? in C. Berge and V. Chvatal (eds.) Topics on Perfect Graphs Ann. Disc. Math. 21, North-Holland, Amsterdam(1984) 325-356. [4] K. Jung and D. Shah, ?Low Delay Scheduing in Wireless Networks,? IEEE ISIT, 2007. [5] C. Moallemi and B. Van Roy, ?Convergence of the Min-Sum Message Passing Algorithm for Quadratic Optimization,? Preprint, 2006 available at arXiv:cs/0603058 [6] Luca Trevisan, ?Inapproximability of combinatorial optimization problems,? Technical Report TR04-065, Electronic Colloquium on Computational Complexity, 2004. [7] M. Wainwright and M. Jordan, ?Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference,? UC Berkeley, Dept. of Statistics, Technical Report 649. September, 2003. [8] J. Yedidia, W. Freeman and Y. Weiss, ?Generalized Belief Propagation,? Mitsubishi Elect. Res. Lab., TR2000-26, 2000. [9] Y. Weiss, C. Yanover, T. Meltzer ?MAP Estimation, Linear Programming and Belief Propagation with Convex Free Energies? UAI 2007 8
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Iterative Non-linear Dimensionality Reduction by Manifold Sculpting Mike Gashler, Dan Ventura, and Tony Martinez ? Brigham Young University Provo, UT 84604 Abstract Many algorithms have been recently developed for reducing dimensionality by projecting data onto an intrinsic non-linear manifold. Unfortunately, existing algorithms often lose significant precision in this transformation. Manifold Sculpting is a new algorithm that iteratively reduces dimensionality by simulating surface tension in local neighborhoods. We present several experiments that show Manifold Sculpting yields more accurate results than existing algorithms with both generated and natural data-sets. Manifold Sculpting is also able to benefit from both prior dimensionality reduction efforts. 1 Introduction Dimensionality reduction is a two-step process: 1) Transform the data so that more information will survive the projection, and 2) project the data into fewer dimensions. The more relationships between data points that the transformation step is required to preserve, the less flexibility it will have to position the points in a manner that will cause information to survive the projection step. Due to this inverse relationship, dimensionality reduction algorithms must seek a balance that preserves information in the transformation without losing it in the projection. The key to finding the right balance is to identify where the majority of the information lies. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction (NLDR) algorithms seek this balance by assuming that the relationships between neighboring points contain more informational content than the relationships between distant points. Although non-linear transformations have more potential than do linear transformations to lose information in the structure of the data, they also have more potential to position the data to cause more information to survive the projection. In this process, NLDR algorithms expose patterns and structures of lower dimensionality (manifolds) that exist in the original data. NLDR algorithms, or manifold learning algorithms, have potential to make the high-level concepts embedded in multidimensional data accessible to both humans and machines. This paper introduces a new algorithm for manifold learning called Manifold Sculpting, which discovers manifolds through a process of progressive refinement. Experiments show that it yields more accurate results than other algorithms in many cases. Additionally, it can be used as a postprocessing step to enhance the transformation of other manifold learning algorithms. 2 Related Work Many algorithms have been developed for performing non-linear dimensionality reduction. Recent works include Isomap [1], which solves for an isometric embedding of data into fewer dimensions with an algebraic technique. Unfortunately, it is somewhat computationally expensive as it requires solving for the eigenvectors of a large dense matrix, and has difficulty with poorly sampled areas of ? [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 1 Figure 1: Comparison of several manifold learners on a Swiss Roll manifold. Color is used to indicate how points in the results correspond to points on the manifold. Isomap and L-Isomap have trouble with sampling holes. LLE has trouble with changes in sample density. the manifold. (See Figure 1.A.) Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) [2] is able to perform a similar computation using a sparse matrix by using a metric that measures only relationships between vectors in local neighborhoods. Unfortunately it produces distorted results when the sample density is non-uniform. (See Figure 1.B.) An improvement to the Isomap algorithm was later proposed that uses landmarks to reduce the amount of necessary computation [3]. (See Figure 1.C.) Many other NLDR algorithms have been proposed, including Kernel Principle Component Analysis [4], Laplacian Eigenmaps [5], Manifold Charting [6], Manifold Parzen Windows [7], Hessian LLE [8], and others [9, 10, 11]. Hessian LLE preserves the manifold structure better than the other algorithms but is, unfortunately, computationally expensive. (See Figure 1.D.). In contrast with these algorithms, Manifold Sculpting is robust to sampling issues and still produces very accurate results. This algorithm iteratively transforms data by balancing two opposing heuristics, one that scales information out of unwanted dimensions, and one that preserves local structure in the data. Experimental results show that this technique preserves information into fewer dimensions with more accuracy than existing manifold learning algorithms. (See Figure 1.E.) 3 The Algorithm An overview of the Manifold Sculpting algorithm is given in Figure 2a. Figure 2: ? and ? define the relationships that Manifold Sculpting attempts to preserve. 2 Step 1: Find the k nearest neighbors of each point. For each data point pi in P (where P is the set of all data points represented as vectors in Rn ), find the k-nearest neighbors Ni (such that nij ? Ni is the j th neighbor of point pi ). Step 2: Compute relationships between neighbors. For each j (where 0 < j ? k) compute the Euclidean distance ?ij between pi and each nij ? Ni . Also compute the angle ?ij formed by the two line segments (pi to nij ) and (nij to mij ), where mij is the most colinear neighbor of nij with pi . (See Figure 2b.) The most colinear neighbor is the neighbor point that forms the angle closest to ?. The values of ? and ? are the relationships that the algorithm will attempt to preserve during transformation. The global average distance between all the neighbors of all points ?ave is also computed. Step 3: Optionally preprocess the data. The data may optionally be preprocessed with the transformation step of Principle Component Analysis (PCA), or another efficient algorithm. Manifold Sculpting will work without this step; however, preprocessing can result in significantly faster convergence. To the extent that there is a linear component in the manifold, PCA will move the information in the data into as few dimensions as possible, thus leaving less work to be done in step 4 (which handles the non-linear component). This step is performed by computing the first |Dpres | principle components of the data (where Dpres is the set of dimensions that will be preserved in the projection), and rotating the dimensional axes to align with these principle components. (An efficient algorithm for computing principle components is presented in [12].) Step 4: Transform the data. The data is iteratively transformed until some stopping criterion has been met. One effective technique is to stop when the sum change of all points during the current iteration falls below a threshold. The best stopping criteria depend on the desired quality of results ? if precision is important, the algorithm may iterate longer; if speed is important it may stop earlier. Step 4a: Scale values. All the values in Dscal (The set of dimensions that will be eliminated by the projection) are scaled by a constant factor ?, where 0 < ? < 1 (? = 0.99 was used in this paper). Over time, the values in Dscal will converge to 0. When Dscal is dropped by the projection (step 5), there will be very little informational content left in these dimensions. Step 4b: Restore original relationships. For each pi ? P , the values in Dpres are adjusted to recover the relationships that are distorted by scaling. Intuitively, this step simulates tension on the manifold surface. A heuristic error value is used to evaluate the current relationships among data points relative to the original relationships:  2  2 ! k X ?ij ? ?ij0 ?ij ? ?ij0 wij pi = + (1) 2?ave ? j=0 where ?ij is the current distance to nij , ?ij0 is the original distance to nij measured in step 2, ?ij is the current angle, and ?ij0 is the original angle measured in step 2. The denominator values were chosen as normalizing factors because the value of the angle term can range from 0 to ?, and the value of the distance term will tend to have a mean of about ?ave with some variance in both directions. We adjust the values in Dpres for each point to minimize this heuristic error value. The order in which points are adjusted has some impact on the rate of convergence. Best results were obtained by employing a breadth-first neighborhood graph traversal from a randomly selected point. (A new starting point is randomly selected for each iteration.) Intuitively this may be analogous to the manner in which a person smoothes a crumpled piece of paper by starting at an arbitrary point and smoothing outward. To further speed convergence, higher weight, wij , is given to the component of the error contributed by neighbors that have already been adjusted in the current iteration. For all of our experiments, we use wij = 1 if ni has not yet been adjusted in this iteration, and wij = 10, if nij has been adjusted in this iteration. Unfortunately the equation for the true gradient of the error surface defined by this heuristic is complex, and is in O(|D|3 ). We therefore use the simple hill-climbing technique of adjusting in each dimension in the direction that yields improvement. Since the error surface is not necessarily convex, the algorithm may potentially converge to local minima. At least three factors, however, mitigate this risk: First, the PCA pre-processing step often tends to move the whole system to a state somewhat close to the global minimum. Even if a local 3 Figure 3: The mean squared error of four algorithms with a Swiss Roll manifold using a varying number of neighbors k. When k > 57, neighbor paths cut across the manifold. Isomap is more robust to this problem than other algorithms, but HLLE and Manifold Sculpting still yield better results. Results are shown on a logarithmic scale. minimum exists so close to the globally optimal state, it may have a sufficiently small error as to be acceptable. Second, every point has a unique error surface. Even if one point becomes temporarily stuck in a local minimum, its neighbors are likely to pull it out, or change the topology of its error surface when their values are adjusted. Very particular conditions are necessary for every point to simultaneously find a local minimum. Third, by gradually scaling the values in Dscaled (instead of directly setting them to 0), the system always remains in a state very close to the current globally optimal state. As long as it stays close to the current optimal state, it is unlikely for the error surface to change in a manner that permanently separates it from being able to reach the globally optimal state. (This is why all the dimensions need to be preserved in the PCA pre-processing step.) And perhaps most significantly, our experiments show that Manifold Sculpting generally tends to converge to very good results. Step 5: Project the data. At this point Dscal contains only values that are very close to zero. The data is projected by simply dropping these dimensions from the representation. 4 Empirical Results Figure 1 shows that Manifold Sculpting appears visually to produce results of higher quality than LLE and Isomap with the Swiss Roll manifold, a common visual test for manifold learning algorithms. Quantitative analysis shows that it also yields better results than HLLE. Since the actual structure of this manifold is known prior to using any manifold learner, we can use this prior information to quantitatively measure the accuracy of each algorithm. 4.1 Varying number of neighbors. We define a Swiss Roll in 3D space with n points (xi , yi , zi ) for each 0 ? i < n, such that xi = t sin(t), yi is a random number ?6 ? yi < 6, and zi = t cos(t), ?where t = 8i/n + 2. In 2D ?1 t2 +1 and vi = yi . manifold coordinates, the point is (ui , vi ), such that ui = sinh (t)+t 2 We created a Swiss Roll with 2000 data points and reduced the dimensionality to 2 with each of four algorithms. Next we tested how well these results align with the expected values by measuring the mean squared distance from each point to its expected value. (See Figure 3.) We rotated, scaled, and translated the values as required to obtain the minimum possible error measurement for each algorithm. These results are consistent with a qualitative assessment of Figure 1. Results are shown with a varying number of neighbors k. In this example, when k = 57, local neighborhoods begin to cut across the manifold. Isomap is more robust to this problem than other algorithms, but HLLE and Manifold Sculpting still yield better results. 4 Figure 4: The mean squared error of points from an S-Curve manifold for four algorithms with a varying number of data points. Manifold Sculpting shows a trend of increasing accuracy with an increasing number of points. This experiment was performed with 20 neighbors. Results are shown on a logarithmic scale. 4.2 Varying sample densities. A similar experiment was performed with an S-Curve manifold. We defined the S-Curve points in 3D space with n points (xi , yi , zi ) for each 0 ? i < n, such that xi = t, yi = sin(t), and zi is a random number 0 ? zi < 2, where t = (2.2i?0.1)? . In 2D manifold coordinates, the point is n Z t p  cos2 (w) + 1 dw and vi = yi . (ui , vi ), such that ui = 0 Figure 4 shows the mean squared error of the transformed points from their expected values using the same regression technique described for the experiment with the Swiss Roll problem. We varied the sampling density to show how this affects each algorithm. A trend can be observed in this data that as the number of sample points increases, the quality of results from Manifold Sculpting also increases. This trend does not appear in the results from other algorithms. One drawback to the Manifold Sculpting algorithm is that convergence may take longer when the value for k is too small. This experiment was also performed with 6 neighbors, but Manifold Sculpting did not always converge within a reasonable time when so few neighbors were used. The other three algorithms do not have this limitation, but the quality of their results still tend to be poor when very few neighbors are used. 4.3 Entwined spirals manifold. A test was also performed with an Entwined Spirals manifold. In this case, Isomap was able to produce better results than Manifold Sculpting (see Figure 5), even though Isomap yielded the worst accuracy in previous problems. This can be attributed to the nature of the Isomap algorithm. In cases where the manifold has an intrinsic dimensionality of exactly 1, a path from neighbor to neighbor provides an accurate estimate of isolinear distance. Thus an algorithm that seeks to globally optimize isolinear distances will be less susceptible to the noise from cutting across local corners. When the intrinsic dimensionality is higher than 1, however, paths that follow from neighbor to neighbor produce a zig-zag pattern that introduces excessive noise into the isolinear distance measurement. In these cases, preserving local neighborhood relationships with precision yields better overall results than globally optimizing an error-prone metric. Consistent with this intuition, Isomap is the closest competitor to Manifold Sculpting in other experiments that involved a manifold with a single intrinsic dimension, and yields the poorest results of the four algorithms when the intrinsic dimensionality is larger than one. 5 Figure 5: Mean squared error for four algorithms with an Entwined Spirals manifold. 4.4 Image-based manifolds. The accuracy of Manifold Sculpting is not limited to generated manifolds in three dimensional space. Unfortunately, the manifold structure represented by most real-world problems is not known a priori. The accuracy of a manifold learner, however, can still be estimated when the problem involves a video sequence by simply counting the percentage of frames that are sorted into the same order as the video sequence. Figure 6 shows several frames from a video sequence of a person turning his head while gradually smiling. Each image was encoded as a vector of 1, 634 pixel intensity values. This data was then reduced to a single dimension. (Results are shown on three separate lines in order to fit the page.) The one preserved dimension could then characterize each frame according to the high-level concepts that were previously encoded in many dimensions. The dot below each image corresponds to the single-dimensional value in the preserved dimension for that image. In this case, the ordering of every frame was consistent with the video sequence. 4.5 Controlled manifold topologies. Figure 7 shows a comparison of results obtained from a manifold generated by translating an image over a background of random noise. Nine of the 400 input images are shown as a sample, and results with each algorithm are shown as a mesh. Each vertex is placed at a position corresponding to the two values obtained from one of the 400 images. For increased visibility of the inherent structure, the vertexes are connected with their nearest input space neighbors. Because two variables (horizontal position and vertical position) were used to generate the dataset, this data creates a manifold with an intrinsic dimensionality of two in a space with an extrinsic dimensionality of 2,401 (the total number of pixels in each image). Because the background is random, the average distance between neighboring points in the input space is uniform, so the ideal result is known to be a square. The distortions produced by Manifold Sculpting tend to be local in nature, while the distortions produced by other algorithms tend to be more global. Note that the points are spread nearly uniformly across the manifold in the results from Manifold Sculpting. This explains why the results from Manifold Sculpting tend to fit the ideal results with much lower total error (as shown in Figure 6: Images of a face reduced by Manifold Sculpting into a single dimension. The values are are shown here on three wrapped lines in order to fit the page. The original image is shown above each point. 6 Figure 7: A comparison of results with a manifold generated by translating an image over a background of noise. Manifold Sculpting tends to produce less global distortion, while other algorithms tend to produce less local distortion. Each point represents an image. This experiment was done in each case with 8 neighbors. (LLE fails to yield results with these parameters, but [13] reports a similar experiment in which LLE produces results. In that case, as with Isomap and HLLE as shown here, distortion is clearly visible near the edges.) Figure 3 and Figure 4). Perhaps more significantly, it also tends to keep the intrinsic variables in the dataset more linearly separable. This is particularly important when the dimensionality reduction is used as a pre-processing step for a supervised learning algorithm. We created four video sequences designed to show various types of manifold topologies and measured the accuracy of each manifold learning algorithm. These results (and sample frames from each video) are shown in Figure 8. The first video shows a rotating stuffed animal. Since the background pixels remain nearly constant while the pixels on the rotating object change in value, the manifold corresponding to the vector encoding of this video will contain both smooth and changing areas. The second video was made by moving a camera down a hallway. This produces a manifold with a continuous range of variability, since pixels near the center of the frame change slowly while pixels near the edges change rapidly. The third video pans across a scene. Unlike the video of the rotating stuffed animal, there are no background pixels that remain constant. The last video shows another rotating stuffed animal. Unlike the first video, however, the high-contrast texture of the object used in this video results in a topology with much more variation. As the black spots shift across the pixels, a manifold is created that swings wildly in the respective dimensions. Due to the large hills and valleys in the topology of this manifold, the nearest neighbors of a frame frequently create paths that cut across the manifold. In all four cases, Manifold Sculpting produced results competitive with Isomap, which does particularly well with manifolds that have an intrinsic dimensionality of Figure 8: Four video sequences were created with varying properties in the corresponding manfolds. Dimensionality was reduced to one with each of four manifold learning algorithms. The percentage of frames that were correctly ordered by each algorithm is shown. 7 one, but Manifold Sculpting is not limited by the intrinsic dimensionality as shown in the previous experiments. 5 Discussion The experiments tested in this paper show that Manifold Sculpting yields more accurate results than other well-known manifold learning algorithms. Manifold Sculpting is robust to holes in the sampled area. Manifold Sculpting is more accurate than other algorithms when the manifold is sparsely sampled, and the gap is even wider with higher sampling densities. Manifold Sculpting has difficulty when the selected number of neighbors is too small but consistently outperforms other algorithms when it is larger. Due to the iterative nature of Manifold Sculpting, it?s difficult to produce a valid complexity analysis. Consequently, we measured the scalability of Manifold Sculpting empirically and compared it with that of HLLE, L-Isomap, and LLE. Due to space constraints these results are not included here, but they indicate that Manifold Sculpting scales better than the other algorithms when when the number of data points is much larger than the number of input dimensions. Manifold Sculpting benefits significantly when the data is pre-processed with the transformation step of PCA. The transformation step of any algorithm may be used in place of this step. Current research seeks to identify which algorithms work best with Manifold Sculpting to efficiently produce high quality results. (An implementation of Manifold Sculpting is included at http://waffles.sourceforge.net.) References [1] Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Vin de Silva, and John C. Langford. A global geometric framework for nonlinear dimensionality reduction. Science, 290:2319?2323, 2000. [2] Sam T. Roweis and Lawrence K. Saul. Nonlinear dimensionality reduction by locally linear embedding. Science, 290:2323?2326, 2000. [3] Vin de Silva and Joshua B. Tenenbaum. Global versus local methods in nonlinear dimensionality reduction. In NIPS, pages 705?712, 2002. [4] Bernhard Sch?olkopf, Alexander J. Smola, and Klaus-Robert M?uller. Kernel principal component analysis. Advances in kernel methods: support vector learning, pages 327?352, 1999. [5] Mikhail Belkin and Partha Niyogi. Laplacian eigenmaps and spectral techniques for embedding and clustering. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 14, pages 585? 591, 2001. [6] Matthew Brand. Charting a manifold. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 15, pages 961?968. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2003. [7] Pascal Vincent and Yoshua Bengio. Manifold parzen windows. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 15, pages 825?832. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2003. [8] D. Donoho and C. Grimes. Hessian eigenmaps: locally linear embedding techniques for high dimensional data. Proc. of National Academy of Sciences, 100(10):5591?5596, 2003. [9] Yoshua Bengio and Martin Monperrus. Non-local manifold tangent learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 17, pages 129?136. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2005. [10] Elizaveta Levina and Peter J. Bickel. Maximum likelihood estimation of intrinsic dimension. In NIPS, 2004. [11] Zhenyue Zhang and Hongyuan Zha. A domain decomposition method for fast manifold learning. In Y. Weiss, B. Sch?olkopf, and J. Platt, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 18. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [12] Sam Roweis. Em algorithms for PCA and SPCA. In Michael I. Jordan, Michael J. Kearns, and Sara A. Solla, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 10, 1998. [13] Lawrence K. Saul and Sam T. Roweis. Think globally, fit locally: Unsupervised learning of low dimensional manifolds. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:119?155, 2003. 8
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Comparison of objective functions for estimating linear-nonlinear models Tatyana O. Sharpee Computational Neurobiology Laboratory, the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, CA 92037 [email protected] Abstract This paper compares a family of methods for characterizing neural feature selectivity with natural stimuli in the framework of the linear-nonlinear model. In this model, the neural firing rate is a nonlinear function of a small number of relevant stimulus components. The relevant stimulus dimensions can be found by maximizing one of the family of objective functions, R?enyi divergences of different orders [1, 2]. We show that maximizing one of them, R?enyi divergence of order 2, is equivalent to least-square fitting of the linear-nonlinear model to neural data. Next, we derive reconstruction errors in relevant dimensions found by maximizing R?enyi divergences of arbitrary order in the asymptotic limit of large spike numbers. We find that the smallest errors are obtained with R?enyi divergence of order 1, also known as Kullback-Leibler divergence. This corresponds to finding relevant dimensions by maximizing mutual information [2]. We numerically test how these optimization schemes perform in the regime of low signal-to-noise ratio (small number of spikes and increasing neural noise) for model visual neurons. We find that optimization schemes based on either least square fitting or information maximization perform well even when number of spikes is small. Information maximization provides slightly, but significantly, better reconstructions than least square fitting. This makes the problem of finding relevant dimensions, together with the problem of lossy compression [3], one of examples where informationtheoretic measures are no more data limited than those derived from least squares. 1 Introduction The application of system identification techniques to the study of sensory neural systems has a long history. One family of approaches employs the dimensionality reduction idea: while inputs are typically very high-dimensional, not all dimensions are equally important for eliciting a neural response [4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. The aim is then to find a small set of dimensions {? e1 , e?2 , . . .} in the stimulus space that are relevant for neural response, without imposing, however, a particular functional dependence between the neural response and the stimulus components {s1 , s2 , . . .} along the relevant dimensions: P (spike|s) = P (spike)g(s1 , s2 , ..., sK ), (1) If the inputs are Gaussian, the last requirement is not important, because relevant dimensions can be found without knowing a correct functional form for the nonlinear function g in Eq. (1). However, for non-Gaussian inputs a wrong assumption for the form of the nonlinearity g will lead to systematic errors in the estimate of the relevant dimensions themselves [9, 5, 1, 2]. The larger the deviations of the stimulus distribution from a Gaussian, the larger will be the effect of errors in the presumed form of the nonlinearity function g on estimating the relevant dimensions. Because inputs derived from a natural environment, either visual or auditory, have been shown to be strongly non-Gaussian [10], we will concentrate here on system identification methods suitable for either Gaussian or non-Gaussian stimuli. To find the relevant dimensions for neural responses probed with non-Gaussian inputs, Hunter and Korenberg proposed an iterative scheme [5] where the relevant dimensions are first found by assuming that the input?output function g is linear. Its functional form is then updated given the current estimate of the relevant dimensions. The inverse of g is then used to improve the estimate of the relevant dimensions. This procedure can be improved not to rely on inverting the nonlinear function g by formulating optimization problem exclusively with respect to relevant dimensions [1, 2], where the nonlinear function g is taken into account in the objective function to be optimized. A family of objective functions suitable for finding relevant dimensions with natural stimuli have been proposed based on R?enyi divergences [1] between the the probability distributions of stimulus components along the candidate relevant dimensions computed with respect to all inputs and those associated with spikes. Here we show that the optimization problem based on the R?enyi divergence of order 2 corresponds to least square fitting of the linear-nonlinear model to neural spike trains. The KullbackLeibler divergence also belongs to this family and is the R?enyi divergence of order 1. It quantifies the amount of mutual information between the neural response and the stimulus components along the relevant dimension [2]. The optimization scheme based on information maximization has been previously proposed and implemented on model [2] and real cells [11]. Here we derive asymptotic errors for optimization strategies based on R?enyi divergences of arbitrary order, and show that relevant dimensions found by maximizing Kullback-Leibler divergence have the smallest errors in the limit of large spike numbers compared to maximizing other R?enyi divergences, including the one which implements least squares. We then show in numerical simulations on model cells that this trend persists even for very low spike numbers. 2 Variance as an Objective Function One way of selecting a low-dimensional model of neural response is to minimize a ?2 -difference between spike probabilities measured and predicted by the model after averaging across all inputs s: ? ?2 Z P (spike|s) P (spike|s ? v) ?2 [v] = dsP (s) ? , (2) P (spike) P (spike) where dimension v is the relevant dimension for a given model described by Eq. (1) [multiple dimensions could also be used, see below]. Using the Bayes? rule and rearranging terms, we get: ?2 Z ? Z Z [P (s|spike)]2 [Pv (x|spike)]2 P (s|spike) P (s ? v|spike) ? = ds ? dx . (3) ?2 [v] = dsP (s) P (s) P (s ? v) P (s) Pv (x) In the last integral averaging has been carried out with respect to all stimulus components except for those along the trial direction v, so that integration variable x = s ? v. Probability distributions Pv (x) and Pv (x|spike) represent the result of this averaging across all presented stimuli and those that lead to a spike, respectively: Z Z Pv (x) = dsP (s)?(x ? s ? v), Pv (x|spike) = dsP (s|spike)?(x ? s ? v), (4) where ?(x) is a delta-function. In practice, both of the averages (4) are calculated by bining the range of projections values x and computing histograms normalized to unity. Note that if there multiple spikes are sometimes elicited, the probability distribution P (x|spike) can be constructed by weighting the contribution from each stimulus according to the number of spikes it elicited. If neural spikes are indeed based on one relevant dimension, then this dimension will explain all of the variance, leading to ?2 = 0. For all other dimensions v, ?2 [v] > 0. Based on Eq. (3), in order to minimize ?2 we need to maximize ?2 Pv (x|spike) , (5) F [v] = dxPv (x) Pv (x) which is a R?enyi divergence of order 2 between probability distribution Pv (x|spike) and Pv (x), and are part of a family of f -divergences measures that are based on a convex function of the ratio of Z ? the two probability distributions (instead of a power ? in a R?enyi divergence of order ?) [12, 13, 1]. For optimization strategy based on R?enyi divergences of order ?, the relevant dimensions are found by maximizing: ? ?? Z Pv (x|spike) 1 (?) dxPv (x) . (6) F [v] = ??1 Pv (x) By comparison, when the relevant dimension(s) are found by maximizing information [2], the goal is to maximize Kullback-Leibler divergence, which can be obtained by taking a formal limit ? ? 1: Z Z Pv (x|spike) Pv (x|spike) Pv (x|spike) ln = dxPv (x|spike) ln . (7) I[v] = dxPv (x) Pv (x) Pv (x) Pv (x) Returning to the variance optimization, the maximal value for F [v] that can be achieved by any dimension v is: Z 2 [P (s|spike)] . (8) Fmax = ds P (s) It corresponds to the variance in the firing rate averaged across different inputs (see Eq. (9) below). Computation of the mutual information carried by the individual spike about the stimulus relies on similar integrals. Following the procedure outlined for computing mutual information [14], one can use the Bayes? rule and the ergodic assumption to compute Fmax as a time-average: ? ?2 Z r(t) 1 dt , (9) Fmax = T r? where the firing rate r(t) = P (spike|s)/?t is measured in time bins of width ?t using multiple repetitions of the same stimulus sequence . The stimulus ensemble should be diverse enough to justify the ergodic assumption [this could be checked by computing Fmax for increasing fractions of the overall dataset size]. The average firing rate r? = P (spike)/?t is obtained by averaging r(t) in time. The fact that F [v] < Fmax can be seen either by simply noting that ?2 [v] ? 0, or from the data processing inequality, which applies not only to Kullback-Leibler divergence, but also to R?enyi divergences [12, 13, 1]. In other words, the variance in the firing rate explained by a given dimension F [v] cannot be greater than the overall variance in the firing rate Fmax . This is because we have averaged over all of the variations in the firing rate that correspond to inputs with the same projection value on the dimension v and differ only in projections onto other dimensions. Optimization scheme based on R?enyi divergences of different orders have very similar structure. In particular, gradient could be evaluated in a similar way: "? ???1 # Z Pv (x|spike) ? d (?) dxPv (x|spike) [hs|x, spikei ? hs|xi] , (10) ?v F = ??1 dx Pv (x) R where hs|x, spikei = ds s?(x?s?v)P (s|spike)/P (x|spike), and similarly for hs|xi. The gradient is thus given by a weighted sum of spike-triggered averages hs|x, spikei ? hs|xi conditional upon projection values of stimuli onto the dimension v for which the gradient of information is being evaluated. The similarity of the structure of both the objective functions and their gradients for different R?enyi divergences means that numeric algorithms can be used for optimization of R?enyi divergences of different orders. Examples of possible algorithms have been described [1, 2, 11] and include a combination of gradient ascent and simulated annealing. Here are a few facts common to this family of optimization schemes. First, as was proved in the case of information maximization based on Kullback-Leibler divergence [2], the merit function F (?) [v] does not change with the length of the vector v. Therefore v ? ?v F = 0, as can also be seen directly from Eq. (10), because v ? hs|x, spikei = x and v ? hs|xi = x. Second, the gradient is 0 when evaluated along the true receptive field. This is because for the true relevant dimension according to which spikes were generated, hs|s1 , spikei = hs|s1 i, a consequence of the fact that relevant projections completely determine the spike probability. Third, merit functions, including variance and information, can be computed with respect to multiple dimensions by keeping track of stimulus projections on all the relevant dimensions when forming probability distributions (4). For example, in the case of two dimensions v1 and v2 , we would use Z Pv1 ,v2 (x1 , x2 |spike) = ds ?(x1 ? s ? v1 )?(x2 ? s ? v2 )P (s|spike), Z Pv1 ,v2 (x1 , x2 ) = ds ?(x1 ? s ? v1 )?(x2 ? s ? v2 )P (s), (11) to R compute the variance with respect 2 dx1 dx2 [P (x1 , x2 |spike)] /P (x1 , x2 ). to the two dimensions as F [v1 , v2 ] = If multiple stimulus dimensions are relevant for eliciting the neural response, they can always be found (provided sufficient number of responses have been recorded) by optimizing the variance according to Eq. (11) with the correct number of dimensions. In practice this involves finding a single relevant dimension first, and then iteratively increasing the number of relevant dimensions considered while adjusting the previously found relevant dimensions. The amount by which relevant dimensions need to be adjusted is proportional to the contribution of subsequent relevant dimensions to neural spiking (the corresponding expression has the same functional form as that for relevant dimensions found by maximizing information, cf. Appendix B [2]). If stimuli are either uncorrelated or correlated but Gaussian, then the previously found dimensions do not need to be adjusted when additional dimensions are introduced. All of the relevant dimensions can be found one by one, by always searching only for a single relevant dimension in the subspace orthogonal to the relevant dimensions already found. 3 Illustration for a model simple cell Here we illustrate how relevant dimensions can be found by maximizing variance (equivalent to least square fitting), and compare this scheme with that of finding relevant dimensions by maximizing information, as well as with those that are based upon computing the spike-triggered average. Our goal is to reconstruct relevant dimensions of neurons probed with inputs of arbitrary statistics. We used stimuli derived from a natural visual environment [11] that are known to strongly deviate from a Gaussian distribution. All of the studies have been carried out with respect to model neurons. Advantage of doing so is that the relevant dimensions are known. The example model neuron is taken to mimic properties of simple cells found in the primary visual cortex. It has a single relevant dimension, which we will denote as e?1 . As can be seen in Fig. 1(a), it is phase and orientation sensitive. In this model, a given stimulus s leads to a spike if the projection s1 = s ? e?1 reaches a threshold value ? in the presence of noise: P (spike|s)/P (spike) ? g(s1 ) = hH(s1 ? ? + ?)i, where a Gaussian random variable ? with variance ? 2 models additive noise, and the function H(x) = 1 for x > 0, and zero otherwise. The parameters ? for threshold and the noise variance ? 2 determine the input?output function. In what follows we will measure these parameters in units of the standard deviation of stimulus projections along the relevant dimension. In these units, the signal-to-noise ratio is given by ?. Figure 1 shows that it is possible to obtain a good estimate of the relevant dimension e?1 by maximizing either information, as shown in panel (b), or variance, as shown in panel(c). The final value of the projection depends on the size of the dataset, as will be discussed below. In the example shown in Fig. 1 there were ? 50, 000 spikes with average probability of spike ? 0.05 per frame, and the reconstructed vector has a projection v?max ? e?1 = 0.98 when maximizing either information or variance. Having estimated the relevant dimension, one can proceed to sample the nonlinear input? output function. This is done by constructing histograms for P (s ? v?max ) and P (s ? v?max |spike) of projections onto vector v?max found by maximizing either information or variance, and taking their ratio. Because of the Bayes? rule, this yields the nonlinear input?output function g of Eq. (1). In Fig. 1(d) the spike probability of the reconstructed neuron P (spike|s ? v?max ) (crosses) is compared with the probability P (spike|s1 ) used in the model (solid line). A good match is obtained. In actuality, reconstructing even just one relevant dimension from neural responses to correlated non-Gaussian inputs, such as those derived from real-world, is not an easy problem. This fact can be appreciated by considering the estimates of relevant dimension obtained from the spike-triggered average (STA) shown in panel (e). Correcting the STA by second-order correlations of the input ensemble through a multiplication by the inverse covariance matrix results in a very noisy estimate, (b) 10 maximally informative dimension 10 (c) 20 20 30 30 30 (e) 20 30 (f) STA 10 10 20 30 (g) decorrelated STA 20 20 20 30 30 30 20 30 10 20 30 regularized decorrelated STA 10 10 10 (d) 10 20 10 dimension of maximal variance spike probability truth 10 20 30 10 20 30 1.0 truth 0.8 maximizing information (x) 0.6 variance (x) 0.4 0.2 0.0 (h) spike probability (a) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 filtered stimulus (sd=1) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 decorrelated STA (x) regularized decorrelated STA (x) 0.2 0.0 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 filtered stimulus (sd=1) Figure 1: Analysis of a model visual neuron with one relevant dimension shown in (a). Panels (b) and (c) show normalized vectors v?max found by maximizing information and variance, respectively; (d) The probability of a spike P (spike|s ? v?max ) (blue crosses ? information maximization, red crosses ? variance maximization) is compared to P (spike|s1 ) used in generating spikes (solid line). Parameters of the model are ? = 0.5 and ? = 2, both given in units of standard deviation of s1 , which is also the units for the x-axis in panels (d and h). The spike?triggered average (STA) is shown in (e). An attempt to remove correlations according to the reverse correlation method, Ca?1 priori vsta (decorrelated STA), is shown in panel (f) and in panel (g) with regularization (see text). In panel (h), the spike probabilities as a function of stimulus projections onto the dimensions obtained as decorrelated STA (blue crosses) and regularized decorrelated STA (red crosses) are compared to a spike probability used to generate spikes (solid line). shown in panel (f). It has a projection value of 0.25. Attempt to regularize the inverse of covariance matrix results in a closer match to the true relevant dimension [15, 16, 17, 18, 19] and has a projection value of 0.8, as shown in panel (g). While it appears to be less noisy, the regularized decorrelated STA can have systematic deviations from the true relevant dimensions [9, 20, 2, 11]. Preferred orientation is less susceptible to distortions than the preferred spatial frequency [19]. In this case regularization was performed by setting aside 1/4 of the data as a test dataset, and choosing a cutoff on the eigenvalues of the input covariances matrix that would give the maximal information value on the test dataset [16, 19]. 4 Comparison of Performance with Finite Data In the limit of infinite data the relevant dimensions can be found by maximizing variance, information, or other objective functions [1]. In a real experiment, with a dataset of finite size, the optimal vector found by any of the R?enyi divergences v? will deviate from the true relevant dimension e?1 . In this section we compare the robustness of optimization strategies based on R?enyi divergences of various orders, including least squares fitting (? = 2) and information maximization (? = 1), as the dataset size decreases and/or neural noise increases. The deviation from the true relevant dimension ?v = v? ? e?1 arises because the probability distributions (4) are estimated from experimental histograms and differ from the distributions found in the limit of infinite data size. The effects of noise on the reconstruction can be characterized by taking the dot product between the relevant dimension and the optimal vector for a particular data sample: v? ? e?1 = 1 ? 21 ?v2 , where both v? and e?1 are normalized, and ?v is by definition orthogonal to e?1 . Assuming that the deviation ?v is small, we can use quadratic approximation to expand the objective function (obtained with finite data) near its maximum. This leads to an expression ?v = ?[H (?) ]?1 ?F (?) , which relates deviation ?v to the gradient and Hessian of the objective function evaluated at the vector e?1 . Subscript (?) denotes the order of the R?enyi divergence used as an objective function. Similarly to the case of optimizing information [2], the Hessian of R?enyi divergence of arbitrary order when evaluated along the optimal dimension e?1 is given by ???3 ? ? ??2 ? Z d P (x|spike) P (x|spike) (?) , Hij = ?? dxP (x|spike)Cij (x) P (x) dx P (x) (12) where Cij (x) = (hsi sj |xi ? hsi |xihsj |xi) are covariance matrices of inputs sorted by their projection x along the optimal dimension. When averaged over possible outcomes of N trials, the gradient is zero for the optimal direction. In other words, there is no specific direction towards which the deviations ?v are biased. Next, in order to measure the dimensions around the true one e?1 , we need to evaluate h expected spread?of optimal ? i 2 (?) (?)T (?) ?2 h?v i = Tr h?F ?F i H , and therefore need to know the variance of the gradient of F averaged across different equivalent datasets. Assuming that the probability of generating a (?) (?) (?) spike is independent for different bins, we find that h?Fi ?Fj i = Bij /Nspike , where ?2??4 ? ?2 ? Z d P (x|spike) P (x|spike) (?) 2 . (13) Bij = ? dxP (x|spike)Cij (x) P (x) dx P (x) Therefore an expected error in the reconstruction of the optimal filter by maximizing variance is inversely proportional to the number of spikes: 1 Tr0 [BH ?2 ] , v? ? e?1 ? 1 ? h?v2 i = 1 ? 2 2Nspike (14) where we omitted superscripts (?) for clarity. Tr0 denotes the trace taken in the subspace orthogonal to the relevant dimension (deviations along the relevant dimension have no meaning [2], which mathematically manifests itself in dimension e?1 being an eigenvector of matrices H and B with the zero eigenvalue). Note that when ? = 1, which corresponds to Kullback-Leibler divergence and information maximization, A ? H ?=1 = B ?=1 . The asymptotic errors ? in?this case are completely determined by the trace of the Hessian of information, h?v2 i ? Tr0 A?1 , reproducing the previously published result for maximally informative dimensions [2]. Qualitatively, the expected error ? D/(2Nspike ) increases in proportion to the dimensionality D of inputs and decreases as more spikes are collected. This dependence is in common with expected errors of relevant dimensions found by maximizing information [2], as well as methods based on computing the spike-triggered average both for white noise [1, 21, 22] and correlated Gaussian inputs [2]. Next we examine which of the R?enyi divergences provides the smallest asymptotic error (14) for estimating relevant dimensions. Representing the covariance matrix as Cij (x) = ?ik (x)?jk (x) (exact expression for matrices ? will not be needed), we can express the Hessian matrix H and covariance matrix for the gradient B as averages with respect to probability distribution P (x|spike): Z Z B = dxP (x|spike)b(x)bT (x), H = dxP (x|spike)a(x)bT (x), (15) ??2 where the gain function g(x) = P (x|spike)/P (x), and matrices bij (x) = ??ij (x)g 0 (x) [g(x)] and aij (x) = ?ij (x)g 0 (x)/g(x). Cauchy-Schwarz identity for scalar quantities states that, hb2 i/habi2 ? 1/ha2 i, where the average is taken with respect to some probability distribution. A similar result can also be proven for matrices under a Tr operation as in Eq. (14). Applying the matrix-version of the Cauchy-Schwarz identity to Eq. (14), we find that the smallest error is obtained when Z Tr0 [BH ?2 ] = Tr0 [A?1 ], with A = dxP (x|spike)a(x)aT (x), (16) Matrix A corresponds to the Hessian of the merit function for ? = 1: A = H (?=1) . Thus, among the various optimization strategies based on R?enyi divergences, Kullback-Leibler divergence (? = 1) has the smallest asymptotic errors. The least square fitting corresponds to optimization based on R?enyi divergence with ? = 2, and is expected to have larger errors than optimization based on Kullback-Leibler divergence (? = 1) implementing information maximization. This result agrees with recent findings that Kullback-Leibler divergence is the best distortion measure for performing lossy compression [3]. Below we use numerical simulations with model cells to compare the performance of information (? = 1) and variance (? = 2) maximization strategies in the regime of relatively small numbers < of spikes. We are interested in the range 0.1 < ? D/Nspike ? 1, where the asymptotic results do not necessarily apply. The results of simulations are shown in Fig. 2 as a function of D/Nspike , as well as with varying neural noise levels. To estimate sharper (less noisy) input/output functions with ? = 1.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.25, we used larger number of bins (16, 21, 32, 64), respectively. Identical numerical algorithms, including the number of bins, were used for maximizing variance and information. The relevant dimension for each simulated spike train was obtained as an average of 4 jackknife estimates computed by setting aside 1/4 of the data as a test set. Results are shown after 1000 line optimizations (D = 900), and performance on the test set was checked after every line optimization. As can be seen, generally good reconstructions with projection values > ? 0.7 can be obtained by maximizing either information or variance, even in the severely undersampled regime D < Nspike . We find that reconstruction errors are comparable for both information and variance maximization strategies, and are better or equal (at very low spike numbers) than STA-based methods. Information maximization achieves significantly smaller errors than the least-square fitting, when we analyze results for all simulations for four different models cells and spike numbers (p < 10?4 , paired t-test). 1.0 1.0 maximizing information maximizing variance regularized decorrelated STA projection on true dimension 0.9 0.8 0.7 D C B 0.9 A maximizing information maximizing variance 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 STA 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 A B C decorrelated STA 0.5 1.0 1.5 D / N spike B C 0 0 A D 2.0 2.5 0.5 0 D 0.5 1.0 1.5 D / N spike 2.0 2.5 Figure 2: Projection of vector v?max obtained by maximizing information (red filled symbols) or variance (blue open symbols) on the true relevant dimension e?1 is plotted as a function of ratio between stimulus dimensionality D and the number of spikes Nspike , with D = 900. Simulations were carried out for model visual neurons with one relevant dimension from Fig. 1(a) and the input-output function Eq.(1) described by threshold ? = 2.0 and noise standard deviation ? = 1.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.25 for groups labeled A (4), B (5), C (?), and D (2), respectively. The left panel also shows results obtained using spike-triggered average (STA, gray) and decorrelated STA (dSTA, black). In the right panel, we replot results for information and variance optimization together with those for regularized decorrelated STA (RdSTA, green open symbols). All error bars show standard deviations. 5 Conclusions In this paper we compared accuracy of a family of optimization strategies for analyzing neural responses to natural stimuli based on R?enyi divergences. Finding relevant dimensions by maximizing one of the merit functions, R?enyi divergence of order 2, corresponds to fitting the linear-nonlinear model in the least-square sense to neural spike trains. Advantage of this approach over standard least square fitting procedure is that it does not require the nonlinear gain function to be invertible. We derived errors expected for relevant dimensions computed by maximizing R?enyi divergences of arbitrary order in the asymptotic regime of large spike numbers. The smallest errors were achieved not in the case of (nonlinear) least square fitting of the linear-nonlinear model to the neural spike trains (R?enyi divergence of order 2), but with information maximization (based on Kullback-Leibler divergence). Numeric simulations on the performance of both information and variance maximization strategies showed that both algorithms performed well even when the number of spikes is very small. With small numbers of spikes, reconstructions based on information maximization had also slightly, but significantly, smaller errors those of least-square fitting. 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A Risk Minimization Principle for a Class of Parzen Estimators Kristiaan Pelckmans, Johan A.K. Suykens, Bart De Moor Department of Electrical Engineering (ESAT) - SCD/SISTA K.U.Leuven University Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, Belgium [email protected] Abstract This paper1 explores the use of a Maximal Average Margin (MAM) optimality principle for the design of learning algorithms. It is shown that the application of this risk minimization principle results in a class of (computationally) simple learning machines similar to the classical Parzen window classifier. A direct relation with the Rademacher complexities is established, as such facilitating analysis and providing a notion of certainty of prediction. This analysis is related to Support Vector Machines by means of a margin transformation. The power of the MAM principle is illustrated further by application to ordinal regression tasks, resulting in an O(n) algorithm able to process large datasets in reasonable time. 1 Introduction The quest for efficient machine learning techniques which (a) have favorable generalization capacities, (b) are flexible for adaptation to a specific task, and (c) are cheap to implement is a pervasive theme in literature, see e.g. [14] and references therein. This paper introduces a novel concept for designing a learning algorithm, namely the Maximal Average Margin (MAM) principle. It closely resembles the classical notion of maximal margin as lying on the basis of perceptrons, Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and boosting algorithms, see a.o. [14, 11]. It however optimizes the average margin of points to the (hypothesis) hyperplane, instead of the worst case margin as traditional. The full margin distribution was studied earlier in e.g. [13], and theoretical results were extended and incorporated in a learning algorithm in [5]. The contribution of this paper is twofold. On a methodological level, we relate (i) results in structural risk minimization, (ii) data-dependent (but dimension-independent) Rademacher complexities [8, 1, 14] and a new concept of ?certainty of prediction?, (iii) the notion of margin (as central is most state-of-the-art learning machines), and (iv) statistical estimators as Parzen windows and NadarayaWatson kernel estimators. In [10], the principle was already shown to underlie the approach of mincuts for transductive inference over a weighted undirected graph. Further, consider the modelclass consisting of all models with bounded average margin (or classes with a fixed Rademacher complexity as we will indicate lateron). The set of such classes is clearly nested, enabling structural risk minimization [8]. On a practical level, we show how the optimality principle can be used for designing a computationally fast approach to (large-scale) classification and ordinal regression tasks, much along the same 1 Acknowledgements - K. Pelckmans is supported by an FWO PDM. J.A.K. Suykens and B. De Moor are a (full) professor at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium. Research supported by Research Council KUL: GOA AMBioRICS, CoE EF/05/006 OPTEC, IOF-SCORES4CHEM, several PhD/postdoc & fellow grants; Flemish Government: FWO: PhD/postdoc grants, projects G.0452.04, G.0499.04, G.0211.05, G.0226.06, G.0321.06, G.0302.07, (ICCoS, ANMMM, MLDM); IWT: PhD Grants, McKnow-E, Eureka-Flite+ Belgian Federal Science Policy Office: IUAP P6/04, EU: ERNSI; 1 lines as Parzen classifiers and Nadaraya-Watson estimators. It becomes clear that this result enables researchers on Parzen windows to benefit directly from recent advances in kernel machines, two fields which have evolved mostly separately. It must be emphasized that the resulting learning rules were already studied in different forms and motivated by asymptotic and geometric arguments, as e.g. the Parzen window classifier [4], the ?simple classifier? as in [12] chap. 1, probabilistic neural networks [15], while in this paper we show how an (empirical) risk based optimality criterion underlies this approach. A number of experiments confirm the use of the resulting cheap learning rules for providing a reasonable (baseline) performance in a small time-window. The following notational conventions are used throughout the paper. Let the random vector (X, Y ) ? Rd ? {?1, 1} obey a (fixed but unknown) joint distribution PXY from a probability n space (Rd ? {?1, 1}, P). Let Dn = {(Xi , Yi )}i=1 be sampled i.i.d. according to PXY . Let y ? Rn be defined as y = (Y1 , . . . , Yn )T ? {?1, 1}n and X = (X1 , . . . , Xn )T ? Rn?d . This paper is organized as follows. The next section illustrates the principle of maximal average margin for classification problems. Section 3 investigates the close relationship with Rademacher complexities, Section 4 develops the maximal average margin principle for ordinal regression, and Section 5 reports experimental results of application of the MAM to classification and ordinal regression tasks. 2 2.1 Maximal Average Margin for Classifiers The Linear Case Let the class of hypotheses be defined as n o H = f (?) : Rd ? R, w ? Rd ?x ? Rd : f (x) = wT x, kwk2 = 1 . (1) Consequently, the signed distance of a sample (X, Y ) to the hyper-plane wT x = 0, or the margin M (w) ? R, can be defined as Y (wT X) M (w) = . (2) kwk2 SVMs maximize the worst-case margin. We instead focus on the first moment of the margin distribution. Maximizing the expected (average) margin follows from solving   Y (wT X) ? = max E [Y f (X)] . (3) M = max E w f ?H kwk2 Remark that the non-separable case does not require the need for slack-variables. The empirical counterpart becomes n X Yi (wT Xi ) ? = max 1 M , (4) w n kwk2 i=1 Pn which can be written as a constrained convex problem as minw ? n1 i=1 Yi (wT Xi ) s.t. kwk2 ? P n 1. The Lagrangian with multiplier ? ? 0 becomes L(w, ?) = ? n1 i=1 Yi (wT Xi ) + ?2 (wT w ? 1). By switching the minimax problem to a maximin problem (application of Slater?s condition), the first order condition for optimality ?L(w,?) = 0 gives ?w n 1 X 1 T wn = Yi Xi = X y, (5) ?n i=1 ?n where wn ? Rd denotes the optimum to (4). The corresponding parameter p ? can be found by Pn substituting (5) in the constraint wT w = 1, or ? = n1 k i=1 Yi Xi k2 = n1 yT XXT y since the optimum is obviously taking place when wT w = 1. It becomes clear that the above derivations remain valid as n ? ?, resulting in the following theorem. Theorem 1 (Explicit Actual Optimum for the MAMC) The function f (x) = wT x in H maximizing the expected margin satisfies   Y (wT X) 1 (6) arg max E = E[XY ] , w? , kwk2 ? w where ? is a normalization constant such that kw? k2 = 1. 2 2.2 Kernel-based Classifier and Parzen Window It becomes straightforward to recast the resulting classifier as a kernel classifier by mapping the input data-samples X in a feature space ? : Rd ? Rd? where d? is possibly infinite. In particular, we do not have to resort to Lagrange duality in a context of convex optimization (see e.g. [14, 9] for an overview) or functional analysis in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Specifically, n 1 X wnT ?(X) = Yi K(Xi , X), (7) ?n i=1 where K : Rd ? Rd ? R is defined as the inner product such that ?(X)T ?(X ? ) = K(X, X ? ) for any X, X ? . Conversely, any function K corresponds with the inner product of apvalid map ? if the function K is positive definite. As previously, the term ? becomes ? = n1 yT ?y with kernel matrix ? ? Rn?n where ?ij = K(Xi , Xj ) for all i, j = 1, . . . , n. Now the class of positive definite Mercer kernels can be used as they induce a proper mapping ?. A classical choice is the use of a linear kernel (or K(X, X ? ) = X T X ? ), a polynomial kernel of degree p ? N0 (or K(X, X ? ) = (X T X ? + b)p ), an RBF kernel (or K(X, X ? ) = exp(?kX ? X ? k22 /?)), or a dedicated kernel for a specific application (e.g. a string kernel, a Fisher kernel, see e.g. [14] and references therein). Figure 1.a depicts an example of a nonlinear classifier based on the well-known Ripley dataset, and the contourlines score the ?certainty of prediction? as explained in the next section. The expression (7) is similar (proportional) to the classical Parzen window for classification, but differs in the use of a positive definite (Mercer) kernel K instead of the pdf ?( X?? h ) with bandwidth h > 0, and in the form of the denominator. The classical motivation of statistical kernel estimators is based on asymptotic theory in low dimensions (i.e d = O(1)), see e.g. [4], chap. 10 and references. The functional form of the optimal rule (7) is similar to the ?simple classifier? described in [12], chap. 1. Thirdly, this estimator was also termed and empirically validated as a probabilistic neural network by [15]. The novel element from above result is the derivation of a clear (both theoretical and empirical) optimality principle of the rule, as opposed to the asymptotic results of [4] and the geometric motivations in [12, 15]. As a direct byproduct, it becomes straightforward to extend the Parzen window classifier easily with an additional intercept term or other parametric parts, or towards additive (structured) models as in [9]. 3 Analysis and Rademacher Complexities The quantity of interest in the analysis of the generalization performance is the probability of predicting a mistake (the risk R(w; PXY )), or    R(w; PXY ) = PXY Y (wT ?(X)) ? 0 = E I(Y (wT ?(X)) ? 0) , (8) where I(z) equals one if z is true, and zero otherwise. 3.1 Rademacher Complexity Let {?i }ni=1 taken from the set {?1, 1}n be Bernoulli random variables with P (? = 1) = P (? = ?1) = 21 . The empirical Rademacher complexity is then defined [8, 1] as " # n X 2 ? n (H) , E? sup R ?i f (Xi ) X1 , . . . , Xn , (9) f ?H n i=1 where the expectation is taken over the choice of the binary vector ? = (?1 , . . . , ?n )T ? {?1, 1}n . It is observed that the empirical Rademacher complexity defines a natural complexity measure to study the maximal average margin classifier, as both the definitions of the empirical Rademacher complexity and the maximal average margin resemble closely (see also [8]). The following result was given in [1], Lemma 22, but we give an alternative proof by exploiting the structure of the optimal estimate explicitly. Lemma 1 (Trace bound for the Empirical Rademacher Complexity for H) Let ? ? Rn?n be defined as ?ij = K(Xi , Xj ) for all i, j = 1, . . . , n, then p ? n (H) ? 2 tr(?). R (10) n 3 Proof: The proof goes along the same lines as the classical bound on the empirical Rademacher n complexity for kernel machines outlined in [1], Lemma Pn22. Specifically, once a vector ? ? {?1, 1} 1 is fixed, it is immediately seen that the maxf ?H n i=1 ?i f (Xi ) equals the solution as in (7) or ? Pn T maxw i=1 ?i (wT ?(Xi )) = ?? T?? = ? T ??. Now, application of the expectation operator E ? ?? over the choice of the Rademacher variables gives ? ? 12  ?  X  T  12 2 2 2 ? n (H) = E R E ? ?? E [?i ?j ] K(Xi , Xj )? ? T ?? ? = ? n n n i,j 2 = n n X ! 12 K(Xi , Xi ) i=1 = 2p tr(?), (11) n where the inequality is based on application of Jensen?s inequality. This proves the Lemma.  Remarkpthat in the case of a kernel with constant trace (as e.g. in the case of the RBF kernel ? where tr(?)p= n), it follows from this result that also the (expected) Rademacher complexity ? n (H)] ? tr(?). In general, one has that E[K(X, X)] equals the trace of the integral operator E[R R TK defined on L2 (PX ) defined as TK (f ) = K(X, Y )f (X)dPX (X) as in [1]. Application of Pn McDiarmid?s inequality on the variable Z = supf ?H E[Y (wT ?(X))] ? n1 i=1 Yi (wT ?(Xi )) gives as in [8, 1]. Lemmap 2 (Deviation Inequality) Let 0 < B? < ? be a fixed constant such that supz k?(z)k2 = supz K(z, z) ? B? such that |wT ?(z)| ? B? , and let ? ? R+ 0 be fixed. Then with probability d exceeding 1 ? ?, one has for any w ? R that s  n X 2 ln 2? 1 T T ? E[Y (w ?(X))] ? Yi (w ?(Xi )) ? Rn (H) ? 3B? . (12) n i=1 n Therefore it follows that one maximizes the expected margin by maximizing the empirical average margin, while controlling the empirical Rademacher complexity by choice of the model class (kernel). In the case of RBF kernels, B? = 1, resulting in a reasonable tight bound. It is now illustrated how one can obtain a practical upper-bound to the ?certainty of prediction? using f (x) = wnT x. Theorem 2 (Occurrence pof Mistakes) Given an i.i.d. sample Dn = B ? R such that supz K(z, z) ? B? , and a fixed ? ? R+ 0 . Then, 1 ? ?, one has for all w ? Rd that ?p T  B ? E[Y (w ?(X))] yT ?y ? P Y (wT ?(X)) ? 0 ? ?1?? + B? nB? {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 , a constant with probability exceeding s ? ? n (H) 2 ln 2? R ?. +3 B? n (13) Proof: The proof follows directly from application of Markov?s inequality on the positive random variable B? ? Y (wT ?(X)), with expectation B? ? E[Y (wT ?(X))], estimated accurately by the sample average as in the previous theorem.  More generally, one obtains that with probability exceeding 1 ? ? that for any w ? Rd and for any ? such that ?B? < ? < B? that ? p s ? 2 T ?y ?  2 ln R (H) 3B B y ? n ? ? ? , (14) P Y (wT ?(X)) ? ?? ? ?? + + B? + ? n(B? + ?) B? + ? B? + ? n with probability exceeding 1 ? ? < 1. This results in a practical assessment of the ?certainty? of a prediction as follows. At first, note that the random variable Y (wnT ?(x)) for a fixed X = x can take two values: either ?|wnT ?(x)| or |wnT ?(x)|. Therefore P (Y (wnT ?(x)) ? 0) = P (Y (wnT ?(x)) = 4 Class prediction class 1 class 2 1 1 0.6 X2 0.8 0.6 X2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 ?0.2 ?1.2 ?1 ?0.8 ?0.6 ?0.4 ?0.2 X 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 ?0.2 0.8 1 ?1.2 ?1 ?0.8 ?0.6 ?0.4 ?0.2 X 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 (a) (b) Figure 1: Example of (a) the MAM classifier and (b) the SVM on the Ripley dataset. The contourlines represent the estimate of certainty of prediction (?scores?) as derived in Theorem 2 for the MAM classifier for (a), and as in Corollary 1 for the case of SVMs with g(z) = min(1, max(?1, z)) where |z| < 1 corresponds with the inner part of the margin of the SVM (b). While the contours in (a) give an overall score of the predictions, the scores given in (b) focus towards the margin of the SVM. ?|wnT ?(x)|) ? P (Y (wnT ?(x)) ? ?|wnT ?(x)|) as Y can only take the two values ?1 or 1. Thus the event ?Y 6= sign(wT x? )? for samples X = x? occurs with probability lower than the rhs. of (13) with ? = |wT x? |. When asserting this for a number nv ? N of samples X ? PX with nv ? ?, a misprediction would occur less than ?nv times. In this sense, one can use the latent variable wT ?(x? ) as an indication of how ?certain? the prediction is. Figure 1.a gives an example of the MAM classifier, together with the level plots indicating the certainty of prediction. Remark however that the described ?certainty of prediction? statement differs from a conditional statement of the risk given as P (Y (wT ?(X)) < 0 | X = x? ). The essential difference with the probabilistic estimates based on the density estimates resulting from the Parzen window estimator is that results become independent of the data dimension, as one avoids estimating the joint distribution. 3.2 Transforming the Margin Distribution Consider the case where the assumption of a reasonable constant B such that P (kXk2 < B) = 1 is unrealistic. Then, a transformation of the random variable Y (wT X) can be fruitful using a monotone increasing function g : R ? R with a constant B?? ? B such that |g(z)| ? B?? , and g(0) = 0. In the choice of a proper transformation, two counteracting effects should be traded properly. At first, a small choice of B improves the bound as e.g. described in Lemma 2. On the other hand, such a transformation would make the expected value E[g(Y (wT ?(X)))] smaller than E[Y (wT ?(X))]. Modifying Theorem 2 gives Corollary 1 (Occurrence of Mistakes, bis) Given i.i.d. samples Dn = {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 , and a fixed ? ? R+ 0 . Let g : R ? R be a monotonically increasing function with Lipschitz constant 0 < Lg < ?, let B?? ? R such that |g(z)| ? B?? for all z, and g(0) = 0. Then with probability exceeding 1 ? ?, one has for any ? such that ?B?? ? ? ? B?? and w ? Rd that q Pn 2 log( ?2 ) 1 ? T ? ?  B g(Y (w ?(X ))) ? L R (H) ? 3B i i g n ? n ? i=1 n n T P g(Y (wn ?(X))) ? ?? ? ? ? . B? + ? B?? + ? (15) ? n (g ? H) ? This result follows straightforwardly from Theorem 2 using the property that R  T ? n (H), see e.g. [1]. When ? = 0, one has P g(Y (wnT ?(X))) ? 0 ? 1?E[Y g(w ?(X))] . Lg R 1 Similar as in the previous section, corollary 1 can be used to score the certainty of prediction by considering for each X = x? the value of g(wT x? ) and g(?wT x? ). Figure 1.b gives an example by considering the clipping transformation g(z) = min(1, max(?1, z)) ? [?1, 1] such that B?? = 1. 5 Note that this a-priori choice of the function g is not dependent on the (empirical) optimality criterion at hand. 3.3 Soft-margin SVMs and MAM classifiers Except the margin-based mechanisms, the MAM classifier shares other properties with the softmargin maximal margin classifier (SVM) as well. Consider the following saturation function g(z) = (1 ? z)+ , where (?)+ is defined as (z)+ = z if z ? 0, and zero otherwise (g(0) = 0). Application of this function to the MAM formulation of (4), one obtains for a C > 0 n X  max ? 1 ? Yi (wT ?(Xi )) + s.t. wT w = C, (16) w i=1 which is similar to the support vector machine (see e.g. [14]). To make this equivalence more explicit, consider the following formulation of (16) min w,? n X i=1 ?i s.t. wT w ? C and Yi (wT ?(Xi )) ? 1 ? ?i , ?i ? 0 ?i = 1, . . . , n, (17) which is similar to the SVM. Consider the following modification min w,? n X i=1 ?i s.t. wT w ? C and Yi (wT ?(Xi )) ? 1 ? ?i ?i = 1, . . . , n, (18) which is equivalent to (4) as in the optimum, Yi (wT ?(Xi )) = (1 ? ?i ) for all i. Thus, omission of the slack constraints ?i ? 0 in the SVM formulation results in the Parzen window classifier. 4 Maximal Average Margin for Ordinal Regression Along the same lines as [6], the maximal average margin principle can be applied to ordinal regression tasks. Let (X, Y ) ? Rd ? {1, . . . , m} with distribution PXY . The w ? Rd maximizing P (I(wT (?(X) ? ?(X)? )(Y ? Y ? ) > 0)) can be found by solving for the maximal average margin between pairs as follows   sign(Y ? Y ? )wT (?(X) ? ?(X)? ) M ? = max E . (19) w kwk2 Given n i.i.d. samples {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 , empirical risk minimization is obtained by solving n 1 X sign(Yj ? Yi )wT (?(Xj ) ? ?(Xi )) s.t. kwk2 ? 1. (20) w n i,j=1 P The Lagrangian with multiplier ? ? 0 becomes L(w, ?) = ? n1 i,j wT sign(Yj ? Yi )(?(Xj ) ? ? ?(Xi ))+ ?2 (wT w ?1). Let there be n? couples (i, j). Let Dy ? {?1, 0, 1}n ?n such that Dy,ki = 1 and Dy,kj = ?1 if the kth couple equals (i, j). Then, by switching the minimax problem to a maximin problem, the first order condition for optimality ?L(w,?) = 0 gives the expression. wn = ?w P 1 1 ? (?(X ) ? ?(X )) = XD 1 . Now the parameter ? can be found by substituting j i y n Yi <Yj ?? n ?n q (5) in the constraint wT w = 1, or ? = n1 1Tn? DyT XT X Dy 1n? . Now the key element is the computation of dy = Dy 1n? . Note that min ? dy (i) = n X j=1 sign(Yj ? Yi ) , ry (i), (21) with rY denoting the ranks of all Yi in y. This expression simplifies expression for wn as wn = 1 ?n Xdy . It is seen that using kernels as before, the resulting estimator of the order of the responses corresponding to x and x? becomes n 1 X f?K (x, x? ) = sign (m(x) ? m(x? )) , where m(x) = K(Xi , x) rY (i). ?n i=1 6 (22) 120 oMAM LS?SVM oSVM oGP 100 Frequency 80 60 40 20 0 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 ? 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 (a) 1 Data (train/test) Bank(1) (100/8.092) Bank(1) (500/7.629) Bank(1) (5.000/3.192) Bank(1) (7.500/692) Bank(2) (100/8.092) Bank(2) (500/7.629) Bank(2) (5.000/3.192) Bank(2) (7.500/692) Cpu(1) (100/20.540) Cpu(1) (500/20.140) Cpu(1) (5.000/15.640) Cpu(1) (7.500/13.140) Cpu(1) (15.000/5.640) (b) oMAM 0.37 0.49 0.56 0.57 0.81 0.83 0.86 0.88 0.44 0.50 0.57 0.60 0.69 LS-SVM 0.43 0.51 0.56 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.62 0.66 0.68 - oSVM 0.46 0.55 0.87 0.87 0.64 0.66 - oGP 0.41 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.63 0.65 - Figure 2: Results on ordinal regression tasks using oMAM (22) of O(n), a regression on the rank-transformed responses using LS-SVMs [16] of O(n2 ) ? O(n3 ), ordinal SVMs and ordinal Gaussian Processes for preferential learning of O(n4 ) ? O(n6 ). The results are expressed as Kendall?s ? (with ?1 ? ? ? 1) computed on the validation datasets. Figure (a) reports the numerical results of the artificially generated data, Table (b) gives the result on a number of large scaled datasets described in [2], if the computation took less than 5 minutes. Remark that the estimator m : Rd ? R equals (except for the normalization term) the NadarayaWatson kernel based on the rank-transform rY of the responses. This observation suggest the application of standard regression tools based on the rank-transformed responses as in [7]. Experiments confirm the use of the proposed ranking estimator, and also motivate the use of a more involved function approximation tools as e.g. LS-SVMs [16] based on the rank-transformed responses. 5 Illustrative Example Table 2.b provides numerical results on the 13 classification (including 100 randomizations) benchmark datasets as described in [11]. The choice of an appropriate kernel parameter was obtained by cross-validation over a range of bandwidths from ? = 1e ? 2 to ? = 1e15. The results illustrate that the Parzen window classifier performs in general slightly (but not significantly so) worse than the other methods, but obviously reduces the required amount of memory and computation time (i.e. O(n) versus O(n2 ) ? O(n3 )). Hence, it is advised to use the Parzen classifier as a cheap base-line method, or to use it in a context where time- or memory requirements are stringent. The first artificial dataset for testing the ordinal regression scheme is constructed as follows. The trainv ing set {(Xi , Yi )}ni=1 ? R5 ? R with n = 100 and a validation set {(Xiv , Yiv )}ni=1 ? R5 ? R with nv = 250 is constructed such that Zi = (w?T Xi )3 + ei and Ziv = (w?T Xiv )3 + evi with w? ? N (0, 1), X, X v ? N (0, I5 ), and e, ev ? N (0, 0.25). Now Y (and Y v ) are generated prev 250 2 serving the order implied by {Zi }100 i=1 (and {Zi }i=1 ) with the intervals ? -distributed with 5 degrees of freedom. Figure 2.a shows the results of a Monte Carlo experiment relating both the O(n) proposed estimator (22), a LS-SVM regressor of O(n2 ) ? O(n3 ) on the rank-transformed responses {(Xi , rY (i))}, the O(n4 ) ? O(n6 ) SVM approach as proposed in [3] and the Gaussian Process approach of O(n4 ) ? O(n6 ) given in [2]. The performance of the different algorithms is expressed in terms of Kendall?s ? computed on the validation data. Table 2.b reports the results on some large scale datasets as described in [2], imposing a maximal computation time of 5 minutes. Both tests suggest the competitive nature of the proposed O(n) procedure, while clearly showing the benefit of using function estimation (as e.g. LS-SVMs) based on the rank-transformed responses. 7 6 Conclusion This paper discussed the use of the MAM risk optimality principle for designing a learning machine for classification and ordinal regression. The relation with classical methods including Parzen windows and Nadaraya-Watson estimators is established, while the relation with the empirical Rademacher complexity is used to provide a measure of ?certainty of prediction?. Empirical experiments show the applicability of the O(n) algorithms on real world problems, trading performance somewhat for computational efficiency with respect to state-of-the art learning algorithms. References [1] P.L. Bartlett and S. Mendelson. Rademacher and gaussian complexities: Risk bounds and structural results. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:463?482, 2002. [2] W. Chu and Z. Ghahramani. Gaussian processes for ordinal regression. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1019?1041, 2006. [3] W. Chu and S. S. Keerthi. New approaches to support vector ordinal regression. In in Proc. of International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 145?152. 2005. [4] L. Devroye, L. Gy?orfi, and G. Lugosi. A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition. Springer-Verlag, 1996. [5] A. Garg and D. Roth. Margin distribution and learning algorithms. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 210?217. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2003. [6] R. Herbrich, T. Graepel, and K. Obermayer. Large margin rank boundaries for ordinal regression. Advances in Large Margin Classifiers, pages 115?132, 2000. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. [7] R.L. Iman and W.J. Conover. The use of the rank transform in regression. Technometrics, 21(4):499?509, 1979. [8] V. Koltchinski. Rademacher penalties and structural risk minimization. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 47(5):1902?1914, 1999. [9] K. Pelckmans. Primal-Dual kernel Machines. PhD thesis, Faculty of Engineering, K.U.Leuven, May. 2005. 280 p., TR 05-95. [10] K. Pelckmans, J. Shawe-Taylor, J.A.K. Suykens, and B. De Moor. Margin based transductive graph cuts using linear programming. In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, (AISTATS 2007), pp. 360-367, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2007. [11] G. R?atsch, T. Onoda, and K.-R. M?uller. Soft margins for adaboost. Machine Learning, 42(3):287 ? 320, 2001. [12] B. Sch?olkopf and A. Smola. Learning with Kernels. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2002. [13] J. Shawe-Taylor and N. Cristianini. Further results on the margin distribution. In Proceedings of the twelfth annual conference on Computational learning theory (COLT), pages 278?285. ACM Press, 1999. [14] J. Shawe-Taylor and N. Cristianini. Kernel Methods for Pattern Analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [15] D.F. Specht. Probabilistic neural networks. Neural Networks, 3:110?118, 1990. [16] J.A.K. Suykens, T. van Gestel, J. De Brabanter, B. De Moor, and J. Vandewalle. Least Squares Support Vector Machines. World Scientific, Singapore, 2002. 8
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Optimal models of sound localization by barn owls Brian J. Fischer Division of Biology California Institute of Technology Pasadena, CA [email protected] Abstract Sound localization by barn owls is commonly modeled as a matching procedure where localization cues derived from auditory inputs are compared to stored templates. While the matching models can explain properties of neural responses, no model explains how the owl resolves spatial ambiguity in the localization cues to produce accurate localization for sources near the center of gaze. Here, I examine two models for the barn owl?s sound localization behavior. First, I consider a maximum likelihood estimator in order to further evaluate the cue matching model. Second, I consider a maximum a posteriori estimator to test whether a Bayesian model with a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze can reproduce the owl?s localization behavior. I show that the maximum likelihood estimator can not reproduce the owl?s behavior, while the maximum a posteriori estimator is able to match the behavior. This result suggests that the standard cue matching model will not be sufficient to explain sound localization behavior in the barn owl. The Bayesian model provides a new framework for analyzing sound localization in the barn owl and leads to predictions about the owl?s localization behavior. 1 Introduction Barn owls, the champions of sound localization, show systematic errors when localizing sounds. Owls localize broadband noise signals with great accuracy for source directions near the center of gaze [1]. However, localization errors increase as source directions move to the periphery, consistent with an underestimate of the source direction [1]. Behavioral experiments show that the barn owl uses the interaural time difference (ITD) for localization in the horizontal dimension and the interaural level difference (ILD) for localization in the vertical dimension [2]. Direct measurements of the sounds received at the ears for sources at different locations in space show that disparate directions are associated with very similar localization cues. Specifically, there is a similarity between ILD and ITD cues for directions near the center of gaze and directions with eccentric elevations on the vertical plane. How does the owl resolve this ambiguity in the localization cues to produce accurate localization for sound sources near the center of gaze? Theories regarding the use of localization cues by the barn owl are drawn from the extensive knowledge of processing in the barn owl?s auditory system. Neurophysiological and anatomical studies show that the barn owl?s auditory system contains specialized circuitry that is devoted to extracting spectral ILD and ITD cues and processing them to derive source direction information [2]. It has been suggested that a spectral matching operation between ILD and ITD cues computed from auditory inputs and preferred ILD and ITD spectra associated with spatially selective auditory neurons underlies the derivation of spatial information from the auditory cues [3?6]. The spectral matching models reproduce aspects of neural responses, but none reproduces the sound localization behavior of the barn owl. In particular, the spectral matching models do not describe how the owl resolves ambiguities in the localization cues. In addition to spectral matching of localization cues, it is possible 1 that the owl incorporates prior experience or beliefs into the process of deriving direction estimates from the auditory input signals. These two approaches to sound localization can be formalized using the language of estimation theory as maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian solutions, respectively. Here, I examine two models for the barn owl?s sound localization behavior in order to further evaluate the spectral matching model and to test whether a Bayesian model with a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze can reproduce the owl?s localization behavior. I begin by viewing the sound localization problem as a statistical estimation problem. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori (MAP) solutions to the estimation problem are compared with the localization behavior of a barn owl in a head turning task. 2 Observation model To define the localization problem, we must specify an observation model that describes the information the owl uses to produce a direction estimate. Neurophysiological and behavioral experiments suggest that the barn owl derives direction estimates from ILD and ITD cues that are computed at an array of frequencies [2, 7, 8]. Note that when computed as a function of frequency, the ITD is given by an interaural phase difference (IPD). Here I consider a model where the observation made by the owl is given by the ILD and IPD spectra derived from barn owl head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) after corruption with additive noise. For a source direction (?, ?), the observation vector r is expressed mathematically as       rILD ILD?,? ?ILD r= = + (1) rIPD IPD?,? ?IPD where the ILD spectrum ILD?,? = [ILD?,? (?1 ), ILD?,? (?2 ), . . . , ILD?,? (?Nf )] and the IPD spectrum IPD?,? = [IPD?,? (?1 ), IPD?,? (?2 ), . . . , IPD?,? (?Nf )] are specified at a finite number of frequencies. The ILD and IPD cues are computed directly from the HRTFs as ? R(?,?) (?)| |h ILD?,? (?) = 20 log10 (2) ? L(?,?)(?)| |h and IPD?,? (?) = ?R(?,?) (?) ? ?L(?,?) (?), ? L(?,?)(?) = |h ? L(?,?) (?)|ei?L(?,?) (?) and where the left and right HRTFs are written as h ? R(?,?) (?) = |h ? R(?,?) (?)|ei?R(?,?) (?) , respectively. h (3) The noise corrupting the ILD spectrum is modeled as a Gaussian random vector with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) components, ?ILD (?j ) ? N (0, ?). The IPD spectrum noise vector is assumed to have i.i.d. components where each element has a von Mises distribution with parameter ?. The von Mises distribution can be viewed as a 2?-periodic Gaussian distribution for large ? and is a uniform distribution for ? = 0 [9]. I assume that the ILD and IPD noise terms are mutually independent. With this noise model, the likelihood function has the form pr|?,? (r|?, ?) = prILD |?,? (rILD |?, ?)prIPD |?,? (rIPD |?, ?) (4) where the ILD likelihood function is given by Nf 1 1 X prILD |?,? (rILD |?, ?) = exp[? 2 (rILD (?j ) ? ILD?,? (?j ))2 ] 2? j=1 (2?? 2 )Nf /2 (5) and the IPD likelihood function is given by Nf prIPD |?,? (rIPD |?, ?) = X 1 exp[? cos(rIPD (?j ) ? IPD?,? (?j ))] N f (2?I0 (?)) j=1 (6) where I0 (?) is a modified Bessel function of the first kind of order 0. The likelihood function will have peaks at directions where the expected spectral cues ILD?,? and IPD?,? are near the observed values rILD and rIPD . 2 3 Model performance measure I evaluate maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori methods for estimating the source direction from the observed ILD and IPD cues by computing an expected localization error and comparing the results to an owl?s behavior. The performance of each estimation procedure at a given source ? ? ?| + |?(r) ? ? ?| | ?, ?]. This direction is quantified by the expected absolute angular error E[|?(r) measure of estimation error is directly compared to the behavioral performance of a barn owl in a head turning localization task [1]. The expected absolute angular error is approximated through Monte Carlo simulation as ? ? ?| + |?(r) ? ? ?| | ?, ?] ? ?({|?(r ? i ) ? ?|}N ) + ?({|?(r ? i ) ? ?|}N ) E[|?(r) (7) i=1 i=1 where the ri are drawn from pr|?,? (r|?, ?) and ?({?i }N i=1 ) is the circular mean of the angles N {?i }i=1 . The error is computed using HRTFs for two barn owls [10] and is calculated for directions in the frontal hemisphere with 5? increments in azimuth and elevation, as defined using double polar coordinates. 4 Maximum likelihood estimate The maximum likelihood direction estimate is derived from the observed noisy ILD and IPD cues by finding the source direction that maximizes the likelihood function, yielding (??ML (r), ??ML (r)) = arg max pr|?,? (r|?, ?). (8) (?,?) This procedure amounts to a spectral cue matching operation. Each direction in space is associated with a particular ILD and IPD spectrum, as derived from the HRTFs. The direction with associated cues that are closest to the observed cues is designated as the estimate. This estimator is of particular interest because of the claim that salience in the neural map of auditory space in the barn owl can be described by a spectral cue matching operation [3, 4, 6]. The maximum likelihood estimator was unable to reproduce the owl?s localization behavior. The performance of the maximum likelihood estimator depends on the two likelihood function parameters ? and ?, which determine the ILD and IPD noise variances, respectively. For noise variances large enough that the error increased at peripheral directions, in accordance with the barn owl?s behavior, the error also increased significantly for directions near the center of the interaural coordinate system (Figure 1). This pattern of error as a function of eccentricity, with a large central peak, is not consistent with the performance of the barn owl in the head turning task [1]. Additionally, directions near the center of gaze were often confused with directions in the periphery leading to a high variability in the direction estimates, which is not seen in the owl?s behavior. 5 Maximum a posteriori estimate In the Bayesian framework, the direction estimate depends on both the likelihood function and the prior distribution over source directions through the posterior distribution. Using Bayes? rule, the posterior density is proportional to the product of the likelihood function and the prior, p?,?|r (?, ?|r) ? pr|?,? (r|?, ?)p?,? (?, ?). (9) The prior distribution is used to summarize the owl?s belief about the most likely source directions before an observation of ILD and IPD cues is made. Based on the barn owl?s tendency to underestimate source directions [1], I use a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze. The prior is given by a product of two one-dimensional von Mises distributions, yielding the probability density function exp[?1 cos(?) + ?2 cos(?)] (10) p?,? (?, ?) = (2?)2 I0 (?1 )I0 (?2 ) where I0 (?) is a modified Bessel function of the first kind of order 0. The maximum a posteriori source direction estimate is computed for a given observation by finding the source direction that maximizes the posterior density, yielding (??MAP (r), ??MAP (r)) = arg max p?,?|r (?, ?|r). (11) (?,?) 3 Figure 1: Estimation error in the model for the maximum likelihood (ML) and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates. HRTFs were used from owls 884 (top) and 880 (bottom). Left column: Estimation error at 685 locations in the frontal hemisphere plotted in double polar coordinates. Center column: Estimation error on the horizontal plane along with the estimation error of a barn owl in a head turning task [1]. Right column: Estimation error on the vertical plane along with the estimation error of a barn owl in a head turning task. Note that each plot uses a unique scale. 4 Figure 2: Estimates for the MAP estimator on the horizontal plane (left) and the vertical plane (right) using HRTFs from owl 880. The box extends from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the sample. The solid line is the identity line. Like the owl, the MAP estimator underestimates the source direction. In the MAP case, the estimate depends on spectral matching of observations with expected cues for each direction, but with a penalty on the selection of peripheral directions. It was possible to find a MAP estimator that was consistent with the owl?s localization behavior (Figures 1,2). For the example MAP estimators shown in Figures 1 and 2, the error was smallest in the central region of space and increased at the periphery. The largest errors occurred at the vertical extremes. This pattern of error qualitatively matches the pattern of error displayed by the owl in a head turning localization task [1]. The parameters that produced a behaviorally consistent MAP estimator correspond to a likelihood and prior with large variances. For the estimators shown in Figure 1, the likelihood function parameters were given by ? = 11.5 dB and ? = 0.75 for owl 880 and ? = 10.75 dB and ? = 0.8 for owl 884. For comparison, the range of ILD values normally experienced by the barn owl falls between ? 30 dB [10]. The prior parameters correspond to an azimuthal width parameter ?1 of 0.25 for owl 880 and 0.2 for owl 884 and an elevational width parameter ?2 of 0.25 for owl 880 and 0.18 for owl 884. The implication of this model for implementation in the owl?s auditory system is that the spectral localization cues ILD and IPD do not need to be computed with great accuracy and the emphasis on central directions does not need to be large in order to produce the barn owl?s behavior. 6 Discussion 6.1 A new approach to modeling sound localization in the barn owl The simulation results show that the maximum likelihood model considered here can not reproduce the owl?s behavior, while the maximum a posteriori solution is able to match the behavior. This result suggests that the standard spectral matching model will not be sufficient to explain sound localization behavior in the barn owl. Previously, suggestions have been made that sound localization by the barn owl can be described using the Bayesian framework [11, 12], but no specific models have been proposed. This paper demonstrates that a Bayesian model can qualitatively match the owl?s localization behavior. The Bayesian approach described here provides a new framework for analyzing sound localization in the owl. 6.2 Failure of the maximum likelihood model The maximum likelihood model fails because of the nature of spatial ambiguity in the ILD and IPD cues. The existence of spatial ambiguity has been noted in previous descriptions of barn owl HRTFs [3, 10, 13]. As expected, directions near each other have similar cues. In addition to sim5 ilarity of cues between proximal directions, distant directions can have similar ILD and IPD cues. Most significantly, there is a similarity between the ILD and IPD cues at the center of gaze and at peripheral directions on the vertical plane. The consequence of such ambiguity between distant directions is that noise in measuring localization cues can lead to large errors in direction estimation, as seen in the ML estimate. The results of the simulations suggest that a behaviorally accurate solution to the sound localization problem must include a mechanism that chooses between disparate directions which are associated with similar localization cues in such a way as to limit errors for source directions near the center of gaze. This work shows that a possible mechanism for choosing between such directions is to incorporate a bias towards directions at the center of gaze through a prior distribution and utilize the Bayesian estimation framework. The use of a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze is similar to the use of central weighting functions in models of human lateralization [14]. 6.3 Predictions of the Bayesian model The MAP estimator predicts the underestimation of peripheral source directions on the horizontal and vertical planes (Figure 2). The pattern of error displayed by the MAP estimator qualitatively matches the owl?s behavioral performance by showing increasing error as a function of eccentricity. Our evaluation of the model performance is limited, however, because there is little behavioral data for directions outside ? 70 deg [15,16]. For the owl whose performance is displayed in Figure 1, the largest errors on the vertical and horizontal planes were less than 20 deg and 11 deg, respectively. The model produces much larger errors for directions beyond 70 deg, especially on the vertical plane. The large errors in elevation result from the ambiguity in the localization cues on the vertical plane and the shape of the prior distribution. As discussed above, for broadband noise stimuli, there is a similarity between the ILD and IPD cues for central and peripheral directions on the vertical plane [3, 10, 13]. The presence of a prior distribution that emphasizes central directions causes direction estimates for both central and peripheral directions to be concentrated near zero deg. Therefore, estimation errors are minimal for sources at the center of gaze, but approach the magnitude of the source direction for peripheral source directions. Behavioral data shows that localization accuracy is the greatest near the center of gaze [1], but there is no data for localization performance at the most eccentric directions on the vertical plane. Further behavioral experiments must be performed to determine if the owl?s error increases greatly at the most peripheral directions. There is a significant spatial ambiguity in the localization cues when target sounds are narrowband. It is well known that spatial ambiguity arises from the way that interaural time differences are processed at each frequency [17?19]. The owl measures the interaural time difference for each frequency of the input sound as an interaural phase difference. Therefore, multiple directions in space that differ in their associated interaural time difference by the period of a tone at that frequency are consistent with the same interaural phase difference and can not be distinguished. Behavioral experiments show that the owl may localize a phantom source in the horizontal dimension when the signal is a tone [20]. Based on the presence of a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze, I predict that for low frequency tones where phase equivalent directions lie near the center of gaze and at directions greater than 80 deg, confusion will always lead to an estimate of a source direction near zero degrees. This prediction can not be evaluated from available data because localization of tonal signals has only been systematically studied using 5 kHz tones with target directions at ? 20 deg [19]. Because the prior is broad, the target direction of ? 20 deg and the phantom direction of ? 50 deg may both be considered central. The ILD cue also displays a significant ambiguity at high frequencies. At frequencies above 7 kHz, the ILD is non-monotonically related to the vertical position of a sound source [3, 10] (Figure 3). Therefore, for narrowband sounds, the owl can not uniquely determine the direction of a sound source from the ITD and ILD cues. I predict that for tonal signals above 7 kHz, there will be multiple directions on the vertical plane that are confused with directions near zero deg. I predict that confusion between source directions near zero deg and eccentric directions will always lead to estimates of directions near zero deg. There is no available data to evaluate this prediction. 6 Figure 3: Model predictions for localization of tones on the vertical plane. (A) ILD as a function of elevation at 8 kHz, computed from HRTFs of owl 880 recorded by Keller et al. (1998). (B) Given an ILD of 0 dB, a likelihood function (dots) based on matching cues to expected values would be multimodal with three equal peaks. If the target is at any of the three directions, there will be large localization errors because of confusion with the other directions. If a prior emphasizing frontal space (dashed) is included, a posterior density equal to the product of the likelihood and the prior would have a main peak at 0 deg elevation. Using a maximum a posteriori estimate, large errors would be made if the target is above or below. However, few errors would be observed when the target is near 0 deg. 6.4 Testing the Bayesian model Further head turning localization experiments with barn owls must be performed to test predictions generated by the Bayesian hypothesis and to provide constraints on a model of sound localization. Experiments should test the localization accuracy of the owl for broadband noise sources and tonal signals at directions covering the frontal hemisphere. The Bayesian model will be supported if, first, localization accuracy is high for both tonal and broadband noise sources near the center of gaze and, second, peripherally located sources are confused for targets near the center of gaze, leading to large localization errors. Additionally, a Bayesian model should be fit to the data, including points away from the horizontal and vertical planes, using a nonparametric prior [21, 22]. While the model presented here, using a von Mises prior, qualitatively matches the performance of the owl, the performance of the Bayesian model may be improved by removing assumptions about the structure of the prior distribution. 6.5 Implications for neural processing The analysis presented here does not directly address the neural implementation of the solution to the localization problem. However, our abstract analysis of the sound localization problem has implications for neural processing. Several models exist that reproduce the basic properties of ILD, ITD, and space selectivity in ICx and OT neurons using a spectral matching procedure [3, 5, 6]. These results suggest that a Bayesian model is not necessary to describe the responses of individual ICx and OT neurons. It may be necessary to look in the brainstem motor targets of the optic tectum to find neurons that resolve the ambiguity present in sound stimuli and show responses that reflect the MAP solution. This implies that the prior distribution is not employed until the final stage of processing. The prior may correspond to the distribution of best directions of space-specific neurons in ICx and OT, which emphasizes directions near the center of gaze [23]. 6.6 Conclusion This analysis supports the Bayesian model of the barn owl?s solution to the localization problem over the maximum likelihood model. This result suggests that the standard spectral matching model will not be sufficient to explain sound localization behavior in the barn owl. The Bayesian model 7 provides a new framework for analyzing sound localization in the owl. The simulation results using the MAP estimator lead to testable predictions that can be used to evaluate the Bayesian model of sound localization in the barn owl. Acknowledgments I thank Kip Keller, Klaus Hartung, and Terry Takahashi for providing the head-related transfer functions and Mark Konishi and Jos?e Luis Pe?na for comments and support. References [1] E.I. Knudsen, G.G. Blasdel, and M. Konishi. Sound localization by the barn owl (Tyto alba) measured with the search coil technique. J. Comp. Physiol., 133:1?11, 1979. [2] M. Konishi. Coding of auditory space. Annu. Rev. Neurosci., 26:31?55, 2003. [3] M.S. Brainard, E.I. Knudsen, and S.D. Esterly. Neural derivation of sound source location: Resolution of spatial ambiguities in binaural cues. J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 91(2):1015?1027, 1992. [4] B.J. Arthur. Neural computations leading to space-specific auditory responses in the barn owl. Ph.D. thesis, Caltech, 2001. [5] B.J. Fischer. A model of the computations leading to a representation of auditory space in the midbrain of the barn owl. D.Sc. thesis, Washington University in St. Louis, 2005. [6] C.H. Keller and T.T. Takahashi. Localization and identification of concurrent sounds in the owl?s auditory space map. J. Neurosci., 25:10446?10461, 2005. [7] I. Poganiatz and H. Wagner. Sound-localization experiments with barn owls in virtual space: influence of broadband interaural level difference on head-turning behavior. J. Comp. Physiol. A, 187:225?233, 2001. [8] D.R. Euston and T.T. Takahashi. From spectrum to space: The contribution of level difference cues to spatial receptive fields in the barn owl inferior colliculus. J. Neurosci., 22(1):284?293, Jan. 2002. [9] Evans M., Hastings N., and Peacock B. von Mises Distribution. In Statistical Distributions, 3rd ed., pages 189?191. Wiley, New York, 2000. [10] C.H. Keller, K. Hartung, and T.T. Takahashi. Head-related transfer functions of the barn owl: measurement and neural responses. Hearing Research, 118:13?34, 1998. [11] R.O. Duda. Elevation dependence of the interaural transfer function, chapter 3 in Binaural and Spatial Hearing in Real and Virtual Environments, pages 49?75. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1997. [12] Witten I.B. and Knudsen E.I. Why seeing is believing: Merging auditory and visual worlds. Neuron, 48:489?496, 2005. [13] J.F Olsen, E.I. Knudsen, and S.D. Esterly. Neural maps of interaural time and intensity differences in the optic tectum of the barn owl. J. Neurosci., 9:2591?2605, 1989. [14] R.M. Stern and H.S. Colburn. Theory of binaural interaction based on auditory-nerve data. IV. A model for subjective lateral position. J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 64:127?140, 1978. [15] H. Wagner. Sound-localization deficits induced by lesions in the barn owl?s auditory space map. J. Neurosci., 13:371?386, 1993. [16] I. Poganiatz, I. Nelken, and H. Wagner. Sound-localization experiments with barn owls in virtual space: influence of interaural time difference on head-turning behavior. J. Ass. Res. Otolarnyg., 2:1?21, 2001. [17] T. Takahashi and M. Konishi. Selectivity for interaural time difference in the owl?s midbrain. J. Neurosci., 6(12):3413?3422, 1986. [18] J.A. Mazer. How the owl resolves auditory coding ambiguity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 95:10932? 10937, 1998. [19] K. Saberi, Y. Takahashi, H. Farahbod, and M. Konishi. Neural bases of an auditory illusion and its elimination in owls. Nature Neurosci., 2(7):656?659, 1999. [20] E.I. Knudsen and M. Konishi. Mechanisms of sound localization in the barn owl (Tyto alba) measured with the search coil technique. J. Comp. Phys. A, (133):13?21, 1979. [21] Liam Paninski. Nonparametric inference of prior probabilities from Bayes-optimal behavior. In Y. Weiss, B. Sch?olkopf, and J. Platt, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 18, pages 1067? 1074. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2006. [22] Stocker A.A. and Simoncelli E.P. Noise characteristics and prior expectations in human visual speed perception. Nature Neurosci., 9(4):578?585, 2006. [23] E.I. Knudsen and M. Konishi. A neural map of auditory space in the owl. Science, 200:795?797, 1978. 8
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Learning Monotonic Transformations for Classification Andrew G. Howard Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Tony Jebara Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, NY 10027 [email protected] Abstract A discriminative method is proposed for learning monotonic transformations of the training data while jointly estimating a large-margin classifier. In many domains such as document classification, image histogram classification and gene microarray experiments, fixed monotonic transformations can be useful as a preprocessing step. However, most classifiers only explore these transformations through manual trial and error or via prior domain knowledge. The proposed method learns monotonic transformations automatically while training a large-margin classifier without any prior knowledge of the domain. A monotonic piecewise linear function is learned which transforms data for subsequent processing by a linear hyperplane classifier. Two algorithmic implementations of the method are formalized. The first solves a convergent alternating sequence of quadratic and linear programs until it obtains a locally optimal solution. An improved algorithm is then derived using a convex semidefinite relaxation that overcomes initialization issues in the greedy optimization problem. The effectiveness of these learned transformations on synthetic problems, text data and image data is demonstrated. 1 Introduction Many fields have developed heuristic methods for preprocessing data to improve performance. This often takes the form of applying a monotonic transformation prior to using a classification algorithm. For example, when the bag of words representation is used in document classification, it is common to take the square root of the term frequency [6, 5]. Monotonic transforms are also used when classifying image histograms. In [3], transformations of the form xa where 0 ? a ? 1 are demonstrated to improve performance. When classifying genes from various microarray experiments it is common to take the logarithm of the gene expression ratio [2]. Monotonic transformations can also capture crucial properties of the data such as threshold and saturation effects. In this paper, we propose to simultaneously learn a hyperplane classifier and a monotonic transformation. The solution produced by our algorithm is a piecewise linear monotonic function and a maximum margin hyperplane classifier similar to a support vector machine (SVM) [4]. By allowing for a richer class of transforms learned at training time (as opposed to a rule of thumb applied during preprocessing), we improve classification accuracy. The learned transform is specifically tuned to the classification task. The main contributions of this paper include, a novel framework for estimating a monotonic transformation and a hyperplane classifier simultaneously at training time, an efficient method for finding a xn ,1 w1 xn ,2 yn w2 wD xn , D b Figure 1: Monotonic transform applied to each dimension followed by a hyperplane classifier. locally optimal solution to the problem, and a convex relaxation to find a globally optimal approximate solution. The paper is organized as follows. In section 2, we present our formulation for learning a piecewise linear monotonic function and a hyperplane. We show how to learn this combined model through an iterative coordinate ascent optimization using interleaved quadratic and linear programs to find a local minimum. In section 3, we derive a convex relaxation based on Lasserre?s method [8]. In section 4 synthetic experiments as well as document and image classification problems demonstrate the diverse utility of our method. We conclude with a discussion and future work. 2 Learning Monotonic Transformations For an unknown distribution P (~x, y) over inputs ~x ? <d and labels y ? {?1, 1}, we assume that there is an unknown nuisance monotonic transformation ?(x) and unknown hyperplane parameterized by w ~ and Rb such that predicting with f (x) = sign(w ~ T ?(~x) + b) yields a low expected test error R = 21 |y ? f (x)|dP (~x, y). We would like to recover ?(~x), w, ~ b from a labeled training set S = {(~x1 , y1 ), . . . , (~xN , yN )} which is sampled i.i.d. from P (~x, y). The transformation acts elementwise as can be seen in Figure 1. We propose to learn both a maximum margin hyperplane and the unknown transform ?(x) simultaneously. In our formulation, ?(x) is a piecewise linear function that we parameterize with a set of K knots {z1 , . . . , zK } and associated positive weights {m1 , . . . , mK } where P zj ? < and mj ? <+ . The transformation can be written as ?(x) = K j=1 mj ?j (x) where ?j (x) are truncated ramp functions acting on vectors and matrices elementwise as follows: ?j (x) = ? ? 0 x?zj zj+1 ?zj ? 1 x ? zj zj < x < zj+1 zj+1 ? x (1) This is a less common way to parameterize piecewise linear functions. The positivity constraints enforce monotonicity on ?(x) for all x. A more common method is to parameterize the function value ?(z) at each knot z and apply order constraints between subsequent knots to enforce monotonicity. Values in between knots are found through linear interpolation. This is the method used in isotonic regression [10], but in practice, these are equivalent formulations. Using truncated ramp functions is preferable for numerous reasons. They can be easily precomputed and are sparse. Once precomputed, most calculations can be done via sparse matrix multiplications. The positivity constraints on the weights m ~ will also yield a simpler formulation than order constraints and interpolation which becomes important in subsequent relaxation steps. Figure 2a shows the truncated ramp function associated with knot z1 . Figure 2b shows a conic combination of truncated ramps that builds a piecewise linear monotonic function. Combining this with the support vector machine formulation leads us to the following learning problem: m1+m2+m3+m4+m5 1 0.8 m1+m2+m3+m4 0.6 m1+m2+m3 0.4 m1+m2 0.2 0 z1 m1 z1 z2 a) Truncated ramp function ?1 (x). z2 z3 b) ?(x) = z4 P5 j=1 z5 mj ?j (x). Figure 2: Building blocks for piecewise linear functions. min ~ m w, ~ ?,b, ~ subject to kwk ~ 22 + C N X (2) ?i i=1 ?* yi ? w, ~ K X mj ?j (x~i ) j=1 ?i ? 0, mj ? 0, X + ? + b? ? 1 ? ?i ?i mj ? 1 ?i, j j where ?~ are the standard SVM slack variables, w ~ and b are the maximum margin solution for the training set that has been transformed via ?(x) with learned weights m. ~ Before training, the knot locations are chosen at the empirical quantiles so that they are evenly spaced in the data. This problem is nonconvex due to the quadratic term involving w ~ and m ~ in the classification constraints. Although it is difficult to find a globally optimal solution, the structure of the problem suggests a simple method for finding a locally optimal solution. We can divide the problem into two convex subproblems. This amounts to solving a support vector machine for w ~ and b with a fixed ?(x) and alternatively solving for ?(x) as a linear program with the SVM solution fixed. In both subproblems, we optimize over ?~ as it is part of the hinge loss. This yields an efficient convergent optimization method. However, this method can get stuck in local minima. In practice, we initialize it with a linear ?(x) and iterate from there. Alternative initializations do not yield much help. This leads us to look for a method to efficiently find global solutions. 3 Convex Relaxation When faced with a nonconvex quadratic problem, an increasingly popular technique is to relax it into a convex one. Lasserre [8] proposed a sequence of convex relaxations for these types of nonconvex quadratic programs. This method replaces all quadratic terms in the original optimization problem with entries in a matrix. In its simplest form this matrix corresponds to the outer product of the the original variables with rank one and semidefinite constraints. The relaxation comes from dropping the rank one constraint on the outer product matrix. Lasserre proposed more elaborate relaxations using higher order moments of the variables. However, we mainly use the first moment relaxation along with a few of the second order moment constraints that do not require any additional variables beyond the outer product matrix. A convex relaxation could be derived directly from the primal formulation of our problem. Both w ~ and m ~ would be relaxed as they interact in the nonconvex quadratic terms. Un- fortunately, this yields a semidefinite constraint that scales with both the number of knots and the dimensionality of the data. This is troublesome because we wish to work with high dimensional data such as a bag of words representation for text. However, if we first find ~ we only have to relax m the dual formulation for w, ~ b, and ?, ~ which yields both a tighter relaxation and a less computationally intensive problem. Finding the dual leaves us with the following min max saddle point problem that will be subsequently relaxed and transformed into a semidefinite program: ? ? ~ T ?Y ? 2~ ?T ~1 ? ? min max m ~ ? ~ X i,j ? ? mi mj ?i (X)T ?j (X)? Y ? ? ~ 0 ? ?i ? C, ? ~ T ~y = 0, mj ? 0, X (3) mj ? 1 ?i, j j where ~1 is a vector of ones, ~y is a vector of the labels, Y = diag(~y ) is a matrix with the labels on its diagonal with zeros elsewhere, and X is a matrix with ~xi in the ith column. We introduce the relaxation via the substitution M = m ?m ? T and constraint M  0 where m ? is constructed by concatenating 1 with m. ~ We can then transform the relaxed min max problem into a semidefinite program similar to the multiple kernel learning framework [7] by finding the dual with respect to ? ~ and using the Schur complement lemma to generate a linear matrix inequality [1]: min M,t,?,~ ? ,~ ? subject to (4) t P Y i,j Mi,j ?i (X)T ?j (X)Y (~1 + ~? ? ~? + ?~y )T ~1 + ~? ? ~? + ?~y t ? 2C ~?T ~1 ! 0 M  0, M ? 0, M ? 1 ? ~0, M0,0 = 1, ~? ? ~0, ~? ? ~0 where ~0 is a vector of zeros and ? 1 is a vector with ?1 in the first dimension and ones in the rest. The variables ?, ~? , ~? arise from the dual transformation. This relaxation is exact if M is a rank one matrix. The above can be seen as a generalization of the multiple kernel learning framework. Instead of learning a kernel from a combination of kernels, we are learning a combination of inner products of different functions applied to our data. In our case, these are truncated ramp functions. The terms ?i (X)T ?j (X) are not Mercer kernels except when i = j. This more general combination requires the stricter constraints that the mixing weights M form a positive semidefinite matrix, a constraint whichPis introduced via the relaxation. This is T a sufficient condition for the resulting matrix i,j Mi,j ?i (X) ?j (X) to also be positive semidefinite. When using this relaxation, we can recover the monotonic transform by using the first column (row) as the mixing weights, m, ~ of the truncated ramp P functions. In practice, however, we use the learned kernel in our predictions k(~x, ~x0 ) = i,j Mi,j ?i (~x)T ?j (~x0 ). 4 4.1 Experiments Synthetic Experiment In this experiment we will demonstrate our method?s ability to recover a monotonic transformation from data. We sampled data near a linear decision boundary and generated labels based on this boundary. We then applied a strictly monotonic function to this sampled data. The training set is made up of the transformed points and the original labels. A linear algorithm will have difficulty because the mapped data is not linearly separable. However, 1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 a) 0.6 0.8 1 0 0 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 d) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 g) 0 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 f) 1 0.1 0 e) 1 0 0.8 0.1 0 1 0 0.6 c) 1 0 0.4 b) 1 0 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 h) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 i) Figure 3: a) Original data. b) Data transformed by a logarithm. c) Data transformed by a quadratic function. d-f) The transformation functions learned using the nonconvex algorithm. g-i) The transformation functions learned using the convex algorithm. if we could recover the inverse monotonic function, then a linear decision boundary would perform well. Figure 3a shows the original data and decision boundary. Figure 3b shows the data and hyperplane transformed with a normalized logarithm. Figure 3c depicts a quadratic transform. 600 data points were sampled, and then transformed. 200 were used for training, 200 for cross validation and 200 for testing. We compared our locally optimal method (L mono), our convex relaxation (C mono) and a linear SVM (linear). The linear SVM struggled on all of the transformed data while the other methods performed well as reported in Figure 4. The learned transforms for L mono are plotted in Figure 3(d-f). The solid blue line is the mean over 10 experiments, and the dashed blue is the standard deviation. The black line is the true target function. The learned functions for C mono are in Figure 3(g-i). Both algorithms performed quite well on the task of classification and recover nearly the exact monotonic transform. The local method outperformed the relaxation slightly because this was an easy problem with few local minima. 4.2 Document Classification In this experiment we used the four universities WebKB dataset. The data is made up of web pages from four universities plus an additional larger set from miscellaneous universities. Linear L Mono C Mono linear 0.0005 0.0020 0.0025 exponential 0.0375 0.0005 0.0075 square root 0.0685 0.0020 0.0025 total 0.0355 0.0015 0.0042 Figure 4: Testing error rates for the synthetic experiments. Linear TFIDF Sqrt Poly RBF L Mono C Mono 1 vs 2 0.0509 0.0428 0.0363 0.0499 0.0514 0.0338 0.0322 1 vs 3 0.0879 0.0891 0.0667 0.0861 0.0836 0.0739 0.0776 1 vs 4 0.1381 0.1623 0.0996 0.1389 0.1356 0.0854 0.0812 2 vs 3 0.0653 0.0486 0.0456 0.0599 0.0641 0.0511 0.0501 2 vs 4 0.1755 0.1910 0.1153 0.1750 0.1755 0.1060 0.0973 3 vs 4 0.0941 0.1096 0.0674 0.0950 0.0981 0.0602 0.0584 total 0.1025 0.1059 0.0711 0.1009 0.1024 0.0683 0.0657 Figure 5: Testing error rates for WebKB. These web pages are then categorized. We will be working with the largest four categories: student, faculty, course, and project. The task is to solve all six pairwise classification problems. In [6, 5] preprocessing the data with a square root was demonstrated to yield good results. We will compare our nonconvex method (L mono), and our convex relaxation (C mono) to a linear SVM with and without the square root, with TFIDF features and also a kernelized SVM with both the polynomial kernel and the RBF kernel. We will follow the setup of [6] by training on three universities and the miscellaneous university set and testing on web pages from the fourth university. We repeated this four fold experiment five times. For each fold, we use a subset of 200 points for training, 200 to cross validate the parameter settings, and all of the fourth university?s points for testing. Our two methods outperform the competition on average as reported in Figure 5. The convex relaxation chooses a step function nearly every time. This outputs a 1 if a word is in the training vector and 0 if it is absent. The nonconvex greedy algorithm does not end up recovering this solution as reliably and seems to get stuck in local minima. This leads to slightly worse performance than the convex version. 4.3 Image Histogram Classification In this experiment, we used the Corel image dataset. In [3], it was shown that monotonic transforms of the form xa for 0 ? a ? 1 worked well. The Corel image dataset is made up of various categories, each containing 100 images. We chose four categories of animals: 1) eagles, 2) elephants, 3) horses, and 4) tigers. Images were transformed into RGB histograms following the binning strategy of [3, 5]. We ran a series of six pairwise experiments where the data was randomly split into 80 percent training, 10 percent cross validation, and 10 percent testing. These six experiments were repeated 10 times. We compared our two methods to a linear support vector machine, as well as an SVM with RBF and polynomial kernels. We also compared to the set of transforms xa for 0 ? a ? 1 where we cross validated over a = {0, .125, .25, .5, .625, .75, .875, 1}. This set includes linear a = 1 at one end, a binary threshold a = 0 at the other (choosing 00 = 0), and the square root transform in the middle. The convex relaxation performed best or tied for best on 4 out 6 of the experiments and was the best overall as reported in Figure 6. The nonconvex version also performed well but ended up with a lower accuracy than the cross validated family of xa transforms. The key to this dataset is that most of the data is very close to zero due to few pixels being in a given bin. Cross validation over xa most often chose low nonzero a values. Our method had many knots in these extremely low values because that was where the data support was. Plots of our learned functions on these small values can be found in Figure 7(a-f). Solid blue is the mean for the nonconvex algorithm and dashed blue is the standard deviation. Similarly, the convex relaxation is in red. Linear Sqrt Poly RBF xa L Mono C Mono 1 vs 2 0.08 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.05 0.04 1 vs 3 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.03 1 vs 4 0.28 0.09 0.28 0.22 0.03 0.04 0.03 2 vs 3 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.03 0.05 0.04 2 vs 4 0.14 0.08 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.06 3 vs 4 0.26 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.06 0.05 0.05 total 0.1617 0.0950 0.1567 0.1367 0.0550 0.0633 0.0417 Figure 6: Testing error rates on Corel dataset. 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 ?0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 ?0.2 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 ?3 2 ?0.2 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 1 1.5 2 ?3 x 10 1.5 ?0.2 2 ?3 0.8 0.5 1 x 10 1 0 0.5 x 10 0.8 ?0.2 0 ?3 x 10 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 ?0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 ?3 x 10 2 ?3 x 10 Figure 7: The learned transformation functions for 6 Corel problems. 4.4 Gender classification In this experiment we try to differentiate between images of males and females. We have 1755 labelled images from the FERET dataset processed as in [9]. Each processed image is a 21 by 12 pixel 256 color gray scale image that is rastorized to form training vectors. There are 1044 male images and 711 female images. We randomly split the data into 80 percent training, 10 percent cross validation, and and 10 percent testing. We then compare a linear SVM to our two methods on 5 random splits of the data. The learned monotonic function from L Mono and C Mono are similar to a sigmoid function which indicates that useful saturation and threshold effects where uncovered by our methods. Figure 8a shows examples of training images before and after they have been transformed by our learned function. Figure 8b summarizes the results. Our learned transformation outperforms the linear SVM with the convex relaxation performing best. 5 Discussion A data driven framework was presented for jointly learning monotonic transformations of input data and a discriminative linear classifier. The joint optimization improves classification accuracy and produces interesting transformations that otherwise would require a priori domain knowledge. Two implementations were discussed. The first is a fast greedy algorithm for finding a locally optimal solution. Subsequently, a semidefinite relaxation of the original problem was presented which does not suffer from local minima. The greedy algorithm has similar scaling properties as a support vector machine yet has local minima to contend with. The semidefinite relaxation is more computationally intensive yet ensures a reliable global solution. Nevertheless, both implementations were helpful in synthetic and real experiments including text and image classification and improved over standard support vector machine tools. Algorithm Linear L Mono C Mono a) Error .0909 .0818 .0648 b) Figure 8: a) Original and transformed gender images. b) Error rates for gender classification. A natural next step is to explore faster (convex) algorithms that take advantage of the specific structure of the problem. These faster algorithms will help us explore extensions such as learning transformations across multiple tasks. We also hope to explore applications to other domains such as gene expression data to refine the current logarithmic transforms necessary to compensate for well-known saturation effects in expression level measurements. We are also interested in looking at fMRI and audio data where monotonic transformations are useful. 6 Acknowledgements This work was supported in part by NSF Award IIS-0347499 and ONR Award N000140710507. References [1] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. [2] M. Brown, W. Grundy, D. Lin, N. Christianini, C. Sugnet, M. Jr, and D. Haussler. Support vector machine classification of microarray gene expression data, 1999. [3] O. Chapelle, P. Hafner, and V.N. Vapnik. Support vector machines for histogram-based classification. Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on, 10:1055?1064, 1999. [4] C. Cortes and V. Vapnik. Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, 20(3):273?297, 1995. [5] M. Hein and O. Bousquet. Hilbertian metrics and positive definite kernels on probability measures. In Proceedings of Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2005. [6] T. Jebara, R. Kondor, and A. Howard. Probability product kernels. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:819?844, 2004. [7] G. Lanckriet, N. Cristianini, P. Bartlett, L. El Ghaoui, and M. I. Jordan. Learning the kernel matrix with semidefinite programming. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:27?72, 2004. [8] J.B. Lasserre. Convergent LMI relaxations for nonconvex quadratic programs. In Proceedings of 39th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2000. [9] B. Moghaddam and M.H. Yang. Sex with support vector machines. In Todd K. Leen, Thomas G. Dietterich, and Volker Tresp, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing 13, pages 960?966. MIT Press, 2000. [10] T. Robertson, F.T. Wright, and R.L. Dykstra. Order Restricted Statistical Inference. Wiley, 1988.
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Agreement-Based Learning Percy Liang Computer Science Division University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 Dan Klein Computer Science Division University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 Michael I. Jordan Computer Science Division University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract The learning of probabilistic models with many hidden variables and nondecomposable dependencies is an important and challenging problem. In contrast to traditional approaches based on approximate inference in a single intractable model, our approach is to train a set of tractable submodels by encouraging them to agree on the hidden variables. This allows us to capture non-decomposable aspects of the data while still maintaining tractability. We propose an objective function for our approach, derive EM-style algorithms for parameter estimation, and demonstrate their effectiveness on three challenging real-world learning tasks. 1 Introduction Many problems in natural language, vision, and computational biology require the joint modeling of many dependent variables. Such models often include hidden variables, which play an important role in unsupervised learning and general missing data problems. The focus of this paper is on models in which the hidden variables have natural problem domain interpretations and are the object of inference. Standard approaches for learning hidden-variable models involve integrating out the hidden variables and working with the resulting marginal likelihood. However, this marginalization can be intractable. An alternative is to develop procedures that merge the inference results of several tractable submodels. An early example of such an approach is the use of pseudolikelihood [1], which deals with many conditional models of single variables rather than a single joint model. More generally, composite likelihood permits a combination of the likelihoods of subsets of variables [7]. Another approach is piecewise training [10, 11], which has been applied successfully to several large-scale learning problems. All of the above methods, however, focus on fully-observed models. In the current paper, we develop techniques in this spirit that work for hidden-variable models. The basic idea of our approach is to create several tractable submodels and train them jointly to agree on their hidden variables. We present an intuitive objective function and efficient EM-style algorithms for training a collection of submodels. We refer to this general approach as agreement-based learning. Sections 2 and 3 presents the general theory for agreement-based learning. In some applications, it is infeasible computationally to optimize the objective function; Section 4 provides two alternative objectives that lead to tractable algorithms. Section 5 demonstrates that our methods can be applied successfully to large datasets in three real world problem domains?grammar induction, word alignment, and phylogenetic hidden Markov modeling. 1 2 Agreement-based learning of multiple submodels Assume we have M (sub)models pm (x, z; ?m ), m = 1, . . . , M , where each submodel specifies a distribution over the observed data x ? X and some hidden state z ? Z. The submodels could be parameterized in completely different ways as long as they are defined on the common event space X ? Z. Intuitively, each submodel should capture a different aspect of the data in a tractable way. To learn these submodels, the simplest approach is to train them independently by maximizing the sum of their log-likelihoods: YX X def Oindep (?) = log pm (x, z; ?m ) = log pm (x; ?m ), (1) m z m P where ? = (?1 , . . . , ?M ) is the collective set of parameters and pm (x; ?m ) = z pm (x, z; ?m ) 1 is the likelihood under submodel pm . Given an input x, we can then produce an output z by combining the posteriors pm (z | x; ?m ) of the trained submodels. If we view each submodel as trying to solve the same task of producing the desired posterior over z, then it seems advantageous to train the submodels jointly to encourage ?agreement on z.? We propose the following objective which realizes this insight: XY X XY def Oagree (?) = log pm (x, z; ?m ) = log pm (x; ?m ) + log pm (z | x; ?m ). (2) z m m z m The last term rewards parameter values ? for which the submodels assign probability mass to the same z (conditioned on x); the summation over z reflects the fact that we do not know what z is. Oagree has a natural probabilistic interpretation. Imagine defining a joint distribution over M independent copies over the data and hidden state, (x1 , z1 ), . . .Q , (xM , zM ), which are each generated by a different submodel: p((x1 , z1 ), . . . , (xM , zM ); ?) = m p(xm , zm ; ?m ). Then Oagree is the probability that the submodels all generate the same observed data x and the same hidden state: p(x1 = ? ? ? = xM = x, z1 = ? ? ? = zM ; ?). Oagree is also related to the likelihood of a proper probabilistic model pnorm , obtained by normalizing the product of the submodels, as is done in [3]. Our objective Oagree is then a lower bound on the likelihood under pnorm : P Q P Q pm (x, z; ?m ) def z Qm pm (x, z; ?m ) pnorm (x; ?) = P ? Qz Pm = Oagree (?). (3) pm (x, z; ?m ) pm (x, z; ?m ) x,z m m x,z The inequality holds because the denominator of the lower bound contains additional cross terms. The bound is generally loose, but becomes tighter as each pm becomes more deterministic. Note that pnorm is distinct from the product-of-experts model Q[3],Pin which each ?expert? model pm has its own set of (nuisance) hidden variables: ppoe (x) ? m z pm (x, z; ?m ). In contrast, pnorm has one set of hidden variables z common to all submodels, which is what provides the mechanism for agreement-based learning. 2.1 The product EM algorithm We now derive the product EM algorithm to maximize Oagree . Product EM bears many striking similarities to EM: both are coordinate-wise ascent algorithms on an auxiliary function and both increase the original objective monotonically. By introducing an auxiliary distribution q(z) and applying Jensen?s inequality, we can lower bound Oagree with an auxiliary function L: Q Q X pm (x, z; ?m ) def pm (x, z; ?m ) ? Eq(z) log m = L(?, q) (4) Oagree (?) = log q(z) m q(z) q(z) z The product EM algorithm performs coordinate-wise ascent on L(?, q). In the (product) E-step, we optimize L with respect to q. Simple algebra reveals Q that this optimization is equivalent to minimizing a KL-divergence: L(?, q) = ?KL(q(z)|| m pm (x, z; ?m )) + constant, where the constant 1 To simplify notation, we consider one data point x. Extending to a set of i.i.d. points is straightforward. 2 Q does not depend on q. This quantity is minimized by setting q(z) ? m pm (x, z; ?m ). In the (product) M-step,Pwe optimize L with respect to ?, which decomposes into M independent objectives: L(?, q) = m Eq log pm (x, z; ?m ) + constant, where this constant does not depend on ?. Each term corresponds to an independent M-step, just as in EM for maximizing Oindep . Thus, our product EM algorithm differs from independent EM only in the E-step, in which the submodels are multiplied together to produce one posterior over z rather than M separate ones. Assuming that there is an efficient EM algorithm for each submodel pm , there is no difficulty in performing the product M-step. In our applications (Section 5), each pm is composed of multinomial distributions, so the M-step simply involves computing ratios of expected counts. On the other hand, the product E-step can become intractable and we must develop approximations (Section 4). 3 Exponential family formulation Thus far, we have placed no restrictions on the form of the submodels. To develop a richer understanding and provide a framework for making approximations, we now assume that each submodel pm is an exponential family distribution: T pm (x, z; ?m ) = exp{?m ?m (x, z) ? Am (?m )} for x ? X , z ? Zm and 0 otherwise, (5) P T where ?m are sufficient statistics (features) and Am (?m ) = log x?X ,z?Zm exp{?m ?m (x, z)} is the log-partition function,2 defined on ?m ? ?m ? RJ . We can think of all the submodels pm as being defined on a common space Z? = ?m Zm , but the support of q(z) as computed in the E-step is only the intersection Z? = ?m Zm . Controlling this support will be essential in developing tractable approximations (Section 4.1). In the general formulation, we required only that the submodels share the same event space X ? Z. Now we make explicit the possibility of the submodels sharing features, which give us more structure for deriving approximations. In particular, suppose each feature j of submodel pm can be decomposed into a part that depends on x (which is specific to that particular submodel) and a part that depends on z (which is the same for all submodels): ?mj (x, z) = I X Z X Z ?X mji (x)?i (z), or in matrix notation, ?m (x, z) = ?m (x)? (z), (6) i=1 Z where ?X m (x) is a J ? I matrix and ? (z) is a I ? 1 vector. When z is discrete, such a decompoZ sition always exists by defining ? (z) to be an |Z? |-dimensional indicator vector which is 1 on the component corresponding to z. Fortunately, we can usually obtain more compact representations of ?Z (z). We can now express our objective L(?, q) (4) using (5) and (6):  X X T X L(?, q) = ?m ?m (x) (Eq(z) ?Z (z)) + H(q) ? Am (?m ) for q ? Q(Z? ), (7) m m def where Q(Z 0 ) = {q : q(z) = 0 for z 6? Z 0P } is the set of distributions with support Z 0 . For T X convenience, define bTm = ?m ?m (x) and b = m bm , which summarize the parameters ? for the E-step. Note that for any ?, the q maximizing L always has the following exponential family form: q(z; ?) = exp{? T ?Z (z) ? AZ? (?)} for z ? Z? and 0 otherwise, (8) P T Z where AZ? (?) = log z?Z? exp{? ? (z)} is the log-partition function. In a minor abuse of notation, we write L(?, ?) = L(?, q(?; ?)). Specifically, L(?, ?) is maximized by setting ? = b. It will be useful to express (7) using convex duality [12]. The key idea of convex duality is the existence of a mapping between the canonical exponential parameters ? ? RI of an exponential family distribution q(z; ?) and the mean parameters defined by ? = Eq(z;?) ?Z (z) ? M(Z? ) ? RI , where M(Z 0 ) = {? : ?q ? Q(Z 0 ) : Eq ?Z (z) = ?} is the set of realizable mean parameters. The Fenchel-Legendre conjugate of the log-partition function AZ? (?) is def A?Z? (?) = sup {? T ? ? AZ? (?)} for ? ? M(Z? ), (9) ??RI 2 Our applications use directed graphical models, which correspond to curved exponential families where each ?m is defined by local normalization constraints and Am (?m ) = 0. 3 which is also equal to ?H(q(z; ?)), the negative entropy of any distribution q(z; ?) corresponding to ?. Substituting ? and A?Z? (?) into (7), we obtain an objective in terms of the dual variables ?: X  X def T X L? (?, ?) = ?m Am (?m ) for ? ? M(Z? ). (10) ?m (x) ? ? A?Z? (?) ? m m Note that the two objectives are equivalent: sup??RI L(?, ?) = sup??M(Z? ) L? (?, ?) for each ?. The mean parameters ? are exactly the z-specific expected sufficient statistics computed in the product E-step. The dual is an attractive representation because it allows us to form convex combinations of different ?, an operation does not have a direct correlate in the primal formulation. The product EM algorithm is summarized below: E-step: M-step: 4 Product EM ? = argmax?0 ?M(Z? ) {bT ?0 ? A?Z? (?0 )} 0T X 0 ?m = argmax?m 0 ?? {?m ? (x)? ? Am (?m )} m Approximations The product M-step is tractable provided that the M-step for each submodel is tractable, which is generally the case. The corresponding statement is not true for the E-step, which in general requires explicitly summing over all possible z ? Z? , often an exponentially large set. We will thus consider alternative E-steps, so it will be convenient to succinctly characterize an E-step. An E-step is specified by a vector b0 (which depends on ? and x) and a set Z 0 (which we sum z over): E(b0 , Z 0 ) computes ? = argmax {b0T ?0 ? A?Z 0 (?0 )}. (11) ?0 ?M(Z 0 ) Using this notation, E(bm , Zm ) is the E-step for training the m-th submodel independently using EM and E(b, Z? ) is the E-step of product EM. Though we write E-steps in the dual formulation, in practice, we compute ? as an expectation over all z ? Z 0 , perhaps leveraging dynamic programming. If E(bm , Zm ) is tractable and all submodels have the same dynamic programming structure (e.g., if z is a tree and all features are local with respect to that tree), then E(b, Z? ) is also tractable: we can incorporate all the features into the same dynamic program and simply run product EM (see Section 5.1 for an example). However, E(b, Z? ) is intractable in general, owing to two complications: (1) we can sum over each Zm efficiently but not the intersection Z? ; and (2) each bm corresponds to a decomposable graphical P model, but the combined b = m bm corresponds to a loopy graph. In the sequel, we describe two approximate objective functions addressing each complication, whose maximization can be carried out by performing M independent tractable E-steps. 4.1 Domain-approximate product EM Assume that for each submodel pm , E(b, Zm ) is tractable (see Section 5.2 for an example). We propose maximizing the following objective:  i X X h X def 1 T X ? ?m Am (?m ), (12) L?dom (?, ?1 , . . . , ?m ) = 0 ?m0 (x) ?m ? AZ (?m ) ? m M m 0 m m with each ?m ? M(Zm ). This objective can be maximized via coordinate-wise ascent: Domain-approximate product EM E-step: M-step: ?m = argmax?0m ?M(Zm ) {bT ?0m? A?Zm (?0m )} P 1 0T X 0 ?m = argmax?m 0 ?? {?m ? (x) m0 ?m0 ? Am (?m )} m M [E(b, Zm )] The product E-step consists of M separate E-steps, which are each tractable because each involves the respective Zm instead of Z? . The resulting expected sufficient statistics are averaged and used in the product M-step, which breaks down into M separate M-steps. 4 While we have not yet established any relationship between our approximation L?dom and the original objective L? , we can, however, relate L?dom to L?? , which is defined as an analogue of L? by replacing Z? with Z? in (10). Proposition 1. L?dom (?, ?1 , . . . , ?M ) ? L?? (?, ? ?) for all ? and ?m ? M(Zm ) and ? ? = P 1 ? . m m M Proof. First, since M(Zm ) ? M(Z? ) and M(Z? ) is a convex set, ? ? ? M(Z? ), so L?? (?, ? ?) is well-defined. SubtractingP the L? version of (10) from (12), we obtain L?dom (?, ? , . . . , ? ) ? 1 M P 1 1 L?? (?, ? ?) = A?Z? (? ?) ? M A?Zm (?m ). It suffices to show A?Z? (? ?) ? M A?Z? (?m ) ? m m P 1 ? ? m AZm (?m ). The first inequality follows from convexity of AZ? (?). For the second inequality: M since Zm ? Z? , AZ? (?m ) ? AZm (?m ); by inspecting (9), it follows that A?Z? (?m ) ? A?Zm (?m ). 4.2 Parameter-approximate product EM Now suppose that for each submodel pm , E(bm , Z? ) is tractable (see Section 5.3 for an example). We propose maximizing the following objective: i X Xh def 1 T X L?par (?, ?1 , . . . , ?m ) = (M ?m ?m (x))?m ? A?Z? (?m ) ? Am (?m ), (13) M m m with each ?m ? M(Z? ). This objective can be maximized via coordinate-wise ascent, which again consists of M separate E-steps E(M bm , Z? ) and the same M-step as before: Parameter-approximate product EM E-step: M-step: ?m = argmax?0m ?M(Zm ) {(M bm)T ?0m ? A?Z?(?0m )} P 1 0T X 0 ?m = argmax?m 0 ?? {?m ? (x) m0 ?m0 ? Am (?m )} m M [E(M bm , Z? )] We can show that the maximum value of L?par is at least that of L? , which leaves us maximizing an upper bound of L? . Although less logical than maximizing a lower bound, in Section 5.3, we show that our approach is nonetheless a reasonable approximation which importantly is tractable. Proposition 2. max?1 ?M(Z? ),...,?M ?M(Z? ) L?par (?, ?1 , . . . , ?M ) ? max??M(Z? ) L? (?, ?). Proof. From the definitions of L?par (13) and L? (10), it is easy to see that L?par (?, ?, . . . , ?) = L? (?, ?) for all ? ? M(Z? ). If we maximize L?par with M distinct arguments, we cannot end up with a smaller value. The product E-step could also be approximated by mean-field or loopy belief propagation variants. These methods and the two we propose all fall under the general variational framework for approximate inference [12]. The two approximations we developed have the advantage of permitting exact tractable solutions without resorting to expensive iterative methods which are only guaranteed to converge to a local optima. While we still lack a complete theory relating our approximations L?dom and L?par to the original objective L? , we can give some intuitions. Since we are operating in the space of expected sufficient statistics ?m , most of the information about the full posterior pm (z | x) must be captured in these statistics alone. Therefore, we expect our approximations to be accurate when each submodel has enough capacity to represent the posterior pm (z | x; ?m ) as a low-variance unimodal distribution. 5 Applications We now empirically validate our algorithms on three concrete applications: grammar induction using product EM (Section 5.1), unsupervised word alignment using domain-approximate product EM (Section 5.2), and prediction of missing nucleotides in DNA sequences using parameter-approximate product EM (Section 5.3). 5 HMM model e1 a1 f1 e2 a2 f2 e3 a3 f3 a4 f4 f1 (a) Submodel p1 e1 e2 e3 a1 a2 a3 f2 f3 f4 (b) Submodel p2 alignment error rate 0.12 Independent EM Domain-approximate product EM 0.11 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 iteration Figure 1: The two instances of IBM model 1 for word alignment are shown in (a) and (b). The graph shows gains from agreement-based learning. 5.1 Grammar induction Grammar induction is the problem of inducing latent syntactic structures given a set of observed sentences. There are two common types of syntactic structure (one based on word dependencies and the other based on constituent phrases), which can each be represented as a submodel. [5] proposed an algorithm to train these two submodels. Their algorithm is a special case of our product EM algorithm, although they did not state an objective function. Since the shared hidden state is a tree structure, product EM is tractable. They show that training the two submodels to agree significantly improves accuracy over independent training. See [5] for more details. 5.2 Unsupervised word alignment Word alignment is an important component of machine translation systems. Suppose we have a set of sentence pairs. Each pair consists of two sentences, one in a source language (say, English) and its translation in a target language (say, French). The goal of unsupervised word alignment is to match the words in a source sentence to the words in the corresponding target sentence. Formally, let x = (e, f ) be an observed pair of sentences, where e = (e1 , . . . , e|e| ) and f = (f1 , . . . , f|f | ); z is a set of alignment edges between positions in the English and positions in the French. Classical models for word alignment include IBM models 1 and 2 [2] and the HMM model [8]. These are asymmetric models, which means that they assign non-zero probability only to alignments in which each French word is aligned to at most one English word; we denote this set Z1 . An element z ? Z1 can be parameterized by a vector a = (a1 , . . . , a|f | ), with aj ? {N ULL, 1, . . . , |e|}, corresponding to the English word (if any) that French word fj is aligned to. We define the first submodel on X ? Z1 as follows (specializing to IBM model 1 for simplicity): p1 (x, z; ?1 ) = p1 (e, f , a; ?1 ) = p1 (e) |f | Y p1 (aj )p1 (fj | eaj ; ?1 ), (14) j=1 where p1 (e) and p1 (aj ) are constant and the canonical exponential parameters ?1 are the transition log-probabilities {log t1;ef } for each English word e (including N ULL) and French word f . Written in exponential family form, ?Z (z) is an (|e| + 1)(|f | + 1)-dimensional vector whose comZ ponents are {?Z ij (z) ? {0, 1} : i = N ULL , 1, . . . , |e|, j = N ULL , 1, . . . , |f |}. We have ?ij (z) = 1 if and only if English word ei is aligned to French word fj and zN ULLj = 1 if and only if fj is not aligned to any English word. Also, ?X ef ;ij (x) = 1 if and only if ei = e and fj = f . The mean parameters associated with an E-step are {?1;ij }, the posterior probabilities of ei aligning to fj ; these can be computed independently for each j. We can define a second submodel p2 (x, z; ?2 ) on X ? Z2 by reversing the roles of English and French. Figure 1(a)?(b) shows the two models. We cannot use product EM algorithm to train p1 and p2 because summing over all alignments in Z? = Z1 ? Z2 is NP-hard. However, we can use domain-approximate product EM because E(b1 + b2 , Zm ) is tractable?the tractability here does not depend on decomposability of b but the asymmetric alignment structure of Zm . The concrete change from independent EM is slight: we need to only change the E-step of each pm to use the product of translation probabilities t1;ef t2;f e and change the M-step to use the average of the edge posteriors obtained from the two E-steps. 6 dA1 dB1 dA2 dC1 dD1 dE1 dB2 dA3 dC2 dD2 dE2 dB3 dA4 dC3 dD3 dE3 dB4 dA1 dC4 dD4 dB1 dE4 dC1 dD1 (a) Submodel p1 dA2 dE1 dB2 dA3 dC2 dD2 dE2 dB3 dA4 dC3 dD3 dE3 dB4 dC4 dD4 dE4 (b) Submodel p2 Figure 2: The two phylogenetic HMM models, one for the even slices, the other for the odd ones. [6] proposed an alternative method to train two models to agree. Their E-step computes ?1 = E(b1 , Z1 ) and ?2 = E(b2 , Z2 ), whereas our E-steps incorporate the parameters of both models in b1 + b2 . Their M-step uses the elementwise product of ?1 and ?2 , whereas we use the average 1 2 (?1 + ?2 ). Finally, while their algorithm appears to be very stable and is observed to converge empirically, no objective function has been developed; in contrast, our algorithm maximizes (12). In practice, both algorithms perform comparably. We conducted our experiments according to the setup of [6]. We used 100K unaligned sentences for training and 137 for testing from the English-French Hansards data of the NAACL 2003 Shared Task. Alignments are evaluated using alignment error rate (AER); see [6] for more details. We trained two instances of the HMM model [8] (English-to-French and French-to-English) using 10 iterations of domain-approximate product EM, initializing with independently trained IBM model 1 parameters. For prediction, we output alignment edges with sufficient posterior probability: {(i, j) : 1 2 (?1;ij + ?2;ij ) ? ?}. Figure 1 shows how agreement-based training improves the error rate over independent training for the HMM models. 5.3 Phylogenetic HMM models Suppose we have a set of species s ? S arranged in a fixed phylogeny (i.e., S are the nodes of a directed tree). Each species s is associated with a length L sequence of nucleotides ds = (ds1 , . . . , dsL ). Let d = {ds : s ? S} denote all the nucleotides, which consist of some observed ones x and unobserved ones z. A good phylogenetic model should take into consideration both the relationship between nucleotides of the different species at the same site and the relationship between adjacent nucleotides in the same species. However, such a model would have high tree-width and be intractable to train. Past work has focused on traditional variational inference in a single intractable model [9, 4]. Our approach is to instead create two tractable submodels and train them to agree. Define one submodel to be Y Y Y p1 (x, z; ?1 ) = p1 (d; ?1 ) = p1 (ds0 j | dsj ; ?1 )p1 (ds0 j+1 | ds0 j , ds(j+1) ; ?1 ), (15) j odd s?S s0 ?C H(s) where C H(s) is the set of children of s in the tree. The second submodel p2 is defined similarly, only with the product taken over j even. The parameters ?m consist of first-order mutation logprobabilities and second-order mutation log-probabilities. Both submodels permit the same set of assignments of hidden nucleotides (Z? = Z1 = Z2 ). Figure 2(a)?(b) shows the two submodels. Exact product EM is not tractable since b = b1 + b2 corresponds to a graph with high tree-width. We can apply parameter-approximate product EM, in which the E-step only involves computing ?m = E(2bm , Z? ). This can be done via dynamic programming along the tree for each twonucleotide slice of the sequence. In the M-step, the average 21 (?1 + ?2 ) is used for each model, which has a closed form solution. Our experiments used a multiple alignment consisting of L = 20, 000 consecutive sites belonging to the L1 transposons in the Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator (CFTR) gene (chromosome 7). Eight eutherian species were arranged in the phylogeny shown in Figure 3. The data we used is the same as that of [9]. Some nucleotides in the sequences were already missing. In addition, we held out some fraction of the observed ones for evaluation. We trained two models using 30 iterations of parameter-approximate product EM.3 For prediction, the posteriors over heldout 3 We initialized with a small amount of noise around uniform parameters plus a small bias towards identity mutations. 7 20% heldout 50% heldout 0.85 (hidden) 0.8 0.8 0.75 0.7 baboon (hidden) (hidden) (hidden) (hidden) (hidden) mouse rat accuracy (hidden) accuracy 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.45 Independent EM Parameter-approximate product EM 0.4 chimp human cow pig cat dog 0.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 Independent EM Parameter-approximate product EM 0 iteration 5 10 15 20 25 iteration Figure 3: The tree is the phylogeny topology used in experiments. The graphs show the prediction accuracy of independent versus agreement-based training (parameter-approximate product EM) when 20% and 50% of the observed nodes are held out. nucleotides under each model are averaged and the one with the highest posterior is chosen. Figure 3 shows the prediction accuracy. Though independent and agreement-based training eventually obtain the same accuracy, agreement-based training converges much faster. This gap grows as the amount of heldout data increases. 6 Conclusion We have developed a general framework for agreement-based learning of multiple submodels. Viewing these submodels as components of an overall model, our framework permits the submodels to be trained jointly without paying the computational cost associated with an actual jointly-normalized probability model. We have presented an objective function for agreement-based learning and three EM-style algorithms that maximize this objective or approximations to this objective. We have also demonstrated the applicability of our approach to three important real-world tasks. For grammar induction, our approach yields the existing algorithm of [5], providing an objective for that algorithm. For word alignment and phylogenetic HMMs, our approach provides entirely new algorithms. Acknowledgments We would like to thank Adam Siepel for providing the phylogenetic data and acknowledge the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency under contract NBCHD030010. References [1] J. Besag. The analysis of non-lattice data. The Statistician, 24:179?195, 1975. [2] P. F. Brown, S. A. D. Pietra, V. J. D. Pietra, and R. L. Mercer. The mathematics of statistical machine translation: Parameter estimation. Computational Linguistics, 19:263?311, 1993. [3] G. Hinton. Products of experts. In International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, 1999. [4] V. Jojic, N. Jojic, C. Meek, D. Geiger, A. Siepel, D. Haussler, and D. Heckerman. Efficient approximations for learning phylogenetic HMM models from data. Bioinformatics, 20:161?168, 2004. [5] D. Klein and C. D. Manning. Corpus-based induction of syntactic structure: Models of dependency and constituency. In Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), 2004. [6] P. Liang, B. Taskar, and D. Klein. Alignment by agreement. In Human Language Technology and North American Association for Computational Linguistics (HLT/NAACL), 2006. [7] B. Lindsay. Composite likelihood methods. Contemporary Mathematics, 80:221?239, 1988. [8] H. Ney and S. Vogel. HMM-based word alignment in statistical translation. In International Conference on Computational Linguistics (COLING), 1996. [9] A. Siepel and D. Haussler. Combining phylogenetic and hidden Markov models in biosequence analysis. Journal of Computational Biology, 11:413?428, 2004. [10] C. Sutton and A. McCallum. Piecewise training of undirected models. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2005. [11] C. Sutton and A. McCallum. Piecewise pseudolikelihood for efficient CRF training. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2007. [12] M. Wainwright and M. I. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Technical report, Department of Statistics, University of California at Berkeley, 2003. 8
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Boosting the Area Under the ROC Curve Philip M. Long [email protected] Rocco A. Servedio [email protected] Abstract We show that any weak ranker that can achieve an area under the ROC curve slightly better than 1/2 (which can be achieved by random guessing) can be efficiently boosted to achieve an area under the ROC curve arbitrarily close to 1. We further show that this boosting can be performed even in the presence of independent misclassification noise, given access to a noise-tolerant weak ranker. 1 Introduction Background. Machine learning is often used to identify members of a given class from a list of candidates. This can be formulated as a ranking problem, where the algorithm takes a input a list of examples of members and non-members of the class, and outputs a function that can be used to rank candidates. The goal is to have the top of the list enriched for members of the class of interest. ROC curves [12, 3] are often used to evaluate the quality of a ranking function. A point on an ROC curve is obtained by cutting off the ranked list, and checking how many items above the cutoff are members of the target class (?true positives?), and how many are not (?false positives?). The AUC [1, 10, 3] (area under the ROC curve) is often used as a summary statistic. It is obtained by rescaling the axes so the true positives and false positives vary between 0 and 1, and, as the name implies, examining the area under the resulting curve. The AUC measures the ability of a ranker to identify regions in feature space that are unusually densely populated with members of a given class. A ranker can succeed according to this criterion even if positive examples are less dense than negative examples everywhere, but, in order to succeed, it must identify where the positive examples tend to be. This is in contrast with classification, where, if Pr[y = 1|x] is less than 1/2 everywhere, just predicting y = ?1 everywhere would suffice. Our Results. It is not hard to see that an AUC of 1/2 can be achieved by random guessing (see [3]), thus it is natural to define a ?weak ranker? to be an algorithm that can achieve AUC slightly above 1/2. We show that any weak ranker can be boosted to a strong ranker that achieves AUC arbitrarily close to the best possible value of 1. We also consider the standard independent classification noise model, in which the label of each example is flipped with probability ?. We show that in this setting, given a noise-tolerant weak ranker (that achieves nontrivial AUC in the presence of noisy data as described above), we can boost to a strong ranker that achieves AUC at least 1 ? ?, for any ? < 1/2 and any ? > 0. Related work. Freund, Iyer, Schapire and Singer [4] introduced RankBoost, which performs ranking with more fine-grained control over preferences between pairs of items than we consider here. They performed an analysis that implies a bound on the AUC of the boosted ranking function in terms of a different measure of the quality of weak rankers. Cortes and Mohri [2] theoretically analyzed the ?typical? relationship between the error rate of a classifier based on thresholding a scoring function and the AUC obtained through the scoring function; they also pointed out the close relationship between the loss function optimized by RankBoost and the AUC. Rudin, Cortes, Mohri, and Schapire [11] showed that, when each of two classes are equally likely, the loss function optimized by AdaBoost coincides with the loss function of RankBoost. Noise-tolerant boosting has previously been studied for classification. Kalai and Servedio [7] showed that, if data is corrupted with noise at a rate ?, it is possible to boost the accuracy of any noise-tolerant weak learner arbitrarily close to 1 ? ?, and they showed that it is impossible to boost beyond 1 ? ?. In contrast, we show that, in the presence of noise at a rate arbitrarily close to 1/2, the AUC can be boosted arbitrarily close to 1. Our noise tolerant boosting algorithm uses as a subroutine the ?martingale booster? for classification of Long and Servedio [9]. Methods. The key observation is that a weak ranker can be used to find a ?two-sided? weak classifier (Lemma 4), which achieves accuracy slightly better than random guessing on both positive and negative examples. Two-sided weak classifiers can be boosted to obtain accuracy arbitrarily close to 1, also on both the positive examples and the negative examples; a proof of this is implicit in the analysis of [9]. Such a two-sided strong classifier is easily seen to lead to AUC close to 1. Why is it possible to boost past the AUC past the noise rate, when this is provably not possible for classification? Known approaches to noise-tolerant boosting [7, 9] force the weak learner to provide a two-sided weak hypothesis by balancing the distributions that are constructed so that both classes are equally likely. However, this balancing skews the distributions so that it is no longer the case that the event that an example is corrupted with noise is independent of the instance; randomization was used to patch this up in [7, 9], and the necessary slack was only available if the desired accuracy was coarser than the noise rate. (We note that the lower bound from [7] is proved using a construction in which the class probability of positive examples is less than the noise rate; the essence of that proof is to show that in that situation it is impossible to balance the distribution given access to noisy examples.) In contrast, having a weak ranker provides enough leverage to yield a two-sided weak classifier without needing any rebalancing. Outline. Section 2 gives some definitions. In Section 3, we analyze boosting the AUC when there is no noise in an abstract model where the weak learner is given a distribution and returns a weak ranker, and sampling issues are abstracted away. In Section 4, we consider boosting in the presence of noise in a similarly abstract model. We address sampling issues in Section 5. 2 Preliminaries Rankings and AUC. Throughout this work we let X be a domain, c : X ? {?1, 1} be a classifier, and D be a probability distribution over labeled examples (x, c(x)). We say that D is nontrivial (for c) if D assigns nonzero probability to both positive and negative examples. We write D+ to denote the marginal distribution over positive examples and D? to denote the marginal distribution over negative examples, so D is a mixture of the distributions D+ and D? . As has been previously pointed out, we may view any function h : X ? R as a ranking of X. Note that if h(x1 ) = h(x2 ) then the ranking does not order x1 relative to x2 . Given a ranking function h : X ? R, for each value ? ? R there is a point (?? , ?? ) on the ROC curve of h, where ?? is the false positive rate and ?? is the true positive rate of the classifier obtained by thresholding h at ?: ?? = D? [h(x) ? ?] and ?? = D+ [h(x) ? ?]. Every ROC curve contains the points (0, 0) and (1, 1) corresponding to ? = ? and ?? respectively. Given h : X ? R and D, the AUC can be defined as AUC(h; D) = Pru?D+ ,v?D? [h(u) > h(v)] + 21 Pru?D+ ,v?D? [h(u) = h(v)]. It is well known (see e.g. [2, 6]) that the AUC as defined above is equal to the area under the ROC curve for h. Weak Rankers. Fix any distribution D. It is easy to see that any constant function h achieves AUC(h; D) = 21 , and also that for X finite and ? a random permutation of X, the expected AUC of h(?(?)) is 21 for any function h. This motivates the following definition: Definition 1 A weak ranker with advantage ? is an algorithm that, given any nontrivial distribution D, returns a function h : X ? R that has AUC(h; D) ? 21 + ?. In the rest of the paper we show how boosting algorithms originally designed for classification can be adapted to convert weak rankers into ?strong? rankers (that achieve AUC at least 1 ? ?) in a range of different settings. 3 From weak to strong AUC The main result of this section is a simple proof that the AUC can be boosted. We achieve this in a relatively straightforward way by using the standard AdaBoost algorithm for boosting classifiers. As in previous work [9], to keep the focus on the main ideas we will use an abstract model in which the booster successively passes distributions D1 , D2 , ... to a weak ranker which returns ranking functions h1 , h2 , .... When the original distribution D is uniform over a training set, as in the usual analysis of AdaBoost, this is easy to do. In this model we prove the following: Theorem 2 There is an algorithm AUCBoost that, given access to a weak ranker with advantage ? as an oracle, for any nontrivial distribution D, outputs a ranking function with AUC at least 1 ? ?. The AUCBoost algorithm makes T = O( log(1/?) ) many calls to the weak ranker. If D has finite ?2 support of size m, AUCBoost takes O(mT log m) time. As can be seen from the observation that it does not depend on the relative frequency of positive and negative examples, the AUC requires a learner to perform well on both positive and negative examples. When such a requirement is imposed on a base classifier, it has been called two-sided weak learning. The key to boosting the AUC is the observation (Lemma 4 below) that a weak ranker can be used to generate a two-sided weak learner. Definition 3 A ? two-sided weak learner is an algorithm that, given a nontrivial distribution D, outputs a hypothesis h that satisfies both Prx?D+ [h(x) = 1] ? 21 + ? and Prx?D? [h(x) = ?1] ? 1 2 + ?. We say that such an h has two-sided advantage ? with respect to D. Lemma 4 Let A be a weak ranking algorithm with advantage ?. Then there is a ?/4 two-sided weak learner A? based on A that always returns classifiers with equal error rate on positive and negative examples. Proof: Algorithm A? first runs A to get a real-valued ranking function h : X ? R. Consider the ROC curve corresponding to h. Since the AUC is at least 21 + ?, there must be some point (u, v) on the curve such that v ? u + ?. Recall that, by the definition of the ROC curve, this means that there is a threshold ? such that D+ [h(x) ? ?] ? D? [h(x) ? ?] + ?. Thus, for the classifier obtained by def def thresholding h at ?, the class conditional error rates p+ = D+ [h(x) < ?] and p? = D? [h(x) ? ?] ? 1 1 satisfy p+ + p? ? 1 ? ?. This in turn means that either p+ ? 2 ? 2 or p? ? 2 ? ?2 . Suppose that p? ? p+ , so that p? ? 21 ? ?2 (the other case can be handled symmetrically). Consider the randomized classifier g that behaves as follows: given input x, (a) if h(x) < ?, it flips a biased coin, and with probability ? ? 0, predicts 1, and with probability 1 ? ?, predicts ?1, and (b) if h(x) ? ?, it predicts 1. Let g(x, r) be the output of g on input x and with randomization r and let def def ?? = Prx?D? ,r [g(x, r) = 1] and ?+ = Prx?D+ ,r [g(x, r) = ?1]. We have ?+ = (1 ? ?)p+ and p+ ?p? ?? = p? + ?(1 ? p? ). Let us choose ? so that ?? = ?+ ; that is, we choose ? = 1+p . This + ?p? yields p+ ?? = ?+ = . (1) 1 + p+ ? p? For any fixed value of p? the RHS of (1) increases with p+ . Recalling that we have p+ +p? ? 1??, def the maximum of (1) is achieved at p+ = 1 ? ? ? p? , in which case we have (defining ? = ?? = ?+ ) (1??)?p? ? ? = 1+(1???p = (1??)?p 2???2p? . The RHS of this expression is nonincreasing in p? , and therefore ? )?p? ? is maximized at p? is 0, when it takes the value 21 ? 2(2??) ? 12 ? ?4 . This completes the proof. Figure 1 gives an illustration of the proof of the previous lemma; since the y-coordinate of (a) is at least ? more than the x-coordinate and (b) lies closer to (a) than to (1, 1), the y-coordinate of (b) is at least ?/2 more than the x-coordinate, which means that the advantage is at least ?/4. We will also need the following simple lemma which shows that a classifier that is good on both the positive and the negative examples, when viewed as a ranking function, achieves a good AUC. 1 0.8 true positive rate (b) ? 0.6 ? (a) 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 false positive rate 1 Figure 1: The curved line represents the ROC curve for ranking function h. The lower black dot (a) corresponds to the value ? and is located at (p? , 1?p+). The straight line connecting (0, 0) and (1, 1), which corresponds to a completely random ranking, is given for reference. The dashed line (covered by the solid line for 0 ? x ? .16) represents the ROC curve for a ranker h? which agrees with h on those x for which h(x) ? ? but randomly ranks those x for which h(x) < ?. The upper black dot (b) is at the point of intersection between the ROC curve for h? and the line y = 1 ? x; its coordinates are (?, 1 ? ?). The randomized classifier g is equivalent to thresholding h? with a value ?? corresponding to this point. Lemma 5 Let h : X ? {?1, 1} and suppose that Prx?D+ [h(x) = 1] = 1 ? ?+ and ? . Prx?D? [h(x) = ?1] = 1 ? ?? . Then we have AUC(h; D) = 1 ? ?+ +? 2 Proof: We have AUC(h; D) = (1 ? ?+ )(1 ? ?? ) + ?+ (1 ? ?? ) + ?? (1 ? ?+ ) ?+ + ?? =1? . 2 2 Proof of Theorem 2: AUCBoost works by running AdaBoost on 12 D+ + 21 D? . In round t, each copy of AdaBoost passes its reweighted distribution Dt to the weak ranker, and then uses the process of Lemma 4 to convert the resulting weak ranking function to a classifier ht with two-sided advantage ?/4. Since ht has two-sided advantage ?/4, no matter how Dt decomposes into a mixture of Dt+ and Dt? , it must be the case that Pr(x,y)?Dt [ht (x) 6= y] ? 21 ? ?/4.   The analysis of AdaBoost (see [5]) shows that T = O log(1/?) rounds are sufficient for H to have 2 ? error rate at most ? under 12 D+ + 21 D? . Lemma 5 now gives that the classifier H(x) is a ranking function with AUC at least 1 ? ?. For the final assertion of the theorem, note that at each round, in order to find the value of ? that defines ht the algorithm needs to minimize the sum of the error rates on the positive and negative examples. This can be done by sorting the examples using the weak ranking function (in O(m log m) time steps) and processing the examples in the resulting order, keeping running counts of the number of errors of each type. 4 Boosting weak rankers in the presence of misclassification noise The noise model: independent misclassification noise. The model of independent misclassification noise has been widely studied in computational learning theory. In this framework there is a noise rate ? < 1/2, and each example (positive or negative) drawn from distribution D has its true label c(x) independently flipped with probability ? before it is given to the learner. We write D? to denote the resulting distribution over (noise-corrupted) labeled examples (x, y). Boosting weak rankers in the presence of independent misclassification noise. We now show how the AUC can be boosted arbitrarily close to 1 even if the data given to the booster is corrupted with independent misclassification noise, using weak rankers that are able to tolerate independent misclassification noise. We note that this is in contrast with known results for boosting the accuracy of binary classifiers in the presence of noise; Kalai and Servedio [7] show that no ?black-box? boosting algorithm can be guaranteed to boost the accuracy of an arbitrary noise-tolerant weak learner to accuracy 1 ? ? in the presence of independent misclassification noise at rate ?. v0,1 v0,2 v1,2 v1,3 v2,3 ... ... ... Figure 2: The branching program produced by the boosting algorithm. Each node vi,t is labeled with a weak classifier hi,t ; left edges correspond to -1 and right edges to 1. ... v0,3 ... v0,T +1 v1,T +1 | {z } output -1 vT ?1,T +1 vT,T +1 | {z output 1 } As in the previous section we begin by abstracting away sampling issues and using a model in which the booster passes a distribution to a weak ranker. Sampling issues will be treated in Section 5. Definition 6 A noise-tolerant weak ranker with advantage ? is an algorithm with the following property: for any noise rate ? < 1/2, given a noisy distribution D? , the algorithm outputs a ranking function h : X ? R such that AUC(h; D) ? 21 + ?. Our algorithm for boosting the AUC in the presence of noise uses the Basic MartiBoost algorithm (see Section 4 of [9]). This algorithm boosts any two-sided weak learner to arbitrarily high accuracy and works in a series of rounds. Before round t the space of labeled examples is partitioned into a series of bins B0,t , ..., Bt?1,t . (The original bin B0,1 consists of the entire space.) In the t-th round the algorithm first constructs distributions D0,t , ..., Dt?1,t by conditioning the original distribution D on membership in B0,t , ..., Bt?1,t respectively. It then calls a two-sided weak learner t times using each of D0,t , ..., Dt?1,t , getting weak classifiers h0,t , ..., ht?1,t respectively. Having done this, it creates t + 1 bins for the next round by assigning each element (x, y) of Bi,t to Bi,t+1 if hi,t (x) = ?1 and to Bi+1,t+1 otherwise. Training proceeds in this way for a given number T of rounds, which is an input parameter of the algorithm. The output of Basic MartiBoost is a layered branching program defined as follows. There is a node vi,t for each round 1 ? t ? T + 1 and each index 0 ? i < t (that is, for each bin constructed during training). An item x is routed through the branching program the same way a labeled example (x, y) would have been routed during the training phase: it starts in node v0,1 , and from each node vi,t it goes to vi,t+1 if hi,t (x) = ?1, and to vi+1,t+1 otherwise. When the item x arrives at a terminal node of the branching program in layer T + 1, it is at some node vj,T +1 . The prediction is 1 if j ? T /2 and is ?1 if j < T /2; in other words, the prediction is according to the majority vote of the weak classifiers that were encountered along the path through the branching program that the example followed. See Figure 3. The following lemma is proved in [9]. (The crux of the proof is the observation that positive (respectively, negative) examples are routed through the branching program according to a random walk that is biased to the right (respectively, left); hence the name ?martingale boosting.?) Lemma 7 ([9]) Suppose that Basic MartiBoost is provided with a hypothesis hi,t with two-sided advantage ? w.r.t. Di,t at each node vi,t . Then for T = O(log(1/?)/? 2), Basic MartiBoost constructs a branching program H such that D+ [H(x) = ?1] ? ? and D? [H(x) = 1] ? ?. We now describe our noise-tolerant AUC boosting algorithm, which we call Basic MartiRank. Given access to a noise-tolerant weak ranker A with advantage ?, at each node vi,t the Basic MartiRank algorithm runs A and proceeds as described in Lemma 4 to obtain a weak classifier hi,t . Basic MartiRank runs Basic MartiBoost with T = O(log(1/?)/? 2) and simply uses the resulting classifier H as its ranking function. The following theorem shows that Basic MartiRank is an effective AUC booster in the presence of independent misclassification noise: Theorem 8 Fix any ? < 1/2 and any ? > 0. Given access to D? and a noise-tolerant weak ranker A with advantage ?, Basic MartiRank outputs a branching program H such that AUC(H; D) ? 1 ? ?. Proof: Fix any node vi,t in the branching program. The crux of the proof is the following simple observation: for a labeled example (x, y), the route through the branching program that is taken by (x, y) is determined completely by the predictions of the base classifiers, i.e. only by x, and is unaffected by the value of y. Consequently if Di,t denotes the original noiseless distribution D conditioned on reaching vi,t , then the noisy distribution conditioned on reaching vi,t , i.e. (D? )i,t , is simply Di,t corrupted with independent misclassification noise, i.e. (Di,t )? . So each time the noisetolerant weak ranker A is invoked at a node vi,t , it is indeed the case that the distribution that it is given is an independent misclassification noise distribution. Consequently A does construct weak rankers with AUC at least 1/2 + ?, and the conversion of Lemma 4 yields weak classifiers that have advantage ?/4 with respect to the underlying distribution Di,t . Given this, Lemma 7 implies that the final classifier H has error at most ? on both positive and negative examples drawn from the original distribution D, and Lemma 5 then implies that H, viewed a ranker, achieves AUC at least 1 ? ?. In [9], a more complex variant of Basic MartiBoost, called Noise-Tolerant SMartiBoost, is presented and is shown to boost any noise-tolerant weak learning algorithm to any accuracy less than 1 ? ? in the presence of independent misclassification noise. In contrast, here we are using just the Basic MartiBoost algorithm itself, and can achieve any AUC value 1 ? ? even for ? < ?. 5 Implementing MartiRank with a distribution oracle In this section we analyze learning from random examples. Formally, we assume that the weak ranker is given access to an oracle for the noisy distribution D? . We thus now view a noise-tolerant weak ranker with advantage ? as an algorithm A with the following property: for any noise rate ? < 1/2, given access to an oracle for D? , the algorithm outputs a ranking function h : X ? R such that AUC(h; D) ? 21 + ?. We let mA denote the number of examples from each class that suffice for A to construct a ranking function as described above. In other words, if A is provided with a sample of draws from D? such that each class, positive and negative, has at least mA points in the sample with that true label, then algorithm A outputs a ?-advantage weak ranking function. (Note that for simplicity we are assuming here that the weak ranker always constructs a weak ranking function with the desired advantage, i.e. we gloss over the usual confidence parameter ?; this can be handled with an entirely standard analysis.) In order to achieve a computationally efficient algorithm in this setting we must change the MartiRank algorithm somewhat; we call the new variant Sampling Martirank, or SMartiRank. We prove that SMartiRank is computationally efficient, has moderate sample complexity, and efficiently generates a high-accuracy final ranking function with respect to the underlying distribution D. Our approach follows the same general lines as [9] where an oracle implementation is presented for the MartiBoost algorithm. The main challenge in [9] is the following: for each node vi,t in the branching program, the boosting algorithm considered there must simulate a balanced version of the induced distribution Di,t which puts equal weight on positive and negative examples. If only a tiny fraction of examples drawn from D are (say) positive and reach vi,t , then it is very inefficient to simulate this balanced distribution (and in a noisy scenario, as discussed earlier, if the noise rate is high relative to the frequency of the desired class then it may in fact be impossible to simulate the balanced distribution). The solution in [9] is to ?freeze? any such node and simply classify any example that reaches it as negative; the analysis argues that since only a tiny fraction of positive examples reach such nodes, this freezing only mildly degrades the accuracy of the final hypothesis. In the ranking scenario that we now consider, we do not need to construct balanced distributions, but we do need to obtain a non-negligible number of examples from each class in order to run the weak learner at a given node. So as in [9] we still freeze some nodes, but with a twist: we now freeze nodes which have the property that for some class label (positive or negative), only a tiny fraction of examples from D with that class label reach the node. With this criterion for freezing we can prove that the final classifier constructed has high accuracy both on positive and negative examples, which is what we need to achieve good AUC. We turn now to the details. Given a node vi,t and a bit b ? {?1, 1}, let pbi,t denote D[x reaches vi,t and c(x) = b]. The SMartiRank algorithm is like Basic MartiBoost but with the following difference: for each node vi,t and each value b ? {?1, 1}, if ? ? D[c(x) = b] (2) T (T + 1) then the node vi,t is ?frozen,? i.e. it is labeled with the bit 1 ? b and is established as a terminal node with no outgoing edges. (If this condition holds for both values of b at a particular node vi,t then the node is frozen and either output value may be used as the label.) The following theorem establishes that if SMartiRank is given weak classifiers with two-sided advantage at each node that is not frozen, it will construct a hypothesis with small error rate on both positive and negative examples: pbi,t < Theorem 9 Suppose that the SMartiRank algorithm as described above is provided with a hypothesis hi,t that has two-sided advantage ? with respect to Di,t at each node vi,t that is not frozen. Then for T = O(log(1/?)/? 2 ), the final branching program hypothesis H that SMartiRank constructs will have D+ [H(x) = ?1] ? ? and D? [H(x) = 1] ? ?. Proof: We analyze D+ [h(x) = ?1]; the other case is symmetric. Given an unlabeled instance x ? X, we say that x freezes at node vi,t if x?s path through the branching program causes it to terminate at a node vi,t with t < P T + 1 (i.e. at a node vi,t which was frozen by SMartiRank). We have D[x freezes and c(x) = 1] = i,t D[x freezes at vi,t and c(x) = P 1] ? i,t ??D[c(x)=1] ? 2? ? D[c(x) = 1]. Consequently we have T (T +1) D+ [x freezes] = D[x freezes and c(x) = 1] ? < . D[c(x) = 1] 2 (3) Naturally, D+ [h(x) = ?1] = D+ [(h(x) = ?1) & (x freezes)] + D+ [(h(x) = ?1) & (x does not freeze)]. By (3), this is at most 2? + D+ [(h(x) = ?1) & (x does not freeze)]. Arguments identical to those in the last two paragraphs of the proof of Theorem 3 in [9] show that D+ [(h(x) = ?1) & (x does not freeze)] ? 2? , and we are done. We now describe how SMartiRank can be run given oracle access to D? and sketch the analysis of the required sample complexity (some details are omitted because of space limits). For simplicity of def presentation we shall assume that the booster is given the value p = min{D[c(x) = ?1], D[c(x) = 1]}; we note if that p is not given a priori, a standard ?guess and halve? technique can be used to efficiently obtain a value that is within a multiplicative factor of two of p, which is easily seen to suffice. We also make the standard assumption (see [7, 9]) that the noise rate ? is known; this assumption can similarly be removed by having the algorithm ?guess and check? the value to sufficiently fine granularity. Also, the confidence can be analyzed using the standard appeal to the union bound ? details are omitted. SMartiRank will replace (2) with a comparison of sample estimates of the two quantities. To allow for the fact that they are just estimates, it will be more conservative, and freeze when the estimate of pbi,t is at most 4T (T? +1) times the estimate of D[c(x) = b]. We first observe that for any distribution D and any bit b, we have Pr(x,y)?D? [y = b] = ? + (1 ? ? [y=b]?? . Consequently, given 2?)Pr(x,c(x))?D [c(x) = b], which is equivalent to D[c(x) = b] = D 1?2? an empirical estimate of D? [y = b] that is accurate to within an additive ? p(1?2?) (which can easily 10 1 ? be obtained from O( p2 (1?2?) ) draws to D ), it is possible to estimate D[c(x) = b] to within an 2 ?p additive ?p/10, and thus to estimate the RHS of (2) to within an additive ? 10T (T +1) . Now in order to determine whether node vi,t should be frozen, we must compare this estimate with a similarly accurate estimate of pbi,t (arguments similar to those of, e.g., Section 6.3 of [9] can be used to show that it suffices to run the algorithm using these estimated values). We have pbi,t = = D[x reaches vi,t ] ? D[c(x) = b | x reaches vi,t ] = D? [x reaches vi,t ] ? Di,t [c(x) = b] ! ? Di,t [y = b] ? ? ? D [x reaches vi,t ] ? . 1 ? 2? A standard analysis (see e.g. Chapter 5 of [8]) shows that this quantity can be estimated to additive accuracy ?? using poly(1/?, 1/(1 ? 2?)) many calls to D? (briefly, if D? [x reaches vi,t ] is less than ? (1 ? 2?) then an estimate of 0 is good enough, while if it is greater than ? (1 ? 2?) then a ? -accurate 1 ? estimate of the second multiplicand can be obtained using O( ? 3 (1?2?) 3 ) draws from D , since at least a ? (1 ? 2?) fraction of draws will reach vi,t .) Thus for each vi,t , we can determine whether to freeze it in the execution of SMartiRank using poly(T, 1/?, 1/p, 1/(1 ? 2?)) draws from D? . For each of the nodes that are not frozen, we must run the noise-tolerant weak ranker A using the ? distribution Di,t . As discussed at the beginning of this section, this requires that we obtain a sample ? from Di,t containing at least mA examples whose true label belongs to each class. The expected number of draws from D? that must be made in order to receive an example from a given class is 1/p, and since vi,t is not frozen, the expected number of draws from D? belonging to a given ? class that must be made in order to simulate a draw from Di,t belonging to that class is O(T 2 /?). 2 ? Thus, O(T mA /(?p)) many draws from D are required in order to run the weak learner A at any particular node. Since there are O(T 2 ) many nodes overall, we have that all in all O(T 4 mA /(?p)) many draws from D? are required, in addition to the poly(T, 1/?, 1/p, 1/(1 ? 2?)) draws required to identify which nodes to freeze. Recalling that T = O(log(1/?)/? 2 ), all in all we have: Theorem 10 Let D be a nontrivial distribution over X, p = min{D[c(x) = ?1], D[c(x) = 1]}, and ? < 21 . Given access to an oracle for D? and a noise-tolerant weak ranker A with advantage 1 ?, the SMartiRank algorithm makes mA ? poly( 1? , ?1 , 1?2? , p1 ) calls to D? , and and with probability 1 ? ? outputs a branching program H such that AUC(h; D) ? 1 ? ?. Acknowledgement We are very grateful to Naoki Abe for suggesting the problem of boosting the AUC. References [1] A. P. Bradley. Use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Pattern Recognition, 30:1145?1159, 1997. [2] C. Cortes and M. Mohri. AUC optimization vs. error rate minimzation. In NIPS 2003, 2003. [3] T. Fawcett. ROC graphs: Notes and practical considerations for researchers. Technical Report HPL-2003-4, HP, 2003. [4] Y. Freund, R. Iyer, R. E. Schapire, and Y. Singer. An efficient boosting algorithm for combining preferences. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4(6):933?970, 2004. [5] Y. Freund and R. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 55(1):119?139, 1997. [6] J. Hanley and B. McNeil. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143(1):29?36, 1982. [7] A. Kalai and R. Servedio. Boosting in the presence of noise. Journal of Computer & System Sciences, 71(3):266?290, 2005. Preliminary version in Proc. STOC?03. [8] M. Kearns and U. Vazirani. An introduction to computational learning theory. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1994. [9] P. Long and R. Servedio. Martingale boosting. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory (COLT), pages 79?94, 2005. [10] F. Provost, T. Fawcett, and Ron Kohavi. The case against accuracy estimation for comparing induction algorithms. ICML, 1998. [11] C. Rudin, C. Cortes, M. Mohri, and R. E. Schapire. Margin-based ranking meets boosting in the middle. COLT, 2005. [12] J. A. Swets. Signal detection theory and ROC analysis in psychology and diagnostics: Collected papers. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1995.
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Direct Importance Estimation with Model Selection and Its Application to Covariate Shift Adaptation Masashi Sugiyama Tokyo Institute of Technology [email protected] Hisashi Kashima IBM Research [email protected] Shinichi Nakajima Nikon Corporation [email protected] ? Paul von Bunau Technical University Berlin [email protected] Motoaki Kawanabe Fraunhofer FIRST [email protected] Abstract A situation where training and test samples follow different input distributions is called covariate shift. Under covariate shift, standard learning methods such as maximum likelihood estimation are no longer consistent?weighted variants according to the ratio of test and training input densities are consistent. Therefore, accurately estimating the density ratio, called the importance, is one of the key issues in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach to this task is to first estimate training and test input densities separately and then estimate the importance by taking the ratio of the estimated densities. However, this naive approach tends to perform poorly since density estimation is a hard task particularly in high dimensional cases. In this paper, we propose a direct importance estimation method that does not involve density estimation. Our method is equipped with a natural cross validation procedure and hence tuning parameters such as the kernel width can be objectively optimized. Simulations illustrate the usefulness of our approach. 1 Introduction A common assumption in supervised learning is that training and test samples follow the same distribution. However, this basic assumption is often violated in practice and then standard machine learning methods do not work as desired. A situation where the input distribution P (x) is different in the training and test phases but the conditional distribution of output values, P (y|x), remains unchanged is called covariate shift [8]. In many real-world applications such as robot control [10], bioinformatics [1], spam filtering [3], brain-computer interfacing [9], or econometrics [5], covariate shift is conceivable and thus learning under covariate shift is gathering a lot of attention these days. The influence of covariate shift could be alleviated by weighting the log likelihood terms according to the importance [8]: w(x) = pte (x)/ptr (x), where pte (x) and ptr (x) are test and training input densities. Since the importance is usually unknown, the key issue of covariate shift adaptation is how to accurately estimate the importance. A naive approach to importance estimation would be to first estimate the training and test densities separately from training and test input samples, and then estimate the importance by taking the ratio of the estimated densities. However, density estimation is known to be a hard problem particularly in high-dimensional cases. Therefore, this naive approach may not be effective?directly estimating the importance without estimating the densities would be more promising. Following this spirit, the kernel mean matching (KMM) method has been proposed recently [6], which directly gives importance estimates without going through density estimation. KMM is shown 1 to work well, given that tuning parameters such as the kernel width are chosen appropriately. Intuitively, model selection of importance estimation algorithms (such as KMM) is straightforward by cross validation (CV) over the performance of subsequent learning algorithms. However, this is highly unreliable since the ordinary CV score is heavily biased under covariate shift?for unbiased estimation of the prediction performance of subsequent learning algorithms, the CV procedure itself needs to be importance-weighted [9]. Since the importance weight has to have been fixed when model selection is carried out by importance weighted CV, it can not be used for model selection of importance estimation algorithms. The above fact implies that model selection of importance estimation algorithms should be performed within the importance estimation step in an unsupervised manner. However, since KMM can only estimate the values of the importance at training input points, it can not be directly applied in the CV framework; an out-of-sample extension is needed, but this seems to be an open research issue currently. In this paper, we propose a new importance estimation method which can overcome the above problems, i.e., the proposed method directly estimates the importance without density estimation and is equipped with a natural model selection procedure. Our basic idea is to find an importance estimate w(x) b such that the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the true test input density p te (x) to its estimate pbte (x) = w(x)p b tr (x) is minimized. We propose an algorithm that can carry out this minimization without explicitly modeling ptr (x) and pte (x). We call the proposed method the Kullback-Leibler Importance Estimation Procedure (KLIEP). The optimization problem involved in KLIEP is convex, so the unique global solution can be obtained. Furthermore, the solution tends to be sparse, which contributes to reducing the computational cost in the test phase. Since KLIEP is based on the minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence, its model selection can be naturally carried out through a variant of likelihood CV, which is a standard model selection technique in density estimation. A key advantage of our CV procedure is that, not the training samples, but the test input samples are cross-validated. This highly contributes to improving the model selection accuracy since the number of training samples is typically limited while test input samples are abundantly available. The simulation studies show that KLIEP tends to outperform existing approaches in importance estimation including the logistic regression based method [2], and it contributes to improving the prediction performance in covariate shift scenarios. 2 New Importance Estimation Method In this section, we propose a new importance estimation method. 2.1 Formulation and Notation ntr Let D ? (Rd ) be the input domain and suppose we are given i.i.d. training input samples {x tr i }i=1 te nte from a training input distribution with density ptr (x) and i.i.d. test input samples {xj }j=1 from a test input distribution with density pte (x). We assume that ptr (x) > 0 for all x ? D. Typically, the number ntr of training samples is rather small, while the number nte of test input samples is very large. The goal of this paper is to develop a method of estimating the importance w(x) from ntr te nte {xtr i }i=1 and {xj }j=1 : pte (x) w(x) = . ptr (x) Our key restriction is that we avoid estimating densities pte (x) and ptr (x) when estimating the importance w(x). 2.2 Kullback-Leibler Importance Estimation Procedure (KLIEP) Let us model the importance w(x) by the following linear model: w(x) b = b X `=1 2 ?` ?` (x), (1) where {?` }b`=1 are parameters to be learned from data samples and {?` (x)}b`=1 are basis functions such that ?` (x) ? 0 for all x ? D and for ` = 1, 2, . . . , b. ntr te nte Note that b and {?` (x)}b`=1 could be dependent on the samples {xtr i }i=1 and {xj }j=1 , i.e., kernel models are also allowed?we explain how the basis functions {?` (x)}b`=1 are chosen in Section 2.3. Using the model w(x), b we can estimate the test input density pte (x) by {?` }b`=1 We determine the parameters pte (x) to pbte (x) is minimized: Z pbte (x) = w(x)p b tr (x). in the model (1) so that the Kullback-Leibler divergence from pte (x) dx w(x)p b tr (x) ZD Z pte (x) = pte (x) log dx ? pte (x) log w(x)dx. b ptr (x) D D KL[pte (x)kb pte (x)] = pte (x) log Since the first term in the last equation is independent of {?` }b`=1 , we ignore it and focus on the second term. We denote it by J: Z J= pte (x) log w(x)dx b (2) D ! nte nte b X 1 X 1 X te ? log w(x b j )= log ?` ?` (xte j ) , nte j=1 nte j=1 `=1 nte where the empirical approximation based on the test input samples {xte j }j=1 is used from the first line to the second line above. This is our objective function to be maximized with respect to the parameters {?` }b`=1 , which is concave [4]. Note that the above objective function only involves the nte tr ntr test input samples {xte j }j=1 , i.e., we did not use the training input samples {xi }i=1 yet. As shown tr ntr below, {xi }i=1 will be used in the constraint. w(x) b is an estimate of the importance w(x) which is non-negative by definition. Therefore, it is natural to impose w(x) b ? 0 for all x ? D, which can be achieved by restricting ?` ? 0 for ` = 1, 2, . . . , b. In addition to the non-negativity, w(x) b should be properly normalized since pbte (x) (= w(x)p b tr (x)) is a probability density function: Z Z 1= pbte (x)dx = w(x)p b (3) tr (x)dx D D ntr ntr X b 1 X 1 X ? w(x b tr ) = ?` ?` (xtr i i ), ntr i=1 ntr i=1 `=1 ntr where the empirical approximation based on the training input samples {xtr i }i=1 is used from the first line to the second line above. Now our optimization criterion is summarized as follows. ? !? nte b X X ? maximize ? log ?` ?` (xte j ) {?` }b`=1 j=1 subject to `=1 ntr X b X i=1 `=1 ?` ?` (xtr i ) = ntr and ?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?b ? 0. This is a convex optimization problem and the global solution can be obtained, e.g., by simply performing gradient ascent and feasibility satisfaction iteratively. A pseudo code is described in Figure 1-(a). Note that the solution {b ?` }b`=1 tends to be sparse [4], which contributes to reducing the computational cost in the test phase. We refer to the above method as Kullback-Leibler Importance Estimation Procedure (KLIEP). 3 (k) (k) Input: M = {mk | mk = {?` (x)}b`=1 }, ntr te nte {xtr i }i=1 , and {xj }j=1 Output: w(x) b ntr te nte Input: m = {?` (x)}b`=1 , {xtr i }i=1 , and {xj }j=1 Output: w(x) b Aj,` ?? ?`P (xte j ); tr 1 tr b` ?? ntr n i=1 ?` (xi ); Initialize ? (> 0) and ? (0 < ?  1); Repeat until convergence ? ?? ? + ?A> (1./A?); ? ?? ? + (1 ? b> ?)b/(b> b); ? ?? max(0, ?); ? ?? ?/(b> ?); end P w(x) b ?? b`=1 ?` ?` (x); nte te R Split {xte j }j=1 into R disjoint subsets {Xr }r=1 ; for each model m ? M for each split r = 1, . . . , R ntr te w br (x) ?? KLIEP(m, {xtr i }i=1 , {Xj }j6=r ); P 1 b Jr (m) ?? |X te | x?X te log w br (x); r r end PR b 1 b J(m) ?? R r=1 Jr (m); end b m b ?? argmaxm?M J(m); ntr te nte w(x) b ?? KLIEP(m, b {xtr i }i=1 , {xj }j=1 ); (a) KLIEP main code (b) KLIEP with model selection Figure 1: KLIEP algorithm in pseudo code. ?./? indicates the element-wise division and > denotes the transpose. Inequalities and the ?max? operation for a vector are applied element-wise. 2.3 Model Selection by Likelihood Cross Validation The performance of KLIEP depends on the choice of basis functions {?` (x)}b`=1 . Here we explain how they can be appropriately chosen from data samples. Since KLIEP is based on the maximization of the score J (see Eq.(2)), it would be natural to select the model such that J is maximized. The expectation over pte (x) involved in J can be numerically approximated by likelihood cross validation (LCV) as follows: First, divide the test samnte te R ples {xte br (x) from j }j=1 into R disjoint subsets {Xr }r=1 . Then obtain an importance estimate w te {Xj }j6=r and approximate the score J using Xrte as X 1 Jbr = log w br (x). te |Xr | te x?Xr We repeat this procedure for r = 1, 2, . . . , R, compute the average of Jbr over all r, and use the average Jb as an estimate of J: R 1 Xb b Jr . (4) J= R r=1 For model selection, we compute Jb for all model candidates (the basis functions {?` (x)}b`=1 in b A pseudo code of the LCV procedure is the current setting) and choose the one that minimizes J. summarized in Figure 1-(b) One of the potential limitations of CV in general is that it is not reliable in small sample cases since data splitting by CV further reduces the sample size. On the other hand, in our CV procedure, the data splitting is performed over the test input samples, not over the training samples. Since we typically have a large number of test input samples, our CV procedure does not suffer from the small sample problem. A good model may be chosen by the above CV procedure, given that a set of promising model candidates is prepared. As model candidates, we propose using a Gaussian kernel model centered at nte the test input points {xte j }j=1 , i.e., w(x) b = nte X ?` K? (x, xte ` ), `=1 where K? (x, x0 ) is the Gaussian kernel with kernel width ?:   kx ? x0 k2 0 K? (x, x ) = exp ? . 2? 2 4 (5) nte The reason why we chose the test input points {xte j }j=1 as the Gaussian centers, not the training ntr input points {xtr i }i=1 , is as follows. By definition, the importance w(x) tends to take large values if the training input density ptr (x) is small and the test input density pte (x) is large; conversely, w(x) tends to be small (i.e., close to zero) if ptr (x) is large and pte (x) is small. When a function is approximated by a Gaussian kernel model, many kernels may be needed in the region where the output of the target function is large; on the other hand, only a small number of kernels would be enough in the region where the output of the target function is close to zero. Following this heuristic, we decided to allocate many kernels at high test input density regions, which can be achieved by nte setting the Gaussian centers at the test input points {xte j }j=1 . ntr te nte Alternatively, we may locate (ntr +nte ) Gaussian kernels at both {xtr i }i=1 and {xj }j=1 . However, in our preliminary experiments, this did not further improve the performance, but slightly increased nte the computational cost. Since nte is typically very large, just using all the test input points {xte j }j=1 as Gaussian centers is already computationally rather demanding. To ease this problem, we practinte cally propose using a subset of {xte j }j=1 as Gaussian centers for computational efficiency, i.e., w(x) b = b X ?` K? (x, c` ), (6) `=1 nte where c` is a template point randomly chosen from {xte j }j=1 and b (? nte ) is a prefixed number. In the rest of this paper, we fix the number of template points at b = min(100, nte ), and optimize the kernel width ? by the above CV procedure. 3 Experiments In this section, we compare the experimental performance of KLIEP and existing approaches. 3.1 Importance Estimation for Artificial Data Sets Let ptr (x) be the d-dimensional Gaussian density with mean (0, 0, . . . , 0)> and covariance identity and pte (x) be the d-dimensional Gaussian density with mean (1, 0, . . . , 0)> and covariance identity. The task is to estimate the importance at training input points: wi = w(xtr i )= pte (xtr i ) tr ptr (xi ) for i = 1, 2, . . . , ntr . We compare the following methods: tr KLIEP(?): {wi }ni=1 are estimated by KLIEP with the Gaussian kernel model (6). Since the performance of KLIEP is dependent on the kernel width ?, we test several different values of ?. KLIEP(CV): The kernel width ? in KLIEP is chosen based on 5-fold LCV (see Section 2.3). tr KDE(CV): {wi }ni=1 are estimated through the kernel density estimator (KDE) with the Gaussian kernel. The kernel widths for the training and test densities are chosen separately based on 5-fold likelihood cross-validation. tr KMM(?): {wi }ni=1 are estimated by kernel mean matching (KMM) [6]. The performance of?KMM is dependent on tuning parameters such as B, , and ?. We set B = 1000 and  = ( ntr ? ? 1)/ ntr following the paper [6], and test several different values of ?. We used the CPLEX software for solving quadratic programs in the experiments. LogReg(?): Importance weights are estimated by logistic regression (LogReg) [2]. The Gaussian kernels are used as basis functions. Since the performance of LogReg is dependent on the kernel width ?, we test several different values of ?. We used the LIBLINEAR implementation of logistic regression for the experiments [7]. LogReg(CV): The kernel width ? in LogReg is chosen based on 5-fold CV. 5 ?3 10 ?4 10 KLIEP(0.5) KLIEP(2) KLIEP(7) KLIEP(CV) KDE(CV) KMM(0.1) KMM(1) KMM(10) LogReg(0.5) LogReg(2) LogReg(7) LogReg(CV) ?3 Average NMSE over 100 Trials (in Log Scale) Average NMSE over 100 Trials (in Log Scale) KLIEP(0.5) KLIEP(2) KLIEP(7) KLIEP(CV) KDE(CV) KMM(0.1) KMM(1) KMM(10) LogReg(0.5) LogReg(2) LogReg(7) LogReg(CV) ?5 10 10 ?4 10 ?5 10 ?6 10 ?6 10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 d (Input Dimension) 16 18 50 20 (a) When input dimension is changed 100 ntr (Number of Training Samples) 150 (b) When training sample size is changed Figure 2: NMSEs averaged over 100 trials in log scale. We fixed the number of test input points at nte = 1000 and consider the following two settings for the number ntr of training samples and the input dimension d: (a) ntr = 100 and d = 1, 2, . . . , 20, (b) d = 10 and ntr = 50, 60, . . . , 150. We run the experiments 100 times for each d, each ntr , and each method, and evaluate the quality tr of the importance estimates {w bi }ni=1 by the normalized mean squared error (NMSE): 2 ntr  1 X w bi wi Pntr NMSE = . ? Pntr ntr i=1 bi0 i0 =1 w i0 =1 wi0 NMSEs averaged over 100 trials are plotted in log scale in Figure 2. Figure 2(a) shows that the error of KDE(CV) sharply increases as the input dimension grows, while KLIEP, KMM, and LogReg with appropriate kernel widths tend to give smaller errors than KDE(CV). This would be the fruit of directly estimating the importance without going through density estimation. The graph also show that the performance of KLIEP, KMM, and LogReg is dependent on the kernel width ??the results of KLIEP(CV) and LogReg(CV) show that model selection is carried out reasonably well and KLIEP(CV) works significantly better than LogReg(CV). Figure 2(b) shows that the errors of all methods tend to decrease as the number of training samples grows. Again, KLIEP, KMM, and LogReg with appropriate kernel widths tend to give smaller errors than KDE(CV). Model selection in KLIEP(CV) and LogReg(CV) works reasonably well and KLIEP(CV) tends to give significantly smaller errors than LogReg(CV). Overall, KLIEP(CV) is shown to be a useful method in importance estimation. 3.2 Covariate Shift Adaptation with Regression and Classification Benchmark Data Sets Here we employ importance estimation methods for covariate shift adaptation in regression and classification benchmark problems (see Table 1). Each data set consists of input/output samples {(xk , yk )}nk=1 . We normalize all the input samples te nte n {xk }nk=1 into [0, 1]d and choose the test samples {(xte j , yj )}j=1 from the pool {(xk , yk )}k=1 as follows. We randomly choose one sample (xk , yk ) from the pool and accept this with probabil(c) (c) ity min(1, 4(xk )2 ), where xk is the c-th element of xk and c is randomly determined and fixed in each trial of experiments; then we remove xk from the pool regardless of its rejection or acceptance, and repeat this procedure until we accept nte samples. We choose the training samples tr ntr {(xtr i , yi )}i=1 uniformly from the rest. Intuitively, in this experiment, the test input density tends 6 (c) to be lower than the training input density when xk is small. We set the number of samples at tr ntr te nte ntr = 100 and nte = 500 for all data sets. Note that we only use {(xtr i , yi )}i=1 and {xj }j=1 n te for training regressors or classifiers; the test output values {yjte }j=1 are used only for evaluating the generalization performance. We use the following kernel model for regression or classification: fb(x; ?) = t X ?` Kh (x, m` ), `=1 where Kh (x, x0 ) is the Gaussian kernel (5) and m` is a template point randomly chosen from nte {xte j }j=1 . We set the number of kernels at t = 50. We learn the parameter ? by importanceweighted regularized least squares (IWRLS) [9]: "n # tr  2 X tr tr tr 2 bIW RLS ? argmin w(x b ? ) fb(x ; ?) ? y + ?k?k . (7) i ? i i i=1 bIW RLS is analytically given by The solution ? b = (K > W c K + ?I)?1 K > W c y, ? where I is the identity matrix and y = (y1 , y2 , . . . , yntr )> , Ki,` = Kh (xtr i , m` ), c W = diag (w b1 , w b2 , . . . , w bntr ) . The kernel width h and the regularization parameter ? in IWRLS (7) are chosen by 5-fold importance weighted CV (IWCV) [9]. We compute the IWCV score by   X 1 br (x), y , w(x)L b f |Zrtr | tr (x,y)?Zr where L (b y , y) =  (b y ? y)2 (Regression), 1 (1 ? sign{b y y}) (Classification). 2 We run the experiments 100 times for each data set and evaluate the mean test error: nte   1 X te L fb(xte ), y . j j nte j=1 The results are summarized in Table 1, where ?Uniform? denotes uniform weights, i.e., no importance weight is used. The table shows that KLIEP(CV) compares favorably with Uniform, implying that the importance weighted methods combined with KLIEP(CV) are useful for improving the prediction performance under covariate shift. KLIEP(CV) works much better than KDE(CV); actually KDE(CV) tends to be worse than Uniform, which may be due to high dimensionality. We tested 10 different values of the kernel width ? for KMM and described three representative results in the table. KLIEP(CV) is slightly better than KMM with the best kernel width. Finally, LogReg(CV) works reasonably well, but it sometimes performs poorly. Overall, we conclude that the proposed KLIEP(CV) is a promising method for covariate shift adaptation. 4 Conclusions In this paper, we addressed the problem of estimating the importance for covariate shift adaptation. The proposed method, called KLIEP, does not involve density estimation so it is more advantageous than a naive KDE-based approach particularly in high-dimensional problems. Compared with KMM 7 Table 1: Mean test error averaged over 100 trials. The numbers in the brackets are the standard deviation. All the error values are normalized so that the mean error by ?Uniform? (uniform weighting, or equivalently no importance weighting) is one. For each data set, the best method and comparable ones based on the Wilcoxon signed rank test at the significance level 5% are described in bold face. The upper half are regression data sets taken from DELVE and the lower half are classification data sets taken from IDA. ?KMM(?)? denotes KMM with kernel width ?. Data Dim Uniform kin-8fh kin-8fm kin-8nh kin-8nm abalone image ringnorm twonorm waveform Average 8 8 8 8 7 18 20 20 21 1.00(0.34) 1.00(0.39) 1.00(0.26) 1.00(0.30) 1.00(0.50) 1.00(0.51) 1.00(0.04) 1.00(0.58) 1.00(0.45) 1.00(0.38) KLIEP (CV) 0.95(0.31) 0.86(0.35) 0.99(0.22) 0.97(0.25) 0.94(0.67) 0.94(0.44) 0.99(0.06) 0.91(0.52) 0.93(0.34) 0.94(0.35) KDE (CV) 1.22(0.52) 1.12(0.57) 1.09(0.20) 1.14(0.26) 1.02(0.41) 0.98(0.45) 0.87(0.04) 1.16(0.71) 1.05(0.47) 1.07(0.40) KMM (0.01) 1.00(0.34) 1.00(0.39) 1.00(0.27) 1.00(0.30) 1.01(0.51) 0.97(0.50) 1.00(0.04) 0.99(0.50) 1.00(0.44) 1.00(0.36) KMM (0.3) 1.12(0.37) 0.98(0.46) 1.04(0.17) 1.09(0.23) 0.96(0.70) 0.97(0.45) 0.87(0.05) 0.86(0.55) 0.93(0.32) 0.98(0.37) KMM (1) 1.59(0.53) 1.95(1.24) 1.16(0.25) 1.20(0.22) 0.93(0.39) 1.09(0.54) 0.87(0.05) 0.99(0.70) 0.98(0.31) 1.20(0.47) LogReg (CV) 1.30(0.40) 1.29(0.58) 1.06(0.17) 1.13(0.25) 0.92(0.41) 0.99(0.48) 0.95(0.08) 0.94(0.59) 0.95(0.34) 1.06(0.37) which also directly gives importance estimates, KLIEP is practically more useful since it is equipped with a model selection procedure. Our experiments highlighted these advantages and therefore KLIEP is shown to be a promising method for covariate shift adaptation. In KLIEP, we modeled the importance function by a linear (or kernel) model, which resulted in a convex optimization problem with a sparse solution. However, our framework allows the use of any models. An interesting future direction to pursue would be to search for a class of models which has additional advantages. Finally, the range of application of importance weights is not limited to covariate shift adaptation. For example, the density ratio could be used for novelty detection. Exploring possible application areas will be important future directions. Acknowledgments This work was supported by MEXT (17700142 and 18300057), the Okawa Foundation, the Microsoft CORE3 Project, and the IBM Faculty Award. References [1] P. Baldi and S. Brunak. Bioinformatics: The Machine Learning Approach. MIT Press, Cambridge, 1998. [2] S. Bickel, M. Br?uckner, and T. Scheffer. Discriminative learning for differing training and test distributions. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2007. [3] S. Bickel and T. Scheffer. Dirichlet-enhanced spam filtering based on biased samples. In B. Sch?olkopf, J. Platt, and T. Hoffman, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [4] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004. [5] J. J. Heckman. Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47(1):153?162, 1979. [6] J. Huang, A. Smola, A. Gretton, K. M. Borgwardt, and B. Sch o? lkopf. Correcting sample selection bias by unlabeled data. In B. Sch?olkopf, J. Platt, and T. Hoffman, editors, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 19, pages 601?608. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2007. [7] C.-J. Lin, R. C. Weng, and S. S. Keerthi. Trust region Newton method for large-scale logistic regression. Technical report, Department of Computer Science, National Taiwan University, 2007. [8] H. Shimodaira. Improving predictive inference under covariate shift by weighting the log-likelihood function. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 90(2):227?244, 2000. [9] M. Sugiyama, M. Krauledat, and K.-R. Mu? ller. Covariate shift adaptation by importance weighted cross validation. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 8:985?1005, May 2007. [10] R. S. Sutton and G. A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998. 8
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Computational Equivalence of Fixed Points and No Regret Algorithms, and Convergence to Equilibria Satyen Kale Computer Science Department, Princeton University 35 Olden St. Princeton, NJ 08540 [email protected] Elad Hazan IBM Almaden Research Center 650 Harry Road San Jose, CA 95120 [email protected] Abstract We study the relation between notions of game-theoretic equilibria which are based on stability under a set of deviations, and empirical equilibria which are reached by rational players. Rational players are modeled by players using no regret algorithms, which guarantee that their payoff in the long run is close to the maximum they could hope to achieve by consistently deviating from the algorithm?s suggested action. We show that for a given set of deviations over the strategy set of a player, it is possible to efficiently approximate fixed points of a given deviation if and only if there exist efficient no regret algorithms resistant to the deviations. Further, we show that if all players use a no regret algorithm, then the empirical distribution of their plays converges to an equilibrium. 1 Introduction We consider a setting where a number of agents need to repeatedly make decisions in the face of uncertainty. In each round, the agent obtains a payoff based on the decision she chose. Each agent would like to be able to maximize her payoff. While this might seem like a natural objective, it may be impossible to achieve without placing restrictions on the kind of payoffs that can arise. For instance, if the payoffs were adversarially chosen, then the agent?s task would become essentially hopeless. In such a situation, one way for the agent to cope with the uncertainty is to aim for a relative benchmark rather an absolute one. The notion of regret minimization captures this intuition. We imagine that the agent has a choice of several well-defined ways to change her decision, and now the agent aims to maximize her payoff relative to what she could have obtained had she changed her decisions in a consistent manner. As an example of what we mean by consistent changes, a possible objective could be to maximize her payoff relative to the most she could have achieved by choosing some fixed decision in all the rounds. The difference between these payoffs is known as external regret in the game theory literature. Another notion is that of internal regret, which arises when the possible ways to change are the ones that switch from some decision i to another, j, whenever the agent chose decision i, leaving all other decisions unchanged. A learning algorithm for an agent is said to have no regret with respect to an associated set of decision modifiers (also called deviations) ? if the average payoff of an agent using the algorithm converges to the largest average payoff she would have achieved had she changed her decisions using a fixed decision modifier in all the rounds. Based on what set of decision modifiers are under consideration, various no regret algorithms are known (for e.g. Hannan [10] gave algorithms to minimize external regret, and Hart and Mas-Collel [11] give algorithms to minimize internal regret). 1 The reason no regret algorithms are so appealing, apart from the fact that they model rational behavior of agents in the face of uncertainty, is that in various cases it can be shown that using no regret algorithms guides the overall play towards a game theoretic equilibrium. For example, Freund and Schapire [7] show that in a zero-sum game, if all agents use a no external regret algorithm, then the empirical distribution of the play converges to the set of minimax equilibria. Similarly, Hart and Mas-Collel [11] show that if all agents use a no internal regret algorithm, then the empirical distribution of the play converges to the set of correlated equilibria. In general, given a set of decision modifiers ?, we can define a notion of game theoretic equilibrium that is based on the property of being stable under deviations specified by ?. This is a joint distribution on the agents? decisions that ensures that the expected payoff to any agent is no less than the most she could achieve if she decided to unilaterally (and consistently) decided to deviate from her suggested action using any decision modifier in ?. One can then show that if all agents use a ?-no regret algorithm, then the empirical distribution of the play converges to the set of ?-equilibria. This brings us to the question of whether it is possible to design no regret algorithms for various sets of decision modifiers ?. In this paper, we design algorithms which achieve no regret with respect to ? for a very general setting of arbitrary convex compact decision spaces, arbitrary concave payoff functions, and arbitrary continuous decision modifiers. Our method works as long as it is possible to compute approximate fixed points for (convex combinations) of decision modifiers in ?. Our algorithms are based on a connection to the framework of Online Convex Optimization (see, e.g. [18]) and we show how to apply known learning algorithms to obtain ?-no regret algorithms. The generality of our connection allows us to use various sophisticated Online Convex Optimization algorithms which can exploit various structural properties of the utility functions and guarantee a faster rate of convergence to the equilibrium. Previous work by Greenwald and Jafari [9] gave algorithms for the case when the decision space is the simplex of probability distributions over the agents? decisions, the payoff functions are linear, and the decision modifiers are also linear. Their algorithm, based on the work of Hart and MasCollel [11], uses a version of Blackwell?s Approachability Theorem, and also needs to computes fixed points of the decision modifiers. Since these modifiers are linear, it is possible to compute fixed points for them by computing the stationary distribution of an appropriate stochastic matrix (say, by computing its top eigenvector). Computing Brouwer fixed points of continuous functions is in general a very hard problem (it is PPAD-complete, as shown by Papadimitriou [15]). Fixed points are ubiquitous in game theory. Most common notions of equilibria in game theory are defined as the set of fixed points of a certain mapping. For example, Nash Equilibria (NE) are the set of fixed points of the best response mapping (appropriately defined to avoid ambiguity). The fact that Brouwer fixed points are hard to compute in general is no reason why computing specific fixed points should be hard (for instance, as mentioned earlier, computing fixed points of linear functions is easy via eigenvector computations). More specifically, could it be the case that the NE, being a fixed point of some well-specified mapping, is easy to compute? These hopes were dashed by the work of [6, 3] who showed that computing NE is as computationally difficult as finding fixed points in a general mapping: they show that computing NE in a two-player game is PPAD-complete. Further work showed that even computing an approximate NE is PPAD-complete [4]. Since our algorithms (and all previous ones as well) depend on computing (approximate) fixed points of various decision modifiers, the above discussion leads us to question whether this is necessary. We show in this paper that indeed it is: a ?-no-regret algorithm can be efficiently used to compute approximate fixed points of any convex combination of decision modifiers. This establishes an equivalence theorem, which is the main contribution of this paper: there exist efficient ?-no-regret algorithms if and only it is possible to efficiently compute fixed points of convex combinations of decision modifiers in ?. This equivalence theorem allows us to translate complexity theoretic lower bounds on computing fixed points to designing no regret algorithms. For instance, a Nash equilibrium can be obtained by applying Brouwer?s fixed point theorem to an appropriately defined continuous mapping from the compact convex set of pairs of the players? mixed strategies to itself. Thus, if ? contains this mapping, then it is PPAD-hard to design ?-no-regret algorithms. It was recently brought to our attention that Stolz and Lugosi [17], building on the work of Hart and Schmeidler [12], have also considered ?-no-regret algorithms. They also show how to design them 2 from fixed-point oracles, and proved convergence to equilibria under even more general conditions than we consider. Gordon, Greenwald, Marks, and Zinkevich [8] have also considered similar notions of regret and showed convergence to equilibria, in the special case when the deviations in ? can be represented as the composition of a fixed embedding into a higher dimensional space and an adjustable linear transformation. The focus of our results is on the computational aspect of such reductions, and the equivalence of fixed-points computation and no-regret algorithms. 2 2.1 Preliminaries Games and Equilibria We consider the following kinds of games. First, the set of strategies for the players of the game is a convex compact set. Second, the utility functions for the players are concave over their strategy sets. To avoid cumbersome notation, we restrict ourselves to two player games, although all of our results naturally extend to multi-player games. Formally, for i = 1, 2, player i plays points from a convex compact set Ki ? Rni . Her payoff is given by function ui : K1 ? K2 ? R, i.e. if x1 , x2 is the pair of strategies played by the two players, then the payoff to player i is given by ui (x1 , x2 ). We assume that u1 is a concave function of x1 for any fixed x2 , and similarly u2 is a concave function of x2 for any fixed x1 . We now define a notion of game theoretic equilibrium based on the property of being stable with respect to consistent deviations. By this, we mean an online game-playing strategy for the players that will guarantee that neither stands to gain if they decided to unilaterally, and consistently, deviate from their suggested moves. To model this, assume that each player i has a set of possible deviations ?i which is a finite1 set of continuous mappings ?i : Ki ? Ki . Let ? = (?1 , ?2 ). Let ? be a joint distribution on K1 ? K2 . If it is the case that for any deviation ?1 ? ?1 , player 1?s expected payoff obtained by sampling x1 using ? is always larger than her expected payoff obtained by deviating to ?1 (x1 ), then we call ? stable under deviations in ?1 . The distribution ? is said to be a ?-equilibrium if ? is stable under deviations in ?1 and ?2 . A similar definition appears in [12] and [17]. Definition 1 (?-equilibrium). A joint distribution ? over K1 ? K2 is called a ?-equilibrium if the following holds, for any ?1 ? ?1 , and for any ?2 ? ?2 : Z Z u1 (x1 , x2 )?(x1 , x2 ) ? u1 (?1 (x1 ), x2 )?(x1 , x2 ) Z Z u2 (x1 , x2 )?(x1 , x2 ) ? u2 (x1 , ?2 (x2 ))?(x1 , x2 ) We say that ? is a ?-approximate ?-equilibrium if the inequalities above are satisfied up to an additive error of ?. Intuitively, we imagine a repeated game between the two players, where at equilibrium, the players? moves are correlated by a signal, which could be the past history of the play, and various external factors. This signal samples a pair of moves from an equilibrium joint distribution over all pairs of moves, and suggests to each player individually only the move she is supposed to play. If no player stands to gain if she unilaterally, but consistently, used a deviation from her suggested move, then the distribution of the correlating signal is stable under the set of deviations, and is hence an equilibrium. Example 1: Correlated Equilibria. A standard 2-player game is obtained when the Ki are the simplices of distributions over some base sets of actions Ai and the utility functions ui are bilinear in x1 , x2 . If the sets ?i consist of the maps ?a,b : Ki ? Ki for every pair a, b ? Ai defined as ? if c = a ?0 ?a,b (x)[c] = xa + xb if c = b (1) ? xc otherwise 1 It is highly plausible that the results in this paper extend to the case where ? is infinite ? indeed, our results hold for any set of mappings ? which is obtained by taking all convex combinations of finitely many mappings ? but we restrict to finite ? in this paper for simplicity. 3 then it can be shown that any ?-equilibrium can be equivalently viewed as a correlated equilibrium of the game, and vice-versa. Example 2: The Stock Market game. Consider the following setting: there are two investors (the generalization to many investors is straightforward), who invest their wealth in n stocks. In each period, they choose portfolios x1 and x2 over the n stocks, and observe the stock returns. We model the stock returns as a function r of the portfolios x1 , x2 chosen by the investors, and it maps the portfolios to the vector of stock returns. We make the assumption that each player has a small influence on the market, and thus the function r is insensitive to the small perturbations in the input. The wealth gain for each investor i is r(x1 , x2 ) ? xi . The standard way to measure performance of an investment strategy is the logarithmic growth rate, viz. log(r(x1 , x2 ) ? xi ). We can now define the utility functions as ui (x1 , x2 ) = log(r(x1 , x2 ) ? xi ). Intuitively, this game models the setting in which the market prices are affected by the investments of the players. A natural goal for a good investment strategy would be to compare the wealth gain to that of the best fixed portfolio, i.e. ?i is the set of all constant maps. This was considered by Cover in his Universal Portfolio Framework [5]. Another possible goal would be to compare the wealth gained to that achievable by modifying the portfolios using the ?a,b maps above, as considered by [16]. In Section 3, we show that the stock market game admits algorithms that converge to an ?-equilibrium in O( 1? log 1? ) rounds, whereas all previous algorithms need O( ?12 ) rounds. 2.2 No regret algorithms The online learning framework we consider is called online convex optimization [18], in which there is a fixed convex compact feasible set K ? Rn and an arbitrary, unknown sequence of concave payoff functions f (1) , f (2) , . . . : K ? R. The decision maker must make a sequence of decisions, where the tth decision is a selection of a point x(t) ? K and obtains a payoff of f (t) (x(t) ) on period t. The decision maker can only use the previous points x(1) , . . . , x(t?1) , and the previous payoff functions f (1) , . . . , f (t?1) to choose the point x(t) . The performance measure we use to evaluate online algorithms is regret, defined as follows. The decision maker has a finite set of N decision modifiers ? which, as before, is a set of continuous mappings from K ? K. Then the regret for not using some deviation ? ? ? is the excess payoff the decision maker could have obtained if she had changed her points in each round by applying ?. Definition 2 (?-Regret). Let ? be a set of continuous functions from K ? K. Given a set of T concave utility functions f1 , ..., fT , define the ?-regret as Regret? (T ) = max ??? T X f (t) (?(x(t) )) ? t=1 T X f (t) (x(t) ). t=1 Two specific examples of ?-regret deserve mention. The first one is ?external regret?, which is defined when ? is the set of all constant mappings from K to itself. The second one is ?internal regret?, which is defined when K is the simplex of distributions over some base set of actions A, and ? is the set of the ?a,b functions (defined in (1)) for all pairs a, b ? A. A desirable property of an algorithm for Online Convex Optimization is Hannan consistency: the regret, as a function of the number of rounds T , is sublinear. This implies that the average per iteration payoff of the algorithm converges to the average payoff of a clairvoyant algorithm that uses the best deviation in hindsight to change the point in every round. For the purpose of this paper, we require a slightly stronger property for an algorithm, viz. that the regret is polynomially sublinear as a function of T . Definition 3 (No ?-regret algorithm). A no ?-regret algorithm is one which, given any sequence of concave payoff functions f (1) , f (2) , . . ., generates a sequence of points x(1) , x(2) , . . . ? K such that for all T = 1, 2, . . ., Regret? (T ) = O(T 1?c ) for some constant c > 0. Such an algorithm will be called efficient if it computes x(t) in poly(n, N, t, L) time. In the above definition, L is a description length parameter for K, defined appropriately depending on how the set K is represented. For instance, if K is the n-dimensional probability simplex, then 4 L = n. If K is specified by means of a separation oracle and inner and outer radii r and R, then L = log(R/r), and we allow poly(n, N, t, L) calls to the separation oracle in each iteration. The relatively new framework of Online Convex Optimization (OCO) has received much attention recently in the machine learning community. Our no ?-regret algorithms can use any of wide variety of algorithms for OCO. In this paper, we will use Exponentiated Gradient (EG) algorithm ([14], [1]), which has the following (external) regret bound: Theorem 1. Let the domain K be the simplex of distributions over a base set of size n. Let G? be an upper bound on the L? norm of the gradients of the payoff functions, i.e. G? ? supx?K k?f (t) (x)k? . Then the EG algorithm generates points x(1) , . . . , x(T ) such that max x?K T X t=1 f (t) (x) ? T X f (t) (x(t) ) ? O(G? p log(n)T ) t=1 If the utility functions are strictly ? concave rather than linear, even stronger regret bounds, which depend on log(T ) rather than T , are known [13]. While most of the literature on online convex optimization focuses on external regret, it was observed that any Online Convex Optimization algorithm for external regret can be converted to an internal regret algorithm (for example, see [2], [16]). 2.3 Fixed Points As mentioned in the introduction, our no regret algorithms depend on computing fixed points of the relevant mappings. For a given set of deviations ?, denote by CH(?) the set of all convex combinations of deviations in ?, i.e. nP o P CH(?) = ??? ?? ? : ?? ? 0 and ??? ?? = 1 . Since each map ? ? CH(?) is a continuous function from K ? K, and K is a convex compact domain, by Brouwer?s fixed theorem, ? has a fixed point in K, i.e. there exists a point x ? K such that ?(x) = x. We consider algorithms which approximate fixed points for a given map in the following sense. Definition 4 (FPTAS for fixed points of deviations). Let ? be a set of N continuous functions from K ? K. A fully polynomial time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for fixed points of ? is an algorithm, which, given any function ? ? CH(?) and an error parameter ? > 0, computes a point x ? K such that k?(x) ? xk ? ? in poly(n, N, L, 1? ) time. 3 Convergence of no ?-regret algorithms to ?-equilibria In this section we prove that if the players use no ?-regret algorithms, then the empirical distribution of the moves converges to a ?-equilibrium. [11] shows that if players use no internal regret algorithms, then the empirical distribution of the moves converges to a correlated equilibrium. This was generalized by [9] to any set of linear transformations ?. The more general setting of this paper also follows easily from the definitions. A similar theorem was also proved in [17]. The advantage of this general setting is that the connection to online convex optimization allows for faster rates of convergence using recent online learning techniques. We give an example of a natural game theoretic setting with faster convergence rate below. Theorem 2. If each player i chooses moves using a no ?i -regret algorithms, then the empirical game distribution of the players? moves converges to a ?-equilibrium. Further, an ?-approximate ?-equilibrium is reached after T iterations for the first T which satisfies T1 Regret? (T ) ? ?. Proof. Consider the first player. In each game iteration t, let (x1 (t) , x2 (t) ) be the pair of moves played by the two players. From player 1?s point of view, the payoff function she obtains, f (t) , is the following: ?x ? K1 : f (t) (x) , u1 (x, x2 (t) ). 5 Note that this function is concave by assumption. Then we have, by definition 3, X X Regret?1 (T ) = max f (t) (?(x1 (t) )) ? f (t) (x1 (t) ). ??? t t Rewriting this in terms of the original utility function, and scaling by the number of iterations we get T T 1X 1X 1 u1 (x1 (t) , x2 (t) ) ? u1 (?(x1 (t) ), x2 (t) ) ? Regret?1 (T ). T t=1 T t=1 T Denote by ?(T ) the empirical distribution of the played strategies till iteration T , i.e. the distribution which puts a probability mass of T1 on all pairs (x1 (t) , x2 (t) ) for t = 1, 2, . . . , T . Then, the above inequality can be rewritten as Z Z 1 (T ) u1 (x1 , x2 )? (x1 , x2 ) ? u1 (?(x1 ), x2 )?(T ) (x1 , x2 ) ? Regret?1 (T ). T A similar inequality holds for player 2 as well. Now assume that both players use no regret algorithms, which ensure that Regret?i (T ) ? O(T 1?c ) for some constant c > 0. Hence as T ? ?, we have T1 Regret?i (T ) ? 0. Thus ?(T ) converges to a ?-equilibrium. Also, ?(T ) is a ?-approximate equilibrium as soon as T is large enough so that T1 Regret?1 (T ) and T1 Regret?2 (T ) are less than ?, 1 i.e. T ? ?( ?1/c ). A corollary of Theorem 2 is that we can obtain faster rates of convergence using recent online learning techniques, when the payoff functions are non-linear. This is natural in many situations, since risk aversion is associated with the concavity of utility functions. Corollary 3. For the stock market game as defined in section 2.1, there exists no regret algorithms which guarantee convergence to an ?-equilibrium in O( 1? log 1? ) iterations. Proof sketch. The utility functions observed by the investor i in the stock market game are of the form ui (x1 , x2 ) = log(r(x1 , x2 ) ? xi ). This logarithmic utility function is exp-concave, by the assumption on the insensitivity of the function r to small perturbations in the input. Thus the online algorithm of [5], or the more efficient algorithms of [13] can be applied. In the full version of this paper, we show that Lemma 6 can be modified to obtain algorithms with Regret?i (T ) = O(log T ). By the Theorem 2 above, the investors reach ?-equilibrium in O( 1? log 1? ) iterations. 4 Computational Equivalence of Fixed Points and No Regret algorithms In this section we prove our main result on the computational equivalence of computing fixed points and designing no regret algorithms. By the result of the previous section, players using no regret algorithms converge to equilibria. We assume that the payoff functions f (t) are scaled so that the (L2 ) norm of their gradients is bounded by 1, i.e. k?f (t) k ? 1. Our main theorem is the following: Theorem 4. Let ? be a given finite set of deviations. Then there is a FPTAS for fixed points of ? if and only if there exists an efficient no ?-regret algorithm. The first direction of the theorem is proved by designing utility functions for which the no regret property will imply convergence to an approximate fixed point of the corresponding transformations. The proof crucially depends on the fact that no regret algorithms have the stringent requirement that their worst case regret, against arbitrary adversarially chosen payoff functions, is sublinear as a function of the number of the rounds. Lemma 5. If there exists a no ?-regret algorithm then there exists an FPTAS for fixed points of ?. Proof. Let ?0 ? CH(?) be a given mapping whose fixed point we wish to compute. Let ? be a given error parameter. 6 At iteration t, let x(t) be the point chosen by A. If k?0 (x(t) ) ? x(t) k ? ?, we can stop, because we have found an approximate fixed point. Else, supply A with the following payoff function: (?0 (x(t) ) ? x(t) )> (x ? x(t) ) k?0 (x(t) ) ? x(t) k f (t) (x) , This is a linear function, with k?f (t) (x)k = 1. Also, f (t) (x(t) ) = 0, and f (t) (?0 (x(t) )) = k?0 (x(t) ) ? x(t) k ? ?. After T iterations, since ?0 is a convex combination of functions in ?, and since all the f (t) are linear functions, we have max ??? T X f (t) (?(x(t) )) ? t=1 T X f (t) (?0 (x(t) )) ? ?T. t=1 Thus, Regret? (T ) = max X ??? f (t) (?(x(t) )) ? t X f (t) (x(t) ) ? ?T. (2) t Since A is a no-regret algorithm, assume that A ensures that Regret? (T ) = O(T 1?c ) for some 1 constant c > 0. Thus, when T = ?( ?1/c ) the lower bound (2) on the regret cannot hold unless we have already found an ?-approximate fixed point of ?0 . The second direction is on the lines of the algorithms of [2] and [16] which use fixed point computations to obtain no internal regret algorithms. Lemma 6. If there is an FPTAS for fixed points of ?, then?there is an efficient no ?-regret algorithm. In fact, the algorithm guarantees that Regret? (T ) = O( T ). 2 Proof. We reduce the given OCO problem to an ?inner? OCO problem. The ?outer? OCO problem is the original one. We use a no external regret algorithm for the inner OCO problem to generate points in K for the outer one, and use the payoff functions obtained in the outer OCO problem to generate appropriate payoff functions for the inner one. Let ? = {?1 , ?2 , . . . , ?N }. The domain for the inner OCO problem is the simplex of all distributions on ?, denoted ?N . For a distribution ? ? ?N , let ?i be the probability measure assigned to ?i in the distribution ?. There is a natural mapping from ?N ? CH(?): for any ? ? ?N , denote PN by ?? the function i=1 ?i ?i ? CH(?). Let x(t) ? K be the point used in the outer OCO problem in the tth round, and let f (t) be the obtained payoff function. Then the payoff functions for the inner OCO problem is the function g (t) : ?N ? R defined as follows: ?? ? ?N : g (t) (?) , f (t) (?? (x(t) )). We now apply the Exponentiated Gradient (EG) algorithm (see Section 2.2) to the inner OCO prob(t) lem. To analyze the algorithm, we bound k?gP k? as follows. Let x0 be an arbitrary point in K. P (t) (t) (t) We can rewrite g as g (?) = f (x0 + i ?i (?i (x(t) ) ? x0 )), because i ?i = 1. Then, ?g (t) = X(t) ?f (t) (?? (x(t) )), where X(t) is an N ? n matrix whose ith row is (?i (x(t) ) ? x0 )> . Thus, k?g (t) k? = max |(?i (x(t) )?x0 )> ?f (t) (?? (x(t) ))| ? k?i (x(t) )?x0 kk?f (t) (?? (x(t) ))k ? 1. i The last inequality follows because we assumed that the diameter of K is bounded by 1, and the norm of the gradient of f (t) is also bounded by 1. Let ?(t) be the distribution on ? produced by the EG algorithm at time t. Now, the point x(t) is computed by running the FPTAS for computing an ?1t -approximate fixed point of the function ??(t) , i.e. we have k??(t) (x(t) ) ? x(t) k ? 1 ? . t 2 In the full version of the paper, we improve the regret bound to O(log T ) under some stronger concavity assumptions on the payoff functions. 7 Now, using the definition of the g (t) functions, and by the regret bound for the EG algorithm, we have that for any fixed distribution ? ? ?N , T X f (t) (?? (x(t) ))? t=1 T X f (t) (??(t) (x(t) )) = t=1 Since k?f (t) T X g (t) (?)? t=1 T X p g (t) (?(t) ) ? O( log(N )T ). (3) t=1 k ? 1, 1 f (t) (??(t) (x(t) )) ? f (t) (x(t) ) ? k??(t) (x(t) ) ? x(t) k ? ? . t (4) Summing (4) from t = 1 to T , and adding to (3), we get that for any distribution ? over ?, T X f (t) (?? (x(t) )) ? t=1 X t T X p p 1 ? = O( log(N )T ). f (t) (x(t) ) ? O( log(N )T ) + t t=1 In particular, by concentrating ? on any pgiven ?i , the above inequality implies that PT PT (t) (?i (x(t) )) ? t=1 f (t) (x(t) ) ? O( log(N )T ), and thus we have a no ?-regret alt=1 f gorithm. References [1] S. Arora, E. Hazan, and S. Kale. The multiplicative weights update method: a meta algorithm and applications. Manuscript, 2005. [2] A. Blum and Y. Mansour. From external to internal regret. In COLT, pages 621?636, 2005. [3] X. Chen and X. Deng. Settling the complexity of two-player nash equilibrium. In 47th FOCS, pages 261?272, 2006. [4] X. Chen, X. Deng, and S-H. Teng. Computing nash equilibria: Approximation and smoothed complexity. focs, 0:603?612, 2006. [5] T. Cover. Universal portfolios. Math. Finance, 1:1?19, 1991. [6] C. Daskalakis, P. W. Goldberg, and C. H. Papadimitriou. The complexity of computing a nash equilibrium. In 38th STOC, pages 71?78, 2006. [7] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. Adaptive game playing using multiplicative weights. Games and Economic Behavior, 29:79?103, 1999. [8] G. Gordon, A. Greenwald, C. Marks, and M. Zinkevich. No-regret learning in convex games. Brown University Tech Report CS-07-10, 2007. [9] A. Greenwald and A. Jafari. A general class of no-regret learning algorithms and game-theoretic equilibria, 2003. [10] J. Hannan. Approximation to bayes risk in repeated play. In M. Dresher, A. W. Tucker, and P. Wolfe, editors, Contributions to the Theory of Games, volume III, pages 97?139, 1957. [11] S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell. A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium. Econometrica, 68(5):1127?1150, 2000. [12] S. Hart and D. Schmeidler. Existence of correlated equilibria. Mathematics of Operations Research, 14(1):18?25, 1989. [13] E. Hazan, A. Kalai, S. Kale, and A. Agarwal. Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization. In 19?th COLT, 2006. [14] J. Kivinen and M. K. Warmuth. Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors. Inf. Comput., 132(1):1?63, 1997. [15] C. H. Papadimitriou. On the complexity of the parity argument and other inefficient proofs of existence. J. Comput. Syst. Sci., 48(3):498?532, 1994. [16] G. Stoltz and G. Lugosi. Internal regret in on-line portfolio selection. Machine Learning, 59:125?159, 2005. [17] G. Stoltz and G. Lugosi. Learning correlated equilibria in games with compact sets of strategies. Games and Economic Behavior, 59:187?208, 2007. [18] M. Zinkevich. Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In 20th ICML, pages 928?936, 2003. 8
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Learning by Combining Memorization and Gradient Descent John C. Platt Synaptics, Inc. 2860 Zanker Road, Suite 206 San Jose, CA 95134 ABSTRACT We have created a radial basis function network that allocates a new computational unit whenever an unusual pattern is presented to the network. The network learns by allocating new units and adjusting the parameters of existing units. If the network performs poorly on a presented pattern, then a new unit is allocated which memorizes the response to the presented pattern. If the network performs well on a presented pattern, then the network parameters are updated using standard LMS gradient descent. For predicting the Mackey Glass chaotic time series, our network learns much faster than do those using back-propagation and uses a comparable number of synapses. 1 INTRODUCTION Currently, networks that perform function interpolation tend to fall into one of two categories: networks that use gradient descent for learning (e.g., back-propagation), and constructive networks that use memorization for learning (e.g., k-nearest neighbors). Networks that use gradient descent for learning tend to form very compact representations, but use many learning cycles to find that representation. Networks that memorize their inputs need to only be exposed to examples once, but grow linearly in the training set size. The network presented here strikes a compromise between memorization and gradient descent. It uses gradient descent for the "easy" input vectors and memorization for the "hard" input vectors. If the network performs well on a particular input 714 Learning by Combining Memorization and Gradient Descent vector, or the particular input vector is already close to a stored vector, then the network adjusts its parameters using gradient descent. Otherwise, it memorizes the input vector and the corresponding output vector by allocating a new unit. The explicit storage of an input-output pair means that this pair can be used immediately to improve the performance of the system, instead of merely using that information for gradient descent. The network, called the resource-allocation network (RAN), uses units whose response is localized in input space. A unit with a non-local response needs to undergo gradient descent, because it has a non-zero output for a large fraction of the training data. Because RAN is a constructive network, it automatically adjusts the number of units to reflect the complexity of the function that is being interpolated. Fixed-size networks either use too few units, in which case the network memorizes poorly, or too many, in which case the network generalizes poorly. Parzen windows and K-nearest neighbors both require a number of stored patterns that grow linearly with the number of presented patterns. With RAN, the number of stored patterns grows sublinearly, and eventually reaches a maximum. 1.1 PREVIOUS WORK Previous workers have used networks with localized basis functions (Broomhead & Lowe, 1988) (Moody & Darken, 1988 & 89) (Poggio & Girosi, 1990). Moody has further extended his work by incorporating a hash table lookup (Moody, 1989). The hash table is a resource-allocating network where the values in the hash table only become non-zero if the entry in the hash table is activated by the corresponding presence of non-zero input probability. The RAN adjusts the centers of the Gaussian units based on the error at the output, like (Poggio & Girosi, 1990). Networks with centers placed on a high-dimensional grid, such as (Broomhead & Lowe, 1988) and (Moody, 1989), or networks that use unsupervised clustering for center placement, such as (Moody & Darken, 1988 & 89) generate larger networks than RAN, because they cannot move the centers to increase the accuracy. Previous workers have created function interpolation networks that allocate fewer units than the size of training set. Cascade-correlation (Fahlman & Lebiere, 1990), SONN (Tenorio & Lee, 1989), and MARS (Friedman, 1988) all construct networks by adding additional units. These algorithms work well. The RAN algorithm improves on these algorithms by making the addition of a unit as simple as possible. RAN uses simple algebra to find the parameters of a new unit, while cascadecorrelation and MARS use gradient descent and SONN uses simulated annealing. 2 THE ALGORITHM This section describes a resource-allocating network (RAN), which consists of a network, a strategy for allocating new units, and a learning rule for refining the network. 2.1 THE NETWORK The RAN is a two-layer radial-basis-function network. The first layer consists of 715 716 Platt units that respond to only a local region of the space of input values. The second layer linearly aggregates outputs from these units and creates the function that approximates the input-output mapping over the entire space. A simple function that implements a locally tuned unit is a Gaussian: Zj = L(Cjk - h)2, (1) k Xj = exp( -Zj /wJ). We use a C 1 continuous polynomial approximation to speed up the algorithm, without loss of network accuracy: if z?J < qw?' J' otherwise; where q (2) = 2.67 is chosen empirically to make the best fit to a Gaussian. Each output of the network Yi is a sum of the outputs Xj, each weighted by the synaptic strength h ij plus a global polynomial. The Xj represent information about local parts of the space, while the polynomial represents global information: Yi = E hijXj + E Liklk + Ii? j (3) k The h ij Xj term can be thought of as a bump that is added or subtracted to the polynomial term Lk Likh + Ii to yield the desired function. The linear term is useful when the function has a strong linear component. In the results section, the Mackey-Glass equation was predicted with only a constant term. 2.2 THE LEARNING ALGORITHM The network starts with a blank slate: no patterns are yet stored. As patterns are presented to it, the network chooses to store some of them. At any given point the network has a current state, which reflects the patterns that have been stored previously. The allocator may allocate a new unit to memorize a pattern. After the new unit is allocated, the network output is equal to the desired output f. Let the index of this new unit be n. The peak of the response of the newly allocated unit is set to the memorized input vector, (4) The linear synapses on the second layer are set to the difference between the output of the network and the novel output, (5) Learning by Combining Memorization and Gradient Descent The width of the response of the new unit is proportional to the distance from the nearest stored vector to the novel input vector, (6) where K is an overlap factor. As more and more. K grows larger, the responses of the units overlap The RAN uses a two-part memorization condition. An input-output pair should be memorized if the input is far away from existing centers, III - Cne ares t II > oCt), (I, f) (7) and if the difference between the desired output and the output of the network is large (8) Ilf - y(l) II > f. Typically, f is a desired accuracy of output of the network . Errors larger than f are immediately corrected by the allocation of a new unit, while errors smaller than f are gradually repaired using gradient descent. The distance oCt) is the scale of resolution that the network is fitting at the tth input presentation. The learning starts with oCt) = 0max, which is the largest length scale of interest, typically the size of the entire input space of non-zero probability density. The distance oCt) shrinks until the it reaches Omin, which is the smallest length scale of interest. The network will average over features that are smaller than Omin. We used a function: (9) 6(t) = max(omax exp( -tiT), Omin), where T is a decay constant. At first, the system creates a coarse representation of the function, then refines the representation by allocating units with smaller and smaller widths. Finally, when the system has learned the entire function to the desired accuracy and length scale, it stops allocating new units altogether. The two-part memorization condition is necessary for creating a compact network. If only condition (7) is used, then the network will allocate units instead of using gradient descent to correct small errors. If only condition (8) is used, then fine-scale units may be allocated in order to represent coarse-scale features, which is wasteful. By allocating new units the RAN eventually represents the desired function ever more closely as the network is trained. Fewer units are needed for a given accuracy if the first-layer synapses Cj 1:, the second-level synapses h ij , and the parameters for the global polynomial'Yi and Lil: are adjusted to decrease the error: ? lIil - fll2 (Widrow & Hoff, 1960). We use gradient descent on the second-layer synapses to decrease the error whenever a new unit is not allocated: = Ahij = a(1i - Yi)Xj, A'Yi = a(Ti - Yi), ALiI: = a(Ti - Yi)h. (10) 717 718 Platt In addition, we adjust the centers of the responses of units to decrease the error: (11) Equation (11) is derived from gradient descent and equation (1). Empirically, equation (11) also works for the polynomial approximation (2). RESULTS 3 One application of an interpolating RAN is to predict complex time series. As a test case, a chaotic time series can be generated with a nonlinear algebraic or differential equation. Such a series has some short-range time coherence, but longterm prediction is very difficult. The RAN was tested on a particular chaotic time series created by the Mackey-Glass delay-difference equation: x(t + 1) for a = 0.2, b = 0.1, and r x(t - r) = (1- b)x(t) + a l+xt-r ( )10' = 17. (12) We trained the network to predict the value x(T + dT), given the values x(T), x(T - 6), x(T - 12), and x(T - 18) as inputs. The network was tested using two different learning modes: off-line learning with a limited amount of data, and on-line learning with a large amount of data. The Mackey-Glass equation has been learned off-line, by other workers, using the backpropagation algorithm (Lapedes & Farber, 1987), and radial basis functions (Moody & Darken, 1989). We used RAN to predict the Mackey-Glass equations with the 0.02, 400 learning epochs, 6max 0.7, K, 0.87 and following parameters: a 6m in = 0.07 reached after 100 epochs. RAN was simulated using f = 0.02 and f = 0.05. In all cases, dT = 85. = = = Figure 1 shows the efficiency of the various learning algorithms: the smallest, most accurate algorithms are towards the lower left. When optimized for size of network (f = 0.05), the RAN has about as many weights as back-propagation and is just as accurate. The efficiency of RAN is roughly the same as back-propagation, but requires much less computation: RAN takes approximately 8 minutes of SUN-4 CPU time to reach the accuracy listed in figure 4, while back-propagation took approximately 30-60 minutes of Cray X-MP time. The Mackey-Glass equation has been learned using on-line techniques by hashing B-splines (Moody, 1989). We used on-line RAN using the following parameters; a 0.05, 6max 0.7, 6m in 0.07, K, 0.87, and 6m in reached after 5000 input presentations. Table 1 compares the on-line error versus the size of network for both RAN and the hashing B-spline (Moody, personal communication). In both cases, dT 50. The RAN algorithm has similar accuracy to the hashing B-splines, but the number of units allocated is between a factor of 2 and 8 smaller. = = = = = For more detailed results on the Mackey-Glass equation, see (Platt, 1991). Learning by Combining Memorization and Gradient Descent o =RAN ... = hashing B-spline o =standard RBF ? =K-means RBF * =back-propagation - __________ o -+____________*-__________ 100 1000 o~ 10000 ~ 100000 Nwnber of Weights Figure 1: The error on a test set versus the size of the network. Back-propagation stores the prediction function very compactly and accurately, but takes a large amount of computation to form the compact representation. RAN is as compact and accurate as back-propagation, but uses much less computation to form its representation. Table 1: Comparison between RAN and hashing B-splines Method RAN, RAN, f = 0.05 f = 0.02 Hashing B-spline 1 level of hierarchy Hashing B-spline 2 levels of hierarchy 4 Number of Units Normalized RMS Error 50 143 0.071 0.054 284 0.074 1166 0.044 CONCLUSIONS There are various desirable attributes for a network that learns: it should learn quickly, it should learn accurately, and it should form a compact representation. Formation of a compact representation is particularly important for networks that are implemented in hardware, because silicon area is at a premium. A compact representation is also important for statistical reasons: a network that has too many parameters can overfit data and generalize poorly. 719 720 Platt Many previous network algorithms either learned quickly at the expense of a compact representation, or formed a compact representation only after laborious computation. The RAN is a network that can find a compact representation with a reasonable amount of computation. Acknowledgements Thanks to Carver Mead, Carl Ruoff, and Fernando Pineda for useful comments on the paper. Special thanks to John Moody who not only provided useful comments on the paper, but also provided data on the hashing B-splines. References Broomhead, D., Lowe, D., 1988, Multivariable function interpolation and adaptive networks, Complex Systems, 2, 321-355. Fahlman, S. E., Lebiere, C., 1990, The Cascade-Correlation Learning Architecture, In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2, D. Touretzky, ed., 524532, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo. Friedman, J. H., 1988, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Tech. Report LCSI02. Lapedes, A., Farber, R., 1987, Nonlinear Signal Processing Using Neural Networks: Prediction and System Modeling, Technical Report LA-UR-87-2662, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. Moody, J, Darken, C., 1988, Learning with Localized Receptive Fields, In: Proceedings of the 1988 Connectionist Models Summer School, D. Touretzky, G. Hinton, T. Sejnowski, eds., 133-143, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo. Moody, J, Darken, C., 1989, Fast Learning in Networks of Locally-Tuned Processing Units, Neural Computation, 1(2), 281-294. Moody, J., 1989, Fast Learning in Multi-Resolution Hierarchies, In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1, D. Touretzky, ed., 29-39, MorganKaufmann, San Mateo. Platt., J., 1991, A Resource-Allocating Network for Function Interpolation, Neural Computation, 3(2), to appear. Poggio, T., Girosi, F., 1990, Regularization Algorithms for Learning that are Equivalent to Multilayer Networks, Science, 247, 978-982. Powell, M. J. D., 1987, Radial Basis Functions for Multivariable Interpolation: A Review, In: Algorithms for Approximation, J. C. Mason, M. G. Cox, eds., Clarendon Press, Oxford. Tenorio, M. F., Lee, W., 1989, Self-Organizing Neural Networks for the Identification Problem, In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1, D. Touretzky, ed., 57-64, Morgan-Kaufmann, San Mateo. Widrow, B., Hoff, M., 1960, Adaptive Switching Circuits, In: 1960 IRE WESCON Convention Record, 96-104, IRE, New York.
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Theoretical Analysis of Heuristic Search Methods for Online POMDPs St?ephane Ross McGill University Montr?eal, Qc, Canada [email protected] Joelle Pineau McGill University Montr?eal, Qc, Canada [email protected] Brahim Chaib-draa Laval University Qu?ebec, Qc, Canada [email protected] Abstract Planning in partially observable environments remains a challenging problem, despite significant recent advances in offline approximation techniques. A few online methods have also been proposed recently, and proven to be remarkably scalable, but without the theoretical guarantees of their offline counterparts. Thus it seems natural to try to unify offline and online techniques, preserving the theoretical properties of the former, and exploiting the scalability of the latter. In this paper, we provide theoretical guarantees on an anytime algorithm for POMDPs which aims to reduce the error made by approximate offline value iteration algorithms through the use of an efficient online searching procedure. The algorithm uses search heuristics based on an error analysis of lookahead search, to guide the online search towards reachable beliefs with the most potential to reduce error. We provide a general theorem showing that these search heuristics are admissible, and lead to complete and ?-optimal algorithms. This is, to the best of our knowledge, the strongest theoretical result available for online POMDP solution methods. We also provide empirical evidence showing that our approach is also practical, and can find (provably) near-optimal solutions in reasonable time. 1 Introduction Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a powerful model for sequential decision making under state uncertainty. However exact solutions are intractable in most domains featuring more than a few dozen actions and observations. Significant efforts have been devoted to developing approximate offline algorithms for larger POMDPs [1, 2, 3, 4]. Most of these methods compute a policy over the entire belief space. This is both an advantage and a liability. On the one hand, it allows good generalization to unseen beliefs, and this has been key to solving relatively large domains. Yet it makes these methods impractical for problems where the state space is too large to enumerate. A number of compression techniques have been proposed, which handle large state spaces by projecting into a sub-dimensional representation [5, 6]. Alternately online methods are also available [7, 8, 9, 10, 11]. These achieve scalability by planning only at execution time, thus allowing the agent to only consider belief states that can be reached over some (small) finite planning horizon. However despite good empirical performance, both classes of approaches lack theoretical guarantees on the approximation. So it would seem we are constrained to either solving small to mid-size problems (near-)optimally, or solving large problems possibly badly. This paper suggests otherwise, arguing that by combining offline and online techniques, we can preserve the theoretical properties of the former, while exploiting the scalability of the latter. In previous work [11], we introduced an anytime algorithm for POMDPs which aims to reduce the error made by approximate offline value iteration algorithms through the use of an efficient online searching procedure. The algorithm uses search heuristics based on an error analysis of lookahead search, to guide the online search towards reachable beliefs with the most potential to reduce error. In this paper, we derive formally the heuristics from our error minimization point of view and provide theoretical results showing that these search heuristics are admissible, and lead to complete and ?optimal algorithms. This is, to the best of our knowledge, the strongest theoretical result available for online POMDP solution methods. Furthermore the approach works well with factored state representations, thus further enhancing scalability, as suggested by earlier work [2]. We also provide empirical evidence showing that our approach is computationally practical, and can find (provably) near-optimal solutions within a smaller overall time than previous online methods. 2 Background: POMDP A POMDP is defined by a tuple (S, A, ?, T, R, O, ?) where S is the state space, A is the action set, ? is the observation set, T : S ? A ? S ? [0, 1] is the state-to-state transition function, R : S ? A ? R is the reward function, O : ? ? A ? S ? [0, 1] is the observation function, and ? is the discount factor. In a POMDP, the agent often does not know the current state with full certainty, since observations provide only a partial indicator of state. To deal with this uncertainty, the agent maintains a belief state b(s), which expresses the probability that the agent is in each state at a given time step. After each step, the belief state b is updated usingPBayes rule. We denote the belief update function b? = ? (b, a, o), defined as b? (s? ) = ?O(o, a, s? ) s?S T (s, a, s? )b(s), where P ? is a normalization constant ensuring s?S b? (s) = 1. Solving a POMDP consists in finding an optimal policy, ? ? : ?S ? A, which specifies the best action a to do in every belief state b, that maximizes the expected return (i.e., expected sum of discounted rewards over the planning horizon) of the agent. We can find the optimal policy by computing the optimal value of a belief state over the planning horizon. P For the infinite horizon, the optimal value function is defined as V ? (b) = maxa?A [R(b, a) + ? o?? P (o|b, a)V ? (? (b, a, o))], where R(b, a) represents the expected immediate reward of doing action a in belief state b and P (o|b, a) is the probability of observingPo after doing action P a in belief state b. This probability can be computed according to P (o|b, a) = s? ?S O(o, a, s? ) s?S T (s, a, s? )b(s). We also denote the value Q? (b, a) of a particular action a in belief state b, as the return P we will obtain if we perform a in b and then follow the optimal policy Q? (b, a) = R(b, a) + ? o?? P (o|b, a)V ? (? (b, a, o)). Using this, we can define the optimal policy ? ? (b) = argmaxa?A Q? (b, a). While any POMDP problem has infinitely many belief states, it has been shown that the optimal value function of a finite-horizon POMDP is piecewise linear and convex. Thus we can define the optimal value function and policy of a finite-horizon POMDP using a finite set of |S|-dimensional hyper plans, called ?-vectors, over the belief state space. As a result, exact offline value iteration algorithms are able to compute V ? in a finite amount of time, but the complexity can be very high. Most approximate offline value iteration algorithms achieve computational tractability by selecting a small subset of belief states, and keeping only those ?-vectors which are maximal at the selected belief states [1, 3, 4]. The precision of these algorithms depend on the number of belief points and their location in the space of beliefs. 3 Online Search in POMDPs Contrary to offline approaches, which compute a complete policy determining an action for every belief state, an online algorithm takes as input the current belief state and returns the single action which is the best for this particular belief state. The advantage of such an approach is that it only needs to consider belief states that are reachable from the current belief state. This naturally provides a small set of beliefs, which could be exploited as in offline methods. But in addition, since online planning is done at every step (and thus generalization between beliefs is not required), it is sufficient to calculate only the maximal value for the current belief state, not the full optimal ?-vector. A lookahead search algorithm can compute this value in two simple steps. First we build a tree of reachable belief states from the current belief state. The current belief is the top node in the tree. Subsequent belief states (as calculated by the ? (b, a, o) function) are represented using OR-nodes (at which we must choose an action) and actions are included in between each layer of belief nodes using AND-nodes (at which we must consider all possible observations). Note that in general the belief MDP could have a graph structure with cycles. Our algorithm simply handle such structure by unrolling the graph into a tree. Hence, if we reach a belief that is already elsewhere in the tree, it will be duplicated.1 Second, we estimate the value of the current belief state by propagating value estimates up from the fringe nodes, to their ancestors, all the way to the root. An approximate value function is generally used at the fringe of the tree to approximate the infinite-horizon value. We are particularly interested in the case where a lower bound and an upper bound on the value of the fringe belief states is available, as this allows us to get a bound on the error at any specific node. The lower and upper bounds can be propagated to parent nodes according to:  U (b) if b is a leaf in T , UT (b) = (1) maxa?A UT (b, a) otherwise; X UT (b, a) = RB (b, a) + ? P (o|b, a)UT (? (b, a, o)); (2)  o?? L(b) if b is a leaf in T , maxa?A LT (b, a) otherwise; X LT (b, a) = RB (b, a) + ? P (o|b, a)LT (? (b, a, o)); LT (b) = (3) (4) o?? where UT (b) and LT (b) represent the upper and lower bounds on V ? (b) associated to belief state b in the tree T , UT (b, a) and LT (b, a) represent corresponding bounds on Q? (b, a), and L(b) and U (b) are the bounds on fringe nodes, typically computed offline. Performing a complete k-step lookahead search multiplies the error bound on the approximate value function used at the fringe by ? k ([13]), and thus ensures better value estimates. However, it has complexity exponential in k, and may explore belief states that have very small probabilities of occurring (and an equally small impact on the value function) as well as exploring suboptimal actions (which have no impact on the value function). We would evidently prefer to have a more efficient online algorithm, which can guarantee equivalent or better error bounds. In particular, we believe that the best way to achieve this is to have a search algorithm which uses estimates of error reduction as a criteria to guide the search over the reachable beliefs. 4 Anytime Error Minimization Search In this section, we review the Anytime Error Minimization Search (AEMS) algorithm we had first introduced in [11] and present a novel mathematical derivation of the heuristics that we had suggested. We also provide new theoretical results describing sufficient conditions under which the heuristics are guaranteed to yield ?-optimal solutions. Our approach uses a best-first search of the belief reachability tree, where error minimization (at the root node) is used as the search criteria to select which fringe nodes to expand next. Thus we need a way to express the error on the current belief (i.e. root node) as a function of the error at the fringe nodes. This is provided in Theorem 1. Let us denote (i) F(T ), the set of fringe nodes of a tree T ; (ii) eT (b) = V ? (b) ? LT (b), the error function for node b in the tree T ; (iii) e(b) = V ? (b) ? L(b), the error at a fringe node b ? F(T ); (iv) hbT0 ,b , the unique action/observation sequence that leads from the root b0 to belief b in tree T ; (v) d(h), the depth of an action/observation sequence h (number of Qd(h) h actions); and (vi) P (h|b0 , ? ? ) = i=1 P (hio |b0 i?1 , hia )? ? (bhi?1 , hia ), the probability of executing the action/observation sequence h if we follow the optimal policy ? ? from the root node b0 (where hia and hio refers to the ith action and observation in the sequence h, and bhi is the belief obtained after taking the i first actions and observations from belief b. ? ? (b, a) is the probability that the optimal policy chooses action a in belief b). By abuse of notation, we will use b to represent both a belief node in the tree and its associated belief2 . 1 We are considering using a technique proposed in the LAO* algorithm [12] to handle cycle, but we have not investigated this fully, especially in terms of how it affects the heuristic value presented below. P 2 e.g. b?F (T ) should be interpreted as a sum over all fringe nodes in the tree, while e(b) to be the error associated to the belief in fringe node b. Theorem 1. In any tree T , eT (b0 ) ? P b?F (T ) b0 ,b ? d(hT ) P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ? )e(b). Proof. Consider an arbitrary parent node b in tree T and let?s denote a ?T = argmaxa?A LT (b, a). We P b have eT (b) = V ? (b) ? LT (b). If a ?Tb = ? ? (b), then eT (b) = ? o?? P (o|b, ? ? (b))e(? (b, ? ? (b), o)). T On the other ?b 6= ? ? (b), then we know that LT (b, ? ? (b)) ? LT (b, a ?Tb ) and therefore P hand, when ?a ? eT (b) ? ? o?? P (o|b, ? (b))e(? (b, ? (b), o)). Consequently, we have the following: ( e(b) if b ? F (T ) P eT (b) ? ? P (o|b, ? ? (b))eT (? (b, ? ? (b), o)) otherwise o?? Then eT (b0 ) ? 4.1 P b?F (T ) ? b ,b d(hT0 ) P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ? )e(b) can be easily shown by induction. Search Heuristics From Theorem 1, we see that the contribution of each fringe node to the error in b0 is simply b0 ,b the term ? d(hT ) P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ? )e(b). Consequently, if we want to minimize eT (b0 ) as quickly as possible, we should expand fringe nodes reached by the optimal policy ? ? that maximize the term b0 ,b ? d(hT ) P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ? )e(b) as they offer the greatest potential to reduce eT (b0 ). This suggests us a sound heuristic to explore the tree in a best-first-search way. Unfortunately we do not know V ? nor ? ? , which are required to compute the terms e(b) and P (hTb0 ,b |b0 , ? ? ); nevertheless, we can approximate them. First, the term e(b) can be estimated by the difference between the lower and upper bound. We define e?(b) = U (b) ? L(b) as an estimate of the error introduced by our bounds at fringe node b. Clearly, e?(b) ? e(b) since U (b) ? V ? (b). To approximate P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ? ), we can view the term ? ? (b, a) as the probability that action a is optimal in belief b. Thus, we consider an approximate policy ? ?T that represents the probability that action a is optimal in belief state b given the bounds LT (b, a) and UT (b, a) that we have on Q? (b, a) in tree T . More precisely, to compute ? ?T (b, a), we consider Q? (b, a) as a random variable and make some assumptions about its underlying probability distribution. Once cumulative distribution functions FTb,a , s.t. FTb,a (x) = P (Q? (b, a) ? x), and their associated density functions fTb,a are determined for each (b, a) in tree T , we can compute the probability R? ? Q ? ?T (b, a) = P (Q? (b, a? ) ? Q? (b, a)?a? 6= a) = ?? fTb,a (x) a? 6=a FTb,a (x)dx. Computing this integral may not be computationally efficient depending on how we define the functions fTb,a . We consider two approximations. One possible approximation is to simply compute the probability that the Q-value of a given action is higher thanR its parent belief state value (instead of all actions? Q-value). In this case, we get ? ? ?T (b, a) = ?? fTb,a (x)FTb (x)dx, where FTb is the cumulative distribution function for V ? (b), given bounds LT (b) and UT (b) in tree T . Hence by considering both Q? (b, a) and V ? (b) as random variables with uniform distributions between their respective lower and upper bounds, we get: ( 2 T (b,a)?LT (b)) ? (U if UT (b, a) > LT (b), U (b,a)?L (b,a) T T ? ?T (b, a) = (5) 0 otherwise. P where ? is a normalization constant such that a?A ? ?T (b, a) = 1. Notice that if the density function is 0 outside the interval between the lower and upper bound, then ? ?T (b, a) = 0 for dominated actions, thus they are implicitly pruned from the search tree by this method. A second practical approximation is:  1 if a = argmaxa? ?A UT (b, a? ), ? ?T (b, a) = 0 otherwise. (6) which simply selects the action that maximizes the upper bound. This restricts exploration of the search tree to those fringe nodes that are reached by sequence of actions that maximize the upper bound of their parent belief state, as done in the AO? algorithm [14]. The nice property of this approximation is that these fringe nodes are the only nodes that can potentially reduce the upper bound in b0 . Using either of these two approximations for ? ?T , we can estimate the error contribution e?T (b0 , b) of b0 ,b a fringe node b on the value of root belief b0 in tree T , as: e?T (b0 , b) = ? d(hT ) P (hTb0 ,b |b0 , ? ?T )? e(b). e e Using this as a heuristic, the next fringe node b(T ) to expand in tree T is defined as b(T ) = b0 ,b argmaxb?F (T ) ? d(hT ) P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ?T )? e(b). We use AEMS13 to denote the heuristic that uses ? ?T 4 as defined in Equation 5, and AEMS2 to denote the heuristic that uses ? ?T as defined in Equation 6. 4.2 Algorithm Algorithm 1 presents the anytime error minimization search. Since the objective is to provide a near-optimal action within a finite allowed online planning time, the algorithm accepts two input parameters: t, the online search time allowed per action, and ?, the desired precision on the value function. Algorithm 1 AEMS: Anytime Error Minimization Search Function S EARCH(t, ?) Static : T : an AND-OR tree representing the current search tree. t0 ? T IME() while T IME() ? t0 ? t and not S OLVED(ROOT(T ), ?) do b? ? e b(T ) E XPAND(b? ) U PDATE A NCESTORS(b? ) end while return argmaxa?A LT (ROOT(T ), a) The E XPAND function expands the tree one level under the node b? by adding the next action and belief nodes to the tree T and computing their lower and upper bounds according to Equations 14. After a node is expanded, the U PDATE A NCESTORS function simply recomputes the bounds of its ancestors according to Equations determining b? (s? ), V ? (b), P (o|b, a) and Q? (b, a), as outlined in Section 2. It also recomputes the probabilities ? ?T (b, a) and the best actions for each ancestor node. To find quickly the node that maximizes the heuristic in the whole tree, each node in the tree contains a reference to the best node to expand in their subtree. These references are updated by the U PDATE A NCESTORS function without adding more complexity, such that when this function terminates, we always know immediatly which node to expand next, as its reference is stored in the root node. The search terminates whenever there is no more time available, or we have found an ?optimal solution (verified by the S OLVED function). After an action is executed in the environment, the tree T is updated such that our new current belief state becomes the root of T ; all nodes under this new root can be reused at the next time step. 4.3 Completeness and Optimality We now provide some sufficient conditions under which our heuristic search is guaranteed to converge to an ?-optimal policy after a finite number of expansions. We show that the heuristics proposed in Section 4.1 satisfy those conditions, and therefore are admissible. Before we present the main theorems, we provide some useful preliminary lemmas. Lemma 1. In any tree T , the approximate error contribution e?T (b0 , bd ) of a belief node bd at depth d is bounded by e?T (b0 , bd ) ? ? d supb e?(b). Proof. P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ??T ) ? 1 and e?(b) ? supb? e?(b? ) for all b. Thus e?T (b0 , bd ) ? ? d supb e?(b). Qd(h) h For the following lemma and theorem, we will denote P (ho |b0 , ha ) = i=1 P (hio |b0 i?1 , hia ) the probability of observing the sequence of observations ho in some action/observation sequence h, b ) ? F(T ) given that the sequence of actions ha in h is performed from current belief b0 , and F(T b0 ,b the set of all fringe nodes in T such that P (hT |b0 , ? ?T ) > 0, for ? ?T defined as in Equation 6 (i.e. 3 4 This heuristic is slightly different from the AEMS1 heuristic we had introduced in [11]. This is the same as the AEMS2 heuristic we had introduced in [11]. the set of fringe nodes reached by a sequence of actions in which each action maximizes UT (b, a) in its respective belief state.) b ), either Lemma 2. For any tree T , ? > 0, and D such that ? D supb e?(b) ? ?, if for all b ? F(T d(hbT0 ,b ) ? D or there exists an ancestor b? of b such that e?T (b? ) ? ?, then e?T (b0 ) ? ?. Proof. Let?s denote a?Tb = argmaxa?A UT (b, P a). Notice that for any tree T , and parent belief b ? T , e?T (b) = UT (b)?LT (b) ? UT (b, a ?Tb )?LT (b, a ?Tb ) = ? o?? P (o|b, a ?Tb )? eT (? (b, a ?Tb , o)). Consequently, the following recurrence is an upper bound on e?T (b): 8 if b ? F (T ) > < e?(b) ? if e?T (b) ? ? e?T (b) ? P > P (o|b, a ?Tb )? eT (? (b, a ?Tb , o)) otherwise : ? o?? b ,b P d(hT0 ) 0 ,b 0 ,b By unfolding the recurrence for b0 , we get e?T (b0 ) ? P (hbT,o |b0 , hbT,a )? e(b) + b?A(T ) ? b0 ,b P b0 ,b b0 ,b d(hT ) ? ? b?B(T ) ? P (hT,o |b0 , hT,a ), where B(T ) is the set of parent nodes b having a descendant in Fb(T ) ? such that e?T (b ) ? ? and A(T ) is the set of fringe nodes b?? in Fb(T ) not having an ancestor in B(T ). Hence if for all b ? Fb(T ), d(hbT0 ,b ) ? D or there exists an ancestor b? of b such that e?T (b? ) ? ?, then this means ? P b0 ,b? 0 ,b that for all b in A(T ), d(hbT0 ,b ) ? D, and therefore, e?T (b0 ) ? ? D supb e?(b) b? ?A(T ) P (hT,o |b0 , hbT,a )+ P P b0 ,b? b0 ,b? b0 ,b? b0 ,b? ? b? ?B(T ) P (hT,o |b0 , hT,a ) ? ? b? ?A(T )?B(T ) P (hT,o |b0 , hT,a ) = ?. Theorem 2. For any tree T and ? > 0, if ? ?T is defined such that inf b,T |?eT (b)>? ? ?T (b, a ?Tb ) > 0 for T a ?b = argmaxa?A UT (b, a), then Algorithm 1 using eb(T ) is complete and ?-optimal. Proof. If ? = 0, then the proof is immediate. Consider now the case where ? ? (0, 1). Clearly, since U is bounded above and L is bounded below, then e? is bounded above. Now using ? ? (0, 1), we can find a positive integer D such that ? D supb e?(b) ? ?. Let?s denote ATb the set of ancestor belief states of b in the tree T , and given a finite set A of belief nodes, let?s define e?min (A) = minb?A e?T (b). Now let?s define Tb = T b0 ,b T {T |T f inite, b ? Fb(T ), e?min (A ) > ?} and B = {b|? e (b) inf ?T ) > 0, d(hbT0 ,b ) ? D}. T ?Tb P (hT |b0 , ? T b T Clearly, by the assumption that inf b,T |?eT (b)>? ? ?T (b, a ?b ) > 0, then B contains all belief states b within depth 0 ,b 0 ,b D such that e?(b) > 0, P (hbT,o |b0 , hbT,a ) > 0 and there exists a finite tree T where b ? Fb(T ) and all ancestors b? of b have e?T (b? ) > ?. Furthermore, B is finite since there are only finitely many belief states within depth b0 ,b D. Hence there exist a Emin = minb?B ? d(hT ) e?(b) inf T ?Tb P (hbT0 ,b |b0 , ? ?T ). Clearly, Emin > 0 and we know that for any tree T , all beliefs b in B ? Fb(T ) have an approximate error contribution e?T (b0 , b) ? Emin . ? Since Emin > 0 and ? ? (0, 1), there exist a positive integer D? such that ? D supb e?(b) < Emin . Hence by Lemma 1, this means that Algorithm 1 cannot expand any node at depth D? or beyond before expanding a tree T where B ? Fb(T ) = ?. Because there are only finitely many nodes within depth D? , then it is clear that Algorithm 1 will reach such tree T after a finite number of expansions. Furthermore, for this tree T , since B ? Fb(T ) = ?, we have that for all beliefs b ? Fb(T ), either d(hbT0 ,b ) ? D or e?min (ATb ) ? ?. Hence by T Lemma 2, this implies that e?T (b0 ) ? ?, and consequently Algorithm 1 will terminate after a finite number of expansions (S OLVED(b0 , ?) will evaluate to true) with an ?-optimal solution (since eT (b0 ) ? e?T (b0 )). From this last theorem, we notice that we can potentially develop many different admissible heuristics for Algorithm 1; the main sufficient condition being that ? ?T (b, a) > 0 for a = argmaxa? ?A UT (b, a? ). It also follows from this theorem that the two heuristics described above, AEMS1 and AEMS2, are admissible. The following corollaries prove this: Corollary 1. Algorithm 1, using eb(T ), with ? ?T as defined in Equation 6 is complete and ?-optimal. Proof. Immediate by Theorem 2 and the fact that ? ?T (b, a ?Tb ) = 1 for all b, T . Corollary 2. Algorithm 1, using eb(T ), with ? ?T as defined in Equation 5 is complete and ?-optimal. Proof. We first notice that (UT (b, a) ? LT (b))2 /(UT (b, a) ? LT (b, a)) ? e?T (b, a), since LT (b) ? LT (b, a) for all a. Furthermore, e?T (b, a) ? supb? e?(b? ). Therefore the normalization constant ? ? (|A| supb e?(b))?1 . For a ?Tb = argmaxa?A UT (b, a), we have UT (b, a ?Tb ) = UT (b), and thereT T fore UT (b, a ?b ) ? LT (b) = e?T (b). Hence this means that ? ?T (b, a ?b ) = ?(? eT (b))2 /? eT (b, a ?Tb ) ? (|A|(supb? e?(b? ))2 )?1 (? eT (b))2 for all T , b. Hence, for any ? > 0, inf b,T |?eT (b)>? ? ?T (b, a ?Tb ) ? 2 ?1 2 (|A|(supb e?(b)) ) ? > 0. Hence, corrolary follows from Theorem 2. 5 Experiments In this section we present a brief experimental evaluation of Algorithm 1, showing that in addition to its useful theoretical properties, the empirical performance matches, and in some cases exceeds, that of other online approaches. The algorithm is evaluated in three large POMDP environments: Tag [1], RockSample [3] and FieldVisionRockSample (FVRS) [11]; all are implemented using a factored state representation. In each environments we compute the Blind policy5 to get a lower bound and the FIB algorithm [15] to get an upper bound. We then compare performance of Algorithm 1 with both heuristics (AEMS1 and AEMS2) to the performance achieved by other online approaches (Satia [7], BI-POMDP [8], RTBSS [10]). For all approaches we impose a real-time constraint of 1 sec/action, and measure the following metrics: average return, average error bound reduction6 (EBR), average lower bound improvement7 (LBI), number of belief nodes explored at each time step, percentage of belief nodes reused in the next time step, and the average online time per action (< 1s means the algorithm found an ?-optimal action)8 . Satia, BI-POMDP, AEMS1 and AEMS2 were all implemented using the same algorithm since they differ only in their choice of search heuristic used to guide the search. RTBSS served as a base line for a complete k-step lookahead search using branch & bound pruning. All results were obtained on a Xeon 2.4 Ghz with 4Gb of RAM; but the processes were limited to use a max of 1Gb of RAM. Table 1 shows the average value (over 1000+ runs) of the different statistics. As we can see from these results, AEMS2 provides the best average return, average error bound reduction and average lower bound improvement in all considered environments. The higher error bound reduction and lower bound improvement obtained by AEMS2 indicates that it can guarantee performance closer to the optimal. We can also observe that AEMS2 has the best average reuse percentage, which indicates that AEMS2 is able to guide the search toward the most probable nodes and allows it to generally maintain a higher number of belief nodes in the tree. Notice that AEMS1 did not perform very well, except in FVRS[5,7]. This could be explained by the fact that our assumption that the values of the actions are uniformly distributed between the lower and upper bounds is not valid in the considered environments. Finally, we also examined how fast the lower and upper bounds converge if we let the algorithm run up to 1000 seconds on the initial belief state. This gives an indication of which heuristic would be the best if we extended online planning time past 1sec. Results for RockSample[7,8] are presented in Figure 2, showing that the bounds converge much more quickly for the AEMS2 heuristic. 6 Conclusion In this paper we examined theoretical properties of online heuristic search algorithms for POMDPs. To this end, we described a general online search framework, and examined two admissible heuristics to guide the search. The first assumes that Q? (b, a) is distributed uniformly at random between the bounds (Heuristic AEMS1), the second favors an optimistic point of view, and assume the Q? (b, a) is equal to the upper bound (Heuristic AEMS2). We provided a general theorem that shows that AEMS1 and AEMS2 are admissible and lead to complete and ?-optimal algorithms. Our experimental work supports the theoretical analysis, showing that AEMS2 is able to outperform online approaches. Yet it is equally interesting to note that AEMS1 did not perform nearly as well. This highlights the fact that not all admissible heuristics are equally useful. Thus it will be interesting in the future to develop further guidelines and theoretical results describing which subclasses of heuristics are most appropriate. 5 The policy obtained by taking the combination of the |A| ?-vectors that each represents the value of a policy performing the same action in every belief state. 6 0 )?LT (b0 ) The error bound reduction is defined as 1 ? UTU (b , when the search process terminates on b0 (b0 )?L(b0 ) 7 The lower bound improvement is defined as LT (b0 ) ? L(b0 ), when the search process terminates on b0 8 For RTBSS, the maximum search depth under the 1sec time constraint is show in parenthesis. 30 Figure 1: Comparison of different online search algorithm in different environments. 25 Time (ms) ?1 20 580 856 814 622 623 0 Belief Reuse Return EBR (%) LBI Nodes (%) ? 0.01 ? 0.1 ? 0.01 ?0.1 Tag (|S| = 870, |A| = 5, |?| = 30) RTBSS(5) -10.30 22.3 3.03 45067 0 Satia & Lave -8.35 22.9 2.47 36908 10.0 AEMS1 -6.73 49.0 3.92 43693 25.1 BI-POMDP -6.22 76.2 7.81 79508 54.6 AEMS2 -6.19 76.3 7.81 80250 54.8 RockSample[7,8] (|S| = 12545, |A| = 13, |?| = 2) Satia & Lave 7.35 3.6 0 509 8.9 AEMS1 10.30 9.5 0.90 579 5.3 RTBSS(2) 10.30 9.7 1.00 439 0 BI-POMDP 18.43 33.3 4.33 2152 29.9 AEMS2 20.75 52.4 5.30 3145 36.4 FVRS[5,7] (|S| = 3201, |A| = 5, |?| = 128) RTBSS(1) 20.57 7.7 2.07 516 0 BI-POMDP 22.75 11.1 2.08 4457 0.4 Satia & Lave 22.79 11.1 2.05 3683 0.4 AEMS1 23.31 12.4 2.24 3856 1.4 AEMS2 23.39 13.3 2.35 4070 1.6 V(b ) Heuristic / Algorithm 15 AEMS2 AEMS1 BI?POMDP Satia 10 900 916 896 953 859 254 923 947 942 944 5 ?2 10 ?1 10 0 1 10 10 2 10 3 10 Time (s) Figure 2: Evolution of the upper / lower bounds on the initial belief state in RockSample[7,8]. Acknowledgments This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Fonds Qu?eb?ecois de la Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies (FQRNT). References [1] J. Pineau. Tractable planning under uncertainty: exploiting structure. PhD thesis, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 2004. [2] P. Poupart. Exploiting structure to efficiently solve large scale partially observable Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, University of Toronto, 2005. [3] T. Smith and R. Simmons. Point-based POMDP algorithms: improved analysis and implementation. In UAI, 2005. [4] M. T. J. Spaan and N. Vlassis. Perseus: randomized point-based value iteration for POMDPs. JAIR, 24:195?220, 2005. [5] N. Roy and G. Gordon. Exponential family PCA for belief compression in POMDPs. In NIPS, 2003. [6] P. Poupart and C. Boutilier. Value-directed compression of POMDPs. In NIPS, 2003. [7] J. K. Satia and R. E. Lave. Markovian decision processes with probabilistic observation of states. Management Science, 20(1):1?13, 1973. [8] R. Washington. BI-POMDP: bounded, incremental partially observable Markov model planning. In 4th Eur. Conf. on Planning, pages 440?451, 1997. [9] D. McAllester and S. Singh. Approximate Planning for Factored POMDPs using Belief State Simplification. In UAI, 1999. [10] S. Paquet, L. Tobin, and B. Chaib-draa. An online POMDP algorithm for complex multiagent environments. In AAMAS, 2005. [11] S. Ross and B. Chaib-draa. AEMS: an anytime online search algorithm for approximate policy refinement in large POMDPs. In IJCAI, 2007. [12] E. A. Hansen and S. Zilberstein. LAO * : A heuristic search algorithm that finds solutions with loops. Artificial Intelligence, 129(1-2):35?62, 2001. [13] M. L. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, NY, USA, 1994. [14] N.J. Nilsson. Principles of Artificial Intelligence. Tioga Publishing, 1980. [15] M. Hauskrecht. Value-function approximations for POMDPs. JAIR, 13:33?94, 2000.
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Managing Power Consumption and Performance of Computing Systems Using Reinforcement Learning Gerald Tesauro, Rajarshi Das, Hoi Chan, Jeffrey O. Kephart, Charles Lefurgy? , David W. Levine and Freeman Rawson? IBM Watson and Austin? Research Laboratories {gtesauro,rajarshi,hychan,kephart,lefurgy,dwl,frawson}@us.ibm.com Abstract Electrical power management in large-scale IT systems such as commercial datacenters is an application area of rapidly growing interest from both an economic and ecological perspective, with billions of dollars and millions of metric tons of CO2 emissions at stake annually. Businesses want to save power without sacrificing performance. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach to simultaneous online management of both performance and power consumption. We apply RL in a realistic laboratory testbed using a Blade cluster and dynamically varying HTTP workload running on a commercial web applications middleware platform. We embed a CPU frequency controller in the Blade servers? firmware, and we train policies for this controller using a multi-criteria reward signal depending on both application performance and CPU power consumption. Our testbed scenario posed a number of challenges to successful use of RL, including multiple disparate reward functions, limited decision sampling rates, and pathologies arising when using multiple sensor readings as state variables. We describe innovative practical solutions to these challenges, and demonstrate clear performance improvements over both hand-designed policies as well as obvious ?cookbook? RL implementations. 1 Introduction Energy consumption is a major and growing concern throughout the IT industry as well as for customers and for government regulators concerned with energy and environmental matters. To cite a prominent example, the US Congress recently mandated a study of the power efficiency of servers, including a feasibility study of an Energy Star standard for servers and data centers [16]. Growing interest in power management is also apparent in the formation of the Green Grid, a consortium of systems and other vendors dedicated to improving data center power efficiency [7]. Recent trade press articles also make it clear that computer purchasers and data center operators are eager to reduce power consumption and the heat densities being experienced with current systems. In response to these concerns, researchers are tackling intelligent power control of processors, memory chips and whole systems, using technologies such as processor throttling, frequency and voltage manipulation, low-power DRAM states, feedback control using measured power values, and packing and virtualization to reduce the number of machines that need to be powered on to run a workload. This paper presents a reinforcement learning (RL) approach to developing effective control policies for real-time management of power consumption in application servers. Such power management policies must make intelligent tradeoffs between power and performance, as running servers in low-power modes inevitably degrades the application performance. Our approach to this entails designing a multi-criteria objective function Upp taking both power and performance into account, and using it to give reward signals in reinforcement learning. We let Upp be a function of mean 1 application response time RT , and total power Pwr consumed by the servers in a decision interval. Specifically, Upp subtracts a linear power cost from a performance-based utility U (RT ): Upp (RT, Pwr) = U (RT ) ? ? ? Pwr (1) where ? is a tunable coefficient expressing the relative value of power and performance objectives. This approach admits other objective functions such as ?performance value per watt? Upp = U (RT )/Pwr, or a simple performance-based utility Upp = U (RT ) coupled with a constraint on total power. The problem of jointly managing performance and power in IT-systems was only recently studied in the literature [5, 6, 17]. Existing approaches use knowledge-intensive and labor-intensive modeling, such as developing queuing-theoretic or control-theoretic performance models. RL methods can potentially avoid such knowledge bottlenecks, by automatically learning high-quality management policies using little or no built-in system specific knowledge. Moreover, as we discuss later, RL may have the merit of properly handling complex dynamic and delayed consequences of decisions. In Section 2 we give details of our laboratory testbed, while Section 3 describes our RL approach. Results are presented in Section 4, and the final section discusses next steps in our ongoing research and ties to related work. 2 Experimental Testbed Figure 1 provides a high-level overview of our experimental testbed. In brief, a Workload Generator produces an HTTP-based workload of dynamically varying intensity that is routed to a blade cluster, i.e., a collection of blade servers contained in a single chassis. (Specifically, we use an IBM BladeCenter containing xSeries HS20 blade servers.) A commercial performance manager and our RL-based power manager strive to optimize a joint power-performance objective cooperatively as load varies, each adjusting its control parameters individually while sharing certain information with the other manager. RL techniques (described subsequently) are used to train a state-action value function which defines the power manager?s control policy. The ?state? is characterized by a set of observable performance, power and load intensity metrics collected in our data collection module as detailed below. The ?action? is a throttling of CPU frequency1 that is achieved by setting a ?powercap? on each blade that provides an upper limit on the power that the blade may consume. Given this limit, a feedback controller embedded in the server?s firmware [11] continuously monitors the power consumption, and continuously regulates the CPU clock speed so as to keep the power consumption close to, but not over, the powercap limit. The CPU throttling affects both application performance as well as power consumption, and the goal of learning is to achieve the optimal level of throttling in any given state that maximizes cumulative discounted values of joint reward Upp . We control workload intensity by varying the number of clients nc sending HTTP requests. We varied nc in a range from 1 to 50 using a statistical time-series model of web traffic derived from observations of a highly accessed Olympics web site [14]. Clients behave according to a closed-loop model [12] with exponentially distributed think times of mean 125 msec. The commercial performance manager is WebSphere Extended Deployment (WXD)[18], a multinode webserver environment providing extensive data collection and performance management functionality. WXD manages the routing policy of the Workload Distributer as well as control parameters on individual blades, such as the maximum workload concurrency. Our data collector receives several streams of data and provides a synchronized report to the power policy evaluator on a time scale ?l (typically set to 5 seconds). Data generated on much faster time scales than ?l are time-averaged over the interval, otherwise the most recent values are reported. Among the aggregated data are several dozen performance metrics collected by a daemon running on the WXD data server, such as mean response time, queue length and number of CPU cycles per transaction; CPU utilization and effective frequency collected by local daemons on each blade; and current power and temperature measurements collected by the firmware on each blade, which are polled using IPMI commands sent from the BladeCenter management module. 1 An alternative technique with different power/performance trade-offs is Dynamic Voltage and Frequency Scaling (DVFS). 2 Manager-to-manager Interactions Performance Manager (WebSphere XD) Power Data Blade Chassis Workload Distributor HTTP Requests Workload Generator Performance Data Blade System Blade System Blade System Control Policy Power Assignment Control Policy Power Manager Power Figure 1: Overview of testbed environment. 2.1 Utility function definition Our specific performance-based utility U (RT ) in Eq. 1 is a piecewise linear function of response time RT which returns a maximum value of 1.0 when RT is less than a specified threshold RT0 , and which drops linearly when RT exceeds RT0 , i.e., U (RT /RT0 ) = ? 1.0 2.0 ? RT /RT0 if RT ? RT0 otherwise (2) Such a utility function reflects the common assumptions in customer service level agreements that there is no incentive to improve the performance once it reaches the target threshold, and that there is always a constant incentive to improve performance if it violates the threshold. In all of our experiments, we set RT0 = 1000 msec, and we also set the power scale factor ? = 0.01 in Eq. 1. At this value of ? the power-performance tradeoff is strongly biased in favor of performance, as is commonly desired in today?s data centers. However, larger values of ? could be appropriate in future scenarios where power is much more costly, in which case the optimal policies would tolerate more frequent performance threshold violations in order to save more aggressively on power consumption. 2.2 Baseline Powercap Policies To assess the effectiveness of our RL-based power management policies, we compare with two different benchmark policies: ?UN? (unmanaged) and ?HC? (hand-crafted). The unmanaged policy always sets the powercap to a maximal value of 120W; we verified that the CPU runs at the highest frequency under all load conditions with this setting. The hand-crafted policy was created as follows. We measured power consumption on a blade server at extremely low (nc = 1) and high (nc = 50) loads, finding that in all cases the power consumption ranged between 75 and 120 watts. Given this range, we established a grid of sample points, with p? running from 75 watts to 120 watts in increments of 5 watts, and the number of clients running from 0 to 50 in increments of 5. For each of the 10 possible settings of p? , we held nc fixed at 50 for 45 minutes to permit WXD to adapt to the workload, and then decremented nc by 5 every 5 minutes. Finally, the models RT (p? , nc ) and P wr(p? , nc ), were derived by linearly interpolating for the RT and P wr between the sampled grid points. We substitute these models into our utility function Upp (RT, P wr) to obtain an equivalent utility function U ? depending on p? and nc , i.e., U ? (p? , nc ) = Upp (RT (p? , nc ), P wr(p? , nc )). We can then choose the optimal powercap for any workload intensity nc by optimizing U ? : p?? (nc ) = arg maxp? U ? (p? , nc ). 3 3 Reinforcement Learning Approach One may naturally question whether RL could be capable of learning effective control policies for systems as complex as a population of human users interacting with a commercial web application. Such systems are surely far from full observability in the MDP sense. Without even considering whether the behavior of users is ?Markovian,? we note that the state of a web application may depend, for example, on the states of the underlying middleware and Java Virtual Machines (JVMs), and these states are not only unobservable, they also have complex historical dependencies on prior load and performance levels over multiple time scales. Despite such complexities, we have found in our earlier work [15, 9] that RL can in fact learn decent policies when using severely limited state descriptions, such as a single state variable representing current load intensity. The focus of our work in this paper is to examine empirically whether RL may obtain better policies by including more observable metrics in the state description. Another important question is whether current decisions have long-range effects, or if it suffices to simply learn policies that optimize immediate reward. The answer appears to vary in an interesting way: under low load conditions, the system response to a decision is fairly immediate, whereas under conditions of high queue length (which may result from poor throttling decisions), the responsiveness to decisions may become sluggish and considerably delayed. Our reinforcement learning approach leverages our recent ?Hybrid RL? approach [15], which originally was applied to autonomic server allocation. Hybrid RL is a form of offline (batch) RL that entails devising an initial control policy, running the initial policy in the live system and logging a set of (state, action, reward) tuples, and then using a standard RL/function approximator combination to learn a value function V (s, a) estimating cumulative expected reward of taking action a in state s. (The term ?Hybrid? refers to the fact that expert domain knowledge can be engineered into the initial policy without needing explicit engineering or interfacing into the RL module.) The learned value function V then implies a policy of selecting the action a? in state s with highest expected value, i.e., a? = arg maxa V (s, a). For technical reasons detailed below, we use the Sarsa(0) update rule rather than Q-Learning (note that unlike textbook Sarsa, decisions are made by an external fixed policy). Following [15], we set the discount parameter ? = 0.5; we found some preliminary evidence that this is superior to setting ? = 0.0 but haven?t been able to systematically study the effect of varying ?. We also perform standard direct gradient training of neural net weights: we train a multilayer perceptron with 12 sigmoidal hidden units, using backprop to compute the weight changes. Such an approach is appealing, as it is simple to implement and has a proven track record of success in many practical applications. There is a theoretical risk that the approach could produce value function divergence. However, we have not seen such divergence in our application. Were it to occur, it would not entail any live performance costs, since we train offline. Additionally, we note that instead of direct gradient training, we can use Baird?s residual gradient method [4], which guarantees convergence to local Bellman error minima. In practice we find that direct gradient training yields good convergence to Bellman error minima in ?5-10K training epochs, requiring only a few CPU minutes on a 3GHz workstation. In implementing an initial policy to be used with Hybrid RL, one would generally want to exploit the best available human-designed policy, combined with sufficient randomized exploration needed by RL, in order to achieve the best possible learned policy. However, in view of the difficulty expected in designing such initial policies, it would be advantageous to be able to learn effective policies starting from simplistic initial policies. We have therefore trained our RL policies using an extremely simple performance-biased random walk policy for setting the powercap, which operates as follows: At every decision point, p? either is increased by 1 watt with probability p+ , or decreased by 1 watt with probability p? = (1 ? p+ ). The upward bias p+ depends on the ratio r = RT/RT0 of current mean response time to response time threshold according to: p+ = r/(1 + r). Note that this rule implies an unbiased random walk when r = 1 and that p+ ? 1 for r ? 1, while p+ ? 0 when r ? 1. This simple rule seems to strike a good balance between keeping the performance near the desired threshold, while providing plenty of exploration needed by RL, as can been seen in Figure 2. Having collected training data during the execution of an initial policy, the next step of Hybrid RL is to design an (input, output) representation and functional form of the value function approximator. 4 Avg Power (watts) Avg RT (msec) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Clients 120 110 100 90 80 70 cap (c) goal (b) 50 40 30 20 10 0 (a) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Time (x 5 sec) 3000 3500 4000 Figure 2: Traces of (a) workload intensity, (b) mean response time, and (c) powercap and consumed power of the random-walk (RW) powercap policy. We have initially used the basic input representation studied in [15], in which the state s is represented using a single metric of workload intensity (number of clients nc ), and the action a is a single scalar variable?the powercap p? . This scheme robustly produces decent learned policies, with little sensitivity to exact learning algorithm parameter settings. In later experiments, we have expanded the state representation to a much larger set of 14 state variables, and find that substantial improvements in learned policies can be obtained, provided that certain data pre-processing techniques are used, as detailed below. 3.1 System-specific innovations In our research in this application domain, we have devised several innovative ?tricks? enabling us to achieve substantially improved RL performance. Such tricks are worth mentioning as they are likely to be of more general use in other problem domains with similar characteristics. First, to represent and learn V , we could employ a single output unit, trained on the total utility (reward) using Q-Learning. However, we can take advantage of the fact that total utility Upp in equation 1 is a linear combination of performance utility U and power cost ?? ? P wr. Since the separate reward components are generally observable, and since these should have completely different functional forms relying on different state variables, we propose training two separate function approximators estimating future discounted reward components Vperf and Vpwr respectively. This type of ?decompositional reward? problem has been studied for tabular RL in [13], where it is shown that learning the value function components using Sarsa provably converges to the correct total value function. (Note that Q-Learning cannot be used to train the value function components, as it incorrectly assumes that the optimal policy optimizes each individual component function.) Second, we devised a new type of neuronal output unit to learn Vperf . This is motivated by the shape of U , which is a piecewise linear function of RT , with constant value for low RT and linearly decreasing for large RT . This functional form is is not naturally approximated by either a linear or a sigmoidal transfer function. However, by noting that the derivative of U is a step function (changing from 0 to -1 at the threshold), and that sigmoids give a good approximation to step functions, this suggests using an output transfer function that behaves as the integral of a sigmoid function. R Specifically, our transfer function has the form Y (x) = 1 ? ?(x) where ?(x) = ?(x)dx + C, where ?(x) = 1/(1 + exp(?x)) is the standard sigmoid function, and the integration constant C is chosen so that ? ? 0 as x ? ??. We find that this type of output unit is easily trained by standard backprop and provides quite a good approximation to the true expected rewards. We have also trained separate neural networks to estimate Vpwr using a similar hidden layer architecture and a standard linear output unit. However, we found only a slight improvement in Bellman error over a simple estimator of predicted power ? = p? (although this is not always a good estimate). 5 Hence for simplicity we used Vpwr = ?? ? p? in computing the overall learned policy maximizing V = Vperf + Vpwr . Thirdly, we devised a data pre-processing technique to address a specific rate limitation in our system that the powercap decision p? as well as the number of clients nc can only be changed every 30 seconds, whereas we collect state data from the system every 5 seconds. This limitation was imposed because faster variations in effective CPU speed or in load disrupt WXD?s functionality, as its internal models estimate parameters on much slower time scales, and in particular, it assumes that CPU speed is a constant. As a result, we cannot do standard RL on the 5 second interval data, since this would presume the policy?s ability to make a new decision every 5 seconds. A simple way to address this would be to discard data points where a decision was not made (5/6 of the data), but this would make the training set much smaller, and we would lose valuable state transition information contained in the discarded samples. As an alternative, we divide the entire training set into six subsets according to line number mod-6, so that within each subset, adjacent data points are separated by 30 second intervals. We then concatenate the subsets to form one large training set, with no loss of data, where all adjacent intervals are 30 seconds long. In effect, a sweep through such a dataset replays the experiment six times, corresponding to the six different 5-second phases within the 30second decision cycle. As we shall see in the following section, such rearranged datasets result in substantially more stable policies. Finally, we realized that in the artificially constructed dataset described above, there is an inaccuracy in training on samples in the five non-decision phases: standard RL would presume that the powercap decision is held constant over the full 30 seconds until the next recorded sample, whereas we know that decision actually changes somewhere in the middle of the interval, depending on the phase. To obtain the best approximation to a constant decision over such intervals, we compute an equally weighted average p?? of the recorded decisions at times {t, t+5, t+10, t+15, t+20, t+25} and train on p?? as the effective decision that was made at time t. This change results in a significant reduction (? 40%) in Bellman error, and the combination of this with the mod-6 data reordering enables us to obtain substanial improvements in policy performance. Results 1200 1000 110 (b) (a) power (watts) response time (msec) 4 800 600 400 UN HC RW 0.2 utility temperature (cent) 95 UN HC RW 2NN 15NN 15NNp HC RW 2NN 15NN 15NNp 0.25 (c) 52 50 48 46 100 90 2NN 15NN 15NNp 56 54 105 (d) 0.15 0.1 0.05 UN HC RW 0 2NN 15NN 15NNp UN Figure 3: Comparison of mean metrics (a) response time, (b) power consumed, (c) temperature and (d) utility for six different power management policies: ?UN? (unmanaged), ?HC? (hand-crafted), ?RW? (random walk), ?2NN? (2-input neural net), ?15NN? (15-input neural net, no pre-processing), ?15NNp? (15-input neural net with pre-processing). While we have conducted experiments in other work involving multiple blade servers, in this section we focus on experiments involving a single blade. Fig. 3 plots various mean performance metrics in identical six-hour test runs using identical workload traces for six different power management policies: ?UN? and ?HC? denote the unmanaged and hand-crafted policies described in Sec. 2.2; ?RW? is the random-walk policy of Sec. 3; ?2NN? denotes a two-input (single state variable) neural net; ?15NN? refers to a 15-input neural net without any data pre-processing as described in Sec. 3.1, and 6 ?15NNp? indicates a 15-input neural net using said pre-processing. In the figure, the performance metrics plotted are: (a) mean response time, (b) mean power consumed, (c) mean temperature, and most importantly, (d) mean utility. Standard error in estimates of these mean values are quite small, as indicated by error bars which lie well within the diamond-shaped data points. Since the runs use identical workload traces, we can also assess significance of the differences in means across policies via paired T-tests; exhaustive pairwise comparisons show that in all cases, the null hypothesis of no difference in mean metrics is rejected at 1% significance level with P-value ? 10?6 . (e) goal 1200 120 110 100 90 80 70 1600 cap (k) goal 1200 800 400 (j) 0 400 Avg Power (watts) 800 (d) 120 110 100 90 80 70 1600 Avg RT (msec) cap (c) goal 1200 120 110 100 90 80 70 1600 cap (i) goal 1200 800 400 (h) 0 800 400 Avg Power (watts) Avg Power (watts) Avg RT (msec) Avg RT (msec) cap 0 Clients Avg Power (watts) 120 110 100 90 80 70 1600 (b) 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Avg RT (msec) Avg RT (msec) Avg Power (watts) We see in Fig. 3 that all RL-based policies, after what is effectively a single round of policy iteration, significantly outperform the original random walk policy which generated the training data. Using only load intensity as a state variable, 2NN achieves utility close to (but not matching) the hand-crafted policy. 15NN is disappointing in that its utility is actually worse than 2NN, for reasons that we discuss below. Comparing 15NNp with 15NN shows that pre-processing yields great improvements; 15NNp is clearly the best of the six policies. Breaking down overall utility into separate power and performance components, we note that all RL-based policies achieve greater power savings than HC at the price of somewhat higher mean response times. An additional side benefit of this is lower mean temperatures, as shown in the lower left plot; this implies both lower cooling costs as well as prolonged machine life. (a) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Time (x5 sec) 3000 3500 4000 120 110 100 90 80 70 1600 cap (g) goal 1200 800 400 (f ) 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Time (x5 sec) Figure 4: Traces of the five non-random policies: (a) workload intensity; (b) UN response time; (c) UN powercap; (d) HC response time; (e) HC powercap; (f) 2NN response time; (g) 2NN powercap; (h) 15NN response time; (i) 15NN powercap; (j) 15NNp response time; (k) 15NNp powercap. Fig. 4 shows the actual traces of response time, powercap and power consumed in all experiments except the random walk, which was plotted earlier. The most salient points to note are that 15NNp exhibits the steadiest response time, keeping closest to the response time goal, and that the powercap decsions of 15NN show quite large short-term fluctuations. We attribute the latter behavior to ?overreacting? to response time fluctuations above or below the target value. Such behavior may well be correct if the policy could reset every 5 seconds, as 15NN presumes. In this case, the policy could react to a response time flucutation by setting an extreme powercap value in an attempt to quickly drive the response time back to the goal value, and then backing off to a less extreme value 5 seconds later. However, such behavior would be quite poor in the actual system, in which the extreme powercap setting is held fixed for 30 seconds. 7 5 Summary and related work This paper presented a successful application of batch RL combined with nonlinear function approximation in a new and challenging domain of autonomic management of power and performance in web application servers. We addressed challenges arising both from operating in real hardware, and from limitations imposed by interoperating with commercial middleware. By training on data from a simple random-walk initial policy, we achieved high-quality management polices that outperformed the best available hand-crafted policy. Such policies save more than 10% on server power while keeping performance close to a desired target. In our ongoing and future work, we are aiming to scale the approach to an entire Blade cluster, and to achieve much greater levels of power savings. With the existing approach it appears that power savings closer to 20% could be obtained simply by using more realistic web workload profiles in which high-intensity spikes are brief, and the ratio of peak-to-mean workload is much higher than in our current traffic model. It also appears that savings of ?30% are plausible when using multicore processors [8]. Finally, we are also aiming to learn policies for powering machines off when feasible; this offers the potential to achieve power savings of 50% or more. In order to scale our approach to larger systems, we can leverage the fact that Blade clusters usually have sets of identical machines. All servers within such a homogeneous set can be managed in an identical fashion by the performance and power managers, thereby making the size of the overall state space and the action space more tractable for RL. An important component of our future work is also to improve our current RL methodology. Beyond Hybrid RL, there has been much recent research in offline RL methods, including LSPI [10], Apprenticeship Learning [2], Differential Dynamic Programming [1], and fitted policy iteration minimizing Bellman residuals [3]. These methods are of great interest to us, as they typically have stronger theoretical guarantees than Hybrid RL, and have delivered impressive performance in applications such as helicopter aerobatics. For powering machines on and off, we are especially interested in offline model-based RL approaches: as the number of training samples that can be acquired is likely to be severely limited, it will be important to reduce sample complexity by learning explicit state-transition models. References [1] P. Abbeel, A. Coates, M. Quigley, and A. Y. Ng. An application of reinforcement learning to aerobatic helicopter flight. In Proc. of NIPS-06, 2006. [2] P. Abbeel and A. Y. Ng. Exploration and apprenticeship learning in reinforcement learning. In Proc. of ICML-05, 2005. [3] A. Antos, C. Szepesvari, and R. Munos. Learning near-optimal policies with bellman-residual minimization based fitted policy iteration and a single sample path. In Proc. of COLT-06, 2006. [4] L. Baird. Residual algorithms: Reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proc. of ICML95, 1995. [5] Y. Chen et al. Managing server energy and operational costs in hosting centers. In Proc. of SIGMETRICS, 2005. [6] M. Femal and V. Freeh. Boosting data center performance through non-uniform power allocation. In Second Intl. Conf. on Autonomic Computing, 2005. [7] Green Grid Consortium. Green grid. http://www.thegreengrid.org, 2006. [8] J. Chen et al. Datacenter power modeling and prediction. UC Berkeley RAD Lab presentation, 2007. [9] J. O. Kephart, H. Chan, R. Das, D. Levine, G. Tesauro, F. Rawson, and C. Lefurgy. Coordinating multiple autonomic managers to achieve specified power-performance tradeoffs. In Proc. of ICAC-07, 2007. [10] M. G. Lagoudakis and R. Parr. Least-squares policy iteration. J. of Machine Learning Research, 4:1107? 1149, 2003. [11] C. Lefurgy, X. Wang, and M. Ware. Server-level power control. In Proc. of ICAC-07, 2007. [12] D. Menasce and V. A. F. Almeida. Capacity Planning for Web Performance: Metrics, Models, and Methods. Prentice Hall, 1998. [13] S. Russell and A. L. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Proc. of ICML-03, pages 656?663, 2003. [14] M. S. Squillante, D. D. Yao, and L. Zhang. Internet traffic: Periodicity, tail behavior and performance implications. In System Performance Evaluation: Methodologies and Applications, 1999. [15] G. Tesauro, N. K. Jong, R. Das, and M. N. Bennani. A hybrid reinforcement learning approach to autonomic resource allocation. In Proc. of ICAC-06, pages 65?73, 2006. [16] United States Environmental Protection Agency. Letter to Enterprise Server Manufacturers and Other Stakeholders. http://www.energystar.gov, 2006. [17] M. Wang et al. Adaptive Performance Control of Computing Systems via Distributed Cooperative Control: Application to Power Management in Computer Clusters. In Proc. of ICAC-06, 2006. [18] WebSphere Extended Deployment. http://www.ibm.com/software/webservers/appserv/extend/, 2007. 8
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Multiple-Instance Active Learning Burr Settles Mark Craven University of Wisconsin Madison, WI 5713 USA {bsettles@cs,craven@biostat}.wisc.edu Soumya Ray Oregon State University Corvallis, OR 97331 USA [email protected] Abstract We present a framework for active learning in the multiple-instance (MI) setting. In an MI learning problem, instances are naturally organized into bags and it is the bags, instead of individual instances, that are labeled for training. MI learners assume that every instance in a bag labeled negative is actually negative, whereas at least one instance in a bag labeled positive is actually positive. We consider the particular case in which an MI learner is allowed to selectively query unlabeled instances from positive bags. This approach is well motivated in domains in which it is inexpensive to acquire bag labels and possible, but expensive, to acquire instance labels. We describe a method for learning from labels at mixed levels of granularity, and introduce two active query selection strategies motivated by the MI setting. Our experiments show that learning from instance labels can significantly improve performance of a basic MI learning algorithm in two multiple-instance domains: content-based image retrieval and text classification. 1 Introduction A limitation of supervised learning is that it requires a set of instance labels which are often difficult or expensive to obtain. The multiple-instance (MI) learning framework [3] can, in some cases, address this handicap by relaxing the granularity at which labels are given. In the MI setting, instances are grouped into bags (i.e., multi-sets) which may contain any number of instances. A bag is labeled negative if and only if it contains all negative instances. A bag is labeled positive, however, if at least one of its instances is positive. Note that positive bags may also contain negative instances. The MI setting was formalized by Dietterich et al. in the context of drug activity prediction [3], and has since been applied to a wide variety of tasks including content-based image retrieval [1, 6, 8], text classification [1, 9], stock prediction [6], and protein family modeling [10]. Figure 1 illustrates how the MI representation can be applied to (a) content-based image retrieval (CBIR) and (b) text classification tasks. For the CBIR task, images are represented as bags and instances correspond to segmented regions of the image. A bag representing a given image is labeled positive if the image contains some object of interest. The multiple-instance paradigm is well suited to this task because only a few regions of an image may represent the object of interest, such as the gold medal in Figure 1(a). An advantage of the MI representation here is that it is significantly easier to label an entire image than it is to label each segment. For text classification, documents are represented as bags and instances correspond to short passages (e.g., paragraphs) in the documents. This formulation is useful in classification tasks for which document labels are freely available or cheaply obtained, but the target concept is represented by only a few passages. For example, consider the task of classifying articles according whether or not they contain information about the sub-cellular location of proteins. The article in Figure 1(b) is labeled by the Mouse Genome Database [4] as a citation for the protein catalase that specifies its sub-cellular location. However, the text that states this is only a short passage on the second page of the article. The MI approach is therefore compelling because document labels can be cheaply obtained (say from the Mouse Genome Database), but the labeling is not readily available at the most appropriate level of granularity (passages). bag: image = { instances: segments } bag: document = { instances: passages } The catalase-containing structures represent peroxisomes as concluded from the co-localization with the peroxisomal membrane marker, PMP70. (a) (b) Figure 1: Motivating examples for multiple- instance active learning. (a) In content- based image retrieval, images are represented as bags and instances correspond to segmented image regions. An active MI learner may query which segments belong to the object of interest, such as the gold medal shown in this image. (b) In text classification, documents are bags and the instances represent passages of text. In MI active learning, the learner may query specific passages to determine if they are representative of the positive class at hand. The main challenge of multiple- instance learning is that, to induce an accurate model of the target concept, the learner must determine which instances in positive bags are actually positive, even though the ratio of negatives to positives in these bags can be arbitrarily high. For many MI problems, such as the tasks illustrated in Figure 1, it is possible to obtain labels both at the bag level and directly at the instance level. Fully labeling all instances, however, is expensive. As mentioned above, the rationale for formulating the learning task as an MI problem is that it allows us to take advantage of coarse labelings that may be available at low cost, or even for free. The approach that we consider here is one that involves selectively obtaining the labels of certain instances in the context of MI learning. In particular, we consider obtaining labels for selected instances in positive bags, since the labels for instances in negative bags are known. In active learning [2], the learner is allowed to ask queries about unlabeled instances. In this way, the oracle (or human annotator) is required to label only instances that are assumed to be most valuable for training. In the standard supervised setting, pool- based active learning typically begins with an initial learner trained with a small set of labeled instances. Then the learner can query instances from a large pool of unlabeled instances, re- train, and repeat. The goal is to reduce the total amount of labeling effort required for the learner to achieve a certain level of accuracy. We argue that whereas multiple- instance learning reduces the burden of labeling data by getting labels at a coarse level of granularity, we may also benefit from selectively labeling some part of the training data at a finer level of granularity. Hence, we explore the approach of multiple- instance active learning as a way to efficiently overcome the ambiguity of the MI framework while keeping labeling costs low. There are several MI active learning scenarios we might consider. The first, which is analogous to standard supervised active learning, is simply to allow the learner to query for the labels of unlabeled bags. A second scenario is one in which all bags in the training set are labeled and the learner is allowed to query for the labels of selected instances from positive bags. For example, the learner might query on particular image segments or passages of text in the CBIR and text classification domains, respectively. If an instance- query result is positive, the learner now has direct evidence for the positive class. If the query result is negative, the learner knows to focus its attention to other instances from that bag, also reducing ambiguity. A third scenario involves querying selected positive bags rather than instances, and obtaining labels for any (or all) instances in such bags. For example, the learner might query a positive image in the CBIR domain, and ask the oracle to label as many segments as desired. A final scenario would assume that some bags are labeled and some are not, and the learner would be able to query on (i) unlabeled bags, (ii) unlabeled instances in positive bags, or (iii) some combination thereof. In the present work, we focus on the second formulation above, where the learner queries selected unlabeled instances from labeled, positive bags. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. First, we describe the algorithms we use to train MI classifiers and select instance queries for active learning. Then, we describe our experiments to evaluate these approaches on two data sets in the CBIR and text classification domains. Finally, we discuss the results of our experiments and offer some concluding remarks. 2 Algorithms MI Logistic Regression. We train probabilistic models for multiple-instance tasks using a generalization of the Diverse Density framework [6]. For MI classification, we seek the conditional probability that the label yi is positive for bag Bi given n constituent instances: P (yi = 1|Bi = {Bi1 , Bi2 , . . . , Bin }). If a classifier can provide an equivalent probability P (yij = 1|Bij ) for instance Bij , we can use a combining function (such as softmax or noisy-or) to combine posterior probabilities of all the instances in a bag and estimate its posterior probability P (yi = 1|Bi ). The combining function here explicitly encodes the MI assumption. If the model finds an instance likely to be positive, the output of the combining function should find its corresponding bag likely to be positive as well. In our work, we train classifiers using multiple-instance logistic regression (MILR) which has been shown to be a state-of-the-art MI learning algorithm, and appears to be a competitive method for text classification and CBIR tasks [9]. MILR uses logistic regression with parameters ? = (w, b) to estimate conditional probabilities for each instance: oij = P (yij = 1|Bij ) = 1 1+ e?(w?Bij +b) . Here Bij represents a vector of feature values representing the jth instance in the ith bag, and w is a vector of weights associated with the features. In order to combine these class probabilities for instances into a class probability for a bag, MILR uses the softmax function: Pn j=1 oi = P (yi = 1|Bi ) = softmax? (oi1 , . . . , oin ) = Pn oij e?oij j=1 e?oij , where ? is a constant that determines the extent to which softmax approximates a hard max function. In the general MI setting we do not know the labels of instances in positive bags. Because the equations above represent smooth functions of the model parameters ?, however, we can learn parameter values using a gradient-based optimization method and an appropriate objective function. In the P present work, we minimize squared error over the bags E(?) = 12 i (yi ? oi )2 , where yi ? {0, 1} is the known label of bag Bi . While we describe our MI active learning methods below in terms of this formulation of MILR, it is important to note that they generalize to any classifier that outputs instance-level probabilities used with differentiable combining and objective functions. Diverse Density [6], for example, couples a Gaussian instance model with a noisy-or combining function. Learning from Labels at Mixed Granularities. Suppose our active MI learner queries instance Bij and the corresponding instance label yij is provided by the oracle. We would like to include a direct training signal for this instance in the optimization procedure above. However, E(?) is defined in terms of bag-level error, not instance-level error. Consider, though, that in MI learning a labeled instance is effectively the same as a labeled bag that contains only that instance. So when the label for instance Bij is known, we transform the training set for each query by adding a new training tuple h{Bij }, yij i, where {Bij } is a new singleton bag containing only a copy of the queried instance, and yij is the corresponding label. A copy of the query instance Bij also remains in the original bag Bi , enabling the learner to compute the remaining instance gradients as described below. Since the objective function will guide the learner toward classifying the singleton query instance Bij in the positive tuple h{Bij }, 1i as positive, it will tend to classify the original bag Bi positive as well. Conversely, if we add the negative tuple h{Bij }, 0i, the learner will tend to classify the instance negative in the original bag, which will affect the other instance gradients via the combining function and guides the learner to focus on other potentially positive instances in that bag. It may seem that this effect on the original bag could be achieved by clamping the instance output oij to yij during training, but this has the undesirable property of eliminating the training signal for the bag and the instance. If yij = 1, the combining function output would be extremely high, making bag error nearly zero, thus minimizing the objective function without any actual parameter updates. If yij = 0, the instance would output nothing to the combining function, thus the learner would get no training signal for this instance (though in this case the learner can still focus on other instances in the bag). It is possible to combine clamped instance outputs with our singleton bag approach to overcome this problem, but our experiments indicate that this has no practical advantage over adding singleton bags alone. Also note that simply adding singleton bags will alter the objective function by adding weight, albeit indirectly, to bags that have been queried more often. To control this effect, we uniformly weight each bag and all its queried singleton bags to sum to 1 when computing the value and gradient for the objective function during training. For example, an unqueried bag has weight 1, a bag with one instance query and its derived singleton bag each have weight 0.5, and so on. Uncertainty Sampling. Now we turn our attention to strategies for selecting query instances for labeling. A common approach to active learning in the standard supervised setting is uncertainty sampling [5]. For probabilistic classifiers, this involves applying the classifier to each unlabeled instance and querying those with most uncertainty about the class label. Recall that the learned model estimates oij = P (yij = 1|Bij ), the probability that instance Bij is positive. We represent the uncertainty U (Bij ) by the Gini measure: U (Bij ) = 2oij (1 ? oij ). Note that the particular measure we use here is not critical; the important properties are that its minima are at zero and one, its maximum is at 0.5, and it is symmetric about 0.5. MI Uncertainty (MIU). We argue that when doing active learning in a multiple-instance setting, the selection criterion should take into account not just uncertainty about a given instance?s class label, but also the extent to which the learner can adequately ?explain? the bag to which the instance belongs. For example, the instance that the learner finds most uncertain may belong to the same bag as the instance it finds most positive. In this case, the learned model will have a high value of P (yi = 1|Bi ) for the bag because the value computed by the combining function will be dominated by the output of the positive-looking instance. We propose an uncertainty-based query strategy that weights the uncertainty of Bij in terms of how much it contributes to the classification of bag Bi . As such, we define the MI Uncertainty (MIU) of an instance to be the derivative of bag output with respect to instance output (i.e., the derivative of the softmax combining function) times instance uncertainty: M IU (Bij ) = ?oi U (Bij ). ?oij Expected Gradient Length (EGL). Another query strategy we consider is to identify the instance that would impart the greatest change to the current model if we knew its label. Since we train MILR with gradient descent, this involves querying the instance which, if h{Bij }, yij i is added to the training set, would create the greatest change in the gradient of the objective function (i.e., the largest gradient vector used to re-estimate values for ?). Let ?E(?) be the gradient of E with respect to ?, which is a vector whose components are the partial derivatives of E with respect to each model ?E ?E ?E parameter: ?E(?) = [ ?? , , . . . , ?? ]. 1 ??2 m + Now let ?Eij (?) be the new gradient obtained by adding the positive tuple h{Bij }, 1i to the training ? set, and likewise let ?Eij (?) be the new gradient if a query results in the negative tuple h{Bij }, 0i being added. Since we do not know which label the oracle will provide in advance, we instead calculate the expected length of the gradient based on the learner?s current belief oij in each outcome. More precisely, we define the Expected Gradient Length (EGL) to be: + ? EGL(Bij ) = oij k?Eij (?)k + (1 ? oij )k?Eij (?)k. Note that this selection strategy does not explicitly encode the MI bias. Instead, it employs class probabilities to determine the expected label for candidate queries, with the goal of maximizing parameter changes to what happens to be an MI learning algorithm. This strategy can be generalized to query for other properties in non-MI active learning as well. For example, Zhu et al. [11] use a related approach to determine the expected label of candidate query instances when combining active learning with graph-based semi-supervised learning. Rather than trying to maximize the expected change in the learning model, however, they select for the expected reduction in estimated error over unlabeled instances. 3 Data and Experiments Since no MI data sets with instance-level labels previously existed, we augmented an existing MI data set by manually adding instance labels. SIVAL1 is a collection for content-based image retrieval that includes 1500 images, each labeled with one of 25 class labels. The images contain complex objects photographed in a variety of positions, orientations, locations, and lighting conditions. The images (bags) have been transformed and segmented into approximately 30 segments (instances) each. Each segment is represented by a 30-dimensional feature vector describing color and texture attributes of the segment and its neighbors. For more details, see Rahmani & Goldman [8]. We modified the collection by manually annotating the instance segments that belong to the labeled object for each image using a graphical interface we developed. We also created a semi-synthetic MI data set for text classification, using the 20 Newsgroups2 corpus as a base. This corpus was chosen because it is an established benchmark for text classification, and because the source texts?newsnet posts from the early 1990s?are relatively short (in the MI setting, instances are usually paragraphs or short passages [1, 9]). For each of the 20 news categories, we generate artificial bags of approximately 50 posts (instances) each by randomly sampling from the target class (i.e., newsgroup category) at a rate of 3% for positive bags, with remaining instances (and all instances for negative bags) drawn uniformly from the other classes. The texts are processed with stemming, stop-word removal, and information-gain ranked feature selection. The TFIDF values of the top 200 features are used to represent the instance texts. We construct a data set of 100 bags (50 positives and 50 negatives) for each class. We compare our MI Uncertainty (MIU) and Expected Gradient Length (EGL) selection strategies from Section 2 against two baselines: Uncertainty (using only the instance-model?s uncertainty), and instances chosen uniformly at Random from positive bags (to evaluate the advantage of ?passively? labeling instances). The MILR model uses ? = 2.5 for the softmax function and is trained by minimizing squared loss via L-BFGS [7]. The instance-labeled MI data sets and MI learning source code used in these experiments are available online3 . We evaluate our methods by constructing learning curves that plot the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) as a function of instances queried for each data set and selection strategy. The initial point in all experiments is the AUROC for a model trained on labeled bags from the training set without any instance queries. Following previous work on the CBIR problem [8], we average results for SIVAL over 20 independent runs for each image class, where the learner begins with 20 randomly drawn positive bags (from which instances may be queried) and 20 random negative bags. The model is then evaluated on the remainder of the unlabeled bags, and labeled query instances are added to the training set in batches of size q = 2. For 20 Newsgroups, we average results using 10-fold cross-validation for each newsgroup category, using a query batch size of q = 5. Due to lack of space, we cannot show learning curves for every task. Figure 2 shows three representative learning curves for each of the two data sets. In Table 1 we summarize all curves by reporting the average improvement made by each query selection strategy over the initial MILR model (before any instance queries) for various points along the learning curve. Table 2 presents a more detailed comparison of the initial model against each query selection method at a fixed point early on in active learning (10 query batches). 1 http://www.cs.wustl.edu/accio/ http://people.csail.mit.edu/jrennie/20Newsgroups/ 3 http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/?bsettles/amil/ 2 1 0.9 AUROC 1 wd40can 0.9 0.8 0.6 1 0 AUROC 0.7 10 20 30 MIU EGL Uncertainty Random 0.6 40 50 rec.autos 0.9 0.5 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 0.6 0 20 140 0.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 talk.politics.misc 0.7 MIU EGL Uncertainty Random 0.6 40 60 80 100 120 Number of Instance Queries 1 0.8 0.7 MIU EGL Uncertainty Random 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 MIU EGL Uncertainty Random 0.6 sci.crypt 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 MIU EGL Uncertainty Random spritecan 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 1 translucentbowl 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Number of Instance Queries MIU EGL Uncertainty Random 0.6 140 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Number of Instance Queries 140 Figure 2: Sample learning curves from SIVAL (top row) and 20 Newsgroups (bottom row) tasks. Table 1: Summary of learning curves. The average AUROC improvement over the initial MI model (before any instance queries) is reported for each selection strategy. Numbers are averaged across all tasks in each data set at various points during active learning. The winning algorithm at each point is indicated with a box. 4 Instance Queries Random Uncert. SIVAL Tasks EGL MIU Random 20 Newsgroups Tasks Uncert. EGL MIU 10 20 50 80 100 +0.023 +0.033 +0.057 +0.065 +0.068 +0.043 +0.065 +0.084 +0.088 +0.092 +0.039 +0.063 +0.085 +0.093 +0.095 +0.050 +0.070 +0.087 +0.090 +0.090 -0.001 -0.002 +0.002 +0.003 +0.008 +0.002 +0.015 +0.046 +0.052 +0.055 +0.002 +0.015 +0.045 +0.056 +0.055 +0.009 +0.029 +0.051 +0.056 +0.058 Discussion of Results We can draw several interesting conclusions from these results. First and most germane to MI active learning is that MI learners benefit from instance-level labels. With the exception of random selection on 20 Newsgroups data, instance-level labels almost always improve the accuracy of the learner, often with statistical significance after only a few queries. Second, we see that active query strategies (e.g., Uncertainty, EGL, and MIU) perform better than passive (random) instance labeling. On SIVAL tasks, random querying steadily improves accuracy, but very slowly. As Table 1 shows, random selection at 100 queries fails to be competitive with the three active query strategies after half as many queries. On 20 Newsgroups tasks, random selection has a slight negative effect (if any) early on, possibly because it lacks a focused search for positive instances (of which there are only one or two per bag). All three active selection methods, on the other hand, show significant gains fairly quickly on both data sets. Finally, MIU appears to be a well-suited query strategy for this formulation of MI active learning. On both data sets, it consistently improves the initial MI learner, usually with statistical significance, and often approaches the asymptotic level of accuracy with fewer labeled instances than the other two active methods. Uncertainty and EGL seem to perform quite comparably, with EGL performing slightly better between the two. MIU?s gains over these other query strategies are not usually statistically significant, however, and in the long run it is generally matched or slightly surpassed by them. MIU shows the greatest advantage early in the active instance-querying process, perhaps because it is the only method we tested that explicitly encodes the MI assumption by taking advantage of the combining function in its estimation of value to the learner. Table 2: Detailed comparison of the initial MI learner against various query strategies after 10 query batches (20 instances for SIVAL, 50 instances for 20 Newsgroups). Average AUROC values are shown for each algorithm on each task. Statistically significant gains over the initial learner (using a two-tailed t-test at 95%) are shown in bold. The winning algorithm for each task is indicated with a box, and a tally of wins for each algorithm is reported below each column. Task Initial Random Uncert. EGL MIU ajaxorange apple banana bluescrunge candlewithholder cardboardbox checkeredscarf cokecan dataminingbook dirtyrunningshoe dirtyworkgloves fabricsoftenerbox feltflowerrug glazedwoodpot goldmedal greenteabox juliespot largespoon rapbook smileyfacedoll spritecan stripednotebook translucentbowl wd40can woodrollingpin 0.547 0.431 0.440 0.410 0.623 0.430 0.662 0.668 0.445 0.620 0.455 0.417 0.743 0.444 0.496 0.563 0.479 0.436 0.478 0.556 0.670 0.477 0.548 0.599 0.416 0.564 0.418 0.463 0.426 0.662 0.437 0.749 0.727 0.480 0.701 0.497 0.534 0.754 0.464 0.544 0.595 0.490 0.403 0.455 0.612 0.711 0.478 0.614 0.658 0.435 0.633 0.469 0.514 0.508 0.646 0.451 0.765 0.693 0.505 0.703 0.491 0.617 0.794 0.528 0.622 0.614 0.571 0.406 0.463 0.675 0.749 0.486 0.678 0.687 0.420 0.638 0.455 0.511 0.470 0.656 0.442 0.772 0.713 0.522 0.697 0.496 0.594 0.799 0.515 0.602 0.619 0.580 0.394 0.454 0.640 0.746 0.519 0.665 0.700 0.426 0.627 0.459 0.507 0.491 0.677 0.454 0.765 0.736 0.519 0.708 0.497 0.634 0.792 0.526 0.605 0.639 0.564 0.408 0.457 0.655 0.750 0.489 0.702 0.707 0.429 alt.atheism comp.graphics comp.os.ms-windows.misc comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware comp.sys.mac.hardware comp.windows.x misc.forsale rec.autos rec.motorcycles rec.sport.baseball rec.sport.hockey sci.crypt sci.electronics sci.med sci.space soc.religion.christian talk.politics.guns talk.politics.mideast talk.politics.misc talk.religion.misc 0.812 0.720 0.772 0.716 0.716 0.835 0.769 0.768 0.844 0.838 0.918 0.770 0.719 0.827 0.822 0.768 0.847 0.791 0.789 0.759 0.836 0.690 0.768 0.690 0.728 0.827 0.748 0.785 0.844 0.846 0.918 0.770 0.751 0.819 0.824 0.780 0.855 0.793 0.797 0.773 0.863 0.789 0.764 0.687 0.861 0.888 0.758 0.872 0.871 0.871 0.966 0.887 0.731 0.837 0.901 0.769 0.860 0.874 0.878 0.785 0.839 0.783 0.742 0.694 0.855 0.894 0.777 0.872 0.879 0.869 0.962 0.893 0.733 0.845 0.905 0.771 0.870 0.880 0.866 0.773 0.877 0.819 0.714 0.707 0.878 0.882 0.771 0.860 0.883 0.899 0.964 0.913 0.725 0.862 0.893 0.789 0.858 0.876 0.856 0.793 TOTAL NUMBER OF WINS 4 3 9 12 19 It is also interesting to note that in an earlier version of our learning algorithm, we did not normalize weights for bags and instance-query singleton bags when learning with labels at mixed granularities. Instead, all such bags were weighted equally and the objective function was slightly altered. In those experiments, MIU?s accuracy was roughly equivalent to the figures reported here, although the improvement for all other query strategies (especially random selection) were lower. 5 Conclusion We have presented multiple-instance active learning, a novel framework for reducing the labeling burden by obtaining labels at a coarse granularity, and then selectively labeling at finer levels. This approach is useful when bag labels are easily acquired, and instance labels can be obtained but are expensive. In the present work, we explored the case where an MI learner may query unlabeled instances from positively labeled bags in order reduce the inherent ambiguity of the MI representation, while keeping label costs low. We also described a simple method for learning from labels at both the bag-level and instance-level, and showed that querying instance-level labels through active learning is beneficial in content-based image retrieval and text categorization problems. In addition, we introduced two active query selection strategies motivated by this work, MI Uncertainty and Expected Gradient Length, and demonstrated that they are well-suited to MI active learning. In future work, we plan to investigate the other MI active learning scenarios mentioned in Section 1. Of particular interest is the setting where, initially, some bags are labeled and others are not, and the learner is allowed to query on (i) unlabeled bags, (ii) unlabeled instances from positively labeled bags, or (iii) some combination thereof. We also plan to investigate other selection methods for different query formats, such as ?label any or all positive instances in this bag,? which may be more natural for some MI learning problems. Acknowledgments This research was supported by NSF grant IIS-0093016 and NIH grants T15-LM07359 and R01LM07050-05. References [1] S. Andrews, I. Tsochantaridis, and T. Hofmann. Support vector machines for multiple-instance learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 561?568. MIT Press, 2003. [2] D. Cohn, L. Atlas, and R. Ladner. Improving generalization with active learning. Machine Learning, 15(2):201?221, 1994. [3] T. Dietterich, R. Lathrop, and T. Lozano-Perez. Solving the multiple-instance problem with axis-parallel rectangles. Artificial Intelligence, 89:31?71, 1997. [4] J.T. Eppig, C.J. Bult, J.A. Kadin, J.E. Richardson, J.A. Blake, and the members of the Mouse Genome Database Group. The Mouse Genome Database (MGD): from genes to mice?a community resource for mouse biology. Nucleic Acids Research, 33:D471?D475, 2005. http://www.informatics.jax.org. [5] D. Lewis and J. Catlett. Heterogeneous uncertainty sampling for supervised learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 148?156. Morgan Kaufmann, 1994. [6] O. Maron and T. Lozano-Perez. A framework for multiple-instance learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), pages 570?576. MIT Press, 1998. [7] J. Nocedal and S.J. Wright. Numerical Optimization. Springer, 1999. [8] R. Rahmani and S.A. Goldman. MISSL: Multiple-instance semi-supervised learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 705?712. ACM Press, 2006. [9] S. Ray and M. Craven. Supervised versus multiple instance learning: An empirical comparison. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 697?704. ACM Press, 2005. [10] Q. Tao, S.D. Scott, and N.V. Vinodchandran. SVM-based generalized multiple-instance learning via approximate box counting. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 779?806. Morgan Kaufmann, 2004. [11] X. Zhu, J. Lafferty, and Z. Ghahramani. Combining active learning and semi-supervised learning using gaussian fields and harmonic functions. In Proceedings of the ICML Workshop on the Continuum from Labeled to Unlabeled Data, pages 58?65, 2003.
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Hierarchical Apprenticeship Learning, with Application to Quadruped Locomotion J. Zico Kolter, Pieter Abbeel, Andrew Y. Ng Department of Computer Science Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305 {kolter, pabbeel, ang}@cs.stanford.edu Abstract We consider apprenticeship learning?learning from expert demonstrations?in the setting of large, complex domains. Past work in apprenticeship learning requires that the expert demonstrate complete trajectories through the domain. However, in many problems even an expert has difficulty controlling the system, which makes this approach infeasible. For example, consider the task of teaching a quadruped robot to navigate over extreme terrain; demonstrating an optimal policy (i.e., an optimal set of foot locations over the entire terrain) is a highly non-trivial task, even for an expert. In this paper we propose a method for hierarchical apprenticeship learning, which allows the algorithm to accept isolated advice at different hierarchical levels of the control task. This type of advice is often feasible for experts to give, even if the expert is unable to demonstrate complete trajectories. This allows us to extend the apprenticeship learning paradigm to much larger, more challenging domains. In particular, in this paper we apply the hierarchical apprenticeship learning algorithm to the task of quadruped locomotion over extreme terrain, and achieve, to the best of our knowledge, results superior to any previously published work. 1 Introduction In this paper we consider apprenticeship learning in the setting of large, complex domains. While most reinforcement learning algorithms operate under the Markov decision process (MDP) formalism (where the reward function is typically assumed to be given a priori), past work [1, 13, 11] has noted that often the reward function itself is difficult to specify by hand, since it must quantify the trade off between many features. Apprenticeship learning is based on the insight that often it is easier for an ?expert? to demonstrate the desired behavior than it is to specify a reward function that induces this behavior. However, when attempting to apply apprenticeship learning to large domains, several challenges arise. First, past algorithms for apprenticeship learning require the expert to demonstrate complete trajectories in the domain, and we are specifically concerned with domains that are sufficiently complex so that even this task is not feasible. Second, these past algorithms require the ability to solve the ?easier? problem of finding a nearly optimal policy given some candidate reward function, and even this is challenging in large domains. Indeed, such domains often necessitate hierarchical control in order to reduce the complexity of the control task [2, 4, 15, 12]. As a motivating application, consider the task of navigating a quadruped robot (shown in Figure 1(a)) over challenging, irregular terrain (shown in Figure 1(b,c)). In a naive approach, the dimensionality of the state space is prohibitively large: the robot has 12 independently actuated joints, and the state must also specify the current three-dimensional position and orientation of the robot, leading to an 18-dimensional state space that is well beyond the capabilities of standard RL algorithms. Fortunately, this control task succumbs very naturally to a hierarchical decomposition: we first plan a general path over the terrain, then plan footsteps along this path, and finally plan joint movements 1 Figure 1: (a) LittleDog robot, designed and built by Boston Dynamics, Inc. (b) Typical terrain. (c) Height map of the depicted terrain. (Black = 0cm altitude, white = 12cm altitude.) to achieve these footsteps. However, it is very challenging to specify a proper reward, specifically for the higher levels of control, as this requires quantifying the trade-off between many features, including progress toward a goal, the height differential between feet, the slope of the terrain underneath its feet, etc. Moreover, consider the apprenticeship learning task of specifying a complete set of foot locations, across an entire terrain, that properly captures all the trade-offs above; this itself is a highly non-trivial task. Motivated by these difficulties, we present a unified method for hierarchical apprenticeship learning. Our approach is based on the insight that, while it may be difficult for an expert to specify entire optimal trajectories in a large domain, it is much easier to ?teach hierarchically?: that is, if we employ a hierarchical control scheme to solve our problem, it is much easier for the expert to give advice independently at each level of this hierarchy. At the lower levels of the control hierarchy, our method only requires that the expert be able to demonstrate good local behavior, rather than behavior that is optimal for the entire task. This type of advice is often feasible for the expert to give even when the expert is entirely unable to give full trajectory demonstrations. Thus the approach allows for apprenticeship learning in extremely complex, previously intractable domains. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, we introduce the hierarchical apprenticeship learning algorithm. This algorithm extends the apprenticeship learning paradigm to complex, highdimensional control tasks by allowing an expert to demonstrate desired behavior at multiple levels of abstraction. Second, we apply the hierarchical apprenticeship approach to the quadruped locomotion problem discussed above. By applying this method, we achieve performance that is, to the best of our knowledge, well beyond any published results for quadruped locomotion.1 The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we discuss preliminaries and notation. In Section 3 we present the general formulation of the hierarchical apprenticeship learning algorithm. In Section 4 we present experimental results, both on a hierarchical multi-room grid world, and on the real-world quadruped locomotion task. Finally, in Section 5 we discuss related work and conclude the paper. 2 Preliminaries and Notation A Markov decision process (MDP) is a tuple (S, A, T, H, D, R), where S is a set of states; A is a set of actions, T = {Psa } is a set of state transition probabilities (here, Psa is the state transition distribution upon taking action a in state s); H is the horizon which corresponds to the number of time-steps considered; D is a distribution over initial states; and R : S ? R is a reward function. As we are often concerned with MDPs for which no reward function is given, we use the notation MDP\R to denote an MDP minus the reward function. A policy ? is a mapping from states to a probhP i H ability distribution over actions. The value of a policy ? is given by V (?) = E t=0 R(st )|? , where the expectation is taken with respect to the random state sequence s0 , s1 , . . . , sH drawn by stating from the state s0 (drawn from distribution D) and picking actions according to ?. 1 There are several other institutions working with the LittleDog robot, and many have developed (unpublished) systems that are also very capable. As of the date of submission, we believe that the controller presented in this paper is on par with the very best controllers developed at other institutions. For instance, although direct comparison is difficult, the fastest running time that any team achieved during public evaluations was 39 seconds. In Section 4 we present results crossing terrain of comparable difficulty and distance in 30-35 seconds. 2 Often the reward function R can be represented more compactly as a function of the state. Let ? : S ? Rn be a mapping from states to a set of features. We consider the case where the reward function R is a linear combination of the features: R(s) = wT ?(s) for parameters w ? Rn . Then we have that the value of a policy ? is linear in the reward function weights PH PH PH V (?) = E[ t=0 R(st )|?] = E[ t=0 wT ?(st )|?] = wT E[ t=0 ?(st )|?] = wT ?? (?) (1) where we used linearity of expectation to bring w outside of the expectation. The last quantity PH defines the vector of feature expectations ?? (?) = E[ t=0 ?(st )|?]. 3 The Hierarchical Apprenticeship Learning Algorithm We now present our hierarchical apprenticeship learning algorithm (hereafter HAL). For simplicity, we present a two level hierarchical formulation of the control task, referred to generically as the low-level and high-level controllers. The extension to higher order hierarchies poses no difficulties. 3.1 Reward Decomposition in HAL At the heart of the HAL algorithm is a simple decomposition of the reward function that links the two levels of control. Suppose that we are given a hierarchical decomposition of a control task in the form of two MDP\Rs ? a low-level and a high-level MDP\R, denoted M` = (S` , A` , T` , H` , D` ) and Mh = (Sh , Ah , Th , Hh , Dh ) respectively ? and a partitioning function ? : S` ? Sh that maps low level states to high-level states (the assumption here is that |Sh |  |S` | so that this hierarchical decomposition actually provides a computational gain).2 For example, in the case of the quadruped locomotion problem the low-level MDP\R describes the state of all four feet, while the high-level MDP\R describes only the position of the robot?s center of mass. As is standard in apprenticeship learning, we suppose that the rewards in the low-level MDP\R can be represented as a linear function of state features, R(s` ) = wT ?(s` ). The HAL algorithm assumes that the reward of a high-level state is equal to the average reward over all its corresponding low-level states. Formally X X X 1 1 1 R(sh ) = wT ?(s` ) R(s` ) = wT ?(s` ) = N (sh ) N (sh ) N (sh ) ?1 ?1 ?1 s` ?? (sh ) s` ?? (sh ) s` ?? (sh ) (2) where ? ?1 (sh ) denotes the inverse image of the partitioning function and N (sh ) = |? ?1 (sh )|. While this may not always be the most ideal decomposition of the reward function in many cases? for example, we may want to let the reward of a high-level state be the maximum of its low level state rewards to capture the fact that an ideal agent would always seek to maximize reward at the lower level, or alternatively the minimum of its low level state rewards to be robust to worst-case outcomes?it captures the idea that in the absence of other prior information, it seems reasonable to assume a uniform distribution over the low-level states corresponding to a high-level state. An important consequence of (2) is that the high level reward is now also linear in the low-level reward weights w. This will enable us in the subsequent sections to formulate a unified hierarchical apprenticeship learning algorithm that is able to incorporate expert advice at both the high level and the low level simultaneously. 3.2 Expert Advice at the High Level Similar to past apprenticeship learning methods, expert advice at the high level consists of full policies demonstrated by the expert. However, because the high-level MDP\R can be significantly simpler than the low-level MDP\R, this task can be substantially easier. If the expert suggests that (i) (i) ?h,E is an optimal policy for some given MDP\R Mh , then this corresponds to the following constraint, which states that the expert?s policy outperforms all other policies: (i) (i) (i) V (i) (?h,E ) ? V (i) (?h ) ??h . Equivalently, using (1), we can formulate this constraint as follows: (i) (i) (i) (i) wT ?? (?h,E ) ? wT ?? (?h ) ??h . While we may not be able to obtain the exact feature expectations of the expert?s policy if the highlevel transitions are stochastic, observing a single expert demonstration corresponds to receiving 2 As with much work in reinforcement learning, it is the assumption of this paper that the hierarchical decomposition of a control task is given by a system designer. While there has also been recent work on the automated discovery of state abstractions[5], we have found that there is often a very natural decomposition of control tasks into multiple levels (as we will discuss for the specific case of quadruped locomotion). 3 a sample from these feature expectations, so we simply use the observed expert features counts (i) (i) ? ?? (?h,E ) in lieu of the true expectations. By standard sample complexity arguments [1], it can be shown that a sufficient number of observed feature counts will converge to the true expectation. To resolve the ambiguity in w, and to allow the expert to provide noisy advice, we use regularization and slack variables (similar to standard SVM formulations), which results in the following formulation: Pn minw,? 21 kwk22 + Ch i=1 ? (i) (i) (i) (i) (i) s.t. wT ? ?? (?h,E ) ? wT ?? (?h ) + 1 ? ? (i) ??h , i (i) where ?h indexes over all high-level policies, i indexes over all MDPs, and Ch is a regularization constant.3 Despite the fact that there are an exponential number of possible policies there are wellknown algorithms that are able to solve this optimization problem; however, we defer this discussion until after presenting our complete formulation. 3.3 Expert Advice at the Low Level Our approach differs from standard apprenticeship learning when we consider advice at the low level. Unlike the apprenticeship learning paradigm where an expert specifies full trajectories in the target domain, we allow for an expert to specify single, greedy actions in the low-level domain. Specifically, if the agent is in state s` and the expert suggests that the best greedy action would move to state s0` , this corresponds directly to a constraint on the reward function, namely that R(s0` ) ? R(s00` ) 00 for all other states s` that can be reached from the current state (we say that s00` is ?reachable? from the current state s` if ?a s.t.Ps` a (s00` ) >  for some 0 <  ? 1).4 This results in the following constraints on the reward function parameters w, wT ?(s0` ) ? wT ?(s00` ) 00 for all s` reachable from s` . As before, to resolve the ambiguity in w and to allow for the expert to provide noisy advice, we use regularization P and slack variables. This gives: m minw,? 12 kwk22 + C` j=1 ? (j) (j) (j) (j) s.t. wT ?(s0` ) ? wT ?(s00` ) + 1 ? ? (j) ?s00` , j (j) (j) where s00` indexes over all states reachable from s0` and j indexes over all low-level demonstrations provided by the expert. 3.4 The Unified HAL Algorithm From (2) we see the high level and low level rewards are a linear combination of the same set of reward weights w. This allows us to combine both types of expert advice presented above to obtain the following unified optimization problem P Pn m minw,?,? 12 kwk22 + C` j=1 ? (j) + Ch i=1 ? (i) (j) (j) (j) (3) s.t. wT ?(s0` ) ? wT ?(s00` ) + 1 ? ? (j) ?s00` , j (i) (i) T (i) (i) T (i) w ? ?? (?h,E ) ? w ?? (?h ) + 1 ? ? ??h , i. This optimization problem is convex, and can be solved efficiently. In particular, even though the optimization problem has an exponentially large number of constraints (one constraint per policy), the optimum can be found efficiently (i.e., in polynomial time) using, for example, the ellipsoid method, since we can efficiently identify a constraint that is violated.5 However, in practice we found the following constraint generation method more efficient: 3 This formulation is not entirely correct by itself, due to the fact that it is impossible to separate a policy from all policies (including itself) by a margin of one, and so the exact solution to this problem will be w = 0. To deal with this, one typically scales the margin or slack by some loss function that quantifies how different two policies are [16, 17], and this is the approach taken by Ratliff, et al. [13] in their maximum margin planning algorithm. Alternatively, Abbeel & Ng [1], solve the optimization problem without any slack, and notice that as soon as the problem becomes infeasible, the expert?s policy lies in the convex hull of the generated policies. However, in our full formulation with low-level advice also taken into account, this becomes less of an issue, and so we present the above formulation for simplicity. In all experiments where we use only the high-level constraints, we employ margin scaling as in [13]. 4 Alternatively, one Pinterpret low-level advice P at the level of actions, and interpret the expert picking action a as the constraint that s0 Psa (s0 )R(s0 ) ? s0 Psa0 (s0 )R(s0 ) ?a0 6= a. However, in the domains we consider, where there is a clear set of ?reachable? states from each state, the formalism above seems more natural. 5 Similar techniques are employed by [17] to solve structured prediction problems. Alternatively, Ratliff, et al. [13] take a different approach, and move the constraints into the objective by eliminating the slack variables, then employ a subgradient method. 4 400 300 HAL 350 HAL High?Level Contraints Only Flat Apprenticeship Learning 250 Low?Level Constraints Only Suboptimality of policy Suboptimality of Policy 300 200 150 250 200 150 100 100 50 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Number of Training Samples 700 800 900 1000 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 # of Training MDPs 14 16 18 20 Figure 2: (a) Picture of the multi-room gridworld environment. (b) Performance versus number of training samples for HAL and flat apprenticeship learning. (c) Performance versus number of training MDPs for HAL versus using only low-level or only high-level constraints. 1. Begin with no expert path constraints. 2. Find the current reward weights by solving the current optimization problem. 3. Solve the reinforcement learning problem at the high level of the hierarchy to find the optimal (high-level) policies for the current reward for each MDP\R, i. If the optimal policy violates the current (high level) constraints, then add this constraint to the current optimization problem and goto Step (2). Otherwise, no constraints are violated and the current reward weights are the solution of the optimization problem. 4 Experimental Results 4.1 Gridworld In this section we present results on a multi-room gridworld domain with unknown cost. While this is not meant to be a challenging control task, it allows us to compare the performance of HAL to traditional ?flat? (non-hierarchical) apprenticeship learning methods, as these algorithms are feasible in such domains. The grid world domain has a very natural hierarchical decomposition: if we average the cost over each room, we can form a ?high-level? approximation of the grid world. Our hierarchical controller first plans in this domain to choose a path over the rooms. Then for each room along this path we plan a low-level path to the desired exit. Figure 2(b) shows the performance versus number of training examples provided to the algorithm (where one training example equals one action demonstrated by the expert).6 As expected, the flat apprenticeship learning algorithm eventually converges to a superior policy, since it employs full value iteration to find the optimal policy, while HAL uses the (non-optimal) hierarchical controller. However, for small amounts of training data, HAL outperforms the flat method, since it is able to leverage the small amount of data provided by the expert at both levels of the hierarchy. Figure 2(c) shows performance versus number of MDPs in the training set for HAL and well as for algorithms which receive the same training data as HAL (that is, both high level and low level expert demonstrations), but which make use of only one or the other. Here we see that HAL performs substantially better. This is not meant to be a direct comparison of the different methods, since HAL obtains more training data per MDP than the single-level approaches. Rather, this experiment illustrates that in situations where one has access to both high-level and low-level advice, it is advantageous to use 6 Experimental details: We consider a 111x111 grid world, evenly divided into 100 rooms of size 10x10 each. There are walls around each room, except for a door of size 2 that connects a room to each of its neighbors (a picture of the domain is shown in figure 2(a)). Each state has 40 binary features, sampled from a distribution particular to that room, and the reward function is chosen randomly to have 10 ?small? [-0.75, -0.25], negative rewards, 20 ?medium? [-1.0 -2.0] negative rewards, and 10 ?high? [-3.0 -5.0] negative rewards. In all cases we generated multiple training MDPs, which differ in which features are active at each state and we provided the algorithm with one expert demonstration for each sampled MDP. After training on each MDP we tested on 25 holdout MDPs generated by the same process. In all cases the results were averaged over 10 runs. For all our experiments, we fixed the ratio of Ch /C` so that the both constraints were equally weighted (i.e., if it typically took t low level actions to accomplish one high-level action, then we used a ratio of Ch /C` = t). Given this fixed scaling, we found that the algorithm was generally insensitive (in terms of the resulting policy?s suboptimality) to scaling of the slack penalties. In the comparison of HAL with flat apprenticeship learning in Figure 2(b), one training example corresponds to one expert action. Concretely, for HAL the number of training examples for a given training MDP corresponds to the number of high level actions in the high level demonstration plus the (equal) number of low level expert actions provided. For flat apprenticeship learning the number of training examples for a given training MDP corresponds to the number of expert actions in the expert?s full trajectory demonstration. 5 Figure 3: (a) High-level (path) expert demonstration. (b) Low-level (footstep) expert demonstration. both. This will be especially important in domains such as the quadruped locomotion task, where we have access to very few training MDPs (i.e., different terrains). 4.2 Quadruped Robot In this section we present the primary experimental result of this paper, a successful application of hierarchical apprenticeship learning to the task of quadruped locomotion. Videos of the results in this section are available at http://cs.stanford.edu/?kolter/nips07videos. 4.2.1 Hierarchical Control for Quadruped Locomotion The LittleDog robot, shown in Figure 1, is designed and built by Boston Dynamics, Inc. The robot consists of 12 independently actuated servo motors, three on each leg, with two at the hip and one at the knee. It is equipped with an internal IMU and foot force sensors. We estimate the robot?s state using a motion capture system that tracks reflective markers on the robot?s body. We perform all computation on a desktop computer, and send commands to the robot via a wireless connection. As mentioned in the introduction, we employ a hierarchical control scheme for navigating the quadruped over the terrain. Due to space constraints, we describe the complete control system briefly, but a much more detailed description can be found in [8]. The high level controller is a body path planner, that plans an approximate trajectory for the robot?s center of mass over the terrain; the low-level controller is a footstep planner that, given a path for the robot?s center, plans a set of footsteps that follow this path. The footstep planner uses a reward function that specifies the relative trade-off between several different features of the robot?s state, including (i) several features capturing the roughness and slope of the terrain at several different spatial scales around the robot?s feet, (ii) distance of the foot location from the robot?s desired center, (iii) the area and inradius of the support triangle formed by the three stationary feet, and other similar features. Kinematic feasibility is required for all candidate foot locations and collision of the legs with obstacles is forbidden. To form the high-level cost, we aggregate features from the footstep planner. In particular, for each foot we consider all the footstep features within a 3 cm radius of the foot?s ?home? position (the desired position of the foot relative to the center of mass in the absence of all other discriminating features), and aggregate these features to form the features for the body path planner. While this is an approximation, we found that it performed very well in practice, possibly due to its ability to account for stochasticity of the domain. After forming the cost function for both levels, we used value iteration to find the optimal policy for the body path planner, and a five-step lookahead receding horizon search to find a good set of footsteps for the footstep planner. 4.2.2 Hierarchical Apprenticeship Learning for Quadruped Locomotion All experiments were carried out on two terrains: a relatively easy terrain for training, and a significantly more challenging terrain for testing. To give advice at the high level, we specified complete body trajectories for the robot?s center of mass, as shown in Figure 3(a). To give advice for the low level we looked for situations in which the robot stepped in a suboptimal location, and then indicated the correct greedy foot placement, as shown in Figure 3(b). The entire training set con6 Figure 4: Snapshots of quadruped while traversing the testing terrain. Figure 5: Body and footstep plans for different constraints on the training (left) and testing (right) terrains: (Red) No Learning, (Green) HAL, (Blue) Path Only, (Yellow) Footstep Only. sisted of a single high-level path demonstration across the training terrain, and 20 low-level footstep demonstrations on this terrain; it took about 10 minutes to collect the data. Even from this small amount of training data, the learned system achieved excellent performance, not only on the training board, but also on the much more difficult testing board. Figure 4 shows snapshots of the quadruped crossing the testing board. Figure 5 shows the resulting footsteps taken for each of the different types of constraints, which shows a very large qualitative difference between the footsteps chosen before and after training. Table 1 shows the crossing times for each of the different types of constraints. As shown, he HAL algorithm outperforms all the intermediate methods. Using only footstep constraints does quite well on the training board, but on the testing board the lack of high-level training leads the robot to take a very roundabout route, and it performs much worse. The quadruped fails at crossing the testing terrain when learning from the path-level demonstration only or when not learning at all. Finally, prior to undertaking our work on hierarchical apprenticeship learning, we invested several weeks attempting to hand-tune controller capable of picking good footsteps across challenging terrain. However, none of our previous efforts could significantly outperform the controller presented here, learned from about 10 minutes worth of data, and many of our previous efforts performed substantially worse. 5 Related Work and Discussion The work presented in this paper relates to many areas of reinforcement learning, including apprenticeship learning and hierarchical reinforcement learning, and to a large body of past work in quadruped locomotion. In the introduction and in the formulation of our algorithm we discussed the connection to the inverse reinforcement learning algorithm of [1] and the maximum margin planning algorithm of [13]. In addition, there has been subsequent work [14] that extends the maximum margin planning framework to allow for the automated addition of new features through a boosting procedure; There has also been much recent work in reinforcement learning on hierarchical reinforcement learning; a recent survey is [2]. However, all the work in this area that we are aware of deals with the more standard reinforcement learning formulation where known rewards are given to the agent as it acts in a (possibly unknown) environment. In contrast, our work follows the apprenticeship learning paradigm where the model, but not the rewards, are known to the agent. Prior work on legged locomotion has mostly focused on generating gaits for stably traversing fairly flat 7 Training Testing Time (sec) Time (sec) HAL 31.03 35.25 Feet Only 33.46 45.70 Path Only ? ? No Learning 40.25 ? Table 1: Execution times for different constraints on training and testing terrains. Dashes indicate that the robot fell over and did not reach the goal. terrain (see, among many others, [10], [7]). Only very few learning algorithms, which attempt to generalize to previously unseen terrains, have been successfully applied before [6, 3, 9]. The terrains considered in this paper go well beyond the difficulty level considered in prior work. 6 Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions. This work was supported by the DARPA Learning Locomotion program under contract number FA8650-05-C-7261. References [1] Pieter Abbeel and Andrew Y. Ng. Apprenticeship learning via inverse reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2004. [2] Andrew G. Barto and Sridhar Mahadevan. Recent advances in hierarchical reinforcement learning. Discrete Event Dynamic Systems: Theory and Applications, 13:41?77, 2003. [3] Joel Chestnutt, James Kuffner, Koichi Nishiwaki, and Satoshi Kagami. Planning biped navigation strategies in complex environments. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Humanoid Robotics, 2003. [4] Thomas G. Dietterich. Hierarchical reinforcement learning with the MAXQ value function decomposition. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 13:227?303, 2000. [5] Nicholas K. Jong and Peter Stone. State abstraction discovery from irrelevant state variables. In Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2005. [6] H. Kim, T. Kang, V. G. Loc, and H. R. Choi. Gait planning of quadruped walking and climbing robot for locomotion in 3D environment. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 2005. [7] Nate Kohl and Peter Stone. Machine learning for fast quadrupedal locomotion. In Proceedings of AAAI, 2004. [8] J. Zico Kolter, Mike P. Rodgers, and Andrew Y. Ng. A complete control architecture for quadruped locomotion over rough terrain. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Robotics and Automation (to appear), 2008. [9] Honglak Lee, Yirong Shen, Chih-Han Yu, Gurjeet Singh, and Andrew Y. Ng. Quadruped robot obstacle negotiation via reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Robotics and Automation, 2006. [10] Jun Morimoto and Christopher G. Atkeson. Minimax differential dynamic programming: An application to robust biped walking. In Neural Information Processing Systems 15, 2002. [11] Gergeley Neu and Csaba Szepesv?ari. Apprenticeship learning using inverse reinforcement learning and gradient methods. In Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2007. [12] Ronald Parr and Stuart Russell. Reinforcement learning with hierarchcies of machines. In Neural Information Processing Systems 10, 1998. [13] Nathan Ratliff, J. Andrew Bagnell, and Martin Zinkevich. Maximum margin planning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2006. [14] Nathan Ratliff, David Bradley, J. Andrew Bagnell, and Joel Chestnutt. Boosting structured prediction for imitation learning. In Neural Information Processing Systems 19, 2007. [15] Richard S. Sutton, Doina Precup, and Satinder Singh. Between mdps and semi-mdps: A framework for temporal abstraction in reinforcement learning. Artificial Intelligence, 112:181?211, 1999. [16] Ben Taskar, Vassil Chatalbashev, Daphne Koller, and Carlos Guestrin. Learning structured prediction models: A large margin approach. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, 2005. [17] I. Tsochantaridis, T. Joachims, T. Hofmann, and Y. Altun. Large margin methods for structured and interdependent output variables. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 6:1453?1484, 2005. 8
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Object Recognition by Scene Alignment Bryan C. Russell Antonio Torralba Ce Liu Rob Fergus William T. Freeman Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambrige, MA 02139 USA {brussell,torralba,celiu,fergus,billf}@csail.mit.edu Abstract Current object recognition systems can only recognize a limited number of object categories; scaling up to many categories is the next challenge. We seek to build a system to recognize and localize many different object categories in complex scenes. We achieve this through a simple approach: by matching the input image, in an appropriate representation, to images in a large training set of labeled images. Due to regularities in object identities across similar scenes, the retrieved matches provide hypotheses for object identities and locations. We build a probabilistic model to transfer the labels from the retrieval set to the input image. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and study algorithm component contributions using held-out test sets from the LabelMe database. 1 Introduction The recognition of objects in a scene often consists of matching representations of image regions to an object model while rejecting background regions. Recent examples of this approach include aligning pictorial cues [4], shape correspondence [1], and modeling the constellation of parts [5]. Other models, exploiting knowledge of the scene context in which the objects reside, have proven successful in boosting object recognition performance [18, 20, 15, 7, 13]. These methods model the relationship between scenes and objects and allow information transfer across the two. Here, we exploit scene context using a different approach: we formulate the object detection problem as one of aligning elements of the entire scene to a large database of labeled images. The background, instead of being treated as a set of outliers, is used to guide the detection process. Our approach relies on the observation that when we have a large enough database of labeled images, we can find with high probability some images in the database that are very close to the query image in appearance, scene contents, and spatial arrangement [6, 19]. Since the images in the database are partially labeled, we can transfer the knowledge of the labeling to the query image. Figure 1 illustrates this idea. With these assumptions, the problem of object detection in scenes becomes a problem of aligning scenes. The main issues are: (1) Can we find a big enough dataset to span the required large number of scene configurations? (2) Given an input image, how do we find a set of images that aligns well with the query image? (3) How do we transfer the knowledge about objects contained in the labels? The LabelMe dataset [14] is well-suited for this task, having a large number of images and labels spanning hundreds of object categories. Recent studies using non-parametric methods for computer vision and graphics [19, 6] show that when a large number of images are available, simple indexing techniques can be used to retrieve images with object arrangements similar to those of a query image. The core part of our system is the transfer of labels from the images that best match the query image. We assume that there are commonalities amongst the labeled objects in the retrieved images and we cluster them to form candidate scenes. These scene clusters give hints as to what objects are depicted 1 screen 2 desk 3 mousepad 2 keyboard 2 (a) Input image (b) Images with similar scene configuration mouse 1 (c) Output image with object labels transferred Figure 1: Overview of our system. Given an input image, we search for images having a similar scene configuration in a large labeled database. The knowledge contained in the object labels for the best matching images is then transfered onto the input image to detect objects. Additional information, such as depth-ordering relationships between the objects, can also be transferred. Figure 2: Retrieval set images. Each of the two rows depicts an input image (on the left) and 30 images from the LabelMe dataset [14] that best match the input image using the gist feature [12] and L1 distance (the images are sorted by their distances in raster order). Notice that the retrieved images generally belong to similar scene categories. Also the images contain mostly the same object categories, with the larger objects often matching in spatial location within the image. Many of the retrieved images share similar geometric perspective. in the query image and their likely location. We describe a relatively simple generative model for determining which scene cluster best matches the query image and use this to detect objects. The remaining sections are organized as follows: In Section 2, we describe our representation for scenes and objects. We formulate a model that integrates the information in the object labels with object detectors in Section 3. In Section 4, we extend this model to allow clustering of the retrieved images based on the object labels. We show experimental results of our system output in Section 5, and conclude in Section 6. 2 Matching Scenes and Objects with the Gist Feature We describe the gist feature [12], which is a low dimensional representation of an image region and has been shown to achieve good performance for the scene recognition task when applied to an entire image. To construct the gist feature, an image region is passed through a Gabor filter bank comprising 4 scales and 8 orientations. The image region is divided into a 4x4 non-overlapping grid and the output energy of each filter is averaged within each grid cell. The resulting representation is a 4 ? 8 ? 16 = 512 dimensional vector. Note that the gist feature preserves spatial structure information and is similar to applying the SIFT descriptor [9] to the image region. We consider the task of retrieving a set of images (which we refer to as the retrieval set) that closely matches the scene contents and geometrical layout of an input image. Figure 2 shows retrieval sets for two typical input images using the gist feature. We show the top 30 closest matching images from the LabelMe database based on the L1-norm distance, which is robust to outliers. Notice that the gist feature retrieves images that match the scene type of the input image. Furthermore, many of the objects depicted in the input image appear in the retrieval set, with the larger objects residing in approximately the same spatial location relative to the image. Also, the retrieval set has many 2 images that share a similar geometric perspective. Of course, not every retrieved image matches well and we account for outliers in Section 4. 3 Utilizing Retrieval Set Images for Object Detection 1 0.95 screen 0.9 SVM (local appearance) We evaluate the ability of the retrieval set to predict the presence of objects in the input image. For this, we found a retrieval set of 200 images and formed a normalized histogram (the histogram entries sum to one) of the object categories that were labeled. We compute performance for object categories with at least 200 training examples and that appear in at least 15 test images. We compute the area under the ROC curve for each object category. As a comparison, we evaluate the performance of an SVM applied to gist features by using the maximal score over a set of bounding boxes extracted from the image. The area under ROC performance of the retrieval set versus the SVM is shown in Figure 3 as a scatter plot, with each point corresponding to a tested object category. As a guide, a diagonal line is displayed; those points that reside above the diagonal indicate better SVM performance (and vice versa). Notice that the retrieval set predicts well the objects present in the input image and outperforms the detectors based on local appearance information (the SVM) for most object classes. 0.85 sidewalk road mouse head keyboard phone mousepad table bookshelf lampspeaker motorbike pole cup cabinet mug blindbottle paper book car chair streetlight plant tree person window door sky 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1 Retrieval set Figure 3: Evaluation of the goodness of the retrieval set by how well it predicts which objects are present in the input image. We build a simple classifier based on object counts in the retrieval set as provided by their associated LabelMe object labels. We compare this to detection based on local appearance alone using an SVM applied to bounding boxes in the input image (the maximal score is used). The area under the ROC curve is computed for many object categories for the two classifiers. Performance is shown as a scatter plot where each point represents an object category. Notice that the retrieval set predicts well object presence and in a majority cases outperforms the SVM output, which is based only on local appearance. In Section 2, we observed that the set of labels corresponding to images that best match an input image predict well the contents of the input image. In this section, we will describe a model that integrates local appearance with object presence and spatial likelihood information given by the object labels belonging to the retrieval set. We wish to model the relationship between object categories o, their spatial location x within an image, and their appearance g. For a set of N images, each having Mi object proposals over L object categories, we assume a joint model that factorizes as follows: p(o, x, g|?, ?, ?) = Mi X N Y 1 Y p(oi,j |hi,j , ?) p(xi,j |oi,j , hi,j , ?) p(gi,j |oi,j , hi,j , ?) (1) i=1 j=1 hi,j =0 We assume that the joint model factorizes as a product of three terms: (i) p(oi,j |hi,j = m, ?m ), the likelihood of which object categories will appear in the image, (ii) p(xi,j |oi,j = l, hi,j = m, ?m,l ), the likely spatial locations of observing object category l in the image, and (iii) p(gi,j |oi,j = l, hi,j = m, ?m,l ), the appearance likelihood of object category l. We let hi,j = 1 indicate whether object category oi,j is actually present in location xi,j (hi,j = 0 indicates absence). Figure 4 depicts the above as a graphical model. We use plate notation, where the variable nodes inside a plate are duplicated based on the counts depicted in the top-left corner of the plate. We instantiate the model as follows. The spatial location of objects are parameterized as bounding y h x w w boxes xi,j = (cxi,j , cyi,j , cw i,j , ci,j ) where (ci,j , ci,j ) is the centroid and (ci,j ,ci,j ) is the width and 3 height (bounding boxes are extracted from object labels by tightly cropping the polygonal annotation). Each component of xi,j is normalized with respect to the image to lie in [0, 1]. We assume ?m are multinomial parameters and ?m,l = (?m,l , ?m,l ) are Gaussian means and covariances over the bounding box parameters. Finally, we assume gi,j is the output of a trained SVM applied to a gist feature g?i,j . We let ?m,l parameterize the logistic function (1 + exp(??m,l [1 gi,j ]T ))?1 . The parameters ?m,l are learned offline by first training SVMs for each object class on the set N of all labeled examples of object class l and a Mi f0,1g set of distractors. We then fit logistic functions h o ? ?m to the positive and negative examples of each i,j ? i,j class. We learn the parameters ?m and ?m,l f0,1g online using the object labels corresponding to L L gi,j ?m,l xi,j ?m,l the retrieval set. These are learned by sim? ply counting the object class occurrences and fitting Gaussians to the bounding boxes corre- Figure 4: Graphical model that integrates information about which objects are likely to be present in the sponding to the object labels. image o, their appearance g, and their likely spatial lo- For the input image, we wish to infer the latent cation x. The parameters for object appearance ? are variables hi,j corresponding to a dense sam- learned offline using positive and negative examples for pling of all possible bounding box locations each object class. The parameters for object presence xi,j and object classes oi,j using the learned likelihood ? and spatial location ? are learned online parameters ?m , ?m,l , and ?m,l . For this, we from the retrieval set. For all possible bounding boxes compute the postierior distribution p(hi,j = in the input image, we wish to infer h, which indicates m|oi,j = l, xi,j , gi,j , ?m , ?m,l , ?m,l ), which is whether an object is present or absent. proportional to the product of the three learned distributions, for m = {0, 1}. The procedure outlined here allows for significant computational savings over naive application of an object detector. Without finding similar images that match the input scene configuration, we would need to apply an object detector densely across the entire image for all object categories. In contrast, our model can constrain which object categories to look for and where. More precisely, we only need to consider object categories with relatively high probability in the scene model and bounding boxes within the range of the likely search locations. These can be decided based on thresholds. Also note that the conditional independences implied by the graphical model allows us to fit the parameters from the retrieval set and train the object detectors separately. Note that for tractability, we assume Dirichlet and Normal-Inverse-Wishart conjugate prior distributions over ?m and ?m,l with hyperparemters ? and ? = (?, ?, ?, ?) (expected mean ?, ? pseudocounts on the scale of the spatial observations, ? degrees of freedom, and sample covariance ?). Furthermore, we assume a Bernoulli prior distribution over hi,j parameterized by ? = 0.5. We hand-tuned the remaining parameters in the model. For hi,j = 0, we assume the noninformative distributions oi,j ? U nif orm(1/L) and each component of xi,j ? U nif orm(1). 4 Clustering Retrieval Set Images for Robustness to Mismatches While many images in the retrieval set match the input image scene configuration and contents, there are also outliers. Typically, most of the labeled objects in the outlier images are not present in the input image or in the set of correctly matched retrieval images. In this section, we describe a process to organize the retrieval set images into consistent clusters based on the co-occurrence of the object labels within the images. The clusters will typically correspond to different scene types and/or viewpoints. The task is to then automatically choose the cluster of retrieval set images that will best assist us in detecting objects in the input image. We augment the model of Section 3 by assigning each image to a latent cluster si . The cluster assignments are distributed according to the mixing weights ?. We depict the model in Figure 5(a). Intuitively, the model finds clusters using the object labels oi,j and their spatial location xi,j within the retrieved set of images. To automatically infer the number of clusters, we use a Dirichlet Process prior on the mixing weights ? ? Stick(?), where Stick(?) is the stick-breaking process of Grif4 N si ? ? Cluster counts Input image 1 Mi 60 ?k,m oi,j Counts f0,1g hi,j ? ? 40 20 f0,1g L L ?m,l gi,j xi,j 0 ?k,m,l ? (b) (a) Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 1 2 3 4 Clusters 5 (c) Cluster 4 Cluster 5 (d) (e) 0.05 0.05 0 w w ch all in ai do r pi flo w ct or u ca tabre bi le n la et bomp ok sc ke rdeen yb e m oask bo ousrd okchae sh ir e peflo lf porsoor st n er 0 0.2 0.8 0.15 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.05 0.05 0.2 0 0 0 pe rs be bon ds ag i dde fu ish rn fo ga itu ot r re glden heass ad 0.1 (f) 0.2 0.15 t plree an c sk t gr flolocy ee w k ne er be lanry r d brries us h 0.1 w sidindca r buew ow ildalk roing pe sad de t ky do str ree or ian w ay 0.2 0.15 (g) Figure 5: (a) Graphical model for clustering retrieval set images using their object labels. We extend the model of Figure 4 to allow each image to be assigned to a latent cluster si , which is drawn from mixing weights ?. We use a Dirichlet process prior to automatically infer the number of clusters. We illustrate the clustering process for the retrieval set corresponding to the input image in (b). (c) Histogram of the number of images assigned to the five clusters with highest likelihood. (d) Montages of retrieval set images assigned to each cluster, along with their object labels (colors show spatial extent), shown in (e). (f) The likelihood of an object category being present in a given cluster (the top nine most likely objects are listed). (g) Spatial likelihoods for the objects listed in (f). Note that the montage cells are sorted in raster order. fiths, Engen, and McCloskey [8, 11, 16] with concentration parameter ?. In the Chinese restaurant analogy, the different clusters correspond to tables and the parameters for object presence ?k and spatial location ?k are the dishes served at a given table. An image (along with its object labels) corresponds to a single customer that is seated at a table. We illustrate the clustering process for a retrieval set belonging to the input image in Figure 5(b). The five clusters with highest likelihood are visualized in the columns of Figure 5(d)-(g). Figure 5(d) shows montages of retrieval images with highest likelihood that were assigned to each cluster. The total number of retrieval images that were assigned to each cluster are shown as a histogram in Figure 5(c). The number of images assigned to each cluster is proportional to the cluster mixing weights, ?. Figure 5(e) depicts the object labels that were provided for the images in Figure 5(d), with the colors showing the spatial extent of the object labels. Notice that the images and labels belonging to each cluster share approximately the same object categories and geometrical configuration. Also, the cluster that best matches the input image tends to have the highest number of retrieval images assigned to it. Figure 5(f) shows the likelihood of objects that appear in the cluster 5 (the nine objects with highest likelihood are shown). This corresponds to ? in the model. Figure 5(g) depicts the spatial distribution of the object centroid within the cluster. The montage of nine cells correspond to the nine objects listed in Figure 5(f), sorted in raster order. The spatial distributions illustrate ?. Notice that typically at least one cluster predicts well the objects contained in the input image, in addition to their location, via the object likelihoods and spatial distributions. To learn ?k and ?k , we use a Rao-Blackwellized Gibbs sampler to draw samples from the posterior distribution over si given the object labels belonging to the set of retrieved images. We ran the Gibbs sampler for 100 iterations. Empirically, we observed relatively fast convergence to a stable solution. Note that improved performance may be achieved with variational inference for Dirichlet Processes [10, 17]. We manually tuned all hyperparameters using a validation set of images, with concentration parameter ? = 100 and spatial location parameters ? = 0.1, ? = 0.5, ? = 3, and ? = 0.01 across all bounding box parameters (with the exception of ? = 0.1 for the horizontal centroid location, which reflects less certainty a priori about the horizontal location of objects). We used a symmetric Dirichlet hyperparameter with ?l = 0.1 across all object categories l. For final object detection, we use the learned parameters ?, ?, and ? to infer hi,j . Since si and hi,j are latent random variables for the input image, we perform hard EM by marginalizing over hi,j to infer the best cluster s?i . We then in turn fix s?i and infer hi,j , as outlined in Section 3. 5 Experimental Results In this section we show qualitative and quantitative results for our model. We use a subset of the LabelMe dataset for our experiments, discarding spurrious and nonlabeled images. The dataset is split into training and test sets. The training set has 15691 images and 105034 annotations. The test set has 560 images and 3571 annotations. The test set comprises images of street scenes and indoor office scenes. To avoid overfitting, we used street scene images that were photographed in a different city from the images in the training set. To overcome the diverse object labels provided by users of LabelMe, we used WordNet [3] to resolve synonyms. For object detection, we extracted 3809 bounding boxes per image. For the final detection results, we used non-maximal suppression. Example object detections from our system are shown in Figure 6(b),(d),(e). Notice that our system can find many different objects embedded in different scene type configurations. When mistakes are made, the proposed object location typically makes sense within the scene. In Figure 6(c), we compare against a baseline object detector using only appearance information and trained with a linear kernel SVM. Thresholds for both detectors were set to yield a 0.5 false positive rate per image for each object category (?1.3e-4 false positives per window). Notice that our system produces more detections and rejects objects that do not belong to the scene. In Figure 6(e), we show typical failures of the system, which usually occurs when the retrieval set is not correct or an input image is outside of the training set. In Figure 7, we show quantitative results for object detection for a number of object categories. We show ROC curves (plotted on log-log axes) for the local appearance detector, the detector from Section 3 (without clustering), and the full system with clustering. We scored detections using the PASCAL VOC 2006 criteria [2], where the outputs are sorted from most confident to least and the ratio of intersection area to union area is computed between an output bounding box and groundtruth bounding box. If the ratio exceeds 0.5, then the output is deemed correct and the ground-truth label is removed. While this scoring criteria is good for some objects, other objects are not well represented by bounding boxes (e.g. buildings and sky). Notice that the detectors that take into account context typically outperforms the detector using local appearance only. Also, clustering does as well and in some cases outperforms no clustering. Finally, the overall system sometimes performs worse for indoor scenes. This is due to poor retrieval set matching, which causes a poor context model to be learned. 6 Conclusion We presented a framework for object detection in scenes based on transferring knowledge about objects from a large labeled image database. We have shown that a relatively simple parametric 6 (a) sky wall wall screen sky tree building tree (b) road road car car car car keyboard road sky keyboard building sky wall sky building sidewalk (c) sky window (d) car car chair table car keyboard road tabletable keyboard keyboard keyboard chair keyboard road screen building table table road keyboard window window person person person car wall road car car car sidewalk car road car sky sky window screen screen (e) building building chair road keyboard Figure 6: (a) Input images. (b) Object detections from our system combining scene alignment with local detection. (c) Object detections using appearance information only with an SVM. Notice that our system detects more objects and rejects out-of-context objects. (d) More outputs from our system. Notice that many different object categories are detected across different scenes. (e) Failure cases for our system. These often occur when the retrieval set is incorrect. model, trained on images loosely matching the spatial configuration of the input image, is capable of accurately inferring which objects are depicted in the input image along with their location. We showed that we can successfully detect a wide range of objects depicted in a variety of scene types. 7 Acknowledgments This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Grant No. 0413232, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency NEGI-1582-04-0004, and the Office of Naval Research MURI Grant N00014-06-1-0734. References [1] A. Berg, T. Berg, and J. Malik. Shape matching and object recognition using low distortion correspondence. In CVPR, volume 1, pages 26?33, June 2005. [2] M. Everingham, A. Zisserman, C.K.I. Williams, and L. Van Gool. The pascal visual object classes challenge 2006 (voc 2006) results. Technical report, September 2006. The PASCAL2006 dataset can be downloaded at http : //www.pascal ? network.org/challenges/VOC/voc2006/. 7 tree (531) 0 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 car (138) 0 ?3 10 ?2 10 10 ?1 10 road (232) ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 screen (268) 0 10 10 ?2 10 ?1 sky (144) 0 ?3 10 ?2 10 10 ?1 10 bookshelf (47) ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 10 motorbike (40) 0 10 ?1 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 10 10 keyboard (154) 0 10 10 10 ?1 ?4 10 0 10 ?3 10 10 ?1 ?4 10 ?1 ?4 10 10 ?1 10 ?1 ?4 10 0 10 10 10 10 sidewalk (196) 0 10 ?1 ?4 10 person (113) 0 10 ?1 10 building (547) 0 10 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?1 10 wall (69) 0 10 ?2 10 10 SVM No clustering Clustering ?1 10 ?1 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 10 10 ?1 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 10 ?1 10 ?1 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 10 10 ?4 10 ?3 10 ?2 10 ?1 10 Figure 7: Comparison of full system against local appearance only detector (SVM). Detection rate for a number of object categories tested at a fixed false positive per window rate of 2e-04 (0.8 false positives per image per object class). The number of test examples appear in parenthesis next to the category name. We plot performance for a number of classes for the baseline SVM object detector (blue), the detector of Section 3 using no clustering (red), and the full system (green). Notice that detectors taking into account context performs better in most cases than using local appearance alone. Also, clustering does as well, and sometimes exceeds no clustering. Notable exceptions are for some indoor object categories. This is due to poor retrieval set matching, which causes a poor context model to be learned. [3] C. Fellbaum. Wordnet: An Electronic Lexical Database. Bradford Books, 1998. [4] P. Felzenszwalb and D. Huttenlocher. Pictorial structures for object recognition. Intl. J. Computer Vision, 61(1), 2005. [5] R. Fergus, P. Perona, and A. Zisserman. Object class recognition by unsupervised scale-invariant learning. In CVPR, 2003. [6] James Hays and Alexei Efros. Scene completion using millions of photographs. In ?SIGGRAPH?, 2007. [7] D. Hoiem, A. Efros, and M. Hebert. Putting objects in perspective. In CVPR, 2006. [8] H. Ishwaran and M. Zarepour. Exact and approximate sum-representations for the dirichlet process. Canadian Journal of Statistics, 30:269?283, 2002. [9] David G. Lowe. Distinctive image features from scale-invariant keypoints. Intl. J. Computer Vision, 60(2):91?110, 2004. [10] J. McAuliffe, D. Blei, and M. Jordan. Nonparametric empirical bayes for the Dirichlet process mixture model. Statistics and Computing, 16:5?14, 2006. [11] R. M. Neal. Density modeling and clustering using Dirichlet diffusion trees. In Bayesian Statistics, 7:619?629, 2003. [12] A. Oliva and A. Torralba. Modeling the shape of the scene: a holistic representation of the spatial envelope. Intl. J. Computer Vision, 42(3):145?175, 2001. [13] A. Rabinovich, A. Vedaldi, C. Galleguillos, E. Wiewiora, and S. Belongie. Objects in context. In IEEE Intl. Conf. on Computer Vision, 2007. [14] B. C. Russell, A. Torralba, K. P. Murphy, and W. T. Freeman. Labelme: a database and web-based tool for image annotation. Technical Report AIM-2005-025, MIT AI Lab Memo, September, 2005. [15] E. Sudderth, A. Torralba, W. T. Freeman, and W. Willsky. Learning hierarchical models of scenes, objects, and parts. In IEEE Intl. Conf. on Computer Vision, 2005. [16] Y. W. Teh, M. I. Jordan, M. J. Beal, and D. M. Blei. Hierarchical Dirichlet processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2006. [17] Y. W. Teh, D. Newman, and Welling M. A collapsed variational bayesian inference algorithm for latent dirichlet allocation. In Advances in Neural Info. Proc. Systems, 2006. [18] A. Torralba. Contextual priming for object detection. Intl. J. Computer Vision, 53(2):153?167, 2003. [19] A. Torralba, R. Fergus, and W.T. Freeman. Tiny images. Technical Report AIM-2005-025, MIT AI Lab Memo, September, 2005. [20] A. Torralba, K. Murphy, W. Freeman, and M. Rubin. Context-based vision system for place and object recognition. In Intl. Conf. Computer Vision, 2003. 8
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Adaptive Bayesian Inference Umut A. Acar? Toyota Tech. Inst. Chicago, IL [email protected] Alexander T. Ihler U.C. Irvine Irvine, CA [email protected] Ramgopal R. Mettu? Univ. of Massachusetts Amherst, MA [email protected] ? ur ? Sumer ? Ozg Uni. of Chicago Chicago, IL [email protected] Abstract Motivated by stochastic systems in which observed evidence and conditional dependencies between states of the network change over time, and certain quantities of interest (marginal distributions, likelihood estimates etc.) must be updated, we study the problem of adaptive inference in tree-structured Bayesian networks. We describe an algorithm for adaptive inference that handles a broad range of changes to the network and is able to maintain marginal distributions, MAP estimates, and data likelihoods in all expected logarithmic time. We give an implementation of our algorithm and provide experiments that show that the algorithm can yield up to two orders of magnitude speedups on answering queries and responding to dynamic changes over the sum-product algorithm. 1 Introduction Graphical models [14, 8] are a powerful tool for probabilistic reasoning over sets of random variables. Problems of inference, including marginalization and MAP estimation, form the basis of statistical approaches to machine learning. In many applications, we need to perform inference under dynamically changing conditions, such as the acquisition of new evidence or an alteration of the conditional relationships which make up the model. Such changes arise naturally in the experimental setting, where the model quantities are empirically estimated and may change as more data are collected, or in which the goal is to assess the effects of a large number of possible interventions. Motivated by such applications, Delcher et al. [6] identify dynamic Bayesian inference as the problem of performing Bayesian inference on a dynamically changing graphical model. Dynamic changes to the graphical model may include changes to the observed evidence, to the structure of the graph itself (such as edge or node insertions/deletions), and changes to the conditional relationships among variables. To see why adapting to dynamic changes is difficult, consider the simple problem of Bayesian inference in a Markov chain with n variables. Suppose that all marginal distributions have been computed in O(n) time using the sum-product algorithm, and that some conditional distribution at a node u is subsequently updated. One way to update the marginals would be to recompute the messages computed by sum-product from u to other nodes in the network. This can take ?(n) time because regardless of where u is in the network, there always is another node v at distance ?(n) from u. A similar argument holds for general tree-structured networks. Thus, simply updating sum-product messages can be costly in applications where marginals must be adaptively updated after changes to the model (see Sec. 5 for further discussion). In this paper, we present a technique for efficient adaptive inference on graphical models. For a treestructured graphical model with n nodes, our approach supports the computation of any marginal, updates to conditional probability distributions (including observed evidence) and edge insertions ? ? U. A. Acar is supported by a gift from Intel. R. R. Mettu is supported by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award (IIS-0643768). 1 and deletions in expected O(log n) time. As an example of where adaptive inference can be effective, consider a computational biology application that requires computing the state of the active site in a protein as the user modifies the protein (e.g., mutagenesis). In this application, we can represent the protein with a graphical model and use marginal computations to determine the state of the active site. We reflect the modifications to the protein by updating the graphical model representation and performing marginal queries to obtain the state of the active site. We show in Sec. 5 that our approach can achieve a speedup of one to two orders of magnitude over the sum-product algorithm in such applications. Our approach achieves logarithmic update and query times by mapping an arbitrary tree-structued graphical model into a balanced representation that we call a cluster tree (Sec. 3?4). We perform an O(n)-time preprocessing step to compute the cluster tree using a technique known as tree contraction [13]. We ensure that for an input network with n nodes, the cluster tree has an expected depth of O(log n) and expected size O(n). We show that the nodes in the cluster tree can be tagged with partial computations (corresponding to marginalizations of subtrees of the input network) in way that allows marginal computations and changes to the network to be performed in O(log n) expected time. We give simulation results (Sec. 5) that show that our algorithm can achieve a speedup of one to two orders of magnitude over the sum-product algorithm. Although we focus primarily on the problem of answering marginal queries, it is straightforward to generalize our algorithms to other, similar inference goals, such as MAP estimation and evaluating the likelihood of evidence. We note that although tree-structured graphs provide a relatively restrictive class of models, junction trees [14] can be used to extend some of our results to more general graphs. In particular, we can still support changes to the parameters of the distribution (evidence and conditional relationships), although changes to the underlying graph structure become more difficult. Additionally, a number of more sophisticated graphical models require efficient inference over trees at their core, including learning mixtures of trees [12] and tree-reparameterized max-product [15]. Both these methods involve repeatedly performing a message passing algorithm over a set of trees with changing parameters or evidence, making efficient updates and recomputations a significant issue. Related Work. It is important to contrast our notion of adapting to dynamic updates to the graphical model (due to changes in the evidence, or alterations of the structure and distribution) with the potentially more general definition of dynamic Bayes? nets (DBNs) [14]. Specifically, a DBN typically refers to a Bayes? net in which the variables have an explicit notion of time, and past observations have some influence on estimates about the present and future. Marginalizing over unobserved variables at time t?1 typically produces increased complexity in the the model of variables at time t. However, in both [6] and this work, the emphasis is on performing inference with current information only, and efficiency is obtained by leveraging the similarity between the previous and newly updated models. Our work builds on previous work by Delcher, Grove, Kasif and Pearl [6]; they give an algorithm to update Bayesian networks dynamically as the observed variables in the network change and compute belief queries of hidden variables in logarithmic time. The key difference between their work and ours is that their algorithm only supports updates to observed evidence, and does not support dynamic changes to the graph structure (i.e., insertion/deletion of edges) or to conditional probabilities. In many applications it is important to consider the effect of changes to conditional relationships between variables; for example, to study protein structure (see Sec. 5 for further discussion). In fact, Delcher et al. cite structural updates to the given network as an open problem. Another difference includes the use of tree contraction: they use tree contractions to answer queries and perform updates. We use tree contractions to construct a cluster tree, which we then use to perform queries and all other updates (except for insertions/deletions). We provide an implementation and show that this approach yields significant speedups. Our approach to clustering factor graphs using tree contractions is based on previous results that show that tree contractions can be updated in expected logarithmic time under certain dynamic changes by using a general-purpose change-propagation algorithm [2]. The approach has also been applied to a number of basic problems on trees [3] but has not been considered in the context of statistical inference. The change-propagation approach used in this work has also been extended to provide a general-purpose technique for updating computations under changes to their data and applied to a number of applications (e.g. [1]). 2 2 Background Graphical models provide a convenient formalism for describing the structure of a function g defined over a set of variables x1 , . . . , xn (most commonly a joint probability distribution over the xi ). Graphical models use this structure to organize computations and create efficient algorithms for many inference tasks over g, such as finding a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) configuration, marginalization, or computing data likelihood. For the purposes of this paper, we assume that each variable xi takes on Pvalues from some finite set, denoted Ai . We write the operation of marginalizing over xi as xi , and let Xj represent an index-ordered subset of variables and f (Xj ) a function defined over those variables, so that for example if Xj = {x2 , x3 , x5 }, then the function f (Xj ) = f (x2 , x3 , x5 ). We use X to indicate the index-ordered set of all {x1 , . . . , xn }. Factor Graphs. A factor graph [10] is one type of graphical model, similar to a Bayes? net [14] or Markov random field [5] used to represent the factorization structure of a function g(xQ 1 , . . . , xn ). In particular, suppose that g decomposes into a product of simpler functions, g(X) = j fj (Xj ), for some collection of real-valued functions fj , called factors, whose arguments are (index-ordered) sets Xj ? X. A factor graph consists of a graph-theoretic abstraction of g?s factorization, with vertices of the graph representing variables xi and factors fj . Because of the close correspondence between these quantities, we abuse notation slightly and use xi to indicate both the variable and its associated vertex, and fj to indicate both the factor and its vertex. Definition 2.1. A factor graph is a bipartite graph G = (X + F, E) where X = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xn } is a set of variables, F = {f1 , f2 , . . . , fm } is a set of factors and E ? X ? F . A factor tree is a factor graph G where G is a tree. The neighbor set N (v) of a vertex v is theQ(index-ordered) set of vertices adjacent to vertex v. The graph G represents the function g(X) = j fj (Xj ) if, for each factor fj , the arguments of fj are its neighbors in G, i.e., N (fj ) = Xj . Other types of graphical models, such as Bayes? nets [14], can be easily converted into a factor graph representation. When the Bayes? net is a polytree (singly connected directed acyclic graph), the resulting factor graph is a factor tree. The Sum-Product Algorithm. The factorization of g(X) and its structure as represented by the graph G can be used to organize various computations Pabout g(X) efficiently. For example, the marginals of g(X), defined for each i by g i (xi ) = X\{xi } g(X) can be computed using the sum?product algorithm. Sum-product is best described in terms of messages sent between each pair of adjacent vertices in the factor graph. For every pair of neighboring vertices (xi , fj ) ? E, the vertex xi sends a message ?xi ?fj as soon as it receives the messages from all of its neighbors except for fj , and similarly for the message from fj to xi . The messages between these vertices take the form of a real-valued function of the variable xi ; for discrete-valued xi this can be represented as a vector of length |Ai |. The message ?xi ?fj sent from a variable vertex xi to a neighboring factor vertex fj , and the message ?fj ?xi from factor fj to variable xi are given by Y X Y ?xi ?fj (xi ) = ?f ?xi (xi ) ?fj ?xi (xi ) = fj (Xj ) ?x?fj (x) f ?N (xi )\fj Xj \xi x?Xj \xi i Once all the messages (2 |E| in total) are sent, we can Q calculate the marginal g (xi ) by simply i multiplying all the incoming messages, i.e., g (xi ) = f ?N (xi ) ?f ?xi (xi ). Sum?product can be thought of as selecting an efficient elimination ordering of variables (leaf to root) and marginalizing in that order. Other Inferences. Although in this paper we focus on marginal computations using sum?product, similar message passing operations can be generalized to other tasks. For example, the operations of sum?product can be used to compute the data likelihood of any observed evidence; such computations are an inherent part of learning and model comparisons (e.g., [12]). More generally, similar algorithms can be defined to compute functions over any semi?ring possessing the distributive property [11]. Most commonly, the max operation produces a dynamic programming algorithm (?max?product?) to compute joint MAP configurations [15]. 3 (Round 1) f1 f3 f?3 (Round 2) 01x1 111 x000 2 x?1 f?4 01x300 00 11 f4 11 00 11 x4 f2 f?2 (Round 3) f?1 f?5 f5 01 x1 f?1 f?2 11 00 1 x2 0 f3 1x3 0 f?4 f?5 x?2 f3 x?4 x4 x?1 x?2 f?3 01x 3 x?4 (Round 4) x3 x?4 Figure 1: Clustering a factor graph with rake, compress, finalize operations. 3 Constructing the Cluster Tree In this section, we describe an algorithm for constructing a balanced representation of the input graphical model, that we call a cluster tree. Given the input graphical model, we first apply a clustering algorithm that hierarchically clusters the graphical model, and then apply a labeling algorithm that labels the clusters with cluster functions that can be used to compute marginal queries. Clustering Algorithm. Given a factor graph as input, we first tag each node v with a unary cluster that consists of v and each edge (u, v) with a binary cluster that consists of the edge (u, v). We then cluster the tree hierarchically by applying the rake, compress, and finalize operations. When applied to a leaf node v with neighbor u, the rake operation deletes the v and the edge (u, v), and forms unary cluster by combining the clusters which tag either v or (u, v); u is tagged with the resulting cluster. When applied to a degree-two node v with neighbors u and w, a compress operation deletes v and the edges (u, v) and (v, w), inserts the edge (u, w), and forms a binary cluster by combining the clusters which tag the deleted node and edges; (u, w) is then tagged with the resulting cluster. A finalize operation is applied when the tree consists of a single node (when no edges remain); it constructs a final cluster that consists of all the clusters with which the final node is tagged. We cluster a tree T by applying rake and compress operations in rounds. Each round consists of the following two steps until no more edges remain: (1) Apply the rake operation to each leaf; (2) Apply the compress operation to an independent set of degree-two nodes. We choose a random independent set: we flip a coin for each node in each round and apply compress to a degree-two node only if it flips heads and its two neighbors flips tails. This ensures that no two adjacent nodes apply compress simultaneously. When all edges are deleted, we complete the clustering by applying the finalize operation. x?3 f?3 x3 x?1 f3 x?2 x3f3 f?1 x1 x1f3 f?2 x2 x2f3 f5 f1 x1f1 f2 x?4 f?5 x4 f?4 = x3x4 x3f4 f4 x4f4 x4f5 x2f2 Figure 2: A cluster tree. Fig. 1 shows a four-round clustering of a factor graph and Fig. 2 shows the corresponding cluster tree. In round 1, nodes f1 , f2 , f5 are raked and f4 is compressed. In round 2, x1 , x2 , x4 are raked. In round 3, f3 is raked. A finalize operation is applied in round 4 to produce the final cluster. The leaves of the cluster tree correspond to the nodes and the edges of the factor graph. Each internal node v? corresponds a unary or a binary cluster formed by deleting v. The children of an internal node are the edges and the nodes deleted during the operation that forms the cluster. For example, the cluster f?1 is formed by the rake operation applied to f1 in round 1. The children of f?1 are node f1 and edge (f1 , x1 ), which are deleted during that operation. 4 Labeling Algorithm. After building the cluster tree, we compute cluster functions along with a notion of orientation for neighboring clusters in a second pass, which we call labeling.1 The cluster function at a node v? in the tree is computed recursively using the cluster functions at v??s child clusters, which we denote Sv? = {? v1 , . . . , v?k }. Intuitively, each cluster function corresponds to a partial marginalization of the factors contained in cluster v?. Since each cluster function is defined over a subset of the variables in the original graph, we require some additional notation to represent these sets. Specifically, for a cluster v?, let A(? v ) be the arguments of its cluster function, and let V(? v ) be the set of all arguments of its children, S V(? v ) = i A(? vi ). In a slight abuse of notation, we let A(v) be the arguments of the node v in the original graph, so that if v is a variable node A(v) = v and if v is a factor node A(v) = N (v). The cluster functions cv? (?) and their arguments are then defined recursively, as follows. For the base case, the leaf nodes of the cluster tree correspond to nodes v in the original graph, and we define cv using the original variables and factors. If v is a factor node fj , we take cv (A(v)) = fj (Xj ), and if v is a variable node xi , A(v) = xi and cv = 1. For nodes of the cluster tree corresponding to edges (u, v) of the original graph, we simply take A(u, v) = ? and cu,v = 1. The cluster function at an internal node of the cluster tree is then given by combining the cluster functions of its children and marginalizing over as many variables as possible. Let v? be the internal node corresponding to the removal of v in the original graph. If v? is a binary cluster (u, w), that is, at v?s removal it had two neighbors u and w, then cv? is given by X Y cv? (A(? v )) = cv?i (A(? vi )) ?i ?Sv? V(? v )\A(? v) v where the arguments A(? v ) = V(? v ) ? (A(u) ? A(w)). For unary cluster v?, where v had a single neighbor u at its removal, cv? (?) is calculated in the same way with A(w) = ?. We also compute an orientation for each cluster?s neighbors based on their proximity to the cluster tree?s root. This is also calculated recursively using the orientations of each node?s ancestors. For a unary cluster v? with parent u ? in the cluster tree, we define in(? v) = u ?. For a binary cluster v? with neighbors u, w at v?s removal, define in(? v) = w ? and out(? v) = u ? if w ? = in(? u); otherwise in(? v) = u ? and out(? v ) = w. ? We now describe the efficiency of our clustering and labeling algorithms and show that the resulting cluster tree is linear in the size of the input factor graph. Theorem 1 (Hierarchical Clustering). A factor tree of n nodes with maximum degree of k can be clustered and labeled in expected O(dk+2 n) time where d is the domain size of each variable in the factor tree. The resulting cluster tree has exactly 2n ? 1 leaves and n internal clusters (nodes) and expected O(log n) depth where the expectation is taken over internal randomization (over the coin flips). Furthermore, the cluster tree has the following properties: (1) each cluster has at most k + 1 children, and (2) if v? = (u, w) is a binary cluster, then u ? and w ? are ancestors of v?, and one of them is the parent of v?. Proof. Consider first the construction of the cluster tree. The time and the depth bound follow from previous work [2]. The bound on the number of nodes holds because the leaves of the cluster tree correspond to the n ? 1 edges and n nodes of the factor graph. To see that each cluster has at most k + 1 children, note that the a rake or compress operation deletes one node and the at most k edges incident on that node. Every edge appearing in any level of the tree contraction algorithm is represented as a binary cluster v? = (u, w) in the cluster tree. Whenever an edge is removed, one of the nodes incident to that edge, say u is also removed, making u ? the parent of v?. The fact that w ? is also an ancestor of v? follows from an induction argument on the levels. Consider the labeling step. By inspection of the labeling algorithm, the computation of the arguments A(?) and V(?) requires O(k) time. To bound the time for computing a cluster function, observe that A(? v ) is always a singleton set if v? is a unary cluster, and A(? v ) has at most two variables if v? is a binary cluster. Therefore, |V(? v )| ? k + 2. The number of operations required to compute 1 Although presented here as a separate labeling operation, the cluster functions can alternatively be computed at the time of the rake or compress operation, as they depend only on the children of v?, and the orientations can be computed during the query operation, since they depend only on the ancestors of v?. 5 |V(? v )| the cluster function at v? is bounded by O(|S ), where Sv? are the children of v?. Since each P v? | d cluster can appear only once as a child, |Sv? | is O(n) and thus the labeling step takes O(dk+2 n) time. Although the running time may appear large, note that the representation of the factor graph takes O(dk n) space if functions associated with factors are given explicitly. 4 Queries and Dynamic Changes We give algorithms for computing marginal queries on the cluster trees and restructuring the cluster tree with respect to changes in the underlying graphical model. For all of these operations, our algorithms require expected logarithmic time in the size of the graphical model. Queries. We answer marginal queries at a vertex v of the graphical node by using the cluster tree. At a high level, the idea is to find the leaf of the cluster tree corresponding to v and compute the messages along the path from the root of the cluster tree to v. Using the orientations computed during the tagging pass, for each cluster v? we define the following messages:   ? P Q ? m c (A(? u )) , if u ? = in(? v) u ? i in(? u )?? u i V(? u)\A(? v) u ?i ?Su v} ? \{?   mu???v = Q P ? ui )) , if u ? = out(? v ), ?i (A(? u)?? u u ?i ?Su v } cu V(? u)\A(? v ) mout(? ? \{? where Su? is the set of the children of u ?. Note that for unary clusters, out(?) is undefined; we define the message in this case to be 1. Theorem 2 (Query). Given a factor tree with n nodes, maximum degree k, domain size d, and its cluster tree, the marginal at any xi can be computed with the following formula Y X cv?i (A(? vi )), g i (xi ) = mout(xi )?xi min(xi )?xi v ?i ?Sx ?i V(? xi )\{xi } where Sx?i is the set of children of x ?i , in O(kd k+2 log n) time. Messages are computed only at the ancestors of the query node xi and downward along the path to xi ; there are at most O(log n) nodes in this path by Theorem 1. Computing each message requires at most O(kdk+2 ) time, and any marginal query takes O(kdk+2 log n) time. Dynamic Updates. Given a factor graph and its cluster tree, we can change the function of a factor and update the cluster tree by starting at the leaf of the cluster tree that corresponds to the factor and relabeling all the clusters on the path to the root. Updating these labels suffices, because the label of a cluster is a function of its children only. Since relabeling a cluster takes O(kdk+2 ) time and the cluster tree has expected O(log n) depth, any update requires O(kdk+2 log n) time. To allow changes to the factor graph itself by insertion/deletion of edges, we maintain a forest of factor trees and the corresponding cluster trees (obtained by clustering the trees one by one). We also maintain the sequence of operations used to construct each cluster tree, i.e., a data structure which represents the state of the clustering at each round. Note that this structure is also size O(n), since at each round a constant fraction of nodes are removed (raked or compressed) in expectation. Suppose now that the user inserts an edge that connects two trees, or deletes an edge connecting two subtrees. It turns out that both operations have only a limited effect on the sequence of clustering operations performed during construction, affecting only a constant number of nodes at each round of the process. Using a general-purpose change propagation technique (detailed in previous work [2, 1]) the necessary alterations can be made to the cluster tree in expected O(log n) time. Change propagation gives us a new cluster tree that corresponds to the cluster tree that we would have obtained by re-clustering from scratch, conditioned on the same internal randomization process. In addition to changing the structure of the cluster tree via change propagation, we must also change the labeling information (cluster functions and orientation) of the affected nodes, which can be done using the same process described in Sec. 3. It is a property of the tree contraction process that all such affected clusters form a subtree of the cluster tree that includes the root. Since change propagation affects an expected O(log n) clusters, and since each cluster can be labeled in O(kdk+2 ) time, the new labels can be computed in O(kdk+2 log n) time. For dynamic updates, we thus have the following theorem. 6 Theorem 3 (Dynamic Updates). For a factor forest F of n vertices with maximum degree k, and domain size d, the forest of cluster trees can be updated in expected O(kdk+2 log n) time under edge insertions/deletions, and changes to factors. 5 Implementation and Experimental Results We have implemented our algorithm in Matlab2 and compared its performance against the standard two-pass sum-product algorithm (used to recompute marginals after dynamic changes). Fig. 3 shows the results of a simulation experiment in which we considered randomly generated factor trees between 100 and 1000 nodes, with each variable having 51 , 52 , or 53 states, so that each factor has size between 52 and 56 . These factor tree correspond roughly to the junction trees of models with between 200 and 6000 nodes, where each node has up to 5 states. Our results show that the time required to build the cluster tree is comparable to one run of sum-product. Furthermore, the query and update operations in the cluster tree incur relatively small constant factors in their asymptotic running time, and are between one to two orders of magnitude faster than recomputing from scratch. A particularly compelling application area, and one of the original motivations for developing our algorithm, is in the analysis of protein structure. Graphical models constructed from protein structures have recently been used to successfully predict structural properties [17] as well as free energy [9]. These models are typically constructed by taking each node as an amino acid whose states represent their most common conformations, known as rotamers [7], and basing conditional probabilities on proximity, and a physical energy function (e.g., [16]) and/or empirical data [4]. Our algorithm is a natural choice for problems where various aspects of protein structure are allowed to change. One such application is computational mutagenesis, in which functional amino acids in a protein structure are identified by examining systematic amino acid mutations in the protein structure (i.e., to characterize when a protein ?loses? function). In this setting, performing updates to the model (i.e., mutations) and queries (i.e., the free energy or maximum likelihood set of rotameric states) to determine the effect of updates would be likely be far more efficient than standard methods. Thus, our algorithm has the potential to substantially speed up computational studies that examine each of a large number local changes to protein structure, such as in the study of protein flexibility and dynamics. Interestingly, [6] actually give a sample application in computational biology, although their model is a simple sequence-based HMM in which they consider the effect of changing observed sequence on secondary structure only. The simulation results given in Fig. 3 validate the use of our algorithm for these applications, since protein-structure based graphical models have similar complexity to the inputs we consider: proteins range in size from hundreds to thousands of amino acids, and each amino acid typically has relatively few rotameric states and local interactions. As in prior work [17], our simulation considers a small number of rotamers per amino acid, but the one to two order-of-magnitude speedups obtained by our algorithm indicate that it maybe be possible also to handle higher-resolution models (e.g., with more rotamer states, or degrees of freedom in the protein backbone). 6 Conclusion We give an algorithm for adaptive inference in dynamically changing tree-structured Bayesian networks. Given n nodes in the network, our algorithm can support updates to the observed evidence, conditional probability distributions, as well as updates to the network structure (as long as they keep the network tree-structured) with O(n) preprocessing time and O(log n) time for queries on any marginal distribution. Our algorithm can easily be modified to maintain MAP estimates as well as compute data likelihoods dynamically, with the same time bounds. We implement the algorithm and show that it can speed up Bayesian inference by orders of magnitude after small updates to the network. Applying our algorithm on the junction tree representation of a graph yields an inference algorithm that can handle updates on conditional distributions and observed evidence in general Bayesian networks (e.g., with cycles); an interesting open question is whether updates to the network structure (i.e., edge insertions/deletions) can also be supported. 2 Available for download at http://www.ics.uci.edu/?ihler/code/. 7 Naive sum?product Build Query Update Restructure ?1 Time (sec) 10 ?2 10 ?3 10 2 3 10 10 # of nodes Figure 3: Log-log plot of run time for naive sum-product, building the cluster tree, computing queries, updating factors, and restructuring (adding and deleting edges). Although building the cluster tree is slightly more expensive than sum-product, each subsequent update and query is between 10 and 100 times more efficient than recomputing from scratch. References [1] Umut A. Acar, Guy E. Blelloch, Matthias Blume, and Kanat Tangwongsan. An experimental analysis of self-adjusting computation. In Proceedings of the ACM SIGPLAN Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation (PLDI), 2006. [2] Umut A. Acar, Guy E. Blelloch, Robert Harper, Jorge L. Vittes, and Maverick Woo. Dynamizing static algorithms with applications to dynamic trees and history independence. In ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA), 2004. [3] Umut A. Acar, Guy E. Blelloch, and Jorge L. Vittes. An experimental analysis of change propagation in dynamic trees. In Workshop on Algorithm Engineering and Experimentation (ALENEX), 2005. [4] H. M. Berman, J. Westbrook, Z. Feng, G. Gilliland, T. N. Bhat, H. Weissig, I. N. Shindyalov, and P. E. Bourne. The protein data bank. Nucl. Acids Res., 28:235?242, 2000. [5] P. Clifford. Markov random fields in statistics. In G. R. Grimmett and D. J. A. Welsh, editors, Disorder in Physical Systems, pages 19?32. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990. [6] A. L. Delcher, A. J. Grove, S. Kasif, and J. 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Neural characterization in partially observed populations of spiking neurons Jonathan W. Pillow Peter Latham Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, UCL 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR, UK [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Point process encoding models provide powerful statistical methods for understanding the responses of neurons to sensory stimuli. Although these models have been successfully applied to neurons in the early sensory pathway, they have fared less well capturing the response properties of neurons in deeper brain areas, owing in part to the fact that they do not take into account multiple stages of processing. Here we introduce a new twist on the point-process modeling approach: we include unobserved as well as observed spiking neurons in a joint encoding model. The resulting model exhibits richer dynamics and more highly nonlinear response properties, making it more powerful and more flexible for fitting neural data. More importantly, it allows us to estimate connectivity patterns among neurons (both observed and unobserved), and may provide insight into how networks process sensory input. We formulate the estimation procedure using variational EM and the wake-sleep algorithm, and illustrate the model?s performance using a simulated example network consisting of two coupled neurons. 1 Introduction A central goal of computational neuroscience is to understand how the brain transforms sensory input into spike trains, and considerable effort has focused on the development of statistical models that can describe this transformation. One of the most successful of these is the linear-nonlinearPoisson (LNP) cascade model, which describes a cell?s response in terms of a linear filter (or receptive field), an output nonlinearity, and an instantaneous spiking point process [1?5]. Recent efforts have generalized this model to incorporate spike-history and multi-neuronal dependencies, which greatly enhances the model?s flexibility, allowing it to capture non-Poisson spiking statistics and joint responses of an entire population of neurons [6?10]. Point process models accurately describe the spiking responses of neurons in the early visual pathway to light, and of cortical neurons to injected currents. However, they perform poorly both in higher visual areas and in auditory cortex, and often do not generalize well to stimuli whose statistics differ from those used for fitting. Such failings are in some ways not surprising: the cascade model?s stimulus sensitivity is described with a single linear filter, whereas responses in the brain reflect multiple stages of nonlinear processing, adaptation on multiple timescales, and recurrent feedback from higher-level areas. However, given its mathematical tractability and its accuracy in capturing the input-output properties of single neurons, the model provides a useful building block for constructing richer and more complex models of neural population responses. Here we extend the point-process modeling framework to incorporate a set of unobserved or ?hidden? neurons, whose spike trains are unknown and treated as hidden or latent variables. The unobserved neurons respond to the stimulus and to synaptic inputs from other neurons, and their spiking 1 activity can in turn affect the responses of the observed neurons. Consequently, their functional properties and connectivity can be inferred from data [11?18]. However, the idea is not to simply build a more powerful statistical model, but to develop a model that can help us learn something about the underlying structure of networks deep in the brain. Although this expanded model offers considerably greater flexibility in describing an observed set of neural responses, it is more difficult to fit to data. Computing the likelihood of an observed set of spike trains requires integrating out the probability distribution over hidden activity, and we need sophisticated algorithms to find the maximum likelihood estimate of model parameters. Here we introduce a pair of estimation procedures based on variational EM (expectation maximization) and the wake-sleep algorithm. Both algorithms make use of a novel proposal density to capture the dependence of hidden spikes on the observed spike trains, which allows for fast sampling of hidden neurons? activity. In the remainder of this paper we derive the basic formalism and demonstrate its utility on a toy problem consisting of two neurons, one of which is observed and one which is designated ?hidden?. We show that a single-cell model used to characterize the observed neuron performs poorly, while a coupled two-cell model estimated using the wake-sleep algorithm performs much more accurately. 2 Multi-neuronal point-process encoding model We begin with a description of the encoding model, which generalizes the LNP model to incorporate non-Poisson spiking and coupling between neurons. We refer to this as a generalized linear pointprocess (glpp) model 1 [8, 9]. For simplicity, we formulate the model for a pair of neurons, although it can be tractably applied to data from a moderate-sized populations (?10-100 neurons). In this section we do not distinguish between observed and unobserved spikes, but will do so in the next. Let xt denote the stimulus at time t, and y t and zt denote the number of spikes elicited by two neurons at t, where t ? [0, T ] is an index over time. Note that x t is a vector containing all elements of the stimulus that are causally related to the (scalar) responses y t and zt at time t. Furthermore, let us assume t takes on a discrete set of values, with bin size ?, i.e., t ? {0, ?, 2?, . . . , T }. Typically ? is sufficiently small that we observe only zero or one spike in every bin: y t , zt ? {0, 1}. The conditional intensity (or instantaneous spike rate) of each cell depends on both the stimulus and the recent spiking history via a bank of linear filters. Let y [t??,t) and z[t??,t) denote the (vector) spike train histories at time t. Here [t ? ?, t) refers to times between t ? ? and t ? ?, so y [t??,t) ? (yt?? , yt?? +? , ..., yt?2? , yt?? ) and similarly for z [t??,t) . The conditional intensities for the two cells are then given by ?yt = f (ky ? xt + hyy ? y[t??,t) + hyz ? z[t??,t) ) ?zt = f (kz ? xt + hzz ? z[t??,t) + hzy ? y[t??,t) ) (1) where ky and kz are linear filters representing each cell?s receptive field, h yy and hzz are filters operating on each cell?s own spike-train history (capturing effects like refractoriness and bursting), and hzy and hyz are a filters coupling the spike train history of each neuron to the other (allowing the model to capture statistical correlations and functional interactions between neurons). The ??? notation represents the standard dot product (performing a summation over either index or time):  k ? xt ? ki xit i h ? y[t??,t) ? t??  ht yt , t =t?? where the index i run over the components of the stimuli (which typically are time points extending into the past). The second expression generalizes to h ? z [t??,t) . The nonlinear function, f , maps the input to the instantaneous spike rate of each cell. We assume here that f is exponential, although any monotonic convex function that grows no faster than expo1 We adapt this terminology from ?generalized linear model? (glm), a much more general class of models from the statistics literature [19]; this model is a glm whose distribution function is Poisson. 2 = stimulus filter x ky + exp(?) stimulus y xt hyy hyy coupling filters neuron z ky f neuron y kz equivalent model diagram stochastic nonlinearity spiking post-spike filter x > point-process model neuron y spikes hzy x1 x2 x3 x4 ... y1 y2 y3 y4 ... z1 z2 z3 z4 ... hzy neuron z spikes + causal structure + y[t-?,t) yt hyz ? time z[t-?,t) z time hzz Figure 1: Schematic of generalized linear point-process (glpp) encoding model. a, Diagram of model parameters for a pair of coupled neurons. For each cell, the parameters consist of a stimulus filter (e.g., ky ), a spike-train history filter (hyy ), and a filter capturing coupling from the spike train history of the other cell (hzy ). The filter outputs are summed, pass through an exponential nonlinearity, and drive spiking via an instantaneous point process. b, Equivalent diagram showing just the parameters of the neuron y, as used for drawing a sample yt . Gray boxes highlight the stimulus vector xt and spike train history vectors that form the input to the model on this time step. c, Simplified graphical model of the glpp causal structure, which allows us to visualize how the likelihood factorizes. Arrows between variables indicate conditional dependence. For visual clarity, temporal dependence is depicted as extending only two time bins, though in real data extends over many more. Red arrows highlight the dependency structure for a single time bin of the response y3 . nentially is suitable [9]. Equation 1 is equivalent to f applied to a linear convolution of the stimulus and spike trains with their respective filters; a schematic is shown in figure 1. The probability of observing y t spikes in a bin of size ? is given by a Poisson distribution with rate parameter ?yt ?, (?yt ?)yt ??yt ? e , yt ! P (yt |?yt ) = (2) and likewise for P (z t |?zt ). The likelihood of the full set of spike times is the product of conditionally independent terms, P (Y, Z|X, ?) =  P (yt |?yt )P (zt |?zt ), (3) t where Y and Z represent the full spike trains, X denotes the full set of stimuli, and ? ? {ky , kz , hyy , hzy , hzz , hyz } denotes the model parameters. This factorization is possible because ?yt and ?zt depend only on the process history up to time t, making y t and zt conditionally independent given the stimulus and spike histories up to t (see Fig. 1c). If the response at time t were to depend on both the past and future response, we would have a causal loop , preventing factorization and making both sampling and likelihood evaluation very difficult. The model parameters can be tractably fit to spike-train data using maximum likelihood. Although the parameter space may be high-dimensional (incorporating spike-history dependence over many time bins and stimulus dependence over a large region of time and space), the negative log-likelihood is convex with respect to the model parameters, making fast convex optimization methods feasible for finding the global maximum [9]. We can write the log-likelihood simply as  log P (Y, Z|X, ?) = (yt log ?yt + zt log ?zt ? ??yt ? ??zt ) + c, (4) t where c is a constant that does not depend on ?. 3 3 Generalized Expectation-Maximization and Wake-Sleep Maximizing log P (Y, Z|X, ?) is straightforward if both Y and Z are observed, but here we are interested in the case where Y is observed and Z is ?hidden?. Consequently, we have to average over Z. The log-likelihood of the observed data is given by  L(?) ? log P (Y |?) = log P (Y, Z|?), (5) Z where we have dropped X to simplify notation (all probabilities can henceforth be taken to also depend on X). This sum over Z is intractable in many settings, motivating the use of approximate methods for maximizing likelihood. Variational expectation-maximization (EM) [20, 21] and the wake-sleep algorithm [22] are iterative algorithms for solving this problem by introducing a tractable approximation to the conditional probability over hidden variables, Q(Z|Y, ?) ? P (Z|Y, ?), (6) where ? denotes the parameter vector determining Q. The idea behind variational EM can be described as follows. Concavity of the log implies a lower bound on the log-likelihood:  P (Y, Z|?) L(?) ? Q(Z|Y, ?) log Q(Z|Y, ?) Z   (7) = log P (Y |?) ? DKL Q(Z|Y, ?), P (Z|Y, ?) , where Q is any probability distribution over Z and D KL is the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between Q and P (using P as shorthand for P (Z|Y, ?)), which is always ? 0. In standard EM, Q takes the same functional form as P , so that by setting ? = ? (the E-step), D KL is 0 and the bound is tight, since the right-hand-side of eq. 7 equals L(?). Fixing ?, we then maximize the r.h.s. for ? (the M-step), which is equivalent to maximizing the expected complete-data log-likelihood (expectation taken w.r.t. Q), given by    EQ(Z|Y,?) log P (Y, Z|?) ? Q(Z|Y, ?) log P (Y, Z|?). (8) Z Each step increases a lower bound on the log-likelihood, which can always be made tight, so the algorithm converges to a fixed point that is a maximum of L(?). The variational formulation differs in allowing Q to take a different functional form than P (i.e., one for which eq. 8 is easier to maximize). The variational E-step involves minimizing D KL (Q, P ) with respect to ?, which remains positive if Q does not approximate P exactly; the variational M-step is unchanged from the standard algorithm. In certain cases, it is easier to minimize the KL divergence D KL (P, Q) than DKL (Q, P ), and doing so in place of the variational E-step above results in the wake-sleep algorithm [22]. In this algorithm, we fit ? by minimizing D KL (P, Q) averaged over Y , which is equivalent to maximizing the expectation    EP (Y,Z|?) log Q(Z|Y, ?) ? P (Y, Z|?) log Q(Z|Y, ?), (9) Y,Z which bears an obvious symmetry to eq. 8. Thus, both steps of the wake-sleep algorithm involve maximizing an expected log-probability. In the ?wake? step (identical to the M-step), we fit the true model parameters ? by maximizing (an approximation to) the log-probability of the observed data Y . In the ?sleep? step, we fit ? by trying to find a distribution Q that best approximates the conditional dependence of Z on Y , averaged over the joint distribution P (Y, Z|?). We can therefore think of the wake phase as learning a model of the data (parametrized by ?), and the sleep phase as learning a consistent internal description of that model (parametrized by ?). Both variational-EM and the wake-sleep algorithm work well when Q closely approximates P , but may fail to converge to a maximum of the likelihood if there is a significant mismatch. Therefore, the efficiency of these methods depends on choosing a good approximating distribution Q(Z|Y, ?) ? one that closely matches P (Z|Y, ?). In the next section we show that considerations of the spike generation process can provide us with a good choice for Q. 4 = acausal model schematic kz exp(?) stimulus neuron z spikes (hidden) neuron y spikes (observed) xt hzz + z[t-t,t) zt hyz > causal structure x1 x2 x3 x4 z1 z2 z3 z4 y1 y2 y3 y4 time y[t-? , t+?] time Figure 2: Schematic diagram of the (acausal) model for the proposal density Q(Z|Y, ?), the conditional density on hidden spikes given the observed spike data. a, Conditional model schematic, which allows zt to depend on the observed response both before and after t. b, Graphical model showing causal structure of the acausal model, with arrows indicating dependency. The observed spike responses (gray circles) are no longer dependent variables, but regarded as fixed, external data, which is necessary for computing Q(zt |Y, ?). Red arrows illustrate the dependency structure for a single bin of the hidden response, z3 . 4 Estimating the model with partially observed data To understand intuitively why the true P (Z|Y, ?) is difficult to sample, and to motivate a reasonable choice for Q(Z|Y, ?), let us consider a simple example: suppose a single hidden neuron (whose full response is Z) makes a strong excitatory connection to an observed neuron (whose response is Y ), so that if zt = 1 (i.e., the hidden neuron spikes at time t), it is highly likely that y t+1 = 1 (i.e., the observed neuron spikes at time t + 1). Consequently, under the true P (Z|Y, ?), which is the probability over Z in all time bins given Y in all time bins, if y t+1 = 1 there is a high probability that zt = 1. In other words, z t exhibits an acausal dependence on y t+1 . But this acausal dependence is not captured in Equation 3, which expresses the probability over z t as depending only on past events at time t, ignoring the future event y t+1 = 1. Based on this observation ? essentially, that the effect of future observed spikes on the probability of unobserved spikes depends on the connection strength between the two neurons ? we approximate P (Z|Y, ?) using a separate point-process model Q(Z|Y, ?), which contains set of acausal linear filters from Y to Z. Thus we have ? zt = exp(k ? z ? xt + h ? zz ? z[t??,t) + h ? zy ? y[t??,t+? ) ). ? (10) ?z , h ? zz and h ? zy are linear filters; the important difference is that h ? zy ? y[t??,t+? ) is As above, k a sum over past and future time: from t ? ? to t + ? ? ?. For this model, the parameters are ? zz , h ? zy ). Figure 2 illustrates the model architecture. ?z , h ? = (k We now have a straightforward way to implement the wake-sleep algorithm, using samples from Q to perform the wake phase (estimating ?), and samples from P (Y, Z|?) to perform the sleep phase (estimating ?). The algorithm works as follows: ? Wake: Draw samples {Zi } ? Q(Z|Y, ?), where Y are the observed spike trains and ? is the current set of parameters for the acausal point-process model Q. Evaluate the expected complete-data log-likelihood (eq. 8) using Monte Carlo integration: N   1  EQ log P (Y, Z|?) = lim log P (Y, Zi |?). N ?? N i=1 (11) This is log-concave in ?, meaning that we can efficiently find its global maximum to fit ?. 5 ? Sleep: Draw samples {Yj , Zj } ? P (Y, Z|?), the true encoding distribution with current parameters ?. (Note these samples are pure ?fantasy? data, drawn without reference to the observed Y ). As above, compute the expected log-probability (eq. 9) using these samples: EP (Y,Z|?)  N  1  log Q(Z|Y, ?) = lim log Q(Zj |Yj , ?), N ?? N i=1 (12) which is also log-concave and thus efficiently maximized for ?. One advantage of the wake-sleep algorithm is that each complete iteration can be performed using only a single set of samples drawn from Q and P . A theoretical drawback to wake-sleep, however, is that the sleep step is not guaranteed to increase a lower-bound on the log-likelihood, as in variationalEM (wake-sleep minimizes the ?wrong? KL divergence). We can implement variational-EM using the same approximating point-process model Q, but we now require multiple steps of sampling for a complete E-step. To perform a variational E-step, we draw samples (as above) from Q and use  them to evaluate both the KL divergence D KL Q(Z|Y, ?)||P (Z|Y, ?) and its gradient with respect to ?. We can then perform noisy gradient descent to find a minimum, drawing a new set of samples for each evaluation of D KL (Q, P ). The M-step is equivalent to the wake phase of wake-sleep, achievable with a single set of samples. One additional use for the approximating point-process model Q is as a ?proposal? distribution for Metropolis-Hastings sampling of the true P (Z|Y, ?). Such samples can be used to evaluate the true log-likelihood, for comparison with the variational lower bound, and for noisy gradient ascent of the likelihood to examine how closely these approximate methods converge to the true ML estimate. For fully observed data, such samples also provide a useful means for measuring how much the entropy of one neuron?s response is reduced by knowing the responses of its neighbors. 5 Simulations: a two-neuron example To verify the method, we applied it to a pair of neurons (as depicted in fig. 1), simulated using a stimulus consisting of a long presentation of white noise. We denoted one of the neurons ?observed? and the other ?hidden?. The parameters used for the simulation are depicted in fig. 3. The cells have similarly-shaped biphasic stimulus filters with opposite sign, like those commonly observed in ON and OFF retinal ganglion cells. We assume that the ON-like cell is observed, while the OFF-like cell is hidden. Both cells have spike-history filters that induce a refractory period following a spike, with a small peak during the relative refractory period that elicits burst-like responses. The hidden cell has a strong positive coupling filter h zy onto the observed cell, which allows spiking activity in the hidden cell to excite the observed cell (despite the fact that the two cells receive opposite-sign stimulus input). For simplicity, we assume no coupling from the observed to the hidden cell 2 . Both types of filters were defined in a linear basis consisting of four raised cosines, meaning that each filter is specified by four parameters, and the full model contains 20 parameters (i.e., 2 stimulus filters and 3 spike-train filters). Fig. 3b shows rasters of the two cells? responses to a repeated presentations of a 1s Gaussian whitenoise stimulus with a framerate of 100Hz. Note that the temporal structure of the observed cell?s response is strongly correlated with that of the hidden cell due to the strong coupling from hidden to observed (and the fact that the hidden cell receives slightly stronger stimulus drive). Our first task is to examine whether a standard, single-cell glpp model can capture the mapping from stimuli to spike responses. Fig. 3c shows the parameters obtained from such a fit to the observed data, using 10s of the response to a non-repeating white noise stimulus (1000 samples, 251 spikes). Note that the estimated stimulus filter (red) has much lower amplitude than the stimulus filter of the true model (gray). Fig. 3d shows the parameters obtained for an observed and a hidden neuron, estimated using wake-sleep as described in section 4. Fig. 3e-f shows a comparison of the performance of the two models, indicating that the coupled model estimated with wake-sleep does a much better job of capturing the temporal structure of the observed neuron?s response (accounting for 60% vs. 15% of 2 Although the stimulus and spike-history filters bear a rough similarity to those observed in retinal ganglion cells, the coupling used here is unlike coupling filters observed (to our knowledge) between ON and OFF cells in retinal data; it is assumed purely for demonstration purposes. 6 2 0 -2 ky kz -0.2 > ? true parameters 0 -10 -20 hzy 0 -10 -20 0 0 hyy hzz @ coupled-model estimate using variational EM 0.05 A single-cell model estimate GWN stimulus B hidden observed raster raster raster comparison coupled singletrue model cell observed observed 2 0 -2 hidden = psth comparison true rate (Hz) 100 0 0.5 time (s) 1 single-cell coupled 50 0 0 0.5 time (s) 1 Figure 3: Simulation results. a, Parameters used for generating simulated responses. The top row shows the filters determining the input to the observed cell, while the bottom row shows those influencing the hidden cell. b, Raster of spike responses of observed and hidden cells to a repeated, 1s Gaussian white noise stimulus (top). c, Parameter estimates for a single-cell glpp model fit to the observed cell?s response, using just the stimulus and observed data (estimates in red; true observedcell filters in gray). d, Parameters obtained using wake-sleep to estimate a coupled glpp model, again using only the stimulus and observed spike times. e, Response raster of true observed cell (obtained by simulating the true two-cell model), estimated single-cell model and estimated coupled model. f, Peri-stimulus time histogram (PSTH) of the above rasters showing that the coupled model gives much higher accuracy predicting the true response. the PSTH variance). The single-cell model, by contrast, exhibits much worse performance, which is unsurprising given that the standard glpp encoding model can capture only quasi-linear stimulus dependencies. 6 Discussion Although most statistical models of spike trains posit a direct pathway from sensory stimuli to neuronal responses, neurons are in fact embedded in highly recurrent networks that exhibit dynamics on a broad range of time-scales. To take into account the fact that neural responses are driven by both stimuli and network activity, and to understand the role of network interactions, we proposed a model incorporating both hidden and observed spikes. We regard the observed spike responses as those recorded during a typical experiment, while the responses of unobserved neurons are modeled as latent variables (unrecorded, but exerting influence on the observed responses). The resulting model is tractable, as the latent variables can be integrated out using approximate sampling methods, and optimization using variational EM or wake-sleep provides an approximate maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters. As shown by a simple example, certain settings of model parameters necessitate the incorporation unobserved spikes, as the standard single-stage encoding model does not accurately describe the data. In future work, we plan to examine the quantitative performance of the variational-EM and wakesleep algorithms, to explore their tractability in scaling to larger populations, and to apply them to real neural data. The model offers a promising tool for analyzing network structure and networkbased computations carried out in higher sensory areas, particularly in the context where data are only available from a restricted set of neurons recorded within a larger population. 7 References [1] I. Hunter and M. Korenberg. 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Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. [20] A. Dempster, N. Laird, and R. Rubin. Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. J. Royal Statistical Society, B, 39(1):1?38, 1977. [21] R. Neal and G. Hinton. A view of the EM algorithm that justifies incremental, sparse, and other variants. In M. I. Jordan, editor, Learning in Graphical Models, pages 355?368. MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999. [22] GE Hinton, P. Dayan, BJ Frey, and RM Neal. The? wake-sleep? algorithm for unsupervised neural networks. Science, 268(5214):1158?1161, 1995. 8
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Convex Relaxations of Latent Variable Training Yuhong Guo and Dale Schuurmans Department of Computing Science University of Alberta {yuhong, dale}@cs.ualberta.ca Abstract We investigate a new, convex relaxation of an expectation-maximization (EM) variant that approximates a standard objective while eliminating local minima. First, a cautionary result is presented, showing that any convex relaxation of EM over hidden variables must give trivial results if any dependence on the missing values is retained. Although this appears to be a strong negative outcome, we then demonstrate how the problem can be bypassed by using equivalence relations instead of value assignments over hidden variables. In particular, we develop new algorithms for estimating exponential conditional models that only require equivalence relation information over the variable values. This reformulation leads to an exact expression for EM variants in a wide range of problems. We then develop a semidefinite relaxation that yields global training by eliminating local minima. 1 Introduction Few algorithms are better known in machine learning and statistics than expectation-maximization (EM) [5]. One reason is that EM solves a common problem?learning from incomplete data?that occurs in almost every area of applied statistics. Equally well known to the algorithm itself, however, is the fact that EM suffers from shortcomings. Here it is important to distinguish between the EM algorithm (essentially a coordinate descent procedure [10]) and the objective it optimizes (marginal observed or conditional hidden likelihood). Only one problem is due to the algorithm itself: since it is a simple coordinate descent, EM suffers from slow (linear) convergence and therefore can require a large number of iterations to reach a solution. Standard optimization algorithms such as quasi-Newton methods can, in principle, require exponentially fewer iterations to achieve the same accuracy (once close enough to a well behaved solution) [2, 11]. Nevertheless, EM converges quickly in many circumstances [12, 13]. The main problems attributed to EM are not problems with the algorithm per se, but instead are properties of the objective it optimizes. In particular, the standard objectives tackled by EM are not convex in any standard probability model (e.g. the exponential family). Non-convexity immediately creates the risk of local minima, which unfortunately is not just a theoretical concern: EM often does not produce very good results in practice, and can sometimes fail to improve significantly upon initial parameter settings [9]. For example, the field of unsupervised grammar induction [8] has been thwarted in its attempts to use EM for decades and is still unable to infer useful syntactic models of natural language from raw unlabeled text. We present a convex relaxation of EM for a standard training criterion and a general class of models in an attempt to understand whether local minima are really a necessary aspect of unsupervised learning. Convex relaxations have been a popular topic in machine learning recently [4, 16]. In this paper, we propose a convex relaxation of EM that can be applied to a general class of directed graphical models, including mixture models and Bayesian networks, in the presence of hidden variables. There are some technical barriers to overcome in achieving an effective convex relaxation however. First, as we will show, any convex relaxation of EM must produce trivial results if it maintains any dependence on the values of hidden variables. Although this result suggests that any convex relaxation of EM cannot succeed, we subsequently show that the problem can be overcome by working with equivalence relations over the values of the hidden variables, rather than the missing values themselves. Although equivalence relations provide an easy way to solve the symmetry collapsing problem, they do not immediately yield a convex EM formulation, because the underlying estimation principles for directed graphical models have not been formulated in these terms. Our main technical contribution therefore is a reformulation of standard estimation principles for exponential conditional models in terms of equivalence relations on variable values, rather than the variable values themselves. Given an adequate reformulation of the core estimation principle, developing a useful convex relaxation of EM becomes possible. 1.1 EM Variants Before proceeding, it is important to first clarify the precise EM variant we address. In fact, there are many EM variants that optimize different criteria. Let z = (x, y) denote a complete observation, where x refers to the observed part of the data and y refers to the unobserved part; and let w refer to the parameters of the underlying probability model, P (x, y|w). (Here we consider discrete probability distributions just for simplicity of the discussion.) Joint and conditional EM algorithms are naive ?self-supervised? training procedures that alternate between inferring the values of the missing variables and optimizing the parameters of the model (joint EM update) y(k+1) = arg max P (x, y|w(k) ) w(k+1) = arg max P (x, y(k+1) |w) y (conditional EM update) y (k+1) w = arg max P (y|x, w (k) y ) w (k+1) = arg max P (y(k+1) |x, w) w These are clearly coordinate descent procedures that make monotonic progress in their objectives, P (x, y|w) and P (y|x, w). Moreover, the criteria being optimized are in fact well motivated objectives for unsupervised training: joint EM is frequently used in statistical natural language processing (where it is referred to as ?Viterbi EM? [3, 7]); the conditional form has been used in [16]. The primary problem with these iterations is not that they optimize approximate or unjustified criteria, but rather that they rapidly get stuck in poor local maxima due to the extreme updates made on y. By far, the more common form of EM?contributing the very name expectation-maximization?is given by P (k+1) (marginal EM update) q(k+1) = P (y|x, w(k) ) w(k+1) = arg max y qy log P (x, y|w) y w where qy is a distribution over possible missing values. Although it is not immediately obvious what this iteration optimizes, it has long been known that it monotonically improves the marginal later showed that the E-step could be generalized to  P likelihood P (x|w) [5]. [10] maxqy y qy log P (x, y|w(k) )/qy . Due to the softer qy update, the standard EM update does not as converge as rapidly to a local maximum as the joint and conditional variants; however, as a result, it tends to find better local maxima. Marginal EM has subsequently become the dominant form of EM algorithm in the literature (although joint EM is still frequently used in statistical NLP [3, 7]). Nevertheless, none of the training criteria are jointly convex in the optimization variables, thus these iterations are only guaranteed to find local maxima. Independent of the updates, the three training criteria are not equivalent nor equally well motivated. In fact, for most applications we are more interested in acquiring an accurate conditional P (y|x, w), rather than optimizing the marginal P (x|w) [16]. Of the three training criteria therefore (joint, conditional and marginal), marginal likelihood appears to be the least relevant to learning predictive models. Nevertheless, the convex relaxation techniques we propose can be applied to all three objectives. For simplicity we will focus on maximizing joint likelihood in this paper, since it incorporates aspects of both marginal and conditional training. Conveniently, joint and marginal EM pose nearly identical optimization problems: P  (joint EM objective) arg max max P (x, y|w) = arg max max qy log P (x, y|w) y w y w qy P  P (marg. EM objective) arg max y P (x, y|w) = arg max max y qy log P (x, y|w) +H(qy ) w w qy where qy is a distribution over possible missing values [10]. Therefore, much of the analysis we provide for joint EM also applies to marginal EM, leaving only a separate convex relaxation of the entropy term that can be conducted independently. We will also primarily consider the hidden variable case and assume a fixed set of random variables Y1 , ..., Y` is always unobserved, and a fixed set of variables X`+1 , ..., Xn is always observed. The technique remains extendable to the general missing value case however. 2 A Cautionary Result for Convexity Our focus in this paper will be to develop a jointly convex relaxation to the minimization problem posed by joint EM P (1) min min ? i log P (xi , yi |w) y w One obvious issue we must face is to relax the discrete constraints on the assignments y. However, the challenge is deeper than this. In the hidden variable case?when the same variables are missing in each observation?there is a complete symmetry between the missing values. In particular, for any optimal solution (y, w) there must be other, equivalent solutions (y 0 , w0 ) corresponding to a permutation of the hidden variable values. Unfortunately, this form of solution symmetry has devastating consequences for any convex relaxation: Assume one attempts to use any jointly convex relaxation f (qy , w) of the standard loglikelihood objective (1), where the the missing variable assignment y has been relaxed into a continuous probabilistic assignment qy (like standard EM). Lemma 1 If f is strictly convex and invariant to permutations of unobserved variable values, then the global minimum of f , (q?y , w? ), must satisfy q?y = uniform. Proof: Assume (qy , w) is a global minimum of f but qy 6= uniform. Then there must be some permutation of the missing values, ?, such that the alternative (q0y , w0 ) = (?(qy ), ?(w)) satisfies q0y 6= qy . But by the permutation invariance of f , this implies f (qy , w) = f (q0y , w0 ). By the strict  convexity of f , we then have f ?(qy , w) + (1 ? ?)(q0y , w0 ) < ?f (qy , w)+(1??)f (q0y , w0 ) = f (qy , w), for 0 < ? < 1, contradicting the global optimality of f (qy , w). Therefore, any convex relaxation of (1) that uses a distribution qy over missing values and does not make arbitrary distinctions can never do anything but produce a uniform distribution over the hidden variable values. (The same is true for marginal and conditional versions of EM.) Moreover, any non-strictly convex relaxation must admit the uniform distribution as a possible solution. This trivialization is perhaps the main reason why standard EM objectives have not been previously convexified. (Note that standard coordinate descent algorithms simply break the symmetry arbitrarily and descend into some local solution.) This negative result seems to imply that no useful convex relaxation of EM is possible in the hidden variable case. However, our key observation is that a convex relaxation expressed in terms of an equivalence relation over the missing values avoids this symmetry breaking problem. In particular, equivalence relations exactly collapse the unresolvable symmetries in this context, while still representing useful structure over the hidden assignments. Representations based on equivalence relations are a useful tool for unsupervised learning that has largely been overlooked (with some exceptions [4, 15]). Our goal in this paper, therefore, will be to reformulate standard training objectives to use only equivalence relations on hidden variable values. 3 Directed Graphical Models We will derive a convex relaxation framework for a general class of probability models?namely, directed models?that includes mixture models and discrete Bayesian networks as special cases. A directed model defines a joint probability distribution over a set of random variables Z 1 , ..., Zn by exploiting the chain rule of probability Qnto decompose the joint into a product of locally normalized conditional distributions P (z|w) = j=1 P (zj |z?(j) , wj ). Here, ?(j) ? {1, ..., j ? 1}, and wj is the set of parameters defining conditional distribution j. Furthermore, we will assume an exponential family representation for the conditional distributions  P (zj |z?(j) , wj ) = exp wj> ?j (zj , z?(j) ) ? A(wj , z?(j) ) , where P  > A(wj , z?(j) ) = log a exp wj ?j (a, z?(j) ) and ?j (zj , z?(j) ) denotes a vector of features evaluated on the value of the child and its parents. For simplicity, we will initially restrict our discussion to discrete Bayesian networks, but then reintroduce continuous random variables later. A discrete Bayesian network is just a directed model where the conditional distributions are represented by a sparse feature vector indicating the identity of the child-parent configuration ?j (zj , z?(j) ) = (...1(zj =a,z?(j) =b) ...)> . That is, there is a single indicator feature for each local configuration (a, b). A particularly convenient property of directed models is that the complete data likelihood decomposes into an independent sum of local loglikelihoods P P P > i i i i (2) j i wj ?j (zj , z?(j) ) ? A(wj , z?(j) ) i log P (z |w) = Thus the problem of solving for a maximum likelihood set of parameters, given complete training data, amounts to solving a set of independent log-linear regression problems, one for each variable Zj . To simplify notation, consider one of the log-linear regression problems in (2) and drop the subscript j. Then, using a matrix notation we can rewrite the jth local optimization problem as  P > min i A(W, ?i: ) ? tr(?W Y ) W where W ? IR , ? ? {0, 1}t?c , and Y ? {0, 1}t?v , such that t is the number of training examples, v is the number of possible values for the child variable, c is the number of possible configurations for the parent variables, and tr is the matrix trace. To explain this notation, note that Y and ? are indicator matrices that have a single 1 in each row, where Y indicates the value of the child variable, and ? indicates the specific configuration of the parent values, respectively; i.e. Y 1 = 1 and ?1 = 1, where 1 denotes the vector of all 1s. (This matrix notation greatly streamlines the presentation below.) We also use the notation ?i:Pto denote the ith row vector in ?. Here, the log normalization factor is given by A(W, ?i: ) = log a exp (?i: W 1a ), where 1a denotes a sparse vector with a single 1 in position a. c?v Below, we will consider a regularized form of the objective, and thereby work with the maximum a posteriori (MAP) form of the problem P  ? min A(W, ?i: ) ? tr(?W Y > ) + tr(W > W ) (3) i W 2 This provides the core estimation principle at the heart of Bayesian network parameter learning. However, for our purposes it suffers from a major drawback: (3) is not expressed in terms of equivalence relations between the variable values. Rather it is expressed in terms of direct indicators of specific variable values in specific examples?which will lead to a trivial outcome if we attempt any convex relaxation. Instead, we require a fundamental reformulation of (3) to remove the value dependence and replace it with a dependence only on equivalence relationships. 4 Log-linear Regression on Equivalence Relations The first step in reformulating (3) in terms of equivalence relations is to derive its dual. Lemma 2 An equivalent optimization problem to (3) is max ?tr(? log ?> ) ? ?  1 tr (Y ? ?)> ??> (Y ? ?) 2? subject to ? ? 0, ?1 = 1 (4) Proof: The proof follows a standard derivation, which we sketch; see e.g. [14]. First, by considering the Fenchel conjugate of A it can be shown that A(W, ?i: ) = > max tr(?> i: ?i: W ) ? ?i: log ?i: ?i: subject to ?i: ? 0, ?i: 1 = 1 Substituting this in (3) and then invoking the strong minimax property [1] allows one to show that (3) is equivalent to ? max min ?tr(? log ?> ) ? tr((Y ? ?)> ?W ) + tr(W > W ) subject to ? ? 0, ?1 = 1 ? W 2 Finally, the inner minimization can be solved by setting W = 1 > ? ? (Y ? ?), yielding (4). Interestingly, deriving the dual has already achieved part of the desired result: the parent configurations now only enter the problem through the kernel matrix K = ??> . For Bayesian networks this kernel matrix is in fact an equivalence relation between parent configurations: ? is a 0-1 indicator matrix with a single 1 in each row, implying that Kij = 1 iff ?i: = ?j: , and Kij = 0 otherwise. But more importantly, K can be re-expressed as a function of the individual equivalence relations on each of the parent variables. Let Y p ? {0, 1}t?vp indicate the value of a parent variable Zp for each training example. That is, Yi:p is a 1 ? vp sparse row vector with a single 1 indicating the value of variable Zp in example i. Then M p = Y p Y p > defines an equivalence relation over the assignments p p = 0 otherwise. It is not hard to see that the = 1 if Yi:p = Yj:p and Mij to variable Zp , since Mij equivalence relation over complete parent configurations, K = ??> , is equal to the componentwise (Hadamard) product of the individual equivalence relations for each parent variable. That is, p 1 2 = 1. K = ??> = M 1 ? M 2 ? ? ? ? ? M p , since Kij = 1 iff Mij = 1 and Mij = 1 and ... Mij Unfortunately, the dual problem (4) is still expressed in terms of the indicator matrix Y over child variable values, which is still not acceptable. We still need to reformulate (4) in terms of the equivalence relation matrix M = Y Y > . Consider an alternative dual parameterization ? ? IR t?t such that ? ? 0, ?1 = 1, and ?Y = ?. (Note that ? ? IRt?v , for v < t, and therefore ? is larger than ?. Also note that as long as every child value occurs at least once in the training set, Y has full rank v. If not, then the child variable effectively has fewer values, and we could simply reduce Y until it becomes full rank again without affecting the objective (3).) Therefore, since Y is full rank, for any ?, some ? must exist that achieves ?Y = ?. Then we can relate the primal parameters to this larger set of dual parameters by the relation W = ?1 ?> (I ? ?)Y . (Even though ? is larger than ?, they can only express the same realizable set of parameters W .) To simplify notation, let B = I ? ? and note the relation W = ?1 ?> BY . If we reparameterize the original problem using this relation, then it is possible to show that an equivalent optimization problem to (3) is given by P  1 A(B, ?i: ? tr(KBM ) + min tr(B > KBM ) subject to B ? I, B1 = 0 (5) i B 2? where K = ??> and M = Y Y > are equivalence relations on the parent configurations and child values respectively. The formulation (5) is now almost completely expressed in terms of equivalence relations P over the data, except for one subtle problem: the log normalization factor A(B, ?i: ) = log a exp ?1 ?i: ?> BY 1a still directly depends on the label indicator matrix Y . Our key technical lemma is that this log normalization factor can be re-expressed to depend on the equivalence relation matrix M alone.  P Lemma 3 A(B, ?i: ) = log j exp ?1 Ki: BM:j ? log 1> M:j Proof: The main observation is that an equivalence relation over value indicators, M = Y Y > , consists of columns copied from Y . That is, for all j, M:j = Y:a for some a corresponding to the child value in example j. Let y(j) denote the child value in example j and let ? i: = ?1 Ki: B. Then  P P P P 1 1 > a exp ? ?i: ? BY 1a = a exp(? i: Y:a ) = a j:y(j)=a |{`:y(`)=a}| exp(? i: M:j ) P P P 1 = j |{`:y(`)=y(j)}| exp(? i: M:j ) = j 1>1M:j exp(? i: M:j ) = j exp(? i: M:j ? log 1> M:j ) Using Lemma 3 one can show that the dual problem to (5) is given by the following. Theorem 1 An equivalent optimization problem to (3) is 1 max ?tr(? log ?> ) ? 1> ? log(M 1) ? tr((I ? ?)> K(I ? ?)M ) (6) ??0,?1=1 2? where K = M 1 ? ? ? ? ? M p for parent variables Z1 , ..., Zp . Proof: This follows the same derivation as Lemma 2, modified by taking into account the extra term introduced by Lemma 3. First, considering the Fenchel conjugate of A, it can be shown that 1 > Ki: BM ?> A(B, ?i: ) = max i: ? ?i: log ?i: ? ?i: log(M 1) ?i: ?0,?i: 1=1 ? Substituting this in (5) and then invoking the strong minimax property [1] allows one to show that (5) is equivalent to 1 1 max min ?tr(? log ?> ) ? 1> ? log(M 1) ? tr((I ? ?)> KBM ) + tr(B > KBM ) ??0,?1=1 B?I,B 1=0 ? 2? Finally, the inner minimization on B can be solved by setting B = I ? ?, yielding (6). This gives our key result: the log-linear regression (3) is equivalent to (6), which is now expressed strictly in terms of equivalence relations over the parent configurations and child values. That is, the value indicators, ? and Y , have been successfully eliminated from the formulation. Given a solution ?? to (6), the optimal model parameters W ? for (3) can be recovered via W ? = ?! ?> (I ? ?? )Y . 5 Convex Relaxation of Joint EM The equivalence relation form of log-linear regression can be used to derive useful relaxations of EM variants for directed models. In particular, by exploiting Theorem 1, we can now re-express the regularized form of the joint EM objective (1) strictly in terms of equivalence relations over the hidden variable values X ? min min ? log P (zji |zi?(j) , wj ) + wj> wj (7) wj 2 {Y h } j = min {M h } X j max > j ?tr(?j log ?> j ) ? 1 ?j log(M 1) ? ?j ?0,?j 1=1  1 tr (I ? ?j )>K j (I ? ?j )M j (8) 2? > subject to M h = Y h Y h , Y h ? {0, 1}t?vh , Y h 1 = 1 where h ranges over the hidden variables, and K Zj1 , ..., Zjp of Zj . j = M j1 ? ??? ? M (9) jp for the parent variables Note that (8) is an exact reformulation of the joint EM objective (7); no relaxation has yet been introduced. Another nice property of the objective in (8) is that is it concave in each ? j and convex in each M h individually (a maximum of convex functions is convex [2]). Therefore, (8) appears as though it might admit an efficient algorithmic solution. However, one difficulty in solving the resulting optimization problem is the constraints. Although the constraints imposed in (9) are not convex, there is a natural convex relaxation suggested by the following. Lemma 4 (9) is equivalent to: M ? {0, 1}t?t , diag(M ) = 1, M = M > , M  0, rank(M ) = v. A natural convex relaxation of (9) can therefore be obtained by relaxing the discreteness constraint and dropping the nonconvex rank constraint, yielding > M h ? [0, 1]t?t , diag(M h ) = 1, M h = M h , M h  0 (10) Optimizing the exact objective in (8) subject to the relaxed convex constraints (10) provides the foundation for our approach to convexifying EM. Note that since (8) and (10) are expressed solely in terms of equivalence relations, and do not depend on the specific values of hidden variables in any way, this formulation is not subject to the triviality result of Lemma 1. However, there are still some details left to consider. First, if there is only a single hidden variable then (8) is convex with respect to the single matrix variable M h . This result immediately provides a convex EM training algorithm for various applications, such as for mixture models for example (see the note regarding continuous random variables below). Second, if there are multiple hidden variables that are separated from each other (none are neighbors, nor share a common child) then the formulation (8) remains convex and can be directly applied. On the other hand, if hidden variables are connected in any way, either by sharing a parent-child relationship or having a common child, then (8) is no longer jointly convex because the trace term is no longer linear in the matrix variables {M h }. In this case, we can restore convexity by further relaxing the problem: To illustrate, if there are multiple hidden parents Zp1 , ..., Zp` for a given child, then the combined equivalence relation M p1 ? ? ? ? ? M p` is a Hadamard product of the individual matrices. A convex formulation can be ? to replace M p1 ?? ? ??M p` in (8) and adding recovered by introducing an auxiliary matrix variable M p ? ? ij ? M p1 + ? ? ? + M p` ? ` + 1 the set of linear constraints Mij ? Mij for p ? {p1 , ..., p` }, M ij ij to approximate the componentwise ?and?. A similar relaxation can also be applied when a child is hidden concurrently with hidden parent variables. Continuous Variables The formulation in (8) can be applied to directed models with continuous random variables, provided that all hidden variables remain discrete. If every continuous random variable is observed, then the subproblems on these variables can be kept in their natural formulations, and hence still solved. This extension is sufficient to allow the formulation to handle Gaussian mixture models, for example. Unfortunately, the techniques developed in this paper do not apply to the situation where there are continuous hidden variables. Recovering the Model Parameters Once the relaxed equivalence relation matrices {M h } have been obtained, the parameters of they underlying probability model need to be recovered. At an Bayesian Fully Supervised Viterbi EM Convex EM networks Train Test Train Test Train Test Synth1 7.23 ?.06 7.90 ?.04 11.29 ?.44 11.73 ?.38 8.96 ?.24 9.16 ?.21 Synth2 4.24 ?.04 4.50 ?.03 6.02 ?.20 6.41 ?.23 5.27 ?.18 5.55 ?.19 Synth3 4.93 ?.02 5.32 ?.05 7.81 ?.35 8.18 ?.33 6.23 ?.18 6.41 ?.14 Diabetes 5.23 ?.04 5.53 ?.04 6.70 ?.27 7.07 ?.23 6.51 ?.35 6.50 ?.28 Pima 5.07 ?.03 5.32 ?.03 6.74 ?.34 6.93 ?.21 5.81 ?.07 6.03 ?.09 Cancer 2.18 ?.05 2.31 ?.02 3.90 ?.31 3.94 ?.29 2.98 ?.19 3.06 ?.16 Alarm 10.23 ?.16 12.30 ?.06 11.94 ?.32 13.75 ?.17 11.74 ?.25 13.62 ?.20 Asian 2.17 ?.05 2.33 ?.02 2.21 ?.05 2.36 ?.03 2.70 ?.14 2.78 ?.12 Table 1: Results on synthetic and real-world Bayesian networks: average loss ? standard deviation optimal solution to (8), one not only obtains {M h }, but also the associated set of dual parameters {?j }. Therefore, we can recover the primal parameters Wj from the dual parameters ?j by using j the relationship Wj = ?1 ?> j (I ??j )Y established above, which only requires availability of a label j assignment matrix Y . For observed variables, Y j is known, and therefore the model parameters can be immediately recovered. For hidden variables, we first need to compute a rank v h factorization of M h . Let V = U ?1/2 where U and ? are the top vh eigenvector and eigenvalue matrices of the centered matrix HM h H, such that H = I ? 1t 11> . One simple idea to recover Y?h from V is to run k-means on the rows of V and construct the indicator matrix. A more elegant approach would be to use a randomized rounding scheme [6], which also produces a deterministic Y?h , but provides some guarantees about how well Y?h Y?h> approximates M h . Note however that V is an approximation of Y h where the row vectors have been re-centered on the origin in a rotated coordinate system. Therefore, a simpler approach is just to map the rows of V back onto the simplex by translating the mean back to the simplex center and rotation the coordinates back into the positive orthant. 6 Experimental Results An important question to ask is whether the relaxed, convex objective (8) is in fact over-relaxed, and whether important structure in the original marginal likelihood objective has been lost as a result. To investigate this question, we conducted a set of experiments to evaluate our convex approach compared to the standard Viterbi (i.e. joint) EM algorithm, and to supervised training on fully observed data. Our experiments are conducted using both synthetic Bayesian networks and real networks, while measuring the trained models by their logloss produced on the fully observed training data and testing data. All the results reported in this paper are averages over 10 times repeats. The test size for the experiments is 1000, the training size is 100 without specification. For a fair comparison, we used 10 random restarts for Viterbi EM to help avoid poor local optima. For the synthetic experiments, we constructed three Bayesian networks: (1) Bayesian network 1 (Synth1) is a three layer network with 9 variables, where the two nodes in the middle layer are picked as hidden variables; (2) Bayesian network 2 (Synth2) is a network with 6 variables and 6 edges, where a node with 2 parents and 2 children is picked as hidden variable; (3) Bayesian network 3 (Synth3) is a Naive Bayes model with 7 variables, where the parent node is selected as the hidden variable. The parameters are generated in a discriminative way to produce models with apparent causal relations between the connected nodes. We performed experiments on these three synthetic networks using varying training sizes: 50, 100 and 150. Due to space limits, we only report the results for training size 100 in Table 1. Besides these three synthetic Bayesian networks, we also ran experiments using real UCI data, where we used Naive Bayes as the model structure, and set the class variables to be hidden. The middle two rows of the Table 1 show the results on two UCI data sets. Here we can see that the convex relaxation was successful at preserving structure in the EM objective, and in fact, generally performed much better than the Viterbi EM algorithm, particularly in the case (Synth1) where there was two hidden variables. Not surprisingly, supervised training on the complete data performed better than the EM methods, but generally demonstrated a larger gap between training and test losses than the EM methods. Similar results were obtained for both larger and smaller training sample sizes. For the UCI experiments, the results are very similar to the synthetic networks, showing good results again for the convex EM relaxation. Finally, we conducted additional experiments on three real world Bayesian networks: Alarm, Cancer and Asian (downloaded from http://www.norsys.com/networklibrary.html). We picked one well connected node from each model to serve as the hidden variable, and generated data by sampling from the models. Table 1 shows the experimental results for these three Bayesian networks. Here we can see that the convex EM relaxation performed well on the Cancer and Alarm networks. Since we only picked one hidden variable from the 37 variables in Alarm, it is understandable that any potential advantage for the convex approach might not be large. Nevertheless, a slight advantage is still detected here. Much weaker results are obtained on the Asian network however. We are still investigating what aspects of the problem are responsible for the poorer approximation in this case. 7 Conclusion We have presented a new convex relaxation of EM that obtains generally effective results in simple experimental comparisons to a standard joint EM algorithm (Viterbi EM), on both synthetic and real problems. This new approach was facilitated by a novel reformulation of log-linear regression that refers only to equivalence relation information on the data, and thereby allows us to avoid the symmetry breaking problem that blocks naive convexification strategies from working. One shortcoming of the proposed technique however is that it cannot handle continuous hidden variables; this remains a direction for future research. In one experiment, weaker approximation quality was obtained, and this too is the subject of further investigation. References [1] J. Borwein and A. Lewis. Convex Analysis and Nonlinear Optimization. Springer, 2000. [2] S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization. Cambridge U. Press, 2004. [3] S. Chen. Models for grapheme-to-phoneme conversion. In Eurospeech, 2003. [4] T. De Bie and N. Cristianini. Fast SDP relaxations of graph cut clustering, transduction, and other combinatorial problems. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 7, 2006. [5] A. Dempster, N. Laird, and D. Rubin. Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, 39(1):1?38, 1977. [6] M. Goemans and D. Williamson. Improved approximation algorithms for maximum cut and satisfiability problems using semidefinite programming. JACM, 42(6):1115?1145, 1995. [7] S. Goldwater and M. Johnson. Bias in learning syllable structure. In Proc. CONLL, 2005. [8] D. Klein and C. Manning. Corpus-based induction of syntactic structure: Models of dependency and constituency. In Proceedings ACL, 2004. [9] B. Merialdo. Tagging text with a probabilistic model. Comput. Ling., 20(2):155?171, 1994. [10] R. Neal and G. Hinton. A view of the em algorithm that justifies incremental, sparse, and other variants. In M. Jordan, editor, Learning in Graphical Models. Kluwer, 1998. [11] J. Nocedal and S. Wright. Numerical Optimization. Springer, 1999. [12] R. Salakhutdinov, S. Roweis, and Z. Ghahramani. Optimization with EM and expectationconjugate-gradient. In Proceedings ICML, 2003. [13] N. Srebro, G. Shakhnarovich, and S. Roweis. An investigation of computational and informational limits in gaussian mixture clustering. In Proceedings ICML, 2006. [14] M. Wainwright and M. Jordan. Graphical models, exponential families, and variational inference. Technical Report TR-649, UC Berkeley, Dept. Statistics, 2003. [15] L. Xu, J. Neufeld, B. Larson, and D. Schuurmans. Max margin clustering. In NIPS 17, 2004. [16] L. Xu, D. Wilkinson, F. Southey, and D. Schuurmans. Discriminative unsupervised learning of structured predictors. In Proceedings ICML, 2006.
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Incremental Natural Actor-Critic Algorithms Shalabh Bhatnagar Department of Computer Science & Automation, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India Richard S. Sutton, Mohammad Ghavamzadeh, Mark Lee Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada Abstract We present four new reinforcement learning algorithms based on actor-critic and natural-gradient ideas, and provide their convergence proofs. Actor-critic reinforcement learning methods are online approximations to policy iteration in which the value-function parameters are estimated using temporal difference learning and the policy parameters are updated by stochastic gradient descent. Methods based on policy gradients in this way are of special interest because of their compatibility with function approximation methods, which are needed to handle large or infinite state spaces. The use of temporal difference learning in this way is of interest because in many applications it dramatically reduces the variance of the gradient estimates. The use of the natural gradient is of interest because it can produce better conditioned parameterizations and has been shown to further reduce variance in some cases. Our results extend prior two-timescale convergence results for actor-critic methods by Konda and Tsitsiklis by using temporal difference learning in the actor and by incorporating natural gradients, and they extend prior empirical studies of natural actor-critic methods by Peters, Vijayakumar and Schaal by providing the first convergence proofs and the first fully incremental algorithms. 1 Introduction Actor-critic (AC) algorithms are based on the simultaneous online estimation of the parameters of two structures, called the actor and the critic. The actor corresponds to a conventional actionselection policy, mapping states to actions in a probabilistic manner. The critic corresponds to a conventional value function, mapping states to expected cumulative future reward. Thus, the critic addresses a problem of prediction, whereas the actor is concerned with control. These problems are separable, but are solved simultaneously to find an optimal policy, as in policy iteration. A variety of methods can be used to solve the prediction problem, but the ones that have proved most effective in large applications are those based on some form of temporal difference (TD) learning (Sutton, 1988) in which estimates are updated on the basis of other estimates. Such bootstrapping methods can be viewed as a way of accelerating learning by trading bias for variance. Actor-critic methods were among the earliest to be investigated in reinforcement learning (Barto et al., 1983; Sutton, 1984). They were largely supplanted in the 1990?s by methods that estimate action-value functions and use them directly to select actions without an explicit policy structure. This approach was appealing because of its simplicity, but when combined with function approximation was found to have theoretical difficulties including in some cases a failure to converge. These problems led to renewed interest in methods with an explicit representation of the policy, which came to be known as policy gradient methods (Marbach, 1998; Sutton et al., 2000; Konda & Tsitsiklis, 2000; Baxter & Bartlett, 2001). Policy gradient methods without bootstrapping can be easily proved convergent, but converge slowly because of the high variance of their gradient estimates. Combining them with bootstrapping is a promising avenue toward a more effective method. Another approach to speeding up policy gradient algorithms was proposed by Kakade (2002) and then refined and extended by Bagnell and Schneider (2003) and by Peters et al. (2003). The idea 1 was to replace the policy gradient with the so-called natural policy gradient. This was motivated by the intuition that a change in the policy parameterization should not influence the result of the policy update. In terms of the policy update rule, the move to the natural gradient amounts to linearly transforming the gradient using the inverse Fisher information matrix of the policy. In this paper, we introduce four new AC algorithms, three of which incorporate natural gradients. All the algorithms are for the average reward setting and use function approximation in the state-value function. For all four methods we prove convergence of the parameters of the policy and state-value function to a local maximum of a performance function that corresponds to the average reward plus a measure of the TD error inherent in the function approximation. Due to space limitations, we do not present the convergence analysis of our algorithms here; it can be found, along with some empirical results using our algorithms, in the extended version of this paper (Bhatnagar et al., 2007). Our results extend prior AC methods, especially those of Konda and Tsitsiklis (2000) and of Peters et al. (2005). We discuss these relationships in detail in Section 6. Our analysis does not cover the use of eligibility traces but we believe the extension to that case would be straightforward. 2 The Policy Gradient Framework We consider the standard reinforcement learning framework (e.g., see Sutton & Barto, 1998), in which a learning agent interacts with a stochastic environment and this interaction is modeled as a discrete-time Markov decision process. The state, action, and reward at each time t ? {0, 1, 2, . . .} are denoted st ? S, at ? A, and rt ? R respectively. We assume the reward is random, realvalued, and uniformly bounded. The environment?s dynamics are characterized by state-transition probabilities p(s0 |s, a) = Pr(st+1 = s0 |st = s, at = a), and single-stage expected rewards r(s, a) = E[rt+1 |st = s, at = a], ?s, s0 ? S, ?a ? A. The agent selects an action at each time t using a randomized stationary policy ?(a|s) = Pr(at = a|st = s). We assume (B1) The Markov chain induced by any policy is irreducible and aperiodic. The long-term average reward per step under policy ? is defined as "T ?1 # X X X 1 J(?) = lim E rt+1 |? = d? (s) ?(a|s)r(s, a), T ?? T t=0 s?S a?A where d? (s) is the stationary distribution of state s under policy ?. The limit here is welldefined under (B1). Our aim is to find a policy ? ? that maximizes the average reward, i.e., ? ? = arg max? J(?). In the average reward formulation, a policy ? is assessed according to the expected differential reward associated with states s or state?action pairs (s, a). For all states s ? S and actions a ? A, the differential action-value function and the differential state-value function under policy ? are defined as1 ? X X Q? (s, a) = E[rt+1 ? J(?)|s0 = s, a0 = a, ?] , V ? (s) = ?(a|s)Q? (s, a). (1) t=0 a?A In policy gradient methods, we define a class of parameterized stochastic policies {?(?|s; ?), s ? S, ? ? ?}, estimate the gradient of the average reward with respect to the policy parameters ? from the observed states, actions, and rewards, and then improve the policy by adjusting its parameters in the direction of the gradient. Since in this setting a policy ? is represented by its parameters ?, policy dependent functions such as J(?), d? (?), V ? (?), and Q? (?, ?) can be written as J(?), d(?; ?), V (?; ?), and Q(?, ?; ?), respectively. We assume (B2) For any state?action pair (s, a), policy ?(a|s; ?) is continuously differentiable in the parameters ?. Previous works (Marbach, 1998; Sutton et al., 2000; Baxter & Bartlett, 2001) have shown that the gradient of the average reward for parameterized policies that satisfy (B1) and (B2) is given by 2 X X ?J(?) = d? (s) ??(a|s)Q? (s, a). (2) s?S a?A 1 From now on in the paper, we use the terms state-value function and action-value function instead of differential state-value function and differential action-value function. 2 Throughout the paper, we use notation ? to denote ?? ? the gradient w.r.t. the policy parameters. 2 Observe that if b(s) is any given function of s (also called a baseline), then X ? d (s) X ??(a|s)b(s) = a?A s?S X ? d (s)b(s)? s?S X ?(a|s) a?A ! = X d? (s)b(s)?(1) = 0, s?S and thus, for any baseline b(s), the gradient of the average reward can be written as X X ?J(?) = d? (s) ??(a|s)(Q? (s, a) ? b(s)). s?S (3) a?A The baseline can be chosen such in a way that the variance of the gradient estimates is minimized (Greensmith et al., 2004). ? The natural gradient, denoted ?J(?), can be calculated by linearly transforming the regular gra? dient, using the inverse Fisher information matrix of the policy: ?J(?) = G?1 (?)?J(?). The Fisher information matrix G(?) is positive definite and symmetric, and is given by (4) G(?) = Es?d? ,a?? [? log ?(a|s)? log ?(a|s)> ]. 3 Policy Gradient with Function Approximation Now consider the case in which the action-value function for a fixed policy ?, Q ? , is approximated by a learned function approximator. If the approximation is sufficiently good, we might hope to use it in place of Q? in Eqs. 2 and 3, and still point roughly in the direction of the true gradient. ? ?w with parameters w is compatible, i.e., Sutton et al. (2000) showed that if the approximation Q ? ?w (s, a) = ? log ?(a|s), and minimizes the mean squared error ?w Q X X ? ? (s, a)]2 E ? (w) = d? (s) ?(a|s)[Q? (s, a) ? Q (5) w s?S a?A ? ?w? in Eqs. 2 and 3. Thus, we work with for parameter value w ? , then we can replace Q? with Q ? > ? a linear approximation Qw (s, a) = w ?(s, a), in which the ?(s, a)?s are compatible features defined according to ?(s, a) = ? log ?(a|s). Note that compatible features are well defined under (B2). The Fisher information matrix of Eq. 4 can be written using the compatible features as (6) G(?) = Es?d? ,a?? [?(s, a)?(s, a)> ]. Suppose E (w) denotes the mean squared error X X E ? (w) = d? (s) ?(a|s)[Q? (s, a) ? w > ?(s, a) ? b(s)]2 ? s?S (7) a?A of our compatible linear parameterized approximation w > ?(s, a) and an arbitrary baseline b(s). Let w? = arg minw E ? (w) denote the optimal parameter. Lemma 1 shows that the value of w ? does not depend on the given baseline b(s); as a result the mean squared error problems of Eqs. 5 and 7 have the same solutions. Lemma 2 shows that if the parameter is set to be equal to w ? , then the resulting mean squared error E ? (w? ) (now treated as a function of the baseline b(s)) is further minimized when b(s) = V ? (s). In other words, the variance in the action-value-function estimator is minimized if the baseline is chosen to be the state-value function itself.3 Lemma 1 The optimum weight parameter w ? for any given ? (policy ?) satisfies4 w? = G?1 (?)Es?d? ,a?? [Q? (s, a)?(s, a)]. Proof Note that ?w E ? (w) = ?2 X s?S d? (s) X ?(a|s)[Q? (s, a) ? w > ?(s, a) ? b(s)]?(s, a). (8) a?A Equating the above to zero, one obtains X s?S d? (s) X a?A ?(a|s)?(s, a)?(s, a)> w? = X d? (s) s?S X a?A ?(a|s)Q? (s, a)?(s, a)? X s?S d? (s) X ?(a|s)b(s)?(s, a). a?A 3 It is important to note that Lemma 2 is not about the minimum variance baseline for gradient estimation. It is about the minimum variance baseline of the action-value-function estimator. 4 This lemma is similar to Kakade?s (2002) Theorem 1. 3 The last term on the right-hand side equals zero because a?A ?(a|s)?(s, a) = a?A ??(a|s) = 0 for any state s. Now, from Eq. 8, the Hessian ?2w E ? (w) evaluated at w ? can be seen to be 2G(?). The claim follows because G(?) is positive definite for any ?.  P P Next, given the optimum weight parameter w ? , we obtain the minimum variance baseline in the action-value-function estimator corresponding to policy ?. Thus we consider now E ? (w? ) as a function of the baseline b, and obtain b? = arg minb E ? (w? ). Lemma 2 For any given policy ?, the minimum variance baseline b? (s) in the action-valuefunction estimator corresponds to the state-value function V ? (s). P ? ?> ?(s, a) ? b(s)]2 . Proof For any P s ? S, let E ?,s (w? ) = a?A ?(a|s)[Q (s, a) ? w ? ?,s ? ? ? Then E (w ) = s?S d (s)E (w ). Note that by (B1), the Markov chain corresponding to any policy ? is positive recurrent because the number of states is finite. Hence, d? (s) > 0 for all s ? S. Thus, one needs to find the baseline b(s) that minimizes E ?,s (w? ) for each s ? S. For any s ? S, X ?E ?,s (w? ) = ?2 ?(a|s)[Q? (s, a) ? w ?> ?(s, a) ? b(s)]. ?b(s) a?A Equating the above to zero, we obtain X X ?(a|s)w ?> ?(s, a). ?(a|s)Q? (s, a) ? b? (s) = a?A a?A P The rightmost term equals zero because a?A ?(a|s)?(s, a) = 0. Hence b? (s) = a?A ?(a|s) Q? (s, a) = V ? (s). The second derivative of E ?,s (w? ) w.r.t. b(s) equals 2. The claim follows.  P From Lemmas 1 and 2, w ?> ?(s, a) is a least-squared optimal parametric representation for the advantage function A? (s, a) = Q? (s, a) ? V ?P (s) as well as for the action-value function > Q? (s, a). However, because Ea?? [w> ?(s, a)] = a?A ?(a|s)w ?(s, a) = 0, ?s ? S, it is > better to think of w ?(s, a) as an approximation of the advantage function rather than of the action-value function. The TD error ?t is a random quantity that is defined according to ?t = rt+1 ?J?t+1 +V? (st+1 )?V? (st ), where V? and J? are consistent estimates of the state-value function and the average reward, respectively. Thus, these estimates satisfy E[V? (st )|st , ?] = V ? (st ) and E[J?t+1 |st , ?] = J(?), for any t ? 0. The next lemma shows that ?t is a consistent estimate of the advantage function A? . Lemma 3 Under given policy ?, we have E[?t |st , at , ?] = A? (st , at ). Proof Note that E[?t |st , at , ?] = E[rt+1 ?J?t+1 +V? (st+1 )?V? (st )|st , at , ?] = r(st , at )?J(?)+E[V? (st+1 )|st , at , ?]?V ? (st ). Now E[V? (st+1 )|st , at , ?] = E[E[V? (st+1 )|st+1 , ?]|st , at , ?] = E[V ? (st+1 )|st , at ] = X p(st+1 |st , at )V ? (st+1 ). st+1 ?S Also r(st , at ) ? J(?) + P p(st+1 |st , at )V (st+1 ) = Q (st , at ). The claim follows. ? st+1 ?S ?  By settingPthe baselinePb(s) equal to the value function V ? (s), Eq. 3 can be written as ?J(?) = s?S d? (s) a?A ?(a|s)?(s, a)A? (s, a). From Lemma 3, ?t is a consistent estimate d of the advantage function A? (s, a). Thus, ?J(?) = ?t ?(st , at ) is a consistent estimate of ?J(?). ? V? , of the average reward and the value funcHowever, calculating ?t requires having estimates, J, tion. While an average reward estimate is simple enough to obtain given the single-stage reward function, the same is not necessarily true for the value function. We use function approximation for the value function as well. Suppose f (s) is a feature vector for state s. One may then approximate V ? (s) with v > f (s), where v is a parameter vector that can be tuned (for a fixed policy ?) using a > TD algorithm. In our algorithms, we use ?t = rt+1 ? J?t+1 + v > t f (st+1 ) ? v t f (st ) as an estimate for the TD error, where v t corresponds to the value function parameter at time t. 4 P P Let V? ? (s) = a?A ?(a|s)[r(s, a) ? J(?) + s0 ?S p(s0 |s, a)v ?> f (s0 )], where v ?> f (s0 ) is an estimate of the value function V ? (s0 ) that is obtained upon convergence viz., limt?? v t = v ? with probability one. Also, let ?t? = rt+1 ? J?t+1 + v ?> f (st+1 ) ? v ?> f (st ), where ?t? corresponds to a stationary estimate of the TD error with function approximation under policy ?. P Lemma 4 E[?t? ?(st , at )|?] = ?J(?) + s?S d? (s)[?V? ? (s) ? ?v ?> f (s)]. Proof of this lemma can be found in the extended version of this paper (Bhatnagar et al., 2007). Note that E[?t ?(st , at )|?] = ?J(?), provided ?t is defined as ?t = rt+1 ? J?t+1 + V? (st+1 ) ? V? (st ) (as was considered in Lemma 3). For the case with function approximation that we study, from P Lemma 4, the quantity s?S d? (s)[?V? ? (s) ? ?v ?> f (s)] may be viewed as the error or bias in the estimate of the gradient of average reward that results from the use of function approximation. 4 Actor-Critic Algorithms We present four new AC algorithms in this section. These algorithms are in the general form shown in Table 1. They update the policy parameters along the direction of the average-reward gradient. While estimates of the regular gradient are used for this purpose in Algorithm 1, natural gradient estimates are used in Algorithms 2?4. While critic updates in our algorithms can be easily extended to the case of TD(?), ? > 0, we restrict our attention to the case when ? = 0. In addition to assumptions (B1) and (B2), we make the following assumption: (B3) The step-size schedules for the critic {?t } and the actor {?t } satisfy X t ?t = X ?t = ? , t X ?t2 , t X t ?t2 < ? , ?t = 0. t?? ?t lim (9) As a consequence of Eq. 9, ?t ? 0 faster than ?t . Hence the critic has uniformly higher increments than the actor beyond some t0 , and thus it converges faster than the actor. 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: Table 1: A Template for Incremental AC Algorithms. Input: ? Randomized parameterized policy ?(?|?; ?), ? Value function feature vector f (s). Initialization: ? Policy parameters ? = ? 0 , ? Value function weight vector v = v 0 , ? Step sizes ? = ?0 , ? = ?0 , ? = c?0 , ? Initial state s0 . for t = 0, 1, 2, . . . do Execution: ? Draw action at ? ?(at |st ; ? t ), ? Observe next state st+1 ? p(st+1 |st , at ), ? Observe reward rt+1 . Average Reward Update: J?t+1 = (1 ? ?t )J?t + ?t rt+1 > TD error: ?t = rt+1 ? J?t+1 + v > t f (st+1 ) ? v t f (st ) Critic Update: algorithm specific (see the text) Actor Update: algorithm specific (see the text) endfor return Policy and value-function parameters ?, v We now present the critic and the actor updates of our four AC algorithms. Algorithm 1 (Regular-Gradient AC): Critic Update: Actor Update: v t+1 = v t + ?t ?t f (st ), ? t+1 = ? t + ?t ?t ?(st , at ). 5 This is the only AC algorithm presented in the paper that is based on the regular gradient estimate. This algorithm stores two parameter vectors ? and v. Its per time-step computational cost is linear in the number of policy and value-function parameters. ?1 ? The next algorithm is based on the natural-gradient estimate ?J(? (? t )?t ?(st , at ) in t) = G place of the regular-gradient estimate in Algorithm 1. We derive a procedure for recursively esti?1 mating G?1 (?) and show in Lemma 5 that our estimate G?1 (?) as t ? ? with t converges to G probability one. This is required for proving convergence of this algorithm. The Fisher information Pt > 1 matrix can be estimated in an online manner as Gt+1 = t+1 ?(s , a )? (si , ai ). One may i i i=0 > 1 1 obtain recursively Gt+1 = (1 ? t+1 )Gt + t+1 ?(st , at )? (st , at ), or more generally (10) Gt+1 = (1 ? ?t )Gt + ?t ?(st , at )? > (st , at ). Using the Sherman-Morrison matrix inversion lemma, one obtains   ?1 > 1 G?1 ?1 t ?(st , at )(Gt ?(st , at )) G?1 = G ? ? t t t+1 1 ? ?t 1 ? ?t + ?t ?(st , at )> G?1 t ?(st , at ) (11) For our Alg. 2 and 4, we require the following additional assumption for the convergence analysis: ?1 (B4) The iterates Gt and G?1 t satisfy supt,?,s,a k Gt k and supt,?,s,a k Gt k< ?. ? G?1 (?) as t ? ? with in Eq. 11 satisfies G?1 Lemma 5 For any given parameter ?, G?1 t t probability one. Proof It is easy to see from Eq. 10 that Gt ? G(?) as t ? ? with probability one, for any given ? held fixed. For a fixed ?, ?1 ?1 (?)(G(?) ? Gt )G?1 (?) k=k G?1 (?)(G(?)G?1 k G?1 t k? t ? I) k=k G t ?G sup k G?1 (?) k sup k G?1 t k ? k G(?) ? Gt k? 0 ? as t?? t,?,s,a by assumption (B4). The claim follows.  Our second algorithm stores a matrix G?1 and two parameter vectors ? and v. Its per timestep computational cost is linear in the number of value-function parameters and quadratic in the number of policy parameters. Algorithm 2 (Natural-Gradient AC with Fisher Information Matrix): Critic Update: v t+1 = v t + ?t ?t f (st ), Actor Update: ? t+1 = ? t + ?t G?1 t+1 ?t ?(st , at ), with the estimate of the inverse Fisher information matrix updated according to Eq. 11. We let ?1 G?1 0 = kI, where k is a positive constant. Thus G0 and G0 are positive definite and symmetric matrices. From Eq. 10, Gt , t > 0 can be seen to be positive definite and symmetric because these are convex combinations of positive definite and symmetric matrices. Hence, G ?1 t , t > 0, are positive definite and symmetric as well. As mentioned in Section 3, it is better to think of the compatible approximation w > ?(s, a) as an approximation of the advantage function rather than of the action-value function. In our next algorithm we tune the parameters w in such a way as to minimize an estimate of the least-squared error E ? (w) = Es?d? ,a?? [(w> ?(s, a) ? A? (s, a))2 ]. The gradient of E ? (w) is thus ?w E ? (w) = 2Es?d? ,a?? [(w> ?(s, a) ? A? (s, a))?(s, a)], which can be estimated as > ? \ ? w E (w) = 2[?(st , at )?(st , at ) w ? ?t ?(st , at )]. Hence, we update advantage parameters w along with value-function parameters v in the critic update of this algorithm. As with Peters et al. ? (2005), we use the natural gradient estimate ?J(? t ) = w t+1 in the actor update of Alg. 3. This algorithm stores three parameter vectors, v, w, and ?. Its per time-step computational cost is linear in the number of value-function parameters and quadratic in the number of policy parameters. 6 Algorithm 3 (Natural-Gradient AC with Advantage Parameters): Critic Update: v t+1 = v t + ?t ?t f (st ), Actor Update: wt+1 = [I ? ?t ?(st , at )?(st , at )> ]wt + ?t ?t ?(st , at ), ? t+1 = ? t + ?t wt+1 . Although an estimate of G?1 (?) is not explicitly computed and used in Algorithm 3, the convergence analysis of this algorithm shows that the overall scheme still moves in the direction of the natural gradient of average reward. In Algorithm 4, however, we explicitly estimate G ?1 (?) (as in Algorithm 2), and use it in the critic update for w. The overall scheme is again seen ? w E ? (w) = to follow the direction of the natural gradient of average reward. Here, we let ? ?1 > 2Gt [?(st , at )?(st , at ) w ? ?t ?(st , at )] be the estimate of the natural gradient of the leastsquared error E ? (w). This also simplifies the critic update for w. Algorithm 4 stores a matrix G?1 and three parameter vectors, v, w, and ?. Its per time-step computational cost is linear in the number of value-function parameters and quadratic in the number of policy parameters. Algorithm 4 (Natural-Gradient AC with Advantage Parameters and Fisher Information Matrix): Critic Update: v t+1 = v t + ?t ?t f (st ), wt+1 = (1 ? ?t )wt + ?t G?1 t+1 ?t ?(st , at ), Actor Update: ? t+1 = ? t + ?t wt+1 , where the estimate of the inverse Fisher information matrix is updated according to Eq. 11. 5 Convergence of Our Actor-Critic Algorithms Since our algorithms are gradient-based, one cannot expect to prove convergence to a globally optimal policy. The best that one could hope for is convergence to a local maximum of J(?). However, because the critic will generally converge to an approximation of the desired projection of the value function (defined by the value function features f ) in these algorithms, the corresponding convergence results are necessarily weaker, as indicated by the following theorem. For the parameter iterations in Algorithms 1-4,5 we have (J?t , v t , ? t ) ? {(J(? ? ), v ? , ? ? )|? ? ? Z} as t ? ? with probability one, where the set Z corresponds to the set of local maxima of a performance function whose gradient is E[?t? ?(st , at )|?] (cf. Lemma 4). Theorem ?1 For the proof of this theorem, please refer to Section 6 (Convergence Analysis) of the extended version of this paper (Bhatnagar et al., 2007). This theorem indicates that the policy and state-value-function parameters converge to a local maximum of a performance function that corresponds to the average reward plus a measure of the TD error inherent in the function approximation. 6 Relation to Previous Algorithms Actor-Critic Algorithm of Konda and Tsitsiklis (2000): Unlike our Alg. 2?4, their algorithm does not use estimates of the natural gradient in its actor?s update. Their algorithm is similar to our Alg. 1, but with some key differences. 1) Konda?s algorithm uses the Markov process of state? action pairs, and thus its critic update is based on an action-value function. Alg. 1 uses the state process, and therefore its critic update is based on a state-value function. 2) Whereas Alg. 1 uses a TD error in both critic and actor recursions, Konda?s algorithm uses a TD error only in its critic update. The actor recursion in Konda?s algorithm uses an action-value estimate instead. Because the TD error is a consistent estimate of the advantage function (Lemma 3), the actor recursion in Alg. 1 uses estimates of advantages instead of action-values, which may result in lower variances. 3) The convergence analysis of Konda?s algorithm is based on the martingale approach and aims at bounding error terms and directly showing convergence; convergence to a local optimum is shown when a TD(1) critic is used. For the case where ? < 1, they show that given an  > 0, there exists ? close enough to one such that when a TD(?) critic is used, one gets lim inf t |?J(? t )| <  with 5 The proof of this theorem requires another assumption viz., (A3) in the extended version of this paper (Bhatnagar et al., 2007), in addition to (B1)-(B3) (resp. (B1)-(B4)) for Algorithm 1 and 3 (resp. for Algorithm 2 and 4). This was not included in this paper due to space limitations. 7 probability one. Unlike Konda and Tsitsiklis, we primarily use the ordinary differential equation (ODE) based approach for our convergence analysis. Though we use martingale arguments in our analysis, these are restricted to showing that the noise terms asymptotically diminish; the resulting scheme can be viewed as an Euler-discretization of the associated ODE. Natural Actor-Critic Algorithm of Peters et al. (2005): Our Algorithms 2?4 extend their algorithm by being fully incremental and in that we provide convergence proofs. Peters?s algorithm uses a least-squares TD method in its critic?s update, whereas all our algorithms are fully incremental. It is not clear how to satisfactorily incorporate least-squares TD methods in a context in which the policy is changing, and our proof techniques do not immediately extend to this case. 7 Conclusions and Future Work We have introduced and analyzed four AC algorithms utilizing both linear function approximation and bootstrapping, a combination which seems essential to large-scale applications of reinforcement learning. All of the algorithms are based on existing ideas such as TD-learning, natural policy gradients, and two-timescale stochastic approximation, but combined in new ways. The main contribution of this paper is proving convergence of the algorithms to a local maximum in the space of policy and value-function parameters. Our Alg. 2?4 are explorations of the use of natural gradients within an AC architecture. The way we use natural gradients is distinctive in that it is totally incremental: the policy is changed on every time step, yet the gradient computation is never reset as it is in the algorithm of Peters et al. (2005). Alg. 3 is perhaps the most interesting of the three natural-gradient algorithms. It never explicitly stores an estimate of the inverse Fisher information matrix and, as a result, it requires less computation. In empirical experiments using our algorithms (not reported here) we observed that it is easier to find good parameter settings for Alg. 3 than it is for the other natural-gradient algorithms and, perhaps because of this, it converged more rapidly than the others and than Konda?s algorithm. All our algorithms performed better than Konda?s algorithm. There are a number of ways in which our results are limited and suggest future work. 1) It is important to characterize the quality of the converged solutions, either by bounding the performance loss due to bootstrapping and approximation error, or through a thorough empirical study. 2) The algorithms can be extended to incorporate eligibility traces and least-squares methods. As discussed earlier, the former seems straightforward whereas the latter requires more fundamental extensions. 3) Application of the algorithms to real-world problems is needed to assess their ultimate utility. References Bagnell, J., & Schneider, J. (2003). Covariant policy search. Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Barto, A. G., Sutton, R. S., & Anderson, C. (1983). Neuron-like elements that can solve difficult learning control problems. IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 13, 835?846. Baxter, J., & Bartlett, P. (2001). Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. JAIR, 15, 319?350. Bhatnagar, S., Sutton, R. S., Ghavamzadeh, M., & Lee, M. (2007). Natural actor-critic algorithms. Submitted to Automatica. Greensmith, E., Bartlett, P., & Baxter, J. (2004). Variance reduction techniques for gradient estimates in reinforcement learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5, 1471?1530. Kakade, S. (2002). A natural policy gradient. Proceedings of NIPS 14. Konda, V., & Tsitsiklis, J. (2000). Actor-critic algorithms. Proceedings of NIPS 12 (pp. 1008?1014). Marbach, P. (1998). Simulated-based methods for Markov decision processes. Doctoral dissertation, MIT. Peters, J., Vijayakumar, S., & Schaal, S. (2003). Reinforcement learning for humanoid robotics. Proceedings of the Third IEEE-RAS International Conference on Humanoid Robots. Peters, J., Vijayakumar, S., & Schaal, S. (2005). Natural actor-critic. Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning (pp. 280?291). Sutton, R. S. (1984). Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning. Doctoral dissertation, UMass Amherst. Sutton, R. S. (1988). Learning to predict by the methods of temporal differences. Machine Learning, 3, 9?44. Sutton, R. S., & Barto, A. G. (1998). Reinforcement learning: An introduction. MIT Press. Sutton, R. S., McAllester, D., Singh, S., & Mansour, Y. (2000). Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. Proceedings of NIPS 12 (pp. 1057?1063). 8
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The Noisy-Logical Distribution and its Application to Causal Inference Alan Yuille Department of Statistics University of California at Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90095 [email protected] Hongjing Lu Department of Psychology University of California at Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA 90095 [email protected] Abstract We describe a novel noisy-logical distribution for representing the distribution of a binary output variable conditioned on multiple binary input variables. The distribution is represented in terms of noisy-or?s and noisy-and-not?s of causal features which are conjunctions of the binary inputs. The standard noisy-or and noisy-andnot models, used in causal reasoning and artificial intelligence, are special cases of the noisy-logical distribution. We prove that the noisy-logical distribution is complete in the sense that it can represent all conditional distributions provided a sufficient number of causal factors are used. We illustrate the noisy-logical distribution by showing that it can account for new experimental findings on how humans perform causal reasoning in complex contexts. We speculate on the use of the noisy-logical distribution for causal reasoning and artificial intelligence. 1 Introduction The noisy-or and noisy-and-not conditional probability distributions are frequently studied in cognitive science for modeling causal reasoning [1], [2],[3] and are also used as probabilistic models for artificial intelligence [4]. It has been shown, for example, that human judgments of the power of causal cues in experiments involving two cues [1] can be interpreted in terms of maximum likelihood estimation and model selection using these types of models [3]. But the noisy-or and noisy-and-not distributions are limited in the sense that they can only represent a restricted set of all possible conditional distributions. This restriction is sometimes an advantage because there may not be sufficient data to determine the full conditional distribution. Nevertheless it would be better to have a representation that can expand to represent the full conditional distribution, if sufficient data is available, but can be reduced to simpler forms (e.g. standard noisy-or) if there is only limited data. This motivates us to define the noisy-logical distribution. This is defined in terms of noisy-or?s and noisy-and-not?s of causal features which are conjunctions of the basic input variables (inspired by the use of conjunctive features in [2] and the extensions in [5]). By restricting the choice of causal features we can obtain the standard noisy-or and noisy-and-not models. We prove that the noisy-logical distribution is complete in the sense that it can represent any conditional distribution provided we use all the causal features. Overall, it gives a distribution whose complexity can be adjusted by restricting the number of causal features. To illustrate the noisy-logical distribution we apply it to modeling some recent human experiments on causal reasoning in complex environments [6]. We show that noisy-logical distributions involving causal factors are able to account for human performance. By contrast, an alternative linear model gives predictions which are the opposite of the observed trends in human causal judgments. Section (2) presents the noisy-logical distribution for the case with two input causes (the case commonly studied in causal reasoning). In section (3) we specify the full noisy-logical distribution and 1 we prove its completeness in section (4). Section (5) illustrates the noisy-logical distribution by showing that it accounts for recent experimental findings in causal reasoning. 2 The Case with N = 2 causes In this section we study the simple case when the binary output effect E depends only on two binaryvalued causes C1 , C2 . This covers most of the work reported in the cognitive science literature [1],[3]. In this case, the probability distribution is specified by the four numbers P (E = 1|C1 , C2 ), for C1 ? {0, 1}, C2 ? {0, 1}. To define the noisy-logical distribution over two variables P (E = 1|C1 , C2 ), we introduce three concepts. Firstly, we define four binary-valued causal features ?0 (.), ?1 (.), ?2 (.), ?3 (.) which are ~ = (C1 , C2 ). They are defined by ?0 (C) ~ = 1, ?1 (C) ~ = C1 , ?2 (C) ~ = functions of the input state C ~ C2 , ?3 (C) = C1 ?C2 , where ? denotes logical-and operation(i.e. C1 ?C2 = 1 if C1 = C2 = 1 and ~ is the conjunction of C1 and C2 . Secondly, we introduce binaryC1 ? C2 = 0 otherwise). ?3 (C) valued hidden states E0 , E1 , E2 , E3 which are caused by the corresponding features ?0 , ?1 , ?2 , ?3 . We define P (Ei = 1|?i ; ?i ) = ?i ?i with ?i ? [0, 1], for i = 1, ..., 4 with ? ~ = (?1 , ?2 , ?3 , ?4 ). Thirdly, we define the output effect E to be a logical combination of the states E0 , E1 , E2 , E3 which we write in form ?E,f (E0 ,E1 ,E2 ,E3 ) , where f (., ., ., .) is a logic function which is formed by a combination of three logic operations AN D, OR, N OT . This induces the noisy-logical distribution P Q3 ~ ? ~ ?i ). Pnl (E|C; ~ ) = E0 ,...,E3 ?E,f (E0 ,E1 ,E2 ,E3 ) i=0 P (Ei |?i (C); The noisy-logical distribution is characterized by the parameters ?0 , ..., ?3 and the choice of the logic function f (., ., ., .). We can represent the distribution by a circuit diagram where the output E is a logical function of the hidden states E0 , ..., E3 and each state is caused probabilistically by the corresponding causal features ?0 , ..., ?3 , as shown in Figure (1). Figure 1: Circuit diagram in the case with N = 2 causes. The noisy-logical distribution includes the commonly known distributions, noisy-or and noisy-andnot, as special cases. To obtain the noisy-or, we set E = E1 ? E2 (i.e. E1 ? E2 = 0 if E1 = E2 = 0 and E1 ? E2 = 1 otherwise). A simple calculation shows that the noisy-logical distribution reduces to the noisy-or Pnor (E|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 ) [4], [1]: X ~ ?1 )P (E2 |?2 (C); ~ ?2 ) ?1,E1 ?E2 P (E1 |?1 (C); Pnl (E = 1|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 ) = E1 ,E2 = ?1 C1 (1 ? ?2 C2 ) + (1 ? ?1 C1 )?2 C2 + ?1 ?2 C1 C2 = ?1 C1 + ?2 C2 ? ?1 ?2 C1 C2 = Pnor (E = 1|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 )(1) To obtain the noisy-and-not, we set E = E1 ? ?E2 (i.e. E1 ? ?E2 = 1 if E1 = 1, E2 = 0 and E1 ? ?E2 = 0 otherwise). The noisy-logical distribution reduces to the noisy-and-not Pn?and?not (E|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 ) [4],[?]: X ~ ?1 )P (E2 |?2 (C); ~ ?2 ) ?1,E1 ??E2 P (E1 |?1 (C); Pnl (E = 1|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 ) = E1 ,E2 = ?1 C1 {1 ? ?2 C2 } = Pn?and?not (E = 1|C1 , C2 ; ?1 , ?2 ) (2) 2 We claim that noisy-logical distributions of this form can represent any conditional distribution ~ The logical function f (E0 , E1 , E2 , E3 ) will be expressed as a combination of logic operP (E|C). ations AND-NOT, OR. The parameters of the distribution are given by ?0 , ?1 , ?2 , ?3 . The proof of this claim will be given for the general case in the next section. To get some insight, we consider the special case where we only know the values P (E|C1 = 1, C2 = 0) and P (E|C1 = 1, C2 = 1). This situation is studied in cognitive science where C1 is considered to be a background cause which always takes value 1, see [1] [3]. In this case, the only causal features are considered, ~ = C1 and ?2 (C) ~ = C2 . ?1 (C) Result. The noisy-or and the noisy-and-not models, given by equations (1,2) are sufficient to fit any values of P (E = 1|1, 0) and P (E = 1|1, 1). (In this section we use P (E = 1|1, 0) to denote P (E = 1|C1 = 1, C2 = 0) and use P (E = 1|1, 1) to denote P (E = 1|C1 = 1, C2 = 1).) The noisy-or and noisy-and-not fit the cases when P (E = 1|1, 1) ? P (E = 1|1, 0) and P (E = 1|1, 1) ? P (E = 1|1, 0) respectively. In Cheng?s terminology [1] C2 is respectively a generative or preventative cause). Proof. We can fit both the noisy-or and noisy-and-not models to P (E|1, 0) by setting ?1 = P (E = 1|1, 0), so it remains to fit the models to P (E|1, 1). There are three cases to consider: (i) P (E = 1|1, 1) > P (E = 1|1, 0), (ii) P (E = 1|1, 1) < P (E = 1|1, 0), and (iii) P (E = 1|1, 1) = P (E = 1|1, 0). It follows directly from equations (1,2) that Pnor (E = 1|1, 1) ? Pnor (E = 1|1, 0) and Pn?and?not (E = 1|1, 1) ? Pn?and?not (E = 1|1, 0) with equality only if P (E = 1|1, 1) = P (E = 1|1, 0). Hence we must fit a noisy-or and a noisy-and-not model to cases (i) and (ii) respectively. For case (i), this requires solving P (E = 1|1, 1) = ?1 + ?2 ? ?1 ?2 to obtain ?2 = {P (E = 1|1, 1) ? P (E = 1|1, 0)}/{1 ? P (E = 1|1, 0)} (note that the condition P (E = 1|1, 1) > P (E = 1|1, 0) ensures that ?2 ? [0, 1]). For case (ii), we must solve P (E = 1|1, 1) = ?1 ? ?1 ?2 which gives ?2 = {P (E = 1|1, 0) ? P (E = 1|1, 1)}/P (E = 1|1, 0) (the condition P (E = 1|1, 1) < P (E = 1|1, 0) ensures that ?2 ? [0, 1]). For case (iii), we can fit either model by setting ?2 = 0. 3 The Noisy-Logical Distribution for N causes ~ where E ? {0, 1} and We next consider representing probability distributions of form P (E|C), ~ C = (C1 , ..., CN ) where Ci ? {0, 1}, ?i = 1, .., N . These distributions can be characterized by ~ for all possible 2N values of C. ~ the values of P (E = 1|C) ~ : i = 0, ..., 2N ? 1}. These features We define the set of 2N binary-valued causal features {?i (C) ~ = 1, ?i (C) ~ = Ci : i = 1, .., N , ?N +1 (C) ~ = C1 ? C2 is the conjunction are ordered so that ?0 (C) ~ of C1 and C2 , and so on. The feature ?(C) = Ca ? Cb ? ... ? Cg will take value 1 if Ca = Cb = ... = Cg = 1 and value 0 otherwise. We define binary variables {Ei : i = 0, ..., 2N ? 1} which are related to the causal features {?i : i = 0, ..., 2N ? 1} by distributions P (Ei = 1|?i ; ?i ) = ?i ?i , specified by parameters {?i : i = 0, ..., 2N ? 1}. Then we define the output variable E to be a logical (i.e. deterministic) function of the {Ei : i = 0, ..., 2N ? 1}. This can be thought of as a circuit diagram. In particular, we define E = f (E0 , ..., E2N ?1 ) = (((((E1 ? E2 ) ? E3 ) ? E4 ....) where E1 ? E2 can be E1 ? E2 or E1 ? ?E2 (where ?E means logical negation). This gives the general noisy-logical distribution, as shown in Figure (2). ~ ? P (E = 1|C; ~) = X ?E,f (E0 ,...,E2N ?1 ) P (Ei = 1|?i ; ?i ). (3) i=0 ~ E 4 N 2Y ?1 The Completeness Result This section proves that the noisy-logical distribution is capable of representing any conditional distribution. This is the main theoretical result of this paper. 3 Figure 2: Circuit diagram in the case with N causes. All conditional distributions can be represented in this form if we use all possible 2N causal features ?, choose the correct parameters ?, and select the correct logical combinations ?. ~ defined on binary variables in terms Result We can represent any conditional distribution P (E|C) of a noisy logical distribution given by equation (3). ~ can be expressed as a Proof. The proof is constructive. We show that any distribution P (E|C) noisy-logical distribution. ~ 0 , ..., C ~ 2N ?1 . This ordering must obey ?i (C ~ i ) = 1 and ?i (C ~ j ) = 0, ?j < i. We order the states C ~ 0 = (0, ..., 0), then selecting the terms with a single This ordering can be obtained by setting C conjunction (i.e. only one Ci is non-zero), then those with two conjunctions (i.e. two Ci ?s are non-zero), then with three conjunctions, and so on. ~ The strategy is to use induction to build a noisy-logical distribution which agrees with P (E|C) ~ for all values of C. We loop over the states and incrementally construct the logical function f (E0 , ..., E2N ?1 ) and estimate the parameters ?0 , ..., ?2N ?1 . It is convenient to recursively deN fine a variable E i+1 = E i ? Ei , so that f (E0 , ..., E2N ?1 ) = E 2 ?1 . ~ = 1. Set E 0 = E0 and ?0 = P (E|0, ..., 0). Then We start the induction using feature ?0 (C) 0 ~ ~ 0 ), so the noisy-logical distribution fits the data for input C ~0. P (E |C0 ; ?0 ) = P (E|C Now proceed by induction to determine E M +1 and ?M +1 , assuming that we have determined E M ~ i ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) = P (E = 1|C ~ i ), for i = 0, ..., M . There are and ?0 , ..., ?M such that P (E M = 1|C three cases to consider which are analogous to the cases considered in the section with two causes. ~ M +1 ) > P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) we need ?M +1 (C) ~ to be a generaCase 1. If P (E = 1|C M +1 M tive feature. Set E = E ? EM +1 with P (EM +1 = 1|?M +1 ; ?M +1 ) = ?M +1 ?M +1 . Then we obtain: ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ., ?M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ., ?M )+P (EM +1 |?M +1 (C); ~ ?M +1 ) P (E M +1 = 1|C P (E M ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ., ?M )P (EM +1 = 1|?M +1 (C); ~ ?M +1 ) = ?P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ., ?M )+?M +1 ?M +1 (C)?P ~ ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ., ?M )?M +1 ?M +1 (C) ~ = 1|C (E M = 1|C ~ i ; ?0 , ..., ?M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ i ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) = In particular, we see that P (E M +1 = 1|C ~ ~ P (E = 1|Ci ) for i < M + 1 (using ?M +1 (Ci ) = 0, ?i < M + 1). To determine the value ~ M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) + ?M +1 ? P (E M = of ?M +1 , we must solve P (E = 1|C ~ ~ ~ M +1 ) ? 1|CM +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M )?M +1 (using ?M +1 (CM +1 ) = 1). This gives ?M +1 = {P (E = 1|C M M ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M )}/{1 ? P (E = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M +1 )} (the conditions ensure P (E = 1|C that ?M +1 ? [0, 1]). ~ M +1 ) < P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) we need ?M +1 (C) ~ to be a prevenCase 2. If P (E = 1|C M +1 M tative feature. Set E = E ? ?EM +1 with P (EM +1 = 1|?M +1 ; ?M +1 ) = ?M +1 ?M +1 . Then we obtain: ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ){1 ? ?M +1 ?M +1 (C)}. ~ P (E M +1 = 1|C (4) 4 ~ i ; ?0 , ..., ?M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ i ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) = P (E = As for the first case, P (E M +1 = 1|C ~ ~ 1|Ci ) for i < M + 1 (because ?M +1 (Ci ) = 0, ?i < M + 1). To determine the value of ~ M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ){1 ? ?M +1 } (us?M +1 we must solve P (E = 1|C M ~ M +1 ) = 1). This gives ?M +1 = {P (E ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) ? P (E = ing ?M +1 (C = 1|C M ~ ~ 1|CM +1 )}/P (E = 1|CM +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ) (the conditions ensure that ?M +1 ? [0, 1]). ~ M +1 ) = P (E M = 1|C ~ M +1 ; ?0 , ..., ?M ), then we do nothing. Case 3. If P (E = 1|C 5 Cognitive Science Human Experiments We illustrate noisy-logical distributions by applying them to model two recent cognitive science experiments by Liljeholm and Cheng which involve causal reasoning in complex environments [6]. In these experiments, the participants are asked questions about the causal structure of the data. But the participants are not given enough data to determine the full distribution (i.e. not enough to determine the causal structure with certainty). Instead the experimental design forces them to choose between two different causal structures. We formulate this as a model selection problem [3]. Formally, we specify distributions P (D|~ ? , Graph) for generating the data D from a causal model specified by Graph and parameterized by ? ~ . These distributions will be of simple noisy-logical form. We set the prior distributions P (~ ? |Graph) on the parameter values to be the uniform distribution. The evidence for the causal model is given by: Z P (D|Graph) = d~ ? P (D|~ ? , Graph)P (~ ? |Graph). (5) P (D|Graph1) We then evaluate the log-likelihood ratio log P (D|Graph2) between two causal models Graph1 Graph2, called the causal support [3] and use this to predict the performance of the participants. This gives good fits to the experimental results. As an alternative theoretical model, we consider the possibility that the participants use the same causal structures, specified by Graph1 and Graph2, but use a linear model to combine cues. Formally, this corresponds to a model P (E = 1|C1 , ..., CN ) = ?1 C1 + ... + ?N CN (with ?i ? 0, ?i = 1, ..., N and ?1 + ... + ?N ? 1). This model corresponds [1, 3] to the classic Rescorla-Wagner learning model [8]. It cannot be expressed in simple noisy-logical form. Our simulations show that this model does not account for human participant performance . We note that previous attempts to model experiments with multiple causes and conjunctions by Novick and Cheng [2] can be interpreted as performing maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of noisy-logical distributions (their paper helped inspire our work). Those experiments, however, were simpler than those described here and model selection was not used. The extensive literatures on two cases [1, 3] can also be interpreted in terms of noisy-logical models. 5.1 Experiment I: Multiple Causes In Experiment 1 of [6], the cover story involves a set of allergy patients who either did or did not have a headache, and either had or had not received allergy medicines A and B. The experimental participants were informed that two independent studies had been conducted in different labs using different patient groups. In the first study, patients were administered medicine A, whereas in the second study patients were administered both medicines A and B. A simultaneous presentation format [7] was used to display the specific contingency conditions used in both studies to the experimental subjects. The participants were then asked whether medicine B caused the headache. We represent this experiment as follows using binary-valued variables E, B1 , B2 , C1 , C2 . The variable E indicates whether a headache has occurred (E = 1) or not (E = 0). B1 = 1 and B2 = 1 notate background causes for the two studies (which are always present). C1 and C2 indicate whether medicine A and B are present respectively (e.g. C1 = 1 if A is present, C1 = 0 otherwise). The data D shown to the subjects can be expressed as D = (D1 , D2 ) where D1 is the contingency table Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 0) for the first study 5 and D2 is the contingency table Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 1) for the second study. The experimental design forces the participants to choose between the two causal models shown on the left of figure (3). These causal models differ by whether C2 (i.e. medicine B) can have an effect or not. We set P (D|~ ? , Graph) = P (D1 |~ ?1 , Graph)P (D2 |~ ?2 , Graph), ~ ? )} (for i = 1, 2) is the contingency data. We express these distribuwhere Di = {(E ? , C i Q ? ~? tions in form P (Di |~ ?i , Graph) = ~ i? , Graph). For Graph1, P1 (.) and P2 (.) ? Pi (E |Ci , ? are P (E|B1 , C1 , ?B1 , ?C1 ) and P (E|B2 , C1 , ?B2 , ?C1 ). For Graph2, P1 (.) and P2 (.) are P (E|B1 , C1 , ?B1 , ?C1 ) and P (E|B2 , C1 , C2 , ?B2 , ?C1 , ?C2 ). All these P (E|.) are noisy-or distributions. For Experiment 1 there are two conditions [6], see table (1). In the first power-constant condition [6], the data is consistent with the causal structure for Graph1 (i.e. C2 has no effect) using noisy-or distributions. In the second ?P-constant condition [6], the data is consistent with the causal structure for Graph1 but with noisy-or replaced by the linear distributions (e.g. P (E = 1|C1 , ..., Cn ) = ?1 C1 + ... + ?n Cn )). (1) (2) 5.2 Table 1: Experimental conditions (1) and (2) for Experiment 1 Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 0) Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 1) 16/24, 22/24 0/24,18/24 Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 0) Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 0, C2 = 0), Pd (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 1, C2 = 1) 0/24, 6/24 16/24,22/24 Experiment I: Results We compare Liljeholm and Cheng?s experimental results with our theoretical simulations. These comparisons are shown on the right-hand-side of figure (3). The left panel shows the proportion of participants who decide that medicine B causes a headache for the two conditions. The right panel shows the predictions of our model (labeled ?noisy-logical?) together with predictions of a model that replaces the noisy-logical distributions by a linear model (labeled ?linear?). The simulations show that the noisy-logical model correctly predicts that participants (on average) judge that medicine B has no effect in the first experimental condition, but B does have an effect in the second condition. By contrast, the linear model makes the opposite (wrong) prediction. In summary, model selection comparing two noisy-logical models gives a good prediction of participant performance. Figure 3: Causal model and results for Experiment I. Left panel: two alternative causal models for the two studies. Right panel: the experimental results (proportion of patients who think medicine B causes headaches)) for the Power-constant and ?P-constant conditions [6]. Far right, the causal support for the noisy-logic and linear models. 6 5.3 Experiment II: Causal Interaction Liljeholm and Cheng [6] also investigated causal interactions. The experimental design was identical to that used in Experiment 1, except that participants were presented with three studies in which only one medicine (A) was tested. Participants were asked to judge whether medicine A interacts with background causes that vary across the three studies. We define the background causes as B1 ,B2 ,B3 for the three studies, and C1 for medicine A. This experiment was also run under two different conditions, see table (2). The first power-constant condition [6] was consistent with a noisy-logical model, but the second power-varying condition [6] was not. (1) (2) Table 2: Experimental conditions (1) and (2) for Experiment 2 P (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 1) 16/24, 22/24 P (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 1) 8/24,20/24 P (E = 1|B3 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B3 = 1, C1 = 1) 0/24,18/24 P (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B1 = 1, C1 = 1) P (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B2 = 1, C1 = 1) P (E = 1|B3 = 1, C1 = 0), P (E = 1|B3 = 1, C1 = 1) 0/24, 6/24 0/24,12/24 0/24,18/24 The experimental design caused participants to choose between two causal models shown on the left panel of figure (4). The probability of generating the data is given by P (D|~ ? , Graph) = P (D1 |~ ?1 , Graph)P (D2 |~ ?2 , Graph)P (D3 |~ ?3 , Graph). For Graph1, the P (Di |.) are noisyor distributions P (E|B1 , C1 , ?B1 , ?C1 ), P (E|B2 , C1 , ?B2 , ?C1 ), P (E|B3 , C1 , ?B3 , ?C1 ). For Graph2, the P (Di |.) are P (E|B1 , C1 , ?B1 , ?C1 ), P (E|B2 , C1 , B2 C1 , ?B2 , ?C1 , ?B2C1 ) and P (E|B3 , C1 , B3 C1 , ?B3 , ?C1 , ?B3C1 ). All the distributions are noisy-or on the unary causal features (e.g. B, C1 ), but the nature of the conjunctive cause B ? C1 is unknown (i.e. not specified by the experimental design). Hence our theory considers the possibilities that it is a noisy-or (e.g. can produce headaches) or noisy-and-not (e.g. can prevent headaches), see graph 2 of Figure (4). 5.4 Results of Experiment II Figure (4) shows human and model performance for the two experimental conditions. Our noisylogical model is in agreement with human performance ? i.e. there is no interaction between causes in the power-constant condition, but there is interaction in the power-varying condition. By contrast, the linear model predicts interaction in both conditions and hence fails to model human performance. Figure 4: Causal model and results for Experiment II. Left panel: two alternative causal models (one involving conjunctions) for the three studies . Right panel: the proportion of participants who think that there is an interaction (conjunction) between medicine A and the background for the powerconstant and power-varying conditions [6]. Far right, the causal support for the noisy-logical and linear models. 7 6 Summary The noisy-logical distribution gives a new way to represent conditional probability distributions defined over binary variables. The complexity of the distribution can be adjusted by restricting the set of causal factors. If all the causal factors are allowed, then the distribution can represent any conditional distribution. But by restricting the set of causal factors we can obtain standard distributions such as the noisy-or and noisy-and-not. We illustrated the noisy-logical distribution by modeling experimental findings on causal reasoning. Our results showed that this distribution fitted the experimental data and, in particular, accounted for the major trends (unlike the linear model). This is consistent with the success of noisy-or and noisyand-not models for accounting for experiments involving two causes [1], [2],[3]. This suggests that humans may make use of noisy-logical representations for causal reasoning. One attraction of the noisy-logical representation is that it helps clarify the relationship between logic and probabilities. Standard logical relationships between causes and effects arise in the limit as the ?i take values 0 or 1. We can, for example, bias the data towards a logical form by using a prior on the ? ~ . This may be useful, for example, when modeling human cognition ? evidence suggests that humans first learn logical relationships and, only later, move to probabilities. In summary, the noisy-logical distribution is a novel way to represent conditional probability distributions defined on binary variables. We hope this class of distributions will be useful for modeling cognitive phenomena and for applications to artificial intelligence. Acknowledgements We thank Mimi Liljeholm, Patricia Cheng, Adnan Darwiche, Keith Holyoak, Iasonas Kokkinos, and YingNian Wu for helpful discussions. Mimi and Patricia kindly gave us access to their experimental data. We acknowledge funding support from the W.M. Keck foundation and from NSF 0413214. References [1] P. W. Cheng. From covariation to causation: A causal power theory. Psychological Review, 104, 367405. 1997. [2] L.R. Novick and P.W. Cheng. Assessing interactive causal influence. Psychological Review, 111, 455-485. 2004. [3] T. L. Griffiths, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Structure and strength in causal induction. Cognitive Psychology, 51, 334-384, 2005. [4] J. Pearl, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan-Kauffman, 1988. [5] C.N. Glymour. The Mind?s Arrow: Bayes Nets and Graphical Causal Models in Psychology. MIT Press. 2001. [6] M. Liljeholm and P. W. Cheng. When is a Cause the ?Same?? Coherent Generalization across Contexts. Psychological Science, in press. 2007. [7] M. J. Buehner, P. W. Cheng, and D. Clifford. From covariation to causation: A test of the assumption of causal power. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29, 1119-1140, 2003. [8] R. A. Rescorla, and A. R. Wagner. A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement. In A. H. Black and W. F. Prokasy (Eds.), Classical conditioning II: Current theory and research (pp. 64-99). New York: Appleton-Century Crofts. 1972. 8
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Flight Control in the Dragonfly: A Neurobiological Simulation William E. Faller and Marvin W. Luttges Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorndo, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0429. ABSTRACT Neural network simulations of the dragonfly flight neurocontrol system have been developed to understand how this insect uses complex, unsteady aerodynamics. The simulation networks account for the ganglionic spatial distribution of cells as well as the physiologic operating range and the stochastic cellular fIring history of each neuron. In addition the motor neuron firing patterns, "flight command sequences", were utilized. Simulation training was targeted against both the cellular and flight motor neuron firing patterns. The trained networks accurately resynthesized the intraganglionic cellular firing patterns. These in tum controlled the motor neuron fIring patterns that drive wing musculature during flight. Such networks provide both neurobiological analysis tools and fIrst generation controls for the use of "unsteady" aerodynamics. 1 INTRODUCTION Hebb (1949) proposed a theory of inter-neuronal learning. "Hebbian Learning", in which cells acting together as assemblies alter the effIcacy of mutual interconnections. These neural "cell assemblies" presumably comprise the information processing "units" of the nervous system. To provide one framework within which to perform detailed analyses of these cellular organizational "rules" a new analytical technique based on neural networks is being explored. The neurobiological data analyzed was obtained from the neurnl cells of the drngonfly ganglia. 514 Flight Control in the Dragonfly: A Neurobiological Simulation The dragonfly use of unsteady separated flows to generate highly maneuverable flight is governed by the control sequences that originate in the thoracic ganglia flight motor neurons (MN). To provide this control the roughly 2200 cells of the meso- and metathoracic ganglia integrate environmental cues that include visual input. wind shear, velocity and acceleration. The cellular flring patterns coupled with proprioceptive feedback in turn drive elevator/depressor flight MNs which typically produce a 25-37 Hz wingbeat depending on the flight mode (Luttges 1989; Kliss 1989). The neural networks utilized in the analyses incorporate the spatial distribution of cells, the physiologic operating range of each neuron and the stochastic history of the cellular spike trains (Faller and Luttges 1990). The present work describes two neural networks. The simultaneous Single-unit firing patterns at time (t) were used to predict the cellular ftring patterns at time (t+~). And, the simultaneous single-unit frring patterns were used to "drive" flight-MN frring patterns at a 37 Hz wingbeat frequency. 2 METHODS 2.1 BIOLOGICAL DATA Recordings were obtained from the mesothoracic ganglion of the dragonfly Aeshna in the ganglionic regions known to contain the cell bodies of flight MNs as well as small and large cell bodies (Simmons 1977; Kliss 1989). Multiple-unit recordings from many cells (-40-80) were systematically decomposed to yield simultaneously active single-unit ftring patterns. The technique has been described elsewhere (Faller and Luttges in press). During the recording of neural activity spontaneous flight episodes commonly occurred. These events were consistent with typical flight episodes (2-3 secs duration) observed in the tethered dragonfly (Somps and Luttges 1985). For analysis, a 12 second record was obtained from 58 single units, 26 rostral cells and 32 caudal cells. The continuous record was separated into 4 second behavioral epochs: pre-flight, flight and post-flight. A simplified model of one flight mode was assumed. Each forewing is driven by 3 main elevator and 2 main depressor muscles, innervated by 11 and 14 MNs, respectively. A 37 Hz MN firing frequency, 3-5 spikes per output burst, and 180 degree phase shift between antagonistic MNs was assumed. Given the symmetrical nature of the elevator/depressor output patterns only the 11 elevator MNs were simulated. Prior to analysis the ganglionic spatial distribution of neurons was reconstructed. The importance of this is reserved for later discussion. A method has been described (Faller and Luttges submitted:a) that resolves the spatial distribution based on two distancing criteria: the amplitude ratio across electrodes and the spike angle (width) for each cell. Cells were sorted along a rostral, cell 1, to caudal, cell 58 continuum based on this infonnation. The middle 2 seconds of the flight data was simulated. This was consistent with the known duration of spontaneous flight episodes. Within these 2 seconds, 44 cells remained active, 19 rostral and 25 caudal. The cell numbering (1-58) derived for the biological data was not altered. The remaining 14 inactive cells/units carry zeros in all analyses. 515 516 Faller and Luttges 2.2 MIMICKING THE SINGLE CELLS Each neuron was represented by a unique unit that mimicked both the mean fIring frequency and dynamic range of the physiologic cell. The activation value ranged from zero to twice the nonnalized mean fIring frequency for each cell. The dynamic range was calculated as a unique thermodynamic profile for each sigmoidal activation function. The technique has been described fully elsewhere (Faller and Luttges 1990). 2.3 SPIKE TRAIN REPRESENT ATION The spike trains and MN firing patterns were represented as iteratively continuous "analog" gradients (Faller and Luttges 1990 & submitted:b). Briefly. each spike train was represented in two-dimensions based on the following assumptions: (1) the mean fIring frequency reflects the inherent physiology of each cell and (2) the interspike intervals encode the information transferred to other cells. Exponential functions were mapped into the intervals between consecutive spikes and these functions were then discretized to provide the spike train inputs to the neural network. These functions retain the exact spiking times and the temporal modulations (interval code) of cell fIring histories. 2.4 ARCHITECTURE The two simulation architectures were as follows: Simulation 2 Simulation 1 Input layer 1 cell:l unit (44 units) 1 cell:l unit (44 units) Hidden layer 1 ceU:2 units (88 units) 1 cell:2 unit (88 units) Output layer 1 cell: 1 unit (44 total units) 11 main elevator MNs The hidden units were recurrently connected and the interconnections between units were based on a 1st order exponential rise and decay. The general architecture has been described elsewhere (Faller and Luttges 1990). For the cell-to-cell simulation no bias units were utilized. Since the MNs fire both synchronously and infrequently bias units were incorporated in the MN simulation. These units were constrained to function synchronously at the MN fuing frequency. This constraining technique pennitted the network to be trained despite the sparsity of the MN dataset Training was perfonned using a supervised backpropagation algorithm in time. All 44 cells. 2000 points per discretized gradient (~=1 msec real-time) were presented synchronously to the network. The results were consistent for L\=2-5 msec in all cases. The simulation paradigms were as follows: Simulation 1 Simulation 2 lnmJ.t Neural activity at time (t) Neural activity at time (t) Output/Target Neural activity at time (t+~) MN activity at time (t) Initial weights were random. -0.3 and 0.3. and the learning rate was 1l=O.2. Training was performed until the temporal reproduction of cell spiking patterns was verified for all cells. Following training. the network was "run". 1l = o. Flight Control in the Dragonfly: A Neurobiological Simulation Sum squared errors for aU units were calculated and normalized to an activation value of 0 to 1. The temporal reproduction of the output patterns was verified by linear correlation against the targeted spike trains. The "effective" contribution of each unit to the flight pattern was then determined by "lesioningrt individual cells from the network prior to presenting the input pattern. The effects of lesioning were judged by the change in error relative to the unlesioned network. 3 RESULTS 3.1 CELL?TO-CELL SIMULATION Following training the complete pattern set was presented to the network. And. the sum squared error was averaged over aU units. Fig. 1. Clearly the network has a different "interpretation rt of the data at certain time steps. This is due both to the omission/commission of spikes as well as timing errors. However. the data needed to reproduce overall cell firing patterns is clearly available. o~O~--------------------------------------------------~ 00-20t ffio.tOc:t:l 0.00 ~ I I I I t 0'00 I I , I I ~ ~ (zoo JOOO I TIM!: t4JWSECONDS) I I 1 :to Figure 1: The network error Unit sum squared errors were also averaged over the 2 second simulation. Fig. 2. Clearly the network predicted some unil/cell flring patterns e:lSier than others. !~ t. ~ 0 0,0,0,0, ,ctili,D1dJlitIm, ,',,.DJlI1.1bdJJjJ,llilli),dli 10 10 ~o 40 UNIT (SHOWN BY caJ.. NUYSER) ~ so Figure 2: The unit errors The temporal reproduction of the cell firing patterns was verified by linear correlation between the network outputs and the biological spike train representations. If the network accurately reproduces the temporal history of the spike trains these functions should be identical. r=1. Fig. 3. Clearly the network reproduces the temporal coding inherent within each spike train. The lowest correlation of roughly 0.85 is highly signffic:ult. (p<O.Ol). Figure 3: The unit temporal errors 517 518 Faller and Luttges One way to measure the relative importance of each unit/cell to the network is to omit/"lesion each unit prior to presenting the cell firing patterns to the trained network. The data shown was collected by lesioning each unit individually, Fig. 4. The unlesioned network error is shown as the "0" cell. Overall the degradation of the network was minimal. Clearly some units provide more information to the network in reproducing the cell fuing histories. Units that caused relatively large errors when "lesioned" were defmed as primary units. The other units were defined as secondary units. It !~t'Q.O'Q'QI'~'~'I" '~'I'I'I.J1bJJ.Jl.JJ.1 o ::I 10 20 JO 40 UNIT (SHOWN BY CElL NUMBER) ~O to Figure 4: Lesion studies The primary units (cells) form what might classically be termed a central pattern generator. These units can provide a relatively gross representation of both cellular and MN firing patterns. The generation of dynamic cellular and MN firing patterns. however is apparently dependent on both primary and secondary units. It appears that the generation of functional activity patterns within the ganglia is largely controlled by the dynamic interactions between large groups of cells. ie. the "whole" network. This is consistent with other results derived from both neural network and statistical analyses of the biological data (Faller and Luttges 1990 & submitted:b). 9 3.2 MOTOR NEURON FIRING PATTERNS The 44 cellular frring patterns were then used to drive the MN ruing patterns. Following training. the cell fIring pattern set was presented to the network and the sum squared error was averaged over the output MNs. Fig. 5. The error in this case oscillates in time at the wingbeat frequency of 37 Hz. As will be shown. however. this is an artifact and the network does accurately drive the MNs. Im l III om~ ~ o 0:: ~o ?? , o JIIIII UIIUllll!llllUllul II II U!lU 111111111 Uh Ulllilu 1111 IlluUIIL , 2000 Jobo 1 00 nUE (t.IlWSfCONOS) "~l Figure 5: The network error For each MN the sum squared error was also averaged over the 2 second simulation. Fig. 6. Clearly individual MNs contribute nearly equally to the network error. ~ o~I-r==~==~==~==~==~==~==~==~==~~~~~:l ~ ~t I ~.I ~.I _____.I.~.I ~.I I ~oI ~.I ,~I,~I,-'--tIl -+---L- ::::I Q +---'--1 I UOTOR NEURON NUUBER Figure 6: The unit errors 12 Flight Control in the Dragonfly: A Neurobiological Simulation The temporal reproduction of the MN ftring patterns was verifted by linear correlation between the output and targeted MN ftring patterns of the network. This is shown in Fig. 7. Clearly the cell inputs to the network have the spiking characteristics needed for driving the temporal ftring sequences of the MNs innervating the wing musculature. All correlations are roughly 0.80. highly signiftcant. (p<O.Ol). The output for one MN is shown relative to the targeted MN output in Fig. 8. Clearly the network does drive the MNs correctly. ,.oa! g 11.10.90 u i~ E; u a I. .1.1 ? . 111.1. I I I I I 12 I WOTOR NEURON NUUBER Figure 7: The unit temporal errors ~'AO~--------~------------~------------~~----------' ~o.~ ~o~o ~ O.2! ~ - - TARGETED MOTOR NEURON OUTPUT __ .;>... _UU'"" ?.'"ON .. OUTPUT GO.OO~--~~~~20~--~~--~~--~----~6~~--~----teo~--~--~1~O ~ llUE CMIUJSECONDS} Figure 8: The MN flring patterns 3.3 SUMMARY The re~ults indicate that synthetic networks can learn and then synthesize patterns of neural spiking activity needed for biological function. In this case, cell and MN fIring patterns occurring in the dragonfly ganglia during a spontaneous flight episode. 4 DISCUSSION Recordings from more than 50 spatially unique cells that reflect the complex network characteristics of a small. intact neural tissue were used to successfully train two neural networks. Unit sum squared errors were less than 0.003 and spike train temporal histories were accurately reproduced. There was little evidence for unexpected "cellular behavior". Functional lesioning of single units in the network caused minimal degradation of network performance. however. some lesioned cells were more important than others to overall network performance. The capability to lesion cells permitted the contribution of individual cells to the production of the flight rhythm to be detennined. The detection of primary and secondary cells underlying the dynamic generation of both cellular and MN firing patterns is one example. Such results may encourage neurobiologists to adopt neural networks as effective analytical tools with which to study and analyze spike train data. Clearly the solution arrived at is not the biological one. However. the networks do accurately predict the future cell firing patterns based on past flring history information. It 519 520 Faller and L u ttges is asserted that the network must therefore contain the majority of infonnation required to resolve biological cell interactions during flight in the dragonfly. A sample of 58 ganglionic cells was utilized. the remaining cells functional contributions are presumably statistically accounted for by this small sampling. The inherent "infonnation" of the biological network is presumably stored in the weight matrices as a generalized statistical representation of the "rules" through which cells participate in biological assemblies. Analyses of the weight matrices in turn may permit the operational "rules" of cell assemblies to be defined. Questions about the effects of cell size. the spatial architecture of the network and the temporal interactions between cells as they relate to cell assembly function can be addressed. For this reason the individuality of cells. the spatial architecture and the stochastic cellular firing histories of the individual cells were retained within the network architectures utilized. Crucial to these analyses will be methods that permit direct, time-incrementing evaluations of the weight matrices following training. Biological nervous system function can now be analyzed from two points of view: direct analyses of the biological data and indirect, but potentially more approachable, analyses of the weight matrices from trained neural networks such as the ones described. REFERENCES Faller WE, Luttges MW (1990) A Neural Network Simulation of Simultaneous SingleUnit Activity Recorded from the Dragonfly Ganglia. ISA Paper #90-033 Faller WE, Luttges MW (in press) Recording of Simultaneous Single-Unit Activity in the Dragonfly Ganglia. J Neurosci Methods Faller WE, Luttges MW (Submitted:a) Spatiotemporal Analysis of Simultaneous SingleUnit Activity in the Dragonfly: 1. Cellular Activity Patterns. Bioi Cybem Faller WE, Luttges MW (Submitted:b) Spatiotemporal Analysis of Simultaneous SingleUnit Activity in the Dragonfly: II. Network Connectivity. Bioi Cybem Hebb DO (1949) The Organization of Behavior: A Neuropsychological Theory. Wiley, New York, Chapman and Hall, London Kliss MH (1989) Neurocontrol Systems and Wing-Fluid Interactions Underlying Dragonfly Flight Ph.D. Thesis, University of Colorado. Boulder, pp 70-80 Luttges MW (1989) Accomplished Insect Fliers. In: Gad-el-Hale M (ed) Frontiers in Experimental Fluid Mechanics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. pp 429-456 Simmons P (1977) The Neuronal Control of Dragonfly Flight I. Anatomy. J exp Bioi 71:123-140 Somps C, Luttges MW (1985) Dragonfly flight: Novel uses of unsteady separated flows. Science 228:1326-1329 Part IX Applications
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Bayesian Co-Training Shipeng Yu, Balaji Krishnapuram, Romer Rosales, Harald Steck, R. Bharat Rao CAD & Knowledge Solutions, Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc. [email protected] Abstract We propose a Bayesian undirected graphical model for co-training, or more generally for semi-supervised multi-view learning. This makes explicit the previously unstated assumptions of a large class of co-training type algorithms, and also clarifies the circumstances under which these assumptions fail. Building upon new insights from this model, we propose an improved method for co-training, which is a novel co-training kernel for Gaussian process classifiers. The resulting approach is convex and avoids local-maxima problems, unlike some previous multi-view learning methods. Furthermore, it can automatically estimate how much each view should be trusted, and thus accommodate noisy or unreliable views. Experiments on toy data and real world data sets illustrate the benefits of this approach. 1 Introduction Data samples may sometimes be characterized in multiple ways, e.g., web-pages can be described both in terms of the textual content in each page and the hyperlink structure between them. [1] have shown that the error rate on unseen test samples can be upper bounded by the disagreement between the classification-decisions obtained from independent characterizations (i.e., views) of the data. Thus, in the web-page example, misclassification rate can be indirectly minimized by reducing the rate of disagreement between hyperlink-based and content-based classifiers, provided these characterizations are independent conditional on the class. In many application domains class labels can be expensive to obtain and hence scarce, whereas unlabeled data are often cheap and abundantly available. Moreover, the disagreement between the class labels suggested by different views can be computed even when using unlabeled data. Therefore, a natural strategy for using unlabeled data to minimize the misclassification rate is to enforce consistency between the classification decisions based on several independent characterizations of the unlabeled samples. For brevity, unless otherwise specified, we shall use the term co-training to describe the entire genre of methods that rely upon this intuition, although strictly it should only refer to the original algorithm of [2]. Some co-training algorithms jointly optimize an objective function which includes misclassification penalties (loss terms) for classifiers from each view and a regularization term that penalizes lack of agreement between the classification decisions of the different views. In recent times, this coregularization approach has become the dominant strategy for exploiting the intuition behind multiview consensus learning, rendering obsolete earlier alternating-optimization strategies. We survey in Section 2 the major approaches to co-training, the theoretical guarantees that have spurred interest in the topic, and the previously published concerns about the applicability to certain domains. We analyze the precise assumptions that have been made and the optimization criteria to better understand why these approaches succeed (or fail) in certain situations. Then in Section 3 we propose a principled undirected graphical model for co-training which we call the Bayesian cotraining, and show that co-regularization algorithms provide one way for maximum-likelihood (ML) learning under this probabilistic model. By explicitly highlighting previously unstated assumptions, 1 Bayesian co-training provides a deeper understanding of the co-regularization framework, and we are also able to discuss certain fundamental limitations of multi-view consensus learning. In Section 4, we show that even simple and visually illustrated 2-D problems are sometimes not amenable to a co-training/co-regularization solution (no matter which specific model/algorithm is used ? including ours). Empirical studies on two real world data sets are also illustrated. Summarizing our algorithmic contributions, co-regularization is exactly equivalent to the use of a novel co-training kernel for support vector machines (SVMs) and Gaussian processes (GP), thus allowing one to leverage the large body of available literature for these algorithms. The kernel is intrinsically non-stationary, i.e., the level of similarity between any pair of samples depends on all the available samples, whether labeled or unlabeled, thus promoting semi-supervised learning. Therefore, this approach is significantly simpler and more efficient than the alternating-optimization that is used in previous co-regularization implementations. Furthermore, we can automatically estimate how much each view should be trusted, and thus accommodate noisy or unreliable views. 2 Related Work Co-Training and Theoretical Guarantees: The iterative, alternating co-training method originally introduced in [2] works in a bootstrap mode, by repeatedly adding pseudo-labeled unlabeled samples into the pool of labeled samples, retraining the classifiers for each view, and pseudo-labeling additional unlabeled samples where at least one view is confident about its decision. The paper provided PAC-style guarantees that if (a) there exist weakly useful classifiers on each view of the data, and (b) these characterizations of the sample are conditionally independent given the class label, then the co-training algorithm can utilize the unlabeled data to learn arbitrarily strong classifiers. [1] proved PAC-style guarantees that if (a) sample sizes are large, (b) the different views are conditionally independent given the class label, and (c) the classification decisions based on multiple views largely agree with each other, then with high probability the misclassification rate is upper bounded by the rate of disagreement between the classifiers based on each view. [3] tried to reduce the strong theoretical requirements. They showed that co-training would be useful if (a) there exist low error rate classifiers on each view, (b) these classifiers never make mistakes in classification when they are confident about their decisions, and (c) the two views are not too highly correlated, in the sense that there would be at least some cases where one view makes confident classification decisions while the classifier on the other view does not have much confidence in its own decision. While each of these theoretical guarantees is intriguing and theoretically interesting, they are also rather unrealistic in many application domains. The assumption that classifiers do not make mistakes when they are confident and that of class conditional independence are rarely satisfied in practice. Nevertheless empirical success has been reported. Co-EM and Related Algorithms: The Co-EM algorithm of [4] extended the original bootstrap approach of the co-training algorithm to operate simultaneously on all unlabeled samples in an iterative batch mode. [5] used this idea with SVMs as base classifiers and subsequently in unsupervised learning by [6]. However, co-EM also suffers from local maxima problems, and while each iteration?s optimization step is clear, the co-EM is not really an expectation maximization algorithm (i.e., it lacks a clearly defined overall log-likelihood that monotonically improves across iterations). Co-Regularization: [7] proposed an approach for two-view consensus learning based on simultaneously learning multiple classifiers by maximizing an objective function which penalized misclassifications by any individual classifier, and included a regularization term that penalized a high level of disagreement between different views. This co-regularization framework improves upon the cotraining and co-EM algorithms by maximizing a convex objective function; however the algorithm still depends on an alternating optimization that optimizes one view at a time. This approach was later adapted to two-view spectral clustering [8]. Relationship to Current Work: The present work provides a probabilistic graphical model for multi-view consensus learning; alternating optimization based co-regularization is shown to be just one algorithm that accomplishes ML learning in this model. A more efficient, alternative strategy is proposed here for fully Bayesian classification under the same model. In practice, this strategy offers several advantages: it is easily extended to multiple views, it accommodates noisy views which are less predictive of class labels, and reduces run-time and memory requirements. 2 f(x1) y1 f1(x1(1)) f(x2) y2 f1(x2(1)) fc(x1) f2(x1(2)) y1 yn (b) f1(xn(1)) y2 fc(xn) f2(x2(2)) ? f(xn) ? ? (a) fc(x2) f2(xn(2)) yn Figure 1: Factor graph for (a) one-view and (b) two-view models. 3 3.1 Bayesian Co-Training Single-View Learning with Gaussian Processes A Gaussian Process (GP) defines a nonparametric prior over functions in Bayesian statistics [9]. A random real-valued function f : Rd ? R follows a GP, denoted by GP(h, ?), if for every finite number of data points x1 , . . . , xn ? Rd , f = {f (xi )}ni=1 follows a multivariate Gaussian N (h, K) with mean h = {h(xi )}ni=1 and covariance K = {?(xi , xj )}ni,j=1 . Normally we fix the mean function h ? 0, and take a parametric (and usually stationary) form for the kernel function ? (e.g., the Gaussian kernel ?(xk , x` ) = exp(??kxk ? x` k2 ) with ? > 0 a free parameter). In a single-view, supervised learning scenario, an output or target yi is given for each observation xi (e.g., for regression yi ? R and for classification yi ? {?1, R +1}). In the GP model we assume there is a latent function f underlying the output, p(yi |xi ) = p(yi |f, xi )p(f ) df , with the GP prior p(f ) = GP(h, ?). Given the latent function f , p(yi |f, xi ) = p(yi |f (xi )) takes a Gaussian noise model N (f (xi ), ? 2 ) for regression, and a sigmoid function ?(yi f (xi )) for classification. The dependency structure of the single-view GP model can be shown as an undirected graph as in Fig. 1(a). The maximal cliques of the graphical model are the fully connected nodes (f (x1 ), . . . , f (xn )) and the pairs (yi , f (xi )), i = 1, . . . , n. Therefore, the Qjoint probability of random variables f = {f (xi )} and y = {yi } is defined as p(f , y) = Z1 ?(f ) i ?(yi , f (xi )), with potential functions1 ? exp(? 2?1 2 kyi ? f (xi )k2 ) for regression 1 > ?1 ?(f ) = exp(? 2 f K f ), ?(yi , f (xi )) = (1) ?(yi f (xi )) for classification and normalization factor Z (hereafter Z is defined such that the joint probability sums to 1). 3.2 Undirected Graphical Model for Multi-View Learning In multi-view learning, suppose we have m different views of a same set of n data samples. Let (j) xi ? Rdj be the features for the i-th sample obtained using the j-th view, where dj is the di(1) (m) mensionality of the input space for view j. Then the vector xi , (xi , . . . , xi ) is the complete (j) (j) representation of the i-th data sample, and x(j) , (x1 , . . . , xn ) represents all sample observations for the j-th view. As in the single-view learning, let y = (y1 , . . . , yn ) where yi is the single output assigned to the i-th data point. One can clearly concatenate the multiple views into a single view and apply a single-view GP model, but the basic idea of multi-view learning is to introduce one function per view which only uses the features from that view, and then jointly optimize these functions such that they come to a consensus. Looking at this problem from a GP perspective, let fj denote the latent function for the j-th view (i.e., using features only from view j), and let fj ? GP(0, ?j ) be its GP prior in view j. Since one data sample i has only one single label yi even though it has multiple features from the multiple 1 The definition of ? in this paper has been overloaded to simplify notation, but its meaning should be clear from the function arguments. 3 (j) views (i.e., latent function value fj (xi ) for view j), the label yi should depend on all of these latent function values for data sample i. The challenge here is to make this dependency explicit in a graphical model. We tackle this problem by introducing a new latent function, the consensus function fc , to ensure conditional independence between the output y and the m latent functions {fj } for the m views (see Fig. 1(b) for the undirected graphical model). At the functional level, the output y depends only on fc , and latent functions {fj } depend on each other only via the consensus function fc . That is, we have the joint probability: p(y, fc , f1 , . . . , fm ) = m Y 1 ?(y, fc ) ?(fj , fc ), Z j=1 with some potential functions ?. In the ground network with n data samples, let f c = {fc (xi )}ni=1 (j) and f j = {fj (xi )}ni=1 . The graphical model leads to the following factorization: p (y, f c , f 1 , . . . , f m ) = m Y 1 Y ?(yi , fc (xi )) ?(f j )?(f j , f c ). Z i j=1 (2) Here the within-view potential ?(f j ) specifies the dependency structure within each view j, and the consensus potential ?(f j , f c ) describes how the latent function in each view is related with the consensus function fc . With a GP prior for each of the views, we can define the following potentials: ? ? ? ? 1 > ?1 kf j ? f c k2 , (3) ?(f j ) = exp ? f j Kj f j , ?(f j , f c ) = exp ? 2 2?j2 (j) (j) where Kj is the covariance matrix of view j, i.e., Kj (xk , x` ) = ?j (xk , x` ), and ?j > 0 a scalar which quantifies how far away the latent function f j is from f c . The output potential ?(yi , fc (xi )) is defined the same as that in (1) for regression or classification. Some more insight may be gained by taking a careful look at these definitions: 1) The within-view potentials only rely on the intrinsic structure of each view, i.e., through the covariance Kj in a GP setting; 2) Each consensus potential actually defines a Gaussian over the difference of f j and f c , i.e., f j ? f c ? N (0, ?j2 I), and it can also be interpreted as assuming a conditional Gaussian for f j with the consensus f c being the mean. Alternatively if we focus on f c , the joint consensus potentials effectively define a conditional Gaussian prior for f c , f c |f 1 , . . . , f m , as N (?c , ?c2 I) where ? X ??1 X fj 1 2 , . (4) ?c = ?c2 ? = c 2 ?j ?j2 j j This can be easily verified as a product of Gaussians. This indicates that the prior mean of the consensus function f c is a weighted combination of the latent functions from all the views, and the weight is given by the inverse variance of each consensus potential. The higher the variance, the smaller the contribution to the consensus function. More insights of this undirected graphical model can be seen from the marginals, which we discuss in detail in the following subsections. One advantage of this representation is that is allows us to see that many existing multi-view learning models are actually a special case of the proposed framework. In addition, this Bayesian interpretation also helps us understand both the benefits and the limitations of co-training. 3.3 Marginal 1: Co-Regularized Multi-View Learning By taking the integral of (2) over f c (and ignoring the output potential for the moment), we obtain the joint marginal distribution of the m latent functions: ? ? m ? 1X X kf j ? f k k2 ? 1 1 f j K?1 . (5) p(f 1 , . . . , f m ) = exp ? j fj ? ? 2 Z 2 ?j2 + ?k2 ? j=1 j<k It is clearly seen that the negation of the logarithm of this marginal exactly recovers the regularization terms in co-regularized multi-view learning: The first part regularizes the functional space of each 4 view, and the second part constrains that all the functions need to agree on their outputs (inversely weighted by the sum of the corresponding variances). From the GP perspective, (5) actually defines a joint multi-view prior for the m latent functions, (f 1 , . . . , f m ) ? N (0, ??1 ), where ? is a mn ? mn matrix with block-wise definition X 1 1 I, ?(j, j 0 ) = ? 2 I, j = 1, . . . , m, j 0 6= j. ?(j, j) = K?1 (6) j + ?j2 + ?k2 ?j + ?j20 k6=j Jointly with the target variable y, the marginal is (for instance for regression): ? ? m ? 2 2? X X X 1 kf j ? yk 1 1 1 kf j ? f k k f j K?1 . (7) p(y, f 1 , . . . , f m ) = exp ? j fj ? 2 + ?2 ? 2 ? 2 Z ? 2 ?j2 + ?k2 ? j j j=1 j<k This recovers the co-regularization with least square loss in its log-marginal form. 3.4 Marginal 2: The Co-Training Kernel The joint multi-view kernel defined in (6) is interesting, but it has a large dimension and is difficult to work with. A more interesting kernel can be obtained if we instead integrate out all the m latent functions in (2). This leads to a Gaussian prior p(f c ) = N (0, Kc ) for the consensus function fc , where ? ? ?1 X Kc = ? (Kj + ?j2 I)?1 ? . (8) j In the following we call Kc the co-training kernel for multi-view learning. This marginalization is very important, because it reveals the previously unclear insight of how the kernels from different views are combined together in a multi-view learning framework. This allows us to transform a multi-view learning problem into a single-view problem, and simply use the co-training kernel Kc to solve GP classification or regression. Since this marginalization is equivalent to (5), we will end up with solutions that are largely similar to any other co-regularization algorithm, but however a key difference is the Bayesian treatement contrasting previous ML-optimization methods. Additional benefits of the co-training kernel include the following: 1. The co-training kernel avoids repeated alternating optimizations over the different views f j , and directly works with a single consensus view f c . This reduces both time complexity and space complexity (only maintains Kc in memory) of multi-view learning. 2. While other alternating optimization algorithms might converge to local minima (because they optimize, not integrate), the single consensus view guarantees the global optimal solution for multiview learning. 3. Even if all the individual kernels are stationary, Kc is in general non-stationary. This is because the inverse-covariances are added and then inverted again. In a transductive setting where the data are partially labeled, the co-training kernel between labeled data is also dependent on the unlabeled data. Hence the proposed co-training kernel can be used for semi-supervised GP learning [10]. 3.5 Benefits of Bayesian Co-Training The proposed undirected graphical model provides better understandings of multi-view learning algorithms. The co-training kernel in (8) indicates that the Bayesian co-training is equivalent to single-view learning with a special (non-stationary) kernel. This is also the preferable way of working with multi-view learning since it avoids alternating optimizations. Here are some other benefits which are not mentioned before: Trust-worthiness of each view: The graphical model allows each view j to have its own levels of uncertainty (or trust-worthiness) ?j2 . In particular, a larger value of ?j2 implies less confidence on the observation of evidence provided by the j-th view. Thus when some views of the data are better at predicting the output than the others, they are weighted more while forming consensus opinions. 5 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 x(2) 6 x(2) x(2) 6 0 0 ?2 ?2 ?2 ?4 ?4 ?4 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 ?6 ?6 6 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 ?6 ?6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 6 0.5 ?0.5 ?0.5 6 0 6 0.5 x(2) x(2) x(2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 ?0.5 0 ?2 ?4 ?4 ?4 ?0 .5 0.5 ?2 0.5 0.5 ?2 0 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 6 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 6 ?6 ?6 ?4 ?2 0 x(1) 2 4 6 Figure 2: Toy examples for co-training. Big red/blue markers denote +1/ ? 1 labeled points; remaining points are unlabeled. TOP left: co-training result on two-Gaussian data with mean (2, ?2) and (?2, 2); center and right: canonical and Bayesian co-training on two-Gaussian data with mean (2, 0) and (?2, 0); BOTTOM left: XOR data with four Gaussians; center and right: Bayesian co-training and pure GP supervised learning result (with RBF kernel). Co-training is much worse than GP supervised learning in this case. All Gaussians have ? unit variance. RBF kernel uses width 1 for supervised learning and 1/ 2 for each feature in two-view learning. These uncertainties can be easily optimized in the GP framework by maximizing the marginal of output y (omitted in this paper due to space limit). Unsupervised and semi-supervised multi-view learning: The proposed graphical model also motivates new methods for unsupervised multi-view learning such as spectral clustering. While the similarity matrix of each view j is encoded in Kj , the co-training kernel Kc encodes the similarity of two data samples with multiple views, and thus can be used directly in spectral clustering. The extension to semi-supervised learning is also straightforward since Kc by definition depends on unlabeled data as well. Alternative interaction potential functions: Previous discussions about multi-view learning rely on potential definitions in (3) (which we call the consensus-based potentials), but other definitions are also possible and will lead to different co-training models. Actually, the definition in (3) has fundamental limitations and leads only to consensus-based learning, as seen from the next subsection. 3.6 Limitations of Consensus-based Potentials As mentioned before, the consensus-based potentials in (3) can be interpreted as defining a Gaussian prior (4) to f c , where the mean is a weighted average of the m individual views. This averaging indicates that the value of f c is never higher (or lower) than that of any single view. While the consensus-based potentials are intuitive and useful for many applications, they are limited for some real world problems where the evidence from different views should be additive (or enhanced) rather than averaging. For instance, when a radiologist is making a diagnostic decision about a lung cancer patient, he might look at both the CT image and the MRI image. If either of the two images gives a strong evidence of cancer, he can make decision based on a single view; if both images give an evidence of 0.6 (in a [0,1] scale), the final evidence of cancer should be higher (say, 0.8) than either of them. It?s clear that the multi-view learning in this scenario is not consensus-based. While all the previously proposed co-training and co-regularization algorithms have thus far been based on enforcing consensus between the views, in principle our graphical model allows other forms of 6 Table 1: Results for Citeseer with different numbers of training data (pos/neg). Bold face indicates best performance. Bayesian co-training is significantly better than the others (p-value 0.01 in Wilcoxon rank sum test) except in AUC with ?Train +2/-10?. M ODEL T EXT I NBOUND L INK O UTBOUND L INK T EXT +L INK C O -T RAINED GPLR BAYESIAN C O -T RAINING # T RAIN +2/-10 AUC F1 0.5725 ? 0.0180 0.1359 ? 0.0565 0.5451 ? 0.0025 0.3510 ? 0.0011 0.5550 ? 0.0119 0.3552 ? 0.0053 0.5730 ? 0.0177 0.1386 ? 0.0561 0.6459 ? 0.1034 0.4001 ? 0.2186 0.6536 ? 0.0419 0.4210 ? 0.0401 # T RAIN +4/-20 AUC F1 0.5770 ? 0.0209 0.1443 ? 0.0705 0.5479 ? 0.0035 0.3521 ? 0.0017 0.5662 ? 0.0124 0.3600 ? 0.0059 0.5782 ? 0.0218 0.1474 ? 0.0721 0.6519 ? 0.1091 0.4042 ? 0.2321 0.6880 ? 0.0300 0.4530 ? 0.0293 relationships between the views. In particular, potentials other than those in (3) should be of great interest for future research. 4 Experimental Study Toy Examples: We show some 2D toy classification problems to visualize the co-training result (in Fig. 2). Our first example is a two-Gaussian case where either feature x(1) or x(2) can fully solve the problem (top left). This is an ideal case for co-training since: 1) each single view is sufficient to train a classifier, and 2) both views are conditionally independent given the class labels. The second toy data is a bit harder since the two Gaussians are aligned to the x(1) -axis. In this case the feature x(2) is totally irrelevant to the classification problem. The canonical co-training fails here (top center) since when we add labels using the x(2) feature , noisy labels will be introduced and expanded to future training. The proposed model can handle this situation since we can adapt the weight of each view and penalize the feature x(2) (top right). Our third toy data follows an XOR shape where four Gaussians form a binary classification problem that is not linearly separable (bottom left). In this case both assumptions mentioned above are violated, and co-training failed completely (bottom center). A supervised learning model can however easily recover the non-linear underlying structure (bottom right). This indicates that the co-training kernel Kc is not suitable for this problem. Web Data: We use two sets of linked documents for our experiment. The Citeseer data set contains 3,312 entries that belong to six classes. There are three natural views: the text view consists of title and abstract of a paper; the two link views are inbound and outbound references. We pick up the largest class which contains 701 documents and test the one-vs-rest classification performance. The WebKB data set is a collection of 4,502 academic web pages manually grouped into six classes (student, faculty, staff, department, course, project). There are two views containing the text on the page and the anchor text of all inbound links, respectively. We consider the binary classification problem ?student? against ?faculty?, for which there are 1,641 and 1,119 documents, respectively. We compare the single-view learning methods (T EXT, I NBOUND L INK, etc), concatenated-view method (T EXT +L INK), and co-training methods C O -T RAINED GPLR (Co-Trained Gaussian Process Logistic Regression) and BAYESIAN C O -T RAINING. Linear kernels are used for all the competing methods. For the canonical co-training method we repeat 50 times and in each iteration add the most predictable 1 positive sample and r negative samples into the training set where r depends on the number of negative/positive ratio of each data set. Performance is evaluated using AUC score and F1 measure. We vary the number of training documents (with ratio proportional to the true positive/negative ratio), and all the co-training algorithms use all the unlabeled data in the training process. The experiments are repeated 20 times and the prediction means and standard deviations are shown in Table 1 and 2. It can be seen that for Citeseer the co-training methods are better than the supervised methods. In this cases Bayesian co-training is better than canonical co-training and achieves the best performance. For WebDB, however, canonical co-trained GPLR is not as good as supervised algorithms, and thus Bayesian co-training is also worse than supervised methods though a little better than co-trained GPLR. This is maybe because the T EXT and L INK features are not independent given the class labels (especially when two classes ?faculty? and ?staff? might share features). Canonical co-training has higher deviations than other methods due to the possibility of adding noisy labels. We have also tried other number of iterations but 50 seems to give an overall best performance. 7 Table 2: Results for WebKB with different numbers of training data (pos/neg). Bold face indicates best performance. No results are significantly better than all the others (p-value 0.01 in Wilcoxon rank sum test). M ODEL T EXT I NBOUND L INK T EXT +L INK C O -T RAINED GPLR BAYESIAN C O -T RAINING # T RAIN +2/-2 AUC F1 0.5767 ? 0.0430 0.4449 ? 0.1614 0.5211 ? 0.0017 0.5761 ? 0.0013 0.5766 ? 0.0429 0.4443 ? 0.1610 0.5624 ? 0.1058 0.5437 ? 0.1225 0.5794 ? 0.0491 0.5562 ? 0.1598 # T RAIN +4/-4 AUC F1 0.6150 ? 0.0594 0.5338 ? 0.1267 0.5210 ? 0.0019 0.5758 ? 0.0015 0.6150 ? 0.0594 0.5336 ? 0.1267 0.5959 ? 0.0927 0.5737 ? 0.1203 0.6140 ? 0.0675 0.5742 ? 0.1298 Note that the single-view learning with T EXT almost achieves the same performance as concatenated-view method. This is because the number of text features are much more than the link features (e.g., for WebKB there are 24,480 text features and only 901 link features). So these multiple views are very unbalanced and should be taken into account in co-training with different weights. Bayesian co-training provides a natural way of doing it. 5 Conclusions This paper has two principal contributions. We have proposed a graphical model for combining multi-view data, and shown that previously derived co-regularization based training algorithms maximize the likelihood of this model. In the process, we showed that these algorithms have been making an intrinsic assumption of the form p(fc , f1 , f2 , . . . , fm ) ? ?(fc , f1 )?(fc , f2 ) . . . ?(fc , fm ), even though it was not explicitly realized earlier. We also studied circumstances when this assumption proves unreasonable. Thus, our first contribution was to clarify the implicit assumptions and limitations in multi-view consensus learning in general, and co-regularization in particular. Motivated by the insights from the graphical model, our second contribution was the development of alternative algorithms for co-regularization; in particular the development of a non-stationary cotraining kernel, and the development of methods for using side-information in classification. Unlike previously published co-regularization algorithms, our approach: (a) handles naturally more than 2 views; (b) automatically learns which views of the data should be trusted more while predicting class labels; (c) shows how to leverages previously developed methods for efficiently training GP/SVM; (d) clearly explains our assumptions, what is being optimized overall, etc; (e) does not suffer from local maxima problems; (f) is less computationally demanding in terms of both speed and memory requirements. References [1] S. Dasgupta, M. Littman, and D. McAllester. PAC generalization bounds for co-training. In NIPS, 2001. [2] A. Blum and T. Mitchell. Combining labeled and unlabeled data with co-training. In COLT, 1998. [3] N. Balcan, A. Blum, and K. Yang. Co-training and expansion: Towards bridging theory and practice. In NIPS, 2004. [4] K. Nigam and R. Ghani. Analyzing the effectiveness and applicability of co-training. In Workshop on information and knowledge management, 2000. [5] U. Brefeld and T. Scheffer. Co-em support vector learning. In ICML, 2004. [6] Steffen Bickel and Tobias Scheffer. Estimation of mixture models using co-em. In ECML, 2005. [7] B. Krishnapuram, D. Williams, Y. Xue, A. Hartemink, L. Carin, and M. Figueiredo. On semi-supervised classification. In NIPS, 2004. [8] Virginia de Sa. Spectral clustering with two views. In ICML Workshop on Learning With Multiple Views, 2005. [9] C. E. Rasmussen and C. K. I. Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press, 2006. [10] Xiaojin Zhu, John Lafferty, and Zoubin Ghahramani. Semi-supervised learning: From Gaussian fields to gaussian processes. Technical report, CMU-CS-03-175, 2003. 8
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Subspace-Based Face Recognition in Analog VLSI Gonzalo Carvajal, Waldo Valenzuela and Miguel Figueroa Department of Electrical Engineering, Universidad de Concepci?n Casilla 160-C, Correo 3, Concepci?n, Chile {gcarvaja, waldovalenzuela, miguel.figueroa}@udec.cl Abstract We describe an analog-VLSI neural network for face recognition based on subspace methods. The system uses a dimensionality-reduction network whose coefficients can be either programmed or learned on-chip to perform PCA, or programmed to perform LDA. A second network with userprogrammed coefficients performs classification with Manhattan distances. The system uses on-chip compensation techniques to reduce the effects of device mismatch. Using the ORL database with 12x12-pixel images, our circuit achieves up to 85% classification performance (98% of an equivalent software implementation). 1 Introduction Subspace-based techniques for face recognition, such as Eigenfaces [1] and Fisherfaces [2], take advantage of the large redundancy present in most images to compute a lowerdimensional representation of their input data and stored patterns, and perform classification in the reduced subspace. Doing so substantially lowers the storage and computational requirements of the face-recognition task. However, most techniques for dimensionality reduction require a high computational throughput to transform images from the large input data space to the feature subspace. Therefore, software [3] even dedicated digital hardware implementations [4, 5] are too large and power-hungry to be used in highly portable systems. Analog VLSI circuits can compute using orders of magnitude less power and die area than their digital counterparts, but their performance is limited by signal offsets, parameter mismatch, charge leakage and nonlinear behavior, particularly in large-scale systems. Traditional circuit-design techniques can reduce these effects, but they increase power and area, rendering analog solutions less attractive. In this paper, we present a neural network for face recognition which implements Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) for dimensionality reduction, and Manhattan distances and a loser-take-all (LTA) circuit for classification. We can download the network weights in a chip-in-the loop configuration, or use on-chip learning to compute PCA coefficients. We use local adaptation to achieve good classification performance in the presence of device mismatch. The circuit die area is 2.2mm2 in a 0.35?m CMOS process, with an estimated power dissipation of 18mW. Using PCA reduction and a hard classifier, our network achieves up to 83% accuracy on the Olivetti Research Labs (ORL) face database [6] using 12x12-pixel images, which corresponds to 99% of the accuracy of a software implementation of the algorithm. Using LDA projections and a software Radial Basis Function (RBF) network on the hardware-computed distances yields 85% accuracy (98% of the software performance). 1 2 Eigenspace based face recognition methods The problem of face recognition consists of assigning an identity to an unknown face by comparing it to a database of labeled faces. However, the dimensionality of the input images is usually so high that performing the classification on the original data becomes prohibitively expensive. Fortunately, human faces exhibit relatively regular statistics; therefore, their intrinsic dimensionality is much lower than that of their images. Subspace methods transform the input images to reduce their dimensionality, and perform the classification task on this lower-dimensional feature space. In particular, the Eigenfaces [1] method performs dimensionality reduction using PCA, and classification by choosing the stored face with the lowest distance to the input data. Principal Components Analysis uses a linear transformation from the input space to the feature space, which preserves most of the information (in the mean-square error sense) present in the original vector. Consider a column vector x of dimension n, formed by the concatenated columns of the input image. Let the matrix Xn?N = {x1 , x2 , . . . , xN } represent a set of N images, such as the image database available for a face recognition task. PCA computes a new matrix Ym?N , with m < n: Y = W*T X (1) The columns of Y are the lower-dimensional projections of the original images in the feature space. The columns of the orthogonal transformation matrix W? are the eigenvectors associated to the m largest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the original image space. Upon presentation of a new face image, the Eigenfaces method first transforms this image into the feature space using the transformation matrix W? , and then computes the distance between the reduced image and each image class in the reference database. The image is classified with the identity of the closest reference pattern. Fisherfaces [2] performs dimensionality reduction using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). LDA takes advantage of labeled data to maximize the distance between classes in the projected subspace. Considering Xc , c = 1, . . . , Nc as subsets of X containing Ni images of the same subject, LDA defines two matrices: SW = c X X (xk ? mi )(xk ? mi )T , with mi = i=1 xk ?Xc SB = Ni 1 X xk Ni (2) k=1 c X Ni (mi ? m)(mi ? m)T (3) i=1 where SW represents the scatter (variance) within classes, and SB is the scatter between different classes. To perform the dimensionality reduction of Eqn. (1), LDA constructs W? such that its columns are the m largest eigenvectors of S?1 W SB . This requires SW to be nonsingular, which is often not the case; therefore, LDA frequently uses a PCA preprocessing stage [2]. Fisherfaces can perform classification using a hard classifier on the computed distances between the test data and stored patterns in the LDA subspace, as in Eigenfaces, or it can use a Radial Basis Function (RBF) network. RBF uses a hidden layer of neurons with Gaussian activation functions to detect clusters in the projected subspace. Traditionally, the subspace method use Euclidian distances. However, our experiments show that, as long as the dimensionality reduction preserves enough distance between classes, less computationally expensive distance metrics such as Manhattan distance are equally effective for classification. The Manhattan distance between two vectors x = [x1 . . . xn ] and y = [y1 . . . yn ] is given by: n X d= |xi ? yi | (4) i=1 2 distances 1 n test data y dimensionality reduction 2 ... input image x database m LTA face ID k (a) Architecture y1 ... x1 c y2 b1 W1,1 ym ... + ... Wn,1 b2 ... + f1,i data f 2,i base _ abs () _ abs () + dist i ... W1,m y1 ... xn ym _ fn,i Wn,m (b) Projection network abs () (c) Distance computation Figure 1: Face-recognition hardware. (a) Architecture. A dimensionality-reduction network projects a n-dimensional image onto m dimensions, and loser-take-all (LTA) circuit labels the image by choosing the nearest stored face in the reduced space. (b) The dimensionality reduction network is an array of linear combiners with weights that have been pre-computed or learned on chip. (c) The distance circuit computes the Manhattan distance between the m projections of the test image and the stored face database. In our current implementation, n = 144, m = 39, and k = 40. 3 Hardware Implementation Fig. 1(a) shows the architecture of our face-recognition network. It follows the signal flow described in Section 2, where the n-dimensional test image x is first projected onto the mdimensional feature space (test data y) using an array of m n-input analog linear combiners, shown in Fig. 1(b). The constant input c is a bias used to compensate for the offset introduced by the analog multipliers. The network also stores the m projections of the database face set (the training set) in an array of analog memories. A distance computation block, shown in Fig. 1(c), computes the Manhattan distance between each labeled element in the stored training set and the reduced test data y. A loser-take-all (LTA) circuit, currently implemented in software, selects the smallest distance and labels the test image with the selected class. The linear combiners are based on the synapse shown in Fig. 2(a). An analog Gilbert multiplier computes the product of each pixel of the input image, represented as a differential voltage, and the local synaptic weight. An accurate transformation requires a multiplier response that is linear in the pixel value, therefore we designed the multipliers to maximize the linearity of that input. Device mismatch introduces offsets and gain variance across different multipliers in the network; we describe the calibration techniques used to compensate for these effects in Section 4. The multipliers provide a differential current output, therefore we can add them across a single neuron by connecting them to common wires. Each synaptic weight is stored in an analog nonvolatile memory cell [7] based on floatinggate transistors, shown also in Fig. 2(a). The cell features linear weight-updates based on digital pulses applied to the terminals inc and dec. Using local calibration, also based on floating gates, we independently tune each synapse to achieve symmetric updates in the 3 Vx+ Vx _ input Gilbert Multiplier inc database element I- FG Mem Cell Vw_ Vw+ dec From PCA I+ FG Memory Cell inc Iy+ Crossbar switch If+ select If- dec Iabs + Iabs - Current Comp . sum weight Iy- sum (a) Hardware synapse (b) Distance circuit Figure 2: (a) The synapse is comprised by a Gilbert multiplier and a nonvolatile analog memory cell with local calibration. The output currents are summed across each neuron. (b) Each component of the Manhattan distance is computed as the subtraction of the corresponding principal components and an optional inversion based on the sign of the result. The output currents are summed across all components. presence of device mismatch, and to make the update rates uniform across the entire chip. As a result, the resolution of the memory cell exceeds 12 bits in a 0.35?m CMOS process. Fig. 2(b) depicts the circuit used to compute the Manhattan distance between the test data and the stored patterns. Each projection of the training set is stored as a current in an analog memory cell, simpler and smaller than the cell used in the dimensionality reduction network, and written using a self-limiting write process. The difference between each projection of the pattern and the test input is computed by inverting the polarity of one of the signals and adding the currents. To compute the absolute value, a current comparator based on a simple transconductance amplifier determines the sign of the result and uses a 2 ? 2 crossbar switch to invert the polarity of the outputs if needed. As stated in Section 5, our current implementation considers 12?12-pixel images (n = 144 in Fig. 1). We compute 39 projections using PCA and LDA, and perform the classification using 40 Manhattan-distance units on the 39-dimensional projections. The next section analyzes the effects of device mismatch on the dimensionality-reduction network. 4 Analog implementation of dimensionality reduction networks The arithmetic distortions introduced by the nonlinear transfer function of the analog multipliers, coupled with the effects of device mismatch (offsets and gains), affect the accuracy of the operations performed by the reduction network and become the limiting factor in the classification performance. In order to achieve good performance, we must calibrate the network to compensate for the effect of these limitations. In this section, we analyze and design solutions for two different cases. First, we consider the case when a computer performs PCA or LDA to determine W? off-line, and downloads the weights onto the chip. Second, we analyze the performance of adaptive on-chip computation of PCA using a Hebbian-learning algorithm. In both cases, we design mechanisms that use local on-chip adaptation to compensate for the offsets and gain variances introduced by device mismatch, thus improving classification performance. In the following analysis we assume that the inputs have zero mean and have been normalized. Also, for simplicity, we assume that the inputs and weights are operating within the linear range of the multipliers. We remove these assumptions when presenting experimental results. Thus, our analysis uses a simplified model of the analog multipliers given by: o = (ax x + ?x )(aw w + ?w ) (5) where o is the multiplier output, x and w are the inputs, ?x and ?w represent the input offsets, and ax and aw are the multiplier gains associated with each input. These parameters vary across different multipliers due to device mismatch and are unknown at design time, and difficult to determine even after circuit fabrication. 4 4.1 Dimensionality reduction with precomputed weights Let us consider an analog linear combiner such as the one depicted in Fig. 1(b), which computes the first projection y of x, using the first column w? of the software precomputed optimal transformation W? of Eqn. (1). Using the simplified multiplier linear model of Eqn. (5), the linear combiner computes the first projection as: ? y = xT (Ax Aw w? + Ax ? w ) + ? T (6) x (Aw w + ?w ) where Ax = diag([ax1 . . . axn ]), Aw = diag([aw1 . . . awn ]), ? x = [?x1 . . . ?xn ]T , and ? w = [?w1 . . . ?wn ]T represent the gains and offsets of each multiplier. Eqn. (6) shows that device mismatch has two effects on the output: the first term modifies the effective weight value of the network, and the second term represents an offset added to the output (w? is a constant). Replacing w? with an adaptive version wk , the structure becomes a classic adaptive linear combiner which, using the optimal weights to generate a reference output signal, can be trained using the well known Least-Mean Squares (LMS) algorithm. Adding a bias synapse b with constant input c and training the network with LMS, the weights converge to [7]: w? ? = (Ax Aw )?1 (w? ? Ax ? w ) ? ?(? T x (Aw w (7) ?1 + ?w ) + c?b )(cab ) (8) b = where ab and ?b are the gain and offset of the analog multiplier associated to the bias input c. These weight values fully compensate for the effects of gain mismatch and offsets. In our hardware implementation, we use m adaptive linear combiners to compute every projection in the feature space, and calibrate these circuits using on-chip LMS local adaptation to compute and store the optimal weight values of Eqns. (7) and (8), achieving a good approximation of the optimal output Y. Fig. 3(a) shows our analog-VLSI implementation of LMS. We train the weight values in the memory cells by providing inputs and a reference output to each linear combiner, and use an on-chip pulse-based compact implementation of the LMS learning rule. In order to improve the convergence of the algorithm, we draw the inputs from a zero-mean random Gaussian distribution. Thus, the performance of the dimensionality reduction network is ultimately limited by the resolution of the memory cells, the reference noise, the learning rate of the LMS training stage and linearity of the multipliers. This last effect can be controlled by restricting the dynamic range of the input to linear range of the multipliers. To measure the accuracy of our implementation, we computed (in software) the first 10 principal components of one half the Olivetti Research Labs (ORL) face database, reduced to 12x12 pixels, and used our on-chip implementation of LMS to train the hardware network to learn the coefficients. We then measured the output of the circuit on the other half of the database. Fig. 3(b) plots the RMS value of the error between the circuit output and the software results, normalized to the RMS value of each principal component. The figure also shows the error when we wrote the coefficients onto the circuit in open-loop, without using LMS. In this case, offset and gain mismatch completely obscure the information present in the signal. LMS training compensates for these effects, and reduces the error energy to between 0.25% and 1% of the energy of the signal. A different experiment (not shown) computing LDA coefficients yields equivalent results. 4.2 On-chip PCA computation In some cases, such as when the face-recognition network is integrated with a camera on a single chip, it may be necessary to train the face database on-chip. It is not practical for the chip to include the hardware resources to compute the optimal weights from the eigenvalue analysis of the training set?s covariance matrix, therefore we compute them on chip using the standard Generalized Hebbian Algorithm (GHA). The computation of the first principal component and the learning rule to update the weights at time k are: yk = xTk wk (9) ?wk = ?yk (xk ? x0 k ) (10) x0 k = yk wk (11) 5 Norm. RMS error (log scale) inc LMS wi dec learning rule xi to adder X _ T yref =x w* + + y from output noise 4 10 No circuit calibration On?chip LMS 2 10 0 10 ?2 10 ?4 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Principal Component (a) LMS computation (b) Output error of PCA network Figure 3: Training the PCA network with LMS. (a) Block diagram of our LMS implementation. We present random inputs to each linear combiner, and provide a reference output. A pulse-based implementation of the LMS learning rule updates the memory cells. (b) RMS value of the error for the first 10 principal components, normalized to the RMS value of each PC. where ? is the learning rate of the algorithm and x0 k is the reconstruction of the input xk from the first principal component. The distortion introduced to the output by gain mismatch and offsets in Eqn. (9) is identical to Eqn. (6). Similarly to LMS, it is easy to show that a bias input c connected to a synapse b with an anti-Hebbian learning rule ?bk = ?b cyk removes the constant offset added to the output. Therefore, we can eliminate the second term of Eqn. (6) and express the output as: T y k = xT k (Ax Aw wk + Ax ? w ) = xk wk (12) 0 Using analog multipliers to compute x k , we obtain: x0 k = y k (Ay A0w wk + Ay ? 0w ) + ? y (A0w wk + ? 0w ) A0w , (13) ? 0w are the gains and offsets associated with the multipliers used ? y , and where Ay , to compute yk wk . Replacing Eqns. (12) and (13) in Eqn. (10), we determine the effective learning rule modified by device mismatch: ?wk = ?y k (x ? y k (Ay A0w wk + Ay ? 0w )) = ?y k (x ? y k w0k ) If we use the same analog multipliers to compute y k and and ? w = ? 0w , and the learning rule becomes: ?wk = ?y k (x ? y k wk ) x0 k, (14) then Ax = Ay , Aw = A0w , (15) where y k and wk are the modified weight and output defined in Eqn. (12). Eqn. (15) is equivalent to the original learning rule in Eqn. (10), but with a new weight vector modified by device mismatch. A convergence analysis for Eqn. (15) is complicated, but by analogy to LMS we can show that the weights indeed converge to the same values given in Eqns. (7) and (8), which compensate for the effects of gain mismatch and offset. Simulation results verify this assumption. Note that this will only be the case if we use the same hardware multipliers to compute yk and x0 k . The analysis extends naturally to the higher-order principal components. Fig. 4(a) shows our implementation of the GHA learning rule. The multiplexer shares the analog multipliers between the computation of yk and x0 k , and is controlled by a digital signal that alternates its value during the computation and adaptation phases of the algorithm. Unlike LMS, GHA trains the algorithm using the images from the training set. Fig. 4(b) shows the normalized RMS value of the output error for the first 10 principal components. Comparing it to Fig. 3(b), the error is significantly higher than LMS, moving between 4% and 35% of the enery of the output. This higher error is due in part to the nonlinear multiply in the computation of x0 k , and because there is a strong dependency between the learning rates used to update the bias synapse and the other weights in the network. However, as Section 5 shows, this error does not translate into a large degradation in the face classification performance. 6 xi M U X Norm. RMS error (log scale) Compute / update inc GHA wi learning rule dec X to adder y from output 4 10 No circuit calibration On?chip GHA 2 10 0 10 ?2 10 ?4 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Principal Component (a) GHA computation (b) Output error of PCA network Figure 4: Training the PCA network with GHA. (a) We reuse the multiplier to compute x0 k and use a pulse-based implementation of the GHA rule. (b) RMS value of the error for the first 10 principal components, normalized to the RMS value of each PC. 5 Classification Results We designed and fabricated arithmetic circuits for the building blocks described in the previous sections using a 0.35?m CMOS process, including analog memory cells, multipliers, and weight-update rules for LMS and GHA. We characterized these circuits in the lab and built a software emulator that allows us to test the static performance of different network configurations with less than 0.5% error. We simulated the LTA circuit in software. Using the emulator, we tested the performance of the face-recognition network on the Olivetti Research Labs (ORL) database, consisting on 10 photos of each of 40 total subjects. We used 5 random photos of each subject for the training set and 5 for testing. Limitations in our circuit emulator forced us to reduce the images to 12 ? 12 pixels. The estimated power consumption of the circuit with these 144 inputs and 39 projections is 18mW (540nJ per classification with 30?s settling time), and the layout area is 2.2mm2 . These numbers represent a 2?5x reduction in area and more than 100x reduction in power compated to standard cell-based digital implementations [4, 5]. Fig. 5(a) shows the classification performance of the network using PCA for dimensionality reduction, versus the number of principal components in the subspace. First, we tested the network using PCA for dimensionality reduction. The figure shows the performance of a software implementation of PCA with Euclidean distances, hardware PCA trained with LMS and software-computed weights, and hardware PCA trained with on-chip GHA. Both hardware implementations use Manhattan distances and a software LTA. The plots show the mean of the classification accuracy computed for each of the 40 individuals in the database. The error bars show one standard deviation above and below the mean. The software implementation peaks at 84% classification accuracy, while the hardware LMS and GHA implementations peak at 83% and 79%, respectively. Note that GHA performs only slightly worse than LMS, mainly because we compute and store the principal components of the training set in the face database using the same PCA network used to reduce the dimensionality of the test images, which helps to preserve the distance between classes in the feature space. The standard deviations are similar in all cases. Using an uncalibrated network brings the performance below 5%, mainly due to the offsets in the multipliers which change the PCA projection and take the signals outside of their nominal operating range. Fig. 5(a) shows the classification results using the LDA in the dimensionality reduction network. The results are slightly better than PCA, and the error bars show also a lower variance. The performance of the software implementation of LDA and an a hard-classifier based on Euclidean distances is 83%. The LMS-trained hardware network with Manhattan distances and a software LTA yields 82%. Replacing the LTA with a software RBF classifier, the chip achieves 85% classification performance, while the software implementation (not shown) peaks at 87%. Using 40x40-pixel images and 39 projections, the software LDA network with RBF achieves more than 98% classification accuracy. Therefore, our current results are limited by the resolution of the input images. 7 Classification Performance Classification Performance 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 PCA+dist (SW) PCA with LMS+ dist (HW) GHA+dist (HW) 0.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of Principal Componentes 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 LDA+dist+LTA (SW) LDA+dist+LTA (HW) LDA+dist (HW)+RBF (SW) 0.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Number of LDA Projections (a) Classification performance for PCA (b) Classification performance for LDA Figure 5: Classification performance for a 12 ? 12?pixel version of the ORL database versus number of projections, using PCA and LDA for dimensionality reduction. Computing coefficients off-chip and writing them on the chip using LMS yields between 83% and 85% classification performance for PCA and LDA, respectively. This represents 98%-99% of the performance of a software implementation. 6 Conclusions We presented an analog-VLSI network for face-recognition using subspace methods. We analyzed the effects of device mismatch on the performance of the dimensionality-reduction network and tested two techniques based on local adaptation which compensate for gain mismatch and offsets. We showed that using LMS to train the network on precomputed coefficients to perform PCA or LDA performs better than using GHA to learn PCA coefficients on chip. Ultimately, both techniques perform similarly in the face-classification task with the ORL database, achieving a classification performance of 83%-85% (98%-99% of a software implementation of the algorithms). Simulation results show that the performance is currently limited by the resolution of the input images. We are currently working on the integration LTA and RBF classifiers on chip, and on support of higher-dimensional inputs. Acknowledgments This work was funded by the Chilean government through FONDECYT grant No. 1070485. The authors would like to thank Dr. Seth Bridges for his valuable contribution to this work. References [1] M. Turk and A. Pentland. Face Recognition Using Eigenfaces. Proc. of IEEE Conf. on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, pages 586?591, 1991. [2] Peter Belhumeur, Joao Hespanha, and David J. Kriegman. Eigenfaces vs. Fisherfaces: Recognition Using Class Specific Linear Projection". IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 19(7):711?720, 1997. [3] A. U. Batur, B. E. Flinchbaugh, and M. H. Hayes IIl. A DSP-Based approach for the implementation of face recognition algorithms. In IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, 2003. Proceedings. (ICASSP ?03), volume 2, pages 253?256, 2003. [4] N. Shams, I. Hosseini, M. Sadri, and E. Azarnasab. Low Cost FPGA-Based Highly Accurate Face Recognition System Using Combined Wavelets Withs Subspace Methods. In IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, 2006, pages 2077?2080, 2006. [5] C. S. S. Prasanna, N. Sudha, and V. Kamakoti. A Principal Component Neural Network-Based Face Recognition System and Its ASIC Implementation. In VLSI Design, pages 795?798, 2005. [6] Ferdinando Samaria and Andy Harter. Parameterisation of a Stochastic Model for Human Face Identification. In IEEE Workshop on Applications of Computer Vision, Sarasota (Florida), December 1994. [7] Miguel Figueroa, Esteban Matamala, Gonzalo Carvajal, and Seth Bridges. Adaptive Signal Processing in Mixed-Signal VLSI with Anti-Hebbian Learning. In IEEE Computer Society Annual Symposium on VLSI, pages 133?138, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2006. IEEE. 8
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Blind channel identification for speech dereverberation using l1-norm sparse learning ? Yuanqing Lin? , Jingdong Chen? , Youngmoo Kim? , Daniel D. Lee? GRASP Laboratory, Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania ? Bell Laboratories, Alcatel-Lucent ? Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Drexel University Abstract Speech dereverberation remains an open problem after more than three decades of research. The most challenging step in speech dereverberation is blind channel identification (BCI). Although many BCI approaches have been developed, their performance is still far from satisfactory for practical applications. The main difficulty in BCI lies in finding an appropriate acoustic model, which not only can effectively resolve solution degeneracies due to the lack of knowledge of the source, but also robustly models real acoustic environments. This paper proposes a sparse acoustic room impulse response (RIR) model for BCI, that is, an acoustic RIR can be modeled by a sparse FIR filter. Under this model, we show how to formulate the BCI of a single-input multiple-output (SIMO) system into a l1 norm regularized least squares (LS) problem, which is convex and can be solved efficiently with guaranteed global convergence. The sparseness of solutions is controlled by l1 -norm regularization parameters. We propose a sparse learning scheme that infers the optimal l1 -norm regularization parameters directly from microphone observations under a Bayesian framework. Our results show that the proposed approach is effective and robust, and it yields source estimates in real acoustic environments with high fidelity to anechoic chamber measurements. 1 Introduction Speech dereverberation, which may be viewed as a denoising technique, is crucial for many speech related applications, such as hands-free teleconferencing and automatic speech recognition. It is a challenging signal processing task and remains an open problem after more than three decades of research. Although many approaches [1] have been developed for speech dereverberation, blind channel identification (BCI) is believed to be the key to thoroughly solving the dereverberation problem. Most BCI approaches rely on source statistics (higher order statistics [2] or statistics of LPC coefficients [3]), or spatial difference among multiple channels [4] for resolving solution degeneracies due to the lack of knowledge of the source. The performance of these approaches depends on how well they model real acoustic systems (mainly sources and channels). The BCI approaches using source statistics need a long sequence of data to build up the statistics, and their performance often degrades significantly in real acoustic environments where acoustic systems are time-varying and only approximately time-invariant during a short time window. Besides the data efficiency issue, there are some other difficulties in the BCI approaches using source statistics, for example, non-stationarity of a speech source, whitening side effect, and non-minimum phase of a filter [2]. In contrast, the BCI approaches exploiting channel spatial difference are blind to the source, and thus they avoid those difficulties arising in assuming source statistics. Unfortunately, these approaches are often too ill-conditioned to tolerate even a very small amount of ambient noise. In general, BCI for speech dereverberation is an active research area, and the main challenge is how to build an effective acoustic model that not only can resolve solution degeneracies due to the lack of knowledge of the source, but also robustly models real acoustic environments. 1 To address the challenge, this paper proposes a sparse acoustic room impulse response (RIR) model for BCI, that is, an acoustic RIR can be modeled by a sparse FIR filter. The sparse RIR model is theoretically sound [5], and it has been shown to be useful for estimating RIRs in real acoustic environments when the source is given a priori [6]. In this paper, the sparse RIR model is incorporated with channel spatial difference, resulting a blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach for a single-input multiple-output (SIMO) acoustic system. The BSCI approach aims to resolve some of the difficulties in conventional BCI approaches. It is blind to the source and therefore avoids the difficulties arising in assuming source statistics. Meanwhile, the BSCI approach is expected to be robust to ambient noise. It has been shown that, when the source is given a priori [7], the prior knowledge about sparse RIRs plays an important role in robustly estimating RIRs in noisy acoustic environments. Furthermore, the statistics describing the sparseness of RIRs are governed by acoustic room characteristics, and thus they are close to be stationary with respect to a specific room. This is advantageous in terms of both learning the statistics and applying them in channel identification. Based on the cross relation formulation [4] of BCI, this paper develops a BSCI algorithm that incorporates the sparse RIR model. Our choice for enforcing sparsity is l1 -norm regularization [8], which has been the driving force for many emerging fields in signal processing, such as sparse coding and compressive sensing. In the context of BCI, two important issues need to be addressed when using l1 -norm regularization. First, the existing cross relation formulation for BCI is nonconvex, and directly enforcing l1 -norm regularization will result in an intractable optimization. Second, l1 -norm regularization parameters are critical for deriving correct solutions, and their improper setting may lead to totally irrelevant solutions. To address these two issues, this paper shows how to formulate the BCI of a SIMO system into a convex optimization, indeed an unconstrained least squares (LS) problem, which provides a flexible platform for incorporating l1 -norm regularization; it also shows how to infer the optimal l1 -norm regularization parameters directly from microphone observations under a Bayesian framework. We evaluate the proposed BSCI approach using both simulations and experiments in real acoustic environments. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed sparse RIR model in resolving solution degeneracies, and they show that the BSCI approach is able to robustly and accurately identify filters from noisy microphone observations. When applied to speech dereverberation in real acoustic environments, the BSCI approach yields source estimates with high fidelity to anechoic chamber measurements. All of these demonstrate that the BSCI approach has the potential for solving the difficult speech dereverberation problem. 2 Blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) 2.1 Previous work Our BSCI approach is based on the cross relation formulation for blind SIMO channel identification [4]. In a one-speaker two-microphone system, the microphone signals at time k can be written as: xi (k) = s(k) ? hi + ni (k), i = 1, 2, (1) where ? denotes linear convolution, s(k) is a source signal, hi represents the channel impulse response between the source and the ith microphone, and ni (k) is ambient noise. The cross relation formulation is based on a clever observation, x2 (k) ? h1 = x1 (k) ? h2 = s(k) ? h1 ? h2 , if the microphone signals are noiseless [4]. Then, without requiring any knowledge from the source signal, the channel filters can be identified by minimizing the squared cross relation error. In matrix-vector form, the optimization can be written as h?1 , h?2 = argmin kh1 k2 +kh 2 k2 =1 1 kX2 h1 ? X1 h2 k2 2 (2) where Xi is the (N + L ? 1) ? L convolution Toeplitz matrix whose first row and first column are [xi (k ? N + 1), 0, . . . , 0] and [xi (k ? N + 1), xi (k ? N + 2), ..., xi (k), 0, . . . , 0]T , respectively, N is the microphone signal length, L is the filter length, hi (i = 1, 2) are L ? 1 vectors representing the filters, k ? k denotes l2 -norm, and the constraint is to avoid the trivial zero solution. It is easy to see that the above optimization is a minimum eigenvalue problem, and it can be solved by eigenvalue decomposition. As shown in [4], the eigenvalue decomposition approach finds the true solution within a constant time delay and a constant scalar factor when 1) the system is noiseless; 2) the two 2 filters are co-prime (namely, no common zeros); and 3) the system is sufficiently excited (i.e., the source needs to have enough frequency bands). Unfortunately, the eigenvalue decomposition approach has not been demonstrated to be useful for speech dereverberation in real acoustic environments. This is because the conditions for finding true solutions are difficult to sustain. First, microphone signals in real acoustic environments are always immersed in excessive ambient noise (such as air-conditioning noise), and thus the noiseless assumption is never true. Second, it requires precise information about filter order for the filters to be co-prime, however, the filter order itself is hard to compute accurately since the filters modeling RIRs are often thousands of taps long. As a result, eigenvalue decomposition approach is often ill-conditioned and very sensitive to even a very small amount of ambient noise. Our proposed sparse RIR model aims to alleviate those difficulties. Under the sparse RIR model, sparsity regularization automatically determines filter order since surplus filter coefficients are forced to be zero. Furthermore, previous work [7] has demonstrated that, when the source is given a priori, sparsity regularization plays an important role in robustly estimating RIRs in noisy acoustic environments. In order to exploit the sparse RIR model, we first formulate the BCI using cross relation into a convex optimization, which will provide a flexible platform for enforcing l1 -norm sparsity regularization. 2.2 Convex formulation The optimization in Eq. 2 is nonconvex because its domain, kh1 k2 + kh2 k2 = 1, is nonconvex. We propose to replace it with a convex singleton linear constraint, and the optimization becomes 1 h?1 , h?2 = argmin kX2 h1 ? X1 h2 k2 h1 (l)=1 2 (3) where h1 (l) is the lth element of filter h1 . It is easy to see that, when microphone signals are noiseless, the optimizations in Eqs. 2 and 3 yield equivalent solutions within a constant time delay and a constant scalar factor. Because the optimization is a minimization, h1 (l) tends to align with the largest coefficient in filter h1 , which normally is the coefficient corresponding to the direct path. Consequently, the singleton linear constraint removes two degrees of freedom in filter estimates: a constant time delay (by fixing l) and a constant scalar factor [by fixing h1 (l) = 1]. The choice of l (0 ? l ? L ? 1) is arbitrary as long as the direct path in filter h2 is no more than l samples earlier than the one in filter h1 . The new formulation in Eq. 3 has many advantages. It is convex and indeed an unconstrained LS problem since the singleton linear constraint can be easily substituted into the objective function. Furthermore, the new LS formulation is more robust to ambient noise than the eigenvalue decomposition approach in Eq. 2. This can be better viewed in the frequency domain. Because the squared cross relation error (the objective function in Eqs. 2 and 3) is weighted in the frequency domain by the power spectrum density of a common source, the total filter energy constraint in Eq. 2 may be filled with less significant frequency bands which contribute little to the source and are weighted less in the objective function. As a result, the eigenvalue decomposition approach is very sensitive to noise. In contrast, the singleton linear constraint in Eq. 3 has much less coupling in filter energy allocation, and the new LS approach is more robust to ambient noise. Then, the BSCI approach is to incorporate the LS formulation with l1 -norm sparsity regularization, and the optimization becomes L?1 X 1 [|h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|] h?1 , h?2 = argmin kX2 h1 ? X1 h2 k2 + ?? h1 (l)=1 2 j=0 (4) where ?? is a nonnegative scalar regularization parameter that balances the preference between the squared cross relation error and the sparseness of solutions described by their l1 -norm. The setting of ?? is critical for deriving appropriate solutions, and we will show how to compute its optimal setting in a Bayesian framework in Section 2.3. Given a ?? , the optimization in Eq. 4 is convex and can be solved by various methods with guaranteed global convergence. We implemented the Mehrotra predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method [9], which is known to yield better search directions than the Newton?s method. Our implementation usually solves the optimization in Eq. 4 with extreme accuracy (relative duality gap less than 10?14 ) in less than 20 iterations. 3 2.3 Bayesian l1 -norm sparse learning for blind channel identification The l1 -norm regularization parameter ?? in Eq. 4 is critical for deriving appropriately sparse solutions. How to determine its optimal setting is still an open research topic. A recent development is to solve the optimization in Eq. 4 with respect to all possible values of ?? [10], and cross-validation is then employed to find an appropriate solution. However, it is not easy to obtain extra data for crossvalidation in BCI since real acoustic environments are often time-varying. In this study, we develop a Bayesian framework for inferring the optimal regularization parameters for the BSCI formulation in Eq. 4. A similar Bayesian framework can be found in [7], where the source was assumed to be known a priori. The optimization in Eq. 4 is a maximum-a-posteriori estimation under the following probabilistic assumptions    1 1 2 exp ? kX h ? X h k , (5) P X2 h1 ? X1 h2 |? 2 , h1 , h2 = 2 1 1 2 2? 2 (2?? 2 )(N +L?1)/2 ? ?  2L L?1 ? ? X ? exp ?? [|h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|] (6) P (h1 , h2 |?) = ? ? 2 j=0 where the cross relation error is an I.I.D. zero-mean Gaussian with variance ? 2 , and the filter coefficients are governed by a Laplacian sparse prior with the scalar parameter ?. Then, the regularization parameter ?? in Eq. 4 can be written as ?? = ? 2 ?. (7) When the ambient noise [n1 (k) and n2 (k) in Eq. 1] is an I.I.D. zero-mean Gaussian with variance ?02 , the parameter ? 2 can be approximately written as ? 2 = ?02 (kh1 k2 + kh2 k2 ), (8) because x2 (k) ? h1 ? x1 (k) ? h2 = n2 (k) ? h1 ? n1 (k) ? h2 . The above form of ? 2 is only an approximation because the cross relation error is temporally correlated through the convolution. Nevertheless, since the cross relation error is the result of the convolutive mixing, its distribution will be close to the Gaussian with its variance described by Eq. 8 according to the central limit theorem. We choose to estimate the ambient noise level (?02 ) directly from microphone observations via restricted maximum likelihood [11]: 2 N ?1 X X 1 kxi (k) ? s(k) ? hi k2 (9) ?02 = min s,h1 ,h2 N ? L ? 1 i=1 k=0 where the denominator N ? L ? 1 (but not 2N ) accounts for the loss of the degrees of freedom during the optimization. The above minimization is solved by coordinate descent alternatively with respect to the source and the filters. It is initialized with the LS solution by Eq. 3 and often able to yield a good ?02 estimate in a few iterations. Note that each iteration can be computed efficiently in the frequency domain. Meanwhile, the parameter ? can be computed by 2L ? = PL?1 , (10) j=0 [|h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|] as a result of finding the optimal Laplacian distribution given its sufficient statistics. With the Eqs. 8 and 10, finding the optimal regularization parameters becomes computing the statisP tics of filters, kh1 k2 + kh2 k2 and L?1 j=0 [|h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|]. These statistics are closely related to acoustic room characteristics and may be computed from them if they are known a priori. For example, the reverberation time of a room defines how fast echoes decay ?60 dB, and it can be used to compute the filter statistics. More generally, we choose to compute the statistics directly from microphone observations R in the Baysian framework by maximizing the marginal likelihood, P (X2 h1 ? X1 h2 |? 2 , ?) = h1 (l)=1 P (X2 h1 ? X1 h2 , h1 , h2 |? 2 , ?)dh1 dh2 . The optimization is through Expectation-Maximization (EM) updates [7]: Z 2 2 (kh1 k2 + kh2 k2 )Q(h1 , h2 )dh1 dh2 (11) ? ?? ?0 h(l)=1 ? ?? 2L PL?1 h(l)=1 ( j=0 |h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|)Q(h1 , h2 )dh1 dh2 R 4 (12) where h1 and h2 are treated as hidden variables, ? 2 and ? are parameters, and Q(h1 , h2 ) ? PL?1 exp{? 2?1 2 kX2 h1 ? X1 h2 k2 ? ?[ j=0 |h1 (j)| + |h2 (j)|]} is the probability distribution of h1 and h2 given the current estimate of ? 2 and ?. The integrals in Eqs. 11 and 12 can be computed using the variational scheme described in [7]. The EM updates often converge to a good estimate of ? 2 and ? in a few iterations. Moreover, since the filter statistics are relatively stationary for a specified room, the Bayesian inference may be carried out off-line and only once if the room conditions stay the same. After the filters are identified by BCI approaches, the source can be computed by various methods [12]. We choose to estimate the source by the following optimization s? = argmin s 2 N ?1 X X kxi (k) ? s(k) ? hi k2 , (13) i=1 k=0 which will yield maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation if the filter estimates are accurate. 3 Simulations and Experiments 3.1 Simulations 3.1.1 Simulations with artificial RIRs We first employ a simulated example to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed sparse RIR model for BCI. In the simulation, we used a speech sequence of 1024 samples (with 16 kHz sampling rate) as the source (s) and simulated two 16-sample FIR filters (h1 and h2 ). The filter h1 had nonzero elements only at indices 0, 2, and 12 with amplitudes of 1, -0.7, and 0.5, respectively; the filter h2 had nonzero elements only at indices 2, 6, 8, and 10 with amplitudes of 1, -0.6, 0.6, and 0.4, respectively. Notice that both h1 and h2 are sparse. Then the simulated microphone observations (x1 and x2 ) were computed by Eq. 1 with the ambient noise being real noise recorded in a classroom. The noise was scaled so that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the microphone signals was approximately 20 dB. Because a big portion of the noise (mainly air-conditioning noise) was at low frequency, the microphone observations were high-passed with a cut-off frequency of 100 Hz before they were fed to BCI algorithms. In the BSCI algorithm, the l1 -norm regularization parameters, ? 2 and ?, were estimated in the Bayesian framework using the update rules given in Eqs. 11 and 12. Figure 1 shows the filters identified by different BCI approaches. Compared to the conventional eigenvalue decomposition method (Eq. 2), the new convex LS approach (Eq. 3) is more robust to ambient noise and yielded better filter estimates even though the estimates still seem to be convolved by a common filter. The proposed BSCI approach (Eq. 4) yielded filter estimates that are almost identical to the true ones. It is evident that the proposed sparse RIR model played a crucial role in robustly and accurately identifying filters in blind manners. The robustness and accuracy gained by the BSCI approach will become essential when the filters are thousands of taps long in real acoustic environments. 3.1.2 Simulations with measured RIRs Here we employ simulations using RIRs measured in real rooms to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed BSCI approach for speech dereverberation. Its performance is compared to the beamforming, the eigenvalue decomposition (Eq. 2), and the LS (Eq. 3) approaches. In the simulation, the source sequence (s) was a sentence of speech (approximately 1.5 seconds), and the filters (h1 and h2 ) were two measured RIRs from York MARDY database (http://www.commsp.ee.ic.ac.uk/ sap/mardy.htm) but down-sampled to 16 kHz (from originally 48 kHz). The original filters in the database were not sparse, but they had many tiny coefficients which were in the range of measurement uncertainty. To make the simulated filters sparse, we simply zeroed out those coefficients whose amplitudes were less than 2% of the maximum. Finally, we truncated the filters to have length of 2048 since there were very few nonzero coefficients after that. With the simulated source and filters, we then computed microphone observations using Eq. 1 with ambient noise being real noise recorded in a classroom. For testing the robustness of different BCI algorithms, the ambient noise was scaled to different levels so that the SNRs varied from 60 dB to 10 dB. Similar to the previous simulations, the simulated observations were high-passed with a cutoff 5 1 Estimated True 1 Eig? 0.5 decomp 0 h1 h 2 0 ?0.5 LS 5 10 15 1 1 0 0 ?1 BSCI ?1 0 0 5 10 ?1 15 1 1 0 0 ?1 0 5 10 Time (sample) ?1 15 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 5 10 Time (sample) 15 0 Figure 1: Identified filters by three different BCI approaches in a simulated example: the eigenvalue decomposition approach (denoted as eig-decomp) in Eq. 2, the LS approach in Eq. 3, and the blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach in Eq. 4. The solid-dot lines represent the estimated filters, and the dot-square lines indicate the true filters within a constant time delay and a constant scalar factor. Filter estimates Source estimates 100 Normalized correlation (%) Normalized correlation (%) 100 80 60 eigen?decomp LS BSCI 40 20 80 60 40 eigen?decomp beamforming 20 LS BSCI 0 ?60 ?50 ?40 ?30 ?20 Noise level (dB) 0 ?60 ?10 ?50 ?40 ?30 ?20 Noise level (dB) ?10 Figure 2: The simulation results using measured real RIRs. The normalized correlation (defined in Eq. 14) of the estimates were computed with respect to their true values. The filters were identified by three different approaches: the eigenvalue decomposition approach (denoted as eigen-decomp) in Eq. 2 , the LS approach in Eq. 3, and the blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach in Eq. 4. After the filters were identified, the source was estimated by Eq. 13. The source estimated by beamforming is also presented as a baseline reference. frequency of 100 Hz before they were fed to different BCI algorithms. In the BSCI approach, the l1 -norm regularization parameters were iteratively computed using the updates in Eqs. 11 and 12. After filters were identified, the source was estimated using Eq. 13. Because both filter and source estimates by BCI algorithms are within a constant time delay and a constant scalar factor, we use normalized correlation for evaluating the estimates. Let ? s and s0 denote an estimated source and the true source, respectively, then the normalized correlation C(? s, s0 ) is defined as P s?(k ? m)s0 (k) C(? s, s0 ) = max k (14) m k? skks0 k where m and k are sample indices, and k ? k denotes l2 -norm. It is easy to see that, the normalized correlation is between 0% and 100%: it is equal to 0% when the two signals are uncorrelated, and it is equal to 100% only when the two signal are identical within a constant time delay and a constant scalar factor. The definition in Eq. 14 is also applicable to the evaluation of filter estimates. The simulation results are shown in Fig. 2. Similar to what we observed in the previous example, the convex LS approach (Eq. 3) shows significant improvement in both filter and source estimation compared to the eigenvalue decomposition approach (Eq. 2). In fact, the eigenvalue decomposition 6 Normalized correlation (%) 100 Beamforming Eig?decomp LS BSCI 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Experiments 8 9 10 Figure 3: The source estimates of 10 experiments in real acoustic environments. The normalized correlation was with respect to their anechoic chamber measurement. The filters were identified by three different BCI approaches: the eigenvalue decomposition approach (denoted as eig-decomp) in Eq. 2, the LS approach in Eq. 3, and the blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach in Eq. 4. The beamforming results serve as the baseline performance for comparison. h 1 Amplitude 0 0.5 0 ?10 0 500 1000 1500 h 2 Amplitude Amplitude 0 0 -0.5 0 500 1000 Time (samples) 1500 0 100 5 200 300 400 500 600 700 Real room recording (left microphone) 800 900 B 0 ?5 1 0.5 A 0 -0.5 -1 Anechoic chamber measurement 10 Amplitude Amplitude 1 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Source estimate using the filters identified by BSCI 5 C 0 ?5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Time (samples) 700 800 900 Figure 4: Results of Experiment 6 in Fig. 3. Left: the filters estimated by the proposed blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach. They are sparse as indicated by the enlarged segments. Right: a segment of source estimate (shown in C) using the BSCI approach. It is compared with its anechoic measurement (shown in A) and its microphone recording (shown in B). approach did not yield relevant results because it was too ill-conditioned due to the long filters. The remarkable performance came from the BSCI approach, which incorporates the convex LS formulation with the sparse RIR model. In particular, the BSCI approach yielded higher than 90% normalized correlation in source estimates when SNR was better than 20 dB, and it yielded higher than 99% normalized correlation in the low noise limit. The performance of the canonical delayand-sum beamforming is also presented as the baseline for all BCI algorithms. 3.2 Experiments We also evaluated the proposed BSCI approach using signals recorded in real acoustic environments. We carried out 10 experiments in total in a reverberant room. In each experiment, a sentence of speech (approximately 1.5 seconds, and the same for all experiments) was played through a loudspeaker (NSW2-326-8A, Aura Sound) and recorded by a matched omnidirectional microphone pair (M30MP, Earthworks). The speaker-microphone positions (and thus RIRs) were different in different experiments. Because the recordings had a large amount of low-frequency noise, they were high-passed with a cutoff frequency of 100 Hz before they were fed to BCI algorithms. In the BSCI approach, the l1 -norm regularization parameters, ? 2 and ?, were iteratively computed using the updates in Eq. 11 and 12. After the filters were identified, the sources were computed using Eq. 13. We also had recordings in the anechoic chamber at Bell Labs using the same instruments and settings, and the anechoic measurement served as the approximated ground truth for evaluating the performance of different BCI approaches. 7 Figure 3 shows the source estimates in the 10 experiments in terms of their normalized correlation to the anechoic measurement. The performance of the proposed BSCI is compared with the beamforming, the eigenvalue decomposition (Eq. 2), and the convex LS (Eq. 3) approaches. The results of the 10 experiments unanimously support our previous findings in simulations. First, the convex LS approach yielded significantly better source estimates than the eigenvalue decomposition method. Second, the proposed BSCI approach, which incorporates the convex LS formulation with the sparse RIR model, yielded the most dramatic results, achieving 85% or higher of normalized correlation in source estimates in most experiments while the LS approach only obtained approximately 70% of normalized correlation. Figure 4 shows one instance of filter and source estimates. The estimated filters have about 2000 zeros out of totally 3072 coefficients, and thus they are sparse. This observation experimentally validates our hypothesis of the sparse RIR models, namely, an acoustic RIR can be modeled by a sparse FIR filter. The source estimate shown in Fig. 4 vividly illustrates the convolution and dereverberation process. It only plots a small segment to reveal greater details. As we see, the anechoic measurement was clean and had clear harmonic structure; the signal recorded in the reverberant room was smeared by echoes during the convolution process; and then, the dereverberation using our BSCI approach deblurred the signal and recovered the underlying harmonic structure. 4 Discussion We propose a blind sparse channel identification (BSCI) approach for speech dereverberation. It consists of three important components. The first is the sparse RIR model, which effectively resolves solution degeneracies and robustly models real acoustic environments. The second is the convex formulation, which guarantees global convergence of the proposed BSCI algorithm. And the third is the Bayesian l1 -norm sparse learning scheme that infers the optimal regularization parameters for deriving optimally sparse solutions. The results demonstrate that the proposed BSCI approach holds the potential to solve the speech dereverberation problem in real acoustic environments, which has been recognized as a very difficult problem in signal processing. The acoustic data used in this paper are available at http://www.seas.upenn.edu/?linyuanq/Research.html. Our future work includes side-by-side comparison between our BSCI approach and existing source statistics based BCI approaches. Our goal is to build a uniform framework that combines various prior knowledge about acoustic systems for best solving the speech dereverberation problem. References [1] T. Nakatani, M. Miyoshi, and K. Kinoshita, ?One microphone blind dereverberation based on quasiperiodicity of speech signals,? in NIPS 16. 2004. [2] A. Hyvarinen, J. Karhunen, and E. Oja, Independent Component Analysis, New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons, 2001. [3] H. Attias, J. C. Platt, A. Acero, and L. Deng, ?Speech denoising and dereverberation using probabilistic models,? in NIPS 13, 2000. [4] L. Tong, G. Xu, and T. Kailath, ?Blind identification and equalization based on second-order statistics: A time domain approach,? IEEE Trans. Information Theory, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 340?349, 1994. [5] J. B. Allen and D. A. Berkley, ?Image method for efficiently simulating small-room acoustics,? J. Acoustical Society America, vol. 65, pp. 943?950, 1979. [6] D. L. Duttweiler, ?Proportionate normalized least-mean-squares adaptation in echo cancelers,? IEEE Trans. Speech Audio Processing, vol. 8, pp. 508?518, 2000. [7] Y. Lin and D. D. Lee, ?Bayesian L1 -norm sparse learning,? in Proc. ICASSP, 2006. [8] S. S. Chen, D. L. Donoho, and M. A. Saunders, ?Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit,? SIAM J. Scientific Computing, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 33?61, 1998. [9] S. J. Wright, Primal-Dual Interior Point Methods, Philadelphia, PA: SIAM, 1997. [10] D. M. Malioutov, M. Cetin, and A. S. Willsky, ?Homotopy continuation for sparse signal representation,? in Proc. ICASSP, 2005. [11] D.A. Harville, ?Maximum likelihood approaches to variance component estimation and to related problems,? J. American Statistical Association, vol. 72, pp. 320?338, 1977. [12] M. Miyoshi and Y. Kaneda, ?Inverse filtering of room acoustics,? IEEE Trans. Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 145?152, 1988. 8
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Optimal ROC Curve for a Combination of Classifiers Marco Barreno Alvaro A. C?ardenas J. D. Tygar Computer Science Division University of California at Berkeley Berkeley, California 94720 {barreno,cardenas,tygar}@cs.berkeley.edu Abstract We present a new analysis for the combination of binary classifiers. Our analysis makes use of the Neyman-Pearson lemma as a theoretical basis to analyze combinations of classifiers. We give a method for finding the optimal decision rule for a combination of classifiers and prove that it has the optimal ROC curve. We show how our method generalizes and improves previous work on combining classifiers and generating ROC curves. 1 Introduction We present an optimal way to combine binary classifiers in the Neyman-Pearson sense: for a given upper bound on false alarms (false positives), we find the set of combination rules maximizing the detection rate (true positives). This forms the optimal ROC curve of a combination of classifiers. This paper makes the following original contributions: (1) We present a new method for finding the meta-classifier with the optimal ROC curve. (2) We show how our framework can be used to interpret, generalize, and improve previous work by Provost and Fawcett [1] and Flach and Wu [2]. (3) We present experimental results that show our method is practical and performs well, even when we must estimate the distributions with insufficient data. In addition, we prove the following results: (1) We show that the optimal ROC curve is composed in general of 2n + 1 different decision rules and of the interpolation between these rules (over the 2n space of 2 possible Boolean rules). (2) We prove that our method is optimal in this space. (3) We prove that the Boolean AND and OR rules are always part of the optimal set for the special case of independent classifiers (though in general we make no independence assumptions). (4) We prove a sufficient condition for Provost and Fawcett?s method to be optimal. 2 Background Consider classification problems where examples from a space of inputs X are associated with binary labels {0, 1} and there is a fixed but unknown probability distribution P(x, c) over examples (x, c) ? X ? {0, 1}. H0 and H1 denote the events that c = 0 and c = 1, respectively. A binary classifier is a function f : X ? {0, 1} that predicts labels on new inputs. When we use the term ?classifier? in this paper we mean binary classifier. We address the problem of combining results from n base classifiers f1 , f2 , . . . , fn . Let Yi = fi (X) be a random variable indicating the output of classifier fi and Y ? {0, 1}n = (Y1 , Y2 , . . . , Yn ). We can characterize the performance of classifier fi by its detection rate (also true positives, or power) PDi = Pr[Yi = 1|H1 ] and its false alarm rate (also false positives, or test size) PF i = Pr[Yi = 1|H0 ]. In this paper we are concerned with proper classifiers, that is, classifiers where PDi > PF i . We sometimes omit the subscript i. 1 The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve plots PF on the x-axis and PD on the y-axis (ROC space). The point (0, 0) represents always classifying as 0, the point (1, 1) represents always classifying as 1, and the point (0, 1) represents perfect classification. If one classifier?s curve has no points below another, it weakly dominates the latter. If no points are below and at least one point is strictly above, it dominates it. The line y = x describes a classifier that is no better than chance, and every proper classifier dominates this line. When an ROC curve consists of a single point, we connect it with straight lines to (0, 0) and (1, 1) in order to compare it with others (see Lemma 1). In this paper, we focus on base classifiers that occupy a single point in ROC space. Many classifiers have tunable parameters and can produce a continuous ROC curve; our analysis can apply to these cases by choosing representative points and treating each one as a separate classifier. 2.1 The ROC convex hull Provost and Fawcett [1] give a seminal result on the use of ROC curves for combining classifiers. They suggest taking the convex hull of all points of the ROC curves of the classifiers. This ROC convex hull (ROCCH) combination rule interpolates between base classifiers f1 , f2 , . . . , fn , selecting (1) a single best classifier or (2) a randomization between the decisions of two classifiers for every false alarm rate [1]. This approach, however, is not optimal: as pointed out in later work by Fawcett, the Boolean AND and OR rules over classifiers can perform better than the ROCCH [3]. AND and OR are only 2 of 22 possiblen Boolean rules over the outputs of n base classifiers (n classifiers ? 2n possible outcomes ? 22 rules over outcomes). We address finding optimal rules. n 2.2 The Neyman-Pearson lemma In this section we introduce Neyman-Pearson theory from the framework of statistical hypothesis testing [4, 5], which forms the basis of our analysis. We test a null hypothesis H0 against an alternative H1 . Let the random variable Y have probability distributions P (Y|H0 ) under H0 and P (Y|H1 ) under H1 , and define the likelihood ratio ?(Y) = P (Y|H1 )/P (Y|H0 ). The Neyman-Pearson lemma states that the likelihood ratio test ( 1 if ?(Y) > ? ? if ?(Y) = ? , D(Y) = (1) 0 if ?(Y) < ? for some ? ? (0, ?) and ? ? [0, 1], is a most powerful test for its size: no other test has higher PD = Pr[D(Y) = 1|H1 ] for the same bound on PF = Pr[D(Y) = 1|H0 ]. (When ?(Y) = ? , D = 1 with probability ? and 0 otherwise.) Given a test size ?, we maximize PD subject to PF ? ? by choosing ? and ? as follows. First we find the smallest value ? ? such that Pr[?(Y) > ? ? |H0 ] ? ?. To maximize PD , which is monotonically nondecreasing with PF , we choose the highest value ? ? that satisfies Pr[D(Y) = 1|H0 ] = Pr[?(Y) > ? ? |H0 ] + ? ? Pr[?(Y) = ? ? |H0 ] ? ?, finding ? ? = (? ? Pr[?(Y) > ? ? |H0 ])/ Pr[?(Y) = ? ? |H0 ]. 3 The optimal ROC curve for a combination of classifiers We characterize the optimal ROC curve for a decision based on a combination of arbitrary classifiers?for any given bound ? on PF , we maximize PD . We frame this problem as a NeymanPearson hypothesis test parameterized by the choice of ?. We assume nothing about the classifiers except that each produces an output in {0, 1}. In particular, we do not assume the classifiers are independent or related in any way. Before introducing our method we analyze the one-classifier case (n = 1). Lemma 1 Let f1 be a classifier with performance probabilities PD1 and PF 1 . Its optimal ROC curve is a piecewise linear function parameterized by a free parameter ? bounding PF : for ? < PF 1 , PD (?) = (PD1 /PF 1 )?, and for ? > PF 1 , PD (?) = [(1 ? PD1 )/(1 ? PF 1 )](? ? PF 1 ) + PD1 . Proof. When ? < PF 1 , we can obtain a likelihood ratio test by setting ? ? = ?(1) and ? ? = ?/PF 1 , and for ? > PF 1 , we set ? ? = ?(0) and ? ? = (? ? PF 1 )/(1 ? PF 1 ). 2 2 The intuitive interpretation of this result is that to decrease or increase the false alarm rate of the classifier, we randomize between using its predictions and always choosing 1 or 0. In ROC space, this forms lines interpolating between (PF 1 , PD1 ) and (1, 1) or (0, 0), respectively. To generalize this result for the combination of n classifiers, we require the distributions P (Y|H0 ) and P (Y|H1 ). With this information we then compute and sort the likelihood ratios ?(y) for all outcomes y ? {0, 1}n . Let L be the list of likelihood ratios ranked from low to high. Lemma 2 Given any 0 ? ? ? 1, the ordering L determines parameters ? ? and ? ? for a likelihood ratio test of size ?. Lemma 2 sets up a classification rule for each interval between likelihoods in L and interpolates between them to create a test with size exactly ?. Our meta-classifier does this for any given bound on its false positive rate, then makes predictions according to Equation 1. To find the ROC curve for our meta-classifier, we plot PD against PF for all 0 ? ? ? 1. In particular, for each y ? {0, 1}n we can compute Pr[?(Y) > ?(y)|H0 ], which gives us one value for ? ? and a point in ROC space (PF and PD follow directly from L and P ). Each ? ? will turn out to be the slope of a line segment between adjacent vertices, and varying ? ? interpolates between the vertices. We call the ROC curve obtained in this way the LR-ROC. Theorem 1 The LR-ROC weakly dominates the ROC curve of any possible combination of Boolean functions g : {0, 1}n ? {0, 1} over the outputs of n classifiers. Proof. Let ?? be the probability of false alarm PF for g. Let ? ? and ? ? be chosen for a test of size ?? . Then our meta-classifier?s decision rule is a likelihood ratio test. By the Neyman-Pearson lemma, no other test has higher power for any given size. Since ROC space plots power on the y-axis and size on the x-axis, this means that the PD for g at PF = ?? cannot be higher than that of the LR-ROC. Since this is true at any ?? , the LR-ROC weakly dominates the ROC curve for g. 2 3.1 Practical considerations To compute all likelihood ratios for the classifier outcomes we need to know the probability distributions P (Y|H0 ) and P (Y|H1 ). In practice these distributions need to be estimated. The simplest method is to run the base classifiers on a training set and count occurrences of each outcome. It is likely that some outcomes will not occur in the training, or will occur only a small number of times. Our initial approach to deal with small or zero counts when estimating was to use add-one smoothing. In our experiments, however, simple special-case treatment of zero counts always produced better results than smoothing, both on the training set and on the test set. See Section 5 for details. Furthermore, the optimal ROC curve may have a different likelihood ratio for each possible outcome from the n classifiers, and therefore a different point in ROC space, so optimal ROC curves in general have up to 2n points. This implies an exponential (in the number of classifiers) lower bound on the running time of any algorithm to compute the optimal ROC curve for a combination of classifiers. For a handful of classifiers, such a bound is not problematic, but it is impractical to compute the optimal ROC curve for dozensnor hundreds of classifiers. (However, by computing and sorting the likelihood ratios we avoid a 22 -time search over all possible classification functions.) 4 4.1 Analysis The independent case In this section we take an in-depth look at the case of two binary classifiers f1 and f2 that are conditionally independent given the input?s class, so that P (Y1 , Y2 |Hc ) = P (Y1 |Hc )P (Y2 |Hc ) for c ? {0, 1} (this section is the only part of the paper in which we make any independence assumptions). Since Y1 and Y2 are conditionally independent, we do not need the full joint distribution; we need only the probabilities PD1 , PF 1 , PD2 , and PF 2 to find the combined PD and PF . For example, ?(01) = ((1 ? PD1 )PD2 )/((1 ? PF 1 )PF 2 ). The assumption that f1 and f2 are conditionally independent and proper defines a partial ordering on the likelihood ratio: ?(00) < ?(10) < ?(11) and ?(00) < ?(01) < ?(11). Without loss of 3 Table 1: Two probability distributions. Class 1 (H1 ) Y1 Y2 0 1 0 0.2 0.375 1 0.1 0.325 Class 0 (H0 ) Y1 Y2 0 1 0 0.5 0.1 1 0.3 0.1 Class 1 (H1 ) Y1 Y2 0 1 0 0.2 0.1 1 0.2 0.5 (a) Class 0 (H0 ) Y1 Y2 0 1 0 0.1 0.3 1 0.5 0.1 (b) generality, we assume ?(00) < ?(01) < ?(10) < ?(11). This ordering breaks the likelihood ratio?s range (0, ?) into five regions; choosing ? in each region defines a different decision rule. The trivial cases 0 ? ? < ?(00) and ?(11) < ? < ? correspond to always classifying as 1 and 0, respectively. PD and PF are therefore both equal to 1 and both equal to 0, respectively. For the case ?(00) ? ? < ?(01), Pr [?(Y) > ? ] = Pr [Y = 01 ? Y = 10 ? Y = 11] = Pr [Y1 = 1 ? Y2 = 1] . Thresholds in this range define an OR rule for the classifiers, with PD = PD1 + PD2 ? PD1 PD2 and PF = PF 1 + PF 2 ? PF 1 PF 2 . For the case ?(01) ? ? < ?(10), we have Pr [?(Y) > ? ] = Pr [Y = 10 ? Y = 11] = Pr [Y1 = 1] . Therefore the performance probabilities are simply PD = PD1 and PF = PF 1 . Finally, the case ?(10) ? ? < ?(11) implies that Pr [?(Y) > ? ] = Pr [Y = 11] , and therefore thresholds in this range define an AND rule, with PD = PD1 PD2 and PF = PF 1 PF 2 . Figure 1a illustrates this analysis with an example. The assumption of conditional independence is a sufficient condition for ensuring that the AND and OR rules improve on the ROCCH for n classifiers, as the following result shows. Theorem 2 If the distributions of the outputs of n proper binary classifiers Y1 , Y2 , . . . , Yn are conditionally independent given the instance class, then the points in ROC space for the rules AND (Y1 ? Y2 ? ? ? ? ? Yn ) and OR (Y1 ? Y2 ? ? ? ? ? Yn ) are strictly above the convex hull of the ROC curves of the base classifiers f1 , . . . , fn . Furthermore, these Boolean rules belong to the LR-ROC. Proof. The likelihood ratio of the case when AND outputs 1 is given by ?(11 ? ? ? 1) = (PD1 PD2 ? ? ? PDn )/(PF 1 PF 2 ? ? ? PF n ). The likelihood ratio of the case when OR does not output 1 is given by ?(00 ? ? ? 0) = [(1 ? PD1 )(1 ? PD2 ) ? ? ? (1 ? PDn )]/[(1 ? PF 1 )(1 ? PF 2 ) ? ? ? (1 ? PF n )]. Now recall that for proper classifiers fi , PDi > PF i and thus (1 ? PDi )/(1 ? PF i ) < 1 < PDi /PF i . It is now clear that ?(00 ? ? ? 0) is the smallest likelihood ratio and ?(11 ? ? ? 1) is the largest likelihood ratio, since others are obtained only by swapping P(F,D)i and (1 ? P(F,D)i ), and therefore the OR and AND rules will always be part of the optimal set of decisions for conditionally independent classifiers. These rules are strictly above the ROCCH: because ?(11 ? ? ? 1) > PD1 /PD2 , and PD1 /PD2 is the slope of the line from (0, 0) to the first point in the ROCCH (f1 ), the AND point must be above the ROCCH. A similar argument holds for OR since ?(00 ? ? ? 0) < (1 ? PDn )/(1 ? PF n ). 2 4.2 Two examples We return now to the general case with no independence assumptions. We present two example distributions for the two-classifier case that demonstrate interesting results. The first distribution appears in Table 1a. The likelihood ratio values are ?(00) = 0.4, ?(10) = 3.75, ?(01) = 1/3, and ?(11) = 3.25, giving us ?(01) < ?(00) < ?(11) < ?(10). The three non-trivial rules correspond to the Boolean functions Y1 ? ?Y2 , Y1 , and Y1 ? ?Y2 . Note that Y2 appears only negatively despite being a proper classifier, and both the AND and OR rules are sub-optimal. The distribution for the second example appears in Table 1b. The likelihood ratios of the outcomes are ?(00) = 2.0, ?(10) = 1/3, ?(01) = 0.4, and ?(11) = 5, so ?(10) < ?(01) < ?(00) < ?(11) and the three points defining the optimal ROC curve are ?Y1 ? Y2 , ?(Y1 ? Y2 ), and Y1 ? Y2 (see Figure 1b). In this case, an XOR rule emerges from the likelihood ratio analysis. These examples show that for true optimal results it is not sufficient to use weighted voting rules w1 Y1 + w2 Y2 + ? ? ? + wn Yn ? ? , where w ? (0, ?) (like some ensemble methods). Weighted voting always has AND and OR rules in its ROC curve, so it cannot always express optimal rules. 4 1 Y1 ? Y2 Y2 0.8 Y1 ? Y2 Y1 0.4 0.8 Y1 ? Y2 PD 0.6 PD 0.6 Y2 0.4 PF 0.6 f1 f2 f3? 0.4 0.2 0.2 ROC of f2 LR?ROC 0.2 f3 ROC of f1 ROC of f2 0 0 f2? 0.6 Y1 0.4 ROC of f1 0.2 1 ?Y1 ? Y2 ?(Y1 ? Y2 ) PD 1 0.8 Original ROC LR?ROC f1? LR?ROC 0.8 1 (a) 0 0 0.2 0.4 P F 0.6 0.8 (b) 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 P 0.6 F 0.8 1 (c) Figure 1: (a) ROC for two conditionally independent classifiers. (b) ROC curve for the distributions in Table 1b. (c) Original ROC curve and optimal ROC curve for example in Section 4.4. 4.3 Optimality of the ROCCH We have seen that in some cases, rules exist with points strictly above the ROCCH. As the following result shows, however, there are conditions under which the ROCCH is optimal. Theorem 3 Consider n classifiers f1 , . . . , fn . The convex hull of points (PF i , PDi ) with (0, 0) and (1, 1) (the ROCCH) is an optimal ROC curve for the combination if (Yi = 1) ? (Yj = 1) for i < j and the following ordering holds: ?(00 ? ? ? 0) < ?(00 ? ? ? 01) < ?(00 ? ? ? 011) < ? ? ? < ?(1 ? ? ? 1). Proof. The condition (Yi = 1) ? (Yj = 1) for i < j implies that we only need to consider n + 2 points in the ROC space (the two extra points are (0, 0) and (1, 1)) rather than 2n . It also implies the following conditions on the joint distribution: Pr[Y1 = 0 ? ? ? ? ? Yi = 0 ? Yi+1 = 1 ? ? ? ? ? Yn = 1|H0 ] = PF i+1 ? PF i , and Pr[Y1 = 1 ? ? ? ? ? Yn = 1|H0 ] = PF 1 . With these conditions and the ordering condition on the likelihood ratios, we have Pr[?(Y) > ?(1 ? ? ? 1)|H0 ] = 0, and Pr[?(Y) > ?(0 ? ? 0} 1 ? ? ? 1)|H0 ] = PF i . Therefore, finding the optimal threshold of the likelihood | ?{z i ratio test for PF i?1 ? ? < PF i , we get ? ? = ?(0 ? ? 0} 1 ? ? ? 1), and for PF i ? ? < PF i+1 , | ?{z i?1 ? ? = ?(0 ? ? 0} 1 ? ? ? 1). This change in ? ? implies that the point PF i is part of the LR-ROC. Setting | ?{z i ? = PF i (thus ? ? = ?(0 ? ? 0} 1 ? ? ? 1) and ? ? =0) implies Pr[?(Y) > ? ? |H1 ] = PDi . | ?{z 2 i The condition Yi = 1 ? Yj = 1 for i < j is the same inclusion condition Flach and Wu use for repairing an ROC curve [2]. It intuitively represents the performance in ROC space of a single classifier with different operating points. The next section explores this relationship further. 4.4 Repairing an ROC curve Flach and Wu give a voting technique to repair concavities in an ROC curve that generates operating points above the ROCCH [2]. Their intuition is that points underneath the convex hull can be mirrored to appear above the convex hull in much the same way as an improper classifier can be negated to obtain a proper classifier. Although their algorithm produces better ROC curves, their solution will often yield curves with new concavities (see for example Flach and Wu?s Figure 4 [2]). Their algorithm has a similar purpose to ours, but theirs is a local greedy optimization technique, while our method performs a global search in order to find the best ROC curve. Figure 1c shows an example comparing their method to ours. Consider the following probability distribution on a random variable Y ? {0, 1}2 : P ((00, 10, 01, 11)|H1 ) = (0.1, 0.3, 0.0, 0.6), P ((00, 10, 01, 11)|H0 ) = (0.5, 0.001, 0.4, 0.099). Flach and Wu?s method assumes the original ROC curve to be repaired has three models, or operating points: f1 predicts 1 when Y ? {11}, f2 predicts 1 when Y ? {11, 01}, and f3 predicts 1 when Y ? {11, 01, 10}. If we apply Flach and Wu?s repair algorithm, the point f2 is corrected to the point f2? ; however, the operating points of f1 and f3 remain the same. 5 1.0 0.2 0.4 Pd 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 Pd 0.4 0.2 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 Meta (train) Base (train) Meta (test) Base (test) PART 0.0 0.0 Meta (train) Base (train) Meta (test) Base (test) PART 0.20 0.000 0.005 Pfa 0.010 0.015 Pfa 0.8 0.6 Pd 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 Pd 0.6 0.8 1.0 (b) hypothyroid 1.0 (a) adult 0.00 0.05 0.10 Meta (train) Base (train) Meta (test) Base (test) PART 0.0 0.0 Meta (train) Base (train) Meta (test) Base (test) PART 0.15 0.00 Pfa 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Pfa (c) sick-euthyroid (d) sick Figure 2: Empirical ROC curves for experimental results on four UCI datasets. Our method improves on this result by ordering the likelihood ratios ?(01) < ?(00) < ?(11) < ?(10) and using that ordering to make three different rules: f1? predicts 1 when Y ? {10}, f2? predicts 1 when Y ? {10, 11}, and f3? predicts 1 when Y ? {10, 11, 00}. 5 Experiments We ran experiments to test the performance of our combining method on the adult, hypothyroid, sick-euthyroid, and sick datasets from the UCI machine learning repository [6]. We chose five base classifiers from the YALE machine learning platform [7]: PART (a decision list algorithm), SMO (Sequential Minimal Optimization), SimpleLogistic, VotedPerceptron, and Y-NaiveBayes. We used default settings for all classifiers. The adult dataset has around 30,000 training points and 15,000 test points and the sick dataset has around 2000 training points and 700 test points. The others each have around 2000 points that we split randomly into 1000 training and 1000 test. For each experiment, we estimate the joint distribution by training the base classifiers on a training set and counting the outcomes. We compute likelihood ratios for all outcomes and order them. When outcomes have no examples, we treat ?/0 as near-infinite and 0/? as near-zero and define 0/0 = 1. 6 We derive a sequence of decision rules from the likelihood ratios computed on the training set. We can compute an optimal ROC curve for the combination by counting the number of true positives and false positives each rule achieves. In the test set we use the rules learned on the training set. 5.1 Results The ROC graphs for our four experiments appear in Figure 2. The ROC curves in these experiments all rise very quickly and then flatten out, so we show only the range of PF 1 for which the values are interesting. We can draw some general conclusions from these graphs. First, PART clearly outperforms the other base classifiers in three out of four experiments, though it seems to overfit on the hypothyroid dataset. The LR-ROC dominates the ROC curves of the base classifiers on both training and test sets. The ROC curves for the base classifiers are all strictly below the LR-ROC in results on the test sets. The results on training sets seem to imply that the LR-ROC is primarily classifying like PART with a small boost from the other classifiers; however, the test set results (in particular, Figure 2b) demonstrate that the LR-ROC generalizes better than the base classifiers. The robustness of our method to estimation errors is uncertain. In our experiments we found that smoothing did not improve generalization, but undoubtedly our method would benefit from better estimation of the outcome distribution and increased robustness. We ran separate experiments to test how many classifiers our method could support in practice. Estimation of the joint distribution and computation of the ROC curve finished within one minute for 20 classifiers (not including time to train the individual classifiers). Unfortunately, the inherent exponential structure of the optimal ROC curve means we cannot expect to do significantly better (at the same rate, 30 classifiers would take over 12 hours and 40 classifiers almost a year and a half). 6 Related work Our work is loosely related to ensemble methods such as bagging [8] and boosting [9] because it finds meta-classification rules over a set of base classifiers. However, bagging and boosting each take one base classifier and train many times, resampling or reweighting the training data to generate classifier diversity [10] or increase the classification margin [11]. The decision rules applied to the generated classifiers are (weighted) majority voting. In contrast, our method takes any binary classifiers and finds optimal combination rules from the more general space of all binary functions. Ranking algorithms, such as RankBoost [12], approach the problem of ranking points by score or preference. Although we present our methods in a different light, our decision rule can be interpreted as a ranking algorithm. RankBoost, however, is a boosting algorithm and therefore fundamentally different from our approach. Ranking can be used for classification by choosing a cutoff or threshold, and in fact ranking algorithms tend to optimize the common Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) metric. Although our method may have the side effect of maximizing the AUC, its formulation is different in that instead of optimizing a single global metric, it is a constrained optimization problem, maximizing PD for each PF . Another more similar method for combining classifiers is stacking [13]. Stacking trains a metalearner to combine the predictions of several base classifiers; in fact, our method might be considered a stacking method with a particular meta-classifier. It can be difficult to show the improvement of stacking in general over selecting the best base-level classifier [14]; however, stacking has a useful interpretation as generalized cross-validation that makes it practical. Our analysis shows that our combination method is the optimal meta-learner in the Neyman-Pearson sense, but incorporating the model validation aspect of stacking would make an interesting extension to our work. 7 Conclusion In this paper we introduce a new way to analyze a combination of classifiers and their ROC curves. We give a method for combining classifiers and prove that it is optimal in the Neyman-Pearson sense. This work raises several interesting questions. Although the algorithm presented in this paper avoids checking the whole doubly exponential number of rules, the exponential factor in running time limits the number of classifiers that can be 7 combined in practice. Can a good approximation algorithm approach optimality while having lower time complexity? Though in general we make no assumptions about independence, Theorem 2 shows that certain simple rules are optimal when we do know that the classifiers are independent. Theorem 3 proves that the ROCCH can be optimal when only n output combinations are possible. Perhaps other restrictions on the distribution of outcomes can lead to useful special cases. Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by TRUST (Team for Research in Ubiquitous Secure Technology), which receives support from the National Science Foundation (NSF award number CCF-0424422) and the following organizations: AFOSR (#FA9550-06-1-0244), Cisco, British Telecom, ESCHER, HP, IBM, iCAST, Intel, Microsoft, ORNL, Pirelli, Qualcomm, Sun, Symantec, Telecom Italia, and United Technologies; and in part by the UC Berkeley-Taiwan International Collaboration in Advanced Security Technologies (iCAST) program. The opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any funding agency or the U.S. or Taiwanese governments. References [1] Foster Provost and Tom Fawcett. Robust classification for imprecise environments. Machine Learning Journal, 42(3):203?231, March 2001. [2] Peter A. Flach and Shaomin Wu. Repairing concavities in ROC curves. In Proceedings of the 19th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI?05), pages 702?707, August 2005. [3] Tom Fawcett. ROC graphs: Notes and practical considerations for data mining researchers. Technical Report HPL-2003-4, HP Laboratories, Palo Alto, CA, January 2003. Updated March 2004. [4] J. Neyman and E. S. Pearson. On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical or Physical Character, 231:289?337, 1933. [5] Vincent H. Poor. An Introduction to Signal Detection and Estimation. Springer-Verlag, second edition, 1988. [6] D. J. Newman, S. Hettich, C. L. Blake, and C. J. Merz. UCI repository of machine learning databases, 1998. http://www.ics.uci.edu/?mlearn/MLRepository.html. [7] I. Mierswa, M. Wurst, R. Klinkenberg, M. Scholz, and T. Euler. YALE: Rapid prototyping for complex data mining tasks. In Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD), 2006. [8] L. Breiman. Bagging predictors. Machine Learning, 24(2):123?140, 1996. [9] Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. Experiments with a new boosting algorithm. In Thirteenth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 148?156, Bari, Italy, 1996. Morgan Kaufmann. [10] Thomas G. Dietterich. Ensemble methods in machine learning. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 1857:1?15, 2000. [11] Robert E. Schapire, Yoav Freund, Peter Bartlett, and Wee Sun Lee. Boosting the margin: A new explanation for the effectiveness of voting methods. The Annals of Statistics, 26(5):1651?1686, October 1998. [12] Yoav Freund, Raj Iyer, Robert E. Schapire, and Yoram Singer. An efficient boosting algorithm for combining preferences. Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), 4:933?969, 2003. [13] D. H. Wolpert. Stacked generalization. Neural Networks, 5:241?259, 1992. ? [14] Saso D?zeroski and Bernard Zenko. Is combining classifiers with stacking better than selecting the best one? Machine Learning, 54:255?273, 2004. 8
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The discriminant center-surround hypothesis for bottom-up saliency Dashan Gao Vijay Mahadevan Nuno Vasconcelos Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of California, San Diego {dgao, vmahadev, nuno}@ucsd.edu Abstract The classical hypothesis, that bottom-up saliency is a center-surround process, is combined with a more recent hypothesis that all saliency decisions are optimal in a decision-theoretic sense. The combined hypothesis is denoted as discriminant center-surround saliency, and the corresponding optimal saliency architecture is derived. This architecture equates the saliency of each image location to the discriminant power of a set of features with respect to the classification problem that opposes stimuli at center and surround, at that location. It is shown that the resulting saliency detector makes accurate quantitative predictions for various aspects of the psychophysics of human saliency, including non-linear properties beyond the reach of previous saliency models. Furthermore, it is shown that discriminant center-surround saliency can be easily generalized to various stimulus modalities (such as color, orientation and motion), and provides optimal solutions for many other saliency problems of interest for computer vision. Optimal solutions, under this hypothesis, are derived for a number of the former (including static natural images, dense motion fields, and even dynamic textures), and applied to a number of the latter (the prediction of human eye fixations, motion-based saliency in the presence of ego-motion, and motion-based saliency in the presence of highly dynamic backgrounds). In result, discriminant saliency is shown to predict eye fixations better than previous models, and produces background subtraction algorithms that outperform the state-of-the-art in computer vision. 1 Introduction The psychophysics of visual saliency and attention have been extensively studied during the last decades. As a result of these studies, it is now well known that saliency mechanisms exist for a number of classes of visual stimuli, including color, orientation, depth, and motion, among others. More recently, there has been an increasing effort to introduce computational models for saliency. One approach that has become quite popular, both in the biological and computer vision communities, is to equate saliency with center-surround differencing. It was initially proposed in [12], and has since been applied to saliency detection in both static imagery and motion analysis, as well as to computer vision problems such as robotics, or video compression. While difference-based modeling is successful at replicating many observations from psychophysics, it has three significant limitations. First, it does not explain those observations in terms of fundamental computational principles for neural organization. For example, it implies that visual perception relies on a linear measure of similarity (difference between feature responses in center and surround). This is at odds with well known properties of higher level human judgments of similarity, which tend not to be symmetric or even compliant with Euclidean geometry [20]. Second, the psychophysics of saliency offers strong evidence for the existence of both non-linearities and asymmetries which are not easily reconciled with this model. Third, although the center-surround hypothesis intrinsically poses 1 saliency as a classification problem (of distinguishing center from surround), there is little basis on which to justify difference-based measures as optimal in a classification sense. From an evolutionary perspective, this raises questions about the biological plausibility of the difference-based paradigm. An alternative hypothesis is that all saliency decisions are optimal in a decision-theoretic sense. This hypothesis has been denoted as discriminant saliency in [6], where it was somewhat narrowly proposed as the justification for a top-down saliency algorithm. While this algorithm is of interest only for object recognition, the hypothesis of decision theoretic optimality is much more general, and applicable to any form of center-surround saliency. This has motivated us to test its ability to explain the psychophysics of human saliency, which is better documented for the bottom-up neural pathway. We start from the combined hypothesis that 1) bottom-up saliency is based on centersurround processing, and 2) this processing is optimal in a decision theoretic sense. In particular, it is hypothesized that, in the absence of high-level goals, the most salient locations of the visual field are those that enable the discrimination between center and surround with smallest expected probability of error. This is referred to as the discriminant center-surround hypothesis and, by definition, produces saliency measures that are optimal in a classification sense. It is also clearly tied to a larger principle for neural organization: that all perceptual mechanisms are optimal in a decision-theoretic sense. In this work, we present the results of an experimental evaluation of the plausibility of the discriminant center-surround hypothesis. Our study evaluates the ability of saliency algorithms, that are optimal under this hypothesis, to both ? reproduce subject behavior in classical psychophysics experiments, and ? solve saliency problems of practical significance, with respect to a number of classes of visual stimuli. We derive decision-theoretic optimal center-surround algorithms for a number of saliency problems, ranging from static spatial saliency, to motion-based saliency in the presence of egomotion or even complex dynamic backgrounds. Regarding the ability to replicate psychophysics, the results of this study show that discriminant saliency not only replicates all anecdotal observations that can be explained by linear models, such as that of [12], but can also make (surprisingly accurate) quantitative predictions for non-linear aspects of human saliency, which are beyond the reach of the existing approaches. With respect to practical saliency algorithms, they show that discriminant saliency not only is more accurate than difference-based methods in predicting human eye fixations, but actually produces background subtraction algorithms that outperform the state-of-the-art in computer vision. In particular, it is shown that, by simply modifying the probabilistic models employed in the (decision-theoretic optimal) saliency measure - from well known models of natural image statistics, to the statistics of simple optical-flow motion features, to more sophisticated dynamic texture models - it is possible to produce saliency detectors for either static or dynamic stimuli, which are insensitive to background image variability due to texture, egomotion, or scene dynamics. 2 Discriminant center-surround saliency A common hypothesis for bottom-up saliency is that the saliency of each location is determined by how distinct the stimulus at the location is from the stimuli in its surround (e.g., [11]). This hypothesis is inspired by the ubiquity of ?center-surround? mechanisms in the early stages of biological vision [10]. It can be combined with the hypothesis of decision-theoretic optimality, by defining a classification problem that equates ? the class of interest, at location l, with the observed responses of a pre-defined set of features X within a neighborhood Wl1 of l (the center), ? the null hypothesis with the responses within a surrounding window Wl0 (the surround ), The saliency of location l? is then equated with the power of the feature set X to discriminate between center and surround. Mathematically, the feature responses within the two windows are interpreted as observations drawn from a random process X(l) = (X1 (l), . . . , Xd (l)), of dimension d, conditioned on the state of a hidden random variable Y (l). The observed feature vector at any location j is denoted by x(j) = (x1 (j), . . . , xd (j)), and feature vectors x(j) such that j ? Wlc , c ? 2 {0, 1} are drawn from class c (i.e., Y (l) = c), according to conditional densities PX(l)|Y (l) (x|c). The saliency of location l, S(l), is quantified by the mutual information between features, X, and class label, Y , XZ pX(l),Y (l) (x, c) S(l) = Il (X; Y ) = pX(l),Y (l) (x, c) log dx. (1) pX(l) (x)pY (l) (c) c The l subscript emphasizes the fact that the mutual information is defined locally, within Wl . The function S(l) is referred to as the saliency map. 3 Discriminant saliency detection in static imagery Since human saliency has been most thoroughly studied in the domain of static stimuli, we first derive the optimal solution for discriminant saliency in this domain. We then study the ability of the discriminant center-surround saliency hypothesis to explain the fundamental properties of the psychophysics of pre-attentive vision. 3.1 Feature decomposition The building blocks of the static discriminant saliency detector are shown in Figure 1. The first stage, feature decomposition, follows the proposal of [11], which closely mimics the earliest stages of biological visual processing. The image to process is first subject to a feature decomposition into an intensity map and four broadly-tuned color channels, I = (r + g + b)/3, R = b? r ? (? g + ?b)/2c+ , ? ? ? G = b? g ? (? r + b)/2c+ , B = bb ? (r + g?)/2c+ , and Y = b(? r + g?)/2 ? |? r ? g?|/2c+ , where r? = r/I, g? = g/I, ?b = b/I, and bxc+ = max(x, 0). The four color channels are, in turn, combined into two color opponent channels, R ? G for red/green and B ? Y for blue/yellow opponency. These and the intensity map are convolved with three Mexican hat wavelet filters, centered at spatial frequencies 0.02, 0.04 and 0.08 cycle/pixel, to generate nine feature channels. The feature space X consists of these channels, plus a Gabor decomposition of the intensity map, implemented with a dictionary of zero-mean Gabor filters at 3 spatial scales (centered at frequencies of 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 cycle/pixel) and 4 directions (evenly spread from 0 to ?). 3.2 Leveraging natural image statistics In general, the computation of (1) is impractical, since it requires density estimates on a potentially high-dimensional feature space. This complexity can, however, be drastically reduced by exploiting a well known statistical property of band-pass natural image features, e.g. Gabor or wavelet coefficients: that features of this type exhibit strongly consistent patterns of dependence (bow-tie shaped conditional distributions) across a very wide range of classes of natural imagery [2, 9, 21]. The consistency of these feature dependencies suggests that they are, in general, not greatly informative about the image class [21, 2] and, in the particular case of saliency, about whether the observed feature vectors originate in the center or surround. Hence, (1) can usually be well approximated by the sum of marginal mutual informations [21]1 , i.e., S(l) = d X Il (Xi ; Y ). (2) i=1 Since (2) only requires estimates of marginal densities, it has significantly less complexity than (1). This complexity can, indeed, be further reduced by resorting to the well known fact that the marginal densities are accurately modeled by a generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) [13]. In this case, all computations have a simple closed form [4] and can be mapped into a neural network that replicates the standard architecture of V1: a cascade of linear filtering, divisive normalization, quadratic nonlinearity and spatial pooling [7]. 1 Note that this approximation does not assume that the features are independently distributed, but simply that their dependencies are not informative about the class. 3 (a) Color (R/G, B/Y) Feature maps Feature saliency maps 3 1.9 2.5 1.85 1.5 1.8 1 1.75 6 0.5 0 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 Orientation contrast (deg) (b) 70 80 90 1.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Orientation contrast (deg) (c) Figure 2: The nonlinearity of human saliency responses to orientation contrast [14] (a) is replicated by discriminant saliency (b), but not by the model of [11] (c). Figure 1: Bottom-up discriminant saliency detector. 3.3 Saliency Saliency Intensity Saliency map Orientation Feature decomposition 2 Consistency with psychophysics To evaluate the consistency of discriminant saliency with psychophysics, we start by applying the discriminant saliency detector to a series of displays used in classical studies of visual attention [18, 19, 14]2 . In [7], we have shown that discriminant saliency reproduces the anecdotal properties of saliency - percept of pop-out for single feature search, disregard of feature conjunctions, and search asymmetries for feature presence vs. absence - that have previously been shown possible to replicate with linear saliency models [11]. Here, we focus on quantitative predictions of human performance, and compare the output of discriminant saliency with both human data and that of the differencebased center-surround saliency model [11]3 . The first experiment tests the ability of the saliency models to predict a well known nonlinearity of human saliency. Nothdurft [14] has characterized the saliency of pop-out targets due to orientation contrast, by comparing the conspicuousness of orientation defined targets and luminance defined ones, and using luminance as a reference for relative target salience. He showed that the saliency of a target increases with orientation contrast, but in a non-linear manner: 1) there exists a threshold below which the effect of pop-out vanishes, and 2) above this threshold saliency increases with contrast, saturating after some point. The results of this experiment are illustrated in Figure 2, which presents plots of saliency strength vs orientation contrast for human subjects [14] (in (a)), for discriminant saliency (in (b)), and for the difference-based model of [11]. Note that discriminant saliency closely predicts the strong threshold and saturation effects characteristic of subject performance, but the difference-based model shows no such compliance. The second experiment tests the ability of the models to make accurate quantitative predictions of search asymmetries. It replicates the experiment designed by Treisman [19] to show that the asymmetries of human saliency comply with Weber?s law. Figure 3 (a) shows one example of the displays used in the experiment, where the central target (vertical bar) differs from distractors (a set of identical vertical bars) only in length. Figure 3 (b) shows a scatter plot of the values of discriminant saliency obtained across the set of displays. Each point corresponds to the saliency at the target location in one display, and the dashed line shows that, like human perception, discriminant saliency follows Weber?s law: target saliency is approximately linear in the ratio between the difference of target/distractor length (?x) and distractor length (x). For comparison, Figure 3 (c) presents the corresponding scatter plot for the model of [11], which clearly does not replicate human performance. 4 Applications of discriminant saliency We have, so far, presented quantitative evidence in support of the hypothesis that pre-attentive vision implements decision-theoretical center-surround saliency. This evidence is strengthened by the 2 For the computation of the discriminant saliency maps, we followed the common practice of psychophysics and physiology [18, 10], to set the size of the center window to a value comparable to that of the display items, and the size of the surround window is 6 times of that of the center. Informal experimentation has shown that the saliency results are not substantively affected by variations around the parameter values adopted. 3 Results obtained with the MATLAB implementation available in [22]. 4 0.95 0.9 Saliency ROC area (a) 1.95 1 1.9 0.8 Saliency Saliency 1.85 0.6 0.4 1.8 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 1.75 0.2 0 0 1.7 0.2 0.4 ? x/x 0.6 0.8 1.65 0 0.2 0.4 ? x/x 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 (b) (c) Figure 3: An example display (a) and performance of saliency detectors (discriminant saliency (b) and [11] (c)) on Weber?s law experiment. Saliency model ROC area discriminant saliency Itti et al. Bruce et al. 0.65 Discriminant 0.7694 0.85 0.9 Inter?subject ROC area 0.95 0.98 Figure 4: Average ROC area, as a function of inter-subject ROC area, for the saliency algorithms. Itti et al. [11] 0.7287 Bruce et al. [1] 0.7547 Table 1: ROC areas for different saliency models with respect to all human fixations. already mentioned one-to-one mapping between the discriminant saliency detector proposed above and the standard model for the neurophysiology of V1 [7]. Another interesting property of discriminant saliency is that its optimality is independent of the stimulus dimension under consideration, or of specific feature sets. In fact, (1) can be applied to any type of stimuli, and any type of features, as long as it is possible to estimate the required probability distributions from the center and surround neighborhoods. This encouraged us to derive discriminant saliency detectors for various computer vision applications, ranging from the prediction of human eye fixations, to the detection of salient moving objects, to background subtraction in the context of highly dynamic scenes. The outputs of these discriminant saliency detectors are next compared with either human performance, or the state-of-the-art in computer vision for each application. 4.1 Prediction of eye fixations on natural images We start by using the static discriminant saliency detector of the previous section to predict human eye fixations. For this, the saliency maps were compared to the eye fixations of human subjects in an image viewing task. The experimental protocol was that of [1], using fixation data collected from 20 subjects and 120 natural images. Under this protocol, all saliency maps are first quantized into a binary mask that classifies each image location as either a fixation or non-fixation [17]. Using the measured human fixations as ground truth, a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is then generated by varying the quantization threshold. Perfect prediction corresponds to an ROC area (area under the ROC curve) of 1, while chance performance occurs at an area of 0.5. The predictions of discriminant saliency are compared to those of the methods of [11] and [1]. Table 1 presents average ROC areas for all detectors, across the entire image set. It is clear that discriminant saliency achieves the best performance among the three detectors. For a more detailed analysis, we also plot (in Figure 4) the ROC areas of the three detectors as a function of the ?intersubject? ROC area (a measure of the consistency of eye movements among human subjects [8]), for the first two fixations - which are more likely to be driven by bottom-up mechanisms than the later ones [17]. Again, discriminant saliency exhibits the strongest correlation with human performance, this happens at all levels of inter-subject consistency, and the difference is largest when the latter is strong. In this region, the performance of discriminant saliency (.85) is close to 90% of that of humans (.95), while the other two detectors only achieve close to 85% (.81). 4.2 Discriminant saliency on motion fields Similarly to the static case, center-surround discriminant saliency can produce motion-based saliency maps if combined with motion features. We have implemented a simple motion-based detector by computing a dense motion vector map (optical flow) between pairs of consecutive images, and using the magnitude of the motion vector at each location as motion feature. The probability distributions of this feature, within center and surround, were estimated with histograms, and the motion saliency maps computed with (2). 5 Figure 5: Optical flow-based saliency in the presence of egomotion. Despite the simplicity of our motion representation, the discriminant saliency detector exhibits interesting performance. Figure 5 shows several frames (top row) from a video sequence, and their discriminant motion saliency maps (bottom row). The sequence depicts a leopard running in a grassland, which is tracked by a moving camera. This results in significant variability of the background, due to egomotion, making the detection of foreground motion (leopard), a non-trivial task. As shown in the saliency maps, discriminant saliency successfully disregards the egomotion component of the optical flow, detecting the leopard as most salient. 4.3 Discriminant Saliency with dynamic background While the results of Figure 5 are probably within the reach of previously proposed saliency models, they illustrate the flexibility of discriminant saliency. In this section we move to a domain where traditional saliency algorithms almost invariably fail. This consists of videos of scenes with complex and dynamic backgrounds (e.g. water waves, or tree leaves). In order to capture the motion patterns characteristic of these backgrounds it is necessary to rely on reasonably sophisticated probabilistic models, such as the dynamic texture model [5]. Such models are very difficult to fit in the conventional, e.g. difference-based, saliency frameworks but naturally compatible with the discriminant saliency hypothesis. We next combine discriminant center-surround saliency with the dynamic texture model, to produce a background-subtraction algorithm for scenes with complex background dynamics. While background subtraction is a classic problem in computer vision, there has been relatively little progress for these type of scenes (e.g. see [15] for a review). A dynamic texture (DT) [5, 3] is an autoregressive, generative model for video. It models the spatial component of the video and the underlying temporal dynamics as two stochastic processes. A video n m is represented as a time-evolving state process xt ? R , and the appearance of a frame yt ? R is a linear function of the current state vector with some observation noise. The system equations are xt = Axt?1 + vt yt = Cxt + wt n?n (3) m?n where A ? R is the state transition matrix, C ? R is the observation matrix. The state and observation noise are given by vt ?iid N (0, Q,) and wt ?iid N (0, R), respectively. Finally, the initial condition is distributed as x1 ? N (?, S). Given a sequence of images, the parameters of the dynamic texture can be learned for the center and surround regions at each image location, enabling a probabilistic description of the video, with which the mutual information of (2) can be evaluated. We applied the dynamic texture-based discriminant saliency (DTDS) detector to three video sequences containing objects moving in water. The first (Water-Bottle from [23]) depicts a bottle floating in water which is hit by rain drops, as shown in Figure 7(a). The second and third, Boat and Surfer, are composed of boats/surfers moving in water, and shown in Figure 8(a) and 9(a). These sequences are more challenging, since the micro-texture of the water surface is superimposed on a lower frequency sweeping wave (Surfer) and interspersed with high frequency components due to turbulent wakes (created by the boat, surfer, and crest of the sweeping wave). Figures 7(b), 8(b) and 9(b), show the saliency maps produced by discriminant saliency for the three sequences. The DTDS detector performs surprisingly well, in all cases, at detecting the foreground objects while ignoring the movements of the background. In fact, the DTDS detector is close to an ideal backgroundsubtraction algorithm for these scenes. 6 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Detection rate (DR) 1 Detection rate (DR) Detection rate (DR) 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 False positive rate (FPR) (a) 0.4 0.2 Discriminant Salliency GMM 0 0 0.6 Discriminant Saliency GMM 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 False positive rate (FPR) (b) Discriminant Salliency GMM 1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 False positive rate (FPR) (c) Figure 6: Performance of background subtraction algorithms on: (a) Water-Bottle, (b) Boat, and (c) Surfer. (a) (b) (c) Figure 7: Results on Bottle: (a) original; b) discriminant saliency with DT; and c) GMM model of [16, 24]. For comparison, we present the output of a state-of-the-art background subtraction algorithm, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) [16, 24]. As can be seen in Figures 7(c), 8(c) and 9(c), the resulting foreground detection is very noisy, and cannot adapt to the highly dynamic nature of the water surface. Note, in particular, that the waves produced by boat and surfer, as well as the sweeping wave crest, create serious difficulties for this algorithm. Unlike the saliency maps of DTDS, the resulting foreground maps would be difficult to analyze by subsequent vision (e.g. object tracking) modules. To produce a quantitative comparison of the saliency maps, these were thresholded at a large range of values. The results were compared with ground-truth foreground masks, and an ROC curve produced for each algorithm. The results are shown in Figure 6, where it is clear that while DTDS tends to do well on these videos, the GMM based background model does fairly poorly. References [1] N. D. Bruce and J. K. Tsotsos. Saliency based on information maximization. In Proc. NIPS, 2005. [2] R. Buccigrossi and E. Simoncelli. Image compression via joint statistical characterization in the wavelet domain. IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, 8:1688?1701, 1999. [3] A. B. Chan and N. Vasconcelos. Modeling, clustering, and segmenting video with mixtures of dynamic textures. IEEE Trans. PAMI, In Press. [4] M. N. Do and M. Vetterli. Wavelet-based texture retrieval using generalized gaussian density and kullback-leibler distance. IEEE Trans. Image Processing, 11(2):146?158, 2002. [5] G. Doretto, A. Chiuso, Y. N. Wu, and S. Soatto. Dynamic textures. Int. J. Comput. Vis., 51, 2003. [6] D. Gao and N. Vasconcelos. Discriminant saliency for visual recognition from cluttered scenes. In Proc. NIPS, pages 481?488, 2004. [7] D. Gao and N. Vasconcelos. Decision-theoretic saliency: computational principle, biological plausibility, and implications for neurophysiology and psychophysics. submitted to Neural Computation, 2007. [8] J. Harel, C. Koch, and P. Perona. Graph-based visual saliency. In Proc. NIPS, 2006. [9] J. Huang and D. Mumford. Statistics of Natural Images and Models. In Proc. IEEE Conf. CVPR, 1999. [10] D. H. Hubel and T. N. Wiesel. Receptive fields and functional architecture in two nonstriate visual areas (18 and 19) of the cat. J. Neurophysiol., 28:229?289, 1965. 7 (a) (b) (c) Figure 8: Results on Boats: (a) original; b) discriminant saliency with DT; and c) GMM model of [16, 24]. (a) (b) (c) Figure 9: Results on Surfer: (a) original; b) discriminant saliency with DT; and c) GMM model of [16, 24]. [11] L. Itti and C. Koch. A saliency-based search mechanism for overt and covert shifts of visual attention. Vision Research, 40:1489?1506, 2000. [12] L. Itti, C. Koch, and E. Niebur. A model of saliency-based visual attention for rapid scene analysis. IEEE Trans. PAMI, 20(11), 1998. [13] S. G. Mallat. A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition: The wavelet representation. IEEE Trans. PAMI, 11(7):674?693, 1989. [14] H. C. Nothdurft. The conspicuousness of orientation and motion contrast. Spat. Vis., 7, 1993. [15] Y. Sheikh and M. Shah. Bayesian modeling of dynamic scenes for object detection. IEEE Trans. on PAMI, 27(11):1778?92, 2005. [16] C. Stauffer and W. Grimson. Adaptive background mixture models for real-time tracking. In CVPR, pages 246?52, 1999. [17] B. W. Tatler, R. J. Baddeley, and I. D. Gilchrist. Visual correlates of fixation selection: effects of scale and time. Vision Research, 45:643?659, 2005. [18] A. Treisman and G. Gelade. A feature-integratrion theory of attention. Cognit. Psych., 12, 1980. [19] A. Treisman and S. Gormican. Feature analysis in early vision: Evidence from search asymmetries. Psychological Review, 95:14?58, 1988. [20] A. Tversky. Features of similarity. Psychol. Rev., 84, 1977. [21] N. Vasconcelos. Scalable discriminant feature selection for image retrieval. In CVPR, 2004. [22] D. Walther and C. Koch. Modeling attention to salient proto-objects. Neural Networks, 19, 2006. [23] J. Zhong and S. Sclaroff. Segmenting foreground objects from a dynamic textured background via a robust Kalman filter. In ICCV, 2003. [24] Z. Zivkovic. Improved adaptive Gaussian mixture model for background subtraction. In ICVR, 2004. 8
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Multiple-Instance Pruning For Learning Efficient Cascade Detectors Cha Zhang and Paul Viola Microsoft Research One Microsoft Way, Redmond, WA 98052 {chazhang,viola}@microsoft.com Abstract Cascade detectors have been shown to operate extremely rapidly, with high accuracy, and have important applications such as face detection. Driven by this success, cascade learning has been an area of active research in recent years. Nevertheless, there are still challenging technical problems during the training process of cascade detectors. In particular, determining the optimal target detection rate for each stage of the cascade remains an unsolved issue. In this paper, we propose the multiple instance pruning (MIP) algorithm for soft cascades. This algorithm computes a set of thresholds which aggressively terminate computation with no reduction in detection rate or increase in false positive rate on the training dataset. The algorithm is based on two key insights: i) examples that are destined to be rejected by the complete classifier can be safely pruned early; ii) face detection is a multiple instance learning problem. The MIP process is fully automatic and requires no assumptions of probability distributions, statistical independence, or ad hoc intermediate rejection targets. Experimental results on the MIT+CMU dataset demonstrate significant performance advantages. 1 Introduction The state of the art in real-time face detection has progressed rapidly in recently years. One very successful approach was initiated by Viola and Jones [11]. While some components of their work are quite simple, such as the so called ?integral image?, or the use of AdaBoost, a great deal of complexity lies in the training of the cascaded detector. There are many required parameters: the number and shapes of rectangle filters, the number of stages, the number of weak classifiers in each stage, and the target detection rate for each cascade stage. These parameters conspire to determine not only the ROC curve for the resulting system but also its computational complexity. Since the Viola-Jones training process requires CPU days to train and evaluate, it is difficult, if not impossible, to pick these parameters optimally. The conceptual and computational complexity of the training process has led to many papers proposing improvements and refinements [1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 14, 15]. Among them, three are closely related to this paper: Xiao, Zhu and Zhang[15], Sochman and Matas[9], and Bourdev and Brandt[1]. In each paper, the original cascade structure of distinct and separate stages is relaxed so that earlier computation of weak classifier scores can be combined with later weak classifiers. Bourdev and Brandt coined the term, ?soft-cascade?, where the entire detector is trained as a single strong classifier without stages (with 100?s or 1000?s of weak classifiers sometimes called ?features?). The score assigned to Pa detection window by the soft cascade is simply a weighted sum of the weak classifiers: sk (T ) = j?T ?j hj (xk ), where T is the total number of weak classifiers; hj (xk ) is the j th feature computed on example xk ; ?j is the vote on weak classifier j. Computation of the sum is terminated early whenever the partial sum falls below a rejection threshold: sk (t) < ?(t). Note the soft cascade 1 is similar to, but simpler than both the boosting chain approach of Xiao, Zhu, and Zhang and the WaldBoost approach of Sochman and Matas. The rejection thresholds ?(t), t ? {1, ? ? ? , T ? 1} are critical to the performance and speed of the complete classifier. However, it is difficult to set them optimally in practice. One possibility is to set the rejection thresholds so that no positive example is lost; this leads to very conservative thresholds and a very slow detector. Since the complete classifier will not achieve 100% detection (Note, given practical considerations, the final threshold of the complete classifier is set to reject some positive examples because they are difficult to detect. Reducing the final threshold further would admit too many false positives.), it seems justified to reject positive examples early in return for fast detection speed. The main question is which positive examples can be rejected and when. A key criticism of all previous cascade learning approaches is that none has a scheme to determine which examples are best to reject. Viola-Jones attempted to reject zero positive examples until this become impossible and then reluctantly gave up on one positive example at a time. Bourdev and Brandt proposed a method for setting rejection thresholds based on an ad hoc detection rate target called a ?rejection distribution vector?, which is a parameterized exponential curve. Like the original Viola-Jones proposal, the soft-cascade gradually gives up on a number of positive examples in an effort to aggressively reduce the number of negatives passing through the cascade. Perhaps a particular family of curves is more palatable, but it is still arbitrary and non-optimal. SochmanMatas used a ratio test to determine the rejection thresholds. While this has statistical validity, distributions must be estimated, which introduces empirical risk. This is a particular problem for the first few rejection thresholds, and can lead to low detection rates on test data. This paper proposes a new mechanism for setting the rejection thresholds of any soft-cascade which is conceptually simple, has no tunable parameters beyond the final detection rate target, yet yields a cascade which is both highly accurate and very fast. Training data is used to set all reject thresholds after the final classifier is learned. There are no assumptions about probability distributions, statistical independence, or ad hoc intermediate targets for detection rate (or false positive rate). The approach is based on two key insights that constitute the major contributions of this paper: 1) positive examples that are rejected by the complete classifier can be safely rejected earlier during pruning; 2) each ground-truth face requires no more than one matched detection window to maintain the classifier?s detection rate. We propose a novel algorithm, multiple instance pruning (MIP), to set the reject thresholds automatically, which results in a very efficient cascade detector with superior performance. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes an algorithm which makes use of the final classification results to perform pruning. Multiple instance pruning is presented in Section 3. Experimental results and conclusions are given in Section 4 and 5, respectively. 2 Pruning Using the Final Classification We propose a scheme which is simultaneously simpler and more effective than earlier techniques. Our key insight is quite simple: the reject thresholds are set so that they give up on precisely those positive examples which are rejected by the complete classifier. Note that the score of each example, sk (t) can be considered a trajectory through time. The full classifier rejects a positive example if its final score sk (T ) falls below the final threshold ?(T ). In the simplest version of our threshold setting algorithm, all trajectories from positive windows which fall below the final threshold are removed. Each rejection threshold is then simply: ?(t) = ? ? min ? sk (t) k?sk (T )>?(T ),yk =1 where {xk , yk } is the training set in which yk = 1 indicates positive windows and yk = ?1 indicates negative windows. These thresholds produce a reasonably fast classifier which is guaranteed to produce no more errors than the complete classifier (on the training dataset). We call this pruning algorithm direct backward pruning (DBP). One might question whether the minimum of all retained trajectories is robust to mislabeled or noisy examples in the training set. Note that the final threshold of the complete classifier will often reject mislabeled or noisy examples (though they will be considered false negatives). These rejected 2 10 Positive W indows Negative W indows Positive windows but below threshold Positive windows above threshold Positive windows retained after pruning Cumulative Score 5 0 Final Threshold -5 -10 -15 -20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Feature Index Figure 1: Traces of cumulative scores of different windows in an image of a face. See text. examples play no role in setting the rejection thresholds. We have found this procedure very robust to the types of noise present in real training sets. In past approaches, thresholds are set to reject the largest number of negative examples and only a small percentage of positive examples. These approaches justify these thresholds in different ways, but they all struggle to determine the correct percentage accurately and effectively. In the new approach, the final threshold of the complete soft-cascade is set to achieve the require detection rate. Rejection thresholds are then set to reject the largest number of negative examples and retain all positive examples which are retained by the complete classifier. The important difference is that the particular positive examples which are rejected are those which are destined to be rejected by the final classifier. This yields a fast classifier which labels all positive examples in exactly the same way as the complete classifier. In fact, it yields the fastest possible soft-cascade with such property (provided the weak classifiers are not re-ordered). Note, some negative examples that eventually pass the complete classifier threshold may be pruned by earlier rejection thresholds. This has the satisfactory side benefit of reducing false positive rate as well. In contrast, although the detection rate on the training set can also be guaranteed in Bourdev-Brandt?s algorithm, there is no guarantee that false positive rate will not increase. Bourdev-Brandt propose reordering the weak classifiers based on the separation between the mean score of the positive examples and the mean score of the negative examples. Our approach is equally applicable to a reordered soft-cascade. Figure 1 shows 293 trajectories from a single image whose final score is above -15. While the rejection thresholds are learned using a large set of training examples, this one image demonstrates the basic concepts. The red trajectories are negative windows. The single physical face is consistent with a set of positive detection windows that are within an acceptable range of positions and scales. Typically there are tens of acceptable windows for each face. The blue and magenta trajectories correspond to acceptable windows which fall above the final detection threshold. The cyan trajectories are potentially positive windows which fall below the final threshold. Since the cyan trajectories are rejected by the final classifier, rejection thresholds need only retain the blue and magenta trajectories. In a sense the complete classifier, along with a threshold which sets the operating point, provides labels on examples which are more valuable than the ground-truth labels. There will always be a set of ?positive? examples which are extremely difficult to detect, or worse which are mistakenly labeled positive. In practice the final threshold of the complete classifier will be set so that these particular examples are rejected. In our new approach these particular examples can be rejected early in the computation of the cascade. Compared with existing approaches, that set the reject thresholds in a heuristic manner, our approach is data-driven and hence more principled. 3 Multiple Instance Pruning The notion of an ?acceptable detection window? plays a critical role in an improved process for setting rejection thresholds. It is difficult to define the correct position and scale of a face in an image. 3 For a purely upright and frontal face, one might propose the smallest rectangle which includes the chin, forehead, and the inner edges of the ears. But, as we include a range of non-upright and non-frontal faces these rectangles can vary quite a bit. Should the correct window be a function of apparent head size? Or is eye position and interocular distance more reliable? Even given clear instructions, one finds that two subjects will differ significantly in their ?ground-truth? labels. Recall that the detection process scans the image generating a large, but finite, collection of overlapping windows at various scales and locations. Even in the absence of ambiguity, some slop is required to ensure that at least one of the generated windows is considered a successful detection for each face. Experiments typically declare that any window which is within 50% in size and within a distance of 50% (of size) be considered a true positive. Using typical scanning parameters this can lead to tens of windows which are all equally valid positive detections. If any of these windows is classified positive then this face is consider detected. Even though all face detection algorithms must address the ?multiple window? issue, few papers have discussed it. Two papers which have fundamentally integrated this observation into the training process are Nowlan and Platt [6] and more recently by Viola, Platt, and Zhang [12]. These papers proposed a multiple instance learning (MIL) framework where the positive examples are collected into ?bags?. The learning algorithm is then given the freedom to select at least one, and perhaps more examples, in each bag as the true positive examples. In this paper, we do not directly address soft-cascade learning, though we will incorporate the ?multiple window? observation into the determination of the rejection thresholds. One need only retain one ?acceptable? window for each face which is detected by the final classifier. A more aggressive threshold is defined as: ? ? ?(t) = min ?? ? max ? sk (t)? i?P k?k?Fi ?Ri ,yk =1 where i is the index of ground-truth faces; Fi is the set of acceptable windows associated with ground-truth face i and Ri is the set of windows which are ?retained? (see below). P is the set of ground-truth faces that have at least one acceptable window above the final threshold: ?? ? P = i? ? max ? ? sk (T ) > ?(T ) k?k?Fi In this new procedure the acceptable windows come in bags, only one of which must be classified positive in order to ensure that each face is successfully detected. This new criteria for success is more flexible and therefore more aggressive. We call this pruning method multiple instance pruning (MIP). Returning to Figure 1 we can see that the blue, cyan, and magenta trajectories actually form a ?bag?. Both in this algorithm, and in the simpler previous algorithm, the cyan trajectories are rejected before the computation of the thresholds. The benefit of this new algorithm is that the blue trajectories can be rejected as well. The definition of ?retained? examples in the computation above is a bit more complex than before. Initially the trajectories from the positive bags which fall above the final threshold are retained. The set of retained examples is further reduced as the earlier thresholds are set. This is in contrast to the simpler DBP algorithm where the thresholds are set to preserve all retained positive examples. In the new algorithm the partial score of an example can fall below the current threshold (because it is in a bag with a better example). Each such example is removed from the retained set Ri and not used to set subsequent thresholds. The pseudo code of the MIP algorithm is shown in Figure 2. It guarantees the same face detection rate on the training dataset as the complete classifier. Note that the algorithm is greedy, setting earlier thresholds first so that all positive bags are retained and the fewest number of negative examples pass. Theoretically it is possible that delaying the rejection of a particular example may result in a better threshold at a later stage. Searching for the optimal MIP pruned detector, however, may be quite expensive. The MIP algorithm is however guaranteed to generate a soft-cascade that is at least as fast as DBP, since the criteria for setting the thresholds is less restrictive. 4 Input ? A cascade detector. ? Threshold ?(T ) at the final stage of the detector. ? A large training set (the whole training set to learn the cascade detector can be reused here). Initialize ? Run the detector on all rectangles that match with any ground-truth faces. Collect all windows that are above the final threshold ?(T ). Record all intermediate scores as s(i, j, t), where i = 1, ? ? ? , N is the face index; j = 1, ? ? ? , Mi is the index of windows that match with face i; t = 1, ? ? ? , T is the index of the feature node. ? Initialize flags f (i, j) as true. MIP For t = 1, ? ? ? , T : 1. For i = 1, ? ? ? , N : find s?(i, t) = max{j|f (i,j)=true} s(i, j, t). 2. Set ?(t) = mini s?(i, t) ? ? as the rejection threshold of node t, ? = 10?6 . 3. For i = 1, ? ? ? , N, j = 1, ? ? ? , Mi : set f (i, j) as false if s(i, j, t) < ?(t). Output Rejection thresholds ?(t), t = 1, ? ? ? , T . Figure 2: The MIP algorithm. (a) (b) Figure 3: (a) Performance comparison with existing works on MIT+CMU frontal face dataset. (b) ROC curves of the detector after MIP pruning using the original training set. No performance degradation is found on the MIT+CMU testing dataset. 4 Experimental Results More than 20,000 images were collected from the web, containing roughly 10,000 faces. Over 2 billion negative examples are generated from the same image set. A soft cascade classifier is learned through a new framework based on weight trimming and bootstrapping (see Appendix). The training process was conducted on a dual core AMD Opteron 2.2 GHz processor with 16 GB of RAM. It takes less than 2 days to train a classifier with 700 weak classifiers based on the Haar features [11]. The testing set is the standard MIT+CMU frontal face database [10, 7], which consists of 125 grayscale images containing 483 labeled frontal faces. A detected rectangle is considered to be a true detection if it has less than 50% variation in shift and scale from the ground-truth. It is difficult to compare the performance of various detectors, since every detector is trained on a different dataset. Nevertheless, we show the ROC curves of a number of existing detectors and ours in Figure 3(a). Note there are two curves plotted for soft cascade. The first curve has very good performance, at the cost of slow speed (average 37.1 features per window). The classification accuracy dropped significantly in the second curve, which is faster (average 25 features per window). 5 Final Threshold -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 88.8% Detection Rate 95.2% 94.6% 93.2% 92.5% 91.7% 90.3% # of False Positive 95 51 32 20 8 7 5 DBP 36.13 35.78 35.76 34.93 29.22 28.91 26.72 MIP 16.11 16.06 16.80 18.60 16.96 15.53 14.59 (a) Approach Viola-Jones Boosting chain FloatBoost WaldBoost Wu et al. Total # of features 6061 700 2546 600 756 Soft cascade 4943 Slowness 10 18.1 18.9 13.9 N/A 37.1 (25) (b) Figure 4: (a) Pruning performance of DBP and MIP. The bottom two rows indicate the average number of features visited per window on the MIT+CMU dataset. (b) Results of existing work. Figure 4(a) compares DBP and MIP with different final thresholds of the strong classifier. The original data set for learning the soft cascade is reused for pruning the detector. Since MIP is a more aggressive pruning method, the average number of features evaluated is much lower than DBP. Note both DBP and MIP guarantee that no positive example from the training set is lost. There is no similar guarantee for test data, though. Figure 3(b) shows that there is no practical loss in classification accuracy on the MIT+CMU test dataset for various applications of the MIP algorithm (note that the MIT+CMU data is not used by the training process in any way). Speed comparison with other algorithms are subtle (Figure 4(b)). The first observation is that higher detection rates almost always require the evaluation of additional features. This is certainly true in our experiments, but it is also true in past papers (e.g., the two curves of Bourdev-Brandt soft cascade in Figure 3(a)). The fastest algorithms often cannot achieve very high detection rates. One explanation is that in order to achieve higher detection rates one must retain windows which are ?ambiguous? and may contain faces. The proposed MIP-based detector yields a much lower false positive rate than the 25-feature Bourdev-Brandt soft cascade and nearly 35% improvement on detection speed. While the WaldBoost algorithm is quite fast, detection rates are measurably lower. Detectors such as Viola-Jones, boosting chain, FloatBoost, and Wu et al. all requires manual tuning. We can only guess how much trial and error went into getting a fast detector that yields good results. The expected computation time of the DBP soft-cascade varies monotonically in detection rate. This is guaranteed by the algorithm. In experiments with MIP we found a surprising quirk in the expected computation times. One would expect that if the required detection rate is higher, it world be more difficult to prune. In MIP, when the detection rate increases, there are two conflicting factors involved. First, the number of detected faces increases, which increases the difficulty of pruning. Second, for each face the number of retained and acceptable windows increases. Since we are computing the maximum of this larger set, MIP can in some cases be more aggressive. The second factor explains the increase of speed when the final threshold changes from -1.5 to -2.0. The direct performance comparison between MIP and Bourdev-Brandt (B-B) was performed using the same soft-cascade and the same data. In order to better measure performance differences we created a larger test set containing 3,859 images with 3,652 faces collected from the web. Both algorithms prune the strong classifier for a target detection rate of 97.2% on the training set, which corresponds to having a final threshold of ?2.5 in Figure 4(a). We use the same exponential function family as [1] for B-B, and adjust the control parameter ? in the range between ?16 and 4. The results are shown in Figure 5. It can be seen that the MIP pruned detector has the best detection performance. When a positive ? is used (e.g., ? = 4), the B-B pruned detector is still worse than the MIP pruned detector, and its speed is 5 times slower (56.83 vs. 11.25). On the other hand, when ? is negative, the speed of B-B pruned detectors improves and can be faster than MIP (e.g., when ? = ?16). Note, adjusting ? leads to changes both in detection time and false positive rate. In practice, both MIP and B-B can be useful. MIP is fully automated and guarantees detection rate with no increase in false positive rate on the training set. The MIP pruned strong classifier is usually fast enough for most real-world applications. On the other hand, if speed is the dominant factor, one can specify a target detection rate and target execution time and use B-B to find a solution. 6 0.909 0.907 Detection Rate 0.905 0.903 0.901 MIP, T=-2.5, #f=11.25 B-B, alpha=-16, #f=8.46 B-B, alpha=-8, #f=10.22 B-B, alpha=-4, #f=13.17 B-B, alpha=0, #f=22.75 B-B, alpha=4, #f=56.83 0.899 0.897 0.895 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 Number of False Positive 1500 1600 Figure 5: The detector performance comparison after applying MIP and Bourdev-Brandt?s method [1]. Note, this test was done using a much larger, and more difficult, test set than MIT+CMU. In the legend, symbol #f represents the average number of weak classifiers visited per window. Note such a solution is not guaranteed, and the false positive rate may be unacceptably high (The performance degradation of B-B heavily depends on the given soft-cascade. While with our detector the performance of B-B is acceptable even when ? = ?16, the performance of the detector in [1] drops significantly from 37 features to 25 features, as shown in Fig. 3 (a).). 5 Conclusions We have presented a simple yet effective way to set the rejection thresholds of a given soft-cascade, called multiple instance pruning (MIP). The algorithm begins with a conventional strong classifier and an associated final threshold. MIP then adds a set of rejection thresholds to construct a cascade detector. The rejection thresholds are determined so that every face which was detected by the original strong classifier is guaranteed to be detected by the soft cascade. The algorithm also guarantees that the false positive rate on the training set will not increase. There is only one parameter used throughout the cascade training process, the target detection rate for the final system. Moreover, there are no required assumptions about probability distributions, statistical independence, or ad hoc intermediate targets for detection rate or false positive rate. Appendix: Learn Soft Cascade with Weight Trimming and Bootstrapping We present an algorithm for learning a strong classifier from a very large set of training examples. In order to deal with the many millions of examples, the learning algorithm uses both weight trimming and bootstrapping. Weight trimming was proposed by Friedman, Hastie and Tibshirani [3]. At each round of boosting it ignores training examples with the smallest weights, up to a percentage of the total weight which can be between 1% and 10%. Since the weights are typically very skewed toward a small number of hard examples, this can eliminate a very large number of examples. It was shown that weight trimming can dramatically reduce computation for boosted methods without sacrificing accuracy. In weight trimming no example is discarded permanently, therefore it is ideal for learning a soft cascade. The algorithm is described in Figure 6. In step 4, a set A is predefined to reduce the number of weight updates on the whole training set. One can in theory update the scores of the whole training set after each feature is learned if computationally affordable, though the gain in detector performance may not be visible.Note, a set of thresholds are also returned by this process (making the result a softcascade). These preliminary rejection thresholds are extremely conservative, retaining all positive examples in the training set. They result in a very slow detector ? the average number of features visited per window is on the order of hundreds. These thresholds will be replaced with the ones derived by the MIP algorithm. We set the preliminary thresholds only to moderately speed up the computation of ROC curves before MIP. 7 Input ? Training examples (x1 , y1 ), ? ? ? , (xK , yK ), where yk = ?1, 1 for negative and positive examples. K is on the order of billions. ? T is the total number of weak classifiers, which can be set through cross-validation. Initialize ? Take all positive examples and randomly sample negative examples to form a subset of Q examples. Q = 4 ? 106 in the current implementation. ? Initialize weights ?1,i to guarantee weight balance between positive and negative examples on the sampled dataset. ? Define A as the set {2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 192, 256, ? ? ?}. Adaboost Learning For t = 1, ? ? ? , T : 1. For each rectangle filter in the pool, construct a weak classifier that minimizes the Z score [8] under the current set of weights ?t,i , i ? Q. 2. Select the best classifier ht with the minimum Z score, find the associated confidences ?t . 3. Update weights of all Q sampled examples. 4. If t ? A, ? Update weights of the whole training set using the previously selected classifiers h1 , ? ? ? , ht . ? Perform weight trimming [3] to trim 10% of the negative weights. ? Take all positive examples and randomly sample negative examples from the trimmed training set to form a new subset of Q examples. Pt 5. Set preliminary rejection threshold ?(t) of ? h as the minimum score of all positive j=1 j j examples at stage t. Output Weak classifiers ht , t = 1, ? ? ? , T , the associated confidences ?t and preliminary rejection thresholds ?(t). Figure 6: Adaboost learning with weight trimming and booststrapping. References [1] L. Bourdev and J. Brandt. Robust object detection via soft cascade. In Proc. of CVPR, 2005. [2] S. C. Brubaker, M. D. Mullin, and J. M. Rehg. Towards optimal training of cascaded detectors. In Proc. of ECCV, 2006. [3] J. Friedman, T. Hastie, and R. Tibshirani. Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting. Technical report, Dept. of Statistics, Stanford University, 1998. [4] S. Li, L. Zhu, Z. Zhang, A. Blake, H. Zhang, and H. Shum. Statistical learning of multi-view face detection. In Proc. of ECCV, 2002. [5] H. Luo. Optimization design of cascaded classifiers. In Proc. of CVPR, 2005. [6] S. J. Nowlan and J. C. Platt. A convolutional neural network hand tracker. In Proc. of NIPS, volume 7, 1995. [7] H. Rowley, S. Baluja, and T. Kanade. Neural network-based face detection. IEEE Trans. on PAMI, 20:23?38, 1998. [8] R. E. Schapire and Y. Singer. Improved boosting algorithms using confidence-rated predictions. Machine Learning, 37:297?336, 1999. [9] J. Sochman and J. Matas. Waldboost - learning for time constrained sequential detection. In Proc. of CVPR, 2005. [10] K. Sung and T. Poggio. Example-based learning for view-based face detection. IEEE Trans. on PAMI, 20:39?51, 1998. [11] P. Viola and M. Jones. Rapid object detection using a boosted cascade of simple features. In Proc. of CVPR, 2001. [12] P. Viola, J. C. Platt, and C. Zhang. Multiple instance boosting for object detection. In Proc. of NIPS, volume 18, 2006. [13] B. Wu, H. Ai, C. Huang, and S. Lao. Fast rotation invariant multi-view face detection based on real adaboost. In Proc. of IEEE Automatic Face and Gesture Recognition, 2004. [14] J. Wu, J. M. Rehg, and M. D. Mullin. Learning a rare event detection cascade by direct feature selection. In Proc. of NIPS, volume 16, 2004. [15] R. Xiao, L. Zhu, and H. Zhang. Boosting chain learning for object detection. In Proc. of ICCV, 2003. 8
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Bayesian Agglomerative Clustering with Coalescents Yee Whye Teh Gatsby Unit University College London Hal Daum?e III School of Computing University of Utah Daniel Roy CSAIL MIT [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman?s coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over the state-of-the-art, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics. 1 Introduction Hierarchically structured data abound across a wide variety of domains. It is thus not surprising that hierarchical clustering is a traditional mainstay of machine learning [1]. The dominant approach to hierarchical clustering is agglomerative: start with one cluster per datum, and greedily merge pairs until a single cluster remains. Such algorithms are efficient and easy to implement. Their primary limitations?a lack of predictive semantics and a coherent mechanism to deal with missing data? can be addressed by probabilistic models that handle partially observed data, quantify goodness-offit, predict on new data, and integrate within more complex models, all in a principled fashion. Currently there are two main approaches to probabilistic models for hierarchical clustering. The first takes a direct Bayesian approach by defining a prior over trees followed by a distribution over data points conditioned on a tree [2, 3, 4, 5]. MCMC sampling is then used to obtain trees from their posterior distribution given observations. This approach has the advantages and disadvantages of most Bayesian models: averaging over sampled trees can improve predictive capabilities, give confidence estimates for conclusions drawn from the hierarchy, and share statistical strength across the model; but it is also computationally demanding and complex to implement. As a result such models have not found widespread use. [2] has the additional advantage that the distribution induced on the data points is exchangeable, so the model can be coherently extended to new data. The second approach uses a flat mixture model as the underlying probabilistic model and structures the posterior hierarchically [6, 7]. This approach uses an agglomerative procedure to find the tree giving the best posterior approximation, mirroring traditional agglomerative clustering techniques closely and giving efficient and easy to implement algorithms. However because the underlying model has no hierarchical structure, there is no sharing of information across the tree. We propose a novel class of Bayesian hierarchical clustering models and associated inference algorithms combining the advantages of both probabilistic approaches above. 1) We define a prior and compute the posterior over trees, thus reaping the benefits of a fully Bayesian approach; 2) the distribution over data is hierarchically structured allowing for sharing of statistical strength; 3) we have efficient and easy to implement inference algorithms that construct trees agglomeratively; and 4) the induced distribution over data points is exchangeable. Our model is based on an exchangeable distribution over trees called Kingman?s coalescent [8, 9]. Kingman?s coalescent is a standard model from population genetics for the genealogy of a set of individuals. It is obtained by tracing the genealogy backwards in time, noting when lineages coalesce together. We review Kingman?s coalescent in Section 2. Our own contribution is in using it as a prior over trees in a hierarchical clustering model (Section 3) and in developing novel inference procedures for this model (Section 4). (a) x1 y{1,2} x2 y{1,2,3,4} z x3 y{3,4} ?3 ?? t3 ?(t) = {{1, 2, 3, 4}} ?2 t2 {{1, 2}, {3, 4}} x4 ?1 t0 = 0 t1 {{1}, {2}, {3, 4}} {{1}, {2}, {3}, {4}} (b) (c) !") #&' ! # &") $&' & $ !&") %&' !! % !!") !%&' !% !$ !%") !$&' !( !!"# !!"$ !!"% !! !&"' !&"# !&"$ !&"% & t !# !! !" !# !$ % $ Figure 1: (a) Variables describing the n-coalescent. (b) Sample path from a Brownian diffusion coalescent process in 1D, circles are coalescent points. (c) Sample observed points from same in 2D, notice the hierarchically clustered nature of the points. 2 Kingman?s coalescent Kingman?s coalescent is a standard model in population genetics describing the common genealogy (ancestral tree) of a set of individuals [8, 9]. In its full form it is a distribution over the genealogy of a countably infinite set of individuals. Like other nonparametric models (e.g. Gaussian and Dirichlet processes), Kingman?s coalescent is most easily described and understood in terms of its finite dimensional marginal distributions over the genealogies of n individuals, called n-coalescents. We obtain Kingman?s coalescent as n ? ?. Consider the genealogy of n individuals alive at the present time t = 0. We can trace their ancestry backwards in time to the distant past t = ??. Assume each individual has one parent (in genetics, haploid organisms), and therefore genealogies of [n] = {1, ..., n} form a directed forest. In general, at time t ? 0, there are m (1 ? m ? n) ancestors alive. Identify these ancestors with their corresponding sets ?1 , ..., ?m of descendants (we will make this identification throughout the paper). Note that ?(t) = {?1 , ..., ?m } form a partition of [n], and interpret t 7? ?(t) as a function from (??, 0] to the set of partitions of [n]. This function is piecewise constant, left-continuous, monotonic (s ? t implies that ?(t) is a refinement of ?(s)), and ?(0) = {{1}, ..., {n}} (see Figure 1a). Further, ? completely and succinctly characterizes the genealogy; we shall henceforth refer to ? as the genealogy of [n]. Kingman?s n-coalescent is simply a distribution over genealogies of [n], or equivalently, over the space of partition-valued functions like ?. More specifically, the n-coalescent is a continuous-time, partition-valued, Markov process, which starts at {{1}, ..., {n}} at present time t = 0, and evolves backwards in time, merging (coalescing) lineages until only one is left. To describe the Markov process in its entirety, it is sufficient to describe the jump process (i.e. the embedded, discrete-time, Markov chain over partitions) and the distribution over coalescent times. Both are straightforward and their simplicity is part of the appeal of Kingman?s coalescent. Let ?li , ?ri be the ith pair of lineages to coalesce, tn?1 < ? ? ?< t1 < t0 = 0 be the coalescent times and ?i = ti?1 ?ti > 0 be the duration between adjacent events (see Figure 1a). Under the n-coalescent, every pair of lineages merges independently with exponential rate 1. Thus the first pair amongst m lineages merge with  m(m?1)  . Therefore ?i ? Exp n?i+1 independently, the pair ?li , ?ri is chosen from rate m 2 = 2 2 among those right after time ti , and with probability one a random draw from the n-coalescent is a binary tree with a single root at t = ?? and the n individuals at time t = 0. The genealogy is: ? if t = 0; ?{{1}, ..., {n}} ?(t) = ?ti?1 ? ?li ? ?ri + (?li ? ?ri ) if t = ti ; (1) ? ? ti if ti+1 < t < ti . Combining the probabilities of the durations and choices of lineages, the probability of ? is simply:    n?i+1 Qn?1   Qn?1 p(?) = i=1 n?i+1 exp ? n?i+1 ?i / 2 = i=1 exp ? n?i+1 ?i (2) 2 2 2 The n-coalescent has some interesting statistical properties [8, 9]. The marginal distribution over tree topologies is uniform and independent of the coalescent times. Secondly, it is infinitely exchangeable: given a genealogy drawn from an n-coalescent, the genealogy of any m contemporary individuals alive at time t ? 0 embedded within the genealogy is a draw from the m-coalescent. Thus, taking n ? ?, there is a distribution over genealogies of a countably infinite population for which the marginal distribution of the genealogy of any n individuals gives the n-coalescent. Kingman called this the coalescent. 3 Hierarchical clustering with coalescents We take a Bayesian approach to hierarchical clustering, placing a coalescent prior on the latent tree and modeling the observed data with a tree structured Markov process evolving forward in time. We will alter our terminology from genealogy to tree, from n individuals at present time to n observed data points, and from individuals on the genealogy to latent variables on the tree-structured distribution. Let x = {x1 , ..., xn } be n observed data points at the leaves of a tree ? drawn from the n-coalescent. ? has n ? 1 coalescent points, the ith occuring when ?li and ?ri merge at time ti to form ?i = ?li ? ?ri . Let tli and tri be the times at which ?li and ?ri are themselves formed. We use a continuous-time Markov process to define the distribution over the n data points x given the tree ?. The Markov process starts in the distant past, evolves forward in time, splits at each coalescent point, and evolves independently down both branches until we reach time 0, when n data points are observations of the process at the n leaves of the tree. The joint distribution described by this process respects the conditional independences implied by the structure of the directed tree ?. Let y?i be a latent variable that takes on the value of the Markov process at ?i just before it splitsLet y{i} = xi at leaf i. See Figure 1a. To complete the description of the likelihood model, let q(z) be the initial distribution of the Markov process at time t = ??, and kst (x, y) be the transition probability from state x at time s to state y at time t. This Markov process need be neither stationary nor ergodic. Marginalizing over paths of the Markov process, the joint probability over the latent variables and the observations is: Qn?1 p(x, y, z|?) = q(z)k?? tn?1 (z, y?n?1 ) i=1 kti tli (y?i , y?li )kti tri (y?i , y?ri ) (3) Notice that the marginal distributions for each observation p(xi |?) are identical and given by the Markov process at time 0. However the observations are not independent as they share the same sample path down the Markov process until it splits. In fact the amount of dependence between two observations is a function of the time at which the observations coalesce. A more recent coalescent time implies larger dependence. The overall distribution induced on the observations p(x) inherits the infinite exchangeability of the n-coalescent. We consider in Section 4.3 a brownian diffusion (Figures 1(b,c)) and a simple independent sites mutation process on multinomial vectors. 4 Agglomerative sequential Monte Carlo and greedy inference We develop two classes of efficient and easily implementable inference algorithms for our hierarchical clustering model based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and greedy schemes respectively. In both classes, the latent variables are integrated out, and the trees are constructed in a bottom-up fashion. The full tree ? can be expressed as a series of n ? 1 coalescent events, ordered backwards in time. The ith coalescent event involves the merging of the two subtrees with leaves ?li and ?ri and occurs at a time ?i before the previous coalescent event. Let ?i = {?j , ?lj , ?rj for j ? i} denote the first i coalescent events. ?n?1 is equivalent to ? and we shall use them interchangeably. We assume that the form of the Markov process is such that the latent variables {y?i }n?1 i=1 and z can be efficiently integrated out using an upward pass of belief propagation on the tree. Let M?i (y) be the message passed from y?i to its parent; M{i} (y) = ?xi (y) is point mass at xi for leaf i. M?i (y) is proportional to the likelihood of the observations at the leaves below coalescent event i, given that y?i = y. Belief propagation computes the messages recursively up the tree; for i = 1, ..., n ? 1: R Q M?i (y) = Z??1 (x, ?i ) b=l,r kti tbi (y, yb )M?bi (yb ) dyb (4) i where Z?i (x, ?i ) is a normalization constant. The choice of Z does not affect the computed probability of x, but RR does impact the accuracy and efficiency of our inference algorithms. We found that Z?i (x, ?i ) = q(z)k??ti (z, y)M?i (y) dy dz worked well. At the root, we have: RR Z?? (x, ?n?1 ) = q(z)k?? tn?1 (z, y)M?n?1 (y) dy dz (5) The marginal probability p(x|?) is now given by the product of normalization constants: Qn?1 p(x|?) = Z?? (x, ?n?1 ) i=1 Z?i (x, ?i ) (6) Multiplying in the prior (2) over ?, we get the joint probability for the tree ? and observations x:   Qn?1 p(x, ?) = Z?? (x, ?n?1 ) i=1 exp ? n?i+1 ?i Z?i (x, ?i ) (7) 2 Our inference algorithms are based upon (7). The sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms approximate the posterior over the tree ?n?1 using a weighted sum of samples, while the greedy algorithms construct ?n?1 by maximizing local terms in (7). Both proceeds by iterating over i = 1, ..., n ? 1, choosing a duration ?i and a pair of subtrees ?li , ?ri to coalesce at each iteration. This choice is  ?i and a based upon the ith term in (7), interpreted as the product of a local prior exp ? n?i+1 2 local likelihood Z?i (x, ?i ) for choosing ?i , ?li and ?ri given ?i?1 . 4.1 Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms SMC algorithms approximate the posterior by iteratively constructing a weighted sum of point s masses. At iteration i ? 1, particle s consists of ?i?1 = {?js , ?slj , ?srj for j < i}, and has weight s s wi?1 . At iteration i, s is extended by sampling ?i , ?sli and ?sri from a proposal distribution s fi (?is , ?sli , ?sri |?i?1 ), and the weight is updated by:  s s s ?i Z?i (x, ?is )/fi (?is , ?sli , ?sri |?i?1 ) (8) wis = wi?1 exp ? n?i+1 2 s s After n ? 1 iterations, we obtain Pa sets of trees ?n?1 and weights wn?1 . The joint distribution s is approximated by: p(?, x) ? s wn?1 ??n?1 (?), while the posterior is approximated with the weights normalized. An important aspect of SMC is resampling, which places more particles in high probability regions and prunes particles stuck in low probability regions. We resample as in Algorithm 5.1 of [10] when the effective sample size ratio as estimated in [11] falls below one half. SMC-PriorPrior. The simplest proposal distribution is to sample ?is , ?sli and ?sri from the local s s s n?i+1 prior. ?i is drawn from an exponential with rate and ?li , ?ri are drawn uniformly from 2 all available pairs. The weight updates (8) reduce to multiplying by Z?i (x, ?is ). This approach is computationally very efficient, but performs badly with many objects due to the uniform draws over pairs. SMC-PriorPost. The second approach addresses the suboptimal choice of pairs to coalesce. We first draw ?is from its local prior, then draw ?sli , ?sri from the local posterior: P s s s s s 0 0 fi (?sli , ?sri |?is , ?i?1 ) ? Z?i (x, ?i?1 , ?is , ?sli , ?sri ); wis = wi?1 ?0 ,?0 Z?i (x, ?i?1 , ?i , ?l , ?r ) (9) l r This approach is more computationally demanding since we need to evaluate the local likelihood of every pair. It also performs significantly better than SMC-PriorPrior. We have found that it works reasonably well for small data sets but fails in larger ones for which the local posterior for ?i is highly peaked. SMC-PostPost. The third approach is to draw all of ?is , ?sli and ?sri from their posterior:  s s s ?i Z?i (x, ?i?1 , ?is , ?sli , ?sri ) fi (?is , ?sli , ?sri |?i?1 ) ? exp ? n?i+1 2   R P s s wis = wi?1 exp ? n?i+1 ? 0 Z?i (x, ?i?1 , ? 0 , ?0l , ?0r ) d? 0 (10) ?0 ,?0r 2 l This approach requires the fewest particles, but is the most computationally expensive due to the integral for each pair. Fortunately, for the case of Brownian diffusion process described below, these integrals are tractable and related to generalized inverse Gaussian distributions. 4.2 Greedy algorithms SMC algorithms are attractive because they can produce an arbitrarily accurate approximation to the full posterior as the number of samples grow. However in many applications a single good tree is often sufficient. We describe a few greedy algorithms to construct a good tree. Greedy-MaxProb: the obvious greedy algorithm is to pick ?i , ?li and ?ri maximizing the ith term in (7). We do so by computing the optimal ?i for each pair of ?li , ?ri , and then picking the pair maximizing the ith term at its optimal ?i . Greedy-MinDuration: pick the pair to coalesce whose optimal duration is minimum. Both algorithmsrequire recomputing the optimal duration for each pair at each iteration, since the prior rate n?i+1 on the duration varies with the iteration i. The total 2 3 computational cost is thus O(n ). We can avoid this by using the alternative view of the n-coalesent as a Markov process where each pair of lineages coalesces at rate  1. Greedy-Rate1: for each pair ?li and ?ri we determine the optimal ?i , replacing the n?i+1 prior rate with 1. We coalesce the 2 pair with most recent time (as in Greedy-MinDuration). This reduces the complexity to O(n2 ). We found that all three performed similarly, and use Greedy-Rate1 in our experiments as it is faster. 4.3 Examples Brownian diffusion. Consider the case of continuous data evolving via Brownian diffusion. The transition kernel kst (y, ?) is a Gaussian centred at y with variance (t ? s)?, where ? is a symmetric positive definite covariance matrix. Because the joint distribution (3) over x, y and z is Gaussian, we can express each message M?i (y) as a Gaussian with mean yb?i and covariance ?v?i . The local likelihood is: 2  b i |? 21 exp ? 1 ||b b i = ?(v? +v? +tli +tri ?2ti ) (11) Z? (x, ?i ) = |2? ? y? ?b y? || b ; ? 2 i li ri ?i li ri where kxk? = x> ??1 x is the Mahanalobis norm. The optimal duration ?i can also be solved for,  ?1 q n?i+1 2 2 ? D ? 1 (v +D ||b y ?b y || 4 ?i = 14 n?i+1 ? ? ri ? li 2 2 2 ?li +v?ri +tli +tri ?2ti?1 ) (12) where D is the dimensionality. The message at the newly coalesced point has parameters: ?1  y b?li y b?ri v?i = (v?li + tli ? ti )?1 + (v?ri + tri ? ti )?1 ; yb?i = v? +t + v? +t v?i (13) ri ?ti li ?ti li ri Multinomial vectors. Consider a Markov process acting on multinomial vectors with each entry taking one of K values and evolving independently. Entry d evolves at rate ?d and has equilibrium distribution vector qd . The transition rate matrix is Qd = ?d (qh>1 K ? Ik ) where 1 K is a vector of K ones and IK is identity matrix of size K, while the transition probability matrix for entry d in a time interval of length t is eQd t = e??d t IK + (1 ? e??d t )qd>1 K . Representing the message for entry d from ?i to its parent as a vector M?di = [M?d1 , ..., M?dK ]> , normalized so that qd ? M?di = 1, i i the local likelihood terms and messages are computed as,  PK Z?di (x, ?i ) = 1 ? e?h (2ti ?tli ?tri ) 1 ? k=1 qdk M?dk M?dk (14) ri li M?di = (1 ? e?d (ti ?tli ) (1 ? M?dli ))(1 ? e?d (ti ?tri ) (1 ? M?dri ))/Z?di (x, ?i ) (15) Unfortunately the optimal ?i cannot be solved analytically and we use Newton steps to compute it. 4.4 Hyperparameter estimation We perform hyperparameter estimation by iterating between estimating a tree, and estimating the hyperparameters. In the Brownian case, we place an inverse Wishart prior on ? and the MAP ? is available in a standard closed form. In the multinomial case, the updates are not posterior ? available analytically and are solved iteratively. Further information on hyperparameter estimation, as well predictive densities and more experiments are available in a longer technical report. 5 Experiments Synthetic Data Sets. In Figure 2 we compare the various SMC algorithms and Greedy-Rate1 on a range of synthetic data sets drawn from the Brownian diffusion coalescent process itself (? = ID ) to investigate the effects of various parameters on the efficacy of the algorithms1 . Generally SMCPostPost performed best, followed by SMC-PriorPost, SMC-PriorPrior and Greedy-Rate1. With increasing D the amount of data given to the algorithms increases and all algorithms do better, especially Greedy-Rate1. This is because the posterior becomes concentrated and the Greedy-Rate1 approximation corresponds well with the posterior. As n increases, the amount of data increases as well and all algorithms perform better. However, the posterior space also increases and SMCPriorPrior which simply samples from the prior over genealogies does not improve as much. We see this effect as well when S is small. As S increases all SMC algorithms improve. Finally, the algorithms were surprisingly robust when there is mismatch between the generated data sets? ? and the ? used by the model. We expected all models to perform worse with SMC-PostPost best able to maintain its performance (though this is possibly due to our experimental setup). MNIST and SPAMBASE. We compare the performance of Greedy-Rate1 to two other hierarchical clustering algorithms: average-linkage and Bayesian hierarchical clustering (BHC) [6]. In MNIST, 1 Each panel was generated from independent runs. Data set variance affected all algorithms, varying overall performance across panels. However, trends in each panel are still valid, as they are based on the same data. av e rage l og p re d i c ti v e (a) ?0.6 (b ) ?0.6 (c ) ?0.6 (d ) ?0.6 ?0.8 ?0.8 ?0.8 ?0.8 ?1 ?1 ?1 ?1 ?1.2 ?1.2 ?1.2 ?1.2 ?1.4 ?1.4 ?1.4 ?1.4 ?1.6 4 6 8 D : d i m e n si on s ?1.6 4 6 n : ob se rvati on s 8 ?1.6 0.5 1 ?: mu tati on rate 2 ?1.6 SMC?PostPost SMC?PriorPost SMC?PriorPrior Greedy?Rate1 10 30 50 S : p arti c l e s 70 Figure 2: Predictive performance of algorithms as we vary (a) the numbers of dimensions D, (b) observations n, (c) the mutation rate ? (? = ?ID ), and (d) number of samples S. In each panel other parameters are fixed to their middle values (we used S = 50) in other panels, and we report log predictive probabilities on one unobserved entry, averaged over 100 runs. Purity Subtree LOO-acc MNIST Avg-link BHC Coalescent .363?.004 .392?.006 .412?.006 .581?.005 .579?.005 .610?.005 .755?.005 .763?.005 .773?.005 SPAMBASE Avg-link BHC Coalescent .616?.007 .711?.010 .689?.008 .607?.011 .549?.015 .661?.012 .846?.010 .832?.010 .861?.008 Table 1: Comparative results. Numbers are averages and standard errors over 50 and 20 repeats. we use 20 exemplars from each of 10 digits from the MNIST data set, reduced via PCA to 20 dimensions, repeating the experiment 50 times. In SPAMBASE, we use 100 examples of 57 binary attributes from each of 2 classes, repeating 20 times. We present purity scores [6], subtree scores (#{interior nodes with all leaves of same class}/(n ? #classes)) and leave-one-out accuracies (all scores between 0 and 1, higher better). The results are in Table 1; except for purity on SPAMBASE, ours gives the best performance. Experiments not presented here show that all greedy algorithms perform about the same and that performance improves with hyperparameter updates. Phylolinguistics. We apply Greedy-Rate1 to a phylolinguistic problem: language evolution. Unlike previous research [12] which studies only phonological data, we use a full typological database of 139 binary features over 2150 languages: the World Atlas of Language Structures (WALS) [13]. The data is sparse: about 84% of the entries are unknown. We use the same version of the database as extracted by [14]. Based on the Indo-European subset of this data for which at most 30 features are unknown (48 languages total), we recover the coalescent tree shown in Figure 3(a). Each language is shown with its genus, allowing us to observe that it teases apart Germanic and Romance languages, but makes a few errors with respect to Iranian and Greek. Next we compare predictive abilities to other algoIndo-European Data rithms. We take a subset of WALS and tested on Avg-link BHC Coalescent 5% of withheld entries, restoring these with varPurity 0.510 0.491 0.813 ious techniques: Greedy-Rate1; nearest neighbors Subtree 0.414 0.414 0.690 LOO-acc 0.538 0.590 0.769 (use value from nearest observed neighbor); averageWhole World Data linkage (nearest neighbor in the tree); and probabilistic Avg-link BHC Coalescent PCA (latent dimensions in 5, 10, 20, 40, chosen optiPurity 0.162 0.160 0.269 mistically). We use five subsets of the WALS database, Subtree 0.227 0.099 0.177 obtained by sorting both the languages and features of LOO-acc 0.080 0.248 0.369 the database according to sparsity and using a varying percentage (10% ? 50%) of the densest portion. The Table 2: Comparative performance of varresults are in Figure 3(b). Our approach performed ious algorithms on phylolinguistics data. reasonably well. Finally, we compare the trees generated by Greedy-Rate1 with trees generated by either averagelinkage or BHC, using the same evaluation criteria as for MNIST and SPAMBASE, using language genus as classes. The results are in Table 5, where we can see that the coalescent significantly outperforms the other methods. [Celtic] Irish [Celtic] Gaelic (Scots) [Celtic] Welsh [Celtic] Cornish [Celtic] Breton [Iranian] Tajik [Iranian] Persian [Iranian] Kurdish (Central) [Romance] French [Germanic] German [Germanic] Dutch [Germanic] English [Germanic] Icelandic [Germanic] Swedish [Germanic] Norwegian [Germanic] Danish [Romance] Spanish [Greek] Greek (Modern) [Slavic] Bulgarian [Romance] Romanian [Romance] Portuguese [Romance] Italian [Romance] Catalan [Albanian] Albanian [Slavic] Polish [Slavic] Slovene [Slavic] Serbian?Croatian [Slavic] Ukrainian [Slavic] Russian [Baltic] Lithuanian [Baltic] Latvian [Slavic] Czech [Iranian] Pashto [Indic] Panjabi [Indic] Hindi [Indic] Kashmiri [Indic] Sinhala [Indic] Nepali [Iranian] Ossetic [Indic] Maithili [Indic] Marathi [Indic] Bengali [Armenian] Armenian (Western) [Armenian] Armenian (Eastern) 0.2 0.1 0 (a) Coalescent for a subset of Indo-European languages from WALS. 82 Coalescent Neighbor Agglomerative PPCA 80 78 76 74 72 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 (b) Data restoration on WALS. Y-axis is accuracy; X-axis is percentage of data set used in experiments. At 10%, there are N = 215 languages, H = 14 features and p = 94% observed data; at 20%, N = 430, H = 28 and p = 80%; at 30%: N = 645, H = 42 and p = 66%; at 40%: N = 860, H = 56 and p = 53%; at 50%: N = 1075, H = 70 and p = 43%. Results are averaged over five folds with a different 5% hidden each time. (We also tried a ?mode? prediction, but its performance is in the 60% range in all cases, and is not depicted.) Figure 3: Results of the phylolinguistics experiments. LLR (t) Top Words Top Authors (# papers) 32.7 (-2.71) bifurcation attractors hopfield network saddle Mjolsness (9) Saad (9) Ruppin (8) Coolen (7) 0.106 (-3.77) voltage model cells neurons neuron Koch (30) Sejnowski (22) Bower (11) Dayan (10) 83.8 (-2.02) chip circuit voltage vlsi transistor Koch (12) Alspector (6) Lazzaro (6) Murray (6) 140.0 (-2.43) spike ocular cells firing stimulus Sejnowski (22) Koch (18) Bower (11) Dayan (10) 2.48 (-3.66) data model learning algorithm training Jordan (17) Hinton (16) Williams (14) Tresp (13) 31.3 (-2.76) infomax image ica images kurtosis Hinton (12) Sejnowski (10) Amari (7) Zemel (7) 31.6 (-2.83) data training regression learning model Jordan (16) Tresp (13) Smola (11) Moody (10) 39.5 (-2.46) critic policy reinforcement agent controller Singh (15) Barto (10) Sutton (8) Sanger (7) 23.0 (-3.03) network training units hidden input Mozer (14) Lippmann (11) Giles (10) Bengio (9) Table 3: Nine clusters discovered in NIPS abstracts data. NIPS. We applied Greedy-Rate1 to all NIPS abstracts through NIPS12 (1740, total). The data was preprocessed so that only words occuring in at least 100 abstracts were retained. The word counts were then converted to binary. We performed one iteration of hyperparameter re-estimation. In the supplemental material, we depict the top levels of the coalescent tree. Here, we use the tree to generate a flat clustering. To do so, we use the log likelihood ratio at each branch in the coalescent to determine if a split should occur. If the log likelihood ratio is greater than zero, we break the branch; otherwise, we recurse down. On the NIPS abstracts, this leads to nine clusters, depicted in Table 3. Note that clusters two and three are quite similar?had we used a slighly higher log likelihood ratio, they would have been merged (the LLR for cluster 2 was only 0.105). Note that the clustering is able to tease apart Bayesian learning (cluster 5) and non-bayesian learning (cluster 7)?both of which have Mike Jordan as their top author! 6 Discussion We described a new model for Bayesian agglomerative clustering. We used Kingman?s coalescent as our prior over trees, and derived efficient and easily implementable greedy and SMC inference algorithms for the model. We showed empirically that our model gives better performance than other agglomerative clustering algorithms, and gives good results on applications to document modeling and phylolinguistics. Our model is most similar in spirit to the Dirichlet diffusion tree of [2]. Both use infinitely exchangeable priors over trees. While [2] uses a fragmentation process for trees, our prior uses the reverse?a coalescent process instead. This allows us to develop simpler inference algorithms than those in [2] (we have not compared our model against the Dirichlet diffusion tree due to the complexity of implementing it). It will be interesting to consider the possibility of developing similar agglomerative style algorithms for [2]. [3] also describes a hierarchical clustering model involving a prior over trees, but his prior is not infinitely exchangeable. [5] uses tree-consistent partitions to model relational data; it would be interesting to apply our approach to their setting. Another related work is the Bayesian hierarchical clustering of [6], which uses an agglomerative procedure returning a tree structured approximate posterior for a Dirichlet process mixture model. As opposed to our work [6] uses a flat mixture model and does not have a notion of distributions over trees. There are a number of unresolved issues with our work. Firstly, our algorithms take O(n3 ) computation time, except for Greedy-Rate1 which takes O(n2 ) time. Among the greedy algorithms we see that there are no discernible differences in quality of approximation thus we recommend GreedyRate1. It would be interesting to develop SMC algorithms with O(n2 ) runtime, and compare these against Greedy-Rate1 on real world problems. Secondly, there are unanswered statistical questions. For example, since our prior is infinitely exchangeable, by de Finetti?s theorem there is an underlying random distribution for which our observations are i.i.d. draws. What is this underlying random distribution, and how do samples from this distribution look like? We know the answer for at least a simple case: if the Markov process is a mutation process with mutation rate ?/2 and new states are drawn i.i.d. from a base distribution H, then the induced distribution is a Dirichlet process DP(?, H) [8]. Another issue is that of consistency?does the posterior over random distributions converge to the true distribution as the number of observations grows? Finally, it would be interesting to generalize our approach to varying mutation rates, and to non-binary trees by using generalizations to Kingman?s coalescent called ?-coalescents [15]. References [1] R. O. Duda and P. E. Hart. Pattern Classification And Scene Analysis. Wiley and Sons, New York, 1973. [2] R. M. Neal. Defining priors for distributions using Dirichlet diffusion trees. Technical Report 0104, Department of Statistics, University of Toronto, 2001. [3] C. K. I. Williams. A MCMC approach to hierarchical mixture modelling. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 12, 2000. [4] C. Kemp, T. L. Griffiths, S. Stromsten, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Semi-supervised learning with trees. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 16, 2004. [5] D. M. Roy, C. Kemp, V. Mansinghka, and J. B. Tenenbaum. Learning annotated hierarchies from relational data. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, volume 19, 2007. [6] K. A. Heller and Z. Ghahramani. Bayesian hierarchical clustering. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, volume 22, 2005. [7] N. Friedman. Pcluster: Probabilistic agglomerative clustering of gene expression profiles. Technical Report Technical Report 2003-80, Hebrew University, 2003. [8] J. F. C. Kingman. On the genealogy of large populations. Journal of Applied Probability, 19:27?43, 1982. Essays in Statistical Science. [9] J. F. C. Kingman. The coalescent. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 13:235?248, 1982. [10] P. Fearnhead. Sequential Monte Carlo Method in Filter Theory. PhD thesis, Merton College, University of Oxford, 1998. [11] R. M. Neal. Annealed importance sampling. Technical Report 9805, Department of Statistics, University of Toronto, 1998. [12] A. McMahon and R. McMahon. Language Classification by Numbers. Oxford University Press, 2005. [13] M. Haspelmath, M. Dryer, D. Gil, and B. Comrie, editors. The World Atlas of Language Structures. Oxford University Press, 2005. [14] H. Daum?e III and L. Campbell. A Bayesian model for discovering typological implications. In Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, 2007. [15] J. Pitman. Coalescents with multiple collisions. Annals of Probability, 27:1870?1902, 1999.
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Unsupervised Feature Selection for Accurate Recommendation of High-Dimensional Image Data Sabri Boutemedjet DI, Universite de Sherbrooke 2500 boulevard de l?Universit?e Sherbrooke, QC J1K 2R1, Canada [email protected] Djemel Ziou DI, Universite de Sherbrooke 2500 boulevard de l?Universit?e Sherbrooke, QC J1K 2R1, Canada [email protected] Nizar Bouguila CIISE, Concordia University 1515 Ste-Catherine Street West Montreal, QC H3G 1T7, Canada [email protected] Abstract Content-based image suggestion (CBIS) targets the recommendation of products based on user preferences on the visual content of images. In this paper, we motivate both feature selection and model order identification as two key issues for a successful CBIS. We propose a generative model in which the visual features and users are clustered into separate classes. We identify the number of both user and image classes with the simultaneous selection of relevant visual features using the message length approach. The goal is to ensure an accurate prediction of ratings for multidimensional non-Gaussian and continuous image descriptors. Experiments on a collected data have demonstrated the merits of our approach. 1 Introduction Products in today?s e-market are described using both visual and textual information. From consumer psychology, the visual information has been recognized as an important factor that influences the consumer?s decision making and has an important power of persuasion [4]. Furthermore, it is well recognized that the consumer choice is also influenced by the external environment or context such as the time and location [4]. For example, a consumer could express an information need during a travel that is different from the situation when she or he is working or even at home. ?Content-Based Image Suggestion? (CBIS) [4] motivates the modeling of user preferences with respect to visual information under the influence of the context. Therefore, CBIS aims at the suggestion of products whose relevance is inferred from the history of users in different contexts on images of the previously consumed products. The domains considered by CBIS are a set of users U = {1, 2, . . . , Nu }, a set of visual documents V = {v 1 , v2 , . . . , vNv }, and a set of possible contexts E = {1, 2, . . . , Ne }. Each vk is an arbitrary descriptor (visual, textual, or categorical) used to represent images or products. In this work, we consider an image as a D-dimensional vector v = (v1 , v2 , . . . , vD ). The visual features may be local such as interest points or global such as color, texture, or shape. The relevance is expressed explicitly on an ordered voting (or rating) scale defined as R = {r1 , r2 , . . . , rNr }. For example, the five star scale (i.e. N r = 5) used by Amazon allows consumers to give different degrees of appreciation. The history of each user u ? U, is defined as Du = {< u, e(j) , v (j) , r(j) > |e(j) ? E, v (j) ? V, r(j) ? R, j = 1, . . . , |Du |}. Figure 1: The VCC-FMM identifies like-mindedness from similar appreciations on similar images represented in 3-dimensional space. Notice the inter-relation between the number of image clusters and the considered feature subset. In literature, the modeling of user preferences has been addressed mainly within collaborative filtering (CF) and content-based filtering (CBF) communities. On the one hand, CBF approaches [12] build a separate model of ?liked? and ?disliked? discrete data (word features) from each D u taken individually. On the other hand, CF approaches predict the relevance of a given product for a given user based on the preferences provided by a set of ?like-minded? (similar tastes) users. The data set u u used by CF is the user-product matrix (? N u=1 D ) which is discrete since each product is represented by a categorical index. The Aspect model [7] and the flexible mixture model (FMM) [15] are examples of some model-based CF approaches. Recently, the authors in [4] have proposed a statistical model for CBIS which uses both visual and contextual information in modeling user preferences with respect to multidimensional non Gaussian and continuous data. Users with similar preferences are considered in [4] as those who appreciated with similar degrees similar images. Therefore, instead of considering products as categorical variables (CF), visual documents are represented by a richer visual information in the form of a vector of visual features (texture, shape, and interest points). The similarity between images and between user preferences is modeled in [4] through a single graphical model which clusters users and images separately into homogeneous groups in a similar way to the flexible mixture model (FMM) [15]. In addition, since image data are generally non-Gaussian [1], class-conditional distributions of visual features are assumed Dirichlet densities. By this way, the like-mindedness in user preferences is captured at the level of visual features. Statistical models for CBIS are useful tools in modeling for many reasons. First, once the model is learned from training data (union of user histories), it can be used to ?suggest? unknown (possibly unrated) images efficiently i.e. few effort is required at the prediction phase. Second, the model can be updated from new data (images or ratings) in an online fashion in order to handle the changes in either image clusters and/or user preferences. Third, model selection approaches can be employed to identify ?without supervision? both numbers of user preferences and image clusters (i.e. model order) from the statistical properties of the data. It should be stressed that the unsupervised selection of the model order was not addressed in CF/CBF literature. Indeed, the model order in many well- founded statistical models such as the Aspect model [7] or FMM [15] was set ?empirically? as a compromise between the model?s complexity and the accuracy of prediction, but not from the data. From an ?image collection modeling? point of view, the work in [4] has focused on modeling user preferences with respect to non-Gaussian image data. However, since CBIS employs generally highdimensional image descriptors, then the problem of modeling accurately image collections needs to be addressed in order to overcome the curse of dimensionality and provide accurate suggestions. Indeed, the presence of many irrelevant features degrades substantially the performance of the modeling and prediction [6] in addition to the increase of the computational complexity. To achieve a better modeling, we consider feature selection and extraction as another ?key issue? for CBIS. In literature [6], the process of feature selection in mixture models have not received as much attention as in supervised learning. The main reason is the absence of class labels that may guide the selection process [6]. In this paper, we address the issue of feature selection in CBIS through a new generative model which we call Visual Content Context-aware Flexible Mixture Model (VCC-FMM). Due to the problem of the inter-relation between feature subsets and the model order i.e. different feature subsets correspond to different natural groupings of images, we propose to learn the VCC-FMM from unlabeled data using the Minimum Message Length (MML) approach [16]. The next Section details the VCC-FMM model with an integrated feature selection. After that, we discuss the identification of the model order using the MML approach in Section 3. Experimental results are presented in Section 4. Finally, we conclude this paper by a summary of the work. 2 The Visual Content Context Flexible Mixture Model The data set D used to learn a CBIS system is the union of all user histories i.e. D = ? u?U Du . From this data set we model both like-mindedness shared by user groups as well as the visual and semantic similarity between images [4]. For that end, we introduce two latent variables z and c to label each observation < u, e, v, r > with information about user classes and image classes, respectively. In  order to make predictions on unseen images, we need to model the joint event p(v , r, u, e) = v , r, u, e, z, c). Then, the rating r for a given user u, context e and a visual document v can be z,c p( predicted on the basis of probabilities p(r|u, e, v) that can be derived by conditioning the generative model p(u, e, v, r). We notice that the full factorization of p(v , r, u, e, z, c) using the chain rule leads to quantities with a huge number of parameters which are difficult to interpret in terms of the data [4]. To overcome this problem, we make use of some conditional independence assumptions that constitute our statistical approximation of the joint event p(v , r, u, e). These assumptions are illustrated by the graphical representation of the model in figure 2. Let K and M be the number of user classes and images classes respectively, an initial model for CBIS can be derived as [4]: p(v , r, u, e) = K  M  p(z)p(c)p(u|z)p(e|z)p(v|c)p(r|z, c) (1) z=1 c=1 The quantities p(z) and p(c) denote the a priori weights of user and image classes. p(u|z) and p(e|z) denote the likelihood of a user and context to belong respectively to the user?s class z. p(r|z, c) is the probability to sample a rating for a given user class and image class. All these quantities are modeled from discrete data. On the other hand, image descriptors are high-dimensional, continuous and generally non Gaussian data [1]. Thus, the distribution of class-conditional densities p(v |c) should be modeled carefully in order to capture efficiently the added-value of the visual information. In this work, we assume that p(v |c) is a Generalized Dirichlet distribution (GDD) which is more appropriate than other distributions such as the Gaussian or Dirichlet distributions in modeling image collections [1]. This distribution has a more general covariance structure and provides multiple shapes. The  ?c is given by equation (2). The ? superscript is used to denote distribution of the c-th component ? the unknown true GDD distribution.  ?c ) = p(v |? D l ?   ? ?(??cl + ?cl ) ??cl ?1 (1 ? vk )?cl v l ? ?(??cl )?(?cl ) l=1 (2) k=1 D ? ? ? where l=l vl < 1 and 0 < vl < 1 for l = 1, . . . , D. ?cl = ?cl ???cl+1 ??cl+1 for l = 1, . . . , D?1 ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  and ?D = ?D ? 1. In equation (2) we have set ?c = (?c1 , ?c1 , . . . , ?cD , ?cD ). From the mathematical properties of the GDD, we can transform using a geometric transformation the data point Figure 2: Graphical representation of VCC-FMM. v into another data point x = (x 1 , . . . , xD ) with independent features without loss of information ? [1]. In addition, each x l of x generated by the c-th component, follows a Beta distribution p b (.|?cl )  D ? ? ? ? ?  with parameters ?cl = (?cl , ?cl ) which leads to the fact p(x| ?c ) = l=1 pb (xl |?cl ). The independence between xl makes the estimation of a GDD very efficient i.e. D estimations of univariate Beta distributions without loss of accuracy. However, even with independent features, the unsupervised identification of image clusters based on high-dimensional descriptors remains a hard problem due to the omnipresence of noisy, redundant and uninformative features [6] that degrade the accuracy of the modeling and prediction. We consider feature selection and extraction as a ?key? methodology in order to remove that kind of features in our modeling. Since x l are independent, then we can extract ?relevant? features in the representation space X . However, we need some definition of feature?s relevance. From figure 1, four well-separated image clusters can be identified from only two relevant features 1 and 2 which are multimodal and influenced by class labels. On the other hand, feature 3 is unimodal (i.e. irrelevant) and can be approximated by a single Beta distribution pb (.|?l ) common to all components. This definition of feature?s relevance has been motivated in  = (?1 , . . . , ?D ) be a set of missing binary variables denoting unsupervised learning [2][9]. Let ? the relevance of all features. ? l is set to 1 when the l-th feature is relevant and 0 otherwise. The ? ?true? Beta distribution ? cl can be approximated as [2][9]:  ?  1??l ? p(xl |?cl , ?l )  pb (xl |?cl ) l pb (xl |?l ) (3) By considering each ? l as Bernoulli variable with parameters p(? l = 1) = l1 and p(?l = 0) = l2 ? ( l1 + l2 = 1) then, the distribution p(x l |?cl ) can be obtained after marginalizing over ? l [9] as: ? p(xl |?cl )  l1 pb (xl |?cl ) + l2 pb (xl |?l ). The VCC-FMM model is given by equation (4). We notice that both models [3] [4] are special cases of VCC-FMM. p(x, r, u, e) = M K   z=1 c=1 D  p(z)p(u|z)p(e|z)p(c)p(r|z, c) [ l1 pb (xl |?cl ) + l2 pb (xl |?l )] (4) l=1 3 A Unified Objective for Model and Feature Selection using MML We denote by ??A the parameter vector of the multinomial distribution of any discrete variable A conditioned on its parent ? of VCC-FMM (see figure 2). We have A| ?=? ? M ulti(1; ??A) where A A ??a = p(A = a|? = ?) and a ??a = 1. Also, we employ the superscripts ? and ? to denote the parameters of the Beta distribution of relevant and irrelevant components, respectively i.e. ?cl =  ? R ?l (??cl , ?cl ) and ?l = (??l , ?l? ) . The set ? of all VCC-FMM parameters is defined by ?zU , ?zE , ?zc ,? , Z C  ? , ? and ?cl , ?l . The log-likelihood of a data set of N independent and identically distributed observations D = {< u (i) , e(i) , x(i) , r(i) > |i = 1, . . . , N, u(i) ? U, e(i) ? E, x(i) ? X , r(i) ? R} is given by: log p(D|?) = N  i=1 log M K   z=1 c=1 p(z)p(c)p(u(i) |z)p(e(i) |z)p(r (i) |z, c) D  l=1 (i) (i) [l1 pb (xl |?cl ) + l2 pb (xl |?l )] (5) The maximum likelihood (ML) approach which optimizes equation (5) w.r.t ? is not appropriate for learning VCC-FMM since both K and M are unknown. In addition, the likelihood increases monotonically with the number of components and favors lower dimensions [5]. To overcome these problems, we define a message length objective [16] for both the estimation of ? and identification of K and M using MML [9][2]. This objective incorporates in addition to the log-likelihood, a penalty term which encodes the data to penalize complex models as: s 1 1 (6) M M L(K, M ) = ? log p(?) + log |I(?)| + (1 + log ) ? log p(D|?) 2 2 12 In equation (6), |I(?)|, p(?), and s denote the Fisher information, prior distribution and the total number of parameters, respectively. The Fisher information of a parameter is the expectation of the second derivatives with respect to the parameter of the minus log-likelihood. It is common sense to assume an independence among the different groups of parameters which factorizes both |I(?)| and p(?) over the Fisher and prior distribution of different groups of parameters, respectively. We approximate the Fisher information of the VCC-FMM from the complete likelihood which assumes the knowledge about the values of hidden variables for each observation < u(i) , e(i) , x(i) , r(i) >? D. The Fisher information of ? cl and ?l can be computed by following a similar methodology of [1]. Also, we use the result found in [8] in computing the Fisher information of  ??A of a discrete variable A with N A different values in a data set of N observations. |I( ??A )| is  NA ?1 NA A given by |I( ??A )| = N p(? = ?) / a=1 ??a [8], where p(? = ?) is the marginal probability of the parent ?. The graphical representation of of VCC-FMM does not involve variable ancestors (parents of parents). Therefore, the marginal probabilities p(? = ?) are simply the paR rameters of the multinomial distribution of the parent variable. For example, |I( ?zc )| is computed  N ?1 C Z N ?1 Nr R R r r  / r=1 ?zcr . In case of complete ignorance, it is common to (?c ?z ) as: |I(?zc )| = N employ the Jeffrey?s prior for different groups of parameters. Replacing p(?) and I(?) in (6), and after discarding the first order terms, the MML objective is given by: D D K N M M L(K, M ) = 2p log N + M l=1 log l1 + l=1 log l2 + 12 NpZ z=1 log ?zZ  C + 21 (Nr ? 1) M (7) c=1 log ?c ? log p(D|?) with Np = 2D(M + 1) + K(Nu + Ne ? 2) + M K(Nr ? 1) and NpZ = Nr + Nu + Ne ? 3. For fixed values of K, M and D, the minimization of MML objective with respect to ? is equivalent to a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate with the following improper Dirichlet priors [9]: p(?C ) ? M  (?cC )? Nr ?1 2 , K  p(?Z ) ? c=1 (?zZ )? Z Np , 2 D  p( 1 , . . . , D ) ? z=1 l=1 ?1 ?M l1 l2 (8) 3.1 Estimation of parameters We optimize the MML of the data set using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to estimate the parameters. In the E-step, the joint posterior probabilities of the latent variables given ? the observations are computed as Q zci = p(z, c|u(i) , e(i) , x(i) , r(i) , ?):  (i) ? (i) ? U ?E ?R ??zZ ??cC ??zu (i) ?ze(i) ?zcr (i) l ( l1 p(xl |?cl ) + l2 p(xl |?l )) Qzci =  (9)  (i) (i) ( l p(x |??cl ) + l p(x |??l )) ??Z ??C ??U (i) ??E (i) ??R (i) z,c z c zu ze zcr l l 1 l 2 In the M-step, the parameters are updated using the following equations:   max ??zZ =  z max U = ??zu  i c Qzci ?   i i:u(i) =u c Qzci ?  N ??zZ Z Np 2 c Qzci , ,0 Z Np 2 max , ??cC = ,0 E = ??ze  max z,c,i 1 =1+  l1 max z,c,i  i:e(i) =e  c max  N ??zZ   c Qzci i   i R ??zcr = (i) Qzci l2 pb (xl |?l ) (i) (i) l1 pb (xl |?cl )+l2 pb (xl |?l ) Qzci l1 pb (Xil |?cl ) (i) (i) l1 pb (xl |?cl )+l2 pb (xl |?l ) z Qzci ? Nr ?1 ,0 2 z Qzci ?  (11)  (12)  ? M, 0 (10) Qzci Q zci i (i) i:r  =r ? 1, 0 Nr ?1 ,0 2 The parameters of Beta distributions ? cl and ?l are updated using the Fisher scoring method based on the first and second order derivatives of the MML objective [1]. 4 Experiments The benefits of using feature selection and the contextual information are evaluated by considering two variants: V-FMM and V-GD-FMM in addition the original VCC-FMM given by equation (4). E V-FMM does not handle the contextual information and assumes ? ze constant for all e ? E. On the other hand, feature selection is not considered for V-GD-FMM by setting l1 = 1 and pruning the uninformative components ? l for l = 1, . . . , D. 4.1 Data Set We have collected ratings from 27 subjects who participated in the experiment (i.e. N u = 27) during a period of three months. The participating subjects are graduate students in faculty of science. Subjects received periodically (twice a day) a list of three images on which they assign relevance degrees expressed on a five star rating scale (i.e. N r = 5). We define the context as a combination of two attributes: location L = {in ? campus, out ? campus} inferred from the Internet Protocol (IP) address of the subject, and time as T = (weekday, weekend) i.e N e = 4. A data set D of 13446 ratings is collected (N = 13446). We have used a collection of 4775 (i.e. N v = 4775) images collected from Washington University [10] and collections of free photographs which we categorized manually into 41 categories. For visual content characterization, we have employed both local and global descriptors. For local descriptors, we use the 128-dimensional Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) [11] to represent image patches. We employ vector quantization to SIFT descriptors and we build a histogram for each image (?bag of visual words?). The size of the visual vocabulary is 500. For global descriptors, we used the color correlogram for image texture representation, and the edge histogram descriptor. Therefore, a visual feature vector is represented in a 540-dimensional space (D = 540). We measure the accuracy of the prediction by the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) which is the average of the absolute deviation between the actual and predicted ratings. 4.2 First Experiment: Evaluating the influence of model order on the prediction accuracy This experiment tries to investigate the relationship between the assumed model order defined by K and M on the prediction accuracy of VCC-FMM. It should be noticed that the ground truth number of user classes K ? is not known for our data set D. We run this experiment on a ground truth (artificial) data with known K and M . D GT is sampled from the preferences P 1 and P2 of two most dissimilar subjects according to Pearson correlation coefficients [14]. We sample ratings for 100 simulated users from the preferences P 1 and P2 only on images of four image classes. For each user, we generate 80 ratings (? 20 ratings per context). Therefore, the ground truth model order is K ? = 2 and M ? = 4. The choice of M ? is purely motivated by convenience of presentation since similar performance was reported for higher values of M ? . We learn the VCC-FMM model using one half of D GT for different choices of training and validation data. The model order defined by M = 15 and K = 15 is used to initialize EM algorithm. Figure 3(a) shows that both K and M have been identified correctly on D GT since the lowest MML was reported for the model order defined by M = 4 and K = 2. The selection of the best model order is important since it influences the accuracy of the prediction (MAE) as illustrated by Figure 3(b). It should be noticed that the over-estimation of M (M > M ? ) leads to more errors than the over-estimation of K (K > K ? ). 4.3 Second Experiment: Comparison with state-of-the-art The aim of this experiment is to measure the contribution of the visual information and the user?s context in making accurate predictions comparatively with some existing CF approaches. We make comparisons with the Aspect model [7], Pearson Correlation (PCC)[14], Flexible Mixture Model (FMM) [15], and User Rating Profile (URP) [13]. For accurate estimators, we learn the URP model using Gibs sampling. We retained for the previous algorithms, the model order that ensured the lowest MAE. (a) MML (b) MAE Figure 3: MML and MAE curves for different model orders on D GT . Table 1: Averaged MAE over 10 runs of the different algorithms on D Avg MAE Deviation Improvement PCC(baseline) 1.327 0.040 0.00% Aspect 1.201 0.051 9.49% FMM 1.145 0.036 13.71% URP 1.116 0.042 15.90% V-FMM 0.890 0.034 32.94% V-GD-FMM 0.754 0.027 43.18% VCC-FMM 0.646 0.014 55.84% The first five columns of table 1 show the added value provided by the visual information comparatively with pure CF techniques. For example, the improvement in the rating?s prediction reported by V-FMM is 3.52% and 1.97% comparatively with FMM and URP, respectively. The algorithms (with context information) shown in the last two columns have also improved the accuracy of the prediction comparatively with the others (at least 15.28%). This explains the importance of the contextual information on user preferences. Feature selection is also important since VCC-FMM has reported a better accuracy (14.45%) than V-GD-FMM. Furthermore, it is reported in figure 4(a) that VCCFMM is less sensitive to data sparsity (number of ratings per user) than pure CF techniques. Finally, the evolution of the average MAE provided VCC-FMM for different proportions of unrated images remains under < 25% for up to 30% of unrated images as shown in Figure 4(b). We explain the stability of the accuracy of VCC-FMM for data sparsity and new images by the visual information since only cluster representatives need to be rated. (a) Data sparsity (b) new images Figure 4: MAE curves with error bars on the data set D. 5 Conclusions This paper has motivated theoretically and empirically the importance of both feature selection and model order identification from unlabeled data as important issues in content-based image suggestion. Experiments on collected data showed also the importance of the visual information and the user?s context in making accurate suggestions. Acknowledgements The completion of this research was made possible thanks to Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Bell Canada?s support through its Bell University Laboratories R&D program and a start-up grant from Concordia University. References [1] N. Bouguila and D. Ziou. High-Dimensional Unsupervised Selection and Estimation of a Finite Generalized Dirichlet Mixture Model Based on Minimum Message Length. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 29(10):1716?1731, 2007. [2] S. Boutemedjet, N. Bouguila, and D. Ziou. Unsupervised Feature and Model Selection for Generalized Dirichlet Mixture Models. In Proc. of International Conference on Image Analysis and Recognition (ICIAR), pages 330?341. LNCS 4633, 2007. [3] S. Boutemedjet and D. Ziou. Content-based Collaborative Filtering Model for Scalable Visual Document Recommendation. In Proc. of IJCAI-2007 Workshop on Multimodal Information Retrieval, pages 11?18, 2007. [4] S. Boutemedjet and D. Ziou. A Graphical Model for Context-Aware Visual Content Recommendation. IEEE Transactions on Multimedia, 10(1):52?62, 2008. [5] J. G. Dy and C. E. Brodley. Feature Selection for Unsupervised Learning. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5:845?889, 2004. [6] I. Guyon and A. Elisseeff. An Introduction to Variable and Feature Selection. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3:1157?1182, 2003. [7] T. Hofmann. Latent Semantic Models for Collaborative Filtering. ACM Transactions on Information Systems, 22(1):89?115, 2004. [8] P. Kontkanen, P. Myllymki, T. Silander, H. Tirri, and P. Grnwald. On Predictive Distributions and Bayesian Networks. Statistics and Computing, 10(1):39?54, 2000. [9] M. H. C. Law, M.A.T. Figueiredo, and A. K. Jain. Simultaneous Feature Selection and Clustering Using Mixture Models. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 26(9), 2004. [10] J. Li and J. Z. Wang. Automatic Linguistic Indexing of Pictures by a Statistical Modeling Approach. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 25(9):49?68, 2003. [11] D.G. Lowe. Distinctive Image Features From Scale-Invariant Keypoints. International Journal of Computer Vision, 60(2):91?110, 2004. [12] J. Muramastsu M. Pazzani and D. Billsus. Syskill and Webert:Identifying Interesting Web Sites. In In Proc. of the 13th National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 1996. [13] B. Marlin. Modeling User Rating Profiles For Collaborative Filtering. In Proc. of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 16 (NIPS), 2003. [14] P. Resnick, N. Iacovou, M. Suchak, P. Bergstrom, and J. Riedl. Grouplens: An Open Architecture for Collaborative Filtering of Netnews. In Proc. of ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 1994. [15] L. Si and R. Jin. Flexible Mixture Model for Collaborative Filtering. 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