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Indeed, both indicate increasing rates of change over time.
No secrets here We have known of the link between CO₂ and warming since the experiments of John Tyndall in the mid 19th century.
It’s certainly not a revelation from climate models.
Indeed, by the end of that century, Swedish Nobel Prize laureate Svante Arrhenius had already predicted that large CO₂ emissions would cause substantial global warming.
Modern climate models add considerable value to the well-tested empirical relationships.
They resolve the land, ocean and atmosphere and explicitly include the impact of all known drivers of climate change without simply assuming that all change is due to CO₂ (as Mr Newman’s statement would imply).
Critically, this means that we can use the unique fingerprints of each driver to disentangle and attribute the changes in historical temperature to these complex mix of drivers.
The planet has clearly warmed over the last 100 years, and climate models demonstrate that natural drivers like the sun are unable to explain this warming.
Conversely, the warming is consistent in both magnitude and spatial pattern with our emissions of greenhouse gases.
Verdict Mr Newman’s implication that discrepancies resulting from the recent climate fluctuation somehow invalidates climate models is incorrect.
Climate models have been thoroughly and critically tested against observations and are able to simulate with fair accuracy the component of climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols as well as natural factors like solar variations and volcanic eruptions.
However, long-term climate simulations do not and likely never will reproduce the timing of shorter-term random fluctuations, like the recent slowdown in surface temperatures.
In the long run, this fluctuation, like many before, will just be noise on a gradually increasing temperature signal.
That the discrepancy is a “well-kept secret” is demonstrably false given the large number of scientific papers discussing and trying to explain exactly this issue.
Review This is a sound analysis that effectively explains the appropriate way to assess the reliability of models.
Scientists can glean much scientific insight from comparing observations to model predictions, especially when there are discrepancies between the two.
In contrast, the critique of models employed by Maurice Newman does not increase scientific understanding.
– John Cook Have you ever seen a “fact” that doesn’t look quite right?
The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are.
We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article.
You can request a check at [email protected].
Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.
Two of the three investigations into the actions of Salt Lake City Police officers Detective Jeff Payne and Lt. James Tracy following Payne’s arrest of University of Utah Health nurse Alex Wubbels have finished.
The first — the police department’s internal affairs investigation — concluded that Tracy violated five departmental policies.
It found that he acted with conduct unbecoming of an officer.
Other rules broken include behaving with courtesy in public contacts, a policy favoring misdemeanor citations over arrests ”whenever possible,” the code of ethics and a standards of conduct policy.
It also found that Payne violated all five of those same policies, plus an additional policy which required him to report his use of physical force while arresting Wubbels — which he did not do.
Of Payne’s actions, the department wrote, “You demonstrated extremely poor professional judgment (especially for an officer with 27 years of experience), which calls into question your ability to effectively serve the public and the Department in a manner that inspires the requisite trust, respect, and confidence.” To both employees, letters said, “disciplinary action, which may include termination of your employment, is being considered in response to actions on your part which appear to be a violation of policy and/or expectations related to the performance of your job duties.” Payne’s lawyer, Greg Skordas, responded to the internal investigation’s results.
He complimented their accounting of the facts but took issue with some of the results.
He said he feels the report wouldn’t have been so harsh if the body camera footage hadn’t been publicly released and believes the report will be used to “justify major discipline … when it’s not warranted here.” “He made a terrible mistake … But let’s not overstate it because it’s become a YouTube sensation,” Skordas said.
The second investigation — an independent review by the Civilian Review Board — concluded with findings that Tracy did not meet the responsibilities of his position as a watch commander, that both officers should have contacted the department’s legal adviser and that both officers did not understand the laws in question.
It also found that Payne violated three department policies — public courtesy, blood draw procedures and his obligation to follow policy and orders.
The Civilian Review Board’s report also noted that no other police officer or security personnel present at the time of the incident intervened.
These officers were from both SLCPD and the University of Utah’s campus police department.
The security there was employed by the hospital.
Wubbels and her lawyer have named the inaction of those individuals as one of their primary concerns.
Their actions are also under ongoing criminal investigation by the Salt Lake County District Attorney’s office, in coordination with the Unified Police Department and the FBI.
Wubbels had called hospital security when Payne became agitated.
They came, but did not intervene in any way, telling her it was a “police matter” in which they couldn’t “get involved.” When she asked a U police officer to protect her from Payne, who was threatening her with arrest at the time, he told her that he would not prevent Payne from arresting her if she interfered with his work because her actions were obstruction of justice.
One U officer, Steven Worona, appears to assist in Payne’s arrest of Wubbels by placing his hand on her shoulder to hold her still.
After she was arrested, he approached Payne and Tracy, offering to help them get the blood they wanted.
In a video released online, U police Chief Dale Brophy said, “Having seen the video and firsthand what she went through, and what she tried to do to de-escalate and solve the problem, I think that somebody else — [university] security and/or police — could have stepped up and taken that role from her and been the advocate for her like they should’ve been.” Brophy said he’s met with the department and instituted more de-escalation training “to make sure it never happens again.” On July 26, Payne went to the U’s hospital in search of a patient’s blood on behalf of the Logan Police Department.
When Wubbels refused to give him a sample under policy agreed to by the hospital and SLCPD, Payne arrested her and pulled her out of the hospital while she screamed for help.
Tracy, Payne’s supervisor that day, arrived shortly after the arrest.
He had ordered her arrest.
Payne and Tracy have both worked as police officers for decades.
Payne has won multiple awards for his work, including a Purple Heart award from the Utah Peace Officer’s Association after being shot during a traffic stop.
Tracy has held several leadership positions in the force.
Both have been reprimanded in the past.
In 2013, then-Chief Chris Burbank gave a written reprimand to Payne over allegations that he had sexually harassed a female coworker over a long period of time, including unwanted physical contact.
He had also been suspended in 1995 after a police chase in which he violated several department policies.
Tracy’s only formal reprimand was in 1997 after he arrested two people, then released them on the other side of the city, never documenting what happened.
Payne and Tracy now have until Oct. 3 to respond to the results of the internal affairs investigation.
After that time period, SLCPD Chief Mike Brown will make a decision about the consequences the two officers will face.
[email protected] @EliseAbril
People travelling to the Czech Republic have been warned to avoid consuming locally produced spirits following a spate of deaths linked to methanol-laced alcohol.
To date, 19 people have died and 36 people have been admitted to hospital after drinking illegally-produced liquor that contains high levels of methanol.
The Food Safety Authority of Ireland (FSAI) today reminded people the Czech government has banned all products with alcohol content of 20 per cent or greater.
It said Czech authorities have confirmed that it is confined to the Czech Republic only.
The tainted alcohol was sold in bottles under fake labels from at least two Czech liquor makers and the bottles weren't properly sealed, according to police.
The poisonous drink was offered at discounts in bottles labelled as vodka or tuzemak, a local rum-like alcoholic beverage.
Several people went blind or fell into coma after consuming it.
Police have uncovered a chain of producers and distributors who supplied tainted drinks to retail outlets, bars and kiosks.
Police have charged 23 people with various crimes related to making and spreading poisonous substances after raiding 40 premises, deputy interior minister Jaroslav Hruska said today.
While the ban locked about 20 million bottles of spirits in warehouses and hurt liquor makers and hospitality businesses, the government is not considering easing it for now, health minister Leos Heger told reporters in Prague.
"Declining profits, in the context of 19 and potentially more deaths, are a lower priority at this moment," Mr Heger said.
Easing the ban "won't be a matter for consideration in the next few days."
As many as 35 people have been hospitalised, with five new cases of poisoning occurring in the past 24 hours, Mr Heger said.
Two people in Slovakia were hospitalised with cases of "lighter poisoning" after drinking plum brandy bought over the internet in the Czech Republic, Mr Heger said.
Slovakia today joined Poland in banning the sale of liquor imported from the Czech Republic.
Both countries border the Czech Republic.
DigitalGlobe is enlisting the crowd to scan and tag images of more than 1,200 square miles of ocean for any visible evidence that could help locate the Malaysia Airlines 777 aircraft that went missing this weekend.
The Longmont-based earth-imagery company deployed its FirstLook service on Sunday, directing two of its five satellites to snap photos of the area in the Gulf of Thailand, where investigators suspected the plane may have crashed, and then activated its crowdsourcing platform, Tomnod, on Monday afternoon.
Flight MH370, with 239 people on board, lost communication while on its way to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur.
The missing plane continued to perplex investigators from around the globe three days later.
“If there is something to see on the surface (of the water), we will see it.
But the question is if we are looking in the right area,” said Luke Barrington, DigitalGlobe’s senior manager of geospatial big data.
As each new theory led to a new dead end, the company recalibrated its action plan based on the Malaysian government’s new area of focus, north and east of oil slicks reported soon after the plane went missing.
DigitalGlobe activates FirstLook — used by emergency-response agencies in natural disasters, manmade crises and human interest scenarios — about twice a week, while Tomnod is used more selectively and for different reasons, Barrington said.
“We try to use the crowd wisely and not tire them out,” he said.
“The story here is much more about the search than it is about the response.
This whole feeling of not knowing, the lack of information or ability to do anything, we have seen time and again, is why people want to get involved.” Within the first hour Monday afternoon, the Tomnod map had 60,000 page views with more than a thousand tags.
Ten minutes later, that was up to nearly 2,000.
Barrington said that the crowd actually directed the company on this particular crisis, asking for them to deploy Tomnod.
“The people who come to Tomnod are very motivated to solve problems,” Barrington said.
“I would say we will have up to 10,000 contributors on this one.” DigitalGlobe is not the only earth-imagery company capable of delivering high-resolution images, but is arguably the U.S. industry leader.
“There are an awful lot of assets up in orbit,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst at The Teal Group.
“There’s dozens of earth observation satellites and all of them are very, very capable.
If they are taking images, then there’s no lack of imagery.
And if you haven’t been able to spot something by now, then I don’t know.
It has been three days.” Kristen Leigh Painter: 303-954-1638, [email protected] or twitter.com/kristenpainter
The head of the Colorado Department of Revenue has written a letter to the Drug Enforcement Administration asking that federal controls on marijuana be loosened slightly to account for its “potential medicinal value.” Colorado is the third state with a medical-marijuana program to ask the DEA to reschedule marijuana.
Revenue Department executive director Barbara Brohl’s letter, written Dec. 22, does not come as a surprise.
A law passed last year in the legislature required the state to ask for rescheduling by the end of this year.
In the letter, Brohl details briefly Colorado’s regulations for medical-marijuana sellers and argues that current federal law, under which all marijuana possession and distribution is illegal, make it difficult for her to administer Colorado’s laws.
“As long as there is divergence in state and federal law, there is a lack of certainty necessary to provide safe access for patients with serious medical conditions,” Brohl wrote.
The letter asks that the DEA consider moving marijuana from schedule I — a category that includes such drugs as heroin and LSD that are not considered to have medicinal value — to schedule II.
Drugs in that category, such as methadone and cocaine, are considered to have some medicinal value but also can be highly addictive.
Schedule II substances are able to be prescribed by doctors but are still subject to strict controls.
It is unclear whether Colorado’s medical-marijuana laws — which allow doctors to authorize marijuana use through recommendation and allow patients to grow their own cannabis plants — would clash with those controls.