2024 年 Linux 和开源的六大趋势预测
Linux 开源
![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074157ikp0y0qmr20rr0ye.jpg)



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> 让我们尝试预测未来吧！
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新的一年快乐，朋友们 ✨


2024 年的钟声已经敲过，我们有必要去预见一下将塑造本年度的各种潮流。


我们不能预见未来，所以无法精确预知将会发生什么，但根据目前观察到的动向，我们可以进行一些预测。


以下是我们对 Linux 和开源发展方向的预测。


### 1、开源 AI 的兴起


![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074236m0bs1ynbjsjbne79.png)


2023 年初，Mozilla 成为了最早投身于开源 AI 的团队之一，研发类似于 ChatGPT 的解决方案。[Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/) 紧随其后，**崭露头角，发展成为备受赞誉的 AI 社区之一**，激发了全球范围内的协作。


我们也见证了 [AI 联盟](https://news.itsfoss.com/ai-alliance/) 的成立，这个联盟由超过 50 个创始成员组成，包括一些大名鼎鼎的公司如 Meta、英特尔、甲骨文和 CERN 等重量级大佬。他们的目标清晰明了：推进 AI 的开放式创新和科学发展。


更有一款名为 [GuardRail](https://news.itsfoss.com/guardrail/) 的开源项目，它**积极倡导负责任的 AI 开发**，提供了相应的框架来监控 AI 的行为。


所有的开源 AI 开发可能致力于与发行版或开源工具的更深度整合。当然，不像其他商业成就卓著的桌面操作系统，Linux 发行版可能不会大力市场化 AI 功能，但谁知道呢？


总的来讲，如果你问我们，对于开源 AI 来说，2024 年将是举足轻重的一年，我们都等不及看到更多的惊喜了！?


### 2、Linux 游戏市场扩张


![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074236gc0xzcf047jqo5oz.png)


过去的 Linux [游戏](https://itsfoss.com/linux-gaming-guide/) 市场的发展可谓好坏皆有。尽管平台上有一些原生游戏，和 Wine、Lutris、Bottles 等实用工具。但在 Valve 的 [Steam Deck](https://www.steamdeck.com/) 掌机发布之前，Linux 并未真正受到大部分游戏开发者的关注。


这款设备由基于 Arch 的 [SteamOS](https://itsfoss.com/steamos/) 提供驱动，为众多游戏在 Linux 上的运行铺平了道路，并将游戏开发商的目光吸引到这个平台上。


在 2023 年，我们已经看到了大量 [原生兼容](https://store.steampowered.com/linux) Linux 的游戏发布，我们预测 2024 年也将如此。


别忘了，像 [Bottles](https://news.itsfoss.com/bottles-next-linux-gaming/) 这样的开源游戏工具也将致力于提升用户体验。因此，那些从 Windows 切换过来的用户，将会发现这个平台更加符合其游戏需求。



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> ? 我们非常期待看到新的 [AAA 级大作](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AAA_(video_game_industry)) 在发布时就已经支持 Linux！
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### 3、更多的不可变 Linux 发行版


![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074237qcquw5a1am6uaq1m.png)


没错，预计 2024 年将有更多 [不可变 Linux 发行版](https://itsfoss.com/immutable-linux-distros/) 面世，Ubuntu 将走在前列。早在 2023 年初，他们就宣布了在即将发布的 Ubuntu 24.04 LTS 发行版中提供基于 [Snap 的不可变 Ubuntu 桌面](https://news.itsfoss.com/ubuntu-all-snap-desktop/) 的计划。



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> ? 这可能会让一些人不适，但毫无疑问，这样的变革正在路上。
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除了 Fedora 早已推出了配备 GNOME 桌面的不可变版本 Silverblue 之外，他们还增加了一款新品。在 [Fedora 39 的发布](https://news.itsfoss.com/fedora-39-release/) 中，一款带着 Budgie 桌面的名为 “[Fedora Onyx](https://fedoraproject.org/onyx/)” 的新版首次登场就吸引了眼球。


鉴于此，我们预计 2024 年将会出现更多新的不可变发行版，现有的不可变发行版如 blendOS 和 Vanilla OS 也将有所进步。


### 4、RISC-V 服务器的亮相


随着美国在 2023 年加大了他们与中国的 [AI 芯片竞争](https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-just-escalated-its-ai-chip-war-with-china/)，我们可能在 2024 年看到 RISC-V 服务器成为热点，因为各国纷纷在芯片制造领域努力实现更大的自主性。


中国已经开始部署他们自称为 “*首个商业版的云端 RISC-V 集群*”，那是在山东大学建立的一个由 [SOPHON SG2042](https://en.sophgo.com/product/introduce/sg2042.html) 驱动的集群。


### 5、Linux 发行版 UI/UX 将进一步提升


![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074237kr9obm0gbbj1gm2n.png)


如果以 2023 年为标志，我们大可以预言，2024 年将是 Linux 发行版在用户界面和用户体验方面不断创新的一年。


看看 [GNOME 45 的发布](https://news.itsfoss.com/gnome-45-release/) 所做的事情，它放弃了“*活动*”按钮，改为药丸形的工作区切换器，彻底改变了用户与工作区的交互方式。


再看看 Zorin OS 17，它通过实施一个“*空间桌面*”，在 Linux 发行版中重新定义了视觉体验，以便用户在与桌面交互时获得更好的环境感知。


而且，首次在 2024 年，我们将在 Linux 中看到蓝屏死机现象，多亏了 systemd，它**将在启动失败时提供有用的错误消息**。


像 Vanilla OS 2（Orchid）这样的新发行版发布，像 [KDE Plasma 6](https://community.kde.org/Plasma/Plasma_6) 这样的桌面升级，以及基于 Rust 的 **COSMIC** 等可能会带来更高的水平，我们倾向于这样期待！


别忘了，许多 Linux 发行版也在大力推广 **默认采用 Wayland 的未来**！


### 6、软件项目的源码可见


![](/data/attachment/album/202401/09/074238c57xqvfk14wf4qt8.png)


虽然某些软件项目并未完全遵循开源原则，但有些在限制商业分发的前提下，已经走上了公开源代码的道路。


这成为可能，多亏了 **CC BY-NC-SA 4.0（创作共享署名-非商业-相同方式共享 4.0）** 等许可证。


有人可能会争辩，企业应该全面拥抱其产品的开源。然而，我们坚信，这种做法将相比传统封闭源产品，**提升彼此之间的信任并推广透明度**。


### 2024是 Linux 桌面之年吗？?


我们知道，自 Linux 桌面在用户友好性和普及性上大踏步前进以来，我们一直在期待这个。


看着 Linux 的 [市场份额](https://itsfoss.com/linux-market-share/)，你可能觉得数据太低了。但我们还是不能放弃希望。


也许这正是你现在的反应。


尽管我们可能距离 Linux 桌面元年还有些距离，但我们比以往任何时候都要接近了。你看，Linux 桌面的接纳率在 2023 年稳定增长，而 2024 年可能就是见证其更大涨幅的一年。


? 你对 2024 年有何预测？欢迎在下方评论中分享你的观点！


*（题图：DA/d1246dc6-583c-4ff8-8c2d-b3808e9ec460）*




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via: <https://news.itsfoss.com/predictions-linux-open-source-2024/>


作者：[Sourav Rudra](https://news.itsfoss.com/author/sourav/) 选题：[lujun9972](https://github.com/lujun9972) 译者：[ChatGPT](https://linux.cn/lctt/ChatGPT) 校对：[wxy](https://github.com/wxy)


本文由 [LCTT](https://github.com/LCTT/TranslateProject) 原创编译，[Linux中国](https://linux.cn/) 荣誉推出


OK
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Happy New Year, folks ✨

Year 2024 is here, and it is time to look forward to the trends that will shape the year.

We are not fortune-tellers, so we cannot tell exactly what will happen. However, we could surely make some predictions based on what we've seen so far.

And here are our predictions on how things will move for Linux and Open Source.

## 1. Rise of Open-Source AI

![open source ai](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2024/01/open-source-ai.png)

Mozilla was among the first ones to kick 2023 off with [plans to work](https://news.itsfoss.com/mozilla-open-source-ai/) on open-source AI and to develop solutions like ChatGPT. That was followed by [Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) stepping up their game and **becoming one of the most popular AI communities out there**, facilitating collaboration on a global scale.

We also saw [the birth of The AI Alliance](https://news.itsfoss.com/ai-alliance/), formed with over 50 founding members that include some big names such as Meta, Intel, Oracle, CERN, etc. with a simple goal; to support open innovation and science in AI.

There was even an open-source project called [GuardRail](https://news.itsfoss.com/guardrail/) that** aims to promote Responsible AI development** by providing a framework for keeping AI in check.

All the open-source AI development might translate into integrations with distributions or open-source tools. Sure, unlike other commercially successful desktop operating systems, Linux distros may not “market” the AI-powered features, but you never know?

All in all, if you ask us, the year 2024 will be a crucial year for open-source AI, and we can't wait to see what's in store! 😃

## 2. More Games for Linux

![linux gaming](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2024/01/linux-gaming-2024.png)

[Gaming on Linux](https://itsfoss.com/linux-gaming-guide/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) has been something of a hit or miss in the past, even though we had some native games, and useful tools such as Wine, Lutris, Bottles, etc. Linux was not really the focus of many game developers, until Valve's [Steam Deck](https://www.steamdeck.com/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) handheld arrived.

Powered by the Arch-based [SteamOS](https://itsfoss.com/steamos/?ref=news.itsfoss.com), this device has paved the way for many games to run on Linux, while also turning the attention of game devs towards the platform.

In 2023, we already saw plenty of game releases that [work natively](https://store.steampowered.com/linux?ref=news.itsfoss.com) on Linux, and 2024 should be no different.

Not to forget, the open-source gaming tools like [Bottles](https://news.itsfoss.com/bottles-next-linux-gaming/) will also work on improving the user experience. So, a user who switched from Windows should find the platform more convenient for gaming.

[AAA titles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AAA_(video_game_industry)?ref=news.itsfoss.com)working on Linux at launch!

**Suggested Read **📖

[Linux Gaming’s Next Big Secret Weapon: Bottles Next-Gen Upgrade 🔥Exciting development plans for ‘Bottles’ as a better tool to run Windows apps and games on Linux.](https://news.itsfoss.com/bottles-next-linux-gaming/)![](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2023/10/bottles-next-upgrade-gaming.png)


![](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2023/10/bottles-next-upgrade-gaming.png)

## 3. More Immutable Linux Distros

![immutable distro benefits](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2024/01/immutable-benefits.png)

Yes, the range of [immutable Linux distros](https://itsfoss.com/immutable-linux-distros/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) is all set to expand in 2024 with Ubuntu taking the center stage by announcing earlier in 2023 that they will be offering [a Snap-based immutable Ubuntu Desktop](https://news.itsfoss.com/ubuntu-all-snap-desktop/) with the upcoming Ubuntu 24.04 LTS release.

While Fedora already had an immutable variant (Silverblue) with GNOME desktop, they have added one more to their offerings. With the [Fedora 39 release](https://news.itsfoss.com/fedora-39-release/) a new variant, “[Fedora Onyx](https://fedoraproject.org/onyx/?ref=news.itsfoss.com)” debuted with the Budgie desktop.

Seeing that, we also expect other new immutable offerings in 2024, with existing immutable distros such as blendOS and Vanilla OS becoming better.

## 4. Introduction of RISC-V Servers

With the United States [escalating their AI Chip war](https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-just-escalated-its-ai-chip-war-with-china/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) with China in 2023, we may see [RISC-V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RISC-V?ref=news.itsfoss.com) powered servers being one of the hot takes of 2024 as the country scrambles to become more independent in the field of chip manufacturing.

They have [already begun](https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/11/08/china-deploys-massive-risc-v-server-in-commercial-cloud/?ref=news.itsfoss.com) by deploying what they claim to be the “*first commercial implementation of RISC-V cluster in the cloud*”, which is a [SOPHON SG2042](https://en.sophgo.com/product/introduce/sg2042.html?ref=news.itsfoss.com) powered cluster set up at Shandong University.

## 5. Better UI/UX on Linux Distros

![better user experience distro](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2024/01/user-experience-distro.png)

If we were to take 2023 as an indicator, we can confidently say that 2024 will be a year when **we will see many innovations being made for the user interface and user experience side of things** on a Linux distro.

Take for instance what the [GNOME 45 release](https://news.itsfoss.com/gnome-45-release/) did, it ditched the “*Activities*” button for a pill-shaped workspace switcher that changed the way users interacted with workspaces.

Then there's Zorin OS 17, which [redefined the visual experience](https://news.itsfoss.com/zorin-os-17-beta/) in a Linux distro by implementing a “*Spatial Desktop*” so that users get better contextual awareness while interacting with the desktop.

And, as a first, in 2024, we will be seeing a [blue screen of death in Linux](https://news.itsfoss.com/bsod-linux/), thanks to systemd that **will serve up helpful error messages in the event of a boot failure**.

Exciting distribution releases like Vanilla OS 2 (Orchid), desktop upgrades like [ KDE Plasma 6](https://community.kde.org/Plasma/Plasma_6?ref=news.itsfoss.com), Rust-based

**COSMIC**by Pop!_OS might take this all up a notch, or so we hope!

Not to forget that there has been** a considerable push towards a Wayland by default future** for many Linux distros too!

## 6. Source-Available for Software Projects

![source available illustration](https://news.itsfoss.com/content/images/2024/01/source-available.png)

Even though some software projects do not entirely adhere to open-source principles, some have taken the route to make the source-code publicly available (with the restriction to distribute it commercially).

This is made possible by licenses like **CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0)**.

Some may argue that companies should embrace open-source definition for their products. However, we believe, this approach will **improve the trust and promote transparency **compared to any traditional closed-source product.

## Year of the Linux Desktop? 😛

We know that this is something that we have been hoping for ever since the Linux desktop started making big strides in terms of user-friendliness and being accessible to more users.

And looking at the [market share for Linux](https://itsfoss.com/linux-market-share/?ref=news.itsfoss.com), you may think that the numbers are too low. But, we can't lose hope just yet.

This is probably your reaction right now.

Even though we may be far from the year of the Linux desktop, we will still be closer to it than ever before. You see, there has been a steady increase in the adoption rates for Linux desktop in 2023, and 2024 might just be the year we see a more meaningful uptick.

*💬 What are your predictions for the year of 2024? Share yours in the comments below!*

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