updated 23052024
Browse files- analysis.ipynb +2056 -0
- data/all_trades_profitability.parquet +2 -2
- data/fpmmTrades.parquet +2 -2
- data/fpmms.parquet +2 -2
- data/requests.parquet +2 -2
- data/summary_profitability.parquet +2 -2
- data/t_map.pkl +2 -2
- test.ipynb +0 -0
analysis.ipynb
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,2056 @@
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| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"cells": [
|
| 3 |
+
{
|
| 4 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 5 |
+
"execution_count": 1,
|
| 6 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 7 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 8 |
+
"source": [
|
| 9 |
+
"import pandas as pd\n",
|
| 10 |
+
"import re"
|
| 11 |
+
]
|
| 12 |
+
},
|
| 13 |
+
{
|
| 14 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 15 |
+
"execution_count": 2,
|
| 16 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 17 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 18 |
+
"source": [
|
| 19 |
+
"fpmms = pd.read_parquet('/Users/arshath/play/openautonomy/olas-prediction-live-dashboard/data/fpmms.parquet')\n",
|
| 20 |
+
"tools = pd.read_parquet('/Users/arshath/play/openautonomy/olas-prediction-live-dashboard/data/tools.parquet')\n",
|
| 21 |
+
"trades = pd.read_parquet('/Users/arshath/play/openautonomy/olas-prediction-live-dashboard/data/all_trades_profitability.parquet')"
|
| 22 |
+
]
|
| 23 |
+
},
|
| 24 |
+
{
|
| 25 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 26 |
+
"execution_count": 3,
|
| 27 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 28 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 29 |
+
"source": [
|
| 30 |
+
"def extract_question(text):\n",
|
| 31 |
+
" pattern = r'\"([^\"]+\\?)\"'\n",
|
| 32 |
+
" match = re.search(pattern, text)\n",
|
| 33 |
+
" if match:\n",
|
| 34 |
+
" return match.group(1)\n",
|
| 35 |
+
" return text"
|
| 36 |
+
]
|
| 37 |
+
},
|
| 38 |
+
{
|
| 39 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 40 |
+
"execution_count": 4,
|
| 41 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 42 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 43 |
+
"source": [
|
| 44 |
+
"def get_current_answer(q):\n",
|
| 45 |
+
" return trades[trades['title'] == q]['current_answer'].unique()"
|
| 46 |
+
]
|
| 47 |
+
},
|
| 48 |
+
{
|
| 49 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 50 |
+
"execution_count": 5,
|
| 51 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 52 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 53 |
+
"source": [
|
| 54 |
+
"# only select trades in May 2024\n",
|
| 55 |
+
"trades['creation_timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(trades['creation_timestamp'])\n",
|
| 56 |
+
"trades = trades[trades['creation_timestamp'].dt.month == 5]\n",
|
| 57 |
+
"trades = trades[trades['creation_timestamp'].dt.year == 2024]\n",
|
| 58 |
+
"\n",
|
| 59 |
+
"# make a column for winning_vote\n",
|
| 60 |
+
"tools['winning_vote'] = (tools['vote'] == tools['currentAnswer'])\n",
|
| 61 |
+
"tools = tools[tools['tool']!= 'resolve-market-reasoning-gpt-4'].reset_index(drop=True)"
|
| 62 |
+
]
|
| 63 |
+
},
|
| 64 |
+
{
|
| 65 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 66 |
+
"execution_count": 6,
|
| 67 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 68 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 69 |
+
"source": [
|
| 70 |
+
"tools['prompt_request'] = tools['prompt_request'].apply(extract_question)"
|
| 71 |
+
]
|
| 72 |
+
},
|
| 73 |
+
{
|
| 74 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 75 |
+
"execution_count": 7,
|
| 76 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 77 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 78 |
+
"source": [
|
| 79 |
+
"trades_grouped = trades.groupby(['title', 'winning_trade']).size().unstack().fillna(0)"
|
| 80 |
+
]
|
| 81 |
+
},
|
| 82 |
+
{
|
| 83 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 84 |
+
"execution_count": 8,
|
| 85 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 86 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 87 |
+
"source": [
|
| 88 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage = trades_grouped[True] / trades_grouped.sum(axis=1)\n",
|
| 89 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage = winning_trades_percentage.reset_index()\n",
|
| 90 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage.columns = ['title', 'winning_trade_percentage']\n",
|
| 91 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage['num_trades'] = list(trades_grouped.sum(axis=1).values)\n",
|
| 92 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50 = winning_trades_percentage.sort_values(by='winning_trade_percentage', ascending=False)[-50:].reset_index(drop=True)\n",
|
| 93 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage_top_50 = winning_trades_percentage.sort_values(by='winning_trade_percentage', ascending=False)[:50].reset_index(drop=True)"
|
| 94 |
+
]
|
| 95 |
+
},
|
| 96 |
+
{
|
| 97 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 98 |
+
"execution_count": 13,
|
| 99 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 100 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 101 |
+
"source": [
|
| 102 |
+
"# winning_trades_percentage.sort_values(by='winning_trade_percentage', ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True).to_csv('winning_trades_percentage.csv', index=False)"
|
| 103 |
+
]
|
| 104 |
+
},
|
| 105 |
+
{
|
| 106 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 107 |
+
"execution_count": 18,
|
| 108 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 109 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 110 |
+
{
|
| 111 |
+
"data": {
|
| 112 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 113 |
+
"['Will Kylian Mbappe leave Paris St-Germain at the end of the season by 16 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 114 |
+
" 'Will BlizzCon be reinstated on or by 1 May 2024 after its cancellation in 2024?',\n",
|
| 115 |
+
" 'Will Joe Biden approve more weapons for Ukraine by 4 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 116 |
+
" \"Will FiiO's new custom in-ear monitors become the top-selling wireless earbuds by 9 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 117 |
+
" 'Will Mohamed Salah leave Liverpool on 7 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 118 |
+
" \"Will Ryan Gosling accept a 'dark' role in a film by 14 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 119 |
+
" 'Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA play-offs on 7 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 120 |
+
" 'Will the Panamanian presidential election result in a clear victor by 12 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 121 |
+
" 'Will the Museum of Old and New Art in Tasmania be allowed to keep its exhibit women-only by 14 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 122 |
+
" \"Will Diego Maradona's 'Stolen' Golden Ball be auctioned off on 14 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 123 |
+
" 'Will the Mercedes G-Wagen release an electric version on 1 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 124 |
+
" 'Will the Israeli government lift the broadcast ban on Al Jazeera on or before 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 125 |
+
" 'Will Intel release its Core Ultra 200 Arrow Lake CPUs by 16 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 126 |
+
" 'Will the Atlanta City Council pay $3.8 million to settle a lawsuit by the family of a church deacon who died in a struggle with a city police officer by 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 127 |
+
" 'Will Voyager-1 continue to send readable data until 1 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 128 |
+
" 'Will the Amber Alert issued in New Mexico result in the discovery of the missing 10-month-old baby by 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 129 |
+
" \"Will Florida's ban on lab-grown meat be overturned by 12 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 130 |
+
" \"Will the US government successfully distribute the $138.7 million payout to Larry Nassar's victims by 1 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 131 |
+
" 'Will a new sport be officially added to the Olympics programme on 16 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 132 |
+
" \"Will Kristi Noem be announced as Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate by 6 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 133 |
+
" 'Will the United Auto Workers union strike against Daimler Truck on or by 7 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 134 |
+
" 'Will the World Snooker Championship 2024 conclude with Judd Trump or Tom Ford as the winner by May 5, 2024?',\n",
|
| 135 |
+
" \"Will Maria Georgas be announced as the next 'Bachelorette' lead on 9 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 136 |
+
" 'Will Apple release new iPads at their event on May 7, 2024?',\n",
|
| 137 |
+
" 'Will Joe Biden still be the President of the United States on 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 138 |
+
" \"Will the world's biggest 3D printer be used to make parts of houses by 2 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 139 |
+
" \"Will Anthony Edwards be named NBA's MVP on 11 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 140 |
+
" 'Will a winner be declared in the Eurovision 2024 grand final by 19 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 141 |
+
" \"Will a new mission be launched to explore the moon's 'hidden side' by 12 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 142 |
+
" 'Will Mike Tyson win his bout against Jake Paul on 7 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 143 |
+
" 'Will the bird flu outbreak be declared a global pandemic by 12 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 144 |
+
" 'Will the new Apple Pencil Pro be revealed by 15 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 145 |
+
" \"Will the amateur angler who landed UK's 'biggest fish' in Essex catch another record-breaking fish by 7 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 146 |
+
" \"Will Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez successfully defend his WBA, WBC, WBO, and IBF titles again by 13 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 147 |
+
" \"Will Taylor Swift's 'The Tortured Poets Department' album reach number 1 on Billboard 200 on 3 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 148 |
+
" 'Will Joe Biden attend the White House Correspondents Dinner on 5 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 149 |
+
" 'Will King Charles perform public duties on 5 May 2024, after his progress in cancer treatment?',\n",
|
| 150 |
+
" \"Will LinkedIn's new puzzle games Pinpoint, Queens, and Crossclimb be successful on their platform by 9 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 151 |
+
" 'Will South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem resign over the puppy killing controversy by 15 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 152 |
+
" 'Will Apple announce the release of a new M4 chip by 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 153 |
+
" 'Will Eric Adams still be the mayor of New York City on 10 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 154 |
+
" \"Will the livestream video 'portals' connecting New York City and Dublin still be operational on 19 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 155 |
+
" 'Will there be more pro-Palestinian protests on US university campuses on 6 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 156 |
+
" 'Will Google Pixel 8a be released at Google I/O 2024 on 14 May?',\n",
|
| 157 |
+
" 'Will Apple announce more than just a spec bump at the May 2024 iPad event?',\n",
|
| 158 |
+
" \"Will Apple's new Magic Keyboard for the iPad Pro M4 be released by 15 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 159 |
+
" 'Will the UEFA Champions League final be between PSG and Borussia Dortmund on 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 160 |
+
" 'Will the FBI report an increase in scams targeting Americans older than 60 in 2024?',\n",
|
| 161 |
+
" 'Will Erik ten Hag remain as Manchester United manager on 17 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 162 |
+
" 'Will Jofra Archer be a part of the England squad for T20 World Cup in June 2024?']"
|
| 163 |
+
]
|
| 164 |
+
},
|
| 165 |
+
"execution_count": 18,
|
| 166 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 167 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 168 |
+
}
|
| 169 |
+
],
|
| 170 |
+
"source": [
|
| 171 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage_top_50['title'].tolist()\n",
|
| 172 |
+
"\n"
|
| 173 |
+
]
|
| 174 |
+
},
|
| 175 |
+
{
|
| 176 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 177 |
+
"execution_count": 17,
|
| 178 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 179 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 180 |
+
{
|
| 181 |
+
"data": {
|
| 182 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 183 |
+
"[\"Will 'Scavengers Reign' be renewed for a second season on Netflix by 19 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 184 |
+
" 'Will Fiona Harvey officially file a lawsuit against Netflix and Richard Gadd by 17 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 185 |
+
" 'Will the final report on the Baltimore bridge collapse be released by 20 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 186 |
+
" 'Will the Autonomous Racing League successfully hold their second race by May 3, 2024?',\n",
|
| 187 |
+
" 'Will Trent Staggs win the Senatorial race to replace Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) on 5 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 188 |
+
" 'Will the Houston area experience flooding conditions on 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 189 |
+
" \"Will 'Wednesday' season 2 be released on Netflix by 1 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 190 |
+
" 'Will Arsenal win against Bournemouth in the Premier League match on 12 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 191 |
+
" 'Will Qualcomm release its Snapdragon X Plus laptop chip by 1 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 192 |
+
" \"Will Feyenoord's Arne Slot become the new manager of Liverpool by 1 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 193 |
+
" 'Will the FCC receive additional funding for replacing Huawei gear by 10 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 194 |
+
" 'Will there be any major cyber attack on an organization using AI before 2 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 195 |
+
" 'Will Sony complete the takeover of Paramount by 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 196 |
+
" \"Will 'Hell's Kitchen' win the Tony Awards for Best Musical on 7 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 197 |
+
" 'Will Tesla announce reinstating any laid off supercharger workers by 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 198 |
+
" 'Will there be another tornado in Nebraska and Iowa on 6 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 199 |
+
" 'Will the DJI drones be officially banned in the United States by 4 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 200 |
+
" 'Will OpenAI debut a multimodal AI digital assistant by 19 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 201 |
+
" 'Will TikTok be purchased by a Wall Street or Tech billionaire by 2 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 202 |
+
" \"Will the 'Lost' Gustav Klimt painting be sold at the auction in Vienna on 3 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 203 |
+
" \"Will the Federal Communications Commission levy fines against AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, and Verizon for illegally sharing customers' location data by 9 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 204 |
+
" 'Will the Manchester City win the WSL title on 14 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 205 |
+
" 'Will Meta start making profit from generative AI by 3 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 206 |
+
" 'Will Apple launch an AI-powered iOS 18 on or by 1 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 207 |
+
" 'Will iOS 18 receive a major AI overhaul by 6 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 208 |
+
" 'Will Ippei Mizuhara be sentenced for bank fraud by 15 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 209 |
+
" 'Will Tesla lay off nearly 2,700 workers at its Austin, Texas factory by 1 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 210 |
+
" 'Will Manchester City win the Premier League title on 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 211 |
+
" 'Will there be another deadly pandemic by 8 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 212 |
+
" 'Will China successfully collect samples from the far side of the Moon on 10 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 213 |
+
" \"Will the American Airlines correct their system's error of mistaking 101-year-old passenger for a baby by 7 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 214 |
+
" 'Will the Boeing Starliner capsule successfully complete its first astronaut-crewed flight to the International Space Station by 13 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 215 |
+
" \"Will the Technics' special-edition turntable in collaboration with Lamborghini be released by 17 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 216 |
+
" 'Will the Florida Panthers win against the Boston Bruins in the Game 3 on 17 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 217 |
+
" 'Will Harvard Yard be free from Anti-Israel protests by 2 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 218 |
+
" \"Will Samsung's latest jibe have any impact on Apple's sales by 11 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 219 |
+
" \"Will the Miss USA organization respond to the call for 'full transparency' from contestants by 16 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 220 |
+
" 'Will Tom Daley win a medal at the Paris Olympics 2024 by 14 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 221 |
+
" \"Will Liverpool win any more trophies in Jurgen Klopp's final season?\",\n",
|
| 222 |
+
" 'Will Liverpool win any more trophies by 2 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 223 |
+
" 'Will Caitlin Clark score more than 20 points in her next NBA game by 10 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 224 |
+
" 'Will the statues of civil rights leader Daisy Bates and singer Johnny Cash replace the Arkansas statues at the U.S Capitol by 14 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 225 |
+
" \"Will the season 6 of Netflix's Cobra Kai be released in 3 parts by 12 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 226 |
+
" \"Will the 'Don't Say Gay' education restrictions bill be implemented in Alabama on or before 1 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 227 |
+
" \"Will the 'lost' Gustav Klimt painting be successfully auctioned by 3 May 2024?\",\n",
|
| 228 |
+
" 'Will the Kansas City Chiefs win their next game on or before May 15, 2024?',\n",
|
| 229 |
+
" 'Will Lando Norris win another F1 race by 15 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 230 |
+
" 'Will Pennsylvania be a red state by 6 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 231 |
+
" 'Will Tesla face significant financial troubles by 11 May 2024?',\n",
|
| 232 |
+
" 'Will the BattlerGC Pro be released for the GameCube on or by 3 May 2024?']"
|
| 233 |
+
]
|
| 234 |
+
},
|
| 235 |
+
"execution_count": 17,
|
| 236 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 237 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 238 |
+
}
|
| 239 |
+
],
|
| 240 |
+
"source": [
|
| 241 |
+
"winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50['title'].tolist()"
|
| 242 |
+
]
|
| 243 |
+
},
|
| 244 |
+
{
|
| 245 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 246 |
+
"execution_count": 62,
|
| 247 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 248 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 249 |
+
"source": [
|
| 250 |
+
"def losing_percentage(q):\n",
|
| 251 |
+
" print(f\"Losing percentage for: {q}\")\n",
|
| 252 |
+
" q_losing = tools[tools['prompt_request'].str.contains(q)].groupby(['tool', 'winning_vote']).size().unstack().fillna(0)\n",
|
| 253 |
+
" q_losing_perc = q_losing[False] / (q_losing[False] + q_losing[True])\n",
|
| 254 |
+
" q_losing_perc = q_losing_perc.reset_index()\n",
|
| 255 |
+
" q_losing_perc.columns = ['tool', 'losing_percentage']\n",
|
| 256 |
+
" q_losing_perc['num_calls'] = list(q_losing.sum(axis=1).values)\n",
|
| 257 |
+
" q_losing_perc = q_losing_perc.sort_values(by='losing_percentage', ascending=False)\n",
|
| 258 |
+
" return q_losing_perc"
|
| 259 |
+
]
|
| 260 |
+
},
|
| 261 |
+
{
|
| 262 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 263 |
+
"execution_count": 63,
|
| 264 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 265 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 266 |
+
{
|
| 267 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 268 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 269 |
+
"text": [
|
| 270 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will 'Scavengers Reign' be renewed for a second season on Netflix by 19 May 2024?\n"
|
| 271 |
+
]
|
| 272 |
+
},
|
| 273 |
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{
|
| 274 |
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"data": {
|
| 275 |
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|
| 291 |
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|
| 292 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 293 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 294 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 295 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 296 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 297 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 298 |
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|
| 299 |
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" <tbody>\n",
|
| 300 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 301 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 302 |
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" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 303 |
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" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 304 |
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" <td>40.0</td>\n",
|
| 305 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 306 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 307 |
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" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 308 |
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" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 309 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 310 |
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" <td>17.0</td>\n",
|
| 311 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 312 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 313 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 314 |
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" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 315 |
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" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 316 |
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" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 317 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 318 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 319 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 320 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 321 |
+
" <td>0.656716</td>\n",
|
| 322 |
+
" <td>67.0</td>\n",
|
| 323 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 324 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 325 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 326 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 327 |
+
" <td>0.571429</td>\n",
|
| 328 |
+
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
|
| 329 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 330 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 331 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 332 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 333 |
+
" <td>0.538462</td>\n",
|
| 334 |
+
" <td>52.0</td>\n",
|
| 335 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 336 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 337 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 338 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 339 |
+
" <td>0.250000</td>\n",
|
| 340 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 341 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 342 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 343 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 344 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 345 |
+
" <td>0.185185</td>\n",
|
| 346 |
+
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
|
| 347 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 348 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 349 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 350 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 351 |
+
],
|
| 352 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 353 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 354 |
+
"0 prediction-offline 1.000000 40.0\n",
|
| 355 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.000000 17.0\n",
|
| 356 |
+
"7 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 357 |
+
"2 prediction-online-sme 0.656716 67.0\n",
|
| 358 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.571429 7.0\n",
|
| 359 |
+
"5 prediction-request-reasoning 0.538462 52.0\n",
|
| 360 |
+
"3 prediction-request-rag 0.250000 4.0\n",
|
| 361 |
+
"1 prediction-online 0.185185 27.0"
|
| 362 |
+
]
|
| 363 |
+
},
|
| 364 |
+
"execution_count": 63,
|
| 365 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 366 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 367 |
+
}
|
| 368 |
+
],
|
| 369 |
+
"source": [
|
| 370 |
+
"# have confirmed market resolution was correct\n",
|
| 371 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[0, 'title'])"
|
| 372 |
+
]
|
| 373 |
+
},
|
| 374 |
+
{
|
| 375 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 376 |
+
"execution_count": 64,
|
| 377 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 378 |
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"outputs": [
|
| 379 |
+
{
|
| 380 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 381 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 382 |
+
"text": [
|
| 383 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will 'Scavengers Reign' be renewed for a second season on Netflix by 19 May 2024?\n"
|
| 384 |
+
]
|
| 385 |
+
},
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| 387 |
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|
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|
| 406 |
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" <th></th>\n",
|
| 407 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 408 |
+
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|
| 409 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 410 |
+
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|
| 411 |
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|
| 412 |
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|
| 413 |
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|
| 414 |
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" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 415 |
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|
| 416 |
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|
| 417 |
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|
| 418 |
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|
| 419 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 420 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 421 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 422 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 423 |
+
" <td>17.0</td>\n",
|
| 424 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 425 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 426 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 427 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 428 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 429 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 430 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 431 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 432 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 433 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 434 |
+
" <td>0.656716</td>\n",
|
| 435 |
+
" <td>67.0</td>\n",
|
| 436 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 437 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 438 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 439 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 440 |
+
" <td>0.571429</td>\n",
|
| 441 |
+
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
|
| 442 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 443 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 444 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 445 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 446 |
+
" <td>0.538462</td>\n",
|
| 447 |
+
" <td>52.0</td>\n",
|
| 448 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 449 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 450 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 451 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 452 |
+
" <td>0.250000</td>\n",
|
| 453 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 454 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 455 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 456 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 457 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 458 |
+
" <td>0.185185</td>\n",
|
| 459 |
+
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
|
| 460 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 461 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 462 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 463 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 464 |
+
],
|
| 465 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 466 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 467 |
+
"0 prediction-offline 1.000000 40.0\n",
|
| 468 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.000000 17.0\n",
|
| 469 |
+
"7 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 470 |
+
"2 prediction-online-sme 0.656716 67.0\n",
|
| 471 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.571429 7.0\n",
|
| 472 |
+
"5 prediction-request-reasoning 0.538462 52.0\n",
|
| 473 |
+
"3 prediction-request-rag 0.250000 4.0\n",
|
| 474 |
+
"1 prediction-online 0.185185 27.0"
|
| 475 |
+
]
|
| 476 |
+
},
|
| 477 |
+
"execution_count": 64,
|
| 478 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 479 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 480 |
+
}
|
| 481 |
+
],
|
| 482 |
+
"source": [
|
| 483 |
+
"# have confirmed currentAnswer\n",
|
| 484 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[0, 'title'])"
|
| 485 |
+
]
|
| 486 |
+
},
|
| 487 |
+
{
|
| 488 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 489 |
+
"execution_count": 65,
|
| 490 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 491 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 492 |
+
{
|
| 493 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 494 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 495 |
+
"text": [
|
| 496 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will Fiona Harvey officially file a lawsuit against Netflix and Richard Gadd by 17 May 2024?\n"
|
| 497 |
+
]
|
| 498 |
+
},
|
| 499 |
+
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|
| 500 |
+
"data": {
|
| 501 |
+
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|
| 502 |
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
| 515 |
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|
| 516 |
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|
| 517 |
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|
| 518 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 519 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 520 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 521 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 522 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 523 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 524 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 525 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 526 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 527 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 528 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 529 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 530 |
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" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 531 |
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|
| 532 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 533 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 534 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 535 |
+
" <td>0.977273</td>\n",
|
| 536 |
+
" <td>44.0</td>\n",
|
| 537 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 538 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 539 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 540 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 541 |
+
" <td>0.975000</td>\n",
|
| 542 |
+
" <td>40.0</td>\n",
|
| 543 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 544 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 545 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 546 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 547 |
+
" <td>0.677419</td>\n",
|
| 548 |
+
" <td>31.0</td>\n",
|
| 549 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 550 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 551 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 552 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 553 |
+
" <td>0.534483</td>\n",
|
| 554 |
+
" <td>58.0</td>\n",
|
| 555 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 556 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 557 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 558 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 559 |
+
" <td>0.223881</td>\n",
|
| 560 |
+
" <td>67.0</td>\n",
|
| 561 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 562 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 563 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 564 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 565 |
+
" <td>0.200000</td>\n",
|
| 566 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 567 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 568 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 569 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 570 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 571 |
+
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
|
| 572 |
+
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
|
| 573 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 574 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 575 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 576 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 577 |
+
],
|
| 578 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 579 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 580 |
+
"7 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 1.0\n",
|
| 581 |
+
"2 prediction-online-sme 0.977273 44.0\n",
|
| 582 |
+
"1 prediction-online 0.975000 40.0\n",
|
| 583 |
+
"0 prediction-offline 0.677419 31.0\n",
|
| 584 |
+
"5 prediction-request-reasoning 0.534483 58.0\n",
|
| 585 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag-claude 0.223881 67.0\n",
|
| 586 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.200000 5.0\n",
|
| 587 |
+
"3 prediction-request-rag 0.000000 8.0"
|
| 588 |
+
]
|
| 589 |
+
},
|
| 590 |
+
"execution_count": 65,
|
| 591 |
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"metadata": {},
|
| 592 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 593 |
+
}
|
| 594 |
+
],
|
| 595 |
+
"source": [
|
| 596 |
+
"# have confirmed currentAnswer\n",
|
| 597 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[1, 'title'])"
|
| 598 |
+
]
|
| 599 |
+
},
|
| 600 |
+
{
|
| 601 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 602 |
+
"execution_count": 66,
|
| 603 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 604 |
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"outputs": [
|
| 605 |
+
{
|
| 606 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 607 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 608 |
+
"text": [
|
| 609 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will the final report on the Baltimore bridge collapse be released by 20 May 2024?\n"
|
| 610 |
+
]
|
| 611 |
+
},
|
| 612 |
+
{
|
| 613 |
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"data": {
|
| 614 |
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|
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|
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|
| 630 |
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|
| 631 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 632 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 633 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 634 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 635 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 636 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 637 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 638 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 639 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 640 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 641 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 642 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 643 |
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" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 644 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 645 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 646 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 647 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 648 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 649 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 650 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 651 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 652 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 653 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 654 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 655 |
+
" <td>87.0</td>\n",
|
| 656 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 657 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 658 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 659 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 660 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 661 |
+
" <td>25.0</td>\n",
|
| 662 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 663 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 664 |
+
" <th>9</th>\n",
|
| 665 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 666 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 667 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 668 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 669 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 670 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 671 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 672 |
+
" <td>0.951220</td>\n",
|
| 673 |
+
" <td>41.0</td>\n",
|
| 674 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 675 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 676 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 677 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 678 |
+
" <td>0.833333</td>\n",
|
| 679 |
+
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 680 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 681 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 682 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 683 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 684 |
+
" <td>0.714286</td>\n",
|
| 685 |
+
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
|
| 686 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 687 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 688 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 689 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 690 |
+
" <td>0.437500</td>\n",
|
| 691 |
+
" <td>48.0</td>\n",
|
| 692 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 693 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 694 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 695 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 696 |
+
" <td>0.394366</td>\n",
|
| 697 |
+
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
|
| 698 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 699 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 700 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 701 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 702 |
+
],
|
| 703 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 704 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 705 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.000000 5.0\n",
|
| 706 |
+
"1 claude-prediction-online 1.000000 1.0\n",
|
| 707 |
+
"2 prediction-offline 1.000000 87.0\n",
|
| 708 |
+
"6 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.000000 25.0\n",
|
| 709 |
+
"9 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 1.0\n",
|
| 710 |
+
"3 prediction-online 0.951220 41.0\n",
|
| 711 |
+
"8 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.833333 6.0\n",
|
| 712 |
+
"5 prediction-request-rag 0.714286 7.0\n",
|
| 713 |
+
"7 prediction-request-reasoning 0.437500 48.0\n",
|
| 714 |
+
"4 prediction-online-sme 0.394366 71.0"
|
| 715 |
+
]
|
| 716 |
+
},
|
| 717 |
+
"execution_count": 66,
|
| 718 |
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|
| 719 |
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|
| 720 |
+
}
|
| 721 |
+
],
|
| 722 |
+
"source": [
|
| 723 |
+
"# have confirmed currentAnswer\n",
|
| 724 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[2, 'title'])"
|
| 725 |
+
]
|
| 726 |
+
},
|
| 727 |
+
{
|
| 728 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 729 |
+
"execution_count": 67,
|
| 730 |
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"metadata": {},
|
| 731 |
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|
| 732 |
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{
|
| 733 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 734 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 735 |
+
"text": [
|
| 736 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will the Autonomous Racing League successfully hold their second race by May 3, 2024?\n"
|
| 737 |
+
]
|
| 738 |
+
},
|
| 739 |
+
{
|
| 740 |
+
"data": {
|
| 741 |
+
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| 742 |
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|
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|
| 750 |
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|
| 751 |
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|
| 752 |
+
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|
| 753 |
+
" text-align: right;\n",
|
| 754 |
+
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|
| 755 |
+
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|
| 756 |
+
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|
| 757 |
+
" <thead>\n",
|
| 758 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 759 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 760 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 761 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 762 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 763 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 764 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 765 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 766 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 767 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 768 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 769 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 770 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 771 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 772 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 773 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 774 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 775 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 776 |
+
" <td>23.0</td>\n",
|
| 777 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 778 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 779 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 780 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 781 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 782 |
+
" <td>14.0</td>\n",
|
| 783 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 784 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 785 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 786 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 787 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 788 |
+
" <td>18.0</td>\n",
|
| 789 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 790 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 791 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 792 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 793 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 794 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 795 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 796 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 797 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 798 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 799 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 800 |
+
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
|
| 801 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 802 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 803 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 804 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 805 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 806 |
+
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 807 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 808 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 809 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 810 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 811 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 812 |
+
" <td>18.0</td>\n",
|
| 813 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 814 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 815 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 816 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 817 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 818 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 819 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 820 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 821 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 822 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 823 |
+
],
|
| 824 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 825 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 826 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.0 2.0\n",
|
| 827 |
+
"1 prediction-offline 1.0 23.0\n",
|
| 828 |
+
"2 prediction-online 1.0 14.0\n",
|
| 829 |
+
"3 prediction-online-sme 1.0 18.0\n",
|
| 830 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag 1.0 5.0\n",
|
| 831 |
+
"5 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.0 8.0\n",
|
| 832 |
+
"8 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.0 6.0\n",
|
| 833 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning 0.0 18.0\n",
|
| 834 |
+
"7 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.0 3.0"
|
| 835 |
+
]
|
| 836 |
+
},
|
| 837 |
+
"execution_count": 67,
|
| 838 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 839 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 840 |
+
}
|
| 841 |
+
],
|
| 842 |
+
"source": [
|
| 843 |
+
"# have confirmed currentAnswer\n",
|
| 844 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[3, 'title'])"
|
| 845 |
+
]
|
| 846 |
+
},
|
| 847 |
+
{
|
| 848 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 849 |
+
"execution_count": 72,
|
| 850 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 851 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 852 |
+
{
|
| 853 |
+
"name": "stdout",
|
| 854 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 855 |
+
"text": [
|
| 856 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will the Houston area experience flooding conditions on 11 May 2024?\n"
|
| 857 |
+
]
|
| 858 |
+
},
|
| 859 |
+
{
|
| 860 |
+
"data": {
|
| 861 |
+
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|
| 862 |
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|
| 863 |
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|
| 864 |
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|
| 865 |
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|
| 866 |
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|
| 867 |
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|
| 868 |
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|
| 869 |
+
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|
| 870 |
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" }\n",
|
| 871 |
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"\n",
|
| 872 |
+
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
|
| 873 |
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|
| 874 |
+
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|
| 875 |
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|
| 876 |
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|
| 877 |
+
" <thead>\n",
|
| 878 |
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" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 879 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 880 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 881 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 882 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 883 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 884 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 885 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 886 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 887 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 888 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 889 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 890 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 891 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 892 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 893 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 894 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 895 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 896 |
+
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 897 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 898 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 899 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 900 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 901 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 902 |
+
" <td>58.0</td>\n",
|
| 903 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 904 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 905 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 906 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 907 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 908 |
+
" <td>39.0</td>\n",
|
| 909 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 910 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 911 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 912 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 913 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 914 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 915 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 916 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 917 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 918 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 919 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 920 |
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" <td>8.0</td>\n",
|
| 921 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 922 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 923 |
+
" <th>9</th>\n",
|
| 924 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 925 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 926 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 927 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 928 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 929 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 930 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 931 |
+
" <td>0.754717</td>\n",
|
| 932 |
+
" <td>53.0</td>\n",
|
| 933 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 934 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 935 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 936 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 937 |
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" <td>0.369048</td>\n",
|
| 938 |
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" <td>84.0</td>\n",
|
| 939 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 940 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 941 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 942 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 943 |
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" <td>0.166667</td>\n",
|
| 944 |
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" <td>72.0</td>\n",
|
| 945 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 946 |
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" </tbody>\n",
|
| 947 |
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"</table>\n",
|
| 948 |
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"</div>"
|
| 949 |
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],
|
| 950 |
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"text/plain": [
|
| 951 |
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" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 952 |
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"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 953 |
+
"1 claude-prediction-online 1.000000 6.0\n",
|
| 954 |
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"2 prediction-offline 1.000000 58.0\n",
|
| 955 |
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"4 prediction-online-sme 1.000000 39.0\n",
|
| 956 |
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"5 prediction-request-rag 1.000000 4.0\n",
|
| 957 |
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"8 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 1.000000 8.0\n",
|
| 958 |
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"9 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 5.0\n",
|
| 959 |
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"6 prediction-request-rag-claude 0.754717 53.0\n",
|
| 960 |
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"7 prediction-request-reasoning 0.369048 84.0\n",
|
| 961 |
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"3 prediction-online 0.166667 72.0"
|
| 962 |
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|
| 963 |
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|
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| 982 |
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"Losing percentage for: Will 'Wednesday' season 2 be released on Netflix by 1 May 2024?\n"
|
| 983 |
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| 1004 |
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|
| 1005 |
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|
| 1006 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1007 |
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|
| 1008 |
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|
| 1009 |
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|
| 1010 |
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|
| 1011 |
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|
| 1012 |
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|
| 1013 |
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|
| 1014 |
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|
| 1017 |
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|
| 1018 |
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|
| 1019 |
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|
| 1020 |
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|
| 1021 |
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|
| 1022 |
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|
| 1023 |
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|
| 1024 |
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|
| 1025 |
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|
| 1026 |
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|
| 1027 |
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|
| 1028 |
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" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 1029 |
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|
| 1030 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 1031 |
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" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1032 |
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" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1033 |
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" <td>0.500000</td>\n",
|
| 1034 |
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" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1035 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 1036 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 1037 |
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" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1038 |
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" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1039 |
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" <td>0.400000</td>\n",
|
| 1040 |
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" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 1041 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 1042 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 1043 |
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" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 1044 |
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" <td>claude-prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1045 |
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" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1046 |
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" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1047 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 1048 |
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" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1049 |
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"</table>\n",
|
| 1050 |
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"</div>"
|
| 1051 |
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],
|
| 1052 |
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"text/plain": [
|
| 1053 |
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" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1054 |
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"1 prediction-online-sme 0.750000 4.0\n",
|
| 1055 |
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"5 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.750000 4.0\n",
|
| 1056 |
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"2 prediction-request-rag 0.666667 6.0\n",
|
| 1057 |
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"3 prediction-request-rag-claude 0.500000 2.0\n",
|
| 1058 |
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"4 prediction-request-reasoning 0.400000 5.0\n",
|
| 1059 |
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"0 claude-prediction-online 0.000000 1.0"
|
| 1060 |
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|
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|
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|
| 1080 |
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"Losing percentage for: Will Arsenal win against Bournemouth in the Premier League match on 12 May 2024?\n"
|
| 1081 |
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]
|
| 1082 |
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|
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| 1102 |
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|
| 1103 |
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|
| 1104 |
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|
| 1105 |
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|
| 1106 |
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|
| 1107 |
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|
| 1108 |
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|
| 1109 |
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|
| 1110 |
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|
| 1111 |
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|
| 1112 |
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|
| 1113 |
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|
| 1114 |
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|
| 1115 |
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|
| 1116 |
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|
| 1117 |
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" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 1118 |
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" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1119 |
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|
| 1120 |
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|
| 1121 |
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" </tr>\n",
|
| 1122 |
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|
| 1123 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 1124 |
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" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1125 |
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" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1126 |
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" <td>30.0</td>\n",
|
| 1127 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1128 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1129 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1130 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1131 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1132 |
+
" <td>45.0</td>\n",
|
| 1133 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1134 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1135 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 1136 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1137 |
+
" <td>0.874016</td>\n",
|
| 1138 |
+
" <td>127.0</td>\n",
|
| 1139 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1140 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1141 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1142 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 1143 |
+
" <td>0.250000</td>\n",
|
| 1144 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1145 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1146 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1147 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 1148 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1149 |
+
" <td>0.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1150 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1151 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1152 |
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" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1153 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1154 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1155 |
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],
|
| 1156 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 1157 |
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" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1158 |
+
"0 prediction-offline 1.000000 11.0\n",
|
| 1159 |
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"1 prediction-online 1.000000 17.0\n",
|
| 1160 |
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"2 prediction-online-sme 1.000000 30.0\n",
|
| 1161 |
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|
| 1162 |
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|
| 1163 |
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"3 prediction-request-rag 0.250000 4.0\n",
|
| 1164 |
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"6 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.000000 2.0"
|
| 1165 |
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]
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| 1166 |
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|
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|
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|
| 1173 |
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"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[7, 'title'])"
|
| 1174 |
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|
| 1175 |
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|
| 1176 |
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{
|
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| 1178 |
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| 1179 |
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|
| 1180 |
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|
| 1181 |
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|
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"name": "stdout",
|
| 1183 |
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"output_type": "stream",
|
| 1184 |
+
"text": [
|
| 1185 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will Qualcomm release its Snapdragon X Plus laptop chip by 1 May 2024?\n"
|
| 1186 |
+
]
|
| 1187 |
+
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|
| 1188 |
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| 1199 |
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| 1200 |
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| 1201 |
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| 1202 |
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|
| 1203 |
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| 1204 |
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| 1205 |
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| 1206 |
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|
| 1207 |
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|
| 1208 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1209 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1210 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 1211 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 1212 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1213 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 1214 |
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|
| 1215 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1216 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 1217 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1218 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1219 |
+
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
|
| 1220 |
+
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|
| 1221 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1222 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 1223 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1224 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1225 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1226 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1227 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1228 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1229 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1230 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1231 |
+
" <td>19.0</td>\n",
|
| 1232 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1233 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1234 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 1235 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1236 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1237 |
+
" <td>15.0</td>\n",
|
| 1238 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1239 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1240 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1241 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 1242 |
+
" <td>0.941176</td>\n",
|
| 1243 |
+
" <td>17.0</td>\n",
|
| 1244 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1245 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1246 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 1247 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1248 |
+
" <td>0.800000</td>\n",
|
| 1249 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 1250 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1251 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1252 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 1253 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1254 |
+
" <td>0.666667</td>\n",
|
| 1255 |
+
" <td>15.0</td>\n",
|
| 1256 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1257 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1258 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 1259 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1260 |
+
" <td>0.652174</td>\n",
|
| 1261 |
+
" <td>23.0</td>\n",
|
| 1262 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1263 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1264 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 1265 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1266 |
+
" <td>0.333333</td>\n",
|
| 1267 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1268 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1269 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1270 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1271 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1272 |
+
],
|
| 1273 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 1274 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1275 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.000000 7.0\n",
|
| 1276 |
+
"1 prediction-offline 1.000000 1.0\n",
|
| 1277 |
+
"3 prediction-online-sme 1.000000 19.0\n",
|
| 1278 |
+
"5 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.000000 15.0\n",
|
| 1279 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag 0.941176 17.0\n",
|
| 1280 |
+
"2 prediction-online 0.800000 5.0\n",
|
| 1281 |
+
"7 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.666667 15.0\n",
|
| 1282 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning 0.652174 23.0\n",
|
| 1283 |
+
"8 prediction-url-cot-claude 0.333333 3.0"
|
| 1284 |
+
]
|
| 1285 |
+
},
|
| 1286 |
+
"execution_count": 75,
|
| 1287 |
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"metadata": {},
|
| 1288 |
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"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 1289 |
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}
|
| 1290 |
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],
|
| 1291 |
+
"source": [
|
| 1292 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[8, 'title'])"
|
| 1293 |
+
]
|
| 1294 |
+
},
|
| 1295 |
+
{
|
| 1296 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 1297 |
+
"execution_count": 76,
|
| 1298 |
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"metadata": {},
|
| 1299 |
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"outputs": [
|
| 1300 |
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{
|
| 1301 |
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"name": "stdout",
|
| 1302 |
+
"output_type": "stream",
|
| 1303 |
+
"text": [
|
| 1304 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will Feyenoord's Arne Slot become the new manager of Liverpool by 1 May 2024?\n"
|
| 1305 |
+
]
|
| 1306 |
+
},
|
| 1307 |
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|
| 1308 |
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"data": {
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|
| 1325 |
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|
| 1326 |
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" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 1327 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1328 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1329 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 1330 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 1331 |
+
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|
| 1332 |
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" </thead>\n",
|
| 1333 |
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|
| 1334 |
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" <tr>\n",
|
| 1335 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 1336 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1337 |
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" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1338 |
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" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1339 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1340 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1341 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 1342 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1343 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1344 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1345 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1346 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1347 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 1348 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1349 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1350 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1351 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1352 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1353 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 1354 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1355 |
+
" <td>0.916667</td>\n",
|
| 1356 |
+
" <td>12.0</td>\n",
|
| 1357 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1358 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1359 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 1360 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1361 |
+
" <td>0.900000</td>\n",
|
| 1362 |
+
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
|
| 1363 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1364 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1365 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1366 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 1367 |
+
" <td>0.714286</td>\n",
|
| 1368 |
+
" <td>14.0</td>\n",
|
| 1369 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1370 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1371 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1372 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1373 |
+
" <td>0.666667</td>\n",
|
| 1374 |
+
" <td>9.0</td>\n",
|
| 1375 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1376 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1377 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 1378 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1379 |
+
" <td>0.500000</td>\n",
|
| 1380 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1381 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1382 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1383 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 1384 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1385 |
+
" <td>0.454545</td>\n",
|
| 1386 |
+
" <td>11.0</td>\n",
|
| 1387 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1388 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1389 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1390 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1391 |
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],
|
| 1392 |
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|
| 1393 |
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" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1394 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.000000 4.0\n",
|
| 1395 |
+
"1 prediction-offline 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 1396 |
+
"8 prediction-url-cot-claude 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 1397 |
+
"6 prediction-request-reasoning 0.916667 12.0\n",
|
| 1398 |
+
"7 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.900000 10.0\n",
|
| 1399 |
+
"4 prediction-request-rag 0.714286 14.0\n",
|
| 1400 |
+
"3 prediction-online-sme 0.666667 9.0\n",
|
| 1401 |
+
"2 prediction-online 0.500000 2.0\n",
|
| 1402 |
+
"5 prediction-request-rag-claude 0.454545 11.0"
|
| 1403 |
+
]
|
| 1404 |
+
},
|
| 1405 |
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|
| 1406 |
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|
| 1407 |
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|
| 1408 |
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|
| 1409 |
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|
| 1410 |
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|
| 1411 |
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"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[9, 'title'])"
|
| 1412 |
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|
| 1413 |
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|
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| 1416 |
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| 1417 |
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|
| 1418 |
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|
| 1419 |
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{
|
| 1420 |
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"name": "stdout",
|
| 1421 |
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"output_type": "stream",
|
| 1422 |
+
"text": [
|
| 1423 |
+
"Losing percentage for: Will the FCC receive additional funding for replacing Huawei gear by 10 May 2024?\n"
|
| 1424 |
+
]
|
| 1425 |
+
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|
| 1426 |
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|
| 1427 |
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| 1428 |
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|
| 1444 |
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|
| 1445 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 1446 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1447 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1448 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 1449 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 1450 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1451 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 1452 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 1453 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1454 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 1455 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1456 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1457 |
+
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 1458 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1459 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1460 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 1461 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1462 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1463 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1464 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1465 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1466 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 1467 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1468 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1469 |
+
" <td>36.0</td>\n",
|
| 1470 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1471 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1472 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 1473 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1474 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1475 |
+
" <td>50.0</td>\n",
|
| 1476 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1477 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1478 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1479 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1480 |
+
" <td>0.986486</td>\n",
|
| 1481 |
+
" <td>74.0</td>\n",
|
| 1482 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1483 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1484 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 1485 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 1486 |
+
" <td>0.947368</td>\n",
|
| 1487 |
+
" <td>19.0</td>\n",
|
| 1488 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1489 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1490 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1491 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1492 |
+
" <td>0.910714</td>\n",
|
| 1493 |
+
" <td>56.0</td>\n",
|
| 1494 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1495 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1496 |
+
" <th>9</th>\n",
|
| 1497 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1498 |
+
" <td>0.777778</td>\n",
|
| 1499 |
+
" <td>9.0</td>\n",
|
| 1500 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1501 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1502 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 1503 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1504 |
+
" <td>0.465753</td>\n",
|
| 1505 |
+
" <td>73.0</td>\n",
|
| 1506 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1507 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1508 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 1509 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1510 |
+
" <td>0.071429</td>\n",
|
| 1511 |
+
" <td>14.0</td>\n",
|
| 1512 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1513 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1514 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1515 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1516 |
+
],
|
| 1517 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 1518 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1519 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 1.000000 6.0\n",
|
| 1520 |
+
"1 claude-prediction-online 1.000000 3.0\n",
|
| 1521 |
+
"2 prediction-offline 1.000000 36.0\n",
|
| 1522 |
+
"6 prediction-request-rag-claude 1.000000 50.0\n",
|
| 1523 |
+
"4 prediction-online-sme 0.986486 74.0\n",
|
| 1524 |
+
"5 prediction-request-rag 0.947368 19.0\n",
|
| 1525 |
+
"3 prediction-online 0.910714 56.0\n",
|
| 1526 |
+
"9 prediction-url-cot-claude 0.777778 9.0\n",
|
| 1527 |
+
"7 prediction-request-reasoning 0.465753 73.0\n",
|
| 1528 |
+
"8 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.071429 14.0"
|
| 1529 |
+
]
|
| 1530 |
+
},
|
| 1531 |
+
"execution_count": 77,
|
| 1532 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 1533 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 1534 |
+
}
|
| 1535 |
+
],
|
| 1536 |
+
"source": [
|
| 1537 |
+
"losing_percentage(winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50.loc[10, 'title'])"
|
| 1538 |
+
]
|
| 1539 |
+
},
|
| 1540 |
+
{
|
| 1541 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 1542 |
+
"execution_count": 98,
|
| 1543 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 1544 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 1545 |
+
"source": [
|
| 1546 |
+
"all_q = winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50['title'].unique().tolist()\n",
|
| 1547 |
+
"q_losing = tools[tools['prompt_request'].isin(all_q)]\n",
|
| 1548 |
+
"q_losing = q_losing.groupby(['tool'])['winning_vote'].value_counts().unstack().fillna(0)\n",
|
| 1549 |
+
"q_losing_perc = q_losing[False] / (q_losing[False] + q_losing[True])\n",
|
| 1550 |
+
"q_losing_perc = q_losing_perc.reset_index()\n",
|
| 1551 |
+
"q_losing_perc.columns = ['tool', 'losing_percentage']\n",
|
| 1552 |
+
"q_losing_perc['num_calls'] = list(q_losing.sum(axis=1).values)\n",
|
| 1553 |
+
"q_losing_perc = q_losing_perc.sort_values(by='losing_percentage', ascending=False)"
|
| 1554 |
+
]
|
| 1555 |
+
},
|
| 1556 |
+
{
|
| 1557 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 1558 |
+
"execution_count": 99,
|
| 1559 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 1560 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 1561 |
+
{
|
| 1562 |
+
"data": {
|
| 1563 |
+
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| 1564 |
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|
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|
| 1577 |
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|
| 1578 |
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|
| 1579 |
+
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|
| 1580 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 1581 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1582 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1583 |
+
" <th>losing_percentage</th>\n",
|
| 1584 |
+
" <th>num_calls</th>\n",
|
| 1585 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1586 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 1587 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 1588 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1589 |
+
" <th>3</th>\n",
|
| 1590 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1591 |
+
" <td>1.000000</td>\n",
|
| 1592 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1593 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1594 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1595 |
+
" <th>7</th>\n",
|
| 1596 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1597 |
+
" <td>0.913007</td>\n",
|
| 1598 |
+
" <td>1184.0</td>\n",
|
| 1599 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1600 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1601 |
+
" <th>2</th>\n",
|
| 1602 |
+
" <td>prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1603 |
+
" <td>0.893281</td>\n",
|
| 1604 |
+
" <td>1012.0</td>\n",
|
| 1605 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1606 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1607 |
+
" <th>6</th>\n",
|
| 1608 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-rag</td>\n",
|
| 1609 |
+
" <td>0.889881</td>\n",
|
| 1610 |
+
" <td>336.0</td>\n",
|
| 1611 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1612 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1613 |
+
" <th>5</th>\n",
|
| 1614 |
+
" <td>prediction-online-sme</td>\n",
|
| 1615 |
+
" <td>0.857143</td>\n",
|
| 1616 |
+
" <td>1722.0</td>\n",
|
| 1617 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1618 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1619 |
+
" <th>4</th>\n",
|
| 1620 |
+
" <td>prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1621 |
+
" <td>0.853553</td>\n",
|
| 1622 |
+
" <td>1154.0</td>\n",
|
| 1623 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1624 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1625 |
+
" <th>8</th>\n",
|
| 1626 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
|
| 1627 |
+
" <td>0.847451</td>\n",
|
| 1628 |
+
" <td>2727.0</td>\n",
|
| 1629 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1630 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1631 |
+
" <th>10</th>\n",
|
| 1632 |
+
" <td>prediction-url-cot-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1633 |
+
" <td>0.846154</td>\n",
|
| 1634 |
+
" <td>130.0</td>\n",
|
| 1635 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1636 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1637 |
+
" <th>1</th>\n",
|
| 1638 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-online</td>\n",
|
| 1639 |
+
" <td>0.735849</td>\n",
|
| 1640 |
+
" <td>53.0</td>\n",
|
| 1641 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1642 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1643 |
+
" <th>9</th>\n",
|
| 1644 |
+
" <td>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</td>\n",
|
| 1645 |
+
" <td>0.659664</td>\n",
|
| 1646 |
+
" <td>238.0</td>\n",
|
| 1647 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1648 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1649 |
+
" <th>0</th>\n",
|
| 1650 |
+
" <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
|
| 1651 |
+
" <td>0.591549</td>\n",
|
| 1652 |
+
" <td>142.0</td>\n",
|
| 1653 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1654 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1655 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1656 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1657 |
+
],
|
| 1658 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 1659 |
+
" tool losing_percentage num_calls\n",
|
| 1660 |
+
"3 prediction-offline-sme 1.000000 2.0\n",
|
| 1661 |
+
"7 prediction-request-rag-claude 0.913007 1184.0\n",
|
| 1662 |
+
"2 prediction-offline 0.893281 1012.0\n",
|
| 1663 |
+
"6 prediction-request-rag 0.889881 336.0\n",
|
| 1664 |
+
"5 prediction-online-sme 0.857143 1722.0\n",
|
| 1665 |
+
"4 prediction-online 0.853553 1154.0\n",
|
| 1666 |
+
"8 prediction-request-reasoning 0.847451 2727.0\n",
|
| 1667 |
+
"10 prediction-url-cot-claude 0.846154 130.0\n",
|
| 1668 |
+
"1 claude-prediction-online 0.735849 53.0\n",
|
| 1669 |
+
"9 prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.659664 238.0\n",
|
| 1670 |
+
"0 claude-prediction-offline 0.591549 142.0"
|
| 1671 |
+
]
|
| 1672 |
+
},
|
| 1673 |
+
"execution_count": 99,
|
| 1674 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 1675 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 1676 |
+
}
|
| 1677 |
+
],
|
| 1678 |
+
"source": [
|
| 1679 |
+
"q_losing_perc"
|
| 1680 |
+
]
|
| 1681 |
+
},
|
| 1682 |
+
{
|
| 1683 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 1684 |
+
"execution_count": 103,
|
| 1685 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 1686 |
+
"outputs": [
|
| 1687 |
+
{
|
| 1688 |
+
"data": {
|
| 1689 |
+
"text/html": [
|
| 1690 |
+
"<div>\n",
|
| 1691 |
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"<style scoped>\n",
|
| 1692 |
+
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|
| 1693 |
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|
| 1694 |
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|
| 1695 |
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|
| 1696 |
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|
| 1697 |
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|
| 1698 |
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|
| 1699 |
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"\n",
|
| 1700 |
+
" .dataframe thead th {\n",
|
| 1701 |
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" text-align: right;\n",
|
| 1702 |
+
" }\n",
|
| 1703 |
+
"</style>\n",
|
| 1704 |
+
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
|
| 1705 |
+
" <thead>\n",
|
| 1706 |
+
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
|
| 1707 |
+
" <th>confidence</th>\n",
|
| 1708 |
+
" <th>0.00</th>\n",
|
| 1709 |
+
" <th>0.10</th>\n",
|
| 1710 |
+
" <th>0.20</th>\n",
|
| 1711 |
+
" <th>0.30</th>\n",
|
| 1712 |
+
" <th>0.40</th>\n",
|
| 1713 |
+
" <th>0.50</th>\n",
|
| 1714 |
+
" <th>0.55</th>\n",
|
| 1715 |
+
" <th>0.60</th>\n",
|
| 1716 |
+
" <th>0.65</th>\n",
|
| 1717 |
+
" <th>0.70</th>\n",
|
| 1718 |
+
" <th>0.75</th>\n",
|
| 1719 |
+
" <th>0.80</th>\n",
|
| 1720 |
+
" <th>0.85</th>\n",
|
| 1721 |
+
" <th>0.90</th>\n",
|
| 1722 |
+
" <th>0.95</th>\n",
|
| 1723 |
+
" <th>0.99</th>\n",
|
| 1724 |
+
" <th>1.00</th>\n",
|
| 1725 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1726 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1727 |
+
" <th>tool</th>\n",
|
| 1728 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1729 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1730 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1731 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1732 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1733 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1734 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1735 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1736 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1737 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1738 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1739 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1740 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1741 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1742 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1743 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1744 |
+
" <th></th>\n",
|
| 1745 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1746 |
+
" </thead>\n",
|
| 1747 |
+
" <tbody>\n",
|
| 1748 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1749 |
+
" <th>claude-prediction-offline</th>\n",
|
| 1750 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1751 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1752 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 1753 |
+
" <td>46.0</td>\n",
|
| 1754 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1755 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1756 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1757 |
+
" <td>87.0</td>\n",
|
| 1758 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1759 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1760 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1761 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1762 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1763 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1764 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1765 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1766 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1767 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1768 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1769 |
+
" <th>claude-prediction-online</th>\n",
|
| 1770 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1771 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1772 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1773 |
+
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
|
| 1774 |
+
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
|
| 1775 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1776 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1777 |
+
" <td>30.0</td>\n",
|
| 1778 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1779 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1780 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1781 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1782 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1783 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1784 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1785 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1786 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1787 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1788 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1789 |
+
" <th>prediction-offline</th>\n",
|
| 1790 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1791 |
+
" <td>267.0</td>\n",
|
| 1792 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1793 |
+
" <td>13.0</td>\n",
|
| 1794 |
+
" <td>302.0</td>\n",
|
| 1795 |
+
" <td>189.0</td>\n",
|
| 1796 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1797 |
+
" <td>231.0</td>\n",
|
| 1798 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1799 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1800 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1801 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1802 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1803 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1804 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1805 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1806 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1807 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1808 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1809 |
+
" <th>prediction-offline-sme</th>\n",
|
| 1810 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1811 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1812 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1813 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1814 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1815 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1816 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1817 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1818 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1819 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1820 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1821 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1822 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1823 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1824 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1825 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1826 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1827 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1828 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1829 |
+
" <th>prediction-online</th>\n",
|
| 1830 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1831 |
+
" <td>22.0</td>\n",
|
| 1832 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1833 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 1834 |
+
" <td>43.0</td>\n",
|
| 1835 |
+
" <td>23.0</td>\n",
|
| 1836 |
+
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
|
| 1837 |
+
" <td>670.0</td>\n",
|
| 1838 |
+
" <td>99.0</td>\n",
|
| 1839 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1840 |
+
" <td>76.0</td>\n",
|
| 1841 |
+
" <td>28.0</td>\n",
|
| 1842 |
+
" <td>55.0</td>\n",
|
| 1843 |
+
" <td>25.0</td>\n",
|
| 1844 |
+
" <td>11.0</td>\n",
|
| 1845 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1846 |
+
" <td>20.0</td>\n",
|
| 1847 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1848 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1849 |
+
" <th>prediction-online-sme</th>\n",
|
| 1850 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1851 |
+
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
|
| 1852 |
+
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
|
| 1853 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1854 |
+
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
|
| 1855 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1856 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1857 |
+
" <td>679.0</td>\n",
|
| 1858 |
+
" <td>234.0</td>\n",
|
| 1859 |
+
" <td>39.0</td>\n",
|
| 1860 |
+
" <td>149.0</td>\n",
|
| 1861 |
+
" <td>76.0</td>\n",
|
| 1862 |
+
" <td>109.0</td>\n",
|
| 1863 |
+
" <td>80.0</td>\n",
|
| 1864 |
+
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
|
| 1865 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1866 |
+
" <td>39.0</td>\n",
|
| 1867 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1868 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1869 |
+
" <th>prediction-request-rag</th>\n",
|
| 1870 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1871 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1872 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1873 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1874 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1875 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1876 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1877 |
+
" <td>25.0</td>\n",
|
| 1878 |
+
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
|
| 1879 |
+
" <td>48.0</td>\n",
|
| 1880 |
+
" <td>11.0</td>\n",
|
| 1881 |
+
" <td>36.0</td>\n",
|
| 1882 |
+
" <td>57.0</td>\n",
|
| 1883 |
+
" <td>16.0</td>\n",
|
| 1884 |
+
" <td>11.0</td>\n",
|
| 1885 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1886 |
+
" <td>20.0</td>\n",
|
| 1887 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1888 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1889 |
+
" <th>prediction-request-rag-claude</th>\n",
|
| 1890 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1891 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1892 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1893 |
+
" <td>32.0</td>\n",
|
| 1894 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1895 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1896 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1897 |
+
" <td>175.0</td>\n",
|
| 1898 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1899 |
+
" <td>513.0</td>\n",
|
| 1900 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1901 |
+
" <td>209.0</td>\n",
|
| 1902 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1903 |
+
" <td>40.0</td>\n",
|
| 1904 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1905 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1906 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1907 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1908 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1909 |
+
" <th>prediction-request-reasoning</th>\n",
|
| 1910 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1911 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1912 |
+
" <td>103.0</td>\n",
|
| 1913 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1914 |
+
" <td>58.0</td>\n",
|
| 1915 |
+
" <td>97.0</td>\n",
|
| 1916 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1917 |
+
" <td>315.0</td>\n",
|
| 1918 |
+
" <td>176.0</td>\n",
|
| 1919 |
+
" <td>441.0</td>\n",
|
| 1920 |
+
" <td>317.0</td>\n",
|
| 1921 |
+
" <td>339.0</td>\n",
|
| 1922 |
+
" <td>159.0</td>\n",
|
| 1923 |
+
" <td>44.0</td>\n",
|
| 1924 |
+
" <td>58.0</td>\n",
|
| 1925 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1926 |
+
" <td>97.0</td>\n",
|
| 1927 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1928 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1929 |
+
" <th>prediction-request-reasoning-claude</th>\n",
|
| 1930 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1931 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1932 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1933 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1934 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1935 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1936 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1937 |
+
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
|
| 1938 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1939 |
+
" <td>38.0</td>\n",
|
| 1940 |
+
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
|
| 1941 |
+
" <td>76.0</td>\n",
|
| 1942 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1943 |
+
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
|
| 1944 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1945 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1946 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1947 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1948 |
+
" <tr>\n",
|
| 1949 |
+
" <th>prediction-url-cot-claude</th>\n",
|
| 1950 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1951 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1952 |
+
" <td>1.0</td>\n",
|
| 1953 |
+
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
|
| 1954 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1955 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1956 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1957 |
+
" <td>40.0</td>\n",
|
| 1958 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1959 |
+
" <td>60.0</td>\n",
|
| 1960 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1961 |
+
" <td>22.0</td>\n",
|
| 1962 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1963 |
+
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
|
| 1964 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1965 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1966 |
+
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
|
| 1967 |
+
" </tr>\n",
|
| 1968 |
+
" </tbody>\n",
|
| 1969 |
+
"</table>\n",
|
| 1970 |
+
"</div>"
|
| 1971 |
+
],
|
| 1972 |
+
"text/plain": [
|
| 1973 |
+
"confidence 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 \\\n",
|
| 1974 |
+
"tool \n",
|
| 1975 |
+
"claude-prediction-offline 0.0 0.0 5.0 46.0 4.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1976 |
+
"claude-prediction-online 0.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 7.0 3.0 \n",
|
| 1977 |
+
"prediction-offline 0.0 267.0 2.0 13.0 302.0 189.0 \n",
|
| 1978 |
+
"prediction-offline-sme 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1979 |
+
"prediction-online 0.0 22.0 4.0 5.0 43.0 23.0 \n",
|
| 1980 |
+
"prediction-online-sme 1.0 27.0 10.0 0.0 71.0 2.0 \n",
|
| 1981 |
+
"prediction-request-rag 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 \n",
|
| 1982 |
+
"prediction-request-rag-claude 0.0 0.0 1.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1983 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning 0.0 3.0 103.0 1.0 58.0 97.0 \n",
|
| 1984 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1985 |
+
"prediction-url-cot-claude 0.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1986 |
+
"\n",
|
| 1987 |
+
"confidence 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 \\\n",
|
| 1988 |
+
"tool \n",
|
| 1989 |
+
"claude-prediction-offline 0.0 87.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1990 |
+
"claude-prediction-online 0.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1991 |
+
"prediction-offline 0.0 231.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1992 |
+
"prediction-offline-sme 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 1993 |
+
"prediction-online 8.0 670.0 99.0 2.0 76.0 28.0 \n",
|
| 1994 |
+
"prediction-online-sme 0.0 679.0 234.0 39.0 149.0 76.0 \n",
|
| 1995 |
+
"prediction-request-rag 0.0 25.0 5.0 48.0 11.0 36.0 \n",
|
| 1996 |
+
"prediction-request-rag-claude 0.0 175.0 0.0 513.0 0.0 209.0 \n",
|
| 1997 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning 0.0 315.0 176.0 441.0 317.0 339.0 \n",
|
| 1998 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.0 27.0 0.0 38.0 4.0 76.0 \n",
|
| 1999 |
+
"prediction-url-cot-claude 0.0 40.0 0.0 60.0 0.0 22.0 \n",
|
| 2000 |
+
"\n",
|
| 2001 |
+
"confidence 0.85 0.90 0.95 0.99 1.00 \n",
|
| 2002 |
+
"tool \n",
|
| 2003 |
+
"claude-prediction-offline 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 2004 |
+
"claude-prediction-online 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 2005 |
+
"prediction-offline 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 \n",
|
| 2006 |
+
"prediction-offline-sme 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 2007 |
+
"prediction-online 55.0 25.0 11.0 0.0 20.0 \n",
|
| 2008 |
+
"prediction-online-sme 109.0 80.0 6.0 0.0 39.0 \n",
|
| 2009 |
+
"prediction-request-rag 57.0 16.0 11.0 1.0 20.0 \n",
|
| 2010 |
+
"prediction-request-rag-claude 3.0 40.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 \n",
|
| 2011 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning 159.0 44.0 58.0 0.0 97.0 \n",
|
| 2012 |
+
"prediction-request-reasoning-claude 0.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 \n",
|
| 2013 |
+
"prediction-url-cot-claude 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 "
|
| 2014 |
+
]
|
| 2015 |
+
},
|
| 2016 |
+
"execution_count": 103,
|
| 2017 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 2018 |
+
"output_type": "execute_result"
|
| 2019 |
+
}
|
| 2020 |
+
],
|
| 2021 |
+
"source": [
|
| 2022 |
+
"all_q = winning_trades_percentage_bottom_50['title'].unique().tolist()\n",
|
| 2023 |
+
"q_losing = tools[tools['prompt_request'].isin(all_q)]\n",
|
| 2024 |
+
"q_losing.groupby(['tool'])['confidence'].value_counts().unstack().fillna(0)"
|
| 2025 |
+
]
|
| 2026 |
+
},
|
| 2027 |
+
{
|
| 2028 |
+
"cell_type": "code",
|
| 2029 |
+
"execution_count": null,
|
| 2030 |
+
"metadata": {},
|
| 2031 |
+
"outputs": [],
|
| 2032 |
+
"source": []
|
| 2033 |
+
}
|
| 2034 |
+
],
|
| 2035 |
+
"metadata": {
|
| 2036 |
+
"kernelspec": {
|
| 2037 |
+
"display_name": "akash",
|
| 2038 |
+
"language": "python",
|
| 2039 |
+
"name": "python3"
|
| 2040 |
+
},
|
| 2041 |
+
"language_info": {
|
| 2042 |
+
"codemirror_mode": {
|
| 2043 |
+
"name": "ipython",
|
| 2044 |
+
"version": 3
|
| 2045 |
+
},
|
| 2046 |
+
"file_extension": ".py",
|
| 2047 |
+
"mimetype": "text/x-python",
|
| 2048 |
+
"name": "python",
|
| 2049 |
+
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
|
| 2050 |
+
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
|
| 2051 |
+
"version": "3.10.14"
|
| 2052 |
+
}
|
| 2053 |
+
},
|
| 2054 |
+
"nbformat": 4,
|
| 2055 |
+
"nbformat_minor": 2
|
| 2056 |
+
}
|
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test.ipynb
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