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Study links 59,000 suicides to climate change in India
 Warming due to climate change has triggered over 59,000 farm-related suicides in the past three decades, a study has revealed that shows high temperatures and low rainfall during growing season substantially impact annual suicide rates. The study also finds the southern region of India tends to have the most severe increase in suicide for a given change in temperature.

“These are deaths that would not have occurred, had the warming we’ve observed in the historical climate record not taken place,” University of California, Berkeley, researcher and author of the study, Tamma Carleton, told The Indian Express in an email interview. “Suicide is a heartbreaking indicator of human hardship, and I felt that if this phenomenon were in fact affected by a changing climate, it would be essential to quantify its effect and consider this relationship as we build climate policy for the future.”

Although the Indian Government’s recently announced a $1.3 billion climate-based crop insurance scheme motivated as suicide prevention policy, the study states that “evidence to support such an intervention is lacking.” However, Carleton acknowledges that given the limited availability of data, the study cannot directly speak to particular policy solutions that are actively being debated in India.

The study ‘Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India’ published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on July 31 showed that “warming a single day by 1 degree Celsius during India’s agricultural growing season leads to roughly 65 suicides across the country, whenever that day’s temperature is above 20 degrees Celsius.” Further, warming a day by 5 degrees Celsius has five times that effect. The study relies on data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), “which contains the universe of reported suicides in the country from 1967 to 2013.” Carleton said that data used in the study from the NCRB does “not differentiate between farmers and other occupations” since the occupation of suicide victims was not listed until very recent years.

“There were not sufficient data with this occupational information to conduct my analysis. Therefore, I use all suicide records going back to 1967 to estimate the impacts of the climate,” she said. “If in fact farmers and agricultural workers are more affected by the climate than other occupations, my estimates would be a lower bound on the true effect that is applicable to these vulnerable populations.”

Carleton pointed out that the southern states of India “tend to be hotter on average, and also tends to have a higher average suicide rate in all years.” The study states that Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, three of which are in southern India, “not only have severe suicide responses to temperature, but also exhibit large negative impacts of temperature on yield.”

“I show in my analysis that in these locations, crop yields also tend to experience the largest damages for a given increase in temperature,” Carleton said. “These findings suggest that where crop yields are most vulnerable to temperature increases, suicides also respond more strongly to those same temperatures,” she said.

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While optimists often suggest that societies will adapt to warming, Carleton’s research has found no evidence to suggest communities acclimatize to high temperatures, or become more resilient as they get richer. “There are many possible impediments to adaptation that keep communities from being able to reduce the impacts of temperature as the climate warms,” Carleton told The Indian Express, adding existing evidence from other locations where researchers study a range of other types of climate impacts suggests a variety of reasons: high costs of adaptation, poor incentives to adapt, limited access to credit for financing adaptations, difficulty in planning for future risks, incorrect or limited information about the benefits of adaptation, weak government institutions, and poor access to technologies might play substantial roles.

“In the Indian context, many of these barriers to adaptation could be at play, and I hope that future research will help uncover effective means of enabling effective adaptive strategies,” she said. The study indicates that “heat drives crop loss” and predicts a “ripple effect throughout the Indian economy.”

Carleton said that rising incomes realized through economic growth are often thought to enable populations to reduce the negative effects of climate. “Households with more economic resources may be able to invest in heat-tolerant seeds, pay the up front costs of irrigation technologies, or take up crop insurance, while poorer households may be unable to adopt such adaptive strategies,” she said.

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“I tested the hypothesis that as India’s national income rose, the sensitivity of suicides to temperature fell. Likewise, increases in average crop yields could have weakened the link between temperature and suicide by providing agricultural households with more savings and hence more resilience in light of an adverse climate event,” Carleton told The Indian Express. “However, I found that these forms of adaptation were not taking place, as the effect of temperature on suicide is virtually identical in recent years as it was over 40 years ago.”

Output: A University of California study has linked 59,000 suicides to the effects of climate change in India over the course of three decades. The research found a correlation between difficult periods of high temperatures and low rainfall during crop growing season and increased rates of suicide, with rates being more severe in the southern region of India. A single day’s increase in temperature by one degree Celsius leads to approximately 65 suicides across India, according to the report. The Indian government has launched a $1.3bn climate-based crop insurance scheme to tackle suicide rates, but the study found that evidence to support the scheme was “lacking”.


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Climate change and ISIS seen as greatest global threats: Pew
 People around the globe identify ISIS and climate change as the leading threats to national security, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. The survey asked about eight possible threats. While the level and focus of concern varies by region and country, ISIS and climate change clearly emerge as the most frequently cited security risks across the 38 countries polled.

ISIS is named as the top threat in a total of 18 countries surveyed – mostly concentrated in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the United States. A substantial number of these countries have endured deadly terrorist attacks claimed by the Islamic militant group.

In 13 countries, mostly in Latin America and Africa, publics identify global climate change as the topmost threat. It is the second-ranked concern in many other countries polled.

Cyberattacks from other countries and the condition of the global economy are named as major threats by global medians of 51% each. Cyberattacks are the top concern in Japan and second-highest concern in places such as the U.S., Germany and the UK, where there have been a number of high-profile attacks of this type in recent months.

People in Greece and Venezuela view the health of the international economy as the leading threat to their countries, perhaps reflecting these nations’ economic struggles in recent years. Many countries surveyed in the Middle East and Latin America name economic turmoil as their second-greatest concern.

The influx of refugees, which was of particular concern in Europe in 2016, is seen as a major threat by a median of 39% across the 38 countries. It is the top threat in only one country, however: Hungary.

Globally, a median of about one-third view the power and influence of the U.S., Russia or China as a major threat. America’s influence is a top concern in Turkey. And in South Korea and Vietnam, eight-in-ten or more name China’s power and influence as a major threat. Meanwhile, among the countries surveyed, fears of Russia are most acute in Poland.

These are among the major findings of a Pew Research Center survey conducted among 41,953 respondents in 38 countries that was conducted from Feb. 16 to May 8, 2017.

In general, there has been little change in the global threat assessment since the last time these questions were asked. But worries about the U.S. and its power and influence have increased in many countries in Europe and around the world since the election of Donald Trump. (For more, see here, and for a broader assessment of Trump’s impact on the international image of the United States, see the June 26 report, “U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership.”)

Worries about the global economy align with concerns about national economies

Across the 38 countries surveyed, there is a strong positive association between overall negative perceptions of the national economy and general assessment of the global economy as a major threat. For example, in Greece, 98% say their nation’s economic situation is bad and 88% name the condition of the global economy as the top threat. By contrast, only 12% in the Netherlands say their national economy is bad, with a corresponding 21% who name the worldwide economy as a great concern.

Top threats by global region

The story of global threats in 2017 is partly regional in nature. Although ISIS and climate change are frequently cited as major threats, publics in particular countries and regions vary in the intensity and focus of their concerns.

ISIS is clearly the primary concern among the issues tested in Europe. Many Europeans also see climate change as a major threat to their countries.

In the Asia-Pacific, the Islamic State group and global warming rise to the top as major concerns, but a median of roughly half (52%) also worry about cyberattacks. A median of 47% across the region say China’s power and influence is a major threat.

Among people across the Middle East and North Africa, ISIS is the top threat in four of the five countries surveyed, including 97% who name it as a major threat in Lebanon. People in the Middle East are also concerned about the condition of the global economy and the power and influence of the U.S.

In sub-Saharan Africa, people are most concerned about climate change, but other threats such as the refugee crisis, ISIS, cyberattacks and the global economy are concerns of around half or more across the six nations surveyed.

Regionally, Latin Americans show the greatest concern about climate change. It is the top threat in six of the seven nations surveyed. But they also worry about the global economy. In all Latin American nations surveyed – including Venezuela and Brazil, two nations that have seen economic hardships recently – at least half say that the condition of the global economy is a serious threat to their country. (For more on economic and political problems in Brazil, see “How Brazilians view their country’s economic and political crises.”)

In Europe and U.S., ISIS is seen as a major threat

Across 10 European nations, the U.S., Canada and Russia, majorities in most countries name ISIS as a serious threat to their countries. This includes a median of 74% across the European countries who say that ISIS is a major threat to their nation. The same number in the U.S. (74%) name ISIS as a top threat to their country. Relative to the other threats tested, people are especially worried about the Islamic State group in France (88%), Italy (85%) and Russia (58%).

While ISIS is the top threat in most of these countries, global climate change is also a pressing concern, especially in Spain (89%), Sweden (64%) and Canada (60%), where this issue tops the list. Across the 10 EU countries, a median of 64% say global climate change is a major threat. A slim majority in the U.S. (56%) see global climate change as a major threat.

While half or more in seven of these 13 countries see cyberattacks from other countries as a major threat, in no country is it named as the top threat. Still, in the U.S. and Germany – both countries that have been targets of major attacks over the past year – 71% and 66% respectively see cyberattacks as a major threat. And across the 10 European countries, 54% say cyberattacks are a major concern. But only around a third in Russia agree (34%).

The large number of refugees coming from places like Iraq and Syria is named as the top threat in only one European country, Hungary, where 66% say the movement of refugees is a major threat. Worries about the refugee threat have somewhat abated in Europe over the past year. In spring 2016, a median of 49% said refugees were a major threat, compared with 41% who say this in 2017.

Fewer people in Europe see the condition of the global economy as a major threat. But in Greece, which has been mired in economic crisis for close to a decade, 88% name the global economy as a major threat, making it the topmost choice in that country. And 72% in Spain share the same level of concern about the economy.

While Russia’s power and influence are not named as the greatest threat in any of the countries polled in Europe or North America, there is particular concern in Poland (65%). And 47% in the U.S. see Russia as a major threat, but there is a partisan divide: 61% of Democrats say Russia’s power and influence is a major threat, compared with only 36% of Republicans. Across all of Europe, a median of 41% perceive Russia as a major threat.

U.S. power and influence is seen as a major threat by a median of 31% across Europe. Spain, however, is an outlier, with 59% worried about the U.S. In six European countries surveyed and Canada, worries about American power and influence are up since 2016. (For more on this trend, see here.)

China’s power and influence are seen as a major threat by a modest median of three-in-ten across Europe.

Demographic divides in Europe, U.S., Canada and Russia on top threats

Within the countries of Europe and North America, concern over many of the listed threats differs substantially between demographic groups. One of the starker divides is that of political ideology.

The most significant differences by ideology are on the refugee threat. In all of the countries surveyed in Europe and North America, those on the political right are more concerned about the large number of refugees coming from the Middle East than those on the left. For example, in Germany, 51% on the right say that the movement of refugees is a major threat, versus only 14% who say this on the political left. A similar divide exists in the U.S. between self-described conservatives (60% say refugees are a major threat) and liberals (14%).

In Europe, there is also a pattern of more concern about the refugee threat from those who favor right-wing populist parties. In France, for instance, supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Front (FN) are roughly twice as likely to be concerned about the refugee threat (65%) as are those who do not support FN (32%). Similar divides exists between supporters and detractors of Alternative for Germany (AfD); the United Kingdom Independence Party; the Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Netherlands; and the Sweden Democrats.

A similar right-left divide also exists for those who see ISIS as a major threat. In Canada, 59% on the right say that ISIS is a major threat, compared with only 33% of those on the left. Significant political divides on the ISIS threat also exist in the U.S. (a 22-percentage-point difference) and seven other EU countries.

On the threat of global climate change, there is a reverse pattern, with those on the political left in some countries more concerned about it than those on the right. This is most stark in the U.S., where 86% of liberals say climate change is a major concern, versus only 31% of conservatives. But this left-right divide also exists in Canada, the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden and Germany, though not to the same extent as in America.

In views of ISIS as a threat, there is also a divide by age. In seven countries in Europe, North America and Russia, people ages 50 and older are much more concerned about the threat from the extremist group than are the young. For example, in the Netherlands, 78% of people 50 or older say that ISIS is a major threat to their country, while only 46% among Dutch youth say the same.

And on the refugee threat, there is a significant educational divide in all of the countries surveyed in Europe and North America. People with a secondary education or less tend to be more worried about an influx of Middle Eastern refugees, compared with people who have more education. The divides are particularly large in the UK (+21 percentage points) and France (+20), where educational splits played a large role in recent national elections and referenda.

In Asia-Pacific, views of top threats vary

Across seven Asia-Pacific nations surveyed, a median of 62% see ISIS as a major threat and 61% see global climate change in the same light. About half across the region see cyberattacks and Chinese power as a major challenge. Fewer are very concerned about the global economy, refugees or American and Russian power.

However, threat assessments vary considerably across the region. ISIS is seen as the top threat in Indonesia, the Philippines and India. Though ISIS also tops the list in Australia, there are similar concerns about climate change as a major threat. Japanese are most concerned by cyberattacks from other countries. South Korea and Vietnam, for their part, rate China’s power and influence as the top threat facing their nations.

Concern about refugees from countries like Iraq and Syria, as well as Russia’s power and influence, is quite low across the Asia-Pacific region. Worries about U.S. power and influence, meanwhile, vary substantially. Majorities across South Korea, Japan and Indonesia see American power as a major threat. In Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam and India, roughly a third or less see the U.S. in a similar light.

In Australia, there are significant ideological differences in views of global threats. These divides are widest on global climate change and ISIS – compared with people on the right, those on the left are 52 percentage points more likely to see climate change as a major threat to Australia, but 42 points less likely to say the same about ISIS. Australians on the left are also more likely to see American power and influence as a major threat, but worry less about refugees and cyberattacks.

In Middle East and North Africa, overwhelming concern about ISIS

Across the Middle East and North Africa, ISIS is seen as the leading threat in all four countries in which the item was tested. This sentiment is nearly universal in Lebanon, with 97% saying ISIS poses a major threat to their country. Large majorities in Tunisia (79%), Jordan (76%) and Israel (63%) agree.

While the condition of the global economy does not rise to the top of the list in any one country, a median of 59% across the region feel it poses a major challenge and it is the second highest international concern in Lebanon, Tunisia and Jordan. A median of 50% in the region are very threatened by U.S. power, 48% by refugees and 44% by climate change. Fewer see cyberattacks (median of 40%), Russian power (35%) or Chinese power (20%) as major threats.

A year after a failed coup attempt blamed at least in part on the U.S., 72% in Turkey say American power and influence is a major threat to their country. This figure is up 28 percentage points since 2013, when just 44% named U.S. power and influence as a major threat. People in Turkey are also worried about the refugee issue (64% major threat), which has spilled over their borders in recent years.

Israel stands out among the Middle Eastern countries surveyed for its lower levels of concern about each international threat tested. While 63% of Israelis see ISIS as a major threat, about four-in-ten or fewer name any other issue as a major challenge. Within Israel, Jews are more concerned than Arabs about refugees from places like Iraq and Syria (44% vs. 22%), ISIS (66% vs. 53%) and Russian power and influence (29% vs 19%).

In Lebanon, views of U.S., Russian and Chinese influence break along religious lines. A large majority of Shiites (67%) feel threatened by U.S. power and influence. Fewer Lebanese Sunnis (44%) and Christians (35%) feel the same way. These views align with overall views of the U.S. – only 7% of Shiites have a favorable opinion of the U.S., compared with 36% of Sunnis and 59% of Christians. When it comes to Russian power, concerns flip: Sunnis (56%) are more likely to see Russia’s power and influence as a major threat than are Christians (32%) and Shiites (13%).

In Latin America and Africa, climate change is top threat

Pew Research Center surveys have shown consistently high concern about climate change in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. Today, climate change is seen as the top international threat in six of seven Latin American countries surveyed and four of six sub-Saharan African countries.

In Latin America, a median of 74% name global climate change as a major threat to their country. Chileans are particularly concerned about climate change, with 86% saying it poses a major threat to their nation, followed by Peruvians (79%) and Argentines (76%). A median of 61% name the condition of the global economy as a major concern and 54% name cyberattacks. Rounding out the top five threats are U.S. power and influence (median of 47%) and ISIS (40%). Few see refugees (median of 31%), Chinese power (25%) or Russian power (23%) as a large threat.

Venezuela is the only Latin American country surveyed in which economic worries match the level of concern over climate change. A majority of Venezuelans (56%) name the condition of the global economy as a major threat, virtually tied with the 55% who say the same about climate change. In five of the six remaining Latin American nations surveyed, the condition of the world economy ranks as the second-greatest threat.

Concern about U.S. power is relatively low in Latin America, but this is not the case in Mexico. Roughly six-in-ten Mexicans say U.S. power and influence is a major threat to their country, which comes amid steep drops in U.S. favorability and confidence in the U.S. president in Mexico.

In sub-Saharan Africa, a median of 58% believe global climate change is a major threat to their country. Climate change is the top international threat in Kenya (76%), Tanzania (64%), South Africa (59%) and Senegal (56%).

Closely trailing climate change is concern about refugees from places like Iraq and Syria (median of 55%), ISIS (54%), cyberattacks (53%) and the condition of the global economy (51%). Ghana and Nigeria are the only two nations in sub-Saharan Africa whose preeminent worry is not climate change – they instead see ISIS as their top threat. And on the economy, more than half in Kenya (70%), Tanzania (61%) and Nigeria (53%) are concerned.

There is little concern throughout sub-Saharan Africa about the power and influence of the U.S., Russia or China. In no country does even half the population name these issues as a major threat.

Output: Climate change and ISIS are seen as the two greatest threats to global security by people throughout the world, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. The international economy and Cyberattacks came next on the list. People in a third of the 38 countries surveyed cited the power of China, Russia or the US as a significant worry. The survey reflected a minimal shift in global threat perception since the previous research in 2016. However, researchers did identify an increase in global concern about the influence of the US since the election of President Trump.


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Climate change and ISIS seen as greatest global threats: Pew
 Story highlights Many countries pointed to the power and influence of the US, Russia or China as a threat There's been a worldwide spike in concern about the US and its power and influence since the election of Donald Trump

Washington CNN —

People across the world see the terror group ISIS and climate change as the two biggest threats to global security, according to an international survey by the non-partisan Pew Research Center.

Cyberattacks and the health of the international economy follow closely, while people in one third of the 38 countries surveyed said that the power and influence of the US, Russia or China is a major concern.

While Pew researchers found little change in the global threat perception since their last survey, they did see a worldwide spike in concern about the US and its power and influence since the election of President Donald Trump.

Across Europe, 31% said US power and influence is a major threat in 2017. In Spain, the number was 59%. Compared to 2016, concern about the US had risen in six European countries and Canada.

In Turkey, people told researchers that the single greatest threat to their national security is the US. They weren’t asked about the threat of ISIS.

Cyberattacks

Among Americans, ISIS is the greatest concern, followed by cyberattacks, climate and Russia’s power and influence. Russians listed ISIS first as well, followed by the global economy, US power and influence, and the large number of refugees leaving Middle Eastern countries such as Syria and Iraq.

ISIS also ranked first for most Middle East nations, as well as countries that are struggling to deal with self-proclaimed affiliates of the group and European countries that have seen attacks by the group on their home soil.

Across the board, the second most troubling threat was global climate change, with people in 13 countries flagging it as their greatest concern.

Cyberattacks also ranked high. After US intelligence agencies pointed to Russian interference during the bruising election season, Americans cited cyberhacks as their second highest concern.

Russia as a threat

The survey also found that 47% of Americans see Russia as a major threat, but there is a partisan divide in responses. While 61% of Democrats see Russia’s power and influence as a major threat, only 36% of Republicans feel that way.

In Germany and the UK, where there have also been high-profile cyberattacks in recent months, cybercrime also ranked second. In Japan, it was the top concern.

In countries where the economy is in bad shape, people were more likely to identify the global economy as a major threat, the survey found. In Greece, 98% of people said their national economy was in bad shape, and 88% pointed to the state of global economy as the country’s top threat.

The report also found that people’s concerns varied according to the region where they lived.

Regional differences

In the Asia Pacific, people’s top concerns are about ISIS and global warming. But 52% worry about cyberattacks and 47% named China’s power and influence as a major threat. They were not asked about North Korea.

In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change, ISIS and the global refugee crisis were top concerns. In the Middle East, people were focused on ISIS, unsurprisingly, but also about the state of the global economy and the reach and influence of the US.

Latin Americans were most concerned about climate change – six out of seven countries named it as the top threat – but the global economy also ranked high.

And in Europe, the US, Canada and Russia, ISIS topped the list, but climate change is a pressing concern. It ranked first as a national threat in Canada, Sweden and Spain. In the EU countries, 64% said it was a major threat. In the US, 56% said global climate change was a major threat.

Researchers spoke to 41,953 respondents in those 38 countries between February 16 and May 8, 2017.

Output: Climate change and ISIS are seen as the two greatest threats to global security by people throughout the world, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. The international economy and Cyberattacks came next on the list. People in a third of the 38 countries surveyed cited the power of China, Russia or the US as a significant worry. The survey reflected a minimal shift in global threat perception since the previous research in 2016. However, researchers did identify an increase in global concern about the influence of the US since the election of President Trump.


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HKEX to use blockchain for pre-IPO companies of the 'new economy'
 The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is planning to launch a new private market to provide early stage companies with a blockchain-based share registration and transfer platform for the conduct of pre-IPO financing off-exchange and clear of the regulatory remit of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.

Set for launch in 2018, the HKEX Private Market will serve as a “nursery” for early stage companies before they are ready to enter public markets.

In an open letter soliciting feedback on the proposals, HKEX chief Charles Li says the new venture will aim to create a supportive ecosystem in Hong Kong for early-stage startups and their investors.

It's part of a package of measures launched by the Exchange to reform the existing Growth Enterprise Market and cater for an emerging class of 'new economy' companies, creating three separate boards with a staggered approach to regulatory restrictions. This will entail the new unrelated private market, a lightly-regulated 'New Board Pro' for professional investors, and a publicly available 'New Board Premium', with stringent listing criteria and profits requirements.

"Hong Kong has to find ways to...change its DNA. These creative and new economy companies represent the future and we have to make Hong Kong a welcoming home for these companies and their investors from China and everywhere else," says Li. "The key principle is to identify companies whose businesses are in sectors where people rather than investment capital is the key, and creativity, innovation, technology, intellectual property, and new ways of commerce in totality are the primary drivers for its growth and business successes."

Output: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has announced plans to launch a private market using blockchain to provide a platform for pre-IPO companies. Launching next year, the HKEX Private Market will take care of early stage businesses in its ecosystem before they head into the public markets, offering support for start-ups entering the wider world and catering for "new economy" companies.


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Likelihood of achieving Paris climate targets just 5%
 There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change.

Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the study states.

The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.

“We’re closer to the margin than we think,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington academic who led the research, published in Nature Climate Change. “If we want to avoid 2C, we have very little time left. The public should be very concerned.”

Governments settled on the 2C threshold partly through political expediency but also because scientists have warned of severe consequences from sea level rise, drought, heatwaves and social unrest should the temperature rise beyond this.

Such risks have been underscored by a separate study, also released on Monday, that shows unabated climate change will cause around 60,000 deaths globally in 2030 and 260,000 deaths by 2100. The study, by the University of North Carolina, found that rising temperatures will exacerbate air pollutants that will particularly threaten those with existing conditions.

According to the University of Washington study, there is a 90% likelihood that temperatures will rise between 2C and 4.9C by 2100. This would put the world in the mid-range warming scenarios mapped out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It negates the most optimistic outcome as well as the worst case, which would see temperatures climb nearly 6C beyond the pre-industrial era.

Rather than look at how greenhouse gases will influence temperature, the new research analyzed the past 50 years of trends in world population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon intensity, which is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each dollar of economic activity.

After building a statistical model covering a range of emissions scenarios, the researchers found that carbon intensity will be a crucial factor in future warming. Technological advances are expected to cut global carbon intensity by 90% over the course of the century, with sharp declines in China and India – two newly voracious consumers of energy. However, this decline still will not be steep enough to avoid breaching the 2C limit.

The world’s population is expected to grow to about 11 billion people by 2100, but the research found that this will have a relatively small impact upon temperatures as much of this growth will take place in sub-Saharan Africa, which is a minor contributor of greenhouse gas emissions.

It has long been acknowledged that emissions cuts promised under the the Paris agreement would not be sufficient to avoid 2C warming. However, it is hoped that periodic reviews of commitments will result in more severe reductions.

Donald Trump’s pledge to remove the US, the world’s second-largest emitter, from the accord has cast a large shadow over these ambitions.

“Even if the 2C target isn’t met, action is very important,” said Raftery. “The more the temperature increases, the worse the impacts will be.

“We would warn against any tendency to use our results to say that we won’t avoid 2C, and so it’s too late to do anything. On the contrary, avoiding the higher temperature increases that our model envisages is even more important, and also requires urgent action.”

Raftery acknowledged that a breakthrough technology could “dramatically” change the outlook but noted that major advances of the past 50 years, such as the computer, robotics, hybrid cars, the internet and electronic fuel injection, have improved carbon efficiency steadily at around 2% a year, rather than in huge jumps.

Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who was not involved in the study, said the research’s conclusions were “reasonable” but said it was difficult to assign a precise probability to future temperature rises.

“I agree that staying below 2C and 1.5C are unlikely and very, very unlikely, respectively,” he said. “But this research gives a false sense of rigor. Tomorrow someone could invent a carbon-free energy source that everyone adopts.

“If you look at technology adoption and action taken on the ozone layer and acid rain, it’s clear these things can change faster than people predict.”

Dessler said the falling cost of renewable energy would be a major factor in reducing emissions but further impetus would be needed through new actions such as a price on carbon.

“It’s like you’re driving and about to collide with the car in front of you,” he said. “You want to hit the brakes as fast as you can. The later you wait, the more painful it’s going to be.”

John Sterman, an academic at the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, said the research was an “urgent call to action”. MIT research has shown that emissions cuts in the Paris agreement would stave off around 1C of temperature increase by 2100 – findings misrepresented by Trump when he announced the US departure from the pact.

Sterman said the US must “dramatically speed the deployment of renewable energy and especially energy efficiency. Fortunately, renewables, storage and other technologies are already cheaper than fossil energy in many places and costs are falling fast.

“More aggressive policies are urgently needed, but this study should not be taken as evidence that nothing can be done.”

Output: The likelihood of the Earth achieving the 2C warming target set by the Paris Climate Agreement is just 5%, according to research from the University of Washington. The chance of achieving the Agreement’s aspirational target of a 1.5C rise is just 1%. The research also found there is a 90% likelihood of temperatures increasing by between 2C and 4C by 2100. Researchers studied trends in population growth and per capita gross domestic product to estimate the increases. Carbon intensity, a measurement of the amount of CO2 emitted per dollar of economic activity, was identified as a key factor in future increases.


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Regus Demand for co-working space shores up HK's lease market
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According to JLL's latestreport, returning office stock arising from expiring leases led to a net withdrawal of 16,000 sq. ft in the Grade A office market in June 2017. Yet despite the contraction of the occupier market, the leasing activity remained robust, led by demand from co-working and serviced office operators seeking out expansion opportunities.The last few months has seen an unprecedented amount of take-up from the co-working sector with both new entrants and traditional occupiers. "In a market where net demand growth has been thin, the arrival of co-working space operators represents a welcome source of new demand for the leasing market," says Paul Yien, Regional Director of HK Markets at JLL.Last year, JLL helped WeWork secure a flagship location along Jaffe Road in Causeway, leasing 93,000 sq. ft over nine floors at Tower 535. Since then, the market has seen a number of other operators, including some of the city's incumbent serviced office operators establishing and announcing plans to set up new locations in the city. Regus, for example, has reportedly just pre-committed 26,800 sq. ft at Lee Garden Three in Causeway Bay. Naked Hub, a Shanghai-based operator, has planned to expand in Hong Kong and has leased sixteen floors with 55,000 sq. ft at EIB Centre (will be renamed to Bonham Circus) in Sheung Wan.The growing popularity of co-working offices in Hong Kong is not only being driven by start-ups but also increasingly by larger corporate occupiers looking to better utilize their real estate within the city; taking advantage of the greater flexibility, convenience and savings that can be provided by operators."As most Grade A offices in Central may be beyond the reach of the business models adopted by co-working space operators, the impact of these new market entrants will be felt more in Grade B offices and office markets outside of Central. Landlords may also consider bringing in co-sharing office operators into their portfolios to help broaden their tenant base," Denis Ma, Head of Research at JLL, points out.Beyond co-working space operators, PRC banking and finance firms continued to be the key drivers of leasing activity in Central, accounting for about 46% of all new lettings in terms of floor area. China RE Asset Management relocated and expanded in-house by 11,200 sq. ft at Three Exchange Square while a Mainland China investment company leased 10,800 sq. ft at 181 Queen's Road Central.Rents in Central advanced 0.3% m-o-m, surpassing the record highs set in 2008. Rents in all other major office markets remained broadly stable against tight vacancy rates.

Output: Robust demand from co-working and serviced office operators has shored up leasing activity in Hong Kong, according to JLL's latest monthly market monitor report, which showed returning office stock from expired leases led to a net withdrawal of 16,000 sq ft of grade A office space in June. Growing popularity of co-working offices, a series of arrivals, including WeWork's flagship 93,000 sq ft location at Tower 535 Jaffe Road in Causeway, and activity among incumbents like Regus, which recently pre-committed 26,800 sq ft at Lee Garden Three in Causeway Bay, have delivered "a welcome source of new demand for the leasing market," said JLL's Regional Director of HK Markets, Paul Yien.


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Mystro app allows drivers to easily switch between Uber and Lyft
 Like many drivers of ride-hailing services, Herb Coakley knew working for both Uber and Lyft could maximize his earnings.

Roughly two thirds of drivers work for at least two services, according to a survey of more than 1,000 drivers from a popular industry blog, The Rideshare Guy.

But Coakley realized toggling between two phones and the apps was inefficient and required a lot of dexterity while on the road. Many drivers log into separate phones to increase their odds of getting ride requests. But they have to remember to turn the other one off once a ride is accepted to avoid more requests from popping up.

He took matters into his own hands and built Mystro, an app that pulls ride requests from both services into one platform.

Mystro, an Android app for now, allows drivers to set preferences for which rides they want or don't want to accept. For example, they can filter out UberPOOL requests, rides that are more than 5 minutes away and passengers with ratings below 4.8. And it promises that drivers will earn 30% more using its service.

"Drivers feel they don't have a lot of control, and we give them some [of it] back," he said.

Mystro automatically accepts trips that meet preferences and sets other ride-hailing apps to offline until the trip is complete.

Related: Uber-like carpooling is coming to NYC taxis

Coakley said his idea proved more difficult to execute than anticipated because Mystro doesn't have access to Uber or Lyft's servers. It took about two years for Coakley, who has a background in physics and filmmaking, to find developer and cofounder Matt Rajcok. He built Mystro without plugging into Uber or Lyft's APIs.

Coakley declined to discuss how Mystro collects information from Uber and Lyft, but said the company does not violate privacy policies.

Mystro has raised $120,000 in funding from Y Combinator, where it is currently participating in its elite three-month accelerator program. It also raised $100,000 from one of Coakley's passengers, a Google employee who was intrigued by the concept. The app, which launched in February 2017, has 10,000 users to date.

Last month, Coakley began monetizing the app. Drivers can opt to pay $11.95 monthly or $99.95 a year, which includes expedited tech support. A free version of the app gets drivers access to Mystro for 10 trips each week.

Coakley aims to add additional on-demand services to its platform like DoorDash and Postmates in the future. He also hopes Uber and Lyft will eventually integrate with the app.

"We can help Uber and Lyft with retention problems," he said.

Uber is currently campaigning to quell driver dissent and make itself a more attractive company for employees. It is running an ongoing "180 Days of Change" initiative, a corporate cleanup effort that's rolling out changes to improve its service for drivers.

"We're all friends here," Coakley said. "We're all just trying to make our community safer and more efficient."

Output: Android app Mystro provides a single platform for drivers to receive requests from ride-hailing services Uber and Lyft. The app, which doesn't use Uber or Lyft's APIs or servers, enables drivers to filter passengers by their proximity and rating. Mystro refused to discuss exactly how the app gathers data from Uber and Lyft, but maintains it does not breach privacy policies. Those using the app earn 30% more, according to the company. About two thirds of drivers use at least two ride-hailing services, according to a report from industry blog The Rideshare Guy.


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Italian ski resort closes roads to boost cyclotourism
 A ski resort in Italy is experimenting with closing sections of its mountain roads in an effort to become a mecca for road cyclists during the summer season.

Alta Badia in the Italian Dolomites has hosted three “bike only” days this summer to boost its cyclo-tourism credentials and capitalise on the trend for closed-roads sportives.

The scheme, which sees some of the most famous climbs in road cycling closed to motor vehicles, has attracted thousands of riders to the region and could be expanded beyond the resort.

The Unesco world heritage site is best known for its high-end ski resorts but has hosted large road and mountain bike events for years, including regular appearances in the Giro d’Italia.

The 31st edition of the Maratona dles Dolomites, one of the largest mass participation rides in cycling, was hosted in Alta Badia last month and was bookended by the closed-road free ride days.

Sportives, which allow amateur riders to experience closed roads in settings similar to professional cyclists, have exploded in popularity over the last decade.

The Prudential RideLondon-Surrey 100 which took place last weekend hosted about 28,000 riders who covered up to 100 miles (160km) on closed roads through the capital and into the countryside of southern England.

Similar events are held almost every weekend around the UK and Europe. But the sportive phenomenon has been criticised for over-crowding rides and commercialising the sport.

The craze for closed roads without a timed course to cover, such as the one trialled in Alta Badia, could be seen as a way to avoid oversubscribed sportives.

The latest bike-only day in July closed the Campolongo, Falzarego and Valparola mountain passes, all roads that featured in the last two editions of the Giro d’Italia.

The stretch of road closed to cars was 51km long, included almost 1,300 metres of climbing, and was closed to traffic from 10am to 3pm.

Output: Italian ski resort Alta Badia is temporarily closing parts of its mountain roads in order to attract road cyclists during the summer season. The resort, in the Italian Dolomites, has this summer hosted three “bike only” days which have attracted thousands of riders. The scheme could now be extended beyond the resort. “Sportives”, which enable amateur cyclists to experience closed road settings resembling those used by professionals, have become increasingly popular over the past decade.


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Instagram Stories boasts impressive growth on first birthday
 It might be hard to believe, but Instagram Stories is already turning one year old.

Instagram’s Snapchat clone hits its first anniversary today, and the Facebook-owned app has spent much of 2017 heavily investing in bringing vertical video and augmented reality filters to the format. As a result, Instagram is growing rapidly, adding 50 million daily users in just two months to hit 250 million daily users in June. In comparison, Snapchat’s own platform had just 166 million as of the first quarter of this year, according to the company’s most recent quarterly earnings.

When it first introduced Stories last year, Instagram was immediately accused of copying Snapchat as a way of siphoning its growing user base ahead of its inevitable IPO back in February.

Output: Instagram Stories, the Facebook-owned company's year-old photo sharing feature, counts more than 250 million daily users. Meanwhile, rival Snapchat attracts 166 million daily users. Additionally, Stories is used for 32 minutes each day by those under 25, and 24 minutes per day for over 25s, while Snapchat claims 30 minutes per day for under 25s and 20 minutes per day for over 25s. Since Instagram announced its daily usage outstripped its rival's, the share price for Snapchat's parent company, Snap, has dipped to an all-time low of $12.67.


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US scientists develop graphene-based catalyst to split water
 Scientists at Rice University and the University of Houston have developed a catalyst that can simplify the splitting of water into hydrogen and oxygen to produce clean energy. The electrolytic film is a three-layer structure of nickel, graphene and a compound of iron, manganese and phosphorus. The foamy nickel gives the film a large surface, the conductive graphene protects the nickel from degrading and the metal phosphide carries out the reaction.

The film was developed to overcome barriers that usually make a catalyst good for producing either oxygen or hydrogen, but not both simultaneously - as is often the case with regular metals. The team explained that normally, a hydrogen evolution reaction is done in acid and an oxygen evolution reaction is done in base. This work produced one material that is stable whether it's in an acidic or basic solution. In addition, the team used rather common materials in lieu of the usually-required platinum and other costly materials.

The new catalyst also requires less energy, the team said. The overpotential (the amount of energy required to trigger electrocatalysis) is small, and quite competitive with other materials. The lower it is, the closer you come to making it as efficient as possible for water splitting.

Graphene, the atom-thick form of carbon, is key to protecting the underlying nickel. One to three layers of graphene are formed on the nickel foam in a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) furnace, and the iron, manganese and phosphorus are added on top of that, also via CVD and from a single precursor. Tests compared nickel foam and the phosphide both with and without graphene in the middle and found the conductive graphene lowered charge-transfer resistance for both hydrogen and oxygen reactions. The manganese adds a level of protection as well.

The researchers said the material is scalable and should find use in industries that produce hydrogen and oxygen or by solar- and wind-powered facilities that can use electrocatalysis to store off-peak energy.

It may also be adapted to produce other advanced materials. "Our method could be widely applicable to a large number of metal phosphide materials for catalystsânot just for water splitting, but for a range of things," the scientists said.

Output: Researchers at Rice University and the University of Houston have developed a catalyst that can ease the process of splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen to create energy. Using an electrolytic film made of three layers – one of graphene, one of nickel and one a compound of iron – simultaneously, unlike most catalysts used in electrolysis, means that less energy is needed to trigger the catalyst. The material is also scalable and could be used by renewable energy projects to store energy, said the researchers.


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New York's Food52 platform finds new ways to draw in advertisers
 Seemingly every publisher has a content studio to chase branded content revenue. Food52 is among the publishers trying to find ways to differentiate, like BuzzFeed with its sponsored quizzes and Bloomberg with sponsored interactive features. One of Food52’s challenges is that food content is everywhere now. Advertisers are also moving away from clicks as a way to measure branded content’s effectiveness in favor of ads that people spend a lot of time with or are shown to drive sales.

“We’re getting more and more requests that we want to tie this branded content into a sales research study,” said Sam Stahl, CRO at Food52. “Everyone’s getting more sophisticated and saying, ‘We’re spending all this money on branded content; we need to see it’s resulting in ROI.’”

Output: New York-based food website Food52 has devised a number of editorial features aimed at improving advertisers' return on investment. It has sold space on its menu generator to an advertiser, which will offer custom recipes as well as the standard ones, and its hotline will provide sponsor's answers as well ones from site users. Another feature Food52 is pitching is a recipe game. Chief revenue officer Sam Stahl said the ad rate is "significantly higher" for its tools compared with standard native ads.


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Indian government to use social media in tax assessments
 A photo of your shiny new car on Instagram or the Facebook post about your chic holiday cottage may lead India's taxman to your door.

Starting next month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will begin amassing a warehouse of virtual information collected not just from traditional sources like banks but also from social media sites, as it looks to match residents' spending patterns with income declarations, said people familiar with the matter. Officials will be able to spot those who pay too little tax without raiding offices and homes as they currently do, the people said, asking not to be identified citing rules on speaking with the media.

Built over seven years at a cost of about Rs. 100 crores ($156 million), 'Project Insight' will complement the world's largest biometric identity database and India's most ambitious tax overhaul as policy makers try to get more people to pay up. While the economy is among the fastest-growing in the world, revenues aren't keeping pace, bloating Modi's budget deficit and triggering anxiety about over-zealous tax sleuths.

"Data analytics is the way forward for tax administrations across the world," said Amit Maheshwari, managing partner at accountancy firm Ashok Maheshwary and Associates near New Delhi. "This will also put an end to harassment by tax officials as there will be no public interface. Perceived randomness in scrutiny will come to an end."

Countries including Belgium, Canada and Australia are already using big data to unearth tax evasion that may have gone undetected without technology. India's efforts resemble the UK's 'Connect,' which is estimated to have cost some GBP 100 million. Since its inception in 2010, it has prevented the loss of GBP 4.1 billion ($5.4 billion) in revenue and the number of criminal prosecutions has risen to 1,165 from 165 a year, the London-based Institute of Financial Accountants said in a December 2016 report.

India's Finance Ministry spokesman D.S. Malik declined to comment on Project Insight. The government said last year it had contracted L&T Infotech - an arm of India's largest engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro - to help build the network and boost voluntary compliance.

This is a long term project for L&T Infotech, chief executive officer and managing director Sanjay Jalona said, without specifying a time frame. The company has agreed to the build-own-operate-transfer model, which means that while it will be running the project and earning revenues during the contract period, it will ultimately transfer the network to the government once the contract runs out. India's tax-to-GDP ratio is about 17 percent compared with 25 percent for most Asian countries, according to government data.

Compliance will rise 30 percent to 40 percent during the first phase of the project, the people said. During this time all existing data - including credit card spends, property and stock investments, cash purchases and deposits - will be migrated to the new system and a central team will send postal or email blasts to prod residents to file tax declarations. There will be no physical interaction, they said.

The second phase will be rolled out by December, during which data analytics will mine, clean and process the information. Individual spending profiles will be created and inquiries will be more targeted. In the last phase, which will go live around May 2018, advanced systems will be used to predict future defaults and flag risks.

'Safeguards are must'

Some analysts recommend that the government use its tools for tax forecasting. Data analytics could show how much business has slumped in a certain town following a flood, for example, which would help authorities better assess aid requirements as well as predict local revenues and plan finances.

The scope of the project has also led to concerns in a country where the government has repeatedly told the Supreme Court it doesn't consider privacy to be an absolute right. The OECD studied 21 countries that use technology to detect tax fraud and said in a March 31 report that while such methods offer a win-win by making compliance cheaper as well as boosting revenue, they must be accompanied by legislative measures and taxpayer consultation.

"Safeguards are must," said Rahul Garg, head of direct tax at PwC India. "It has to be seen how effectively data, which has become invaluable, is used for governance."

© 2017 Bloomberg L.P.

Output: India will launch a new initiative next month aimed at increasing its 17% tax-to-GDP ratio by using data from social media sites and banks to build up a picture of residents' spending habits, according to anonymous insiders. Project Insight, which has been seven years in the making and cost $156m, will work alongside the world's largest biometric identity database and dovetail with India's planned tax overhaul. The big data model is similar to those used by Belgium, Canada and Australia, and will be rolled out in three phases.


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Kickers shoes urgency to purchase campaign pays off
 The U.K. licensee of the Kickers shoe brand, Pentland Brands, wants to make shoppers so concerned about missing out on items on its sites that they feel compelled to make purchases.

One way the brand is creating FOMO is through persistent visual reminders of what people are viewing on Kickers’ site.

When shoppers visit product pages on the Kickers site, online performance specialist Yieldify serves them with a notification that shows how many other people have viewed the same item in the past 24 hours.

This creates an “urgency to purchase,” said Rob Burr, digital commerce manager at Pentland Brands. During the test month in April, the percentage of people who saw the counter next to a product and went on to buy the item versus those who didn’t see the counter reached what the brand deemed a “statistically significant” level, leading it to stop the test and serve the campaign to all the site’s visitors for the next two months. Between April and June, the campaign generated a 17.9 percent conversion rate, enough for Pentland’s marketers to greenlight it for their brands such as Canterbury and Boxfresh in the coming months.

Burr said the tactic was “just the nudge” shoppers need toward making their purchases “without having to offer a discount.” Bringing urgency to the company’s product pages is, as he sees it, a conversion strategy that doesn’t necessarily give away margin. The need to continue that momentum was highlighted in Pentland Brands’ latest financial results, which were buoyed by its relationship with retailers such as JD Sports, deals where the shoe maker’s margins are slimmest.

“We want to attract and develop a loyal customer base that are not only focused on the cheapest price,” Burr said. “It’s challenging because a large part of our business is wholesale, in that customers we sell to range from Amazon to Sports Direct. We have to work much harder in that regard because our margins are being pushed all the time, and so the more tactics like [FOMO] that we can engage in — whether that’s through CRM or social — the better.”

Consequently, the footwear manufacturer has piloted other conversion drivers on the Kickers site in recent months such as free delivery and free gifts instead of discounts. A low-cost free gift can be as effective at driving a conversion as a discount, said the retailer. When visitors attempted to leave the Kickers site in April, they were shown a notification offering free delivery and a free Kickers bag with their purchases. The company said this performed “especially well on mobile,” delivering an 88.3 percent conversion rate during the trial period.

Output: Pentland Brands, owner of the Kickers footwear range, has revealed that creating an urgency to purchase led to a 17.9% conversion rate during testing between April and June this year. The company is looking for ways of engaging customers without offering discounts, such as by telling them how many other people have viewed a product in the past 24 hours. Pentland also revealed the offer of free delivery and a free bag was a success among mobile users, resulting in an 88.3% conversion rate during the same trial period.


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Baillie Gifford enters ethical sector with Positive Change fund
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Edinburgh-based fund management giant Baillie Gifford has launched its first ever fund focused solely on companies making a positive social impact in areas such as education, the environment and healthcare.

The firm, which has funds under management amounting to over £166bn, claims that the new Positive Change fund differs from other socially-oriented vehicles in that it specifically invests in companies who make contributing towards a more sustainable and inclusive world a core business aim.

Top holdings in a new fund include Tesla, the electrical car and energy storage pioneer and Alphabet, parent company of Google.

Portfolio construction is driven by bottom-up stock selection covering themes like social inclusion and education, environmental needs, and healthcare and quality of life.

Part of the Investment Association's Global sector, Baillie Gifford said the goal of the fund was to outperform the MSCI All Country World index by 2% annually over five-year rolling periods.

The fund is relatively concentrated, holding between 25 and 50 stocks at any one time, while portfolio turnover is expected to be below 20% per year over the long term.

A team of six investment managers from different teams across the venerable investment manager and two corporate governance specialists will be responsible for managing the vehicle, which was seeded earlier this year with £5m from the Baillie Gifford partnership and is now open to external investors.

Lee Qian, investment manager within the international equities team and one of the managers of the Positive Change fund, said: "We believe businesses and innovations have the potential to make tremendous improvements to people's lives.

"We further believe companies seeking to effect positive social and environmental change will see rising demand for their products and services and are therefore naturally growth companies.

"By focusing on a subset of those companies that enjoy sustainable competitive advantages and are run by committed management teams, we aim to deliver attractive investment returns over the long term."

The fund, domiciled in the UK, has an estimated ongoing charge of 0.65% for class B shares.

Output: Scottish fund manager Baillie Gifford has launched the Positive Change fund, its first vehicle for investing specifically in companies that contribute to a "sustainable and inclusive world". Baillie Gifford said the fund's goal was to outperform the MSCI All Country World index by 2% a year, over five-year rolling periods. Lee Qian, an investment manager at the firm, said: "We believe companies seeking to effect positive social and environmental change will see rising demand for their products and services and are therefore naturally growth companies." The firm has £166bn ($217bn) of assets under management and holdings include Alphabet and Tesla.


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Vungle and Amazon cooperate to bring users to Fire tablets
 Missed the GamesBeat Summit excitement? Don't worry! Tune in now to catch all of the live and virtual sessions here.

Vungle and Amazon are working together on user-acquisition campaigns to the online retailer’s Fire tablets. In doing so, it is bringing attention to the little-noticed growth of Amazon’s devices. Market researcher IDC said that adoption of Amazon devices increased 1,200 percent in 2016. This could help developers improve their monetization and reach on Amazon devices.

The Vungle SDK for the Amazon Appstore will be available in September.

“Fire tablet users are a rapidly growing and sought-after audience. With Vungle’s support for Fire tablets, our advertisers can now tap into this valuable user base,” said Vungle CEO Zain Jaffer. “We have made a strategic investment in our support for the Amazon platform, and Vungle is the first video performance marketing platform developers can use to monetize their apps across all major app platforms: Fire OS, Android, iOS and Windows.”

The support means that publishers and advertisers can reach both gamers and non-game consumers with relevant, targeted advertising on more devices around the world.

At least one developer I spoke with said they weren’t that excited about moving their games over to the Fire tablets, and that means running ads on Fire isn’t that attractive.

I asked why Jaffer thought support for the Fire tablets was important. He replied, “Amazon is a growing force in advertising. It made nearly $1.4 billion in advertising revenue last year and is expected to reach $1.8 billion this year. While that’s only a fraction of the ad market right now, our customers tell us that the Amazon Appstore has great user value. In fact, for many it represents an important part of their overall revenue. We expect this will continue to increase.”

He added, “Additionally, Vungle complements Amazon’s existing business in several ways, which will benefit both companies and our mutual developers. Any chance to work with them more closely is an exciting opportunity for us, and it opens more doors for our advertising and publishing partners.”

Output: Performance marketing platform Vungle is partnering with Amazon to acquire users for the retail giant's Fire tablets. Vungle enables developers to monetise their apps across Windows, Fire and Android OS. The plaform, which is releasing a software development kit in September, aims to enable advertisers to engage gamers and non-gamers alike, amid a growing market for Amazon devices. Adoption of Fire rose 1,200% in 2016, according to researcher IDC.


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$25m extorted from ransomware victims in 2 years
 Security

Ransomware Extorts $25 Million in Payments over 2 Years

A team of researchers from New York University (NYU), University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and Google estimates that victims of ransomware have paid out more than $25 million over the last two years.

The team, which also included researchers from Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis firm, examined 300,000 files from more than 30 different kinds of ransomware and tracked blockchain payments to estimate the amount and scale of money paid by victims. Their findings were presented at the Black Hat USA 2017 conference.

Danny Yuxing Huang, a Ph.D. candidate in Computer Science and Engineering UCSD and one of the researchers on the project, tracked bitcoins as they moved from potential victims to ransomware operators and from ransomware operators to coin exchanges, perhaps for liquidation.

"By masquerading as a part of the ransomware infrastructure," said Huang in a prepared statement, "I also gathered statistics on infected computers, such as the number of infections over time, and the geographical distribution of infected machines."

Last year was the first year ransomware was a multi-million-dollar industry, according to the researchers, and it wasn't necessarily the most well known ransomware that accounted for that growth.

The WannaCry attack, for example, generated seemingly endless headlines as it froze hospitals and more than 10,000 other organizations out of their own records, but it only pulled in about $140,000, good for the 11th spot on the list of ransomware with the largest payouts.

The researchers also noted that WannaCry wasn't true ransomware, but wipeware, as victims were not able to retrieve their data even after paying the ransom.

Locky and Cerber grabbed fewer headlines than WannaCry, but they're raking in money at $7.8 million and $6.9 million, respectively, in paid ransoms to date.

Locky is also notable for being the first ransomware to generate more than $1 million in monthly payments.

"Locky's big advantage was the decoupling of the people who maintain the ransomware from the people who are infecting machines," said Damon McCoy, assistant professor of computer science at NYU, in a prepared statement. "Locky just focused on building the malware and support infrastructure. Then they had other botnets spread and distribute the malware, which were much better at that end of the business."

Output: Over the last two years, ransomware victims have paid out at least $25m, with lesser-known viruses Locky and Cerber responsible for $7.8m and $6.9m respectively, according to researchers at New York University, Google and the University of California, San Diego. Their findings, which will be presented at this year's Black Hat USA conference, also revealed 2016 was the year in which the ransomware industry was generating multiple millions of dollars


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Robots do five times more work than humans: Credit Suisse CEO
 The CEO at Credit Suisse has expressed his confidence in robotics to continue cutting costs after making gains in the second quarter this year from ‘intense’ restructuring.

Speaking on the quarterly earnings call, Tidjane Thiam, told investors the bank introduced 58 robots into production so far this year, anticipating 150 in total by year-end.

“In operations, a robot manages five times more transactions than a human being,” he said.

Within the global markets business at Credit Suisse, Thiam confidently stated the firm is on track to cut costs to CHF 4.8 billion for the full year.

Outsourced resources have decreased around 23% since December 2015 and 80% of those are under managed capacity contracts. The bank said it is looking to move two-thirds of these to managed services to bring about a further 30-40% of savings.

Global markets produced CHF 3.2 billion in net revenues in the first half of this year, up 15% compared to the same period last year. Thiam described this as “a very important milestone for us,” despite its fixed income trading sales plummeting 29% year-on-year.

“The difficult environment for equities sales and trading continued in the second quarter with lower market volatility and a continued low level of client activity, particularly in equity derivatives, albeit the performance in cash was more resilient year-on-year,” he said.

Equity derivatives, a traditionally strong area for Credit Suisse, particularly in Asia, was hit hard by the low volatility.

Thiam explained: “We’re not getting those revenues. And we have a continued upside of connecting APAC market better with the wealth management business.

“There's a strong demand from our clients to access our trading platform, and there is much more we can do there.”

Chief financial officer at Credit Suisse, David Mathers, revealed plans to move the emerging market finance and derivatives businesses into a formal partnership of international wealth management and the Swiss Universal Bank.

He said the partnership will ‘substantially’ increase the diversity of product offerings for clients and improve the integration between the trading businesses and its private banking flows.

Output: Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has given his blessing to the bank's use of artificial intelligence platforms, saying they've helped cut costs, and asserted that robots can manage "five times more transactions than a human being". The lender has already deployed 58 robots this year and plans to introduce about 100 more by the end of December. Such automation will continue to be used to cut costs, said Thiam.


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Mapp Digital to challenge larger marketing companies
 Mapp Digital, the Marlin Equity-backed holding company housing the remnants of Teradata’s marketing tech stack, wants to take some business from the larger marketing clouds.

One way it hopes to get there is by attracting upper mid-market and enterprise buyers like KFC and Infiniti that are looking for a modular marketing cloud with managed services – not just an all-in-one SaaS stack.

Mapp, which launched last fall, aims to be a marketing services provider for clients who may not have the expertise to manage their marketing platform in-house.

About 30% of Mapp’s revenue is generated through partners like agencies and consultants.

“Our competitors do well with clients that have an army of marketers and data scientists who want the most features, don’t care if they use it all and are willing to pay a lot for it,” said Mike Biwer, CEO of Mapp Digital, who joined the company in 2015 when Marlin Equity acquired the BlueHornet email platform.

Mapp claims that unlike established marketing clouds caught in a “feature war,” its stack is fully integrated.

It also says assets like its data management platform (Teradata acquired the Dutch DMP FLXOne in 2015) are more affordable than its competitors’ offerings.

And, should a client lack the resources to deploy and maintain a DMP in-house, Mapp can hook it up with its services arm or partners.

But despite its claims of being fully integrated, components of the Teradata mar tech stack are made up of older technologies like the email system eCircle, which was founded in 1999.

And if Teradata couldn’t successfully pull off a mar tech rollup, how does Mapp Digital expect to get it done?

“I think other things got in the way and [Teradata] never achieved full synergies and the integration that they wanted,” Biwer acknowledged. “Thankfully we’re able to seize that opportunity with Mapp, but we realize in some cases the platform is not as modern as we want it to be.”

With Marlin’s backing, Mapp is doubling down on user experience to make its technology platforms more intuitive.

It also is hiring a CTO with “deep expertise” in machine learning and artificial intelligence and will invest “heavily” in R&D, Biwer said.

For Mapp to compete long-term, it won’t be as bottom-line-focused as other PE deals that ended in divesture, according to Biwer.

“I think a lot of companies have fallen in the trap of having to improve the bottom line at a level that was probably detrimental to their success,” Biwer said. “We want to be a strong, independent business within the Marlin portfolio, but to grow the business as fast as possible.

“We aren’t overly constrained to just trying to drive profitability. We’re more focused on execution.”

Output: Marketing services provider start-up Mapp Digital, backed by Marlin Equity, aims to attract mid-size clients looking for a modular marketing cloud with managed services, but who may lack the skills necessary to manage their platform themselves. CEO Mike Biwer said the company's stack is fully integrated, and comes at a lower cost than rivals, but also admitted "in some cases the platform is not as modern as we want it to be”.


Instruction: create a high quality summary of the given input

Input:
JPMorgan approves global rollout of AI-driven trade execution bot
 Are Artificial Intelligence (AI) programs more efficient than traditional buying and selling methods? JPMorgan is the latest bank to pursue research into this field, developing a first generation bot to execute trades across its global Equities Equities Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa Read this Term algorithm business. Per the group’s latest trial however, the AI utility known as LOXM was shown to demonstrate improved efficiency over existing means, per an FT report.

The London Summit 2017 is coming, get involved!

Exactly what this means for the broader equities industry is simply a matter of conjecture at this juncture. Robotic trading or the use of AI rather has long been seen as a natural evolution amongst financial firms. However, humans have retained an integral focus at all major venues even as the industry moves towards more algo-focused trading regimes.

LOXM is in control

JPMorgan had been developing its own AI, LOXM, which was given a trial run for its European equities segment. More specifically, the AI has been live since Q1 2017 with early performance analysis yielding positive returns. The performance has evidently been so successful that the lender is green lighting its launch for Q4 in Asia and the US across its platform.

Indeed, David Fellah of JPMorgan’s European Equity Quant Research team, commented: “Such customisation was previously implemented by humans, but now the AI machine is able to do it on a much larger and more efficient scale.”

Many other lenders have been tinkering with AI capabilities as well, though a Q4 launch would make JPMorgan one of the industry’s first to go live. The move is an endorsement for LOXM, whose central role is to execute client orders with optimized speed at the best price.

Cost efficiency driving innovation

This has been achieved through Machine Learning Machine Learning Machine learning is defined as an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that looks to automatically learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed. Machine learning is a rapidly growing field that also focuses on the development of computer programs that can access data and use it learn for themselves.This has many potential benefits for most industries and sectors, including the financial services industry. Machine Learning ExplainedMachine learning can be explained Machine learning is defined as an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that looks to automatically learn and improve from experience without being explicitly programmed. Machine learning is a rapidly growing field that also focuses on the development of computer programs that can access data and use it learn for themselves.This has many potential benefits for most industries and sectors, including the financial services industry. Machine Learning ExplainedMachine learning can be explained Read this Term techniques, i.e. using lessons it has learnt from billions of past trades on a simulated and real-time basis. Consequently, the AI has learned how to effectively reconcile a range of issues, including avoiding market price movements via the jettisoning of large equity stakes.

Ironically, the investments in LOXM as well as other AI initiatives were originally designed to help curtail costs for existing functions at investment banks. While hardly the only pioneer in this field, JPMorgan’s efforts and research appears to be paying early dividends, which can help cut down tremendously on multiple time consuming human-designated tasks, such as client post-trade allocation requests, among others.

A broader industry adoption could also yield a windfall for other banking segments, including gains across automatic hedging, market making, and others.

Output: JPMorgan has given the go-ahead for full deployment of its LOXM artificial intelligence trade execution bot after successful tests earlier this year. The system is expected to go live in Asia and the US in Q4, having been tested in the European equities sector. Driven by machine learning, based on analysis of billions of past trades, LOXM is said to have learned how to deal with a range of issues, including avoiding market price movements by jettisoning large equity stakes.


Instruction: create a high quality summary of the given input

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Improved lending conditions lead to Liverpool office boom: CBRE
 Liverpool is experiencing a boom in commercial property investments, with CBRE’s North West team playing a key role in several of the city’s most recent and high-profile transactions, including the sales of the iconic Royal Liver Building and the Grade 11 Listed, Exchange Flags development.

The global property experts highlight Liverpool’s emergence as a hot spot for property investment, which over the past 18 months has seen major assets changing hands in deals totalling more than £300m.

A recent and pivotal transaction was the sale of the iconic Royal Liver Building in February this year. CBRE advised on the sale, the very first time in the building’s history, attracting global investor interest before selling at £48 million to property giant Corestate, 30% in excess of the quoting price. The Grade I Listed building, owned by the Royal London Mutual Insurance Society, was put on the market for £40m in October.

Victoria Hill, Regional Director at CBRE’s Debt & Structured Finance division explains that securing debt for such transactions is now increasingly achievable. “As recently as a year ago, there would have been fewer lenders and terms would have been more conservative as it was a large lot size for the City. However, the City now has robust demand and supply dynamics for lending, and this transaction has put Liverpool firmly on the map..”

Victoria adds, “It was a privilege to work with such an experienced borrower and to share our expertise in the domestic debt market for their debut UK investment.”

Corestate’s decision to invest in Liverpool shows its confidence in the city’s economy – and has sparked a wave of interest from other global investors. As the UK’s fourth largest city, Liverpool boasts a young and highly educated population, thanks to having one of the highest student retention rates in the UK. The city is also home to more than 500,000 businesses within one and a half hours of the city centre.

In CBRE’s recent research study on the Creative Regions, Liverpool ranked highly for the quality of its universities, from both a teaching and research perspective. It’s also a city expected to see above average rates of growth in employment within the creative industries. The city also fared well in CBRE’s Law in The Region’s study in 2016, where it is was one of four key cities that formed a second tier of legal centres outside the capital, alongside Edinburgh, Glasgow and Leeds.

CBRE also acted for Hudson Advisors on the £45million sale of Exchange Flags offices and are currently advising the Knowledge Quarter Partnership, Liverpool’s largest proposed development project.

CBRE’s Building Consultancy team has worked across all Three Graces, including Cunard Building and the former offices of Mersey Docks and Harbour Board. The team has been instrumental in the preservation of the Royal Liver Building over the past 10 years having provided strategic advice, designed and project managed significant conservation projects in addition to providing strategic investment advice.

The Building team is currently providing conservation and building survey advice, design and project management in connection with a significant external refurbishment of the RLB’s neighbouring property, the Grade II* Listed Tower Buildings, which was also designed by the architect, Walter Aubrey Thomas, responsible for the RLB.

A major extension to Liverpool’s “Knowledge Quarter” could see investments totaling almost £1bn, according to the city’s Mayor. The area is part of Joe Anderson’s “Mayoral Development Zones”*

The Mayor is also hugely supportive of Everton Football Club in respect of a new city-centre stadium, tipped to be a transformational project on the waterfront. CBRE is part of Everton Football Club’s advisory team on the much-anticipated scheme.

Neil Kirkham, Director of CBRE’s Office Agency team, comments:

“CBRE has transacted approximately £250m worth of property across Liverpool and Merseyside in the past two years. It is an exciting time to live and work here, as illustrated by our pipeline of projects. Interest from Investors and occupiers have reached unprecedented levels in recent times, a reflection of the significant rental growth potential due to the lack of supply and the excellent demographic and economic factors to retain and attract talent”

CBRE’s Office Agency team has completed more than 165,000 sq ft of deals in the central business district over the last 12 months with more than 48% of market on floor area. More than 76 deals were done, equating to 63.87% of deals done in the City.

Out of town, CBRE has completed 136,416 sq ft of deals, including the largest acquisition in the market for Kura at Caspian House, Atlantic Park, totalling 34,983 sq ft. 30 out of town deals were completed overall, which account for almost half of total deals (47.5%) transacted.

The Liverpool team also completed the largest central business district arms length letting in 2016 at 22,572 sq ft to Armstrong Solicitors in The Plaza. The team was retained on key city centre assets, including Royal Liver Building, 4 St Paul’s Street, The Plaza, India Buildings, Watson Building, One Derby Square and 43 Castle Street.

Acquisitions totalling 177,000 sq ft were completed in the last year for Pershing Bank of New York, HP, Regus, HSBC, Cable & Wireless, Lloyds Register of Shipping, Hitsearch and KURA and the team actively sought accommodation for RCP, Alder Hey, The Football Pools, Sportspesa, Asics, Barclays, Wood Group and Lloyds Banking Group.

John Dunlop, Director of CBRE’s National Land & Development team, adds:

“Liverpool struggled to attract the same institutional interest as other regional centres in the early stages of the current residential cycle; so it’s exciting to see it become a hot investment area and play a part in its progress. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we’ve been involved in many high profile residential projects, including the pre-sale of Promenade Developments, Baltic Triangle residential scheme to Hermes-Countrywide JV, Vista. This represents the largest residential transaction in Liverpool City Centre this decade.”

The National Land and Development team in Liverpool has also been instrumental in key deals across the City, including selling the freehold interest and leasehold investment in King’s Dock Mill to Grainger for a client of Investec and putting Liverpool University’s Dale Hall campus in Mossley Hill under offer for residential development.

The team was also instructed by Sportech to dispose of its current offices in Walton and advised the business on its move to City Centre office space. Your Exclusive Developments instructed the team to source funding and JV partners hired the team for their development portfolio in the Baltic Triangle. A forward funding partner was also secured for MODA Living’s residential development at Liverpool Waters.

Liverpool continues to thrive and realise its billing as the next big property hot spot, with the city becoming a prime target for savvy developers and attracting significant inward investment. The city has also benefited this year from the election of a new metro mayor, putting is alongside only a handful of other UK cities (including Birmingham, Manchester and London), that will benefit from strategic management of resources across the wider city region.

Output: Improved and "robust demand and supply dynamics for lending" has enabled Liverpool, the UK's fourth-largest city, to become a hotspot for property investment, according to commercial real estate services firm CBRE. The past 18 months have seen deals totalling more than £300m ($394m) take place, among them the £48m sale of the iconic Royal Liver Building.


Instruction: create a high quality summary of the given input

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Americans think insurers should penalise smokers more than obese
 Americans may prefer to see health insurance rates increase for smokers than for people who are significantly overweight.

Justin McCarthy, an analyst at Washington-based Gallup Inc., has published data supporting that conclusion in a summary of results from a new consumer consumption habits survey.

Gallup based the results on telephone interviews with 1,021 adults in all 50 U.S. states conducted in early July. The company also conducted a similar survey in 2003.

(Related: Many Support Higher Premiums for Smokers)

About 43% of the participants said they approve of the idea of charging smokers higher rates. Just 37% approve of the idea of charging significantly overweight people higher rates.

Americans may be tougher on smokers because they have more sympathy for those who are overweight, McCarthy writes.

Americans may also believe that smoking has a bigger effect on health care costs than obesity does, McCarthy writes.

Output: Americans believe that insurance companies should charge higher premiums for smokers than severely obese people, according to a survey of consumer habits by Gallup. The study found that more than 40% of the 1,021 adults surveyed thought insurers should penalise smokers, while 37% said very overweight people ought to be charged more. Gallup analyst Justin McCarthy said the figures may be lower for obesity because Americans have more sympathy for their condition. They may also think that smoking incurs greater healthcare costs than obesity, he said.


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Reining in Drug Prices: Easier Said than Done
 WASHINGTON -- Some of the so-called solutions for reducing the price of prescription drugs are not as easy as they seem, experts said at a panel here hosted by the Alliance for Health Policy.

Ideas such as having the federal government negotiate drug prices or allowing importation of prescription drugs from other countries "sound good, but they're probably not going to work, or get through Congress," former House member Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) said at the event on Friday. "So we need to look at the problem in a more narrow way in order to get bipartisan support."

Although no "silver bullet" exists for lowering drug costs, there are some ideas worth considering, said Waxman, chairman of Waxman Strategies, a consulting firm here. For instance, in markets where no generic version exists for a particular drug, "Maybe we can look at policies that might provide targeted incentives FDA can implement to generate competition. The FDA can reach out and try to get a generic to come in and compete, or provide proactive government monitoring and oversight of pharmaceutical markets so it will be aware of the fact we're getting into a single-source drug that would drive up the price."

The FDA also could help by getting rid of the generic applications backlog, said Joel White, president of the Council for Affordable Health Coverage. "We've got a backlog of 4,000 generics at FDA so we need to do a better job of getting these products on market quicker." Passing the FDA Reauthorization Act would be a good first step, and [FDA commissioner Scott] Gottlieb indicated he's going to aggressively work to eliminate that backlog."

Another barrier to the creation of generic drugs is risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) -- the special prescribing requirements used to limit distribution of certain drugs, such as those that include a risk of birth defects. "Drugmakers hide behind REMS to say they won't make samples available to generic manufacturers so they can make a bioequivalent drug," said David Mitchell, president and founder of Patients for Affordable Drugs. He noted that the CREATES Act introduced by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) would make such behavior illegal.

Reducing Anticompetitive Behavior

Another problem to be fixed is anticompetitive behavior that undermines competition, such as "pay for delay" deals in which a brand-name drugmaker pays a generic firm to delay entering the market after the brand-name drug's patent expires, Waxman said. "There's no reason to have pay for delay -- I don't see a value in allowing [it]."

And the pharmaceutical distribution system "doesn't make central pricing information available to patients or providers and payers at the point of care," which could help patients choose which drug to take, he added. "Furthermore, patients, providers, and payers lack information about the effectiveness of drugs at the critical point when decisions are made. So perhaps we could look at greater transparency policies for drug pricing information, or invest in comparative effectiveness research."

Finally, "We could change federal law, which imposes limitations on states' authority to negotiate prices for Medicaid, or implement other price-related measures, like letting states operate pharmacy benefit management (PBM) organizations to leverage their negotiation powers," said Waxman. "These are just some ideas -- we're not recommending them, but putting them out there for consideration."

Encouraging Value-Based Payment

Payers are interested in value-based payment for drugs, but to do that, existing laws such as "best price" laws, anti-kickback laws, and the Stark self-referral law would need to be changed, White said. "And to make those arrangements more fruitful, we need more infrastructure and data investment."

Steve Miller, MD, chief medical officer of Express Scripts, a pharmacy benefit manager, gave an example of his company's use of paying for value. "We started the price war for hepatitis C drugs; we were able to get the price down to an [incredible] extent," he said (The hepatitis C treatment Solvadi cost close to $100,000 in 2014). "The old treatment for hepatitis C was ribavirin and interferon; that used to be $35,000. We now have the price of the current crop of hepatitis C treatments at $35,000, which is cheaper than they are in Europe."

To get that price, "we guaranteed that patients would be adherent to the drug or we'd refund anything that the plan sponsor had paid toward the drug," Miller explained. "We had to innovate; we had to develop predictive models to tell which patients would take the drugs, we had to develop cellphone apps and letter campaigns. To be very frank, I got the price down so low I could send a nurse to your house and shove the pills down your throat if I had to. And we were able to achieve adherence of 92%, better than in the clinical trial."

Miller urged more use of electronic systems. "We need to be compelling doctors to electronically prescribe, because they often can see the benefit design and see what's on the formulary," he said. "We also need controlled substances to be electronically prescribed. Electronic banking drove fraud and waste out of the banking industry -- electronic prescribing of controlled substances can do the same."

Consider the Overall Picture

Robert Zirkelbach, executive vice president of public affairs for the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), urged the audience to consider the overall picture when it comes to drug costs. "In 2014, we did have a spike in drug costs -- there were a record number of new approvals, including a hepatitis C drug, and fewer medications went off patient that year than is typical," he said. "But what people often forget is that in the 3 years prior to that, prescription drug spending was essentially flat, and since then, prescription drug cost trends have moderated significantly."

"Our system does a really good job of holding down costs for payers and the system as a whole, but it's not doing enough to make sure we're holding down costs for patients," he said. "Our own study found that brand-name companies only retained 63% of the list price of a medication -- that means 40% is going back to insurance companies, PBMs, the government, or other parts of the supply chain."

When it comes to the government's involvement, it's interesting that although Medicare can negotiate with many types of providers, "there's only one place where they can't negotiate -- drug benefits," Waxman said. Even with the advent of Medicare's Part D drug benefit, "it's quite amazing when suddenly Medicare is buying drugs for beneficiaries and bringing in millions of new patients, but it can't get a discount for all the patients that are there." Instead, Medicare has contracted with health plans to run the drug benefit programs, "and each plan [runs] a PBM system, and ... nobody knows what happens when a PBM gets a discount."

But there are drawbacks to having Medicare negotiate prices, Zirkelbach argued. "We know what happens when governments get into the business of setting formularies and setting prices. In every situation where that happens around the world, patients have less access to the newest, most innovative treatments."

Waxman disagreed. "I don't think we're at that point, but to say that it never can be done effectively, and you can't get access to breakthrough medications, I don't think is an accurate statement."

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Output: Some of the so-called solutions for reducing the price of prescription drugs are not as easy as they seem, experts said at a panel here hosted by the Alliance for Health Policy.