如何为数字货币定价
比特币 数字货币
![](/data/attachment/album/201802/13/004800a4z6vmd529jbjmmy.jpg)


预测数字货币价格是一场愚人游戏，然而我想试试。单一数字货币价值的驱动因素目前太多，而且含糊不清，无法根据任何一点进行评估。或许新闻正报道说比特币呈上升趋势，但与此同时，有黑客攻击或是交易所 API 错误，就让比特币的价格下跌。以太坊看起来不够智能？谁知道呢，也许第二天就建立一个新的更智能的 DAO（LCTT 译注：区块链上，基于激励的经济协调机制，以代码作为表达，通过互联网进行传输，允许人们参与数字企业的风险&回报（即分配），代币创建了 DAO 参与者之间的经济链接）将吸引大量参与者。


那么，您该如何投资呢？又或是更准确的讲，您下注在哪种数字货币上呢？


理解什么时候买卖和持有数字货币，关键是使用与评估开源项目价值的相关工具。这已经一次又一次地被提及了，但是为了理解当前数字货币的快速发展，您必须回到 Linux 悄然兴起的时候。


互联网泡沫期间，Linux 出现在大众视野中。那时候，如果您想建立一个 Web 服务器，您必须将一台 Windows 服务器或者 Sun Sparc 工作站运送到一个服务器托管机房，在那里它将为传送 Pets.com（LCTT 译注：一个在线宠物商店，借着互联网繁荣的机会崛起，在互联网泡沫破裂时倒闭）的 HTML 页面而做出努力。与此同时，Linux 就像运行在微软和 Sun 公司平行路径上的货运列车一样，可以让开发人员使用日新月异的操作系统和工具集，快速、轻松地构建一次性项目。相比之下，解决方案提供商的花费比软硬件支出少得多，很快，所有科技巨头的业务由软件转向了服务提供，例如 Sun 公司。


Linux 的萌发促使整个开源市场蓬勃发展起来。但是有一个关键的问题，您无法从开源软件中赚钱。您可以提供服务，也可以销售使用开源组件的产品，但早期开源者主要是为了提升自我，而不是为了赚钱。


数字货币几乎完全遵循 Linux 的老路，但数字货币具有一定货币价值。因此，当您在为一个区块链项目工作时，您不是为了公共利益，也不是为了编写自由软件的乐趣，而是您写它的时候期望得到一大笔钱。因此，这掩盖了许多程序员的价值判断。那些给您带来了 Python、PHP、Django 和 Node.js 的人们回来了……而现在他们正在通过编程赚钱。


### 审查代码库


今年将是代币销售和数字货币领域大清算的一年。虽然许多公司已经能够摆脱糟糕的或不可用的代码库，但我怀疑开发人员是否能让未来的公司摆脱如此云山雾罩的东西。可以肯定地说，我们可以期待[像这样详细描述 Storj 代码库不足之处的文章成为规范](https://shitcoin.com/storj-not-a-dropbox-killer-1a9f27983d70)，这些评论会让许多所谓的“ICO” 们（LCTT 译注：代币首次发行融资）陷入困境。虽然规模巨大，但 ICO 的资金渠道是有限的，在某种程度上不完整的项目会被更严格的审查。


这是什么意思呢？这意味着要了解数字货币，您必须像对待创业公司那样对待它。您要看它是否有一个好团队？它是否是一个好产品？是否能运作？会有人想要使用它吗？现在评估整个数字货币的价值还为时过早，但如果我们假设代币将成为未来计算机互相支付的方式，这就让我们摆脱了许多疑问。毕竟，2000 年没有多少人知道 Apache 会在一个竞争激烈的市场上，几乎击败其他所有的 Web 服务器，或者像 Ubuntu 一样常见以至于可以随时可以搭建和拆毁它们。


理解数字货币价值的关键是忽视泡沫、炒作、恐惧、迷惑和怀疑心理，而是关注其真正的效用。您认为有一天您的手机会为另外一个手机付款，比如游戏内的额外费用吗？ 您是否认为信用卡系统会在互联网出现后消失？您是否期望有一天，在生活中花费一点点钱，让自己过得更加舒适？然后，通过一切手段，购买并持有您认为将来可能会使您的生活过得更舒适的东西。如果您认为通过 TCP/IP 互联网的方式并不能够改善您的生活（或是您对其没有足够的了解），那么您可能就不会关注这些。纳斯达克总是开放的，至少在银行的营业时间。


好的，下面是我的预测。


### 预测


以下是我在考虑加密货币的“投资”时应该考虑的事项评估。在我们开始之前，先讲下注意事项：


* 数字货币不是真正的货币投资，而是投资在未来的技术。这就好比：当您购买数字货币时，我们像是在<ruby> 进取号星舰 <rt>  Starship Enterprise </rt></ruby>的甲板上交换“<ruby> 星际信用 <rt>  Galactic Credit </rt></ruby>”（LCTT 译注:《星球大战》电影中的一种货币）一般。 这是数字货币的唯一不可避免的未来。虽然您可以强制将数字货币附加到各种经济模式中，对其抱有乐观的态度，整个平台是技术乌托邦，并假设各种令人兴奋和不可能的事情将在未来几年来到。如果您有多余的现金，您喜欢《星球大战》，那么您就可以投资这些“黄金”。如果您的兄弟告诉您相关信息，结果您用信用卡买了比特币，那么您可能会要度过一段啃馒头的时间。
* 不要相信任何人。没有担保，除了提供不是投资建议的免责声明，而且这绝不是对任何特定数字货币的背书，甚至是普遍概念，但我们必须明白，我在这里写的任何东西都可能是错误的。事实上，任何关于数字货币的文章都可能是错误的，任何试图卖给您吹得天花乱坠的代币的人，几乎肯定是骗子。总之，每个人都是错的，每个人都想要得到您的钱，所以要非常、非常小心。
* 您也可以持有。如果您是在 18000 美元的价位买的比特币，您最好还是继续持有下去。 现在您就好像正处于帕斯卡赌注。（LCTT 译注：论述——我不知道上帝是否存在，如果他不存在，作为无神论者没有任何好处，但是如果他存在，作为无神论者我将有很大的坏处。所以，宁愿相信上帝存在）是的，也许您因为数字货币让您赔钱而生气，但也许您只是因为您的愚蠢和自大，但现在您不妨保持信仰，因为没有什么是必然的，或者您可以承认您是有点过于热切。虽然现在您被惩罚，但要相信有比特币之神在注视着您。最终您需要深吸一口气，同意这一切都相当怪异，并坚持下去。


现在回过头来评估数字货币。


**比特币** —— 预计明年的涨幅将超过目前的低点。此外，[世界各地的证券交易委员会和其他联邦机构](http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-warning-from-sec-cftc-2018-1)也会开始以实际行动调整加密货币的买卖。现在银行开玩笑说，他们想要降低数字货币的风险。因此，比特币将成为数字黄金，成为投机者稳定，乏味但充满波动的避风港。尽管所有都不能用作真正的货币，但对于我们所需要的东西来说，这已经足够了，我们也可以期待量子计算的产品去改变最古老，最熟悉的加密货币的面貌。


**以太坊** —— 只要创造者 Vitalik Buterin 不再继续泼冷水，以太坊在价格上可以维持在上千美元。像一个懊悔的<ruby> 维克多·弗兰肯斯坦 <rt>  Victor Frankenstein </rt></ruby>（LCTT 译注：来自《维克多·弗兰肯斯坦》电影的一名角色），Buterin 倾向于做出惊人的事情，然后在网上诋毁他们，这种自我鞭策在充满泡沫和谎言的空间中实际上是非常有用的。以太坊是最接近我们有用的加密货币，但它本质上仍然是分布式应用。这是一个很有用，很聪明的方法，可以很容易地进行实验，但是，没有人用新的分布式数据存储或应用程序取代旧系统。总之，这是一个非常令人兴奋的技术，但是还没有人知道该用它做什么。


![](/data/attachment/album/201802/13/004803w1bfmgzggyng12np.png)


以太坊的价格将何去何从？它将徘徊在 1000 美元左右，今年可能高达 1500 美元，但这是一个原则性的科技项目，但却不是一个保值产品。


**竞争币**（LCTT 译注：除比特币，以太币之外的所有的数字币，亦称之为山寨币） —— 泡沫的标志之一是当普通人说“我买不起比特币，所以我买了莱特币”这样的话时。这正是我从许多人那里听到的，就好像说“我买不起汉堡，所以我买了一斤木屑，我想孩子们会吃的，对不对？”那您要自担风险。竞争币对于很多人来说是一个风险非常低游戏，就好比您根据一个算法创造出某个竞争币，在市值达到一定水平时卖出，那么您可以赚取一笔不错的利润。况且，大多数竞争币不会在一夜之间消失。 我诚实地推荐以太坊而不是竞争币，但是如果您死磕竞争币，那祝您玩得开心。


**代币** —— 这是数字货币变得有趣的地方。代币需要研究机构和高校对技术有深入的了解，才能真正的评估。我见过的许多代币都是一场赌博，价格暴涨暴跌。我不会给其命名，但是经验法则是，如果您在公开市场上买了一个代币，那么您可能已经错过了赚钱的机会。截至 2018 年 1 月，代币销售，庄家开始投资一个代币几美分，最后得到百倍的回报。虽然许多创始人谈论他们的产品的神奇之处和他们的团队的强大，但是就是为了单车变摩托，把价值 4 美分一个的代币升值为 20 美分，再升值成一美元。您将收益乘以数百万，就能看到它的吸引力了。


答案很简单：找到您喜欢的几个项目并潜藏在他们的社区中。评估团队是否有实力，并且很早就知道该如何进入。将钱投入后就当扔掉几个月或几年。但无法保证，因为代币理念太过超前，以至于无法对其评估。


您正在阅读这篇文章，是因为您希望在这错综复杂的环境下得到一个方向。没关系，我已经跟许多数字货币创始人交谈，知道现在许多人不知道的事情，并且知道合谋和肮脏交易的准则。因此，像我们这样的人，要慢慢地分批购买，就会开始明白这究竟是怎么一回事，也许会从数字货币投资中获利。当数字货币的潜力被完全发掘，我们会得到一个像 Linux 一样的时代。




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via: <https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/22/how-to-price-cryptocurrencies/>


作者：[John Biggs](https://techcrunch.com/author/john-biggs/) 译者：[wyxplus](https://github.com/wyxplus) 校对：[wxy](https://github.com/wxy)


本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出


OK
Predicting cryptocurrency prices is a fool’s game, yet this fool is about to try. The drivers of a single cryptocurrency’s value are currently too varied and vague to make assessments based on any one point. News is trending up on Bitcoin? Maybe there’s a hack or an API failure that is driving it down at the same time. Ethereum looking sluggish? Who knows: Maybe someone will build a new smarter DAO tomorrow that will draw in the big spenders.

So how do you invest? Or, more correctly, on which currency should you bet?

The key to understanding what to buy or sell and when to hold is to use the tools associated with assessing the value of open-source projects. This has been said again and again, but to understand the current crypto boom you have to go back to the quiet rise of Linux.

Linux appeared on most radars during the dot-com bubble. At that time, if you wanted to set up a web server, you had to physically ship a Windows server or Sun Sparc Station to a server farm where it would do the hard work of delivering Pets.com HTML. At the same time, Linux, like a freight train running on a parallel path to Microsoft and Sun, would consistently allow developers to build one-off projects very quickly and easily using an OS and toolset that were improving daily. In comparison, then, the massive hardware and software expenditures associated with the status quo solution providers were deeply inefficient, and very quickly all of the tech giants that made their money on software now made their money on services or, like Sun, folded.

From the acorn of Linux an open-source forest bloomed. But there was one clear problem: You couldn’t make money from open source. You could consult and you could sell products that used open-source components, but early builders built primarily for the betterment of humanity and not the betterment of their bank accounts.

Cryptocurrencies have followed the Linux model almost exactly, but cryptocurrencies have cash value. Therefore, when you’re working on a crypto project you’re not doing it for the common good or for the joy of writing free software. You’re writing it with the expectation of a big payout. This, therefore, clouds the value judgements of many programmers. The same folks that brought you Python, PHP, Django and Node.js are back… and now they’re programming money.

## Check the codebase

This year will be the year of great reckoning in the token sale and cryptocurrency space. While many companies have been able to get away with poor or unusable codebases, I doubt developers will let future companies get away with so much smoke and mirrors. It’s safe to say we can [expect posts like this one detailing Storj’s anemic codebase to become the norm](https://shitcoin.com/storj-not-a-dropbox-killer-1a9f27983d70) and, more importantly, that these commentaries will sink many so-called ICOs. Though massive, the money trough that is flowing from ICO to ICO is finite and at some point there will be greater scrutiny paid to incomplete work.

What does this mean? It means to understand cryptocurrency you have to treat it like a startup. Does it have a good team? Does it have a good product? Does the product work? Would someone want to use it? It’s far too early to assess the value of cryptocurrency as a whole, but if we assume that tokens or coins will become the way computers pay each other in the future, this lets us hand wave away a lot of doubt. After all, not many people knew in 2000 that Apache was going to beat nearly every other web server in a crowded market or that Ubuntu instances would be so common that you’d spin them up and destroy them in an instant.

The key to understanding cryptocurrency pricing is to ignore the froth, hype and FUD and instead focus on true utility. Do you think that some day your phone will pay another phone for, say, an in-game perk? Do you expect the credit card system to fold in the face of an Internet of Value? Do you expect that one day you’ll move through life splashing out small bits of value in order to make yourself more comfortable? Then by all means, buy and hold or speculate on things that you think will make your life better. If you don’t expect the Internet of Value to improve your life the way the TCP/IP internet did (or you do not understand enough to hold an opinion), then you’re probably not cut out for this. NASDAQ is always open, at least during banker’s hours.

Still will us? Good, here are my predictions.

## The rundown

Here is my assessment of what you should look at when considering an “investment” in cryptocurrencies. There are a number of caveats we must address before we begin:

- Crypto is not a monetary investment in a real currency, but an investment in a pie-in-the-sky technofuture. That’s right: When you buy crypto you’re basically assuming that we’ll all be on the deck of the Starship Enterprise exchanging them like Galactic Credits one day. This is the only inevitable future for crypto bulls. While you can force crypto into various economic models and hope for the best, the entire platform is techno-utopianist and assumes all sorts of exciting and unlikely things will come to pass in the next few years. If you have spare cash lying around and you like Star Wars, then you’re golden. If you bought bitcoin on a credit card because your cousin told you to, then you’re probably going to have a bad time.
- Don’t trust anyone. There is no guarantee and, in addition to offering the disclaimer that this is not investment advice and that this is in no way an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency or even the concept in general, we must understand that everything I write here could be wrong. In fact, everything ever written about crypto could be wrong, and anyone who is trying to sell you a token with exciting upside is almost certainly wrong. In short, everyone is wrong and everyone is out to get you, so be very, very careful.
- You might as well hold. If you bought when BTC was $18,000 you’d best just hold on. Right now you’re in Pascal’s Wager territory. Yes, maybe you’re angry at crypto for screwing you, but maybe you were just stupid and you got in too high and now you might as well keep believing because nothing is certain, or you can admit that you were a bit overeager and now you’re being punished for it but that there is some sort of bitcoin god out there watching over you. Ultimately you need to take a deep breath, agree that all of this is pretty freaking weird, and hold on.

Now on with the assessments.

**Bitcoin** – Expect a rise over the next year that will surpass the current low. Also expect [bumps as the SEC and other federal agencies](http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-warning-from-sec-cftc-2018-1) around the world begin regulating the buying and selling of cryptocurrencies in very real ways. Now that banks are in on the joke they’re going to want to reduce risk. Therefore, the bitcoin will become digital gold, a staid, boring and volatility proof safe haven for speculators. Although all but unusable as a real currency, it’s good enough for what we need it to do and we also can expect quantum computing hardware to change the face of the oldest and most familiar cryptocurrency.

**Ethereum** – Ethereum could sustain another few thousand dollars on its price as long as Vitalik Buterin, the creator, doesn’t throw too much cold water on it. Like a remorseful Victor Frankenstein, Buterin tends to make amazing things and then denigrate them online, a sort of self-flagellation that is actually quite useful in a space full of froth and outright lies. Ethereum is the closest we’ve come to a useful cryptocurrency, but it is still the Raspberry Pi of distributed computing — it’s a useful and clever hack that makes it easy to experiment but no one has quite replaced the old systems with new distributed data stores or applications. In short, it’s a really exciting technology, but nobody knows what to do with it.

Where will the price go? It will hover around $1,000 and possibly go as high as $1,500 this year, but this is a principled tech project and not a store of value.

**Altcoins** – One of the signs of a bubble is when average people make statements like “I couldn’t afford a Bitcoin so I bought a Litecoin.” This is exactly what I’ve heard multiple times from multiple people and it’s akin to saying “I couldn’t buy hamburger so I bought a pound of sawdust instead. I think the kids will eat it, right?” Play at your own risk. Altcoins are a very useful low-risk play for many, and if you create an algorithm — say to sell when the asset hits a certain level — then you could make a nice profit. Further, most altcoins will not disappear overnight. I would honestly recommend playing with Ethereum instead of altcoins, but if you’re dead set on it, then by all means, enjoy.

**Tokens** – This is where cryptocurrency gets interesting. Tokens require research, education and a deep understanding of technology to truly assess. Many of the tokens I’ve seen are true crapshoots and are used primarily as pump and dump vehicles. I won’t name names, but the rule of thumb is that if you’re buying a token on an open market then you’ve probably already missed out. The value of the token sale as of January 2018 is to allow crypto whales to turn a few cent per token investment into a 100X return. While many founders talk about the magic of their product and the power of their team, token sales are quite simply vehicles to turn 4 cents into 20 cents into a dollar. Multiply that by millions of tokens and you see the draw.

The answer is simple: find a few projects you like and lurk in their message boards. Assess if the team is competent and figure out how to get in very, very early. Also expect your money to disappear into a rat hole in a few months or years. There are no sure things, and tokens are far too bleeding-edge a technology to assess sanely.

You are reading this post because you are looking to maintain confirmation bias in a confusing space. That’s fine. I’ve spoken to enough crypto-heads to know that nobody knows anything right now and that collusion and dirty dealings are the rule of the day. Therefore, it’s up to folks like us to slowly buy surely begin to understand just what’s going on and, perhaps, profit from it. At the very least we’ll all get a new Linux of Value when we’re all done.

Image: Photo by [Fabian Blank](https://unsplash.com/photos/pElSkGRA2NU?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/search/photos/cash?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText)