分裂使 Linux 超越 Windows 的梦想破灭了
Linux 桌面
![](/data/attachment/album/202206/13/103642ugkq5az15ppkqg1o.jpg)


最近，The Register 的 Liam Proven 写了一篇关于 [最恼人的桌面 Linux 发行版](/article-14678-1.html) 的文章。他启发我写了这篇文章。


Proven 指出，Distrowatch 目前列出了多达 [270 个 Linux 发行版](https://distrowatch.com/)。当然，没有人能够都一一了解所有的这些发行版。但是，甚至在 GNOME 和 KDE 的界面大辩论之前，从 Bash 和 [Zsh](https://www.zsh.org/) 之争开始，我就一直在报道 Linux 桌面，并且曾经是一本现在已经停刊的名为《Linux 桌面》杂志的主编，我想我比任何其他用过 Windows PC 之外的计算机的人使用过更多的桌面。简而言之，[我超爱 Linux 桌面](https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/13/linux_column/)。


许多 Linux 桌面发行版都很棒。多年来，我一直是 [Linux Mint](https://linuxmint.com/) 的忠实粉丝。我也很喜欢其它桌面发行版：[Fedora](https://getfedora.org/)、[openSUSE](https://www.opensuse.org/)、[Ubuntu](https://ubuntu.com/) 和 [MX Linux](https://mxlinux.org/)，排名不分先后。但是你知道吗？**这就是问题。**


我们有很多优秀的 Linux 桌面发行版，但这意味着它们中没有一个能获得足够的市场份额，从而在 **整个市场** 上产生任何真正的影响。


自从人们开始谈论何时 Linux 能在桌面上击败 Windows 以来，情况一直如此。尽管我们可能梦想着一个真正的 Linux 桌面年到来，**但它从未到来**。正如 Forrester 高级分析师 Andrew Hewitt 最近指出的那样，“总的来说，[只有 1% 的员工](https://www.windowscentral.com/can-linux-win-desktop-pc) 报告说他们用于工作的主要笔记本电脑使用了 Linux。而 60%的人仍在使用 Windows……。Linux **不太可能超越** Windows 成为主要操作系统"。


**他没有说错。**


这并不是说 Linux 不能成为一个成功的终端用户环境。事实上，它是，你可以说 **Linux 是最成功的终端用户操作系统**，而不是 Windows。这是因为现在有 [超过 30 亿部安卓手机](https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/25/linux_kernel_30_years_old/)，而安卓只是一个专门针对智能手机的 Linux 发行版。


它并不是唯一隐藏在众目睽睽之下的 Linux。你会在每所学校、在我的旅行袋中发现 Chromebook，它无处不在。Chrome OS 只是 [在 Linux 基础上](https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-secret-origins-of-googles-chrome-os/) 将 Chrome 浏览器和界面进行了改造。


把这一切加起来，你可以直截了当地说，Linux 实际上早就是最受欢迎的终端用户操作系统了。


但这不是 Linux 桌面爱好者想要的。他们希望 Windows 在 Linux 重压之下被压垮，跪地求饶。


对不起。**这不可能发生**。Linus Torvalds 已经告诉我们为什么我们永远不会在每台 PC 上看到一个经典的 Linux 桌面：[碎片化](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHFdoFKDuQA)。


想一想吧。除了 200 多个发行版之外，还有 [21 种不同的桌面界面](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/17/linux_desktop_feature/)、六种以上的不同的主要软件安装方式，如 Debian 软件包管理系统（[DPKG](https://www.debian.org/doc/manuals/debian-reference/ch02.en.html)）、红帽软件包管理器（[RPM](https://access.redhat.com/documentation/en-us/red_hat_enterprise_linux/5/html/deployment_guide/ch-rpm)）、[Pacman](https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Pacman)、[Zypper](https://en.opensuse.org/Portal:Zypper)，以及其他的方式。然后还有所有较新的容器化安装程序的方法，包括 [Flatpak](https://flatpak.org/)、[Snap](https://snapcraft.io/) 和 [AppImage](https://appimage.org/)。


我几乎不能把它们全都搞清楚，而这甚至还是我工作的一部分！你怎么能 **指望普通用户来理解这一切** 呢？不可能。


像 [Canonical](https://canonical.com/)、[红帽](https://www.redhat.com/en) 和 [SUSE](https://www.suse.com/) 这样主要的 Linux 发行商，没有一个 **真正关心 Linux 桌面**。当然，他们有 Linux 桌面发行版。他们也是 Linux 桌面的主要影响者。但他们的收入来自服务器、容器、云和物联网（IoT）。桌面？拜托。我们应该 **庆幸** 他们在桌面上花费了那么多资源。


现在，说了这么多，我 **不想** 让你得到这样的印象：我不认为传统的 Linux 桌面很重要。**事实上，我认为它很关键**。


你看，微软正在放弃传统的基于 PC 的桌面。哦，Windows 并没有消失，但它正在转移。在其对未来的预测中，微软认为基于 Azure 的 [桌面即服务（DaaS）](https://www.computerworld.com/article/3656694/we-re-one-step-closer-to-windows-in-the-cloud.html) 是其未来。当然，Windows 用户仍然会在他们的桌子上看到一个看起来像 PC 的东西，但实际上它只是一个连接到 Windows 365 Cloud PC 的智能终端。真正的计算智能将在云中。


这意味着，真正的桌面操作系统的未来将掌握在拥有 macOS 的苹果公司和拥有 Linux 的我们手中。作为一个记得从中央控制的大型机和小型机向个人拥有的 PC 过渡的人，我不想回到一个所有权力属于微软或其他公司的世界。


Linux 桌面将永远不会像 Windows 曾经那样庞大。在 DaaS 的兴起和桌面向智能手机的沦陷之间，它不可能做到。但是，它可能会 **默认成为最受欢迎的、真正的传统桌面**。


那么 2028 年将是 Linux 桌面年吗？


你怎么看？




---


via: <https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/08/linux_desktop_blues/> 


作者：[Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols](https://www.theregister.com/Author/Steven-J-Vaughan-Nichols) 选题：[wxy](https://github.com/wxy) 译者：[wxy](https://github.com/wxy) 校对：[wxy](https://github.com/wxy)


本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](/article-14678-1.html) 荣誉推出


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This article is more than **1 year old**

# I love the Linux desktop, but that doesn't mean I don't see its problems all too well

## Fragmentation has put paid to the dream of this OS ever being bigger than Windows

Comment Recently, *The Register's* Liam Proven wrote tongue in cheek about the most annoying desktop Linux distros. He inspired me to do another take.

Proven [pointed out](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/the_cynics_guide_to_linux/) that Distrowatch currently lists [270](https://distrowatch.com/) – count 'em – Linux distros. Of course, no one can look at all of those. But, having covered the Linux desktop since the big interface debate was between Bash and [zsh](https://www.zsh.org/) rather than GNOME vs KDE, and being the editor-in-chief of a now-departed publication called Linux Desktop, I think I've used more of them than anyone else who also has a life beyond the PC. In short, [I love the Linux desktop](https://www.theregister.com/2022/04/13/linux_column/).

But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut


Many Linux desktop distros are great. I've been a big [Linux Mint](https://linuxmint.com/) fan for years now. I'm also fond, in no particular order, of [Fedora](https://getfedora.org/), [openSUSE](https://www.opensuse.org/), [Ubuntu](https://ubuntu.com/), and [MX Linux](https://mxlinux.org/). But you know what? That's a problem right there.

We have many excellent Linux desktop distros, which means none of them can gain enough market share to make any real dent in the overall market.

It's been like that since people first started talking about Linux stomping on Windows on the desktop. But dream as we might of a true year of the Linux desktop, it won't happen. As Forrester senior analyst Andrew Hewitt recently pointed out: "Overall, [just 1 percent of employees report usage of Linux](https://www.windowscentral.com/can-linux-win-desktop-pc) on their primary laptop used for work. That's compared to 60 percent that still use Windows... It is very unlikely that Linux will overtake Windows as the main operating system."

He's not wrong.

That's not to say that Linux can't be a successful end-user environment. It is. Indeed, you can argue that Linux, not Windows, is the most successful end-user operating system. That's because there are [over 3 billion Android phones out there](https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/25/linux_kernel_30_years_old/) and Android is just a smartphone-specialized Linux distro.

It's not the only Linux hiding in plain sight. Chromebooks, which you'll find in every school in the land, and in my travel bag, are everywhere. Chrome OS is simply Chrome reworked as a web browser and interface [on top of Linux](https://www.zdnet.com/article/the-secret-origins-of-googles-chrome-os/).

Add it all up and you can say with a straight face that Linux has actually long been the most popular end-user OS of all.

But that's not what Linux desktop fans want. They want Windows crushed and bleeding underneath the Linux juggernaut.

Sorry. That's not happening. Linus Torvalds already told us why we'll never see a classic Linux desktop on every PC: [fragmentation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHFdoFKDuQA).

[Sick of Windows but can't afford a Mac? Consult our cynic's guide to desktop Linux](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/31/the_cynics_guide_to_linux/)[Version 251 of systemd coming soon to a Linux distro near you](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/24/version_251_of_systemd_released/)[The sad state of Linux desktop diversity: 21 environments, just 2 designs](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/17/linux_desktop_feature/)[Unity and Trinity: New releases for forks of abandoned Linux desktops](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/04/unity_trinity_desktops/)

Think about it. Besides over 200 distros, there are [21 different desktop interfaces](https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/17/linux_desktop_feature/) and over half-a-dozen different major ways to install software such as the [Debian Package Management System](https://www.debian.org/doc/manuals/debian-reference/ch02.en.html) (DPKG), [Red Hat Package Manager](https://access.redhat.com/documentation/en-us/red_hat_enterprise_linux/5/html/deployment_guide/ch-rpm) (RPM), [Pacman](https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Pacman), [Zypper](https://en.opensuse.org/Portal:Zypper), and all too many others. Then there are all the newer containerized ways to install programs including [Flatpak](https://flatpak.org/), [Snap](https://snapcraft.io/), and [AppImage](https://appimage.org/).

I can barely keep them all straight and that's part of my job! How can you expect ordinary users to make sense of it all? You can't.

None of the major Linux distributors – [Canonical](https://canonical.com/), [Red Hat](https://www.redhat.com/en), and [SUSE](https://www.suse.com/) – really care about the Linux desktop. Sure, they have them. They're also major desktop influencers. But their cash comes from servers, containers, the cloud, and the Internet of Things (IoT). The desktop? Please. We should just be glad they spend as many resources as they do on them.

Now, all this said, I don't want you to get the impression that I don't think the conventional Linux desktop is important. I do. In fact, I think it's critical.

Microsoft, you see, is abandoning the traditional PC-based desktop. Oh, Windows isn't going away, but it is moving. In its crystal ball, [Microsoft sees Azure-based Desktop-as-a-Service (DaaS) as its future](https://www.computerworld.com/article/3656694/we-re-one-step-closer-to-windows-in-the-cloud.html). Sure, Windows users will still see what looks like a PC on their desk, but really it will just be a smart terminal hooked into a Windows 365 Cloud PC. The real computing smarts will be in the cloud.

That means that the future of a true desktop operating system will lie in the hands of Apple with macOS and us with Linux. As someone who remembers the transition from centrally controlled mainframes and minicomputers to individually empowered PCs, I do not want to return to a world where all power belongs to Microsoft or any other company.

The Linux desktop will never be as big as Windows once was. Between DaaS's rise and the fall of the desktop to smartphones, it can't be. But it may yet, by default, become the most popular true conventional desktop.

So will 2028 be the year of the Linux desktop? What do you think? ®

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